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The US dollar inched higher after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell commented that it was time to taper. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart weighs on overall sentiment. Nonetheless, the pair has found some buying interest in the short-term over the daily support at 0.9150. A bullish RSI divergence was the first sign that the downward pressure might have eased for now. A break above 0.9200 would prompt sellers to cover, opening up the path to the key resistance at 0.9250. A bearish breakout would send the price to 0.9100. NZDUSD seeks support The US dollar recovers across the board thanks to rising Treasury yields. The Kiwi’s breakout above the daily resistance at 0.7150 may have put it back on a bullish trajectory. However, a repeatedly overbought RSI and its bearish divergence indicate that the bulls have struggled to follow up. Buyers are likely to be waiting on the sidelines and a pullback towards 0.7080 could be an opportunity. 0.7020 would be the second line of defense in case of a deeper correction. A rebound above 0.7185 may resume the rally. NAS 100 aims at an all-time high The Nasdaq 100 bounced higher as investors hope to see solid earnings from the Big Tech companies. The index has consolidated its recent gains after it broke above the daily resistance at 15400. The bulls have pushed above the major step at 15550 which was the origin of the September sell-off. This would take out the selling interest and put the uptrend back on track. The all-time high at 15700 is the next resistance. An overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback to 15280 where the bulls may look to accumulate.  

EURUSD cuts through resistanceThe euro surges as the market prices in inflation pressure despite the ECB’s dovish message.Bullish candles have pushed the single currency above the triple top (1.1665) which sits on the 30-day moving average, paving the way for a reversal. Strong momentum is a sign of short-covering from those caught on the wrong side of the market.An overbought RSI could temporarily limit the range of the rally. However, renewed optimism may send the pair to the daily resistance at 1.1750. 1.1620 is the support in case of a pullback.USDJPY tests demand zoneThe Japanese yen recouped losses after the BOJ sees a weak yen as positive for Japan’s economy. And the US dollar has come under pressure near a four-year high.An overbought RSI on the daily chart points to an overextension. On the hourly level, the pair has found bids around 113.30 near a previous consolidation range.A bearish breakout would test the round number at 113.00, which lies on the 20-day moving average and is critical in safeguarding the uptrend. The bulls need to lift 114.30 before they may resume the rally.US 30 pulls backs for supportThe Dow Jones consolidates as investors digest earnings near the all-time high.A breakout above the August peak at 35600 and a bullish MA cross from the daily timeframe indicate an acceleration on the upside as the rally continues.Pullbacks could be an opportunity to buy low. An overbought RSI has triggered a minor sell-off below 35600, shaking out weaker hands in the process. A drop below 35450 would lead to the psychological level of 35000. 35830 is now a fresh resistance.

One-sided S&P 500 session, perhaps a bit too much – the bulls are likely to face issues extending gains when VIX is examined. The stock market sentiment remains mixed, and one could easily be pardoned for expecting larger gains on yesterday‘s magnitute of the dollar slump. And long-dated Treasuries barely moved – their daily candle approximates nicely the volatility one as both give the impression of wanting to move a bit higher while their Thursday‘s move was a countertrend one.Not even value was able to surge past its Wednesday‘s setback, which makes me think the bears can return easily. At the same time, tech stepped into the void, and had a positive day, balancing the dowwnside S&P 500 risks significantly. The very short-term outlook in stocks is unclear, and choppy trading between yesterday‘s highs and 4,550 shouldn‘t be surprising today.At the same time, precious metals could have had a much stronger day – but the sentiment was risk-off in spite of the tanking dollar and doubted yields as the rising tech and gold at the expense of silver illustrate. Miners recent outperformance was absent just as much as commodities vigor with the exception of copper. And it‘s more celebrations in the red metal following its steep and far reaching correction, that‘s the part of missing ingredients as much as fresh inflation fears (yes, adding to risk-off mood, inflation expectations declined yesterday).All in all, it looks like a case of abundance of caution prior to next week‘s Fed, compounded by sluggish incoming data, where just cryptos are ready to move first.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 decisively reversed upwards, but the daily indicators barely moved – the consolidation doesn‘t look to be over.Credit MarketsHYG entirely reversed Wednesday‘s plunge but the low volume flashes amber light at least – the bulls are likely to stop for a moment.Gold, Silver and MinersGold upper knot doesn‘t bode as well as it did the prior Friday, and the same goes for miners. The yellow metal‘s strength was sold into, making it short-term problematic for the bulls.Crude OilCrude oil held $81 on not too shabby volume but the bulls are still on the defensive until $84 is overcome. When XLE starts outperforming VTV again, the outlook for black oil would improve considerably. Natgas falling this steeply yesterday isn‘t inspiring confidence either.CopperCopper finally reversed, and the upswing is a promising sign even though I would like to have seen higher volume. Again, the red metal remains well positioned to join in the commodities upswing once the taper announcement is absorbed.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin bulls are pausing while Ethereum ones keep running – cryptos are providing an encouraging sign (to be taken up by real assets) going into the Fed next week.SummaryChoppy trading in stocks is likely to continue even though 4,610s are closer than a break below 4,550s at the moment. Much nervousness in the markets before the coming Wednesday – cash is being raised while the dollar suffered in spite of daily move up in yields. Risk-off hasn‘t clearly retreated as seen in sectoral performance and VIX – time to be cautious while waiting out this soft patch in commodities that are most likely to return to scoring gains, accompanied by the retreating dollar.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCHF bounces off demand zoneThe US dollar inched higher after a solid core PCE reading in September. The pair is testing the major demand area from last August’s lows (0.9100).A bearish MA cross on the daily chart has dented buyers’ optimism. An oversold RSI may attract a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd while short-term sellers take some chips off the table.However, 0.9190 could be a challenging hurdle to lift as the bears would be eager to fade the rebound. A new round of sell-off would send the greenback to the daily support at 0.9020.EURGBP attempts to reboundThe euro found support from better-than-expected growth and inflation data. A bullish RSI divergence suggests that the downtrend may have lost its momentum.A break above 0.8470 has prompted sellers to cover some of their bets. But the RSI’s overbought situation has so far tempered the optimism.The bulls will need to lift offers around 0.8485 which sits on the 30-day moving average before they could turn the tables. Failing that, a drop below the demand zone between 0.8400 and 0.8420 would deepen the correction.GER 40 finds supportThe Dax 40 bounces back thanks to upbeat European stock earnings.A bullish MA cross on the daily chart is a sign of recovery. Though the index has hit a speed bump at 15775 which is a major resistance from last September’s sell-off.The drop below 15630 has led intraday buyers to bail out, driving short-term price action downward. As the RSI ventured into the oversold zone, the pullback attracted dip-buying interest at the lower range of the previous consolidation (15400). This is a congestion area along the MA cross.

  Stocks retraced their short-term decline yesterday, but today we may see a lower opening following the earnings releases. Is this a topping pattern? The S&P 500 index gained 0.98% on Thursday, Oct. 28, as it retraced its whole Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s decline to the support level of 4,550. It got back to the Tuesday’s record high of 4,598.53 yesterday. The daily close was just 2 points below that level. The stock market is still reacting to quarterly corporate earnings releases. Yesterday we got the releases from AAPL and AMZN, among others. But the first reaction to their numbers was negative. The market seems overbought in the short-term it is most likely fluctuating within a topping pattern. The nearest important support level is at 4,550, and the next support level is at 4,520-4,525, marked by the previous Wednesday’s daily gap up of 4,520.40-4,524.40. On the other hand, the resistance level is at around 4,600, marked by the new record high. Despite reaching new record highs, the S&P 500 remained below a very steep week-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Reached New Record! Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index was relatively weaker than the broad stock market recently, as it was still trading below the early September record high of around 15,700. But this week it rallied to the new record highs. The nearest important support level is now at 15,700, marked by the recent resistance level, as we can see on the daily chart: Dow Jones Is Relatively Weaker Again The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached the new record high of 35,892.92 on Tuesday and on Wednesday it sold off to around 35,500. Yesterday the blue-chip index didn’t retrace that decline. The support level remains at around 35,500-35,600, marked by the previous local highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Rallied Before Earnings, and Microsoft Went Hyperbolic Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple released its earnings after yesterday’s close and the first reaction was negative. But the stock gained 2.50% at yesterday in regular trading hours. The resistance level remains at $154-156. It is still trading below the record highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Now let’s take a look at the MSFT. It rallied after Tuesday’s quarterly earnings release and on Wednesday it reached the record high price of $326.10. The market remained above its month-long upward trend line. Microsoft extends its long-term hyperbolic move higher. This week it got close to the $2.5 trillion dollar market cap! So the question is how much higher can it get? And it’s already not that cheap at all with its price to earnings ratio of around 40. Conclusion The S&P 500 index retraced its Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s decline yesterday and it got close to the Tuesday’s record high of 4,598.53. For now, it looks like a consolidation following an uptrend. However, the market is still overbought and we may see a bigger downward correction. There may be a profit-taking action following quarterly earnings releases. Today the main indices are expected to open 0.2-0.8% lower after yesterday’s earnings releases from AAPL and AMZN, and we will likely see an intraday correction. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 got close to the record high yesterday but today it may retrace some of the advance. A speculative short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 3% or higher correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Not confirmed by bonds, the S&P 500 advances regardless – the daily yields retreat is powering tech while value goes nowhere. Higher beta sectors such as financials are sputtering, revealing the defensive nature of the stock market advance – at least to this degree, stocks and bonds are in tune. Yes, risk-off is winning these days, and it would be only up to VIX to join the fray, but the key volatility measure is likely to keep complacently trading around the 17 level. In other words, not too far from the bottom of its recent range, and not indicating imminent change of the bull market character.While we have seen much better market breadth readings in the years gone by (the narrow leadership is reminiscent perhaps of the late 1990s), there‘s no chart proof of the behemoths being in kind of getting really serious trouble (with the possible exception of Facebook). True, smallcaps have largely gone sideways over the many months, but midcaps are already breaking higher, and that won‘t be unnoticed by the Russell 2000 (soon to follow).The bears haven‘t thus far made any serious appearance, and 4,550s held with ease in spite of the dollar reversing Thursday‘s losses. All the more encouraging is the relative strength of both gold and silver when faced with one more daily decline in inflation expectations – as if balancing before the Fed act changes anything.I ask, how serious can they be about delivering on taper promises when prices increase relentlessly (look at Europe too), these are being blamed on supply chain bottlenecks without acknowledging their persistent and not transitory nature, and the real economy is markedly slowing down (not in a recession territory, but still)?Looking at commodities, we‘re reliving the 1970s, and cryptos are still the key beneficiary of monetary largesse – precious metals aren‘t a dead asset class in the least, they just frontrunned it all and peaked in August 2020 as I alerted you to back then. Fresh upswing is in the making.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 once again decisively reversed upwards, and even though the daily indicators are weakening, the rally can easily go on. Dips are to be bought.Credit MarketsHYG keeps acting weak, but this is being overlooked by stocks as tech remains driven by NYFANG.Gold, Silver and MinersGold‘s lower knot indicates accumulation, and miners reversing higher would be a great confirmation. Regardless, such a result when dollar rose steeply and yields with inflation expectations retreated, is encouraging.Crude OilCrude oil again held $81, looks set to return above $84 again. XOI and XLE weakness has to be understood in terms of the challenged VTV, and isn‘t here to stay.CopperCopper is providing a buying opportunity, and looks likely to join other base metals (especially alluminum) and broader commodity index strength as agrifoods wake up too.Bitcoin and EthereumThe Bitcoin and Ethereum upswings can go on – it looks to be a question of a relatively short time when cryptos are done with the sideways correction.SummaryS&P 500 indeed got at 4,610s instead of suffering setbacks, and the same holds true for real assets next. Across the board, these have performed well in spite of the USD upswing and decreasing inflation expectations, which I chalk down to pre-Wednesday positioning. Therefore, I‘m taking the high beta weakness with a pinch of salt, and the same goes for precious metals or the economic cycle sensitive copper. As for oil, the U.S. economy can (and will have to) withstand prices higher than $90 as 2022 arrives.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCAD consolidates at 4-month lowThe US dollar retreats ahead of this week’s FOMC as traders await further catalysts. Price action has stabilized above 1.2300, a major demand zone from last summer.1.2430 from the latest sell-off is a key resistance as it coincides with the 20-day moving average. The current consolidation suggests the market’s indecision, though overall sentiment remains bearish.A deeper correction would send the greenback to 1.2150. A bullish breakout on the other hand may challenge the supply area around 1.2550.EURJPY tests key supportThe euro struggles to bounce higher after Germany’s lackluster retail sales in September.The pair has come under pressure at 133.45 near June’s peak. The subsequent retracement has met some bids at 131.60 when the RSI dipped into the oversold territory.The triple test of the support level indicates solid buying interest. However, the bulls will need to push above 132.80 before the uptrend could resume.On the downside, a bearish breakout would extend the sideways action towards 130.80 which sits on the 30-day moving average.US 100 falls back for supportThe Nasdaq 100 surges to a new all-time high as investors expect the strong growth trend to continue. The break above the previous peak at 15700 has put the index back on an upward trajectory.A bullish MA cross on the daily chart is a confirmation of the market’s optimism. However, a brief pullback is necessary to let the bulls catch their breath.15620 is the immediate support. Further down, 15280 is key daily support on the 20-day moving average. The psychological level of 16000 would be the next target rebound.

  As a new month begins, the downtrend in the GDX and GDXJ should resume. When will a new buying opportunity finally present itself? Let’s compare the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, the GDX ETF reversed sharply after reaching its 200-day moving average and a confluence of bearish indicators signaled a similar outcome. For context, I wrote on Oct. 25: Small breakout mirrors what we witnessed during the senior miners’ downtrend in late 2020/early 2021. Moreover, when the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) approached 70 (overbought conditions) back then, the highs were in (or near) and sharp reversals followed. Furthermore, after a sharp intraday reversal materialized on Oct. 22, the about-face is similar to the major reversal that we witnessed in early August. On top of that, with the GDX ETF’s stochastic indicator also screaming overbought conditions, the senior miners are likely to move lower sooner rather than later. Also, please note that the GDX ETF reversed right after moving close to its 200-day moving average, which is exactly what stopped it in early August. Yes – that’s another link between now and early August. And after declining sharply on Oct. 28 and Oct. 29, the senior miners further cemented their underperformance of gold. Moreover, with relative underperformance often a precursor to much larger declines, the outlook for the GDX ETF remains quite bearish. Please see below: As further evidence, the GDX ETF’s four-hour chart offers some important insights. To explain, the senior miners failed to hold their early September highs and last week’s plunge removed any and all doubt. Likewise, the GLD ETF suffered a sharp drawdown and its recent breakout was also invalidated. Furthermore, my three-day rule for confirming breakouts/breakdowns proved prescient once again. Conversely, investors that piled into mining stocks are likely regretting their decision to act on unconfirmed signals. And as we look ahead, the technicals imply that caution is warranted and more downside is likely for the GDX ETF. As for the GDXJ ETF, the gold junior miners suffered a similar swoon last week. For context, I warned of the prospective reversal on Oct. 25. I wrote: The junior miners’ RSI also signals overbought conditions and history has been unkind when similar developments have occurred. Moreover, the GDXJ ETF’s recent rally follows the bearish patterns that we witnessed in late May and in early 2021. Likewise, the intraday reversal on Oct. 22 mirrors the bearish reversal from early August and a confluence of indicators support a continuation of the downtrend over the coming weeks. And as we begin a new month, the GDXJ ETF’s downtrend should resume and a retracement to the ~35 level will likely materialize in the coming months. Please see below: Finally, while I’ve been warning for months that the GDXJ/GDX ratio was destined for devaluation, the ratio has fallen precipitously in 2021. And after the recent short-term rally, the ratio’s RSI has reached extremely elevated levels (nearly 73) and similar periods of euphoria have preceded major drawdowns (marked with the black vertical dashed lines below). To that point, the ratio showcased a similar overbought reading in early 2020 – right before the S&P 500 plunged. On top of that, the ratio is still below its mid-to-late 2020 lows and its mid-2021 lows. As a result, the GDXJ ETF will likely underperform the GDX ETF over the next few months. It’s likely to underperform silver in the near term as well. The bottom line? If the ratio is likely to continue its decline, then on a short-term basis we can expect it to trade at 1.27 or so. If the general stock market plunges, the ratio could move much lower, but let’s assume that stocks decline moderately or that they do nothing or rally slightly. They’ve done all the above recently, so it’s natural to expect that this will be the case. Consequently, the trend in the GDXJ to GDX ratio would also be likely to continue, and thus expecting a move to about 1.26 - 1.27 seems rational. If the GDX is about to decline to approximately $28 before correcting, then we might expect the GDXJ to decline to about $28 x 1.27 = $35.56 or $28 x 1.26 = $35.28. In other words, ~$28 in the GDX is likely to correspond to about $35 in the GDXJ. Is there any technical support around $35 that would be likely to stop the decline? Yes. It’s provided by the late-Feb. 2020 low ($34.70) and the late-March high ($34.84). There’s also the late-April low at $35.63. Consequently, it seems that expecting the GDXJ to decline to about $35 is justified from the technical point of view as well. In conclusion, mining stocks reprised their role as ‘The Boy Who Cried Wolf.’ And after overzealous investors rushed to their defense last week, another false alarm led to another bout of disappointment. Moreover, with the technical and fundamental backdrops for gold, silver and mining stocks continuing to deteriorate, lower lows should materialize over the medium term. As a result, we may have to wait until 2022 before reliable buying opportunities emerge once again. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, leg analysis:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Daily chart as of October 25th, 2021.From a pure price perception, it might seem that the consistency bitcoin holds in price bubbles might be of the same origin, but they are not. In 2009, the value of the coin was zero, and fans exchanged it more like reminding of a seedy Star Wars bar exchange of true fans for a new idea, technology, beliefs, and freedom. Even so, bubbles arose a year later, and the price was driven by extreme supply and demand imbalances due to ill-liquidity when news hit the media.Since these times, we have seen all sorts of traders, speculators, investors, banks, hedge funds, governments join the speculation in a profitable market. Each with their specific mindset, interests, and trading psychology. The latest shift is now the race of governments getting a hold on the worldwide dominance reign. They will be true hodlers. Before that last influx, the bitcoin market was dominated by pure speculators for the most part. In a sense, they were forced into this market to stay competitive. Wide swings were the result since there was little incentive to stay in this game for the long term or, in other words, taking the risk on the large downswings.One first step, identifying in which market and cycle one is competing, are comparing up-legs in size (percentage) and steepness (time).The daily chart above shows such measurements of the last two significant moves in bitcoin this year.It has taken bitcoin only three months to more than double in price.BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Projections:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 26th, 2021.With governments and the wider population now being the last to come to the party, we will see a shift in the trading behavior of bitcoin. This needs adjustment in one’s trading style to be part of this craze for the virtual, decentralized future.One such shift in the process may be a reduction of retracements depth within the second leg from a weekly perspective. We have drawn a projection of the second leg highly conservative in the chart above. Conservative, since second legs are typically longer, and we only assumed an identical extension to the first leg (1=2=3 in length and angle). BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, time accuracy:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 26th, 2021.Bitcoins’ childhood days have long passed. Seedy bar purchases have changed for high liquidity and professional exchanges with advanced order execution functionality. The big guns sit on the table, and as such, trading has shaped up. The individual is now playing against the best in the world, like in any other asset class, and risk should be perceived as such.Nevertheless, a larger time frame play for wealth preservation and a hedge against inflation is controllable in risk. Market participation analysis allows for a better grip on what to expect and scales in on targets from a time perspective. The above monthly chart illustrates our view of a possible future. The logarithmic chart shows best what inherent strength bitcoin possesses.Bitcoin´s trading psychology:The largest group that is not invested in bitcoin yet is the more significant part of average citizens. Consequently, we will find ourselves in an extreme supply demand imbalance due to bitcoins fixed limit of 21 million coins. More importantly, we will discover new trading behavior with a new group participating, with new psychology. These purchases will be made by amateurs who are motivated by fear more than greed. This market participant will be a long-term speculator trying to hold on to his investment versus making a quick buck. We anticipate more moderate overall retracements percentagewise. As well, we expect steeper legs up. These will result in a different system needed to participate in a market with low-risk entry points.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Korbinian Koller|October 26th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

EURJPY tests key support. USDCAD consolidates at 4-month low 1.2430 from the latest sell-off is a key resistance as it coincides with the 20-day moving average. The current consolidation suggests the market’s indecision, though overall sentiment remains bearish. A deeper correction would send the greenback to 1.2150. A bullish breakout on the other hand may challenge the supply area around 1.2550. EURJPY tests key support The euro struggles to bounce higher after Germany’s lackluster retail sales in September. The pair has come under pressure at 133.45 near June’s peak. The subsequent retracement has met some bids at 131.60 when the RSI dipped into the oversold territory. The triple test of the support level indicates solid buying interest. However, the bulls will need to push above 132.80 before the uptrend could resume. On the downside, a bearish breakout would extend the sideways action towards 130.80 which sits on the 30-day moving average. US 100 falls back for support The Nasdaq 100 surges to a new all-time high as investors expect the strong growth trend to continue. The break above the previous peak at 15700 has put the index back on an upward trajectory. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart is a confirmation of the market’s optimism. However, a brief pullback is necessary to let the bulls catch their breath. 15620 is the immediate support. Further down, 15280 is key daily support on the 20-day moving average. The psychological level of 16000 would be the next target rebound.

The average investor is news-driven. As much as the Federals Reserve  (the Fed) might be criticized, this large investor group is not commonly doubting news. In other words, it has generally believed the Fed’s narrative that inflation is transitory. The bad news is rarely released shortly before Christmas. However, it would not surprise if tapering started in early 2022. And maybe not just begin but be more aggressive throughout the year as expected. With this, the narrative will change from a “we are not worried, it is transitory” to a “we need to deal with” regarding inflation. Therefore, this could easily be the fire to the fuse of the Silver rocket. We now see early signs of such a lift-off in price in recent silver price movements. Silver’s fuse is about to be lit. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, low-risk entry points: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of October 30th, 2021. It isn’t only that the overall narrative on transitory inflation is starting to get holes. We like the silver play, for instance because gold is somewhat in the limelight in battle with bitcoin. Consequently, allowing for silver to shine while it is typically in the shadow. On top of it all, we find clear evidence that commodities with industrial use are likely in a long term bull market. This is a play where everything is coming together. A multi stream both in fundamental and technical edges stack upon each other. As of right now, we have identified four low-risk entry points on the daily silver chart, which are marked in bright green horizontal lines. We would take off 50% of the position near the US$26 mark to mitigate risk (see our quad exit strategy). Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, good risk reward ratio: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of October 30th, 2021. The weekly chart offers a low-risk opportunity as well. We illustrated above a play that assumes an entry point in the lower third quadrant of the yellow marked sideways zone. It would provide for a risk/reward-ratio between 1:1 and 1:2 towards the financing point. As well we assume an exit of half of the position at the top near US$28 of the yellow sideways channel (see our quad exit strategy). With two more exits of each 25% of total trade equity at targets US$34.83 and US$48.72, we find the weekly play to be conducive to our low-risk policy.  Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, favorable probabilities: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of October 30th, 2021. With its most considerable weight, the monthly chart provides the necessary overview. It shows how likely a success rate to a long-term play outcome is. We find three dominant aspects supporting our aim for a bullish long-term play. Trend: The linear regression channel is marked in diagonal lines (red, blue, green). It shows a clearly bullish trend with a high likelihood of continuation. Support: The Ichimoku cloud analysis provides solid evidence of support to the recently established bullish tone in silver. Probabilities: Price highs from 1980 to 2011 built a double top price formation. As a result, it prevented prices from getting higher than the price zone marked with a white box. The third attempt of price reaching this price zone nevertheless has a much higher statistical probability of penetrating this distribution zone and allowing the price to go higher. Silver’s fuse is about to be lit: We find ourselves in challenging times. Certainly, not only in market play. One of the essential pillars to come out ahead is bending in the wind and staying flexible. Should the FED indeed raise interest rates to a degree non-reflected in the anticipated market price of speculators and come as a surprise, we might see a stock market decline next year of a substantial percentage. Consequently, this would temporarily drag silver prices down as well. We share methods in our free Telegram channel to build low-risk positions within the market that reduce risk through partial profit-taking. Our quad exit strategy allows us to hedge physical acquisitions by trading around these positions on smaller time frames in the silver paper market. Our approach provides a way to maneuver through a delicate environment to hedge against inflation and preserve wealth. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

S&P 500 quick downswing attempt indeed didn‘t come – fresh highs were confirmed by bonds. Even if just on a daily basis, that‘s where the bias is – long stocks still, but with a wary eye as Treasuries and corporate bonds need to kick in on a more than daily basis. I‘m taking it as that the bullish expectations for today are really high – so much so that better than expected non-farm employment change resulted in a sell the news reaction. So, how does that line up with today‘s FOMC? Dovish undertones are obviously expected – at least in attempting to sweep the hot inflation under the rug, spinning it somehow else than with the tired transitory horse. Discredited one too. So, how would the taper message be delivered, and could it go as far as $15bn a month asset purchase reduction while avoiding rate hike mentions as much as possible? Even if $15bn is indeed the announced figure, I‘m looking for the Fed to soften it before it can run its course, i.e. before 2H 2022 arrives – the economy isn‘t in such a great shape to take it, and the fresh spending bill (whatever the price tag), needs central bank‘s support too. Let‘s recall my yesterday‘s words about how that‘s likely to translate into market moves: (…) Overall, stocks haven‘t made much progress, and are vulnerable to a quick downswing attempt, which probably though wouldn‘t come today as the VIX doesn‘t look to favor it. Wednesday, that could be another matter entirely. Still, there is no imminent change to the stock bull run on the horizon – the focus remains on ongoing Fed accomodations. Tomorrow‘s Fed taper announcement wouldn‘t change a lot – so much can (and will) happen in the meantime, allowing them to backpedal on the projections, making rate hikes even more of a pipe dream. The Fed isn‘t taking inflation seriously, hiding behind the transitory sophistry, and that‘s one of the key drivers of rates marching up, rising commodities, and surging cryptos. Look for more oil and natgas appreciation while copper goes up again too. Precious metals are still waiting for a catalyst (think dollar weakening when even rising rates won‘t provide much support, and inflation expectations trending up faster than yields) – a paradigm shift in broader recognition of Fed obfuscation and monetary policy being behind the curve. The Fed turning even more dovish than expected, would light the fireworks – they‘re likely to pay lip service to inflation similarly to Jun, but it won‘t pack the same punch. Inflation expectations haven‘t peaked, and the yield curve is about to steepen again as rates would mostly be moving higher. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 keeps rising, and is setting itself up for a brief disappointment. We aren‘t though making a top with capital t. Credit Markets Universal risk-on move in the credit market, on volume that didn‘t disappoint, which just confirms the bulls‘ overall technical advantage. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold downswing left a lot to be desired – we aren‘t likely staring at a true slide next. I actually look for silver (and the cyclically sensitive commodities such as copper, and also oil) to outperform gold in the wake of the Fed move. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t move much on a closing basis, but the bulls need more time to retake the reins. Copper Copper really doesn‘t want to decline, and remains slated to play catch up to the CRB Index again. The improving bullish outlook requires just time now – selling volume is drying up, tellingly... Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bulls haven‘t yielded, and keep the overall technical advantage. Should prices dip below $58K in BTC without solid buying materializing, now that would make me wary. But the Fed won‘t be hawkish., no. Summary Potential S&P 500 bear raid is approaching, and the more dovish the Fed would be, the shallower dip in stocks can be expected. Yes, the bulls keep having the upper hand – credit markets have behaved. As mentioned yesterday, that‘s the big picture view - the very initial reaction to taper announcement would likely be reversed higher. Cryptos, oil, copper would react best, with precious metals figuring it out only later – unless the Fed negatively surprises, in which case cryptos would be prone to wilder swings (but not downside reversal in earnest). Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Three main forces are shaping the business and investment climate:  Surging energy prices, a dramatic backing up of short-term interest rates in Anglo-American countries, and the persistence of supply chain disruptions.  The US and Europe have likely passed peak growth.  Fiscal policy will be less accommodative, and financial conditions have tightened. Japan appears to be getting a handle on Covid and after a slow start.  Its vaccination rate has surpassed the US.  The lifting of the formal state of emergency and a hefty dose of fiscal stimulus is expected to be delivered in the coming months. Many developing economies have already lifted rates, some like Brazil and Russia, aggressively so.  They will likely finish earlier too.      US light sweet crude oil rose nearly 12% last month, even though US inventories rose last month for the first time since April.   The price of WTI rose almost 10% in September.  Statistically, the rise in oil prices is strongly correlated with the increase in inflation expectations.  OPEC+ will boost supplies by another 400k barrels a day at the start of November and is committed to the same monthly increase well into 2022.   At the same time, new Covid infections in several Asia-Pacific countries, including China, Singapore, and Australia, warn of the risk of continued supply-chain disruptions.  In Europe, Germany and the UK recently reported the most cases since the spring. Belgium is tightening curbs.  Bulgaria is seeing a rise in infections, and Romania was at full capacity in its intensive care facilities.  The fact that Latvia lags the EU in vaccination at about 50% leaves it vulnerable.  The US may be lagging behind Europe, and the next four-six weeks will be critical.  Roughly 40% of Americans are not fully vaccinated.   The rise in price pressures and the gradual acknowledgment by many central bankers that inflation may be more persistent have helped spur a significant backing up of short-term rates in the Anglo-American economies. The ultimately deflationary implications of the surge in energy prices through demand destruction and the implications for less monetary and fiscal support still seem under-appreciated. Yet, the market has priced in aggressive tightening of monetary policy over the next 12 months.   The focus of the foreign exchange market seems squarely on monetary policy.  From a high level, the central banks perceived to be ahead in the monetary cycle have seen stronger currencies. The likely laggards, like the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the ECB, have currencies that underperformed.  Norway and New Zealand have already raised rates and are expected to do so again in November.    Of course, as you drill down, discrepancies appear.  In October, the Australian dollar was the top performer among the major currencies with a 4% gain.  It edged out the New Zealand dollar and the Norwegian krone, whose central banks are ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia.  The RBA has pushed against market speculation that has 90 bp of tightening priced into 12-month swaps.  The Australian dollar outperformed sterling by about 2.5% in October even though the Bank of England has been so hawkish with its comments that the market had little choice but to price in a high probability of a hike as early as the November meeting.  In fact, the market has the UK's base rate above 50 bp by the end of Q1 22.  This is important because in its forward guidance that BOE has identified that as the threshold for it to begin unwinding QE by stopping reinvesting maturing issues.  Interestingly enough, when the BOE meets on March 17 next year, it will have a sizeable GBP28 bln maturity in its portfolio.   In an unusual quirk of the calendar, the Federal Reserve meets before the release of the October jobs report.  All indications point to the start of the tapering process.  It is currently buying $120 bln a month of Treasuries ($80 bln) and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities.  The pace of the reduction of purchases is a function of the duration, and the Fed has clearly indicated the tapering will be complete around mid-year. That suggests reducing the purchases by about $15 bln a month.  Chair Powell indicated that unlike the Bank of England, the Fed will stop its bond purchases before raising rates. A faster pace of tapering would be a hawkish signal as it would allow for an earlier rate hike.  The gap between when the tapering ends and the first rate hike does not appear predetermined. Powell has talked about the economic prerequisites, which emphasize a full and inclusive labor market in the current context. The Fed funds futures entirely discount a 25 hike in July, with the risk of a move in June.  Comments by several officials hint that the Fed may drop its characterization of inflation as transitory, which would also be understood as a hawkish development.   Partly owing to the extended emergency in Japan, it is marching to the beat of a different drummer than the other high-income countries. Inflation is not a problem.  In September, the headline rate rose to 0.2% year-over-year, the highest since August 2020.  However, this is a function of fresh food and energy prices, without which the consumer inflation stuck below zero (-0.5%).  In December 2019, it stood at 0.9%.  In addition, while fiscal policy will be less accommodative in Europe and the US, a sizeable supplemental budget (~JPY30 trillion) is expected to be unveiled later this year.   After expanding by 1.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, the Chinese economy slowed to a crawl of 0.2% in Q3, which was half the pace expected by economists. Some of the decline in economic activity resulted from the virus and natural disasters (floods). Still, some of it stemmed from an effort to cut emissions in steel and other sectors.  The problems in China's property development space, accounting for a large part of its high-yield bond market,  unsettled global markets briefly.  Talk of a Lehman-like event seems a gross exaggeration. Still, given the sector's importance to China's economy (30% broadly measured) and the use of real estate as an investment vehicle, it may precipitate a structural shift in the economy.   The Communist Party and the state are reasserting control over the economy's private sector and the internet and social network.  It has also weighed in on family decisions, like the number of children one has, how long a minor should play video games, the length of men's hair, what kind of attributes entertainers should have, and appropriate songs to be played with karaoke.   It seems to be reminiscent of part of the Cultural Revolution and a broader economic reform agenda like Deng Xiaoping did in the late 1970s and Zhu Rongji in the 1990s.  At the same time, Beijing is wrestling with reducing emissions and soaring energy prices, which also dampen growth. Even though consumer inflation is not a problem in China (0.7% year-over-year in September), Chinese officials still seem reluctant to launch new stimulative fiscal or monetary initiatives. Moreover, new outbreaks of the virus could exacerbate the supply chain disruptions and delays fuel inflation in many countries.  The aggressiveness in which investors are pricing G10 tightening weighed on emerging market currencies in October.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index fell by almost 0.8% last month after falling 2.9% in September, the largest decline since March 2020.  The continued politicization of Turkey's monetary policy and the aggressive easing saw the lira tumble nearly 7.5% last month, which brings the year-to-date depreciation to 22.5%.   On the other hand, Brazil's central bank has aggressively hiked rates, and the 150 bp increase in late October brought this year's tightening to 575 bp and lifting the Selic to 7.75%.  Yet, it is still below the inflation rate (10.34% October), and the government has lost the confidence of domestic and international business.  The Brazilian real fell nearly 3.5% last month to bring the year-to-date loss to almost 7.8%.   Our GDP-weighted currency basket, the Bannockburn World Currency Index, snapped a two-month decline and rose by 0.35%.  The rise in the index reflects the outperformance of the currencies against the dollar.  The currencies from the G10 countries, including the dollar, account for about two-thirds of the index, and emerging markets, including China, the other third.  The yen was the weakest of the majors, falling 2.3%.  It has a weighting of 7.5% in the BWCI.   Among the emerging market currencies in our GDP-weighted currency index, the Brazilian real's 3.4% decline was the largest, but its 2.1% weighting minimizes the drag.  It was nearly offset by the Russian rouble's 2.5% advance.  It has a 2.2% weighting in our basket.  The Chinese yuan, which has a 21.8% share, rose by 0.6%.      Dollar:   The market is pricing in very aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve.  As recently as late September, only half of the Fed officials anticipated a hike in 2022.  The December 2022 Fed funds futures are pricing in a little more than two hikes next year. More than that, the market is discounting the first hike in June next year, implying a transition from completing the bond-buying to raising rates with no time gap.  The disappointing 2% Q3 GDP exaggerated the slowing of the world's largest economy.  We note that the supply-side challenges in vehicle production halved the growth rate.  Growth is likely to re-accelerate in Q4, but we continue to believe that the peak has passed.  While inflation is elevated, the pace of increase slowed in Q3.  Consider that the PCE deflator that the Fed targets rose at an annualized rate of 4.0% in Q3 after a 5.6% pace in Q2.  The core rate slowed to an annualized pace of 3.3% last quarter, half of the speed in the previous three months.  The infrastructure spending plans have been reduced, and some of the proposed tax hikes, including on corporations, appear to be dropped as part of the compromise among the Democratic Party.   Euro:  For most of Q3, the euro has been in a $1.17-$1.19 trading range.  It broke down in late September, and was unable to recapture it in October.  Instead, it recorded a new low for the year near $1.1525.  A convincing break of the $1.1500 area could signal a move toward $1.1300. The single currency drew little support because growth differentials swung in its favor in Q3:  the Eurozone expanded by 2.2% quarter-over-quarter while the US grew 2% at an annualized pace.  The ECB is sticking to its analysis that the rise in inflation is due to transitory factors while recognizing that energy prices may prove more sticky.  That said, news that Gazprom may boost gas sales to Europe after it finishes replenishing Russian inventories after the first week in November, natural gas prices fall at the end of October.  After the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program ends next March, decisions about the asset purchases next year will be announced at the December ECB meeting along with updated forecasts.   (October indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses)   Spot: $1.1560 ($1.1580) Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.1579 ($1.1660)  One-month forward  $1.1568 ($1.1585)    One-month implied vol  5.1%  (5.1%)         Japanese Yen:  The dollar rose 2.3% against the yen in October to bring the year-to-date gain to nearly 9.5%.  The Bank of Japan will lag behind most high-income countries in the tightening cycle, and the higher US yields are a crucial driver of the greenback's gains against the yen.  Japan's headline inflation and core measure, which only excludes fresh food, may be rising, but they are barely above zero and, in any event, are due to the surge in energy prices. In response to the weakening yen, Japanese investors appear to have boosted their investment in foreign bonds, while foreign investors increased their holdings of Japanese stocks.  The LDP and Komeito maintained a majority in the lower chamber of the Diet. A sizeable stimulus supplemental budget is expected to help strengthen the economic recovery now that the formal emergencies have been lifted.  In Q3, the dollar traded mainly between JPY109 and JPY111.  It traded higher in the second half of September rising to nearly JPY112.00.  The dollar-yen exchange rate often seems to be rangebound, and when it looks like it is trending, it is frequently moving to a new range.  We have suggested the upper end of the new range may initially be the JPY114.50-JPY115.00.  The four-year high set last month was about JPY114.70.  A move above JPY115.60 could target the JPY118.50 area.     Spot: JPY113.95 (JPY111.30)       Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast JPY112.98 (JPY111.00)      One-month forward JPY113.90 (JPY111.25)    One-month implied vol  6.4% (5.6%)   British Pound:  Sterling rallied around 4 1/3 cents from the late September low near $1.34.  The momentum stalled in front of the 200-day moving average (~$1.3850).  After several attempts, the market appeared to give up.  We anticipate a move into the $1.3575-$1.3625 initially, and possibly a return toward the September low. The implied yield of the December 2021 short-sterling interest rate futures rose from 22 bp at the end of September to 47 bp at the end of October as the market.  It was encouraged by Bank of England officials to prepare for a hike at the meeting on November 4, ostensibly while it is still providing support via Gilt purchases.  If there is a surprise here, it could be that, given the unexpected softening of September CPI and the fifth consecutive monthly decline in retail sales, rising Covid cases, that the BOE chooses to take the more orthodox route.  This would entail ending its bond purchases, as two MPC members argued (dissented) at the previous meeting and holding off lifting rates a little longer.        Spot: $1.3682 ($1.3475)    Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.3691 ($1.3630)  One-month forward $1.3680 ($1.3480)   One-month implied vol 6.8% (7.1%)      Canadian Dollar:  The three drivers for the exchange rate moved in the Canadian dollar's favor in October and helped it snap a four-month slide against the US dollar.  First, the general appetite for risk was strong, as illustrated by the strength of global stocks and the record highs in the US.  Second, the premium Canada pays on two-year money more than doubled last month to almost 60 bp from 25 bp at the end of September.  Third, commodity prices in general and oil, in particular, extended their recent gains.  The CRB Index rose 3.8% last month, the 11th monthly increase in the past 12, to reach seven-year highs.  The Bank of Canada unexpectedly stopped its new bond purchases and appeared to signal it would likely raise rates earlier than it had previously indicated.  The swaps market is pricing 125 bp of rate hikes over the next 12 months, with the first move next March or April.  Still, the US dollar's downside momentum stalled near CAD1.2300.  There is scope for a corrective phase that could carry the greenback into the CAD1.2475-CAD1.2500 area.     Spot: CAD1.2388 (CAD 1.2680)  Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast CAD1.2395 (CAD1.2580) One-month forward CAD1.2389 (CAD1.2685)    One-month implied vol 6.2% (6.9%)      Australian Dollar:  The Aussie's 4% gain last month snapped a four-month, roughly 6.5% downdraft.  Despite RBA Governor Lowe's guidance that the central bank does not anticipate that the condition to hike rates will exist before 2024 is being challenged by the market.  Underlying inflation rose above 2% in Q3. The central bank's failure to continue defending the 10 bp target of the April 2024 bond spurred speculation that it would be formally abandoned at the November 2 policy meeting.  The RBA's inaction unsettled the debt market.  The two-year yield soared almost 70 bp last month, and the 10-year yield rose nearly 60 bp.  Although the RBA could have handled the situation better, New Zealand rates jumped even more.  Its two-year yield jumped 80 bp while the 10-year yield surged by 58 bp.  Last month, the Australian dollar's rally took it from around $0.7200 to slightly more than $0.7550, where it seemed to stall, just in front of the 200-day moving average.  We suspect the October rally has run its course and see the Aussie vulnerable to a corrective phase that could push it back toward $0.7370-$0.7400.  The New Zealand dollar has also stalled ($0.7220), and we see potential toward $0.7050.       Spot:  $0.7518 ($0.7230)        Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast $0.7409 ($0.7290)      One-month forward  $0.7525 ($0.7235)     One-month implied vol 9.1  (9.0%)        Mexican Peso:  The peso eked out a minor gain against the dollar last month.  However, the nearly 0.4% gain understated the swings in the exchange rate last month.  The dollar's recovery seen in the second half of September from almost MXN19.85 to nearly MXN20.40 at the end of the month was extended to a seven-month high around MXN20.90 on October 12.  It then proceeded to fall to almost MXN20.12 before the greenback was bought again.  A move above the MXN20.60 area now would likely signal a test on last month's high and possibly higher. Recall that the dollar peaked this year's peak set in March was near MXN21.6350. The economy unexpectedly contracted in Q3  by 0.2% (quarter-over-quarter).  Nevertheless, with the year-over-year CPI at 6% in September, Banxico will see little choice but to hike rates at the November 11 meeting. The market expects a 25 bp increase.  A 50 bp hike is more likely than standing pat.       Spot: MXN20.56 (MXN20.64)   Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast  MXN20.42 (MXN20.41)   One-month forward  MXN20.65 (MXN20.74)     One-month implied vol 9.6% (11.0%)      Chinese Yuan: Our starting point is the yuan's exchange rate is closely managed.  The fact that the yuan rose to four-month highs against the dollar and a five-year high against the currency basket (CFETS) that the PBOC tracks imply a tacit acceptance.  While it is tempting for observers to link the appreciation to securing an advantage as it secures energy supplies and other commodities, we note that the yuan's gains are too small (0.6% last month and less than 2% year-to-date) to be impactful.  We suspect that the dollar's recent weakness against the yuan will be unwound shortly.  The US government continues to press its concerns about the risk for investors in Chinese companies listed in the US and American companies operating in China. At the same time, the FTSE Russell flagship benchmark began including mainland bonds for the first time.  China's 10-year government bond is the only one among the large bond markets where the yield has declined so far this year (~16 bp).  On the other hand, Chinese stocks have underperformed.  That said, some investors see this underperformance as a new buying opportunity.  The NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index that tracks Chinese companies listed in the US fell by 30% in Q3 and gained 5% in October, its best month since February.  Lastly, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party meets November 8-11 this year, a prelude to the important National Party Congress in 2022 that is expected to formally signal the third term for President Xi.     Spot: CNY6.4055 (CNY6.4450) Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast  CNY6.4430 (CNY6.4470)  One-month forward CNY6.4230 (CNY6.4725)    One-month implied vol  3.5% (3.4%)    Disclaimer

EURUSD claws back lossesThe US dollar fell after the Federal Reserve called for patience on raising interest rates.The pair has met strong resistance at 1.1690, a previous demand zone on the daily chart that has turned into a supply one. The latest sell-off has been contained by 1.1535, near the base of the recent rebound as an oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters.A surge above the intermediate resistance of 1.1620 would bring in more momentum traders. Then a break above 1.1690 could kickstart a bullish reversal in favor of the euro.XAUUSD tests resistanceGold recovers as the US dollar softens across the board following a neutral FOMC.Price action had previously struggled to clear the supply area around 1810, the origin of the September correction. The subsequent fall below the support at 1785 has prompted buyers to take profit.However, the RSI’s repeated oversold situation has caught buyers’ attention at the daily support at 1760. 1785 is the hurdle ahead and a bullish breakout would resume the recovery. Failing that, the bears may push towards 1740.USOIL falls back for supportWTI crude slipped after the EIA reported a larger increase in US inventories. The psychological level of 85.00 has been an effective hurdle so far.The previous fall below 81.00 has put the bulls on the defensive, especially after their failure to achieve a new high above 84.70. This is a confirmation that sentiment has grown cautious after the price’s recent vertical ascent.The RSI’s overbought situation on the daily chart could call for a pullback. 79.50 is the closest support. Its breach may send the price to 76.50.

  The S&P 500 extended its bull market on Friday as it reached the new record high above the 4,600 level. Is this still a topping pattern? The S&P 500 index gained 0.19% on Friday, Oct. 29, as it extended its recent advance following a lower opening of the trading session. It reached yet another new record high of 4,608.08. The stock market was reacting to worse-than-expected quarterly corporate earnings releases from the AAPL and AMZN. However, the MSFT and TSLA stocks drove the index higher again on Friday. The market seems overbought in the short-term most likely it’s still trading within a topping pattern. The nearest important support level is at 4,550-4,570, and the next support level is at 4,520-4,525, marked by the previous daily gap up of 4,520.40-4,524.40. On the other hand, the resistance level is now at around 4,650. The S&P 500 trades along a short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Apple Is Volatile While Microsoft Keeps Rallying Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple released its earnings after the Thursday’s close and the first reaction was negative. But on Friday the stock retraced some of its intraday decline. Nevertheless it lost 1.8%. The resistance level remains at $154-156. It is still trading well below the record highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Now let’s take a look at MSFT. It keeps rallying and reaching new record highs after its last week’s Tuesday’s quarterly earnings release. The market remains above a month-long upward trend line. We can see that in the short-term it’s getting more and more technically overbought. The stock may enter a consolidation or a correction just like in the middle of August when it rallied above $300 level. Conclusion The S&P 500 index reached the news record high on Friday, however it closed with a gain of just 0.2%. It still looks like a topping pattern and we may see a consolidation or a downward correction at some point. There may be a profit-taking action following quarterly earnings releases. Today the main indices are expected to open 0.4% higher, but we will likely see an intraday correction later in the day. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 reached new record high on Friday, as it broke slightly above the 4,600 level. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 3% or higher correction from the new record highs. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

With the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, oil looks to be in a corrective phase, as pressure is on for more crude. Are we looking at bearish winds ahead? Crude oil prices have started their corrective wave, as we are approaching the monthly OPEC+ group meeting on Thursday, with some market participants now considering the eventuality of a larger-than-expected rise in production. U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks, American Petroleum Institute (API) via Investing.com Regarding the API figures published Tuesday, the increase in crude inventories (with 3.594 million barrels versus 1.567 million barrels expected) implies weaker demand and is normally bearish for crude prices. Meanwhile, in the United States, the average price of fuel stabilized on Tuesday after several weeks of increase, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), however, that’s 60% higher than a year ago. Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, 4H chart) In summary, we are now getting some context on how the oil market might develop in the forthcoming days, with some crucial events to monitor as they could have a strong impact on the energy markets, and particularly on the supply side. My entry levels for Natural Gas were triggered on Monday (Nov.1), and I’m updating my WTI Crude Oil projections. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

No S&P 500 pause to speak of – bonds support the buying pressure. The broad turn to risk-on has value holding up relatively well while tech remains in the driver‘s seat. The daily weakness in financials looks misleading, and as a function of retreat in yields – I‘m looking for stabilization followed by higher prices. Real estate though is starting to smell a rat – I mean rates, rising rates. Slowly as the Fed didn‘t give the green light, but they would acommodate the unyielding inflation.There was something in the taper announcement for everyone – the hawks are grasping at the possibility to increase taper pace should the Fed start to deem inflation as unpleasantly hot. I wrote about the dovish side I take already on Wednesday when recapping my expectations into the meeting.Coupled with non-farm payrolls coming in above expectations, the table is set to reassure the stock bulls that further gains are possible while the lagging commodities move up. Precious metals would continue recovering from the pre-taper anxiety, and miners with copper kicking back in, would be the confirmation. The dollar should welcome the figure corresponding to yields increase, buying a little more time.One more note on oil – its downswing is positive for the stock bulls as its retreat works to increase disposable income, and in the zero rates environment, kind of acts as a shadow Fed funds rate. Regardless, I‘m standing by the call for triple digit oil prices in 2022.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 fireworks are continuing with improving participation, and the path of least resistance remains higher.Credit MarketsUniversal risk-on move in the credit market still continues, and the long HYG knot isn‘t a sign of a reversal – the bulls merely got ahead of themselves, that‘s all.Gold, Silver and MinersGold easily reversed the pre-taper weakness, and so did silver. I‘m now looking for the miners to catch up, and a good signal thereof would be a fresh commodities upswing. No, CRB Index hasn‘t peaked.Crude OilCrude oil hasn‘t peaked either, and appears attracting buying interest already. While $80 were breached, the commodity is getting ahead of itself on the downside – the oil sector doesn‘t confirm such weakness.CopperCopper has stabilized in the low 4.30s, and an upswing attempt is readying – its underperformance of CRB Index would get reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum consolidation goes on, and nothing has changed since yesterday – stabilization followed by slow grind higher is what‘s most likely next.SummaryS&P 500 stands to benefit from real economy revival, earnings projections and taper being conducted in the least disruptive way, apparently. Credit markets have made up their mind, and aren‘t protesting the risk-on sentiment, which has come from a temporary commodities retreat (hello, China). Inflation worries should though still return to the fore as the rising rates aren‘t as much a result of improving economy and yield spreads, which the precious metals are sensing already.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Have you ever tracked your progress during your oil and gas trading journey and seen such trades? Read on… and come aboard! In the previous edition published last week and updated on Monday, I projected the likelihood of a sturdy support level on the gas market – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGZ21) Futures – for going long around the $5.268-5.361 zone (yellow band), with a relatively tight stop just below $5.070 and targets at $5.750 and $5.890. So, the market indeed sank just below that band to trigger an entry on Monday, and then it was suddenly pushed back up by the bulls waiting to take over the price to the upward direction. This long trade was also supported by the fundamentals, as the heating needs for the month of November were gradually increasing. The weather forecasts appeared to orientate the demand upwards backed by an uninterrupted demand for Liquefied Natural gas (LNG) US exports. Then, Nat-Gas hit the first target at $5.750 on Wednesday, and stopped at the $5.876 mark – located just $0.014 below the second projected target at $5.890 – on Thursday! Regarding Crude Oil, a new entry, provided to our premium subscribers on Wednesday has just being triggered. The black gold is now attempting to rebound onto that support, which acts as a new floor. Trading Charts Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGZ21) Futures (December contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned levels of our trade plan: Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGZ21) Futures (December contract, 4H chart) In conclusion, my trading approach has led me to suggest some long trades around potential key supports - natural gas recently offered multiple opportunities to take advantage of dips onto those projected levels. If you don’t want to miss any future trading alerts, make sure to look at our Premium Section. Have a nice weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 embraced the dovish taper - $10bn a month pace gives the Fed quite a breathing room without having to revisit the decision unless markets force it to. The taper is as dovish as can be, with rate raising escaping attention. Talk of no rocking the boat, for the markets, economy and fiscal policy initiatives just can‘t do without. The more dovish scenario of my yesterday‘s presentation came true: (…) So, how would the taper message be delivered, and could it go as far as $15bn a month asset purchase reduction while avoiding rate hike mentions as much as possible? Even if $15bn is indeed the announced figure, I‘m looking for the Fed to soften it before it can run its course, i.e. before 2H 2022 arrives – the economy isn‘t in such a great shape to take it, and the fresh spending bill (whatever the price tag), needs central bank‘s support too. The initial reaction has been very positive in stocks, and overly weak in precious metals and commodities. The real assets downswings are though being reversed in line with my Tuesday‘s expectations – and in today‘s premarket tweets on the unfolding price moves. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rose without any brief disappointment – the top with capital t clearly isn‘t in, so don‘t think about standing in the bulls‘ way much. Credit Markets Universal risk-on move in the credit market continues, and the sectoral reaction to rising Treassury yields is a very positive one. Bonds and stocks are obviously seeing through the taper fog. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold was afraid of the hawkish outcome, which had zero real chance of happening – and miners spurted higher decisively first. Let‘s see the initial and misleading weakness in real assets being reversed, one by one – and silver do great again. Crude Oil Crude oil has likewise flashed extraordinary weakness – one to be reversed with vengeance. The Fed can‘t print oil, and the energy crunch goes on as nothing has changed yesterday for black gold. Copper Copper gyrations don‘t change the fact the red metal is ready to swing higher next. Just wait for its reaction when broader strength returns to the CRB Index – we won‘t have to wait too long. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum haven‘t been jubilant about the dovish news, but haven‘t come down beforehand either. Stabilization followed by slow grind higher is what‘s most likely next. Summary S&P 500 benefited the most from the taper message delivery, and the bulls keep having the upper hand – with increasing confirmation from the credit markets. The very initial reaction to taper announcement – namely its bearish anticipation – is indeed being reversed higher within commodities and precious metals. No tantrum, no rocking the boat – and asset prices are going to love that. Get ready for rising yields that would gradually stop underpinning the dollar – patience with the latter. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Here is what you should consider when asking why it isn’t trading even higher. First, after an initial up-leg like this, a trend is set in motion, but it is just the beginning of a trend. It needs time to develop. Most of the reasons debated this year when silver stepped into the limelight were the reasons the traders anticipated fueling the first leg. A big part is that it takes time until the public digests the market, which is ahead of reality, a speculative prognosis on how the future might look. There is a trickle-down effect until silver can build up its second leg. From an active market speculator perspective, inflation is real, but years can pass until the crowd realizes what is going on. Then gold needs to move, which in turn awakens silver with a delay. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, bull as bull can be: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The monthly gold chart above shows the strong bullish trend in gold over the last twenty years. Telltales are a higher high in 2020 versus 2011, and the price strength since. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, getting ready: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The weekly chart has just come alive to an exciting inflection point. A closer look reveals that price has successfully built a second leg from the US$1,680 double bottom price zone (yellow lines). The upcoming weeks should show if a double triangle formation (red lines) was severed now that the price is trading above POC support of a fractal volume study (white line). Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, looking good: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The weekly silver chart is bullish as well. Bulls have successfully defended the yearly range lows zone (slim white box). They mutually are attacking an overhead resistance with quite some might, and upcoming weeks might find price successful in that attempt. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, history as a guide: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 5th, 2021. The above monthly chart shows an excellent example of how much patience is needed to earn significant profits from a silver investment. In this case, silver initiated a range break in 1973, where prices tripled within a year. Much like silver’s recent move from March last year to the current top in February this year. It showed a similar percentage move. This first leg of a bullish trend required more than three years of investor’s patience before the second leg was initiated. Those patient enough to hold on were rewarded with a near thousand percent price increase.   Silver, patience pays: “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”Nothing has changed in the last hundred years about the principle value of this quote by Edwin Lefèvre (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, published in 1923). We are used to active participation in a process to earn one’s wages. In this aspect however, the market is counterintuitive. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.” Lefèvre again points towards patience and a state of inactivity being just right in market play. We find the last phase of silver in a sideways range if anything is encouraging to a substantial second leg up in the making, It will therefore reward the patient owner of his physical holdings. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

Dax December hit our buying opportunity at 15580/530 with stops below 15500 but over ran to 15483. I am hoping you held on for the bounce to 15620 & 15670, with prices reaching 15715 EuroStoxx 50 December finally hit the next target of 4245/50 with a high for the year at 4254. FTSE 100 December unfortunately longs at first support at 7225/15 were stopped below 7200 & then we missed best support at 7160/40 by 8 ticks. Video analysis: Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax longs at 15580/530 (if you managed to hold the position) hit the target of 15700/750. Further gains are expected at the start of the towards 15950/16000. Downside is likely to be limited with minor support at 15630/10. If we continue lower try longs at 15500/500 with stops below 15470. (Targets are 15620, 15670, 15750). EuroStoxx finally hit the next target of 4245/50 as we look for 4265/69. If we continue higher look for 4295/99. Try longs at 4225/15 with stops below 4200. FTSE crawls slowly higher in volatile conditions - certainly making it tough to hold a long on Friday. Still, downside is expected to be limited with minor support at 7200/7180. Best support at 7155/45. Longs need stops below 7130. Above 7240 targets 7260 then 7290/99.

AUDUSD breaks lower The Australian dollar softened after a dovish RBA stressed that inflation was still too low to hike soon. The pair has met stiff selling pressure near last July’s high of 0.7550. While sentiment has turned positive from the daily chart’s perspective, an overbought RSI has made buyers cautious. The drop below 0.7490 then 0.7450 has forced out leveraged positions, exacerbating the downward pressure. 0.7380 on the 30-day moving average would be the next support. An oversold RSI may attract bids in this congestion area. NZDUSD retreats from double top The New Zealand dollar bounced back after the Q3 unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. A double top at 0.7220 suggests exhaustion in the kiwi’s ascent after the RSI repeatedly pointed to an overbought situation. A break below 0.7130 indicates that the bears have gained the upper hand, pushing the opposing side to close their bets. The previous supply zone around 0.7070 has turned into a demand zone. This coincides with the 30-day moving average, and along with an oversold RSI, it may gain support from a buy-the-dips crowd. UK 100 tests demand zone The FTSE 100 consolidates gains as investors turn their attention to the US Federal Reserve meeting. The bulls are looking to get a foothold after a close above the August peak at 7240. The RSI’s double top in the overbought zone is a sign of overextension in the short term. Trend followers may look to stake in at the psychological level of 7200, a key demand zone on the 20-day moving average. A bearish breakout would deepen the pullback to 7140. On the upside, a rebound above 7310 would resume the rally.

USDJPY best at support at 113.40/30 again today. EURJPY up one day, down the next day in the sideways trend for over a week. Becoming more erratic & therefore difficult to trade. CADJPY also more random & more erratic last week, although shorts at first resistance at 9240/60 work again yesterday with a 70 pip profit offered this morning. Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. USDJPY first support again at 113.40/30. Longs need stops below 113.20 so the risk is very small. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 113.00/112.90 & 112.60/50 for profit taking on shorts. Longs at 113.40/30 target 113.80/90. We should pause here but further gains meet minor resistance at last week's high of 114.25/30. Strong resistance at the October high of 114.50/70. Shorts need stops above 114.80. A break higher is a medium term buy signal. EURJPY first support at 131.60/40, stop below 131.35. A break lower is a sell signal initially targeting 130.90 & we could hold here initially, maybe even bounce to 131.40/50. Further losses meet an important buying opportunity at 130.40/20 with stops below 130.00 First resistance at 132.20/30 . Above 132.40 can target 132.90, perhaps as far as strong resistance at October's high of 133.30/50. CADJPY shorts at first resistance at 9240/60 worth a try again targeting 9200 & 9175 (hit as I write). A buying opportunity at 9120/00 with stops below 9090. Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 9240/60. However a break higher retests October's high at 9295/9305. Emini S&P December on the way to the next target of 4625/35 this week. Longs at first support at 4590/85 starting to work. Nasdaq December closed at the new all time high at 159864 keeping the outlook positive for this week as we hit the next target of 15900/950. Emini Dow Jones December making a clear break above the all time high at 35540/550 for a buy signal as we hit the next target of 35800/850 & now look for 36000/100. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P longs at first support at 4590/85 are expected to target 4625/35 but a high for the day is likely if tested today. Shorts are very risky of course in the bull trend. A break above 4645 is the next buy signal. First support at 4590/85. Longs need stops below 4575. Strong support at 4545/35. Longs need stops below 4525. Nasdaq December now expected to target 15900/950 (hit yesterday) & now 16050/080. Downside is expected to be limited ion the bull trend with first support at 15780/750. Stop below 15720. A break lower targets 15670 with strong support at 15580/540. Longs need stops below 15500. Emini Dow Jones December now targeting 35800/850 & 36000/100, even as far as 36250/280. Downside is expected to be limited with minor support at 35670/650 & 35525/500. A buying opportunity at 35320/280 with stops below 35250. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

  The yellow metal couldn’t face the downward pressure and declined abruptly on Friday. What happened, and why did it fail? Friday was a brutal time for gold. The price of the yellow metal dropped sharply from around $1,795 to $1,775 in the early morning hours in the US. Am I surprised? Not at all. In Thursday’s edition of the Fundamental Gold Report, I wrote that “gold may struggle until the Fed’s tightening cycle starts. You have been warned!”, and, as if on cue, gold wasn’t able to maintain its position around $1,800 and declined. Actually, gold prices have been testing and failing to hold this key psychological level for the last three weeks. What exactly happened on Friday? Well, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published the report on personal income and outlays in September 2021. The publication shows that U.S. nominal consumer spending increased 0.6%, while the disposable personal income declined 1.3%, reflecting a decrease in government social benefits. Additionally, the annual rate of change in personal consumption expenditures price index accelerated from 4.2% in August to 4.4% in September (see the chart below), the highest pace since January 1991. Wait. Inflation rose, but gold prices declined? Exactly. Inflation is fundamentally positive for gold in the long run, but so far – as I explained last week – “inflationary worries have been counterweighted by the expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle”. The relationship is simple: higher inflation translates into higher expectations of a more hawkish Fed. The odds of an interest rate hike in June 2022 increased from 23.1% - recorded at the end of September - to 61.6% on October 22 and 65.7% on October 29, 2021. As a result, the bond yields increased, while the greenback strengthened. There is also another possible driver of rising interest rates and an appreciating US dollar. CPI inflation in the euro area accelerated to 4.1% in October from 3.4% in September, reaching the highest value since July 2008. However, the ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged last week despite quickly rising prices. Moreover, it’s not signaling any tightening of its stance, maintaining that high inflation is transitory even though Christine Lagarde acknowledged that the decline in inflation would take longer than the central bank had initially expected. The point here is that the ECB remains an outlier among central banks, which either have already tightened or signaled tightening of their monetary policy. This means that the US dollar is likely to appreciate against the euro, which should be another headwind for gold. Having said that, this scenario will occur if the markets believe in a dovish stance of the EBC. The rising yields on German bonds indicate that the markets don’t entirely trust Lagarde’s rhetoric and expect a more hawkish stance of the ECB, which would be fortunate for gold.   Implications for Gold What does higher US inflation imply for the gold market? Well, not so much in the short run. Even though I’ve seen some signs of a bullish revival in the gold market, the bulls remain too weak to challenge the $1,800 level. That’s too much, man! Luckily, better times are coming for gold. Have you seen the advance estimates of the durable goods orders (0.4% decline in September) or of the GDP in the third quarter of this year? According to the BEA, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% (annualized quarterly growth), much below the 6.7% reported in Q2 and much below the expectations of 2.8% growth. When it comes to the annual percentage growth year-over-year, real GDP rose 4.9% compared to 12.2% in Q2, as the chart below shows. So, the pace of growth remains historically fast, but it’s decelerating quickly. Given that the economy has already reopened and energy and transportation crises are hurting growth (not to mention inflation wreaking havoc), we should expect a further slowdown on the way. And this brings us closer to… yes, you guessed it, stagflation. To be clear: we are still far from stagnation, but the economic slowdown after a spectacular post-pandemic recovery is already unfolding. When we add it to high inflation, we should get an environment supportive of gold prices. However, supportive factors won’t be able to fully operate until the Fed starts hiking interest rates and gold prices bottom out. Sometimes one needs to hit rock bottom to succeed later; perhaps that’s also the case with gold. Time will tell. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Was the adage "buy the rumor, sell the news" also verified with that new trading position? It was Thursday (Nov. 4) that the following rumor had flourished: a possible coordinated action which was supposed to consist of drawing on the strategic reserves of several countries, including the United States, which were leading the dance. Meanwhile, our subscribers were just getting ready to go long around the $76.57-79.65 support zone (yellow band), with a stop placed on lower $76.48 level (red dotted line) and targets at $81.80 and $83.40 (green dotted lines). As a result, oil prices had contracted in stride (trading just into our entry area), just before the rumor effect faded shortly on Friday (Nov. 5), to push them back up. In fact, with oil prices picking up momentum on Friday, once again settling firmly above $80 per barrel, and with a market still showing doubts on the possible use of strategic crude reserves, the proposed trade entry on the black gold, triggered on Thursday – following my last post – was thus profitable since it already turned into a partial profit-taking at the end of the week. Then, on Saturday, Joe Biden said that his administration had the means to cope with the rise in energy prices, in particular after the OPEC+'s decision not to raise their production to more than 400,000 barrels per day. in a context of global imbalance between supply and demand. In addition, Joe Biden also insinuated that the organization (and its allies) might actually not do its best to pump enough volume of crude oil. Trading Charts Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the above-mentioned levels of our trade plan: Chart – WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, 4H chart) In summary, my trading approach has led me to suggest some long trades around potential key supports, as this dip on crude oil offered a great opportunity for the bulls to enter long whilst aiming towards specific projected targets. If you don’t want to miss any future trading alerts, make sure to look at here. . Moreover, for those interested in Forex trading, please note that I am currently preparing some new series about the co-existing links and relationships between commodities and currencies. Stay tuned – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 paused to a degree, but bonds didn‘t – we‘re far from a peak. That though doesn‘t mean a brief correction (having a proper look at the chart, sideways consolidation not reaching more than a precious couple of percentage points down) won‘t arrive still this month. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps. And when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged. For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating. Don‘t look for the oil breather to last too long – black gold is well bid above $78, and hasn‘t made its peak in 2021, let alone 2022. As I wrote on Friday, its downswing that works to increase disposable income (serving as a shadow Fed funds rate in the zero rates environment), would prove short-lived. The real economy would have to come to terms with stubbornly high oil prices – and it will manage. The yield curve is starting to steepen modestly again, and fresh spending initiatives would breathe some life into the stalling GDP growth. Next year though, don‘t be surprised by a particularly weak (even negative) quarterly reading, but we aren‘t there by a long shot, I‘m telling you. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 looks getting ripe for taking a pause – the rising volume isn‘t able to push it much higher intraday. Credit Markets HYG strength indeed continues, and it‘s a good sign that quality debt instruments are joining – the reprieve won‘t last long though (think a few brief weeks before rates start rising again). Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver continue reversing the pre-taper weakness, and miners are indeed joining in. I‘m looking for more gains with every dip being bought. Crude Oil Crude oil hasn‘t peaked, and looks getting ready to consolidate with a bullish bias again. $85 hasn‘t been the top, and the energy sector remains primed to do well. Copper Copper is deceptively weak, and actually internally strong when other base metals are examined. As more money flows into commodities, look for the red metal to start doing better – commodities haven‘t topped yet. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidation has come to an end, and the pre-positioned bulls have a reason to celebrate as my prior scenario– stabilization followed by slow grind higher is what‘s most likely next – came to fruition. Summary S&P 500 breather is a question of time, but shouldn‘t reach far on the downside – the credit markets don‘t support it. Commodities are catching up in the (dovish as assessed by the markets too) taper aftermath, and precious metals are sniffing the dollar‘s weakness a few short weeks ahead. With fresh money not needed to repair commercial banks‘ balance sheets, it flows into the financial markets, and the taper effects would be negated by the repo operations – yes, I‘m not looking for a liquidity crunch. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

While the greenback's failed breakout on Nov. 4th may seem bearish, it faced a similar situation in August and October, only to recover and achieve new highs. After the USD Index’s negative response to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 28, I warned on Oct. 29 that dollar bears were unlikely to celebrate for much longer. I wrote: Based on the rather random comment during the conference, the traders panicked and bought the EUR/USD, which triggered declines in the USD Index (after all, the EUR/USD is the largest component of the USDX). Was the breakout to new 2021 lows invalidated? No. The true breakout was above the late-March highs (the August highs also served as a support level, but the March high is more important here) and it wasn’t invalidated. What was the follow-up action? At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is up and trading at about 93.52, which is just 0.07 below the August high in terms of the closing prices. Consequently, it could easily be the case that the USD Index ends today’s session (and the week) back above this level. You’ve probably heard the saying that time is more important than price. It’s the end of the month, so let’s check what happened in the case of previous turns of the month; that’s where we usually see major price turnarounds. I marked the short-term turnarounds close to the turns of the month with horizontal dashed blue lines, and it appears that, in the recent past, there was practically always some sort of a turnaround close to the end of the month. Consequently, seeing a turnaround (and a bottom) in the USD index now would be perfectly normal. And after the forecast turned into reality, the USD Index surged above 94 and remains poised to resume its uptrend over the medium term. To explain, if we zoom in on the four-hour chart, it highlights the importance of the price action on Nov. 5. During the session, the USD Index hit a new 2021 intraday high before a small reversal occurred. This might seem bearish at the first sight (it’s a failed breakout, after all)… However, similar developments were also present in August and October. After the dollar basket attempted to make new highs and failed, the greenback eventually regained its composure and achieved the milestones. As a result, another 2021 high should occur sooner rather than later. Please see below: The first failed attempt to break above the previous highs triggered sizable short-term declines. This happened in August (marked with red). The second – September – attempt triggered only a small correction (marked with green) that was then followed by a bigger rally. Similarly, the – marked with red – October invalidation was followed by a sizable decline, and the current one (marked with green), is relatively small. And it’s likely to be followed by a short-term rally, just like the September correction was. On top of that, as you can see on the below chart, the current setup for the USD Index and gold mirrors what we witnessed in early August. Following its sharp summertime rally, the USD Index moved close to its 50-day moving average without reaching it. And after buyers stepped in, the USD Index resumed its uptrend and made a new 2021 high. Moreover, with a similar pattern and a similar reading on the USD Index’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) present today, the greenback’s outlook remains robust. I marked both cases with red, vertical, dashed lines below. More importantly, though gold, silver, and mining stocks’ upswings concluded once the USD Index bottomed close to its 50-day moving average in August and sharp drawdowns followed. Moreover, while gold, silver, and mining stocks’ recent rallies were likely underwritten by expectations of a weaker USD Index (it did fail to move to new highs, right?) , technical (as described above and below) and fundamental realities contrast this thesis. As a result, the 2021 theme of ‘USD Index up, PMs down’ will likely resume over the medium term. Please see below: Equally bullish for the greenback, the Euro Index remains overvalued and should suffer a material drawdown over the medium term. For example, the index’s previous lows, its 50-day moving average, and its declining resistance line combined to create major resistance and the Euro Index is now retesting its 2021 lows. As a result, the next temporary stop could be ~1.1500 (the March 2020 highs, then likely lower). For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and that’s why the euro’s behavior is so important. Please see below: Adding to our confidence (don’t get me wrong, there are no certainties in any market; it’s just that the bullish narrative for the USDX is even more bullish in my view), the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around). Furthermore, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration. Moreover, as the journey unfolds, the bullish signals from 2014 have resurfaced once again. For example, the USD Index’s RSI is hovering near a similar level (marked with red ellipses), and back then, a corrective downswing also occurred at the previous highs. More importantly, though, the short-term weakness was followed by a profound rally in 2014, and many technical and fundamental indicators signal that another reenactment could be forthcoming. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or the ones of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind still remains at the dollar’s back. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98 target is likely to be reached over the medium term, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the USD Index remains in the driver’s seat and new highs should materialize over the medium term. And while gold, silver and mining stocks have rode the S&P 500 higher recently, history has been unkind when the precious metals ignore technical and fundamental realities. Moreover, with gold, silver, and mining stocks’ strong negative correlations with the U.S. dollar standing the test of time, it’s likely only a matter of time before investors realize this as well. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Some might argue that it is best to sit on one’s hands and wait for a time when bitcoin prices are suppressed, and they have a point with the possibility of a market crash. And then again, they might have said that already when bitcoin was still trading at US$3,000 (we do not find it likely that bitcoin will ever retrace to those levels again.). Where are the uncertainties in bitcoins certainty? When you dissect a complex mechanism, you will always find a problem. It is like going to the bakery. It would be foolish to expect to get anything else but bread. Maybe it is better to look at a glass half full, meaning why not look at why bitcoin could be a certainty? BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, every buyer is a winner if he didn’t sell: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 9th, 2021. The monthly chart above certainly shows that whoever bought in the past has made a profit by now. Yet, we know “hodling” isn’t an easy thing. Personal risk appetite determines the number of bitcoin that can be held throughout these boom and bust cycles. We solved this dilemma through our quad exit strategy. And we teach low-risk position size building in our free telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, new all-time highs: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 9th, 2021. Now, moving forward to real-time, we can make out a similar bullish picture on the weekly chart after our glimpse in the past. Recent events provide data that substantiates bitcoin’s long-term certainty. A look at the last two weeks of October (marked in white) reveals a very brief battle with a minimal retracement level at the double top of all-time highs. Bears barely get a foot in the door, where typically bitcoin experiences significant retracements. To us, a clear sign that the rush is on. Big player money is now rushing to accumulate the necessary size they aim to hold on their books for the long term. Consequently, reducing volatility, one of the most feared aspects of bitcoin, which in times to come will attract more market players to this trading vehicle.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, six figures in 2022: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 9th, 2021. A look into the future from a monthly chart perspective is confidence building as well. With new all-time high prices printing at the time of publication of this chart book, our bet is still on bitcoin with a 63% over 47% chance that prices will advance from here rather than retracing to a substantially lower price level. So far, bitcoin has done nothing else but eradicate the uncertainties placed in its way. The most stubborn doubter would likely be happy if they had picked up a few coins when they traded at a dollar. What provides confidence for our forecast is the confirmation that bitcoin price retracements are now more modest. This lets us assume that the number of professional traders participating in this market has increased. In the monthly chart above, you can make out that closing prices of the month’s May, June, and July this year closed above the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. A conservative retracement for bitcoins historical standards. We project for the near term that bitcoin will reach six-figure prices in mid-February next year. The uncertain certainty of bitcoin: From the anticipatory perspective, it seems evident that holding bitcoin is a prudent move with a look into the future. A hedge is needed once the risk is apparent to all, and the house of cards will tumble.  From a real-time perspective, we also find bitcoin to be a “must-own.” The charts above showed the strength with which bitcoin is aching to claim its turf, and it is never good to wait till “fear of missing out” kicks in, and low-risk entry opportunities become scarce.  And from a reactionary perspective, a look in the past, it is evident that anybody would like a piece of the action where bitcoin has nothing but a stunning history of unheard percentage moves and made it from eight cents to US$ 67,000 in just a dozen years.  There are always uncertainties in speculative ventures, but bitcoin itself is a certainty, not to be rationalized away for the years to come. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 9th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

EURGBP sees a temporary pullback The sterling inched higher as traders took profit after the BOE’s dovish shift last week. The rally above the supply area of 0.8570 is a sign of commitment from the buy-side. Strong momentum has forced the bears to rush for the exit door. 0.8620 is now the next resistance. Its break would bring the euro to September’s high at 0.8660, where a breakout may lead to a bullish reversal in the medium-term. In the meantime, an overbought RSI is causing a pullback. The base of the latest surge at 0.8465 is an important support. NZDUSD tests key resistance The New Zealand dollar recoups losses as risk appetite recovers. The pair has met buying interest at 0.7070 along the 20-day moving average. A bullish RSI divergence is a sign that the bearish momentum has waned. When this happens in a demand zone, it makes a rebound of greater significance. 0.7180 is a major hurdle ahead following a previously botched bounce. Its breach may resume the kiwi’s uptrend above 0.7220. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area may briefly limit the bullish impetus. GER 40 consolidates gains The Dax 40 continues to rally in hopes of a prolonged low-rate environment. The bulls are pushing towards 16200 after the index reached the milestone at 16000. However, the RSI’s multiple ventures into the overbought area and a bearish divergence indicate that the rally may have overextended. A temporary pullback would be necessary to let the bulls catch their breath. 15920 is the immediate support. Further down, 15730 on the 20-day moving average would be an area of interest.

Bitcoin is volatile and nosedives in some of these attacks. A historical look back illustrates how bitcoin each time is climbing higher right after: 2009 traded for free (zero value) between enthusiasts 2010 worth US$0.08 2011 from US$1 up to US$32 back down to US$2 2012 from US$4.80 up to US$13.20 2013 from US$13.40 up to US$1,156 and down to US$760 2014 – 2016 down to US$315 2017 up to US$20,089 2018 down to US$3,122 2019 up to US$13,880 2020 up to US$34,800 2021 up to US$67,016 And these last three years, bitcoin has been climbing higher, undeterred. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, bitcoin, a true winner: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The monthly chart above illustrates bitcoin’s winning characteristics. We can see harmonious swings. Retracements are substantial, but bitcoin shows a persistent tendency to outperform previous all-time highs. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, explosive recent history: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The weekly chart points towards more explosive moves recently. After a breakout of a multi-year range, we can see that bitcoin has started to move substantially due to more widespread adoption. Swing behavior is getting more harmonious. At the moment, we are in the midst of a battle between bears and bulls at a double top formation. Consequently, the following days to weeks will show who will come out ahead. The fact that bulls cling to their winnings for this long gives price in this pat situation a slight edge for the bullish corner.   BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, stepping away from the noise: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Daily chart as of November 2nd, 2021. The daily chart can be pretty volatile. These smaller time frames are advised only to be traded if you are a professional. This applies particularly to struggle zones like the one we are currently in, for instance. Intraday swings can get substantial. In addition, once these battles between bears and bulls resolve, daily percentage moves can be staggering. Luckily, one doesn’t need to fear such challenging trading environments. To clarify, step up to larger time frames and reduce trade frequency and position size. Accept the risk based on adequate position size to your individual psychology and risk appetite. Consequently, buying for the long term will become much easier. It is essential as such to be familiar with a trading object’s typical behavior and, in bitcoins case, not to forget its ability to shine after a major setback. Bitcoin is climbing undeterred higher: Overall, bitcoins’ technical personality makes it an easy choice for one’s wealth preservation portfolio. Especially when options for wealth preservation investments are limited! This year’s strength towards gold and silver price performance had us increase bitcoins percentage allocation within the long-term portfolio. It fulfills two valuable functions to firmly find its place under historically much longer established counterparts. Scarcity for stability, and a more considerable performance potential necessary to protect against inflation. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

S&P 500 pause goes on, and bonds support more of it to come. Tech keeps thus far the high ground gained, but value is showing signs of very short-term weakness – and yields haven‘t retreated yesterday really. The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks. To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.The dollar though isn‘t putting much pressure on stock, commodity or precious metals prices at the moment – such were my yesterday‘s words:(…) when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.And that‘s what precious metals would be increasingly sniffing out. Commodities are joining in the post-taper celebrations, and my prior Tuesday‘s market assessments are coming to fruition one by one. Oil is swinging higher and hasn‘t topped, copper is coming back to life, and cryptos aren‘t in a waiting mood either.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 pause is here, and all that‘s missing, is emboldened bears. They may or may not arrive given that VIX keeps looking lazy these days – either way, the risks to the downside are persisting for a couple of days at least still.Credit MarketsHYG strength evaporated, but it‘s on a short-term basis only. The broader credit market weakness would get reversed, but it‘s my view that quality debt instruments would be lagging.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver continue reversing the pre-taper weakness – the upswing goes on, but is likely to temporarily pause as the miners‘ daily weakness foretells. Still, I‘m looking for more gains with every dip being bought.Crude OilCrude oil bulls continue having the upper hand, no matter the relative momentary stumble in maintaining gains – the energy sector hasn‘t peaked by a long shot.CopperCopper is participating in the commodities upswing – not too hot, not too cold. Just right, and it‘s a question of time when the red metal would start visibly outperforming the CRB Index again.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum consolidation has indeed come to an end, and both leading (by volume traded) cryptos are primed for further gains. SummaryS&P 500 breather remains a question of time, but shouldn‘t reach far on the downside – the bears are having an opportunity to strike as credit markets have weakened, and there isn‘t enough short-term will in tech to go higher still. The very short-term picture in stocks is mixed, but downside risks are growing. The dollar is already weakening, much to the liking of commodities and precious metals – there is still enough liquidity in the markets as any taper can be easily offset by withdrawing repo money sitting on the Fed‘s balance sheet.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

EURUSD meets resistance The euro finds support from an upbeat economic sentiment from across the block. The pair has met buying interest in the demand zone around 1.1520. A bullish RSI divergence suggests that sellers may have taken their feet off the pedal. Subsequently, a break above 1.1560 prompted the short side to cover. 1.1615 is a key supply zone from last week’s sell-off, after which the bulls need to lift offers near 1.1690 before a reversal could gain traction. On the downside, a fall below 1.1550 may call the rebound into question. XAGUSD awaits breakout Bullions rise as the US dollar retreats ahead of the release of inflation data. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart is a sign that sentiment could be turning around. Silver is testing the September high of 24.80. A bullish breakout would trigger an extended rally towards 26.00. However, the RSI’s double top in the overbought area has held buyers back as the market awaits new catalysts. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling could drive the price lower. The base of a previous breakout at 23.70 would be a support. US 500 seeks support The S&P 500 consolidates gains over strong corporate earnings and improved economic outlook. The divergence between the 20 and 30-day moving averages indicates an acceleration in the rally. Though there is a chance of a pullback after the RSI shot into the overbought area. The bullish bias means that buyers may be eager to jump in during a correction. The index is hovering above 4660. 4625 on the 20-day moving average would be the second line of defense. On the upside, a rebound would lead to 4750.

US economy added 531,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations. Gold reacted… in a bullish way, and jumped above $1,800! The October nonfarm payrolls came surprisingly strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 531,000 jobs last month, much above the expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 450,000 added jobs). So, it’s a nice change from the last two disappointing reports. What’s more, the August and September numbers were significantly revised up – by 235,000 combined. Let’s keep in mind that we also have the additions of 1,091,000 in July and 366,000 in August (after an upward revision). Additionally, the unemployment rate declined from 4.8% to 4.6%, as the chart above shows. It’s a positive surprise, as economists expected a drop to 4.7%. In absolute terms, the number of unemployed people fell by 255,000 - to 7.4 million. It’s a much lower level compared to the recessionary peak (23.1 million), however, it’s still significantly higher than before the pandemic (5.7 million and the unemployment rate of 3.5%). Implications for Gold What does the recent employment report imply for the precious market? Well, gold surprised observers and rallied on Friday despite strong nonfarm payrolls. As the chart below shows, the London P.M. Fix surpassed the key level of $1,800. To show gold’s reaction more clearly, let’s take a look at the chart below, which shows that the price of gold futures initially declined after the October Employment Situation Report release. Only after a while, it rebounded and rallied to about $1,820. It’s a surprising behavior, as gold usually reacted negatively to strong economic data. Until now, gold liked weak employment reports as they increased the chances of a dovish Fed that would continue its easy monetary policy. Now, something has changed. But what? Well, some analysts would say that nothing has changed at all. Instead, they would tell us that the latest employment report is not as strong as it seems. In particular, the labor force participation rate was unmoved at 61.6% in October and has remained within a narrow range of 61.4% to 61.7% since June 2020, as the chart below shows. The lack of any improvement in the labor force participation rate could be interpreted as a lack of full employment and used by the Fed as an excuse to leave interest rates unchanged for a long time. I’m not convinced by this explanation. “Full employment” does not mean that all people are working, but all people who want to work are working. And, as the chart above shows, the fact that after the Great Recession the labor participation rate didn’t move back to the pre-crisis level didn’t prevent the Fed from hiking interest rates in 2015-2019. There is also another possibility. It might be the case that investors are now focusing on inflation. The employment report showed that the average hourly earnings have increased by 4.9% over the past twelve months, raising some concerns about wage inflation and general price pressure in the economy. Remember: context is crucial. If the new narrative is more about high inflation, good news may be positive for gold if they also indicate strong inflationary pressure. Although I like this explanation, it’s not free from shortcomings. You see, stronger inflation concerns should increase inflation premium and bond yields. However, the opposite is true: the real interest rates declined last week (see the chart below), enabling gold to catch its breath. After all, the markets are expecting a more dovish Fed than before the announcement of tapering. This is a fundamentally positive development for the gold market. Having said that, it’s too early to declare the start of the breakout. If inflation stays high, the US central bank could have no choice but to hike interest rates next year. Also, although the recent jump despite strong payrolls is encouraging, gold has yet to prove that it can stay above $1,800. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

EURUSD levels are well established so we keep trading them until prices breakout of the range. We have shorts at first resistance at 1.1600/10 from yesterday USDCAD we have longs at 1.2440/20 targeting strong resistance at 1.2510/30. GBPCAD beat strong resistance at 1.6860/70 but meets a selling opportunity at 1.6930/50 with stops above 1.6970. Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. EURUSD strong resistance at 1.1600/10. Shorts need stops above 1.1630. A break higher can target strong resistance at 1.1695/1.1705. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 1.1720. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 1.1765/70 & 1.1800/10. Shorts at 1.1600/10 target 1.1570/60 (hit), perhaps as far as first support at the October low at 1.1530/20. A break below 1.1510 is a sell signal initially targeting 1.1490 & although this could hold initially (a low for the day certainly possible but longs are risky) we eventually expected to target 1.1430/20. USDCAD longs at 1.2440/20 target strong resistance at 1.2510/30. Shorts need stops above 1.2550. First support at 1.2440/20 but longs need stops below 1.2410. A break below here targets 1.2370/65 perhaps as far as support at 1.2300/1.2280. Longs here need stops below 1.2270. A break lower is a sell signal. GBPCAD selling opportunity at 1.6930/50 with stops above 1.6970. A break higher however targets 1.7050/70. Shorts at 1.6930/50 target 1.6860, perhaps as far as 1.6810. A low for the day is possible here but further losses are likely to retest last week's low at 1.6735/25. GBPUSD beat 1.3510/30 to target 1.3570/80 & my selling opportunity at 1.3600/20. Shorts here worked perfectly with a high for the day at 1.3607 & a collapse to my target of 1.3525/15. In fact this was also the low for the day. EURGBP shorts at the 200 day moving average at 8585 work on the slide to second support at 8520/10 for profit taking on any remaining shorts. A low for the day exactly here so longs also worked on the bounce to 8550. GBPNZD shot higher to strong resistance at 1.9050/70 but shorts need stops above 1.9090 (which looks likely today's high as I write). Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. GBPUSD try shorts again at 1.3600/20 targeting 1.3560, perhaps as far as minor support at 1.3525/15. Below here look for 1.3470/60. A selling opportunity at 1.3600/20. Try shorts with stops above 1.3635. A break higher targets 1.3570/75. EURGBP holding below 8550 retests support at 8520/10. Try longs again with stops below 8500. A break lower targets 8475. Longs at 520/10 target 8550 before first resistance at the 200 day moving average at 8585/95. A break above 8600 is a buy signal for this week. GBPNZD shorts at strong resistance at 1.9050/70 target 1.9895, perhaps as far as 1.8950. A break above 1.9090 targets 1.9170/80. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

S&P 500 pause finally went from sideways to down, and might not be over yet. Credit markets aren‘t nearly totally weak – tech simply had to pause, so did semiconductors, and the Tesla downswing took its toll. Value though recovered the intraday downside, and VIX retreated from its daily highs – that may be all it can muster. I‘m looking primarily at bond markets for clues, and these reacted to the PPI figures with further decline in yields.At the same, inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating. As stated yesterday:(…) The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks. To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 finally declined, and the very short-term picture is unclear – is the dip about to continue, or more sideways trading before taking on prior highs? It‘s a coin toss.Credit MarketsHYG recouped some of the prior downside, but the LQD and TLT upswings give an impression of risk-off environment. Sharply declining yields aren‘t necessarily positive for stocks, and such is the case today.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver look like briefly pausing before the upswing continues – miners are pulling ahead, and the ever more negative real rates are powering it all.Crude OilCrude oil bulls continue having the upper hand, and oil sector is also pointing at higher black gold prices to come. Energy hasn‘t peaked by a long shot.CopperCopper went at odds with the CRB Index, but that‘s not a cause for concern. It‘ll take a while, but the red metal would swing upwards again.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are briefly consolidating, and a fresh upswing is a question of shortening time. SummaryS&P 500 remains momentarily undecided, but the pullback shouldn‘t reach far on the downside – the bears are having an opportunity to strike on yet another hot inflation numbers. This isn‘t transitory really as I‘ve been telling you for almost 3 quarters already. Needless to say, the fire under real assets is being increasingly lit – more gains in commodities, precious metals and cryptos are ahead as inflations runs rampant on the Fed‘s watch.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDJPY attempts a bullish reversalThe US dollar broke higher after October’s CPI exceeded expectations.On the daily chart, the RSI has dropped back into the neutrality area. The greenback has secured bids around the 30-day moving average. An oversold RSI on the hourly chart attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd at 112.70.The latest surge above the psychological level of 114.00 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, paving the way for a bullish reversal above 114.25. Before that, an overbought RSI may lead to a pullback towards 113.05.XAUUSD breaks resistanceRising US CPI boosts the demand for gold as an inflation hedge.After being unable to clear the daily chart’s triple top at 1833 over the course of the summer, the precious metal has cut through the resistance like a hot knife through butter. High volatility suggests that sellers were quick to bail out.As momentum traders jump in, the bullish breakout would lead to an extended rally towards 1900. An overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback. In that case, 1823 at the base of the rally may see strong buying interest.USOIL retreats from resistanceWTI crude edged lower after the EIA reported a slight rise in US inventories. The price’s swift recovery above the sell-off point at 83.00 is an indication that sentiment remains overall optimistic.However, the previous peak and psychological level of 85.00 seems like a tough hurdle to overcome for now. An overbought RSI has triggered a temporary pullback with a break below 81.90. In turn, this is deepening the correction towards 79.30.Trend followers may see the limited retracement as an opportunity to stake in.

GBPUSD buried in bearish territory The pound continues to retreat after Britain’s growth fell short of expectations in Q3. A break below September’s low at 1.3420 has invalidated the latest rebound, putting buyers on the defensive once again. The RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area may ease the bearish push momentarily. A bounce could be an opportunity to sell into strength. 1.3500 is the immediate resistance. On the downside, renewed momentum would drive price action towards last December’s lows around 1.3200. AUDUSD struggles for support The Australian dollar came under pressure after the unemployment rate returned above 5% last month. The sell-off continued after a brief pause over the 30-day moving average near 0.7390, turning the latter into a fresh resistance. The lack of support suggests increasingly downbeat sentiment. The base of October’s bullish breakout at 0.7240 is the next support. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a limited rebound from the round number at 0.7300, though it is likely to turn out to be a dead cat bounce. US100 tests demand zone The Nasdaq 100 suffers losses as high inflation dents risk appetite. An RSI divergence showed a deceleration in the uptrend, a sign that the rally has overheated. Subsequently, a drop below 16200 has prompted leveraged buyers to exit for fear of a correction. As the RSI inched into the oversold territory, the index saw bids near the breakout zone (15900) from earlier this month. The support-turned-resistance at 16200 is the first hurdle. Then the bulls will need to clear 16400 before the rally can resume.

  Inflation rears its ugly head, surging at the fastest pace since 1990. The yellow metal has finally reacted as befits an inflation hedge: went up. Do you know what ambivalence is? It is a state of having two opposing feelings at the same time –this is exactly how I feel now. Why? Well, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that consumer inflation surged in October, which is something I hate because it lowers the purchasing power of money, deteriorating the financial situation of most people, especially the poorest and the least educated who don’t know how to protect against rising prices. On the other hand, I feel satisfaction, as it turned out that I was right in claiming that high inflation would be more persistent than the pundits claimed. After the September report on inflation, I wrote: “I’m afraid that consumer inflation could increase even further in the near future”. Sieron vs. Powell: 1:0! Indeed, the CPI rose 0.9% last month after rising 0.4% in September. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, accelerated to 0.6% in October from 0.1% in the preceding month. And, as the chart below shows, the overall CPI annual rate accelerated from 5.4% in September to 6.2% in October, while the core CPI annual rate jumped from 4% to 4.6%. This surge (and a new peak) is a final blow to the Fed’s fairy tale about transitory inflation. As one can see in the chart above, the CPI rate has stayed above the Fed’s target since March 2021, and it won’t decline to 2% anytime soon. This contradicts all definitions of transitoriness I know. What’s more, the October surge in inflation was not only above the expectations – it was also the biggest jump since November 1990, as the chart below shows. Unfortunately for Americans, it might not be the last word of inflation. This is because over 80% of CPI subcomponents were above the Fed’s target of 2%, which clearly indicates that high inflation is not caused merely by the reopening of the economy but also by the broad-based factors such as the surge in the money supply.   Implications for Gold Ladies and gentlemen, gold finally reacted to surging inflation! As the chart below shows, the price of gold (Comex futures) spiked from below $1,830 to above $1,860 after the BLS report on CPI. Why did gold finally notice inflation and react as a true inflation hedge? Well, it seems that the narrative changed. Until recently, investors believed the Fed that inflation would be transitory. Reality, however, has disproved this story. Another factor I would like to mention is the FOMC’s recent announcement of tapering of its quantitative easing. That event removed some downward pressure from the gold market. By the way, this is something I also correctly predicted in the Fundamental Gold Report that commented on September inflation report: “it seems that until the Fed tapers its quantitative easing, gold will remain under downward pressure. Nonetheless, when it finally happens, better times may come for gold.” Indeed, yesterday’s rally suggests that gold recalled its function as a hedge against inflation. Until today, I was cautious in announcing the breakout in the gold market, as the yellow metal jumped above $1,800 only recently. However, the fact that gold managed not only to stay above $1,800 but also to continue its march upward (in tandem with the US dollar!) suggests that there is bullish momentum right now. Having said that, investors should remember about the threat of a more hawkish Fed. Higher inflation could support the monetary hawks within the FOMC and prompt the US central bank to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. The prospects of a tightening cycle could weigh on gold. However, as long as investors focus stronger on inflation than on tightening of monetary policy, and as long as the real interest rates decrease, or at do not increase, gold can go up. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet. I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets. And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic: (…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either. S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating. Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either. Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 decline continues, and the very short-term picture favors a little consolidation – the selling might not be over just yet. Credit Markets HYG, LQD and TLT – weakness anywhere you look, without tangible signs of stabilization, which makes any S&P 500 upswings a doubtful proposition. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver look to be just getting started – the growing money flows aren‘t sufficient to push prices lower. Miners are pulling ahead, and the ever more negative real rates coupled with surging inflation fears (and Fed policy mistake recognition) are powering it all. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls would have to step in around the $80 level again, and it seems they wouldn‘t find it too hard to do. Yesterday‘s downswing looks like a daily setback only. Copper Copper downswing was again bought, and I‘m not looking for the bears to make much further progress as commodities appear ready to turn up again regardless of temporary dollar strength. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are again briefly consolidating, and the bulls haven‘t really spoken their last word. It‘s a nice base building before another upleg. Summary S&P 500 is likely pausing for a moment here, and any further pullback isn‘t likely to reach far on the downside. The late day selloff in real assets was merely a brief, news-driven correction that would be reversed before too long, and precious metals are showing the way as inflation is moving back into the spotlight, and the talk about Fed‘s policy mistake is growing louder. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Evergrande’s debt issues are a symptom of China’s deep structural problems. If the crisis spills over wider, gold may benefit, but we are still far from such a scenario. Beijing, we have a problem! Evergrande, one of China’s largest real estate developers and biggest companies in the world, is struggling to meet the interest payments on its debts. As the company has more than $300 billion worth of liabilities, its recent liquidity problems have sparked fears in the financial markets. They also triggered a wave of questions: will Evergrande become a Chinese Lehman Brothers? Is the Chinese economy going to collapse or stagnate? Will Evergrande make gold grand? The answer to the first question is: no, the possible default of Evergrande likely won’t cause a global contagion in the same way as Lehman Brothers did. Why? First of all, Lehman Brothers collapsed because of the run in the repo market and the following liquidity crisis. As the company was exposed to subprime assets, investors lost confidence and the bank lost its access to cheap credit. Lehman Brothers tried to sell its assets, which plunged the prices of a wide range of financial assets, putting other institutions into trouble. Unlike Lehman Brothers, Evergrande is not an investment bank but a real estate developer. It doesn’t have so many financial assets, and it’s not a key player in the repo market. The exposure of important global financial institutions to Evergrande is much smaller. What’s more, we haven’t seen a credit freeze yet, nor an endless wave of selling across almost all asset classes, which took place during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Given that the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy was ultimately positive for gold (although the price of the yellow metal declined initially during the phase of wide sell-offs), the fact that Evergrande probably doesn’t pose similar risks to the global economy could be disappointing for gold bulls. However, gold bulls could warmly welcome my answer to the second question: the case of Evergrande reveals deep and structural problems of China’s economy, namely its heavy reliance on debt and the real estate sector. As the chart below shows, the debt of the private non-financial sector has increased from about 145% of GDP after the Great Recession to 220% in the first quarter of 2021. So, China has experienced a massive increase in debt since the global financial crisis, reaching levels much higher than in the case of other economies. The rise in indebtedness allowed China to continue its economic expansion, but questions arose about the quality and sustainability of that growth. As Daniel Lacalle points out, The problem with Evergrande is that it is not an anecdote, but a symptom of a model based on leveraged growth and seeking to inflate GDP at any cost with ghost cities, unused infrastructure, and wild construction. Indeed, the levels and rates of growth of China’s private debt are similar to the countries that have experienced spectacular financial crises, such as Japan, Thailand, or Spain. But the significance of China’s real estate sector is much higher. According to the paper by Rogoff and Yang, the real-estate sector accounts for nearly 30% of China’s GDP. On the other hand, China has a relatively high savings rate, while debt is mostly of domestic nature. China’s financial ties to the world are not very strong, which limits the contagion risks. What is more, the Chinese government has acknowledged the problem of excessive debts in the private sector and started a few years ago making some efforts to curb it. The problems of Evergrande can be actually seen as the results of these deleveraging attempts. Therefore, I’m not sure whether China’s economy will collapse anytime soon, but its pace of growth is likely to slow down further. The growth model based on debt and investments (mainly in real estate) has clearly reached its limit. In other words, the property boom must end. Rogoff and Yang estimate that “a 20% fall in real estate activity could lead to a 5-10% fall in GDP”. Such growth slowdown and inevitable adjustments in China’s economy will have significant repercussions on the global economy, as – according to some research – China’s construction sector is now the most important sector for the global economy in terms of its impact on global GDP. In particular, the prices of commodities used in the construction sector may decline and the countries that export to China may suffer. Given that China was the engine of global growth for years, it will also slow down, and, with lower production, it’s possible that inflation will be higher. Finally, what do the problems of China’s real estate sector imply for the gold market? Well, in the short term, not so much. Gold is likely to remain under downward pressure resulting from the prospects of the Fed’s tightening cycle. However, if Evergrande’s problems spill over, affecting China’s economy or (a bit later) even the global economy, the situation may change. Other Chinese developers (such as Fantasia or Sinic) also have problems with debt payments, as investors are not willing to finance new issues of bonds. In such a scenario, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset might increase, although investors have to remember that the initial rush could be into cash (the US dollar) rather than gold. Unless China’s problems pose a serious threat to the American economy, the appreciation of the greenback will likely counterweigh the gains from safe-haven inflows into gold. So far, financial markets have remained relatively undisturbed by the Evergrande case. Nevertheless, I will closely monitor any upcoming developments in China’s economy and their possible effects on the gold market. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

  Stocks’ short-term rally came to an end this week and the S&P 500 index entered a consolidation along the 4,700 level. Is this a topping pattern? The S&P 500 index lost 0.35% yesterday, as it fell below the 4,700 price mark following two-day-long consolidation along the Friday’s record high of 4,718.50. The recent rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seems overbought in the short-term and most likely it’s trading within a topping pattern. Today we may see another consolidation or a profit taking action following worse than expected inflation data release (the CPI monthly number came at +0.9% vs. the expected +0.6%). The nearest important support level is at 4,650-4,675 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Lost 0.7% on Tuesday Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index broke above the 16,000 level recently and it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated parabolically above its short-term upward trend line. But yesterday it lost 0.7% and closed below that trend line. The resistance level remains at 16,400, and the short-term support level is at 16,000, among others, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple’s Further Consolidation and Microsoft’s Potential Topping Pattern Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple continues to trade within a consolidation along the $150 level and it is still well below the record highs, and the Microsoft is close to breaking below its over month-long upward trend line. So the tech “megacaps” may be turning lower, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The broad stock market went slightly lower on Tuesday and we may see a downward continuation this morning. The main indices are expected to open 0.2-0.5% lower following worse (higher) than expected consumer inflation number release. It looks like a topping pattern and we may see a downward correction at some point. There may be a profit-taking action following quarterly earnings releases. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 extended its uptrend last week, but since Friday it is trading within a short-term downtrend. But still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDJPY hits temporary resistance The Japanese yen pulled back after a larger-than-expected GDP contraction in Q3. The US dollar is looking to hold onto its gains after a rally above 114.00. Sentiment has recovered and a surge above 114.45 around the October peak would resume the uptrend. However, the current rebound may lack the strength to clear the supply zone right away. An overbought RSI has held the bullish fever back. A breach below 113.70 would lead to a deeper correction towards 112.80, which is a key level to keep the rebound relevant. EURCHF struggles for support The euro bounced higher after the bloc’s industrial production beat expectations in September. The RSI’s oversold situation on the daily chart has attracted bargain hunters’ attention around 1.0530, a demand area from May 2020. Price action had three failed attempts to lift offers at 1.0600, a sign of strong selling pressure to keep the downtrend going. A bullish breakout may trigger a runaway rally as sellers seek to exit a crowded short bet. A bearish one would send the single currency to 1.0490. UK 100 tests support The FTSE 100 edged lower after active job postings in the UK hit a record high. The index came under pressure at the psychological level of 7400. A combination of an overbought RSI and its bearish divergence suggests that the rally was losing momentum. Sentiment remains upbeat and a pullback could be an opportunity to get filled at a better price. Trend followers may be waiting to buy the dip near the first support at 7315. A deeper correction would send the price to 7255 along the 30-day moving average.

Luckily, it is not necessary to time market entry and exit precisely. What is essential is calculating risk itself and that risk to expected returns. In addition, strict management of the trade itself is required. Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, risk versus reward: Gold versus Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 12th, 2021. That being said, instead of getting distracted by a narrative of policymakers who might prolong the inevitable even for years possibly, we focus on the technical aspects that cannot be “rationalized” away and will be unaffected by market influencers. One such fact is the market relationship between silver’s more giant brother gold. The chart above tries to illustrate that gold is trading 10% below its all-time high. On the other hand, silver is trading 50% below its all-time high. This discrepancy makes silver the more desirable play (better risk/reward-ratio). The difference will work like a loaded spring, and once released, silver will outperform gold by a multiple. Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart, gold leading strongly: Gold in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. Now that we have found the right vehicle for a wealth preservation insurance play, we are looking for additional factors. Physical acquisition is a clear prosperous choice. It protects against inflation and the risk possibilities inherent to fiat currency, with much historical evidence. That leaves us the question of entry timing. Especially since the physical purchase has a broader spread and a reactionary lag over spot price trading, which is pretty much instant. The chart above clarifies why we see there to be leeway regarding being “right.” It is less critical to pinpoint the absolute lows versus overall participation. Especially since a lack of physical silver availability, which is a possibility, would erase the whole play. The monthly gold chart above is a strong indication that precious metals might be breaking to the upside. With this month’s strength, price pushing against the upper resistance line (white line) of a bullish triangle, silver prices mutually trailing higher is likely. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, closely following gold: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 13th, 2021. With these necessary positive edges in play, we can now look at silver itself and look for possible low-risk entry points.The monthly chart shows mutual strength over the previous gold chart. Silver has pushed successfully through the problematic distribution zone around the US$24 price level. It still faces POC (point of control), the highest volume node of our fractal analysis, looming above US$26.03. With this many edges in our favor, we find this an excellent spot to add to physical silver holdings from a long-term holding perspective. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, spot price play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 13th, 2021. For a spot price play in the midterm time horizon, we are instead waiting for a possible price bounce of POC. A low-risk entry would be granted once the price retraces back into the US$24 to US$24.50 zone. Reyna Silver encounters multiple high-grade sulphide zones within 54.9 metres of near-source style skarn at Guigui: Silver, the waiting game: In market movement, we see expansion and compression, much like an oscillator. At certain times though, may it be a natural or man-made disaster, we can find ourselves in a stretched or amplified move. These times of abnormality from a time perspective require being well-prepared. Swift, disciplined actions following a clear planned roadmap are advised. An anticipated roadmap strictly followed. It is first a waiting game followed by quick action, both psychologically challenging environments. With physical acquisitions of metals, perfectionism in timing is paralysis. Not necessary to come out ahead. We find silver accumulation at this time to be a prudent measure to protect your wealth. Like buying insurance against an anticipated market turn. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

EURUSD shorts at first resistance at 1.1610/20 are working today USDCAD remains in a sideways range, good for scalping opportunities only as we hold first resistance again at 1.2420/40. Shorts stop above 1.2450. GBPCAD did not break lower but is holding around the low. Today's Analysis. EURUSD first resistance again at 1.1610/20. Shorts need stops above 1.1630. A break higher can target strong resistance at 1.1695/1.1705. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 1.1720. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 1.1765/70 & 1.1800/10. Shorts at 1.1610/20 target 1.1580/75 (hit) perhaps as far as first support at the October low at 1.1530/20 today for profit taking. A break below 1.1510 is a sell signal initially targeting 1.1490 & although this could hold initially (a low for the day certainly possible but longs are risky) we eventually expected to target 1.1430/20. USDCAD first resistance again at 1.2420/40. Shorts stop above 1.2450. Be ready to buy a break above 1.2450 targeting 1.2510/30. Shorts at 1.2420/40 target 1.2370/65 (likely to pause here) then support at 1.2300/1.2280. Longs here need stops below 1.2270. A break lower is a sell signal. GBPCAD hits targets of 1.6950/40 & 1.6910/1.6890 for profit taking on shorts as finally we head for the target of 1.6870/60, perhaps as far as support at 1.6800/1.6780. First resistance at 1.680/90. Shorts need stops above 1.7010. We can try shorts again at 1.7050/70 but must stop above 1.7090. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Commodities are up sharply this year, but several short-term indicators flash caution The medium-longer term bull case remains compelling The chart of commodities ex-gold versus gold offers clues to near-term price action Commodities are on pace for their best annual performance of the century. 2021 has not been a straight line higher, however. There was a period of consolidation during late Q2 through much of Q3. August through mid-October featured another explosive move higher, bringing the GSCI Light Energy index to its highest level in more than seven years. While we are long-term positive on the commodities space, there are mixed signals in the near-term. Breadth has deteriorated while the chart of commodities ex-gold versus gold has gotten extended after dropping to extremely cheap readings last year. It might be time for a pause. Featured Chart: Commodities Ex-Gold vs. Gold Comes Full Circle Sentiment & Positioning Have Soured Another feature that takes away from a positive near-term stance is a drop in bullish sentiment and traders’ positioning. The GSCI Light Energy Index’s consensus bulls reading was nearly two standard deviations above the long-term average at its Q2 peak. Today, the market is less frothy with consensus bulls sporting a Z-score under one. So, while prices have gone up, there is a negative sentiment divergence. Futures positioning shows a similar decoupling. There are fewer speculative net longs in commodities today versus the middle of the year. Excitement has dropped. Perhaps traders are losing interest in commodities as the supply disruption narrative (short-term spike) overshadows the supercycle narrative (longer term bull market). Long-term Upside Remains Likely So, while the near-term picture has turned less encouraging, we are still bullish long-term. Technically, the big breakout that took place a year ago remains alive. A similar breakout occurred in the early 2000s which led to a massive bull run, eventually taking the GSCI Light Energy Index from under 200 to 650. For perspective, the index finished October at 520 as it ventures back into the range from 2010 to mid-2014. Valuations remain compelling, too. Our Commodities Composite Valuation Indicator dropped nearly two standard deviations below its long-term average last year and has now recovered back to neutral. That suggests no barrier to higher prices based on a valuation argument despite the 46% year-on-year rally. The Supercycle May Be Just Beginning We assert the supercycle thesis is intact. The 10-year moving average of year-on-year returns (using the Refinitiv Equal-Weight Commodities Index) dipped negative in 2020—a dismal feat rarely seen in the EW commodities index’s 120-year history. While the 10-year moving average has crept higher in 2021, projections based on our Capital Market Assumptions dataset suggest further upside in the coming decade. Fundamental Factors Finally, a significant macro theme we’ve detailed this year is the dearth in commodities capex which endured a double-dip recession in 2020. While there are one-off supply disruptions in play, the bigger picture theme of extended underinvestment in commodity supply persists. A capex boom—driven by energy firms themselves, the green & EV movements, and increased public infrastructure investment—is likely, which is a source of demand for commodities. Bottom line: We took a bullish stance on commodities in March 2020 with a timeframe of 3-5 years. Our latest Weekly Macro Themes report reiterates the stance but reduces the conviction level based on some near-term mixed signals. The long-run bullish drivers are still there: underinvestment in supply, a robust capex outlook, and continued improvement in global demand for commodities. Follow us on: Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts

The S&P 500 index went sideways on Thursday following a decline from its last week’s high. Is the downward correction over? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The S&P 500 index gained 0.06% on Thursday, as it fluctuated along the 4,650 level. On Wednesday it fell to the local low of 4,630.86 and it was almost 88 points or 1.86% below the last week’s Friday’s record high of 4,718.50. The recent rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seemed overbought in the short-term and traded within a topping pattern. Today the index may extend a short-term consolidation. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq’s Downward Correction Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index broke above the 16,000 level last week and on Friday it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated higher above its short-term upward trend line. But since then it has been retracing the rally. The resistance level remains at 16,400, and the short-term support level is at 16,000, among others, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Remains Relatively Weak, Microsoft Breaks Below the Trend Line Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple came back below the $150 price level. It is still well below the early September record high. Microsoft stock was reaching new record highs recently but on Wednesday it broke below its upward trend line. So the megacaps tech stocks turned lower, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The S&P 500 index was little changed on Thursday and today it is expected to retrace some of its recent declines. So is the downward correction over? For now, there has been no confirmed short-term upward reversal and we may see some more consolidation below the 4,700 mark. The market may go sideways today, as investors keep taking short-term profits off the table following the recent economic and quarterly corporate earnings releases. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 retraced some of its record-breaking rally in the last few trading sessions – for now it looks like a downward correction. Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak, Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 indeed rose but bond markets couldn‘t keep the encouraging opening gains. Can stocks still continue rallying? They look to be setting up for one more downleg of maximum the immediately predecing magnitude, which means not a huge setback. The medium-term path of least resistance remains up – the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022).Stocks are still set for a good Dec and beyond performance – just look at VIX calming down again. It‘s that the debt ceiling drama resolution would allow the Treasury to start issuing fresh debt, and that would weigh heavily on the dollar. That‘s a good part of what gold and silver are sniffing out, and if you look at the great white metal‘s performance, it‘s the result of inflation coming back to the fore as the Fed itself is now admitting to high inflation rates through the mid-2022, putting blame on supply chain bottlenecks. Oh, sure. The real trouble is that inflation expectations are starting to get anchored – people are expecting these rates to be not going away any time soon.Precious metals are going to do great, and keep scoring excellent gains. Surpassing $1,950 isn‘t out of the realm of possibilities, but I prefer to be possitioned aggressively while having more conservative expectations. Not missing a dime this way. Copper is awakening too, and commodities including oil would be doing marvels. If in doubt, look at cryptos, how shallow the corrections there are.A few more words on yields – as more fresh Treasury issued debt enters the markets, look for yields to rise. Coming full circle to stocks and my Friday‘s expectations:(…) TLT though is having trouble declining further, and that means a brief upswing carrying over into stocks, is likely.TLT downswings would be less and less conducive to growth, so if you‘re still heavily in tech, I would start eyeing more value.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are on the move, and let‘s see how far they make it before running into another (mild, again I say) setback.Credit MarketsCredit markets opening strength fizzled out, but the weakness is getting long in the tooth kind of. I view it as a short-term non-confirmation of the S&P 500 upswing only.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are on a tear, and rightfully so – I am looking for further gains as both gold and silver miners confirm, and the macroeconomic environment is superb for PMs.Crude OilCrude oil bulls keep defending the $80 level, with $78 serving as the next stop if need be – after Friday, its test is looking as an increasingly remote possibility – the two lower knots in a series say. Anyway, black gold will overcome $85 before too long.CopperCopper ran while commodities paused – that‘s a very bullish sign, for both base and precious metals. The lower volume isn‘t necessarily a warning sign.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are still consolidating, and the relatively tight price range keeps favoring the bulls – and they‘re peeking higher already.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are holding the short-term upper hand, but the rally may run into headwinds shortly. Still, we‘re looking at a trading range followed by fresh highs as a worst case scenario. Yes, I remain a stock market bull, not expecting a serious setback till probably the third month of 2022. Precious metals are my top pick, followed by copper – and I am definitely not writing off oil, let alone cryptos. Inflation trades are simply back!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

XAUUSD tests trendlineGold continues on its way up as investors seek to hedge against inflationary pressures. The rally picked up steam after a break above the triple top at 1833. Price action is grinding up along a rising trendline.The bulls are pushing towards 1884, a major resistance where last June’s sell-off started. Strong selling pressure is possible in that supply zone as short-term buyers may take profit and reassess the directional bias.1855 on the trendline is the first support. A bearish breakout may trigger a correction to 1823.AUDUSD breaks above bearish channelThe Australian dollar softened after the RBA minutes reiterated that there will be no rate hike until 2024.The pair has found buying interest at the base of October’s bullish breakout (0.7280). A break above the falling channel indicates that sentiment could be turning around.0.7390 is a key resistance and its breach could prompt sellers to bail out. In turn, this would raise volatility in the process. Traders may then switch sides in anticipation of a reversal. An overbought RSI has so far limited the upside impetus.GER 40 rally gains tractionThe Dax 40 climbed after upbeat retail sales and industrial production in China lifted market sentiment.The index is seeking to consolidate its recent gains after it cleared the previous peak at 15990 which has now turned into support. Sentiment remains optimistic and 16300 would be the next step.An overbought RSI on the daily chart may temporarily put the brakes on the bullish fever. But a pullback may once again attract a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd above 15990. A deeper correction may send the price towards 15770.

UK jobless claims (Tuesday 18:00 AEDT) and Oct CPI (Wed 18:00 AEDT) New home prices (today at 12:30 AEDT), Retail sales, industrial production, fixed-asset investment, property investment (all today 13:00 aedt) Aussie Q3 wage data (Wed 11:30 AEDT) RBA gov Lowe speaks (Tues 13:30 AEDT) US retail sales (Wed 00:30 AEDT), Fed speeches all week with the highlight vice-chair Clarida (Sat 04:15 AEDT) The inflation debate is still the hottest ticket in town – it is promoting higher volatility (vol) in rates markets and bonds, with a small pick-up seen in FX volatility (vol). Equity markets are still, however, calm, with the VIX at 16.3% with falling demand to hedge potential drawdown. This divergence in implied vol across asset class remains a key talking point, but there is no doubt that the boat is not yet tipping with correlations among stocks almost at zero, and cyclical sectors (of the S&P500) still holding up well vs defensives. If the US high yield credit spread accelerated above 273bp above the US 10yr Treasury (currently 267bp), then again, I think equities would be a better sell.  Now this dynamic may change, especially if the debt ceiling comes into play in mid-Dec…but what are the signs to look for over a medium-term?  A higher vol regime will make conditions far more prosperous for equity short-sellers and change the dynamics in FX markets, with renewed downside demand for high beta FX (AUD, NZD, CAD, and MXN). The USD will turn from one being driven by pro-cyclical forces – i.e. relative economics and rate settings - to one sought for safe-haven demand, with the JPY also benefiting.  (Implied volatility benchmarks across asset class) Firstly, I would start with the rates markets – we can see a bit over 2 hikes priced into US fed funds future by the end-2022, with rates ‘lift off’ starting in July. I think if we priced in over 3 hikes in 2022 it could become more problematic for risk assets. Looking out the Eurodollar rates curve, we see a reasonably aggressive pace of hikes in 2022 and 2023, but then the pace markedly declines with barely anything priced for 2024 and 2025. In essence, the market sees hikes as front-loaded suggesting the Fed are in fact not dramatically behind the curve – a factor that is one of the core debates in macro.  We see an 89bp differential between the Eurodollar Dec 2025 and Dec 2022 futures contracts – if this moves back to say 140bp then this could be the market feeling that inflation is going to be a far greater problem and rate hikes are being more aggressively priced throughout the next four years. (Orange – US 5y5y forward rate, white – Fed’s long-term dot plot projection) Also, if the US 5y5y forward rate (the markets view on the ‘terminal’ fed funds rate – now 1.94%) pushed above 2.50% (the Fed’s long-term dot plot projection), again, I think this would be a trigger for far higher volatility and risk aversion.  A move to 2.50% won't play out overnight, if at all, and we’ll need to see real evidence that the US labour force participation rate is not going above 62%, while unit labour costs stay elevated and supply chains heal at a glacial pace. However, if the forward rate was eyeing 2.5% I think this could be a factor many strategists will point to for the VIX to sustain a move above 20%. The gold market is perhaps one of the more classic signs of inflationary concerns – this is a play on US ‘real’ (adjusted for inflation expectations) rates though, where the combination of a better economy in Q4, record negative US real rates and rising inflation is one the gold bulls will seek out precious metals. The Fed may need to promote a move higher in real rates, but the knock-on effect is they risk the stock market finding sellers – notably in growth stocks. A downside break of -2% in 5yr US real Treasury’s could be the trigger for gold to push into and above $1900.  Many debate the linkage between inflation expectations and the real economy. I’m not sure it matters when people are feeling the effects for themselves, and much has been made of the recent NFIB small business survey and Friday’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which hit the lowest levels since August 2011.  Clearly inflation is not popular and is increasingly the key political issue – I’d argue if real rates break to new lows this could accelerate inflation hedges, while a move through 2.7% in US 5y5y inflation swaps (currently 2.55%) would also play into the idea that perhaps the Fed, at the very least, need to radically reduce the pace of QE in the December FOMC meeting.  Clearly, the US Nov CPI (released 11 Dec) is going to be a big event for markets to digest and the signs are price pressures will continue to build from the current 6.2% YoY pace.  Crude and gasoline also play a key role in shaping sentiment – Senate Majority Leader Schumer has called on President Biden to release an element of the US’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). This is a factor that has been talked up since OPEC rejected the US’s calls to increase output by more than 400k barrels. However, the introduction of Schumer into the mix just adds fuel to the fire and this may weigh on crude. So, a few indictors I am watching that could spur the market into a belief the Fed are genuinely behind the curve – I’d argue the market isn’t there yet, but if the factors I mention don’t show evidence of dissipating then we could see forward rates move to levels that could highlight the Fed need to act far more intently – that is where risk dynamics could markedly change.

  Stocks retraced some of their recent declines on Friday and the S&P 500 index is expected to open higher this morning. So is the downward correction over? The S&P 500 index gained 0.72% on Friday, Nov. 12, as investor sentiment turned bullish and the market bounced from the support level of around 4,650. On Wednesday it fell to the local low of 4,630.86 and it was almost 88 points or 1.86% below the previous week’s Friday’s record high of 4,718.50. The recent rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seemed overbought in the short-term and traded within a topping pattern. But today the index may get back to the 4,700 level. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Bounced From the 16,000 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. In the previous week the technology index broke above the 16,000 level and it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated higher above its short-term upward trend line. But since then it has been retracing the rally. On Friday the index retraced some of the recent declines, however it remained below its short-term local lows, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Is Still Close to $150, Microsoft Remains Relatively Strong Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple continues to fluctuate along the $150 price level. It is still well below the early September record high. Microsoft stock was reaching new record highs recently but last week it broke below its upward trend line. So those two big cap tech stocks remain mixed, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The S&P 500 index retraced some of its recent declines on Friday and today it is expected to open 0.4% higher. So it looks like a downward correction is over and the market may reach new highs or at least extend a short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. Investors will wait for tomorrow’s Retail Sales number release and some Fed-talk later in the week. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to extend its Friday’s advance this morning and it may get to the 4,700 level. Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

https://investmacro.com/2021/11/the-top-5-companies-added-to-our-stock-market-watchlist-this-quarter/ Body: By InvestMacro The fourth quarter of 2021 is approximately halfway over and we wanted to highlight some of the top companies that have been analyzed by our QuantStock system so far. The QuantStock system is an algorithm that examines each company’s fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall strength trends to pinpoint quality companies. We use it as a stock market ideas generator and to update our stock watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the QuantStock system does not take into consideration the stock price so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices. Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. Here we go with 5 of our Top Stocks halfway through Quarter 4 of 2021: Gilead Sciences Inc. Health Care, Large Cap, 4.29% Dividend, Our Grade = A Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is first up and is a company engaged in developing innovative therapies for life-threatening diseases. Its medicine portfolio includes treatment for conditions ranging from HIV and hepatitis to coronavirus and cardiovascular disorders. If we talk about its financial performance, the bio-pharmaceutical company recently crushed expectations for the third quarter. It posted adjusted earnings of $2.65 per share on revenue of $7.42 billion for the quarter ended September 30. The results easily beat the consensus forecast of $1.76 per share for earnings and $6.29 billion for revenue. If we look at its key financial metrics, Gilead stock is currently trading around $67.48 against its 52-week range of $56.56 – $73.34. Moreover, its P/E value is 11.55, while the company’s total market value is just over $84 billion.   US Steel Materials, Small Cap, 0.77% Dividend, Our Grade = A- United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X), founded in 1901, is one of the leading steel producers in the U.S. The strong demand for steel helped the company post better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter. United States Steel reported adjusted earnings of $5.36 per share for the three months ended September 30, beating expectations of $4.85 per share. Quarterly revenue of $5.96 billion also surpassed the consensus forecast of $5.79 billion. If we look at the recent price movement, United States Steel stock has gained more than 50 percent value so far in 2021. The 52-week range of the stock is $10.72 – $30.57, while the total market value of the company is approx. $7 billion.   Seagate Technology Information Technology, Medium Cap, 3.18% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX) is one of the world’s biggest hard disk drives (HDDs) makers. It still generates a large portion of its revenue by selling traditional HDDs. The company last month announced better-than-expected financial results for its fiscal first quarter, driven by solid demand from cloud data center clients. Seagate reported adjusted earnings of $2.35 per share on revenue of $3.12 billion for the three months ended October 1, while analysts were looking for earnings of $2.21 per share on revenue of $3.11 billion. The impressive financial performance drove Seagate stock higher in recent weeks. Seagate stock is now up nearly 80 percent on a year-to-date basis.   Synchrony Financial Financials, Medium Cap, 1.68% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF) has vast experience in the financial sector. It is one of the biggest credit card issuers in the U.S., working with hundreds of retailers to support their credit card plans. The company last month announced a solid profit for the third quarter. Synchrony reported earnings of $2 per share, significantly higher than 52 cents per share in the comparable period of 2020 and better than the consensus forecast of $1.52 per share. If we see its recent price trend, Synchrony has grown its value at a decent pace so far in 2021. The company’s share price has increased about 47 percent on a year-to-date basis. The 52-week range of the stock is $29.32 – $52.49, while its P/E ratio stands at 7.10.   Lazard Ltd Financials, Small Cap, 3.98% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Lazard Ltd (NYSE: LAZ) specializes in financial advisory and asset management services. It mainly advises clients on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), capital structure, and restructuring plans. It has advised on some of the biggest and most complicated M&A deals of the last century. If we look at its financial performance, Lazard posted mixed results for the third quarter. Its earnings of 98 cents per share exceeded the expectations of 95 cents per share. However, the quarterly revenue of $702 million missed analysts’ average estimate of $715 million. Lazard stock traded mostly lower following the results. Nevertheless, the company’s share price is still up nearly 15 percent on a year-to-date basis. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies. All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Gold rallied thanks to the changed narrative on inflation, and Biden’s infrastructure plan can only add to the inflationary pressure. Huge price moves ahead? I have a short quiz for you! What the government should do to decrease inflation that reached the highest level in 30 years? A) Decrease its expenditure to make room for the Fed to hike the federal funds rate. B) Press the US central bank to tighten its monetary policy. C) Deregulate the markets and lower taxes to boost the supply side of the economy. D) Introduce a huge infrastructure plan that will multiply spending on energy, raw materials, and inputs in general. Please guess which option the US government chose. Yes, the worst possible. Exam failed! At the beginning of November, Congress passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill. And President Biden signed it on Monday (November 15, 2021). To be clear, I’m not claiming that America doesn’t need any investment in infrastructure. Perhaps it needs it, and perhaps it’s a better idea than social spending on unemployment benefits that discourage work. I don’t want to argue about the adequacy of large government infrastructure projects, although government spending generally fails to stimulate genuine economic growth and governments rarely outperform the private sector in effectiveness. My point is that $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending is coming at the worst possible moment. The US economy is facing supply shortages and high inflation caused by surging demand, which choked the ports and factories. In short, too much money is chasing too few goods, and policymakers decided to add additional money into the already blocked supply chains! I have no words of admiration for the intellectual abilities of the members of Congress and the White House! Indeed, the spending plan does not have to be inflationary if financed purely by taxes and borrowing. However, the Fed will likely monetize at least part of the newly issued federal debt, and you know, to build or repair infrastructure, workers are needed, and steel, and concrete, and energy. The infrastructure spending, thus, will add pressure to the ongoing energy crisis and high producer price inflation, not to mention the shortage of workers. Implications for Gold What does the passing of the infrastructure bill imply for the gold market? Well, it should be supportive of the yellow metal. First, it will increase the fiscal deficits by additional billions of dollars (the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will enlarge the deficits by $256 billion). Second, government spending will add to the inflationary pressure, which gold should also welcome. After all, gold recalled last week that it is a hedge against high and accelerating inflation. As the chart below shows, gold not only jumped above the key level of $1,800, but it even managed to cross $1,850 on renewed inflation worries. The infrastructure bill was probably discounted by the traders, so its impact on the precious metals market should be limited. However, generally, all news that could intensify inflationary fears should be supportive of the yellow metal. You see, the narrative has changed. So far, the thinking was that higher inflation implies faster tapering and interest rates hikes and, thus, lower gold prices. This is why gold was waiting on the sidelines for the past several months despite high inflation. Investors also believed that inflation would be transitory. However, the recent CPI report forced the markets to embrace the fact that inflation could be more persistent. What’s more, tapering of quantitative easing started, which erased some downward pressure on gold. Moreover, despite the slowdown in the pace of asset purchases, the Fed will maintain its accommodative stance and stay behind the curve. So, at the moment, the reasoning is that high inflation implies elevated fears, which is good for gold. I have always believed that gold’s more bullish reaction to accelerating inflation was a matter of time. It’s possible that this time has just come. Having said that, investors should remember that market narratives can change quickly. At some point, the Fed will probably step in and send some hawkish signals, which could calm investors and pull some of them out of the gold market. My second concern is that gold could have reacted not to accelerating inflation, but rather to the plunge in the real interest rates. As the chart below shows, the yields on 10-year TIPS have dropped to -1.17, a level very close to the August bottom. When something reaches the bottom, it should rebound later. And if real interest rates start to rally, then gold could struggle again. However, I’ll stop complaining now and allow the bulls to celebrate the long-awaited breakout. It’s an interesting development compared to the last months, that’s for sure! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500 is starting to run into a setback even if VIX doesn‘t reveal that fully. Credit markets going from weakness to weakness spells more short-term woes for stocks – a shallow downswing that feels (and is) a trading range before the surge to new ATHs continues, is likely to materialize in the second half of Nov. We may be in its opening stages – as written yesterday: (…) Can stocks still continue rallying? They look to be setting up for one more downleg of the immediately predecing magnitude, which means not a huge setback. The medium-term path of least resistance remains up – the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022). Stocks are still set for a good Dec and beyond performance. The elephant in the room is (the absence of) fresh debt issuance lifting up the dollar, making it like rising yields more. Not only that these are failing to push value higher, but the tech resilience highlights the defensive nature of S&P 500 performance. Crucially though, precious metals are seeing through the (misleading dollar strength) fog, and are sharply rising regardless. Make no mistake, with the taper reaction, we have seen what I had been expecting (or even better given that I prefer reasonably conservative stance without drumming up expectations either way) – I had been telling you that the hardest times for the metals are before taper. And the magnitude and pace of their upswing casts a verdict on the Fed‘s (likely in)ability to follow through with the taper execution, let alone initiate the rate raising cycle without being laughed off the stage as markets force these regardless of the central planners. The galloping inflation expectations are sending a very clear message: (…) if you look at the great white metal‘s performance, it‘s the result of inflation coming back to the fore as the Fed itself is now admitting to high inflation rates through the mid-2022, putting blame on supply chain bottlenecks. Oh, sure. The real trouble is that inflation expectations are starting to get anchored – people are expecting these rates to be not going away any time soon. Precious metals are going to do great… Copper is awakening too, and commodities including oil would be doing marvels. TLT downswings would be less and less conducive to growth, so if you‘re still heavily in tech, I would start eyeing more value. Let me add the Russell 2000 and emerging markets to the well performing medium-term mix. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls didn‘t make it too far before running into another (mild, again I say) setback – so far, a sideways one. Credit Markets Credit markets renewed their march lower, and unless they turn, the S&P 500 upswings would remain on shaky ground (if and when they materialize). Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver remain on a tear, and even for the breather to unfold, it takes quite an effort. The bears clearly can‘t hope for a trend change. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls keep defending the $80 level, with $78 serving as the next stop if need be – these consecutive lower knots keep favoring the bulls, just when the right catalyst arrives. Whether that takes one or two days or more, is irrelevant – it will happen. Copper Copper ran into an unexpected setback, which however doesn‘t change the outlook thanks to its relatively low volume. I‘m still looking for much higher red metal‘s prices. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are seeing an emerging crack in the dam that doesn‘t tie too well to developments elsewhere. The bulls should step in, otherwise this yellow flag risks turning into a red one. Summary S&P 500 bulls are now holding only the medium-term upper hand as the rally is entering a consolidation phase. Anyway, this trading range would be followed by fresh ATHs, which would power stocks even higher in early 2022. Precious metals have quite some catching up to do, and the long post Aug 2020 consolidation is over. Copper, base metals, oil and agrifoods are likely to keep doing great as inflation expectations show that inflation truly hasn‘t been tamed in the least. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

We find ourselves ensued in various battles. Environmentally, economically, and from a human perspective. As much as it is questionable if coal and oil, centralized money, and wars (attacks on ourselves) hold a prosperous future, change is typically avoided. There have been moments in history where rapid change happened. Most often introduced by a charismatic human being with a compelling principle at a defining moment when a change was needed. S&P 500 Index versus BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, bitcoin an answer to crisis? S&P 500 Index versus Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. The bitcoin idea was born as a response to the crash of 2008. In its principles, diametrical to fiat currencies. Bitcoin is decentralized, limited, deflationary and digital. There is no historical event where increased money printing has resolved economic turmoil. And yet, we have not come up with a better solution, or at least we have not implemented it yet. The chart above shows how shortly after the crash of 2008, the first transaction ever sent on the bitcoin blockchain was completed in January 2009.Coincidence? It took some time until the cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto found traction with his idea reflected in bitcoin’s price rise. Still, it has not just caught up but outperformed the market by a stunning margin. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, don’t underestimate powerful ideas: Bitcoin versus gold and silver in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. Covid provided like a steroid a means to illustrate many shortcomings in a magnified way. The chart above shows that bitcoin speculation was an answer to where many find a more prosperous future compared to precious metals. In addition to fundamentals and technical, the underlying idea and hope for a transitory future got traction when people were most afraid.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, sitting through turmoil with ease: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 16th, 2021. Dissecting markets like this in all their shades and facets is necessary for discovering underlying currents, motivation, and sustainability of trends. In bitcoins case, the found strength of application, beliefs, and principles inherent in bitcoin itself and its traders allows for sitting more easily through its volatility swings. Once the mind grasps reason, it tolerates easier, otherwise hardships to trade a volatile vehicle like bitcoin. With a battle ensured on this magnitude and for an expected long duration, one can accept deep retracements in a more tranquil fashion. The monthly chart above shows that bitcoin might face one of those quick dips that hodlers accept, knowing that the battle isn’t over yet. Bitcoin, a battle for freedom: Mills are grinding slowly. Change typically takes time, and those holding the reign over financial power will certainly not surrender such summoned energies lightly. While this world certainly needs a more adaptive behavior of humanity both for its wellbeing and the planet itself, it is unlikely that a shift, if at all, will be swift. This means that bitcoin is a continued struggle to establish itself. And this will result in continued high volatility for the years to come. As such, it will remain an excellent opportunity for the individual investor. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

EURUSD lacks support The US dollar inched higher after October’s retail sales beat expectations. There has been a lack of interest in the single currency following its fall below the daily support at 1.1530. The divergence between the 20 and 30-hour moving averages indicates an acceleration in the sell-off. The bears are targeting the demand zone around 1.1200 from last July. The RSI’s oversold situation may prompt momentum traders to cover. Though a rebound is likely to be capped by 1.1370 and sellers would be eager to sell into strength. GBPJPY attempts to rebound The sterling recouped losses after Britain’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. On the daily chart, the pair saw support near the 61.8% (152.60) Fibonacci retracement of the October rally. A bullish RSI divergence was a sign that the bearish pressure was fading. A break above 153.60 could be an attempt to turn the mood around. The initial surge may need more support after the RSI shot into the overbought area. Should the pound stay above 152.35-152.60, a rebound would lift it towards 155.20. NAS 100 tests peak The Nasdaq 100 bounces back supported by robust tech earnings. The index showed exhaustion after a four-week-long bull run. A combination of an overbought RSI and its bearish divergence made traders cautious in buying into high valuations. A break below the psychological level of 16000 has triggered a wave of profit-taking. A deeper retreat below 16020 would send the index to the previous peak at 15700 which coincides with the 30-day moving average. On the upside, A rally above 16400 would resume the uptrend.

  If the dollar goes through a corrective downswing, it’s more bullish for gold? Not if a decline in the euro caused gold to rise in the first place. Another day, another new yearly high for the USD Index. The U.S. currency soars just like it has since the beginning of the year, in tune with what I said at that time, (and against what almost everyone else said about its outlook). The rally accelerated recently, with the USD Index soaring by 0.78 this week – and it’s only Wednesday today. So, surely that’s bullish for the USD Index? - one might ask. No. “Bullish” or “bearish” relates to the future, not to the past. In fact, the rally in the USD Index might need a breather as all markets – no matter how bullish or bearish the situation is in them – can’t rally or decline in a straight line, without periodic corrections. The USD Index, gold, silver, mining stocks, and practically all the other markets are no exception from this rule. Even the real estate prices don’t increase over the long run without periodic downturns. As you can see on the above chart, the U.S currency index soared to almost 96 yesterday and it’s after an almost straight-up rally. This rally caused the RSI indicator to move above 70, and this has been a quite precise short-term sell signal this year. In fact, in all cases when we saw it, some kind of short-term correction followed. Based on the size of the current rally, it seems that the current situation is most similar to what we saw in early March and in late June. That’s when we saw short-term declines that took the USDX approximately a full index point lower. In the current case, it could mean a decline back to 95. This would be a perfectly natural thing for the USD Index to do right now, given that the previous resistance (which now serves as support) is located slightly below 95. The support is provided by the late-2020 high and the March 2020 low (not visible on the above chart). So, surely this corrective downswing in the USD Index would cause an even bigger rally in the precious metals sector, right? That’s where things get complicated. You see, the biggest (over 50%) part of the USD Index (which is a weighted average) is the EUR/USD currency pair. Let’s take a look at it. The Euro Index moved sharply lower last week and just like the RSI based on the USD Index flashed a sell signal, the RSI based on the Euro Index flashed a buy signal. Also, the Euro Index just moved to the lower border of its declining trade channel, which is likely to indicate some kind of rebound. Why am I discussing the euro here? Because that’s what’s complicated about the current USD-gold link. The euro recently declined and the prices of silver and gold recently rallied shortly after dovish comments from the eurozone. Namely, while the expansionary nature of fiscal and monetary decisions in the U.S. might be after its peak (with the infrastructure bill signed even despite high inflation numbers), the eurozone is far from limiting its expansionary (i.e., inflationary) policies, and it was just made clear recently. That was bearish for the euro and bullish for the gold price – as more money (euros in this case) would be chasing the same amount of physical gold bars. The point here is that it might have been the decline in the value of the European currency that caused gold to rally, and it had little to do with what happened in the USD Index. Don’t get me wrong, most of the time, the gold-USD link is stable and negative. In some cases, gold shows strength or weakness by refusing to move in tune (and precisely: again) with the U.S. dollar’s movement. But in this case, it seems that it’s not about the U.S. dollar at all (or mostly), but rather about what happened in the Eurozone and euro recently. I marked the recent decline in the euro and the rally in gold with a golden rectangle. The usual link between gold-USD would have one assume that lower USD Index values (due to higher EUR/USD values) would trigger a rally in gold. However, given how things worked and the fact that we saw/heard the news coming from the Eurozone, it seems like this “temporary” and “bearish for the PMs” interpretation would actually prevail. It could also be the case that we see some kind of mixed reply from the precious metals sector when the USD Index and the Euro Index correct. The PMs could for example fall only after the situation regarding the gold-USD link gets back to normal – that is perhaps after both currencies correct. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

MetaTrader & FBS Trader app are two essential tools that every trader should use. Don’t rely only on one, use the power of both as they suit different trader needs. In short, MetaTrader is for trading on a laptop/PC, while the FBS Trader app is perfect for mobile trading. Let’s look at how you can use them! MetaTrader When you want to use a personal computer or laptop for trading, you can choose MetaTrader 4 or 5. They are the two versions of one software program that traders use for opening orders and making an advanced technical analysis. MetaTrader offers different technical tools and allows using trading robots (expert advisors). Besides, you can use the FBS Forex broker app to manage your MetaTrader accounts and control finances. FBS Trader app If you want to trade with your mobile phone or just don’t have an opportunity to trade with a PC at the moment, the FBS Trader app is the best choice. Indeed, we can’t sit in front of our personal computers and monitor trades all day long. What to do? The solution is to have the FBS Trader app on your mobile phone and be able to open/close a trade in just one click wherever you are. It’s handy that all your active orders are gathered in a separate section. Besides, imagine that some economic news comes out that can impact your opened trades but you are not nearby your PC. It wouldn’t be a problem if you have the FBS Trader app on your phone. In addition, this app has a built-in economic calendar that allows traders to follow impactful news and analyze the charts without leaving the app. For example, the Bank of England left the rates unchanged during its meeting on November 4, while it was expected to raise them. As a result, the British pound weakened, and GBP/USD dropped. As you may notice in the chart below, you can add technical indicators in the FBS Trader app. In that case, Bollinger Bands could help a trader to confirm the bearish momentum as bands were moving in a narrow range and the price broke through the lower band. Finally, the FBS Trader app allows you to manage your funds freely without leaving the app. You can deposit and withdraw them easily in a few clicks. All in all, MetaTrader and the FBS Trader app are the perfect combination for trading. Enjoy using them!

GBPUSD bounces higher The pound inched higher after the UK’s inflation soared to 4.2% in October. Sentiment remains pessimistic after a botched rebound from the demand zone at 1.3420. However, an oversold RSI has attracted some buying interest. Its bullish divergence suggests a slowdown in the sell-off, prompting momentum traders to take profit and look for the next breakout. The sterling may bounce back if the bulls succeed in keeping it above 1.3380. 1.3530 would be the first hurdle. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the pair to 1.3200. USDCAD reaches new high The Canadian dollar fell back after the annual inflation rate matched the consensus. Following the greenback’s rally from the demand zone at 1.2300, a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that the current rebound is picking up steam. As a sign of strong commitment, buyers were eager to keep price action above 1.2480 when the RSI flirted with the oversold area. A break above 1.2600 may trigger an extended rally towards the daily resistance at 1.2760. 1.2540 is fresh support in case of a pullback. USOIL falls through key support WTI crude tumbled after OPEC warned of supply surplus. The rally has stalled after the bulls struggled to lift offers at 85.00. On the daily timeframe, the RSI’s double top in the overbought area indicates an overextension. A break below 79.00 has led to profit-taking and put the long side under pressure. 81.60 is now a fresh resistance from the latest sell-off. The buy-side will need to achieve new highs before they could bring in momentum interest. Failing that, 75.00 is a key floor to keep price action afloat.

By InvestMacro The fourth quarter of 2021 is approximately halfway over and we wanted to highlight some of the top companies that have been analyzed by our QuantStock system so far. The QuantStock system is an algorithm that examines each company’s fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall strength trends to pinpoint quality companies. We use it as a stock market ideas generator and to update our stock watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the QuantStock system does not take into consideration the stock price so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices. Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. Here we go with 5 of our Top Stocks halfway through Quarter 4 of 2021: Gilead Sciences Inc. Health Care, Large Cap, 4.29% Dividend, Our Grade = A Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is first up and is a company engaged in developing innovative therapies for life-threatening diseases. Its medicine portfolio includes treatment for conditions ranging from HIV and hepatitis to coronavirus and cardiovascular disorders. If we talk about its financial performance, the bio-pharmaceutical company recently crushed expectations for the third quarter. It posted adjusted earnings of $2.65 per share on revenue of $7.42 billion for the quarter ended September 30. The results easily beat the consensus forecast of $1.76 per share for earnings and $6.29 billion for revenue. If we look at its key financial metrics, Gilead stock is currently trading around $67.48 against its 52-week range of $56.56 – $73.34. Moreover, its P/E value is 11.55, while the company’s total market value is just over $84 billion. US Steel Materials, Small Cap, 0.77% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Free Reports: Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis. United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X), founded in 1901, is one of the leading steel producers in the U.S. The strong demand for steel helped the company post better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter. United States Steel reported adjusted earnings of $5.36 per share for the three months ended September 30, beating expectations of $4.85 per share. Quarterly revenue of $5.96 billion also surpassed the consensus forecast of $5.79 billion. If we look at the recent price movement, United States Steel stock has gained more than 50 percent value so far in 2021. The 52-week range of the stock is $10.72 – $30.57, while the total market value of the company is approx. $7 billion. Seagate Technology Information Technology, Medium Cap, 3.18% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX) is one of the world’s biggest hard disk drives (HDDs) makers. It still generates a large portion of its revenue by selling traditional HDDs. The company last month announced better-than-expected financial results for its fiscal first quarter, driven by solid demand from cloud data center clients. Seagate reported adjusted earnings of $2.35 per share on revenue of $3.12 billion for the three months ended October 1, while analysts were looking for earnings of $2.21 per share on revenue of $3.11 billion. The impressive financial performance drove Seagate stock higher in recent weeks. Seagate stock is now up nearly 80 percent on a year-to-date basis. Synchrony Financial Financials, Medium Cap, 1.68% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF) has vast experience in the financial sector. It is one of the biggest credit card issuers in the U.S., working with hundreds of retailers to support their credit card plans. The company last month announced a solid profit for the third quarter. Synchrony reported earnings of $2 per share, significantly higher than 52 cents per share in the comparable period of 2020 and better than the consensus forecast of $1.52 per share. If we see its recent price trend, Synchrony has grown its value at a decent pace so far in 2021. The company’s share price has increased about 47 percent on a year-to-date basis. The 52-week range of the stock is $29.32 – $52.49, while its P/E ratio stands at 7.10. Lazard Ltd Financials, Small Cap, 3.98% Dividend, Our Grade = A- Lazard Ltd (NYSE: LAZ) specializes in financial advisory and asset management services. It mainly advises clients on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), capital structure, and restructuring plans. It has advised on some of the biggest and most complicated M&A deals of the last century. If we look at its financial performance, Lazard posted mixed results for the third quarter. Its earnings of 98 cents per share exceeded the expectations of 95 cents per share. However, the quarterly revenue of $702 million missed analysts’ average estimate of $715 million. Lazard stock traded mostly lower following the results. Nevertheless, the company’s share price is still up nearly 15 percent on a year-to-date basis. By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies. All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

  Inflation expectations reached a record high. Is gold preparing a counterattack to punish gold bears? In a , nobody expects the Spanish inquisition. In the current marketplace, everyone expects high inflation. As the chart below shows, the inflation expectations embedded in US Treasury yields have recently risen to the highest level since the series began in 2003. Houston, we have a problem, an unidentified object is flying to the moon! The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, which is the difference between the yields on ordinary Treasury bonds and inflation-protected Treasuries with the same maturity, soared to 2.76% on Monday. Meanwhile, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate surged to 3.17%. The numbers show the Treasury market’s measure of average CPI annual inflation rates over five and ten years, respectively. The chart is devastating for the Fed’s reputation if there’s anything left. You probably remember how the US central bank calmed investors, saying that we shouldn’t worry about inflation because inflation expectations are well-anchored. No, they don’t! Of course, the current inflation expectations oscillate around 3%, so they indicate that the bond market is anticipating a pullback in the inflation rate from its current level. Nevertheless, the average of 3% over ten or even just five years would be much above the Fed’s target of 2% and would be detrimental for savers in particular, and the US economy in general. I’ve already shown you market-based inflation expectations, which are relatively relaxed, but please take a look at the chart below, which displays the consumer expectations measured by the New York Fed’s surveys. As one can see, the median inflation expectations at the one-year horizon jumped 0.4 percentage point in October, to 5.7%. So much for the inflation expectations remaining under control!   Implications for Gold Surging inflation expectations are positive for the gold market. They should lower real interest rates and strengthen inflationary worries. This is because the destabilized inflation expectations may erode the confidence in the US dollar and boost inflation in the future. So, gold could gain as both an inflation hedge and a safe haven. And, importantly, the enlightened Fed is likely to remain well behind the curve in setting its monetary policy. This is even more probable if President Biden appoints Lael Brainard as the new Fed Chair. She is considered a dove, even more dovish than Powell, so if Brainard replaces him, investors should expect to see interest rates staying lower for longer. So, inflation expectations and actual inflation could go even higher. Hence, the dovish Fed combined with high inflation (and a slowdown in GDP growth) creates an excellent environment for gold to continue its rally. After all, the yellow metal has broken out after several months of consolidation (as the chart below shows), so the near future seems to be brighter. There are, of course, some threats for gold, as risks are always present. If the US dollar continues to strengthen and the real interests rebound, gold may struggle. But, after the recent change, the sentiment seems to remain positive. Anyway, I would like to return to the market-based inflation expectations and the famous Monty Python sketch. With an inflation rate of 3%, which is the number indicated by the bond market, the capital will halve in value in just 24 years! So, maybe it would be a too-far-reaching analogy, but Monty Python inquisitors wanted to use a rack to torture heretics by slowly increasing the strain on their limbs and causing excruciating physical pain (luckily, they were not the most effective inquisitors!). Meanwhile, inflation hits savers by slowly decreasing the purchasing power of money and causing significant financial pain. With the inflation rate at about 6%, hedging against inflation is a no-brainer. It’s a matter of financial self-defense! You don’t have to use gold for this purpose – but you definitely can. After several disappointing months, and the lack of gold’s reaction to inflation, something changed, and gold has managed to break out above $1,800. We will see how it goes on. I will feel more confident about the strength of the recent rally when gold rises above $1,900. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

USDCHF seeks support The US dollar stalled after weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected. The pair’s attempt above the daily resistance at 0.9310 suggests that the bulls may have gained the upper hand. Intraday buyers’ profit-taking led by the RSI’s overbought situation has caused a limited pullback. Buyers may see dips as an opportunity to get in at a discount. Bids could be around the resistance-turned-support at 0.9235. 0.9330 is a fresh resistance. And its breach may trigger an extended rally towards last April’s peak at 0.9450. NZDUSD bounces off demand area The New Zealand dollar inches higher as traders are positioning for an RBNZ rate hike next week. From the daily chart’s perspective, the pair has bounced off the demand zone near the psychological level of 0.7000. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the bearish momentum, a sign that sentiment could be turning around. An oversold RSI has attracted buying interest. A rally above 0.7060 would prompt sellers to cover, paving the way for a recovery towards 0.7175. A break below 0.6980 may drive the kiwi to 0.6900. US30 struggles to rally back The Dow Jones is under pressure as investors fear that inflation could choke off economic recovery. The index has been struggling to reclaim the landmark 36000, which coincides with the 20-day moving average. The faded rebound suggests exhaustion after a month-long breakneck rally. The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area has attracted buying interest. Though buyers may stay cautious unless the first resistance at 36180 is lifted. On the downside, the previous peak at 35500 has turned into the next support.

S&P 500 rose, once again driven by tech and not value. That‘s still defensive, mirroring the weak credit markets posture. While waiting for bonds to turn – not that there wouldn‘t be an optimistic HYG open yesterday – the Austria lockdown news sent markets into a tailspin, the fear being good part of Europe would follow suit rather sooner than later. Oil has taken the crown of panicked selling, stocks held up better, and precious metals weren‘t changed much. Sure, any crippling of European economic activity would take a toll at the most sensitive commodities, but in light of energy policies across much of the Western world, it‘s my view that oil prices would be affected only in the short-term. This isn‘t a repeat of the Apr 2020 liquidation sending black gold negative. Rest of the world would be happy to step in, U.S. included, as we‘re entering winter with comparatively very low stockpiles from oil to copper – and don‘t get me started on silver. If you want green economy, these metals are essential, and oil is still in huge demand in the interim. Fed money printing hasn‘t vanished, debt ceiling awaits, and dollar is so far still solidly underpinned. Banking sector and emerging markets performance isn‘t panicky, but some time for stocks to come back at ATHs, is needed. Precious metals resilience is encouraging for commodities, which need the most time to recover (eyes on energy). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls have the upper hand, but short-term volatility and uncertainty is creeping in. Still, there is no sinking the bull right here, right now. Credit Markets Tentative signs of credit markets stabilization are here, and HYG turnaround to last, is the missing sign. I‘m though not looking for risk-off slant to disappear, which would slow down the coming rise in yields. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are still consolidating, and the more time passes at current levels, the less opportunity the bears have. The chart remains very bullish as precious metals are anticipating inflation to come. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are facing spanner in the works today, and it‘s my view the sellers wouldn‘t get too far. I‘m looking at oil sector to presage that. Copper The copper setback was soundly bought, and commodities hardly sold off, the same for other base metals. I still like the chart posture – favors the bulls. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bears took the gauntlet, and another opportunity to pause might be here. I‘m not yet optimistic prices would hold out before the upleg resumes. Summary S&P 500 bulls keep hanging in there, as if waiting for bonds to come to their senses. The credit markets non-confirmation being probably in its latter stages, was my yesterday‘s point – but with corona panic returning, all short-term bets are off. Looking at the big picture, energy hasn‘t been fixed, precious metals are set to rise sharply, and inflation hasn‘t yet knocked off stocks or the real economy. Look for VIX to keep rising from the current 17.50 level. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Powell vs Brainard Fed chair nomination  Covid trends and restrictions in Europe US core PCE inflation (Thursday at 2 am AEDT) RBNZ and Riksbank central bank meeting US cash markets shut Thursday for Thanksgiving (Pepperstone US equity indices still open)  Eurozone PMI (Tuesday 20:00aedt) – ECB speakers in play BoE speakers to drive the GBP – will they cast doubt on a December hike? With Covid risks on the rise in Europe and ultimately restrictions being implemented we’ve seen renewed selling interest in the EUR, and the oil-exporting currencies (NOK, CAD, MXN). Certainly, the NOK was the weakest G10 currency last week, and GBPNOK has been a great long position – a pair to trade this week, but consider it is up for 9 straight days and has appreciated 5.2% since late October.  I questioned last week if the divergence in EURCHF plays out, and the break of 1.05 negates that, suggesting staying short this cross for now as the CHF is still a preferred safe-haven.  EURUSD has been in free-fall EURUSD has been in free-fall and will likely get the lion’s share of attention from clients looking for a play on growing restrictions and tensions across Europe. The pair has lost 3.5% since rejecting the 50-day MA on 28 Oct and has consistently been printing lower lows since May – predominantly driven by central bank divergence and a growing premium of 2-year US Treasuries over German 2yr - with the spread blowing out from 78bp to 128bp, in favour of USD. For momentum, trend followers and tactical traders, short EUR remains attractive here.  It will be interesting to see if we see any pickup in shorting activity in EU equities – notably the GER40, with the German govt warning of lockdowns ahead. A market at all-time highs (like the GER40) is a tough one to short, but if this starts to roll over then I’d go along for a day trade. There is a raft of ECB speakers also to focus on, notably with President Lagarde due to speak on Friday.  Playing restrictions through crude While we can play crude moves in the FX, equity and ETF space, outright shorts in crude have been looking compelling. Although we see SpotCrude now sitting on huge horizontal support and a break here brings in the 50-day MA. Of course, as oil and gasoline fall, the prospect of a release of the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) diminishes, however, the Biden administration could use this move lower move to their advantage and capitalize to keep the pressure on.  (SpotCrude daily) A rise in restrictions also means market neutral strategies (long/short) should continue to work, and long tech/short energy has been popular. We can express this in our ETF complex, with the XOP ETF (oil and gas explorers) -8.1% last week and that works as a high beta short leg. Long IUSG (growth) or the QQQ ETF against this would be a good proxy on the opposing leg. In fact, looking at the moves in Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon, and we can see these ‘safe haven’ stocks are working well again, as is Tesla although for different reasons.  Stocks for the trend-followers For the ‘buy strong’ crowd, I have scanned our equity universe for names above both their 5- and 20-day MA AND at 52-week highs. Pull up a daily chart of any of these names - they should nearly always start at the bottom left, and end top right. Playing the RBNZ meeting tactically By way of event risks, the RBNZ meeting (Wed 12:00 AEDT) is one of the more interesting events to focus on. Will the RBNZ raise by 25bp or 50bp? That is the question, and of 19 calls from economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) we see 17 calling for a 25bp hike – yet the markets are fully pricing not just a 25bp hike but a 43% chance of 50bp – from a very simplistic perceptive if the RBNZ hike by ‘just’ 25bp, choosing a path of least regret, then we could see a quick 25- to 30-pip move lower in the NZD. The focus then turns to the outlook and whether the 8 further hikes priced over the coming 12 months seems to be one shared by the RBNZ.  Traders have been keen to play NZD strength via AUD, as it is more a relative play and doesn’t carry the risk on/off vibe, which you get with the USD and JPY. I’d be using strength in AUDNZD as an opportunity to initiate shorts, especially with views that RBNZ Gov Orr could talk up the possibility of inter-meeting rate hikes.  GBP to be guided by the BoE Chief The GBP is always a play clients gravitate to, with GBPUSD and EURGBP always two of the most actively traded instruments in our universe. A 15bp hike is priced for the 16 Dec BoE meeting after last week’s UK employment and inflation data, but consider we also get UK PMI data (Tuesday 20:30 AEDT), and arguably, more importantly, speeches from BoE Governor Bailey and chief economist Huw Pill – perhaps this time around expectations of hikes can be better guided – although, a bit of uncertainty into central bank meetings is very pre-2008 and makes things a little spicy/interesting.  (BoE speakers this week) GBPUSD 1-week implied volatility is hardly screaming movement, and at 6.5% sits at the 10th percentile of its 12-month range. The implied move is close to 130pips, so the range at this juncture (with a 68.2% level of confidence), although I multiple this by 0.8 to get closer to the options breakeven rate. So at this stage, 100 pips (higher or lower) is the sort of move the street is looking for over the coming five days, putting a range of 1.3557 to 1.3349 in play – one for the mean reversion players. Personally, I would let it run a bit as that volatility seems a little low, and a break of 1.3400 could see volatility pick up. I’d certainly be looking for downside if that gave way.  Happy trading.

Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, strong along gold: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart illustrates price behavior over the last 15 months. Silver prices are trading near the center of the sideways range. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart, rumors shrugged off: Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. The weekly chart of gold isn’t much different from where prices stand. In short, there is no evidence that gold has lost its luster. Otherwise, we would see silver trading in a relationship much lower. Rumors are just that – rumors! Silver is shrugging them off. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, room to go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of November 20th, 2021. A historical review with a quarterly chart over the last eighteen years reveals that silver prices can sustain extreme extensions from the mean (yellow line) for extended periods. Using the extreme of the second quarter in 2011 as a projective measurement (orange vertical line) for an upcoming target would provide for a price target more than 10% above all-time highs at US$56. In addition, the chart shows that we find ourselves in a strong quarter so far, which is in alignment with cyclical probabilities. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, prepping the play: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 20th, 2021. Trade setup Let us return to the weekly time frame for a possible low-risk entry scenario with this target in mind.We find a supply zone based on fractal transactional volume analysis near the price of US$24.11 and US$22.65. Both attractive entry zones for excellent risk/reward-ratio plays.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver, shrugging off attacks: It will not be rumors, doubts, and speculations that will be the catalyst for silvers’ success or failure. It isn’t a question of “if,” but just a question of “when” we will see the next massive price advance in this precious metal. The odds are stacked too much in favor of a continued price movement up that the long-term investor should let doubts allow for diverging from a splendid opportunity to partake in wealth preservation and a very profitable way to participate in a chance rarely presented this prominent. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 20th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold bullish, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Summary:  This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 16. The report shows the reaction to the US inflation shock on November 11 which among others drove strong demand for gold and more surprisingly a reduction in the dollar long. Also another strong week for most agriculture commodities with positions in coffee and KCB wheat hitting fresh multi-year highs Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 16. A week where the market responded to the US inflation shock on November 11 by sending  the dollar up by 2% to fresh high for the cycle while 10-year breakeven yields jumped 20 basis point a decade high. While bond market volatility jumped, stocks held steady with the VIX showing a small decline. The commodity sector was mixed with gains in precious metals and not least grains and soft commodities helping offset weakness across the energy sector.  Commodities Hedge funds raised their total commodity exposure, measured in lots, across 24 major futures contracts by the most since July. Driven by continued strong price action across the agriculture sector and more recently also precious metals in response to surging inflation. These sectors saw all but one market being bought while the energy sector were mixed with continued selling of crude oil only being partly offset by demand for gasoline and natural gas. Energy: Crude oil’s four week slide resulted in the biggest weekly reduction since July, and this time, as opposed to recent weeks, it was WTI that led the reduction with a 10% cut to 307k apart from a deteriorating short-term technical outlook also being driven the prospect of a US stockpile release to dampen domestic gasoline prices. Brent meanwhile saw its net long slump to a one-year low at 221.5k lots, and during the past six weeks the net length has now slumped by one-third, a reduction which gathered momentum after the late October failure to break the 2018 high at $86.75, now a double top. Crude oil comment from our daily Market Quick Take: Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSDEC21) opened softer in Asia after Friday’s big drop but has so far managed to find support at $77.85, the previous top from July. The market focus has during the past few weeks shifted from the current tight supply to the risk of a coordinated reserve release, fears about a renewed Covid-driven slowdown in demand and recent oil market reports from the EIA and IEA pointing to a balanced market in early 2022. Having dropped by around 10% from the recent peak, the market may have started to conclude that a SPR release has mostly been price in by now. Metals: Another week of strong gold buying has now raised the alarm bells given the risk of long liquidation should the yellow metal fail to hold onto its US CPI price boost above $1830. Last week the net long in gold reached a 14-month high at 164k lots and the speed of the accumulation, especially the 70% jump during the past two weeks alone carries, will be raising a red flag for tactical trading strategies looking for pay day on short positions should support give way.  Gold extended Friday’s drop below $1850 overnight, before bouncing ahead of key support in the mentioned $1830-35 area. The risk of a quicker withdrawal of Fed stimulus supporting real yields and the dollar has for now reduced gold's ability to build on the technical breakout. However, the price softness on Friday helped attract ETF buying with Bloomberg reporting a 10 tons increase, the biggest one-day jump since January 15. A second week of silver buying lifted the net to a four-week high at 35.9k lots, but still below the May peak at 47.8k lots. Copper’s rangebound trading behavior kept the price and the net long unchanged. The latter due to an even size addition of both new long and short positions. Agriculture: Broad gains across the grains market lifted the combined long across the six most traded contracts to a six-month high at 560k lots. Buyers returned to soybeans after the net long recently hit a 17-month low, the corn long was the biggest since May while the KCB wheat long at 60.6k lots was the highest since August 2018. Supported by an increasingly worrying supply outlook, coffee speculators lifted their net long by 16% to a five-year high at 55k lots. Cotton and sugar longs also rose while short-covering helped halve the cocoa net short. More on the reasons behind the current strength in wheat and coffee, and agriculture in general can be found in may recent update: Agriculture rally resumes led by coffee, wheat and sugar ForexIn a surprise response to the US inflation shock on November 11 speculators ended up making a small reduction in their overall dollar long against ten IMM futures and the Dollar index. Selling of euro in response to the 2.4% drop and a 161% increase in the sterling short to a 17 month high ended up being more than off-set by the buying of all other major currencies, most notably JPY and CHF. The result being a fifth weekly reduction in the dollar long to $21.3 billion, now down by 17% reduction from the near 30-month high reached during October. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

November 20, 2021 By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 16th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT Currency data this week is the second straight decline in British pound sterling speculative positions. The pound sterling speculator contracts dropped sharply for the second consecutive week this week and have now fallen by a total of -46,646 contracts over just this two-week time period. These declines have pushed the overall speculative position into a bearish sentiment level of -31,599 contracts which marks the lowest standing of the past seventy-six weeks, dating back to June 2nd of 2020. The GBPUSD currency pair has been under pressure since the middle of October and fallen from around 1.3800 exchange rate to just above the 1.3435 level currently, a drop of almost 400 pips. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Nov-16-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index EUR 705,698 86 -3,826 34 -26,985 68 30,811 25 JPY 252,897 91 -93,126 10 115,758 94 -22,632 1 GBP 207,099 43 -31,599 51 41,182 54 -9,583 36 MXN 170,102 33 -47,655 2 46,127 99 1,528 50 AUD 166,688 57 -61,153 27 69,858 71 -8,705 31 CAD 148,955 30 8,709 62 -26,717 35 18,008 74 USD Index 59,387 88 34,908 86 -40,455 7 5,547 77 RUB 52,624 58 22,625 67 -23,936 31 1,311 70 CHF 49,320 27 -8,889 54 18,767 52 -9,878 34 NZD 42,945 30 13,965 95 -15,521 6 1,556 70 BRL 31,767 32 -15,698 48 15,743 54 -45 66 Bitcoin 13,648 78 -1,478 69 357 0 1,121 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,448 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. Free Reports: Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Watch List this Quarter - Here are the Stock Symbols that stood out so far in the fourth quarter of 2021. Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.   US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 3.4 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 71.5 3.5 – Net Position: 34,908 -40,455 5,547 – Gross Longs: 47,959 2,000 7,621 – Gross Shorts: 13,051 42,455 2,074 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.0 7.4 77.2 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.0 -2.7 -13.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,773 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 57.3 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.6 61.1 8.4 – Net Position: -3,826 -26,985 30,811 – Gross Longs: 198,181 404,266 90,261 – Gross Shorts: 202,007 431,251 59,450 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.8 68.1 25.4 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.7 -5.2 -0.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,093 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.4 61.4 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.6 41.5 15.9 – Net Position: -31,599 41,182 -9,583 – Gross Longs: 50,443 127,197 23,322 – Gross Shorts: 82,042 86,015 32,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.2 54.0 35.8 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 9.2 -8.1   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,351 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 80.5 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.6 34.7 17.6 – Net Position: -93,126 115,758 -22,632 – Gross Longs: 24,635 203,468 21,790 – Gross Shorts: 117,761 87,710 44,422 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.4 93.7 0.8 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 15.5 -4.1   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,043 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.2 64.2 24.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 26.1 44.5 – Net Position: -8,889 18,767 -9,878 – Gross Longs: 5,502 31,663 12,048 – Gross Shorts: 14,391 12,896 21,926 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.4 52.0 34.3 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.9 -12.2 11.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,104 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 42.1 27.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.8 60.0 15.0 – Net Position: 8,709 -26,717 18,008 – Gross Longs: 44,147 62,689 40,389 – Gross Shorts: 35,438 89,406 22,381 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.3 34.9 74.0 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.6 -26.4 10.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.5 67.2 11.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.1 25.3 17.1 – Net Position: -61,153 69,858 -8,705 – Gross Longs: 30,760 112,044 19,744 – Gross Shorts: 91,913 42,186 28,449 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.1 71.0 31.2 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.1 -29.0 24.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,882 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 61.4 24.1 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 60.2 7.8 – Net Position: 13,965 -15,521 1,556 – Gross Longs: 26,388 10,349 4,923 – Gross Shorts: 12,423 25,870 3,367 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.7 6.5 69.7 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.9 -11.8 19.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,407 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.1 55.3 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.2 28.2 2.2 – Net Position: -47,655 46,127 1,528 – Gross Longs: 69,984 94,074 5,245 – Gross Shorts: 117,639 47,947 3,717 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.5 98.8 49.5 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 5.6 -1.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,458 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.7 64.6 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.1 15.0 8.2 – Net Position: -15,698 15,743 -45 – Gross Longs: 8,468 20,507 2,545 – Gross Shorts: 24,166 4,764 2,590 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 4.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.6 54.4 66.3 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.9 19.3 -12.9   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 22,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,703 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.7 37.7 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 83.2 2.1 – Net Position: 22,625 -23,936 1,311 – Gross Longs: 30,357 19,849 2,418 – Gross Shorts: 7,732 43,785 1,107 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.9 30.7 70.2 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.2 -3.3 -20.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,467 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.4 5.0 14.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.2 2.4 6.5 – Net Position: -1,478 357 1,121 – Gross Longs: 8,649 678 2,008 – Gross Shorts: 10,127 321 887 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 2.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.7 71.4 22.9 – COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -20.8 4.5 Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

While the dollar is on a tear, precious metal stocks have gotten away with it lately. But how long will their resistance last? The USD Index (USDX) After the USD Index’s negative response to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 28, I warned on Oct. 29 that dollar bears were unlikely to celebrate for much longer. I wrote: Based on the rather random comment during the conference, the traders panicked and bought the EUR/USD, which triggered declines in the USD Index (after all, the EUR/USD is the largest component of the USDX). Was the breakout to new 2021 lows invalidated? No. The true breakout was above the late-March highs (the August highs also served as a support level, but the March high is more important here) and it wasn’t invalidated. What was the follow-up action? At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is up and trading at about 93.52, which is just 0.07 below the August high in terms of the closing prices. Consequently, it could easily be the case that the USD Index ends today’s session (and the week) back above this level. You’ve probably heard the saying that time is more important than price. It’s the end of the month, so let’s check what happened in the case of previous turns of the month; that’s where we usually see major price turnarounds. I marked the short-term turnarounds close to the turns of the month with horizontal dashed blue lines, and it appears that, in the recent past, there was practically always some sort of a turnaround close to the end of the month. Consequently, seeing a turnaround (and a bottom) in the USD index now would be perfectly normal. And with the USD Index making quick work of 94, 95, and now 96, the greenback’s rally continues to gain steam. What’s more, the USD Index also surged above its late 2020 resistance and 98 should be the next bullish milestone. More importantly, however, gold, silver, and mining stocks are sensing that something is amiss. For example, while they largely ignored the USD Index’s recent ascent, their negative correlations resurfaced last week (on a very short-term basis, so far, but still). Moreover, while the precious metals’ recent rallies were likely euro-weakness-driven and not USD Index-strength-driven, the dollar basket’s uprising should elicit more pain for gold, silver, and mining stocks over the medium term. To explain, I wrote on Nov. 17: The euro recently declined and the prices of silver and gold recently rallied shortly after dovish comments from the eurozone. Namely, while the expansionary nature of fiscal and monetary decisions in the U.S. might be after its peak (with the infrastructure bill signed even despite high inflation numbers), the eurozone is far from limiting its expansionary (i.e., inflationary) policies, and it was just made clear recently. That was bearish for the euro and bullish for the gold price – as more money (euros in this case) would be chasing the same amount of physical gold. The point here is that it might have been the decline in the value of the European currency that caused gold to rally, and it had little to do with what happened in the USD Index. Don’t get me wrong, most of the time, the gold-USD link is stable and negative. In some cases, gold shows strength or weakness by refusing to move in tune (and precisely: again) with U.S. dollar’s movement. But in this case, it seems that it’s not about the U.S. dollar at all (or mostly), but rather about what happened in the Eurozone and euro recently. As a result, with the USD Index likely to take the lead in the coming months, the precious metals should suffer along the way. For context, the USD Index is approaching overbought territory and a short-term decline to ~95 isn’t out of the question. However, it’s more of a possibility than a given. Moreover, the greenback’s medium-term outlook remains robust, and any short-term pullback is likely a corrective downswing within a medium-term uptrend. Circling back to the euro, I’ve been warning for months that the Euro Index was materially overvalued and that a sharp re-rating would likely unfold. I wrote previously: The next temporary stop could be ~1.1500 (the March 2020 highs, then likely lower). For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and that’s why the euro’s behavior is so important. And after the Euro Index sunk to a new 2021 low last week, the European currency has officially fallen off a cliff. To that point, after breaking below the declining support line of its monthly channel, a drawdown to ~111 is likely next in line (which is signaled by the breakdown below its bearish head & shoulders pattern). The Euro Index is near oversold territory and a short-term bounce may ensue, but the bearish medium-term implications remain intact. Please see below: Adding to our confidence (don’t get me wrong, there are no certainties in any market; it’s just that the bullish narrative for the USDX is even more bullish in my view), the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around). Furthermore, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration. Again, the recent move higher in the USD Index doesn’t necessarily apply in the case of the above rule, as it was not the strength of the USD but weakness in the euro that has driven it. Likewise, with the USD Index now approaching its long-term rising support line (which is now resistance), a rally above the upward sloping black line below would invalidate the prior breakdown and support a move back above 100. However, with the dollar basket’s weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) now above 70, a short-term consolidation may ensue. Conversely, please note that the recent medium-term rally has been calmer than any major upswing witnessed over the last 20 years where the USD Index’s RSI has hit 70. I marked the recent rally in the RSI with an orange rectangle and I did the same with the second-least and third-least volatile of the medium-term upswings. The sharp rallies in 2008 and 2014 were of much larger magnitudes. And in those historical analogies, the USD Index continued its surge for some time without suffering any material corrections. As a result, the short-term outlook is more of a coin flip. However, the medium-term outlook remains profoundly bullish, and gold, silver, and mining stocks may resent the USD Index’s forthcoming uprising. Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or the ones of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind still remains at the dollar’s back. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98 target is likely to be reached over the medium term, and the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, while the USD Index’s 2021 surge caught the consensus by surprise, I’ve been sounding the bullish alarm for many months. And with more strength likely to materialize over the medium term, the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative has been grossly over-exaggerated. Moreover, while gold, silver, and mining stocks recently ignored the greenback’s fervor, history implies that their relative strength won’t last. As a result, more downside will likely confront the precious metals over the next few months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Summary:  This week it's all about a surge of Covid-19 cases and inflation. The debt ceiling issue will keep long-term yields in check in the United States while spurring volatility in money markets. Lack of collateral and new lockdown measures are also compressing spreads in the Euro area. Yet, policymakers' engagement to the idea of less accommodative monetary policies on both sides of the Atlantic indicates that yields will not remain rangebound for long. Once the lid is lifted, inflationary pressures will push yields higher. Therefore, it's safe to assume a continuous bear flattening of yield curves. US Treasuries: volatility in money markets will keep long-term yields in check. Yet, inflation concerns continue to grow, pointing to higher rates once the debt ceiling issue is resolved. This week, investors will need to focus on the Fed Minutes released on Wednesday, inflation numbers, and the White House's announcement concerning the Federal Reserve Chair nomination. The Fed’s minutes might unveil details regarding the decision that led to tapering this month and whether FOMC members begin to fret about inflationary pressures. Last week, several Fed’s speakers opened up about accelerating tapering and hiking interest rates in 2022. Among them, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida called for a discussion to expedite tapering to enable the central bank to hike interest rates sooner. At the same time, if Biden nominates Leal Brainard as Fed Chair, it could advance inflation worries. Brainard is known to be more dovish than Powell. In the case of her nomination, the market could anticipate interest rates to remain low for longer, implying stickier inflation, provoking a selloff in bonds. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, one of the inflation data most looked at after the Federal Reserve, will be released on Wednesday. The PCE core deflator index YoY is expected to rise to 4.1%, the highest in more than 31 years. As we mentioned in earlier editions of “Fixed income market: the week ahead”, we expect inflationary pressures to continue to rise and higher rents, housing and wages to make inflation stickier, putting at odds policymakers’ transitory narrative. Therefore, although the US yield curve has already flattened substantially, we cannot expect anything else than more flattening. The only difference is that once the debt ceiling issue is resolved, long term yields will need to rise together with short term yields, putting at risk weaker credits. The debt ceiling will be a crucial topic for December. Janet Yellen has said that the US Treasury will run out of cash soon after the 3rd of December if an agreement over the debt ceiling is not found. However, money markets have started to price a default during the second half of December. Indeed, last week's 4-week T-Bills auction was priced with a yield of 0.11%, more than double the Reverse Repurchase facility rate. We expect volatility in money markets to continue to remain elevated until the debt ceiling is lifted or suspended. Until then, the long part of the yield curve will serve as a safe haven causing yields to remain compressed. Yet, once the debt ceiling hurdle has cleared, long-term rates will resume their rise. European sovereigns: lack of collateral and a surge in Covid-19 cases will keep yields compressed. Yet, something is changing among policymakers. In Europe, governments are imposing new lockdown measures due to increasing Covid-19 cases, causing yields to drop significantly. Yet, inflationary forces have already been set into motion. Another lockdown might exacerbate inflation further as consumption will switch from services to goods, putting more pressure on prices. Meanwhile, policymakers have started to open to the possibility that upside inflation risk might remain throughout winter. Therefore, near-term hikes expectations are unlikely to reverse despite new lockdown measures. Yet, lack of collateral in the euro area contributes to keeping short-term yields compressed across the euro area, including the periphery. At the same time, swaps with the same maturity have widened as the market prices earlier interest rate hikes. Demand for collateral will remain strong until the end of the year. However, 2022 opens up to widening risk, as demand for bonds will start to wane, and the front part of the yield curve will shift higher according to interest rate hikes expectations. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group. However, it looks too early to call for higher yields in the Euro area, as a lot still depends on yields in the US and December's ECB meeting. Suppose more governments across the euro area impose lockdown measures. In that case, the central bank might look to extend the PEPP bond-buying program after March, compressing yields further. The next few weeks preceding Christmas are going to be critical to set direction in European sovereigns. Economic calendar: Monday, the 22nd of November  Spain:  Balance of Trade United States: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales (Oct),  2-year Note Auction, 5-year Note Auction Eurozone: Consumer Confidence Flash (Nov) Tuesday, the 23rd of November Germany: Markit Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash (Nov) Eurozone: Markit Composite and manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov) United Kingdom: market/CIPS Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash (Nov) United States: Markit Manufacturing PMI flash (Nov), NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 7.5 to 30 years, 2-year FRN Auction, 7-year Note Auction Wednesday, the 24th of November New Zealand: Interest Rate Decision, RBNZ Press Confidence France: Business Confidence Germany: Ifo Business Climate (Nov), 15-year Bund Auction United States: Durable Goods Orders (Oct), GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q3),  Continuing Jobless Claims, Corporate Profits QoQ Prel (Q3), Durable Goods Orders (Oct),  Goods Trade Balance (Oct), Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-week Average, retail Inventories Ex Autos (Oct), Core PCE Price Index (Oct), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov), PCE Price Index (Oct), Personal Income (Oct), Personal Spending (Oct), FOMC Minutes, 4-week and 8- week bill auction Thursday, the 25th of November New Zealand: Balance of Trade Japan: Foreign bond Investment, Coincident Index Final, Leading Economic Index Final (Sep) Germany: GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q3), GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec) Sweden: Monetary Policy Report, Riskbank Rate Decision France: Unemployment Benefit Claims Canada Average weekly earnings YoY Friday, the 26th of November Australia: Retail Sales MoM Prel (Oct) South Korea: Interest Rate Decision France: Consumer Confidence Switzerland: GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3) Italy: Business Confidence (Nov)

GBPUSD hits resistance The pound pulled back after Britain’s retail sales registered a steeper drop to -1.3% in October. The pair has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 1.3510, a support that has turned into resistance after a failed rebound. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound. However, a bearish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment is still pessimistic. 1.3380 is a key support to keep the sterling afloat. A bearish breakout may trigger an extended sell-off to last December’s lows around 1.3200. USDCAD breaks higher The Canadian dollar struggles after a contraction in September’s retail numbers. The US dollar bounced off the resistance-turned-support at 1.2580. This is a sign that the bulls are still in control. A bullish MA cross on the daily timeframe confirms the directional bias for the next few days. The daily resistance at 1.2770 would be the next target. Its break would lead to a test of the double top at 1.2900. In the meantime, the RSI’s overextension has temporarily held the bulls back. We can also expect buying interest during dips. GER 40 struggles for support The Dax 40 tumbles as lockdowns across Europe hurt sentiment. The RSI’s overbought situation on the daily chart has made buyers cautious in pursuing high valuations. On the hourly chart, a bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the upward momentum. Then a dip below 16200 confirms weakness in the rally, prompting leverage positions to liquidate. The psychological level of 16000 is a congestion area as it coincides with last August’s peak and the 20-day moving average. 16300 is now a fresh hurdle.

How do you feel about adding a broader range of stocks to our energy investment portfolio watchlist? Let’s see what we can do! By the way, feel free to send us your questions or topics that you would like us to write about in the forthcoming editions, so we’ll try our best to answer them! Trading positions are available to our premium subscribers. First, let’s quickly define what biofuels are: A biofuel is a liquid or gaseous fuel derived from the transformation of non-fossil organic matter from biomass, for example, plant materials produced by agriculture (beets, wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflowers, potatoes, etc.). So, it is considered a source of renewable energy. The combustion of biofuels produces only carbon dioxide (CO2) and steam (H2O) and little or no nitrogen and sulfur oxides. Therefore, biofuels – as being at the crossroads between energy and agricultural commodities – respond to economic drivers (crops/supply, demand, dollar strength, reserves, etc.) and geopolitics of both industrial sectors. Furthermore, they allow their producing countries to reduce their energy dependence on fossil fuels. Key reasons to invest in these alternative energy sources: Given the recent surge of oil and gas prices, biofuels have become somehow more attractive, and consequently one could witness a slight shift in demand from fossil to non-fossil fuels. This was also a central topic of talks during the recent United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP26), which recently took place in Glasgow (Scotland), and where world leaders finally agreed to preliminary rules for trading carbon emissions credits. In addition, as we all know, the combustion of fossil fuels contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regarding biofuels - the carbon emitted to the atmosphere during their combustion has been previously fixed by plants during photosynthesis. Thus, the carbon footprint seems to be a priori neutral. Stock Watchlist (Continued) In the first article, we started a watchlist with some major energy stocks. In the second article, we added some more spicy assets (MLPs). Today, let’s update it with some biofuel-based stocks! As usual, our stock picks will be shared through that link to our dynamic watchlist which will be updated from time to time, as we progress through this portfolio construction process... Below is an example of some indicative metrics: Daily Technical Charts Figure 1 – Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE) Stock (daily chart) Figure 2 – Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Stock (daily chart) Figure 3 – Tantech Holdings Ltd. (TANH) Stock (daily chart) In summary, those biofuel-related stocks may present some benefits to diversifying your energy portfolio while covering some alternative fuels as well. As always, we’ll keep you, our subscribers well informed. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve a high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Powell maintains that inflation is transitory, but the monetary theory of inflation suggests otherwise. So, elevated inflation could stay with us!, Some economists downplay the risk stemming from elevated inflation, saying that comparisons to the 1970s style stagflation appear unfounded. They say that labor unions are weaker and economies are less dependent on energy than in the past, which makes inflationary risks less likely to materialize. Isabel Schnabel, Board Member of the European Central Bank, even compared the current inflationary spike to a sneeze, i.e., “the economy’s reaction to dust being kicked up in the wake of the pandemic and the ensuing recovery”. Are those analysts right? Well, in a sense, they are. The economy is not in stagnation with little or no growth and a rising unemployment rate. On the contrary, the US labor market is continuously improving. It’s also true that both the bargaining power of workers and energy’s share in overall expenditure have diminished over the last fifty years. However, general inflation is neither caused by wages nor energy prices. Higher wages simply mean lower profits, so although employees can consume more, employers can spend less. If wages are set above the potential market rates, then unemployment emerges - not inflation. Similarly, higher energy prices affect the composition of spending, but not the overall monetary demand spent on goods and services. It works as follows: when the price of oil increases, people have to spend more money on oil (assuming the amount of consumed oil remains unchanged), which leaves less money available for other goods and services. So, the overall money spent on goods won’t change. As a consequence, the structure of relative prices will change, but widespread prices increases won’t happen. In other words, Milton Friedman’s dictum remains valid: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output”. It’s quite a simple mechanism, even central bankers should be able to understand it: if the stock of goods remains unaltered while the stock of money increases, this, as Frank Shostak put it, “must lead to more money being spent on the unchanged stock of goods – an increase in the average price of goods” Let’s look at the chart below, which displays the annual growth rates in the broad money supply (M2, red line) and in the CPI (green line). We can notice two important things. First, in the 1970s, the pace of broad money supply growth was relatively high, as it reached double-digit values at some point. As a consequence, inflation accelerated, jumping above 10% for a while. In other words, stagflation was born. Since then, the rate of growth in the money supply never reached double-digit numbers on a prolonged basis, including the Great Recession, so high inflation never materialized. And then the pandemic came. In March 2020, the money supply growth rate crossed the 10% threshold and never came back. In February 2021, it reached its record height of 27.1%. The pace of growth in the M2 money aggregate has slowed down since then, dropping to a still relatively high rate of 13%. This is a rate that is almost double the pre-pandemic level (6.8% in February 2020) and the long-term average (7.1% for the 1960-2021 period ). So, actually, given the surge in the broad money supply and the monetary theory of inflation, rapidly rising prices shouldn’t be surprising at all. Second, there is a lag between the money supply growth and the increase in inflation rates. That’s why some analysts don’t believe in the quantity theory of money – there is no clear positive correlation between the two variables. This is indeed true – but only when you take both variables from the same periods. The correlation coefficient becomes significant and positive when you take inflation rates with a lag of 18-24 months behind the money supply. As John Greenwood and Steve Hanke explain in opinion for Wall Street Journal, According to monetarism, asset-price inflation should have occurred with a lag of one to nine months. Then, with a lag of six to 18 months, economic activity should have started to pick up. Lastly, after a lag of 12 to 24 months, generalized inflation should have set in. If this relationship is true, then inflation won’t go away anytime soon. After all, the money supply accelerated in March 2020 and peaked in February 2021, growing at more than four times the “optimal” rate that would keep inflation at the 2-percent target, according to Greenwood and Hanke. In line with the monetarist description, the CPI rates accelerated in March 2021, exactly one year after the surge in the money supply. So, if this lag is stable, the peak in inflation rates should happen in Q1 2022, and inflation should remain elevated until mid-2022 at least. What does it mean for the gold market? Well, if the theory of inflation outlined above is correct, elevated inflation will stay with us for several more months. Therefore, it’s not transitory, as the central bank tells us. Instead, inflation should remain high for a while, i.e., as long as the money supply growth won’t slow down and go back below 10% on a sustained basis. What’s more, the velocity of money, which plunged when the epidemic started, is likely to rise in the coming months, additionally boosting inflation. So, I would say that Milton Friedman would probably forecast more persistent inflation than Jerome Powell, allocating some of his funds into the yellow metal. Gold is, after all, considered to be an inflation hedge, and it should appreciate during the period of high and rising inflation. Although so far gold hasn’t benefited from higher inflation, this may change at some point. Actually, investors’ worries about inflation intensified in October, and gold started to show some reaction to the inflationary pressure. My bet is that the next year will be better for gold than 2021: the Fed’s tightening cycle will already be inaugurated, and thus traders will be able to focus on inflation, possibly shifting the allocation of some of their funds into gold as a safe-haven asset. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

S&P 500 stumbled as value plunged – corona fears are back as Austria lockdown might very well be followed soon by Germany. The mood on the continent is souring, and coupled with accelerating German inflation data, helping to underpin the dollar. Overall, the reaction reminds me of the corona market playbook of Feb-Mar 2020 when I aggresively took short positions, riding them all the way down to the Mar 23 bottom. So, why am I not beating the bearish drum today as well? We have a lot of incoming stimulus (both monetary and fiscal), the economy is slow but the yield curve hasn‘t inverted the way it did in 2019 – make no mistake, we‘re in a rate raising cycle (even if the Fed didn‘t move, the markets would force it down the road). I know, pretty ridiculous notion with 10-year yield at 1.54% and Oct YoY CPI at 6.2% - but the rates being even more negative elsewhere, help to explain the dollar 2021 resilience. That‘s the bullish side to last week‘s bearish argument. What gold and silver are sniffing out, is that the Fed would have to reverse course once the tapering effects start biting some more – not now, with still more than $100bn monthly addition. Cyclicals and commodities that had massively appreciated vs. year ago (oil doubled), are feeling the pinch of fresh economic activity curbs speculation in spite of the polar shift of U.S. strength in energy of 2019 and before. Begging the OPEC+ to increase production might not do the trick, and with so much inflation already in (and still to come), the key investment theme is of real assets strength. Precious metals have broken out, are no longer an underdog, and the inflation data will not decelerate for quite a few months still. And even as they would, it would come at a palpable cost to the real economy, and the resolute fresh stimulus action wouldn‘t be then far off. As I wrote in Apr 2020, it‘s about the continuous stimulus that‘s the go-to response anytime the horizon darkens, for whatever reason. Wash, rinse, repeat. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls still have the upper hand, and value recovery accompanied by good tech defence of high ground gained, is the awaited mix. The market breadth is narrowing, and needs to be reversed to give the bulls more breathing room. Credit Markets Once corona returns to the spotlight, bets on „reversion to the mean“ in credit markets are off. Weakening data get more focus, and flight to safety is on, puncturing the trend of rising yields that would inevitably lead to yield curve control. Gold, Silver and Miners It‘s as if the gold and silver bulls don‘t trust the latest rally – I think that‘s a mistaken belief for we have turned the corner, and precious metals are about to shine – of course, invalidating the latest miners weakness in the process. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls didn‘t recover from Friday‘s spanner in the works, and while the dust hasn‘t settled, black gold is prone to an upside reversal at little notice. I‘m not overrating the oil index weakness. Copper Copper smartly recovered, moving at odds with the CRB Index, which I treat (especially given Friday‘s Austria news repercussions) as a vote of confidence that the economy isn‘t rolling over to a deflationarry hell (pun intended). Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still going sideways in this correction, but today‘s lower knot is encouraging. The consolidation though still appears to have a bit further to go in time. Summary S&P 500 bulls keep hanging in there, and the waiting for bonds to come to their senses might take a while longer. Tech keeps cushioning the downside, and we haven‘t peaked in spite of the many warnings. Value and Russell 2000 upswings would be good confirmations of the stock bull market getting fresh fuel. Precious metals would have the easiest run in the weeks ahead – commodities in general not so much. Their breather is though of a temporary nature as all roads lead to real assets. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

NAS 100 pulls back Investors took profit after Jerome Powell’s renomination as US Federal Reserve Chairman. The tech index saw an acceleration in its rally after a break above the previous peak (16450). Strong momentum suggests that buyers are committed to keeping the uptrend intact after a brief pause. However, the RSI’s triple top in the overbought area indicates exhaustion, and a fall below 16550 has triggered a correction. 16300 is the next support from a previous supply zone. A rebound needs to clear 16750 before the rally could resume. AUDUSD struggles for support China’s property slowdown and lower commodity prices weigh on the Australian dollar. The pair has given up most of its gains from the October rally, a sign that support is hard to come by. Nonetheless, a series of lower lows has attracted trend followers’ interest in maintaining the status quo. 0.7220 is an intermediate support. An oversold RSI may prompt the short side to cover, raising bids in the process. However, the bulls will need to lift offers around the former support at 0.7300 before they could expect to turn the tables. NZDJPY seeks support The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure after disappointing retail sales in Q3. The kiwi is seeking support after a surge above last May’s peak at 81.20 led the daily RSI into an overbought situation. Short-term sentiment remains bearish as the pair struggles to achieve a new high. 80.55 is a major resistance after the bulls’ multiple failed attempts. A bullish breakout may pave the way for a reversal towards 82.00. Otherwise, a drop below 79.50 would send the pair towards September’s high at 78.50.

With this psychological burden, you want to stack your odds as good as possible to gain an edge for balance. Bitcoin provides such advantages. The inherent volatility allows for follow-through after an entry. In other words, one gets good risk/reward-ratios in midterm plays on bitcoin. Also, necessary for the long-term time frame player since hodling has another psychological hurdle that piled on top can be devastating. You won’t find many traders who bought a bundle of bitcoin when it traded at a dollar and are still holding it without ever having sold or rebought some. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, the Doji explosion: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Quarterly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. The quarterly chart of bitcoin shows how explosive moves to the upside can be. If you look at the yellow lines, you will see that a small Doji builds after a retracement, and then prices explode within the next quarter like rockets. This trading behavior provides for sensational risk/reward-ratios. The quarterly chart shows a bullish quarter. Even though all-time highs have been rejected, we see the year ending on a bullish note. The great thing about this self-directed profession, on the other hand, is that you get all the credit. Work directly translates into money, without the typical step in between, selling a product or a service. If you are good at what you are doing in the trading/investing arena, rewards can be more than plentiful. No gift baskets need to be sent to a boss or coworker. True rewards for arduous work to yourself. A very self-fulfilling profession indeed. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, most often trending: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. The monthly chart illustrates the steepness of the trend, and yellow lines provide a possible long reload opportunity, which will take all-time highs out next year. Another benefit for individual traders choosing to trade bitcoin is its unique personality of trending much more than most trading instruments. This unique feature adds a massive edge to a trader’s trading arsenal. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, freeing investment capital fast: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. But this isn’t all. From a trading perspective, bitcoin supports the unsupported individual in comparison to gold or silver as alternate wealth preservation tools due to its speed. Risk is the most defining aspect for a trader, and consequently, capital exposure time is the most crucial aspect. After all, the longer money is in the market, the more exposed it is, let’s say, to unexpected news and six sigma events. Market money parked cannot produce elsewhere and is also emotionally draining. No such thing in bitcoin.A look at the weekly time frame illustrates what we mean by this. It took less than eight weeks for bitcoin to gain staggering percentage moves within the first and second leg in this steep regression channel up. We also just entered a low-risk entry zone again for a third leg to mature. In short, you are all alone with bitcoin, but at least you picked the most ideal alliance with this trading vehicle to stack the odds in your favor. All alone with bitcoin: The business of market play is unique. You’re not learning this skill in school, mentors are hard to come by, and it isn’t a group sport. It is advisable to seek out a community of like-minded traders like our free telegram channel, since spouses rarely can comprehend the steepness of the learning curve and the challenges of constant self-reflection and pain until the consistency is mastered.  While one typically can team up and is supported within a group at the mastery level required, it’s a solo sport in trading.  Statistics support that the likeliest reason for failure in this business is underestimating the time required to acquire all the important skills necessary for success. New traders run either out of money or patience.  The press makes it look so easy, and the fact that all one needs to do is press a button doesn’t help towards a more respectful attitude. Yet, the mere truth is that it is one of the most demanding businesses to find oneself into. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 23rd, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Summary:  Interest rate sensitivity came back roaring yesterday pushing down all of our growth baskets. Yesterday's move shows the potential for a correction in US technology stocks should the US 10-year yield continue to rapidly advance towards the highs from March. We also show how the Nasdaq 100 and STOXX 600 move in opposite direction during large up or down days in the US 10-year yield. Growth baskets look awfully vulnerable Yesterday’s move in the US 10-year yield of 8 basis points made it the 10th biggest move higher in US yields this year. Back in March when technology stocks were under pressure we wrote a lot about interest rate sensitivity in growth stocks as their present value are derived from expected cash flows further into the future than the typical MSCI World company. If interest rates rise faster than future growth expectations then the net effect is negative on the present value and more so for growth stocks as they have a higher duration. We saw downside beta (higher sensitivity) in all of our growth equity baskets with the gaming basket down 2.3% and the worst performers being the E-commerce and Crypto & Blockchain baskets down 4.2% and 5.1% respectively. This tells you a lot about the sensitivity and given the drawdown in technology stocks back in March, we could easily experience a 15-20% drawdown in technology stocks. The local highs from March in the US 10-year yield is the key level to watch for a breakout and a new trading environment. With all the options activity in Tesla dwarfing the combined options activity in FTSE 100 constituents, we believe Tesla will be at the center of the next risk-off move in technology. Nasdaq 100 vs STOXX 600 are yin and yang of interest rates We have previously tried to calculate the interest rate sensitivity, but this time we are pursuing a different approach. We look at the past 231 trading days this year and group the 1-day difference in the US 10-year yield into deciles. In order to measure interest rate sensitivity we calculate daily excess log returns for Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and STOXX 600 against the MSCI World Index and compute their average daily excess return for each decile. As the barplot shows, there is significant negative excess return in Nasdaq 100 in the 1st decile (the 10% days with the highest positive difference in US 10-year yield) and significant positive excess return in STOXX 600. This makes perfect sense because Nasdaq 100 is high duration growth stocks and STOXX 600 has a clear value tilt towards financials, energy and mining which exhibit much lower duration. The pattern is completely reversed in the 10th decline (days with large negative difference in US 10-year yield). The other eight deciles do not show the same clear spread between Nasdaq 100 and STOXX 600. In other words, if interest rates suddenly move aggressively higher then growth portfolio will take a serious hit and hence why we recommend investors to improve the balance between growth and value stocks, or said differently reduce the equity duration.

The S&P 500 index nearly topped its record high on Friday, but it closed lower following an intraday decline. Is this a topping pattern? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch . The S&P 500 index lost 0.14% on Friday, Nov. 19, as it extended its short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. The broad stock market went sideways despite record-breaking rallies in large tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT and NVDA. It still looks like a short-term topping pattern, as the S&P 500 index keeps bouncing from the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 continues to trade along the 4,700 level, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Reached the New Record High Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index reached the new record high of 16,625.86 on Friday, led by megacap tech stock rallies. It accelerated above its short-term upward trend line after breaking above the resistance level of 16,400 on Thursday. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some short-term overbought conditions. Apple and Microsoft at New Record Highs Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple accelerated its uptrend after breaking above the resistance level of around $152-154. It reached the new record high on Friday at $161.02. Microsoft slightly extended its recent advance, as it reached the new record high of $345.10. The two biggest megacap tech stocks reached new record highs, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% higher this morning. We will likely see some more short-term fluctuations along the record high level. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation and a flat correction within an uptrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is fluctuating along the 4,700 level. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation following the October-November rally. Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak, Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Democrats are not slowing down - the social spending bill follows the infrastructure package. Will gold benefit, or will it get into deep water? Will the American spending spree ever end? On Monday last week (November 15, 2021), President Biden signed a $1 trillion infrastructure package, and just a few days later, Biden’s social spending bill worth another $1.75 trillion passed the US House of Representatives. Apparently, $1 trillion was not enough! Apparently, we don’t already have too much money chasing too few goods. No, the economy needs even more money! Yes, I can almost hear the lament of American families: “we need more money, we already bought everything possible, we already own three cars and a lot of other useless crap, but we need more! Please, the almighty government, give us some bucks, let your funds revive our land”. Luckily, the gracious Uncle Sam listened to the prayers of its poor citizens. Given the above, one could think that the US economy is not already heavily indebted. Well, it’s the exact opposite. As the chart below shows, the American public debt is more than $27 trillion and 125% of GDP, but who cares except for a few boring economists? Of course, neither infrastructure nor spending bill will increase the fiscal deficits and overall indebtedness to a similar extent as the pandemic spending packages. These funds will be spread over years. Additionally, the fiscal deficit should narrow in FY 2022 as pandemic relief spending phases out (this is already happening, as the chart below shows), while the economic recovery combined with inflation tax bracket creep increases tax revenues. However, both of Biden’s bills will increase indebtedness, lowering the financial resilience of the US economy. What’s more, the overall debt is much larger than the public debt I focused on here. Other categories of debt are also rising. For instance, total household debt has jumped 6.2% in the third quarter of 2021 year-over-year, to a new record of $15.2 trillion.   Implications for Gold What does the fiscal offensive imply for the precious metal market? In the short run, not much. Fiscal hawks like me will complain, but gold is a tough metal that does not cry. Both of Biden’s pieces of legislation have been widely accepted, so their impact has already been incorporated into prices. Actually, the actual bills could be even seen as conservative – compared to Biden’s initial radical proposals. In the long run, fiscal exuberance should be supportive of gold prices. The ever-rising public debt should zombify the economy and erode the confidence in the US dollar, which could benefit the yellow metal. However, the empire collapses slowly, and there is still a long way before people cease to choose the greenback as their most beloved currency (there is simply no alternative!). So, it seems that, in the foreseeable future, gold’s path will still be dependent mainly on inflation worries and expectations of the Fed’s action. Most recently, gold prices have stabilized somewhat after the recent rally, as the chart below shows. Normal profit-taking took place, but gold found itself under pressure also because of the hawkish speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller. He described inflation as a heavy snowfall that would stay on the ground for a while, rather than a one-inch dusting: Consider a snowfall, which we know will eventually melt. Snow is a transitory shock. If the snowfall is one inch and is expected to melt away the next day, it may be optimal to do nothing and wait for it to melt. But if the snowfall is 6 to 12 inches and expected to be on the ground for a week, you may want to act sooner and shovel the sidewalks and plow the streets. To me, the inflation data are starting to look a lot more like a big snowfall that will stay on the ground for a while, and that development is affecting my expectations of the level of monetary accommodation that is needed going forward. So, brace yourselves, a janitor is coming with a big shovel to clean the snow! Just imagine Powell with a long-eared cap, gloves, and galoshes giving a press conference! At least the central bankers would finally do something productive! Or… maybe shoveling is not coming! Although the Fed may turn a bit more hawkish if inflation stays with us for longer than expected previously, it should remain behind the curve, while the real interest rates should stay ultra-low. The December FOMC meeting will provide us with more clues, so stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

EuroStoxx 50 December just completed a head & shoulders reversal pattern for a sell signal initially targeting minor support at 4310/00. FTSE 100 December a high for the day exactly at first resistance at 7240/60. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax holding minor resistance at 16140/160 to retest strong support at 16090/060. Try longs with stops below 16040. A break lower however is a sell signal with 16060/090 working as resistance targeting 16000 & a buying opportunity at 15960/930. Try longs with stops below 15900. A break above 16180 keeps bulls in control for today targeting 16260/280. A break above 16290 should target 16350/390. EuroStoxx holding the head & shoulders neckline resistance at 4330/40 targets 4310/00 then 4270/60, perhaps as far as strong support at 4240/30. Resistance at 4330/40 but above here allows a recovery to 4375/80 before a retest of 4400/10. Anyone want to bet on a double top sell signal here? A break above 4410 however targets 4418/20 but eventually we can reach as far as 4450/55. FTSE we have a buying opportunity at 7170/50 with stops below 7135. A break lower targets 7100/7090, perhaps as far as 7040/30. Longs at 7170/50 target 7200 then first resistance at 7240/60 for some profit taking. If we continue higher look for 7300/10 this week. Emini S&P December new all time high exactly at the 4735/40 target in the bull trend, but severely overbought conditions finally kicked in with a sudden collapse to the 4670/68 target. This leaves a bearish engulfing candle, which is a very short term negative signal. We do have severely negative divergence on the daily chart so there is a risk of a further correction but I think there are too many retail traders betting on a crash for it to happen just yet. Nasdaq December hit the next target of 16640/660 next target then a new all time high at 16767. However prices then crashed leaving a huge bearish engulfing candle, which is a very short term negative signal. Emini Dow Jones December shorts at first resistance at 35850/950 worked perfectly with a high for the day here, followed by a retest of last week's low at 35490. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P first support at 4670/68 but a break below 4660 targets 4640 then the best support at 4630/20. Try longs with stops below 4610. Very minor resistance at 4700/10 but above here retargets 4720/23 & 4735/40 then 4750. Nasdaq December collapsed through first support at 16450/400 to target 16300/270 then best support for today at 16230/200. Try longs with stops below 16150. A break lower however sees 16200/230 working as resistance to target 16100 & 16030/010 before a buying opportunity at 15900/850. Try longs with stops below 15800. First resistance at 16400/450. Shorts need stops above 16500. A break higher targets 16550/600 before a retest of the all time high at 16630/767. Emini Dow Jones December strong support at 35450/350. A break lower however targets 35100/35000. Watch for a bounce from here on the first test. However a break lower meets a buying opportunity at 34800/750, with stops below 34650. First resistance at 35850/950. A break above 36000 should be a buy signal targeting 36230/250. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Summary:  US President Biden will tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair and will nominate Lael Brainard to be promoted to Vice Chair of the Fed, a move that sent the USD modestly higher and US yields sharply higher, though some of the reaction may have been on pent-up reaction to prior developments. Elsewhere, the descent in the Turkish lira is turning dire, while the kiwi is weaker ahead of an RBNZ meeting tonight. FX Trading focus: USD follows US yields higher in the wake of Powell getting nod for 2nd term Surprising a sizable minority and perhaps myself to a degree, US President Biden will tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair, while seeking to promote Lael Brainard from her current position to Vice Chair. The most prominent reason given for not going with Brainard is that her confirmation process may have proven contentious, something Biden wanted to avoid, and given extensive Democratic party support for Powell, the progressive wing aside, it was always the “easy option”. Brainard will still have to go through a confirmation process with the Senate. More interesting is the Brainard was not nominated to Vice Chair in the banking supervision and regulation role that the soon-gone Quarles occupied, a role that many envisioned for her. Biden has more nominees to consider for Quarles’ replacement and other empty spots, but continuity appears assured, though a Vice Chair Brainard will carry more weight when she dissents on non-monetary policy issues in the future (she never dissented on FOMC votes but has dissented more than 20 times on board votes linked to loosening regulation on US financial institutions). Other positions at the Fed will need filling as well, including the replacement of Quarles as banking supervisor. The market reaction to the news was fairly straightforward and “as expected” algorithmically, i.e., Brainard was supposed to be the more dovish pick, so Biden going with Powell saw the USD stronger as the market priced in about 10 basis points more in the way of Fed hikes through the end of next year. It’s tough to tell whether some of the reaction was the market simply adjusting to have this important issue “out of the way” allowing traders to price in other recent developments, like hot US data and Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s comments on possibly speeding up the pace of the Fed’s taper of asset purchases at the December FOMC meeting. The next test for whether this USD move can extend will be with tomorrow’s October PCE Inflation print and the FOMC minutes. For USDJPY, as I argue below, an extension higher  likely needs more upside from longer US yields. US President Biden will speak today on the economy and “lowering prices for the American people” which many believe will include a release of crude oil from US strategic reserves. That’s a risky move if it fails. Chart: USDJPYUSDJPY spilled over the 115.00 barrier in the wake of Powell getting the nod for a second term, with  the move now trying to decide whether it can stick. Arguably, the rise in Fed policy expectations don’t mean much if the longer end of the US yield curve remains anchored as it has lately, which continues to suggest that the market sees inflation as transitory and/or that Fed potential on rates will max out around 2.0% and crush the growth and inflation outlook. While 10-year US yields were sharply higher yesterday, they’re still bogged down in the range since the pivot high of 1.70% in October and the cycle high near 1.75% all the way back at the end of March. The logjam needs to break there and send US long yields higher for better fundamental support for a significant break above the 115.00 level in USDJPY. European politics in the spotlight – with Germany dealing with a new Covid ave and the ongoing natural gas and power crunch, it is time for the government coalition to announce itself and begin ruling. An announcement of the “stoplight” coalition could be imminent and we’ll have to watch the awkward combination closely, particularly the LDP Lindner’s attitude toward spending as the traditionally liberal party’s supply side principles are at odds with its Social Democratic and Green coalition partners inclinations, although energy emergencies are not political, but must be dealt with.  Elsewhere, Italian president Mattarella announced he will be stepping down. If, as some believe, an effort is made to replace his mostly ceremonial role with Mario Draghi, elections would have to be held. And the French election season will only heat up from here, where we watch whether Macron can keep the populists Zemmour and Le Pen at bay.  The Euro is getting very cheap – bigger fiscal, an ECB reverse repo facility, and a non-Covid constrained outlook by spring could have EURUSD in a very different place by then. Antipodean action- the Aussie has risen sharply versus the kiwi (NZD) over the last couple of sessions as the news flow for the  Aussie has improved notably, with China’s central bank possibly signaling it is ready to bring stimulus, some of the news flow in the property sector improving, and especially as iron ore prices have jumped sharply, particularly overnight, on all of the above plus anticipation that China will have to increase steel output soon. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was one of the quickest central banks to turn hawkish over the summer and abandon QE and was only delayed slightly in hiking rates by New Zealand’s first Covid outbreak in many months over the summer. The central bank chief Adrian Orr has made it clear that the bank is on the path or many more rate hikes to come and the market has priced in a policy rate of 1.50% by the April meeting of next year versus the current 0.50%. Most believe that the central bank will only hike 25 bps tonight but a significant minority believe that the bank will hike 50 bps. As important will be the market mood (if risk sentiment is weak on further US yield rises, for example, the impact of any RBNZ move may be muted) and whether guidance is able to meet lofty expectations for further tightening. The NZ 2-year yield has traded flat at elevated levels since late October, while NZDUSD has declined, arguably on the fresh momentum in Fed expectations, so moving the needle may require that the RBNZ deliver a 50 basis point hike and even more hawkish guidance. Turkish lira move getting downright disorderly – Turkish President was out yesterday complimenting the recent Turkish Central Bank chief’s decision to cut rates another 100 basis points and declaring that the Turkish government would concentrate on policies that encourage economic growth. In rather dire language, he drew parallels between the current situation and the struggle to form the modern Turkish state in 1923 in the wake of World War I. As of this writing, USDTRY traded near 12.50 after starting last week near 10.00, a breathtaking move. Much more of this kind of price action, and the risk of hyperinflation will swing into view. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthThe most important trend shift was yesterday’s huge dump in precious metals – look at the momentum scores for the last 2- and 5 days. Otherwise, most trends of late are extending with the exception of the badly fading NZD. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairsThe precious metals in for a rough ride on the USD- and US yield move in the wake of the Fed Chair nomination move yesterday. Elsewhere, getting some hefty trend readings in USD/SEK and UDS/NOK, which remain high beta to Euro weakness. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1445 – US Nov. Flash Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI 1500 – UK BoE Governor Bailey at House of Lords 1500 – US Nov. Richmond Fed Manufacturing 1730 – ECB's Makhlouf to speak 1800 – Canada Bank of Canada’s Beaudry to speak 2130 – API’s Weekly Petroleum Stock Report 0030 – Japan Nov. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 0100 – New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate Announcement

EURUSD struggles to rebound The euro bounced back after PMI readings in the eurozone exceeded expectations. The pair is testing July 2020’s lows around 1.1200. The RSI’s oversold situation on the daily chart may limit the downward pressure for now. We can expect a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd as price action stabilizes. Sentiment remains fragile though and sellers may fade the next rebound. The bulls will need to lift 1.1360 before a reversal could take shape. Failing that, a bearish breakout would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 1.1100. NZDUSD lacks support The New Zealand dollar softened after the RBNZ met market expectations and raised its cash rate by 25bps. The downward pressure has increased after 0.6980 failed to contain the sell-off. The pair has given up all gains from the October rally, suggesting a lack of interest in bidding up the kiwi. An oversold RSI caused a rebound as short-term traders took profit and the bears were swift in selling into strength. The directional bias remains bearish unless 0.7010 is cleared. The September low at 0.6860 is the next support. UKOIL bounces back Brent crude recovers on speculation that OPEC+ may lower production to counter a release of strategic reserves. A break below 79.30 has shaken out the weak hands. The price has met buying interest over the daily demand zone around 77.70, which coincides with last July’s peak. A surge above 82.00 puts the bears on the defensive. Short-covering would exacerbate short-term volatility. An overbought RSI may cause a brief pullback. Then 85.50 is a key hurdle before the uptrend could resume.

Dax 40 December longs at 16080/060 stopped below 16040 for a sell signal targeting 1a buying opportunity at 15960/930. However unfortunately we unexpectedly ran as far as 15860 before the bounce. EuroStoxx 50 December we wrote: just completed a head & shoulders reversal pattern for a sell signal initially targeting 4310/00 then 4270/60 (a low for the day here), perhaps as far as strong support at 4240/30. FTSE 100 December shorts at first resistance at 7240/60 worked a few times for 50 tick scalping opportunities before we eventually broke higher, so now this is today's support. Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax my buying opportunity at 15960/930 was clearly too high - apologies - I will revise to 15870/840. Try longs with stops below 15800. Very strong support at 15750/700. Longs need stops below 15650. A break lower meets the best support for this week at 15575/525. Strong resistance at 16050/100. Shorts need stops above 16150. A break higher keeps bulls in control for today targeting 16260/280. A break above 16290 should target 16350/390. EuroStoxx shorts work on the slide to 4270/60. Holding first resistance at 4300/10 risks a retest of 4270/60 with a fall as far as strong support at 4240/30 possible before the end of the week. Resistance at 4300/10. Second resistance at 4330/40 but above here allows a recovery to 4375/80 before a retest of 4400/10. Anyone want to bet on a double top sell signal here? A break above 4410 however targets 4418/20 but eventually we can reach as far as 4450/55. FTSE holding what is now first support at 7260/40 targets 7300/10, perhaps as far as 7335/40 before a retest of 7380/90. Minor support at 7260/40 then we have a buying opportunity at 7170/50 with stops below 7135. A break lower targets 7100/7090, perhaps as far as 7040/30. Emini S&P December longs at first support at 4670/68 unexpectedly stopped below 4660 before a bounce from 4650. Bulls remain in control with no sell signal. (Although the bearish engulfing candle is likely to signal sideways trend so ease severely overbought conditions). Nasdaq December lower after a huge bearish engulfing candle, which is a very short term negative signal. Shorts at first resistance at 16400/450 worked perfectly, with a high for the day here. However we were buying at 16230/200, with stops below 16150...a low for the day at 16119 so unfortunately my stop was too tight with a recovery now as far as 16350. Emini Dow Jones December shorts at first resistance at 35850/950 worked perfectly with a high for the day here, followed by buying in to longs at strong support at 35450/350 & a low for the day here. Perfect calls!! Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P I am going to stick with first support at 4670/68 but a break below 4660 targets 4640 then the better support at 4630/20. Try longs with stops below 4615. The best support at 4600/4395 this week - stop below 4385. Very minor resistance at 4700/10 but above here retargets 4720/23 & 4735/40 then 4750. Nasdaq December best support for today at 16230/180. Try longs with stops below 16100! Hopefully that gives us enough room. A break lower however sees 16180/230 working as resistance to target 16030/010 before a buying opportunity at 15900/850. Try longs with stops below 15750. First resistance again at 16400/450. Shorts need stops above 16500. A break higher targets 16550/600 before a retest of the all time high at 16630/767. Emini Dow Jones December longs at at 35450/350 worked perfectly on the bounce to 35790, just below first resistance at 35850/950. A break above 36000 should be a buy signal targeting 36230/250. Strong support again at 35450/350. A break lower however targets 35100/35000. Watch for a bounce from here on the first test. However a break lower meets a buying opportunity at 34800/750, with stops below 34650. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

November 23, 2021 By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 16th 2021. This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top 5 Most Bullish and Top 5 Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market. To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table) Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes: Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels. These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.   Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions: Brent Oil The Brent Oil speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Brent speculator level is currently at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position totaled -12,900 net contracts this week which was a change by -1,049 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 45,201 contracts compared to the total spec short position of 58,101 contracts. Free Reports: Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Watch List this Quarter - Here are the Stock Symbols that stood out so far in the fourth quarter of 2021. Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.   Coffee Futures The Coffee Futures speculator trader’s futures position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is now at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was 66,081 net contracts this week, a change by 5,261 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 79,550 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 13,469 contracts. New Zealand Dollar The New Zealand Dollar speculator trader’s futures position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The NZD speculator level resides at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was 13,965 net contracts this week which marked a change by 1,083 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 26,388 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 12,423 contracts. 2-Year Bond The 2-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -5,445 net contracts this week and changed by 11,292 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 345,245 contracts against the total spec short position of 350,690 contracts. US Treasury Bond The US Treasury Bond speculator trader’s futures position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 88 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -16,368 net contracts this week which was a move of 11,704 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 144,973 contracts in comparison to the total speculator short position of 161,341 contracts. This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions: Mexican Peso The Mexican Peso speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The MXN speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -47,655 net contracts this week, a weekly change of 752 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 69,984 contracts versus the total spec short position of 117,639 contracts. Palladium The Palladium speculator trader’s futures position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -2,038 net contracts this week which was a change by 916 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 3,108 contracts compared to the total speculator short position of 5,146 contracts. Japanese Yen The Japanese Yen speculator trader’s futures position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The JPY speculator level resides at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -93,126 net contracts this week saw movement by 12,225 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 24,635 contracts against the total spec short position of 117,761 contracts. Nikkei 225 Yen The Nikkei 225 Yen (Japanese stock market) speculator trader’s futures position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator level is at a 11 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -4,195 net contracts this week which was a change by -3,892 contracts on the week. The speculator long position was a total of 9,075 contracts versus the total speculator short position of 13,270 contracts. 5-Year Bond Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 20 percent score of its 3-year range. The speculator position was -344,595 net contracts this week and changed by 62,890 contracts from last week. The speculator long position was a total of 300,750 contracts compared to the total spec short position of 645,345 contracts. Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Summary:  The US dollar remains firm after the news of Fed Chair Powell getting the nod for a second term on Monday, but a more aggressive extension of its recent strength is avoided as US yield rises were tempered yesterday. Elsewhere, a less hawkish than expected RBNZ saw the kiwi sharply weaker as the market removed a chunky bit of forward rate hike expectation on the latest guidance. FX Trading focus: USD follows US yields higher in the wake of Powell getting nod for 2nd term The US dollar strengthening in the wake of President Biden’s announcement that he would tap Jay Powell for a second term as Fed Chair extended modestly yesterday and into this morning, somewhat tempered by a strong US 7-year treasury auction taking the steam out rises in yields yesterday – with the 7-year benchmark actually notching new highs for the cycle before retreating in the wake of the auction. The more widely tracked 10-year US treasury yield benchmark is still rangebound below the October pivot high of 1.7% and the post-pandemic outbreak high of 1.75%  from the end of March. This has kept USDJPY from extending notably above the sticky 115.00 area of the moment. Elsewhere, the euro remains relatively weak despite ECB Vice President de Guindos out speaking and hinting some concern on inflation rises: “the ECB is continuously pointingout that the inflation rebound is of a transitory nature....However, we have also seen how in recent months these supply factors are becoming more structural, more permanent.” But just this morning we also have the ECB’s Holzmann out saying that inflation is likely to slow from next year. Later today we will get the expected German government coalition deal (SPD’s Scholz as Chancellor with Green’s Baerbock reportedly set for the foreign minister post and importantly, the liberal LDP’s Lindner set to lead the finance ministry), with a press conference set for 3 p.m. EURJPY and EURUSD are heavy this morning and note that  the 128.00 level in EURJPY is a well-defined range low, while EURUSD doesn’t have notable  support until well below 1.1200 and arguably not until psychological levels like 1.10. With covid spiking and a galloping energy crisis, I don’t envy the new German leadership. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand waxed a bit more cautious than was expected by the market, and not only by raising the rates 25 basis points rather than the 50 basis points that a minority were expecting to see. In the central bank’s new statement, the bank strikes a more cautious tone: yes, clearly further rate hikes are set for coming meetings, but the bank is clearly in a wait and see mode, given the tightening of financial conditions already in the bag and that which the market has already priced in: “the Committee expressed uncertainty about the resilience of consumer spending and business investment....(and) also noted that increases in interest rates to householdsandbusinesses had already tightened monetary conditions. High levels of household debt, and a large share of fixed-rate mortgages re-pricing in coming months, could increase the sensitivity of consumer spending to these interest rate increases.” Later today, we have a stack of US data releases crammed into today because of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow (and for most, Friday as well). The most important of these is the October PCE Infation data print. Not expecting much from the FOMC minutes later as all eyes are on whether we are set for an acceleration of the QE taper at the December FOMC meeting, with some arguing that Powell and company have more room to move and administer a bit more hawkish message, if they so desire, as the nomination news is out of the way and this reduces hyper-sensitivity to bringing any message that could risk cratering market sentiment. Chart: AUDNZDThe 2-year yield spread between Australia and New Zealand has risen sharply in recent days and especially overnight, where the more cautious than expected tones from the RBNZ inspired a 14 basis point drop in 2-year NZ yields. The price action in AUDNZD was sympathetic with the rally back toward local resistance near 1.0450, though the rally needs to find legs for a move up to 1.0600 at least to indicate we may have put a structural low in with a double bottom here. A brighter relative outlook for  Australia could be in the cards if China is set to stimulate and raise steel output, the anticipation of which has already sharply lifted iron ore prices this week, a key indicator for the Aussie. No notable expectations for the Riksbank tomorrow – as the central bank is expected to wind down its balance sheet expansion next year, while the policy forecast is thought to be in play (perhaps a late 2024 lift-off built into expectations, though the market is ahead of that as 2-year Swedish swap rates have risen close to 30 basis in recent weeks. This is the area where the Riksbank can surprise in either direction relative to expectations). The EURSEK rally has now reversed the entirety of the prior sell-off leg and double underlines the very weak sentiment on Europe, which remains “non-existential” in nature, i.e., so far the market is keeping this about policy divergence and dark clouds over the economic outlook, not about the longer term viability of the EMU, etc…, which in the past 2010-12 crisis inspired SEK upside as a safe haven. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthA bit of a relative pick-up in petro-currencies in the wake of yesterday’s oil rally, as the market bought the fact of US President Biden announcing a release of barrels from strategic reserves. Elsewhere, the NZD is losing relative altitude and the USD and especially CNH reign supreme. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Here, note AUDNZD flipping back to positive - a move that would be “confirmed” by a close solidly above 1.0450. Also note NOKSEK trying to flip positive on the latest oil rally, although beware the Riksbank meeting up tomorrow there. .Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1330 – US Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims 1330 – US Oct. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1330 – US Q3 GDP Revision 1330 – US Oct. Durable Goods Orders 1430 – UK BoE’s Tenreyro to speak 1500 – US Oct. PCE Inflation 1500 – US Final University of Michigan Sentiment Survey 1500 – US Oct. New Home Sales 1900 – US FOMC Meeting Minutes

S&P 500 recovered from session lows, and is likely to keep chopping around in a tight range today. Tech found solid footing in spite of sharply rising yields, which value (finally) embraced with open arms. The riskier end of credit markets doesn‘t yet reflect the stabilization in stocks, which is a first swallow. Make no mistake though, the fresh Fed hawkish talking games are a formidable headwind, and animal spirits aren‘t there no matter how well financials or energy perform. These are though clearly positive signs, which I would like to see confirmed by quite an upswing in smallcaps. All in all, this is still the time to be cautiously optimistic, and not yet heading for the bunker – that time would probably come after the winter Olympics (isn‘t it nice how that rhymes with the post 2008 summer ones‘ price action too?). Market reaction to today‘s preliminary GDP data will likely be a non-event, and we‘ll still probably make fresh ATHs before stocks enter more turbulent times. In spite of the cheap Fed talk still packing quite some punch, let‘s keep focused on the big picture and my doubts as to the Fed‘s ability to carry out the taper, let alone (proactive? No, very much behind the curve) rate raising plans – as said the prior Monday or yesterday: (…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022. (…) True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation. Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018. Inflation expectation indeed held up during the day, marking modest, lingering doubts about Fed‘s ability to execute. Its credibility isn‘t lost, but would be put to a fresh test over the nearest weeks and months. The real economy can still take it, and not roll over – we are in the very early tapering stage so far still. Commodities are pointing the way ahead, and it‘s time for precious metals to shake off the inordinately high levels of fear, which mark capitulation more than anything else. Just when I was writing that it‘s as if the PMs bulls didn‘t trust the latest rally... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls stepped in, the volume is semicredible. I like the lower knot, and would look for increasing market breadth to confirm the short-term reversal. It‘s my view we haven‘t made a major top on Monday. Credit Markets It‘s too early to call a budding reversal in credit markets – HYG needs to pull its weight better. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t yet regained footing, but that moment is quickly approaching – in spite of the above bleak chart. Compare to the Jun period – Fed‘s talk was more powerful then. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls have made a good move, and more strength did indeed follow. The bottom is in, and many countries tapping their strategic reserves, proved an infallible signal. I look for consolidation followed by further strength next. Copper Copper springboard is getting almost complete, and I think the drying up volume would be resolved with an upswing. The daily indicators are positioned as favorably as the CRB Index is. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still correcting, and the upcoming Bitcoin move would decide the direction over the next few weeks. The takeaway from cryptos hesitation is that real assets can‘t expect overly smooth sailing yet. Summary S&P 500 bulls would ideally look to value outperforming tech on the upside, confirmed by HYG at least stopping plunging. A brief yields reprieve would come once the Fed steps away from the spotlight, which is another part of the bullish sentiment returning precondition set. Overall, the very modest S&P 500 moves keep favoring the bulls within the larger topping process. Keep in mind that the Fed isn‘t yet in a position to choke off the real economy through slamming on the breaks, it‘s just the forward guidance mind games for now. We are waiting for the bit more seriously than last time meant, but still a bluff, getting questioned again, as inflation expectations haven‘t broken down, and are facilitating the coming PMs and commodities runs. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Equities 2021-11-24 13:00 6 minutes to read Summary:  The last two trading days US technology stocks have been impacted by rising interest rates and rising market expectations of Fed rate hikes next year. US technology stocks have interest rate sensitivity due to their high equity valuation, but several other key equity markets such as Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland, and Denmark are also having high equity valuation and thus high duration. These equity markets would likely underperform next year if the interest rates move considerably higher. In yesterday’s equity note, we showed how Nasdaq 100 and STOXX 600 are the yin and yang of interest rate sensitivity based on equity market reaction this year with Nasdaq 100 underperforming significantly when the US 10-year yield has a large increase. But outside these two major equity indices, investors felt what higher interest rates can do to sentiment. Danish equities were down 3% in its worst day since March 2020 during the panic days of the pandemic and Dutch equities were down 3.1%. What do these two markets have in common? They both have equity valuations that are well above many other markets, which simplistically can be translated into higher duration which means that these equity markets are more sensitive to big changes in interest rates. Why is that? Because high equity valuation implies that a larger part of the present value comes from the terminal value on cash flows (meaning way into the future) and this value is more sensitive to the discount rate. Dutch equities are the most expensive of 26 equity markets in the developed and emerging markets with a 12-month forward EV/EBITDA of 23.3x with Denmark and Switzerland less frothy at 14.3x and 14.7x respectively. If we exclude Australia, India, New Zealand and Singapore from yesterday’s market reaction because of the time delay to the US session then we do observe that equity markets with high equity valuations were hit harder yesterday confirming that we did observe a repricing related to a larger move in interest rates. It is all related to the value vs growth trade which is essentially STOXX 600 vs Nasdaq 100, but which can also be expressed between individual equity indices such as Norway vs Denmark. The main point of yesterday’s equity note and today’s observations is that we have a group of equity markets such as Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, USA, Switzerland, and Denmark that are in the high equity valuation group. These markets have higher interest rate sensitivity and would likely underperform in a rising interest rate environment and exacerbated if flows also favour value over growth. In our view the equity market is telling investors that tail risks are rising for high duration equities and in order to mitigate this investors should begin balancing their portfolios better between high valued growth stocks and value stocks such as energy, financials, and mining companies. Appendix: 5-year charts of OMXC25 (Danish equities) and AEX (Dutch equities)

The market is struggling with further downward pressure, triggered by a stronger US dollar, and threats that the US and others will start using their strategic oil reserves. Trade Plan Review Indeed, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Saturday (Nov 20th) that his government was considering drawing on oil reserves in response to rising crude prices. Since Japan sources most of its oil from the Middle East, the recent surge in prices and the decline of the yen have pushed up import cost for the Japanese archipelago. As a reminder, last week I anticipated a lower dip that would take place onto the $75.25-76.22 yellow band. The recommended objective would be the $79.37 and 82.24 levels. My suggested stop would be located on the $74.42 level (below both the previous swing low from 7-October and the previous high-volume node and volume point of control (VPOC) from September). Alternatively, you could also eventually use an Average True Range (ATR) ratio to determine a different level that may suit you better. For now, that dip did happen Friday around that support area (likely to become a demand zone) where we might see some ongoing accumulation for the forthcoming hours. Now, we can observe a doji formation (candlestick figure), and more precisely a long-legged doji appearing on the daily chart, which is generally synonymous with indecision. WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart) To visualize how the price action is currently developing, let’s zoom into the 4H chart, which illustrates a much clearer downtrend: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart) So, as you can see, even on that lower timeframe we have a doji pattern, where the bulls are trying to take over the bears to push the market towards higher levels. Will the current 4H downtrend extend lower, or will the longer-term (daily) uptrend resume its rally? Let’s see where this is going to end up. Here is the latest chart from today (Nov 24th): Figure 1 - WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, monthly chart) By the way, my trade target for WTI Crude Oil positions has almost been reached. Please check out more details on my latest oil targets in Monday’s article. That’s all for today, folks. Happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The S&P 500 continues to fluctuate along the 4,700 level. So is this a topping pattern or just a flat correction before another leg up? The S&P 500 index extended its Monday’s decline yesterday, as it fell to the daily low of 4,652.66. But it closed 0.17% higher following an intraday rebound. The market rebounded to the 4,700 level again. The broad stock market keeps trading within an over two-week-long consolidation. For now, it looks like a flat correction within an uptrend. However, it may also be a topping pattern before some more meaningful downward reversal. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,750. The S&P 500 continues to trade along the 4,700 level, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Broke Below the Trend Line Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index reached the new record high on Monday, led by the megacap tech stock rallies, but it reversed its intraday course and yesterday it fell below the 16,200 level. The index broke below its short-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple and Microsoft – a Potential Reversal Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple accelerated its uptrend on Monday and Microsoft slightly extended its recent advance. Both reached the record highs before reversing lower. Yesterday they were mixed, and today we may see some more short-term uncertainty. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% lower this morning following a series of economic data releases. The market will wait for some more economic data releases - the Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income/ Personal Spending at 10:00 a.m., and the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 p.m. We may see a short-term consolidation ahead of tomorrow’s holiday break and the long holiday weekend. So overall, the broad stock market may be trading within a topping pattern. However there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. Nevertheless, we decided to open a speculative short position yesterday, and we are expecting a 5% correction from the current levels. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 backed from the new record high on Monday and it looked like a short-term or medium-term topping pattern. A speculative short position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Dax 40 December longs at very strong support at 15750/700 worked perfectly. EuroStoxx 50 December we wrote: just completed a head & shoulders reversal pattern for a sell signal initially targeting 4310/00 then 4270/60 (a low for the day here), perhaps as far as strong support at 4240/30. That call could not have been more accurate with a low for the day at 4240/30. A potential profit of up to 100 ticks. FTSE 100 December broke minor support at 7260/40 but held 18 ticks above the buying opportunity at 7170/50 Update daily at 07:00 GMT Today's Analysis. Dax longs at strong support at 15750/700 worked perfectly on the bounce with resistance at 15950/16000 for some profit taking. Strong resistance at 16050/100. Shorts need stops above 16150. A break higher keeps bulls in control for today targeting 16260/280. A break above 16290 should target 16350/390. Minor support at 15880/860. Very strong support at 15750/700. Longs need stops below 15650. A break lower meets the best support for this week at 15575/525. EuroStoxx shorts work on the slide to strong support at 4240/30 with a low for the day here so longs also worked perfectly on the bounce to 4300/10. This is the only resistance of the day. Shorts need stops above 4320. A break higher targets 4340/50. Holding resistance at 4300/10 targets 4280/70 before a retest of strong support at 4240/30. Longs need stops below 4220. A break lower is a sell signal. FTSE shot higher to the 7300/10 target as I write this morning, perhaps as far as 7335/40 later on today, before a retest of 7380/90. Minor support again at 7260/40 before a buying opportunity at 7170/50 with stops below 7135. A break lower targets 7100/7090, perhaps as far as 7040/30. Emini S&P December bearish engulfing candle is likely to signal sideways trend so ease severely overbought conditions, although my first support at 4670/68 was not accurate because we over ran again to 4656. Nasdaq December longs at best support for the day at 16230/180 worked as we held above 16100 for a bounce to first resistance again at 16400/450. Emini Dow Jones December shorts at first resistance at 35850/950 worked perfectly with a high for the day here, followed by buying in to longs at strong support at 35450/350 & a low for the day here. Perfect calls!! Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P seeing a recovery as expected reaching very minor resistance at 4700/10 but above here retargets 4720/23 & 4735/40 then 4750. I am still expecting the downside to be limited with first support at 4670/60 . Longs need stops below 4650. Next target & better support at 4630/20. Try longs with stops below 4615. The best support at 4600/4395 this week - stop below 4385. Nasdaq December up to 200 ticks profit on our longs as we hit first resistance again at 16400/450. Shorts need stops above 16500. A break higher targets 16550/600 before a retest of the all time high at 16630/767. Best support for today at 16200/160. Try longs with stops below 16100! Hopefully that gives us enough room. A break lower however sees 16180/230 working as resistance to target 16030/010 before a buying opportunity at 15900/850. Try longs with stops below 15750. Emini Dow Jones December longs at at 35450/350 worked perfectly on the bounce to first resistance at 35850/950 for an easy 400 tick profit. A break above 36000 should be a buy signal targeting 36230/250. Minor support at 35750/700 but below here targets 35600. Strong support again at 35450/350. A break lower however targets 35100/35000. Watch for a bounce from here on the first test. However a break lower meets a buying opportunity at 34800/750, with stops below 34650. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, favorable timing: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. Timing for a physical acquisition is in alignment as well. The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22. The white line assumes a potential price projection for 2022. Even if we are wrong with our assessment, a gift of silver for a long-term horizon is highly likely to appreciate from momentary levels to a much higher price target. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver on Christmas gift list: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The value of a gift like this doesn’t stop there. Numismatics provides for children and teenagers a way to study history. Beautiful coins and bars inspire us to hold on to value for future times and encourage saving. The weekly silver chart shows in a bit more detail possible price expansion from a time perspective. This would be our most conservative picture of the future. The green bordered box is an entry zone for a potential reversal to the upside. With a high likelihood of an interest rate change by the Federal Reserve Bank in the second quarter of 2022, the inner yellow curve supersedes in probability for the expected time frame for a price increase. Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart, physical only, spot to risky: Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of November 26th, 2021. If you look at the daily chart above, you will find that we have seen a swift downward move in the past. Under our beauty principle, there is a good likelihood that this might occur again. If so, reaction times are much longer with a physical purchase than with spot price trading. Meaning there is no need to precision trade (precision purchase) physical silver, but be not spooked if a swift, extended decline might happen. Consequently, we are pointing this purchase out for physical acquisition only but do not advise taking a spot price position based on the risk.   Phase 1 drilling program at Guigui discovered not only the largest intrusive ever found in the district, but it’s the first mineralized skarn ever seen in Guigui! Silver on Christmas gift list: In this bargain hunting season around Black Friday, we find it is especially sensible to refocus and ask different questions. The human psyche is prone to give in to instant gratification, especially after the hard time the last two years provided. But with this much at stake for 2022, possibly being a year that sets a mark in history, it might be more prudent to look for wealth preservation in a longer time horizon to invest one’s fiat currencies rather than short-lived pleasures. After all, a careful look for generations to come, your children, is a view most valuable in general. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 26th, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Equities 2021-11-26 11:20 7 minutes to read Summary:  Equities markets are selling off due to new virus strain due to this strain being much more infectious than the current dominant variants, but more importantly uncertainty over how effective the vaccines will be on this new strain. This uncertainty lifts the probability of more lockdowns and travel restrictions and as a result traders selling off physical companies in energy, mining, financials and consumer discretionary against health care, utilities, and technology stocks. While overshadowed of today's risk-off event there have been several key news out on Chinese equities related to Didi Global, Evergrande, and Meituan which we cover in today's equity update. Equities react to increased likelihood of new lockdowns Financials markets are in upheaval over a new Covid virus strain (called the Nu variant) has been identified in South Africa, which seems to be more infectious than the current dominant strains. With Europe and some northern parts of the US in a stretched situation to an already high number of new cases and hospitalizations, this new virus strain comes at the worst possible time. The good thing is that the more infectious the virus get the less likely it is to also get more virulent, but it can still put pressure on hospitals. Equities are reacting negatively because it is unknown at this point to what degree the vaccines will be effective against the new strain, and thus it increases risk of new lockdowns which leads to an economic hit. Another good thing is that South Africa has been open and transparent about the virus strain which means that countries can react faster and because societies are better prepared the impact overall on the economy such be less than initially during the pandemic. The online vs offline companies trade is expressed today Due to the rising probability of lockdowns, which was already in play before the news of the new virus strain, traders and investors are again pulling out the pandemic playbook on equities. The chart below shows Nasdaq 100 futures vs Stoxx 50 futures over the past 10 trading days which expresses the online/technology vs offline/physical companies. The idea is that online companies can better weather new lockdowns where as companies operating in the physical world obviously are more impacted by travel restrictions and potential lockdowns. Smaller companies are also more vulnerable which is why Russell 2000 futures and the global index on small cap companies are under pressure today. Liquidity is thin today going into the weekend and being on the backside of Thanksgiving in the US (trading in US equities ends today at 1300 EST) and thus the initial reaction in equities was aggressive, whereas a couple of hours into trading European equity futures have bounced back somewhat. Not surprisingly the worst performing sectors today in Europe are energy (lower demand for oil), financials (potential hit to loan books), industrials (more supply constraints and lower demand), consumer discretionary (lower demand for cars and other large consumer items), where as health care, utilities, and technology companies are less off as these sectors are necessities and can weather lockdowns better. China equities continue to weighed down by bad stories Besides the risk-off trade in equities several key stories have hit Chinese equities over the past 24 hours. The Chinese government has asked Didi Global to delist from NYSE emphasizing once again the hidden volatility in Chinese listed stocks in the US. Our view remains that investors that want exposure to China should do that through mainland and Hong Kong listings. Stocks related to the housing market was impacted negatively today from news that Evergrande’s founder Hui Ka Yan has sold shares worth $344mn which is seen as a negative for the company and the industry’s outlook, as the Chinese government is urging Hui to use his own wealth to bolster the company’s finances. Finally, Meituan has reported Q3 earnings showing revenue growth of 38% as expected but operating margins under pressure leading to widening losses as the technology crackdown and “Common Prosperity” are forcing Meituan to increase operating expenses on social security for its gig workers. Appendix: 5-year chart on Nasdaq 100 and Stoxx 50 futures

AUDUSD broke strong support at 7210/00 for a sell signal targeting 7170/65 & 7120/10...we are just 14 pips away as I write. NZDUSD we wrote: hit the next target of 6855 as we look for 6810. Further losses meet strong support at 6780/60. Only 8 pips from 6810 as I write this morning. AUDJPY we had a short at 8300/10 targeting 8200/8180...hit this morning as I write for an easy 100 pip profit, but it looks like we can continue lower today. Today's Analysis. AUDUSD saw a high for the day at 7210/00 with shorts working after the sell signal targeting 7170/65 & 7120/10 Close this morning), perhaps as far as 7070/50 for profit taking on all shorts this week. Strong resistance at 7180/7200. Shorts need stops above 7220. NZDUSD hit the next target of 6855 as we look for 6810 & a test of strong support at 6780/60 for profit taking on shorts before the weekend.. Gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 6860/70 & strong resistance at 6925/35. Shorts need stops above 6955. AUDJPY shorts at 8310/20 already have a 100 pip profit & a break below 8170 is an important sell signal initially targeting 8130 & 8110/00. Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 8220/30 & strong resistance at 8275/85. Shorts need stops above 8300. EURUSD shorts at first resistance at 1.1255/65 worked on the slide to 1.1225 & 1.1200, although we held 14 pips above the next target of 1.1170/60. USDCAD we wrote: first support at 1.2650/40 could see a low for the day...Longs at first support at 1.2650/40 expected to target 1.2690/1.2700 & 1.2740... 1.2720 reached as I write this morning but outlook remains positive. Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. EURUSD holding first resistance at 1.1255/65 offering us 70 pips profit so far as we look for 1.1170/60. No sign of a low yet, so further losses can target 1.1120/10. Gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 1.1230 & 1.1255/60. Strong resistance at 1.1300/10. Shorts need stops above 1.1325. USDCAD our longs at first support at 1.2650/40 expected to target 1.2740 today, perhaps as far as 1.2760/70. If we continue higher look for 1.2800. First support at 1.2650/40 could see a low for the day again today. Second support at 1.2580/70. Stop below 1.2555. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 628th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 27 November 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com  Five key points right off the top: â–  Indeed literally at the top: the above Gold Scoreboard displays valuation having crossed above the $4,000/oz. threshold; and yet you can own Gold for a fraction of that at $1,792/oz given yesterday's (Friday's) settle; "Got Gold?" â–  Both wrong -- and moreover shocked -- we were over Biden's handlers writing "Jerome Powell" rather than "Lael Brainard" on the FedHead index card for the President to read aloud this past Monday; a selection 180° anti-correlative with the Administration's endless money 'n climate change modus operandi; â–  The emphasis of last week's piece was for a near-term technical pullback in Gold's price, wherein 'twas stated "...the 1800s ... appear safe..."; rather, this past week's low was 1777, the "Powell" selection being the fundamental impetus justifying that technical condition; â–  Prior to The WHO's (not the band, but the U.N. organization) effort to maintain its raison d'être with Friday's "Oh my! Omicron!" scare, we were prepared to state that "Powell" would push for a FedFunds rate hike in the 26 January Policy Statement; but if this instead is "The Beginning of the End, Part Deux", shall they ever raise again? â–  And "Oh my! Omicron!" in turn is credited as the catalytical scapegoat for the S&P 500's -2.3% loss on Friday, (recall the single-day COVID losses in 2020 were several times that amount); yet still not a FinMedia peep about the S&P's earnings levels simply not being supportive of the Index: our "live" P/E = 49.3x; its lifetime median = 20.4x; (ready for the next means reversion?) Now: but for two trading day's remaining in November's balance, let's go with the following usual month-end graphic, albeit both Monday and Tuesday can well blow us far from Kansas, Toto. Thus with that in mind and seat belts fastened, here are the BEGOS Markets Standings year-to-date. The economically-driven markets dominate the top three podium spots whilst the safe havens remain the also-rans. "Everything's great!" right? Specific to Gold, as above shown -5.7% to this point in 2021, here below we've the weekly bars and parabolic trends, the ongoing blue-dotted Long stance now four weeks in duration. As measured from a year ago, this past week was Gold's third worst performance on both a points and percentage loss basis. A bit of a heartbreaker, that. Even as "Oh my! Omicron!" is wild-card bullish for Gold; yet "Powell" is the more hawkish-to-be FedHead selection (bearish, but not really) for Gold: "You're saying that because rising rates have actually found Gold to rise too, right, mmb?" Spot on there, Squire. Lest we forget, from 2004-2006 the FedFunds rate rose from 1% to 5% and Gold from 380 to 710. Further, to reiterate, Gold by U.S. monetary debasement (wildly bullish) is today worth the Scoreboard-noted 4001. Either way, Gold's year-over-year percentage track has been, on balance, sideways. Which in turn really emphasizes the "Live by the miners, Die by the miners" nature of precious metals-based equities as is starkly made obvious here: For the record from this time a year ago, as positive we've only Franco-Nevada (FNV) +5%, followed in decline by Gold itself -1%, Newmont (NEM) -3%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) -5%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) -6%, Pan American Silver (PAAS) -12%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) -19%. (Note to those of you fortunate enough to be scoring at home: the U.S. Money Supply for the same period is +12% versus the supply of Gold just +1% ... Pssst: again, "Got Gold?"). As for our Economic Barometer, the past week's slate of incoming metrics found but one which was negative: October's Durable Orders (itself a volatile series). The balance of the bunch had improvements including Home Sales (both New and Existing), plus Personal Income and Spending. But the "turn a blind eye to it" Q3 Chain Deflator was revised upward: that's the party pooper, further highlighted by the Fed's favourite gauge of inflation -- Core Personal Consumption Expenditures -- doubling its October growth over that for September. "Hey Jay! Raise 'em 26 January anyway?" Here's the Baro along with the wee pullback in the S&P: Next as we go 'round the horn with the BEGOS Markets, their respective rightmost daily bars are indicative of Friday's "Oh my! Omicron!" effect. And note from the safe haven standpoint the net comparable under-performance of the precious metals vis-à-vis the leaps by the Bond, Euro and Swiss Franc. As well, the three year-to-late leaders in the aforeshown BEGOS Markets Standings turned tail toward butt ugly, namely Oil, Copper and the S&P 500. And with all those baby-blue dots of trend consistency on the skids, a Santa Claus rally doesn't at present appear in the bids: As for the 10-day Market Profiles for the precious metals, be it for Gold on the left or Silver on the right, from each one's height, they now hardly look right. Indeed, the pick of "Powell" thus far trumps any Gold-positive fear of "Oh my! Omicron!": And thus Gold for November has gone from stud to dud, the rightmost monthly bar below barely green by a nub. Gold's trying to re-secure The Northern Front remains a Battle Royale: So there it all is. Gold was on a November roll -- up some 95 points (+5.3%) -- just over a week ago, albeit with momentum already perceptively slowing, our last missive showing. Then Monday came Biden's shocking bonking of "Brainard" toward maintaining "Powell" as FedHead, and from the month's high of 1880, Gold post-bonk was swiftly down over 100 points. Even as a safe-haven following Friday's WHO surprise "Oh my! Omicron!" cry, Gold bounced a bit, but failed to hold grip, the question now being: "Does Gold further slip?" Regardless, we answer: "Just buy Gold's dip!" Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.deMeadville.com

S&P 500 and pretty much everything apart from Treasuries and safe haven plays down precipitously, with panic hitting oil the hardest. The post Thanksgiving session turned out not so light volume one, but the fear wasn‘t sending every risk-on asset cratering by a comparable amount. What we have seen, is an overreaction to uncertainty (again, we‘re hearing contagion and fatality rate speculations – this time coupled with question mark over vaccine efficiency for this alleged variant), and the real question is the real world effect of this announcement, also as seen in the authorities‘ reactions. Lockdowns or semi-equivalent curbs to economic activity are clearly feared, and the focus remains on the demand side for now, but supply would inevitably suffer as well. Do you believe the Fed would sit idly as the economic data deteriorate? Only if they don‘t extend a helping hand, we are looking at a sharp selloff. Given the political realities, that‘s unlikely to happen – the inflation fighting effect of this fear-based contraction would be balanced out before it gets into a self-reinforcing loop. With the fresh stimulus checks lining up the pocket books, Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit etc., we‘re almost imperceptibly moving closer to some form of universal basic income. Again, unless the governments go the hard lockdown route over scary medical prognostications (doesn‘t seem to be the case now), such initiatives would cushion financial markets‘ selloffs. Looking at Friday‘s price action, PMs retreat shows that all won‘t be immediately well in commodities, where oil looks the most vulnerable to fresh bad news in the short run (while stocks would remain volatile, they would find footing earliest). Demand destruction fears are though overblown, but the dust looks to need more time to settle than it appeared on Friday above $72-$73: (…) New corona variant fears hit the airwaves, and markets are selling off hard. We can look forward for a light volume and volatile session today – S&P 500 downswing will likely be cushioned by the tech, but high beta plays will be very subdued. Commodities are suffering, and especially oil is spooked by looming (how far down the road and in what form, that’s anyone’s guess) economic activity curbs / reopening hits. Precious metals are acting as safe havens today (mainly gold) while the dollar is retreating – and so will yields, at least for the moment. Time for readjustment as the wide stop-loss in oil was hit overnight – it’s my view that the anticipated demand destruction taken against the supply outlook, is overrated. When the (rational / irrational) fears start getting ignored by the markets, we‘re on good track. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is still far out of the woods, and a good sign of better days approaching would be tech and healthcare sound performance joined by financials and energy clearly on the mend. Earliest though, HYG should turn. Credit Markets It‘s too early to call a budding reversal in credit markets – HYG needs to not merely retrace half of its daily trading decline. Money coming out of hiding in Treasuries, would be a precondition of prior trends returning. They will – they had been merely punctured. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals gave up opening gains, and with the hit to inflation expectations, lost the developing tailwind. It would though come back in an instant once calm minds prevail or fresh stimulus gets sniffed out. Crude Oil Crude oil had a catastrophic day – how far are we along capitulation, remains to be seen. The oil sector didn‘t decline by nearly as much, highlighting the overdone and panicky liquidation in black gold. Copper Copper decline didn‘t happen on nearly as high volume as in oil, making the red metal the likelier candidate for a rebound as the sky isn‘t falling. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum marching up on the weekend, were a positive omen for the above mentioned asset classes. In spite of cryptos still being subdued, the overall mood is one of catious optimism and risk very slowly returning. Summary Friday‘s rout isn‘t a one-off event probably, and S&P 500 would turn higher probably earlier than quite a few commodities. Cynically said, the variant fears let inflation to cool off temporarily, even as CPI clearly hasn‘t topped yet. As demand destruction was all the rage on Friday, supply curbs would get into focus next, helping the CRB Index higher – and that‘s the worst case scenario. Precious metals certainly don‘t look to be on the brink of a massive liquidation – the current selloff can‘t be compared to spring 2020. For now, the price recovery across the board remains the question of policy, of policy errors. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Decentraland price is seeing a minor pullback after a 10% upswing. The correction could extend, allowing MANA to retest $4 before rallying to a new all-time high at $7.5. A breakdown of the range low at $2.73 will invalidate the bullish thesis. Decentraland price is currently undergoing a minor retracement. This downswing is likely to continue until it retests a crucial reversal zone. But the move will provide sidelined buyers with an opportunity to accumulate before starting a new upswing to potentially fresh all-time highs. Decentraland price prepares for a blastoff Decentraland price has been teetering around the 50% retracement level at $4.32 for quite some time. Even the COVID-induced crash did not push it below the level. Instead, MANA rallied roughly 10% to $5.23, but it is now experiencing a short-term pullback. Investors can expect Decentraland price to head lower and pierce through the trading range’s midpoint at $4.32. This move will put it closer to a reversal zone, extending from $3.40 to $3.94. A dip into this area will allow sidelined buyers to accumulate and get on the Metaverse bandwagon, propelling Decentraland price to rally. The first hurdle that MANA will face is $4.32, followed by the range high at $5.9. Clearing these ceilings will open the path to new highs. The 100% Fibonacci extension level at $6.31 is close to the range high and is likely to be tagged quickly. However, it could go further – market participants could expect MANA to retest the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at $7.53. This run-up will indicate a 91% ascent from $3.93 and set a new high for the Metaverse token. The downswing into the buy zone might sound alluring, but investors should note that it will only arrive if the midpoint of the trading range at $4.32 is breached. Failing to do so might trigger a premature uptrend for MANA. MANA/USDT 4-hour chart While things are looking up for Decentraland price, a breakdown through the base of this high probability reversal zone, ranging from $3.93 to $3.40, will be indicative of weak bullish momentum. A daily close below $3.40 is likely to trigger a retest of the range low at $2.74. If Decentraland price produces a swing low beneath this barrier, it will invalidate the bullish thesis.

S&P 500 rebound still ran into selling pressure before the close – the bulls lost momentum however well the government and Fed‘s words were received. Credit markets hold the key – specifically, how corporate bonds and Treasuries perform compared to each other. This would be also reflected in the yield spreads, dollar moves, or cylicals vs. stay-at-home stocks.Today‘s analysis will be shorter than usually, so let‘s dive into the charts to fulfill my title‘s objective (all charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is still far out of the woods, and the bulls have to decidedly repel any selling pressure - a good sign of which would be a close in the 4,670s.Credit MarketsAs encouraging as the HYG upswing is, it‘s too early to call a budding reversal a done deal. LQD to TLT performance is a good start, which however needs to continue. The worst for the bulls would be renewed rush into Treasuries, sending other parts of the bond market relatively down.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals retreated again, but the bullish case is very far from lost. As discussed in the caption, the upswing appears a question of time – gold and silver are ready to turn on soothing language of fresh accomodation.Crude OilCrude oil upswing left a lot to be desired and as I tweeted yesterday, remains the most vulnerable within commodities. The dust clearly hasn‘t settled yet within energy broadly speaking.CopperCopper held up considerably better than many other commodities, and gives the impression of sideways trading followed by a fresh upswing as having the highest probability to happen next.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum marching up today, is a positive omen for gradual and picky return of risk-on trades. The overall mood is still one of catious optimism.SummaryFriday‘s rout hasn‘t been reversed entirely, and markets remain vulnerable to fresh negative headlines. The degree to which current ones (relatively positive ones, it must be said) helped, is a testament of volatility being apt to return at a moment‘s notice. I‘m certainly not looking for the developments to break inflation‘s back – CPI clearly hasn‘t peaked. Precious metals are well positioned to appreciate when faced with any grim news necessitating fresh monetary or fiscal activism.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Emini S&P December rocketed back to my selling opportunity at 4660/65. Shorts here worked perfectly with a high for the day just 4 points above & an over night collapse to 4582 as I write. Outlook remains negative after last week's bearish engulfing candle. Nasdaq December unexpectedly shot higher to strong resistance at 16400/450. Shorts here worked perfectly with a high for the day here as we sell off towards 16200. Emini Dow Jones December shot higher towards strong resistance at 35300/350 but we only reach 35234. Outlook remains negative. Update daily at 07:00 GMT. Today's Analysis. Emini S&P holding below 4600/4395 in what looks like a developing bear trend keeps the pressure on to test very strong support at 4560/50 & also the measured target for the completed head & shoulders sell signal. Therefore worth trying longs with stops below 4540. A break lower however is a sell signal targeting 4505/00. First resistance at 4625/30 but above 4635 can retest our selling opportunity at 4660/65. Try shorts with stops above 4670. A break higher targets 4685/90. Nasdaq December minor support at 16200/150 but outlook is more negative after the weekly bearish engulfing candle. A retest of last week's low at 16000/15988 is likely. A break below here is an important sell signal, expected to target support at 15880/830. This is likely to hold the first test although longs could be risky. A break lower sees 15830/880 act as resistance to target 15700 & 15600/550. Strong resistance at strong resistance at 16400/450. Stop above 16470. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 16550/580. Emini Dow Jones December broke support at 34800/750 this morning so holding below here targets 34550 & the measured target for the head & shoulders at 34450/350 (hit this morning exactly as I write) & as far as the 200 day moving average at 34250/200. Longs look risky. Eventually we could reach strong support at 33700/650. Longs need stops below 33500. Gains are likely to be limited with first resistance at 34750/800 but above 34850 opens the door to 35000/100, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 35300/350. Try shorts with stops above 35450 To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

USDCAD seeks support The Canadian dollar edged higher after Q3’s GDP beat expectations. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart indicates a bullish bias in the US dollar’s favor. The break above the resistance at 1.2770 suggests that the bulls retain control of the direction. An overbought RSI has tempered the bullish fever temporarily, which may be an opportunity for buyers to accumulate. September’s high at 1.2900 is the next target. A bullish breakout could trigger an extended rally towards 1.3100. 1.2730 is now fresh support. AUDUSD falls towards 11-month low The Australian dollar bounced back on upbeat GDP in Q3. The break below 0.7170 has negated October’s rally. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart confirms that sentiment has turned sour. The Aussie is heading to October 2020’s low and the psychological level of 0.7000. An oversold RSI has prompted sellers to start to cover in that congestion area. 0.7190 is a resistance from the previous demand zone and trend followers are likely to sell a rebound. Buyers will need to take out those offers to ease the pressure. UK 100 to test daily support The FTSE 100 struggles with doubts about vaccine efficacy against the omicron variant. A drop below the daily support at 7190 triggered a sharp liquidation. Then a short-lived rebound has met stiff selling pressure at 7170. The index is hovering above the origin of the October rally at 6945. The bulls will need to clear the resistance before they could hope for a recovery. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the price to test the triple bottom (6830) from the daily timeframe. And that is the key to the uptrend’s integrity in the medium term.

Equities 2021-11-30 14:30 6 minutes to read Summary:  Twitter's founder Jack Dorsey is stepping down as CEO leaving the reign to CTO Parag Agrawal. This is hopefully the beginning of a new trajectory for Twitter that has underperformed relative to its potential for way too long. The company has two main objectives. Lift revenue growth to around 30% which would put Twitter well above Facebook and Alphabet in terms of growth, and then drastically improve the operating margin to around 35% which would be almost double of the current level. Is this Twitter’s Nadella moment? Another technology founder in Silicon Valley is leaving the stage, Mark Zuckerberg of Meta is one of the few left, with Jack Dorsey stepping down as CEO after presumed a lot of pressure from shareholders such as the activist hedge fund Elliott Management. His successor is the CTO Parag Agrawal and Dorsey will stay on the board for 2022. The main question is whether this is Twitter’s Nadella moment (Nadella is the current CEO of Microsoft and took over in 2014) meaning whether the new CEO with less strings attached and not being a founder can drastically change the growth and product profile of the company. Too much fat Our main issue with Twitter has always been the lack of consistency in operating margins. Given how consistent Google and Facebook are running their business it has always been a mystery why Twitter has not been more consistent in its operating performance. The company’s operating margin has come down for three straight quarters despite a healthy backdrop for online advertising spending in terms of demand and pricing. Free cash flow generation has been very disappointing over the past year and ultimately that has been driving the share price lower. Twitter has to fundamentally improve the EBITDA margin from its current 18.5% to somewhere closer to 35%; it will be a stretch to demand Facebook-like margin of 50%. If Twitter’s new CEO can deliver that then shareholders are in for some great returns. But more importantly there are no excuses for not delivering high revenue growth while improving the operating margin when you are generating $5bn in annual revenue. Facebook and many other technology companies have been able to grow revenue and operating margin at the same time. Twitter must do the same. Source: Bloomberg So there are two operating yardsticks for shareholders: revenue growth and operating margin. The latter should easily be done by either reducing headcount or at least stop hiring more people at the same pace as before. On revenue growth the key yardstick is to grow faster than the duopoly (Meta and Alphabet) which is expected to grow revenue around 20-25%. Twitter needs to take market share and get closer to Snap revenue growth in order not to lose the narrative and sentiment from investors. In our book, Twitter should be able to grow 30-35% on improved engagement, product features, more brand spending from large brands etc. and with analysts currently estimating 21% revenue growth in 2022, there is a heavy and urgent task ahead for the new CEO. Source: Bloomberg Twitter is an acquisition target With Dorsey gone as CEO and eventually leaving the board by late 2022, it clears the way for an acquisition of the company should the right buyer with the right price come by. Twitter could be an interesting bolt-on acquisition for a traditional media company that wants to enter the social media industry. Investors were initially trading the shares higher on the news of Dorsey stepping down, but the shares ended lower for the session now down 43% from the peak in late February. Given the expectations from earlier this year it is clear that the company has not performed as expected and the new CEO Agrawal will have to quickly earn the trust of investors. For Twitter we really hope this is the company’s Nadella moment. Analysts remain positive on the stock with a 12-month price target of $68 which 49% above yesterday’s close.

Oops!... Gold did it again and declined below $1,800 last week. What’s happening in the gold market? Did you enjoy your roast turkey? I hope so, and I hope that its taste – and Thanksgiving in general – sweetened the recent declines in gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (London P.M. Fix) plunged from above $1,860 two weeks ago to above $1,780 last week. It has slightly rebounded since then, but, well, only slightly. What exactly happened? Funny thing, but actually nothing revolutionary. After all, the reappointment of the same man as the Fed Chair and the publication of the FOMC minutes from the meeting that had already took place earlier in November, were the highlights before Thanksgiving. Well, sometimes lack of changes is a change itself and information about the past can shed some light on the future. Let’s start from Powell’s renomination for the second term as the Federal Reserve chair. In response, the market bets that the Fed will hike interest rates more aggressively in 2022 have increased. At first glance, the strong investors’ reaction seems strange, given that the monetary policy shouldn’t radically change with Powell still at the helm. However, the continuation of Powell’s leadership implies that Lael Brainard, regarded as more dovish than Powell, won’t become the new Fed Chair – what was expected by some market participants. Hence, the dovish scenario won’t materialize, which is hawkish for gold. Just two days later, the FOMC revealed the minutes from its November meeting. The main message – the Fed decided to taper its quantitative easing – was, of course, included in the post-meeting statement. The minutes revealed, however, that the Fed officials had become more worried about inflation and had expressed a more hawkish stance than the statement suggested. First of all, we learned from the minutes that some central bankers opted for more aggressive tapering and a more flexible approach that would allow for adjustments in the face of high and persistent inflation: Some participants preferred a somewhat faster pace of reductions that would result in an earlier conclusion to net purchases (…). Some participants suggested that reducing the pace of net asset purchases by more than $15 billion each month could be warranted so that the Committee would be in a better position to make adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, particularly in light of inflation pressures. Various participants noted that the Committee should be prepared to adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range for the federal funds rate sooner than participants currently anticipated if inflation continued to run higher than levels consistent with the Committee's objectives (…) participants noted that the Committee would not hesitate to take appropriate actions to address inflation pressures that posed risks to its longer-run price stability and employment objectives. This is because the FOMC members’ concerns about inflation strengthened. As we can read in the minutes, They indicated that their uncertainty regarding this assessment had increased. Many participants pointed to considerations that might suggest that elevated inflation could prove more persistent. These participants noted that average inflation already exceeded 2 percent when measured on a multiyear basis and cited a number of factors—such as businesses' enhanced scope to pass on higher costs to their customers, the possibility that nominal wage growth had become more sensitive to labor market pressures, or accommodative financial conditions—that might result in inflation continuing at elevated levels. Last but not least, the Fed officials also made other hawkish comments. Some participants argued that labor force participation would be lower than before the pandemic because of structural reasons. It implies that we are closer to reaching the “full employment”, so monetary policy could be less accommodative. What’s more, “some participants highlighted the fact that price increases had become more widespread”, while a couple of them noted possible signs that inflation expectations had become less anchored. So, the Fed officials’ worries about inflation strengthened. Implications for Gold What does it all imply for the gold market? Well, both the reappointment of Powell as the Fed Chair and the latest FOMC minutes were interpreted as hawkish, which pushed gold prices down. The more upbeat prospects for monetary tightening are clearly negative for the yellow metal, as they boosted the bond yields (see the chart below). This is something I warned investors against earlier this month. I wrote in the Fundamental Gold Report on November 16 that “when something reaches the bottom, it should rebound later. And if real interest rates start to rally, then gold could struggle again.” This is exactly what happened. Later, in the article on November 18, I added that “I will feel more confident about the strength of the recent rally when gold rises above $1,900”. Well, gold failed to do this, so I’m not particularly bullish on gold right now. We could say that gold did it again: it played with the hearts of gold bulls but got lost in the game, as it didn’t resist the pressure. Yes, the new Omicron variant of coronavirus has been noted, and uncertainty about this strain could provide short-term support for the yellow metal. However, it seems that the prospects of monetary tightening and higher real interest rates will continue to put downward pressure on gold prices. I agree, the rally looked refreshing after months of disappointment. However, it seems that we have to wait longer, possibly for the start of the Fed’s increasing the interest rates, to see gold truly shining. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Dogecoin price is moving sideways after a breakout from a descending triangle pattern. A potential 400% move to $1.08 will face obstacles up to $0.35, beyond which, DOGE should rally swiftly. On-chain metrics are hinting at an increase in large transactions and a paradigm shift in the nature of holders. Dogecoin price is at a crucial tipping point in its evolution with the potential for it to trigger a massive volatile move. Hurdles exist, however, that will make it difficult to reach its intended target, of a new all-time high. Dogecoin price at make or break levels Dogecoin price has set up three lower highs and two higher lows, which when connected using trend lines reveals a descending triangle. This technical formation forecasts a 361% upswing to $1.09, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and low to the breakout point at $0.24. DOGE breached the triangle’s hypotenuse on October 18 at $0.24. Since this point, the meme coin has struggled to move higher but failed. Interestingly, Dogecoin price has been moving sideways and has retested the $0.193 support level thrice since August 3 with the latest revisit on November 26. This created a triple-tap setup, a bullish technical formation that forecasts a reversal in the trend. Since Shiba Inu has stolen DOGE’s spotlight, things have been calm and consolidative for the original meme coin. If the buying pressure increases, however, pushing Dogecoin price to pierce through the $0.29 level to $0.35, and it produces a daily close above it, it will trigger an uptrend. In this scenario, it will allow market makers to collect the sell-stop liquidity resting above $0.35. This development will allow DOGE to create a platform for the next leg-up at $0.44. Clearing this hurdle will open the path to retest the current all-time high for Dogecoin price at $0.74. According to this prediction, DOGE could extend its bull rally to tag $1.09, its intended target. Due to the recent downswing, this upswing will represent a 400% gain from the current position at $0.22. DOGE/USDT 1-day chart As mentioned earlier, Shiba Inu seems to have siphoned off the hype, investors, and capital from Dogecoin, affecting its price, but things seem to be reverting, with some on-chain metrics suggesting a flip of the narrative is possible. On-chain metrics predict a bright future Looking at the transaction data tells a story about the nature of investors. Large transactions track transfers that are $100,000 or more. An increase in this metric serves as a proxy for institutions and their investment thesis. Over the past six months, the number of such transactions has increased by 70.7% from 1,570 to 2,680. This uptick in the metric suggests that high networth investors are starting to take interest in DOGE at the current price levels. DOGE large transaction chart While the above metric provides an insight into the potential investments, IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model shows where significant blockades are present. This fundamental index reveals that the DOGE will face formidable challenges ranging from $0.30 to $0.34. Here roughly 500,000 addresses that purchased 47 billion DOGE are “Out of the Money” and are likely to sell to breakeven, increasing the selling pressure. If buyers overcome this uptick in sell-side momentum and produce a daily close above $0.35, however, it will clear the daily demand mentioned above. This move will also open the path up for market makers to collect liquidity. All in all, this on-chain metric also promotes a bullish idea for DOGE with a contingency that the bullish momentum pushes the meme coin above $0.35. DOGE GIOM chart While the on-chain metrics described above serve as a tailwind for the bullish thesis, the new addresses joining the network add a dent to it. This metric shows that new users joining the Dogecoin network over the past six months have declined by 34.7% from 34,320 to 22,380. This reduction indicates that despite the capital inflows observed in the large transaction metric, a majority of investors are not yet interested in DOGE. Hence, this divergence between the new addresses and the large transaction chart paints indecision. DOGE new addresses chart The discrepancy noticed above can be explained in the holders’ chart which shows a paradigm shift. In November 2020, the composition of DOGE investors was 74.2% holders (1+ years), 18.6% Cruisers (1 month to 1 year) and 7.2% traders (less than a month). As of November 2021, this composition has changed and shows that cruisers are currently dominating with a 50.7% stake, while holders have dropped to 42.1%. This drastic decrease in the long-term holders suggests that these investors have been distributing their holdings over the past year ie., indicating increased sell-side pressure, which adds credence to DOGE’s lackluster performance over the period. In summary, if long-term holders stop offloading their DOGE holdings, investors can expect Dogecoin price to start inflating. DOGE Ownership chart On the other hand, if the selling pressure increases, knocking Dogecoin price below the $0.193 support level, it will lead to a retest of the descending triangle’s base at $0.16. If the bears produce a daily candlestick below this crucial barrier, it will open up DOGE to a massive 45% crash to $0.09, with a potential pitstop at $0.12.  

USDJPY tests daily support The yen consolidates gains after a drop in Japan’s unemployment rate. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at March 2017’s high (115.50). The drop below 114.80 then 114.00 has forced short-term positions to bail out, exacerbating the sell-off. The US dollar is hovering above the key daily support at 112.70. An oversold RSI has brought in some buying interest. 114.20 is a fresh resistance. On the downside, a breakout could dent the optimism in the medium-term and pave the way for a bearish reversal. NZDUSD breaks major support The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure as risk assets suffer from the omicron variant scare. A break below the daily support at 0.6860 has put the buy-side on the defense. Sentiment has become increasingly downbeat after the pair fell past last August’s low at 0.6805, which is a second line of defense on the daily chart. 0.6700 would be the next support. The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation has caused a temporary rebound. But buyers will need to clear 0.6890 before they could turn the tables. US 30 sees limited rebound The Dow Jones 30 struggled to bounce as investors grew cautious. A break below the demand zone near 35500 has prompted the bulls to exit and reassess the short-term sentiment. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound as traders take profit. 35700 is now a resistance and the bears may see a rally as an opportunity to sell into strength. The demand zone between 34150 and 34400 from mid-October is a major floor to keep the uptrend intact. A deeper correction may send the index towards 33000.

Nevertheless, this might be over soon. Regulation might kill the majority of the expanded crypto world. Bitcoin might be banned, as it has been in the past in various countries. And yet, once fiat currency value implodes, bitcoin will be the last man standing. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, last weeks call on the nose: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of November 23rd, 2021. We posted the above weekly chart of bitcoin in last week’s chart book release. We anticipated a low-risk entry. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, as planned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 29th, 2021. Since then, prices have swiftly penetrated our entry zone. We caught two trades, a daily and a weekly time frame position. We posted these trades (entries and the partial exits), as usual, in real-time in our free Telegram channel.Furthermore, we employ a quad exit strategy that ensures instant risk elimination by quickly taking half of the position off. With entries of US$ 53,877 (daily timeframe trade) and US$ 54,000 (weekly timeframe trade), we were able, with first exits at US$ 54,591 and US$ 55,797, to not only eliminate risk but ensure profits on half of the positions of 1.33% and 3.33%. As well our next following targets have been reached! We took another 25% of position size out at US$ 55,811.6 and US$ 57,317.7, which booked us another 3.59% return on the daily position and 6.14% on the weekly position. The remaining 25% of position sizes on each trade we call runners. With stops set now at break-even entry levels, we can only produce additional winnings for each trade. Each trade had tight stops, assuring less than half a percent of risk per trade.   BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, modest odds for follow through: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 30th, 2021. The possible contrarian short signal on the monthly chart makes the weekly trades success probabilities for the runner smaller. Nevertheless, this quad exit approach allows for low-risk positioning versus endless mind chatter and debate since it is typical that different time frames show different long, short and sideways plays. Here, bitcoin again overcomes adversity. Typically, tight ranged instruments erase many trade opportunities for profit margins relating to commissions and risk to small. The earlier mentioned profit percent numbers are typical for bitcoins volatility and, as such, allow for risk reduction and short- to midterm profitability being more extensive than the average S&P500 annual return. Bitcoin, overcoming adversity: Bitcoin will be the cure to inflation damage for those you invested in it in a timely manner. Inflation is a creeping disease to money. Humans seem to have in history always procrastinated towards dangers of inflation, mostly since inflation treads slowly. Inflation also holds illusions supporting hope, hope that also fuels procrastination. While most who suffer under inflationary times think prices for goods went up, the reality is that monetary value went down. With this illusion, we hold on to stock portfolios seemingly rising, bonds, 401ks, and Roth IRAs trusting governments for the status quo to be protected or at least trouble to be temporary. Much more likely, most citizens are drained of their savings and cheated out of their retirements. At the end of such a monetary devaluation cycle, it will be the last time bitcoin will defend its place.  Doubt will finally vanish. Unfortunately, too late for those who did not educate themselves early enough to find a haven in this principled way to protect one’s wealth. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|November 29th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

  The S&P 500 sold off on Friday after news about the new Covid variant. Today we will likely see a rebound but the short-term picture remains bearish. For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The S&P 500 index lost 2.27% on Friday, Nov. 26, as investors reacted to the news about new Covid variant detected in South Africa. The market broke below its recent local lows and it got away from the 4,700 level. The Friday’s trading action looked like a meaningful downward reversal. The nearest important support level is now at 4,550-4,580. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,650, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 retraced most of its early November advance, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Fell Closer to 16,000 Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index remained relatively stronger than the broad stock market on Friday, as it didn’t break below the early November local low. However, it got close to the 16,000 level and it retraced almost 800 points from its last Monday’s new record high of 16,764.85. The index closed above the 16,000 mark on Friday, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Is At the Previous High Let’s take a look at biggest stock in the S&P 500 index: AAPL. Apple accelerated its uptrend a week ago on Monday and it reached the new record high of $165.70. However, it retraced almost all of its intraday advance that day. On Friday it got back to a potential support level of around $157. For now, it looks like a downward correction. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.0% higher this morning, as global markets are shrugging off the new Covid fears. We will likely see an intraday consolidation following higher opening. The broad stock market index may enter a flat correction within a short-term downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 traded within a short-term topping pattern last week and on Friday it suffered an over 2% sell-off. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% correction. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Commodities 2021-11-29 12:45 Summary:  Crude oil suffered its largest one-day crash since April 2020 on Friday in response to worries the new omicron virus variant could drive renewed demand weakness at a time where the US is about to release millions of barrels of crude oil from its strategic reserves. While many have already concluded Friday's slump was an overreaction caused by thin market liquidity, the focus is once again squarely on the response from OPEC+ who will meet on Thursday to set production levels for January and potentially beyond. Crude oil suffered its largest one-day crash since April 2020 on Black Friday in response to worries the new omicron virus variant could drive renewed demand weakness at a time where the US and other major oil importing nations are about to unleash millions of barrels of crude oil into the market from strategic reserves. Equally importantly was probably the very bad timing with the news hitting the markets on a low liquidity day after the Thanksgiving holiday. Long held bullish conviction trades got stopped out as the sudden elevated level of risk aversion drove major position adjustments across most asset classes. As volatility spiked, the options market also kicked into gear with hedging of short puts adding an additional layer of pressure with sell orders being executed at whatever price available. On Friday the 30-day historical volatility jumped from below 25% to 44% and it has ticked higher today, an indication of some unfinished business from Friday, but also a market which is struggling to settle down with Thursday’s OPEC+ decision adding an additional layer uncertainty. So far today, the market is trading higher, but already off their overnight highs, but the reduction in hedge selling has allowed buyers to take a fresh look with some concluding the move on Friday was most likely an overreaction. Not least considering the prospect for support being provided by OPEC+ who may attempt to prop up prices when they meet this Thursday. The group may decide to postpone the January production increase or if necessary, temporary cut production into a period that was already expected to see the return of a balanced market. Brent crude oil’s 11.6% top to bottom slump on Friday was only arrested when the price reached its 200-day moving average at $72.70 and after the price retraced 61.8% of the August to October surge. A key reason behind that run up in prices was driven by increased switching demand from record priced gas to cheaper oil-based fuels such as diesel, heating oil and propane. Following the drop in crude oil and continued strength in gas and power prices, the prospect for continued and rising switching activity will remain a key source of extra demand that did not exist during the 2020 slump. Source: Saxo Group Adding to crude oil’s current bid are forecasts from the world’s top commodity traders, all speaking at the FT’s Global Commodity Summit, that oil prices could return to $100 over the coming years as investment in new supplies slows down with oil majors diverting capex towards renewables instead of continued oil and gas production. It highlights a potential rising dilemma where politicians and investors want to move towards renewables at a much faster pace than actual changes can be made. Thereby creating the risk of a supply shortfall before demand eventually begins to slow towards the second half of this decade. Brent crude oil has set its sight on the 2019 peak at $75.6 ahead of the downtrend (red line) from the 2008 peak. Some focus on today’s FOMC meeting which may yield a change in the interest rate outlook while the market seeks further clues about the Fed’s view on inflation, and with that the need for inflation hedges through long commodity exposure.

EURJPY breaks double bottom The safe-haven Japanese yen soars on news of a vaccine-resistant covid variant. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates weakness in the euro’s previous rebound. The pair has closed below last September’s low at 127.90, a major floor to keep price action afloat in the medium term. This is a bearish signal that the sell-off is yet to end with 127.00 as the next support. The RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area may attract some buying interest. However, the bulls will need to lift 129.50 before a reversal could take shape. GBPUSD struggles to bounce back The pound continues on its way down against the US dollar over divergent monetary policy. The pair is hovering near a 12-month low around 1.3280. Sentiment remains bearish after a failed rebound above 1.3420. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the downward momentum. 1.3390 is the first hurdle ahead. Its breach would prompt the short side to cover and open the door to the daily resistance at 1.3510. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would send the price to 1.3200. GER 40 to test major floor The Dax 40 plunged as investors fret that new lockdowns could wreck the recovery. The gap below 15760 has forced leveraged buyers to bail out, stirring up volatility in the process. The momentum is typical of a catalyst-driven sell-off. Below 15150 the index is testing the psychological level of 15000. The RSI’s oversold situation has attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd in the demand zone. Further down, 14820 is a key floor to maintain the uptrend. 15530 has become the closest resistance in case of a rebound.

The cryptocurrency market is developing its growth, which is now also supported by Bitcoin. In the last 24 hours, the capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies has risen by 2.7% to 2.66 trillion, while the first cryptocurrency has risen by 0.8%. At the same time, it is important to note the continued pressure on BTCUSD, which is being kept off the ground by financial market worries. On Tuesday, Powell acknowledged the inflation problem in the US and suggested abandoning the term "transitory", which he coined at the start of the year. For the markets, this means that the world's top central bank has stepped up the inflation warpath and become more hawkish, promising a higher degree of volatility for traditional markets. Among cryptocurrencies, this promises to have the greatest impact on bitcoin as it is the most populated by financial institutions. Likely due to volatility and Bitcoin's inability to move to sustained growth, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has once again been pushed down 6 points to 34. However, note that ETHUSD is up almost 12% in the last seven days, continuing to climb the ladder again step by step. Its current level of $4720 is an arm's length away from the historical highs set in November at $4840 and has been gaining steadily for the fourth day in a row. Here we see a classic market pattern: consolidation at an important level in September, a breakout and subsequent steady and methodical buying throughout October and the first half of November, and finally a period of correction and cooling off in November while maintaining significant levels. Now, the correction and consolidation look complete, and the ether looks set to rewrite historical highs. Among the fundamental global drivers behind this sentiment are improvements in the network itself and its applicability to working projects, as well as the balance between supply and demand for coins. In choosing between the leading currencies, the cryptocurrency world is betting on Ether as the future of cryptocurrency as a business, with bitcoin still being a good savings vehicle, but now becoming vulnerable to the turmoil of the traditional financial.

Fundamental factors EUR/USD ended last week with a steamrolling. This week, the pair keeps edging up. Why? First, the uncertainty over the new Covid-19 variant, omicron, led to a surge in demand in safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss. Since the US dollar lost its safe-haven role, traders preferred the EUR to the greenback. Second, the USD was rising as the markets were pricing in the rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, omicron raised concerns that the US central bank can delay a rate increase – the bearish factor for the USD. Overall, a recovery in the US dollar depends on the vaccine progress against the omicron variant. Today, on Wednesday, we see the US dollar climbing up. It is the result of Powell’s comments. Jerome Powell is the Federal Reserve Chair. He signaled his intention to taper faster, and it supported the USD. Both omicron and Powell’s comments increased volatility in EUR/USD. What to expect further? The US will reveal essential economic data in the upcoming weeks. If it is strong, the Fed can turn more hawkish at the FOMC meeting on December 16. Technical factors The overall trend is bearish. EUR/USD has been moving down since May. However, the short-term trend is bullish as EUR/USD surged and recovered some losses thanks to the weak dollar. It has failed to cross the resistance level of 1.1370 – the high of November 19. The pair can reverse down to the recent low of 1.1260. If it crosses it from the top down, there are more chances the pair will fall further to the psychological mark of 1.1200. Resistance levels are 1.1370 and 1.1460. Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For a personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!

  Stock prices were volatile on Tuesday, as the S&P 500 fell to the new local low. But today it may rebound again. but will the downtrend continue? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The S&P 500 index lost 1.90% on Tuesday, Nov. 30. The market went lower following testimonies from the Fed Chair Powell and the Treasury Secretary Yellen. On Monday the broad stock market retraced more than a half of its Friday’s sell-off, but yesterday it fell to the new local low of 4,560.00. Today it is expected to open 1.0% higher again, so we will see more short-term volatility. The nearest important support level is at 4,560-4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,650, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 retraced most of its early November advance, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Relatively Stronger Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index remained relatively stronger than the broad stock market yesterday, as it didn’t extend a short-term downtrend. It remained above its Friday’s local low and above the 16,000 mark, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Got Close to the Record High Again Let’s take a look at biggest stock in the S&P 500 index: AAPL. Apple accelerated its uptrend a week ago and it reached the new record high of $165.70. However, it retraced almost all of its intraday advance that day. On Friday it got back to a support level of around $157. And yesterday it got back to the all-time high, as it closed slightly above the $165 price level. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.0% higher this morning following an overnight rebound from the yesterday’s new short-term low. We will likely see an intraday consolidation following a higher opening. And for now, it looks like a consolidation within a short-term downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 extended its short-term downtrend yesterday, but today it is expected to open higher again. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% correction. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 plunged on accelerated tapering intentions, and much of the risk-on sectors and commodities followed – even precious metals declined a little in sympathy. But where is the larger reasoning? If the Fed truly intends to taper faster in its belated fight against inflation, it‘s a question of not only markets throwing a tantrum, but of the real economy keeling over. Inflation is a serious problem, including a political one, and here come the Omicron demand-choking effects if the fear card gets played too hard. Thankfully, reports indicate that the alleged variant is merely more contagious and having comparatively milder effects. That‘s how it is usually turns out with mutations by the way – remember that before the number 30 frequently thrown around, shuts off thinking including in the markets. The world‘s economic activity didn‘t come to a standstill with Delta, and it appears such a policy route won‘t be taken with Omicron either. That‘s why I was telling you on Monday that any inflation reprieve the scary news buys, would likely turn out only temporary. Unless the Fed decides to make it permanent, which is what I am doubting based on its track record and the more rocky landscape ahead that I talked in mid Nov extensive article. For now, the Fed‘s pressure is real, and premarket rallies that are sold into during regular sessions, must be viewed with suspicion. It‘s not that we‘ve flipped into a (secular) bear market, but the correction is palpable and real – I‘m not looking for the habitual Santa Claus rally this year. Big picture, the precious metals resilience is a good sign, and return of cyclicals with commodities is the all-clear signal that I‘m however not expecting this or next week. Cryptos resilience is encouraging as much as various stock market ratios (XLY:XLP offers a more bullish view than XLF:XLU – I‘ve been covering these helpful metrics quite often through 2020), which makes me think we‘re in mostly sideways markets for now. At least as I told you on Monday, the (rational / irrational) fears started getting ignored by the markets, meaning we‘re on a gradually improving track. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 isn‘t out of the hot water, and it‘s still just a close in the 4670s that would mark the end of peril to me. The financial sector has to turn, strength has to come to smallcaps simultaneously – the 500-strong index is still performing in a too risk-off way. Credit Markets Positive HYG divergence isn‘t enough – the broad underperformance of S&P 500 must be reversed to establish stronger stock market foundations. Powell just added to the risk-off posture in bonds, and I‘m looking keenly at the expected, ensuing (in)ability to absorb less loose monetary conditions. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are acting weak, but not overly weak. When the markets get fed up with having to bear the tapering / tightening (real and verbal) interventions, it would be gold and silver that rise first. Crude Oil Crude oil turned out indeed weakest of the weak when fear overruled everything. Capitulation is a process, and it‘s quite underway already in my view. The way black gold crashed, the way it would rise once the sky meaningfully clears. Copper Copper weakness is what I don‘t trust here as other base metals did quite better. But again, yesterday was an overreaction to the Fed news that it would discuss speeding up taper. Just discuss. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum holding relatively high ground, is a reason to think the risk-on scales would tip positive. While BTC is still correcting, I‘m looking for it to join Ethereum. Summary S&P 500, risk-on and commodities aren‘t yet on solid footing as Powell pronouncements outweighed the dissipating corona uncertainty. Either way, the effects on inflation would be rather temporary – inflation indicators clearly haven‘t topped yet as the implicit Fed admission of dropping the word temporary confirms. Once the tightening mirage gets a reality check in the economy and markets, look for precious metals to truly shine. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Commodities 2021-12-01 15:00 Summary:  Industrial metals spent most of November trading sideways with concerns about demand being offset by tight market conditions, especially in aluminum and copper. In fact, the price has during these past few months, when worries about Chinese demand took centerstage, been trading relatively close to the average price seen since April. A behavior which in our view highlights a strong underlying demand for copper, not least considering the prospect for inelastic supply struggling to meet green transformation demand towards electrification. Industrial metals spent most of November trading sideways with concerns about demand being offset by tight market conditions, especially in aluminum and copper. Apart from two failed upside attempts in May and October, copper has since April stayed mostly rangebound not swaying too far away from its average price, at $9550 per tons in London and $4.35 per pound in New York. During the past few months copper has performed relatively well considering heightened worries about the economic outlook for China, and more specifically its property sector which has seen near defaults as well as a slump in home sales. Additional headwinds have been created by the stronger dollar and central banks beginning to focus more on inflation than stimulus. In order to counter Chinese economic growth concerns, Vice Premier Liu He has been out saying growth this year should exceed targets, and the government plans more support for business. High Grade Copper has been averaging $4.35 since April with the current action confined to a range between $4.2 and $4.5 while major support can be found in the $4 area. The lack of momentum in recent months has driven a sharp reduction in the speculative long held by hedge funds, a development that could trigger a significant amount of activity once the technical and/or fundamental picture becomes clearer. Against these mostly demand focused macroeconomic headwinds, we have at the same time been witnessing an unusual synchronised tightness in stock levels monitored by the major futures exchanges in London and Shanghai. Unusual in the sense that price arbitrage between the two exchanges often drive changes in stock levels from one exchange to the other. Recently however we have been witnessing levels fall at both exchanges, with aluminum and copper stockpiles at the LME falling to their lowest levels since 2007 and 2005 respectively. In fact, the six industrial metals traded on the LME are currently all trading in backwardation for the first time since 2007. A condition where spot prices trade higher than futures, and driven by the mentioned drop in inventories in response to a post-pandemic surge in demand as well as supply-chain disruptions. On the subject of supply, especially during the coming years when the green transformation will account for an increased proportion of global copper demand, planned mining taxes in Chile, the worlds biggest producers have raised the alarm bells. Politicians are looking for a bigger share of mining profits to help resolve inequalities exacerbated by the pandemic, and with a potential approval moving closer BHP Group has warned it could derail investments thereby making it harder to meet future demand, especially considering the mentioned need for copper towards electrification. Source: Bloomberg An example of increased copper demand driven by the green transformation are the number of finished and planned subsea interconnectors which are paramount for cutting emissions and boosting the effectiveness of renewable energy production. Increased volatility in the production of power from renewable sources such as wind and solar as opposed to traditional sources like coal and gas will continue to increase the need for large scale transmission capabilities of power between countries and regions. The cable below has been used in the now finished 720 kilometer North Sea Link between Norway and the UK, as well in the under-construction Viking link between Denmark and the UK. It carries as much as 1.45 Gigawatt (about the capacity of a nuclear reactor) with most of the 50 kg/meter weight coming from copper. Several other subsea links are planned over the coming years, and together with the need for increased capacity on the electrical grid to support the roll out of EV’s, demand for copper, the king of green metals, look set to increase over the coming years. Electrification and urbanisation will drive growth in copper wrote my colleague Peter Garnry in this update from November 19. In it he also offered a table of mining companies providing exposure to copper. The table below shows 16 mining companies with exposure to copper with Codelco, the largest copper producer in the world, absent from the list as the Chilean miner is only listed in Chile and thus not investable for our clients. The copper mining industry has delivered a median total return in USD of 132.6% over the past five years beating the global equity up 105% in the same period. The rising copper prices the past year driven by investors positioning themselves in green metals (defined as metals that will play a key role in the green transformation) which in turn has pushed up revenue in the industry by almost 40%. Sell-side analysts are generally bullish on copper miners with a median upside of 16% from current levels. In our view investors should select one or two copper miners to get exposure and avoid the ETFs on the industry as they are too broad-based and lack the pure exposure profile needed to play the copper market. As the table also show, there is no such thing as pure exposure to copper except for futures, options and CFDs on the underlying copper. The miner with the highest revenue exposure to copper is Antofagasta with 84.8% revenue share from copper extraction and refining. Most copper miners also extract gold and silver as part of their copper operations, and out of the 16 copper miners in our list, only 6 of these miners have more than 50% of revenue coming from copper extraction and refining.

Saxo Bank has today released its 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2022. The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets: The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Facebook faceplants on youth exodus The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years While these predictions do not constitute Saxo’s official market forecasts for 2022, they represent a warning against the potential misallocation of risk among investors who might typically assign just a one percent chance of these events materialising.  It’s an exercise in considering the full extent of what is possible, even if not necessarily probable, and particularly relevant in the context of this year’s unexpected Covid-19 crisis. Inevitably the outcomes that prove the most disruptive (and therefore outrageous) are those that are a surprise to consensus. Commenting on this year’s Outrageous Predictions, Chief Investment Officer at Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen said:   “The theme for 2022 Outrageous Predictions is Revolution. There is so much energy building up in our inequality-plagued society and economy. Add to that the inability of the current system to address the issue and we need to look into the future with a fundamental view that it’s not a question of whether we get a revolution but a more a question of when and how. With every revolution, some win and some lose, but that’s not the point—if the current system can’t change but must, a revolution is the only path forward. A culture war is raging across the globe and the divide is no longer simply between the rich and the poor. It’s also the young versus the old, the educated class versus the less educated working class, real markets with price discovery versus government intervention, stock market buy-backs versus R&D spending, inflation versus deflation, women versus men, the progressive left versus the centrist left, virtual signalling on social media versus real changes to society, the rentier class versus labour, fossil fuels versus green energy, ESG initiatives versus the need to supply the world with reliable energy—the list go on. We collaborated globally on Covid vaccines in 2020 and 2021. Now we need a new Manhattan Project–-type endeavour to set the marginal cost of energy, adjusted for productivity, on the path to much lower levels while eliminating the impact of our energy generation on the environment. Such a move would unleash the most significant productivity cycle in history: we could desalinate water, make vertical farms feasible almost anywhere, increase computer powers to quantum states, and continue to explore new boundaries in biology and physics.” Remember that the world is forever evolving if at varying speeds, while business and political cycles are always finite.” The Outrageous Predictions 2022 publication is available here with headline summaries below: 1. The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Summary: Policymakers kick climate targets down the road and support fossil fuel investment to fight inflation and the risk of social unrest while rethinking the path to a low-carbon future. Realising the inflationary threat from surging commodities prices and the risk of an economic train wreck due to the unrealistic timeline for the green energy transition, policymakers kick climate targets down the road. They relax investment red tape for five years for oil production and ten years for natural gas production, to encourage producers to ensure adequate and reasonably priced supplies that bridge the gap from the energy present to the low-carbon energy future. This development has already jacked up prices and price volatility, not only for energy, but also for industrial metals, most of which are needed in greater quantities for the green transformation push. On top of this, surging energy prices have spiked prices for diesel and especially fertiliser, important farming costs that raise concerns about the production of key food crops. Market impact: The iShares Stoxx EU 600 Oil & Gas ETF (Ticker: EXH1:xetr) surges 50 percent as the whole energy sector gets a new lease on life 2. Facebook faceplants on youth exodus Summary: The young abandon Facebook’s platforms in protest at the mining of personal information for profit; the attempt by Facebook parent Meta to reel them back in with the Metaverse stumbles. Facebook has gone from being a vibrant hub of young people, to a platform for older “boomers” as young people would say. Young people are increasingly turned off by Facebook’s algorithms turning their social media experiences into that of homogenous feedback loops of identical content, or even worse, hateful and disinforming content. Facebook’s own research suggests that teens spend 2 to 3 times longer on TikTok than on Instagram (which is Facebook’s youngest social media asset), and that Snapchat is the preferred way to communicate with friends. A new company name (Facebook is now called Meta) and brand identity to separate and shield Instagram (its most valuable current asset), together with creating a new product tailored towards young people, is the exact same playbook tobacco companies have used for years. But in 2022, investors will realise that Meta is rapidly losing the young generation and thus the future potential and profitability of the company. In a desperate move, Meta tries to acquire Snapchat or TikTok while throwing billions of dollars into building the creepy Metaverse, which is aimed at surveilling users more directly than ever before and getting young people back into Meta’s universe of social media platforms, in the perceived wisdom that being a first mover is always best in technology. The plan struggles to take off as the young generation fails to sign up. Market impact: Facebook parent company Meta struggles, down 30 percent versus the broader market and is urged to spin off its components as separate entities, shattering Zuckerberg’s monopolistic dreams. 3. The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis Summary: The US mid-term election sees a stand-off over the certification of close Senate and/or House election results, leading to a scenario where the 118th Congress is unable to sit on schedule in early 2023. The chaotic 2020 US Presidential Election was a scary moment for many US institutions. The sitting president Donald J. Trump initially refused to conceded defeat in the election and complained that the election was stolen, a claim that was never seriously challenged in a court of law but one which had widespread sympathy among the Trump base. A crowd of hard-core believers in the stolen election conspiracy was encouraged by the President’s rhetoric to a sufficient degree to storm Capitol Hill and “stop the steal”, i.e., to prevent the election result from being made official on January 6, 2021, in a scene unprecedented in US history. Prior to this, and then again later in the hotly contested Senate run-off elections in Georgia, dedicated election officials—many of them Republican—were doing their duty to tally the real results while risking their life amidst threats—even death threats—from extremists. In 2022, the Republicans ensure that no such traditional duty-bound officials are in the “wrong” place, with all election-related positions filled by toe-the-line partisans ready to do anything to tilt the results to suppressing voter turnout. In the wake of the 2022 election, a handful of key Senate and House races come down to the wire and one or both sides move against certifying the vote, making it impossible for the new Congress to form and sit on its scheduled first day of January 3, 2023. Joe Biden rules by decree and US democracy is suspended as even Democrats also dig in against the Supreme Court that was tilted heavily by Trump. A full-blown constitutional crisis stretches over the horizon over the stand-off as 2023 gets under way. Market impact: extreme volatility in US assets, as US treasury yields rise and the USD drops on hedging against the existential crisis in the world’s largest economy and issuer of the world’s reserve currency of choice. 4. US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral Summary: By the fourth quarter of 2022, the wages for the lower half of US incomes are rising at an annualised 15% clip as companies scramble to find willing and qualified workers who are increasingly selective due to a rising sense of entitlement as jobs are plentiful relative to the meagre availability of workers at all skill levels. The official US CPI reached a peak at 11.8% in February 1975. It wasn’t until the recession of 1980-82 and brutal policy rate increases to levels as high as 20% that inflation was finally killed. In 2022, the Federal Reserve and Fed chair Jerome Powell repeats the same mistake all over again as the post-Covid outbreak economy and especially the labour market are severely supply constrained, making a mockery of the Fed’s traditional models. Powell believes millions of Americans will return to work and fill some of the 10.4 million open job positions as Covid-19 fades. But this is plain wrong. Some have retired early due to the crisis and thus have permanently left the US workforce. The big difference between today and yesterday is that the pandemic has fuelled a great awakening of workers. Across sectors and income classes they realise they are now more empowered than ever. They demand a better experience: better job conditions, higher wages, more flexibility and a sense of purpose from work. Coupled with persistent inflationary pressures coming from the production side, the energy crisis and labour shortage, this results in unprecedented broad-based double-digit annualised wage increases by Q4. As a consequence, US inflation reaches an annualised pace above 15% before the start of 2023, for the first time since WWII. This prompts the Federal Reserve into a too-little, too-late move to tighten monetary policy faster in a desperate effort to tame inflation. But the central bank has lost credibility; it will take time to regain it. Market impact: extreme volatility in US equity and credit markets. The JNK high-yield ETF falls as much as 20% and the VIXM mid-curve volatility ETF soars as much as 70%. 5. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Summary: To defend against the rise of populism, deepen the commitment to slowing climate change, and defend its borders as the US security umbrella recedes, the EU launches a bold $3 trillion Superfund to be funded by pension allocations rather than new taxes. The security umbrella provided by the US during the Cold War and afterwards over much of Eastern Europe is rapidly fading and threatens to fail entirely in the years ahead as the US looks east at far more serious economic and military rivals. French President Macron, backed by a Draghi moving to stave off Italy’s own rise of the populists, rolls out a vision for an “EU Superfund” that will address the three-fold priorities of defence, climate and the related clean energy transition. Given the EU’s aging population and heavy tax burdens, policymakers know that it will be impossible to finance the Superfund with higher taxes on incomes or other traditional tax revenues. Instead, France has a light-bulb moment as it seeks to overhaul its pension system and looks at Europe’s enormous pensions. It decides that all pensions for all workers above the age of 40 must allocate a progressively larger portion of their pension assets into Superfund bonds as they age. This allows new levels of fiscal stimulus in the EU even with the sleight-of-hand trick of hiding the spending in inflation and negative real returns on low-yielding Superfund bonds that are actually EU bonds in disguise. At the same the younger generation enjoys a stronger job market and less unfair tax burdens as the system proves such a success that income taxes are lowered progressively. Market impact: Bond yields harmonise across Europe, leading to German Bunds underperforming. EU defence, construction and new energy companies are some of the best performers. 6. Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy Summary: Mimicking the meme stock Reddit Army tactics of 2020-21, a group of women traders launch a coordinated assault on companies with weak records on gender equality, leading to huge swings in equity prices for targeted companies. Women are not willing to wait any longer. Tired of the lack of progress, 2022 sees a massive grass-roots effort based on social media platforms to force companies that break civil rights laws to address unfair and sexist, racist, ageist and ableist practices. Although women have been struggling with lower salaries, they have higher saving rates than men. Those savings will now come in handy as they decide to take the situation into their own hands and throw their considerable influence around in a #metoo movement in financial markets. In contrast to the often-nihilistic original Reddit Army, the Women’s Reddit Army will be more sophisticated, with women traders coordinating a long squeeze by shorting stocks of selected patriarch companies. At the same time, they will direct funds to companies with the best metrics on female representation in middle management and among executives. Instead of condemning the development, politicians worldwide welcome and support their cause, putting even more pressure on companies with outdated patriarchal attitudes, poor gender equality in pay, and under-representation of women on boards and in management to address the errors of their ways. Market impact: The movement gets real results as the broader market catches on to the theme and joins in, forcing targeted company prices sharply lower, which sees companies scrambling to change their ways. It marks the beginning of a gender parity renaissance in markets. 7. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member Summary: The world’s geopolitical alliances will lurch into a phase of drastic realignment as we have an ugly cocktail of new deglobalising geopolitics and much higher energy prices. Countries reliant on imports for the majority of their energy inputs in a rapidly deglobalising world will need to move fast to strategically reorientate strategic alliances and secure long-term energy supplies. One such alliance could involve India, with its mighty technology sector, joining the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as non-voting member, or in some sort of free trade zone. This alliance would see a reduction in India’s energy insecurity as it secures long-term import commitments. Interregional trading zones will secure “closer to home” production and investment, combined with the security of reliable supplies from India’s point of view, and a reliable destination market from the GCC’s point of view. The alliance helps lay the groundwork for the GCC countries to plan for their future beyond oil and gas and for India to accelerate its development via huge new investments in infrastructure and improvements in agricultural productivity together with fossil fuel imports, bridging the way to a post-carbon longer-term future. Market impact: The Indian rupee proves far more resilient than its EM peers in a volatile year for markets. The bubbly Indian stock market corrects with other equity markets in early 2022 but proves a strong relative performer from the intra-year lows. 8. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform Summary: Musicians are ready for change as the current music streaming paradigm means that labels and streaming platforms capture 75-95 percent of revenue paid for listening to streamed music. In 2022, new blockchain-based technology will help them grab back their fair share of industry revenues. While the early days of NFTs have looked chaotic and dangerous for asset buyers, the outlook is bright for NFT technology. Not only does an NFT-based platform offer a new way to verify the ownership of rights, but also a way to distribute rights without intermediaries, i.e., a completely decentralised system obviating the need for a centralised platform. The use case for NFTs could prove particularly compelling in the next step for the technology for content generators in the music industry as musicians feel unfairly treated by the revenue sharing models of the current streaming platforms like Spotify and Apple Music. These models don’t guide individual subscribers’ fees to the actual music an individual subscriber listens to. Rather, all subscription fee revenues are aggregated and distributed based on every artist’s share of total streams. In addition, the platforms take a substantial cut, which together with the cut paid to labels is some 75 percent or more of the total revenue. In 2022, an NFT-based service takes hold and begins offering music from notable stars – perhaps the likes of Katy Perry, The Chainsmokers and Jason Derulo, all of whom have recently backed an effort to create a new blockchain-powered streaming platform. Other well-known artists begin pulling their music from the now “traditional” streaming platforms, which suddenly find themselves terminally disrupted. Investors see the eventual writing on the wall for podcasts, movies and other forms of digitisable contents as well. Market impact: Investors recognise that Spotify’s future is bleak, sending its shares down 33 percent in 2022. 9. New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Summary: The latest hypersonic missile tests are driving a widening sense of insecurity as this tech renders legacy conventional and even nuclear military hardware obsolete. In 2022 a massive hypersonic arms race develops among major militaries as no country wants to feel left behind. In 2022, it is clear from funding priorities that hypersonics and space are the heart of a new phase of the deepening rivalry between the US and China on all fronts—economic and military. Other major powers with advanced military tech join in as well, likely including Russia, India, Israel and the EU. Hypersonic capabilities represent a game-changing threat to the long-standing military strategic status quo, as the technology brings asymmetric new defensive and offensive capabilities that upset the two massive pillars of military strategy of recent decades. The first is the potential for devastating hypersonic tech defence against the conventional attack capabilities of long-range bombing aircraft, as well as the so-called “deep water” navy of ships that can bring the fight to any corner of the globe without refuelling. The second pillar of the old Cold War era was the principle of mutually assured destruction (MAD) in the event of nuclear war, under which it was pointless to launch a nuclear war as long as there was still time for the opponent to launch an equally destructive ICBM counterattack from land- and submarine-based ballistic missiles. But the speed and agility of hypersonic tech introduces the belief that superior defence could thwart an attack entirely and even allow for new first-strike capabilities. Market impact: massive funding for companies like Raytheon that build hypersonic tech with space delivery capabilities and underperformance of “expensive conventional hardware” companies in the aircraft and ship-building side of the military hardware equation. 10. Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years Summary: Young forever, or for at least a lot longer. In 2022, a key breakthrough in biomedicine brings the prospect of extending productive adulthood and the average life expectancy by up to 25 years, prompting projected ethical, environmental and fiscal crises of epic proportions. The year 2022 sees a breakthrough from a multi-factor approach, as a cocktail of treatments is put together that tweaks cell-level processes in order to extend their life and thus the life of the organism composed of those cells. It’s not cheap, but it’s effective and has already been demonstrated on laboratory mice containing human DNA, extending their lives some 30% and more. The prospect of a massive leap in human quality of life and life expectancy are huge wins for mankind but bring an enormous ethical and financial quandary. Imagine that almost everyone can look forward to living to an average age of 115 and more healthily. What would this mean for private and government pensions, or even the ability or desire to retire? And what about the cost to the planet if it is set to support billions more people, not to mention whether or not there is enough food to go around? And then there is the ethical question of whether it is humane to not make the cocktail available to everyone. In short, how would our value systems, political systems and planet cope?

SNDL shares fell 9% on Wednesday as the entire sector becomes less attractive. Sundial is still up 19% YTD but down 41% since November 12 high. Indiana and Germany mull further legalization. Sundial Growers (SNDL) stock dropped another 9% to $0.5655 on Wednesday. This arrives after the 2.1% fall in Tuesday's session. SNDL stock has dropped 41% since mid-November's range high, which was a product of better than expected Q3 earnings. The cannabis grower and distributor saw its stock rebound 2.7% to $0.5810 in Thursday's premarket. Sundial Growers (SNDL) Stock News: Indiana, Germany next on the list for possible legalization The Indiana Democratic Party has announced its intent to push for the legalization of cannabis on both the medical and recreational front. As such, it is holding the first of several community meetings in the Midwest state next week to receive public input. Germany's new coalitional government has signalled in recent days that it intends to legalize cannabis for recreational use. The central European country is already the world's largest medical marijuana market. Kentucky State Rep. Nima Kulkarni (D) has filed bills that would work to legalize cannabis in her state. The first bill would decriminalize the growing and sale of small amounts of marijuana. The second bill would allow those over 21 years of age to possess, buy or sell up to one ounce of marijuana and grow as many as five plants for personal use. There is no word yet on whether or not the newfound takeover king of Canada's cannabis industry will announce yet another acquisition. Since the beginning of the year, Sundial has used its own shares to buy up multiple assets. It began the year by acquiring cannabis retailer Inner Spirit for C$131 million. It bought Canadian liquor distributor Alcanna for C$346 million. Alcanna owns two-thirds of Nova Cannabis, a retail operation that should drive future revenue growth. Nova Cannabis owns more than 60 cannabis retail shops in Canada. With more than C$500 million still on its balance sheet, many observers think the shopping spree is not yet over as Sundial seeks to grow itself via acquisition. If Sundial again issued new shares to pay for another acquisition instead of its cash, then-current investors would be even further diluted. This concern may be driving the current sell-off in the share price. SNDL key statistics Market Cap $1.2 billion Price/Earnings 5 Price/Sales 25 Price/Book 1 Enterprise Value $737 million Operating Margin -142% Profit Margin 0% 52-week high $3.96 52-week low $0.42 Short Interest 15% Average Wall Street Rating and Price Target Hold, $1.01   Sundial Growers (SNDL) Stock Forecast: Stock price headed to $0.50 On Wednesday, SNDL shares broke through long-term support from October 6 just above $0.61. This means the stock has little if any support until $0.50. From Wednesday's story: "If SNDL breaks this level to close below $0.60, then $0.50 is the next support. The stock danced around this level from December 2019 through January 2020. Tuesday saw a brief low below October 6, so expect the break lower to happen again." Though the stock is up about 2.7% in the premarket on Thursday, FXStreet expects it to keep tumbling. The 20-day moving average crossed over the 9-day moving average at $0.71 on Monday, meaning that level is the price to beat in order for bulls to ride to the rescue. Above here is only the mid-November swing high at $0.95 where the stock faced resistance two sessions in a row. XCAN, the S&P/TSX Cannabis Index, is down 34% year to date, while SNDL is up 17%. SNDL 1-day chart

The hawkish revolution continues. Powell, among the screams of monetary doves, suggested this week that tapering could be accelerated in December! People live unaware that an epic battle between good and evil, the light and dark side of the Force, hard-working entrepreneurs and tax officials is waged every day. What’s more, hawks and doves constantly fight as well, and this week brought a victory for the hawks among the FOMC. The triumph came on Tuesday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress. He admitted that inflation wasn’t “transitory”, as it is only expected to ease in the second half of 2022. Inflation is therefore more persistent and broad-based than the Fed stubbornly maintained earlier this year, contrary to evidence and common sense: Generally, the higher prices we’re seeing are related to the supply and demand imbalances that can be traced directly back to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy. But it’s also the case that price increases have spread much more broadly and I think the risk of higher inflation has increased. Importantly, Powell also agreed that “it’s probably a good time to retire that word.” You don’t say! Hence, the Fed was wrong, and I was right. Hurray! However, it’s a Pyrrhic victory for gold bulls. This is because the recognition of the persistence of inflation pushes the Fed toward a more hawkish position. Indeed, Powell suggested that the FOMC participants could discuss speeding up the taper of quantitative easing in December: At this point the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high and it is therefore appropriate, in my view, to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases, which we actually announced at the November meeting, perhaps a few months sooner, and I expect that we will discuss that at our upcoming meeting in a couple of weeks. What’s more, Powell seemed to be unaffected by the Omicron coronavirus strain news. He was a bit concerned, but not about its disturbing impact on the demand side of the economy; he found supply-chain disruptions that could intensify inflation way more important. That’s yet another manifestation of Powell’s hawkish stance.   Implications for Gold What does the Fed’s hawkish tilt imply for the gold market? Well, gold bulls get along with doves, not hawks. A more aggressive tightening cycle, including faster tapering of asset purchases, could boost expectations of more decisive interest rates hikes. In turn, the prospects of a more hawkish Fed could increase the bond yields and strengthen the US dollar. All this sounds bearish for gold. Indeed, the London price of gold dropped on Wednesday below $1,800… again, as the chart above shows. Hence, gold’s inability to stay above $1,800 is disappointing, especially in the face of high inflation and market uncertainty. Investors seem to have once again believed that the Fed will be curbing inflation. Well, that’s possible, but my claim is that despite a likely acceleration in the pace of the taper, inflation will remain high for a while. I bet that despite the recent hawkish tilt, the Fed will stay behind the curve. This means that the real interest rates should stay negative, providing support for gold prices. The previous tightening cycle brought the federal funds rate to 2.25-2.5%, and we know that after an economic crisis, interest rates never return to the pre-crisis level. This is also what the euro-dollar futures suggests: that the upcoming rate hike cycle will end below 2%. The level of indebtedness and financial markets’ addiction to easy money simply do not allow the Fed to undertake more aggressive actions. Will gold struggle in the upcoming months then? Yes. Gold bulls could cry. But remember: tears cleanse and create more room for joy in the future. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

The Fed has announced tapering of its quantitative easing! Preparing for the worst, gold declined even before the release - will it get to its feet? . Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome to the stage the one and only tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing! Yesterday was that day – the day when the FOMC announced a slowdown in the pace of its asset purchases: In light of the substantial further progress the economy has made toward the Committee's goals since last December, the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. It’s all but a bombshell, as this move was widely expected by the markets. However, what can be seen as surprising is the Fed’s decision to scale back its asset purchases already in November instead of waiting with the actual start until December. Hawks might be pleased – contrary to doves and gold bulls. How is the tapering going to work? The Fed will reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities each month: Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook. So, instead of buying Treasuries worth $80 billion and agency mortgage‑backed securities worth $40 billion (at least), the Fed will purchase $70 billion of Treasuries later this month and $35 billion of MBS, respectively. Then, it will buy $60 billion of Treasuries and $30 billion of MBS in December, $50 billion of Treasuries and $25 billion of MBS in January, and so on until the last round of purchases in May 2022. This means that the quantitative easing will be completed by mid-year if nothing changes along the way. The announcement of the tapering was undoubtedly the biggest event; however, I would like to point out one more modification. The sentence “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors” was replaced in the newest statement with “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory”. It’s not a big alteration, but “expected to be” is weaker than simply “is”. This means that the Fed’s confidence in its own transitory narrative has diminished, which implies that inflation might be more persistent than initially thought, which could support gold prices more decisively at some point in the future. The Fed also explained why prices are rising: “Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have contributed to sizable price increases in some sectors”. Unsurprisingly, the Fed didn’t mention the surge in the money supply and the unconventional monetary and fiscal policies, just “imbalances”! Implications for Gold What does the Fed’s announcement of a slowdown in asset purchases imply for the gold market? Well, the yellow metal showed little reaction to the FOMC statement, as tapering was in line with market expectations. Actually, gold prices fell to three-week lows in the morning — right after the publication of positive economic data but before the statement. However, gold started to rebound after the FOMC announcement, as the chart below shows. Why? The likely reason is that both the statement and Powell’s press conference were less hawkish than expected. After all, the Fed did very little to signal interest rate hikes. What’s more, Powell expressed some dovish remarks. For instance, he said that it was a bad time to hike interest rates: “it will be premature to raise rates today” (…) We don’t think it is a good time to raise interest rates because we want to see the labor market heal more.” The bottom line is that gold’s reaction to the FOMC statement was muted, as tapering was apparently already priced in. The lack of bearish reaction is a positive sign. However, gold’s struggle could continue for a while, perhaps until the Fed starts its tightening cycle. For now, all eyes are on Friday’s non-farm payrolls. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

XAUUSD tests key support Gold treads water as markets await US jobs data release. The metal remains under pressure after it failed to maintain bids above 1780. Sellers are testing the daily support at 1760. A bearish breakout would shatter hopes of a swift rebound and send the price to last September’s low at 1725. That move could then threaten the integrity of the uptrend on a longer timeframe. 1806 is a fresh resistance and sellers could be waiting to double down at a better price. On the upside, a bullish breakout may propel the metal to 1845. EURUSD attempts bullish reversal The euro recoups losses as traders reposition ahead of today’s nonfarm payrolls. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the bearish push. The pair has found support near June 2020’s lows around 1.1190. Then successive breaks above 1.1270 and 1.1370 have prompted short interests to bail, paving the way for a potential reversal. 1.1460 next to the 30-day moving average would be the target and its breach may turn sentiment around. 1.1240 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. US 500 heads towards daily support The S&P 500 continues on its way down as investors jump ship amid the omicron scare. The latest rebound has been capped by 4650, a sign that the bears are in control of short-term price action. A combination of pessimism and lack of buying interest means that the index is stuck in a bearish spiral. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound as intraday sellers cover their positions. 4450 at the origin of a previous bullish breakout would be the next target. 4360 is a second line of defense that sits in a daily demand zone.

S&P 500 gave up sharp intraday gains on the first Omicron patient in CA. Corona packing punch still, and sending TLT far above yesterday‘s highs while the dollar remained unchanged. That‘s as risk-off as can be on a little surprising headline – the key difference is though that the Fed doesn‘t have the back of buy the dippers this time. The accelerated taper noises coupled with demand destruction thanks to Omicron, is delivering an inflation repreive. Make no mistake though, should demand be choked off too hard, fresh stimulus would have to come – for now in the heat increasingly being turned on, practically all asset classes suffer to varying degrees. The market isn‘t yet at a stage of sniffing out fresh stimulus countering the destructive policy effects which are being felt currently. Economic activity around the world hasn‘t been hampered, but markets are willing to err on the pessimistic side. For now and still – only when the riskier debt instruments such as HYG turn up to deal with the prior downswing, would be a reason to cheer for animal spirits returning. That idea sounds though hollow at this time. The bears have the upper hand unless proven otherwise – that is, by a close in the 4670s. Which is what the title says... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 breaking below the 50-day moving average, and taking time consolidating below, isn‘t bullish at all. The reversal was broad based, arguably hitting value more. Yes, market breadth is dismal. Credit Markets Positive HYG divergence is gone – the broad underperformance of S&P 500 must be reversed first to make stock market upswings trustworthy. It remains unclear how much would HYG be able to rebound when quality debt instruments cool off. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals weakness remains, but isn‘t convincing enough to short the market, no. The coming reversal to the upside would be ferocious, but we aren‘t there yet. Crude Oil Crude oil plunge is slowing down, and it‘s more than black gold that‘s looking for direction here – this concerns the commodities complex as such. I‘m looking for copper to show the way, and oil to follow. Copper Copper is sitting at a rising support line, undecided yet whether to take the Fed and Omicron threats seriously or not. It‘s wait and see for now, but the bullish side has the medium-term upper hand. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are cautious as well, but the bears are looking for an ambush – let‘s see how far they can get. Summary The ugly S&P 500 close concerns both value and tech – and there was no premarket upswing to speak of. The bears have the upper hand for today as markets look to be in the phase of sell first, ask questions later. Any reversal (in stocks or commodities) has to be accompanied by a credible upswing in riskier bonds, ideally with money coming out of the dollar as well. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Forex 2021-11-29 13:00 4 minutes to read Summary:  The Friday meltdown in USDJPY and JPY crosses was all about position squaring as we had just come from a place of anticipating a more hawkish shift from central banks, particularly the US Fed. The sense of whiplash was most acute in USDJPY, which had just been up testing multi-year highs before the deleveraging across markets on the new omicron covid variant clouding the outlook. FX Trading focus: Narrative whiplash for JPY traders on omicron variant concerns The news of the new omicron variant of covid could not have come at a more difficult time for the market to absorb for at least two reasons. First, of course, was the poor liquidity when US markets were closed Thursday and only open part of Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Second was that we had just earlier the same week seen Fed Chair Powell and Brainard elevating the relative focus and position of grappling with inflation in their acceptance speeches, which had sent Fed rate hike expectations to new highs for the cycle early last week before the news hit. That ratcheting up of Fed rate anticipation had helped take USDJPY to new highs since early 2017 above 115.00 and EURUSD to new lows below 1.1200. But the positioning build-up in USDJPY has been far more extreme and the reaction in JPY crosses on Friday was fully in fitting with the JPY’s old status as a safe haven. Note that AUDJPY had its worst single-day drop since the heart of the pandemic outbreak panic in March of last year, while EURJPY has poked below the important 128.00 area that would suggest a break-down if the move holds. EURUSD rose sharply, as the sudden repricing of the Fed saw the EU-US yield spread tightening sharply, but the move would have to extend as far as 1.1500 to start having more profound technical implications. Has the market taken the news too far? That is not for me to judge, as it will take some time to assess the status of the reach of the current outbreak transmissibility, virulence and vaccine-evading characteristics of this new variant, all while real damage is being done as some countries are limiting travel, some merely from the areas where the new variant was discovered in southern Africa, while Japan has announced a full ban on inbound travel starting tomorrow. US President Biden will speak on the new variant later today. What does the best outcome look like? The omicron variant proves very transmissible, but is considerably milder and/or not particularly good at getting around the existing vaccines. Worst case involves some combination of significant vaccine evading characteristics and virulence that is anywhere similar to prior variants. I suspect that without immediate good news (real news surely requires at least a week from here?), the uncertainty could see risk-correlated trades dragged lower before things can improve, but a significant further deterioration in risk assets would likely require actual bad news emerging rather than merely an extension of the uncertainty. Regarding a timeline for learning more about the risks from the omicron variant, it’s best perhaps to admit that I have no clue, but a Reuters article suggests the major vaccine makers may be able to determine efficacy of existing vaccines in about two weeks. Chart: USDJPYWhile other JPY crosses were bigger movers on Friday, the technical development in USDJPY was the most remarkable, as it came off new cycle- and multi-year highs. The damage is significant locally, but would turn more severe if the 112.73 pivot low from October is broken and then goes on to challenge the more structurally significant 111.50-111.00 area. Source: Saxo Group Looking at the week ahead, we would normally be touting the importance of the next set of US survey numbers (November Consumer Confidence and November ISM Manufacturing on Wednesday and ISM Services on Friday) and November jobs and earnings numbers on Friday, but instead, we’ll have to juggle the ongoing news flow and headlines from the new virus variant and may have to file these data away for a later “pent-up” reaction if the omicron variant impact dissipates. Besides the US dollar and the JPY, I will watch all points on the US yield curve and risk sentiment measures closely for how the market is reading the situation. Powell is out today with opening remarks at some event - more interesting is testimony tomorrow, together with Treasury Secretary Yellen, on the policy response to the pandemic, which could see interesting exchanges on inflation, etc.  Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthThe JPY is in a very different place from where it was a week ago or even two trading sessions ago and looks to remain the high-beta currency to whether the virus news drags market sentiment. The SEK reading looks extreme, but difficult to fade in terms of picking levels – downside put spreads in EURSEK the cautious way to proceed for those interested in fading this move now rather than waiting for a reversal pattern to develop. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Talking trends is treacherous business when the market goes into headline reactivity mode, but note that USDJPY and CNHJPY turning negative (if they close lower today) would make it a clean sweep for the JPY across the board. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1300 – Germany Nov. Flash CPI 1330 – Canada Oct. Industrial Product Prices 1530 – US Nov. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 1715 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 2000 – US Fed’s Williams (voter) to speak 2005 – US Fed Chair Powell gives opening remarks at conference 2350 – Japan Oct. Industrial Production US President Biden to speak about omicron variant 0030 – Australia Oct. Building Approvals 0100 – China Nov. Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMI 0200 – Australia RBA’s Debelle to speak

USDCHF to test key support The US dollar stabilized after Jerome Powell hinted at speeding up the taper pace. The break below 0.9270 has put the rally on hold. The support has turned into resistance with the latest rebound fading. But a bullish divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the retracement as the price approaches 0.9140. Buying could be expected in this demand zone around November’s low 0.9100. Sentiment remains upbeat as long as the greenback is above this level. A bounce above 0.9270 may resume the uptrend. XAGUSD remains under pressure Silver struggled after US Treasury yields jumped on Fed’s hawkish tilt. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates a deterioration in the market mood after a drop below the floor at 23.00. An oversold RSI caused a limited rebound which was then capped by 23.30. This was a sign that the bears were still in control of the direction. The psychological level of 22.00 is the next support. Its breach would lead to September’s lows at 21.50, an important level to keep the metal afloat in the medium term. USOIL tests major demand zone WTI crude inches higher as OPEC+ discuss whether to let additional output flow as previously planned. The price is hovering above a major demand zone between 62.00 and 64.00. A bullish RSI divergence indicates that the selling pressure might have eased. A rally above 71.20 could force the short side to cover and bring in more buying momentum. Then 76.00 would be the next hurdle before a full-blown recovery. On the downside, a bearish breakout could trigger a broader sell-off and potentially derail a 19-month long rally.

Bitcoin refrains from making new highs as Tuesday’s gap-fill kills uptrend continuation. Ethereum outpaces its peers by barely hitting new all-time highs. XRP price again looking for direction as investors interest wanes. The Bitcoin bull rally got stopped in its tracks this week after BTC price came under more pressure from the Omicron story, and the resulting market turmoil. Ethereum price, however, came just $16 away from making a new record high, making gains in contrast to the other two majors. XRP saw investors buying the dip, but the uptrend hit a wall and got stopped in its tracks. Bitcoin price on the backfoot after a slowdown that made it lose bullish momentum Bitcoin (BTC) price popped higher at the beginning of the week, shrugging off investors' concerns about the new Covid variant. On Monday, BTC price opened up much higher than where it closed on Sunday, forming a gap in the chart. As a general rule, gaps get filled sooner rather than later, and this was the case on Monday, when bulls saw their early gains lost as BTC price retraced to fill the gap. Bears have seized the opportunity to defend the new monthly pivot for December at $59,586, which coincides with the start of a Fibonacci retracement.. Evidence of this weakening can be found in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), dipping back below 50, showing that bullish demand is starting to wane. BTC/USD daily chart As a result of current market uncertainty, expect potential investors to stay on the sidelines. Although the red descending trend line has been broken a little, it still holds importance and investors will probably only step in following a break back above it, helped, perhaps, by breaking news about vaccine effectiveness against the new strain. Either that or investors will sit on their hands and wait for another bounce off $53.350. Should that level fail to hold, however, and there is more bad news, expect a quick 6% drop towards the $50,000 psychological level and previous historical support. At that level bulls will likely mount a defence against a further downturn. Ethereum price outpaces its peers and could make new highs by the end of this week Ethereum (ETH) price, unlike Bitcoin and XRP, saw bulls run a tight and steep rally from $4,000 towards $4,936 in just five days. That was in a troubled market-facing considerable headwinds. That said, bulls now need to keep a tight stop on current ETH price action in order for a bull trap not to form, after the pull-back on profit-taking that occurred in the wake of price barely hitting an all-time high. ETH quickly reversed from its highs on Wednesday and tested the December pivot at $4,481. That is just $16 above the historical technical level marked up on the chart from November 12. This is a level of great importance and it will be very interesting to see if bulls can maintain price action above it, perhaps, helped by a possible bounce off the red top line that has so far been successfully capping price action to the upside. ETH/USD daily chart That red descending trend line, on the other hand, should support a break below $4,465, but if bulls flee the scene, expect a bull trap to form and price to run down lower. The first support tested in that decline is the historical double top at $4,060, with the monthly S1 support level at $4,000 just below there. The correction could already hold 18% of accrued losses from the highs of Wednesday, which would attract investors interested in the buying opportunity at those levels. Ethereum prices breaks all resistance barriers, with $5,000 within sight XRP price sees bulls rejected at $1.05, pushing price back towards $0.88 Ripple (XRP) price saw sparks fly in a nice uptrend on Wednesday, but then hit a bump in the road after the $1.05 level held firmly, following two failed tests to the upside. The rejection that squeezed prices to the downside on Tuesday, probably washed out quite a lot of investors and technical traders, and caused the lack of momentum and drive in XRP price action to tackle that $1.05 resistance. As the price fades further to the downside today, expect current market uncertainty to weigh further on XRP and see a possible retest of the short-term double bottom at $0.88. XRP/USD daily chart On a retest of that double bottom, a break looks more than likely, as the level holds no historical or other significance. That would hand bears the opportunity to push XRP price down towards either $0.84, for the third test of support at that level, or breakthrough and run down to $0.80, which is a prominent figure and the level of the monthly S1 pivot support level, combined with a historical significant support level at $0.78, originating from June 8. This would provide the perfect zone for a fade-in trade for XRP traders. XRP price appears to develop nasty bear trap

The most obvious first step is: “How much?” Depending on your time horizon and if your approach is purely diversification for your overall portfolio, a percentage of total investment capital needs to be set. This percentage should be higher on a more aggressive wealth preservation strategy and higher expected returns on beating inflation. Another aspect is if silver is traded as the only hedge or alongside other precious metals. Silver already has a leverage factor in relationship to gold. For example, gold’s response to covid was a 37% up move, while silver moved up 80%. This volatility leverage works both ways, increasing the risk for silver if not purchased on low-risk entry points and traded with appropriate money management. We have pointed out various reasons why we find silver an extremely attractive play long term in this year’s chart book releases. Monthly chart (a week ago), Silver in US-Dollar, ready: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of November 26th, 2021. The above chart was posted in our last week’s publication. We wrote:” The monthly chart shows a high likelihood for November’s candle closing as an inverted hammer. Consequently, it provides for silver prices approaching the low end of the last 17-month sideways range near US$22.” Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, set: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We were spot on. The anticipated entry zone has been reached. We added to our physical holdings and shared the trade live in our free Telegram channel. Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart, silver: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We asked, “how much?” and in what diversification, which leaves us with the question of what denomination. The rule of thumb is that the smaller the weight amount is and the more recognizable the brand, the higher the cost. In addition, valuable numismatic collector’s coins have premiums as well. Generally, we find the added cost of brand items (Canadian maple leaf, American eagles, Austrian Philharmonic, and alike) to be of value since it adds to liquidity at a time of sale. While we would stay away from the added cost of numismatic collectible coins, we find there to be value to have a mix of coins and larger bars to arrive at a reasonably low-cost basis with a high degree of liquidity at the time of sale (larger bars are harder to sell than one-ounce coins). The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver, there is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September. As pointed out in the previous chart book, the goal of physical acquisition should not be the ultimate lowest price but availability and execution itself. We make a point of this, especially since we noticed that physical acquisition prices have in percentage retraced much less than the spot price right here, and once the turn is complete, could proportionally faster jolt up. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, go: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. It is essential to have an exit strategy in place before entry. These exit projections are necessary to measure risk/reward-ratios. Moreover, with the entire plan clear, there will be no debate while in the trade. This part of exit psychology is often overlooked, but a low-risk entry point alone does not provide a good strategy. We expect a price advance on silver within the next six to eight quarters to a price target of US$74.40! Significant profits allowing for an outstanding risk/reward-ratio. Ready, set, silver, go: Last week, we anticipated the market’s direction correctly and find ourselves now at the desired low-risk entry zone. With possible additional questions about physical acquisition answered today, we might have reduced doubt. The devil is in the details, and due to the various countries, their taxation law, and the wide variety of official precious metal dealers, we did not dive into the details on where to take possession of your possibly desired purchase.  Nevertheless, our multinational membership in our free Telegram channel might provide helpful information to your specific situation. We hope we have provided enough knowledge to erase doubt. We encourage participation since we see procrastination towards a wealth preservation strategy as the poorest choice in this challenging time for your hard-earned money. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 3rd, 2021|Tags: Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Brazilian market index Bovespa earlier this week came close to the psychologically crucial round level 100,000, having lost around 23% from its peak six months ago. Despite this backdrop, the Brazilian market looks too depressed and is already showing some signs of recovery. Wednesday and Thursday's intraday dips met increasing demand with a noticeable 3.7% gain on Thursday. In addition, the Brazilian index outperforming its EM peers in recent days. The technical picture supports the idea of an imminent reversal to the upside or that it may have even already started yesterday. The RSI on the weekly charts has returned from the oversold territory - a signal of a potential rebound or reversal to growth. The divergence between the RSI and the index confirms the bullish sentiment, reflecting the reduced pressure on the Brazilian stocks. The positive dynamics of foreign indices are also on the buyers' side. Chinese indices have stopped falling since the beginning of the month, bouncing back from multi-month lows. US benchmarks gained support on Thursday, surfacing after briefly dipping below critical levels. Brazilian and many other markets look very attractive for downside buying without a principal reversal in US equities.

Forex 2021-12-03 13:28 4 minutes to read Summary:  A look across FX shows many of the usual suspects weakening with the recent bout of risk aversion, with commodity currencies near important levels versus the US dollar. While the JPY has traded erratically of late on conflicting themes and has not shown its safe haven status of yore, the Swiss franc has, managing to thrive when the focus is on inflation and when it is on weak risk sentiment as the SNB seems to have quietly stepped away from reining in franc strength. FX Trading focus: EURCHF lower has been the Teflon trade The most consistent trending pair in G10 FX of late has been the slide in EURCHF, which has even slipped below the prior six-plus-year low near 1.0500 over the last week. Remarkably, the pair has maintained its consistent ride lower through some remarkable jolts in the background, including the more hawkish shift from the Fed and the omicron news. This may suggest that the move is not being driven by strong speculative flows – which might have shown significant volatility in line with other currency pairs recently, but rather by consistent flows as the Swiss National Bank has apparently stepped away from the assumed stout defense of the 1.0500 level. The last two weeks of sight deposit data have shown no growth, i.e., no signs that the SNB is leaning against this move after doing so the prior four weeks. Also, when inflation fears dominate as they have at times recently, CHF strength is an easy way to avoid importing inflation without rocking the boat with monetary policy signals, while CHF strength is also a natural safe haven play when volatility spikes as it has in recent weeks. The consistent trend may be set to extend here, with parity in EURCHF a natural target. Elsewhere in FX, most of the smaller currencies are lining up on the usual risk-on, risk-off fault-lines, with commodities currencies and Scandies all weak as sentiment has softened again today, although it will be interesting to see if oil prices can make a stand after the reversal of the sharp sell-off yesterday despite nominally bearish news. Big next levels coming into view include 1.3000 in USDCAD and 0.7000 in AUDUSD. On the strong side, the EUR, USD and JPY are jockeying for the upper hand in addition to the strong CHF noted. The reaction function around today’s US jobs report (can a strong average hourly earnings add further energy to Fed upside expectations on top of an already momentous shift, and how much will residual omicron uncertainty hold back that pricing for now?). Chart: EURCHFEURCHF has weakened steadily since mid September in line with the weakening in EURUSD, but far more steadily than the latter, as this trend has managed to sustain through recent volatility elsewhere and shifting focus. The technical situation is without remarkable variation and there are no signs that the SNB is leaning against the move of late. Could the move extend all the way to within reach of parity? Source: Saxo Group Elsewhere, notable BoE hawk Michael Saunders was cautious sounding in comments today on the omicron variant uncertainty, prompting the sharp slide in sterling today. He said that the omicron development is a key consideration for whether to hike in December and sees some advantages in the BoE waiting for omicron data, which may sideline any hike potential at the December 16 meeting, with the market currently putting low odds on a move (difficult to measure – the idea has developed that the BoE will hike 15 bps to 0.25%, with about a 5-7 bps of hiking priced). Saunders still favors policy tightening soon and said today that the rate rise would be limited if the BoE gets going soon. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthThe impressive CHF rising nearly all the way to the top of the table here, as the left/right split of the G10 currencies is nearly perfect, with all of the five “smalls” in the red, most of them deeply so. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Plenty of bright orange readings in the daily ATR shadings – these indicate very significant volatility relative to the last 1000 trading days (top 10% ranking), , while it is interesting to note something like the EURUSD supermajor still trading with still quite low intraday volatility. AUDNZD is trying to flip back to negative, while USDCHF and USDJPY have yet to follow through lower after their recent flips to the negative in the “trend” reading. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1300 – ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane to speak 1330 – US Nov. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 1330 – US Nov. Average Hourly Earnings 1330 – US Nov. Unemployment Rate 1330 – Canada Nov. Net Change in Employment 1330 – Canada Nov. Unemployment Rate 1415 – US Fed’s Bullard (voter in 2022) to speak 1500 – US Nov. ISM Services  1500 – US Nov. Factory Orders

Equities 2021-12-03 14:15 7 minutes to readSummary:  As we have written about in several equity notes, the bubble stocks segment has been under enormous pressure this year and in recent weeks the destruction in market value has intensified at a blistering pace. The tailwind from the pandemic that has benefitted many technology companies is easing faster than expected and the worsening inflation outlook is making many growth investors wary of the future direction for interest rates which play an important role in equity valuations of growth stocks. We touch on DocuSign and its Q4 revenue miss last night which caused a 30% plunge in its shares underscoring the fragility in growth stocks with high expectations.The fallout in bubble stocks show importance of balanceIn yesterday’s equity note, we discussed bubble stocks and how this group of stocks have been under pressure since February as the pandemic tailwind on growth has eased and the inflation outlook has worsened causing markets to readjust their interest rate outlook. Low interest rates have been the key driver of excessive valuations in this bubble segment and now as the tide is turning investors are readjusting their exposure. As we move into 2022, we will reiterate our view on equities that we like semiconductors, commodity sector, logistics, cyber security, mega caps, financial trading companies (a play on interest rates and volatility), and battery, which most of them are plays on the physical world making a comeback against the digital world. In a rising inflationary environment our preferred themes can make growth portfolio with exposure to bubble stocks more balanced in terms of risk.Momentum crash and Danish equities under pressureLike our bubble basket, Morgan Stanley has their own most crowded stocks basket which has just dropped more than 10% relative to the S&P 500, the most on record since 2013 underscoring the massive destruction that is currently taking place. While Tracy Alloway from Bloomberg calls it a new “quant crisis”, our view is that it is more a classic momentum crash as momentum strategies sitting on fat gains over the past 18 months are drastically reducing positions. When we reach the bottom is very uncertain but if we are in a momentum crash then it is the illiquidity that drives the explosive price action.Source: TwitterIn our recent string of equity notes on interest rate sensitivity and bubble stocks we also mentioned Danish equities as being interest rate sensitive together with other equity markets such as the Netherlands, Switzerland, United States, and India. But given the recent weeks price action it seems there is an overlap to the bubble stocks selloff suggesting the readjustments in equities are more profound. Source: Saxo GroupDocuSign shares plunging 30% show fragility for growth stocksAnother sign of the stress in the bubble stocks segment of the equity market is the 30% plunge in DocuSign, the leader in electronic signature, following a Q4 (ending 31 January 2022) revenue guidance missing estimates; the revenue guidance was $557-563mn vs est. $574mn. The price reaction shows how fragile these stocks are to a small change in revenue expectations and clearly the risks associated with bubble stocks. We should point out, that DocuSign does not fit all criteria for being added to our bubble stocks basket because the 12-month forward earnings expectations are positive whereas we require those to be negative to be called a bubble stock. The revenue miss has caused sell-side analysts to drastically cut the median price target to $275 from around previously $330 against a close of $164 in extended trading yesterday.Source: BloombergSource: Saxo Group

  Entry… triggered! The price rallies to the Moon, but you don’t want to cash out “just yet” - am I right? So, let’s see how to prevent hard landing. There are obviously several methods to assess risk and thus to manage it, depending on one’s risk appetite or what is also more commonly known as risk profile. One method I use on swing (longer-term) trades is to manually lift my stop once – at least – 50% of the first target has been reached on a swing trade. I provide such trades on Sunshine Profits based on the projections I draw. Let’s take a practical case: in my last trade position on WTI crude oil provided on Nov-30, the market found a floor around $66. Then after being pushed up by the bulls, it rebounded onto that support level ($65.70-66.21), and rallied up to $69.49. So, if we take our reference entry in the middle of the yellow band at $66, the market moved up exactly 70% of the total distance to the target 1. At this point, to avoid giving profits away, an option would be to lift the stop to net breakeven ($66 + commissions/fees) so that the risk for that trade could get offset once 50% of the distance to the target 1 is passed. Following that, if, for example, the market pursues its rally further – let’s say up to 60% – then the stop will be lifted to net breakeven + 10% of the distance to the target 1. In our case the market rallied up to 70% of the distance to the target 1, so the stop should be lifted to net breakeven + 20% of the distance to the target 1. From my experience, this may represent a good way to manually trail your stop. Of course, there are many different methods to do so, but I haven’t heard of many investors or traders mentioning that one, therefore I wanted to present it here. The following chart is the one I posted in my trade review published on Wednesday, the 1st of December: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart from Dec-1) To better visualize the price action that occurred, we zoomed into the 4-hour chart: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart from Dec-1) As you can see, the level provided was optimum given its function to act as a floor for rebounding prices. Then, the market was up to 70% of the total distance to reach the target 1, and finally reverted back down to the stop level. Now, this is today’s chart: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart) Again, a zoom into the 4H chart lets us see more details of the price action that occurred: WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart) In summary, using such a method of risk management to keep intermediate profits before the trade reverts strongly to the downside might be a good idea, particularly during high volatility periods. Are you interested in seeing this strategy in action? Make sure to check my Oil Trading Alerts! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  The S&P 500 bounced from the 4,500 level on Thursday, as it retraced most of its Wednesday’s sell-off. Was it a reversal or just another upward correction? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The broad stock market index gained 1.42% on Thursday after opening slightly lower and bouncing from the new local low of 4,504.73. The index fell the lowest since the October 19 and it went below its early September local high of around 4,546. Overall, it lost 5.04% from the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. But Thursday’s trading session was bullish and stocks were gaining. Was it an upward reversal? This morning stocks are expected to open 0.3% higher after the mixed monthly jobs data release. For now, it looks like a correction within a downtrend. We may see a short-term consolidation following the recent declines. The nearest important support level is now at 4,500. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,580-4,600, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 remains below its short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Close to the 16,000 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index remains relatively stronger than the broad stock market, as it is still trading above the early September local highs of around 15,700. However, the technology index gained just 0.7% yesterday, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Remains Volatile After Reaching New Record High Let’s take a look at biggest stock in the S&P 500 index: AAPL. Apple accelerated its uptrend once again and on Wednesday it reached the new record high of $170.30. Apple’s market cap reached almost 2.8 trillion dollars! But on Thursday, the stock was 7.3% below its Wednesday’s high, before bouncing back above the $160 level. So the stock priceremains very volatile and we may see a medium-term topping pattern. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.3% higher this morning after the mixed monthly jobs data release. We may see a consolidation and some more volatility following the recent declines. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 slightly extended its short-term downtrend yesterday before bouncing from the 4,500 level. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting an over 5% correction. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Omicron: In today’s weekly I’ll be dedicating some digital ink for the latest information on the new variant omicron. Ok so what are the major points of importance. New admissions to hospitals in Gauteng increased by 144% last week (hospitalisations lag cases by around 1-3 weeks). So far the early data shows the majority of these hospitalisations are from the unvaccinated (if that trend remains that’s positive). However, a recent study released from South Africa indicates reinfection risk is 3 times higher than previous variants. In terms of the deadliness of this variant, the early data looks good with Australia’s Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly stating that of the 300 cases recorded worldwide all were very mild or had no symptoms at all. However, the sample size is too small so we can’t draw solid conclusions at this stage. The major vaccine makers have offered timelines of two to six weeks for assessing the vaccine escape properties of omicron via in-vitro lab tests. Interestingly, Moderna is less optimistic than Pfizer about expecting current vaccines needing to be tweaked to fend off the omicron variant. Volatility will remain high as the market remains on tenterhooks as new information drips through. Dollar Index (DXY): The greenback is flat on the week, with many quite perplexed by the lack of gains (particularly against the euro) given the hawkish Fed pivot and risk sentiment remaining on edge. The dollar coming in flat is a combination of gains against high-beta cyclical companies offset by losses against traditional safe haven currencies. Just take a look at the charts of USDJPY and AUDUSD. In terms of the euro, I’ll chat more about that below in the EURUSD paragraph. The big domestic news for the dollar this week was Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric. The word transitory is to be retired as he admits the threat of persistently higher inflation has grown. On the QE purchases side of things, he remains open to it being wrapped up earlier than originally expected with a discussion on a faster pace taking place in 2 weeks at their December meeting. He elucidated his thoughts on the employment side of their mandate, stating that a great labour market requires a protracted expansion and in order to achieve this price stability has to occur. I see this as inflation now taking primacy over employment goals, indicating a shift in the Fed’s thinking with regards to inflationary pressures. The hawkish commentary from FOMC members this week such as Daly, Quarles, Barkin and Bostic would certainly suggest this is the case. STIRs are showing rate lift-off for practically June 2022 (96%) and over 2.5 hikes through December 2022. All attention now falls to the Non-Farm Payrolls number out today. The preliminary indicator such as ISM manufacturing index, ADP and jobless claims all pointing towards decent numbers from the jobs report today disappointed as NFP numbers missed expectations by a significant amount. Price moves have been muted as traders may be reluctant to place any fresh positions on and chase with the risk of adverse news over the weekend regarding omicron. Bottom line - traders should expect cross-asset volatility to remain higher over December. Next week we’ll receive November US inflation data, which is expected to remain elevated. DXY has regained the upper trend line of its ascending channel, putting some distance between price and its moving averages. The 21-day EMA continues to provide some dynamic support to price dips. The RSI has held above the key 55 level of support. Targets wise keep an eye out on the 96.5 on the upside and to the downside the 21-day EMA and former support around 95.5. EURUSD: So why did EURUSD strengthen on the market sell-off due to omicron on Friday and has remained fairly defensive throughout this week? It’s certainly not because the euro is a safe-haven currency in times of risk aversion. This price action has more to do with its use as a funding currency. Traders borrow euros to search for higher yield globally which is a decent strategy when risk conditions are favourable, however, when that risk dial flips in other direction we see the typical carry trade unwind, leading to flows back into the euro. Additionally, because expectations for rate hikes with regards to the eurozone are already significantly low, it’s at much less risk of a dovish repricing working favourably in terms of spread differentials with the dollar. Political pressure is rising on the ECB to act, particularly from Germany. A Reuters article out mid-week pointed towards some members wanting to rather hold off declaring their asset purchase intentions at this December meeting due to uncertainty caused by omicron. However, the ECB's Muller stated that he doesn’t think omicron is a reason to shift the scheduled end date for PEPP. Following this line of thought just today Madame Lagarde expressed that she feels certain that PEPP will cease in March as planned, saying markets require clarity in December. On the data front we had better than expected inflation prints from Germany (5.2% YoY) and the eurozone (4.9% YoY). It’s quiet in terms of economic data next week with the ZEW survey out as we lead up to a crucial ECB meeting in two weeks. EURUSD is drifting lower from its 21-day EMA. The RSI has stalled around the 40 level. Looking at the technicals clearly EURUSD is in a downtrend. Rallies in my opinion should be short lived with sellers coming in. Key levels to monitor in both directions are 1.135 (21-day EMA) and on the downside 1.12. GBPUSD: With a vacuum of economic data for the UK, the words of central bankers took centre stage. Bailey didn’t provide much meat at his speech this Wednesday. However, Saunders (leans hawkish) who spoke today has caused a repricing lower in the probability of a 15bps rate hike come December (only an additional 4bps now from around 8bps pre-speech). He expressed the need for potentially taking a patient approach with the uncertainty from omicron. Cable is lower as a result. On the virus front, the UK regulator has given the green light for booster doses to be offered to all adults. Additionally, the government has signed a contract for 114 million vaccine doses from Pfizer and Moderna, including access to modified vaccines if they're needed to tackle omicron and other future variants of concern. On the political front, domestically the Tories held the seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup, however, with a reduced majority. On Brexit, it’s been quiet of late with some optimism around the granting of additional fish licences to French fisherman in Guernsey, Jersey is the more important zone though prone to flare ups in tension. However, temperatures remain high between France and the UK on issues related to immigration. Next week sees UK October GDP data released. EURGBP has been moving higher on the back of dovish commentary (given he’s a hawk) from Saunders as well as benefiting from any souring in risk-sentiment. The 200-day SMA isn’t far aware, which has previously capped price gains. Cable continues to -plumb fresh YTD lows and is now nearing 1.32. The RSI is near to oversold territory but with some room remaining to eke out further losses. Moving averages are all pointing downwards. Targets wise, on the upside the 1.335 and above there former support around 1.34 (21-day EMA too). USDJPY: This pair continues to trade on US 10-year yield moves and now it’s status as a safe-haven currency has kicked back in. Early Friday morning has seen a bid coming in, which could be some pre NFP positioning on expectations of a move higher in the back end of the US yield curve. Put EURJPY on your radar, price is at a key support level around 128. USDJPY is finding support around its 50-day SMA, 113 round number and the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Price is trying to overcome resistance from the 50-day SMA. The former range support is providing some resistance around 113.5. The RSI is trying to get back into its range support around 46. Targets wise on the upside, 114 will be important and on the downside 112.5 (this week's lows). Gold: Gold has slipped below the $1775 support level as the hawkish fed leads to higher short term rates, kryptonite for the shiny yellow metal. Fears over inflation have failed to help gold stay propped up as well as risk-off fears from omicron. Inflation data out from the US next week will be a risk event for gold traders as well as the Fed meeting the following week. Today’s NFP hasn’t ignited much excitement in gold markets. Gold is trying to reclaim the $1775 support level. The 50-day SMA has made a very minor cross above the 200-day SMA. The 21-day EMA has been capping further gains. The RSI is in no man's land around 38. Targets wise, if $1775 is cleared then $1800 opens up (moving averages just below there). On the downside, $1750 comes into view. Oil: Crude fell sharply into a bear market this week as risk-off, Fed tightening, fears over further lockdowns and travel bans from the new omicron variant led to a repricing on the demand side of the equation. OPEC+ the main event for crude traders this week, decided to stick to their scheduled 400k bpd for January, but caveated this with the meeting remaining in “session”, meaning changes to the supply side could be made before their 4 January meeting if omicron causes a further deterioration. This led to yo-yo style price behaviour. Until there is more clarity regarding omicron, I expect oil’s price to remain choppy without a solid price trend. Backwardation spreads have narrowed, indicating a more balanced supply and demand equation. Iranian Nuclear Negotiations began the week positively, but sentiment turned pessimistic towards the end of this week, providing further short-term bullish tailwinds to crude’s price. JPM has some very bullish forecasts with the bank expecting crude to hit $150 by 2023. Oil is having a run at its 200-day SMA. The RSI has moved out of overbought territory and is a fair distance below its 50-day SMA (some mean reversion). Right now price will remain choppy within a range as omicron news flow prevents a trend from forming. Targets wise, on the upside the 200-day SMA and $73.50 dollar mark will be key. On the downside $68 support is important.

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 629th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 04 December 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com In completing its 48th trading week of 2021, Gold settled yesterday (Friday) at 1784. 'Twas the eighth week this year that Gold has settled in the 1780s (the first occurrence being on 19 February). Indeed, Gold's median weekly settle price year-to-date is 1788. Yet as anybody engaged in the Gold Story knows, Gold first traded in the 1780s a decade ago on 09 August 2011, the U.S "M2" money supply that day at $9.5 trillion; (today 'tis $21.5 trillion). So to reprise that from the "You Cannot Be Wrong Dept.": should anyone ask you "off the cuff" what is the price of Gold, your instantaneous response of "1780" shall (so 'twould seem for the foreseeable future) not only be correct, but enhance your dazzling intellectual image. To reprise as well "The M Word" crowd, clearly their parking place of preference is Gold's 1780s. Of the 233 trading days year to date, 27 of Gold's closures exceeding 1800 have -- within the five ensuing trading days -- found price settle in the 1780s, or lower. "1800? SELL!" Sheesh... Gold's 1780s are driving us crazy! Regardless, Gold -- and moreover Silver -- are doing what markets do when their technicals turn negative: price goes down. Per our Market Magnets page, Gold from 1861 on 18 November found price then pierce down through its Magnet: "SELL!" From our Market Trends page, Gold from 1847 on 19 November found the "Baby Blues" of trend consistency begin to plummet: "SELL!" From our Market Values page, Gold from 1805 on 22 November crossed below its smooth valuation line: "SELL!" More mainstream technical signals have since followed to "SELL!" And recall -- just prior to it all in our anticipating near-term selling -- we nonetheless deemed the 1800s as "safe": "WRONG!" Having thus now driven you crazy, we obviously deem holding and buying Gold as "RIGHT!" especially as the stock market -- be this another false signal or otherwise -- finds the S&P 500 doing its dance of a snake in death throes. To be sure we've seen such before, only to see the Index magically survive, indeed thrive. You veteran readers of The Gold Update may recall some six years ago (on 23 January 2016) our characterizing the S&P as being in such "death throes", the ensuing three weeks then finding the Index fall 5% from a "live" price/earnings ratio of 43x; (today 'tis 47x). "But don't forget it's now time for the Santa Claus Rally, mmb..." Yet another conventional wisdom notion there, Squire, via your appreciated "leading comment". Irrespective of what "everybody says" and expects, Santa Claus doesn't always come to Wall Street. Since 1980, as measured yearly from 01-to-24 December, Santa has skipped gifting the stock market 11 times. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. For those of you scoring at home, the S&P recorded net losses across that festive stint in '80, '81, '83, '86, '96, '97, '00, '02, '08, '15 and '18, the latter being a 409-point (-14.8%) loss. (Advice to the stocking stuffer: buy coal ... nudge-nudge, wink-wink, elbow-elbow). Moreover, have you been monitoring the major market dislocations of late? Talk about the maligning of conventional wisdom! In yesterday's session, the €uro, Swiss Franc, ¥en -- and yes the Dollar Index too -- all closed higher. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. Still, even as there is Dollar demand given the prospect of it paying a positive interest rate, the yield on the U.S. Treasury Bond continues to fall: 'twas 2.177% on 08 October, but is down now to 1.678%. In fact across our BEGOS Markets (Bond, Euro/Swiss, Gold/Silver/Copper, Oil, S&P 500), the price of the Bond is the only component with a positive 21-day linear regression trend. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. And then there's Oil: by our Market Values page, Black Gold settled yesterday 15 points below its smooth valuation line (66.22 vs. 81.51), even as Oil Inventories fell. "WHAT?" 'Tis true, (albeit OPEC is gonna keep a-pumpin'). Still, by that measure, Oil's price is massively, -- indeed deflationarily -- dislocated near-term from value. Too as noted, the Price of the S&P continues to be ridicously dislocated from the support of its Earnings; but if you get your dumbed-down P/E of 28.1x from the media, when 'tis honestly 47.4x, go ahead and say it: "WHAT?" 'Tis true. 'Course, the ongoing and most overwhelming dislocation is the price of Gold vis-à-vis our Scoreboard Dollar-debasement valuation (1784 vs. 4008). Say no more, Igor. A December to remember? Early on, 'tis the season to be dislocated. To which naturally (as subtly stated) we find Gold located in the 1780s. Why expect it to be anywhere else? So spot-on is Gold in the 1780s that per the following graphic of weekly price, the rightmost close is right on the dashed regression trendline. So are the 1780s driving you crazy, too? At least Gold's parabolic trend still is Long, although the aforementioned negative technicals have kept on the lid, (to say nothing of "The M Word" crowd?). Note as well the 79.1x reading of the Gold/Silver, ratio, essentially at a two-month high, the white metal having been terribly on the skids of late: Anything but skidding these last couple of months has been our Economic Barometer, it now having reached its highest oscillative level in better than three years. Whilst nominally last week's 13 incoming metrics were quite mixed, their overall effect net of prior period revisions and consensus expectations was to launch the Baro higher still as we here see: Amongst the improvers were November's Unemployment Rate and Average Workweek, plus both the Manufacturing and Services readings from the Institute for Supply Management, along with October's Construction Spending, Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales. However: November's ADP Employment data, Labor's Non-farm Payrolls and Hourly Earnings, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index and the Conference Board's read on Consumer Confidence were all weaker. Therein, too, is the red line of the S&P 500, its aforementioned snaky death throes throwing the Index all over the place this past week. The S&P's intra-day runs were as follows: Mon +48, Tue -86, Wed -143, Thu +91, Fri -113. Want some perspective for that? The entire trading range of the S&P 500 for the year 2004 was less than this past Wednesday's session alone. "WHAT?" 'Tis true. 'Course, back in 2004, 'twas a greater percentage range, but at least the average P/E for that year was a "reasonable" (vs. today) 26.4x. Thus again is begged the question: "Has the S&P crashed yet?" Obviously not, but we're feelin' very leery 'bout January. "As goes January..."(although you regular readers know we've demonstrably debunked that conventional notion as well). BUT... As for the Federal Reserve's removing of the punch bowl, Atlanta FedPrez Raphael "Ready to Raise" Bostic again says its time to step up the Taper of Paper Caper, whilst FedGov Randal "Have No" Quarles says 'tis time for The Bank to prepare to raise. And as noted in last week's missive: were it not for the "Oh my! Omicron!" scare, we could well see a FedFunds rate hike in the FOMC's 26 January Policy Statement. So just keep wearing your masque such that everything's great, and in turn let the Fed increase its rate! Here's another positive from the "Good Is Bad Dept.": the StateSide government shan't run out of money this time 'round until 18 February. Low on dough? To Congress you go! Just ask TreaSec Yellen, for she's in the know! Ho-ho-ho... Either way, west of The Pond "inflation" remains the watchword -- or if you prefer the real word -- as the word "transitory" is being transited away. East of The Pond, the EuroZone (just 23 years young) sees its inflation level hitting record high levels; but should it be peaking, 'tis thought any European Central Bank rate rise shan't next year materialize. And lacking any upside mobility of late (duh) are our precious metals, the following two-panel graphic bearing along as butt ugly. On the left we've Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date, their cascading "Baby Blues" reinforcing price's downtrend, (although price never really departs the 1780s, right?). On the right similarly is the same story for Sister Silver, who clearly is suffering the ravages of DDS ("Dangerfield Disrespect Syndrome"), by which she's none too happy. For from the precious metals' respective highs of just three weeks back, Gold has dropped as much as -5.8% ... but Silver more than double that at -12.6%! "WHAT?" 'Tis true: Meanwhile, still dwellers in their Profile cellars are Gold (below left) and Silver (below right). Here is the entirety of their trading across the last two weeks, the high volume price apices as labeled. And that is a lot of overhead work to do: So after all of that, are you ready to tune out? You can't be so blamed. Gold's 1780s have got us all crazy! Puts us in mind of that iconic glamour rock hit by Sparks from back in '83 -- supportive of the film by the same name -- "Get Crazy"Tune it in on your radio dial: sure to bring a you a Golden Smile! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com

USDCHF struggles to bounce The US dollar softened after November’s nonfarm payrolls missed the mark. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at 0.9270, a former support that had turned into a resistance. The bullish RSI divergence suggests a slowdown in the sell-off though there is no confirmation yet for a sustainable bounce. 0.9120 is a key demand area on the daily timeframe and a bearish breakout would invalidate the November rebound. Buyers may switch sides as sentiment further deteriorates, exacerbating volatility to the downside. CADJPY breaks higher The Canadian dollar surged after November’s unemployment rate fell to 6%. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart still indicates a pessimistic mood. An oversold RSI on the hourly chart caused a limited bounce as short-term traders took profit. Sellers are eager to fade rebounds with the latest being at 89.20. 87.20 at the base of the October rally would be the next support. A deeper correction may send the loonie to 85.90. The bulls will need to lift said resistance before they could initiate a reversal. UK 100 attempts to rebound The FTSE 100 recouped some losses bolstered by a weaker US jobs report. The index saw buying interest over the psychological level of 7000 which sits in the daily demand zone. The RSI’s double-dip in the oversold area has attracted a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd in this congestion area. A close above the immediate resistance at 7150 is an encouraging sign of a bullish attempt. 7310 is a major hurdle ahead, its breach could short circuit the correction. 7060 is the closest support in case of weakness in the rebound.

S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity to take prices higher in spite of the sharp medim-term deterioration essentially since the taper announcement. It‘s the Fed and not Omicron as I told you on Wednesday, but the corona uncertainty is reflected in more downgrades of real economy growth. There are however conflicting indicators that make me think we‘re still midway in the S&P 500 topping process and in for a rough Dec (no Santa Claus rally) at the same time, and these indicators feature still robust manufacturing and APT (hazmat manufacturer) turning noticeably down.Still, it‘s all eyes on the Fed, and its accelerated tapering intentions (to be discussed at their next meeting) as they finally admitted to seeing the light of inflation not being transitory. The ever more compressing yield curve is arguably the biggest watchout and danger to inflation and commodity trades – one that would put question mark to the point of answering in the negative whether we are really midway in the topping process. Another indicator I would prefer turning up, would be the advance-decline line of broader indices such as Russell 3000. And of course, HYG erasing a good deal of its prior sharp decline, which I had been talking often last week – until that happens, we‘re in danger of things turning ugly and fast, and not only for stocks should 4530s decisively give.In spite of decreasing yields, the dollar continues acting on the bullish argument introduced 2 weeks ago. Seeing antidollar plays struggle (part of which is the function of inflation expectations drifting lower on the Fed‘s turn – let‘s see when the central bank breaks something, which is a story for another day), is truly a warning of downside risks having sharply increased since Thanksgiving. Not only for stocks, where we might not be making THE correction‘s low, but also for commodities, cryptos and precious metals. In a series of two tweets yesterday, the warning is in regardless of a smooth Monday ahead.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bears are looking a bit tired here, and the room for an upswing is getting evident. The surge late on Friday concerned both tech and value, thankfully – overall, the market breadth isn‘t though much encouraging.Credit MarketsHYG did successfully defend gained ground, and strength appears very slowly returning – the gains have to continue to sound the all clear, for considerably longer. As said on Friday, the sharpest rallies happen in bear markets, so all eyes on HYG proving us either way.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are looking fairly stable at the moment – not ready to decline, and still taking time to rebound. The accelerated taper idea didn‘t take them to the cleaners – the real fireworks though still have to wait till the Fed gets really close to choking off growth.Crude OilCrude oil could keep the intraday gains, but appears base building here – similarly to natgas, this is a medium-term buying opportunity as prices would inevitably recover.CopperCopper prices reflect the combined Fed and (to a lesser degree) Omicron uncertainty – it‘s casting a verdict about upcoming real economy growth, and the red metal is still looking undecided, and merely gently leaning towards the bulls.Bitcoin and EthereumThe bearish ambush of Bitcoin and Ethereum was reserved for the weekend, and the bleeding hasn‘t stopped so far.SummaryS&P 500 looks to have reached the low, but the jury remains out as to whether that‘s THE low. I highly recommend reading today‘s analysis for it lays out the key metrics to watch in its opening part. The nearest days and weeks will be of crucial importance in determining whether the worst in the stock market and commodities correction is behind us, or whether we still have some more to go.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The S&P 500 index broke slightly below the 4,500 mark on Friday, but it bounced from that support level again. Is this a bottoming pattern? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The broad stock market index lost 0.84% on Friday following Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. On Friday the index fell the lowest since the October 19 and it went below its early September local high of around 4,546 again. Overall, it lost 5.24% from the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. Stocks fluctuate since last week’s Wednesday, so is this a bottoming pattern? For now, it looks like a flat correction or a consolidation within a downtrend. This morning the broad stock market is expected to open 0.4% higher and we may see some more short-term consolidation following the recent declines. The nearest important support level is still at 4,500. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,580-4,600, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 remains below its short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Broke Below the 16,000 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index remained relatively stronger than the broad stock market recently but on Friday it broke below the support level of 16,000 and it was relatively weaker than the S&P 500 index that day. The tech stocks’ gauge fell below the early September local highs, as we can see on the daily chart: Conclusion The S&P 500 index slightly extended its downtrend on Friday and it was 5.24% below the November 22 record high. So it is still just a downward correction and not a new bear market. But we may see some more downside. For now, it looks like a consolidation within a downtrend, as there have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 slightly extended its short-term downtrend on Friday. A speculative short position is still justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting an over 5% correction. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  The dollar looks poised for another rally, to gold’s dismay. So, what’s the price target for the greenback over the winter months? While the consensus across the financial markets (especially at the beginning of the year) was that the U.S. dollar was destined for devaluation, I warned that the greenback would rise from the ashes. And with gold, silver, and mining stocks often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, the latter’s ascent helped make the precious metals one of the worst-performing asset classes in 2021. Moreover, after more dollar doubters emerged in October – and the precious metals rallied hard – the USD Index eventually cut through 94, 95, and then 96 like a knife through butter. And with the precious metals reversing sharply once again, I expect another rally to push the USD Index to ~98 over the medium term. Perhaps quite soon. And the implications for the precious metals sector, are bearish. On top of that, while overbought conditions elicited a short-term pullback, end-of-month turnarounds and / or rallies are commonplace for the greenback. For context, I warned that a consolidation was likely overdue by highlighting the USD Index’s overbought RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings with the red arrows above. Conversely, the blue vertical dashed lines above demonstrate how the USD Index often bottoms near the end of each month, and rallies often follow. And while the current consolidation may need some more time to run its course, higher highs should materialize over the medium term. To explain, after the USD Index recorded sharp rallies in June and July, consolidation phases unfolded before the uptrends continued. And while the secondary uprisings occurred at more moderate paces, the USD Index still managed to make new highs. As a result, ~98 should materialize during the winter months. Furthermore, if the forecast proves prescient, the USD Index’s strength will likely usher gold back to its previous 2021 lows. Adding to our confidence (don’t get me wrong, there are no certainties in any market; it’s just that the bullish narrative for the USDX is even more bullish in my view), the USD Index often sizzles in the summer sun and major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year. Summertime spikes have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record and in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018 a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights (which is exactly what’s happened this time around). Furthermore, profound rallies (marked by the red vertical dashed lines below) followed in 2008, 2011 and 2014. With the current situation mirroring the latter, a small consolidation on the long-term chart is exactly what occurred before the USD Index surged in 2014. Likewise, the USD Index recently bottomed near its 50-week moving average; an identical development occurred in 2014. More importantly, though, with bottoms in the precious metals market often occurring when gold trades in unison with the USD Index (after ceasing to respond to the USD’s rallies with declines), we’re still far away from that milestone in terms of both price and duration. Again, the recent move higher in the USD Index doesn’t necessarily apply in the case of the above rule, as it was not the strength of the USD but weakness in the euro that has driven it. Likewise, with the USD Index now approaching its long-term rising support line (which is now resistance), a rally above the upward sloping black line below would invalidate the prior breakdown and support a move back above 100. Also, please note that the recent medium-term rally has been calmer than any major upswing witnessed over the last 20 years, where the USD Index’s RSI has hit 70. I marked the recent rally in the RSI with an orange rectangle and I did the same with the second-least and third-least volatile of the medium-term upswings. The sharp rallies in 2008 and 2014 were of much larger magnitudes. And in those historical analogies, the USD Index continued its surge for some time without suffering any material corrections. As a result, the short-term outlook is more of a coin flip. However, the medium-term outlook remains profoundly bullish, and gold, silver, and mining stocks may resent the USD Index’s forthcoming uprising. Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or the ones of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. And with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. And while very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon), mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks have reversed sharply in recent weeks. And though the trio tried to ignore the USD Index’s recent uprising, I wrote on Jul. 23 that the time-tested relationship of ‘U.S. dollar up, PMs down’ will likely be a major storyline during the Autumn months. To that point, with the theme likely to continue over the medium term, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks over the next few months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

GBPUSD attempts to rebound The sterling consolidates as BOE officials stress due to inflationary pressure from a tight labor market. So far, rebounds have been an opportunity for trend followers to sell into strength. The pound is testing last December’s demand zone around 1.3200. An oversold RSI may help lift bids momentarily as sellers take profit. 1.3300 is the immediate resistance. Then the bulls will need to clear the origin of the latest sell-off at 1.3370 to attract more buying interest. On the downside, a breakout would send the price to 1.3100. NZDUSD sticks to downtrend The US dollar edged higher thanks to a rally in Treasury yields. Increasing divergence between the 20 and 30-day moving averages suggests a deterioration in market sentiment. On the hourly chart, a short-lived rebound has struggled to stay above 0.6780. And that is a sign that the bears are still in control of the direction. 0.6700 is the next support. Its breach would extend the sell-off to November 2020’s lows near 0.6600. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a limited rebound with 0.6810 as the closest resistance. US 30 breaks higher The Dow Jones recoups losses as the omicron variant may have less impact than feared. The index bounced off last October’s lows around 34000. An oversold RSI in this demand zone has attracted a crowd to buy the dips. A break above 34950 and then 35300 would prompt short-term sellers to cover, paving the way for a sustainable rally. 35950 would be a key hurdle and its breach may turn the cautious mood around and resume the bullish trend. 34700 is the first support when the bulls try to catch their breath.

Like a whale diving deep to gorge on krill to emerge even more empowered shortly after. When catching these cycles right, bitcoin is ever rewarding. BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, up and up and up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 7th, 2021. Typically, fortunes are slowly acquired and quickly destroyed, not so with bitcoin. Bitcoin’s up moves can be as dramatic as their declines. In addition, bitcoin seems bulletproof to fundamental attacks. With China’s ban on mining, its share of the global hash rate sank from 75% held in September 2019 to zero by now. Miners migrated to the US and had its 2019 4% hash rate rise to 35%. It is essential to remind oneself of facts like these, when emotions overcome one with doubt and confidence falters at these steep declines in bitcoin. At times when opportunity knocks and self-confidence is critical for accurate trade execution. The monthly chart above shows the roller coaster moves that can make even the stern trader doubtful, yet bitcoin rose closer to the sun after each cloud. We find six figure bitcoin prices to be likely within the next few months, as indicated in the very right green up arrow in the chart. Gold in Bitcoin, Daily Chart, measuring true value: Gold in Bitcoin, daily chart as of December 7th, 2021. Where we see bitcoin going from strength to strength, as well, is the relatively rare occurrence of fiat currencies being endangered by inflation to the level that we are right now. Fortunes can change hands quickly. Typically, procrastination is fueled by the belief of a rise in the cost of things. In reality, currency is less valuable. We, as such, encourage you not to measure everything in your country’s currency. We find measurements towards a gold price or a bitcoin price a more realistic view of price/value changes. The chart above shows how the relationship between gold and the bitcoin price changed over the short term, with bitcoins’ recent sharp decline.   BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, in the not to distant future: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 7th, 2021. A six-sigma event risk in the overall market environment is always present. Such a market crash would temporarily drag bitcoin to lower prices and needs to be reflected in your money management. Other than that, we see prices right here as a good starting zone for the next push-up which should exceed all-time highs in the not-too-distant future, as portrayed in the above chart. Bitcoin, going from strength to strength: No matter what we tell ourselves, when prices decline, we feel fearful. It is always hard to step into such selling pressure for a low-risk entry spot based on the action/ reaction principle to be part of the next cycle up.  Moreover, practice and planning are required to be part of these upswings and to ride the wave. Our quad strategy aims to reduce initial risk quickly after an entry has been made. Last Friday’s entries near the lows of the day allowed for a more than ten percent profit-taking on half of the position size, a target we call “financing.” Unheard of in any other liquid, low-risk market. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 7th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

BABA stock rallies over 10% on Monday in broad rally. Chinese names have suffered as DIDI delisting hits sentiment. BABA and others rally on Monday as China cuts commercial bank reserve requirements. Chinese stocks are nothing if not volatile, and this continued on Monday with huge rallies in most names. The reason was that China cut the reserve requirement for commercial banks in an effort to try and pump liquidity into the system. This can be taken two ways, and investors chose to see the positives. China is struggling to contain problems in the banking and property sectors from spreading, and the travails of Evergrande Group have been well documented. Evergrande was due to pay $82.5 million on Monday, but we are still in the dark on whether it met this latest payment or not. Bloomberg is reporting that another Chinese developer, Kaisa Group Holdings, received a forbearance proposal from bondholders on Tuesday. A forbearance proposal would be a form of an agreed delay or reduction in repayments. If agreed by both bondholders and the company, it averts a formal debt default. BABA chart, 15-minute Alibaba (BABA) stock news BABA stock has been under pressure throughout 2021 as a wave of negative sentiment hit Chinese equities and in particular Chinese tech names. This was kickstarted by BABA itself as it had to shelve the proposed spin-off IPO of ANT Group late in 2020. China then began taking a more cautious approach to its tech sector as worries over the huge amounts of data generated by them escalated. Didi Group (DIDI) did manage to get its IPO off the ground in New York but now plans to delist to Hong Kong. Alibaba stock is down 47% so far in 2021 and 22% over the last month as the sell-off has accelerated. Alibaba (BABA) stock forecast Investors may rejoice at the current bounce in Chinese tech stocks, but this has all the makings of yet another dead cat bounce. Take a look at the monthly chart below. BABA has broken the huge $130 level, which was really the last hope of support. Now it is lookout below until $100. The longer-term view is strongly negative until $169 is broken to the upside. Alibaba chart, monthly Shorter-term traders will be aware of the 9-day moving average offering resistance at $127.56. The MACD, stochastics and RSI all remain in bearish territory. The 15-minute chart does show short-term support at $112 with a large amount of volume at that level on Friday that provided a base for Monday's rally. This may carry on for Tuesday as risk assets are due to bounce, but $130 will likely cap any further gains. Alibaba daily chart above and the 15-minute chart below. The 15-minute shows the large support volume at $112.  

Oil: Crude has been rocketing higher after positive news flow with regards to omicron. Early evidence from South Africa indicates that ICU and oxygen usage are lower than previous waves at similar points on the timeline as well as those in hospital being largely unvaccinated. Based on this small sample size of evidence (which makes me still cautious) this leads one to believe omicron seems more transmissible, but less severe. Fauci (Biden’s Chief Medical Adviser) also shared optimism over the weekend stating that early signals show not a whole lot of severity. GlaxoSmithKline Plc also announced from their recent research that their Covid-19 antibody treatment is effective against mutations in omicron. Risk assets, which oil is falls into got a boost from this and current price action indicates some hot money has flowed back into the black liquid. Adding fuel to the bullish fire we had news that Iran-US Nuclear talks have stumbled a bit. Looking at the daily chart, technicals are strong with an oversold bounce having taken place with $68 support holding. Price is now above its 200-day SMA. Targets wise, on the upside the 21-day EMA around $76 and $78 will be important. On the downside $73.5 (just above the 200-day SMA) will be key. AUDUSD: The RBA left their policy settings unchanged as expected by the market. On the technicals, looking at the 1-hour chart here we can see price is facing some resistance in the form of the intersection of the 200 period SMA, downtrend line and 61.8% Fibonacci level. The RSI is in overbought territory. Could we see a dip lower towards the 0.705 area between the 21 period EMA and the 50 period SMA. On the upside 0.715 would be important. EURJPY: EURJPY on the 1 hour chart has been fluctuating between the 128.5 and 127.5 range bounds. Keep this one on your radar if you like playing the range.

EURUSD seeks support The euro bounced higher after the bloc’s Q3 GDP beat expectations. A previous rebound was capped by the 20-day moving average, suggesting that the bearish sentiment still prevails. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area has prompted short-term buyers to take profit. The pair has met support above 1.1240. The bulls will need to lift offers around 1.1330 before they could attract momentum buyers. A bearish breakout would send the price to the floor at 1.1190. Its breach would trigger a new round of sell-off. AUDUSD breaks higher The Australian dollar soared after the RBA remained optimistic about the economic recovery. The pair saw strong buying interest at the psychological level of 0.7000, which also sits near November 2020’s lows. An oversold RSI on the daily chart compounds the ‘buying-the-dips’ behavior. An initial pop above 0.7070 forced bearish trend followers to cover their latest bets. 0.7170 would be the next target though the RSI’s overbought situation may limit the surge. 0.7040 is the first support for buyers to regroup and accumulate. USDJPY attempts to rebound The yen stalled after Japan’s GDP showed an unexpected contraction in Q3. A break below the daily support at 112.70 has put the bulls on the defensive. The latest consolidation is a sign of indecision as to whether the correction would continue. The greenback found support over 112.50 and a close above 113.95 could help the bulls regain the upper hand. Then the psychological level of 115.00 would be the next step before the uptrend could resume. On the downside, a fall below 113.10 would retest the key support at 112.50.

Since yesterday, Bitcoin has gone from almost $52K to $50.7K. On Tuesday, the crypto market was green on nearly all fronts, including ETH, ADA, XRP, etc. And although the Fear Index continued to remain in the horror zone with 26 points, everyone was buying altcoins. However, BTC did not gain a foothold above the resistance at $51,800, so it is premature to talk about conquering the heights and completing the correction. Perhaps this is not even a correction now, but a search for the actual price without rose-coloured glasses and excessive optimism. Whether there are still those who want to ride up at their own expense on the market, we will only find out when Bitcoin rises above $56K. A Grayscale poll found that 26% of American investors have already bought BTC. So, apparently, we just need the remaining 74% to join in. But do they have any motivation? Moreover, the United States has introduced cryptocurrencies into its anti-corruption strategy, although exactly how this will affect the market is unclear. Aside from the local downward trend in Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency market remains bullish, rapidly changing sentiment and moving from correction to growth. Based on the posts on Twitter, the popularity of cryptocurrencies is only growing. Thus, in partnership with the Gemini crypto exchange, the largest bank in Colombia, Bancolombia, added transaction services with BTC, ETH, LTC, and BCH to its list. Video game developer Ubisoft has launched an NFT platform, and blockchain project Spiral, a division of Jack Dorsey's Block, will improve Bitcoin's Lightning Network. Among the small altcoins, the hot class of projects related to the metauniverses remains. This topic is so popular that almost any new project considers it its duty to point out the potential for the development of this topic. It seems that investors are recruiting all newcomers to their portfolio, hoping to get an impressive profit if at least one project hits. However, you should be extremely careful. At the end of November, it seemed that the Covalent coin, issued six months ago, recovered relatively quickly from the traditional drawdown in the first months of its life. However, since the beginning of December, its value has been rapidly decreasing, colouring the first eight days of the month in red and confidently remaining below the offering price. At the same time, this cryptocurrency suits well for intraday trading: for yesterday's session, for example, it grew by 3.62%, although this did not affect the overall “red” result.

  November employment report was mixed. Unfortunately for gold, however, it won’t stop the Fed’s hawkish agenda. Nonfarm payrolls disappointed in November. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added only 210,000 jobs last month. This number is much lower than both October’s figure (546,000 gains) and the market expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 573,000 added jobs). So, it’s a huge blow to those optimistic about the US economy. However, this is a huge blow that nobody will care about because the disappointing payrolls were accompanied by a big decline in unemployment. As the chart above shows, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points, from 4.6% in October to 4.2% in November. What’s more, the unemployment rate declined simultaneously with the increases in both the labor-force participation rate (from 61.6% to 61.8%) and the employment-to-population ratio (from 58.8% to 59.2%). This means that the reduction in unemployment was genuine and rather not a result of dropping out from the labor market. Additionally, wage inflation has slowed down from 4.84% in October to 4.8% in November, remaining below expectations, which could slightly ease inflationary concerns. Last but not least, after revisions, employment in September and October combined was reported to be 82,000 higher than previously indicated, and the monthly job growth has averaged 555,000 so far this year. Therefore, even a weak November doesn’t change the fact that 2021 marked a great improvement in the US labor market.   Implications for Gold What does the November employment report imply for the gold market? The nonfarm payrolls disappointed, but it’s not enough to stop the Fed from accelerating the pace of tapering its quantitative easing, especially given the significant reduction in the unemployment rate. So, the hawkish revolution won’t be stopped. It may even be strengthened, as a big decline in unemployment brings us closer to “full employment” and meeting the criteria for hiking interest rates. This is, of course, not good news for the gold bulls. After hearing worries about inflation a few weeks ago, the Fed managed to calm investors. They’ve believed that Powell and his colleagues would take the inflationary threat seriously. Markets now expect a speed-up in the pace of tapering in December and as much as three interest rates hikes in 2022 (there are even investors who bet on seven hikes by the end of the next year!). However, there is a silver lining here. With the unemployment rate at 4.2%, the potential for further improvement is rather limited. And when a new upward trend begins, we will have rising unemployment rate and high inflation at the same time. Such conditions create stagflation, which would take gold higher. This is still a song of the future, though. Let’s focus on the recent past: gold prices increased slightly on Friday (December 3, 2021). Although the London P.M. Fix hardly changed (see the chart below), the New York price rebounded to about $1,783 on Friday from $1,769 the day before. However, it doesn’t change the fact that gold remains stuck in a sideways trend below $1,800, as concerns about inflation exist along with expectations of a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle. Luckily for gold, despite its hawkish rhetoric, the US central bank will remain behind the inflation curve. The cautious, dovish policy is simply too tempting, as hitting the brakes too hard could trigger a financial crisis and a recession. With the CPI annual rate above 6%, the Fed should have already hiked the federal funds rate instead of waiting until Q2 2022. And even with three 25-basis point hikes, real interest rates will remain deeply in negative territory, which should be supportive of gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Forex 2021-12-08 14:45 4 minutes to read Summary:  Risk sentiment is well on its way to erasing the reaction to the news of the omicron variant of covid, with most reactions across FX adjusting as one would expect on an improved outlook, with commodity currencies performing best, while safe haven JPY and CHF trade weaker and the euro is unable to figure out what it wants to do. Adding to a more hopeful stance and a weaker US dollar overnight was China allowing its currency to push to new highs for the year, beyond the highs established back in May. FX Trading focus: CNY new highs for the year, strong resurgence in risk sentiment The US dollar has pushed lower this week on a resurgence in risk sentiment, led by fading omicron fears – particularly yesterday – but also on hopes that China is set to support the global growth outlook and signaling confidence by allowing the renminbi to push to new highs for the year versus the US dollar. The weaker US dollar elsewhere this week explains the timing of the large move to new lows in USDCNH, as the CNH has actually underperformed resurgent commodity FX and some EM FX this week even while it outperformed the strong US dollar this year on balance. If the USD is to weaken further from here, it would be no surprise to see CNH continuing higher versus the US dollar – perhaps even beyond the 2018 lows in USDCNH – while keeping it somewhat weaker versus other currencies against which it has appreciated so aggressively this year. China is clearly interested in defending the stability and purchasing power of the CNH versus the USD and its basket, but the extent of the revaluation is getting stretched if we look at the official CNY basket. In G10 FX, the resurgence in risk sentiment has boosted the usual suspects and weighed against the other usual suspects, although a couple of unusual situations stick out: GBP and SEK: Sterling is in danger of breaking down versus the euro here after testing new lows for the year this morning in GBPUSD despite sterling’s former correlation with risk appetite, perhaps as a lot of air has been taken out of Bank of England expectations as the market has shifted the expected lift-off meeting to February of next year after pricing as early as November a couple of months ago. Late last week, the BoE’s normally hawkish Saunders sounded cautious on lifting off next week, while the day before yesterday Deputy Governor Broadbent advised looking “a couple of years ahead” in predicting that “these pressures on traded goods prices are more likely to subside than intensify”, although he did say wages could be an inflation driver. Chart: EURGBPEURGBP is poking at the 200-day moving average from the downside for the third time in recent months, and the less hawkish BoE may help trigger a further squeeze higher, especially if the 0.8600 prior pivot high falls. Next focus higher still comes in at the range highs from April-May near 0.8720. Source: Saxo Group SEK has traded sideways today rather than rallying, as one would expect, on the strong comeback in risk sentiment. The krona is historically one of the most highly risk sensitive currencies. Sure, the euro is largely stuck in the water here and the EU growth outlook has plenty of clouds over it with covid shut-downs etc, but EURSEK looks “wrong” relative to other reaction to the improved mood across markets, and should be lower. A statement today by Riksbank dove Jansson that it is hard to justify rate hikes and that a more active fiscal policy is the way forward likely held back SEK, as perhaps NOKSEK buying, judging from the last couple of session in that cross. In other developments, AUDNZD has cleared the important 1.0500 level, EURCHF is trying to pull higher but is still some way from challenging the important 1.0500 level. The CHF has not behaved anything like the JPY in recent months, failing to show sensitive in EURCHF, at least, to large shifts in safe haven years. Likely, to get EURCHF off the mat, we’ll need to see a broader EUR rally that includes EURUSD on a brightening outlook for EU growth. Hard to see how it gets much worse, on a relative basis, at present (covid shutdowns, energy crunch, etc…) The Bank of Canada is out just after pixel time for this article. The market is leaning for hawkish guidance for a sure rate hike at the January meeting, which is very likely what it will get. The degree to which CAD can continue to rally will also depend on whether the now suddenly very CAD-supportive backdrop extends. USDCAD needs to bash back below 1.2500 to suggest a full reversal of the rally move off the sub-1.2300 lows in October is in the cards. Looking ahead, the next critical event risks are the Friday US November CPI print, and then the exercise next week in seeing how the market reacts to the crystallization of the now hawkish Fed’s adjustments to its new monetary policy statement and to the “dot plot” of its policy forecasts. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthStill mean reverting from the prior trends in most currencies, but far more upside needed from commodity currencies to fully reverse the prior trends. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.A strong move higher in EU yields taking EURJPY back well above the important 128.00 level of contention lately – watching whether the trend can flip positive in the week ahead. Elsewhere, note again that AUDNZD has pulled above the important 1.0500, that USDCHF flipped positive (even if it is mid-range after surviving another test of the 200-day moving average), and that NOKSEK is trying flipping positive after a very sharp rebound from recent lows. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1500 – Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision 1500 – US JOLTS Job Openings survey 2130 – Brazil Selic Rate Announcement 2205 – Australia RBA Governor Lowe to speak 0001 – UK Nov. RICS House Price Balance 0130 – China Nov. CPI / PPI

S&P 500 sharply extended gains, and credit markets indicate some continuation even if by pure inertia. A trend in place, stays in place until reversed – and yesterday‘s upswing was sufficiently supported by the credit markets. The late day retreat in HYG is an obvious warning of a pause possibly coming next, but not of a reversal – the improvements in market breadth speak for themselves. So, I‘m looking for a lean day today, and I‘m keenly watching bonds and cyclicals such as financials for further short-term direction clues. While yesterday‘s upswing was driven by tech, the daily rise in yields and inflation expectations (however modest) was balanced out by still more yield curve compression. The risk-on turn in credit markets isn‘t over, and the key question is whether HYG can extend gains or at least go only sideways for a while. Today‘s key premarket news propelling risk assets up, was about Pfizer extolling its three-dose alleged efficiency against Omicron – even though the news was sold into shortly thereafter, it has the power to buy more time and provide fuel for stocks and commodities. The copper weakness remains the only watchout in the short term, and silver sluggishness reflects lack of imminent inflation fears. As if the current prices accurately reflected above ground stockpiles and yearly mining output minus consumption. It‘s the same story in the red metal, by the way. Patience in the precious metals – it‘s about Fed either relenting, or placing inordinate amount of stress on the real economy, which would take time. Spring 2022 most probably would bring greater PMs gains than 2021 with its fits and starts – aka when inflation starts to bite the mainstream narratives and stocks, some more. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 gapped higher, and is once again approaching ATHs. Hold your horses though for it would take some time to get there. I would prefer to see broader participation within value, which isn‘t totally there at the moment. It‘s improving, but still. Credit Markets HYG upswing was considerably sold into, and that spells some consolidation ahead. The degree to which it spills over into stocks, remains to be seen. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are still looking stable, and ever so slowly improving after the Fed hawkish turn hit. The central bank and real yields projections hold the key, but the countdown to higher prices is firmly on. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing indeed continued, and black gold looks set to consolidate gains unless value stocks spring some more to life later today. Anyway, the medium-term chart remains bullish. Copper Copper is another reason why I‘m not overly bullish for today – the red metal‘s base building looks to need a bit more time to play out. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still base building, and looking vulnerable. While a downswing isn‘t guaranteed, it can come and turn out to be sharp. Summary S&P 500 is likely to consolidate recent strong gain, not accelerating the surge today. The bulls within risk-on assets look to be slowly gaining the upper hand, and the opening part of today‘s analysis describes it‘s not a one-way street to fresh highs as the Fed has turned from a tailwind to a headwind. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation rose slightly, by 0.4%, to 2.36 trillion in the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index added another 1 point overnight to 29, a significant retreat from the December 6 lows of 16 points, but still in the fear zone. Binance Coin, XRP and Luna have added between 4% and 10% over the past 24 hours, leading the gains among the top altcoins. Growth has been held back by the negative dynamics of the first cryptocurrency, which is losing more than any other of the top-20 coins. The pressure intensified on exceeding the $50K level, pushing it down 1.7% in a day and 12% in seven days. As another result, bitcoin’s overall crypto market share fell below 40%. Approaching this mark in May was a manifestation of sharp profit-taking in Bitcoin after a dizzying rally. Any sustained period when the share of the first cryptocurrency fell below 40% was in January -March and April-June periods in 2018. After that, the BTC domination has recovered with altcoins’ deeper crash, called later the crypto winter. But there is another crucial point: Bitcoin’s peak share declines from cycle to cycle as more new players emerge. At the beginning of 2017, it was 87%, then in 2019, it is already less than 70%. Many other projects have appeared in place of XRP, which has lost its former strength, like a hydra with several new ones growing in an area of its severed head. That said, neither the mechanics (BTCUSD above its 200-day average and retreating from an oversold area on the daily charts) nor the sentiment in the stock markets are pessimistic, indicating that we see purely local momentum in Bitcoin. Ether continues to pivot around its 50-day moving average, sticking to local bullish momentum. As always, it should be stated that a sustained negative on Bitcoin has the power to affect the entire crypto market, but the smooth slide in price suggests that enthusiasts are looking for other ideas in the sector, but not a general flight out of it. Perhaps capital flowing from one cryptocurrency to another is the best scenario for the entire market. However, as Saturday showed, it is easy to scare the whole market with solid moves in BTCUSD.

Akash Girimath Bitcoin price continues to stride with $53,687 and $56,276 as its short-term targets. Ethereum price pauses before retesting the $4,659, followed by the $4,777 hurdles. Ripple price to face a declining resistance level before it retests $0.956. Bitcoin price has been on a steady recovery phase after the recent flash crash. Ethereum and Ripple follow big crypto and are on their trajectories of retracement. The upswing for BTC is likely to continue, but investors need to note that a downswing might emerge such that a range forms. Bitcoin price eyes higher highs Bitcoin price is recovery from its December 4 crash and is currently hovering around $50,000 psychological level. This ascent comes as BTC tries to flip the inefficiency left by the bears during the recent sell-off. While $53,687 is still the short-term resistance barrier BTC wants to tag, investors need to know that BTC might sweep the swing low at $46,698 and set a trading range. Although this might result in a brief correction, it can serve as an opportunity to accumulate for sidelined buyers. Clearing $53,687 will open the path for Bitcoin price to tag the next level at $56,276. In total, this run-up would constitute an 11% ascent from the current position. BTC/USD 4-hour chart On the other hand, if Bitcoin price retraces to the extent that it produces a lower low below the December 4 swing low at $40,867, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. Ethereum price promptly follows BTC Ethereum price has rallied roughly 30% from its December 4 swing low at $3,370 and shows signs that it wants to go higher. The $4,493 resistance barrier is the first level ETH will encounter. Clearing this level will place $4,659 and $4,777 hurdles in its path. Ethereum will easily tag these levels, but the holders should keep a close eye on the all-time high at $4,878, as ETH might revisit. In a highly bullish case, Ethereum price could extend beyond its record level and set up a new one at $5,000. ETH/USD 4-hour chart While things are looking up for Ethereum price, a failure to breach through the $4,493 hurdle could indicate a weakness among buyers. If ETH retraces lower and produces a lower low below $3,890, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. Ripple price faces two hurdles Ripple price has seen a considerable recovery, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum. As it stands, the XRP price looks ready to tackle the bear trend line extending from November. Any uptick in buying pressure pushes the remittance token toward this barrier. A decisive 4-hour candlestick close above this trend line at roughly $0.87 will set a higher high and confirm an uptrend. This move could attract sidelined buyers and propel XRP price to retest the $0.956 barrier. In total, this climb would represent a 15% gain from the current position. XRP/USD 4-hour chart On the contrary, if Ripple price fails to slice through the declining trend line, it will suggest that the sellers are not done offloading. In this situation, the XRP price will knock on the $0.764 support level. A breakdown of this barrier that produces a lower low will invalidate the bullish thesis for XRP.  

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1300 Valeria Bednarik Stocks markets are giving mixed hints on sentiment heading into Wall Street’s opening. US Treasury yields recovered from an early dip, challenging weekly highs. EUR/USD is mildly bullish in the near term, needs to clear the 1.1310 resistance. The EUR/USD pair recaptured the 1.1300 level heading into the US opening, although so far, there has been no follow-through. The market´s mood is unstable, as investors are still struggling to price in the latest coronavirus developments and the latest from central banks after the Fed announced it might speed up tapering in their next meeting. The American currency managed to advance during European trading hours, following softer US government bond yields and as stocks traded with a sour tone. Equities bounced, putting mild pressure on the greenback, but as government bond yields remain strong, the dollar’s decline is modest. The EU did not release relevant macroeconomic figures, while the US published MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended December 3, up 2% from -7% in the previous month. The US will publish October JOLTS Job Openings. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair trades near a daily high of 1.1307, mildly bullish in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is currently extending above its 20 and 100 SMAs, both converging flat a few pips below the current level. At the same time, technical indicators crossed their midlines into positive territory, maintaining their bullish slope. The pair needs to break through the 1.1310 resistance to have further chances of advancing. Support levels: 1.1265 1.1220 1.1185 Resistance levels: 1.1310 1.1345 1.1380

  The bulls pumped up the market, but with fundamentals deteriorating and corporations largely responsible for the spike, regular investors will be left holding the bag. With investors betting on a Santa Clause rally despite the deteriorating fundamentals, the S&P 500 helped the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior mining stocks) outperform on Dec. 7. However, with short-covering and corporate buybacks primarily responsible for the daily spike, another ‘Minsky Moment’ could be on the horizon. To explain, I wrote on Nov. 19: While European markets have largely ignored the recent coronavirus spikes, a sharp sell-off could be the spark that lights the S&P 500’s correction. To explain, the DAX 30 Index (Germany) and the CAC 40 Index (France) both closed slightly lower on Nov. 18. However, prior to Nov. 18, the DAX 30 had closed in the green for 13 of the last 15 trading days, and one-upping its European counterpart, the CAC 40 had closed in the green for 15 of the last 16 trading days. On top of that, the CAC 40 had an RSI (Relative Strength Index) north of 80, while the DAX 30 had an RSI north of 75. As a result, both indices are materially overbought at a time when Germany is implementing new restrictions. Thus, if a Minsky Moment strikes in Europe, don’t be surprised if the negativity cascades across the Atlantic. To that point, after volatility erupted on cue, the DAX 30 suffered an intraday peak-to-trough decline of 7.8%, the CAC 40 dropped by 7.3%, and the S&P 500 dropped by 5.2%. Please see below: However, with overzealous equity bulls back at it again on Dec. 7, the PMs benefited from the risk-on sentiment. However, with the fundamental problems still present, investors may have set themselves up for more disappointment. To explain, with hedge funds increasing their short bets a little too late, Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage reported that last week, “US equities on the GS Prime book made up more than 85% of the global $ net selling (-1.4 SDs), driven by short sales and to a lesser extent long sales (9 to 1).”  In a nutshell: hedge funds increased their short bets at the worst possible time. Please see below: Thus, with the Dec. 7 rally driven mainly by a reversal of these positions, the profound short squeeze helped uplift the PMs. For example, Bank of America data shows that last week’s corporate buybacks were the highest weekly total since March. And by repurchasing nearly $3.4 billion of their own stock (focus on the first blue column from the left), their bids helped calm the S&P 500’s selling pressure. Please see below: What’s more, while Bank of America said that hedge funds and retail investors somewhat bought the dip last week (though, they’re still net-sellers over the last four weeks), corporations did much of the heavy lifting.  As a result, with retail investors running out of gas and hedge funds mainly closing out their shorts on Dec. 7, the S&P 500 should resume its correction. More importantly, though, mining stocks’ recent strength should wilt away as the drama unfolds.  Please see below: And now for the grand reveal: corporations' buyback blackout period begins on Dec. 10. And since they can't repurchase more shares until the New Year, the elephant in the room won't be able to support the S&P 500. Likewise, after hedge funds covered their shorts on Dec. 7, short-covering won't be able to support the S&P 500 either. As a result, mining stocks should suffer if the negativity resurfaces over the next few weeks. Please see below: To explain, the red line above tracks the hourly movement of the S&P 500, while the gold line above tracks the hourly movement of the GDXJ ETF. As you can see, the junior miners often follow in the S&P 500’s footsteps. And with the S&P 500 setting itself up for another drop, the GDXJ ETF likely won’t be far behind. To that point, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release on Dec. 10 and the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting scheduled for Dec. 14/15, sources of volatility will arrive at a time when corporations are stuck on the sidelines.  For context, I wrote on Nov. 12: I’ve highlighted on several occasions how the Commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) often leads the following month’s headline CPI. And after the former increased by 2% month-over-month (MoM) on Nov. 9 – which is a material MoM increase – and by 22.2% YoY (a new 2021 high), it implies a headline CPI print of roughly 5.75% to 6.25% when the data is released on Dec. 10. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the commodity PPI, while the red line above tracks the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI. If you analyze the relationship, you can see that the pair have a close connection. In addition, after expectations for September were pulled forward to July, and then expectations for July were pulled forward to June, now, the probability of a Fed rate hike in May 2022 has reached ~69%. Please see below: Also noteworthy, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Dec. 3 that “the danger now is that we get too much inflation.... It's time for the [Fed] to react at upcoming meetings.” He added: “the inflation numbers are high enough that I think [ending the taper by March] would really help us to create the optionality to do more if we had to, if inflation doesn't dissipate as expected in the next couple of months.” For context, Bullard reiterated that he expects two Fed rate hikes in 2022. The bottom line? While the bulls stampeded through Wall Street on Dec. 7, things aren’t as rosy as they appear. And while the PMs benefited from the renewed optimism, their tepid rallies are even more fragile. Moreover, with another inflation print on the horizon and the FOMC’s Dec. 15 decision including its Summary of Economic Projections, the hawkish revelations could rattle the financial markets. And with corporate buybacks starting their holiday vacation on Dec. 10, stock market investors are on their own to navigate what comes next. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Dec. 7, as risk-on sentiment reigned supreme. However, with the S&P 500 rallying by more than 2% and WTI rallying by nearly 4%, the PMs’ daily upswings were relatively muted. As a result, precious metals investors sense that caution is warranted. And with their trepidation a sign of heightened anxiety, they likely realize that going long the PMs involves much more risk than reward. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDCAD tests key support The Canadian dollar inched lower after the BOC left its interest rate unchanged as expected. The pair has met stiff selling pressure at the supply zone around 1.2850, a triple top on the daily chart. A drop below 1.2720 has forced out short-term buyers. 1.2580 is the next support and it sits on the 30-day moving average. A bearish breakout would deepen the correction to the psychological level of 1.2500. On the upside, the bulls will need to clear 1.2770 before they could have another attempt at the supply zone. USOIL rebounds from demand zone WTI crude bounces back on signs that the new virus strain has a limited impact on demand. Price action met strong buying interest near last August’s lows at 62.00, a major support from the daily chart to keep the uptrend intact. A bullish RSI divergence in this congestion area indicates a loss of momentum in the bearish drive. Then a rally above 69.30 forced the sellers to exit, opening the door for an extension towards 79.00. The initial surge has pushed the RSI into the overbought territory. 68.00 is an immediate support. GER 40 to test major resistance The Dax 40 recoups losses as fears of the omicron variant start to subside. Last October’s lows near 14900 have proven to be a solid support. The rally above 15520 stirred up volatility as the last sellers rushed to the exit. The bulls are pushing towards 15920, where the index took a nosedive in late November. A bullish breakout could attract more buying interest and turn market sentiment around. Meanwhile, an overbought RSI has caused a pullback, giving time for the bulls to accumulate. 15300 is the closest support.

Equities 2021-12-09 13:30 8 minutes to read Summary:  Nubank is set to start trading today on NYSE after closing one of the largest IPOs this year raising $2.6bn. Nubank is a digital first and Brazil's fastest growing bank expected to grow net revenue by 100% in 2021 and backed by Berkshire Hathaway, and will be seen as a major test of the fintech business model and investor risk appetite for this type of businesses. We also take a look at the Belgian-based Umicore which is an unique company set to gain from the green transformation and especially the adoption of electric vehicles. The company has just signed a major JV with Volkswagen. The most valuable bank in Latin America Nubank is a Brazilian-based digital first bank with 40 million accounts and net revenue growth of almost 100% expected in 2021. The bank lists Berkshire Hathaway, Sequoia Capital and Tencent as its shareholders, and is raising $2.6bn in its IPO after reducing its valuation by 20% last week a demand was weaker than estimated. The shares were priced yesterday at $9 and will start trading today on NYSE with the Saxo ticker code NU:xnys. The bank is still not profitable but will still get a market value close to $42bn making Nubank the most valuable publicly listed bank in Latin America ahead of Itau Unibanco. This is a major milestone for the fintech industry and if the IPO turns out to be well-priced and Nubank delivers on expectations in the coming years then it will pave the way for many more fintech companies going public. The overall industry is still lacking to become profitable on a broad scale and Nubank will be the first test. What is interesting about Nubank is that it is rare to see a bank with revenue of $1.04bn in the last 12 months going so fast as investors are used to look at banks being low growth. The deal also highlights that Berkshire Hathaway is slowly changing its behaviour as it was also part of the Snowflake IPO (pure cloud infrastructure play) showing that the investment company famous for not investing in digital technology companies is increasing exposure in these newer technologies. Source: Bloomberg Umicore signs long-term supplier contract with VW The Belgian company Umicore is likely unknown to most but with a market value of €10bn and a very green transformation oriented business strategy, it is a company investors will get used to hear about in the future. Yesterday, Umicore shares were down 9% because the company downgraded its outlook for its battery materials unit, but at the same time it announced a joint-venture (JV) with Volkswagen on supply of cathode materials to Volkswagen’s battery production. The JV expects to ramp up production from an initial output of 20 GWh to 160 GWh by the end of the decade, which is equivalent to power 2.2mn electric vehicles. Volkswagen has planned to build six battery factories in Europe to control the supply chain of the most key component of electric vehicles as the German carmaker drastically ramps up EV production. Back in October Umicore signed Lithium supply deals with Ganfeng Lithium, one of China’s largest producers, and Vulcan Energy Resources from Australia. Source: Saxo Group With the JV, Umicore is positioning itself as gaining a lot growth from adoption of electric vehicles which is expected to deliver very growth rates this decade. Besides its battery materials unit, it also has business units within emission control for traditional cars and materials recycling. Umicore is well positioned to grow with the green transformation and for a better understanding of Umicore’s business the June 2021 investor presentation gives a good overview. In the short-term the business is facing headwinds from lower production and new car registrations across key markets in North America, Europe, and China. Like our Green Transformation basket, Umicore is up 4% following a strong start to the year up 55% by August as the company had the right green profile, but green transformation has suffered lately in terms of sentiment as many green companies have difficulties lifting profitability. Umicore is expected to deliver €1.17bn in EBITDA in 2022 which means that the company is valued at 10x on EV/EBITDA 1-year forward, which is roughly a 25% discount to the MSCI World Index. The consensus sell-side target price is €46. As we wrote in our recent equity note Things are not adding up any longer in the car industry, the valuations on EV-makers have reached levels where expectations are likely exceeding what can be achieved in the coming years due to supply constraints. In our note, we suggest that investors might indirect ways to get exposure to the electrification of the transportation sector such as getting exposure to semiconductor manufacturers to the car industry, lithium miners, battery manufacturers, and Umicore also fits this group of alternatives for investors.

S&P 500 rose as VIX retraced over half of its recent spike, but tech and value have a short-term tired look. Cyclicals turning down while utilities with staples barely budge in spite of a surge in yields? That looks really risk-off to me, and together with commodities and precious metals going nowhere, represents your usual setup before tomorrow‘s CPI announcement. So, count on some headwinds today.A reasonably hot inflation figure is expected tomorrow – inflation expectations have risen already yesterday. The fears are that a higher than what used to be called transitory figure, would cut into profit margins and send value lower. Even if inflation (which certainly hasn‘t peaked yet as I‘m on the record for having said already) isn‘t yet strong enough to sink stocks, the Fed‘s reaction to it is. The dynamic of tapering response messing up with the economy would take months to play out – so, the bumpy ride ahead can continue. If only the yield curve stopped from getting ever more inverted...Markets keep chugging along for the time being, and the warning signs to watch for talked in Monday‘s extensive analysis, aren‘t flashing red. While I would prefer to see more copper strength for confirmation (almost as much as no question marks creeping into the crypto land), this is what we have – and it indicates that the path higher won‘t be steep. Neither in stocks, commodities or precious metals – as I wrote yesterday:(…) The copper weakness remains the only watchout in the short term, and silver sluggishness reflects lack of imminent inflation fears. As if the current prices accurately reflected above ground stockpiles and yearly mining output minus consumption. It‘s the same story in the red metal, by the way.Patience in the precious metals – it‘s about Fed either relenting, or placing inordinate amount of stress on the real economy, which would take time. Spring 2022 most probably would bring greater PMs gains than 2021 with its fits and starts – aka when inflation starts to bite the mainstream narratives and stocks, some more.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 upswing looks ripe for a brief breather – the volume is drying up, and consolidation in the vicinity of ATHs shouldn‘t be unexpected.Credit MarketsHYG held up quite well on the day, but the stock market mood it translated into, was risk-off one as rising yields couldn‘t help cyclicals.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are still basing, positioned for the coming brief decline that has pretty good chances of being reversed right next. The countdown to higher prices and Fed mistake is firmly on, and the risks of being out of the market outweigh the patience now required.Crude OilCrude oil upswing is running into predictable headwinds, which I look to be resolved to the upside perhaps as early as tomorrow‘s regular session (I‘m not looking for CPI to send real assets down).CopperCopper is still quite lukewarm, and doesn‘t indicate a commodities surge right ahead. Some consolidation wouldn‘t be surprising now that half of the CRB Index downswing has been erased. Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum keep looking vulnerable – the yesterday discussed downswing possibility looks to be progressing, unfortunately for the bulls.SummaryS&P 500 is still likely to consolidate recent strong gain, and at the same time not to tank on tomorrow‘s inflation data. The (almost classical, cynics might say) anticipation is playing out in commodities and precious metals today, but I‘m looking for the downside to be reversed tomorrow as the yields vs. inflation expectations duo hint at. Fed fears this early in the tapering cycle will likely look to be a blip on the screen in the topping process hindsight.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Inflation supports gold, the expected Fed’s reaction to price pressure – not. Since gold ended November with a small gain, what will December bring? I have good and bad news. The good is that the price of gold rose 2% in November. The bad –is that the price of gold rose 2% in November. It depends on the perspective we adopt. Given all the hawkish signals sent by the Fed and all the talk about tapering of quantitative easing and the upcoming tightening cycle, even a small increase is an admirable achievement. However, if we focus on the fact that US consumer inflation rose in October to its highest level in 30 years, and that real interest rates have stayed deeply in negative territory, gold’s inability to move and stay above $1,800 looks discouraging. We can also look at it differently. The good news would be that gold jumped to $1,865 in mid-November. The bad news, on the other hand, would be that this rally was short-lived with gold prices returning to their trading range of $1,750-$1,800 in the second half of the month, as the chart below shows. Now, according to the newest WGC’s Gold Market Commentary, gold’s performance in November resulted from the fact that higher inflation expectations were offset by a stronger dollar and rising bond yields that followed Powell’s nomination for the Fed Chair for the second term. Indeed, as you can see in the chart below, the greenback strengthened significantly in November, and real interest rates rallied for a while. Given the scale of the upward move in the dollar, and that it was combined with a surge in yields, gold’s performance last month indicates strength rather than weakness. As the WGC notes, “dollar strength was a headwind in November, acting as a drag on gold’s performance, but not enough to outweigh inflation concerns.”   Implications for Gold Great, but what’s next for the gold market in December and 2022? Well, that’s a good question. The WGC points out that “gold remains heavily influenced by investors’ continued focus on the path of inflation (…) and the Fed’s and other central banks’ potential reaction to it.” I agree. Inflation worries increase demand for gold as an inflation hedge, supporting gold, but they also create expectations for a more hawkish Fed, hitting the yellow metal. It seems that the upcoming days will be crucial for gold. Tomorrow (December 10, 2021), we will get to know CPI data for November. And on Wednesday (December 15, 2021), the FOMC will release its statement on monetary policy and updated dot plot. My bet is that inflation will stay elevated or that it could actually intensify further. In any case, the persistence of high inflation could trigger some worries and boost the safe-haven demand for gold. However, I’m afraid that gold bulls’ joy would be – to use a trendy word – transitory. The December FOMC meeting will probably be hawkish and will send gold prices down. Given the persistence of inflation, the Fed is likely to turn more hawkish and accelerate the pace of tapering. Of course, if the Fed surprises us on a dovish side, gold should shine. What’s more, the hawkish tone is widely expected, so it might be the case that all the nasty implications are already priced in. We might see a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” scenario, but I’m not so sure about it. The few last dot-plots surprised the markets on a hawkish side, pushing gold prices down. I’m afraid that this is what will happen again. Next week, the Fed could open the door to earlier rate hikes than previously projected. Hence, bond yields could surge again, making gold move in the opposite direction. You’ve been warned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Apple stock powers on to more all-time highs on Wednesday. AAPL shares breach and close above $175. Is $200 a conceivable year-end target for Apple stock? Apple (AAPL) stock just continues to power on like a juggernaut. A powerful combination of momentum and fundamentals is pushing this one higher. Despite the market sell-off last week and earlier this week due to Omicron, Apple still found buyers. The stock has both defensive and offensive qualities. "Defensive" in terms of the huge cash pile it sits on and "offensive" in its entire business. The stock added another 2% on Wednesday, closing at $175.08. Apple is now up over 7% in just over a week, impressive when you consider the market background. Apple (AAPL) chart, 15-minute Apple (AAPL) stock news Apple was granted a motion to delay App Store changes that had been in the offing after the Epic Games ruling. Apple is appealing the so-called "Fortnite" issue as Epic Games is the creator of Fortnite. The ruling meant Apple would have to change some rules in order to allow links to outside payment systems. Because Apple is appealing the "Fortnite" ruling, it does not now have to make any App Store changes until that appeal decision. This likely means a multi-year-long reprieve for the App Store as the appeal will take time. A definite positive in our view. "Apple has demonstrated, at minimum, that its appeal raises serious questions on the merits of the district court’s determination," the 9th Circuit Court wrote on Wednesday-Reuters. Separately, Apple has lost more engineers from its car project to startup companies in the space, according to a report from Bloomberg. Apple (AAPL) stock forecast No resistance is in sight, obviously, when AAPL at record highs. The pivot level for short-term support is $167. Here we have some volume from last week, and also it is a breakout level for the move this week. The 9-day moving average will also likely track to this level today. Below the medium-term pivot is at $157, so Apple remains bullish above there. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) remain bullish, and volume has been strong behind this recent rally, indicating its health. AAPL 1-day chart

Tesla emerges unscathed from another equity sell-off on Tuesday. TSLA is likely to break higher on Wednesday as buyers return. Tesla CEO Elon Musk takes a bite out of Apple. Tesla (TSLA) stock can do no wrong in 2021, and it avoided another market meltdown on Tuesday. While panic ensued following Powell's remarks about the taper and inflation, TSLA held firmly in the green. Equity indices finished nearly 2% lower on Tuesday, but Tesla shares closed at $1,144.76 for a gain of 0.7%. This was another strong outperformance for a stock that is up 62% year to date. Contrast that with the Nasdaq, up 25 % for 2021, and the S&P 500, up a similar amount. 2021 has been the year of the electric vehicle, and Tesla paved the way for others to follow, notably Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID). Our chart above shows the strong correlation between Tesla and Lucid with both stocks putting in a stellar second half for 2021. Tesla (TSLA) stock news Elon Musk is nothing if not entertaining, and on a slow news day for Tesla he livened things up by taking a pop on Twitter toward Apple. Don’t waste your money on that silly Apple Cloth, buy our whistle instead! — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 1, 2021 The Apple cloth he is referring to is a polishing cloth available from Apple for $19. Tesla recently launched a Cyberwhistle for what reason? Who knows, but it is currently sold out. At $50 for a whistle, it is not exactly cheap. It seems people just love a Tesla product. Apple was no slouch either on Tuesday as the stock set all-time highs. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast The triangle formation still holds and a breakout is awaited. A triangle pattern is usually a continuation pattern, and Wednesday could provide the catalyst to break higher. The stock has consolidated well despite some strong headwinds: notably, Elon Musk selling a Cybertruck load of stock, and Tesla not performing well in a recent reliability test. It did however score highly on customer satisfaction, and investor satisfaction is also high given the strong performance. We expect more all-time highs this week even with the surrounding Omicron volatility. Our view will change if Tesla cracked below key support at $1,063. TSLA 1-day chart

  Fundamentals are as strong as ever, but gold has to go some way down before it can resume its uptrend. Think of Moria from The Lord of the Rings. While inflation has soared, the S&P 500 has soared, WTI has soared, and copper has soared, 2021 has been extremely unkind to the precious metals. Gold has declined by 6.25%, silver by 16.66% and the GDX ETF by 14.83% YTD – not to mention the GDXJ ETF (our short position), which is down by 24.91% (all as of the Dec. 9 close). Moreover, investors often assume that material underperformance provides them with buying opportunities. I mean, why not position for a reversion to the mean? However, the harsh truth is that bearish technicals predicted these drawdowns well in advance. And while 2021 has been rough, the charts signal more downside in 2022. To explain, while gold prices, silver prices, and mining stocks rallied hard in October, their price action was more of a trick than a treat. And with the trio becoming part of the bears’ Thanksgiving dinner in November, only Santa Clause can save them now. However, while the S&P 500 had uplifted sentiment, the GDX ETF closed the Dec. 9 session one cent below its Dec. 3 close and the senior miners gave back all of their early-week stock-market-induced gains. As a result, investors aren’t showing much faith in the GDX ETF’s medium-term prospects. Please see below: As further evidence, the GDX ETF’s 4-hour chart is also sending ominous signals. For example, after running into its declining resistance line (the red dashed line on the right side of the chart below), the senior miners’ momentum fizzled, and a sharp decline followed. For more context, I wrote the following on Dec. 7 and updated the analysis on Dec. 9: After verifying the breakdown below its rising support line, the GDX moved lower, just as I expected it to. Now it’s after a breakdown below its previous (November) lows, and it seems to be verifying that breakdown just as it verified the breakdown below the rising support line in late November. The black dashed line in the above chart shows the resistance provided by the previous lows. It wasn’t invalidated. At the same time, the GDX is well below its declining red resistance line, and even if it moves close to this line but then declines, it will not be viewed as something bullish. What happened yesterday (Wednesday) and on Tuesday is exactly what I put in bold. Gold miners moved to their declining red resistance lines and then they moved back down. As far as the November lows are concerned, while it might not be 100% clear based on the above chart, it is the case that the lowest daily close in November was $31.53, and yesterday, the GDX ETF closed the day at $31.49. As the daily closes are more important than the mid-session candlestick closes, I don’t view the breakdown below the November lows as invalidated. Showcasing similar weakness, the GDXJ ETF also reversed sharply after slightly breaking above its declining resistance line (the black dashed line on the right side of the chart below). The invalidation of the breakout served as a strong sell sign, and it’s no wonder that junior miners declined by almost 3% yesterday. Moreover, investors rejected the junior miners’ attempt to rally back above their November lows. As a result, whether big or small, the gold miners have struggled mightily. Please see below: To that point, with more negativity likely to commence in the coming weeks and months, I wrote on Dec. 2 that the selling pressure may persist until the GDXJ ETF reaches its September lows: One of the previous situations that’s similar to the current one is what we saw right before the mid-year top. I marked mid-year declines (from the start to the first more visible correction) in both charts: GDX and GDXJ with orange rectangles. If the history repeats itself, both proxies for mining stocks could move back to their previous 2021 lows before correcting. Please see below: Finally, while I’ve been warning for months that the GDXJ/GDX ratio was destined for devaluation, the ratio has fallen precipitously in 2021. Interestingly, the ratio is still moving lower, its RSI was previously overbought, and similar periods of excessive optimism have preceded major drawdowns (marked with the black vertical dashed lines below). For example, the ratio showcased a similar overbought reading in early 2020 – right before the S&P 500 plunged. On top of that, the ratio is still near its mid-to-late 2020 lows and its mid-2021 lows. As a result, the GDXJ ETF will likely underperform the GDX ETF over the next few months. It’s likely to underperform silver in the near term as well. Furthermore, a drop below 1 in the ratio isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. In fact, it’s actually quite likely – that’s what happened in 2020 as well, and that’s why I’m shorting the GDXJ ETF. For context, I believe that gold, silver, and the GDX ETF are all ripe for sharp re-ratings over the medium term. However, it’s my belief that the GDXJ ETF offers the best risk-reward ratio due to its propensity to materially underperform during bear markets. As a result, shorting junior miners remains the most prudent strategy, in my opinion. In conclusion, while the seasons have changed, gold, silver, and mining stocks’ downtrends have remained the same. With a cold winter likely to culminate with new lows, the precious metals should embark on a tumultuous journey over the medium term. However, as Shakespeare told us: all's well that ends well. And with gold, silver and mining stocks poised to soar in the years to come, the bulls should have the last laugh over the long term. In the meantime, patience is prudent, as sharp drawdowns will likely materialize before the precious metals resume their secular uptrends. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 predictably relented, but the resilience of value provides a glimmer of hope. Quite a solid one as the HYG spurt to the downside didn‘t inspire a broader selloff, including in tech. Yesterday was your regular wait-and-see session of prepositioning to today‘s CPI data. This not exactly a leading indicator of inflation clearly hasn‘t peaked, and inflation around the world either. The difference between the U.S. with eurozone, and the rest of the world, is that many other central banks are already on a tightening path.I count on such a CPI reading that wouldn‘t cause a rush to the exit door and liquidation in fears of Fed going even more hawkish (in rhetoric, it must be said). My series of pre-CPI release tweets have worked out to the letter – and now, it‘s back to the inflation trades.I already told you in yesterday‘s report:(…) A reasonably hot inflation figure is expected tomorrow – inflation expectations have risen already yesterday. The fears are that a higher than what used to be called transitory figure, would cut into profit margins and send value lower. Even if inflation (which certainly hasn‘t peaked yet as I‘m on the record for having said already) isn‘t yet strong enough to sink stocks, the Fed‘s reaction to it is. The dynamic of tapering response messing up with the economy would take months to play out – so, the bumpy ride ahead can continue. If only the yield curve stopped from getting ever more inverted...Markets keep chugging along for the time being, and the warning signs to watch for talked in Monday‘s extensive analysis, aren‘t flashing red.The pieces of the stock market and commodities rally continuation are in place, and the same goes for precious metals reversing the prior cautious stance. Even cryptos are warming up to the data release.Looking further ahead in time to 2022, I can‘t understate the bright prospects of agrifoods (DBA) – and it‘s in no way just about the turmoil in fertilizer land.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 downswing looks ready to be reversed soon – in spite of the drying up volume which often accompanies bull markets. The daily indicators remain positioned favorably to the bulls.Credit MarketsHYG weakness looks somewhat overdone to me – the prior upswing is still getting the benefit of my doubt. The coming sessions just shouldn‘t bring a steep HYG decline in my view.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are still basing, and I‘m looking for the hesitation to be reversed to the upside. Just see the tough headwinds in comparing silver being almost at its Sep lows while gold is trading much higher. Once the inflation narratives get a renewed boost, silver would play catch up.Crude OilCrude oil upswing is running into predictable headwinds, but I‘m looking at the next attempt at $72 to succeed, and for $74 to be broken to the upside later on.CopperCopper is still lukewarm, and waiting for the broader commodity fires to reignite. The red metal isn‘t in an anticipatory, frontrunning mood – its prolonged consolidation means though it‘s prefectly prepared to rise decisively again.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are finding buying interest, but the Ethereum underperformance has me still cautious after taking sizable ETH profits off the table yesterday.SummaryS&P 500 rally is likely to continue today, and the same goes for risk-on and real assets. The Fed evidently won‘t be forced into a more hawkish position in Dec, and the markets are starting to celebrate. Silently celebrate as it‘s not about fireworks, but a reasonable and well bid advance across the board. I hope you‘re likewise positioned!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  “Do you love me?”, asked gold. “Of course, my dear”, replied Jay, but his thoughts were with others: asset purchases tapering and interest rate hikes. “It’s complicated” – this is how many people answer questions about their romantic lives. The relationship between gold and Jerome Powell is also not a clear one. As you know, in November, President Biden announced that he would reappoint Powell for the second term as the Fed Chair. It means that gold will have to live with Jerome under the same roof for another four years. To say that gold didn’t like it is to say nothing. The yellow metal snapped and left the cozy living room of $1,850, slamming the door loudly. In less literary expressions, its price plunged from above $1,860 on November 19 to $1,782 on November 24, 2021, as the chart below shows. The impulsive gold’s reaction to Powell’s renomination resulted from its failed dream about a love affair with Lael Brainard. She was considered a leading contender to replace Powell. The contender that would be more dovish and, thus, more supportive of gold prices. However, is a hawkish dove a hawk? Is Powell really a hawk? Even if more hawkish than Brainard, he still orchestrated an unprecedentedly accommodative monetary policy in response to the pandemic-related economic crisis. It was none other than Powell who started to cut interest rates in 2019, a year before the epidemic outbreak. It was he who implemented an inflation-averaging regime that allowed inflation to run above the target. Right now, it’s also Powell who claims that the current high inflation is transitory, although it’s clear for almost everyone else that it’s more persistent. I wouldn’t call Powell a hawk then. He is rather a dove in a hawk’s clothing. So, gold doesn’t have to suffer under Powell’s second term as the Fed Chair. Please take a look at the chart below, which shows gold’s performance in the period of 2017-2021. As you can see, the yellow metal gained about 34% during Powell’s first term as the chair of the Federal Reserve that started in February 2018 (or 40% since Trump’s November 2017 nomination of the Fed). Not bad! Actually, gold performed much better back then than under Yellen’s term as the Fed Chair. During her tenure, which took place in 2014-2018, the yellow metal was traded sideways, remaining generally in a corridor between $1,100-$1,300. I’m not saying that Yellen despised gold, while Powell loves it. My point is that gold’s performance during the tenures of Fed Chairs varies along with changes in the macroeconomic environment in which they act and the monetary stance they adopt. Gold suffered strongly until December 2015, when Yellen finally started hiking the federal funds rate. It then rebounded, only to struggle again in 2018 amid an aggressive tightening cycle. However, at the end of that year it started to rally due to a dovish shift within the Fed, and, of course, in a lagged response to unprecedented fiscal and monetary actions later in 2020. I have bad and good news here. The former is that the macroeconomic environment during Powell’s second term could be more inflationary, demanding more hawkish actions. The Fed has already started tapering of its quantitative easing, and bets are accumulating that it could start hiking interest rates somewhere around mid-2022. What’s more, the continuation of Powell’s leadership ensures more stability and provides markets with more certainty about what to expect from the Fed in the coming years. This is bad news for safe-haven assets such as gold. Last but not least, the composition of the FOMC is going to shift toward the hawkish side. This is because some strong doves, such as Daly and Evans, are out, while some notable hawks, such as George, Mester (and also Bullard), are among the voting members in 2022. Gold may, therefore, find itself under downward pressure next year, especially in its first half. On the other hand, the current FOMC expresses clearly dovish bias. With mammoth public debt and elevated asset prices, aggressive tightening would simply be very risky from a financial and political point of view. So, the Fed is likely to generally remain behind the curve. By the way, Biden not only reappointed Powell for the second term as Fed Chair, but he also appointed Brainard as Vice-Chair. We also can’t exclude that Biden agreed to Powell’s second term only if he conducts “appropriate” monetary policy. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren once called Powell “a dangerous man.” Well, in a way, it’s true, as powerful people can be dangerous. However, history shows that Powell doesn’t have to be a threat to gold. After all, he is not a hawk in the mold of Paul Volcker, but merely a hawkish dove, or a dove that will have to normalize the crisis monetary policy and curb inflation. In the upcoming months, gold may struggle amid prospects of more interest rates hikes and likely strengthened hawkish rhetoric from the Fed. However, precious metals investors often sell the rumor and buy the fact. So, when the US central bank finally delivers them, better times may come for the yellow metal, and gold and Jay could live happily ever after. The End. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

  Stocks retraced some of their recent rally yesterday – was it just a quick downward correction before another leg up? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video. today's video." frameborder="0" allowfullscreen> The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,700-4,750, marked by the record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at around 4,610-4,630, marked by Tuesday’s daily gap up of 4,612.60-4,631.97. The S&P 500 is at its previous consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Bounced From the 16,400 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index got back to the 16,400 level on Wednesday and yesterday it retraced some of its recent advance, just like the broad stock market. However, tech stocks are relatively weaker, as the Nasdaq 100 is still well below the Nov. 22 record high of 16,764.85. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely retrace its yesterday’s decline this morning. So the broad stock market may extend a short-term consolidation following the recent rally. There have been no confirmed short-term negative signals so far and we may see an attempt at breaking above the 4,700 level following neutral CPI data release. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open higher this morning and we may see a consolidation along the 4,700 level. We are still maintaining our short position from the 4,678 level. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  What will next week bring us? Hopefully, another profitable trade! The entry has been triggered, and we are on track to reaching our first target. The fundamental question is: are we witnessing a resumption of bullish factors on natural gas? The price of gas hit its highest level since February 2014 in early October. Tight supplies and concerns about a rougher than expected winter in the northern hemisphere were the main propellants for natural gas. However, quite suddenly, a dip took place over the past week. Since exiting the key $ 5.00 per Million British thermal units (MBtu) support zone a week ago, it has fallen by more than 25% – more than 40% drop from its highest level in October. Meanwhile, at the pre-open last Monday, I told our subscribers to get ready to go long around the $3.604-3.716 support zone (yellow band), with a stop placed just below the $3.424 level (red dotted line) and targets at $4.009 and $4.355 (green dotted lines). As a result, gas prices contracted in stride while trading just into the provided entry area before the bull crowd woke up to push them back up in the following days. In fact, with gas prices picking up momentum from Wednesday, the proposed trade entry on the Henry Hub futures is turning profitable (and getting closer to target #1). Trading Charts Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned levels of our trade plan: Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGF22) Futures (January contract, 4H chart, logarithmic scale) In summary, my trading approach has led me to suggest some long trades around potential key supports, as this dip on natural gas offered a great opportunity for the bulls to enter long whilst aiming towards specific projected targets. If you don’t want to miss any future trading alerts, make sure to look at our Premium section. By the way, for those of you who are interested in trading biofuels, please note that I recently wrote an article on this topic to diversify your portfolio. Alternatively, you can have a closer look at my selection of stocks and MLPs through our public dynamic stock watchlist. Stay tuned – and happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

So, what are the facts: Monthly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, probabilities: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 10th, 2021. In 2020, silver broke a multiyear sideways range and moved strongly up. It has now consolidated for over a year in a sideways range again. This is a bullish setup! As much as emotions might be weary, from a probability perspective, a general rule is that the longer a congestion is from a time perspective, the more significant will be the subsequent breakout from that range. Statistical probabilities are also clearly pointing to the upside rather than returning into the prior range. Not to forget, buying near the lows of such a range box guarantees the lowest entry risk and highest risk/reward-ratio play to be taken for the long side, even if emotions might tell you otherwise. 2021 silver trades performance: 2021 silver trades performance. Another fact is that one does not need to know when and if a breakout is happening to extract money from the markets consistently. The above chart is this year’s silver trades that we posted in real-time in our free Telegram channel. The systematic approach focuses on low-risk entry points with a risk reduction method through our quad exit strategy. Sideways markets provide an income-producing aspect of one’s trading, and a possible breakout of a range would give a significant bonus. An approach like this keeps emotions in check since one’s labor gets rewarded and allows for significantly higher rewards once ranges do break. Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, silver is moving up: Silver in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 10th, 2021. In short, while waiting is strenuous, and one might feel doubtful, from a probability perspective, silver is an even likelier success story now than it has been six months or a year ago. What should also not be underestimated is the fundamental situation of this wealth preservation play. The extensions of governments playing the inflation game to such length are like adding fuel to the silver play. Widespread problems that are the pillars to this insurance play have, if anything, increased. Consequently, supporting a good likelihood that silver prices go up. When? Well, that is hard to say since no one knows the future, but maybe this question gets proportionally in weight too much attention since insurance isn’t just bought for the next storm to come but in principle acquired to make one feel good and to protect one’s wealth long term. The quarterly chart above shows how silvers inherent volatility can sustain, in times of market turmoil, extended phases of extreme standard deviation levels. Price moves far away from the mean (red line). We are trading near the mean as of now, and the very right green line is a projection of a possible price move up.   S&P 500 in US-Dollar, quarterly chart, Quod erat demonstrandum: S&P 500 in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 10th, 2021. Still, some doubt left? Have a look at the above S&P500 chart, representing the broad market. Does that look like a healthy chart? Baby boomers and general stock-market participants might be in for a rude awakening once they realize how little their fiat currency is still worth when they cash in those stock portfolio investments. Just compare your total living cost from 2020 with 2021. All positions from food to health insurance, from car gas to electricity bills. Calculate the percentage difference from those two numbers and add this percentage to the average acquisition cost of your physical silver, and you have the real value of your silver already now. How does homelessness double to a half million people per day sleeping roofless factor in? Does this chart represent great times when we face supply chain disruptions? Or is it all smoke and mirrors, and once the music stops, there will be countless chairs missing for everyone to sit down? Silver is moving up: The essential principle in play is that markets are counterintuitive. Meaning your feelings might have switched from enthusiasm to uncertainty, even frustration, but probability facts are in direct opposition to one’s feelings. This principle is the underlying reason why moves out of extended congestion zones can result in substantial moves. Once emotionally weak hands are washed out, these breakouts come from an emotional perspective surprising. Bears step aside and bulls chase prices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.

Bitcoin price has penetrated below the $53,000 support level and is currently exploring the $48,000 to $50,000 foothold. BTC needs to rise above $57,845 to flip bullish, failing could leave it open to retest $40,000. On-chain metrics are indicating a wide array of emotions, painting the indecisiveness of the crypto markets. Bitcoin price is currently hovering around a crucial barrier as bulls and bears hash it out. This fight for control shows indecision among the participants and is often formed before a volatile move. Short-term investors need to be cautious about the next move, therefore, so as not to be caught off guard. Bitcoin price at crossroads Bitcoin price has slipped below the $50,000 psychological level five times over the last six days. Although the first four times BTC recovered back above it, the December 9 crash produced a daily close below it. Price action for the next few days is crucial as it will determine or establish a directions bias. In some cases, Bitcoin price could consolidate before it violently explodes. While it is difficult to say in which direction BTC might head, let’s assume, it is a bullish move. In that case, Bitcoin price needs to produce a daily close above $57,845 to indicate that the bulls are back in control. Doing this will establish a higher high and eventually, a higher low, which will confirm the start of an uptrend. Even after flipping the $57,845 level, BTC needs to wade through a thick consolidation area up to $61,000. Beyond this level, the big crypto will then have to tackle the $65,509 hurdle and eventually the all-time high at $69,000. To trigger this scenario, BTC needs to consolidate or reverse the downtrend and produce a higher high above $57,845. BTC/USD 1-day chart Supporting this scenario is the daily active addresses chart, which shows that DAA is above the 30-day average of 944,000 and is currently at 1.11 million. This data reveals that despite the recent flash crashes, investors are still interacting with the bitcoin blockchain, suggesting that they are optimistic about BTC’s performance. BTC DAA chart Further implying that an uptrend is likely is the 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model, which has reset and is currently at 1%. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased BTC over the past year. There is a chance this index might dip into the negative territory, but there is also the possibility that long-term holders might start accumulating, kick-starting the uptrend. BTC 365-day MVRV chart Lastly, the stable coin supply reserve on all exchanges has hit a new all-time high of $21.3 billion as of December 9. This uptick seems to have picked up pace around November 25, indicating that investors could be preparing to buy the dip if we ever get one or using the stablecoins as collateral for their existing positions. BTC stablecoin supply reserve chart BTC bears are not far behind While the bullish scenario does not seem out of the realm of possibility, the breakdown of the $50,000 psychological level and $48,326 support level suggests that bears are in control. If buyers fail to rescue the pioneer crypto at these levels, there is a high chance the downtrend could deepen, knocking BTC down to $40,596, the next support floor. If this were to happen, the market makers will likely collect the liquidity resting below this area, allowing BTC to revisit the $30,000 levels again. In an extremely dire case, Bitcoin price could head below the July 20 swing low at $29,763 to collect the sell-stop liquidity. Supporting the bearish side of arguments is IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model, which shows that the next stable support level extends from $45,615 to $23,046. Here roughly 5 million addresses purchased 3.35 million BTC at an average price of $36,730. Even if BTC might head to $30,000 or lower, there is a high chance it might revisit $36,000. BTC GIOM Moreover, the large transaction volume worth $100,000 or more has also dried up from 12 million on November 16 to 5.4 million on December 6. This 55% reduction indicates large institutions or whales are uninterested in BTC at the current levels. BTC large transactions volume chart Investors need to be cautious, therefore, and observe how Bitcoin price reacts around the $50,000 psychological level. A consolidation followed by a pump to $57,845 will suggest that the bulls are trying to make a comeback. In which case, market participants need to wait for confirmation. If Bitcoin price continues to sell-off, then a revisit of $40,000 or lower seems plausible.

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 630th Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 11 December 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com Without looking... Think quick! What is the price of Gold right now? (HINT: If you read last week's missive, you already know the answer). "Uhh gee, mmb... in the 1780s?" Spot-on there, Squire, for the simplest reason that the price of Gold is always in the 1780s. Don't believe it? Feel free to verify the following, (you cannot make this stuff up): 'Twas in the 1780s ten years ago; 'twas in the 1780s ten months ago; 'twas in the 1780s ten weeks ago; 'twas in the 1780s ten days ago; and 'tis today in the 1780s -- 1783 to be precise -- as portrayed in the above Gold Scoreboard. That is just 44% of Gold's Dollar-debased value of 4015, even as honestly-adjusted for the increase in the supply of Gold itself. No kiddin'. Indeed should Gold have just died, an epitaph of solely "1780" is perfectly apt. "Charles, is this Gold's gravestone?" ... "That, my dear Dysphasia, is a rhetorical question." For just as the price of Gold was relatively "fixed" post-Issac Newton in the $18-to-$20 range, then again relatively "fixed" post-Bretton Woods in the $34-to-$35 range -- until 1971 upon Richard Nixon nixing such Gold Standard -- today we might say Gold is relatively "fixed" in the 1780s by "The M Word" crowd. Indeed, the "manipulation" motif is gaining more and more mainstream mention of late, the market depth of bids and offers rotating marvelously around 1780 as a centerpiece price. And it never being wrong, the market is what 'tis today: 1780. But broad buying sway can this allay: for Gold remains extraordinarily under-owned, an understatement at that. 'Course, the day to sell your Gold is the day everybody wants it, even at a five-figure price. But for now, why own a dense, ductile lump of rather incongruous rock when with a mere tap of the mouse one benefits many times over from an increasing array of shiny objects permeating the markets, be they earningless stocks or cryptocrap or even non-fungible tokens? Certainly they make one and all cocksure and feeling fine! (Until suddenly the objects vanish, but we're not supposed to say that). And how about Sister Silver of late? Hardly does she feel very great. Whilst Gold has been ad nausea sedentary in forever wallowing 'round the 1780s, and more accurately being -3.0% month-over-month, Silver senselessly has skidded -10.9%! Quite obviously, Silver has not been adorned in her precious metals pinstripes. So it must instead be that she is sporting her industrial metal jacket, right? For Cousin Copper clearly must be going over the cliff. But no, 'tisn't. Rather for the same stint, Copper is off but a mere -0.5%. What To Figure, eh? Last week we wrote of market dislocation: Silver has become so dislocated as to have been left naked! Here are the percentage tracks of our BEGOS Markets' metals triumvirate from one month ago-to-date (21 trading days): Further, guess what just crossed above 80x for its first occurrence since 29 September? Exactly right: the Gold/Silver ratio, which now is 80.3x. Its millennium-to-date average is 66.4x. Thus were Silver today (22.215) priced at the average, she'd in fact be +24.6% higher at 27.690. (Think means regression). Either way, by our math, Silver right now is a steal (!!!) So as Silver sinks even as Copper remains buoyant -- which makes no sense -- Gold sedentarily sits. In settling out the week yesterday at the aforementioned 1783, price on a points basis traced its narrowest week (since that ending on Valentine's Day 2020) in the last 22 months, and the narrowest week on a percentage basis since that ending nearly two years ago on 22 December 2019. So narrow was last week's trading range that it barely shows as the rightmost nub on the graphic of Gold's weekly bars from one year ago-to-date: Economically, the past week of incoming metrics were inflation-persistent. There was an upward revision to Q3's Unit Labor Costs along with a downward revision for the quarter's Productivity: that's Classic Stagflation, right there! Too, November's CPI remained stubbornly high with an +0.8% reading, (which for those of you scoring at home is an annualized pace of +9.6% ... are ya gettin' that with all the dough you've got sitting in the bank? Oh right, you put it all in the stock market). October's Trade Deficit backed off from that for September, whilst Consumer Credit eroded and Wholesale Inventories somewhat bloated. December's University of Michigan Sentiment Survey regained the 70 level, but remains below the COVID-era average of 77. Put it all together and the Economic Barometer lost of bit of tether: With further respect to rising everything ('cept the metals), Dow Jones Newswires during the week ran with "This Inflation Defies the Old Models. Neither supply or demand by itself is increasing prices; it’s an unusual combination of both." True enough: we've tons of money chasing not enough stuff, the cost of which to produce and supply is ever-increasing. This is what happens when the system is flooded with money. Everybody's loaded, so why the heck seek work? Especially given your shiny object investments see you retiring at 35. (Or as a French friend oft texts to us: "So gréat!") Meanwhile come 21 December (that's Tuesday a week), some 40% of StateSide obligations shan't be payable (per analysis from the Bipartisan Policy Center) given the debt ceiling then being reached. "Hey Shinzō, that you? Joe here. Hey listen: we may have to skip that next interest payment. My Janet who? Hello Shinzō? Hey! Are you still there, buddy?" Or something like that. Which leads us to three critical, succinct questions: â–  "Got Gold?" â–  "Got Silver?" â–  "Has the S&P crashed yet?" Just askin'. In fact speaking of the latter, our "live" S&P 500 price/earnings ratio is now 48.6x, (another of our honest calculations that the FinWorld elects not to perform). In fact, the "in" thing these days is to value a company -- should they not have earnings -- by revenues. (This is referred to as "Dumbing-down beyond stoopid"). For example, we read this past week that such valuation method is apparently touted for a shiny object called "Snowflake". Last year this object's top line was +$592M and its bottom line -$539M, a truly symmetrical snowflake swing of -$1.1B. Moreover, we read (courtesy of NASDAQ) that negative swings are to be again seen in '22, '23 and '24. And snowflakes do melt. (See 2000-2002). Just sayin'. 'Course to be fair, Gold's price as a function of valuation continues to melt. The U.S. money supply continues to rise, yet Gold's price remains hardly wise, (except in the guise to load up on this prize). To wit, our two-panel graphic featuring on the left Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date and on the right price's 10-Market Profile. The good news per the "Baby Blues" having just ceased their fall right at the -80% axis is that price's recent freeze in the 1780s may be the consolidative haunch from which to launch. And obviously, those incessant 1780s clearly dominate the Profile: Silver's like graphic shows both price and the "Baby Blues" (below left) clearly more skittish than Gold, whilst her Profile (below right) sees her singin' the blues. (But grab some Silver whilst you've nuthin' to lose!) Grab a glimpse too at The Gold Stack: The Gold StackGold's Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening "Scoreboard"): 4015Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 2089 (07 August 2020)Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 2075 (06 August 2020)2021's High: 1963 (06 January)The Gateway to 2000: 1900+The 300-Day Moving Average: 1815 and fallingThe Final Frontier: 1800-1900The Northern Front: 1800-1750Trading Resistance: 1785 / 179510-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 1783Gold Currently: 1783, (expected daily trading range ["EDTR"]: 22 points)Trading Support: 1777 / 177310-Session directional range: down to 1762 (from 1811) = -49 points or -2.7%On Maneuvers: 1750-1579The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 17282021's Low: 1673 (08 March) The Floor: 1579-1466Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466The Support Shelf: 1454-1434Base Camp: 1377The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr '18 preceded by 1362 in Sep '17Neverland: The Whiny 1290sThe Box: 1280-1240 And then there's next week. 15 metrics are scheduled for the Econ Baro. And the mid-week cherry? A policy statement from the Federal Open Market Committee. "Oh no, not again!" Kinda like those radio hits: good or bad, they just keep on comin'! So c'mon and get yourself some Gold, and don't forget the Silver too! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com

Pfizer and BioNTech released the results of their recent laboratory study which found that their vaccine’s antibody response is capable of neutralizing omicron (levels similar to 2 doses against previous strains) after three doses. There was a more than 25-fold reduction in the efficacy of the vaccine however, showing the 32 mutations in omicron does certainly have an impact. The vaccine induced T cells are not affected by omicron and should therefore still provide protection from severe symptoms. To finish off a Japanese study showed that omicron was 4.2 times more transmissible than delta in its early stage. We know that omicron was far more transmissible already so this isn’t a major shock, however, the issue with higher transmissibility is the opportunity for further new variants to arise which (hopefully) will not increase in lethality. Dollar Index (DXY): The greenback is basically flat from where it started the week as traders remain hesitant to push price in a new direction until today’s CPI result is out the way. Omicron news as mentioned above has been on the positive side so risk-off flows derived from that side of things has been non-existent. However, where we could see more safe haven bids for the dollar is from any escalation in the Russia Ukraine tensions, with an invasion very likely seeing risk-off ensconcing markets. This would clearly benefit the dollar on the lhs of the smile (risk-off). Data wise, job numbers filled the rather quiet calendar throughout the week with vacancies reaching new records as well as jobless claims breaching the 200k mark, coming in at 184k. We also had bond auctions coming to the fore, beginning with the front end of the curve, 3-year auctions showed strong demand despite today’s inflation numbers; moving to the back end of the curve the 10-year also showed relatively robust demand. It was the 30-year bond which was very weak with yields spiking higher leading to fears over today’s inflation numbers being the main driver. Inflation numbers were smack bang in line with consensus at 6.8% YoY (highest since 1982) and 4.9% YoY for core. The initial market reaction saw the dollar softer as short term rates fell (clearly the market was positioned for 7%), but that initial dollar weakness is now being retraced as it's still a solid number (Fed won't change path) with prices increases broad based.  Next week the focus will be on the Fed meeting where the risks are definitely tilted towards the hawkish side for the dollar. (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) The dollar is ever so slightly above its upper trend line and the 21-day EMA has provided good dynamic support. The RSI has bounced off the 55 support level too keeping the uptrend momentum in tact. There is some resistance at 96.5 to monitor and on the downside the 21-day EMA would be important to watch if price slides. EURUSD: The euro continues to tread water as it faces headwinds on multiple fronts. The week began with fairly positive ZEW sentiment reading with current conditions missing (expected with covid restrictions), but the main index reading more positive than expected. Olaf Scholz has now been inducted as Chancellor of Germany with the end of Merkel’s reign officially coming to an end. European gas has been soaring again as tensions between Russia and US led to reports than Biden could implement sanctions on Russia. Europe is highly exposed to the price of natural gas so this could be one to watch for sure. Next week sees a very important ECB meeting with a fresh set of economic projections out (I’ll be watching their inflation forecasts particularly) as well as insights into how they’ll navigate the completion of their PEPP programme and transition. I’ll be providing a preview next week.  (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) EURUSD moves sideways with a slight tilt towards the downside capped by the overhead 21-day EMA. 1.135 resistance has formed as the one to watch. The price support at 1.125 should be on your radar too. The RSI has rolled over a touch and pointing lower. The former low around the lower trend line at 1.12 could be very important over the next week. GBPUSD: Sterling has been under pressure as multiple factors line up against it. The week began with centrist Ben Broadbent’s speech which didn’t drop any hints on what the BoE may do at their December meeting. UK GDP data was disappointing with missed expectations on a monthly time frame as well as YoY and 3-month average. Plan B restrictions have now been implemented - guidance to work from home from Monday, and an extension of face masks to most public indoor venues (public transport etc). Mandatory Covid-19 passes will now be needed for entry to places such as nightclubs and venues with large crowds. With Plan B restrictions and softer GDP data, markets are all but certain a BoE hike will not happen at next week’s meeting, opting to rather wait until February for a move. I’ll be providing a preview for this event, but we shouldn’t be getting any curve balls as expectations are widely baked in for no hike, leading to very muted reactions in GBP crosses if any. UK opinion polls have moved against Boris Johnson after the uproar caused by allegations of his rule breaking Christmas party. Labour is now ahead in a variety of polls, which hasn’t occurred for a long time. If the fallout continues the Conservative MPs may decide to trigger a vote of no confidence in him which may inject some political instability. Article 16 could be used as a deflection and distraction tactic to turn the spotlight away from himself. (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) GBPUSD looks technically weak as it trades below the lower trend line of its descending channel. The RSI hovers just above oversold. 1.315 on the downside would be key for a move lower while 1.32.5 - 1.33 on the upside just below the 21-day EMA would be key. USDJPY: The yen continues to come under pressure as the US 10-year yield moves higher and risk sentiment leans on the positive side, reducing the need for risk-off hedges. Tensions over Russian invading Ukraine will need to be monitored though as this could see flows directed towards the yen. (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) USDJPY continues to be bid around its 38.2% Fibonacci level and mini range support around 113.5. The 50-day SMA and 21-day EMA are bunched up right together on the price candles. The RSI edges above the 46 level of support. Targets wise, on the upside 114-114.5 will remain key while on the downside 112.5 will be important to watch. Gold: Omicron variant positive news flow is taking the allure away from gold for safe haven flows, however, rising tensions between the US and Russia is helping to offset that. Real yields have also been rising higher of late which will pressure gold as well as a stronger dollar. Gold is a tad stronger on the inflation release as traders had most likely positioned for a 7% print and this not being the case has led to some bids flowing through.  (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) Gold remains trapped in a tight range with today's inflation data a potential catalyst for a more directional move. Price is now just above the $1775 support level. The RSI has turned back upwards, but remains in no-man's land. The important level on the upside will be $1800 just above all the key moving averages. Oil: Oil certainly saw some new hot money coming back in to drive the recent recovery up from the $68 support area. Beginning the week we saw Saudi Arabia decided to hike their selling price to Asia and the US, indicating that they believe demand will remain robust despite omicron restriction fears. So far omicron news has been positive enough not to lead to expectations of serious demand destruction. Plan B work from home guidance has probably led to some slight weakness in crude, but we’ll need to watch what airlines decided to do in the next few weeks for jet fuel demand. Official US inventory data showed a modest reduction in inventory levels, but nothing to get excited about. Iranian talks are continuing ahead with nothing of anything major to report back on (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) Oil now between its 200-day SMA and the 21-day EMA, is looking for its next direction. Support comes in around $73.50 with the 200-dauy SMA just below there. On the upside $76 provides resistance aided by the 21-day EMA. The RSI, has turned upwards and will need to continue in that direction for bulls to be satisfied.

S&P 500 recaptured 4,700s on little change in market breadth and ever so slowly coming back to life HYG. Credit markets made a risk-on move, but HYG isn‘t leading the charge on a medium-term basis in the least – it‘s improving, but the stiff headwinds in bonds are being felt. Given the CPI discussed at length on Friday, it‘s still a relative success. Make no mistake though, time is running short in this topping process, and trouble is going to strike earliest after the winter Olympics. Global economic activity might be peaking here, and liquidity around the world is shrinking already – copper isn‘t too fond of that. The Fed might attempt to double the monthly pace of tapering to $30bn next, but I doubt how far they would be able to get at such a pace. Inflation and contraction in economic growth are going to be midterms‘ hot potatoes, and monetary policy change might be attempted. Tough choices for the Fed missed the boat in tapering by more than a few months. 2022 is going to be tough as we‘ll see more tapering, market-forced rate hikes (perhaps as many as 2-3 – how much closer would yield curve control get then?), higher taxes and higher oil prices. Stocks are still likely to deliver more gains in spite of all the negative divergences to bonds or other indices (hello, Russell 2000). Copper would be my indicator as to how far further we have to go before GDP growth around the world peaks. Oil is ready for strong medium-term gains, and I‘m not looking for precious metals to yield much ground. Silver though is more vulnerable unless inflation returns to the spotlight. Cryptos do likewise have issues extending gains sharply. All in all, volatility is making a return, and it isn‘t a good news for the bulls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 advance continues, and I‘m looking for ATHs to give in. It will take a while, but the balancing on a tightrope act continues. Credit Markets HYG strength didn‘t convince, but it didn‘t disappoint either – the constellation remains conducive to further stock market gains. So far and still conducive. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are stronger than miners, and the lackluster, sideways performance is likely to continue for now – fresh Fed policy mistake is awaited, and it‘s actually bullish that gold and silver aren‘t facing more trouble when the consensus expectation is faster taper. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing is still struggligh at $72, and remains favored to go higher with passage of time as excess production capacity keeps shrinking while demand isn‘t being hit (no, the world isn‘t going the lockdowns route this time). Copper High time copper stopped hesitating, for its sideways trading is sending a signal about future GDP growth. The jury is still out in the red metal‘s long basing pattern – a battle of positive fundamentals against shrinking liquidity and possibly slowing growth. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bottom searching goes on, and I suspect at least a test of Friday‘s lows is coming. I don‘t see too many signs of exuberance returning right away as Ethereum hasn‘t yet started to outperform. Summary S&P 500 bulls continue climbing a wall of worry even if credit markets don‘t confirm entirely. Risk-on and real assets rally is likely to continue, and the road would be getting bumpier over time. The Fed won‘t overcome market expectations, and the last week of Nov (first week of balance sheet contraction) pace wouldn‘t be consistently beaten without consequences down the road. Select commodities and precious metals are already feeling the pinch, but there is no sending them to bear markets. Get ready for the twin scourge of persistent inflation and slowdown in growth to start biting increasingly more. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The S&P 500 index got back above the 4,700 level on Friday after gaining almost 1%. The only way is up now? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video. Nasdaq 100 Remains Close to the 16,400 Level Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index got back to the 16,400 level last week. It is the nearest important resistance level, marked by some previous local highs. Tech stocks remain relatively weaker, as the Nasdaq 100 is still well below the Nov. 22 record high of 16,764.85. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely slightly extend its last week’s advances this morning. However we may see a short-term profit-taking action at some point. There have been no confirmed short-term negative signals so far, and we may see an attempt at getting back to the late November record high. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open slightly higher this morning but we may see a consolidation above the 4,700 level. Our short-position is very close a stop-loss level, and we’ll close it if it breaks above it again. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Tesla (TSLA) just cannot break below key support at $1,000. Equity markets remain supportive with more all-time highs for the indices. Tesla (TSLA) is still seeing selling from CEO Elon Musk. Tesla shares are still holding above the key $1,000 level as we approach the final lap of the year. Tesla (TSLA) is up an impressive 44% so far this year in what has been the year of the mega tech names. Indeed Goldman Sachs notes this morning that five stocks account for more than half of the S&P's return since the end of April. Those names are all familiar big tech, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Apple. This so-called narrowing of the returns or a lack of market breadth is often cited as a bearish factor. Goldman adds that the market cap of the top 10 stocks in the S&P make up 31% of the total S&P 500 market cap. That is the highest since 1980. While all this is beginning to sound increasingly alarmist fear not Goldman said. They estimate that this narrowing trend is set to continue and to stick with growth stocks into 2022. Tesla (TSLA) should see more benefits if that strategy is maintained, adding further to the large headache the stock gives value to investors. Price/earnings multiples are out the window with Tesla. It is pure momentum. Tesla (TSLA) chart, 15 minute Tesla (TSLA) stock news Not exactly stock specific but Elon Musk is Time magazine Person of the Year for 2021. Time CEO said, "Person of the Year is a marker of influence, and few individuals have had more influence than Musk on life on Earth, and potentially life off Earth too.".In relation to EV's the CEO added: "a market that Musk almost single-handedly created, seeing long before others the demand for clean-energy transportation that the world’s climate crisis would eventually propel." In other more specific news, Tesla has had to stop accepting orders for new Model S and Model x orders outside North America, according to electrek. Tesla is rumored to have a large backlog of orders. Demand obviously remains strong as more and more countries offer incentives for electric vehicle purchases. Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast We are still forecasting Tesla to return to the gap at $910 before year-end. $1,000 held again on Friday but the level is seeing increasing bombardment. The more a level is tested the weaker it becomes. We fear the next time it will go and that will signal a sharp move to $910. The stock is already well capped by the 9 and 21-day moving averages and only a break above $1063 will change our bearish stance. Tesla, daily chart

Cardano price is undergoing a retracement that will likely set the stage for a 38% run-up to $1.75. ADA needs to flip the $1.60 resistance barrier into support to reach its destination at $1.75. The transaction data and the recent uptick in average transaction size support the bullish thesis for the so-called “Ethereum killer. Cardano price has set up liquidity pools that are likely to be taken advantage of going forward. The most probable direction for ADA seems to be bullish, with on-chain metrics providing a tailwind to the claim. Cardano price to collect buy-stop liquidity Cardano price set up a double top at $1.75 on December 2 and retraced 32% to $1.13. A few days later, ADA created a double bottom at $1.13 and surged 18%. However, the recent upward correction will likely set the stage for the incoming bullishness to be sustained. A bounce off the $1.26 support level that sets up a new swing high above $1.47 will confirm the start of an uptrend. In this scenario, Cardano price will encounter the $1.60 resistance level. Flipping this barrier into a support floor will suggest that the buyers are taking control. This move will open the path for collecting the buy-stop liquidity resting above the $1.75 hurdle. In total, the climb would constitute a 38% gain. ADA/USDT 4-hour chart Supporting the bullish outlook for Cardano price is the recent uptick in the average transaction size from $23,877 to $83,704. This 250% spike in transfer size indicates that investors are interested in the price of ADA at the current levels and are actively pouring money into it. ADA average transaction size Moreover, IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model is another contributing factor to Cardano’s bullishness, and it shows that ADA will face little-to-no imminent resistance. Two significant clusters of underwater investors appear at $1.42 and $1.60. Here, roughly 381,000 and 441,000 addresses purchased nearly 4.32 billion and 5.25 billion ADA tokens, respectively. Therefore, an uptick in buying pressure that propels Cardano price into these clusters is likely to be met with selling momentum from holders trying to break even. Hence, ADA bulls need to clear these two levels to reach their destination at $1.75. ADA GIOM While things are looking good for Cardano price, there is a high chance ADA might retrace below $1.19 to collect liquidity. Investors can scoop the so-called “Ethereum killer” for a discount in this situation. However, if Cardano price produces a lower low below $1.12, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In this case, ADA could slip down to retest the 1.02 support floor.

One swallow doesn't make a summer, but when it comes to slower inflation pressure, there have been several. Will the narrative change soon? While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had been preaching his “transitory” doctrine for months, the thesis was obliterated once again after the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged by 6.8% year-over-year (YoY) on Dec. 10. Additionally, while the Commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) – which will be released on Dec. 14 – is likely provide a roadmap for inflation’s next move, signs of deceleration are already upon us.  For example, supply bottlenecks, port congestion, and rapidly rising commodity prices helped underwrite inflation’s ascent. However, with those factors now stagnant or reversing, inflationary pressures should decelerate in 2022. To explain, Deutsche Bank presented several charts that highlight 2021’s inflationary problems. However, whether it’s suppliers’ delivery times, backlogs of work, port congestion, bottleneck indices, or the cost of shipping and trucking, several inflationary indicators (excluding air cargo rates) have already peaked and rolled over.  Please see below: To that point, global manufacturing PMIs also signal a deceleration in input price pressures. With input prices leading output prices (like the headline CPI), the latter will likely showcase a similar slowdown if the former’s downtrend holds. Please see below: Source: IIF/Robin Brooks To explain, the colored lines above track the z-scores for prices paid within global manufacturing PMI reports. In a nutshell: regions were experiencing input inflation that was ~2 and ~4 standard deviations above their historical averages. However, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that all of them have consolidated or come down (the U.S. is in light blue). As a result, it’s another sign that peak input inflation could elicit peak output inflation. As mentioned, though, the commodity PPI is the most important indicator and if the data comes in hot on Dec. 14, all bets are off. However, the monthly weakness should be present since the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) declined by 11.2% in November.   Also noteworthy, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Economist, Ellen Zentner, also sees signs of a deceleration. She wrote: “We are seeing nascent signs that pipeline inflation pressures are easing – based on evidence from company earnings transcripts, ISM comments, Korea trade data, China's inflation data, the Fed's Beige Book, a department huddle with our equity analysts, and our own survey.” To explain, the green, gold, and blue lines above track Morgan Stanley’s core inflation estimates for emerging markets, developed markets, and global markets. If the predictions prove prescient, the 2022 inflation narrative could look a lot different than in 2021. However, please remember that inflation doesn’t abate without direct action from the Fed, and with a hawkish Fed known to upend the PMs (at least in the short- or medium run), the fundamental environment has turned against them. For example, when the Fed turns hawkish, commodities retreat, and with U.S. President Joe Biden showcasing heightened anxiety over inflation, more of the same should materialize over the medium term. To explain, Morgan Stanley initially projected no rate hikes in 2022. Now, Zentner expects “2 hikes in 2022, followed by 3 hikes plus a halt in reinvestments in 2023.” She wrote: “Before investors close out the year, we need to get past the FOMC's final meeting next week, and it comes with every opportunity for surprise. On Wednesday, we expect the Fed to move to a hawkish stance by announcing that it is doubling the pace of taper, highlighting continued inflation risks and no longer labeling high inflation as transitory, and showing a hawkish shift in the dot plot. We think this shift will shake out in a 2-hike median in 2022, followed by 3.5 hikes in 2023 and 3 hikes in 2024.” Furthermore, upping the hawkish ante, Goldman Sachs initially projected no rate hikes in 2022. Then, the team moved to three rate hikes in 2022 (June, September, and December 2022). Now, Goldman Sachs expects the FOMC to hike rates in May, July, and November 2022 – with another four hikes per year in 2023 and 2024.   The Fed’s Time to Shine “The FOMC is very likely to double the pace of tapering to $30bn per month at its December meeting next week, putting it on track to announce the last two tapers at the January FOMC meeting and to implement the last taper in March,” wrote Chief Economist Jan Hatzius. “We expect the Summary of Economic Projections to show somewhat higher inflation and lower unemployment. Our best guess is that the dots will show 2 hikes in 2022, 3 in 2023, and 4 in 2024, for a total of 9 (vs. 0.5 / 3 / 3 and a total of 6.5 in September). We think the leadership will prefer to show only 2 hikes in 2022 for now to avoid making a more dramatic change in one step, especially at a meeting when the FOMC is already doubling the taper pace. But if Powell is comfortable showing 3 hikes next year, then we would expect others to join him in a decisive shift in the dots in that direction.” Speaking of three hikes, the market-implied probability of three FOMC rate hikes in 2022 has risen to 96%. Please see below: For context, I’ve been warning for months that surging inflation would force the Fed’s hand. I wrote on Oct. 26: Originally, the Fed forecasted that it wouldn’t have to taper its asset purchases until well into 2022. However, surging inflation pulled that forecast forward. Now, the Fed forecasts that it won’t have to raise interest rates until well into 2023. However, surging inflation will likely pull that forecast forward as well. More importantly, though, while the PMs have remained upbeat in recent weeks, the forthcoming liquidity drain will likely shift the narrative over the medium term. The bottom line? While inflation shows signs of peaking, there is a vast difference between peak inflation and the Fed’s 2% annual target. As a result, even if a 6.8% YoY headline CPI was the precipice, it’s nothing to celebrate. Thus, the Fed needs to tighten monetary policy to control inflation, and anything less will likely re-accelerate the cost-push inflationary spiral.  To that point, with the precious metals extremely allergic to a hawkish Fed, I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions how the GDXJ ETF suffered following the 2013 taper. With 2022 Fed policy looking even more hawkish than in mid-2014, the latter’s downtrend should have plenty of room to run. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Nov. 10, and the scorching inflation print was largely ignored by investors. However, with the Fed poised to provide another dose of reality on Dec. 15, the recent volatility should persist. To that point, it’s important to remember that the S&P 500’s volatility increased materially after the Fed tapered in 2013. With stock market drawdowns bullish for the USD Index and bearish for the PMs, there are plenty of technical, fundamental, and sentiment factors brewing that favor the theme of ‘USD Index up, PMs down’ over the medium term. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDCHF looks for breakout The US dollar consolidates ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The pair is grinding for support above 0.9160 after it gave up most gains from the November rally. Overall sentiment remains positive as long as price action stays above the daily support at 0.9100. The current consolidation is a sign of accumulation from the long side. A close above the immediate resistance at 0.9270 would propel the greenback to the previous peak at 0.9360. On the downside, between 0.9160 and 0.9195 lies an important demand zone. US 30 to test previous peak The Dow Jones 30 inches lower as investors look ahead to Fed’s aggressive tapering. By lifting offers around the psychological level of 36000, a major resistance on the daily chart, the bulls may have turned sentiment around. As the index falls back in search of support, the RSI’s oversold situation may catch buyers’ attention. A break above 36350 may resume the uptrend. Otherwise, 35620 is the closest support where buyers could jump in for fear of missing out. Further down, 34800 would be a second line of defense. GER 40 seeks support The Dax 40 treads water as major central banks are set to update their policies. An initial surge above 15500 has prompted the bears to cover. Then the index found support at the 38.2% (15550) Fibonacci retracement level while an oversold RSI attracted buying interest. And that is a sign of underlying strength in the rebound. A bullish MA cross indicates an acceleration on the upside. A break above 15840 may send the price to the all-time high at 16300. In case of a deeper pullback, 15300 is a critical level to keep the rebound relevant.

https://www.midastouch-consulting.com/13122021-gold-recovery-ahead December 13th, 2021: The gold market is nearing the end of a difficult and very challenging year. Most precious metal investors must have been severely disappointed. Gold – Recovery ahead. Review 2021 started quite bullish, as the gold price climbed rapidly towards US$1,960 at the beginning of the year. In retrospect, however, this peak on January 6th also represented the high for the year! In the following 11.5 months, gold did not even come close to reaching these prices again. Instead, prices came under considerable pressure and only bottomed out at the beginning and then again at the end of March around US$1,680 with a double low. Interestingly, the low on March 8th at US$1,676 did hold until today. The subsequent recovery brought gold prices back above the round mark of US$1,900 within two months. But already on June 1st, another violent wave of selling started, which pushed gold prices down by US$150 within just four weeks. Subsequently, gold bulls attempted a major recovery in the seasonally favorable early summer phase. However, they failed three times in this endeavor at the strong resistance zone around US$1,830 to US$1,835. As a result, sufficient bearish pressure had built up again, which was then unleashed in the flash crash on August 9th with a brutal sell-off within a few minutes and a renewed test of the US$1,677 mark. Despite this complete washout, gold bulls were only able to recover from this shock with difficulty. Hence, gold traded sideways mainly between US$1,760 and US$1,815 for the following three months. It was not until the beginning of November that prices quickly broke out of this tenacious sideways phase and thus also broke above the 15-month downtrend-line. This was quickly followed by another rise towards US$1,877. However, and this is quite indicative of the ongoing corrective cycle since the all-time high in August 2020, gold prices made another hard U-turn within a few days and sold off even faster than they had risen before. Since this last sell-off from US$1,877 down to US$1,762, gold has been stuck and kind of paralyzed for three weeks, primarily trading in a narrow range between US$1,775 and US$1,785. Obviously, the market seems to be waiting for the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, gold has not been able to do much in 2021. Most of the time it has gone sideways and did everything to confuse participants. These treacherous market phases are the very most dangerous ones. Physical investors can easily sit through such a sideways shuffling. But leveraged traders had nothing to laugh about. Either the movements in gold changed quickly and abruptly or almost nothing happened for days and sometimes even weeks while the trading ranges were shrinking. Technical Analysis: Gold in US-Dollar Weekly Chart – Bottoming out around US$1,780? Gold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview Despite the 15-month correction, gold has been able to easily hold above the uptrend channel, which goes back to December 2015. The steeper uptrend channel that began in the summer of 2018 is also still intact and would only be broken if prices would fall below US$1,700. Support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 has held over the last three weeks too. The weekly stochastic oscillator is currently neutral but has been slowly tightening for months. Overall, gold is currently trading right in the middle of its two Bollinger bands on the weekly chart. Thus, the setup is neutral. However, bottoming out around US$1,780 has a slightly increased probability. Daily Chart – New buying signal Gold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of December 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview On the daily chart, gold has been searching for support around its slightly rising 200-day moving average (US$1,793) over the last three weeks. However, eye contact has been maintained, hence a recapturing of this important moving average is still quite possible. Despite the failed breakout in November, the current price action has not moved away from the downtrend-line. A further attack on this resistance thus appears likely. Encouragingly, the daily stochastic has turned up from its oversold zone and provides a new buy signal. In summary, the chances of a renewed recovery starting in the near future predominate on the daily chart. In the first step, such a bounce could run to around US$1,815. Secondly, the bulls would then have to clear the downtrend-line, which would release further upward potential towards US$1,830 and US$1,870. The very best case scenario might see gold being able to rise to the psychological number of US$1,900 in the next two to four months. On the downside however, the support between US$1,760 and US$1,780 must be held at all costs. Otherwise, the threat of further downward pressure towards US$1,720 and US$1,680 intensifies. Commitments of Traders for Gold – Recovery ahead Commitments of Traders for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader The commercial net short position in the gold futures market was last reported at 245,623 contracts sold short. Although the setup has somewhat improved due to the significant price decline in recent weeks, the overall constellation continues to move in neutral waters. There is still no clear contrarian bottleneck in the futures market, where professional traders should have reduced their net short positions to below 100,000 contracts at least. Until then, it would still be a long way from current levels, which could probably only happen with a price drop towards US$1,625. As long as this does not happen, any larger move up will probably have a hard time. In summary, the CoT report provides a neutral signal and thus stands in the way of a sustainable new uptrend. However, given the current futures market data, temporary recoveries over a period of about one to three months are currently possible. Sentiment for Gold – Recovery ahead Sentiment Optix for Gold as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader Sentiment for gold has been meandering in the neutral and not very meaningful middle zone for more than a year. Furthermore, a complete capitulation or at least very high pessimism levels are still missing to end the ongoing correction. Such a high pessimism was last seen in spring of 2019, whereupon gold was able to rise more than US$800 from the lows at US$1,265 to US$2,075 within 15 months. This means that in the big picture, sentiment analysis continues to lack total capitulation. This can only be achieved with deeply fallen prices. In the short term, however, the Optix for gold has almost reached its lows for the year. At the same time, german mainstream press is currently asking, appropriately enough, “Why doesn’t gold protect against inflation? This gives us a short-term contrarian buy signal, which should enable a recovery rally over coming one to three months. Seasonality for Gold – Recovery ahead Seasonality for Gold over the last 53-years as of December 12th, 2021. Source: Sentimentrader As so often in recent years, precious metal investors are being put to the test in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the past, however, there was almost always a final sell-off around the last FOMC meeting between mid-November and mid-December. And this was always followed by an important low and a trend reversal. This year, everything points to December 15th or 16th. Following the FOMC interest rate decision and the FOMC press conference, the start of a recovery would be extremely typical. Statistically, gold prices usually finish the last two weeks of the year with higher prices, because trading volume in the west world is very low over the holidays, while in Asia, and especially in China and India, trading is more or less normal. Also, the “tax loss selling” in mining stocks should be over by now. Overall, the seasonal component turns “very bullish” in a few days, supporting precious metal prices from mid-December onwards. Typically, January in particular is a very positive month for gold, but the favorable seasonal period lasts until the end of February. Macro update and Crack-up-Boom: US-Inflation as of November 30th, 2021. ©Holger Zschaepitz Last Friday, inflation in the U.S. was reported to have risen to 6.8% for the month of November. This is the fastest price increase since 1982, when Ronald Reagan was US president, and the US stock markets had started a new bull market after a 16-year consolidation phase. Today, by contrast, the financial markets have been on the central banks’ drip for more than a decade, if not more than two. The dependence is enormous and a turn away from the money glut is unthinkable. Nevertheless, the vast majority of market participants still allow themselves to be bluffed by the Fed and the other central banks and blindly believe the fairy tales of these clowns. The Global US-Dollar Short Squeeze However, while inflation figures worldwide are going through the roof due to the gigantic expansion of the money supply and the supply bottlenecks, the US-Dollar continues to rise at the same time. A nasty US-Dollar short squeeze has been building up since early summer. The mechanism behind this is not easy to understand and gold bugs in particular often have a hard time with it. From a global perspective, the US-Dollar is still the most important reserve currency and thus also the most important international medium of exchange as well as the most important store of value for almost all major countries. Completely independently of this, many of these countries still use their own currency domestically. International oil trade and numerous other commodities are also invoiced and settled in US-Dollar. For example, when France buys oil from Saudi Arabia, it does not pay in its own currency, EUR, but in USD. Through this mechanism, there has been a solid demand for US-Dollar practically non-stop for decades. The US-Dollar system The big risk of this “US-Dollar system”, however, is that many foreign governments and companies borrow in US-Dollar, even though most of their revenue is generated in the respective national currency. The lenders of these US-Dollar are often not even US institutions. Foreign lenders also often lend to foreign borrowers in dollars. This creates a currency risk for the borrower, a mismatch between the currency of their income and the currency of their debt. Borrowers do this because they have to pay lower interest rates for a loan in US-Dollar than in their own national currency. Sometimes dollar-denominated bonds and loans are also the only way to get liquidity at all. Thus, it is not the lender who bears the currency risk, but the borrower. In this way, the borrower is basically taking a short position against the US-Dollar, whether he wants to or not. Now, if the dollar strengthens, this becomes a disadvantage for him, because his debt increases in relation to his income in the local currency. If, on the other hand, the US-Dollar weakens, the borrower is partially relieved of debt because his debt falls in relation to his income in the local currency. Turkish lira since December 2020 as of December 13th, 2021.©Holger Zschaepitz Looking, for example, at the dramatic fall of the Turkish lira, one can well imagine the escalating flight from emerging market currencies into the US-Dollar. Since the beginning of the year, Turks have lost almost 50% of their purchasing power against the US-Dollar. A true nightmare. Other emerging market currencies such as the Argentine peso, the Thai baht or even the Hungarian forint have also come under significant pressure this year. On top, the Evergrande bankruptcy and the collapse of the real estate bubble in China may also have contributed significantly to this smoldering wildfire. All in all, the “US-Dollar short squeeze” may well continue despite a technically heavily overbought situation. Sooner or later, however, the Federal Reserve will have to react and row back again. Otherwise, the strength of the US-Dollar will suddenly threaten a deflationary implosion in worldwide stock markets and in the entire financial system. The global house of cards would not survive such shock waves. The tapering is “nearish” It is therefore highly likely that the Fed will soon postpone the so-called “tapering” and the “interest rate hikes” until further notice. To explain this, they will surely come up with some gibberish with complicated-sounding words. All in all, an end to loose monetary policy is completely unthinkable. Likewise, the supply bottlenecks will remain for the time being. This means that inflation will continue to be fueled by both monetary and scarcity factors and, on top of that, by the psychological inflationary spiral. In these crazy times, investors in all sectors will have to patiently endure temporary volatility and the accompanying sharp pullbacks. Conclusion: Gold – Recovery ahead With gold and silver, you can protect yourself well against any scenario. In the medium and long term, however, this does not necessarily mean that precious metal prices will always track inflation one-to-one and go through the roof in the coming years. Most likely, the exponential expansion of the money supply will continue and accelerate. Hence, significantly higher gold and silver prices can then be expected. If, on the other hand, the system should implode, gold and silver will be able to play out their monetary function to the fullest and one will be glad to own them when almost everything else must be written down to zero. In the bigger picture, however, gold and silver fans will have to remain patient for the time being, because the clear end of the months-long correction has not yet been sealed. Rather, the most important cycle in the gold market should deliver an important low approximately every 8 years. The last time this happened was in December 2015 at US$1,045. This means that the correction in the gold market could continue over the next one or even two years until the trend reverses and the secular bull market finally continues. In the short term, however, the chances of a recovery in the coming weeks into the new year and possibly even into spring are quite good. But it should only gradually become clearer after the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday what will happen next. A rally towards US$1,815 and US$1,830 has a clearly increased probability. Beyond that, US$1,870 and in the best case even US$1,910 could possibly be reached in February or March. For this to happen, however, the bulls would have to do a lot of work. Analysis initially written and published on on December 13th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on December 13th, 2021. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. By Florian Grummes|December 13th, 2021|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, gold mining, Gold neutral, Silver, The bottom is in|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets.

Global vs US Corporate Earnings: On the topic of US vs global equities, a key reason for the extended trend of US beating global equities has been the long-term cycles in relative strength of *earnings*.   The chart below shows that US earnings have outgrown global peers substantially over the past decade. Interestingly enough it follows a previous decade of global earnings outgrowing US earnings.   Basically this lens presents a glimpse of the fundamental trends underpinning the price trends that have been fairly extensively documented.   Thus one takeaway is that this long-term cycle in fundamentals will need to turn in order to reinforce any turn in price. But also of significance is value: I would argue that the superior profitability and earnings growth of US companies is already in the price - and then some. So there is some nuance to this puzzle…Key point: US corporate earnings have outgrown global peers over the past decade.       NOTE: this post first appeared on our NEW Substack: https://topdowncharts.substack.com/       Best regards, Callum Thomas Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts   Follow us on: LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts

With more than a trillion-dollar market cap, bitcoin is now in an echelon where regulation would be fearful to intervene harshly, since a bitcoin crash would affect other markets. In a way, the last pillar is cemented for there to be little risk to think of a world without bitcoin. That being said, even if only minor, some bitcoin exposure is now widely accepted as a wise decision of portfolio management. We share three ways of purchase that we find conservative. We aim to demystify the saga of bitcoins acquisition risk due to its volatility. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, zooming out, away from the noise: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of December 14th, 2021. Risk is related to size. Suppose you buy a small enough amount alongside your overall market exposure, small enough that you can afford assets even to go to zero, then the risk is minimized. Would it be nice to have picked up a few thousand bitcoins when it was available at five dollars or a few hundred at fifty, certainly! Nevertheless, thinking long term and with volatility now being much less, the more bitcoin had settled in and is more widely accepted, even buying here now at US$47,000 is just fine. What we find less attractive is not owning any. And after that initial purchase, to add at price dips in bitcoin to grow a position size over time would be a possible extension of such a strategy. The quarterly chart above shows how bitcoin has always reached new all-time highs again, and there is no fundamental or technical evidence that this behavior should change. BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, buy low and hold: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 14th, 2021. Another way to participate in the bitcoin market if you already have some exposure is buying in tiny increments when markets seem low. This means buying after one of bitcoin’s steep declines and add this way to your long-term exposure. The weekly chart above shows with a green box an approximated entry zone. We used ABC pattern recognition, volume profile, Fibonacci retracements, action-reaction models, and inter-market relationships along with other tools to zoom into such a low-risk and high success probability zone. Once such a zone is established, we go a time frame lower. In this case, the daily time frame, to fine-tune entries. Therefore, it increases probabilities and reduce entry risk even further. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, low-risk entries with quad exit: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of December 14th, 2021. Our third option presented is a more active way in market participation. It is refined in its form to suit more experienced traders to soothe trading psychology. In addition, it keeps entry risk to a minimum and maximizes profits. We openly share the underlying principles in our free Telegram channel. Alongside, we post real-time entries and exits for educational purposes. This approach has a sophisticated exit strategy (quad exits). It allows for partial profit-taking and expansive position size building over time to maximize one’s bitcoin exposure without added risks. The daily chart above focuses on two supply zones (yellow horizontal lines). The zones got identified by volume profile analysis (green histogram to the right side of the chart). We want the price to build a double bottom price pattern at one of these levels to enter a long position. We have already retraced from recent all-time highs in a typical percentage fashion for bitcoins trading behavior. Consequently, a turning point here is highly likely. Three ways to buy bitcoin: Overwhelm often stems from a lack of choices. After reading this chart book, we hope that those readers who feel intimidated experience a sigh of relief. Like gold, bitcoin is a store of value. We find a good likelihood that bitcoin might surpass the ten trillion gold market cap. Consequently, your investment right now has a fair chance to grow by a factor of ten or more.  After acquiring bitcoin, you can store your purchase in a small cold wallet, the size of a USB stick. Tuck it away, just like you do your precious metal coins. Buying now for the long term is still stepping in front of most market players which have succumbed to their doubts and procrastination. Consequently, it allows for this investment to be early, anticipating a likely change of the future regarding payment methods and store of value vehicles. Therefore, an asset with significant growth potential (=attractive risk/reward-ratio). Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 14th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|

S&P 500 gave up premarket gains, and closed on a weak note – driven by tech while value pared the intraday downswing somewhat. Market breadth still deteriorated, though – but credit markets didn‘t crater. Stocks look more cautious than bonds awaiting tomorrow‘s Fed, which is a good sign for the bulls across the paper and real assets. Sure, the ride is increasingly getting bumpy (and will get so even more over the coming weeks), but we haven‘t topped in spite of the negative shifts mentioned yesterday. The signs appear to be in place, pointing to a limited downside in the pre-FOMC positioning, but when the dust settles, more than a few markets are likely to shake off the Fed blues. I continue doubting the Fed would be able to keep delivering on its own hyped inflation fighting projections – be it in faster taper or rate raising. Crude oil is likewise just hanging in there and ready – the Fed must be aware of real economy‘s fragility, which is what Treasuries are in my view signalling with their relative serenity. We‘ve travelled a long journey from the Fed risk of letting inflation run unattented, to the Fed making a policy mistake in tightening the screws too much. For now, there‘s no evidence of the latter, of serious intentions to force that outcome. Lip service (intention to act and keep reassessing along the way) would paid to the inflation threat tomorrow, harsh words delivered, and the question is when would the markets see through that, and through the necessity to bring the punch bowl back a few short months down the road. As stated yesterday: (…) Global economic activity might be peaking here, and liquidity around the world is shrinking already – copper isn‘t too fond of that. The Fed might attempt to double the monthly pace of tapering to $30bn next, but I doubt how far they would be able to get at such a pace. Inflation and contraction in economic growth are going to be midterms‘ hot potatoes, and monetary policy change might be attempted. Tough choices for the Fed missed the boat in tapering by more than a few months. 2022 is going to be tough as we‘ll see more tapering, market-forced rate hikes (perhaps as many as 2-3 – how much closer would yield curve control get then?), higher taxes and higher oil prices. Stocks are still likely to deliver more gains in spite of all the negative divergences to bonds or other indices (hello, Russell 2000). Copper would be my indicator as to how far further we have to go before GDP growth around the world peaks. Oil is ready for strong medium-term gains, and I‘m not looking for precious metals to yield much ground. Silver though is more vulnerable unless inflation returns to the spotlight. Cryptos do likewise have issues extending gains sharply. All in all, volatility is making a return, and it isn‘t a good news for the bulls. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 ran into headwinds, and fresh ATHs will really take a while to happen, but we‘re likely to get there still. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t have a really bad day – just a cautious one. Interestingly, lower yields didn‘t help tech, and that means a sectoral rebalancing in favor of value is coming, and that the current bond market strength will be sold into. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals held up fine yesterday, but some weakness into tomorrow shouldn‘t be surprising. I look for it to turn out only temporary, and not as a start of a serious downswing. Crude Oil Crude oil continues struggling at $72, but the downside looks limited – I‘m not looking for a flush into the low or mid $60s. Copper In spite of the red candle(s), copper looks to be stopping hesitating, and is readying an upswing. I look for broader participation in it, and that includes commodities and silver. The run up to tomorrow‘s announcement would be telling. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bottom searching goes on, yesterday‘s downside target was hit, and the bulls are meekly responding today. I don‘t think the bottom is in at $46K BTC or $3700s ETH. Summary Risk-off mood is prevailing in going for tomorrow‘s FOMC – the expectations seem leaning towards making a tapering / tightening mistake. While headwinds are stiffening, we haven‘t topped yet in stocks or commodities, but the road would be getting bumpier as stated yesterday. Select commodities and precious metals are already feeling the pinch late in today‘s premarket trading, but there is no sending them to bear markets. Get ready for the twin scourge of persistent inflation and slowdown in growth to start biting increasingly more – just-in producer price index (9.6% YoY, largest ever) confirms much more inflation is in the pipeline, and the Fed would still remain behind the curve in its actions. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

GameStop stock fell nearly 14% on Monday to $136.88. Retail and meme stocks suffered quite sharp falls on Monday. AMC followed GME by falling to $23.24 for a 15% loss. The rise of the meme stock has been a unique feature of this investing year over any others with a special set of once-in-a-generation circumstances elevating many ordinary joes into stock trading stars. The first was GameStop (GME), which made possibly more headlines than any other stock in history. I confess to not doing a lot of research on this, but when you overhear numerous discussions in the local pub about the phenomenon, you know it must be serious. AMC then joined the party, and together the pair became the poster child stocks for the meme stock revolution. We even had the perfect pantomime villain in the Robinhood saga. Regardless, the retail investor is now a powerful force in the stock market, but that power has begun to wane as we approach the final finishing straight of the year. Now retail investors who got in early and held their nerve are being rewarded with yearly gains of 626% for GameStop (GME) and 996% for AMC. So any discussion of a collapse needs to be put into context. The fact does remain though that both stocks are actually well off their 2021 peaks. GameStop shed nearly 14% on Monday, closing at $136.88. There is a slight contradiction to the underlying trend with in-store attendance surely surging, definitely in my local store ahead of the holidays. GameStop (GME) chart, 15 minute GameStop (GME) stock news There was no underlying fundamental news. Rather a catalyst of market weakness and general risk aversion hurt this one. GME and AMC are both momentum names, and when that slows the results can be shocking. GameStop (GME) stock forecast The big catalyst was more technical in our view. In the absence of fundamental news flow, GameStop has been going through support levels like a knife through butter. $167 was a big level, marking the lows going back to September. Cracking below that level was the direct result of breaking the 200-day moving average. Monday saw a move to break $146, marking new six-month lows. GameStop now sits on the last key support before $118. GME shares closed at $136.88, though the volume-weighted average price for the year is $138. Below, the volume begins to strongly lighten, meaning less price discovery, meaning a likely move to $118. This amounts to a low volume fall. I know most readers do not like to hear bearish arguments, especially in some favourite name like GameStop and AMC, but we can only comment on the price action and trends we see. For now, bears are definitely in control. A break of $167 resistance would change the picture. GME 1-day chart

  The inflation beast is growing stronger. Unfortunately for gold bulls, we cannot say the same about the yellow metal. Is sacrifice going on tomorrow? “Woe to you, oh earth and sea, for the Devil sends the beast with wrath, because he knows the time is short (...). Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast,” says the Bible. The current number of the beast is not 6.66%, but 6.8% - this is how high the CPI annual inflation rate was in November. The number came above expectations and implies further acceleration in inflation from 6.2% in October. It was also the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982, as the chart below indicates. The latest BLS report on inflation also shows that consumer inflation rose 0.8% on a monthly basis after rising 0.9% in October. The core CPI rate increased 0.5% in November, following a 0.6-percent increase in the previous month. On an annual basis, it jumped 5% after a 4.6% increase in October (see the chart above). So, as , “hell and fire was spawned to be released”. Indeed, November readings clearly falsify central banks’ narrative about transitory inflation (which was already partially abandoned) and confirm my claim that inflation will stay with us for longer. As a reminder, my bet is that we will see the peak of inflation no earlier than somewhere in Q1 2022. Actually, it might be even a bit later, as the Omicron coronavirus variant could contribute to supply disruptions and add to inflationary pressure. What’s important here is to remember that current inflation is not merely a supply problem. It’s true that the energy index is surging, but the shelter index is also rising, and it has even surpassed the pre-pandemic level, as the chart below shows. So, inflation has a really broad nature, which makes perfect sense, as it was caused by a boost in the money supply and strong demand. The BLS report confirms this view: “The monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase was the result of broad increases in most component indexes, similar to last month.”   Implications for Gold The inflationary beast not only reared its ugly head, but it started roaring and growing stronger. The CPI inflation rate jumped to 6.8% in November, and it’s probably not the final number! Actually, it could have been even higher if the Omicron variant of coronavirus had not emerged, slowing down some expenditures. What does this acceleration imply for the gold market? Well, one week ago I wrote: “My bet is that inflation will stay elevated or that it could actually intensify further. In any case, the persistence of high inflation could trigger some worries and boost the safe-haven demand for gold.” Indeed, inflationary pressure intensified further, which pushed gold prices higher, as the chart below shows. However, I also expressed concerns about the Fed’s reaction to high inflation and its implications for gold: I’m afraid that gold bulls’ joy would be – to use a trendy word – transitory. The December FOMC meeting will be probably hawkish and will send gold prices down. Given the persistence of inflation, the Fed is likely to turn more hawkish and accelerate the pace of tapering. The higher than expected inflation rate in November, and a very modest gold’s reaction to it, only strengthen my fears that tomorrow could be a great day for monetary hawks and a sad day for gold. Given such high inflation, the Fed has simply no choice and must accelerate the pace of the tapering and hiking cycle. So, to paraphrase Iron Maiden, sacrifice is going on tomorrow. On the other hand, gold often bottomed out in December historically (in recent years, it did so in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019). We’ll find out soon whether my fears were justified! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Bitcoin continues to cling to its 200-day simple moving average, calming the entire crypto market. In the past 24 hours, the total value of all cryptocurrencies rose 3.3% to $2.19 trillion. The Fear and Greed Index rose 7 points to 28, which it was a week ago. Bitcoin has stabilised near the $48K level, keeping almost equal chances for gains and declines. A meaningful move away from the 200-day moving average line in one direction or the other promises to kick-start a strong momentum. Today the financial markets are wary of the words of the Fed Chairman and the comments of the FOMC. Deviations from expectations can affect the whole financial world, including bitcoin. And through it, the entire spectrum of cryptocurrencies. Ether has been showing close to zero momentum since the start of the day, remaining at $3850. On the chart, it is easy to see the activation of the bears near the 50-day moving average: a sharp breakdown in early December when this line became a resistance. The significant exception was the DOGE. The coin soared more than 40% after Musk tweeted that Tesla was considering selling merchandise for this coin. The explosive growth here is more of a secondary effect of its low liquidity and knee-jerk reaction to the message of Twitter’s chief influencer. Overall, there is also a downtrend here, which has taken 40% off the price from November 8th. However, taking a step back, it is still worth remaining cautious about expectations from the Fed and market dynamics after the announcement. Bitcoin’s technical support and Ether’s attempts to hold near $4000 are more likely to be buyers’ last hope of maintaining the illusion of a bull market. Overall, however, cryptocurrencies have been in a downtrend for more than a month now. These are not sharp dips and short squeezes but methodical selling by funds, as they are very similar to the dynamics of traditional markets. Other coins, where there are few market professionals, have a general downward trend.  

Equities 2021-12-15 10:30 Summary:  If you have tried to buy, well, basically anything, you've probably noticed that the shelves in the stores aren't as full as they used to be. With the Christmas shopping season approaching fast, there is a very real chance that Santa will have a hard time getting everyone what they want. In this article, we will look at how supply constraints will be this year's Grinch, how they will steal Christmas and how you can counteract them. It’s not news that the global supply chains are challenged, but how did it get here and what will it mean for your Christmas presents? In this article, we will look into how supply constraints came about and how they will impact Christmas shopping. “We’ve all become accustomed to the fact that when you order something online, you get it delivered within a few days. That system is broken down and we have to be much more patient now,” says Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategies at Saxo Group. Exceptional demand challenges the physical limits of the worldOne of the main drivers behind the supply constraints is a sudden imbalance between supply and demand, which is an effect of the COVID-19 breakout in the early 2020s. On one hand, a collapse of the global economy was expected, and on the other, governments across the globe started supporting both businesses and people by handing out money. The global economic collapse in large part didn’t happen and the world went into a lockdown, which meant that people suddenly had money on their hands but couldn’t travel or go to restaurants, so instead they started buying goods and commodities.“I normally tend to tell the Danish media that it all began when we got our holiday check paid out from the government, because then we all went on a spending spree. Restaurants and cinemas were closed, so we went online and went shopping for consumer goods. So, from having cancelled lots of orders, expecting a sharp decline in economic activity due to the pandemic, companies suddenly had to put in massive new amounts of orders and the system couldn't cope,” says Hansen.In a world where global activity was already historically high, an increase in demand like this puts a lot of strain on the physical parts of being able to supply people with what they want. “When you have such a big shift on the demand side, then when we talk about supply, it's about the physical world - ports, container ships, available containers - and its generally about infrastructure, which takes time to build out and thus can’t make as big a leap as the demand side, because we are talking about building big physical things,” says Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategies at Saxo Group. The system, which Hansen is referring to is the logistics sector, where the physical limits of the world are challenged by rapid technological development. “I think what this whole supply chain issue has shown is that everything we're talking about is basically constraints we observe in the physical world, and if there's something we have seen during this pandemic, it’s a phenomenal rally in technology stocks and companies that operate in the online world. When I travel around and talk to clients, I show this chart where you can see that since the great financial crisis, technology companies’ revenue and profits have just taken off like a rocket relative to the physical world, the normal world, the one we are in, and these supply constraints are once again teaching us that a lot of the investment opportunities will be in the online world,” says Garnry. In essence, this means that because governments feared an economic collapse, they handed out money to people and companies who then used the money to buy more goods than usual, like e.g. technological devices and gadgets, which pushed the limits of the physical ships, ports, trucks and roads. In such a situation, the last thing you would want is to clog up the system, so the pressure on the physical limits will be even tougher. Enter Ever Given.The bottleneckWinding the clock back to March this year, one of the largest container ships in the world, Ever Given, was passing through the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most important supply routes. Here it was hit by strong winds that forced the ship to turn, which resulted in the ship getting stuck across the canal. Some 400 container ships were queued up for six days, creating not only shipping delays but also further bottlenecks when the ships arrived at ports at the same time, increasing the pressure on the physical world. So now you had governments handing out money, a global population eager to buy goods, ports that are already overworked and a global trading route which is closed down, halting the usual flow of goods from East to West. A shortage of peopleIt’s probably fair to think that such bottlenecks shouldn’t take long to fix as long as everything is operating as it should. But here it’s necessary to understand two things. The first thing is that on the sea, transportation of cargo is constantly becoming bigger, but on land, this isn’t the case. “Containers ships are getting bigger and bigger, but you still need one truck to move the container to and from the harbour. So, it’s an increasing challenge that these ships roll in and need to be offloaded and loaded in a relatively short time. This has become a major obstacle, like we have seen in Felixstowe in the UK, in Los Angeles and even in Rotterdam,” Hansen says.At the same time, there’s a historic shortage of truck drivers around the globe. In the US alone, it’s estimated that 80,000 additional truck drivers are needed to handle the number of containers that could be delivered at the country’s ports. The reasons for this are many, but it’s an important factor in the supply constraints, and one that isn’t easily fixed.Generally, truck drivers have been in short supply since the mid-2000s. In addition, many economies around the world work at close to full capacity, which usually allows people with lower-paying jobs – like truckers – to move up to higher-paying and more attractive jobs, due to increased demand for workers. Also, governmental support during COVID may have provided some drivers with money they’ve been able to use to get better jobs. “You need a lot of truck drivers, which has been another issue, as there’s a shortage of truck drivers. This is mainly because some of them have found other jobs during the lockdown, where wages are rising in other industries as well, so it's difficult to find all the truck drivers needed to move all these containers. That means that you suddenly end up with a harbour full of empty containers stacking up, which takes space away from the filled ones that need to come in,” says Hansen. So, along with increased demand putting the physical world under pressure, and the blockage of an important trading route, there are also not enough people and trucks to handle the containers when ships do roll in, all adding to the delays and difficulties of moving things around the world.COVID closuresWhen trying to explain how we ended up with supply constraints, it’s impossible not to mention the COVID-19 virus, because it has had a significant impact. As previously mentioned, one reaction to the pandemic has been governmental stimulus, which has created a number of ripple effects. More concretely, COVID-19 has affected operations at ports around the globe – especially in China, one of the world’s key production hubs. “The Chinese zero-case policy on COVID-19 is making it difficult to keep supply chains efficient, because when there’s a new series of cases in China, they tend to close down pretty large parts of the particular region where the cases are happening,” says Garnry.The shortage to rule them allStruggling to ship goods around the world is a major challenge. But struggling to supply the most crucial component in today’s technology goods is arguably a much bigger issue. Semiconductors – also called integrated circuits or microchips – are used in a wide range of goods and products, including electronics. The semiconductor shortage – like the others we’ve described – has been caused by a variety of snowball effects, including bad weather in Texas, trade disputes between China and the US, and especially the COVID-19 pandemic. But this shortage is more significant, constraining sales of some of our most in-demand goods. In that sense, the semiconductor shortage is the real Grinch, which will steal the most popular Christmas presents even before they’re produced. “The semiconductor shortage is impacting everything from Nintendo to car production and PlayStations. iPhone production has also been cut by as many as 10 million units due to these constraints. So, even if you wish for it, and you want it and it's cool, you can't get it,” says Garnry.And if you’re wishing for a new car, semiconductors can also spoil the day. Car manufacturers, who buy lower margin semiconductors, were late in ordering chips after the economy didn’t collapse due to the pandemic. The semiconductor industry had already found willing buyers thanks to high demand for graphics cards for gaming and crypto, as well as chips used in data centres and computers. Car manufacturers were therefore put at the back of the line and have ever since scrambled to get priority, causing car production to be reduced due to lack of semiconductors, meaning that there are a lot of cars that are almost ready to be shipped, but can’t be because they are missing this one component,” says Garnry. Product centralisationLooking at the different reasons why supply chains have ended up in the pickle they’re in, one of them also points to a potential solution, which would be a massive shift in the production strategy that companies have pursued for a number of years. “If you're a large consumer goods company today and your main markets are the US and Europe, you must be contemplating whether you should have production closer to your end markets,” says Garnry. He adds:“Not too long ago, we had a very engaging conversation with Jens Bjørn Andersen, CEO of DSV, and we talked about this situation. In the financial industry, we always suggest that investors should make sure to  diversify their portfolio. But for whatever reason, this concept seems to have escaped the manufacturing industry when you look at their portfolio of production. Said in another way – production companies have sent huge amounts of their global production to China and that really hurts when you have disruptions like these. This could lead us to see more fragmented production and that manufacturing companies begin to diversify their supply chains. My bet is that in the future, we will see some production come back to main consumer markets in the western world.” How to un-steal Christmas from the supply GrinchWhile Garnry’s point about production closer to main markets is relevant, it’s a long-term solution that won’t help this year’s Christmas shopping. For now, we’ll just have to get used to it being more difficult to get what we want.“We need to get the balance back in terms of supply and demand. Until then, we're going to have to live with some disruptions for a number of years and that will create these temporary obstructions in various places in the world,” says Hansen. Garnry adds that the bottlenecks will solve themselves: “We will get there, but it will take some time,” he says.So, what do we do this Christmas? While the Grinch may steal your car, iPhone and PlayStation, Hansen thinks we should look at our wish list and wish for something the Grinch can’t steal – and where we can do good. “Regarding Christmas, think a bit alternatively. The global economy came back very strongly, but there was a whole area which was left in the dark and that was the service sector. So, spare a thought for them if you can't get the goods you are looking for. Wish for a gift card to the cinema or to a restaurant or to some local experience. They're not going to run out of supplies and could use it,” he says.If you want to read more about how to invest in the logistics sector during these challenges, take a look at this article. If you want to get inspiration for more investments in the logistics sector, take a look at Garnry’s theme basket here.

S&P 500 declined on poor PPI data, with financials virtually the only sector closing in the black. Rising yields and risk-off credit markets, that‘s the answer – markets are afraid of a more hawkish Fed than what they expect already. While the central bank will strive to project a decisive image, I‘m looking for enough leeway to be left in, and packaged in incoming data flexibility and overall uncertainty. Good for them that the fresh spending initiative hasn‘t yet passed. Still, I‘m looking for the Fed to be forced during 2022 to abruptly reverse course, and bring back the punch bowl. Treasuries look serene, and aren‘t anticipating sharply higher rates in the near term – not even inflation expectations interpreted higher PPI as a sign that inflation probably hasn‘t peaked yet. This isn‘t the first time inflation is being underestimated – and beaten down commodities (with copper bearing the brunt in today‘s premarket) reflect that likewise. Only cryptos are bucking the cautious entry to the Fed policy decision, and decreasing liquidity, in what can still turn out as a lull before another selling attempt. I think that the overly hawkish Fed expectations are misplaced, and that the risk-on assets would reverse the prior weakness – both today and in the days immediately following, which is when the real post-Fed move emerges. Odds are that it would still be up across the board. Yes, I‘m looking for the Fed speak to be interpreted as soothing – as one that would still result in market perceptions that the real bite isn‘t here yet, or doesn‘t look too real yet. Big picture is that public finances need inflation to make the debt load manageable, and that ample room to flex hawkish muscles isn‘t there (as retail data illustrate). As I wrote in yesterday‘s summary: (…) Risk-off mood is prevailing in going for tomorrow‘s FOMC – the expectations seem leaning towards making a tapering / tightening mistake. While headwinds are stiffening, we haven‘t topped yet in stocks or commodities, but the road would be getting bumpier as stated yesterday. Select commodities and precious metals are already feeling the pinch late in today‘s premarket trading, but there is no sending them to bear markets. Get ready for the twin scourge of persistent inflation and slowdown in growth to start biting increasingly more – just-in producer price index (9.6% YoY, largest ever) confirms much more inflation is in the pipeline, and the Fed would still remain behind the curve in its actions. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 had a weak day, but the dip was being bought – there is fledgling accumulation regardless of deteriorating internals, and tech selloff continuing. Credit Markets HYG even staged a late day rally – bonds are in a less panicky mood, not anticipating overly hawkish Fed message. And that‘s good for the markets that sold off a bit too much. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downside appears limited here, and today‘s premarket downswing has been largely erased already. Much catching up to do on the upside, just waiting for the catalyst. Crude Oil Crude oil is on the defensive now – the weak session yesterday didn‘t convince me. I‘m though still looking for higher prices even as today‘s premarket took black gold below $70. Still not looking for a flush into the low or mid $60s. Copper Copper upswing didn‘t materialize, and worries about the economic outlook keep growing. The sideways trend keeps holding for now though, still. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum bottom searching goes on, yesterday‘s downside target was hit, but the bottom (at $46K BTC or $3700s ETH) might not be in just yet. Cryptos remain in wait and see mode. Summary Bears aren‘t piling in before today‘s FOMC – the Fed‘s moves will though likely be interpreted as not overly hawkish. Given more incoming signs of slowing economy, the window of opportunity to tighten, is pretty narrow anyway. Why take too serious a chance? Yes, I‘m looking for the weakness in real assets to turn out temporary, and for stocks not to be broken by inflation just yet – as argued for in the opening part of today‘s analysis. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Microsoft stock falls over 3% on Tuesday ahead of Fed. Tech stocks suffer as rate hikes hit high growth names. MSFT is close to all-time highs, volume remains elevated. Microsoft (MSFT) is pausing for breath near all-time highs as the market awaits Fed taper talk Wednesday. While high growth stocks may wait in trepidation, more established names such as Microsoft and Apple (AAPL) have continued to attract fresh investors. High growth usually means low profits, but this is certainly not the case for Microsoft or Apple. Indeed, recent research from Goldman Sachs demonstrated the divergence between mega tech names this year versus unprofitable tech names. Unprofitable tech names are down circa 20% for the year, while mega tech is up nearly 30%. The logic is sound – higher rates disproportionally hit high growth rates. By comparison, established mega tech are cash cows that offer huge profits, huge leverage, huge purchasing power and operate in a quasi-monopolistic stance whereby inflationary pressures can be passed on to consumers. GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT outperformance versus Nasdaq since the start of the year Microsoft stock news It used to be the case that consumer staples were the de facto defensive stocks that investors retreated to in times of stress. After all, we all need food for survival. Utility stocks also were well-used defensive mechanisms for much the same logic, basic necessity. However, with the advent of mobile technology, essentials are now seen as communication and news stocks. Big tech fulfills all these roles. Our smartphone is a means of communication, a means of news service, television, shopping, etc. We now view many big tech services as essential and ones we cannot live without. Combine this with huge revenue, in many cases monopolistic qualities, and piles of cash, and you have the perfect defensive stocks for the 21st century. This is why Apple actually appreciated during last week's Omicron sell-off. What we are currently seeing is high growth meme names taking a disproportionate hit ahead of the Fed. Think Tesla down again, and AMC and GME collapsing. The Nasdaq index was the underperformer on Tuesday. Microsoft stock forecast $318 is our key short-term pivot. Already MSFT has put in a lower high, albeit just below all-time highs. A break of $318 sets a lower low and puts a short-term trend in motion. We specify short term here. This is what most of you likely are interested in. The longer-term trend remains bullish, fundamentals are strong, earnings power is consistent and defensive qualities mentioned above can shield it from inflationary pressures. However, there are some bearish points to note for short-term swing traders. We have a decling MACD and RSI. We also have bearish divergences from both indicators, significantly so in the case of the RSI. Based on this we feel $318 is likely to break, and below we see support at $300. We base this not only on the round number theory but on the volume profile. Volume means price acceptance and support. MSFT 1-day chart

USDCHF struggles for bids The US dollar bounced higher on solid jobs performance in October. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a deceleration in the sell-off. Sellers have started to cover after a close above the immediate support at 0.9170. However, the initial momentum was held back after the RSI shot into the overbought territory. The bulls will need to lift offers around 0.9225, which sits on the 30-day moving average to attract more followers. On the downside, a break below 0.9100 may trigger a fall towards 0.9020. USDCAD tests supply area The Canadian dollar claws back some losses after Canada’s unemployment rate shrank to 6.7% in October. The US dollar’s break above 1.2430 has put the bears under pressure. An overbought RSI has put a limit on the upside as intraday buyers take profit. The bulls are making an attempt at 1.2500. This level was a key support on the daily chart and has now turned into a resistance. A bullish breakout may pave the way for a bullish reversal. A fall below 1.2375 would put the demand zone over 1.2300 at the test once again. US 30 rises as risk appetite grows The Dow Jones 30 finds support from the passage of the $1 trillion US infrastructure bill. The index saw an acceleration to the upside after it rallied above the previous peak at 35600. Sentiment remains bullish with short-term price action grinding up along a rising trendline. 36600 would be the next target. The RSI’s overbought situation has led to a temporary retracement which could be an opportunity for trend followers to stake in. 36070 on the trendline is the first level where we can expect a rebound.

  Inflation is high and doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon. However, gold is not rising. The question is – what does the Fed have to do with it? Inflation is not merely transitory, and that’s a fact. Why then isn’t gold rallying? Isn’t it an inflation-hedge? Well, it is - but gold is a lazy employee. It shows up at work only when inflation is high and accelerating; otherwise, it refuses to get its golden butt up and do its job. All right, fine, but inflation is relatively high! So, there have to be other reasons why gold remains stuck around $1,800. First of all, central banks are shifting their monetary policy. Global easing has ended, global tightening is coming! Actually, several central banks have already tightened their stance. For example, among developed countries, New Zealand, Norway, and South Korea have raised interest rates. Brazil, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, Romania, and Russia are in the club of monetary policy hawks as well. Even the bank of England could hike its policy rate this year, while the Fed has only announced tapering of its asset purchases. So, although central banks will likely maintain their dovish bias and real interest rates will stay negative, the era of epidemic ultra-loose monetary policy is coming to an end. We all know that neither the interest rates nor the central banks’ balance sheets will return to the pre-pandemic level, but the direction is clear: central banks are starting tightening cycles, no matter how gentle and gradual they will be. This means that monetary policy is no longer supportive of gold. The same applies to fiscal policy. It remains historically lax despite fiscal stimulus being pulled back. Even though Uncle Sam ran a fiscal deficit of $2.8 trillion in fiscal year 2021 - almost three times that of fiscal year 2019 ($0.98 trillion) - it was 12% lower than in fiscal year 2020 ($3.1 trillion). This implies that the fiscal policy is also tightening (despite the fact that it remains extravagantly accommodative), which is quite a headwind for gold. Investors should always look at directional changes, not at absolute levels. What’s more, we are still far from stagflation. We still experience both high inflation and fast GDP growth, as well as an improving labor market. As a reminder, the unemployment rate declined from 5.2% in August to 4.8% in September. The fact that the labor market continues to hold up relatively well is the reason why the so-called Misery Index, i.e., the sum of inflation and unemployment rates, remains moderate despite high inflation. It amounted to 10.19 in September, much below the range of 12.5-20 seen during the Great Inflation of the 1970s (see the chart below). So, the dominant narrative is about both inflation and growth. When people got vaccines, markets ceased to worry about coronavirus and started to expect a strong recovery. Commodity and equity prices are rising, as well as real interest rates. These market trends reflect expectations of more growth than inflation – expectations that hurt gold and made it get stuck around $1,800. Having said that, the case for gold is not lost. Gold bulls should be patient. The growth is going to slow down, and when inflation persists for several months, the pace of real growth will decline even further, shifting the market narrative to worrying about inflation’s negative effects and stagflation. Gold should shine then. Wait, when? Soon. The Fed’s tightening cycle could be a turning point. The US central bank has already announced tapering of quantitative easing, which could erase some downward pressure on gold resulting from the anticipation of this event. Additionally, please remember that every notable market correction coincided with the end of QE, and every recession coincided with the Fed’s tightening cycle. Moreover, don’t forget that gold bottomed in December 2015, just when the Fed started hiking the federal funds rate for the first time since the Great Recession, as the chart below shows. However, when it comes to tapering, the situation is more complicated. The previous tapering was announced in December 2013, started in January 2014, and ended in October 2014. As one can see in the chart above, the price of gold initially increased, but it remained in its downward trend until December 2015 when the Fed started hiking interest rates. Hence, if history is any guide, there are high odds that gold may struggle further for a while before starting to rally next year, which could happen even as soon as June 2022, when the markets expect the first hike in interest rates. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

XAUUSD awaits breakout Gold consolidates as traders await the Fed’s monetary policy update. The metal came under pressure after it erased all gains from the November rally. Price action is stuck in a narrowing range between the daily support at 1760 and 1806. This indicates the market’s indecision. A bearish breakout would confirm the bearish MA cross on the daily chart and trigger an extended sell-off towards the floor at 1680. On the upside, a rally would send the price to retest the previous peak at 1870. GBPCAD rises towards key resistance The pound bounced back after Britain showed strong wage growth in the three months to October. A bullish RSI divergence indicated a loss of momentum in the latest sell-off. A break above 1.6770 and then a bullish MA cross were the confirmation for a reversal. The pair is heading towards the daily resistance level at 1.7100. Its breach may lead to a broader rally in the medium term. In the meantime, an overbought RSI could temporarily limit the extension. 1.6900 is the closest support in case of a pullback. USOIL seeks support Oil prices struggled after the International Energy Agency said that the omicron strain may threaten global demand. WTI crude is hovering under the 20-day moving average after the RSI briefly shot into the overbought territory. 74.10 near the 30-day moving average seems to be a tough nut to crack for now. A bullish breakout would attract momentum buyers and send the price to the daily resistance at 79.00. Otherwise, 68.00 from the latest rally is the support to keep the rebound valid.

  Stocks went lower yesterday, as investors took profits off the table ahead of today’s FOMC release. Was it a reversal or just correction? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch   The S&P 500 index lost 0.75% on Tuesday, as it broke below its recent trading range. The broad stock market’s gauge retraced some of its rally and it got back below the 4,650 level. On the previous Friday the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. Then we saw another attempt at getting back to the all-time high and on Friday the index closed the highest in history. So was yesterday’s decline only a correction? For now, it looks like a downward correction, but we may see some more volatility following today’s FOMC release and tomorrow’s ECB and the BOE release. Today the index is expected to open virtually flat and it will likely trade within a consolidation before the Fed release at 2:00 p.m. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,665-4,670, marked by the recent local lows and the next resistance level is at 4,700. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,610-4,630, marked by the previous Tuesday’s daily gap up of 4,612.60-4,631.97. The support level is also at 4,600. The S&P 500 is close to the early November local low, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Tech Stocks Are Relatively Weaker Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index bounced to the resistance level of 16,400. Tech stocks remain relatively weaker, as the Nasdaq 100 is closer to the early December local lows. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely trade within an intraday consolidation before the Fed release today. Then we may see an increased volatility in stocks, currencies and commodities. The S&P 500 index trades within a downward correction and we may see more profit-taking action in the near term. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open virtually flat ahead of today’s FOMC release. We are maintaining our short position from the 4,678 level. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Once inflation is set free, it never returns to the previous state. The fight requires fast thinking, but major banks still sit on the fence. On the global economic scene, major central banks still don’t really know which pedal to use - either the one to fight inflation (tapering) or the other one to keep taking their shoot of quantitative easing (money-printing) policies. Inflation, however, is like toothpaste: once you got it out, you can’t get it back in again. So, instead of squeezing the tube too strongly, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to maintain an accommodating tone this week, which could eventually benefit the price of black gold. Crude oil prices were looking for a direction to take on Tuesday, after mixed reports emerged, one rather pessimistic on global demand (published by EIA) and the other, more optimistic over sustained demand, from the OPEC group. Indeed, the first report came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday morning. It slightly lowered its forecast of world oil demand for 2021 and 2022, by 100,000 barrels per day on average, mainly to consider the lower use of air fuels due to new restrictions on international travel. The second one, from OPEC, stated on Monday in a more optimistic bias that the cartel has indeed maintained its forecasts for global oil demand in 2021 and 2022. It estimated that the impact of Omicron should be moderate and short-term since the world is becoming better equipped to face new variants and difficulties they may cause. Therefore, while the prospect of possible travel restrictions and new lockdowns worries investors, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday a drop in commercial crude reserves of 800,000 barrels last week. On the geopolitical scene, growing tensions between Russia and the West over the conflict in Ukraine are contributing to escalating gas prices, given that a third of European gas comes from Russia. WTI Crude Oil (CLF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) CFD (daily chart, logarithmic scale) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) In summary, we can witness more volatile markets than usual for the month of December. Even though this could be accentuated by the end-of-year adjustment operations among traders, some uncertainties with central banks’ monetary policies remain and are certainly weighing on the financial markets, especially in the inflationary context. Thus, the week ahead could be an interesting one for both the black gold and the greenback. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

GBP USD EUR 15 Dec 2021 Take a read below of all the essential details to know for this event. The Bank of England are back to deliver their interest rate policy decision tomorrow at 12pm GMT. No surprises like which unfolded at the November meeting are expected to be thrown the market’s way as the consensus clearly now expects a delay to the 15bps hike. The BoE have gone from one uncertainty to the next – labour data to now omicron. The announcement of Plan B restrictions was the nail in the coffin for any moves by the BoE come Thursday. If even one of the most hawkish members of the MPC (Saunders) stated there could be advantages to waiting for more data on how the omicron variant will impact the U.K. economy before raising rates then we can expect the more dovish/neutral members to be hesitant on the rate hike front. This is quite clearly a patient committee which sees “value in waiting for additional information”. It costs them less to wait and fall temporarily behind the curve as opposed to jumping the gun too early (remember monetary policy has a lag between implementation and visible effects). At the last meeting the interest rate vote was 7-2, with Saunders and Ramsden leading the hawkish charge, however, with the latest commentary by Saunders could we see this meeting’s vote at 8-1 instead? This combined with any softening in the policy statement tone could have dovish implications for money market expectations around February’s meeting, potentially applying some pressure on GBP. Some other historical precedents provide further support for a hold at this meeting – since gaining independence the BoE has never hiked at a December meeting with Christmas round the corner as well as preferring to take policy action at meetings that coincide with monetary policy reports and press conferences. Traders focus will be shifting to February’s meeting as they try to assess whether the BoE will hike by 15bps vs 25bps or hold again. This really does depend on the damage caused by omicron over the next 2 months. The UK with their higher natural immunity and the rapid ramp up in booster jabs (41% of population 12+ and 86% of over 60 population triple jabbed) should be able to avoid harsher lockdowns like we’ve seen previously, limiting the economic impact. This is very much dependent on the number of hospitalizations and deaths (busiest time of year for the NHS in Winter as it is). Case data should have peaked by the time of the next meeting (if it follows previous trends), with the BoE having more information at their fingertips to evaluate whether economic risks (how does the labour market hold up) from omicron will be on a downward trajectory. Continuing with the medium-term outlook, the SONIA curve indicates a bank rate of around 1% by end 2022. This is quite aggressive and creates the risk of a dovish repricing in those expectations if there are any speedbumps throughout next year. This would be a headwind for sterling. Labour, Inflation & GDP data: We received the first official employment report with the distortionary effects of furlough removed. It went fairly smoothly and I think bar omicron this would have been enough for the BoE to move. Average earnings (excluding bonuses) which feeds through to wage pressures was above consensus at 4.3% vs 4% exp, the employment gains of 149k was below the 225k anticipated, however, the claimant count showed a good decrease and the unemployment rate was lower than the 4.3% expected as well as tracking below the BoE’s forecast of 4.5%. Taking into account record vacancies and these figures the labour market looks healthy and is heading in the right direction. Moving onto the price stability side of the equation. Headline and core inflation both substantially beat the market’s expectations and with core (strips out volatile items) at 4% it is now the highest reading since 1992. The surge above 5% at a headline level has arrived earlier than many economist and the Bank themselves expected. Upon closer inspection, services inflation remains weak and price pressures are still largely being driven on the energy and goods components. The concern for the BoE of higher inflation is an unanchoring of expectations and second round effects such as wages rising – this would create more persistent inflation and could prove difficult lowering it back to the 2% target within the Bank’s ideal timeframe. Looking at OIS pricing post this inflation drop it seems rate markets have got a tad ahead of themselves with pricing for a hike tomorrow now at 74%. This could actually see sterling weaken if a hold is announced. GDP data out Friday almost was flat from a MoM perspective as it creeped up by a paltry 0.1%, this is quite significantly down from the 0.6% seen in September as well as the consensus of 0.4%. This leaves the UK economy 0.5% smaller than pre-covid levels. It remains to be seen how the economy will fare going forward as restrictions could be increased as key personnel involved in these decisions produce ominous warnings - CMO Whitty warned that UK hospitals could be overwhelmed in four weeks. Given the UK’s economy is heavily skewed towards services, tighter restrictions are a definite risk to the recovery. GBPUSD: GBPUSD found a pre-meeting bid after the inflation numbers and saw price move above both the mini descending channel and back into the main descending channel. I think a good upside target is the round number 1.33 around the 21-day EMA. Above that 1.335 (white horizontal line) would be the next go to. On the downside, a break of 1.32 would be key bringing the 8 December lows of 1.316 into play. The RSI flirted with oversold and has risen 10 points to around 40. Preview (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.) EURGBP: EURGBP has failed again to show proper follow through as it breached its upper trend line and the 200-day SMA. The RSI resistance line at 65 proved again to be a useful tool in guiding the sustainability of the move. Price is now hovering just above its 50-day SMA and right on top of its 21-day EMA. Targets wise on the upside again moves into the 200-day SMA and trend line would be important (around 0.855) and then on the downside the 50-day SMA will prove important with moves below there bringing 0.845 into play. Preview (Source: TradingView - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.)

A hedge fund has reaped the opportunity to buy the recent Ethereum price dip. Ether has recently dropped to a swing low of $3,675. Speculators believe the fund’s CEO caused fear, uncertainty and doubt to drive ETH price lower. While Ethereum price has risen significantly this year, the token has recently suffered several periods of volatility lately, reaching a swing low at $3,675. Ethereum fear and greed index is displaying a reading of 34, indicating fear which suggests that the token may be slightly oversold. A hedge fund has taken the opportunity to buy the ETH dip, pouring over $456 million into the cryptocurrency in less than two weeks. Hedge fund buys the Ethereum dip Cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital has purchased $56 million worth of Ether earlier on December 14. Etherscan shows that the firm, founded by Su Zhu, has transferred 14,833 ETH from Binance and Coinbase to its wallet. This is not the first time the hedge fund has purchased a large amount of Ethereum. Last week, Three Arrows Capital transferred $400 million in ETH from crypto exchanges FTX, Binance and Coinbase to its wallet. Crypto reporter Colin Wu first spotted the transactions and Zhu stated that he will continue to “bid hard on any panic dump,” and that purchasing 100,000 ETH is “dust,” suggesting that more purchases in Ether are yet to be made. However, the founder of the crypto hedge fund has been involved in controversy in the crypto community, as he revealed in November that he “abandoned Ethereum despite supporting it in the past.” His statement attracted attention from the crypto industry, and he has since softened his stance and even turned it around and said, “I love Ethereum and what it stands for.” Speculators in the crypto market suggested that Zhu tried to create fear, uncertainty and doubt to drive Ethereum price down to buy more ETH at a lower price. Ethereum price struggles with major headwind at $3,900 Ethereum price has rebounded slightly after a major drop toward the swing low at $3,675 on December 13. ETH continues to be sealed within a symmetrical triangle but is struggling to battle with resistance at the 200 twelve-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,900 as buyers are slowly entering the market. An additional obstacle may appear at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,989, then at the 21 twelve-hour SMA at $4,112. A spike in buy orders may see Ethereum price tag the 50% retracement level at $4,139 then head toward the upper boundary of the prevailing chart pattern, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,289. ETH/USDT 12-hour chart If Ethereum price slices above the aforementioned line of resistance, a 26% bounce toward $5,404 is on the radar. If selling pressure increases, Ethereum price may discover immediate support at the lower boundary of the governing technical pattern at $3,712 before sliding toward the swing low at $3,675.

FAIRFIELD COUNTY, CONNECTICUT May 6, 2010 4:55AM The Connecticut air is cold and damp. The trader moves in silence. He steps quietly through the pitch-black darkness of his Victorian McMansion and toward the door. As he disarms the home security system, the BEEP BEEP BEEP of the keypad code he enters is impossibly loud in the quiet of the pre-dawn morning. He steps out of the house, closes and locks the door, and hops into his car. As he rolls down the driveway and into the foggy morning, he inserts a Deadmau5 CD and blasts it at high volume in an effort to wake up and get pumped for another day of trading. But this will not just be another day of trading. This will be one of the most insane trading days of his career. It has been a frustrating year so far. The Eurozone Crisis has been smoldering for months but the trader’s attempts to sell the euro have been met with massive countertrend rallies as the Fed embarks on another round of USD-negative quantitative easing (QE). They call EURUSD a collision of two garbage trucks. The trader struggles to steer clear of the wreckage. His strongest view recently has been lower USDJPY. There is risk aversion popping up all over the place as markets worry about a domino effect where Greece crashes out of the Eurozone, followed by Spain, Portugal, Ireland and then finally Italy. Everyone is bearish stocks as the S&P 500 rally from 666 in March 2009 to 1050 now is seen as a mirage; the side effect of a money printing magic trick performed by central bankers. Totally unsustainable. EURUSD opened the year at 1.4500 and now trades sub-1.25 so the short trade is hard to stomach. Even when you know it’s the right thing to do, it takes a lot of courage to sell something down >15%. So the trader has shifted his attention to USDJPY and he expects it to go substantially lower as global risk aversion remains elevated and safe haven currencies like the yen should find demand. USDJPY has been inexplicably well-bid given recent risk aversion and the Fed “money printing”. It just rallied from 90 to 94 on air over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the best leading indicator for USDJPY is always US bond yields and they have been plummeting for a month. USDJPY looks completely wrong. The trader stares at the following chart, which shows US 10-year bond yields and USDJPY. The black bars are USDJPY and the dotted line shows US bond yields. Note they usually follow in lockstep. The divergence is a strong signal to the trader that he should be short USDJPY. USDJPY vs. US 10-year rates November 2009 to May 5, 2010 The chart covers the period up to May 5. This story takes place May 6. Chart courtesy of Refinitiv. If you look in the top right corner, you can see that USDJPY is a bit off the highs, but not much. Two days in a row, the high has been 94.99 and USDJPY is now bouncing aimlessly around 93.80 as he rolls into the hedge fund parking lot. It is still early so there are only three Porsche 911s in the lot right now. More will arrive later. This USDJPY trade has been tiring and painful as the trader got short at 94.00 with a stop loss at 95.05 and those two daily highs mean he has come within a hair (6 pips, or 0.064%) of getting stopped out, two days in a row. Holding on to a trade like this is exhausting as his fight-or-flight stress system remains activated for long stretches. Cortisol overload. Now, he can relax a bit and let things play out. His target is 91.00. Average daily range has been about 1 yen (100 pips) lately so he figures we might get there in the next week or so. 10:45 AM It has been a boring morning with USDJPY in a tight range. The sun comes out and it’s almost shorts weather outside so the trader decides to go for a run before lunch. Less than a mile into his run, he gets his first indication that this is not a random, ordinary day. His Blackberry rings. Bank sales on the line to tell him that USDJPY has just dumped 100 points in 15 minutes. Trading 92.80 now… Odd. He turns around and sprints back to the office, Spidey-sense tingling. By the time he grabs a quick shower and returns to the desk, USDJPY is 91.50. He is short $100 million USDJPY so that puts his profit (aka P&L or profit and loss) around +$2.8 million on the day. That’s more P&L than this trader typically makes in an excellent month. A huge haul. He scans the headlines and Bloomberg chats and finds no good explanation for what is going on. The stock market is down, but not enough to explain the move in USDJPY. This makes no sense. When a trade shows a big profit that makes no sense, he likes to cover it and move on. The trader buys 100 million USDJPY at 91.50. He is back to flat with no position and nearly 3 bucks of P&L in the bank. He sits there calmly and processes what has happened. He allows himself to feel happy, just for a second. He stuck to his plan and had the patience to sit with a decent-sized position for three days. He relaxes and basks in the satisfaction of a job well done. Then… Some dumb voice in his brain says: 2.8 million dollars is an amazing day. But... Maybe I can make 5 million today? And his hands, as if possessed by some mischievous or evil force, move slowly toward the BUY and SELL buttons. For no reason. And like a moron… He goes long USDJPY. First, he buys $50 million at 91.50 and then another $50 million at 91.25. These are impulsive trades with no rationale. His planned stop loss is 90.85 but before he has time to input a stop loss order, he notices S&Ps lurch lower on a huge volume surge. He puts on his headset and fires up the S&P squawk to see what’s going on. [If you want to hear the soundtrack to what happens next, Google “Flash crash stock market 2010 squawk” and select one of the YouTube replay videos] The announcer’s voice is strained as he narrates an unexplained fall in stocks from 1150 to 1120. USDJPY skips through 91.00 and the trader’s P&L shrinks to $2.0 million. He tries to sell at 90.80 and whiffs. USDJPY is suddenly in freefall. 90.10 trades. 90.00 breaks. USDJPY has just dropped more than four percent in a few hours. A monster move. The trader’s eyes flick over to his P&L which has now shrunk back to six digits. Two-thirds of three days’ work, gone in 60 seconds. And then… Stocks sell off hard out of nowhere. Like… REALLY HARD. The S&P squawk guy is losing it. Screaming. 1100 breaks in the S&P. 1080, 1070, 1060. USDJPY is a waterfall. The squawk loses his mind as he yells: “We have some BIG paper sellers here… 7 evens are trading. 6 evens are trading! 5 EVENS ARE TRADING!!! New lows here…” USDJPY breaks 89.00 and the trader has still sold only 23 million USD, leaving him stuck with a position of 77 million USD. It is a fast market, nearly impossible to transact. He picks up a phone to two different banks and neither one answers. He tries to hit the 88.60 and gets a reject notice from the aggregator. The price feed is stale and crossed now; it shows 89.00 / 88.10, which is not possible. The trader is now down on the day. In the red. His face is hot and feels red like his P&L. Urge to slam fist on desk is rising. The trader feels like he is falling, falling::::::::::::::::::::in cinematic slow-mo. USDJPY stabilizes a bit even as the S&P squawk continues to go nuts. “65 even offered! 60 trades… 60 even bid, this is the widest we have seen in years,” his voice cracks, he’s yelling like the announcer at Churchill Downs as the horses turn for the stretch. “60s trading! 50s trading! 50 at 70 now! We are twenty wide!” 1060 trades in S&Ps now, down just about 10% today, on zero news. Nobody knows what the hell is going on and there is panic in the air. The squawk dude continues to scream. He is pouring gasoline on the trader’s agitation. The trader’s P&L is now six figures in the red. Sadness. Anger. He is furious with himself because he had the right trade, waited patiently for almost three days for it to work, caught the move perfectly according to plan … And then flipped the other way on a whim, for no reason and gave everything and more back in half an hour. $2.8 million is a good month for this trader. He just made and lost that much in less than two hours. I am an idiot. How did I get into this mess? He needs to make a decision here and quick but he realizes that he is flooded. It is impossible to make a good trading decision when you’re flooded. He needs a second to clear his mind. He tears off the headphones, drops them on his desk, and stands up. He walks over to the window and tries to find a moment of lucid calm. He has been through these emotional storms before and knows how to get back to shore. He stares over the waters of the Long Island Sound. Gradually, his heart rate lowers. Clarity slowly, slowwwwly returns. His lizard brain retreats and his rational mind takes over. He talks to himself: It doesn’t matter how you got here. What are you going to do about it? 88.00 was the low in March. It’s a massive level. The panic is fading. USDJPY is down 700 points in two days and now bonds are reversing lower. This is the place to buy USDJPY, not sell. He returns to his keyboard, puts his headphones back on. The squawk guy has stopped screaming. He is noticeably more composed. S&P futures have bottomed within a whisker of limit down. They are stable but have not rebounded significantly. The bid/offer is super wide so it’s hard to tell whether they are moving higher or just bouncing along the bottom. The trader looks around the room and sees the panic and electricity levels have dropped. Not as many phones are ringing. Voices in the room are no longer frantic. He buys 50 million USDJPY at 88.85. And another 73 million at 88.95. Max long now, long $200 million USDJPY. But this time it’s thought out, not random, and he feels good about what he is doing. He feels confident but fully in control. He calmly thinks forward: USDJPY could easily rally to 92.50 from here. When you catch a turn like this, you can be greedy. He leaves a stop loss for half his position (sell 100 million USDJPY at 87.94) and then sits back to let things play out. He has his plan and now he knows all he can do is watch and see if it works. There is one more frenetic whipsaw and USDJPY briefly prints to a low of 87.95. One pip from his 100 million USD stop loss. Amazing luck. Seconds later, stocks stabilize, and then it’s like everyone realizes all at once that whatever the heck just happened… It’s over. USDJPY is paid at 88.70, then up through 89.50. It breaks 90.00 and as it hits 90.40, the trader flicks his eyes to the P&L. It is almost exactly back to the level where it peaked earlier: $2.8 million. He praises the trading gods and squares up. NICE! Too bad he didn’t stick with his plan on the way back up, either. A few hours later, USDJPY hit the trader’s original target of 92.50. Here’s the chart of USDJPY that day: USDJPY May 3-7, 2010 (US stock market Flash Crash was May 6) The trader made a multitude of both good and bad decisions in the three hours around the 2010 Flash Crash. The trading described in this story is a microcosm of everything that can go right and wrong in trading. Traders make good, careful decisions and get rewarded, they make bad decisions and get punished … but then sometimes a good decision leads to a bad outcome … or a bad decision is rescued by good luck. Every trader is a steaming hot bowl of bias stew and must maintain self-awareness and lucidity behind the screens as the trading day oscillates between boredom and terror. That story of the 2010 Flash Crash, just like this book, is all about the razor thin line that separates success and failure in trading. Alpha Trader is written to help you understand markets but also, more importantly, to help you better understand yourself as a trader. It is about great decisions and dumb mistakes. It is about how to be rational and why smart people do stupid things. All the time. The book is written for traders at every skill level. I wrote it to be understood by noobs, but I also aimed to write something that will resonate with experienced trading professionals. Alpha Traders are smart, rational, disciplined, flexible, patient, and aggressive… They have the endurance to handle unending ups, downs, hills, and valleys. They come in fired up each day to solve the ultimate puzzle and they get paid incredibly well if they succeed. Alpha Traders work hard (even when they don’t feel like it), seek to continuously improve, and love markets more than they love money. Thank you for taking the time to read my book. I hope you find it entertaining and useful. I hope it helps you unlock your maximum trading potential. By the way, I plan to publish future updates, fresh trading stories and new lessons, tactics and strategies, exclusively for readers of Alpha Trader. If you are interested, please sign up at brentdonnelly.com. Enjoy. /Brent

The Fed begins to get up steam and has finally turned its hawkish mode on. Was it something the gold bulls wanted to hear?The Fed’s full capitulation and unconditional surrender of the doves! Yesterday (December 15, 2021), the FOMC issued) the newest statement on monetary policy in which it erased any description of inflation as “transitory.” It took them only half a year to figure it out, but better late than never. Additionally, the Fed practically rejected its new monetary framework called “Flexible Average Inflation Targeting”, which allowed inflation to run hot for some time. In November, we could read:The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.In the last statement, however, this mammoth paragraph was substantially altered.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the Committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment.What is missing is the reference to the Fed’s tolerance of inflation above its target. This means that the US central bank has turned the hawkish mode on. Indeed, in line with expectations, the Fed has accelerated the pace of tapering of its quantitative easing. The Committee announced a doubling of the monthly reduction in the purchased assets from $10 billion for Treasuries and $5 billion for MBS to, respectively, $20 and $10 billion. It means that the Fed will end its asset purchase program by March rather than by mid-year.In light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market, the Committee decided to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $20 billion for Treasury securities and $10 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities.Dot-Plot and GoldThese are not all December monetary fireworks we got, though. The statement was accompanied by fresh economic projections conducted by FOMC members. How do they look at the economy right now? As the table below shows, central bankers expect faster economic growth and a lower unemployment rate next year compared to the September projections. This is not something the gold bulls would like to hear.More importantly, however, FOMC participants see inflation as more persistent at the moment because they expect 2.6% PCE inflation at the end of 2022 instead of 2.2%. In other words: inflation is currently believed to reach this level only a year from now! Interestingly (at least for economic nerds like me), Committee members expect that core PCE inflation will be higher than the overall index in 2022, and will amount to 2.7%. It is an indication that the Fed considers inflation more broad-based now than just driven by rising energy prices.Last but definitely not least, more interest rate hikes are coming. According to the latest dot plot, FOMC members see three increases in the federal funds rate next year as appropriate. That’s a huge hawkish turn compared to September, when they perceived only one interest rate hike as desired. Central bankers expect another three hikes in 2023 (the same as in September) and additional two in 2024 (one less than in September). Hence, the whole forecasted path of the interest rates becomes steeper and the Fed is now anticipating eight 25-basis point rate hikes from 2022 to 2024, one more than they saw in September.Implications for GoldGiven the hawkish FOMC statement and economic projections, gold is doomed, right? Well, in theory, a more aggressive Fed’s tightening cycle should boost bond yields and strengthen the greenback, pushing gold prices down. However, what does gold say to the God of Bears? Not today!Indeed, the chart below shows that theory and practice are not the same. Initially, the price of gold declined from around $1,765 to around $1,755, but it quickly rebounded and even increased to $1,780.So, what happened and what does it imply for gold’s future? Well, gold didn’t panic, as hawkish statements and dot-plot were widely anticipated. They were probably a little more hawkish than expected, but, on the other hand, Powell’s press conference was deemed as more dovish than predicted. Since Powell’s earlier transparency and dovish heart rescued gold from falling down, gold bulls may breathe a sigh of relief.However, we believe that this wasn’t the Fed’s last word. Inflation is likely to increase further next year; so, the US central bank, which is terribly behind the curve, could be forced to tighten its monetary policy even more. Thus, although my worries about this FOMC meeting turned out to be unnecessary, they could materialize later.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500 with pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course.Yesterday‘s expectations panned out to the letter:(…) Still, I‘m looking for the Fed to be forced during 2022 to abruptly reverse course, and bring back the punch bowl. Treasuries look serene, and aren‘t anticipating sharply higher rates in the near term – not even inflation expectations interpreted higher PPI as a sign that inflation probably hasn‘t peaked yet. This isn‘t the first time inflation is being underestimated – and beaten down commodities (with copper bearing the brunt in today‘s premarket) reflect that likewise. Only cryptos are bucking the cautious entry to the Fed policy decision, and decreasing liquidity, in what can still turn out as a lull before another selling attempt.I think that the overly hawkish Fed expectations are misplaced, and that the risk-on assets would reverse the prior weakness – both today and in the days immediately following, which is when the real post-Fed move emerges. Odds are that it would still be up across the board. Yes, I‘m looking for the Fed speak to be interpreted as soothing – as one that would still result in market perceptions that the real bite isn‘t here yet, or doesn‘t look too real yet. Big picture is that public finances need inflation to make the debt load manageable, and that ample room to flex hawkish muscles isn‘t there (as retail data illustrate).Markets are interpreting yesterday as the punch bowl effectively remaining in place, and crucially, copper is participating after the preceding weakness. The metal with PhD in economics has been hesitating due to the darkening real economy prospects even though manufacturing data aren‘t a disaster. Consumer sentiment isn‘t though positive, and inflation expectations among the people aren‘t retreating as much as bond spreads would show. The red metals is balancing out the economic prospects in favor of participating in the renewed rush into commodities – the super (let alone secular) bull run isn‘t over by a long shot. Stockpiles are tight, and whatever the odds of the infrastructure bill being passed any time soon, copper isn‘t budging. That‘s great for real assets across the board.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 reversal is to be trusted, and the advance was very solidly taken part in. With not too much willing sellers, the advance will likely moderate today, but still continue. The bull hasn‘t topped, has been my thesis for weeks.Credit MarketsHYG celebrations are ushering in the next risk-on phase – credit markets are confirming. The too hawkish Fed worry is in the rear view mirror, and many assets can run once again, the time is still right.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals downside was indeed limited, and the solid upswing I called for, materialized. Now, let‘s wait for the reaction of this catalyst with more inflation, for the juiciest results...Crude OilCrude oil is once again readying the upswing – the conditions are in place for $72 to give in shortly. Similarly, oil stocks haven‘t peaked, and are merely consolidating.CopperKey vote of confidence is coming today from copper – the red metal would very willingly participate in a fresh commodities upswing. It‘s been ushered in already, actually.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum look to have found the bottom as well – what kind of corrective pullback would we get? I‘m not looking for one overly deep and testing yesterday‘s lows.SummaryBears have thrown in the towel, and rightfully so – another instance of the Fed crushing the puts. Being between a rock and a hard place, with midterms approaching, infrastructure bill birthing troubles, the central bank‘s room to act isn‘t really too large. FOMC has met market expectations, and still remained behind the curve on inflation. On top, I‘m looking for them to have to reverse course during 2022 – I‘ve argued the case macroeconomically in the opening part of today‘s report. Back to the inflation trades – long live real assets and the not yet having topped S&P 500 (don‘t look at me, Russell 2000)!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin bulls consolidate above $48.760 and will be looking to test and break $50,020 to the upside. Ethereum has bulls banging on the door at $4,060, ready for a breakout towards $4,465. XRP sees buying volume picking up, as a return to $1.0 is in the making. Bitcoin price is seeing a lift in price action as supportive tailwinds emerge following a dovishly perceived US central bank decision, with investors buying cryptocurrencies across the board. Ethereum is seeing the same interest this morning, with buying volume picking up as the RSI nudges higher. Ripple is undergoing a tight squeeze against $0.84, with bulls pushing to break the downtrend and rally up to $1.0. Bitcoin price sees investors buying any offer insight as buying volume picks up Bitcoin (BTC) price is seeing a positive lift in sentiment as a backdraught emerges after a perceived dovish central bank decision from Jerome Powell and the US Federal Reserve. This morning, investors are taking a stake in risky assets with equities and cryptocurrencies on the front foot. With that, expect Bitcoin to rally on this sentiment throughout the trading day. BTC price will quickly face a critical hurdle at $50,020 with the psychological $50,000 level included and the S1 monthly support level. This trifecta will weigh on any possible upside potential. But as markets are rallying with risk-on across the board, expect this level to break sooner rather than later, with an intraday target towards $53,350. BTC/USD daily chart Investors should expect positive sentiment to be a major theme throughout the day. Two further major central banks are scheduled to announce their decisions today, however, the Bank of England and the ECB, and there is a risk these could cast a shadow on the current Christmas rally.. If one of these delivers a message that would break current sentiment, expect a quick nosedive correction in BTC back towards $44,088 or $43,030 in a quick rewind of the rally. Ethereum price sees bulls fighting bears at $4,060, ready for a landslide victory Ethereum (ETH) price made a perfect bounce off $3,687 on Wednesday, with investors pushing ETH price towards $4,060 around the monthly S1 support level and a pivotal historical chart level. As price opens again around the same level this morning, elevated buying from investors is putting bears under pressure to close their shorts, switch sides and join the buying camp. When this happens, expect a significant spike in buying volume with a quick break above $4,060 and a continuation towards the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,332. ETH price is just around $130 away from the monthly pivot level and a second technical element in the same area. Expect the rally to halt around that level as some short-term profit-taking will happen, and the price could fade a little back towards the 55-day SMA. Should current sentiment persist, with tailwinds in equities and cryptocurrencies, expect ETH price action to hit $4,646 by the end of the week, with new all-time highs in sight by next week. ETH/USD daily chart With the end of the year approaching rapidly, expect the volume to die down a bit, which could cause some sharp corrections as sellers will not always be there to match the profit-taking from investors. This could result in possible knee-jerk reactions with ETH price tanking in a matter of minutes. Expect with that, the $3,687 and $3,391 levels to be there as safeguards. Ethereum price must reclaim $4,000 to reignite ETH bull market XRP price sees investors coming in with breakout towards $1.05 Ripple (XRP) price sees investors returning as favorable tailwinds in cryptocurrencies are filtering through into XRP price action. Bulls opened the price this morning close to $0.84, and an initial resistance level is just above at $0.88. Expect a bit of a hesitant start because of this double belt of resistance. Once punched through, expect hesitant investors to pull the trigger and join the rally to move higher towards $0.95 at the 200-day SMA. XRP/USD daily chart Assuming a break above the 200-day SMA, expect a quick pop towards $1.05, but once hit, a quick fade will likely happen, with price action falling back towards $0.99. Should, however, these tailwinds start to fade as quickly as they come, expect a quick return to the downside with a push down on $0.78 and a break lower towards $0.62, with the blue descending trend line and the S2 at $0.58 as supporting factors. XRP price shows signs of incoming breakout

EURUSD tests key supply zone The euro jumped after the ECB announced it will cut its bond-buying program. The pair’s latest retreat seems to have been an accumulation phase for the bulls. Strong buying interest lies in the demand zone around 1.1230. A break above 1.1320 has put buyers back in the control room. 1.1380 from a previously botched reversal attempt is a major hurdle ahead. Its breach may trigger an extended rally towards 1.1460. The RSI’s overextended situation has caused a brief pullback with 1.1270 as a key support. GBPUSD attempts bullish reversal Sterling surged after the Bank of England raised its interest rates to 0.25%. The pound has been treading water above 1.3170. The sellers’ struggle to push lower and the buyers’ attempts above 1.3260 suggest that the mood could be improving. A break above 1.3300 has prompted the bears to cover, attracting momentum traders in the process with 1.3440 as the next target. That said, an overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback as intraday traders take profit. 1.3260 has become the closest support. NZDUSD breaks resistance The New Zealand dollar rallied as risk sentiment made its return post-FOMC. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a deceleration in the sell-off momentum. The long candle wick from 0.6700 suggests solid buying interest. Then a break above 0.6800 has put the last sellers under pressure. An overbought RSI has limited the initial surge. A pullback may test 0.6755, previously a resistance that has turned into a support. 0.6860 near the 30-day moving average is the next hurdle, and its breach could trigger a bullish reversal.

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell 1.2% over the past 24 hours to $2.21 trillion. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index reacted rather sharply, losing 6 points to 23 and slipping back into extreme fear territory, remaining in the lower half of the scale for over a month.Among the top coins, Solana (+3%) and Tera (+6%) fared best, while Polkadot (-3.8%) Cardano (-3%) fared worst. Bitcoin, which is sensitive to demand from US tech stocks, has lost more than 2% in the past 24 hours to $47.5K. Its rate continues to walk around the 200-day average, reflecting either indecision or a balance of power between buyers and sellers. At the same time, this line itself has reversed downwards, and the RSI on the daily charts remains near the oversold area. Both of these indicators point to a possible failure of the price shortly. A bearish scenario could bring bitcoin back to 40K or even 30K fairly quickly if we see another episode of margin liquidation. Large long-term buyers are unlikely to return before the price drops to $20K. Further evidence that the bears own the initiative in cryptocurrencies - ETHUSD is holding below $4000, confirming the shift from a rising to a downtrend in the last month. Should the sell-off intensify, potential buyers of Ether should look to $3350. The rally started from this level in early October, and now the 200-day moving average is near this mark. A break below it runs the risk of a buyers’ capitulation and would quickly land the rate at $2700. A longer-term bearish target is seen in the $1300-1700 area, where long-term buyers are expected. The realisation of such a bearish scenario would return capitalisation to the $1 trillion area for the entire crypto market. This would be a slightly lesser failure than the top two currencies, as we believe that long-term investors are still looking for other projects outside of the two oldest currencies.Market Analyst live on the youtube channel.

The energy crisis is in no hurry to leave Europe. The first wave of astronomical increases in gas prices this autumn has been followed by a second one, with even higher prices, in Europe exceeding $1500 yesterday. As is often the case, several factors combined in an unfortunate coincidence led to the crisis. It seems that China and Europe were over-zealous at the start of the year in encouraging economic recovery and moving away from coal consumption. The first substitute for coal was gas. But Russia, which had not yet got a certification for North Stream 2, diverted gas to China. The situation was exacerbated by the failure of wind generation, on top of a hot summer and a rather chilly start to winter, requiring more energy. All this is multiplied by a policy that Gazprom is failing to deliver via Nord Stream-2 and that the Russian giant prefers to use other ways to supply gas to Europe as little as possible. So the policies of all concerned have only exacerbated the price hike. Now, the officials’ mood and rhetoric do not promise a rapid improvement soon. However, it is worth realising that it is also in the political will to drastically alleviate the pressure on gas prices. It is unlikely that Europe will survive the whole of 2022 in such a situation, but there could be a rather nasty rise in electricity prices in the next couple of months, pushing inflation further upwards. The latest round of gas price rises came when Germany announced that it would not rush to certify NS2. Almost immediately after that, we saw Gazprom continue to reroute gas to China, exceeding the agreed contractual norms as much as possible, while supplies to Europe dropped to a 6-year low. Europe’s logical response to the current energy crisis with its supply problems is promoting alternative sources of energy. High gas and coal prices are a natural catalyst for the switch to alternatives, and politicians can help by announcing stimulus to speed things up even further. It is also worth looking at companies associated with LNG, which is more flexible than pipeline gas in changing supply in response to demand fluctuations. Gazprom itself rarely benefits from sharp price spikes. It is more likely to benefit from long-term trends, supply growth, and Brent Crude price. The roller-coaster ride we see in European gas prices is not a good investment idea as it creates a lot of uncertainty and adds volatility. Looking ahead to the year, I think the power generation and alternative energy suppliers sectors (beyond coal, oil and gas) are attractive. Shares in companies in the traditional energy sector have risen impressively since last November, and this rally, in our view, is coming to an end. The trend for ESG - took off too fast at the start of 2021 and will run out of steam somewhat over the coming months. It’s not a hundred-metre race but a multi-year marathon, so a smooth transition would be logical. As we see at the end of the year, disruptive moves cause severe supply chain disruption and are costly to the world, including a new surge of interest in coal earlier in November. As long as it looks like a speculative hype idea, we expect companies to outperform this trend when the initial noise subsides and the distortions are balanced. ESG now resembles Big Tech a few years ago: a lot of hype and periodic “deflating”, but there is more potential here than in other trends in the long run.

Part II Let's continue to explore the past 20 years of US Fed actions. I believe the US Fed has created a global expansion of both economies and debts/liabilities that may become somewhat painful for foreign nations – and possibly the US. Reading The Data & What To Expect in 2022 And Beyond In the first part of this research article, I highlighted the past 25 years of US Fed actions related to the DOT COM bubble, the 9/11 terrorist attack, the 2008-09 US Housing/Credit crisis, and the recent COVID-19 virus event. Each time, the US Federal reserve had attempted to raise interest rates before these crisis events – only to be forced to lower interest rates as the US economy contracted with each unique disruption. The US Fed was taking what it believed were necessary steps to protect the US economy and support the global economy into a recovery period. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The following few charts highlight the results of the US Fed's actions to keep interest rates extremely low for most of the past 20 years. I want to highlight what I believe is an excessive credit/debt growth process that has taken place throughout most of the developing world (China, Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, and other nations). At the same time, the US has struggled to regain a functioning growth-based economy absent of US Federal Reserve ZERO interest policies and stimulus. Extreme Growth Of World Debt (excluding the US) This Rest Of The World; Debt Securities & Loans; Liabilities chart highlights the extreme, almost parabolic, growth in debt and liabilities that have accumulated since 2005-06. If you look closely at this chart, the real increase in debt and leverage related to global growth started to trend higher in 2004-05. During this time, the US housing market was on fire, which likely pushed foreign investors and foreign housing markets to take advantage of this growing trend in US and foreign real estate. This rally in speculative investments, infrastructure, and personal/corporate debt created a huge liability issue throughout many developing nations. Personal and Corporate debt levels are at their highest levels in decades. A recent Reuters article suggests global debt levels have risen in tandem with real estate price levels and is closing in on $300 Trillion in total debt. (Source: fred.stlouisfed.org) GDP Implicit Price Deflator Rallies To Levels Not Seen Since 1982~83 The rally in the US markets and the incredible rise of inflation over the past 24 months have moved the consumer price levels higher faster than anything we've seen over the past 50+ years. We've only seen price levels rise at this pace in the 1970s and the early 1980s. These periods reflected a stagflation-like economic period, shortly after the US Fed ended the Gold Standard. This was also a time when the US Federal Reserve moved the Fed Funds Rate up into the 12% to 16% range to combat inflationary trends. If the GDP Implicit Price Deflator moves above 5.5% over the next few months, the US Fed may be forced to take stronger action to combat these pricing issues and inflationary trends. They have to be cautious not to burst the growth phase of the markets in the process – which could lead to a very large deflationary/deleveraging price trend. (Source: fred.stlouisfed.org) We need to focus on how the markets are reacting to these extreme debt/liability trends and extreme price trends. The markets have a natural way of addressing imbalances in supply/demand/pricing functions. The COVID-19 virus event certainly amplified many of these issues throughout the globe by disrupting labor, supply, shipping, and manufacturing for a little more than 12+ months. The future decisions of the US Federal Reserve will either lead to a much more orderly deleveraging/devaluation process for the US and global markets – supporting the natural economic functions that help to process and remove these excesses. Or, the US Federal Reserve will push interest rates too high, too fast, and topple the fragile balance that is struggling to process the excesses throughout the global markets. What does this mean? I believe this data, and all the charts I've shared with you in this research article, suggest the US Fed is trapped in a very strenuous position right now. I'll share more information with you regarding my predictions for December 2021 and 2022 in the third part of this article. I will also share my proprietary Fed Rate Modeling System's results in Part III of this article and tell you what I expect from the US Federal Reserve and US stock markets. WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW I TRADE AND INVEST IN THE MARKETS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. If you need technically proven trading and investing strategies using ETFs to profit during market rallies and to avoid/profit from market declines, be sure to join me at TEP – Total ETF Portfolio. Have a great day! Chris VermeulenChief Market Strategist

S&P 500 made intraday ATHs, but the upswing was sold into heavily – pre-FOMC positioning raising its head? Bonds didn‘t crater, and the risk-off move wasn‘t all too pronounced. Tech weakness was the key culprit, with value barely hanging onto opening gains. Russell 2000 breaking below its Wednesday‘s open nicely illustrates how late in the topping process we are. What is needed for the upswing to go on, is tech leading the daily charge once again – and it remains to be seen for how long and to what degree would value be able to participate. I‘m taking today‘s S&P 500 weakness as squaring the prior quick long gains, which felt practically as a short squeeze. Now, we‘re working through the faster taper impact, not having shaken the news off yet. We‘re though getting there, if precious metals seeing through the fresh policy move inadequacy, and commodities likewise, are any clue. As I wrote yesterday: (…) pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course. Markets are interpreting yesterday as the punch bowl effectively remaining in place, and crucially, copper is participating after the preceding weakness. The metal with PhD in economics has been hesitating due to the darkening real economy prospects even though manufacturing data aren‘t a disaster. Consumer sentiment isn‘t though positive, and inflation expectations among the people aren‘t retreating as much as bond spreads would show. The red metals is balancing out the economic prospects in favor of participating in the renewed rush into commodities – the super (let alone secular) bull run isn‘t over by a long shot. Stockpiles are tight, and whatever the odds of the infrastructure bill being passed any time soon, copper isn‘t budging. That‘s great for real assets across the board. The reason I quoted the above copper part, is the importance of its yesterday‘s move – not too hot, not too cold in pursuing the broader commodities. Keeping above $4.28 with ease today, would be an important signal that the bears aren‘t able to step in convincingly, including in stocks. Oil would sort itself out above $71 while gold and silver would extend their preceding gains today. All in all, stocks would join early next week, and apart from bonds not going more risk-off, Ethereum outperformance would be another confirmation of a broader risk-on upswing to happen. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 downside reversal isn‘t to be trusted on a medium-term basis – but the downswing hasn‘t run its course, looking at volume. Good Nasdaq showing is sorely missing. Credit Markets HYG retreat while the quality debt instruments stayed more or less flat, is concerning for today – and for Monday, should we get follow through in bonds later on. Given the volume comparison, it‘s not certain in the least, which would set up conditions for a broader rally early next week. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downside is clearly over, and a fresh upswing well underway. Correction in equities is marginally helping, and the reaction of Fed‘s underwhelming move with more inflation news, would be the juiciest catalyst. Crude Oil Crude oil is building up the springboard once again – the current consolidation including in oil stocks, would be resolved to the upside next week. We haven‘t seen a genuine trend change in Nov. Copper Key vote of confidence has come from copper – more willing participation from the red metal is called for next (as a minimum, not losing momentum vs. CRB Index). Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum haven‘t kept Wednesday‘s gains, and could very well provide an early sign of buying appetite more broadly returning. Summary Bonds remain in wait and see mode, and aren‘t as bearishly positioned as stocks at the moment. Neither are precious metals or commodities, raising the odds of a bullish resolution to the S&P 500 rally that‘s been faded. The usual constellation is what‘s required – recovering bonds taking the pressure off tech, mainly. Ideally accompanied by solid HYG outperformance, value rising, copper extending gains, and Ethereum doing better than Bitcoin. Tall order, especially for today – but nothing unsurmountable for say Monday-Tuesday as argued for in detail in today‘s report. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

EURUSD re-tested 1.12 level. EURUSD was last traded at 1.12 level in 24th Nov 2021, before buyers quickly pushed the price back to above 1.13 within just 2 trading days, and since then the price remained consolidating between 1.1250 – 1.1350 for the past 15 trading days. In this weekly chart perspective the divergence is too obvious to ignore as RSI signaling oversold since EURUSD broke below 1.13 level in early November 2021. Despite the uncertainty from a macro-economic point of view, there are chances for 1.14 level to be the next bulls target, as long as sellers do not break below 1.12 level. AUDUSD re-tested 0.71 weekly engulf. Following the rise of Iron Ore in mid-November 2021, it has become a huge favor for the Aussie dollar to make a significant upside push just right after sellers reached 0.70 level, which then becomes the Q4 new low. Now buyers that has clear the 0.71 level which will expose 0.72 - 0.73 as the next bull target. However, this will be a tough job for buyers as both 100-200 weekly moving averages act as a strong resistance level, even though last week buyers managed to reach 0.72. After that the price quickly lowered toward weekly engulf neckline before the US session closed. Weekly engulf can be a good area to watch for buyers to look for upside continuation for the week ahead.

Two weeks ago, we posted the following chart in our weekly silver chart book release, after representing a strong case for a bullish silver play: Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly chart from December 3rd, 2021: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2021. We wrote at the time: “The weekly chart above illustrates that as much as we have entered the “shopping zone” for silver. There is a probability that we might see a quick spike down as we have seen at the end of September.” Weekly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, creating silver wealth without fear: Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of December 18th, 2021. We were spot on anticipating how the market would unfold in the future. Furthermore, we followed the principles of consistent analysis of our surroundings, the market, and ourselves. We advanced confidently in the direction of likely probabilities and tried to keep doubt to a minimum. Hourly chart, Silver in US-Dollar, well positioned: Silver in US-Dollar, hourly chart as of December 18th, 2021. This sequence allowed for a low-risk entry on December 15th, 2021 right at the lows. The entry-level of US$21.47 already allowed for a 2.75% partial profit-taking on half of our position size at US$22.06. As always, we use our low-risk quad exit strategy to reduce risk and, as such, fear of losing profits. Now we are well-positioned with the remainder of the position, and a stop raised to break even entry levels. Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart, worth the effort: Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of December 18th, 2021. The monthly chart above shows our planned following two targets for this trade. With an entry at US$21.47 and an initial tight stop at US$21.22, our risk/reward-ratio towards our first profit-taking target was about 1:2.37. Now for the next target at US$27.35, it is 1:23, and for the final target at US$47.20, it is 1:103. In other words, with extensive planning and stacking of odds, we were able to identify a trade that had about a percent of risk at entry time. In addition, we quickly mitigated risk by early partial profit-taking. And yet, we still have a profit potential of the final 25% of position size, possibly maturing to a 120% profit. Taking only highly likely and highly profitable trades like these is also confidence-building and a fear eliminator. Creating silver wealth without fear: Michael Jordan’s achievement of playing in the present moment only is nothing short of the accomplishment of monks and so-called enlightened beings. It takes a long stretch of a career to achieve such a skill set. It illustrates that trading is more than just pushing a button or extracting a mathematical edge system. Trading is psychology and requires many skill sets combined to produce the necessary consistency to overcome the dilemma that you are only as good as your last action. Luck alone will get you nowhere in this game. It is not our intention to discourage you. Instead, it is quite the opposite. Often trading can be overwhelming and at times one can be down thinking: „Why can’t I do this, why did I betray my own rules again?” Trading is hard, it takes screen time and skill. Do not let fear and doubt dictate your actions. You can do this! Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|December 19th, 2021|Tags: bottoming pattern, Crack-Up-Boom, Gold, Gold/Silver-Ratio, inflation, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, silversqueeze, technical analysis, The bottom is in, time frame, trading principles|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

The crypto market's capitalisation has fallen 2.8% in the last 24 hours to $2.166 trillion. Methodical pressure on the significant coins persists along with wary trading in traditional equity markets. The bitcoin price has been losing 2.5% in the last 24 hours and is 5.6% lower than it was exactly a week ago. Ether is down 3.4% and 4%, respectively. Some other top coins are also under severe pressure, but we cannot say that the dynamics are unambiguous. For example, XRP is up 5.5%, AVAX is up 22%, and Luna is up 30.7% in the last seven days. At the beginning of the year, institutional and investment bank interest provided cryptocurrencies with overperformance but now lowered demand for safety is becoming their Achilles' heel. The most methodical, albeit relatively measured, pressure has been seen in Bitcoin and Ether, which have been under bearish control for the past month and a half. According to equity and commodity market definitions, BTCUSD and ETHUSD have crossed the bear market threshold, having lost more than 20% of their peaks in early November. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is not gaining meaningful support on the decline towards the 200-day average. These are all signs that the bear market is entering its rights, as enthusiasts can no longer buy out any drawdowns. Generally speaking, a modest downside amplitude is not typical of cryptocurrencies, so short-term traders should be prepared for an explosion of volatility on a decline below meaningful levels. We assume that crucial support is concentrated near $40K for Bitcoin, a resistance level in January and a support level in October. Falling below this level could dramatically increase the coin's volatility and affect the entire market. For Ether, relatively measured volatility could continue up to the level of the 200-day moving average (just above 3300), which coincides with the area of extended consolidation in August and September and the start of the latest rally in October. Suppose Ether and Bitcoin fail to find strong buying below these levels as well. In that case, we risk seeing a true capitulation of the entire cryptocurrency market and a revision of the outlook to a more bearish one.

Bitcoin price is in a massive accumulation phase before it explodes to $100,000 or more. The bull run is likely to begin after a deep correction to MicroStrategy’s average buy price at $29,860. On-chain metrics suggest that long-term holders are booking profit, adding a tailwind to the bearish thesis. Bitcoin price has been hanging around the $50,000 psychological level for quite some time. A breakdown of one crucial support barrier is likely to trigger a steep crash for BTC. On-chain metrics are also suggesting that long-term holders are booking profits, anticipating a nosedive. Bitcoin price and MicroStrategy’s accumulation Bitcoin price has been stuck between the 21-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $51,782 and the 50-week SMA at $44,730 for roughly two weeks. Although BTC pierced through the 50-week SMA on December 4 crash, it recovered quickly. As the sell-off continues, the big crypto is slowly slithering its way to retest the vital support level. A weekly close below the 50-week SMA at $44,730 will indicate a major shift in trend from bullish to bearish. This development would also signal that Bitcoin price is due to collect liquidity resting below the $40,596 support level. While this liquidity run might knock BTC below $40,000, it is a temporary move. In the long run, investors can expect the pioneer crypto to consolidate here before heading to $30,000 or the liquidity resting below it. Interestingly this downswing is necessary to trigger the stop-losses resting below a critical $29,860 level, which is the average buy-in price of MicroStrategy. To date, the business intelligence software company has purchased 122,477 BTC, which is 0.53% of the total BTC in existence. The total value of Bitcoins held by MicroStrategy is worth $5.76 billion, which indicates a profit of roughly 56%. It is fair to assume that many whales or long-term holders that are betting on BTC have an average price at roughly the same level as MicroStrategy or a bit lower. Therefore, a dip below the average price of MicroStrategy at $29,860 will indicate a ‘max pain’ scenario and is likely to be where many investors may panic and sell to prevent losses. Market makers are likely to drive Bitcoin price to retest this barrier, therefore, or just below it. While this outlook is speculative, it would make sense for BTC, especially from a market makers’ perspective due to the supply resting below the multiple wicks present around the $30,000 psychological level. In total, this move would represent a 36% crash from the current position. Although unlikely, a worst-case scenario would be for BTC to fall by 48%, allowing it to retest the 200-week SMA at $23,935. BTC/USD 1-week chart IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model reflects the levels mentioned above. This on-chain index shows that the immediate cluster of investors that are “In the Money,” extends from $28,350 to $46,636. Roughly 5.23 million addresses purchased 3.13 million BTC at an average price of $38,283. Therefore, a weekly close below this level will cause panic selling among investors that could drag the big crypto down to sub-$30,000 levels. Moreover, any short-term buying pressure is likely to face massive headwinds as a massive cluster of underwater investors are present from $55,302 to $67,413. In this range, roughly 6.65 million addresses that purchased 3.37 million BTC are “Out of the Money.” Only a massive spike in buying pressure will be able to overcome the selling pressure from investors in this cluster trying to break even. Hence, the logical conclusion is that the outlook for BTC favors the bears. BTC GIOM The supply shock chart supports the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. It shows that the long-term holders are booking profits. Willy Woo, a popular analyst stated, long term holders have been selling down and taking profits, but as a cohort they continue to be in a region of peak accumulation. Bear markets coincide when these holders have divested of their coins, despite the fear in the market, structurally we are not setup for a bear market. BTC supply shock chart Further supporting a sell-off is the 0.83% decline in the number of whales holding between 100 to 100,000 BTC. Roughly 136 whales have offloaded their positions as seen in the supply shock chart above. BTC whale distribution chart The only chart that shows hope and presents the possibility of a short-term bullish outlook is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model, hovering around -1.8%. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased BTC over the past year. A negative value represents that short-term holders are selling and is often referred to as the “opportunity zone.” This is where mid-to-long-term holders accumulate. So, there is a chance that BTC might see a potential buying spree that pushes it to retest the 21-week SMA at $51,776 or reach for the $57,845 resistance barrier, in a highly bullish case. BTC 365-day MVRV While the scenario outlined above is undoubtedly bearish for short-term holders, it will provide long-term investors with a perfect buying opportunity. A retest of MicroStrategy’s average buy price at $29,860 will be where investors can expect a reversal of the downswing. The resulting uptrend will likely propel Bitcoin price to a new all-time high at $100,000. However, if Bitcoin price decides to skip the crash and produces a weekly close above the current all-time high at $69,000, then it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In such a case, investors can expect BTC to head to other psychological barriers like $70,000 or $80,000.

BABA shares have fallen sharply on fears over delisting. Alibaba stock is now down at 5-year lows. $100 is the next major support as $110 is held for now. Alibaba (BABA) continues to suffer from repeated selling pressure as the original Chinese tech stock suffers backlash effects. Alibaba can be said to have set off the whole Chinese regulatory crackdown. Alibaba was due to spin off its payment subsidiary ANT Group about 14 months ago. The deal fell through, however, after Alibaba CEO Jack Ma appeared to question the Chinese hierarchy. This was the catalyst for a reexamination by China of its burgeoning tech space. Most notably, intense regulatory scrutiny focused on the huge amounts of data generated and stored by Chinese tech names. China saw this as a matter of concern over national security. DIDI was next in the crosshairs. It had IPO'd successfully in New York in early 2021. The stock had listed in New York in apparent defiance of Chinese officials. Once China set its sights on DIDI, panic soon ensued among Chinese tech investors, and BABA and others suffered contagion effects. The trend has been powerful with momentum completely vanishing. BABA shares are down 25% in the last three months, taking total losses for 2021 to 48%. Alibaba (BABA) chart, daily Alibaba (BABA) stock news Alibaba was once known as the Chinese Amazon, and for good reason. The company is still highly profitable. Revenues have grown from $158 billion in 2017 to $717 billion in 2021. This represents a growth rate of nearly 50% from 2020. Despite this, the share price is down a similar amount as mentioned. Gross profit grew 30% to March 2021. Revenue continued to grow as the Chinese tech bubble burst. Revenue is forecast to remain strong, growing by 22% in 2022 and 17% for 2023 and 2024. Revenue will, if those targets are met, have grown to $1.2 trillion by 2024. This represents a near doubling from current levels. Alibaba was hit with a heavy fine by the Chinese authorities after the ANT Group debacle. Investors had hoped the matter was finally settled, but the power of investor fear resurfaced once China restarted its scrutiny of US-listed names, this time with DIDI being the poster child. This fear is likely to remain elevated as Chinese and US tensions are unlikely to subside anytime soon. China is also not likely done with its crackdown and delisting plans for some of its tech names. This presents opportunities and challenges. BABA may be overvalued fundamentally with strong revenue growth, but momentum and fear are powerful factors. More important is uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty, and that is currently the main headwind for Alibaba and other Chinese tech names. Alibaba (BABA) stock forecast Breaking support at $130 has led to an obvious fascination with $100. Before that, there is a last chance saloon support at $110. This is the September 2016 high. The daily chart has registered an oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also crossed into bullish territory. A close above the 9-day moving average is needed to get short-term traders interested. Long-term players will need to see a move above $170. The short-term trend is bearish until the 9-day moving average is broken. The stock remains bullish in the short term on a break of $130 in our view. This is high risk, so please use stops. BABA 1-day chart

S&P 500 fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure. Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar? The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. Corona response is another uncertainty, and given the APT performance, the odds of seeing economic activity (just at a time when supply chains would need to keep working off prior setbacks) restricted, have increased. Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already... Still, equities are poised to extend gains in 2022, and I‘m looking for a volatile but positive year. 5,200 in Dec 2022 isn‘t out of the question – with large cap tech, financials and energy doing particularly fine. Real rates would remain negative, and precious metals would love the Fed slamming on the tightening breaks, and bringing back the punch bowl somewhat. If you look at the flattening yield curve, it‘s clear evidence of market fears (I call that certainty as that‘s what they excel at – the 1995 soft landing was a notable exception) of the Fed overdoing the tapering & rate hikes. Given all the inflation still ahead, and the expected fiscal-monetary policies working against each other (yes, more handouts), commodities would have another great year. So much for the big picture 2022 predictions. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 on the defensive, but the bullish case isn‘t lost. Some sideways trading of today‘s volatility is likely to preceed the upswing – we aren‘t rolling over to a 5-10% correction now. Credit Markets HYG retreat could have been a lot worse, and it‘s a good sign bonds aren‘t panicking. Just the junk ones would need to outperform the quality ones to drive a good stock market day. For now, bonds remains on guard. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals decided to make a measured upswing – this isn‘t a real reversal. Pressure to go higher is building up, and rates rising a little before the Fed moves, won‘t cut it. When liquidity conditions and corona fears ease a little, look for a much steeper upswing. Crude Oil Crude oil is trapped in the omicron uncertainty – quite resilient, which is a testament to the overwhelming pressure for prices to keep rising. Waiting for some fears to be removed before the fundamentals sink in again. Copper Copper is leaning to the bullish side of the spectrum – it certainly isn‘t disappointing. The low volume hints at little willingness to sell – an attempt to spike shouldn‘t be surprising next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum weakness today is there, mirroring commodities – but the decline isn‘t in the disastrous category. Wait and see with a whiff of preliminary caution – that‘s all. Summary S&P 500 and oil are feeling the omicron response pinch – the worries boosted by Netherlands lockdown Sunday. Corona remains the wildcard, and markets are ignoring its relatively mild symptoms while focusing on case count. Tech is likely to do better than most of value while yields aren‘t pressured to rise fast. For a moment, inflation is receding from the spotlight, but I‘m looking for it to come back. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Moderna (MRNA) says a booster dose of its vaccine appears to protect against omicron. Moderna (MRNA) shares boosted themselves, up 7% premarket. Moderna (MRNA) stock has reversed the post-earnings slide. Moderna (MRNA) is back to pre-earnings levels as the emergence of the omicron variant and its effect flows through to multiple vaccine makers. Booster rollouts are ongoing globally and the spread of the new variant is causing new restrictions to be put in place in many European countries. Moderna shares have now retraced back to where they were on November 4, just before a disappointing earnings release. Now, this next phase will be crucial. Can traders push Moderna (MRNA) higher or will longer-term investors hold sway and take a second opportunity for more selling. Moderna (MRNA) stock news The White House has chimed in on the latest covid news as it struggles to cope with the omicron variant. It released an unusually strong statement on Friday urging continued vaccination. "Our vaccines work against Omicron, especially for people who get booster shots when they are eligible. If you are vaccinated, you could test positive. But if you do get COVID, your case will likely be asymptomatic or mild. We are intent on not letting Omicron disrupt work and school for the vaccinated. You’ve done the right thing, and we will get through this. For the unvaccinated, you’re looking at a winter of severe illness and death for yourselves, your families, and the hospitals you may soon overwhelm. So, our message to every American is clear: There is action you can take to protect yourself and your family. Wear a mask in public indoor settings. Get vaccinated, get your kids vaccinated, and get a booster shot when you’re eligible". Here is the link for you to verify the statement. Moderna (MRNA) this morning announced that its authorized booster shot increases omicron neutralizing antibodies approximately 37 fold. The Centre for Disease Control (CDC) had on Friday backed mRNA vaccines over JNJ. Also on Friday Bloomberg reported that researchers from the University of Washington and Humbas Biomed produced results from a study showing limited antibody response against omicron from Sinopharm, Sputnik and JNJ covid vaccines. The study is pre-print and not peer-reviewed. Moderna (MRNA) stock forecast The emergence of omicron had already stabilized losses in Moderna (MRNA) stock and resulted in a higher high on November 29 and a lower low on December 10. The news of this booster effectiveness will see more gains for MRNA shares. November 29 resistance at $376 will be the first target. But in reality, this zone from $320 to $350 (highlighted below) is a resistance zone with decent volume. The spike high in late November was just when news of omicron began to surface and investors rushed back to covid vaccine stocks. Equity markets then began to discount its effect and MRNA slid back. But crucially it set a higher low. We expect further gains here. The RSI has plenty of room to run and yet to signal a significant move. The MACD had already crossed bullishly so more is expected. Breaking above $376 will see a test of $420 to $450. Key supports are the 200-day moving average t $268 and the Dec 10 low at $233. Moderna (MRNA) chart, daily

Bitcoin price slides lower, hinting at a retest of the 50 weekly SMA at $44,778. Ethereum price prepares for a 16% breakout from the falling wedge pattern. Ripple price could see an 11% ascent to $0.96 as it prepares for a second leg-up. Bitcoin price is moving sideways, trapped between crucial weekly moving averages. This consolidation has had a positive knock-on effect on Ethereum price which is setting up a bullish pattern ready for a breakout. Ripple, on the other hand, has already embarked on a climb and is preparing for its second leg-up. Bitcoin price anticipates short-term losses Bitcoin price is in a slow downtrend and looking to retest the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $44,778. While this development will see BTC shed roughly 3%, it could result in a bounce, triggering a bullish outlook. A successful bounce off the said SMA will open the path to retest the 21-week SMA at $51,256 and, in a highly bullish case, the $53,709 resistance level. If the bid orders continue to pour in, the pioneer crypto is likely to continue its ascent and tag the $57,845 barrier. Regardless, investors need to note that this bullish outlook is contingent on a successful bounce off the 50-week SMA at $44,778. BTC/USD 1-day chart If Bitcoin price slices through the SMA at $44,778, there is a good chance it will continue its descent to $40,596 to collect the liquidity resting below it. A daily close below $44,778 will invalidate the bullish thesis detailed above. Ethereum price eyes higher highs Ethereum price has been outlining a falling wedge pattern since November 28. This technical formation is obtained by connecting the three lower lows and four lower highs formed during this period using trend lines. The setup forecasts a 16% upswing, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point at $3,912, which puts ETH at $4,533. Assuming Ethereum price can bounce off the 70.5% retracement level at $3,780, this run-up would constitute a 20% ascent. Therefore, investors need to keep a close eye on the reversal of the retracement. ETH/USD 4-hour chart On the other hand, if Ethereum price shatters the $3,780 and $3,740 barriers, it is likely to head lower to retest the range low at $3,669. A four-hour candlestick close below this level will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. Ethereum price must reclaim $4,200 as support to resume bull run Ripple price vies to keep going higher Ripple price consolidated around the $0.837 resistance barrier for more than a week. The increased buying pressure resulted in an 11% spike in XRP price, pushing it to set up a potential swing high at $0.917. While the initial surge was noticeable, investors can expect XRP price to retrace before triggering another rally. The 0.837 support level will likely be tagged again soon. Assuming this occurs, market participants can expect Ripple price to climb 12% to retest the $0.936 hurdle. In some cases, XRP price might extend this advance to collect the liquidity resting above $0.980 or $1.018 hurdles. XRP/USD 4-hour chart While things are looking up for Ripple price, a breakdown of the $0.837 support level will indicate weakness among buyers. In this case, XRP price will probably dip below the $0.749 demand barrier to collect the liquidity resting there. A daily close below this level will indicate buyers are unwilling to push the price higher and invalidate the bullish thesis for the remittance token. XRP price looks primed for a break out to $1.75

Finally, Powell admitted higher inflation risks and gold jumped above $1,800. Before anyone noticed, however, it plummeted below the key level again. Who are you, Mr. Powell: a reptilian or a human? A dove or a hawk? Since we all know the answer to the first question, let’s focus on the second one. Markets decided that Powell’s last press conference was rather dovish, but a careful reading doesn’t support this view. The main dovish signal was Powell’s emphasis that quantitative easing tapering and interest rate hikes are separate issues, as the tightening cycle criteria are stricter. So, the first rate hike may not come immediately after the end of tapering, which is scheduled for mid-March. Even if they are separate, we shouldn’t expect a long break between the end of quantitative easing and the first rate hike. This gap will definitely be shorter than in 2014-2015. In the last tightening cycle, the Fed ended asset purchases in October 2014, while the first increase in the federal funds rate occurred in December 2015. Powell himself, however, pointed out that the economy is much stronger, while inflation is much higher, so a long separation before interest rate hikes is not likely: I don't foresee that there would be that kind of very extended wait at this time. The economy is so much stronger. I was here at the Fed when we lifted it off last time and the economy is so much stronger now, so much closer to full employment. Inflation is running well above target and growth as well above potential. There wouldn't be the need for that kind of long delay (…) The last cycle that was quite a long separation before interest rates, I don't think that's at all likely in this cycle. We're in a very, very different place with high inflation, strong growth, a really strong economy (…) So this is a strong economy, one in which it's appropriate for interest rate hikes. In fact, this delay may be very short. On Friday, Fed Governor Chris Waller said that the interest rate increase will likely be warranted “shortly after” the end of asset purchases, possibly even at the FOMC meeting in March 2022. Another hawkish message sent by Powell was his acknowledgment of stronger inflation risks, i.e., that inflation may turn out to be more lasting than expected now: There’s a real risk now, we believe, I believe, that inflation may be more persistent and that may be putting inflation expectations under pressure. And that the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched has increased, it’s certainly increased. I don’t think it’s high at this moment, but I think it’s increased. And I think that’s part of the reason behind our move today, is to put ourselves in a position to be able to deal with that risk. Thus, the Fed has become more concerned about high inflation and has timidly started reacting to it. The acceleration in the pace of tapering was, except for the more hawkish rhetoric, the first step – but not the last one.   Implications for Gold The yellow metal responded surprisingly well to the last FOMC meeting, at which the Fed announced a more aggressive pace of tapering and rate hikes next year. As the chart below shows, gold rose almost $40, or more than 2%, from Wednesday to Friday last week, jumping again above the key level of $1,800. Perhaps investors expected even more forceful actions. After all, despite all the hawkish reaction, the Fed remains behind the curve and shows no hurry to become really proactive. Such a passive attitude is really risky, as history teaches us that high inflation doesn’t just go away on its own, but its stabilization requires a decisive tightening of monetary policy. The longer the Fed waits, the more severe reaction would be needed, which increases the odds of putting the economy into recession. All this seems bullish for gold prices. However, gold was unable to retain its position above $1,800 and declined on Monday (December 20, 2021), so gold bulls can only hope that the yellow metal will the find strength to rally next year. It’s possible if inflation wreaks more havoc in 2022, but a hawkish Fed’s rhetoric remains an important headwind for the gold market. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500 made a first step towards the turnaround higher in the opening part of this week. Fading the rally is being countered, and yesterday‘s omicron policy response fears are being duly reversed. For the time being, Fed‘s liquidity is still being added – the real wildcard moving the markets, is corona these days. Credit markets are in the early stages of heralding risk-on appetite as returning. As stated yesterday when mentioning my 2022 outlook: (…) Fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure. Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar? The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. … Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already... For now, the year end squaring the books trading can go on, and positive Santa Claus seasonality can make itself heard still. The crypto turn that I had been looking for on the weekend, is happening with strength today. Likewise the oil and copper recovery spilling over into silver, and the reasonably good performance returning to many value stocks too. Very constructive action. In short, the bulls have a good rebound opportunity into Christmas. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is waking up, and odds are the move would bring it back above the 50-day moving average. Looking at the volume, it‘s as if fresh sellers were nowhere to be found. Credit Markets HYG made an attempt to come back, and comparing it to the quality end of the bond spectrum results in a good impression – one of risk-on return approaching. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downswing isn‘t to be taken too seriously – odds are strong that gold and silver would ride the risk-on return with gains added. It‘s about liquidity not being withdrawn by the market players. Crude Oil Crude oil recoved from the omicron uncertainty – to a good degree, which is a testament to the overwhelming pressure for prices to keep rising. The $72 area setback could be coming back into play still this week, if nothing too surprising happens. Copper Copper is leaning to the bullish side of the spectrum, driven not only by positive fundamentals and Chile elections. The low volume indeed hinted at little willingness to sell – so, let‘s look for a good attempt to rise next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum weakness is being decisively rejected, mirroring commodities – the decline indeed hasn‘t been in the disastrous category. The bulls clearly want to move. Summary S&P 500 and oil are rebounding from the omicron response pinch – and it‘s good we see cryptos doing the same. Corona wildcard has calmed down a little, and market breadth is making baby steps to improve. In this environment, high beta assets look poised to erase prior setbacks a little faster today, and can keep those gains unless a fresh bad headline strikes. One more tailwind – at least when it comes to real assets, for sure – is inflation coming back to the spotlight, which is what we‘ll have to wait for some more time still. But it‘ll happen. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Gold is barely crawling up, while silver is boldly climbing the market ladder. When will its rungs turn slippery, causing the precious metal to fall?  Yesterday’s session was particularly uneventful in the case of the precious metals market, as crude oil and the general stock market stole the spotlight. Consequently, today’s analysis will focus on what’s happening in pre-market trading, as that’s what appears to be more important. At the moment of writing these words, gold is up very modestly – less than 0.2%. Consequently, after rallying to about $1,815 (in tune with my Thursday’s analysis) and invalidating the breakout above the rising resistance line, gold appears to be making another attempt to rally, but the strength of the move is very limited. Predicting higher gold prices might not be the best idea here, as the yellow metal was not able to even get to the red line, let alone to its previous monthly high. Silver, on the other hand, has moved quite visibly higher so far today. While gold moved higher by less than 0.2%, silver rallied by about 1.5% and is now trading very close to its previous monthly highs. This is very interesting, because silver is showing strength and weakness at once. How is that possible – one might ask. It’s the same as with trends or forecasts for silver. They can be bearish and bullish simultaneously, depending on the time frame that one focuses on. For example, I think that the very long-term outlook for silver is extremely bullish, but I also think that the medium-term trend is bearish. The short-term trend is also bearish, but the immediate-term trend is bullish. So, am I bullish or bearish on silver? Answering this without specifying the time frame is bound to create misunderstandings. Getting back to silver’s relative performance, it’s been weak when taking into account the last couple of weeks – please note how little of the recent monthly decline silver has corrected compared to gold. Gold recently moved to its October highs, but silver topped a few dollars below its October high. What does it tell us? Silver is likely to fall hard, also compared to gold, probably in tune with the general stock market – similarly to what happened in 2008 and 2020. That’s the same kind of performance that we saw in the very early parts of the huge declines. At the same time, silver is strong compared to gold on an immediate-term basis. This means that we’re likely at or close to a short-term top. Why? Because that’s what the precious metals market tends to do when it’s topping, and it’s one of the great gold trading tips to monitor the PM market for these situations. One could debate why this is really the case, and there are quite a few theories (the silver market is smaller, so more prone to sudden moves, etc.), but the point is that it simply works. Please note that some things – like the Pareto principle (a.k.a. the 20:80 rule) – can work and be very useful, even if it’s not clear why they work. Consequently, it seems that the days of this short-term corrective upswing are either over or about to be over, and that the precious metals sector will return to its medium-term decline any day now. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XAUUSD seeks support Gold softens as the US dollar edged higher. A surge above 1788 and then 1808 has prompted the bears to cover. The precious metal is looking for support after the breakout stalled with an overextended RSI. A bearish MA cross may weigh on short-term sentiment. The base of the initial breakout around 1770 is a key support. A deeper correction would lead to the daily support at 1753, a critical level to keep the rebound relevant. Gold may climb towards 1850 if the bulls succeed in pushing above 1814. USDCAD consolidates gains The Canadian dollar recouped some losses after better-than-expected retail sales. A break above the major daily resistance at 1.2930 has put the bulls back in control of the direction. The RSI’s repeated overbought situation may cause a temporary pullback. Trend followers would be looking to jump in at a better price. 1.2880 is the closest support. Sentiment would remain upbeat as long as price action is above 1.2770. A rally above the intermediate resistance at 1.2960 may trigger an extended rally towards 1.3200. UK 100 makes a bullish attempt The FTSE 100 recovered some ground after the Omicron sell-off. The index has found solid buying at 7110. An oversold RSI has attracted a buying-the-dips crowd. A tentative break above 7300 suggests strong interest in keeping the market afloat. A bullish MA cross could lead to an acceleration on the upside. 7385 is a major hurdle on the daily chart. Its breach could cause a runaway rally and resume the uptrend. On the downside, 7250 is the first support, and 7110 is the second line of defense in case of weakness.

The main currency market pair, EURUSD, is trading in a sideways pattern of around 100 pips, rarely breaking out of it for long. The observed balance is very fragile. The news backdrop from Europe and the US has been very mixed regarding monetary policy and overall demand for risky assets. When we look at the situation from a short-term perspective, the fundamental analysis is clearly against the Euro for now. Officially, the ECB has not backed down from its position that inflation is temporary, in stark contrast to the reversal of rhetoric and the acceleration of tapering from the Fed. From this perspective, the Eurozone’s lag in the rate hike cycle has so far only increased, which should reduce interest in the region’s bonds and put pressure on the Euro. It seems that on the Euro’s side now is profit-taking from short sells after it has weakened by 8% and 6.5% against the Dollar and the Pound so far this year. Also supporting the single currency could be the expectation that monetary tightening in the US, Britain, and a host of emerging economies will keep inflationary pressures in check, allowing the ECB to do its bit. However, it is more likely that the current lull in EURUSD is only a temporary balance of power, which will be broken at the start of the new year as big players return to the market with ideas for new trades. The pause in the EURUSD decline observed in recent weeks is not a sign of ironclad support in the Euro at current levels. Instead, it is a local retracement of positions. And, after a pause, EURUSD will head further down to the multi-year lows at 1.05-1.07.

S&P 500 duly rallied on broad strength, and credit markets performance bodes well for all risk-on assets. Now a little consolidation after yesterday‘s steep gains is ahead, but I don‘t see it as derailing future gains. The stock bull run isn‘t over, and doesn‘t need the infrastructure bill for its further advance, price action shows. The VIX is calming down, now around 21 with further room to decline still – at least as far as the remainder of 2021 is concerned. Commodities remain in rally mode after the recent correction, and crude oil sending a bullish message (and not one of fear) is a welcome sign. The same goes for copper moving in sync with the rest of the commodities – and that has positive implications for silver too. Precious metals though still remain a patience trade, where the risks of being out of the markets outweight those of being in – it‘s a bet on the Fed making a wrong tapering / tightening move – with the market figuring out so beforehand. It sure would come as the compressing yield spreads reveal that is the greatest fear, but we aren‘t there yet. Finally, cryptos cautious mood today illustrates the certainly less exciting session just ahead than was the case yesterday. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 has woken up, and indeed surpassed the 50-day moving average. The lower volume isn‘t an issue, but a little consolidation is ahead today – not a steep rally continuation. Credit Markets HYG jumped higher in a giant risk-on nod that is further confirmed by the quality bonds performance. Again, I‘m looking for a little consolidation here today as well. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold downswing isn‘t to be taken at all seriously – I‘m looking for more gains in both the yellow and white metals, at their own and relatively slow pace. The countdown to Fed policy mistake and inflation returning to the limelight, is on. Crude Oil Crude oil scored a nice upswing, oil stocks confirmed as well the return of strength into the stock market, and both black gold and S&P 500 can keep rising together over the next days. Chances are the $72 area setback could be coming back into play still this week. Copper Copper keeps agreeing with the risk-on turn, and is certainly primed to go much higher over the nearest weeks and months. Similarly to uranium, I remain bullish on the sector, especially since copper, silver, nickel and lithium are all green economy preconditions. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum time to consolidate yesterday‘s gains, is here – and I‘m not looking for a bullish picture based on Ethereum performance. Sideways to a little down, that‘s the most likely outcome before the bulls move again. Summary Consolidation of yesterday‘s steep S&P 500 and commodity gains is ahead for today, but the Santa Claus rally is by no means over. Even if oil and cryptos hesitate a little, the constructive message from bonds and copper is overpowering that in my view. As explained in detail within the opening part of today‘s analysis, the bulls have to odds to keep moving – and will likely take advantage thereof before the year is over. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Gold advances during the New York session, some 0.19%. A mixed market mood and broad US dollar weakness keep investors using gold to hedge higher inflation as US PCE data looms. XAU/USD Technical Outlook: Neutral-bearish, unless gold bulls reclaim $1,793. Gold (XAU/USD) edged higher during the New York session, trading at $1,791.63 at the time of writing. The market sentiment is upbeat, though US equity indices fluctuate between gainers and losers. Additionally, the US dollar weakened across the board, while US T-bond yields, with the 10-year benchmark note, retreats after testing the 1.50% threshold in the overnight session. Factors like investors assessing the economic impact of the Omicron variant and the delay of the US President Joe Biden Build Back Better agenda dented market participants’ mood. That said, the US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against a basket of six currencies, edges lower 0.27%, down to 96.25. Furthermore, as previously mentioned, the 10-year Treasury yield is down some three basis points, at 1.457%, from 1.487% reached on Tuesday’s session. Before Wall Street opened, the US economic docket featured one of the last waves of data of 2021. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the US economy in the third-quarters grew at an annualized pace of 2.3%, higher than the 2.1% estimated. Moreover, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices rose by 5.3%, according to expectations. In the overnight session, gold remained subdued in a narrow range, between $1,785-$1,795. In the mid-European session, the non-yielding metal trended up, though faced strong resistance at the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA), retreating at press time to current levels. That said, unless XAU/USD decisively breaks above $1,793, the precious metal would remain bearish biased. XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook The XAU/USD daily chart depicts indecision, as shown by the daily moving averages (DMAs) almost “horizontally” contained in the $1,787-$1,800 range. From a market structure perspective, unless gold bulls reclaim $1,792.95, the bias is bearish, though to resume the trend, USD bulls would need a daily close below the December 16 pivot low at $1,775.40. On the way south, the first support would be the December 16 low at $1,775.40. A break beneath that level would exert downward pressure on the precious metal, exposing crucial support areas. The next one would be the December 2 low at $1,761.72, followed by the December 15 cycle low at $1,752.44 To the upside, the first resistance would be the December 8 cycle high at $1,792.95. A clear break of that level would immediately expose $1,800, followed by the September 3 swing high at $1,834.

Bitcoin price swept the liquidity resting above $49,527 and edged closer to retesting the $50,000 psychological level. Ethereum price could see a brief correction to solidify its breakout from the falling wedge pattern. Ripple price remains strong as it sets up a higher high, indicating a retest of $1 is likely. Bitcoin price is hovering around a crucial level after collecting liquidity above it. This development over the past 48 hours indicates that BTC will consolidate here before continuing its ascent. Ethereum and Ripple follow the pioneer crypto closely and show promise of gains soon. Bitcoin price faces a decisive moment Bitcoin price sliced through Monday’s high at $47,565 and collected the liquidity resting above $49,527. While BTC might head higher and retest the $50,000 psychological level, investors need to pay attention to the possibility that the big crypto might slide lower and sweep Monday’s low at $45,550. If buyers resist booking profits, there is a high chance BTC will retest $50,00 and make a run for last week’s high at $50,0835. In some cases, Bitcoin price might extend to the $53,618 resistance level. In total, this run-up would constitute an 8.6% ascent. BTC/USD 3-hour chart Increased profit-taking from holders could undo the gains seen over the past 48 hours. This development could knock BTC down to Monday’s lows at $45,550 or sweep last week’s lows at $45,438. Ethereum price needs to solidify its stance Ethereum price action since November 28 set up a falling wedge pattern. This setup is obtained by connecting the three lower lows and four lower highs formed during this period using trend lines. The technical formation forecasts a 16% upswing, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point at $3,912, which puts ETH at $4,533. So far, ETH has broken out of this pattern and crawled closer to retest the $4,155 resistance barrier. Initially, however, investors can expect a retracement to $3,912 or the 62% retracement level at $3,823. A bounce from these barriers will solidify the breakout and indicate that a 16% ascent to $4,535 is likely. ETH/USD 4-hour chart Regardless of the bullish pattern, if Ethereum price produces a lower low below $3,669, coinciding with the low of the trading range, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. In this case, ETH could revisit the $3,415 support floor. Ethereum price must reclaim $4,200 as support to resume bull run Ripple price remains strong Ripple price pierced through the declining trend line on December 18 and has rallied 19% to set up a swing high at $0.971. This run-up, while impressive, could extend to retest the $1.015 resistance level. In a bullish case, the XRP price could tag the $1.102 hurdle and collect the liquidity resting above it. However, it is unlikely that the remittance token will continue this ascent, especially since BTC might undergo a minor retracement. XRP/USD 4-hour chart Due to the correlation between the two, XRP price might follow the big crypto and undergo a correction. Moreover, the 19% ascent seen so far has collected the liquidity in its immediate vicinity and is likely to undergo a minor retracement. If this downswing pushes Ripple price below $0.688, it will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. XRP price looks primed for a break out to $1.75

EURUSD tests resistance The US dollar stalled over improved risk appetite. The pair is consolidating near June 2020’s lows. A bearish breakout would further extend the downtrend. The euro so far has found buyers at 1.1235. The bulls need to lift offers around 1.1360, the upper band of the recent consolidation range, before they could hope for a reversal. An extended rally may send the price to 1.1460. In the meantime, the RSI’s overbought situation could briefly limit the bullish push as intraday traders take profit near the resistance. GBPUSD makes a bullish attempt The sterling surged after Britain’s economy showed solid growth in Q3. A previous rebound to the supply zone near 1.3370 has put pressure on the short side. Then the pound found bids at 1.3170. Four attempts at this key support suggest a strong interest in keeping the price steady. 1.3370 is a major hurdle as it coincides with the 30-day moving average. A breakout could initiate a bullish reversal and propel the pound to 1.3500. An overbought RSI may cause a short pullback with 1.3240 as the closest support. USOIL awaits breakout WTI crude found support from a larger-than-expected decline in US inventories. Price action saw active buying above 66.00, keeping the early December rally valid in the process. The latest rebound is testing the supply zone around 73.30, which sits along the 30-day moving average. A close above this area of interest would force the bears to cover, paving the way for a rally towards 78.00. On the downside, 71.00 is the immediate support. And 68.50 is a second line of defense in case of a deeper correction.

Cryptocurrency market capitalisation little changed over the past 24 hours, losing 0.4% to $2.27 trillion. This can hardly be called a move for such a volatile crypto market. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index lost 11 points, dropping to 34, returning to fear territory. However, this comeback should be attributed more to the failure to develop growth rather than the price fall. However, we must admit that the currencies are not catching up with the optimism of the stock indices, and there is no sign of a Christmas rally. Bitcoin stalled on Wednesday at the $50K area and is trading again at $48.3K on Thursday morning. Ether was once again below $4K, another sign that too many traders are looking to lock in profits on the eve of a very successful year for cryptocurrencies. The relative share of Ether and Bitcoin has been falling over the past couple of days. The divergence between the equity market and the leading cryptocurrencies may be nothing more than a temporary phenomenon and a tactical shake-up of fund portfolios and large investors. However, it is still prudent for crypto investors to remain wary of near-term dynamics. The prolonged consolidation of significant cryptocurrencies creates a bad sentiment about the entire sector., Bitcoin’s sharp sell-off in early December clarifies that solid moves in the flagship cryptocurrencies are provoking altcoins into even greater amplitude.

S&P 500 Santa rally goes on, and risk-on markets rejoice. What a nice sight of market breadth improvement, and confirmation from bonds. Financials and industrials are lagging, but real estate, healthcare and tech are humming smoothly. As I told you yesterday about volatility: (…) The VIX is calming down, now around 21 with further room to decline still – at least as far as the remainder of 2021 is concerned. We got the lower values, and today is shaping up to look likewise constructively for the bulls across both paper and real assets. Yesterday‘s dollar decline has helped as much as well bid bonds. Inflation expectations aren‘t yet doubting the Fed, there is no more compressing the yield curve at the moment, so it‘s all quiet on the central bank front. That‘s good, the Santa rally can go on unimpeded. Precious metals are peeking higher in what looks to be adjustment to the lower yields and dollar, and commodities upswing remains driven by energy, base metals and agrifoods. Cryptos hesitation may hint at slimmer gains today than was the case yesterday when instead of a brief consolidation, we were treated to improving returns. Merry Christmas if you‘re celebrating – and if not, happy holidays spent with your closest ones. Let the festive season and message of the Prince of Peace permeate our hearts and inspire the best in mankind. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rally goes on, and the 4,720s are again approaching. Market breadth isn‘t miserable in the least, and the riskier end of the bond spectrum looks positive even if larger time frame worries haven‘t gone away. Classic Santa Claus rally. Credit Markets HYG keeps jumping higher – the risk-on sentiment is winning this week. A bit more strength from LQD would be welcome, but isn‘t an obstacle to further stock market gains. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold downswing indeed weren‘t to be taken at all seriously – solid gains across precious metals followed. I‘m expecting a not too rickety ride ahead as the metals keep appreciating at relatively slow pace. Crude Oil Crude oil extended gains, and even if oil stocks paused, downswing in black gold isn‘t looming. Importantly, the $72 area has been overcome – the bulls should be able to hold ground gained. Copper Copper keeps tracking the broader commodities rally, and isn‘t outperforming yet. The red metal‘s long consolidation goes on, and a breakout attempt on par with early Oct seems to be a question of quite a few weeks (not days) ahead. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are still consolidating Tuesday‘s gains – the performance is neither disappointing nor stellar. Both cryptos don‘t look to be in the mood for a break below Dec lows. Summary If not yesterday, then probably today we‘ll get a little consolidation of prior two day‘s steep S&P 500 and commodity gains (copper says) – the positive seasonality hasn‘t spoken its last word. HYG posture has significantly improved, and that bodes well for short-term gains still ahead before we dive into market circumstances turning increasingly volatile towards the end of Q1 2022. For now, let‘s keep celebrating – Merry Christmas once again – and enjoying the relatively smooth ride. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The Gold Update by Mark Mead Baillie --- 632nd Edition --- Monte-Carlo --- 25 December 2021 (published each Saturday) --- www.deMeadville.com Christmas Greetings to Everyone Everywhere. With but five trading days remaining in 2021, Gold -- as we'll show -- traditionally is the gift that keeps on giving into year-end. But first, we've this: The last time 25 December arrived on a Saturday was 11 years ago in 2010: â–  'Twas the date of Gold Update No. 58; today we're penning No. 632; â–  The price of Gold then was 1379; today 'tis 1810, (+31%) â–  The U.S. money supply ("M2" basis) then was $8.9 trillion; today 'tis $21.6 trillion, (+2.4x) â–  The supply of Gold then was 173.7 tonnes; today 'tis 202.8 tonnes, (+17%). Query, (courtesy of the "Fun With Numbers Dept."): Given across these past 11 years the +2.4x increase in the U.S. money supply, even as tempered for the duly noted +17% increase in the supply of Gold itself, ought its price nonetheless now be 2747? After all, currency debasement is the ultimate, primary driver of price, lagging as 'tis been. Further by the above opening Gold Scoreboard which comprehensively accounts for 41 years of currency debasement, more than double present price is Gold's valuation today of 4030! Thus analogous in reprising the infamous query of immortal football coach Vince Lombardi: "What da hell's goin' on out dere??" 'Course, you regular readers of The Gold Update know exactly what's goin' on out dere. 'Tis "The Age of the Shiny Object". Why purchase Gold -- as stated just +31% from this day of days 11 years ago -- when by merely owning the S&P 500 itself you've recorded a gain over same of +276%? Better still, how about your cryptocrap with its gains of +∞%? But wait, there's more: How are those NFTs workin' out for ya? (We think of them ultimately as "non-fundable tokens"). Then, too, is "The M Word" crowd: "Churn it and burn it, baby!" Or as Carly Simon might have sung it from back in '71: "Manipulation..." Regardless, with the S&P now at an all-time "Santa Claus Rally" closing high of 4726 (thank you record level of stock buybacks), Stoopid is sleeping securely because should the market dip from here, it always comes back, right? Arithmetically that's been undeniably true. Undeniably true as well by its historical track is the S&P's price/earnings ratio (our "live" read now 49.5x) having always returned to its median (at present 20.4x since the Index's inception nearly 65 years ago on 04 March 1957). So here's the crux: we've already accounted that year-over-year earnings' increases from a "shutdown 2020" to an "open 2021" were not sufficient enough to materially boost the "E" of the P/E such as to mitigate the ever-rocket-boosted "P". Therefore: the next reversion of the P/E to its 20.4x median essentially requires a move of the S&P from today's 4726 level down to 1948, (i.e. a -58.8% "dip"). But Stoopid worries not: "Been there, done that, it always comes back." Even as this time 'round rates rise, in turn ramping up that variably-priced interest on Stoopid's fully drawn credit cards. "Got Gold?" For which there is some good news, both aft and ahead. â–  Aft - Whilst during each of this past Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday Gold dealt with dilly-dallying 'round as usual in the 1780s, price finally saw its way clear to close on Thursday above 1800, its first weekly settle north of said number since that ending 19 November. â–  Ahead - Per this missive's title, 'tis time for Gold's annual finale rally, (our now pointing that out meaning it shan't occur). But it being a festive day, let's stay positive as traditionally is Gold's wont through the final five trading days of the year. For as the following table displays, Gold during this stint has risen in 17 of the 20 completed years thus far this millennium. We thus anticipate that for this 21st year of the 21st century, Gold shall be higher in a week's time than today's 1810 level: That is a statistical gift. Now here's one that is technical: The above graphic depicts Gold's daily "price oscillator" (a mainstay of the website's Market Rhythms page) during 2021's fourth quarter-to-date. The rightmost wee blue nub just crossed to positive, the trader's signal thus being to get Long Gold. The prior 12 such Long signals (dating back to 27 March 2020) saw upside price follow-throughs averaging as much as +77 points which in that vacuum from 1810 would be to 1887, the more conservative median being +31 points to 1841. No guarantees 'natch, but nicely on time to synch with Gold's annual finale rally should it come to pass. Meanwhile, unsurpassed for better than three years until just now is the current level of the Economic Barometer, which with but a week to run in 2021 saw this past week's set of 13 incoming metrics move the Baro to its highest oscillative level since 31 July 2018. Yes, there were a few weak links in the data: Q3's Current Account Deficit sagged to its worst level since Q3 2006; and although the quarter's final read on Gross Domestic Product increased to an annualized "growth" rate of +2.3%, that was more than double-mitigated by the party-pooper Chain Deflator being finalized at a +6.0% "growth" rate. (For you WestPalmBeachers down there, that basically means there is no real GDP "growth", but rather "stagflation"; look it up). Too, increases slowed in November's Personal Income and Spending. But highlighted were improvements in November's New and Existing Home Sales, Durable Orders and (not surprising should you follow the Baro) the Conference Board's Leading (i.e. lagging) Indicators. 'Course the real stinker was the Fed's favoured inflation read of Core Personal Consumption Expenditures coming in at an annualized pace of +6.0%. But, perhaps folks "just don't get it yet" given the level of Consumer Confidence (also per the Conference Board) rising in December to a five-month high. Here's the whole view: With respect to the Baro's having re-attained the noted 2018 level, 'twas after that the S&P 500 then declined into the year's Christmas Eve by -16.5%. Not that history shall repeat same going into next year: we anticipate worse -- far worse -- either by our "Look Ma, No Earnings!" crash (per the aforementioned P/E assessment), and/or by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Nominee Lael "The Brain" Brainard's "Climate Change!" crash. Also there's now ever-increasing amount of "Oh My! Omicron!" Still, upward economic gains along with increasing inflation strains both serve justice for the Fed to commence raising its Bank's Funds rate as early as 26 Jan. Which in turn means you'll have somewhere else to park your dough when the stock market doth over the cliff go. Get ready for "The Return of the Savings Account!" In theatres next Spring. 'Course far better than that, again: "Got Gold?" And don't forget Silver too! All so stated, New York FedPrez John "It's All Good" Williams looks to the Fed's rate rises as an economic positive -- which to his credit -- has historically synched with the beginning of higher interest rates. And perhaps more costly money can be withstood, Dow Jones Newswires this past week having referred to U.S. household wealth as "vast". Indeed per a year-old survey from the Fed, the median StateSide household wealth level is $122,000. (Admittedly, we did not dig sufficiently deep into the data to divulge if that includes proceeds from the aforementioned fully-drawn credit cards). Next let's fully draw our two-panel graphic of Gold's daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and the 10-day Market Profile on the right. Especially encouraging therein are Gold's "Baby Blues" penetrating up through their 0% axis in confirming the regression trend having rotated to positive. And the Profile shows the most dominant trading level of the past two weeks as (no surprise) 1787: With the same drill for Silver, we see her "Baby Blues" (below left) in accelerating ascent, albeit the low 23s may be a sticky wicket there. Still, her Profile (below right) appears supportive for the mid-to-lower 22s, (and happy winkies to you too there, Sister Silver): Time to wrap it up from here with this note: it again appears The World Elites' Economic Forum in Davos is being "deferred", the great convening over The Great Reset to instead take place toward early summer. Bit of an economic inflow delay there for little ole Switzerland, but we have it on well-vetted authority they'll manage. The small alpine nation may rank just 135th by size and 101st by population. But it ranks seventh in total Gold holdings and far and away first in per capita Gold wealth: there is one tonne of Gold for every 8,322 people which (in sparing you the math) is $7,672 per Swiss resident. (Italy is a distant second at $2,589). "And Season's Greetings to you, mmb!" Thank you, Squire, and our very best to you 'n yours, all the little Squires down the line, and absolutely as well to our star readers right 'round the world! Everyone take care, and don't forget the real star: Gold! Cheers! ...m... www.deMeadville.com www.TheGoldUpdate.com

Santa Claus is coming to town! What will he give gold: a gift or a rod? During the holiday week, not much happens in the marketplace. Investors focus on two things right now: whether Democrats will be able to pass Biden’s spending bill in the face of Senator Joe Manchin’s opposition, and whether the coronavirus Omicron variant will trigger new restrictions and hamper economic growth. After all, this strain has already become the dominant one in the US, but its effects are not yet known. Like most of 2021, gold has been rubbing against $1,800 this week but did not have the strength to permanently rise above this level. Despite a surge in inflation and very low real interest rates, the yellow metal didn’t rally. Thus, we could say that gold was rather naughty this year and doesn’t deserve gifts from Santa. However, maybe it’s not gold’s fault, but our too high expectations? After all, gold had to compete with cryptocurrencies and industrial metals (or commodities in general), both of which performed exceptionally well during periods of high inflation. Despite all the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and tapering of quantitative easing, gold didn’t break down. Hence, it all depends on the perspective. The same applies to historical analyses and forecasts for 2022. The bears compare the current situation with the 2011-2013 period. The 2020 peak looked like the 2011 peak. Thus, after a period of consolidation, we could see a big decline, just as it happened in 2013. On the other hand, gold bulls prefer to compare today with 2015, as we are only a few months away from the Fed’s interest rate hikes. As a reminder, gold bottomed in December 2015, so the hope is that we will see another bottom soon, followed by an upward move. In other words, the bears believe that the replay of the “taper tantrum” is still ahead of us, while the bulls claim that the worst is already behind us.   Implications for Gold Who is right? Of course, me! But seriously: both sides make valid points. Contrary to 2013, the current tapering was well telegraphed and well received by the markets. Thus, the worst can indeed be already behind us. Especially that the 2020 economic crisis was very deep, but also very short, so everything was very condensed. I mean: the Great Recession lasted one and a half years, while the Great Lockdown lasted only two months. The first taper tantrum occurred in 2013, while the first hike in the federal funds rate – at the end of 2015. We won’t wait that long now, so the period of downward pressure on gold prices stemming from expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle will be limited. Having said that, gold bears highlight an important point: real interest rates haven’t normalized yet. As the chart below shows, although nominal bond yields have rebounded somewhat from the August 2020 bottom, real rates haven’t followed. The reason was, of course, the surge in inflation. However, if inflation eases, inflation-adjusted rates will go up. Additional risk here is that the Fed will surprise the markets on a hawkish side. The bottom line is that Santa Claus may bring gold a rod this time. Although gold’s reaction to the recent FOMC meeting was solid, the overall performance of the yellow metal this month is worse compared to the historically strong action in December. I don’t expect a similarly strong downward move as in 2013, but real interest rates could normalize somewhat in 2022, given the upcoming Fed’s tightening cycle and possible peak in inflation. The level of indebtedness will limit the scope of the move, but it won’t change the direction. Anyway, whether you are a gold bull or a gold bear, I wish you a truly merry and golden Christmas (or just winter holidays)! Let the profits shine, even if gold won’t! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

USDJPY breaks higher The US dollar inched higher after November’s core PCE jumped to 4.7%. A break above the supply area near 114.20 indicates that the bulls have gained the upper hand. As sellers rush to the exit, the pair may enjoy solid support above the former resistance at 114.05. An overbought RSI has temporarily limited the initial breakout range. After a short accumulation phase, the bulls may have an unobstructed path towards the psychological level of 115.00. That is a major hurdle right under the previous peak. USDCAD retreats to daily support The Canadian dollar bounces back as GDP growth gained traction in October. The US dollar is struggling for support after its tentative break above the August high at 1.2950. A retreat below 1.2900 has led traders to dump leveraged positions. The pair is testing the daily support at 1.2760 which lies along the 30-day moving average. And this makes it an area of interest for the bulls to attempt a rebound. 1.2920 is a fresh resistance ahead. A deeper correction may send the greenback to 1.2650 near December’s lows. US 100 completes V-shaped recovery The Nasdaq 100 continues to recover as improved economic data outweigh covid concerns. The index has met solid buying interest near 15600. This used to be a supply zone from last September. Since then it has recouped losses from the recent liquidation. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a brief pullback while short-term traders take profit. 16170 is the closest support and 15850 is another layer of defense. On the upside, a break above 16460 could extend the rally to the all-time high at 16770 and beyond.

S&P 500 and risk-on assets continued rallying, pausing only before the close. Santa Claus delivered, and the final trading week of 2021 is here. With the dollar pausing and VIX at 18 again, we‘re certainly enjoying better days while clouds gather on the horizon – Thursday‘s inability of financials to keep intraday gains while yields rose, is but one albeit short-term sign. The Fed is still accomodative (just see the balance sheet expansion for Dec – this is really tapering), didn‘t get into the headlines with fresh hawkish statements, and inflation expectations keep rising from subdued levels. Importantly, bonds prices aren‘t taking it on the chin, and the dollar hasn‘t made much progress since late Nov. Both tech and value are challenging their recent highs, and the ratio of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, is improving. The same for new highs new lows – the market breadth indicators are picking up. We haven‘t seen the stock market top yet – the rickety ride higher isn‘t over, Santa Claus rally goes on, and my 2022 outlook with targets discussed that a week ago. Precious metals are extending gains, and aren‘t yet raging ahead – the picture is one of welcome strength returning across the board. The same goes for crude oil finally rising solidly above $72 as the omicron fears are receding in light of fresh incoming data including South African policies. It‘s only copper that‘s now reflecting the prospects of real economy slowdown. At the same time, the crypto rebound last week served as a confirmation of broad risk-on advance. Still more to come, as per Thursday‘s article title. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is within spitting distance of ATHs, and the bulls haven‘t said the last word in spite of the approaching need to take a rest. It‘s rally on, for now. Credit Markets HYG has finally overcome the Sep highs, but its vulnerability at current levels is best viewed from the point of view of LQD underperformance. Investment grade corporate bonds could have been trading higher compared to the progress made by TLT. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are looking up, and so are miners – the upswing isn‘t overheated one bit, and can go on as we keep consolidating with an increasingly bullish bias. Crude Oil Crude oil once again extended gains, and even if oil stocks are a little lagging, the medium-term bullish bias in black gold remains. The path of least resistance is once again up. Copper Copper at least closed unchanged – the fresh steep rally indeed seems more than quite a few weeks ahead. But the table for further gains is set. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are entering the final trading week of 2021 in good shape. The rising tide of liquidity is still lifting all boats in a rather orderly way. Summary Thursday brought a proper finish to the Christmas week, and we‘re not staring at a disastrous finish to 2021 across the board. Short-term extended, but overall very positive bond market performance is aligned, and we can look for positive entry to 2022 in stocks, precious metals, oil, copper and cryptos alike. Shrinking global liquidity, no infrastructure bill, and consolidating dollar complete the backdrop of challenges that would make themselves heard well before Q2 2022 arrives. I hope you had Merry Christmas once again, and will also enjoy the relatively smooth ride while it lasts – 2022 will be still a good year, but with its fair share of corrections. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

AUDUSD falls back for support The Australian dollar pulls back as risk assets tread water amid low liquidity. A break above the previous high at 0.7220 reveals a strong bullish bias. However, the RSI’s repeatedly overbought situation may have prompted short-term buyers to take some chips off the table. In turn, this left price action vulnerable to retracement. 0.7200 is the closest support. Its breach would trigger a deeper correction towards 0.7120. A close above 0.7250 may resume the reversal and carry the Aussie to the daily resistance at 0.7360. USDCHF tests consolidation range The US dollar softens over weaker Treasury yields. The pair’s latest rebound has met aggressive selling at the upper bound of the consolidation range near 0.9250. That is a sign of lingering bearish pressure. The greenback is testing the lower bound near 0.9160. Range traders were eager to buy the dip as the RSI ventured into the oversold zone. 0.9210 is an intermediate hurdle leading to the upper limit where a breakout could trigger a bullish reversal towards 0.9350. Otherwise, a drop below 0.9160 may send the pair to 0.9100. EURJPY breaks higher The Japanese yen weakened after Japan’s jobless rate rose to 2.8% in November. The long side has gained the upper hand after they pushed above 129.60. A bullish MA cross following a brief consolidation indicates an acceleration in the upward momentum. A break above the psychological level of 130.00 would set 130.60 as the next target, clearing the path for a rally to 131.30. An overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback. 129.20 from the previous supply zone has become a fresh support.

EUR/USD seems to have settled above key technical level. Hot inflation data from the US helped the dollar limit its losses. Trading conditions in financial markets thin out on Christmas Eve. EUR/USD seems to have steadied around mid-1.1300s on Friday as the trading action turns subdued on Christmas Eve. The near-term bullish outlook remains intact for the pair but thin trading conditions are likely to limit the movements in the remainder of the day. The data published by the US Burau of Economic Analysis revealed on Thursday that the annual Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, jumped to 4.7% in November from 4.2% in October. This print surpassed the market expectation of 4.2% and helped the dollar stay resilient against its rivals in the second half of the day. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edged higher toward 1.5% after the inflation report and according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing a 53.8% probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate hike in March. Bond and stock markets in the US will be closed on Friday and investors will keep an eye on technical levels when they return on Monday. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is moving sideways around 60, suggesting that sellers are showing no interest in the pair for the time being. Additionally, the last four candles on the same chart closed above the 200-period SMA; confirming the bullish bias in the near term. Static resistance seems to have formed at 1.1340 ahead of 1.1360 (post-ECB high on December 16) and 1.1380 (November 30 high). On the downside, support is located at 1.1310 (200-period SMA) and 1.1290 (50-period SMA).

High inflation won’t go away in 2022. Good for gold. However, it is likely to continue to climb and reach its peak. That sounds a bit worse for gold. If 2021 was tough for you, I don’t recommend reading Nostradamus’ predictions for the next year. This famous French astrologer saw inflation, hunger, and much more coming in 2022: So high the price of wheat, That man is stirred His fellow man to eat in his despair Yuk! So, life is about to get a little more complicated: we must now avoid becoming infected and being eaten by our fellow citizens! If you are interested in how cannibalism will affect the gold market, I’m afraid that I don’t have adequate data. Anyway, if you end up in the pot together with vegetables and your colleagues, gold’s performance probably won’t be your top priority. Hence, let’s focus on inflation. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the latest data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. This measure of inflation surged 5.7% in the 12 months ended in November, which was the fastest increase since July 1982. Meanwhile, as the chart below shows, the core index, which excludes energy and food, rose 4.7%. It was the highest jump since February 1989. This is very important, as it shows that inflation is not elevated merely by rising energy prices. Instead, it’s more broad-based, which can make inflation more lasting. Indeed, there are strong reasons to expect that high inflation will stay with us in 2022. As the chart below shows, the shelter index – the biggest CPI component – has been rising recently, which should move the whole index up. In other words, surging home prices could translate into higher rents, supporting consumer inflation. Additionally, the Producer Price Index has also been rallying this year. The final demand index rose 9.6% on an annual basis in November, the largest advance since 12-month data was first calculated in late 2010. Moreover, the commodity index surged 23%, and it was the highest jump since November 1974. All this indicates that inflationary pressure remains strong. Implications for Gold To be clear, inflation will eventually peak, and this will probably happen in 2022. This is because a one-time helicopter drop (the surge in the money supply) leads to a one-time jump in the price level. However, inflation is like toothpaste. It’s easy to get it out, but it’s difficult to get it back in again. To use another metaphor, if you wait with your actions until you see the whites of the eyes of a tiger, you can be eaten (sorry for being monothematic today!). This was exactly the Fed’s strategy with the inflationary tiger for most of 2021. Yes, the US central bank accelerated tapering of quantitative easing in December, but it remains behind the curve (or, to continue the metaphor, it’s still holding the tiger by the tail). What does it all mean for the gold market? High inflation should support gold prices. The expectations of a more hawkish Fed probably prevent a big rally, but ultra-low real interest rates are supportive of the yellow metal. However, what is one of my biggest worries for the next year (except for the perspective of being eaten by hungry neighbors) is how gold will react to the peak in inflation. Although inflation will stay elevated, it won’t rise indefinitely. When it peaks, real interest rates could go up, negatively affecting the yellow metal. Of course, one would say that the peak of inflation would be accompanied by a more dovish Fed, so disinflation doesn’t have to hurt gold, just as rising inflation didn’t make it shine. However, this is not so simple, and if inflation stays above 5%, the Fed could still feel obligated to act and bring inflation to its 2% target. Anyway, US monetary policy (together with fiscal policy) will be tighter compared to 2020 and to other major countries, which (together with a likely peak in inflation) creates a rather challenging macroeconomic environment for gold in 2022 (at least until worries about the negative consequences of the Fed’s tightening cycle emerge). If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

EURUSD tests important resistance The US dollar struggles as the Omicron scare subsides. The pair has been stuck in a narrow range between 1.1230 and 1.1360, because of a lack of liquidity and a catalyst. Following a bounce from 1.1260 price action is testing the upper band of the horizontal consolidation. A bullish breakout would pop up volatility as sellers rush for the exit. An extended rally would set 1.1450 as the next target. On the downside, a fall below 1.1260 may prolong the sideways action for a few more days. NZDUSD consolidates recent gains The New Zealand dollar softens over a limited year-end risk appetite. The latest surge above 0.6830 has put the bears on the defensive. Intraday traders took profit after the RSI showed overextension. The current flag-shaped consolidation could be an opportunity for the bulls to regroup and catch their breath. The demand zone around 0.6760 is a major level to support the rebound. On the upside, 0.6840 on the 30-day moving average is the closest resistance. And its breach may trigger a broader rally towards 0.6920. XAUUSD seeks support Gold edged higher as the US dollar slipped across the board. A close above the supply zone around 1815 is a short-term confirmation that sentiment favors the upside. A bullish MA cross on the hourly chart indicates that the recovery could be picking up steam. Above 1820, 1840 would be the target when momentum makes its way back into the market. In the meantime, buyers may see a retracement to 1803 as an opportunity to buy the dip after the RSI returned to the neutrality area. 1790 is a second level of support.

Broad S&P 500 rally is spilling over to precious metals and commodities – Santa Claus leaves no stone unturned, apparently. Not that yields or the dollar would move much yesterday – it‘s the omicron response relief (thus far. yet APT has risen sharply to counter the bullish and wildly profitable oil message) coupled with the yesterday mentioned market friendly Fed: (…) The Fed is still accomodative (just see the balance sheet expansion for Dec – this is really tapering), didn‘t get into the headlines with fresh hawkish statements, and inflation expectations keep rising from subdued levels. Even though junk bonds retreated from intraday highs, the rally isn‘t over yet – VIX remaining around 18 is the best that the stock bulls can hope for today (i.e. a sluggish day still retaining bullish bias). Financials and industrials had a good day, but consumer discretionaries to staples ratio leaves more than a bit to be desired. The same goes for the financials to utilities ratio. Yes, the horizon is darkening, but further gains for weeks to months to come, still lie ahead. Remember, the topping process is about fewer and fewer sectors pulling their weight, about the market generals not being followed by the troops in the coming advance. We‘re not quite there yet. The Fed didn‘t really taper much in Dec, thus the jubilant close to 2021 across the board. The compressed yield curve would eventually invert – regardless of the current levels of inflation, the GDP growth can still support higher stock prices. Precious metals and commodities would though become an increasingly appealing proposition as I‘m not looking for the Fed to be able to break inflation. The tightening risks are clearly seen in market bets via compressed yields, so they‘ll attempt to not only talk a good game – they will act, and the risks of breaking something (real economy) would grow. That‘s the message from Treasuries – hawkish monetary policy mistake is feared and increasingly expected. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 market breadth again improved – the increasing participation shows that the bull run isn‘t clearly over. And it also reveals that this isn‘t yet the time to expect a new correction. Credit Markets HYG stalled a little, but doesn‘t look to have definitely peaked. One look at LQD reveals the nuanced risk-off turn yesterday, which might not interfere with further stock market gains today though). Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver paused, but I‘m treating it as a daily pause in an otherwise developing uptrend. Once the inflation expectations stop being as steady as they had been yesterday, the metals will like that. Crude Oil Crude oil is strongly up, and oil stocks confirm. The $78 zone comes next, and could take a few days to be reached. Copper Copper still hasn‘t arrived at true fireworks – but the long consolidation is being resolved in a bullish way (of course). Broader commodities are showing that the path of least resistance is higher in the red metal as well. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are foretelling stiffer headwinds than had been the case recently. I don‘t think this is a start of a genuine downtrend. Summary Santa Claus rally naturally goes on, and yesterday‘s steep gains are likely to be followed with deceleration today – at least in stocks. Precious metals and commodities are catching up, and we‘re looking at a very positive close to 2021 across the board. The same goes for optimistic entry to 2022 in stocks, precious metals, oil, copper and cryptos alike – in Bitcoin though, I would like to see today‘s lows hold, and Ethereum to spring higher faster than Bitcoin. On a very short-term basis, S&P 500 and oil are extended today, and some trepidation shouldn‘t be surprising. The medium-term trends remain unchanged, and lead higher. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

As the US and global markets rattle around over the past 60+ days, many traders have failed to identify an incredible opportunity setting up in both Gold and Silver. Historically, Silver is extremely undervalued compared to Gold right now. In fact, Gold has continued to stay above $1675 over the past 12+ months while Silver has collapsed from highs near $30 to a current price low near $22 – a -26% decline. Many traders use the Gold/Silver Ratio as a measure of price comparison between these two metals. Both Gold and Silver act as a hedge at times when market fear rises. But Gold is typically a better long-term store of value compared to Silver. Silver often reacts more aggressively at times of great fear or uncertainty in the global markets and often rises much faster than Gold in percentage terms when fear peaks. Understanding the Gold/Silver ratio The Gold/Silver ratio is simply the price of Gold divided by the price of Silver. This creates a ratio of the price action (like a spread) that allows us to measure if Gold is holding its value better than Silver or not. If the ratio falls, then the price of Silver is advancing faster than the price of Gold. If the ratio rises, then the price of Gold is advancing faster than the price of Silver. Right now, the Gold/Silver ratio is above 0.80 – well above a historically normal level, which is usually closer to 0.64. I believe the current ratio level suggests both Gold and Silver are poised for a fairly big upward price trend in 2022 and beyond. This may become an exaggerated upward price trend if the global market deleveraging and revaluation events rattle the markets in early 2022. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don't miss the next opportunity! I expect to see the Gold/Silver ratio fall to levels below 0.75 before July/August 2022 as both Gold and Silver begin to move higher in Q1:2022. Some event will likely shake investor confidence in early 2022, causing precious metals to move 15% to 25% higher initially. After that initial move is complete, further fallout related to the deleveraging throughout the globe, post-COVID, may prompt an even bigger move in metals later on in 2022 and into 2023. COVID Disrupted The 8~9 Year Appreciation/Depreciation Cycle Trends In May 2021, I published an article suggesting the US Dollar may slip below 90 while the US and global markets shift into a Deflationary cycle that lasts until 2028~29 (Source: The Technical Traders). I still believe the markets will enter this longer-term cycle and shift away from the broad reflation trade that has taken place over the past 24+ months – it is just a matter of time. If my research is correct, the disruption created by the COVID virus may result in a violent reversion event that could alter how the global markets react to the deleveraging and revaluation process that is likely to take place. I suggest the COVID virus event may have disrupted global market trends because the excess capital poured into the global markets prompted a very strong rise in price levels throughout the world in real estate, commodities, food, technology, and many other everyday products. The opposite type of trend would have likely happened if the COVID event had taken place without the excessive capital deployed into the global markets. Demand would have diminished. Price levels would have fallen. Demand for commodities and other technology would have fallen too. That didn't happen. The opposite type of global market trend took place, and prices rose faster than anyone expected. Markets Tend To Revert After Extreme Events As much as we may want to see these trends continue forever, any trader knows that markets tend to revert after extreme market trends or events. In fact, there are a whole set of traders that focus on these “reversion events.” They wait for extreme events to occur, then attempt to trade the “reversion to a mean” event in price action. My research suggests the COVID virus event may have created a hyper-cycle event between early 2020 and December 2021 (roughly 24 months). My research also suggests a global market deleveraging/revaluation event may be starting in early 2022. If my research is correct, the recent lows in Gold and Silver will continue to be tested in early 2022, but Gold and Silver will start to move much higher as fear and concern start to rattle the markets. As asset prices revert and continue to search for proper valuation levels, Gold and Silver may continue to rally in various phases through 2028~2030. Initially, I expect a 50% to 60% rally in Silver, targeting the $33.50 to $36.00 price level. For SILJ, Junior Silver Miners, I expect an initial move above $20 (representing a 60%+ rally), followed by a follow-through rally targeting the $25.00 level (more than 215% from recent lows). I believe the lack of focus on precious metals over the past 12+ months may have created a very unusual and efficient dislocation in the price for Silver compared to Gold. This setup may present very real opportunities for Silver to rally much faster than Gold over the next 24+ months – possibly longer. If my research is correct, the Junior Silver Miners ETF, SILJ, presents a very good opportunity for profits. Want to learn more about the movements of Gold, Silver, and their Miners? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. If you need technically proven trading and investing strategies using ETFs to profit during market rallies and to avoid/profit from market declines, be sure to join me at TEP – Total ETF Portfolio. Pay particular attention to what is quickly becoming my favorite strategy for income, growth, and retirement - The Technical Index & Bond Trader. Have a great day!

I find it interesting that so much speculation related to the US Federal Reserve drives investor concern and trends. In my opinion, the US Federal Reserve has been much more accommodating for the global economy after the 2008-09 US Housing Market crash. The new US Bank Stress Tests and Capital Requirements have allowed the US to move away from risk factors that may currently plague the global markets. What do I mean by this statement? US Fed Continues To Maintain Extremely Accommodative Monetary Policy Over the past 12+ years, after the 2008-09 US Housing Market collapse, the US Federal Reserve has acted to support the US and global economy while the US Congress and US Federal Reserve have acted to build a stronger foundation for US banking and financial institutions. The most important aspect of this is the Capital Requirements that require an operating US bank to hold a minimum amount of reserve capital (Source: Federal Reserve). The US Federal Reserve installed this program to prevent US banks from over-leveraging their liabilities based on the 2008-09 Housing Market Crisis lessons. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! There are still risks associated with a complete global economic collapse – where consumers, banking institutions, and economic activity grinds to a halt because of some external or unknown factor. Yet, the risks of a US-based collapse based on excessive Banking or other financial institution liabilities are somewhat limited in today's US Economy. Although, globally, the risks have accelerated over the past 12+ years while the US Federal Reserve maintained a very accommodative monetary policy. Historical US Federal Reserve Actions Let's review some of the most significant US Federal Reserve actions over the past 25 years. Early/Mid-1990s: The Fed raised the FFR from 3.0% to 6.5% to 7.0% as the DOT COM Rally continued to build strength. 1998/1999: The Fed dropped the FFR to 4.0% as the DOT COM bubble became frothy and started to fracture/burst. Early 2000: The Fed raised the FFR from 4.0% to 6.86% over just five months, pushing the cost of borrowing above 7.5%~8.5% in the open market. Late 2000/Early 2001: The September 2001 Terrorist Attack on the US pushed the Fed to lower the FFR to 1.0% by December 2002. Before the 9/11 attack, the Fed lowered the FFR after the DOT COM bubble burst rattled the US economy and output. 2004/2006: The Fed raised the FFR from 1.0% to 5.5% (more than 550%) while the US Housing Market boom cycle pushed the US economy into overdrive. This was the biggest FFR rate increase since the 1958-1960 rate increase (from 0.25% to 4.0% - more than 1600%) or the 1961-1969 rate increase (from 0.50% to 9.75% - more than 1950%). 2007/2008: The Fed decreased the FFR from 5.5% to 0.05 (Dec 2009), effectively setting up a 0% interest rate while the US attempted to recover from the 2008-09 Housing Market Crisis. 2015/2020: the Fed attempted to raise the FFR from 0.08% to 2.40% as the US economy transitioned into a strong bullish breakout trend. When the US markets collapsed in early 2020 because of the COVID-19 virus, the Fed moved interest rates back to near 0% and have kept them there ever since. The deep FFR discounts/rates that started after the 1999/2000 DOT COM/9-11 events pushed foreign markets to borrow cheap US Dollars as a disconnect of capital costs and a growing foreign market economy allowed certain economic functions to continue. Borrowing cheap US Dollars while deploying that capital in foreign economies returning 4x to 10x profits allowed many foreign companies, individuals, and governments to build extremely dangerous debt levels – very quickly. (Source: ST Louis FED) Now, let's get down to the core differences between pre-1990 and post-1990 US Fed actions and global economy functions. US Fed Added Rocket Fuel To An Already Accelerating Global Economy Before 1985, foreign markets were struggling to gain their footing in the global economy. Larger global economies, like the US, Japan, Europe, and Canada, could outsource manufacturing, supplies, and labor into foreign nations that provided a strategic cost advantage. After 1994 or so, after the Asian Currency Crisis settled, the growth of manufacturing and labor in China/Asia started booming at an exponential rate. This prompted a 2x to 5x growth factor in many Asian nations over 10+ years. The 9-11 terrorist attacks briefly disrupted this trend, but it restarted quickly after 1994~1995. This high-speed growth phase in China/Asia after 1999 created a massive demand for credit and expansion as Asian consumers and economies grew at exponential rates from 1997 to now. The US Fed inadvertently promoted a global growth phase that resulted in the fastest global economic increase in history. Multiple foreign nations were able to take advantage of cheap US Dollars. At the same time, the US Fed acted to support the recovery of the US economy after 9-11 and the 2008-09 Housing/Credit crisis. Those cheap US Dollars continued after the COVID-19 turmoil in early 2020 and likely pushed already at-risk debtors over the edge as bond rates have started to price extensive risk factors. The result of these crisis events and the US Federal Reserve's continued easy monetary policy has been the fastest growth of assets the planet has seen in over 80 years. Not only have global economies grown in a parabolic phase, but the US stock market has also moved higher and higher after the 2010 bottom and the 2015-2016 shift towards higher US corporation earnings/revenues. Once the COVID-19 virus event hit in early 2020, the US Fed moved rates back to near 0% - supplying a nearly unlimited amount of rocket fuel for the global markets (again). The problem this time was the global COVID shutdowns essentially took the spark away from the fuel (capital). Now, we are waiting for the US Fed statements to close out 2021. I'll offer this simple hint to help you prepare for what's next – more volatility, more big trends, and more deleveraging throughout the global markets. In Part II of this research article, I'll share my thoughts on what I expect from the US Fed and what I hope for in 2022 and beyond. Want to learn more about how I trade and invest in the markets? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. If you need technically proven trading and investing strategies using ETFs to profit during market rallies and to avoid/profit from market declines, be sure to join me at TEP - Total ETF Portfolio. Have a great day! Chris VermeulenChief Market Strategist

The financial sector is poised for a very strong rally into the end of 2021, and early 2022 as revenues and earnings for Q4:2021 should continue to drive an upward price trend. The US Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates low. At the same time, the US consumer continues to drive home purchases and holiday shopping. Strong economic data should drive Q4 results for the financial sector close to levels we saw in Q3:2021. If that happens, we may see a robust rally in the US Financial sector over the next 45 to 60+ days. The strength of the recent rally in the US major indexes shows just how powerful the bullish trend bias is right now. Some traders focus on the downside risks associated with the US Federal Reserve actions and/or the concerns related to inflation and global markets. I, however, continue to focus on the strength in the US major indexes and various sector trends that show real opportunities for profits. Comparing Sector Strength The following two US market sector charts highlight the performance over the last 12 vs. 24 months. I want readers to pay attention to how flat the Financial Sector has stayed since just before the 2020 COVID event and how the Financial Sector has started to trend higher over the past 12 months. This is because the shock of COVID briefly disrupted consumer activity. Yet, consumers are coming back strong, driving retail sales, home sales, and the continued strong US economic data. Therefore, it makes sense that the Financial sector should continue to show firm revenue and earnings growth while the US consumer is active and spending. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Over the past two years, Discretionary, Technology, and Materials drove market growth compared to other sectors. Remember, the initial COVID virus event disrupted market sector trends over the last 24+ months. (Source: StockChart.com) Taking a look at this 1 Year US Market Sector chart shows how various sectors have rebounded and how the Discretionary and Materials sectors have flattened/weakened. Pay attention to how the Energy and Real Estate sectors have been over the past 12 months. Also, pay attention to how the Financial sector is strengthening. I believe that the continued deflation/deleveraging that is taking place throughout most of the world will continue to drive global central banks to stay relatively neutral regarding rising interest rates. This will likely prompt an easy money policy throughout most of 2022 and drive continued revenues/earnings for sectors associated with consumers' engagement with the economy. If inflation weakens into 2022 while wage and jobs data stays strong, we may see more moderate strength in the Financial, Healthcare, Discretionary, and Technology sectors over the next 6 to 12+ months. Read more about Global Deleveraging Here: Delivering Covid Bubble Possible Volatility Risks In Foreign Markets (Source: StockChart.com) Financials May Pop 11% Or More Over The Next 6+ Months This Weekly IYG, IShares US Financial Service ETF, highlights the recent sideways price trend in the Financial sector and the potential for a 9% to 13% rally that may take place as the markets shift into focus for the Q4:2021 earnings. Yes, inflation is still a concern, but as long as the US consumer continues spending and engaging in the economy, the Financial Services and US Banks should show strong returns. If the US markets rally into the end of 2021, possibly reaching new all-time highs again, this trend may carry well into 2022 and drive Q4:2021 and Q1:2022 revenues and earnings for the Financial sector even higher. This Weekly XLF chart shows a very similar setup to IYG. I firmly believe the recent fear in the markets related to the US Federal Reserve, the new COVID variants, and the global markets deleveraging process is missing one critical component – the strength of the US markets and the strength of the US Dollar. As the rest of the world struggles to find support and economic strength, the US markets continue to rebound on the strength of the US consumer, the recovering economy, and the growth of these sectors. As long as the US Federal Reserve does not disrupt this trend, I believe Q1:2022 could be much more robust than many people consider. I also think the deflation/deleveraging process will work to take the pressures away from recent inflation trends. What could this mean for 2022? Early 2022 may well work as a "rebalancing" process for the global markets – possibly taking the pressures away from the strength in energy, commodities, and staple products/materials. This means pricing pressures will decrease while consumers are still earning and spending. The Financial sector should benefit from these trends over the next 6+ months. Watch for the Financials to start to increase throughout the end of 2021 and into early 2022. There are many ways to consider trading this move, but ideally, I think the rally will take place before the end of February 2022. Q1 is usually relatively strong, so that this trend may last well into April/May 2022. It all depends on what happens that could disrupt the current market sector trends. If nothing happens to disrupt the strength of the US Dollar and the strength of the US markets, then I believe the Financial Sector has a very strong opportunity for at least 10% to 11% growth. Want to learn more about the potential for a financial sector rally? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. If you need technically proven trading and investing strategies using ETFs to profit during market rallies and to avoid/profit from market declines, be sure to join me at TEP - Total ETF Portfolio. Have a great day! Chris VermeulenChief Market Strategist

  Stocks slightly extended their rally yesterday and the S&P 500 reached new all-time high above the 4,800 level. But will the uptrend continue? The broad stock market index lost 0.10% on Tuesday, Dec. 28, as it fluctuated following the recent record-breaking rally. The broad stock market is now way above its local highs from November and December. Stocks broke above the consolidation and we had a Santa Claus rally. The new record high is at 4,807.02. Now we may see a consolidation or a downward correction. The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.1% lower this morning. On Dec. 3 the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the previous record high. So it was a pretty mild downward correction or just a consolidation following this year’s advances. The nearest important resistance level remains at around 4,800. On the other hand, the support level is now at 4,740-4,750, marked by the previous highs. The S&P 500 broke above its two-month long consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Below the November High Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index is relatively weaker than the broad stock market’s gauge as it is still trading below the Nov. 22 record high of 16,764.85. The recent rally in stocks was driven by a handful of stocks and the technology stocks were just retracing their recent declines. However, the Nasdaq 100 broke above the resistance level of 16,400. Apple’s Market Cap Gets Close to $3 Trillion Again Apple stock got back close to its Dec. 13 record high of $182.13. The nearest important resistance level is at $180-182. The stock remains above its two-month long upward trend line. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far, however, the market may be trading within a medium-term topping pattern. It’s getting very hard to fundamentally justify the Apple’s current market capitalization of around $3 trillion. Conclusion The S&P 500 index will most likely fluctuate following the recent record-breaking rally. We may see some profit trading action and a consolidation along the 4,800 level. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, there are some short-term overbought conditions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 will likely fluctuate following the recent rally. We may see a consolidation or a downward correction at some point. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

GBPUSD consolidates gains Growing risk appetite weighs on a safer US dollar. The rally above 1.3360 confirms that short-term sentiment has turned around. However, the push might have run out of steam as the RSI shows a bearish divergence. The deceleration indicates limited buying interest after the price went parabolic. 1.3400 is an immediate support. Its breach could trigger a correction and force the latest buyers out. Then 1.3300 would be the next support. 1.3500 is a major resistance from the daily chart. GER 40 breaks above daily resistance The Dax 40 climbed higher as investors favor value stocks in telecoms, transportation, and utilities. A break above December’s high at 15840 is a strong signal that the bulls may have had the last word. Trend followers would jump in, in anticipation of continuing above the psychological level of 16000. The RSI’s overbought situation could prompt intraday buyers to take profit. The previous resistance 15700 (now turned support) is the first level to evaluate buying interest. 15500 is the second support in case of a deeper pullback. USOIL seeks support WTI crude rallied after the EIA report showed a larger-than-expected fall in US inventories. The bulls are looking to hold onto their recent gains after they cleared the 30-day moving average and daily resistance at 73.20. 79.00 from November’s sharp sell-off is a major hurdle ahead. A bullish breakout could put the rally back on track. The RSI’s overextension may cause a brief pullback. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is an area of interest as it coincides with the previous low at 72.60.

S&P 500 feels like hanging by the fingernails – tech down and value retreating intraday. Correction of prior steep upswing is here – the bears will try some more, but I‘m not looking for them to get too far. The signs are there to knock the bulls somewhat down, and fresh ATHs look to really have to wait till next week. Checking up on the VIX, financials and consumer discretionaries confirms the odds of the bears stepping in today, and perhaps also tomorrow (depending upon today‘s close). The repelled HYG downswing likewise doesn‘t represent a significant risk-off turn (yet) – instead, we appear to be on the doorstep of another rotation, and its depth would be determined by how well tech is able to hold near current levels. Looking at precious metals, commodities and cryptos, the sellers of this risk-on rally have good odds of closing in the black for today. Earliest signs of stabilization would come from bonds, tech and cryptos – that‘s where I‘m mostly looking today. Keeping in mind the big picture – all eyes on upcoming Fed balance sheet data: (…) The Fed didn‘t really taper much in Dec, thus the jubilant close to 2021 across the board. The compressed yield curve would eventually invert – regardless of the current levels of inflation, the GDP growth can still support higher stock prices. Precious metals and commodities would though become an increasingly appealing proposition as I‘m not looking for the Fed to be able to break inflation. The tightening risks are clearly seen in market bets via compressed yields, so they‘ll attempt to not only talk a good game – they will act, and the risks of breaking something (real economy) would grow. That‘s the message from Treasuries – hawkish monetary policy mistake is feared and increasingly expected. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 saw a shot across the bow, and it remains to be seen whether the bears take advantage of a promising position to strike later today. Odds are they would at least try. Credit Markets HYG‘s hammer-style candle on rising volume doesn‘t bode well for today. Stabilization in junk bonds would be a most welcome sign once it arrives. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver aren‘t at all well positioned in the short-term – higher yields perhaps accompanied by consolidating inflation expectations, provide the bears with an opportunity. Crude Oil Crude oil is likewise stalling, but not too vulnerable unless fresh omicron fears return to the headlines. The $78 zone indeed looks to take a few days to be reached – I‘m still not looking at this week really. Copper Copper is taking a cautious stance – cautious, not panicky. Building a base not too far from yesterday‘s lows, would be most constructive now. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are feeling the pinch, and the Ethereum underperformance has foretold stiffer headwinds than had been the case recently. Genuine downtrend hasn‘t yet developed – the bulls are being tested as we speak. Summary Santa Claus rally is getting the announced reprieve – the day of decision how far it reaches, is today. Unless bonds (I‘m looking at the junk spectrum mainly), tech and cryptos weaken inordinately much, today‘s move would come in the sideways consolidation category. Odds for that are slightly better than a coin toss, but regardless, I‘m looking for a positive first day of 2022 trading to help make up for end of this week‘s headwinds. It‘s also positive that oil remains well bid above $75.50, and copper above $4.40. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  2021 was bad for gold. Unfortunately, 2022 doesn’t look any better, especially at the beginning. The end, however, gives the yellow metal some hope… Bye, bye 2021! It definitely wasn’t a year of gold. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal lost 5% of its value over the last twelve months, declining from $1,887.60 on December 30, 2020, to $1,794.25 on December 29, 2021. Thus, the gold bulls won’t miss 2021, I guess. What about me? Well, I correctly predicted in January that “gold’s performance in 2021 could be worse than last year”. However, I expected more bullish behavior. I thought that rising inflation would be more supportive of gold prices. I’m fully aware that gold is not a perfect inflation hedge, but historical analysis suggests that high and accelerating inflation should be positive for gold prices. After all, inflation lowers the real interest rates, the key fundamental factor in the gold market. However, rising inflation has prompted the Fed to tighten its monetary policy and speed up the tapering of its quantitative easing. Expectations of hikes in the federal funds rate in 2022 also strengthened. In consequence, as the chart below shows, bond yields rose, especially those short- and medium-term, creating downward pressure on gold prices. Thus, we’ve learned two important lessons in 2021: don’t just count on inflation, and don’t fight with the (hawkish) Fed. As you can see, bond yields haven’t returned to their pre-pandemic level yet. Although they don’t have to fully recover, they do have room for further increases. The issue here is that when inflation peaks and disinflation starts, inflation expectations could decline, boosting the real interest rates. Actually, market-based inflation expectations already peaked in November, as shown in the chart below. This indicates that worries about inflation had calmed and investors had regained some confidence in the US central bank’s ability to contain upward price pressure.   Implications for Gold Will 2022 be better for gold than 2021? It’s possible, but I’m not an optimist. I mean here: macroeconomic conditions will turn more bearish for gold. Despite the spreading of Omicron variant of coronavirus, 2022 could mark the end of the global Covid-19 epidemic with a full economic recovery and a return to normal conditions. Fiscal policy will tighten, while the Fed will adopt a more hawkish monetary policy than in 2021. Supply shocks are easing, so inflation may peak, while real interest rates go up further. Moreover, the US dollar may strengthen against the euro, as the ECB is slower with its monetary policy tightening. On the other hand, there are also some factors that could support gold prices. In 2021, GDP rebounded greatly after the economic crisis of 2020, and financial markets also recovered robustly. 2022 may be more challenging for economic growth and the financial sector, though. One thing is the base effect, while another is central banks’ policy normalization and rising interest rates. With massive public and private debts, the Fed’s tightening cycle could deflate asset and credit bubbles and even trigger a recession, or at least a market correction. However, there are no signs of market stress yet, so a financial crisis is not in my baseline scenario for the next year. 2023 (or even later) is a more probable timeframe. Hence, I believe that the end of 2022 may be better for gold than the beginning of the year, as mere expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle could be replaced by worries about the consequences of interest rate hikes. Anyway, 2021 is (almost) dead. Long live 2022! I wish you a return to normalcy, shining profits and all the golden next year! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  Omicron did a bit of a mess at the end of 2021, with oil too. Will crude oil break new price records in the New Year 2022? What do you guys reckon? Market Updates Yesterday, crude oil prices ended modestly higher after a volatile session with amplitudes increased by closing trades, as US crude inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels – more than expected – which is a positive sign for demand. Commercial crude oil reserves in the United States fell more than expected last week, recording the third consecutive significant decline on the back of strong demand, according to figures released yesterday by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA). On the other hand, the overall volatility is mainly due to the possible impact of the Omicron variant on demand; projects, commutations, as well as trips are cancelled, and more severe restrictions are put in place in Europe and China. (Source: Investing.com) The oil market continues to be tight due to the increased demand for heating oil to replace natural gas, which has become very expensive, especially in Europe; the Dutch TTF (Title Transfer Facility) benchmark dropped almost 8% to €89 there. As you may know, one third of European gas supplies come from Russia. This explains why the energy market is also keeping an eye on the Russo-Western crisis around Ukraine. Russian gas exports could be affected if tensions rise, as Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to speak on the phone with his American counterpart Joe Biden later today. I bet they won’t talk about Russian caviar (which might also be considered Russia’s original black gold). RBOB Gasoline (RBF22) Futures (Continuous contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGF22) Futures (January contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) WTI Crude Oil (CLG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

A very late Santa Rally appears to have been set up in the US markets as we close in on the end of 2021. The US markets have already started a melt-up trend – which is what I expected to happen prior to the bout of volatility over the past 30+ days. A Very Late Santa Rally Could Prompt A Powerful Move Upward A very late positive shift in the US major indexes may prompt a powerful upward price trend in early 2022. I expect that Q4:2021 earnings and revenues will continue to impress traders while the US Dollar strengthens above 95. This combination of a strong US economy with a stronger US Dollar will continue to attract foreign capital investment in US equities in early 2022. Traders won't want to miss the potential for a Q1 and Q2 rally phase in the US markets IF the US Fed stays moderately inactive throughout the first half of 2022. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Traders were concerned that the US Fed and Inflation would prompt a sudden shift by the US Fed. Still, I believe the new Omicron COVID virus and the shift away from hyper-inflationary trends may alter how the Fed sees the global economy in 2022. The US markets may be strengthening simply because of the additional stimulus and strong US consumer activity from the recovery/reflation trade momentum (late 2020 and almost all o 2021). The early 2022 trends may carry momentum into the first two Quarters of 2022 with slowly diminishing strength overall. Please take a minute to review our ADL Price Predictions for 2022 in this research article: The Technical Traders S&P 500 Rallying To New All-Time Highs To Close Out 2021 The S&P 500 recently rallied to new all-time highs just days before the end of 2021. This move suggests traders are shifting away from broader market concerns and starting to pay attention to the pending Q4:2021 earnings and revenue data and the 2021 Annual Data that will hit over the next 30 to 60+ days. Even though the markets are looking for any reason to spike the VIX (volatility), I believe the momentum behind this rally phase is going to continue to drive the S&P 500 up towards 5000 – or higher. My expectations are that we will see a fairly strong 5% to 8% rally in early 2022 from the 2021 end-of-year price levels. I believe the US market is attracting lots of foreign market capital as long as the US Fed does not do anything to topple the current market dynamics. NASDAQ Is Struggling To Reach New All-Time Highs, But Could Explode Higher In Early 2022 Even though the NASDAQ appears to be more volatile than the S&P500 and Dow Jones, it stands a very good chance of exploding higher in early 2022 as Q4:2021 earnings are announced, and end-of-year revenues and US economic data are presented in January/February. I expect that technology will continue to dominate trends related to how US consumers spend their time/money in 2022 – especially if we continue to go through more COVID virus waves. The sectors I'm watching in 2022 are Housing, Technology, Healthcare, Consumer Staples/Discretionary, Metals/Mining, and Retail. If there are any signs of concern in the US/Global markets, I expect to see these concerns appear in the strongest sectors right now (Consumer, Retail, Metals, Housing, and Technology). The US Fed will probably not take any severe actions in Q1:2022 and maybe talk about raising rates in Q2:2022. This means the US markets will continue to attract foreign capital, and traders need to prepare for a potentially explosive upside price trend in the NASDAQ before March 2022.

S&P 500 bulls stood their ground nicely, and the key sectors confirmed little willingness to turn the very short-term outlook more bearish than fits the little flag we‘re trading in currently – it‘s a bullish flag. Given the continued risk-off turn in bonds, the stock market setback could have been more than a tad deeper – that would be the conclusion at first glance. However, high yield corporate bonds held up much better than quality debt instruments, and that means the superficial look would have been misleading. Likewise as regards my other 2 signs out of the 3 yesterday presented ones – tech held up fine, and cryptos have practically erased yesterday‘s hesitation during today‘s premarket. The Santa Claus rally indeed hasn‘t yet run its course, and the slighly better than a coin toss odds of us not facing more than a very shallow correction, look to be materializing. As I wrote 2 days ago – What‘s Not to Love Here – we‘re entering 2022 with great open profits in both S&P 500 (entered aggressively at 4,672) and crude oil (entered with full force at $67.60). Both rides aren‘t yet over, copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury. As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021. We had a good year of strong gains, and I hope you have benefited. Thank you for all your appreciation and best wishes sent my way throughout all of 2021 and now by email or via Twitter – I would love to wish you a very Happy New Year – may 2022 keep bringing you happiness, success and good health. Enjoy the New Year‘s Eve celebrations, and see you again on Jan 03, 2022! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 consolidation is still shaping up finely – and does so on solid internals. Particularly the tech resilience is a good omen. Credit Markets HYG could have indeed declined some more, but didn‘t. While I‘m not reading all too much into this signal individually, it fits the (still bullish) mozaic completed by other markets on my watch. That‘s the strength of intermarket analysis. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver got on the defensive, but the bears didn‘t get too far – and the chance they could have, wasn‘t too bad. Rising yields were though countered by the declining dollar. Crude Oil Crude oil is likely to pause today, and will rally again once risk-on returns broadly, including into credit markets. For now, backing and filling above $76 is my leading very short-term scenario – Monday though will be a fresh day. Copper Copper is pausing, but the downswing didn‘t reach far, and was bought relatively fast. More consolidation above $4.40 looks likely, and it would come with a generally bullish bias that‘s apt to surprise on the upside. Similarly to precious metals though, patience. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are staging a daily comeback, and as long as mid-Dec lows don‘t come in sight again, crypto prices can muddle through with a gently bullish bias. Summary Santa Claus isn‘t willing to give much ground, and the table is set for this nice rally to modestly continue today – somewhere more pronouncedly (S&P 500, cryptos) than elsewhere (commodities and precious metals). I‘m still looking for a positive first day of 2022 trading to help make up for end of this week‘s headwinds – it has been great that the bears couldn‘t find more strength yesterday. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCHF tests daily support The US dollar softens over increased risk appetite. A drop below the lower band of the consolidation range at 0.9160 confirms a lack of interest in the greenback. The pair is testing the major demand zone around 0.9100 from the daily chart. A bearish breakout could jeopardize the pair’s rebound over the past quarter. It could also trigger a sell-off towards the psychological level of 0.9000. The bulls may be tempted to buy the dip. 0.9180 would be the first resistance to lift before they could turn the downbeat inertia around. AUDUSD consolidates gains The Australian dollar finds support from rising commodity prices. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart indicates improvement in underlying sentiment. The former supply zone between 0.7210 and 0.7220 has turned into a demand zone. Buyers may be eager to join the rally after the RSI returned to the neutrality area. 0.7290 is a fresh resistance, and a combination of profit-taking and fresh selling could temporarily weigh on the Aussie. 0.7120 is a second line of defense in case of a deeper retracement. EURGBP falls below daily support The pound outperforms the euro over diverging monetary policies. The break below the daily support at 0.8380 is an invalidation of the rebound in late November. The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation has attracted some buying interest, but not enough to sustain a meaningful bounce. 0.8420 is now a fresh resistance. And only its breach could prompt sellers to cover. On the downside, 0.8365 is a fragile support. A breakout would further deteriorate sentiment and send the euro to February 2020’s lows near 0.8280.

  Although your calendar may say otherwise, gold is in the 1960s. The question is whether we will move into the 1970s or speed-run to the mid-2010s. Did you go overboard with your time travel and lose track of time? Probably not, but just in case, I assure you that the current year is 2021. To be 100% sure, I fact-checked it on a dedicated webpage for time-travelers. However, the authority of science is being questioned, and there are people who say that, from a macroeconomic point of view, we are approaching the 1970s, or at least the 1960s. There are also voices saying that the gold market is replaying 2012-2013. Although appearances point to 2021, let’s investigate what year we really live in. The similarities with the 1970s are obvious. Just like then, we have high inflation, large fiscal deficits (see the chart below), and easy, erroneous monetary policy. Fifty years ago, the Fed blamed inflation on exogenous shocks and considered inflation to be transitory too. The new monetary regime adopted by the US central bank in 2020 also takes us back to the 70s and the mistaken belief that the economy cannot overheat, so the Fed can let inflation run above the target for a while in order to boost employment. The parallels extend beyond price pressure. The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan reminded many of the fall of Saigon. The world is facing an energy crisis right now, another feature of the 1970s. If we really repeat those years, gold bulls should be happy, as the yellow metal rallied from $35 to $850, surging more than 2300% back in that decade (see the chart below). However, there is one problem with this narrative. In the 1970s, we experienced stagflation, i.e., a simultaneous occurrence of high inflation and economic stagnation with a rising unemployment rate. Currently, although we face strong upward price pressure, we enjoy economic expansion and declining unemployment, as the chart below shows. Indeed, the monthly unemployment rate decreased from 14.8% in April 2020 to 4.2% in November 2021. The current macroeconomic situation, characterized by inflation without stagnation part, is reminiscent of the 1960s, a decade marked by rising inflation and rapid GDP growth. As the chart below shows, the CPI annual rate reached a local maximum of 6.4% in February 1970, similar to the current inflation level. Apparently, we are replaying the 1960s right now rather than the 1970s. So far, growth is slowing down, but we are far from stagnation territory. There is no discussion on this. My point was always that the Fed’s actions could bring us to the 1970s, or that complacency about inflation is increasing the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and the materialization of a stagflationary scenario. In the 1960s, the price of gold was still fixed, so historical analysis is impossible. However, it seems that gold won’t start to rally until we see some signs of stagnation or an economic crisis, and markets begin to worry about recession. Given that the current economic expansion looks intact, the yellow metal is likely to struggle at least by mid-2022 (unless supply disruptions and energy crisis intensify significantly, wreaking havoc). Do we have to go back that far in time, though? Maybe the 2020 peak in gold prices was like the 2011 peak and we are now somewhere in 2012-2013, on the eve of a great downward move in the gold market? Some similarities cannot be denied: the economy is recovering from a recession, while the Fed is tightening its monetary policy, and gold shows weakness with its inability to surpass $1,800. So, some concerns are warranted. I pointed out a long time ago the threat of an upward move in the real interest rates (as they are at record low levels), which could sink the precious metals market. However, there are two key differences compared to the 2012-2013 period. First, inflation is much higher and it’s still accelerating, while ten years ago there was disinflation. This distinction should support gold prices. The peak in the inflation rate could be a dangerous time for gold, as the disinflationary era would raise interest rates, putting downward pressure on the yellow metal. Second, the prospects of the Fed’s tightening cycle are probably already priced in. In other words, the next “taper tantrum” is not likely to happen. It implies that a sudden spike in the interest rates similar to that of 2013 (see the chart below) shouldn’t repeat now. Hence, the answer to the question “what year is it?” should be that we are somewhere in the 1960s and we can move later into the 1970s if high inflation stays with us and stagnation sets in or if the next crisis hits. However, we can leap right into the 2010s if inflation peaks soon and the hawkish Fed triggers a jump in bond yields. It’s also possible that we will see a temporary disinflation before the second wave of elevated inflation. So, gold could continue its struggle for a while before we see another rally. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

Last week I shared with you some of my Best Charts of 2021 (as well as my Worst Charts of 2021 and then also my favorites!) -- so this week I wanted to follow up with what I would say are the "honorable mention" charts of 2021...       These charts were worthy of mention but didn’t quite fit into any of the previous categories -- but were definitely worth including and highlighting both due to how they proved useful in the past year or so, but also in terms of the outlook into 2022.       These charts were featured in my just-released 2021 End of Year Special Report -- check it out (free download as a holiday treat!).       Enjoy, feel free to share, and be sure to let me know what you think in the comments...           1. Expect Higher Taxes: This chart arguably points to higher tax rates ahead given that government debt as a % of GDP has doubled over the past decade while effectively economy-wide tax-take has gone sideways.       chart of developed economy fiscal outlook - higher taxes forecast           2. Global Food Crisis? Stagnant capex by food producers contributed to a perfect storm for food prices (along with actual storms, pandemic disruption, rising costs).                 3. UK Equities: In the wake of Brexit & pandemic woes, UK equities moved to decade-low valuations vs their European peers. From crisis to opportunity?                     >>> These charts were featured in our 2021 End of Year Special Report.               4. Global Shipping Capex: Shipping sector investment stagnated for a decade – contributing to the global supply chain chaos. Ironically it likely rebounds after banking windfall profits from the surge in freight rates.                 5. Global vs US Earnings Cycles: A key driver of the long-term cycles of relative price performance of global vs US equities has been the cycles in relative earnings. That cycle will need to change for the price cycle to change.                 6. Pandemic Progress: the global rollout of vaccines, rising immunity, societal adaptations, and therapeutics have helped result in a series of lower highs in deaths – I like the look of that trend. The light at the end of the tunnel, though flickering at times, does seem a little brighter now…                     Thanks for reading!           This is an excerpt from my 2021 End of Year Special report - click through to download a free copy of the report.       Best regards       Callum Thomas   Head of Research and Founder of Topdown Charts           Follow us on:   Substack https://topdowncharts.substack.com/   LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/topdown-charts   Twitter http://www.twitter.com/topdowncharts

Bitcoin price bounces off the $45,678 support level, suggesting a higher high is likely. Ethereum price looks primed for a sweep of the $4,133 resistance level to collect the liquidity resting above it. Ripple price might head lower to retest the 3-day demand zone, ranging from $0.704 to $0.778 before it triggers a run-up. Bitcoin price has been stuck, ranging between two crucial levels since the December 3 flash crash. This consolidation is setting up the base for a long-term volatile move, but for now, BTC is likely to retest the range high of this sideways move. Ethereum and Ripple will promptly follow the big crypto and see short-term gains. Bitcoin price eyes higher high Bitcoin price bounced off the $45,678 support floor for the fourth time and is currently hovering at $46,921, just below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A surge in bullish momentum that overcomes this hurdle is likely to propel the pioneer crypto to tag the $51,993 resistance barrier, coinciding with the 50-day SMA. A sweep of this level will collect the buy-stop liquidity resting above it. This 13% upswing is likely to face profit-taking at this level, leading to a reversal. However, in some cases, the buyers could flip this level to a support floor, suggesting that Bitcoin price might head higher and retest the $57,030. BTC/USD 4-hour chart While things are looking up for Bitcoin price, a breakdown of the $45,678 support floor will reveal a weakness among buyers. This move will crash BTC by 9% to retest the December 3, 2021 swing low at $41,672. Here, Bitcoin price has another chance to make a comeback and will likely restart the upswing. Ethereum price to revisit crucial barriers Ethereum price revisited the $3,640 support floor for the third time on December 31, 2021, triggering a 5% ascent to where it currently trades - $3,800. Unlike the big crypto, ETH is comfortably trading above the 200-day SMA. A potential spike in buying pressure is likely to propel Ethereum price to retest the $4,113 resistance barrier, coinciding with the 50-day SMA. This run-up would constitute an 8.4% ascent and is likely to see the short-term upswing capped. If the buyers continue to pile on the bid orders, ETH might slice through the said hurdles and make a run for the $4,435 ceiling, representing a 16% gain. ETH/USD 6-hour chart In some cases, Ethereum price might revisit the $3,640 barrier before heading to the immediate resistance barrier. A breakdown of this level, however, will lead to a retest of the December 3, 2021 swing low at $3,456, where buyers have another chance to restart the uptrend. Ethereum primed for 50% breakout to $6,300 Ripple price could head lower Ripple price is hovering above the 3-day demand zone, ranging from $0.704 to $0.778 and is likely to retest it before it decides to head higher. A dip into this area will replenish the bullish momentum, allowing the XRP price to climb higher. The $0.892 resistance barrier will be the first hurdle the remittance token will tag, beyond which it is likely to collect the liquidity resting above the $0.939 ceiling. In some cases, Ripple price could extend its run-up to $1, where it will face immense selling pressure. XRP/USD 4-hour chart Regardless of the recent run-up, if Ripple price slices through the 3-day demand zone, extending from $0.704 to $0.778, and produces a decisive close below it, the bullish thesis will face invalidation. In which case, the XRP price could slide lower to revisit the $0.656 support floor. XRP price to present long opportunity for Ripple bulls at $0.87

S&P 500 pared prior steep gains, but thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out. As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. As stated on Thursday, the open profits would still keep rising. Precious metals were the key winners Friday, paying attention to the dollar and nominal yields retreat the most. The red metal‘s upswing certainly helped – such were my latest words: (…) copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury. As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021. Finally, cryptos look to be in agreement with not reading too much to Friday‘s downswings – both Bitcoin and Ethereum are turning up as $46K in BTC held up once again. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Nasdaq got a little oversold relative to S&P 500 – this is not the start of a fresh downtrend. Once financials and consumer discretionaries turn up, the rally will be on better footing again. Credit Markets HYG could have declined some more, but tellingly didn‘t. Bonds aren‘t ready to turn to risk-off just yet. Upswing attempt next shouldn‘t be surprising in the least. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are looking at a much better year than was 2021. Stock market volatility, GDP growth challenges and persistent inflation would help the metals and commodities rise. Crude Oil Crude oil is about to move up again as gains were taken off the table on Friday. With the omicron response and related pronouncements coming in lately from the U.S., what else to expect – a great deal of destroyed demand doesn‘t look to be ahead. Copper Copper undid the prior pause, and looks ready to keep defending the $4.43 area. The long consolidation that started in May, would be eventually broken to the upside. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum may be short-term undecided, but don‘t look willing to decline. Cryptos are still bullish above mid-Dec lows. Summary First trading day of 2022 is likely to extend prior gains, resolving the prior sideways move. As risk-on faltered on Friday, S&P 500 and cryptos are likely to catch up, and oil would probably outperform copper today while precious metals digest very solid New Year‘s Eve gains. We‘re nowhere near the good days ending just yet – turbulence would come once Fed tapering gets really noticeable (post Olympics), with VIX trending higher well before that already. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

NZDUSD breaks support The New Zealand dollar tumbles against its US counterpart amid soaring Treasury yields. The pair is looking to consolidate its recent gains after it rallied above the 30-day moving average (0.6820). The December high at 0.6860 is a major resistance. A bullish close may propel the kiwi to 0.6950. In the meantime, the pullback below 0.6800 suggests a lack of further commitment from the buy-side as short-term traders took profit. 0.6740 is the next support and its breach may lead to a correction to 0.6700. XAGUSD seeks support Silver falls back as the US dollar strengthens across the board. Price action saw a strong recovery from the daily support at 21.50. A rally above 23.15 indicates interest in keeping the rebound valid, following a brief end of the year sell-off. The double top at 23.40 is an important resistance on the way to 23.70. This point lies in a supply zone from the late November sell-off. A break below the psychological level of 23.00 has prompted intraday buyers to bail out. 22.60 is the closest support and its breach could drive the metal to 21.80. GER 40 rises towards an all-time high The Dax 40 rallies in hopes that Omicron lockdowns can be avoided. A bullish MA cross on the daily charts indicates improved sentiment. The rally accelerated after it cleared the supply area around 15750. The bulls are pushing towards the all-time high at 16300. A breakout could resume the uptrend, attracting trend followers in the process. The RSI surged again into the overbought territory and may temper the bullish fever. 15840 is fresh support. 15680 from the previous resistance area would be a test for buyers’ resolve.

The start of 2021 wasn’t successful for gold: after a few days of rally, the yellow metal entered a bearish trend. 2022 looks uncomfortably similar. So far, so good – the first three days of 2022 didn’t bring a new catastrophe. It’s probably just the calm before the storm, but the new year started well. Even the price of gold has risen! As the chart below shows, the yellow metal managed to jump above the key level of $1,800 at the very end of 2021, but it still maintains its position (at least as of early January 3, 2022). It reminds me of the beginning of 2021. Gold also started last year with a bang, only to plunge later. Its price increased 3.5% during the first week of the year, reaching $1,957, and then began its big downward move. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal plunged below $1,700 at the very end of March. Hence, although January is historically a good month for gold, it might be too early to celebrate, and investors should exercise caution. However, luckily for gold bulls, there is one significant difference between 2021 and 2022. Last year, there were Georgia runoffs and Democrats took over both the White House and the full Congress (the House and the Senate). That was when the blue wave plunged the yellow metal. This year should be politically calmer for the US (so, we don’t count the odds of Russia invading Ukraine and China attacking Taiwan), but the major threat to the gold market remains the same: a rise in the real interest rates. In January 2021, it was the blue wave that triggered a rebound in rates, but it may be induced by many more factors in the future. It could be the development of a new cure against coronavirus and the end of the pandemic, a more hawkish Fed, or a decline in inflation. The spread of the Omicron variant keeps worries alive. After all, as the chart below shows, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases in the United States has hit a record high of about 405,000. When we are completely back to normalcy, risk appetite and bond yields may increase. Another risk for gold is the stabilization of inflation and even subsequent disinflation. As the chart below shows, we got a one-off boost in the money supply, so inflation is likely to peak this year. Inflation expectations should ease then, and real interest rates may rebound in such a scenario. What gives me some comfort here is that the pace of money supply growth hasn’t returned to the pre-pandemic level yet, but it stays at an elevated level (although much below the peak). It should support high inflation this year. Moreover, the Fed is likely to remain behind the curve and the peak in inflation may only strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC (although investors should remember that the composition of the voting members of the Committee has become more hawkish in 2022).   Implications for Gold What does it all imply for the gold market? Will the yellow metal resume its long-term bullish trend in 2022? Well, this is what a majority of investors that took part in Kitco News’ annual outlook survey believe. Of nearly 3,000 retail investors, 54% said they see gold prices above $2,000 by the end of the year. This is also in line with Goldman Sachs’ call for gold in 2022. Other forecasters see gold prices trading in a range between $1,800 and $2,000. It’s certainly a possible scenario. After all, much of the Fed’s tightening cycle has already been priced in; and the last time gold bottomed was in December 2015, just around the first hike in the federal funds rate after the Great Recession. However, I expect more volatile trading with strong downside potential. As a reminder, my educated guess is that gold may plunge at some point amid a rebound in bond yields, but will rise later as worries about the next economic crisis accumulate. Indeed, it’s quite funny, but I haven’t even finished this article, and the price of gold has already started to slide amid rising US dollar index and Treasury yields, in line with my warnings from the beginning of this text. This is how I became a prophet. Now I can see that as soon as you finish reading this article you will continue surfing the internet! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  The S&P 500 retraced its late last week’s declines yesterday and it went closer to the 4,800 level again. Will it reach the new record high today? The broad stock market index gained 0.64% on Monday, Jan. 3, as it retraced most of the recent decline from last Thursday’s record high of 4,808.93. Yesterday the index fell to the local low of 4,758.17, before advancing almost 40 points. The S&P 500 index remains way above the local highs from November and December. Stocks broke above the consolidation and we had a quick Santa Claus rally. The broad stock market’s gauge continues to trade within a short-term consolidation. For now, it looks like a relatively flat correction within an uptrend. On Dec. 3 the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the previous record high. So it was a pretty mild downward correction or just a consolidation following last year’s advances. The nearest important resistance level remains at around 4,800-4,810. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,740-4,750, marked by the previous highs. Recently the S&P 500 broke above its two-month long consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Apple’s Market Cap Tops $3 Trillion Apple stock reached the new record high of $182.88 yesterday, as it broke slightly above the Dec. 13 high of $182.13. The stock remains above its two-month long upward trend line. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far, however, the market may be trading within a medium-term topping pattern. It’s getting very hard to fundamentally justify the Apple’s current market capitalization of around $3 trillion. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.3% higher this morning, but we may see some short-term uncertainty and a further consolidation along the 4,800 level. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 will likely extend its short-term consolidation along the 4,800 level. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Very good S&P 500 entry to 2022, and the HYG intraday reversal is the sight to rejoice. In the sea of rising yields, both tech and value managed to do well – the market breadth keeps improving as not only the ratio of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages shows. Likewise VIX refused to reach even 19, and instead is attacking 16.50. This is not complacency – the bulls were thoroughly shaken at the entry to the session yesterday – but a buying interest that convincingly turned the tide during the day. As I wrote yesterday: (…) thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out. As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. The only sector taking a beating yesterday, were precious metals. While inflation expectations were little changed (don‘t look for inflation to go away any time soon as I‘ve been making the case repeatedly), the daily rise in yields propelled the dollar to reverse Friday‘s decline, and that knocked both gold and silver off the high perch they closed at last week. Still, none of the fundamental or monetary with fiscal policy originating reasoning has been invalidated – not even the charts were damaged badly by Monday‘s weakness. As economic growth gets questioned while fiscal policy remains expansive unlike the monetary one, volatily in the stock market together with persistent inflation would be putting a nice floor beneath the metals. Even cryptos are refusing to yield much ground, the Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio keeps trading positively, and I‘m not even talking the rubber band that commodities (crude oil and copper) are. Very good for our open positions there, as much as in the S&P 500 – let them keep bringing profits. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Really bullish price action in both S&P 500 and Nasdaq – that was the entry to 2022 I was looking for. Embellished with prior downswing that lends more credibility to the intraday reversal. Credit Markets HYG refusing to decline more, is the most bullish sign for today imaginable – let it hold, for junk bonds now hold the key, especially if quality debt instruments keep declining steeply. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver look to have reversed, but reaching such a conclusion would be premature. The long basing pattern goes on, and breakout higher would follow once the Fed‘s attempting to take the punch bowl away inflicts damage on the real economy (and markets), which is what the yield curve compression depicts. Crude Oil Crude oil is about to launch higher – and it‘s not a matter of solid oil stocks performance only. Just look at the volume – it didn‘t disappoint, and in the risk-on revival that I expect for today, black gold would benefit. Copper Copper swooned, but regained composure – the stop run is over, and we‘re back to base building for the coming upswing. Broader commodities certainly agree. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are very gently leaning bullish, but I‘m not sounding the all clear there yet thanks to how long Bitcoin is dillydallying. Cryptos aren‘t yet out of the woods, but their posture has improved thus far noticeably. Summary First trading day of 2022 extended prior S&P 500 gains, and the risk-on appetite is improving as we speak. Commodities are reaping the rewards, and we‘re looking at another good day ahead, including in precious metals taking a bite at yesterday‘s inordinately large downswing. Nothing of the big factors ahead for Q1 2022 as described in today‘s analysis (I wholeheartedly recommend reading it in full for the greatest benefits – there is only so much / little that I can fit into a one paragraph summary), and that means we‘re looking at further stock market gains as the bull runs (including in commodities and precious metals, yes precious metals), aren‘t over in the least. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Gold, silver, and mining stocks started 2022 with a bang. However, this wasn’t the kind of fireworks investors were hoping for. While gold, silver, and mining stocks partied hard into year-end, the trio woke up to massive hangovers on Jan. 3. Although I’ve been warning for some time that mining stocks would stumble in 2021, the New Year is still filled with old problems. For example, the GDX ETF has been making lower lows and lower highs for months, and when its RSI (Relative Strength Index) approaches 70, the senior miners often run out of gas. For context, I highlighted the events with the blue vertical dashed lines below. Moreover, with the senior miners’ current price action following the ominous paths of 2000, 2008, and 2013, and their stochastic indicator still signaling overbought conditions, Monday’s weakness may be a sign of things to come. Please see below: Please also consider the implications of year-end tax-loss harvesting. With the general stock market rallying to start the New Year, losing positions that were sold to offset capital gains near the end of 2021 were likely repurchased on Jan. 3. However, gold, silver, and mining stocks didn’t benefit from the phenomenon. As a result, while the GDX ETF may have outperformed gold, the relative strength was immaterial within the overall picture. Turning to the HUI Index’s long-term chart, the same bearish forecast is present. For example, I marked the specific tops with red and black arrows. In the current situation, we saw yet another small move up, but that’s most likely because price moves are now less volatile. The areas marked with red ellipses remain similar and show back-and-forth movement before the big decline. As a result, we’ve entered a consolidation phase, and the implications are not bullish, but bearish. Making three of a kind, the GDXJ ETF’s corrective upswing has likely run its course. Interestingly, the junior miners’ current rally mirrors the small correction that materialized in mid-2021. Back then, the GDXJ ETF rallied on low volume and didn’t recapture its 50-day moving average. With the same tepid strength present today, the drawdown that followed in mid-2021 will likely commence once again. On top of that, the behavior of the GDXJ ETF’s RSI is also similar – with the indicator moving from roughly 30 to 50. For context, I highlighted the similarities with green and purple ellipses below. Also noteworthy, similar developments occurred in February/March 2020, before the profound plunge unfolded. As a result, the GDXJ ETF looks set for another sharp drawdown over the medium term and predicting higher prices might be misleading. Finally, while my short position in the GDXJ ETF proved quite prescient in 2021, the junior miners continue to underperform the senior miners. With the GDX/GDXJ ratio likely to confront new lows in the coming months, the GDXJ ETF should remain a material laggard in 2022. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks started off 2022 with a bang. However, it wasn’t the kind of fireworks that investors were hoping for. With each new celebration shorter in magnitude, it’s likely only a matter of time before their parties are canceled. As a result, the precious metals still confront the same bearish technical outlooks that plagued them in 2021. While mean reversion remains undefeated over the long term, the wait may prove longer than many expect. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Dogecoin price is setting up a triple bottom setup on a 4-hour time frame, suggesting a reversal is likely. Investors can expect DOGE to rally 13% and retest the $0.191 resistance level. A breakdown of the $0.20 support floor will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis. Dogecoin price has been stuck trading below a vital resistance level and hovering around a crucial support floor. While a breakdown of this foothold could result in a massive downswing, DOGE has not done it yet. As of this writing, the meme coin eyes a minor upswing. Dogecoin price looks to contest significant hurdles Dogecoin price has set up a triple bottom pattern after tagging the $0.168 support level thrice over the past week. This price action could result in a short-term increase in buying pressure, leading to a 13% ascent to $0.191. Due to consolidative price action between December 24 and December 27, 2021, there is now pent-up buy-stop liquidity resting above $0.191, and market makers are likely to push DOGE higher in the short term. Traders can open a long position from the current level at $0.169 and take profits at $0.191. Interestingly, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) coincides with $0.191 lending credence to the target for Dogecoin Price. DOGE/USDT 4-hour chart On the other hand, if the Dogecoin price fails to bounce off the $0.169 support floor due to increased selling pressure, DOGE will likely revisit the $0.159 demand barrier. A breakdown of this foothold will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis. In this case, Dogecoin price could crash 5% to tag the subsequent support level at $0.151.

Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - Part IMany traders struggled in 2021 with the extended price volatility and sideways price trends. Recently, news that Bridgewater's 2021 results were saved by December's +7.8% gain (Source: Yahoo! Finance) leads me to believe a number of independent funds and investors are going to have a tough end-of-year return for 2021.Average Hedge Fund Returns Less Than 25% Of The 2021 S&P500 GainsThe volatility in the US and global markets throughout most of 2021 took a toll on traditional trading strategies. With the VIX trading above 12 on average throughout almost all of 2021, traditional trading strategies may not have been able to adjust to this increased volatility in the US markets – getting chewed up along the way. I wrote an article series about how computerized trading strategies can fail when volatility levels increase beyond traditional boundaries a few weeks ago. You can read the first of the three part series, US Federal Reserve Actions 1999 to Present - What's Next?, and then link to the other two.(source: Aurum.com)Many of the best Hedge Funds could barely squeeze out a profit in 2021. While the S&P500 rallied more than 27% in 2021, you can see from the graphic above that the average returns for Hedge Funds in 2021 were a paltry +6.24%.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! I expect that the US and global markets will continue to stay in extended price volatility ranges throughout all of 2022 and into 2023 as broad global market transitioning continues to take place. This expectation leads me to conclude that the “Lazy-Bull” strategy may be better suited for traders/investors over the next 24+ months than more active trading strategies.What Is The “Lazy-Bull” Strategy?The Lazy-Bull strategy is a term I use for my proprietary strategies – The Technical Investor and the Technical Index & Bond Trader. I call it the Lazy-Bull strategy because it is straightforward and only generates about 3 to 10 trades per year (on average). Many traders dislike this type of strategy because it it does not require many trades and does not provide the rush/roller coaster ride that many think they should feel while trading, which is not how it should be. Having said that, overall, this strategy has consistently produced positive annual results (CGAR average ROI 15% - 51% depending on ETF leverage, and only 7 - 21% drawdown) – beating the SPY almost every year. If you traded with the 1x, 2x, or 3x ETFs then you would have crushed the S&P 500 every year, and experienced that positive rush feeling that leverage/volatility provides.My trading style is a bit different than most other traders. My objectives consist of three very important concepts:Protect Capital At All TimesTrade Only When Strategically Opportunistic (probabilities are favorable)Trade Efficiently Using Bonds As Trade When Fear Rises among traders and investors.Through the Technical Investor and Technical Index and Bond Trading strategies, I help individuals and advisors learn how trading more efficiently using the Lazy-Bull strategies is for generating large compounded returns as shown in the SP500 chart below.I'll go further into detail regarding my strategies as we continue this multi-part article.Reading Into Q1:2022 – What To Expect?Right now, the world is waiting on Q4:2021 earnings and economic data. The first Quarter of 2022 should be very exciting for US traders as the year-end momentum of 2021 may carry forward into Q1:2022 with solid revenues and earnings. After that, we move into Q2:2022, which may be much more volatile overall.Let's look at our proprietary data mining utility to see what we might expect from the markets in the first Quarter of 2022.January 2022 has more than a 1.41:1 probability ratio of staying positive based on the past 29 years of historical data. Ideally, the average positive and negative monthly ranges are about equal – nearly $5.00. The accumulated monthly data shows that January is usually overall positive by at least $2.50 to $5.00.February 2022 has a much higher chance of extreme volatility. February 2022 shows a much greater positive to negative ratio while the possibility of a bullish February drops to a 1.33:1 probability ratio. Overall, I would suspect larger price volatility in mid to late February 2022 as the markets attempt to transition into late Q1 expectations.March 2022 has the same 1.41:1 probability ratio as January, yet the overall likelihood of extended downside price trends is about 20% greater than January.My analysis of this data suggests January and March of 2022 may surprise traders with a potential for a significant upward price move headed into Q2:2022. I believe Q4:2021 will also surprise traders as US consumers continue to engage and spend. This will lead to higher expectations for Q1:2022, which may set up a bit of a rally ahead of April/May 2022.Q1 and Q2, historically, seem to be strong in terms of traditional market growth and expectations. Yes, there have been instances when unexpected volatility disrupts the more customary types of trends – and 2022 may be one of those years. Our research shows the US Fed may make early efforts to move away from extreme easy money policies – which may shock the markets.Our research suggests the possibility of a 7% to 10% rally in the SPY in the First Quarter of 2022. If our extended research is accurate, our predictive modeling suggests more extreme price volatility may also play a significant role in how price trends/moves in 2022. Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering?In Part II of this article, we'll review the entire year of 2022 Quarterly Data Mining results and present more evidence that 2022 and 2023 may be years where a shift in strategy plays an important role for traders/investors. With the VIX trading above 15 more consistently, many strategies will get chewed up and spit out as the markets roll 9% - 15% up and down while attempting to transition away from the post-COVID stimulus.Get ready; 2022 will be an excellent year for traders with significant trends and bigger volatility. We just have to stay ahead of these trends to protect our capital and allow it to grow more efficiently. The risks of more traditionally moderate volatility systems getting chewed up in this extreme environment will continue. So be prepared to move towards a more protective trading style to survive the next 12 to 24 months.Want To Learn More About The Technical Investor and The Technical Index & Bond Trading Strategies?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to take a few minutes to visit the Technical Traders website to learn about our Technical Investor and Technical Index and Bond Trading strategies and how they can help you protect and grow your wealth. Have a great day!

Another daily rise in yields forced S&P 500 down through tech weakness – the excessive selloff in growth didn‘t lead buyers to step in strongly. More base building in tech looks likely, but its top isn‘t in, and similarly to the late session HYG rebound, spells a day of stabization and rebalancing just ahead. I‘m not looking for an overly sharp move, even if the very good non-farm employment change of 807K vs. 405K expected could have facilitated one. Friday though is the day of the key figure release – till then a continued bullish positioning where every S&P 500 dip is being bought, would be most welcome. The same goes for high yield corporate bonds not standing in the way, and for credit markets to reverse yesterday‘s risk-off slant. Likewise the compressed yield curve could provide more relief by building on last few days‘ upswings in the 10- to 2-year Treasury ratio. VIX has been repelled above 17 again, and keeps looking ready to meander near its recent values‘ lower end. That‘s all constructive for stock market bulls, and coupled with the fresh surge in commodities (and precious metals), bodes well for the S&P 500 not to crater soon again. Another positive sign comes from the dollar, which wasn‘t really able to keep intraday gains in spite of the rising Treasury yields. Cryptos though remain cautious (unlike precious metals which moved nicely off Monday‘s oversold levels – on a daily basis oversold), so we‘re in for a muddle through with a generally and gently bullish bias this week… until non-farrm payrolls surprise on Friday (and markets would probably interpret it as a reason to rise). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 keeps respectably treading water, waiting for Nasdaq to kick in – odds are we won‘t have to wait for a modest upswing in both for too long. Credit Markets HYG is the key next – holding above yesterday‘s lows would give stocks enough breathing room, and so would however modest quality debt instruments upswing. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are leading miners, but the respectable daily volume makes up for this non-confirmation. The table is set for the floor below gold and silver to hold, while a very convincing miners move has to still wait. Crude Oil Everything is ready for the crude oil upswing – even if oil stocks pause next, which can be expected if tech stages a good rally. Until then, it‘s bullish for both $WTIC and $XOI. Copper Copper is keeping the upswing alive, and any pullbacks don‘t have good odds of taking the red metal below 4.39 lastingly. Still, copper remains range bound for now, and the pressure to go higher, is building up. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum lost the bullish slant, but didn‘t turn bearish yet – this hesitation is disconcerting, but it would be premature to jump the gun. It‘s still more likely that cryptos would defy the shrinking global liquidity, and try to stage a modest rally. Summary S&P 500 internals reveal tech getting hurt yesterday, and at the same time getting ready for a brief upswing of the dead cat bounce flavor. And if HYG kicks back in, odds increase dramatically that the tech (and by extension S&P 500) upswing won‘t be a dead cat bounce (please note that I‘m not implying vulnerability to a large downswing) – that‘s my leading scenario, which should materialize by Friday‘s market open. Yes, I‘m looking for non-farm payrolls to be well received once the dust settles. Till then, commodities are paving the way for further stock market gains, with precious metals turning out not too shabby either. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? Part III started this article by highlighting how difficult some 2021 strategies seemed for many Hedge Funds and Professional Traders. It appears the extreme market volatility throughout 2021 took a toll on many systems and strategies. I wouldn't be surprised to see various sector ETFs and Sector Mutual Funds up 15% to 20% or more for 2021 while various Hedge Funds struggle with annual returns between 7% and -5% for 2021.After many years in this industry and having built many of my own strategies over the past decade, I've learned one very important facet of trading strategy development – expect the unexpected. A friend always told me to "focus on failure" when we developed strategies together. His approach to strategy design was "you develop it do too well in certain types of market trends and volatility. By focusing on where it fails, you'll learn more about the potential draw-downs and risks of a strategy than ignoring these points of failure". I tend to agree with him.In the first part of this research article, the other concept I started discussing was how traders/investors might consider moving away from strategies that struggled in 2022. What if the markets continue trending with extreme volatility throughout 2022 and into 2023? Suppose your system or strategy has taken some losses in 2022, and you have not stopped to consider volatility or other system boundaries as a potential issue. In that case, you may be looking forward to a very difficult 12 to 14+ months of trading in 2022 and 2023.Volatility Explodes After 2017Current market volatility/ATR levels are 300% to 500% above those of 2014/2015. These are the highest volatility levels the US markets have ever experienced in the past 20+ years. The current ATR level is above 23.20 – more than 35% higher than the DOT COM Peak volatility of 17.15.As long as the Volatility/ATR levels stay near these elevated levels, traders and investors will likely find the markets very difficult to trade with strategies that cannot properly adapt to the increased risks and price rotations in trends. Simply put, these huge increases in price volatility may chew up profits by getting stopped out on pullbacks or by risking too much in terms of price range/volatility.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The increased volatility over the past 5+ years directly reflects global monetary policies and the COVID-19 global response to the crisis. Not only have we attempted to keep easy money policies for far too long in the US and foreign markets, but we've also been pushed into a hyperbolic price trend that started after 2017/18, which has increased global debt consumption/levels to the extreme.2022 and 2023 will likely reflect a very strong revaluation trend which I continue to call a longer-term "transition" within the global markets. This transition will probably take many forms over the next 24+ months – but mostly, it will be about deleveraging debt levels and the destruction of excess risk in the markets. In my opinion, that means the strongest global economies may see some strength over the next 24+ months – but may also see extreme price volatility and extreme price rotation as this transition takes place.Expect The Unexpected in 2022 & 2023The US major indexes had an incredible 2021 – rallying across all fears and COVID variants. The NASDAQ and S&P500 saw the biggest gains in 2021 – which may continue into early 2022. Yet I feel the US markets will continue to transition as the global markets continue to navigate the process of unwinding excess debt levels and potentially deleveraging at a more severe rate than many people expect.Because of this, I feel the US markets may continue to strengthen as global traders pile into the US Dollar based assets in early 2022. Until global pressures of deleveraging and transitioning away from excesses put enough pressure on the US stock market, the perceived safety of US assets and the US Dollar will continue as it is now.(Source: www.StockCharts.com)Watch For Sector Strength In Early 2022 As Price-Pressure & Supply-Side Issues Create A Unique Opportunity For Extended Revenues/ProfitsI believe the US markets will see a continued rally phase in early 2022 as Q4:2021 revenues, earnings, and economic data pour in. I can't see how any global economic concerns will disrupt the US markets if Q4:2021 data stays stronger than expected for US stocks and the US economy.That being said, I do believe certain sectors will be high-fliers in Q1:2022 and Q2:2022 – at least until the supply-side issues across the globe settle down and return to more normal delivery expectations. This means sectors like Automakers, Healthcare, Real Estate, Consumer Staples & Discretionary, Technology, Chip manufacturers, and some Retail segments (Construction, Raw Materials, certain consumer products sellers, and specialty sellers) will drive a new bullish trend in 2022.The US major indexes may continue to move higher in 2022. They may also be hampered by sectors struggling to find support or over-weighted in symbols that were over-hyped through the end of 2020 and in early 2021.I have been concerned about this type of transition throughout most of 2021 (particularly after the MEME/Reddit rally phase in early 2021). That type of extreme trending usually leads to an unwinding process. I still don't believe the US and global markets have completed the unwinding process after the post-COVID extreme rally phase.(Source: www.StockCharts.com)Will The Lazy-Bull Strategy Continue To Outperform In 2022 & 2023?This is a tricky question to answer simply because I can't predict the future any better than you can. But I do believe moving towards a higher-level analysis of global market trends when the proposed "transitioning" is starting to take place allows traders to move away from "chasing price spikes." It also allows them to position for momentum strength in various broader market sectors and indexes.I suspect we'll start to see annual reports from some of the biggest institutional trading firms on the planet that show feeble performance in 2021. This recent article caught my attention related to Quant Funds in China.I believe we will see 2022 and 2023 stay equally distressing for certain styles of trading strategies while price volatility and an extreme deleveraging/transitioning trend occur. Trying to navigate this type of choppy global market trending on a short-term basis can be very dangerous. I believe it is better to move above all this global market chop and trade the bigger momentum trends in various sectors and indexes.Part III of this research article will focus on Q1 through Q4 expectations for 2022 and 2023. I will highlight broader sector/index trends that may play out well for investors and traders who can move above the low-level choppiness in the US and global markets.WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE TECHNICAL INVESTOR AND THE TECHNICAL INDEX & BOND TRADING STRATEGIES?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may begin a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to take a few minutes to visit the Technical Traders website to learn about our Technical Investor and Technical Index and Bond Trading strategies and how they can help you protect and grow your wealth.Have a great day!

FOMC minutes didn‘t reveal fresh hawkish tunes, but markets were caught off guard – unlike 3 weeks ago during the statement and press conference. It‘s as if S&P 500 and pretty much everything else woke up to the hawkish reality only now. In spite of the new liquidity powered Santa Claus rally, the sudden realization that the March Fed meeting might very well bring in a first rate hike, forced a sharp downturn across the board.The dollar wasn‘t too affected by the daily rise in yields that hit junk bonds particularly hard. The yield curve keeps being compressed, and is getting closer to the point of inversion. The likely good employment data on Friday would provide the Fed with a convenient cover to embark on and keep pursuing the tightening route. Not that it would have the power to break inflation (even at the professed very accelerated tapering pace – let alone the relatively measly hikes when CPI, PPI or PCE deflator are considered) – this game of chicken with the markets risks a tantrum that could bring up the „fond memories“ of Dec 2018.Yes, the risks of crashing the airplane would grow up over the coming weeks and months – the Fed is walking a very tight rope indeed. Markets are spooked, and the coming days would show whether this is already the start of something worse, or whether we can still shake it off and continue upwards till the Olympics. I‘m still leaning towards the latter.Anyway, good to have closed the profitable S&P 500 and crude oil positions in time.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookTech understandably declined more than value – thanks to yields. S&P 500 bottom might not yet be in really. Bonds and tech need to stabilize first.Credit MarketsHYG is still holding the key, and would provide an early turnaround sign. The plunge in LQD isn‘t looking short-term encouraging in the least – the dust hasn‘t yet settled.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver still haven‘t left the sideways consolidation pattern – the white metal would be more affected through the inflation taming fears. That‘s though a premature calculation as inflation might turn out less amenable to be put down fast.Crude OilUnlike practically everything else, crude oil recovered strongly from the FOMC-induced setback – and certainly looks like the strongest of the pack at the moment.CopperCopper gave up advantageous position, and isn‘t really following (energy-led) commodities up yet. The long sideways consolidation is testing the bulls‘ resolve even as the pressure to go higher is building up. The same for silver, by the way.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum clearly lost the remainder of the bullish posture – it‘s turning out they aren‘t ready to defy the shrinking global liquidity.SummaryS&P 500 bulls look to get under some more pressure before the repeated hawkish message gets absorbed. The bond markets coupled with the dollar would reveal just how serious the bulls are about buying this dip and now. My bet is that they would remain shaken, and looking hesitantly for a floor. If there is one overarching message from yesterday, it‘s that the hawkish Fed appreciation has been woefully misapprehanded, and if followed through on in its entirety, would lead to a dangerous game of chicken with the markets (we aren‘t there quite yet).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

During my 25 years of trading and mentoring others, I have been dragged through the coals a few times. And by that, I mean I have; blown up a few trading accounts; had some massive gains only to watch them turn into worthless penny stocks, and; I even had one trade based around the volatility index blow up and become worthless the day after I bought it. I've had many other painful and costly trading experiences between those as well, and I know there will be more in the future. This leads me to the first topic I would like to talk about – learning through experience.#1 - Learned Through Expensive ExperiencesI help a lot of traders each year from all walks of life. They range from 18 to 85+ years of age. Some are total newbies, financial advisors, money managers, all the way up to billionaires. What is apparent is that the most successful traders (those who make money year after year) have the same things in common with how they trade. They all: walk a straight and somewhat unemotional line outside of learning from losses and trading mistakes.  focus on managing their capital because they understand just how quick and easy it is to lose money, which is why they focus and follow strict rules. follow very specific trading strategies/rules and do not trade on emotions. protect their capital ALWAYS with stops and position management only trade specific trade setups that put the probabilities in their favor focus heavily on index and bond positions say their trading feels slow/boring most of the time trade multiple strategies#2 - Ignore High Flying, News, Manipulated, and Hype Based MovesIt's hard not to participate in some of these wild rallies and stock crashes we have seen over the last couple of years. It's a natural tendency to want to take part in what everyone else is doing, and the lure of instant oversized gains is powerful. But, unfortunately, most individuals who get involved in these trades lose money for a good reason. They are trading based on greed/emotions with no real measured trading plan.Don't get me wrong; I'm not saying, "don't trade these stocks." In fact, many of these are incredible opportunities for experienced traders. These types of stocks generally become ideal for day traders and even momentum and aggressive swing traders. They can provide some quick extra cash. But that's what these types of trades are - small, fast, higher risk trades that only a seasoned trader should trade.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!For some reason, traders come into this business thinking it's a game and believes these are the types of trades that should always be traded. They take oversized positions only to experience significant damaging losses to their account.I conducted a survey a little while back, and the survey results blew my mind. Most people want to trade the volatile media-driven hype stocks and commodities. People fall in love with specific assets and want to trade only those, even if there are better assets and more efficient ways to pull money out of the market.The results below frustrate the heck out of me because, to me, it makes no logical sense if you are in the market to make money.Trader Survey Results Confirm Why it is Hard To Make MoneyThe above results make sense as studies have proven that humans react seven times more based on emotions versus logic. This is why the stock market has such wild price swings with Euphoric blowoff tops and Panic washout lows.People are highly addicted to riding their emotions (adrenaline/dopamine), and they love the rush of fast-moving stocks and gambling, which is why the markets are regulated, along with casinos, for that matter. Simply put, people lose control of common sense and logic when they are on tilt with emotion.Fast-moving assets with extreme volatility act as a bug-zapper light, which attracts bugs, only to kill anything that gets too close. In this case, new traders think they can make quick and easy money from hot stock in the news.Trading is a numbers game, and it requires logic, rules,and a proven strategy to win long-term.Based on the survey we did with thousands of traders, you can see that making the same amount of money with fewer trades and lower risk is not that exciting. Instead, traders prefer high volatility assets like metals, and natural gas, which are manipulated and have large wild price swings.Also, from a trading statics point of view, those two are among the most difficult to trade.As a pilot, I know the importance of keeping calm, having checklists/rules, and systems in place. Without them, you will eventually crash and burn; it is just a matter of time. The same holds true for trading and investing in that you need to trade what makes the most money, trade only the best setups, and have the lowest risk.Hottest Symbols vs Biggest TrendsBottom line, I don't care about trading every day or trying to catch the hottest symbols everyone is talking about. Instead, I care about catching and riding the biggest trends in the US stock index and the Treasury Bond ETFs. These are highly liquid sentiment trends that produce oversized gains each year. This is also the reason ETFs have taken over the mutual fund market and why financial advisors and hedge funds primarily trade/own stock index funds and bonds.Through the Technical Index and Bond ETF Trading strategy, I help individuals and advisors trade more efficiently. This strategy trades SPY, SSO, SPXL, QQQ, QLD, TQQQ and TLT, TBT, TMF, which generate large, compounded returns as shown in the chart below:This proprietary ETF trading strategy is straightforward and only generates about 3 to 10 trades per year. Most traders dislike this type of strategy because it lacks lots of action and volatility. If you noticed, you won't find many professional advisors telling you to jump into the fast-moving hype stocks, and for a good reason - they know better and want to protect your hard-earned capital. #3 - The Power Of Slow & Steady Gains Are Mind-Bending!As I learned a long time ago (and this holds true for almost everything across the board), learning something new, like mastering how to trade slower, consistent strategies, can take some getting used to. Everything new will always be a challenge, but once you master something, it becomes simple, low stress, and you will experience more consistent results.Take a look at this data from an Atalanta Sosnoff report. This should get my point across about how powerful slow, boring, consistent returns pack a powerful punch and why thousands of traders from 82 countries follow my index and bond trading signals.Source: Eagle Asset Management.The Technical Index & Bond ETF trading strategy has consistently produced positive annual results (CGAR average ROI 15% - 51% depending on ETF leverage, only 7 - 21% max drawdown). If you traded with the 2x or 3x ETFs, you would have crushed the S&P 500 every year and experienced that rush feeling that leverage/volatility provides but within a safer/smarter way.Passive trading styles like this are a bit different from those you may have traded in the past. My objectives consist of four very important concepts:Protect Capital At All Times.Trade Only When Strategically Opportunistic (probabilities are favorable).Trade Efficiently Using Bonds As Trade When Fear Rises among traders and investors.Move to cash or money market fund when the index and bonds are both out of favor.Concluding Thoughts:In short, I hope this has helped confirm your thinking of trading less and focusing on more solid trade setups. Or maybe it has opened your eyes to the world of slow and steady gains wins the race, with much less stress and effort.If you are interested in learning more about TIBT – Technical Index & Bond Trader, I invite you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/twa 

Nonfarm Payrolls in US is forecast to increase by 400,000 in December. Gold is likely to react more significantly to a disappointing jobs report than an upbeat one. Gold's movement has no apparent connection with NFP deviation four hours after the release. Historically, how impactful has the US jobs report been on gold’s valuation? In this article we present results from a study in which we analyzed the XAU/USD’s pair reaction to the previous 18 NFP prints*. We present our findings as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) gets ready to release the December jobs report on Friday, January 7. Expectations are for a 400,000 rise in Nonfarm Payrolls following the 210,000 increase in November. *We omitted the NFP data for March 2021, which was published on the first Friday of April, due to lack of volatility amid Easter Friday. Methodology We plotted gold price’s reaction to the NFP release at 15 minutes, one hour and four hours intervals after the release. Then we compared the gold price reaction to the deviation between the actual NFP release result and the expected result. We used the FXStreet Economic Calendar for data on deviation as it assigns a deviation point to each macroeconomic data release to show how big the divergence was between the actual print and the market consensus. For instance, the August NFP data missed the market expectation of 750,000 by a wide margin and the deviation was -1.49. On the other hand, February’s NFP print of 536,000 against the market expectation of 182,000 was a positive surprise with the deviation posting 1.76 for that particular release. A better-than-expected NFP print is seen as a USD-positive development and vice versa. Finally, we calculated the correlation coefficient (r) to figure out at which time frame gold had the strongest correlation with an NFP surprise. When r approaches -1, it suggests there is a significant negative correlation, while a significant positive correlation is identified when r moves toward 1. Since gold is defined as XAU/USD, an upbeat NFP reading should cause it to edge lower and point to a negative correlation. Results There were ten negative and seven positive NFP surprises in the previous 17 releases, excluding data for March 2021. On average, the deviation was -0.93 on disappointing prints and 0.47 on strong figures. 15 minutes after the release, gold moved up by $3.87 on average if the NFP reading fell short of market consensus. On the flip side, gold gained $0.03 on average on positive surprises. This finding suggests that investors’ immediate reaction is likely to be more significant to a disappointing print. However, the correlation coefficients we calculated for the different time frames mentioned above don’t even come close to being significant. The strongest negative correlation is seen 15 minutes after the releases with the r standing at -0.4. One hour after the release, the correlation weakens with the r rising to -0.23 and there is virtually no correlation to speak of four hours after the release with the r approaching 0. Several factors could be coming into play to weaken gold’s correlation with NFP surprises. Several hours after the NFP release on Friday, investors could look to book their profits toward the London fix, causing gold to reverse its direction after the initial reaction. Additionally, US Treasury bond yields’ movements have been impacting gold’s action lately and a decline in the benchmark 10-year T-bond yield on an upbeat jobs report could make it difficult for the USD to gather strength against its rivals, limiting XAU/USD’s downside.    

Gold languished near a two-week low amid a goodish rebound in the equity markets.Subdued USD price action extended some support to the dollar-denominated metal.Investors also seemed reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the US NFP report.Update: Gold faded an early North American bullish spike and dropped to a fresh three-week low, around the $1.785 region in reaction to mixed US jobs report. The headline NFP showed that the economy added 199K new jobs in December, missing estimates for a reading of 400K. The disappointment, however, was offset by an upward revision of the previous month’s reading to 249K from 210K. Adding to this, the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, beating expectations for a modest downtick to 4.1% from 4.2% previous, reaffirming expectations for an eventual Fed lift-off in March.This was evident from elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, continued acting as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. That said, modest US dollar weakness continued lending some support to the dollar-denominated gold. This, along with the cautious mood around the equity markets, helped limit the downside for the safe-haven XAU/USD. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to post the biggest weekly decline since late November.Previous update: Gold remained depressed for the third successive day on Friday and was last seen hovering near a two-week low, just below the $1,790 level during the early European session. A slight improvement in global risk sentiment – as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets – acted as a headwind for the safe-haven XAU/USD. Apart from this, the Fed's hawkish outlook was seen as another factor that undermined the non-yielding yellow metal. It is worth recalling that the minutes of the December FOMC meeting released on Wednesday showed that some policymakers want to tighten monetary policy faster to combat stubbornly high inflation.The markets were quick to react and are now anticipating a roughly 80% chance for an eventual lift-off in March, which was further reinforced by the overnight comments by Fed officials. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed could raise rates as soon as March and is now in a good position to take more aggressive steps to control inflation. Separately, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly too supported the prospects for an early rate hike. This comes on the back of a shift from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, expecting two rate hikes this year as against his long-held view that the Fed should hold off on rate hikes until 2024.This, in turn, pushed the US 2-year notes, which are sensitive to rate hike expectations along with 5-year notes, to a near two-year high. Moreover, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond shot to levels not seen since March 2021. Investors, however, preferred to wait and see if the US jobs data (NFP), due later during the early North American session, would reinforce the need for higher interest rates. This, in turn, kept US dollar bulls on the defensive and extended some support to the dollar-denominated gold. Nevertheless, the commodity, at current levels, remains on track to post the biggest weekly decline since late November.Technical outlookFrom a technical perspective, this week’s rejection near the $1,830-32 supply zone and the subsequent downfall might have already shifted the bias in favour of bearish traders. Some follow-through selling below the $1,785 horizontal support will reaffirm the negative outlook and set the stage for a further near-term depreciating move. Gold might then accelerate the downward trajectory towards the $1,770-69 intermediate support en-route to the December 2021 swing low, around the $1,753 region.On the flip side, the $1,800 mark, coinciding with a technically significant 200-day SMA, now seems to act as immediate strong resistance. Sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering move and push gold prices towards the $1,815 hurdle. Some follow-through buying should allow bulls to aim back to challenge a strong barrier near the $1,830-32 region.Gold daily chartTechnical levels to watchXAU/USDOVERVIEWToday last price1787.89Today Daily Change-0.29Today Daily Change %-0.02Today daily open1788.18 TRENDSDaily SMA201799.96Daily SMA501804.8Daily SMA1001792.88Daily SMA2001800.52 LEVELSPrevious Daily High1811.62Previous Daily Low1786.47Previous Weekly High1830.39Previous Weekly Low1789.51Previous Monthly High1830.39Previous Monthly Low1753.01Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1796.08Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1802.01Daily Pivot Point S11779.23Daily Pivot Point S21770.27Daily Pivot Point S31754.08Daily Pivot Point R11804.38Daily Pivot Point R21820.57Daily Pivot Point R31829.53

Shiba Inu price bounces off the daily demand zone, extending from $0.0000269 to $0.0000293.Increased buying pressure could propel SHIB by 31% to sweep the range high at $0.0000399.A four-hour candlestick close below $0.0000269 will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis.Shiba Inu price is at an interesting point in its journey since it has produced two areas of liquidity in the opposite direction. Adding to this exciting development is one hurdle that blocks the path for SHIB and might hinder the bullish outlook.Shiba Inu price prepares for a rallyShiba Inu price set up two swing lows at $0.0000283 on December 20, 2021, and January 5, creating the double bottom setup. Interestingly, this setup took place inside the daily demand zone, extending from $0.0000269 to $0.0000293.While SHIB has recovered above this area, it needs to rally 12% before it faces the trading range’s midpoint at $0.0000341. Clearing this barrier will lead the meme coin to face $0.0000349, which harbors the buy-stop liquidity resting above it. Shiba Inu price needs to clear $0.0000349 before it can reach the range high at $0.0000399, completing its 31% ascent.SHIB/USDT 4-hour chartDepicting the importance of the hurdle at $0.0000349 is IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model. This on-chain metric shows that roughly 110,570 addresses that purchased 82,785 billion SHIB tokens at an average price of $0.0000350 are underwater.Therefore, Shiba Inu price needs to flip this barrier to reduce the selling pressure from holders trying to break even.Beyond this area, the resistance barriers thin out until $0.0000680, supporting the bullish outlook detailed above.SHIB GIOMFurther indicating the oversold nature of Shiba Inu price is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model. This on-chain metric is used to determine the average profit/loss of investors that purchased SHIB over the past month.Currently, 30-day MVRV is hovering at -11.53%, an opportunity zone, suggesting that SHIB holders are at a loss and are less likely to sell their tokens. Moreover, long-term holders tend to accumulate in this area, which could serve as a significant source of buying pressure and could be the reason to kick-start an uptrend.SHIB MVRVWhile things are looking up for Shiba Inu price, a four-hour candlestick close below the daily demand zone’s lower limit at $0.0000269 will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. This development could trigger a crash, knocking Shiba Inu price to retest the $0.0000237 support level.

S&P 500 didn‘t shake off the post-FOMC minutes selloff in the least – and credit markets don‘t offer much short-term clarity either. Probably the brightest sign comes from the intraday reversal in financials higher – but tech still isn‘t catching breadth, which is key to the 500-strong index recovery. Bonds remained in the count down mode, as in not yet having regained composure and risk-on posture.The bottom might not be in, taking more time to play out – if we see a really strong non-farm payrolls figure, the odds of Fed tapering and rate hiking seriously drawing nearer, would be bolstered – to the detriment of most assets. So, we could be looking at a weak entry to today‘s S&P 500 session. But as the data came in at measly 199K, more uncertainty is introduced – will they or won‘t they (taper this fast and hike) – which works to drive chop and volatility.We‘re looking at another risk-off day today – and a reflexive but relatively tame rally in quality debt instruments. Crude oil is likely to be least affected, followed by copper as the red metals takes a second look at its recent weakness going at odds with broader commodities strength. Precious metals look to be a better bet in weathering the tightening into a weak economy storm than cryptos.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookNeither tech nor value offered clues for today‘s session – the downswing overall feels as having some more to go still, and that‘s based on the charts only. Add in the fundamentals, and it could get tougher still.Credit MarketsHYG upswing solidly rejected, and not even high volume helped the bulls – the dust doesn‘t look to be settled here either.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver feel the heat, and it might not be yet over in the short run, miners say. Still, note the big picture – we‘re still in a long sideways consolidation where the bears are unable to make lasting progress.Crude OilCrude oil bulls are enjoying the advantage here – firmly in the driver‘s seat. Pullback are being bought, and will likely continue being bought – the upcoming maximum downside will be very indicative of bulls‘ strength to overcome $80 lastingly.CopperCopper‘s misleading weakness continues, and similarly to precious metals, it‘s bidding its time as no heavy chart damage is being inflicted through this dillydallying.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are in a weaker spot, and the bearish pressure may easily increase here even more. This doesn‘t look to be the time to buy yet.SummaryS&P 500 still remains on edge and under pressure until convincing signs of turnaround develop – yesterday‘s session didn‘t qualify. With further proof of challenged real economy, a fresh uncertainty (how‘s that going to weather the hawkish Fed, and are they to listen and attenuate, or not?) is being introduced – short-term chop would give way to an increase in volatility. In the non-farm payrolls aftermath, markets haven‘t yet made up their minds – it‘s the riskier end of the asset classes to take the heat the most here (starting with cryptos). Don‘t look though for a tremendous rush into Treasuries – tech decoupling from the rising yields would be a first welcome sign of a local bottom.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Near November 24, 2021, I published a research article suggesting the Financial Sector, XLF in particular, may bottom and start to move higher, targeting the $43.60 level. After watching XLF rotate lower and form multiple bottoms near $37.50, it appears to finally be starting a new breakout rally phase ahead of Q4:2021 earnings. Will it rally up to my $43.60 target level before the end of January 2022? And how far could it rally beyond my $43.60 target?Using a simple Fibonacci Price Extension allowed me to target the $43.60 level. Duplicating that range and applying it to the top of the $43.60 target level will enable me to see a higher target range of $49.55. This upper target level would result from a 200% Fibonacci price rally from the original price range I identified back in late November 2021.Could it happen? Sure, it could happen. Financials are uniquely positioned to benefit from higher consumer engagement in almost all levels of the economy. Housing, consumer spending, credit/loan origination, fees and services, trading, and other services – they all combine into Banking and Financial Services. I expect Q4:2021 to show robust consumer engagement and housing data, likely prompting many financial firms' strong revenues/earnings results.My original financial sector (xlf) research article included (below) for you to review:The recent downward price rotation in the Financial Sector (XLF) may have frightened some traders, but my research suggests this move is setting up a future bullish price target near $43.60 – a more than +11% move. The end of the year Christmas Rally phase of the markets should drive spending and Q4:2021 expectations strongly into the first quarter of 2022. Unless something big breaks this market trend, traders should continue to expect a “melt-up” bullish price trend through at least early January 2022.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The Financial Sector continues to deliver strong earnings and revenue data each quarter. The way consumers and assets prices have reacted after the COVID market collapse says quite a bit about the ability of financial firms to generate future profits. Financial firms actively engage in financial services, traditional banking, real estate, and other investments, and corporate financing. The rising inflation trends and consumer spending activities suggest the US economy is still rallying after the COVID stimulus and recovery.Financials May Rally 10% to 15%, or more, by January 2022My analysis of XLF suggests this recent pullback in price may stall and start a new bullish price rally targeting the $43.60 level – a full 100% Fibonacci Price Extension of the last rally in XLF.This Daily XLF chart shows the extended rally in early 2021 and the brief pause in the price rally between June 2021 and early September 2021. Now that we've entered Q4:2021 and the US economy appears to be strengthening in the post-COVID recovery, my expectations are that most sectors, and the US major indexes, will rally throughout the end of 2021 and into early 2022.This recent pullback in XLF sets up a solid buying opportunity for traders targeting a +10% rally that may last well into January/February 2022 – or longer.Longer-term Financial Trends Suggest Another Rally Above $44 May Start SoonOver the past 6+ months, moderate rally phases in XLF have shown a range of about $4.00 to $4.50. I've highlighted two recent rally phases in XLF on this longer-term XLF Daily chart below with gold rectangles. I believe the next rally from the recent pullback will be similar in size and prompt a moderate upward price move targeting the $43.60 level – or higher.Although there are some concerns related to the continuing recovery in the US markets, I believe the momentum of the US recovery and the strength in the US Dollar will push many US sectors higher over the next 60+ days. Closing out Q4:2021 and starting Q1:2022 with a fairly strong rally that may surprise many traders.The Financial sector is likely to present very strong Q4:2021 revenues and earnings data as long as the global markets don't push some crisis event or other issue that could detract from the US economic recovery. Right now, the biggest issues seem to be China and Europe.Concluding thoughtsMy opinion is that any moderate price weakness in the Financial sector will be short-lived and will resolve into a bullish price rally, or "melt-upward" type of trend, as we move into early December 2021. Once the US Debt Ceiling issue is resolved, I believe the Financial sector will begin a very strong rally pushing prices above $44 or $45 as Q4:2021 earnings expectations drive investors' focus into Technology, Consumer Retail, Financials, and Real Estate.The strength of the US Dollar is driving large amounts of capital into US assets and stocks right now. Based on my research, it is very likely that the US major indexes and certain sectors will continue to rally into early January 2022. If my analysis proves accurate, we may see a +11% to +18% rally in XLF before the end of January.If you are interested in learning more about how my strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition, I invite you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

  As in sports, a weak market streak can reverse in the next season. However, the precious metals team looks like it’s about to drop out of the league. While gold, silver, and mining stocks were in the holiday spirit during the final weeks of 2021, I warned on Jan. 4 that the GDXJ ETF’s sleigh was headed for an epic crash. I wrote: The GDXJ ETF’s corrective upswing has likely run its course. Interestingly, the junior miners’ current rally mirrors the small correction that materialized in mid-2021 (early August). Back then, the GDXJ ETF rallied on low volume and didn’t recapture its 50-day moving average. With the same tepid strength present today, the drawdown that followed in mid-2021 will likely commence once again. On top of that, the behavior of the GDXJ ETF’s RSI is also similar – with the indicator moving from roughly 30 to 50. For context, I highlighted the similarities with green and purple ellipses below. Also noteworthy, similar developments occurred in February/March 2020, before the profound plunge unfolded. As a result, the GDXJ ETF looks set for another sharp drawdown over the medium term. After the junior mining stocks ETF proceeded to decline by more than 6% in two days, my short position rang in the New Year with solid gains. What’s more, with the GDXJ ETF likely to break below its 2021 lows over the medium term, winter woes should materialize before a long-term buying opportunity emerges. Please see below: Likewise, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling an ominous outcome for the senior miners, I warned that a sell-off was likely on the horizon. For context, I highlighted the historical similarities with the blue vertical dashed lines below. Moreover, with the GDX ETF’s weakness accelerating on Jan. 5/6, the senior miners have declined sharply in recent days. In addition, the current price action mirrors the senior miners’ ominous performance in July/August 2021 – just like I’ve been describing it for a few weeks now. As a result, the previous corrective upswing is likely over, and the GDX ETF should confront lower lows sooner rather than later. For context, a breakdown below the 2021 lows should materialize over the medium term, and the forecast for gold, as well as gold stocks, is bearish for the next several weeks / months. However, the milestone may not occur over the next few days. Turning to the HUI Index’s long-term chart, the same bearish signals are present. For example, I marked the specific tops with red and black arrows. In the current situation, we saw yet another small move up, but that’s most likely because the price moves are now less volatile. The areas marked with red ellipses remain similar and show back-and-forth movement before the big decline. As such, while we’ve entered a consolidation phase, this week’s selling pressure has been quite ferocious. Thus, the implications are not bullish but bearish. Finally, the GDX/GDXJ ratio continues to perform as expected. For example, I warned throughout 2021 that the ratio was destined for devaluation. ith the metric kicking off 2022 with another decline, the GDXJ ETF continues to underperform the GDX ETF. For context, I believe that gold, silver, and the GDX ETF are all ripe for sharp re-ratings over the medium term. However, I think that the GDXJ ETF offers the best risk-reward ratio due to its propensity to materially underperform during bear markets. As a result, shorting junior miners offers a great risk to reward trade-off. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks began 2022 with the same weakness that plagued them in 2021. While the worst performers one year often become the best performers the next, the charts signal more weakness ahead. As a result, while the precious metals are poised to soar over the long term, lower lows will likely materialize before their secular uptrends resume. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Stocks extended their downtrend yesterday, but the index closed virtually flat. So was it a short-term bottom? The S&P 500 index lost 0.1% on Thursday, Jan. 6, as it fluctuated following the Wednesday’s sell-off of almost 2%. The market reached new local low at 4,671.26 before bouncing back closer to the 4,700 level. So it traded almost 150 points below the Tuesday’s record high of 4,818.62. The recent consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern. And the market got back to its November-December trading range. On Dec. 3 the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the previous record high. So it was a pretty mild downward correction or just a consolidation following last year’s advances. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,700-4,720, and the next resistance level remains at around 4,750. On the other hand, the support level is now at 4,650, marked by some previous local highs. The S&P 500 remains close to the November’s-December’s consolidation local highs, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Apple Price Broke Below the Trend Line Apple stock broke below its two-month long upward trend line on Wednesday after reaching the new record high of $182.94 on Tuesday. So far, it looks like a downward correction and the nearest important support level is at $165-170, marked by the previous highs and lows. Is this a medium-term topping pattern? It’s getting very hard to fundamentally justify the Apple’s current market capitalization of around $3 trillion. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower today. So the volatility is on the light side after the mixed monthly jobs data release from this morning. We may see some more short-term fluctuations and possibly an intraday upward correction. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 fluctuated following its Wednesday’s sell-off. Jobs data release was mixed and rather neutral for the markets. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Happy new year, everyone! We hope that 2022 will be a prosperous one for all our readers. However, will it be successful for oil? Energy Market Updates Yesterday, crude oil prices ended higher, after a volatile session as US inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels – more than twice the previous week – which is another positive sign for demand. US inventories levels of crude oil, gasoline, and distillates stocks are again forecasted to fall by about 3 million more than expected last week. That would be another significant decline on the back of greater demand, according to estimated figures released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) yesterday. (Source: Investing.com) Crude oil prices stabilized near their 6-week highs following the OPEC+ group meeting, which maintained a limited increase in production of 400k barrels/day (no surprise). It is therefore a matter of maintaining an increase in production for the seventh consecutive month. This also shows that the organization was confident and believed in the resistance of global oil demand despite the recent restrictions implemented by several governments scared by Omicron, even though those travel restrictions may likely delay the resumption of aviation demand. RBOB Gasoline (RBG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart) WTI Crude Oil (CLG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the Henry Hub (US benchmark) is slowly climbing as temperatures are dropping in many regions, while the European benchmark, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), rallied 3.5% as European gas prices remain extremely volatile due to reduced exports from Russia (notably via the Yamal pipeline) but also via Ukraine. The upward momentum is also linked to weather forecasts, such as colder temperatures and frost encountering the European continent in the coming days and weeks, which may obviously have a stimulating effect on gas demand. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart) Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  What a way to start a year! Gold just faked its comeback before moving to new yearly lows. That’s a very bearish way for a market to start the year. Given that miners underperformed gold and silver briefly outperformed it, we have a very bearish storm brewing for the next couple of weeks / months. On Jan 3, I wrote the following: The year 2021 is over, 2022 has finally arrived. However, why does the current price action look “sooo last year”? Because the patterns appear to be repeating and the clearest similarity is present in the key precious metal – gold itself. Gold prices moved higher in late December, and it happened on low volume. The rally caused the stochastic indicator to move above 80 and the RSI above 50. That’s exactly what happened in both: late 2021 and late 2020. What does it mean? Well, it means that we shouldn’t trust this rally, as it could end abruptly, just like the one that we saw a year ago. Besides, gold corrected 61.8% of the preceding decline (so it moved to its most classic Fibonacci retracement), which means that – technically – what we saw in the past two weeks was just a correction, not the beginning of a new rally. And what happened next? Gold declined, faked its comeback, and then declined again to new yearly lows. 2022 continues to be a down year for gold, and this is particularly revealing, because early January is the time when the buy-backs should – theoretically – happen. I’m referring to the tendency for investors to exit losing positions (and – in tune with my expectations and against expectations of almost everyone else – 2021 was a down year for gold, silver, and mining stocks, after all) close to the end of the year, in order to harvest the tax loss, and then to get back into the market in early January. Despite the above tendency, gold is down, silver is down, and mining stocks are down as well. This shows that the precious metals market is weak (which has been clear since gold invalidated its breakout above the 2011 high in 2020) and is unlikely to soar significantly (in terms of hundreds of dollars) unless it slides first. Besides, at the beginning of major rallies, gold stocks tend to lead the way up. And right now, it’s exactly the opposite. The upper part of the above chart features the GDXJ ETF – proxy for junior mining stocks, the middle part features the GLD ETF – proxy for gold, and the bottom part features the S&P 500 Index. The red lines compare the previous stock market highs to what happened in junior miners, and the dotted lines show what juniors did when gold formed its recent highs and lows. In short, junior gold mining stocks are underperforming both: gold, and other stocks. This is as bearish as it can get, given the current situation regarding the USD Index (which is in a medium-term uptrend) and the situation in the interest rates, which are not only about to go up, but the expectations of them going up are becoming more and more hawkish. And that’s no accident either, as it’s in tune with the current political narrative in the U.S. – inflation is currently presented as the major enemy that needs to be dealt with. In other words, as the situation in interest rates is likely to become even more hawkish and the USD Index is likely to move higher, gold is likely to go down, and so – eventually – will the general stock market. And since junior mining stocks have already proven over and over again that they magnify declines on both markets, they are likely to fall particularly hard, when the above markets decline. We gained quite a lot based on the decline in the juniors in 2021, but it seems that the gains that could be reaped in 2022 (of course, I can’t and I’m not promising any kind of specific performance for any market) based on junior miners’ decline (and then their revival) could be breathtaking – but as always, only if one is positioned correctly for both major moves. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

EURUSD tests key resistance The US dollar retreated after December’s nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations. The pair has been in a narrowing range between 1.1270 and 1.1365. The previous fall below 1.1280 added pressure on the buy side, though it turned out to be an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate at a bargain. A break above the resistance could end the sideways action and trigger a runaway rally towards 1.1460. The RSI surged into the overbought area and may cause a brief pullback above 1.1295. USDCAD tests daily support The loonie rallied after Canada added twice as many jobs as expected in December. The year-end sell-off met strong bids near the daily support at 1.2620. But the rebound came to halt at the supply zone around 1.2810, which used to be a support from the previous consolidation. The RSI’s double top in the overbought zone has restrained the upward momentum. 1.2730 is a fresh resistance as price action is about to retest the critical level at 1.2620. A bearish breakout could trigger a plunge to 1.2540. GER 40 seeks support The Dax 40 edged lower as rising CPI in the eurozone argues in favor of tightening. The index saw stiff selling pressure right under the all-time high at 16300. A bearish RSI divergence in this major supply area indicates a lack of commitment from the bulls as buying slows down. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling has led to a drop below 16100, a warning sign for a steeper correction. 15800 is the next key support. A breakout could send the index to 15500 at the base of the latest rally.

The cryptocurrency market received moderate support from retail buyers over the weekend. Over the past 24 hours, the capitalisation of all coins rose 0.22%, according to CoinMarketCap, approaching $1.97 trillion. The top altcoins lost 11-19% over 7 days but found buyers over the weekend. The $2 trillion mark in total crypto valuation turned into local resistance last week, from where pressure has intensified. However, a strong buy-the-deep mood has kept the market from forming a downward spiral. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index was stuck at 23 over the weekend, indicating extreme fear. The index has been hovering at the lower half of the scale since November 18th. Optimists, however, may note that the indicator has bounced back from the 10 level. The dip here in May and July coincided with the lows within the impulse, hinting at the potential for some technical rebound. Technical analysis also suggests a rebound in BTCUSD, with the RSI on daily charts showing attempts to move up from the oversold area below 30 and the price hovering near the reversal area in September. A longer-term view of the cryptocurrency market makes one more cautious about its prospects. Bitcoin has been in a downward corridor since November last year, having fallen to its lower boundary by the end of last week. Local overselling is a chance for a rebound, but the overall trend is still downwards. Cryptocurrency investors should not dismiss the idea of 4-year cycles in Bitcoin affecting the entire sector just yet. According to this hypothesis, 2022 could turn out to be a repeat of 2018 and 2014 - bear market years after a surge in the previous two years. Thus, it is worth paying increased attention to whether the crypto market manages to return to growth in the coming days and weeks. A strong start to the year will put these fears to rest.

The Fed continued to surprise markets at the start of the year with hawkish rhetoric by unexpectedly raising discussions on balance sheet shrinking. Investors are noticing that the issue has been on the table much earlier than it was before. In the last episode of QE, it took almost two years from the start of tapering and allowing it to shrink. The pauses between regime switches gave time for the markets and the economy to adjust, and for the Central Bank to evaluate the results of the policy, because the lag between the change in policy and the peak of its impact on the economy often exceeds six months. In our view, there is a real risk that the markets and the Fed are being too hawkish in their forecasts, moving abruptly from denial of inflation to a willingness to use their entire arsenal at once to beat it. But such activity to rein in inflation could easily prove excessive. As Friday's labor market data showed, job growth in the U.S. continues to slow, at only 199K, an 11-month low and half of what was expected. The drop in the unemployment rate to 3.9%, the lowest since the pandemic began, reflects a decline in the number of people looking for work. But it hardly allows us to expect consumer spending to rise, depriving the economy of a crucial pro-inflationary factor. In addition, fertilizer prices fell at a multi-year record pace last week, container prices have retreated from their peaks, and logistical problems are slowly fading from the agenda. Rate futures are laying down a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike as early as March. Several forecasters also suggest that the rate will rise at each subsequent meeting. But this could come as an excessive shock to the economy, risking causing a recession without putting it firmly on the growth track. Interestingly, unlike the futures market, the currency market remains in a period of narrow sideways movement of just over 100 pips around 1.1300. It is unlikely that the ECB will act as quickly and decisively as the Fed. If projections for a rate hike by the latter as early as March and an accelerated move into a balance sheet reduction phase will form a strong upside potential for the dollar. However, after Friday's weak data we have a growing belief that the market has jumped ahead in expectations and a reversal of such will start soon, which will play against the dollar and relieve pressure on stocks.

AUDUSD attempts reboundThe Australian dollar bounces back over strong retail sales in November. The pair saw bids near a previous trough (0.7130).The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area attracted some traders in taking up the bargain. A bullish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the downward momentum. And a jump above 0.7180 could be the first step towards a bounce.The Aussie may surge to the daily resistance at 0.7360 if buyers succeed in lifting offers around 0.7270. Otherwise, the price could test the critical floor at 0.7080.USDJPY tests supportThe Japanese yen rose as risk appetite fades across markets.A bullish MA cross on the daily chart indicates that the dollar’s rally gained traction. However, an overbought RSI means that a pullback could be an opportunity for the bulls to buy dips.The dollar is testing the psychological level of 115.00, the origin of the rally above the November peak (115.50). An oversold RSI has brought in some buying interest. A bearish breakout could trigger a correction to 114.30. Then, the bulls will need to reclaim 115.90 in order to resume the uptrend.US 30 continues to retreatThe Dow Jones tumbled as US Treasury yields hit a two-year high on hike bets.A bearish RSI divergence foreshadowed the current sell-off. A drop below 36300 prompted leveraged positions to close out, driving up volatility as short-term sentiment deteriorated. Rebounds could be opportunities for the bears to sell into strength.35700 is an area of interest, as it lies in a former supply zone and along the 30-day moving average. 35200 would be a second layer of support, while 36400 is the immediate resistance.

Bitcoin briefly slipped below $40,000 in Monday's trading. BTC price sees a sharp recovery and a break above Monday’s high. As a broad recovery looks to be underway, expect bulls to target $50,000 in the first phase. Bitcoin (BTC) saw sellers squeeze out their final drop of gains on Monday after demand briefly dipped below $40,000. This level is in line with the low of the September 21 decline last year and BTC price bounced off the monthly S1 support level and a longer-term red descending trend line. Expect a turnaround from here, with demand switching to the buy-side with risk-on back on the front foot. BTC price set for a 180-turn back towards $50,000 Bitcoin price has given market participants quite a lot of pain at the start of 2022. Investors that came on strong out of the gate saw their investments devalue by 17%. On the horizon, however, the clouds start to evaporate, and during the European session, a global risk-on tone across assets is set to soothe and possibly erase the negative headwinds that were dictating price action these past ten days of the new year. Technically, BTC is set for recovery with an entry at around $39,800 and a bounce off the September 21 low, the monthly S1 support level and a rejection by the red descending trend line that formed since November 10. With the turnaround currently in global markets, cryptocurrencies are seeing a tailwind emerge that is set to break the high of Monday and could see it hit $44,088 later today. If markets can hold on to this momentum, expect that by Thursday bulls will attack the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the historical $48,760 level, which is then just inches away from $50,000, potentially within sight by the end of the week. BTC/USD daily chart With this turnaround, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) will likely see a bounce off the oversold border and start to drift towards the mid-50 area. This could open the door for short sellers to try and enter with sizeable short positions once $44,088 has been hit, and to seek to push BTC price further below $40,000, with $38,073 as the first price target. This will, at the same time, firmly disappoint investors who hoped to reach $50,000. Such a move, however, would most probably go hand in hand with global market sentiment returning to a depressive move.

S&P 500 reversed sharp intraday losses, and credit markets moved in a decisive daily risk-on fashion. Turnarounds anywhere you look – HYG, TLT, XLK… but will that last? VIX having closed where it opened, points to still some unfinished job on the upside, meaning the bears would return shortly – but given how fast they gave up the great run yesterday, I‘m not looking for them to make too much progress too soon. Good to have taken yesterday‘s short profits off the table. Assessing the charts, it‘s great (for the bulls) that tech liked the long-dated Treasuries reversal to such a degree – and that value closed little changed on the day (its candle is certainly ominously looking). As a result, we‘re looking at a budding reversal that can still go both ways, and revisit 4,650s in the bearish case at least. Remember that tech apart from $NYFANG lagged, and financials aren‘t yet broken either, meaning that the credit market upswing better be taken with a pinch of salt. True, rates have risen fast since the New Year, and the pace of yield increases has to moderate. I‘m of the opinion that yesterday‘s good Nasdaq showing hasn‘t yet turned tech bullish, and that we still face a move lower ahead. As written yesterday: (…) This is part of the flight from growth into value, which we will see more of in 2022. The same for still unpleasantly high inflation which won‘t be tamed by the hawkish Fed – not even if they really allow notes and bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds already in Mar. The train has left the station more than 6 or 9 months ago when they were pushing the transitory thesis I had been disputing. We have truly moved into the persistently high inflation paradigm, and it would be accompanied by wage inflation and strong precious metals and commodities runs. We‘re looking at very good year in gold and silver while the turbulence in stocks is just starting, and we have quite a few percent more to go on the downside. Oil and copper are set up for great gains too. This will be a year when monetary and fiscal policy work at odds, when they contradict each other. Inflation would catch up with the economic growth in that inflation-induced economic slowdown would be a 2022 surprise. Signs of real estate softening would also appear – it‘s all about housing starts. While rates would rise (2.00% in 10-year Treasury is perfectly achievable), it won‘t catch up with inflation in the least – hello some more negative rates, and financial repression driving real assets. Rhymes perfectly with the 1970s. Stocks aren‘t yet out of the woods, the yesterday opened oil position is already profitable, cryptos likewise maintain a gainful slant to the Sunday-opened short – meanwhile, precious metals are once again catching breadth to rise, and the same goes for copper. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The bid arrived, and the bottom may or may not be in – in spite of the beautiful lower knot, I‘m leaning towards the hypothesis that there would be another selling wave. Credit Markets HYG reversal looks certainly more credible than the S&P 500 one. LQD though didn‘t rise, which is a little surprising – on the other hand though, that‘s part of the risk-on posture, which would have been made clearer by LQD upswing. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver position is improving, and I like the miners coming alive. The stage is set for upswing continuation till we break out of the very long consolidation. Crude Oil Crude oil looks to have declined as much as it could in the short run – I‘m looking for another run to take out $80 – see how little ground oil stocks lost? Copper Copper didn‘t outshine, didn‘t disappoint – its long sideways move continues, the red metal remains well bid, and would play catch up to the other commodities – the bears aren‘t likely to enjoy much success over the coming months. Bitcoin and Ethereum Just as I wrote yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum continue trading on a weak note, and the sellers are likely to return soon. This certainly doesn‘t look like a good time to buy. Summary S&P 500 turnaround has a question mark on it – one that I‘m more inclined to think would lead to further selling than a run above 4,720. The tech and bonds progress would be challenged again – we‘re still way too early in the Fed tightening cycle when the headwinds are only becoming to be appreciated. The room for negative surprises and kneejerk reactions is still there (the job market isn‘t standing really in the Fed‘s way), and it would likely take stocks (and cryptos) down while being less of an issue for real assets – be it commodities or precious metals. Wage pressures and unfilled vacancies are likely to last, meaning the inflation would be persistent – the staglationary era coupled with inflation-induced economic slowdown surprise I mentioned yesterday, awaits. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Job creation disappointed in December. However, it could not be enough to counterweight rising real interest rates and save gold. On Thursday (January 6, 2022), I wrote that “the metal may find itself under hawk fire in the upcoming weeks”. Indeed, gold dropped sharply in the aftermath of the publication of the FOMC minutes. As the chart below shows, the hawkish Fed’s signal sent the price of the yellow metal from $1,826 to $1,789. This is because the minutes revealed that the Fed would be ready to cut its mammoth holdings of assets later this year. Previously, the US central bank was talking only about interest rate hikes and the ending of new asset purchases, i.e., quantitative easing. Now, the reverse process, i.e., quantitative tightening, is also on the table. What is surprising here is not the mere idea of shrinking the Fed’s assets – after all, they have risen to $8.7 trillion (see the chart above) – but its timing. Last time, the central bank started the normalization of its balance sheet only in 2018, nine years after the end of the Great Recession and four years after the completion of tapering. This time, QT may start within a few months after the end of tapering and the first interest rate hikes. It looks like 2022 will be a hot year for US monetary policy – and the gold market. Consequently, markets have been increasingly pricing in a more decisive Fed, which boosted bond yields. As the chart below shows, the long-term real interest rates (10-year TIPS) jumped from -1.06% at the end of 2021 to -0.73 at the end of last week. The upward move in the interest rates is fundamentally negative for gold prices.   Implications for Gold Luckily for the yellow metal, nonfarm payrolls disappointed in December. Last month, the US labor market rose, adding just 199,000 jobs (see the chart below), well short of consensus estimates of 400,000. This negative surprise lifted gold prices slightly on Friday (January 7, 2021). The latest employment report suggests that labor shortages and the spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus are holding back job creation and the overall economy. However, gold bulls shouldn’t count on weak job gains to trigger a sustainable rally in the precious metals. This is because the American economy is still approaching full employment. The unemployment rate declined further to 3.9% from 4.2% in November, as the chart below shows. The drop confirms that the US labor market is very tight, so weak job creation won’t discourage the Fed from hiking the federal funds rate. As a reminder, in December, FOMC members forecasted the unemployment rate to be 4.3% at the end of 2021. What is crucial here is that disappointing job gains reflect labor shortages rather than weak demand. Additionally, wage growth remains pretty fast, despite the decline in the annual rate from 5.1% in November to 4.7% in December. The key takeaway is that, despite disappointing job creation, the US economy is moving quickly towards full employment. The unemployment rate is at 3.9%, very close to the pre-pandemic low of 3.7%. Hence, the latest employment situation report may only reinforce arguments for the Fed’s tightening cycle. This is fundamentally bad news for gold, as strengthened expectations of the interest rate hikes may boost real interest rates further and put the yellow metal under downward pressure. Some analysts believe that hawkish sentiment might be at its peak. I’m not so sure about that. I believe that monetary hawks haven’t said the last word yet, and that the normalization of the interest rates is still ahead of us. Anyway, Powell will appear in the Senate today, so we should get more clues about the prospects for monetary policy and gold this year. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  The imminent interest rate hike by the Fed is almost certain. Are investors' concerns justified and will it mean trouble for the precious metals?  While the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite recovered from sharp intraday losses on Jan. 10, investors’ mood swings signaled heightened anxiety. With the PMs whipsawing alongside the general stock market, more volatility should materialize in the weeks and months to come. To explain, with the Fed on a hawkish warpath to fight rampant inflation, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Jan. 10 that a resilient U.S. economy could prove problematic for the financial markets in 2022. “The consumer balance sheet has never been in better shape; they’re spending 25% more today than pre-COVID,” said Dimon. “Their debt-service ratio is better than it’s been since we’ve been keeping records for 50 years.” As for inflation and the Fed: “It’s possible that inflation is worse than they think and they raise rates more than people think. I personally would be surprised if it’s just four [interest rate] increases [in 2022],” he added. How would the financial markets react? Source: CNBC Singing a similar tune, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Jan. 10 that the Fed’s rate hike cycle could slaughter emerging markets. Its report revealed: “For most of last year, investors priced in a temporary rise in inflation in the United States given the unsteady economic recovery and a slow unravelling of supply bottlenecks. Now sentiment has shifted. Prices are rising at the fastest pace in almost four decades and the tight labor market has started to feed into wage increases.”   Volatile Days Ahead While I warned for all of 2021 that inflationary pressures were bullish for the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields and bearish for the PMs, the IMF stated: “Faster Fed rate increases in response could rattle financial markets and tighten financial conditions globally. These developments could come with a slowing of US demand and trade and may lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation in emerging markets.” As a result, even the IMF is anxiously bullish on the USD Index: For a good reason. With September, July, June, and May all gone by the wayside, now, the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in March has risen to nearly 83%. For context, the probability of a March liftoff was less than 10% in early November. Please see below: Likewise, the market-implied probability of four rate hikes by the Fed in 2022 has risen to nearly 87%. Again, the probability was less than 50% in early November. Please see below: Why the material shift? Well, while I’ve been warning for months that rampant inflation would elicit a hawkish about-face from the Fed, investors are finally coming around to this reality. With inflation still running hot, market participants understand that pricing pressures won’t subside without policy responses from the Fed. As a result, the “transitory” narrative is dead, and investors have lost one of their staunchest allies. This means that predicting silver and gold at higher levels in the medium term might not be the best idea. To that point, Bank of America’s dove-hawk spectrum shows that the dovish brigade has lost several soldiers. With the hawks now on the offensive, the officials preaching monetary patience are few and far between.  Please see below: For context, Bank of America still places San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly in the dovish bucket. However, I noted on Dec. 23 that she has materially shifted her stance in recent weeks: Source: The New York Times Furthermore, with inflationary pressures still bubbling, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index hit another all-time high of 236.2 in December, as “wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 1.6% month-over-month.” Please see below: On top of that, the cost of shipping from Shanghai, China, is still increasing. With the U.S. importing more goods from China than any other nation, the inflationary impact on the U.S. economy is material. Please see below: Finally, while the GDXJ ETF benefited from the NASDAQ Composite’s intraday reversal on Jan. 10, I warned on Oct. 26 that monetary policy tightening would eventually upend the junior miners. I wrote: To explain, the green line above tracks the GDXJ ETF from the beginning of 2013 to the end of 2015. If you analyze the left side of the chart, you can see that when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at tapering on May 22, 2013, the GDXJ ETF declined by 32% from May 22 until the taper began on Dec. 18. Moreover, the onslaught didn’t end there. Once the taper officially began, the GDXJ ETF enjoyed a relief rally (similar to what we’re witnessing now), as long-term interest rates declined and the PMs assumed that the worst was in the rearview. However, as the liquidity drain caught up to the junior miners over the medium term, the GDXJ ETF declined by another 36% from when the taper was announced on Dec. 18, 2013 until the end of 2015. To that point, with part one already on the books, the second act will likely unfold once the Fed formally begins its taper in “either mid-November or mid-December.” Thus, history implies that the GDXJ ETF still has plenty of downside left. While the junior miners' ETF has declined by more than 11% since Oct. 26, Goldman Sachs has come around to our way of thinking. Please see below: To explain, Goldman Sachs told its clients last week that the yellow metal has been following its ominous path since 2013/2014 (as you may recall, I’ve been writing about the 2013-now analogy for months). For context, the red line above tracks gold’s price action from July 2010 until December 2014, while the blue line above tracks gold’s price action from July 2019 until now. If you analyze the symmetrical overlay, you can see that the pair have been in sync for some time. Moreover, if you focus your attention on the red line’s plight as time passes, it’s clear why Goldman Sachs is warning its clients about “further downside risk”. To that point, with the investment bank forecasting a real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate regime change in 2022, gold is poised to suffer along the way. To explain, the various bars above track gold’s monthly returns when the real U.S. Federal Funds Rate (dark blue), the real U.S. 5-Year Treasury yield (green), and the real U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (light blue) begin with positive/negative values and then increase/decrease. If you focus your attention on the bars furthest to the right, you can see that when the real U.S. 5-Year Treasury yield and the real U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield are negative and then rise, gold suffers its worst monthly performances. Moreover, with the current fundamental environment presenting us with precisely that, similar results will likely materialize over the medium term. The bottom line? While investors desperately bought the dip on Jan. 10, the more than 2% intraday swing in the NASDAQ Composite screamed of monetary policy anxiety. With another hot inflation print poised to hit the wire on Jan. 12, the reprieve will likely be short-lived. Furthermore, with the PMs suffering from a similar fundamental affliction – as both the PMs and technology stocks are extremely allergic to rising interest rates – volatility is likely here to stay. As a result, the Fed should continue to break investors’ hearts over the medium term. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Jan. 10, though their fundamental outlooks remain profoundly bearish. With interest rates poised to rise and the USD Index still undervalued, more headwinds should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. As a result, long-term buying opportunities are likely still a ways away. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XRP price has been massing losses since Christmas, already accounting for 33%. Price action sees a pick-up in buying volume as a floor is created around $0.31. As bulls start to reclimb from the lows, a squeeze looks to unfold with a possible break of the downturn in the coming days. Ripple (XRP) has been in a downtrend since Christmas and has investors worried at the beginning of 2022. The sell-off, sparked by worries about rising interest rates in the U.S., has formed a solid downtrend, highlighted by the red descending trend line, and supported by the cross of the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) below the 200-day (SMA).. Bulls could turn the tables in coming days, however, as they push higher (green trendline) and press up against the red ascending trend line. A change in market risk sentiment towards risk-on could then see a breakout and return towards $0.78. XRP will start recovery once market sentiments shift back to risk on XRP price has been hammered by a broad sell-off that has pushed the stars out of favor of any bullish reaction. The most significant weight comes from the downtrend since Christmas, marked by the red descending trend line. The crossing of the 55-day SMA below the 200-day SMA is called a death cross that will keep big investors out of the trade given how bearish it is.. A floor appears to be forming, however, as the lows slowly grind higher forming a floor from January 5 and brave bulls do have some incentives to now start entering at an extended position. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the oversold area but starting to flatline, which indicates bulls have a good window of opportunity to enter as more short-sellers will refrain from entering the market right now, as any possible profits will be expected to be minimal. Once global markets start to shake off their current turmoil, expect XRP to quickly see a bullish pick-up of buying volume that could help it break above the red ascending trend line, and move towards the first target at $0.78. XRP/USD daily chart XPR price is likely to further increase buying volume once it reaches $0.78 and push higher up to the monthly pivot at $0.84. A further continuation could be on the cards if markets rally and have a few consecutive days of gains. As all this depends on global market sentiment, expect a break of the green ascending trend line to push price further to the downside in search of any support, which could not be seen until $0.62 or even $0.58 with the green longer-term supporting level and the S1 monthly support level.

GBPUSD rally gains tractionThe US dollar fell after the Fed Chair’s remark that no decision has been made on quantitative tightening. The pair showed some weakness near the daily resistance at 1.3600.The RSI’s double top in the overbought area led some buyers to take chips off the table. However, a follow-up close above the resistance indicates that the bulls are still in control of the direction.Sentiment remains upbeat and 1.3700 from the start of the November sell-off would be the next target. 1.3570 is a fresh support in case of a pullback.NZDUSD bounces off major supportThe New Zealand dollar recovers as risk appetite returns following Jerome Powell’s testimony.The previous rebound towards 0.6830 met strong selling pressure. Its failure to achieve a new high suggests that the bearish bias lingers. The drop below 0.6740 further weighs on the kiwi. A bounce could still be an opportunity to sell into strength.The bulls need to clear 0.6835 in order to turn the tide, and 0.6730 is a fresh support. A bearish breakout may test the base of December’s bounce at 0.6700.EURJPY maintains uptrendThe euro recoups losses as traders dump safe-haven currencies. The fall below 130.80 has shaken out some weak hands.Nonetheless, the upward bias remains intact after the single currency saw solid demand over the psychological level of 130.00. The RSI’s oversold situation compounded the attractiveness of the discount.A rise above 131.60 would bring in momentum traders and clear the path for an extended rally to 132.55 near last October’s peak. 129.10 is the second line of defence in case of a deeper retracement.

  2021 will be remembered as the year of inflation’s comeback and gold’s dissatisfying reaction to it. Will gold improve its behavior in 2022? You thought that 2020 was a terrible year, but we would be back to normal in 2021? Well, we haven’t quite returned to normal. After all, the epidemic is not over, as new strains of coronavirus emerged and spread last year. Actually, in some aspects, 2021 was even worse than 2020. Two years ago, the pandemic was wreaking havoc. Last year, both the pandemic and inflation were raging. To the great surprise of mainstream economists fixated on aggregate demand, 2021 would be recorded in chronicles as the year of the supply factors revenge and the great return of inflation. For years, the pundits have talked about the death of inflation and mocked anyone who pointed to its risk. Well, he who laughs last, laughs best. However, it’s laughter through inflationary tears. Given the highest inflation rate since the Great Stagflation, gold prices must have grown a lot, right? Well, not exactly. As the chart below shows, 2021 wasn’t the best year for the yellow metal. Gold lost almost 5% over the last twelve months. Although I correctly predicted that “gold’s performance in 2021 could be worse than last year”, I expected less bearish behavior. What exactly happened? From a macroeconomic perspective, the economy recovered last year. As vaccination progressed, sanitary restrictions were lifted, and risk appetite returned to the market, which hit safe-haven assets such as gold. What’s more, a rebound in economic activity and rising inflation prompted the Fed to taper its quantitative easing and introduce more hawkish rhetoric, which pushed gold prices down. As always, there were both ups and downs in the gold market last year. Gold started 2021 with a bang, but began plunging quickly amid Democrats’ success in elections, the Fed more optimistic about the economy, and rising interest rates. The slide lasted until late March, when gold found its bottom of $1,684. This is because inflation started to accelerate at that point, while the Fed was downplaying rising price pressures, gibbering about “transitory inflation”. The rising worries about high inflation and the perspective of the US central bank staying behind the curve helped gold reach $1,900 once again in early June. However, the hawkish FOMC meeting and dot-plot that came later that month created another powerful bearish wave in the gold market that lasted until the end of September. Renewed inflationary worries and rising inflation expectations pushed gold to $1,865 in mid-November. However, the Fed announced a tapering of its asset purchases, calming markets once again and regaining investors’ trust in its ability to control inflation. As consequence, gold declined below $1,800 once again and stayed there by the end of the year. What can we learn from gold’s performance in 2021? First of all, gold is not a perfect inflation hedge, as the chart below shows. I mean here that, yes, gold is sensitive to rising inflation, but a hawkish Fed beats inflation in the gold market. Thus, inflation is positive for gold only if the US central bank stays behind the curve. However, when investors believe that either inflation is temporary or that the Fed will turn more hawkish in response to upward price pressure, gold runs away into the corner. Royal metal, huh? Second, never underestimate the power of the dark… I mean, the hawkish side of the Fed – or simply, don’t fight the Fed. It turned out that the prospects of a very gradual asset tapering and tightening cycle were enough to intimidate gold. Third, real interest rates remain the key driver for gold prices. As one can see in the chart below, gold plunged each time bond yields rallied, in particular in February 2021, but also in June or November. Hence, gold positively reacts to inflation as long as inflation translates into lower real interest rates. However, if other factors – such as expectations of a more hawkish Fed – come into play and outweigh inflation, gold suffers. Great, we already know that 2021 sucked and why. However, will 2022 be better for the gold market? Although I have great sympathy for the gold bulls, I don’t have good news for them. It seems that gold’s struggle will continue this year, at least in the first months of 2022, as the Fed’s hiking cycle and rising bond yields would create downward pressure on gold. However, when the US central bank starts raising the federal funds rate, gold may find its bottom, as it did in December 2015, and begin to rally again. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

S&P 500 refused further downside, tech caught fire, and credit markets staged a risk-on reversal. The bond upswing is the most important element – Powell‘s testimony wasn‘t able to ignite further rise in yields at the moment.Couple that with continued energy surge, and we‘re looking at real assets being very favorably positioned here (relatively easiest gains ahead), and that has profitable consequences for oil, copper and precious metals bulls. Even cryptos like the fact that CPI didn‘t come above expectations.Stock market fate is though tied to the Treasuries and corporate bonds – keeping an eye on the tech sensitivity to both advancing and retreating yields is of paramount importance, with financials not sticking higher as a sore thumb among other S&P 500 sectors being the other.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookFresh attempt at the lows was repelled, and the bulls aren‘t looking too spooked. Market breadth hasn‘t plunged to new lows, and is being slowly improved. It looks like we‘re about to keep moving up before the bears return.Credit MarketsHYG reversal looks credible, even if the volume was lower. It‘s risk on as HYG outperformed – the next question is how would it fare when yields rise again.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver position is improving, and I like it that miners keep coming alive. As written yesterday, the stage is set for upswing continuation till we break out of the very long consolidation.Crude OilCrude oil is performing just right – breaking higher from the prior flag-like structure, and simultaneously being inspired by the oil stocks example – $80 resistance has been decisively taken out.CopperLooking at today‘s price action, the time of copper playing catch up to the other commodities has arrived already – the bears indeed aren‘t likely to enjoy much success over the coming months.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are turning a corner, but animal spirits aren‘t there now – are cryptos more aware of the coming liquidity challenges? The rebound is lacking fervor still.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround succeeded, and markets are choosing to ignore the hawkish Fed and high inflation data. That‘s all good for commodities and then precious metals, but would catch up with stocks over time – in the sense that paper assets would underperform. For now, the S&P 500 bears have been repelled, and it would take a fresh round of higher yields forcing tech down, to knock the 500-strong index lower, which isn‘t likely to happen today. Overall, we‘re looking at still a good year in stocks (check the Latest Highlights for big picture picks), but 2H 2022 would be calmer than the prior 180 days.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The US Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy from a historically low-interest rate has slowed the US stock markets. As a result, traders quickly attempt to adjust their capital allocation levels as risk assets, technology, and US major indexes roll lower because of expected Fed Rate Hikes and other Hawkish activities.We will explore how the US Fed's comments and potential future actions may prompt significant market trends in 2022 and beyond. We'll also attempt to identify how and when the US Fed may disrupt the US markets. We know the actions of the US Fed will prompt some significant trends over the next 12 to 24 months. We know certain assets will likely rise in value as fear settles into the markets because of rising interest rates and deflating asset bubbles. It is just a matter of understanding how the speculative asset bubble of the past 8+ years and how the US Fed may move to pop these speculative bubbles soon.Asset Bubbles Everywhere, The Global Markets Continue To FrothAsset bubbles, such as those created in Cryptos, the US stock market, US Real Estate, and the art/collectible market over the past 5+ years, have visualized the US Fed's easy money results in terms of bubbles.Take a look at this chart showing the growth in certain asset classes since the start of 2019. It is incredible to think that these asset classes have rallied so far and so fast in just over 35 months: The Grayscale Bitcoin ETF rallied more than 1200%. The Technology sector rallied more than 200%. Real Estate rallied more than 85%. The S&P 500 rallied more than 94%. The US Federal Reserve's move to lower interest rates after the 2018 market collapse, which resulted in a December 24, 2018, Christmas Bottom, prompted an incredible rally phase where traders followed the US Fed in piling into assets. As long as the US Fed continued buying assets and kept interest rates near zero, global traders had no reason to fight the US Fed.(Source: StockCharts.com)Is The US Fed About To Pop The Bubble From The Stratosphere?Our research suggests the US Federal Reserve is changing its policy a little late into the game. However, it appears the US and global markets have already "rolled over" in terms of growth trends and expectations. This SPY to QQQ ratio chart highlights that the US markets entered a peaking phase in late July/August 2020 and reached an ultimate peak in February 2021.(Source: TradingView.com)S&P 500 PE Ratio Suggests Investors Are ALL-IN For The Next 90+ YearsIn other words, it appears traders have reached their ceiling in terms of what they believe the US Fed is capable of doing at this stage in the rally. For example, the PE Ratio of the US Stock market ending in 2021 ended just below 30, with a historical high for 2021 near 37. The historical mean is 15.96 – which is still relatively high for the US stock market.Remember, a PE level of 15.96 means any investor buying in at those levels would need a minimum of 15.96 years of a company handing over "every penny of revenue" to the investor (excluding all costs, payrolls, taxes, fees, and other operating expenses) to cover the PE multiple of the investment. So a PE level of 30, as we see at the end of 2021, suggests that stock price valuation levels are at least 60 to 90+ years ahead of real returns.The only thing that can change this historic level of speculation in the markets is a deleveraging/revaluation event.(Source: multpl.com)From the US Fed's Actions To How Traders Should Prepare For Shifting MarketsThis first part of our ongoing research into the US Fed's actions and where they are telegraphing their intents will continue. Part II of this article will investigate how traders should read into these shifting markets and where we're attempting to highlight what has taken place over the past 3 to 5+ years.We've managed to live through an incredible event in history. I can only think of one other time when a global superpower extended this type of credit and support for the worldwide economy. That was the Roman Empire many thousands of years ago.What we experience over the next 20 to 40+ years could be the biggest and most incredible opportunity of your lifetime. The process of deleveraging all this debt and working all this capital through the global markets over the next few decades may present one of the most incredible investment/trading opportunities anyone has ever seen in over 1500 years.Look for my Part II to this article, and we'll continue exploring the current shifts in the US and global stock and asset markets.Finding The Right Strategies That Will Help You Navigate Through Bulls & BearsIf you have struggled with finding opportunities over the past year or so and want to know which are the hottest sectors, or how to protect and grow your capital, then please take a minute to review my Total ETF Portfolio - Triple-Strategy Trading Plan to help you profit from these big market transitions.Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

The value of the cryptocurrency market rose almost 3% over the past 24 hours to 2.07 trillion. Exceeding the psychologically important circular mark pulled demand for coins outside the top 10. Separately, bitcoin enjoyed demand from the pull into risky assets in traditional financial markets and the weakening dollar. Bitcoin has fallen slightly short of the entire crypto market since the beginning of the week, pushing its share down to 40%. However, it is too early to say that a new rally in crypto has begun. The crypto market remains 30% below its peaks in early November, and capitalisation growth is uneven. Interestingly, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index lost 1 point to 21 overnight, despite increasing market cap. Yesterday's rise did not gain traction at the start of the day on Thursday. Fixing above $45K against $43.5K now would confirm the strength of the bulls. It is reasonable to talk about a rebound within the descending channel until that time. If the dollar goes back to growth in the nearest future, it will pressure stock markets. The cryptocurrency market, in these circumstances, risks reversing back to the downside, stopping the rebound and remaining in a prolonged downtrend channel. We should be wary of a smooth decline like this, as it drains optimists. We saw a similar descent in 2018 when the fall became uniformly smooth in the second half of the year, and a wide range of crypto-enthusiasts switched to standby mode until mid-2020.

  Stocks retraced some more of their recent declines on Tuesday. Will the market continue higher following today’s consumer inflation data? The S&P 500 index gained 0.92% yesterday, as it got back above the 4,700 level. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its advance following Monday’s upward reversal from the local low of 4,582.24. It was a dip-buying opportunity, however the short-term advance still looks like an upward correction within a new downtrend. The broad stock market continues to trade within an over two-month long consolidation. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index fell to its previous trading range. On Dec. 3 the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the previous record high. So it was a pretty mild downward correction or just a consolidation following last year’s advances. The nearest important resistance level is at 4,700-4,720 and the next resistance level is at around 4,750. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,650. And the important support level is now at 4,580-4,600, marked by Monday’s daily low. The S&P 500 is close to its November-December local highs again, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Apple Bounced From the $170 Price Level Last week, Apple stock broke below its two-month long upward trend line after reaching the new record high of $182.94 on Tuesday. So far, it looks like a downward correction and the nearest important support level is at $165-170, marked by the previous highs and lows. The stock trades within an over month-long consolidation of around $170-180. Is this a medium-term topping pattern? It’s getting very hard to fundamentally justify the Apple’s current market capitalization of around $3 trillion. Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% higher this morning following the Consumer Price Index release which was slightly higher than expected at +0.5% m/m. So the broad stock market will retrace more of the recent declines. However, we may see a profit taking action later in the day. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 extended its short-term uptrend yesterday. It may be still a correction within a downtrend or some further consolidation along the 4,700 level. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDCHF tests daily support The US dollar plunged after December’s CPI slowed down to 0.5% from 0.8% in November. Despite a swift recovery from the daily support at 0.9100, price action came under pressure once again at December’s supply area (0.9280). The dive below 0.9180 then 0.9140 is a sign of liquidation as buyers rush to the exit. As the greenback revisits the critical support at 0.9100, an oversold RSI may attract some buying interest. The former demand area around 0.9200 is now the first resistance level. XAUUSD looks to break out Gold edged higher as the US dollar softened across the board. The precious metal has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 1830. This level used to be a support from last November’s sell-off. The recovery above the psychological level of 1800 shows the bulls’ commitment to keeping the price afloat. A break above the supply zone would force the sell-side to cover and trigger an extended rally towards the previous peak at 1870. On the downside, 1800 has turned into a fresh support. USOIL continues upward WTI crude climbed higher after a larger-than-expected fall in US inventories. A close above the daily resistance at 79.00 was a strong bullish sign. Following a brief pause, the rally accelerated above 80.40. Sentiment remains upbeat and the bulls are keen to buy the dip during a pullback. A breach above 82.20 would clear the path to the peak at 85.00. An overbought RSI may cause a temporary retreat. In that case, trend-followers could be looking to jump in near the closest support at 81.20.

MRNA shares slump on Tuesday after a strong bounce on Monday. FXStreet had called the Monday bounce as likely to fail. Moderna needs to find a new revenue source as covid likely to fade. Moderna (MRNA) shares failed to rally on Tuesday despite Fed Chair Powell talking calmly to Capitol Hill and soothing most equities in the process. Risk was back on and rate hikes are also likely on, this time in March. Powell has carefully mapped out the strategy so as not to surprise markets, and despite yields rising slightly, tech continued to bounce on Tuesday. However, Moderna shares slumped. Moderna (MRNA) stock news Shares in Moderna closed over 5% lower at $221.39 on Tuesday. Many traders are asking why, when all major indices closed higher. Mainstream media have been trotting out the rotation line, which is a neat excuse for, "We don't really know why that happened, so let us just compare it to something else." The fact as always is to do with momentum and trends. Moderna has been falling, and this latest fall is symptomatic of waning investor interest as covid looks to fade. Moderna is hugely over-reliant on its covid vaccine for income. Yes, it has a decent pipeline, but nothing else can come close to matching the revenue generation of its covid vaccine. This is the big problem. Pfizer is much more diversified and a larger company with multiple revenue streams. Moderna (MRNA) is not in this league. It may get there one day, but in the meantime it will face revenue generation challenges. Take a look at the Moderna development pipeline here. It is impressive but nothing that looks either imminent or significant in terms of replacing covid vaccine revenue. Covid is/was a once-in-a-century event (fingers crossed). Moderna (MRNA) stock forecast There is nothing significant in Monday's move despite MRNA shares closing 9% higher. We outlined this in our article earlier in the week and remain bearish on Moderna. The trend is in place as Monday failed to break above $259, so we remain with lower lows and lower highs. $259 is the pivot for the short term. $188.41 is the first target with $200 a big psychological level along the way. There is a pattern here: declining Relative Strength Index (RSI), declining Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and declining stock price. We have a volume gap from $200 until $180. There is more downside in our view unless MRNA shares close above $259. Moderna (MRNA) chart, daily

S&P 500 sold off only a little in the wake of CPI data – probably celebrating that the figure wasn‘t 8% but only 7%. As if that weren‘t uncomfortable already – and the Fed wants to field accelerated taper, and perhaps even four quarter-point rate hikes to tame it? Oh, and perhaps also balance sheet reduction through not reinvesting proceeds from matured bonds and notes as talked on Monday – sure, that will do the trick. Looking at Treasuries over the prior two days shows that the Fed isn‘t being questioned. Value defends the high ground while tech rallies – Monday‘s fear with its brief return Tuesday, is in the rear-view mirror, compacency returning, and VIX again below 18. Prior upswing consolidation right next, is the most likely action for S&P 500. The real gains though are being made elsewhere – in crude oil and copper. With commodities back on fire, these two have certainly greater appreciation potential next than stocks or cryptos – so, long live our open longs there! The red metal has defied base metals intraday consolidation yesterday, and that has consequences for inflation trades – silver is waiting in the wings. To give you an idea how mispriced the risk of persistently unpleasant inflation is, yesterday‘s CPI coming only in line with expectations, caused inflation expectations to decline… At least the dollar took a rightful breather – its prior sideways consolidation has been broken to the downside. Currencies are starting to figure out inflation, and just how far and inadequate Fed‘s promise to take on it, has been... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Daily consolidation of prior strong gains that‘s likely to go on today – stocks are making up their mind as to where next in the very short run now that the bears had been repelled. Credit Markets HYG is likewise looking to need some time to move higher next – volume is declining, and a brief sideways move is most likely now. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are still sideways to up – not down. The pressure to go higher is building up, waiting for the Fed miscalculation, or perception of the consequencies of its upcoming action. The faith in the central bank isn‘t yet really shaken. Crude Oil Crude oil finds it easiest to keep rising – the technical and fundamental conditions are in place, and oil stocks will continue to be the leading S&P 500 performers. Copper Copper is starting to play catch up to the other commodities finally – it‘ll be a rocky ride, but the red metal has waken up, and cast a clear verdict on inflation that has to seep into other markets next. Will take time, but we‘ll get there. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum didn‘t convince on the upside, and with no dovish surprise on the horizon, the path of least resistance probably remains down for now. Summary S&P 500 turnaround is getting cemented, and worries about the hawkish Fed or inflation look to be momentarily receding. Not even the PPI is waking up the markets – the focus seems to be on measly 0.1% undershoot. Ironic, pathetic. While stocks keep on moving in a tight range, and still want to keep on appreciating modestly, the real action is happening in the commodities, to be followed by precious metals. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  “It’s my party and I’ll fall if I want to”, sang gold and kept its word. Although the dollar weakened, gold seemed reluctant to take advantage of it. Now that was a big decline in the USD Index! What made gold yawn and why is it declining today? Because it doesn’t want to rally. I’ve been writing this over and over again, and yet I’ll write it once more. Markets don’t move in a straight line up or down, and periodic corrections are natural. However, the way markets interact during those corrections tells us a lot about what’s likely to take place next, at least in the case of some markets. The USD Index declined quite visibly yesterday and in today’s overnight trading. The key questions are: so what, and if that was completely unexpected. Starting with the latter, it wasn’t unexpected. It’s something in tune with gold’s long-term chart. When the weekly RSI (based on the weekly price changes) for the USD Index hit 70, I wrote the following: Also, please note that the recent medium-term rally has been calmer than any major upswing witnessed over the last 20 years, where the USD Index’s RSI has hit 70. I marked the recent rally in the RSI with an orange rectangle, and I did the same with the second-least and third-least volatile of the medium-term upswings. The sharp rallies in 2008 and 2014 were of much larger magnitudes. And in those historical analogies, the USD Index continued its surge for some time without suffering any material corrections. As a result, the short-term outlook is more of a coin flip. Consequently, the current decline is not unexpected, it’s rather normal. I marked additional situations on the above chart with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. I marked those declines in the RSI with blue rectangles, and I did the same thing for the current decline. As you can see, the size of the move lower is currently analogous to previous short-term corrections that were then followed by higher prices. This means that it’s quite likely over or very close to being over, and the medium-term rally can return any day now. Moving back to USD’s short-term chart, we see that the USD Index just (in overnight trading, so the move is not even close to being confirmed) moved a little below USDX’s rising support line based on the previous June and October 2021 lows. At the same time, the USDX is slightly below its late-2020 top and slightly above its November 2021 top. In light of the situation on the long-term USDX chart (as discussed above), this combination of support levels is likely to trigger a rebound and the continuation of the medium-term rally. At the beginning of 2021, I wrote that the year was likely to be bullish for the USD Index, and my forecast for gold (and the rest of the precious metals sector) was bullish – against that of almost every one of my colleagues. The USD Index ended 2021 about 6% higher, gold was down about 3.5%, silver was down almost 12%, the GDX ETF was down by about 9.5%, and the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior mining stocks, my primary tool for shorting the precious metals sector in 2021 – I wasn’t shorting gold at any point in 2021) was down by about 21%. What about this year? It’s a tough call to say how the entire year will go, but it seems to me that the USD Index will move higher, and we’ll see both in the PMs: a massive decline, and then a huge rally. It’s very likely to be a year to remember for anyone interested in trading gold, silver, and/or mining stocks and/or investing in them. Let’s get back to the current situation. The USD Index declined to fresh 2022 lows – well below the previous January lows, and also below the December and late-November lows. How did gold respond? Gold rallied – but just by a mere $8.80. While gold got close to its early-January high, it didn’t manage to move above it. 2022 is still a down year for gold. Also, gold is clearly below its November 2021 highs, when it was trading close to $1,900. Is gold showing strength here? Absolutely not. Gold is showing the opposite of strength. It’s weak and unwilling to react to the USD’s weakness. That’s exactly what I want to see as a bearish indication if I plan on entering a short position in the precious metals sector or when I’m timing an exit of a long position, or as a confirmation of a bearish narrative in general. So, yes, of course I want to say that yesterday’s rally in gold was a bearish development. That’s the case, because gold should have rallied so much more, given what happened in the USD Index. Today’s overnight action makes the bearish case even clearer. The USDX is down a bit, but gold is down too, anyway. It simply doesn’t want to rally. Gold wants to decline instead. Mining stocks and silver behaved similarly to gold yesterday – they didn’t move to, let alone above, their previous 2022 highs. Consequently, they confirm the indications for the gold vs. USD dynamic – they don’t point to something else. Summing up, the outlook for silver, gold, and mining remains bearish for the medium term, and this week’s rally seems to be nothing more than a counter-trend breather. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

GameStop stock continues to edge lower with little momentum. GME shares slide to $128, nearly 2% lower on Wednesday. GME stock is down 30% over the last three months and 13% this year. GameStop (GME) is reaching a key juncture. Now that the Fed has seemingly performed its magic act of raising rates and keeping markets happy, it is time to see if meme stocks can benefit from a more risk-on tone in equities. Meme stocks are all about momentum, not valuation, and there have been worrying signs for the last quarter. Small lot trades have been decreasing, and these are often used as an indicator of retail activity. Call option volumes have also decreased, another meme stock feature used widely by retail traders. Finally, the economy is nearly fully open, and the Omicron variant is milder. Will meme stocks ever recapture their preeminence of this time last year when they ruled the airwaves? GameStop (GME) was the number one topic on CNBC, and every other major financial news outlet. This year, so far, it barely warrants a mention. Momentum is worrying, and that is all meme stocks have to support them. GameStop (GME) stock news Today, January 13, marks the exact one-year anniversary of the first huge pop in the GME stock price. On January 13, 2021, GME stock spiked 57%, having been near 100% intraday, and set in motion the saga as we know it. That took GME shares from $20 to nearly $40 before closing back at $31.40. Many of us, myself included, thought this was madness when we took a close look at the company. Now if you got the chance to buy stock in GME at $40, you would jump at it. This is an example of how price alters the perception of value and why retailers have constant sales. Technically, the double top has been the problem here. GME put in a double top on November and December last year that has played out perfectly. The slide though has continued past the target. $118 is now key, and breaking below sees volume dry up and a likely move to $70. Breaking $160 to $167 is needed to change the view to a more bullish stance in our opinion. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

US 100 revisits major support The Nasdaq 100 faltered after an unexpected rise in US initial jobless claims. The tech index bounced off the demand zone around 15200 which used to be a resistance on the daily chart. A bullish divergence revealed a slowdown in the sell-off momentum. The latest break above 15820 prompted some sellers to cover but came under pressure at 15980. After intraday traders took profit, 15200 is a critical support to keep the rebound relevant. A deeper correction would send the price to 14900. EURGBP stuck in bearish trend The euro rose after ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the inflation spike may last longer than projected. Nonetheless, the bearish sentiment still prevails after the pair failed to hold on to 0.8370. The former support has now turned into a resistance. The current consolidation could be a distribution phase and a drop below 0.8325 could send the price to February 2020’s lows near 0.8290. On the upside, the bulls have the challenging task of lifting offers around 0.8370 and then 0.8415 before they could attract more followers. XAGUSD tests major resistance Silver extends its recovery on the back of a weak US dollar. The metal saw support at the psychological level of 22.00. A break above the resistance at 22.80 and then an acceleration to the upside indicates strong buying interest. An overbought RSI has temporarily held the rally back. The bulls are testing the daily resistance at 23.40. A breakout could shake sellers out and trigger a reversal above 24.00. On the downside, buyers could be lurking around 22.60 in case of a pullback.

The US Federal Reserve has recently taken steps to communicate a change in future policy – suggesting raising interest rates and acting more aggressively to combat inflation. Throughout the last few weeks of 2021 and early 2022, these comments and posturing by the US Fed have created some very big downside price moves in the US major indexes. As a result, the US markets' volatility levels (VIX) have moved to a recent average between 17~21 – nearly 3x historical normal levels.US Fed Likely To Move Very Slowly On RatesOne thing that I believe has become evident to many people is that we have moved past the COVID stimulus conversations of the past 24+ months. Inflation, rising prices, constricted supply-chains, and an excess of capital throughout many global markets appear to have shifted how the US Fed interprets future risks. The Fed is telegraphing these concerns to investors very clearly right now, which means traders/investors are shifting their focus away from high-flying Growth stocks.Even though traders are attempting to shift capital away from certain risky sectors in the US and global markets, I still believe we have about 60 to 120+ days before the bigger market shift takes place.The US Federal Reserve will likely start addressing inflationary concerns by reducing their balance sheet assets – not by aggressively raising interest rates. I feel the US Fed will navigate Q1:2022 and Q2:2022 by reducing balance sheet assets while allowing the global supply-chain issues to attempt to resolve themselves. By June/July 2022, or later, I believe the Fed may start to consider rate increases as a means to slow inflation.Fed Comments Shift Investor Sentiment – Metals In Focus For Later 2022This move away from Dovish/easy-money policies will push traders to consider more traditional hedge investments – like Gold and Silver. I'm sure you've read some comments over the past 24+ months about Gold being an extremely undervalued asset as the US Fed poured trillions of stimulus dollars into the economy? These comments were made concerning the fact that Gold rallied from $1450 in 2019 to almost $2100 in 2020 – over 12 months (over +43%). Could a big move in Gold/Silver happen again in 2022 or 2023?My research suggests a Double Pennant/Flag formation in Gold suggests the $1675 support level becomes critical soon. It also indicates a Breakout/Breakdown move may start to happen before March or April 2022 – near the APEX of the current Pennant/Flag formation.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The key APEX range is currently between $1785 and $1830. This represents a very tight price range where Gold may attempt to consolidate as we move towards the March/April Apex. My research suggests a move to levels near $1740 to $1750 may happen just before the Apex Breakout/Breakdown initiates. So, watch for a bit of downside price volatility in Gold before the end of February 2022.Junior Gold Miners May Rally +45%, Or More, On A Gold Price RallyThe Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) Weekly Chart shows a firm support level near $37.35 that should act as a floor for price. My research suggests the next 45+ days will see GDXJ prices stay below $44 to $45 – trading in a reasonably tight range before starting to rally higher near the end of February 2022.I believe Metals and Miners are aligning for a late February 2022 or Q2:2022 rally. The reason is that I believe the positioning by the US Fed, and expectations related to later 2022 (a mid-term election year), may prompt quite a bit of concern for the US and global equities. This will likely push investors and traders into “old-school” hedge instruments – like Gold and Silver.That means Junior Gold and Silver Miners maybe about 55+ days away from an explosive upside price trend.SILJ May Rally +70% to +100%, Or More, On Fed ActionsNear the end of 2022, I published a research article highlighting the incredible opportunity in Silver – focusing on how the Gold/Silver ratio had recently reached another peak level and had started to decline: Fear May Drive Silver More Than 60% Higher In 2022. This move suggests the disparity between the price of Gold to the price of Silver shows Gold is appreciated (and holding greater value) than Silver over the past few years.The COVID virus event, and the subsequent Fed/Government stimulus, shifted investors/traders focus away from precious metals and into the equities market speculative rally. Now that the US Fed is starting to warn of more aggressive rate increases and other actions, precious metals are suddenly much more important as a hedge against future risks.This SILJ Weekly Chart highlights the incredible base level, near $12, that continues to offer traders a fantastic hedge against a sudden Fed move. Using a simple Fibonacci Price Extension, we can see a $20 target level (+61%) and a $25.64 target level (100%). If the $12 level holds as a base/support, SILJ may be one of the easiest and best hedges against a sudden Fed move right now.The US Federal Reserve is, in my opinion, playing with fireThe COVID Virus Event pushed global debt levels higher by more than $19.5 Trillion Dollars (Source: Bloomberg ). The rush to attempt to save the global economy has created a massive surge in global debt levels – pushing the global debt to GDP level to well above 356% (Source: Axios).Why is this so important right now? Because the US Federal Reserve is talking about an attempt to move interest rates and Fed decision-making back to near-normal levels. In my opinion, this was the one fault of Alan Greenspan in 2006-07. The thought that we can raise rates to “near normal level” at any time when we have grown debt levels excessively throughout the world is failed thinking and ignorant, in my opinion.The US Federal Reserve is trapped and almost backed into a corner. I believe the US Fed will find any rate increases above 1.00 before the end of 2023 will significantly disrupt the global speculative bubble. Any attempt to move rates to levels near or above 2.00 would represent a nearly +2000% rate increase in less than 12 to 24 months. If you want to see a shock to the global markets where global debt to GDP is closing in on 400%, try raising the FFR by more than 2000% over a short period of time. That is what I call “playing with FIRE.”.(Source: Axios)2022 and 2023 will be filled with significant market trends and increased volatility. Right now, traders and investors need to understand the global markets are attempting to quickly transition away from a speculative/growth phase as the US Federal Reserve attempts to telegraph future rate increases. So it's time to start thinking about how to prepare for unknowns and how to protect your capital more efficiently.Growth sectors and US major indexes may continue to move higher for the next 30 to 60+ days, but my research suggests Q2:2022 may represent a "change in thinking" related to a late-2022 Fed shift. We are starting to see the markets move away from the speculative bubble-type trending we saw in 2020 and early 2021. Keep your eyes open and learn how to prepare for the big trends over the next 3+ years. The Fed is playing with fire right now. One wrong move and the markets could start a drastic price correction/reversion.Finding The Right Trading StrategiesIf you have struggled with finding opportunities over the past year or so and want to know which are the hottest sectors, or how to protect and grow your capital, then please take a minute to review my Total ETF Portfolio – Triple-Strategy Trading Plan to help you profit from these big market transitions.Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

  Inflation! The Republic is crumbling under attacks by the ruthless Supply Lord, Count Shortage. Dearness is everywhere. Will gold save the galaxy? If George Lucas were to make a movie about 2021 instead of Jedi knights, he would probably call it Revenge of the Supply. After all, last year will be remembered as the period of semiconductor shortages, production bottlenecks, disrupted value chains, delayed deliveries, surging job vacancies, rising inflation, and skyrocketing energy prices. It could be a shocking discovery for Keynesian economists, who focus on aggregate demand and believe that there is always slack in the economy, but it turned out that supply matters too! As a reminder, state governments couldn’t deal with the pandemic more smartly and introduced lockdowns. Then, it turned out – what a surprise! – that the shutdown of the economy, well, shut down the economy, so the Fed and the banking system boosted the money supply, while Congress passed a mammoth fiscal stimulus, including sending checks to just about every American. In other words, 2021 showed us that one cannot close and reopen the economy without any negative consequences, as the economy doesn’t simply return to the status quo. After the reopening of the economy, people started to spend all the money that was “printed” and given to them. Hence, demand increased sharply, and supply couldn’t keep up with the boosted spending. It turned out that economic problems are not always related to the demand side that has to be “stimulated”. We’ve also learned that there are supply constraints and that production and delivery don’t always go smoothly. The contemporary economy is truly global, complex, and interconnected – and the proper working of this mechanism depends on the adequate functioning of its zillion elements. Thus, shit happens from time to time. This is why it’s smart to have some gold as a portfolio insurance against tail risks. Evergiven, the ship that blocked the Suez Canal, disrupting international trade, was the perfect illustration. However, the importance of supply factors goes beyond logistics and is related to regulations, taxes, incentives, etc. Instead of calls for injecting liquidity during each crisis, efficiency, reducing the disincentives to work and invest, and unlocking the supply shackles imposed by the government should become the top economic priority. Another negative surprise for mainstream economists in 2021 was the revenge of inflation. For years, central bankers and analysts have dismissed the threat of inflation, considering it a phenomenon of the past. In the 1970s, the Fed was still learning how to conduct monetary policy. It made a few mistakes, but is much smarter today, so stagflation won’t repeat. Additionally, we live in a globalized economy with strong product competition and weak labor unions, so inflation won’t get out of control. Indeed, inflation was stubbornly low for years, despite all the easy monetary policy, and didn’t want to reach the Fed’s target of 2%, so the US central bank changed its regime to be more flexible and tolerant of inflation. It was in 2020, just one year before the outbreak of inflation. The Fed completely didn’t expect that – which shows the intellectual poverty of this institution – and called it “transitory”. Initially, inflation was supposed to be short-lived because of the “base effects”, then because of the “supply bottlenecks”. Only in November, the Fed admitted that inflation was more broad-based and would be more persistent than it previously thought. Well, better late than never! What does the revenge of supply and inflation imply for the gold market? One could expect that gold would perform better last year amid all the supply problems and a surge in inflation. We’ve learned that gold doesn’t always shine during inflationary times. The reason was that supply shortages didn’t translate into a full-blown economic crisis. On the contrary, they were caused by a strong rebound in demand; and they contributed mainly to higher inflation, which strengthened the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and expectations of higher interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. On the other hand, we could say as well that gold prices were supported by elevated inflation and didn’t drop more thanks to all the supply disruptions and inflationary threats. After all, during the economic expansion of 2011-2015 that followed the Great Recession, gold plunged about 45%, while between the 2020 peak and the end of 2021, the yellow metal lost only about 13%, as the chart below shows. Hence, the worst might be yet to come. I don’t expect a similarly deep decline as in the past, especially given that the Fed’s tightening cycle seems to be mostly priced in, but the real interest rates could normalize somewhat. Thus, I have bad news for the gold bulls. The supply crunch is expected to moderate in the second half of 2022, which would also ease inflationary pressure. To be clear, inflation won’t disappear, but it may reach a peak this year. The combination of improvement on the supply side of the economy, with inflation reaching its peak, and with a more hawkish Fed doesn’t bode well for gold. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

  Powell testified before the Senate. He didn’t say anything new, but gold rallied a bit. “We have totally screwed up inflation and now we are in deep trouble,” admitted Jerome Powell during his appearance before the Senate. OK, he didn’t formulate it exactly that way, but it was the message of his testimony. Powell admitted that the Fed wrongly expected a faster easing of supply disruptions and thought that price pressures would be much lower by now. As a consequence, inflation was believed to be only ‘transitory’. Unfortunately, that’s not what happened. “The supply-side constraints have been very durable. We are not seeing the kind of progress that all forecasters thought we’d be seeing by now. We did foresee a strong spike in demand. We didn’t know it would be so focused on goods,” saidPowell. As a result of the Fed’s inaction, inflation has risen 7% in 2021, the fastest pace since February 1982, as the chart below shows. After conducting very complicated calculations, Powell admitted that “inflation is running very far above target.” Bold deduction, Sherlock! Such high inflation is indeed a troublesome and even central bankers realize that. This is why Powell stated that “the economy no longer needs or wants the very accommodative policies we have had in place,” and that “we will use our tools to support the economy and a strong labor market and to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.” However, there is a problem here. The main tool the Fed has to fight inflation is raising the federal funds rate, but hiking interest rates may hamper economic expansion and even trigger the next financial crisis. As Powell admitted, “if inflation does become too persistent, that will lead to much tighter monetary policy and that could lead to a recession.” Thus, the central bank is between a rock and a hard place, between high inflation and the risk of slowing economic expansion or even of an economic crisis.   Implications for Gold What does Powell’s testimony imply for the gold market? Well, theoretically not much, as it didn’t include any major surprises. However, Powell sounded quite hawkish. For example, he downplayed the economic consequences of the current surge in coronavirus cases, and said that it’s likely not changing the Fed’s plans to tighten its monetary policy this year. These plans are relatively bold for this year: “We are going to end asset purchases in March. We will raise rates. And at some point this year will let the balance sheet runoff,” Powell said. However, it seems that Powell sounded less hawkish than investors were afraid of. Given such worries, the lack of any surprises could be dovish. This is at least what gold’s performance suggests. As the chart below shows, Powell’s testimony triggered a small rally and revived optimism in the gold market. That’s for sure encouraging. After all, gold jumped above a key level of $1,800, catching some breath, but it’s too early to call a major reversal in the gold market. The yellow metal would have to sustain itself above $1,820 and then surpass $1,850, or even higher levels, to trumpet a bullish breakout. There are still several headwinds for gold. First of all, the monetary hawks haven’t struck yet. They are growing in strength, as several regional bank presidents have recently called for a rate hike as soon as in March. Such calls may strengthen the expectations of rate increases, boosting bond yields, and creating downward pressure for gold prices. We’ll find out soon whether it will happen or not, as the January FOMC meeting is in two weeks, and it could be a groundbreaking event in the gold market. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  Gas prices surged in stride and then the market plunged back down like a yoyo thrown from a balcony. What caused such a reaction? At the beginning of the week, Henry Hub natural gas futures closed above the $4 psychological mark on the NYMEX for the first time this new year as a result of robust US LNG exports and weather-driven demand. Overall, the prices on the February contract were still trading on a longer-term downtrend, which is why I was especially looking for the best spot to initiate a short-selling trade rather than jumping on a galloping horse. Meanwhile, some of our subscribers – always free to scalp the market (or to take more aggressive counter-trend trades towards our suggested entries) – were just getting ready to go short around the $4.876.5.079 resistance zone (highlighted by a yellow band), with a stop placed just above the higher $5.400 level (represented by a red dotted line) and targets at $4.568 and $4.213 (also marked by two green dotted lines), according to my last projections. As a result, gas prices indeed surged in stride (performing a high-speed rally up to the 4.879 that got almost immediately stopped by the yellow band – thus triggering our entry). It was just before the market plunged back down like a yoyo thrown from the third floor and wheeling on the first-floor balcony, considering our targets to be located on both the second and first floors. This sudden reversal move was certainly triggered on the one hand, technically by aggressive traders taking profits, but also , more fundamentally, by a slowdown in gas demand as the purchases for colder weeks were already anticipated by the commercials (large MNCs hedging their risk, oil and gas majors, utility companies, etc.); the latter having undoubtedly more impact and weight than we, or larger speculators, on those markets. Thus, I would say the key is trying to think like them to get some understanding of trading energies. Trading Charts Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the above mentioned levels of our trade plan: Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, 4H chart) In summary, my trading approach has led me to suggest some short trades around potential key resistances since this sudden surge in natural gas offered a great opportunity for the bears to enter short whilst aiming towards specific projected targets. Some of you – more aggressive traders – may also enjoy jumping on galloping horses. However, for such trades, the timeframe would be much shorter and difficult to make everyone take advantage of them, due to the volatility in the markets and the fact that I always try to provide trades with optimal entry levels meeting a profitable risk-to-reward ratio. You are always free – at your own risk and time schedule – to scalp the markets in a more aggressive way (counter-trend trading) towards a projected entry area if you feel comfortable doing so. However, sometimes, the “FOMO” (Fear-Of-Missing-Out) voices might tell you to trade when you shouldn’t, so just be aware that over-trading could also lead you to take more risky positions – refraining from trading all the time is also part of trading – a mind game that you will have to rapidly master! If you don’t want to miss any future trading alerts, make sure to look at our Premium section. Stay tuned – have a nice weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has been cruising between 21-23 for the past seven days - in the extreme fear territory, finding itself in the middle of that range on Monday. Meanwhile, the value of all coins tracked by CoinMarketCap fell 0.5% in the last 24 hours to $2.05 trillion. By and large, a sideways range, $2.0-$2.1 trillion, has also been prevalent here for the past seven days, marking a lull in bull and bear fighting. It remains to be seen whether this signifies fatigue from the past months' turbulent moves or preparations for a new strong momentum. The local victory is on the bears' side, dominating the top coins now, where losses range from -0.8% for Bitcoin to -5.7% for Polkadot over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin failed to build on last week's upside momentum and is back in the $41-42K consolidation area, approaching it from above. A decline from these levels in the coming days will be a development of the downtrend since November, reversing the BTCUSD from the upper boundary of the downtrend channel. A bearish scenario suggests a dip towards $31K by the end of this week to close the July gap. But the door for such a decline will only open after the bulls surrender the $40K level they managed to hold in September and earlier in January. Ether has also encountered a sell-off in its attempts to rise above $3.3K. The 200-day moving average level is now acting as significant resistance. Bitcoin and Ether, which have a combined capitalisation of almost 60% of all cryptocurrencies, show worryingly negative dynamics. At the same time, their share has been declining since late last year. We are seeing either a shift in investor attitudes towards the sector leaders or certain inertia of altcoins compared to the flagships. Right now, it seems that crypto enthusiasts are not at all opposed to the changing landscape. However, as is often the case in nature, such changes rarely go smoothly.      

Sandbox investors are not returning to the scene as bulls refrain from erasing Thursday’s fade SAND price action enters a squeeze with bulls being pushed against the $4.72 level and stopped out on a break below. Expect a possible dip further to the downside if no help comes from global markets. The Sandbox (SAND) looked to be starting an uptrend after the perfect technical bounce off the monthly S1 support level at $4.19. Instead, the rally was short-lived and underwent a fade yesterday with investors reluctant to pick price up off the floor of the $4.72 historical level. If global markets don’t rally today, expect a dip to the downside with bulls getting stopped out and a nosedive back towards $4.19. Pressure is mounting with bulls cut short and pushed back at the entry This week, the Sandbox was on the same page as most other cryptocurrencies, having found support and delivered promising signs of a new rally that could set the tone for 2022. But instead, markets and participants are having issues reading between the lines on central bank tightening from the FED – and what that means for equity investments and portfolio rebalancing. With that, cryptocurrencies took a step back yesterday, and SAND failed to pare back yesterday’s incurred losses. SAND bulls look to have fled the scene as bears push price-action back down against the $4.72 level that holds some historical importance in SAND’s brief existence. A break below would trigger another sharp sell-off as stops run, and sell volume gets enlarged. A test or break below the monthly S1 at $4.19 could then follow.. SAND/USD daily chart Although European equities are red, US futures are mildly green, so sentiment could quickly shift once the US cash trading session starts. This will see a bounce off the historical level and a swing to the upside, touching the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $5.60 or the monthly pivot just above. That would preposition SAND bulls for an attack on the red descending trend line in the week to come.

S&P 500 didn‘t like latest weak data releases, but finished well off intraday lows. This reversal though leaves quite something to be desired – and it‘s sectoral composition doesn‘t pass the smell test entirely either. Yields continued to rise while HYG barely closed where it opened – that‘s not really risk-on. Cyclicals, and riskier parts of tech weren‘t visibly outperforming – the S&P 500 rally felt like a defensive bounce off some oversold levels. That‘s why it won‘t likely hold for long – I don‘t think we have seen the end of selling – more downside awaits. It‘s still correction time, even if 2022 is likely to end up around 5,150 – we‘re still in a bull market, and Big Tech would do well. For now though, rising yields are putting pressure – and they would continue to rise. As liquidity would no longer be added by the Fed by Mar, the question remains how much would funds coming out of the repo facilities and the overnight account at the Fed (think $2t basically) offset the intended tightening. Commodities aren‘t at all shaken, and Wednesday‘s positive copper move doesn‘t look to be an outlier – unlike Friday‘s decline that didn‘t correspond with other base metals. Even though it might be soothing to the pension funds, inflation rates aren‘t likely to come down to the usual massaged 2% during the next 2-3 years, no matter whether the Fed hikes by 0.25% 6 or 8 times. The persistently and unpleasantly 4-5% high CPI is likely to break the mainstream narrative, and stay with us for much longer than generally anticipated, which is only part of the reason why I am looking for gold to leave $1,870s very convincingly in the dust this year. Both yellow and black gold would rise in tandem, and the rising open crude oil profits (heavy long positions opened at $78) are part of the reason behind permanently elevated inflation ahead. The commodities upswing is also no longer tempered by the rising dollar. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The tech reversal could carry the daily weight of S&P 500 upswing – the daily weight only. I‘m not looking for this modest show of strength to hold. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t close strongly either – rising yields are taking their toll, and will continue doing so. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver downswing needn‘t be feared – while the metals are still sideways, the pressure to go up is building, and the dollar woes would be but the first catalyst (challenged faith in the Fed taming inflation would be next). Crude Oil Crude oil still finds it easiest to keep rising, and black gold could pause a little on the approach to $90 – the technical and fundamental upswing conditions are in place, and oil stocks will continue to be among the best S&P 500 performers. Copper Copper catch up was postponed a little – that‘s all. The decline wasn‘t a true reversal, and the red metal would take on $4.60 before too long again. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum still can‘t convince on the upside, and with no dovish surprise on the horizon, the path of least resistance probably remains down for now – today‘s session definitely confirms that. Summary S&P 500 upswing isn‘t to be trusted, and its defensive nature out of tune with bonds, is part of the reason why. The stock market correction has further to go, and while tech overall would do well in 2022, it has to decline first – that would set the stage for a good 2H advance. The early phase of the Fed tightening cycle belongs to the bears, and it would continue to be commodities and precious metals to weather the storms best. Long live the inflation trades. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCHF attempts to rebound The US dollar came under pressure after a contraction in December’s US retail sales. Strong selling pressure from the supply area around 0.9280 has pushed the pair all the way below the daily support at 0.9100. An oversold RSI triggered a buying-the-dips behavior but the rebound could be limited as sentiment tilted to the bearish side. The bulls will need to reclaim the support-turned-resistance at 0.9190 first. Otherwise, a new round of sell-off below 0.9090 could send the greenback to last August lows near 0.9020. NZDUSD seeks post-rally support The New Zealand dollar fell as risk sentiment subsided going into the weekend. The surge above the supply zone around 0.6850 has triggered a reversal fever after a month-long sideways action. As the RSI drops back into the neutrality area, buyers could be waiting to jump in at a discount. A pullback below 0.6840 has led to some profit-taking but as long as the price stays above 0.6780 the rebound is valid, or the kiwi could revisit the critical floor at 0.6700. A break above the recent high at 0.6890 would extend the rally to 0.6960. UK 100 consolidates gains The FTSE 100 finds support from the UK’s stronger-than-expected GDP. A break above the top of the previous consolidation range (7545) means a continuation of the current uptrend. Trend-followers may consider a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. Short-term sentiment remains bullish as long as the index is above 7470. A break above the immediate resistance at 7580 would extend the rally upward. A deeper retracement would test 7370 which used to be a major resistance from the double top on the daily chart.

Tesla gains on Friday as Nasdaq finished in the green. TSLA stock closes at $1049.61 for a gain of 1.75%. Tesla shares are still in a downtrend but holding above the key pivot. Tesla (TSLA) returned to the green on Friday as the NASDAQ took the crown for best performing index, while the Dow suffered a bank burnout. Bank stocks reported on Friday in the form of Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), and the results were decidedly mixed. Citigroup and JPMorgan fell heavily and dragged the Dow down with them. Yields though remained under control, allowing the Nasdaq to breathe lighter and make some headway after recent losses. This helped Tesla back into the green, but the stock remains choppy and sideways in motion. Tesla Stock News The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that a Tesla lawyer asked Cooley LLP, an international law firm, to fire one of its lawyers who had previously worked at the US SEC. The lawyer in question had supposedly interviewed Elon Musk in the SEC investigation in 2018 into Musk after he claimed on Twitter that he had gotten funding in place to take Tesla private. The SEC investigation led to Elon Musk and Tesla each paying $20 million fines. According to the WSJ article, a Tesla lawyer asked Cooley LLP to fire the attorney late last year, but Cooley did not follow through on the request. Tesla has used alternative law firms on several cases since December. Tesla and Cooley LLP have not yet responded to CNBC requests for comment. This may add to pressure on the stock despite Friday's rebound. Earlier in the week, investors and Cybertruck fans were left disappointed with a further delay to the truck's production timeline release, which has now been pushed to 2023. Tesla Stock Forecast Irrespective of the news, we have an indecisive chart here. TSLA stock's most recent high was a lower one than the previous and has put in a series of lower lows. This means it is currently in a short-term downtrend. $980 is the key pivot that will signify more losses. Breaking $980 makes the target $886. Holding above $980, and the target is $1,200. However, we have a declining Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). The MACD has also crossed into negative territory. Tesla chart, daily

Bitcoin price rejuvenates its uptrend as it bounces off a 4-hour demand zone, extending from $41,843 to $42,707. Ethereum price produces a higher high, signaling a continuation of its uptrend. Ripple price revisits the demand zone, ranging from $0.694 to $0.753, as bulls fail to kick-start a rally. Bitcoin price reveals a bullish outlook albeit a slow one, providing altcoins with an opportunity to run free. The past week is a testament to the recent gains witnessed among many altcoins. While Ethereum continues to remain bullish, Ripple struggles to hold on. Bitcoin price pushes forward Bitcoin price produced a lower low after the January 13 swing high at $44,439 but managed to set a higher low, keeping the uptrend somewhat intact. As BTC bounces off a 4-hour demand zone, extending from $41,843 to $42,707, investors can expect the pioneer crypto to make a run for the previous week’s high at $47,609. This hurdle is present below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) At $48,590. BTC’s upside potential, though, at least in the short-term, seems to be capped at the aforementioned level. BTC/USD 4-hour chart If Bitcoin price fails to see a bullish reaction off of the $41,843 to $42,707 demand zone, it will indicate weakness among buyers. This lack of interest could allow bears to take control and push BTC down to $41,762 – a four-hour candlestick close below there will then invalidate the bullish thesis. This development could lead Bitcoin price lower, to retest the $39,87 support level. Ethereum price shows strength Ethereum price is in a similar situation to Bitcoin as it produced a higher low but failed to set up a higher high. As long as BTC remains bullish, ETH will follow suit. Market participants can, therefore, expect the smart contract token to make a run for the 200-day SMA at $3,475. Clearing this hurdle will open the path for Ethereum price to revisit the daily supply zone, extending from $3,675 to $3,846. The upper limit of this hurdle coincides with the 50-day SMA, indicating that a further uptrend is unlikely. ETH/USD 4-hour chart Regardless of the optimistic scenario, Ethereum price needs to hold above the weekly support level at $3,061 to see a meaningful uptrend. A breakdown of this foothold will remove confidence and instill doubt among buyers. A four-hour candlestick close below the demand zone’s lower limit at $2,927, however, will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. Ethereum price finds stable support as ETH targets $4,000 Ripple price lacks motivation Ripple price has been teetering on a daily demand zone, stretching from $0.693 to $0.753 since the December 4, 2021 crash. One can assume that this barrier has been weakening. Due to its correlation with BTC, however, XRP price is likely to rally 12% to retest the 50-day SMA at $0.844. The weakened demand zone could face destruction by a short-term bearish momentum, however, so investors should exercise caution with the remittance token. In some cases, Ripple price could overcome the immediate hurdle and make a run for the 200-day SMA at $0.954. XRP/USD 1-day chart On the other hand, if Ripple price produces a daily candlestick close below $0.693, it will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis. This development could trigger a crash, where XRP price could revisit the $0.604 support level. XRP price looks bullish, targets $1

CD PROJEKT RED announces that the annual Winter Event has started in GWENT: The Witcher Card Game, with festive rewards and offers up for grabs for all players. GWENT's Winter Event is live right now and will end on January 11th at noon, CET. During this time players will be earning a special in-game resource called Pine Cones, acquired for logging in every day, completing daily quests, as well as winning matches in Standard, Seasonal, and Draft game modes. Once obtained, Pine Cones can then be exchanged for a swathe of themed vanities, including cardbacks, avatars and borders, titles — as well as both a leader and a coin skin! — via a dedicated page in the in-game Reward Book. Watch the Winter Event Trailer Additionally, owners of the Geralt leader skin will be able to take on two special contracts during the event, awarding those who complete them with the equippable Red Hat and Candy Sword trinkets for Geralt. Furthermore, for a limited time players can claim a Geralt-leader-skin-exclusive sword inspired by Netflix's The Witcher series — available for free to all until January 13th, in celebration of the second season's release.The holiday spirit has also spilled into the in-game store, where Shupe the Troll is currently hosting a special sale featuring the Midwinter Bundle and Frozen Bundle, both filled with merry items, as well as the Yule Board. Those who would also like to deck out Geralt with the Winter-Event-only trinkets, but don't yet have him in their collection, can purchase the witcher's legendary neutral leader skin, as it is up for grabs right now in the shop, too. Learn more about the Winter Event GWENT: The Witcher Card Game is available for free on PC via GOG.COM and Steam, Apple M1 Macs running macOS, as well as on Android and iOS. For more information on GWENT, visit playgwent.com. Source: CD Projekt

CD PROJEKT RED today announced that the 7th season of Journey and the Saovine live event are available in GWENT: The Witcher Card Game right now. This newest installment of Journey brings over 80 rewards across more than 100 levels for players to unlock. In addition to battling in GWENT's Standard, Seasonal and Draft modes, weekly quests can be undertaken to provide more opportunities to progress through levels, while new chapters of this latest Journey's story will also be available each week — centering around two higher vampires: Regis, an old friend and companion of Geralt of Rivia, and Dettlaff van der Eretein, known from The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt expansion Blood and Wine. Watch the Journey Season 7 Trailer As with previous seasons, the 7th season of Journey is available in two tiers. The free tier is available to all GWENT players and offers avatars, borders, and reward points to unlock — while Journey's Premium paid tier offers all that and more, with cardbacks, coins, music tracks, and titles to unlock, alongside the Regis neutral leader skin as well as alternative outfits and trinkets for Regis to equip during battles. Journey Season 7 begins today and will run for three months. Learn More About the Latest Season of Journey Also available from today in GWENT is Saovine — an annual Halloween-themed event, where this year players must complete special quests given by the three Crones: Whispess, Brewess, and Weavess. Once a player completes all quests from one of the three Crones, they will unlock a title, avatar, and border — and will then be free to accept quests from the remaining Crones. Players will also receive a special coin for doing the bidding of two of the Crones, and a border trinket for completing every task for all three of them. All brand new 11 Saovine rewards can only be gained during this event by fulfilling the Crones' demands. During Saovine, a number of Halloween-inspired ornaments will also be on sale in the GWENT in-game store, including two brand new items: the Saovine gameboard and the Bat Wings trinket for Shupe's leader skin. Saovine will come to an end at 12:00 noon, November 4th CET. Watch the Saovine Event Trailer GWENT: The Witcher Card Game is available for free on PC via GOG.COM and Steam, Apple M1 Macs running macOS, as well as on Android and iOS. For more information on GWENT, visit playgwent.com.   Source: CD Projekt

CD PROJEKT RED announces that Alexander "TLG_Cyberz" Schmidt has claimed the ultimate victory in the Season 3 GWENT World Masters tournament this past weekend, earning the title of GWENT World Champion in the official Witcher Card Game esports series. The season's grand finale tournament played out over the course of Saturday and Sunday, December 4th-5th. Streamed live on Twitch in its entirety, it saw 8 of the best GWENT players from around the world competing in high-stakes battles for a share of the $71,000 prize pool and the title of GWENT World Champion. Relive GWENT World Masters on the official CD PROJEKT RED Twitch channel. The final tournament prize pool distribution and standings are as follows: WINNERAlexander "TLG_Cyberz" Schmidt (Germany)FINALISTSAlexander "TLG_Cyberz" Schmidt (Germany) — $36,140Ilya "BigKuKuRUzina35" Lyapin (Russia) — $9,230SEMIFINALISTSZhang "lord-triss" Yusheng (China) — $8,305Oleg "Akela114" Nikolaev (Russia) — $7,455QUARTERFINALISTSAleksander "TLG_Pajabol" Owczarek (Poland) — $3,480PaweÅ‚ "kams134" Skoroda (Poland) — $2,840Damian "TailBot" Kaźmierczak (Poland) — $1,775Elias "theshaggynuts" Sagmeister (Austria) — $1,775 During the event, before the final match, CD PROJEKT RED also revealed that a new content update for GWENT is coming Tuesday, December 7th. The update will add 12 new cards (2 per each faction), while also introducing a number of regular balance changes. The video overview for the update is available on Twitch, via the GWENT World Masters tournament recording, as well as on GWENT's official YouTube channel. CD PROJEKT RED would like to thank all participants and everyone who watched live to help make GWENT World Masters such a fantastic event.For a complete overview of GWENT Masters — the official esports series for GWENT: The Witcher Card Game — including the ruleset, format, and tournament dates, visit masters.playgwent.com.GWENT: The Witcher Card Game is available for free on PC via GOG.COM and Steam, Apple M1 Macs running macOS, as well as on Android and iOS. For more information on GWENT, visit playgwent.com.   Source: CD Projekt

S&P 500 gave up opening gains that could have lasted longer – but the bear is still strong, and didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Defeated during the first hour, the sellers couldn‘t make much progress, and credit markets confirm the grim picture. There is a but, though – quality debt instruments turned higher, and maintained much of their intraday gains.And that could be a sign – in spite of the bearish onslaught driving the buyers back to the basement before the closing bell – that more buying would materialize to close this week, with consequences for S&P 500 as well. I would simply have preferred to see rising yields once again, that would be a great catalyst of further stock market selling. Now, the wisest course of action looks to be waiting for the upcoming upswing (one that didn‘t develop during the Asian session really), to get exhausted.Remember my yesterday‘s words:(…) The rising yields are all about betting on a really, really hawkish Fed – just how far are the calls for not 25, but 50bp hike this Mar? Inflation is still resilient (of course) but all it takes is some more hawkish statements that wouldn‘t venture out of the latest narrative line.Anyway, the markets aren‘t drinking the kool-aid – the yield curve continues flattening, which means the bets on Fed‘s misstep are on. True, the tightening moves have been quite finely telegraphed, but the markets didn‘t buy it, and were focused on the Santa Claus (liquidity-facilitated) rally instead – therefore, my Dec 20 warning is on. The clock to adding zero fresh liquidity, and potentially even not rolling over maturing securities (as early as Mar?) is ticking.And the run to commodities goes on, with $85 crude oil not even needing fresh conflict in Eastern Europe – the demand almost at pre-corona levels leaving supply and stockpiles in the dust, is fit for the job.With SPX short profits off the table, crude oil consolidating, and cryptos having second thoughts about the decline continuation, it‘s been precious metals that stole the spotlight yesterday – really great moves across the board to enjoy!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 buyers are nowhere to be seen – what kind of reflexive rebound would we get next? The odds aren‘t arrayed for it to be reaching very high – yields are catching up even with financials...Credit MarketsHYG is likely to pause a little next, and the degree of its move relative to the quality debt instruments, would be telling. Rates are though going to keep rising, so keep looking for a temporary HYG stabilization only.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver keep catching fire, and are slowly breaking out of the unpleasantly long consolidation. The strongly bullish undertones are playing out nicely – these aren‘t yet the true celebrations.Crude OilCrude oil looks like it could pause a little here – the stellar run (by no means over yet) is attracting selling interest. The buyers are likely to pause for a moment over the next few days.CopperCopper is paring back on the missed opportunity to catch up – the red metal will be dragged higher alongside the other commodities, and isn‘t yet offering signs of true, outperforming strength.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum really are setting up a little breather, but I‘m not looking for bullish miracles to happen. Still, the buying interest was there yesterday, and that would influence the entry to the coming week (bullishly).SummaryS&P 500 upswing turned into a dead cat bounce pretty fast, and while we may see another attempt by the bulls, I think it would be rather short-lived. Think lasting a couple of days only. Not until there is a change in the credit markets, have the stock market bulls snowball‘s chance in hell. Commodities and especially precious metals, are well placed to keep reaping the rewards – just as I had written a week ago. For now, it‘s fun to be riding the short side in S&P 500 judiciously, and the time for another position opening, looks slowly but surely approaching. Let the great profits grow elsewhere in the meantime.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Gold soared as investors got scared by reports of an allegedly impending military conflict. Was it worth reacting sharply to geopolitical factors? Gold has been performing quite nicely in January. As the chart below shows, its price increased from $1,806 at the end of December to around $1,820 this week, strengthening its position above $1,800. Yesterday (January 19, 2022), gold prices went sharply higher, jumping above $1,840, as one can see in the chart below. What happened? Investors got scared of the Russian bear and inflationary hydra. President Biden predicted that Russia would move into Ukraine. The threat of invasion and renewal of a conflict weakened risk appetite among investors. To complete the geopolitical picture, this week, North Korea fired missiles again (on Monday, the country conducted its fourth missile test of the year), while terrorists attacked the United Arab Emirates with drones. The heightened risk aversion could spur some demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. The yellow metal tends to benefit from greater uncertainty. However, investors should remember that geopolitical risks usually cause only a short-lived reaction. Investors also recalled the ongoing global inflationary crisis. Some news helped them wake up. In the U.K., inflation surged 5.4% in December, the highest since March 1992. Meanwhile, in Canada, inflation jumped 4.8%, also the fastest pace in 30 years. Additionally, crude oil prices have jumped to around $86.5 per barrel, the highest value since 2014, as the chart below shows. The timing couldn’t be worse, as inflation is already elevated, while higher oil implies higher CPI in the future. Gold should, therefore, welcome the rise in oil prices. On the other hand, it could prompt the Fed to react more forcefully and aggressively to tighten its monetary policy.   Implications for Gold What does the recent mini-rally imply for the gold market? Well, it’s never a good idea to draw far-reaching conclusions from short-term moves, especially those caused by geopolitical factors. Risk-offs and risk-on sentiments come and go. However, let’s do justice to gold. It hit a two-months high, more and more boldly settling in above $1,800. All this happened despite rising bond yields. As the chart below shows, the long-term real interest rates have increased from about -1.0% at the end of 2021 to about -0.6%. Gold’s resilience in the face of rising interest rates is praiseworthy. Having said that, investors shouldn’t forget that 2022 will be a year of the Fed’s tightening cycle, rising interest rates, and also a certain moderation in inflation. All these factors could be important headwinds for gold this year. However, investors may underestimate how the Fed’s monetary policy will impact market conditions. After all, the Fed’s hawkish stance also entails some risks for the financial markets and the overall economy. Practically, each tightening cycle in the past has led to an economic crisis. As a reminder, after four hikes in 2018, the Fed had to reverse its stance and cut them in 2019. The Fed signaled not only a few hikes this year, but also a reduction of its balance sheet. Given the enormous indebtedness of the economy and Wall Street’s addiction to easy money, it might be too much to swallow. Importantly, when the Fed is focused on fighting inflation, its ability to help the markets will be limited. I thought that such worries would arise later this year, supporting gold, but maybe the gold market has already started to price in the possibility of economic turbulence triggered by the Fed’s tightening cycle. Anyway, next week, the FOMC will gather for the first time in 2022, and it could be an important, insightful event for the gold market. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold surged over geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine. Following a three-week-long sideways grind, the break above the triple top at 1830 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side. 1850 is the next level to clear, which would lead to November’s peak at 1877. The RSI has shot into the overbought area, and some profit-taking could briefly drive the price lower. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to join in. 1820 near the base of the recent rally is a key support in this case. AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar climbed back after the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in December. A surge above 0.7270 was the bulls’ attempt to initiate a reversal. As sellers covered their bets, the way might be open for a meaningful rebound. The follow-up correction met solid buying interest at 0.7170. Sentiment would remain upbeat as long as price action stays above this key support. 0.7290 is an important hurdle and its breach could trigger a runaway rally towards 0.7420. US 30 tests major support The Dow Jones 30 retreats as traders take profit ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. The index has given up all its gains from the late December rally and fell through the daily support at 34700. This bearish breakout could extend losses to the psychological level of 34000, a critical floor to prevent a deeper correction in the medium-term. The RSI’s oversold situation may attract some buying interest. Nonetheless, the bulls will need to lift offers around 35500 in a show of force, in order to turn sentiment around.

GameStop stock fails to ignite despite the gaming sector being in play. GameStop is a bystander retailer, while the big activity is game makers. GME stock remains bearish in our view despite a mid-week short squeeze attempt. GameStop (GME) stock surged in early January but has since slumped consistently. At least some volatility returned to the name. GameStop was the original meme stock but has been suffering of late as investors turn their backs on high growth and high-risk names. GameStop Stock News A pop of 7% on January 7 has been about as good as it gets so far this year for GameStop (GME) holders as the stock exhibits more signs of dwindling interest in the meme stock space. The Wall Street Journal did report on January 7 that GameStop was entering the NFT and cryptocurrency market. This has echoes of another meme stock, AMC. It may smack of desperation or even bad timing given the crypto and NFT craze has also retreated in line with meme stocks. Or it may be a shrewd move. Time will tell, but so far the shares have not given the news much traction. Interest did spike in GME on the back of the mega-deal from Microsoft (MSFT) offering up $69 billion in cash to buy Activision (ATVI), but GameStop is merely a powerless bystander in the acquisition fervor sweeping the gaming sector. GameStop (GME) jumped to the top of WallStreetBets mentions, but this has not seen the correlated share price uptick. In fact, GME shares are down 17% in a week. That takes losses so far for 2022 to nearly 30%. One year on and it does not look like history is going to repeat itself. Video game sales data out yesterday was not exactly comforting with the figure in December down 1% following November's 10% fall. GameStop Stock Forecast The chart is still highly bearish, which was triggered after the double-top formation. This played out and reached our $150 target and then some. Now GME has broken the $118 level, which brings $86 firmly into focus as the next major target. Obviously, $100 along the way will generate headlines, but this is purely psychological. We also note the volume gap from $110 to $70 that could accelerate the move. Bearish unless $160 is broken. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

  The S&P 500 index broke below its early December low. Are we in a new bear market or is this still just a downward correction? The broad stock market index lost 1.10% on Thursday following its Wednesday’s decline of around 1%. The S&P 500 index fell below the 4,500 level and it was the lowest since mid-October. Investors reacted to quarterly earnings releases and further Russia-Ukraine tensions. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. This morning the market is expected to open 0.4% lower and it will most likely extend the downtrend. The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,500-4,525, marked by the recent support level. On the other hand, the support level is now at around 4,450. The S&P 500 broke below an over month-long upward trend line this week, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Broke Below its Previous Lows Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. The market broke below its previous local lows along the 4,520 level. There was a chance that entering a long position would be justified here, but any short-term bullish scenario seems invalidated now. On the other hand, it may be too late to enter a short position right now, because of some clear technical oversold conditions. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% lower this morning, so it will likely extend a short-term downtrend. We may see another intraday rebound, but there have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Yesterday we’ve seen a convincing rally, but it failed and the market sold off to new lows. The coming quarterly earnings releases (next week we’ll have MSFT, AAPL, TSLA among others) remain a bullish factor for stocks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 reached yet another new low yesterday and it was the lowest since mid-October. Stocks will most likely bounce at some point, but any rally may be short-lived. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 gave up yet again the opening gains – the bear didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Buyers defeated during the first hours, and credit markets are once again leaning the bearish way. Risk-off rules even if long-dated Treasuries rose for a day. Tech investors are selling first, and asking questions later, with consumer discretionaries, financials, and also energy hit. The washout S&P 500 bottom is approaching, and our fresh short profits are growing...Talking profits, after a one-day consolidation in precious metals, time has come to cash in on crude oil gains before the decline questioning $86 – that‘s second outsized gains trade in a row there. Black gold won‘t likely be held down for too long, and the same goes for copper knocking on $4.60 for the third time shortly. Excellent for the bottom line.This is the season of real assets (commodities and precious metals), and of the stock market correction still playing out, and driving open crypto short profits alike. Much to enjoy across the board as my fresh portfolio performance chart (check out my homesite) reached a solid new high yesterday – it‘s one year today since I launched my site. Tremendous journey building on prior own strength – thank you very much!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 buyers still can‘t get their act together – the momentum remains to the downside until credit markets turn and tech bleeding stops. This can happen as early as Monday or Tuesday – I remain watching closely for signs of a high-confidence setup to perhaps take.Credit MarketsHYG pause didn‘t last long, and the volume keeps being elevated without credible signs of buying interest. What‘s more, the credit market posture is decidedly risk-off.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are likely to pause a little, the miners say – but the propensity to rise is there, even this early in the tightening cycle. I‘m looking for dips to be eagerly bought.Crude OilCrude oil looks like seeing the bullish resolve tested soon, and odds are the dip would be relatively quickly bought. Still, the pace of steep upswings is likely to slow down next, I say so even as I continue being medium-term bullish ($90 is doable).CopperCopper is paring back on the missed opportunity to catch up, and it‘s good the red metal managed to rise even if quite a few other commodities stalled. Waking up alongside silver, finally?Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum little breather is over, the bears did strike again – and it may not be over yet, really not.SummaryThe opening sentence of yesterday‘s summary proved very true, and even faster that I thought possible - „S&P 500 upswing turned into a dead cat bounce pretty fast, and while we may see another attempt by the bulls, I think it would be rather short-lived. Think lasting a couple of days only.“ With the bears in the driving seat overnight – on the heels of a risk-off turn in the credit markets – we‘re likely to witness today another selling attempt.Another yesterday mentioned conclusion remains true as well - „Commodities and especially precious metals, are well placed to keep reaping the rewards – just as I had written a week ago. For now, it‘s fun to be riding the short side in S&P 500 judiciously... Let the great profits grow elsewhere in the meantime.“ Let‘s just add that cryptos are making us smile today, too.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The precious metals still do pirouettes on the trading floor, but they can stumble in their choreography. The bears are just waiting for it. With the GDX ETF soaring on significant volume on Jan. 19, the senior miners had a renewed pep in their step. With gold, silver, and mining stocks all dancing to the same beat, the precious metals garnered all of the bullish attention. However, with the trio known to cut their performances short as soon as investors arrive, will the mood music remain so sanguine? Well, for one, the GDX ETF has a history of peaking when the crowd enters the party. For example, I marked with the blue vertical dashed lines and blue arrows below how large daily spikes in volume often coincide with short-term peaks. Moreover, with another ominous event unfolding on Jan. 19, historical data implies that we’re much closer to the top than the bottom. To explain, I wrote on Jan. 20: From the technical point of view, we just saw another day similar to the other days that I marked with vertical dashed lines and black arrows. Those days were either right at the tops or not far from them. As much as yesterday’s (7%!) rally looks bullish, taking a look at the situation from a broad perspective provides us with the opposite – bearish – implications. The zig-zag scenario is being realized as well. The GDX ETF moved to the upper border of the rising trend channel. Also, doesn’t it remind you of something? Hint: it happened at a similar time of the year. Yes, the current price/volume action is similar to what we saw in early 2021. The RSI was above 60, a short-term rally that was preceded by a bigger decline, and a strong daily rally on huge volume at the end of the corrective rally. We’ve seen it all now, and we saw it in early 2021. Please see below: What’s more, the senior miners’ fatigue is already present. For example, the GDX ETF declined by 1.40% on Jan. 20, and the index ended the session only $0.30 above its 2021 close. Likewise, the senior miners failed to rally above the upper trendline of their ascending channel (drawn with the blue lines above). As a result, the price action resembles an ABC zigzag pattern, and while the short-term outlook is less certain, the medium-term outlook is profoundly bearish. As further evidence, the HUI Index’s weekly chart provides some important clues. For example, despite the profound rally on Jan. 19, the index’s stochastic indicator still hasn’t recorded a buy signal. Moreover, the HUI Index dropped after reaching its 50-week moving average, and the ominous rejection mirrors 2013. Back then, the index approached its 50-week moving average, then suffered a pullback, and then suffered a monumental decline. As a result, is this time really different? Remember – history tends to rhyme, and this time the analogies from the past favor a bearish forecast for gold stocks. Turning to the GDXJ ETF, the junior miners were off to the races on Jan. 19. However, the size of the rally is actually smaller than what we witnessed in early 2021. Moreover, when the short-term sugar high ended back then, optimism turned to pessimism and the GDXJ ETF sank to new lows. Thus, with the junior miners’ 2021 story one of lower highs and lower lows, 2022 will likely result in more of the same. Please see below: Finally, the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) isn’t at levels that trigger a major reversal. The Index is now at 30. However, far from a medium-term bottom, the latest reading is still more than 20 points above the 2016 and 2020 lows. Likewise, when the BPGDM hit 30 in 2013, the HUI Index was already in the midst of its medium-term downtrend (similar to what we witnessed in 2021). However, the milestone was far from the final low. With material weakness persisting and a lasting bottom not forming until the end of 2015/early 2016, further downside for gold (and silver) likely lies ahead. For context, it’s my belief that the precious metals will bottom when the BPGDM hits zero – and perhaps when it remains there for some time. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks put on quite a show on Jan. 19. However, with their bullish rhythm known to turn bearish in an instant, investors should proceed with caution. Moreover, the data shows that when investors rush to buy the precious metals, their over-enthusiasm results in medium-term weakness, not strength. As a result, the trio’s declines likely have more room to run before long-term buying opportunities emerge later in 2022. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

TSLA finished Thursday in the green, gaining 0.06% to $996.27. Equities had gyrated sharply but fell as the close approached. Tesla stock outperforms as Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fall sharply. Tesla (TSLA) managed to hold onto intraday gains but only just barely on Thursday. Stocks (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) had opened well and were up some 1% for the main indices at the halfway stage of Thursday, but jitters resurfaced as the finish line approached. Investors began dumping positions, and the main indices closed in the red. The S&P 500 shed 1.1%, the Dow closed 0.89% lower and the Nasdaq closed down the most at 1.34% in the red. Tesla however just held onto a green day, up 0.06%. Given that it is a volatile name and a high beta one, this was a strong outperformance. Tesla Stock News: bearish Bank of America forecast a worrying sign Tesla (TSLA) stock may have held its ground in anticipation of its Q4 earnings, which are due out next week. Bank of America and Piper Sandler fought it out with conflicting analyst reports. Bank of America took a dim view of Tesla's market share forecasts, saying it would drop from 69% to 19% of the EV market due to legacy automakers ramping up EV production. However, Piper Sandler noted that it sees Tesla beating delivery estimates for the year due to factories in Texas and Berlin ramping up production. For now, it appears investors are putting more focus on those delivery numbers and anticipating a strong earnings report. The Bank of America report is more alarming, but it does have a longer term outlook with the market share fall predicted for 2024. Tesla Stock Forecast: $886 is a futher downside target Yesterday's move has kept Tesla above the key short-term pivot at $980, but note that yesterday's high price was stuck at the 9-day moving average and Tesla failed to break through. This gives us more belief in an imminent break of $980. If this level does go, then the move to $886 will likely be quick due to a lack of volume. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc rallied as traders poured into safe-haven currencies. The pair previously bounced off the critical floor (0.9090) on the daily chart. An oversold RSI in this demand zone brought in some buying interest. However, sentiment remains downbeat with the greenback struggling to clear offers around 0.9180. A fall below said support would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.9020 as late buyers rush to the exit. On the upside, a bullish breakout would open the door to the recent peak at 0.9275. CADJPY breaks key support The Canadian dollar slipped after disappointing retail sales in November. A bearish RSI divergence at the recent high (91.15) indicates a loss of momentum in the rally. The first drop below 90.60 prompted some buyers to bail out. Then the rebound met stiff selling pressure at 91.90. And this is a sign of exhaustion after a four-week-long uptrend. The loonie now has fallen through the major support at 90.60, with 89.80 as the target. As the RSI goes oversold, traders may look to sell the next bounce near 91.05. UK 100 tumbles through supports The FTSE 100 stalls as appetite subsides across risk assets. An overbought RSI on the daily chart suggests over-extension after a month-long rally. A pullback is necessary for the bulls to catch their breath. A drop below 7530 and then 7470 further weighs on short-term sentiment as profit-taking intensifies. The index is about to test 7380, a fresh demand zone from the November-December double top on the daily timeframe. The bulls need to reclaim 7540 before a rebound could gain traction.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the trend changes in speculator sentiment we are seeing in the Euro and the British pound sterling. Speculators have been boosting their bets for the Euro and pound sterling over the past weeks and have now pushed their bets in both currencies to their best levels since September. Euro positions have gained for five consecutive weeks (a 5-week total rise of +36,463 contracts) and have now been in bullish territory for two straight weeks after spending thirteen out of the past fourteen weeks in bearish territory. This week’s net position of +24,584 contracts marks the best position since September 14th when positions were in a downtrend and on their way into negative territory. British pound speculator bets, meanwhile, have risen sharply with four straight weeks of gains (a 4-week rise by +57,439 contracts) and have now settled into a current position of just -247 net contracts. The net position had been at a multi-year bearish high of -57,686 contracts as recently as December 21st before a turnaround in sentiment. Free Reports: Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Watch List this Quarter - Here are the Stock Symbols that stood out so far in the fourth quarter of 2021. Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis. Joining the Euro (18,579 contracts) and British pound sterling (28,919 contracts) with positive changes this week were the yen (6,646 contracts), New Zealand dollar (273 contracts), Canadian dollar (14,868 contracts), Australian dollar (3,032 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,371 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,458 contracts), Brazil real (-557 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,150 contracts), Russian ruble (-3,195 contracts) and Bitcoin (-172 contracts) Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jan-18-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index EUR 691,882 80 24,584 43 -50,464 61 25,880 17 JPY 201,820 56 -80,879 17 99,740 86 -18,861 9 GBP 183,234 28 -247 74 2,848 31 -2,601 50 AUD 181,136 68 -88,454 3 98,519 92 -10,065 28 MXN 151,778 27 4,920 29 -7,490 70 2,570 54 CAD 143,371 26 7,492 58 -13,723 47 6,231 42 USD Index 53,283 74 36,434 89 -42,397 4 5,963 82 RUB 45,413 46 6,422 29 -7,251 69 829 57 NZD 44,727 33 -8,331 57 10,622 47 -2,291 26 CHF 39,871 14 -10,810 51 13,799 46 -2,989 54 BRL 32,098 30 -11,369 53 10,759 48 610 74 Bitcoin 11,468 62 -549 91 -22 0 571 26   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,892 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 3.2 15.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 82.7 4.2 – Net Position: 36,434 -42,397 5,963 – Gross Longs: 42,369 1,684 8,180 – Gross Shorts: 5,935 44,081 2,217 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.6 4.1 81.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.7 -3.6 6.8   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,005 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 56.3 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 63.6 7.8 – Net Position: 24,584 -50,464 25,880 – Gross Longs: 211,901 389,617 79,656 – Gross Shorts: 187,317 440,081 53,776 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.5 61.5 17.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.1 -8.6 -4.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,166 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.7 62.5 14.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 60.9 15.8 – Net Position: -247 2,848 -2,601 – Gross Longs: 39,760 114,486 26,267 – Gross Shorts: 40,007 111,638 28,868 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 31.4 50.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.4 -30.6 28.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,525 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 86.1 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.0 36.6 18.0 – Net Position: -80,879 99,740 -18,861 – Gross Longs: 8,002 173,701 17,475 – Gross Shorts: 88,881 73,961 36,336 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.9 85.7 9.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.3 9.5 -3.1   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,660 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.3 67.3 30.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.4 32.7 37.5 – Net Position: -10,810 13,799 -2,989 – Gross Longs: 925 26,828 11,951 – Gross Shorts: 11,735 13,029 14,940 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.1 46.4 54.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.2 -7.4 15.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,376 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.7 41.1 21.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 50.7 17.5 – Net Position: 7,492 -13,723 6,231 – Gross Longs: 49,792 58,921 31,270 – Gross Shorts: 42,300 72,644 25,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.9 46.9 42.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.3 -13.5 6.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -88,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,486 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 82.2 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.8 27.9 16.1 – Net Position: -88,454 98,519 -10,065 – Gross Longs: 9,051 148,978 19,008 – Gross Shorts: 97,505 50,459 29,073 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.8 92.4 27.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.2 -0.3 17.1   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,604 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.0 66.8 6.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.6 43.0 11.5 – Net Position: -8,331 10,622 -2,291 – Gross Longs: 11,612 29,876 2,851 – Gross Shorts: 19,943 19,254 5,142 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.3 46.8 25.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 30.0 -5.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,451 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 49.7 46.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.5 51.0 2.2 – Net Position: 4,920 -7,490 2,570 – Gross Longs: 75,461 69,942 5,901 – Gross Shorts: 70,541 77,432 3,331 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.4 69.7 53.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.4 -30.3 15.6   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,812 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.1 56.6 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.6 23.1 7.0 – Net Position: -11,369 10,759 610 – Gross Longs: 10,958 18,179 2,841 – Gross Shorts: 22,327 7,420 2,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.4 47.8 74.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 6.6 9.9   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,617 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.3 60.0 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.2 75.9 2.8 – Net Position: 6,422 -7,251 829 – Gross Longs: 16,034 27,233 2,101 – Gross Shorts: 9,612 34,484 1,272 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.6 68.9 57.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.5 19.1 -25.4   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -377 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.4 3.1 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.2 3.3 7.3 – Net Position: -549 -22 571 – Gross Longs: 8,417 355 1,407 – Gross Shorts: 8,966 377 836 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.9 28.5 25.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.4 -13.2 -5.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here. CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News Opinions   COT Bonds Speculators sharply reduce 5-Year Treasury bearish bets for 2nd week →

Nike reported earnings after the close on Monday. NKE stock is higher after a beat on revenue and earnings per share. Nike says Vietnam production levels are now back to 80% of prior volumes. Nike (NKE) seems to have yielded to its longtime trademark – "Just Do It". The company certainly did that on Monday as it unveiled another strong set of results. Not only that, but concerns over supplies from Vietnam were quieted, and the shares are likely to open higher on Tuesday. Nike stock news Earnings per share came in at $0.83, ahead of the $0.63 estimate. This was a significant beat. Revenue was also ahead at $11.36 billion versus estimates for $11.25 billion. Nike shares popped over 2% on the earnings release. With global equity markets looking a bit healthier on Tuesday morning, expect more gains for NKE stock price as the session progresses. Recent concerns over Vietnam supplies had held Nike stock back. Vietnam is a major textile supplier globally, and it was not just Nike that was affected. A covid outbreak had forced numerous closures. However, Nike outlined in the earnings release that Vietnam production levels were now back up to 80% of preclosure levels. The company said it expects revenue to grow in the low single digits for Q3 in line with consensus at just over 2%. Nike has mentioned that input costs are rising and is planning for supply chain costs to rise. Nike did say that it expects margins to rise 150 basis points. This margin gain is being driven by a direct selling online model that Nike has been adopting. Nike stock forecast Nike is not cheap. The stock I mean, not the sneakers! The company trades on a relatively high price/earnings multiple of 45. This is a significant premium to its peers and reflective of Nike's leadership position. Technically, things do not look too positive in the longer-term outlook either. We have a very clear double top in place from August and November. It remains to be seen if Nike shares will be able to hold above resistance at $164-$166 from the 9 and 21-day moving averages. We doubt it and would be fading any rally. Longer term we have a falling Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. There is big support coming from the 200-day moving average. Look how well that worked in late September. Currently, the 200-day is at $152. A solid break of that and Nike stock will look to fill the gap created by earnings on June 24. That support is at $134. Failure to fill that gap will be a sign to get back in again, just like in late September. Retracements are opportunities to identify a longer-term trend at play. A retracement that does not create a new significant low is obviously bullish. How to identify one is the tricky part. Given that this is a longer-term time frame, the trick is actually to be slightly late to the party and wait for confirmation. NKE 1-day chart

The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down to 11 on Sunday and slightly up to 13 by early Monday. Crypto market capitalisation lost another 1.1% overnight to $1.61 trillion, the lowest since August. As is often the case with prolonged sell-offs, altcoins are falling with acceleration to the first cryptocurrency, causing BTC's share gains, which already stands at 41.3% against lows of 39.3% in mid-January. Bitcoin's share of 40% seems like a turning point, twice triggering a correction in the crypto market. This level stood like an informal threshold that optimism about altcoins had gone too far. However, the rise in bitcoin's share does little to help its price. We saw the sixth consecutive bearish daily candlestick on Monday morning, and the price rolled back to $35K. The bears may well be able to sell the price down to $32.5K, closing the gap of July and returning the rate to last summer's support area. Alarmingly, the sharp reversal on Friday was not followed by any meaningful bounce. Some observers point out that this is a worrying signal, suggesting further market declines, as we have not seen a final capitulation. Without capitulation, the markets will remain with an overhang of sellers. The price of ether has fallen to $2400, which is less than half of its peak price in November. Events are developing in a bearish scenario, so far broadly repeating what we saw in 2018 in terms of overall sentiment. Long-term buyers can avoid buying at prices above 30k for bitcoin and 2k for ether. We believe long-term investors will look out for purchases in the 20-30k per bitcoin area. Whether these purchases will be at the upper or lower boundary depends, among other things, on the situation in the stock markets. The return of buyers there will support the demand for risk among institutional investors. But as long as we see only steady selling from them, it is too early to talk about buying.

  You don't have to be a fortune teller to predict some of the precious metals’ behavior in the market. Any incoming signs take the shape of a bear. What a signal-rich week that was! At least if you’re interested in forecasting gold and predicting silver prices. The USD Index rallied, but that was the least interesting of the important developments, as it had already reversed during the preceding week. So, the fact that the USD Index continued its medium-term uptrend last week is not that noteworthy. It needs to be said, though, as that continues to be an important factor for the future of the precious metals market. To be clear – the implications for the PM sector are bearish. What about gold, the key precious metal? Gold is so far almost unchanged this year, despite the initial decline and the subsequent rally. Overall, gold is up by $3.20 so far in 2022, which is next to nothing. Gold rallied on a supposedly dangerous situation regarding Ukraine, but it failed to rally above the combination of resistance lines and very little changed technically. On a side note, I would like to remind you that, based on our own reliable source in Ukraine (one of our team members is located there), the risk of military conflict (in particular, a severe one) is low, and it seems that the market’s reaction was greatly exaggerated. Anyway, moving back to technicals, let’s keep this $3.20-up-this-year statistic in mind while we take a look at what’s going on in silver and mining stocks. Silver declined on Friday, but it’s still up by $0.97 so far in 2022. This means that on a short-term basis, silver greatly outperformed gold. What’s up with mining stocks? The GDX ETF – a proxy for generally senior mining stocks – is down this year by $0.38, which is 1.19%. At the same time, the GDXJ ETF is down by $0.87, which is 2.07%. In other words: While silver is outperforming gold on a short-term basis, gold mining stocks are underperforming it. Junior mining stocks (our short position) are declining more than senior miners, and in fact, they are declining the most out of the entire precious metals sector. Silver’s outperformance, accompanied by gold miners weakness, is a powerful bearish combination in the case of the entire precious metals sector. If the general stock market is going to slide, silver and mining stocks (in particular, junior mining stocks) are likely to decline in a rather extreme manner. The thing is… We just saw something in the general stock market that we haven’t seen since early 2020 – right before the massive decline that triggered the huge declines in the precious metals sector. The RSI Index just moved below 30 for the first time since pre-slide moments. Just like what we saw back then, the S&P 500 is now declining on increasing volume. Yes, RSI below 30 is generally considered oversold territory, but the direct analogies take precedence over the “usual” way in which things work in markets in general. In this case, the situation could get from oversold to extremely oversold. Let’s keep in mind that stocks declined very sharply in 2020. One could say that times were different, but were they really? The key difference is that the monetary authorities are now already after the bullish money-printing cycle and are handling inflation by aiming to increase interest rates, while they had been preparing to cut them in 2020. The situation regarding the pandemic is not that different either. Sure, back in 2020, it was all new, we had massive lockdowns and there was great uncertainty regarding… pretty much everything. Now, the situation is not entirely unexpected, but given the explosive nature of new COVID-19 cases (likely due to the Omicron variant), it’s still quite new and uncertain. The uncertainty is not as great as it was back in 2020, but then again, now we’re facing monetary tightening, not dramatic dovish actions. Thus, I wouldn’t exclude a situation in which we really see a repeat of the early-2020 performance, where the declines are sharp and huge. The technicals in the precious metals market have been pointing to that outcome for months anyway, especially the long-term HUI Index chart that I’ve been discussing previously. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

GameStop stock stages a dead cat bounce on Friday. GME stock closes up nearly 4% on Friday as market freefalls. More losses are likely on Monday as momentum fades and meme is massacred. GameStop (GME) managed to outperform the market significantly on Friday. The meme stock king closed nearly 4% higher at $106.36 despite the main indices closing sharply in the red. However, this was merely a dead cat bounce, and we will outline our reasoning below. GameStop Stock News Nothing too significant behind Friday's outperformance. GameStop (GME) shares had suffered eight consecutive days of losses. Statistically, an up day was becoming more and more likely. GameStop passed a few milestones without much fanfare or reaction from the stock price. Social media traders attempted to play up the one-year anniversary of the GameStop pop, and CEO Ryan Cohen joined in. However, the stock slid. An announcement of a pivot into the NFT space was also met by indifference after a quick surge from the share price. Despite GME spending much of last week near the top of social media mentions, it failed to hook any buyers. The market has little time for risk at present, and speculative meme stocks are getting hit hard so far this year. As we have mentioned, this may be a good thing and avert a full-blown bubble bursting, akin to 2000. The NFT announcement did see a brief pop, but that merely presented a fresh selling opportunity. Year to date, GME is now down nearly 30% and is likely to get worse. The main trading lesson of momentum trading is to get out quickly when momentum stops or stalls. This is not investing or buy-and-hold. This is the realm of quick scalping and risk control. Momentum has collapsed in retail names. Witness falling volumes, falling single share volumes, lower retail sentiment, and drastically lower call option volume: all signs of falling momentum. GameStop Stock Forecast $100 will be broken soon, possibly today or Tuesday. That will lead to some stop-loss triggering as people are herd animals and love round numbers. There will be plenty of stops sitting just below $100. $86 is the target thereafter. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has more room to run before being overbought. Breaking $86 is big. That was the retest following the power surge higher back in February pf last year. Below $86 volume thins out, and there is a volume gap until $50. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

Bitcoin will create, not destroy BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, no rush: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 25th, 2022. All the typical fears came forward after last week’s price decline in the crypto space. Fears on why to get out of one’s bitcoin hodls. Even to walk away from the idea of bitcoin being a good store of value. But the emotional decision in market participation is often the wrong choice to come out ahead. Bitcoin will not be regulated away. With a near 100 billion tax revenue, bitcoin is unlikely to be banned in the USA. It has established itself in size as an income stream that no one could afford to give up. The monthly chart above shows that after the recent double top bitcoin´s two year strong up move has seen three months of a price decline to the 50% Fibonacci retracement line. To the right of the chart, we portray two fictitious candles as we see a likelihood of the future to unfold over the next two months.   BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, sideways to up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of January 25th, 2022. On January 20th, the Federal Reserve Board released a discussion paper that examines the pros and cons of a potential U.S. central bank digital currency. News like this shakes up investor’s minds, fearing possible conversions where fiat currency savings might lose some of their value. On top, massive fear ruled the market over the last few days and weeks, a time when professionals know that opportunities are just around the corner. A look at the weekly chart reveals that the right top of the monthly double top had a substructure of a head and shoulders formation. Last week, the shoulder line broke and sent prices plummeting for a near 22% loss. Prices find themselves now in a value zone. In the histogram to the right of the chart, we see a fractal volume analysis. This analysis suggests supply in the price zone between US$36,000 and US$31,000. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Bitcoin will create, not destroy: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of January 25th, 2022. As much as we expect a sideways zone for four to eight weeks before bitcoin prices head significantly higher, we already attempted three long trades on a daily time frame after prices entered into the value zone pointed out on the previous chart. Our approach of position building thanks to a quad exit strategy exploit low-risk entry points. Consequently, we were able in the past to catch bitcoin long-term trades near their price lows. News has more than once in the past accelerated price up moves for bitcoin in an unexpected fashion. As a result, we are actively scanning for low-risk opportunities already now. The price moves marked in white show how prices decline quickly in bitcoin, while typically trading sideways most of the time. Fortunately, rising prices act just the same way. The volume profile to the right of the chart shows four significant supply zones. (marked in orange dotted horizontal lines.) Bitcoin will create, not destroy: The good news is that government’s conversion of fiat money to digital might scare people into fleeing with their savings into bitcoin. Henceforth, they further stabilize this payment method. We mention this possible future for bitcoin since changes could be rapid, significant, and surprising. Consequently, bitcoin might find itself in a fast uptrend with high price targets to be expected. We also want to point out the nature of your participation in long-term bitcoin acquisitions. You are not only a speculator on a perfect investment, but also a holder of a positive value. A principle value that protects your freedom of purchasing power. A purchasing power that isn’t transparent allows you to conduct business as you please. Transactions without a controlling force casting a shadow over your choices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|January 25th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

S&P 500 closed below the 200-day moving average – unheard of. But similarly to the turn in credit markets on Wednesday, the bulls can surprise shortly as the differential between HYG and TLT with LQD is more pronounced now. The field is getting clear, the bulls can move – and shortly would whether or not we see the autumn lows tested next. Now that my target of 4,400 has been reached (the journey to this support has been a more one-sided event than anticipated), 4,300 are next in the bears sight. The bearish voice and appetite is growing, which may call for a little caution in celebrating the downswings next. Relief rally is approaching, even if not immediately and visibly here yet. All I am waiting for, is a convincing turn in the credit markets, which we haven‘t seen yet. The dollar is likely to waver in the medium-term, and that‘s what‘s helping the great and profitable moves in commodities, and reviving precious metals. Crypto short profits are likewise growing – the real question is when the tech slide would stop (getting closer), and how much would financials rebound as well. Not worried about energy – the oil dip would turn out a mere blip. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers are nowhere to be seen, volume isn‘t yet at capitulation levels – rebound off increasingly oversold levels is approaching. Tech melting down faster than value is to be expected – look for consumer staples to do fine too, not just the sectors mentioned above. As written on Friday, the turn in bleeding in credit markets and tech may stop as early as Monday or Tuesday – I remain watching closely for signs of a high-confidence setup to perhaps take. Credit Markets HYG paused for a day while quality debt instruments rose – that‘s still risk-off, but symptomatic of the larger battle and buying interest at these levels already. Could presage a respite in stocks during the regular session next. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver indeed paused a little – in spite of the miners weakness, that‘s no reversal. Most likely only a temporary correction within a developing uptrend. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are finally getting tested, and by the look of oil stocks, it‘s not going to be a test reaching too far. Not even volume rose on the day – look for price stabilization followed by another upswing. Copper Copper had actually a hidden bullish day – a good consolidation of prior gains. While the volume isn‘t pointing the clearly bearish way, the amplitude of the move can be repeated next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum Sunday rally fizzled out, and the downswing doesn‘t look to be yet over as another day of panic across the board is ahead. No signs from cryptos that the slide is stopping now. Summary S&P 500 bulls are readying a surprise – the long string of red days is coming to a pause. Credit markets turning a bit risk-on coupled with a tech pause and financials revival (not to mention consumer staples and energy) would be the recipe to turn the tide. We‘re in a large S&P 500 range, and got quite near its lower band at around 4,300. The short rides are to be wound down shortly, and that will coincide with another commodities run higher. Look to precious metals likewise not to disappoint while cryptos continue struggling at the moment. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

GBPUSD remains under pressure The sterling struggles as global markets remain risk-off. A limited rebound has fought to hold above 1.3570 and the sell-off accelerated after a bearish breakout. The pair is testing a previous low at 1.3440 which sits along the 30-day moving average. There could be buying interest in this congestion area after the RSI plunged into the oversold band. 1.3570 is now a fresh resistance, then the bulls will need to lift 1.3660 before they could turn sentiment around. On the other hand, a deeper correction may send the price to 1.3400. AUDUSD in bearish reversal The Australian dollar recovered after the Q4 CPI beat expectations. However, the latest rally took a bearish turn after the price slipped below 0.7170. The lack of commitment to hold onto recent gains suggests a weak risk appetite. A fall below the daily support at 0.7130 further weighs on the Aussie and prompts buyers to bail out. The RSI’s oversold situation helped lift the pair temporarily. Nonetheless, the bears might be eager to sell into strength near 0.7210. 0.7080 would be the next stop as the trend turns south. GER 40 tests critical support The Dax 40 plunges amid rising tensions in Ukraine. The index has given up all gains from the rebound in late December and cut through the major demand zone around 15070. The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation attracted a buying-the-dips crowd. Nevertheless, there is no sign of improvement in the market mood. And price action has not stabilized yet. A grind of last October’s low at 14820 would test the bulls’ resolve in the medium-term. On the upside, 15600 is the first hurdle to lift.

  The S&P 500 index was trading 4% lower yesterday before closing 0.3% higher. So was it an upward reversal or just another temporary bottom? The broad stock market index accelerated its sell-off on Monday, as it reached the new local low of 4,222.62. The market was 596 points or 12.4% below the Jan. 4 record high of 4,818.62. Investors reacted to further Russia-Ukraine tensions. We are also waiting for series of quarterly earnings releases, tomorrow’s FOMC Statement release and Thursday’s important U.S. Advance GDP release. Overall, we had a big increase in volatility yesterday. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. This morning it is expected to open 1.6% lower and we may see more short-term volatility. Will it reach yesterday’s low again? Probably not – we’ll likely see a consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,420-4,450, marked by yesterday’s daily high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350. The support level is also at 4,220-4,250. The S&P 500 remains below a steep short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Microsoft Stocks Ahead of the Earnings Release Microsoft (MSFT) will release its quarterly earnings today after the session’s close. It’s an important stock, as it weighs 6.0%, just after the Apple’s 6.7%. So, the S&P 500 traders will be watching that release very closely. Microsoft accelerated its sell-off yesterday and it fell to the local low of $276.05. It was 21% below the Nov. 22 record high of $349.67. The stock remains below the downward trend line, but we can see some clear short-term oversold conditions. Let’s take a look at the Microsoft’s monthly chart. The stock broke below its multi-year hyperbolic run marked by the thick blue curve. The chart is logarithmic, and we can see an enormous rally that took place since 2013. The breakdown may lead to a change in trend or some medium- or long-term consolidation. It looks like a multi-year bull run is over. Futures Contract Got Close to the 4,200 Level Yesterday The S&P 500 futures contract accelerated its downtrend yesterday, as it fell close to the 4,200 level. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far, however there are some downtrend exhaustion signals. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index accelerated its sell-off yesterday and at some point it was 4% lower! But the market rebounded sharply following a “V” pattern reversal and it closed 0.3% higher. This morning it is expected to open 1.6% lower and we may see some further volatility. The coming quarterly earnings releases (MSFT on Tuesday, TSLA on Wednesday and AAPL on Thursday, among others) remain a bullish factor for stocks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Investors are also waiting for tomorrow’s Fed release and Thursday’s U.S. Advance GPD number release. If you want to be in the loop about any future market changes (with instant mail notifications!) sign up for the newsletter here. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open lower again; we may see a consolidation. Opening a speculative long position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Tough call as select S&P 500 sectors came back to life, but credit markets are a bit inconclusive. Some more selling today before seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around). VIX looks to have topped yesterday, and coupled with the commodities and precious metals relative resilience (don‘t look at cryptos where I took sizable short profits in both Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday), sends a signal of upcoming good couple of dozen points rebound in the S&P 500. Taking a correct view at the hightened, emotional market slide yesterday, is through the portfolio performance – as you can see via clicking the link, yesterday‘s setup needn‘t and shouldn‘t be anyone‘s make or break situation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers stepped in, and carving out a nice lower knot today is the minimum expectation that the bulls can have. The reversal is still very young and vulnerable. Credit Markets HYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – there is just a marginal daily outperformance of quality debt instruments. More is needed. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are only pausing – in spite of the miners move to the downside at the moment. HUI and GDX will catch up – they‘re practically primed to do so over the medium-term. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are still getting tested, and oil stocks stabilized on a daily basis. Some downside still remains, but nothing dramatic – the volume didn‘t even rise yesterday. Copper Copper declined, but didn‘t meaningfully lead lower – the downswing was actually bought, and low 4.40s look to be well defended at the moment. More fear striking, would change the picture, but we aren‘t there yet. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum reversed, but in spire of the volume, look to need more time to bottom out – and I wouldn‘t be surprised if that included another decline. Summary S&P 500 bulls would get tested today again, and at least a draw would be a positive result, as yesterday‘s tech upswing is more likely to be continued tomorrow than today – that‘s how it usually goes after sizable (think 5%) range days. The table is set for an upside surprise on FOMC tomorrow – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals, and the coming S&P 500 upswing looks to be a worthwhile opportunity in the making, too – on a short-term and nimble basis. So, I‘m more in the glass half full camp going into tomorrow. Anyway, let‘s take the portfolio view discussed in the opening part of today‘s article. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

GameStop stock crashes but recovers in the afternoon. GameStop shares close nearly 6% lower on Monday. GME shares remain top of WallStreetBets interest list. GameStop (GME) stock likes volatility, and meme traders should certainly be used to it by now, but perhaps not the type that was evident yesterday. GameStop shares crashed below $100 and kept on going before a broad-based afternoon rally helped GME stock recover to close just above the psychological $100 level. GameStop Stock News Again we find ourselves writing about a stock with significant movement based solely on price action. There is little in the way of actual hard news flow. GameStop stock has not had a good start to the year, but despite this it remains one of the top trending stocks across most social media platforms. This has partly to do with loyalty and partly to do with the one-year anniversary of the GameStop saga. However, for the most part traders are fixated on the big picture theme of us versus them that captured the whole argument. GameStop is now down over 30% so far in 2022. GameStop Stock Forecast We remain bearish on this one, which I know many loyal holders may not want to hear. We have to focus on the chart and what we can take from that. Loyalty, if not profitable, is pointless to a trader. Emotion should always be controlled. Breaking $100 was psychological and led to some stops likely triggering. We had identified $86 as strong support for the last few weeks, and GME shares more or less bounced perfectly from it yesterday. GME stock bottomed out at $86.29, so we can take some kudos for that. But now where? Holding $86 was actually pretty important as below is a big volume gap that would likely see an acceleration toward $70. Holding gives some hope of a rebound, but $118.59 remains the short-term pivot for us. Below here bears are in charge. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are both still following price lower, so there is no sign of any divergence or oversold conditions just yet. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

Bitcoin price is not yet ready for an uptrend as bulls cannot keep price above $36,709. Although BTC price posted a bullish candle yesterday, investors are still concerned and cannot look beyond the FED meeting tomorrow. BTC could shed another 10% towards $32,649 before investors go in massively for the long. Bitcoin (BTC) price is still not yet set for a rebound as bears can trip bulls and push the price back below the pivotal level at $36,709. As markets are trying to catch a breather, it does not look like bears will be going away that easily and could pressure BTC price action to the downside. Expect a nervous session to unfold with price swinging back and forth at that pivotal level, but ultimately likely to break to the downside towards $32,649, with a loss of 10% on the day. Bitcoin price is set for a nervous session Bitcoin saw bulls coming in strong once price action slipped briefly below the monthly S2 at $33,742. Bulls bought everything in sight and pushed price action back up above $36,709 but failed to safely position the trade for a further uptick in the coming trading session. As BTC price is already undergoing some profit-taking, it looks as if investors are still awaiting confirmation that the pain trade is over. BTC price will probably trade a nervous session today, as markets will want to wait for the FED meeting later tomorrow and will not want to preposition for the possibility the FED disappoints or delivers an even more hawkish message. Expect choppy price action around $36,709, and possibly another leg lower towards the monthly S2 at $33,742. A test and break below yesterday's low at $32,649 is not an impossibility if Nasdaq sheds multiple percentages points off its value again. BTC/USD daily chart If global sentiment changes and pushes US equities in the green later this afternoon, expect a bullish flood to come into cryptocurrencies. That would see BTC price testing $39,780 to the upside with the monthly S1 support as resistance from any upside. If the rally is large and broad, expect even $44,088 to be on the cards, and for that to erase a large part of the downturn since the beginning of this year.

  The World Gold Council believes that gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 to those of last year. Well, I’m not so sure about it. Have you ever had the feeling that all of this has already happened and you are in a time loop, repeating Groundhog Day? I have. For instance, I’m pretty sure that I have already written the Fundamental Gold Report with a reference to pop-culture before… Anyway, I’m asking you this, because the World Gold Council warns us against the whole groundhog year for the gold market. In its “Gold Outlook 2022,” the gold industry organization writes that “gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 to those of last year.” The reason is that in 2021, gold was under the influence of two competing forces. These factors were the increasing interest rates and rising inflation, especially strong in operation in the second half of the year, which resulted in the sideways trend in the gold market, as the chart below shows. The WGC sees a similar tug of war in 2022: the hikes in the federal funds rate could create downward pressure for gold, but at the same time, elevated inflation will likely create a tailwind for gold. The WGC acknowledges that the ongoing tightening of monetary policy can be an important headwind for gold. However, it notes two important caveats. First, the Fed has a clear dovish bias and often overpromises when it comes to hawkish actions. For example, in the previous tightening cycle, “the Fed has tended not to tighten monetary policy as aggressively as members of the committee had initially expected.” Second, financial market expectations are more important for gold prices than actual events. As a result, “gold has historically underperformed in the months leading up to a Fed tightening cycle, only to significantly outperform in the months following the first rate hike.” I totally agree. I emphasized many times the Fed’s dovish bias and that the actual interest rate hikes could be actually better for gold than their prospects. After all, gold bottomed out in December 2015, when the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since the Great Recession. I also concur with the WGC that inflation may linger this year. Expectations that inflation will quickly dissipate are clearly too optimistic. As China is trying right now to contain the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, supply chain disruptions may worsen, contributing to elevated inflation. However, although I expect inflation to remain high, I believe that it will cool down in 2022. If so, the real interest rates are likely to increase, creating a downward pressure on gold prices. I also believe that the WGC is too optimistic when it comes to the real interest rates and their impact on the yellow metal. According to the report, despite the rate hikes, the real interest rates will stay low from a historical perspective, supporting gold prices. Although true, investors should remember that changes in economic variables are usually more important than their levels. Hence, the rebound in interest rates may still be harmful for the precious metals.   Implications for Gold What should be expected for gold in 2022? Will this year be similar to 2021? Well, just like last year, gold will find itself caught between a hawkish Fed and high inflation. Hence, some similarities are possible. However, in reality, we are not in a time loop and don’t have to report on Groundhog Day (phew, what a relief!). The arrow of time continues its inexorable movement into the future. Thus, market conditions evolve and history never repeats itself, but only rhymes. Thus, I bet that 2022 will be different than 2021 for gold, and we will see more volatility this year. In our particular situation, the mere expectations of a more hawkish Fed are evolving into actual actions. This is good news for the gold market, although the likely peak in inflation and normalization of real interest rates could be an important headwind for gold this year. Tomorrow, we will get to know the FOMC’s first decision on monetary policy this year, which could shake the gold market but also provide more clues for the future. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Apple reports earnings after the close on Thursday.With the Fed out of the way, the road is cleared for the stock superpower.AAPL could help turn the entire market sentiment after Microsoft beat. Apple is due to report earnings after the close on Thursday. With the Fed meeting ending today, investors will then focus on the tech sector to hopefully end the bearish mood currently hitting markets. Tech names along with a not-too-surprising Fed (https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed) could turn things around. Sentiment is beginning to look overdone, but it is imperative to get solid earnings from the tech sector. So far the bank sector has disappointed, while the energy sector looks like it should outperform. This week as we mentioned in our preview note is key with 104 of the S&P 500 companies reporting. Apple Stock NewsApple reports after the close on Thursday, January 27. Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to come in at $1.89 on revenue of $118.28 billion. Wall Street analysts also expect Apple to have sold 80 million iPhones in the last quarter. Bank of America certainly is looking to the upside as it outlines in a note out this morning. The bank sees iPhone sales coming in at 81 million and sees a strong revenue number of $121 million, well ahead of forecasts. Analysts have been active this week on the name ahead of earnings. Earlier we reported on Goldman Sachs maintaining their $142 price target ahead of earnings, while Morgan Stanley expects strong iPhone deliveries to maintain bullish earnings.As ever the commentary around earnings will be as important as the earnings themselves. Last time out the dreaded supply chain and chip issues came to light, so we will look for more clarity around these areas.Apple Stock Forecast$157 is big, very big. A break and it likely heads to $148, which is a huge volume profile support and the point of control. But breaking $157 does put in a new lower low and so continue the downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) both look quite stretched, but the RSI is not yet oversold. The MACD, meanwhile, is at its lowest since March of last year, and the histogram is also at its widest in a year. Earnings then could be the catalyst to turn this trend around. Apple (AAPL) chart, daily

Glass half full call on S&P 500 yesterday was vindicated – this yet another reversal has the power to go on, and credit markets appear sniffing out the upcoming reprieve. While rates have justifiably risen, they have done so quite fast in Jan – time to calm down and reprice the excessively hawkish Fed fears. Even if it was just energy and financials that rose yesterday, the table is set for gains across many assets – just check the progress from yesterday‘s already optimistic upturn, or the already fine early view of yesterday‘s market internals.VIX is calming down, Fed is unlikely to rock the boat too much – such were my yesterday‘s thoughts about:(…) seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).The sizable open profits – whether in S&P 500 or crude oil – can keep on growing while gold slowly approaches $1,870 again (look for a good day today), and copper stabilizes above $4.50 to keep pushing higher even if not yet outperforming other commodities. More dry firepowder and fresh profits ahead anywhere I look – even cryptos are to enjoy the unfolding risk-on upswing.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis is what a tradable S&P 500 bottom looks like – just as it was most likely to turn out. After the 200-day moving average, 4,500 point of control is the next target.Credit MarketsHYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – this is how a budding reversal looks like, especially since the selling hasn‘t picked up ahead of the Fed. Turning already.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver pause was barely noticeable – it‘s a great sight of upcoming strength in the metals while miners unfortunately would continue underperforming to a degree, i.e. not leading decisively.Crude OilCrude oil bulls are back, how did you like the pause? The ride higher isn‘t over by a long shot, and I like the volume of late being this much aligned.CopperCopper looks to be catching breath before another (modest but still) upswing. The buyers aren‘t yet rushing headlong.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum reversed, and are participating in the risk-on upturn, with Ethereum sending out quite nice short-term signs. From the overall portfolio view and upcoming volatility though, I would prefer to wait before making any move here.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood yesterday‘s test, and are well positioned to extend gains, especially on the upcoming well received FOMC statement and soothing press conference. It had also turned out that a tech upswing is more likely to be continued today than yesterday – the Fed‘s words would calm down bonds, and that would enable a better Nasdaq upswing.As I wrote yesterday, the table is set for an upside FOMC surprise – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals – and I would add today once again in a while that real assets upswing would coincide with the dollar moving lower later today (check those upper knots of late). So far so good in risk-on, inflation trades – and things will get even better as my regular readers know (I can‘t underline how much you can benefit from regularly reading the full analyses as these are about how I arrive at the profitable conclusions presented & how you can twist them to your own purposes).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Binance Coin has been range trading for the past four days between $335 and $389. BNB price shows bulls pushing bears against the high of this week, ready for a breakout. Expect bears to be stopped out and open momentum for bulls to run the price up to $452. Binance Coin (BNB) price was able to find a floor at $335 with the monthly S2 monthly support level as an area where bulls were interested in getting involved in the price action. BNB price is now quickly ramping up and squeezing bears out of their entries at $389, which is acting as the weekly high. With the squeeze, a pop is set to unfold towards $452, the first significant level of resistance that could halt the rally near-term. BNB price set for a bullish breakout Binance Coin sees bulls trading away from the monthly S2 support level at $335 tested twice and bulls jumping on the buying volume to get involved in the price action. Backed by the green ascending trendline, a bullish entry makes sense as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has just exited oversold territory. As such, sellers do not have much incentive to stay further in their short positions as further gains look limited for now. BNB price thus offers a solid entry point, and bulls are now ready to break above $389, the weekly high and short-term cap that has kept BNB price limited to the upside this week. As bears are being pushed against that level, expect their stops to be run once bulls break above it, which will trigger a massive demand for buying volume and squeeze price action even higher. The monthly S1 does not hold much historical reference, so $452 makes the most sense with the 200-day Simple Moving Average just above as a cap, that needs to be broken to start speaking of an uptrend. BNB/USD daily chart In the wake of the Fed meeting later today, most investors will be holding their breath further into the afternoon. If the Fed delivers a hawkish tone or even hike today, that will set a negative tone for global markets and see a sharp decline in risk assets led by equities and cryptocurrencies. Expect BNB price action to result in bulls being pushed against the monthly S2 support and the green ascending trend line around $320-$335.

USDCAD breaks higherThe Canadian dollar slipped after the BOC kept interest rates unchanged. Its US counterpart found support at 1.2560 after a brief pullback.An oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters. The current rebound is a sign that there is a strong interest in pushing for a bullish reversal. 1.2700 is a key supply zone as it coincides with the 30-day moving average.A breakout would definitely turn sentiment around and trigger a runaway rally. In turn, this sets the daily resistance at 1.2810 as the next target.NZDUSD continues lowerThe New Zealand dollar steadied after the Q4 CPI beat expectations.However, the pair is still in bearish territory after it broke below the lower end (0.6750) of the flag consolidation from the daily time frame. The RSI’s oversold situation brought in a buying-the-dips crowd around 0.6660 but its breach indicates a lack of buying interest.The kiwi is now testing November 2020’s low at 0.6600. The bears could be waiting to fade the next bounce with 0.6700 as a fresh resistance.XAUUSD pulls back for supportGold tumbled after the US Fed signaled it may raise interest rates in March. The rally stalled at 1853 and a break below the resistance-turned-support at 1830 flushed some buyers out.1810 at the base of the previous bullish breakout is a second line of defense. The short-term uptrend may still be intact as long as the metal stays above this key support.A deeper correction would drive the price down to the daily support at 1785. The bulls need a rebound above 1838 to regain control of price action.

Wild FOMC day is over, and markets are repricing the perceived fresh hawkishness when there was none really. It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation – as the Fed just stood pat, open oil profits are rising.But stocks took a dive before recovering, carving out a fourth in a row lower knot – the bulls are invited to participate, and open stock market profits are moving up again. Also note the divergence between HYG trading at its recent lows while S&P 500 clearly isn‘t. The immediate pressure would be to go higher, and that concerns also copper, and to a smaller degree cryptos. All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity.That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookSetback and reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is though still carving out a tradable bottom. I‘m looking for the index to return above 4,400 and then take on the 4,500 point of control next.Credit MarketsHYG reversed, the panic is there – higher yields across the board without a clear risk-on turn holding. Today is a time for reprieve.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge. The metals are anticipating the upcoming liquidity squeeze, which won‘t be pretty until the Fed changes course. Not that it truly started, for that matter.Crude OilCrude oil bulls have confirmed they were back, and are ready for more – clearly not daunted by the Fed messaging, and that has implications for inflation ahead. It would really be more persistent than generally appreciated, I‘m telling you.CopperCopper is still in the catching breath phase – not yielding, and that‘s still saying something about inflation and real economy.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are on guard, and ready to move somewhat higher next – for now, lacking conviction, there is no Ethereum outperformance either.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are ready to come back, and prove that the first FOMC move, is the fake one – no, I don‘t mean the moonshot to 4,450 in the first moments. That would be the move I‘m looking for still, and it would be led by the coming tech upswing. Check the commodities resilience to the rising rates prospects – gold and silver need a reprieve in bonds badly to catch breath again, and it would come at the expense of the dollar. For now, markets are afraid of the looming liquidity crunch and Fed policy mistake as the yield curve continues compressing.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The Fed finally said it: the rates are going up. The USD Index and gold heard it and reacted. The former is at new yearly highs, while gold slides. The medium-term outlook for gold is now extremely bearish. The above might sound like a gloom and doom scenario for precious metals investors, but I view it as particularly favorable. Why? Because: This situation allows us to profit on the upcoming decline in the precious metals sector through trading capital. This situation allows us to detect a great buying entry point in the future. When gold has everything against it and then it manages to remain strong – it will be exactly the moment to buy it. To be more precise: to buy into the precious metals sector (I plan to focus on purchasing mining stocks first as they tend to be strongest during initial parts of major rallies). At that moment PMs will be strong and the situation will be so bad that it can only improve from there – thus contributing to higher PM prices in the following months. Most market participants have not realized the above. “Gold and (especially) silver can only go higher!” is still a common narrative on various forums. Having said that, let’s take a look at the short-term charts. In short, gold declined significantly, and it’s now trading once again below the rising support / resistance line, the declining red resistance line, and back below 2021 closing price (taking also today’s pre-market decline into account). In other words: All important short-term breakouts were just invalidated. The 2022 is once again a down year for gold. Is this as bearish as it gets for gold? Well, there could be some extra bearish things that could happen, but it’s already very, very bearish right now. For example, gold market could catch-up with its reactions to USD Index’s strength. The U.S. currency just moved above its previous 2022 and 2021 highs, while gold is not at its 2021 lows. Yet. I wouldn’t view gold’s performance as true strength against the USD Index at this time just yet. Why? Because of the huge consolidation that gold has been trading in. The strength that I want to see in gold is its ability not to fall or soar back up despite everything thrown against it, not because it’s stuck in a trading range. In analogy, you’ve probably seen someone, who’s able to hold their ground, and not give up despite the world throwing every harm and obstacle at them. They show their character. They show their strength. Inaction could represent greater wisdom and/or love and focus on one’s goal that was associated with the lack of action. You probably know someone like that. You might be someone like that. The above “inaction” is very different from “inaction” resulting from someone not knowing what to do, not having enough energy, or willpower. Since markets are ultimately created by people (or algorithms that were… ultimately still created by people) is it any surprise that markets tend to work in the same way? One inaction doesn’t equal another inaction, and – as always – context matters. However, wasn’t gold strong against the USD Index’s strength in 2021? It was, but it was very weak compared to the ridiculous amounts of money that were printed in 2020 and 2021 and given the global pandemic. These are the circumstances, where gold “should be” soaring well above its 2011 highs, not invalidating the breakout above it. The latter, not the former, happened. Besides, the “strength” was present practically only in gold. Silver and miners remain well below their 2011 highs – they are not even close to them and didn’t move close to them at any point in 2020 or 2021. Gold has been consolidating for many months now, just like it’s been the case between 2011 and 2013. The upper part of the above chart features the width of the Bollinger Bands – I didn’t mark them on the chart to keep it clear, but the important detail is that whenever their width gets very low, it means that the volatility has been very low in the previous months, and that it’s about to change. I marked those cases with vertical dashed lines when the big declines in the indicator took it to or close to the horizontal, red, dashed line. In particular, the 2011-2013 decline is similar to the current situation. What does it mean? It means that gold wasn’t really showing strength – it was stuck. Just like 2012 wasn’t a pause before a bigger rally, the 2021 performance of gold shouldn’t be viewed as such. What happened yesterday showed that gold can and will likely react to hawkish comments from the Fed, that the USD Index is likely to rally and so are the interest rates. The outlook for gold in the medium term is not bullish, but very bearish. The above is a positive for practically everyone interested in the precious metals market (except for those who sell at the bottom that is), as it will allow one to add to their positions (or start building them) at much lower prices. And some will likely (I can’t guarantee any performance, of course) gain small (or not so small) fortunes by being positioned to take advantage of the upcoming slide. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDJPY tests major resistance The Japanese yen inched higher after January’s Tokyo CPI beat expectations. The US dollar found support in the daily demand zone around 113.50. And that is a sign that upbeat sentiment in the medium-term remains intact. A close above the psychological level of 115.00 attracted momentum traders and sped up the rebound. 115.60 at the origin of the January liquidation is key resistance. In fact, its breach could put the uptrend back on track. The RSI’s overextension may cause a limited pullback with 114.50 as the closest support. USOIL breaks to new high Oil climbed amid fears of disruption as tensions between Russia and the West grew. After a short-lived pause, WTI crude saw bids near a previous low at 82.00 which lies on the 20-day moving average. A break above the January peak at 87.80 indicates solid interest in keeping the rally in shape. As the bulls’ run continued, more trend-followers would push the price to 89.00. An overbought RSI temporarily restrained the fever, and buyers could see a pullback towards 85.00 as an opportunity. SPX 500 struggles for support Upcoming US rate hike still weighs on equity markets. A tentative break below last October’s low (4300) has put the S&P 500 on the defense. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart shows that sentiment could be deteriorating as price action struggles to stabilize. An oversold RSI led to a limited rebound as intraday sellers took profit. Nonetheless, buyers should be wary of catching a falling knife, leaving the index vulnerable to another sell-off if it drops below 4230. 4490 is the first resistance to clear to initiate a recovery.

The year 2022 is seemingly a mixed bag, even as markets start reopening. The year looks promising, though, with issues like inflation and COVID to contemplate. Historic rallies in 2021 after lockdowns are looking to inspire trading in various industries, with some assets to look out for by investors. Growth will surely return at some point, but so will disappointing instances where tumbles will dominate trading desks. The S & P's historic gains of 30 percent dominated the press at the close of 2021, making investors using Naga and other optimistic platforms. The ended year had one of the longest bull markets. However, the Fed rate tightening and the direction the pandemic will take are some things to expect, notwithstanding that the stock market might grow by a whopping 10 percent in 2022. Trading Movements In Week One 2022 European markets have opened with a lot of optimism in 2022, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed at 489.99 points; this is 0.5 percent higher than the opening figure. The European benchmark was some percentage lower than the overall S&P 2021 performance, though with a surge of 22.4 percent. Record gains in the stock markets have relied on the positions taken by the governments during the pandemic. In the USA and Europe, increasing vaccination rates and economic stimulus measures have improved investor confidence. However, there are indications for more volatility in 2022, a situation investors must watch keenly. There has been little activity in London markets in the first week of 2022, while in Italy, France, and Spain gains of between 0.5-1.4 percent made notable highlights. European markets had diverse industries drive up the closing gains witnessed; the airline sector, in particular, has had a significant influence. Germany’s Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) had an impressive 8.8 percent jump while Air France KLM (AIRF.PA), a 4.9 percent gain. Factory activity is another factor to thank for the first week's gains all over Europe. Noteworthy, the Omicron variant influenced trading in the entirety of December, but the reports that it is milder than Delta has energized market activities coming into January. S&P and DOW Jones 2022 First Week Highs Across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a record high, highlighting a similar aggressiveness as the European markets. While the jump was industrial-wide, Tech stocks continued to dominate, as Apple finally touched the $3 trillion valuation, though for a short time. Tesla Inc. (TSLA.O) posted a 13.5 percent jump thanks to increased production in China and an unprecedented goal to surpass its target. The US market, like the European market, is also in a fix; the Omicron variant of COVID-19 continues to cause concern with the wait-and-see approach, the only notable strategy. Currently, every country is reporting a jump in the number of Covid cases, with the UK going above 100K cases for the first time and the US recording some new records as well. School delays and increased isolation by key workers will surely debilitate the markets, with the global chip shortage another point to contemplate. However, markets can still ride on the increased development of therapies to help fight Covid. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (CDC) has been quick, as now children can have their third doses as well. Industries to Look Out For In 2022 European automakers have seen early peaks, while the airline sector has also picked up fast. In the US, tech shares continue to dominate, and 2022 might witness new records never seen before. However, the energy sectors have also dominated the news in 2021, and in 2022; the confidence in them will continue to rise because of an anticipation of stabilization in energy prices. The same goes for crude oil prices. Regardless, shareholders will continue watching the decisions by the Federal Reserve, a review in the current interest rates will surely tame inflation. Conclusion 2022 will see its highs and lows in investments. Some assets will make the news and investors will be keen to use any information to make key decisions. Tech will continue to shine, but it is important to anticipate the direction of the pandemic, as it will be an important factor in investor decisions.

The US dollar rewrote its 1.5-year highs on Thursday, sending EURUSD under 1.1150. After the FOMC meeting, the pair fell in total by 1.5%, leaving a two-month consolidation with a sharp movement. Friday's small rollback from extremes is likely a local profit fixation by the end of the week and month. History suggests that the US currency begins to add about 2-3 quarters before the first rate hike and continues to be in positive territory for about the same time after. We believe that this long story should be adjusted to the new reality in which interest rates are the starting point. Namely, the first point of tightening monetary conditions is now the beginning of the curtailment of purchases on the balance sheet and not the first increase. The start of the dollar's growth last year was the beginning of a public discussion of curtailment. And now, seven months later, the dollar is halfway up with an 8.5% increase from the area of last year's lows. The second half of this wave is unlikely to be as powerful. We only assume that the dollar has a 3-4% growth potential in the area of 100.3-101 due to monetary policy changes. This will return the US currency to the area of steady highs in 2020, excluding two weeks of the most violent market crash. The EURUSD rate in this scenario may fall to 1.07-1.08 before finding a more substantial base of buyers. However, investors and traders should also remember that monetary policy is far from the only driver for currencies. The markets' attention can quickly switch to the debt sustainability of the Eurozone countries and the pace of economic recovery in the world.

Tesla stock swung around violently post the earnings release. TSLA shares quickly dropped 6% despite beating earnings estimates. Tesla then recovered to trade down 2% as buyers stepped in. Tesla (TSLA) swung around pretty wildly in the after-hours market on Wednesday following its earnings release. The stock dropped 6% fairly rapidly despite beating on the top and bottom lines. Buyers then went bargain hunting as the market struggled to grasp what metric to focus on. By the time things settled down, we were nearly back to where things started. At the time of writing, Tesla is back to $930 in the premarket on Thursday, so only $7 or less than 1% lower from where Tesla stock was trading at the close of the regular session and before the earnings drop. Tesla Stock News Tesla beat on earnings per share (EPS), coming in at $2.54 versus the $2.26 average estimate. Revenue also beat forecasts, coming in at $17.72 billion versus the $16.35 billion estimate. This was a pretty strong performance beat on both top and bottom lines. Margins also held up well, coming in at 30.8% versus estimates for 30%. So far so good. However, Tesla then mentioned that its factories were not at full capacity and it saw this continuing into 2022. Supply chain issues were to blame, and investors took a dim view of this and sold the stock sharply lower. However, buyers then stepped in as arguments over demand versus supply issues surfaced. The demand profile remains strong and Tesla stuck to its strong outlook for demand going forward. If it can address supply issues and with new factories in Texas and Berlin coming on line, it may be in a position to drive more supply to meet demand. It is certainly better to have a problem meeting demand than it is to have a lack of demand. This is a case of "if you build it, they will come" for Tesla going forward. Tesla Stock Forecast TSLA bottomed out at $879 after the release, but in reality it spent very little time down there. This is interesting to us on a technical view as it prints a higher low than Monday's sell-off and puts in place the potential for a bottoming formation. From the 4-hour chart below we can see this price action in play. The lows from Monday at $855 are our short-term pivot. Above there things have a chance to turn bullish in a more medium-term view. Below and it is on to $813 to test the 200-day moving average. Tesla chart, 4 hourly

The recent Fed comments should have helped settle the global market expectations related to if and when the Fed will start raising rates and/or taking further steps to curb inflation trends. Additionally, the Fed has been telegraphing its intentions very clearly over the past few months, providing ample time for traders and investors to alter their approach to pending monetary tightening actions. Read the full Fed Statement here.In my opinion, foreign markets are more likely to see increased risks and declining price trends for two reasons. First, at-risk nations/borrowers struggle to reduce debt levels. Second, foreign market traders/investors struggle to adapt to the transition away from speculative “growth” trends. I think the US Dollar may continue to show strength over the next 4+ months as the foreign traders pile into US economic strength while the Fed initiates their tightening actions. So it makes sense to me that global markets would recoil from Fed tightening while debt-heavy corporations/nations seek relief from rising debt obligations.Foreign Markets Struggle For Support Before US Fed Monetary TighteningIn a continuing downward slide, global market equity indexes continue to move lower after the US Fed comments this week. In this article, I wrote about this dynamic on August 3, 2021: US Markets Stall Near End Of July As Global Markets Retreat - Are We Ready For An August Surprise? At that time, I suggested the US markets were stalling while the global markets continued to decline.Now, nearly five months later, we've seen the US market trend moderately higher, attempting to struggle to new highs and exhibit deep downward price trends, while the global markets have continued to trend lower. As we move closer to the US Fed pushing interest rates higher, I expect these trends to become even more volatile and pronounced.US Equities May Find Support After The Fed Raises RatesThe current dynamic in the global markets is that capital is seeking investments where safety and profitable returns dominate over risks. As the global markets transition ahead of the Fed rate increases, I believe the US markets will continue to dominate global assets in opportunities, safety, and returns. Once the Fed starts to raise interest rates, a brief period of volatility throughout the global markets may occur. Still, that volatility should quickly settle as traders chase a stronger US Dollar, US Dollar-based Dividends, and a potential “melt-up” of the US Equity market (particularly the Dow Jones, S&P500, and possibly the Russell 2000).Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!Unless the US Fed takes very aggressive action in raising rates too quickly, I believe, at least initially, the US equity markets will continue to benefit from perceived strengths compared to many global equities/indexes.This means there will be many opportunities for traders and investors in 2022 and 2023 – we have to be patient in waiting for the chance to profit from these big trends. Jumping ahead of this volatility could be dangerous if you are on the wrong side of the price trend. Instead, wait for the right opportunities while you protect your capital from extreme risks. Let the markets tell you when opportunities are perfect – don't try to force a trade to happen.On December 28, 2021, I published this research article showing how my Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Predictive Modeling system expects price to trend in 2022 and early 2023: Predictive Modeling Suggests 710 Rally In SPY And QQQ Before April 2022. I strongly suggest taking a look at the recent downside price trends in relation to the lower range of the ADL Predictive Modeling expectations. If my ADL Predictive Modeling system is accurate, we may see a relatively strong recovery in the US stock market throughout the rest of 2022 and beyond.Strategies To Help You Protect And Grow Your WealthLearn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

  Despite death wishes from the doubters, the dollar took to the skies on the Fed’s hawkish wings. Gold and silver can wave from the ground for now. While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell threw fuel on the fire on Jan. 26, it’s no surprise that the USD Index has rallied to new highs. For example, while dollar bears feasted on false narratives in 2021, I was a lonely bull forecasting higher index values. Likewise, after more doubts emerged in 2022, the death of the dollar narrative resurfaced once again. However, with the charts signaling a bullish outcome for some time, my initial target of 94.5 was surpassed and my next target of 98 is near. As such, it’s crucial to avoid speculation and wait for confirmation of breakdowns and breakouts. In its absence, the price action often pulls you in the wrong direction. Remember the supposedly bearish move below 95 when the USD Index moved even below its rising support line? It’s been just 2 weeks since that development. On Jan. 14, I wrote the following: In conclusion, 2022 looks a lot like 2021: dollar bears are out in full force and the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative has resurfaced once again. However, with the greenback’s 2021 ascent catching many investors by surprise, another re-enactment will likely materialize in 2022. Moreover, since gold, silver, and mining stocks often move inversely to the U.S. dollar, their 2022 performances may surprise for all of the wrong reasons. As such, while the dollar’s despondence is bullish for the precious metals, a reversal of fortunes will likely occur over the medium term. Given yesterday’s reversal in the USD Index, it’s likely also from the short-term point of view – we could see the reversal and the return of the USD’s rally and PMs’ decline any day or hour now. Fortunately, if you’ve been following my analyses, the recent price moves didn’t catch you by surprise. What’s next? While the USD Index still needs to confirm the recent breakout and some consolidation may ensue, the bullish medium-term thesis remains intact. More importantly, though, the USD Index’s gain has resulted in gold, silver, and mining stocks’ pain. For example, the dollar’s surge helped push gold below its short-and-medium-term rising support lines (the upward sloping red lines on the bottom half of the above chart). However, since the USD Index hit a new high and gold didn’t hit a new low, is the development bullish for the yellow metal? To answer, I wrote on Jan. 27: The U.S. currency just moved above its previous 2022 and 2021 highs, while gold is not at its 2021 lows. Yet. I wouldn’t view gold’s performance as true strength against the USD Index at this time just yet. Why? Because of the huge consolidation that gold has been trading in. The strength that I want to see in gold is its ability not to fall or soar back up despite everything thrown against it, not because it’s stuck in a trading range. In analogy, you’ve probably seen someone, who’s able to hold their ground, and not give up despite the world throwing every harm and obstacle at them. They show their character. They show their strength. Inaction could represent greater wisdom and/or love and focus on one’s goal that was associated with the lack of action. You probably know someone like that. You might be someone like that. The above “inaction” is very different from “inaction” resulting from someone not knowing what to do, not having enough energy, or willpower. Since markets are ultimately created by people (or algorithms that were… ultimately still created by people) is it any surprise that markets tend to work in the same way? One inaction doesn’t equal another inaction, and – as always – context matters. However, wasn’t gold strong against the USD Index’s strength in 2021? It was, but it was very weak compared to the ridiculous amounts of money that were printed in 2020 and 2021 and given the global pandemic. These are the circumstances, where gold “should be” soaring well above its 2011 highs, not invalidating the breakout above it. The latter, not the former, happened. Besides, the “strength” was present practically only in gold. Silver and miners remain well below their 2011 highs – they are not even close to them and didn’t move close to them at any point in 2020 or 2021. The Eye in the Sky Doesn’t Lie Moreover, if we zoom out and focus our attention on the USD Index’s weekly chart, the price action has unfolded exactly as I expected. For example, while overbought conditions resulted in a short-term breather, the USD Index consolidated for a few weeks. However, history shows that the greenback eventually catches its second wind. To explain, I previously wrote: I marked additional situations on the chart below with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or those of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie, and with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. While very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98-101 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon) Mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone. The EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the USD Index’s ascent has surprised investors. However, if you’ve been following my analysis, you know that I’ve been expecting these moves for over a year. Moreover, with the rally poised to persist, gold, silver, and mining stocks may struggle before they reach lasting bottoms. However, with long-term buying opportunities likely to materialize later in 2022, the precious metals should soar to new heights in the coming years. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 upswing attempt rejected, again – and credit markets didn‘t pause, with the dollar rush being truly ominous. Sign of both the Fed being taken seriously, and of being afraid (positioned for) the adverse tightening consequences. Bonds are bleeding, the yield curve flattening, and VIX having trouble declining. As stated yesterday: (...) It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation. Not even the shock and awe 50bp hike in Mar would make a dent as crude oil prices virtually guarantee inflation persistence beyond 2022. The red hot Treasury and dollar markets are major headwinds as the S&P 500 is cooling off (in a very volatile way) for a major move. As we keep chopping between 4,330s and 4,270s, the bulls haven‘t been yet overpowered. I keep looking to bonds and USD for direction across all markets. I also wrote yesterday: (...) All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity. That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Another setback with reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is chopping in preparation for the upcoming move. Concerningly, the bears are overpowering the bulls on a daily basis increasingly more while Bollinger Bands cool down to accommodate the next move. Direction will be decided in bonds. Credit Markets HYG keeps collapsing but the volume is drying up, which means we could see a reprieve – happening though at lower levels than earlier this week. Quality debt instruments are pausing already, indicatively. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge, and TLT looks ready to pause. The metals keep chopping sideways in the early tightening phase, which is actually quite a feat. Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and its upswing looks ready to go on unimpeded, and that has implications for inflation ahead. Persistent breed, let me tell you. Copper Copper is in danger of losing some breath – the GDP growth downgrades aren‘t helping. The red metal though remains range bound, patiently waiting to break out. Will take time. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are pointing lower again, losing altitude – not yet a buying proposition. Summary S&P 500 bulls wasted another opportunity to come back – the FOMC consequences keep biting as fears of a hawkish Fed are growing. Tech still can‘t get its act together, and neither can bonds – these are the decisive factors for equities. As liquidity is getting scarce while the Fed hadn‘t really moved yet, risk-on assets are under pressure thanks to frontrunning the Fed. The room for a surprising rebound in stocks is however still there, given how well the 4,270s are holding in spite of the HYG plunge. And given the recent quality debt instruments pause, it looks approaching. Look for a dollar decline next to confirm the upcoming risk-on upswing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Apple stock surges after a strong earnings release. AAPL popped 2% on the numbers, and this move has continued. Apple could turn the entire market sentiment around. Apple (AAPL) dropped earnings after the close last night, and they amounted to a blow out. There had been some talk of record numbers and iPhone sales prior to the release, but this set of earnings surprised even the most bullish previews. The stock immediately popped 2% and stabilized but has since added another 2% to its after-market gains and is currently at $165.79 in Friday's premarket. This marks a 4% gain on the regular session close from Thursday. This big question is whether Apple (AAPL) can turn the entire market sentiment around. It is after all the biggest company in the world with the highest weighting in the main S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices. It certainly has the potential to call a bottom to this miserable start to 2022. Apple Stock News Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.10 versus the average estimate of $1.88. Revenue also beat estimates, hitting $123.9 billion versus $118.28 billion. The closely watched iPhone revenue number hit $71.63 billion and represents just under 58% of Apple's total revenue. Gross margins increased from 39.8% to 43.8% yearly. On the conference call post earnings, CEO Tim Cook said he sees this margin remaining strong in Q2 2022 to 43% at the midpoint of projections. However, the March quarter is traditionally the slowest of the year earnings wise due to the post-holiday season lull in sales activity. CFO Luca Maestri addressed the key question of supply chain issues, saying chip issues are only a problem for mostly older models and that problems have eased. Tim Cook said the supply chain is doing well. Overall, this was exactly what the market needed: blowout earnings with a significant beat. The earnings call offered strong revenue and most importantly positive commentary around the supply chain and semiconductor chip issues. We will likely see multiple analyst upgrades as the day progresses. Apple Stock Forecast This now becomes a key barometer for the broad market. AAPL should stabilize and appreciate further from here based on these results. If this current rally fails and fades, then truly we are entering a correction phase. For now, $157 remains key support. This is the high from September and also the 100-day moving average. Hold here and we can then target $167.63 and then onto record highs. Also note how the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold by traditional metrics at 30 (we prefer to use 20) and how the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also at lows with the histogram at the widest we have seen for some time. All of these are indicators of oversold conditions. Everything looks set up for a turnaround. The only caveat is the overall market sentiment. Apple (AAPL) chart, daily

Decentraland price looks to be set to close the week in profit. MANA price action went against the tide, with global markets nervous and still jitters after the Fed tightening announcement. A weekly close above the S1 and Fibonacci low should trigger a return to the upside. Decentraland (MANA) price has been on the front foot in a challenging market environment. MANA bulls look ready to eke out 28% of gains for this week after the price lifted from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and is now set to pop and stay above the monthly S1 support level. Expect more investors to join the rally once the MANA price can consolidate above the S1 and set $2.57 later today as the price target. MANA price set for 15% price hike Decentraland was forming a falling knife last week but got picked up after the bounce off the $1.67 handle and went against the tide this week as the 200-day SMA around $2.0 offered a window of opportunity for more bulls to extend the recovery. In a slow grind, price action again space and lifted MANA 28% until Decentraland price is hovering. As bulls are now trying to consolidate above the monthly S1 at $2.24, and with that as well reentered the Fibonacci retracement to all-time highs. MANA price is yet still far away from any all-time highs. Global markets still look very much on edge, but that does not mean that Decentraland price action will disappoint to the upside. Expect more investors to come in during the US session if MANA price can stay above $2.24. That trigger and inflow will see price action propel further upwards to tick $2.57, the low from December 04 and set as an easy profit target to be reached. MANA/USD daily chart The monthly S1 can be proven slippery when wet, and price action could easily slide back below, triggering bulls to take their money and run. MANA price would be plie back against the 200-day SMA, break it and fulfill the swing trade towards $1.67. Would the swing lower trigger an even more aggressive selloff from bulls and investors, expect a short overshoot towards $1.28, just above the monthly S2.

S&P 500 left the 4,270s - 4,330s range with an upside breakout – after bonds finally caught some bid. While in risk-on posture, divergencies to stocks abound – any stock market advance would leave S&P 500 in a more precarious position than when the break above 4,800 ATHs fizzled out. But a stock market advance we would have, targeting 4,500 followed by possibly 4,600. The sizable open long profits can keep growing. Only the market internals would be poor, so better don‘t look at the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, and similar metrics. Enough to say that Friday‘s advance was sparked by the Apple news. When it‘s only the generals that are advancing while much of the rest remains in shambles, Houston has a problem – we aren‘t there yet. Fed‘s Kashkari also helped mightily on Friday – that implicit rates backpedalling was more than helpful. Pity that precious metals haven‘t noticed (I would say yet) – but remember the big picture and don‘t despair, we‘re just going sideways before the inevitable breakout higher. Back to rates and the Fed, there is a key difference between the tightening of 2018 and now – the economy was quite robust with blood freely flowing, crucially without raging inflation. With the Fed sorely behind the curve by at least a year, it‘ll have to move faster and have lower sensibility to market selloffs caused. Stiff headwinds ahead as liquidity gets tighter. Couple that with resilient oil – more profits taken off the table Friday at $88.30 – and you‘ve got a pretty resilient inflation. Not that inflation expectations would be shaking in their boots, not that commodities would be cratering. It‘s only copper (influencing silver) that has to figure out just how overdone its Friday‘s move had been. Not that other base metals would be that pessimistic. Similarly to precious metals and the early tightening phase, commodities would be under temporary pressure as well, but outperforming as we officially enter stagflation. Not too tough to imagine given the GDP growth downgrades. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Great finish to the week, but S&P 500 bulls have quite a job ahead – it continues being choppy out there. I‘m still looking at bonds with tech for direction. Credit Markets HYG finally turned around, and Friday was a risk-on day. The question remains how far can the retracement (yes, it‘s retracement only) reach – can the pre-FOMC highs be approached? Could be, could be. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver retreated, but no chart damage was done – things are still going sideways as the countdown is on for the Fed to either tighten too much and send markets crashing, or reverse course (again). Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and why should it be given that it can‘t be printed. Some backing and filling is ahead before the uptrend reasserts itself. Copper Copper is the only red flag, and seeing it rebound would call off the amber light. This is the greatest non-confirmation of the commodities direction in quite a while, and that‘s why I‘m taking it with more than a pinch of salt. Bitcoin and Ethereum Crypto bulls are putting up a little fight as the narrow range trading continues – I‘m not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Summary S&P 500 bulls finally moved in an otherwise volatile and choppy week. For the days ahead, volatility is likely to calm down somewhat, but chop is likely to be with us still – only that I expect it to be of the bullish flavor. 10-year Treasury yield has calmed down, and that would be constructive for stocks – watch next for the 2-year to take notice likewise. The 2-year Treasury is quite sensitive to the anticipated Fed moves, and illustrates well the rate hike fears – coupled with the compressed 10-year to 2-year ratio, we‘re looking at rising expectation of the Fed policy mistake (in tightening too much, too fast). For now though, stocks can recover somewhat, and most of the commodities can keep on appreciating. Precious metals keep being in the waiting game, very resilient, and will turn out one of the great bullish surprises of 2022. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution The Plan: It is an election year when Democrats will project political pressure upon the Federal Reserve to not risk through aggressive policy changes a stock market collapse to keep their votes. As a result, more money printing expands inflation, which supports the interest for bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Should we see in opposition for whatever reason a rapid stock market decline, the investor would unlikely be interested in owning stock or bonds. While initially, bitcoin prices would likely fall alongside the markets, money will likely flow into bitcoin shortly afterward. The execution: With bitcoins prices suppressed from their recent decline (down 52% from its last all-time high at around US$69,000), we have another edge for minimizing exposure risk. BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, high likely turning points: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 31st, 2022. The chart above depicts five supply zones we have our eye on. We will try identifying low-risk entry points on smaller time frames at or near these points and reduce risk further with our quad exit strategy. We already had entries near zone 1 and 2 and posted those live in our free Telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, bitcoin, the plan, and its execution, reload trading: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2022. Once the more significant time frame turning point is identified (white arrow), we will add what we call ‘reload’ trades (see chart above) on the smaller weekly time frame. We do so by identifying low-risk entries in congestion zones (yellow boxes) on the way up. We aim to arrive near the elections in November with a sizable position that is due to our exit strategy being risk-free. Playing with the market’s money will allow for positive execution psychology and ease us to observe our position through an expected volatility period, with further profit-taking into possible volatile upswings that are only temporary in nature. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, long-term profit potential: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of February 1st, 2022. While this year’s midterm trading on the long side of the bitcoin market could provide for substantial income from the 50% profit-taking of each individual trade and reload based on our quad exit strategy, the real goal is to have a remaining position size that could potentially go to unfathomable heights, since we see in the long term the inflation problem not going away but rather culminating in a bitcoin rise that could be substantially much larger in percentage than alternative inflation hedges like real estate, gold, silver and alike. Not to say that we find it also essential to hold these asset classes for wealth preservation. The quarterly chart above illustrates the potential of such a position. We illustrated both in time (six years) and price (US$ 134,000) our most conservative model in this chart. Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution: We see no scenario where inflation is just going away. The above narrative shows that a short-term fueling of inflation is likely. Furthermore, a high-risk scenario is fueling inflation even more. Should markets decline rapidly, it can be expected that money printing and buying up the market is the most predominant solution applied. Consequently, the average investor would wake up relieved that prices wouldn’t decline any further but liquidating their holdings in a further inflated fiat currency will have massively decreased purchasing power. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Tesla stock tumbles after beating earnings estimates TSLA shares hit by concerns over supply chain issues. Apple and big tech could turn the market next week. Tesla (TSLA) staged a modest recovery on Friday, but the real damage was done on Thursday when the stock shed nearly 12%. Friday's move was not even that impressive given Tesla's high beta, a fact that would usually see it bounce significantly more than the major indices. As we know well by now high, growth is not the sector of choice this year, and Tesla does straddle this space. Investors are moving back to more traditional sectors and metrics for their portfolios, and the era of high flying growth is coming to an end, for now at least. We view this as a positive event, stretching too far would have resulted in an ugly snapback or bubble popping most likely. This stabilisation should continue for the year with one or two speculative dead cat bounces along the way. We may just get one of those next week as the remainder of big tech gets a chance to continue on from where Apple led. Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are all reporting earnings this week. Positive earnings should steady sentiment, and this would then also likely spread to some high growth names. However, in the longer term, we expect balance sheets rather than growth to outperform this year. Tesla Stock News Tesla is not just pure growth, although it is managing to do that rather impressively if the latest results are anything to go by. It will stay with the pace, while other start-up EV manufacturers are more likely to fade away. Tesla created the EV space and remains the brand leader. This will likely not change since it has positioned itself as a premium brand. It will likely face more competition, but we do not see it losing quite as much market share as that forecast by Bank of America. Forecasting a drop from 69% to 19% market share in the space of two years does seem a bit headline-grabbing. The problem for Tesla is its valuation got too ahead of itself, so it is likely to underperform in this new environment despite continued strong earnings and revenue growth. Tesla Stock Forecast The bearish trend is now well-established. Thursday's losses only followed on from what we identified back in early January. The spike higher failed, and then it created a lower low, which confirmed the mid-December low. Even Friday's price action set a lower low than Thursday before the bounce set in. Resistance at $987 is last week's high and is first up. A close above that is significant and a new bar above that will signify a small short-term uptrend. Otherwise, the medium-term downtrend remains in control with support at the 200-day moving average, which sits at $814 currently. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

Solana price keeps hovering above the monthly S2 support. SOL price sees RSI slowly climbing out of the oversold area on the RSI. Expect a pickup in bullish sentiment once Nasdaq confirms risk-on will be the central theme for this week. Solana (SOL) price saw its bullish reversal stop short on Sunday and is now nearing the monthly S2 support level again at $89.28. Although ASIA PAC equity and European indices are firmly in the green, the sentiment has not spilled over to US futures and cryptocurrencies yet. Expect a bounce off the monthly S2 support level and look for a first test at $100 to the upside before continuation this week towards $130.70. Solana bulls are pushing the RSI away from the oversold area Solana price action saw bulls in good shape on Friday and Saturday, erasing a part of the games and trying to reach $100 to the upside. Instead, the sharp uptick stopped on Sunday as cryptocurrencies again looked heavy, with trading starting on Monday. Strangely enough, the most critical Asian indices and European indices are firmly in the green, where US futures are somewhat mixed and relatively flat during the European trading session. Expect for SOL price to stay hovering around this S2 level as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still at or in an oversold area, limiting any potential downside for bears. This should help bulls to use this window of opportunity to go long and make a bounce off the S2 level at $89.28. Once US futures kick into gear and take over the sentiment from Europe, expect some bullish uptick again, targeting $100 intraday and $130.70 for this week. SOL/USD daily chart On the downside, a break below the S2 support level would see a dip towards the low from last week, around $82. If European indices give up their gains and turn red, together with US futures firmly in the red, expect to see another wave of selling, with a possible nosedive threat towards $58.84. With that move, the RSI would overshoot firmly into being oversold.

S&P 500 pushed sharply higher, squeezing not only tech bears even if yields didn‘t move much – bonds actually ran into headwinds before the closing bell. With my 4,500 target reached, the door has opened to consolidation of prior steep gains, and that would be accompanied by lower volatility days till before the positioning for Friday‘s non-farm payrolls is complete as talked on Sunday. So, we have an S&P 500 rally boosting our open profits while the credit market‘s risk-on posture is getting challenged, and divergencies to stocks abound – as I wrote yesterday: (…) any stock market advance would leave S&P 500 in a more precarious position than when the break above 4,800 ATHs fizzled out. But a stock market advance we would have, targeting 4,500 followed by possibly 4,600. We‘re getting there, the bulls haven‘t yet run out of steam, but it‘s time to move closer to the exit door while still dancing. But the key focus remains the Fed dynamic: (…) Fed‘s Kashkari ... helped mightily on Friday – that implicit rates backpedalling was more than helpful. Pity that precious metals haven‘t noticed (I would say yet) – but remember the big picture and don‘t despair, we‘re just going sideways before the inevitable breakout higher. Back to rates and the Fed, there is a key difference between the tightening of 2018 and now – the economy was quite robust with blood freely flowing, crucially without raging inflation. With the Fed sorely behind the curve by at least a year, it‘ll have to move faster and have lower sensibility to market selloffs caused. Stiff headwinds ahead as liquidity gets tighter. Suffice to say that precious metals did notice yesterday, and copper looks ready to work off its prior odd downswing. Remember that commodities keep rising (hello the much lauded agrifoods) while oil enteredd temporary sideways consolidation. Look for other base metals to help the red one higher – the outlook isn‘t pessimistic in the least as the recognition we have entered stagflation, would grow while the still compressing yield curve highlights growing conviction of Fed policy mistake. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls proved their upper hand yesterday, and the question is where would the upswing stall – or at least pause. Ahead soon, still this week. Credit Markets HYG caught a bid yesterday too, but the sellers have awakened – it appears the risk-on trades would be tested soon again. Bonds are certainly less optimistic than stocks at this point, but the S&P 500 rickety ride can still continue, and diverge from bonds. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver retreat was indeed shallow, did you back up the truck? The chart hasn‘t flipped bearish, and I stand by the earlier call that PMs would be one of the great bullish surprises of 2022. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls rejected more downside, but I‘m not looking for that to last – however shallow the upcoming pullback, it would present a buying opportunity, and more profits on top of those taken recently. Copper Expect copper‘s recent red flag to be dealt with decisively, and for higher prices to prevail. Other base metals have likewise room to join in as $4.60 would be taken on once again. At the same time, the silver to copper ratio would move in the white metal‘s favor after having based since the Aug 2020 PMs top called. Bitcoin and Ethereum As stated yesterday, crypto bulls are putting up a little fight as the narrow range trading continues – I‘m not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Time for a downside reversal is approaching. Summary S&P 500 bulls made a great run yesterday, and short covering was to a good deal responsible. Given the credit market action, I‘m looking for the pace of gains to definitely decelerate, and for the 500-strong index to consolidate briefly. VIX is likely to keep calming down before rising again on Friday. Should credit markets agree, the upcoming chop would be of the bullish flavor, especially if oil prices keep trading guardedly. And that looks to be the case, and the rotation into tech can go on – $NYFANG doing well is one of the themes for the environment of slowing GDP growth rates, alongside precious metals and commodities embracing inflation with both arms. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Gold fought valiantly, gold fought nobly, gold fought honorably. Despite all this sacrifice, it lost the battle. How will it handle the next clashes? Have you ever felt trapped in the tyranny of the status quo? Have you ever felt constrained by some invisible yet powerful forces trying to thwart the fullest realization of your potential? I guess this is what gold would feel like right now – if metals could feel anything, of course. Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, January looked to be quite good for the yellow metal. Its price surpassed the key level of $1,800 at the end of 2021, rallying from $1,793 to $1,847 on January 25, 2022. Then the evil FOMC published its hawkish statement on monetary policy. In its initial response, gold slid. That’s true, but it bravely defended its positions above $1,800 during both Wednesday and Thursday. There was still hope. However, on Friday, the metal capitulated and plunged to $1,788. Here we are again – below the level of $1,800 that gold hasn’t been able to exceed for more than several days since mid-2021, as the chart below shows. Am I disappointed? A bit. Naughty goldie! Am I surprised? Not at all. Although I cheered the recent rally, I was unconvinced about its sustainability in the current macroeconomic context, i.e., economic recovery with tightening of monetary policy (the surprisingly positive report on GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 didn’t probably help gold), rising interest rates, and possibly a not-distant peak in inflation. In the previous edition of the Fundamental Gold Report, I described the Fed’s actions as “a big hawkish wave that could sink the gold bulls” and pointed out that “gold started its decline before the statement was published, which may indicate more structural weakness.” I added that it was also disturbing that “gold was hit even though the FOMC statement came largely as expected.” Last but not least, I concluded my report with a warning that “the upcoming weeks may be challenging for gold, which would have to deal with rising bond yields.” My warning came true very quickly. Of course, we cannot exclude a relatively swift rebound. After all, gold can be quite volatile in the short-term, and this year could be particularly turbulent for the yellow metal. However, I’m afraid that the balance of risks for gold is the downside. Next month (oh boy, it’s February already!), we will see the end of quantitative easing and the first hike in the federal funds rate, followed soon by the beginning of quantitative tightening and further rate hikes. Using its secret magic, the Fed has convinced the markets that it has become a congregation of hawks, or even a cult of the Great Hawk. According to the CME Fed Tool, future traders have started to price in five 25-basis-point raises this year, while some investors believe that the Fed will lift interest rates by 50 basis points in March. All these clearly hawkish expectations led to the rise in bond yields (see the chart below), creating downward pressure on gold.   Implications for Gold What does the recent plunge in gold prices imply for investors? Well, in a sense, nothing, as short-term price movements shouldn’t affect long-term investments. Trading and investing should be kept separate. However, gold’s return below $1,800 can disappoint even the biggest optimists. The yellow metal failed again. Not the first and not the last time, though. In my view, gold may struggle by March, as all these hawkish expectations will exert downward pressure on the yellow metal. In 2015, the first hike in the tightening cycle coincided with the bottom of the gold market. It may be similar this time, as the actual hike could ease some of the worst expectations and also push markets to think beyond their tightening horizon. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Predictive Modeling Suggests 7~10% Rally In SPY/QQQ Before April 2022 Has the Santa Rally arrived late this year? Are traders trying to position for a Q4:2021 earnings blowout before the end of 2021? Let’s take a look at what predictive modeling can help us understand. The recent rotation in the SPY/QQQ has shaken some traders’ confidence in the ability of any potential rally – blowing up expectations of a Santa Rally. Yet, here we are with only five trading days before the end of 2021, and the US major indexes are nearing all-time highs again. PREDICTIVE MODELING SHOWS A CONTINUED MELT-UP TREND THROUGH JAN/FEB 2022 Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Predictive Modeling system may hold the answers you are looking for. Let’s look at a few charts to prepare for what may unfold over the next 60+ days. First, this SPY Weekly ADL chart highlights the range of potential outcomes going forward into March/April 2022. The further out we attempt to predict using this technique, the more opportunity exists for outlier events (unusual price trends/activity). Yet, the SPY ADL predictive modeling system suggests a very strong upward price trend in January/February 2022, with a possible narrowing of price in late February – just before another big move higher in March/April 2022. There is an outlier trend that appears below the current price trend. So far, this outlier trend has not aligned with price action over the past 5+ weeks and shows an alternate support level near $430. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The ADL predictive modeling system suggests a broad market uptrend is likely in the SPY, with an initial target near $490 possibly being reached by early February. If Q4:2021 earnings come in strong and revenues continue to impress the markets, we may see a rally above the $490 level before the end of February 2022. After the tightening of price near the end of February 2022, it appears the SPY will consolidate near $480, then enter another rally phase and attempt to rally above $500. This type of price action aligns with solid Q4:2021 expectations and continued Q1:2022 economic growth. ADL PREDICTS QQQ WILL RALLY ABOVE $430 BY MARCH/APRIL 2022 This Weekly QQQ ADL Chart highlights a similar type of price trend compared to the SPY. The QQQ appears to have a more consistent upward trend bias with a fairly solid upward price channel trending through the first four months of 2022. It appears the QQQ will rally to levels above $420 by mid-February 2022, then stall for a few weeks, then resume a rally trend through most of March 2022 and into early April 2022. After mid-April 2022, it appears the QQQ will consolidate, again, near the $420~$425 level. This ADL prediction suggests Technology, Healthcare, Consumer stables/discretionary, Real Estate, and other sectors will continue to do well in Q1:2022 and beyond. A rally of 7% to 10% in the first few months of 2022 may send the US markets dramatically higher throughout the rest of 2022 if economic growth stays strong. The ADL predictive modeling system has proven to be a valuable tool in understanding what lies ahead for the markets. Not only does it show a range of potential outcomes and price targets, but it also helps us understand if and when price breaks beyond these ADL predictive ranges (which translates into a unique price anomaly). Price anomalies happen. The COVID-19 price collapse represented a unique price anomaly in 2020. This event, somewhat like a Black Swan event, hit the markets hard and quickly sent prices tumbling. It is important to understand that these events can still happen in the future and can dramatically disrupt expected price trends. Still, if the ADL predictive price trends continue to be accurate, it looks like Q1:2022 and Q2:2022 may continue to see moderate upward price trends with bouts of sideways volatility taking place. The range of the ADL predictive levels (the MAGENTA LINES) shows the type or expected volatility in the markets for Q1 and Q2. It appears volatility will stay elevated over the next 6+ months – so get ready for some big, explosive price trends. Watch for the markets to continue to melt higher over the next few weeks as traders prepare for Q4:2021 earnings to start hitting in early January 2022. We may see the US markets start another big upside price trend – possibly breaking to new all-time highs soon enough. WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT PREDICTIVE MODELING? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about our Total ETF Portfolio (TEP) technology and how it can help you identify and trade better sector setups. We’ve built this technology to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector. Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the TEP system trades. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results. Have a great day!

S&P 500 got close to its all-time high, as market mood turned bullish again. But the index retraced some of the rally. So will the uptrend continue? For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch The S&P 500 index gained 0.39% on Tuesday, Nov. 16, as it closed slightly above the 4,700 mark. The market reached the daily high of 4,714.95 before retracing some of the intraday advance. It got close to the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50. Last week it fell to the local low of 4,630.86 and it was almost 88 points or 1.86% below the record high. The early November rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seemed overbought in the short-term and it traded within a topping pattern. Then the index retraced some of that advance, as it fell the mentioned 88 points from the record high. The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq Extended Its Short-Term Uptrend Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. The technology index broke above the 16,000 level recently and it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated higher above its short-term upward trend line. But last week it retraced some of the advance and it got back to the 16,000 level. Since then it has been advancing and yesterday it got back closer to the record high, as we can see on the daily chart: Apple Above $150, Microsoft at New Record High Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple broke above the $150 price level yesterday. However, it remains well below the early September record high. Microsoft stock retraced all of its recent decline and it reached the new record high of $340.67 yesterday, as we can see on their daily charts: Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open virtually flat this morning. We may see another attempt at breaking above the 4,700 level. However, the market will likely continue to fluctuate along that level following mixed economic data releases. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 bounced from its last week’s local low and it got back above the 4,700 level yesterday. It still looks like a short-term consolidation. Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Stocks extended their Friday’s rally yesterday, as the S&P 500 index broke above the 4,500 level. Is this still just an upward correction? The S&P 500 index gained 1.89% on Monday, as it extended its Friday’s gains and broke above the 4,500 level. It retraced more of its recent declines after breaking above the last week’s consolidation along the 4,300-4,400. On last Monday’s low of 4,222.62 the market was 596 points or 12.4% below the Jan. 4 record high of 4,818.62. And yesterday it reached the new local high of 4,516.89. It still looks like an upward correction within a downtrend, however, the market may be also trading within a new uptrend. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. On Friday it broke above a steep short-term downward trend line. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.3% higher following an overnight consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,500-4,550, marked by the previous local lows. The resistance level is also at 4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450, marked by the recent resistance level. The S&P 500 is now back above its early December local low, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Apple Rallies Again Recently, Apple stock fluctuated along the support level of $155.0-157.5 following mid-January downtrend ahead of its quarterly earnings release. The stock reversed the downtrend after breaking above a short-term consolidation and since the earnings release it gained more than 10%. The resistance level is at around $180.0-183.0, marked by the Jan. 4 record high of $182.94. Conclusion The S&P 500 index extended its Friday’s advance yesterday and it broke slightly above the 4,500 level. It still looks like an upward correction following mid-January declines and a rebound within a new medium-term downtrend. Stocks may further extend their uptrend, but there’s a risk of a short-term downward reversal. Today the index is expected to open 0.3% higher, and we may see some uncertainty and a consolidation along the 4,500 level. The market will be waiting for the quarterly earnings releases (AMD, Alphabet today after the session’s close, Meta tomorrow and Amazon on Thursday, among others) and Friday’s monthly jobs data announcement. There is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. We decided to close our profitable long position that was opened on Tuesday, Jan. 25 at the 4,335 level - S&P 500 continuous futures contract. The details of that position (stop-loss and profit target levels) were available for our subscribers in the premium Stock Trading Alerts. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 broke above the 4,500 level again; it still looks like an upward correction. We decided to close our speculative long position from last Tuesday (4,335 level) at the opening of today’s cash market’s trading session – a gain of around 175 index points. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

AUDUSD recoups losses The Australian dollar recovered after the RBA signaled an end to its bond-buying program. The recent sell-off below the daily support and psychological level of 0.7000 further weighed on market sentiment. As the RSI dipped again into the oversold territory, short-term sellers’ profit-taking has driven the price higher. The bears could be looking to fade the current rebound unless the bulls succeed in pushing past 0.7180. 0.7030 is a fresh support and 0.6970 a major floor before June 2020’s lows near 0.6800. USDCAD tests support The Canadian dollar advanced after November’s GDP exceeded expectations. A break above the supply zone at 1.2730 has put the US counterpart back on track. Nonetheless, the rally came to a halt at the daily resistance at 1.2790. The greenback needed a breather as the surge prevented buyers from chasing after volatility. 1.2580 is a key support and an oversold RSI may raise buyers’ interest again. A close above the said resistance could propel the pair to December’s high at 1.2950. NZDUSD sees limited rebound The New Zealand dollar bounced back after the Q4 jobless rate dropped to 3.2%. The pair saw bids over September 2020’s lows around 0.6530. The RSI’s repeated oversold situation has caught bargain hunters’ attention. However, the directional bias remains bearish. The kiwi could find resistance at 0.6700 near the 20-day moving average as trend-followers look to sell into strength. 0.6400 would be the next target if the US dollar makes a comeback across the board.

Bitcoin rose 0.6% on Tuesday, ending the day around $38,700. Ethereum added 3.7%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 are growing: from 0.5% (Binance Coin) to 12.8% (Solana). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, rose 1.5% to $1.86 trillion overnight. Bitcoin hit a week-and-a-half high above $39,000 on Tuesday but then pulled back, offsetting almost all of the gains. The first cryptocurrency was boosted by positive stock indexes and a weakening dollar, but sellers began taking profits on long positions. Over the last eight days, BTC gained almost 20%, recouping more than half of the failure of the second half of January, and buyers decided not to take risks. Ahead is solid psychological resistance at the circular $40,000 level, which supported the first half of January. Technically, Bitcoin has stalled its gains as it approaches the upper boundary of the descending channel. Traders are waiting for new signals about whether the recovery in risk demand will continue or whether the latest rebound will soon be choked off. The result of this struggle will determine whether we will see a break from the downtrend or whether the downtrend will continue again. El Salvador president Nayib Bukele is confident that bitcoin will still show tremendous growth. It's all about the fact that there are 50 million millionaires in the world. If they wanted to buy a coin, there wouldn't be enough for everyone, as the entire bitcoin issue wouldn't exceed 21 million. MicroStrategy added another 660 BTC on the recent market decline. In total, MicroStrategy already has more than 125,000 bitcoins. Russian government officials told Bloomberg that Russians own $214 billion worth of cryptocurrencies. That's about 12% of the total crypto market capitalisation.

The British pound climbs in the North American session, 0.34%. The market sentiment is mixed as European stocks rise while US futures point towards a lower open. BoE’s 25 basis points rate hike is fully priced in by investors. The GBP/USD remains downward biased, as it failed to breach above the 100-DMA. After ending January with losses of 0.65%, the British pound snaps three-day losses, climbing 0.31%. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.3495, though retreating from the 100-day moving average (DMA) lying at 1.3514. As depicted by European stock indices rising, the market sentiment is mixed, but US equity futures underpins the cash market towards a lower open. Bank of England (BoE) expected to post back-to-back rate hikes In the meantime, money market futures, as shown per the CME Group BOEWATCH tool, 100% of market participants expect an increase of 25 basis points, from 0.25% to 0.50%. Sources cited by CNBC said that “With the Bank Rate reaching 0.5%, we expect the MPC to confirm that all APF (asset purchase facility) reinvestments will cease following the February decision.” Source: CME Group Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed President Harker crossed the wires. He commented that the Fed is not behind the curve, and he expects a rate hike of 25 basis points, four in the year. Concerning the balance sheet reduction, he said that the US central bank could begin the Quantitative Tightening (QT) once the Federal Funds Rates (FFR) hit 1% to 1.25%. The UK economic docket featured the BoE Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals for December. The former came at £0.8B in line with expectations, while the latter rose to 71.051K, higher than the 66K foreseen. Concerning the Market Manufacturing PMI Final for January, increased to 57.3, a tick more elevated than the 56.9 estimated, though trailed the previous month 57.9, showing some slowing, due to the Omicron hit. Across the pond, Manufacturing PMI released by IHS Markit and the ISM for January will be closely watched by GBP/USD traders. That alongside the JOLTs Job Opening for December could shed some light, in anticipation of Thursday’s Jobless Claims and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook The GBP/USD is downward biased. During the European session, the pair retreated at the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 1.3514, but any downward moves might be capped by the 50-DMA lying at 1.3418. To the upside, the GBP/USD will face resistance at 1.3500, followed by the 100-DMA at 1.3514 and an eight-month-old downslope trendline around the 1.3530-40 region. On the flip side, the 50-DMA at 1.3418 is the first support level, followed by the 1.3400 figure, and then the YTD low at 1.3357.

Shiba Inu is seeing lower highs and lower lows compressing price action around $0.00002179. SHIB price is next set for a bullish breakout with several tailwinds present in equities. Expect for SHIB bulls to lift price action back above the 200-day SMA, potentially gaining 24%. Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been stuck in consolidation since January 22 with lower highs and higher lows, punching in both buyers and sellers towards each other with the scene set for a breakout. From the looks of it, that will be a bullish breakout, supported by tailwinds from global equities being on the front foot, with the Nasdaq leading the charge. Expect bulls to break above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the process, and try to reach $0.00002782, the 78.6% Fibonacci level. SHIB bullish breakout holding 28% gains Shiba Inu price may have had its low for the year after hitting $0.00001730 on January 22. Since then, the price has shifted a bit sideways around $0.00002170, with lower highs and higher lows going for consolidation between buyers and sellers. The price in SHIB is so condensed now that a breakout is due. As global markets are on the front foot and risk assets are leading the charge, these tailwinds will spin-off towards cryptocurrencies and set the stage for a bullish breakout towards $0.00002782 as target. SHIB price will, in that process, take out the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.00002562, which does not hold much importance seeing it only got breached on one occasion. Bulls will instead want to look out for $0.00002782, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci level and is an essential indicator that there might be an uptrend in the making. More upside will depend on how the tailwinds behave as the 55-day SMA looks quite heavy around $0.00003000. SHIB/USD daily chart Alternatively, the consolidation could still see a bearish breakout, with bears trapping bulls and running price action back to $0.00001730, or possibly even $0.00001500 back down onto the monthly S1 support level. The reason for the bearish breakout could come from very choppy economic data that could start to point to a global recession with elevated prices and job numbers worsening again. That would trigger a global risk-off wave that could put cryptocurrencies on the backfoot.

S&P 500 recoverd the opening setback at 4,500, and the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery. The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls prevailed, but the question still remains – where would the upswing stall, or at least pause? Still the same answer as yesterday - ahead soon, still this week. Credit Markets HYG reversed higher, and the pace of its coming gains, would be valuable information. Volume tells a story of a modest setback only thus far – greater battles await. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver staircase recovery goes on, showing that further retreat was indeed unlikely. The long consolidation would be resolved in a bullish way, it‘s only a question of time. Great performance this early in the tightening cycle – look for PMs upswings once the rate hikes get going. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls aren‘t wavering as the whole energy sector attests to. Black gold hasn‘t dipped yet below $86, and keeps marching and leading the other commodities $100 is approaching. Copper Copper‘s recent red flag was indeed dealt with decisively, and higher prices prevailed. Still great room to catch up with the rest after the preceding reprieve across other base metals as well. Bitcoin and Ethereum The narrow crypto trading range continues – I‘m still not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Time for a downside reversal is approaching – will happen just when Ethereum loses the bid. Summary S&P 500 bulls again scored gains yesterday, but the sectoral rotation and credit market turn would build a vulnerability going into Friday when value would suffer. Before that, I look for the bears to gradually start appearing again, taking probing bites, but not yet being decisive. VIX has some more room to decline indeed, confirming my earlier thoughts – the volatility return would happen on non-farm payrolls inducing a fresh guessing game as to the Mar rate hikes – 25 or 50bp? Inflation, precious metals and commodities would though still emerge victorious. For now, overall risk management is key – fresh portfolio high was reached yesterday. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin fell 4.8% on Wednesday, ending the day around $37.0K. Ethereum lost 3.9%, while other top-ten altcoins fell between 4.4% (Cardano and Polkadot) and 7.8% (Solana and Terra). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, overnight fell by 3.4% to $1.8 trillion, while Bitcoin's dominance index fell 0.2% to 39.2%. Bitcoin began a sharp decline on Wednesday as the US session opened, along with US stock index futures. After several hours of falling, stock indices reversed and regained momentum. BTC, meanwhile, broke its previous strong correlation with equity indices and did not show a meaningful rebound. The benchmark cryptocurrency came under pressure from reports of a severe snowstorm coming to Texas. A year ago, a similar weather anomaly disrupted the power supply to a quarter of households and caused loss of life, forcing authorities to impose a state of emergency. The state's association of miners, the Texas Blockchain Council, decided to de-energise mining farms on Wednesday. Texas is home to the main bitcoin network computing capacity in the US. The states themselves are the world's number one miner of the significant digital asset (around 49% of hash rate). Bitcoin again proved that it remains in a downward channel, as the recovery bounce lost strength at the upper end of the range. In theory, a bearish reversal of bitcoin opens up the possibility of updating the January lows with potential targets near 30K.

XAUUSD attempts to bounce The bullions bounce higher as the US dollar softens across the board. Gold is looking to claw back losses from the liquidation in late January. A close above the psychological level of 1800 would be the first step, pushing short-term sellers into covering their bets. The previous support at 1817 coincides with the 30-day moving average, making it an area of interest and important resistance. A bullish breakout may send the metal to the previous high at 1847. On the downside, 1780 is a fresh support. SPX 500 tests resistance The S&P 500 rallies over better-than-expected corporate earnings. A break above 4490 has eased the selling pressure on the index. The former daily support at 4600 is now a key resistance that lies over the 30-day moving average. A close above this congestion area could turn sentiment around, paving the way for a recovery towards 4750. The RSI’s overbought situation may keep the momentum in check temporarily. A pullback may see buying interest in the demand zone between 4410 and 4490. USOIL consolidates gains WTI crude continues to climb as OPEC+ refuses to raise its output limit. The RSI inched into the overbought territory on the daily chart after a new high above 85.00. The bulls could be wary of chasing after the extended rally. 85.00 has turned into a support and a pullback could be an opportunity to accumulate again. Further down, 82.00 on the 30-day moving average is a major floor for the current rally. The milestone at 90.00 would be the next target when momentum makes its return.

S&P 500 is slowly getting under pressure, which is likely to culminate on weak non-farm payrolls tomorrow if Wednesday was any guide. Credit markets are pushing for higher yields as inflation data keep surprising those policy makers who had been already surprised throughout 2021. Commodities though aren‘t freezing as a proverbial deer in the headlights, and once the scare of the Fed‘s short tightening cycle gets done away with, precious metals would join. In the meantime, look for silver to act on copper‘s cue, and for gold to do relatively better in risk-off settings.As for stocks, my gentle selling bias while on the lookout to enter short towards the session‘s end, hasn‘t changed since yesterday, and the new position is already profitable:(…) the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery.The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls prevailed yesterday, but would get under pressure relatively soon. The ominous lower knots say a consolidation is knocking on the door.Credit MarketsHYG repelled selling pressure, but that won‘t last – I‘m looking for lower values across the bond spectrum, coinciding with (temporary) dollar upswing. Risk-off.Gold, Silver and MinersAll this risk-off already in and still to come, is failing to press gold and silver really down – and that tells you the true direction is up, just waiting for a (Fed, inflation, stagflation) catalyst.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t yet wavering, but remain perched pretty high – I‘m looking for sideways to down consolidation as the bears get emboldened by the rising volume. Trying their luck soon.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, still positioned for an upside breakout. Commodities are pointing in the right direction – note the absence of sellers yesterday. How far would the USD upswing compress the red metal today? Not much, not lastingly.Bitcoin and EthereumThe narrow crypto trading range is over, and the bears are on the move – look for them to take some time before they get going towards BTC $35K.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are about to meet the bears again, and higher yields won‘t save value stocks, let alone spawn a rush to tech safety. The pressure in stocks to probe lower values, is building up, and 4,450 may not be enough to stop it. For all the pause in Fed hawkish jawboning, the tightening cycle is merely getting started, and stocks will feel it. Unlike precious metals, which would reverse prior hesitation once the rate raising starts in earnest, and start going up. And commodities? These aren‘t waiting for anyone‘s greenlight. And neither should you in life – what I would like to bring to your attention, is that volatility is rising, and it thus makes sense to pare back the overall portfolio exposure and position sizing while taking only the strongest of opportunities.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

However, these gains attracted some profit-taking at prices around US$1,850. And in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting, gold sold off for three days in a row. This merciless sell-off only ended at US$1,780 wiping out nearly all gains since mid of December. It was some form of the classic “the bull walks up the stairs and the bear jumps out the window” pattern, which is a typical behavior within an uptrend.Hence and exactly for this reason, the deep pullback did not necessarily end the recovery in the gold market. Of course, in the bigger picture, the entire precious metals sector is still stuck in this tenacious correction which has been ongoing since August 2020. In the short-term, however, the pullback has created an oversold setup and once again proved that there is buying interest at prices below US$1,800.US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022. False breakout?US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.It also seems that the US-Dollar might have hit an important top last Thursday and is now moving lower, which would be very supportive for gold, of course. Everyone is expecting the US-Dollar to go up as the FED is expected to raise interest rates. But the US-Dollar has been discounting this “hike and taper scenario” for several months already. Actually, the US-Dollar index has been rallying +8.8% since May 2021! During the recent FOMC meeting, however, big money might have used the seeming breakout to sell their dollar longs into a favorable high-volume setup. At the same time, stock market sentiment was extremely bearish. Hence, last week likely triggered a top in the US-Dollar and a violent back and forth bottoming pattern for the stock-market.US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022. A series of lower highs!US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022.In the big picture, a top in the US-Dollar would continue the series of lower highs for the dollar. As well, the US-Dollar is moving within a huge triangle since 2001. After a series of three lower highs since December 2016, a test of the lower boundary of the triangle would give gold prices an extreme tailwind in the coming years. Hence, even if it´s hard to come up with any bearish arguments for the dollar at the moment, technically it looks like the dollar could roll over.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart from February 3rd, 2020. Gold’s behavior is changing.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.For gold, a weaker US-Dollar would be very helpful. In fact, since the beginning of this week, we perceive an ongoing change in gold’s behavior. We are getting impressed by its intraday strength! Every small pullback around and below US$1,800 was rather quickly bought again. So far, gold has only recovered 38.2% of last week’s nasty sell-off and currently sits pretty much exactly at its 200-day moving average (US$1,805).But the fresh buy signal from the slow stochastic oscillator on the daily chart promises more upside. Hence, we see gold fuming its way higher in the coming weeks. In the next step, gold will have to overcome the 38.2% resistance around US$1,808.50 and then continue its recovery towards US$1,830. In any case, the seasonal component is at least very favorable until the end of February. Therefore, even higher price targets are conceivable too. But gold needs to breakout above the triangle and clear US$1,850. Only then a more sustainable bullish momentum would emerge which could last further into spring.If, on the other hand, gold takes out US$1,780, the recovery since mid of December might be over already and the medium-term correction might likely pick up again.Conclusion: Seasonality favors another wave upOverall, we assume that seasonality favors another wave up in the gold market. Thus, another rally towards at least US$1,830 is realistic. We are short-term bullish, mid-term neutral to skeptic and long-term very bullish for gold.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 3rd, 2022|Tags: EUR/USD, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold neutral, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

AMC stock slumped yesterday as debt raise news was digested. AMC now nearly doubles the raise from $500 million to $950 million. AMC is down over 40% in the last month and 43% for 2022. AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) stock is back on the news wires the last few days, but unfortunately for holders it has not been well received. AMC stock put in three consecutive green days before slumping over 8% on Wednesday. Risk aversion returned, but AMC also announced it was raising more debt to refinance its existing debt. The stock closed at $15.42 for an 8.5% loss on the day. AMC Stock News This morning AMC has nearly doubled its debt offering from $500 million to $950 million. There is also see a bit more detail on the offering. It is to carry a 7.5% interest rate and expires in 2029. The funds will be used to retire existing debt at 10.5% expiring in 2025. The extra $450 million sees AMC also redeeming some notes at 15-17% due in 2026. So AMC is basically remortgaging at a lower rate. This will reduce its interest payments. AMC needs to do this, however, as it carries too much debt. The company has $5.4 billion in long-term debt. AMC has about $1.6 billion in cash, but it spends nearly $100 million per quarter on debt repayments. So remortgaging makes sense, but it is not exactly comforting. CEO Adam Aron has been looking for ways to improve the financial position of the company, and investors baulked at more share issuances. This was the obvious next step but comes a bit later than optimal. Junk bond yields had reached a record low during the summer. The rate of 7.5% is more or less in line with the sector. CCC high yield corporate bonds are currently yielding on average 8.3%. This is up from 6% during the summer. Moody's reacted positively and changed its outlook to positive. AMC Stock Forecast For now, AMC shares are holding the support at $14.54, but risk aversion is growing after FB earnings last night and a suprisngly hawkish Bank of England this morning. Equity markets will suffer with high risk names getting hit the most. Expect $14.54 to break with the next support at $12.22. A break here and the lure of $10 will be obvious. Only beaking $21.04 ends this curent bearish trend. AMC daily chart

MATIC price is hovering above the weekly support level at $1.44, hinting at a move higher. Investors can expect Polygon to rally at least 15% before encountering a tough hurdle. A breakdown of the $1.41 support level will invalidate the bullish thesis. MATIC price recovery after the January flash crash was good but is slowing down. The ongoing consolidation will likely result in an uptrend (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/matic-price-consolidates-before-jumping-to-190-202202022123) that propels Polygon to revisit crucial levels. MATIC price sets the stage MATIC price has been teetering above the $1.44 support level and will likely retest it soon. A bounce off this barrier could be the key to triggering an uptrend. In some cases, the rally could even begin before the initial pullback. Regardless, investors can expect a minimum 15% ascent from MATIC price that tags the supply zone’s lower limit at $1.75. In a highly bullish scenario, Polygon could pierce this hurdle and make a run for the weekly resistance barrier at $1.95. This move would bring total gains from 15% to 27%, from the current level at $1.53. Investors willing to go long could enter a pilot position at the current level and wait for a retest of the $1.44 barrier. If the latter does not arrive, market participants can book profits following a retest of $1.75 and $1.95. MATIC/USDT 4-hour chart While things seem straightforward for MATIC price, a breakdown of the $1.44 support level could dent their optimism. A four-hour candlestick close below $1.41, however, will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis, making an ideal place to enter a stop-loss. A bearish turn could see MATIC price crashing 13% before retesting the $1.23 weekly support level.

EURUSD breaks higher The euro soared as traders bet that persistent inflation could force the ECB to act sooner than later. A break below the daily support at 1.1300 had put the single currency under pressure. However, a swift rebound above this support-turned-resistance indicates strong commitment from the buy-side. The pair is rising towards the January peak at 1.1480. The RSI’s triple top in the overbought area may slow the momentum down as intraday buyers take a break. 1.1270 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. GBPUSD tests resistance The pound popped higher after the BOE raised interest rates to 0.5%. The latest rebound above the resistance at 1.3520 has prompted sellers to cover. Then the rally is accelerating towards 1.3660 which is a major hurdle from the sell-off in late January. A bullish breakout could turn sentiment in the sterling’s favor and send the price to the previous peak at 1.3740. On the downside, 1.3500 is an important support and its breach could invalidate the recovery despite the bullish catalyst. CADJPY awaits breakout The Canadian dollar recovers over growing risk appetite. A fall below the demand zone around 90.60 weighed on sentiment as the loonie struggled to make a higher high. The pair found support at 89.70 in what used to be a former supply area on the daily chart. The current consolidation is a sign of indecision. 91.10 proves to be a tough resistance to crack. A bullish breakout could bring the price to the recent peak at 92.00. Failing that, the pair may suffer from another round of sell-off below 89.10.

Down the chain, US stock market dynamics now determine corporate investor sentiment towards Bitcoin and Ether. From the top-down, this sentiment then spreads down to altcoins. But since late last year, there has been a continuing trend that even bitcoin's calming is enough for altcoins to return to growth and outperform the first cryptocurrency. In the last 24 hours, the entire crypto market has added 3.3%, while Ether has gained 4.7% versus Bitcoin's 2.4%. Ether has strengthened by 15% in the last seven days, returning to this month's highs and trying to climb above the bottom levels at the end of September 2021. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation excluding Bitcoin has been hovering around the $1 trillion mark for over a week and approached the upper end of that range on Friday morning. The reduction in volatility in Bitcoin allows for an optimistic outlook on altcoins. At least in the short term. An essential boundary for Ether will be the $3K mark. A return in the price above this level could further encourage buyers and reject the idea of a crypto-winter following the example of 2018. Solana is showing signs of coming out of the hole it fell into at the end of January. The $90 mark has attracted sufficient buyer demand. However, it will be premature to discuss a sustained recovery to the upside, only a stabilisation after the collapse. A BTCUSD consolidation above $40k and Ethereum above $3k would shift the altcoin recovery to a new speed and restart the process of BTC share contraction in the entire market.

  Beware, the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy could lift real interest rates! For gold, this poses a risk of prices wildly rolling down. The first FOMC meeting in 2022 is behind us. What can we expect from the US central bank this year and how will it affect the price of gold? Well, this year’s episode of Fed Street will be sponsored by the letter “T”, which stands for “tightening”. It will consist of three elements. First, quantitative easing tapering. The asset purchases are going to end by early March. To be clear, during tapering, the Fed is still buying securities, so it remains accommodative, but less and less. Tapering has been very gradual and well-telegraphed to the markets, so it’s probably already priced in gold. Thus, the infamous taper tantrum shouldn’t replay. Second, quantitative tightening. Soon after the end of asset purchases, the Fed will begin shrinking its mammoth balance sheet. As the chart below shows, it has more than doubled since the start of the pandemic, reaching about $9 trillion, or about 36% of the country’s GDP. It’s so gigantic that even Powell admitted during his January press conference that “the balance sheet is substantially larger than it needs to be.” Captain Obvious attacked again! In contrast to tapering, which just reduces additions to the Fed’s holdings, quantitative tightening will shrink the balance sheet. How much? It’s hard to say. Last time, during QT from 2017 to 2019, the Fed started unloading $10 billion in assets per month, gradually lifting the cap to $50 billion. Given that inflation is now much higher, and the Fed has greater confidence in the economic recovery, the scale of reduction would probably be higher. The QT will create upward pressure on interest rates, which could be negative for the gold market. However, QT will be a very gradual and orderly process. Instead of selling assets directly, the US central bank will stop reinvestment of proceeds as securities run off. As we can read in “Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet”, The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account. What’s more, the previous case of QT wasn’t detrimental to gold, as the chart below shows. The price of gold started to rally in late 2018 and especially later in mid-2019. Third, the hiking cycle. In March, the Fed is going to start increasing the federal funds rate. According to the financial markets, the US central bank will enact five interest rate hikes this year, raising the federal funds rate to the range of 1.25-1.50%. Now, there are two narratives about American monetary policy in 2022. According to the first, we are witnessing a hawkish revolution within the Fed, as it would shift its monetary stance in a relatively short time. The central bank will “double tighten” (i.e., it will shrink its balance sheet at the same time as hiking rates), and it will do it in a much more aggressive way than after the Great Recession. Such decisive moves will significantly raise the bond yields, which will hit gold prices. However, in this scenario, the Fed’s aggressive actions will eventually lead to the inversion of the yield curve and later to recession, which should support the precious metals market. On the other hand, some analysts point out that central bankers are all talk and – given their dovish bias – act less aggressively than they promise, chickening out in the face of the first stock market turbulence. They also claim that all the Fed’s actions won’t be enough to combat inflation and that monetary conditions will remain relatively loose. For example, Stephen Roach argues that “the Fed is so far behind [the curve] that it can’t even see the curve.” Indeed, the real federal funds rate is deeply negative (around -7%), as the chart below shows; and even if inflation moderates to 3.5% while the Fed conducts four hikes, it will remain well below zero (about -2%), providing some support for gold prices. Which narrative is correct? Well, there are grains of truth in both of them. However, I would like to remind you that what really matters for the markets is the change or direction, not the level of a variable. Hence, the fact that real interest rates are to stay extremely low doesn’t guarantee that gold prices won’t decline in a response to the hiking cycle. Actually, as the chart above shows, the upward reversal in the real interest rates usually plunges gold prices. Given that real rates are at a record low, a normalization is still ahead of us. Hence, unless inflation continues to rise, bond yields are likely to move up, while gold – to move down. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

S&P 500 is grinding lower, and bonds concur. Risk-off posture and rising yields aren‘t tech‘s friend really, and the VIX is back to moving up. The odd thing is that the dollar wasn‘t well bid yesterday as could have been expected on rising rates – the sentiment called for a bad non-farm payrolls number today. Understandably so given Wednesday‘s preview, and the figure would just highlight how desperately behind the inflation curve the Fed is, what kind of economy it would be tightening into, and shine more light on its manouevering room for Mar FOMC.Fun times ahead for the bears, and the S&P 500 short profits can go on growing – the ride isn‘t over: If tech – in spite of the great earnings Amazon move – gets clobbered this way again on the rising yields, then we could very well see even energy stocks feel the initial selling wave. Not that value stocks would be unaffected, to put it more than mildly – just check yesterday‘s poor showing of financials. Something is going to give, and soon.Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are getting slaughtered, and the downhill path is likely to continue, thanks to tech. Brace for a volatile day today.Credit MarketsHYG selling pressure made a strong return, predictably. Credit markets are leading stocks to the downside, certainly.Gold, Silver and MinersAs written yesterday, all this risk-off already in and still to come, is failing to press gold and silver really down – and that tells you the true direction is up. The downswings are being bought.Crude OilCrude oil bulls in the end didn‘t waver, and are pushing higher already – the upside breakout can really stick.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, still positioned for an upside breakout. It would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto bears didn‘t get far, and it looks like we‘re back to some chop ahead. SummaryS&P 500 bulls are getting rightfully challenged again – the Fed hikes are approaching. See though how little are commodities and precious metals affected. Meanwhile the S&P 500 internals keep deteriorating. Today‘s analytical introduction is special in talking the non-farm payrolls and Fed tightening dynamic, and explains why the pressure in stocks to probe lower values, is still building up, and that 4,450 may not be enough to stop it. For all the pause in Fed hawkish jawboning, the tightening cycle is merely getting started, and today‘s surprisingly strong data gives the Fed as much justification as the quickening wage inflation. I hope you enjoyed today‘s extensive analysis and yesterday‘s risk exposure observations. Have a great day ahead!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Ethereum price made a false break below a short-term trend line yesterday.ETH price breaks above $2,695 and is set for a run towards $3,018.This would mean 13% gains for ETH and a more favourable outlook for next week.Ethereum (ETH) price is set to book the best gains it has made for the whole of 2022, as a bullish candle has now formed on the back of a significant support level. With that move, many bears are getting hurt as they probably fell in the bear trap with the false break below the supportive short-term trend line. Expect more upside to come with global markets enjoying the rally in Amazon shares, which is spilling over into cryptocurrencies and lifting sentiment in ETH towards $3,018.ETH bulls are stabbing bears in the back with a trapEthereum price was dangling below a short-term trend line and looked quite heavy after the slippage (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-sentiments-rolls-over-as-meta-shakes-nasdaq-202202031412) from META earnings. But that markets can change their minds overnight is proven yet again, after Amazon’s earnings fueled a booster rally which we are seeing today. This has spilled over into cryptocurrencies and is lifting sentiment in ETH prices with a firm break above $2,695, squeezing out bears in the process, who went short on the false break of the trend line, and it is now just a matter of time before they close out and take their losses.ETH price is thus set for a second rally today as those bears will need to revert to the buy-side volume (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-pushes-higher-eth-targeting-3-500-202202021800) to close and cut their losses. This will add a boost to ETH prices and could see Ethereum bulls hitting the price target at $3,018, taking out the $3,000 level, and setting the stage for next week. With that move, the red descending trend line could be broken, and with that, the downturn since December, finally (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-pushes-higher-eth-targeting-3-500-202202021800) breaking the chances for bears and setting the stage for a possible longer-term uptrend.ETH/USD daily chartNevertheless, there are still some earnings on the docket for today that could surprise to the downside and see those tailwinds (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-markets-to-favor-bears-soon-202202020838) as quickly fade as they came. Expect that with that lack of support, ETH price will collapse back to $2,695 and start to weigh further on the bulls. Should that spiral into equities, pushing them firmly in the red, and impacting safe haven flow – expect a dip back towards $2,600.

While everyone is criticizing Russia, it’s easy to follow the US ‘savior’ narrative. However, what if we looked at what’s happening with oil in mind?Disclaimer to today’s article: I’m providing this analysis from a pure energy-focused perspective. I do not claim it represents THE right view, but rather one of those that won’t be as visible in the mainstream. It is interesting to add different views as pieces of the same puzzle. I am looking forward to reading yours in the comments!Picture Source: MemedroidSeveral port facilities in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have been the target of cyberattacks, prompting the judicial authorities to investigate the suspicions of extortion of funds at the expense of German operators in the oil sector. Indeed, it would appear that this series of computer hackings that began several days ago primarily concerns oil terminals. This is disrupting deliveries in several major European ports against a backdrop of soaring energy prices.After jumping the day before, thanks to the strengthening of the euro against the US dollar induced by ECB President Lagarde, oil prices continued to rise during the European session on Friday. Consequently, the fall in the greenback came on top of the recovery in demand, the fall in US crude inventories and the disruptions in supply to boost the price of black gold on the climb, the two crude benchmarks evolving above the psychological mark of 90 dollars a barrel, galvanized by solid demand and tensions on the offer coming from (geo-)political risks.Who is Provoking Who?The situation is rather complex on the geopolitical scene, with the US claiming that Russia is planning an invasion in Ukraine, whereas the US under NATO cover sent additional troops to Eastern Europe. The question that may arise here is: who is provoking who? So far, we haven’t seen Russia placing troops in Mexico, on the border with the United States. On the other hand, the Biden administration may encounter difficulties in accepting that the Kremlin can agree to various partnerships with its European neighbors, especially regarding more favorable energy supplies. Instead, it’s in the US interest to weaken those diplomatic relations, potentially leading to additional partnerships that may arise between the EU and Putin.And as we see the US-led narrative getting through the Western mainstream media with more aggressive, suspicious, and tense tones towards Russia, this obviously has the effect of pouring some oil on the Russian-Ukrainian fire. Furthermore, the US needs reasons to demonstrate that NATO is still alive and relevant while a number of countries are now questioning their own participation in the US-led military organisation created in 1949, even going so far as to show some doubts regarding its current motivations.Isolating the Russian BearBy maintaining a hostile tone towards Russia’s intentions, the US is consequently trying to isolate the Russian bear and push their European partners to blindly follow the “official narrative” (as the EU being part of NATO), which could possibly lead to new sanctions on Russia, the latter being able to retaliate by using its energy assets and capacities to deprive the EU of the Russian supplies, which currently on the gas side represent between 30% and 40% of total gas imports for Europe. Then, as a result, the Americans could start exporting more gas into Europe via Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipping – which again could benefit their energy-led commercial balance – the Europeans thus becoming the losing players in this game.As an example, we saw this week that a tanker loaded with LNG from the US will arrive at the LNG terminal in Świnoujście (Poland) at the end of this month, since Poland has LNG import capabilities which could be used to deliver US gas to Ukraine. Apparently, this is the second time (after the first one took place two years ago) that such gas deliveries are made by PGNiG, the Polish state-controlled oil and gas company, in cooperation with ERU (their strategic trading partner on the Ukrainian market).Actually, Ukraine suspended imports of Russian gas at the end of 2015. After relying on Russian gas imports for decades, they currently increasingly depend on imports from Europe. Since Ukraine has no LNG import capabilities, such US gas deliveries have been organized via a pipeline from the Polish terminal (through re-gasified LNG).WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart)Brent Crude Oil (BRJH22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart)Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart)In summary, geopolitics is always complex because it relies on individual economic and strategic interests of countries. The readings also depend on different views, and since there is always a lot of noise, it often helps to take some steps back in order to analyze the global situation from a different angle.Have a nice weekend! And remember to chime in on the conversation.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDCHF bounces higherThe US dollar rallied after January’s nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations. The latest pullback found support near the previous low at 0.9180.A bullish RSI divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the sell-off. A close above 0.9275 would force short-term sellers to cover and pave the way for a broader rebound.Then the double top (0.9360) on the daily chart would be the next target. On the downside, a bearish breakout may send the pair to 0.9110.USDCAD awaits breakoutThe loonie weakened after a rise in Canada’s unemployment rate in January. The greenback has previously come to a halt at the daily resistance (1.2800).The retracement then found bids at the resistance-turned-support at 1.2650, suggesting traders’ strong interest in keeping the two-week-long rally intact. The RSI has inched into the overbought territory and may drive the price lower with short-term profit-taking.A bullish breakout may extend the uptrend to December’s peak at 1.2950.GER 40 lacks supportThe Dax 40 drifts lower after the ECB’s hawkish turn. The recent rebound met stiff selling pressure at 15740. Then a fall below 15350 indicates a lack of commitment from the buy-side.A bearish MA cross suggests an acceleration to the downside and may attract more bears. The demand area around 14850 is a critical floor on the daily chart. Its breach could trigger a bearish reversal in the medium term.An oversold RSI may cause a limited bounce. The bulls need to reclaim 15500 in order to turn sentiment around.

S&P 500 refused to break below 4,450s, and junk bonds took off the lows as well. The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations.Treasuries are telling the story as well – the 10-year yield has been surging lately while the 30-year bond didn‘t move nearly as much. It means a lot of focus on Fed tightening, which is making the recent Amazon and Meta earnings ability to move stocks this much, all the better for the S&P 500 in the short run. The 10-year yield is likely to retrace a part of its prior increase, and that would give stocks some breathing room. At the same time though, I don‘t think that the tech selling is done, that tech is out of the woods now – the current rally is likely to run out of steam over the next 5-10 days, then go sideways to down.As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. Before that, we‘re in a quite wide range where current stock market values aren‘t truly reflecting bond market sluggishness.Keeping in mind the key Friday‘s conclusion:(…) Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future.Credit MarketsHYG paused, and the heavy selling is catching a bid – reprieve is approaching even if Friday‘s highs didn‘t last.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t getting anywhere, and are likely to warmly embrace the upcoming pause in higher yields. But that‘s not yet the true fireworks we would get later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t even remotely pausing – I wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really. There is still much strength in black gold regardless of the Iran sanctions waiver – triple digit oil I called for months ago, is getting near.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, and the downside looks fairly well defended. The upside breakout would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are still sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto break higher attests to the return of strength underway, and it‘s supported by the volume. The buyers have the short-term upper hand.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood the prospect of hawkish Fed getting more job market leeway on Friday, and look to be entering the week with a slight advantage. Also the bond markets look nearning the moment of calming down as the longer durations are painting a different picture than the 10-year Treasury. S&P 500 would like that, but the tech rebound would get tested as we likely move lower to welcome Mar. Till then, stocks are likely to drift somewhat higher before the rally runs out of steam over the next 5-10 days. Full game plan with reasoning is introduced in the opening part of today‘s extensive analysis. Cryptos good performance on Friday is as promising as the commodities surge – enjoy the days ahead.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin price looks overextended as it grapples with the 50-day SMA and the weekly resistance barrier at $42,816. Ethereum price pierces through the bearish breaker and approaches the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Ripple price approaches the $0.757 to $0.807 supply zone that could cut the uptrend short. Bitcoin price has seen tremendous gains over the past three days as it attempts to overcome a massive hurdle. While altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple have corresponded to this bullishness, investors need to exercise caution with fresh investments as a retracement could be around the corner. Bitcoin price faces a decisive moment Bitcoin price has risen 18% over the past four days and is currently hovering below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the weekly resistance barrier confluence at $42,816. If this uptrend is a bull trap, BTC is likely to see rejection followed by a retracement to the immediate support level at $8,481. A breakdown of the said barrier will knock the big crypto down to $34,752. In an extremely bearish case, Bitcoin price could revisit the $30,000 psychological barrier and collect the liquidity resting below it. BTC/USD 1-day chart If BTC produces a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387, however, it will invalidate the bearish thesis. While this development will alleviate the sell-side pressure, it does not mean that Bitcoin price has flipped bullish. A daily candlestick close above $52,000 will produce a higher high and suggest the possible start of an uptrend. Ethereum price slithers close to bearish thesis invalidation Ethereum price has followed the big crypto and pierced the bearish breaker, ranging from $2,789 to $3,167. Any further bullish momentum will push ETH to climb higher and retest the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Assuming BTC retraces, investors can expect Ethereum price to face rejection at $3,242, leading to a 25% pullback to the weekly support level at $2,324. In a highly bearish case, Ethereum price could revisit the $1,730 weekly support level and collect the sell-side liquidity resting below it. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the bearish outlook, the Ethereum price can invalidate the short-term bearish outlook if it produces a daily candlestick close above the $3,167 resistance zone. A bullish scenario could be kick-started, however, if buyers push ETH to produce a swing high at $3,413. Ethereum price gains momentum to breakout to $3,300 Ripple price faces a blockade Ripple price broke out of its consolidation and rallied 25% from $0.604 to $0.754. This impressive move is currently retesting the weekly resistance barrier at $0.740, which rests below another hurdle that extends from $0.757 to $0.807. Rejection at this multi-resistance zone seems likely considering the situation in which Bitcoin is in, and investors can expect the Ripple price to retrace 16%, returning to the consolidation zone at $0.628. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close above the supply zone’s upper limit at $0.807 will signal a resurgence of buyers and indicate their willingness to move higher. In this case, Ripple price could set up a higher high by rallying 12% to $0.911.    

  Gold’s latest feats increased investors’ appetite. The outlook for the dollar, however, remains healthy. That can only mean one thing. As volatility erupts across the financial markets, gold and silver prices are being pulled in conflicting directions. For example, with the USD Index suffering a short-term decline, the outcome is fundamentally bullish for the precious metals. However, with U.S. Treasury yields rallying, the outcome is fundamentally bearish for gold and silver prices. Then, with panic selling and panic buying confronting the general stock market, the PMs are dealing with those crosscurrents. However, with QE on its deathbed and the Fed poised to raise the Federal Funds Rate in the coming months, the common denominator is rising real interest rates. To explain, the euro’s recent popularity has impacted the USD Index. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the dollar basket’s movement. Thus, if real interest rates rise and the U.S. dollar falls, what will happen to the PMs? Well, the reality is that rising real interest rates are bullish for the USD Index, and the euro’s recent ECB-induced rally is far from a surprise. With investors often buying the EUR/USD in anticipation of a hawkish shift from the ECB, another ‘hopeful’ upswing occurred. However, the central bank disappointed investors time and time again in 2021, and the currency pair continued to make new lows. As a result, we expect the downtrend to resume over the medium term.  Supporting our expectations, I wrote the following about financial conditions and the USD Index on Feb. 2: To explain, the blue line above tracks Goldman Sachs' Financial Conditions Index (FCI). For context, the index is calculated as a "weighted average of riskless interest rates, the exchange rate, equity valuations, and credit spreads, with weights that correspond to the direct impact of each variable on GDP." In a nutshell: when interest rates increase alongside credit spreads, it's more expensive to borrow money and financial conditions tighten. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the FCI has surpassed its pre-COVID-19 high (January 2020). Moreover, the FCI bottomed in January 2021 and has been seeking higher ground ever since. In the process, it's no coincidence that the PMs have suffered mightily since January 2021. To that point, with the Fed poised to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, the FCI should continue its ascent. As a result, the PMs' relief rallies should fall flat like in 2021.  Likewise, while the USD Index has come down from its recent high, it's no coincidence that the dollar basket bottomed with the FCI in January 2021 and hit a new high with the FCI in January 2022. Thus, while the recent consolidation may seem troubling, the medium-term fundamentals supporting the greenback remain robust. Furthermore, tighter financial conditions are often a function of rising real interest rates. As mentioned, the USD Index bottomed with the FCI and surged to new highs with the FCI. As a result, the fundamentals support a stronger, not weaker USD Index. As evidence, the U.S. 10-Year real yield, the FCI, and the USD Index have traveled similar paths since January 2020. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the USD Index since January 2020, while the red line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year real yield. While the latter didn’t bottom in January 2021 like the USD Index and the FCI (though it was close), all three surged in late 2021 and hit new highs in 2022. Moreover, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury nominal and real yields hit new 2022 highs on Feb. 4.  In addition, if you compare the two charts, you can see that all three metrics spiked higher when the coronavirus crisis struck in March 2020. As such, the trio often follows in each other’s footsteps. Furthermore, with the Fed likely to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, this realization supports a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield, and a higher FCI. As a result, the fundamentals underpinning the USD Index remain robust, and short-term sentiment is likely to be responsible for the recent weakness.  Likewise, as the Omicron variant slows U.S. economic activity, the ‘bad news is good news’ camp has renewed hopes for a dovish Fed. However, the latest strain is unlikely to affect the Fed’s reaction function. A case in point: after ADP’s private payrolls declined by 301,000 in January (data released on Feb. 2), concern spread across Wall Street. However, after U.S. nonfarm payrolls (government data) came in at 467,000 versus 150,000 expected on Feb. 4, the U.S. labor market remains extremely healthy.  Please see below: Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) On top of that, the BLS revealed that “the over-the-month employment change for November and December 2021 combined is 709,000 higher than previously reported, while the over-the-month employment change for June and July 2021 combined is 807,000 lower. Overall, the 2021 over-the-year change is 217,000 higher than previously reported.”  Thus, the U.S. added more than 700,000 combined jobs in November and December than previously reported, and the net gain in 2021 was more than 200,000. Please see below: Source: BLS As for wage inflation, the BLS also revealed: “In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 23 cents to $31.63. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.7 percent.” As a reminder, while investors speculate on the prospect of a hawkish ECB, the latest release out of Europe shows that wage inflation is much weaker than in the U.S. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 1: Eurozone hourly labor costs rose by 2.5% YoY on Dec. 16 (the latest release). Moreover, the report revealed that “the costs of wages & salaries per hour worked increased by 2.3%, while the non-wage component rose by 3.0% in the third quarter of 2021, compared with the same quarter of the previous year.”  As a result, non-wage labor costs – like insurance, healthcare, unemployment premiums, etc. – did the bulk of the heavy lifting. In contrast, wage and salary inflation are nowhere near the ECB’s danger zone. Please see below: And why is wage inflation so critical? Well, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Jan. 25: Source: ECB As a result, when the ECB’s Chief Economist tells you that wage inflation needs to hit 3% YoY to be “consistent” with the ECB’s 2% overall annual inflation target, a wage print of 2.3% YoY is far from troublesome. Thus, while euro bulls hope that the ECB will mirror the Fed and perform a hawkish 180, the data suggests otherwise.  In addition, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls materially outperformed on Feb. 4, I noted on Feb. 2 that there are now 4.606 million more job openings in the U.S. than citizens unemployed. Please see below: To explain, the green line above subtracts the number of unemployed U.S. citizens from the number of U.S. job openings. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the epic collapse has completely reversed and the green line is now at an all-time high. Thus, with more jobs available than people looking for work, the economic environment supports normalization by the Fed. Thus, if we piece the puzzle together, the U.S. labor market remains healthy and U.S. inflation is materially outperforming the Eurozone. As a result, the Fed should stay ahead of the ECB, and the hawkish outperformance supports a weaker EUR/USD and a stronger USD Index. Moreover, the dynamic also supports a higher FCI and a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield. As we’ve seen since January 2021, these fundamental outcomes are extremely unkind to the PMs. Finally, while the Omicron variant has depressed economic sentiment, I noted previously that the disruptions should be short-lived. For example, with Americans’ anxiety about COVID-19 decelerating, renewed economic strength should keep the pressure on the Fed. Please see below: To explain, the light brown line above tracks the net percentage of Americans concerned about COVID-19, while the dark brown line above tracks the change in flight search trends on Kayak. In a nutshell: the more concern over COVID-19 (a high light brown line), the more Americans hunker down and avoid travel (a low dark brown line). However, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light brown line has rolled over and the dark brown line has materially risen. Moreover, with the trend poised to persist as the warmer weather arrives, increased mobility should uplift sentiment, support economic growth, and keep the Fed’s rate hike cycle on schedule. The bottom line? The USD Index’s fundamentals remain extremely healthy, and while short-term sentiment has been unkind, rising real yields and a hawkish Fed should remain supportive over the medium term. Moreover, with the PMs often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, more downside should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks over the next few months. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 4, despite the spike in U.S. Treasury yields. However, with so much volatility confronting the general stock market recently, sentiment has pulled the PMs in many directions. However, the important point is that the medium-term thesis remains intact: the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields should seek higher ground, and the realization is profoundly bearish for the precious metals sector. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold continues to recover as the US dollar treads water. The previous fall below the daily support at 1785 had put the bulls on the defensive. The RSI’s oversold signal attracted some buying interest and prompted sellers to cover, driving up the price. The rebound has since gained traction after the metal rallied above the support-turned-resistance at 1817. In fact, the bullish breakout may raise momentum and open the door to the recent peak at 1850. On the downside, 1795 is a major support to keep buyers committed. NZDUSD remains under pressure The New Zealand dollar edges lower amid cautious market sentiment at the start of the week. The pair previously bounced off September 2020’s low around 0.6530. However, 0.6700 on the 20-day moving average so far has proven to be a tough hurdle. A drop below the fresh support (0.6630) indicates that the directional bias remains bearish. And sellers would be eager to fade another rebound. 0.6590 is the closest support. A break below 0.6530 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.6400. UK 100 awaits breakout The FTSE 100 rallies supported by solid performance in the commodity sector. The recent rebound hit resistance near the January peak at 7640. Narrowing consolidation and higher highs suggest increased buying pressure. A bullish breakout would flush sellers out and attract momentum traders, firing up volatility in the process. This would be a strong bullish continuation signal. 7460 is a fresh support if the market remains indecisive. Its breach could extend the correction back to 7250.

S&P 500 bulls missed the opportunity, but credit markets didn‘t turn down. Yesterday‘s pause is indicative of more chop ahead – the risk-on rally can‘t be declared yet as having run out of steam, no matter the crypto reversal of today. Bonds are in the driver‘s seat, and the dollar is also cautious – unless these move profoundly either way, the yesterday described S&P 500 reprieve can still play out even if: (…) The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations. As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. The 4,460s are still holding while commodities look to be consolidating today. As the dollar is up somewhat, bonds would have to face opening headwinds – the effect upon tech would be telling. I‘m still looking for downswing rejection in stocks while precious metals would hold up better than commodities today. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook As stated yesterday, S&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future. Credit Markets HYG gave up the opening strength, and the bulls are likely to get under pressure soon – it‘s that yesterday‘s session lacked volume, thus interest of the buyers. The clock is ticking. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep refusing to make lower lows – that‘s the most important aspect of their tempered ascent. And price gains would accelerate later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn. Crude Oil Now, crude oil bulls did pause, but the dip isn‘t likely to reach too far – I still wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really – oil stocks would have to turn decidedly down first. Copper Copper is getting cautious, and would probably decline should the commodities pause continue – no matter what other base metals would do at the same time. Still, that‘s internal strength in the waiting, similarly to the precious metals strength. Bitcoin and Ethereum The crypto break higher ran out of steam, warning of a rickety ride ahead – not just in cryptos. Things can still get volatile. Summary S&P 500 bulls haven‘t lost the opportunity to force higher prices, but need to repel the upcoming intraday flush that can come today, and possibly even continue tomorrow. Yes, instead of seizing upon the chance, bonds have merely paused, creating a perfect environment for whipsawish trading today – I‘m still expecting Friday‘s lows to hold on a closing basis, but I‘m not ruling out a fake breakdown first. The very short-term outlook is simply choppy until the bond market upswing kicks in in earnest. And that would provide more fuel to precious metals and commodities while pressuring the dollar – seems though we would have to wait for a while to see that happen. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Stacking bitcoins winning edges It is not the number of edges that get it low risk. And again, there are no hidden magic formulas. What works well is covering multiple aspects in stacking one’s edges: Market behavior Time of day Oscillators for ranging markets Indicators for trending markets Supply/demand zone identification (VWAP=volume weighted average price, in addition to support and resistance lines) Inter-market relationships Leading/lagging (relative strength within a sector or group) Candlestick pattern Volume Time frame relationships Action-reaction principle News Day of the week Swing leg count MAE (=maximum adverse excursion) Mathematical/statistical edges like standard deviation Your list might look vastly different but should include tools that cover the principal variants of market behavior (ranging, trending, slow/fast price action, liquidity, time, volume, transactions). Investopedia is a good research tool for finding definitions and explanations of the various available technical tools. BTC in US-Dollar, daily chart, how we stack odds in our favor: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 8th, 2022. Our previous chart book release described fundamental reasons for being bullish on bitcoin, which we stack in a similar principled fashion. We pointed out that we were looking for low-risk entry points to build up a long-term position for bitcoin. Such a low-risk opportunity arose on February 3rd, last week. We had the following edges stacked at the time of entry (green arrow): General price strength (directional yellow line channel) Previous day retracement (action-reaction principle) Small range Doji for tight stop and possible reversal indication VWAP (blue histogram to the right of the chart) indicating a supply zone Scheduled ECB news item out of the way Time of week Time of day (we entered near the close of the daily candle) Extended from the mean (blue line, standard deviation) Commodity Channel Index (CCI). A momentum-based oscillator useful in congested sideways channels, gave the prior day to execution indication of a long entry (yellow arrow) We posted our entry in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Within a 24-hour period, we could profit on half of the position size for a gain of 8.73%. We also posted this first profit-taking target in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Our quad exit strategy provides income-producing revenues like this but, even more, eliminates risk. Consequently, this approach supports trading the remaining position with psychological ease for the intended long-term holding period. Hence, even starting out as a a short-term trade, the last 25% of the initial position can become a long-term invest. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, well-positioned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 8th, 2022. With previous entries at recent lows established in much the same manner, we are now exposed to the market with seven remaining rest positions at zero risk. Such an approach can afford to negate whether this will be the long-term turning point or not. Profits have been made. Should our plan pan out, then the remaining exposed capital will lead to further profits. Otherwise, this remaining position size will stop out at breakeven entry level. The weekly chart shows now a confirmed situation of a weekly bar takeout. For most traders this is an entry signal while we were already well established. We are playing with the market’s money and profits banked. With this time frame alignment more money is expected to join the long side. The chart also illustrates the favorable risk/reward-ratio to the right of the chart.   BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, early bird: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of February 8th, 2022. A glance at the monthly chart shows we are positioned very early and aggressively for this time frame. Nevertheless, as soon as prices might reach US$48,000, we will find ourselves here as well time frame aligned with a bar takeout. Green numbers show our entry prices for January with two entries and February with five entries. Should prices move upwards in our favor, we would take again partial profits near the red horizontal trend line slightly below all-time highs. The remaining positions stays in place for a possible breakout to all-time new highs. Too late if you are not positioned yet? No! This continuous flow of adding low-risk entry trades followed by partial profit-taking allows participating at all stages of market swings. Stacking bitcoins winning edges: In short, you want to have a clear instruction sheet on what to do in whatever market condition bitcoin throws at you. With a set of tools broadly covering all these variants and measuring them, you will be able to act without hesitancy. Then you can hope for the best, since you planned for the worst. Risk control is the core of each advanced trading approach! We aim to keep it simple, like a card counter, which supports executing high probability winning trades. At the same time, the crowd is confronted by surprising news or fast-moving markets. They use reactionary, inappropriate execution, which in turn creates losing trades. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 6th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Sandbox price action has broken above $4.72 but fades in early trading today. SAND price action is at the intersection of a red descending trend line and the historical pivot level. Expect current favourable tailwinds to boost confidence for bulls leading to a break to the upside and new all-time highs. Sandbox (SAND) price action broke above $4.72 yesterday and saw bulls trying to test $5.0. But the intersection of the descending trend line and a pivot level proved to be too heavy and pushed price action back below the $4.72 historical level. Expect bulls to keep supporting as more tailwinds coming from geopolitics support the case for more upside potential towards $6.0. Sandbox price targets $6 for this week Sandbox price looked set to finally end the downtrend since November 25. The intersection of the red descending trend line dictating the downtrend and the historical $4.72 pivotal historic level from November 23, proved too big of a hurdle for price action to close above yesterday. Instead, bulls decided to take profit with price fading as we speak. SAND does not need to one-directionally tank further but will probably see bulls keeping price close to the pivotal $4.72 level. With several favorable tailwinds, such as positive news from talks between Putin and Macron, investors look to be back on the scene and putting some money on the table to invest in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This will filter through in the demand side volume and will provide the needed impetus to punch through $4.72 again and close above, putting an end to the downtrend and targeting $6.0 this week. SAND/USD daily chart The resistance double whammy at the aforementioned intersection could prove too big of a temptation for profit-taking, and result in the Relative Strength Index dipping further, below 50, and translate into further downside for the altcoin towards $4.28, making it even harder to try for a daily close above $4.72. That could lead to yet more liquidation and see a return to a base level around $3.50.

  The S&P 500 index remains close to the 4,500 level following last week’s retreat. Was this just a downward correction? The broad stock market index lost 0.37% on Monday, as it continued to fluctuate within a short-term consolidation. The broad stock market’s gauge retraced some of its recent rally, as it fell to the local low of 4,451.50 on Friday. The market found a short-term bottom after reversing from last Wednesday’s local high of 4,595.31. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower. We will likely see more consolidation along the 4,500 level. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,540, market by the recent local highs. The resistance level is also at 4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450. The S&P 500 continues to trade below the November-January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Relatively Weaker The technology Nasdaq 100 index followed a similar path last week, as it retraced some of the rally. It remains relatively weaker than the broad stock market. The support level is at 13,800-14,000, and the resistance level is at 15,000-15,200. Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It broke above the short-term downward trend line a week ago before rallying up to around the 4,600 level. It’s trading along the 4,500 level after backing from the Wednesday’s high of 4,586. The market remains close to the resistance level of its previous local lows, but there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. So in our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index trades within a short-term consolidation following the decline from last week’s Wednesday’s local high. The market will likely extend its consolidation, as investors will be waiting for the Thursday’s Consumer price index release. The quarterly earnings season is mostly over now, and there is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely trade within a consolidation ahead of the important Thursday’s consumer inflation number release. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

EURUSD hits resistance The euro fell back after ECB President Lagarde tried to cool rate hike expectations. The rally came under pressure at the January peak of 1.1480. The RSI’s overextension at this daily resistance prompted momentum buyers to cash in. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling may drive the exchange rate lower. Short-term sentiment remains upbeat though unless the single currency drops below the origin of its bullish push at 1.1270. A recovery above 1.1480 could pave the way to last October’s high at 1.1690. GBPUSD consolidates gains The sterling turns higher as traders price in an increasingly hawkish Bank of England. A break above 1.3520 forced sellers to cover some of their positions. However, the pound’s rally came to a halt in the supply zone around 1.3620. The RSI’s overbought situation and bearish divergence suggest softness in the underlying momentum. The pair found bids on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3490), which sits in the aforementioned supply area. A new rally may propel the pair to the daily resistance at 1.3750. US 30 bounces higher The Dow Jones 30 inches higher supported by better-than-expected earnings. The index steadied after successive breaks above 34800 and 35450. Nonetheless, the recent recovery slowed down on the 30-day moving average, a sign of a lingering cautious mood. 34500 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. A bearish breakout could extend the correction to 33800. On the upside, a rally above 35700 could attract momentum traders and initiate a bullish reversal to 36500.

GBPUSD is gaining 0.35% on Wednesday, surpassing 1.3585, not far from the month's highs of 1.3620. The British pound is closely correlated with equity market dynamics, and the latest upward momentum in major global indices supports GBP buyers. Also noteworthy is that the Bank of England switched to the next gear in its monetary policy tightening as last week's rate hike was 25 b. p. rather than 50 b. p. by only a slight margin. The euro is also losing ground against the pound after a sharp spike at the ECB meeting. In our view, the EURGBP surge was caused by a technical bounce on touching the 6-year low area. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's stance suggests a much more decisive rate hike, which should provide a carry trade inflow into the pound and further push up the British currency. With the continued upward trajectory of equity indices, a renewal of the 6-year highs of the pound to the euro and a test of the 1.3750 area should come in just a matter of weeks.

Bitcoin price slows down its ascent after flipping the $42,748 hurdle into a foothold. Ethereum price contemplates a retracement after facing the 50-day SMA at $3,208. Ripple price looks ready for consolidation after a 51% ascent over the past four days. Bitcoin price rally is slowing, allowing bulls to take a breather before the next leg-up. While some might argue the short-term outlook looks bearish – due to the flash crash in January, the bigger picture reveals cryptocurrency (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies) markets still have the potential to go higher. A Wells Fargo report published in February reveals that cryptocurrency adoption is growing exponentially and, in many cases, resembles the growth curve of internet adoption. The American financial corporation even goes on to state the crypto sector could soon exit the initial phases of adoption and enter “an inflection point of hyper-adoption.” Wells Fargo Report: Internet usage history vs crypto users Bitcoin price at a decisive moment Bitcoin price rallied 25% in the last four days and set up a swing high at $45,539.(https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-begins-correction-after-45k-rejection-where-can-btc-price-bounce-next-202202081914) The rally rippled out, triggering copycat moves in other altcoins and the cryptocurrency market in general. Yet BTC failed to produce a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387. So, as a result, the bearish outlook is still in play. Investors should be prepared for anything between a minor retracement and a full-blow bear trap. An optimistic scenario will likely see BTC retest the weekly support level at $39,481 before triggering the next leg-up. A more pessimistic scenario, however, would speculate that Bitcoin price could crash to $34,752. A breakdown of this support floor could be the key to triggering a crash to $30,000 or lower. BTC/USD 1-day chart While things look on the fence for Bitcoin price, (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin) a daily candlestick close above $44,387 will invalidate the bearish thesis. A bullish regime, however, will only kick-start if BTC produces a daily candlestick (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart/candlestick-patterns) close above $52,000.   Ethereum price takes a breather Ethereum (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/ethereum) price seems to be undergoing a pullback (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-holds-above-3k-but-network-data-suggests-bulls-may-get-trapped-202202090153) as it faces off with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,208 while still hovering inside a bearish breaker, extending from $2,789 to $3,167. A rejection here could lead to a retracement to $2,812, where buyers have a chance at restarting the uptrend. Assuming the bullish momentum picks up, there is a good chance ETH could slice through the $3,208 and make a run for the $3,413 hurdle. The local top for Ethereum price could be capped around the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at roughly $3,600. ETH/USD 1-day chart On the other hand, if Ethereum price fails to stay above $2,812, it will indicate that buyers are taking a backseat. This development will invalidate the bullish scenario and trigger a crash to the weekly support level at $2,324. Ethereum price could liquidate bulls if ETH falls below $3,000 Ripple price to reestablish directional bias Ripple price broke out of its ten-day consolidation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/xrp-price-could-easily-return-to-1-under-one-condition-202202081437) and rallied 51% in just four days. This run-up sliced through the $0.740 and $0.817 hurdles, flipping them into support levels. While this climb was impressive, XRP price is likely to retrace as investors begin to book profits. The resulting selling pressure could push Ripple price down to the $0.740 support level where buyers can band together for a comeback. In some cases, the U-turn might not arrive until a retest of the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone. Regardless, investors can expect XRP price to run up to $1 and collect the liquidity resting above it. XRP/USD 1-day chart On the contrary, if the Ripple price fails to stay above the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone, it will reveal the lack of bullish momentum and hint that a further descent is likely. In this case, XRP price will sweep below the $0.518 support level to collect the sell-side liquidity resting beneath. XRP price could easily return to $1 under one condition

Peloton shares continue to be the most discussed stock on mainstream and social media. Two straight days of 20%-plus gains for PTON stock. The new CEO gets just the start he would have wanted. It is not exactly reassuring to your confidence when you step down as CEO of a company and the stock immediately explodes higher. Investors clearly had enough of Peloton's (PTON) former CEO John Foley. New man Barry McCarthy hits the ground running despite some mixed commentary from the analyst community this morning. Peloton Stock News Peloton reported earnings on Tuesday. The stock had already surged on news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) of a new CEO and continued reports that the company may be in the sights of big tech eyeing a potential takeover for the beleaguered fitness company. Revenue came in at $1.13 billion below the $1.15 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) came in below estimates at $-1.39 versus the $-1.20 estimate. The outlook was also weak with Peloton seeing full-year 2022 revenue at $3.8 billion, while analysts had forecast $4 billion. Following the results, Stifel maintained its buy rating on PTON with a $45 price target. Macquarie maintained its outperform rating with a lowered $60 price target, while Barclays also lowered its price target to $60 as well. Bank of America said, "Our estimates that assumed price cuts would drive new demand were too optimistic." BofA has a $42 price target for the stock. Peloton shares had already been strongly ahead in Tuesday's premarket before the earnings release. This was due to the new CEO and a cost-cutting plan including laying off 2,800 employees. The list of potential buyers for Peloton continued to grow as speculation mounted. Potential acquirers include virtually every major fitness company, numerous big tech firms, Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank. We do question whether in particular big tech would get much benefit out of the acquisition. Fitness has been a big part of the wearable market, and Peloton's subscribers are its value, but do Apple, Amazon and Google really struggle that much for users? Sports companies mentioned include Nike (NKE) and Adidas (ADDYY). These may make more sense as the subscribers could generate more value, add-ons and ancillary sales. Peloton Stock Forecast The weekly chart (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart) gives us all the information we need going back to the launch in September 2019. Peloton (PTON) rallied all the way up to $171 this time last year before steadily falling back. The stock has now totally retraced all of the pandemic gains and then some. In that respect, investors may be tempted to buy into the name as subscribers in 2019 totaled just over 500,000, whereas currently Peloton has 2.77 million subscribers. From the weekly chart, we can see the power of volume gaps we often talk about. Peloton broke sharply once it entered the light volume zone from $81 to $37. Now it has stabilized at a high volume zone and the point of control. This does set a potential base for the stock. (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) Peloton (PTON) chart, weekly The daily chart below shows we have had a bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) since the last earnings despite the share price continuing to slide. $23 remains support with first resistance at $46. This latest move is likely to calm down unless more takeover talk surfaces. If the price move does calm, then holding above $30 is key to keeping the bottom in place. Peloton (PTON) chart, daily  

S&P 500 bulls took the opportunity yesterday amid mild credit market support. Looks like more fireworks are to come – the risk-on turn is merely starting. Not only financials, but also tech welcomed higher yields – it seems that the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. We have quite a way to go still on the upside – 4,600s are waiting, and it remains to be seen how far in the 4,600 – 4,700 range stocks make it. Consumer discretionaries are outperforming staples, and energy isn‘t cratering – the brief commodities reprieve (don‘t look though at copper, which seems preparing a nice upside move, or crude oil‘s shallow dip) supports the stock market advance. Precious metals are rising strongly – both thanks to inflation expectations not budging much, and the expected copper upturn. Not even cryptos are plunging. The open S&P 500 and oil profits can keep on rising. Looks like the markets are slowly positioning for yet another hot inflation number tomorrow. How many times lately have there been expectations that high CPI data would sink stocks – but these rallied instead? Thursday is likely to turn out similarly – I‘m not looking for the stock market rally to top out tomorrow. The Mar FOMC is still quite a few weeks away, 50bp rate hike fears notwithstanding. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls have made the opening step, and look ready to extend gains. Even volume has returned a little, but importantly, sellers were nowhere to be seen – and that‘ll likely be the case today as well. Credit Markets HYG couldn‘t keep the opening gains, but junk bonds still did better than their quality counterparts. Anyway, the HYG weakness looks likely to be reversed (to some degree) today. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – and miners strength is confirming that. When inflation turns out more stubborn than generally appreciated, and bond yields don‘t catch up nearly enough, precious metals would like that. Love that. Crude Oil Now, crude oil bulls did pause, but the dip isn‘t likely to reach too far – I still wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really – this correction is more likely to be in time than in price. Copper Copper is clearly refusing to decline – its upswing looks to be a question of shortening time only. Likewise the commodities reprieve would be reversed shortly. The red metal‘s price action coupled with precious metals one, is very nice to see – for the fruits it would bring. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t weakening – they look to be pausing in the upswing only. How long would they need to consolidate before continuing the attempt to go higher? Summary S&P 500 bulls have a firm grip on higher prices – we‘re looking at another green day today. And if it‘s accompanied by the turning bonds, then all the better. Tech has risen, oil is a little down while sectoral breadth improves – the conditions are in place for S&P 500 to overcome 4,600. The risk-on rally hasn‘t yet run out of time, and the Mar FOMC is still far away. Upgraded rate hike prospects are being increasingly absorbed by the markets, and stocks don‘t look spooked at the moment. The bears‘ time would still come though, but let‘s first enjoy the gains our timely positioning is bringing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

AUDUSD breaks higher The Australian dollar climbs as traders wager on a hawkish shift from the Reserve Bank of Australia. On the daily chart, a break above the 30-day moving average suggests improved sentiment in the short term. The pair extended its gains after it broke the supply area around 0.7170. As sellers scramble to cover their bets, driving up bids, the rally is heading to the next resistance at 0.7210. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a temporary pullback with 0.7110 as the first support. EURGBP seeks support The euro consolidates gains amid mixed messages from the ECB. The pair found support at February 2020’s low at 0.8290, and a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests a potential turnaround. A break above the daily resistance at 0.8405 has put the single currency back on track. An overbought RSI led momentum traders to take profit. The current pullback is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.8405) which used to be a resistance. 0.8475 is the main hurdle for the reversal to gain traction. USOIL tests support WTI crude bounces higher after the EIA reported a sharp drop in US inventories. Price action is looking to consolidate its gains above the psychological level of 90.00. Sentiment remains upbeat though the bulls need to take a breather after the latest vertical ascent. 88.00 on the 20-day moving average is the immediate support. An oversold RSI may attract buying interest. A deeper retracement would test 85.00. A recovery above 92.30 could trigger momentum buying once again and resume the rally towards 95.00.

S&P 500 upswing continued amid increasing credit market support. Risk-on, finally – and commodities are on fire again, with precious metals awaiting their time in the spotlight. That‘s the big picture view as markets keep digesting the recently upgraded hawkish talk of the Fed. Or more precisely in my view, they‘re sniffing out the inevitability of the Fed having to make a U-turn later this year. Meanwhile, any temporary hint of lower Treasury yields – the reprieve is arriving – is eagerly embraced by the tech while value is disregarding that. As a result, S&P 500 market breadth is improving, and as stated yesterday, the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. Today‘s CPI data would show inflation isn‘t relenting – even White House warned about hot year on year figure coming. Coupled with the tightening job market, the question is now what remains of the budding S&P 500 upswing and bond market reprieve. It‘s becoming increasingly clear that the Fed would have to really move, and that inflation is biting and not exactly sinking input costs. That‘s where we have the cost-push inflation I talked relentlessly over many quarters last year, and wage pressures joining at the hip. It‘s really about letting copper and oil profits keep growing now, while taking off S&P 500 long ones off the table. Done, and PMs are to join next. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls had a great day, and need a solid close today against the poor inflation data. This isn‘t though likely to happen unless bonds hold up well during the regular session. Mission impossible, almost. Credit Markets HYG extended gains yesterday, and would need to defend them today. What remains of the risk-on posture, is key to determining the stock market rally longevity vs. waning power. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – I‘m not looking for setbacks during the opening selling pressure to last. The direction is firmly up. Crude Oil Crude oil is still pausing, but at the same time the bulls are readying a response. I‘m looking for continued trading in the recent range, followed by a break higher. Copper Copper is finally on the move, and the high volume speaks plenty about the buying pressure. I‘m looking for dips to be bought – I‘m not expecting a stampede of the bears taking advantage of a „shorting opportunity“. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t plunging, but the test of the bullish resolve is arriving today – let‘s see what kind of reversal it turns into. The volume looks solid, so I count on more than a daily setback as a minimum. Summary S&P 500 meets unpleasantly high inflation, which is forcing the hand of the Fed. Stocks are going to have a hard time recovering, and the bullish window of opportunity may be drastically shortened. Good to have taken profits off the table automatically through the trailing stop-loss – commodities would be more resilient. That‘s where real gains are – in real assets, as inflation is returning to the spotlight. Rightfully so as the Fed is desperately behind the curve, and precious metals need to fully get that. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Lagarde opened the door to an interest rate hike, which gave the European Central Bank a hawkish demeanor. Does it also imply more bullish gold? The ECB has awoken from its ultra-dovish lethargy. In December 2021, the central bank of the Eurozone announced that its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program would end in March 2022. Although this won’t also mean the end of quantitative easing as the ECB continues to buy assets under the APP program, the central bank will be scaling down the pace of purchases this year. Christine Lagarde, the ECB’s President, admitted it during her press conference held last week. She said: “We will stop the Pandemic Emergency Programme net asset purchases in March and then we will look at the net asset purchases under the APP.” She also left the door open for the interest rates to be raised. Of course, Lagarde did not directly signal the rate hikes. Instead, she pointed out the upside risk of inflation and acknowledged that the macroeconomic conditions have changed: We are going to use all instruments, all optionalities in order to respond to the situation – but the situation has indeed changed. You will have noticed that in the monetary policy statement that I just read, we do refer to the upside risk to inflation in our projection. So the situation having changed, we need to continue to monitor it very carefully. We need to assess the situation on the basis of the data, and then we will have to take a judgement. What’s more, Lagarde didn’t repeat her December phrase that raising interest rates in 2022 is “very unlikely”. When asked about that, she replied: as I said, I don’t make pledges without conditionalities and I did make those statements at our last press conference on the basis of the assessment, on the basis of the data that we had. It was, as all pledges of that nature, conditional. So what I am saying here now is that come March, when we have additional data, when we’ve been able to integrate in our analytical work the numbers that we have received in the last few days, we will be in a position to make a thorough assessment again on the basis of data. I cannot prejudge what that will be, but we are only a few weeks away from the closing time at which we provide the analytical work, prepare the projections for the Governing Council, and then come with some recommendations and make our decisions. It sounds very innocent, but it’s worth remembering that Lagarde is probably the most dovish central banker in the world (let’s exclude Turkish central bankers who cut interest rates amid high inflation, but they are under political pressure from Erdogan). After all, global monetary policy is tightening. For example, last week, the Bank of England hiked its main policy rate by 25 basis points and started quantitative tightening. Even the Fed will probably end quantitative easing and start raising the federal funds rate in March. In such a company, the ECB seems to be a reckless laggard. Hence, even very shy comments mean something in the case of this central bank. The markets were so impressed that they started to price in 50 basis points of rate hikes this year, probably in an exaggerated reaction.   Implications for Gold What does the latest ECB monetary policy meeting mean for the gold market? Well, maybe it wasn’t an outright revolution, but the ECB is slowly reducing its massive monetary stimulus. Although the euro area does not face the inflationary pressure of the same kind as the US, with inflation that soared to 5% in December and to 5.1% in January (according to the initial estimate), the ECB simply has no choice. As the chart below shows, inflation in the Eurozone is the highest in the whole history of euro. Additionally, in the last quarter of 2021, the GDP of the euro area finally reached its pre-pandemic level, two quarters later than in the case of the US. Europe is back in the game. The economic recovery strengthens the hawkish camp within the ECB. All of this is fundamentally bullish for gold prices. To be clear, don’t expect that Christine Lagarde will turn into Paul Volcker and hike interest rates in a rush. Given the structural problems of the euro area, the ECB will lag behind the Fed and remain relatively more dovish. However, German bond yields have recently risen, and there is still room for further increases. If the market interest rates go up more in Europe than across the pond, which is likely given the financial tightening that has already occurred in the US, the spread between American and German interest rates could narrow further (see the chart below). The narrowing divergence between monetary policies and interest rates in the US and in the Eurozone should strengthen the euro against the greenback – and it should be supportive of gold. As the chart above shows, when the spread was widening in 2012-2018, gold was in the bear market. The yellow metal started its rally at the end of 2018, just around the peak of the spread. On the other hand, if the divergence intensifies, gold will suffer. Given that Powell is expected to hike rates as soon as March, while Lagarde may only start thinking about the tightening cycle, we may have to wait a while for the spread to peak. One thing is certain: it can get hot in March! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  The market was up, but mining stocks chose to reverse. Meanwhile, gold sent a clear signal to investors. So, when everyone buys, what happens? The gold mining stocks and silver mining stocks have reversed, even though gold didn’t. The top for the former is likely in. Most developments regarding the precious metals and their immediate surroundings were a continuation of what we had seen in the previous days, but one thing was different. That one thing is particularly informative. It has trading implications, too. Without further ado, let’s jump into mining stocks. Gold miners fell. Even though they declined by just $0.06, it was profound. The miners were following gold higher during the early part of yesterday’s (Feb. 9) session, but they lost strength close to the middle thereof and were back down before the closing bell. If the gold price reversed and then declined during the day, that would have been normal. However, gold stayed up. It’s fairer to compare GDX to GLD than to compare GDX to gold continuous futures contracts, as the former have the same closing hours, so let’s take a look at what GLD did yesterday. There was no reversal. GLD simply stopped at its declining medium-term resistance line. Also, the general stock market was up yesterday. Consequently, gold mining stocks had no good reason to decline. In fact, they “should have” rallied. They didn’t – they reversed instead. This tells us that the buying power has either dried up or is drying up. When everyone who wanted to get into the market is already in it, the price can do only one thing (regardless of bullish factors) – fall. Those who are already in can then sell. Monitoring the markets for this kind of cross-sector performance is one of the more important gold trading tips. Look, I’m not saying that declines now are “guaranteed”. There are no guarantees in the markets. There might be buyers that haven’t considered mining stocks that would now enter the market, but history tells us that this is unlikely. Instead, declines are very likely to follow. Let’s focus on the GLD ETF chart one more time. As I wrote earlier, it approached its declining medium-term resistance line. Any small breakout here is likely to be invalidated just like what we saw previously in November 2021 and January 2022. This time, however, the volume is low, so gold might not have enough strength for a breakout, and it could decline right away. Junior mining stocks provide us with a perfect confirmation of the bearish narrative. I emphasized before that juniors hadn’t moved above their 50-day moving average, and that they stayed below their rising blue resistance line. Consequently – I wrote – the downtrend in them remained clearly intact. Yesterday’s reversal served as a perfect confirmation of the above. The previous breakdowns were verified in one of the most classic ways. The silver price has been quite strong recently, which is also something that we see close to the local tops. The reversals in mining stocks, the situation in gold, AND the situation in the USD Index together paint a very bearish picture for the precious metals market in the short and medium term. By “the situation in the USD Index”, I’m referring to the fact that it’s after its early-month reversal and right above its rising medium-term support line that was not successfully broken. Since the USD Index remains above its rising medium-term support line, the trend remains up. Therefore, higher – not lower – USD Index values are to be expected. All in all, it seems that gold, silver, and mining stocks are going to decline in the coming weeks (quite possibly days) and that we won’t have to wait too long for the next big decline to start. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDJPY to test major resistance The US dollar surged after consumer prices hit a 40-year high. Higher lows and then a close above the recent peak at 115.65 is an indication of strong bullish pressure. This breakout has propelled the greenback to January’s high at 116.35. Its breach could trigger a runaway rally and resume the uptrend in the medium term. An overbought RSI on the hourly chart may briefly restrain the bullish fever. 115.30 is the closest support and the bulls may see a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. XAGUSD seeks support Bullions fell back after US Treasury yields soared over hot US inflation data. The psychological level of 22.00 has proven to be a solid demand area. A break above 23.00 has forced sellers to cover, paving the way for an upward extension. 24.00 from a previous rectangle consolidation is the next resistance. A bullish breakout would bring silver back to this year’s high at 24.70. On the downside, the resistance-turned-support at 22.80 could see buying interest in case of a retracement. US 100 hits resistance The Nasdaq 100 struggles as record-high US inflation exacerbates rate hike concerns. The previous rebound has eased selling pressure but hit resistance under 15350. The subsequent pullback bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (14400), which suggests buyers’ strong interest in keeping the index afloat. Sentiment is still a tad cautious unless the bulls clear the said hurdle. Then the psychological level of 16000 could be within reach. 14500 is a key support in case of an extended consolidation.

S&P 500 upswing was rejected – the intraday comeback didn‘t succeed. Risk-off posture won the day, and the dust is settling. Day 4-5 of the rally‘s window of opportunity that I talked on Monday, is proving as a milestone. Hot CPI data has increased the bets on Mar 50bp rate hike to a virtual certainty, and asset prices didn‘t like that. Not just stocks across the board, but commodities likewise (to a modest degree only) gave up intraday gains, turning a little red. Cryptos too ended down – it had been a good decision to cash in solid open long profits in S&P 500, oil and copper. Fresh portfolio highs reached over this 12+ months period (details on my homepage): What‘s the game plan for today? As the dollar closed flat while yields rose, I‘m not ruling out a reflexive intraday rebound attempt – after all, the bears should rule in the 2nd half of Feb most clearly. As time passes, the rips would be sold into unless bonds and tech can catch a solid bid. With focus on inflation, that‘s unlikely. Medium-term S&P 500 bias continues being short while commodity dips are to be cautiously bought. Crude oil looks to need to spend a bit more time around $90 while copper defending the low $4.50 is equally important. While silver didn‘t rise by nearly as much as the red metal did, it is down approximately as much in today‘s premarket – the white metal would recover on a less headline heavy day. Remember that PMs are trading sideways to up, with decreasing sensitivity to rising 10-year yield, and have done historically well when rate hikes finally start. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 momentum has sharply shifted to the downside, and today‘s recovery attempts are likely to be sold into. I‘m keeping a keen eye on bonds, tech and risk-on in general – not expecting miracles. Credit Markets HYG keeps showing the way, resolutely down as of yesterday. With rising yields not propelling even financials, the bears have returned a few days earlier than they could – in a show of strength. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners issued a warning to gold and silver – yesterday brought a classic short-term top sign. I‘m though not ascribing great significance to it, for it isnt‘a turning point. Gold would be relatively unmoved while silver recovers however deep setback it suffers today. Crude Oil Crude oil appears to need more time to base – while the upside is being rejected for now, the selling attempts aren‘t materializing at all. Higher volume adds to short-term indecision, but strong (long) hands are to win. Copper Copper is running into selling pressure, and looks in need of consolidation in order to overcome $4.60. The red metal remains true to its reputation for volatility. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking their time, and the bulls need to act. Given that volume isn‘t disappearing, the bears have a short-term advantage. Summary S&P 500 looks to be getting under pressure soon again, today. There is no support from bonds, unless these stage an intraday risk-on reversal. The momentum is with the sellers, and rips are likely to be sold as markets digest yet more hawkish Fed action slated for March. Digest and slated are the key words – the Fed‘s hand is being forced here. Commodities and precious metals are likely to do best in what‘s coming – the 5-10 day window of bullish S&P 500 price action, is slowly closing down. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  In line with bearish bets, miners have thrown a match. Gold, however, doesn’t want to leave the ring without a fight. How long will it stay high? While gold remains relatively firm despite stock market turbulence, rising real yields, and bearish technical indicators, even a confluence of headwinds hasn’t been able to knock the yellow metal off its lofty perch. However, mining stocks haven’t been so lucky. With my short position in the GDXJ ETF offering a great risk-reward proposition, the junior gold miners’ underperformance has played out exactly as I expected. Moreover, with major spikes in volume preceding predictable sell-offs (follow the vertical dashed lines below), I’ve warned on several occasions that the GDX ETF is prone to tipping its hand – we saw this volume spike in January, which was the 2022 top (as of today). In addition, with mining investors’ power drying up by the day, the medium-term looks equally unkind. Please see below: On Wednesday, gold miners fell. Even though they declined by just $0.06, it was profound. The miners were following gold higher during the early part of Wednesday’s (Feb. 9) session, but they lost strength close to the middle thereof and were back down before the closing bell. If the gold price reversed and then declined during the day, that would have been normal. However, gold stayed up. This tells us that the buying power has either dried up or is drying up. When everyone who wanted to get into the market is already in it, the price can do only one thing (regardless of bullish factors) – fall. Those who are already in can then sell. Monitoring the markets for this kind of cross-sector performance is one of the more important gold trading tips. Look, I’m not saying that declines now are “guaranteed”. There are no guarantees in the markets. There might be buyers that haven’t considered mining stocks that would now enter the market, but history tells us that this is unlikely. Instead, declines are very likely to follow. Yesterday’s big daily decline confirmed my above comments. Gold miners declined much more than gold did, and they did so at above-average volume. The latter indicates that “down” is the true direction in which the precious metals market is heading. To that point, the HUI Index provides clues from a longer-term perspective. When we analyze the weekly chart, it highlights investors’ anxiety. For example, after hitting an intraweek high of roughly 260, the HUI Index ended the Feb. 10 session at roughly 250 – just 3.99 up from last Friday – that’s an intraweek reversal. Furthermore, with the index still in a medium-term downtrend, shades of 2013 still profoundly bearish, and sharp declines often preceded by broad head and shoulders patterns (marked with green), there are several negatives confronting the HUI Index. As such, a sharp drawdown will likely materialize sooner rather than later. Please see below: Finally, the GDXJ ETF is the gift that keeps on giving. For example, with lower highs and lower lows being part of the junior miners’ roughly one-and-a-half-year journey, false breakouts have confused many investors. However, while I’ve been warning about the weakness for some time, more downside is likely on the horizon. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 10: I emphasized before that juniors hadn’t moved above their 50-day moving average, and that they stayed below their rising blue resistance line. Consequently – I wrote – the downtrend in them remained clearly intact. Yesterday’s reversal served as a perfect confirmation of the above. The previous breakdowns were verified in one of the most classic ways. The silver price has been quite strong recently, which is also something that we see close to the local tops. The reversals in mining stocks, the situation in gold, outperformance of silver, AND the situation in the USD Index (the medium-term support held) together paint a very bearish picture for the precious metals market in the short and medium term. All in all, if the weakness continues, I expect the GDXJ ETF to challenge the $32 to $34 range. However, please note that this is my expectation for a short-term bottom. While the GDXJ ETF may record a corrective upswing at this level, the downtrend should continue thereafter, and the junior miners should fall further over the medium term. In conclusion, gold showcased its steady hand throughout the recent volatility. However, mining stocks have cracked under the pressure. With the latter’s underperformance often a bearish omen for the former, the yellow metal’s mettle may be tested over the medium term. As such, while the long-term outlooks for gold, silver, and mining stocks remain profoundly bullish, a final climax will likely unfold before their secular uptrends continue. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Given last week’s strong price action and gold’s intraday resilience, it is now very likely that gold indeed is breaking out of the multi-month consolidation triangle. Actually, this large and symmetrical triangle had been building for more than a year, at least. However, the correction in gold began on August 7th, 2020. Now it looks like the breakout is in process. Typically, traders tend to aggressively buy into such a breakout. And given Friday’s sharp spike higher, it actually looks exactly like this. Hence, expect more volatility and a sharp move higher as the direction of gold’s next move has become more obvious. Please note, that it is rather challenging to draw and determine the correct triangle, because gold has been in a tricky sideways market for such a long time and many trend-lines have been invalidated during this messy period. But at the latest, a weekly close above US$1,875 should confirm the breakout. This should unleash enough energy to push gold prices quickly towards US$1,900 and even US$1,950 within a few weeks. Obviously, that would fit very well with gold’s seasonal cycle, which is bullish until the end of February at least, but often saw gold rallying into mid of march, too. Consumer sentiment at 10-year low but Fed wants to hike and taper From a fundamental perspective, it leaves us speechless how the Fed can go on a hiking rampage while consumer sentiment is at a 10-year low. While the confidence in governments worldwide is collapsing and inflation is spiking higher, raising rates will have zero impact upon supply shortages. Instead, it will make these shortages only worse and bankrupt more companies in the supply chain. Also, it will bankrupt emerging markets, as the strong dollar has already been putting so much pressure on dollar indebted nations and creditors. It’s all a big mess, and we believe there is no way out. That’s why the warmongering industrial and military complex of the US is desperately trying to push Russia into an attack on Ukraine! Without showing any proof, the Biden administration and their mouthpiece “the mainstream media” have been pushing people’s focus on fears that Russia will soon invade Ukraine. Another noteworthy fundamental observation: Gold’s correction began in earnest when Pfizer & Biontech announced their vaccine on November 9th, 2020. In a first reaction, gold immediately sold off $150 on that same day. Many more similar large red daily candles followed over the last 16 months, destroying the confidence of the gold bugs and shifting millions of dollars to the short sellers. Now that more and more very serious questions about the vaccines are debated in the news, it would make sense for gold to run back to US$1,950. This was the level where gold was trading back on November 9th, 2020. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the weekly chart, gold has been slowly but surely progressing into the apex of the triangle over the last few months. It now looks like Gold is breaking out with vengeance. Theoretically, the resistance zone between US$1,850 and US$1,875 could still stop the bullish train. The weekly Bollinger Bands (US$1,864) sits right in this zone and should at least challenge the bulls for some days. However, the weekly stochastic has just given a new buy signal. On top, the oscillator has been making higher lows since March 2021. A measured move out of this triangle could take gold to around US$1,950 to US$1.975 until spring. The monthly Bollinger Band ($1,975) could become the logical target! Overall, the weekly chart is becoming more and more bullish, suggesting that gold can at least move around US$80 to US$100 higher. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the daily chart, gold has been struggling with the upper triangle resistance in November and January. Each time, the bears managed to push back. Now it looks like the bulls are finally successful. The fierce and sharp pullback two and half weeks ago had created a nice oversold setup which became the launching pad for the ongoing attack. Since then, the slow stochastic has been nicely turning around. This buy signal is still active and has not yet reached the overbought zone. Thanks to Friday’s big green candle, the bulls are now bending the upper Bollinger Band (US$1,858) to the upside. To conclude, the daily chart is bullish, and gold should have more upside. If the bulls continue their attack, we could see prices directly exploding for four to seven days. More likely would be a consolidation. Only with prices below US$1,835 the breakout would have failed. In that rather unlikely case, the picture could quickly turn ugly again. Conclusion: Gold is breaking out! In mid of December, gold made an important low around US$1,752. Back then, most gold bugs had enough and did throw in the towel after a very difficult and messy 16-month correction. Gold, silver and the mining stock had become the most hated asset. But actually, all that gold might have been doing was building an epic base and a launch pad to start the next leg higher within its bull market. Overall, we expect that Gold is breaking out after a short consolidation! The successful breakout above resistance between US$1,850 and US$1,875 should happen within the next few days or weeks. This should then lead to higher prices and gold will likely run towards US$1,950, at least. However, we are not sure yet whether this will also bring an attack towards the round number resistance at US$2,000. Given the fact, that gold usually starts to struggle somewhere in spring, the ongoing rally could still be just a counter-trend move within the larger ongoing consolidation/correction. Hence, we are short-term very bullish, mid-term neutral and long-term very bullish for gold. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 13th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

S&P 500 opening range gave way to heavy selling as 4,470s didn‘t hold. Risk-on was overpowered, and the flight to Treasuries didn‘t support tech. And that‘s most medium-term worrying – stocks don‘t look to have found a floor, and gave up the opportunity for a tight range trading on Friday all too easily. The prospects of war were that formidable opponent, against which the S&P 500 didn‘t really stand a chance. So, the downtrend has reasserted itself, and HYG doesn‘t look to have found a floor – junk bonds are leading to the downside, with energy, materials and financials standing out, which isn‘t exactly a bullish constellation. The other key beneficiaries of the safe haven bid were gold, miners and oil. Silver lagged as copper retreated all too easily, but I‘m looking for that to change. As for Monday‘s session in stocks, the odds of a countertrend move to the upside, at least intraday, are good. Just a quick glance at the dollar, gold, oil and Bitcoin would reveal the extent of possible stabilization. Stabilization, not a reversal, because HYG is unlikely to turn up, and I‘m not looking for stocks to start moving up again. Thursday marked a high point in the countertrend rally, which was cut short after some 5 days only. Sideways to a little up is the best the bulls can hope for on Monday. Funny though how with all eyes on Eastern Europe, the inflation and steep rate hike bets receded? What a Super Bowl! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Whatever backing and filling there could have been, the S&P 500 didn‘t hesitate, and is pointing to the downside. The bears are back, and aren‘t yielding. Credit Markets Credit markets went decidedly risk-off, and a little sideways reprieve wouldn‘t be surprising. But it would change nothing as the bets on rising rates, are on, and the 2-year Treasury is forcing the Fed‘s hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold came alive on the tensions escalation news – the uptrend is alive and well indeed, even without these geopolitical developments. The upswing wasn‘t really sold into. Crude Oil Crude oil correction came to an abrupt close, and it‘s unlikely black gold would dip in the current environment. The upcoming corrections would be bought as much as the previous one, and given the oil stocks performance, wouldn‘t likely reach far to the downside. Copper Copper is under pressure, and not holding up as well as other commodities. Base metals though are breaking higher, which is why I‘m looking at Friday‘s red metal trading as a temporary setback only. Bitcoin and Ethereum The floor in cryptos is heralding a tight range day – it‘s good for risk-on that Friday‘s downswing isn‘t immediately continuing, it‘s buying some time. Summary S&P 500 bears are back in the driver‘s seat, and the rush to Treasuries took the spotlight off rate hikes – to a small degree. Not that the Fed would be changing course on geopolitics, we aren‘t there yet. To the contrary, credit markets are pressuring the central bank to move – as decisively as possible in the overleveraged system – and Powell would find it hard not to deliver. Come autumn latest, the strain on the real economy would be hard to ignore – real estate is feeling the pinch already. Stock bulls can‘t expect higher prices unless tech recovers, and we look to be still far from that moment. Real assets with safe haven appeal are likely to do best, and the same goes for the dollar temporarily too. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

TSLA drops nearly 5% on Friday as macro factors in charge. All EV stocks LCID, Chinese names suffer the same fate. Tesla once again is targetting its 200-day moving average. Tesla (TSLA) followed many EV names (all, if we are correct) lower on Friday as macro factors took charge over equity markets. The dominant theme so far in 2022 has been one of rising rates and inflationary pressures. This has led to high growth and tech names underperforming, while energy and financial stocks have been the place to be. That is likely to remain the theme for at least the next quarter if not also Q2. Russia and Ukraine tensions have pushed the oil price above $90, and financial stocks benefit from higher interest rates. Growth stocks, however, do not benefit from higher interest rates as investors look for businesses with cash. With higher interest rates, future cash flows become less valuable. So of the three names mentioned, Tesla, Rivian (RIVN) or Lucid (LCID), we would not want to currently be long any of them. We expect TSLA to perform best of the three due to its market-leading position and revenue, but this sector is out of favour and likely to remain so. Tesla Stock News The latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) confirms what we saw from Chinese EV companies earlier. Deliveries for January were down versus December. This is due to the lunar new year in China. Tesla sold 59,845 vehicles in January, down from 70,847 China-made vehicles in December. The Chinese electric vehicle market remains the largest EV market in the world, helped by government incentives and population demand. Tesla Stock Forecast Tesla remains in the strong downtrend identified earlier this year. $945 was tested multiple times as resistance and failed. This has resulted in the recent pullback. Now $824 remains as the 200-day moving average. Below we have trendline support at $752. The 200-day is the key level. Tesla has not closed below its 200-day moving average since June 2021. It has broken the 200-day on an intraday basis several times since but always failed to close below. Notice how volume has steadily been declining in Tesla this month, despite some hugely volatile days. This is indicative of a lack of conviction in the stock. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

USDJPY hits double top The US dollar recovers as hot CPI fuels bets of a 50 basis points hike in March. The rally came to a halt at January’s high (116.35). Profit-taking compounded by new selling triggered a liquidation below 115.50. The medium-term trajectory remains upward and the bulls may be eager to buy the dips. 114.90 is the next support and an oversold RSI may attract bargain hunters. Further down, the daily support at 114.20 is a major demand zone in case of a deeper correction. A close above the double top could resume the uptrend. XAGUSD tests resistance Bullion rallies over investors’ flight to safety. Silver continues to climb from the daily support at 22.00. Following a brief pullback, a break above the recent high at 23.70 indicates strong buying interest. A bullish MA cross is a sign of acceleration to the upside. The psychological level of 24.00 is the next hurdle and a breakout would bring the price to January’s peak at 24.70. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a limited fallback; if so the previous low at 22.90 would be the closest support. GER 40 tests critical floor The Dax 40 remains under pressure over Russia-Ukraine tensions. The last rebound’s failure to achieve a new high showed that the bears were still in charge. Trend followers are likely to sell into strength as sentiment remains wary. The index saw bids in the critical demand zone around 14900 which has been tested several times in the last four months. A bearish breakout would trigger a broader sell-off and put a serious dent in the medium-term rally. The bulls will need to reclaim 15500 before they could turn things around.

  Gold continues to benefit from the market turmoil and has apparently forgotten about medium-term problems. Meanwhile, the rising USD and a hawkish Fed await confrontation. With financial markets whipsawing after every Russia-Ukraine headline, volatility has risen materially in recent days. With whispers of a Russian invasion on Feb. 16 (which I doubt will be realized), the game of hot potato has uplifted the precious metals market. However, as I noted on Feb. 14, while the developments are short-term bullish, the PMs’ medium-term fundamentals continue to decelerate. For example, while the general stock market remains concerned about a Russian invasion, U.S. Treasury yields rallied on Feb. 14. With risk-off sentiment often born in the bond market, the safety trade benefiting the PMs didn’t materialize in U.S. Treasuries. As a result, bond traders aren’t demonstrating the same level of fear. Please see below: Source: Investing.com Furthermore, while the potential conflict garners all of the attention, the fundamental issues that upended the PMs in 2021 remain unresolved. For example, with inflation surging, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Feb. 14 that “the last four [Consumer Price Index] reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the U.S. economy.” “The inflation that we’re seeing is very bad for low- and moderate-income households,” he said. “People are unhappy, consumer confidence is declining. This is not a good situation. We have to reassure people that we’re going to defend our inflation target and we’re going to get back to 2%.” As a result, Bullard wants a 50 basis point rate hike in March, and four rate hikes by July. Please see below: Source: CNBC Likewise, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is much less hawkish than Bullard, she also supports a rate hike in March. Source: CNBC As a result, while the PMs can hide behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the short term, their medium-term fundamental outlooks are profoundly bearish. As mentioned, Bullard highlighted inflation’s impact on consumer confidence, and for a good reason. With the University of Michigan releasing its Consumer Sentiment Index on Feb. 11, the report revealed that Americans’ optimism sank to “its worst level in a decade, falling a stunning 8.2% from last month and 19.7% from last February.” Chief Economist, Richard Curtin said: “The recent declines have been driven by weakening personal financial prospects, largely due to rising inflation, less confidence in the government's economic policies, and the least favorable long term economic outlook in a decade.” “The impact of higher inflation on personal finances was spontaneously cited by one-third of all consumers, with nearly half of all consumers expecting declines in their inflation adjusted incomes during the year ahead.” Please see below: To that point, I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that U.S. President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects often move inversely to inflation. With the dynamic still on full display, immediate action is needed to maintain his political survival. Please see below: To explain, the light blue line above tracks the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in inflation, while the dark blue line above tracks Biden’s approval rating. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the U.S. President remains in a highly perilous position. Moreover, with U.S. midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the Democrats can’t wait nine to 12 months for inflation to calm down. As a result, there is a lot at stake politically in the coming months. As further evidence, as inflation reduces real incomes and depresses consumer confidence, the Misery Index also hovers near crisis levels. Please see below: To explain, the blue line above tracks the Misery Index. For context, the index is calculated by subtracting the unemployment rate from the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI. In a nutshell, when inflation outperforms the unemployment rate (the blue line rises), it creates a stagflationary environment in America. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the Misery Index is approaching a level that coincided with the global financial crisis (GFC). As a result, reversing the trend is essential to avoid a U.S. recession. As such, with inflation still problematic and the writing largely on the wall, the market-implied probability of seven rate hikes by the Fed in 2022 is nearly 93% (as of Feb. 10). Please see below: Ironically, while consumers and the bond market fret over inflation, U.S. economic growth remains resilient. While I’ve been warning for months that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, continued strength should turn hawkish expectations into hawkish realities. To that point, the chart above shows that futures traders expect the U.S. Federal Funds Rate to hit 1.75% in 2022 (versus 0.08% now). However, Michael Darda, Chief Economist at MKM Partners, expects the Fed’s overnight lending rate to hit 3.5% before it’s all said and done. “We have this booming economy with high inflation and a rapid recovery in the labor market – much different relative to the last cycle,” he said. “The Fed is behind the curve this time. They are going to have to do more.”  Singing a similar tune, John Thorndike, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, told clients that “inflation is now here, [but] the narrative is that inflation goes away and markets tend to struggle with change. It is more likely than not that real yields and policy rates need to move above inflation during this cycle.” The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine drama distracts the PMs from the fundamental realities that confront them over the medium term, their outlooks remain profoundly bearish. Moreover, while I’ve noted on numerous occasions that the algorithms will enhance momentum in either direction, their influence wanes materially as time passes. As such, while headline risk is material in the short-term, history shows that technicals and fundamentals reign supreme over longer time horizons. Thus, while the recent flare-up is an unfortunate event that hurts our short position, the medium-term developments that led to our bearish outlook continue to strengthen. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 14, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the primary driver moving the financial markets. However, while the PMs will ride the wave as far as it takes them, they ignored that the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields also rallied. Moreover, with Fed officials ramping up the hawkish rhetoric, the PMs' fundamental outlook is more bearish now than it was in 2021 (if we exclude the Russia-Ukraine implications). As a result, while the timeline may have been delayed, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight. For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Pause but more likely a rebound, is what comes next for S&P 500. Closing above the 200-day moving average is possible, but more is needed for a trend reversal in this correction. Credit Markets Credit markets moderated their pace of decline, and there‘s no risk-on posture apparent yet. We may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold are benefiting from the tensions, but they‘ll just as easily give up some of these gains next. What‘s important though, is the continued trend of making higher highs and higher lows. Crude Oil Crude oil looks also likely to lose some of the prior safe haven bid, but similarly to precious metals, the trend is higher, and corrections are more or less eagerly bought. Only should the Fed‘s actions harm the real economy, would oil prices meaningfully decline. Copper Copper is rebounding, but still remains trading in a not too hot fashion – the red metal is still trailing behind other commodities significantly. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos deciding to go higher, is a positive sign for stocks as well – the volume looks to be noticeable enough at the close later today to lend the upswing credibility. Summary S&P 500 bulls have the opportunity today, but the market remains as headline sensitive as everything else. Treasuries stabilizing or even moving higher while funds flow out of the dollar, that would be a bullish confirmation – and the same goes for precious metals not getting hammered, but finding a decent floor. The point is that war jitters calming down when Russia doesn‘t take the bait, makes assets to continue with their prior trends and focus, which is Fed and tightening. The bets on 50bp rate hike in Mar went down recently, and when they start rising again, it would make sense to deploy more capital – including into oil above $90, give or take a buck. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Britain's consumer price index fell 0.1% in January, not as sharply as analysts had expected; they were expecting an average fall of 0.2%. Year over year inflation reached 5.5%, a new record since March 1992. There are plenty of signs that peak inflation is near, but the big question is how quickly price growth will return to its 2% target and what effort it will take from the Bank of England. Among signs of a cooling inflation outlook we highlight the second month of slowing producer prices to 13.6% yoy in January against 13.9% and 15.2% in the previous two months. This is an early indicator which allows us to expect less pressure from commodity prices on producers further down the line, which will cool consumer inflation in the coming months. Among the early indicators of inflation around the world is also the Chinese producer price index, which noted a slowdown in January to 9.1% from 10.3% a month earlier and a peak of 13.5% in October. The publication of the UK inflation accelerated the rise in the pound, sending GBPUSD above 1.3570.

EURUSD bounces off support The US dollar retreats as the Fed’s half-point hike in March remains uncertain. The euro’s break above the daily resistance at 1.1480 boosted buyers’ confidence after a sell-off in January. It bounced off 1.1280 at the base of the recent bullish breakout. The support also is right next to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1265) making it an area of congestion. A close above the intermediate resistance (1.1370) would attract more buying interest. Then an extension above 1.1490 may fuel a rally towards 1.1600. GBPUSD awaits breakout The sterling holds well as Britain’s wage growth beats expectations in December. The current rebound came under pressure in the supply zone around 1.3660 which was the origin of a sharp drop in late January. An overbought RSI led to some profit-taking but the pound has found support above 1.3480. The bears’ failed attempts to push lower indicates strong demand. A bullish close above 1.3640 would lift offers towards last month’s high at 1.3750. The daily support at 1.3370 is a key floor in keeping the rally intact. XAUUSD seeks support Gold drifts lower on signs of de-escalation in Ukraine. A break above last November’s high at 1875 may have put the precious metal back on track. However, the rally ran out of steam in the short term with the RSI shooting into the overbought territory. The price is taking a breather and buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. A drop below 1852 may wash out weak hands and deepen the correction towards 1830. 1880 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could propel bullion to last June’s high at 1910.

S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that: (...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rebounded on low volume but that wouldn‘t be an issue in a healthy bull market – the trouble is that this 2022 price action isn‘t very healthy.Credit MarketsHYG didn‘t trade on a strong note, and the rise in yields continues almost unabated. This is what I meant yesterday by saying that we may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals suffered a temporary setback – they easily gave up some of the safe haven gains, which isn‘t surprising. The bulls though haven‘t lost control, and that‘s key.Crude OilCrude oil dip was bought, and there wasn‘t much bearish conviction to start with. The general uptrend is likely to continue, and $90 appears likely to hold over the next few days definitely.CopperCopper is now in for some backing and filling, but managed to catch up with other commodities a little yesterday. The red metal remains range bound, but making good bullish progress.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are paring back yesterday‘s advance, and unless the mid Feb lows give, they‘re likely to muddle through with a modest bullish bias till the attention shifts to the Fed again.SummaryS&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems slipping away with each 1D or 4H candle, and I‘m not counting on the credit markets to ride to stocks‘ rescue. The commodities bull though is likely to carry on with little interference – and so does the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing. Slowdown in economic growth with rampant inflation and the realization that the Fed tightening hasn‘t had the effect, is awaiting, and would usher in strong gold and silver gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Binance Coin takes a small step back this morning due to some profit-taking.BNB bulls hold all the cards as the relief rally is not over yet.Expect a pop above $444-$452 with a profit target set at $480 for the moment.Binance Coin (BNB) price action shot back above the red descending trend line yesterday with a massive relief rally that lifted market sentiment. With that, the downtrend looks to be broken, and an uptrend could be on the cards if bulls can take out the $444-$452 resistance barrier with a triple top formation, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the longer-term pivotal level all coincide in this region. Once through there, expect the next stage to be set for a move towards $480 with the 200-day SMA coming in, returning another 10%.Binance Coin set for the second phase in the recovery rallyBinance Coin is undergoing some profit-taking this morning after the solid relief rally from yesterday (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-decentraland-binance-dogecoin-asian-wrap-16-feb-video-202202160214) that has lifted market sentiment and saw some decent inflows into markets. On the way up, bulls hit some resistance from the double top from February 08 and January 21 and, in the process, made it a triple top resistance. This, together with the already known $452 and the 55-day SMA coming in at $445, makes it a substantial (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/binance-coin-must-break-out-above-this-level-before-bnb-can-retest-660-202202152150) barrier that will need to be broken to prove that the relief rally still has plenty of juice to go.Expect thus some profit-taking today, a little bit on the back foot with $419 as support to bounce off back to $445. Some more positive signals coming from the Russia-Ukraine developments could be the needed additional catalyst to push through this difficult barrier. The next target is set at $480, with the 200-day SMA falling in line with that considerable number, resulting in probably the same profit-taking pattern (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-and-shiba-inu-price-climbs-as-binance-smart-chain-whales-accumulate-meme-coins-202202151719) as BNB price action shows today.BNB/USD daily chartOverall, the US keeps claiming that the situation in Central-Europe remains precarious and could see an escalation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-binance-coin-and-decentraland-european-wrap-11-february-202202111055) any time now. Once those headlines hit the wires, expect the whole cryptocurrency space to collapse and for there to be a massive pullback from investors, with BNB price falling back initially to $389. Depending on the severity of the attacks, another push lower towards $340 would be the logical outcome and result in BNB price shedding 22% of its value.

  The Natural Gas flight has passed its first goal and is on its way to the second target. Here is a map showing the route to Natgas’ new destination. In today’s edition, I will provide some updates on recent market developments for Natural Gas futures (NGF22) following my last projections published on Friday, Feb. 11, for which the stop was also updated on Wednesday. Trade Plan We all love it when a trade plan comes together! The market has to cope with stronger demand to fuel increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Therefore, you can see that the rebounding floor (support) provided was ideal for the Henry Hub, which is also supported by unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to turn its momentum back up. The recommended objective of $4.442 was almost hit yesterday. However, it was achieved this morning (during the European session) and the $4.818 level is now the next goal. As I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, my recommended stop, which was located just below the $ 3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), was recently lifted up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven). Now it could be lifted one more time up to 4.180, which corresponds to the 50% distance between the initial entry and target 1. By doing so, the second half of the trade would become optimally managed. Alternatively, you can also use an Average True Range (ATR) multiple to determine a different level (above breakeven) that may better suit your trading style. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned levels of our trade plan: DHenry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) That’s all folks for today. Happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The Ukrainian crisis is not likely to recede into the background anytime soon. Promising Russian statements about the withdrawal of troops are refuted by the West and Ukraine, near where the exercises are taking place. There was also a series of accusations and denials about the shootout in Donbas in the morning, which triggered impulsive selling of risky assets. The local momentum of the markets' decline was less than what we saw on Friday following Biden's statements about Russia's impending attack on Ukraine. Still, the latest news clearly shows that we should not hope for smooth and quick exhaustion of the conflict and a favourable resolution in the coming days. So far, however, there are more signals that Eastern European politicians still want a diplomatic, not forceful solution, which forms a modest reduction in the pull towards security. The Fed was also on the side of the stock market bulls yesterday. The published minutes of the January meeting were not as hawkish as investors had expected. The FOMC at the end of last month did not consider a 50-point rate hike in March and did not talk about the need for seven hikes this year. Then we had the labour market report, which showed strong growth in employment and wages, and even later came frightening figures about inflation accelerating to 40-year highs. Yesterday the retail sales figures were added to it. Americans bought harder than expected in January, and some observers attribute that to a rush of demand due to inflation fears and a spike in auto and apparel prices. The Fed might revise its view to a more hawkish one after bullish reports, but the markets did breathe a sigh of relief, managing to pull the S&P500 and Russell2000 into the green at the end of Wednesday. Meanwhile, the S&P500 and Dow Jones continue to struggle behind the 200-day moving average, with no victory signals for the bulls or the bears in this local battle. Investors and traders should pay close attention to this struggle, as a sharp pullback to one side or the other could set the direction for the days and weeks ahead.

Thanks to Fed minutes, the S&P 500 closed modestly up, but could have taken the stronger credit markets cue. Instead, the upswing was sold into – the selling pressure is there, and neither value nor tech took the opportunity to rise, even against the backdrop of a weakening dollar. That‘s quite telling – the stock market correction hasn‘t run its course yet, and whatever progress the bulls make, is being countered convincingly. Precious metals adored the combo of yields and dollar turning down – and reacted with the miners‘ outperformance. The silver to copper ratio is basing, and the white metal looks to have better short-term prospects than the red one. Still in the headline sensitive environment we‘re in, gold would be stronger than silver until inflation is recognized for what it is. If there‘s one thing that the aftermath of Fed minutes showed, it‘s that the commodities superbull is alive and well, and that precious metals likewise are acting very positively in this tightening cycle. Suffice to say that gold has a track record of turning up once the rate hikes finally start… Excellent, the portfolio is positioned accordingly. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rebound is getting suspect, and should stocks close on a weak note today, it‘s clear that today‘s wobbling Philly Fed Manufacturing Index won‘t be balanced out by the succession of Fed speakers – the signs of real economy headwinds are here. Credit Markets HYG upswing could have had broader repercussions, and it‘s quite telling it didn‘t. The risk-on turn would likely be sold into, with consequences. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals suffered a temporary setback only indeed – I‘m looking for the gains to continue as the miners outperformance just can‘t be overlooked. Crude Oil Crude oil dipped some more, and the dip was again bought. Given the late session wavering, I‘m looking for some more sideways and volatile trading ahead before the upswing reasserts itself. Copper Copper continues trading sideways, but with bullish undertones. More consolidation before another upswing attempt is probable. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning down, but still haven‘t broken either way out of the current range. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are sending a message of caution. Summary S&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems increasingly slipping away given that the buyers couldn‘t defend gains after Fed minutes release. The upturn in credit markets is likely to prove of fleeting shelf life, and would exert downward pressure upon stocks. As I wrote yesterday (and talked extensively within today‘s article chart captions), the commodities bull is likely to carry on with little interference – and so would the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing, and the beginning of rate hikes would mark further headwinds for the real economy at a time of persistent inflation that could be perhaps brought down to 4-5% official rate late this year (which would leave the mainstream wondering why it just isn‘t transitory somewhat more – what an irony). The Fed‘s tools to be employed are simply insufficient to break the inflation‘s back, that‘s it. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

AUDUSD attempts to break out The Australian dollar finds support from a low jobless rate in January. The pair has previously hit resistance in the supply zone around 0.7250. This is a daily resistance from the sell-off in late January. Then a recovery above 0.7180 suggests solid buying pressure before a bearish mood could take hold again. A break above the key hurdle could initiate a bullish reversal above this year’s peak (0.7310). Otherwise, a prolonged consolidation may test the demand area between 0.7100 and 0.7150. NZDUSD tests resistance The New Zealand dollar climbed higher as the RBNZ can lift its cash rates next week. Price action came under pressure on the 30-day moving average (0.6730). However, strong support at 0.6590 builds a case for a potential reversal. A break above 0.6690 is an encouraging sign leaving 0.6730 as the last obstacle before a bullish extension. A broader rally would bring the kiwi back to January’s high at 0.6890. In the meantime, an overbought RSI caused a brief pullback towards 0.6660. SPX 500 consolidates The S&P 500 struggles as the Russia-Ukraine crisis persists. The previous rebound has met stiff selling pressure over the 30-day moving average (4590). A pullback has sent the RSI into the oversold territory, triggering some buyers’ interest in racking up the bargain. The rebound is still valid as long as the index stays above the critical area of 4280. A break above 4480 may extend gains to the double top at 4590 which is an important resistance. 4360 is the immediate support if the sideways action lingers.

Bitcoin price gets caught in a bearish triangle as tensions in Ukraine flare up again. Ethereum price returns to pivotal support, money repatriation goes into the second day. XRP price in pennant ready for a bearish breakout under the current sentiment. Cryptocurrencies are on the back foot as investors are getting worried about the escalating situation between Ukraine and Russia, as more reports come in from shots in the Donbas region near Luhansk. As the situation does not seem to de-escalate, investors are pulling their money out of what was believed to be the start of a solid and longer-term relief rally that is stalling at the moment. With more downside pressure to come, expect all significant cryptocurrencies to fall back to supportive pivotal levels. Bitcoin price falls into a bearish triangle, set to dip back below $40,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price is getting battered on Thursday after a fade on Wednesday that could still be attributed to some short-term profit-taking. The extension of the falls seems to confirm that sentiment is yet again dipping below zero towards risk-off. Investors pulling out their funds preemptively is reflected with the sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index, where the sell-side demand is outpacing the buy-side demand. In this context, Bitcoin price will remain under pressure for the rest of the week and could be set to slip below $40,000 in the coming days as the situation in Ukraine is set to deteriorate again, potentially inflicting further damage to the market mood. BTC price sees bulls unable to hold price action above $44,088 and in the process is forming a descending trend line that, together with the base at $41,756, is forming a bearish triangle. Expect Bitcoin valuation to decline further as the tensions around Luhansk increase by the hour. Once the $41,756 support is broken, the road is open for a nosedive towards $39,780 with the $40,000 psychological level broken yet again to the downside. BTC/USD daily chart A hail mary could be provided by the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $42,340, which already provided support on February 9 and February 15. With that move, a sudden breakthrough in the peace talks could become the needed catalyst to improve the situation and dislocate Bitcoin price action from the drag of the geopolitical news that is weighing. Bitcoin would see the demand on the buy-side blow up and see a big pop above $44,088. Ethereum bulls are breaking their jaws on the 55-day SMA as the price fades further Ethereum (ETH) price is getting crushed against the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,143, with bulls unfit to push and try to close price action above it. After three failed attempts in a row, it is becoming clear that the bullish support is wearing thin as, on Tuesday, the daily candle closed above there, and even if the next day ETH price opened above again, it closed below the 55-day SMA. On Wednesday, finally, both the open and the closing price were below the 55-day SMA. This proves that sentiment has shifted in just three trading days and looks set to fade further away from the 55-day SMA on Friday. Expect going forward in the next coming hours that bulls will get squeezed against the wall at $3,018 with both a pivotal level and the $3,000 marker a few dollars below there. As tensions mount, expect some more negative headlines, a breach in defense of the bulls with even the monthly pivot at $2,929 getting involved in the crosshairs. Depending on the severity and the further deterioration of the political situation in Ukraine and the correction in the stock markets, it is possible to see a nosedive towards $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart Global market sentiment is hanging on the lips of Ukraine and the geopolitical situation. With that, it is clear that once the situation gets resolved or de-escalates, markets can shift 180 degrees in a matter of seconds. That same rule applies to cryptocurrencies where Ethereum could pop back above the 55-day SMA and even set sail for $3,391, breaking the high of February and flirting with new highs for 2022. Bulls joining the rally will want to keep a close eye and be mindful of the RSI, as that would start to flirt with being overbought and, from there on, limiting any further big moves in the hours or next trading days to come. Ethereum short squeeze could trigger a spike to $4,000 XRP price set to lose 10% of market value as headline news breaks down relief rally Ripple (XRP) price is stuck in a pennant and is close to a breakout that looks set to be a bearish one. As global markets are continuing the fade from Wednesday, XRP price is breaking below the recent low and sees bears hammering down on the ascending side of the pennant. As more negative headlines cross the wires, expect this to add ammunition for bears to continue and start breaking the pennant to the downside. XRP price will look for support on the next support at hand, which comes in at $0.78, and depending on the severity of the news flow, that level should hold again as it did on February 14. If that is not the caseany further downside will be cut short by the double bottom around $0.75 from February 12 and 13 and the 55-day SMA coming in at or around that area. With that move, the RSI will be triggering some "oversold" red flags and see bears booking profit. XRP/USD daily chart A false bearish breakout could easily see bears trapped on entering on the break to the downside out of the pennant as bulls go in for the squeeze. That would mean that price shoots up towards $0.88 and takes out this week's high. Bears would be forced to change sides and join the buy-side demand to close their losing positions, adding to even more demand and possibly hitting $0.90 in the process. XRP set to explode towards $1.00, bulls hopeful over SEC vs Ripple case

Ever think of commodities when trading currencies? Or vice-versa? What do Brazilian reals have to do with soybeans, or Indian rupees with diamonds? Let’s start by defining what could be called a commodity currency (or commodity pair). Generally, a commodity currency represents a currency from a country or geographical zone that produces specific commodities which will account for most of its exports. Some examples of currencies which could be considered as commodity currencies are presented in the following table: Currencies Top Material Exports Argentine peso (ARS) Soybean meal ($8.81B), corn ($6.19B), delivery trucks ($3.83B), soybeans ($3.47B), soybean oil ($3.38B), bran ($292M), other vegetable residues and waste ($232M), and ground nut oil ($131M) Australian dollar (AUD) Iron ore ($67.5B), coal briquettes ($51.5B), petroleum gas ($34.1B), gold ($25.4B), aluminium oxide ($5.6B), sheep and goat meat ($3.07B), and wool ($2.26B) Brazilian real (BRL) Soybeans ($26.1B), crude petroleum ($24.3B), iron ore ($23B), corn ($7.39B), sulfate chemical wood pulp ($7.35B), poultry meat ($6.55B), frozen bovine meat ($5.67B) and raw sugar ($5.33B) Canadian dollar (CAD) Crude petroleum ($67.8B), cars ($40.9B), gold ($14.6B), refined Petroleum ($12.3B), vehicle parts ($10.8B), sawn wood ($6.35B), raw aluminium ($5.45B), potassic fertilizers ($5.27B), rapeseed ($3.23B), and rapeseed oil ($2.6B) Indian rupee (INR) Refined petroleum ($39.2B), diamonds ($22.5B), packaged medicaments ($15.8B), jewellery ($14.1B), cars ($7.15B), Rice ($6.9B), Crustaceans ($4.67B), and Non-Retail Pure Cotton Yarn ($2.86B) Indonesian rupiah (IDR) Coal briquettes ($20.3B), palm oil ($15.3B), petroleum gas ($8.32B), cars ($4.52B), gold ($4.01B), lignite ($2.91B), stearic acid ($2.76B), uncoated paper ($2.37B), and coconut oil ($1.9B) Malaysian ringgit (MYR) Integrated circuits ($63B), refined petroleum ($17.8B), petroleum gas ($11.5B), semiconductor devices ($9.65B), palm oil ($8.91B), rubber apparel ($4.37B), other vegetable oils ($1B), copper powder ($873M), asphalt mixtures ($417M), and platinum clad metals ($127M) Mexican peso (MXN) Cars ($53.1B), computers ($32.4B), vehicle parts ($31.2B), delivery trucks ($26.9B), crude petroleum ($26.6B), tractors ($10.7B), beer ($5.07B), tropical fruits ($3.6B), and railway freight cars ($3.57B) New Zealand dollar (NZD) Concentrated milk ($5.73B), sheep and goat meat ($2.62B), rough wood ($2.31B), butter ($2.29B), frozen bovine meat ($2.09B), casein ($613M), and honey ($237M) Nigerian naira (NGN) Crude Petroleum ($46B), petroleum gas ($7.78B), scrap vessels ($2.26B), flexible metal tubing ($2.1B), and cocoa beans ($715M) Peruvian nuevo sol (PEN) Copper ore ($12.2B), gold ($6.76B), refined petroleum ($2.21B), zinc ore ($1.65B), and refined copper ($1.62B), animal meal and pellets ($1.54B), lead ore ($1.01B), fish oil ($434M), and buckwheat ($139M) Russian ruble (RUB) Crude petroleum ($123B), refined petroleum ($66.2B), petroleum gas ($26.3B), coal briquettes ($17.6B), wheat ($8.14B), semi-finished iron ($6.99B), coal tar oil ($4.49B), raw nickel ($4.03B), and nitrogenous fertilizers ($3.05B) South African rand (ZAR) Gold ($16.8B), platinum ($9.62B), cars ($7.61B), iron ore ($6.73B), and coal briquettes ($5.05B), manganese ore ($3.16B), chromium ore ($1.92B), titanium ore ($583M), and niobium, tantalum, vanadium, and zirconium ore ($480M) Swiss franc (CHF) Gold ($59B), packaged medicaments ($46.2B), blood, antisera, vaccines, toxins, and cultures ($32.9B), base metal watches ($13.6B), jewellery ($10.9B), precious metal watches ($7.32B), and hydrazine or hydroxylamine derivatives ($501M) US dollar (USD) Refined petroleum ($84.9B), crude petroleum ($61.9B), cars ($56.9B), integrated circuits ($41.4B), vehicle parts ($41.2B), medical instruments ($29.5B), gas turbines ($28.1B), aircraft parts ($16.3B), and orthopedic appliances ($12.1B) Vietnamese dong (VND) Broadcasting equipment ($42.3B), telephones ($18.2B), integrated circuits ($15.5B), textile footwear ($10.6B), and leather footwear ($6.43B), coconuts, Brazil nuts, and cashews ($3.16B), fuel wood ($2.05B), cement ($1.39B), metal-clad products ($1.37B), and cinnamon ($175M) West African CFA franc (XOF) Gold ($11.66B), cocoa beans ($3.84B), refined petroleum ($2.64B), rubber ($1.08B), raw cotton ($1.04B), and crude petroleum ($941M), cocoa paste ($795M), other oily seeds ($407M), Phosphoric Acid ($346M), coconuts, Brazil nuts, and cashews ($280M), ground nuts ($192M), zinc ore ($173M), raw zinc ($155M), electricity ($141M), cocoa shells ($115M), calcium phosphates ($95.7M), radioactive chemicals ($59.6M), rough wood ($59.5M), raw copper ($49.4M), Petroleum Gas ($42.5M), non-fillet frozen fish ($356.1M), other vegetable residues ($25.4M), and aluminium ore ($3.17M) Data: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) (Bold: products which the country/economic area was the world’s biggest exporter in 2019) For active trading purposes, the ones highlighted in yellow would be characterised as freely floating and more liquid currencies. Thus, they would also be more accessible and less costly (with lower fees) to trade. For hedging purposes, the others would present some advantages to the commercialisation of their associated natural resources, even though they would rather be considered more exotic currencies. Charts: Here is a representation of some key commodity currencies presented in the above table on a weekly timeframe against the US dollar (reference currency): Each chart was represented within 2-standard deviation Bollinger Bands based on a 20-period simple moving average (in orange), a 50-period simple moving average (blue curve), a 200-period simple moving average (the black curve) and in the pane below is a 14-period relative strength index (in blue) to which was applied a 9-period simple moving average (red curve). All those charts are displayed over a 2-year historical period. In the next article I’ll focus on highlighting some correlations which may exist between key natural resources and the currencies in which they are usually traded. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

As the global markets move away from recent concerns of war and Fed rate hikes, I believe both Small and Mid Cap indexes are uniquely positioned to potentially surge 7% to 11%, or more, from recent lows. My analysis suggests both the Small and Mid Cap Indexes may have moved excessively lower over the past 30+ trading days. They may be poised for a unique opportunity and a substantial price rally if the global markets continue to move away from extreme risk events. As the US Fed and global central banks position to combat inflation while war tensions build near Ukraine, I believe the US Small and Mid Cap Indexes are uniquely undervalued and ready for a potential move higher. The recent recovery in the US major indexes may be evidence of strong bullish price momentum underlying the US Major Indexes. I believe that foreign capital is moving into various US assets to avoid foreign market/currency risks. The US Small and Mid Cap Indexes seem like perfect opportunities for this capital deployment. IWM May Rally 12 to 14% - Targeting $238 to $240 This Weekly IWM chart highlights a support level near $191.00 and a recent Three River Morning Star bottom reversal pattern near $194.40. It also highlights the previous range-based trading and dual Pennant/Flag setups using shaded BLUE and YELLOW Rectangles. I believe IWM has a solid potential to rally back to near the $220 level before finding resistance (+7.25%). If this bullish price momentum continues, IWM may rally to levels above $238 to $240. The global markets may have recently focused too much on the US Fed and Global Central Banks while missing the underlying strength of the US economy. Consumers are still spending, and the US Fed has yet to make any substantial adjustments to rates or balance sheets. These recent lows may provide an excellent opportunity for traders to capitalize on a “reversion price move” soon. The only way to navigate and capitalize on these price swings is to stay focused on Technical Analysis and strategic opportunities for trades when they occur. WHAT TRADING STRATEGIES WILL HELP YOU TO NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, setups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture. We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.” Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting. WARNING: More Downside To Come Uncertainty abounds regarding the path of inflation and new FED policy. This has created a landscape of continued strong periods of distribution in the equity markets. If there are any bounces, they should be used to sell ‘risk assets’. This has been one of the worst starts to a calendar year in the history of the stock and bond markets. Chart Source: Zero Hedge Last Thursday, the reported inflation rate increased by 7.7 percent, the highest in forty years. Stocks tumble as red-hot inflation print pressures technology shares. Markets didn’t like this, which immediately moved them down. Bears are in control of the market, which can be observed from Friday’s trading session. The U.S. 10-year yield rose above 2% for the first time since August 2019 amid a broad Treasury-market selloff. It was driven by expectations for quicker FED interest-rate hikes to contain faster than predicted inflation. It takes at least two to three years to have any material impact on the economy. One sector is currently doing well, which is the oil sector. Cycle's analysis is applied to find the best stocks to invest in and the best sectors. The next sector we are monitoring is Gold/Silver. Crude oil prices are staying strong. There are a lot of geopolitical factors in play here. I think there's a risk premium on oil right now because of Russia. What The Heck is CPI? The Consumer Price Index, CPI, is the measure of changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. This is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation in households. Consumer Price Index Summary. Last Thursday, the inflation figures were released, confirming that everything is getting more expensive. It is up 7.5 percent versus last year. Mortgage rates are starting to rise. If you plan to buy a new home, this is the time to do it. These historically low interest rates will not last long. Should I Invest In Gold Today? Owning gold acts as a hedge against inflation as well as a good portfolio diversifier as it is a great store of value. Gold also provides financial cover during geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases. Conclusion: It seems the stock market may be on its last leg here. Big money flow has been coming out of the large-cap stocks while commodities have been rising. Commodities are typically one of the last assets to rally before the stock market top and start a bear market. I see all the signs, but we must wait for the price to confirm before taking action. We have seen this setup before in 2015/2016, also in 2018, and the market recovered and rallied dramatically from those levels.  What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

I've been paying close attention to Bonds as the global markets react to rising inflation and global central bank moves recently. The US Federal Reserve has yet to take any actions to raise rates, but we all know it will come at some point. Longer-term bonds are acting as if these risks are much more subdued than many traders/investors believe – which has me questioning if global central banks have overplayed the stimulus game? Why would traditional safe-haven assets fail to act in a manner that reflects current market risks like they would typically do? Why have precious metals failed to reflect these risks also properly? Is there something brewing in traders' minds that are muting or mitigating these traditional safe-haven assets? Bonds Continue To Slide After COVID Rally This table, reflecting the recent downward trend in Bonds, highlights the weakened safe-haven tendencies. These assets would generally present with rampant inflation and the possibility of multiple Fed rate increases. (Source: SeekingAlpha.com) Increasing uncertainty throughout the globe, and as inflation climbs to the highest levels since the mid-1970s and 1980s, – “where's the beef?” (to reference a 1980s Wendy's commercial phrase). This TLT Weekly chart shows how risks climbed when COVID hit in February 2020. Yet, take a look at how price has consolidated below $156 and has continued to trend lower over the past six months. After a brief move higher, to levels near the $147 to $155 level, TLT has moved decidedly lower over the past 6+ months. This downward price trend illustrates the diminishing fear levels as traders piled into the post-COVID rally phase. This move suggests traders believe inflation may be temporary or that the US Federal Reserve has room to raise rates without disrupting the global economy. I think the current premise and price trend in TLT vastly underestimates the amount of disruption a series of Fed rate hikes would cause the international markets. The US Federal Reserve will likely consider all options before taking an aggressive move to raise rates. Additionally, the US Fed may decide to allow foreign central banks to move more aggressively to raise rates while it decides to take a more measured approach to inflation. The key to future rate increases is how supply chains open up and how consumers continue to engage in economic activities. Any sudden shift by consumers, or further disruptions in supply for manufacturing and consumer staples/discretionary items, could prompt the Fed into taking aggressive actions. From where the Fed Funds Rates currently are, a move above 0.50% would reflect a +500% rate increase. This may prompt some type of “pop” in certain asset bubbles. (Source: St. Louis Fed) Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and Bond levels throughout 2022 into 2023 as any sudden shift away from current trends could spell trouble. Right now, Bonds are pricing in minimal risks – which may be a mistake. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now, and bonds can’t keep up with inflation and are more or less yield-less. The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions. What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

  Gold and the USDX reacted vigorously to the worrisome news concerning Eastern Europe. However, only the latter can be calm about its medium-term future. As geopolitical tensions uplift gold, silver, and mining stocks, they’re in rally mode each time a doom-and-gloom headline surfaces. However, while the ‘will they or won’t they’ saga commands investors’ attention, the USD Index continues to behave rationally. For example, while volatility has increased recently, the dollar basket has held firm. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 17: The USD Index is at its medium-term support line. All previous moves to / slightly below it were then followed by rallies, sometimes really big rallies, so we’re likely to see something like that once again. Such a rally would be the prefect trigger for the triangle-vertex-based reversal in gold and the following slide. Please see below: Furthermore, the USD Index’s recent pullback was far from a surprise. For example, I highlighted on numerous occasions that the greenback is nearing its weekly rising resistance line, and the price action has unfolded as I expected. Moreover, while overbought conditions resulted in a short-term breather, history shows that the USD Index eventually catches its second wind. To explain, I previously wrote: I marked additional situations on the chart below with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. As a result, with the USD Index showcasing a reliable history of profound comebacks, higher highs should materialize over the medium term. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or those of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie, and with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. While very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98-101 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon). Mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone. The EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the financial markets remain on Russia-Ukraine watch. While gold, silver, mining stocks, and the USD Index whipsaw on the news, the technical and fundamental backdrops support higher prices for the latter, not the former. Thus, while geopolitical tensions are always short-term bullish for the precious metals, the rush is often short-lived. As a result, the trios’ downtrends that began in late 2020 will likely resurface once the headline-driven market returns to normal. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Not only won’t inflation end soon, it’s likely to remain high. Whether gold will be able to take advantage of it will depend, among others, on the Fed. Do you sometimes ask yourself when this will all end? I don’t mean the universe, nor our lives, nor even this year (c’mon, guys, it has just started!). I mean, of course, inflation. If only you weren’t in a coma last year, you would have probably noticed that prices had been surging recently. For instance, America finished the year with a shocking CPI annual rate of 7.1%, the highest since June 1982, as the chart below shows. Now, the key question is how much higher inflation could rise, or how persistent it could be. The consensus is that we will see a peak this year and subsequent cooling down, but to still elevated levels. This is the view I also hold. However, would I bet my collection of precious metals on it? I don’t know, as inflation could surprise us again, just as it did to most of the economists (but not me) last year. The risk is clearly to the upside. As always in economics, it’s a matter of supply and demand. There is even a joke that all you need to turn a parrot into an economist is to teach it to say ‘supply’ and ‘demand’. Funny, huh? When it comes to the demand side, both the money supply growth and the evolution of personal saving rate implies some cooling down of inflation rate. Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, the broad money supply peaked in February 2021. Assuming a one-year lag between the money supply and price level, inflation rate should reach its peak somewhere in the first quarter of this year. There is one important caveat here: the pace of money supply growth has not returned to the pre-pandemic level, but it stabilized at about 13%, double the rate seen at the end of 2019. Inflation was then more or less at the Fed’s target of 2%, so without constraining money supply growth, the US central bank couldn’t beat inflation. As the chart above also shows, the personal saving rate has returned to the pre-pandemic level of 7-8%. It means that the bulk of pent-up demand has already materialized, which should also help to ease inflation in the future. However, not all of the ‘forced savings’ have already entered the market. Thus, personal consumption expenditures are likely to be elevated for some time, contributing to boosted inflation. Regarding supply factors, although some bottlenecks have eased, the disruptions have not been fully resolved. The spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and regional lockdowns in China could prolong the imbalances between booming demand and constrained supply. Other contributors to high inflation are rising producer prices, increasing house prices and rents, strong inflation expectations (see the chart below), and labor shortages combined with fast wage growth. The bottom line is that, all things considered – in particular high level of demand, continued supply issues, and de-anchored inflation expectations – I forecast another year of elevated inflation, but probably not as high as in 2021. After reaching a peak in a few months, the inflation rate could ease to, let’s say, around 4% in December, if we are lucky. Importantly, the moderate bond yields also suggest that inflation will ease somewhat later in 2022. What does it mean for the gold market? Well, I don’t have good news for the gold bulls. Gold loves high and accelerating inflation the most. Indeed, as the chart below shows, gold peaks coincided historically with inflation heights. The most famous example is the inflation peak in early 1980, when gold ended its impressive rally and entered into a long bearish trend. The 2011 top also happened around the local inflationary peak. The only exception was the 2005 peak in inflation, when gold didn’t care and continued its bullish trend. However, this was partially possible thanks to the decline in the US dollar, which seems unlikely to repeat in the current macroeconomic environment, in which the Fed is clearly more hawkish than the ECB or other major central banks. The relatively strong greenback won’t help gold shine. Surely, disinflation may turn out to be transitory and inflation may increase again several months later. Lower inflation implies a less aggressive Fed, which should be supportive of gold prices. However, investors should remember that the US central bank will normalize its monetary policy no matter the inflation rate. Since the Great Recession, inflation has been moderate, but the Fed has tightened its stance eventually, nevertheless. Hence, gold may experience a harsh moment when inflation peaks. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

Even at the last important low (US$$1,750) on December 15th, 2021, the sentiment was still awful as the sector had become the most hated asset class. Now fast-forward, gold has been successfully breaking out of its multi month triangle and keeps sprinting higher. The bulls currently are bending the daily and weekly Bollinger Bands to the upside, and seasonality is still supportive.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Looking at the weekly chart, it appears that gold not only broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern, but also out of a large inverse head and shoulder pattern. It’s not a textbook head and shoulder, but worthwhile noting. A measured move projection could theoretically take gold towards US$2,125! However, the monthly Bollinger Band, sitting at around US$ 1,975, might be a much more realistic target for the ongoing move. As you might remember, the zone between US$1,950 to US$1,975 is very strong resistance. We would not rule out a short-lived overshoot towards US$,2000, though.Overall, the weekly chart is not yet overbought and looks bullish. Hence, the rally has very good chances to continue for a few more weeks.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.As expected, the breakout above US$1,840 to US$1,850 has unleashed enough energy to quickly push gold prices towards the round psychological number of US$1,900. Fortunately, the daily stochastic has transformed its overboughtness into the rare “embedded status”, where both signal lines are sitting above 80 for more than three days in a row. Hence, the uptrend is locked-in and shorting this market would be fighting the uptrend.Of course, given the uncertain and complex geopolitical situation, events can and likely will strongly influence gold over the coming days and weeks. Speaking from a technical point of you, any pullback towards the breakout zone around US$1,845 would be a buying opportunity. However, prices below US$1,875 would already be a surprise in the short-term. On the contrary, it’s much more likely that gold will continue its run to at least US$1,930 over the coming days.In summary, the daily chart is bullish. Especially the bullish embedded stochastic oscillator likely will not allow any larger pullback, but rather a consolidation around US$1,900. Watch those two signal lines. Only if one of them would be dropping below 80on a daily close, the bull run might be over!GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.GDX, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold & gold related mining stocks often stabilize your portfolio during uncertain times and do act as a hedge. While the stock market continued its dive due to the crisis in Ukraine and the potential interest rate turnaround in the US, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up more than 21.5% since its low in mid of December. Over the last two weeks, the leading gold mining stocks recorded some of their best days in the last 12 months. Last week, Barrick Gold ($GOLD) jumped up more than 7% due to good earnings, a dividend increase, and a new share repurchase program. Some smaller gold stocks like Sabina Gold & Silver ($SGSVF) went up even more (+15% Friday, 11th).Now that gold is on the rise, it’s time for the beaten down and undervalued mining stocks to catch up. Usually, it starts with the big senior produces like Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM) and Newmont Corporation ($NEM), then the juniors like for example Victoria Gold Corp. ($VITFF) join and finally, the explorer and developers literally explode higher.However, the GDX has nearly reached its downtrend line as well as the 38.2% retracement of the whole corrective wave since August 2020. Hence, the big miners are running into string resistance and might need to consolidate soon.At the same time, note, that silver has been lagging. Silver always lags most of the time, but in the final stage of sector wide rally it suddenly passes all the other metals and shots up nearly vertically. That also typically is the sign that the rally in the sector is coming to an end. Obviously, we have not yet seen any strong silver days. Therefore, silver actually confirms that the sector has more room and time to run higher!Conclusion: Bullish momentum remains strongOverall, gold continues to look promising here as the bullish momentum remains strong. Hence, Gold is probably on the way towards US$1,950 and US$1,975, with a slight chance for an overshot to US$2,000. But of course, given the rather overbought daily chart, the risk/reward is not that good anymore. Silver and many of the smaller mining stocks, however, might still offer a chance to play the ongoing rally over the next few weeks. Once gold tops out in spring, expect a big pullback. Maybe even back towards the higher trending 200-day moving average (currently at US$1,808) at some point in midsummer. But that is all somewhere in the future. For now, the bullish momentum remains strong.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 20th, 2022|Tags: $GDXJ, Barrick Gold, GDX, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, Newmont Corporation, precious metals, Reyna Gold, Sabina Gold & Silver, Silver, silver bull, US-Dollar, Victoria Gold|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

GBPUSD tests resistance The sterling edged higher after January’s retail sales beat expectations. The recent pause has been an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate. A break above 1.3640 would signal solid buying after previous failed attempts. The daily resistance at 1.3750 would be the next hurdle. Its breach could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. 1.3560 is the immediate support. And 1.3490 at the lower end of the horizontal consolidation is the second line of defense in case the pair needs to attract more support. USDCAD awaits breakout The Canadian dollar tanked after disappointing retail sales in December. The US counterpart is still struggling below the supply zone around 1.2800. A close above this daily resistance could propel the pair to last December’s high at 1.2950, a prerequisite for a bullish continuation in the medium-term. The current sideways action is a sign of indecision. 1.2640 is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. A bearish breakout would bring the greenback to a previous low at 1.2560. EURJPY struggles for support The Japanese yen rallies amid growing risk aversion across the board. The euro continues to shed gains from the surge earlier this month. A fall below 131.90 triggered profit-taking, and the latest rally came out to be a dead cat bounce after it was capped by this support-turned-resistance. A break below 130.40 (which sits over the 30-day moving average) shows fragility in market sentiment and would cause another round of sell-off. 129.20 at the base of the bullish impetus would be the next support.

The geopolitical momentum of the escalation/truce situation around Ukraine strikingly has its weekly cycles. Harsh rhetoric seems to peak at the end of the week, followed by the weekend’s relief when the sides look for ways to negotiate, giving a breath of air to global markets early in the week. This week, the same pattern applies with demand for EM currencies and European indices returning to their starting positions before Friday’s collapse. The announced talks between the Russian and US foreign ministers and the chances of a summit between Biden and Putin bring back hopes of a peaceful resolution. However, it is worth realising that the situation remains fragile, and so far, with each new cycle of this momentum, the present situation has become more dramatic. And this is visible in the dynamics of the European indices, where the DAX formed a double top in January and in February began to churn in line with the geopolitical background, maintaining a downward bias and approaching a critical support level that has been in place since last May. The pressure on the DAX to consolidate under the 15,000 mark is occurring on two fronts at once. Firstly, geopolitical tensions are reducing the traction in risky assets of the European region. In addition, fears of energy supply disruptions in the EU due to Russia form the background, with high oil and gas prices holding back the economic recovery. Secondly, the monetary policy outlook continues to be reassessed. ECB officials are talking more and more confidently about a rate hike this year and leaving the door open for such a move as early as September. If the bears manage to push the DAX below the nine-month support, we might see an acceleration of the corrective pullback that could take the index down to 14000 within the next couple of weeks. If the politicians’ rhetoric doesn’t seem to be easing, the next target for a retracement might be the 13000-area, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the extremes of March 2020 and November 2021.

S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos did break down over the weekend, but the anticipated risk-on rebound fizzled out a bit too fast – as said on Friday, the bears have the upper hand now. Summary S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Pinterest shares rise over 12% in the premarket on Friday. PINS stock surges down to an earnings beat on the top and bottom lines. Pinterest shares remain in a long-term downtrend. Pinterest (PINS) reported strong earnings after the close Thursday night that saw the stock move up over 18% in afterhours trading. So far, most of those gains are holding early on Friday with PINS at $27.70. This represents a gain of 13% from Thursday's close. Pinterest Stock News Earnings per share came in at $0.49 versus consensus estimates for $0.45. Revenue hit $846.7 million versus consensus estimates of $827.2 million. The shares immediately jumped on the news. (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) "We took important steps in 2021 with the launch of our foundational technology to deliver a video-first publishing platform. And, I'm proud to say that for the first time, we surpassed $2 billion in revenue for the year — growing 52% over the previous year — and reached our first full-year of GAAP profitability," said Ben Silbermann, CEO and co-founder of Pinterest. PINS was set up for outperformance and the risk-reward was clearly to the upside. PINS stock had closed the regular session on Thursday down over 10% as the read-across from Facebook saw investors dump the stock. (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) Just like Amazon, a surprise to the upside offered a better risk-reward profile, and so it proved with investors rushing to cover positions. Pinterest Stock Forecast Pinterest remains mired in a long-term downtrend. Paypal (PYPL) had been rumoured to be in discussion to acquire PINS back in October of last year. PINS shares had spiked to $65 on the rumour, but supposedly Paypal shareholders resisted and nothing ever happened. This led PINS shares on a steady downweard path ever since. The shares are down nearly 70% in the last year and 26% already this year. This move does not really do much to turn that trend around in our view. The big damage was done in the break of $32.34. That remains the bullish pivot. The first support is at $24.08. Pinterest (PINS) chart, (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart) 20 hourly

USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc surges as the US-Russia stalemate boosts demand for safe haven assets. Consecutive drops below 0.9220 and then 0.9180 suggest that sellers have taken control. The greenback is heading towards January’s double bottom around 0.9110. A break below this key floor would trigger a deeper correction towards the psychological level of 0.9000. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound. The support-turned-resistance at 0.9220 is the level to break to give the bulls any hope of recovery. XAGUSD bounces higher Bullion rallies over ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Silver gained momentum after a break above the supply zone at 23.90. A brief fallback found support over 23.10 which indicates solid buying interest. The price is grinding up along a rising trendline and sentiment remains upbeat as long as it stays above the congestion area near the trendline and 23.60. January’s peak at 24.70 is the target when volatility picks up again. A bullish breakout could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. UK 100 struggles for support The FTSE 100 tumbles as risk appetite slips across the board. The bulls’ latest effort to push beyond 7630 turned out to be futile. A break below 7500 suggests a lack of commitment and weighs on short-term sentiment. Intraday traders have switched sides and look to fade the next bounce towards the former support. A dip below 7430 has opened the door to 7330 as the next target. Further down, the daily support at 7240 would be a major level to keep the uptrend intact in the medium term.

Bitcoin, best in play   The Covid environment brought an additional variant risk factor to the table, especially when it comes to investor psychology. Our last weekly chart book publication made a case for positioning one’s risk hedge plays this year when equity markets most likely trade in a volatile sideways range. We also spoke of a proper wealth preservation strategy, holding both bitcoin and gold within a hedged risk reduction approach for your monies. With our primary focus on risk, the next question is allocation size between bitcoin and gold. As mentioned in the intro, it feels intuitively natural to have significant exposure to the gold side from a cycle history. Yet, insurance seems essential at this time, and as such, we tend to be a bit more aggressive towards bitcoin allocations. Bitcoin, daily chart, not just yet: Bitcoin, daily chart as of February 22nd, 2022. The daily chart reflects the common notion of bitcoin trading alongside PMI numbers and the market as a whole. With the recent break of the modest bounce from the US$33,500 level up leg (yellow up-channel), no immediate low-risk entries for longer-term exposure seems in play.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, great setup, bitcoin, best in play: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Nevertheless, we find now zooming out to the weekly time frame a quite interesting entry zone (white box) between the levels US$30,000 to US$34,000. We identified by stacking multiple edges that an entry near US$31,800 would provide the most low-risk entry profile. However, it will depend on how prices will arrive at these levels. As such, we encourage you to check back in our free Telegram channel.  There we post-entries, and exits for educational purposes in real-time. Bitcoin, monthly chart, amazing potential: Bitcoin, monthly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Where matters become more transparent, and our headlines supported, is at a view of the monthly chart. The first leg up was nothing short of a 1,600% advancement. Now we have been trading for a year in a bullish up sloping sideways channel. With a possible entry at the lows of this channel, a long-term investment provides for a stellar risk/reward-ratio. The second legs are typically longer than the first legs! But that is not all; bitcoin has a higher probability of four-leg moves versus three-leg moves. Consequently, this trade could turn out to be highly profitable after some time. One aspect of risk is the relationship between the size of a potential down move of price and the size of a likely up move. We find bitcoins’ upward potential much more significant than gold for its fundamental characteristics and stellar outperforming history percentagewise. Bitcoin, best in play: Summing it up, bitcoin might not be at its lowest retracement levels yet. Still, its powerful potential in risk/reward-ratio and as an overall risk hedge makes it best in play. We share a low-risk cost averaging in strategy in our free Telegram channel. We find that allocation of funds should be more dominant towards bitcoin. In addition, holding some cash as much as money is deflating can still be a good strategy. Cash is king to purchase desired goods and vehicles, especially when those are even more depressed.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin correction, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, NASDAQ, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments

Losing for the sixth day in a row, bitcoin is approaching a retest of the intermediate round level of 35,000, near which buyers became more active at the end of last month. A further decline could open a direct road to the 30,000 area, where the coin was bought back twice in 2021. Given the changed macroeconomic conditions and the pressure on risky assets, will the crypto remain as interesting at these same levels? Cryptocurrencies once again fell under geopolitical pressure, although a relatively small decline was caused by the absence of major US players due to a holiday in the US. And again, risky assets, from stocks to digital currencies, collapsed with the aggravation of the situation around Ukraine, where investors fear conflict in Eastern Europe. Against this background, one of the world's largest hedge funds, Man Group, called bitcoin a risky asset, as indicated by the growing correlation of BTC with the Nasdaq stock index. Black Swan author Nassim Taleb criticized bitcoin as a hedge, calling it "the perfect game for losers" in an environment of low interest rates. Huobi co-founder Du Jun expects bitcoin to rise to new highs no earlier than 2025, basing his assumptions on halving-related price cycles. Bitcoin was down 3.1% on Monday, ending the day near $37,100, continuing to drop moderately on Tuesday morning to $36,700. Ethereum lost 3%, falling back to $2,500, while other top-ten altcoins also mostly sank: from 4.9 % (Binance Coin) to 7.1% (Solana). The exception was Terra, which posted a 3.8% increase. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell by 7.3% over the day, to $1.66 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index rose from 41.7% to 42.2% due to a sharper decline in altcoins. The fear and greed index lost 5 points to 20, deepening into a state of "extreme fear."

S&P 500 is waking up to fresh European news, and holds up well. There is no panic upswing in gold and silver, but crude oil and natural gas are up the most. As the U.S. markets are to open following yesterday‘s Washington‘s Birthday holiday, let‘s bring up the key details of yesterday‘s analysis: (…) S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. What a long quote – let‘s update it with the premarket action. S&P 500 is still waiting with its potential upsing, dollar has gone nowhere really, and precious metals look like having a bright day today. The crude oil upswing shows that markets don‘t like the geopolitical news, and are likely to behave in a risk-off way of late (Treasuries, gold and oil up benefiting most). The internals of today‘s stock market action would be telling – I recently got an interesting question touching also upon rates and real estate: Q: I read your most recent newsletter with great interest: 1. You think the Fed would start to ease this fall? In your opinion, how long would that last?  Midterm would be done soon there after so would it be a quick few months then revert back to higher rates? 2. I’m asking question #1 as it would impact real estate. 3. You anticipate a “temporary” rise in the S&P this week? Are you thinking just a few days? I noticed 10 yr is going down. A: Thank you for asking. I'll take 1 & 2 in one go - I think they would change course latest autumn. So, now hawkish and raising, then turning to easing before midterms. Let's see first the damage this tightening does, and the degree to which they then turn dovish. As regards real estate, it's slowing down, homebuilders, XLRE... Headwinds would be stiffening, rates are eating into mortgages, but those ZIP codes where immigration into is high, would do best - but the overall, total real estate isn't an appealing proposition. When markets open, there is likely to be a little SPX rally off oversold readings. Sure, they can get more oversold - that's the way it goes during bearish episodes, which is why I'm not long. The trend for now is to the downside, so I would keep predominantly looking and taking opportunities to short. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos stopped breaking down today, and the price action smacks of joining in the modest risk-on upswing, as unbelievable as it sounds. Summary Yesterday‘s summary is valid also today – S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The New Zealand dollar has been adding around 1% since the start of the day following the third key rate hike of 0.25 percentage points to 1.0% and comments from the RBNZ on the need for further policy tightening.Wednesday also saw the announcement of the start of a balance sheet reduction, including via active selling.The central bank points to employment above the maximum sustained level and the overall economic performance above its potential, all with elevated inflation.The RBNZ also says further tightening is needed, pointing to upside risks to inflation.NZDUSD is testing 0.6800, as it did just over a month ago. The Kiwi came under pressure in the previous month due to a general risk bias in global markets. However, the paths of the NZDUSD and international markets diverged in February. The steady demand of the New Zealand currency, which gained nearly 4% from the lows of late January, contrasts with the S&P500, which lost its rising momentum about a fortnight ago and is again near the lows of the year.The main reason for that divergence is monetary policy - current and expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained the momentum of tightening for the third time in the last six months and promises further rises later in the year.New Zealand has also found itself far removed from the worst geopolitical tensions in Europe of recent decades, continuing to benefit from record-breaking commodity prices.In this environment, it would not be surprising to see the NZDUSD rise as far as 0.7000 by the end of next month, in a break from last year's downward trend. Although, it would be too naive to expect an easy up ride for the Aussie, as the US Fed is also signalling a very hawkish stance.

S&P 500 had a wild swings day, and didn‘t rise convincingly – credit markets didn‘t move correspondingly either. The upswing looks postponed unless fresh signs of broad weakness arrive. Yesterday‘s session didn‘t tell much either way – the countdown to the upswing materializing, is on even though tech didn‘t take advantage of higher bond prices. That can still come.VIX though reversed to the downside, and the relatively calmer session we‘re likely going to experience today, would be consistent with a modest attempt for stocks to move higher. I‘m though not looking for a monstrous rally, even though we‘re trading closer to the lower end of the wide S&P 500 range for this year than to its upper border. The 4,280s are so far holding but as the Mar FOMC approaches, we‘re likely to see a fresh turn south in the 500-strong index. For now, the talk of raising rates is on the back burner – Europe is in the spotlight.Note that the flight to safety on rising tensions (Treasuries, gold and oil up) didn‘t benefit the dollar. Coupled with the yields reprieve, that makes for further precious metals gains – the bull run won‘t be toppled if soothing news arrives. Likewise crude oil isn‘t going to tank below $90, and remain there. Commodities can be counted on to keep running – led by energy and agrifoods, with base metals (offering a helping hand to silver) in tow. As I wrote weeks ago, this is where the real gains are to be found.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume moved a little up, meaning the buying interest is still there – convincing signs of a trend change are though yet not apparent. Should prices prove to have trouble breaking lower over the next 1-2 days, this could still turn out a good place for a little long positon.Credit MarketsHYG continues basing, and keeps trading in a risk-off fashion, which is why I can‘t be wildly bullish stocks for now. Stock market gains are likely to remain subdued, noticeably subdued – as a bare minimum for today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, but a little reprieve is developing – nothing though that would break the bull. The run is only starting, and would continue through the rate raising cycle.Crude OilCrude oil is fairly well bid, and doesn‘t appear to be really dipping any time soon. Oil stocks are preparing for an upswing, and would remain one of the best performing S&P 500 sectors. Tripple digit oil is a question of time.CopperCopper‘s moment in the spotlight is approaching as commodities keeps pushing higher, and base metals are breaking up. All of these factors are inflationary.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to move up today, and further gains are likely. I‘m though looking for the 50-day moving average in Bitcoin (corresponding roughly to the mid Feb lows in Ethereum) to prove an obstacle.SummaryS&P 500 didn‘t break to new lows overnight, and appears to be picking up somewhat today. The anticipated rebound might materialize later today, and would require bond participation to be credible. I‘m not looking for sharp gains within this upswing though – the correction looks very much to have further to run. It‘s commodities and precious metals where the largest gains are to be made, with the European tensions taking the focus off inflation (momentarily). The pressure on the Fed to act decisively, is though still on as various credit spreads tell – and the same goes for the compressed yield curve speaking volumes about the (precarious) state of the real economy.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

DWAC stock spiked 28% in Tuesday's premarket after TRUTH Social began accepting users.Tuesday's regular session, however, saw DWAC jump only half as high.Digital World Acquisition Corp's share count is expected to more than quadruple one month after merger closes.Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) stock could not compete in Tuesday's regular session with its performance in the premarket. DWAC shares exploded 28% to $108 before the markets opened on Tuesday. Once the public session got under way, however, DWAC could not even break $100. The Special Purpose Acquisition Vehicle (SPAC) slated to take former President Donald Trump's Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) public in the next month still closed up 10.2% to $92.90 on a day when most equities sold off due to tensions on the Ukraine-Russia front.Donald Trump's social media startup, TRUTH Social, began allowing app downloads on Apple devices on Sunday, February 20, which caused the price to spike on Tuesday when markets opened after the Presidents' Day holiday.Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News: 172K waitlistedOn Tuesday, Newsweek reported that more than 172,000 accounts had been waitlisted, and other sources said many of those seeking to gain access had received error messages. Research firm Apptopia estimated there were 170,000 downloads on Monday in the US. The app was the top free download in Apple's App Store on Monday.This was good news for the most part since trouble accessing a new app due to popularity is normally a sign that it is a hit. Traders, however, began taking profits almost immediately when DWAC shares popped to $99 at the open.A steady drip of new download figures should buoy the stock in the coming days as the company has said it may take 10 days to onboard all the early adopters. The only major worry going forward is the coming share count increase. Thirty days after the merger is completed, separate shares owned by insiders, underwriters, and private investors who invested in the SPAC's separate PIPE deal (Private Investment in Public Equity) will be allowed to trade. This means that the current 37 million-odd shares will grow overnight to more than 170 million. Though this is not a standard dilution event, the increase may put downward pressure on the share price.Additionally, another 40 million "earnout" shares might be earned by company insiders and owners if the share price remains above $15, $20 or $30 a share on average in the month after the merger. Then there are the 15 million warrants that could get exercised in September 2022. By the end of the year, there could be 225 million total shares. Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock Forecast: Two top trend linesAfter opening on Tuesday at $99, the stock immediately sold down to $85.67 before rebounding throughout the rest of the day. Twice during Tuesday's session, DWAC faced resistance near $96.DWAC is trading within an ascending price channel, which gives the market confidence to hold out for higher prices. Traders should note that there are two separate possible top trend lines available to them. The first one (yellow) is the more recent trend that began on January 24. It is much steeper and takes a trajectory aimed at the 161.8% Fibonacci level at $134.90. The other (blue) began back on December 8 and takes a more conservative and gradual aim at the $120 level, which was significant during the first rally in price action back during late October.The swing highs from January 19, February 7 and 22 are all slightly higher than one another, demonstrating that and uptrend is definitely motion no matter which top trend line is preferred. Support sits at $78, $60 and $38. DWAC 1-day chart

  Stocks were volatile yesterday and the broad stock market fell by another 1%. Was it a final decline or just another leg within a downtrend? The S&P 500 index lost 1.01% on Tuesday, Feb. 22, as it extended its last week’s Thursday’s-Friday’s sell-off. The daily low was at 4,267.11, and the market closed slightly above the 4,300 mark. We’ve seen a lot of volatility following the U.S. President Biden’s speech on Russia-Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.7% higher. We may see more volatility, however it looks like a short-term bottoming pattern. The nearest important resistance level is at 4,350-4,400, marked by the recent local low and some previous support levels. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,250-4,300, among others. The S&P 500 index trades within its late January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It extended the downtrend on Monday, but it managed to stay slightly above its late January local lows. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation. It may be a bottoming pattern before an upward correction. Yesterday, we decided to open a speculative long position before the opening of the cash market. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index went below the 4,300 level yesterday, as investors reacted to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis news. The market may be trading within a short-term consolidation and we may see an attempt at reversing the downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely bounce or fluctuate following its late last week’s sell-off We are maintaining our yesterday’s long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  To the disappointment of gold bulls, the yellow metal’s upward trend will not last long. Fundamentals have already taken their toll on gold miners.  While gold remains uplifted due to the Russia-Ukraine drama, the GDXJ ETF declined for the second-straight day on Feb. 22. Moreover, I warned on numerous occasions that the junior miners are more correlated with the general stock market than their precious metals peers. As a result, when the S&P 500 slides, the GDXJ ETF often follows suit. To that point, with shades of 2018 unfolding beneath the surface, the Russia-Ukraine headlines have covered up the implications of the current correction. However, the similarities should gain more traction in the coming weeks. For context, I wrote on Feb. 22: When the Fed’s rate hike cycle roiled the NASDAQ 100 in 2017-2018, the GDXJ ETF suffered too. Thus, while the Russia-Ukraine drama has provided a distraction, the fundamentals that impacted both asset classes back then are present now. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the GDXJ ETF in 2018, while the black line above tracks the NASDAQ 100. If you analyze the performance, you can see that the Fed’s rate hike cycle initially rattled the former and the latter rolled over soon after. However, the negativity persisted until Fed Chairman Jerome Powell performed a dovish pivot and both assets rallied. As a result, with the Fed Chair unlikely to perform a dovish pivot this time around, the junior miners have some catching up to do. Furthermore, while the S&P 500 also reacts to the geopolitical risks, the Fed’s looming rate hike cycle is a much bigger story. With the U.S. equity benchmark also following its price path from 2018, a drawdown to new 2022 lows should help sink the GDXJ ETF. Please see below: Source: Morgan Stanley To explain, the yellow line above tracks the S&P 500 from March 2018 until February 2019, while the blue line above tracks the index's current movement. If you analyze the performance, it's a near-splitting image. Moreover, while Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist Michael Wilson thinks a relief rally to ~4,600 is plausible, he told clients that "this correction looks incomplete." "Rarely have we witnessed such weak breadth and havoc under the surface when the S&P 500 is down less than 10%. In our experience, when such a divergence like this happens, it typically ends with the primary index catching down to the average stock," he added. As a result, while a short-term bounce off of oversold conditions may materialize, the S&P 500's downtrend should resume with accelerated fervor. In the process, the GDXJ ETF should suffer materially as the medium-term drama unfolds.  To that point, the Fed released the minutes from its discount rate meetings on Jan. 18 and Jan. 26. While the committee left interest rates unchanged, the report revealed: “Given ongoing inflation pressures and strong labor market conditions, a number of directors noted that it might soon become appropriate to begin a process of removing policy accommodation. The directors of three Reserve Banks favored increasing the primary credit rate to 0.50 percent, in response to elevated inflation or to help manage economic and financial stability risks over the longer term.” For context, the hawkish pleas came from the Cleveland, St. Louis, and Kansas City Feds. Moreover, the last time Fed officials couldn’t reach a unanimous decision was October 2019. As a result, the lack of agreement highlights the monetary policy uncertainty that should help upend financial assets in the coming months. As evidence, the report also revealed: Source: U.S. Fed Thus, while I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, the Russia-Ukraine drama has been a short-term distraction. However, with Fed officials highlighting that growth and inflation meet their thresholds for tightening monetary policy, higher real interest rates and a stronger USD Index will have much more influence over the medium term. To that point, IHS Markit released its U.S. Composite PMI on Feb. 22. With the headline index increasing from 51.1 in January to 56.0 in February, an excerpt from the report read: “February data highlighted a sharp and accelerated increase in new business among private sector companies that was the fastest in seven months. Firms mentioned that sales were boosted by the retreat of the pandemic, improved underlying demand, expanded client bases, aggressive marketing campaigns and new partnerships. Customers reportedly made additional purchases to avoid future price hikes. Quicker increases in sales (trades) were evident among both manufacturers and service providers.” More importantly, though: Source: IHS Markit In addition, since the Fed’s dual mandate includes inflation and employment, the report revealed: Source: IHS Markit Likewise, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, added: “With demand rebounding and firms seeing a relatively modest impact on order books from the Omicron wave, future output expectations improved to the highest for 15 months, and jobs growth accelerated to the highest since last May, adding to the upbeat picture.” If that wasn't enough, the Richmond Fed released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Feb. 22. While the headline index wasn't so optimistic, the report revealed that "the third component in the composite index, employment, increased to 20 from 4 in January" and that "firms continued to report increasing wages." For context, the dashed light blue line below tracks the month-over-month (MoM) change, while the dark blue line below tracks the three-month moving average. If you analyze the former's material increase, it's another data point supporting the Fed's hawkish crusade. Source: Richmond Fed Finally, the Richmond Fed also released its Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity on Feb. 22. For context, the U.S. service sector suffers the brunt of COVID-19 waves. However, the recent decline in cases has increased consumers’ appetite for in-person activities. The report revealed: “Fifth District service sector activity showed improvement in February, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The revenues index increased from 4 in January to 11 in February. The demand index remained in expansionary territory at 23. Firms also reported increases in spending, as the index for capital expenditures, services expenditures, and equipment and software spending all increased.” Furthermore, with the employment index increasing from 12 to 14, the wages index increasing from 41 to 46, and the average workweek index increasing from 9 to 10, the labor market strengthened in February. Likewise, the index that tracks businesses’ ability to find skilled workers increased from -21 to -19. As a result, inflation, employment and economic growth create the perfect cocktail for the Fed to materially tighten monetary policy in the coming months.  Source: Richmond Fed The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine saga may dominate the headlines for some time, the bearish fundamentals that hurt gold and silver in 2021 remain intact: the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and demand is still fueling inflation. Moreover, with information technology and communication services’ stocks – which account for roughly 39% of the S&P 500 – highly allergic to higher interest rates, the volatility should continue to weigh on the GDXJ ETF. As such, while gold may have extended its shelf life, mining stocks may not be so lucky. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Feb. 22, as the news cycle continues to swing financial assets in either direction. However, while headlines may have a short-term impact, technicals and fundamentals often reign supreme over the medium term. As a result, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  The Natural Gas flight just landed after hitting its second and last target yesterday. The perfect trade does not exist, but this one has been developing pretty well following our flying map. In today’s edition, I will provide a trade review for Natural Gas futures (NGH22) following my last projections published on Friday Feb-11, for which the stop was also updated last Wednesday and trailed again last Thursday. Trade Plan Just to remember, our initial plan was relying on a gas market having to cope with stronger demand to fuel and increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Hence, the projected rebounding floor (or support level) provided, which was ideal for the Henry Hub given the unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), providing a catapulting upward momentum. Then, it took a few days for the first suggested objective at $4.442 to be passed, and a few extra days for the second target located at the $4.818 level to be hit (as it was yesterday). Meanwhile, as I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, our subscribers were kindly and promptly invited to place their initial stop just below the $3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), before receiving a couple of trading alerts suggesting they manually trail it up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven), then one more time up towards 4.180 (which corresponds to the 50% distance between initial entry and target 1), and finally to be lifted up to 4.368 optimally. Consequently, after a reconnaissance mission got close enough to target number 2, the Nat-Gas flight started running out of kerosene after passing through the first target like a fighter jet would break the sound barrier. Therefore, after getting refueled at a lower altitude (just above our highest elevation trailing stop) by a refuelling aircraft, the jet was finally ready to point and lock its last target before striking it. Here is a picture-by-picture record of that trade. First step: flight preparation on carrier ship Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Second step: prices catapulted and stop lifted at breakeven once the mid-point target was reached Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Third step: target one hit and stop dragged up Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to target one (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fourth step: mission reconnaissance to target two and refueling aircraft en route to refill the jet tank (stop trailing again) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to lock final target (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fifth step: final strike to target two Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom one more time into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned steps of our flying map: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) As you may observe, target one is now serving as a new landing space (support) for a new ranging market cycle. That’s all, folks, for today. I hope that you enjoyed the flight with our company! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USOIL continues to climb WTI crude surged after Russia launched a military operation in eastern Ukraine. The latest market jitters met support over 90.70 which sits next to the 20-day moving average. Sentiment would stay optimistic as long as price action is above this demand zone. A previous horizontal consolidation allowed the bulls to catch their breath and accumulate for the current push. A close above 95.50 would send the price towards the landmark 100.00. An overbought RSI may cause a brief pause if momentum traders take profit. NZDUSD hits resistance The New Zealand dollar jumped after the RBNZ raised rates for the third time in a row. The pair met selling pressure in the supply zone (0.6810) from the sell-off in late January. An overextended RSI led short-term bulls to take profit in that congestion area. However, the rebound trajectory may attract buying interest with the current pullback seen as an opportunity. 0.6680 is the next support after a drop below 0.6730. A deeper correction may test 0.6600, which is important support from the daily chart. AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar retreats amid cautious market sentiment. A break above the recent peak at 0.7245 suggests a strong bullish commitment. The pair is heading towards January’s high at 0.7310. A bullish breakout could turn things around in the medium term. After the RSI ventured into the overbought area, the bullish impetus stalled as intraday buyers took profit. 0.7165 is the next support as the RSI swings into the oversold area. Further down, 0.7100 is a key floor to keep the rebound intact.

The worst case scenario - Russian invasion of Ukraine - is materializing. We try to analyze its consequences for the economy and financial markets Oil price increases past $100 per barrel Russia is a key player on the energy commodities market, especially important for Europe. Situation on the oil market proves it - oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. Russia is exporting around 5 million barrels of oil each day, around 5% of global demand. Around a half of that is exported to the European Union. If the West decides to cut Russia off the SWIFT settlements system, Russian exports to the European Union could be halted. In such a scenario oil prices could jump $20-30 per barrel. In our opinion, the war risk premium included in current oil barrel prices amounts to $15-20. Europe is the main recipient of Russian oil. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Gold and palladium rally Conflict is the main driver of moves on the gold market. It is not the first time when gold proves to be a good store of value at times of geopolitical conflicts. Ounce of gold trades over 3% higher today, near $1,970, and just slightly over $100 below its all-time highs. Russia is an important producer of palladium, an important metal for the automotive sector. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Russia is a significant producer of palladium, which is a key metal in production of catalytic converters for the automotive sector. Palladium prices rallied almost 8% today. Fear means sell-off on the market Global stock markets are taking a hit not seen since 2020. However, panic is not as big as it was in early-2020. Uncertainty is the most important driver for global stock markets now as investors do not know what will come next. Correction on Nasdaq-100 futures deepened past 20% today. A big part of this drop, however, was caused by expectations of Fed tightening. DAX futures dropped around 15% since mid-January and trade near pre-pandemic highs. DE30 trades to halt decline at pre-pandemic high. Source: xStation5 Business in Ukraine is in danger It should not come as a surprise that Russian companies and companies with big exposure to Russia are the ones taking the biggest hit. Russian RTS dropped over 60% off the October 2021 high and briefly traded below 2020 lows! Polymetal International is a company worth mentioning - stock is plunging over 30% on London Stock Exchange as market fears sanctions will hit Anglo-Russian companies. Renault is also taking a hit as Russia is the second biggest market for the company. Banks with large exposure to Russia - UniCredit and Societe Generale - are also dropping hard. Even higher inflation From an economic point of view the situation is clear - military conflict will generate a new inflationary impulse. Prices of almost all commodities are trading higher, especially energy commodities. However, in case of commodity markets, a lot will depend on how conflict impacts logistics. Keep in mind that global logistics have not recovered from Covid-19 hit yet and now another negative factor is surfacing. According to the New York Fed index, global supply chains are the most tight on record. Central bankers' headache Covid-19 panic has been very short-lived, thanks to an enormous support offered by central banks. However, such an action is unlikely now. As conflict is inflationary and has a bigger impact on supply and logistics rather than demand, inflation becomes an even bigger problem for major central banks. On the other hand, quick tightening monetary policy would only magnify market turmoil. In our opinion, major central banks will continue with announced policy tightening. Risk of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March dropped but a 25 bp rate hike looks like a done deal. What's next? A key question for global markets now is - how much will the conflict escalate? An answer to this question will be a key to calming the markets. Once it is answered, calculations of impact on sanctions and speculations over changes in economic policy will begin.

S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis isn‘t how an S&P 500 bottom looks like – downswing continues with more volatility ahead.Credit MarketsHYG is going down again, and credit markets are turning risk-off – look for Treasuries to do relatively better next, with little impact upon stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, and the upswing got a poweful ally. Whatever retracement seen next, would be marginal in light of the developments.Crude OilCrude oil upswing can be counted on to continue, and oil stocks would remain among the best performing S&P 500 pockets. Black gold is though notorious for its wild volatility, and the coming days won‘t be an exception.CopperCopper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t in a rally mode, but are attempting to put in a low. I don‘t think it would hold, the dust hasn‘t settled yet.SummaryS&P 500 is plunging, and attempting to base, but more selling would inevitably hit. The overnight dust hasn‘t settled yet, but the panic lows would not happen today. Even if it weren‘t for geopolitics, stocks were in rough waters for weeks already, in a serious, yields and liquidity driven correction, with a slowing real economy on top. For all the short-term focus, the buying opportunity would materialize only once the Fed turns – by autumn 2022. The best places to be in right now, are those presented below – precious metals and commodities – as inflation fires continue to rage on.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

I discussed the potential for the invasion into Ukraine with a friend over the past few days and how this new war may change the global economy. We ended up discussing the Invasion of Kuwait that took place in August 1990. At that time, as soon as the Invasion of Kuwait started, consumers almost immediately changed their spending and financial habits.Suddenly, people stopped going out to dinner after work. They stopped going out for drinks. They also stopped playing computer games and spending money on most outside entertainment (movies and movie rentals – back in the Blockbuster days). In short, consumers became fascinated by the televised war and lost focus on almost everything else.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! As the conversation progressed, we started talking about how the US Federal Reserve may suddenly find that consumers have begun pulling away from traditional spending habits and how quickly these consumer trends can alter the economic landscape. For example, nearly 60 days into the Invasion of Kuwait, my friend remembered the US economy shifted into a much slower gear, and consumers continued to stay away from more normal spending habits.If this happens in today's super-inflated world, we may see a sudden shift in inflation, retail, housing, and general consumer demand very quickly. Recently, I started receiving messages from friends and clients worldwide who are focused on the Invasion of Ukraine – a whole new generation of people who may become entranced in the televised war (again).Consumer Retail May Suffer A -60% CollapseThis XRT Weekly Chart highlights the pre-COVID support levels that may become future targets if consumer spending habits suddenly shift. XRT has already fallen nearly -32% from the recent highs. If consumers continue to move away from outside economic activities, or more common post-COVID economic activities, we may see the Retail sector continue to move lower.Housing May Contract Faster Than ExpectedReal Estate may contract to near the COVID lows if consumers shy away from chasing speculative price trends in housing. Flipping houses has become a very hot industry over the past 5+ years. Yet, suddenly larger firms like Zillow and OpenDoor started offloading their Real Estate inventory because consumer demand shifted ahead of the US Fed's proposed rate hikes in 2022. The double-whammy of rising rates and war may be similar to what happened in the US between 1993 and 1994 – a very stagnant housing market.IYR has already fallen -16.5% from the highs and may decline to levels closer to -30% (or more) before finding a bottom. Wars tend to shift economies and spending habits very quickly.What To Stay Focused On Amid All The NoiseTraders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

USDJPY bounces off daily support The US dollar jumps as traders seek safe haven assets over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The pair struggled for bids after it turned away from the double top (116.20) and has been grinding down a falling trend line. However, the daily support at 114.40 has proved to be a solid demand area by keeping February’s rebound intact. Strong momentum above the trend line and 115.20 forced sellers out of the game and would attract more purchasing power. A close above 116.20 would extend the rally towards 117.00 XAUUSD seeks support Gold whipsawed as markets await the Western response to the invasion of Ukraine. The rally accelerated after it broke above last June’s high at 1912. Momentum trading pushed the price to September 2020’s highs (1975) before reversing its course. 1880 is a fresh support after intraday buyers took profit. As sentiment shifts to the bullish side, the current pullback combined with a depressed RSI could trigger a bargain-hunting behavior. Renewed buying frenzy may send the metal to the psychological level of 2000. US 500 lacks support The S&P 500 weakens as investors fear spillover from the conflict in Ukraine. A break below the daily support at 4280 further put the bulls on the defensive. Last May’s lows, near 4040, are the next target as liquidation continues. The index may have entered the bear market as the sell-off could speed up in the coming weeks. On the daily chart, the RSI’s double-dip in the oversold area may offer a temporary relief. 4350 is the first hurdle ahead and the bears may look to fade any rebound amid soured sentiment.

After reaching the lows for the month, the first cryptocurrency received support from buyers, as was the case at the end of January. Of course, the growth dynamics were relatively modest, which indicates the caution of buyers. It is likely that these are long-term holders rather than short-term speculators, as markets generally remain wary. Interestingly, buying during the decline has become a key outline of the American session. After more than a 3% fall, US stock indices not only bounced back but also managed to show growth at the end of the day. This stimulated bitcoin to strengthen. A short-term surge of bullish sentiment could end quickly if risky assets resume their decline again. If the situation in Ukraine escalates even more, bitcoin may fall below $30,000 as investors leave for defensive assets. According to The New York Times, Russia is legalizing cryptocurrency to circumvent US sanctions. Otherwise, the country will not survive the growing sanctions pressure from Western countries. Bitcoin rose over the past day by 10.7% to $38,500, reducing the decline in 7 days to 5%. Ethereum jumped 12% but is still 10% lower than it was exactly a week ago. Other leading altcoins are moving almost in unison, adding about 10% in most cases. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, increased by 9.6% per day to $1.72 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index rose 0.3 points to 42.6%, due to a smaller strengthening of altcoins. The index of fear and greed of the crypto market has risen from 23 to 27, into the territory of fear.

S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests that the pace of the upswing would indeed likely slow, but the dips are being bought – even the 4,300 overnight level held unchallenged.VIX is slowly calming down, and it wouldn‘t be a one-way ride. I hate to say it, but we‘re trading closer to the more complacent end of the volatility spectrum – that‘s though in line with my assumption of toned down price appreciation expectations that I discussed on Sunday and yesterday:(…) While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes.Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.Precious metals have found a floor, and aren‘t selling off either. In fact, they are looking at a great week ahead, and the same goes for crude oil followed to a lesser degree by copper. Weekend developments on the financial front triggered a rush into cryptos, and the bullish prospects I presented yesterday, are coming to fruition.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookDaily S&P 500 consolidation as the bulls did shake off the opening setback rather easily – and the same goes for the late session trip approaching 4,310s. Expecting more volatility of the current flavor, and higher prices then.Credit MarketsHYG managed to close above Friday‘s values, and the overall bond market strength bodes well for risk appetite ahead. Let‘s consolidate first, and march higher later.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are consolidating the high ground gained, miners aren‘t yielding, and silver weakness yesterday actually bodes well for the very short term. Launching pad before the next upleg.Crude OilCrude oil bears have a hard time from keeping black gold below $100. The table is clearly set for further gains – the chart can be hardly more bullish.CopperCopper is a laggard, but will still participate in the upswing. Its current underperformance as highlighten by yesterday‘s downswing, is a bit too odd, i.e. bound to be reversed.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls were indeed the stronger party, and similarly to gold, it‘s hard to imagine a deep dive coming to frution. I‘m looking for the safety trade to be be ebbing and flowing, now with some crypto participation sprinkled on top.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround goes on, and we‘re undergoing a consolidation that‘s as calm as can be given the recent volatility. Credit markets and the dollar though continue favoring the paper asset bulls now, but their gains would pale in comparison with select commodities such as oil and gold‘s newfound floor. Even agrifoods look to be sold down a bit too hard, and I‘m not looking for them to be languishing next as much as they have been over the last two trading days. Cryptos upswing highlights the present global uncertainties faced – as I have written on Thursday that the world has changed, the same applies for weekend banking events being reflected in the markets yesterday.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The S&P 500 went sideways yesterday, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. Will the short-term uptrend resume? The broad stock market index lost 0.24% on Monday, after gaining 2.2% on Friday and 1.5% on Thursday. The sentiment improved following the Thursday’s rebound, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty following the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. On Thursday, the broad stock market reached the low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. And yesterday it went closer to the 4,400 level. For now, it looks like an upward correction. However, it may also be a more meaningful reversal following a deep 15% correction from the early January record high. The market sharply reversed its short-term downtrend, but will it continue the advance? This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower and we may see some more volatility. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,400 and the next resistance level is at 4,450-4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350, among others. The S&P 500 index broke slightly above the downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Remains Above the 4,300 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Thursday it sold off after breaking below the 4,200 level. Since Friday it is trading along the 4,300 mark. We are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index fluctuated following the recent rally yesterday. This morning it is expected to open 0.2% lower and we may see some further volatility. Obviously, the markets will continue to react to the Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index bounced from the new low on Thursday after falling almost 15% from the early January record high. We are maintaining our speculative long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XAUUSD grinds rising trendline Gold recovered after the first round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia ended without a resolution. The precious metal found support over 1885. The rising trendline from early February indicates that the general direction is still up despite a choppy path. The previous peak at 1974 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could send the price to the psychological level of 2000. The downside risk is a fall below the said support. Then 1852, near the 30-day moving average, would be the bulls’ second line of defense. AUDUSD attempts reversal The Australian dollar steadied after the RBA warned that energy prices could flare up inflation. A break above the previous high (0.7285) shows buyers’ strong commitment despite sharp liquidation. Sentiment swiftly recovered and may attract more buying interest. An overbought RSI may temporarily limit the upside. And the bulls could be waiting for a pullback to accumulate. 0.7220 is the closest support. A bullish close above the January peak at 0.7310 could initiate a reversal in the medium-term and extend gains towards 0.7400. CADJPY bounces back The Canadian dollar clawed back losses after the Q4 GDP beat expectations. A jump above 90.70 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, opening the door for a potential reversal. 91.10 is the next resistance and its breach could propel the loonie to this year’s high at 92.00. On the downside, the psychological level of 90.00 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. Otherwise, a drop to 89.30 would suggest that sentiment remains fragile. In turn, this would place the pair under pressure once again.

S&P 500 broke through 4,350s in what appears a back and forth consolidation, for now. Credit markets aren‘t leading to the downside – HYG merely corrected within the risk-on sentiment. Stocks and bonds are starting to live with the new realities, and aren‘t undergoing tectonic shifts either way no matter what‘s happening in the real world. Expect to see some chop not of the most volatile flavor next, and for the bulls to step in in the near future.What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. I hope you‘ve been enjoying my calls, and are secure in the turmoil around. Way more profits are on the way, and I am not even discussing the lastest agrifoods calls concerning wheat and corn, for all the right reasons (just check out the key exporters overview)…Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis time, the S&P 500 bulls didn‘t shake off the selling pressure – the broad retreat though smacks of temporary setback. As in that the direction to the downside hasn‘t been decided yet – I‘m looking for the buyers to dip their toes here.Credit MarketsHYG downswing didn‘t attract too many sellers, and was partially bought, which means that the pendulum is ready to shift (have a go at shifting) the other way now.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing just great, and can be counted on to extend gains. Remember about the rate raising reappreciation that I talked in the long opening part of today‘s analysis – at central banks, that‘s where to look financially.Crude OilCrude oil bears have been taken to the woodshed, except that not at all discreetly. Let‘s keep riding this bull that had brought great profits already, for some more – as I have learned, I was a lone voice calling for more upside before last week‘s events.CopperCopper is a laggard, but still taking part in the upswing. The prior underperformance which I took issue with yesterday, was indeed a bit too odd.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls are consolidating well reasoned and deserved gains, and the circumstances don‘t favor a steep downswing really. The current tight range is likely to be resolved to the upside in due course.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround is not a rickety-free ride, but goes on at its own shaky pace. Stocks are likely to consolidate today as bonds turn a little more in the risk-on side, which reflects last but not least the looming reassessment of hawkish Fed policies. That‘s where the puck is (and will increasingly be even more so as Wayne Gretzky would say) financially, and I discussed that at length in the opening part of today‘s analysis – have a good look. Precious metals and commodities already know they won‘t be crushed by any new Paul Volcker. Enjoy the profitable rides presented !Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The S&P 500 index topped the 4,400 level yesterday despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Will the uptrend continue?The broad stock market index gained 1.86% on Wednesday following its Tuesday’s decline of 1.6%, as it fluctuated following last week’s rebound from the new medium-term low of 4,114.65. It was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. So the sentiment improved recently, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Yesterday the index went slightly above the 4,400 level and it was the highest since Feb. 17.For now, it looks like an upward correction. However, it may also be a more meaningful reversal following a deep 15% correction from the early January record high. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.6% higher following better-than-expected Unemployment Claims number release. However, we may see some more volatility.The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,400 and the next resistance level is at 4,450-4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350, among others. The S&P 500 index broke above the downward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):Futures Contract Trades Along the Local HighsLet’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Thursday it sold off after breaking below the 4,200 level. And since Friday it was trading along the 4,300 mark. This morning it is trading along the local highs.We are maintaining our profitable long position, as we are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com):ConclusionThe S&P 500 index will likely open 0.6% higher this morning. We may see more short-term fluctuations and obviously, the markets will continue to react to the Russia-Ukraine conflict news.Here’s the breakdown:The S&P 500 index bounced from the new low on Thursday after falling almost 15% from the early January record high.We are maintaining our profitable long position.We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

After the war-driven gold rally, oil is starting to outperform. History between these two has already shown that someone may suffer. Many suggest: gold miners.The precious metals corrected some of their gains yesterday, but overall, not much changed in them. However, quite a lot happened in crude oil, and in today’s analysis we’ll focus on what it implies for the precious metals market and, in particular – for mining stocks.As you may have noticed, crude oil shot up recently in a spectacular manner. This seems normal, as it’s a market with rather inflexible supply and demand, so disruptions in supply or threats thereof can impact the price in a substantial way. With Russia as one of the biggest crude oil producers, its invasion of Ukraine, and a number of sanctions imposed on the attacking country (some of them involving oil directly), it’s natural that crude oil reacts in a certain manner. The concern-based rally in gold is also understandable.However, the relationship between wars, concerns, and prices of assets is not as straightforward as “there’s a war, so gold and crude oil will go up.” In order to learn more about this relationship, let’s examine the most similar situation in recent history to the current one, when oil supplies were at stake.The war that I’m mentioning is the one between Iraq and the U.S. that started almost 20 years ago. Let’s see what happened in gold, oil, and gold stocks at that time.The most interesting thing is that when the war officially started, the above-mentioned markets were already after a decline. However, that’s not that odd, when one considers the fact that back then, the tensions were building for a long time, and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion.The point here, however, is that the markets rallied while the uncertainty and concerns were building up, and then declined when the situation was known and “stable.” I don’t mean that “war” was seen as stable, but rather that the outcome and how it affected the markets was rather obvious.The other point is the specific way in which all three markets reacted to the war and the timing thereof.Gold stocks rallied initially, but then were not that eager to follow gold higher, but that’s something that’s universal in the final stages of most rallies in the precious metals market. What’s most interesting here is that there was a time when crude oil rallied substantially, while gold was already declining.Let me emphasize that once again: gold topped first, and then it underperformed while crude oil continued to soar substantially.Fast forward to the current situation. What has happened recently?Gold moved above $1,970 (crude oil peaked at $100.54 at that time), and then it declined heavily. It’s now trying to move back to this intraday high, but it was not able to do so. At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading at about $1,930, while crude oil is trading at about $114.In other words, while gold declined by $30, crude oil rallied by about $14. That’s a repeat of what we saw in 2003!What happened next in 2003? Gold declined, and the moment when crude oil started to visibly outperform gold was also the beginning of a big decline in gold stocks.That makes perfect sense on the fundamental level too. Gold miners’ share prices depend on their profits (just like it’s the case with any other company). Crude oil at higher levels means higher costs for the miners (the machinery has to be fueled, the equipment has to be transported, etc.). When costs (crude oil could be viewed as a proxy for them) are rising faster than revenues (gold could be viewed as a proxy for them), miners’ profits appear to be in danger; and investors don’t like this kind of danger, so they sell shares. Of course, there are many more factors that need to be taken into account, but I just wanted to emphasize one way in which the above-mentioned technical phenomenon is justified. The above doesn’t apply to silver as it’s a commodity, but it does apply to silver stocks.Back in 2004, gold stocks wiped out their entire war-concern-based rally, and the biggest part of the decline took just a bit more than a month. Let’s remember that back then, gold stocks were in a very strong medium- and long-term uptrend. Right now, mining stocks remain in a medium-term downtrend, so their decline could be bigger – they could give away their war-concern-based gains and then decline much more.Mining stocks are not declining profoundly yet, but let’s keep in mind that history rhymes – it doesn’t repeat to the letter. As I emphasized previously today, back in 2003 and 2002, the tensions were building for a longer time and it was relatively clear in advance that the U.S. attack was going to happen. This time, Russia claimed that it wouldn’t attack until the very last minute before the invasion. Consequently, the “we have to act now” is still likely to be present, and the dust hasn’t settled yet – everything appears to be unclear, and thus the markets are not returning to their previous trends. Yet.However, as history shows, that is likely to happen. Either immediately, or shortly, as crude oil is already outperforming gold.Investing and trading are difficult. If it was easy, most people would be making money – and they’re not. Right now, it’s most difficult to ignore the urge to “run for cover” if you physically don’t have to. The markets move on “buy the rumor and sell the fact.” This repeats over and over again in many (all?) markets, and we have direct analogies to similar situations in gold itself. Junior miners are likely to decline the most, also based on the massive declines that are likely to take place (in fact, they have already started) in the stock markets.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 returned above 4,350s as credit markets indeed weren‘t leading to the downside. Consolidation now followed by more upside, that‘s the most likely scenario next. Yesterday‘s risk-on turn was reflected also in value rising more than tech. Anyway, the Nasdaq upswing is a good omen for the bulls in light of the TLT downswing – Treasuries are bucking the Powell newfound rate raising hesitation – inflation ambiguity is back. The yield curve is still compressing, and the pressure on the Fed to act, goes on – looking at where real asset prices are now, it had been indeed unreasonable to expect inflation to slow down meaningfully. Told you so – as I have written yesterday:(…) What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals. – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. Crude oil keeps rising as if there‘s no tomorrow, copper is joining in, agrifoods are on fire – and precious metals continue being very well bid. Cryptos aren‘t selling off either. Anyway, this is the time of real assets...Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are back, and I‘m looking for consolidation around these levels. The very short-term direction isn‘t totally clear, but appears favoring the bulls unless corporate junk bonds crater. Not too likely.Credit MarketsHYG performance shows rising risk appetite, but the waning volume is a sign of caution for today. Unless LQD and TLT rise as well, HYG looks short-term stretched, therefore I‘m looking for consolidation today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and they merely corrected yesterday – both gold and silver can be counted on to extend gains if you look at the miners‘ message. As the prospects of vigorous Fed action gets dialed back, they stand to benefit even more.Crude OilCrude oil surge is both justified and unprecedented – and oil stocks aren‘t weakening. It looks like we would consolidate in the volatile range around $110 next.CopperCopper is joining in the upswing increasingly more, and the buyer‘s return before the close looks sufficient to maintain upside momentum that had been questioned earlier in the day. The break higher out of the long consolidation, is approaching.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto buyers are consolidating well deserved gains, and the bullish flag is being formed. The sellers are nowhere to be seen at the moment – I‘m still looking for the current tight range to be resolved to the upside next.SummaryS&P 500 has reached a short-term resistance, which would be overcome only should bonds give their blessing. It‘s likely these would confirm the risk-on turn, but HYG looks a bit too extended – its consolidation of high ground gained, could slow the stock bulls somewhat. The risk appetite and „rush to safety“ in commodities and precious metals goes on, more or less squeezing select assets such as crude oil. The CRB Index upswing is though of the orderly and broad advance flavor, and does reflect the prospects of inflation remaining elevated for longer than foreseen by the mainstream.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.As we've seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.Increased Volatility & The Start Of An Excess Phase Peak Should Be A Clear WarningThis increased volatility in the markets, coupled with the increased fear of the US Fed and the global unknowns (Ukraine, China, Debt Levels, and others), may be just enough pressure to crush any upside price trends over the next few months. Technically, my research suggests the $445 to $450 level is critical resistance. The SPY must climb above these levels to have any chance of moving higher.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Unless the US markets find some new support and attempt to rally back towards recent highs, an “Excess Phase Peak” pattern will likely continue to unfold throughout 2022. This unique price pattern appears to have already reached a Phase 2 or Phase 3 setup. Please take a look at this Weekly GE example of an Excess Phase Peak pattern and how it transitions through Phase 1 through Phase 4 before entering an extended Bearish price trend.Read this research article about Excess Phase Peaks: HOW TO SPOT THEN END OF AN EXCESS PHASE - PART 2SPY May Already Be In A Phase 4 Excess Peak PhaseThis Daily SPY chart highlights my analysis, showing the major downward sloping trend line, the Middle Resistance Zone, and the lower Support Zone. Combined, these are acting as a “Wedge” for price over the past few weeks – tightening into an Apex near $435~440.If the US major indexes attempt to break this downward price trend, then the price must attempt to move solidly above this downward sloping price channel and try to rally back into the Resistance Zone (near $445~$450). Unless that happens, the price will likely transition into a deeper downward price move, attempting to break below recent lows, near $410, and possibly quickly moving down to the $360 level.SPY Weekly Chart Shows Consolidation Near $435 – Possibly Starting A Phase 4 Excess PeakTraders should stay keenly aware of the risks associated with the broad US and global market decline as the Ukraine war, and other unknowns continue to elevate fear and concerns related to the global economy. In my opinion, with the current excess global debt levels, extended speculative market bubbles, and the continued commodity price rally, we may be starting to transition away from an extended growth phase and into a deeper depreciation cycle phase.My research suggests we entered a new Depreciation cycle phase in late 2019 and are already more than 25 months into a potential 9.5-year global Depreciation cycle. What comes next should not surprise anyone.Read this article about Depreciation Cycle Phases: HOW TO INTERPRET & PROFIT FROM THE RISKS OF A DEPRECIATION CYCLE Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. Looking Forward - preparing for a possible Bear marketMarket dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.Want Trading Strategies that Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

USDJPY tests supply areaThe Japanese yen stalled after an increase in January’s unemployment rate.The pair’s rally above the supply zone around 115.80 has put the US dollar back on track. The general direction remains up despite its choppiness. 114.40 has proved to be solid support and kept the bulls in the game.A close above 115.80 would extend the rally to the double top (116.30), a major resistance on the daily chart. Meanwhile, an overbought RSI caused a limited pullback, with 115.10 as fresh support.NZDUSD breaks resistanceThe New Zealand dollar recovers amid commodity price rallies.After the pair found support near last September’s lows (0.6530), a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment could be turning around. A bullish breakout above the recent high (0.6810) would further boost buyers’ confidence and lift offers to January’s high at 0.6890.On the downside, 0.6730 is the first support if buyers struggle to gather more interest. 0.6675 would be a second layer to keep the current rebound intact.UK 100 lacks supportThe FTSE 100 slipped after the second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without much result.The index met stiff selling pressure at 7560 then fell below the critical floor at 7170. Increasingly bearish sentiment triggered a new round of sell-off to the psychological level of 7000 from last November.A deeper correction would lead to a retest of 6850, dampening the market mood in the medium-term. On the upside, the bulls must clear 7300 and 7450 to reclaim control of the direction.

Bitcoin price sees its gains being pared back a bit after more talks on regulatory crackdown out of U.S. on cryptocurrencies. Ethereum price slips further away from $3,018 after Powell's speech before Congress talked about regulating cryptocurrencies. XRP price sideways, awaiting a catalyst to go either way. Cryptocurrencies are facing some headwinds – whilst they have enjoyed more inflows of late as both Ukrainian and Russian inhabitants reverted to cryptocurrencies as an alternative means of payment to avoid sanctions – there are signs this loophole will soon be closed. During Biden's State of the Union speech the president asked for a crackdown on cryptocurrencies to close the escape route for wealthy Russians. FED chair Powell added fuel to the fire by saying that he would welcome further regulation to monitor and control cryptocurrencies better. The result is that these comments have triggered some nervousness in all significant cryptocurrency pairs. Bitcoin bulls are rejected at $44,088 with the risk of sliding back to $42,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a full paring back of the losses accumulated during the Russian invasion as cryptocurrencies saw renewed cash inflow from both Russians and Ukrainians looking for alternative means of payment after both central banks had put in cash withdrawal restrictions. As Bitcoin looked to be poised for another leg higher, both Biden and Powell created some headwinds by urging for more regulatory crackdown, as it is emerging that cryptocurrencies are undermining sanctions on Russia. With this renewed negative attention towards cryptocurrencies, investors are being quick to book profits and, in the process, are pushing BTC price action to the downside. BTC price saw an initial rejection at $45,261, a level which coincides with the low of December 17, and as such triggered some profit-taking. As profit-taking continues bulls are faced with another rejection at $44,088, a level that goes back to August 06. Below that, the search for support finds nothing until $41,756 or the psychological $42,000 level near the baseline of a bearish triangle we had marked up earlier. BTC/USD daily chart As more talks are underway, a breakthrough could still happen at any moment. If that happened, it would mean that bears would fail in their attempt to squeeze out bulls and get stopped out themselves once the price pierced through $44,088 to the upside. That move would even accelerate after shooting through $45,261, with a quick rally to $48,760 and, from there, positioning Bitcoin to pop back above $50,000 next week. Ethereum bulls are defending the 55-day SMA, but support is wearing thin Ethereum (ETH) price takes another step back today after more negative connotations from FED Chair Powell in the house hearing before Congress. Next to committing to more rate hikes, Powell also drilled down on cryptocurrencies and called them a risk that needs to be prioritised with regulations. That puts greater regulation for cryptocurrencies at the top of the congressional agenda – after Ukraine, and inland inflation had pushed that bullet point further down the list. For the moment, ETH sees bulls defending the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,880. Although it looks good to hold for now, in the past, the 55-day SMA has not built a solid reputation of being well respected. So expect a possible breach once the US session kicks in and Powell makes more negative comments on cryptocurrencies in his second day of congressional hearings, which will likely push ETH price below the 55-day SMA at $2,880, through the monthly pivot at $2,835, and down to a possible endpoint at around $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart As the situation in Russia further deteriorates with more sanctions on the shelf, residents will be forced even more to flee into cryptocurrencies to avoid any repercussions from the financial sanctions imposed. That would mean broad flux inflow throughout the coming days, with ETH price action popping above $3,018, and in the process breaking the double top of rejection from Tuesday and Wednesday. To the upside, that could see $3,391 for a test as the inflow will outweigh any bearish attempts from short sellers. XRP price testing monthly pivot to the downside as dollar strength weighs Ripple's (XRP) price is under pressure to the downside as bears are putting in their effort to break the new monthly pivot at $0.76. Bears are getting help from the other side of the asset pair by the dollar’s strength weighing on price action for a second consecutive day. With Ukraine's current tension and possible retaliation from Russia against the West, safe havens are broadly bid with the Greenback on the front foot and thus outpacing XRP’s valuation, resulting in a move lower. Expect XRP price to see an accelerated move once the monthly pivot at $0.76 gives way. With not much in the way, the road is open to drop to $0.62, with $0.70 and $0.68 as possible breaking off points where bears could see some profit-taking and attempts by bulls to halt the downturn. But the trifecta of the negative comments from both Biden and Powell joined with the safe-haven bid is too big of a force to withstand, making $0.62 almost inevitable in the coming hours or trading days. XRP/USD daily chart The only event that could turn this around is if a catalyst were to remove the safe-haven bid. That could come with a resolution of the current tension in Ukraine or surrender of the Russian army of some sort. In such an outcome, the safe-haven bid would evaporate, followed by a massive risk-on flow which would see XRP pop above $0.78 and rally to $0.88, taking out $0.84 along the way to the upside.

  Kherson fell, but Ukrainians are still fighting fiercely. In the face of war, gold also shows courage – to move steadily up. The battle of Ukraine is still going on. Russian troops took control of Kherson, a city of about 300,000 in the south of Ukraine, but other main cities haven’t been captured yet. Ukrainian soldiers even managed to conduct some counter-offensive actions near the country’s capital. There is a large Russian column advancing on Kyiv, but its progress has been very slow over the last few days due to the staunch Ukrainian resistance and Russian forces’ problems with equipment, tactics, and supplies, including fuel and food. David is still bravely fighting Goliath! Of course, Russian forces still have an advantage and are progressing. However, the pace of the invasion is much slower than Vladimir Putin and his generals expected. The Ukrainians’ defense is much fiercer, while Russia’s losses are more severe. The Russian defense ministry admitted that 498 Russian soldiers have already been killed and 1,597 wounded, but the real number is probably much higher. Even if Russia takes control of other cities, it’s unclear whether it will be able to hold them. What’s more, although the West didn’t engage directly in the war, the response of the West was much stronger than Putin could probably have expected. The US and its allies supplied Ukraine with weapons and imposed severe sanctions against Putin and the Russian governing elite, as well as on Russia’s economy and financial system. For instance, the West decided to exclude several Russian banks from SWIFT and also to freeze most of Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserve assets. Additionally, many international companies are moving out of Russia or exporting their products to this country, adding to the economic pressure. The ruble plummeted, as the chart below shows.   Implications for Gold What does the ongoing war in Ukraine mean for the precious metals market? Well, the continuous heroic stance of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukrainian defenders is not only heating up the hearts of all freedom-lovers, but also gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has soared to about $1,930, the highest level since January 2021. As a reminder, until recently, gold was unable to surpass $1,800. Thus, the recent rally is noteworthy. The war is clearly boosting the safe-haven demand for gold. Another bullish driver is rising inflation. According to early estimates, euro area annual inflation soared from 5.1% in January to 5.8%, and the war is likely to add to the inflationary pressure due to rising energy prices. Both Brent and WTI oil prices have surged above $110 per barrel. Last but not least, I have to mention Powell’s appearance before Congress. In the prepared testimony, he said that the Fed would hike the federal funds rate this month, despite the war in Ukraine: Our monetary policy has been adapting to the evolving economic environment, and it will continue to do so. We have phased out our net asset purchases. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month. This sounds rather hawkish and, thus, bearish for gold. However, Powell acknowledged that the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The near-term effects on the U.S. economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain. Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. Hence, the war in Eastern Europe could make the Fed more dovish than expected at a time when inflation could be higher than forecasted before the war outbreak. Such an environment should be bullish for the gold market. However, there is one important caveat. The detailed analysis of gold prices shows that they declined around the first and second rounds of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats in anticipation of the end of the conflict. However, when it became apparent that the talks ended in a stalemate, gold resumed its upward move. The implication should be clear: as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine, but when the ceasefire or truce is agreed, we could see a correction in the gold market. It doesn’t have to be a great plunge, but a large part of the geopolitical premium will disappear. Having said that, the war may take a while. I pray that I’m wrong, but the slow progress of the Russian invasion could prompt Vladimir Putin to adopt a “whatever it takes” stance. According to some experts, he is already more emotional than usual, and when faced with the prospects of failure, he could become even more brutal or irrational. We already see that Russian troops, unable to break the Ukrainian defense in open combat, siege the cities and bomb civilians. Hence, the continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500 consolidation isn‘t turning out well for the bulls as 4,300 can be easily broken again if I look at credit markets‘ posture. Treasuries just aren‘t sliding no matter the Fed‘s ambiguity on inflation, let alone markets sniffing out rate hike ideas getting revisited. Still, tech gave up opening gains, and closed on a weak note while commodities and precious metals maintained high ground, and the dollar continued rising.The odds are stacked against paper market bulls, and as I had been telling you weeks ago already, this is the time of real assets outperformance. In this sense, miners‘ leadership is a great confirmation of more strength to come, of inflation to continue… Everyone‘s free to make their own opinion after the State of the Union address.On the bright side, the flood of recently closed series of trades spanning stocks, precious metals, oil and copper, has resulted in sharp equity curve gains – and more good calls are in the making, naturally:Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is facing a setback, which could turn a lot worse if the sentiment turn continues. Odds are it would, and we would see some selling going into the weekend.Credit MarketsHYG refused to extend opening gains, and the message is clear, and also a reaction to the Fed‘s pronouncements. Treasuries though are more careful in the tightening prospects assessment – risk-off in bonds and the dollar continues.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and are likely to continue rising no matter what the dollar does. There is no good reason for a selloff if you look around objectively. Miners are confirming, the upleg is underway.Crude OilCrude oil upswing isn‘t yet done, it would be premature to say so. It seems though that the time of volatile chop and new base building can continue – oil stocks are the barometer.CopperCopper outperformance leaves me a bit cautious – the advance is likely to slow down and get challenged next. It was a good run, and the red metal isn‘t at all done in the medium-term.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto downswing is reaching a bit farther than I would have been comfortable with. The buyers are welcome to step in on good volume, but I‘m not expecting miracles today or through the weekend.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are losing the initiative, and neither credit markets nor the dollar favor a turnaround today. Treasuries rising in spite of the Fed‘s messaging are also casting a clear verdict, and the yield curve compression continues. The risk-off sentiment that is getting an intermezzo here and there, is likely to rule unless the Fed makes a profound turn before the Mar FOMC. And given the inflation dynamics with all the consequences beyond economics, that‘s unlikely to happen. Markets are thus likely to continue fearing the confluence of events till...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

This month, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates. Contrary to popular belief, the tightening doesn't have to be adverse for gold. What does history show?March 2022 – the Fed is supposed to end its quantitative easing and hike the federal funds rate for the first time during recovery from a pandemic crisis . After the liftoff, the Fed will probably also start reducing the size of its mammoth balance sheet and raise interest rates a few more times. Thus, the tightening of monetary policy is slowly becoming a reality. The golden question is: how will the yellow metal behave under these conditions?Let’s look into the past. The last tightening cycle of 2015-2019 was rather positive for gold prices. The yellow metal rallied in this period from $1,068 to $1,320 (I refer here to monthly averages), gaining about 24%, as the chart below shows.What’s really important is that gold bottomed out in December 2015, the month of the liftoff. Hence, if we see a replay of this episode, gold should detach from $1,800 and go north, into the heavenly land of bulls. However, in December 2015, real interest rates peaked, while in January 2016, the US dollar found its local top. These factors helped to catapult gold prices a few years ago, but they don’t have to reappear this time.Let’s dig a bit deeper. The earlier tightening cycle occurred between 2004 and 2006, and it was also a great time for gold, despite the fact that the Fed raised interest rates by more than 400 basis points, something unthinkable today. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (monthly average) soared from $392 to $634, or more than 60%. Just as today, inflation was rising back then, but it was also a time of great weakness in the greenback, a factor that is currently absent.Let’s move even further back into the past. The Fed also raised the federal funds rate in the 1994-1995 and 1999-2000 periods. The chart below shows that these cases were rather neutral for gold prices. In the former, gold was traded sideways, while in the latter, it plunged, rallied, and returned to a decline. Importantly, just as in 2015, the yellow metal bottomed out soon after the liftoff in early 1999.In the 1980s, there were two major tightening cycles – both clearly negative for the yellow metal. In 1983-1984, the price of gold plunged 29% from $491 to $348, despite rising inflation, while in 1988-1989, it dropped another 12%, as you can see in the chart below.Finally, we have traveled back in time to the Great Stagflation period! In the 1970s, the Fed’s tightening cycles were generally positive for gold, as the chart below shows. In the period from 1972 to 1974, the average monthly price of the yellow metal soared from $48 to $172, or 257%. The tightening of 1977-1980 was an even better episode for gold. Its price skyrocketed from $132 to $675, or 411%. However, monetary tightening in 1980-1981 proved not very favorable , with the yellow metal plunging then to $409.What are the implications of our historical analysis for the gold market in 2022? First, the Fed’s tightening cycle doesn’t have to be bad for gold. In this report, I’ve examined nine tightening cycles – of which four were bullish, two were neutral, and three were bearish for the gold market. Second, all the negative cases occurred in the 1980s, while the two most recent cycles from the 21st century were positive for gold prices. It bodes well for the 2022 tightening cycle.Third, the key is, as always, the broader macroeconomic context – namely, what is happening with the US dollar, inflation, and real interest rates. For example, in the 1970s, the Fed was hiking rates amid soaring inflation. However, in March 1980, the CPI annul rate peaked, and a long era of disinflation started. This is why tightening cycles were generally positive in the 1970s, and negative in the 1980s.Hence, it seems on the surface that the current tightening should be bullish for gold, as it is accompanied by high inflation. However, inflation is expected to peak this year. If this happens, real interest rates could increase even further, creating downward pressure on gold prices. Please remember that the real federal funds rate is at a record low level. If inflation peaks, gold bulls’ only hope will be either a bearish trend in the US dollar (amid global recovery and ECB’s monetary policy tightening) or a dovish shift in market expectations about the path of the interest rates, given that the Fed’s tightening cycle has historically been followed by an economic slowdown or recession.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

With a sharp decline over the weekend, Bitcoin wiped out the initial gains, gave away the positions to bears after the third straight week of gains. On Saturday and Sunday, there were drawdowns to $34K on the low-liquid market. So the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $38K with a 3.8% loss. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has reached $39,000 while Ethereum has lost 4.5%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten decline from 2% (XRP) to 6.8% (LUNA). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 3.8%, to $1.71 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index sank from 42.9% on Friday to 42.3% due to the sale of bitcoin over the weekend. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 23 now, remaining in a state of "extreme fear". Looking back, in the middle of the week, the index had a moment in the neutral position. The FxPro Analyst team mentioned that the sales were triggered by reports that the BTC.com pool banned the registration of Russian users. Cryptocurrencies do not remain aloof from politics, and they are weakly confirming the role of an alternative to the banking system now, supporting EU and US sanctions against Russia, and showing their own initiative. The news appeared that Switzerland would freeze the crypto assets of the Russians who fall under the sanctions. In the second half of the week, bitcoin lost almost all the growth against the backdrop of a decline in stock indices. Although, last week started on a positive wave: BTC added almost $8,000 (21%) since previous Monday, but couldn't overcome the strong resistance of mid-February highs at around $45,000 and the 100-day moving average. Speaking about the prospects, pressure on all risky assets will continue to be exerted by the situation around Ukraine, where hostilities have been taking place for two weeks. Worth mentioning that the world-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki said that the US is “destroying the dollar” and called for investing in gold and bitcoin. At the same time, the founder of the investment company SkyBridge Capital (Anthony Scaramucci) is confident that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2024. At the moment, he has invested about $1 billion in BTC. Plis, a group of American senators is developing a bill that opens access to the crypto market for institutional investors. And one more news to consider: the city of Lugano in Switzerland has recognized bitcoin and the leading stablecoin Tether (USDT) as legal tender.

Now is the time for traders to adapt to higher volatility and rapidly changing market conditions. One of the best ways to do this is to monitor different asset classes and track which investments are gaining and losing money flow. Knowing what the Best Asset Now is (BAN) is critical for consistent growth no matter the market condition.With that said, buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat, for example, gained more than 40% last week.‘Panic Commodity Buying’ in Wheat – Weekly ChartAccording to the US Dept. of Agriculture, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of rice and 51% of wheat by mid-2022.Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Global commodities, commodity funds, and commodity ETFs are attracting huge capital inflows as investors seek to cash in on the rally in oil, metals, and grains.How does the Russia – Ukraine war affect global food supplies?The conflict between major commodity producers Russia and Ukraine is causing countries that rely heavily on commodity imports to feed their citizens to enter into panic buying. The breadbaskets of Ukraine and Russia account for more than 25% of the global wheat trade and nearly 20% of the global corn trade.Last week, it was reported that many countries have dangerously low grain supplies. Nader Saad, an Egypt Cabinet spokesman, has raised the alarm that currently, Egypt has only nine months’ worth of wheat in silos. The supply includes five months of strategic reserves and four months of domestic production to cover the bread needs of 102 million Egyptians. Additionally, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s economic minister, said on Thursday (3/3/22) that his country should keep “a low profile” regarding the conflict in eastern Europe, given that Israel imports 50 percent of its wheat from Russia and 30 percent from Ukraine.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!The longer-term potential for much higher grain prices exists, but it’s worth noting that Friday’s close of nearly $12.00 a bushel for wheat is not that far away from the all-time record high of $13.30, recorded 14-years ago. According to Trading Economics, wheat has gone up 75.08% year-to-date while other commodity markets like Oats are up a whopping 85.13%, Coffee 74.68%, and Corn 34.07%.How are other markets reacting to these global events?Year-to-date comparison returns as of 3/4/2022:-9.18% S&P 500 (index), -7.49% DJI (index), -15.21% Nasdaq (index), +37.44% Exxon Mobile (oil), +20.08% Freeport McMoran (copper & gold), -20.68% Tesla (alternative energy), -24.49% Microstrategy (bitcoin play), -40.51% Meta-Facebook (social media)As stock holdings and 401k’s are shrinking it may be time to re-evaluate your portfolio. There are ETFs available that can give you exposure to commodities, energy, and metals.Here is an example of a few of these ETFs:+53.81% WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund+41.79% GSG iShares S&P TSCI Commodity -Indexed Trust+104.40 UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil+59.32% PALL Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium SharesHow is the global investor reacting to rocketing commodity prices and increasing market volatility?We can track global money flow by monitoring the following 1-month currency graph (www.finviz.com). The Australian Dollar is up +4.25%, the New Zealand Dollar +3.72%, and the Canadian Dollar +0.30% vs. the US Dollar due to the rising commodity prices like metals and energy. These country currencies are known as commodity currencies.The Switzerland Franc +0.96%, the Japanese Yen +0.35%, and the US Dollar +0.00% are all benefiting from global capital seeking a safe haven. As volatility continues to spike, these country currencies will experience more inflows as capital comes out of depreciating assets and seeks stability.We also notice that capital outflow is occurring from the European Union-Eurodollar -4.55% and the British Pound -2.22% due to their close proximity (risk) to the Russia - Ukraine war.www.finviz.comGlobal central banks will need to begin raising their interest rates to combat high inflation!Due to the rapid acceleration of inflation, the US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting two weeks from now. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16.What strategies can help you navigate current market trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals are starting to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

  The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next? A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown. On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role. US Dollar Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) On the geopolitical scene, Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be resumed today in Brest (Belarus) at 14:00 GMT, while another meeting is already scheduled at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Thursday in Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba will talk there in the presence of the Turkish foreign minister. We might therefore expect some de-escalation in the Black Sea basin this week if the two parties involved were able to reach an agreement after further negotiations. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2022 report, suggesting that even with non-hydro renewable sources set to rapidly grow through 2050, oil and gas-derived sources should still remain the top energy sources to fuel most of the United States. The agency is forecasting a rise in the production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – which mainly comes from shale gas – by at least 35%! In summary, the threat of sanctions has already wiped out almost all Russian oil – at least 7% of global supply – from the world oil market. In the weeks or months to come, we can see sanctions on Russian oil exports create a boomerang effect on European economies, decreasing world market supply, increasing prices for industry, as well as even more rising expenses, and thus cost of living through a ripple effect. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDCAD breaks higher The US dollar bounces back as traders pile into safer currencies at the expense of commodity assets. The previous rally above the supply zone at 1.2800 has prompted sellers to cover. Then a follow-up pullback saw support over 1.2600, a sign of accumulation and traders’ strong interest in keeping the greenback afloat. A breakout above 1.2810 could pave the way for an extended rise to last December’s high at 1.2950, even though the RSI’s situation may briefly hold the bulls back. 1.2680 is a fresh support in case of a pullback. EURGBP bounces back The euro recoups losses as shorts cover ahead of the ECB meeting. The pair’s fall below the major floor (0.8280) on the daily chart further weighs on sentiment. The lack of support suggests that traders’ are wary of catching a falling knife. The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area has led to profit-taking, driving the price up. However, the rally could turn out to be a dead cat bounce if the bears fade the rebound in the supply zone around 0.8360. 0.8200 is a fresh support when momentum comes back again. SPX 500 struggles to rebound The S&P 500 extended losses as investors are wary of a global economic downturn. On the daily chart, a brief rebound has met stiff selling pressure on the 30-day moving average (4410). In fact, this indicates that the bearish mood still dominates after the index fell through 4250. Buyers have failed to hold above 4230, leaving the market vulnerable to another round of sell-off. 4110 is the next stop and a bearish breakout could lead to the psychological level of 4000. 4320 is now the closest resistance ahead.

Bitcoins image boost   In times of war, unfortunately, other news is quickly overshadowed temporarily. Gold, monthly chart, cup and handle: Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 7th, 2022. One significant factor is the gold bullish monthly chart with its cup and handle price formation. The larger time frame of the related market plays a substantial role in inter-market analysis. Gold, leading wealth preservation “insurance” for your money in inflationary times, should be on a bitcoin trader/investor’s radar. We find a bullish tone in gold to support possible bitcoin price increases.     Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, monthly chart, bitcoin is cheap: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, monthly chart as of March 8th, 2022. An additional welcoming factor can be found in the monthly chart of the bitcoin relationship towards gold. Presently, around 20 ounces buy you one bitcoin, while in the last quarter of last year, the same bitcoin cost you instead 37 ounces of gold. Consequently, those who have exited a fiat currency system or those who constructively hedge their wealth preservation portfolio might have a greater focus on bitcoin currently as on gold; it is cheaper. Bitcoin, weekly chart, still a couple weeks: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 8th, 2022. A look at a weekly bitcoin chart shows temporary weakness in a general up slope near an entry zone. The last two weeks provided for substantial income-producing trading through partial profit-taking. Bitcoin had delivered a 32% range from US$34,322 to US$45,400. Unfortunately, there was no directional follow-through beyond this point, and bitcoin has yet again retraced substantially. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering right above a low-risk entry zone again, and we are hawkishly looking out for low-risk entries. A look into the past shows that it took bitcoin ten weeks to turn around in scenario A. Our timing prognosis is another two weeks now before we see possibly fast advancements. Bitcoins image boost: Some think of chocolate when thinking of Switzerland, and indeed this news is sweet to the bitcoin community. Bitcoins’ last step to gain momentum is widespread adoption. News, like the 10% increase in GDP since El Salvador’s declaration of bitcoin being accepted legal tender, is impressive. Yet, it is still met with doubt due to either political or economic situations of countries that have adopted bitcoin so far. With a central money mecca now representing progressive bitcoin use and old history of a conservative, strong financial stability image backing such behavior, widespread mass doubt can be swayed towards more bitcoin adaptation.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 8th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

The British pound was down to a 16-month low at 1.3080 in the morning, having lost 2% last Thursday. The pressure on the British currency looks to be developing capital outflows from Europe on speculation that reduced energy and materials supplies from Russia will prove to be a shock to the region's economy in the near term. In addition, the British pound was probably influenced by technical factors yesterday and today. The single currency has been sharply oversold in recent days and the EURGBP approach of 0.8200 on Monday morning triggered a strong wave of buying, bringing the pair back above 0.8310. On Monday, the euro got visible support against a wide range of other currencies, from the Swiss franc to the New Zealand dollar. Interest in the euro was also supported on Tuesday by a rally in equities on EU plans to issue joint bonds. But these are also good fundamentals for the British currency, which often directly correlates to the stock market. Short-term, relatively strong oversold conditions in the British currency creates the potential for a technical bounce in the coming days and in the area of 1.30-1.31 to stop its decline, gaining strong buy support until the end of the week and further heading to 1.3350 by the end of the month.

S&P 500 indeed didn‘t reverse on Friday in earnest, and both tech and value sold off hard. Not much reason to be bullish thanks to credit markets performance either – the posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains). And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, let‘s bring up yesterday‘s rate raising thoughts and other relevant snippets: (,,,) If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come. Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback. Which stocks would do best then? Here are my key 4 tips – energy, materials, in general value, and smallcaps. But the true winners of the stagflationary period is of course going to be commodities and precious metals. And that‘s where the bulk of recent gains that I brought you, were concentrated in. More is to come, and it‘s gold and silver that are catching real fire here. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 didn‘t do at all well yesterday, and signs of a short-term bottom are absent. It‘s entirely possible that the brief upswing that I was looking to be selling into to start the week, has been not merely postponed. Credit Markets HYG is clearly on the defensive, and TLT reassessing rate hike prospects – yet, long-dated Treasuries still declined. There is no appetite to buy bonds, and that confirms my thesis of lower lows to be made still in Mar. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep doing great, and will likely continue rising no matter what the dollar does – last three days‘ experience confirms that. This is more than mere flight to safety - I‘m looking for further price gains as the upleg has been measured and orderly so far. Crude Oil Crude oil‘s opening gap had been sold into, but we haven‘t seen a reversal yesterday. The upswing can continue, and it would happen on high volatility. I don‘t think we have seen the real spike just yet. Copper For all the above reasons, copper isn‘t rising as fast as other base metals (one of the key engines of commodities appreciation). The run is respectable, and not overheated. $5.00 would remain quite a tough nut to crack – for the time being. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos haven‘t made up their mind yet, but one thing is sure – they aren‘t acting as a safe haven. Given the extent of retreat from Mar highs, it means I‘m looking for not too spectacular performance in the days ahead. Summary S&P 500 missed an opportunity to rise (even if just to open the week on a positive note), and its prospects for today aren‘t way too much brighter. It‘s that practically nothing is giving bullish signals for paper assets, and the market breadth has understandably deteriorated. The rush into precious metals, dollar and commodities remains on – these are the pockets of strength, lifting to a very modest and hidden degree Treasuries as well (these are however reassessing the hawkish Fed prospects) at a time when global growth downgrades are starting to arrive. Pretty serious figures, let me tell you. As I wrote yesterday, stocks may even undershoot prior Thursday‘s lows, but I‘m not looking for that to happen. The sentiment is very negative already, the yield curve keeps compressing, commodities are rising relentlessly, and all we got is a great inflation excuse / smoke screen. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and supply chain disruptions and other geopolitical events can and do exacerbate that. Just having a look at the rising dollar when rate hike prospects are getting dialed back, tells the full risk-off story of the moment, further highlighted by the powder keg that precious metals are. And silver isn‘t yet outperforming copper, which is something I am looking for to change as we go by. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Boeing stock falls as Russian raw material supplies are likely to be in short supply. Boeing earlier said it was suspending buying Russian titanium. BA stocks fell over 6% on Monday as main indices fell over 3%. Boeing (BA) stock slipped on Monday, even disproportionally versus the main market. While the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell in the region of 3% to 4%, Boeing underperformed as it fell just under 6.5%. Boeing Stock News Monday's move took Boeing stock to new 52-week lows as the stock remains pressured in the current risk-off environment. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Boeing had suspended purchases of titanium from Russia as the company felt it had enough supply from other sources. “Our inventory and diversity of titanium sources provide sufficient supply for airplane production, and we will continue to take the right steps to ensure long-term continuity,” a Boeing spokeswoman told WSJ. Also on Monday Cowen & Co. lowered their price target for Boeing from $265 to $230. Cowen maintained their outperform rating on Boeing. Breaking Defense had last week reported that Air Force One's replacement was running up to 17 months late, according to two sources. Boeing is the supplier of Air Force One. Boeing will also likely feel headwinds from the current surge in oil prices. While not directly affected, higher oil prices will flow through to higher airfares and a likely reduction in passenger demand. This would see a knock-on but delayed demand for additional planes affecting Boeing and its main competitor, Airbus. However, Boeing does have a large military division. At the end of 2021 the Boeing Defence, Space & Security division accounted for over 33% of total Boeing revenues. The US Department of Defense is the top customer of this division. Boeing Stock Forecast Breaking the 52-week low is significant, and from the weekly chart below we can see how Boeing failed to regain its pre-pandemic levels. This should have been setting off alarm bells as stocks and indices reached all-time highs. The aerospace sector was a special case, but technically this was a bearish signal. BA stock chart, weekly The daily chart outlines the series of bearish lower lows and highs. Any rally to $185 can be used to instigate fresh bearish positions. BA stock chart, daily

Bitcoin price action sees bulls storming out of the gate, with BTC bouncing off a $38,073 historical pivot. BTC price set to tick $39,780 intraday in a range-trading profile. Expect to see more upside, should BTC continue its rally from positive signals out of Ukraine, and punch through the 55-day SMA. Bitcoin price action is back on the front foot today as global markets surf positive news of a ceasefire and fresh round of talks between Russia and Ukraine. The lift in positive sentiment spilled over into cryptocurrencies and saw positive prints across the board. Bitcoin was no different, with the price up 2.30% for the day at the time of writing and a possible tick of over 4% profit going into the U.S. session this evening. Bitcoin sees bulls taking over in ceasefire setback for bears Bitcoin price action is whipsawing between $45,000 to the upside and $34,000 to the downside, in a bandwidth that has been drawn since January. With global markets remaining stressed and on edge, today is set to give a sigh of relief and blow off some steam out of the pressure cooker that is Ukraine. Expect to see further decompression going into the U.S. session as this positive news gets picked up and translated into another round of bullish uplift for the cryptocurrency. BTC price is set to tick $39,780 and will try to break the high of last weekend. But bulls will immediately face another level of resistance, with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $40,250, and the $40,000 level in the way. Add to that the monthly pivot at $41,000 – so within a $1,000 – and there are three bearish elements capable of cutting short any attempts for further upside if no additional relief catalysts are added to the current headlines. BTC/USD daily chart Over the weekend, a ceasefire was already tried but failed after just a few minutes. Should that be the case again, expect this to break the fragile trust that has been in place now since recent talks yesterday. Expect BTC price action to be pushed back to $38,073 a drop of around 4%.

  Russian forces have made minimal progress against Ukraine in recent days. Unlike the invader, gold rallied very quickly and achieved its long-awaited target - $2000! Nobody expected the Russian inquisition! Nobody expected such a fierce Ukrainian defense, either. Of course, the situation is still very dramatic. Russian troops continued their offensive and – although the pace slowed down considerably – they managed to make some progress, especially in southern Ukraine, by bolstering air defense and supplies. The invaders are probably preparing for the decisive assault on Kyiv. Where Russian soldiers can’t break the defense, they bomb civilian infrastructure and attack ordinary people, including targeting evacuation corridors, to spread terror. Several Ukrainian cities are besieged and their inhabitants lack basic necessities. The humanitarian crisis intensifies. However, Russian forces made minimal ground advances over recent days, and it’s highly unlikely that Russia has successfully achieved its planned objectives to date. According to the Pentagon, nearly all of the Russian troops that were amassed on Ukraine’s border are already fighting inside the country. Meanwhile, the international legion was formed and started its fight for Ukraine. Moreover, Western countries have recently supplied Ukraine with many hi-tech military arms and equipment, including helicopters, anti-tank weapons, and anti-aircraft missiles, which could be crucial in boosting the Ukrainian defense.   Implications for Gold What does the war in Ukraine imply for the precious metals? Well, gold is shining almost as brightly as the Ukrainian defense. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has surged above $1,980 on Monday (March 7, 2022), the highest level since August 2020. What’s more, as the next chart shows, during today’s early trading, gold has soared above $2,020 for a while, reaching almost an all-time high. In my most recent report, I wrote: “as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine (…). The continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices.” This is exactly what we’ve been observing. This is not surprising. The war has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, while investors have become more risk-averse and have continued selling equities. As you can see in the chart below, the S&P 500 Index has plunged more than 12% since its peak in early January. Some of the released funds went to the gold market. What’s more, the credit spreads have widened, while the real interest rates have declined. Both these trends are fundamentally positive for the yellow metal. Another bullish driver of gold prices is inflation. It’s already high, and the war in Ukraine will only add to the upward pressure. The oil price has jumped above $120 per barrel, almost reaching a record peak. Higher energy prices would translate into higher CPI readings in the near future. Other commodities are also surging. For example, the Food Price Index calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has soared above 140 in February, which is a new all-time high, as the chart below shows. Higher commodity prices could lead to social unrest, as was the case with the Arab Spring or recent protests in Kazakhstan. Higher energy prices and inflation imply slower real GDP growth and more stagflationary conditions. As a reminder, in 2008 we saw rapidly rising commodities, which probably contributed to the Great Recession. In such an environment, it’s far from clear that the Fed will be very hawkish. It will probably hike the federal funds rate in March, as expected, but it may soften its stance later amid the conflict between Ukraine and the West with Russia and elevated geopolitical risks. The more dovish Fed should also be supportive of gold prices. However, when the fighting cools off, the fear will subside, and we could see a correction in the gold market. Both sides are exhausted by the conflict and don’t want to continue it forever. The Russian side has already softened its stance a bit during the most recent round of negotiations, as it probably realized that a military breakthrough was unlikely. Hence, when the conflict ends, gold’s current tailwind could turn into a headwind. Having said that, the impact of the conflict may not be as short-lived this time. I'm referring to the relatively harsh sanctions and high energy prices that may last for some time after the war is over. . The same applies to a more hawkish stance toward Russia and European governments’ actions to become less dependent on Russian gas and oil. A lot depends on how the conflict will be resolved, and whether it brings us Cold War 2.0. However, two things are certain: the world has already changed geopolitically, and at the beginning of this new era, the fundamental outlook for gold has turned more bullish than before the war. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

USDJPY breaks higherThe Japanese yen softened after weaker-than-expected GDP in Q4. Despite choppiness in recent price action, confidence in the greenback remains high.A failed attempt at the supply zone (115.80) suggests a lack of momentum, but a swift bounce off 114.65 reveals strong enough buying interest.A bullish breakout would lead to the double top at 116.35. Its breach could end the two-month-long consolidation and trigger an extended rally towards January 2017’s highs around 118.00. 115.40 is fresh support.AUDUSD seeks supportThe Australian dollar stalls as commodity prices consolidate. The rally above 0.7310, a major supply area, has weakened selling pressure and put the pair on a bullish reversal course.The Aussie’s parabolic ascent and an overbought RSI prompted short-term buyers to take profit. As the RSI swings back into the oversold zone, the bulls may see the current fallback as an opportunity to stake in.0.7380 is a fresh resistance and 0.7250 is the immediate support. Further below 0.7170 is a critical level to keep the rebound valid.UK 100 sees limited bounceThe FTSE 100 struggles as the UK plans to ban Russian energy imports.On the daily chart, a break below the demand zone (6850) wiped out 11-months worth of gains and signaled a strong bearish bias. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound, but a bearish MA cross could attract more selling interest.The liquidation is yet to end as medium-term buyers scramble for the exit. 7200 is a fresh resistance and 7450 is a major supply zone. A drop below 6800 may lead to 6500.

The last bitcoin growth impulse confirmed the break of the downtrend: the chart confidently rebounded from the former upper limit of the downtrend trading range. However, as before in March, a consolidation above the previous highs in the area of $45K is required to confirm a break in the trend. As Ethereum dropped to a 10-day low, traders started buying put options in anticipation of the second cryptocurrency falling to $2,200. On March 14, the European Parliament will approve the final version of the bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies without wording that could be interpreted as a potential ban on bitcoin mining. US President Biden will also sign an executive order to regulate cryptocurrencies this week. The focus may be on tracking transactions and preventing circumvention of US sanctions. The cost of bitcoin in rubles has updated its historical highs, exceeding 5 million rubles. Bitcoin was not so expensive even in April and November 2021, when its price in dollars exceeded $60,000. In general, the benchmark cryptocurrency has jumped by 8.7% over the past day, to 41,450. Ethereum has added 7.9% over the same time, while other leading altcoins from the top ten show growth from 3.3% (XRP) to 21% (Terra). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 6.9% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The dominance index jumped to 43%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 1 point to 22, remaining in "extreme fear" territory.Bitcoin was bought on the decline to $38K, and the move to $40K on Wednesday morning caused a surge in buying, probably associated with the closing of part of the short positions, quickly bringing the rate to current values.

The Russian rouble remains under pressure, while all the new controls on currency transactions in Russia are alienating the exchange rate at home and on global FX. The 12% commission on currency purchases explains the difference between the external and domestic exchange rates. That said, one must realise that "catching the bottom" of the ruble is hardly wise when new sanctions are imposed almost on a daily basis. The economic landslide continues with extreme speed. Across the other EM markets, there is a concern or even pessimism about the medium-term outlook, and some relative easing of the fear level is striking in the stock markets today. Commodity markets, which continued their move towards new extremes yesterday, have encountered substantial selling, which continues today. Some reduction in the excitement can be attributed to hopes of progress towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.Nevertheless, the conditions already prevailing in commodity markets are putting serious pressure on EM equities and currencies. EM populations are more vulnerable to soaring basic food and energy prices and currencies to capital outflows due to flight to safety. All of this is tightening financial conditions is undermining the economic recovery that investors had hoped for at the start of the year because of the retreat of the pandemic. While the end of last year and the beginning of this one were sentiments that growth momentum was shifting from the US to Europe and emerging markets, events in recent weeks have not only returned EM markets to the downward trend but again show that US markets are the best refuge for capital. For example, Chinese indices are losing 35% (Hang Seng) to 43% (China H-star) from their February 2021 peak. And this trend will not quickly reverse even if the military conflict in Eastern Europe ends right now because economic and reputational damage has already been done, which will take months or even years to undo.

S&P 500 once again gave up intraday gains, and credit markets confirmed the decline. Value down significantly more than tech, risk-off anywhere you look. For days without end, but the reprieve can come on seemingly little to no positive news, just when the sellers exhaust themselves and need to regroup temporarily. We‘re already seeing signs of such a respite in precious metals and commodities – be it the copper downswing, oil unable to break $130, or miners not following gold much higher yesterday. Corn and wheat also consolidated – right or wrong, the market seeks to anticipate some relief from Eastern Europe.The big picture though hasn‘t changed:(…) credit markets … posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains).And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, ......its downswing would contribute to providing the Fed with an excuse not to hike in Mar by 50bp. After the prior run up in the price of black gold that however renders such an excuse a verbal exercise only, the Fed remains between a rock and hard place, and the inflationary fires keep raging on.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is reaching for the Feb 24 lows, and may find respite at this level. The upper knot though would need a solid close today (above 4,250) to be of short-term significance. Remember, the market remains very much headline sensitive.Credit MarketsHYG clearly remains on the defensive, but the sellers may need a pause here, if volume is any guide. Bonds are getting beaten, and the outlook remains negative to neutral for the weeks ahead. Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals keep doing great, but a pause is knocking on the door. Not a reversal, a pause. Gold and silver are indeed the go-to assets in the current situation, and miners agree wholeheartedly.Crude OilCrude oil is having trouble extending gains, and the consolidation I mentioned yesterday, approaches. I do not think however that this is the end of the run higher.CopperCopper is pausing already, and this underperformer looks very well bid above $4.60. Let the red metal build a base, and continue rising next, alongside the rest of the crowd.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos upswing equals more risk appetite? It could be so, looking at the dollar‘s chart (I‘m talking that in the summary of today‘s analysis).SummaryEvery dog has its day, and the S&P 500‘s one might be coming today or tomorrow. It‘s that the safe havens of late (precious metals, commodities and the dollar) are having trouble extending prior steep gains further. These look to be in for a brief respite that would be amplified on any possible news of deescalation. In such an environment, risk taking would flourish at expense of gold, silver and oil especially. I don‘t think so we have seen the tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

EURUSD bounces back The euro rallies on news that the EU may issue a joint bond to fund energy and defense. The pair found bids near May 2020’s lows (1.0810). An oversold RSI on the daily chart prompted sellers to take profit, easing the downward pressure. A rally above the immediate resistance at 1.0940 and a bullish MA cross may improve sentiment in the short term. However, buyers will need to clear the support-turned-resistance at 1.1160 before they could hope for a meaningful rebound. 1.0910 is the support in case of a pullback. GBPUSD inches higher The sterling claws back losses as risk appetite makes a timid return across the board. Following a three-month-long rebound on the daily chart, a lack of support at 1.3200 and a bearish MA cross shows strong selling pressure. A bounce-back above 1.3200 may only offer temporary relief as sellers potentially look to fade the rebound. 1.3350 is a key hurdle that sits along the 20-day moving average. 1.3080 is fresh support and its breach could trigger a new round of sell-off below the next daily support at 1.2880. USOIL breaks support WTI crude tumbled after the UAE said consider boosting production. The parabolic climb came to a halt at 129.00 and pushed the RSI into an extremely overbought condition on the daily chart. A bearish RSI divergence suggested a loss of momentum and foreshadowed a correction as traders would be wary of chasing the rally. A fall below 115.00 led buyers to bail out, triggering a wave of liquidation. 105.00 is the next support and a breakout could bring the price back to 95.00 near the 30-day moving average.

The Russian rouble has been on the decline, trading around 120 per dollar on the Moscow Exchange and making historic lows almost daily. Despite ever-increasing capital controls, the Russian currency is still unable to find a bottom, as tighter controls are only further discouraging buyers of the rouble. It would be logical to expect the opposite effect from restrictive measures on the Russian population, as desperate attempts to limit currency purchases only increase the feeling that the government has no control over the situation. Remembering the hyperinflation of the early 1990s, ordinary Russians and businesses are looking at hard currency as a last resort to save liquidity for a rainy day. Recent data on consumer activity also showed a surge in buyers. The initial drivers were not the mass exodus of foreign brands from the Russian market but the desire to spend the rapidly depreciating roubles. By the end of this week, this trend promises to become stronger, fuelled by the severest restrictions on capital controls in recent history, which do not allow the legal exchange of rubles for currency. In such an environment, it is difficult to expect the rouble to find a foothold before all sanctions on Russia are announced, and capital controls turn towards easing or go into fine-tuning mode

Five-day DAX Price Chart shows it went up after a significant decline few days ago. However, today’s daily chart shows there’s a small downtrend and many companies have decreased since yesterday. Significantly affected - two major automotive industries and Delivery Hero. All of presented charts are courtesy of TradingView.com GER 40 has caught the ‘ground level’, but still trades Ca. 8% lower than before warfare in the Eastern Europe as chart shows: But what about last 24 hours what triggers us mostly? A decline amounts to ca. 3%. Many of stocks have decreased by these three – BMW, MBG And DHER have done it significantly. Mercedes-Benz AG has declined by almost 6% BMW has neared the -7% level. Delivery Hero (DHER) has plunged by almost 6.5%, have a look at the chart below: Source: TradingView.com, Investing.com, Capital.com

S&P 500 tech driven upswing makes the advance a bit suspect, and prone to consolidation. I would have expected value to kick in to a much greater degree given the risk-on posture in the credit markets. The steep downswing in commodities and precious metals doesn‘t pass the smell test for me – just as there were little cracks in the dam warning of short-term vulnerability at the onset of yesterday, the same way there are signs of the resulting downswing being overdone now.And that has consequences for the multitude of open positions – the PMs and commodities super bull runs are on, and the geopolitics still support the notion of the next spike.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 turned around, and the volume isn‘t raising too many eyebrows. However, the bulls should have tempered price appreciation expectations, to put it politely...Credit MarketsHYG turned around, but isn‘t entirely convincing yet. We saw an encouraging first step towards risk-on turn that requires that the moves continue, which is unlikely today – CPI is here, and unlikely to disappoint the inflationistas.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals downswing looks clearly overdone, and I continue calling for a shallow, $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation next. This gives you an idea not to expect steep silver discounts either. Miner are clear, and holding up nicely.Crude OilCrude oil downswing came, arguably way too steep one. Even oil stocks turned down in spite of the S&P 500 upswing, which is odd. I‘m looking for gradual reversal of yesterday‘s weakness in both.CopperCopper has made one of its odd moves on par with the late Jan long red candle one – I‘m looking for the weakness to be reversed, and not only in the red metal but within commodities as such.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are giving up yesterday‘s upswing – they are dialing back the risk-on turn and rush out of the safe havens of late.SummaryThe S&P 500 dog indeed just had its day, but the price appreciation prospects are not looking too bright for today. With attention turning to CPI, and yesterday‘s „hail mary decline aka I don‘t need you anymore“ in the safe havens of late (precious metals, crude oil, wheat, and the dollar to name just a few) getting proper scrutiny, I‘m looking for gradual return to strength in all things real (real assets) – it‘s my reasonable assumption that the markets won‘t get surprised by an overwhelmingly positive headline from Eastern Europe at this point. Focusing on the underlying fundamentals and charts, I don‘t think so we have seen the real asset tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

NZDUSD consolidates gains The New Zealand dollar inched higher supported by roaring commodity prices. A break above the daily resistance at 0.6890 has put the kiwi back on track in the medium term. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests an acceleration to the upside. As sentiment improves, the bulls may see the current consolidation as an opportunity to accumulate. A close above 0.6920 would extend the rally to 0.7050. 0.6800 is the first support and 0.6730 over the 30-day moving average a key demand zone. XAGUSD seeks support Silver consolidates amid ongoing geopolitical instability. A bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the rally. A tentative break below 25.40 has prompted some buyers to take profit. While sentiment remains optimistic, a correction might be necessary for the bulls to take a breather. The psychological level of 25.00 is a major demand zone. Its breach could send the precious metal to 24.30 which sits on the 30-day moving average. A rally above 26.90 could propel the price to last May’s highs around 28.50. US 30 struggles for buyers The Dow Jones 30 turned south after talks between Russia and Ukraine stalled again. A rebound above 34000 has provided some relief. Nonetheless, enthusiasm could be short-lived after the index gave up all recent gains. The prospect of a bear market looms if this turns out to be a dead cat bounce. A fall below 32300 could trigger another round of liquidation and push the Dow to a 12-month low at 30800. On the upside, 33500 is the first resistance. The bulls will need to lift offers around 34100 before they could attract more followers.

  With each day of the Russian invasion, gold confirms its status as the safe-haven asset. Its long-term outlook has become more bullish than before the war. Two weeks have passed since the Russian attack on Ukraine. Two weeks of the first full-scale war in Europe in the 21th century, something I still can’t believe is happening. Two weeks of completely senseless conflict between close Slavic nations, unleashed without any reasonable justification and only for the sake of Putin’s imperial dreams and his vision of Soviet Reunion. Two weeks of destruction, terror, and death that captured the souls of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of civilians, including dozens of children. Just yesterday, Russian forces bombed a maternity hospital in southern Ukraine. I used to be a fan of Russian literature and classic music (who doesn’t like Tolstoy or Tchaikovsky?), but the systematic bombing of civilian areas (and the use of thermobaric missiles) makes me doubt whether the Russians really belong to the family of civilized nations. Now, for the warzone report. The country’s capital and largest cities remain in the hands of the Ukrainians. Russian forces are drawing reserves, deploying conscript troops to Ukraine to replace great losses. They are still trying to encircle Kyiv. They are also strengthening their presence around the city of Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian army heroically holds back enemy attacks in all directions. The defense is so effective that the large Russian column north-west of Kyiv has made little progress in over a week, while Russian air activity has significantly decreased in recent days.   Implications for Gold How has the war, that has been going on for already two weeks, affected the gold market so far? Well, as the chart below shows, the military conflict was generally positive for the yellow metal, boosting its price from $1,905 to $1989, or about 4.4%. Please note that initially the price of gold jumped, only to decline after a while, and only then rallied, reaching almost $2,040 on Tuesday (March 8, 2022). However, the price has retreated since then, below the key level of $2,000. This is partially a normal correction after an impressive upward move. It’s also possible that the markets are starting to smell the end of the war. You see, Russian forces can’t break through the Ukrainian defense. They can continue besieging cities, but the continuation of the invasion entails significant costs, and Russia’s economy is already sinking. Hence, they can either escalate the conflict in a desperate attempt to conquer Kyiv – according to the White House, Russia could conduct a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine – or try to negotiate the ceasefire. In recent days, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said he was open to a compromise with Russia. Today, the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers met in Turkey for the first time since the horror started (unfortunately, without any agreement). However, although gold prices may consolidate for a while or even fall if the prospects of the de-escalation increase, the long-term fundamentals have turned more bullish. As you can see in the chart below, the real interest rates decreased amid the prospects of higher inflation and slower economic growth. Russia and Ukraine are key exporters of many commodities, including oil, which would increase the production costs and bring us closer to stagflation. What’s next, risk aversion increased significantly, which is supportive of safe-haven assets such as gold. After all, Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is a turning point in modern history, which ends a period of civilized relations with Russia and relative safety in the world. Although Russia’s army discredited itself in Ukraine, the country still has nuclear weapons able to destroy the globe. As you can see in the chart below, both the credit spreads (represented here by the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread) and the CBOE volatility index (also called “the fear index”) rose considerably in the last two weeks. Hence, the long-term outlook for gold is more bullish than before the invasion. The short-term future is more uncertain, as there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends. However, given the lack of any decisions during today’s talks between Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers and the continuation of the military actions, gold may rally further. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

The new monthly package of UK statistics highlighted the fine shape of the economy in January. For the month, GDP rose by 0.8%, against an expected strengthening of 0.2% and the three-month growth rate accelerated from 1.0% to 1.1%. Industrial production strengthened by 0.7% for the month and 2.3% for January 2021, also beating economists' expectations. The UK economy started the year in good shape, responding positively to the easing of the coronavirus restrictions. This is short-term positive news for the British pound, which has managed to find support after touching another low since November 2020 at 1.3080 per dollar. A strong base in the economy will allow the Bank of England to strengthen its fight against inflation by raising rates. However, price shocks across many commodities and foodstuffs dramatically increase the chances of short-term stagflation in the UK as consumers will save more by cutting back on purchases of non-essential goods and services due to rising energy and food prices. The Ukrainian war crisis, now in its third week, has seen the GBPUSD fall 3.8%, taking more than 1/3 of the pair's rise from the lows at the start of the pandemic. A move below 1.3160 was a signal to a move into a deeper correction phase, and the pair could plunge to 1.2880 at the beginning of next week.

  Stock prices remain very volatile, as the Ukraine conflict keeps dominating headlines. Will the market reverse its downtrend? The S&P 500 index gained 2.57% on Wednesday, Mar. 9, as it retraced some of the recent decline. The broad stock market’s gauge got back to the 4,300 level after bouncing from its Tuesday’s low of 4,157.87. On Feb. 24 the index fell to the local low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.3% lower and we may see further consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,300, and the next resistance level is at 4,350-4,400, among others. On the other hand, the support level remains at 4,150-4,200. The S&P 500 index continues to trade above the recently broken downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – More Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. Recently it broke below the short-term consolidation. On Tuesday it fell to around 4,150, before bouncing back to the 4,200-4,250 level. We are still maintaining our long position, as we are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index bounced yesterday, but this morning it is expected to open lower. We will likely see some more news-driven volatility. For now, it looks like an upward correction but it may also be a more meaningful upward reversal. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index retraced some of the recent decline, but we may see more volatility. We are maintaining our long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Ethereum price faces a decisive moment as it coils up inside a symmetrical triangle. Investors can expect a 34% move in either direction, considering the ambiguous nature of the setup. A move to the upside seems unlikely due to the presence of multiple resistance barriers. Ethereum price action shows an interesting setup that forecasts the possibility of a massive move in both directions. However, considering the technical aspects, the probability of a down move appears more plausible for ETH. Ethereum price is stuck consolidating Ethereum price sets up three lower highs and two higher lows since January 24. Connecting these swing points using trend lines results in a symmetrical triangle formation. This technical formation forecasts a 34% move in either direction obtained by measuring the distance between the first swing high and low. A bullish breakout at roughly $2,882 puts the target at $3,874, but a bearish move below $2,405 reveals the target at $1,578. However, an upside move is less likely due to the presence of the weekly supply zone extending from $2,927 to $3,413. Moreover, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has kept the price capped for the last three months. Additionally, the 100-day SMA present inside the weekly supply zone makes this confluence a stiff hurdle to overcome. Therefore, a six-hour candlestick close below $2,405 would indicate a breakout and forecasts a 34% crash to $1,578. ETH bulls might prevent such a steep correction due to the weekly support level at $1,730. ETH/USDT 6-hour chart On the other hand, if Ethereum price witnesses a massive surge in buying pressure that kick-starts a bullish breakout, investors can expect the upside to be capped around the 200-day SMA at $3,543 or $3,600. Any move beyond this level will require a massive inflow of stablecoins or a pileup of bid orders, which is unlikely considering the consolidative nature of BTC and ETH’s correlation to it.

It would be good to end this week with some positive news like stock rally. In general UK100 perform quite well, but one popular brand has lost ca. 1.5% over last 24 hours. All charts are courtesy of TradingView.com Coca-Cola HBC (CCH) Chart Fresnillo (FRES) Has Plunged deeper – the loses amount to ca. 3% Associated British Food (ABF) chart also shows a decline. The price has declined by ca. 1.5% as CCH has done Source: TradingView.com

Shiba Inu price action sees volume wearing thinner due to investors remaining sidelined as peace talks in Ukraine stall. SHIB bulls are a bit puzzled about what to do next as global worries on inflation and Ukraine are dampening any upward potential in SHIB price action. Expect to see the price go sideways to lower today, heading into the weekend. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action has not been in a sweet spot for investors this week. With whipsawing price action and bears still sitting on lucrative gains, investors got burned several times on false breakouts and mixed signals coming from both the markets and price action in SHIB. Expect a large number of funds to stay sidelined as more peace talks get underway, but Russia’s stance of not wanting to meet Ukraine halfway, suggest those talks are likely to end in failure rather than success. Shiba Inu price reveals that bulls are not taking chances as new peace talks have no chance of succeeding Shiba Inu price action is on a slow downward burn after bulls got tempted in to what looked like a relief rally but instead turned out to be a full-fledged bull trap, squeezing bulls out of their positions, paring back all the gains accrued, and even making a new low for the week this morning. With the Relative Strength Index flatlining, it looks as if SHIB’s balance between bears and bulls is in gridlock as bulls do not want to engage without a clear positive catalyst, and bears are sitting on a pile of profits that they do not want to offload at the current levels. It will take either a breakthrough in peace talks or another catalyst to form some counterweight against the forecast of stagflation and further deterioration in Ukraine that is at the moment directing price action in Shiba Inu. SHIB price will test the new lows for this week and looks set to drop to the green ascending trend line near $0.00002108, which falls roughly in line with the low of February 24. Depending on how the US dollar behaves, expect to see some movement to the upside, but nowhere near the high of yesterday, so relatively muted below $0.00002400. Expect SHIB price action to go into the weekend within that price range, awaiting any headlines that could set the tone for next week. SHIB/USD daily chart If a breakthrough is made on some front, or some economic data opens a window of relief, expect to see a pop above $0.00002400, breaking the high of yesterday and opening up more upside towards $0.00002533, which is the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). SHIB price action would print a new high for the week with this. As the red descending trend line is in the near vicinity, expect possible bulls to try and reach out to that level, near $0.00002636, for a test and possible break to the upside if the positive sentiment only gains traction going into the weekend.

S&P 500 gave up the opening gains, but managed to close on a good note, in spite of credit markets not confirming. Given though the high volume characterizing HYG downswing and retreating crude oil, we may be in for a stock market led rebound today. It‘s that finally, value did much better yesterday than tech.CPI came red hot, but didn‘t beat expectations, yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and the commodity index didn‘t sell off too hard. It remains to be seen whether the miners‘ strength was for real or not – anyway, the yesterday discussed shallow $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation still remains the most likely scenario. I just don‘t see PMs and commodities giving up a lion‘s share of the post Feb 24 gains next.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 can still turn around, and the odds of doing so successfully (till the closing bell today), have increased yesterday. The diminished volume points to no more sellers at this point while buyers are waiting on the sidelines.Credit MarketsHYG has only marginally closed below Tuesday‘s lows – corporate junk bonds can reverse higher without overcoming Wednesday‘s highs fast, which would still be constructive for a modest S&P 500 upswing.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are indeed refusing to swing lower too much – the sector remains excellently positioned for further gains. For now though, we‘re in a soft patch where the speculative fever is slowly coming out, including out of other commodities. Enter oil.Crude OilCrude oil still remains vulnerable, but would catch a bid quite fast here. Ideally, black gold wouldn‘t break down into the $105 - $100 zone next. I‘m looking for resilience kicking in soon.CopperCopper fake weakness is being reversed, and the red metal is well positioned not to break below Wednesday‘s lows. I‘m not looking for selloff continuation in the CRB Index either.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos remain undecided, and erring on the side of caution – this highlights that the risk appetite‘s return is far from universal.SummaryS&P 500 missed a good opportunity yesterday, but the short-term bullish case isn‘t lost. Stocks actually outperformed credit markets, and given the commodities respite and value doing well, bonds may very well join in the upswing, with a notable hesitation though. That wouldn‘t be a short-term obstacle, take it as the bulls temporarily overpowering the bears – I still think that the selling isn‘t over, and that the downswing would return in the latter half of Mar if (and that‘s a big if) the Fed‘s response to inflation doesn‘t underwhelm the market expectations that have been dialed back considerably over the last two weeks. Token 25bp rate hike, anyone? That wouldn‘t sink stocks dramatically...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

From time to time, we may want to consider volatility as an ally. After all, why would highly volatile markets necessarily mean more losing trades?The first target was hit – BOOM! Today – just before the weekend – it is time to bank some profits from my recent trade projections (provided on March 2). Since then, the trade plan has provided our dear subscribers with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile.The first possibility is the swing trading with trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article.Trade entry triggered on Tuesday, March 8 (firm rebound on yellow band), stop lifted once price extends beyond mid-point (median) price between first target and entry, thus ending at $4.607 (black dotted line), given the market closed at its daily high of $4.704 (purple dotted line) that same day and assuming you entered that long trade at $4.550 (top of the yellow band). That was a quick one that lasted only a couple hours for the day traders who closed their trades at the regular market close (two candles later, see below chart). For the swing traders, the win-stop was triggered the next day (Wednesday) on the following pull-back. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart)The second option is to scale the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders).This method consists of “riding the tails” (or the shadows). To get a better grasp of this concept, let’s zoom out on a 4H-chart so you can see the multiple rebounds of the price characterized by the shadows (or tails) of candlesticks, where a crowd of bulls are placing buy orders around that yellow support zone, therefore squeezing bears by pushing prices towards the upside (like some sort of rope pulling game). This trading style often requires stops to be tighter with some profit-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5 (with usually fixed targets). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart)Third possibility: position trading. This is probably the most passive trading style, as it would suit everyone’s busy timetable (and be the most rewarding). This is usually the one we privilege at Sunshine Profits since it allows us to provide trade projections some time in advance for our patient sniper traders to lock in their trading targets and take sufficient time to assess the associated risk with each projection as part of a full trade plan (or flying map).Let’s zoom out again to spot our first target getting hit today on a daily chart so we can have an overall view of the next target to be locked in while lifting our stop to breakeven (entry), previous swing low ($4.450) or using an Average True Range (ATR) ratio as some of you may like to use:Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)That’s all folks for today. Have a great weekend!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDCAD struggles for supportThe Canadian dollar surged after a sharp drop in February’s unemployment rate. A break above the recent peak at 1.2875 has consolidated the US dollar’s lead.The RSI’s repeatedly overbought condition has led to some profit-taking. As the indicator swung into the oversold area, a pullback attracted bargain hunters in the demand zone between 61.8% (1.2700) Fibonacci retracement level and 1.2680.A rally above 1.2840 may resume the rally and send the pair to December’s high at 1.2960.EURJPY attempts reversalThe euro continues upward after the ECB left the door open to an interest rate hike. A pop above 128.60 has prompted sellers to reconsider their bets.However, traders can expect strong bearish pressure in the supply zone around 129.20. This level overlays with the 20-day moving average, making it a congestion area.An overbought RSI has tempered the initial comeback and the bulls need to consolidate their positions before they could push further. 126.50 is key support and 124.40 a second line of defense to keep the pair afloat.UK 100 bounces backThe FTSE 100 recoups losses as Britain’s GDP beat expectations in January. The rebound has gained traction after it broke above 7200.After a brief pause, the index met buying interest over 7050 and a bullish MA cross indicates an acceleration to the upside. Sentiment remains cautious from the daily chart perspective though and the bears could be waiting to sell into strength.7450 at the origin of the latest sell-off is a major hurdle as its breach could turn the mood around. Otherwise, there could be a revision of 6800 soon.

S&P 500 bulls again missed the opportunity, and credit markets likewise. Not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). In a risk-on environment, value and cyclicals such as financials would be reacting positively, but that‘s not the case right now. At the same time, equal weighted S&P 500 (that‘s RSP) hasn‘t yet broken below its horizontal support above $145, meaning its posture isn‘t as bad as in the S&P 500. Should it however give, we‘re going considerably below 4,000. That‘s why today‘s article is titled hanging by a thread. Precious metals and commodities continue consolidating, and the least volatile appreciation opportunity presents the red metal. And it‘s not only about copper – crude oil market is going through supply realignment, and demand is not yet being destroyed on a massive scale. Coupled with the long-term underinvestment in exploration and drilling (US is no longer such a key producer as was the case in 2019), crude oil prices would continue rising on fundamentals, meaning the appreciation pace of Feb-Mar would slow down. Precious metals would have it easy next as the Fed is bound to be forced to make a U-turn in this very short tightening cycle (they didn‘t get far at all, and inflation expectations have in my view become unanchored already). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and Nasdaq remains in a sorry state. 4,160s are the line in the sand, breaking which would accelerate the downswing. Inflation is cutting into the earnings, and stocks aren‘t going to like the coming Fed‘s message. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t keep at least stable – the pressure in the credit markets is ongoing, and the stock market bulls don‘t have much to rejoice over here. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downswings are being bought, and are shallow. The sellers are running out of steam, and the opportunity to go somewhat higher next, is approaching. Crude Oil Crude oil is stabilizing, but it may take some time before the upswing continues with renewed vigor. As for modest extension of gains, we won‘t be disappointed. Copper Copper had one more day of fake weakness, but the lost gains of Friday would be made up for next – and given no speculative fever here to speak of, it would have as good lasting power as precious metals. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos remain undecided, but indicate a little breathing room, at least for today. Still, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 is getting in a precarious position, but the internals aren‘t (yet) a screaming sell. Credit markets continue leading lower, and the risk-off positioning is impossible to miss. Not even financials are able to take the cue, and rise. It‘s that the rise in yields mirrors the ingrained inflation, and just how entrenched it‘s becoming. No surprise if you were listening to me one year ago – the Fed‘s manouevering room got progressively smaller, and the table is set for the 2H 2022 inflation respite (think 5-6% year end on account of recessionary undercurrents) to be superseded with even higher inflation in 2023, because the Fed would be forced later this year to turn back to easing. Long live the precious metals and commodities super bulls! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

It’s a quite good day for German most popular index. Charts - courtesy of TradingView.com There are three brands which should be definitely satisfied as shortly before markets closes… Deutsche Bank (DBK) has gone ca. 7.4% up: Porsche (PAH3) has added ca. 6%: Volkswagen has increased by ca. 5.2% Source: TradingView.com  

Bitcoin price loses momentum as it slides back into consolidation along the $36,398 to $38,895 demand zone. Ethereum price slides below a symmetrical triangle, hinting at a move below $2,000. Ripple price remains bullish as bulls eye a retest of $1 psychological level. Bitcoin price continues to tag the immediate demand area, weakening it. Despite the sudden bursts in buying pressure, BTC seems to be in consolidation mode. Ethereum price has triggered a bearish outlook while Ripple price shows signs of heading higher. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: Lower lows hinting at a steeper decline Bitcoin price moves with no sense of direction Bitcoin price dips into the $36,398 to $38,895 demand zone for the fourth time without producing any higher highs. This price action is indicative of a consolidation and is likely to breach lower. A daily candlestick close below $36,398 will invalidate the demand zone and knock BTC to retest the weekly support level at $34,752, which is the last line of defense. A breakdown of this barrier will open the path for bears to crash Bitcoin price to $30,000 or lower. Here, market makers will push BTC below $29,100 to collect liquidity resting below the equal lows formed in mid-2021. BTC/USD 1-day chart While things look inauspicious for Bitcoin price, a strong bounce off the said demand zone that retests the weekly supply zone, ranging from $45,550 to $51,860, will provide some relief for bulls. Ethereum price favors bears Ethereum price action from January 22 to March 4 created three lower highs and higher lows, which, when connected via trend lines, resulted in a symmetrical triangle formation. This technical formation forecasts a 26% move obtained by measuring the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point. On March 6, ETH breached below, signaling a bearish breakout, which puts the theoretical target at $1,962. A breakdown of the weekly support level at $2,541 is vital; a breakdown of this barrier will expedite the move lower. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the recent onslaught of bearishness, Ethereum price needs to produce a daily candlestick close above $3,413 to invalidate the bullish thesis. Such a development will also open the possibility of kick-starting a potential uptrend. https://youtu.be/-U0QTf_NwnI Ripple price maintains its bullish momentum Ripple price traverses a bull flag continuation pattern, a breakout from which hints at a continuation of the uptrend. This technical formation contains an impulsive move higher followed by a consolidation in the form of a pennant. The 55% rally between February 3 and 8 formed a bullish flag pole continuation pattern, and the consolidation that ensued in the form of lower highs and higher lows created the pennant. Together, the bullish setup forecasts a 31% ascent for XRP price, obtained by adding the flag pole’s height to the breakout point from the pennant. On March 11, Ripple price broke out from the pennant, signaling the start of the 31% uptrend to $1. So far, the retest seems to be holding up well, so investors can expect the remittance token to continue its journey higher to the $1 psychological level. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close below the immediate demand zone, ranging from $0.689 to $0.705, will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis for Ripple price. In such a case, XRP has the twelve-hour demand zone, extending from $0.546 to $0.633 to support any residual selling pressure. https://youtu.be/rCFQmMHWJZ4

Soaring real estate, rising volatility, surging commodities and slumping stocks - Sound Familiar?This past week marked the 13th anniversary of the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009. The March 6, 2009 stock market low for the S&P 500 marked a staggering overall value loss of 51.9%.The GFC of 2007-09 resulted from excessive risk-taking by global financial institutions, which resulted in the bursting of the housing market bubble. This, in turn, led to a vast collapse of mortgage-back securities resulting in a dramatic worldwide financial reset.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! IS HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF?The following graph shows us that precious metals and energy outperform the stock market as the ‘Bull’ cycle reaches its maturity. The stock market is always the first to lead, the second being the economy, and the third, being the commodity markets. But history has shown that commodity markets can move up substantially as the stock market ‘Bull’ runs out of steam.The current commodities rally in Gold began August 2021, Crude Oil April 2020, and Wheat in January 2022. Interestingly we started seeing capital outflows in the SPY-SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF in early January 2022, and the DRN-Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF starting back in late December 2021.LET’S SEE WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STOCK AND COMMODITY MARKETS IN 2007-2008SPY - SPDR S&P 500 TRUST ETFFrom August 17, 2007 to July 3, 2008: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust depreciated -20.12%The State Street Corporation designed SPY for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Stock Index. According to State Street’s website www.ssga.com, the Benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, comprises selected stocks from five hundred (500) issuers, all of which are listed on national stock exchanges and span over approximately 24 separate industry groups.DBC – INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACING FUND ETFFrom August 17 2007 to July 3, 2008: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund appreciated +96.81%Invesco designed DBC for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in commodity futures. According to Invesco’s website www.invesco.com, the Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on 14 of the most heavily traded and important physical commodities in the world.BE ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY MEETING IS THIS WEEK!In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the most significant contributors to the CPI gain. The consumer price index is the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its policy meeting this week, March 15-16. However, given the recent world events of the Russia – Ukraine war in Europe, the FED may decide to be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points.HOW WILL RISING INTEREST RATES AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET?As interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive. Rising interest rates tend to affect the market immediately, while it may take about 9-12 months for the rest of the economy to see any widespread impact. Higher interest rates are generally negative for stocks, with the exception of the financial sector.WILL RISING INTEREST RATES BURST OUR HOUSING BUBBLE?It is too soon to tell exactly what the impact of rising interest rates will be regarding housing. It is worth noting that in a thriving economy, consumers continue buying. However, in our current economy, where the consumers' monthly payment is not keeping up with the price of gasoline and food, it is more likely to experience a leveling off of residential prices or even the risk of a 2007-2009 repeat of price depreciation.THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTSIZED GAINS IN A BEAR MARKET ARE 7X GREATER THAN A BULL MARKET!The average bull market lasts 2.7 years. From the March low of 2009, the current bull market has established a new record as the longest-running bull market at 12 years and nine months. The average bear market lasts just under ten months, while a few have lasted for several years. It is worth noting that bear markets tend to fall 7x faster than bull markets go up. Bear markets also reflect elevated levels of volatility and investor emotions which contribute significantly to the velocity of the market drop.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe havens.IT'S TIME TO GET PREPARED FOR THE COMING STORM; UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE THESE TYPES OF MARKETS!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Crude oil prices are slipping from their recent highest levels. Where could we see the next support located?Oil prices fell sharply on Monday – extending last week’s decline – driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks.India is considering taking advantage of Russia's discounted crude oil and other commodities offers by settling transactions through the rupee/ruble payment system. Meanwhile, on the eastern side, there is a rush to replace the Russian barrels in the west, but immediate availability is limited.In addition, some fears that OPEC+ countries might not be able to easily increase supply remain, even though the UAE said last week that OPEC+ could double the output to the market (about 800,000 bpd) very quickly. However, this sounds very challenging since OPEC+ countries have already struggled to bring in 400,000 bbd.On the Asian side, a slowdown in demand could have been seen as 17 million residents in Shenzhen, the technological centre of southern China, were locked down on Sunday after reports of epidemic outbreaks linked to the neighbouring territory of Hong Kong, where the Omicron strain seems to have spread. There are growing fears that other cities could follow suit to comply with the country's strict zero-COVID policy, adopted by the government of the People's Republic of China.WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

EURUSD struggles to rebound The US dollar bounces across the board as the Fed may possibly raise interest rates on Wednesday. The pair found support near May 2020’s lows around 1.0800. The RSI’s oversold condition on the daily chart prompted the bears to take some chips off the table, alleviating the pressure. 1.1110 is a fresh resistance and its breach could lift offers to 1.1270. In fact, this could turn sentiment around in the short term. Failing that, a break below 1.0830 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards March 2020’s lows near 1.0650. AUDUSD lacks support The Australian dollar slipped after dovish RBA minutes. The pair continues to pull back from its recent top at 0.7430. A drop below the demand zone at 0.7250 further puts the bulls on the defensive. The former support has turned into a resistance level. 0.7170 at the origin of a previous breakout is key support. An oversold RSI may raise buyers’ interest in this congestion area. A deeper correction could invalidate the recent rebound and send the Aussie to the daily support at 0.7090. GER 40 attempts to rebound The Dax 40 edges higher as Russia and Ukraine hold a fourth round of talks. The index bounced off the demand zone (12500) from the daily chart, a sign that price action could be stabilizing. The supply zone around the psychological level of 14000 sits next to the 20-day moving average, making it an important hurdle. A tentative breakout may have prompted sellers to cover. 14900 would be the target if the rebound gains momentum. On the downside, 13300 is fresh support, and 12720 is the second line of defense.

  The S&P 500 index extended its Friday’s decline yesterday, but it remained within a week-long volatile consolidation. Is this a medium-term bottoming pattern? The broad stock market index lost 0.74% on Monday, Mar. 14, after its Friday’s decline of 1.3%. The market bounced from the short-term resistance level of 4,300 and it extended a volatile consolidation following the early March sell-off from the 4,400 level. Last week on Tuesday it reached the local low of 4,157.87 and then we’ve seen a rebound to the 4,300 level. Yesterday the S&P 500 came back below the 4,200 level again. The market is closer to the Feb. 24 local low of 4,114.65. It was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62 then. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.5% higher following lower than expected Producer Price Index release. The market will be waiting for the important tomorrow’s FOMC Statement release, and we may see some further consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,200. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,100-4,150. The S&P 500 index continues to trade slightly above the recently broken downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Trades Along the Previous Lows Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. Today it is bouncing from the 4,140 level. It’s a support level marked by the previous local low. The support level is also at 4,100. We are still maintaining our long position, as we are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely bounce this morning following better-than-expected producers’ inflation data release. The market may extend its volatile consolidation and we may see more uncertainty, as investors will be waiting for the Wednesday’s FOMC Statement release. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely bounce this morning, but we may see some more short-term uncertainty. We are maintaining our long position (opened on Feb. 22). We are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

GameStop stock is back on the top trending list but still struggling. GME stock is down 43% year to date. GameStop releases earnings on Thursday after the close. GameStop (GME) is back on the top trending lists, though it has not been seen for a while. Some other stocks have taken the limelight, recently some micro-cap oil stocks, but these have gone back to sleep now as the crowd moves on. GameStop was the original though, and it releases earnings after the close on Thursday. This is generating some attention on the usual social media sites and helping the GME stock price too. At the time of writing, GME stock is up 1.4% at $79.05. GameStop Stock News GameStop earnings are out after the close with a conference call afterward. GME is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.84 and revenue of $2.22 billion. This would be a marked improvement on Q3 earnings, which it reported on December 8. Back then EPS was forecast at $-0.52 but came in way behind at $-1.39. Revenue came in ahead of forecasts back then too. GME lost 10% the day after its Q3 earnings. We remain bearish on GME stock though and cannot argue against the current trend. The stock has lost 65% over the last nine months and has been on a one-way spiral. The current environment is punishing high growth stocks, and the recent spike in yields will only add to that. It needs blockbuster earnings on Thursday from GME to change that sentiment. GME still trades on a very high multiple compared to other consumer stocks, and rising inflation will hurt. GameStop is also a high street store. It pays wages, electricity, etc., all of which are rising and will continue to do so. GameStop Stock Forecast GME stock closed below our key support at $86 on Monday. This will likely lead to more selling pressure. That will bring GME quickly down to $70, and we may then see a stabilization period as volume is quite strong around the $70 level. GameStop (GME) stock chart, daily    

  It seems that the stalemate in Ukraine has slowed down gold's bold movements. Will the Fed's decision on interest rates revive them again?  The tragedy continues. As United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said yesterday, “Ukraine is on fire and being decimated before the eyes of the world.” There have already been 1,663 civilian casualties since the Russian invasion began. What is comforting in this situation is that Russian troops have made almost no advance in recent days (although there has been some progress in southern Ukraine). They are attempting to envelop Ukrainian forces in the east of the country as they advance from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to offer staunch resistance across the country. So, it seems that there is a kind of stalemate. The Russians don’t have enough forces to break decisively through the Ukrainian defense, while Ukraine’s army doesn’t have enough troops to launch an effective counteroffensive and get rid of the occupiers. Now, the key question is: in whose favor is time working? On the one hand, Russia is mobilizing fighters from its large country, but also from Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. The invaders continue indiscriminate shelling and air attacks that cause widespread destruction among civilian population as well. On the other hand, each day Russian army suffers heavy losses, while Ukraine is getting new weapons from the West.   Implications for Gold How is gold performing during the war? As the chart below shows, the recent stabilization of the military situation in Ukraine has been negative for the yellow metal. The price of gold slid from its early March peak of $2,039 to $1,954 one week later (and today, the price is further declining). However, please note that gold makes higher highs and higher lows, so the outlook remains rather positive, although corrections are possible. On the other hand, gold’s slide despite the ongoing war and a surge in inflation could be a little disturbing. However, the reason for the decline is simple. It seems that the uncertainty reached its peak last week and has eased since then. As the chart below shows, the CBOE volatility index, also called a fear index, has retreated from its recent peak. The Russian troops have made almost no progress, the most severe response of the West is probably behind us, and the world hasn’t sunk into nuclear war. Meanwhile, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are taking place, offering some hope for a relatively quick end to the war. As I wrote last week, “there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends.” The anticipation of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could also contribute to the slide in gold prices. However, the chart above also shows that credit spreads, another measure of risk perception, have continued to widen in recent days. Other fundamental factors also remain supportive of gold prices. Let’s take, for instance, inflation. As the chart below shows, the annual CPI rate has soared from 7.5% in January to 7.9% in February, the largest move since January 1982. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, surged from 6.0% to 6.4% last month, also the highest reading in forty years. The war in Ukraine can only add to the inflationary pressure. Prices of oil and other commodities have already soared. The supply chains got another blow. The US Congress is expanding its spending again to help Ukraine. Thus, the inflation peak would likely occur later than previously thought. High inflation may become more embedded, which increases the odds of stagflation. All these factors seem to be fundamentally positive for gold prices. There is one “but”. The continuous surge in inflation could prompt monetary hawks to take more decisive actions. Tomorrow, the FOMC will announce its decision on interest rates, and it will probably hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The hawkish Fed could be bearish for gold prices. Having said that, historically, the Fed’s tightening cycle has been beneficial to the yellow metal when accompanied by high inflation. Last time, the price of gold bottomed out around the liftoff. Another issue is that, because of the war in Ukraine, the Fed could adopt a more dovish stance and lift interest rates in a more gradual way, which could be supportive of gold prices. The military situation in Ukraine and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could be crucial for gold’s path in the near future. The hike in interest rates is already priced in, but the fresh dot-plot and Powell’s press conference could bring us some unexpected changes in US monetary policy. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Bitcoin is needed as an alternative   The weakened US-Dollar and the present unexpected climate seems not being fully reflected in bitcoin´s price. Consequently, bitcoin prices could soar in the not too distant future. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, bottom building: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. A phenomenon in times of crisis is that individuals look for absolutes or extremes to resolve difficult circumstances. We instead advocate a more principle-based process of solving problems, an approach of choices. Regarding wealth preservation, this would mean gold and silver alongside bitcoin. The daily chart of the bitcoin/gold-ratio shows the bottom building after a downtrend. Currently, one can purchase a bitcoin for twenty ounces of gold. Nearly half as much as five months ago. Indeed, an opportunity to rotate one’s precious metal holding partially into a cheap bitcoin acquisition.     Bitcoin, monthly chart, in waiting position: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 15th, 2022. War inherently divides nations, and that does not mean limiting only the ones directly in conflict with each other. It is this divide that, in addition, fuels the competition for each nation to be first in their digital currency release. Sanctioned countries have limited access to the US-Dollar. Consequently, they are highly motivated to create an alternate payment method. The monthly chart is not showing this fundamental support for bitcoin. Early signs of a triangle show that we find likely to break to the upside. Slow stochastic indicator reading (A) shows that the last time around at these levels, a strong up move followed. Similar to the yellow CCI turbo line-level reading (B). Before such a move, we witnessed a quick price spike down (C), which would be no surprise. Bitcoin, weekly chart, bitcoin as an alternative is needed: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 15th, 2022. Zooming into the weekly time frame, we can make out the battle between bulls and bears in more detail. Over the last three weeks, prices were rejected above the POC (point of control = high volume node, where our volume profile analysis ranges over the previous fifteen months). As well, price behavior is reflecting the war climate’s uncertainty. At the same time, the bulls have held steady any attempt of the bears trying to push prices below US$37,500. Hence, we should see a substantial move once trading snaps out of this “magnet trading” to the high-volume node. Bitcoin, daily chart, gains and volatility: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. The daily chart of bitcoin above describes how we see the future unfold. We anticipate the price to reach all-time highs within the upcoming month. Unfortunately, not in bitcoins typical swing trading manner. We foresee a choppy, volatile market. Consequently, short and midterm trading will be challenging. Stepping up in time frame is a helpful approach to avoid the noise. Bitcoin is needed as an alternative: Governments will try to keep their monopolies and power. However, we don’t think that the adoption of a digital dollar by the masses will not be that easy. We find this especially true to be in a highly transitory time of rapid changes and many challenges. Typically, multiple propaganda waves through media have bridged such doubt but might have lost some of its trustworthiness. Consequently, bitcoin has a fair chance for mass adoption just as well. It already has a history and carries inherent features of freedom that people might long for more than anticipated.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 15th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

S&P 500 decline was led by tech, and made possible by credit markets‘ plunge. The 4,160s held on a closing basis, and unless the bulls clear this area pretty fast today, this key support would come under pressure once again over the nearest days. Interestingly, the dollar barely moved, but looking at the daily sea of red across commodities, the greenback would follow these to the downside. Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed, regardless of: (…) not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and are likely to regroup next – yes, that doesn‘t rule out a modest upswing that would then fizzle out. Credit Markets HYG woes continue, and credit markets keep raising rates for the Fed. The bears continue having the upper hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t found the short-term bottom, but it pays to remember that they are often trading subdued before the Fed days. This is no exception, and I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious Fed tone. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t keep above $105, but would revert there in spite of the stagflationary environment (already devouring Europe). With more clarity in the various oil benchmarks, black gold would continue rising over the coming weeks. Copper Copper weakness is another short-term oddity, which I am looking for to be reversed in the FOMC‘s wake. Volume had encouragingly risen yesterday, so I‘m looking for a solid close to the week. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are very modestly turning higher, but I‘m not expecting too much of a run next. As stated yesterday, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 got into that precarious position (4,160s) yesterday, but managed to hold above. Given the usual Fed days trading pattern, stocks are likely to bounce a little before the pronouncements are made – only to continue drifting lower in their wake. That‘s valid for the central bank not making the U-turn towards easing again, which is what I‘m expecting to happen in the latter half of this year. Inflation would continue biting, and that means stocks are mired in a giant trading range a la the 1970s. Commodities and precious metals would continue building a base here, only to launch higher in response to (surprise, surprise) stubborn inflation. After all, where else to hide in during stagflations? Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Shiba Inu price action sees price pressure against the technical triangle base at $0.00002140. SHIB price action set to test the low of its existence. As global markets threaten to drop into a recession, investors will flee cryptocurrencies in the coming days. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action is on the cusp of breaking out of a bearish triangle that has dictated price action over the past two months. With a break to the downside, room opens up for an almost 70% drop towards the lowest levels in its existence as investors flee cryptocurrencies overall, following more and more reports that global markets are going into recession. With this dire projection in mind, expect to see further bleeding of SHIB price action as it falls back to $0.00000655. Shiba Inu price action bleeds as investors flee from recession fears Shiba Inu price action is seeing a massive squeeze building from bears trying to break out of the bearish triangle as more and more headwinds combine each day. The situation in Ukraine and new lockdowns in China are spelling supply chain issues again, and banks are starting to use the word recession more often in their reports about the future. This weighs on investor sentiment as cryptocurrencies are put on the backfoot and witness a daily outflow of cash from investors pulling the plug on their positions. SHIB price looks to break below $0.00002140 any moment now, with considerable momentum behind it from the death cross with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) below the 200-day SMA. Next to that, the Relative Strength Index is nowhere near being oversold, opening the door for short sellers to pick up some more gains in the downtrend. Expect to see a sharp drop in the coming days towards $0.00001000, breaking the monthly S1 and S2 support levels along the way, only to find a floor near $0.00000607, which is near the lowest level in SHIB’s. SHIB/USD daily chart Although red flags are popping up all over financial markets, investors could still be working on a turnaround in an attempt to look beyond the current crisis at hand. If central banks can steer economies out of this dire situation, expect investors to start buying into cryptocurrencies to take advantage of lucrative discounts. This could spill into a turnaround and see price action first pop back above $0.00002500, breaking the bearish 55-day SMA and hitting $0.00002787, above the 28.6% Fibonacci level.

USDCHF breaks major resistance The US dollar continues upward as the Fed is set to increase its interest rates by 25bp. The rally sped up after it cleared the daily resistance at 0.9360. The bullish breakout may have ended a 9-month long consolidation from the daily chart perspective. The rising trendline confirms the optimism and acts as an immediate support. Solid momentum could propel the greenback to April 2021’s high at 0.9470. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to jump in. 0.9330 is the closest support should this happen. EURGBP tests key resistance The sterling found support after a drop in Britain’s unemployment rate in January. A break above the daily resistance at 0.8400 has prompted sellers to cover, easing the downward pressure. Sentiment remains downbeat unless buyers push the single currency past 0.8475. In turn, this could pave the way for a reversal in the weeks to come. Otherwise, the bears might double down and drive the euro back into its downtrend. A fall below 0.8360 would force early bulls to liquidate and trigger a sell-off to 0.8280. USOIL drops towards key support WTI crude falls back over a new round of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine. Previously, a bearish RSI divergence indicated a loss of momentum as the price went parabolic. Then a steep fall below 107.00 was a sign of liquidation. Buyers continue to unwind their positions as the price slides back to its pre-war level. The psychological level of 90.00 is an important support on the daily chart. An oversold RSI may attract buying interest in this demand zone. 105.00 is the first resistance before buyers could regain control.

BTC added 1.4% over the past day to $39.3K. Attempts to develop an offensive ran into a selling wall. The most important line of defense in the first cryptocurrency at the 38.0K area is still more confident withstanding all bear attacks. Ethereum added 3.1% to $2.6K in 24 hours. Other leading altcoins range from a 6% decline (Terra) to a 4.5% rise (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 1.4%, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index lost 0.1 percentage points to 42.6%. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 3 points to 24, although it remains in the territory of "extreme fear". The FxPro Analyst Team mentioned that during the Asian session, there was a sharp jump in the rate from $39.2K to $41.7K, followed by an almost equally rapid pullback to the area below $39.0K. Stop orders were triggered in the morning low-liquid market, but it is clear that the selling pressure remains huge. In fact, since February 10, the rises in the Bitcoin rate have become less and less long and end at ever lower levels. The reason for the jump in prices in early trading in Asia was the statements of official Beijing on support for the markets, which caused a rally in the shares of the region. However, Bitcoin frankly ignored the drawdown of Asian stocks in recent days, so it quickly returned to its place, because other factors have become its key drivers in recent days. Meanwhile, Glassnode believes that bitcoin investors may face a final capitulation. This is indicated by the high proportion of "unprofitable" coins among short-term holders. At the same time, the uncertainty associated with geopolitics and the Fed rate weakened the accumulation of BTC by hodlers and caused an increase in sales on their part.

S&P 500 is turning around, and odds are that would be so till the FOMC later today. The pressure on Powell to be really dovish, is on. I‘m looking for a lot of uncerrtainty and flexibility introduction, and much less concrete rate hikes talk that wasn‘t sufficient to crush inflation when the going was relatively good, by the way.As stated yesterday:(…) The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed.Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed.We‘re seeing such a reversal in commodities already, and precious metals have a „habit“ of joining around the press conference. Yesterday‘s performance of miners and copper, provides good enough a hint.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. Interestingly, it was accompanied by oil stocks declining – have we seen THE risk-on turn? This looks to be a temporary reprieve unless the Fed really overdelivers in dovishness.Credit MarketsHYG is catching some bid, and credit markets are somewhat supporting the risk-on turn. Yields though don‘t look to have put in a top just yet, which means the stock market bears would return over the coming days.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are looking very attractive, and the short-term bottom appears at hand – this is the way they often trade before the Fed. I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious and dovish Fed tone.Crude OilCrude oil didn‘t test the 50-day moving average, and I would expect the bulls to step in here – after all, the Fed can‘t print oil, and when they go dovish, the economy just doesn‘t crash immediately...CopperCopper is refusing to decline, and the odd short-term weakness would be reversed – and the same goes for broader commodities, which have been the subject of my recent tweet.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t fully risk-on, but cautiously giving the bulls benefit of the doubt. Not without a pinch of salt, though.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are on the (short-term) run, and definitely need more fuel from the Fed. Significant dovish turn – they would get some, but it wouldn‘t be probably enough to carry risk-on trades through the weekend. The upswing is likely to stall before that, and commodities with precious metals would catch a fresh bid already today. This would be coupled with the dollar not making any kind of upside progress to speak of. The true Fed turn towards easing is though far away still (more than a few months away) – the real asset trades are about patience and tide working in the buyers favor. The yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and more stagflation talk isn‘t too far...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin price action jumped 7% but fell back sharply in European trading.BTC price action looks to be set to jump above $41,756.61 once the US session kicks in.Expect to see a further continuation of this price jump throughout the week as long as positive signals come from the ongoing talks in Russia.Bitcoin (BTC) price action is performing a countercyclical move this morning as Asian bulls storm out of the gate on positive-speak from the Chinese government. From now on into the European session, gains are still present but have faded slightly. Expect to see a subsequent round of wins coming in during the US session and going further into this week as long as positive signals are communicated independently from both sides in Ukraine and Russia peace talks.Bitcoin price sees bulls swimming against the tideBitcoin price action seems to have awakened many investors who fell asleep staring at their television screen for the past three weeks on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As they pulled out their money and went long cash, cryptocurrencies dried up a bit and were left to the mercy of bears. Today a few bears will be licking their wounds as bulls have gone in for a push higher as more positive signals come from both Ukraine and Russia on talks, and markets are getting used to the war headlines as everything looks to be priced in. BTC price action technically got rejected to the upside at $41,756.61, the base of a bearish triangle that formed a few weeks ago. Expect this fade in early trading to provide a window of opportunity for European and American bulls to join the rally and ramp up the price above $41,756.61, where a close above will be key this evening. If trading can start on Thursday with an opening price above $41,756.61, expect to see another leg higher by tomorrow evening, near $44,088.73 and even $45,261.84 by Friday.BTC/USD daily chartThe risk could be that the current fade, after the rejection at $41,756.61, could topple into a deeper loss if bears push the price below the opening price. This would trigger panic amongst bulls that got in and will have them remember the same scenario that happened exactly one week ago on Wednesday with a false breakout and a full paring back, and even eking out further losses the day after. Expect bulls to exit instantly once BTC price action prints red numbers, and this to spiral into a setback for BTC price towards $38,703.32 or even $36,709.19.

  Crude oil continues to decline due to lowered demand, and the petrodollar seems threatened, losing interest. What is the best strategy to take now?  Oil prices kept falling this week, driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and a potential slowdown in the Giant Panda’s (China) economic growth due to epidemic lockdowns in some regions where a surge of Omicron was observed. As I mentioned in my previous article, India considers getting Russian crude oil supplies and other commodities at a reduced price by settling transactions through a rupee/rouble payment system. Meanwhile, we keep getting rumors – notably reported by The Wall Street Journal – that Saudi Arabia and China are also currently discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports directly in yuan. The Chinese are actively seeking to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and this latest development suggests that the petrodollar is now under threat. US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) The recent correction in crude oil, happening just seven days after reaching its 14-year highs, might show some signs that the conflict in Ukraine will slow down consumption. On the other hand, if Iranian and Venezuelan barrels flooded the market, we could see crude oil, petroleum products, and distillates turning into new bear markets. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) That’s all folks for today – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XAUUSD stabilizes Gold struggles as the Fed maps out aggressive tightening. The precious metal has given up all its gains from the previous parabolic rise, which suggests a lack of commitment to support the rally. The price is testing the origin of the bullish breakout at 1907 which coincides with the 30-day moving average. An oversold RSI attracted some buying interest. 1961 is the hurdle ahead before a rebound could materialize. Further down, 1880 is key support on the daily chart and its breach could reverse the course in the weeks to come. NZDUSD attempts rebound The New Zealand dollar found support from a rebound in commodity prices. The pair saw solid bids in the demand zone around 0.6725 and right over the 30-day moving average. A bullish RSI divergence showed a deceleration in the pullback, which would have caught buyers’ attention in this congestion area. A close above 0.6800 has prompted short-term sellers to cover and leave the door open for a rebound. 0.6870 is the last major resistance and a bullish breakout could propel the kiwi past the recent peak at 0.6920. CADJPY breaks key resistance The Canadian dollar shot higher after February’s CPI beat expectations. A break above last October’s high at 93.00 could be an ongoing signal to end a 5-month long consolidation. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area may temporarily hold the bulls back. As sentiment turns overwhelmingly upbeat, buyers may be eager to jump in at a discounted price. The supply-turned-demand zone near 91.60 is an important level to safeguard the breakout. The psychological level of 94.00 could see resistance.

AMC stock gains on Tuesday as equities and growth stocks rally. More gains are likely on Wednesday for AMC shares as peace hopes rise for Ukraine. AMC Entertainment also saw increased attention from its investment in Hycroft Mining. AMC shares are up 8% to $15.65 as better prospects for peace in Ukraine seem to be lifting up the entire market. The Nasdaq has risen an optimistic 2.7% about one hour into Wednesday's session. Further positivity is in motion with the start of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee two-day meeting that is expected to usher in a 25 basis point rise in the fed funds rate. The rise in interest rates should slow this year's hike in inflation. This price action is certainly exciting for AMC apes, who have witnessed AMC stock drop to the low $13s earlier this week. AMC Entertainment did benefit in Tuesday's afternoon session from its acquisition of Hycroft Mining, but it seems the stock is gaining more interest on Wednesday for this buy. Now its acquisition target, HYMC, has seen its shares go in the opposite direction on Wednesday. HYMC stock is trading down 9% at $1.37 at the time of writing. AMC stock closed higher on Tuesday as investors took comfort from the continued collapse in oil prices and hoped for some form of peace in Ukraine. It was oil that was the big driver for equity markets, and growth stock, in particular, bounced hard as this sector had seen the bigger losses since the year began. It is hard to see guess whether this movie can be sustained long term though as yields have once again moved up. This should stall growth stocks. A peace deal would see further gains for all sectors, but then these may be capped if yields keep rising. The Fed decision later on Wednesday will give us more clarity on this. AMC Stock News The big news yesterday though for AMC apes was the investment in Hycroft Mining by AMC. This was right out of left field and remains a puzzling one to say the least. Hycroft Mining is a gold and silver miner with one mine in Nevada. The company has not turned a profit since 2013 and last November said it may need to raise capital to meet future financial obligations. The company also laid off over half of its workforce at the mine last November. This is a pretty high-risk investment and perhaps AMC and AMC apes are used to that. It was only a small outlet as CEO adam Aron alluded to. Nevertheless, the Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock price soared as retail investors piled into the name. By the opening of the regular session on Tuesday, HYMC stock was trading nearly 100% higher, but it closed only 9% higher at $1.52 having traded up to $2.97. The reason for the dramatic turnaround was probably a bit of reality set into investors once they had a look at Hycroft Mining and its financial condition. The main reason was a Bloomberg report saying that Hycroft Mining could do a $500 million share sale by as early as next Tuesday. We understand the sale is ongoing and being led by B.Riley Securities. AMC Stock Forecast We were quite negative on this deal on Tuesday and remain so. At least it is not a big investment for AMC, but it still reads poorly. This will not endear AMC stock to further credibility in our view. CNBC carried out a report yesterday about the surge in price and volume trading in HYMC stock before the AMC announcement: "Small mining firm with troubled history saw big spikes in stock price, trading volume ahead of AMC deal." Tuesday's move took AMC back up to our resistance level at $14.54, which was a key breakdown level. Below this and AMC remains bearish. Above $14.54 is neutral. We remain bearish on AMC with a target price of $8.95. AMC stock chart, daily Prior Update: AMC stock opened higher on Wednesday as the stock market remains on edge over the potential for some form of a peace deal in Ukraine. Oil prices falling sharply has also helped investor sentiment. AMC is currently trading at $14.77 for a gain of exactly 2% after 5 minutes of the regular session on Tuesday. Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock is trading 4% lower at the same stage on Wednesday. Later we get the Fed interest rate decision which may hamper more progress from growth stocks but for now, it is full steam ahead. AMC is back among the top trending stocks on social media sites and interest seems high. $14.54 remains a key level for AMC to hold above if it wants to have put a bottom formation in place. Otherwise, it will return to the bearish trend and look to target $8.95 in our view.

THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX HAS DROPPED MORE THAN 40% FROM ITS PEAK IN JUST 2 ½ MONTHS! China Stocks: This morning bottom pickers around the globe are snatching up what they believe to be “bargain basement priced stocks” as the Hang Seng Index gained 9.1% during today’s March 16, 2022 trading session. It was the best day for the HSI since the 2008 financial crisis as the Chinese government pledged to support markets. Tensions are running high as Chinese nickel giant Tsingshan Holding Group, the world’s biggest producer of nickel used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries was sitting on $8 billion in trading losses. According to the Wall Street Journal on March 9, 2022 “The London Metal Exchange suspended the nickel market early last Tuesday, the first time it had paused trading in a metal contract since the collapse of an international tin cartel in 1985. The decision followed a near doubling in prices over a few hours.” ETFs CAN BE USED SPECIFICALLY FOR SEASONS AND DIRECTION! According to Statista www.statista.com on January 11, 2022, the assets managed by ETFs globally amounted to approximately 7.74 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020. With more than 8,000 ETFs to choose from, you can find just about any flavor you need or are looking for. A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle that consists of four sub-cycles or phases that are also known as Kondratieff Seasons. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratieff 1892-1938 (also spelled “Kondratiev”), a communist Russia-era economist who noticed agricultural commodities and metals experienced long-term cycles. The following graph illustrates both the inflation cycle as well as the best investments for each season. The Kondratieff Seasons act as a general guide and each investment has their own specific bull or bear market cycle. ETFs CAN OFFER YOU PROTECTION AND AGILITY IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET!  The following ETFs are not a recommendation to buy or sell but simply an illustration to emphasize the utilization of selecting an ETF for capital protection or potential appreciation in either a rising ‘BULL’ or falling ‘BEAR’ market. YINN – DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA STOCKS BULL 3X SHARES ETF From February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2022 the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF ‘YINN’ lost -90.78%. Target Index: The FTSE China 50 Index (TXINOUNU) consists of the 50 largest and most liquid public Chinese companies currently trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as determined by the FTSE/Russell. Constituents in the Index are weighted based on total market value so that companies with larger total market values will generally have a greater weight in the Index. Index constituents are screened for liquidity, and weightings are capped to limit the concentration of any one stock in the Index. However, one cannot directly invest in an index. According to Direxion’s website www.direxion.com, Leveraged and Inverse ETFs pursue leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives that do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying index over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. YANG – DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA STOCKS BEAR 3X SHARES ETF From February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2022, The Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3x Shares ETF gained +418.38%. The rates of return shown for the YINN and YANG ETFs are not precise in that they are an estimation as displayed on a chart utilizing the charts measurement tool to emphasize my talking point. Sign up for my free Trading Newsletter to navigate potential major market opportunities! ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE WAS RASIED A QUARTER POINT! In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was still the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the biggest contributors to the CPI gain. The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points. However, investors are speculating that due to the Russia – Ukraine war, the FED may be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points. WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS with US and CHINA STOCKS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe-havens. UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE OUR VOLATILE MARKETS! GET READY, GET SET, GO -I invite you to learn more about how my three ETF Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

How can we protect our portfolio against losses when stocks are in a correction?  Or even if stocks are not currently in a correction?   There are many schools of thought on that. One way is to close positions and wait for more bullish times on the sidelines.  But that may not be the best choice for any number of reasons.Perhaps you are bullish on a stock position long-term and don’t want to sell it.  Maybe you already have a nice gain on your shares but are worried about a further decline.  Or perhaps there’s a dividend that you would like to continue to collect.  Simple Portfolio “Insurance”One relatively straightforward way to protect open stock positions is to buy Put protection.  Puts are option contracts that have an inverse correlation to price.   If the shares go down in price, the value of the Put will increase, thereby providing some offset to losses in the underlying stock.   The tradeoff is that Puts come at an out-of-pocket cost, and they expire.  There’s a cost to carry to have that “insurance” in place.Taking it a Step Further with a “Collar”A Collar can be an effective strategy to ensure against significant losses.  A common way to offset the cost of purchasing protective Puts is to implement a Collar strategy using options.Calls are option contracts that increase in value when the underlying shares go up in value.  We can sell Calls against our long stock and collect a premium.   That’s a simple Covered Call strategy.  But in itself, we get no downside protection on our shares other than the amount of the premium collected for selling the Calls.We can take that a step further by using the premium collected from selling the Calls to purchase protective Puts.  That’s known as a Collar.   And depending on the option strike prices and duration, we may be able to do that for a net credit and put a little extra profit in our pocket.Putting on a CollarSince options contracts control 100 shares per contract, the number of shares you want to protect determines the number of contracts.  Say you have 1,000 shares.  In that case, the Collar position would consist of 10 short Calls and 10 long Puts.  Here’s a P/L graph of a Collar on AAPL.  In this example, the stock is at $160.  A $170 Call is sold for $1.25, and a $140 Put is purchased at $1.00.  A Net credit of $0.25 is collected when the position is put on. Both options are 30 days to expiration (DTE). The TradeoffsWhile it’s tempting to think of the Collar as a way to get “free” Put protection, there are some tradeoffs.   By selling Calls, we are limiting our upside.  In the example above, we could have a $10 gain to the upside.  We’d also get to keep any net premiums collected, another $0.25 per share.  But because we’re obligated to provide shares at $170, we have capped our profit potential.The Collar also only gives us partial protection to the downside.  Options also have a limited life and expire. What Happens at Expiration?If the share price is above our Call strike price at expiration, we’re likely to have our shares “called away” – meaning we’ll be obligated to sell our shares at the strike price, $170 in this example.  But we could also extend the duration by rolling that Call out for additional credit.  As long as there are more than a few cents of time value in our short Call, we’re less likely to have it exercised even if it is in-the-money (ITM).   If our counterparty wanted to close their position, as long as there’s time value left in the option, they would be better off to sell their long Call rather than exercise it against us.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! If the share price is between our Call and Put strike prices at expiration, those options expire worthlessly, and we’re left with our stock as before.If the share price has dropped below our Put strike, we would want to either sell the Put or exercise it.  We could “put” the stock to our counterparty at $140 per share.  Alternately, we could sell the Put and continue to hold onto our shares.The best case is for the options to expire with the share price just below the Call strike price.  In that case, both the Puts and the Calls expire worthlessly, and we get to keep our shares.  We are then free to sell shares at a profit or keep them and apply another Collar further out in time.SummaryIf you own shares that you don’t want to sell, consider putting on a Collar using options to give you some downside protection.  A Collar entails selling calls against your shares and using the premium collected to purchase puts for downside protection.  The tradeoff is your upside is limited.  But you get to hold onto your shares to continue to collect dividends (if any), all while having long Puts in place for downside protection.Read On To Learn More About Options TradingEvery day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.   If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com.Enjoy your day!

  The Fed will want to keep inflation under control, and that could have miserable consequences for gold and miners. Will we see a repeat from 2008?  The question one of my subscribers asked me was about the rise in mining stocks and gold and how it was connected to what was happening in bond yields. Precisely, while short-term and medium-term yields moved higher, very long-term yields (the 30-year yields) dropped, implying that the Fed will need to lower the rates again, indicating a stagflationary environment in the future. First of all, I agree that stagflation is likely in the cards, and I think that gold will perform similarly to how it did during the previous prolonged stagflation – in the 1970s. In other words, I think that gold will move much higher in the long run. However, the market might have moved ahead of itself by rallying yesterday. After all, the Fed will still want to keep inflation under control (reminder: it has become very political!), and it will want commodity prices to slide in response to the foregoing. This means that the Fed will still likely make gold, silver, and mining stocks move lower in the near term. In particular, silver and mining stocks are likely to decline along with commodities and stocks, just like what happened in 2008. Speaking of commodities, let’s take a look at what’s happening in copper. Copper invalidated another attempt to move above its 2011 high. This is a very strong technical sign that copper (one of the most popular commodities) is heading lower in the medium term. Yes, it might be difficult to visualize this kind of move given the recent powerful upswing, but please note that it’s in perfect tune with the previous patterns. The interest rates are going up, just like they did before the 2008 slide. What did copper do before the 2008 slide? It failed to break above the previous (2006) high, and it was the failure of the second attempt to break higher that triggered the powerful decline. What happened then? Gold declined, but silver and mining stocks truly plunged. The GDXJ was not trading at the time, so we’ll have to use a different proxy to see what this part of the mining stock sector did. The Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Index includes multiple junior mining stocks. It also includes other companies, but juniors are a large part of it, and they truly plunged in 2008. In fact, they plunged in a major way after breaking below their medium-term support lines and after an initial corrective upswing. Guess what – this index is after a major medium-term breakdown and a short-term corrective upswing. It’s likely ready to fall – and to fall hard. So, what’s likely to happen? We’re about to see a huge slide, even if we don’t see it within the next few days. In fact, the outlook for the next few days is rather unclear, as different groups of investors can interpret yesterday’s developments differently. However, once the dust settles, the precious metals sector is likely to go down significantly. Gold is up in today’s pre-market trading, but please note that back in 2020, after the initial post-top slide, gold corrected even more significantly, and it wasn’t really bullish. This time gold doesn’t have to rally to about $2,000 before declining once again, as this time the rally was based on war, and when we consider previous war-based rallies (U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, U.S. invasion of Iraq, Russia’s invasion of Crimea), we know that when the fear-and-uncertainty-based top was in, then the decline proceeded without bigger corrections. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 reversed the pre-FOMC decline, and turned up. The upswing didn‘t fizzle out after the conference, quite to the contrary, the credit markets deepened their risk-on posture. I guess stocks are buying the story of 7 rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in 2022 a bit too enthusiastically. Not gonna happen, next quarter‘s GDP data would probably be already negative. Yet Powell says that the risk of recession into next year isn‘t elevated – given the projected tightening, I beg to differ. But of course, Powell is right – it‘s only that we won‘t see all those promised hikes, let alone balance sheet reduction starting in spring. Inflation would retreat a little towards year‘s end (on account of recessionary undercurrents and modest tightening), only to surprise once again in 2023 on the upside. I already wrote so weeks ago – before the East European events. There wouldn‘t enough time to celebrate the notion of vanquishing inflation. For now, stocks can continue the bullish turn – just as commodities and precious metals aren‘t asking permission. The FOMC is over, and real assets can rise, including the badly beaten crude oil. Made a good decision to keep adding to the commodities positions at much lower prices (or turning bullish stocks around the press conference). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. It was driven by tech, participating more enthusiastically than value. The conditions are in place for the rally to continue, and it‘s likely that Friday would be a better day than Thursday for the bulls. Credit Markets HYG is catching quite some bid, and credit markets have turned decidedly risk-on. It also looks like a sigh of relief over no 50bp hike – the stock market rally got its hesitant ally. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing can return – and this correction wasn‘t anyway sold heavily into. Needless to say how overdone it was if you look at the miners. $1950s would be reconquered easily. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom looks to be in, and $110s are waiting. Obviously it would take more than a couple of days to return there, but we‘re on the way. Copper Copper is rebounding, and even if other base metals aren‘t yet following too enthusiastically, $4.70 isn‘t far away. Coupled with precious metals returning to more reasonable values, the red metal would continue trending higher. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are leaning risk-on, and the bulls will close this weekend on a good note. Today‘s price action is merely a consolidation in a short-term upswing. Summary S&P 500 bulls got enough fuel from the Fed, and the run can continue – albeit at a slower pace. Importantly, credit markets aren‘t standing in the short-term way, but I think they would carve out a bearish divergence when this rally starts topping out. I‘m not looking for fresh ATHs, the headwinds are too stiff, but as stated within today‘s key analysis, the tech participation is a very encouraging sign for the short-term. The dollar indeed didn‘t make any kind of upside progress to speak of yesterday – and as I have also written at length in yesterday‘s report, the pre-FOMC trading pattern in real assets can be reversed now. Long live precious metals, oil and copper gains! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

GBPUSD attempts to rebound The British pound stalled after the BOE failed to secure a unanimous vote for higher rates. A bullish RSI divergence suggests exhaustion in the sell-off, and combined with the indicator’s oversold condition on the daily chart, may attract buying interest. A tentative break above 1.3190 led some sellers to take profit. The bulls will need to push above the 1.3250 next to the 20-day moving average to get a foothold. On the downside, the psychological level of 1.3000 is a critical floor to keep the current rebound valid. USDJPY takes a breather The Japanese yen struggles as the BOJ pledges to stick with stimulus. Sentiment turned extremely bullish after the pair rallied above December 2016’s high at 118.60. The RSI went overbought on both hourly and daily charts, and the overextension could refrain buyers from chasing bids. Trend followers may be waiting to buy at pullbacks. 117.70 is the first level to gauge buying interest and 116.80 is the second line of support. A rebound above 119.00 would extend gains beyond the psychological level of 120.00. SPX 500 tests resistance The S&P 500 bounced higher after Russia averted a bond default. Price action has stabilized above last June’s lows around 4140 where a triple bottom indicates a strong interest in keeping the index afloat. A previous attempt above 4350 forced sellers to cover but hit resistance at 4420. A bullish close above this key level on the daily chart could trigger a runaway rally. 4590 would be the next target when sentiment turns around. Otherwise, a lack of conviction from the buy-side would send the index to test 4250.

The Indian Central Bank came out this morning with firm rejection against adopting cryptocurrencies in the country. Dogecoin price action undergoes firm rejection against a double technical barrier. DOGE set to tank by 8% as bears see opportunity fit to pair back gains from Wednesday yet again. Dogecoin (DOGE) price action saw bulls being hit by ice-cold water this morning as two headlines made the sky drop on their heads. These were the Kremlin coming out saying that talks are nowhere near as positive as markets are frontrunning, and the Indian Central Bank (RBI) giving a firm rejection to the adoption of cryptocurrencies. The RBI branded cryptocurrencies as a tool that will wreck the currency system, monetary authority and government's ability to control the economy. This is a significant blow and setback for cryptocurrencies that saw bulls coming up yesterday for a catch of fresh air but are now again submerged underwater with negative prints today. Dogecoin price gains short-lived Dogecoin price action is not currently in a sweet spot as in just 5 minutes, two separate comments unrelated to each other trashed bulls’ game plan to target $0.1357 next week. Instead, DOGE price action fell back to its opening price and took a step back as bulls reassessed the situation – due to some unforeseen tail risks that caused headwinds overpowering the tailwinds that emerged the day before. Expect to possibly see DOGE price action tumble again to the downside, in a similar scenario to last week. DOGE price action got a firm rejection from negative headlines at $0.1197 with the green ascending trend line and that intermediary top-line proving too big for bulls to take on. Instead, price action collapsed back to the entry-level and looked heavy and dangling, as if poised to drop at any moment to the downside. A possible downside target is set at $0.1137 and $0.1100 with the last one making a triple bottom – although there is also the risk of a break even further to the downside if more tail-risk materialises. DOGE/USD daily chart Once the US session takes over, it could well be that investors look beyond these very short-term headlines, considering them as partial hiccups before moving on. That would mean a pickup in buying interest which could lead to a punch through $0.1197 to the upside. This would open the door towards $0.1242 intraday and possibly again on track for $0.1357.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, known for his bullish predictions, has unveiled a new one that sees BTC hit $500,000 in 2025. Should we believe in that? No sharp movements According to the Santiment team, Bitcoin whale activity has fallen to its lowest level in a year in recent days. Therefore, one should not expect sharp movements in the market soon. In confirmation of this, Bitcoin is down only 0.4% over the past 24 hours to $40.7K. Ethereum has added 1.5% over the same time, other leading altcoins from the top ten are changing from -2.0% (Terra) to 5% (Avalanche). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 0.3% over the day, to $1.83 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index decreased by 0.4% to 42.4% due to the better dynamics of altcoins. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed lost 2 points to 25 in a day and again found itself in a state of "extreme fear". In searching of the bottom Despite the outstripping dynamics of altcoins, a sequence of lower and lower local highs continues to form in Bitcoin. In early February, the upside lost momentum as it moved above $45.5K. In the first days of March, the bears already dominated on the way to $45K, on the 8th already near $42.5K, and in the last two days they are trying to form a downward reversal at $41.5K. At the same time, the bulls manage to form a strong support near $38K. The FxPro Analyst Team emphasized that in terms of technical analysis, BTCUSD remains close to its 50-day moving average, clearly indicating the absence of any trend now. However, a consolidation in a descending triangle is usually a respite before the next decline. We will see the implementation of this scenario if BTCUSD fixes under $38K. An alternative scenario and a new upside momentum should be expected if the bulls manage to push the price above the previous highs of $42.5K, or close the day/week above $42K. News to consider Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, known for his bullish predictions, has unveiled a new one that sees BTC hit $500,000 in 2025. The State Russian Duma urged to speed up the launch of the cryptoruble in order to better bypass Western sanctions. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation recommended that banks strengthen control over the operations of clients related to cryptocurrencies.

  Inflation continues to rise but may soon reach its peak. After that, its fate will be sealed: a gradual decline. Does the same await gold?If you like inviting people over, you’ve probably figured out that some guests just don’t want to leave, even when you’re showing subtle signs of fatigue. They don’t seem to care and keep telling you the same not-so-funny jokes. Even in the hall, they talk lively and tell stories for long minutes because they remembered something very important. Inflation is like that kind of guest – still sitting in your living room, even after you turned off the music and went to wash the dishes, yawning loudly. Indeed, high inflation simply does not want to leave. Actually, it’s gaining momentum. As the chart below shows, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 6.0% over the past 12 months, speeding up from 5.5% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the overall CPI annual rate accelerated from 7.1% in December to 7.5% in January. It’s been the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1982. However, at the time, Paul Volcker raised interest rates to double digits and inflation was easing. Today, inflation continues to rise, but the Fed is only starting its tightening cycle. The Fed’s strategy to deal with inflation is presented in the meme below. What is important here is that the recent surge in inflation is broad-based, with virtually all index components showing increases over the past 12 months. The share of items with price rises of over 2% increased from less than 60% before the pandemic to just under 90% in January 2022. As the chart below shows, the index for shelter is constantly rising and – given the recent spike in “asking rents” – is likely to continue its upward move for some time, adding to the overall CPI. What’s more, the Producer Price Index is still red-hot, which suggests that more inflation is in the pipeline, as companies will likely pass on the increased costs to consumers. So, will inflation peak anytime soon or will it become embedded? There are voices that – given the huge monetary expansion conducted in response to the epidemic – high inflation will be with us for the next two or three years, especially when inflationary expectations have risen noticeably. I totally agree that high inflation won’t go away this year. Please just take a look at the chart below, which shows that the pandemic brought huge jumps in the ratio of broad money to GDP. This ratio has increased by 23%, from Q1 2020 to Q4 2021, while the CPI has risen only 7.7% in the same period. It suggests that the CPI has room for a further increase. What’s more, the pace of growth in money supply is still far above the pre-pandemic level, as the chart below shows. To curb inflation, the Fed would have to more decisively turn off the tap with liquidity and hike the federal funds rate more aggressively. However, as shown in the chart above, money supply growth peaked in February 2021. Thus, after a certain lag, the inflation rate should also reach a certain height. It usually takes about a year or a year and a half for any excess money to show up as inflation, so the peak could arrive within a few months, especially since some of the supply disruptions should start to ease in the near future. What does this intrusive inflation imply for the precious metals market? Well, the elevated inflationary pressure should be supportive of gold prices. However, I’m afraid that when disinflation starts, the yellow metal could suffer. The decline in inflation rates implies weaker demand for gold as an inflation hedge and also higher real interest rates. The key question is, of course, what exactly will be the path of inflation. Will it normalize quickly or gradually, or even stay at a high plateau after reaching a peak? I don’t expect a sharp disinflation, so gold may not enter a 1980-like bear market. Another question of the hour is whether inflation will turn into stagflation. So far, the economy is growing, so there is no stagnation. However, growth is likely to slow down, and I wouldn’t be surprised by seeing some recessionary trends in 2023-2024. Inflation should still be elevated then, creating a perfect environment for the yellow metal. Hence, the inflationary genie is out of the bottle and it could be difficult to push it back, even if inflation peaks in the near future. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

S&P 500 extended gains, and the risk appetite in bonds carried over into value rising faster than tech. Given the TLT downswing though, it‘s all but rainbows and unicorns ahead today. Not only that quad witching would bring high volume and chop, VIX itself doesn‘t look to slide smoothly below 25 today. Friday‘s ride would be thus rocky, and affected by momentum stalling in both tech and value. Real assets though can and will enjoy the deserved return into the spotlight. With much of the preceding downswing being based on deescalation hopes (that aren‘t materializing, still), the unfolding upswing in copper, oil and precious metals (no, they aren‘t to be spooked by the tough Fed tightening talk) would happen at a more measured pace than had been the case recently. Pay attention to the biting inflation, surrounding blame games hinting at no genuine respite – read through the rich captions of today‘s chart analyses, and think about reliable stores of real value. And of course, enjoy the open profits. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 looks likely to consolidate as the 4,400 – 4,450 zone would be tough to overcome, and such a position relative to both the moving averages shown, has historically stopped quite a few steep recoveries off very negative sentiment readings. Credit Markets HYG is likely to slow down here, as in really stall and face headwinds. The run had been respectable, and much of the easy gains happened already yesterday. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing did indeed return – and the miners performance doesn‘t hint at a swift return of the bears, to put it mildly. The path to $1950s is open. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom was indeed in, and the price can keep recovering towards $110s and beyond. No, the economy isn‘t crashing yet, monetary policy isn‘t forcing that outcome, and the drawing of petroleum reserves is a telltale sign of upside price pressures mounting. It‘ll be an interesting April, mark my words. Copper Copper is duly rebounding, and not at all overheated. The move is also in line with other base metals. My yesterday‘s target of $4.70 has already been reached – I‘m looking for a measured pace of gains to continue. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking a small break, highlighting the perils of today. The boat won‘t be rocked too much. Summary S&P 500 bulls made the easy gains already yesterday, and today‘s session is going to be volatile, even treacherous in establishing a clear and lasting direction (i.e. choppy), and the headwinds would be out there in the plain open. These would come from bonds not continuing in the risk-on turn convincingly rather than commodities and metals surging head over heels. Both tech and value would feel the heat as VIX would show signs of waking up (to some degree). Today‘s session won‘t change the big picture dynamics of late, and I invite you to read more in-depth commentary within the individual market sections of today‘s full analysis. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  St. Patrick’s Day is historically considered among the best trading days. Apparently, judging by the results, it may have brought some luck to natural gas. If you are interested in looking at the stats, an article by Market Watch summed them up. The second target hit – BOOM! Yesterday, on St. Patrick's Day, the opportunity to bank the extra profits from my recent Nat-Gas trade projections (provided on March 2) finally arrived. That trade plan has provided traders with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile. To get some more explanatory details on understanding the different trading ways this fly map (trading plan) could offer, I invite you to read my previous article (from March 11). To quickly sum it up, the various trade opportunities that could be played were as follows (with the following captures taken on March 11): The first possibility is swing trading, with the trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart) The second option consisted of scalping the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders). I named this method “riding the tails” (or the shadows). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) The third way is position trading – a more passive trading style (and usually more rewarding). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) The chart below shows a good overall view of NYMEX Natural Gas hitting our final target, $4.860: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) As you can see, the market has provided us with multiple entries into the same support zone (highlighted by the yellow band) – even after hitting the first target, you may have noticed that I maintained the entry conditions in place – after the suggestion to drag the stop up just below the new swing low ($4.450). The market, still in a bull run, got very close to that point on March 15 by making a new swing low at $4.459 (just about 10 ticks above it). Before that, it firmly rebounded once more (allowing a new/additional entry) and then extended its gains further away while consecutively hitting target 1 ($4.745) again. After that, it finally hit target 2 ($4.860)! That’s all folks for today. It is time to succesfully close this trade. Have a great weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Shiba Inu price action falls back to Monday’s opening levels, making it a week of hardly any gains or losses. SHIB price action looks a bit bearish as another broader support test is set to kick in later today. SHIB price is still set to tank to $0.00001500 as bearish momentum continues. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price action retook a step back and pared almost all the gains from Wednesday’s rally. Investors are swinging back into bearish mode as tail risks emerge and are put at the top of the agenda going into the weekend. Conflicting rumours and contrary remarks from what is going on in Ukraine are keeping investors puzzled and refraining them from continuing to open risk-on bets. Shiba Inu price sees puzzled investors turning their back on crypto Shiba Inu price action is set to erase its gains from earlier this week. SHIB price rose after the news that peace talks were making good progress. Yet this all looked to be thrown in the bin overnight as several headlines came out about Russiabeing not at all optimistic, and the US even putting the threat of nuclear weapons back on the table, as it sees Russia possibly trying to squeeze out a peace agreement that meets all of its demands but none of Ukraine’s. Shiba Ina and other cryptocurrencies saw bulls repeating the same mistake as last week when they got squeezed out by the weekend. SHIB price action is again dropping back to the baseline of a longer term triangle with the green trend line as its base. Multiple tests up until now have been held, but with the meeting between Biden and Xi this evening, it looks clear that the US wants to get a clear answer from China as to whether it is with the US against Russia, or with Russia – offering no middle ground. The tail risk from this meeting going into the weekend could trigger a break at $0.00002111 and see a drop towards $0.00001708, the low of January, which could well overshoot towards $0.00001500. SHIB/USD daily chart Of course, a truce or ceasefire would help turn the current sentiment around. If that were to happen expect a big pop in price action, capped at a max 13% gain, to where the red descending trend line and side of the triangle intersect with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) . Yet at the moment this seems an impossible hurdle to break through seeing the weakness of bulls currently at hand.

Fed raised interest rate by 25bps so did Bank of England. Data shows that these events haven’t hit major Forex pairs so hard so let’s verify the theory. EUR/USD – A ca. 1.2% Gain The chart shows the week began without significant fluctuations until the Fed decision on March 16th. Immediately after the announcement of the key monetary policy indicator a huge declined stopped the strengthening Euro. The pair even neared the 2% gain level, but during the week has declined again slowly ending it near +1.2%. GBP/USD – Two announcements correlation The week hadn’t began too positively for British pound, but the following days had put GBP back on track to a ca. 1% gain after significant declines shortly after Fed and BoE decisions on accordingly Wednesday and Thursday. EUR/GBP – A ca. 1% Increased Corrected Naturally Fed’s announcement didn’t affect the single currency and British bound heavily, but the Bank of England’s fuelled EUR/GBP almost 1% jump which had been gradually corrected in the following days leaving the pair almost unchanged compared to the 14th March. USD/PLN – exotic pair with interesting outlook There’s no doubt PLN has strengthened throughout the week even if Fed announced the raise of interest rate. The stronger outlook of PLN is surely caused by the previous week’s tightening of monetary policy. EUR/PLN – PLN gained ca. 1.5% Global factors makes the pais with PLN the most interesting ones as another shows a significant loss of Euro To Polish zloty. The following week might bring next tempting fluctuations so let’s keep an eye on this pair.

BTC/USD Bitcoin has added a lot over that week. A 10% gain has remained despite the fact Fed raised interest rate. Gold Gold plunged after the Fed decision, but didn’t crash ending the week with a not so big decline. S&P 500 SPX rally was caused, among others, by Chinese stocks which are said to be back in the game. UK 100 (FTSE 100) The British had its ups and downs this week, but all in all gained ca. 4% at the end of the day (week!)

Starting at a low of US$1,780 on January 28th, gold went up rapidly US$290 within less than six weeks, reaching a short-term top at US$2,070. Since that high on March 8th, however, gold prices fell back even faster. In total, gold plunged a whooping US$175 to a low of US$1,895 in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting. A quick bounce took prices back to around US$1,950, but the weekly close at around US$1,920 came in lower.This volatile roller coaster ride is truly not for the faint of heart. Nevertheless, gold has done well this year, and, despite a looming multi-months correction, it might now be in a setup from which another attack towards US$2,000 could start in the short-term.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.On the weekly chart, gold prices have been rushing higher with great momentum. For five consecutive weeks, the bulls were able to bend the upper Bollinger band (US$1,963) upwards. However, the final green candle closed far outside the Bollinger bands and looks like a weekly reversal. Consequently, if gold has now dipped into a multi-month correction, a retracement back to the neckline of the broken triangle respectively the inverse head & shoulder pattern in the range of US$1,820 to US$1,850 would be quite typical and to be expected. In this range, the classic 61.8% retracement of the entire wave up (from the low at US$1,678 on August 9th, 2021, to the most recent blow off top at US$2,070) sits at US$1,827.79. The weekly stochastic oscillator has not yet rolled over, but weekly momentum is overbought and vulnerable.In total, the weekly chart shows a big reversal and therefore no longer supports the bullish case. However, it could still take some more time before a potential correction gains momentum.  Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.While the weekly chart may just be at the beginning of a multi-month correction, the overbought setup on the daily chart has already been largely cleared up by the recent steep pullback. Despite Friday’s rather weak closing, the odds are not bad that gold might very soon be turning up again. However, gold bulls need to take out the pivot resistance around US$1,960 to unlock higher price targets in the context of a recovery. The potential Fibonacci retracements are waiting at US$1,962, US$2,003 and US$2,028. Hence, gold could bounce back to approx. US$2,000, which is a round number and therefore a psychological resistance.On the other hand, if gold fails to move back above Thursday’s high at US$1,950, weakness will increase immediately and significantly. In that case, bulls can only hope that the quickly rising lower Bollinger Band (US$1,861) would catch and limit a deeper sell-off. But since the stochastic oscillator has reached its oversold zone, bears might have a hard time pushing gold significantly below US$1,900.Overall, the daily chart is slightly oversold, and gold might start a bounce soon. Conclusion: Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000After a strong rally and a steep pullback, the gold market is likely in the process of reordering. While the weekly timeframe points to a correction, the oversold daily chart points to an immediate bounce. Given these contradictory signals, investors and especially traders are well advised to exercise patience and caution in the coming days, weeks, and months. If gold has entered a corrective cycle, it could easily take until the early to mid-summer before a sustainable new up-trend might emerge.Alternative super bullish scenarioAlternatively, and this of course is still a possible scenario, the breakout from the large “cup and handle” pattern is just getting started. In this very bullish case, gold is in the process of breaking out above US$2,100 to finally complete the very large “cup and handle” pattern, which has been developing for 11 years! Obviously, the sky would then be the limit.To summarize, gold is getting really bullish back above US$2,030. On the other hand, below $US1,895 the bears would be in control. In between those two numbers, the odds favor a bounce towards US$1,960 and maybe USD$2,000.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|March 19th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bearish, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Gold sideways, precious metals, Reyna Gold|0 Commentshttps://www.midastouch-consulting.com/gold-chartbook-19032022-potential-recovery-to-approx-us2000About the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

After a week full of central bank’s announcement it’s time to shift down and observe ‘boring’ economic indicators. Data: courtesy of Investing.com Monday, Tuesday - Japan And South Africa Bank of Japan released its monetary policy statement the previous week. The following Monday is a day free for both Japanese and South Africa’s people. Wednesday - Great Britain, Germany And The USA On Wednesday British CPI is released (prev. 5.5%). One and a half an hour later German Manufacturing PMI goes public. After midday (12:30 p.m.) Annual Budget Release is published and followed by the releases of US New Home Sales. At 2:30 p.m. many investors might follow the release of Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday – Switzerland, Germany And The USA At 8:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q1) is released. What is not so usual – the current interest rate in Switzerland amounts to… -0.75%. At the same time German Manufacturing PMI is released. Four hours later important news comes from the USA where Core Durable Goods Orders are presented (0.7%). Friday – Great Britain, Germany And The USA Friday’s morning might be important for British people as Retail Sales indicator is published. The previously announced value was 1.9%. At 9 a.m. we head to Germany for the last time the following week, because German Ifo Business Climate is released (prev. 98.9). The last important event of the week 21/03-25/03 is the US Pending Home Sales (MoM) released at 2 p.m. Source: Investing.com Economic Calendar Time: GMT

German Index doesn’t shock investors with significant fluctuations despite the fact many countries interact with persistent conflict between Russia and Ukraine. DAX opened only a bit lower than it closed on Friday, March 17th and seems to end the day without any major move. As before we highlight below three companies which have gained the most during today’s session. BMW Bavarian automotive company is today’s leader, as until now it has gained over 2%. BAYN - Bayer Well-known brand associated with medicaments until now has gained over 2% DBK – Deutsche Bank One of the most recongizable banks of the world has gained ca. 2% until now Charts: courtesy of TradingView.com Source: TradingView.com

  The S&P 500 extended its short-term uptrend on Friday after breaking above the early March local high. Will we see some profit-taking action soon? The broad stock market index gained 1.17% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.2%. Stocks extended their rally and since last Monday’s low of around 4,162, the index has already gained over 300 points. The market accelerated higher after the Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate hike. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, however, investors were jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.1% lower. We may see a consolidation or some profit-taking action following the mentioned 300-point rebound from the last Monday’s low. The nearest important resistance level is at around 4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,415, marked by the previous local high. The S&P 500 index trades just below its early February consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Broke Above the Previous High Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Friday it broke above the early March local highs of around 4,400. It’s the nearest important support level right now. We may see a correction following the recent run-up. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. We are maintaining our profitable long position from the 4,340 level, as we are still expecting a bullish price action in the near-term (our premium Stock Trading Alert includes details of our trading position along with the stop-loss and profit target levels) (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion Stocks extended their uptrend once again on Friday, as the S&P 500 index broke above the previous local high. It rallied over 300 points from its last Monday’s local low, so we may see a consolidation or some profit-taking action soon. This morning the broad stock market’s gauge is expected to open 0.1% lower. The war In Ukraine is still a negative factor for the markets. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index rallied over 300 points from the last Monday’s local low; we may see a correction at some point. We are maintaining our profitable long position. We are still expecting an advance from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Sanctions keep affecting the supply diversification. It’s not sure how will the following days shape so civilians, investors and big companies are following, we may say, indefinite fluctuations of Brent and WTI. The price has increased by ca. 20% since the beginning of the war on February 24th. As the chart below shows the price was interacting with the news about crude oil inventories, testimonies of countries’ leaders and all the communication. Crude Oil Price Chart – 24/02-21/03 Today crude oil has gained ca. X% opening higher as the war goes on and there’s no significant signal that it’s coming to an end. Ukrainians don’t surrender in Mariupol and, according to Bloomberg, Kremlin says that consequences of sanctions will seriously impact Europe. Crude Oil Price Chart 21/03/22 – [UPDATE: 14:05 GMT] It’s not sure what can we expect from the following days. A thing we can be sure of is that we should follow the Crude Oil Inventories release on Wednesday. Follow us on Twitter to check the markets’ reaction and don’t miss a thing! Source: Investing.com, Bloomberg.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

S&P 500 did really well through quad witching, and the same goes for credit markets. 4-day streak of non-stop gains – very fast ones. Short squeeze characteristics in the short run, makes me think this rally fizzles out before the month ends – 4,600 would hold. We‘re likely to make a higher low next, and that would be followed by 4-6 weeks of rally continuation before the bears come back with real force again. July would present a great buying opportunity in this wild year of a giant trading range. As I wrote yesterday: (…) The paper asset made it through quad witching in style - both stocks and bonds. The risk-on sentiment however didn't sink commodities or precious metals. Wednesday's FOMC brought worries over the Fed sinking real economy growth but Powell's conference calmed down fears through allegedly no recession risks this year, ascribing everything to geopolitics. Very convenient, but the grain of truth is that the Fed wouldn't indeed jeopardize GDP growth this year - that's the context of how to read the allegedly 7 rate hikes and balance sheet shrinking this year still. Not gonna happen as I stated on Thursday already. Such are my short- and medium-term thoughts on stocks. Copper remains best positioned to continue rising with relatively little volatility while crude oil isn‘t yet settled (its good times would continue regardless of the weak volume rally of last two days, which is making me a little worried). Precious metals are still basing, and would continue moving higher best on the Fed underperforming in its hawkish pronouncements. No way they‘re hiking 7 times this year and shrinking balance sheet at the same time as I wrote on Thursday – Treasury yields say they‘ll take on inflation more in 2023. 2022 is a mere warm-up. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is now past the 4,400 – 4,450 zone, and hasn‘t yet consolidated. This week would definitely though not be as bullish as the one just gone by – the bulls will be challenged a little. Credit Markets HYG eked out more gains, but the air is slowly becoming thinner. As the sentiment turns more bullish through no deep decline over the coming few days, that‘s when junk bonds would start wavering. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals aren‘t turning down for good here – I think they‘re deciphering the Fed story of hiking slower than intended, which in effect gives inflation a new lease on life. Not that it was wavering, though. More upside in gold and silver to come. Crude Oil Crude oil is rising again, but look for a measured upswing that‘s not free from headwinds. While I think we would climb above $110 still, I‘m sounding a more cautious note given the decreasing volume – I would like to see more conviction next. Copper Copper is behaving, and would continue rising reliably alongside other commodities. It‘s also the best play considering downside protection at the moment. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin isn‘t recovering Sunday‘s setback – but the Ethereum upswing bodes well for risk taking today, even that doesn‘t concern cryptos all too much. Summary S&P 500 has a bit more to run before running into headwinds, which would happen still this week. Credit markets are a tad too optimistic, and rising yields would leave a mark especially on tech. Value, energy and materials are likely to do much better. Crude oil is bound to be volatile over the coming weeks, but still rising and spiking – not yet settled. Copper and precious metals present better appreciation opportunities when looking at their upcoming volatility. Within today‘s key analysis, I‘ve covered the path of stocks, so do have a good look at the opening part. Finally, cryptos likewise paint the picture of risk-on trades not being over just yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Shiba Inu price is hovering above the $0.0000223 support level, eyeing a 40% upswing. A quick liquidity run below $0.0000202 is likely before triggering the move to $0.0000283. A daily candlestick close below $0.0000158 will invalidate the bullish thesis for SHIB. Shiba Inu price action seems to be repeating itself after a recent breakout from its downtrend. The rebound is pausing and might go for a liquidity run below a vital support level before a full-blown rally kicks off. Shiba Inu price prepares for a new leg-up Shiba Inu price crashed 77% from its all-time high before setting up a swing low around $0.0000202. The downswing, however, was breached on February 3, as price undertook a u-turn and made a 75% ascent. The new uptrend failed to sustain, however, leading to another downswing. After a brief period of consolidation, SHIB breached through its mini downtrend and is currently establishing a support level around $0.0000223 before triggering an explosive rally higher. However, investors can expect Shiba Inu price to slide lower first in search of liquidity below the $0.0000202 barrier. Such a move will signal the start of an uptrend and interested investors can enter long at $0.0000202. The resulting momentum will likely catapult SHIB to retest the immediate hurdle at $0.0000283. This move would constitute a 40% gain and is where market participants can book profits. SHIB/USDT 1-day chart Even if Shiba Inu price breaches the $0.0000202 barrier, the bulls will have another chance to regroup and attempt a run-up into the nine-hour demand zone, ranging from $0.0000158 to $0.0000193. A daily candlestick close below $0.0000193, however, will produce a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis. In this scenario, Shiba Inu price could crash 15% and retest the $0.0000135 support level.

Having added more than 8.2% to Tuesday's lows last week through Friday, S&P500 futures have surpassed the 50-day moving average and are testing the 200-day average by the start of US trading. We mentioned last week that the "death cross" should not be taken as a sell signal this time because it took place after a comparatively long decline. It was a repeat of 2020 when the cross appeared after the market bottomed. The recovery rally of the last week is undergoing an important test. If the S&P500 manages to get above 4500 today or tomorrow, firmly entrenched above the 200-day moving average (currently at 4480), we can confidently talk about breaking the correction. In that case, there is a potential for a quick rally towards 4600 already this week, 4800 over the next 2-3 months, and up to 5000 by the end of 2022. Looking only at the news headlines, the military action in Europe and the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed are not conducive to buyers' optimism. But, paradoxically, we are now in a situation where pessimism has reached or is close to its peak. Managers surveyed by Bank of America note the maximum pessimism since April 2020, which is near historical turning points. The only exception to the last 25 years was in 2007-2008 when pessimistic expectations persisted for an extended period due to banking sector problems. The Fear & Greed Index continues to improve from 16 (extreme fear) a week ago to 40 (fear) now. It has turned solidly around from the extreme lows, but equities are still an impressive distance from the highs at the beginning of the year, which leaves considerable room for growth from current levels. A strong sell-off in US equities from current levels and a consolidation below 4400 on the S&P500 could be a strong bearish signal, indicating an inability for the market to develop the offensive, which risks putting it back into a rapid decline situation.

The most popular British index begins the week in a delicate manner. The amplitude is not that high and we’re to wait a bit longer for more exciting fluctuations. Antofagasta, BP and Anglo American all companies linked with commodities and they all rise. These stock prices fluctuate mostly as the global situation seems to be unsure with the tensions between Russia and Ukraine keep going on. BP and Shell gains as crude oil price increase so expect next uptrends coming, as the 'black gold' keeps rising. UK 100 Chart [UPDATE: 17:30 GMT] BP – British Petroleum Gained Ca. 4%  AAF – Antofagasta Added Over 8% AAL – Anglo American PLC Increased By Over 7% Data/Source: Investing.com, TradingView.com

A subscriber asked us recently where he should be putting his money and how to limit losses in his retirement portfolio. He expressed frustration as he watched Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway stock going up, but at the same time, the stock indices going lower and many of his previously favored stocks experiencing substantial losses! This conversation naturally piqued our curiosity. We decided to look into this for him and, at the same time, share our findings with our subscribers.Berkshire Hathaway stock traded at an all-time record high price of $520,654.46. At a stock price of $512,991, Berkshire’s market capitalization is $756.23 billion. Last year, Berkshire generated a record $27.46 billion of operating profit, including gains at Geico car insurance, the BNSF railroad, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy.BERKSHIRE vs. S&P 500 BENCHMARKWarren Buffett, age 91 (known as the ‘Sage of Omaha’), is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. He is considered by many to be the most successful stock investor in the world and, according to Forbes Real-Time Billionaire List, has a personal net worth that exceeds $120 billion USD.Very few can compete with his long-term track record. Since 1965, Berkshire has provided +20% average annual returns, almost double the +10.2% average annual returns for the S&P 500 Stock Index benchmark. The 2022 year-to-date comparison is:BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway +14.53%; SPY SPDR ETF -6.36%; FB Facebook -35.64%However, according to Buffett’s own humility, he has endured years of underperformance and has had his share of bad stock picks. When Buffet was asked about drawdowns at one of Berkshire’s annual meetings, he stated, “Unless you can watch your stock holdings decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.” According to www.finance.yahoo.com, the five biggest percentage losses for Berkshire have been:1974 -48.7%, 1990 -23.1%, 1999 -19.9%, 2008 -31.8%, and 2015 -12.5%.WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE ‘BUFFETT INDICATOR’?The Buffett Indicator, as dubbed by Berkshire shareholders, is the ratio of the total United States stock market valuations (the Wilshire 5000 stock index) divided by the annual U.S. GDP. The indicator peaked at the beginning of 2022 and remains near all-time highs even though many stocks are well off their record levels.This historical chart of the Buffett Indicator was created by www.currentmarketvaluation.com. Doing quantitative analysis, we learn that the indicator is more than 1.6 standard deviations above the historical average, which suggests the market is over-valued and, in time, will fall back to its historical average.Berkshire Hathaway At Fibonacci Resistance!On March 18, 2022, Berkshire hit an all-time high price of $520,654. The Fibonacci resistance level of 2.618 or 261.8% of the March 23 low of $239,440 is $520,196. As shown on the daily chart, Berkshire also met resistance at the 2.618 standard deviations of the quarterly Bollinger Band.THE BENCHMARK: S&P 500 SPY ETFThe S&P 500 Index is the industry standard benchmark when comparing investment returns. It’s worth noting that as Berkshire reached the Fibonacci 2.618 resistance, the SPY found support at the Fibonacci 1.618 of the SPY March 23, 2020 low.Central banks have begun to tighten credit by raising interest rates for the first time since 2018, attempting to bring fast-rising energy, food, and housing prices under control. More time is needed to determine the full impact that rising global interest rates will have on current markets.However, on the chart below, we can see that the SPY put in a major top around 480 and, for the time being, has found support around 420 (the Fibonacci 1.618 level). Considering the increased market volatility and that we are now entering a cycle of higher interest rates, it would not surprise us to see the SPY eventually break below 420.It is worth noting that when a market makes a top after a prolonged bull-market, we usually experience distribution. Distribution with volatility results from large institutions beginning to liquidate their holdings while smaller retail investors are trying to buy stocks on sale. In other words, the retail investors are buying the dip hoping to get a bargain, while the institutional investors are selling the rally hoping to be liquidated and/or go short. It is a battle that retail investors will eventually lose!It is important to understand we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article sheds some light on some interesting analyses that you should be aware of. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades with subscribers to our newsletter, and surprisingly, we have just entered five new trades.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.GET READY, GET SET, GO - We invite you to learn more about how my three ETF Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Since the start of the year, the performance of emerging market currencies mirrors what we saw in 2021, but with more polarisation. The Brazilian real has been the growth leader against the dollar since the start of the year, gaining around 13%. It is followed by the South African rand and Colombian peso, gaining just over 7%. Among the hardest hit is the Russian Rouble (-33%), but also the Egyptian Pound (-14%) and the Turkish Lira (-10%). In our view, this polarisation only promises to increase in the coming months.Commodity-exporting countries have benefited amid a global jump in energy and agricultural commodity prices. Brazil gets a chance to seriously boost its oil sales to the US amid a supply embargo from Russia. Though net oil exporters, the states must buy significant amounts of heavy crude to run their refineries. Until 2019, oil from Venezuela was used for the right blend, subsequently replaced by Russian crude. Now it is being replaced by oil from Brazil, which promises a significant increase in exports and supports the exchange rate of the Brazilian real.The South African rand is in demand, receiving dividends from last year's monetary tightening and a surge in metal prices since the start of the year. As most global markets look for alternatives to the Russian metal, the ZAR is enjoying demand from speculators in anticipation of increased exports from South Africa for political reasons.We may well be seeing a global reversal in the attitude towards commodity exporters' currencies, as even in the event of a military settlement, there is no expectation of a quick recovery of previous economic ties.At the other end of the spectrum are countries' currencies that depend on imports of oil and agricultural products. Egypt buys most of its wheat consumption from Russia and Ukraine, and rising prices severely damage the balance of payments. Egypt's central bank has responded by tightening monetary policy to suppress inflation. But such steps tend to hurt economic growth. Turkey imported almost all its gas from Russia and Azerbaijan and bought its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Price jumps and supply-chain disruptions will be costly for the economy and cause increased pressure on the Turkish lira.In addition to the prospect of inflated import volumes, Turkey and Egypt face a severe drop in revenues from the tourism industry, as Russia and Ukraine have provided a significant flow of tourists.

S&P 500 wavered but is bound to get its act together in the medium term. Powell‘s statements shouldn‘t have stunned the bulls, but they did – the mere reiteration of the tightening plans coupled with remarks on the need to stamp out aggressive inflation before it‘s too late (anchored inflation expectations, anyone? I talked that in the run up to the Sep 2021 P&G price hikes and how the competition would be following in a nod to high input costs, with heating job market on top of the commodities pressure pinching back then already), sent stocks and bonds down.Add the recession fears that were assuaged during the Wednesday‘s conference, and you get the S&P 500 bulls having to dust off after Monday‘s setback. Given how early we‘re in the tightening cycle, and that the real economy isn‘t yet breaking down no matter what‘s in the pipeline geopolitically as regards various consequences to commodities, goods, services and money flows, the stock market bulls are still likely to take on the 4,600 as discussed already.Only this time, the upswing would be accompanied by a more measured and balanced commodities upswing, joined in by precious metals. Great profits ahead and already in the making.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is consolidating above 4,400, and the relative strength in value as opposed to tech, is boding well – the bulls are pushing their luck a bit too hard as a further TLT decline would pressure growth stocks.Credit MarketsHYG is getting under pressure again, but its decline would be uneven in the short run – as in I‘m looking for quite some back and forth action. First, higher in taking on yesterday‘s selling.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t turning lower in earnest – the miners‘ leadership bodes well for further gains, and is actually a very good performance given the hawkish Fed „surprise“ (surprise that wasn‘t, shouldn‘t have been).Crude OilCrude oil strength returning is a very good omen for commodities bulls broadly, and the rising volume hints at return of bullish spirits. The upswing is far from over – look how far black gold got on relatively little conviction, and where oil stocks trade at the moment.CopperCopper is acting strongly, and the downswing didn‘t entice the bears much. The path of least resistance remains higher, and the red metal isn‘t yet outperforming the CRB Index. Great pick for portfolio gains with as little volatility as can be.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin went on to recover the weekend setback – Ethereum upswing presaged that. They‘re both a little stalling now, but entering today‘s regular session on a constructive note. I‘m looking for modest gains extension.SummaryS&P 500 is bound to recover from yesterday‘s intraday setback – the animal spirits and positive seasonality are there to overcome the brief realization that the Fed talks seriously about tightening and entrenched inflation. While not even the implied readiness to hike by 50bp here and there won‘t cut it and send inflation to the woodshed, let alone inflation expectations, the recession fears would be the next powerful ally of stock market bears. For now though, we‘re muddling through generally higher (I‘m still looking for a tradable consolidation of last week‘s sharp gains), and will do so over the coming several weeks. The real profits are to be had in commodities and precious metals, as I had been saying quite often lately… Enjoy!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The last raise of Fed’s interest rate seems to be tip of the iceberg as hawkish rhetoric is vivid in following Jerome Powell’s testimonies. Inflation is still here and according to Investing.com Goldman Sachs predicts that Fed’s next moves are 50bps raises in the two following months. As we’re waiting for tomorrows midday (GMT) which is the time Fed Chairman speaks, let’s review how have most traded, dollar-based pairs traded over last 24 hours. EUR/USD Morning declines appear to be only temporary, USD has weakened in the afternoon and slightly decreased as the pair gained 0.1% until now. GBP/USD The pair has gained ca. 0.6% and can be threated as a ‘trailer’ of the dollar strengthening later this week. USD/JPY After today’s news about Russian-Japanese end of negotiations considering official truce of World War II (!) and ongoing hawkish Fed’s rhetoric Japanese yen has weakened and the pair has gained ca. 1.1% USD/PLN Exotic pair shows an interesting performance once again after an increase of over 0.4% USDPLN has decreased by over 0.5% as the pair seems to be affected by many factors as the country lies close to Ukraine and had its interest rate increased two weeks ago. Source/Data: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

In the new series we focus on some interesting, meme and other… non-typical coins. Today we highlight fluctuations of popular SHIB, DOGE and tasty PancakeSwap. PancakeSwap (CAKE) Price has risen by 5% today what’s probably not so surprising as it seems to be very activating project with loads of announcements on Twitter. Dogecoin (DOGE) The project which is, let’s say, “supported” by Elon Musk keeps arousing interest. Price has risen by ca. 2% until now. The price has reached but declined suddenly… Shiba Inu (SHIB) Another iteration of Doge-inspired coin has declined recently as well, ranging between 2-3% gain at the time I’m writing. Source/Data: TradingView.com, coinmarketcap.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

All the markets’ old boys like crude, gold and silver are still vulnerable for the mix of the factors shaping the prices. Naturally, stocks seems to be more dynamic as the recent events show. China stocks have been fluctuating recently as, among others, COVID-19 and negotiations with the USA were topping the headlines. Global sanctions affect WTI/BRENT price – the supplies from Russia are about to be limited in Europe so the price is to rise again. Going back to gold - Hawkish rhetoric of Fed keeps precious metals investors uncertain. There’s no doubt safe-haven must be watched all the time to decide if it’s the best moment to sell or buy. Crude Oil – WTI Luckily crude oil price has decreased by 3% over last 24 hours and it’s probably ‘waiting’ for the next significant geopolitical updates. According to Reuters, some countries of the EU are still hesitating to stop importing crude oil from Russia. Gold – XAUUSD Yes, price of gold has decreased by almost 1%, but… it could be worse as Powell doesn’t hesitate to present hawkish comments. Silver – XAGUSD Silver price chart shows a significant decline which has helped it to decrease by 1.7% over last day. As wrote above, Powell testimony will let us visualise a more detailed outlook. Source/Data: Reuters, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

Bitcoin´s time to go   Trying to pick tops and bottoms is honorable and a desirable goal. Nevertheless, there needs to be other insurances and principles in place. If an ideal spot passes or the market doesn’t provide for a low-risk entry or enough liquidity for an exit, one still needs alternate tools to participate in the market. Our quad exit strategy allows for position building and market participation that consistently extracts monies from the markets. Bitcoin, daily chart, keep calm and keep trading: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Precision trading gets even more difficult in wartimes, when frequent and conflicting news events jolt prices alternating up and down. The daily chart above shows these jolts over the last three weeks of wartime. We can identify three low-risk long trade entry opportunities (green up arrows on double bottom price scenarios) and one short trading one (red downward arrow at a double top price formation). Our quad exit strategy takes on each of these trades a partial initial profit to mitigate risk, which allows the remainder position size to be the market’s money at risk only.     Bitcoin, weekly chart, pushing up: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Zooming out to larger time frames is another way to avoid noise and see a trading scenario more clearly, and, as such, find “go times” with more accuracy. This weekly chart illustrates that entries and exits are rather entry zones (red and green boxes) versus a precise price level. The trader’s goal is to exploit within such a zone a low-risk entry spot on a lower time frame to get positioned. Regarding bitcoin, we find overall price behavior to be up sloping over the last twelve months, a bullish notion. And we find a high likelihood for the momentary entry zone (green box to the right of the chart). In other words, we are right now in a price zone where its Bitcoin´s time to go. Bitcoin, monthly chart, March closing price: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Suppose we further remove ourselves from the noise by electing a higher timeframe. In that case, we find a pat situation on the monthly chart, pat not for a more significant edge for prices to go higher up but for timing on when to enter the markets. Our statistics show that it will be essential on what price level the month of March will be closing. With a close above current levels (white line), we will enter a bullish buy zone. Yet, if prices decline from here in the last nine days of this month, the probabilities of an immediate price advance rapidly decline. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin´s time to go: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. An additional benefit quiet charting provides in turbulent times is to think outside the box. While all noise points toward the most heated issues, finding a trading opportunity elsewhere might be best. In our previous chart book release, we exploited a great go time for bitcoin. Last week, we provided entry points (green up arrows) for rotating one’s gold into bitcoin. Using our quad exit strategy, the trader who wanted to not expose his money to a volatile fiat currency trading world could profit near ten percent on his first fifty percent of position size. We are now placing the stop for the remainder position size to breakeven entry levels. Bitcoin´s time to go: In war, the first casualty is the truth. Under stress, our minds insist on reason, clarity, precise calls for action. Unfortunately, even the best-informed brightest minds can’t find reliable data in times of war since the distortion field of media around the world is at a level where lies and propaganda outweigh facts and truth.  Luckily, a trader can, in these times, rely more heavily on charts. Charts always encompass the sum of opinion. Charts are consistently working as a reliable source to trade from.  The psychological aspect is hugely beneficial since a consistent bombardment of news and everybody’s opinion can get quickly exhausting.  Reduce news data consumption at a time when calm and levelheadedness is the most powerful tool for wealth creation and preservation, and the “go time” will reveal itself nearly effortlessly.     Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

  The Fed's hawkish alerts seem like a voice in the wilderness to gold investors. However, a carefree attitude can backfire on them – in just a few months. An epic battle is unfolding across the financial markets as the Fed warns investors about its looming rate hike cycle and the latter ignores the ramifications. However, with perpetually higher asset prices only exacerbating the Fed's inflationary conundrum, a profound shift in sentiment will likely occur over the next few months. To explain, I highlighted in recent days how the Fed has turned the hawkish dial up to 100. Moreover, I wrote on Mar. 22 that it's remarkable how much the PMs' domestic fundamental outlooks have deteriorated in recent weeks. Yet, prices remain elevated, investors remain sanguine, and the bullish bands continue to play.  However, with inflation still rising and the Fed done playing games, the next few months should elicit plenty of fireworks. For example, with another deputy sounding the hawkish alarm, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Mar. 22: "Inflation has persisted for long enough that people are starting to wonder how long it will persist. I'm already focused on letting make sure this doesn't get embedded and we see those longer-term inflation expectations drift up." As a result, Daly wants to ensure that the "main risk" to the U.S. economy doesn't end up causing a recession. Please see below: Source: Reuters Likewise, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated his position on Mar. 22, telling Bloomberg that “faster is better,” and that “the 1994 tightening cycle or removal of accommodation cycle is probably the best analogy here.” Please see below: Source: Bloomberg   Falling on Deaf Ears To that point, while investors seem to think that the Fed can vastly restrict monetary policy without disrupting a healthy U.S. economy, a major surprise could be on the horizon. For example, the futures market has now priced in nearly 10 rate hikes by the Fed in 2022. As a result, should we expect the hawkish developments to unfold without a hitch? Please see below: To explain, the light blue, dark blue, and pink lines above track the number of rate hikes expected by the Fed, BoE, and ECB. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light blue line has risen sharply over the last several days and months. For your reference, if you focus your attention on the material underperformance of the pink line, you can see why I’ve been so bearish on the EUR/USD for so long. Also noteworthy, please have a look at the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield minus the German 2-Year Bond yield spread. If you analyze the rapid rise on the right side of the chart below, you can see how much short-term U.S. yields have outperformed their European counterparts in 2021/2022. Source: Bloomberg/ Lisa Abramowicz More importantly, though, with Fed officials’ recent rhetoric encouraging more hawkish re-pricing instead of talking down expectations (like the ECB), they want investors to slow their roll. However, investors are now fighting the Fed, and the epic battle will likely lead to profound disappointment over the medium term. Case in point: when Fed officials dial up the hawkish rhetoric, their “messaging” is supposed to shift investors’ expectations. As such, the threat of raising interest rates is often as impactful as actually doing it. However, when investors don’t listen, the Fed has to turn the hawkish dial up even more. If history is any indication, a calamity will eventually unfold.  Please see below: To explain, the blue line above tracks the U.S. federal funds rate, while the various circles and notations above track the global crises that erupted during the Fed’s rate hike cycles. As a result, standard tightening periods often result in immense volatility.  However, with investors refusing to let asset prices fall, they’re forcing the Fed to accelerate its rate hikes to achieve its desired outcome (calm inflation). As such, the next several months could be a rate hike cycle on steroids.  To that point, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dropping the hawkish hammer on Mar. 21, I noted his response to a question about inflation calming in the second half of 2022. I wrote on Mar. 22: "That story has already fallen apart. To the extent it continues to fall apart, my colleagues and I may well reach the conclusion we'll need to move more quickly and, if so, we'll do so." To that point, Powell said that “there’s excess demand" and that "the economy is very strong and is well-positioned to handle tighter monetary policy." As a result, while investors seem to think that Powell’s bluffing, enlightenment will likely materialize over the next few months. Please see below: Source: Reuters Furthermore, with Goldman Sachs economists noting the shift in tone from “steadily” in January to “expeditiously” on Mar. 21, they also upped their hawkish expectations. They wrote: “We are now forecasting 50bp hikes at both the May and June meetings (vs. 25bp at each meeting previously). The level of the funds rate would still be low at 0.75-1% after a 50bp hike in May, and if the FOMC is open to moving in larger steps, then we think it would see a second 50bp hike in June as appropriate under our forecasted inflation path.” “After the two 50bp moves, we expect the FOMC to move back to 25bp rate hikes at the four remaining meetings in the back half of 2022, and to then further slow the pace next year by delivering three quarterly hikes in 2023Q1-Q3. We have left our forecast of the terminal rate unchanged at 3-3.25%, as shown in Exhibit 1.” Please see below: In addition, this doesn’t account for the Fed’s willingness to sell assets on its balance sheet. For context, Powell said on Mar. 16 that quantitative tightening (QT) should occur sometime in the summer and that shrinking the balance sheet “might be the equivalent of another rate increase.” As a result, investors’ lack of preparedness for what should unfold over the next few months has been something to behold. However, the reality check will likely elicit a major shift in sentiment.  In contrast, the bond market heard Powell’s message loud and clear, and with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield hitting another 2022 high of ~2.38% on Mar. 22, the entire U.S. yield curve is paying attention. Please see below: Source: Investing.com Finally, the Richmond Fed released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Mar. 22. With the headline index increasing from 1 in February to 13 in March, the report cited “increases in all three of the component indexes – shipments, volume of new orders, and number of employees.” Moreover, the prices received index increased month-over-month (MoM) in March (the red box below), while future six-month expectations for prices paid and received also increased (the blue box below). As a result, inflation trends are not moving in the Fed’s desired direction. Please see below: Source: Richmond Fed Likewise, the Richmond Fed also released its Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity on Mar. 22, nd while the headline index decreased from 13 in February to -3 in March, current and future six-month inflationary pressures/expectations rose MoM. Source: Richmond Fed The bottom line? While the Fed is screaming at the financial markets to tone it down to help calm inflation, investors aren't listening. With higher prices resulting in more hawkish rhetoric and policy, the Fed should keep amplifying its message until investors finally take note. If not, inflation will continue its ascent until demand destruction unfolds and the U.S. slips into a recession. As such, if investors assume that several rate hikes will commence over the next several months with little or no volatility in between, they're likely in for a major surprise. In conclusion, the PMs declined on Mar. 22, as the sentiment seesaw continued. However, as I noted, it's remarkable how much the PMs' domestic fundamental outlooks have deteriorated in recent weeks. Thus, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict keeps them uplifted, for now, the Fed's inflation problem is nowhere near an acceptable level. As a result, when investors finally realize that a much tougher macroeconomic environment confronts them over the next few months, the shift in sentiment will likely culminate in sharp drawdowns. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Crypto.com token set a stable base and rallied 12% to clear a crucial hurdle at $0.41. If CRO manages to stay above this barrier, a retest of $0.45 seems likely. A breakdown of $0.41 could trigger a correction to $0.37 or lower. Crypto.com token has set up pools of liquidity at the range low and high of recent run-up. This technical outlook creates ambiguity with directional bias, but the recent announcement indicates a bullish move is likely. The company’s Twitter account posted that it will be a sponsor of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. A blog post further elaborated that Crypto.com will be the “exclusive cryptocurrency trading company” sponsoring the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup. This move from the establishment is not unseen in the crypto industry with FTX partnering with major Major Baseball League, Mercedes, eSports teams and so on. The sponsorship will allow Crypto.com to garner branding exposure from within and outside the tournament’s stadiums. Crypto.com token at make-or-break point Crypto.com token fell nearly 20% between March 2 and 7, setting up a range that extends from $0.45 to $0.37. This downswing set a boundary and CRO bulls respected it and created a double bottom at $0.37, triggering then a recovery rally. So far, the Crypto.com token has managed to flip the 50% retracement level at $0.41 and is at the time of writing hovering above it. A continuation of this bullish momentum could see CRO heading back to the range high and perhaps higher. Interested investors can wait for a retest of the $0.41 barrier to enter a long position and book profits at $0.45. In some cases, the run-up could push the Crypto.com token to $0.47 especially if the buying pressure increases. CRO/USDT 4-hour chart Although things are looking favorable to bulls, a breakdown of the $0.41 support level will trigger a move in the opposite direction. If Crypto.com token produces a four-hour candlestick close below $0.37, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. This development could see Crypto.com token slide lower to retest the stable support level at $0.36.

Yesterday we were following forex pairs with dollars. Everybody follows dollar index (DXY) to check market’s reaction to Fed rhetoric which is verbalised by Jerome Powell (Chairman) again. Next rate hikes are highly expected. EUR/USD Chart GBP/USD Chart USD/JPY Chart USD/PLN Chart - exotic pair has gained this time, dollar seems to feel better Source/Data: Investing.com, Goldman Sachs, TradingView.com

Investors and traders alike are concerned about what investments they should make on behalf of their portfolios and retirement accounts. We, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to monitor stocks and commodities closely due to the Russia-Ukraine War, market volatility, surging inflation, and rising interest rates. Several of our subscribers have asked if changes in monitor policy may lead to a recession as higher rates take a bigger bite out of corporate profits.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. We review our charts for both stocks and commodities to see what we can learn from the most recent price action. Before we dive into that, let’s review the various stages of the market; with special attention given to expansion vs. contraction in a rising interest rate environment which you can see illustrated below.PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIOWe are keeping an especially close eye on the price action of the SPY ETF. The current resistance for the SPY is the 475 top that happened around January 6, 2022. This top was 212.5% of the March 23, 2020, low that was put in at the height of the Covid global pandemic.The SPY found support in the 410 area at the end of February. If you recall (or didn't know), 410 was the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8% percent of the Covid 2020 price drop. Now, after experiencing a nice rally back, of a little over 50%, we are waiting to see if the rally can continue or if rotation will occur, sending the price back lower.COMMODITY MARKETS SURGEDThe commodity markets experienced a tremendous rally due to fast-rising inflation, especially energy, metals, and food prices.The GSG ETF price action shows that we recently touched 200%, or the doubling of the April 21, 2020, low. Immediately following, similar to the SPY, the GSCI commodity index promptly sold off only to then find substantial buying support at the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8 percent of the starting low price of the bull trend. Resistance for the GSG is at 26, and support is 21.A STRENGTHENING US DOLLARThe strengthening US dollar can be attributed to investors seeking a safe haven from geopolitical events, surging inflation, and the Fed beginning to raise rates. The US Dollar is still considered the primary reserve currency as the greatest portion of forex reserves held by central banks are in dollars. Furthermore, most commodities, including gold and crude oil, are also denominated in dollars.Consider the following statement from the Bank of International Settlements www.bis.org ‘Triennial Central Bank Survey’ published September 16, 2019: “The US dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% of all trades.” The report also highlighted, “Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion three years earlier.” That’s a lot of dollars traded globally and confirms that we need to stay current on the dollars price action.Multinational companies are especially keeping a close eye on the dollar as any major shift in global money flows will seriously negatively impact their net profit and subsequent share value.The following chart by www.finviz.com provides us with a current snapshot of the relative performance of the US dollar vs. major global currencies over the past year:KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades earlier this week, two of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

According to Investing.com Russia could require gas payment in roubles what clearly affects both Forex pairs (e.g. EUR/RUB) and natural gas price (TTF) which has increased by 31%. What’s more MOEX is back to the game after such a long break. Some companies have gained significantly already and many would like to know what’s ahead. Generally speaking Russian currency and Russia-associated markets are really volatile at the moment and there are many assets to watch in the following days. Let’s begin with natural gas price. Obviously monthly chart (yes, it’s been one month since the warfare started) shows the fluctuations caused by the start of invasion which took place on February 24th We may say that the true rise came few days later, as negotiations of cease-fire haven’t changed a thing and sanctions have begun to impact the markets. Further developments containing some signals of a ceasefire appeared not to coincide with the reality heading price of natural gas to a next rise. Natural Gas Price Chat (TTF) – monthly 24/02-23/03 - +31% Natural Gas Price Chart (TTF) Daily 22-23/03/22 +18.5% Russian Roubel (RUB) – Forex Charts +11% Monthly chart shows a huge decline and strengthening of RUB. EUR/RUB Chart - Monthly +6% EUR/RUB Chart - Daily (24h) Source/Data: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com  

PanCake Swap shows a good performance ending the previous day with a sharp rise and keeping the uptrend. Smooth Love Potion was really, really high but has decreased losing almost all 10% gain. Doge (DOGE) Price doesn’t look like the recent optimistic Elon Musk’s dance as memecoin trades below 0. PanCake Swap (CAKE) Price (CAKEUSD) – 24h Chart Smooth Love Potion (SLP) Price (SLPUSD) – 24 Chart Doge Price (DOGEUSD) – 24 Chart Source/Data: TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

Situation in Europe remains global number one as war persists. Even President of The USA, Joe Biden travels to Brussels and Poland to discuss the ongoing war. The day begins with the highly-awaited release of UK Retail Sales which takes place 7 a.m. Previously this indicator amounted to 1.9%. Two hours later we head to Germany, when German Ifo Business Climate Index goes public. The previous one hit 98.9. One hour later, so at 10 a.m. EU Leaders meet and are expected to continue talks linked with the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war which keeps people, but also investors, companies and markets as a whole uncertain. Natural gas price got back to high levels, crude oil price rises as well. Will there be any new sanctions? In the afternoon it’s time to have a look at the US Pending Home Sales (MoM) indicator which is presented at 2 p.m. hitting -5.7% previously. Source/Data: Investing.com Economic Calendar

Bitcoin price set to touch $45,000 by tomorrow if current tailwinds keep supporting price action. Ethereum price set to rally another 12%, with bulls targeting $3,500.00XRP price undergoes consolidation as the next profit level is $0.90.Bitcoin price, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies are enjoying a calm week with tailwinds finally able to thrive without constant interruption from headlines about Ukraine or Russia. Markets are also starting to adjust to the situation, with no immediate or significant movements anymore triggered by headlines coming out. Expect to see more upside with several possible cryptocurrencies eking out the best week of the year thus far.Bitcoin price has a defined game plan with $44,088 as the target for today and $45,261 by the weekendBitcoin (BTC) price is on the front foot for a third consecutive day as the rally turns into a broader uptrend. The crucial thing will be to see where BTC price will close this week, as bears need to get weakened with several short squeezes and breakouts running stops from short-sellers. Despite being elevated, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still not near the 'overbought' level, providing enough incentive for bulls and investors to keep buying BTC price action.BTC price is set to hit $44,088.73 today, the level of the March 03 highs. If that is gained – and given the current tailwinds – markets will start to expect Bitcoin to eke out new highs for the month with still a week to go. This additional bullish element should help conclude a daily close above $44,088.73. A support test on that same level will trigger new inflows from investors and provide the needed juice to pump price action up to $45,261.84, topping $45,000.00.BTC/USD daily chartA tail risk comes from the big joint meeting today in Brussels, with Biden meeting NATO, the G7 and E.U. leaders. An embargo on gas is on the table and could roil markets if the E.U. decides to walk away from Russian gas supplies, opening up the possibility of further Russian retaliation in Ukraine. That would make global markets move back to risk-off mode, with Bitcoin price dropping back to support at $39,780.68, and intersecting with the green ascending trend line. Ethereum price targets $3,500 after bulls force a daily close above $3,018.55Ethereum (ETH) price is performing a 'classic long' trading plan today after bulls pushed a daily close above $3,018.55. With price action in ETH opening slightly above this level, this morning, the price has faded slightly back towards that same $3,018.55 level to find support and offer the opportunity for new bulls and investors to enter the market. Ethereum price will move back to the upside and continue its rally, which is currently looking more and more like an uptrend that could continue over a broader time frame.ETH price will therefore need to find support around $3,018.55 as the fade will need to be kept in check, as too large a fade could spook investors. Seeing as the current favourable tailwinds are quite broadly present in global markets, expect to see another uplift towards $3,200 and $3,391.52 depending on the number of new positive headlines acting as additional accelerators. With those moves, at least new highs for March will be printed and possibly for February, depending on how steep the rally can continue.ETH/USD daily chartThe risk for Ethereum price is that price action slips back below $3,018.55. That could open the door for bears to jump in again and run price action back to $2,835.83, which is the low of March 21 and the monthly pivot. An additional fail-safe system is the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $2,808.84 as an additional supportive factor to take into account.https://youtu.be/wgpCSH70SIQXRP price undergoes consolidation as the bullish breakout hits $0.90Ripple's (XRP) price has bears and bulls being pushed towards each other as the bodies of the candles from the past two sessions grow very thin. This points to bulls and bears fighting it out and neither yet having the upper hand. Bears are defending the area above $0.8390 from bulls running to $0.8791, and bulls are trying to defend their support at $0.7843. With lower highs and higher lows, the stage is set for a breakout that, seeing the current tailwinds, will probably favour bulls, and result in a quick move towards $0.8791.XRP price is thus set to print new highs for March. With the stock markets having their best performing week for this year, expect to see even more tailwinds spilling over to cryptocurrencies and bulls targeting $0.9110. At that level, bulls will run into the 200-day SMA which will possibly be the halting point of the current uptrend as investors will need to reassess the situation before they advance. Where global markets are at that point and how far off a peace treaty is between Russia and Ukraine will determine if bulls will advance towards $1.00 in XRP price.XRP/USD daily chartAlthough several statements suggest it is unlikely, should Putin be backed further into a corner, the use of nuclear weapons could cast a dark shadow on markets. Expect a massive drop in equities and cryptocurrencies with those headlines coming out, where XRP price will fall towards $0.7843 or even $0.7600. In the first case, the historic pivotal level will provide support and further down, the monthly pivot is set to intertwine with the 55-day SMA, which should be enough to catch any falling-knife action. https://youtu.be/ZWrKMd2CiL8

While everybody was wondering about the end of the COVID-19 pandemy and Russia invaded Ukraine what started affecting the markets. Obviously natural gas and crude oil price are volatile recently. EU leaders accompanied by Joe Biden discuss outlooks and most probably next sanctions. As we wrote in the report about natural gas price the rise started to confuse the world few days after the invasion. It seems that all sanctions and fail of ceasefire negotiations made the crude oil price rise gain momentum. In the middle of March prices got back to the levels of the beginning of the month, but aggressive rhetoric of Russia made BRENT and WTI trading higher again. Let’s have a look at the Crude Oil Price monthly chart (courtesy of TradingView.com) 5-days chart (courtesy of TradingView.com) of Crude Oil Price shows a significant rise in recent days Data/Source: TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

Current levels of oil and petroleum products are high. Given that, what can explain such a surprising drop in US crude inventories?Energy Market UpdatesCommercial crude oil reserves in the United States fell much more than expected in the week ended March 18, according to figures released on Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).US crude inventories have shrunk by more than 2.5 million barrels, which implies greater demand and is obviously another bullish factor for crude oil prices. Such a decline in inventories is particularly remarkable as the American strategic reserves have also recorded a significant drop. This is the 25th consecutive week of falling strategic reserves since the Biden administration started to make those adjustments in an attempt to relieve the market.(Source: Investing.com)WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)Furthermore, some additional figures extracted from the same EIA report were released and surprised the markets.These are US Gasoline Reserves, which plunged by about 2.95 million barrels over a week, while the market was not even forecasting a two-million decline.(Source: Investing.com)Thus, US exports jumped by more than 30% compared to the previous week, not only due to large flows to Europe to replace Russian barrels, but also marked by a significant rebound in Asian demand.RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Beware that a NATO summit, a G7 summit, and a European Union summit are being held on Thursday, when the various countries could set a new round of sanctions against Moscow.So, how will black gold progress from now on? Do you think that the on-going negotiations with Iran and Venezuela could flood the market with additional barrels? Let us know in the comments!That’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Imagine all the people… living life in the Metaverse. Once we immerse ourselves in the digital sphere, gold may go out of fashion. Or maybe not?Do you already have your avatar? If not, maybe you should consider creating one, as the Metaverse is coming! What is the Metaverse? It is a digital, three-dimensional world where people are represented by avatars, a network of 3D virtual worlds focused on social connection, the next evolution of the internet, “extended reality,” and the latest buzzword in the marketplace since Facebook changed its name to Meta. If you still have no idea what I’m talking about, you can watch this or just Spielberg’s Ready Player One.The idea of personalities being uploaded online is an intriguing concept, isn’t it? In this vision, people meet with others, play, and simply hang out in a digital world. Imagine friends turning group chats on Messenger or WhatsApp into group meetups in the Metaverse of family gatherings in virtual homes. Ultimately, people will probably be doing pretty much everything there, except eating, sleeping, and using the restroom.Sounds scary? For people in their 30s and older who were fascinated by The Matrix, it does. However, this is really happening. The augmented reality technology market is expected to grow from $47 billion in 2019 to $1.5 trillion in 2030, mainly thanks to the development of the Metaverse. China’s virtual goods and services market is expected to be worth almost $250 billion this year and $370 billion in the next four years.In a sense, it had to happen as the next phase of the digital revolution. You see, we now experience much of life on the two-dimensional screens of our laptops and smartphones. The Metaverse moves us from a flat and boring 2D to a 3D virtual universe, where we can visualize and experience things with a more natural user interface. Let’s take shopping as an example. Instead of purchasing items on Amazon, customers could enter a virtual shop, see and touch all products in 3D, and buy whatever they wanted (actually, Walmart launched its own 3D shopping experience in 2018).OK, we get the idea, but why does Metaverse matter, putting aside sociological or philosophical issues related to transferring our minds into the digital world? Well, it might strongly affect every aspect of business and life, just as the internet did earlier. Here are a couple of examples. Famous brands, like Dolce & Gabbana, are designing clothes and jewelry for the digital world. Some artists are giving concerts in virtual reality. You could also visit some museums virtually, and instead of taking a business trip, you can digitally teleport to remote locations to meet with your co-workers’ avatars.Finally, what does the Metaverse imply for the gold market? Well, it’s difficult to grasp all the possible implications right now. However, the main threat is clear: as people immerse deeper and deeper into the digital world, gold could become obsolete for many users. Please note that cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are and will continue to be widely used as payment methods in the Metaverse.However, there are some caveats here. First, the invention and spread of the internet didn’t sink gold. Actually, the internet enabled gold to be widely traded by investors all over the world. Just take a look at the chart below. Although gold was in a bear market in the 1990s and struggled during the dot-com bubble, it rallied after the bubble burst.Second, the digital world didn’t kill the analog reality. Despite digital streaming of music, vinyl record sales soared last year, reaching a record high in a few decades. The development of the Metaverse could trigger a similar backlash and a return to tangible goods like gold.Third, some segments of the Metaverse look like bubbles. Maybe I’m just too old, but why the heck would anybody spend hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars to buy items in the virtual world? These items include virtual real estates (CNBC says that sales of real estate in the metaverse topped $500 million last year and could double this year), digital pieces of art or even tweets (yup, the founder of Twitter sold the first tweet ever for just under $3 million)! It does not make any sense to me, as I can right-click and download a copy of the same digital files (like a PNG file of a grey pet rock) for which people pay thousands and millions of dollars.Of course, certain items could increase the utility of the game or virtual experience, but my bet is that at least some buyers simply speculate on prices, expecting that they will be able to resell these items to greater fools. When this digital gold rush ends – and given the Fed’s tightening cycle, it may happen in the not-so-distant future – real gold could laugh last.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

  Stocks extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, but this week we may see some more uncertainty and a possible profit-taking action. The S&P 500 index gained 0.53% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its short-term uptrend after breaking above the 4,500 level. It gained over 380 points from the Mar. 14 local low of around 4,162. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we may see another correction and a profit-taking action at some point. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but investors were recently jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the index is expected to open virtually flat after an overnight advance followed by its retracement. The nearest important resistance level is at around 4,550-4,600, marked by the previous local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450. The S&P 500 index trades closer to its January-February local highs along the 4,600 level, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Remains Above the 4,500 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It is trading close to the new local high. Potential resistance level is at around 4,585, marked by the previous highs. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. We are maintaining our profitable long position from the 4,340 level, as we are still expecting a bullish price action in the near-term. However, to protect our gain, we decided to move the stop-loss (take profit) and price target levels higher. (our premium Stock Trading Alert includes details of our trading position along with the stop-loss and profit target levels) (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely open virtually flat this morning. However, the futures contract retraced its overnight advance, so we may see more uncertainty and a potential profit-taking action. The war In Ukraine remains a negative factor for the markets. The global markets will also be waiting for this Friday’s monthly jobs data release. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index extended its uptrend on Friday; this morning the futures contract retreated from its new local high. We are maintaining our profitable long position (opened on Feb. 22 at 4,340), but we moved stop-loss (take profit) and price target levels higher. We are still expecting an advance from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Proponents noted a 63.07% spike in the total transaction volume of cryptocurrencies across exchanges. Coinmarketcap data reveals a month-on-month increase of 4.75% in crypto trading volume. Bitcoin price crossed $47,000, fueled by $200 million shorts liquidated across exchanges. Bitcoin price is rallying, fueled by a frenzy of massive short liquidations on crypto exchanges. Proponents believe bulls have flocked to the market, as transaction volume exceeded $100 billion. Bitcoin price pushes past $47,000 in recent rally Bitcoin price crossed key resistance to hit a high above $47,000 in a rally fueled by the liquidation of millions of short positions. Analysts at the crypto intelligence platform Santiment observed a massive liquidation of shorts across exchanges at 1 pm and 6 pm UTC across crypto exchanges on March 27, 2022. Analysts argue that Bitcoin’s recent price rally to $47,000 was a response to liquidation in large quantities over the weekend. The average funding rate entered the long zone, where uncertainty among market participants increased. Therefore, analysts conclude that Bitcoin shorts have fueled the asset’s ongoing rally. Bitcoin and altcoin shorts liquidatedColin Wu, a Chinese journalist, reported a spike in the total transaction volume of cryptocurrencies, exceeding $100 billion over the past 24 hours. Wu referred to data from Coinmarketcap and observed a 63.07% increase in crypto transaction volume compared to March 26, 2022. The total crypto market value now exceeds $2.12 trillion. Historically, analysts have witnessed high transaction activity when large wallet investors flock to the market or scoop up crypto. Bloomberg analysts argue that Bitcoin looks overbought, compared to its 50-day Moving Average. Bitcoin price crossed key resistance at $45,000 in the current rally, erasing its losses for the year. FXStreet analysts have evaluated Bitcoin price and predicted the start of a new uptrend in the asset, as it crossed the $45,000 level.

Tesla stock surges on news of a potential stock split dividend.TSLA is up at $1,066 of +5.6% in Monday premarket trading.Tesla stock has rallied sharply from early March lows.Tesla stock (TSLA) is back to the top of the social media chatter on Monday, usurping GameStop and AMC in the process. The stock is surging this morning on news of a potential stock split dividend. Tesla previously did a 5-for-1 stock split back in August 2020, and other companies have followed suit, notably Amazon. This makes it easier for retail investors to own the stock when it has a more affordable share price.Tesla Stock News: Stock split imminent?Tesla's board of directors has already approved the plan to split the shares for a stock dividend and will put it to a vote of the shareholders. The news was well-received by retail shareholders who tend to be more active in the premarket than other holders. A stock dividend is exactly what it sounds like. Instead of receiving cash, shareholders receive new shares in the company. This means companies do not use up cash to fund the dividend. Stock dividends are usually dilutive to earnings per share (EPS) as more shares are in issue after the event. Tesla is up nearly 6% before the open. It is not all plain sailing though for the EV giant as more Chinese covid lockdowns are announced. Tesla will close its Shanghai giga plant for at least a day on the back of lockdowns in the city. Tesla Stock ForecastA powerful rally with the next target now set at $1,210. This would set up Tesla's (TSLA) stock to break to all-time highs. Currently, on the longer-term time horizon, the narrative is still bearish with a series of lower highs and lower lows. So breaking $1,210 turns Tesla bullish on all time horizons. Naturally, it is already bullish in the short term after last week's strong rally. Holding above $945 is the key pivot for medium and long-term traders. TSLA 20-hour chartThere is a short-term pivot at $1,000, with high volume at this level. Below sees a volume gap to $945, the key as mentioned above. Tesla chart, 15-minute

With the unrest in the Black Sea basin, it appears that there are two more cross-trade wars in the world. These are about energy and currency.Crude oil prices, down most of Friday, finally ended the week higher after a huge fire broke out at oil facilities in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, following attacks by Yemeni rebels.The great winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly the United States, which now seems to be taking advantage of Europe’s moment of weakness.The latter is indeed currently switching its energy supplies from Russian natural gas (pipeline-transported) to the much more polluting and much more expensive US shale gas. The reasons are much higher extraction (fracking) and transportation costs since it requires additional processes such as liquefaction/degasification and the deployment of more port terminals that are able to provide such steps – also much more energy-consuming – linked to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies.(Source: ResearchGate.net)By doing so, the European Union is going to increase its dependence on the US whilst a new and stronger block (including Asia) emerges on the east side.As a result, we have already started to witness dedollarisation in international trade, with the petroyuan set to dethrone the heavily-printed petrodollar.No wonder that the US dollar supply surge has ended up triggering uncontrollable and probably still underestimated inflation. As a result, this monetary virus is spreading through the global economy at a faster pace than any other variant! WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)“Inflation is like toothpaste. Once it's out, you can hardly get it back in again. So, the best thing is not to squeeze too hard on the tube.” – Dr Karl Otto PöhlThat’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.VIX – VOLATILITY S&P 500 INDEX – CBOE – DAILY CHARTSPY RALLIES +10%The SPY has enjoyed a sharp rally back up after touching its Fibonacci 1.618% support based on its 2020 Covid price drop. Money has been flowing back into stocks as investors seem to be adapting to the current geopolitical environment and the change in global central bank lending rate policy.Resistance on the SPY is the early January high near 475, while support remains solidly in place at 414. March marks the 2nd anniversary of the 2020 Covid low that SPY made at 218.26 on March 23, 2020.SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST - ARCA – DAILY CHARTBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY RECORD-HIGH $538,949!Berkshire Hathaway is up +20.01% year to date compared to the S&P 500 -4.68%. Berkshire’s Warren Buffet has also been on a shopping spree, and investors seem to be comforted that he is buying stocks again. Buffet reached a deal to buy insurer Alleghany (y) for $11.6 billion and purchased nearly a 15% stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $8 billion.These acquisitions seem to be well-timed as insurers and banks tend to benefit from rising interest rates, and Occidental generates the bulk of its cash flow from the production of crude oil.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. With that said, Berkshire is a classic example of not fighting the market. As Berkshire continues to make new highs, its’ trend is up!BRK.A – BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. - NYSE – DAILY CHARTCOMMODITY DEMAND REMAINS STRONGInflation continues to run at 40-year highs, and it appears that it will take more than one FED rate hike to subdue prices. Since price is King, we definitely want to ride this trend and not fight it. It is always nice to buy on a pullback, but the energy markets at this point appear to be rising exponentially. The XOP ETF gave us some nice buying opportunities earlier at the Fibonacci 0.618% $71.78 and the 0.93% $93.13 of the COVID 2020 range high-low.Remember, the trend is your friend, as many a trader has gone broke trying to pick or sell a top before its time! Well-established uptrends like the XOP are perfect examples of how utilizing a trailing stop can keep a trader from getting out of the market too soon but still offer protection in case of a sudden trend reversal.XOP – SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORE & PRODUCT – ARCA – DAILY CHARTKNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades last week, four of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Furthermore, successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Brent lost 7.7% to $106.4 on Monday on fears of a drop in demand due to a lockdown in Shanghai, China's financial hub. In addition, the Saudi and Yemeni cease-fire and the upcoming Ukraine-Russia talks in Turkey helped reduce the heat on the energy market.However, Monday's decline looks like only a temporary respite, and all these factors are still too weak to break the momentum that has been sustained since December. Brent has gained 2% since Tuesday morning to $108.5, with buyers buoyed by reports that Saudi Arabia might raise the selling price of its Oil by as much as 5% in May. The pipeline accident in the Caspian Sea and falling exports from Russia are also on the side of oil bulls right now.OPEC has denied plans to accelerate quota increases at its next monthly meeting on 31 March. Cartel officials also note that it is not yet possible to replace Oil from Russia entirely.Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear programme talks have taken a few steps back, removing hopes of a supply surge from the market.US oil producers are in no hurry to exploit market conditions. The number of working rigs is increasing, but no production increase has taken place so far, which has averaged 11.6 million barrels per day over the last six months. US commercial oil inventories are now 17.8% lower than a year ago.Oil has remained in a bull market even though its movements are no longer unidirectional. From a state of panic buying in early March, Oil has become more pragmatic. Its price now looks high compared with levels a year and two years ago, but from 2011 to 2014, it traded around current levels, with demand being notably weaker.A period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty is setting up a $100-120 Brent range in the coming weeks. A break in the upward trend will only occur with a final turn towards détente.

USDJPY seeks support The Japanese yen recouped some losses after a drop in February’s unemployment rate. The pair surged to August 2015’s high and the psychological level of 125.00. An overwhelmingly overbought RSI may cause a pullback if short-term buyers start to unwind their bets. As the market mood stays upbeat, trend followers could be waiting to jump in at a discount. 122.20 is the closest level if the greenback needs to gather support. A break above the current resistance would propel the pair to new highs above 127.00. AUDUSD hits major resistance The Australian dollar stalls as caution prevails ahead of major economic data. The rally slowed down at last October’s peak at 0.7550. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling weighs on the Aussie. The bulls may see a pullback as an opportunity to accumulate in hope of a new round of rally. 0.7400 from the latest bullish breakout would be key support should this happen. On the upside, an extended rally could propel the pair to last June’s highs around 0.7770 and pave the way for a reversal in the medium-term. US 100 to test major resistance Growth stocks rose amid a sell-off in the bond market. Short-term sentiment remains bullish after a series of higher lows which indicates sustained buying interest. The Nasdaq 100 is heading to the daily resistance at 15050. A bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the rally, foreshadowing a potential retracement. 14600 is the support and its breach may trigger a sell-off towards 14200 which sits at the base of the recent breakout. A close above the said hurdle may put the index back on track in the weeks to come.

BTC is up 4% on Monday, ending the day around $48K, and corrected by about 1% to $47.5K on Tuesday morning. Ethereum was up 1.8% in the last 24 hours to $3.4K. Terra is a leader of the day According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 1% over the day, to $2.15 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1 points to 42.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed rose by 11 points over the day, to 60, and moved from neutral level to the "greed" grade. On Tuesday, the index dropped to 56 points. Among the leading altcoins, Terra soared by 10%, Doge corrected by 2%. In most others, there is a slight correction in the growth of the last days, but they are in positive territory over the last day. Bitcoin continued to rise on Monday after it broke through the strong resistance of the February highs around $45K in the previous evening. By the end of the day, BTC has renewed the highs of early January above $48K, having won back the decline since the beginning of the year. Bitcoin is correlating with S&P500 The growth of the first cryptocurrency rested on the 200-day moving average ($48.2K). Confident consolidation above it promises to strengthen and expand the growth of the entire crypto market and breathe fresh impetus into the growth of bitcoin. In December, we saw a false break, but then the price levels were higher, and corrective sentiment intensified in the stock markets. Now Bitcoin is growing along with the rise of stock indices and often even acts as a leading indicator of investor sentiment. According to Arcane Research, BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 stock indicator recently hit a 17-month high. According to CoinShares, institutions invested $193 million in crypto funds last week, and it was the most significant amount in three months. Glassnode believes that the Bitcoin trend has already changed to bullish, as evidenced by the increase in the number of addresses accumulating BTC.

Bitcoin wins the race   While Russia accepts hard currencies like gold, a move like this shows that the efficient attributes of bitcoin come to the forefront in times of crisis and are accepted for large business transactions between nations. Bitcoin, daily chart, price breakout: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 29th, 2022. Shortly after, president Putin confirmed this new way of doing business. In addition, China and Russia agreed to a thirty-year contract in the gas sector, transacted in Euros. We can see that we find ourselves in times of currency warfare and that it is essential to pay close attention to where and in what form we store our values. The daily chart above reflects this recent news in a price advance of bitcoin from US$37,567 to US$47,701. A 28% advance in just two weeks. Bitcoin broke through the sideways range, and this week shall show whether this breakout will be a successful one or not. In this case, the bulls have their odds much in favor over the bears.     Bitcoin, weekly chart, price left the station: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2022. We have now left the entry zone (green box) compared to last week’s chart book and the published weekly chart. While the crowd now chases a trade, struggling with the typical inefficiencies of volatility breakouts (bad fills, slippage, being late), we are established in our positioning with the sum of 9 accumulated runners. The runners being the last 25% of each initial position. A fully de-risked or more precisely no-risk venture (see quad exit)! Looking at the weekly chart, we find the resistance distribution zones at around US$49,650 and US$52,430. We place additional entries if the price returns to the entry box top. Bitcoin, monthly chart, if March closes strong: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 28th, 2022. The price has entered the confirmed buy zone from a monthly perspective. The dual chart shows the progression from last week’s anticipation to this week’s chart book release. Should prices within this week stay within the green box, all-time frames are in alignment. A picture of a confirmed bullish bitcoin trend. It is a rare occurrence and confirmation for larger time frame traders and a call to look for low-risk entries, if no sufficient exposure is at play yet. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin wins the race: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 28th, 2022. Another split-screen view of a chart (a daily chart of the bitcoin/gold ratio) shows the progression of last week’s chart book publication and the situation right now. We had a triangle breakout last week and a substantial advance since then. The suggested rotation out of gold and into bitcoin was/is a successful one. The overall move was 30% in just two weeks. One can use this relationship as well to indicate bitcoins’ recent gain in strength and direction. Bitcoin wins the race: Change is never accepted lightly. We typically resist change and prefer an existing state of affairs as human beings. Nevertheless, we find ourselves in less than average circumstances with a worldwide pandemic, a never-ending war, and a general divide in opinions. Russia’s recent move towards approval of bitcoin shows that when the rubber meets the road, what works and is practical in times of crisis and need, wins the race. While governments around the globe feverishly try to get their electronic payment systems developed, bitcoin already finds its use spreading, and successfully so.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 29th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

GBPUSD attempts to rebound The US dollar went sideways as February’s PCE fell short of expectations. The pair met stiff selling pressure around 1.3300, a supply zone next to the 30-day moving average. A break below 1.3120 may have cast doubt on the viability of the previous rebound after short-term buyers rushed to the exit. 1.3220 is now a fresh resistance and buyers’ failure to lift these offers could send the pound into a deeper correction. Price action may revisit the psychological level of 1.3000 if it drops below 1.3070. NZDUSD sees a limited pullback The New Zealand dollar falls back as risk appetite subdues. The pair hit resistance under the psychological level of 0.7000 after it broke to a new high. The RSI’s overbought condition in this supply zone led buyers to take profit, driving the kiwi lower momentarily. Trend followers may see the retracement as a buying opportunity. Sentiment would stay bullish as long as the pair is above the previous low at 0.6880. A bearish breakout may dent short-term optimism and send the kiwi to 0.6790. US 30 keeps high ground The Dow Jones 30 retreats on profit-taking as the first quarter draws to an end. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that the rebound is picking up steam. The index hit resistance around 35400 and went horizontal, allowing the bulls to take a breather. Buyers may find relief as the RSI tanks into the oversold area. A rebound would propel the Dow to February’s high at 35870, where a bullish breakout could resume the uptrend in the medium term. The demand area between 34350 and 34580 is an important level.

AUDUSD struggles to rebound The Australian dollar recovered after the RBA raised its cash rate for the first time in over a decade. A break below 0.7100 further weighed on sentiment. Caution still prevails as buyers are wary of catching a falling knife. The RSI’s oversold condition on the daily chart may attract increasing buying interest, notably some short-covering. Nonetheless, the bulls need to lift offers near 0.7170 before a reversal could gain a foothold. This year’s low at 0.6970 is a critical floor and its breach could send the Aussie into 0.68s. NZDUSD becomes overextended The New Zealand dollar steadied after the Q1 jobless rate met expectations. The break below January’s lows at 0.6540 sent the kiwi into a free fall. On the daily chart, a bearish MA cross exacerbated the downward pressure, though the RSI’s incursion into the oversold area may temper the bearish drive. A rebound to 0.6540 may be necessary to recover from the overextension, which could be an opportunity to sell into strength. June 2020’s low at 0.6390 would be the next target when momentum returns. UK 100 grinds resistance The FTSE 100 rallies ahead of the BOE meeting on Thursday. A bullish RSI divergence could be a soothing sign for the bulls as it indicates a slowdown in the sell-off. A bounce above 7490 prompted sellers to cover their positions, further easing the downward pressure. 7580 is the next hurdle and its breach would bring the index back to the double top at 7670, where a breakout could resume the uptrend in the medium-term. 7420 is an immediate support and 7300 an important level to keep the recent rebound intact.

The New Zealand dollar has reversed directions after a solid 3-day rally. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6432, down 0.55% on the day. China jitters weigh on NZ dollar New Zealand’s number one trading partner is China, and it’s no exaggeration to say that when China sneezes, New Zealand catches a cold. China has tenaciously implemented a zero-tolerance policy for Covid, which has meant lockdowns that have confined millions of residents. Unsurprisingly, this has dampened growth in the world’s number two economy. The Covid restrictions were in full force in April, and UBS has projected that China’s economy plunged by 8.0% in Q2 and has downgraded China’s 2022 GDP to 3.0%, down sharply from 4.2%. Investors should not assume that China’s economy will re-energize once the Covid restrictions are eased – UBS is warning that China does not have a clear exit strategy from its current stringent Covid policy, which will hamper a recovery. The downgrade in China’s GDP (JP Morgan also lowered its forecast from 4.3% to 3.7%) has soured sentiment towards the New Zealand dollar. Over in New Zealand, retail sales for Q1 came to a screeching halt. The headline figure declined by 0.5%, down from 8.3% in Q4 2020, while core retail sales came in at zero, down from 6.8%. The weak numbers have contributed to today’s New Zealand dollar’s descent. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be in the spotlight on Wednesday when it holds a policy meeting. The central bank is expected to raise rates by 50-bps for a second straight month. This would bring the cash rate to 2.0%, which is considered a “neutral” stance. It’s noteworthy that the cash rate hasn’t been at the neutral level since 2015, so the RBNZ is moving into rarified air. The RBNZ will likely continue its rate-tightening cycle to 3.0% in order to curb spiralling inflation, and at tomorrow’s meeting, the Bank will likely state that more hikes are on the way. . NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD has support at 0.6352 and 0.6287 There is resistance at 0.6475 and 0.6540 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Summary: Volatile month for the US stock market. The easing of lockdowns will benefit not only China’s economy but economies that rely on China for trading, such as the NZD. Read next: EuroZone Inflation Exceeds Market Expectations (EUR/USD) (EUR/GBP), New Zealand Economy Will Benefit From China’s Lockdown Easing (GBP/NZD), GBP Bullish (GBP/USD)  The NASDAQ is reflecting the volatility of the financial markets. The NASDAQ is one of the indexes that has been caught in volatile trading on Tuesday. During trading on Tuesday, the NASDAQ turned positive, however, the positive turn was short-lived for the index. Despite managing to recover some of the losses seen this month, May has been a volatile month for the stock markets, concerns over decade-high inflation and fears that the hawkish Federal reserve’s moves to fight rising prices through raising interest rates may tip the US economy into a recession. NASDAQ Price Chart New Zealand Dollar The NZD benefitted of Monday in the wake of China’s easing of COVID-19 lockdowns, strengthening against the Pound Sterling and other currencies. The easing of lockdowns will benefit not only China’s economy but economies that rely on China for trading, New Zealand's economy is one of those who will benefit. The strengthening of China's Renminbi has also offered support to the NZD/USD currency pair, the US Dollar is struggling at the moment, and therefore, the recovery of the NZD has been noticeable. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com

Summary:  US treasury yields at the long end of the yield curve jumped higher yesterday to multi-week highs, a challenge to widespread complacency across global markets. The USD found a modicum of support on the development, though this was insufficient to reverse the recent weakening trend. It will likely take a more determined rise in US yields and a tightening of financial conditions, possibly on further Fed pushback against market policy expectations, to spark a more significant USD comeback. FX Trading focus: US yields jump, not yet enough to reverse recent USD dip A very interesting shift in the US yield curve yesterday as long yields jumped aggressively higher, with the 30-year yield getting the most focus on a heavy block sale of US “ultra” futures and a softer than expected 30-year T-bond auction from the US treasury. The 30-year benchmark yield jumped as much as 15 basis points from the prior close, with the 10-year move a few basis points smaller. We shouldn’t over-interpret a single day’s action, but it is a technical significant development and if it extends, could be a sign of tightening liquidity as the Fed ups its sales of treasuries and even a sign that market concern is growing that the Fed will fail to get ahead of inflation. As for the market reaction, the USD found some support, but it was modest stuff – somewhat surprisingly in the case of the normally very long-US-yield-sensitive USDJPY. Overnight, a minor shuffle in Japanese PMI Kishida’s cabinet has observers figuring that there is no real determined pushback yet against the Kuroda BoJ’s YCC policy, with focus more on bringing relief to lower income households struggling with price rises for essentials. Indeed, BoJ policy is only likely to come under significant pressure again if global yields pull to new cycle highs and the JPY finds itself under siege again. As for USDJPY, it has likely only peaked if long US yields have also peaked for the cycle. Chart: EURUSD EURUSD caught in limbo here, having pulled up through the resistance in the 1.0275+ area after a long bought of tight range trading, but not yet challenging through the next key layer of resistance into 1.0350+. It wouldn’t take much of a further reversal here to freshen up the bearish interest – perhaps a dip and close below 1.0250 today, together with a bit of follow through higher in US yields and a further correction in risk sentiment. Eventually, we look for the pair to challenge down well through parity if USD yields retest their highs and beyond. Source: Saxo Group Elsewhere – watching sterling here as broader sentiment may be at risk of rolling over and as we wind our way to the conclusion of the battle to replace outgoing Boris Johnson, with Liz Truss all but crowned. Her looser stance on fiscal prudence looks a sterling negative given the risks from UK external deficits. Her instincts seem pro-supply side on taxation, but the populist drag of cost-of-living issues has shown her to be quick to change her stripes – as she has often been, having reversed her position on many issues, including Brexit (was a former remainer). Today’s reminder of the yawning trade deficit (a current run rate of around 10% of GDP) and the energy/power situation together with dire supply side restraints on the UK economy have us looking for sterling weakness – a start would be a dip below 1.2100 in GBPUSD, which would reverse the reaction earlier this week to the US July CPI release. The week ahead features an RBNZ on Wednesday (market nearly fully priced for another two meetings of 50 basis points each). NZDUSD has looked too ambitious off the lows – there is no strong external surplus angle for the kiwi like there is for the Aussie – might be a place to get contrarian to the recent price action if global risk sentiment is set to roll over again finally now that the VIX has pushed all the way to 20 (!).  A Norges Bank meeting on Thursday may see the bank hiking another 50 basis points as it continues to catch up to inflationary outcomes. The US FOMC minutes are up next Wednesday and may be a bit of a fizzle, given that the bulk of the easing financial conditions that the Fed would like to push back against came after the meeting. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength. The US dollar hasn’t gotten much from the latest development in yields – watching the next couple of sessions closely for direction there, while also watching for the risk of more sterling downside, while NZD looks overambitious on the upside. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs. The EURGBP turn higher could follow through here – on the lookout for that development while also watching GBPUSD status in coming sessions and whether the EURUSD move higher also follows through as per comments on the chart above. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1400 – US Fed’s Barkin (non-voter) to speak 1400 – US Aug. Preliminary University of Michigan sentiment Share Source: FX Update: US yield jump brings USD resilience if not a reversal.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today raised its main interest rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 3 percent, a level last seen seven years ago. It was the fourth 50-basis point hike in the current cycle, which may make the RBNZ one of the stronger monetary tightening central banks to bring down inflation.   Today's hike was in line with market expectations. Some policymakers believe that inflation may soon begin to stabilize or even start to decline through lower fuel prices and transportation prices. However, inflation may not return to the New Zealand central bank's target until mid-2024. Thus, further monetary tightening may be required, with its end expected in the first quarter of 2023 - according to a statement issued to today's decision. As a result, the RBNZ may raise the main interest rate by about 3.75 percentage points throughout the cycle, to 4 percent, from the record low of 0.25 percent that occurred in 2021. Inflation in New Zealand rose to 7.3 percent y/y in the second quarter of 2022, up from 6.9 percent in the previous period. This was the highest figure since the second quarter of 1990.   The NZD/USD exchange rate seemed to react relatively calmly to the above decision, as it was in line with the market consensus. At 07:30 GMT+3 on the Conotoxia MT5 platform, the NZD/USD exchange rate rose by 0.25 percent, to 0.6360. As a result, at this hour, of the major currencies against the US dollar, it is the NZD that seems to have gained the most. Since the beginning of the month, the NZD has gained 1.10 percent to the USD, which may make New Zealand's currency the strongest of the world's major currencies.   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Bank of New Zealand with another rate hike

Summary: Dow Jones suffered in the wake of the Fed FOMC. RBNZ interest rates are now at 3%. DJI Closed in the red on Wednesday After the Fed minutes were released, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered from its lows. After Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla (TSLA), made a statement, Manchester United (MANU) regained a crucial level. As Bitcoin declined, so did Coinbase (COIN) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT). There weren't many breakouts among the conflict. Denbury (DEN), an energy play, was able to rise above a buy mark as its relative strength line accelerated. Also monitoring its own entrance is Wesco International (WCC). DJI Price Chart RBNZ pushed interest rates to 3% The market's reaction to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) August policy update and guidance led to a sell-off of the New Zealand Dollar. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) signaled it will raise interest rates to levels higher than they had previously been expecting. On paper, the RBNZ did everything it could to back NZD bulls: it said that the economy was in good shape, that inflationary pressures were widespread, and that it would continue to raise interest rates. As the RBNZ suggested they will need to raise rates higher than they had previously thought, short-term New Zealand bond yields increased. Two additional rises of 50 basis points are now likely to occur throughout the course of 2022, and a smaller hike may occur in early 2023. The Pound to New Zealand Dollar fell by two thirds of a percent in the 15 minutes following the decision. The drop in the value of the Kiwi dollar may indicate that the market foresaw everything the RBNZ did, allowing investors to quickly shift their focus from domestic factors to international events. We observe that sentiment is low in midweek trading, with equities markets down and commodity prices falling. Even more so than the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar is also falling; in fact, it is the greatest loser of the day. Sources: poundsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com, investors.com

The New Zealand dollar has started the week on a positive note. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6405 in Europe, up 0.41%. Consumer Confidence falls to record low New Zealand’s Westpac Consumer Confidence dropped to its lowest level since 1988, when records first started. The Q4 reading of 75.6 was sharply lower than the Q3 release of 87.6. Consumers have been hit by a double-whammy of a sharp rise in consumer prices as well as higher borrowing costs. The cost of living has soared with sharp price increases across the board, particularly in food, housing and energy. This has translated into a gloomy mood for consumers as the economic outlook is poor, with a recession projected from mid-2023. Often the lead-up to Christmas provides a boost in consumer confidence but this time around, the holiday season hasn’t provided any cheer to consumers. We’ll get a look at New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence on Tuesday. The index has been in deep freeze, and is expected to improve to -50.0, up from -57.1. New Zealand’s Service PMI remained in expansion territory in November, but fell to 53.7, down from 57.1 a month earlier. This follows last week’s Manufacturing PMI, which slowed to 47.4 in November, down from 49.1 in October. This marked the first back-to-back months of contraction since New Zealand’s first nationwide lockdown in 2020. With a gloomy outlook for global manufacturing, it could be a bumpy start in 2023 for the country’s manufacturing sector. Read next: Ole Hansen: a scenario of much lower oil prices remain remote given the support from OPEC+ production cuts and the US beginning to buy back| FXMAG.COM The New Zealand economy might be struggling, but NZD/USD has been on fire, climbing 14.4% since October 1st. The New Zealand currency received a massive boost as risk appetite soared courtesy of some soft US inflation reports, which raised hopes that the Federal Reserve would pivot. Last week’s FOMC meeting was a rude shock for the markets as the Fed pledged to remain aggressive, and NZD/USD plunged close to 2%. If the markets heed the Fed’s hawkish message, the US dollar could continue to gain ground. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6404. Above, there is resistance at 0.6489 There is support at 0.6294 and 0.6209 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. NZD/USD shrugs off soft consumer confidence - MarketPulseMarketPulse

USDJPY breaks major support The Japanese yen soared after the BoJ unexpectedly relaxed its yield cap. The previous rebound quickly had turned into a bull trap at 137.80 under the 20-day moving average. The sharp fall below 134.50 is a sign of liquidation, invalidating the recovery attempt. The August low of 130.50 is a critical floor to test the bulls’ resolve and its breach may pave the way for a bearish reversal in the new year. As the RSI sank into oversold territory, the former demand zone next to 135.00 has turned into a supply one. NZDUSD struggles for support The New Zealand dollar edges lower over a larger-than-expected trade deficit in November. The bears have faded last week’s bullish momentum and pushed the kiwi back below 0.6400. This level has since become a fresh resistance which suggests strong pressure ahead. Previous lows around 0.6300 coincide with the 20-day moving average and an attempt to break below puts the pair at the risk of a deeper correction, with 0.6200 as a possible target. A close back above 0.6400 would keep buyers in the game. XAUUSD grinds resistance A retreating US dollar boosted the appeal of bullion. Despite the metal’s choppy price action, the bulls have been looking to consolidate their gains above August’s high of 1805. With sentiment shifting to a brighter side, more buyers may place follow-up bids as the RSI drops back to the neutral area on the daily chart. This could be confirmed by the price bouncing off the 20-day moving average (1775) then the psychological tag of 1800. A close above the recent high of 1823 could attract momentum buyers and trigger a rally to 1860. Read next: Indonesia Has Potential In The Development Of Solar Energy| FXMAG.COM

USDCHF tests major support The US dollar slipped after data showed a rise in initial claims for unemployment benefits. The price is testing last April’s low near 0.9200 after giving up all the gains from the breakout rally eight months ago. This means that the greenback is at a critical level as a deeper fall would cause a bearish reversal in the medium-term. On the hourly chart, the latest rebounds hit resistance at 0.9345, forming a double top in the process. 0.9290 would be the first hurdle to lift before a recovery could materialise. NZDUSD bounces back The New Zealand dollar recovers thanks to an uptick in overall risk appetite. After the pair cleared the August high of 0.6460, sentiment favours the kiwi as it goes into a consolidation mode. A bounce off 0.6230 indicates that buyers have stepped in and a close above 0.6330 has prompted short-term sellers to cover their bets. 0.6300 has become a fresh support. The support-turned-resistance at 0.6400 is a major obstacle and its breach could help the bulls regain control and extend the rally beyond 0.6500 eventually. NAS 100 tests critical floor The Nasdaq 100 bounces as signs of a cooling US labour market eases concerns about a hawkish Fed. On the daily chart, a U-turn from mid-September’s sell-off point (12200) was disconcerting. With the price having retraced all the way back to the start (10620) of the November rally, the index could be vulnerable to renewed selling. A break below 10450 would confirm a dead cat bounce and cause a sustained bear market. 11130 is the first resistance and 11280 a key level to lift before buyers could turn the situation around. Read next: Apple rose 2.83%, Amazon.com gained 2.88%, Alphabet climbed 2.82%, Meta Platforms advanced 4.01%, and Netflix was up 5.14%| FXMAG.COM

We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike rates by 50bp to 4.75% next week, in line with market pricing. Peaking inflation and a deteriorating housing market and activity suggest the RBNZ will not reach its projected 5.50% peak rate. A hawkish hike (unchanged projections) should lift NZD, but more NZD strength may soon rely only on external factors Source: Shutterstock Some things have changed since the November meeting On 22 February, the RBNZ will make its first policy announcement of the year. The most recent meeting, held in November, resulted in a 75bp rate increase (to 4.25%) and a significant upward revision to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) estimates, which indicated that rates would have peaked at 5.50%. At the time, the hawkish surprise seemed to be supported by robust CPI and wage figures as well as encouraging activity indicators. The economic landscape in New Zealand has changed since then. Although the third-quarter GDP numbers were good, activity and consumer confidence surveys began to decline, wage growth slowed, unemployment edged up, inflation did not accelerate further, and inflation expectations dropped. The housing market has continued to deteriorate in line with RBNZ forecasts, with prices falling by 9% since the March 2022 peak. Change to New Zealand house price index from the peak in March 2022 (% change) Source: ING, CoreLogic A (hawkish) 50bp seems appropriate now We believe that the most important input to the monetary policy decision right now is the growing evidence that inflation has peaked. The headline rate steadied at 7.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, while the RBNZ had forecast another acceleration to 7.5%. Crucially, falling energy prices, wage growth, and inflation expectations point to disinflation beginning in the first quarter, whereas the RBNZ had predicted 7.5% for the first quarter and a slowdown to 6.90% only in the third quarter of 2023. Read next: USD/JPY Is Trading Close To 134.00, EUR/USD Is Remaining Above $1.07| FXMAG.COM The less alarming inflation story argues against another 75bp move next week. Nonetheless, given the low frequency of RBNZ policy announcements, policymakers will want to take the chance to deliver a 50bp hike before hard economic data deteriorates materially. Markets are fully pricing in a 50bp hike in February, so the references to future tightening will drive most market moves. Updated economic projections will shed some light in this sense. A revision lower in inflation forecasts will be necessary, but we suspect the RBNZ will resist the temptation to scale back peak rate projections, which may be left at 5.50% in an attempt to avert a bond rally similar to the one seen in the aftermath of the latest Fed and ECB meetings. High chances that 5.50% won't be reached at all Indeed, the deterioration in the property market has been in line with the RBNZ forecasts, but this does not mean that the Bank is willing to risk facing the repercussions of the estimated 19% house price contraction for the broader economy and financial stability should the disinflation story prove more benign. With many indications that such improvement in the inflation picture will materialise earlier than previously expected, and the New Zealand economy already feeling the strains of tighter financial conditions, we think the chances that another 75bp of tightening (as per latest projections) will be delivered after 50bp next week have decreased meaningfully. Markets have indeed started to cast doubts on the RBNZ projected rate path, with the peak rate pricing embedded into the OIS curve having declined to around 5.30% from 5.50% starting from mid/late January. Unchanged RBNZ rate forecasts next week see rate expectations staying at least supported in the near term, but we think data will ultimately provide enough evidence to trigger a dovish repricing. Our base case is only one last 25bp hike in April, so a 5.0% peak rate. There are non-negligible risks of another 25bp in May, but we’d rule out a 5.50% peak rate unless the inflation picture changes dramatically. We think the RBNZ will see more value in stopping earlier and shift to a credible 'higher-for-longer' rhetoric, rather than pushing rates higher and inevitably face rate cut speculation. At the moment, markets are seeing a 60% probability of rates cuts starting already in November this year. NZD could rise next week, but bullish domestic inputs will fade The two-year NZD-USD swap rate has been on a steady downtrend in the past three months, having declined from the 75bp December levels to the current 25bp. This has been due to the combination of repricing higher in Fed rate expectations and contracting RBNZ peak rate pricing. Rate differential and NZD/USD Source: ING, Refinitiv   However, the rate differential continues to play a secondary role for NZD/USD compared to the relative equity performance and global risk sentiment, according to our short-term fair value model. This means that NZD/USD is not overvalued despite the deterioration in the short-term swap rate differential. NZD/USD rose after each of the past three RBNZ announcements, and given markets are not fully pricing in the 5.50% projected peak rate, a hawkish 50bp hike may trigger a small NZD rally next week. But, as discussed above, we think the domestic push for a stronger NZD will run out of steam as data should endorse the disinflation story and the RBNZ should ultimately fall short of its expected tightening projections.   Our bullish view on NZD/USD for the remainder of the year is therefore primarily a function of global factors: improved risk sentiment, positive exposure to the China reopening story, a benign USD decline. We target 0.67-0.68 in the second half of 2023. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Summary:  Today we look at the solid bounce in risk sentiment on Friday ahead of a three-day weekend in the US (where markets are closed for Presidents Day today) as US treasury yields rolled over and took the USD lower as well, a bearish reversal for the greenback just as it was trying to break free to the upside. In commodities, we focus on copper and crude and the lack of follow-through in the China re-opening narrative. In FX, we touch on the USD reversal, the JPY this week and NZD and SEK. In stocks to watch, a discussion of Deere and its strong results on Friday as well as the busy week ahead in earnings reports, where a wide variety of companies are reporting. But drowning out everything is the risk of an escalation in the US-China confrontation after the US warned China in stark language against providing lethal aid to Russia. This after VP Harris charged Russia with crimes against humanity in its assault on Ukraine. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Read next: Twitter And Elon Musk Faced A Growing List Of Claims| FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.     Source:Podcast: Geopolitical risks crowd out all other considerations for now | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

AUDUSD lower as expected this week to hit very strong support at 6800/80. A low for the day exactly here. Longs need stops below 6760. A break lower is a sell signal of course, targeting 6725/20 today. First resistance at 6850/60 - shorts need stops above 6880. Target is obviously 6800 for profit taking. NZDUSD made a high for the day at resistance at 6240/50 as we trade sideways. Shorts need stops above 6275. A break higher can target 6320/25. Expect strong support at 6185/75. Longs need stops below 6150. A break lower is a sell signal. AUDJPY stuck in an 8 day range , holding within the range of 14th February, which was 9164 - 9304 - so we at least need a breakout of this range to see some movement. Support at 9195/75. Longs need stops below 9155. A break to the downside can target 9080/70. Targets are 9230 & 9270. A break above the 200 day moving average at 9310/20 should be a buy signal targeting 9375/80. USDJPY longs at buying opportunity at 134.10/133.90 worked perfectly as we edge slowly in the right direction to reach 135.22. If we continue higher this week (I do believe we are resuming the longer term bull trend as you know) look for 135.45/55 then 136.00. However yesterday's inside day is not helpful at this stage! A buying opportunity again at 134.10/133.90. Longs need stops below 133.75. Much better support at 133.20/00. Longs need stops below 132.75. EURJPY held 20 pips above support at 142.95/75 then finally hit my target of 144.00/20, with a high for the day exactly here. Further gains are possible to 4 month trend line resistance at 144.60/70. First support at 143.10/142.90 with a low for the day exactly here yesterday. Longs need stops below 142.70. A break lower sees 143.05/15 act as resistance to target 142.40, perhaps as far as 142.00/141.90 for profit taking on shorts. NZDJPY remains in a tight sideways range - only useful for scalpers. Resistance again at 8450/80. A break above 8510 therefore should be a buy signal. Shorts at 8450/80 can target 8400/8390 & 8370/60, perhaps we can fall as far as 8310/8290 eventually. Read next: The Real Estate Market In China Has A Chance To Revive, Indonesia Economy Is More Resilient| FXMAG.COM EURUSD broke support at 1.0690/70 as expected for sell signal targeting 1.0600. At last we hit this target, with a low for the day exactly here, but outlook remains negative. Although there is minor support at 1.0590/1.0570. So a break below 1.0560 is the next sell signal. Gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 1.0650/60. Shorts need stops above 1.0670. A sell opportunity today at 1.0700/1.0720. Shorts need stops above 1.0735. A break higher can target resistance at 1.0770/80. USDCAD tests 4 month trend line resistance at 1.3570/90. Shorts need stops above 1.3610. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 1.3700. Shorts at 4 month trend line resistance at 1.3570/90 can target 1.3535 & 1.3490/80 for profit taking. Dollar Index breaking above a 3 month bear trend line with completion of a bull flag - so I think we have another buy signal for the dollar as longs as we hold the trend lines at 103.60/40. Immediately targets for the dollar index are 105.15 & 105.80. EURCAD I am going to wait to see if a head & shoulders forms. A high for the day exactly at the 50 day moving average at 1.4440/50 helps this pattern to develop as I stated yesterday, therefore so far this pattern is starting to play out. A break below support at 1.4230/20 will be the sell signal targeting 1.4150 & 1.3980. CADJPY now has a small double top as we trade sideways for a week. We made a low for the day exactly at support at 9830/20. A break below 9920 can target a buying opportunity at 9840/20. Longs need stops below 9800. GBPUSD longs at strong support at 1.1960/40 worked with the bounce from 1.1920 hitting the target & minor resistance at 1.2020/30 for profit taking. A high for the day at strong resistance at 1.2130/50. Our shorts here can target 1.2070, perhaps as far as 1.2030/20 for profit taking. Strong support again at 1.1960/40.

Evidence continues to accumulate that inflation worldwide is far from tamed, and that increases in rates so far have been inadequate to the task of bringing it back to target. Inflation data is again surprising to the upside, economic growth is rebounding worldwide and labour markets remain very tight. In this context, a 6% handle in terminal rates remains a distinct possibility, and not just in the US. Markets are not taking it well. Bonds and stocks are again falling together, and the dollar is rallying on the back of rising expectations for Federal Reserve rates and its status as a safe-haven. The dollar rallied strongly against all G10 currencies, and most major emerging market ones.   This week, attention will be focused on key economic data coming out later in the week, particularly out of the Eurozone. The global PMIs of economic activity will be out on Friday, though this should move little from the preliminary numbers already released. The day before, a critical flash inflation report out of the Eurozone for the month of February. Another upward surprise here may propel market pricing of the Eurozone terminal rate past the 4% level, which we think is still modest considering the task at hand for the ECB. We would expect that to buoy the euro back towards the top of the recent range. Figure 1: G10 FX Performance Tracker [base: USD] (1 week) Source: Refinitiv Datastream Date: 27/02/2023 GBP Last week’s UK PMIs of business activity provided a strong positive surprise, swinging back squarely towards expansion for the first time in eight months and contradicting directly the recent recession narrative. While sterling lost ground against the US dollar, as did every other G10 currency, it managed to end up near the top of the performance rankings. Figure 2: UK PMIs (2021 – 2023) Source: Refinitiv Datastream Date: 27/02/2023 Sentiment seems so bearish on the pound that it’s hard to see who the next seller will be, and there is also some optimism in the air around talks to finalise a Brexit agreement on trade arrangements with Northern Ireland with the European Union. There isn’t much on the docket this week in the UK, so expect the pound to trade off events elsewhere. EUR Data flow out of the Eurozone last week should have put to bed any notions that the European Central Bank is near the end of the hiking cycle. The PMIs of economic activity for February surprised squarely to the upside and effectively ended any possibility of a Eurozone recession, in our view. Further, the inflation report was revised upwards, both in its core and headline components. This week we expect more of the same, with a flash prices report that will show, again, no sign of a downward trend in core inflation. The ECB, as we expected, is flagging increasingly the stickiness of this key inflation sub index as a source of concern and justification for its hawkish rhetoric. We expect this to put a floor under the common currency soon. USD Economic data out of the US confirmed that the economy is still firing on all cylinders. Data on the housing market and business and consumer sentiment all surprised to the upside. More importantly, so did the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, which has erased any sign of a downward trend and actually appears to be on the rebound. Figure 3: US PCE Index (2016 – 2023) Source: Refinitiv Datastream Date: 27/02/2023 There isn’t much on the calendar in the US this week, and markets are focusing on the next critical data point in the week following, the labour market report for February. Therefore, speeches from Federal Reserve officials will be in focus this week. We expect most communications to once again strike a hawkish tone, keeping the door open to at least three more 25bp rate hikes from the FOMC at the next three policy meetings in March, May and June. JPY The yen was one of the underperformers in the G10 last week. Newly appointed Bank of Japan governor Ueda, who will assume the post in April, struck a rather dovish tone during the Lower House hearings on Friday. There has been intense speculation that the BoJ will begin normalising rates later in the year, though Ueda stressed that policy will remain loose for the time being, while failing to comment on the possibility of higher rates. This lack of a hawkish shift has somewhat alarmed yen bulls, and partly contributed to the recent sell-off in the yen. February inflation data will be released in Japan on Friday, with investors bracing for another fresh multi-dace high in the critical core index. CHF Despite a good start, the Swiss franc ended last week lower against the euro and underperformed most of its G10 peers. At least part of this underperformance may be due to the widening gap in interest rate expectations between Switzerland and its peers. The market expects higher rates than before, but the extent of recent repricing has been less significant than in the US or the Eurozone. Read next: Pfizer Is In The Early Stages Of An Acquisition Of Biotech Company Seagen, Twitter's Staff Has Shrunk Since Elon Musk Took Over| FXMAG.COM In contrast to the previous rather quiet week, this one promises to be quite interesting in terms of macroeconomic releases from Switzerland. The focus will be on the fourth quarter GDP data (Tuesday) and retail sales and PMI data (Wednesday and Thursday respectively). Solid readings may support the currency, as on the one hand, they could point to a ‘soft landing’, and on the other add the arguments in favour of more aggressive monetary policy tightening. AUD Risk-sensitive currencies sold off hard against the US dollar last week, led by the Australian dollar in the G10, which sank by around 3%. Last week’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes were actually rather hawkish. RBA members stressed their view that additional rate hikes would likely be required in the coming months, citing the upside surprises in wages and inflation. The bank even acknowledged that discussions were had on the possibility of a 50bp hike at the last meeting, and that a pause in the tightening cycle was not an option on the table. Investors shrugged off these hawkish remarks in favour of news elsewhere, notably the waning in optimism surrounding China’s economic recovery. Fourth quarter GDP data will be released in Australia on Wednesday, as will the monthly CPI print for January. Upside surprises in either or both of the upcoming growth and inflation readings would reinforce the narrative that the RBA still has some way to go in raising rates, and could provide some respite to the recent move lower in AUD. NZD The New Zealand dollar held up better than its Australian counterpart last week, in no small part due to the hawkish message from the RBNZ. New Zealand’s central bank raised rates by another 50bps last week, while noting that core inflation remains too high and that near-term inflation expectations were elevated. The bank noted that it was too soon to ascertain the economic implications of the recent cyclone, though the weather disaster is likely to keep price pressures elevated and make it harder to the RBNZ to bring down rates of inflation in a sustainable manner. Figure 4: RBNZ Base Rate [%] (2010 – 2023) Source: Refinitiv Datastream Date: 27/02/2023 Markets are currently only pricing in a 25bp move at the next meeting in April, though we suspect that the central bank will place greater emphasis on the inflation implications of the cyclone, rather than growth, and that another 50bp hike is very much on the table. CAD Continued signs of a downtrend in last Tuesday’s inflation data can be seen as a bearish signal for CAD, as it should take some pressure off the Bank of Canada to continue raising interest rates. Markets see an outside chance of one more hike from the BoC at the next couple of meetings, though we continue to think that it will stand pat for now, particularly given that core inflation has shown encouraging signs of trending back towards the bank’s target. Attention this week will be on a handful of macroeconomic data releases in Canada, notably Tuesday’s Q4 GDP data print and Wednesday’s manufacturing PMI. SEK Last week’s meeting minutes from the Riksbank were seen as hawkish, reinforcing the recent shift from new governor Thadeen. The krona outperformed its high-risk major peers in response to heightened rate hike bets, and was able to end the week around the middle of the G10 performance tracker. We suspect that volatility levels in SEK could be ratcheted up a notch or two this week, with a handful of data releases likely to be closely watched by market participants. We will be keeping a close eye on Tuesday’s fourth quarter GDP print and, perhaps more importantly given their timeliness, the latest manufacturing and services PMIs on Wednesday and Friday respectively. NOK There was little in the way of major market moving news out of Norway last week, with the krone largely driven by general market sentiment. Global oil prices, which tend to be a key factor underlying NOK performance, also ended the week more-or-less unchanged. This can also partly explain the limited volatility in EUR/NOK. We should have slightly more to report next Monday, with a handful of economic data releases scheduled for this week. This includes January retail sales (Monday), the manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) and labour report (Friday). CNY The yuan spent last week on the backfoot, selling off by more than 1% against a broadly stronger US dollar. USD/CNY rose to its highest level since December, continuing its move toward the key psychological level of 7.0. The yuan also underperformed most of its emerging market peers. While a large part of the shift in USD/CNY can be attributed to the stronger greenback, some of it appears to be due to concerns over US-China relations in the context of Taiwan. The topic came back into focus after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US is positioning to increase its military presence on the island to 100-200 troops from around 30 a year ago. This week will be a treat for China watchers, as fresh PMI data will give us a better idea of the pace of recovery in the Chinese economy. January data was impressive, and we have reasons to believe February’s readings will indicate a vigorous rebound after the end to zero-COVID. The NBS data will be released on Wednesday, and the Caixin PMIs on Wednesday and Friday. To stay up to date with our publications, please choose one of the below: 📩 Click here to receive the latest market updates👉 Our LinkedIn page for the latest news✍️ Our Blog page for other FX market reports 🔊 Stay up to date with our podcast FXTalk Source: Dollar rebound continues as inflation fears return to markets | Ebury UK

Reserve Bank of Australia (Not) a long pause The RBA kept rates steady in April after having hiked on ten consecutive occasions by a cumulative 350bps. The central bank had suggested earlier that they would prefer being data dependent going forward and assess the impact of the tightening done so far. We however think that the domestic inflationary momentum is still strong to signal an end to the current hiking cycle. Employment data improved in February after declining in the previous two months, the unemployment rate fell back to 3.5% and the National Australia Bank (NAB) business conditions survey remained resilient. Confidence has weakened, though in line with the monetary tightening, but we think further hikes are necessary to bring inflation closer to the 2%–3% mark from the current sub-8% levels. We expect a terminal cash rate of 4.10% by Q3. Elevated inflation (including rents and utilities) rules out a near-term rate cut, in our view, especially as the economy will likely avoid an outright recession. Reserve Bank of New Zealand A tough balancing act The inflation outlook has turned higher for 2023. Weather-related shocks like Cyclone Gabrielle have exacerbated these risks. The impact of the cyclone on New Zealand’s food prices is still emerging, prompting us to believe the aftereffects could linger. Even without the cyclone, the tightness of the labor market has stretched inflationary pressures further. Services inflation is turning sticky, and given that employment rose in February, the impact of monetary tightening so far has not translated into job losses just yet. This makes the case for a quick turnaround in inflation difficult; we now expect the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) to average just short of 6% in 2023. Growth has started to suffer, and the economy is already under a probable recession, while property prices have sharply cooled. The central bank cannot overlook the challenge of higher inflation becoming more normalized. We expect a terminal rate of 5.50% for the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by June, but the balance will be tricky as a quicker slowdown would prompt rate cut expectations. A sudden pivot is unlikely, but we expect a rate cut by early 2024. Bank of Korea Wait-and-see stance After a cumulative 300 bps of rate hikes starting in August 2021, the BoK paused at its February 2023 meeting, albeit not unanimously. Although the central bank revised its growth and inflation projections for 2023 marginally lower, five members (out of seven in total) were open to a higher terminal rate (of 3.75%) in a clear hawkish tilt. Inflation retreated to 4.8% y/y in February (after an acceleration in January following utility price hikes). However, core inflation remains sticky at best (at 4.8%), even as growth measures have deteriorated on softer consumption and tech exports. Yet inflation is expected to maintain a downward adjusting bias due to base effects, averaging close to 3.8% in 2023. With this outlook in mind, we remain comfortable keeping the terminal rate at 3.50% currently. Another hike in April cannot be ruled out but will be contingent on the March CPI print. Further hikes are unlikely, as monetary policy remains tight for now. Contrary to earlier expectations, an immediate policy pivot has been ruled out by the central bank unless the 2% inflation goal is clearly in sight. We now expect rate cuts by the BoK to begin in early 2024. People’s Bank of China Policy hamstrung by deficient demand With yet another 25-bp cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), the PBoC continues to rely on quantitative tools over outright policy rate cuts to ease monetary policy. The latest RRR cut was aimed at replenishing bank lending capacity. Although China’s consumer spending and investment rebounded in the first two months of the year after COVID-19 restrictions were dropped in December, the strength of the recovery has underwhelmed. The recovery also remains uncertain given still-elevated unemployment, continued weakness in the property sector and declining exports weighing on industrial output. Headline credit growth, while strong, was likely due to policy pressures on banks, with more funding directed toward government-led entities. Meanwhile, private firms and households’ demand for credit has remained subdued. Rising mortgage prepayments and still-increasing household deposits suggest that demand deficiency has been the major hurdle for China’s recovery—also evidenced by downside surprises in inflation. Given insufficient domestic demand, we believe the PBoC will prefer to rely on quantitative tools (like RRR cuts) to sustain credit expansion. Room for policy rate cuts remains limited without a further downward adjustment to deposit rates, which are already at an all-time low. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income (FTFI) Policy Rate Forecasts vs. Market Pricing Source: Central Bank Watch | Franklin Templeton

The NZD/USD currency pair updated a four-week price low today, reaching 0.6144. Sellers of NZD/USD failed to overcome the support level of 0.6150 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe), followed by a price pullback. But in general, the pair remains bearish, as today's release is largely a deciding factor, primarily in the context of further prospects for tightening monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. New Zealand inflation in the red According to the published data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in New Zealand decreased to an annualized rate of 6.7% in the first quarter. Most experts had forecast a more modest decline to 7.1%. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the index was at 7.2%. In quarterly terms, the CPI also came out in the "red zone" at 1.2%, with a forecast growth of 1.5%.     Recall that at the end of its meeting in early April, the RBNZ surprised investors with its hawkish attitude by raising the interest rate again by 50 basis points. In an accompanying statement, the regulator said committee members had discussed raising the rate by 25 or 50 basis points, but in the end the scales tipped in favor of the more hawkish scenario, given that inflation "is still too high and persistent." Note that on a quarterly basis, the consumer price index reached the 7.2% target in Q4, and according to preliminary forecasts, it should have come out at 7.1% in the first quarter of this year, which is actually at the same level as before, in the area of 30-year highs. But the de facto index fell to 6.7%, the weakest growth rate of the past year (the index only went below that level in Q4 2021). All this suggests that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may revise its aggressive policy, slowing the rate hike pace to 25 points. It should be emphasized that, following the April meeting, the regulator effectively refuted the assumption that the current monetary policy tightening cycle is nearing its end. The minutes state that the central bank needs to continue raising the rate further to bring inflation back to the 1%–3% target level. However, given the fact that the inflation growth rates in the country have slowed down, the balance will gradually tilt towards a more moderate pace of monetary policy tightening. Will the RBNZ moderate its fervor? The next RBNZ meeting will take place in just a month, on May 24. Therefore, the regulator will be working with the inflation data published today. CPI growth reports in New Zealand are released quarterly, so the next inflation release is expected in July. Prior to the May meeting, data on the growth of the nation's economy for the first quarter of this year will still be made public. If the published figures repeat the trajectory of the previous release, then the issue of reducing the rate of tightening of the monetary policy will be resolved. Read next: Euro against US dollar - Jakub Novak's trading tips and analysis| FXMAG.COM Recall that the GDP volume in the fourth quarter of last year grew by 2.2% YoY with a growth forecast of 3.3% (while the third quarter recorded a growth of 6.4%). In quarterly terms, the country's economy contracted by 0.6%, while most experts forecasted a more modest decline – by 0.2%. The fourth-quarter result was much weaker than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's expectations, which predicted a 0.7% increase in the country's economy for that period. Severe weather conditions at the beginning of the year clouded the economic outlook. The incessant rains caused landslides, flooding, destruction of homes, highway closures and infrastructure damage. According to many experts, such circumstances will affect the economic results of the first quarter. Conclusions Today's published report reflected a slowdown in inflation growth in New Zealand. The consumer price index entered the red zone, increasing pressure on the kiwi. The NZD/USD pair impulsively declined, despite the overall weakening of the U.S. currency (the U.S. dollar index is showing a downward trend today). From a technical perspective, the pair is between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands lines on the daily chart, below all Ichimoku indicator lines (including the Kumo cloud), which formed a bearish "Parade of Lines" signal. NZD/USD sellers today tested the 0.6150 support level (the lower Bollinger Bands line on the D1 timeframe) but were unable to consolidate below it, forcing them to retreat. Therefore, despite the "bearish" fundamental background, it is advisable to consider selling only after overcoming this price barrier. In this case, the target of the downward movement will be 0.6070 – at this price point, the lower Bollinger Bands line on the weekly chart coincides with the Kijun-sen line. Relevance up to 11:00 2023-04-21 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/341022

FX markets seem rather non-plussed about the threat of a US debt default. Instead, traded levels of volatility are sinking back to pre-Ukraine invasion levels. Investors are expecting a quiet summer. Lower volatility is favouring the carry trade, where currencies in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe offer the highest risk-adjusted yields US President Joe Biden met with Speaker Kevin McCarthy at the White House yesterday USD: Dollar does ok in a carry trade world Talks to prevent a US Treasury debt default trundle on. Yesterday's discussions between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to raise the debt ceiling were described as 'productive.' Apart from the slightest of kinks in the one-month part of the USD/JPY volatility term structure, it is hard to discern much risk priced around a possible 'X' date (US Treasury runs out of money) in June.    Instead the stand-out is the lower levels of traded FX volatility around the world – both in the developed and emerging FX space. Volatility has fallen back to pre-Ukraine invasion levels in early 2022 as investors fear a prolonged period of unchanged rates, e.g. will the Fed hike, cut, or leave rates unchanged all year? Lower levels of volatility go hand-in-hand with a slightly more constructive risk environment, where the MSCI World equity index is edging up to the highs of the year. Here it seems investors are preferring to put some money to work absent of clear signs of the sky falling in on the back of tighter credit conditions. Putting money to work in the FX space means a look at the carry trade – or expecting spot FX to put-perform steep forward curves. For example, selling USD/MXN three months forward would return 2%, should spot USD/MXN stick around current levels. And looking at volatility-adjusted returns around the world, the currencies of Latin America (especially the Mexican peso) and Central and Eastern Europe (especially the Hungarian forint) offer the best risk-adjusted return. These have been the outperformers this year and could continue to do well unless US debt ceiling negotiations take a turn for the worse. Offering overnight rates in excess of 5.00%, the dollar scores quite well on carry trade metrics. And the current environment probably explains why the Japanese yen is performing poorly despite all the perceived risk. Expect the dollar to stay slightly bid in this rangy FX environment until there are much clearer signs of US disinflation and a slowing activity – which we have argued is more a story for the third quarter. For today, look out for US PMI releases, new home sales data and perhaps some remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. DXY to trade well within a 102.80-103.60 range. Chris Turner EUR: Positioning still seems quite long Despite the correction in EUR/USD from nearly 1.11 to 1.08, net speculative long euro positioning still seems quite stretched, and presents an outside risk in EUR/USD to the 1.05 area should conditions drive it there. Such conditions could include serious speculation over another couple of Fed rate hikes (only another 10bp of hikes is currently priced) or severe dislocation in US money markets if the US Treasury gets very close to an unthinkable default on its debt. Neither of those is our baseline view and instead EUR/USD probably hangs around this 1.08 area for a while. We think the third quarter will be the period when clear signs of US disinflation and weaker activity data drive a much more obvious dollar bear trend. In Europe today, look out for some eurozone May PMI numbers and also the March current account data. Having seen a monthly deficit as wide as €36bn last summer on the back of the energy spike, the eurozone current account is now returning towards more familiar monthly surpluses in the €25-30bn area. This serves as a reminder that EUR/USD is still probably undervalued on a medium-term basis. Chris Turner Read next: The Commodities Feed: Debt ceiling talks & a more hawkish Fed| FXMAG.COM GBP: Services PMI in focus In the past, the release of services PMI data has been a driver of sterling given the large representation of the services sector in the UK economy. Another positive reading is expected today in the 55 area. Such an outcome would unlikely dent the market's current pricing of an 84% probability that the Bank of England hikes by 25bp on 22 June. Far more important to that debate will be the UK April CPI data released tomorrow. 0.8660-0.8735 is the clear EUR/GBP range and it will probably be tomorrow's CPI figures which pose the best chance of a range break-out. Chris Turner NZD: RBNZ to deliver hawkish 25bp hike In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to raise rates by 25bp to 5.50% overnight. This is also our call (more details in our meeting preview) and what markets are fully pricing in, so all eyes will be on the new set of economic and rate forecasts. The RBNZ had originally signalled rates would have peaked at 5.50%, and there hasn’t been much in the economic data to suggest an urgency to revise the peak rate higher: the jobs market has remained tight, but inflation slowed more than expected in the first quarter. What truly changed the economic backdrop was the government’s budget announcement last week, with a fiscal boost that exceeded expectations and a sharp revision in growth forecasts, which no longer include a recession this year. When adding consistently higher-than-expected inbound migration figures (which the RBNZ itself deemed as an inflationary event), it is likely that the Reserve Bank will acknowledge fresh upside risks for prices tomorrow, and will add more tightening to the rate projections. Markets are pricing in a 5.80% peak, but we think the RBNZ may push the projected peak up to 6.00%. NZD/USD remains largely driven by the global and USD story, but AUD/NZD has seen increasing pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)-RBNZ policy divergence. A hawkish 25bp hike by the RBNZ tomorrow could give NZD/USD some support even if USD stays bid while pressuring AUD/NZD further: the 1.0485 December lows may soon be tested.  Francesco Pesole Read this article on THINK Tags New Zealand dollar FX Daily FX Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

New Zealand central bank expected to pause after 12 consecutive hikes New Zealand Manufacturing PMI expected to show manufacturing is stalled The New Zealand dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6189, down 0.35%. RBNZ expected to take a pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be in the spotlight on Wednesday. The central bank holds its policy meeting and is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. The RBNZ has raised rates 12 consecutive times since August 2021 but has signalled that it’s time for a breather. Shortly after the May hike, Deputy Governor Hawkesby said that there would be a “high bar” for the RBNZ to continue raising rates.  The RBNZ won’t be issuing a rate statement and there may not be much for the markets to digest other than the expected pause. The decision to pause is certainly not a no-brainer, given current economic conditions. Inflation is running at 6.7%, more than triple the Bank’s target of 2% and the labour market remains tight. At the same time, demand has slowed and economic activity has cooled as the RBNZ’s relentless rate hikes filter through the New Zealand economy. RBNZ policymakers are confident that the economy has cooled and inflation, although high, is on the right path. If inflation continues to fall, there is a good chance that the pause could be extended – the central bank would clearly like to wrap up the current rate-tightening cycle, and unlike what we saw when the Fed took a pause, there are no signals to the markets that this pause will be a one-time occurrence. New Zealand releases Manufacturing PMI for June on Wednesday after the rate decision. The manufacturing sector has contracted for three straight months, with readings below the 50.0 line, which separates contraction from expansion. The PMI is expected to rise from 48.9 to 49.8, which would point to almost no change. . NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD tested support at 0.6184 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6126 0.6260 and 0.6383 are the next resistance lines  

AUD: RBA can still hike in September As we expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates on hold today, defying consensus expectations. The Bank pointed out how higher interest rates are “working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy” and opted for a pause to better assess incoming data. The new CPI forecasts now see inflation declining to 3.25% by the fourth quarter of next year and fall back into target by the end of 2025. This is probably a dovish signal, as it implies the current pace of tightening is appropriate to take inflation back to target in an acceptable timeframe. However, the RBA has shown elevated sensitivity to data, and we doubt this will change very soon: another high inflation read may well convince it to add a hike before the peak. Our base case is still for one last 25bp increase to be delivered in September when electricity tariffs could deliver an inflation surprise. AUD may underperform other peers like the NZD and the Scandies until a bullish “pocket” emerges in September, should the RBA go ahead with one last hike.

NZD: Jobs data allows RBNZ to stay put New Zealand released 2Q jobs data overnight, and while the labour market clearly remained quite tight, the Reserve Bank will likely welcome tentative signs of loosening conditions. The unemployment rate rose a tad more than expected, from 3.4% to 3.6%, and while hiring was strong, wage growth eased off a bit from 4.5.% to 4.3%. The RBNZ is facing a situation where the latest CPI numbers came in below their forecasts, but showed signs of stickiness in the core measures, putting a greater focus on labour dynamics. The quite outdated labour statistics released overnight moved in the right direction and allow the RBNZ to keep its messaging unchanged at the August meeting. However, we continue to see risks the Bank is underestimating the domestic inflation risks and markets are underestimating the risks of another hike before year-end. NZD is dropping in line with other pro-cyclical currencies this morning after the US credit downgrade, but we think the Kiwi dollar has now priced in much of the negative news (China growth repricing, RBNZ pause) and is emerging as an attractive option in August should a stable risk environment and subdued FX volatility favour carry trades and recovery in undervalued currencies. We still expect a recovery to 0.63 in NZD/USD by the autumn.

Asian stocks fell with US futures as yields on 10-year Treasuries reach a 16-year high above 4.54% while China Evergrande Group missed a debt payment adding to fears about the sectors massive debt pile. Broad dollar strength continues with the greenback trading at its highest level since December as another Fed member said another rate hike this year will be needed. Crude oil trades softer amid macroeconomic concerns and a stretched speculative long while gold holds support despite multiple headwinds. The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events. Equities: S&P 500 futures are under pressure this morning with the US 10-year yield hitting 4.55% extending its relentless move higher. If the US 10-year yield moves to 4.75% we will most likely begin seeing widening cracks in equities as the prevailing narrative of falling inflation collapses. Yesterday’s session saw no meaningful rotation between defensive and cyclical sectors. Today’s key events are US consumer confidence figures and Costco earnings tonight after the market close. FX: Higher Treasury yields, particularly in the long end, pushed the dollar higher to extend its gains. USDCHF rose to near 4-month highs of 0.9136 with immediate target at 0.9162 which is 0.382 retracement level. EURUSD broke below 1.06 support despite better-than-expected German Ifo. USDJPY attempted a move towards 149 with verbal intervention remaining lacklustre. AUD slipped on China woes while NZD and CAD were relative gainers, and the outperformer was SEK with the Riksbank starting its FX hedging today. Commodities: Crude trades lower for a second day with macroeconomic concerns, a stronger dollar and a stretched speculative long and easing refinery margin weighing on prices. Gold prices continue to defy gravity, holding above $1900 support with demand for stagflation protection offsetting the current yield and dollar surge. LME copper is trading at the widest contango (oversupply) since at least 1994 as inventories expand and China demand concerns persist. Wheat continues to face downward pressure from huge Russian harvest despite weather related downgrades in Australia. Fixed Income. The Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer message reverberates through higher long-term US Treasury yields. Unless there is a sign that the job market is weakening significantly or that the economy is slowing down quickly, long-term yields will continue to soar. With 10-year yields breaking above 4.5% and selling pressure continuing to mount through an increase in coupon supply, quantitative tightening, and waning foreign investors demand, it’s likely to see yields continue to rise until something breaks. This week, our attention turns to US PCE numbers and Europe CPI data while the US Treasury will sell 2-, 5- and 7-year notes. It will be interesting to see if investors buy the belly of the yield curve as a sign that they are preparing for a bull rather than a bear-steepening. Overall, we continue to favour short-term maturities and quality. Volatility: VIX Index still sits at around the 17 level, but the downward pressure in equity futures this morning could push the VIX much higher. This could be a cycle where the market tests the 20 level. Macro: Fed’s Goolsbee (voter) kept the door open for more rate hikes while emphasizing higher-for-longer. Moody’s warned of a protracted government shutdown saying that it could weigh on consumer confidence and markets. Meanwhile, after PMIs, Germany’s Ifo also showed a slight improvement in business outlook to 85.7 vs. 85.2 expected, while the previous was revised higher to 85.8. There were several ECB speakers once again. Lagarde largely repeated what was said at the ECB Press Conference, noting policy rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to target. Schnabel said there is not yet an all-clear for the inflation problem. In the news: Interest rates will stay high 'as long as necessary,' the European Central Bank's leader says (Quartz), Teetering China Property Giants Undercut Xi’s Revival Push (Bloomberg), Russia dodges G7 price cap sanctions on most of its oil exports (FT), Global trade falls at fastest pace since pandemic (FT), Dimon Warns World Not Ready for 7% Fed Rate: Times of India via Bloomberg Technical analysis: S&P500 downtrend support at 4,328 & 4,200. Nasdaq 100 support at 14,687 &14,254. DAX downtrend support at 14,933. EURUSD below strong support, resuming downtrend to 1.05. GBPUSD downtrend strong support at 1.2175. Gold rangebound 1,900-1,950. Crude oil correction: WTI expect to 87.58. Brent to 80.62. US 10-year T-yields 4.55, uptrend but expect minor correction Macro events: US New Home Sales (Aug) exp 699k vs 714k prior (1400 GMT), US Consumer Confidence (Sep) exp 105.5 vs 106.1 prior. Speeches from Fed’s Bowman (voter) as well as ECB’s Lane, Simkus and Muller. Earnings events: Costco reports FY23 Q4 earnings (aft-mkt) today with estimated revenue growth of 8% y/y and EPS growth of 14% y/y. H&M reports FY23 Q3 earnings (bef-mkt) with estimated revenue growth of 7% y/y and EPS growth of 47% y/y. Micron Technology reports FY23 Q4 earnings (aft-mkt) with estimated revenue growth of -41% y/y and EPS of $-1.18 vs $1.37 a year ago. Accenture reports FY23 Q4 earnings (bef-mkt) with estimated revenue growth of 4% y/y and EPS unchanged from a year ago. Nike reports FY24 Q1 earnings (aft-mkt) with estimated revenue growth of 3% y/y and EPS growth of –20% y/y.

How elections and the RBNZ disinflation gamble can steer the Kiwi dollar The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to keep rates on hold this week while awaiting new data and given the pre-election environment. The RBNZ’s assumptions on disinflation are quite optimistic, and there are risks of a November hike. Polls suggest a National-led coalition may win: NZD might benefit from a promised change in the RBNZ remit.   Growth and housing outlook not as bad as expected This week’s RBNZ announcement is widely expected to see another hold by New Zealand policymakers. A key reason is that the Bank still hasn’t seen the third-quarter inflation and jobs data, which will be released on the 16th and 31st of October, respectively. The New Zealand data calendar hasn’t, however, been totally quiet since the August RBNZ meeting. Growth figures were quite surprising: showing activity rebounded 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, more than doubling consensus expectations, and significantly above the 0.5% projected by the RBNZ. Also, a revision of first quarter figures indicated the country had not actually been in a recession into March.   Growth should cool again in the second half of the year, but the RBNZ’s projections of two negative QoQ GDP readings in the third and fourth quarters by the RBNZ may be overly pessimistic. The Treasury, which has generally been quite more upbeat than the RBNZ, currently forecasts no more negative quarterly GDP reads.   The house price correction, which has been a major cause for concern and might have argued for less restrictive monetary policy, has eased, largely in line with the revised RBNZ August projections. Latest monthly figures showed the house price index having declined by only 0.2% MoM, and 8.7% year-on-year, reinforcing the view that the worst of the housing correction is past us.   Housing correction has cooled off in New Zealand

RBNZ inflation forecasts still look like a gamble The RBNZ’s latest inflation projections – from the August Monetary Policy Statement – show an optimistic scenario for disinflation, largely based on assumptions about the impact of restrictive monetary policy and slowing domestic as well as external demand. Those assumptions are, however, met with the risks associated with: a) the extra spending deployed by the government from May, b) the recent spike in oil prices, c) residual supply-related inflationary effects of severe weather events, and d) the still unclear impact of booming net migration on wages and prices (easing labour supply, but raising demand for housing and other services). We think that the RBNZ will continue to acknowledge those risks to inflation and strike a generally hawkish tone this week, with the aim of keeping inflation expectations capped. However, a rate hike seems unlikely a week before the elections and before having seen official CPI and jobs data. Once inflation figures are out, the RBNZ may tolerate a slightly higher-than-anticipated third quarter headline CPI (the projection is for 6.0% YoY), but expect greater scrutiny on non-tradable inflation (projected at 6.2%).    RBNZ inflation forecasts   Polls point to a National-led coalition Advance voting in New Zealand has already been going on for a couple of days, while physical election day will take place on Saturday 14 October, with the preliminary results starting to be released from 7PM local time. Latest opinion polls suggest that the incumbent Labour Party (of former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern) should lose its parliament majority to the opposition National Party. A centre-right coalition, led by the National Party and supported by the right-wing ACT New Zealand is currently projected to secure somewhere between 45% and 50% of parliament seats, possibly short of a majority. A coalition may need to include the nationalist NZ First to secure enough seats: latest polls give NZ First just above the 5% threshold required to enter parliament without winning a single-member seat.   Single party and coalition opinion polls ahead of the 14 October election   The monetary policy implication of a potential shift in government First of all, the past few years have taught to take pre-election polls with a pinch of salt. Secondly, the impact of politics on NZD are generally quite limited. This time though, a change of government (assuming the polls are right and NZ First joins a National-led coalition) might have some implications for the RBNZ further down the road. The National Party recently published its pre-election fiscal plan, where it pledged more fiscal discipline compared to Labour. Specifically, National said it would spend around NZD3bn less than Labour over four years, with the aim of reducing debt at a faster pace. If the RBNZ links any rebound in CPI to additional fiscal spending, the change in government could suggest a less hawkish RBNZ in the longer run. Another aspect to consider is the RBNZ remit. Over the summer, the National Party Finance spokeperson Nicola Willis pledged to restore the central bank’s sole focus on the inflation target. This would imply removing the RBNZ’s dual mandate (maximum sustainable employment) and potentially reviewing the additional housing stability objective that were added in 2018 and in 2021 respectively. The first – and more impactful – effect would suggest higher RBNZ rates in the medium and long term; while removing housing affordability objective would in theory be a dovish argument, the stricter inflation target would likely overshadow any housing-related considerations.   FX: Domestic factors can determine relative NZD performance The Kiwi dollar has resisted USD appreciation better than other commodity currencies in the past month, and we have seen AUD/NZD fall from the recent 1.0900 peak to below 1.0700 – also thanks to the Reserve Bank of Australia hold this week. We think that the RBNZ will continue to signal upside risks to their inflation forecasts and keep the door open to more tightening if needed this week, but it is very likely that November will be a much more eventful policy meeting for NZD, with new rate and economic projections being released and after the inflation and jobs data for the third quarter are released. Expect some significant NZD volatility around the two data releases this month: we are still of the view that inflation can surprise to the upside, so expect some positive impact on NZD. Markets are currently pricing in 15bp of tightening by November. When it comes to the election outcome, a hung parliament with parties failing to find a working coalition would be the worst scenario for NZD. Should either Labour or National manage to lead a government after the vote, we expect the market implications to be mostly bonded to those for the RBNZ remit (and less so to fiscal spending). So, very limited in the event of Labour staying in power, and moderately positive for NZD (negative for NZ short-dated bonds) in a win by the National Party as markets may speculate on the remit being changed to focus solely on a strict inflation target. The chances of a hike in November will, however, depend almost entirely on CPI and jobs data, not on the vote.   Expect any meaningful swing in NZD to be mostly visible in the crosses, especially in the shape of relative performance against other commodity/high-beta currencies. A combination of National electoral win (and workable coalition) and CPI surprise could make AUD/NZD re-test the 1.0580 May low and slip to 1.0500. NZD/NOK is another interesting pair, with more room to recover after a large summer slump: a return to 6.60 is possible in the above scenario. When it comes to NZD/USD, the swings in USD continue to be an overwhelmingly dominant driver. With US 10-year yields still moving higher and our rates team pointing at 5.0% as a potential top, we see more downside for NZD/USD in the near term. NZD-positive developments domestically would not prevent a drop to 0.5800 if US bonds remain under the kind of pressure we have seen in recent weeks. In the medium run, we still expect US data to turn negative and the Fed to start cutting in first quarter 2024, which should pave the way for a sustained NZD/USD recovery.

FX Daily: Hard to buck the euro downtrend The dollar has shown resilience after disappointing JOLTS job openings data yesterday, leaving EUR/USD under pressure as the euro’s idiosyncratic negatives fuel bearish momentum. Today, the Bank of Canada may deliver a hawkish hold despite worsening growth, giving some help to the Canadian dollar.   USD: Showing resilience The larger-than-expected drop in October’s JOLTS job openings has offered new reasons to speculate on more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year, but the stronger ISM services figures in November have worked as an offsetting factor in terms of FX impact. AUD and NZD are rallying this morning, helped by stronger fixing for the yuan from the People's Bank of China (PBoC) after yesterday’s downgrade of China’s outlook by Moody’s. However, the dollar has remained rather supported across the board even after the disappointing JOLTS figures, a signal that markets are taking a less aggressive stance in FX following non-conclusive evidence of deterioration in the US outlook.   Speaking of non-conclusive evidence, it’s worth noting that the ADP payrolls being released today have no predictive power for actual payrolls. Still, markets have often moved on out-of-consensus ADP numbers. Today, expectations are 130k. MBA mortgage applications, final third-quarter labour cost data, and October trade balance figures are also on the calendar today but should not move the market. We suspect markets are holding a more cautious stance as we head into the key US payroll figures on Friday and the Fed meeting next week, where there is a good probability the FOMC will deliver a protest against rate cut bets – especially if data fails to turn lower. When adding the soft idiosyncratic momentum faced by the euro, we remain modestly bullish on the dollar into the FOMC.

NZD The New Zealand currency has traded in a rather tight range with its Australian counterpart so far in 2024, with both currencies largely driven by global factors, more so than domestic developments. There has been very little news to go off since the first half of December. The New Zealand economy continues to appear fragile, and concerns surrounding the health of Chinese demand remains a significant risk to the outlook. A solid rebound in global dairy prices, which are now trading at their highest level since March 2023 is, however, bullish for NZD, and has helped keep the currency rather well bid in recent months. The economic calendar remains fairly light in the next week or so, and we will have to wait for PMI figures (18/01) and the Q4 inflation print (23/01) for the next meaningful macroeconomic data.

We remain in the midst of a rather quiet period of macroeconomic news out of New Zealand, with no tier-1 reports out yet in 2024. The New Zealand dollar instead continues to trade on global risk sentiment and news out of China. The PBoC’s surprise decision to hold its 1-year MLF rate unchanged today has triggered a bout of selling in both AUD and NZD this morning, with the New Zealand dollar slipping to its lowest level since mid-December amid fears over the health of Asia’s largest economy. Domestic activity should begin to pick up pace in the next few weeks, with a handful of economic data releases likely to ramp up volatility in the New Zealand currency. Q4 business confidence (Monday) and the December PMIs (Thursday) will be closely watched by investors. Market participants will also likely have one eye on next Tuesday’s Q4 inflation report, which will be key in determining the direction and timing of RBNZ interest rate changes in the coming few months.

FX Daily: Asia in the driver's seat The dollar is softer and pro-cyclical currencies are following the yuan higher after news that China is preparing a CNY 2tn rescue package for the stock market. The BoJ revised inflation expectations lower but signalled further progress towards the target, keeping anticipation for a hike in June alive. We expect New Zealand CPI to be soft tonight.   USD: China and Japan in focus The dollar has been mostly moved by developments from outside of the US since the start of the week. China remains the centre of attention before key central bank meetings in the developed world. Risk sentiment was boosted overnight as the Chinese government is reportedly considering a large CNY 2tn package to support the struggling stock markets. The rescue plan should be mostly targeted to the Hang Seng stock exchange, which has sharply underperformed global equities of late. This is a strong message that conveys Beijing’s intention to artificially support Chinese markets in spite of the deteriorating economic outlook in the region, and it is reported that other measures are under consideration. It does appear a temporary solution, though. Ultimately, stronger conviction on a Chinese economic rebound is likely necessary to drive a sustainable recovery in Chinese-linked stocks. For now, the FX impact has been positive; USD/CNY has dropped to 7.16/7.17 and we are seeing gains being spread across pro-cyclical currencies as safe-haven flows to the dollar are waning. Doubts about the impact of Beijing rescue package’s effects beyond the short-term automatically extend to the FX impact. It does seem premature to call for an outperformance of China-linked currencies (like AUD and NZD) and softening in the dollar on the back of this morning’s headlines. Another important development in Asian markets overnight was the Bank of Japan policy announcement. In line with our expectations and market consensus, there were no changes to the yield curve control, and forward guidance remained unchanged. Inflation projections were revised lower from 2.8% to 2.4% for the fiscal year starting in April. The revision was mostly a consequence of declining oil prices, and the inflation path continues to show an overshoot of the target for some time. All this was largely expected, and markets are focusing on Governor Kazuo Ueda’s claim that Japan has continued to inch closer to the inflation goals, keeping expectations for an eventual end to the ultra-dovish policy stance some time this year. The yen is experiencing a rebound which is likely boosted its oversold conditions. Money markets currently price in a 10bp rate hike in June. Extra help from a declining USD this morning might push USD/JPY a bit lower (below 147) today, but we suspect that markets may favour defensive USD positions as the Fed meeting approaches. Domestically, the only release to watch today in the US is the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index, which will give some flavour about the state of the sector ahead of tomorrow’s S&P Global PMIs. DXY may stabilise slightly below 103.00 once the China-led risk rally has settled.

NZD: Non-tradeable inflation offers RBNZ a hawkish "loophole" New Zealand’s inflation matched estimates at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 4.7% YoY in the 4Q print published overnight. This is a touch higher than our forecast (4.6%), but well below the 5.0% projected by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand for the period. However, non-tradeable CPI did come in hotter than expected at 1.1% QoQ, which has led to a move higher in short-term NZD rates. In FX, NZD/USD broke back above 0.6100 on the release, even though it quickly defaulted to being traded by external factors. The stronger non-tradeable CPI may offer an excuse for the RBNZ to stick to some hawkish narrative on 28 February, although they will need to admit that general inflation pressures have declined and the economy underperformed, making any promise of higher-for-longer a harder sell to markets. The next key release in New Zealand is the 4Q jobs report on 6 February. Until then, expect volatile Chinese sentiment and USD dynamics to drive NZD performance. Even in the case of an RBNZ dovish shift, we like the chances of a higher NZD/USD beyond the short term as the Kiwi dollar benefits from a broader USD decline and Fed rate cuts. Our year-end target is 0.64.