DXY

It's another video by Luke Suddards, don't hesitate to get to know about topics covered in this video, eg. EURUSD, EURGBP, USDJPY, UKOIL and AUDJPY.

S&P 500 refused further downside, tech caught fire, and credit markets staged a risk-on reversal. The bond upswing is the most important element – Powell‘s testimony wasn‘t able to ignite further rise in yields at the moment.Couple that with continued energy surge, and we‘re looking at real assets being very favorably positioned here (relatively easiest gains ahead), and that has profitable consequences for oil, copper and precious metals bulls. Even cryptos like the fact that CPI didn‘t come above expectations.Stock market fate is though tied to the Treasuries and corporate bonds – keeping an eye on the tech sensitivity to both advancing and retreating yields is of paramount importance, with financials not sticking higher as a sore thumb among other S&P 500 sectors being the other.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookFresh attempt at the lows was repelled, and the bulls aren‘t looking too spooked. Market breadth hasn‘t plunged to new lows, and is being slowly improved. It looks like we‘re about to keep moving up before the bears return.Credit MarketsHYG reversal looks credible, even if the volume was lower. It‘s risk on as HYG outperformed – the next question is how would it fare when yields rise again.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver position is improving, and I like it that miners keep coming alive. As written yesterday, the stage is set for upswing continuation till we break out of the very long consolidation.Crude OilCrude oil is performing just right – breaking higher from the prior flag-like structure, and simultaneously being inspired by the oil stocks example – $80 resistance has been decisively taken out.CopperLooking at today‘s price action, the time of copper playing catch up to the other commodities has arrived already – the bears indeed aren‘t likely to enjoy much success over the coming months.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are turning a corner, but animal spirits aren‘t there now – are cryptos more aware of the coming liquidity challenges? The rebound is lacking fervor still.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround succeeded, and markets are choosing to ignore the hawkish Fed and high inflation data. That‘s all good for commodities and then precious metals, but would catch up with stocks over time – in the sense that paper assets would underperform. For now, the S&P 500 bears have been repelled, and it would take a fresh round of higher yields forcing tech down, to knock the 500-strong index lower, which isn‘t likely to happen today. Overall, we‘re looking at still a good year in stocks (check the Latest Highlights for big picture picks), but 2H 2022 would be calmer than the prior 180 days.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCHF tests daily support The US dollar plunged after December’s CPI slowed down to 0.5% from 0.8% in November. Despite a swift recovery from the daily support at 0.9100, price action came under pressure once again at December’s supply area (0.9280). The dive below 0.9180 then 0.9140 is a sign of liquidation as buyers rush to the exit. As the greenback revisits the critical support at 0.9100, an oversold RSI may attract some buying interest. The former demand area around 0.9200 is now the first resistance level. XAUUSD looks to break out Gold edged higher as the US dollar softened across the board. The precious metal has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 1830. This level used to be a support from last November’s sell-off. The recovery above the psychological level of 1800 shows the bulls’ commitment to keeping the price afloat. A break above the supply zone would force the sell-side to cover and trigger an extended rally towards the previous peak at 1870. On the downside, 1800 has turned into a fresh support. USOIL continues upward WTI crude climbed higher after a larger-than-expected fall in US inventories. A close above the daily resistance at 79.00 was a strong bullish sign. Following a brief pause, the rally accelerated above 80.40. Sentiment remains upbeat and the bulls are keen to buy the dip during a pullback. A breach above 82.20 would clear the path to the peak at 85.00. An overbought RSI may cause a temporary retreat. In that case, trend-followers could be looking to jump in near the closest support at 81.20.

MRNA shares slump on Tuesday after a strong bounce on Monday. FXStreet had called the Monday bounce as likely to fail. Moderna needs to find a new revenue source as covid likely to fade. Moderna (MRNA) shares failed to rally on Tuesday despite Fed Chair Powell talking calmly to Capitol Hill and soothing most equities in the process. Risk was back on and rate hikes are also likely on, this time in March. Powell has carefully mapped out the strategy so as not to surprise markets, and despite yields rising slightly, tech continued to bounce on Tuesday. However, Moderna shares slumped. Moderna (MRNA) stock news Shares in Moderna closed over 5% lower at $221.39 on Tuesday. Many traders are asking why, when all major indices closed higher. Mainstream media have been trotting out the rotation line, which is a neat excuse for, "We don't really know why that happened, so let us just compare it to something else." The fact as always is to do with momentum and trends. Moderna has been falling, and this latest fall is symptomatic of waning investor interest as covid looks to fade. Moderna is hugely over-reliant on its covid vaccine for income. Yes, it has a decent pipeline, but nothing else can come close to matching the revenue generation of its covid vaccine. This is the big problem. Pfizer is much more diversified and a larger company with multiple revenue streams. Moderna (MRNA) is not in this league. It may get there one day, but in the meantime it will face revenue generation challenges. Take a look at the Moderna development pipeline here. It is impressive but nothing that looks either imminent or significant in terms of replacing covid vaccine revenue. Covid is/was a once-in-a-century event (fingers crossed). Moderna (MRNA) stock forecast There is nothing significant in Monday's move despite MRNA shares closing 9% higher. We outlined this in our article earlier in the week and remain bearish on Moderna. The trend is in place as Monday failed to break above $259, so we remain with lower lows and lower highs. $259 is the pivot for the short term. $188.41 is the first target with $200 a big psychological level along the way. There is a pattern here: declining Relative Strength Index (RSI), declining Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and declining stock price. We have a volume gap from $200 until $180. There is more downside in our view unless MRNA shares close above $259. Moderna (MRNA) chart, daily

S&P 500 sold off only a little in the wake of CPI data – probably celebrating that the figure wasn‘t 8% but only 7%. As if that weren‘t uncomfortable already – and the Fed wants to field accelerated taper, and perhaps even four quarter-point rate hikes to tame it? Oh, and perhaps also balance sheet reduction through not reinvesting proceeds from matured bonds and notes as talked on Monday – sure, that will do the trick. Looking at Treasuries over the prior two days shows that the Fed isn‘t being questioned. Value defends the high ground while tech rallies – Monday‘s fear with its brief return Tuesday, is in the rear-view mirror, compacency returning, and VIX again below 18. Prior upswing consolidation right next, is the most likely action for S&P 500. The real gains though are being made elsewhere – in crude oil and copper. With commodities back on fire, these two have certainly greater appreciation potential next than stocks or cryptos – so, long live our open longs there! The red metal has defied base metals intraday consolidation yesterday, and that has consequences for inflation trades – silver is waiting in the wings. To give you an idea how mispriced the risk of persistently unpleasant inflation is, yesterday‘s CPI coming only in line with expectations, caused inflation expectations to decline… At least the dollar took a rightful breather – its prior sideways consolidation has been broken to the downside. Currencies are starting to figure out inflation, and just how far and inadequate Fed‘s promise to take on it, has been... Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Daily consolidation of prior strong gains that‘s likely to go on today – stocks are making up their mind as to where next in the very short run now that the bears had been repelled. Credit Markets HYG is likewise looking to need some time to move higher next – volume is declining, and a brief sideways move is most likely now. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are still sideways to up – not down. The pressure to go higher is building up, waiting for the Fed miscalculation, or perception of the consequencies of its upcoming action. The faith in the central bank isn‘t yet really shaken. Crude Oil Crude oil finds it easiest to keep rising – the technical and fundamental conditions are in place, and oil stocks will continue to be the leading S&P 500 performers. Copper Copper is starting to play catch up to the other commodities finally – it‘ll be a rocky ride, but the red metal has waken up, and cast a clear verdict on inflation that has to seep into other markets next. Will take time, but we‘ll get there. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum didn‘t convince on the upside, and with no dovish surprise on the horizon, the path of least resistance probably remains down for now. Summary S&P 500 turnaround is getting cemented, and worries about the hawkish Fed or inflation look to be momentarily receding. Not even the PPI is waking up the markets – the focus seems to be on measly 0.1% undershoot. Ironic, pathetic. While stocks keep on moving in a tight range, and still want to keep on appreciating modestly, the real action is happening in the commodities, to be followed by precious metals. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  “It’s my party and I’ll fall if I want to”, sang gold and kept its word. Although the dollar weakened, gold seemed reluctant to take advantage of it. Now that was a big decline in the USD Index! What made gold yawn and why is it declining today? Because it doesn’t want to rally. I’ve been writing this over and over again, and yet I’ll write it once more. Markets don’t move in a straight line up or down, and periodic corrections are natural. However, the way markets interact during those corrections tells us a lot about what’s likely to take place next, at least in the case of some markets. The USD Index declined quite visibly yesterday and in today’s overnight trading. The key questions are: so what, and if that was completely unexpected. Starting with the latter, it wasn’t unexpected. It’s something in tune with gold’s long-term chart. When the weekly RSI (based on the weekly price changes) for the USD Index hit 70, I wrote the following: Also, please note that the recent medium-term rally has been calmer than any major upswing witnessed over the last 20 years, where the USD Index’s RSI has hit 70. I marked the recent rally in the RSI with an orange rectangle, and I did the same with the second-least and third-least volatile of the medium-term upswings. The sharp rallies in 2008 and 2014 were of much larger magnitudes. And in those historical analogies, the USD Index continued its surge for some time without suffering any material corrections. As a result, the short-term outlook is more of a coin flip. Consequently, the current decline is not unexpected, it’s rather normal. I marked additional situations on the above chart with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. I marked those declines in the RSI with blue rectangles, and I did the same thing for the current decline. As you can see, the size of the move lower is currently analogous to previous short-term corrections that were then followed by higher prices. This means that it’s quite likely over or very close to being over, and the medium-term rally can return any day now. Moving back to USD’s short-term chart, we see that the USD Index just (in overnight trading, so the move is not even close to being confirmed) moved a little below USDX’s rising support line based on the previous June and October 2021 lows. At the same time, the USDX is slightly below its late-2020 top and slightly above its November 2021 top. In light of the situation on the long-term USDX chart (as discussed above), this combination of support levels is likely to trigger a rebound and the continuation of the medium-term rally. At the beginning of 2021, I wrote that the year was likely to be bullish for the USD Index, and my forecast for gold (and the rest of the precious metals sector) was bullish – against that of almost every one of my colleagues. The USD Index ended 2021 about 6% higher, gold was down about 3.5%, silver was down almost 12%, the GDX ETF was down by about 9.5%, and the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior mining stocks, my primary tool for shorting the precious metals sector in 2021 – I wasn’t shorting gold at any point in 2021) was down by about 21%. What about this year? It’s a tough call to say how the entire year will go, but it seems to me that the USD Index will move higher, and we’ll see both in the PMs: a massive decline, and then a huge rally. It’s very likely to be a year to remember for anyone interested in trading gold, silver, and/or mining stocks and/or investing in them. Let’s get back to the current situation. The USD Index declined to fresh 2022 lows – well below the previous January lows, and also below the December and late-November lows. How did gold respond? Gold rallied – but just by a mere $8.80. While gold got close to its early-January high, it didn’t manage to move above it. 2022 is still a down year for gold. Also, gold is clearly below its November 2021 highs, when it was trading close to $1,900. Is gold showing strength here? Absolutely not. Gold is showing the opposite of strength. It’s weak and unwilling to react to the USD’s weakness. That’s exactly what I want to see as a bearish indication if I plan on entering a short position in the precious metals sector or when I’m timing an exit of a long position, or as a confirmation of a bearish narrative in general. So, yes, of course I want to say that yesterday’s rally in gold was a bearish development. That’s the case, because gold should have rallied so much more, given what happened in the USD Index. Today’s overnight action makes the bearish case even clearer. The USDX is down a bit, but gold is down too, anyway. It simply doesn’t want to rally. Gold wants to decline instead. Mining stocks and silver behaved similarly to gold yesterday – they didn’t move to, let alone above, their previous 2022 highs. Consequently, they confirm the indications for the gold vs. USD dynamic – they don’t point to something else. Summing up, the outlook for silver, gold, and mining remains bearish for the medium term, and this week’s rally seems to be nothing more than a counter-trend breather. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

GameStop stock continues to edge lower with little momentum. GME shares slide to $128, nearly 2% lower on Wednesday. GME stock is down 30% over the last three months and 13% this year. GameStop (GME) is reaching a key juncture. Now that the Fed has seemingly performed its magic act of raising rates and keeping markets happy, it is time to see if meme stocks can benefit from a more risk-on tone in equities. Meme stocks are all about momentum, not valuation, and there have been worrying signs for the last quarter. Small lot trades have been decreasing, and these are often used as an indicator of retail activity. Call option volumes have also decreased, another meme stock feature used widely by retail traders. Finally, the economy is nearly fully open, and the Omicron variant is milder. Will meme stocks ever recapture their preeminence of this time last year when they ruled the airwaves? GameStop (GME) was the number one topic on CNBC, and every other major financial news outlet. This year, so far, it barely warrants a mention. Momentum is worrying, and that is all meme stocks have to support them. GameStop (GME) stock news Today, January 13, marks the exact one-year anniversary of the first huge pop in the GME stock price. On January 13, 2021, GME stock spiked 57%, having been near 100% intraday, and set in motion the saga as we know it. That took GME shares from $20 to nearly $40 before closing back at $31.40. Many of us, myself included, thought this was madness when we took a close look at the company. Now if you got the chance to buy stock in GME at $40, you would jump at it. This is an example of how price alters the perception of value and why retailers have constant sales. Technically, the double top has been the problem here. GME put in a double top on November and December last year that has played out perfectly. The slide though has continued past the target. $118 is now key, and breaking below sees volume dry up and a likely move to $70. Breaking $160 to $167 is needed to change the view to a more bullish stance in our opinion. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

Fundamental and technical factors on the dollar locally give opposite signals. However, after a long period of strengthening the American currency, a corrective DXY pullback looks like a logical short-term prospect. On Wednesday, the US dollar came under pressure, the sharpest loss since last May and coming out of a prolonged consolidation. The dollar index retreated below 95 for the first time in two months. EURUSD surpassed 1.1400, trading at 1.1440 at the time of writing, having consolidated beyond the narrow range where the pair had spent the previous almost two months. Often such a decisive move out of the range is followed by a further breakout move, which we may well see in the coming days. The Dollar Index closed below the 50-day moving average on Tuesday and made a further move lower on Wednesday. The fall out of the range gave an informal start to the correction after the rally from May through most of November and the sideways movement in December. A potential target for such a pullback is seen in the 93.50-94.00 area. Near 94 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the dollar's move amplitude in 2021 and the starting point of the last rally in November. Near 93.50, the peak area of the index last year could be equally strong support. It hardly makes sense to say now that we are seeing the start of a big wave of dollar decline, as solid fundamentals support its growth. It looks like Fed members started a competition on whose expectations and comments are the most hawkish, and consumer inflation has given little reason to change the rhetoric. Among the latest comments is Powell's reassurance that the economy can cope with rate hikes. Fighting inflation is a top priority for the US central bank. Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, predicts a first rate hike as early as March. This practically rules out a pause between the end of balance buying and the first policy tightening. Furthermore, there are increasing signs that rate increases can continue to occur more frequently than once a quarter, as was the case in the previous tightening cycle. Many other central banks in developed countries are not yet prepared to tighten their policies as vigorously, which generally creates a sustained pull towards the USD on the interest rate differential in its favour.

US 100 revisits major support The Nasdaq 100 faltered after an unexpected rise in US initial jobless claims. The tech index bounced off the demand zone around 15200 which used to be a resistance on the daily chart. A bullish divergence revealed a slowdown in the sell-off momentum. The latest break above 15820 prompted some sellers to cover but came under pressure at 15980. After intraday traders took profit, 15200 is a critical support to keep the rebound relevant. A deeper correction would send the price to 14900. EURGBP stuck in bearish trend The euro rose after ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the inflation spike may last longer than projected. Nonetheless, the bearish sentiment still prevails after the pair failed to hold on to 0.8370. The former support has now turned into a resistance. The current consolidation could be a distribution phase and a drop below 0.8325 could send the price to February 2020’s lows near 0.8290. On the upside, the bulls have the challenging task of lifting offers around 0.8370 and then 0.8415 before they could attract more followers. XAGUSD tests major resistance Silver extends its recovery on the back of a weak US dollar. The metal saw support at the psychological level of 22.00. A break above the resistance at 22.80 and then an acceleration to the upside indicates strong buying interest. An overbought RSI has temporarily held the rally back. The bulls are testing the daily resistance at 23.40. A breakout could shake sellers out and trigger a reversal above 24.00. On the downside, buyers could be lurking around 22.60 in case of a pullback.

The US Federal Reserve has recently taken steps to communicate a change in future policy – suggesting raising interest rates and acting more aggressively to combat inflation. Throughout the last few weeks of 2021 and early 2022, these comments and posturing by the US Fed have created some very big downside price moves in the US major indexes. As a result, the US markets' volatility levels (VIX) have moved to a recent average between 17~21 – nearly 3x historical normal levels.US Fed Likely To Move Very Slowly On RatesOne thing that I believe has become evident to many people is that we have moved past the COVID stimulus conversations of the past 24+ months. Inflation, rising prices, constricted supply-chains, and an excess of capital throughout many global markets appear to have shifted how the US Fed interprets future risks. The Fed is telegraphing these concerns to investors very clearly right now, which means traders/investors are shifting their focus away from high-flying Growth stocks.Even though traders are attempting to shift capital away from certain risky sectors in the US and global markets, I still believe we have about 60 to 120+ days before the bigger market shift takes place.The US Federal Reserve will likely start addressing inflationary concerns by reducing their balance sheet assets – not by aggressively raising interest rates. I feel the US Fed will navigate Q1:2022 and Q2:2022 by reducing balance sheet assets while allowing the global supply-chain issues to attempt to resolve themselves. By June/July 2022, or later, I believe the Fed may start to consider rate increases as a means to slow inflation.Fed Comments Shift Investor Sentiment – Metals In Focus For Later 2022This move away from Dovish/easy-money policies will push traders to consider more traditional hedge investments – like Gold and Silver. I'm sure you've read some comments over the past 24+ months about Gold being an extremely undervalued asset as the US Fed poured trillions of stimulus dollars into the economy? These comments were made concerning the fact that Gold rallied from $1450 in 2019 to almost $2100 in 2020 – over 12 months (over +43%). Could a big move in Gold/Silver happen again in 2022 or 2023?My research suggests a Double Pennant/Flag formation in Gold suggests the $1675 support level becomes critical soon. It also indicates a Breakout/Breakdown move may start to happen before March or April 2022 – near the APEX of the current Pennant/Flag formation.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The key APEX range is currently between $1785 and $1830. This represents a very tight price range where Gold may attempt to consolidate as we move towards the March/April Apex. My research suggests a move to levels near $1740 to $1750 may happen just before the Apex Breakout/Breakdown initiates. So, watch for a bit of downside price volatility in Gold before the end of February 2022.Junior Gold Miners May Rally +45%, Or More, On A Gold Price RallyThe Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) Weekly Chart shows a firm support level near $37.35 that should act as a floor for price. My research suggests the next 45+ days will see GDXJ prices stay below $44 to $45 – trading in a reasonably tight range before starting to rally higher near the end of February 2022.I believe Metals and Miners are aligning for a late February 2022 or Q2:2022 rally. The reason is that I believe the positioning by the US Fed, and expectations related to later 2022 (a mid-term election year), may prompt quite a bit of concern for the US and global equities. This will likely push investors and traders into “old-school” hedge instruments – like Gold and Silver.That means Junior Gold and Silver Miners maybe about 55+ days away from an explosive upside price trend.SILJ May Rally +70% to +100%, Or More, On Fed ActionsNear the end of 2022, I published a research article highlighting the incredible opportunity in Silver – focusing on how the Gold/Silver ratio had recently reached another peak level and had started to decline: Fear May Drive Silver More Than 60% Higher In 2022. This move suggests the disparity between the price of Gold to the price of Silver shows Gold is appreciated (and holding greater value) than Silver over the past few years.The COVID virus event, and the subsequent Fed/Government stimulus, shifted investors/traders focus away from precious metals and into the equities market speculative rally. Now that the US Fed is starting to warn of more aggressive rate increases and other actions, precious metals are suddenly much more important as a hedge against future risks.This SILJ Weekly Chart highlights the incredible base level, near $12, that continues to offer traders a fantastic hedge against a sudden Fed move. Using a simple Fibonacci Price Extension, we can see a $20 target level (+61%) and a $25.64 target level (100%). If the $12 level holds as a base/support, SILJ may be one of the easiest and best hedges against a sudden Fed move right now.The US Federal Reserve is, in my opinion, playing with fireThe COVID Virus Event pushed global debt levels higher by more than $19.5 Trillion Dollars (Source: Bloomberg ). The rush to attempt to save the global economy has created a massive surge in global debt levels – pushing the global debt to GDP level to well above 356% (Source: Axios).Why is this so important right now? Because the US Federal Reserve is talking about an attempt to move interest rates and Fed decision-making back to near-normal levels. In my opinion, this was the one fault of Alan Greenspan in 2006-07. The thought that we can raise rates to “near normal level” at any time when we have grown debt levels excessively throughout the world is failed thinking and ignorant, in my opinion.The US Federal Reserve is trapped and almost backed into a corner. I believe the US Fed will find any rate increases above 1.00 before the end of 2023 will significantly disrupt the global speculative bubble. Any attempt to move rates to levels near or above 2.00 would represent a nearly +2000% rate increase in less than 12 to 24 months. If you want to see a shock to the global markets where global debt to GDP is closing in on 400%, try raising the FFR by more than 2000% over a short period of time. That is what I call “playing with FIRE.”.(Source: Axios)2022 and 2023 will be filled with significant market trends and increased volatility. Right now, traders and investors need to understand the global markets are attempting to quickly transition away from a speculative/growth phase as the US Federal Reserve attempts to telegraph future rate increases. So it's time to start thinking about how to prepare for unknowns and how to protect your capital more efficiently.Growth sectors and US major indexes may continue to move higher for the next 30 to 60+ days, but my research suggests Q2:2022 may represent a "change in thinking" related to a late-2022 Fed shift. We are starting to see the markets move away from the speculative bubble-type trending we saw in 2020 and early 2021. Keep your eyes open and learn how to prepare for the big trends over the next 3+ years. The Fed is playing with fire right now. One wrong move and the markets could start a drastic price correction/reversion.Finding The Right Trading StrategiesIf you have struggled with finding opportunities over the past year or so and want to know which are the hottest sectors, or how to protect and grow your capital, then please take a minute to review my Total ETF Portfolio – Triple-Strategy Trading Plan to help you profit from these big market transitions.Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

  Inflation! The Republic is crumbling under attacks by the ruthless Supply Lord, Count Shortage. Dearness is everywhere. Will gold save the galaxy? If George Lucas were to make a movie about 2021 instead of Jedi knights, he would probably call it Revenge of the Supply. After all, last year will be remembered as the period of semiconductor shortages, production bottlenecks, disrupted value chains, delayed deliveries, surging job vacancies, rising inflation, and skyrocketing energy prices. It could be a shocking discovery for Keynesian economists, who focus on aggregate demand and believe that there is always slack in the economy, but it turned out that supply matters too! As a reminder, state governments couldn’t deal with the pandemic more smartly and introduced lockdowns. Then, it turned out – what a surprise! – that the shutdown of the economy, well, shut down the economy, so the Fed and the banking system boosted the money supply, while Congress passed a mammoth fiscal stimulus, including sending checks to just about every American. In other words, 2021 showed us that one cannot close and reopen the economy without any negative consequences, as the economy doesn’t simply return to the status quo. After the reopening of the economy, people started to spend all the money that was “printed” and given to them. Hence, demand increased sharply, and supply couldn’t keep up with the boosted spending. It turned out that economic problems are not always related to the demand side that has to be “stimulated”. We’ve also learned that there are supply constraints and that production and delivery don’t always go smoothly. The contemporary economy is truly global, complex, and interconnected – and the proper working of this mechanism depends on the adequate functioning of its zillion elements. Thus, shit happens from time to time. This is why it’s smart to have some gold as a portfolio insurance against tail risks. Evergiven, the ship that blocked the Suez Canal, disrupting international trade, was the perfect illustration. However, the importance of supply factors goes beyond logistics and is related to regulations, taxes, incentives, etc. Instead of calls for injecting liquidity during each crisis, efficiency, reducing the disincentives to work and invest, and unlocking the supply shackles imposed by the government should become the top economic priority. Another negative surprise for mainstream economists in 2021 was the revenge of inflation. For years, central bankers and analysts have dismissed the threat of inflation, considering it a phenomenon of the past. In the 1970s, the Fed was still learning how to conduct monetary policy. It made a few mistakes, but is much smarter today, so stagflation won’t repeat. Additionally, we live in a globalized economy with strong product competition and weak labor unions, so inflation won’t get out of control. Indeed, inflation was stubbornly low for years, despite all the easy monetary policy, and didn’t want to reach the Fed’s target of 2%, so the US central bank changed its regime to be more flexible and tolerant of inflation. It was in 2020, just one year before the outbreak of inflation. The Fed completely didn’t expect that – which shows the intellectual poverty of this institution – and called it “transitory”. Initially, inflation was supposed to be short-lived because of the “base effects”, then because of the “supply bottlenecks”. Only in November, the Fed admitted that inflation was more broad-based and would be more persistent than it previously thought. Well, better late than never! What does the revenge of supply and inflation imply for the gold market? One could expect that gold would perform better last year amid all the supply problems and a surge in inflation. We’ve learned that gold doesn’t always shine during inflationary times. The reason was that supply shortages didn’t translate into a full-blown economic crisis. On the contrary, they were caused by a strong rebound in demand; and they contributed mainly to higher inflation, which strengthened the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and expectations of higher interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. On the other hand, we could say as well that gold prices were supported by elevated inflation and didn’t drop more thanks to all the supply disruptions and inflationary threats. After all, during the economic expansion of 2011-2015 that followed the Great Recession, gold plunged about 45%, while between the 2020 peak and the end of 2021, the yellow metal lost only about 13%, as the chart below shows. Hence, the worst might be yet to come. I don’t expect a similarly deep decline as in the past, especially given that the Fed’s tightening cycle seems to be mostly priced in, but the real interest rates could normalize somewhat. Thus, I have bad news for the gold bulls. The supply crunch is expected to moderate in the second half of 2022, which would also ease inflationary pressure. To be clear, inflation won’t disappear, but it may reach a peak this year. The combination of improvement on the supply side of the economy, with inflation reaching its peak, and with a more hawkish Fed doesn’t bode well for gold. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

  Powell testified before the Senate. He didn’t say anything new, but gold rallied a bit. “We have totally screwed up inflation and now we are in deep trouble,” admitted Jerome Powell during his appearance before the Senate. OK, he didn’t formulate it exactly that way, but it was the message of his testimony. Powell admitted that the Fed wrongly expected a faster easing of supply disruptions and thought that price pressures would be much lower by now. As a consequence, inflation was believed to be only ‘transitory’. Unfortunately, that’s not what happened. “The supply-side constraints have been very durable. We are not seeing the kind of progress that all forecasters thought we’d be seeing by now. We did foresee a strong spike in demand. We didn’t know it would be so focused on goods,” saidPowell. As a result of the Fed’s inaction, inflation has risen 7% in 2021, the fastest pace since February 1982, as the chart below shows. After conducting very complicated calculations, Powell admitted that “inflation is running very far above target.” Bold deduction, Sherlock! Such high inflation is indeed a troublesome and even central bankers realize that. This is why Powell stated that “the economy no longer needs or wants the very accommodative policies we have had in place,” and that “we will use our tools to support the economy and a strong labor market and to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.” However, there is a problem here. The main tool the Fed has to fight inflation is raising the federal funds rate, but hiking interest rates may hamper economic expansion and even trigger the next financial crisis. As Powell admitted, “if inflation does become too persistent, that will lead to much tighter monetary policy and that could lead to a recession.” Thus, the central bank is between a rock and a hard place, between high inflation and the risk of slowing economic expansion or even of an economic crisis.   Implications for Gold What does Powell’s testimony imply for the gold market? Well, theoretically not much, as it didn’t include any major surprises. However, Powell sounded quite hawkish. For example, he downplayed the economic consequences of the current surge in coronavirus cases, and said that it’s likely not changing the Fed’s plans to tighten its monetary policy this year. These plans are relatively bold for this year: “We are going to end asset purchases in March. We will raise rates. And at some point this year will let the balance sheet runoff,” Powell said. However, it seems that Powell sounded less hawkish than investors were afraid of. Given such worries, the lack of any surprises could be dovish. This is at least what gold’s performance suggests. As the chart below shows, Powell’s testimony triggered a small rally and revived optimism in the gold market. That’s for sure encouraging. After all, gold jumped above a key level of $1,800, catching some breath, but it’s too early to call a major reversal in the gold market. The yellow metal would have to sustain itself above $1,820 and then surpass $1,850, or even higher levels, to trumpet a bullish breakout. There are still several headwinds for gold. First of all, the monetary hawks haven’t struck yet. They are growing in strength, as several regional bank presidents have recently called for a rate hike as soon as in March. Such calls may strengthen the expectations of rate increases, boosting bond yields, and creating downward pressure for gold prices. We’ll find out soon whether it will happen or not, as the January FOMC meeting is in two weeks, and it could be a groundbreaking event in the gold market. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  Gas prices surged in stride and then the market plunged back down like a yoyo thrown from a balcony. What caused such a reaction? At the beginning of the week, Henry Hub natural gas futures closed above the $4 psychological mark on the NYMEX for the first time this new year as a result of robust US LNG exports and weather-driven demand. Overall, the prices on the February contract were still trading on a longer-term downtrend, which is why I was especially looking for the best spot to initiate a short-selling trade rather than jumping on a galloping horse. Meanwhile, some of our subscribers – always free to scalp the market (or to take more aggressive counter-trend trades towards our suggested entries) – were just getting ready to go short around the $4.876.5.079 resistance zone (highlighted by a yellow band), with a stop placed just above the higher $5.400 level (represented by a red dotted line) and targets at $4.568 and $4.213 (also marked by two green dotted lines), according to my last projections. As a result, gas prices indeed surged in stride (performing a high-speed rally up to the 4.879 that got almost immediately stopped by the yellow band – thus triggering our entry). It was just before the market plunged back down like a yoyo thrown from the third floor and wheeling on the first-floor balcony, considering our targets to be located on both the second and first floors. This sudden reversal move was certainly triggered on the one hand, technically by aggressive traders taking profits, but also , more fundamentally, by a slowdown in gas demand as the purchases for colder weeks were already anticipated by the commercials (large MNCs hedging their risk, oil and gas majors, utility companies, etc.); the latter having undoubtedly more impact and weight than we, or larger speculators, on those markets. Thus, I would say the key is trying to think like them to get some understanding of trading energies. Trading Charts Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the above mentioned levels of our trade plan: Chart – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, 4H chart) In summary, my trading approach has led me to suggest some short trades around potential key resistances since this sudden surge in natural gas offered a great opportunity for the bears to enter short whilst aiming towards specific projected targets. Some of you – more aggressive traders – may also enjoy jumping on galloping horses. However, for such trades, the timeframe would be much shorter and difficult to make everyone take advantage of them, due to the volatility in the markets and the fact that I always try to provide trades with optimal entry levels meeting a profitable risk-to-reward ratio. You are always free – at your own risk and time schedule – to scalp the markets in a more aggressive way (counter-trend trading) towards a projected entry area if you feel comfortable doing so. However, sometimes, the “FOMO” (Fear-Of-Missing-Out) voices might tell you to trade when you shouldn’t, so just be aware that over-trading could also lead you to take more risky positions – refraining from trading all the time is also part of trading – a mind game that you will have to rapidly master! If you don’t want to miss any future trading alerts, make sure to look at our Premium section. Stay tuned – have a nice weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has been cruising between 21-23 for the past seven days - in the extreme fear territory, finding itself in the middle of that range on Monday. Meanwhile, the value of all coins tracked by CoinMarketCap fell 0.5% in the last 24 hours to $2.05 trillion. By and large, a sideways range, $2.0-$2.1 trillion, has also been prevalent here for the past seven days, marking a lull in bull and bear fighting. It remains to be seen whether this signifies fatigue from the past months' turbulent moves or preparations for a new strong momentum. The local victory is on the bears' side, dominating the top coins now, where losses range from -0.8% for Bitcoin to -5.7% for Polkadot over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin failed to build on last week's upside momentum and is back in the $41-42K consolidation area, approaching it from above. A decline from these levels in the coming days will be a development of the downtrend since November, reversing the BTCUSD from the upper boundary of the downtrend channel. A bearish scenario suggests a dip towards $31K by the end of this week to close the July gap. But the door for such a decline will only open after the bulls surrender the $40K level they managed to hold in September and earlier in January. Ether has also encountered a sell-off in its attempts to rise above $3.3K. The 200-day moving average level is now acting as significant resistance. Bitcoin and Ether, which have a combined capitalisation of almost 60% of all cryptocurrencies, show worryingly negative dynamics. At the same time, their share has been declining since late last year. We are seeing either a shift in investor attitudes towards the sector leaders or certain inertia of altcoins compared to the flagships. Right now, it seems that crypto enthusiasts are not at all opposed to the changing landscape. However, as is often the case in nature, such changes rarely go smoothly.      

Sandbox investors are not returning to the scene as bulls refrain from erasing Thursday’s fade SAND price action enters a squeeze with bulls being pushed against the $4.72 level and stopped out on a break below. Expect a possible dip further to the downside if no help comes from global markets. The Sandbox (SAND) looked to be starting an uptrend after the perfect technical bounce off the monthly S1 support level at $4.19. Instead, the rally was short-lived and underwent a fade yesterday with investors reluctant to pick price up off the floor of the $4.72 historical level. If global markets don’t rally today, expect a dip to the downside with bulls getting stopped out and a nosedive back towards $4.19. Pressure is mounting with bulls cut short and pushed back at the entry This week, the Sandbox was on the same page as most other cryptocurrencies, having found support and delivered promising signs of a new rally that could set the tone for 2022. But instead, markets and participants are having issues reading between the lines on central bank tightening from the FED – and what that means for equity investments and portfolio rebalancing. With that, cryptocurrencies took a step back yesterday, and SAND failed to pare back yesterday’s incurred losses. SAND bulls look to have fled the scene as bears push price-action back down against the $4.72 level that holds some historical importance in SAND’s brief existence. A break below would trigger another sharp sell-off as stops run, and sell volume gets enlarged. A test or break below the monthly S1 at $4.19 could then follow.. SAND/USD daily chart Although European equities are red, US futures are mildly green, so sentiment could quickly shift once the US cash trading session starts. This will see a bounce off the historical level and a swing to the upside, touching the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $5.60 or the monthly pivot just above. That would preposition SAND bulls for an attack on the red descending trend line in the week to come.

S&P 500 didn‘t like latest weak data releases, but finished well off intraday lows. This reversal though leaves quite something to be desired – and it‘s sectoral composition doesn‘t pass the smell test entirely either. Yields continued to rise while HYG barely closed where it opened – that‘s not really risk-on. Cyclicals, and riskier parts of tech weren‘t visibly outperforming – the S&P 500 rally felt like a defensive bounce off some oversold levels. That‘s why it won‘t likely hold for long – I don‘t think we have seen the end of selling – more downside awaits. It‘s still correction time, even if 2022 is likely to end up around 5,150 – we‘re still in a bull market, and Big Tech would do well. For now though, rising yields are putting pressure – and they would continue to rise. As liquidity would no longer be added by the Fed by Mar, the question remains how much would funds coming out of the repo facilities and the overnight account at the Fed (think $2t basically) offset the intended tightening. Commodities aren‘t at all shaken, and Wednesday‘s positive copper move doesn‘t look to be an outlier – unlike Friday‘s decline that didn‘t correspond with other base metals. Even though it might be soothing to the pension funds, inflation rates aren‘t likely to come down to the usual massaged 2% during the next 2-3 years, no matter whether the Fed hikes by 0.25% 6 or 8 times. The persistently and unpleasantly 4-5% high CPI is likely to break the mainstream narrative, and stay with us for much longer than generally anticipated, which is only part of the reason why I am looking for gold to leave $1,870s very convincingly in the dust this year. Both yellow and black gold would rise in tandem, and the rising open crude oil profits (heavy long positions opened at $78) are part of the reason behind permanently elevated inflation ahead. The commodities upswing is also no longer tempered by the rising dollar. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The tech reversal could carry the daily weight of S&P 500 upswing – the daily weight only. I‘m not looking for this modest show of strength to hold. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t close strongly either – rising yields are taking their toll, and will continue doing so. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver downswing needn‘t be feared – while the metals are still sideways, the pressure to go up is building, and the dollar woes would be but the first catalyst (challenged faith in the Fed taming inflation would be next). Crude Oil Crude oil still finds it easiest to keep rising, and black gold could pause a little on the approach to $90 – the technical and fundamental upswing conditions are in place, and oil stocks will continue to be among the best S&P 500 performers. Copper Copper catch up was postponed a little – that‘s all. The decline wasn‘t a true reversal, and the red metal would take on $4.60 before too long again. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum still can‘t convince on the upside, and with no dovish surprise on the horizon, the path of least resistance probably remains down for now – today‘s session definitely confirms that. Summary S&P 500 upswing isn‘t to be trusted, and its defensive nature out of tune with bonds, is part of the reason why. The stock market correction has further to go, and while tech overall would do well in 2022, it has to decline first – that would set the stage for a good 2H advance. The early phase of the Fed tightening cycle belongs to the bears, and it would continue to be commodities and precious metals to weather the storms best. Long live the inflation trades. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCHF attempts to rebound The US dollar came under pressure after a contraction in December’s US retail sales. Strong selling pressure from the supply area around 0.9280 has pushed the pair all the way below the daily support at 0.9100. An oversold RSI triggered a buying-the-dips behavior but the rebound could be limited as sentiment tilted to the bearish side. The bulls will need to reclaim the support-turned-resistance at 0.9190 first. Otherwise, a new round of sell-off below 0.9090 could send the greenback to last August lows near 0.9020. NZDUSD seeks post-rally support The New Zealand dollar fell as risk sentiment subsided going into the weekend. The surge above the supply zone around 0.6850 has triggered a reversal fever after a month-long sideways action. As the RSI drops back into the neutrality area, buyers could be waiting to jump in at a discount. A pullback below 0.6840 has led to some profit-taking but as long as the price stays above 0.6780 the rebound is valid, or the kiwi could revisit the critical floor at 0.6700. A break above the recent high at 0.6890 would extend the rally to 0.6960. UK 100 consolidates gains The FTSE 100 finds support from the UK’s stronger-than-expected GDP. A break above the top of the previous consolidation range (7545) means a continuation of the current uptrend. Trend-followers may consider a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. Short-term sentiment remains bullish as long as the index is above 7470. A break above the immediate resistance at 7580 would extend the rally upward. A deeper retracement would test 7370 which used to be a major resistance from the double top on the daily chart.

S&P 500 gave up opening gains that could have lasted longer – but the bear is still strong, and didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Defeated during the first hour, the sellers couldn‘t make much progress, and credit markets confirm the grim picture. There is a but, though – quality debt instruments turned higher, and maintained much of their intraday gains.And that could be a sign – in spite of the bearish onslaught driving the buyers back to the basement before the closing bell – that more buying would materialize to close this week, with consequences for S&P 500 as well. I would simply have preferred to see rising yields once again, that would be a great catalyst of further stock market selling. Now, the wisest course of action looks to be waiting for the upcoming upswing (one that didn‘t develop during the Asian session really), to get exhausted.Remember my yesterday‘s words:(…) The rising yields are all about betting on a really, really hawkish Fed – just how far are the calls for not 25, but 50bp hike this Mar? Inflation is still resilient (of course) but all it takes is some more hawkish statements that wouldn‘t venture out of the latest narrative line.Anyway, the markets aren‘t drinking the kool-aid – the yield curve continues flattening, which means the bets on Fed‘s misstep are on. True, the tightening moves have been quite finely telegraphed, but the markets didn‘t buy it, and were focused on the Santa Claus (liquidity-facilitated) rally instead – therefore, my Dec 20 warning is on. The clock to adding zero fresh liquidity, and potentially even not rolling over maturing securities (as early as Mar?) is ticking.And the run to commodities goes on, with $85 crude oil not even needing fresh conflict in Eastern Europe – the demand almost at pre-corona levels leaving supply and stockpiles in the dust, is fit for the job.With SPX short profits off the table, crude oil consolidating, and cryptos having second thoughts about the decline continuation, it‘s been precious metals that stole the spotlight yesterday – really great moves across the board to enjoy!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 buyers are nowhere to be seen – what kind of reflexive rebound would we get next? The odds aren‘t arrayed for it to be reaching very high – yields are catching up even with financials...Credit MarketsHYG is likely to pause a little next, and the degree of its move relative to the quality debt instruments, would be telling. Rates are though going to keep rising, so keep looking for a temporary HYG stabilization only.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver keep catching fire, and are slowly breaking out of the unpleasantly long consolidation. The strongly bullish undertones are playing out nicely – these aren‘t yet the true celebrations.Crude OilCrude oil looks like it could pause a little here – the stellar run (by no means over yet) is attracting selling interest. The buyers are likely to pause for a moment over the next few days.CopperCopper is paring back on the missed opportunity to catch up – the red metal will be dragged higher alongside the other commodities, and isn‘t yet offering signs of true, outperforming strength.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum really are setting up a little breather, but I‘m not looking for bullish miracles to happen. Still, the buying interest was there yesterday, and that would influence the entry to the coming week (bullishly).SummaryS&P 500 upswing turned into a dead cat bounce pretty fast, and while we may see another attempt by the bulls, I think it would be rather short-lived. Think lasting a couple of days only. Not until there is a change in the credit markets, have the stock market bulls snowball‘s chance in hell. Commodities and especially precious metals, are well placed to keep reaping the rewards – just as I had written a week ago. For now, it‘s fun to be riding the short side in S&P 500 judiciously, and the time for another position opening, looks slowly but surely approaching. Let the great profits grow elsewhere in the meantime.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Gold soared as investors got scared by reports of an allegedly impending military conflict. Was it worth reacting sharply to geopolitical factors? Gold has been performing quite nicely in January. As the chart below shows, its price increased from $1,806 at the end of December to around $1,820 this week, strengthening its position above $1,800. Yesterday (January 19, 2022), gold prices went sharply higher, jumping above $1,840, as one can see in the chart below. What happened? Investors got scared of the Russian bear and inflationary hydra. President Biden predicted that Russia would move into Ukraine. The threat of invasion and renewal of a conflict weakened risk appetite among investors. To complete the geopolitical picture, this week, North Korea fired missiles again (on Monday, the country conducted its fourth missile test of the year), while terrorists attacked the United Arab Emirates with drones. The heightened risk aversion could spur some demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. The yellow metal tends to benefit from greater uncertainty. However, investors should remember that geopolitical risks usually cause only a short-lived reaction. Investors also recalled the ongoing global inflationary crisis. Some news helped them wake up. In the U.K., inflation surged 5.4% in December, the highest since March 1992. Meanwhile, in Canada, inflation jumped 4.8%, also the fastest pace in 30 years. Additionally, crude oil prices have jumped to around $86.5 per barrel, the highest value since 2014, as the chart below shows. The timing couldn’t be worse, as inflation is already elevated, while higher oil implies higher CPI in the future. Gold should, therefore, welcome the rise in oil prices. On the other hand, it could prompt the Fed to react more forcefully and aggressively to tighten its monetary policy.   Implications for Gold What does the recent mini-rally imply for the gold market? Well, it’s never a good idea to draw far-reaching conclusions from short-term moves, especially those caused by geopolitical factors. Risk-offs and risk-on sentiments come and go. However, let’s do justice to gold. It hit a two-months high, more and more boldly settling in above $1,800. All this happened despite rising bond yields. As the chart below shows, the long-term real interest rates have increased from about -1.0% at the end of 2021 to about -0.6%. Gold’s resilience in the face of rising interest rates is praiseworthy. Having said that, investors shouldn’t forget that 2022 will be a year of the Fed’s tightening cycle, rising interest rates, and also a certain moderation in inflation. All these factors could be important headwinds for gold this year. However, investors may underestimate how the Fed’s monetary policy will impact market conditions. After all, the Fed’s hawkish stance also entails some risks for the financial markets and the overall economy. Practically, each tightening cycle in the past has led to an economic crisis. As a reminder, after four hikes in 2018, the Fed had to reverse its stance and cut them in 2019. The Fed signaled not only a few hikes this year, but also a reduction of its balance sheet. Given the enormous indebtedness of the economy and Wall Street’s addiction to easy money, it might be too much to swallow. Importantly, when the Fed is focused on fighting inflation, its ability to help the markets will be limited. I thought that such worries would arise later this year, supporting gold, but maybe the gold market has already started to price in the possibility of economic turbulence triggered by the Fed’s tightening cycle. Anyway, next week, the FOMC will gather for the first time in 2022, and it could be an important, insightful event for the gold market. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

GameStop stock fails to ignite despite the gaming sector being in play. GameStop is a bystander retailer, while the big activity is game makers. GME stock remains bearish in our view despite a mid-week short squeeze attempt. GameStop (GME) stock surged in early January but has since slumped consistently. At least some volatility returned to the name. GameStop was the original meme stock but has been suffering of late as investors turn their backs on high growth and high-risk names. GameStop Stock News A pop of 7% on January 7 has been about as good as it gets so far this year for GameStop (GME) holders as the stock exhibits more signs of dwindling interest in the meme stock space. The Wall Street Journal did report on January 7 that GameStop was entering the NFT and cryptocurrency market. This has echoes of another meme stock, AMC. It may smack of desperation or even bad timing given the crypto and NFT craze has also retreated in line with meme stocks. Or it may be a shrewd move. Time will tell, but so far the shares have not given the news much traction. Interest did spike in GME on the back of the mega-deal from Microsoft (MSFT) offering up $69 billion in cash to buy Activision (ATVI), but GameStop is merely a powerless bystander in the acquisition fervor sweeping the gaming sector. GameStop (GME) jumped to the top of WallStreetBets mentions, but this has not seen the correlated share price uptick. In fact, GME shares are down 17% in a week. That takes losses so far for 2022 to nearly 30%. One year on and it does not look like history is going to repeat itself. Video game sales data out yesterday was not exactly comforting with the figure in December down 1% following November's 10% fall. GameStop Stock Forecast The chart is still highly bearish, which was triggered after the double-top formation. This played out and reached our $150 target and then some. Now GME has broken the $118 level, which brings $86 firmly into focus as the next major target. Obviously, $100 along the way will generate headlines, but this is purely psychological. We also note the volume gap from $110 to $70 that could accelerate the move. Bearish unless $160 is broken. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

  The S&P 500 index broke below its early December low. Are we in a new bear market or is this still just a downward correction? The broad stock market index lost 1.10% on Thursday following its Wednesday’s decline of around 1%. The S&P 500 index fell below the 4,500 level and it was the lowest since mid-October. Investors reacted to quarterly earnings releases and further Russia-Ukraine tensions. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. This morning the market is expected to open 0.4% lower and it will most likely extend the downtrend. The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,500-4,525, marked by the recent support level. On the other hand, the support level is now at around 4,450. The S&P 500 broke below an over month-long upward trend line this week, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Broke Below its Previous Lows Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. The market broke below its previous local lows along the 4,520 level. There was a chance that entering a long position would be justified here, but any short-term bullish scenario seems invalidated now. On the other hand, it may be too late to enter a short position right now, because of some clear technical oversold conditions. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% lower this morning, so it will likely extend a short-term downtrend. We may see another intraday rebound, but there have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Yesterday we’ve seen a convincing rally, but it failed and the market sold off to new lows. The coming quarterly earnings releases (next week we’ll have MSFT, AAPL, TSLA among others) remain a bullish factor for stocks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 reached yet another new low yesterday and it was the lowest since mid-October. Stocks will most likely bounce at some point, but any rally may be short-lived. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 gave up yet again the opening gains – the bear didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Buyers defeated during the first hours, and credit markets are once again leaning the bearish way. Risk-off rules even if long-dated Treasuries rose for a day. Tech investors are selling first, and asking questions later, with consumer discretionaries, financials, and also energy hit. The washout S&P 500 bottom is approaching, and our fresh short profits are growing...Talking profits, after a one-day consolidation in precious metals, time has come to cash in on crude oil gains before the decline questioning $86 – that‘s second outsized gains trade in a row there. Black gold won‘t likely be held down for too long, and the same goes for copper knocking on $4.60 for the third time shortly. Excellent for the bottom line.This is the season of real assets (commodities and precious metals), and of the stock market correction still playing out, and driving open crypto short profits alike. Much to enjoy across the board as my fresh portfolio performance chart (check out my homesite) reached a solid new high yesterday – it‘s one year today since I launched my site. Tremendous journey building on prior own strength – thank you very much!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 buyers still can‘t get their act together – the momentum remains to the downside until credit markets turn and tech bleeding stops. This can happen as early as Monday or Tuesday – I remain watching closely for signs of a high-confidence setup to perhaps take.Credit MarketsHYG pause didn‘t last long, and the volume keeps being elevated without credible signs of buying interest. What‘s more, the credit market posture is decidedly risk-off.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are likely to pause a little, the miners say – but the propensity to rise is there, even this early in the tightening cycle. I‘m looking for dips to be eagerly bought.Crude OilCrude oil looks like seeing the bullish resolve tested soon, and odds are the dip would be relatively quickly bought. Still, the pace of steep upswings is likely to slow down next, I say so even as I continue being medium-term bullish ($90 is doable).CopperCopper is paring back on the missed opportunity to catch up, and it‘s good the red metal managed to rise even if quite a few other commodities stalled. Waking up alongside silver, finally?Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum little breather is over, the bears did strike again – and it may not be over yet, really not.SummaryThe opening sentence of yesterday‘s summary proved very true, and even faster that I thought possible - „S&P 500 upswing turned into a dead cat bounce pretty fast, and while we may see another attempt by the bulls, I think it would be rather short-lived. Think lasting a couple of days only.“ With the bears in the driving seat overnight – on the heels of a risk-off turn in the credit markets – we‘re likely to witness today another selling attempt.Another yesterday mentioned conclusion remains true as well - „Commodities and especially precious metals, are well placed to keep reaping the rewards – just as I had written a week ago. For now, it‘s fun to be riding the short side in S&P 500 judiciously... Let the great profits grow elsewhere in the meantime.“ Let‘s just add that cryptos are making us smile today, too.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The precious metals still do pirouettes on the trading floor, but they can stumble in their choreography. The bears are just waiting for it. With the GDX ETF soaring on significant volume on Jan. 19, the senior miners had a renewed pep in their step. With gold, silver, and mining stocks all dancing to the same beat, the precious metals garnered all of the bullish attention. However, with the trio known to cut their performances short as soon as investors arrive, will the mood music remain so sanguine? Well, for one, the GDX ETF has a history of peaking when the crowd enters the party. For example, I marked with the blue vertical dashed lines and blue arrows below how large daily spikes in volume often coincide with short-term peaks. Moreover, with another ominous event unfolding on Jan. 19, historical data implies that we’re much closer to the top than the bottom. To explain, I wrote on Jan. 20: From the technical point of view, we just saw another day similar to the other days that I marked with vertical dashed lines and black arrows. Those days were either right at the tops or not far from them. As much as yesterday’s (7%!) rally looks bullish, taking a look at the situation from a broad perspective provides us with the opposite – bearish – implications. The zig-zag scenario is being realized as well. The GDX ETF moved to the upper border of the rising trend channel. Also, doesn’t it remind you of something? Hint: it happened at a similar time of the year. Yes, the current price/volume action is similar to what we saw in early 2021. The RSI was above 60, a short-term rally that was preceded by a bigger decline, and a strong daily rally on huge volume at the end of the corrective rally. We’ve seen it all now, and we saw it in early 2021. Please see below: What’s more, the senior miners’ fatigue is already present. For example, the GDX ETF declined by 1.40% on Jan. 20, and the index ended the session only $0.30 above its 2021 close. Likewise, the senior miners failed to rally above the upper trendline of their ascending channel (drawn with the blue lines above). As a result, the price action resembles an ABC zigzag pattern, and while the short-term outlook is less certain, the medium-term outlook is profoundly bearish. As further evidence, the HUI Index’s weekly chart provides some important clues. For example, despite the profound rally on Jan. 19, the index’s stochastic indicator still hasn’t recorded a buy signal. Moreover, the HUI Index dropped after reaching its 50-week moving average, and the ominous rejection mirrors 2013. Back then, the index approached its 50-week moving average, then suffered a pullback, and then suffered a monumental decline. As a result, is this time really different? Remember – history tends to rhyme, and this time the analogies from the past favor a bearish forecast for gold stocks. Turning to the GDXJ ETF, the junior miners were off to the races on Jan. 19. However, the size of the rally is actually smaller than what we witnessed in early 2021. Moreover, when the short-term sugar high ended back then, optimism turned to pessimism and the GDXJ ETF sank to new lows. Thus, with the junior miners’ 2021 story one of lower highs and lower lows, 2022 will likely result in more of the same. Please see below: Finally, the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) isn’t at levels that trigger a major reversal. The Index is now at 30. However, far from a medium-term bottom, the latest reading is still more than 20 points above the 2016 and 2020 lows. Likewise, when the BPGDM hit 30 in 2013, the HUI Index was already in the midst of its medium-term downtrend (similar to what we witnessed in 2021). However, the milestone was far from the final low. With material weakness persisting and a lasting bottom not forming until the end of 2015/early 2016, further downside for gold (and silver) likely lies ahead. For context, it’s my belief that the precious metals will bottom when the BPGDM hits zero – and perhaps when it remains there for some time. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks put on quite a show on Jan. 19. However, with their bullish rhythm known to turn bearish in an instant, investors should proceed with caution. Moreover, the data shows that when investors rush to buy the precious metals, their over-enthusiasm results in medium-term weakness, not strength. As a result, the trio’s declines likely have more room to run before long-term buying opportunities emerge later in 2022. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

TSLA finished Thursday in the green, gaining 0.06% to $996.27. Equities had gyrated sharply but fell as the close approached. Tesla stock outperforms as Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fall sharply. Tesla (TSLA) managed to hold onto intraday gains but only just barely on Thursday. Stocks (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) had opened well and were up some 1% for the main indices at the halfway stage of Thursday, but jitters resurfaced as the finish line approached. Investors began dumping positions, and the main indices closed in the red. The S&P 500 shed 1.1%, the Dow closed 0.89% lower and the Nasdaq closed down the most at 1.34% in the red. Tesla however just held onto a green day, up 0.06%. Given that it is a volatile name and a high beta one, this was a strong outperformance. Tesla Stock News: bearish Bank of America forecast a worrying sign Tesla (TSLA) stock may have held its ground in anticipation of its Q4 earnings, which are due out next week. Bank of America and Piper Sandler fought it out with conflicting analyst reports. Bank of America took a dim view of Tesla's market share forecasts, saying it would drop from 69% to 19% of the EV market due to legacy automakers ramping up EV production. However, Piper Sandler noted that it sees Tesla beating delivery estimates for the year due to factories in Texas and Berlin ramping up production. For now, it appears investors are putting more focus on those delivery numbers and anticipating a strong earnings report. The Bank of America report is more alarming, but it does have a longer term outlook with the market share fall predicted for 2024. Tesla Stock Forecast: $886 is a futher downside target Yesterday's move has kept Tesla above the key short-term pivot at $980, but note that yesterday's high price was stuck at the 9-day moving average and Tesla failed to break through. This gives us more belief in an imminent break of $980. If this level does go, then the move to $886 will likely be quick due to a lack of volume. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

Shiba Inu price sees bears drilling down on an important area of support. SHIB price could see a nose dive reaction later today should the US session see accelerated selloffs. A break below the 200-day SMA could hold 70% of losses before plenty of support is found. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price continues to be controlled by bears after the dead-cat bounce in stock markets yesterday evening. With the Nasdaq closing sharply lower, giving up earlier gains, cryptocurrencies are being dragged into a selloff on its coattails, and bearish headwinds persist. Expect a further continuation of downside tests, with $0.00002576, up next, and a break below that opening up the possibility of SHIB price being decimated towards $0.00000655 – a 70% devaluation. Shiba Inu hanging by a thread before price action could collapse Shiba Inu price is in a vortex along with other financial market assets, after the US session saw a180 degree U-turn to the downside. The ASIA PAC and European sessions are also sharply lower and with risk assets being slashed across the board. This is being reflected in cryptocurrencies where a selloff is also taking place. At the moment, SHIB price is drilling down to $0.00002482, a level where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the monthly S1 support level intersect.This should offer plenty of support, but with current market sentiment so negative, it is not a given that investors will want to step in and support the trade. A break lower would see price next pause at $0.00001623, the S2 monthly support. The level of the S2 does not hold any historical relevance, however, making it relatively weak, and the only key level further down looks to be $0.00000607, just above the S3 monthly support, and the starting point of a Fibonacci retracement. Depending on how the US session will unfold, expect this to be on the cards in the days to come if markets enter into correction territory or even into a recession. The result would be SHIB shedding 70% of its market value from where it is currently trading. SHIB/USD daily chart Often enough, markets see an uptick after a gloomy negative day like yesterday. Investors start to come in and pick up interesting assets at a discount, and markets finally get to a point where a revaluation trade is made. This could be the same for Shiba Inu, with the 200-day SMA holding its ground, supporting price action, and a bullish candle starting to form with a test at the 55-day SMA around $0.00003395.

USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc rallied as traders poured into safe-haven currencies. The pair previously bounced off the critical floor (0.9090) on the daily chart. An oversold RSI in this demand zone brought in some buying interest. However, sentiment remains downbeat with the greenback struggling to clear offers around 0.9180. A fall below said support would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.9020 as late buyers rush to the exit. On the upside, a bullish breakout would open the door to the recent peak at 0.9275. CADJPY breaks key support The Canadian dollar slipped after disappointing retail sales in November. A bearish RSI divergence at the recent high (91.15) indicates a loss of momentum in the rally. The first drop below 90.60 prompted some buyers to bail out. Then the rebound met stiff selling pressure at 91.90. And this is a sign of exhaustion after a four-week-long uptrend. The loonie now has fallen through the major support at 90.60, with 89.80 as the target. As the RSI goes oversold, traders may look to sell the next bounce near 91.05. UK 100 tumbles through supports The FTSE 100 stalls as appetite subsides across risk assets. An overbought RSI on the daily chart suggests over-extension after a month-long rally. A pullback is necessary for the bulls to catch their breath. A drop below 7530 and then 7470 further weighs on short-term sentiment as profit-taking intensifies. The index is about to test 7380, a fresh demand zone from the November-December double top on the daily timeframe. The bulls need to reclaim 7540 before a rebound could gain traction.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the trend changes in speculator sentiment we are seeing in the Euro and the British pound sterling. Speculators have been boosting their bets for the Euro and pound sterling over the past weeks and have now pushed their bets in both currencies to their best levels since September. Euro positions have gained for five consecutive weeks (a 5-week total rise of +36,463 contracts) and have now been in bullish territory for two straight weeks after spending thirteen out of the past fourteen weeks in bearish territory. This week’s net position of +24,584 contracts marks the best position since September 14th when positions were in a downtrend and on their way into negative territory. British pound speculator bets, meanwhile, have risen sharply with four straight weeks of gains (a 4-week rise by +57,439 contracts) and have now settled into a current position of just -247 net contracts. The net position had been at a multi-year bearish high of -57,686 contracts as recently as December 21st before a turnaround in sentiment. Free Reports: Top 5 Companies Added to Our Stock Watch List this Quarter - Here are the Stock Symbols that stood out so far in the fourth quarter of 2021. Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis. Joining the Euro (18,579 contracts) and British pound sterling (28,919 contracts) with positive changes this week were the yen (6,646 contracts), New Zealand dollar (273 contracts), Canadian dollar (14,868 contracts), Australian dollar (3,032 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,371 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,458 contracts), Brazil real (-557 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,150 contracts), Russian ruble (-3,195 contracts) and Bitcoin (-172 contracts) Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jan-18-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index EUR 691,882 80 24,584 43 -50,464 61 25,880 17 JPY 201,820 56 -80,879 17 99,740 86 -18,861 9 GBP 183,234 28 -247 74 2,848 31 -2,601 50 AUD 181,136 68 -88,454 3 98,519 92 -10,065 28 MXN 151,778 27 4,920 29 -7,490 70 2,570 54 CAD 143,371 26 7,492 58 -13,723 47 6,231 42 USD Index 53,283 74 36,434 89 -42,397 4 5,963 82 RUB 45,413 46 6,422 29 -7,251 69 829 57 NZD 44,727 33 -8,331 57 10,622 47 -2,291 26 CHF 39,871 14 -10,810 51 13,799 46 -2,989 54 BRL 32,098 30 -11,369 53 10,759 48 610 74 Bitcoin 11,468 62 -549 91 -22 0 571 26   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,892 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 3.2 15.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 82.7 4.2 – Net Position: 36,434 -42,397 5,963 – Gross Longs: 42,369 1,684 8,180 – Gross Shorts: 5,935 44,081 2,217 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.6 4.1 81.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.7 -3.6 6.8   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,005 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 56.3 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 63.6 7.8 – Net Position: 24,584 -50,464 25,880 – Gross Longs: 211,901 389,617 79,656 – Gross Shorts: 187,317 440,081 53,776 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.5 61.5 17.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.1 -8.6 -4.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,166 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.7 62.5 14.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 60.9 15.8 – Net Position: -247 2,848 -2,601 – Gross Longs: 39,760 114,486 26,267 – Gross Shorts: 40,007 111,638 28,868 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 31.4 50.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.4 -30.6 28.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,525 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 86.1 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.0 36.6 18.0 – Net Position: -80,879 99,740 -18,861 – Gross Longs: 8,002 173,701 17,475 – Gross Shorts: 88,881 73,961 36,336 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.9 85.7 9.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.3 9.5 -3.1   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,660 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.3 67.3 30.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.4 32.7 37.5 – Net Position: -10,810 13,799 -2,989 – Gross Longs: 925 26,828 11,951 – Gross Shorts: 11,735 13,029 14,940 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.1 46.4 54.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.2 -7.4 15.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,376 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.7 41.1 21.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 50.7 17.5 – Net Position: 7,492 -13,723 6,231 – Gross Longs: 49,792 58,921 31,270 – Gross Shorts: 42,300 72,644 25,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.9 46.9 42.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.3 -13.5 6.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -88,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,486 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 82.2 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.8 27.9 16.1 – Net Position: -88,454 98,519 -10,065 – Gross Longs: 9,051 148,978 19,008 – Gross Shorts: 97,505 50,459 29,073 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.8 92.4 27.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.2 -0.3 17.1   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,604 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.0 66.8 6.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.6 43.0 11.5 – Net Position: -8,331 10,622 -2,291 – Gross Longs: 11,612 29,876 2,851 – Gross Shorts: 19,943 19,254 5,142 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.3 46.8 25.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 30.0 -5.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,451 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 49.7 46.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.5 51.0 2.2 – Net Position: 4,920 -7,490 2,570 – Gross Longs: 75,461 69,942 5,901 – Gross Shorts: 70,541 77,432 3,331 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.4 69.7 53.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.4 -30.3 15.6   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,812 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.1 56.6 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.6 23.1 7.0 – Net Position: -11,369 10,759 610 – Gross Longs: 10,958 18,179 2,841 – Gross Shorts: 22,327 7,420 2,231 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.4 47.8 74.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 6.6 9.9   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,617 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.3 60.0 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.2 75.9 2.8 – Net Position: 6,422 -7,251 829 – Gross Longs: 16,034 27,233 2,101 – Gross Shorts: 9,612 34,484 1,272 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.6 68.9 57.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.5 19.1 -25.4   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -377 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.4 3.1 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.2 3.3 7.3 – Net Position: -549 -22 571 – Gross Longs: 8,417 355 1,407 – Gross Shorts: 8,966 377 836 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.9 28.5 25.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.4 -13.2 -5.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here. CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News Opinions   COT Bonds Speculators sharply reduce 5-Year Treasury bearish bets for 2nd week →

  You don't have to be a fortune teller to predict some of the precious metals’ behavior in the market. Any incoming signs take the shape of a bear. What a signal-rich week that was! At least if you’re interested in forecasting gold and predicting silver prices. The USD Index rallied, but that was the least interesting of the important developments, as it had already reversed during the preceding week. So, the fact that the USD Index continued its medium-term uptrend last week is not that noteworthy. It needs to be said, though, as that continues to be an important factor for the future of the precious metals market. To be clear – the implications for the PM sector are bearish. What about gold, the key precious metal? Gold is so far almost unchanged this year, despite the initial decline and the subsequent rally. Overall, gold is up by $3.20 so far in 2022, which is next to nothing. Gold rallied on a supposedly dangerous situation regarding Ukraine, but it failed to rally above the combination of resistance lines and very little changed technically. On a side note, I would like to remind you that, based on our own reliable source in Ukraine (one of our team members is located there), the risk of military conflict (in particular, a severe one) is low, and it seems that the market’s reaction was greatly exaggerated. Anyway, moving back to technicals, let’s keep this $3.20-up-this-year statistic in mind while we take a look at what’s going on in silver and mining stocks. Silver declined on Friday, but it’s still up by $0.97 so far in 2022. This means that on a short-term basis, silver greatly outperformed gold. What’s up with mining stocks? The GDX ETF – a proxy for generally senior mining stocks – is down this year by $0.38, which is 1.19%. At the same time, the GDXJ ETF is down by $0.87, which is 2.07%. In other words: While silver is outperforming gold on a short-term basis, gold mining stocks are underperforming it. Junior mining stocks (our short position) are declining more than senior miners, and in fact, they are declining the most out of the entire precious metals sector. Silver’s outperformance, accompanied by gold miners weakness, is a powerful bearish combination in the case of the entire precious metals sector. If the general stock market is going to slide, silver and mining stocks (in particular, junior mining stocks) are likely to decline in a rather extreme manner. The thing is… We just saw something in the general stock market that we haven’t seen since early 2020 – right before the massive decline that triggered the huge declines in the precious metals sector. The RSI Index just moved below 30 for the first time since pre-slide moments. Just like what we saw back then, the S&P 500 is now declining on increasing volume. Yes, RSI below 30 is generally considered oversold territory, but the direct analogies take precedence over the “usual” way in which things work in markets in general. In this case, the situation could get from oversold to extremely oversold. Let’s keep in mind that stocks declined very sharply in 2020. One could say that times were different, but were they really? The key difference is that the monetary authorities are now already after the bullish money-printing cycle and are handling inflation by aiming to increase interest rates, while they had been preparing to cut them in 2020. The situation regarding the pandemic is not that different either. Sure, back in 2020, it was all new, we had massive lockdowns and there was great uncertainty regarding… pretty much everything. Now, the situation is not entirely unexpected, but given the explosive nature of new COVID-19 cases (likely due to the Omicron variant), it’s still quite new and uncertain. The uncertainty is not as great as it was back in 2020, but then again, now we’re facing monetary tightening, not dramatic dovish actions. Thus, I wouldn’t exclude a situation in which we really see a repeat of the early-2020 performance, where the declines are sharp and huge. The technicals in the precious metals market have been pointing to that outcome for months anyway, especially the long-term HUI Index chart that I’ve been discussing previously. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Cardano's price action is slipping below the monthly S1 and crucial historical support. Once broken below this vital support, an area of 30% losses could be triggered. Expect bulls to await the FED meeting later this week before engaging in the market. Cardano (ADA) price action is not seeing the turn in sentiment that was expected with the start of a new trading week. Geopolitical talks are ramping up again this Monday regarding Russia, and investors are awaiting details of monetary tightening by the FED later this week, making investors an absent party in the cryptocurrency market for the first few days of the week. As $1.01 is under fire, expect a break below to open the next leg lower towards $0.69, shedding another 30% of the price value for the altcoin. Cardano price sees investors absent in the build up to the FED rate decision Cardano participants seem to be split in half, with only sellers and bears present in the market, while bulls and investors remain on the sideline. The biggest reasons for this are the political rhetoric on Russia that is ramping up again this morning after statements that NATO and the US would send in more military material and troops. Financial markets, meanwhile, are awaiting the outcome of the FED monetary policy meeting Wednesday. These two tail risks keep price action muted or further to the downside, with investors sidelined. ADA this morning is drilling down on the monthly S1 support level and the historical $1.01 level that goes back to March 05. Once this breaks, expect not much support to be present until $0.69 where the monthly S2 support level kicks in at around $0.75, but the most significant historical level is at $0.69 from February 06. Expect buyers to come in there as that would mean that ADA price action is back at 0% on a Year-To-Date (YTD) performance. ADA/USD daily chart As the FED holds the keys for a turn in sentiment short-term, expect a pop higher to unfold very quickly. A knee jerk reaction would wash out many short positions and bring price action quickly back towards $1.40, at the level of the monthly pivot and the green ascending trend line. Should the message from the FED by Wednesday be very dovish and in favour of risk-on sentiment, expect a possible test of $1.68 further to the upside for this week.

GameStop stock stages a dead cat bounce on Friday. GME stock closes up nearly 4% on Friday as market freefalls. More losses are likely on Monday as momentum fades and meme is massacred. GameStop (GME) managed to outperform the market significantly on Friday. The meme stock king closed nearly 4% higher at $106.36 despite the main indices closing sharply in the red. However, this was merely a dead cat bounce, and we will outline our reasoning below. GameStop Stock News Nothing too significant behind Friday's outperformance. GameStop (GME) shares had suffered eight consecutive days of losses. Statistically, an up day was becoming more and more likely. GameStop passed a few milestones without much fanfare or reaction from the stock price. Social media traders attempted to play up the one-year anniversary of the GameStop pop, and CEO Ryan Cohen joined in. However, the stock slid. An announcement of a pivot into the NFT space was also met by indifference after a quick surge from the share price. Despite GME spending much of last week near the top of social media mentions, it failed to hook any buyers. The market has little time for risk at present, and speculative meme stocks are getting hit hard so far this year. As we have mentioned, this may be a good thing and avert a full-blown bubble bursting, akin to 2000. The NFT announcement did see a brief pop, but that merely presented a fresh selling opportunity. Year to date, GME is now down nearly 30% and is likely to get worse. The main trading lesson of momentum trading is to get out quickly when momentum stops or stalls. This is not investing or buy-and-hold. This is the realm of quick scalping and risk control. Momentum has collapsed in retail names. Witness falling volumes, falling single share volumes, lower retail sentiment, and drastically lower call option volume: all signs of falling momentum. GameStop Stock Forecast $100 will be broken soon, possibly today or Tuesday. That will lead to some stop-loss triggering as people are herd animals and love round numbers. There will be plenty of stops sitting just below $100. $86 is the target thereafter. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has more room to run before being overbought. Breaking $86 is big. That was the retest following the power surge higher back in February pf last year. Below $86 volume thins out, and there is a volume gap until $50. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

Bitcoin will create, not destroy BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, no rush: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 25th, 2022. All the typical fears came forward after last week’s price decline in the crypto space. Fears on why to get out of one’s bitcoin hodls. Even to walk away from the idea of bitcoin being a good store of value. But the emotional decision in market participation is often the wrong choice to come out ahead. Bitcoin will not be regulated away. With a near 100 billion tax revenue, bitcoin is unlikely to be banned in the USA. It has established itself in size as an income stream that no one could afford to give up. The monthly chart above shows that after the recent double top bitcoin´s two year strong up move has seen three months of a price decline to the 50% Fibonacci retracement line. To the right of the chart, we portray two fictitious candles as we see a likelihood of the future to unfold over the next two months.   BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, sideways to up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of January 25th, 2022. On January 20th, the Federal Reserve Board released a discussion paper that examines the pros and cons of a potential U.S. central bank digital currency. News like this shakes up investor’s minds, fearing possible conversions where fiat currency savings might lose some of their value. On top, massive fear ruled the market over the last few days and weeks, a time when professionals know that opportunities are just around the corner. A look at the weekly chart reveals that the right top of the monthly double top had a substructure of a head and shoulders formation. Last week, the shoulder line broke and sent prices plummeting for a near 22% loss. Prices find themselves now in a value zone. In the histogram to the right of the chart, we see a fractal volume analysis. This analysis suggests supply in the price zone between US$36,000 and US$31,000. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Bitcoin will create, not destroy: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of January 25th, 2022. As much as we expect a sideways zone for four to eight weeks before bitcoin prices head significantly higher, we already attempted three long trades on a daily time frame after prices entered into the value zone pointed out on the previous chart. Our approach of position building thanks to a quad exit strategy exploit low-risk entry points. Consequently, we were able in the past to catch bitcoin long-term trades near their price lows. News has more than once in the past accelerated price up moves for bitcoin in an unexpected fashion. As a result, we are actively scanning for low-risk opportunities already now. The price moves marked in white show how prices decline quickly in bitcoin, while typically trading sideways most of the time. Fortunately, rising prices act just the same way. The volume profile to the right of the chart shows four significant supply zones. (marked in orange dotted horizontal lines.) Bitcoin will create, not destroy: The good news is that government’s conversion of fiat money to digital might scare people into fleeing with their savings into bitcoin. Henceforth, they further stabilize this payment method. We mention this possible future for bitcoin since changes could be rapid, significant, and surprising. Consequently, bitcoin might find itself in a fast uptrend with high price targets to be expected. We also want to point out the nature of your participation in long-term bitcoin acquisitions. You are not only a speculator on a perfect investment, but also a holder of a positive value. A principle value that protects your freedom of purchasing power. A purchasing power that isn’t transparent allows you to conduct business as you please. Transactions without a controlling force casting a shadow over your choices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|January 25th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

S&P 500 closed below the 200-day moving average – unheard of. But similarly to the turn in credit markets on Wednesday, the bulls can surprise shortly as the differential between HYG and TLT with LQD is more pronounced now. The field is getting clear, the bulls can move – and shortly would whether or not we see the autumn lows tested next. Now that my target of 4,400 has been reached (the journey to this support has been a more one-sided event than anticipated), 4,300 are next in the bears sight. The bearish voice and appetite is growing, which may call for a little caution in celebrating the downswings next. Relief rally is approaching, even if not immediately and visibly here yet. All I am waiting for, is a convincing turn in the credit markets, which we haven‘t seen yet. The dollar is likely to waver in the medium-term, and that‘s what‘s helping the great and profitable moves in commodities, and reviving precious metals. Crypto short profits are likewise growing – the real question is when the tech slide would stop (getting closer), and how much would financials rebound as well. Not worried about energy – the oil dip would turn out a mere blip. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers are nowhere to be seen, volume isn‘t yet at capitulation levels – rebound off increasingly oversold levels is approaching. Tech melting down faster than value is to be expected – look for consumer staples to do fine too, not just the sectors mentioned above. As written on Friday, the turn in bleeding in credit markets and tech may stop as early as Monday or Tuesday – I remain watching closely for signs of a high-confidence setup to perhaps take. Credit Markets HYG paused for a day while quality debt instruments rose – that‘s still risk-off, but symptomatic of the larger battle and buying interest at these levels already. Could presage a respite in stocks during the regular session next. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver indeed paused a little – in spite of the miners weakness, that‘s no reversal. Most likely only a temporary correction within a developing uptrend. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are finally getting tested, and by the look of oil stocks, it‘s not going to be a test reaching too far. Not even volume rose on the day – look for price stabilization followed by another upswing. Copper Copper had actually a hidden bullish day – a good consolidation of prior gains. While the volume isn‘t pointing the clearly bearish way, the amplitude of the move can be repeated next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum Sunday rally fizzled out, and the downswing doesn‘t look to be yet over as another day of panic across the board is ahead. No signs from cryptos that the slide is stopping now. Summary S&P 500 bulls are readying a surprise – the long string of red days is coming to a pause. Credit markets turning a bit risk-on coupled with a tech pause and financials revival (not to mention consumer staples and energy) would be the recipe to turn the tide. We‘re in a large S&P 500 range, and got quite near its lower band at around 4,300. The short rides are to be wound down shortly, and that will coincide with another commodities run higher. Look to precious metals likewise not to disappoint while cryptos continue struggling at the moment. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

GBPUSD remains under pressure The sterling struggles as global markets remain risk-off. A limited rebound has fought to hold above 1.3570 and the sell-off accelerated after a bearish breakout. The pair is testing a previous low at 1.3440 which sits along the 30-day moving average. There could be buying interest in this congestion area after the RSI plunged into the oversold band. 1.3570 is now a fresh resistance, then the bulls will need to lift 1.3660 before they could turn sentiment around. On the other hand, a deeper correction may send the price to 1.3400. AUDUSD in bearish reversal The Australian dollar recovered after the Q4 CPI beat expectations. However, the latest rally took a bearish turn after the price slipped below 0.7170. The lack of commitment to hold onto recent gains suggests a weak risk appetite. A fall below the daily support at 0.7130 further weighs on the Aussie and prompts buyers to bail out. The RSI’s oversold situation helped lift the pair temporarily. Nonetheless, the bears might be eager to sell into strength near 0.7210. 0.7080 would be the next stop as the trend turns south. GER 40 tests critical support The Dax 40 plunges amid rising tensions in Ukraine. The index has given up all gains from the rebound in late December and cut through the major demand zone around 15070. The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation attracted a buying-the-dips crowd. Nevertheless, there is no sign of improvement in the market mood. And price action has not stabilized yet. A grind of last October’s low at 14820 would test the bulls’ resolve in the medium-term. On the upside, 15600 is the first hurdle to lift.

  The S&P 500 index was trading 4% lower yesterday before closing 0.3% higher. So was it an upward reversal or just another temporary bottom? The broad stock market index accelerated its sell-off on Monday, as it reached the new local low of 4,222.62. The market was 596 points or 12.4% below the Jan. 4 record high of 4,818.62. Investors reacted to further Russia-Ukraine tensions. We are also waiting for series of quarterly earnings releases, tomorrow’s FOMC Statement release and Thursday’s important U.S. Advance GDP release. Overall, we had a big increase in volatility yesterday. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. This morning it is expected to open 1.6% lower and we may see more short-term volatility. Will it reach yesterday’s low again? Probably not – we’ll likely see a consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,420-4,450, marked by yesterday’s daily high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350. The support level is also at 4,220-4,250. The S&P 500 remains below a steep short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Microsoft Stocks Ahead of the Earnings Release Microsoft (MSFT) will release its quarterly earnings today after the session’s close. It’s an important stock, as it weighs 6.0%, just after the Apple’s 6.7%. So, the S&P 500 traders will be watching that release very closely. Microsoft accelerated its sell-off yesterday and it fell to the local low of $276.05. It was 21% below the Nov. 22 record high of $349.67. The stock remains below the downward trend line, but we can see some clear short-term oversold conditions. Let’s take a look at the Microsoft’s monthly chart. The stock broke below its multi-year hyperbolic run marked by the thick blue curve. The chart is logarithmic, and we can see an enormous rally that took place since 2013. The breakdown may lead to a change in trend or some medium- or long-term consolidation. It looks like a multi-year bull run is over. Futures Contract Got Close to the 4,200 Level Yesterday The S&P 500 futures contract accelerated its downtrend yesterday, as it fell close to the 4,200 level. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far, however there are some downtrend exhaustion signals. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index accelerated its sell-off yesterday and at some point it was 4% lower! But the market rebounded sharply following a “V” pattern reversal and it closed 0.3% higher. This morning it is expected to open 1.6% lower and we may see some further volatility. The coming quarterly earnings releases (MSFT on Tuesday, TSLA on Wednesday and AAPL on Thursday, among others) remain a bullish factor for stocks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Investors are also waiting for tomorrow’s Fed release and Thursday’s U.S. Advance GPD number release. If you want to be in the loop about any future market changes (with instant mail notifications!) sign up for the newsletter here. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open lower again; we may see a consolidation. Opening a speculative long position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Tough call as select S&P 500 sectors came back to life, but credit markets are a bit inconclusive. Some more selling today before seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around). VIX looks to have topped yesterday, and coupled with the commodities and precious metals relative resilience (don‘t look at cryptos where I took sizable short profits in both Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday), sends a signal of upcoming good couple of dozen points rebound in the S&P 500. Taking a correct view at the hightened, emotional market slide yesterday, is through the portfolio performance – as you can see via clicking the link, yesterday‘s setup needn‘t and shouldn‘t be anyone‘s make or break situation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers stepped in, and carving out a nice lower knot today is the minimum expectation that the bulls can have. The reversal is still very young and vulnerable. Credit Markets HYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – there is just a marginal daily outperformance of quality debt instruments. More is needed. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are only pausing – in spite of the miners move to the downside at the moment. HUI and GDX will catch up – they‘re practically primed to do so over the medium-term. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are still getting tested, and oil stocks stabilized on a daily basis. Some downside still remains, but nothing dramatic – the volume didn‘t even rise yesterday. Copper Copper declined, but didn‘t meaningfully lead lower – the downswing was actually bought, and low 4.40s look to be well defended at the moment. More fear striking, would change the picture, but we aren‘t there yet. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum reversed, but in spire of the volume, look to need more time to bottom out – and I wouldn‘t be surprised if that included another decline. Summary S&P 500 bulls would get tested today again, and at least a draw would be a positive result, as yesterday‘s tech upswing is more likely to be continued tomorrow than today – that‘s how it usually goes after sizable (think 5%) range days. The table is set for an upside surprise on FOMC tomorrow – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals, and the coming S&P 500 upswing looks to be a worthwhile opportunity in the making, too – on a short-term and nimble basis. So, I‘m more in the glass half full camp going into tomorrow. Anyway, let‘s take the portfolio view discussed in the opening part of today‘s article. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

GameStop stock crashes but recovers in the afternoon. GameStop shares close nearly 6% lower on Monday. GME shares remain top of WallStreetBets interest list. GameStop (GME) stock likes volatility, and meme traders should certainly be used to it by now, but perhaps not the type that was evident yesterday. GameStop shares crashed below $100 and kept on going before a broad-based afternoon rally helped GME stock recover to close just above the psychological $100 level. GameStop Stock News Again we find ourselves writing about a stock with significant movement based solely on price action. There is little in the way of actual hard news flow. GameStop stock has not had a good start to the year, but despite this it remains one of the top trending stocks across most social media platforms. This has partly to do with loyalty and partly to do with the one-year anniversary of the GameStop saga. However, for the most part traders are fixated on the big picture theme of us versus them that captured the whole argument. GameStop is now down over 30% so far in 2022. GameStop Stock Forecast We remain bearish on this one, which I know many loyal holders may not want to hear. We have to focus on the chart and what we can take from that. Loyalty, if not profitable, is pointless to a trader. Emotion should always be controlled. Breaking $100 was psychological and led to some stops likely triggering. We had identified $86 as strong support for the last few weeks, and GME shares more or less bounced perfectly from it yesterday. GME stock bottomed out at $86.29, so we can take some kudos for that. But now where? Holding $86 was actually pretty important as below is a big volume gap that would likely see an acceleration toward $70. Holding gives some hope of a rebound, but $118.59 remains the short-term pivot for us. Below here bears are in charge. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are both still following price lower, so there is no sign of any divergence or oversold conditions just yet. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

  The World Gold Council believes that gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 to those of last year. Well, I’m not so sure about it. Have you ever had the feeling that all of this has already happened and you are in a time loop, repeating Groundhog Day? I have. For instance, I’m pretty sure that I have already written the Fundamental Gold Report with a reference to pop-culture before… Anyway, I’m asking you this, because the World Gold Council warns us against the whole groundhog year for the gold market. In its “Gold Outlook 2022,” the gold industry organization writes that “gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 to those of last year.” The reason is that in 2021, gold was under the influence of two competing forces. These factors were the increasing interest rates and rising inflation, especially strong in operation in the second half of the year, which resulted in the sideways trend in the gold market, as the chart below shows. The WGC sees a similar tug of war in 2022: the hikes in the federal funds rate could create downward pressure for gold, but at the same time, elevated inflation will likely create a tailwind for gold. The WGC acknowledges that the ongoing tightening of monetary policy can be an important headwind for gold. However, it notes two important caveats. First, the Fed has a clear dovish bias and often overpromises when it comes to hawkish actions. For example, in the previous tightening cycle, “the Fed has tended not to tighten monetary policy as aggressively as members of the committee had initially expected.” Second, financial market expectations are more important for gold prices than actual events. As a result, “gold has historically underperformed in the months leading up to a Fed tightening cycle, only to significantly outperform in the months following the first rate hike.” I totally agree. I emphasized many times the Fed’s dovish bias and that the actual interest rate hikes could be actually better for gold than their prospects. After all, gold bottomed out in December 2015, when the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since the Great Recession. I also concur with the WGC that inflation may linger this year. Expectations that inflation will quickly dissipate are clearly too optimistic. As China is trying right now to contain the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, supply chain disruptions may worsen, contributing to elevated inflation. However, although I expect inflation to remain high, I believe that it will cool down in 2022. If so, the real interest rates are likely to increase, creating a downward pressure on gold prices. I also believe that the WGC is too optimistic when it comes to the real interest rates and their impact on the yellow metal. According to the report, despite the rate hikes, the real interest rates will stay low from a historical perspective, supporting gold prices. Although true, investors should remember that changes in economic variables are usually more important than their levels. Hence, the rebound in interest rates may still be harmful for the precious metals.   Implications for Gold What should be expected for gold in 2022? Will this year be similar to 2021? Well, just like last year, gold will find itself caught between a hawkish Fed and high inflation. Hence, some similarities are possible. However, in reality, we are not in a time loop and don’t have to report on Groundhog Day (phew, what a relief!). The arrow of time continues its inexorable movement into the future. Thus, market conditions evolve and history never repeats itself, but only rhymes. Thus, I bet that 2022 will be different than 2021 for gold, and we will see more volatility this year. In our particular situation, the mere expectations of a more hawkish Fed are evolving into actual actions. This is good news for the gold market, although the likely peak in inflation and normalization of real interest rates could be an important headwind for gold this year. Tomorrow, we will get to know the FOMC’s first decision on monetary policy this year, which could shake the gold market but also provide more clues for the future. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

EURUSD grinds daily support The US dollar inches lower as traders take profit ahead of the Fed meeting. The euro’s struggle to stay above 1.1360 indicates buyers’ weak interest in holding onto previous gains. The latest rebounds have failed to clear the former support that has turned into a resistance. A break below the previous consolidation range and daily support (1.1280) could send the pair to 1.1235. The RSI’s oversold situation attracted some buying interest. But the bulls will need to lift 1.1360 first before a reversal could become a reality. EURCHF attempts reversal The safe-haven Swiss franc retreats as global panic selling takes a breather. A bullish RSI divergence shows a slowdown in the sell-off momentum. Then a rally above 1.0355 has prompted some sellers to cover, taking the heat off the single currency. A bullish MA cross is an encouraging sign for a reversal. 1.0400 is the next hurdle and its breach could be a turning point for traders’ sentiment and a launchpad towards 1.0480. On the downside, 1.0340 is fresh support and then 1.0300 a critical floor to safeguard the rebound. US 30 hits last major support The Dow Jones 30 recoups losses as traders await details on the Fed’s monetary tightening. Breaks below daily supports at 34700 and 34000 have forced buyers to liquidate in bulk. The index saw bids at last June’s low (33200) while the RSI sank into the oversold area on the daily chart. As the quote stabilizes, traders may be looking to buy the dips. A close above 34500 may lead to 35500 which is a key supply zone from a previous breakout. A break below the daily support could trigger a broader correction in the weeks to come.

Glass half full call on S&P 500 yesterday was vindicated – this yet another reversal has the power to go on, and credit markets appear sniffing out the upcoming reprieve. While rates have justifiably risen, they have done so quite fast in Jan – time to calm down and reprice the excessively hawkish Fed fears. Even if it was just energy and financials that rose yesterday, the table is set for gains across many assets – just check the progress from yesterday‘s already optimistic upturn, or the already fine early view of yesterday‘s market internals.VIX is calming down, Fed is unlikely to rock the boat too much – such were my yesterday‘s thoughts about:(…) seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).The sizable open profits – whether in S&P 500 or crude oil – can keep on growing while gold slowly approaches $1,870 again (look for a good day today), and copper stabilizes above $4.50 to keep pushing higher even if not yet outperforming other commodities. More dry firepowder and fresh profits ahead anywhere I look – even cryptos are to enjoy the unfolding risk-on upswing.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis is what a tradable S&P 500 bottom looks like – just as it was most likely to turn out. After the 200-day moving average, 4,500 point of control is the next target.Credit MarketsHYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – this is how a budding reversal looks like, especially since the selling hasn‘t picked up ahead of the Fed. Turning already.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver pause was barely noticeable – it‘s a great sight of upcoming strength in the metals while miners unfortunately would continue underperforming to a degree, i.e. not leading decisively.Crude OilCrude oil bulls are back, how did you like the pause? The ride higher isn‘t over by a long shot, and I like the volume of late being this much aligned.CopperCopper looks to be catching breath before another (modest but still) upswing. The buyers aren‘t yet rushing headlong.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum reversed, and are participating in the risk-on upturn, with Ethereum sending out quite nice short-term signs. From the overall portfolio view and upcoming volatility though, I would prefer to wait before making any move here.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood yesterday‘s test, and are well positioned to extend gains, especially on the upcoming well received FOMC statement and soothing press conference. It had also turned out that a tech upswing is more likely to be continued today than yesterday – the Fed‘s words would calm down bonds, and that would enable a better Nasdaq upswing.As I wrote yesterday, the table is set for an upside FOMC surprise – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals – and I would add today once again in a while that real assets upswing would coincide with the dollar moving lower later today (check those upper knots of late). So far so good in risk-on, inflation trades – and things will get even better as my regular readers know (I can‘t underline how much you can benefit from regularly reading the full analyses as these are about how I arrive at the profitable conclusions presented & how you can twist them to your own purposes).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Recent volatility in the US markets ahead of the Fed comments/actions have prompted a relatively big pullback in almost every sector. Many traders are concerned the Fed may take immediate action to raise rates. Yet, a small portion of traders believes the Fed may be trapped in a position to act more conservatively in addressing inflation going forward. I think the Fed will continue to talk firmly about potentially raising rates. The Fed is more interested in decreasing the assets on their balance sheet before they risk doing anything to disrupt support for the global markets.Suppose my analysis of the Fed predicament is correct. In that case, the recent collapse of the US markets represents a fear-based emotional selloff of many sectors that may still represent a strong opportunity for a recovery rally in 2022. One of those sectors is the Financial sector – particularly XLF.I wrote about this on January 7, 2022, in this article: FINANCIAL SECTOR STARTS TO RALLY TOWARDS THE $43.60 UPSIDE TARGETI also wrote how the US Fed might be playing with fire regarding their stern positioning and statements recently in this article on January 14, 2022: US FEDERAL RESERVE - PLAYING WITH FIRE PART 2Critical Components Of Recent Inflationary TrendsIf you attempt to follow my logic as I read into the Fed's intentions. There are three critical components to navigating the rise of inflationary trends recently.The COVID-19 virus event created several disparities in the global markets. First, the disruption to the labor and supply-side markets began an almost immediate inflationary aspect for the global economy. Secondly, the US's stimulus and easy money policies have stimulated demand for products, technology, houses, autos, and other real assets. These two factors combined have increased inflationary pressures on the global markets.Rising consumer demand for real and virtual assets such as Cryptos, NFTs, and others has pushed the speculative investing cycle into a hyper-active rally phase. This was clearly witnessed in early 2021, with the Reddit/Meme rallies became the hottest trades, then quickly dissipated after July 2021. This speculative rally has pushed the post-COVID rally well beyond reasonable expectations over the past 16+ months.Excessive debt levels push a deflationary process to the forefront. Consumers are now starting to pull away from the excesses of the past 16+ months. The Fed's tough talk and recent deeper declines in various sectors over the past 12+ months show that inflationary trends are subsiding. Despite the supply-side issues being resolved, consumers continue to pull away from hyper-speculative activities. The markets will naturally revalue to support more realistic price levels, deflating excessive P/E ratios and recent extreme price peaks in assets.Possible Next Steps for the US FedMy interpretation of the global markets is that excess speculative trending and rising commodity prices, combined with excess debt levels and consumers who have suddenly become very aware of global market risks, are already acting as a deflationary process. Because of these underlying factors, which I believe are currently in play throughout the globe, the US Federal Reserve may be forced to wait things out a bit. The Fed may have to navigate these natural deflationary processes while attempting to provide monetary support for what I believe will be a downside/deflationary trend over the next 3+ years.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The US Federal Reserve may not have to take any aggressive action right now. Instead, it may decide to watch how the global markets contract as consumers pull away from inflated price levels and higher risks and attempt to navigate these natural deflationary price trends. If the Fed were to act aggressively right now and raise rates, they could push the global markets into a steeper collapse. This process would likely burst numerous asset bubbles very quickly and push many foreign nations into some type of debt default.This presents a new problem for the US Fed – going from inflationary concerns to global economic collapse concerns very quickly. So when I suggested the Fed is playing with fire – maybe I should have said “playing with the nuclear economic football”?Financial Sector ResilienceStill, I believe the US Financial sector is showing tremendous resilience near $37.50. I think it has a powerful opportunity to rally back above $42 to $44 if the Fed takes a more measured approach to let the global markets deflate a bit before taking any aggressive actions.The US Financial sector will likely continue to benefit from price volatility and consumer demand as these deflationary trends prompt consumers to engage in more normal economic activities. The Financial sector also has continued to stay under moderate pricing pressure since the 2008 highs. XLF is only 25.46% higher than the 2008 highs, whereas the NASDAQ is more than 575% above the 2008 market highs.The Financial Sector may be one of the strongest market sectors over the next few years. Deflationary trends push consumers and global markets away from excess debt levels and towards more traditional economic activities/trends.Want To Learn More About Financial Sector ETFs?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

USDCAD breaks higherThe Canadian dollar slipped after the BOC kept interest rates unchanged. Its US counterpart found support at 1.2560 after a brief pullback.An oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters. The current rebound is a sign that there is a strong interest in pushing for a bullish reversal. 1.2700 is a key supply zone as it coincides with the 30-day moving average.A breakout would definitely turn sentiment around and trigger a runaway rally. In turn, this sets the daily resistance at 1.2810 as the next target.NZDUSD continues lowerThe New Zealand dollar steadied after the Q4 CPI beat expectations.However, the pair is still in bearish territory after it broke below the lower end (0.6750) of the flag consolidation from the daily time frame. The RSI’s oversold situation brought in a buying-the-dips crowd around 0.6660 but its breach indicates a lack of buying interest.The kiwi is now testing November 2020’s low at 0.6600. The bears could be waiting to fade the next bounce with 0.6700 as a fresh resistance.XAUUSD pulls back for supportGold tumbled after the US Fed signaled it may raise interest rates in March. The rally stalled at 1853 and a break below the resistance-turned-support at 1830 flushed some buyers out.1810 at the base of the previous bullish breakout is a second line of defense. The short-term uptrend may still be intact as long as the metal stays above this key support.A deeper correction would drive the price down to the daily support at 1785. The bulls need a rebound above 1838 to regain control of price action.

Wild FOMC day is over, and markets are repricing the perceived fresh hawkishness when there was none really. It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation – as the Fed just stood pat, open oil profits are rising.But stocks took a dive before recovering, carving out a fourth in a row lower knot – the bulls are invited to participate, and open stock market profits are moving up again. Also note the divergence between HYG trading at its recent lows while S&P 500 clearly isn‘t. The immediate pressure would be to go higher, and that concerns also copper, and to a smaller degree cryptos. All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity.That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookSetback and reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is though still carving out a tradable bottom. I‘m looking for the index to return above 4,400 and then take on the 4,500 point of control next.Credit MarketsHYG reversed, the panic is there – higher yields across the board without a clear risk-on turn holding. Today is a time for reprieve.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge. The metals are anticipating the upcoming liquidity squeeze, which won‘t be pretty until the Fed changes course. Not that it truly started, for that matter.Crude OilCrude oil bulls have confirmed they were back, and are ready for more – clearly not daunted by the Fed messaging, and that has implications for inflation ahead. It would really be more persistent than generally appreciated, I‘m telling you.CopperCopper is still in the catching breath phase – not yielding, and that‘s still saying something about inflation and real economy.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are on guard, and ready to move somewhat higher next – for now, lacking conviction, there is no Ethereum outperformance either.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are ready to come back, and prove that the first FOMC move, is the fake one – no, I don‘t mean the moonshot to 4,450 in the first moments. That would be the move I‘m looking for still, and it would be led by the coming tech upswing. Check the commodities resilience to the rising rates prospects – gold and silver need a reprieve in bonds badly to catch breath again, and it would come at the expense of the dollar. For now, markets are afraid of the looming liquidity crunch and Fed policy mistake as the yield curve continues compressing.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDJPY tests major resistance The Japanese yen inched higher after January’s Tokyo CPI beat expectations. The US dollar found support in the daily demand zone around 113.50. And that is a sign that upbeat sentiment in the medium-term remains intact. A close above the psychological level of 115.00 attracted momentum traders and sped up the rebound. 115.60 at the origin of the January liquidation is key resistance. In fact, its breach could put the uptrend back on track. The RSI’s overextension may cause a limited pullback with 114.50 as the closest support. USOIL breaks to new high Oil climbed amid fears of disruption as tensions between Russia and the West grew. After a short-lived pause, WTI crude saw bids near a previous low at 82.00 which lies on the 20-day moving average. A break above the January peak at 87.80 indicates solid interest in keeping the rally in shape. As the bulls’ run continued, more trend-followers would push the price to 89.00. An overbought RSI temporarily restrained the fever, and buyers could see a pullback towards 85.00 as an opportunity. SPX 500 struggles for support Upcoming US rate hike still weighs on equity markets. A tentative break below last October’s low (4300) has put the S&P 500 on the defense. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart shows that sentiment could be deteriorating as price action struggles to stabilize. An oversold RSI led to a limited rebound as intraday sellers took profit. Nonetheless, buyers should be wary of catching a falling knife, leaving the index vulnerable to another sell-off if it drops below 4230. 4490 is the first resistance to clear to initiate a recovery.

The year 2022 is seemingly a mixed bag, even as markets start reopening. The year looks promising, though, with issues like inflation and COVID to contemplate. Historic rallies in 2021 after lockdowns are looking to inspire trading in various industries, with some assets to look out for by investors. Growth will surely return at some point, but so will disappointing instances where tumbles will dominate trading desks. The S & P's historic gains of 30 percent dominated the press at the close of 2021, making investors using Naga and other optimistic platforms. The ended year had one of the longest bull markets. However, the Fed rate tightening and the direction the pandemic will take are some things to expect, notwithstanding that the stock market might grow by a whopping 10 percent in 2022. Trading Movements In Week One 2022 European markets have opened with a lot of optimism in 2022, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed at 489.99 points; this is 0.5 percent higher than the opening figure. The European benchmark was some percentage lower than the overall S&P 2021 performance, though with a surge of 22.4 percent. Record gains in the stock markets have relied on the positions taken by the governments during the pandemic. In the USA and Europe, increasing vaccination rates and economic stimulus measures have improved investor confidence. However, there are indications for more volatility in 2022, a situation investors must watch keenly. There has been little activity in London markets in the first week of 2022, while in Italy, France, and Spain gains of between 0.5-1.4 percent made notable highlights. European markets had diverse industries drive up the closing gains witnessed; the airline sector, in particular, has had a significant influence. Germany’s Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) had an impressive 8.8 percent jump while Air France KLM (AIRF.PA), a 4.9 percent gain. Factory activity is another factor to thank for the first week's gains all over Europe. Noteworthy, the Omicron variant influenced trading in the entirety of December, but the reports that it is milder than Delta has energized market activities coming into January. S&P and DOW Jones 2022 First Week Highs Across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a record high, highlighting a similar aggressiveness as the European markets. While the jump was industrial-wide, Tech stocks continued to dominate, as Apple finally touched the $3 trillion valuation, though for a short time. Tesla Inc. (TSLA.O) posted a 13.5 percent jump thanks to increased production in China and an unprecedented goal to surpass its target. The US market, like the European market, is also in a fix; the Omicron variant of COVID-19 continues to cause concern with the wait-and-see approach, the only notable strategy. Currently, every country is reporting a jump in the number of Covid cases, with the UK going above 100K cases for the first time and the US recording some new records as well. School delays and increased isolation by key workers will surely debilitate the markets, with the global chip shortage another point to contemplate. However, markets can still ride on the increased development of therapies to help fight Covid. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (CDC) has been quick, as now children can have their third doses as well. Industries to Look Out For In 2022 European automakers have seen early peaks, while the airline sector has also picked up fast. In the US, tech shares continue to dominate, and 2022 might witness new records never seen before. However, the energy sectors have also dominated the news in 2021, and in 2022; the confidence in them will continue to rise because of an anticipation of stabilization in energy prices. The same goes for crude oil prices. Regardless, shareholders will continue watching the decisions by the Federal Reserve, a review in the current interest rates will surely tame inflation. Conclusion 2022 will see its highs and lows in investments. Some assets will make the news and investors will be keen to use any information to make key decisions. Tech will continue to shine, but it is important to anticipate the direction of the pandemic, as it will be an important factor in investor decisions.

The US dollar rewrote its 1.5-year highs on Thursday, sending EURUSD under 1.1150. After the FOMC meeting, the pair fell in total by 1.5%, leaving a two-month consolidation with a sharp movement. Friday's small rollback from extremes is likely a local profit fixation by the end of the week and month. History suggests that the US currency begins to add about 2-3 quarters before the first rate hike and continues to be in positive territory for about the same time after. We believe that this long story should be adjusted to the new reality in which interest rates are the starting point. Namely, the first point of tightening monetary conditions is now the beginning of the curtailment of purchases on the balance sheet and not the first increase. The start of the dollar's growth last year was the beginning of a public discussion of curtailment. And now, seven months later, the dollar is halfway up with an 8.5% increase from the area of last year's lows. The second half of this wave is unlikely to be as powerful. We only assume that the dollar has a 3-4% growth potential in the area of 100.3-101 due to monetary policy changes. This will return the US currency to the area of steady highs in 2020, excluding two weeks of the most violent market crash. The EURUSD rate in this scenario may fall to 1.07-1.08 before finding a more substantial base of buyers. However, investors and traders should also remember that monetary policy is far from the only driver for currencies. The markets' attention can quickly switch to the debt sustainability of the Eurozone countries and the pace of economic recovery in the world.

  Gold’s fate in 2021 will be determined mainly by inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it. In the epic struggle between chaos and order, chaos has an easier task, as there is usually only one proper method to do a job – the job that you can screw up in many ways. Thus, although economists see a strong economic expansion with cooling prices and normalization in monetary policies in 2022, many things could go wrong. The Omicron strain of coronavirus or its new variants could become more contagious and deadly, pushing the world into the Great Lockdown again. The real estate crisis in China could lead the country into recession, with serious economic consequences for the global economy. Oh, by the way, we could see an escalation between China and Taiwan, or between China and the US, especially after the recent test of hypersonic missiles by the former country. Having said that, I believe that the major forces affecting the gold market in 2022 will be – similarly to last year’s – inflation and the Fed’s response to it. Considering things in isolation, high inflation should be supportive of gold prices. The problem here is that gold prefers high and rising inflation. Although the inflation rate should continue its upward move for a while, it’s likely to peak this year. Indeed, based on very simple monetarist reasoning, I expect the peak to be somewhere in the first quarter of 2022. This is because the lag between the acceleration in money supply growth (March 2020) and CPI growth (March 2021) was a year. The peak in the former occurred in February 2021, as the chart below shows. You can do the math (by the way, this is the exercise that turned out to be too difficult for Jerome Powell and his “smart” colleagues from the Fed). This is – as I’ve said – very uncomplicated thinking that assumes the stability of the lag between monetary impulses and price reactions. However, given the Fed’s passive reaction to inflation and the fact that the pace of money supply growth didn’t return to the pre-pandemic level, but stayed at twice as high, the peak in inflation may occur later. In other words, more persistent inflation is the major risk for the economy that many economists still downplay. The consensus expectation is that inflation returns to a level close to the Fed’s target by the end of the year. For 2021, the forecasts were similar. Instead, inflation has risen to about 7%. Thus, never underestimate the power of the inflation dragon, especially if the beast is left unchecked! As everyone knows, dragons love gold – and this feeling is mutual. The Saxo Bank, in its annual “Outrageous Predictions”, sees the potential for US consumer prices to rise 15% in 2022, as “companies bid up wages in an effort to find willing and qualified workers, triggering a wage-price spiral unlike anything seen since the 1970’s”. Actually, given the fact that millions of Americans left the labor market – which the Fed doesn’t understand and still expects that they will come back – this prediction is not as extreme as one could expect. I still hope that inflationary pressure will moderate this year, but I’m afraid that the fall may not be substantial. On the other hand, we have the Fed with its hawkish rhetoric and tapering of quantitative easing. The US central bank is expected to start a tightening cycle, hiking the federal funds rate at least twice this year. It doesn’t sound good for gold, does it? A hawkish Fed implies a stronger greenback and rising real interest rates, which is negative for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession, with the infamous “taper tantrum”, was very supportive of the US dollar but lethal for gold. However, the price of gold bottomed in December 2015, exactly when the Fed hiked the interest rates for the first time after the global financial crisis. Markets are always future-oriented, so they often react more to expected rather than actual events. Another thing is that the Fed’s tightening cycle of 2015-2018 was dovish and the federal funds rate (and the Fed’s balance sheet) never returned to pre-crisis levels. The same applies to the current situation: despite all the hawkish reactions, the Fed is terribly behind the curve. Last but not least, history teaches us that a tightening Fed spells trouble for markets. As a reminder, the last tightening cycle led to the reversal of the yield curve in 2019 and the repo crisis, which forced the US central bank to cut interest rates, even before anyone has heard of covid-19. Hence, the Fed is in a very difficult situation. It either stays behind the curve, which risks letting inflation get out of control, or tightens its monetary policy in a decisive manner, just like Paul Volcker did in the 1980s, which risks a correction of already-elevated asset prices and the next economic crisis. Such expectations have boosted gold prices since December 2015, and they could support the yellow metal today as well. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

Tesla stock swung around violently post the earnings release. TSLA shares quickly dropped 6% despite beating earnings estimates. Tesla then recovered to trade down 2% as buyers stepped in. Tesla (TSLA) swung around pretty wildly in the after-hours market on Wednesday following its earnings release. The stock dropped 6% fairly rapidly despite beating on the top and bottom lines. Buyers then went bargain hunting as the market struggled to grasp what metric to focus on. By the time things settled down, we were nearly back to where things started. At the time of writing, Tesla is back to $930 in the premarket on Thursday, so only $7 or less than 1% lower from where Tesla stock was trading at the close of the regular session and before the earnings drop. Tesla Stock News Tesla beat on earnings per share (EPS), coming in at $2.54 versus the $2.26 average estimate. Revenue also beat forecasts, coming in at $17.72 billion versus the $16.35 billion estimate. This was a pretty strong performance beat on both top and bottom lines. Margins also held up well, coming in at 30.8% versus estimates for 30%. So far so good. However, Tesla then mentioned that its factories were not at full capacity and it saw this continuing into 2022. Supply chain issues were to blame, and investors took a dim view of this and sold the stock sharply lower. However, buyers then stepped in as arguments over demand versus supply issues surfaced. The demand profile remains strong and Tesla stuck to its strong outlook for demand going forward. If it can address supply issues and with new factories in Texas and Berlin coming on line, it may be in a position to drive more supply to meet demand. It is certainly better to have a problem meeting demand than it is to have a lack of demand. This is a case of "if you build it, they will come" for Tesla going forward. Tesla Stock Forecast TSLA bottomed out at $879 after the release, but in reality it spent very little time down there. This is interesting to us on a technical view as it prints a higher low than Monday's sell-off and puts in place the potential for a bottoming formation. From the 4-hour chart below we can see this price action in play. The lows from Monday at $855 are our short-term pivot. Above there things have a chance to turn bullish in a more medium-term view. Below and it is on to $813 to test the 200-day moving average. Tesla chart, 4 hourly

The Russian ruble rolled back yesterday with a sharp movement from the iconic round levels. Such a reversal often signifies the end of the previous trend and the beginning of a new movement. If you look at USDRUB only as a course chart, then the corrective momentum has the potential to return the pair to 75 from the current 78 over the next couple of weeks. Seasonality, or rather the macroeconomic environment, is also turning towards the ruble. Exporters will have to convert last year's record earnings to pay taxes, some of which are paid once a year. The weakening of the ruble since the beginning of the year is a good opportunity to add interest to profits due to exchange rate differences. This is all in addition to record oil prices for 8 years and the suspension of foreign currency purchases for the Finance Ministry. We should also not forget about the high interest rates that the Bank of Russia has been aggressively raising since March last year. And the markets are waiting for another 100-point increase in two weeks to 9.5%, which further increases the profitability of the ruble money market. But, unfortunately, fundamental and macroeconomic factors are far from being the only components of the complex exchange rate equation. Geopolitics also play an important role. A clear improvement in relations between countries and the issue around Ukraine has not yet developed. Worse still, investors remain alert that the rhetoric of US and EU officials on the one hand and Russia on the other can quickly fall out of the constructive rut. At the same time, experienced market participants know that when the level of uncertainty rolls over, market dynamics (up or down at the end of the day) is the best filter for the news noise around us.

The recent Fed comments should have helped settle the global market expectations related to if and when the Fed will start raising rates and/or taking further steps to curb inflation trends. Additionally, the Fed has been telegraphing its intentions very clearly over the past few months, providing ample time for traders and investors to alter their approach to pending monetary tightening actions. Read the full Fed Statement here.In my opinion, foreign markets are more likely to see increased risks and declining price trends for two reasons. First, at-risk nations/borrowers struggle to reduce debt levels. Second, foreign market traders/investors struggle to adapt to the transition away from speculative “growth” trends. I think the US Dollar may continue to show strength over the next 4+ months as the foreign traders pile into US economic strength while the Fed initiates their tightening actions. So it makes sense to me that global markets would recoil from Fed tightening while debt-heavy corporations/nations seek relief from rising debt obligations.Foreign Markets Struggle For Support Before US Fed Monetary TighteningIn a continuing downward slide, global market equity indexes continue to move lower after the US Fed comments this week. In this article, I wrote about this dynamic on August 3, 2021: US Markets Stall Near End Of July As Global Markets Retreat - Are We Ready For An August Surprise? At that time, I suggested the US markets were stalling while the global markets continued to decline.Now, nearly five months later, we've seen the US market trend moderately higher, attempting to struggle to new highs and exhibit deep downward price trends, while the global markets have continued to trend lower. As we move closer to the US Fed pushing interest rates higher, I expect these trends to become even more volatile and pronounced.US Equities May Find Support After The Fed Raises RatesThe current dynamic in the global markets is that capital is seeking investments where safety and profitable returns dominate over risks. As the global markets transition ahead of the Fed rate increases, I believe the US markets will continue to dominate global assets in opportunities, safety, and returns. Once the Fed starts to raise interest rates, a brief period of volatility throughout the global markets may occur. Still, that volatility should quickly settle as traders chase a stronger US Dollar, US Dollar-based Dividends, and a potential “melt-up” of the US Equity market (particularly the Dow Jones, S&P500, and possibly the Russell 2000).Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!Unless the US Fed takes very aggressive action in raising rates too quickly, I believe, at least initially, the US equity markets will continue to benefit from perceived strengths compared to many global equities/indexes.This means there will be many opportunities for traders and investors in 2022 and 2023 – we have to be patient in waiting for the chance to profit from these big trends. Jumping ahead of this volatility could be dangerous if you are on the wrong side of the price trend. Instead, wait for the right opportunities while you protect your capital from extreme risks. Let the markets tell you when opportunities are perfect – don't try to force a trade to happen.On December 28, 2021, I published this research article showing how my Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Predictive Modeling system expects price to trend in 2022 and early 2023: Predictive Modeling Suggests 710 Rally In SPY And QQQ Before April 2022. I strongly suggest taking a look at the recent downside price trends in relation to the lower range of the ADL Predictive Modeling expectations. If my ADL Predictive Modeling system is accurate, we may see a relatively strong recovery in the US stock market throughout the rest of 2022 and beyond.Strategies To Help You Protect And Grow Your WealthLearn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

S&P 500 upswing attempt rejected, again – and credit markets didn‘t pause, with the dollar rush being truly ominous. Sign of both the Fed being taken seriously, and of being afraid (positioned for) the adverse tightening consequences. Bonds are bleeding, the yield curve flattening, and VIX having trouble declining. As stated yesterday: (...) It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation. Not even the shock and awe 50bp hike in Mar would make a dent as crude oil prices virtually guarantee inflation persistence beyond 2022. The red hot Treasury and dollar markets are major headwinds as the S&P 500 is cooling off (in a very volatile way) for a major move. As we keep chopping between 4,330s and 4,270s, the bulls haven‘t been yet overpowered. I keep looking to bonds and USD for direction across all markets. I also wrote yesterday: (...) All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity. That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Another setback with reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is chopping in preparation for the upcoming move. Concerningly, the bears are overpowering the bulls on a daily basis increasingly more while Bollinger Bands cool down to accommodate the next move. Direction will be decided in bonds. Credit Markets HYG keeps collapsing but the volume is drying up, which means we could see a reprieve – happening though at lower levels than earlier this week. Quality debt instruments are pausing already, indicatively. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge, and TLT looks ready to pause. The metals keep chopping sideways in the early tightening phase, which is actually quite a feat. Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and its upswing looks ready to go on unimpeded, and that has implications for inflation ahead. Persistent breed, let me tell you. Copper Copper is in danger of losing some breath – the GDP growth downgrades aren‘t helping. The red metal though remains range bound, patiently waiting to break out. Will take time. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are pointing lower again, losing altitude – not yet a buying proposition. Summary S&P 500 bulls wasted another opportunity to come back – the FOMC consequences keep biting as fears of a hawkish Fed are growing. Tech still can‘t get its act together, and neither can bonds – these are the decisive factors for equities. As liquidity is getting scarce while the Fed hadn‘t really moved yet, risk-on assets are under pressure thanks to frontrunning the Fed. The room for a surprising rebound in stocks is however still there, given how well the 4,270s are holding in spite of the HYG plunge. And given the recent quality debt instruments pause, it looks approaching. Look for a dollar decline next to confirm the upcoming risk-on upswing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Apple stock surges after a strong earnings release. AAPL popped 2% on the numbers, and this move has continued. Apple could turn the entire market sentiment around. Apple (AAPL) dropped earnings after the close last night, and they amounted to a blow out. There had been some talk of record numbers and iPhone sales prior to the release, but this set of earnings surprised even the most bullish previews. The stock immediately popped 2% and stabilized but has since added another 2% to its after-market gains and is currently at $165.79 in Friday's premarket. This marks a 4% gain on the regular session close from Thursday. This big question is whether Apple (AAPL) can turn the entire market sentiment around. It is after all the biggest company in the world with the highest weighting in the main S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices. It certainly has the potential to call a bottom to this miserable start to 2022. Apple Stock News Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.10 versus the average estimate of $1.88. Revenue also beat estimates, hitting $123.9 billion versus $118.28 billion. The closely watched iPhone revenue number hit $71.63 billion and represents just under 58% of Apple's total revenue. Gross margins increased from 39.8% to 43.8% yearly. On the conference call post earnings, CEO Tim Cook said he sees this margin remaining strong in Q2 2022 to 43% at the midpoint of projections. However, the March quarter is traditionally the slowest of the year earnings wise due to the post-holiday season lull in sales activity. CFO Luca Maestri addressed the key question of supply chain issues, saying chip issues are only a problem for mostly older models and that problems have eased. Tim Cook said the supply chain is doing well. Overall, this was exactly what the market needed: blowout earnings with a significant beat. The earnings call offered strong revenue and most importantly positive commentary around the supply chain and semiconductor chip issues. We will likely see multiple analyst upgrades as the day progresses. Apple Stock Forecast This now becomes a key barometer for the broad market. AAPL should stabilize and appreciate further from here based on these results. If this current rally fails and fades, then truly we are entering a correction phase. For now, $157 remains key support. This is the high from September and also the 100-day moving average. Hold here and we can then target $167.63 and then onto record highs. Also note how the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold by traditional metrics at 30 (we prefer to use 20) and how the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also at lows with the histogram at the widest we have seen for some time. All of these are indicators of oversold conditions. Everything looks set up for a turnaround. The only caveat is the overall market sentiment. Apple (AAPL) chart, daily

Decentraland price looks to be set to close the week in profit. MANA price action went against the tide, with global markets nervous and still jitters after the Fed tightening announcement. A weekly close above the S1 and Fibonacci low should trigger a return to the upside. Decentraland (MANA) price has been on the front foot in a challenging market environment. MANA bulls look ready to eke out 28% of gains for this week after the price lifted from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and is now set to pop and stay above the monthly S1 support level. Expect more investors to join the rally once the MANA price can consolidate above the S1 and set $2.57 later today as the price target. MANA price set for 15% price hike Decentraland was forming a falling knife last week but got picked up after the bounce off the $1.67 handle and went against the tide this week as the 200-day SMA around $2.0 offered a window of opportunity for more bulls to extend the recovery. In a slow grind, price action again space and lifted MANA 28% until Decentraland price is hovering. As bulls are now trying to consolidate above the monthly S1 at $2.24, and with that as well reentered the Fibonacci retracement to all-time highs. MANA price is yet still far away from any all-time highs. Global markets still look very much on edge, but that does not mean that Decentraland price action will disappoint to the upside. Expect more investors to come in during the US session if MANA price can stay above $2.24. That trigger and inflow will see price action propel further upwards to tick $2.57, the low from December 04 and set as an easy profit target to be reached. MANA/USD daily chart The monthly S1 can be proven slippery when wet, and price action could easily slide back below, triggering bulls to take their money and run. MANA price would be plie back against the 200-day SMA, break it and fulfill the swing trade towards $1.67. Would the swing lower trigger an even more aggressive selloff from bulls and investors, expect a short overshoot towards $1.28, just above the monthly S2.

S&P 500 left the 4,270s - 4,330s range with an upside breakout – after bonds finally caught some bid. While in risk-on posture, divergencies to stocks abound – any stock market advance would leave S&P 500 in a more precarious position than when the break above 4,800 ATHs fizzled out. But a stock market advance we would have, targeting 4,500 followed by possibly 4,600. The sizable open long profits can keep growing. Only the market internals would be poor, so better don‘t look at the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, and similar metrics. Enough to say that Friday‘s advance was sparked by the Apple news. When it‘s only the generals that are advancing while much of the rest remains in shambles, Houston has a problem – we aren‘t there yet. Fed‘s Kashkari also helped mightily on Friday – that implicit rates backpedalling was more than helpful. Pity that precious metals haven‘t noticed (I would say yet) – but remember the big picture and don‘t despair, we‘re just going sideways before the inevitable breakout higher. Back to rates and the Fed, there is a key difference between the tightening of 2018 and now – the economy was quite robust with blood freely flowing, crucially without raging inflation. With the Fed sorely behind the curve by at least a year, it‘ll have to move faster and have lower sensibility to market selloffs caused. Stiff headwinds ahead as liquidity gets tighter. Couple that with resilient oil – more profits taken off the table Friday at $88.30 – and you‘ve got a pretty resilient inflation. Not that inflation expectations would be shaking in their boots, not that commodities would be cratering. It‘s only copper (influencing silver) that has to figure out just how overdone its Friday‘s move had been. Not that other base metals would be that pessimistic. Similarly to precious metals and the early tightening phase, commodities would be under temporary pressure as well, but outperforming as we officially enter stagflation. Not too tough to imagine given the GDP growth downgrades. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Great finish to the week, but S&P 500 bulls have quite a job ahead – it continues being choppy out there. I‘m still looking at bonds with tech for direction. Credit Markets HYG finally turned around, and Friday was a risk-on day. The question remains how far can the retracement (yes, it‘s retracement only) reach – can the pre-FOMC highs be approached? Could be, could be. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver retreated, but no chart damage was done – things are still going sideways as the countdown is on for the Fed to either tighten too much and send markets crashing, or reverse course (again). Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and why should it be given that it can‘t be printed. Some backing and filling is ahead before the uptrend reasserts itself. Copper Copper is the only red flag, and seeing it rebound would call off the amber light. This is the greatest non-confirmation of the commodities direction in quite a while, and that‘s why I‘m taking it with more than a pinch of salt. Bitcoin and Ethereum Crypto bulls are putting up a little fight as the narrow range trading continues – I‘m not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Summary S&P 500 bulls finally moved in an otherwise volatile and choppy week. For the days ahead, volatility is likely to calm down somewhat, but chop is likely to be with us still – only that I expect it to be of the bullish flavor. 10-year Treasury yield has calmed down, and that would be constructive for stocks – watch next for the 2-year to take notice likewise. The 2-year Treasury is quite sensitive to the anticipated Fed moves, and illustrates well the rate hike fears – coupled with the compressed 10-year to 2-year ratio, we‘re looking at rising expectation of the Fed policy mistake (in tightening too much, too fast). For now though, stocks can recover somewhat, and most of the commodities can keep on appreciating. Precious metals keep being in the waiting game, very resilient, and will turn out one of the great bullish surprises of 2022. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution The Plan: It is an election year when Democrats will project political pressure upon the Federal Reserve to not risk through aggressive policy changes a stock market collapse to keep their votes. As a result, more money printing expands inflation, which supports the interest for bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Should we see in opposition for whatever reason a rapid stock market decline, the investor would unlikely be interested in owning stock or bonds. While initially, bitcoin prices would likely fall alongside the markets, money will likely flow into bitcoin shortly afterward. The execution: With bitcoins prices suppressed from their recent decline (down 52% from its last all-time high at around US$69,000), we have another edge for minimizing exposure risk. BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, high likely turning points: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 31st, 2022. The chart above depicts five supply zones we have our eye on. We will try identifying low-risk entry points on smaller time frames at or near these points and reduce risk further with our quad exit strategy. We already had entries near zone 1 and 2 and posted those live in our free Telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, bitcoin, the plan, and its execution, reload trading: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2022. Once the more significant time frame turning point is identified (white arrow), we will add what we call ‘reload’ trades (see chart above) on the smaller weekly time frame. We do so by identifying low-risk entries in congestion zones (yellow boxes) on the way up. We aim to arrive near the elections in November with a sizable position that is due to our exit strategy being risk-free. Playing with the market’s money will allow for positive execution psychology and ease us to observe our position through an expected volatility period, with further profit-taking into possible volatile upswings that are only temporary in nature. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, long-term profit potential: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of February 1st, 2022. While this year’s midterm trading on the long side of the bitcoin market could provide for substantial income from the 50% profit-taking of each individual trade and reload based on our quad exit strategy, the real goal is to have a remaining position size that could potentially go to unfathomable heights, since we see in the long term the inflation problem not going away but rather culminating in a bitcoin rise that could be substantially much larger in percentage than alternative inflation hedges like real estate, gold, silver and alike. Not to say that we find it also essential to hold these asset classes for wealth preservation. The quarterly chart above illustrates the potential of such a position. We illustrated both in time (six years) and price (US$ 134,000) our most conservative model in this chart. Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution: We see no scenario where inflation is just going away. The above narrative shows that a short-term fueling of inflation is likely. Furthermore, a high-risk scenario is fueling inflation even more. Should markets decline rapidly, it can be expected that money printing and buying up the market is the most predominant solution applied. Consequently, the average investor would wake up relieved that prices wouldn’t decline any further but liquidating their holdings in a further inflated fiat currency will have massively decreased purchasing power. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

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Palantir stock rises by nearly 8% on Monday. PLTR shares have suffered from the hawkish Fed and risk aversion. Palantir could see a rally as risk assets see inflows. Palantir (PLTR) is back on the minds of traders as retail interest stocks finally catch a bid in this new environment. Meme and retail interest stocks have been hammered so far in 2022. Most, if not all, of these stocks are high growth, unprofitable and highly speculative names, and the momentum has dried up in this sector in 2022. The Fed has pivoted to a strongly hawkish stance, and markets are pricing in five rate hikes this year. Palantir has fallen 25% so far this year and nearly 50%over the last three months. Palantir Stock News The meme and retail space staged a recovery yesterday as some end-of-month position covering saw some positive flows. Added to this was a more risk-on tone following from Apple's strong earnings late last week and in anticipation of more big tech earnings this week. AMC then whetted risk appetites further this morning when it released revenue numbers that were ahead of analysts' forecasts. AMC shares popped 14% and dragged many retail and meme stocks along with them. All this should contribute to more gains for Palantir on Tuesday as momentum is key for these names. Adding to this and more stock-specific is that Palantir and Satellogic (SATL) announced a strategic partnership. "Combining the forces of Palantir’s Edge AI technology with Satellogic’s frequent high-resolution imagery will give users actionable insight faster than ever, accelerating their operations from space to mud," said Shyam Sankar, COO of Palantir. "The holistic capabilities of Palantir's Foundry will be instrumental in helping Satellogic realize our mission to improve life on Earth through geospatial data,” said Matthew Tirman, President of Satellogic North America. “ Satellogic will provide Palantir’s US government customers with ready access to Satellogic’s high-resolution satellite imagery to drive analytical insights across a range of mission-oriented use cases.” Satellogic only recently went public via a SPAC deal, listing on the NASDAQ on January 26. We do not have details of the financial side of the partnership or the impact on Palantir's revenue streams. The partnership is for five years, and the companies already have an existing collaboration. All this makes it less significant in our view as it is merely an add-on to an existing relationship between the two companies. Investors are pushing the news aggressively on social media. Palantir Stock Forecast We do note the oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on January 27 with it dipping below 20. Oversold readings are usually below 30 for the RSI, but 20 eliminates false signals. This then worked well, and today's move is likely to see more gains. Breaking $13.61 gets PLTR shares above the 9-day moving average, and the next resistance is at $15 from both the yearly VWAP and 21-day moving average. The VWAP is the volume-weighted average price. Palantir (PLTR) chart, daily

S&P 500 pushed sharply higher, squeezing not only tech bears even if yields didn‘t move much – bonds actually ran into headwinds before the closing bell. With my 4,500 target reached, the door has opened to consolidation of prior steep gains, and that would be accompanied by lower volatility days till before the positioning for Friday‘s non-farm payrolls is complete as talked on Sunday. So, we have an S&P 500 rally boosting our open profits while the credit market‘s risk-on posture is getting challenged, and divergencies to stocks abound – as I wrote yesterday: (…) any stock market advance would leave S&P 500 in a more precarious position than when the break above 4,800 ATHs fizzled out. But a stock market advance we would have, targeting 4,500 followed by possibly 4,600. We‘re getting there, the bulls haven‘t yet run out of steam, but it‘s time to move closer to the exit door while still dancing. But the key focus remains the Fed dynamic: (…) Fed‘s Kashkari ... helped mightily on Friday – that implicit rates backpedalling was more than helpful. Pity that precious metals haven‘t noticed (I would say yet) – but remember the big picture and don‘t despair, we‘re just going sideways before the inevitable breakout higher. Back to rates and the Fed, there is a key difference between the tightening of 2018 and now – the economy was quite robust with blood freely flowing, crucially without raging inflation. With the Fed sorely behind the curve by at least a year, it‘ll have to move faster and have lower sensibility to market selloffs caused. Stiff headwinds ahead as liquidity gets tighter. Suffice to say that precious metals did notice yesterday, and copper looks ready to work off its prior odd downswing. Remember that commodities keep rising (hello the much lauded agrifoods) while oil enteredd temporary sideways consolidation. Look for other base metals to help the red one higher – the outlook isn‘t pessimistic in the least as the recognition we have entered stagflation, would grow while the still compressing yield curve highlights growing conviction of Fed policy mistake. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls proved their upper hand yesterday, and the question is where would the upswing stall – or at least pause. Ahead soon, still this week. Credit Markets HYG caught a bid yesterday too, but the sellers have awakened – it appears the risk-on trades would be tested soon again. Bonds are certainly less optimistic than stocks at this point, but the S&P 500 rickety ride can still continue, and diverge from bonds. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver retreat was indeed shallow, did you back up the truck? The chart hasn‘t flipped bearish, and I stand by the earlier call that PMs would be one of the great bullish surprises of 2022. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls rejected more downside, but I‘m not looking for that to last – however shallow the upcoming pullback, it would present a buying opportunity, and more profits on top of those taken recently. Copper Expect copper‘s recent red flag to be dealt with decisively, and for higher prices to prevail. Other base metals have likewise room to join in as $4.60 would be taken on once again. At the same time, the silver to copper ratio would move in the white metal‘s favor after having based since the Aug 2020 PMs top called. Bitcoin and Ethereum As stated yesterday, crypto bulls are putting up a little fight as the narrow range trading continues – I‘m not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Time for a downside reversal is approaching. Summary S&P 500 bulls made a great run yesterday, and short covering was to a good deal responsible. Given the credit market action, I‘m looking for the pace of gains to definitely decelerate, and for the 500-strong index to consolidate briefly. VIX is likely to keep calming down before rising again on Friday. Should credit markets agree, the upcoming chop would be of the bullish flavor, especially if oil prices keep trading guardedly. And that looks to be the case, and the rotation into tech can go on – $NYFANG doing well is one of the themes for the environment of slowing GDP growth rates, alongside precious metals and commodities embracing inflation with both arms. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Gold fought valiantly, gold fought nobly, gold fought honorably. Despite all this sacrifice, it lost the battle. How will it handle the next clashes? Have you ever felt trapped in the tyranny of the status quo? Have you ever felt constrained by some invisible yet powerful forces trying to thwart the fullest realization of your potential? I guess this is what gold would feel like right now – if metals could feel anything, of course. Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, January looked to be quite good for the yellow metal. Its price surpassed the key level of $1,800 at the end of 2021, rallying from $1,793 to $1,847 on January 25, 2022. Then the evil FOMC published its hawkish statement on monetary policy. In its initial response, gold slid. That’s true, but it bravely defended its positions above $1,800 during both Wednesday and Thursday. There was still hope. However, on Friday, the metal capitulated and plunged to $1,788. Here we are again – below the level of $1,800 that gold hasn’t been able to exceed for more than several days since mid-2021, as the chart below shows. Am I disappointed? A bit. Naughty goldie! Am I surprised? Not at all. Although I cheered the recent rally, I was unconvinced about its sustainability in the current macroeconomic context, i.e., economic recovery with tightening of monetary policy (the surprisingly positive report on GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 didn’t probably help gold), rising interest rates, and possibly a not-distant peak in inflation. In the previous edition of the Fundamental Gold Report, I described the Fed’s actions as “a big hawkish wave that could sink the gold bulls” and pointed out that “gold started its decline before the statement was published, which may indicate more structural weakness.” I added that it was also disturbing that “gold was hit even though the FOMC statement came largely as expected.” Last but not least, I concluded my report with a warning that “the upcoming weeks may be challenging for gold, which would have to deal with rising bond yields.” My warning came true very quickly. Of course, we cannot exclude a relatively swift rebound. After all, gold can be quite volatile in the short-term, and this year could be particularly turbulent for the yellow metal. However, I’m afraid that the balance of risks for gold is the downside. Next month (oh boy, it’s February already!), we will see the end of quantitative easing and the first hike in the federal funds rate, followed soon by the beginning of quantitative tightening and further rate hikes. Using its secret magic, the Fed has convinced the markets that it has become a congregation of hawks, or even a cult of the Great Hawk. According to the CME Fed Tool, future traders have started to price in five 25-basis-point raises this year, while some investors believe that the Fed will lift interest rates by 50 basis points in March. All these clearly hawkish expectations led to the rise in bond yields (see the chart below), creating downward pressure on gold.   Implications for Gold What does the recent plunge in gold prices imply for investors? Well, in a sense, nothing, as short-term price movements shouldn’t affect long-term investments. Trading and investing should be kept separate. However, gold’s return below $1,800 can disappoint even the biggest optimists. The yellow metal failed again. Not the first and not the last time, though. In my view, gold may struggle by March, as all these hawkish expectations will exert downward pressure on the yellow metal. In 2015, the first hike in the tightening cycle coincided with the bottom of the gold market. It may be similar this time, as the actual hike could ease some of the worst expectations and also push markets to think beyond their tightening horizon. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  While last week's geopolitical tensions have eased a bit, the OPEC+ members’ meeting knocks at the door. How will it affect crude inventories? Crude oil prices paused this morning in the European trading session, the day after a new technical increase linked to the expiration of futures contracts. OPEC+ members, including Russia, are due to hold a meeting tomorrow in which speculative talks suggest that OPEC+ could announce a quicker increase in supply. On the other hand, US crude inventories should be scrutinized this week, with the first figure to be released later today by the American Petroleum Institute (API) at 2130 GMT / 1530 Chicago Time. Therefore, we could see a new rise in crude stockpiles of 2 million barrels. As a result, the oil market could be set to start a pullback down to previous support – $ 85.80 could represent a level that would attract more bulls, eventually. Regarding OPEC+ output, Saudi Arabia could decide to add barrels on top of its quota, as the kingdom is one of the only members of the cartel able to ramp up production, if necessary. On the US dollar side, the recent rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil. The overall inverted/negative correlation between the USD and black gold could catch up now as we have a greenback sliding after less hawkish comments from the Fed than expected and a barrel located in overbought territory. On the geopolitical scene, the slight ease of tensions from the past week – or, at least, the diminution of anxiety inducing news in the mainstream media headlines – is characterized by decreasing volatility. The latter is thus marked by a volatility index (VIX) – aka “Fear Index” sliding just below 25 today. WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) In summary, after such a rally in January 2022 on crude oil prices, we may start to see a weakening of the momentum, which could result in correcting oil prices, if such a scenario of supply and demand dynamics is followed on both sides (input rise / stockpiles accumulation) of the market. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

AUDUSD recoups losses The Australian dollar recovered after the RBA signaled an end to its bond-buying program. The recent sell-off below the daily support and psychological level of 0.7000 further weighed on market sentiment. As the RSI dipped again into the oversold territory, short-term sellers’ profit-taking has driven the price higher. The bears could be looking to fade the current rebound unless the bulls succeed in pushing past 0.7180. 0.7030 is a fresh support and 0.6970 a major floor before June 2020’s lows near 0.6800. USDCAD tests support The Canadian dollar advanced after November’s GDP exceeded expectations. A break above the supply zone at 1.2730 has put the US counterpart back on track. Nonetheless, the rally came to a halt at the daily resistance at 1.2790. The greenback needed a breather as the surge prevented buyers from chasing after volatility. 1.2580 is a key support and an oversold RSI may raise buyers’ interest again. A close above the said resistance could propel the pair to December’s high at 1.2950. NZDUSD sees limited rebound The New Zealand dollar bounced back after the Q4 jobless rate dropped to 3.2%. The pair saw bids over September 2020’s lows around 0.6530. The RSI’s repeated oversold situation has caught bargain hunters’ attention. However, the directional bias remains bearish. The kiwi could find resistance at 0.6700 near the 20-day moving average as trend-followers look to sell into strength. 0.6400 would be the next target if the US dollar makes a comeback across the board.

Shiba Inu is seeing lower highs and lower lows compressing price action around $0.00002179. SHIB price is next set for a bullish breakout with several tailwinds present in equities. Expect for SHIB bulls to lift price action back above the 200-day SMA, potentially gaining 24%. Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been stuck in consolidation since January 22 with lower highs and higher lows, punching in both buyers and sellers towards each other with the scene set for a breakout. From the looks of it, that will be a bullish breakout, supported by tailwinds from global equities being on the front foot, with the Nasdaq leading the charge. Expect bulls to break above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the process, and try to reach $0.00002782, the 78.6% Fibonacci level. SHIB bullish breakout holding 28% gains Shiba Inu price may have had its low for the year after hitting $0.00001730 on January 22. Since then, the price has shifted a bit sideways around $0.00002170, with lower highs and higher lows going for consolidation between buyers and sellers. The price in SHIB is so condensed now that a breakout is due. As global markets are on the front foot and risk assets are leading the charge, these tailwinds will spin-off towards cryptocurrencies and set the stage for a bullish breakout towards $0.00002782 as target. SHIB price will, in that process, take out the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.00002562, which does not hold much importance seeing it only got breached on one occasion. Bulls will instead want to look out for $0.00002782, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci level and is an essential indicator that there might be an uptrend in the making. More upside will depend on how the tailwinds behave as the 55-day SMA looks quite heavy around $0.00003000. SHIB/USD daily chart Alternatively, the consolidation could still see a bearish breakout, with bears trapping bulls and running price action back to $0.00001730, or possibly even $0.00001500 back down onto the monthly S1 support level. The reason for the bearish breakout could come from very choppy economic data that could start to point to a global recession with elevated prices and job numbers worsening again. That would trigger a global risk-off wave that could put cryptocurrencies on the backfoot.

S&P 500 recoverd the opening setback at 4,500, and the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery. The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls prevailed, but the question still remains – where would the upswing stall, or at least pause? Still the same answer as yesterday - ahead soon, still this week. Credit Markets HYG reversed higher, and the pace of its coming gains, would be valuable information. Volume tells a story of a modest setback only thus far – greater battles await. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver staircase recovery goes on, showing that further retreat was indeed unlikely. The long consolidation would be resolved in a bullish way, it‘s only a question of time. Great performance this early in the tightening cycle – look for PMs upswings once the rate hikes get going. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls aren‘t wavering as the whole energy sector attests to. Black gold hasn‘t dipped yet below $86, and keeps marching and leading the other commodities $100 is approaching. Copper Copper‘s recent red flag was indeed dealt with decisively, and higher prices prevailed. Still great room to catch up with the rest after the preceding reprieve across other base metals as well. Bitcoin and Ethereum The narrow crypto trading range continues – I‘m still not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Time for a downside reversal is approaching – will happen just when Ethereum loses the bid. Summary S&P 500 bulls again scored gains yesterday, but the sectoral rotation and credit market turn would build a vulnerability going into Friday when value would suffer. Before that, I look for the bears to gradually start appearing again, taking probing bites, but not yet being decisive. VIX has some more room to decline indeed, confirming my earlier thoughts – the volatility return would happen on non-farm payrolls inducing a fresh guessing game as to the Mar rate hikes – 25 or 50bp? Inflation, precious metals and commodities would though still emerge victorious. For now, overall risk management is key – fresh portfolio high was reached yesterday. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

EUR/USD has been rising steadily since the beginning of the week. Annual HICP in the euro area came in much higher than expected in January. Euro could lose its bullish momentum if ECB downplays inflation concerns. The shared currency suffered heavy losses against the dollar last week after FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the Fed’s hawkish stance in the face of high inflation. Following a sharp decline to its lowest level since June 2020, however, EUR/USD managed to stage a decisive rebound during the first half of the week and advanced beyond 1.1300. In addition to renewed dollar weakness, hot inflation data from the euro area helped the pair push higher mid-week. Eurostat reported that annual inflation in the euro area, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), rose to 5.1% in January from 5% in December. This print came in higher than the market expectation of 4.4%. The Core HICP, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, edged lower to 2.3% from 2.6% but surpassed analysts’ estimate of 1.9%. With the first FOMC meeting out of the way, markets now await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy announcements and the euro could find it difficult to extend its rebound if investors are reminded of the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB. ECB on hold The ECB is widely expected to leave its policy settings unchanged following the February policy meeting. In December, the ECB confirmed that it will end the Pandemic Purchase Emergency Programme (PEPP) in March. To soften the policy transition, the ECB announced that it will increase the monthly purchases under the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) to €40 billion in Q2 and €30 billion in Q3 from the current level of €20 billion. The bank intends to maintain the APP purchases at a pace of €20 billion for “as long as necessary” from the last quarter of the year. While speaking at the press conference in December, ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from dismissing the possibility of a rate increase before the end of 2022 and helped the common currency stay resilient against its rivals for the remainder of the year. Commenting on the inflation outlook earlier in the month, several ECB members sounded relatively optimistic and EUR/USD struggled to preserve its bullish momentum. ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir noted that inflation in the eurozone was expected to peak in the “nearest months” before starting to decline. Moreover, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said that they are not yet seeing a big response from wages to inflation. Similarly, Lagarde explained that energy costs were rising due to temporary factors and added that there were no signs of wages being “bid up.” Hawkish scenario: In case Lagarde hints at the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year after the latest inflation report, that could be assessed as a hawkish tilt in the ECB’s policy outlook and provide a boost to the euro. Currently, eurozone money markets are pricing in 30 basis points of rate hikes by the end of the year. Dovish scenario: Lagarde might opt to communicate that inflation is close to peaking in the eurozone and outright reject a rate hike in 2022 while pushing back against market rate-hike bets. Lagarde might also mention that they don’t need to normalize the policy as fast as the Fed by highlighting the differences in economic conditions in the US and the EU. Neutral scenario: Given the fact that the ECB will not release its revised economic projections until March, it would be surprising to see an obvious shift in the ECB’s tone. The accounts of the ECB’s December meeting revealed that policymakers are divided over the inflation outlook and February's policy statement is unlikely to touch on that. The ECB should reiterate that it stands ready to act if inflation becomes persistent in the euro area and that it remains committed to ensuring price stability. EUR/USD Technical Analysis Unless the ECB delivers a hawkish surprise, the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB should continue to favour the dollar over the euro and limit EUR/USD’s upside. At the time of press, the pair was trading near 1.1300, where the 20-day and the 50-day SMAs are located. In case EUR/USD starts using these levels as support, it could target the next static resistance at 1.1375 ahead of 1.1430 (100-day SMA). Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays near 50, suggesting that the pair needs to push higher to convince investors that the latest advance is the beginning of an uptrend rather than a correction. On the flip side, a dovish ECB statement could attract bears and cause the pair to slide toward 1.1200 (psychological level, static level). If this support fails, EUR/USD (https://www.fxstreet.com/currencies/eurusd) could touch a fresh 19-month low at 1.1100.

XAUUSD attempts to bounce The bullions bounce higher as the US dollar softens across the board. Gold is looking to claw back losses from the liquidation in late January. A close above the psychological level of 1800 would be the first step, pushing short-term sellers into covering their bets. The previous support at 1817 coincides with the 30-day moving average, making it an area of interest and important resistance. A bullish breakout may send the metal to the previous high at 1847. On the downside, 1780 is a fresh support. SPX 500 tests resistance The S&P 500 rallies over better-than-expected corporate earnings. A break above 4490 has eased the selling pressure on the index. The former daily support at 4600 is now a key resistance that lies over the 30-day moving average. A close above this congestion area could turn sentiment around, paving the way for a recovery towards 4750. The RSI’s overbought situation may keep the momentum in check temporarily. A pullback may see buying interest in the demand zone between 4410 and 4490. USOIL consolidates gains WTI crude continues to climb as OPEC+ refuses to raise its output limit. The RSI inched into the overbought territory on the daily chart after a new high above 85.00. The bulls could be wary of chasing after the extended rally. 85.00 has turned into a support and a pullback could be an opportunity to accumulate again. Further down, 82.00 on the 30-day moving average is a major floor for the current rally. The milestone at 90.00 would be the next target when momentum makes its return.

S&P 500 is slowly getting under pressure, which is likely to culminate on weak non-farm payrolls tomorrow if Wednesday was any guide. Credit markets are pushing for higher yields as inflation data keep surprising those policy makers who had been already surprised throughout 2021. Commodities though aren‘t freezing as a proverbial deer in the headlights, and once the scare of the Fed‘s short tightening cycle gets done away with, precious metals would join. In the meantime, look for silver to act on copper‘s cue, and for gold to do relatively better in risk-off settings.As for stocks, my gentle selling bias while on the lookout to enter short towards the session‘s end, hasn‘t changed since yesterday, and the new position is already profitable:(…) the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery.The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls prevailed yesterday, but would get under pressure relatively soon. The ominous lower knots say a consolidation is knocking on the door.Credit MarketsHYG repelled selling pressure, but that won‘t last – I‘m looking for lower values across the bond spectrum, coinciding with (temporary) dollar upswing. Risk-off.Gold, Silver and MinersAll this risk-off already in and still to come, is failing to press gold and silver really down – and that tells you the true direction is up, just waiting for a (Fed, inflation, stagflation) catalyst.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t yet wavering, but remain perched pretty high – I‘m looking for sideways to down consolidation as the bears get emboldened by the rising volume. Trying their luck soon.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, still positioned for an upside breakout. Commodities are pointing in the right direction – note the absence of sellers yesterday. How far would the USD upswing compress the red metal today? Not much, not lastingly.Bitcoin and EthereumThe narrow crypto trading range is over, and the bears are on the move – look for them to take some time before they get going towards BTC $35K.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are about to meet the bears again, and higher yields won‘t save value stocks, let alone spawn a rush to tech safety. The pressure in stocks to probe lower values, is building up, and 4,450 may not be enough to stop it. For all the pause in Fed hawkish jawboning, the tightening cycle is merely getting started, and stocks will feel it. Unlike precious metals, which would reverse prior hesitation once the rate raising starts in earnest, and start going up. And commodities? These aren‘t waiting for anyone‘s greenlight. And neither should you in life – what I would like to bring to your attention, is that volatility is rising, and it thus makes sense to pare back the overall portfolio exposure and position sizing while taking only the strongest of opportunities.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

However, these gains attracted some profit-taking at prices around US$1,850. And in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting, gold sold off for three days in a row. This merciless sell-off only ended at US$1,780 wiping out nearly all gains since mid of December. It was some form of the classic “the bull walks up the stairs and the bear jumps out the window” pattern, which is a typical behavior within an uptrend.Hence and exactly for this reason, the deep pullback did not necessarily end the recovery in the gold market. Of course, in the bigger picture, the entire precious metals sector is still stuck in this tenacious correction which has been ongoing since August 2020. In the short-term, however, the pullback has created an oversold setup and once again proved that there is buying interest at prices below US$1,800.US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022. False breakout?US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.It also seems that the US-Dollar might have hit an important top last Thursday and is now moving lower, which would be very supportive for gold, of course. Everyone is expecting the US-Dollar to go up as the FED is expected to raise interest rates. But the US-Dollar has been discounting this “hike and taper scenario” for several months already. Actually, the US-Dollar index has been rallying +8.8% since May 2021! During the recent FOMC meeting, however, big money might have used the seeming breakout to sell their dollar longs into a favorable high-volume setup. At the same time, stock market sentiment was extremely bearish. Hence, last week likely triggered a top in the US-Dollar and a violent back and forth bottoming pattern for the stock-market.US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022. A series of lower highs!US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022.In the big picture, a top in the US-Dollar would continue the series of lower highs for the dollar. As well, the US-Dollar is moving within a huge triangle since 2001. After a series of three lower highs since December 2016, a test of the lower boundary of the triangle would give gold prices an extreme tailwind in the coming years. Hence, even if it´s hard to come up with any bearish arguments for the dollar at the moment, technically it looks like the dollar could roll over.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart from February 3rd, 2020. Gold’s behavior is changing.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.For gold, a weaker US-Dollar would be very helpful. In fact, since the beginning of this week, we perceive an ongoing change in gold’s behavior. We are getting impressed by its intraday strength! Every small pullback around and below US$1,800 was rather quickly bought again. So far, gold has only recovered 38.2% of last week’s nasty sell-off and currently sits pretty much exactly at its 200-day moving average (US$1,805).But the fresh buy signal from the slow stochastic oscillator on the daily chart promises more upside. Hence, we see gold fuming its way higher in the coming weeks. In the next step, gold will have to overcome the 38.2% resistance around US$1,808.50 and then continue its recovery towards US$1,830. In any case, the seasonal component is at least very favorable until the end of February. Therefore, even higher price targets are conceivable too. But gold needs to breakout above the triangle and clear US$1,850. Only then a more sustainable bullish momentum would emerge which could last further into spring.If, on the other hand, gold takes out US$1,780, the recovery since mid of December might be over already and the medium-term correction might likely pick up again.Conclusion: Seasonality favors another wave upOverall, we assume that seasonality favors another wave up in the gold market. Thus, another rally towards at least US$1,830 is realistic. We are short-term bullish, mid-term neutral to skeptic and long-term very bullish for gold.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 3rd, 2022|Tags: EUR/USD, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold neutral, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

AMC stock slumped yesterday as debt raise news was digested. AMC now nearly doubles the raise from $500 million to $950 million. AMC is down over 40% in the last month and 43% for 2022. AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) stock is back on the news wires the last few days, but unfortunately for holders it has not been well received. AMC stock put in three consecutive green days before slumping over 8% on Wednesday. Risk aversion returned, but AMC also announced it was raising more debt to refinance its existing debt. The stock closed at $15.42 for an 8.5% loss on the day. AMC Stock News This morning AMC has nearly doubled its debt offering from $500 million to $950 million. There is also see a bit more detail on the offering. It is to carry a 7.5% interest rate and expires in 2029. The funds will be used to retire existing debt at 10.5% expiring in 2025. The extra $450 million sees AMC also redeeming some notes at 15-17% due in 2026. So AMC is basically remortgaging at a lower rate. This will reduce its interest payments. AMC needs to do this, however, as it carries too much debt. The company has $5.4 billion in long-term debt. AMC has about $1.6 billion in cash, but it spends nearly $100 million per quarter on debt repayments. So remortgaging makes sense, but it is not exactly comforting. CEO Adam Aron has been looking for ways to improve the financial position of the company, and investors baulked at more share issuances. This was the obvious next step but comes a bit later than optimal. Junk bond yields had reached a record low during the summer. The rate of 7.5% is more or less in line with the sector. CCC high yield corporate bonds are currently yielding on average 8.3%. This is up from 6% during the summer. Moody's reacted positively and changed its outlook to positive. AMC Stock Forecast For now, AMC shares are holding the support at $14.54, but risk aversion is growing after FB earnings last night and a suprisngly hawkish Bank of England this morning. Equity markets will suffer with high risk names getting hit the most. Expect $14.54 to break with the next support at $12.22. A break here and the lure of $10 will be obvious. Only beaking $21.04 ends this curent bearish trend. AMC daily chart

MATIC price is hovering above the weekly support level at $1.44, hinting at a move higher. Investors can expect Polygon to rally at least 15% before encountering a tough hurdle. A breakdown of the $1.41 support level will invalidate the bullish thesis. MATIC price recovery after the January flash crash was good but is slowing down. The ongoing consolidation will likely result in an uptrend (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/matic-price-consolidates-before-jumping-to-190-202202022123) that propels Polygon to revisit crucial levels. MATIC price sets the stage MATIC price has been teetering above the $1.44 support level and will likely retest it soon. A bounce off this barrier could be the key to triggering an uptrend. In some cases, the rally could even begin before the initial pullback. Regardless, investors can expect a minimum 15% ascent from MATIC price that tags the supply zone’s lower limit at $1.75. In a highly bullish scenario, Polygon could pierce this hurdle and make a run for the weekly resistance barrier at $1.95. This move would bring total gains from 15% to 27%, from the current level at $1.53. Investors willing to go long could enter a pilot position at the current level and wait for a retest of the $1.44 barrier. If the latter does not arrive, market participants can book profits following a retest of $1.75 and $1.95. MATIC/USDT 4-hour chart While things seem straightforward for MATIC price, a breakdown of the $1.44 support level could dent their optimism. A four-hour candlestick close below $1.41, however, will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis, making an ideal place to enter a stop-loss. A bearish turn could see MATIC price crashing 13% before retesting the $1.23 weekly support level.

EURUSD breaks higher The euro soared as traders bet that persistent inflation could force the ECB to act sooner than later. A break below the daily support at 1.1300 had put the single currency under pressure. However, a swift rebound above this support-turned-resistance indicates strong commitment from the buy-side. The pair is rising towards the January peak at 1.1480. The RSI’s triple top in the overbought area may slow the momentum down as intraday buyers take a break. 1.1270 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. GBPUSD tests resistance The pound popped higher after the BOE raised interest rates to 0.5%. The latest rebound above the resistance at 1.3520 has prompted sellers to cover. Then the rally is accelerating towards 1.3660 which is a major hurdle from the sell-off in late January. A bullish breakout could turn sentiment in the sterling’s favor and send the price to the previous peak at 1.3740. On the downside, 1.3500 is an important support and its breach could invalidate the recovery despite the bullish catalyst. CADJPY awaits breakout The Canadian dollar recovers over growing risk appetite. A fall below the demand zone around 90.60 weighed on sentiment as the loonie struggled to make a higher high. The pair found support at 89.70 in what used to be a former supply area on the daily chart. The current consolidation is a sign of indecision. 91.10 proves to be a tough resistance to crack. A bullish breakout could bring the price to the recent peak at 92.00. Failing that, the pair may suffer from another round of sell-off below 89.10.

  Gold didn’t shine in January. The struggle could continue, although the more distant future looks more optimistic for the yellow metal. That was quick! January has already ended. Welcome to February! I hope that this year has started well for you. For gold, the first month of 2022 wasn’t particularly good. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal lost about $11 of its value, or less than 1%, during January. This is the bad side of the story. The ugly side is that gold wasn’t able to maintain its position above $1,800, even though geopolitical risks intensified, while inflation soared to the highest level in 40 years! The yellow metal surpassed the key level in early January and stayed above this level for most of the time, even rallying above $1,840 in the second half of the month. But gold couldn’t hold out and plunged at the end of January, triggered by a hawkish FOMC meeting. However, there is also a good side. Gold is still hovering around $1,800 despite the upcoming Fed’s tightening cycle and all the hawkish expectations about the US monetary policy in 2022. The Fed signaled the end of tapering of quantitative easing by March, the first hike in the federal funds rate in the same month, and the start of quantitative tightening later this year. Meanwhile, in the last few weeks, the markets went from predicting two interest rate hikes to five. Even more intriguing, and perhaps encouraging as well, is that the real interest rates have increased last month, rising from -1% to -0.6%. Gold is usually negatively correlated with the TIPS yields, but this time it stayed afloat amid rising rates.   Implications for Gold What does gold’s behavior in January imply for its 2022 outlook? Well, I must admit that I expected gold’s performance to be worse. Last month showed that gold simply don’t want to either go down (or up), but it still prefers to go sideways, glued to the $1,800 level. The fact that strengthening expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle and rising real interest rates didn’t plunge gold prices makes me somewhat more optimistic about gold’s future. However, I still see some important threats to gold. First of all, some investors are still underpricing how hawkish the Fed could become to combat inflation. Hence, the day of reckoning could still be ahead of us. You see, just today, the Bank of England hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points, although almost half of the policymakers wanted to raise interest rates by half a percentage point. Second, the market seems to be biased downward, with lower and lower peaks since August 2020. Having said that, investors should remember that what the Fed says it will do and what it ends up doing are often very different. When the Fed says it will be dovish, it will be dovish. But when the Fed says it will be hawkish, it says so. This is because a monetary tightening could be painful for asset valuations and all the debtors, including Uncle Sam. The US stock market already saw significant losses in January. As the chart below shows, the S&P 500 Index lost a few hundred points last month, marking the worst decline since the beginning of the pandemic. Thus, the Fed won’t risk recession in its fight with inflation, especially if it peaks this year, and would try to engineer a soft-landing. Hence, the Fed could reverse its stance relatively soon, especially that it’s terribly late with its tightening. However, as long as the focus is on monetary policy tightening, gold is likely to struggle within its tight range. Some policymakers and economists have argued that the emergence from the COVID-19 pandemic is more like a postwar demobilization and conversion to a civilian industry than a normal business cycle. White House economists have compared the current picture to the rapid increases in 1947, caused by the end of price controls in conjunction with supply chain problems and pent-up demand after the war (“Historical Parallels to Today’s Inflationary Episode”, Council of Economic Advisers, July 6, 2021). The problem with this analogy is that it is only one instance from more than 70 years ago. More recent and more frequent inflation episodes have generally been ended by a recession or a mid-cycle slowdown. Price pressures have an internal momentum of their own and tend to intensify rather than lessen as the business cycle becomes more mature and the margin of spare capacity shrinks in all markets. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Down the chain, US stock market dynamics now determine corporate investor sentiment towards Bitcoin and Ether. From the top-down, this sentiment then spreads down to altcoins. But since late last year, there has been a continuing trend that even bitcoin's calming is enough for altcoins to return to growth and outperform the first cryptocurrency. In the last 24 hours, the entire crypto market has added 3.3%, while Ether has gained 4.7% versus Bitcoin's 2.4%. Ether has strengthened by 15% in the last seven days, returning to this month's highs and trying to climb above the bottom levels at the end of September 2021. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation excluding Bitcoin has been hovering around the $1 trillion mark for over a week and approached the upper end of that range on Friday morning. The reduction in volatility in Bitcoin allows for an optimistic outlook on altcoins. At least in the short term. An essential boundary for Ether will be the $3K mark. A return in the price above this level could further encourage buyers and reject the idea of a crypto-winter following the example of 2018. Solana is showing signs of coming out of the hole it fell into at the end of January. The $90 mark has attracted sufficient buyer demand. However, it will be premature to discuss a sustained recovery to the upside, only a stabilisation after the collapse. A BTCUSD consolidation above $40k and Ethereum above $3k would shift the altcoin recovery to a new speed and restart the process of BTC share contraction in the entire market.

  Beware, the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy could lift real interest rates! For gold, this poses a risk of prices wildly rolling down. The first FOMC meeting in 2022 is behind us. What can we expect from the US central bank this year and how will it affect the price of gold? Well, this year’s episode of Fed Street will be sponsored by the letter “T”, which stands for “tightening”. It will consist of three elements. First, quantitative easing tapering. The asset purchases are going to end by early March. To be clear, during tapering, the Fed is still buying securities, so it remains accommodative, but less and less. Tapering has been very gradual and well-telegraphed to the markets, so it’s probably already priced in gold. Thus, the infamous taper tantrum shouldn’t replay. Second, quantitative tightening. Soon after the end of asset purchases, the Fed will begin shrinking its mammoth balance sheet. As the chart below shows, it has more than doubled since the start of the pandemic, reaching about $9 trillion, or about 36% of the country’s GDP. It’s so gigantic that even Powell admitted during his January press conference that “the balance sheet is substantially larger than it needs to be.” Captain Obvious attacked again! In contrast to tapering, which just reduces additions to the Fed’s holdings, quantitative tightening will shrink the balance sheet. How much? It’s hard to say. Last time, during QT from 2017 to 2019, the Fed started unloading $10 billion in assets per month, gradually lifting the cap to $50 billion. Given that inflation is now much higher, and the Fed has greater confidence in the economic recovery, the scale of reduction would probably be higher. The QT will create upward pressure on interest rates, which could be negative for the gold market. However, QT will be a very gradual and orderly process. Instead of selling assets directly, the US central bank will stop reinvestment of proceeds as securities run off. As we can read in “Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet”, The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account. What’s more, the previous case of QT wasn’t detrimental to gold, as the chart below shows. The price of gold started to rally in late 2018 and especially later in mid-2019. Third, the hiking cycle. In March, the Fed is going to start increasing the federal funds rate. According to the financial markets, the US central bank will enact five interest rate hikes this year, raising the federal funds rate to the range of 1.25-1.50%. Now, there are two narratives about American monetary policy in 2022. According to the first, we are witnessing a hawkish revolution within the Fed, as it would shift its monetary stance in a relatively short time. The central bank will “double tighten” (i.e., it will shrink its balance sheet at the same time as hiking rates), and it will do it in a much more aggressive way than after the Great Recession. Such decisive moves will significantly raise the bond yields, which will hit gold prices. However, in this scenario, the Fed’s aggressive actions will eventually lead to the inversion of the yield curve and later to recession, which should support the precious metals market. On the other hand, some analysts point out that central bankers are all talk and – given their dovish bias – act less aggressively than they promise, chickening out in the face of the first stock market turbulence. They also claim that all the Fed’s actions won’t be enough to combat inflation and that monetary conditions will remain relatively loose. For example, Stephen Roach argues that “the Fed is so far behind [the curve] that it can’t even see the curve.” Indeed, the real federal funds rate is deeply negative (around -7%), as the chart below shows; and even if inflation moderates to 3.5% while the Fed conducts four hikes, it will remain well below zero (about -2%), providing some support for gold prices. Which narrative is correct? Well, there are grains of truth in both of them. However, I would like to remind you that what really matters for the markets is the change or direction, not the level of a variable. Hence, the fact that real interest rates are to stay extremely low doesn’t guarantee that gold prices won’t decline in a response to the hiking cycle. Actually, as the chart above shows, the upward reversal in the real interest rates usually plunges gold prices. Given that real rates are at a record low, a normalization is still ahead of us. Hence, unless inflation continues to rise, bond yields are likely to move up, while gold – to move down. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

S&P 500 is grinding lower, and bonds concur. Risk-off posture and rising yields aren‘t tech‘s friend really, and the VIX is back to moving up. The odd thing is that the dollar wasn‘t well bid yesterday as could have been expected on rising rates – the sentiment called for a bad non-farm payrolls number today. Understandably so given Wednesday‘s preview, and the figure would just highlight how desperately behind the inflation curve the Fed is, what kind of economy it would be tightening into, and shine more light on its manouevering room for Mar FOMC.Fun times ahead for the bears, and the S&P 500 short profits can go on growing – the ride isn‘t over: If tech – in spite of the great earnings Amazon move – gets clobbered this way again on the rising yields, then we could very well see even energy stocks feel the initial selling wave. Not that value stocks would be unaffected, to put it more than mildly – just check yesterday‘s poor showing of financials. Something is going to give, and soon.Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are getting slaughtered, and the downhill path is likely to continue, thanks to tech. Brace for a volatile day today.Credit MarketsHYG selling pressure made a strong return, predictably. Credit markets are leading stocks to the downside, certainly.Gold, Silver and MinersAs written yesterday, all this risk-off already in and still to come, is failing to press gold and silver really down – and that tells you the true direction is up. The downswings are being bought.Crude OilCrude oil bulls in the end didn‘t waver, and are pushing higher already – the upside breakout can really stick.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, still positioned for an upside breakout. It would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto bears didn‘t get far, and it looks like we‘re back to some chop ahead. SummaryS&P 500 bulls are getting rightfully challenged again – the Fed hikes are approaching. See though how little are commodities and precious metals affected. Meanwhile the S&P 500 internals keep deteriorating. Today‘s analytical introduction is special in talking the non-farm payrolls and Fed tightening dynamic, and explains why the pressure in stocks to probe lower values, is still building up, and that 4,450 may not be enough to stop it. For all the pause in Fed hawkish jawboning, the tightening cycle is merely getting started, and today‘s surprisingly strong data gives the Fed as much justification as the quickening wage inflation. I hope you enjoyed today‘s extensive analysis and yesterday‘s risk exposure observations. Have a great day ahead!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

While everyone is criticizing Russia, it’s easy to follow the US ‘savior’ narrative. However, what if we looked at what’s happening with oil in mind?Disclaimer to today’s article: I’m providing this analysis from a pure energy-focused perspective. I do not claim it represents THE right view, but rather one of those that won’t be as visible in the mainstream. It is interesting to add different views as pieces of the same puzzle. I am looking forward to reading yours in the comments!Picture Source: MemedroidSeveral port facilities in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have been the target of cyberattacks, prompting the judicial authorities to investigate the suspicions of extortion of funds at the expense of German operators in the oil sector. Indeed, it would appear that this series of computer hackings that began several days ago primarily concerns oil terminals. This is disrupting deliveries in several major European ports against a backdrop of soaring energy prices.After jumping the day before, thanks to the strengthening of the euro against the US dollar induced by ECB President Lagarde, oil prices continued to rise during the European session on Friday. Consequently, the fall in the greenback came on top of the recovery in demand, the fall in US crude inventories and the disruptions in supply to boost the price of black gold on the climb, the two crude benchmarks evolving above the psychological mark of 90 dollars a barrel, galvanized by solid demand and tensions on the offer coming from (geo-)political risks.Who is Provoking Who?The situation is rather complex on the geopolitical scene, with the US claiming that Russia is planning an invasion in Ukraine, whereas the US under NATO cover sent additional troops to Eastern Europe. The question that may arise here is: who is provoking who? So far, we haven’t seen Russia placing troops in Mexico, on the border with the United States. On the other hand, the Biden administration may encounter difficulties in accepting that the Kremlin can agree to various partnerships with its European neighbors, especially regarding more favorable energy supplies. Instead, it’s in the US interest to weaken those diplomatic relations, potentially leading to additional partnerships that may arise between the EU and Putin.And as we see the US-led narrative getting through the Western mainstream media with more aggressive, suspicious, and tense tones towards Russia, this obviously has the effect of pouring some oil on the Russian-Ukrainian fire. Furthermore, the US needs reasons to demonstrate that NATO is still alive and relevant while a number of countries are now questioning their own participation in the US-led military organisation created in 1949, even going so far as to show some doubts regarding its current motivations.Isolating the Russian BearBy maintaining a hostile tone towards Russia’s intentions, the US is consequently trying to isolate the Russian bear and push their European partners to blindly follow the “official narrative” (as the EU being part of NATO), which could possibly lead to new sanctions on Russia, the latter being able to retaliate by using its energy assets and capacities to deprive the EU of the Russian supplies, which currently on the gas side represent between 30% and 40% of total gas imports for Europe. Then, as a result, the Americans could start exporting more gas into Europe via Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipping – which again could benefit their energy-led commercial balance – the Europeans thus becoming the losing players in this game.As an example, we saw this week that a tanker loaded with LNG from the US will arrive at the LNG terminal in Świnoujście (Poland) at the end of this month, since Poland has LNG import capabilities which could be used to deliver US gas to Ukraine. Apparently, this is the second time (after the first one took place two years ago) that such gas deliveries are made by PGNiG, the Polish state-controlled oil and gas company, in cooperation with ERU (their strategic trading partner on the Ukrainian market).Actually, Ukraine suspended imports of Russian gas at the end of 2015. After relying on Russian gas imports for decades, they currently increasingly depend on imports from Europe. Since Ukraine has no LNG import capabilities, such US gas deliveries have been organized via a pipeline from the Polish terminal (through re-gasified LNG).WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart)Brent Crude Oil (BRJH22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart)Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart)In summary, geopolitics is always complex because it relies on individual economic and strategic interests of countries. The readings also depend on different views, and since there is always a lot of noise, it often helps to take some steps back in order to analyze the global situation from a different angle.Have a nice weekend! And remember to chime in on the conversation.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDCHF bounces higherThe US dollar rallied after January’s nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations. The latest pullback found support near the previous low at 0.9180.A bullish RSI divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the sell-off. A close above 0.9275 would force short-term sellers to cover and pave the way for a broader rebound.Then the double top (0.9360) on the daily chart would be the next target. On the downside, a bearish breakout may send the pair to 0.9110.USDCAD awaits breakoutThe loonie weakened after a rise in Canada’s unemployment rate in January. The greenback has previously come to a halt at the daily resistance (1.2800).The retracement then found bids at the resistance-turned-support at 1.2650, suggesting traders’ strong interest in keeping the two-week-long rally intact. The RSI has inched into the overbought territory and may drive the price lower with short-term profit-taking.A bullish breakout may extend the uptrend to December’s peak at 1.2950.GER 40 lacks supportThe Dax 40 drifts lower after the ECB’s hawkish turn. The recent rebound met stiff selling pressure at 15740. Then a fall below 15350 indicates a lack of commitment from the buy-side.A bearish MA cross suggests an acceleration to the downside and may attract more bears. The demand area around 14850 is a critical floor on the daily chart. Its breach could trigger a bearish reversal in the medium term.An oversold RSI may cause a limited bounce. The bulls need to reclaim 15500 in order to turn sentiment around.

Friday's US labour market report raised the chances of a sharper Fed rate hike, placing USD on a solid footing.Employment growth of 467K in January was well above forecasts. In addition, there was a noticeable upward revision to the job gains of the previous couple of months. Furthermore, wage growth accelerated to 5.7% y/y, marking the unwinding of the inflationary spiral.The markets are applying a 33% chance of a 50-point key rate hike by the Fed in March, leaving a 67% chance of a standard move of 25 points. This is a dramatic reassessment of the outlook, as just a month ago, rate futures were leaving a 24% chance that there would be no rate hike in March.Hawkish comments from Europe and England has added fuel to the fire. Last week, the Bank of England minutes 4 out of 9 MPC members voted for a 50 point rate hike. The ECB is warming to a rate hike this year and potentially twice, although they rejected the idea back in December.In our view, Friday's labour market report showed that the US still has a head start on the pace of economic recovery, which will allow for more monetary policy tightening.This is potentially positive news for the dollar, which found ground late last week after correcting by 2.3% from its peak in late January. If the Fed strengthens its signals of willingness to hike the rate by 50 points in mid-March in the coming weeks, it will be grounds for stronger dollar buying.History suggests that the momentum of the appreciation of the US currency against major competitors is exhausted a few months after a rate hike. Usually, it becomes clear that other central banks have already moved on to the pace of Fed rate hikes and are often even prepared to act more decisively.But we are not yet in this phase, and the Fed's policy, as well as the US economic indicators, provide the dollar with a head start for the foreseeable future. As early as February, the dollar index could rewrite the January highs near 97.5 against the current 95.56 and take the DXY into the 100-103 area by mid-year.

S&P 500 refused to break below 4,450s, and junk bonds took off the lows as well. The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations.Treasuries are telling the story as well – the 10-year yield has been surging lately while the 30-year bond didn‘t move nearly as much. It means a lot of focus on Fed tightening, which is making the recent Amazon and Meta earnings ability to move stocks this much, all the better for the S&P 500 in the short run. The 10-year yield is likely to retrace a part of its prior increase, and that would give stocks some breathing room. At the same time though, I don‘t think that the tech selling is done, that tech is out of the woods now – the current rally is likely to run out of steam over the next 5-10 days, then go sideways to down.As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. Before that, we‘re in a quite wide range where current stock market values aren‘t truly reflecting bond market sluggishness.Keeping in mind the key Friday‘s conclusion:(…) Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future.Credit MarketsHYG paused, and the heavy selling is catching a bid – reprieve is approaching even if Friday‘s highs didn‘t last.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t getting anywhere, and are likely to warmly embrace the upcoming pause in higher yields. But that‘s not yet the true fireworks we would get later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t even remotely pausing – I wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really. There is still much strength in black gold regardless of the Iran sanctions waiver – triple digit oil I called for months ago, is getting near.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, and the downside looks fairly well defended. The upside breakout would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are still sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto break higher attests to the return of strength underway, and it‘s supported by the volume. The buyers have the short-term upper hand.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood the prospect of hawkish Fed getting more job market leeway on Friday, and look to be entering the week with a slight advantage. Also the bond markets look nearning the moment of calming down as the longer durations are painting a different picture than the 10-year Treasury. S&P 500 would like that, but the tech rebound would get tested as we likely move lower to welcome Mar. Till then, stocks are likely to drift somewhat higher before the rally runs out of steam over the next 5-10 days. Full game plan with reasoning is introduced in the opening part of today‘s extensive analysis. Cryptos good performance on Friday is as promising as the commodities surge – enjoy the days ahead.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin price looks overextended as it grapples with the 50-day SMA and the weekly resistance barrier at $42,816. Ethereum price pierces through the bearish breaker and approaches the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Ripple price approaches the $0.757 to $0.807 supply zone that could cut the uptrend short. Bitcoin price has seen tremendous gains over the past three days as it attempts to overcome a massive hurdle. While altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple have corresponded to this bullishness, investors need to exercise caution with fresh investments as a retracement could be around the corner. Bitcoin price faces a decisive moment Bitcoin price has risen 18% over the past four days and is currently hovering below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the weekly resistance barrier confluence at $42,816. If this uptrend is a bull trap, BTC is likely to see rejection followed by a retracement to the immediate support level at $8,481. A breakdown of the said barrier will knock the big crypto down to $34,752. In an extremely bearish case, Bitcoin price could revisit the $30,000 psychological barrier and collect the liquidity resting below it. BTC/USD 1-day chart If BTC produces a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387, however, it will invalidate the bearish thesis. While this development will alleviate the sell-side pressure, it does not mean that Bitcoin price has flipped bullish. A daily candlestick close above $52,000 will produce a higher high and suggest the possible start of an uptrend. Ethereum price slithers close to bearish thesis invalidation Ethereum price has followed the big crypto and pierced the bearish breaker, ranging from $2,789 to $3,167. Any further bullish momentum will push ETH to climb higher and retest the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Assuming BTC retraces, investors can expect Ethereum price to face rejection at $3,242, leading to a 25% pullback to the weekly support level at $2,324. In a highly bearish case, Ethereum price could revisit the $1,730 weekly support level and collect the sell-side liquidity resting below it. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the bearish outlook, the Ethereum price can invalidate the short-term bearish outlook if it produces a daily candlestick close above the $3,167 resistance zone. A bullish scenario could be kick-started, however, if buyers push ETH to produce a swing high at $3,413. Ethereum price gains momentum to breakout to $3,300 Ripple price faces a blockade Ripple price broke out of its consolidation and rallied 25% from $0.604 to $0.754. This impressive move is currently retesting the weekly resistance barrier at $0.740, which rests below another hurdle that extends from $0.757 to $0.807. Rejection at this multi-resistance zone seems likely considering the situation in which Bitcoin is in, and investors can expect the Ripple price to retrace 16%, returning to the consolidation zone at $0.628. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close above the supply zone’s upper limit at $0.807 will signal a resurgence of buyers and indicate their willingness to move higher. In this case, Ripple price could set up a higher high by rallying 12% to $0.911.    

  Gold’s latest feats increased investors’ appetite. The outlook for the dollar, however, remains healthy. That can only mean one thing. As volatility erupts across the financial markets, gold and silver prices are being pulled in conflicting directions. For example, with the USD Index suffering a short-term decline, the outcome is fundamentally bullish for the precious metals. However, with U.S. Treasury yields rallying, the outcome is fundamentally bearish for gold and silver prices. Then, with panic selling and panic buying confronting the general stock market, the PMs are dealing with those crosscurrents. However, with QE on its deathbed and the Fed poised to raise the Federal Funds Rate in the coming months, the common denominator is rising real interest rates. To explain, the euro’s recent popularity has impacted the USD Index. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the dollar basket’s movement. Thus, if real interest rates rise and the U.S. dollar falls, what will happen to the PMs? Well, the reality is that rising real interest rates are bullish for the USD Index, and the euro’s recent ECB-induced rally is far from a surprise. With investors often buying the EUR/USD in anticipation of a hawkish shift from the ECB, another ‘hopeful’ upswing occurred. However, the central bank disappointed investors time and time again in 2021, and the currency pair continued to make new lows. As a result, we expect the downtrend to resume over the medium term.  Supporting our expectations, I wrote the following about financial conditions and the USD Index on Feb. 2: To explain, the blue line above tracks Goldman Sachs' Financial Conditions Index (FCI). For context, the index is calculated as a "weighted average of riskless interest rates, the exchange rate, equity valuations, and credit spreads, with weights that correspond to the direct impact of each variable on GDP." In a nutshell: when interest rates increase alongside credit spreads, it's more expensive to borrow money and financial conditions tighten. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the FCI has surpassed its pre-COVID-19 high (January 2020). Moreover, the FCI bottomed in January 2021 and has been seeking higher ground ever since. In the process, it's no coincidence that the PMs have suffered mightily since January 2021. To that point, with the Fed poised to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, the FCI should continue its ascent. As a result, the PMs' relief rallies should fall flat like in 2021.  Likewise, while the USD Index has come down from its recent high, it's no coincidence that the dollar basket bottomed with the FCI in January 2021 and hit a new high with the FCI in January 2022. Thus, while the recent consolidation may seem troubling, the medium-term fundamentals supporting the greenback remain robust. Furthermore, tighter financial conditions are often a function of rising real interest rates. As mentioned, the USD Index bottomed with the FCI and surged to new highs with the FCI. As a result, the fundamentals support a stronger, not weaker USD Index. As evidence, the U.S. 10-Year real yield, the FCI, and the USD Index have traveled similar paths since January 2020. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the USD Index since January 2020, while the red line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year real yield. While the latter didn’t bottom in January 2021 like the USD Index and the FCI (though it was close), all three surged in late 2021 and hit new highs in 2022. Moreover, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury nominal and real yields hit new 2022 highs on Feb. 4.  In addition, if you compare the two charts, you can see that all three metrics spiked higher when the coronavirus crisis struck in March 2020. As such, the trio often follows in each other’s footsteps. Furthermore, with the Fed likely to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, this realization supports a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield, and a higher FCI. As a result, the fundamentals underpinning the USD Index remain robust, and short-term sentiment is likely to be responsible for the recent weakness.  Likewise, as the Omicron variant slows U.S. economic activity, the ‘bad news is good news’ camp has renewed hopes for a dovish Fed. However, the latest strain is unlikely to affect the Fed’s reaction function. A case in point: after ADP’s private payrolls declined by 301,000 in January (data released on Feb. 2), concern spread across Wall Street. However, after U.S. nonfarm payrolls (government data) came in at 467,000 versus 150,000 expected on Feb. 4, the U.S. labor market remains extremely healthy.  Please see below: Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) On top of that, the BLS revealed that “the over-the-month employment change for November and December 2021 combined is 709,000 higher than previously reported, while the over-the-month employment change for June and July 2021 combined is 807,000 lower. Overall, the 2021 over-the-year change is 217,000 higher than previously reported.”  Thus, the U.S. added more than 700,000 combined jobs in November and December than previously reported, and the net gain in 2021 was more than 200,000. Please see below: Source: BLS As for wage inflation, the BLS also revealed: “In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 23 cents to $31.63. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.7 percent.” As a reminder, while investors speculate on the prospect of a hawkish ECB, the latest release out of Europe shows that wage inflation is much weaker than in the U.S. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 1: Eurozone hourly labor costs rose by 2.5% YoY on Dec. 16 (the latest release). Moreover, the report revealed that “the costs of wages & salaries per hour worked increased by 2.3%, while the non-wage component rose by 3.0% in the third quarter of 2021, compared with the same quarter of the previous year.”  As a result, non-wage labor costs – like insurance, healthcare, unemployment premiums, etc. – did the bulk of the heavy lifting. In contrast, wage and salary inflation are nowhere near the ECB’s danger zone. Please see below: And why is wage inflation so critical? Well, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Jan. 25: Source: ECB As a result, when the ECB’s Chief Economist tells you that wage inflation needs to hit 3% YoY to be “consistent” with the ECB’s 2% overall annual inflation target, a wage print of 2.3% YoY is far from troublesome. Thus, while euro bulls hope that the ECB will mirror the Fed and perform a hawkish 180, the data suggests otherwise.  In addition, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls materially outperformed on Feb. 4, I noted on Feb. 2 that there are now 4.606 million more job openings in the U.S. than citizens unemployed. Please see below: To explain, the green line above subtracts the number of unemployed U.S. citizens from the number of U.S. job openings. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the epic collapse has completely reversed and the green line is now at an all-time high. Thus, with more jobs available than people looking for work, the economic environment supports normalization by the Fed. Thus, if we piece the puzzle together, the U.S. labor market remains healthy and U.S. inflation is materially outperforming the Eurozone. As a result, the Fed should stay ahead of the ECB, and the hawkish outperformance supports a weaker EUR/USD and a stronger USD Index. Moreover, the dynamic also supports a higher FCI and a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield. As we’ve seen since January 2021, these fundamental outcomes are extremely unkind to the PMs. Finally, while the Omicron variant has depressed economic sentiment, I noted previously that the disruptions should be short-lived. For example, with Americans’ anxiety about COVID-19 decelerating, renewed economic strength should keep the pressure on the Fed. Please see below: To explain, the light brown line above tracks the net percentage of Americans concerned about COVID-19, while the dark brown line above tracks the change in flight search trends on Kayak. In a nutshell: the more concern over COVID-19 (a high light brown line), the more Americans hunker down and avoid travel (a low dark brown line). However, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light brown line has rolled over and the dark brown line has materially risen. Moreover, with the trend poised to persist as the warmer weather arrives, increased mobility should uplift sentiment, support economic growth, and keep the Fed’s rate hike cycle on schedule. The bottom line? The USD Index’s fundamentals remain extremely healthy, and while short-term sentiment has been unkind, rising real yields and a hawkish Fed should remain supportive over the medium term. Moreover, with the PMs often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, more downside should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks over the next few months. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 4, despite the spike in U.S. Treasury yields. However, with so much volatility confronting the general stock market recently, sentiment has pulled the PMs in many directions. However, the important point is that the medium-term thesis remains intact: the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields should seek higher ground, and the realization is profoundly bearish for the precious metals sector. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold continues to recover as the US dollar treads water. The previous fall below the daily support at 1785 had put the bulls on the defensive. The RSI’s oversold signal attracted some buying interest and prompted sellers to cover, driving up the price. The rebound has since gained traction after the metal rallied above the support-turned-resistance at 1817. In fact, the bullish breakout may raise momentum and open the door to the recent peak at 1850. On the downside, 1795 is a major support to keep buyers committed. NZDUSD remains under pressure The New Zealand dollar edges lower amid cautious market sentiment at the start of the week. The pair previously bounced off September 2020’s low around 0.6530. However, 0.6700 on the 20-day moving average so far has proven to be a tough hurdle. A drop below the fresh support (0.6630) indicates that the directional bias remains bearish. And sellers would be eager to fade another rebound. 0.6590 is the closest support. A break below 0.6530 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.6400. UK 100 awaits breakout The FTSE 100 rallies supported by solid performance in the commodity sector. The recent rebound hit resistance near the January peak at 7640. Narrowing consolidation and higher highs suggest increased buying pressure. A bullish breakout would flush sellers out and attract momentum traders, firing up volatility in the process. This would be a strong bullish continuation signal. 7460 is a fresh support if the market remains indecisive. Its breach could extend the correction back to 7250.

Stacking bitcoins winning edges It is not the number of edges that get it low risk. And again, there are no hidden magic formulas. What works well is covering multiple aspects in stacking one’s edges: Market behavior Time of day Oscillators for ranging markets Indicators for trending markets Supply/demand zone identification (VWAP=volume weighted average price, in addition to support and resistance lines) Inter-market relationships Leading/lagging (relative strength within a sector or group) Candlestick pattern Volume Time frame relationships Action-reaction principle News Day of the week Swing leg count MAE (=maximum adverse excursion) Mathematical/statistical edges like standard deviation Your list might look vastly different but should include tools that cover the principal variants of market behavior (ranging, trending, slow/fast price action, liquidity, time, volume, transactions). Investopedia is a good research tool for finding definitions and explanations of the various available technical tools. BTC in US-Dollar, daily chart, how we stack odds in our favor: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 8th, 2022. Our previous chart book release described fundamental reasons for being bullish on bitcoin, which we stack in a similar principled fashion. We pointed out that we were looking for low-risk entry points to build up a long-term position for bitcoin. Such a low-risk opportunity arose on February 3rd, last week. We had the following edges stacked at the time of entry (green arrow): General price strength (directional yellow line channel) Previous day retracement (action-reaction principle) Small range Doji for tight stop and possible reversal indication VWAP (blue histogram to the right of the chart) indicating a supply zone Scheduled ECB news item out of the way Time of week Time of day (we entered near the close of the daily candle) Extended from the mean (blue line, standard deviation) Commodity Channel Index (CCI). A momentum-based oscillator useful in congested sideways channels, gave the prior day to execution indication of a long entry (yellow arrow) We posted our entry in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Within a 24-hour period, we could profit on half of the position size for a gain of 8.73%. We also posted this first profit-taking target in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Our quad exit strategy provides income-producing revenues like this but, even more, eliminates risk. Consequently, this approach supports trading the remaining position with psychological ease for the intended long-term holding period. Hence, even starting out as a a short-term trade, the last 25% of the initial position can become a long-term invest. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, well-positioned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 8th, 2022. With previous entries at recent lows established in much the same manner, we are now exposed to the market with seven remaining rest positions at zero risk. Such an approach can afford to negate whether this will be the long-term turning point or not. Profits have been made. Should our plan pan out, then the remaining exposed capital will lead to further profits. Otherwise, this remaining position size will stop out at breakeven entry level. The weekly chart shows now a confirmed situation of a weekly bar takeout. For most traders this is an entry signal while we were already well established. We are playing with the market’s money and profits banked. With this time frame alignment more money is expected to join the long side. The chart also illustrates the favorable risk/reward-ratio to the right of the chart.   BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, early bird: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of February 8th, 2022. A glance at the monthly chart shows we are positioned very early and aggressively for this time frame. Nevertheless, as soon as prices might reach US$48,000, we will find ourselves here as well time frame aligned with a bar takeout. Green numbers show our entry prices for January with two entries and February with five entries. Should prices move upwards in our favor, we would take again partial profits near the red horizontal trend line slightly below all-time highs. The remaining positions stays in place for a possible breakout to all-time new highs. Too late if you are not positioned yet? No! This continuous flow of adding low-risk entry trades followed by partial profit-taking allows participating at all stages of market swings. Stacking bitcoins winning edges: In short, you want to have a clear instruction sheet on what to do in whatever market condition bitcoin throws at you. With a set of tools broadly covering all these variants and measuring them, you will be able to act without hesitancy. Then you can hope for the best, since you planned for the worst. Risk control is the core of each advanced trading approach! We aim to keep it simple, like a card counter, which supports executing high probability winning trades. At the same time, the crowd is confronted by surprising news or fast-moving markets. They use reactionary, inappropriate execution, which in turn creates losing trades. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 6th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Sandbox price action has broken above $4.72 but fades in early trading today. SAND price action is at the intersection of a red descending trend line and the historical pivot level. Expect current favourable tailwinds to boost confidence for bulls leading to a break to the upside and new all-time highs. Sandbox (SAND) price action broke above $4.72 yesterday and saw bulls trying to test $5.0. But the intersection of the descending trend line and a pivot level proved to be too heavy and pushed price action back below the $4.72 historical level. Expect bulls to keep supporting as more tailwinds coming from geopolitics support the case for more upside potential towards $6.0. Sandbox price targets $6 for this week Sandbox price looked set to finally end the downtrend since November 25. The intersection of the red descending trend line dictating the downtrend and the historical $4.72 pivotal historic level from November 23, proved too big of a hurdle for price action to close above yesterday. Instead, bulls decided to take profit with price fading as we speak. SAND does not need to one-directionally tank further but will probably see bulls keeping price close to the pivotal $4.72 level. With several favorable tailwinds, such as positive news from talks between Putin and Macron, investors look to be back on the scene and putting some money on the table to invest in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This will filter through in the demand side volume and will provide the needed impetus to punch through $4.72 again and close above, putting an end to the downtrend and targeting $6.0 this week. SAND/USD daily chart The resistance double whammy at the aforementioned intersection could prove too big of a temptation for profit-taking, and result in the Relative Strength Index dipping further, below 50, and translate into further downside for the altcoin towards $4.28, making it even harder to try for a daily close above $4.72. That could lead to yet more liquidation and see a return to a base level around $3.50.

  The S&P 500 index remains close to the 4,500 level following last week’s retreat. Was this just a downward correction? The broad stock market index lost 0.37% on Monday, as it continued to fluctuate within a short-term consolidation. The broad stock market’s gauge retraced some of its recent rally, as it fell to the local low of 4,451.50 on Friday. The market found a short-term bottom after reversing from last Wednesday’s local high of 4,595.31. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower. We will likely see more consolidation along the 4,500 level. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,540, market by the recent local highs. The resistance level is also at 4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450. The S&P 500 continues to trade below the November-January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Relatively Weaker The technology Nasdaq 100 index followed a similar path last week, as it retraced some of the rally. It remains relatively weaker than the broad stock market. The support level is at 13,800-14,000, and the resistance level is at 15,000-15,200. Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It broke above the short-term downward trend line a week ago before rallying up to around the 4,600 level. It’s trading along the 4,500 level after backing from the Wednesday’s high of 4,586. The market remains close to the resistance level of its previous local lows, but there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. So in our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index trades within a short-term consolidation following the decline from last week’s Wednesday’s local high. The market will likely extend its consolidation, as investors will be waiting for the Thursday’s Consumer price index release. The quarterly earnings season is mostly over now, and there is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely trade within a consolidation ahead of the important Thursday’s consumer inflation number release. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

EURUSD hits resistance The euro fell back after ECB President Lagarde tried to cool rate hike expectations. The rally came under pressure at the January peak of 1.1480. The RSI’s overextension at this daily resistance prompted momentum buyers to cash in. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling may drive the exchange rate lower. Short-term sentiment remains upbeat though unless the single currency drops below the origin of its bullish push at 1.1270. A recovery above 1.1480 could pave the way to last October’s high at 1.1690. GBPUSD consolidates gains The sterling turns higher as traders price in an increasingly hawkish Bank of England. A break above 1.3520 forced sellers to cover some of their positions. However, the pound’s rally came to a halt in the supply zone around 1.3620. The RSI’s overbought situation and bearish divergence suggest softness in the underlying momentum. The pair found bids on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3490), which sits in the aforementioned supply area. A new rally may propel the pair to the daily resistance at 1.3750. US 30 bounces higher The Dow Jones 30 inches higher supported by better-than-expected earnings. The index steadied after successive breaks above 34800 and 35450. Nonetheless, the recent recovery slowed down on the 30-day moving average, a sign of a lingering cautious mood. 34500 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. A bearish breakout could extend the correction to 33800. On the upside, a rally above 35700 could attract momentum traders and initiate a bullish reversal to 36500.

NIO stock gets a strong rating from latest Barclays research. NIO remains bearish and is down 25% year to date. NIO and other Chinese EV names remain in growth mode as the latest delivery data showed. NIO stock remains mired as it ended Monday virtually flat. The stock is down over 40% from three months ago as Chinese names see international investors flee on regulatory concerns. NIO Stock News It has been a turbulent time for holders of Chinese tech stocks. Alibaba's ANT Group spin-off set things off. Then the DIDI delisting not long after its IPO added to woes. Then a host of regulatory crackdowns was the final straw for international investors who bailed out of the names en masse. This is despite the EV names in particular remaining on track from a growth perspective as all have posted strong delivery data. While January deliveries slowed from December, the yearly growth rates still are impressive. January is traditionally the slowest month of the year in China though due to the lunar new year. NIO for example delivered 7.9% fewer vehicles in January versus December. On a yearly basis, January deliveries were 33.6% higher. This was replicated across many other Chinese EV names. Now Barclays has picked up the theme as it issues a bullish note this morning. "We believe that the rapid adoption of EVs around the world and booming EV sales have presented China’s EV makers a rare opportunity to not only take a sizable market share of the domestic auto market – the largest in the world with about 25-30% global share by units sold per annum – but also build a dominant position on the world stage." Barclays put a $34 price target on the shares. This does highlight the potential growth potential of Chinese tech stocks and the EV space in particular. We question whether investors will reenter, however, having been let down previously. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice... Ok, let's not have another George W. Bush moment! The point is a valid one. It will likely take more than analyst upgrades to tempt investors back to the space. Goldman, the king of investment banks, has previously been strongly bullish on NIO and to no avail. It will take a series of strong earnings and relative calm in terms of regulatory concerns to eventually tempt investors back. NIO Stock Forecast The recent spike lower did fill the gap from back in October 2020. The market just loves to fill gaps. We also note this spike lower created a shooting star candle, a possible reversal signal. There is already a bullish divergence from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as shown. The area around $27.34 is the first resistance. Getting back above indicates the bearish trend may finally be slowing. That would then bring NIO into a range-bound zone from $27 to $32. Only breaking $33.80 from January 3 ends the downtrend. Support is at $14 from the strong volume profile. Look for an RSI breakout as that could signal more gains. The RSI has been shrinking in range and may test an upside breakout. NIO 1-day chart

Bitcoin price slows down its ascent after flipping the $42,748 hurdle into a foothold. Ethereum price contemplates a retracement after facing the 50-day SMA at $3,208. Ripple price looks ready for consolidation after a 51% ascent over the past four days. Bitcoin price rally is slowing, allowing bulls to take a breather before the next leg-up. While some might argue the short-term outlook looks bearish – due to the flash crash in January, the bigger picture reveals cryptocurrency (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies) markets still have the potential to go higher. A Wells Fargo report published in February reveals that cryptocurrency adoption is growing exponentially and, in many cases, resembles the growth curve of internet adoption. The American financial corporation even goes on to state the crypto sector could soon exit the initial phases of adoption and enter “an inflection point of hyper-adoption.” Wells Fargo Report: Internet usage history vs crypto users Bitcoin price at a decisive moment Bitcoin price rallied 25% in the last four days and set up a swing high at $45,539.(https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-begins-correction-after-45k-rejection-where-can-btc-price-bounce-next-202202081914) The rally rippled out, triggering copycat moves in other altcoins and the cryptocurrency market in general. Yet BTC failed to produce a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387. So, as a result, the bearish outlook is still in play. Investors should be prepared for anything between a minor retracement and a full-blow bear trap. An optimistic scenario will likely see BTC retest the weekly support level at $39,481 before triggering the next leg-up. A more pessimistic scenario, however, would speculate that Bitcoin price could crash to $34,752. A breakdown of this support floor could be the key to triggering a crash to $30,000 or lower. BTC/USD 1-day chart While things look on the fence for Bitcoin price, (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin) a daily candlestick close above $44,387 will invalidate the bearish thesis. A bullish regime, however, will only kick-start if BTC produces a daily candlestick (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart/candlestick-patterns) close above $52,000.   Ethereum price takes a breather Ethereum (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/ethereum) price seems to be undergoing a pullback (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-holds-above-3k-but-network-data-suggests-bulls-may-get-trapped-202202090153) as it faces off with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,208 while still hovering inside a bearish breaker, extending from $2,789 to $3,167. A rejection here could lead to a retracement to $2,812, where buyers have a chance at restarting the uptrend. Assuming the bullish momentum picks up, there is a good chance ETH could slice through the $3,208 and make a run for the $3,413 hurdle. The local top for Ethereum price could be capped around the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at roughly $3,600. ETH/USD 1-day chart On the other hand, if Ethereum price fails to stay above $2,812, it will indicate that buyers are taking a backseat. This development will invalidate the bullish scenario and trigger a crash to the weekly support level at $2,324. Ethereum price could liquidate bulls if ETH falls below $3,000 Ripple price to reestablish directional bias Ripple price broke out of its ten-day consolidation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/xrp-price-could-easily-return-to-1-under-one-condition-202202081437) and rallied 51% in just four days. This run-up sliced through the $0.740 and $0.817 hurdles, flipping them into support levels. While this climb was impressive, XRP price is likely to retrace as investors begin to book profits. The resulting selling pressure could push Ripple price down to the $0.740 support level where buyers can band together for a comeback. In some cases, the U-turn might not arrive until a retest of the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone. Regardless, investors can expect XRP price to run up to $1 and collect the liquidity resting above it. XRP/USD 1-day chart On the contrary, if the Ripple price fails to stay above the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone, it will reveal the lack of bullish momentum and hint that a further descent is likely. In this case, XRP price will sweep below the $0.518 support level to collect the sell-side liquidity resting beneath. XRP price could easily return to $1 under one condition

Peloton shares continue to be the most discussed stock on mainstream and social media. Two straight days of 20%-plus gains for PTON stock. The new CEO gets just the start he would have wanted. It is not exactly reassuring to your confidence when you step down as CEO of a company and the stock immediately explodes higher. Investors clearly had enough of Peloton's (PTON) former CEO John Foley. New man Barry McCarthy hits the ground running despite some mixed commentary from the analyst community this morning. Peloton Stock News Peloton reported earnings on Tuesday. The stock had already surged on news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) of a new CEO and continued reports that the company may be in the sights of big tech eyeing a potential takeover for the beleaguered fitness company. Revenue came in at $1.13 billion below the $1.15 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) came in below estimates at $-1.39 versus the $-1.20 estimate. The outlook was also weak with Peloton seeing full-year 2022 revenue at $3.8 billion, while analysts had forecast $4 billion. Following the results, Stifel maintained its buy rating on PTON with a $45 price target. Macquarie maintained its outperform rating with a lowered $60 price target, while Barclays also lowered its price target to $60 as well. Bank of America said, "Our estimates that assumed price cuts would drive new demand were too optimistic." BofA has a $42 price target for the stock. Peloton shares had already been strongly ahead in Tuesday's premarket before the earnings release. This was due to the new CEO and a cost-cutting plan including laying off 2,800 employees. The list of potential buyers for Peloton continued to grow as speculation mounted. Potential acquirers include virtually every major fitness company, numerous big tech firms, Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank. We do question whether in particular big tech would get much benefit out of the acquisition. Fitness has been a big part of the wearable market, and Peloton's subscribers are its value, but do Apple, Amazon and Google really struggle that much for users? Sports companies mentioned include Nike (NKE) and Adidas (ADDYY). These may make more sense as the subscribers could generate more value, add-ons and ancillary sales. Peloton Stock Forecast The weekly chart (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart) gives us all the information we need going back to the launch in September 2019. Peloton (PTON) rallied all the way up to $171 this time last year before steadily falling back. The stock has now totally retraced all of the pandemic gains and then some. In that respect, investors may be tempted to buy into the name as subscribers in 2019 totaled just over 500,000, whereas currently Peloton has 2.77 million subscribers. From the weekly chart, we can see the power of volume gaps we often talk about. Peloton broke sharply once it entered the light volume zone from $81 to $37. Now it has stabilized at a high volume zone and the point of control. This does set a potential base for the stock. (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) Peloton (PTON) chart, weekly The daily chart below shows we have had a bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) since the last earnings despite the share price continuing to slide. $23 remains support with first resistance at $46. This latest move is likely to calm down unless more takeover talk surfaces. If the price move does calm, then holding above $30 is key to keeping the bottom in place. Peloton (PTON) chart, daily  

US inflation data for January is in the spotlight in the markets today. The annual growth rate is expected to break 40-year records, reaching 7.3% compared with 7.0% in December. Higher oil prices in recent weeks will reinforce the general price index. But more important in this case may be the core CPI, where prices are expected to rise by 0.5% m/m and 5.9% y/y. Investors and traders expect this report to determine the Fed's next move in mid-March. Rising inflation above expectations and new signs that the inflation trend is taking root could reinforce dollar purchases as markets will immediately put into the price a higher chance of a 50 point rate hike in March and set up a determination for further hikes. And that promises to be bad news for the markets. Signs that inflation is close to its peak and on a downward path promises to be great news for stock markets and shift the balance towards dollar selling. Interest in equities increases when investors see signs of a sustained turnaround in inflation as they stop fearing the Fed's sharply hawkish stance on suppressing price growth.

AUDUSD breaks higher The Australian dollar climbs as traders wager on a hawkish shift from the Reserve Bank of Australia. On the daily chart, a break above the 30-day moving average suggests improved sentiment in the short term. The pair extended its gains after it broke the supply area around 0.7170. As sellers scramble to cover their bets, driving up bids, the rally is heading to the next resistance at 0.7210. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a temporary pullback with 0.7110 as the first support. EURGBP seeks support The euro consolidates gains amid mixed messages from the ECB. The pair found support at February 2020’s low at 0.8290, and a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests a potential turnaround. A break above the daily resistance at 0.8405 has put the single currency back on track. An overbought RSI led momentum traders to take profit. The current pullback is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.8405) which used to be a resistance. 0.8475 is the main hurdle for the reversal to gain traction. USOIL tests support WTI crude bounces higher after the EIA reported a sharp drop in US inventories. Price action is looking to consolidate its gains above the psychological level of 90.00. Sentiment remains upbeat though the bulls need to take a breather after the latest vertical ascent. 88.00 on the 20-day moving average is the immediate support. An oversold RSI may attract buying interest. A deeper retracement would test 85.00. A recovery above 92.30 could trigger momentum buying once again and resume the rally towards 95.00.

S&P 500 upswing continued amid increasing credit market support. Risk-on, finally – and commodities are on fire again, with precious metals awaiting their time in the spotlight. That‘s the big picture view as markets keep digesting the recently upgraded hawkish talk of the Fed. Or more precisely in my view, they‘re sniffing out the inevitability of the Fed having to make a U-turn later this year. Meanwhile, any temporary hint of lower Treasury yields – the reprieve is arriving – is eagerly embraced by the tech while value is disregarding that. As a result, S&P 500 market breadth is improving, and as stated yesterday, the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. Today‘s CPI data would show inflation isn‘t relenting – even White House warned about hot year on year figure coming. Coupled with the tightening job market, the question is now what remains of the budding S&P 500 upswing and bond market reprieve. It‘s becoming increasingly clear that the Fed would have to really move, and that inflation is biting and not exactly sinking input costs. That‘s where we have the cost-push inflation I talked relentlessly over many quarters last year, and wage pressures joining at the hip. It‘s really about letting copper and oil profits keep growing now, while taking off S&P 500 long ones off the table. Done, and PMs are to join next. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls had a great day, and need a solid close today against the poor inflation data. This isn‘t though likely to happen unless bonds hold up well during the regular session. Mission impossible, almost. Credit Markets HYG extended gains yesterday, and would need to defend them today. What remains of the risk-on posture, is key to determining the stock market rally longevity vs. waning power. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – I‘m not looking for setbacks during the opening selling pressure to last. The direction is firmly up. Crude Oil Crude oil is still pausing, but at the same time the bulls are readying a response. I‘m looking for continued trading in the recent range, followed by a break higher. Copper Copper is finally on the move, and the high volume speaks plenty about the buying pressure. I‘m looking for dips to be bought – I‘m not expecting a stampede of the bears taking advantage of a „shorting opportunity“. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t plunging, but the test of the bullish resolve is arriving today – let‘s see what kind of reversal it turns into. The volume looks solid, so I count on more than a daily setback as a minimum. Summary S&P 500 meets unpleasantly high inflation, which is forcing the hand of the Fed. Stocks are going to have a hard time recovering, and the bullish window of opportunity may be drastically shortened. Good to have taken profits off the table automatically through the trailing stop-loss – commodities would be more resilient. That‘s where real gains are – in real assets, as inflation is returning to the spotlight. Rightfully so as the Fed is desperately behind the curve, and precious metals need to fully get that. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The market was up, but mining stocks chose to reverse. Meanwhile, gold sent a clear signal to investors. So, when everyone buys, what happens? The gold mining stocks and silver mining stocks have reversed, even though gold didn’t. The top for the former is likely in. Most developments regarding the precious metals and their immediate surroundings were a continuation of what we had seen in the previous days, but one thing was different. That one thing is particularly informative. It has trading implications, too. Without further ado, let’s jump into mining stocks. Gold miners fell. Even though they declined by just $0.06, it was profound. The miners were following gold higher during the early part of yesterday’s (Feb. 9) session, but they lost strength close to the middle thereof and were back down before the closing bell. If the gold price reversed and then declined during the day, that would have been normal. However, gold stayed up. It’s fairer to compare GDX to GLD than to compare GDX to gold continuous futures contracts, as the former have the same closing hours, so let’s take a look at what GLD did yesterday. There was no reversal. GLD simply stopped at its declining medium-term resistance line. Also, the general stock market was up yesterday. Consequently, gold mining stocks had no good reason to decline. In fact, they “should have” rallied. They didn’t – they reversed instead. This tells us that the buying power has either dried up or is drying up. When everyone who wanted to get into the market is already in it, the price can do only one thing (regardless of bullish factors) – fall. Those who are already in can then sell. Monitoring the markets for this kind of cross-sector performance is one of the more important gold trading tips. Look, I’m not saying that declines now are “guaranteed”. There are no guarantees in the markets. There might be buyers that haven’t considered mining stocks that would now enter the market, but history tells us that this is unlikely. Instead, declines are very likely to follow. Let’s focus on the GLD ETF chart one more time. As I wrote earlier, it approached its declining medium-term resistance line. Any small breakout here is likely to be invalidated just like what we saw previously in November 2021 and January 2022. This time, however, the volume is low, so gold might not have enough strength for a breakout, and it could decline right away. Junior mining stocks provide us with a perfect confirmation of the bearish narrative. I emphasized before that juniors hadn’t moved above their 50-day moving average, and that they stayed below their rising blue resistance line. Consequently – I wrote – the downtrend in them remained clearly intact. Yesterday’s reversal served as a perfect confirmation of the above. The previous breakdowns were verified in one of the most classic ways. The silver price has been quite strong recently, which is also something that we see close to the local tops. The reversals in mining stocks, the situation in gold, AND the situation in the USD Index together paint a very bearish picture for the precious metals market in the short and medium term. By “the situation in the USD Index”, I’m referring to the fact that it’s after its early-month reversal and right above its rising medium-term support line that was not successfully broken. Since the USD Index remains above its rising medium-term support line, the trend remains up. Therefore, higher – not lower – USD Index values are to be expected. All in all, it seems that gold, silver, and mining stocks are going to decline in the coming weeks (quite possibly days) and that we won’t have to wait too long for the next big decline to start. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

On Thursday, the Russian ruble rolled back to 74.50, and on Friday morning, it rewrote these local lows to recover to the levels from which it started the year, winning back the failure in geopolitics. However, the strengthening of the ruble took place not so much on political de-escalation but on the actions of the Bank of Russia. And today, we are waiting for new actions that can both strengthen the positions of the Russian currency and return the ruble to the path of decline. We are inclined to believe that the CBR will remain on the side of the ruble. When making a decision on the key rate, the CBR will weigh the actual and expected inflation rates both in Russia and in the world, and there is little reason to relax. The latest estimates of inflation in Russia have shown that the annual rate of price growth has accelerated again, requiring a further tightening of the screws. Under these conditions, the Bank of Russia is likely to raise the rate by 100 points - the second time in a row. Previously, the CBR maintained parity between the rate and the annual inflation rate, but now it makes sense to step up pressure to suppress inflation. At the same time, we should be prepared to hear comments that such a sharp increase may not be required in the future. Based on inflationary trends, the key rate could reach its 10% ceiling for this tightening cycle before the end of March and then hold at this level for another year. Another factor is the volatility of the ruble and geopolitics. In January, the CBR decided to suspend purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance in order to reduce pressure on the ruble in the Russian financial market. The biggest risk for the ruble is that the CBR will announce today that it is returning to buying foreign currency. Such a move could hit the ruble hard. However, we believe that it would be logical for the CBR to extend the pause in purchases at least until the end of the exercises in Belarus, that is, until the end of February. The strengthening of the ruble, as a side effect of expensive oil and the suspension of foreign currency purchases, can additionally work to slow down import inflation and consumer inflation in general. If we are right, then the ruble may remain in an uptrend until the end of February, rushing to the 71 area by the end of the month. However, it is still difficult to expect a steady growth of the Russian currency to the area below 70.

Thursday’s data showed that consumer prices in the US advanced from 7.0% to 7.5% in January, more than 7.3% penciled in by analysts. The Fed hawks came back in charge aggressively following the US inflation print as St Louis President Bullard said he’d ‘like to see 100 basis points in the bag by July 1’. All three major US indices were moody yesterday, but Nasdaq led losses as it’s the most sensitive to the rate changes. Rising hawkish noises from the Federal Reserve (Fed) backed the US dollar. The EURUSD is back below the 1.14 mark and Christine Lagarde insists that acting too fast could choke the economy’s recovery, but not acting at all will choke the economy, as well. In commodities, gold first rallied than fell warning again that it may not be the best inflation hegde at the current levels, but commodity ETFs and energy-heavy stock indices are. In this episode, you will find my favorite inflation hedge plays. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:30 Inflation & Fed talk 2:20 Risk appetite: hammered 3:32 Bitcoin: NOT the best macro play for this year 4:51 USD up, EUR down, but… 6:00 Best inflation hedge ideas Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

  Stocks retraced their Wednesday’s advance yesterday. Was this a downward reversal, or just a correction within an uptrend? The S&P 500 index lost 1.81% on Thursday, Feb. 10 after gaining 1.5% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to higher-than-expected inflation number release. Investors fear that the rising inflation will lead to a faster tightening by the Fed. On Wednesday the index got close to its previous Wednesday’s local high of 4,595.31, and yesterday it fell to the 4,500 level (the daily low was at 4,484.31). This morning the market will likely open 0.2% higher after an overnight decline. We may see some more short-term uncertainty. For now, it looks like a flat correction or a consolidation within an uptrend from the Jan. 24 local low of 4,222.62. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,550-4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,450-4,500. The S&P 500 index is close to the previous Friday’s daily closing price, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Trades Along the 4,500 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It broke above the short-term downward trend line in late January before rallying up to around the 4,600 level. Since then, it has been fluctuating along the 4,500 level. The market remains at the resistance level of its previous local lows, but there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. So in our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely extend its almost two-week long consolidation after rallying from the mentioned late January local low. So far, it looks like a consolidation within an uptrend. The quarterly earnings season is mostly over now, and there is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely open slightly higher this morning and we may see more fluctuations along the 4,500 level. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 upswing was rejected – the intraday comeback didn‘t succeed. Risk-off posture won the day, and the dust is settling. Day 4-5 of the rally‘s window of opportunity that I talked on Monday, is proving as a milestone. Hot CPI data has increased the bets on Mar 50bp rate hike to a virtual certainty, and asset prices didn‘t like that. Not just stocks across the board, but commodities likewise (to a modest degree only) gave up intraday gains, turning a little red. Cryptos too ended down – it had been a good decision to cash in solid open long profits in S&P 500, oil and copper. Fresh portfolio highs reached over this 12+ months period (details on my homepage): What‘s the game plan for today? As the dollar closed flat while yields rose, I‘m not ruling out a reflexive intraday rebound attempt – after all, the bears should rule in the 2nd half of Feb most clearly. As time passes, the rips would be sold into unless bonds and tech can catch a solid bid. With focus on inflation, that‘s unlikely. Medium-term S&P 500 bias continues being short while commodity dips are to be cautiously bought. Crude oil looks to need to spend a bit more time around $90 while copper defending the low $4.50 is equally important. While silver didn‘t rise by nearly as much as the red metal did, it is down approximately as much in today‘s premarket – the white metal would recover on a less headline heavy day. Remember that PMs are trading sideways to up, with decreasing sensitivity to rising 10-year yield, and have done historically well when rate hikes finally start. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 momentum has sharply shifted to the downside, and today‘s recovery attempts are likely to be sold into. I‘m keeping a keen eye on bonds, tech and risk-on in general – not expecting miracles. Credit Markets HYG keeps showing the way, resolutely down as of yesterday. With rising yields not propelling even financials, the bears have returned a few days earlier than they could – in a show of strength. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners issued a warning to gold and silver – yesterday brought a classic short-term top sign. I‘m though not ascribing great significance to it, for it isnt‘a turning point. Gold would be relatively unmoved while silver recovers however deep setback it suffers today. Crude Oil Crude oil appears to need more time to base – while the upside is being rejected for now, the selling attempts aren‘t materializing at all. Higher volume adds to short-term indecision, but strong (long) hands are to win. Copper Copper is running into selling pressure, and looks in need of consolidation in order to overcome $4.60. The red metal remains true to its reputation for volatility. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking their time, and the bulls need to act. Given that volume isn‘t disappearing, the bears have a short-term advantage. Summary S&P 500 looks to be getting under pressure soon again, today. There is no support from bonds, unless these stage an intraday risk-on reversal. The momentum is with the sellers, and rips are likely to be sold as markets digest yet more hawkish Fed action slated for March. Digest and slated are the key words – the Fed‘s hand is being forced here. Commodities and precious metals are likely to do best in what‘s coming – the 5-10 day window of bullish S&P 500 price action, is slowly closing down. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Given last week’s strong price action and gold’s intraday resilience, it is now very likely that gold indeed is breaking out of the multi-month consolidation triangle. Actually, this large and symmetrical triangle had been building for more than a year, at least. However, the correction in gold began on August 7th, 2020. Now it looks like the breakout is in process. Typically, traders tend to aggressively buy into such a breakout. And given Friday’s sharp spike higher, it actually looks exactly like this. Hence, expect more volatility and a sharp move higher as the direction of gold’s next move has become more obvious. Please note, that it is rather challenging to draw and determine the correct triangle, because gold has been in a tricky sideways market for such a long time and many trend-lines have been invalidated during this messy period. But at the latest, a weekly close above US$1,875 should confirm the breakout. This should unleash enough energy to push gold prices quickly towards US$1,900 and even US$1,950 within a few weeks. Obviously, that would fit very well with gold’s seasonal cycle, which is bullish until the end of February at least, but often saw gold rallying into mid of march, too. Consumer sentiment at 10-year low but Fed wants to hike and taper From a fundamental perspective, it leaves us speechless how the Fed can go on a hiking rampage while consumer sentiment is at a 10-year low. While the confidence in governments worldwide is collapsing and inflation is spiking higher, raising rates will have zero impact upon supply shortages. Instead, it will make these shortages only worse and bankrupt more companies in the supply chain. Also, it will bankrupt emerging markets, as the strong dollar has already been putting so much pressure on dollar indebted nations and creditors. It’s all a big mess, and we believe there is no way out. That’s why the warmongering industrial and military complex of the US is desperately trying to push Russia into an attack on Ukraine! Without showing any proof, the Biden administration and their mouthpiece “the mainstream media” have been pushing people’s focus on fears that Russia will soon invade Ukraine. Another noteworthy fundamental observation: Gold’s correction began in earnest when Pfizer & Biontech announced their vaccine on November 9th, 2020. In a first reaction, gold immediately sold off $150 on that same day. Many more similar large red daily candles followed over the last 16 months, destroying the confidence of the gold bugs and shifting millions of dollars to the short sellers. Now that more and more very serious questions about the vaccines are debated in the news, it would make sense for gold to run back to US$1,950. This was the level where gold was trading back on November 9th, 2020. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the weekly chart, gold has been slowly but surely progressing into the apex of the triangle over the last few months. It now looks like Gold is breaking out with vengeance. Theoretically, the resistance zone between US$1,850 and US$1,875 could still stop the bullish train. The weekly Bollinger Bands (US$1,864) sits right in this zone and should at least challenge the bulls for some days. However, the weekly stochastic has just given a new buy signal. On top, the oscillator has been making higher lows since March 2021. A measured move out of this triangle could take gold to around US$1,950 to US$1.975 until spring. The monthly Bollinger Band ($1,975) could become the logical target! Overall, the weekly chart is becoming more and more bullish, suggesting that gold can at least move around US$80 to US$100 higher. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the daily chart, gold has been struggling with the upper triangle resistance in November and January. Each time, the bears managed to push back. Now it looks like the bulls are finally successful. The fierce and sharp pullback two and half weeks ago had created a nice oversold setup which became the launching pad for the ongoing attack. Since then, the slow stochastic has been nicely turning around. This buy signal is still active and has not yet reached the overbought zone. Thanks to Friday’s big green candle, the bulls are now bending the upper Bollinger Band (US$1,858) to the upside. To conclude, the daily chart is bullish, and gold should have more upside. If the bulls continue their attack, we could see prices directly exploding for four to seven days. More likely would be a consolidation. Only with prices below US$1,835 the breakout would have failed. In that rather unlikely case, the picture could quickly turn ugly again. Conclusion: Gold is breaking out! In mid of December, gold made an important low around US$1,752. Back then, most gold bugs had enough and did throw in the towel after a very difficult and messy 16-month correction. Gold, silver and the mining stock had become the most hated asset. But actually, all that gold might have been doing was building an epic base and a launch pad to start the next leg higher within its bull market. Overall, we expect that Gold is breaking out after a short consolidation! The successful breakout above resistance between US$1,850 and US$1,875 should happen within the next few days or weeks. This should then lead to higher prices and gold will likely run towards US$1,950, at least. However, we are not sure yet whether this will also bring an attack towards the round number resistance at US$2,000. Given the fact, that gold usually starts to struggle somewhere in spring, the ongoing rally could still be just a counter-trend move within the larger ongoing consolidation/correction. Hence, we are short-term very bullish, mid-term neutral and long-term very bullish for gold. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 13th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

USDCHF to test resistance The US dollar rises as traders seek safe haven amid tensions in Ukraine. The pair is grinding up along a rising trendline from support at 0.9180. A series of higher lows suggests strong buying interest. A break above the intermediate resistance at 0.9275 may boost buyers’ confidence further. 0.9310 is the next hurdle and its breach would bring the greenback to the double top (0.9370) on the daily chart. On the downside, the trendline is the closest support, and then 0.9180 is a critical level to keep the short-term rally intact. GBPJPY tests demand zone The pound may find support from Britain’s upbeat GDP in Q4. A break above January’s high at 157.70 suggests that the bulls have reclaimed control of price action. The next challenging task is to push above last October’s peak at 158.20. This would resume the uptrend in the medium term. In the meantime, a combination of profit-taking and fresh selling is driving the price towards 155.20. Sentiment would remain steady as long as the sterling met bidders in this demand area. US 30 seeks support The Dow Jones 30 struggled as white-hot US inflation fanned fears of aggressive rate hikes. Nonetheless, a break above the 30-day moving average on the daily chart indicates improved market sentiment. An overbought RSI prompted momentum traders to exit. A fall below 34820 would suggest lingering hesitation among market participants and shake out weak hands. The bulls may see a pullback towards 34500 as a buying opportunity. The rebound may only resume if the price lifts offers around 35400.

Dogecoin price action is under pressure as global markets are nervous about a possible escalation between Ukraine and Russia. DOGE looks set to break the low from the previous week and dip towards $0.1357 Expect once DOGE price reaches that level to see a rally into the weekend that could hold 40% gains. Dogecoin (DOGE) is set for a solid rally but first needs to face the most vital forces with global markets pressing on all assets with a mood of risk-off, as today and tomorrow could be the tipping point in the escalation towards a war between Russia and Ukraine. As tailwinds are just too big a force to face, DOGE will dip further towards solid support at $0.1357. Once bulls enter, expect a big rally that could swing up to 40% towards $0.19. Time for the bulls to stake a step back and look at the bigger picture Dogecoin is under pressure as the overall cryptocurrency space joins global markets rattled by a crucial moment in the Russia-Ukraine development. As Russian army exercises near the Ukrainian border are set to end tomorrow, the crucial moment for a possible invasion to take place before then. This is putting markets on edge with risk-off across the board and EU equities down more than 3%. This risk sentiment is weighing on DOGE price action with the low of last week being tested, and bears using the entry-level from Sunday at $0.1594 where the 55-day Simple Moving Average and the pivotal historical level delivered a firm rejection to the upside. With that, expect this downtrend to continue today and dip towards $0.1357, which already proved its support at the end of January. Once there, expect bulls to jump on the opportunity and lead a rally that could jump as much as 40% towards $0.19 once the geopolitical rhetoric dies down and cools off. DOGE/USD daily chart Should Russia engage in war with Ukraine and invade, expect this to pull the trigger for investors to flee the markets and cause a fire sale across the board. For DOGE this would mean that it could tank another 24% on top of the 7% forecasted for today. That would bring DOGE price action down to around $0.1030, where the monthly S1 support level is situated, the red descending trendline and the $0.1000 psychological level – providing three elements that could catch the falling price action.

S&P 500 opening range gave way to heavy selling as 4,470s didn‘t hold. Risk-on was overpowered, and the flight to Treasuries didn‘t support tech. And that‘s most medium-term worrying – stocks don‘t look to have found a floor, and gave up the opportunity for a tight range trading on Friday all too easily. The prospects of war were that formidable opponent, against which the S&P 500 didn‘t really stand a chance. So, the downtrend has reasserted itself, and HYG doesn‘t look to have found a floor – junk bonds are leading to the downside, with energy, materials and financials standing out, which isn‘t exactly a bullish constellation. The other key beneficiaries of the safe haven bid were gold, miners and oil. Silver lagged as copper retreated all too easily, but I‘m looking for that to change. As for Monday‘s session in stocks, the odds of a countertrend move to the upside, at least intraday, are good. Just a quick glance at the dollar, gold, oil and Bitcoin would reveal the extent of possible stabilization. Stabilization, not a reversal, because HYG is unlikely to turn up, and I‘m not looking for stocks to start moving up again. Thursday marked a high point in the countertrend rally, which was cut short after some 5 days only. Sideways to a little up is the best the bulls can hope for on Monday. Funny though how with all eyes on Eastern Europe, the inflation and steep rate hike bets receded? What a Super Bowl! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Whatever backing and filling there could have been, the S&P 500 didn‘t hesitate, and is pointing to the downside. The bears are back, and aren‘t yielding. Credit Markets Credit markets went decidedly risk-off, and a little sideways reprieve wouldn‘t be surprising. But it would change nothing as the bets on rising rates, are on, and the 2-year Treasury is forcing the Fed‘s hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold came alive on the tensions escalation news – the uptrend is alive and well indeed, even without these geopolitical developments. The upswing wasn‘t really sold into. Crude Oil Crude oil correction came to an abrupt close, and it‘s unlikely black gold would dip in the current environment. The upcoming corrections would be bought as much as the previous one, and given the oil stocks performance, wouldn‘t likely reach far to the downside. Copper Copper is under pressure, and not holding up as well as other commodities. Base metals though are breaking higher, which is why I‘m looking at Friday‘s red metal trading as a temporary setback only. Bitcoin and Ethereum The floor in cryptos is heralding a tight range day – it‘s good for risk-on that Friday‘s downswing isn‘t immediately continuing, it‘s buying some time. Summary S&P 500 bears are back in the driver‘s seat, and the rush to Treasuries took the spotlight off rate hikes – to a small degree. Not that the Fed would be changing course on geopolitics, we aren‘t there yet. To the contrary, credit markets are pressuring the central bank to move – as decisively as possible in the overleveraged system – and Powell would find it hard not to deliver. Come autumn latest, the strain on the real economy would be hard to ignore – real estate is feeling the pinch already. Stock bulls can‘t expect higher prices unless tech recovers, and we look to be still far from that moment. Real assets with safe haven appeal are likely to do best, and the same goes for the dollar temporarily too. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

TSLA drops nearly 5% on Friday as macro factors in charge. All EV stocks LCID, Chinese names suffer the same fate. Tesla once again is targetting its 200-day moving average. Tesla (TSLA) followed many EV names (all, if we are correct) lower on Friday as macro factors took charge over equity markets. The dominant theme so far in 2022 has been one of rising rates and inflationary pressures. This has led to high growth and tech names underperforming, while energy and financial stocks have been the place to be. That is likely to remain the theme for at least the next quarter if not also Q2. Russia and Ukraine tensions have pushed the oil price above $90, and financial stocks benefit from higher interest rates. Growth stocks, however, do not benefit from higher interest rates as investors look for businesses with cash. With higher interest rates, future cash flows become less valuable. So of the three names mentioned, Tesla, Rivian (RIVN) or Lucid (LCID), we would not want to currently be long any of them. We expect TSLA to perform best of the three due to its market-leading position and revenue, but this sector is out of favour and likely to remain so. Tesla Stock News The latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) confirms what we saw from Chinese EV companies earlier. Deliveries for January were down versus December. This is due to the lunar new year in China. Tesla sold 59,845 vehicles in January, down from 70,847 China-made vehicles in December. The Chinese electric vehicle market remains the largest EV market in the world, helped by government incentives and population demand. Tesla Stock Forecast Tesla remains in the strong downtrend identified earlier this year. $945 was tested multiple times as resistance and failed. This has resulted in the recent pullback. Now $824 remains as the 200-day moving average. Below we have trendline support at $752. The 200-day is the key level. Tesla has not closed below its 200-day moving average since June 2021. It has broken the 200-day on an intraday basis several times since but always failed to close below. Notice how volume has steadily been declining in Tesla this month, despite some hugely volatile days. This is indicative of a lack of conviction in the stock. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

  Gold continues to benefit from the market turmoil and has apparently forgotten about medium-term problems. Meanwhile, the rising USD and a hawkish Fed await confrontation. With financial markets whipsawing after every Russia-Ukraine headline, volatility has risen materially in recent days. With whispers of a Russian invasion on Feb. 16 (which I doubt will be realized), the game of hot potato has uplifted the precious metals market. However, as I noted on Feb. 14, while the developments are short-term bullish, the PMs’ medium-term fundamentals continue to decelerate. For example, while the general stock market remains concerned about a Russian invasion, U.S. Treasury yields rallied on Feb. 14. With risk-off sentiment often born in the bond market, the safety trade benefiting the PMs didn’t materialize in U.S. Treasuries. As a result, bond traders aren’t demonstrating the same level of fear. Please see below: Source: Investing.com Furthermore, while the potential conflict garners all of the attention, the fundamental issues that upended the PMs in 2021 remain unresolved. For example, with inflation surging, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Feb. 14 that “the last four [Consumer Price Index] reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the U.S. economy.” “The inflation that we’re seeing is very bad for low- and moderate-income households,” he said. “People are unhappy, consumer confidence is declining. This is not a good situation. We have to reassure people that we’re going to defend our inflation target and we’re going to get back to 2%.” As a result, Bullard wants a 50 basis point rate hike in March, and four rate hikes by July. Please see below: Source: CNBC Likewise, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is much less hawkish than Bullard, she also supports a rate hike in March. Source: CNBC As a result, while the PMs can hide behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the short term, their medium-term fundamental outlooks are profoundly bearish. As mentioned, Bullard highlighted inflation’s impact on consumer confidence, and for a good reason. With the University of Michigan releasing its Consumer Sentiment Index on Feb. 11, the report revealed that Americans’ optimism sank to “its worst level in a decade, falling a stunning 8.2% from last month and 19.7% from last February.” Chief Economist, Richard Curtin said: “The recent declines have been driven by weakening personal financial prospects, largely due to rising inflation, less confidence in the government's economic policies, and the least favorable long term economic outlook in a decade.” “The impact of higher inflation on personal finances was spontaneously cited by one-third of all consumers, with nearly half of all consumers expecting declines in their inflation adjusted incomes during the year ahead.” Please see below: To that point, I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that U.S. President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects often move inversely to inflation. With the dynamic still on full display, immediate action is needed to maintain his political survival. Please see below: To explain, the light blue line above tracks the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in inflation, while the dark blue line above tracks Biden’s approval rating. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the U.S. President remains in a highly perilous position. Moreover, with U.S. midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the Democrats can’t wait nine to 12 months for inflation to calm down. As a result, there is a lot at stake politically in the coming months. As further evidence, as inflation reduces real incomes and depresses consumer confidence, the Misery Index also hovers near crisis levels. Please see below: To explain, the blue line above tracks the Misery Index. For context, the index is calculated by subtracting the unemployment rate from the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI. In a nutshell, when inflation outperforms the unemployment rate (the blue line rises), it creates a stagflationary environment in America. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the Misery Index is approaching a level that coincided with the global financial crisis (GFC). As a result, reversing the trend is essential to avoid a U.S. recession. As such, with inflation still problematic and the writing largely on the wall, the market-implied probability of seven rate hikes by the Fed in 2022 is nearly 93% (as of Feb. 10). Please see below: Ironically, while consumers and the bond market fret over inflation, U.S. economic growth remains resilient. While I’ve been warning for months that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, continued strength should turn hawkish expectations into hawkish realities. To that point, the chart above shows that futures traders expect the U.S. Federal Funds Rate to hit 1.75% in 2022 (versus 0.08% now). However, Michael Darda, Chief Economist at MKM Partners, expects the Fed’s overnight lending rate to hit 3.5% before it’s all said and done. “We have this booming economy with high inflation and a rapid recovery in the labor market – much different relative to the last cycle,” he said. “The Fed is behind the curve this time. They are going to have to do more.”  Singing a similar tune, John Thorndike, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, told clients that “inflation is now here, [but] the narrative is that inflation goes away and markets tend to struggle with change. It is more likely than not that real yields and policy rates need to move above inflation during this cycle.” The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine drama distracts the PMs from the fundamental realities that confront them over the medium term, their outlooks remain profoundly bearish. Moreover, while I’ve noted on numerous occasions that the algorithms will enhance momentum in either direction, their influence wanes materially as time passes. As such, while headline risk is material in the short-term, history shows that technicals and fundamentals reign supreme over longer time horizons. Thus, while the recent flare-up is an unfortunate event that hurts our short position, the medium-term developments that led to our bearish outlook continue to strengthen. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 14, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the primary driver moving the financial markets. However, while the PMs will ride the wave as far as it takes them, they ignored that the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields also rallied. Moreover, with Fed officials ramping up the hawkish rhetoric, the PMs' fundamental outlook is more bearish now than it was in 2021 (if we exclude the Russia-Ukraine implications). As a result, while the timeline may have been delayed, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight. For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Pause but more likely a rebound, is what comes next for S&P 500. Closing above the 200-day moving average is possible, but more is needed for a trend reversal in this correction. Credit Markets Credit markets moderated their pace of decline, and there‘s no risk-on posture apparent yet. We may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold are benefiting from the tensions, but they‘ll just as easily give up some of these gains next. What‘s important though, is the continued trend of making higher highs and higher lows. Crude Oil Crude oil looks also likely to lose some of the prior safe haven bid, but similarly to precious metals, the trend is higher, and corrections are more or less eagerly bought. Only should the Fed‘s actions harm the real economy, would oil prices meaningfully decline. Copper Copper is rebounding, but still remains trading in a not too hot fashion – the red metal is still trailing behind other commodities significantly. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos deciding to go higher, is a positive sign for stocks as well – the volume looks to be noticeable enough at the close later today to lend the upswing credibility. Summary S&P 500 bulls have the opportunity today, but the market remains as headline sensitive as everything else. Treasuries stabilizing or even moving higher while funds flow out of the dollar, that would be a bullish confirmation – and the same goes for precious metals not getting hammered, but finding a decent floor. The point is that war jitters calming down when Russia doesn‘t take the bait, makes assets to continue with their prior trends and focus, which is Fed and tightening. The bets on 50bp rate hike in Mar went down recently, and when they start rising again, it would make sense to deploy more capital – including into oil above $90, give or take a buck. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

EURUSD bounces off support The US dollar retreats as the Fed’s half-point hike in March remains uncertain. The euro’s break above the daily resistance at 1.1480 boosted buyers’ confidence after a sell-off in January. It bounced off 1.1280 at the base of the recent bullish breakout. The support also is right next to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1265) making it an area of congestion. A close above the intermediate resistance (1.1370) would attract more buying interest. Then an extension above 1.1490 may fuel a rally towards 1.1600. GBPUSD awaits breakout The sterling holds well as Britain’s wage growth beats expectations in December. The current rebound came under pressure in the supply zone around 1.3660 which was the origin of a sharp drop in late January. An overbought RSI led to some profit-taking but the pound has found support above 1.3480. The bears’ failed attempts to push lower indicates strong demand. A bullish close above 1.3640 would lift offers towards last month’s high at 1.3750. The daily support at 1.3370 is a key floor in keeping the rally intact. XAUUSD seeks support Gold drifts lower on signs of de-escalation in Ukraine. A break above last November’s high at 1875 may have put the precious metal back on track. However, the rally ran out of steam in the short term with the RSI shooting into the overbought territory. The price is taking a breather and buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. A drop below 1852 may wash out weak hands and deepen the correction towards 1830. 1880 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could propel bullion to last June’s high at 1910.

S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that: (...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rebounded on low volume but that wouldn‘t be an issue in a healthy bull market – the trouble is that this 2022 price action isn‘t very healthy.Credit MarketsHYG didn‘t trade on a strong note, and the rise in yields continues almost unabated. This is what I meant yesterday by saying that we may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals suffered a temporary setback – they easily gave up some of the safe haven gains, which isn‘t surprising. The bulls though haven‘t lost control, and that‘s key.Crude OilCrude oil dip was bought, and there wasn‘t much bearish conviction to start with. The general uptrend is likely to continue, and $90 appears likely to hold over the next few days definitely.CopperCopper is now in for some backing and filling, but managed to catch up with other commodities a little yesterday. The red metal remains range bound, but making good bullish progress.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are paring back yesterday‘s advance, and unless the mid Feb lows give, they‘re likely to muddle through with a modest bullish bias till the attention shifts to the Fed again.SummaryS&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems slipping away with each 1D or 4H candle, and I‘m not counting on the credit markets to ride to stocks‘ rescue. The commodities bull though is likely to carry on with little interference – and so does the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing. Slowdown in economic growth with rampant inflation and the realization that the Fed tightening hasn‘t had the effect, is awaiting, and would usher in strong gold and silver gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Binance Coin takes a small step back this morning due to some profit-taking.BNB bulls hold all the cards as the relief rally is not over yet.Expect a pop above $444-$452 with a profit target set at $480 for the moment.Binance Coin (BNB) price action shot back above the red descending trend line yesterday with a massive relief rally that lifted market sentiment. With that, the downtrend looks to be broken, and an uptrend could be on the cards if bulls can take out the $444-$452 resistance barrier with a triple top formation, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the longer-term pivotal level all coincide in this region. Once through there, expect the next stage to be set for a move towards $480 with the 200-day SMA coming in, returning another 10%.Binance Coin set for the second phase in the recovery rallyBinance Coin is undergoing some profit-taking this morning after the solid relief rally from yesterday (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-decentraland-binance-dogecoin-asian-wrap-16-feb-video-202202160214) that has lifted market sentiment and saw some decent inflows into markets. On the way up, bulls hit some resistance from the double top from February 08 and January 21 and, in the process, made it a triple top resistance. This, together with the already known $452 and the 55-day SMA coming in at $445, makes it a substantial (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/binance-coin-must-break-out-above-this-level-before-bnb-can-retest-660-202202152150) barrier that will need to be broken to prove that the relief rally still has plenty of juice to go.Expect thus some profit-taking today, a little bit on the back foot with $419 as support to bounce off back to $445. Some more positive signals coming from the Russia-Ukraine developments could be the needed additional catalyst to push through this difficult barrier. The next target is set at $480, with the 200-day SMA falling in line with that considerable number, resulting in probably the same profit-taking pattern (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-and-shiba-inu-price-climbs-as-binance-smart-chain-whales-accumulate-meme-coins-202202151719) as BNB price action shows today.BNB/USD daily chartOverall, the US keeps claiming that the situation in Central-Europe remains precarious and could see an escalation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-binance-coin-and-decentraland-european-wrap-11-february-202202111055) any time now. Once those headlines hit the wires, expect the whole cryptocurrency space to collapse and for there to be a massive pullback from investors, with BNB price falling back initially to $389. Depending on the severity of the attacks, another push lower towards $340 would be the logical outcome and result in BNB price shedding 22% of its value.

Tesla bounces strongly on Tuesday as risk assets surge. TSLA stock gains just over 5% on Tuesday. Geopolitical tensions falling help risk appetites return. Tesla (TSLA) shares bounced strongly on Tuesday, eventually closing up over 5% in a strong day for equities. The stock market was buoyed by news of some Russian deployments returning to their bases. Russia then appeared to confirm this as hopes grew for a diplomatic solution. This saw an obvious bounce in equities (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) with the strongest names being those that were previously the weakest. Understandable, but is this gain sustainable? NATO this morning has said it sees no sign of Russian troops pulling back from the Ukraine border. NATO has said it sees Russian troop numbers still growing along the Russian-Ukraine border. This news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) still has legs. Volatility has been high as a result and will likely continue that way. Tesla Stock News The latest quarterly SEC filings have provided much information to pore over. In particular, Tesla, they do note some hedge fund selling. This is not too surprising given the record highs TSLA stock pushed on to before Elon Musk sold a stake. Benzinga reports that the latest filing shows Ray D'Alio's Bridgewater cutting its stake in Tesla. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest was regularly top-slicing her firm's stake in Tesla recently. CNBC also reported yesterday that hedge fund Greenlight Capital had made a bearish bet on Tesla shares. Greenlight, according to the report, has been a long time Tesla bear. Apart from those snippets though, macroeconomic factors are the main driver of the Tesla stock price currently. Electric vehicle stocks have not been a strong sector so far in 2022 as growth, in general, is out of favor with investors. This has led to steep falls in other names such as Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID). Both are at a much earlier stage of development than Tesla (TSLA) and on that basis, we would favor Tesla (TSLA) over them. But we must stress we would ideally avoid the sector entirely until perhaps the second quarter. Once markets have adjusted to the prospect of higher rates, some high-growth stocks may benefit. historical in a Fed (https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed) hiking cycle the main indices do advance but growth sectors struggle. Rivian so far is down 36% year to date, Lucid is down 24% while Tesla is the outperformer, down 12% for 2022. Tesla Stock Forecast We remain in the chop zone between the two key levels of $945 and $886. Breaking $945 should lead to a move toward $1,063. That would still be consistent with the longer-term bearish trend. Nothing goes down or up in a straight line. TSLA is unlikely to be able to fight the current overpowering macroeconomic backdrop of rising rates (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/rates) hitting high growth stocks. But breaking $945 is still significant in the short term and should see some fresh momentum. While $886 is significant, the 200-day moving average at $826 should have our real attention on the downside. Tesla has not closed below this level in over 6 months, so that would be significant and again lead to a fresh influx of momentum. Just this time though, it would be selling momentum. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily Short-term swing traders should note the volume momentum behind moves. Once volume dries up, Tesla tends to fall off intraday. From the 15-minute chart below, we have an opening gap from Tuesday down to $880. This is short-term support, but a break will see the bottom of Monday's range at $840 tested. Tesla (TSLA) 15-minute chart

  The Natural Gas flight has passed its first goal and is on its way to the second target. Here is a map showing the route to Natgas’ new destination. In today’s edition, I will provide some updates on recent market developments for Natural Gas futures (NGF22) following my last projections published on Friday, Feb. 11, for which the stop was also updated on Wednesday. Trade Plan We all love it when a trade plan comes together! The market has to cope with stronger demand to fuel increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Therefore, you can see that the rebounding floor (support) provided was ideal for the Henry Hub, which is also supported by unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to turn its momentum back up. The recommended objective of $4.442 was almost hit yesterday. However, it was achieved this morning (during the European session) and the $4.818 level is now the next goal. As I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, my recommended stop, which was located just below the $ 3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), was recently lifted up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven). Now it could be lifted one more time up to 4.180, which corresponds to the 50% distance between the initial entry and target 1. By doing so, the second half of the trade would become optimally managed. Alternatively, you can also use an Average True Range (ATR) multiple to determine a different level (above breakeven) that may better suit your trading style. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned levels of our trade plan: DHenry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) That’s all folks for today. Happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Bitcoin ended Wednesday with symbolic gains, gaining 0.1% to stay around $44,100. Ethereum rose 1.4%, and the other leading altcoins in the top ten also showed mostly upward momentum, from 0.3% (Binance Coin) to 5.5% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.9% over the day, to $2.09 trillion. Altcoins were in high demand, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 40.1%. The Fear and Greed Index rose another 1 point to 52 (neutral). For the second time this month, Bitcoin's growth is interrupted by attempts to gain a foothold above $45,000. In the event of a pullback, traders should monitor the dynamics near 42,000, where Bitcoin found support at the beginning of the week. Consolidation between 42,000 and 45,000 can be regarded as a positive signal, as it will consolidate confidence that the downtrend of recent months will not resume after a pause. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched an audit of the US representative office of the Binance crypto exchange. The Canadian authorities intend to track transactions in cryptocurrencies and block bank accounts in order to cut off funding for the Freedom Convoy truckers' protest movement. Twitter has added support for Ethereum addresses to the money transfer service within its application. The Bank of Russia plans to start the second stage of testing the cryptoruble in autumn. On Thursday morning, the markets and bitcoin experienced a downward momentum due to news of shelling in Ukraine. Cryptocurrencies reacted impulsively as a risk asset, but last week's example shows that they can also act as safe havens, as some investors may try to save capital using Bitcoin, Ethereum and a number of other large altcoins.

Bitcoin collapsed on Thursday, the most in almost a month amid sales of risky assets. BTC lost 7.7%, ending the day near $40,700. Ethereum fell 7.7%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten also fell, from 5.4% (Binance Coin) to 8.5% (Terra). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, sank by 7.3%, to $1.94 trillion. Bitcoin sold more actively than altcoins, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 39.8%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index plummeted 22 points to 30, returning to a state of fear. Bitcoin has clearly lost its function as a defensive asset lately, showing almost no correlation with gold, which was in high demand on Wednesday and Thursday. The technical picture looks bearish in the short term. Bitcoin did not hold above the 50-day average and fell under previous local lows. It is quite possible that from the end of January to mid-February, we saw a pullback after the momentum of the decline, and now a new step down is being formed. JPMorgan Bank indicated that crypto assets would be negatively affected by tightening US monetary policy. This approach puts crypto on a par with growth companies, which have also come under increased pressure amid rising market interest rates in recent weeks. Charles Munger, an associate of legendary investor Warren Buffett, likened cryptocurrencies to a "venereal disease" and praised China for banning them. According to him, cryptocurrencies are used by hackers, criminals, as well as those who evade taxes.

Thanks to Fed minutes, the S&P 500 closed modestly up, but could have taken the stronger credit markets cue. Instead, the upswing was sold into – the selling pressure is there, and neither value nor tech took the opportunity to rise, even against the backdrop of a weakening dollar. That‘s quite telling – the stock market correction hasn‘t run its course yet, and whatever progress the bulls make, is being countered convincingly. Precious metals adored the combo of yields and dollar turning down – and reacted with the miners‘ outperformance. The silver to copper ratio is basing, and the white metal looks to have better short-term prospects than the red one. Still in the headline sensitive environment we‘re in, gold would be stronger than silver until inflation is recognized for what it is. If there‘s one thing that the aftermath of Fed minutes showed, it‘s that the commodities superbull is alive and well, and that precious metals likewise are acting very positively in this tightening cycle. Suffice to say that gold has a track record of turning up once the rate hikes finally start… Excellent, the portfolio is positioned accordingly. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rebound is getting suspect, and should stocks close on a weak note today, it‘s clear that today‘s wobbling Philly Fed Manufacturing Index won‘t be balanced out by the succession of Fed speakers – the signs of real economy headwinds are here. Credit Markets HYG upswing could have had broader repercussions, and it‘s quite telling it didn‘t. The risk-on turn would likely be sold into, with consequences. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals suffered a temporary setback only indeed – I‘m looking for the gains to continue as the miners outperformance just can‘t be overlooked. Crude Oil Crude oil dipped some more, and the dip was again bought. Given the late session wavering, I‘m looking for some more sideways and volatile trading ahead before the upswing reasserts itself. Copper Copper continues trading sideways, but with bullish undertones. More consolidation before another upswing attempt is probable. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning down, but still haven‘t broken either way out of the current range. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are sending a message of caution. Summary S&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems increasingly slipping away given that the buyers couldn‘t defend gains after Fed minutes release. The upturn in credit markets is likely to prove of fleeting shelf life, and would exert downward pressure upon stocks. As I wrote yesterday (and talked extensively within today‘s article chart captions), the commodities bull is likely to carry on with little interference – and so would the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing, and the beginning of rate hikes would mark further headwinds for the real economy at a time of persistent inflation that could be perhaps brought down to 4-5% official rate late this year (which would leave the mainstream wondering why it just isn‘t transitory somewhat more – what an irony). The Fed‘s tools to be employed are simply insufficient to break the inflation‘s back, that‘s it. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

AUDUSD attempts to break out The Australian dollar finds support from a low jobless rate in January. The pair has previously hit resistance in the supply zone around 0.7250. This is a daily resistance from the sell-off in late January. Then a recovery above 0.7180 suggests solid buying pressure before a bearish mood could take hold again. A break above the key hurdle could initiate a bullish reversal above this year’s peak (0.7310). Otherwise, a prolonged consolidation may test the demand area between 0.7100 and 0.7150. NZDUSD tests resistance The New Zealand dollar climbed higher as the RBNZ can lift its cash rates next week. Price action came under pressure on the 30-day moving average (0.6730). However, strong support at 0.6590 builds a case for a potential reversal. A break above 0.6690 is an encouraging sign leaving 0.6730 as the last obstacle before a bullish extension. A broader rally would bring the kiwi back to January’s high at 0.6890. In the meantime, an overbought RSI caused a brief pullback towards 0.6660. SPX 500 consolidates The S&P 500 struggles as the Russia-Ukraine crisis persists. The previous rebound has met stiff selling pressure over the 30-day moving average (4590). A pullback has sent the RSI into the oversold territory, triggering some buyers’ interest in racking up the bargain. The rebound is still valid as long as the index stays above the critical area of 4280. A break above 4480 may extend gains to the double top at 4590 which is an important resistance. 4360 is the immediate support if the sideways action lingers.

  Gold prices declined in 2021 and the prospects for 2022 are not impressive as well. However, the yellow metal’s strategic relevance remains high. Last month, the World Gold Council published two interesting reports about gold. The first one is the latest edition of Gold Demand Trends, which summarizes the entire last year. Gold supply decreased 1%, while gold demand rose 10% in 2021. Despite these trends, the price of gold declined by around 4%, which – for me – undermines the validity of the data presented by the WGC. I mean here that the relevance of some categories of gold demand (jewelry demand, technological demand, the central bank’s purchases) for the price formation is somewhat limited. The most important driver for gold prices is investment demand. Unsurprisingly, this category plunged 43% in 2021, driven by large ETF outlfows. According to the report, “gold drew direction chiefly from inflation and interest rate expectations in 2021,” although it seems that rising rates outweighed inflationary concerns. As the chart below shows, the interest rates increased significantly last year. For example, 10-year Treasury yields rose 60 basis points. As a result, the opportunity costs for holding gold moved up, triggering an outflow of gold holdings from the ETF. As the rise in interest rates is likely to continue in 2022 because of the hawkish stance of the Fed, gold investment may struggle this year as well. The end of quantitative easing and the start of quantitative tightening may add to the downward pressure on gold prices. However, there are some bullish caveats here. First, gold has remained resilient in January, despite the hawkish FOMC meeting. Second, the Fed’s tightening cycle could be detrimental to the US stock market and the overall, highly indebted economy, which could be supportive of gold prices. Third, as the report points out, “gold has historically outperformed in the months following the onset of a US Fed tightening cycle”. The second publication released by the WGC last month was “The Relevance of Gold as a Strategic Asset 2022”. The main thesis of the report is that gold is a strategic asset, complementary to equities and bonds, that enhances investment portfolios’ performance. This is because gold is “a store of wealth and a hedge against systemic risk, currency depreciation, and inflation.” It is also “highly liquid, no one’s liability, carries no credit risk, and is scarce, historically preserving its value over time.” Gold is believed to be a great source of return, as its price has increased by an average of nearly 11% per year since 1971, according to the WGC. Gold can also provide liquidity, as the gold market is highly liquid. As the report points out, “physical gold holdings by investors and central banks are worth approximately $4.9 trillion, with an additional $1.2 trillion in open interest through derivatives traded on exchanges or the over-the-counter (OTC) market.” Last but not least, gold is an excellent portfolio diversifier, as it is negatively correlated with risk assets, and – importantly – this negative correlation increases as these assets sell off. Hence, adding gold to a portfolio could diversify it, improving its risk-adjusted return, and also provide liquidity to meet liabilities in times of market stress. The WGC’s analysis suggests that investors should consider adding between 4% and 15% of gold to the portfolio, but personally, I would cap this share at 10%.   Implications for Gold What do the recent WGC reports imply for the gold market? Well, one thing is that adding some gold to the investment portfolio would probably be a smart move. After all, gold serves the role of both a safe-haven asset and an insurance against tail risks. It’s nice to be insured. However, investing in gold is something different, as gold may be either in a bullish or bearish trend. You should never confuse these two motives behind owning gold! Sometimes it’s good to own gold for both insurance and investment reasons, but not always. When it comes to 2022, investment demand for gold may continue to be under downward pressure amid rising interest rates. However, there are also some bullish forces at work, which could intensify later this year. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Bitcoin price gets caught in a bearish triangle as tensions in Ukraine flare up again. Ethereum price returns to pivotal support, money repatriation goes into the second day. XRP price in pennant ready for a bearish breakout under the current sentiment. Cryptocurrencies are on the back foot as investors are getting worried about the escalating situation between Ukraine and Russia, as more reports come in from shots in the Donbas region near Luhansk. As the situation does not seem to de-escalate, investors are pulling their money out of what was believed to be the start of a solid and longer-term relief rally that is stalling at the moment. With more downside pressure to come, expect all significant cryptocurrencies to fall back to supportive pivotal levels. Bitcoin price falls into a bearish triangle, set to dip back below $40,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price is getting battered on Thursday after a fade on Wednesday that could still be attributed to some short-term profit-taking. The extension of the falls seems to confirm that sentiment is yet again dipping below zero towards risk-off. Investors pulling out their funds preemptively is reflected with the sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index, where the sell-side demand is outpacing the buy-side demand. In this context, Bitcoin price will remain under pressure for the rest of the week and could be set to slip below $40,000 in the coming days as the situation in Ukraine is set to deteriorate again, potentially inflicting further damage to the market mood. BTC price sees bulls unable to hold price action above $44,088 and in the process is forming a descending trend line that, together with the base at $41,756, is forming a bearish triangle. Expect Bitcoin valuation to decline further as the tensions around Luhansk increase by the hour. Once the $41,756 support is broken, the road is open for a nosedive towards $39,780 with the $40,000 psychological level broken yet again to the downside. BTC/USD daily chart A hail mary could be provided by the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $42,340, which already provided support on February 9 and February 15. With that move, a sudden breakthrough in the peace talks could become the needed catalyst to improve the situation and dislocate Bitcoin price action from the drag of the geopolitical news that is weighing. Bitcoin would see the demand on the buy-side blow up and see a big pop above $44,088. Ethereum bulls are breaking their jaws on the 55-day SMA as the price fades further Ethereum (ETH) price is getting crushed against the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,143, with bulls unfit to push and try to close price action above it. After three failed attempts in a row, it is becoming clear that the bullish support is wearing thin as, on Tuesday, the daily candle closed above there, and even if the next day ETH price opened above again, it closed below the 55-day SMA. On Wednesday, finally, both the open and the closing price were below the 55-day SMA. This proves that sentiment has shifted in just three trading days and looks set to fade further away from the 55-day SMA on Friday. Expect going forward in the next coming hours that bulls will get squeezed against the wall at $3,018 with both a pivotal level and the $3,000 marker a few dollars below there. As tensions mount, expect some more negative headlines, a breach in defense of the bulls with even the monthly pivot at $2,929 getting involved in the crosshairs. Depending on the severity and the further deterioration of the political situation in Ukraine and the correction in the stock markets, it is possible to see a nosedive towards $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart Global market sentiment is hanging on the lips of Ukraine and the geopolitical situation. With that, it is clear that once the situation gets resolved or de-escalates, markets can shift 180 degrees in a matter of seconds. That same rule applies to cryptocurrencies where Ethereum could pop back above the 55-day SMA and even set sail for $3,391, breaking the high of February and flirting with new highs for 2022. Bulls joining the rally will want to keep a close eye and be mindful of the RSI, as that would start to flirt with being overbought and, from there on, limiting any further big moves in the hours or next trading days to come. Ethereum short squeeze could trigger a spike to $4,000 XRP price set to lose 10% of market value as headline news breaks down relief rally Ripple (XRP) price is stuck in a pennant and is close to a breakout that looks set to be a bearish one. As global markets are continuing the fade from Wednesday, XRP price is breaking below the recent low and sees bears hammering down on the ascending side of the pennant. As more negative headlines cross the wires, expect this to add ammunition for bears to continue and start breaking the pennant to the downside. XRP price will look for support on the next support at hand, which comes in at $0.78, and depending on the severity of the news flow, that level should hold again as it did on February 14. If that is not the caseany further downside will be cut short by the double bottom around $0.75 from February 12 and 13 and the 55-day SMA coming in at or around that area. With that move, the RSI will be triggering some "oversold" red flags and see bears booking profit. XRP/USD daily chart A false bearish breakout could easily see bears trapped on entering on the break to the downside out of the pennant as bulls go in for the squeeze. That would mean that price shoots up towards $0.88 and takes out this week's high. Bears would be forced to change sides and join the buy-side demand to close their losing positions, adding to even more demand and possibly hitting $0.90 in the process. XRP set to explode towards $1.00, bulls hopeful over SEC vs Ripple case

As the global markets move away from recent concerns of war and Fed rate hikes, I believe both Small and Mid Cap indexes are uniquely positioned to potentially surge 7% to 11%, or more, from recent lows. My analysis suggests both the Small and Mid Cap Indexes may have moved excessively lower over the past 30+ trading days. They may be poised for a unique opportunity and a substantial price rally if the global markets continue to move away from extreme risk events. As the US Fed and global central banks position to combat inflation while war tensions build near Ukraine, I believe the US Small and Mid Cap Indexes are uniquely undervalued and ready for a potential move higher. The recent recovery in the US major indexes may be evidence of strong bullish price momentum underlying the US Major Indexes. I believe that foreign capital is moving into various US assets to avoid foreign market/currency risks. The US Small and Mid Cap Indexes seem like perfect opportunities for this capital deployment. IWM May Rally 12 to 14% - Targeting $238 to $240 This Weekly IWM chart highlights a support level near $191.00 and a recent Three River Morning Star bottom reversal pattern near $194.40. It also highlights the previous range-based trading and dual Pennant/Flag setups using shaded BLUE and YELLOW Rectangles. I believe IWM has a solid potential to rally back to near the $220 level before finding resistance (+7.25%). If this bullish price momentum continues, IWM may rally to levels above $238 to $240. The global markets may have recently focused too much on the US Fed and Global Central Banks while missing the underlying strength of the US economy. Consumers are still spending, and the US Fed has yet to make any substantial adjustments to rates or balance sheets. These recent lows may provide an excellent opportunity for traders to capitalize on a “reversion price move” soon. The only way to navigate and capitalize on these price swings is to stay focused on Technical Analysis and strategic opportunities for trades when they occur. WHAT TRADING STRATEGIES WILL HELP YOU TO NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, setups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture. We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.” Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting. WARNING: More Downside To Come Uncertainty abounds regarding the path of inflation and new FED policy. This has created a landscape of continued strong periods of distribution in the equity markets. If there are any bounces, they should be used to sell ‘risk assets’. This has been one of the worst starts to a calendar year in the history of the stock and bond markets. Chart Source: Zero Hedge Last Thursday, the reported inflation rate increased by 7.7 percent, the highest in forty years. Stocks tumble as red-hot inflation print pressures technology shares. Markets didn’t like this, which immediately moved them down. Bears are in control of the market, which can be observed from Friday’s trading session. The U.S. 10-year yield rose above 2% for the first time since August 2019 amid a broad Treasury-market selloff. It was driven by expectations for quicker FED interest-rate hikes to contain faster than predicted inflation. It takes at least two to three years to have any material impact on the economy. One sector is currently doing well, which is the oil sector. Cycle's analysis is applied to find the best stocks to invest in and the best sectors. The next sector we are monitoring is Gold/Silver. Crude oil prices are staying strong. There are a lot of geopolitical factors in play here. I think there's a risk premium on oil right now because of Russia. What The Heck is CPI? The Consumer Price Index, CPI, is the measure of changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. This is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation in households. Consumer Price Index Summary. Last Thursday, the inflation figures were released, confirming that everything is getting more expensive. It is up 7.5 percent versus last year. Mortgage rates are starting to rise. If you plan to buy a new home, this is the time to do it. These historically low interest rates will not last long. Should I Invest In Gold Today? Owning gold acts as a hedge against inflation as well as a good portfolio diversifier as it is a great store of value. Gold also provides financial cover during geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases. Conclusion: It seems the stock market may be on its last leg here. Big money flow has been coming out of the large-cap stocks while commodities have been rising. Commodities are typically one of the last assets to rally before the stock market top and start a bear market. I see all the signs, but we must wait for the price to confirm before taking action. We have seen this setup before in 2015/2016, also in 2018, and the market recovered and rallied dramatically from those levels.  What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

I've been paying close attention to Bonds as the global markets react to rising inflation and global central bank moves recently. The US Federal Reserve has yet to take any actions to raise rates, but we all know it will come at some point. Longer-term bonds are acting as if these risks are much more subdued than many traders/investors believe – which has me questioning if global central banks have overplayed the stimulus game? Why would traditional safe-haven assets fail to act in a manner that reflects current market risks like they would typically do? Why have precious metals failed to reflect these risks also properly? Is there something brewing in traders' minds that are muting or mitigating these traditional safe-haven assets? Bonds Continue To Slide After COVID Rally This table, reflecting the recent downward trend in Bonds, highlights the weakened safe-haven tendencies. These assets would generally present with rampant inflation and the possibility of multiple Fed rate increases. (Source: SeekingAlpha.com) Increasing uncertainty throughout the globe, and as inflation climbs to the highest levels since the mid-1970s and 1980s, – “where's the beef?” (to reference a 1980s Wendy's commercial phrase). This TLT Weekly chart shows how risks climbed when COVID hit in February 2020. Yet, take a look at how price has consolidated below $156 and has continued to trend lower over the past six months. After a brief move higher, to levels near the $147 to $155 level, TLT has moved decidedly lower over the past 6+ months. This downward price trend illustrates the diminishing fear levels as traders piled into the post-COVID rally phase. This move suggests traders believe inflation may be temporary or that the US Federal Reserve has room to raise rates without disrupting the global economy. I think the current premise and price trend in TLT vastly underestimates the amount of disruption a series of Fed rate hikes would cause the international markets. The US Federal Reserve will likely consider all options before taking an aggressive move to raise rates. Additionally, the US Fed may decide to allow foreign central banks to move more aggressively to raise rates while it decides to take a more measured approach to inflation. The key to future rate increases is how supply chains open up and how consumers continue to engage in economic activities. Any sudden shift by consumers, or further disruptions in supply for manufacturing and consumer staples/discretionary items, could prompt the Fed into taking aggressive actions. From where the Fed Funds Rates currently are, a move above 0.50% would reflect a +500% rate increase. This may prompt some type of “pop” in certain asset bubbles. (Source: St. Louis Fed) Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and Bond levels throughout 2022 into 2023 as any sudden shift away from current trends could spell trouble. Right now, Bonds are pricing in minimal risks – which may be a mistake. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now, and bonds can’t keep up with inflation and are more or less yield-less. The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions. What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

  Gold and the USDX reacted vigorously to the worrisome news concerning Eastern Europe. However, only the latter can be calm about its medium-term future. As geopolitical tensions uplift gold, silver, and mining stocks, they’re in rally mode each time a doom-and-gloom headline surfaces. However, while the ‘will they or won’t they’ saga commands investors’ attention, the USD Index continues to behave rationally. For example, while volatility has increased recently, the dollar basket has held firm. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 17: The USD Index is at its medium-term support line. All previous moves to / slightly below it were then followed by rallies, sometimes really big rallies, so we’re likely to see something like that once again. Such a rally would be the prefect trigger for the triangle-vertex-based reversal in gold and the following slide. Please see below: Furthermore, the USD Index’s recent pullback was far from a surprise. For example, I highlighted on numerous occasions that the greenback is nearing its weekly rising resistance line, and the price action has unfolded as I expected. Moreover, while overbought conditions resulted in a short-term breather, history shows that the USD Index eventually catches its second wind. To explain, I previously wrote: I marked additional situations on the chart below with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. As a result, with the USD Index showcasing a reliable history of profound comebacks, higher highs should materialize over the medium term. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or those of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie, and with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. While very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98-101 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon). Mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone. The EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the financial markets remain on Russia-Ukraine watch. While gold, silver, mining stocks, and the USD Index whipsaw on the news, the technical and fundamental backdrops support higher prices for the latter, not the former. Thus, while geopolitical tensions are always short-term bullish for the precious metals, the rush is often short-lived. As a result, the trios’ downtrends that began in late 2020 will likely resurface once the headline-driven market returns to normal. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Not only won’t inflation end soon, it’s likely to remain high. Whether gold will be able to take advantage of it will depend, among others, on the Fed. Do you sometimes ask yourself when this will all end? I don’t mean the universe, nor our lives, nor even this year (c’mon, guys, it has just started!). I mean, of course, inflation. If only you weren’t in a coma last year, you would have probably noticed that prices had been surging recently. For instance, America finished the year with a shocking CPI annual rate of 7.1%, the highest since June 1982, as the chart below shows. Now, the key question is how much higher inflation could rise, or how persistent it could be. The consensus is that we will see a peak this year and subsequent cooling down, but to still elevated levels. This is the view I also hold. However, would I bet my collection of precious metals on it? I don’t know, as inflation could surprise us again, just as it did to most of the economists (but not me) last year. The risk is clearly to the upside. As always in economics, it’s a matter of supply and demand. There is even a joke that all you need to turn a parrot into an economist is to teach it to say ‘supply’ and ‘demand’. Funny, huh? When it comes to the demand side, both the money supply growth and the evolution of personal saving rate implies some cooling down of inflation rate. Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, the broad money supply peaked in February 2021. Assuming a one-year lag between the money supply and price level, inflation rate should reach its peak somewhere in the first quarter of this year. There is one important caveat here: the pace of money supply growth has not returned to the pre-pandemic level, but it stabilized at about 13%, double the rate seen at the end of 2019. Inflation was then more or less at the Fed’s target of 2%, so without constraining money supply growth, the US central bank couldn’t beat inflation. As the chart above also shows, the personal saving rate has returned to the pre-pandemic level of 7-8%. It means that the bulk of pent-up demand has already materialized, which should also help to ease inflation in the future. However, not all of the ‘forced savings’ have already entered the market. Thus, personal consumption expenditures are likely to be elevated for some time, contributing to boosted inflation. Regarding supply factors, although some bottlenecks have eased, the disruptions have not been fully resolved. The spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and regional lockdowns in China could prolong the imbalances between booming demand and constrained supply. Other contributors to high inflation are rising producer prices, increasing house prices and rents, strong inflation expectations (see the chart below), and labor shortages combined with fast wage growth. The bottom line is that, all things considered – in particular high level of demand, continued supply issues, and de-anchored inflation expectations – I forecast another year of elevated inflation, but probably not as high as in 2021. After reaching a peak in a few months, the inflation rate could ease to, let’s say, around 4% in December, if we are lucky. Importantly, the moderate bond yields also suggest that inflation will ease somewhat later in 2022. What does it mean for the gold market? Well, I don’t have good news for the gold bulls. Gold loves high and accelerating inflation the most. Indeed, as the chart below shows, gold peaks coincided historically with inflation heights. The most famous example is the inflation peak in early 1980, when gold ended its impressive rally and entered into a long bearish trend. The 2011 top also happened around the local inflationary peak. The only exception was the 2005 peak in inflation, when gold didn’t care and continued its bullish trend. However, this was partially possible thanks to the decline in the US dollar, which seems unlikely to repeat in the current macroeconomic environment, in which the Fed is clearly more hawkish than the ECB or other major central banks. The relatively strong greenback won’t help gold shine. Surely, disinflation may turn out to be transitory and inflation may increase again several months later. Lower inflation implies a less aggressive Fed, which should be supportive of gold prices. However, investors should remember that the US central bank will normalize its monetary policy no matter the inflation rate. Since the Great Recession, inflation has been moderate, but the Fed has tightened its stance eventually, nevertheless. Hence, gold may experience a harsh moment when inflation peaks. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

Even at the last important low (US$$1,750) on December 15th, 2021, the sentiment was still awful as the sector had become the most hated asset class. Now fast-forward, gold has been successfully breaking out of its multi month triangle and keeps sprinting higher. The bulls currently are bending the daily and weekly Bollinger Bands to the upside, and seasonality is still supportive.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Looking at the weekly chart, it appears that gold not only broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern, but also out of a large inverse head and shoulder pattern. It’s not a textbook head and shoulder, but worthwhile noting. A measured move projection could theoretically take gold towards US$2,125! However, the monthly Bollinger Band, sitting at around US$ 1,975, might be a much more realistic target for the ongoing move. As you might remember, the zone between US$1,950 to US$1,975 is very strong resistance. We would not rule out a short-lived overshoot towards US$,2000, though.Overall, the weekly chart is not yet overbought and looks bullish. Hence, the rally has very good chances to continue for a few more weeks.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.As expected, the breakout above US$1,840 to US$1,850 has unleashed enough energy to quickly push gold prices towards the round psychological number of US$1,900. Fortunately, the daily stochastic has transformed its overboughtness into the rare “embedded status”, where both signal lines are sitting above 80 for more than three days in a row. Hence, the uptrend is locked-in and shorting this market would be fighting the uptrend.Of course, given the uncertain and complex geopolitical situation, events can and likely will strongly influence gold over the coming days and weeks. Speaking from a technical point of you, any pullback towards the breakout zone around US$1,845 would be a buying opportunity. However, prices below US$1,875 would already be a surprise in the short-term. On the contrary, it’s much more likely that gold will continue its run to at least US$1,930 over the coming days.In summary, the daily chart is bullish. Especially the bullish embedded stochastic oscillator likely will not allow any larger pullback, but rather a consolidation around US$1,900. Watch those two signal lines. Only if one of them would be dropping below 80on a daily close, the bull run might be over!GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.GDX, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold & gold related mining stocks often stabilize your portfolio during uncertain times and do act as a hedge. While the stock market continued its dive due to the crisis in Ukraine and the potential interest rate turnaround in the US, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up more than 21.5% since its low in mid of December. Over the last two weeks, the leading gold mining stocks recorded some of their best days in the last 12 months. Last week, Barrick Gold ($GOLD) jumped up more than 7% due to good earnings, a dividend increase, and a new share repurchase program. Some smaller gold stocks like Sabina Gold & Silver ($SGSVF) went up even more (+15% Friday, 11th).Now that gold is on the rise, it’s time for the beaten down and undervalued mining stocks to catch up. Usually, it starts with the big senior produces like Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM) and Newmont Corporation ($NEM), then the juniors like for example Victoria Gold Corp. ($VITFF) join and finally, the explorer and developers literally explode higher.However, the GDX has nearly reached its downtrend line as well as the 38.2% retracement of the whole corrective wave since August 2020. Hence, the big miners are running into string resistance and might need to consolidate soon.At the same time, note, that silver has been lagging. Silver always lags most of the time, but in the final stage of sector wide rally it suddenly passes all the other metals and shots up nearly vertically. That also typically is the sign that the rally in the sector is coming to an end. Obviously, we have not yet seen any strong silver days. Therefore, silver actually confirms that the sector has more room and time to run higher!Conclusion: Bullish momentum remains strongOverall, gold continues to look promising here as the bullish momentum remains strong. Hence, Gold is probably on the way towards US$1,950 and US$1,975, with a slight chance for an overshot to US$2,000. But of course, given the rather overbought daily chart, the risk/reward is not that good anymore. Silver and many of the smaller mining stocks, however, might still offer a chance to play the ongoing rally over the next few weeks. Once gold tops out in spring, expect a big pullback. Maybe even back towards the higher trending 200-day moving average (currently at US$1,808) at some point in midsummer. But that is all somewhere in the future. For now, the bullish momentum remains strong.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 20th, 2022|Tags: $GDXJ, Barrick Gold, GDX, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, Newmont Corporation, precious metals, Reyna Gold, Sabina Gold & Silver, Silver, silver bull, US-Dollar, Victoria Gold|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

Last week, BTC repeated the dynamics of the first ten days of February. The rate strengthened on Monday-Tuesday, and on Wednesday, it exceeded the level of $44,800. Then on Thursday, the price began to fall sharply in unison with stock indices. The decrease in risky assets was caused by the growing tension around Ukraine, where the situation is becoming tenser. On Friday, Bitcoin continued to fall, briefly dropping below the round level of $40,000. This mark was broken on Sunday, and BTC tested the next support level at $38,000. The situation is aggravated by the increase in cryptocurrency sales by miners. As a result, the bears may try to push the price to $36,000 and even $33,000. Today, on hopes of a political de-escalation, BTCUSD is up 2.5%, trying to cling to levels above $39,000. I must say that bitcoin has lost all the growth of February over the past week. In addition to the upcoming Fed rate hike, BTC has been hit by growing geopolitical risks. In addition to this, the founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, noted that he sees early signs of the onset of crypto winter. This spurred crypto sales among retail investors over the weekend. However, ETHUSD is up 5.3% on Monday, recouping Sunday's decline and continuing to struggle to close the third month in the red. Overall, Bitcoin was down 9.2% over the past week, ending it at around $38,300. Ethereum lost 9.7%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also sank: from 3.3% (Avalanche) to 11% (Cardano). The total capitalization of the crypto market fell by 7% in a week, to $1.82 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell 0.7% to 40%, due to less weakening of altcoins. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index lost another 2 points to 25 on Monday, returning to the extreme fear territory.

GBPUSD tests resistance The sterling edged higher after January’s retail sales beat expectations. The recent pause has been an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate. A break above 1.3640 would signal solid buying after previous failed attempts. The daily resistance at 1.3750 would be the next hurdle. Its breach could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. 1.3560 is the immediate support. And 1.3490 at the lower end of the horizontal consolidation is the second line of defense in case the pair needs to attract more support. USDCAD awaits breakout The Canadian dollar tanked after disappointing retail sales in December. The US counterpart is still struggling below the supply zone around 1.2800. A close above this daily resistance could propel the pair to last December’s high at 1.2950, a prerequisite for a bullish continuation in the medium-term. The current sideways action is a sign of indecision. 1.2640 is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. A bearish breakout would bring the greenback to a previous low at 1.2560. EURJPY struggles for support The Japanese yen rallies amid growing risk aversion across the board. The euro continues to shed gains from the surge earlier this month. A fall below 131.90 triggered profit-taking, and the latest rally came out to be a dead cat bounce after it was capped by this support-turned-resistance. A break below 130.40 (which sits over the 30-day moving average) shows fragility in market sentiment and would cause another round of sell-off. 129.20 at the base of the bullish impetus would be the next support.

The geopolitical momentum of the escalation/truce situation around Ukraine strikingly has its weekly cycles. Harsh rhetoric seems to peak at the end of the week, followed by the weekend’s relief when the sides look for ways to negotiate, giving a breath of air to global markets early in the week. This week, the same pattern applies with demand for EM currencies and European indices returning to their starting positions before Friday’s collapse. The announced talks between the Russian and US foreign ministers and the chances of a summit between Biden and Putin bring back hopes of a peaceful resolution. However, it is worth realising that the situation remains fragile, and so far, with each new cycle of this momentum, the present situation has become more dramatic. And this is visible in the dynamics of the European indices, where the DAX formed a double top in January and in February began to churn in line with the geopolitical background, maintaining a downward bias and approaching a critical support level that has been in place since last May. The pressure on the DAX to consolidate under the 15,000 mark is occurring on two fronts at once. Firstly, geopolitical tensions are reducing the traction in risky assets of the European region. In addition, fears of energy supply disruptions in the EU due to Russia form the background, with high oil and gas prices holding back the economic recovery. Secondly, the monetary policy outlook continues to be reassessed. ECB officials are talking more and more confidently about a rate hike this year and leaving the door open for such a move as early as September. If the bears manage to push the DAX below the nine-month support, we might see an acceleration of the corrective pullback that could take the index down to 14000 within the next couple of weeks. If the politicians’ rhetoric doesn’t seem to be easing, the next target for a retracement might be the 13000-area, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the extremes of March 2020 and November 2021.

S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos did break down over the weekend, but the anticipated risk-on rebound fizzled out a bit too fast – as said on Friday, the bears have the upper hand now. Summary S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc surges as the US-Russia stalemate boosts demand for safe haven assets. Consecutive drops below 0.9220 and then 0.9180 suggest that sellers have taken control. The greenback is heading towards January’s double bottom around 0.9110. A break below this key floor would trigger a deeper correction towards the psychological level of 0.9000. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound. The support-turned-resistance at 0.9220 is the level to break to give the bulls any hope of recovery. XAGUSD bounces higher Bullion rallies over ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Silver gained momentum after a break above the supply zone at 23.90. A brief fallback found support over 23.10 which indicates solid buying interest. The price is grinding up along a rising trendline and sentiment remains upbeat as long as it stays above the congestion area near the trendline and 23.60. January’s peak at 24.70 is the target when volatility picks up again. A bullish breakout could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. UK 100 struggles for support The FTSE 100 tumbles as risk appetite slips across the board. The bulls’ latest effort to push beyond 7630 turned out to be futile. A break below 7500 suggests a lack of commitment and weighs on short-term sentiment. Intraday traders have switched sides and look to fade the next bounce towards the former support. A dip below 7430 has opened the door to 7330 as the next target. Further down, the daily support at 7240 would be a major level to keep the uptrend intact in the medium term.

Bitcoin, best in play   The Covid environment brought an additional variant risk factor to the table, especially when it comes to investor psychology. Our last weekly chart book publication made a case for positioning one’s risk hedge plays this year when equity markets most likely trade in a volatile sideways range. We also spoke of a proper wealth preservation strategy, holding both bitcoin and gold within a hedged risk reduction approach for your monies. With our primary focus on risk, the next question is allocation size between bitcoin and gold. As mentioned in the intro, it feels intuitively natural to have significant exposure to the gold side from a cycle history. Yet, insurance seems essential at this time, and as such, we tend to be a bit more aggressive towards bitcoin allocations. Bitcoin, daily chart, not just yet: Bitcoin, daily chart as of February 22nd, 2022. The daily chart reflects the common notion of bitcoin trading alongside PMI numbers and the market as a whole. With the recent break of the modest bounce from the US$33,500 level up leg (yellow up-channel), no immediate low-risk entries for longer-term exposure seems in play.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, great setup, bitcoin, best in play: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Nevertheless, we find now zooming out to the weekly time frame a quite interesting entry zone (white box) between the levels US$30,000 to US$34,000. We identified by stacking multiple edges that an entry near US$31,800 would provide the most low-risk entry profile. However, it will depend on how prices will arrive at these levels. As such, we encourage you to check back in our free Telegram channel.  There we post-entries, and exits for educational purposes in real-time. Bitcoin, monthly chart, amazing potential: Bitcoin, monthly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Where matters become more transparent, and our headlines supported, is at a view of the monthly chart. The first leg up was nothing short of a 1,600% advancement. Now we have been trading for a year in a bullish up sloping sideways channel. With a possible entry at the lows of this channel, a long-term investment provides for a stellar risk/reward-ratio. The second legs are typically longer than the first legs! But that is not all; bitcoin has a higher probability of four-leg moves versus three-leg moves. Consequently, this trade could turn out to be highly profitable after some time. One aspect of risk is the relationship between the size of a potential down move of price and the size of a likely up move. We find bitcoins’ upward potential much more significant than gold for its fundamental characteristics and stellar outperforming history percentagewise. Bitcoin, best in play: Summing it up, bitcoin might not be at its lowest retracement levels yet. Still, its powerful potential in risk/reward-ratio and as an overall risk hedge makes it best in play. We share a low-risk cost averaging in strategy in our free Telegram channel. We find that allocation of funds should be more dominant towards bitcoin. In addition, holding some cash as much as money is deflating can still be a good strategy. Cash is king to purchase desired goods and vehicles, especially when those are even more depressed.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin correction, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, NASDAQ, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments

S&P 500 is waking up to fresh European news, and holds up well. There is no panic upswing in gold and silver, but crude oil and natural gas are up the most. As the U.S. markets are to open following yesterday‘s Washington‘s Birthday holiday, let‘s bring up the key details of yesterday‘s analysis: (…) S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. What a long quote – let‘s update it with the premarket action. S&P 500 is still waiting with its potential upsing, dollar has gone nowhere really, and precious metals look like having a bright day today. The crude oil upswing shows that markets don‘t like the geopolitical news, and are likely to behave in a risk-off way of late (Treasuries, gold and oil up benefiting most). The internals of today‘s stock market action would be telling – I recently got an interesting question touching also upon rates and real estate: Q: I read your most recent newsletter with great interest: 1. You think the Fed would start to ease this fall? In your opinion, how long would that last?  Midterm would be done soon there after so would it be a quick few months then revert back to higher rates? 2. I’m asking question #1 as it would impact real estate. 3. You anticipate a “temporary” rise in the S&P this week? Are you thinking just a few days? I noticed 10 yr is going down. A: Thank you for asking. I'll take 1 & 2 in one go - I think they would change course latest autumn. So, now hawkish and raising, then turning to easing before midterms. Let's see first the damage this tightening does, and the degree to which they then turn dovish. As regards real estate, it's slowing down, homebuilders, XLRE... Headwinds would be stiffening, rates are eating into mortgages, but those ZIP codes where immigration into is high, would do best - but the overall, total real estate isn't an appealing proposition. When markets open, there is likely to be a little SPX rally off oversold readings. Sure, they can get more oversold - that's the way it goes during bearish episodes, which is why I'm not long. The trend for now is to the downside, so I would keep predominantly looking and taking opportunities to short. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos stopped breaking down today, and the price action smacks of joining in the modest risk-on upswing, as unbelievable as it sounds. Summary Yesterday‘s summary is valid also today – S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

EURUSD bounces off support The euro surged over signs that Moscow may remain open to diplomacy. The pair found support at the base of the previous rally (1.1290), indicating the bulls’ commitment to keeping the rebound intact. The RSI’s oversold situation attracted a slew of bargain hunters betting on a lengthy rebound. A break above 1.1390 would prompt sellers to cover and pave the way for a sustained recovery. The recent peak and daily resistance at 1.1490 is a major hurdle. Its breach could extend the rally to 1.1600. EURGBP attempts reversal The sterling whipsawed after BOE officials’ comment about a “modest” rate hike over the coming months. The euro saw strong bids at the base of the February breakout rally (0.8310). A break above 0.8370 wiped out some selling interest, a prerequisite for a meaningful recovery. 0.8400 is the next resistance and its breach would further boost buyers’ confidence and propel the single currency to the recent high at 0.8475. On the downside, a bearish breakout would invalidate the rebound pattern and cause a sell-off below 0.8280. GER 40 breaks floor Trepid sentiment continues to weigh on the Dax. The plunge below the 9-month long consolidation area (14850) may foreshadow a bear market. As traders grew wary, trapped bulls would look to get out of their positions while the bears saw any rebound as an opportunity to sell into strength. An oversold RSI brought in some bids and 14850 is the immediate resistance. However, the index would remain under unless it lifts offers around 15200. Otherwise, the psychological level of 14000 would be the next stop.

S&P 500 had a wild swings day, and didn‘t rise convincingly – credit markets didn‘t move correspondingly either. The upswing looks postponed unless fresh signs of broad weakness arrive. Yesterday‘s session didn‘t tell much either way – the countdown to the upswing materializing, is on even though tech didn‘t take advantage of higher bond prices. That can still come.VIX though reversed to the downside, and the relatively calmer session we‘re likely going to experience today, would be consistent with a modest attempt for stocks to move higher. I‘m though not looking for a monstrous rally, even though we‘re trading closer to the lower end of the wide S&P 500 range for this year than to its upper border. The 4,280s are so far holding but as the Mar FOMC approaches, we‘re likely to see a fresh turn south in the 500-strong index. For now, the talk of raising rates is on the back burner – Europe is in the spotlight.Note that the flight to safety on rising tensions (Treasuries, gold and oil up) didn‘t benefit the dollar. Coupled with the yields reprieve, that makes for further precious metals gains – the bull run won‘t be toppled if soothing news arrives. Likewise crude oil isn‘t going to tank below $90, and remain there. Commodities can be counted on to keep running – led by energy and agrifoods, with base metals (offering a helping hand to silver) in tow. As I wrote weeks ago, this is where the real gains are to be found.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume moved a little up, meaning the buying interest is still there – convincing signs of a trend change are though yet not apparent. Should prices prove to have trouble breaking lower over the next 1-2 days, this could still turn out a good place for a little long positon.Credit MarketsHYG continues basing, and keeps trading in a risk-off fashion, which is why I can‘t be wildly bullish stocks for now. Stock market gains are likely to remain subdued, noticeably subdued – as a bare minimum for today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, but a little reprieve is developing – nothing though that would break the bull. The run is only starting, and would continue through the rate raising cycle.Crude OilCrude oil is fairly well bid, and doesn‘t appear to be really dipping any time soon. Oil stocks are preparing for an upswing, and would remain one of the best performing S&P 500 sectors. Tripple digit oil is a question of time.CopperCopper‘s moment in the spotlight is approaching as commodities keeps pushing higher, and base metals are breaking up. All of these factors are inflationary.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to move up today, and further gains are likely. I‘m though looking for the 50-day moving average in Bitcoin (corresponding roughly to the mid Feb lows in Ethereum) to prove an obstacle.SummaryS&P 500 didn‘t break to new lows overnight, and appears to be picking up somewhat today. The anticipated rebound might materialize later today, and would require bond participation to be credible. I‘m not looking for sharp gains within this upswing though – the correction looks very much to have further to run. It‘s commodities and precious metals where the largest gains are to be made, with the European tensions taking the focus off inflation (momentarily). The pressure on the Fed to act decisively, is though still on as various credit spreads tell – and the same goes for the compressed yield curve speaking volumes about the (precarious) state of the real economy.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Stocks were volatile yesterday and the broad stock market fell by another 1%. Was it a final decline or just another leg within a downtrend? The S&P 500 index lost 1.01% on Tuesday, Feb. 22, as it extended its last week’s Thursday’s-Friday’s sell-off. The daily low was at 4,267.11, and the market closed slightly above the 4,300 mark. We’ve seen a lot of volatility following the U.S. President Biden’s speech on Russia-Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.7% higher. We may see more volatility, however it looks like a short-term bottoming pattern. The nearest important resistance level is at 4,350-4,400, marked by the recent local low and some previous support levels. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,250-4,300, among others. The S&P 500 index trades within its late January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It extended the downtrend on Monday, but it managed to stay slightly above its late January local lows. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation. It may be a bottoming pattern before an upward correction. Yesterday, we decided to open a speculative long position before the opening of the cash market. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index went below the 4,300 level yesterday, as investors reacted to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis news. The market may be trading within a short-term consolidation and we may see an attempt at reversing the downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely bounce or fluctuate following its late last week’s sell-off We are maintaining our yesterday’s long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  The Natural Gas flight just landed after hitting its second and last target yesterday. The perfect trade does not exist, but this one has been developing pretty well following our flying map. In today’s edition, I will provide a trade review for Natural Gas futures (NGH22) following my last projections published on Friday Feb-11, for which the stop was also updated last Wednesday and trailed again last Thursday. Trade Plan Just to remember, our initial plan was relying on a gas market having to cope with stronger demand to fuel and increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Hence, the projected rebounding floor (or support level) provided, which was ideal for the Henry Hub given the unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), providing a catapulting upward momentum. Then, it took a few days for the first suggested objective at $4.442 to be passed, and a few extra days for the second target located at the $4.818 level to be hit (as it was yesterday). Meanwhile, as I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, our subscribers were kindly and promptly invited to place their initial stop just below the $3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), before receiving a couple of trading alerts suggesting they manually trail it up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven), then one more time up towards 4.180 (which corresponds to the 50% distance between initial entry and target 1), and finally to be lifted up to 4.368 optimally. Consequently, after a reconnaissance mission got close enough to target number 2, the Nat-Gas flight started running out of kerosene after passing through the first target like a fighter jet would break the sound barrier. Therefore, after getting refueled at a lower altitude (just above our highest elevation trailing stop) by a refuelling aircraft, the jet was finally ready to point and lock its last target before striking it. Here is a picture-by-picture record of that trade. First step: flight preparation on carrier ship Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Second step: prices catapulted and stop lifted at breakeven once the mid-point target was reached Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Third step: target one hit and stop dragged up Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to target one (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fourth step: mission reconnaissance to target two and refueling aircraft en route to refill the jet tank (stop trailing again) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to lock final target (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fifth step: final strike to target two Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom one more time into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned steps of our flying map: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) As you may observe, target one is now serving as a new landing space (support) for a new ranging market cycle. That’s all, folks, for today. I hope that you enjoyed the flight with our company! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  The war has begun: after a few weeks of tense situation, Russia has taken a radical step and started an invasion of Ukraine. How will this affect gold? Boy, ! The Russia-Ukraine conflict is intensifying swiftly. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the recognition of two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk regions). The decree also included an order to send Russian troops there as “peacekeeping forces”. In response, Ukraine declared a state of emergency, while the EU banned purchases of Russian government bonds and imposed sanctions on most members of the Russian parliament. Germany froze approvals for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. American President Joe Biden also released the first tranche of sanctions against Russia, targeted mainly at banks and sovereign debt, and promised further moves: Today, I am announcing the first tranche of sanctions to impose a cost on Russia in response to their actions yesterday. We’ll continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates. We are implementing full blocking sanctions on two large Russian financial institutions VEB and military bank. We are implementing comprehensive sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt. That means we’ve cut off Russia’s government from Western financing. Starting tomorrow, we’ll also impose sanctions on Russia’s elites and family members. Putin wasn’t apparently impressed by these sanctions, as he authorized a military operation in eastern Ukraine early Thursday. The invasion has started. Indeed, there are reports of Russian troops crossing the Ukrainian border in multiple locations, and of explosions in many of the country’s cities, including the capital, Kyiv. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted that: Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes. This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now.   Implications for Gold What does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, risk aversion has soared amid the conflict. Equities are plunging while safe-haven assets are soaring. This, of course, applies also to gold, which rallied to $1,905 on Wednesday, the highest level since January 2021, as the chart below shows. In response to the invasion, the price of the yellow metal continued its upward trend, soaring to $1,945 on early Thursday, as one can see in the chart below. The move was perfectly in line with what I wrote on Tuesday: “if Russia invades Ukraine, the yellow metal should gain further.” Now, the question is: what next? I’m not a military expert, so I have no idea how the conflict will end. However, I know three things. The first is that the conflict will last some time. During the escalation period, gold prices will be driven up by risk aversion and safe-haven demand. Second, the conflict will start to de-escalate and end at some point. Then, we could see a correction in the gold market. Having said that, the yellow metal doesn’t have to immediately return to the pre-conflict level, as it could be supported by other factors, such as worries about inflation, and generally a rather bullish momentum. My point is that geopolitical events usually exert only a short-lived impact on gold, as they don’t affect the true fundamentals of the gold market. These will be shaped by the inflation path and the Fed’s reaction to it. Third, the upcoming weeks could be hot for the gold market. Don’t let emotions affect your investments. Remember the initial stage of the coronavirus pandemic? We all felt fear then – but it wasn’t the best investment advisor. War is also terrifying, but so far the conflict is limited to Ukraine and Russia and we don’t know yet whether the invasion will really escalate into a full-blown, bloody war. Be calm and stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Bitcoin was down 1% on Wednesday, ending the day near $37,600, but it is losing another 7% on Thursday morning, trading below $35,000. Ethereum has lost 12% to $2,340 in the last 24 hours. Leading altcoins show a proportionate decline. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 8.4% over the day, to $1.57 trillion. The index of fear and greed of the crypto market fell by 2 points to 23, but being updated once a day, it clearly does not take into account the latest dramatic movements. The aggravation of tension around Ukraine exerted pressure on risky assets. There are growing risks of escalation associated with the introduction of Russian troops into Donbass. In such a situation, risky assets may continue to decline further. At the moment, we see that cryptocurrencies are selling stronger than developed world stocks (although not as extreme as Russian ones), confirming the risky nature of these assets and how they are not a replacement for gold. According to Glassnode, the wallets of long-term investors (hodlers) hold record volumes of BTC (76.5%). The volume of bitcoins, which have been without movement for more than 10 years, is also growing (12.6%). Thus, almost 90% of all currently available coins are out of the market. Now another country besides El Salvador may accept bitcoin as a means of payment. Senator Indira Kempis is developing a bill on cryptocurrencies and intends to convince the Mexican government to follow the "Salvadorian scenario" by recognizing BTC as a means of payment. Former SEC official Joseph Hall called the department's chances of losing the lawsuit against Ripple high. The regulator accuses the company of selling unregistered securities under the guise of XRP tokens.

USOIL continues to climb WTI crude surged after Russia launched a military operation in eastern Ukraine. The latest market jitters met support over 90.70 which sits next to the 20-day moving average. Sentiment would stay optimistic as long as price action is above this demand zone. A previous horizontal consolidation allowed the bulls to catch their breath and accumulate for the current push. A close above 95.50 would send the price towards the landmark 100.00. An overbought RSI may cause a brief pause if momentum traders take profit. NZDUSD hits resistance The New Zealand dollar jumped after the RBNZ raised rates for the third time in a row. The pair met selling pressure in the supply zone (0.6810) from the sell-off in late January. An overextended RSI led short-term bulls to take profit in that congestion area. However, the rebound trajectory may attract buying interest with the current pullback seen as an opportunity. 0.6680 is the next support after a drop below 0.6730. A deeper correction may test 0.6600, which is important support from the daily chart. AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar retreats amid cautious market sentiment. A break above the recent peak at 0.7245 suggests a strong bullish commitment. The pair is heading towards January’s high at 0.7310. A bullish breakout could turn things around in the medium term. After the RSI ventured into the overbought area, the bullish impetus stalled as intraday buyers took profit. 0.7165 is the next support as the RSI swings into the oversold area. Further down, 0.7100 is a key floor to keep the rebound intact.

The worst case scenario - Russian invasion of Ukraine - is materializing. We try to analyze its consequences for the economy and financial markets Oil price increases past $100 per barrel Russia is a key player on the energy commodities market, especially important for Europe. Situation on the oil market proves it - oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. Russia is exporting around 5 million barrels of oil each day, around 5% of global demand. Around a half of that is exported to the European Union. If the West decides to cut Russia off the SWIFT settlements system, Russian exports to the European Union could be halted. In such a scenario oil prices could jump $20-30 per barrel. In our opinion, the war risk premium included in current oil barrel prices amounts to $15-20. Europe is the main recipient of Russian oil. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Gold and palladium rally Conflict is the main driver of moves on the gold market. It is not the first time when gold proves to be a good store of value at times of geopolitical conflicts. Ounce of gold trades over 3% higher today, near $1,970, and just slightly over $100 below its all-time highs. Russia is an important producer of palladium, an important metal for the automotive sector. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Russia is a significant producer of palladium, which is a key metal in production of catalytic converters for the automotive sector. Palladium prices rallied almost 8% today. Fear means sell-off on the market Global stock markets are taking a hit not seen since 2020. However, panic is not as big as it was in early-2020. Uncertainty is the most important driver for global stock markets now as investors do not know what will come next. Correction on Nasdaq-100 futures deepened past 20% today. A big part of this drop, however, was caused by expectations of Fed tightening. DAX futures dropped around 15% since mid-January and trade near pre-pandemic highs. DE30 trades to halt decline at pre-pandemic high. Source: xStation5 Business in Ukraine is in danger It should not come as a surprise that Russian companies and companies with big exposure to Russia are the ones taking the biggest hit. Russian RTS dropped over 60% off the October 2021 high and briefly traded below 2020 lows! Polymetal International is a company worth mentioning - stock is plunging over 30% on London Stock Exchange as market fears sanctions will hit Anglo-Russian companies. Renault is also taking a hit as Russia is the second biggest market for the company. Banks with large exposure to Russia - UniCredit and Societe Generale - are also dropping hard. Even higher inflation From an economic point of view the situation is clear - military conflict will generate a new inflationary impulse. Prices of almost all commodities are trading higher, especially energy commodities. However, in case of commodity markets, a lot will depend on how conflict impacts logistics. Keep in mind that global logistics have not recovered from Covid-19 hit yet and now another negative factor is surfacing. According to the New York Fed index, global supply chains are the most tight on record. Central bankers' headache Covid-19 panic has been very short-lived, thanks to an enormous support offered by central banks. However, such an action is unlikely now. As conflict is inflationary and has a bigger impact on supply and logistics rather than demand, inflation becomes an even bigger problem for major central banks. On the other hand, quick tightening monetary policy would only magnify market turmoil. In our opinion, major central banks will continue with announced policy tightening. Risk of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March dropped but a 25 bp rate hike looks like a done deal. What's next? A key question for global markets now is - how much will the conflict escalate? An answer to this question will be a key to calming the markets. Once it is answered, calculations of impact on sanctions and speculations over changes in economic policy will begin.

S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis isn‘t how an S&P 500 bottom looks like – downswing continues with more volatility ahead.Credit MarketsHYG is going down again, and credit markets are turning risk-off – look for Treasuries to do relatively better next, with little impact upon stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, and the upswing got a poweful ally. Whatever retracement seen next, would be marginal in light of the developments.Crude OilCrude oil upswing can be counted on to continue, and oil stocks would remain among the best performing S&P 500 pockets. Black gold is though notorious for its wild volatility, and the coming days won‘t be an exception.CopperCopper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t in a rally mode, but are attempting to put in a low. I don‘t think it would hold, the dust hasn‘t settled yet.SummaryS&P 500 is plunging, and attempting to base, but more selling would inevitably hit. The overnight dust hasn‘t settled yet, but the panic lows would not happen today. Even if it weren‘t for geopolitics, stocks were in rough waters for weeks already, in a serious, yields and liquidity driven correction, with a slowing real economy on top. For all the short-term focus, the buying opportunity would materialize only once the Fed turns – by autumn 2022. The best places to be in right now, are those presented below – precious metals and commodities – as inflation fires continue to rage on.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

I discussed the potential for the invasion into Ukraine with a friend over the past few days and how this new war may change the global economy. We ended up discussing the Invasion of Kuwait that took place in August 1990. At that time, as soon as the Invasion of Kuwait started, consumers almost immediately changed their spending and financial habits.Suddenly, people stopped going out to dinner after work. They stopped going out for drinks. They also stopped playing computer games and spending money on most outside entertainment (movies and movie rentals – back in the Blockbuster days). In short, consumers became fascinated by the televised war and lost focus on almost everything else.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! As the conversation progressed, we started talking about how the US Federal Reserve may suddenly find that consumers have begun pulling away from traditional spending habits and how quickly these consumer trends can alter the economic landscape. For example, nearly 60 days into the Invasion of Kuwait, my friend remembered the US economy shifted into a much slower gear, and consumers continued to stay away from more normal spending habits.If this happens in today's super-inflated world, we may see a sudden shift in inflation, retail, housing, and general consumer demand very quickly. Recently, I started receiving messages from friends and clients worldwide who are focused on the Invasion of Ukraine – a whole new generation of people who may become entranced in the televised war (again).Consumer Retail May Suffer A -60% CollapseThis XRT Weekly Chart highlights the pre-COVID support levels that may become future targets if consumer spending habits suddenly shift. XRT has already fallen nearly -32% from the recent highs. If consumers continue to move away from outside economic activities, or more common post-COVID economic activities, we may see the Retail sector continue to move lower.Housing May Contract Faster Than ExpectedReal Estate may contract to near the COVID lows if consumers shy away from chasing speculative price trends in housing. Flipping houses has become a very hot industry over the past 5+ years. Yet, suddenly larger firms like Zillow and OpenDoor started offloading their Real Estate inventory because consumer demand shifted ahead of the US Fed's proposed rate hikes in 2022. The double-whammy of rising rates and war may be similar to what happened in the US between 1993 and 1994 – a very stagnant housing market.IYR has already fallen -16.5% from the highs and may decline to levels closer to -30% (or more) before finding a bottom. Wars tend to shift economies and spending habits very quickly.What To Stay Focused On Amid All The NoiseTraders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Looking back, gold has been rising nearly US$225 since December 15th, 2021, and US$195 since 28th of January 2022. Especially the strong rally over the last four weeks caught many by surprise. But our price target of US$1,975 was hit exactly last Thursday, when all other markets plunged in anticipation of strong sanctions against Russia. Markets then strongly recovered on Friday on hopes of weak sanctions and a potential postponement of the rate hikes by the FED. Over the weekend, however, NATO and its partners announced SWIFT sanctions against Russia. Monday will therefore likely be another wild and volatile day in the markets. But “peak fear” has probably been reached last Thursday (at least for now). Give peace a chance ðŸ•Šï¸ÂðŸ‡·ðŸ‡ºðŸ•Šï¸ÂðŸ‡ºðŸ‡¦ðŸ•Šï¸Â Fundamentally, banning Russian banks from SWIFT payments will lead to Russia stop selling oil & natural gas. Russian oil represents about 9% of global output and there’s an energy shortage already. The result will be a global depression and more inflation at the same time. And that would be the best-case scenario, cause as quickly as things unfold, WWIII is no longer an unthinkable horror scenario. We can only hope that successful peace negotiations will take place as soon as possible. In these uncertain times, gold should remain supported. As geopolitical events unfold, another sharp spike higher is always possible. A direct transition back into the correction, which began in August 2020, is unlikely. It would rather take much more time (at least a few months), before gold could drift back towards significantly lower grounds. Our maximum downside remains at US$1,625 for the potential 8-year cycle low, due in 2023 or 2024. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2022. On its weekly chart, gold continues to be in an uptrend. The breakout above the downtrend line led to a sharp advance over the last two weeks. The stochastic oscillator still has a buy signal in place. And with the sharp reversal/pullback since reaching $1,975, gold did close the week right at its upper Bollinger Band (US$1,889). Since the upper Bollinger Band has been bent upwards, gold will now have more room to continue its rally to the upside over the coming two to four weeks. However, the stochastic oscillator is about to reach its overbought zone. Comparing its behavior to the last 16 months, we have to assume that gold will have a hard time nesting up in the overbought zone for long. Hence, corrective price action is on the horizon. Overall, the weekly chart is still bullish and points to another attack towards US$1,950 to US$1,975. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 27th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 27th, 2022. The daily chart captures the sharp rally as well as the reversal and bloodbath in the gold market over last two days. So far, gold has given back nearly 50% of the rally since January 28th (from US$1,780 up to US$1,975 and then down to US$1,878). The stochastic oscillator has lost its embedded status and momentum is bearish now. Should gold want to correct further towards the 61.8%-retracement ($1,854), it will likely also test the former resistance and breakout level around US$1,840 to US$1,845. Such a pullback towards US$1,840 to US$1,855 has certain probability, but would also offer a very interesting long entry again. Since the short-term timeframes like the 1- and 4-hour charts are getting oversold, gold alternatively might find support between US$1,870 and US$1,880 over the next few days already. To summarize, the daily chart is currently bearish and patience is needed. But Gold I swell supported and should find support either between US$1,840 to US$1,855 or US$1,870 and US$1,880. Afterwards it should start another leg up. Conclusion: Strong reversal should lead to another leg up Last week’s price action was certainly not for the faint of heart. A daily gain of over +4% is extremely rare in the gold market and was immediately undone upon COMEX opening. The sharp reversal does not look too good, but it does not yet mean the end of the rally. Expect some more downside or at least sideways consolidation. Usually, such a sharp rally does not collapse immediately. Hence, once the bulls have sorted themselves, we expect another rise above US$1,900 with a minimum price target of US$1,950. An overshot towards US$2,000 is still possible, but now a bit less likely. Once this next attack will have failed, we assume the start of a corrective wave down somewhere in spring, which could last well into early to midsummer. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 27th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Natural Gas, Oil, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 Comments About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

GBPUSD looks to steady The sterling recoups some losses as sentiment stabilizes after the initial fear-driven sell-off. A clean cut through the daily support at 1.3360 has triggered a wave of liquidation. Sentiment remains downbeat despite the recent rebound. A deeply oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters. However, the pound is vulnerable to another sell-off as buyers could be wary of catching a falling knife. 1.3500 from the previous consolidation range is the closest resistance. Further down, 1.3200 (near last December’s lows) might be the next target. USDNOK breaks rising trendline The US dollar consolidates as the Ukraine conflict makes a too aggressive move by the Fed unlikely. A short-lived surge above the supply area (9.0300) indicates strong selling pressure around 9.0900. Then a fall below the rising trendline calls the recent rebound into question. 8.7900 is the next support and buyers will need to lift offers around 9.0900 before they could hope for a meaningful comeback. Further down, this month’s low at 8.6800 is a key floor to keep the greenback afloat. GER 40 attempts to rebound The Dax 40 rebounds as traders bet that sanctions against Russia may not reach their full extent. The index saw solid bids near its 12-month lows (13800). The RSI’s repeated oversold indication has led short-term sellers to take profit in this key demand zone. 14850 from the tip of a previous bounce is the immediate resistance where the bears could be awaiting to sell into strength. A bullish breakout could soothe a battered mood. Otherwise, another round of sell-off may push the index below 13500.

NASDAQ 100 is set to open sharply lower on Monday. Russia placing nuclear forces on high alert spooked markets. European gas prices continue to surge as stagflation beckons. Global financial markets remain on edge this morning as the Russia-Ukraine conflict looks to be in danger of spilling into a global threat. Over the weekend Russia placed its nuclear deterrent forces on high alert, while Germany pledged increased defense spending. Now further developments include Russia talking of placing nuclear missiles in Belarus and an apparent escalation of the rhetoric between global superpowers. Western governments have gone for tougher sanctions than many observers anticipated with the Russian Central Bank reserves being targetted as well as the global banking payment system SWIFT being closed to Russian banks. Russian ally Belarus held a referendum this morning that ditched its non-nuclear stance, paving the way for Russian nuclear missiles to be deployed there. NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Stock News All this has naturally seen risk assets collapse. European equity markets fell sharply this morning. At one stage the German Dax was down nearly 3% but has staged a slight recovery to lose 2.4% currently. However the European benchmark, the Eurostoxx 50, is down over 3.5% at the time of writing. Yields continue to fall as money flows into safe-haven assets. Gold and the dollar have naturally profited. The odds on rate hikes from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve have diminished as the threat of recession grows. Europe has the most to lose due to its dependence on Russian gas supplies. European natural gas futures (TTF) rose over 50% on Friday and have followed that up with a 12% gain on Monday. There is likely more to come here. NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Stock Forecast We do have a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI has not made matching new lows despite the NASDAQ 100 doing so. Usually, this is significant, but the RSI does remain in a strong downtrend in line with the NASDAQ. Thursday and Friday's rally was impressive, but even that failed to break the 9 and 21-day moving averages. Demonstrating this downtrend is powerful. The obvious target is a break of 4,300 and a test of the significant lows from March 2021 at $299.51. Nasdaq (QQQ) chart, daily For short-term traders, opening below $348 indicates we are on a bearish track and preparing for further declines. Last support at $338 could see a sharp decline to $328 based on the volume gap. Nasdaq (QQQ) chart, 15-minute

S&P 500 didn‘t correct much intraday, and the risk-on turn has continued unabated with value pulling ahead sharply – unlike the day before when the revesal came about because of tech. The dust is settling in the market‘s mind, VIX has indeed moved and the dollar weakened noticeably. That was the subject of Friday‘s analysis – the disappearing safe haven premium over many assets such as gold, crude oil and Treasuries (Treasuries though kept their cool the most, not losing the focus on Fed‘s tightening). Risk-on appetite returned to stocks with a vengeance, and market breadth has significantly improved – within the context of the ongoing correction, must be said. While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes. Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Sharp S&P 500 upswing on solid volume – the gains can continue but their pace would slow down. Negative sentiment is departing stocks as the existing bad news has been priced in. The pendulum is swinging the other way now. Credit Markets HYG is confirming the stock market upswing, but bonds are remaining more cautious overall – it‘s that the focus would shift over the coming 2 weeks again to the Fed. The yield spread keeps compressing and the 2-year bond didn‘t stop pressuring the Fed. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals have corrected a little but the upswing goes on – GDX performance is a good omen. The decline in prices wasn‘t sold heavily into anyway – we‘re still moving higher next as the rate raising cycle start is soon here. Crude Oil Crude oil bears are totally unconvincing, proving that the prior price upswing was about way more than geopolitical uncertainty – the chart remains strongly bullish, and we have higher to run still. Copper Copper upswing is indeed taking time to develop, but commodities strength remains in spite of the daily setback, which just illustrates the risk-on euphoria in stocks. The commodities upleg hasn‘t run its course, and the red metal would join in. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are refusing to extend Sunday‘s decline – while the worst appears to be over, the short-term direction can turn out in both directions. I‘m though slightlly favoring the bulls. Summary S&P 500 turnaround continues, and price gains are frontrunning the events on the ground. The upswing is vulnerable – to a consolidation at most as a full reversal would require fresh setbacks, including in Asia. Risk-on trades have the momentum, and credit markets agree. It certainly looks like a good time to take advantage of the precious metals and commodities discounts as momentary optimism in the markets that has nothing to do with the progress on inflation. Further, we‘re still in the real economy slowdown phase, and the Fed hasn‘t even started hiking yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Bitcoin, buy the news   With news, volatility is typically increasing, and a larger volume of transactions is at play. For amateurs, data evaluation in a turmoiled market environment generally results in procrastination of execution, meaning no trading or chasing trades. Professionals find necessary liquidity to exit a trade or use volatility to fade moves on less risk for entries. Last week’s invasion of Ukraine was no different. Only those prepared with a plan were able to position themselves in bitcoin. Bitcoin, daily chart, the giveaway: Crypto markets, daily charts as of February 28th, 2022. A giveaway was a widespread larger supply zone throughout the crypto sector (green horizontal lines on the daily charts above), and preset buy entries in the crypto space were getting triggered. Inter-market relationships stack the odds of placing a successful trade.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, entry target zone within reach: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 28th, 2022. With our entry target range nearly reached (see our previous chart book release), we were ready to act, knowing a possible larger time frame tuning point was a possibility. You might argue that the price has not penetrated the entry zone. Still, at a closer look, you will identify that due to exuberant volume on the surprise news day, the supply zone values had changed to provide significant support right at the rim of our initially planned zone. Charts need to be consistently updated to stay accurate! Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, weekly chart, another edge stacked: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2022. Precisely on the day in question, we also got a hedge rotational “buy signal” for bitcoin versus gold on the weekly chart. Consequently, this signal provided another inter-market relationship edge that supported our decision-making for aggressive entry. What we can see on the chart above that compares bitcoin with gold is that since institutional money has become a massive part of bitcoin holdings, these more significant funds rotate their money in and out between gold and bitcoin. Following the yellow line, one can see prices being high to buy bitcoin with gold at double top and acquiring bitcoin at a double bottom is a way to take advantage of cheaper bitcoin prices in relationship to gold. For us, a good reason to assume that gold holders might switch to bitcoin for the next foreseeable timeframe, to hedge their wealth preservation portfolios. Bitcoin, daily chart, profits booked and room to go: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of March 1st, 2022. The weekly chart above shows four more reloads within the last five days. All trades have been risk mitigated with our quad exit strategy. Consequently, the remaining position was market money at no risk to us. We posted daily calls to prepare interested parties for possible reentries. Prices have already advanced by nearly 30% from the lows. This preparedness and merely following rules allow ending up being positioned and not dependent on whether a turning point matures. Even in a negative outcome, profits have been made. With a bit of luck, these remainder positions can go a long way and provide substantial additional profits. In addition, one is positioned early before a trend is even established. Bitcoin, buy the news: We must confront opinion-forming debates led by ego (the need to be right). We use reconditioning behavior to achieve best results. The goal in mind is to “erase” intuitive responses and an execution time delay leading to sub-par entry timing. Consequently, consistent extracting of profits from the market is possible. At Midas Touch, we have made it our business to share our entry and exit timing and their underlying principles in our free Telegram channel to empower our clients and followers to become successful self-directed investors.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

  Sanctions, terminated contracts, and a plummeting currency – Russia is facing the financial crisis specter. Can gold also be affected? In the medium term, even painfully.  While gold continues to ride the bullish wave of geopolitical tensions, confusion has arisen over whether Russia’s financial woes will support or hurt the yellow metal. For context, I wrote on Feb. 28: Even if the recent escalation uplifts gold in the short term, the fundamental implications of Russia’s financial plight support lower gold prices over the medium term.  Please see below: To explain, with Russia essentially blacklisted from many influential FX counterparties, the Russian ruble relative to the U.S. dollar was exchanged for a roughly 50% discount on Feb. 27. As a result, Russian's purchasing power is nearly half of what it was before Sunday's developments. Furthermore, if you analyze the chart above, you can see that euros and U.S. dollars made up a large portion of Russia's monetary base in 2013 (the green bars on the left). Conversely, those holdings dropped dramatically in 2021 (the blue bars on the left).  In addition, if you focus your attention on the column labeled "Gold," you can see that FX has been swapped for gold, and the yellow metal accounts for roughly 23% of Russia's monetary base. Now, with the impaired state of the ruble offering little financial reprieve, Russia may have to sell its gold reserves to alleviate the pressure from NATO's economic sanctions.  As a result, while war is often bullish for gold, the fundamental implications of currency devaluation mean that gold is Russia's only worthwhile asset outside of oil. Thus, with bank runs already unfolding in the region, the yellow metal could be collateral damage. To that point, the USD/RUB closed at roughly 105 on Feb. 28. As a result, it costs 105 Russian rubles to obtain one U.S. dollar. With the spot gold price at around $1,900 per ounce, it costs roughly 199,500 Russian rubles to purchase an ounce of gold. In stark contrast, the USD/RUB closed at approximately 75 on Feb. 16, which means that less than two weeks ago, it cost 142,500 Russian rubles to purchase an ounce of gold at the current price. As such, in currency-adjusted terms, the cost of an ounce of gold in Russia has increased by roughly 40% in recent days. However, after Bloomberg posted an article on Feb. 27 titled “Bank of Russia Resumes Gold Buying After Two-Year Pause,” the revelation may have caused some anxiety about our short position (as a reminder, it’s not in gold, but in junior mining stocks). For context, an excerpt from the article read: “The central bank will begin buying gold again on the domestic precious metals market, it said in a statement. The move comes after the monetary authority and several of the country’s commercial banks were sanctioned in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” As a result, if Russia goes on a shopping spree for bullion, could the price skyrocket? Well, the reality is that the fundamentals don’t support the sentiment. As mentioned, the USD/RUB has surged in recent days, and the sharp decline in the value of the Russian currency is extremely bearish for the Russian economy. Please see below: Furthermore, while Russia may want to increase its gold reserves, it’s essential to focus on what Russia does and not what it says. For example, the Russian central bank increased its overnight lending rate from 9.5% to 20% on Feb. 28. While U.S. investors fret over a 25 basis point hike from the Fed (which, as mentioned previously, should occur in March), Russia had to increase interest rates by 10.5% to help stop the ruble’s bleeding.  Please see below: Source: Reuters For context, higher interest rates encourage capital flows, and with the ruble in free-fall, Russia is hoping that investors will buy the currency, invest in Russian bonds, and potentially earn a 20% return. Moreover, if the currency rallies during the holding period, the carry trade would be highly lucrative for an institution willing to incur the risk. However, the story is only sanguine in theory. In reality, though, crippling sanctions from NATO and private companies divesting their Russian assets mean that buying the ruble and other Russian securities requires a gambler’s mentality. For example, Viraj Patel, FX and Macro Strategist at Vanda Research, summed up the dynamic in a few simple words on Feb. 28: Source: Viraj Patel Twitter Thus, while Russia may claim it's buying gold, and who knows, maybe it will, the financial destruction plaguing the region will likely make Russia a net-seller over the medium term. To that point, if we circle back to the Bloomberg article referenced above, Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP SA, said in the same piece that investors would interpret the actions as short-term bullish.  However, aligning with our expectations, she noted that investors have misjudged the medium-term impact of Russia's currency crisis.  Please see below: Source: Bloomberg As a result, that’s why I wrote on Feb. 28 that while volatility may be the name of the game this week as investors struggle to digest the implications, the geopolitical risk premium that often supports gold may prove counterintuitive this time around. Furthermore, we shouldn't ignore the potential impact on the USD Index. For example, while the dollar basket defied expectations and rose materially in 2021, the momentum continued in 2022. However, after a sharp rally in January, investors repositioned their bets, and euro longs were in style once again. However, with the risk-on trade now disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, more downside for the euro implies more upside for the USD Index. Please see below: Source: Institute of International Finance (IIF)/Robin Brooks To explain, the color blocks above track the non-commercial (speculative) futures positioning for various currencies versus the U.S. dollar, while the black line above tracks the consolidated total. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the black line has moved higher recently, which signals fewer U.S. dollar long positions.   More importantly, though, if you focus your attention on the light blue blocks on the right side of the chart, you can see that speculative euro longs have increased and remain in positive territory. However, with the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict much more troublesome for the Eurozone than the U.S., speculative EUR/USD positioning still has plenty of room to move lower. To that point, Mark Sobel, Senior Advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), wrote on Feb. 28 that “the overall impact of Russia’s actions on the U.S. economy may not be significant, assuming oil prices don’t soar, though that remains a significant risk.” “The challenges for the ECB will be much greater in its debates over balancing the stagflationary consequences of the Russian invasion. Europe is a large net energy importer and remains dependent on Russia for oil and natural gas.” As a result: “European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will feel the strain more than Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Higher oil prices will boost inflation, weaken growth prospects and stoke stagflation fears.” Furthermore, if you analyze the right side of the chart below, you can see that Russia’s monetary base includes more euros (the light blue line) than U.S. dollars (the dark blue line). As a result, if Russia swaps its other FX holdings for rubles (to help stop the decline), the euro has more downside risk than the greenback. The bottom line? While Russia may put on a brave face and claim that gold purchases are on the horizon, the reality is that its materially weak financial position requires more attention to more pressing matters. With bank runs and a currency crisis already unfolding, combined with NATO sanctions and private companies divesting their Russian assets, the country’s leaders need to stem the tide before a depression unfolds. As a result, Russia’s oil revenues and the securities it can monetize are more likely to be used to support the Russian economy, rather than to buy gold. Thus, while the yellow metal has enjoyed short-term sentiment high (and so did the silver price), the fundamentals imply a much different outcome over the medium term. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Feb. 28, as the GDX ETF ended the session roughly flat. However, the recent rallies are far from troublesome. For example, I noted previously how gold rallied following the 2001 terrorist attacks and after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. However, those gains were short-lived, and the latter resulted in lower lows in the months that followed. As a result, while the recent volatility will likely continue, it doesn’t change the bearish medium-term thesis. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  The S&P 500 went sideways yesterday, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. Will the short-term uptrend resume? The broad stock market index lost 0.24% on Monday, after gaining 2.2% on Friday and 1.5% on Thursday. The sentiment improved following the Thursday’s rebound, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty following the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict news. On Thursday, the broad stock market reached the low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. And yesterday it went closer to the 4,400 level. For now, it looks like an upward correction. However, it may also be a more meaningful reversal following a deep 15% correction from the early January record high. The market sharply reversed its short-term downtrend, but will it continue the advance? This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower and we may see some more volatility. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,400 and the next resistance level is at 4,450-4,500. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350, among others. The S&P 500 index broke slightly above the downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Remains Above the 4,300 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Thursday it sold off after breaking below the 4,200 level. Since Friday it is trading along the 4,300 mark. We are still expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index fluctuated following the recent rally yesterday. This morning it is expected to open 0.2% lower and we may see some further volatility. Obviously, the markets will continue to react to the Russia-Ukraine conflict news. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index bounced from the new low on Thursday after falling almost 15% from the early January record high. We are maintaining our speculative long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XAUUSD grinds rising trendline Gold recovered after the first round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia ended without a resolution. The precious metal found support over 1885. The rising trendline from early February indicates that the general direction is still up despite a choppy path. The previous peak at 1974 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could send the price to the psychological level of 2000. The downside risk is a fall below the said support. Then 1852, near the 30-day moving average, would be the bulls’ second line of defense. AUDUSD attempts reversal The Australian dollar steadied after the RBA warned that energy prices could flare up inflation. A break above the previous high (0.7285) shows buyers’ strong commitment despite sharp liquidation. Sentiment swiftly recovered and may attract more buying interest. An overbought RSI may temporarily limit the upside. And the bulls could be waiting for a pullback to accumulate. 0.7220 is the closest support. A bullish close above the January peak at 0.7310 could initiate a reversal in the medium-term and extend gains towards 0.7400. CADJPY bounces back The Canadian dollar clawed back losses after the Q4 GDP beat expectations. A jump above 90.70 has prompted sellers to cover their bets, opening the door for a potential reversal. 91.10 is the next resistance and its breach could propel the loonie to this year’s high at 92.00. On the downside, the psychological level of 90.00 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. Otherwise, a drop to 89.30 would suggest that sentiment remains fragile. In turn, this would place the pair under pressure once again.

S&P 500 broke through 4,350s in what appears a back and forth consolidation, for now. Credit markets aren‘t leading to the downside – HYG merely corrected within the risk-on sentiment. Stocks and bonds are starting to live with the new realities, and aren‘t undergoing tectonic shifts either way no matter what‘s happening in the real world. Expect to see some chop not of the most volatile flavor next, and for the bulls to step in in the near future.What‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates – the 2-year yield is moving down noticeably, and that means much practical progress on fighting inflation can‘t be expected. Not that there was much to start with, but the expectations of the hawkish Fed talk turning into action, are being dialed back. The current geopolitical events provide a scene to which attention is fixated while inflation fires keep raging on with renewed vigor (beyond energies) – just as I was calling for a little deceleration in CPI towards the year end bringing it to probably 5-6%, this figure is starting to look too optimistic on the price stability front.Predictable consequence are strong appreciation days across the board in commodities and precious metals – let‘s enjoy the sizable open profits especially in oil and copper. I told you weeks ago that real assets are where to look for in portfolio gains – and even the modest S&P 500 long profits taken off the table yesterday, are taking my portfolio performance chart to fresh highs. I hope you‘ve been enjoying my calls, and are secure in the turmoil around. Way more profits are on the way, and I am not even discussing the lastest agrifoods calls concerning wheat and corn, for all the right reasons (just check out the key exporters overview)…Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis time, the S&P 500 bulls didn‘t shake off the selling pressure – the broad retreat though smacks of temporary setback. As in that the direction to the downside hasn‘t been decided yet – I‘m looking for the buyers to dip their toes here.Credit MarketsHYG downswing didn‘t attract too many sellers, and was partially bought, which means that the pendulum is ready to shift (have a go at shifting) the other way now.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing just great, and can be counted on to extend gains. Remember about the rate raising reappreciation that I talked in the long opening part of today‘s analysis – at central banks, that‘s where to look financially.Crude OilCrude oil bears have been taken to the woodshed, except that not at all discreetly. Let‘s keep riding this bull that had brought great profits already, for some more – as I have learned, I was a lone voice calling for more upside before last week‘s events.CopperCopper is a laggard, but still taking part in the upswing. The prior underperformance which I took issue with yesterday, was indeed a bit too odd.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto bulls are consolidating well reasoned and deserved gains, and the circumstances don‘t favor a steep downswing really. The current tight range is likely to be resolved to the upside in due course.SummaryS&P 500 turnaround is not a rickety-free ride, but goes on at its own shaky pace. Stocks are likely to consolidate today as bonds turn a little more in the risk-on side, which reflects last but not least the looming reassessment of hawkish Fed policies. That‘s where the puck is (and will increasingly be even more so as Wayne Gretzky would say) financially, and I discussed that at length in the opening part of today‘s analysis – have a good look. Precious metals and commodities already know they won‘t be crushed by any new Paul Volcker. Enjoy the profitable rides presented !Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

The energy market is very sensitive to fluctuations in supply and demand. For example, a 20% drop in demand in March-May 2020 took away 70% of the oil price at some point. Next, we saw the inverse relationship: a moderate production deficit (even with significant reserves in previous months) was enough to send oil prices to 8-year highs. The same applies to exchange prices for gas. At some point last year, they were approaching $2000 per 1,000 cubic meters, quickly falling back to 800. Today, its value exceeds $2200, and this is hardly the limit. With such sensitive energy prices, it is difficult to imagine a reliable model of how much prices can rise at a critical moment because Russia provides about 20% of oil supplies and 30% of gas to Europe. If we see a political decision (by the EU & US or Russia) or a business decision (if foreign partners refuse to buy energy from Russian companies due to the threat of sanctions), then we may see a complete cessation of oil and gas purchases and prices may repeatedly skyrocket, as was the case in 1973 with the OPEC oil embargo. However, under these conditions, a grey market will emerge, as in the case of Iran, which sold its oil at a deep discount to Asia, mostly to China. It is more likely that the West is set to phase out Russian energy, indirectly holding back investment in the industry and blocking access to technology. As a result, this will lead to a reduction in the share of the Russian Federation on the world stage. The current situation is accelerating long-term plans to redirect energy exports from Europe to China. However, these are projects that will begin to pay dividends only in a few years. Here and now, politics could turn into a price shock on a much larger scale than we have seen in the last 30 years. The scale of the current state of affairs is comparable to that of the 1970s.

EURUSD sees limited bounce The euro retreats as the ECB may dial back normalization amid the Ukraine crisis. A fall below the daily support at 1.1130 was an invalidation of the February rebound and forced buyers to bail out. The lack of support means that short-term sentiment has turned bearish once again. An oversold RSI may lift the pair temporarily due to profit-taking, but trend followers could be looking to sell into strength. 1.1230 is the closest resistance. A new round of sell-off may push the euro beyond 1.1050. USDCAD breaks support The Canadian dollar jumped after the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate to 0.5%. A break below the demand zone, around 1.2680, has put buyers on the defensive. The daily support at 1.2640 was a major level. And its breach could trigger a sell-off towards 1.2560, threatening the rally from late January. Further south, January’s low at 1.2450 is a key floor to keep the greenback afloat. An oversold RSI may lead short-term sellers to exit, driving up the price briefly, but a rebound may be capped by 1.2700. USOIL bounces higher WTI crude skyrocketed as the war in Ukraine could drag on pushing up energy prices. The rally accelerated after it broke above the psychological tag of 100.00. The RSI’s overbought situation in both hourly and daily charts indicates overextension. Profit-taking may drive the price back down and let the bulls take a breather. 104.00 is the immediate support in this case. Sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish and pullbacks could be limited. 120.00 would be the next stop when volatility comes around again.

Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.As we've seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.Increased Volatility & The Start Of An Excess Phase Peak Should Be A Clear WarningThis increased volatility in the markets, coupled with the increased fear of the US Fed and the global unknowns (Ukraine, China, Debt Levels, and others), may be just enough pressure to crush any upside price trends over the next few months. Technically, my research suggests the $445 to $450 level is critical resistance. The SPY must climb above these levels to have any chance of moving higher.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Unless the US markets find some new support and attempt to rally back towards recent highs, an “Excess Phase Peak” pattern will likely continue to unfold throughout 2022. This unique price pattern appears to have already reached a Phase 2 or Phase 3 setup. Please take a look at this Weekly GE example of an Excess Phase Peak pattern and how it transitions through Phase 1 through Phase 4 before entering an extended Bearish price trend.Read this research article about Excess Phase Peaks: HOW TO SPOT THEN END OF AN EXCESS PHASE - PART 2SPY May Already Be In A Phase 4 Excess Peak PhaseThis Daily SPY chart highlights my analysis, showing the major downward sloping trend line, the Middle Resistance Zone, and the lower Support Zone. Combined, these are acting as a “Wedge” for price over the past few weeks – tightening into an Apex near $435~440.If the US major indexes attempt to break this downward price trend, then the price must attempt to move solidly above this downward sloping price channel and try to rally back into the Resistance Zone (near $445~$450). Unless that happens, the price will likely transition into a deeper downward price move, attempting to break below recent lows, near $410, and possibly quickly moving down to the $360 level.SPY Weekly Chart Shows Consolidation Near $435 – Possibly Starting A Phase 4 Excess PeakTraders should stay keenly aware of the risks associated with the broad US and global market decline as the Ukraine war, and other unknowns continue to elevate fear and concerns related to the global economy. In my opinion, with the current excess global debt levels, extended speculative market bubbles, and the continued commodity price rally, we may be starting to transition away from an extended growth phase and into a deeper depreciation cycle phase.My research suggests we entered a new Depreciation cycle phase in late 2019 and are already more than 25 months into a potential 9.5-year global Depreciation cycle. What comes next should not surprise anyone.Read this article about Depreciation Cycle Phases: HOW TO INTERPRET & PROFIT FROM THE RISKS OF A DEPRECIATION CYCLE Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. Looking Forward - preparing for a possible Bear marketMarket dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.Want Trading Strategies that Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

USDJPY tests supply areaThe Japanese yen stalled after an increase in January’s unemployment rate.The pair’s rally above the supply zone around 115.80 has put the US dollar back on track. The general direction remains up despite its choppiness. 114.40 has proved to be solid support and kept the bulls in the game.A close above 115.80 would extend the rally to the double top (116.30), a major resistance on the daily chart. Meanwhile, an overbought RSI caused a limited pullback, with 115.10 as fresh support.NZDUSD breaks resistanceThe New Zealand dollar recovers amid commodity price rallies.After the pair found support near last September’s lows (0.6530), a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment could be turning around. A bullish breakout above the recent high (0.6810) would further boost buyers’ confidence and lift offers to January’s high at 0.6890.On the downside, 0.6730 is the first support if buyers struggle to gather more interest. 0.6675 would be a second layer to keep the current rebound intact.UK 100 lacks supportThe FTSE 100 slipped after the second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without much result.The index met stiff selling pressure at 7560 then fell below the critical floor at 7170. Increasingly bearish sentiment triggered a new round of sell-off to the psychological level of 7000 from last November.A deeper correction would lead to a retest of 6850, dampening the market mood in the medium-term. On the upside, the bulls must clear 7300 and 7450 to reclaim control of the direction.

  Kherson fell, but Ukrainians are still fighting fiercely. In the face of war, gold also shows courage – to move steadily up. The battle of Ukraine is still going on. Russian troops took control of Kherson, a city of about 300,000 in the south of Ukraine, but other main cities haven’t been captured yet. Ukrainian soldiers even managed to conduct some counter-offensive actions near the country’s capital. There is a large Russian column advancing on Kyiv, but its progress has been very slow over the last few days due to the staunch Ukrainian resistance and Russian forces’ problems with equipment, tactics, and supplies, including fuel and food. David is still bravely fighting Goliath! Of course, Russian forces still have an advantage and are progressing. However, the pace of the invasion is much slower than Vladimir Putin and his generals expected. The Ukrainians’ defense is much fiercer, while Russia’s losses are more severe. The Russian defense ministry admitted that 498 Russian soldiers have already been killed and 1,597 wounded, but the real number is probably much higher. Even if Russia takes control of other cities, it’s unclear whether it will be able to hold them. What’s more, although the West didn’t engage directly in the war, the response of the West was much stronger than Putin could probably have expected. The US and its allies supplied Ukraine with weapons and imposed severe sanctions against Putin and the Russian governing elite, as well as on Russia’s economy and financial system. For instance, the West decided to exclude several Russian banks from SWIFT and also to freeze most of Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserve assets. Additionally, many international companies are moving out of Russia or exporting their products to this country, adding to the economic pressure. The ruble plummeted, as the chart below shows.   Implications for Gold What does the ongoing war in Ukraine mean for the precious metals market? Well, the continuous heroic stance of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukrainian defenders is not only heating up the hearts of all freedom-lovers, but also gold prices. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has soared to about $1,930, the highest level since January 2021. As a reminder, until recently, gold was unable to surpass $1,800. Thus, the recent rally is noteworthy. The war is clearly boosting the safe-haven demand for gold. Another bullish driver is rising inflation. According to early estimates, euro area annual inflation soared from 5.1% in January to 5.8%, and the war is likely to add to the inflationary pressure due to rising energy prices. Both Brent and WTI oil prices have surged above $110 per barrel. Last but not least, I have to mention Powell’s appearance before Congress. In the prepared testimony, he said that the Fed would hike the federal funds rate this month, despite the war in Ukraine: Our monetary policy has been adapting to the evolving economic environment, and it will continue to do so. We have phased out our net asset purchases. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month. This sounds rather hawkish and, thus, bearish for gold. However, Powell acknowledged that the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The near-term effects on the U.S. economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain. Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. Hence, the war in Eastern Europe could make the Fed more dovish than expected at a time when inflation could be higher than forecasted before the war outbreak. Such an environment should be bullish for the gold market. However, there is one important caveat. The detailed analysis of gold prices shows that they declined around the first and second rounds of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats in anticipation of the end of the conflict. However, when it became apparent that the talks ended in a stalemate, gold resumed its upward move. The implication should be clear: as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine, but when the ceasefire or truce is agreed, we could see a correction in the gold market. It doesn’t have to be a great plunge, but a large part of the geopolitical premium will disappear. Having said that, the war may take a while. I pray that I’m wrong, but the slow progress of the Russian invasion could prompt Vladimir Putin to adopt a “whatever it takes” stance. According to some experts, he is already more emotional than usual, and when faced with the prospects of failure, he could become even more brutal or irrational. We already see that Russian troops, unable to break the Ukrainian defense in open combat, siege the cities and bomb civilians. Hence, the continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500 consolidation isn‘t turning out well for the bulls as 4,300 can be easily broken again if I look at credit markets‘ posture. Treasuries just aren‘t sliding no matter the Fed‘s ambiguity on inflation, let alone markets sniffing out rate hike ideas getting revisited. Still, tech gave up opening gains, and closed on a weak note while commodities and precious metals maintained high ground, and the dollar continued rising.The odds are stacked against paper market bulls, and as I had been telling you weeks ago already, this is the time of real assets outperformance. In this sense, miners‘ leadership is a great confirmation of more strength to come, of inflation to continue… Everyone‘s free to make their own opinion after the State of the Union address.On the bright side, the flood of recently closed series of trades spanning stocks, precious metals, oil and copper, has resulted in sharp equity curve gains – and more good calls are in the making, naturally:Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is facing a setback, which could turn a lot worse if the sentiment turn continues. Odds are it would, and we would see some selling going into the weekend.Credit MarketsHYG refused to extend opening gains, and the message is clear, and also a reaction to the Fed‘s pronouncements. Treasuries though are more careful in the tightening prospects assessment – risk-off in bonds and the dollar continues.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are doing great, and are likely to continue rising no matter what the dollar does. There is no good reason for a selloff if you look around objectively. Miners are confirming, the upleg is underway.Crude OilCrude oil upswing isn‘t yet done, it would be premature to say so. It seems though that the time of volatile chop and new base building can continue – oil stocks are the barometer.CopperCopper outperformance leaves me a bit cautious – the advance is likely to slow down and get challenged next. It was a good run, and the red metal isn‘t at all done in the medium-term.Bitcoin and EthereumCrypto downswing is reaching a bit farther than I would have been comfortable with. The buyers are welcome to step in on good volume, but I‘m not expecting miracles today or through the weekend.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are losing the initiative, and neither credit markets nor the dollar favor a turnaround today. Treasuries rising in spite of the Fed‘s messaging are also casting a clear verdict, and the yield curve compression continues. The risk-off sentiment that is getting an intermezzo here and there, is likely to rule unless the Fed makes a profound turn before the Mar FOMC. And given the inflation dynamics with all the consequences beyond economics, that‘s unlikely to happen. Markets are thus likely to continue fearing the confluence of events till...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

This month, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates. Contrary to popular belief, the tightening doesn't have to be adverse for gold. What does history show?March 2022 – the Fed is supposed to end its quantitative easing and hike the federal funds rate for the first time during recovery from a pandemic crisis . After the liftoff, the Fed will probably also start reducing the size of its mammoth balance sheet and raise interest rates a few more times. Thus, the tightening of monetary policy is slowly becoming a reality. The golden question is: how will the yellow metal behave under these conditions?Let’s look into the past. The last tightening cycle of 2015-2019 was rather positive for gold prices. The yellow metal rallied in this period from $1,068 to $1,320 (I refer here to monthly averages), gaining about 24%, as the chart below shows.What’s really important is that gold bottomed out in December 2015, the month of the liftoff. Hence, if we see a replay of this episode, gold should detach from $1,800 and go north, into the heavenly land of bulls. However, in December 2015, real interest rates peaked, while in January 2016, the US dollar found its local top. These factors helped to catapult gold prices a few years ago, but they don’t have to reappear this time.Let’s dig a bit deeper. The earlier tightening cycle occurred between 2004 and 2006, and it was also a great time for gold, despite the fact that the Fed raised interest rates by more than 400 basis points, something unthinkable today. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (monthly average) soared from $392 to $634, or more than 60%. Just as today, inflation was rising back then, but it was also a time of great weakness in the greenback, a factor that is currently absent.Let’s move even further back into the past. The Fed also raised the federal funds rate in the 1994-1995 and 1999-2000 periods. The chart below shows that these cases were rather neutral for gold prices. In the former, gold was traded sideways, while in the latter, it plunged, rallied, and returned to a decline. Importantly, just as in 2015, the yellow metal bottomed out soon after the liftoff in early 1999.In the 1980s, there were two major tightening cycles – both clearly negative for the yellow metal. In 1983-1984, the price of gold plunged 29% from $491 to $348, despite rising inflation, while in 1988-1989, it dropped another 12%, as you can see in the chart below.Finally, we have traveled back in time to the Great Stagflation period! In the 1970s, the Fed’s tightening cycles were generally positive for gold, as the chart below shows. In the period from 1972 to 1974, the average monthly price of the yellow metal soared from $48 to $172, or 257%. The tightening of 1977-1980 was an even better episode for gold. Its price skyrocketed from $132 to $675, or 411%. However, monetary tightening in 1980-1981 proved not very favorable , with the yellow metal plunging then to $409.What are the implications of our historical analysis for the gold market in 2022? First, the Fed’s tightening cycle doesn’t have to be bad for gold. In this report, I’ve examined nine tightening cycles – of which four were bullish, two were neutral, and three were bearish for the gold market. Second, all the negative cases occurred in the 1980s, while the two most recent cycles from the 21st century were positive for gold prices. It bodes well for the 2022 tightening cycle.Third, the key is, as always, the broader macroeconomic context – namely, what is happening with the US dollar, inflation, and real interest rates. For example, in the 1970s, the Fed was hiking rates amid soaring inflation. However, in March 1980, the CPI annul rate peaked, and a long era of disinflation started. This is why tightening cycles were generally positive in the 1970s, and negative in the 1980s.Hence, it seems on the surface that the current tightening should be bullish for gold, as it is accompanied by high inflation. However, inflation is expected to peak this year. If this happens, real interest rates could increase even further, creating downward pressure on gold prices. Please remember that the real federal funds rate is at a record low level. If inflation peaks, gold bulls’ only hope will be either a bearish trend in the US dollar (amid global recovery and ECB’s monetary policy tightening) or a dovish shift in market expectations about the path of the interest rates, given that the Fed’s tightening cycle has historically been followed by an economic slowdown or recession.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

With a sharp decline over the weekend, Bitcoin wiped out the initial gains, gave away the positions to bears after the third straight week of gains. On Saturday and Sunday, there were drawdowns to $34K on the low-liquid market. So the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $38K with a 3.8% loss. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has reached $39,000 while Ethereum has lost 4.5%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten decline from 2% (XRP) to 6.8% (LUNA). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 3.8%, to $1.71 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index sank from 42.9% on Friday to 42.3% due to the sale of bitcoin over the weekend. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 23 now, remaining in a state of "extreme fear". Looking back, in the middle of the week, the index had a moment in the neutral position. The FxPro Analyst team mentioned that the sales were triggered by reports that the BTC.com pool banned the registration of Russian users. Cryptocurrencies do not remain aloof from politics, and they are weakly confirming the role of an alternative to the banking system now, supporting EU and US sanctions against Russia, and showing their own initiative. The news appeared that Switzerland would freeze the crypto assets of the Russians who fall under the sanctions. In the second half of the week, bitcoin lost almost all the growth against the backdrop of a decline in stock indices. Although, last week started on a positive wave: BTC added almost $8,000 (21%) since previous Monday, but couldn't overcome the strong resistance of mid-February highs at around $45,000 and the 100-day moving average. Speaking about the prospects, pressure on all risky assets will continue to be exerted by the situation around Ukraine, where hostilities have been taking place for two weeks. Worth mentioning that the world-famous investor and writer Robert Kiyosaki said that the US is “destroying the dollar” and called for investing in gold and bitcoin. At the same time, the founder of the investment company SkyBridge Capital (Anthony Scaramucci) is confident that bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2024. At the moment, he has invested about $1 billion in BTC. Plis, a group of American senators is developing a bill that opens access to the crypto market for institutional investors. And one more news to consider: the city of Lugano in Switzerland has recognized bitcoin and the leading stablecoin Tether (USDT) as legal tender.

The week starts with a 10% rally in US crude prices after the US Secretary of state Blinken said that the US and its allies now consider an embargo on the Russian oil. The market mood is red, again, this Monday. Cutting off the Russian oil will increase the positive pressure on oil prices and will likely send the price of a barrel above $150 in the foreseeable future. The extended rally in oil and commodity prices will likely bring the European economies to ration consumption and weigh on the economic recovery and the corporate earnings in 2022. European indices are severely down at the open. US equities are also poised to open in the red. Bitcoin slipped below the $40K mark during the weekend, the US dollar index prepares an advance to the 100 mark, the euro-franc fell below the 1 mark for the first time since 2015 and gold hit $2000 an ounce. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 US crude jumps 10% on risk of sanctions on Russian oil 1:48 UBS downgrades equities to neutral 4:05 Market update: stocks, USD, gold, Bitcoin 5:29 Euro-franc tips a toe below 1.00, should we expect intervention? 6:47 US inflation to near 8% at Thursday print 7:39 ECB will give first verdict since war started on Thursday Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

USDCHF struggles for support USDCHF The US dollar softens as the Fed may settle for a less aggressive rate hike agenda. The recent sideways action is a sign of the market’s indecision. Sellers’ previous attempts to push below 0.9150 have met some buying interest in this demand zone. A definitive breakout may send the pair to January’s lows around 0.9100. Then the path of least resistance could be down, ending a three-month-long consolidation. 0.9230 is the immediate resistance and 0.9290 is a major hurdle before the greenback could bounce back. XAUUSD breaks higher XAUUSD Gold rallies as investors’ flight to safety continues. The bulls have tempered their aggressiveness after the initial surge. The latest pullback has been an opportunity to accumulate against a bullish backdrop. Price action continues to climb along the rising trendline which suggests that the direction is still up. A break above the psychological level of 2000 would bring in more momentum traders. In fact, that would send the price to August 2020’s high at 2075. Between the trendline and 1930 there is a key demand zone. GER 40 drops to a fresh low GER 40 The Dax 40 plunges for fears of stagflation in the eurozone. The index has ventured further into the bearish territory after it broke below March 2021’s lows around 14000. The liquidation is yet to end as sentiment remains downbeat. A break below the psychological level of 13000 would trigger a new round of sell-off to 12000. The RSI’s oversold situation from both daily and hourly charts may cause a limited bounce if short-term traders take profit. 13500 is the first resistance ahead and could attract more trend followers.  

  The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next? A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown. On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role. US Dollar Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) On the geopolitical scene, Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be resumed today in Brest (Belarus) at 14:00 GMT, while another meeting is already scheduled at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on Thursday in Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba will talk there in the presence of the Turkish foreign minister. We might therefore expect some de-escalation in the Black Sea basin this week if the two parties involved were able to reach an agreement after further negotiations. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Regarding natural gas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2022 report, suggesting that even with non-hydro renewable sources set to rapidly grow through 2050, oil and gas-derived sources should still remain the top energy sources to fuel most of the United States. The agency is forecasting a rise in the production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – which mainly comes from shale gas – by at least 35%! In summary, the threat of sanctions has already wiped out almost all Russian oil – at least 7% of global supply – from the world oil market. In the weeks or months to come, we can see sanctions on Russian oil exports create a boomerang effect on European economies, decreasing world market supply, increasing prices for industry, as well as even more rising expenses, and thus cost of living through a ripple effect. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDCAD breaks higher The US dollar bounces back as traders pile into safer currencies at the expense of commodity assets. The previous rally above the supply zone at 1.2800 has prompted sellers to cover. Then a follow-up pullback saw support over 1.2600, a sign of accumulation and traders’ strong interest in keeping the greenback afloat. A breakout above 1.2810 could pave the way for an extended rise to last December’s high at 1.2950, even though the RSI’s situation may briefly hold the bulls back. 1.2680 is a fresh support in case of a pullback. EURGBP bounces back The euro recoups losses as shorts cover ahead of the ECB meeting. The pair’s fall below the major floor (0.8280) on the daily chart further weighs on sentiment. The lack of support suggests that traders’ are wary of catching a falling knife. The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area has led to profit-taking, driving the price up. However, the rally could turn out to be a dead cat bounce if the bears fade the rebound in the supply zone around 0.8360. 0.8200 is a fresh support when momentum comes back again. SPX 500 struggles to rebound The S&P 500 extended losses as investors are wary of a global economic downturn. On the daily chart, a brief rebound has met stiff selling pressure on the 30-day moving average (4410). In fact, this indicates that the bearish mood still dominates after the index fell through 4250. Buyers have failed to hold above 4230, leaving the market vulnerable to another round of sell-off. 4110 is the next stop and a bearish breakout could lead to the psychological level of 4000. 4320 is now the closest resistance ahead.

Bitcoins image boost   In times of war, unfortunately, other news is quickly overshadowed temporarily. Gold, monthly chart, cup and handle: Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 7th, 2022. One significant factor is the gold bullish monthly chart with its cup and handle price formation. The larger time frame of the related market plays a substantial role in inter-market analysis. Gold, leading wealth preservation “insurance” for your money in inflationary times, should be on a bitcoin trader/investor’s radar. We find a bullish tone in gold to support possible bitcoin price increases.     Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, monthly chart, bitcoin is cheap: Bitcoin versus Gold in USD, monthly chart as of March 8th, 2022. An additional welcoming factor can be found in the monthly chart of the bitcoin relationship towards gold. Presently, around 20 ounces buy you one bitcoin, while in the last quarter of last year, the same bitcoin cost you instead 37 ounces of gold. Consequently, those who have exited a fiat currency system or those who constructively hedge their wealth preservation portfolio might have a greater focus on bitcoin currently as on gold; it is cheaper. Bitcoin, weekly chart, still a couple weeks: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 8th, 2022. A look at a weekly bitcoin chart shows temporary weakness in a general up slope near an entry zone. The last two weeks provided for substantial income-producing trading through partial profit-taking. Bitcoin had delivered a 32% range from US$34,322 to US$45,400. Unfortunately, there was no directional follow-through beyond this point, and bitcoin has yet again retraced substantially. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering right above a low-risk entry zone again, and we are hawkishly looking out for low-risk entries. A look into the past shows that it took bitcoin ten weeks to turn around in scenario A. Our timing prognosis is another two weeks now before we see possibly fast advancements. Bitcoins image boost: Some think of chocolate when thinking of Switzerland, and indeed this news is sweet to the bitcoin community. Bitcoins’ last step to gain momentum is widespread adoption. News, like the 10% increase in GDP since El Salvador’s declaration of bitcoin being accepted legal tender, is impressive. Yet, it is still met with doubt due to either political or economic situations of countries that have adopted bitcoin so far. With a central money mecca now representing progressive bitcoin use and old history of a conservative, strong financial stability image backing such behavior, widespread mass doubt can be swayed towards more bitcoin adaptation.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 8th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

S&P 500 indeed didn‘t reverse on Friday in earnest, and both tech and value sold off hard. Not much reason to be bullish thanks to credit markets performance either – the posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains). And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, let‘s bring up yesterday‘s rate raising thoughts and other relevant snippets: (,,,) If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come. Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback. Which stocks would do best then? Here are my key 4 tips – energy, materials, in general value, and smallcaps. But the true winners of the stagflationary period is of course going to be commodities and precious metals. And that‘s where the bulk of recent gains that I brought you, were concentrated in. More is to come, and it‘s gold and silver that are catching real fire here. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 didn‘t do at all well yesterday, and signs of a short-term bottom are absent. It‘s entirely possible that the brief upswing that I was looking to be selling into to start the week, has been not merely postponed. Credit Markets HYG is clearly on the defensive, and TLT reassessing rate hike prospects – yet, long-dated Treasuries still declined. There is no appetite to buy bonds, and that confirms my thesis of lower lows to be made still in Mar. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep doing great, and will likely continue rising no matter what the dollar does – last three days‘ experience confirms that. This is more than mere flight to safety - I‘m looking for further price gains as the upleg has been measured and orderly so far. Crude Oil Crude oil‘s opening gap had been sold into, but we haven‘t seen a reversal yesterday. The upswing can continue, and it would happen on high volatility. I don‘t think we have seen the real spike just yet. Copper For all the above reasons, copper isn‘t rising as fast as other base metals (one of the key engines of commodities appreciation). The run is respectable, and not overheated. $5.00 would remain quite a tough nut to crack – for the time being. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos haven‘t made up their mind yet, but one thing is sure – they aren‘t acting as a safe haven. Given the extent of retreat from Mar highs, it means I‘m looking for not too spectacular performance in the days ahead. Summary S&P 500 missed an opportunity to rise (even if just to open the week on a positive note), and its prospects for today aren‘t way too much brighter. It‘s that practically nothing is giving bullish signals for paper assets, and the market breadth has understandably deteriorated. The rush into precious metals, dollar and commodities remains on – these are the pockets of strength, lifting to a very modest and hidden degree Treasuries as well (these are however reassessing the hawkish Fed prospects) at a time when global growth downgrades are starting to arrive. Pretty serious figures, let me tell you. As I wrote yesterday, stocks may even undershoot prior Thursday‘s lows, but I‘m not looking for that to happen. The sentiment is very negative already, the yield curve keeps compressing, commodities are rising relentlessly, and all we got is a great inflation excuse / smoke screen. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and supply chain disruptions and other geopolitical events can and do exacerbate that. Just having a look at the rising dollar when rate hike prospects are getting dialed back, tells the full risk-off story of the moment, further highlighted by the powder keg that precious metals are. And silver isn‘t yet outperforming copper, which is something I am looking for to change as we go by. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Boeing stock falls as Russian raw material supplies are likely to be in short supply. Boeing earlier said it was suspending buying Russian titanium. BA stocks fell over 6% on Monday as main indices fell over 3%. Boeing (BA) stock slipped on Monday, even disproportionally versus the main market. While the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell in the region of 3% to 4%, Boeing underperformed as it fell just under 6.5%. Boeing Stock News Monday's move took Boeing stock to new 52-week lows as the stock remains pressured in the current risk-off environment. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Boeing had suspended purchases of titanium from Russia as the company felt it had enough supply from other sources. “Our inventory and diversity of titanium sources provide sufficient supply for airplane production, and we will continue to take the right steps to ensure long-term continuity,” a Boeing spokeswoman told WSJ. Also on Monday Cowen & Co. lowered their price target for Boeing from $265 to $230. Cowen maintained their outperform rating on Boeing. Breaking Defense had last week reported that Air Force One's replacement was running up to 17 months late, according to two sources. Boeing is the supplier of Air Force One. Boeing will also likely feel headwinds from the current surge in oil prices. While not directly affected, higher oil prices will flow through to higher airfares and a likely reduction in passenger demand. This would see a knock-on but delayed demand for additional planes affecting Boeing and its main competitor, Airbus. However, Boeing does have a large military division. At the end of 2021 the Boeing Defence, Space & Security division accounted for over 33% of total Boeing revenues. The US Department of Defense is the top customer of this division. Boeing Stock Forecast Breaking the 52-week low is significant, and from the weekly chart below we can see how Boeing failed to regain its pre-pandemic levels. This should have been setting off alarm bells as stocks and indices reached all-time highs. The aerospace sector was a special case, but technically this was a bearish signal. BA stock chart, weekly The daily chart outlines the series of bearish lower lows and highs. Any rally to $185 can be used to instigate fresh bearish positions. BA stock chart, daily

  Russian forces have made minimal progress against Ukraine in recent days. Unlike the invader, gold rallied very quickly and achieved its long-awaited target - $2000! Nobody expected the Russian inquisition! Nobody expected such a fierce Ukrainian defense, either. Of course, the situation is still very dramatic. Russian troops continued their offensive and – although the pace slowed down considerably – they managed to make some progress, especially in southern Ukraine, by bolstering air defense and supplies. The invaders are probably preparing for the decisive assault on Kyiv. Where Russian soldiers can’t break the defense, they bomb civilian infrastructure and attack ordinary people, including targeting evacuation corridors, to spread terror. Several Ukrainian cities are besieged and their inhabitants lack basic necessities. The humanitarian crisis intensifies. However, Russian forces made minimal ground advances over recent days, and it’s highly unlikely that Russia has successfully achieved its planned objectives to date. According to the Pentagon, nearly all of the Russian troops that were amassed on Ukraine’s border are already fighting inside the country. Meanwhile, the international legion was formed and started its fight for Ukraine. Moreover, Western countries have recently supplied Ukraine with many hi-tech military arms and equipment, including helicopters, anti-tank weapons, and anti-aircraft missiles, which could be crucial in boosting the Ukrainian defense.   Implications for Gold What does the war in Ukraine imply for the precious metals? Well, gold is shining almost as brightly as the Ukrainian defense. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has surged above $1,980 on Monday (March 7, 2022), the highest level since August 2020. What’s more, as the next chart shows, during today’s early trading, gold has soared above $2,020 for a while, reaching almost an all-time high. In my most recent report, I wrote: “as long as the war continues, the yellow metal may shine (…). The continuation or escalation of Russia’s military actions could provide support for gold prices.” This is exactly what we’ve been observing. This is not surprising. The war has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, while investors have become more risk-averse and have continued selling equities. As you can see in the chart below, the S&P 500 Index has plunged more than 12% since its peak in early January. Some of the released funds went to the gold market. What’s more, the credit spreads have widened, while the real interest rates have declined. Both these trends are fundamentally positive for the yellow metal. Another bullish driver of gold prices is inflation. It’s already high, and the war in Ukraine will only add to the upward pressure. The oil price has jumped above $120 per barrel, almost reaching a record peak. Higher energy prices would translate into higher CPI readings in the near future. Other commodities are also surging. For example, the Food Price Index calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has soared above 140 in February, which is a new all-time high, as the chart below shows. Higher commodity prices could lead to social unrest, as was the case with the Arab Spring or recent protests in Kazakhstan. Higher energy prices and inflation imply slower real GDP growth and more stagflationary conditions. As a reminder, in 2008 we saw rapidly rising commodities, which probably contributed to the Great Recession. In such an environment, it’s far from clear that the Fed will be very hawkish. It will probably hike the federal funds rate in March, as expected, but it may soften its stance later amid the conflict between Ukraine and the West with Russia and elevated geopolitical risks. The more dovish Fed should also be supportive of gold prices. However, when the fighting cools off, the fear will subside, and we could see a correction in the gold market. Both sides are exhausted by the conflict and don’t want to continue it forever. The Russian side has already softened its stance a bit during the most recent round of negotiations, as it probably realized that a military breakthrough was unlikely. Hence, when the conflict ends, gold’s current tailwind could turn into a headwind. Having said that, the impact of the conflict may not be as short-lived this time. I'm referring to the relatively harsh sanctions and high energy prices that may last for some time after the war is over. . The same applies to a more hawkish stance toward Russia and European governments’ actions to become less dependent on Russian gas and oil. A lot depends on how the conflict will be resolved, and whether it brings us Cold War 2.0. However, two things are certain: the world has already changed geopolitically, and at the beginning of this new era, the fundamental outlook for gold has turned more bullish than before the war. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

USDJPY breaks higherThe Japanese yen softened after weaker-than-expected GDP in Q4. Despite choppiness in recent price action, confidence in the greenback remains high.A failed attempt at the supply zone (115.80) suggests a lack of momentum, but a swift bounce off 114.65 reveals strong enough buying interest.A bullish breakout would lead to the double top at 116.35. Its breach could end the two-month-long consolidation and trigger an extended rally towards January 2017’s highs around 118.00. 115.40 is fresh support.AUDUSD seeks supportThe Australian dollar stalls as commodity prices consolidate. The rally above 0.7310, a major supply area, has weakened selling pressure and put the pair on a bullish reversal course.The Aussie’s parabolic ascent and an overbought RSI prompted short-term buyers to take profit. As the RSI swings back into the oversold zone, the bulls may see the current fallback as an opportunity to stake in.0.7380 is a fresh resistance and 0.7250 is the immediate support. Further below 0.7170 is a critical level to keep the rebound valid.UK 100 sees limited bounceThe FTSE 100 struggles as the UK plans to ban Russian energy imports.On the daily chart, a break below the demand zone (6850) wiped out 11-months worth of gains and signaled a strong bearish bias. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound, but a bearish MA cross could attract more selling interest.The liquidation is yet to end as medium-term buyers scramble for the exit. 7200 is a fresh resistance and 7450 is a major supply zone. A drop below 6800 may lead to 6500.

S&P 500 once again gave up intraday gains, and credit markets confirmed the decline. Value down significantly more than tech, risk-off anywhere you look. For days without end, but the reprieve can come on seemingly little to no positive news, just when the sellers exhaust themselves and need to regroup temporarily. We‘re already seeing signs of such a respite in precious metals and commodities – be it the copper downswing, oil unable to break $130, or miners not following gold much higher yesterday. Corn and wheat also consolidated – right or wrong, the market seeks to anticipate some relief from Eastern Europe.The big picture though hasn‘t changed:(…) credit markets … posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check yesterday on the high opening prices in crude oil and copper, but still. My favorite agrifoods picks of late, wheat and corn, are doing great, and the pressure within select base metals, is building up – such as (for understandable reasons) in nickel and aluminum. Look for more to come, especially there where supply is getting messed with (this doesn‘t concern copper to such a degree, explaining its tepid price gains).And I‘m not talking even the brightest spot, where I at the onset of 2022 announced that precious metals would be the great bullish surprise this year. Those who listened, are rocking and rolling – we‘re nowhere near the end of the profitable run! Crude oil is likely to consolidate prior steep gains, and could definitely continue spiking higher. Should it stay comfortably above $125 for months, that would lead to quite some demand destruction. Given that black gold acts as a „shadow Fed funds rate“, ......its downswing would contribute to providing the Fed with an excuse not to hike in Mar by 50bp. After the prior run up in the price of black gold that however renders such an excuse a verbal exercise only, the Fed remains between a rock and hard place, and the inflationary fires keep raging on.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is reaching for the Feb 24 lows, and may find respite at this level. The upper knot though would need a solid close today (above 4,250) to be of short-term significance. Remember, the market remains very much headline sensitive.Credit MarketsHYG clearly remains on the defensive, but the sellers may need a pause here, if volume is any guide. Bonds are getting beaten, and the outlook remains negative to neutral for the weeks ahead. Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals keep doing great, but a pause is knocking on the door. Not a reversal, a pause. Gold and silver are indeed the go-to assets in the current situation, and miners agree wholeheartedly.Crude OilCrude oil is having trouble extending gains, and the consolidation I mentioned yesterday, approaches. I do not think however that this is the end of the run higher.CopperCopper is pausing already, and this underperformer looks very well bid above $4.60. Let the red metal build a base, and continue rising next, alongside the rest of the crowd.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos upswing equals more risk appetite? It could be so, looking at the dollar‘s chart (I‘m talking that in the summary of today‘s analysis).SummaryEvery dog has its day, and the S&P 500‘s one might be coming today or tomorrow. It‘s that the safe havens of late (precious metals, commodities and the dollar) are having trouble extending prior steep gains further. These look to be in for a brief respite that would be amplified on any possible news of deescalation. In such an environment, risk taking would flourish at expense of gold, silver and oil especially. I don‘t think so we have seen the tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

To minimize trading risk and grow capital during a global crisis is somewhat hinged on the answers to speculative questions. How long will the Russia – Ukraine war last? How high is the price of oil and gas going to go? How quickly will central banks raise interest rates to counter high inflation? What assets should I put my money into? Knowing what the Best Asset Now (BAN) is, is critical for risk management and consistent growth no matter the market condition!‘BUY THE DIP’ or ‘SELL THE RALLY’? - DJI Weekly ChartAs of 3/8/22, YTD returns are: DJIA -10.20%, S&P 500 -12.49%, Nasdaq 100 -18.70%The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded as high as 36952.65 on January 5, 2022The DJIA put in a Covid 2020 Low of 18213.65 on March 23, 2020. When you double the price of this significant low, you get a price of 36427.30, which the DJIA reached on November 4, 2021. This was precisely 591 calendar days from the 2020 low. The 200% level seems to have capped the bull rally. If, in fact, this is the top and the start of a bear market, we should experience high volatility both up and down. However, the highs and lows should be lower as the market begins to trend lower. The volatility will also continue to increase as the market deflates and continues to lose capital.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! It appears this scenario may very well coincide with the fundamental current events of high inflation, central banks unable to add stimulus, having to raise their interest rates, and current/future geopolitical events.What-To-Do Before the Storm Hits“Have A Plan and Stick-To-Your-Plan”There are some basic strategies or practices that professional traders utilize to minimize trading risk and grow capital. Here are a few ideas:Bull/Bear Markets – In an upmarket, you should buy the dips. In a down market, you should do the opposite and sell the rallies. Rallies in a down 'bear' market tend to be very fast and short-lived.Diversification – Don't have your eggs in too many baskets. It is better to navigate thru a storm by focusing your resources specifically rather than generally.Leverage – Reduce leverage, position size, or know how you will respond to different percentage losses or gains. Understand what your investment objective is as well as your tolerance for risk. If you're having trouble sleeping at night, you should reduce your holdings to the place where you are comfortable.Leverage is a mathematical equation, and it does not have to be 1x, 2x, etc. It can also be 0.75x, 0.50x, etc. You get to decide what's best for you and your family. Leverage is also a double-edged sword! Be careful, especially when the markets are on edge and volatile.Where is the Institutional Money Going?The global currency market, otherwise known as Forex or FX, is the largest market in the world. According to the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey, published on December 8, 2019, by the Bank for International Settlements, it has an average daily transactional volume of $6.6 trillion.By tracking global money flow, we can get a pretty good idea of where the smart money is going. For now, let’s see what has happened during the last 6-months.According to www.finviz.com, we notice that the US Dollar, despite its Covid stimulus spending spree, was the preferred currency. However, the Eurodollar has seen substantial outflows decreasing by -7.60%, which is entirely understandable with the Russia – Ukraine War at their doorstep.Global central banks ponder how quickly to raise interest rates in order to curb high inflation!According to TradingEconomics, the current global interest rates by major country are: United States 0.25%, Japan -0.10%, Switzerland -0.75%, Euro Region 0.00%, United Kingdom 0.50%, Canada 0.50%, and Australia 0.10%.The US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its next policy meeting. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16. We need to pay close attention to this high-impact market event.What strategies can help you minimize trading risk and grow capital?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Minimizing risk in order to grow your capital must remain a primary focus for all investors and traders. Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Five-day DAX Price Chart shows it went up after a significant decline few days ago. However, today’s daily chart shows there’s a small downtrend and many companies have decreased since yesterday. Significantly affected - two major automotive industries and Delivery Hero. All of presented charts are courtesy of TradingView.com GER 40 has caught the ‘ground level’, but still trades Ca. 8% lower than before warfare in the Eastern Europe as chart shows: But what about last 24 hours what triggers us mostly? A decline amounts to ca. 3%. Many of stocks have decreased by these three – BMW, MBG And DHER have done it significantly. Mercedes-Benz AG has declined by almost 6% BMW has neared the -7% level. Delivery Hero (DHER) has plunged by almost 6.5%, have a look at the chart below: Source: TradingView.com, Investing.com, Capital.com

S&P 500 tech driven upswing makes the advance a bit suspect, and prone to consolidation. I would have expected value to kick in to a much greater degree given the risk-on posture in the credit markets. The steep downswing in commodities and precious metals doesn‘t pass the smell test for me – just as there were little cracks in the dam warning of short-term vulnerability at the onset of yesterday, the same way there are signs of the resulting downswing being overdone now.And that has consequences for the multitude of open positions – the PMs and commodities super bull runs are on, and the geopolitics still support the notion of the next spike.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 turned around, and the volume isn‘t raising too many eyebrows. However, the bulls should have tempered price appreciation expectations, to put it politely...Credit MarketsHYG turned around, but isn‘t entirely convincing yet. We saw an encouraging first step towards risk-on turn that requires that the moves continue, which is unlikely today – CPI is here, and unlikely to disappoint the inflationistas.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals downswing looks clearly overdone, and I continue calling for a shallow, $1,980 - $2,000 range consolidation next. This gives you an idea not to expect steep silver discounts either. Miner are clear, and holding up nicely.Crude OilCrude oil downswing came, arguably way too steep one. Even oil stocks turned down in spite of the S&P 500 upswing, which is odd. I‘m looking for gradual reversal of yesterday‘s weakness in both.CopperCopper has made one of its odd moves on par with the late Jan long red candle one – I‘m looking for the weakness to be reversed, and not only in the red metal but within commodities as such.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are giving up yesterday‘s upswing – they are dialing back the risk-on turn and rush out of the safe havens of late.SummaryThe S&P 500 dog indeed just had its day, but the price appreciation prospects are not looking too bright for today. With attention turning to CPI, and yesterday‘s „hail mary decline aka I don‘t need you anymore“ in the safe havens of late (precious metals, crude oil, wheat, and the dollar to name just a few) getting proper scrutiny, I‘m looking for gradual return to strength in all things real (real assets) – it‘s my reasonable assumption that the markets won‘t get surprised by an overwhelmingly positive headline from Eastern Europe at this point. Focusing on the underlying fundamentals and charts, I don‘t think so we have seen the real asset tops – precious metals are likely to do great on the continued inflation turning into stagflation (GDP growth figures being downgraded), and commodities are set to further benefit from geopolitics (among much else).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Here is the link to the chart image PSG Chart As highlighted on this chart, it is evident that after Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) consolidates for a while. It will then breakout, pullback and pump to a new all time high (ATH). During this accumulation phase, many factors define the rise and fall of PSG price within this range. As seen yesterday, PSG lost a match to Real Madrid which influenced the fall from $17.76 to $14. More factors and news outbreak will make price rally within this range and a bigger win by PSG will make price break out of this accumulation phase to upside. This will give investors high return with 500% - 600% ROI from $12.10 to $60 and $65 as the take profit. What do you think? Share your opinion in the comment section✍️ You can also demand for analysis of your preferred coin Follow me stay updated about this coin and more helpful projects like this🎁 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗 Here is the link to the idea on Tradingview here Please attach this to all my ideas👇 Join my FREE Telegram Channel for daily updates and signals https://t.me/Petrock_Signals

NZDUSD consolidates gains The New Zealand dollar inched higher supported by roaring commodity prices. A break above the daily resistance at 0.6890 has put the kiwi back on track in the medium term. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests an acceleration to the upside. As sentiment improves, the bulls may see the current consolidation as an opportunity to accumulate. A close above 0.6920 would extend the rally to 0.7050. 0.6800 is the first support and 0.6730 over the 30-day moving average a key demand zone. XAGUSD seeks support Silver consolidates amid ongoing geopolitical instability. A bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the rally. A tentative break below 25.40 has prompted some buyers to take profit. While sentiment remains optimistic, a correction might be necessary for the bulls to take a breather. The psychological level of 25.00 is a major demand zone. Its breach could send the precious metal to 24.30 which sits on the 30-day moving average. A rally above 26.90 could propel the price to last May’s highs around 28.50. US 30 struggles for buyers The Dow Jones 30 turned south after talks between Russia and Ukraine stalled again. A rebound above 34000 has provided some relief. Nonetheless, enthusiasm could be short-lived after the index gave up all recent gains. The prospect of a bear market looms if this turns out to be a dead cat bounce. A fall below 32300 could trigger another round of liquidation and push the Dow to a 12-month low at 30800. On the upside, 33500 is the first resistance. The bulls will need to lift offers around 34100 before they could attract more followers.

  Stock prices remain very volatile, as the Ukraine conflict keeps dominating headlines. Will the market reverse its downtrend? The S&P 500 index gained 2.57% on Wednesday, Mar. 9, as it retraced some of the recent decline. The broad stock market’s gauge got back to the 4,300 level after bouncing from its Tuesday’s low of 4,157.87. On Feb. 24 the index fell to the local low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.3% lower and we may see further consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,300, and the next resistance level is at 4,350-4,400, among others. On the other hand, the support level remains at 4,150-4,200. The S&P 500 index continues to trade above the recently broken downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – More Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. Recently it broke below the short-term consolidation. On Tuesday it fell to around 4,150, before bouncing back to the 4,200-4,250 level. We are still maintaining our long position, as we are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index bounced yesterday, but this morning it is expected to open lower. We will likely see some more news-driven volatility. For now, it looks like an upward correction but it may also be a more meaningful upward reversal. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index retraced some of the recent decline, but we may see more volatility. We are maintaining our long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

It would be good to end this week with some positive news like stock rally. In general UK100 perform quite well, but one popular brand has lost ca. 1.5% over last 24 hours. All charts are courtesy of TradingView.com Coca-Cola HBC (CCH) Chart Fresnillo (FRES) Has Plunged deeper – the loses amount to ca. 3% Associated British Food (ABF) chart also shows a decline. The price has declined by ca. 1.5% as CCH has done Source: TradingView.com

From time to time, we may want to consider volatility as an ally. After all, why would highly volatile markets necessarily mean more losing trades?The first target was hit – BOOM! Today – just before the weekend – it is time to bank some profits from my recent trade projections (provided on March 2). Since then, the trade plan has provided our dear subscribers with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile.The first possibility is the swing trading with trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article.Trade entry triggered on Tuesday, March 8 (firm rebound on yellow band), stop lifted once price extends beyond mid-point (median) price between first target and entry, thus ending at $4.607 (black dotted line), given the market closed at its daily high of $4.704 (purple dotted line) that same day and assuming you entered that long trade at $4.550 (top of the yellow band). That was a quick one that lasted only a couple hours for the day traders who closed their trades at the regular market close (two candles later, see below chart). For the swing traders, the win-stop was triggered the next day (Wednesday) on the following pull-back. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart)The second option is to scale the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders).This method consists of “riding the tails” (or the shadows). To get a better grasp of this concept, let’s zoom out on a 4H-chart so you can see the multiple rebounds of the price characterized by the shadows (or tails) of candlesticks, where a crowd of bulls are placing buy orders around that yellow support zone, therefore squeezing bears by pushing prices towards the upside (like some sort of rope pulling game). This trading style often requires stops to be tighter with some profit-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5 (with usually fixed targets). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart)Third possibility: position trading. This is probably the most passive trading style, as it would suit everyone’s busy timetable (and be the most rewarding). This is usually the one we privilege at Sunshine Profits since it allows us to provide trade projections some time in advance for our patient sniper traders to lock in their trading targets and take sufficient time to assess the associated risk with each projection as part of a full trade plan (or flying map).Let’s zoom out again to spot our first target getting hit today on a daily chart so we can have an overall view of the next target to be locked in while lifting our stop to breakeven (entry), previous swing low ($4.450) or using an Average True Range (ATR) ratio as some of you may like to use:Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)That’s all folks for today. Have a great weekend!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

We live in uncertain times, but one thing is (almost) certain: the Fed’s tightening cycle will be followed by an economic slowdown – if not worse.There are many regularities in nature. After winter comes spring. After night comes day. After the Fed’s tightening cycle comes a recession. This month, the Fed will probably end quantitative easing and lift the federal funds rate. Will it trigger the next economic crisis?It’s, of course, more nuanced, but the basic mechanism remains quite simple. Cuts in interest rates, maintaining them at very low levels for a prolonged time, and asset purchases – in other words, easy monetary policy and cheap money – lead to excessive risk-taking, investors’ complacency, periods of booms, and price bubbles. On the contrary, interest rate hikes and withdrawal of liquidity from the markets – i.e., tightening of monetary policy – tend to trigger economic busts, bursts of asset bubbles, and recessions. This happens because the amount of risk, debt, and bad investments becomes simply too high.Historians lie, but history – never does. The chart below clearly confirms the relationship between the Fed’s tightening cycle and the state of the US economy. As one can see, generally, all recessions were preceded by interest rate hikes. For instance, in 1999-2000, the Fed lifted the interest rates by 175 basis points, causing the burst of the dot-com bubble. Another example: in the period between 2004 and 2006, the US central bank raised rates by 425 basis points, which led to the burst of the housing bubble and the Great Recession.One could argue that the 2020 economic plunge was caused not by US monetary policy but by the pandemic. However, the yield curve inverted in 2019 and the repo crisis forced the Fed to cut interest rates. Thus, the recession would probably have occurred anyway, although without the Great Lockdown, it wouldn’t be so deep.However, not all tightening cycles lead to recessions. For example, interest rate hikes in the first half of the 1960s, 1983-1984, or 1994-1995 didn’t cause economic slumps. Hence, a soft landing is theoretically possible, although it has previously proved hard to achieve. The last three cases of monetary policy tightening did lead to economic havoc.It goes without saying that high inflation won’t help the Fed engineer a soft landing. The key problem here is that the US central bank is between an inflationary rock and a hard landing. The Fed has to fight inflation, but it would require aggressive hikes that could slow down the economy or even trigger a recession. Another issue is that high inflation wreaks havoc on its own. Thus, even if untamed, it would lead to a recession anyway, putting the economy into stagflation. Please take a look at the chart below, which shows the history of US inflation.As one can see, each time the CPI annul rate peaked above 5%, it was either accompanied by or followed by a recession. The last such case was in 2008 during the global financial crisis, but the same happened in 1990, 1980, 1974, and 1970. It doesn’t bode well for the upcoming years.Some analysts argue that we are not experiencing a normal business cycle right now. In this view, the recovery from a pandemic crisis is rather similar to the postwar demobilization, so high inflation doesn’t necessarily imply overheating of the economy and could subsidy without an immediate recession. Of course, supply shortages and pent-up demand contributed to the current inflationary episode, but we shouldn’t forget about the role of the money supply. Given its surge, the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation. However, this is exactly what can trigger a recession, given the high indebtedness and Wall Street’s addiction to cheap liquidity.What does it mean for the gold market? Well, the possibility that the Fed’s tightening cycle will lead to a recession is good news for the yellow metal, which shines the most during economic crises. Actually, recent gold’s resilience to rising bond yields may be explained by demand for gold as a hedge against the Fed’s mistake or failure to engineer a soft landing.Another bullish implication is that the Fed will have to ease its stance at some point in time when the hikes in interest rates bring an economic slowdown or stock market turbulence. If history teaches us anything, it is that the Fed always chickens out and ends up less hawkish than it promised. In other words, the US central bank cares much more about Wall Street than it’s ready to admit and probably much more than it cares about inflation.Having said that, the recession won’t start the next day after the rate liftoff. Economic indicators don’t signal an economic slump. The yield curve has been flattening, but it’s comfortably above negative territory. I know that the pandemic has condensed the last recession and economic rebound, but I don’t expect it anytime soon (at least rather not in 2022). It implies that gold will have to live this year without the support of the recession or strong expectations of it.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

USDCAD struggles for supportThe Canadian dollar surged after a sharp drop in February’s unemployment rate. A break above the recent peak at 1.2875 has consolidated the US dollar’s lead.The RSI’s repeatedly overbought condition has led to some profit-taking. As the indicator swung into the oversold area, a pullback attracted bargain hunters in the demand zone between 61.8% (1.2700) Fibonacci retracement level and 1.2680.A rally above 1.2840 may resume the rally and send the pair to December’s high at 1.2960.EURJPY attempts reversalThe euro continues upward after the ECB left the door open to an interest rate hike. A pop above 128.60 has prompted sellers to reconsider their bets.However, traders can expect strong bearish pressure in the supply zone around 129.20. This level overlays with the 20-day moving average, making it a congestion area.An overbought RSI has tempered the initial comeback and the bulls need to consolidate their positions before they could push further. 126.50 is key support and 124.40 a second line of defense to keep the pair afloat.UK 100 bounces backThe FTSE 100 recoups losses as Britain’s GDP beat expectations in January. The rebound has gained traction after it broke above 7200.After a brief pause, the index met buying interest over 7050 and a bullish MA cross indicates an acceleration to the upside. Sentiment remains cautious from the daily chart perspective though and the bears could be waiting to sell into strength.7450 at the origin of the latest sell-off is a major hurdle as its breach could turn the mood around. Otherwise, there could be a revision of 6800 soon.

S&P 500 bulls again missed the opportunity, and credit markets likewise. Not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). In a risk-on environment, value and cyclicals such as financials would be reacting positively, but that‘s not the case right now. At the same time, equal weighted S&P 500 (that‘s RSP) hasn‘t yet broken below its horizontal support above $145, meaning its posture isn‘t as bad as in the S&P 500. Should it however give, we‘re going considerably below 4,000. That‘s why today‘s article is titled hanging by a thread. Precious metals and commodities continue consolidating, and the least volatile appreciation opportunity presents the red metal. And it‘s not only about copper – crude oil market is going through supply realignment, and demand is not yet being destroyed on a massive scale. Coupled with the long-term underinvestment in exploration and drilling (US is no longer such a key producer as was the case in 2019), crude oil prices would continue rising on fundamentals, meaning the appreciation pace of Feb-Mar would slow down. Precious metals would have it easy next as the Fed is bound to be forced to make a U-turn in this very short tightening cycle (they didn‘t get far at all, and inflation expectations have in my view become unanchored already). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and Nasdaq remains in a sorry state. 4,160s are the line in the sand, breaking which would accelerate the downswing. Inflation is cutting into the earnings, and stocks aren‘t going to like the coming Fed‘s message. Credit Markets HYG didn‘t keep at least stable – the pressure in the credit markets is ongoing, and the stock market bulls don‘t have much to rejoice over here. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals downswings are being bought, and are shallow. The sellers are running out of steam, and the opportunity to go somewhat higher next, is approaching. Crude Oil Crude oil is stabilizing, but it may take some time before the upswing continues with renewed vigor. As for modest extension of gains, we won‘t be disappointed. Copper Copper had one more day of fake weakness, but the lost gains of Friday would be made up for next – and given no speculative fever here to speak of, it would have as good lasting power as precious metals. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos remain undecided, but indicate a little breathing room, at least for today. Still, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 is getting in a precarious position, but the internals aren‘t (yet) a screaming sell. Credit markets continue leading lower, and the risk-off positioning is impossible to miss. Not even financials are able to take the cue, and rise. It‘s that the rise in yields mirrors the ingrained inflation, and just how entrenched it‘s becoming. No surprise if you were listening to me one year ago – the Fed‘s manouevering room got progressively smaller, and the table is set for the 2H 2022 inflation respite (think 5-6% year end on account of recessionary undercurrents) to be superseded with even higher inflation in 2023, because the Fed would be forced later this year to turn back to easing. Long live the precious metals and commodities super bulls! Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

It’s a quite good day for German most popular index. Charts - courtesy of TradingView.com There are three brands which should be definitely satisfied as shortly before markets closes… Deutsche Bank (DBK) has gone ca. 7.4% up: Porsche (PAH3) has added ca. 6%: Volkswagen has increased by ca. 5.2% Source: TradingView.com  

Bitcoin price loses momentum as it slides back into consolidation along the $36,398 to $38,895 demand zone. Ethereum price slides below a symmetrical triangle, hinting at a move below $2,000. Ripple price remains bullish as bulls eye a retest of $1 psychological level. Bitcoin price continues to tag the immediate demand area, weakening it. Despite the sudden bursts in buying pressure, BTC seems to be in consolidation mode. Ethereum price has triggered a bearish outlook while Ripple price shows signs of heading higher. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: Lower lows hinting at a steeper decline Bitcoin price moves with no sense of direction Bitcoin price dips into the $36,398 to $38,895 demand zone for the fourth time without producing any higher highs. This price action is indicative of a consolidation and is likely to breach lower. A daily candlestick close below $36,398 will invalidate the demand zone and knock BTC to retest the weekly support level at $34,752, which is the last line of defense. A breakdown of this barrier will open the path for bears to crash Bitcoin price to $30,000 or lower. Here, market makers will push BTC below $29,100 to collect liquidity resting below the equal lows formed in mid-2021. BTC/USD 1-day chart While things look inauspicious for Bitcoin price, a strong bounce off the said demand zone that retests the weekly supply zone, ranging from $45,550 to $51,860, will provide some relief for bulls. Ethereum price favors bears Ethereum price action from January 22 to March 4 created three lower highs and higher lows, which, when connected via trend lines, resulted in a symmetrical triangle formation. This technical formation forecasts a 26% move obtained by measuring the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point. On March 6, ETH breached below, signaling a bearish breakout, which puts the theoretical target at $1,962. A breakdown of the weekly support level at $2,541 is vital; a breakdown of this barrier will expedite the move lower. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the recent onslaught of bearishness, Ethereum price needs to produce a daily candlestick close above $3,413 to invalidate the bullish thesis. Such a development will also open the possibility of kick-starting a potential uptrend. https://youtu.be/-U0QTf_NwnI Ripple price maintains its bullish momentum Ripple price traverses a bull flag continuation pattern, a breakout from which hints at a continuation of the uptrend. This technical formation contains an impulsive move higher followed by a consolidation in the form of a pennant. The 55% rally between February 3 and 8 formed a bullish flag pole continuation pattern, and the consolidation that ensued in the form of lower highs and higher lows created the pennant. Together, the bullish setup forecasts a 31% ascent for XRP price, obtained by adding the flag pole’s height to the breakout point from the pennant. On March 11, Ripple price broke out from the pennant, signaling the start of the 31% uptrend to $1. So far, the retest seems to be holding up well, so investors can expect the remittance token to continue its journey higher to the $1 psychological level. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close below the immediate demand zone, ranging from $0.689 to $0.705, will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis for Ripple price. In such a case, XRP has the twelve-hour demand zone, extending from $0.546 to $0.633 to support any residual selling pressure. https://youtu.be/rCFQmMHWJZ4

Soaring real estate, rising volatility, surging commodities and slumping stocks - Sound Familiar?This past week marked the 13th anniversary of the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009. The March 6, 2009 stock market low for the S&P 500 marked a staggering overall value loss of 51.9%.The GFC of 2007-09 resulted from excessive risk-taking by global financial institutions, which resulted in the bursting of the housing market bubble. This, in turn, led to a vast collapse of mortgage-back securities resulting in a dramatic worldwide financial reset.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! IS HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF?The following graph shows us that precious metals and energy outperform the stock market as the ‘Bull’ cycle reaches its maturity. The stock market is always the first to lead, the second being the economy, and the third, being the commodity markets. But history has shown that commodity markets can move up substantially as the stock market ‘Bull’ runs out of steam.The current commodities rally in Gold began August 2021, Crude Oil April 2020, and Wheat in January 2022. Interestingly we started seeing capital outflows in the SPY-SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF in early January 2022, and the DRN-Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF starting back in late December 2021.LET’S SEE WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STOCK AND COMMODITY MARKETS IN 2007-2008SPY - SPDR S&P 500 TRUST ETFFrom August 17, 2007 to July 3, 2008: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust depreciated -20.12%The State Street Corporation designed SPY for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Stock Index. According to State Street’s website www.ssga.com, the Benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, comprises selected stocks from five hundred (500) issuers, all of which are listed on national stock exchanges and span over approximately 24 separate industry groups.DBC – INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACING FUND ETFFrom August 17 2007 to July 3, 2008: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund appreciated +96.81%Invesco designed DBC for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in commodity futures. According to Invesco’s website www.invesco.com, the Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on 14 of the most heavily traded and important physical commodities in the world.BE ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY MEETING IS THIS WEEK!In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the most significant contributors to the CPI gain. The consumer price index is the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its policy meeting this week, March 15-16. However, given the recent world events of the Russia – Ukraine war in Europe, the FED may decide to be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points.HOW WILL RISING INTEREST RATES AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET?As interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive. Rising interest rates tend to affect the market immediately, while it may take about 9-12 months for the rest of the economy to see any widespread impact. Higher interest rates are generally negative for stocks, with the exception of the financial sector.WILL RISING INTEREST RATES BURST OUR HOUSING BUBBLE?It is too soon to tell exactly what the impact of rising interest rates will be regarding housing. It is worth noting that in a thriving economy, consumers continue buying. However, in our current economy, where the consumers' monthly payment is not keeping up with the price of gasoline and food, it is more likely to experience a leveling off of residential prices or even the risk of a 2007-2009 repeat of price depreciation.THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTSIZED GAINS IN A BEAR MARKET ARE 7X GREATER THAN A BULL MARKET!The average bull market lasts 2.7 years. From the March low of 2009, the current bull market has established a new record as the longest-running bull market at 12 years and nine months. The average bear market lasts just under ten months, while a few have lasted for several years. It is worth noting that bear markets tend to fall 7x faster than bull markets go up. Bear markets also reflect elevated levels of volatility and investor emotions which contribute significantly to the velocity of the market drop.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe havens.IT'S TIME TO GET PREPARED FOR THE COMING STORM; UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE THESE TYPES OF MARKETS!I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

EURUSD struggles to rebound The US dollar bounces across the board as the Fed may possibly raise interest rates on Wednesday. The pair found support near May 2020’s lows around 1.0800. The RSI’s oversold condition on the daily chart prompted the bears to take some chips off the table, alleviating the pressure. 1.1110 is a fresh resistance and its breach could lift offers to 1.1270. In fact, this could turn sentiment around in the short term. Failing that, a break below 1.0830 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards March 2020’s lows near 1.0650. AUDUSD lacks support The Australian dollar slipped after dovish RBA minutes. The pair continues to pull back from its recent top at 0.7430. A drop below the demand zone at 0.7250 further puts the bulls on the defensive. The former support has turned into a resistance level. 0.7170 at the origin of a previous breakout is key support. An oversold RSI may raise buyers’ interest in this congestion area. A deeper correction could invalidate the recent rebound and send the Aussie to the daily support at 0.7090. GER 40 attempts to rebound The Dax 40 edges higher as Russia and Ukraine hold a fourth round of talks. The index bounced off the demand zone (12500) from the daily chart, a sign that price action could be stabilizing. The supply zone around the psychological level of 14000 sits next to the 20-day moving average, making it an important hurdle. A tentative breakout may have prompted sellers to cover. 14900 would be the target if the rebound gains momentum. On the downside, 13300 is fresh support, and 12720 is the second line of defense.

GameStop stock is back on the top trending list but still struggling. GME stock is down 43% year to date. GameStop releases earnings on Thursday after the close. GameStop (GME) is back on the top trending lists, though it has not been seen for a while. Some other stocks have taken the limelight, recently some micro-cap oil stocks, but these have gone back to sleep now as the crowd moves on. GameStop was the original though, and it releases earnings after the close on Thursday. This is generating some attention on the usual social media sites and helping the GME stock price too. At the time of writing, GME stock is up 1.4% at $79.05. GameStop Stock News GameStop earnings are out after the close with a conference call afterward. GME is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.84 and revenue of $2.22 billion. This would be a marked improvement on Q3 earnings, which it reported on December 8. Back then EPS was forecast at $-0.52 but came in way behind at $-1.39. Revenue came in ahead of forecasts back then too. GME lost 10% the day after its Q3 earnings. We remain bearish on GME stock though and cannot argue against the current trend. The stock has lost 65% over the last nine months and has been on a one-way spiral. The current environment is punishing high growth stocks, and the recent spike in yields will only add to that. It needs blockbuster earnings on Thursday from GME to change that sentiment. GME still trades on a very high multiple compared to other consumer stocks, and rising inflation will hurt. GameStop is also a high street store. It pays wages, electricity, etc., all of which are rising and will continue to do so. GameStop Stock Forecast GME stock closed below our key support at $86 on Monday. This will likely lead to more selling pressure. That will bring GME quickly down to $70, and we may then see a stabilization period as volume is quite strong around the $70 level. GameStop (GME) stock chart, daily    

  In line with predictions, gold is ceasing to benefit from war-fueled uncertainty. Meanwhile, silver faked another breakout. Could it be more bearish?  Last week’s powerful, huge-volume reversal in gold was likely to be followed by declines. It was – but that’s just the beginning. Yesterday’s $24 decline might seem significant on a day-to-day basis, but compared to last week’s enormous reversal, it’s really tiny. The modest extent of yesterday’s decline is by no means bullish – my emphasis on the small size of the decline so far should be viewed as an indication that much more is likely on the horizon. Besides, gold was down by about $20 in today’s pre-market trading. As I wrote yesterday, gold’s breakout above $2,000 was officially invalidated, and given the weekly reversal, it seems that the war-uncertainty-based rally is over. The decisive move below 70 in the RSI indicator after it was trading above 70 clearly confirms that the top is already behind us. Just like it was in 2020 and 2021 when similar things happened, history appears to have rhymed. On Friday, I wrote the following: Gold’s move of $0.40 (yes, forty cents) above $2,000 is not important as the breakout above this level was just invalidated the previous day. Technically, this is another attempt to break above this level, which is likely to be invalidated based on what we see in today’s pre-market trading. The fact that I would like to emphasize today is that this kind of small rebound after the initial slide is common and perfectly normal for gold. We saw exactly the same thing right after gold’s 2020 top and after its 2021 top, and also two more times in 2021 (as marked on the above chart). This means that yesterday’s upswing is not particularly bullish. It’s a normal post-top reaction. Lower gold values are to be expected. Silver declined yesterday, and it closed the day below its late-2021 high. In other words, the breakout above this level was invalidated. This is a strong bearish confirmation from the white metal. The white metal just invalidated the move above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. That’s bearish on its own, but let’s keep in mind that it happened right after silver outperformed gold. Last Tuesday, the GDXJ ETF was up by less than 1%, gold was up by 2.37%, and silver was up by 4.57%. Silver’s outperformance and miners’ underperformance is what we tend to see right at the tops. That’s exactly what it was – a top. Silver declined profoundly, and the attempt to break above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level will soon be just a distant (in terms of price) memory. On a medium-term basis, silver was simply weak relative to gold, but we saw short-term outperformance. In short, that was and continues to be bearish. As far as silver’s big picture is concerned, please note that it also provides us with a confirmation of the analogy between 2012 and now. At the turn of the year in 2011/2012, there was a cyclical turning point in silver, and we saw a sizable decline in silver shortly thereafter. The same happened in 2021, after silver’s cyclical turning point. Back in 2012, silver declined more or less to its previous lows and then rallied back up, but it didn’t reach its previous top. It more or less rallied to its 50-week moving average and then by about the same amount before topping. Recently, we saw exactly the same thing. After the initial decline, silver bottomed close to its previous lows, and most recently it rallied to its 50-week moving average and then by about the same amount before topping – below the previous high. Thus, the situation is just like what it was during the 2012 top in all three key components of the precious metals sector: gold, silver, and mining stocks. We have a situation in the general stock market that points to an even quicker slide than what we saw in 2012-2013. If stocks slide sharply and significantly just like in 2008, then the same fate may await the precious metals sector – just like in 2008. In this case, silver and mining stocks (in particular, junior mining stocks) would be likely to fall in a spectacular manner. All the above was confirmed by silver’s invalidation of its breakout above the late-2021 high. Not only has the medium-term outlook been bearish, but now the short-term outlook for silver is bearish too. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  It seems that the stalemate in Ukraine has slowed down gold's bold movements. Will the Fed's decision on interest rates revive them again?  The tragedy continues. As United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said yesterday, “Ukraine is on fire and being decimated before the eyes of the world.” There have already been 1,663 civilian casualties since the Russian invasion began. What is comforting in this situation is that Russian troops have made almost no advance in recent days (although there has been some progress in southern Ukraine). They are attempting to envelop Ukrainian forces in the east of the country as they advance from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to offer staunch resistance across the country. So, it seems that there is a kind of stalemate. The Russians don’t have enough forces to break decisively through the Ukrainian defense, while Ukraine’s army doesn’t have enough troops to launch an effective counteroffensive and get rid of the occupiers. Now, the key question is: in whose favor is time working? On the one hand, Russia is mobilizing fighters from its large country, but also from Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. The invaders continue indiscriminate shelling and air attacks that cause widespread destruction among civilian population as well. On the other hand, each day Russian army suffers heavy losses, while Ukraine is getting new weapons from the West.   Implications for Gold How is gold performing during the war? As the chart below shows, the recent stabilization of the military situation in Ukraine has been negative for the yellow metal. The price of gold slid from its early March peak of $2,039 to $1,954 one week later (and today, the price is further declining). However, please note that gold makes higher highs and higher lows, so the outlook remains rather positive, although corrections are possible. On the other hand, gold’s slide despite the ongoing war and a surge in inflation could be a little disturbing. However, the reason for the decline is simple. It seems that the uncertainty reached its peak last week and has eased since then. As the chart below shows, the CBOE volatility index, also called a fear index, has retreated from its recent peak. The Russian troops have made almost no progress, the most severe response of the West is probably behind us, and the world hasn’t sunk into nuclear war. Meanwhile, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are taking place, offering some hope for a relatively quick end to the war. As I wrote last week, “there might be periods of consolidation and even corrections if the conflict de-escalates or ends.” The anticipation of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could also contribute to the slide in gold prices. However, the chart above also shows that credit spreads, another measure of risk perception, have continued to widen in recent days. Other fundamental factors also remain supportive of gold prices. Let’s take, for instance, inflation. As the chart below shows, the annual CPI rate has soared from 7.5% in January to 7.9% in February, the largest move since January 1982. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, surged from 6.0% to 6.4% last month, also the highest reading in forty years. The war in Ukraine can only add to the inflationary pressure. Prices of oil and other commodities have already soared. The supply chains got another blow. The US Congress is expanding its spending again to help Ukraine. Thus, the inflation peak would likely occur later than previously thought. High inflation may become more embedded, which increases the odds of stagflation. All these factors seem to be fundamentally positive for gold prices. There is one “but”. The continuous surge in inflation could prompt monetary hawks to take more decisive actions. Tomorrow, the FOMC will announce its decision on interest rates, and it will probably hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The hawkish Fed could be bearish for gold prices. Having said that, historically, the Fed’s tightening cycle has been beneficial to the yellow metal when accompanied by high inflation. Last time, the price of gold bottomed out around the liftoff. Another issue is that, because of the war in Ukraine, the Fed could adopt a more dovish stance and lift interest rates in a more gradual way, which could be supportive of gold prices. The military situation in Ukraine and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could be crucial for gold’s path in the near future. The hike in interest rates is already priced in, but the fresh dot-plot and Powell’s press conference could bring us some unexpected changes in US monetary policy. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Bitcoin is needed as an alternative   The weakened US-Dollar and the present unexpected climate seems not being fully reflected in bitcoin´s price. Consequently, bitcoin prices could soar in the not too distant future. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, bottom building: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. A phenomenon in times of crisis is that individuals look for absolutes or extremes to resolve difficult circumstances. We instead advocate a more principle-based process of solving problems, an approach of choices. Regarding wealth preservation, this would mean gold and silver alongside bitcoin. The daily chart of the bitcoin/gold-ratio shows the bottom building after a downtrend. Currently, one can purchase a bitcoin for twenty ounces of gold. Nearly half as much as five months ago. Indeed, an opportunity to rotate one’s precious metal holding partially into a cheap bitcoin acquisition.     Bitcoin, monthly chart, in waiting position: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 15th, 2022. War inherently divides nations, and that does not mean limiting only the ones directly in conflict with each other. It is this divide that, in addition, fuels the competition for each nation to be first in their digital currency release. Sanctioned countries have limited access to the US-Dollar. Consequently, they are highly motivated to create an alternate payment method. The monthly chart is not showing this fundamental support for bitcoin. Early signs of a triangle show that we find likely to break to the upside. Slow stochastic indicator reading (A) shows that the last time around at these levels, a strong up move followed. Similar to the yellow CCI turbo line-level reading (B). Before such a move, we witnessed a quick price spike down (C), which would be no surprise. Bitcoin, weekly chart, bitcoin as an alternative is needed: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 15th, 2022. Zooming into the weekly time frame, we can make out the battle between bulls and bears in more detail. Over the last three weeks, prices were rejected above the POC (point of control = high volume node, where our volume profile analysis ranges over the previous fifteen months). As well, price behavior is reflecting the war climate’s uncertainty. At the same time, the bulls have held steady any attempt of the bears trying to push prices below US$37,500. Hence, we should see a substantial move once trading snaps out of this “magnet trading” to the high-volume node. Bitcoin, daily chart, gains and volatility: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 15th, 2022. The daily chart of bitcoin above describes how we see the future unfold. We anticipate the price to reach all-time highs within the upcoming month. Unfortunately, not in bitcoins typical swing trading manner. We foresee a choppy, volatile market. Consequently, short and midterm trading will be challenging. Stepping up in time frame is a helpful approach to avoid the noise. Bitcoin is needed as an alternative: Governments will try to keep their monopolies and power. However, we don’t think that the adoption of a digital dollar by the masses will not be that easy. We find this especially true to be in a highly transitory time of rapid changes and many challenges. Typically, multiple propaganda waves through media have bridged such doubt but might have lost some of its trustworthiness. Consequently, bitcoin has a fair chance for mass adoption just as well. It already has a history and carries inherent features of freedom that people might long for more than anticipated.   Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 15th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

S&P 500 decline was led by tech, and made possible by credit markets‘ plunge. The 4,160s held on a closing basis, and unless the bulls clear this area pretty fast today, this key support would come under pressure once again over the nearest days. Interestingly, the dollar barely moved, but looking at the daily sea of red across commodities, the greenback would follow these to the downside. Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed, regardless of: (…) not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving before Q2 ends, the markets continue forcing higher rates (reflecting inflation). The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bears won the day, and are likely to regroup next – yes, that doesn‘t rule out a modest upswing that would then fizzle out. Credit Markets HYG woes continue, and credit markets keep raising rates for the Fed. The bears continue having the upper hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals haven‘t found the short-term bottom, but it pays to remember that they are often trading subdued before the Fed days. This is no exception, and I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious Fed tone. Crude Oil Crude oil didn‘t keep above $105, but would revert there in spite of the stagflationary environment (already devouring Europe). With more clarity in the various oil benchmarks, black gold would continue rising over the coming weeks. Copper Copper weakness is another short-term oddity, which I am looking for to be reversed in the FOMC‘s wake. Volume had encouragingly risen yesterday, so I‘m looking for a solid close to the week. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are very modestly turning higher, but I‘m not expecting too much of a run next. As stated yesterday, I wouldn‘t call it as risk-on constellation throughout the markets. Summary S&P 500 got into that precarious position (4,160s) yesterday, but managed to hold above. Given the usual Fed days trading pattern, stocks are likely to bounce a little before the pronouncements are made – only to continue drifting lower in their wake. That‘s valid for the central bank not making the U-turn towards easing again, which is what I‘m expecting to happen in the latter half of this year. Inflation would continue biting, and that means stocks are mired in a giant trading range a la the 1970s. Commodities and precious metals would continue building a base here, only to launch higher in response to (surprise, surprise) stubborn inflation. After all, where else to hide in during stagflations? Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

As shown here, solana is at the tip of the falling wedge pattern. The question here is, “will solana break out of the falling wedge to the upward direction or downward?” What do you think? Share your opinion in the comment section You can also demand for analysis of your preferred coin Happy Trading https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SOLUSDT/SVxW6fBz-SOLANA-AT-BREAKOUT-POINT/ Join my FREE Telegram Channel for daily updates and signals https://t.me/Petrock_Signals

USDCHF breaks major resistance The US dollar continues upward as the Fed is set to increase its interest rates by 25bp. The rally sped up after it cleared the daily resistance at 0.9360. The bullish breakout may have ended a 9-month long consolidation from the daily chart perspective. The rising trendline confirms the optimism and acts as an immediate support. Solid momentum could propel the greenback to April 2021’s high at 0.9470. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to jump in. 0.9330 is the closest support should this happen. EURGBP tests key resistance The sterling found support after a drop in Britain’s unemployment rate in January. A break above the daily resistance at 0.8400 has prompted sellers to cover, easing the downward pressure. Sentiment remains downbeat unless buyers push the single currency past 0.8475. In turn, this could pave the way for a reversal in the weeks to come. Otherwise, the bears might double down and drive the euro back into its downtrend. A fall below 0.8360 would force early bulls to liquidate and trigger a sell-off to 0.8280. USOIL drops towards key support WTI crude falls back over a new round of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine. Previously, a bearish RSI divergence indicated a loss of momentum as the price went parabolic. Then a steep fall below 107.00 was a sign of liquidation. Buyers continue to unwind their positions as the price slides back to its pre-war level. The psychological level of 90.00 is an important support on the daily chart. An oversold RSI may attract buying interest in this demand zone. 105.00 is the first resistance before buyers could regain control.

BTC added 1.4% over the past day to $39.3K. Attempts to develop an offensive ran into a selling wall. The most important line of defense in the first cryptocurrency at the 38.0K area is still more confident withstanding all bear attacks. Ethereum added 3.1% to $2.6K in 24 hours. Other leading altcoins range from a 6% decline (Terra) to a 4.5% rise (Polkadot). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 1.4%, to $1.75 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index lost 0.1 percentage points to 42.6%. Cryptocurrency fear and greed index added 3 points to 24, although it remains in the territory of "extreme fear". The FxPro Analyst Team mentioned that during the Asian session, there was a sharp jump in the rate from $39.2K to $41.7K, followed by an almost equally rapid pullback to the area below $39.0K. Stop orders were triggered in the morning low-liquid market, but it is clear that the selling pressure remains huge. In fact, since February 10, the rises in the Bitcoin rate have become less and less long and end at ever lower levels. The reason for the jump in prices in early trading in Asia was the statements of official Beijing on support for the markets, which caused a rally in the shares of the region. However, Bitcoin frankly ignored the drawdown of Asian stocks in recent days, so it quickly returned to its place, because other factors have become its key drivers in recent days. Meanwhile, Glassnode believes that bitcoin investors may face a final capitulation. This is indicated by the high proportion of "unprofitable" coins among short-term holders. At the same time, the uncertainty associated with geopolitics and the Fed rate weakened the accumulation of BTC by hodlers and caused an increase in sales on their part.

S&P 500 is turning around, and odds are that would be so till the FOMC later today. The pressure on Powell to be really dovish, is on. I‘m looking for a lot of uncerrtainty and flexibility introduction, and much less concrete rate hikes talk that wasn‘t sufficient to crush inflation when the going was relatively good, by the way.As stated yesterday:(…) The rising tide of fundamentals constellation favoring higher real asset prices, would continue kicking in, especially when the markets sense a more profound Fed turn than we saw lately with the 50bp into 25bp for Mar FOMC. Make no mistake, the inflation horse has left the barn well over a year ago, and doesn‘t intend to come back or be tamed.Not that real assets including precious metals would be reversing on a lasting basis here – the markets are content that especially black gold keeps flowing at whatever price, to whatever buyer(s) willing to clinch the deal. Sure, it‘s exerting downward pressure on the commodity, but I‘m looking for the extraordinary weakness to be reversed.We‘re seeing such a reversal in commodities already, and precious metals have a „habit“ of joining around the press conference. Yesterday‘s performance of miners and copper, provides good enough a hint.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 upswing looks like it can go on for a while. Interestingly, it was accompanied by oil stocks declining – have we seen THE risk-on turn? This looks to be a temporary reprieve unless the Fed really overdelivers in dovishness.Credit MarketsHYG is catching some bid, and credit markets are somewhat supporting the risk-on turn. Yields though don‘t look to have put in a top just yet, which means the stock market bears would return over the coming days.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals are looking very attractive, and the short-term bottom appears at hand – this is the way they often trade before the Fed. I‘m fully looking for gold and silver to regain initiative following the cautious and dovish Fed tone.Crude OilCrude oil didn‘t test the 50-day moving average, and I would expect the bulls to step in here – after all, the Fed can‘t print oil, and when they go dovish, the economy just doesn‘t crash immediately...CopperCopper is refusing to decline, and the odd short-term weakness would be reversed – and the same goes for broader commodities, which have been the subject of my recent tweet.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t fully risk-on, but cautiously giving the bulls benefit of the doubt. Not without a pinch of salt, though.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are on the (short-term) run, and definitely need more fuel from the Fed. Significant dovish turn – they would get some, but it wouldn‘t be probably enough to carry risk-on trades through the weekend. The upswing is likely to stall before that, and commodities with precious metals would catch a fresh bid already today. This would be coupled with the dollar not making any kind of upside progress to speak of. The true Fed turn towards easing is though far away still (more than a few months away) – the real asset trades are about patience and tide working in the buyers favor. The yield curve remains flat as a pancake, and more stagflation talk isn‘t too far...Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Crude oil continues to decline due to lowered demand, and the petrodollar seems threatened, losing interest. What is the best strategy to take now?  Oil prices kept falling this week, driven by potential progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and a potential slowdown in the Giant Panda’s (China) economic growth due to epidemic lockdowns in some regions where a surge of Omicron was observed. As I mentioned in my previous article, India considers getting Russian crude oil supplies and other commodities at a reduced price by settling transactions through a rupee/rouble payment system. Meanwhile, we keep getting rumors – notably reported by The Wall Street Journal – that Saudi Arabia and China are also currently discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports directly in yuan. The Chinese are actively seeking to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and this latest development suggests that the petrodollar is now under threat. US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) CFD (daily chart) The recent correction in crude oil, happening just seven days after reaching its 14-year highs, might show some signs that the conflict in Ukraine will slow down consumption. On the other hand, if Iranian and Venezuelan barrels flooded the market, we could see crude oil, petroleum products, and distillates turning into new bear markets. WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) That’s all folks for today – happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XAUUSD stabilizes Gold struggles as the Fed maps out aggressive tightening. The precious metal has given up all its gains from the previous parabolic rise, which suggests a lack of commitment to support the rally. The price is testing the origin of the bullish breakout at 1907 which coincides with the 30-day moving average. An oversold RSI attracted some buying interest. 1961 is the hurdle ahead before a rebound could materialize. Further down, 1880 is key support on the daily chart and its breach could reverse the course in the weeks to come. NZDUSD attempts rebound The New Zealand dollar found support from a rebound in commodity prices. The pair saw solid bids in the demand zone around 0.6725 and right over the 30-day moving average. A bullish RSI divergence showed a deceleration in the pullback, which would have caught buyers’ attention in this congestion area. A close above 0.6800 has prompted short-term sellers to cover and leave the door open for a rebound. 0.6870 is the last major resistance and a bullish breakout could propel the kiwi past the recent peak at 0.6920. CADJPY breaks key resistance The Canadian dollar shot higher after February’s CPI beat expectations. A break above last October’s high at 93.00 could be an ongoing signal to end a 5-month long consolidation. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area may temporarily hold the bulls back. As sentiment turns overwhelmingly upbeat, buyers may be eager to jump in at a discounted price. The supply-turned-demand zone near 91.60 is an important level to safeguard the breakout. The psychological level of 94.00 could see resistance.

AMC stock gains on Tuesday as equities and growth stocks rally. More gains are likely on Wednesday for AMC shares as peace hopes rise for Ukraine. AMC Entertainment also saw increased attention from its investment in Hycroft Mining. AMC shares are up 8% to $15.65 as better prospects for peace in Ukraine seem to be lifting up the entire market. The Nasdaq has risen an optimistic 2.7% about one hour into Wednesday's session. Further positivity is in motion with the start of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee two-day meeting that is expected to usher in a 25 basis point rise in the fed funds rate. The rise in interest rates should slow this year's hike in inflation. This price action is certainly exciting for AMC apes, who have witnessed AMC stock drop to the low $13s earlier this week. AMC Entertainment did benefit in Tuesday's afternoon session from its acquisition of Hycroft Mining, but it seems the stock is gaining more interest on Wednesday for this buy. Now its acquisition target, HYMC, has seen its shares go in the opposite direction on Wednesday. HYMC stock is trading down 9% at $1.37 at the time of writing. AMC stock closed higher on Tuesday as investors took comfort from the continued collapse in oil prices and hoped for some form of peace in Ukraine. It was oil that was the big driver for equity markets, and growth stock, in particular, bounced hard as this sector had seen the bigger losses since the year began. It is hard to see guess whether this movie can be sustained long term though as yields have once again moved up. This should stall growth stocks. A peace deal would see further gains for all sectors, but then these may be capped if yields keep rising. The Fed decision later on Wednesday will give us more clarity on this. AMC Stock News The big news yesterday though for AMC apes was the investment in Hycroft Mining by AMC. This was right out of left field and remains a puzzling one to say the least. Hycroft Mining is a gold and silver miner with one mine in Nevada. The company has not turned a profit since 2013 and last November said it may need to raise capital to meet future financial obligations. The company also laid off over half of its workforce at the mine last November. This is a pretty high-risk investment and perhaps AMC and AMC apes are used to that. It was only a small outlet as CEO adam Aron alluded to. Nevertheless, the Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock price soared as retail investors piled into the name. By the opening of the regular session on Tuesday, HYMC stock was trading nearly 100% higher, but it closed only 9% higher at $1.52 having traded up to $2.97. The reason for the dramatic turnaround was probably a bit of reality set into investors once they had a look at Hycroft Mining and its financial condition. The main reason was a Bloomberg report saying that Hycroft Mining could do a $500 million share sale by as early as next Tuesday. We understand the sale is ongoing and being led by B.Riley Securities. AMC Stock Forecast We were quite negative on this deal on Tuesday and remain so. At least it is not a big investment for AMC, but it still reads poorly. This will not endear AMC stock to further credibility in our view. CNBC carried out a report yesterday about the surge in price and volume trading in HYMC stock before the AMC announcement: "Small mining firm with troubled history saw big spikes in stock price, trading volume ahead of AMC deal." Tuesday's move took AMC back up to our resistance level at $14.54, which was a key breakdown level. Below this and AMC remains bearish. Above $14.54 is neutral. We remain bearish on AMC with a target price of $8.95. AMC stock chart, daily Prior Update: AMC stock opened higher on Wednesday as the stock market remains on edge over the potential for some form of a peace deal in Ukraine. Oil prices falling sharply has also helped investor sentiment. AMC is currently trading at $14.77 for a gain of exactly 2% after 5 minutes of the regular session on Tuesday. Hycroft Mining (HYMC) stock is trading 4% lower at the same stage on Wednesday. Later we get the Fed interest rate decision which may hamper more progress from growth stocks but for now, it is full steam ahead. AMC is back among the top trending stocks on social media sites and interest seems high. $14.54 remains a key level for AMC to hold above if it wants to have put a bottom formation in place. Otherwise, it will return to the bearish trend and look to target $8.95 in our view.

THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX HAS DROPPED MORE THAN 40% FROM ITS PEAK IN JUST 2 ½ MONTHS! China Stocks: This morning bottom pickers around the globe are snatching up what they believe to be “bargain basement priced stocks” as the Hang Seng Index gained 9.1% during today’s March 16, 2022 trading session. It was the best day for the HSI since the 2008 financial crisis as the Chinese government pledged to support markets. Tensions are running high as Chinese nickel giant Tsingshan Holding Group, the world’s biggest producer of nickel used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries was sitting on $8 billion in trading losses. According to the Wall Street Journal on March 9, 2022 “The London Metal Exchange suspended the nickel market early last Tuesday, the first time it had paused trading in a metal contract since the collapse of an international tin cartel in 1985. The decision followed a near doubling in prices over a few hours.” ETFs CAN BE USED SPECIFICALLY FOR SEASONS AND DIRECTION! According to Statista www.statista.com on January 11, 2022, the assets managed by ETFs globally amounted to approximately 7.74 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020. With more than 8,000 ETFs to choose from, you can find just about any flavor you need or are looking for. A Kondratieff Wave is a long-term economic cycle that consists of four sub-cycles or phases that are also known as Kondratieff Seasons. This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratieff 1892-1938 (also spelled “Kondratiev”), a communist Russia-era economist who noticed agricultural commodities and metals experienced long-term cycles. The following graph illustrates both the inflation cycle as well as the best investments for each season. The Kondratieff Seasons act as a general guide and each investment has their own specific bull or bear market cycle. ETFs CAN OFFER YOU PROTECTION AND AGILITY IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET!  The following ETFs are not a recommendation to buy or sell but simply an illustration to emphasize the utilization of selecting an ETF for capital protection or potential appreciation in either a rising ‘BULL’ or falling ‘BEAR’ market. YINN – DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA STOCKS BULL 3X SHARES ETF From February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2022 the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF ‘YINN’ lost -90.78%. Target Index: The FTSE China 50 Index (TXINOUNU) consists of the 50 largest and most liquid public Chinese companies currently trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as determined by the FTSE/Russell. Constituents in the Index are weighted based on total market value so that companies with larger total market values will generally have a greater weight in the Index. Index constituents are screened for liquidity, and weightings are capped to limit the concentration of any one stock in the Index. However, one cannot directly invest in an index. According to Direxion’s website www.direxion.com, Leveraged and Inverse ETFs pursue leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives that do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying index over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. YANG – DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA STOCKS BEAR 3X SHARES ETF From February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2022, The Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3x Shares ETF gained +418.38%. The rates of return shown for the YINN and YANG ETFs are not precise in that they are an estimation as displayed on a chart utilizing the charts measurement tool to emphasize my talking point. Sign up for my free Trading Newsletter to navigate potential major market opportunities! ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE WAS RASIED A QUARTER POINT! In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was still the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the biggest contributors to the CPI gain. The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points. However, investors are speculating that due to the Russia – Ukraine war, the FED may be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points. WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS with US and CHINA STOCKS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe-havens. UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE OUR VOLATILE MARKETS! GET READY, GET SET, GO -I invite you to learn more about how my three ETF Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

  The Fed will want to keep inflation under control, and that could have miserable consequences for gold and miners. Will we see a repeat from 2008?  The question one of my subscribers asked me was about the rise in mining stocks and gold and how it was connected to what was happening in bond yields. Precisely, while short-term and medium-term yields moved higher, very long-term yields (the 30-year yields) dropped, implying that the Fed will need to lower the rates again, indicating a stagflationary environment in the future. First of all, I agree that stagflation is likely in the cards, and I think that gold will perform similarly to how it did during the previous prolonged stagflation – in the 1970s. In other words, I think that gold will move much higher in the long run. However, the market might have moved ahead of itself by rallying yesterday. After all, the Fed will still want to keep inflation under control (reminder: it has become very political!), and it will want commodity prices to slide in response to the foregoing. This means that the Fed will still likely make gold, silver, and mining stocks move lower in the near term. In particular, silver and mining stocks are likely to decline along with commodities and stocks, just like what happened in 2008. Speaking of commodities, let’s take a look at what’s happening in copper. Copper invalidated another attempt to move above its 2011 high. This is a very strong technical sign that copper (one of the most popular commodities) is heading lower in the medium term. Yes, it might be difficult to visualize this kind of move given the recent powerful upswing, but please note that it’s in perfect tune with the previous patterns. The interest rates are going up, just like they did before the 2008 slide. What did copper do before the 2008 slide? It failed to break above the previous (2006) high, and it was the failure of the second attempt to break higher that triggered the powerful decline. What happened then? Gold declined, but silver and mining stocks truly plunged. The GDXJ was not trading at the time, so we’ll have to use a different proxy to see what this part of the mining stock sector did. The Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Index includes multiple junior mining stocks. It also includes other companies, but juniors are a large part of it, and they truly plunged in 2008. In fact, they plunged in a major way after breaking below their medium-term support lines and after an initial corrective upswing. Guess what – this index is after a major medium-term breakdown and a short-term corrective upswing. It’s likely ready to fall – and to fall hard. So, what’s likely to happen? We’re about to see a huge slide, even if we don’t see it within the next few days. In fact, the outlook for the next few days is rather unclear, as different groups of investors can interpret yesterday’s developments differently. However, once the dust settles, the precious metals sector is likely to go down significantly. Gold is up in today’s pre-market trading, but please note that back in 2020, after the initial post-top slide, gold corrected even more significantly, and it wasn’t really bullish. This time gold doesn’t have to rally to about $2,000 before declining once again, as this time the rally was based on war, and when we consider previous war-based rallies (U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, U.S. invasion of Iraq, Russia’s invasion of Crimea), we know that when the fear-and-uncertainty-based top was in, then the decline proceeded without bigger corrections. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

GBPUSD attempts to rebound The British pound stalled after the BOE failed to secure a unanimous vote for higher rates. A bullish RSI divergence suggests exhaustion in the sell-off, and combined with the indicator’s oversold condition on the daily chart, may attract buying interest. A tentative break above 1.3190 led some sellers to take profit. The bulls will need to push above the 1.3250 next to the 20-day moving average to get a foothold. On the downside, the psychological level of 1.3000 is a critical floor to keep the current rebound valid. USDJPY takes a breather The Japanese yen struggles as the BOJ pledges to stick with stimulus. Sentiment turned extremely bullish after the pair rallied above December 2016’s high at 118.60. The RSI went overbought on both hourly and daily charts, and the overextension could refrain buyers from chasing bids. Trend followers may be waiting to buy at pullbacks. 117.70 is the first level to gauge buying interest and 116.80 is the second line of support. A rebound above 119.00 would extend gains beyond the psychological level of 120.00. SPX 500 tests resistance The S&P 500 bounced higher after Russia averted a bond default. Price action has stabilized above last June’s lows around 4140 where a triple bottom indicates a strong interest in keeping the index afloat. A previous attempt above 4350 forced sellers to cover but hit resistance at 4420. A bullish close above this key level on the daily chart could trigger a runaway rally. 4590 would be the next target when sentiment turns around. Otherwise, a lack of conviction from the buy-side would send the index to test 4250.

S&P 500 extended gains, and the risk appetite in bonds carried over into value rising faster than tech. Given the TLT downswing though, it‘s all but rainbows and unicorns ahead today. Not only that quad witching would bring high volume and chop, VIX itself doesn‘t look to slide smoothly below 25 today. Friday‘s ride would be thus rocky, and affected by momentum stalling in both tech and value. Real assets though can and will enjoy the deserved return into the spotlight. With much of the preceding downswing being based on deescalation hopes (that aren‘t materializing, still), the unfolding upswing in copper, oil and precious metals (no, they aren‘t to be spooked by the tough Fed tightening talk) would happen at a more measured pace than had been the case recently. Pay attention to the biting inflation, surrounding blame games hinting at no genuine respite – read through the rich captions of today‘s chart analyses, and think about reliable stores of real value. And of course, enjoy the open profits. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 looks likely to consolidate as the 4,400 – 4,450 zone would be tough to overcome, and such a position relative to both the moving averages shown, has historically stopped quite a few steep recoveries off very negative sentiment readings. Credit Markets HYG is likely to slow down here, as in really stall and face headwinds. The run had been respectable, and much of the easy gains happened already yesterday. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals upswing did indeed return – and the miners performance doesn‘t hint at a swift return of the bears, to put it mildly. The path to $1950s is open. Crude Oil Crude oil bottom was indeed in, and the price can keep recovering towards $110s and beyond. No, the economy isn‘t crashing yet, monetary policy isn‘t forcing that outcome, and the drawing of petroleum reserves is a telltale sign of upside price pressures mounting. It‘ll be an interesting April, mark my words. Copper Copper is duly rebounding, and not at all overheated. The move is also in line with other base metals. My yesterday‘s target of $4.70 has already been reached – I‘m looking for a measured pace of gains to continue. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking a small break, highlighting the perils of today. The boat won‘t be rocked too much. Summary S&P 500 bulls made the easy gains already yesterday, and today‘s session is going to be volatile, even treacherous in establishing a clear and lasting direction (i.e. choppy), and the headwinds would be out there in the plain open. These would come from bonds not continuing in the risk-on turn convincingly rather than commodities and metals surging head over heels. Both tech and value would feel the heat as VIX would show signs of waking up (to some degree). Today‘s session won‘t change the big picture dynamics of late, and I invite you to read more in-depth commentary within the individual market sections of today‘s full analysis. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  St. Patrick’s Day is historically considered among the best trading days. Apparently, judging by the results, it may have brought some luck to natural gas. If you are interested in looking at the stats, an article by Market Watch summed them up. The second target hit – BOOM! Yesterday, on St. Patrick's Day, the opportunity to bank the extra profits from my recent Nat-Gas trade projections (provided on March 2) finally arrived. That trade plan has provided traders with multiple bounces to trade the NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (April contract) in various ways, always depending on each one’s personal risk profile. To get some more explanatory details on understanding the different trading ways this fly map (trading plan) could offer, I invite you to read my previous article (from March 11). To quickly sum it up, the various trade opportunities that could be played were as follows (with the following captures taken on March 11): The first possibility is swing trading, with the trailing stop method explained in my famous risk management article. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, hourly chart) The second option consisted of scalping the rebounds with fixed targets (active or experienced traders). I named this method “riding the tails” (or the shadows). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) The third way is position trading – a more passive trading style (and usually more rewarding). Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) The chart below shows a good overall view of NYMEX Natural Gas hitting our final target, $4.860: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGJ22) Futures (April contract, 4H chart) As you can see, the market has provided us with multiple entries into the same support zone (highlighted by the yellow band) – even after hitting the first target, you may have noticed that I maintained the entry conditions in place – after the suggestion to drag the stop up just below the new swing low ($4.450). The market, still in a bull run, got very close to that point on March 15 by making a new swing low at $4.459 (just about 10 ticks above it). Before that, it firmly rebounded once more (allowing a new/additional entry) and then extended its gains further away while consecutively hitting target 1 ($4.745) again. After that, it finally hit target 2 ($4.860)! That’s all folks for today. It is time to succesfully close this trade. Have a great weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Fed raised interest rate by 25bps so did Bank of England. Data shows that these events haven’t hit major Forex pairs so hard so let’s verify the theory. EUR/USD – A ca. 1.2% Gain The chart shows the week began without significant fluctuations until the Fed decision on March 16th. Immediately after the announcement of the key monetary policy indicator a huge declined stopped the strengthening Euro. The pair even neared the 2% gain level, but during the week has declined again slowly ending it near +1.2%. GBP/USD – Two announcements correlation The week hadn’t began too positively for British pound, but the following days had put GBP back on track to a ca. 1% gain after significant declines shortly after Fed and BoE decisions on accordingly Wednesday and Thursday. EUR/GBP – A ca. 1% Increased Corrected Naturally Fed’s announcement didn’t affect the single currency and British bound heavily, but the Bank of England’s fuelled EUR/GBP almost 1% jump which had been gradually corrected in the following days leaving the pair almost unchanged compared to the 14th March. USD/PLN – exotic pair with interesting outlook There’s no doubt PLN has strengthened throughout the week even if Fed announced the raise of interest rate. The stronger outlook of PLN is surely caused by the previous week’s tightening of monetary policy. EUR/PLN – PLN gained ca. 1.5% Global factors makes the pais with PLN the most interesting ones as another shows a significant loss of Euro To Polish zloty. The following week might bring next tempting fluctuations so let’s keep an eye on this pair.

BTC/USD Bitcoin has added a lot over that week. A 10% gain has remained despite the fact Fed raised interest rate. Gold Gold plunged after the Fed decision, but didn’t crash ending the week with a not so big decline. S&P 500 SPX rally was caused, among others, by Chinese stocks which are said to be back in the game. UK 100 (FTSE 100) The British had its ups and downs this week, but all in all gained ca. 4% at the end of the day (week!)

Starting at a low of US$1,780 on January 28th, gold went up rapidly US$290 within less than six weeks, reaching a short-term top at US$2,070. Since that high on March 8th, however, gold prices fell back even faster. In total, gold plunged a whooping US$175 to a low of US$1,895 in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting. A quick bounce took prices back to around US$1,950, but the weekly close at around US$1,920 came in lower.This volatile roller coaster ride is truly not for the faint of heart. Nevertheless, gold has done well this year, and, despite a looming multi-months correction, it might now be in a setup from which another attack towards US$2,000 could start in the short-term.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 19th, 2022.On the weekly chart, gold prices have been rushing higher with great momentum. For five consecutive weeks, the bulls were able to bend the upper Bollinger band (US$1,963) upwards. However, the final green candle closed far outside the Bollinger bands and looks like a weekly reversal. Consequently, if gold has now dipped into a multi-month correction, a retracement back to the neckline of the broken triangle respectively the inverse head & shoulder pattern in the range of US$1,820 to US$1,850 would be quite typical and to be expected. In this range, the classic 61.8% retracement of the entire wave up (from the low at US$1,678 on August 9th, 2021, to the most recent blow off top at US$2,070) sits at US$1,827.79. The weekly stochastic oscillator has not yet rolled over, but weekly momentum is overbought and vulnerable.In total, the weekly chart shows a big reversal and therefore no longer supports the bullish case. However, it could still take some more time before a potential correction gains momentum.  Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of March 19th, 2022.While the weekly chart may just be at the beginning of a multi-month correction, the overbought setup on the daily chart has already been largely cleared up by the recent steep pullback. Despite Friday’s rather weak closing, the odds are not bad that gold might very soon be turning up again. However, gold bulls need to take out the pivot resistance around US$1,960 to unlock higher price targets in the context of a recovery. The potential Fibonacci retracements are waiting at US$1,962, US$2,003 and US$2,028. Hence, gold could bounce back to approx. US$2,000, which is a round number and therefore a psychological resistance.On the other hand, if gold fails to move back above Thursday’s high at US$1,950, weakness will increase immediately and significantly. In that case, bulls can only hope that the quickly rising lower Bollinger Band (US$1,861) would catch and limit a deeper sell-off. But since the stochastic oscillator has reached its oversold zone, bears might have a hard time pushing gold significantly below US$1,900.Overall, the daily chart is slightly oversold, and gold might start a bounce soon. Conclusion: Potential recovery to approx. US$2,000After a strong rally and a steep pullback, the gold market is likely in the process of reordering. While the weekly timeframe points to a correction, the oversold daily chart points to an immediate bounce. Given these contradictory signals, investors and especially traders are well advised to exercise patience and caution in the coming days, weeks, and months. If gold has entered a corrective cycle, it could easily take until the early to mid-summer before a sustainable new up-trend might emerge.Alternative super bullish scenarioAlternatively, and this of course is still a possible scenario, the breakout from the large “cup and handle” pattern is just getting started. In this very bullish case, gold is in the process of breaking out above US$2,100 to finally complete the very large “cup and handle” pattern, which has been developing for 11 years! Obviously, the sky would then be the limit.To summarize, gold is getting really bullish back above US$2,030. On the other hand, below $US1,895 the bears would be in control. In between those two numbers, the odds favor a bounce towards US$1,960 and maybe USD$2,000.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|March 19th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bearish, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold consolidation, gold fundamentals, Gold sideways, precious metals, Reyna Gold|0 Commentshttps://www.midastouch-consulting.com/gold-chartbook-19032022-potential-recovery-to-approx-us2000About the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

German Index doesn’t shock investors with significant fluctuations despite the fact many countries interact with persistent conflict between Russia and Ukraine. DAX opened only a bit lower than it closed on Friday, March 17th and seems to end the day without any major move. As before we highlight below three companies which have gained the most during today’s session. BMW Bavarian automotive company is today’s leader, as until now it has gained over 2%. BAYN - Bayer Well-known brand associated with medicaments until now has gained over 2% DBK – Deutsche Bank One of the most recongizable banks of the world has gained ca. 2% until now Charts: courtesy of TradingView.com Source: TradingView.com

Sanctions keep affecting the supply diversification. It’s not sure how will the following days shape so civilians, investors and big companies are following, we may say, indefinite fluctuations of Brent and WTI. The price has increased by ca. 20% since the beginning of the war on February 24th. As the chart below shows the price was interacting with the news about crude oil inventories, testimonies of countries’ leaders and all the communication. Crude Oil Price Chart – 24/02-21/03 Today crude oil has gained ca. X% opening higher as the war goes on and there’s no significant signal that it’s coming to an end. Ukrainians don’t surrender in Mariupol and, according to Bloomberg, Kremlin says that consequences of sanctions will seriously impact Europe. Crude Oil Price Chart 21/03/22 – [UPDATE: 14:05 GMT] It’s not sure what can we expect from the following days. A thing we can be sure of is that we should follow the Crude Oil Inventories release on Wednesday. Follow us on Twitter to check the markets’ reaction and don’t miss a thing! Source: Investing.com, Bloomberg.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

Blackberry stock is back trending on retail investment sites after a long break.BB stock was one of the old meme stock favorites from last year.The stock also catches a major investment bank upgrade on Monday.Blackberry shares are back. The BB ticker is once again trending all over social media and retail trading sites after quite a long hiatus in the wilderness. That's break to you and me but my editor likes the fancy words! But Blackberry (BB) is definitely back. It was one of the original stocks caught up in the frenzy of short squeeze speculation last year but dropped off most people's attention lists as the stock was unable to push on and gave up all of its gains. BB stock fell from $20.17 in June 2021 to $5.80 in February 2022. Also read: AMC stock starts Monday with more gainsBlackberry (BB) stock news: Announces 13 channel partners for Jarvis 2.0Blackberry was the go-to business phone in the early 2010 decade before being totally outmaneuvered by the emergence of the smartphone. Holding a Blackberry was a sign that you had made it in the business world but the company and phone went the way of Nokia, totally demolished by Apple and other smartphone makers. But both companies Blackberry and Nokia have struggled along with varying degrees of success. Blackberry caught some renewed attention on Monday as it announced its Jarvis 2.0 testing tool will be offered by 13 partners to companies in the Asia Pacific region. “Asia-Pacific is at a tipping point in how it protects infrastructure and industries against growing IoT security threats as digital automation continues to advance,” said Dhiraj Handa, vice president of BlackBerry QNX for the Asia-Pacific region. Jarvis is a testing tool that allows companies to look for potential branches of security in their systems. "BlackBerry® Jarvis® 2.0 is a software composition analysis and static application security testing solution that is designed to analyze binaries within complex embedded systems. It lets you identify security vulnerabilities in products that have software from multiple sources, without the need for source code. It’s a powerful tool that provides you insights into your binaries and helps you catch potential security issues with the click", from Blackberry. This is timely given the heightened security and hacker issues surrounding many systems and companies are spending increasing amounts of their IT budgets on security issues. Blackberry (BB) stock forecastThis certainly reads positively but it is early days in the process. BB stock price has recovered but remains in a powerful downtrend. The recent spike up to the 50-day moving average is encouraging but only a break of $9.47 would really get momentum back towards bulls. Breaking above $48.50 is the first target and would put BB back in a neutral stance. Above $9.47 BB stock is bullish. The first resistance is the 50-day moving average at $7.41. Blackberry (BB) chart, daily

S&P 500 did really well through quad witching, and the same goes for credit markets. 4-day streak of non-stop gains – very fast ones. Short squeeze characteristics in the short run, makes me think this rally fizzles out before the month ends – 4,600 would hold. We‘re likely to make a higher low next, and that would be followed by 4-6 weeks of rally continuation before the bears come back with real force again. July would present a great buying opportunity in this wild year of a giant trading range. As I wrote yesterday: (…) The paper asset made it through quad witching in style - both stocks and bonds. The risk-on sentiment however didn't sink commodities or precious metals. Wednesday's FOMC brought worries over the Fed sinking real economy growth but Powell's conference calmed down fears through allegedly no recession risks this year, ascribing everything to geopolitics. Very convenient, but the grain of truth is that the Fed wouldn't indeed jeopardize GDP growth this year - that's the context of how to read the allegedly 7 rate hikes and balance sheet shrinking this year still. Not gonna happen as I stated on Thursday already. Such are my short- and medium-term thoughts on stocks. Copper remains best positioned to continue rising with relatively little volatility while crude oil isn‘t yet settled (its good times would continue regardless of the weak volume rally of last two days, which is making me a little worried). Precious metals are still basing, and would continue moving higher best on the Fed underperforming in its hawkish pronouncements. No way they‘re hiking 7 times this year and shrinking balance sheet at the same time as I wrote on Thursday – Treasury yields say they‘ll take on inflation more in 2023. 2022 is a mere warm-up. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 is now past the 4,400 – 4,450 zone, and hasn‘t yet consolidated. This week would definitely though not be as bullish as the one just gone by – the bulls will be challenged a little. Credit Markets HYG eked out more gains, but the air is slowly becoming thinner. As the sentiment turns more bullish through no deep decline over the coming few days, that‘s when junk bonds would start wavering. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals aren‘t turning down for good here – I think they‘re deciphering the Fed story of hiking slower than intended, which in effect gives inflation a new lease on life. Not that it was wavering, though. More upside in gold and silver to come. Crude Oil Crude oil is rising again, but look for a measured upswing that‘s not free from headwinds. While I think we would climb above $110 still, I‘m sounding a more cautious note given the decreasing volume – I would like to see more conviction next. Copper Copper is behaving, and would continue rising reliably alongside other commodities. It‘s also the best play considering downside protection at the moment. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin isn‘t recovering Sunday‘s setback – but the Ethereum upswing bodes well for risk taking today, even that doesn‘t concern cryptos all too much. Summary S&P 500 has a bit more to run before running into headwinds, which would happen still this week. Credit markets are a tad too optimistic, and rising yields would leave a mark especially on tech. Value, energy and materials are likely to do much better. Crude oil is bound to be volatile over the coming weeks, but still rising and spiking – not yet settled. Copper and precious metals present better appreciation opportunities when looking at their upcoming volatility. Within today‘s key analysis, I‘ve covered the path of stocks, so do have a good look at the opening part. Finally, cryptos likewise paint the picture of risk-on trades not being over just yet. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Having added more than 8.2% to Tuesday's lows last week through Friday, S&P500 futures have surpassed the 50-day moving average and are testing the 200-day average by the start of US trading. We mentioned last week that the "death cross" should not be taken as a sell signal this time because it took place after a comparatively long decline. It was a repeat of 2020 when the cross appeared after the market bottomed. The recovery rally of the last week is undergoing an important test. If the S&P500 manages to get above 4500 today or tomorrow, firmly entrenched above the 200-day moving average (currently at 4480), we can confidently talk about breaking the correction. In that case, there is a potential for a quick rally towards 4600 already this week, 4800 over the next 2-3 months, and up to 5000 by the end of 2022. Looking only at the news headlines, the military action in Europe and the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed are not conducive to buyers' optimism. But, paradoxically, we are now in a situation where pessimism has reached or is close to its peak. Managers surveyed by Bank of America note the maximum pessimism since April 2020, which is near historical turning points. The only exception to the last 25 years was in 2007-2008 when pessimistic expectations persisted for an extended period due to banking sector problems. The Fear & Greed Index continues to improve from 16 (extreme fear) a week ago to 40 (fear) now. It has turned solidly around from the extreme lows, but equities are still an impressive distance from the highs at the beginning of the year, which leaves considerable room for growth from current levels. A strong sell-off in US equities from current levels and a consolidation below 4400 on the S&P500 could be a strong bearish signal, indicating an inability for the market to develop the offensive, which risks putting it back into a rapid decline situation.

A subscriber asked us recently where he should be putting his money and how to limit losses in his retirement portfolio. He expressed frustration as he watched Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway stock going up, but at the same time, the stock indices going lower and many of his previously favored stocks experiencing substantial losses! This conversation naturally piqued our curiosity. We decided to look into this for him and, at the same time, share our findings with our subscribers.Berkshire Hathaway stock traded at an all-time record high price of $520,654.46. At a stock price of $512,991, Berkshire’s market capitalization is $756.23 billion. Last year, Berkshire generated a record $27.46 billion of operating profit, including gains at Geico car insurance, the BNSF railroad, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy.BERKSHIRE vs. S&P 500 BENCHMARKWarren Buffett, age 91 (known as the ‘Sage of Omaha’), is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. He is considered by many to be the most successful stock investor in the world and, according to Forbes Real-Time Billionaire List, has a personal net worth that exceeds $120 billion USD.Very few can compete with his long-term track record. Since 1965, Berkshire has provided +20% average annual returns, almost double the +10.2% average annual returns for the S&P 500 Stock Index benchmark. The 2022 year-to-date comparison is:BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway +14.53%; SPY SPDR ETF -6.36%; FB Facebook -35.64%However, according to Buffett’s own humility, he has endured years of underperformance and has had his share of bad stock picks. When Buffet was asked about drawdowns at one of Berkshire’s annual meetings, he stated, “Unless you can watch your stock holdings decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.” According to www.finance.yahoo.com, the five biggest percentage losses for Berkshire have been:1974 -48.7%, 1990 -23.1%, 1999 -19.9%, 2008 -31.8%, and 2015 -12.5%.WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE ‘BUFFETT INDICATOR’?The Buffett Indicator, as dubbed by Berkshire shareholders, is the ratio of the total United States stock market valuations (the Wilshire 5000 stock index) divided by the annual U.S. GDP. The indicator peaked at the beginning of 2022 and remains near all-time highs even though many stocks are well off their record levels.This historical chart of the Buffett Indicator was created by www.currentmarketvaluation.com. Doing quantitative analysis, we learn that the indicator is more than 1.6 standard deviations above the historical average, which suggests the market is over-valued and, in time, will fall back to its historical average.Berkshire Hathaway At Fibonacci Resistance!On March 18, 2022, Berkshire hit an all-time high price of $520,654. The Fibonacci resistance level of 2.618 or 261.8% of the March 23 low of $239,440 is $520,196. As shown on the daily chart, Berkshire also met resistance at the 2.618 standard deviations of the quarterly Bollinger Band.THE BENCHMARK: S&P 500 SPY ETFThe S&P 500 Index is the industry standard benchmark when comparing investment returns. It’s worth noting that as Berkshire reached the Fibonacci 2.618 resistance, the SPY found support at the Fibonacci 1.618 of the SPY March 23, 2020 low.Central banks have begun to tighten credit by raising interest rates for the first time since 2018, attempting to bring fast-rising energy, food, and housing prices under control. More time is needed to determine the full impact that rising global interest rates will have on current markets.However, on the chart below, we can see that the SPY put in a major top around 480 and, for the time being, has found support around 420 (the Fibonacci 1.618 level). Considering the increased market volatility and that we are now entering a cycle of higher interest rates, it would not surprise us to see the SPY eventually break below 420.It is worth noting that when a market makes a top after a prolonged bull-market, we usually experience distribution. Distribution with volatility results from large institutions beginning to liquidate their holdings while smaller retail investors are trying to buy stocks on sale. In other words, the retail investors are buying the dip hoping to get a bargain, while the institutional investors are selling the rally hoping to be liquidated and/or go short. It is a battle that retail investors will eventually lose!It is important to understand we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article sheds some light on some interesting analyses that you should be aware of. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades with subscribers to our newsletter, and surprisingly, we have just entered five new trades.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.GET READY, GET SET, GO - We invite you to learn more about how my three ETF Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

S&P 500 wavered but is bound to get its act together in the medium term. Powell‘s statements shouldn‘t have stunned the bulls, but they did – the mere reiteration of the tightening plans coupled with remarks on the need to stamp out aggressive inflation before it‘s too late (anchored inflation expectations, anyone? I talked that in the run up to the Sep 2021 P&G price hikes and how the competition would be following in a nod to high input costs, with heating job market on top of the commodities pressure pinching back then already), sent stocks and bonds down.Add the recession fears that were assuaged during the Wednesday‘s conference, and you get the S&P 500 bulls having to dust off after Monday‘s setback. Given how early we‘re in the tightening cycle, and that the real economy isn‘t yet breaking down no matter what‘s in the pipeline geopolitically as regards various consequences to commodities, goods, services and money flows, the stock market bulls are still likely to take on the 4,600 as discussed already.Only this time, the upswing would be accompanied by a more measured and balanced commodities upswing, joined in by precious metals. Great profits ahead and already in the making.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 is consolidating above 4,400, and the relative strength in value as opposed to tech, is boding well – the bulls are pushing their luck a bit too hard as a further TLT decline would pressure growth stocks.Credit MarketsHYG is getting under pressure again, but its decline would be uneven in the short run – as in I‘m looking for quite some back and forth action. First, higher in taking on yesterday‘s selling.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t turning lower in earnest – the miners‘ leadership bodes well for further gains, and is actually a very good performance given the hawkish Fed „surprise“ (surprise that wasn‘t, shouldn‘t have been).Crude OilCrude oil strength returning is a very good omen for commodities bulls broadly, and the rising volume hints at return of bullish spirits. The upswing is far from over – look how far black gold got on relatively little conviction, and where oil stocks trade at the moment.CopperCopper is acting strongly, and the downswing didn‘t entice the bears much. The path of least resistance remains higher, and the red metal isn‘t yet outperforming the CRB Index. Great pick for portfolio gains with as little volatility as can be.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin went on to recover the weekend setback – Ethereum upswing presaged that. They‘re both a little stalling now, but entering today‘s regular session on a constructive note. I‘m looking for modest gains extension.SummaryS&P 500 is bound to recover from yesterday‘s intraday setback – the animal spirits and positive seasonality are there to overcome the brief realization that the Fed talks seriously about tightening and entrenched inflation. While not even the implied readiness to hike by 50bp here and there won‘t cut it and send inflation to the woodshed, let alone inflation expectations, the recession fears would be the next powerful ally of stock market bears. For now though, we‘re muddling through generally higher (I‘m still looking for a tradable consolidation of last week‘s sharp gains), and will do so over the coming several weeks. The real profits are to be had in commodities and precious metals, as I had been saying quite often lately… Enjoy!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

In the new series we focus on some interesting, meme and other… non-typical coins. Today we highlight fluctuations of popular SHIB, DOGE and tasty PancakeSwap. PancakeSwap (CAKE) Price has risen by 5% today what’s probably not so surprising as it seems to be very activating project with loads of announcements on Twitter. Dogecoin (DOGE) The project which is, let’s say, “supported” by Elon Musk keeps arousing interest. Price has risen by ca. 2% until now. The price has reached but declined suddenly… Shiba Inu (SHIB) Another iteration of Doge-inspired coin has declined recently as well, ranging between 2-3% gain at the time I’m writing. Source/Data: TradingView.com, coinmarketcap.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

All the markets’ old boys like crude, gold and silver are still vulnerable for the mix of the factors shaping the prices. Naturally, stocks seems to be more dynamic as the recent events show. China stocks have been fluctuating recently as, among others, COVID-19 and negotiations with the USA were topping the headlines. Global sanctions affect WTI/BRENT price – the supplies from Russia are about to be limited in Europe so the price is to rise again. Going back to gold - Hawkish rhetoric of Fed keeps precious metals investors uncertain. There’s no doubt safe-haven must be watched all the time to decide if it’s the best moment to sell or buy. Crude Oil – WTI Luckily crude oil price has decreased by 3% over last 24 hours and it’s probably ‘waiting’ for the next significant geopolitical updates. According to Reuters, some countries of the EU are still hesitating to stop importing crude oil from Russia. Gold – XAUUSD Yes, price of gold has decreased by almost 1%, but… it could be worse as Powell doesn’t hesitate to present hawkish comments. Silver – XAGUSD Silver price chart shows a significant decline which has helped it to decrease by 1.7% over last day. As wrote above, Powell testimony will let us visualise a more detailed outlook. Source/Data: Reuters, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

Bitcoin´s time to go   Trying to pick tops and bottoms is honorable and a desirable goal. Nevertheless, there needs to be other insurances and principles in place. If an ideal spot passes or the market doesn’t provide for a low-risk entry or enough liquidity for an exit, one still needs alternate tools to participate in the market. Our quad exit strategy allows for position building and market participation that consistently extracts monies from the markets. Bitcoin, daily chart, keep calm and keep trading: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Precision trading gets even more difficult in wartimes, when frequent and conflicting news events jolt prices alternating up and down. The daily chart above shows these jolts over the last three weeks of wartime. We can identify three low-risk long trade entry opportunities (green up arrows on double bottom price scenarios) and one short trading one (red downward arrow at a double top price formation). Our quad exit strategy takes on each of these trades a partial initial profit to mitigate risk, which allows the remainder position size to be the market’s money at risk only.     Bitcoin, weekly chart, pushing up: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Zooming out to larger time frames is another way to avoid noise and see a trading scenario more clearly, and, as such, find “go times” with more accuracy. This weekly chart illustrates that entries and exits are rather entry zones (red and green boxes) versus a precise price level. The trader’s goal is to exploit within such a zone a low-risk entry spot on a lower time frame to get positioned. Regarding bitcoin, we find overall price behavior to be up sloping over the last twelve months, a bullish notion. And we find a high likelihood for the momentary entry zone (green box to the right of the chart). In other words, we are right now in a price zone where its Bitcoin´s time to go. Bitcoin, monthly chart, March closing price: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 22nd, 2022. Suppose we further remove ourselves from the noise by electing a higher timeframe. In that case, we find a pat situation on the monthly chart, pat not for a more significant edge for prices to go higher up but for timing on when to enter the markets. Our statistics show that it will be essential on what price level the month of March will be closing. With a close above current levels (white line), we will enter a bullish buy zone. Yet, if prices decline from here in the last nine days of this month, the probabilities of an immediate price advance rapidly decline. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin´s time to go: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 22nd, 2022. An additional benefit quiet charting provides in turbulent times is to think outside the box. While all noise points toward the most heated issues, finding a trading opportunity elsewhere might be best. In our previous chart book release, we exploited a great go time for bitcoin. Last week, we provided entry points (green up arrows) for rotating one’s gold into bitcoin. Using our quad exit strategy, the trader who wanted to not expose his money to a volatile fiat currency trading world could profit near ten percent on his first fifty percent of position size. We are now placing the stop for the remainder position size to breakeven entry levels. Bitcoin´s time to go: In war, the first casualty is the truth. Under stress, our minds insist on reason, clarity, precise calls for action. Unfortunately, even the best-informed brightest minds can’t find reliable data in times of war since the distortion field of media around the world is at a level where lies and propaganda outweigh facts and truth.  Luckily, a trader can, in these times, rely more heavily on charts. Charts always encompass the sum of opinion. Charts are consistently working as a reliable source to trade from.  The psychological aspect is hugely beneficial since a consistent bombardment of news and everybody’s opinion can get quickly exhausting.  Reduce news data consumption at a time when calm and levelheadedness is the most powerful tool for wealth creation and preservation, and the “go time” will reveal itself nearly effortlessly.     Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

  The Fed's hawkish alerts seem like a voice in the wilderness to gold investors. However, a carefree attitude can backfire on them – in just a few months. An epic battle is unfolding across the financial markets as the Fed warns investors about its looming rate hike cycle and the latter ignores the ramifications. However, with perpetually higher asset prices only exacerbating the Fed's inflationary conundrum, a profound shift in sentiment will likely occur over the next few months. To explain, I highlighted in recent days how the Fed has turned the hawkish dial up to 100. Moreover, I wrote on Mar. 22 that it's remarkable how much the PMs' domestic fundamental outlooks have deteriorated in recent weeks. Yet, prices remain elevated, investors remain sanguine, and the bullish bands continue to play.  However, with inflation still rising and the Fed done playing games, the next few months should elicit plenty of fireworks. For example, with another deputy sounding the hawkish alarm, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Mar. 22: "Inflation has persisted for long enough that people are starting to wonder how long it will persist. I'm already focused on letting make sure this doesn't get embedded and we see those longer-term inflation expectations drift up." As a result, Daly wants to ensure that the "main risk" to the U.S. economy doesn't end up causing a recession. Please see below: Source: Reuters Likewise, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated his position on Mar. 22, telling Bloomberg that “faster is better,” and that “the 1994 tightening cycle or removal of accommodation cycle is probably the best analogy here.” Please see below: Source: Bloomberg   Falling on Deaf Ears To that point, while investors seem to think that the Fed can vastly restrict monetary policy without disrupting a healthy U.S. economy, a major surprise could be on the horizon. For example, the futures market has now priced in nearly 10 rate hikes by the Fed in 2022. As a result, should we expect the hawkish developments to unfold without a hitch? Please see below: To explain, the light blue, dark blue, and pink lines above track the number of rate hikes expected by the Fed, BoE, and ECB. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light blue line has risen sharply over the last several days and months. For your reference, if you focus your attention on the material underperformance of the pink line, you can see why I’ve been so bearish on the EUR/USD for so long. Also noteworthy, please have a look at the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield minus the German 2-Year Bond yield spread. If you analyze the rapid rise on the right side of the chart below, you can see how much short-term U.S. yields have outperformed their European counterparts in 2021/2022. Source: Bloomberg/ Lisa Abramowicz More importantly, though, with Fed officials’ recent rhetoric encouraging more hawkish re-pricing instead of talking down expectations (like the ECB), they want investors to slow their roll. However, investors are now fighting the Fed, and the epic battle will likely lead to profound disappointment over the medium term. Case in point: when Fed officials dial up the hawkish rhetoric, their “messaging” is supposed to shift investors’ expectations. As such, the threat of raising interest rates is often as impactful as actually doing it. However, when investors don’t listen, the Fed has to turn the hawkish dial up even more. If history is any indication, a calamity will eventually unfold.  Please see below: To explain, the blue line above tracks the U.S. federal funds rate, while the various circles and notations above track the global crises that erupted during the Fed’s rate hike cycles. As a result, standard tightening periods often result in immense volatility.  However, with investors refusing to let asset prices fall, they’re forcing the Fed to accelerate its rate hikes to achieve its desired outcome (calm inflation). As such, the next several months could be a rate hike cycle on steroids.  To that point, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dropping the hawkish hammer on Mar. 21, I noted his response to a question about inflation calming in the second half of 2022. I wrote on Mar. 22: "That story has already fallen apart. To the extent it continues to fall apart, my colleagues and I may well reach the conclusion we'll need to move more quickly and, if so, we'll do so." To that point, Powell said that “there’s excess demand" and that "the economy is very strong and is well-positioned to handle tighter monetary policy." As a result, while investors seem to think that Powell’s bluffing, enlightenment will likely materialize over the next few months. Please see below: Source: Reuters Furthermore, with Goldman Sachs economists noting the shift in tone from “steadily” in January to “expeditiously” on Mar. 21, they also upped their hawkish expectations. They wrote: “We are now forecasting 50bp hikes at both the May and June meetings (vs. 25bp at each meeting previously). The level of the funds rate would still be low at 0.75-1% after a 50bp hike in May, and if the FOMC is open to moving in larger steps, then we think it would see a second 50bp hike in June as appropriate under our forecasted inflation path.” “After the two 50bp moves, we expect the FOMC to move back to 25bp rate hikes at the four remaining meetings in the back half of 2022, and to then further slow the pace next year by delivering three quarterly hikes in 2023Q1-Q3. We have left our forecast of the terminal rate unchanged at 3-3.25%, as shown in Exhibit 1.” Please see below: In addition, this doesn’t account for the Fed’s willingness to sell assets on its balance sheet. For context, Powell said on Mar. 16 that quantitative tightening (QT) should occur sometime in the summer and that shrinking the balance sheet “might be the equivalent of another rate increase.” As a result, investors’ lack of preparedness for what should unfold over the next few months has been something to behold. However, the reality check will likely elicit a major shift in sentiment.  In contrast, the bond market heard Powell’s message loud and clear, and with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield hitting another 2022 high of ~2.38% on Mar. 22, the entire U.S. yield curve is paying attention. Please see below: Source: Investing.com Finally, the Richmond Fed released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Mar. 22. With the headline index increasing from 1 in February to 13 in March, the report cited “increases in all three of the component indexes – shipments, volume of new orders, and number of employees.” Moreover, the prices received index increased month-over-month (MoM) in March (the red box below), while future six-month expectations for prices paid and received also increased (the blue box below). As a result, inflation trends are not moving in the Fed’s desired direction. Please see below: Source: Richmond Fed Likewise, the Richmond Fed also released its Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity on Mar. 22, nd while the headline index decreased from 13 in February to -3 in March, current and future six-month inflationary pressures/expectations rose MoM. Source: Richmond Fed The bottom line? While the Fed is screaming at the financial markets to tone it down to help calm inflation, investors aren't listening. With higher prices resulting in more hawkish rhetoric and policy, the Fed should keep amplifying its message until investors finally take note. If not, inflation will continue its ascent until demand destruction unfolds and the U.S. slips into a recession. As such, if investors assume that several rate hikes will commence over the next several months with little or no volatility in between, they're likely in for a major surprise. In conclusion, the PMs declined on Mar. 22, as the sentiment seesaw continued. However, as I noted, it's remarkable how much the PMs' domestic fundamental outlooks have deteriorated in recent weeks. Thus, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict keeps them uplifted, for now, the Fed's inflation problem is nowhere near an acceptable level. As a result, when investors finally realize that a much tougher macroeconomic environment confronts them over the next few months, the shift in sentiment will likely culminate in sharp drawdowns. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Yesterday we were following forex pairs with dollars. Everybody follows dollar index (DXY) to check market’s reaction to Fed rhetoric which is verbalised by Jerome Powell (Chairman) again. Next rate hikes are highly expected. EUR/USD Chart GBP/USD Chart USD/JPY Chart USD/PLN Chart - exotic pair has gained this time, dollar seems to feel better Source/Data: Investing.com, Goldman Sachs, TradingView.com

Investors and traders alike are concerned about what investments they should make on behalf of their portfolios and retirement accounts. We, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to monitor stocks and commodities closely due to the Russia-Ukraine War, market volatility, surging inflation, and rising interest rates. Several of our subscribers have asked if changes in monitor policy may lead to a recession as higher rates take a bigger bite out of corporate profits.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. We review our charts for both stocks and commodities to see what we can learn from the most recent price action. Before we dive into that, let’s review the various stages of the market; with special attention given to expansion vs. contraction in a rising interest rate environment which you can see illustrated below.PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIOWe are keeping an especially close eye on the price action of the SPY ETF. The current resistance for the SPY is the 475 top that happened around January 6, 2022. This top was 212.5% of the March 23, 2020, low that was put in at the height of the Covid global pandemic.The SPY found support in the 410 area at the end of February. If you recall (or didn't know), 410 was the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8% percent of the Covid 2020 price drop. Now, after experiencing a nice rally back, of a little over 50%, we are waiting to see if the rally can continue or if rotation will occur, sending the price back lower.COMMODITY MARKETS SURGEDThe commodity markets experienced a tremendous rally due to fast-rising inflation, especially energy, metals, and food prices.The GSG ETF price action shows that we recently touched 200%, or the doubling of the April 21, 2020, low. Immediately following, similar to the SPY, the GSCI commodity index promptly sold off only to then find substantial buying support at the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8 percent of the starting low price of the bull trend. Resistance for the GSG is at 26, and support is 21.A STRENGTHENING US DOLLARThe strengthening US dollar can be attributed to investors seeking a safe haven from geopolitical events, surging inflation, and the Fed beginning to raise rates. The US Dollar is still considered the primary reserve currency as the greatest portion of forex reserves held by central banks are in dollars. Furthermore, most commodities, including gold and crude oil, are also denominated in dollars.Consider the following statement from the Bank of International Settlements www.bis.org ‘Triennial Central Bank Survey’ published September 16, 2019: “The US dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% of all trades.” The report also highlighted, “Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion three years earlier.” That’s a lot of dollars traded globally and confirms that we need to stay current on the dollars price action.Multinational companies are especially keeping a close eye on the dollar as any major shift in global money flows will seriously negatively impact their net profit and subsequent share value.The following chart by www.finviz.com provides us with a current snapshot of the relative performance of the US dollar vs. major global currencies over the past year:KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades earlier this week, two of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

According to Investing.com Russia could require gas payment in roubles what clearly affects both Forex pairs (e.g. EUR/RUB) and natural gas price (TTF) which has increased by 31%. What’s more MOEX is back to the game after such a long break. Some companies have gained significantly already and many would like to know what’s ahead. Generally speaking Russian currency and Russia-associated markets are really volatile at the moment and there are many assets to watch in the following days. Let’s begin with natural gas price. Obviously monthly chart (yes, it’s been one month since the warfare started) shows the fluctuations caused by the start of invasion which took place on February 24th We may say that the true rise came few days later, as negotiations of cease-fire haven’t changed a thing and sanctions have begun to impact the markets. Further developments containing some signals of a ceasefire appeared not to coincide with the reality heading price of natural gas to a next rise. Natural Gas Price Chat (TTF) – monthly 24/02-23/03 - +31% Natural Gas Price Chart (TTF) Daily 22-23/03/22 +18.5% Russian Roubel (RUB) – Forex Charts +11% Monthly chart shows a huge decline and strengthening of RUB. EUR/RUB Chart - Monthly +6% EUR/RUB Chart - Daily (24h) Source/Data: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com  

PanCake Swap shows a good performance ending the previous day with a sharp rise and keeping the uptrend. Smooth Love Potion was really, really high but has decreased losing almost all 10% gain. Doge (DOGE) Price doesn’t look like the recent optimistic Elon Musk’s dance as memecoin trades below 0. PanCake Swap (CAKE) Price (CAKEUSD) – 24h Chart Smooth Love Potion (SLP) Price (SLPUSD) – 24 Chart Doge Price (DOGEUSD) – 24 Chart Source/Data: TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

Situation in Europe remains global number one as war persists. Even President of The USA, Joe Biden travels to Brussels and Poland to discuss the ongoing war. The day begins with the highly-awaited release of UK Retail Sales which takes place 7 a.m. Previously this indicator amounted to 1.9%. Two hours later we head to Germany, when German Ifo Business Climate Index goes public. The previous one hit 98.9. One hour later, so at 10 a.m. EU Leaders meet and are expected to continue talks linked with the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war which keeps people, but also investors, companies and markets as a whole uncertain. Natural gas price got back to high levels, crude oil price rises as well. Will there be any new sanctions? In the afternoon it’s time to have a look at the US Pending Home Sales (MoM) indicator which is presented at 2 p.m. hitting -5.7% previously. Source/Data: Investing.com Economic Calendar

NVDA stock dropped 3.4% on Wednesday trading.Nvidia CEO says focus on software gives chipmaker $1 trillion market.Nvidia could reshore chip fabrication using Intel.Nvidia stock (NVDA) is up 3.2% to $264.42 on Wednesday after management announced a broader focus on software that could give Nvidia a total addressable market of $1 trillion. Additionally, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told Reuters on Wednesday that he was in discussion with Intel to use the legacy chipmaker's semiconductor foundries to produce Nvidia's chips in the United States.Nvidia Stock News: $1 trillion opportunityAt an investor day presentation earlier this week, Nvidia executives walked analysts through a much larger strategy that entailed a total addressable market (TAM) for Nvidia's various business segments of $1 trillion per year. The larger market for Nvidia products than earlier estimates stems from Nvidia's new focus on software platform offerings. The bigger TAM breaks down to $150 billion from omniverse enterprise software, $150 billion from artificial intelligence software, $100 billion from gaming, $300 billion from the existing semiconductor chip business, and $300 billion from the automotive segment. A solid section of the automotive opportunity also comes from software.Evercore ISI's C.J. Muse found the large figures hard to fathom but said his investment colleagues are, “firm believers in the company’s hardware and software strategies that should deliver world-class organic growth for years to come.”Evercore and Bernstein both have recently reiterated outperform ratings for Nvidia stock. Evercore has a $375 price target on NVDA shares, a solid 44% upside, while Bernstein has a price target of $350. Bernstein pointed out in a letter to clients that Nvidia only makes a few hundred million dollars in annual revenue now from software but sees well over $300 billion in opportunity for that segment.In separate news, CEO Jensen Huang said he was quite willing to work with Intel to produce Nvidia chips onshore in the US. Currently, the company has Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) producing much of its catalog. He told reporters that it could take years of discussions to finalize a fabrication deal, however, as it is an extremely detailed process. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger was on Capitol Hill on Wednesday to brief the US Senate's Commerce Committee on his company's plans to utilize funding from the $52 billion CHIPS Act to reshore and expand US semiconductor fabrication.Nvidia Stock Forecast: NVDA bulls hope for $284Monday and Tuesday of this week both saw Nvidia stock break above the February 10 swing high at $269.25. Right now in the $264s, Nvidia is at support. If it falls below $255.50, volume pressure may push NVDA down to $240, where there is support from both February and the 50-day moving average. To keep the rally going, bulls will try to make a play for $284.22. This level acted as resistance in early to mid-January.Back on March 16, Nvidia shares broke out of a descending trend that began on November 22, 2021. For the rally to continue, the 20-day moving average needs to break above the 50-day moving average fairly soon, possibly by the end of next week at the latest. Long-term support continues to sit at $208.90.NVDA 1-day chart

While everybody was wondering about the end of the COVID-19 pandemy and Russia invaded Ukraine what started affecting the markets. Obviously natural gas and crude oil price are volatile recently. EU leaders accompanied by Joe Biden discuss outlooks and most probably next sanctions. As we wrote in the report about natural gas price the rise started to confuse the world few days after the invasion. It seems that all sanctions and fail of ceasefire negotiations made the crude oil price rise gain momentum. In the middle of March prices got back to the levels of the beginning of the month, but aggressive rhetoric of Russia made BRENT and WTI trading higher again. Let’s have a look at the Crude Oil Price monthly chart (courtesy of TradingView.com) 5-days chart (courtesy of TradingView.com) of Crude Oil Price shows a significant rise in recent days Data/Source: TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com

Imagine all the people… living life in the Metaverse. Once we immerse ourselves in the digital sphere, gold may go out of fashion. Or maybe not?Do you already have your avatar? If not, maybe you should consider creating one, as the Metaverse is coming! What is the Metaverse? It is a digital, three-dimensional world where people are represented by avatars, a network of 3D virtual worlds focused on social connection, the next evolution of the internet, “extended reality,” and the latest buzzword in the marketplace since Facebook changed its name to Meta. If you still have no idea what I’m talking about, you can watch this or just Spielberg’s Ready Player One.The idea of personalities being uploaded online is an intriguing concept, isn’t it? In this vision, people meet with others, play, and simply hang out in a digital world. Imagine friends turning group chats on Messenger or WhatsApp into group meetups in the Metaverse of family gatherings in virtual homes. Ultimately, people will probably be doing pretty much everything there, except eating, sleeping, and using the restroom.Sounds scary? For people in their 30s and older who were fascinated by The Matrix, it does. However, this is really happening. The augmented reality technology market is expected to grow from $47 billion in 2019 to $1.5 trillion in 2030, mainly thanks to the development of the Metaverse. China’s virtual goods and services market is expected to be worth almost $250 billion this year and $370 billion in the next four years.In a sense, it had to happen as the next phase of the digital revolution. You see, we now experience much of life on the two-dimensional screens of our laptops and smartphones. The Metaverse moves us from a flat and boring 2D to a 3D virtual universe, where we can visualize and experience things with a more natural user interface. Let’s take shopping as an example. Instead of purchasing items on Amazon, customers could enter a virtual shop, see and touch all products in 3D, and buy whatever they wanted (actually, Walmart launched its own 3D shopping experience in 2018).OK, we get the idea, but why does Metaverse matter, putting aside sociological or philosophical issues related to transferring our minds into the digital world? Well, it might strongly affect every aspect of business and life, just as the internet did earlier. Here are a couple of examples. Famous brands, like Dolce & Gabbana, are designing clothes and jewelry for the digital world. Some artists are giving concerts in virtual reality. You could also visit some museums virtually, and instead of taking a business trip, you can digitally teleport to remote locations to meet with your co-workers’ avatars.Finally, what does the Metaverse imply for the gold market? Well, it’s difficult to grasp all the possible implications right now. However, the main threat is clear: as people immerse deeper and deeper into the digital world, gold could become obsolete for many users. Please note that cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are and will continue to be widely used as payment methods in the Metaverse.However, there are some caveats here. First, the invention and spread of the internet didn’t sink gold. Actually, the internet enabled gold to be widely traded by investors all over the world. Just take a look at the chart below. Although gold was in a bear market in the 1990s and struggled during the dot-com bubble, it rallied after the bubble burst.Second, the digital world didn’t kill the analog reality. Despite digital streaming of music, vinyl record sales soared last year, reaching a record high in a few decades. The development of the Metaverse could trigger a similar backlash and a return to tangible goods like gold.Third, some segments of the Metaverse look like bubbles. Maybe I’m just too old, but why the heck would anybody spend hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars to buy items in the virtual world? These items include virtual real estates (CNBC says that sales of real estate in the metaverse topped $500 million last year and could double this year), digital pieces of art or even tweets (yup, the founder of Twitter sold the first tweet ever for just under $3 million)! It does not make any sense to me, as I can right-click and download a copy of the same digital files (like a PNG file of a grey pet rock) for which people pay thousands and millions of dollars.Of course, certain items could increase the utility of the game or virtual experience, but my bet is that at least some buyers simply speculate on prices, expecting that they will be able to resell these items to greater fools. When this digital gold rush ends – and given the Fed’s tightening cycle, it may happen in the not-so-distant future – real gold could laugh last.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

March 27, 2022  $USD The recent themes in the foreign exchange market continued last week. On the one hand, the dollar-bloc currencies and Norwegian krona trended higher, while the euro, and especially the yen, traded heavier. On the other hand, although some critics argued that the Fed's 25 bp rate hike earlier this month was too timid, the Fed is signaling it could accelerate the pace. The interest rate adjustment continued in dramatic fashion. The Fed funds futures imply almost a 77% chance of a 50 bp move at the next meeting (May 4). The general resilience of the US economy, the tight labor market (with weekly initial jobless claims falling to new lows since the late 1960s) and upticks in the flash PMI may embolden the Federal Reserve.  The two-year note yield has risen by 50 bp since Russia invaded Ukraine, and it is not done. The consensus that appears to be developing at the Fed favors a march toward neutrality, seen in 2.25%-2.50% by the vast majority of Fed officials. The two-year note yield is near 2.2%, up from a little less than 0.75% at the end of last year.   More than half of the Fed officials and economists think the target rate will have to rise above neutral to counter the inflationary pressures.  A few trends in the foreign exchange market are worth noting. First the yen's weakness. The dollar has risen in 13 of the past 15 sessions against the yen. The rise in US yields and the lack of official resistance appear to have spurred and sustained the move. BOJ's Kuroda was still finding good things to say about the yen's slide ahead of the weekend. Second, the dollar bloc is on fire. The Canadian dollar has strengthened for nine consecutive sessions and 13 of the past 14. Rising commodity prices, the reduction of the US premium at the short-end, and the policy mix, following the Liberal-NDP pace, lend support to the Canadian dollar. The S&P 500 has advanced in seven of the past nine sessions, and this proxy for risk appetites underpinned the Loonie. The Australian dollar has rallied in 10 of the past 13 sessions. Its 3.5% appreciation this month leads the majors. The New Zealand dollar's advance may not be as impressive, but its 2.8% gain against the greenback puts it in second place this month.   Third, Latam currencies continue to shine among the emerging market currencies. High yields, commodity exposure, and the ebbing public health crisis appear to be the main drivers. Contrary to conventional wisdom that seems to believe "everyone" wants weaker exchange rates, currency appreciation is desired throughout the region with price pressures and tighter monetary policy.   Let's drill down.  Dollar Index:  Ahead of the weekend, the Dollar Index successfully tested the 20-day moving average. (~98.40). It has not closed by this moving average since February 22. Still, the high for the move was recorded on March 7 (~99.42), and despite the widening market moving to fully discount 200 bp more of Fed tightening this year, the upside momentum has stalled. The near-term barrier is the downtrend line of this month's highs at the start of the new week, around 99.00. The consolidation pattern is seen to signal the continuation of the trend, which is higher. The MACD and Slow Stochastic have drifted lower but are in the middle of the range. The Slow Stochastic may be trying to turn higher. The Dollar Index peaked in March 2020 near 103.00. However, a break of the 97.70 area would weaken the technical tone.  Euro:  The euro spent the past four sessions in a $1.0960-$1.1040 range. The MACD and Slow Stochastic are trending higher, but the latter has flattened out and could turn lower in the coming days. The flash March PMI showed economic activity more resilient than economists expected. Still, sentiment surveys have weakened materially. The US-German two-year interest rate spread has widened sharply in the US favor (from about 137 bp at the end of last year to above 240 bp at the end of last week.  However, it is not just the US side of the equation that is moving. Since the end of last month, Germany's 2-year yield has risen from almost -80 bp on March 7 to around -15 ahead of the weekend, a new seven-year high. If there was a genuine ceasefire, the euro would likely to recover. The swaps markets anticipate about 45 bp of tightening before the end of this year.  Japanese Yen:   The three-week dollar rally against the yen has stretched momentum indicators and frayed the upper Bollinger Band, which begins next week near JPY122.60. Correlations of the change in the exchange rate and change in US yields are stronger with 10-year rates than the two-year. In the past, US industry (and officials) has often protested against yen weakness, but this time, radio silence. The OECD's measure of Purchasing Power Parity put fair value near JPY96, which makes the yen more than 26% under-valued, second only to the euro's 32% undershoot. With BOJ Governor Kuroda still embracing the benefits of the weak yen, and US rates still trending higher, there is little compelling reason to pick a top in the dollar. The JPY123.75 area may offer resistance, but the next important target is the JPY125.00-JPY125.85 area, where it peaked in 2015. Then Kuroda suggested he did not want to see a move above JPY125.00.   British Pound: Sterling is frustrating. On March 18, it tested a neckline (~$1.32) of a bottoming pattern projected toward $1.34. However, after reaching nearly $1.33 in the middle of the last week, it slipped back to almost $1.3150. The market seemed to judge the Spring budget as milquetoast, and the unexpected drop in February retail sales reported before the weekend was disappointing. That said, the momentum indicators are pointing higher, and the five-day moving average crossed above the 20-day moving average for the first time since late February. The $1.3150 area corresponds to the (50%) retracement of sterling's bounce from the test on $1.3000 on March 14 to the recent high by $1.3300. The next retracement (61.8%) is near $1.3115.  The market-perceived odds of a 50 bp hike at the next meeting in May rose to almost 40% by the end of last week from about 26% the prior week.  Canadian Dollar: The Bank of Canada meets next on April 13. The swaps market now prices roughly an 85% chance of a 50 bp move, up from a 55% chance the previous week. Stronger than expected January retail sales (3.2% instead of 2.4% as the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey had it) may have played a role.  Still, the Liberal-NDP tie-up means more fiscal support was also important. The central bank has suggested that the economy will be operating near full capacity around midyear. The nine-day slide in the greenback saw it fall through the six-month trendline drawn off lows from last October, January, and earlier in March (~CAD1.2565) to test CAD1.25 before the weekend. As one would expect after such a sustained move, the momentum indicators are stretched, and the Slow Stochastic could turn higher. The lower Bollinger Band begins the new week near CAD1.2475. This year's low, set in January, was around CAD1.2450.  Australian Dollar:   The Australian dollar fell by about 5.6% last year, and here in Q1, it has rallied 4% to lead the major currencies. The Aussie's strength has materialized even as the two-year rate differential moved sharply against it. Its discount to the US more than doubled here in March to almost 70 bp. The futures market has pulled the first hike into June from July. The Aussie set a new five-month high ahead of the weekend near $0.7535, which meets the (61.8%) retracement objective of the slide since the $0.8000 was tested last May. The high from last October was closer to $0.7555, where the upper Bollinger Band is found. The momentum indicators are stretched.   Initial support is seen around $0.7450.  Mexican Peso:  AMLO's policies have not been to the liking of investors.   Fiscal policy has not been engaged though around 45% of the population lives below poverty. Still, the peso has appreciated for the past 11 sessions and is at its best level in six months. It is the longest streak in half a century. The greenback took out the MXN20.00 level before the weekend and after the central bank delivered the third consecutive 50 bp hike. The next important technical area is MXN19.50-MXN19.60. By revising higher its inflation forecast, Banxico seemed to signal it intends to hike again. The swaps market has about 120 bp of tightening discounted over the next six months. The move has stretched the momentum indicators, and the lower Bollinger Band is found near MXN19.9060. The MXN20.00-MXN20.05 area that had been support may now serve as resistance. The Brazilian real surge continued. It rose by around 5.6% last week to bring this month's advance to a stunning 8.3%.   The central bank signaled its intention to hike by another 100 bp in May when it meets again to finish the aggressive cycle. The market seems less convinced and has another 50 bp hike.   Chinese Yuan: The dollar rose against the yuan for the fourth consecutive week, its longest streak since last July. Over the four weeks, the greenback has risen slightly less than 0.8%. Even though the PBOC's daily dollar fix is not always stronger than the market projections, it still seems clear that Beijing would prefer a somewhat weaker yuan given the divergence of monetary policy and the recognized need for more stimulus. China's 10-year premium over the US continues to shrink. It halved last week to about 32 bp. It has been a dozen years since the US offered a premium over China, but that is where it appears to be headed. Next week's PMI readings will likely reflect an economy that is struggling. Higher commodity prices, the Covid-related lockdowns, and the loss of the property market as an engine are taking a toll. The dollar's high this month was set on March 15 next CNY6.3860. It is also the year's high. The next important chart point is CNY6.40. Dollar support is seen in the CNY6.3500-CNY6.3550 area.       Disclaimer

Proponents noted a 63.07% spike in the total transaction volume of cryptocurrencies across exchanges. Coinmarketcap data reveals a month-on-month increase of 4.75% in crypto trading volume. Bitcoin price crossed $47,000, fueled by $200 million shorts liquidated across exchanges. Bitcoin price is rallying, fueled by a frenzy of massive short liquidations on crypto exchanges. Proponents believe bulls have flocked to the market, as transaction volume exceeded $100 billion. Bitcoin price pushes past $47,000 in recent rally Bitcoin price crossed key resistance to hit a high above $47,000 in a rally fueled by the liquidation of millions of short positions. Analysts at the crypto intelligence platform Santiment observed a massive liquidation of shorts across exchanges at 1 pm and 6 pm UTC across crypto exchanges on March 27, 2022. Analysts argue that Bitcoin’s recent price rally to $47,000 was a response to liquidation in large quantities over the weekend. The average funding rate entered the long zone, where uncertainty among market participants increased. Therefore, analysts conclude that Bitcoin shorts have fueled the asset’s ongoing rally. Bitcoin and altcoin shorts liquidatedColin Wu, a Chinese journalist, reported a spike in the total transaction volume of cryptocurrencies, exceeding $100 billion over the past 24 hours. Wu referred to data from Coinmarketcap and observed a 63.07% increase in crypto transaction volume compared to March 26, 2022. The total crypto market value now exceeds $2.12 trillion. Historically, analysts have witnessed high transaction activity when large wallet investors flock to the market or scoop up crypto. Bloomberg analysts argue that Bitcoin looks overbought, compared to its 50-day Moving Average. Bitcoin price crossed key resistance at $45,000 in the current rally, erasing its losses for the year. FXStreet analysts have evaluated Bitcoin price and predicted the start of a new uptrend in the asset, as it crossed the $45,000 level.

Tesla stock surges on news of a potential stock split dividend.TSLA is up at $1,066 of +5.6% in Monday premarket trading.Tesla stock has rallied sharply from early March lows.Tesla stock (TSLA) is back to the top of the social media chatter on Monday, usurping GameStop and AMC in the process. The stock is surging this morning on news of a potential stock split dividend. Tesla previously did a 5-for-1 stock split back in August 2020, and other companies have followed suit, notably Amazon. This makes it easier for retail investors to own the stock when it has a more affordable share price.Tesla Stock News: Stock split imminent?Tesla's board of directors has already approved the plan to split the shares for a stock dividend and will put it to a vote of the shareholders. The news was well-received by retail shareholders who tend to be more active in the premarket than other holders. A stock dividend is exactly what it sounds like. Instead of receiving cash, shareholders receive new shares in the company. This means companies do not use up cash to fund the dividend. Stock dividends are usually dilutive to earnings per share (EPS) as more shares are in issue after the event. Tesla is up nearly 6% before the open. It is not all plain sailing though for the EV giant as more Chinese covid lockdowns are announced. Tesla will close its Shanghai giga plant for at least a day on the back of lockdowns in the city. Tesla Stock ForecastA powerful rally with the next target now set at $1,210. This would set up Tesla's (TSLA) stock to break to all-time highs. Currently, on the longer-term time horizon, the narrative is still bearish with a series of lower highs and lower lows. So breaking $1,210 turns Tesla bullish on all time horizons. Naturally, it is already bullish in the short term after last week's strong rally. Holding above $945 is the key pivot for medium and long-term traders. TSLA 20-hour chartThere is a short-term pivot at $1,000, with high volume at this level. Below sees a volume gap to $945, the key as mentioned above. Tesla chart, 15-minute

With the unrest in the Black Sea basin, it appears that there are two more cross-trade wars in the world. These are about energy and currency.Crude oil prices, down most of Friday, finally ended the week higher after a huge fire broke out at oil facilities in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, following attacks by Yemeni rebels.The great winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly the United States, which now seems to be taking advantage of Europe’s moment of weakness.The latter is indeed currently switching its energy supplies from Russian natural gas (pipeline-transported) to the much more polluting and much more expensive US shale gas. The reasons are much higher extraction (fracking) and transportation costs since it requires additional processes such as liquefaction/degasification and the deployment of more port terminals that are able to provide such steps – also much more energy-consuming – linked to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies.(Source: ResearchGate.net)By doing so, the European Union is going to increase its dependence on the US whilst a new and stronger block (including Asia) emerges on the east side.As a result, we have already started to witness dedollarisation in international trade, with the petroyuan set to dethrone the heavily-printed petrodollar.No wonder that the US dollar supply surge has ended up triggering uncontrollable and probably still underestimated inflation. As a result, this monetary virus is spreading through the global economy at a faster pace than any other variant! WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)“Inflation is like toothpaste. Once it's out, you can hardly get it back in again. So, the best thing is not to squeeze too hard on the tube.” – Dr Karl Otto PöhlThat’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.VIX – VOLATILITY S&P 500 INDEX – CBOE – DAILY CHARTSPY RALLIES +10%The SPY has enjoyed a sharp rally back up after touching its Fibonacci 1.618% support based on its 2020 Covid price drop. Money has been flowing back into stocks as investors seem to be adapting to the current geopolitical environment and the change in global central bank lending rate policy.Resistance on the SPY is the early January high near 475, while support remains solidly in place at 414. March marks the 2nd anniversary of the 2020 Covid low that SPY made at 218.26 on March 23, 2020.SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST - ARCA – DAILY CHARTBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY RECORD-HIGH $538,949!Berkshire Hathaway is up +20.01% year to date compared to the S&P 500 -4.68%. Berkshire’s Warren Buffet has also been on a shopping spree, and investors seem to be comforted that he is buying stocks again. Buffet reached a deal to buy insurer Alleghany (y) for $11.6 billion and purchased nearly a 15% stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $8 billion.These acquisitions seem to be well-timed as insurers and banks tend to benefit from rising interest rates, and Occidental generates the bulk of its cash flow from the production of crude oil.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. With that said, Berkshire is a classic example of not fighting the market. As Berkshire continues to make new highs, its’ trend is up!BRK.A – BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. - NYSE – DAILY CHARTCOMMODITY DEMAND REMAINS STRONGInflation continues to run at 40-year highs, and it appears that it will take more than one FED rate hike to subdue prices. Since price is King, we definitely want to ride this trend and not fight it. It is always nice to buy on a pullback, but the energy markets at this point appear to be rising exponentially. The XOP ETF gave us some nice buying opportunities earlier at the Fibonacci 0.618% $71.78 and the 0.93% $93.13 of the COVID 2020 range high-low.Remember, the trend is your friend, as many a trader has gone broke trying to pick or sell a top before its time! Well-established uptrends like the XOP are perfect examples of how utilizing a trailing stop can keep a trader from getting out of the market too soon but still offer protection in case of a sudden trend reversal.XOP – SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORE & PRODUCT – ARCA – DAILY CHARTKNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades last week, four of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Furthermore, successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

USDJPY seeks support The Japanese yen recouped some losses after a drop in February’s unemployment rate. The pair surged to August 2015’s high and the psychological level of 125.00. An overwhelmingly overbought RSI may cause a pullback if short-term buyers start to unwind their bets. As the market mood stays upbeat, trend followers could be waiting to jump in at a discount. 122.20 is the closest level if the greenback needs to gather support. A break above the current resistance would propel the pair to new highs above 127.00. AUDUSD hits major resistance The Australian dollar stalls as caution prevails ahead of major economic data. The rally slowed down at last October’s peak at 0.7550. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling weighs on the Aussie. The bulls may see a pullback as an opportunity to accumulate in hope of a new round of rally. 0.7400 from the latest bullish breakout would be key support should this happen. On the upside, an extended rally could propel the pair to last June’s highs around 0.7770 and pave the way for a reversal in the medium-term. US 100 to test major resistance Growth stocks rose amid a sell-off in the bond market. Short-term sentiment remains bullish after a series of higher lows which indicates sustained buying interest. The Nasdaq 100 is heading to the daily resistance at 15050. A bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the rally, foreshadowing a potential retracement. 14600 is the support and its breach may trigger a sell-off towards 14200 which sits at the base of the recent breakout. A close above the said hurdle may put the index back on track in the weeks to come.

Every Tuesday our Global Macro Strategist Luke Suddards will be analysing the charts of key global asset classes such as FX, commodities and more. Catch him on Twitter - @lukesuddards Also, he produces The Weekly Close Out every Friday, which provides key insights into the main catalysts for all the major global macro assets throughout the week. The analysis takes a hybrid approach - combining fundamental and technical analysis with charts to enhance your trading experience. Sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox: https://cloud.go.pepperstone.com/week

BTC is up 4% on Monday, ending the day around $48K, and corrected by about 1% to $47.5K on Tuesday morning. Ethereum was up 1.8% in the last 24 hours to $3.4K. Terra is a leader of the day According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 1% over the day, to $2.15 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1 points to 42.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed rose by 11 points over the day, to 60, and moved from neutral level to the "greed" grade. On Tuesday, the index dropped to 56 points. Among the leading altcoins, Terra soared by 10%, Doge corrected by 2%. In most others, there is a slight correction in the growth of the last days, but they are in positive territory over the last day. Bitcoin continued to rise on Monday after it broke through the strong resistance of the February highs around $45K in the previous evening. By the end of the day, BTC has renewed the highs of early January above $48K, having won back the decline since the beginning of the year. Bitcoin is correlating with S&P500 The growth of the first cryptocurrency rested on the 200-day moving average ($48.2K). Confident consolidation above it promises to strengthen and expand the growth of the entire crypto market and breathe fresh impetus into the growth of bitcoin. In December, we saw a false break, but then the price levels were higher, and corrective sentiment intensified in the stock markets. Now Bitcoin is growing along with the rise of stock indices and often even acts as a leading indicator of investor sentiment. According to Arcane Research, BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 stock indicator recently hit a 17-month high. According to CoinShares, institutions invested $193 million in crypto funds last week, and it was the most significant amount in three months. Glassnode believes that the Bitcoin trend has already changed to bullish, as evidenced by the increase in the number of addresses accumulating BTC.

Bitcoin wins the race   While Russia accepts hard currencies like gold, a move like this shows that the efficient attributes of bitcoin come to the forefront in times of crisis and are accepted for large business transactions between nations. Bitcoin, daily chart, price breakout: Bitcoin in USD, daily chart as of March 29th, 2022. Shortly after, president Putin confirmed this new way of doing business. In addition, China and Russia agreed to a thirty-year contract in the gas sector, transacted in Euros. We can see that we find ourselves in times of currency warfare and that it is essential to pay close attention to where and in what form we store our values. The daily chart above reflects this recent news in a price advance of bitcoin from US$37,567 to US$47,701. A 28% advance in just two weeks. Bitcoin broke through the sideways range, and this week shall show whether this breakout will be a successful one or not. In this case, the bulls have their odds much in favor over the bears.     Bitcoin, weekly chart, price left the station: Bitcoin in USD, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2022. We have now left the entry zone (green box) compared to last week’s chart book and the published weekly chart. While the crowd now chases a trade, struggling with the typical inefficiencies of volatility breakouts (bad fills, slippage, being late), we are established in our positioning with the sum of 9 accumulated runners. The runners being the last 25% of each initial position. A fully de-risked or more precisely no-risk venture (see quad exit)! Looking at the weekly chart, we find the resistance distribution zones at around US$49,650 and US$52,430. We place additional entries if the price returns to the entry box top. Bitcoin, monthly chart, if March closes strong: Bitcoin in USD, monthly chart as of March 28th, 2022. The price has entered the confirmed buy zone from a monthly perspective. The dual chart shows the progression from last week’s anticipation to this week’s chart book release. Should prices within this week stay within the green box, all-time frames are in alignment. A picture of a confirmed bullish bitcoin trend. It is a rare occurrence and confirmation for larger time frame traders and a call to look for low-risk entries, if no sufficient exposure is at play yet. Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart, Bitcoin wins the race: Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio, daily chart as of March 28th, 2022. Another split-screen view of a chart (a daily chart of the bitcoin/gold ratio) shows the progression of last week’s chart book publication and the situation right now. We had a triangle breakout last week and a substantial advance since then. The suggested rotation out of gold and into bitcoin was/is a successful one. The overall move was 30% in just two weeks. One can use this relationship as well to indicate bitcoins’ recent gain in strength and direction. Bitcoin wins the race: Change is never accepted lightly. We typically resist change and prefer an existing state of affairs as human beings. Nevertheless, we find ourselves in less than average circumstances with a worldwide pandemic, a never-ending war, and a general divide in opinions. Russia’s recent move towards approval of bitcoin shows that when the rubber meets the road, what works and is practical in times of crisis and need, wins the race. While governments around the globe feverishly try to get their electronic payment systems developed, bitcoin already finds its use spreading, and successfully so.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|March 29th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, Bitcoin consolidation, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

We have DYDX in a descending channel. We also have an inner trendline serving as support for the price movement. I expect the price to retrace back to this trendline before takeoff out of the trendline. But if price should break the inner trendline downward, then price will fall more. What do you think? Share your opinion in the comment section You can also demand for analysis of your preferred coin Happy Trading https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DYDXUSDT/4C2zwETr-DYDX-AT-BREAKOUT-POINT/ Join my FREE Telegram Channel for daily updates and signals https://t.me/Petrock_Signals

On Friday, markets have gone into wait-and-see mode ahead of the US labour market data release later. Average market forecasts suggest that the economy created around 500K jobs in March, of which 480K came from the private sector. Such data would narrow the gap between the peak before the pandemic to 1.5 million. Given that some job seekers have left the job market during this time, it becomes clear how tight the market remains. And this will intensify the struggle of employers. From the new data, analysts, on average, expect a further acceleration of the wage growth to 5.5% YoY against 5.1% a month earlier and a 5.4% growth of the personal consumption price index in February. Thus, the labour market has an additional pro-inflationary effect on prices as more money is available in the US economy and competition for goods tightens. If the labour market does manage to add more than half a million jobs in March, we should expect a severe tightening of the rhetoric of the US monetary authorities in the coming weeks. It will not be surprising if we see more willingness of FOMC officials to hike the interest rate by 50 points at once on the 05th of May. For the speculative currency market, robust US employment data has the potential to put the Dollar back on the upside, making the US the only economy capable of such a sharp monetary policy tightening in the coming months. The dollar index has been moving in an upward channel since the middle of last year, adding more than 11% from the bottom to the peak. Earlier in the week, the DXY pulled back after the Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul. However, monetary policy could provide continued and sustained support for the US currency, very soon returning the Dollar to renew its two-year highs in the area above 100. For EURUSD, this could mean a consolidation under 1.1000 and GBPUSD under 1.3000.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Lael Brainard’s hawkish comments rocked the markets yesterday as she said that the next interest rate hikes should be more aggressive to tame the skyrocketing inflation in the US, and that the Fed could start reducing its near $9 trillion balance sheet as soon as next month, and at ‘a rapid pace’. Investors will be closely watching the Fed minutes today. There would be no surprise if the Fed hinted a 50-bp hike in the next meeting. Activity in Fed funds futures assess more than 75% chance to a 50-bp hike. Yet, what will really make the difference is the speed at which the Fed will shrink the balance sheet. And there is a big potential for a hawkish pricing on this front. In the FX, Brainard’s comments sent the US dollar rallying yesterday. The dollar index is now preparing to flirt with the 100 offers, the EURUSD sank below the 1.09 level as Cable pulled below the 1.31 mark, but if the Fed minutes doesn’t reveal a further hawkish surprise, we shall see the dollar give back the latest gains and the euro and the pound record a minor rebound. Else, the US and the Europeans are expected to announce a new round of sanctions today. EU is expected to announce a ban on Russian coal imports, but not on Russian oil and gas. The reduced risk of a European ban on Russian oil keeps the oil bulls contained. Bitcoin tipped a toe below the $45K mark on hawkish Fed comments, while gold remains undecided near $1920, supported by safe haven demand, and pressured by rising US yields. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 Brainard’s hawkish comments sent stocks lower 1:50 Deutsche warns of recession 2:24 FOMC minutes: what to expect? 5:58 EU to ban Russian coal, but not Russian oil and gas 6:46 Oil bulls contained on unlikely sanctions on Russian oil 8:00 Energy stocks upbeat 8:52 Bitcoin under pressure 9:10 Gold, torn between safe haven demand & rising yields Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

The dollar index passed 101, which we last saw for just over a week at the height of the lockdowns. But history suggests that this rally has roughly passed the halfway point. DXY is unlikely to stop near 103-104 as it has done in the last six years Except for a brief period of stock market panic in March 2020, the last time the dollar was at this level against a basket of the six most popular currencies was in April 2017. The Dollar Index peaked in the 103-104 area in both cases and has not traded consistently higher for the past 20 years. Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun The past two times, the dollar’s rise has been halted by the Fed, easing its policy or tone of commentary, as we have seen stock and commodity markets crash along with the USD rally. That is not the case this time, so the DXY is unlikely to stop near 103-104 as it has done in the last six years. For USDJPY, it could spike to 140, which has not been seen since 1998 We are now seeing a rise in the dollar, mainly on the Fed’s switch to monetary tightening mode. We saw that the last three such impulses of dollar growth, which started in 2014, 1998, and 1992 caused the DXY to appreciate by about 25%. For you: Forex Rates: British Pound (GBP) Strengthening? Weak (EUR) Euro? GBP, NZD And AUD Supported By Monetary Policy? Applying this pattern to the current case, we get that the dollar has exhausted just over half of its upside potential and could strengthen as much as 110-112 on the DXY in the next few months. For EURUSD, this scenario sets up a plunge towards parity, the lows of the last 20 years. For USDJPY, it could spike to 140, which has not been seen since 1998. And for GBPUSD, a return to 1.2000, the lows of the Brexit-fear era.

Forex 2022-04-19 10:30 Summary:  The Japanese yen has seen a relentless decline over the last few weeks, underpinned by a widening yield differential between the US and the Japanese government bonds. As verbal interventions from the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance fail to be heard, we are looking at a subtle policy shift with the aim to manage volatility, or a real physical intervention. The JPY continues to run away to the downside, with USDJPY surging above 128.00 for the first time since 2002. The next major chart point is the early 2002 high near at 135.00. AUDJPY has also surged to fresh record highs of 94.50+ as the AUD was slightly firmer following the hawkish tilt in RBA minutes. Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun The big why? US 10-year treasury yields have notched a new cycle peak and will soon threaten the 3.00% level if they continue to rise, widening the policy divergence with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), that continues to stick with its yield-curve-control (YCC) policy that caps 10-year Japanese government bond yields (JGB) yields at 0.25%. Both the BOJ and the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) have stepped up their verbal interventions against JPY volatility as recently as overnight, but these have hardly had any effect. The BOJ conducted unprecedented four-day purchase plan into the end of its financial year on March 31 after the JGB yields had hit 0.25%, a ceiling the central bank had made clear in March last year. This further highlighted their commitment to capping yields. While the BoJ may be concerned about the volatility and the pace of JPY decline, the Bank is unlikely to be worried about its direction. In fact, BOJ rhetoric repeatedly suggests that it sees JPY weakness as good news for the economy and exports as well as a factor helping to spur imported inflation pressures. This is especially important if we note that GDP is still well below pre-COVID levels and core inflation is negative. Is inflation a concern? The rise in JGB yields has little to do with expectations that Japanese inflation is moving sustainably higher. CPI is expected to increase above the BOJ’s 2% (from 0.9% currently) target, but the central bank expects the move to be temporary. Much of the gains in inflation are on the back of base effects and higher energy prices, and underlying price pressures remain muted. Stripping out energy prices and fresh food clearly shows that core inflation is still very benign at multiyear lows at -1% y/y. Will the YCC be tweaked? We are probably starting to see the limit of the yield curve control program, as sustained BOJ purchases could be a problem for a central bank that already owns around half of government issues. Would the BOJ go Australia’s way that clumsily abandoned its peg in November? That would need more domestic demand for JGBs which is unlikely to be achieved. Historically, BoJ has been open to adjusting targeting range of bond yields. It widened the range to +/-0.25% from +/-0.20% in March 2021, which was changed in July 2018 from +/-0.10% before that. The BoJ could tweak its YCC policy to target 10-year yields form +/-25bps to +/-30bps to give itself more flexibility and manage volatility. This move, if effected, will be communicated as a measure to manage the increased volatility in bond markets, to ensure that it is not taken as a sign of any shift in policy thinking. Article on Crypto: Hot Topic - NEAR Protocol! Terra (LUNA) has been seeing a consistent downward price trend, DAI Should Stay Close To $1 What to watch next? Our sense is that until a policy shift is spotted, or real intervention is mobilized, the market is content to continue driving the JPY lower. Ironically, in the past, the MoF has mobilised intervention in the yen in the direction of avoiding further JPY strength, not weakness. These interventions may not achieve more than temporary success if the underlying policy and market dynamics don’t shift (i.e., the BOJ sticking to its current policy while inflationary pressures and yields elsewhere continue higher). But the risk of tremendous two-way, intraday volatility should be appreciated. Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki is heading for a bilateral meeting with the US and comments would be on watch. Next BOJ meeting is scheduled for April 27-28, but focus will still be tilted more towards the Fed’s May meeting where a 50bps rate hike is expected along with the start of quantitative tightening. The only other way could be to hope that the yen would find a floor, and wait for BoJ governor Kuroda’s tenure to end in April 2023. This may then be followed up with rate hikes.

The dollar continues to push back against competitors in global markets, going on the offensive against a broader front of currencies and stock indices. Geopolitics is ceding to monetary policy its role as the primary driver. And that could be bad news for risk-sensitive assets, as there is still no light at the end of this tunnel. The dollar's main competitors, the euro and the yen, seem to have exhausted their downside potential, and now the volatility threatens the next, broader range of currencies. Read next (by FXPro): (BTC) Bitcoin Priceslips To The Lows Of The Year. Crypto Regulations: Confusing Discussion In The US And The EU. Ether (ETH) And Monero (XMR) Highlighted | FXMAG.COM The yen has stabilised at 20-year lows at 128 after a 12% slump since the start of March and a 25% drawdown since the 2021 start. EURUSD was one step away from 1.0700 at the start of the European session, having lost 4.4% since March and 13% from its peak in January 2021. The movement is not too sweeping but steadily lowers the euro traded back in 2003. Read next (by FXPro): Want To Exchange 100 GBP To USD? GBP/USD Below 1.3000! (GBP) British Pound Weakens! GBP To USD - 17-Months-Low! | FXMAG.COM However, we are now seeing a marked reduction in the yen and the euro amplitude, while in contrast, it is rising in other market sectors. The British pound is flying into the abyss for a second day, losing 0.77% on Monday after falling 1.6% on Friday. GBPUSD has capitulated, pulling back to 1.2740, where it last was in September 2020. GBPUSD has moved into the lower half of the trading range this week from after the pandemic hit. The tactical target for the bears, in this case, could be the 1.2600 area, with the final point being 1.2000, where the GBPUSD has repeatedly found support over the past six years. The Australian dollar has lost about 4% since Thursday. The decline for the fourth consecutive week took about 6% off its peak at the start of April, maybe just half of the potential decline towards 0.6700, a critical turning point in the last 24 years.

EURUSD breaks critical support The euro struggles as the eurozone’s growth prospect dampens. The pair remains under pressure after it broke below a short-lived congestion area around 1.0770. A bearish breakout below March 2020’s lows near 1.0650 (a major demand zone) could send the single currency to 1.0580. In the meantime, the RSI’s double-dip in the oversold territory may trigger a buy-the-dips behavior. 1.0750 is a fresh resistance and its breach could alleviate the selling pressure. The bulls must clear 1.0840 before they could regain control. Read next: Powerful (USD), Really Strong (CAD) - US Dollar To Canadian Dollar, Solid NZD Performance, UKOIL To Stabilize? | FXMAG.COM AUDUSD sees limited bounce The Australian dollar recovers over a better-than-expected Q1 CPI reading. A break below March’s low at 0.7170 may have invalidated the recent rebound and put the Aussie on a reversal course in the weeks to come. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates an acceleration to the downside. An extremely oversold RSI on the hourly time frame prompted sellers to take profit, driving the price up momentarily. Stiff selling pressure could be expected around 0.7370. 0.7100 would be the next stop in case of another sell-off. Read next: EUR/USD: US Dollar (USD) Supported By A 75bp Rate Hike!? EUR Influenced By Last Week's Activities, Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) May Not Stop Below $1980 | FXMAG.COM UK 100 struggles for bids The FTSE 100 tumbles as China’s lockdowns hit sentiment. A plunge below the demand zone at 7500 further weighs on the market mood after buyers failed to lift offers around this year’s peak at 7670. The RSI’s overextension led to a rebound. Nonetheless, downbeat sentiment capped the price at 7490 where a new round of sell-off started. Trapped buyers could be scrambling for the exit, compounding existing selling interests in the process. A deeper correction below 7370 would send the index to 7250. Read next: What Is Chia Coin? - (XCH) - First New Nakamoto Coin Since Bitcoin Launch (2009) | FXMAG.COM

Multi timeframe, as well as comparison analysis, have many benefits. As traders, we tend to utilize the shorter-term time frames to enter our trades and place our stops. But the BIG money is made from gleaning information from the longer-term charts. We would classify long term as monthly or weekly while short term would be a daily or 4-hour time frame. Comparison analysis can be done by comparing different time periods or we can see how our market is trading vs another highly correlated market. Since we have a lot of subscriber interest in stocks, we thought it might be time to compare the current chart of the SPY to the S&P 500 index during the 2002-2009 period. The S&P 500 weekly chart experienced a nice bull market with several buy points from 2002 up to 2007. S&P’s 2007 top occurred at its 2.0 or 200% extension of its 2002 high vs low. Then about 5-months later sold off a little over -20%. After hitting the key -20% psychological end-of-bull-market area the S&P rallied for several weeks up to its 1.618 overhead resistance. Then after turning back down at the 1.618 the S&P lost approximately -50% of its value. The complete drop occurred over a 17–18-month period from peak to trough. 2002-2009 SPX • S&P 500 INDEX CFD • WEEKLY • TRADINGVIEW SPY VULNERABLE TO ANOTHER -8% DOWN BEFORE STAGING A DEAD-CAT BOUNCE! The SPY is down approximately -12 to -13% from its peak for 2022. It is feasible the SPY could fall another -8% or reach -20% before it stages some type of rally into late summer or early fall. If this scenario plays out, we should then prepare for what could be a significant drop or bear market in the 4th quarter of 2022 that could extend into 2023 and beyond. The 2007 top of the S&P 500 index occurred at 2.0 or 200% of its previous major high-low swing low. The 2022 top for the SPY also occurred at 2.1618 or 200% of its Covid high-low swing low. The potential exists for the SPY to pull back -20% from its peak before staging a temporary rally to a lower distribution top. 2020-2022 SPY • SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST • 4-HOUR • TRADINGVIEW USD CONTINUES TO MOVE HIGHER We are now seeing that major economies (US/UK/Japan) are not immune from global deleveraging and inflation. Investors have been seeking safety in the US Dollar and this may eventually trigger a broader and deeper selloff in U.S. stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear. Especially in times like these, traders must understand where opportunities are and how to turn this knowledge into profits. Part of what we do at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com is to distill price action into technical strategies and modeling systems. These assist us in understanding when opportunities exist in the US stock market and specific sector ETFs. Our core objective is to protect our valuable capital while identifying suitable risk vs reward opportunities for profits in new and emerging trends. A CANARY IN THE COAL MINE – BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY Around 1911, miners would carry canaries into coal mines to give them an advanced warning of danger. This phrase or analogy is also utilized by traders in the financial markets. Our canary or canaries would simply be a market or stock that might give us an indication that there is a problem with the overall market or that the global equity markets are shifting from a bull to a bear. Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A (NYSE) founded and operated by famed Warren Buffet is a diversified holding company that owns subsidiaries that engage in insurance, freight rail transportation, energy generation, and distribution, services, manufacturing, retailing, banking, and others. It is a good candidate for “a canary in the coal mine”, in our case the stock market.  Berkshire is down approximately -9% from its 2022 peak but remains up +10% year-to-date. BRK’s stock price reached 200% as its shares traded above 2.618 and 2.666 for a few days before selling off. From its Covid low on March 23, 2020, to its 2022 high on March 29, 2022, BRK rallied 2 years and 6 days from trough to peak. If BRK were to lose -20% from its peak or give back all its 2022 gain in the stock price we should prepare to sell the rally that follows if we have not done so already. Note: TTT subscribers are already safely in cash awaiting trade instructions for select alternative or inverted ETFs. BRK.A • BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. • NYSE • DAILY • TRADINGVIEW UNDERSTANDING PRICE IS A GAME-CHANger As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to subscribers. Recently, we entered new trades, all of which hit their first profit target levels and then eventually triggered their break-even profit stop-loss orders on their remaining position. After booking our profits we are now safely in cash preparing for our next trades. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets and asset classes as we track global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Successful trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success. WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens. Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy? We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US GDP shocked with a 1.4% contraction in the first quarter of 2022. The consumption, and inventories components all paint a rosier picture. Dollar profit-taking is in place but may reverse later on. Is it time to use the R-word? R stands for recession, which is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic shrinking. The US economy squeezed by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022 – so it would only take another one to have an official downturn. Not so fast – not a recession, nor the dollar. In raw dollar terms, the economy grew by 6.6%, and inflation eroded it by 8%, hence the negative 1.4% growth. That is a reason for the Federal Reserve to raise rates aggressively and thus send the dollar higher. The Fed announces its decision only next week, and some dollar profit-taking is currently seen, a part of end-of-month flows. This opportunity to correct some of the massive dollar gains could fade sooner than later. Even without waiting for the Fed or flows to fade, focusing purely on the report provides three significant silver linings that could help the greenback recover. 1) Personal consumption is up 2.7% annualized in the first quarter vs. 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021. That means shoppers remain resilient despite rising prices. Consumption is roughly 70% of the US economy. 2) Inventories have eroded some 0.8% – more than half of the contraction has come from using existing materials in storage. When inventories are drawn down in one quarter, they tend to be replenished in the second one. Less growth now, more later. 3) Net trade slashed no less than 3.2% from growth – an anomaly for this usually benign factor. This seems like a "pothole" that could be reversed in the second quarter. All in all, the devil is in the headline, not in the details this time. All this should lead to a resumption of the bullish dollar trend.

DXY is sitting around a strong resistance zone 103-104 so we will be expecting a bearish reversal or at least any kind of rejection. (we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes to confirm the shift in momentum) Unless the bulls take over by breaking above the resistance with a clean candle close above it. Then a movement till the next resistance would be expected 108-109. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why? Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich

Jonny Hart speaks to APAC Senior Market Analyst Jeffrey Halley about news impacting the market and the week ahead. European PMIs are the week’s highlight tomorrow Welcome to a new week with policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Korea, and Bank Indonesia. We start today’s podcast with a quick overview of Asian markets. A quiet news weekend has left Asian markets focusing once again on China and the covid zero slowdowns. We look at price action around Asia and discuss the future of China and covid zero. Next, it’s over to equity and currency markets. We discuss whether the worst is over for equities and if the US Dollar rally has run its course. We then look ahead to the data calendar which is fairly quiet this week. European PMIs are the week’s highlight tomorrow. We discuss them and their potential impact on the single currency. Read next: Altcoins: Ripple Crypto - What Is Ripple (XRP)? Price Of XRP | FXMAG.COM This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Learn more on Oanda

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. There were many really large moves this week in the COT positioning as the data was recorded on Tuesday – just one day ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 75 basis point increase in the US benchmark Fed Funds rate. Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets (Russian ruble futures positions have not been updated by the CFTC since March) we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency market positions was the Canadian dollar (24,264 contracts) and the Japanese yen (21,891 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (12,933 contracts), Swiss franc (9,324 contracts), US Dollar Index (6,538 contracts), British pound sterling (5,214 contracts), Australian dollar (4,642 contracts), Bitcoin (571 contracts) and Brazil real (508 contracts) also showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets were the Mexican peso (-59,107 contracts) and the Euro (-56,561 contracts) this week. Currency Speculators Notes: US Dollar Index speculators raised their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the seventh time in the past ten weeks. These increases pushed the large speculator standing (+44,476 contracts) to the highest level in the past two hundred and seventy-three weeks, dating back more than five years to March 21st of 2017. The most bullish level ever was +81,270 contracts on March 10th of 2015. The US dollar strength keeps rolling along and the overall standing has now remained bullish for the past fifty consecutive weeks, dating back to July of 2021. The US Dollar Index price has continued its strength as well and reached a high this week of over 105.75 which is the best level for the DXY since back in December of 2002. Euro speculators sharply dropped their positions this week by the most on record with a huge decline of -56,561 contracts. This record decline beat out the previous high of -52,107 contracts that took place on June 19th of 2018. Euro bets had been gaining over the past month and were at a total of +50,543 contracts before this week’s sharp turnaround which has now tipped the overall spec positioning into bearish territory for the first time since January. Japanese yen speculator bets surged this week (+21,891 contracts) and gained for the fifth straight week. Yen speculator positions have been in bearish territory for over a year and have been extremely week since many central banks around the world started raising their interest rates. The Bank of Japan has not raised rates and has signaled that it will not do so, creating large interest rate differentials compared to the other major currencies. Despite the spec bets increase this week, the yen exchange rate came under further pressure this week with the USDJPY price closing over the 135.00 exchange rate (and remaining near 20-year highs). Mexican Peso speculator bets fell sharply by -59,381 contracts this week and flipped the MXN speculator positioning from bullish to bearish. The weekly speculator decline is the largest fall in the past thirteen weeks and the decrease into a bearish standing is the first time since March 29th. Canadian dollar bets jumped this week by the most in the past seventy-seven weeks and brought the speculator position back into bullish territory for the first time in six weeks. CAD speculator bets have now gained for four straight weeks and the overall spec standing is residing at the highest level since July 2021. New Zealand dollar speculators also boosted their bets this week after the NZD positions had dropped in six out of the previous seven weeks. This week’s rise in weekly bets was the most in the past thirteen weeks but the overall speculator standing remains in bearish territory for the seventh straight week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (96.8 percent) are leading the strength scores and are all in extreme bullish positions. On the downside, the Mexican peso (16.1 percent) has fallen into extreme bearish positioning followed by the Japanese yen (25.9 percent) and British pound (26.7 percent) which are just above the 20 percent extreme bearish threshold. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the US Dollar Index (19.5 percent), Japanese yen (19.1 percent) and Swiss franc (18 percent) have the highest six-week trend scores currently. The Mexican peso also leads the trends on the downside with a -17.5 percent trend change. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,144 91 44,476 100 -47,736 0 3,260 52 EUR 668,164 69 -6,018 33 -28,495 68 34,513 32 GBP 238,322 63 -65,596 27 81,063 78 -15,467 24 JPY 232,513 77 -69,755 26 86,443 78 -16,688 20 CHF 39,362 20 -6,808 39 18,147 72 -11,339 19 CAD 175,219 47 23,202 65 -30,284 43 7,082 44 AUD 142,857 39 -43,254 45 44,710 52 -1,456 49 NZD 45,410 35 -6,838 60 9,773 45 -2,935 18 MXN 197,375 48 -26,381 16 23,148 82 3,233 57 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 69,931 67 47,213 97 -48,458 4 1,245 79 Bitcoin 12,242 68 1,061 100 -947 0 -114 10   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,938 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.9 2.9 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 80.9 3.8 – Net Position: 44,476 -47,736 3,260 – Gross Longs: 53,133 1,752 5,553 – Gross Shorts: 8,657 49,488 2,293 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 52.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.2 -19.1 7.1   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -56,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,543 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.9 58.3 7.5 – Net Position: -6,018 -28,495 34,513 – Gross Longs: 206,986 361,159 84,823 – Gross Shorts: 213,004 389,654 50,310 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 67.9 31.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.1 -1.1 5.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,810 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 77.2 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.8 43.2 15.1 – Net Position: -65,596 81,063 -15,467 – Gross Longs: 29,343 184,011 20,625 – Gross Shorts: 94,939 102,948 36,092 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.7 77.6 23.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -4.7 -0.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -69,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,646 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.0 75.6 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.0 38.4 16.8 – Net Position: -69,755 86,443 -16,688 – Gross Longs: 32,441 175,789 22,340 – Gross Shorts: 102,196 89,346 39,028 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.9 77.8 19.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.1 -16.5 5.7   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,132 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 66.2 22.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 20.1 51.7 – Net Position: -6,808 18,147 -11,339 – Gross Longs: 4,291 26,045 9,026 – Gross Shorts: 11,099 7,898 20,365 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.2 72.4 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.0 -19.8 17.9   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,062 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.3 45.1 16.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 62.4 12.7 – Net Position: 23,202 -30,284 7,082 – Gross Longs: 56,550 79,064 29,357 – Gross Shorts: 33,348 109,348 22,275 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 43.5 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.9 -14.4 6.3   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -43,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,896 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 59.9 14.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.4 28.6 16.0 – Net Position: -43,254 44,710 -1,456 – Gross Longs: 31,660 85,591 21,342 – Gross Shorts: 74,914 40,881 22,798 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.7 52.2 48.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.8 10.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,771 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.8 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.9 40.3 11.4 – Net Position: -6,838 9,773 -2,935 – Gross Longs: 14,894 28,062 2,236 – Gross Shorts: 21,732 18,289 5,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.8 45.5 18.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.4 -0.2 3.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -59,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,726 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.8 38.3 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 71.2 26.5 1.5 – Net Position: -26,381 23,148 3,233 – Gross Longs: 114,093 75,532 6,170 – Gross Shorts: 140,474 52,384 2,937 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.1 82.5 56.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.5 17.4 -2.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,705 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.0 12.5 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.5 81.8 2.8 – Net Position: 47,213 -48,458 1,245 – Gross Longs: 58,023 8,711 3,197 – Gross Shorts: 10,810 57,169 1,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.8 4.0 79.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -5.0 -4.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 490 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.7 0.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.0 8.2 9.2 – Net Position: 1,061 -947 -114 – Gross Longs: 9,996 62 1,008 – Gross Shorts: 8,935 1,009 1,122 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.3 -30.9 -3.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Currency market speculator bets overall were mixed this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover (Note: Russian Ruble positions have not been updated by CFTC since March) had higher positioning this week while six markets had lower contracts for the week. Leading the gains for currency markets was the Japanese yen (11,301 contracts) and the British pound sterling (2,349 contracts) with the Australian dollar (2,648 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,415 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (534 contracts) also showing positive changes on the week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-19,097 contracts) and the Euro (-9,587 contracts) with the Brazil real (-2,868 contracts), Mexican peso (-489 contracts), Swiss franc (-349 contracts) and Bitcoin (-15 contracts) also showing lower speculator positions through June 21st. Currency Position Notables: Japanese Yen large speculator bets rose for the 6th straight week this week and this improvement has brought the overall speculator standing to the least bearish level of the past 15 weeks at -58,454 contracts. Speculators have trimmed a total of 52,000 contracts off of the total bearish position in these past six weeks after the standing hit -110,454 contracts on May 10th. Yen bets have been in bearish territory since March 13th of 2021 (67 weeks running) with the highest bearish level of the cycle occurring on April 12th at a total of -111,827 contracts. Canadian dollar bets dropped sharply by -19,097 contracts this week and fell for the first time in the last five weeks. CAD speculator bets had risen over the previous four weeks by a total of +37,698 contracts. The decline this week brings the CAD speculator position into a virtual neutral level at an overall bullish position of just +4,105 contracts as the speculator position has yet to find a sustainable trend and has been alternating between bearish and bullish net positions over the past few months. The US Dollar Index rose for a 3rd straight week this week and hit a new 5-year high level at +45,010 contracts. This is the first time the overall position has topped +45,000 contracts since March 21st of 2017 and the continued bullish sentiment for the DXY has pushed the US Dollar Index strength score (3-year range) to the very top of its range (100 percent – extreme bullish). Euro positions fell for the third straight week and dropped to its most bearish level of the past 29 weeks. The strength score for the Euro has dropped to just a 30.2 percent and it seems the speculator positioning is catching up to the bearishness of the EURUSD exchange rate. The speculator net position had been at a twelve-week high on May 31st at a total of +52,272 contracts before dropping over the past three weeks to settle at -15,605 contracts this week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, ranging from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish, below 20 percent is extreme bearish and 100 percent is the top of the range) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (99.7 percent) and the Brazilian Real (94 percent) are all in extreme bullish positions. On the bearish side, the Mexican Peso is the only currency currently in an extreme bearish position with a score of 15.9 percent. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese Yen (32.0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (21.8 percent) are leading the strength trends over the past six weeks. Both of these markets have overall bearish net positions but have seen the bearish sentiment cooling off strongly. The Mexican Peso leads the downside trends for another week with a -18.6 percent score. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 58,543 86 45,010 100 -46,746 2 1,736 36 EUR 671,718 70 -15,605 30 -18,182 71 33,787 30 GBP 228,266 57 -63,247 28 77,902 76 -14,655 25 JPY 218,076 67 -58,454 33 74,349 72 -15,895 21 CHF 37,669 16 -7,157 38 14,958 67 -7,801 31 CAD 140,047 23 4,105 44 -6,578 63 2,473 35 AUD 137,017 35 -40,606 47 44,608 52 -4,002 43 NZD 42,889 30 -5,423 62 8,756 44 -3,333 13 MXN 191,265 45 -26,870 16 22,977 82 3,893 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 68,858 65 44,345 94 -45,996 6 1,651 84 Bitcoin 13,537 77 1,046 100 -995 0 -51 12   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 534 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,476 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 88.2 2.9 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 82.7 4.8 – Net Position: 45,010 -46,746 1,736 – Gross Longs: 51,606 1,676 4,522 – Gross Shorts: 6,596 48,422 2,786 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.8 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 1.6 35.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.1 -15.2 -7.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,018 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 55.6 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.4 58.3 7.7 – Net Position: -15,605 -18,182 33,787 – Gross Longs: 195,554 373,695 85,208 – Gross Shorts: 211,159 391,877 51,421 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.2 70.9 30.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.9 7.0 12.1   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -63,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 77.6 7.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.2 43.5 14.2 – Net Position: -63,247 77,902 -14,655 – Gross Longs: 28,470 177,170 17,735 – Gross Shorts: 91,717 99,268 32,390 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.4 75.8 25.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.8 -10.3 2.1   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -58,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,755 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.4 71.6 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.3 37.6 17.9 – Net Position: -58,454 74,349 -15,895 – Gross Longs: 35,864 156,248 23,099 – Gross Shorts: 94,318 81,899 38,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.9 71.9 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.0 -24.7 -2.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,808 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.1 66.2 25.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 26.5 46.4 – Net Position: -7,157 14,958 -7,801 – Gross Longs: 3,068 24,927 9,673 – Gross Shorts: 10,225 9,969 17,474 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 67.3 31.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.8 -23.7 21.2   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,202 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 47.9 20.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.2 52.6 18.9 – Net Position: 4,105 -6,578 2,473 – Gross Longs: 42,260 67,084 29,011 – Gross Shorts: 38,155 73,662 26,538 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.0 63.2 35.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.7 -7.9 0.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,254 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.2 60.2 13.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.8 27.7 16.6 – Net Position: -40,606 44,608 -4,002 – Gross Longs: 31,745 82,514 18,756 – Gross Shorts: 72,351 37,906 22,758 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.2 52.2 42.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -1.9 3.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,838 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.2 60.8 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.8 40.3 12.8 – Net Position: -5,423 8,756 -3,333 – Gross Longs: 14,652 26,056 2,145 – Gross Shorts: 20,075 17,300 5,478 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.2 43.9 13.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.7 -12.5 6.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,381 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.3 45.8 3.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 64.3 33.8 1.3 – Net Position: -26,870 22,977 3,893 – Gross Longs: 96,147 87,609 6,317 – Gross Shorts: 123,017 64,632 2,424 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.9 82.4 59.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.6 18.3 -1.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,213 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.7 14.6 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.3 81.3 2.3 – Net Position: 44,345 -45,996 1,651 – Gross Longs: 55,599 10,020 3,238 – Gross Shorts: 11,254 56,016 1,587 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.0 6.4 84.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.5 -3.9 4.7     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,061 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.5 0.6 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.8 7.9 8.1 – Net Position: 1,046 -995 -51 – Gross Longs: 10,495 78 1,048 – Gross Shorts: 9,449 1,073 1,099 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.7 0.0 11.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -11.9 -3.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Weekly Speculator Changes COT currency market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts. Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian dollar with a weekly gain of 6,021 contracts while the New Zealand dollar (1,773 contracts) and the Swiss franc (1,411 contracts) also had positive weeks. The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-8,820 contracts) and the Euro (-8,392 contracts) with the Brazilian real (-6,128 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,553 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,881 contracts), US Dollar Index (-897 contracts), Canadian dollar (-788 contracts) and Bitcoin(-591 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.     Highlighting this week’s COT currency data is the continued decline in the Euro speculator positions which fell for a second straight week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Euro bets have now dropped by -77,516 contracts in just the past six weeks, going from +52,272 contracts on May 31st to -25,244 contracts this week. This weakness put the current speculator position at the lowest level since March of 2020 but it is nowhere near the extremely bearish levels of years past (for example: -114,021 contracts in 2020 or -182,845 contracts in 2015). There seems to be a lot of room for the speculator position to fall further. Will this bring the Euro price even lower? That is a fascinating question as the largest currency news story of the past few weeks has been the EURUSD reaching parity for the first time in over twenty years. The EURUSD actually hit 0.9952 on Thursday before closing the week near the 1.0080 exchange rate and with the US Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates further soon – the EURUSD will likely remain under pressure but how low can it go? The other side of the COT data this week is the continued strength of the US Dollar Index speculator positions. The USD Index speculator bets fell this week for a third straight week but remain very much near their recent highs. Speculative positions recently had three straight weeks of over at least +40,000 net contracts for the first time since 2019 while the speculator position also topped +45,000 contracts (on June 21st) for the first time since March 21st of 2017, a span of 274 weeks. The strong sentiment for the dollar has helped boost the US Dollar Index price to a high over 109.00 this week, reaching the highest level since 2002. With the two largest components of the US Dollar Index, the Euro at 57.6 percent of the index and the Japanese yen at 13.6 percent, so weak at the moment, the DXY might challenge the 110 exchange rate in the weeks to come. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jul-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 59,565 88 38,354 89 -40,895 11 2,541 44 EUR 682,031 75 -25,244 27 5,760 78 19,484 7 GBP 231,945 59 -59,089 31 75,405 74 -16,316 22 JPY 223,539 71 -59,998 32 75,067 72 -15,069 23 CHF 41,255 23 -8,724 34 19,882 75 -11,158 20 CAD 139,297 23 3,505 43 -4,653 65 1,148 32 AUD 158,263 51 -41,600 46 52,490 58 -10,890 26 NZD 45,837 36 -5,283 62 8,979 44 -3,696 9 MXN 195,611 47 -23,238 17 20,317 81 2,921 55 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 41,034 28 10,205 60 -10,868 41 663 73 Bitcoin 13,505 77 -171 77 -201 0 372 21   Strength Scores Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (88.9 percent) leads the currency markets near the top of its 3-year range and in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (77.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets strength scores with the New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (60.4 percent) rounding out the only other markets above 50 percent or above their midpoint for the past 3 years . On the downside, the Mexican Peso (17.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the only one in a bearish extreme level.  The EuroFX (27.3 percent) continues to fall and is the second lowest strength score this week. Strength Statistics: US Dollar Index (88.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (90.4 percent) EuroFX (27.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (29.8 percent) British Pound Sterling (31.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (33.5 percent) Japanese Yen (31.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.3 percent) Swiss Franc (34.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.8 percent) Canadian Dollar (43.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (44.2 percent) Australian Dollar (46.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.7 percent) New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.4 percent) Mexican Peso (17.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (21.2 percent) Brazil Real (60.4 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (66.4 percent) Russian Ruble (31.2 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (31.9 percent) Bitcoin (77.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (87.9 percent) Strength Trends Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Swiss Franc (29.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (22.6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) round out the next highest movers in the latest trends data as the CHF, NZD and the JPY have seen improving sentiment from speculators. The Brazilian Real (-34.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Mexican Peso (-25.0 percent) followed by the Euro (-23.8 percent). Strength Trend Statistics: US Dollar Index (1.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.0 percent) EuroFX (-23.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-17.1 percent) British Pound Sterling (10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.4 percent) Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.7 percent) Swiss Franc (29.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.2 percent) Canadian Dollar (11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.1 percent) Australian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-2.0 percent) New Zealand Dollar (22.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (20.6 percent) Mexican Peso (-25.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-18.9 percent) Brazil Real (-34.5 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-22.0 percent) Russian Ruble (-15.6 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (9.1 percent) Bitcoin (-10.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-7.8 percent) Individual Markets: US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,251 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.8 3.9 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.4 72.5 4.7 – Net Position: 38,354 -40,895 2,541 – Gross Longs: 51,109 2,305 5,365 – Gross Shorts: 12,755 43,200 2,824 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.0 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.9 10.9 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.4 0.7 -13.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,852 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.9 56.5 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 55.6 9.4 – Net Position: -25,244 5,760 19,484 – Gross Longs: 197,240 385,039 83,394 – Gross Shorts: 222,484 379,279 63,910 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.3 77.7 6.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.8 25.8 -22.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,208 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.6 75.3 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.1 42.8 15.2 – Net Position: -59,089 75,405 -16,316 – Gross Longs: 33,850 174,748 18,999 – Gross Shorts: 92,939 99,343 35,315 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.4 74.3 21.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.8 -7.0 -6.7   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,445 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.9 71.8 10.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.7 38.3 17.1 – Net Position: -59,998 75,067 -15,069 – Gross Longs: 35,533 160,589 23,147 – Gross Shorts: 95,531 85,522 38,216 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.9 72.3 22.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.2 -14.6 -9.1   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,135 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 63.5 19.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.2 15.4 46.4 – Net Position: -8,724 19,882 -11,158 – Gross Longs: 7,017 26,217 7,984 – Gross Shorts: 15,741 6,335 19,142 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 4.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.4 75.2 19.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.7 -15.9 -6.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,505 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -788 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,293 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 46.4 22.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 49.8 22.0 – Net Position: 3,505 -4,653 1,148 – Gross Longs: 41,613 64,673 31,834 – Gross Shorts: 38,108 69,326 30,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.3 64.9 32.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.8 -3.6 -12.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,621 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.3 67.0 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.6 33.9 17.4 – Net Position: -41,600 52,490 -10,890 – Gross Longs: 30,527 106,112 16,570 – Gross Shorts: 72,127 53,622 27,460 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.3 58.0 25.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.6 1.0 -20.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,056 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.6 61.7 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 42.1 13.4 – Net Position: -5,283 8,979 -3,696 – Gross Longs: 14,926 28,261 2,436 – Gross Shorts: 20,209 19,282 6,132 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.4 44.2 9.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.6 -19.1 -12.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,418 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.5 43.1 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.4 32.7 1.6 – Net Position: -23,238 20,317 2,921 – Gross Longs: 104,715 84,247 6,023 – Gross Shorts: 127,953 63,930 3,102 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 17.4 81.3 55.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.0 25.2 -7.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 10,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,333 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.8 46.0 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.9 72.5 5.6 – Net Position: 10,205 -10,868 663 – Gross Longs: 19,197 18,878 2,957 – Gross Shorts: 8,992 29,746 2,294 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.4 40.7 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -34.5 35.9 -19.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 420 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.5 1.6 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.7 3.1 6.5 – Net Position: -171 -201 372 – Gross Longs: 10,325 216 1,247 – Gross Shorts: 10,496 417 875 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.2 46.1 21.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.4 17.5 6.2   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

DXY trims part of Tuesday’s intense advance above 110.00. Further bouts of strength could see the dollar retest yearly highs. DXY gives away some gains following the post-CPI sharp upside to the 110.00 region on Wednesday. Despite the ongoing knee-jerk in the dollar, its short-term bullish view remains unchanged while above the 7-month support line around 106.30. If sellers push harder, then a potential visit to the weekly low at 107.58 (August 26) could start emerging on the horizon just ahead of the interim 55-day SMA at 107.43. In the longer run, DXY is expected to maintain its constructive stance while above the 200-day SMA at 101.53. DXY daily chart  

Thus, the market may currently be at the beginning of the first part of a major bearish trend. It is assumed that the bears form a triple zigzag pattern Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ. It seems that the sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ have already been completed. In the near future, the price is expected to continue falling in the primary wave Ⓩ. Its end is possible near 101.59. At that level, it will be at 76.4% of wave Ⓨ. Let's consider an alternative option in which the formation of a cycle triple zigzag will continue. Most likely, we see a zigzag price movement in the wave z. The wave z may take the form of a zigzag Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ, where the first impulse Ⓐ and the correction Ⓑ in the form of an intermediate double zigzag are already completed. The entire wave z can complete its pattern near 116.21 level. At that level, it will be at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of wave y. The first sub-wave (1), which is part of the primary wave Ⓒ, is likely to reach the level of 107.22, marked by a minute correction.

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.15 lows during the New York session on Tuesday before finding bids again. The index is seen to be trading around 103.65 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to push higher from here. Immediate price resistance is at 105.20 as marked on the 4H chart here and a break there confirms the bottom is in place. The US dollar index has further produced a bullish divergence on the 4H RSI as marked here. This could be seen as a potential trend reversal against the recent swing low at 103.15. We need to see a candlestick pattern formation here. The minimum requirement for a three-wave corrective decline from 114.70 has been fulfilled now. If the above scenario is correct and holds well, a strong bullish reversal should be seen from current levels towards 110.00-50 at least. Short-term price support is just below 103.15, while resistance is 105.20. A break higher will add further confidence towards the bullish setup. Prices should be looking higher from current levels. Trading idea: Potential bullish reversal against 102.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 04:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/304808

Dollar bears have come out of hibernation. After gaining 16% in the first 10 months of the year, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, lost 5% in November. It has since fallen another 1%, reflecting a smaller-than-expected increase in consumer prices in November. Fed ahead In currency markets, the dollar fell again after tumbling against a range of major currencies on Tuesday. The dollar is also facing more headwinds. The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce the scale of future interest rate hikes, which would allow other central banks to close the interest rate gap that attracts investment to the United States. US interest rates, which are the lower bound on both government and corporate bond yields, range from 3.75% to 4%, which is well above rates in other major economies such as the Eurozone where the deposit rate is 1.5%, or Japan, where interest rates are actually negative. Today the Fed will make its last decision of the year. Futures pricing shows markets expect the Fed will slow the pace of hikes. The latest rate hike is expected to raise rates by 50 bp this time. Fed officials say interest rates will go up. They want investors to focus on trajectory, not pace, and are signaling that interest rates could peak above market-expected 4.8% and stay there for most of 2023. If the Fed sticks to the "higher for longer" mantra central banks in Europe, the UK and China will struggle to catch up given the volatile state of their economies. EUR/USD The EUR/USD benefited from the release of inflation data, breaking the level above 1.06. The euro rose by 0.9% yesterday, and the pan-European Stoxx 600 index saw gains of 1.29%. However, the European Central Bank is also getting ready for a 50bps rate hike tomorrow. In Europe, the ECB will announce its latest monetary policy decision tomorrow. Both the Fed and the ECB are expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, keeping the rate differential between them the same, but central banks may differ in their forecasts for the coming months. Differences in the forecasts of the two central banks for the coming months will determine where EUR/USD will trade in the short to medium term. Read next: "Candid Stories" - Instagram like BeReal? Supermarkets Are Doubling The Number Of Their Own Product Lines | FXMAG.COM GBP/USD Yesterday, GBP/USD opened the prospect of a move towards 1.2750 after breaking 1.2300. The pound rose by 0.82% against the dollar yesterday to reach a 6-month high. The upward price movement was due to newly released inflation data from the US. Today, decisions on monetary policy will be announced by the Fed, and on Thursday, next to the ECB, the Bank of England. The Bank of England will have to contend with the biggest drop in living standards in history as the energy crisis, fiscal austerity and lack of growth eat into British household budgets. After positive GDP data on Monday, UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned that the economy could get worse before it got better. While yesterday's employment figures were largely positive, they indicated a slowdown in employment as firms prepare for a tough start to 2023. The Bank of England released its Financial Stability Report yesterday, warning that 2023 will be a tough year for British households due to a combination of falling real incomes, rising mortgage costs and higher unemployment. AUD/USD The Aussie Pair benefited from lower-than-expected US inflation. Yesterday, the pair was trading low in daily levels in the 0.6733-0.6793 range. Today, the quotes are higher above 0.68, oscillating close to the highest levels in three months The lack of events on the Australian market makes the AUD/USD pair dependent on reports and events from America. USD/JPY The Japanese yen held its recent advance to below 136 per dollar. Yesterday, the USD/JPY traded above 137. The decline will occur after the release of US inflation data. The drop took place from the level of 137.2760 to the level of 135.3800. Currently, the pair is trading at a price of 135.0040.   Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com, dailyfx.com

US Dollar Index rebounds from six-month low, snaps two-day downtrend. Fed announced 50 bps rate increase, showed readiness to keep it higher for long. A reassessment of Fed’s rate bias seems favoring US Treasury yields and the greenback. Multiple central bank announcements, US Retail Sales eyed for fresh impulse. US Dollar Index (DXY) remains mildly bid around 104.00 as it prints the first daily gains in three during the early Thursday morning in Europe. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies traces the firmer US Treasury bond yields amid sluggish market sentiment. That said, the DXY initially failed to cheer the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.50% interest rate hike and the readiness to keep it higher for long as traders didn’t find anything new from the statements or Fed actions that were unexpected. However, a reassessment of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) moves highlights upward revision of inflation forecasts and a cut in the growth forecasts, as well as the 5.1% terminal rate, as the key hawkish actions and propelled the US Treasury bond yields and the DXY. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields probe a two-day downtrend near 3.50% while the two-year US bond yields also extend recovery from the monthly low while printing the first daily positive in three near 4.25%. Also likely to have stopped the US dollar’s downside could be the cautious mood ahead of the multiple central bank announcements, including from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE), etc. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures remain directionless while the Asia-Pacific shares grind lower. Moving on, the aforementioned central bank announcements will join the US Retail Sales for November, expected -0.1% MoM versus 1.3% prior, to direct short-term DXY moves. Technical analysis A one-month-old descending support line, close to 103.50 by the press time, joins the oversold RSI conditions to tease DXY bulls. Read next: From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level | FXMAG.COM Also read: US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Monthly support teases DXY bulls amid oversold RSI

US Dollar Index pares the biggest daily gain in 10 weeks amid sluggish session. Mixed US statistics, Fed’s hesitance in praising hawks keep sellers hopeful. Recession woes and Sino-American tensions keep buyers hopeful ahead of December PMIs. US Dollar Index (DXY) makes rounds to 104.30-40 as it prints mild losses heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies consolidates the biggest daily gain since early November, marked the previous day. The DXY’s failure to defend the previous day’s rebound from a six-month low could be linked to recently mixed data in the US and a lack of a major catalyst during early Friday. It’s worth noting that the US Retail Sales flashed -0.6% MoM figure in November versus 0.1% expected and 1.3% prior. Further, manufacturing survey details from Philadelphia Fed and New York Fed came in disappointing for the said month whereas Industrial Production eased in November and the Jobless Claims also dropped for the week ended on December 09. It’s worth noting that the market sentiment remains dicey as recession woes underpin the Treasury bond yields but the US stock futures and equities in the Asia-Pacific region remain lackluster ahead of the final shot of data from the big week. The reason for the lack of negative performances of equities could be linked to the hopes for more stimulus from China. With the mixed signals, the US Dollar Index fails to extend the previous day’s recovery moves. On Thursday, the global central bankers’ rush towards higher rates and readiness to keep them high for longer, to battle the inflation woes, seemed to have triggered the risk-off mood and underpinned the US Dollar demand. On the same line could be the latest Sino-American tussles as Reuters reported that the Biden administration on Thursday added Chinese memory chipmaker YMTC and 21 "major" Chinese players in the artificial intelligence chip sector to a trade blacklist, broadening its crackdown on China's chip industry. Moving on, the market forecasts surrounding the US S&P Global PMIs appear mixed as Services activities are likely to improve but not the manufacturing ones. Even so, both these sectors are expected to print the below 50 figure that suggests a contraction in activities and could weigh on the US Dollar in case of a downbeat outcome. It should be noted, however, that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hesitance in favoring the hawks, despite raising rates by 50 basis points (bps), seems to challenge the DXY bulls. Technical analysis US Dollar Index losses could be linked to the failure to cross a one-week-old descending resistance line, around 104.55 by the press time. However, RSI (14) stays near the oversold conditions and hence challenges the odds favoring major declines.

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its interest rates by 50bp as expected yesterday, and President Christine Lagarde said that the ECB will raise the rates by another 50bp at the next meeting. Then by another 50bp in the meeting after that. And another 50bp in the meeting after that. Then another one! Markets European yields spiked during Madame Lagarde’s speech. The DAX and the CAC fell more than 3%. The S&P500 slipped below its 100-DMA, as Nasdaq fell below its 50-DMA. The EURUSD spiked to 1.0736, the highest level since April. EU The significant hawkish shift in ECB’s policy stance, and the determination of the European leaders to shot inflation to the ground should continue giving some more support to the euro, therefore, price pullbacks in EURUSD could be interesting dip buying opportunities for a further rally toward the 1.10 mark. US And if the US dollar strengthened yesterday, it was certainly due to a heavy selloff in stocks and bonds that ended up with investors sitting on cash. Other than that, the data released in the US yesterday was not brilliant! The retail sales fell by most in a year; holiday shopping apparently didn’t help improve numbers. The Empire Manufacturing index tanked from 4.5 to -11, versus -1 expected by analysts. Both data hinted at a slowing economic growth in the US, which should normally boost recession fears and keep the Fed hawks at bay. And that could mean a further downside correction in the dollar in the run up to Xmas. Netflix In Individual stock news, Netflix slumped more than 8.5% on news that its new ad-supported versions didn’t kick off well, as most people preferred keeping ads away when they were in the middle of the Meghan and Harry drama! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:35 Surprise hawkishness from Christine Lagarde 3:09 … sent sovereign bonds & stocks tumbling 5:13 … should help the euro recover 7:01 … at least against the British pound 8:14 Netflix falls as ad-supported versions sees weak demand Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #hawkish #ECB #Lagarde #speech #BoE #FOMC #Fed #SNB #rate #decisions #USD #EUR #GBP #CHF #DAX #CAC #SMI #EuroStoxx50 #Netflix #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The dollar was little changed on Friday after jumping in the previous session as traders analyzed a string of central bank rate hikes and grappled with the prospect that borrowing costs could still rise. This week has been hot in central bank events. The Fed raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points on Tuesday. Jerome Powell's speech at the press conference sparked volatility in the market.Further tightening is excellent news for the US dollar. Yesterday, the ECB and the BoE also followed the Fed and raised rates by 50 bp. GBP/USD Thursday's Bank of England rate hike of 0.5 percentage point pushed base rates to highs not seen since 2008 (3.5%). But even that wasn't enough to prevent GBP/USD from its biggest daily drop in six weeks The markets interpreted the move as a "dovish" increase in interest rates, even though six of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee in London voted for it, and another member wanted stricter action. This division does not suggest that the Bank is willing to refrain from further rate hikes. Thursday's close of the day showed that GBP/USD fell convincingly below the uptrend line that had previously held back bearish enthusiasm for five weeks. This puts clear downward pressure on the pair. The pound fell on Friday against the euro and the U.S. dolar. Sterling fell 0.2% to $1.2160 against the dolar, versus the euro , the pound exchanged hands at 87.39 pence, 0.2% lower on the day. EUR/USD EUR/USD touched a post-ECB high of 1.0736 yesterday before consolidating gains around the 1.0650 area. The technical set-up for the pair remains positive. Yesterday the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 bp as expected. Thus, the rate level reached 2.50%. This level was last seen in 2008. The ECB expects it to increase further. The European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates "significantly" in the coming months to fight entrenched inflation, The ECB President Christine Lagarde said yesterday, sending a hawkish signal to the market. This signal turned out to be crucial for the strength of the euro. The ECB's hawkish stance, if fully realized, suggests that the single currency has room to grow in the coming weeks. Read next: Knorr-Bremse Strengthens Its ESG Measures In Partnership With Deutsche Bank | Arizona Is Attractive For The EV Market | FXMAG.COM USD/JPY Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fell 0.54% to 137.01 on Friday. The Japanese yen held above 137 per dollar, facing renewed pressure after the US Federal Reserve offered a more hawkish outlook on its policy. The yen clearly depreciated after the Fed meeting. However, it may fall as the Bank of Japan meeting approaches early next week (19-20/12) AUD/USD The Australian dollar fell sharply to around $0.67, facing renewed pressure as major central banks presented a more hawkish monetary policy outlook than markets anticipated, adding to fears of a potential recession next year. In the European session, it will fall even more and is below $0.67. Moreover, the latest data showed that consumer inflation expectations in Australia hit a seven-month low in December, while the country's unemployment rate remained at 3.4% in November. Investors also reacted to data showing that Australian private sector activity contracted for the third straight month in December. Source: investing.com The RBA has now raised the cash rate for eight consecutive months and said it expects further tightening to bring down inflation. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com, dailyfx.com

FX volatility remains subdued as financial markets lick their wounds ahead of year-end. This week's data calendar is relatively light in the G10 space, with a focus on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, US housing data and confidence readings on both sides of the Atlantic. We'll also see central bank meetings in Hungary and the Czech Republic, too   USD: Risk rolls over Looking across asset markets the investor mood seems to be leaning towards a 2023 slowdown. Bond markets remain bid, while both equity and commodity markets are rolling lower after a decent rally in October and November. Investors will continue to focus on China as a potential engine of growth in 2023, but for the time being, we have yet to see any material outperformance of the Chinese renminbi or local equity markets. This suggests that the risk of a disorderly exit from zero-Covid policies for the time being trumps the reopening story and perhaps Beijing's re-orientation to growth policies. That leaves the market to focus on the tight(er) monetary policy being implemented around the world. Last week's hawkish shift from the European Central Bank has dented eurozone and global growth prospects for 2023 and leaves the dollar in a rather mixed position. On the one hand, the ECB wants tighter monetary conditions - including a stronger euro. On the other, the Federal Reserve is not done with its tightening cycle and a global slowdown typically is not a good story for a pro-cyclical currency like the euro. Events this week look unlikely to break new ground on this story. In the US, we will see a variety of housing data (all expected to be soft), some consumer confidence data and on Friday the PCE personal income, spending and price data. The November core PCE deflator is expected at a subdued 0.2% month-on-month - in line with the softer CPI prints of October and November. None of this looks likely to provide much support to US bond yields, where the 10-year Treasury is hanging onto the 3.50% area by its fingernails. This all tends to suggest that DXY risks sinking back to the 104.00/104.10 area this week. Chris Turner EUR: Expect comparisons to 2007 Last week's hawkish tilt from the ECB wll invariably draw comparisons to the 2007 period, where EUR/USD enjoyed a strong rally. The Fed had concluded its tightening cycle at 5.25% in the summer of 2006 and the ECB was playing catch-up - a catch-up which resulted in former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's final and ill-fated rate hike to 3.25% in July 2008. Coincidentally, expectations now are that the ECB will also be taking the policy rate to 3.25% next summer. The difference this time is that global growth is much weaker now than in 2007 (5-6%) and we suspect high energy prices will continue eating into the eurozone's external position. On the agenda today is the Germany Ifo business confidence index for  December. Last week's release of the German PMI data showed a modest pick-up in business confidence - albeit still in recessionary territory. Today's Ifo data is expected to see the expectations component bounce up to 82 from 80 - still very low. Any upside surprise could give EUR/USD a modest boost in thin markets.  We doubt EUR/USD will break new ground this week, although it is hard to rule out a move back up the 1.0700 area. Chris Turner CEE: Last NBH and CNB meetings of the year  The CEE region will remain interesting until the last moment of the year. On Tuesday, the Hungarian National Bank (NBH) will hold its last meeting. The NBH has made it clear on several occasions that the temporary and targeted measures, introduced in mid-October, will remain in place until there is a material and permanent improvement in general risk sentiment. Although we've seen some progress here, we don't think enough has changed to trigger an adjustment in the monetary policy's hawkish "whatever it takes" setup. Nevertheless, Hungary will also be in the spotlight because of other milestones in the EU story. The European Council approved Hungary's recovery plan and suspended cohesion funds for 2021-2027 under the rule of law mechanism. The next step should be the signing of a partnership agreement between Hungary and the EC on the absorption of the cohesion funds. However, it is not clear how and when this will take place. The Czech National Bank (CNB) will hold its last meeting of the year on Wednesday. We expect it to be a non-event, with rates and FX regimes unchanged. The new forecast will not be released until February. Board members have been very open in recent days and hence there is minimal room for any surprises. The traditional dovish majority has publicly declared that interest rates are high enough and continue to choose the "wait and see" path. The governor also confirmed this week that the central bank will continue to defend the koruna. At the same time, another board member confirmed that the CNB has not been active in the market for some time. So it is hard to look for anything new here either.  In the FX market, as we mentioned last week, we believe that the global story has little positive to offer to the region this year. On the other hand, the deterioration in equity market sentiment late last week should have a delayed impact on CEE FX this week. Moreover, domestic rates with the exception of Hungary cannot support FX, so we should see some correction of previous gains in the region this week. We do not think central bank meetings will impact FX much and so the main story will be the Fed and ECB effect from last week. We see the Czech koruna as the most vulnerable as it hit new lows against the euro on Friday. A correction back to 24.250 EUR/CZK should thus not be a problem. On the other hand, we think the Hungarian forint can still benefit from the progress in the EU story for a while and get below 405 EUR/HUF. The Polish zloty remains trapped in the 4.680-700 EUR/PLN band, and we see it rather on the upper side for this week.  Frantisek Taborsky GBP: Sterling will be the main victim of euro strength The ECB would clearly like a stronger euro to help out with its battle against inflation and it was telling at last week's ECB press conference that President Christine Lagarde was keen to highlight that the ECB would be tightening longer than the Fed. If the ECB is to be successful in getting the euro higher, then the euro will need to rally against those currencies with major weights in the trade-weighted euro index. The biggest weights in this index are the US dollar (16%), the Chinese renminbi (14%) and then the British pound (12%). Of the three, we would say that sterling is the most vulnerable given that the Bank of England (BoE) is closer to ending its tightening cycle than the Fed and that the UK's large current account deficit leaves sterling vulnerable in a global slowdown. We suspect EUR/GBP finds good demand under 0.87 now and we remain happy with a 0.89 target for 1Q23. Chris Turner Read this article on THINK

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to hike by another 50 bps. Economists at HSBC still expect a final 50 bps rate hike by the Fed in early 2023 but do not expect rate cuts until 2024. They look for USD weakness during 2023. No rate cuts until 2024 “A slower hiking pace and a recognition that the Fed is in the late stages of the tightening cycle are part of why we expect further USD downside in 2023.” “If slowing US inflation allows the Fed to pare back its hawkishness further and global growth avoids an onerous slowdown, the ‘safe haven’ USD will likely weaken further from here.” “We still think that the FOMC will raise its policy rate by a final 50 bps in February 2023, while admitting upside risks. The FOMC is expected to deliver 50 bps of rate cuts in 2024 (25 bps in Q2 2024 and 25bp in Q3 2024), bringing the federal funds target range back down to 4.25-4.50% by the end of 2024.”  

A recession in the second half of 2022 was widely discussed. Overall, the entire year has proven to be very full of noteworthy events. Unfortunately, not all of them had the plus sign. The currency market, however, is unconcerned with the type of signal that one event or another had. We trade up if "plus" and down if "minus." Only the movement's direction is up for debate. The ongoing military conflict between Russia and Ukraine took up the majority of the first half of the year. Not because there aren't any battlefield events anymore, but rather because they no longer qualify as "shock" content, the media has recently stopped covering them all. Despite how absurd it may sound, the world is already accustomed to the military conflict in Ukraine, especially considering that it is not the first such conflict to occur since the Second World War. The dollar actively increased during the first half of the year against the backdrop of market anti-risk sentiment. Demand for US currency increased as a result of the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes. Together, these two elements gave the dollar strong support. However, by the end of the year, when it became apparent that the conflict in Ukraine was taking on the appearance of being a protracted one that could last for years, the European Union and the United States would not cave to Russia and would continue to support Ukraine, and that sanctions on both sides, despite hurting the economies of both, did not alter either side's position, the interest in the conflicts around the world started to wane a little. The market has already stopped retaliating violently when one of the parties makes a move on the battlefield or when missiles are fired at cities, military installations, storage facilities, or infrastructure. No one is surprised anymore by the recession. The USA, the UK, and the European Union are the most likely locations. The only remaining query is how durable and strong. Despite this, the market is no longer concerned about it now that the issue has already been thoroughly explored. Additionally, economic growth is no longer interesting because it is obvious that all economies will experience a slowdown. Only inflation is still up for debate. Since inflation is declining quickly and, more importantly, steadily, the United States is in a leading position in this area. However, this is also detrimental to the dollar because the Fed is finding it harder and harder to justify raising interest rates. As a result, demand for the euro and the pound may remain high over the next three to six months because the ECB and the Bank of England will need to raise their interest rates faster than the Fed. This presumption, however, does not eliminate the requirement to first construct a corrective set of waves and only then to construct a new upward section of the trend. I currently view this scenario as the primary one. I conclude from the analysis that the upward trend section's construction has grown more intricate and is almost finished. As a result, I suggest making sales with targets close to the estimated 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci. Although there is a strong likelihood that the upward portion of the trend will become even more extended and complicated, there is currently a signal to turn lower. The construction of a new downward trend segment is predicated on the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. Since the wave marking permits the current construction of a downward trend section, I am unable to advise purchasing the instrument. With targets around the 1.1707 mark, or 161.8% Fibonacci, sales are now more accurate. Wave e is likely finished, though it could take on an even longer form Relevance up to 06:00 2022-12-21 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330244

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.35 lows during the early Asian session on Tuesday before pulling back sharply. The index is seen to be trading close to 114.15 at this point in writing as the bulls are looking to push through the 105.50 initial resistance. The index has tested the backside of its resistance trend line at 103.56, which acts as strong support now. The US dollar index has rallied swiftly through the 104.50 high after printing a low close to 103.00 over the last week. Furthermore, the price has now taken out its initial resistance trendline and is trading into the buy zone. Ideally, the bulls should remain in control from here and push prices through 105.50, 107.00 and higher in the next few trading sessions. The US dollar index has got enough momentum to push through 110.50 in the near to medium term. If prices break above 110.50, it could confirm further upside towards 114.70 and higher as the bulls remain in control. On the flip side, a bearish turn from 110.50 might indicate that the index is heading further downward below 103.00 going forward. It is looking higher from here in the near term though. Trading idea: Potential bullish turn against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305533

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.36 lows on Tuesday before finding support again. The index is seen to be trading close to 103.75 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to break above the 104.50-60 interim resistance. The near-term projections are towards 105.70 and 107.10 respectively, taking out immediate resistances as marked on the 4H chart here. The US dollar index might have carved a meaningful bottom around 103.00 last week. The index has carved an upswing between 103.07 and 104.50 levels, which has been followed by a corrective drop back towards 103.36 recently. If the above short-term wave structure holds well, the bulls will remain inclined to push through 107.10 in the next few trading sessions. The US dollar index seems to have completed its corrective decline towards 103.36 and bounced off higher producing a Morning Star candlestick pattern. A high probability remains for prices to hold above 103.07 and push higher towards 105.50 and 107.10 in the next few weeks. The possibility remains for a push through 110.50 going forward. Trading idea: Potential rally towards 107.00 against 102.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/305723

US Dollar Index takes offers to refresh intraday low, breaks one-week-old ascending trend line. Bearish MACD signals allow sellers to aim for the previous weekly low, also the lowest level in six months. 100-SMA, weekly top add to the upside filters even if buyers manage to cross support-turned-resistance line. US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats towards the weekly low, marked the previous day, taking offers to refresh the intraday low near 103.83 during early Thursday in Europe. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies breaks a one-week-old ascending support line, now resistance near 103.92, while approaching the six-month low marked in the last week. It’s worth noting that the bearish MACD signals and a U-turn from 104.93 during early weekdays also favor the DXY sellers to approach the multi-day low surrounding 103.40. During the fall, the weekly bottom near 103.80 and horizontal support around 103.60 could test the US Dollar Index bears. Additionally, the DXY’s sustained weakness past 103.40 will highlight the 103.00 round figure ahead of directing bears toward the May 2022 low near 101.30. On the contrary, the previous support line around 103.92 precedes the 104.00 round figure to restrict short-term US Dollar Index rebound. Following that, the 100-SMA and the weekly top could challenge the DXY bulls around 104.75 and 104.95 in that order. Also acting as an upside filter is the 105.00 round figure, a break of which could welcome DXY bulls targeting the monthly high of 105.82. US Dollar Index: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected

he Dollar King was back in 2022. Will anything change in 2023? And how will safe haven assets fare in this context of high inflation and geopolitical tensions? Gold & Oil: is further strength still on the table?   Find out all the answers in our Market Outlook 2023! 00:00 Intro 00:29 How impressive was the 2021-2022 US dollar rally? Could it extend in 2023 or will it extinguish? 2:47 Japanese yen was the worst G20 performer of 2022. What's next for the yen and the BoJ? 5:29 Has the Swiss National Bank given up on its fight against the strong franc? 7:35 Why did Gold perform so poorly in a year of rising inflation and geopolitical tensions? 10:53 Wasn't Crude Oil supposed to grow to $200pb? Is further oil strength still on the table? 15:33 What's the trade of 2023? You can find the first part of the Outlook 2023 Stocks & Indices here: https://youtu.be/OIMXEAxIRrE Glenn began his investment management career in 1997 and has managed private client and family office wealth ever since. Glenn is the Founder & Managing Director of Harver Capital, an active macro investment manager at www.harvercapital.com. Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 at the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high-net-worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst at the London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as a Senior Analyst in 2020. _____ #swissquote #forex #forextrading #commodities #inflation #crudeoil #chf #usd _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars, and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      

Almost at the end of an active trading week (ahead of the Christmas holidays), the dollar remains under pressure. At the same time, the dollar index (DXY) does not leave attempts to update new (since the end of June) lows. Last week, DXY futures touched the 103.40 mark, the lowest since June 29, and this week they again came close to it three times (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). As of writing, DXY was at 103.69, 26 points above today's low. Market participants are still under the impression of the Fed meeting, which ended last week. As we know, Fed officials decided to reduce the pace of monetary policy tightening, raising the interest rate by 0.50% (after raising the rate by 0.75% in June, July, September, November). And although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tried to dispel doubts that market participants had about the tough prospects for monetary policy and the dollar strengthened the day after the meeting, in general, the dollar index continues to develop downward dynamics that originated in October. As we noted in one of our recent reviews, many economists are already predicting the Fed will cut the size of the rate hike again in early 2023, moving on to 0.25% hikes in February and March. And this is a harbinger of a deeper drop in DXY. The first signal for new short positions will be a breakdown of the local support level and 50 EMA on the weekly chart of the DXY index (CFD #USDX in the MT4 trading terminal), passing through 104.50, and the 104.00 "round" support level. As you can see, both support levels have been broken, and the sellers of the dollar and DXY index are trying to gain a foothold in the zone below the 104.00 mark to push it lower towards the 100.00 "round" support level. A breakdown of the 98.40 key support level will finally break the DXY bullish trend. As for today's economic calendar, a whole block of important macro statistics for the United States will be released at 13:30 GMT. In addition to the final releases on GDP, price indices for the 3rd quarter (the data should confirm the growth of indicators), the weekly report on the state of the U.S. labor market will be published with data on the number of jobless claims. The state of the labor market (together with GDP and inflation) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy. Initial and continuing claims for benefits are expected to remain at pre-pandemic lows, which is also positive for the dollar, indicating the stability of the U.S. labor market. In view of this, we should expect the dollar to rise during the American trading session. However, we also need to be prepared for its decline, especially if the data does not live up to expectations, or revised for the worse. Tomorrow, market participants will closely follow the publication (also at 13:30 GMT) of data on orders for durable goods in the U.S. and Americans' personal income/spending data. All these are important indicators for the dollar. In other words, an active increase in volatility is expected at the end of the week, giving us some interesting trading opportunities.     search   g_translate     Relevance up to 11:00 2022-12-23 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330542

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rose through the 104.24 high during the New York session on Thursday before it faced mild resistance. The index has eased off a bit and is seen to be trading close to 104.00 at this point in writing. The bulls are looking poised to push through the 105.50 initial resistance in the near term, provided that 103.00 holds good. The US dollar index might have carved a significant bottom close to the 103.00 mark last week. The corrective drop, which began from the 114.70 high, looks complete around 103.00, printed last week. If the above structure holds well, the bulls will remain in control from here on and push through 105.50 and 107.00 levels in a few coming sessions. On the flip side, if the index is ready to produce a much deeper correction lower below 103.00, we can expect prices to produce a pullback/corrective rally at least towards 110.50 in the near term. The bears might be back in control thereafter, targeting below 103.00. Either way, the bias is looking higher in the near term. Trading idea: Potential rally against 102.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306092

The dollar fluctuated on Friday and was little changed in morning trading in London after two days of gains, as investors weighed up the outlook for interest rates following the release of stronger than expected U.S. economic data on Thursday. The dollar index has dropped more than 8% since hitting a 20-year high in September, with a sharp slowdown in U.S. inflation raising hopes that the Fed may soon end its tightening cycle. A second report said the U.S. economy rebounded in the third quarter at a pace faster than previously estimated. In today's economic calendar, the focus is solely on US economic data. EUR/USD The euro was up slightly against the dollar, standing 0.1% higher at $1.061, after slipping less than 0.1% on Thursday. The pair traded low yesterday around 1.06, sometimes falling below this level. Today, the pair is recovering and trading above 1.06 again, mainly in the 1.0610-1.0620 range GBP/USD The cable pair is trading around 1.20. It is now up and trading close to $1.21, 1.2070 to be exact. Yesterday, the price of the pair fell even below 1.20, today it is recovering, similarly to the euro pair. It grows especially during the European session. Yesterday’s UK GDP brought about the first quarter of negative growth for the UK economy in 2022. In addition, strike action in the UK, dishing household income in the midst of elevated inflation makes conditions tough for the Bank of England (BoE) but may likely end rate hikes sooner than the Federal Reserve. Read next: Migration Of Sports From Traditional Television To Streaming Is Chugging Ahead- The NFL Sunday Ticket On YouTube| FXMAG.COM USD/JPY USD/JPY holds trade above 132. And like the other major currency pairs, it is trading much higher today than it did at the end of yesterday. The Japanese yen was down 0.2% at 132.62 to the dollar. Yet the Japanese currency was on track for a weekly gain of around 3% after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) tweaked a key bond market policy earlier this week. Former deputy finance minister Eisuke Sakakibara said in an interview with Bloomberg that he sees USD/JPY could rise to 120. Earlier this year, he said USD/JPY could rise to 150. In October it was just over 152, its highest level since 1990. And maybe this time his predictions will come true. He also believes the BoJ may raise the yield curve control limit at the January meeting. Further tightening of monetary policy by the BoJ may not be what some market participants expect, and further hawkish attitude may come as a surprise. The Japanese yen is a little confused after CPI figures bring pressure on building prices for the country's archipelago. The headline CPI was the highest in 30 years and by the end of November amounted to 3.8% yoy. It was below expectations at 3.9%, but above standard at 3.7%. AUD/USD The Australian pair traded below $0.67 yesterday. Today she tried to cross that level again. I managed to get over it for a while. Currently, the pair is below $0.67, 0.6696 to be exact. The Australian dollar traded below $0.67 facing renewed pressure as better-than-expected US data bolstered the case for further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, a recent rise in local bond yields has saved the Australian from further losses as an unexpected hawkish turn from the Bank of Japan fueled expectations that Japanese investors could shed Australian debt to bring some funds back home. Source: dailyfx.com, investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

The US dollar was one of the winning trades of 2022, peaking in September at a 20-year high, gaining about 20% against a basket of currencies. But will it dominate next year amid a slower interest rate cycle, recession fears and other external factors such as China's reopening? The current year for the U.S. dollar began with bullish sentiment, which intensified when the Federal Reserve began an aggressive tightening cycle in March. Since then, the Fed has raised a total of 425 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25–4.5%. The Fed has been one of the main drivers of the U.S. dollar. On top of that, the poor stock market performance prompted many investors to use the dollar as a safe-haven currency. Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to a near 20-year high above 114 in September. Looking to 2023, the Fed remains hawkish despite a slightly smaller 50 basis point increase this month compared to a 75 basis point increase in the previous four meetings. At the December press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said: "We've raised 425 basis points this year, and we're into restrictive territory. It's now not so important how fast we go. It's far more important to think about what is the ultimate level. And ... how long do we remain restrictive? That will become the most important question." The key question for the U.S. dollar next year is how long the Fed will need to maintain higher rates. According to the Fed's latest economic forecasts, the average federal funds rate forecast for next year is 5.1%, with GDP projected at 0.5% and PCE inflation slowing to 3.1% in 2023. Strong dollar by the beginning of 2023 Many analysts see the future in USD trading early to mid next year, with central bank meetings and inflation data setting the tone for 2023. "FX markets are assuming that central banks can signal the all-clear on inflation and deliver gentle easing cycles to ensure soft landings in 2023. We suspect the reality will not be quite as kind to financial markets," said ING's FX strategists Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole. "We back a stronger dollar into early 2023." Wells Fargo views 2023 as the dollar's "last hurrah" before the start of a bearish trend. "The greenback can experience a bout of renewed strength into early 2023. With the Fed likely to deliver more hikes than markets are priced for, a hawkish Fed should support the greenback," said Wells Fargo 2023 Outlook. "We believe the Fed is likely to deliver more interest rate hikes than financial markets are priced for, and indeed more tightening than many other central banks." However, by the middle of next year, the outlook is changing as the U.S. economy begins to slow down, putting pressure on the dollar. "Starting in the middle of next year, we believe growth differentials between the United States and major foreign economies should start to favor international G10 countries, and these growth dynamics should be a contributing force to a sustained dollar depreciation," Wells Fargo said. "We expect the United States to enter recession only during the second half of next year." Relevance up to 10:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/330654

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.50-60 support range during the Asia session on Tuesday as consolidation continues. The index is seen to be trading close to the 103.60 level at this point in writing as bears might be testing support for the last time before giving up. A push above 104.40 will confirm that bulls are back in control and a meaningful bottom is in place above 103.00. The US dollar index might have completed its corrective drop, which began from the 114.70 highs earlier. The last wave of correction seems to have terminated just above the 103.00 mark and prices bounced higher through 104.50 thereafter. If the above structure holds well, bulls will be poised to come back strong and push through 105.50 and 107.00 respectively. The index remained subdued within a tight range between 103.40 and 104.30 as seen on the 4H chart presented here. The recent drop to the 103.50-60 zone could be the last wave before a bullish breakout occurs. Prices are expected to push through 107.00 at least if not higher further. Watch out for resistance around 110.50 going forward. Trading plan: Potential rally against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306387

It has been quite a quiet start to the week with many major markets still closed for Xmas holiday, but no one saw Santa coming this year, have you? Japan, Azazon, USD On the contrary, the Bank of Japan led drama across the global financial markets reminded that the year will certainly not end on a positive footage, Amazon became the first US megacap to lose more than a trillion USD in market cap, and the expectations for the S&P500 are very much mixed… …even though the last trading week of the year is expected to be marked by a ‘Santa rally’. US PCE data, China A few encouraging news could, indeed, give a minor boost to equity markets, among them the softer US PCE data, and the Chinese reopening news despite hundreds of millions of new Covid cases that threaten a smooth coming back. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 Kuroda bangs the last nail on Santa’s coffin 4:16 US inflation gives further easing signs 5:19 But stock investors may not get too excited… 6:17 Amazon lost $1 trillion market cap 8:28 Expect thin trading before year-end 8:56 Hectic China reopening could still boost crude oil Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #hawkish #BoJ #ECB #Fed #USD #EUR #GBP #JPY #Amazon #crudeoil #China #Covid #reopening #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The United States Dollar Index on the 4-hour chart seems to be moving in ranging conditions in the range of 103.42-104.90 which has also been confirmed by the movement of the Moving Average which is moving in the range of the body of the Candlestick, this is understandable given that there are not many market participants. which is still in the Christmas and New Year holiday season but based on the CCI indicator which managed to break above the -100 level and above level 0 which indicates that the condition of Buyers is still more dominant than Sellers plus there is a deviation between price movements and the CCI indicator, it seems that in In the near future, USDX will try to test a level above its current price, namely 104.75 as its first target and 104.90 as its second target, but given the low volatility if USDX falls below the 103.72 level, it is very likely that the scenario described earlier will become invalid and cancel itself.   Relevance up to 05:00 2022-12-29 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/116511

Technical outlook: The US dollar index slipped through 103.58 lows intraday on Tuesday before finding support again. The index is seen to be trading close to 103.90 at this point in writing as bulls remain inclined to push beyond the 104.40-50 interim resistance zone. Prices are poised to produce a sharp bullish breakout as long as 103.00 interim support holds well. The US dollar index reversed from 114.70 highs earlier to produce a corrective drop. The three-wave decline might have terminated around 103.00 levels as seen on the 4H chart here. The index rallied through 104.50 thereafter, before getting range bound. It could be into its last phase of consolidation as bulls remain in control ahead of 103.00. The US dollar index is likely to touch 105.50 and 107.00, taking out interim resistances as projected on the chart. If the corrective drop is complete at 103.00, prices would resume an uptrend and rise above 114.70 in the next few weeks. Alternatively, the index might find resistance around the 110.00-50 zone and turn lower again. Trading plan: Potential rally against 103.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306531

US Dollar Index retreats from intraday high, struggles to defend DXY bulls after snapping two-day downtrend. San Francisco Fed’s Researcher rules out US recession, mixed data probe hawkish Fed concerns. Receding optimism for China unlock announcements jostle with boring performance of yields to restrict DXY moves. US Dollar Index (DXY) takes offers to reverse the early day gains around 104.20 as European traders brace for Wednesday’s work amid the holiday mood. The sluggish markets also take clues from the lack of major data/events, as well as mixed concerns surrounding China and the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, receding hopes of the US economic slowdown keeps DXY bulls hopeful. Earlier in the day, a Researcher from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Economic Research Department ruled out odds favoring the US economic slowdown for at least the upcoming two quarters. Talking about the day, Monday’s US economic releases mentioned that the Good Trade Balance for November improved to $-83.3B versus $98.8B prior. However, the US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for October dropped to 8.6% YoY versus 9.7% expected and 10.4% previous readings. Elsewhere, the US raised doubts about China’s latest Covid-linked moves and probes the risk-on mood. The dragon nation initially ruled out the quarantine requirement for inbound travelers before stating that the nation will resume citizens' applications for ordinary passports for tourism and visits abroad from January 8, 2023. Even so, a US Official mentioned, per Reuters, that the US government may impose new COVID-19 measures on travelers to the United States from China over concerns about the "lack of transparent data" coming from Beijing. While portraying the mood, the US Treasury yields remain stable while the stock futures print mild gains. Moving on, a light calendar and lack of major macros may allow the DXY traders to pare recent gains. That said, the US Pending Home Sales for November which holds the market consensus of 0.6% versus -4.6% previous readings will decorate the calendar and should be eyed amid a lack of major data/events for fresh impulse. Even so, major attention will be on the concerns surrounding Fed and China, not to forget the US Treasury bond yields. Technical analysis Despite the latest failure to defend DXY bulls, Tuesday’s bullish Doji candlestick suggests further recovery unless the quote drops back below the recent low of 103.88.    

Yesterday, Russia finally responded to the EU’s price cap on its oil exports, saying that they will simply stop exporting their oil to parties that ‘directly or indirectly use the mechanism of setting a price cap’. Crude Oil The latter announcement gave a minor boost to crude oil yesterday, but the barrel of American crude remained offered into the 50-DMA, near $81.60pb, and the price is back below the $80pb this morning. BUT, an eventual decrease in Russian oil supply gives support to the oil bulls’ in the medium run, along with other factors as China reopening and cold winter in America. China reopening news IMPORTANT to note: If the Chinese reopening story is positive for oil and commodity prices - and for the massively battered Chinese stocks, it’s bad news for global inflation. This is why we don’t see the US stocks gain on China reopening news, but we rather see them under a decent pressure, as the surge in Chinese demand will certainly boost inflation through higher energy and commodity prices. Inflation And in response to higher inflation, the central banks will continue hiking rates. As a result, the sovereign bond yields are higher, the stocks are lower, while the US dollar is mixed. Apple And Tesla Apple is down to lowest levels since summer 2021, and Tesla’s deep dive deepens by the day. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:44 Russians won't sell oil to parties involved in price cap 3:32 China reopening story is not all rosy! 6:03 Bitcoin hash rate rings alarm bell 7:30 Tesla races to the bottom Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Russia #oil #ban #China #Covid #reopening #crudeoil #rally #inflation #expectations #USD #EUR #AUD #XAU #Bitcoin #Apple #Amazon #Tesla #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  

The US Leading Index is pointing to the possibility of a bigger Dollar fall in 2023 than expected, Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, reports. An old-school indicator warning of trouble ahead for the Dollar  “I have plotted the 6-month change in the Leading Index against quarterly GDP since the late 1970s. The 6-month change in the index, at -4.4, is clearly in territory that in the past has preceded the economy slipping into recession at some point in the next two or three quarters.” “The Dollar has risen a long way since 2008 as the US economy has outperformed Europe, and while currency markets are all about relative growth, relative monetary policy and other relative measures, a US recession in 2023 would see the Dollar fall further than anyone expects, particularly if Santa Claus were to find a way to give us peace on earth at some point next year.”

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.50 lows again intraday on Wednesday before finding support. The index produced a rally towards 104.20 thereafter, as bulls came back strong in control. It is seen to be trading close to the 104.05 levels at this point in writing as bulls prepare for the next near-term target around 105.50 and 107.00 respectively. The US dollar index has been consolidating within a contracting triangle since printing lows around the 103.00 mark as seen on the 4H chart. Prices did manage to rally through the 104.40 levels before drifting sideways and it looks like the last wave could terminate ahead of the 103.50 mark. Once complete, prices could produce a bullish breakout and a push through 104.50 will be confirmed. The US dollar index seems to have completed its larger degree corrective drop, which began from the 114.70 levels, around 103.00 mark recently. If the above holds well, prices will stay above 103.00 and continue pushing higher towards 114.70 and beyond. Alternatively, prices could find resistance at 110.00-50 range before reversing lower again. Trading plan: Potential rally against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 05:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306677

Technical outlook: The US dollar index slipped through the 103.56 lows during the New York session on Thursday holding above its range low at 103.50. The index is seen to be trading close to the 103.65 mark at this point of writing as bulls are seemed to be poised to hold prices above the 103.40-50 range. A break above 104.40 is still required to confirm a bullish breakout though. The US dollar index might have terminated its last wave of the sideways consolidation at the 103.56 mark. If it is correct, prices would stay above 103.50 and go higher above 104.50 to break on the north side. Please note that a minimum projected target is 105.50 and 107.00 thereafter. Bulls remain poised to come back in control and hold prices above the 103.00 mark. Also, note that the larger degree corrective drop from 114.70 looks complete at 103.00. If the structure holds well, bulls will remain inclined to push prices towards 114.70 and further, and complete its two-year rally that began from the 89.50 level. Either way, we can expect a rally from here at least towards 107.00 and 110.50, if not further. Trading plan: Potential rally against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 04:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306813

Markets worth watching US stock indices: US500, US100 There is an ongoing debate about the relationship between stock markets and inflation. Stocks are holding instruments covered by the real assets of the companies that issued them. Because inflation reflects increase in the prices of goods and services, should eventually translate into revenues of companies selling these goods and services. From this perspective, stocks can be seen as a hedge against inflation. However, looking at history, we can confidently say that there is no linear relationship between company earnings and stock prices. So-called the price-to-sales ratio can fluctuate significantly for a number of reasons. After first, even if higher prices translate into higher revenues, costs can increase in even faster pace. A period of high inflation creates a lot of uncertainty and some companies can not be able to maintain the current profit margin. Second, the stock market is always trying discount the future. And if that discounting is done using higher rates interest rates - typical of higher inflation - the present value of future gains will be lower. Because periods of high inflation in the US are rare and far apart in time, there is no such thing confirmed relationship. The S&P 500 hit a ten-year low in October 1974, just before the peak of inflation that year. However, the markets were much more overvalued back then - the index fell from the peak (in 1973) to the trough of 50%, and the price-earnings ratio was below 8 - almost 3 times lower than today. Moreover, the Fed has started to cut interest rates in November 1974, thus supporting the bull rally. Precious metals: GOLD, SILVER Commodities are considered a leading indicator of inflation as the prices of goods and even services are in highly dependent on raw material costs. Therefore, there is a belief that raw materials are a good hedge against inflation, and the first example that comes to mind is gold. Is it really so? Gold is an excellent diversifier for an investment portfolio due to its low and even negative correlation with other asset classes. But what about inflation? Gold tends to respond to relative dollar strength as well as changes in bond yields. We can see a very strong negative correlation between gold price changes and profitability bonds in the long term. Therefore, we are dealing with a relatively weak sentyment against gold in an environment of the highest inflation in the US in 40 years. Of course, gold can too respond to other risk factors, such as natural disasters or war, which the world unfortunately experienced this year, which for a short time pushed gold prices to historical levels maxima. As mentioned earlier, the key factors for the price of gold are changes in the level yields and valuation of the dollar. Further changes are the most important for the dollar and bond yields Fed interest rates. The dollar already seems to be very overbought, especially if we will look at historical standards and this could be an opportunity for gold. Of course, gold is still there relatively expensive in nominal terms, but high bond yields led to a significant drop in gold prices from near historical highs. Moreover, correcting prices for inflation, gold is not extremely expensive compared to the 1970s or even 1970s 2011. It is also worth mentioning that gold often retains its value during periods of recession, especially when compared to more volatile assets such as stocks.

The Fed and central banks around the world have been raising interest rates to fight soaring inflation stemming from supply chain problems related to the COVID-19 pandemic and an energy crisis related to oil producer Russia's Ukraine invasion. As a result, all three major averages registered their biggest one-year percentage declines since the 2008 financial crisis. Along with domestic worries, investors around the world have also been monitoring China, the world's second biggest economy, for signs of weakness. The dollar was on track to record its best year since 2015 on Friday on the last trading day of the year, dominated by Federal Reserve rate hikes and fears of a sharp slowdown in global growth. Since March, the Fed has raised interest rates by a total of 425 basis points in an attempt to stem rising inflation. The last trading week of the year is behind us. How the major currency pairs fared. GBP/USD The cable pair ended the last week of the year in bullish sentiment. The week the GBP/USD pair started trading below $1.21 at 1.2050. The pair traded mostly in the 1.20-1.21 range. The highest level of the pair reached the level above the upper limit of the crossbody, i.e. 1.2113. The highest was at 1.2003 and came before the weekly high. The British pound ended 2022 nearly 11% lower at $1.2, its worst year since the Brexit vote in 2016, amid a general cautious mood regarding the economic outlook for 2023, political uncertainty, and as a hawkish Fed sent the USD higher. The pound recovered since then after Rishi Sunak became the new prime minister but remains under heavy pressure, as the recession is looming while the Bank of England appears more dovish compared with its peers. Read next: ESG - Business Management For The Common Good| FXMAG.COM  EUR/USD EUR/USD traded above 1.06 but below 1.07. The pair started the week at 1.0630 and ended at 1.0712. The highest level reached at the end of the trade exceeding 1.07. The lowest level was still above 1.06 - 1.0611. AUD/USD The Australian pair, similarly to the euro pair, managed to break the upper level of resistance, which was at the level of 0.67. Thus, the couple ended the week on the highest level. The lowest level was at the beginning of the week (0.6699). Then the pair received support from information from China and thus grew above 0.67. USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair traded mostly around 132. It peaked above 132 at 134.420 and the low was below 131 (130.8210). The pair ended the last week of the year at 131.1050 The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is considering raising its January inflation forecast to show price growth close to its 2% target for fiscal years 2023 and 2024, the Nikkei reported on Saturday. This month, the BOJ launches an extension of its 10-year yield caps, which is officially intended to straighten out bond market disruptions, but some analysts see them as a way out of ultra-loose monetary easing. Japan's core consumer prices excluding fresh food in November hit their highest since 1981, according to last week's government data. The BOJ will release its latest quarterly growth and price forecasts after its next policy meeting on Jan. 17-18. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com, dailyfx.com

On the 4th hour chart looks like #USDX move inside Bearish Pitchfork channel where in the near future #USDX will try to break below the 103.36 level. If this level is successfully broken, USDX will potentially continue its decline to the 103.02 level but if it turns out that on its way to the target levels, a significant correction suddenly occurs to break above the level. 104.07, it is certain that the reduction scenario described earlier will become invalid and cancel itself.   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-01-03 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/116741

Technical outlook: The US dollar index has dropped to 103.12, inching closer to the recent swing low at 103.07. The drop between 104.50 and 103.12 looks corrective. Until prices stay above 103.12, we expect the instrument to rally towards 107.00 and the 110.00-50 range going forward. The index is seen to be trading at 103.12 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to come back in control soon. The US dollar index has completed a three-wave drop at 103.07, which had begun from the 114.70 highs earlier. If the above larger-degree wave structure holds well, the next move could be higher from here with the index pushing above 114.70 in the next several weeks. A push through 104.50 would open the door to test 105.50 and 107.00 in the near term. Alternatively, if the drop from 114.70 needs to unfold further lower below 103.00, prices would find resistance around 107.00 and the 110.00-50 range before the bears are back in control. Either way, prices are expected to produce a rally from current levels at least towards 107.00 and the 110.00-50 range. A break above 103.70 would be welcomed by the bulls. Trading idea: Potential rally against 103.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 07:00 2023-01-30 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/306974

Summary:  Today, we look at how markets closed last year, noting the weakening of the US dollar in to year-end even as US treasury yields backed up into year end. Despite those higher yields, USDJPY trades near multi-month lows in anticipation of the Bank of Japan and the Fed moving in opposite directions with their policy for the balance of this year. Elsewhere, we dive into commodity positioning and the energy market as mild weather continues to drive gas and power prices down in Europe while crude oil actually rallied. A look at energy stories to track this year and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com. Source: Podcast: First weeks of a New Year often pivotal | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, notes that EUR/USD stays near 6-month highs to start the new year and the US Dollar Index holds near six-month lows Eurozone is facing a recession "USD weakness remains the dominating subject on the FX market. Because the market still does not believe the Fed’s affirmations that it will not cut the key rate. It has revised its expectations a little since the last FOMC meeting, but not substantially." "This mistrust must not surprise, as the FOMC members have been incorrect with their forecasts too many times in the past. I still remember very clearly their – in retrospect – absurd dots from 2009 and the following years." Read next: Twitter Did Not Pay $136,260 Rent, Microsoft Reported Its Worst Quarterly Results In Years| FXMAG.COM "In contrast all those who celebrated New Year’s eve in a T-shirt in Europe are likely to feel less concerned about a shortage of gas. This factor that had been putting pressure on the euro, which had already eased in Q4, is thus disappearing even more quickly." "Of course, the Eurozone is facing a recession. However, if this is one that is “only” due to a tightening of monetary policy it will not be as damaging for the EUR exchange rates as a recession caused by a shortage of gas would have been." "And in comparison to the US where the real economy is having to deal with a much more aggressive Fed monetary policy the FX market seems to consider the ECB's policy as not that unattractive any longer." "Our colleagues in macro research like to refer to the long-term risks of inflation of the more cautious ECB interest rate policy. These dangers are not likely to be concrete enough for the FX market yet. It will take some time yet before it prices these in. I am not sure whether that will become an issue this year or whether that is more likely to become the subject of my outlook for 2024."

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 103.12 lows on Monday before finding support. The index tested its recent swing low but did not break below 103.07, holding the bullish structure intact. It is seen to be trading close to 103.25 at this point in writing as the bulls remain poised to resume higher towards 105.50 and 107.00 levels respectively in the near term. The US dollar index seems to have also completed its larger-degree downswing, which began from the 114.70 highs earlier. The corrective wave might have terminated just ahead of 103.00 as the bulls are now looking to come back in control. A push above 104.50 will confirm that a higher low is in place at 103.12 and that prices are looking higher from here. The US dollar index might be looking to resume its larger-degree upswing and push beyond the 114.70 highs in the next few weeks. Alternatively, if the drop from 114.70 is still incomplete, prices could pull back and find resistance around 107.00 and 110.00-50. The bears might come back in control thereafter and drag prices below 103.00. Either way, we expect a pullback rally at least in the near term. Trading idea: A potential rally against 103.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 04:00 2023-01-31 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307089

Summary:  Today, we remind traders that the market action doesn't really start for much of global liquidity until today's opening of UK and US markets, with Japan not even set to start trading until tomorrow. This makes the JPY volatility in particularly difficult to interpret in thin markets. Most of the USD move that has unfolded this morning did so during and after the recording of this podcast, but we suggest that it is important to wait for the US data on Friday for a firmer sense of where the market stands on the US dollar and other markets, including gold. Today we also discuss the important year ahead for Tesla, with more products and platforms in the mix than at any time in its history, contrasting its outlook with that of Volkswagen. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher   Read next:The Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) Will Impose A Fine Of $2.2 Million On Tesla Inc| FXMAG.COM If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source:Podcast: 2023 really starts today and tomorrow | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

The New Year started with the IMF Chief Georgieva warning that the global economy faces ‘a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind’. German PMI German PMI data pointed at a faster than expected contraction in manufacturing activity in December, while the European manufacturing PMI came in at 47.8, in line with expectations. European markets This being said, trading in European markets was rather optimistic on the first trading day of the year, as European nat gas futures eased on mild weather. Forex The US dollar index kicked off the year on a subdued note, letting the dollar-yen tip a toe below the 130 mark. The EURUSD however, couldn’t build on gains above the 1.07 mark, while Cable remained steady-ish a touch above its 200-DMA, which stands near 1.2030 level. Gold Gold jumped to $1843 per ounce despite the positive pressure on the yields recently, while oil remained offered into the 50-DMA, which stands a touch below the $81 per barrel mark. Bitcoin Trading in Bitcoin remains boring. US data and OPEC On the economic data front, we will watch FOMC minutes, US jobs data, and OPEC meeting this week. EV On individual stocks front, carmakers announce their Q4 deliveries. Tesla hit a fresh record, but the number of cars delivered last quarter fell short of expectations, while Rivian reportedly doubled production in the final quarter of 2022 to hit its 25’000 yearly target. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:17 IMF warns that 2023 could be tougher than 2022 1:31 Chinese data disappoint 2:42 But European stocks remain bid 4:41 FOMC minutes & US jobs will give direction 6:07 US crude tests 50-DMA resistance 7:33 Tesla's record Q4 deliveries fall short of expectations Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #HappyNewYear #2023 #IMF #warning #economic #recession #China #Covid #energy #crisis #USD #EUR #JPY #Bitcoin #XAU #Tesla #Rivian #deliveries #FOMC #minutes #OPEC #US #jobs #data #NFP #DAX #CAC #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The US dollar appreciated, mainly due to the minutes from the December meeting of the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points last month after four consecutive increases of 75 basis points in a year, but said it may have to keep interest rates higher for longer to bring inflation under control. Minutes from the December Fed meeting are due to be released on Wednesday, with investors looking for clues as to what rate path is likely to be taken in 2023. The market seems to be struggling to interpret the change in China's Covid-19 strategy. On the one hand, it is predicted that it is likely to unleash the world's second largest economy and its associated supply chains. The Chinese data remains soft and the Caixin manufacturing PMI released today came in with a narrow miss. In December it was 49.0 instead of 49.1 forecast and 49.4 earlier. Moreover, there was a desire from the Chinese side for better relations with the US after their foreign minister said they would look for more open channels of communication. It is worth noting, however, that the exchanges point to a risky market environment, which usually makes it difficult for the US dollar to find demand. USD/JPY The Japanese yen continued to strengthen today with USD/JPY dipping below 130 for the first time since June last year. It has now returned to trading above 130 and is close to 131. The yen, which hit a seven-month high during the Asian trading hours, was recently trading low at 130.45 to the dollar. The pair's decline was mainly driven by a new Japanese yen buying spurt as US equities futures fell at the open and bolstered safe-haven inflows into the yen. Speculation that the BoJ was about to start moving away from its very lax policy flared up in December when the central bank extended the yield cap on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGB). This was further reinforced by the Nikkei report on Saturday. Read next: The Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) Will Impose A Fine Of $2.2 Million On Tesla Inc| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD GBP/USD drops below the key 1.2000 level for the first time in 4 weeks as the dollar index recovers. Today's morning drop in GBPUSD is due to the recovering dollar index. The risk-positive market environment does not appear to be helping sterling find support so far. As noted above, the decline is attributable to the stronger dollar and not to UK-specific factors, which may also have exaggerated the impact. The UK economy is weighed down by recession fears, high inflation and the cost of living crisis. The Bank of England has raised interest rates nine times since December 2021 to try to bring down inflation, which remains close to a 41-year high. EUR/USD EUR/USD lost traction and fell towards 1.0550 early Tuesday after climbing above 1.0700 on Monday. It's hard to stop the driving force of the pair's recent actions as the market recovers with the US dollar strengthening again. Nevertheless, technical forecasts point to a bearish slope after the sharp decline seen during the European session. Euro still awaits German CPI data release, which may help EUR/USD move towards 1.06. Source: investing.com Read next: New Record For Electric Car Manufacturer - Tesla Deliveries Increased By 40% Year-On-Year| FXMAG.COM AUD/USD The Australian pair fell from above 0.68 to 0.6695 Weaker than expected official Chinese PMI data released over the weekend may have contributed to the decline. The Australian remains supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates later this year as part of its ongoing effort to bring down inflation. Markets are currently divided on whether the RBA will deliver another rate hike in February. Australia's trade balance remains at a record high and the AUD/USD exchange rate weakens due to interest rate differentials, and the domestic economy continues to benefit from this. Source: investing.com Source: dailyfx.com, investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

USD strength weighed on much of the commodities complex yesterday, while milder weather continues to put pressure on natural gas prices Energy - milder weather continues to weigh on gas Energy markets came under significant pressure yesterday, along with the rest of the commodities complex. A stronger USD weighed heavily on markets, while milder weather across much of the Northern Hemisphere has put further downward pressure on prices. ICE Brent fell by more than 4.4% yesterday - its largest daily decline since September. The weakness in the market comes despite the China reopening story, which should be constructive for the demand outlook in the medium to longer term. Although admittedly, rising Chinese covid infections could weigh on demand in the immediate term.   There were also reports that the Chinese government issued 18.99mt of refined product export quotas in the first tranche for 2023, up 46% from the same period last year. This should also be seen as a constructive factor for crude demand in the near term as it should support Chinese refinery runs, particularly at a time when there are concerns over Chinese domestic demand in the immediate term due to rising covid infections. Preliminary OPEC production numbers are starting to come through and a Bloomberg survey estimates that the group’s output in December averaged 29.14MMbbls/d, up 150Mbbls/d MoM. The increase was largely driven by a recovery in output from Nigeria, where production increased by 150Mbbls/d to 1.35MMbbls/d. There were marginal changes amongst other OPEC members. Milder weather across large parts of Europe continues to weigh on natural gas prices. TTF fell by more than 6% yesterday, leaving it to trade just above EUR72/MWh. Milder weather has meant that storage is not drawing as quickly as initially expected. In fact, in recent days we have seen European gas storage increasing. At the moment storage is a little under 84% full compared to a 5-year average of almost 70% for this time of year. The milder weather has eased concerns and it is looking as though the region will make it through this heating season in a comfortable manner.  Concerns also appear to be easing for next winter with the entire TTF forward curve trading below EUR90/MWh. However, there are still clear risks for the market as we move through the year and prices will need to remain elevated in order to ensure the market remains in balance. Metals- Gold climbs to six-month high Gold rose to its highest level in six months as Treasury yields declined. Speculation of the Federal Reserve softening its hawkish stance has supported the non-yielding asset. Any hints from the Fed of an easing in its aggressive hiking cycle should provide further support to prices. Copper prices came under some pressure yesterday following the release of weak manufacturing data from China. Surging Covid-19 cases in China are hurting consumption in the country with fabricators cutting runs or bringing forward Lunar New Year breaks because of sick workers and lower winter demand, according to the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). Operating rates at 21 major copper-rod producers fell to about 60% of capacity last week, the lowest since June, SMM said. For aluminium, the latest data from SMM showed inventories of aluminium ingots increasing for a third consecutive week, totalling 561kt as of 3 January, up 68kt from last Thursday. The data showed inventory accumulation across all eight major markets due to increased arrivals and muted demand during the New Year holiday. Meanwhile, the latest reports suggesting that some Chinese downstream factories have already been closed ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays are raising concerns about more inventory build-up over the coming weeks. Agriculture – Indian sugar output rises The latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) shows that 2022/23 Indian sugar production rose 3.7% YoY to 12.1mt through until 31st December, compared to 11.64mt during the same period last year. The group said that by the end of December, 509 mills were crushing cane, compared to 500 mills at the same time last year. Read this article on THINK TagsUSD strength Sugar OPEC Natural gas Gold China Covid Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through 104.50 during the New York session on Tuesday as projected before facing resistance. The index has slipped sharply towards the 103.50-60 area as the European sessions opened on Wednesday. The drop could be still considered as a pullback before the bulls are back in control pushing the price towards 105.50 and 107.00 respectively. The US dollar index might have terminated its larger-degree corrective drop at 103.05 as seen on the 4H chart presented here. It further managed to carve a higher low around 103.12 last week before producing a rally of over 120 points. Ideally, the bulls would keep control and push the instrument through 107.00 at least, provided that 103.05 holds well. The short-term wave structure could be described as follows. The first leg higher was completed at 104.50 on Tuesday as the second wave retraces back to the 103.50-60 zone. If the above structure holds well, prices would stay above 103.05 and continue pushing higher as the third wave unfolds. Only a break below 103.00 would nullify the above bullish structure. Trading idea: Potential bullish move against 102.00 Good luck!       Relevance up to 09:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307296

The start of the year 2023 marked a new paradox for gold. It grew against the background of the strengthening U.S. dollar at the auction on January 3 and continued to rally when the USD retreated. Investors' interest in the precious metal seems so great that they stopped paying attention to the dynamics of the USD index. However, based on a couple of days, it is too early to draw conclusions because XAUUSD now has another ally—the U.S. Treasury bonds. Economic outlook Expectations of a recession in the United States and China's difficult exit from the zero-COVID policy increase the demand for safe-haven assets. Debt yields are falling as prices rise. Real rates are also falling with anchored inflation expectations, reducing the cost of holding gold in an ETF and helping it continue its rally towards at least $1,900 an ounce. Dynamics of gold and U.S. bond yields The combination of geopolitical risks remaining high, fears of an approaching global recession and a slowdown in the rate of monetary restriction by the Fed is creating a tailwind for gold. The armed conflict in Ukraine is unlikely to end in the next 6–12 months, the global economy is less firmly on its feet than in 2022, and central banks are well aware that raising rates as aggressively as last year means exacerbating the recession. The Fed's monetary policy blocked gold's oxygen in 2022 If the Fed's monetary policy blocked gold's oxygen in 2022, it could push it to new heights in 2023. Compare that to +425 bps to the Fed Funds rate last year and the expected +75–100 bps this year. In addition, the markets continue to expect a "dovish" reversal when borrowing costs start to decline after numerous acts of raising them. Let's not discount the potential increase in investment demand for a physical asset. The outflow of capital from ETFs has good opportunities to reverse. The increase in stocks of specialized exchange-traded funds is a "bullish" factor for XAUUSD. So is rising demand for the precious metal from central banks. In the third quarter, they increased their purchases to a record 400 tons, and they do not seem to be going to stop. Thus, fans of gold are full of optimism. However, there are risks that things will not go according to their plan. If the U.S. labor market remains strong and inflation suddenly picks up after several months of slowdown, the dollar will rise from the ashes, damaging the precious metal's reputation. In this respect, the December employment and consumer price data releases are a test for XAUUSD. They may trigger a short-term pullback, although the upward trend is likely to remain in place. Technically, long positions formed on the rebound from the fair value of $1,795 per ounce are now paying off. At the same time, the inability of gold to overcome the $1,856 and $1,875 pivot points or its return below the support at $1,850 are the signs of "bulls' weakness and the reason for partial profit taking or reversal.     Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-09 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/331439

Technical outlook: The US dollar index is forming a potential low around the 103.50-60 zone after reversing from 104.50 early this week. The index is seen to be trading close to 104.00 at this point in writing as the bulls are looking poised to come back in control. Prices are expected to rally towards 105.50 and to 107.00 in the near term. The 103.00-05 handle should remain intact for the bullish outlook to hold. The US dollar index seems to have terminated its larger-degree corrective drop, which began from the 114.70 highs earlier to 103.05 recently. Furthermore, a higher high has also been carved around 103.12 last week of December 2022. A high probability remains for a continued rally from here towards 107.00 and up to the 110.00-50 zone at the most. The US dollar index has further unfolded its lower-degree upswing between 103.12 and 104.50 respectively. The drop to 103.50-60 thereafter is seen as a retracement/pullback, which looks complete. If the above structure holds well, the next move should be higher towards 105.50 and 107.00 in the near term. We will review the trend around 107.00 and decide on the next move. Trading idea: Potential rally towards 107.00 against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307427

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 102.30 intraday lows on Monday before finding some bids coming. The index is seen to be trading close to 102.80 at this point in writing and is expected to continue higher as the bulls prepare to come back in control. Prices have hit a major Fibonacci target at 102.30 as seen on the 4H chart here. The price is looking higher from here. The US dollar index seems to have completed its drop from 114.70, hitting the Fibonacci 1.618 target at the 102.20-30 zone. The bulls can be expected to come back strong from current levels and continue higher in the next several weeks. Immediate price resistance is seen through 105.35 and a push-through will confirm that bulls are back in control. The US dollar index is also producing a reasonable bullish divergence on the 4H chart as seen here. This could be a potential sign of a trend reversal, which could produce a meaningful rally towards at least 109.00. Aggressive traders might want to hold long positions from current levels, targeting 105.35 in the next few trading sessions. Trading idea: Potential bullish move against 102.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/307921

FX markets continue to trade with cautious optimism on the view that a US slowdown can rein in a hawkish Fed and that a reset in China policy will (eventually) see resurgent consumer demand and perhaps even improved foreign relations. That looks like a good story for the commodity and EMFX complex. Look out for comments from Fed Chair Powell today and the NFIB The market is growing increasingly confident that the Fed will end its tightening cycle this quarter USD: Powell pushback? Risk assets have started the year on a strong footing, with a good performance from both equity and debt markets. Emerging markets are back in fashion after a tough couple of years, where the building view that the Fed can soften its pressure on the monetary brakes plus China re-opening can see quite a strong recovery in emerging market currencies against the dollar. We note with interest a piece in the Financial Times today speculating on China's approach to stimulating domestic demand and also seeking to improve foreign relations. China's softening of a ban on coal imports from China and yesterday's news of a 20% increase in crude oil import quotas are consistent with the article. This comes at a time when the market is growing increasingly confident that the Fed will end its tightening cycle this quarter and embark on an easing cycle in the third quarter. Today will see two inputs into that Fed story in the form of i) comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell around 15CET today and ii) the NFIB small business sentiment survey. Powell is speaking at a Riksbank conference on central bank independence, making it unclear whether he will today push back against the recent softening in US financial conditions. Certainly, the market does not buy into the Fed's narrative of the funds rate being taken to 5.00% and being kept there for a long time. Markets seem to price a 50bp easing cycle in 2H23. Regarding the NFIB survey, the market will be interested in whether it sinks any further and supports the recessionary readings provided by last Friday's ISM services release. Assuming that neither Powell's comments nor the NFIB breaks the building narrative of a more relaxed Fed (and Thursday's US CPI will also be key for this story), we would expect momentum to remain against the dollar and continue to favour activity/commodity currencies. Speculation will also be building that the Bank of Japan might have a further Japanese government bond (JGB) yield target adjustment in store after the Tokyo ex-food CPI hit 4% year-on-year – a level last seen in 1981. The Bank of Japan meets next week. DXY looks biased towards the 102.00 as investors put money to work on non-USD assets. Chris Turner EUR: So far, so good EUR/USD managed to nudge up to a new high yesterday without the support of much new news. It seems that asset managers are starting the year by placing money overseas, where dollar sales for emerging market currencies seem to lift EUR/USD as well. That said, European equities continue to outperform at the start of the year and eurozone data also continues to surprise on the upside.  For the time being, we would prefer to back further EUR/USD strength – should today's US event risks allow. This could see EUR/USD pressing last May's high at 1.0785. This week there is an outside risk of 1.0950 should Thursday's US December CPI show another soft reading. Before we dust off the call to 1.15, we should note that a re-opened China will compete for global LNG supplies. This means that the issue of high natural gas prices could well come back and bite the eurozone and the euro later in the year. Chris Turner GBP: Better risk environment provides some insulation Sterling has been performing slightly better, helped no doubt by the constructive risk environment at the start of 2023. The UK has quite a large country weight in global equity and debt benchmarks, meaning that flows into these products can provide some support. Sterling barely budged yesterday on comments from Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill that there were early signs that the UK labour market was softening. Again, market pricing of a further 100bp BoE hike to the 4.50% area this summer looks resolute. 0.8770-0.8870 may well contain EUR/GBP for the rest of this week, though GBP/USD could have some more upside should US data allow. Chris Turner CEE: Romania closes the hiking cycle in the region Today's calendar in the region offers National Bank of Romania (NBR) policy meeting. Although it seemed likely that we would not see another rate hike after the last meeting, the November inflation number has convinced us that one more hike is more than likely. That is why we expect the last 25bp rate hike today to 7.00%. However, our chief economist in Bucharest, Valentin Tataru, gives a 30% chance that rates will remain unchanged today. A rate hike is unlikely to impress anyone, and we will look for clues as to how the NBR views the liquidity situation in the market. From a rate perspective, we think this meeting should be the last live one, which will close the CEE region's hiking cycle, given that we do not expect rate hikes anywhere else.  The Romanian leu, like the entire CEE region, has benefited from favourable global conditions in recent weeks and, with the exception of the last few days of last year, has remained below NBR intervention levels. Although Romania is the least energy-dependent country in the region, the positive impact of the drop in gas prices and the more favourable EUR/USD level has not avoided the Romanian market. These conditions are expected to persist in the coming weeks. Although the carry level is among the lower ones within the region, it is at least stable. Moreover, the central bank maintains strong market confidence not to allow a depreciation above intervention levels. Thus, in our view, any EUR/RON upward moves may be tempting for RON buyers. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK TagsNational Bank of Romania FX Daily Federal Reserve Dollar  

Good news is that Asian stocks entered bull market. Bad news is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell could hammer the post-NFP stock rally in US stocks. Sentiment is mixed and investors are tense before Powell’s speech, and Thursday’s US inflation data. S&P500 The S&P500 was unable to extend gains above the 3900, rapidly started erasing early-session gains and ended the session 0.08% lower. Nasdaq also gave back early-session gains, though closed the session 0.60% higher. US makret US equity futures are in the negative this morning, as the King of market disappointment, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will be speaking at an event in Stockholm today, and he will probably not pop the champagne just because the wages grew less than expected last month, especially when you think that the US economy added a near record 4.5 million jobs last year, and that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. Forex In the FX, the US dollar index remains under a decent selling pressure, as a result of the dovish Fed expectations since last Friday’s US jobs data. The EURUSD advanced to 1.0760 yesterday, Cable flirted with 1.22 this morning, and gold consolidates gains. Energy market In energy, crude oil remains under pressure despite the Chinese reopening talk, and the falling Russian supply. We see that the European sanctions weigh on Russian oil supply, as the 4-week average shipments decline despite a small gain posted last week. That means that the lower Russian supply will be another supportive factor of oil prices. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 Asian stocks enter null market 1:25 Powell could shoot Fed doves down 5:18 Another big S&P500 is possible 7:11 US dollar under pressure 8:32 Russian crude shipments on falling trend 9:32 Copper futures rally, but risks prevail Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #Powell #speech #Fed #expectations #USD #EUR #GBP #XAU #earnings #season #Lululemon #banks #MSCI #AsiaPacific #bull #market #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Technical outlook: The US dollar index slipped through the 102.63 lows during the Asian session on Friday, testing the previous swing low at 102.57. The fact that the bulls are still holding the above price support is indicative of a potential sharp bullish reversal from here in the near term. The index is seen to be trading close to 102.80 at this point in writing as the bulls remain poised for a comeback. The US dollar index might have terminated its larger-degree drop, which started from 114.70 in September 2022. Prices carved a low around 102.55, close to the projected Fibonacci 1.618 extension at 102.30 as seen on the 4H chart presented here. If the above structure holds true, we can expect a sharp rally at least towards 110.00 in the next few trading sessions. The US dollar index is facing immediate resistance at 105.35, while support comes in just around the 102.00-30 zone. The fact that RSI is also showing bullish divergence on several timeframes (not shown today) also builds a strong case of a potential bullish turn from current levels. Only a significant and consistent break below 102.30 will nullify the bullish scenario. Read next: The EUR/USD Pair Maintains A Steady Upward Trend, The Aussie Pair Keeps Close To 0.69| FXMAG.COM Trading idea: Potential rally against 101.50 Good luck! Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308320

Today, January 12, Thursday, the US dollar dropped significantly once more. Let me remind you that last Friday, reports on the unemployment rate, the labor market, and business activity were released in the United States for the first time in 2023. 223 thousand people were employed, the unemployment rate declined to 3.5%, and the ISM index unexpectedly went below the 50.0 level. Generally speaking, the only ISM index that is detrimental to the dollar is the one for the services sector. The remaining news is all favorable in my opinion, but the demand for the US dollar is still down significantly. The demand for the dollar was steady at the start of this week, but today data on inflation in the United States was released, which did not appear to startle the market but sparked a strong reaction. The market anticipated a decrease in the consumer price index of 6.5% y/y, which exactly happened. The market also anticipated a 5.7% y/y decline in the base index. There were no additional significant occurrences today. The demand for US dollars nonetheless decreased It turns out that although both results from the same report were almost exactly in line with predictions, the demand for US dollars nonetheless decreased, preventing both instruments from starting (or continuing) to build the correction portion of the trend. It is vital to note that the subsequent activities of central banks, in this case, the Fed, are more significant than inflation itself. Michelle Bowman, one of the FOMC's voting members, recently predicted that the rate will increase because inflation is still too high. At a Florida event, Bowman stated, "I believe we can cut inflation without a big economic slump as the jobless rate continues at its historic lows. Other FOMC members had previously argued for the continuation of monetary policy tightening. However, the market appears to be responding that all interest rate increases have already been fully absorbed by the US dollar's constantly declining demand. The rate is anticipated to climb to a maximum of 5.5% by the market, though it may be lower following today's inflation report The recession in the UK has reportedly already started It is important to keep in mind that the demand for the currency is supported by a tighter monetary policy. Therefore, as expectations for the rate decline, so does the demand for the currency. Therefore, from a wave perspective, I continue to anticipate the development of downward trend sections. Despite their significant length and complexity, the market indicates that it is willing to build upward segments. Only figures on British GDP, European and British industrial production, and the American University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index are available this week. The recession in the UK has reportedly already started, thus the most significant GDP data is likely to show a decrease. If this is the case, it would be difficult to predict that the GDP will increase over a single month. The MACD is indicating a "down" trend I conclude that the upward trend section's building is about finished based on the analysis. As a result, given that the MACD is indicating a "down" trend, it is now viable to contemplate sales with targets close to the predicted 0.9994 level, or 323.6% per Fibonacci. The potential for complicating and extending the upward portion of the trend remains quite strong, as does the likelihood of this happening. The building of a downward trend section is still assumed by the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. According to the "down" reversals of the MACD indicator, it is possible to take into account sales with objectives around the level of 1.1508, which corresponds to 50.0% by Fibonacci. The upward portion of the trend is probably over, however, it might yet take a lengthier shape than it does right now. Relevance up to 16:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332164

2023 Supply forecasts Corporate supply is forecast at no more than US$600bn in 2023 • Corporate supply was just US$6bn in December pushing the full year supply up to US$555bn, in line with our forecast. This is much lower than previous years, normally averaging closer to US$700bn. TMT saw the largest supply last year with US$137bn, followed by US$99bn from Utilities and US$86bn in Industrials. Looking at the beginning of this year thus far, primary markets have been rather active with US$27bn issued.  • USD supply will be manageable in 2023 as we expect another year of very low net supply. We forecast USD corporate supply to be no more than US$600bn in 2023, up compared to the US$555bn last year. This is still below the average US$700bn seen in the past number of years. Furthermore, redemptions are up in 2023, to US$334bn, and net supply is expected to be rather low at just US$276bn, lower than the average US$400bn.  • Financial supply totalled US$533bn in 2022, very much in line with previous years. Bank senior supply amounted to US$343bn, while Bank capital was US$53bn. A decent amount of financial supply has also been issued in the past week and a half, sitting at US$27bn thus far.    Corporate Reverse Yankee supply expected to remain slow at €40bn in 2023 • Historically, Reverse Yankee supply generally accounts for 10% of US corporate supply, which should amount to US$55bn (€55bn). Furthermore, Reverse Yankee supply is on average 19% of Euro corporate supply which we have forecast at €275bn. This also suggests €55bn for Reverse Yankee supply in 2023.  • However, much like what has been seen in 2022, we expect somewhat lower Reverse Yankee supply in 2023 relative to what is mathematically indicated above, due to:  1. Instability in markets often leads to safe-haven issuance. Many US corporates will be tempted to issue domestically in USD due to the headwinds facing the market this year.  2. The unattractive cross currency basis swap, and our expectation it will remain so.  3. Initial, expected USD outperformance in 1H23, creating less attraction early in 2023. • Therefore, we forecast Reverse Yankee supply to be 38% (€15bn) lower than the normal % of US corporate and EUR corporate supply and hit €40bn in 2023. This will still be up on last year’s c.€30bn.    Read the article on ING Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

With the appreance of Bearish 123 pattern followed by the breakout below Hook (RH) as well as price movement from USDX on its daily chart, it is confirmed that Seller still dominates the price movement from US Dollar Currency Index where in the near future USDX seems to be trying to test the 101.27 level as its first target and the 97.66 level will be the second target if momentum and volatility are supportive and if there is no upward correction movement that exceeds the 103.90 level, if this level is successfully penetrated upwards then there is a high probability that a price decline scenario from USDX will potentially become invalid and cancel by itself. Read next: The UK Economy Expects A Slightly Fall In Inflation, Expected To Fall By 0.1%| FXMAG.COM Relevance up to 06:00 2023-01-21 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/117627

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through fresh lows at 101.36 in the early hours of trade on Monday. The index is seen to be trading close to 101.55 at this point of writing as the bulls prepare to come back in control soon. A break above the 102.25 short-term resistance will be the first sign of the bulls coming back in control and that a bottom is in place at 101.36. The US dollar index seems to have now completed its larger-degree drop, which had begun from the 114.70 high. If the above structure holds well, prices would push higher producing a bullish reversal signal. A potential Engulfing Bullish candlestick pattern is unfolding on the 4H chart presented here. Further, RSI is also producing bullish divergences on several timeframes (not shown here). The US dollar index is now facing strong resistance at 105.35 as marked on the 4H chart here. A push higher will further add confidence to the bullish outlook and that a bottom is in place at 101.36. Potential remains for a push towards 106.40 and 109.50 levels in the next several trading sessions. Trading idea: Potential rally against 100.50. Good luck! Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/308685

The index extends the range bound theme around 102.30. US markets return to normal activity following Monday’s holiday. NY Empire State index, short-term auctions, Fedspeak next on tap. The greenback, in terms of the USD Index (DXY), navigates under some downside pressure in the 102.30 region on turnaround Tuesday. USD Index looks to data, Fedspeak The index surrenders part of the auspicious start of the new trading week and returns to the 102.30 area on Tuesday, as US markets also return to their usual activity following Monday’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. The renewed softer stance in the dollar comes on the back of the pick-up in the sentiment surrounding the risk complex, in particular following better-than-expected results from the Chinese fundamentals published earlier in the Asian trading hours. In the US data space, the manufacturing gauge measured by the NY Empire State Index will be the sole data release and will be accompanied by short-term auctions and the speech by NY Fed J.Williams. What to look for around USD The dollar keeps navigating levels last seen in June 2022 around 103.30 pari passu with the resumption of the buying interest in the risk complex. The idea of a probable pivot in the Fed’s policy in the next months continues to weigh on the greenback and keeps the price action around the DXY depressed. This view, however, also comes in contrast to the hawkish message from the latest FOMC Minutes and recent comments from fed’s rate-setters, all pointing to the need to advance to a more restrictive stance and stay there for longer, at the time when rates are seen climbing above the 5.0% mark. On the latter, the tight labour market and the resilience of the economy are also seen supportive of the firm message from the Federal Reserve and the continuation of its hiking cycle. Key events in the US this week: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Tuesday) – MBA Mortgage Applications, Producer Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NAHB Index, Business Inventories, Fed’s Beige Book, Net Long-term TIC Flows (Wednesday) – Building Permits, Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday) – Existing Home Sales (Friday). Eminent issues on the back boiler: Rising conviction of a soft landing of the US economy. Prospects for extra rate hikes by the Federal Reserve vs. speculation of a recession in the next months. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict. USD Index relevant levels Now, the index is losing 0.23% at 102.31 and the breach of 101.77 (monthly low January 16) would open the door to 101.29 (monthly low May 30) and finally 100.00 (psychological level). On the other hand, the next hurdle emerges at 105.63 (monthly high January 6) followed by 106.41 (200-day SMA) and then 107.19 (weekly high November 30).

Technical outlook: The US dollar index climbed through the 102.45 intraday high during the Asian session on Wednesday. The index is seen to be trading close to 102.35 at this point in writing after having carved a higher low in the 101.60-65 zone earlier. It looks like the bears have bottomed out at 101.36 over the last week as prices resume carving higher lows and higher highs. The US dollar index is plotting a potential Morning Star candlestick pattern on the daily chart (not presented here), which could revive a rally towards 106.50 and 109.50 levels going forward. Also, note that immediate price resistance is seen through 105.35 and a break there will accelerate further towards the initial projected target. The US dollar index is expected to be well supported around the 101.90-102.00 zone intraday. Any pullbacks towards the above range would be well supported as the bulls are regaining control. Only a consistent break below 101.30 will negate the above bullish scenario. Traders might be preparing to buy on drops towards 102.00 again, with risk towards 101.36. Trading idea: Potential rally against 100.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309047

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its below-zero interest rate and its faltering yield curve control policy unchanged. No-action sent the Japanese 10-year yield tumbling by up to 14 bp – that’s almost a 30% plunge. The dollar-yen spiked above the 131.50 level, losing more than 2.50% against the greenback. Equities In equities, confusion and lack of direction best described yesterday’s sentiment in the US. US futures US futures were pointing at a negative start, then turned higher in early trading as we heard a lot of talk about "green shoots" and "bright spots" in the economy when Chinese Vice Premier talked in Davos yesterday saying that he expects China's economy to return to normal this year. S&P 500  The S&P 500 shortly traded above the 4000 level, but reality soon hit the fan with mixed earnings from Goldman and Morgan Stanley, and brought the top sellers in. earnings And the top sellers kept selling into the 4000 level to the end of the session. Finally, the index closed the session 0.20% lower, spot on the 2022’s down-trending channel top and above the critical 200-DMA. The first set of earnings doesn’t support a sustainable move above that 200-DMA level. Read next: Alibaba And Its Share Buyback Program Which Is Supported By Ryan Cohen, Microsoft Corp. Plans To Incorporate AI Tools| FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:45 BoJ fights the hawks 3:00 FX update 5:29 S&P500 offered at 4000… 6:59 …as mixed earnings hammer optimism 7:59 Tesla better bid despite Jefferies PT cut 8:36 Meme traders refuse to buy Alibaba Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #BoJ #YCC #JPY #JGB #USD #EUR #GBP #inflation #bank #earnings #Alibaba #Tesla #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      

The latest PPI data showed that the producer price inflation in the US fell way faster than expected, while retail sales fell 1.1% in December – marking the biggest monthly drop of last year. S&P500 The S&P500 didn’t like the mix of slowing economic data, and hawkish comments from Fed officials, and dived more than 1.50% yesterday. But the dovish expectations – despite the hawkish comments from the Fed, feed well into the bond markets: the US 2-year yield is diving toward the 4% mark, while the 10-year yield hit 3.30%, the lowest level since September. This means that the positive divergence in the sovereign space, compared with the stocks, is happening. Netflix and P&G And the divergence could be even more visible if the stocks fall further on soft earnings. Netflix and P&G will announce their Q4 results today. Read next: Un Secretary General Antonio Guterres Encouraged The Transition To Green Energy At The World Economic Forum In Davos, The Chinese Economy May Surprise You Positively| FXMAG.COM Energy In energy, US crude advanced past the $82 mark on Chinese reopening optimism and IEA predicting that the oil demand will hit a record in 2023, before falling back below the $80 on recession pessimism. Precious metals In precious metals, gold is bid above the $1900 level, supported by lower US yields and the softer US dollar. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:42 Soft economic data from the US revives the Fed doves 2:09 But the Fed doves aren’t enough for cheering up the stock bulls 3:36 Netflix & P&G to reveal Q4 earnings today 6:00 USD is unloved 8:20 Crude oil swings up and down 9:05 Gold looks appetizing on softer yields & weaker dollar Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #US #PPI #retailsales #data #Netflix #P&G #earnings #USD #EUR #GBP #JPY #crude #oil #gold #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 101.65 low before finding support again as the bulls prepare to come back in control. The index is seen to be trading close to 101.80 at this point in writing and is expected to push through the 102.40 initial resistance in the near term. Ideally, prices should stay above the 101.00 interim low carved early this week. The US dollar index might have completed its larger-degree decline between 114.70 and 101.00. Prices have met the Fibonacci 1.618 extension around 102.22 and climbed by almost 100 points. If the above structure holds well, the bulls are expected to come back strong from here and push prices through 105.35 to confirm a potential trend reversal. The US dollar index is preparing to rally against the 101.65 low according to the lower-degree wave structure. Prices are either preparing to rally through 106.50 and up to 109.50 or to push towards a new high above 114.70. Either way, the instrument is looking higher from here as long as the 101.00 support remains intact. Trading idea: Potential rally against 101.00 Good luck!     Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309397

Growing uncertainty has caused US equities to fall, with all three major indices down a full percentage point. Meanwhile, gold rose strongly and almost gained as much as 1.5%. The move came after reports emerged that the US already reached the debt ceiling set by the Congress. According to the data, it now exceeds $ 31 trillion, which is likely to force Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to take "extraordinary measures", such as not paying all of the country's bills. It will also prompt Yellen to send a letter to the Congressional leadership, following the one she already sent last January 13, when she urged the Congress to act immediately in order to protect the full faith and credit of the United States. Despite this, Fed officials continue to highlight the need for further rate hikes as it is a key tool to address and lower the current rate of inflation. The bank has announced its plan to raise the benchmark rate above 5% even though recent data indicates that inflationary pressures may have peaked. Markets are becoming increasingly concerned because previously, the political administration has been slow to act, either postponing a solution or only proposing to raise the debt ceiling. Persistently high inflation can only make the problem worse Relevance up to 10:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/332875

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 101.20 lows during the early Asian session on Monday. The index has found some support thereafter and is seen to be trading close to 101.40 at this point in writing. A push above 102.10-20 will confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place and the bulls are back in control. The downside remains limited from here. The US dollar index has further terminated its larger-degree drop, which started from 114.70, in September 2022. The Fibonacci 1.618 extension has been met at 102.20 as seen on the 4H chart here. A high probability remains for a bullish reversal from the current levels towards 106.50 and 109.50 respectively. The US dollar index is facing strong resistance at 105.35. A push higher will confirm a further upside and that the bulls are here to remain in control. Near-term resistance is seen around 102.50 and it would be encouraging to see prices break higher. Only a consistent break below 101.00 will void the above-presented bullish scenario. Trading idea: Potential trend reversal higher against 100.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309569

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rose through the 101.85 high during the New York session on Monday before finding some resistance. The index has pulled back a bit and is seen to be trading close to 101.60 at this point in writing. A break above 102.20 and subsequently 102.40-50 will confirm that the bulls are back in control with a meaningful bottom in place at 101.00-20. The US dollar index might have completed its larger-degree corrective decline, which had begun from the 114.70 high in September 2022. Both the Fibonacci extensions have been met as seen on the 4H chart here. Furthermore, the index has not printed another low below its January 18 low at 101.11; while its counterpart EURUSD printed a shallow high. The above phenomenon can be considered a bullish divergence for the US dollar index. The bulls will remain poised to come back in control as long as prices stay above 101.11. Immediate price resistance is seen at 105.35 on the 4H chart and a break higher will confirm a meaningful bottom in place and that the bulls are back in control. Trading idea: Potential bullish turn against 101.00. Good luck! Relevance up to 05:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309719

On the 4-hour chart the US Dollar Index appears to be moving in a bearish channel and is below the Moving Average so that in the near future #USDX has the potential to continue its decline below the 101.50 level as the main target and 101.27 as the second target, but if before succeeding to the target levels mentioned earlier, suddenly #USDX reverses upwards and breaks above the 102.87 level, the downside scenario described earlier will cancel itself.   Relevance up to 06:00 2023-01-25 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/118063

The market is focused on the US growth story and the dollar is more and more influenced by data prints. Today's PMI numbers should help limit downside exposure for the dollar. The euro remains supported by ECB officials fighting speculation of a 25bp hike. Hungary's central bank tests market sensitivity on an upcoming rate cut Some improvement in the market's sentiment around the health of the service sector in the US should help limit downside exposure for the dollar USD: Data-related risks are back Risk assets have started the week on the front foot, with equities rising yesterday in Europe and the US while Chinese markets are closed for the whole week. The dollar remained moderately offered. It’s become increasingly clear that larger swings in the dollar are now driven by data releases given the market's heightened sensitivity to the US growth story ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Preliminary PMIs will be released across developed markets today, and despite the surveys not being as highly regarded as the ISM in the US, that elevated sensitivity to data likely makes today’s releases a risk event for the dollar. Consensus expectations are centred around a modest recovery in the service index and in the composite survey. Some improvement in the market’s sentiment around the health of the service sector in the US should help limit downside exposure for the dollar. In that case, DXY may hold around 102.00 today unless PMIs in Europe surprise to the upside. Richmond Fed manufacturing data is the other release in the US calendar today. In the rest of G10, AUD has cemented its position as the most popular long trade in 2023, breaking decisively above 0.7000 yesterday. Tonight’s fourth-quarter CPI data in Australia will be key, as evidence of sticky inflation may force a hawkish repricing across the AUD curve (which currently embeds 40bp of extra Reserve Bank of Australia tightening) and add steam to the AUD/USD rally. CPI figures are released also in New Zealand tonight, and we see a larger risk they could show a deceleration in price pressures compared to Australia. AUD/NZD may retest the recent 1.0950 highs soon as the NZD curve has more room for a dovish repricing. Francesco Pesole EUR: Reality check Given that part of the recent EUR strength has relied on a re-rating of growth expectations in the eurozone thanks to lower energy prices, today’s PMIs will likely be a reality check on the sustainability of this driver for the common currency. Consensus expectations are moderately upbeat and signal that the PMI services index could return above 50.00 for the first time since July. Still, it will now take quite a good deal of positive news to push another big idiosyncratic euro rally. It seems more likely that EUR/USD could test 1.1000 on the back of rising market risk appetite weighing on the safe-haven dollar, if anything. At the same time, the effective pushback by ECB officials against speculation around 25bp hikes is likely limiting downside risks for the pair. President Christine Lagarde has one last chance to deliver any remark today before the quiet period kicks in ahead of next week’s meeting. A mere reiteration of her recent rhetoric, however, seems highly likely at this stage. Francesco Pesole GBP: Limited upside room against the euro PMIs may look a bit grimmer in the UK compared to the eurozone today, which could hinder the modest rebound in EUR/GBP seen over the past two trading sessions. The pair may struggle to climb above 0.8830-0.8850 for now. Still, the pound should be able to count on a generalised alignment in market expectations around a 50bp hike by the Bank of England next week (45bp priced in at the moment), which suggests a smaller scope for a correction.  Francesco Pesole HUF: Central bank assesses progress at home and abroad This week's highlight in the region is the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) meeting today. The central bank has made it clear that it wants to see a tangible and permanent improvement in risk sentiment. This means an improvement on the geopolitical side and on internal issues such as the Rule of Law, the current account deficit, and inflation. While we have seen some progress on all of these issues, in our view it is not enough for the central bank. However, after the progress in the EU story and lower-than-expected inflation, markets are already looking for indications of the NBH cutting rates, which are the highest in the CEE region. We expect the central bank to confirm its intention to keep interest rates high for longer today. However, we concede that the current situation could be tempting for the central bank to test the market by sending a dovish message. Increasingly, the market is seeing signs of speculation of a too-early interest rate cut. If the NBH resists the temptation and confirms the hawkish tone, we expect the current speculation to cool down and the forint could get back on track. In addition, yesterday's reaction to Fitch's downgrade of the rating outlook to negative could slightly clear long positioning and clear the way for further forint appreciation. In that case, we expect that the forint could test 390 EUR/HUF soon. Otherwise, the current positioning favours a rather asymmetric reaction negatively towards EUR/HUF 400. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK TagsHungary FX Daily Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through 104.40 during the early Asian session on Wednesday before finding support again. The index has been oscillating within a contracting triangle since January 18, after hitting the 101.11 low.This could be seen as the last leg potentially before a break higher towards 102.50 and further. The price is looking higher from here soon. The US dollar index is seen to be trading close to 101.50 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to come back in control. A push through 102.10-20 will enable DXY to break out of consolidation and open the door towards 102.50 and the 105.35 strong resistance. For the above bullish structure to hold, prices should stay above 101.10 going forward. The US dollar index seems to have terminated its larger-degree corrective wave, which had begun since the 114.70 high in September last year. If the above structure holds well, the bulls will be poised to push through 105.35 in the near future, followed by 106.50 and 109.50 in the coming weeks. A probability also remains to print a new high above 114.70. Trading idea: Potential bullish turn against 100.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/309919

The dollar gained on Wednesday during limited trading. Traders broadly expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next Wednesday, down from the 50 bp hike in December. Earlier, investors will look at the US economic growth data for the fourth quarter, which will be released on Thursday. Moreover, a drop in global energy prices and a resulting slowdown in inflation in advanced economies has spurred speculation the Fed and other central banks might soon stop raising interest rates. USD/JPY Spot prices struggle to capitalize on the move and held steady at 130.00 through the early European session. USD/JPY is trading below this level. EUR/USD The chances of a bigger interest rate hike by the ECB are growing rapidly. As reported by Bloomberg, ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus reiterated on Tuesday that the ECB should continue raising interest rates by 50 basis points in the face of mounting wage pressure. The euro gained thanks to optimism about the euro zone's economic prospects. As for the future of the euro, economists at CIBC Capital Markets said the improving macroeconomic situation and further policy tightening by the ECB herald the strength of the euro in 2023. During the Asian trading hours, the EUR/USD pair rose until it broke above the 1.0900 level. The momentum fails to sustain and the pair trades below that level at around 1.0870. Read next: The Department Of Justice's Lawsuit Against Google | FXMAG.COM AUD/USD The Aussie pair is gaining strong positive traction for the fourth day in a row and is recovering from 0.7100 for the first time since mid-August during the Asian session on Wednesday. The Australian dollar rose to a more than five-month high on Wednesday after higher-than-expected inflation data, bolstering the case for further interest rate hikes. Australian headline inflation (CPI) continues to pick up, as does the preferred trimmed CPI, on both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis. Australia is set to benefit from the Chinese reopening now that the Chinese government has stated that the nation has already reached a peak in infections and hospitalization rates. The reopening has resulted in increased purchases of Australia’s top export, iron ore, as prices have trended higher. The daily AUD/USD chart shows this pair in an uptrend. The pair managed to record gains over the course of three consecutive days. The AUD/USD pair performed well in the early stages of 2023, driven in large part by the continued downtrend of the dollar. Today, the pair gained above 0.7100, but failed to hold and is below this level again. GBP/USD Details of the UK Producer Price Index (PPI) for January may be of interest to GBP/USD investors ahead of Thursday's key US Q4 GDP and next week's Fed meeting. Sterling fell against the dollar and euro on Wednesday after data showed British manufacturers unexpectedly lowered prices in December, suggesting inflation could be easing ahead of next week's Bank of England policy meeting. The news that UK factories have lowered prices is likely to ease the burden on Bank of England policymakers who need to consider how far to raise interest rates in the fight to bring down inflation. The market expects the BoE to raise interest rates for the tenth time since late 2021 as it fights inflation. Markets are currently evaluating a 75% chance of a 50 point rate hike. The cable pair is still trading below 1.2400, close to the 1.2300 level. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 101.11 lows on Thursday, re-testing its earlier swing low of January 18, 2023, before finding bids again. The index is seen to be trading close to 101.60 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to come back in control. A push above the 102.50 short-term resistance will add further confidence to the bullish setup. The US dollar index might have terminated its larger-degree drop just ahead of 101.00. The entire drop, which had begun from the 114.70 highs, should be retraced towards 106.50 up to 109.50 in the next several trading sessions. On the flip side, if the price consistently breaks below 101.00, it would continue further towards 100.00 and lower. The US dollar index is facing strong resistance at 105.35 as marked on the daily chart here. A push-through will confirm and add further confidence in the bullish setup. The price is expected to produce a bearish reaction if they reach 109.50 since it is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 101.11 respectively. Trading idea: Potential bullish rally against 100.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310301

Markets' concerns about the US growth picture seemed to have eased, paving the way for a modest recovery in the dollar. Next week could, however, see a larger upside USD correction as the FOMC appears to have more room to surprise on the hawkish side compared to the ECB. Elsewhere, SEK is benefitting from good eurozone data, but domestic figures have lagged A 50bp hike by the ECB next week looks like a done deal, and we expect President Christine Lagarde to maintain a hawkish tone USD: Gearing up for an upside correction? The year started quite poorly for the US growth story, but the past couple of weeks have – at least – not given reasons to be even more pessimistic. Yesterday, growth figures in the US were slightly above consensus, and durable goods orders came in strong. We recommend reading our US economist’s note on those releases though, as a deeper look tells a different story than what the headline figures suggest. The week ends with December data on personal income and spending, as well as the PCE deflator, which are all expected to have decelerated.  The dollar did find some support yesterday after markets read US data as encouraging, and should enter a week packed with less bearish momentum. There is probably more room for the FOMC to surprise on the hawkish side compared to the ECB next week, and we could see an upside correction in the dollar materialise. For today, we can expect some consolidation around 102.00 in DXY. Francesco Pesole EUR: Still counting on the 1.0850 floor We have highlighted over the past few days how levels around 1.0850 in EUR/USD seemed to have formed a buy-the-dip floor for the pair. Yesterday’s price action added evidence that this is indeed the case, and we may have to wait for some more sizeable downshifting in USD bearishness in the run-in or after the FOMC meeting next week to witness a decisive break to the downside in EUR/USD. There are no market-moving data releases in the eurozone today, and some focus may only be on Spanish growth numbers this morning. Our economics teams published the ECB preview yesterday. A 50bp hike next week looks like a done deal, and we expect President Christine Lagarde to maintain a hawkish tone and push back against rate cut speculation. The recent communication hiccups however suggest the impact on the euro may not be too pronounced. Francesco Pesole SEK: Dealing with softer domestic data Sweden’s jobs and retail sales were released this morning and came in on the weak side. Unemployment ticked higher to 7.5% and retail sales were down 8% year-on-year in January. Earlier this week, the Economic Tendency index had pointed to a deterioration in the growth picture at the start of the year (while surveys in the eurozone were quite upbeat), although consumer confidence rebounded. SEK has not experienced much weakness as the data flow seemed to deteriorate, even though markets are no longer fully pricing in a 50bp hike by the Riksbank at the 9 February meeting. The solid growth story in the eurozone is probably offsetting the repricing lower in rate expectations. We recently published a scenario analysis for EUR/SEK in 2023. Our core view is that a gradual descent towards 10.50 will materialise by the third quarter. Francesco Pesole HUF: Rating decision will determine the future path of the forint The calendar in the CEE region is empty for Friday and it will be more interesting after the end of trading today. In Hungary, S&P will publish a rating review that will have the market's attention more than usual. A week ago, Fitch – surprisingly for us – downgraded the rating outlook from stable to negative, which highlights the question of whether Hungary has made sufficient progress in negotiations with the European Union for rating agencies. It is the slower absorption of EU funds that seems to have been the main reason for Fitch's decision. S&P has already held a negative outlook since last August and it was the inflow of EU funds that was the main risk of the latest review. Moreover, we expect S&P's new forecast to be revised to the downside in both GDP growth and the fiscal outlook. While we see downgrade risks high, our base case is for an unchanged rating today. With Fitch's recent decision, we think today's review will attract a lot of market attention and will be key for the future development of the forint. Given the heavy long positioning, we can expect an asymmetric reaction in the 385-395 EUR/HUF range. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK TagsSEK HUF FX Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The dollar strengthened on Friday, moving away from multi-month lows against the euro and sterling as investors began to focus on the many important central bank meetings next week. The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England are due to make interest rate decisions next week as they assess what policy adjustments may be needed to fight rampant inflation in a challenging global economic environment. In today's expected audience session, the core US PCE data for December will be released. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation and price pressures are expected to ease further. USD/JPY Annual inflation in Japan's largest city, Tokyo, continues to climb, with the base rate hitting 4.3% in January, the highest level in more than four decades. The USD/JPY pair in the European session is trading close to 130.00, at 129.96. Earlier, the couple managed to break the level of 130.00 but failed to maintain it. The couple is waiting for the publication of the US PCE report. EUR/USD The US dollar draws support from the mostly upbeat US macro data released on Thursday, which in turn is seen as a key factor putting some pressure on EUR/USD. Expectations for a more hawkish nature of the European Central Bank (ECB) should additionally contribute to limiting deeper losses. It is worth recalling that several ECB officials supported additional interest rate hikes in the coming months to fight stubbornly high inflation. Today European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is set to speach. The frequency of Lagarde's speeches in recent times has almost reduced her impact on the financial markets and the euro, which leads me to believe that today's forecasts may not have a significant impact. However, the market's attention will remain focused on key risks related to the central bank's events next week. The Fed will announce its policy decision at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. This will be followed by the ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday, which in turn will play a key role in determining the next stage of the EUR/USD directional move. The EUR/USD pair broke above 1.09 in the morning but fell again. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading in the range of 1.0875-1.0880. Read next: Ukraine Is Calling For More Sanctions Against Russia| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD Given the volatility of the market, the GBP/USD pair may witness a further sideways move ahead of the US PCE price index for December. British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt's willingness to accelerate growth is unimpressive to GBP/USD buyers as the Chancellor defends his position on a tax hike despite heavy criticism from other Conservatives. Alternatively, the growing calls for Brexit solutions, at least from Irish diplomats, appear to be helping the GBP/USD pair bearish. Investors expect the British economy's slowdown to end the Bank of England (BoE) tightening cycle soon. The Cable pair (GBP/USD) broke above 1.24 at the beginning of the day, but similarly to the EUR/USD pair, it failed to hold and fell. Currently, the GBP/USD pair is trading in the range of 1.2360-1.2370. AUD/USD The Australian dollar, tied to sentiment, rose cautiously on Thursday after US GDP data boosted Wall Street's risk appetite. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the US economy grew by 2.9% q/q. This is more than the consensus of 2.6%. The Australian dollar traded at around $0.71, hovering near its highest in almost eight months as rising inflation in the country fueled bets on further central bank policy tightening. Annual inflation in Australia rose 7.8% in December, the largest increase since 1990 and above market forecasts of 7.5%. The Aussie pair is holding above 0.7100 despite having dropped earlier. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com

Summary:  Further flattening or inversion is possible but with the recent downshift consensus with descending inflation numbers, it would be worth watching for trade setup by buying the spread - buy 2 year futures ZTH3 and sell 10 year futures ZNH3 - with reward risk that could favor a steepener instead. Chinese market returns after a long break but this week is huge with heaps of market events starting with FOMC rate decision followed by the earnings of three trillion market cap stocks – AMZN, GOOGL and AAPL - then of course non farm payroll (est 175k) and unemployment (est 3.6%) to wrap things up.S&P500 has already started the new year with YTD return +6% breaking above psychological level 4,000 where both 200DMA & downtrend (from all time high 4,818) coincided.  As a result of this laggy looking Santa rally, S&P500 PE is nearly 20 times compared to low 17 back in October last year and so far 143 companies reported with +0.9% sales and +2% earnings surprises. Last Friday two stocks stood out in relation to the inflation expectations.  AMEX 4Q results showed record quarterly card spending and indicated 2023 guidance for sales & earnings topping estimates.  Further more, similar to BHP that reached all time high $50 level recently, Caterpillar (CAT) has hit record high $266.04 heading into earnings tomorrow night and the focus is expected to be on the machinery producer’s demand forecast for this year.Another observation is on silver (XAGUSD) that has gained ~40% from last year’s support level $18 while testing big downtrend (from double top $30 that was formed during 2020 – 2021).  Given its industrial uses and half precious metal status, China reopening anticipation seems to be fully priced in and major driver behind the recent base metals that also have rallied and is showing resilience.  This month so far, broad based US dollar weakness coincided with falling VIX below 20 and credit spread declining towards 450bps on the back of falling treasury yields in the range between 20 and 40 bps particularly from 2 years onwards.  However the below graph shows shifts in yield curve of key tenors between now and 15th dec 22 when the last FOMC meeting took place with economic projections including non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) at 4% and PCE price index of 2%.  Clearly the big swings – rise in yield – were concentrated on the short end of the curve all the way upto three months while 10 year & 30 year increases were relatively subdued therefore resulting in bear flattener (short end rising faster than long end). Most recent unemployment rate was 3.5% that is the lowest in 50 years and below NAIRU 4% so there is about 0.5% gap in between.  Also last week’s Dec core PCE YoY was 4.4% - the lowest out of four measures of inflation - therefore both of these figures still seem to suggest inflationary condition still exists hence current futures market’s implication of mere two 25bps hikes next two meetings taking the terminal rate at around 4.9% looks to be far from the reality so USD weakness may not last for long – particularly against AUD (S&P500 sensitivity) and JPY (carry trade) that both had the biggest returns of 6% among G10 currencies post last FOMC meeting - with potential reversal being a scenario that shouldn’t be ruled out. Another component of the yield curve other than direction of yield is anticipating whether the curve will steepen or flatten.  Two of the mostly watched spreads – 2y10y (-70bps) and 3m10y (-110bps) - have been extremely inverted for some time hence raising the probability of recession based on the historical correlations.  Major driver behind the inversion of the yield curve has been a significant rise in short end of the curve reacting to Fed’s rate hikes in typical fashion and may continue to see further flattening or inversion but with the recent downshift consensus with descending inflation numbers, it would be worth watching for trade setup by buying the spread - buy 2 year futures ZTH3 and sell 10 year futures ZNH3 while matching duration or DV01 (dollar value of 1 basis point change) - with reward risk that could favor a steepener instead, should the inflation remains elevated above the Fed’s target longer than expected alongside record low level of unemployment while also we have seen AU (7.8%) & NZ (7.2%) with higher than expected CPI last week. e.g. Long 100 lot ZTH3 and short 52 lot ZNH3 with spread ratio of 0.5169 (DV01 of $34.11 / $65.98) in the anticipation of profiting from steepening either by long end yield rising faster than short end yield (bear steepener) or short end yield falling faster than long end yield (bull steepener) but loss from more flattening and breakeven from parallel shift which is probably most unlikely scenario. Yield curve shift 2y10y and 3m10y of yield curve spreads   Source: ST Note - Nothing but yield curve | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

The dollar weakened on Monday to near an eight-month low ahead of a series of central bank meetings this week. The US Federal Reserve is likely to continue to ease the pace of monetary policy tightening at its upcoming meetings and plans to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its next two policy meetings. USD/JPY USD/JPY pair struggled to hold significant gains above the psychological 130.00 level. The strength of the yen was limited by dovish comments from the BoJ president. BoJ Governor Kuroda continues to maintain his lenient stance on monetary policy. This comes as investors grow optimistic that rising inflation will result in a hawkish move away from the BoJ. Any further hawkish change from the BoJ seems unlikely with Governor Kuroda at the helm and could happen when the governor steps down in April. Driven by the risk associated with key central bank events, investors seem reluctant to bet on an aggressive bear market around the USD/JPY pair. In addition, comments from BoJ chairman Kuroda Haruhiko that the central bank must continue its easing policy and keep the inflation target at 2% limit the gains for the JPY. USD/JPY Pair started the week at 129.8040 and then increased. Currently, the pair is holding above 130.00. EUR/USD Higher Spanish inflation data supported the euro. The euro surged above $1.09 in late January, hovering around its highest level since April last year as investors awaited multiple central bank meetings this week as they digested stronger than expected Spanish inflation figures. The European Central Bank is due to raise interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since 2008, while investors will also be on the lookout for signs of slowing the pace of monetary policy tightening at its March meeting. Read next: Glovo Planned To Lay Off 250 Workers Worldwide, The Middle East Is Already Suffering From A Water Shortage| FXMAG.COM EUR/USD pair gained traction and climbed above 1.0900 during the European session, but failed to hold and fell to 1.0893. GBP/USD The cable price (GBP/USD) was similar to the EUR/USD rate, i.e. it rose above 1.24 in the European session, but it did not hold and fell to 1.2384. The slight selling pressure around the US dollar ahead of key central bank policy announcements this week appears to be helping the pair push higher. GBP/USD traders can expect interest rate decisions from both sides of the pair this week, with the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England expected to make February moves on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The Bank of England is to raise its base rates by half a percentage point. That would take them to 4%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, with further increases expected. However, there have been some objections to the interest rate setting by the Monetary Policy Committee and it seems that a smaller hike is still on the table. AUD/USD AUD/USD prices have fallen to a three-day low of around 0.7075 in the last hour, although any significant drop still seems elusive. The Aussie pair has lost its momentum above 0.7100 but is not falling significantly and is trading at 0.7076. The Australian remains supported by expectations of further policy tightening from the Reserve Bank of Australia amid soaring inflation and China's swift reopening after Covid restrictions have boosted the global economic outlook. Australia's annual inflation rose 7.8% in December, the RBA has already raised the cash rate by a total of 300 basis points at eight consecutive meetings in 2022, bringing borrowing costs to a 10-year high of 3.1%. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 101.26-28 intraday lows on Monday to terminate its ongoing triangle consolidation before turning higher. The index has rallied sharply since then and is seen to be trading just below 102.00 at this point in writing. The recent rally could be seen as the first leg of a potential bullish breakout above the 102.20-50 zone. As depicted on the 4H chart here, the US dollar index has completed its larger-degree drop from 114.70, which began in September 2022. Prices are expected to produce a meaningful rally towards 106.50 and up to 109.50. Also, note that the above rally could be corrective and just a retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 101.10. The US dollar index could find strong intraday support around the 101.40-50 zone and it might be seen as an opportunity to add further long positions. On the other side, please keep a watch on 102.20, as a break higher would confirm that the bulls are back in control and want to accelerate the rise. Only a consistent break below 101.00 would negate the bullish scenario. Trading idea: Potential bullish reversal against 100.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310718

Summary:  Markets see red on concern FAANG’s will bite into markets, while there is worry the Fed won’t cut rates this year like the market expects, this has resulted in traders booking profits ahead of end of month. Commodities see short term pull back risks, with prices already down from fresh peaks; oil is down 5.6%, iron ore, copper and aluminium lose 2% ahead of the Fed meeting. While Australian shares hold steady, defying negative leads from Wall Street. In FX the US dollar picks up, pushing most currencies off course, with the Aussie dollar down 0.8%. What's the short vs long term narrative. Markets see red on concern FAANG’s will bite into markets, while there is worry the Fed won’t cut rates this year as markets has priced in Ahead of the Fed, ECB, and BOE meeting this week, for the first time in 2023, with the central banks potentially setting the course of interest rates for the year, risk management resulted in traders and investors booking profits ahead of end of month, which dragged the S&P500(US500.I) down 1.3% and the Nasdaq 100 (NAS100.I) 2.1%. The worry is that the market believes the Fed will only hike by 0.25% this week and 0.25% next month. Two and done, before cutting in July. There is also a risk the Fed says it has “more work to do”, which could send equities into a tailspin. Our view is given financial conditions have improved, and there is a 20% chance of a recession, the Fed can keep rates higher for longer. This is why we think there could be a short term potential correction, so potentially consider taking profits and buying downside optionality (puts), and consider tight stops. Secondly, the worry is that major tech company earnings will continue to slump, with average overall  earnings down 0.3% this quarter, across the 145 of the S&P500 companies. This is why profit taking in Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet is occurring ahead of them reporting results. Ultimately, we think their outlooks could set the tone for equities this year. Consider FAANG names like Facebook/Meta are up 61%, Apple is up 10%, Amazon is up 20% and Google’s parent Alphabet is up 12% from recent lows. Click here for more on US earnings. Read next: Major Currency Pairs Are Waiting For Central Banks Decisions, USD/JPY Pair Rose Above 130.00, | FXMAG.COM Commodity short term pull back risk – with prices already down from fresh peaks; oil down 5.6%, iron ore, copper and aluminium lose 2% ahead of the Fed   On Monday oil dropped 2.4%, while most commodities lost almost 1%, with the markets awaiting further evidence China is picking up demand - just as BHP, Rio and FMG alluded to in their quarterly results. It seems traders are torn between real demand physically rising, but awaiting the Fed’s decision this week, which could result in the US dollar spiking, that would ultimately pressure commodity prices down. So these factors raise the risk of a short-term correction across the board. That said, resources prices have been really strong up 17-70% on from their lows. In 2023 alone iron ore and copper are up 9%, Aluminium up 11%, spot gold up 5%. However, with commodity prices falling, it also raises the alarm that Aussie dollar and the Aussie share market could be at risk of a short term correction or consolidation as well. The key is to watch the US dollar index. However keep in mind, over the longer term, commodity prices are supported higher, underpinned by rising demand over course of the year, and lower physical supply. For more on commodities, see Saxo’s Commitments of Traders report, that highlights broad buying slowed in recent weeks. Australian shares hold steady, defying negative leads from Wall Street. Australian retail sales fall off a cliff, borrowing falls Australia’s share market, as measured by the ASX200(ASXSP200.I) opened 0.3% higher today at 7,501 defying the futures and US markets negative lead. Not only are Australia shares outperforming US shares this year, but also UK’s FTSE. However, given materials prices could be at risk of a shorter term pull-back, it’s worth pointing out the technical indicators suggest the ASX200’s uptrend is weakening. Our Technical Analyst suggests a possible short term correction down to 7,167 should not be ruled out. However, over the longer term, we think upside in the ASX200 is intact with mining companies to report some of the strongest earnings on record, and provide their strongest outlooks in several years amid China reopening. For stocks, ETFs and baskets to watch, click here.  In company news today, Gold Road Resources (GOR) reported a drop in production in the prior quarter and higher costs due to inflationary pressure, but guided for higher grades in 2023. This follows Oz Minerals (OZL) also guiding for higher costs, which paints a picture of what we can expect for full year earnings season next month. In economic news, retail sales fell 3.9% in December, shocking the market, which expected sales to only decline 0.3%. On top of that, borrowing data also missed expectations. Borrowing rose 0.3% in December, vs consensus expecting lending to rise 0.5%. Today’s data is telling as it shows interest rates have taken effect on the consumer, and supports the market thinking that the RBA could potentially pause and then cut rates later this year.   In FX the US dollar picks up, pushing most currencies off course The US dollar index has bounced up off it low and risen 0.5% and pressured most currencies lower, with the Aussie dollar (AUDUSD) falling 0.8% from its high, with the Aussie buying 0.7061 US. The Aussie against the US has fallen under its 200-day moving average, while there is caution the Fed’s Wednesday’s decision could cause the US dollar to rise. Should the Fed only hike by 0.25% as expected and guide for one more hike, or if the Fed mentions its hikes have been effective, or that it sees interest rates having a lag effect, then the AUDUSD could potentially rally back up. Supporting longer term upside in the Aussie is the rise of China’s economy and commodity buying. From a technical perspective, the bulls may like to hear the 50 day moving crossed above the 200, indicating the longer term rally could remain intact, despite the RSI indicating, there are currently more sellers right now, than buyers.  Stay tuned to Saxo's inspiration page for trading and investing ideas. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: Video: Will FAANGs results bite into markets and what if the Fed says it won’t cut rates this year, like the market thinks | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

The US dollar was on an upward trend against its major trading partners early Tuesday ahead of a busy schedule of data releases for markets. The Fed is coming soon. The US central bank is expected to raise interest rates again to fight inflation. However, fears seem to be growing that the price of victory here may be a recession. USD/JPY The Japanese yen (JPY) continues to be supported by fresh speculation that high inflation could lead the Bank of Japan to adopt a more hawkish stance later this year. Also, the overall weaker tone around stock markets further reinforces the safe haven for the JPY. This, along with the underlying bearish sentiment around the US dollar, puts some downward pressure on USD/JPY. The pair lost in the earlier trading hours but is trading above 130.10 again. EUR/USD The euro fell to USD 1.08 in the last session of January, but remains close to nine-month highs. Investors await the ECB's monetary policy decision on Thursday, with the central bank expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since 2008. At the same time, data indicating an unexpected growth in the euro area in Q4 2022 by 0.1%, beating market forecasts of a decrease of 0.1%, and fresh CPI data for France and Spain, showing an increase in inflation in January, gave hope that The ECB will soon end its tightening cycle. On the negative side, retail sales in Germany fell by 5.3%MoM in December, much worse than expected. The EUR/USD pair has been falling since the morning, even significantly in the European session, but remains above 1.08 and trades at 1.0850. Read next: The Government Pension Fund Global Suffers Losses| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The cable continued its decline in the early hours of the Asian session, falling below the 1.2350 level. GBP/USD saw a slight rebound to trade just above the 1.2350 level heading into the European open where the dollar bull returned pushing GBP/USD towards the 1.23000 handle. The GBP/USD pair remains under bearish pressure and is currently trading at 1.2321. The rally on the GBP/USD pair appears to have lost momentum, however, given the key risk events, the move could be due to market participants repositioning ahead of the storm. With the focus on central banks, there is still a real possibility of a policy divergence between the FED and the BoE, which should benefit the cable in some way. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points while the Bank of England by 50 basis points as it fights persistent inflation. ING strategists said they expected BoE's decision to have a broadly neutral impact on the pound against the dollar. AUD/USD AUD/USD remains under strong selling pressure for the second day in a row on Tuesday and drops to more than a week low ahead of the North American session. The Australian dollar fell towards $0.70, retreating further from recent highs after data showed the country's retail sales fell much more than expected in December as heightened inflationary pressures and higher interest rates dampened consumer spending. Still, Australians are supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to fight inflation, expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in February and China's swift reopening after Covid restrictions have boosted the global economic outlook. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through the 101.65 low during the early Asian session on Wednesday, testing the 101.63 lows earlier. The pullback was expected and projected with a potential support zone defined as 101.60-70 earlier. Also, note that prices peaked through 102.20-30 before turning lower to produce a meaningful retracement. The near targets are 102.50 and above 103.00. The US dollar index terminated its larger-degree decline, which started from 114.70 earlier, around 101.10 as seen on the 4H chart here. The lower-degree waves seem to be working on the higher side and a sharp rally could be expected from here with 101.25 support intact. The bulls will remain inclined to target 105.35, which serves as strong resistance. The US dollar index might be preparing to retrace its entire drop between 114.70 and 101.00 in the next few weeks. The potential upside targets are 106.50 and up to 109.50. Also, note that 109.50 is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 101.00. So, a high probability remains for a bearish turn if prices reach there. Trading idea: Potential rally against 100.00 Good luck! Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/310919

Everything is pointing to the fact that today's well-telegraphed 25bp hike by the Fed will be the penultimate move before ending the cycle. However, Chair Powell and the FOMC may see little interest in sounding materially less hawkish just yet. Ultimately, a push-back against a pivot and rate-cut speculation could hit risk assets and lift the dollar today Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell USD: Hawkish Fed can lift the dollar The dollar enters FOMC day after having shown some resilience over the past few sessions, which was likely the consequence of some defensive positioning ahead of key central bank meetings, which kept risk assets capped. Still, the last important piece of data before the Federal Reserve announcement – yesterday’s Employment Cost Index – offered more reasons to think the Fed is indeed close to the peak. Labour costs eased for a fourth consecutive quarter in 4Q, moving from 1.2% to 1.0%, the same levels as the fourth quarter of 2021. This is likely easing some concerns in Washington about inflation stickiness, and underpins a scenario where slowing price pressures favour less hawkish rhetoric. The question is whether such unwinding in the hawkish narrative will already emerge in today’s FOMC announcement. We doubt that. As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect a 25bp rate hike today, which is the consensus view and is fully priced in by the swaps market. We think that Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues simply have little interest in sending strong signals that they are indeed close to the peak, which only risks generating a premature fall in interest rates. A reiteration that ongoing rate increases remain appropriate, inflation is high and that the jobs market remains tight despite slowing growth, seems to us the most likely content of today’s communication “package” by Powell. He will most likely be asked about the current market pricing for around 50bp of easing in the second half of the year. Using the same rationale, Powell still has all the interest in pushing back against rate cut speculation. In practice, we suspect the Fed will end up cutting more than 50bp as the US economic slack deepens, but that is not a story for today’s announcement. So, we are in the camp of expecting Powell to maintain his hawkish rhetoric despite this appearing less appropriate given the backdrop of slowing inflation and growth. This outcome may ultimately have some negative implications for risk and give the dollar some support, as bets on a pivot, and potentially on rate cuts, are scaled back. Any communication missteps or deliberate dovish tilts, on the other hand, can surely revive that dollar bear trend that appears to have halted lately. We also have some US data to watch today: ISM manufacturing, ADP payrolls and JOLTS jobs openings. Substantial surprises on those releases are likely needed to drive major dollar moves ahead of such a big event like the FOMC. Francesco Pesole EUR: Inflation surprise already priced in? EUR/USD will inevitably be heavily impacted by the post-FOMC reaction today. In line with our view for a positive impact on the dollar, we think the 1.0800 support could be heavily tested after the Fed announcement. Before that, however, all eyes will be on the eurozone inflation figures, which should show more stickiness than previously thought after evidence of persistent price pressure in Spain and France. We suspect much of this inflation story has now been priced in, and a still quite hawkish pricing for European Central Bank tightening (150bp of hikes by June) suggests the room for further increases in rate expectations – and by extension, for another big ECB-driven EUR rally - has shrunk for now. We think that EUR/USD will ultimately come out weaker from these two days of central bank activity (here’s our ECB market preview). An exploration of the 1.0700-1.0750 range is surely possible in the near term, even though the longer-term outlook keeps pointing to a dollar decline and EUR/USD strength. Francesco Pesole GBP: Downside risks from a hawkish Fed Stronger ECB rate expectations are likely to be blamed for the strengthening in EUR/GBP beyond the 0.8800 level. As discussed in the EUR section above, we think there is now less scope for the ECB to push the euro even higher, which means more fuel to the EUR/GBP rally may be mostly a function of risk sentiment rather than monetary policy divergence. Indeed, since the pound tends to be more sensitive to global risk sentiment than the euro, the risks are skewed to the upside for EUR/GBP today given our baseline scenario for a hawkish Fed weighing on risk assets. Cable may drop to the 1.2200 mark today. Francesco Pesole SEK: Krona undermined by domestic woes The Swedish krona has been a negative standout in the G10 space over the past few days, as unstable risk sentiment offered a breeding ground for rising bearish bets linked to a worsening domestic outlook in Sweden. We analyse this theme in more detail in “Sweden: Krona increasingly pricing in domestic woes”. In short, EUR/SEK is currently 2.5% overvalued in the near term as markets appear to be pricing in the increasing likelihood of a pessimistic scenario for the Swedish property market and the economy. Since we don’t believe the risk of a black swan scenario in Sweden has materially increased, we think that SEK will recover gradually over the coming months. Looking at the very short-term however, SEK’s sensitivity to risk sentiment still puts it in a vulnerable position today ahead of the Fed announcement. EUR/SEK is currently trading around 3% below its historic highs (11.68 in 2009), and risks that those levels will be tested in the short-term (although not our base case) have admittedly risen lately. We still target sub-11.00 levels before the summer, as recently discussed in our EUR/SEK scenario analysis. Francesco Pesole Read this article on THINK

The dollar has broken to new lows for the year after a relaxed-sounding Fed Chair Powell said there were the first clear signs of disinflation. He also failed to push back too aggressively on lower bond yields. Attention turns to Europe, with rate meetings in the eurozone, the UK, and the Czech Republic. Expect European FX to remain bid and the dollar offered The dollar broke to new lows for the year after the Fed's press conference USD: Phlegmatic Powell offers little pushback against the rally The dollar was relatively unchanged on the release of last night's FOMC statement, but Fed Chair Powell's press conference comments sent it around 1% lower across the board. Listening to the press conference, a few things that stood out to us were: for the first time, we can see the disinflation process has started, a refusal to push back against the softening in financial conditions in the form of lower bond yields and higher equities, a data-dependent approach to what the Fed may do with their dot plots in March (lower the expected peak in the tightening cycle?) a near Goldilocks scenario where inflation can come down, while unemployment does not have to rise US rates softened on the press conference, with pricing for the Fed funds rate in December 2023 being cut by 10bp to 4.40%. In fact, one can argue that if US rates are not going to be cut as much as the market expects later this year, it will be because of decent growth, rather than sticky inflation. No wonder equity markets liked the press conference and the dollar softened as investors chased growth stories. As we mentioned in the FOMC review, lower volatility in the rates space will be feeding into lower FX volatility. The MOVE index, an index of implied volatility across the US Treasury curve has dropped back to levels last seen in March 2022. Assuming no major fireworks from today's ECB/BoE meeting or tomorrow's US jobs report, lower volatility will support the carry trade. Here, we like the Mexican peso where high risk-adjusted carry and, unlike the CEE high yielders, positive real interest rates should keep the peso very much in demand. Positioning is probably the biggest factor preventing a further dollar decline right now, but the benign macro story does favour DXY continuing to drift lower to the 100 area. Chris Turner EUR: Too early for the ECB to soften its hawkish stance The European Central Bank announces its policy decision at 1415CET today and President Christine Lagarde holds her press conference at 1345CET. A 50bp hike is widely expected as is a hawkish message that will support market pricing of a further 75-100bp of tightening into the summer. Please see our ECB preview here and also the key factors that will drive FX and rates markets here. Our rates strategists think that Lagarde could push back against 2024 easing expectations and see eurozone rates rise in the five-year part of the curve.  EUR/USD opens in Europe above 1.10 - powered by last night's benign FOMC meeting and press conference. Two-year EUR:USD swap differentials have narrowed into 108bp - the narrowest advantage for dollar rates since late 2021. As we discussed in our EUR/USD forecast revision article, a sharp narrowing in rate differentials stands to become a bigger driver of EUR/USD this year and should carry it to the 1.15 area in the second quarter. For the shorter term - there is not much resistance now until the 1.12 area. But buy-side positioning is the longest in the euro since the summer of 2021 meaning that the rally could prove hard work. The EUR/USD story is positive, however. Chris Turner The Danish central bank (DN) is set to follow the ECB with a rate hike today. There has been increasing speculation that the DN will hike by 10bp less than the ECB to widen the EUR-DKK rate gap. EUR/DKK is trading around 7.4400, so it currently has a cushion against the lower bound of the peg band (which is around 7.4360). With inflation running at 8.7% in Denmark, we think there is a higher chance that the DN will prioritise fighting inflation for now and follow the ECB with a 50bp hike, which should keep a cap on EUR/DKK for now. After all, the prospect of another 50bp ECB hike in March means that the DN will likely have another chance to under-deliver relatively soon, should EUR/DKK come under fresh pressure and FX intervention start to appear unsustainable.  Francesco Pesole GBP: Again, too soon for the BoE to go soft on inflation 1300CET should see the Bank of England hike the Bank Rate 50bp to 4.00%. Governor Andrew Bailey holds a press conference at 1330CET. Please see our full BoE preview here - including voting patterns for the nine MPC members. Some market participants see a pattern of the BoE hiking forcefully and having a hawkish statement, but treading more dovishly in the press conference. On balance, we think Governor Bailey will not want to push back against expectations for further hikes to 4.25/4.50% this summer but may push back against the cut starting to be priced for December. Benign global conditions are supportive for the risk-sensitive sterling and suggest GBP/USD could make a run at the 1.2450/2500 area this week. EUR/GBP has drifted higher again. On balance, we would favour continued outperformance given the greater scope for convergence in eurozone and sterling rates at the shorter end of the curve. EUR/GBP may end the quarter near 0.89, but push up to the 0.90/91 area later in the year. Chris Turner CZK: CNB to confirm wait-and-see approach Today, the Czech National Bank meeting is on the agenda in the region. We expect rates and the FX commitment to remain unchanged, so the main focus will be on the central bank's new forecast and the governor's press conference. With strong rate cut expectations priced in, the main question for today will be what the CNB's expectations are for January inflation, which will set the inflation path for this year. In general, the new forecast should show a higher inflation trajectory compared to the November version, but at the same time, the koruna is more than 3% stronger compared to CNB expectations. The Czech koruna has reached its strongest levels in more than a decade in recent weeks and is, in our view, the most overweight currency position held by investors in the region at the moment. We believe the main driver right now is falling gas prices and improving sentiment in Europe rather than local factors. However, the central bank plays an important role in determining the koruna. Thus, any hint of an end to the FX intervention regime would likely lead to a sharp depreciation. Overall, however, we believe that the CNB and the koruna do not have too much to offer at the moment. Although gas prices may push to stronger levels in the short term, we think the koruna is too strong currently and rather expect a return to the 24.00 EUR/CZK level. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Markets questioned the hawkish message by both the Fed and the ECB this week, but we think Powell gave more reasons to reasonably fuel dovish expectations. Still, the ECB communication hiccups mean that EUR/USD may struggle to break higher before the end of the first quarter. Today, eyes on payrolls and ISM services: the dollar likely faces downside risks ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chair Jerome Powell USD: Downside risks from data today The dollar has essentially erased all the post-FOMC losses after markets questioned the hawkish rhetoric by the ECB and European rates went on a huge rally yesterday. We analyse what the last two days of central bank meetings have meant for EUR/USD in this note.   It’s been quite clear that markets have doubted both Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s attempts to hang on to hawkish communication, although dovish bets on the Fed appear more strongly founded at this stage. This is both because Powell seemed more relaxed about the easing in financial conditions and did not convey urgency in pushing back against rate cuts, and because the Fed has taken rates into a much more restrictive territory which inevitably leaves a larger room for easing in 2023. What is clear is that markets will continue to focus heavily on data. With volatility abating after the key Fed and ECB announcements and some of those defensive trades (due to the imminence of key risk events) being unwound, today’s non-farm payrolls release in the US brings mostly downside risks for the dollar, in our view. After all, a tight jobs market has already been factored in by the Fed (Powell even admitted inflation might fall without hurting employment), but it’s really the declining inflation story that is suggesting a peak in Fed funds rates is imminent. Accordingly, markets may focus more on the wage growth figures rather than the headline employment print. Any evidence that wage growth is losing pace and/or that hiring is slowing down materially would likely fuel rate cut expectations further, and hit the dollar. US 2-year rates are currently trading 10bp above the psychological 4.00% mark: a break below may exacerbate a dollar slump. Should such dollar weakness materialise, we think that high-beta currencies may emerge as key winners thanks to the positive impact on risk assets. ISM service numbers will also be closely watched after the latest release was a key driver of the negative re-rating in US growth. Francesco Pesole Read next: Starbucks Revenues Are High Despite High Costs| FXMAG.COM ECB: Dealing with unclear communication Should today’s payrolls trigger a dollar contraction, the euro may emerge as a laggard in the G10 space. Markets are strongly questioning the ability of the ECB to keep hiking at a “stable” pace (as the ECB said in its statement) beyond the March meeting. Here are the review notes from our economics team of yesterday’s statement and press conference. As our ECB watcher puts it, Lagarde’s press conference brought more fog than clarity. And we think it is indeed the communication hiccups in Frankfurt that is driving EUR/USD weakness. We remain of the view that at least 75bp of extra tightening will be delivered by the ECB, which still puts EUR/USD in a position for a big rally in the second quarter – when US short-term rates may come off more steadily. The ECB communication troubles may cap EUR/USD before then. Today, the balance of risks is still tilted to the upside for EUR/USD as US jobs data will be the key driver. The question is how comfortable markets are with re-testing 1.1000: we suspect a break above that level is a bit premature unless US figures come in very weak. Francesco Pesole GBP: BoE close to the peak The Bank of England hiked rates by 50bp yesterday, but offered a number of signals that it is indeed close to the peak. As discussed in our economics team’s reaction piece, a key hint that the MPC is laying the groundwork for the end of its tightening cycle is that it has dropped its pledge to raise rates “forcefully” (i.e. by 50bp). Incidentally, the BoE’s two-year inflation projection – a key driver of policy decisions – is now well below target. We still doubt this was the last hike of the cycle, and expect another 25bp move at the next meeting in March. Markets are torn around a move in either March or May, but are still fully pricing in an additional 25bp of tightening. The pound was slightly weaker after an initially positive reaction to the BoE statement. In practice, it appears that the BoE is not diverging much from market expectations, which means that it may be up to data in the UK to drive any large swings in the pound rather than surprises from the BoE. With markets doubting the ECB's hawkishness, EUR/GBP may manage to stay below 0.9000 for now, although a break higher seems highly likely over the coming months. Francesco Pesole CZK: CNB continues to support FX but is not a decisive factor The Czech National Bank (CNB) left rates and the FX intervention regime unchanged yesterday, in line with expectations. However, there was still room for a hawkish surprise. During the press conference, the Governor said that the record-strong koruna is not a problem for the economy and on the contrary, it is a welcome inflation-fighter. He thus implicitly confirmed that the intervention regime will be with us for a long time despite the fact that the CNB last intervened in September last year. Moreover, he told reporters that current expectations of significant rate cuts this year are wrong and rates will remain at higher levels for longer. However, the main driver at the moment, in our view, are global factors – falling gas prices and a higher EUR/USD – and the CNB is more of a complementary factor for the positive koruna. Moreover, the koruna still offers decent and stable carry. Thus, the main enemy at the moment is the market positioning, which was already the longest in the CEE before the CNB meeting in our view. Thus, the koruna may test 23.70 levels in the short term but the EUR/CZK move lower is limited in our view and the koruna will be rather stable compared to CEE peers. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK TagsFX EURUSD Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The dollar rose slightly on Friday, maintaining some momentum after jumps in the previous session after a series of decisions by central banks in Europe. The rise in the USD can be attributed to some shift in trading position ahead of the closely watched US monthly employment report. Trading was relatively limited as markets awaited the latest US employment data later in the day, which could change US Federal Reserve policy. Weekly initial jobless claims in the US released on Thursday indicated strength in the labor market and boosted expectations for strong non-farm payrolls (NFP). USD/JPY The US dollar gained on the last day of the week and looks set to continue its bounce from the nine-month low recorded on Thursday, which is seen as a tailwind for USD/JPY. The Japanese yen, on the other hand, continues to benefit from expectations that high inflation could result in a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) later this year. Bets were lifted by Japan's nationwide core inflation, which hit its highest annualized level since December 1981. This is seen as another factor keeping USD/JPY in check, at least for now. The USD/JPY pair traded high around 128.80 at the beginning of the day, but fell in the following hours. Currently, the USD/JPY pair is trading below 128.40. EUR/USD Yesterday, the European Central Bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point on Thursday, but the euro fell below 1.0900 after ECB comments. During the ECB press conference, President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that the outlook for the eurozone has become less worrying for growth and inflation.  The ECB noted the likelihood of another similar rate hike next month, the meeting and its aftermath were in line with market expectations. Early Friday, ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus said an interest rate cut this year was not likely. With a similarly hawkish accent, policymaker Peter Kazimierz noted that he did not see the March interest rate hike as the last one. These comments seem to help EUR/USD contain losses for now. The euro posted slight gains against the US dollar on Friday, thanks in part to news that the eurozone economy saw some gains last month. The EUR/USD pair in the European session is trading above 1.09 again at around 1.0940. Read next: Japanese Startup Aerwins Technologies Will Be On NASDAQ| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The Bank of England raised interest rates for the tenth time but hinted that its tightening cycle may be coming to an end, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference following the Fed's 25 bp rate hike that the process of "disinflation" in the United States seemed to be in progress. Moreover, BoE President Andrew Bailey said that inflation will continue to fall this year and faster in the second half of 2023. In fact, the central bank forecast that the annual CPI inflation in the UK will fall from the current 10.5% to around 4% in 2020. toward the end of the year. This, in turn, has fueled speculation that the current cycle of rate hikes may be coming to an end and weakening the pound sterling. GBP/USD gained momentum during the European trading hours and went positive above 1.2250 during the day. Currently, the GBP/USD pair is on the border of the level. AUD/USD The Australian dollar falls below $0.71, pulling back slightly from nearly eight-month highs on overall dollar strength. Despite this, Australians continue to be supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to tighten its policy. Currently, Aussie Pair is trading at around 0.7060. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

A considerably calmer week ahead compared to this week, at least in terms of the economic calendar.  Monday 06.02. 09:30 GMT, UK Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) January UK Purchasing Managers Index provides insight into the activity level within the construction industry as reported by purchasing managers. This measure gives an understanding of the condition of the UK construction industry, as purchasing managers are considered to have access to first-hand data on their company's performance.   A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction in the construction industry. UK construction companies have signalled a resuming slowdown in business activity growth since the November data came out, reflecting slower demand and reduced risk appetite due to higher borrowing costs and uncertainties about the economic outlook. The forecast for the January PMI is 49.6, indicating a slight contraction in the construction sector.  Higher than expected reading may have a bullish effect on the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the GBP.  Impact: GBP Tuesday 07.02. 13:30 GMT, US Trade Balance (Dec) The trade balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reporting period. A positive figure indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported. The US trade balance has historically been negative, and a worsening trend could be observed over the long term. In March 2022, the US trade balance surpassed -100 billion USD for the first time in history, and since then, it has fallen to -61.50 billion USD, according to the November data. December's data are expected to show a slight deterioration to -68.70 billion USD. A higher-than-forecast reading may be seen as bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-forecast reading (larger negative number) may be interpreted as bearish for the USD. An outflow of USD from the country and lower foreign demand for US products during a trade deficit could lead to a depreciation of the currency, which in turn may boost the country's exports as its goods become cheaper for the rest of the world. Impact: USD Read next: Japanese Startup Aerwins Technologies Will Be On NASDAQ| FXMAG.COM Friday 10.02. 13:30 GMT, Canada Employment Change (Jan) The employment change report shows the change in the number of people employed, which is an essential indicator of consumer spending. While an increase in the number of people in employment usually signals a positive move in economic expansion, market participants may be hoping for a lower number as this would indicate that the central bank's tightening policy is working and further interest rate hikes may not be necessary.  Previous figures for employment changes in Canada have been very volatile. While August saw a decline (-39.7 thousand jobs), September and November showed slight gains (+21.1 thousand and +10.1 thousand jobs, respectively), followed by increases of over 100 thousand in October and December. Friday's data for January are expected to show a possible increase of 8 thousand.  A higher-than-forecast reading may have a bullish effect on the Canadian dollar and a bearish effect on the stock market. In contrast, lower-than-forecast reading may have a bearish impact on the Canadian dollar and a bullish effect on the stock market. Impact: CAD, S&P/TSX Composite Index Stocks to watch Activision Blizzard (ATVI) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 12/2022. Forecast: 0.7946. Positive earnings surprise in 7 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Monday, February 6, after the market closes. Walt Disney (DIS) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 12/2022. Forecast: 1.51. Positive earnings surprise in 7 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Wednesday, February 8, after the market closes. AstraZeneca ADR (AZN) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 12/2022. Forecast: 0.6825. Positive earnings surprise in 7 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Thursday, February 9, before the market opens. PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 12/2022. Forecast: 1.19. Positive earnings surprise in 9 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Thursday, February 9, after the market closes. Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The dollar jumped on Friday after data showed that US employers created many more jobs in January than economists had expected, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more leeway to hold interest rate hikes. The dollar recently rose 1.12% to 102.92 on the day against a basket of currencies, the highest since Jan. 12 and is on track for its best day since Sept. 23. USD/JPY USD/JPY started the trading week at 130.4790. For a day and a half, the pair traded in the range of 129.80-130.45. Subsequently, the USD/JPY pair started its decline below the lower limit and dropped below the 129.00 level. Trading below 129.00 lasted until Friday where in the US session the USD/JPY pair sharply rebounded to above 131.00 and thus ended the trading week at 131.15. The final level was just below the week's high of USD/JPY at 131.1940. The difference between the highest and the nanny level of trading is quite large, because the pair reached the lowest level at 128.1160. EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair started the trading week at 1.0875. For a day and a half, the pair traded below 1.0900. After that, the EUR/USD pair rose above 1.0900 and reached a weekly high of 1.1030. Trading above 1.0900 continued until Friday, where in the US session the EUR/USD pair fell sharply below 1.0800 and thus ended the week of trading at the week's low at 1.0798. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points as expected and said it intends to make another 50 basis point hike in March, comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde weighed on the euro. Early Friday, ECB policymakers Gediminas Simkus and Peter Kazimierz said an interest rate cut this year was not likely. Read next: The UK Economy Expects A Decline And Is Gearing Up For Recession| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The Cable Pair started the week at 1.2404. For the next two days, the GBP/USD pair traded around 1.2300 until it broke out at 1.2400, after reaching the weekly high, the pair traded just below this level. The drop below 1.2300 came closer to Friday where the GBP/USD pair plummeted below 1.2100. GBP/USD ended the week at 1.2056, which is the lowest trading level of the week, the lowest since Jan. 6 and its worst day since Dec. 15. The Bank of England, as widely expected, raised its key rate by a further 50 basis points to 4%, its highest level since autumn 2008, indicative of more sustained price pressures. However, the BoE removed the wording that "they will respond with force if necessary." Moreover, BoE President Andrew Bailey said that inflation will continue to fall this year and faster in the second half of 2023. In fact, the central bank forecast that the annual CPI inflation in the UK will fall from the current 10.5% to around 4% in toward the end of the year. This, in turn, has fueled speculation that the current cycle of rate hikes may be coming to an end and weakening the pound sterling. AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair started trading at 0.7111. The pair then traded in the 0.7000-0.7075 range. On Thursday, the pair managed to break above 0.7100 and record a weekly high of 0.7156. Closer to Friday, the couple began their decline. The Aussie Pair ended the week at its lowest level of trade for the week, at 0.6924. The Australian awaits the RBA's interest rate decision on Tuesday 7 February. With the December quarter 2022 CPI print showing headline inflation is still running strong at 7.8 per cent, expectations are for a further increase in the cash rate. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

The dollar is around 10% off the highs seen in late September, and understandably the view is that the dollar bull cycle – which started summer 2021 – is well and truly over. Consensus expects the dollar to weaken further this year, and we agree Dollar bear trend could pick up speed in the second quarter At the heart of the bearish dollar view is the call that the Fed will shift to a reflationary stance in the second half of 2023, US short-dated yields will fall and those yield differentials will move against the dollar. This story should be particularly acute for EUR/USD, where sticky core inflation in the eurozone means that the European Central Bank will not be considering rate cuts until late 2024. At the same time, lower natural gas prices have seen the eurozone terms of trade improve markedly and justify fundamentally higher levels of the euro. Assuming that the China reopening story continues to evolve positively, we think this confluence of factors can drive EUR/USD steadily higher throughout 2023. Most of the gains, however, may come in the second quarter, when US inflation is seen falling quite sharply. Sustained EUR/USD gains beyond 1.15 may be harder to achieve in the second half – especially if US debt ceiling negotiations are pushed to the limit. Some would argue that the US debt ceiling is a bullish factor for the dollar – prompting a flight to quality. Yet the evidence from 2011 proves the contrary. Only were the US very close to an unthinkable sovereign debt default – i.e. extreme risk aversion – would the dollar derive any brief benefit. Read next: Elon Musk Was Found Not Guilty In The Tweets Case| FXMAG.COM USD/JPY should continue to fall throughout the year. Bank of Japan meetings will prove positive event risks for the yen as investors second-guess how quickly a new BoJ governing team will unwind the current very dovish settings. We target 120 here and the yen should outperform on the crosses whenever the benign investment conditions are challenged. Sterling is trading on a slightly steadier footing as the UK government attempts to restore fiscal credibility. The marginally better global investment environment is also helping the risk-sensitive pound. Sterling may hold its gains through the first half of the year as the Bank of England stays hawkish. But clearer signs of easing labour market and price pressures in the second half of 2023 will see conviction build of a forthcoming BoE easing cycle. EUR/GBP may well be ending the year nearer 0.90/91.  TagsFX Dollar   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The US dollar surged against its major trading partners early Monday ahead of a weak week of economic data and speeches by Fed officials resumed. The week starts calmly on Monday without key data. The US Monthly Employment Report (NFP) released on Friday showed that the economy added 517,000 jobs in January. jobs, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate. Moreover, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.4%, the lowest level since May 1969. USD/JPY The prevailing risk-avoiding environment – as indicated by the generally weaker tone in equity markets – provides a safe haven for the Japanese Yen (JPY) and acts as a headwind for USD/JPY. The yen came under pressure during the Asian session after it was reported that the Japanese government had approached Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiyi as a possible successor to Governor Kuroda. Market participants are of the opinion that Lieutenant Governor Amamiya will continue the policy of Governor Kuroda. The Japanese government has since dispelled rumors that it had approached Amamiya with a new BoJ governor to be announced in February. So USD/JPY started the week with a pattern above 132.00. Over the course of the day, the pair moved back below 132.00 but has now recovered and is trading at 132.1530. EUR/USD Rising tensions between the United States and China add to the bleak mood. On Friday, President Joe Biden postponed US Secretary of State Blinken's upcoming trip to China after a suspicious Beijing observation balloon that was flying in US skies was shot down. In terms of data, European figures were disappointing. On the one hand, Germany published December's factory orders, which fell by 10.1%YoY, much worse than expected. On the other hand, retail sales in the euro zone fell by 2.7% MoM in January. Moreover, we are likely to hear more aggressive statements from Lagarde, citing higher core inflation and growth forecasts. The EUR/USD pair stopped trading below 1.0790. At the beginning of the week, the EUR/USD pair is holding above 1.0765. Read next: Adani Group Company's Crisis Is Gaining Momentum, Finland Is The Happiest Country| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The British pound has not enjoyed a good reputation lately. The economic data was not strong enough to support sterling against its rivals, while the ongoing strikes and the threat of more in the coming weeks hit the mood. On Friday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release preliminary GDP data for Q4. Growth in the UK stalled in the fourth quarter of last year and may have reversed, fueling further recession fears. The GBP/USD pair tried to break above 1.2050 on Monday. Currently, the GBP/USD pair is trading above 1.2060. AUD/USD The Australian dollar collapsed on Friday after soaring US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data pushed the US dollar higher. Investors are cautious ahead of this week's decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points for the ninth consecutive time. Annual inflation in Australia rose 7.8% in December, the largest increase since 1990 and above market forecasts of 7.5%. The Aussie pair in the early hours of trading tried to catch up and climbed above 0.6940 but failed to maintain momentum and the Aussie Pair trades below that level again near 0.6900. Source: wsj.com, finance.yahoo.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through the 103.40 highs during the New York session on Monday before finding resistance. The index is seen to be trading close to 103.10 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare for the next run higher up to 104.50. Intraday dips remain possible and support comes in just below 103.00 to consider adding potential longs. The US dollar index is now on its way to carving a meaningful retracement towards 106.50 and up to 109.40 levels in the next several weeks. The initial price resistance is also seen through 105.35, which should be the near-term target for the bulls to break higher. We can expect a meaningful pullback thereafter through 103.00 before the rally could resume. The US dollar index is expected to reach the 109.00-40 zone to complete its corrective rally, which is also the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 100.50 levels respectively. A high probability remains for prices to turn lower from there but a persistent push above 111.65 will confirm that the bulls are looking to target fresh highs. Trading plan: Potential bullish wave against 100.50 Good luck!   Relevance up to 03:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/311597

The current market enviornment resembles last week's pre-FOMC one: the dollar is regaining ground as markets position themselves for a hawkish tone from Powell. The difference is that, today, strong jobs gains give Powell an extra incentive to push back against lower rates. The dollar recovery may run a little longer. Expect ECB hawkish comments as well. Source: Shutterstock   We have published our latest FX views and forecasts in the February edition of FX Talking: "Soft landing, hard landing, no landing?" USD: Powell's second hawkish attempt can support the dollar One week ago, we were observing how the dollar had regained the favour of the market as investors were positioning for a reiteration of the hawkish rhetoric by Fed Chair Powell after the FOMC meeting. As we now know, Powell actually conveyed the message of being relatively relaxed with loosening financial conditions last Wednesday. Today, however, we are looking at a market environment that highly resembles last week’s pre-FOMC one. Markets have been squaring short-dollar positions in the past two sessions as expectations have grown that Powell will deliver a hawkish speech at the Economic Club in Washington today. The key difference with last week is that Fed hawkish bets are now backed by a shockingly strong January jobs report (we recommend looking at our economics team’s note on the US labour market published yesterday). Let’s assume that a goldilocks scenario where inflation declines without seriously harming employment is becoming a more central scenario for the Fed. Well, even so, it seems a rather appropriate time for Powell to deliver one last hawkish “hurrah” today. In a way, many are seeing at least some degree of protest against the market reaction to last week’s FOMC as necessary. Yesterday, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic said that strong job gains could mean a higher peak rate. Indeed, it looks like markets have already positioned themselves for some pushback against easing rate expectations, but the surprise strength of the US jobs report gives Powell ample room to sound more hawkish than expected. Ultimately, the ongoing upward correction may run a little longer before losing steam. Incidentally, the overall environment is doing little to lure markets back into risk assets and away from the safe-haven dollar. US-China tensions are a source of concerns and likely weighing on global sentiment, and the eurozone cannot count on a supportive data flow to keep the growth re-rating process going. It looks like only another under-delivery (i.e. dovish surprise) by Powell can hurt the dollar today. Francesco Pesole EUR: ECB hawks to the rescue EUR/USD has pressed lower and may re-test the 1.0700 support today. There isn’t a whole lot driving the euro slump from the domestic side. In what is now becoming an increasingly common occurrence, ECB members appear to be rushing to the rescue in the week after the ECB meeting. The goal is simple: convince markets the hawkish bias is untouched, hoping to regain some of the market’s trust that President Lagarde seems to have lost. We’ll hear from three ECB hawks - Schnabel, Knot and Kazimir – and one “dove” – Villeroy – who recently aligned its view with the broader ECB message on further tightening. All in all, a slew of hawkish comments and rate protests should be on the cards today. This could give some modest support to the euro, but we believe this evening’s speech by Powell will have broader and longer-lasting implications for EUR/USD. A contraction to the 1.0600-1.0650 area by the end of this week is now looking increasingly likely. A pushback against the dovish market reaction is also what we have seen from BoE officials so far, with Caroline Mann (a hawk) firmly ruling out the peak rate has been reached. Today, we’ll hear from MPC members Ramsden, Pill and Cunliffe. With the rate protest coming from both the UK and the eurozone, EUR/GBP may hover around 0.8900-0.8950 for now.   Francesco Pesole AUD: RBA deliver hawkish hike The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25bp, in line with consensus, and signalled more rate increases are on their way. As we expected, sticky inflation has forced the RBA to sound more hawkish and to push rate expectations higher. Here is our economist’s review of the meeting. Markets are now pricing in a peak rate at 3.9% from around 3.6% before the announcement, but we think this is still underestimating how far the RBA will go. Our projections see rates hit 4.1% in the second quarter, and a potential first rate cut only in the fourth quarter. We continue to see AUD as the most attractive currency in G10 in the months ahead. Indeed, recent deterioration in US-China relations are a concern, but Australia still seems on track to easing trade tensions with Beijing, and the room for further hawkish repricing in RBA rate expectations means that 0.75 in AUD/USD could be reached during a soft-USD environment in 2Q22. Francesco Pesole CEE: The US dollar brought pain to the region The EUR/USD decline hit CEE FX hard yesterday. The US Dollar may cause pain to the region for a while longer and the local calendar has little to offer today. This morning's data showed Hungary's industrial production for December and the Czech Republic will release retail sales. Later today the Czech National Bank (CNB) will release FX reserve statistics including FX transactions for December. However, we don't suspect the CNB has intervened in this period. In our view, we may have last seen the central bank in the market in late September. However, we think the total intervention bill has reached CZK25.6bn since mid-May last year, roughly 16% of the CNB's FX reserves, and today's numbers won't change that. On the FX front, the key will be which direction EUR/USD goes and regional factors won't do much about it. After yesterday's 1.9% depreciation, the main focus today will be on Hungarian forint. Yesterday's move has certainly eased the pressure on heavy long positioning, but that may not mean the end of the upward journey. In our view, the Hungarian forint has gone too far and our model linked to EUR/USD indicates levels more around 392 EUR/HUF. However, the US dollar move will be decisive factor today. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The US dollar was mixed against its major trading partners early Tuesday - up against the euro and pound, down against the yen and the Canadian dollar. Today, Fed head Powell will speak. Powell will have to reconcile last week's decision by the Federal Open Market Committee to slow the pace of interest rate hikes with the exceptionally strong employment data for January released on Friday. In addition to Powell, Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision, Michael Barr, is set to speak at 14:00 ET. For the rest of the week there will be Fed officials. USD/JPY USD/JPY is rising after the US Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, and Chairman Powell said the central bank could deliver a few more rate hikes to bring inflation down to target. Additionally, reports that Bank of Japan Vice Governor Masayoshi Amamiya could replace the current Haruhiko Kuroda as central bank governor provided some support for USD/JPY as the BoJ's ultra-easy policy is expected to continue. USD/JPY is under some selling pressure on Tuesday and pulls some of the previous day's gains down to around 133.00, a monthly high. After the pair fell below 132.00, it is currently holding just above 132.0190. EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair extended its decline to a new three-week low below 1.0700 as demand for the US dollar prevails ahead of US Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell's speech. Investors await speeches from ECB officials and FOMC chairman Jerome Powell. During the European morning, Germany published data on industrial production in December, which fell by 3.1% over the month and by 3.9% a year earlier, much worse than expected. The United States will publish a balance of trade in goods and services in December, which is expected to show a deficit of USD 68.5 billion. Continuing its decline, EUR/USD dropped below 1.0700 to 1.0694 and looks set to drop further. Read next: The Court In Munich Decided In Favor Of BMW| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD Sterling hit a new monthly low against the US dollar on Tuesday as investors expect the Bank of England (BoE) to end and possibly reverse its monetary tightening cycle soon, while the US Federal Reserve may hold interest rates higher for longer. Investors await further comments from the Bank of England and preliminary UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. GBP/USD came under bearish pressure again and hit a month-low below 1.2000 on Tuesday. Despite a slight improvement in risk sentiment, the US dollar holds its ground and weighs heavily on the GBP/USD pair. AUD/USD The Australian dollar rose high after the RBA raised its cash rate target to 3.35% from 3.10%. Since the first increase in May 2022, a total of 325 basis points have been added. The Australian dollar gained above $0.69, bouncing back from monthly lows following the RBA decision. The RBA said in an accompanying statement: "The board expects further rate hikes will be needed in the coming months to ensure inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary." Following the RBA decision, the Aussie Pair holds above 0.69 but the pair has lost momentum and is closer to 0.6900 than close to 0.6930. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rose through the 103.60 high during the New York session on Tuesday before finding resistance. The index dropped over 100 points thereafter to register a low of around 102.63 and is now seen to be trading at about 102.90. The bulls are looking poised to push further toward 104.57 as projected on the 4H chart here in the near term. The US dollar index is producing a larger-degree corrective way potentially towards 106.50 and 109.40 levels. Within the above rally, the bulls are unfolding the first leg higher towards 104.50 and 105.35 at most. A break above 105.35 will confirm that the bulls are back in control and that there is further upside left. Intraday drops should stay above the 100.50 lows. The US dollar index bulls are potentially targeting the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 100.50 levels, which is passing through the 109.40-50 zone. A high probability remains for a potential trend reversal lower if prices reach there (109.40). Only a drop below 100.50 would nullify the above bullish scenario. Trading idea: A potential bullish move against 100.00 Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/311811

The dollar fell as Powell spoke. The dollar fell Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell refused to significantly tighten his tone on inflation in a closely watched speech, despite last week's strong employment data. USD/JPY The yen tumbled earlier this week as robust US jobs data suggested the Fed had more room for interest rate hikes. Recently, Japan's central bank countered speculation about another policy adjustment by keeping interest rates very low and leaving its yield control policy unchanged. As things stand, it seems that the market is having a hard time assessing the way forward as strong US data brings constant warnings of more hikes, which usually support USD valuations. At the same time, Japan is considering nominations for the top BoJ position for April, as the likelihood of policy normalization at the ultra-dovish Bank of Japan by the new incumbent cannot be ruled out. In the morning, the USD/JPY pair started rising towards 131.30. USD/JPY traded above 131.00 for the following hours of trading but fell below in the European session and is now trading at 130.6910. EUR/USD EUR/USD rebounded towards 1.0750 on Wednesday after falling below 1.0700 late Tuesday but struggled to gain further momentum. In the absence of high-impact data releases, investors will pay close attention to comments from Fed officials. Currently, the EUR/USD pair has fallen below this level, but slightly to the level of 1.0740. On Tuesday, mixed comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials made it difficult for the euro to gain an advantage over its rivals. ECB politician Francois Villeroy de Galhau said they are not very far from the peak of inflation. On a hawkish note, policymaker Joachim Nagel reiterated that further significant interest rate hikes would be needed, adding that ECB rates were not restrictive yet. Finally, Isabel Schnabel, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, took a neutral tone. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said US interest rates may need to be raised while the process of "disinflation" appears to be underway. Read next: Douyin Wants To Enter The Food Delivery Industry| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD At the end of Tuesday, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell also confirmed good labor market data and reiterated that they will probably have to make further rate hikes. On an optimistic note, Powell said he expected 2023 to be "a year of significant decline in inflation." This remark made it harder for the US Dollar Index to maintain its upward momentum and helped GBP/USD recover some of its losses this week. From the UK's perspective, the strike action remains a concern for the government and civil servants are planning to carry out another strike on March 15. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will present his fiscal plan on the same day and will be under additional pressure to possibly reassess inquiries about the pay settlement. Overall, it is bearish for the pound as strike action disrupts the UK economy and challenges UK leadership. GBP/USD pair gained momentum and climbed to around 1.2100 on Wednesday. Currently, the GBP/USD pair is trading above 1.2090$. AUD/USD The Aussie pair is defending support at 0.6950 with the US Dollar generally subdued so far. The Aussie pair surged above 0.6990 today but failed to maintain momentum and is currently trading above 0.6980. Yesterday the RBA raised rates by 25 bp. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index has rallied through 103.00 after finding support around 102.60 on Wednesday. The index is seen to be trading close to 103.00 at this time in writing as the bulls prepare to push through 104.50-60 and up to 105.35. They might have some more steam left to target the initial resistance at 105.35 before pulling back. Earlier, the US dollar index terminated its larger-degree decline at 100.50 before finding support again. Prices have rallied through 103.60 since then, indicating that a similar-degree corrective rally is underway. The initial target is seen towards 105.35, followed by 109.50 to complete the correction. The bears might be looking to come back in control thereafter (109.50). The US dollar index is looking close to completing its initial rally of a much deeper correction around 105.00 in the near term. We can expect the price to pull back lower thereafter before it produces its final thrust rally towards 109.50 going forward. Also, note that 109.50 is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 100.50 levels respectively. Trading idea: Potential rally against 100.00 Good luck!     Relevance up to 05:00 UTC+1 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/311995

The US dollar hovered near the middle of recent ranges compared to majors on Thursday as investors scrutinized comments from many Federal Reserve officials. Overnight, four Fed speakers continue to send their hawkish message to the market. The consistent message is that further interest rate hikes are announced and that the interest rate will have to stay high for a long time. The employment data initially raised expectations that the Fed might return to aggressive monetary policy, but Powell did not lean in that direction in his speech. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the consumer price inflation data that comes out on Tuesday for additional guidance on the policy outlook. USD/JPY During the morning trading hours, USD/JPY held above 131.40 but failed to sustain momentum. USD/JPY has returned to levels below 131.00. EUR/USD EUR/USD maintained its upward momentum and extended its daily gain towards 1.0800 on Thursday. Earlier in the day, data from Germany revealed that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell to 9.2% on an annualized basis in January from 9.6% in December. This reading was much lower than market expectations of 10%, but the negative impact of these data on the euro remained short-lived. With the major European stock indices opening much higher on Thursday, the EUR/USD rate began to rise. At the time of publication, the German DAX 30 and Euro Stoxx 50 indices were up over 1% during the day. Read next: Credit Suisse Reported Its Biggest Annual Loss Since The 2008, Ukrainian President Is Asking For Help And More Weapons In Brussels| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The Bank of England is concerned that UK inflation will remain stubbornly high. This suggests that the BoE has growing uncertainty about whether further policy tightening is warranted and that the current cycle of rate hikes may be coming to an end. The BoE has hiked interest rates 10 times since December 2021, the last being a week ago, as it battles to bring down sky-high inflation without causing a deep recession. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is joined today by MPC members Huw Pill, Professor Silvana Tenreyro and Professor Jonathan Haskel in the Treasury Committee (TSC). So far, they have been asked whether the central bank is lagging behind in the fight against inflation. So far, the statements of BoE representatives suggest that the MPC is still worried about persistently high inflation and that the British economy may face a prolonged period of weakness. GBP/USD continued to move higher and hit a new six-day high above 1.2150 on Thursday. Cautious comments from BOE policymakers on the outlook for inflation and a risk-prone market environment help the pair keep their balance. On Friday, the UK's Office for National Statistics will publish estimate GDP figures for December 2022. AUD/USD The risk-sensitive Australian dollar gained against gains from US equity futures and the more hawkish Reserve Bank. AUD/USD rebounded strongly from 0.6920 in the Asian session. The New Zealand dollar also appreciated. Australians were rather dissatisfied after the last RBA meeting, which may point to further rate hikes in the future due to inflationary pressure. A slightly weaker dollar this morning is supporting the Australian bulls, including the rise of some key Australian commodities. The Australian pair is currently trading close to the $0.7000 level. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

During the American session, the University of Michigan will publish a preliminary consumer sentiment survey for February. The main consumer confidence index is expected to rise to 65 from 64.9 in January. Market participants will keep a close eye on the component of the survey on inflation expectations for the next year, which fell to 4% in January from 4.4% in December. An unexpected increase in this reading could strengthen the US dollar. USD/JPY The yen strengthened on Friday before recovering slightly after Kazuo Ueda, who was reportedly tapped as the next governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), said the central bank's monetary policy was the right one. The government is also nominating Ryozo Himino, the former head of Japan's banking regulator, and BOJ director Shinichi Uchida as deputy governors, the Nikkei said. BOJ deputy governor Masayoshi Amamiya was the frontrunner for the role of governor, but the Nikkei reported that he turned down the job. The government is expected to present candidates to parliament on February 14. The BOJ shocked markets in December when it raised the 10-year yield cap to 0.5% from 0.25%, doubling the allowable range above or below zero. USD/JPY managed to rebound towards 131.00 after falling below 130.00 earlier in the day. EUR/USD EUR/USD picked up momentum and climbed to around 1.0800 at the end of Thursday, but lost much of its daily gains and closed below 1.0750. EUR/USD came under slight downward pressure and fell towards 1.0700 during Friday's European session. The US dollar gained strength thanks to rising US Treasury yields. The euro hit a 10-month high against the dollar earlier this month. The prospect of a milder recession thanks to falling energy prices and plentiful natural gas supplies, coupled with China's exit from three years of severe COVID-related restrictions, has generally ignited investors' appetite for European assets. However, this enthusiasm has made the euro look vulnerable, at least in the short term. The Euro is set for a second consecutive week of declines and at the time of writing EUR/USD is trading below 1.07 at 1.6998. Read next: Tesla Will Increase Output For 2023, Deliveroo Are Planning To Cut Jobs| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The pound weakened on Friday after data showed the UK economy stalled in the final three months of 2022, avoiding a technical recession but recording zero growth. The UK Office for National Statistics said on Friday that the UK economy contracted by 0.5% on a monthly basis in December and came to a standstill in the fourth quarter. On the positive side, industrial production rose 0.3% in December, beating market expectations for a 0.2% decline. The Bank of England forecast last week that the UK would enter a shallow but lengthy recession starting in the first quarter of this year and lasting five quarters. Moreover, Money Markets shows that investors believe that UK interest rates will peak below 4.40% by late summer, from the current 4%. UK consumer inflation data will be released next week and may have a bigger impact on these expectations. The GBP/USD pair previously surged to levels above 1.2130 but lost momentum and is now trading just above 1.2100 and below 1.2110. AUD/USD The Australian dollar held below $0.695, pressured by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials who reiterated their commitment to bring down inflation with more rate increases. The Australian Dollar remains supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will tighten policy further. The RBA’s latest monetary policy statement showed that the central bank revised its inflation forecasts higher for this year, saying price pressures were spreading into services and wages. AUD/USD is headed towards 0.6900 amid disappointing Chinese CPI and PPI data. The Australian pair is not benefiting from the RBA's hawkish monetary policy statement, currently the Aussie pair holds above 0.6920. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

The dollar gained on Friday as investors grew concerned about a U.S. inflation report next week that could show a number that is higher than markets forecast amid data showing expectations for a continued rise in prices over the next year. As the data continued to show positive U.S. momentum, the dollar was on pace for its second weekly rise against a basket of six currencies, a run it has not seen since October. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has cited the Michigan survey's inflation outlook as one of the indicators the U.S. central bank tracks. USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair started the week trading at 132.12 and, despite the correction, was moving towards 132.50. Above this level on the first day of trading (Monday) it reached a weekly high of 132.88. In the following days, the USD/JPY pair fell below 132.00 until reaching the level of 130.50. The pair then traded in a range of 130.00-131.50 until USD/JPY dropped to 129.9550, which is the pair's weekly low. The pair closed between the highest and lowest levels, i.e. above 131.00, 131.38 to be exact. The yen rose on Friday across the board with Kazuo Ueda reportedly set to become the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor but pared gains after he said the central bank's monetary policy was appropriate. The Japanese unit was on track for its first weekly gain versus the dollar after posting losses for three straight weeks. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the government is planning to present the BOJ governor nominee to parliament on Tuesday, but did not answer a question on whether Ueda would be put forward. Read next: Tesla Will Increase Output For 2023, Deliveroo Are Planning To Cut Jobs| FXMAG.COM EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair started the week trading close to $1.08 at 1.0792. In the following hours, the EUR/USD pair reached a weekly high of 1.0804 and then began to fall towards 1.07. On Tuesday, EUR/USD fell below 1.07, then rose again on Wednesday, breaking above 1.0750 on Thursday. The pair failed to maintain this momentum and on the final day of trading fell to a weekly low of 1.0670. After that, EUR/USD rose slightly and closed the week just above the low of 1.0681. GBP/USD The Cable pair started trading at 1.2050. And for the next two days she lingered in this area. On Wednesday, GBP/USD started an upward move towards 1.21. On Thursday, GBP/USD traded close to 1.22 at 1.2191 which is the weekly high of GBP/USD, but fell back on Friday to close the week at 1.2058. The week's low was at 1.1963 for the GBP/USD pair. AUD/USD The Aussie Pair started trading at 0.6910 and fell on Monday to a weekly low of 0.6859. In the following days, the pair stayed above 0.69. On Thursday, AUD/USD broke above 0.70 and hit a weekly high of 0.7011, similarly to EUR and GBP, the Australian pair failed to maintain momentum and dropped Friday to end the week at 0.6921. The Australian and New Zealand dollars found support on Friday as markets continued to ramp up expectations for how high local interest rates might rise, sending bond yields to one-month peaks. Having hiked rates by a quarter point to a decade-high of 3.35% on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said domestic price pressures were building and spreading into services and wages, so it was unclear how high rates might have to go. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

The dollar approached a five-week high against its major peers on Monday, and investors increased their bets on the Federal Reserve staying on tight monetary policy longer. The most important event this week will be US consumer prices data released on Tuesday, which will strengthen expectations regarding Fed policy. Strong CPI data in the US would increase expectations for monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, which would probably push the dollar up. USD/JPY USD/JPY started the new week at the level of 131.3470, and in the following hours it rose and broke through the level of 132.00. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading above 132.50. The asset is expected to refresh a four-day high above 132.00 as investors are extremely risk-averse ahead of the United States inflation report. In January, Japanese investors became net buyers of foreign bonds for the first time in five months as US bond yields fell in a sign that slowing inflation would prompt major central banks to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Japanese investors bought foreign bonds net worth 1.56 trillion yen ($11.79 billion) in January, according to data from Japan's Ministry of Finance, marking their biggest buying frenzy since September 2021. Read next: Poland’s President Andrzej Duda Said The Decision To Send Fighter Jets To Ukraine Was “Not Easy To Take”| FXMAG.COM EUR/USD On Friday, a preliminary consumer sentiment survey by the University of Michigan in February showed that annual expected inflation rose to 4.2% from 3.9% in February. The reading helped the US dollar stay strong against its rivals ahead of the weekend and forced EUR/USD to end the week in the red. Early Monday, the US Dollar Index holds strong and limits EUR/USD's gains. The EUR/USD pair started trading at 1.0684 this week. In the following hours, EUR/USD fell towards 1.0660 but rebounded above 1.0680. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0675. The European Commission raised the EU growth forecast for 2023. The European Commission noted that the EU economy entered 2023 in a better position than predicted in the autumn and raised its growth forecasts for this year to 0.9% in the euro area. The Eurozone looks set to avoid a technical recession, thanks in large part to falling gas prices and a solid labor market. The Commission has also lowered its inflation expectations, with headline inflation now expected to fall to 5.6% in 2023. GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair started the week at 1.2050. Similar to the Euro pair, the GBP/USD pair fell towards 1.2035 during the morning trading hours before rising above 1.2060 again. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2056. The market awaits this week's data, which could show that unemployment in the UK remained flat in December and weekly earnings rose less than in November. The British economy, similarly to the US, will publish inflation reports this week. UK is expecting inflation to fall. UK retail sales figures for January are expected to show that while consumers continue to spend less, the pace of decline in sales may have slowed in the new year. AUD/USD Markets expects RBA Chairman Philip Lowe to reinforce the bank's hawkish stance at parliamentary hearings this week. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe will testify before the Senate this week. Lowe will appear before the Senate Appraisals Committee on Wednesday, and then on Friday will give his semi-annual testimony to the House Economics Committee. In between these public appearances will be squeezed in employment data on Thursday. The central bank surprised markets last week by signaling at least two more rate hikes after raising the cash rate to a decade high of 3.35%. This stifled any talk of a break and led the markets to price in a final rate of 4.2% The AUD/USD Pair started the week close to 0.6900, where it fell below this level in the following hours. The Australian pair managed to break above 0.6915 and is currently trading above 0.6930. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index turned lower from a 103.50 high on Monday and printed a 102.78 low early on Tuesday. The index is seen to be trading close to 102.80 at this point in writing as the bulls might be preparing to come back in control. The potential near-term target is seen towards 104.00 and 104.75 as marked on the 4H chart here (Red). The US dollar index has either completed its first wave between 100.50 and 103.60 or could be near terminating after a push higher one last time through 104.00-75. Near-term resistance is seen at 105.35 as displayed on the chart here and could be taken out as the bulls prepare to push through the lower-degree rally from current levels around 102.80. The trading instrument is unfolding a larger-degree corrective rally towards 106.50 and up to 109.50 as discussed earlier. The first wave is underway from 100.50 and could terminate close to 105.35. We can expect the second wave to dip lower again before the final rally towards 109.50 could resume. Trading idea: Potential rally against 100.00 Good luck!     Relevance up to 05:00 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/312544

Market bulls have endless optimism this year, it is amazing. Whether it is funded or not, is yet to be seen. US CPI Inflation could help answer that question today. A few indicators point at a certain uptick in inflation in January figures, and the expectation is that the US headline CPI may have slowed to 6.2% in January, from 6.5% printed a month earlier, on a yearly basis. A sufficiently soft, or ideally a softer-than-expected CPI read today should give an additional boost to the equity bulls while a stronger inflation read could easily bring the Fed hawks back to the marketplace and send equities tumbling. Forex In the FX, the US dollar has seen a crowd of sellers above the 50-DMA. A strong inflation data could finally send the dollar index sustainably above its 50-DMA, while a soft reading will be a good reason to sell the rebound. The EURUSD continues its own struggle around the 50-DMA. In Japan, Kazuo Ueda has been nominated as the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor. There are rumours that the new BoJ leader could scrap the YCC policy. The yen was better bid in Tokyo, but the US CPI data is probably what will determine the short-term direction both in EURUSD and the USDJPY. CPI What everyone wants to see is a soft US CPI figure, a softer US dollar, strong equities, improved bonds, and stronger other currencies. What everyone fears however is a figure that’s not convincingly softer. The only sure thing is, the CPI days are known for their high intraday volatility. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 Mixed feelings about the market 3:51 All eyes are on the US CPI today! 7:13 FX update 8:39 Balloon update Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #USD #inflation #data #Fed #expectations #EUR #JPY #XAU #US #China #spy #balloon #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH      

Today's US CPI report looks like a rather binary event for markets. With the deflationary story having come under increased scrutiny, we suspect that a consensus 0.4% MoM read in core inflation may be enough to weigh on risk assets and support the dollar. We still see room for USD outperformance in the near term. In the UK, wage data endorsed a BoE march hike US consumer spending slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022 USD: A consensus reading may be enough to support the dollar We are a bit surprised to see markets have started the week with some (cautious) optimism despite the big risk event represented by today’s US inflation report. A rise in global equities meant the dollar is trading weaker across the board with the exception of the yen, which continues to see elevated volatility as markets struggle to assess the implications of the Bank of Japan appointing – now officially – Kazuo Ueda as next governor. We expect JPY volatility to stay high as Ueda may refrain from offering clear direction on any policy shift before taking the role in April. For now, there are no indications he will favour an abrupt end to the BoJ’s ultra-dovish policy stance. Back to the US, January’s inflation report will be an important litmus test for the disinflation story that has driven the slowdown in Federal Reserve tightening. The market's reaction will likely be driven once again by the month-on-month figure, which our economist expects to match consensus expectations at 0.5% for the headline rate and 0.4% for core inflation. This should translate into year-on-year reads of around 6.2% and 5.5%, respectively. Such a consensus read may be enough to weigh on risk assets and support the dollar, as it should allow markets to fully price in 50bp of additional tightening by the Fed and offer the chance to scale back rate cut expectations (around 50bp priced in for 2H23). Given that core inflation in December came in at 0.3%, a 0.2% print (or below) today should be enough to trigger a dollar correction, and a 0.5% (or above) could trigger a dollar rally. We’ll be paying close attention to the details of today’s releases. Auto sales and shelter are two components that may contribute to a higher reading. The former may boost the CPI number on the back of a reported jump in auto auction prices by 2.5%: this may translate into 0.15pp added to MoM core CPI, given the high weighting of this component on the reference basket. Shelter accounts for approximately a third of the inflation basket and may prove sticky given the lagged effect on data of contracting house prices and new rental agreements. We still think these two components will drive a big chunk of the deflationary effect from the second quarter, but for now may work against any dovish narrative. We see the balance of risks as tilted to the upside for the dollar and to the downside for pro-cyclical currencies. A return to the 2023 highs in DXY (at 105.00) is still a tangible possibility in the near term, even though we continue to favour USD underperformance in the remainder of this year. Francesco Pesole EUR: No other drivers than US CPI EUR/USD should be moved almost solely by the US inflation report today, as the preliminary (i.e. second) release of eurozone growth numbers looks unlikely to impact markets and there is only one scheduled European Central Bank speaker (Gabriel Makhlouf). As discussed in recent notes, we expect to see a rather contained impact from additional ECB commentaries (even from those by Christine Lagarde tomorrow) from now on, as markets have probably absorbed in full the pushback against the dovish reaction to the February ECB press conference and are now switching their focus to key data releases. In line with our dollar view ahead of today’s US CPI, EUR/USD may slip back to 1.0650/1.0700 should core inflation come in at 0.4% or 0.5% MoM. Anything above that would likely trigger a larger contraction and 1.0600 should be tested. We continue to see downside risks for EUR/USD in the very near term as US data may endorse further Fed hikes and the euro lacks any solid domestic support. Francesco Pesole GBP: Sticky wages cement BoE March hike expectations Wage data released this morning in the UK came in higher than expected, lifting the pound. The Bank of England’s preferred measure of wage growth, the 3-month/3-month annualised change has now been consistently above 7% for a few months, and there is very little evidence of that wage slowdown suggested by some surveys. Tomorrow’s CPI release will be another key event for the pound, but we think that given the increased focus of the Bank of England on wage dynamics, today’s data strongly endorses a March 25bp rate hike (which is our base case). EUR/GBP may well break below 0.8800 this week, while GBP/USD could fall back below 1.2100 after the US CPI print. Francesco Pesole CEE: Break-up within the region Before we see any key releases on a global level, the CEE region also has something to say today. We will see GDP numbers across the region for the fourth quarter and an inflation number for January in Romania. The main focus will of course be on the confirmation of the technical recession in Hungary but also on the consumer side of GDP across the region given that January inflation has already surprised to the upside in Hungary and the Czech Republic. In the FX market, the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint secured the main attention at the start of the week. The zloty reached its weakest levels since mid-October last year weighed down by negative EU money prospects and Thursday's looming European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling in the FX mortgage case. For now, we have not heard from officials how long it will take for the Constitutional Court to review the legislation after President Duda said he would not sign the bill and sent it instead to the court for review. However, the likelihood is growing that Poland will not get EU money before the October general elections. Moreover, there is a risk that Thursday's ECJ ruling will impose additional costs on the banking sector. Overall, it will thus be difficult for the Polish zloty to resist further losses in the days ahead. For now, we expect the zloty to test 4.80 EUR/PLN. On the other hand, the Hungarian forint has reached its strongest levels since last May. Drivers are the same as in recent weeks in our view - falling gas prices and by far the highest carry in the region. In particular, after Friday's upside inflation surprise, the short end of the IRS curve is up roughly 50-60bps, which has brought the interest rate differential back to levels seen at the start of the year and erased bets on an early central bank rate cut. Although in our view, heavy long positioning on HUF is still the main risk and profit-taking cannot be ruled out, we remain bullish on the forint. We expect further gains to be slower, however, the mentioned conditions should persist at least until the March National Bank of Hungary meeting. Thus, we see a good chance for the forint to beat our forecast of 385 EUR/HUF at the end of the quarter. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The dollar fell on Tuesday in anticipation of the eagerly awaited inflation report. Markets are looking at US consumer inflation data for further clues to the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Investors expect the headline annual CPI to fall to 6.2% from 6.5% in December and the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to fall to 5.5% from 5.7%. USD/JPY The Yen pair initially cheered the pullback in the Treasury bond yields before the Japanese government’s announcements of Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials triggered hawkish concerns and weighed on the prices. Also favoring the USD/JPY bears is the broad US Dollar pullback as traders brace for a positive surprise from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. Japan’s preliminary readings of the fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data printed mixed readings. Following that, the official nomination of Kazuo Ueda as the BoJ leader weighed on the USD/JPY prices. Fresh fears of the US-China tension over the balloon shooting also challenge the sentiment and put a floor under the USD/JPY price. The USD/JPY pair started trading above 132.30 today, but then fell towards 131.90. The yen pair managed to bounce back and traded close to 132.30 again. USD/JPY is currently trading above 132.20. EUR/USD The European Commission's winter economic forecast published yesterday says that the EU economy is geared to avoid recession. The EUR/USD pair held a narrow range of 1.0730-1.0745 in morning trading, but surged up in the European session. The euro maintained its earlier gains against the slightly weaker US dollar, with EUR/USD changing hands around 1.0760. The latest US inflation report due to be released will be another driver of action. Read next: Brazil’s Bank Allows To Pay Taxes Using Cryopto, Ford Will Cut Jobs In Europe| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The UK unemployment rate remained unchanged for the 3 months to December 2022, as expected. The number of people out of work for up to 6 months has increased, mainly among people aged 16 to 24. The number of people working in the UK increased by 74,000. in the three months to December, well above market forecasts for an increase of 40,000. and after an increase of 27,000 in last month. Meanwhile, from November 2022 to January 2023, the number of vacancies fell by 76,000. up to 1,134,000 UK wages rose 5.9% in December 2022 compared to the same month last year, beating estimates and down 6.4% from the previous print. What will be of concern, however, is the increase in average earnings without bonuses, which rose to 6.7%, beating the 6.5% forecast. The data compares with market forecasts of growth of 6.2% and 6.5%, respectively. In real terms, adjusted for inflation, the increase in total and regular wages fell by 3.1% in the year from October to December 2022 for total wages and by 2.5% for regular salaries. GBP/USD has gathered bullish momentum and climbed toward 1.2200 in the European trading hours. AUD/USD The Australian and New Zealand dollars tried to hold their gains on Tuesday after a rebound on Wall Street boosted global risk sentiment and Australian data underlined the case for further domestic interest rate hikes. Currently, the price of the Australian pair is around 0.6970. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

On the daily chart of the USD Dollar Index, it can be seen that there was a trendline break (TLB) condition on the CCI (14) indicator which was previously in a bear condition where the Chop Zone (CZ) indicator (levels 100 & -100) was red but after that TLB and CCI move above level 0, so CZ changes color to cyan blue and now the CCI histogram (14) has turned green, followed by Sidewinder color (levels 200 & -200) changes color to yellow (volatile/Trending) and green (very volatile / trending) so that in the future USDX has the potential to be Bullish appreciated going up to the 103.96 level as the first target and the 105.63 level as the second target but before that it seems that USDX will be corrected down to test the 102.19 level and as long as this level is strong enough to hold back the pace correction and does not exceed the level of 100.82, USDX has the potential to strengthen again where this can be seen at CCI 914) is trying to form Zero Line Reject (ZLR) pattern.   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-02-18 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/119499

US CPI numbers were in line with consensus yesterday and offered more room for markets to raise Fed rate expectations. This hasn’t translated into a dollar rally, but we could still see at least some support coming the greenback’s way as US data for January should prove strong. Polish inflation should confirm a different inflation story in the CEE region USD: Still eyes on data There were no fireworks in the FX market yesterday as January’s CPI figures matched expectations. Evidence of a slowdown in the disinflation process is giving an opportunity to the Federal Reserve and markets to feel more comfortable about more tightening beyond March. Fed Funds futures are now pricing in 68bp of extra hikes, having added around 7bp in price after the inflation release. This has, however, failed to translate into a materially stronger dollar for now, which is largely a consequence of some resilience in global risk sentiment despite the reinforcing of hawkish Fed bets. We think data will remain the key driver for the dollar and the global risk environment, as the depth of the US economic slowdown is still a key driver of rate expectations, especially when it comes to the timing, size and pace of Fed easing in the medium term. We think that January’s US data may come in rather strong throughout on the back of weather-related factors and this may keep short-term US rates and the dollar supported in the near term. Today, we’ll keep a close eye on retail sales data, industrial production and empire manufacturing, which should all improve.  Francesco Pesole EUR: Lagarde's speech may be a non-event EUR/USD remains primarily a dollar story, and despite having survived the US CPI risk event, we continue to see some downside risks in the near term on the back of raising bets on Fed tightening and a lack of drivers from the euro side. In this sense, we don’t think that today’s speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will drive major market moves. After her attempts and those (more successful) of her governing council colleagues to keep rate expectations high in the eurozone, we don’t see how there is much she could add to the central bank’s rhetoric at this stage. The release of eurozone-aggregate industrial production data for December should not have any material market impact.  We see room for EUR/USD to slip back to 1.0650/1.0700 by the end of this week on the back of a strengthening dollar.  Francesco Pesole GBP: Bearish story is running out of steam This morning's UK inflation data missed estimates (5.8% vs est. 6.2% year-on-year). Looking at the details, this is also true of 'core services', the index we know the Bank of England is paying closest attention to because it includes the slowest-moving/most persistent components of the inflation basket. It seems like hospitality is doing some of the work here. A word of caution - by definition, the BoE's insistence on looking at 'inflation persistence' means it's not looking at single-month changes in inflation. But this nevertheless goes firmly in the opposite direction of what the central bank has forecast. We would still expect a 25bp hike in March, but if this trend continues then it would heavily lean towards a pause in May. The EUR/GBP fall could extend and force a break below 0.8800, but we think the bearish story may soon run out of steam and we favour a rebound to 0.9000 over the course of 2023. Francesco Pesole PLN: Poland joining the inflation club As usual this week, Poland will be in the spotlight today again. We expect January inflation to jump from 16.6% to 18.1% year-on-year, above market expectations. Last Friday, we saw numbers from Hungary and the Czech Republic surprise to the upside by 50bp and 40bp, respectively, and we should see a similar picture today in Poland. The market has already partially corrected expectations for the first rate cut by the National Bank of Poland in recent days, but we believe there is still room for market rates to go up at the short end of the curve. And today's inflation should provide that impetus. Thus, a further improvement in the rate differential could at least stop the Polish zloty from weakening for a while. However, the Polish story does not end today. On Thursday, we will see the European Court of Justice's decision on the FX mortgage case and on Friday, S&P's rating review will be published. The ECJ decision is probably the main reason why the zloty has been underperforming the region recently. While we do not expect the sovereign rating to be downgraded, after the Hungarian experience, the market may wonder whether the delay in accessing EU money will be a problem for rating agencies in the case of Poland as well. Thus, today the zloty could look towards 4.74 EUR/PLN. However, for the rest of the week we remain bearish and rather expect weaker values near 4.80 EUR/PLN. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more  

Looking at the market pricing, you could’ve hardly guessed, but yesterday’s US inflation report was not brilliant. US stocks But US stocks gave a mixed reaction. Why?! Why did people buy equities on strong inflation data yesterday, is the main topic of today’s Market Talk.Still, treasury markets seemed more down to earth, as the US 2-year yield ticked to the highest levels since last November, activity on Fed funds futures gave a little more than 12% probability for a 50bp hike at the next FOMC meeting, versus around 9% at the start of the week. USD index But the dollar index remained stuck below its 50-DMA. Gold Gold extended losses to $1843 on the back of stronger yields and firmer US dollar. EUR/USD The EURUSD found support above the 50-DMA, which stands around the 1.0715 mark. USD/JPY The dollar-yen cleared resistance near its own 50-DMA level, but the risks are still tilted to the downside in USDJPY. Read next: Airbnb Posted A Profit Of $1.9. Billion, Air India And Largest Commercial Aircraft Deal In Aviation History| FXMAG.COM UK CPI and Crude Oil In the UK, inflation in January still eased more than expected to 10.1%. Crude oil remains offered into the 100-DMA, on a massive 10 mio barrel build in US oil inventories last week, while Biden Administration announced there would be further releases from the strategic petroleum reserves of 26 million barrels earlier this week.  Warren Buffett In individual stocks, Warren Buffett sold 86% stake in TSM. Shares plunged more than 4% in Taipei. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 US inflation eased less than expected in January 2:55 But who cares? 5:35 FX & yields update 7:05 UK inflation must please BoE, but not sterling 7:36 Crude oil down on massive US inventory build 8:27 Buffett sells TSM. Ouch. Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #USD #GBP #inflation #data #Fed #BoE #BoJ #expectations #EUR #JPY #XAU #US #crude #oil #F13 #TSM #Ford #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The dollar rose on Wednesday amid stubbornly high US inflation data and sharp interest rate talks from Federal Reserve officials. Year on year prices increased (CPI) by 6.4%. This is down from 6.5% in December, but above economists' expectations of 6.2%. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.4% as expected. More importantly, the underlying details of the report revealed that the core services' inflation, which the Fed pays close attention to, stood at 7.2% on a yearly basis. These figures showed markets that the disinflation has not picked up any steam in January and reminded that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to entertain the idea of a policy pivot. USD/JPY Kazuo Ueda, the Japanese government's nominee to be the next governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), will inherit a difficult set of problems when he takes over from incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda on April 8. Japanese inflation y/y reached 4% in December, the highest level since January 1991. The new central banker will have to decide when and by how much the BoJ needs to start reducing its very loose monetary policy in order to keep inflation in check while allowing enough monetary slack to allow for economic growth. As other countries have recently learned, once inflation takes root, it becomes increasingly difficult to bring it down. The yen pair after yesterday closed trading near 133.00 today in the first hours of trading USD/JPY started a decline towards 132.55. The drop in the first hours of trading was not sustained and the pair rose above 133.00. At the time of writing, the yen pair is trading at 133.31. EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair started the day trading above 1.0740 but fell towards 1.0710 in the following hours. EUR/USD gained momentum in the European session and traded near 1.0730 but lost momentum and is now trading around 1.0715. According to ING, remarks by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde later probably won't move the euro materially. EUR/USD pair should remain driven by dollar moves and faces near-term "downside risks" as the market raised its U.S. interest rate expectations following Tuesday's higher-than-expected inflation data. Read next: In The United States The Demand For Warehouse Space Is Still Growing| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The British pound fell this morning after the UK CPI. The report showed weaker than expected inflation data, both y/y and m/m, concerning headline and core inflation, respectively. The UK's Office for National Statistics reported on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index declined 0.6% on a monthly basis in January, causing the annual rate to retreat to 10.1% from 10.5%. The Core CPI also edged lower to 5.8% from 6.3% on a yearly basis, coming in lower than the market expectation of 6.2%. Although it's too early to say how these figures could influence the Bank of England's (BoE) policy outlook, the reaction suggests that markets have scaled back hawkish BoE bets. The Cable pair started trading at a high of 1.2175 on Wednesday, but in the following hours it started to fall initially to 1.2150 and then to 1.2100. Currently, GBP/USD is below 1.2100, at 1.2076. AUD/USD The Aussie pair is just below 0.6900. The AUD/USD pair is under strong selling pressure on Wednesday and is pulling further back from its over-week high. The RBA's latest monetary policy statement showed the central bank revised its inflation forecast for this year higher, saying price pressures were spreading to services and wages. The communiqué suggests two more interest rate hikes in the coming months and possibly a third if inflation remains high. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

The dollar is holding onto recent gains. The continuation of better US activity data this quarter provides leeway for the Fed to remain hawkish and is keeping short-dated US yields firm. It is hard to see this changing in the short term. The data calendar is quiet today, but we have several Fed and ECB speakers. Look out for more on Polish FX mortgage news today USD: A delicate balance Another day and another piece of positive US activity data. Yesterday saw a strong January retail sales release. Though boosted by warmer weather, the data still positively contributes to the first quarter activity story where the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow measure for the first quarter has been revised up to 2.4% from 2.2%. 'Wot recession?' some might ask. The data provides ammunition for the Fed to remain in hawkish mode and for the market to continue to price two to three more 25bp Fed rate hikes by the summer. February's hawkish re-assessment of Fed policy has lifted short-dated US yields by 50bp over the last two weeks and reinserted a little volatility back into the interest rate and FX space. The 2-10 year US Treasury curve remains as inverted as at any point in this cycle - providing the dollar with support. Arguably the dollar could/should have traded even stronger given the backup in US rates. The reason it has not traded stronger is probably down to the risk environment. Equity markets are holding onto early-year gains and recent buy-side investor surveys show that cash levels - though dipping - are still far from levels to suggest the buy-side is fully invested in this equity rally. Indeed, surveys still point to underweight positioning in equity markets.   We suspect this delicate balance between a hawkish Fed and a buy-side still looking to add to risk assets will leave the dollar range-bound for the rest of this quarter. 1.05-1.10 could be the broad range in EUR/USD and something like 128-136 for USD/JPY - the latter also having to deal with a new Bank of Japan governor. For today, the US focus will be on the January PPI numbers (core expected to decelerate to 4.0 from 4.6% year-on-year), initial claims and the Philly Fed business outlook. We will also hear from the Fed hawks Loretta Mester (1445 CET) and James Bullard (1830). DXY should trade within a narrow 103.50-104.00 range. Chris Turner EUR: 1.08 remains our 1Q forecast It looks like EUR/USD is settling into a broad 1.05-1.10 trading range this quarter - leaving us comfortable with the EUR/USD profile we outlined in our latest FX talking publication: 'Soft landing, hard landing, no landing?'. That profile saw EUR/USD ending the first quarter near 1.08 before pushing decisively above 1.10 in the second as the US disinflation story accelerated at a time when China was reopening. The European Central Bank hiking a further 75bp - taking the deposit rate to 3.25% in May - certainly helps too, although the recent repricing in the Federal Reserve cycle is somewhat muting this story. There is not much in the way of eurozone data today and perhaps the most interesting ECB speaker will be Chief Economist, Philip Lane. A 1600CET he delivers the Dow Lecture at the NIESR in London - the lecture entitled: 'The Euro Area Hiking Cycle: An Interim Assessment'. Presumably, he will not want to push back too much against the 115bp of tightening priced by the markets this summer - even though we think it will be closer to 75bp.  EUR/USD is bouncing off the recent 1.0650/0660 lows helped by a slightly positive risk environment coming out of Asia. We would expect it to continue trading well within the confines of a 1.0650-1.0750 range today. Chris Turner GBP: Gains proving hard work Sterling continues to show high sensitivity to monetary policy. This week's slightly softer-than-expected wage and core CPI data have seen sterling hand back a budding rally. We suspect this will be the story for most of this year, where we see EUR/GBP trading in the 0.89/90 area. GBP/USD may, however, get a lift in the second quarter if we are right with our dollar call. The UK data calendar is quieter today ahead of tomorrow's release of January retail sales. Bank of England Chief Economist, Huw Pill, speaks at 1800CET, where he delivers a fireside chat on monetary policy. He's been seen as a little more hawkish recently and may choose to maintain that position until the BoE has finished its tightening cycle. We look for one last 25bp hike at the 23 March meeting - taking Bank Rate to 4.25% - where it will be left until summer 2024.   For today, cable should continue to find support in the 1.1950/2000 area. Chris Turner PLN: FX mortgage saga strikes back Today is a big moment for the Polish banking sector. This morning we should hear the decision of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in the FX mortgage case. As we mentioned earlier, this dispute is probably one of the main reasons why the zloty has significantly underperformed the CEE region this year. Thus, today's result should show whether the market's fears were real. And what is actually on the table? The ECJ was asked by a local court whether or not banks should receive interest on mortgage capital even when the loan contract had been invalidated by the court due to abusive clauses. Domestic courts are still struggling to judge how mutual obligations should be resolved if the loan is ruled to be invalid. In the event of a negative ruling for the banking sector, this would mean additional losses for the banks, which would of course have negative implications for Polish assets. It is hard to say what to expect today and how clear the decision will be. Another uncertainty is how much this risk is priced in. However, in any case it is an important tail risk for the zloty and Polish government bonds. Our Warsaw team covered all the details of the FX mortgage case in a recent article. It will be tough for the zloty to navigate through this news flow but as we mentioned earlier, we retain a bearish bias and expect the zloty to test 4.80 EUR/PLN. Frantisek Taborsky Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The dollar stalled on Thursday as investors scooped up higher-risk currencies after a string of strong US economic data bolstered confidence in the global growth outlook, even as the Federal Reserve appears poised to raise interest rates further. However, the question for market watchers is how well the economy can hold up, especially as interest rates are much higher than many initially thought. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish data on the producer price index (PPI) for January. It is forecast that in annual terms the PPI will fall to 5.4% from 6.2% in December and the core PPI will fall to 4.9% from 5.5%. USD/JPY The yen pair started the day trading above 134.00, but the upward momentum was not maintained and USD/JPY fell below that level to 133.70. In the following hours, USD/JPY tried to make up for losses. At the time of writing, the yen pair is close to 134.00 and trading at 133.9520. The appointment of former BJ board member Kazuo Ueda as governor of the central bank cooled speculations about an early normalization of interest rates. In the past, Ueda has warned of the danger of premature interest rate hikes, putting an end to any fears of higher interest rates in the foreseeable future. The perception that Ueda could improve YCC, given accelerating inflation, could at least limit USD/JPY's rise. EUR/USD EUR/USD regained traction after Wednesday's declines and moved into positive territory just above 1.0700 early in the day on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair is trading slightly above 1.07. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament on Wednesday that she intended to raise key interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in March. Lagarde reiterated that core inflation in the euro area is still high and price pressures remain strong. Later in the day, ECB Chief Economist Phillip Lane and ECB Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta will deliver speeches. If ECB officials leave the door open to additional rate hikes after March, euro losses are likely to remain contained in the short term. Read next: Tesla Will Make Supercharger Network, Visa Will Allow The Use Of Cryptocurrencies To Settle Transactions| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The Bank of England has already signaled it may stop raising interest rates in March, and Wednesday's inflation figures reinforced that view. Softer-than-expected January UK inflation data weighed heavily on sterling during European trading hours on Wednesday. GBP/USD is trading positive around 1.2050 on Wednesday. Positive turnaround in risk sentiment helps pair maintain gains as investors await US macro data releases. The UK inflation data released yesterday surprised negatively, which resulted in lower expectations for rate hikes. This also followed positive employment data, with market participants now pricing in a peak rate below 4.5%. This week's positive data could be the stimulus the Bank of England (BoE) needed to signal an early pause in rate hikes that could see GBP face further selling pressure. AUD/USD The recent decline of the Australian dollar against the US dollar reflects the disparity in the growth prospects of the two economies. This morning's decline from the dismal Australian jobs was no exception - employment fell for the second month in a row in January, while the unemployment rate rose to its highest level since May. The pair has maintained its intraday gains for the first half of the European session and is currently trading near the 0.6920 region. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

The cryptocurrency market still requires special regulations, new laws are still being introduced to this market. Wyoming remains the most popular state in the US for this market. JP Morgan is looking at the situation on the forex market. In this article: Wyoming is the most cryptocurrency-friendly states in the US Climate prediction model for wind and solar power The 2023 dollar projections by JP Morgan The Russo-Ukrainian war Wyoming is the most cryptocurrency-friendly states in the US Wyoming passed a bill Wednesday that effectively bans forced disclosure of private cryptographic keys by U.S. state courts. The private key is used to verify cryptographic transactions and prove ownership of a blockchain asset or address. The right includes any private keys associated with digital assets, someone's digital identity, or any other interests or rights that a private key provides. If approved by Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon, the bill will go into effect on July 1, 2023. Wyoming has long been touted as one of the most cryptocurrency-friendly states in the US It was the first U.S. state to declare a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) as a limited liability company (LLC) in July 2021, having previously considered state-issuing a stablecoin in February 2022, but has not gone very far since then. #cryptonews: Wyoming lawmakers pass a bill prohibiting forced disclosure of #Bitcoin private keys 🇺🇸 — CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) February 17, 2023 Climate prediction model for wind and solar power Economies around the world are moving towards renewable energy sources. China as the second largest economy in the world is introducing its own models that aim to accelerate and improve the green transformation. China has launched a national climate forecasting model for wind and solar resources to enable provincial governments to forecast energy demand and supply. Looking globally at renewables, unless new and stronger policies are implemented in 2023, global renewable power generation is expected to remain steady compared to 2022. While photovoltaics will break another record in 2023. China launches climate prediction model for wind and solar power https://t.co/DJKqCEH9bt pic.twitter.com/uR4bKzONIy — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 17, 2023 Read next: Microsoft: Bing With Artificial Intelligence And The First Mistakes And Confusing Answers| FXMAG.COM The 2023 dollar projections by JP Morgan 2022 was a historic year. The US dollar strengthened against almost every other major currency to levels not seen in decades as the Federal Reserve (Fed) aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation. The US dollar gained over 12% in 2022, hitting a two-decade high in September 2022. The 2023 dollar projections for various currency pairs are more related to country-specific factors that JP Morgan is looking at. The situation of the euro, pound and yen currencies will largely depend on developments in the economy. Currency markets have been volatile. Will we see the return of a strong U.S. dollar? And what’s the outlook for other major currencies? Explore J.P. Morgan Research insights: https://t.co/5Bc5HAn7ix pic.twitter.com/bE292j9fBr — J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan) February 16, 2023 The Russo-Ukrainian war The situation in Ukraine is getting worse. The Ukrainians, despite almost a year of defense, are still holding on, but Russia is not giving up. Several regions of Ukraine faced a barrage of missile attacks overnight, one of which hit the country's largest refinery. Meanwhile, Russia is increasing the number of reservists it is sending to the front lines as part of its anticipated spring offensive, and is already stepping up ground attacks in eastern and southern Ukraine. In addition, the world's government and military leaders gather in Munich, Germany, for the annual Munich Conference on International Security Policy. The theme of this year's summit is the Russo-Ukrainian war and it takes place just before the anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of its neighbour. World leaders convene in Munich; Zelenskyy rules out conceding territory for peace https://t.co/VTIFW9v3Lt — CNBC (@CNBC) February 17, 2023

The dollar rose to a six-week high on Friday as strong US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials prompted investors to bet on another rate hike. The Fed's target range is currently between 4.5% and 4.75%. Economists at Goldman Sachs on Thursday raised their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year. After previously expecting two more hikes, they said they now expect three more hikes of 25 bp in March, May and June. That would push interest rates to 5.25% to 5.5%. The US Economic Report will not include any macroeconomic data releases that could significantly affect the behavior of the US dollar. As such, market participants will pay close attention to risk perception. USD/JPY The yen pair hit its highest level in almost two months. USD/JPY has been trending up since the start of the day. USD/JPY started the day trading just above 134.07 and has now crossed the 135.00 mark. EUR/USD EUR/USD extended its decline during the Asian trading hours and hit its lowest level since early January below 1.0650. The technical outlook for the short-term pair shows that the bearish bias remains intact. Meanwhile, comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) officials add to the burden on the EUR/USD pair. The euro could weaken further as the market's interest-rate rise expectations for the European Central Bank may be overdone given comments from ECB members about the risks of excessive policy tightening. ECB board member Fabio Panetta said on Thursday that the ECB should consider the risk of unduly tightening policy and argued that the bank should not commit unconditionally in advance to future policy moves. From a more neutral point of view, the ECB's chief economist Philip Lane said he was open-minded about the exact amount of monetary tightening that would be needed to meet the inflation target. On the other hand, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reiterated that the interest rate will have to rise above 5% and stay there for some time for the Fed to control inflation. Read next: Wyoming Prohibits Forced Disclosure Of Private Cryptographic Keys By US State Courts, JP Morgan Projections Of FX Market| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD GBP/USD extends losses towards 1.1900 in the early European morning. The strength of the US dollar (USD) had a big impact on the GBP/USD exchange rate in the second half of the week. Hawkish comments from Fed policymakers and the latest released macroeconomic data have revived expectations that the Fed may decide to make additional interest rate hikes even after May. Data from the UK showed that retail sales rose by 0.5% in January, as compared to market expectations for a fall of 0.3%. While this reading was better than the market's 0.3% decline, December's -1% reading was revised lower to -1.2%, preventing Sterling from taking advantage of the data. AUD/USD Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman Lowe's comments did not stop the AUDUSD rate from falling. Governor Lowe warned that the RBA was keeping an open mind and their view was that further rate hikes were needed. Lowe also stated that interest rates are not on a predetermined path as it takes 18-24 months for rate hikes to make an impact in the economy. The pair of the Australian is in a downtrend on Friday. AUD/USD has fallen well below 0.69 and is trading below the 0.6820 level. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through the 104.33 high on Friday before turning sharply lower. The index is seen to be trading close to 103.60 at this point in writing as the bears are looking poised to remain in control. Potential remains for prices to drop towards 102.00 in the near term, before turning higher through 106.50 going forward. The US dollar index is working on a larger-degree corrective rally from the 100.50 low which was printed on February 02, 2023. The rally between 100.50 and 104.33 could be the first wave within the correction, which has the potential to push through 106.50 and 109.50 respectively. If the above structure holds well, prices could decline towards 102.00 as the second wave unfolds. As projected on the 4H chart here, the US dollar index is facing immediate resistance at 105.35 while support is seen around 102.00 respectively. A push above 105.35 will be constructive for the bulls and further open the door towards 109.50. Besides, note that 109.00-50 is passing close to the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire drop between 114.70 and 100.50. Trading idea: Potential bullish rally against 100.50 Good luck!   Relevance up to 06:00 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313269

The dollar fell on Monday but stayed close to Friday's six-week high as a recent wave of positive economic data boosted market expectations for a tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair started trading at 134.32 and then rose rapidly towards 134.50. The momentum was not extended and the yen fell to 134.00. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading slightly above 134.00 at 134.0290. The geopolitical risk intensified over the weekend when North Korea fired ballistic missiles into eastern waters overnight after an intercontinental ballistic missile was launched on Saturday. Saturday's launch landed off Japan's west coast and prompted joint exercises between the US and South Korea as well as the US and Japan. The sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said the use of the Pacific as a "training ground" would depend on the behavior of US forces and warned of the growing presence of US military assets in the region. This comes as rumors swirl of a new Russian offensive in Ukraine and ongoing US-China spy balloon issues. Markets are still awaiting guidance from the new leadership of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), but hopes for a move away from ultra-easy monetary policy may be overly optimistic. EUR/USD European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau reiterated that inflation in the eurozone is "too fast and probably persistent", while arguing that the ECB needs to be more predictable in its communications and provide a short-term policy outlook. Later in the day the European Commission will release flash consumer confidence index for February, which is expected to slightly improve to -19.0 from -20.9 in January. Poor trading conditions, however, will likely see the pair's shares confined to a narrow channel. The EUR/USD pair started the week at 1.0686 but was falling. After the fall, the EUR/USD pair rose towards 1.07, but failed to maintain momentum and the pair is again around 1.0680. Read next: EY Will Review Darktrace Key Financial And Control Processes| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD After last week's hesitant action, GBP/USD managed to rebound around the mid-1.2000 area early Monday. The cable pair has been falling from above 1.2050 and is currently trading at 1.2025. Sterling could fall if the Bank of England raises interest rates by 25 basis points in March, but signals that this will be the last hike. Some worrisome economic data from the UK dampened additional rate hikes after March, and money markets now appear to favor a break from the May meeting. The widening of the US-UK rate differential has recently weakened sterling, which could get even worse if the BOE formally deems a potential March interest rate hike to be its last, and given the US data still favors a tightening of the rate path interest rates for the Federal Reserve. AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair is based on Friday's good rebound from around 0.6800, the lowest level since January 6, and gaining strong traction on the first day of the new week. The Australian pair was growing towards 0.69. AUD/USD managed to drink through 0.69 and trade above that level. This momentum was interrupted and the pair dropped to 0.6901. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

It’s PMI day, and we think the euro could benefit from the reinforcement of its growth story after a period of few domestic drivers. With the Fed's hawkish rate repricing having gone a long way, we suspect the USD rally may soon run out of steam, even though risk-off may delay a downtrend. Elsewhere, we expect a hawkish 50bp RBNZ hike, but dovish risks have risen Yesterday's visit by President Joe Biden to Kyiv reiterate the now well-established notion that this will be a long war USD: Supported by risk-off mood, but rally looks tired After a very quiet start to the week in FX due to a US holiday, we should start to see some action today. Yesterday’s visit by President Joe Biden to Kyiv and the pledge for more support to Ukraine don’t have clear implications for markets in the near term, but probably reiterate the now well-established notion that this will be a long conflict. The ramifications for the global economy can still be quite deep, especially in neighbouring Europe, but energy prices have been the main transmission channel from the war to the market, and TTF trading around 50 EUR/KWh is allowing markets to turn a blind eye to longer-term risks. We argued in yesterday’s FX Daily how this could be the week where the dollar rally starts losing some steam. The main reason for this is that the recent hawkish rhetoric and strong data have likely been absorbed by now and a further hawkish repricing in Fed rate expectations (currently embedding a 5.40/45% peak rate) is looking increasingly harder. We think that at this stage, it may be mostly down to external factors – like news from Ukraine/China or a general deterioration in risk sentiment – to push the dollar even higher. The key event on the Fed front this week, the FOMC minutes, may not match the hawkish tone we heard after the strong jobs and inflation data released after the meeting. PMIs will be watched in the US like in the eurozone, but the rebound in other surveys already favoured a positive re-rating in US growth expectations and may have set the bar quite high for a major positive surprise to lift the dollar. Still, signs of deterioration in the global risk sentiment this morning suggest today might not be the day for the start of a dollar downtrend, but – equally – we struggle to see DXY extend the recent rally to 105.00 and we could instead witness the start of a decline again towards 102.50-103.00 in the coming days. Francesco Pesole EUR: A reminder of the improved growth outlook The euro has been left without strong domestic drivers on the data front over the past week, so today’s PMIs will be watched quite closely. Consensus is leaning in favour of some modest improvement in both manufacturing and service gauges, and investors might see this as an opportunity to re-enter strategic medium-term long-EUR positions now that the dollar correction seems to be losing momentum. Instability in global risk appetite today may delay the beneficial effects on EUR/USD today, but we still see the balance of risks tilted to the upside for EUR/USD in the coming days, and a return to the 1.0750-1.0800 range seems possible. Elsewhere, it is a very busy week in Sweden. Despite some easing in inflation expectations in the Prospera survey released this morning, yesterday’s core CPIF inflation print came in hotter than expected at 8.7% (rising from 8.4%), and EUR/SEK dropped on expectations of more Riksbank tightening. While this fits our view for a recovery in the krona over the course of the year, we warn against celebrating too early. Remember that the slump in SEK was originally triggered by concerns about the Swedish economic and housing situation, and while more Riksbank tightening helps SEK in the near term, it raises the risks of a black-swan scenario materialising down the road. We think activity data and the outcome of wage negotiations can still generate significant volatility in the krona, and a sustainable move below 11.00 in EUR/SEK still looks premature.   What the Riksbank surely wants is a stronger SEK, and we have now gotten used to hearing references to the currency from many speakers. The minutes from the latest meeting, released yesterday, did all but confirm that there is a strong hawkish direction at the Riksbank. We have long argued how maintaining such rhetoric is likely the best way to navigate the current policy challenges in Sweden. We’d be surprised to hear any dovish hint from the two speakers today (Floden and Ohlsson) or by Governor Erik Thedeen tomorrow.   Francesco Pesole GBP: Looking unlikely to sustainably outperform EUR The PMIs will also be released in the UK this morning, and the consensus seems to be looking at an improving outlook here as well. Still, UK PMIs should continue to fall below the eurozone ones and therefore continue to point to the UK’s relative economic underperformance. Ultimately, we struggle to see the pound consistently strengthening against the euro, especially as we expect the Bank of England to deliver only one last 25bp hike in March, while markets are partly pricing in further tightening after that. EUR/GBP may stay range-bound or climb gradually at this stage. Francesco Pesole NZD: We expect 50bp by RBNZ, but watch the cyclone risk The Royal Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces monetary policy at 0100 GMT tomorrow and we are aligned with the consensus call for a 50bp rate hike – as discussed in our meeting preview. This is its first monetary policy meeting since November, and policymakers will need to take note of the deterioration in activity indicators, inflation having undershot the Bank’s projections, and a housing market that has remained under pressure. All those factors are enough, in our view, to convince the RBNZ to slow the pace of tightening from 75bp to 50bp, but there is probably little advantage in offering dovish signals to the market. Such signals would not just come with a smaller – 25bp hike – but also by revising the peak rate projections lower, which are currently at 5.50% in mid-2023. We have increasing doubts that the 5.50% level will be reached at all (rates are at 4.25% now). Despite the house price correction having largely been in line with RBNZ projections, lower-than-expected inflation would encourage stopping hikes – and hopefully the housing slump – earlier. It is, however, too premature to review those rate projections lower, in our view, at least until there is more conclusive evidence that the disinflation process has started. There is one key risk to our call though: the impact of the cyclone in New Zealand. This has triggered growing speculation that the RBNZ will only hike by 25bp or even pause, and is probably behind the drop in NZD/USD to 0.6200 this morning.  Admittedly, this downside risk has become more material now, but we stick to our call for a hawkish 50bp hike by the RBNZ, and we think this will lift the New Zealand dollar tomorrow. However, we think this may be one of the last times the RBNZ has a direct positive impact on NZD as many factors suggest a dovish pivot will come soon. Francesco Pesole Read this article on THINK TagsNew Zealand dollar FX Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The dollar was parked below recent peaks on Tuesday, as a three-week rally faded and traders waited on economic data to figure out whether it's warranted to push the dollar up any further. Strong U.S. labour data and sticky inflation have raised U.S. rate expectations and supported the dollar's rally this month - Tuesday's European and U.S. manufacturing data and Friday's core PCE price index will guide the next steps. After an unannounced visit to Kiev, US President Joe Biden will visit Poland on Tuesday. Biden will reportedly talk about strengthening Poland's security by increasing NATO's presence in the country. USD/JPY USD/JPY regains positive traction on Tuesday and maintains its bidding tone throughout the first half of the European session. The pair is gradually approaching the level of 135.00. The yen pair at the time of writing is close to 134.70. The services PMI in Japan turned out to be much better than expected and from the previous reading. The manufacturing PMI was well below expectations, falling month-on-month. On the policy front, the European Central Bank has continued to aggressively tighten policy, despite signs that inflationary pressures may have peaked. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points at its February meeting to the highest level since late 2008, marking another hike of the same magnitude next month and reaffirming its commitment to fighting inflation. Source: investing.com EUR/USD The euro stayed below USD 1.07, oscillating around the weakest level since January 6. In the eurozone and Germany, the manufacturing PMIs turned out to be weak, below expected levels. Services PMI rose. And also ZEW economic sentiment showed an improvement in sentiment. Source: investing.com Read next: Baltic Pipe Is Alternative Energy Source For Poland| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The data on public finances in the UK released this morning exceeded estimates. The pound strengthened on Tuesday after data showed an unexpected rebound in UK business activity, suggesting the economy could avoid a deep recession. The pound managed to break through 1.2100 and is currently trading just above. UK data showed private sector business activity surged in early February with the Composite PMI rising to 53 from 48.5, providing a boost to sterling. As the UK private sector is resilient to strong inflation, the Bank of England is likely to continue to raise its key rate without worrying about a deep recession. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said late Monday evening that they would hold further talks with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol in the coming days. Cleverly is also reportedly planning to address Tory MPs on Wednesday to give an update on the negotiations. Source: investing.com AUD/USD The minutes of the RBA meeting revealed most of what was already known to the market. The outlook for the Australian economy has many positive aspects, but a potential concern is that the CPI outperforms both PPI and wage inflation. The year-on-year CPI by the end of 2023 was 7.8%, and the PPI in the same period was 5.8%. Tomorrow the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the Wage Price Index. The AUD/USD pair came under renewed selling pressure on Tuesday and reversed much of the positive move from the previous day. The pair remains below the 0.6900 level for the first half of the European session. The Aussie pair is above 0.6880. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

US stocks now join the treasury selloff, and the US dollar pushes higher on the back of the increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. The preliminary PMI in the US came in better than expected for February, and the services PMI ticked above the 50 mark, into the expansion zone, for the first time since last July. Walmart and Home Depot  The strong economic data further fueled the Fed hawks. But this time, the stocks sold off as well, despite the strong economic data. The weak outlook from Walmart and Home Depot left the no-landing bets under the dark shadow of higher US yields. The S&P500 dived 2% on Tuesday, below the minor 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on the latest October to February rally, and below the 4000 psychological mark. Fed Today, the FOMC minutes will be closely watched. We know that the Fed officials will sound concerned with the strong jobs market and will point at the resilience of the economy to continue hiking the rates. That could further weigh on equity appetite. Fed hawks are supportive of the US dollar, however. Read next: The Pound Gained After The Publication Of PMI Reports, Euro Is Below 1.07, USD/JPY Pair Is Above 134.50| FXMAG.COM Reserve Bank of New Zealand Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiked its interest rates by 50bp today, after a three-month break and Nvidia will be reporting Q4 earnings after the bell. Nvidia results may look ugly, but long-term investors could look beyond the potentially ugly results: Here is why: https://medium.com/@swissquote.education Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:36 US equities join the treasury selloff 1:46 Walmart, Home Depot beat, but warn of weaker outlook 4:55 USD gains on rising hawkish Fed bets 6:37 RBNZ hikes by 50bp 7:32 FOMC minutes to further weigh on sentiment 8:02 Should you look past potentially ugly Nvidia earnings? Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Walmart #HomeDepot #Nvidia #earnings #FOMC #minutes #Fed #expectations #RBNZ #rate #hike #USD #EUR #NZD #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The dollar rose slightly on Wednesday, continuing to trade near six-week highs on the back of strong economic data. Survey data released on Tuesday showed U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February to reach its highest in eight months. In the euro zone, a survey-based gauge of activity also surged, hitting a nine-month high. Investors' focus now turns to the release of the minutes from the Fed's latest meeting later on Wednesday, which could offer more insight into policymakers' plans. USD/JPY One pair is moving in a sine wave pattern today. In the first hours of trading, USD/JPY dropped to around 134.60 and then rose to around 1134.95. This move has been repeated once again, and USD/JPY is now heading down towards 134.65. Bond purchases and BOJ loans dominate the headlines in Japan. The Japanese yen found some support against the US dollar on Wednesday morning, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) had to buy 10-year government bonds due to the yield breaking the upper limit set by the BoJ (0.5%) of their policy range. It was the second consecutive trading session during which this took place. BOJ's Tamura gave mixed messages, stating that loose monetary policy is now required, but future policy changes will be crucial at some point in the future. EUR/USD The movement of the EUR/USD pair in Asian Russia and at the beginning of the European traded in the range of 1.6550-1.6650. In the European session, the pair fell and is currently trading around 1.6300. Yesterday's data from the euro zone showed further improvement, with flash PMI beating estimates in the services sector, while production fell slightly. The Zew Sentiment Survey reflected an improvement in sentiment and optimism, with expectations and current conditions outperforming estimates in both the Eurozone and Germany. This morning brought German inflation data for January up from December, confirming comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde about a 50 basis point hike at the upcoming meeting Read next: Sweden And Finland Are Getting Closer To Becoming NATO Members| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The cable pair in the Asian session kept its momentum above 1.21. The European session is not favorable for the gunt pair and the pair is below 1.21. At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at 1.2090. Sterling pulled back on Wednesday after rising sharply on stronger-than-expected British business activity as traders awaited consumer confidence data and focused on Britain's political headaches. The latest UK PMIs beat forecasts and showed business activity in the UK, especially in the services sector, picking up sharply in February. The latest data suggest that the UK economy may be improving, giving the Bank of England more wiggle room to increase interest rates. UK inflation is on the way down, but at a current level of 10.1% is sharply higher than the Bank of England’s (BoE) mandate of around 2%. Inflation is expected to fall quickly over the coming months, according to the BoE, as energy prices and the cost of imported goods fall. AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair adds to the significant losses from the previous day and remains under selling pressure for the second day in a row on Wednesday. The Aussie Pair is holding below 0.69. At the beginning of the day, AUD/USD started to fall to the level of 0.6830 and in the Asian session kept trading in the range of 0.6830-0.6840. In the first hours of trading in the European session, the Australian pair fell below 0.6820, but managed to rebound and at the time of writing was just above 0.6830. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through 104.24 during the New York session on Wednesday before pulling back. The index is seen to be trading close to 104.00 levels at this point in writing as the bears are ready to drag the price lower towards 102.00. On the other hand, if prices break above 104.30 consistently, the bulls would want to take out resistance at 105.35 before giving up. The US dollar index is carving a larger-degree corrective rally, which began from 100.50 on February 02, 2023. The above corrective rally is expected to terminate close to 106.50 and up to 109.30 in the next few weeks. Within the above structure, a counter-trend drop could unfold dragging prices below 102.00 before the bulls are back. Ideally, prices should remain above 100.50 to keep the above bullish structure intact. Furthermore, a push above 105.35 will confirm and open the door towards 106.50 and 109.30 as projected on the 4H chart here. Also, note that 109.30 is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of its earlier decline from 114.70 to 100.50, hence a bearish reaction is possible. Trading idea: A potential bullish move to continue against 100.50 Good luck! Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/313745

Last night's release of the February FOMC minutes provided little comfort to dollar bears who were looking for signs that the Fed was increasingly buying into the disinflation/slowdown narrative. Yet the subsequent rise in US yields and strengthening of the dollar has been quite muted. It's a quiet day for data in the G10 space, but EM FX is interesting USD: FOMC minutes can keep the dollar supported Despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounding quite relaxed at the 1 February press conference and declaring that the 'disinflation process has started', the minutes of that meeting were largely hawkish. The consensus agreed that further rate increases were needed and that inflation remained unacceptably high. There were no hints of a pause and very little to divert market pricing of three more 25bp hikes from the Fed over the March, May and June meetings. This backdrop can keep the dollar supported in the near term and potentially into the 22 March FOMC meeting, where the debate will focus on whether the Fed Dot Plots will retain a median view of a 100bp easing cycle in 2024. For dollar bears, both activity and price data will have to soften over the coming weeks to make an impact on an otherwise hawkish Fed. The next set of meaningful US data is tomorrow's core PCE data for January - but even that is likely to see the core month-on-month reading rising to 0.4% from 0.3%. And for today, the market should not take too much notice of revisions to the strong fourth quarter GDP data -  driven by an inventory build and weaker imports. Our first quarter game plan is that DXY does not hold onto these gains. But for the time being, it looks like DXY wants to probe higher to the 105.00 area with outside risks this quarter to the 106.00/106.50 area. Chris Turner EUR: PMIs drowned out by hawkish Fed The better run of European PMIs earlier this week has rather been drowned out by the hawkish Fed. And actually, the German Ifo proved something of a reality check, where the current assessment of business conditions continued to deteriorate. The good news for EUR/USD is that the re-pricing of the European Central Bank cycle has nearly matched that of the Fed - meaning that the two-year EUR:USD swap differential has not substantially widened in favour of the dollar. In fact, it was interesting to read in the FOMC minutes - under the market developments section - that the Fed felt it was interest rate differentials and the improved Rest of World growth prospects that had been weighing on the dollar into January. These are the factors we have been using in our scenario analyses.  For the short term, EUR/USD remains soggy and it is hard to rule out a break under 1.0600 towards the 1.05 area. Our game plan remains that 1.04/1.05 could now be some of the lowest EUR/USD levels of the year - but it feels like EUR/USD could trade on the offered side for a few weeks yet. Chris  Turner EUR/SEK has seemed to find support at the key 11.00 level for two consecutive sessions after rising bets on Riksbank tightening had put pressure on the pair. We could see a temporary break below 11.00, but our view is that a sustained SEK rally is premature. Our short-term fair value model shows how there is no risk premium left on EUR/SEK: in other words, markets have priced out the risk of a collapse in the housing market in Sweden and a consequent slump of the whole economy. While hawkish Riksbank rhetoric is helping the krona, markets may have moved too quickly on the optimistic side. Upcoming data may underpin the rising risks to the Swedish economy, and could trigger a rebound in EUR/SEK before a sustainable move below 11.00 can materialise - we think from the end of the second quarter onwards. Francesco Pesole GBP: BoE's Mann speaks today Sterling is just about holding onto Tuesday's gains when strong PMI data triggered a sharp re-pricing of the Bank of England curve. Markets now price a further 50bp of BoE hikes by June - taking the Bank Rate to 4.50% - and the policy rate being kept there until early 2024. For today, the focus will be on a speech at 1030CET by the BoE's Catherine Mann. She speaks at the Resolution  Foundation on 'The results of rising rates: Expectations, lags and the transmission of monetary policy'. This sounds like it could be a dovish speech - i.e. let's pause and see what prior tightening has done. However, she is a hawk and with no clear signs of an easing in tight labour market conditions we doubt she will want to knock the current market pricing of the BoE cycle. We think EUR/GBP probably traces out a 0.8750-0.9000 range for the first half of the year, while cable should find support under 1.20. Also - whisper it. Sterling offers quite attractive risk-adjusted yields in the G10 space. Chris Turner ZAR: Seeking alpha There is much talk of 'stock-picking' or 'seeking alpha' this year as financial markets may no longer be purely risk on/risk off. In other words, local stories are having a greater bearing and that is certainly true in the EM FX space. We are no longer looking at the kind of homogeneous returns driven purely by the Fed/China story.  Here we will quickly look at two topics. The first is that some emerging currencies are lagging as politicians start to resist high interest rates and question central bank independence. This has been a loose fear in Brazil with the new Lula administration questioning whether the central bank needs to lift its inflation target. The Brazilian real has lagged gains in EM FX this year and we expect it to continue underperforming. More surprising have been events in Israel, where the Foreign Minister heavily criticised the central bank for hiking rates 50bp on Monday. Normally an outperformer, the Israel shekel was hit hard on the news and the Israeli government has spent the rest of the week trying to re-affirm the independence of the central bank. We like the shekel and see USD/ILS trading back to 3.30/3,40 later this year. But we will now have to watch political developments closely. Meanwhile, the South African government yesterday announced a major financial support plan for state utility, Eskom. The plan has been greeted well by Eskom bondholders, though the support means South Africa's sovereign debt to GDP profile deteriorates. The South African rand has been an underperformer this year and near 8% implied yields through the three-month forwards and the China recovery story have not been enough to provide support. We think investors will continue to pause for thought before chasing yields in the rand. For those investors wanting to take exposure in EM FX, we continue to think the Mexican peso remains attractive. It has one of the highest risk-adjusted yields in the EM FX space (implied yields corrected by implied volatility from the FX options market) and the Mexican sovereign trades on a narrower CDS than most after Mexico refused to add on debt during the pandemic. USD/MXN looks biased to the 18.00 area. Chris Turner Read this article on THINK

The Dollar Index has risen 3.8% to 104.5 from its lows in early February. Prior to that, the dollar index had been falling since late September, giving back half of the gains from the global rally triggered by the Fed's sharp monetary tightening. Although the dollar's decline in recent months has been deeper than a typical Fibonacci retracement, this move looks like a profound correction within an uptrend. Early this month, the Dollar got support on the decline to the 100 area, a significant round level that acted as almost impregnable resistance in the pandemic. This time it proved to be no less solid support. In addition, the dollar looked oversold, which provided initial support in early February. However, the US currency's momentum against its rivals no longer looks like a technical fluctuation but rather a deliberate buying of dollar-denominated securities. The fundamental reason for buying the US currency is the strong macroeconomic data, with inflation still alarmingly high, which should strengthen the central bank's will to tighten. Judging by the tone of officials' comments, the Fed is ready to do so. The minutes of the last meeting showed that FOMC members felt that a 25-basis point hike was appropriate but that they were prepared to consider a sharper hike if needed. Even with the standard step, the Fed intends to stop tightening policy later than the markets have been expecting in recent months, which has helped to boost equities. Read next: The Real Estate Market In China Has A Chance To Revive, Indonesia Economy Is More Resilient| FXMAG.COM The long-term bullish trend in the dollar suggests that the DXY will return to multi-year highs near 115 by the end of this year. Even without taking such a global view, the near-term outlook for the dollar remains bullish. Since the beginning of the week, the rally has taken the corrective pullback to a new level. A consolidation of the DXY above 104 opens the way to 106, a retreat to 61.8% of the last four months' failure after failing to reverse downside resistance at 76.4% of that move. There is a 200-day moving average of 106. It is unlikely we will see a real bull and bear battle for the USD until these levels.

The dollar held shy of multi-week peaks against other major currencies on Thursday, a day after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting supported, but did not add to markets' view the central bank will raise rates further. Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting released last night confirmed the hawkish rhetoric of Fed officials over the past two weeks. The key takeaway, of course, is that the Fed is committed to keeping interest rates higher for longer to bring inflation down to the 2% target. The impact of the protocol was somewhat dampened as the meeting was preceded by a series of metrics released in February, most notably employment figures, which showed the US economy was doing well, leaving more room for the Fed to raise interest rates to bring down inflation. Markets will be focused on US GDP as well as the accompanying labor market data in the form of jobless claims. US GDP is expected to come in marginally weaker than the previous. USD/JPY USD/JPY struggles to gain any significant traction on Thursday and trades in a tight band just below the psychological 135.00 mark for the first half of the European session. The yen pair started the day above 134.90, in the Asian session USD/JPY fell towards 134.70. In the European session, USD/JPY increased and is now just below 135.00. In addition, the USD/JPY pair is also weighed down by hawkish concerns around the Bank of Japan (BoJ), due to the imminent end of the term of governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Alternatively, Fed policymakers are poised for further interest rate hikes, according to the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, which in turn is fueling demand for the US dollar. EUR/USD EUR/USD in the Asian session was above 1.06, and the pair traded close to the 1.0630 level. In the Asian session, EUR/USD fell below 1.06. This morning brought data on inflation in the euro zone for January, in which annual inflation fell to 8.6% in the euro zone and to 10.0% in the EU. In January, food, alcohol and tobacco accounted for the largest contributors to the euro area's annual inflation rate, followed by energy, services and non-energy industrial goods, according to data released by Eurostat. In addition, EU members will hold further talks on a new package of sanctions against Russia after failing to reach an agreement on Wednesday. According to Reuters, the proposed package includes trade restrictions worth more than €10 billion. Russia is reportedly planning to cut oil production in response to Western sanctions. The heightened risk of rising energy prices, which will contribute to stronger inflation in the eurozone, could help the euro hold its position in the short term, as such a situation would force the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates further after March. Read next: Tesla Opens Its Global Engineering Headquarters In Palo Alto, California| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The cable pair in the Asian session was rising towards 1.2070, but in the European session it lost momentum and fell to the level of 1.2020. Currently, GBP/USD is at 1.2022. GBP/USD extended its decline towards 1.2000 early Thursday after reversing much of the PMI-driven gains on Wednesday. Markets will be keeping a close eye on US stocks and Brexit developments for the remainder of the day. AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair was rising towards 0.6840 in the first hours of trading. Then the pair of the Australian fell and rebounded again. In the European session the Aussie Pair traded below 0.6820, currently the AUD/USD pair is trading above 0.6820. Australian capital expenditure data beat estimates across the board (reaching its highest level since Q4 2021) showing optimism in these sectors. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

Hawkish were the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. They confirmed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are indeed not lying when they say that they will continue hiking the interest rates to tame inflation toward the 2% mark. US and China Both the US 2 and 10-year yields bounced lower from early-week highs. A part of it was perhaps explained by the rising tensions between the US and China after China said that their relationship with Russia is ‘rock solid’. Stock market The S&P500 eased another 0.16%, Nasdaq tipped a toe into the bearish consolidation zone, but US equity futures are in the positive this morning, as the tech-heavy index is boosted by an almost 9% jump in Nvidia shares in the afterhours trading, after the company announced soft, but better than expected results. US GDP Due today, the US GDP is expected to have expanded 2.9% in the Q4, which is a fairly strong number. A read above expectations will certainly boost the Fed hawks on the idea that the US economy is resilient enough to withstand more hikes, while a number below expectations could ease the hawkish Fed tensions. But the days when bad news was good news are gone. At this point, we can’t really bet that a soft growth would soften the Fed’s hand. Only soft inflation could do that. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:25 FOMC minutes confirmed hawkish stance 2:50 Nvidia results help Nasdaq shake off post-minutes moodiness 4:12 But could the US stock rally extend?! 6:30 Watch US GDP update today 7:30 USD consolidates gains, EURUSD struggles 8:27 Energy prices push lower Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #FOMC #minutes #Nvidia #earnings #EUR #inflation #natural #gas #crude #oil #EIA #US #GDP #data #USD #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

The dollar index rose to seven-week highs on Friday as investors braced for an extended hold on higher US interest rates after a series of strong economic data in the US. Investors await data on the US Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The annual core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, is projected to fall to 4.3% in January from 4.4% in December. The core consumer price index (CPI) fell to 5.6% y/y in January from 5.7% in December. A modest fall in core PCE inflation should not come as a big surprise at this point. The PCE Core Price Index is expected to increase by 0.4% m/m. In the event that the monthly value exceeds the market consensus, the US dollar may gain strength. It is worth noting, however, that markets are already fully pricing in two more Fed rate hikes of 25 basis points in March and May. USD/JPY USD/JPY started the day with a decline towards 134.20. Then the yen pair moved upwards. USD/JPY hit 135.00 and is now trading at 135.3850 The Japanese yen may fall further after the new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled that very loose monetary policy should be maintained. Ueda's comments after his approval in the lower house of Japan's parliament did not produce any clear hawkish signal that could fuel a resurgence of speculative demand for the yen in the near term. EUR/USD EUR/USD traded above 1.06 in the Asian session, mostly in the 1.0605-1.0610 range. In the European session, the EUR/USD pair lost momentum and returned to levels below 1.06. Currently, the pair is trading just below 1.06 at 1.0580. The euro started the European session weaker after worse than expected data on German GDP. GDP data showed that the German economy contracted (-0.4%) in the fourth quarter of 2022 and brought recession talk back. Moreover, a weaker-than-expected rise in monthly core PCE inflation could trigger a USD correction and help the EUR/USD rebound ahead of the weekend. Read next: Visa Success At The Expense Of Small Businesses| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The cable pair in the Asian session and in the beginning of the European session traded around 1.2020. The GBP/USD pair lost momentum and fell below 1.20, at 1.1987. British consumers have become more optimistic about their personal finances and economic outlook, but their sentiment is much lower than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic, research firm GfK said on Friday. Improved consumer sentiment does not always translate to improved spending, as evidenced by the flat retail sales reading for February from the Confederation of British Industry on Thursday. However, energy prices are finally backing down from last year's highs and the UK economy is not looking as bad as expected just a few weeks ago, according to this week's Purchasing Management Index (PMI) business activity survey that showed an unexpected rebound in early February. AUD/USD The pair of the Australian in the Asian session stayed above 0.6819, but with the start of the European session it began to fall below 0.68. Currently the Aussie Pair is trading below 0.6870 The Australian yen gained in value after the alleged head of Japan's central bank maintained the status quo on monetary policy and was apparently in no rush to end its massive stimulus programme.. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

The dollar fell from a seven-week high on Monday as investors took stock of last week's strong US economic data and outlook for global interest rates. Friday's data showed that US consumer spending rose sharply in January, while inflation accelerated. Traders now expect the Fed to raise interest rates to around 5.4% by the summer. USD/JPY The first day of the new week for the USD/JPY pair was mixed in both the Asian and European sessions. The pair started the week at 136.4430, but fell to 136.00 during the day. At the time of writing, the yen was trading at 136.2970. In late February, the Japanese yen weakened above 136 to the dollar, hitting its lowest level in more than two months as Ueda, nominated governor of the Bank of Japan, doubled down on the bank's very restrictive monetary policy. The new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, said on Monday that the benefits of the bank's current monetary policy outweigh the costs, stressing the need to maintain support for the Japanese economy with very low interest rates. The comments reinforced signals that the bank will not turn away from its dovish attitude anytime soon. Previously, Ueda had opposed monetary tightening in response to cost-driven inflation and rejected immediate changes to the bank's yield curve control, warning that such measures would deeply hurt growth. EUR/USD EUR/USD started the week at 1.0556. In the Asian session, it mostly traded near 1.0550 and even 1.0560, then fell below 1.0540. In the European session, the euro was rising towards 1.0570. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0560. The US currency has benefited widely from the view that its central bank has more power and leeway to counter inflation. Meanwhile, the Eurozone has to meet the varying needs of its twenty national economies, some of which will struggle to cope with even minor further interest rate increases. Interest rate differentials are likely to dominate euro fundamentals this week, although some key domestic data is emerging, most notably official eurozone inflation data. Due for release on Thursday and the annual base rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.3% Read next: BNP Paribas Sued For Providing Financial Services To Companies That Allegedly Contribute To Deforestation Of The Amazon Rainforest| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The movement of the cable pair resembles the movement of EUR/USD. GBP/USD started the week at 1.1950, but during the day GBP/USD fell towards 1.1930. In the European session, it gained an upward momentum and exceeded the level of 1.1980. Politically, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is due to travel to the UK today to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on a new Brexit deal. This could see a resumption of trade between Northern Ireland and the UK, but it has not really translated into the GBP yet. AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair is the worst performer among the major currency pairs. The Aussie Pair started the day above 0.6730 but fell towards 0.6700 in the next session. In the European session, AUD/USD has slightly increased and at the time of writing it is just above 0.6710. The Australian dollar weakened to around $0.67, trading at its lowest level in nearly 2 months as better-than-expected US economic data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to raise interest rates further to stem rising inflation. Weak domestic employment data also affected the currency with Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 3.7% in Q4 despite expectations to hold steady at 3.5%. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest monetary policy statement showed it had revised its inflation forecast for this year higher, saying price pressures were spreading to services and wages. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index dropped through 104.24 lows intraday on Monday before finding bids again. The index is seen to be trading close to the 104.45 mark at this point in writing as bears prepare to drag further toward 104.00 levels in the near term. Intraday resistance could be seen close to the 104.55-60 zone for bears to be back in control. The US dollar index is broadly unfolding a larger degree corrective rally since hitting 100.50 lows early in February. The index might have terminated its first wave close to 105.00 over the last week and could be preparing for a corrective pullback toward 102.50 at least. We can expect the final wave to go higher toward 106.50 and further thereafter. The US dollar index is facing immediate resistance at 105.35; while support comes in around 103.40, followed by 102.40 levels respectively. A continued drop towards 104.00 will add further confidence to the fact that Wave B is progressing. On the flip side, if prices push beyond 105.35 from here, it could open the door toward 106.50 sooner than expected. Trading plan: Potential drop to 102.50 near term then rally resumes. Good luck!   Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314234

The dollar is restrengthening this morning after a soft start to the week. Still, the data flow is not endorsing any unwinding of Fed hawkish bets and further improvements in risk sentiment may become harder to sustain. Today, keep an eye on French and Spanish inflation, and on the Norges Bank FX purchases announcement UK PM Rishi Sunak and EC President Ursula von der Leyen at a press conference on a new post-Brexit trade arrangement for Northern Ireland USD: Not trusting a big rebound in risk sentiment The dollar is trading stronger across the board this morning after suffering a correction yesterday that was due to a rebound in global equities and probably some month-end flows. We have recently highlighted how the narrative for the greenback has turned more structurally supportive, meaning that a return to a USD downtrend will take time and may only be very gradual. That is unless incoming data start painting a different picture for the US economic and inflation outlook, which would force some unwinding of recent hawkish bets on the Fed. This week’s key data releases will be the ISM surveys, and in particular Friday’s ISM services index, which served as a benchmark for the rapid swings in US growth sentiment over the past two prints. Still, we have some interesting data points to monitor today. The Conference Board consumer confidence indicator is expected to rise after a small contraction in January, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is also expected to improve, while wholesale inventories may hold at 0.1% month-on-month in the January read. US data may not move the market dramatically today, so the dollar may be primarily driven by global risk sentiment. We struggle to see a material and sustained recovery in global equities in such a worsening valuation environment, and with data still supporting the Fed’s hawks for now, the dollar’s short-term bias still appears neutral/modestly bullish. A return above 105.00 in DXY seems possible in the ISM services release on Friday. Francesco Pesole EUR: Regional CPI figures in focus Inflation figures for January are the main highlight of the week in the eurozone, and today’s numbers out of France and Spain may already start moving the market. Remember that inflation rebounded in both of those countries in January, which underpinned the recent ECB hawkish narrative. Today, consensus sees a stabilisation in the EU-harmonised French inflation at 7.0% and a slowdown from 5.9% to 5.7% in Spain. Unless we see a material surprise on the downside – that would suggest a more widespread easing in price pressures across the eurozone – today’s regional CPI figures may fail to dent hawkish expectations for ECB tightening. Markets are currently pricing in around 130-140bp of tightening before reaching the peak. This could offer some floor to the euro, and we expect any re-strengthening of the dollar to see high-beta commodity currencies more at risk than the euro for the time being. Still, the risks of 1.0500 being tested in the near term remain elevated. Francesco Pesole GBP: Impact of new Northern Ireland deal may be only short-lived The pound is one of the best-performing currencies since the start of the week after the confirmation of a new UK-EU deal on Northern Ireland. The “Windsor Framework” reviews some sticky points of the existing NI protocol, essentially reducing the number of checks on trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The direct impact on the UK economy should not be significant, but markets are probably welcoming the conciliatory steps in UK-EU trade relationships. It seems hard, however, that the pound will find sustained support simply based on the new NI deal. The central bank story should instead remain the most central driver of GBP, and given the lack of data today, markets will watch three Bank of England speakers today: Jon Cunliffe, Huw Pill and Catherine Mann. A 25bp move in March is fully in the price, and the debate appears to be much more centred on whether the Bank will need to keep tightening beyond March: markets are definitely swinging on the hawkish side, expecting a total of 80bp of tightening before reaching a peak. For now, the global central bank narrative and improving UK data are not giving many reasons to unwind such hawkish expectations, and the pound may continue to prove more resilient than other pro-cyclical currencies. Francesco Pesole Scandinavia: Grim data in Sweden and Norges Bank FX sales in focus Swedish growth data came on the soft side this morning. The second print of fourth-quarter data showed a larger contraction (0.9%) than previously estimated (0.6%). Although this is clearly backward-looking data, the ongoing tightening by the Riksbank, a very fragile housing market and high inflation continue to point to a rather grim economic outlook in Sweden. Remember that we are approaching the end of wage negotiations in Sweden, which may suggest even more monetary tightening will be required. We see the recent good performance of SEK as unsustainable unless data start pointing at an improvement in the growth outlook. A return to 11.10+ in EUR/SEK (paired with elevated volatility) is a tangible possibility in the coming weeks. In Norway, we’ll keep a close eye on Norges Bank’s announcement of daily FX purchases for the month of March this morning. Net purchases were increased to 1.9bn NOK for February after three months of reductions from the 4.3bn peak in October 2022. With NOK being the worst-performing currency in G10 this year and risk sentiment instability continuing to pose downside threats (remember the krone is the least liquid currency in G10), some support in the shape of lower FX purchases may come from Norges Bank today. This may avert – or at least delay – another decisive break above 11.00 in EUR/NOK. Francesco Pesole Read this article on THINK TagsFX Dollar Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The U.S. dollar resumed its rally on Tuesday after dipping against sterling and the euro a day earlier, putting it back on track for its first monthly gain since September. The greenback's rally gathered momentum in recent weeks as upbeat economic data led to mounting expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates more than initially expected. The US economic report will include the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey for February. In January, the annual expected consumer inflation component of this survey rose to 6.8% from 6.6% in December. The latest inflation data for January showed that price pressure remained higher than expected. If consumers' inflation expectations continue to rise, the US dollar could gain strength in the second half of the day. USD/JPY In the Asian session, the yen traded in the range of 136.20-136.30, but in the Asian session there was a sharp increase and at the time of writing USD/JPY is trading at 136.6930. Recent comments from new BOJ vice-president Shinichi Uchida and current BOJ governor candidate Kazuo Ueda had a dovish tone during testimony before the upper house of the Japanese parliament. Ueda confirmed his intention to stick to "abenomics" and defend the central bank's monetary policy stance. Japanese data released overnight were mixed as industrial production was weaker than expected and retail sales rose. Industrial production recorded the first decline in 3 months, when production fell in January by 4.9%MoM. Retail sales rose by a solid 1.9% m/m, with clothing and motor vehicles having the largest share. Manufacturing in Japan remains an area of ​​concern; however, consumption looks good and is indeed on track to recover. EUR/USD The euro pair fell in the morning session from levels above 1.06 to levels around 1.0585. In the European session, the EUR/USD pair rose significantly above 1.0620. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0615. However, deteriorating market sentiment seems to be limiting the pair's gains for now as the focus shifts to the Conference Board's US consumer confidence survey. The consumer price index (CPI) in France rose to 7.2% y/y in flash estimates in February from 7% in January. Similarly, the annual CPI in Spain rose to 6.1% from 5.9% in the same period. After stronger-than-expected inflation figures from major eurozone economies, markets are almost fully pricing in the European Central Bank's (ECB) final interest rate at 4%, down from 3.75% last week, with hawkish ECB betting helping the euro hold its ground. GBP/USD The cable pair in the Asian session maintained a downward trend and in its decline headed to the level of 1.2028. The European session provided a positive impulse for GBP/USD and the pair rose above 1.2090. The pound pair managed to break above the 1.21 level but failed to hold and is currently trading below that level at 1.2098. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced late Monday that he had reached an agreement with the European Union to replace the Northern Ireland Protocol with the Windsor Framework. While it's too early to tell whether these developments could have a lasting impact on sterling's valuation and the Bank of England's (BOE) policy outlook, the initial market reaction helped the pair to gain momentum. UK Prime Minister Sunak also noted that MPs would vote on the new deal and that they would respect the results of the vote. Later in the session, several BOE decision makers will give speeches. AUD/USD In the Asian session, the Australian pair recorded a significant drop from the 0.6750 levels to the 0.6710 levels. In the European session, the AUD/USD pair is rising again and trading around 0.6730. Source: investing.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com

Technical outlook: The US dollar index slipped through 104.00 during the New York session on Tuesday before finding support. The index managed to pull back from the overnight lows and is seen to be trading close to 104.50 at this point in writing. Ideally, prices should stay below the 105.00 level as the bears prepare to drag the price lower towards 102.50 at least. The US dollar index is unfolding a larger-degree corrective wave structure, which began around 100.50 in early February. The projected targets are seen at around 106.50 in the near term, followed by 108.00. Within the proposed corrective rally, the index might have terminated its first wave close to 105.00 as seen on the 4H chart. If the above is correct, prices should stay below 105.00 and drag lower to 104.00 and 102.50 in the next few weeks. A drop below 104.00 will confirm the same and accelerate the move towards the 102.50-103.00 area. Also, note that 102.50 is the Fibonacci 0.618% of the recent rally between 100.50 and 105.00 levels, hence the probability for a bullish turn remains high. Trading idea: Potential short-term drop to 102.00, then resume higher Good luck!     Relevance up to 08:00 2023-03-29 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314426

Gold has been hot and cold as of late. After rallying to $340 an ounce since early November, the precious metal lost more than $100 of its value in February. The last month of the winter was its worst since June 2021. The XAUUSD sell-off was based on the strengthening U.S. dollar and the return of 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields to the 4% mark. Judging by Bank of America's forecasts of a 6% increase in the federal funds rate and Nordea Markets' forecasts of a 4.5% increase in the 10-year Treasury yield, gold's rebound at the turn of the winter and spring is limited. The precious metal entered 2023 in good spirits. Fears over an imminent recession and the growing popularity of disinflation were promising for the bulls on the XAUUSD. However, the October–January rally did not result in an inflow of capital to the ETFs, while the February sell-off forced investors to take money from them. Standard Chartered notes that by the end of the last month of winter, the outflow will amount to 20 tonnes, with 11 tonnes lost by specialized exchange-traded funds during the last four sessions. Not surprisingly, rising U.S. Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and force holders to get rid of it. At the same time, optimism prevails among the 30 experts participating in the LBMA survey. They forecast an average price of $1,860 an ounce for the precious metal in 2023, and the most ardent bulls see it at $2,025. Respondents believe the future dynamics of XAUUSD is based on three factors—the outlook for the dollar and inflation, as well as geopolitics. Currently, the dominant narrative in the market is "higher rates and a longer period of holding them at their peak." However, keep in mind that monetary tightening affects the economy with a time lag. The most aggressive increase in the federal funds rate in 10 years has not been fully accounted for, and if the Fed continues along these lines, it runs the risk of breaking something. Read next: Some Mcdonald's Locations Don't Promote Hip-Hop Stars' New Meal| FXMAG.COM Dynamics of gold and U.S. dollar The deterioration of U.S. macro statistics will bring back the topic of recession and the Fed's dovish turn to the market, which will lower Treasury yields, weaken the U.S. dollar and create a tailwind for XAUUSD. Nevertheless, weak data on consumer confidence and the purchasing managers' index from the Chicago Fed are unlikely to become a reliable source of weakness in the U.S. economy. Without statistics on the labor market and inflation, it is too early to talk about this. In this regard, the gold rally at the turn of winter and spring looks like a false start. The precious metal is clearly getting ahead of itself and can be punished for it. Technically, on the daily chart of gold, there was a rebound from the level of $1,807 per ounce mentioned in the previous article, which allowed us to form the longs. A failed resistance test at $1,835, $1,850 and $1,865 will allow us to take the profits and reverse. The recovery of the upward trend requires the growth of the precious metal above $1,880 per ounce.   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-03-06 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/336395

The dollar weakened and the Chinese yuan gained on Wednesday after Chinese manufacturing activity rose at the fastest pace since April 2012, while the euro gained after regional price data in Germany boosted inflation concerns. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also benefited from strong Chinese economic data that beat expectations, with the official Industrial Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 52.6 last month from 50.1 in January. Upbeat China PMI data showed that Chinese economic activity continued to gain momentum following the decision to reopen the economy in December. The situation sparked a rally in major Asian stock indices, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index opening in the red. USD/JPY The yen traded above 136.25 in the Asian session, but fell sharply below 136.00 in the European session. The USD/JPY pair has dropped significantly to 135.30 in the last hours. USD/JPY at the time of writing is just above 135.30 (135.3040). The Japanese yen (JPY) strengthened slightly after data released today showed the Manufacturing PMI (Feb) was better than expected. EUR/USD On Wednesday, the trade of the euro pair is significantly positive, the EUR/USD pair has been rising since the beginning of the day. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0670. Data released on Tuesday showed accelerating inflation in France and Spain, the eurozone's two largest economies, raising the European Central Bank's (ECB) expectations for interest rate hikes. The pair is taking advantage of the ECB's hawkish expectations and the significant weakness of the US dollar. All eyes are on German inflation and US ISM PMI data. Markets expect the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the European Central Bank's preferred measure of inflation, in Germany to fall to 9% yoy in February from 9.2% in January. If the annual HICP unexpectedly approaches or even exceeds January's value, the euro's initial reaction is likely to outpace its rivals. Markets are almost fully pricing in the ECB's final interest rate at 4% in 2023, and a strong inflation print from Germany should allow the ECB's hawkish bets to dominate the euro's valuation. Read next: Developer Vanke Is Selling 300 Million Shares To Allocate For The Proceeds To Debt Repayment| FXMAG.COM GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair is not doing as well as EUR/USD, despite rising to levels above 1.2080 in the Asian session. In the European session, the cable pair fell towards 1.2020, but rebounded and rose above 1.2050. Sterling rose marginally against a weaker dollar on Wednesday, trimming gains made earlier in the session after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said nothing had been decided in terms of whether interest rates would need to rise again. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reportedly told his MPs to give the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) time and space to study the details of the new deal. The recent UK-EU deal or "Windsor Framework" has given the pound some momentum but it has struggled to maintain said gains. The reasons for this may be partly because the economic impact of the deal is unlikely to be significant for the UK economy as it does not improve trading conditions between the rest of the UK and the EU. A recent poll by the Bank of England found Brexit no longer a key uncertainty for UK businesses. AUD/USD AUD/USD gains on Wednesday. The Aussie Pair fell significantly at the beginning of the day, but then rebounded and maintained its upward trend. The Australian pair is trading above 0.6775 at the time of writing. The Australian dollar fell below 67 cents after Q4 quarter-on-quarter GDP was 0.5% instead of the 0.8% forecast and compared to the previous 0.7%, which was revised up from 0.6%. The currency trimmed losses later in the day thanks to solid data from China. Annual GDP by the end of December was 2.7%, in line with expectations. Today's GDP figures come ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting next Tuesday. They are expected to raise their target cash rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.60%. If it does, it will be the tenth increase since it started in May last year. The latest inflation reading is well above the RBA target range of 2-3% at 7.8% year-on-year. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

The main component of the dollar's weakness yesterday was a report from China indicating that their manufacturing sector is growing strongly. It is an important component of China's economic recovery after its massive shutdown. Another factor putting bearish pressure on the dollar was the strength of the euro. Together, these fundamental events led to a 0.39% decline in the dollar. Also, in the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management, U.S. manufacturing data shows that inflation continues to rise. The ISM said on Wednesday that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 47.7% in February from 44.7% in January. These data coincided with the consensus forecast. The report also noted that activity in the manufacturing sector continues to be at its lowest level since May 2020, when the global economy was forced to stop. Values of such diffusion indices above 50% mean economic growth, and vice versa. The further away from 50%, higher or lower, the faster or slower the rate of change. The report said that the price index rose to 51.3%. This is the first time in four months that U.S. producer prices have begun to rise. Analysts say rising manufacturing prices could mean that the Federal Reserve will not be able to control inflation even as it continues to aggressively tighten monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 73.8% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points and 26.2% that the Fed will be more aggressive in raising rates by 50 basis points. Looking at the components of the report, the new orders index climbed to 47% from 42.5% in January. At the same time, the production index fell to 47.3% from the previous 48%. The labor market lost momentum, returning to a lower reading of 49.1% from 50.6% in January. On such mixed data, the dollar is still holding its former positions with small deviations, reinforcing itself with the yield of 10-year bonds. Yields on 10-year bonds topped 4% for the first time since October.   Relevance up to 08:00 2023-03-03 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/336525

Technical outlook: The US dollar index rallied through the 104.45 highs intraday on Thursday after carving a low at 102.72 earlier. The index is seen to be trading close to 104.35 at this point in writing as the bears prepare to drag the price lower again. The index is also facing the past support-turned-resistance zone around 104.30-40. The instrument is looking lower from here in the near term. The US dollar index has carved a larger-degree bearish boundary between 114.70 and 100.50 in the past several weeks. The same is being retraced since early February 2023. The index is expected to reach 106.50 at least in the next few weeks. As the corrective wave unfolds, a short decline towards 102.50-105.00 cannot be ruled out. The recent boundary being worked upon is between 100.50 and 105.00 and prices are expected to drag towards 103.25 in the near term. A potential remains for a drop through 102.50, which is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above rally. The bulls would be poised to be back in control thereafter. Ideally, prices should stay above 100.50 in the medium term. Read next: Twitter Employees Are Overburdened As Elon Musk Tries To Run Twitter With Fewer Staff| FXMAG.COM Trading idea: A potential near-term drop through 102.50 and then the rally will resume. Good luck!   Relevance up to 12:00 2023-03-30 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/314677

February proved a counter-trend month in FX markets, where firm US activity and price data saw the dollar reclaim a third of its losses since last October. March looks set to be a mixed month for FX, where presumably a hawkish Fed can keep the dollar supported a little further. It looks like the broader dollar bear trend will have to take a short raincheck In this article In data we trust Further adjustments to FX forecasts   Shutterstock U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell In data we trust Dollar strength in February was really a function of incoming data rather than central bank speak. In fact, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell proudly started the month by saying that the broad disinflation trend had started – a view quickly shelved by the market after the strong January releases of US jobs and core PCE price data. Will February’s dollar gains be quickly reversed? There is a scenario where US activity data reverses lower this month from inflated January levels – those high readings driven by warmer weather and aggressive seasonal adjustment factors. And should the housing slowdown start to feed into official rental statistics, core PCE could reverse lower too. Yet the reason we doubt investors are ready to jump back into short dollar positions is the 22 March FOMC meeting. Here, the Fed will have little choice but to sound hawkish. And some upward revisions to the Dot Plot fed funds expectation should support the recent hawkish re-pricing of the Fed curve. We have mentioned this several times before, but a severely inverted US yield curve is not conducive to the kind of benign dollar decline that seemed likely in January. And central banks tightening into slowdowns will generate greater headwinds for risk assets. This again is not a particularly positive story for pro-cyclical currencies such as the euro – at least in the immediate future. Further adjustments to FX forecasts Last month, we raised our EUR/USD profile and had felt that the second quarter could be the best quarter of the year for this pair. Sticky US inflation suggests that clear signs of disinflation may not emerge until the summer. We are therefore revising lower our EUR/USD forecast for the second quarter, where we now see volatility in a 1.05-1.10 range depending on the data. And we are pushing back our 1.15 EUR/USD forecast to the fourth quarter when our macro and rate strategy teams now look for the substantial compression in two-year EUR:USD swap differentials – a key driver of the spot rate. Elsewhere, the Chinese recovery will continue to help the commodity FX bloc – though broader gains in this segment will not emerge until the second half when the Fed has greater confidence in disinflation. And one of the best-performing currencies in the world should remain the Mexican peso. This has been buoyed by some of the highest risk-adjusted yields and Mexico’s position as a major beneficiary of ‘friendshoring’ direct investment trends.   TagsFX Dollar     Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Substantial corporate supply in February Record-breaking supply YTD thus far at US$171bn • Substantial corporate supply in February, totalling a significant US$126bn. This is the highest monthly supply since March 2021, jumping just slightly higher than March 2022. After US$45bn supplied in January, YTD supply thus far this year sums up to US$171bn. This is significantly larger than previous years, with 2021’s US$140bn the next largest YTD figure. Redemptions were just US$47bn in February, meaning net supply amounted to US$79bn. As a result, net supply YTD is now at US$85bn. • The Healthcare sector saw the most supply last month with US$34bn, followed by US$28bn in TMT. The Utility sector and the Consumer sector also saw notable amounts with US$20bn and US$18bn respectively. Furthermore, a large portion of last month’s supply was longer out on the curve, with US$42bn in the 9-12yr maturity bucket and US$34bn in the 17yr+ maturity bucket. • Reverse Yankee supply totalled another €5.5bn in February, now €11bn for the year thus far. The cross-currency basis swap has tightened since October by about 15bp in the 5yr and 8bp in the 10yr. In addition, the cross-currency basis swap is also not that wide historically. At the same time, the USD EUR spread differential has widened, particularly on the 5yr, albeit marginally tighter on the past week. As a result, the 10yr area has opened up an even larger cost saving advantage for US issuers to issue in euro and swap back to USD. And this is now the case for the 5yr too. This creates an attractive cost saving advantage for Reverse Yankee supply. Financial supply was somewhat low in February, as Bank capital is most favoured • Financial supply was somewhat low at just US$20bn in February. This is marginally lower than previous years, which normally came closer to US$25-30bn. Furthermore, redemptions amounted to US$28bn in February, meaning last month’s net supply was negative at -US$8bn. Financial supply is now sitting at US$87bn on a YTD basis. This is lower than the US$104bn and US$136bn seen in 2021 and 2022 respectively but is closer to the US$91bn seen in 2020. • Interestingly, issuers focussed on Bank capital supply, as US$8bn AT1 and T2 supply came to the market, compared to just US$4bn in Bank senior. Although the reverse can be said about January, therefore on a YTD basis Bank senior supply totals US$59bn, while Bank capital amounts to US$12bn. Read the article on ING Economics Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

There is a few interesting things on the USDX 4 hour chart : 1. Bearish 123 pattern followed by the appearance of Ross Hook (RH). 2. Move inside the downside channel. 3. Move under the EMA 10. From those three things abobe seems like #USDX will continue the downside until if it manages to break below level 104,06. If this level successfully broken then #USDX has the potential to go downside up to the level 103,73 as the main target and the level 103,50 as the next target to be addressed as long as there is no upward correction passing through the level 104,97 because if this level successfully broken above then all the downward scenario that has been described before will cancel itself. (Disclaimer)   Relevance up to 04:00 2023-03-08 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/120767

Technical outlook: The US dollar index slipped below 104.00 in the early Asia session on Tuesday. After carving an intraday low of 103.78, the index is seen to be trading above 103.85 at this point in writing. Bears are looking inclined to drag lower toward 103.20-25 in the near term before finding some bids coming. The US dollar index has carved a meaningful larger degree bearish boundary between 114.70 and 100.50 in the past several weeks. Since then, the index has been retracing higher and is projected toward 106.50 at least. In fact, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the above bearish boundary is seen passing through 109.30, which could be the second target. The US dollar index has carved its first wave of the above corrective rally between 100.50 and 105.00. It is currently progressing lower towards 103.25 and up to 102.50 levels as the second wave unfolds. We can expect a rally toward 106.50 and 109.30 levels thereafter. Ideally, prices stay above 100.50 interim support. Trading plan: Potential near-term drop to 103.25 and 102.50 before the rally resumes. Good luck!     Relevance up to 08:00 UTC+2 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/315128

Investors got a double shot of hawkishness from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the US Senate yesterday. Powell Powell’s comments sent the rate hike expectations significantly up and wreaked havoc across the US treasury and equity markets and the US dollar. Data Moving forward, the next few data points will be VERY important in cementing the expectation of a 50bp hike at the March 21-22 FOMC meeting. Today, the ADP report and job openings data. JOLTS data would better soften this month, after last month’s booming figure of 11 mio.On Friday, February jobs report will be released. We’d better see an easing here as well after last month’s blowout half-a-million NFP read. Finally, the latest CPI update is due next Tuesday. And again, it’d better head sufficiently lower after last month’s disinflation disillusion. Fed If the fresh data doesn’t go where the Fed wants to see them, bigger rate hikes will be on the menu, and hope of soft-landing and easy disinflation could fade away. USD And with all the hawks in the air, the US dollar went straight up yesterday and there is no reason to bet on a softer US dollar for the next couple of days. The dollar will likely consolidate and extend gains against most majors. Bank of Canada Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to keep the rates unchanged at today’s monetary policy meeting. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:35 Powell the Hawk 4:07 Data Watch 5:48 FX update: USD up, EUR, AUD down 8:31 BoC to do nothing Ipek Ozkardeskaya  Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #Powell #testimony #inflation #jobs #economic #data #BoC #RBA #rate #decision #USD #AUD #EUR #CAD #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH

Making the case for international value investing—thoughts from Templeton Global Equity Group on why now’s the time to consider expanding one’s investment horizons. It seems to be common sense that if you are going to search for these unusually good bargains, you wouldn’t just search the United States … why not search everywhere? That’s what we’ve been doing for forty years. We search anywhere in the world. The post-global financial crisis (GFC) dominance of US equities has been completely unprecedented. Significant Underperformance Over a Generation International vs. US Equities: MSCI World ex-US vs. MSCI USARelative Total Returns, US Dollar, Since 1970   Sources: FactSet, MSCI, as of 31 December 2022. The MSCI World Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets countries. The MSCI USA Index is designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-cap segments of the US market. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI.   Across numerous valuation metrics, international equities are near the cheapest relative to US equities they have been in roughly two decades. Material Valuation Discount on a Variety of Measures Relative Valuation: MSCI ACWI ex-US vs. MSCI USA   Sources: FactSet, MSCI, as of 31 December 2022. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed markets countries (excluding the United States) and 24 emerging markets countries. The MSCI USA Index is designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-cap segments of the US market. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results.   There are many reasons why US equities have so dramatically outperformed, but the core explanation has to do with monetary policy. In response to the GFC—and then to the European sovereign debt crisis in 2011, the “taper tantrum” in 2013, “Volmageddon” in 2018, and the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 (to name a few recent episodes)—central bankers flooded the financial system with liquidity by pinning down interest rates and entering bond markets with the equivalent of a blank check. Globally, debt has soared by over US$100 trillion since the GFC. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) led the way in both size and timing, and the subsequent liquidity wave disproportionately buoyed US markets. Growth-oriented businesses in consumer and technology industries that comprise much of the US market capitalization were the main beneficiaries. But that was then. Today, we are experiencing the exact opposite of the conditions that formerly supported US growth stocks. Interest rates are rising to contain generationally high inflation that the years of aforementioned easy money had sparked. Western central banks have gone from providing liquidity to withdrawing liquidity. Economic growth is slowing as COVID-era stimulus programs roll off and companies and consumers alike contend with materially higher costs of capital. And asset bubbles everywhere—from  cryptocurrencies to real estate to profitless tech companies—are quickly deflating. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has prioritized inflation containment as the central bank’s top policy priority, and at a November 2022 press conference, indicated that the Fed still has “some ways to go” to fight inflation. While the pace of interest rate hikes looks to taper off in the quarters to come, Powell’s messaging suggests that rates will remain elevated and policy restrictive for the foreseeable future. As Exhibit 3 shows, this creates an environment that significantly favors international value strategies over the US growth strategies that led the last cycle. That’s not only because of the way that different discount rates impact the valuation of future cash flows (low rates ascribe more value to the longer-dated cash flows associated with growth stocks, while high rates put a premium on the present-day cash flows associated with value stocks). It’s also because higher interest rates make fundamentals more important. Higher Rates Favor International Value Over US Growth   Source: FactSet, MSCI, as of 31 December 2022. The MSCI ACWI ex -USA Value Index captures large- and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall value style characteristics across 22 developed and 24 emerging markets countries. The MSCI USA Growth Index captures large- and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall growth style characteristics in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results.   Increasingly, there will no longer be a free lunch for companies that can’t earn above their cost of capital or service their debt at higher interest rates. The unfashionable discipline of fundamental analysis is again becoming the key framework for successful investors, replacing the paradigms of narrative formation and growth extrapolation that fueled the bull market of the previous cycle. The US dollar: From headwind to tailwind? Not only can US investors buy international stocks at unusually cheap valuations, but they can use a strong currency to do it. While international equity valuations stand near 20-year lows, the US dollar is trading close to a 20-year high. But the dollar—one of the most crowded long trades for the better part of two years—now looks vulnerable. In late 2022, net speculative positioning was near all-time highs, technical indicators showed the dollar to be historically overbought, and the dollar’s premium to its long-term average real effective exchange rate (REER) was at record levels. The US Dollar: From Headwind to Tailwind ICE US Dollar Index (DXY)   Sources: FactSet, as of 31 December 2022. The ICE US Dollar Index futures contract is a leading benchmark for the international value of the US dollar. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results.   So, what could bring down king dollar? Fundamentals, for one. Interest rate differentials, relative economic strength (as measured by indicators like the purchasing manager’s index) and comparative current account positions have all supported the dollar but are now reaching extended levels that we believe are likely to mean revert over time. We have seen the dollar begin to roll over in late 2022/early 2023 and expect there will be more to come. Additional catalysts for a potential dollar decline include: A pause in rate hikes or eventual Fed policy pivot that lowers forward interest-rate expectations Slower growth in the United States Conflict resolution in Europe that supports the euro and reduces US dollar safe-haven demand We have long advocated investors use the strong dollar to buy discounted assets abroad. We believe this remains a good time to build positions, as an eventual downturn in the dollar is typically associated with the strong performance of ex-US assets. Conclusion There is plenty to think about as 2023 begins to unfold. Does recent strength represent a sustainable rebound, or just a bear market rally? When will inflation come down and how high will interest rates go? How will escalating geopolitical conflicts evolve? While we don’t have all the answers, we do believe it is an interesting time to be deploying capital to cheap international markets. WHAT ARE THE RISKS? All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors or general market conditions. Value securities may not increase in price as anticipated or may decline further in value. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability, and political developments. Investments in developing markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with their relatively small size and lesser liquidity. Actively managed strategies could experience losses if the investment manager’s judgment about markets, interest rates or the attractiveness, relative values, liquidity or potential appreciation of particular investments made for a portfolio, proves to be incorrect. There can be no guarantee that an investment manager’s investment techniques or decisions will produce the desired results.

The dollar hit multi-month highs against most other major currencies on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that US interest rates may need to rise even faster and higher than expected to contain stubborn inflation. Powell told lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday that recent economic data from the United States was better than expected, so the pace and size of future hikes may also need to be stepped up, pushing expectations for short-term US interest rates higher. Higher interest rates are good for the dollar as they improve its yield and investors seek safety while global stock markets fall. The dollar also surpassed its 200-day moving average against the yen for the first time this year. The dovish slope from the RBA contrasted with the hawkish Jerome Powell. USD/JPY The yen pair started the day trading above 137.40 and rising towards 137.90. After this increase, the USD/JPY pair began to fall. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair was above 137.40, but has the potential to fall further towards 137.30. On the Japanese front, during the final political meeting with Governor Haruhiko Kuroda this week, the Japanese central bank will maintain a very loose monetary policy. Data on Tuesday showed Japan's real wages fell by the most in nine years in January, as four-decade high inflation erodes Japan's purchasing power. EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair started trading above 1.0545, but quickly started a decline towards 1.0530. After this decline, the EUR/USD pair started rising towards 1.0545 and kept trading in the 1.0540-1.545 range. At the time of writing, papra has dropped to 1.0540 and is now at 1.0537. German data released today showed that retail sales weakened more than expected, while industrial production rose sharply, easily beating forecasts. Moreover, the hawkish tone of Powell's comments also seems to have an impact on expectations of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB). According to Reuters, markets see a 65% probability that the ECB's final interest rate will be 4.25% this year, compared to a 4.00% final interest rate last week alone. The ECB's hawkish bets could help the euro limit losses in the short term. GBP/USD The cable pair started trading above 1.1825 but similarly to the euro then fell. After falling to the level of 1.1810, the GBP/USD pair rebounded and rose towards 1.1840. After breaking above 1.1845, the pound pair fell back towards 1.1830. The pound reacted negatively to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's more aggressive guidance during yesterday's appearance before the Senate Banking Committee. UK OIS markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis point (BoE) rate hike for the first time since February 27. While BoE expectations are hawkish, the policy divergence is more pronounced than ever with CME Group's FedWatch tool pointing to a 75% probability of a 50 bp rate hike at the next Fed meeting. AUD/USD The movement of the Australian pair is similar to that of the pound-euro pair. After falling to the level of 0.6570, the AUD/USD pair broke again and broke above 0.66, but did not hold and fell to the level of 0.6698. The Australian dollar fell to a four-month low on Wednesday as diverging interest rate expectations between the US and Australia sent local yields to their biggest discount to government bonds in nearly four decades. Source: finance.yahoo.com, investing.com

As it becomes increasingly clear to financial markets that inflation is proving far stickier than most had felt at the start of the year, our Global Head of Markets Chris Turner says a return to the disinflation and weaker dollar narrative will have to wait   FX Talking: Dollar bear trend takes a rain check What can be expected for FX over the month ahead? The main focus in the G10 space will be on US activity data and upcoming major central bank meetings, while continued strength for the US dollar and key local stories also remain in the spotlight. Find all the latest details from our team here: FX Talking: Dollar bear trend takes a rain check   Read this article on THINK TagsUS FX Asia Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

US stocks settled lower in a volatile session as traders digested a cooling wage/ robust job growth report and SVB contagion risks. This was supposed to be an easy Friday with one massive jobs report, but SVB, a large bank with exposure across a range of sectors failed and triggered distress for several other smaller banks.  At the end of the day, traders are seeing this cooling/hot payroll report as confirmation that Fed policy is restrictive and that the their tightening work is almost done.  If we didn’t have SVB’s failure and contagion risk the case for a half-point rate hike would be valid. The focus will fall on SVB contagion risks and Tuesday’s inflation report.  As long as we don’t see a scorching hot inflation report, the Fed should continue with its quarter rate point hiking pace.   US data The US economy added 311, 000 jobs in February, more than both the consensus estimate of 225,000 and the whisper number of 250,000.  The NFP report had a strong headline beat, but the rest of the report supported the idea that the labor market is ready to cool.  Wage pressures came in much softer than forecasts and the unemployment rate rose from 3.4% to 3.6%.  Fed rate hike odds went on a rollercoaster ride post NFP as traders now have the March 22nd meeting as a coin flip between a 25bp rise or half-point increase and are also pricing in a rate cut by the end of the year.  The peak is in place and it seems traders got a preview about how this tightening cycle will start to drag down economic growth.  SVB SVB Financial Capital’s demise is bad news for many small tech companies as they were a go-to lender in silicon valley.  After Venture Capitalists decided to pull their money, SVB ended up losing ~$2 billion from selling securities as they rushed to secure funds, which is what triggered this bank run.     Startups and debt refinancing are some of the biggest financial risks that traders are analyzing, but this pressure on small banks appears it should remain contained and not weigh on the big banks. The KBW bank index had its worst drop since early in the pandemic and the contagion fears dragged down Comerica, Keycorp, and US Bancorp.  Signature Bank Investors are skeptical to hold anything crypto related in this market environment.  Banks vulnerable to financial instability risk and crypto exposure are easy targets and that has some traders eyeing Signature Bank. There are not a lot of publicly trade banks with significant crypto exposure, so the ones that have some are seeing selling pressure.  Oil Crude prices are rallying after a mixed jobs report sent the dollar lower as optimism grew that the Fed won’t have to be as aggressive with the end of its rate hiking campaign. Oil is quietly rallying as parts of Wall Street enter panic mode following small banking contagion risks.  It appears that parts of the economy are breaking and that is good news for bets that the Fed won’t have to accelerate their tightening pace.   Gold Gold is surging as Fed rate hike bets get scaled down and as SVB contagion risks trigger some safe-haven buying. The bond market is now starting to price in rate cuts by the end of the year and that is triggering a major collapse with yields.  The two-year yield posted its biggest two day decline since 2008.  Gold is becoming everyone’s favorite trade again and that could continue as liquidity risk concerns won’t be quickly answered for that corner on Wall Street.    Bitcoin All the headlines just turned bearish for Bitcoin.  The list of bearish crypto drivers are plentiful: Fallout from SVB as many crypto companies depend on small banks, mining might be harder if the White House pushes through a new 30% tax, NY crypto crackdown now covers KuCoin and after Huobi token’s flash crash.  Bitcoin was in a comfortable trading range and that just broke, which has many investors nervous that we could see a retest of the October lows. Bitcoin fell below the $20,000 level and has many traders nervous over what might happen over the weekend.  Crypto volatility appears to be back as Bitcoin’s range has been breached.  The $18,400 level is key support, but if that breaks momentum selling could look to target a retest of the October lows.   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.  

On the 4-hour chart #USDX you can see the emergence of a Bearish 123 pattern followed by the appearance of several Bearish Ross Hook (RH) and price movements that move below the EMA 10 so it is clear that in the near future USDX will try to test and break below the 103.50 level if This level is successfully broken down, so the next level to aim for is the 102.56 level. However, if on its way to the target levels described earlier, #USDX suddenly experiences a significant upward correction movement to break above the 105.24 level, then a decline scenario is certain. that was just described will be invalid and automatically cancel by itself. (Disclaimer)   Relevance up to 03:00 2023-03-14 UTC+1 This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/121113

The dollar fell on Monday on heightened expectations the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive with monetary policy as authorities stepped in to limit the fallout from the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The U.S. government announced several measures early in the Asian trading day, saying all SVB customers will have access to their deposits starting on Monday. Tomorrow’s US CPI report will make things interesting should inflation come in higher than expected, making the Fed’s task that much harder. USD/JPY The yen pair started the new week at the level of 134.8590 and in the first trading hours it was in the range of 134.25-134.75. USD/JPY then started a dip towards 133.75 but rebounded back to near 134.75. In the European session, USD/JPY fell again, but this time towards 133.00. At the time of writing, the yen pair is trading around 133.40. Concerns about the imposition of a global economic action continue to weigh on investor sentiment, which in turn favors a safe haven for the Japanese yen (JPY) and puts some downward pressure on the major currency. Both added further fueled by recent Chinese volume data, which appear to have left domestic demand weak and lowered on a strong recovery in the world's second-largest economy. However, any significant pullback in USD/JPY still seems elusive amid expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will remain dovish to support a fragile domestic economy. In fact, the new BoJ governor, Kazuo Ueda, recently stressed the need to maintain ultra-loose policy settings and said the central bank is not aiming for a quick turnaround from a decade of massive easing. Bets were further raised after the release of the final GDP printout, which showed Japan's economy narrowly avoided a technical recession in the final months of 2022. EUR/USD The euro pair started the day at 1.0686, but started falling. After the decline, the EUR/USD pair gained momentum and exceeded 1.07. In the following hours, the EUR/USD pair traded in the 1.0720-1.0730 range. In the European session, the euro fell again below 1.07 and at the time of writing trades above 1.0670. EURUSD rose overnight to a new monthly high of 1.0737 as the USD sell-off continued. At the European open, EURUSD pulled back slightly, flirting again with 1.0700 as markets scrutinize the SVB news and emergency measures taken by the US authorities to ensure confidence in the banking sector. Regulators have confirmed that the Bank's customers will have access to their deposits on Monday, while launching a new facility to give banks access to emergency funds.  EURUSD continues to look more favorable going forward as market participants dropped expectations for a 50bps hike by the Federal Reserve at its March meeting on Friday. This is in contrast to the European Central Bank (ECB), whose interest rate decision will be taken on Thursday, with consensus and market participants favoring a 50 basis point hike. GBP/USD GBP/USD started the day at 1.2077 and the first moves were similar to the euro. In the Asian session, the pair of the cable crossed the level of 1.2125, but did not maintain momentum and started a downtrend that is still ongoing. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is below 1.2075. AUD/USD The movement of the Australian pair is like the euro. AUD/USD started trading at 0.6633 and then fell towards 0.6600. After the decline, the Aussie pair rose and for the next hours of trading in the Asian session it was in the range of 0.6660-0.6670. In the European session, the AUD/USD pair started a downward move towards 0.6610. At the time of writing, the trading level of the Aussie pair was below 0.6620. The Australian dollar gained support on Monday morning after continued concerns over the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. The result was a dovish overestimation of Fed interest rates. Money markets have drastically reduced the potential for a 50bps towards a 25bps increment. Source: finanace.yahoo.com, investing.com

The British pound has reversed directions after an impressive rally that saw GBP/USD climb 370 points. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2154, down 0.24%. US dollar recovers The collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on Friday sent the financial markets into turmoil on Monday. US bank stocks declined sharply, while safe-haven gold powered higher. The US dollar retreated against the major currencies and the 2-year Treasury yield fell almost a full point. Tuesday has brought better news, as the markets appear to have settled down. The US dollar has regrouped and is higher against the majors. There is an uneasy calm in the air, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that this latest crisis is behind us. Investors are on alert and will be very sensitive to new developments and any negative news could renew market volatility. The Fed and Treasury Department acted quickly to protect depositors and President Biden sent a reassuring message at an impromptu television address, but the collapse of the 16th largest lender in the US means it’s unlikely to be “business as usual” for some time. It was just a week ago that Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish testimony on the Hill raised expectations of the Fed delivering a 50-bp increase at the March 22 meeting. Those expectations have vanished into smoke, with the markets now expecting a 25-bp hike, with an outside chance of a pause.  We could see further market repricing after today’s CPI report, with headline CPI expected to fall to 6.0%, down from 6.4%. In the UK, the employment report was within expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, shy of the estimate of 3.8%. Hourly earnings fell to 5.7%, as expected, down from an upwardly revised 6%. The pound hasn’t reacted to the release and the data is unlikely to change minds at the Bank of England, which is expected to raise rates by 25 bp at the March 23 meeting.   GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2113 earlier in the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.2294 There is support at 1.1984 and 1.1854 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.  

FX Daily: Markets steady ahead of final push on the debt deal After a long weekend in many parts of the world, FX markets are returning to mull progress on a US debt ceiling deal. This now has to pass the committee stage in the House and will probably go to a House vote tomorrow. Progress on the deal will allow investors to focus on sticky US inflation – likely seeing the dollar hold onto recent gains.   USD: Progress on debt deal allows markets to focus on another Fed hike After long weekends in many parts of the world, FX markets are returning to some progress on the US debt ceiling. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached a two-year deal. That deal will be assessed by the House Rules Committee today and, if approved, will likely go to a vote in the House tomorrow. Both Democrat and Republican leaders feel they have the votes to get the deal through Congress – although at times like these, there may be a few holdout politicians who like their day in the sun.   Progress on the debt deal has seen some declines in yields for US Treasury Bills maturing in June, although it has had little impact on FX markets. We said last week that FX markets had already been trading in a de-stressed fashion on the assumption a deal would go through. Assuming there are no hiccups in the deal's passage, FX markets can return to the most pressing issue of sticky inflation and what central bankers plan to do about it.   Last Friday's US data set made the firm case for one additional 25bp Fed hike – now fully priced by the time of the 26 July meeting. Money markets price a 63% chance of that hike coming earlier at the 14 June meeting – a meeting which will likely see the Fed have to raise its inflation forecasts. The default view, therefore, seems to be that the dollar can hold its recent gains at least into that June meeting. That is unless US price and activity data start to fall away sharply.   On that front, this week sees US JOLTS job opening data (Wed), ADP (Thurs.), and the May NFP (Friday). Barring any major downside miss in these releases, it looks like the market will support another 25bp hike from the Fed, continued inversion in the US yield curve, and a strong/stronger dollar.   DXY looks comfortable above 104.00 and could extend recent gains to 104.65 or even 105.30 this week.    

FX Daily: Data sensitivity at its highest A jump in US jobless claims sent the dollar lower across the board yesterday, confirming how FX markets have an extremely elevated sensitivity to data in this moment. Quiet calendars in the US and eurozone mean we could see EUR/USD stabilise, but watch Canada’s jobs numbers. Elsewhere, higher inflation has endorsed our call for more Norges Bank tightening.   USD: Jobless claim jump hit the dollar Currency markets continue to show very elevated sensitivity to data: yesterday, the increase in US weekly jobless claims to 261k against a median estimate of 235k sent the dollar weaker across the board. Lay off numbers have been rising consistently over the past few months and we could now start to see those finally trickle through to the initial jobless claims data. We must remember that there is always a period of time between lay off announcements and the actual job being cut and often no claim can be made until all severance payments have been finalised.   The Fed funds futures curve shows that markets have only marginally scaled back rate expectations after the Bank of Canada's surprise hike triggered a fresh round of hawkish bets. There are currently 7bp priced in for June, and 19bp for July, around 3bp lower (for both meetings) compared to Wednesday.   Yet, if we exclude CAD – which is trading in tandem with USD at the moment – the dollar fell around 0.7%-1.0% against all G10 currencies yesterday. It is a testament to that big FX sensitivity to data and rate expectations, and one of the reasons behind our bearish USD view for the second half of the year, when we expect both data and rates to turn negative for the greenback.   The lack of data releases in the US may offer some stabilisation to the dollar around current levels today (hovering around the 103.50 handle in DXY). Elsewhere, it’s worth keeping a close eye on Canadian jobs numbers, now that a July back-to-back hike is a tangible possibility. Consensus is looking at a solid 21k headline read, but with unemployment ticking higher from 5.0% to 5.1% and wage growth cooling off marginally, in line with what we saw in the US May jobs figures.    

FX Daily: June tells us the dollar is not the only game in town Despite relatively low levels of volatility, June has so far seen some pretty large spot FX moves in both the G10 and emerging market space. These moves seem to reflect a growing conviction of a soft landing in the global economy and a more hawkish view across the G10 central banks outside of the US. Look out for inflation surveys and central bank speakers today.   USD: Two factors weighing on the dollar We have recently been talking about inverted yield curves and late-cycle dollar strength. Looking at USD/JPY, that seems a fair comment given that it is trading not far from its recent highs and the US 2-10 yield curve is inverting even further (now -94bp) on the back of a hawkish Federal Reserve. However, this month in the G10 space, the dollar is only stronger against the yen and is anywhere from 2% (Swiss franc) to 6% (Australian dollar) weaker against the rest of the G10 currencies. This looks like a function of two factors: The first is the increasing hawkishness shown by the rest of the central banks in the G10 space. Inflation forecasts and expected tightening cycles are being revised higher across the board and in some cases more aggressively than in the US. This includes recent surprise hikes from Australia and Canada, a very hawkish ECB meeting yesterday, and very aggressive expectations for Bank of England rate hikes. The second is the bullish global risk environment. Investors are cutting allocations to cash and look to be putting money to work in bonds, equities and emerging markets. Against all the odds the MSCI world equity index is up 14% year-to-date and fund managers are surprisingly suffering from a Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) on a good rally in benchmark risk assets. Notably, USD/CNH reversed lower yesterday despite the People's Bank of China rate cut – suggesting that investors are instead more interested in the prospect of upcoming Chinese fiscal stimulus.   Of course, data remain crucially important and will determine whether central banks need to keep rates tighter for longer or can perhaps start to consider rate cuts – as is the case in some parts of Eastern Europe and potentially Latin America too. But that is ING's central call for the second half of the year – that US disinflation will become more evident through the remainder of this year and that a less hawkish Fed will allow the dollar to sell off. Back to the short term, the dollar may well stay soft against most currencies except the Japanese yen, with the Bank of Japan remaining resolutely dovish. Here, yen-funded carry trades will remain popular. For today's data, we have the University of Michigan inflation expectations. This occasionally moves markets and any meaningful drop could nudge the dollar lower. Equally, we have three Fed speakers, generally from the hawkish end of the spectrum.  We think the mood to put money to work probably dominates and barring any big upside surprise in US inflation expectations, DXY can probably edge down to the 102.00 area, if not below.

FX Daily: Dollar trapped between inverted curves and rallying equities There has been little follow-through from the dollar selling we saw late last week. Currently, global markets present a curious picture of steeply inverting yield curves – which occasionally forewarn recession – but bid equity markets. Which market has it right? We tend to think the dollar will come lower in the second half, but again timing is everything.   USD: Dollar trapped in the middle of inverted curves and risk rally FX markets are relatively quiet following yesterday's public holiday in the US. Risk assets are marginally softer after Chinese authorities only cut the 5-year Loan Prime Rate by 10bps – disappointing those looking for more aggressive support from lower mortgage rates to China's property sector. USD/CNH pushing back up to 7.18 has kept USD/Asia bid and provides a mildly bullish undercurrent to the dollar as the European session gets underway. Softening the lens a little we see the dollar trapped between two stories and reflected in its 2% gains against the yen and 2% losses against sterling and commodity currencies over the last month. Those two stories are: i) steeply inverting yield curves as central banks try to squeeze inflation out of economies and ii) rallying equities on the view that recessions will be mild (perhaps because of low unemployment). Our big picture call here is that US disinflation comes through in the third quarter, bearish US yield curve inversion switches to bullish steepening, and the dollar falls more broadly. But we are not there yet. Back to the short term, there is only second-tier US data today in the form of housing starts and we have the Fed's James Bullard speaking at 1230CET today. He is one of the most hawkish Fed governors, but not an FOMC voter this year. Presumably, he may shed some light on why the Fed could hike by another 50bp this year (consistent with the latest Dot Plots), but that may not move the dollar needle much. DXY is to trade well within a 102.00-103.00 range and expect USD/JPY to continue nudging higher. It increasingly looks as though Japanese authorities will be called into FX intervention again near the 145 level.

FX Daily: Powell set to sail FX markets into the next data releases Fed Chair Powell starts two days of Congress testimony today. Based on last week’s post-FOMC comments, we suspect he will focus on pushing back against rate cut expectations. A successful hawkish message could give the dollar some support into the next key releases. In the UK, another inflation surprise leaves few doubts about a hawkish BoE hike tomorrow.   USD: Expect Powell to focus on rate cuts, not rate hikes Fed Chair Jerome Powell will face Congress today and tomorrow (House Financial Services Panel first, Senate Banking Panel then) and will be extensively questioned about the path of monetary policy in light of recent inflation and jobs developments. It is a good opportunity to fine-tune a policy message that appeared slightly muffled by a rather aggressive set of Dot Plot projections, which are still largely disregarded by the market: the OIS curve price in 24bp to a peak, while the median Dot Plot signalled two more rate hikes this year. Powell himself seemed reluctant to put excessive weight on Dot Plot projections last week, and instead focused on pushing back against rate cut expectations. We would be surprised to hear anything less resolute on easing speculation at this round of Congress testimony. Remember Powell said rate cuts are “a couple years out” last Wednesday: at the moment, the difference between the 3 months (peak rate) and the 1-year OIS implied yield is -64bp, which is the magnitude of easing currently expected in the next twelve months. Should Powell successfully force a hawkish retuning of rate cut expectations around the one-year tenor, expect some dollar gains across the board. As discussed in yesterday’s daily note, the dollar appears trapped between the supportive highly inverted yield curve and the unsupportive rally in equities. Stock price sensitivity to the prospect of monetary easing down the road means, however, that Powell testimony can have important implications for equities too. A successful rate-cut pushback this week by Powell can offer the dollar some support in the near term, but the greenback is set to remain overwhelmingly more sensitive to data as market pricing remains un-anchored from the Fed’s Dot Plot projections for the next rate hikes. Still, the first week of July is when we’ll get the most important set of data releases in the US, so Powell’s words can determine whether DXY will end the quarter above or below the 102.00 mark.

FX Daily: The perks of an inverted yield curve The Bank of England surprised markets with a 50bp rate hike on Thursday, and we think a reserve currency like the pound may be kept afloat by a sharply inverted domestic yield curve. This is what is happening with the dollar, which has rebounded despite hawkish surprises elsewhere. Today, the focus will be on PMI releases.   USD: Powell talking up the Dot Plot The dollar found some support yesterday and this morning despite two major hawkish surprises in Europe that might have lured investors further away from the greenback and fuelled a rotation to European currencies. What has likely offered backing to the dollar has been the hawkish message pushed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the two days of Congress testimonies. While the overall rhetoric has been nearly identical to last week’s press conference, Powell seemed to add more weight on the near-term prospects of further rate hikes compared to last week – implicitly encouraging markets to close the gap with the Dot Plot projections. For now, that gap is still present. The Fed Fund rate curve is fully pricing in one hike by November, but there are only 18bp factored in by July and – above all – no signs of the other hike included in the latest median FOMC projections. It is clear that investors are awaiting the cue from data to align with the Dot Plot, but Powell’s hawkish rhetoric is a warning signal against jumping too early on a bearish dollar trend given the risks of a further inversion of the US yield curve. Data-wise, the focus will be on PMIs across developed countries today. While being of secondary relevance to the ISM in the US, we can see some higher-than-normal market impact given the elevated market sensitivity to data at this juncture. 102/103 appears to be the holding-pattern range for DXY at the moment and we could see that hold into next week. USD/JPY has continued to press higher, with a dovish Bank of Japan still leaving the yen more vulnerable than other G10 peers. We are now close to the 145 area, where Japanese officials started FX intervention last September.

FX Daily: Inflation remains the market’s priority Events in Russia have had little discernible impact on the FX market so far. Instead, the hot topic of high inflation and what policymakers are prepared to do about it remains the market's priority. This will be at the top of the agenda at this week's ECB's annual symposium in Sintra. Expect another mixed week in FX markets and possible BoJ intervention.   USD: Geopolitics has yet to make its mark Events in Russia this weekend have so far had very little impact on global financial markets. There has been no flight to quality rush into the short end of the US Treasury market (two-year yields are down only 2bp since Friday), crude oil failed to hold onto some very modest gains in Asia, and Asian equity price action was muted. In FX, it is hard to discern any flight to quality into the dollar, nor discernible outperformance of defensive currencies like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. The muted response probably reflects i) a lack of clarity over what comes next after this challenge to President Putin's authority and ii) financial markets having already experienced a year of a stronger dollar and higher energy prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.   Instead, the market is very much focused on inflation. Both central bankers and governments are under fire for having kept monetary and fiscal policy respectively too loose for too long. These (or at least monetary policy anyway) will be the hot topic for this week at the ECB annual symposium in Sintra. Many of the G7 central bank governors are in attendance and presumably will deliver a hawkish message, similar to the one that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered to Congress last week.   This means that yield curves look to remain very inverted as investors assess the degree of looming recession and that the dollar will stay strong against those currencies without a monetary defence – i.e., USD/JPY stays bid. In addition to Powell's comment at Sintra on Wednesday, the US highlight this week will be the release of the core PCE inflation data for May. This is released on Friday. Expected at 0.4% month-on-month, another high reading for core inflation suggests there can be no let-up in the Fed's hawkishness.   DXY can probably bounce around in a 102.00-103.00 range this week, while USD/JPY should edge closer to the 145 intervention zone.  

FX Daily: Riksbank needs to show the krona some love The central message coming from this week's Sintra conference is that economies are holding up better than expected, the decline in inflation has been frustratingly slow and more tightening needs to be done. Expect the dollar to stay bid ahead of what should be another high US core inflation print tomorrow. Elsewhere, the Riksbank is expected to hike 25bp.   USD: No reason to fight dollar strength this week Central bank communication at this week's Sintra conference in Portugal has stayed pretty hawkish. The core message seems to be that low unemployment rates have allowed economies to withstand large tightening cycles reasonably well, meaning that inflation has not fallen as much as expected. Expectations for the duration and terminal rates for tightening cycles are being revised higher. This is most credibly being done in the US, where the economy appears to be outperforming. This is allowing the dollar to stay quite bid - especially against those currencies without much/any interest rate difference such as the Japanese yen and the Chinese renminbi. On the latter, policymakers are gently trying to fight the steady move higher in USD/CNY by setting lower fixings. However, they may be forced to cut the required reserve on FX deposits as they did last September if they want to send a stronger message of displeasure over renminbi depreciation. And as we have seen over the years, a steady uptrend in USD/CNY is not conducive to an overall bear trend in the dollar. Back to the Fed. If central banks are increasingly data-dependent, what's next in store for the Fed? The most important data point of the week will be tomorrow's release of the core PCE deflator for May expected at 0.3/0.4% month-on-month. Presumably, investors will be a little long dollars going into that release. Before that, however, we today see the weekly initial jobless claims figures. These have recently settled at higher levels. Any big upside surprise here could knock the dollar intra-day on the view that tighter policy is finally easing up labour supply - a key shoe to drop in the fight against inflation.  DXY looks biased to 103.30/35 and possibly 103.65 - as long as initial claims do not spike higher today.

FX Daily: Dollar late to the party Treasuries are hitting key levels on big US data surprises, but the dollar is not finding real support. The dollar may be mirroring some lingering reluctance to align with the dot plot’s two hikes, but market conditions point to a stronger greenback in the near term, barring a substantial downside surprise in payrolls today. Watch jobs numbers in Canada too.   USD: Surprisingly soft The large and unexpected jump to almost 500k in ADP private payroll numbers yesterday left clear marks across asset classes. Despite some recovery later in the session, US equities took a hit, and European ones closed with a nearly 3.0% loss. Treasuries are now trading around the two key benchmarks: 5.0% for the 2Y and 4.0% for the 10Y after a disastrous session for bonds. This would appear to be the perfect recipe for a substantial dollar rally, which hasn’t materialised however, and we are observing instead some dollar selling this morning. Indeed, the dollar had already moved in advance of yesterday’s release as the minutes had offered clear hawkish hints on Wednesday. Incidentally, markets still appear unconvinced to fully price in two rate hikes by the Fed despite the strong ADP (which arguably aren’t hard data, and have been misleading at times) and ISM services figures. The Fed funds curve has not shifted particularly higher, with the peak rate still seen at 36bp from here, so 14bp short of dot plot projections. In a way, the dollar might still be mirroring that lingering market pricing-dot plot gap. At the same time, the market backdrop does seem to point at dollar strength at this juncture, as we doubt this morning’s mild USD correction will have legs unless US payrolls released later today move in the direction of ADP figures and surprise on the downside. The consensus for the headline jobs number is 230k, but may be higher after the strong ADP read. Unemployment is also expected to tick lower to 3.6% and some focus will, as usual, fall on wage growth. Barring major disappointments, it should not take much to keep the Fed’s hawkish narrative going, and markets should have room to keep inching closer to the pricing in two rate hikes. The path for a more supported dollar in the near term appears to be the most obvious one, in our view, and a return above 104.00 in DXY in the coming days looks likely.

FX Daily: Dollar late to the party Treasuries are hitting key levels on big US data surprises, but the dollar is not finding real support. The dollar may be mirroring some lingering reluctance to align with the dot plot’s two hikes, but market conditions point to a stronger greenback in the near term, barring a substantial downside surprise in payrolls today. Watch jobs numbers in Canada too.   USD: Surprisingly soft The large and unexpected jump to almost 500k in ADP private payroll numbers yesterday left clear marks across asset classes. Despite some recovery later in the session, US equities took a hit, and European ones closed with a nearly 3.0% loss. Treasuries are now trading around the two key benchmarks: 5.0% for the 2Y and 4.0% for the 10Y after a disastrous session for bonds. This would appear to be the perfect recipe for a substantial dollar rally, which hasn’t materialised however, and we are observing instead some dollar selling this morning. Indeed, the dollar had already moved in advance of yesterday’s release as the minutes had offered clear hawkish hints on Wednesday. Incidentally, markets still appear unconvinced to fully price in two rate hikes by the Fed despite the strong ADP (which arguably aren’t hard data, and have been misleading at times) and ISM services figures. The Fed funds curve has not shifted particularly higher, with the peak rate still seen at 36bp from here, so 14bp short of dot plot projections. In a way, the dollar might still be mirroring that lingering market pricing-dot plot gap. At the same time, the market backdrop does seem to point at dollar strength at this juncture, as we doubt this morning’s mild USD correction will have legs unless US payrolls released later today move in the direction of ADP figures and surprise on the downside. The consensus for the headline jobs number is 230k, but may be higher after the strong ADP read. Unemployment is also expected to tick lower to 3.6% and some focus will, as usual, fall on wage growth. Barring major disappointments, it should not take much to keep the Fed’s hawkish narrative going, and markets should have room to keep inching closer to the pricing in two rate hikes. The path for a more supported dollar in the near term appears to be the most obvious one, in our view, and a return above 104.00 in DXY in the coming days looks likely.

FX Daily: Short-term dollar bearishness remains unconvincing We remain a bit reluctant to chase the dollar lower. The greenback still has to catch up with recent market dynamics – higher US rates in particular – and the scope for further dovish repricing in the USD curve is not broad. This week’s US CPI is undoubtedly a risk event, but we don’t see a EUR/USD move above 1.1000 as being very sustainable just yet.   USD: Room for a rebound Last week saw the dollar trade on the soft side amid mixed data from the US. The latest and most important release, the US payrolls figures for June, came in a bit weaker than expected, but the jobs market likely remains too tight for the Fed to backtrack on a July hike. After all, the headline print was solid (+209k) and with wages remaining high and unemployment moving lower, there aren’t many strong dovish arguments to be extrapolated from the June jobs report. We are still reluctant to chase the dollar lower from this point – not particularly because we expect incoming data (US CPI above all) to surprise on the upside, but because the dollar still has to catch up with some recent market dynamics. Front-end US treasuries arrested their selloff, but remain very close to 5.0%, and 10Y UST are at the 4.0% benchmark level. Equities have also shown some signs of instability since the start of July. All of this should, in theory, put the dollar in a solid position to rebound from the current levels – especially given there isn’t much room for a further dovish re-pricing in the USD swap curve. That currently factors in 35bp of tightening to the peak, still short of the 50bp signalled by the Fed in the latest dot plot. The big risk event for the dollar this week is the June inflation report on Wednesday. Our economist expects a consensus 0.3% month-on-month core read, which should keep providing encouraging news on the disinflationary story – but should still fall short of tweaking the Fed narrative or convincing markets to price out a July hike. A downside inflation surprise could see DXY test the 101.00 April lows, but we think that the dollar could instead find some support into the CPI release and stabilise in the second half of the week. Today’s calendar includes some Fed speakers: Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Loretta Mester and Raphael Bostic. Elsewhere, we expect the Bank of Canada to hike by 25bp this week. This is far from a consensus view, with the pool of economists split between a hold and a hike and markets pricing in around 67% of implied probability of an increase. We explain our reasons in our latest Bank of Canada meeting preview.

FX Daily: Is equity rotation helping EUR/$? EUR/USD is nudging above 1.10 in quiet conditions. US interest rates are a little softer, but key drivers of EUR/USD such as interest rate differentials and energy prices have barely budged. Reports suggest that hedge funds may be rotating away from the narrow rally in US equities towards better valuations in Europe. If so, the dollar could soften further.   USD: Let's see if this dollar softness can extend The dollar has started the week on the soft side. There has not been too much data but the push factor of the Fed/US interest rate story versus the pull factor of overseas asset markets is slightly working against the dollar. On the former, US short-dated rates came off 10bp in the European afternoon yesterday seemingly on the back of a New York Fed consumer inflation expectations survey that in the one-year tenor fell to the lowest levels since April 2021. The market seemed to ignore three Fed speakers all sticking to the script that the policy rate would probably need to be hiked another 25bp or 50bp this year.   And in terms of the pull factor, some very modest support measures announced for the Chinese property sector seem to be raising speculation that broader support for the private sector will be forthcoming this summer. Asian equities are modestly bid today.  However, a story that caught our eye in today's Financial Times may be partially explaining this soft dollar tone. The report suggests hedge funds have slashed their positions in US equities to the lowest in a decade and are turning their attention to under-valued European equities. Obviously, there are myriad factors that drive FX rates, but one can argue that the dollar trading to the weak side of what interest rate differentials suggest may be partially down to this kind of rotation. Remember that unlike bond market flows, equity flows are normally left FX unhedged. Back to today and the best chance for this dollar decline to extend a little further will be the release of the NFIB small business optimism data for June. As our US economist James Knightley points out in our week ahead, a further decline in pricing intentions in this survey will add weight to the view that inflation is coming lower. (The main event, however, remains tomorrow's release of June CPI.) We do not expect big FX moves today, but DXY could continue drifting toward the 101.50 area.

FX Daily: Underdogs make a comeback ahead of US CPI It has been a good week for the underdogs in the G10 FX world. The Japanese yen, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona and Swiss franc led the gains against the dollar over the last week. This may well be a position adjustment against the risk of a benign US CPI print today and a tweak in Bank of Japan policy at the end of the month. Today's CPI reading will therefore be key.   USD: Benign CPI could unlock a leg lower lower in the dollar Another European morning follows another Asian session where USD/JPY has led the dollar lower. The Japanese yen has now appreciated 3.6% against the dollar over the last week, closely followed by NOK (+3.4%), SEK (+2.7%) and CHF (+2.4%). We discussed some of the push-pull factors driving the dollar in yesterday's update, but the outperformance of these underdog currencies clearly points to some position adjustment at work. The broad-based nature of the rally in these currencies suggests investors may be anticipating a more benign US price environment like the one we saw in November last year when the US started to print core inflation at 0.3% month-on-month after a string of 0.6% releases. That nicely brings us to today's main event, which is the June CPI release at 14:30CET. Expectations are for a more benign 0.3% MoM core reading - the lowest since last November - and base effects bringing the headline CPI down to just 3.1% YoY - the lowest since March 2021. Assuming no nasty upside surprises here, this may be enough to firm up a view that a 25bp Fed hike may well be the last in the cycle. If so, DXY could make a run at the year's lows near 100.80. A quick word on the yen. Developments in USD/JPY - especially the sell-off in early Asia - seem to be led by selling in the JGB bond market. Here, 30-year JGB yields are rising - spreads between 30-year US and Japanese government bonds have narrowed 12bp over the last week - and the Nikkei equity index is underperforming. This has all the hallmarks of position adjustment before the 28 July Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting, where expectations are growing that the BoJ could switch to targeting the five-year part of the JGB yield curve - another small step to policy normalisation. In short, then, this USD/JPY move looks driven by the private not public sector (i.e. no intervention) and something like 138.25 looks like a near-term target for USD/JPY assuming today's US CPI data does not surprise on the upside    

FX Daily: Dollar drops on the disinflation trade The downside surprise in US June CPI inflation has seen the dollar drop to new lows for the year. Over recent months we had been speculating that clear signs of US disinflation - and a weaker dollar - may emerge in 3Q23 and yesterday's moves could well be the start of an important market adjustment. Look out for US PPI and US initial claims today.   USD: The start of something It has been a long time coming, but yesterday's surprisingly soft US June CPI numbers may be the first sign this year that sharp Fed rate hikes are finally starting to bite. As our US economist, James Knightley, notes, there were welcome declines in all of the key categories of inflation. He does not think this will prevent another 25bp Fed rate hike at the 26 July meeting, but it will add weight to the view that the July hike may indeed be the last in the cycle. The data could also herald a change in the Fed narrative from frustration that inflation has not fallen as quickly as expected to a more welcoming approach to recent data releases.  We had discussed the potential FX market impact of a soft US CPI print in yesterday's FX Daily and the soft CPI has driven more benign pricing around the world - i.e. bullish steepening of yield curves, higher equities, narrower credit spreads, and a weaker dollar. FX price action has all the hallmarks of a position unwind, where those currencies sold on a bearish/hard landing scenario (e.g. Norway's krone, Sweden's krona, and to a lesser degree some other commodity currencies) have now made a very strong comeback. Indeed, both the NOK and SEK had been extremely undervalued in our medium-term valuation models and are now finding room to breathe. For the big dollar trend, this may be the start of the long-awaited cyclical decline. There are parallels to the dollar sell-off last November and December (when it fell 8% in two months), but the difference now is; i) positioning, where speculators are not as heavily long dollars as they were last October, and ii) the China and European growth stories do not seem due as much of a re-rating as they enjoyed last November. That said, we prefer to run with the dollar bearish story for the time being, where DXY should press big psychological support at 100.00. The next target would be 99.00 on a breakout. For today, look out for US June PPI and the weekly initial claims number. A further decline in PPI and a rise in claims could see dollar losses extend.

FX Daily: Dollar bears being asked for patience Quiet summer markets are seeing dollar pairs consolidate in new, slightly lower ranges. It will be another quiet session today ahead of a big week for G3 central bank meetings. Dollar bears may find some reassurance from emerging markets, where the PBoC is trying to limit USD/CNY gains and the South African rand is holding up despite the lack of a rate hike.   USD: Dollar reconnects with short-term rate differentials As my colleague Francesco Pesole has been writing this week, the dollar has made a modest comeback as both US yields adjust higher and short-term rate spreads stay in the dollar's favour. In fact, one could argue that the dollar should even be a little higher given that two-year US yields have retraced about 50% of their drop in the first half of July and the DXY has only retraced one-third of its losses. Price action over the past week probably shows that a switch to the disinflation trade will not be easy and will require a constant drip feed of supporting evidence – be it softer price or weaker activity data. Yesterday's drop in US initial claims clearly did not help here. Casting around the world in quiet FX markets we see the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continuing to fight a weaker renminbi by printing lower USD/CNY fixings than model-based estimates suggest. Despite credible calls for a lower renminbi to support growth and battle deflation, it seems Chinese policymakers prefer to keep renminbi losses contained and prevent a 'sell China' mentality building. The PBoC's battle against a stronger USD/CNY is a slight dollar negative in quiet summer markets – especially should it extend to outright dollar sales. Today's session should be a quiet one as the market prepares for US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan (BoJ) meetings next week. Regarding the BoJ, expectations of any Yield Curve Control policy tweak seem very low (perhaps too low) given that the 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield is drifting lower and the forward market prices 10-year JGB yields at 50bp in three months and at only 55bp in six months. These 10-year yields should be priced a lot higher were the market expecting a policy change. USD/JPY may well drift to the 141.15/142.00 area before next Friday's BoJ meeting.

FX Daily: Dollar bears being asked for patience Quiet summer markets are seeing dollar pairs consolidate in new, slightly lower ranges. It will be another quiet session today ahead of a big week for G3 central bank meetings. Dollar bears may find some reassurance from emerging markets, where the PBoC is trying to limit USD/CNY gains and the South African rand is holding up despite the lack of a rate hike.   USD: Dollar reconnects with short-term rate differentials As my colleague Francesco Pesole has been writing this week, the dollar has made a modest comeback as both US yields adjust higher and short-term rate spreads stay in the dollar's favour. In fact, one could argue that the dollar should even be a little higher given that two-year US yields have retraced about 50% of their drop in the first half of July and the DXY has only retraced one-third of its losses. Price action over the past week probably shows that a switch to the disinflation trade will not be easy and will require a constant drip feed of supporting evidence – be it softer price or weaker activity data. Yesterday's drop in US initial claims clearly did not help here. Casting around the world in quiet FX markets we see the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continuing to fight a weaker renminbi by printing lower USD/CNY fixings than model-based estimates suggest. Despite credible calls for a lower renminbi to support growth and battle deflation, it seems Chinese policymakers prefer to keep renminbi losses contained and prevent a 'sell China' mentality building. The PBoC's battle against a stronger USD/CNY is a slight dollar negative in quiet summer markets – especially should it extend to outright dollar sales. Today's session should be a quiet one as the market prepares for US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan (BoJ) meetings next week. Regarding the BoJ, expectations of any Yield Curve Control policy tweak seem very low (perhaps too low) given that the 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield is drifting lower and the forward market prices 10-year JGB yields at 50bp in three months and at only 55bp in six months. These 10-year yields should be priced a lot higher were the market expecting a policy change. USD/JPY may well drift to the 141.15/142.00 area before next Friday's BoJ meeting.

USD: Short dollar positioning looks quite heavy It's a big week for FX markets given looming rate decisions in the US, the eurozone and Japan. The dollar goes into these meetings in a slightly corrective mood and retracing some of the sharp losses after the release of the soft US June CPI report earlier this month. What might support that corrective mood is market positioning, where the latest data from the FX futures markets in Chicago suggests that asset managers are running their largest short dollar position on record when aggregating their positioning across eight FX futures contracts. We also happen to see some upside risk to the dollar this week from Wednesday's FOMC meeting, where we think it's still too early for the Fed to switch to a data-dependent approach to any further rate hikes.  This week also sees US consumer confidence, second quarter GDP revisions and the second quarter Employment Cost Index. As always, the dollar story is driven by the push-pull factors of the US versus the Rest of the World (RoW). Unless we get some upside surprises in European PMIs today or Chinese authorities announce some overwhelming stimulus measures at Friday's Politburo meeting, it looks like the dollar can continue in this corrective/slightly bid tone. DXY looks like it could grind higher to the 101.50 area.

FX Daily: European pessimism, Chinese optimism In quiet markets ahead of G3 central bank meetings later this week, currency pairs are being driven by the soft set of eurozone July PMIs and also the prospect of some renewed Chinese stimulus after China's Politburo promised 'counter-cyclical' measures. These look like short-term trends. We would wait for the policy meetings to set the true FX tone.   USD: China stimulus – here we go again In quiet markets ahead of G3 central bank meetings, the FX market's focus has once again fallen on China. Having broadly disappointed investor expectations this year, China's economy is seen as enjoying a lift after China's Politburo yesterday promised 'counter-cyclical' measures. These follow a drip feed of support measures over recent weeks, such as the easing of restrictions in the mortgage sector, the encouragement to buy cars and electronics, and perhaps some support to local governments saddled with debt. None of these seem to be a game-changer so far, but the market optimists are hoping that this new directive from the Politburo will be turned into powerful stimulus at the State Council level.  Tellingly, USD/CNH did not move much when these measures were announced during the European session yesterday, but Asian investors are running with the story and driving the renminbi some 0.6% higher this European morning. Chinese equities are having a decent run too. These short-term trends may well fizzle out – we've been here before with prospects of China stimulus – but they could provide some mild support to emerging market and commodity currencies through the session. The reason why we warn against pursuing a full 'risk-on' rally in Rest of World (RoW) currencies is that the European economy looks weak and tomorrow's FOMC meeting will probably see the Fed's foot remaining firmly on the monetary brakes. Additionally, there was an overnight Wall Street Journal article by Fed watcher Nick Timiraos entitled: 'Why the Fed isn't Ready to Declare Victory on Inflation' – perhaps a nod to a still hawkish FOMC statement tomorrow.  Today's US data releases are second tier, but the consensus is expecting a decent tick-up in the July consumer confidence reading. As in the UK, there is a growing sense that consumers have so far been able to handle the pain of higher rates, diluting the case for any early easing cycles.   DXY can trade a tight 101.00-101.50 range ahead of tomorrow's Fed meeting.

FX Daily: Dollar to stay supported into the Fed Fed day has arrived. A 25bp hike is widely expected and it looks far too early for the central bank to soften up its FOMC statement by embracing recent disinflationary trends. This should see the dollar holding onto some of its modest gains made over the last week. Elsewhere, the EM and commodity complex will want to be fed more news on China stimulus.   USD: Dollar to hold gains A look at FX performance over the last five trading sessions provides a good insight into the market's mindset and echoes the themes we highlighted yesterday of European pessimism and Chinese optimism. In the G10 space, the dollar has been the strongest currency but able to withstand that modest dollar strength the best has been the commodity complex of the Australian and Canadian dollars, plus the Norwegian krone. Underperforming has been the euro, with EUR/USD down 1.3% over the week. Indeed, we have seen independent euro weakness on the back of the soft PMI data and European Central Bank (ECB) lending survey. In the EM space, a similar story is playing out. Outperforming is the renminbi and its two most correlated currencies in the EM space, the South African rand and the Brazilian real. Underperforming on the back of the weak European story are the Hungarian forint and the Czech koruna. Also underperforming is the Chilean peso, where the central bank has recently announced a programme to replenish sorely depleted FX reserves. Important drivers of the FX story near term will therefore be whether the Federal Reserve stays hawkish, whether the ECB stays hawkish in the face of softening data and whether Chinese authorities follow through with detailed and sufficiently powerful stimulus to see the commodity currencies hold onto recent gains. Regarding the Fed, we think it is too early to remove key language from its statement that further tightening may be appropriate after today's 25bp hike. And we wonder whether it wants to push back against the 100bp of easing priced in for 2024. We see the Fed event risk as a mildly positive one for the dollar. DXY to trade 101.00-101.50 into the Fed, with risks of a breakout to 102.00 today.

FX Daily: Fed patience provides breathing room for risk assets The market reaction to last night's FOMC statement was a mildly positive one, as Chair Powell's acknowledgement that the Fed could afford to be a little patient saw US yields and the dollar soften slightly. Today, all eyes will be on the ECB, where a 25bp hike is widely expected along with the door being left open for another hike in September.   USD: A little early to chase the dollar lower In the end, the dollar tracked US yields and marginally softened after yesterday's FOMC rate decision and press conference. Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered another credible performance, and it seemed that markets – perhaps because of positioning – latched onto comments that the Fed "could afford to be a little patient" as a result of all the tightening implemented so far. US two-year yields edged some 7-8 bps lower, and December 2024 futures contracts priced Fed Funds some eight ticks lower at 4.07%, embracing five 25bp cuts in 2024. One of the clearest messages coming through from the press conference was that Chair Powell felt the Fed was "not in an environment where we want to provide a lot of forward guidance". In other words: listen to the data, not the Fed. On that subject, he highlighted that by the time of the next meeting on September 20th, the Fed would have two new CPI reports, two new job reports, and the Employment Cost Index (which will be released tomorrow).  While the dollar is a little lower today post-Fed, we would not chase the move just yet and prefer to take our cue from the data, starting with tomorrow's ECI. As we discussed in our FOMC review, the carry trade environment will still be popular and with overnight deposit rates at 5.25%, the dollar is clearly not a funding currency. Beyond the ECB meeting today, the US calendar should see some downward revisions to second quarter GDP, durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims. Of these, claims might be the most important given the ongoing need to see tight conditions ease in the US labour market. Barring any hawkish surprise from the ECB today, DXY should trade within a 100.60-101.20 range.

FX Daily: Diverging G3 trends dominate Closing the week, we have the Japanese yen a little stronger as the BoJ softens up YCC control, the dollar is steady-to-stronger on good US activity data, and the euro is weaker as the ECB throws a September rate hike into doubt. After the BoJ press conference, today's highlight will be the US Employment Cost Index data. A soft number could hit the dollar.   USD: The ECI will be in focus today The combination of some stronger US activity data and some independent euro weakness on the back of yesterday's ECB meeting has seen the trade-weighted DXY dollar push a little higher. DXY would be even higher were it not for the lower USD/JPY we have seen today on the back of the Bank of Japan's tweak to its Yield Curve Control (YCC) target.  Regarding the BoJ, we think the market is right to have taken USD/JPY a little lower after this surprise adjustment to how it manages its 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield target. What has probably prevented USD/JPY from dropping harder are the new BoJ core CPI forecasts, where FY24 and FY25 CPI are still only forecast at 1.9% (April forecast 2.0%) and 1.6% (1.6%) respectively. This hardly provides a firm foundation to conclude that CPI will now sustainably run near 2.0%. Instead, the tweak to the YCC programme may reflect BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's preference to take baby steps away from the heavy control of the JGB market - i.e. maybe he's more of a free marketeer.  However, we do think the drop in USD/JPY might get some support from the dollar side today. Undoubtedly, US activity data has been holding up well, and based purely on the activity data alone one would argue that the Fed had the strongest case for another rate hike, yet Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges that US monetary policy is already in restrictive territory and the focus is on disinflation.  On Wednesday, Powell said there would be important data prints before the September FOMC meeting – two CPI prints, two jobs reports and the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Well the second-quarter ECI figure is released today and is expected at 1.1% – a drop from 1.2% in the first quarter and a peak of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022. My colleague James Knightley thinks the risks are skewed to a sub-consensus 1.0% reading today given the softer average hourly earnings and survey evidence both from the Fed's Beige Book as well as the NFIB data that the US labour market is coming better into balance. A soft ECI number can wipe out the final 8bp that is priced for the US tightening cycle this year and will probably knock the dollar 0.5-1.0% lower. This would be a good story for risk assets, where both the Fed and seemingly the ECB would be closer to ending tightening cycles. If we are right with our call on the ECI, DXY could head back to yesterday's low near 100.50.

FX Daily: RBA's pause isn't the endgame The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates for a second consecutive month, but we still think there is a chance the bank will hike one last time in September on the back of an inflation surprise. In the US, surveys will test the soft-landing story, but the dollar may stay 'trapped' amid low FX volatility for now.   USD: Still fighting for direction We have recently made the case for the dollar to stay “trapped” in a situation where FX volatility fails to pick up, leaving room for carry trades to keep supporting high-yielders and weigh on funding currencies. The greenback probably needs some compelling evidence against the soft-landing narrative in the coming days to break lower. Today will be the first occasion to put that narrative to the test this week. The US manufacturing sector has been in contractionary territory since November 2022, and the consensus expectations for a mild rebound from 46 to 47 this month may not have major market implications. We think JOLTS job openings data have a greater potential to move investors’ sentiment today, with the consensus already positioned for a cool-off in the hiring market. On the Fedspeak side, we’ll hear from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. One data release that went slightly under the radar yesterday, but in our view contained key forward-looking information, was the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. As discussed by our US economist here, the survey pointed at a further tightening in US lending conditions and how both households and businesses are now warier about taking on additional borrowing. Given the centrality of credit flow to the US economy, this increases the probability of a faster return to target inflation. Outside of the US, China continued to print disappointing data: the latest being July’s Caixin PMI manufacturing, which fell more than expected into contraction territory (49.2). This has set the stage for a risk-off-leaning environment in FX this morning, which can favour some modest dollar recovery into the US data releases and help DXY consolidate above 102.00, before facing harder data-related tests (ISM services and jobs report later this week).

FX Daily: US Treasury wobble unnerves risk assets A sell-off at the long end of the US Treasury market has cast a shadow over risk assets and hit cyclical currencies. The dollar has been the main beneficiary. Expect focus to very much remain on the US bond market into next week's quarterly refunding. For today, attention is on whether the BoE hikes 25bp or 50bp and how Brazilian assets react to the 50bp rate cut.   USD: Tracking Treasuries Wednesday's session was all about the US bond market and the sell-off at the long end of the curve. US 30-year Treasury yields were briefly 15bp higher. And far from the benign bullish disinversion of the curve we saw after the soft June CPI print, yesterday's move was a more negative bullish steepening. Higher risk-free rates hit US growth stocks (Nasdaq -2%) and also hit 'growth' currencies, such as the commodity complex and the unloved Scandi currencies. At the heart of yesterday's move was the US fiscal story. Despite the Democrat administration and its supporters in the media decrying Fitch's decision to remove the sovereign's AAA status on Tuesday evening, there is genuine concern over US fiscal dynamics. And it looks like the Fitch release was carefully timed. Yesterday also saw a slightly higher than expected US quarterly refunding announcement, where $103bn of 3, 10, and 30-year bonds will be sold next week. The fact that fiscal dynamics were in play yesterday was reflected in wider US asset swap spreads (Treasuries underperforming the US swap curve) and the US yield curve steepening. As above, higher risk-free rates are providing greater headwinds to risk asset markets - including equities. We are also seeing some slightly higher cross-market volatility readings which may prompt investors to partially de-risk from carry trade strategies (good for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc on the crosses, bad for the high yielders). We will also be interested to see how the Brazilian real performs today after Brazil's central bank started its easing cycle last night with a 50bp cut and promised similar magnitude cuts over coming meetings. The currency could edge a little lower today given the international environment. While the US Treasury story will be with us into next week's auctions, the focus today will be on the initial jobless claims (these have been moving markets) and the services ISM index. Barring a significant rise in claims or a big dip in the services ISM, it looks like the dollar will hang onto recent gains into what should be a decent US July nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow.    DXY could grind its way toward the 103.50 area.  

FX Daily: Dollar benefits from a lack of alternatives The US remains on an encouraging disinflation track, but the dollar is not turning lower. This is, in our view, due to a lack of attractive alternatives given warning growth signals in other parts of the world (such as the eurozone and China). Evidence of a US economic slowdown is needed to bring USD substantially lower.   USD: Disinflation not enough for the bears July’s US inflation numbers released yesterday were largely in line with expectations, reassuring markets that there are no setbacks in the disinflationary process for now. Core inflation inched lower from 4.8% to 4.7%, while the headline rate suffered a rebound (from 3.0% to 3.2%) due to a reduced base effect compared to previous months, which was still smaller than the consensus of 3.3%. With the exception of resilience in housing prices, price pressures clearly abated across all components. All in all, the US report offered reasons for the Fed and for risk assets to cheer, as the chance of another rate hike declined further. Equities rallied and the US yield curve re-steepened: the dollar should have dropped across the board in this scenario. However, the post-CPI picture in FX was actually more mixed. This was a testament to how currencies are not uniquely driven by US news at the moment. The Japanese yen drop was not a surprise, given abating bond and FX volatility, equity outperformance and carry-trade revamp, but FX markets seemed lightly impacted by CPI figures and the subsequent risk-on environment, as many high-beta currencies failed to hang on to gains. From a dollar point of view, we think the recent price action denotes a reluctance to rotate away from the greenback given the emergence of concerning stories in other parts of the world. This is not to say that the activity outlook in the US is particularly bright – jobless claims touched a one-month high yesterday, and the outlook remains very vulnerable to deteriorated credit dynamics – but if economic slowdown alarms are flashing yellow in Washington, they are flashing amber in Frankfurt and Beijing. Chinese real estate developer Garden reported a record net loss of up to $7.6bn during the first half of the year yesterday, at a time when China’s officials are trying to calm investors’ nerves about another potential property crisis. Back to the US, PPI and the University of Michigan inflation expectation figures out today will clarify how far the disinflation story has gone in July, but we still sense a substantial dollar decline is not on the cards for the moment, or at least until compelling evidence of slowing US activity makes the prospect of Fed cuts less remote. DXY may consolidate above 102.00 over the next few days.

FX Daily: More volunteers to support the US dollar Data confirms the strength of the US economy and today's industrial production and FOMC minutes can only add fuel to the fire. The US dollar is the clear winner here and we are hardly looking for firepower in the eurozone to defend the euro. In the CEE region, Poland returns from holidays and the Czech koruna is the only one able to resist negative global factors.\   USD: FOMC minutes and a strong economy should offer further support Another nudge coming from the positive surprise in US retail sales did not last long and the US two-year yield slipped back down after touching the 5% level. This kept the US dollar index near 103.00, however, another hawkish test may come again today. Industrial production, after a 0.5% month-on-month drop in June, should show a return to 0.3% MoM growth in July in our view, in line with market expectations. Retail sales already indicate 3% GDP growth in the third quarter in our view and estimates for industrial production are also supportive of another positive surprise, confirming the strength of the US economy, which would be more positive news for the US dollar, of course. Later today, the July Federal Reserve minutes will come into play, which should reflect the FOMC's hawkish efforts to combat dovish expectations. This should be the last big event from the Fed until next week's Jackson Hole symposium. For now, this strategy is working perfectly. The implied policy rate has moved up roughly 50-60bp over almost the entire curve in the last month alone, with the exception of the super-short horizon. However, it is just a matter of time before the Fed uses up its ammunition and the market stops buying more hawkish news. For now though, we remain in this mode for at least the next few days, which combined with the positive surprises from the economy, should continue to support the US dollar. Thus, DXY should remain above 103.00 and test higher levels closer to 103.50 today as well.

FX Daily: Unruly EM currencies keep the dollar in demand The combination of US yields at their highs and some intense pressure on emerging market currencies are maintaining the US dollar's status as a worthy safe haven. Today's focus will be on whether the Chinese renminbi falls any further after the surprise rate cut overnight and what should be some decent US July retail sales data. Expect the dollar to stay bid.   USD: Strong US retail sales should help The dollar pushed ahead around 0.7% yesterday as pressure on EM currencies around the world encouraged more dollar demand. Very much in focus remains China's renminbi (CNY), which hit a new low overnight after the People's Bank of China surprised with a 15bp rate cut in its Medium Term Lending Facility. USD/CNH (the liquid offshore pair) has pushed up to a new high for the year above 7.30 and has its sights set on last October's high at 7.3750. We mention the renminbi so much in this dollar section since weakness drags most of the Asian FX complex with it and provides a bullish undercurrent to the dollar across the board. Nonetheless, a rate cut from China is a stimulus and perhaps means that some of the commodity currencies do not have to fall as much. The rate cut also provides a tailwind to renminbi-funded carry trades. In terms of what comes next from China, we could possibly see a cut in the required reserve ratio (RRR) on FX deposits - this was cut to 6% from 8% last September in an attempt to take some pressure off the renminbi. In quiet markets, the US dollar might also be getting some support from events in Argentina (see below) and the market is watching USD/RUB trade through 100. Here, the Central Bank of Russia has an emergency rate meeting today, which is expected to result in a large hike and perhaps some tightening of capital controls.  For the dollar itself, July US retail sales should be strong and keep US two-year yields near 5%. It seems the market is indeed settling into the view that the policy rate will be kept at these levels for an extended period - providing few reasons to sell the 5%+ yielding US dollar. DXY can probably trade bid within a narrow 103.00-103.50 range today. And please take a look at our August edition of FX Talking for all our latest FX views. 

FX Daily: Someone is still hiking The July FOMC minutes signalled clear openness to more tightening, but market pricing did not move a lot. The FX markets seemed more sensitive to that, and the dollar is enjoying some good momentum. Meanwhile, Norges Bank should hike by 25bp today, and this may not even be their last move; we still see NOK gains ahead. USD: Hawkish minutes, reluctant pricing The minutes of July’s FOMC policy meeting released yesterday showed the majority of members kept seeing upside risks to the inflation outlook and left the door open for more tightening. That mirrors what was previously indicated in the dot plot projections, but we think that the encouraging developments on the disinflation side mean the Fed won’t have to hike again and will instead opt for a long pause before cutting in 2024. The dollar found some support after the release of the minutes, although the Fed Funds Futures did not move significantly, still pricing in a 30% probability of another Fed hike. The reluctance to price in a greater probability is keeping the dollar’s gains limited. On the data side, our US economist debriefs yesterday’s set of releases here. Mortgage rates are hitting fresh highs, but that is failing to trigger the kind of house price correction we see elsewhere in the world, as crushed supply keeps prices elevated. Ultimately, Fed rate cuts next year could be the trigger for a real estate price correction should that allow a rebound in supply. On the industrial production side, a strong read for July contradicted the ISM manufacturing index, which had suggested the sector has been contracting for nine consecutive months. Today, the jobless claims will be watched closely after a surprise jump last week, and the calendar also includes the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook for August and July’s Leading Index. The dollar is enjoying some modest bullish momentum – also helped by more worrying news from China’s real estate sector - but it may be lacking a clear catalyst to break above 104.00 (DXY) before the end of the week.

FX Daily: Quiet G10 markets despite Chinese turmoil Beijing continues to fight the recent turmoil on multiple fronts: real estate, financial, and the FX market. Overnight, the PBoC set the CNY fixing with the largest gap to estimates in order to curb bearish speculation. Despite all the turmoil in China, G10 volatility has remained capped, and this is probably why Japanese authorities are not intervening.   USD: Chinese authorities go all in to defend the yuan Developments in the distressed Chinese financial and property sector are emerging as the most prominent driver for market sentiment, especially after the Fed minutes proved to have limited implications for central bank expectations and developed market calendars are quite light. Overnight, Chinese authorities turned their focus on the FX market, deploying what is now regarded as the biggest defence of the yuan via fixing guidance on record. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) fixed USD/CNY at 7.2006, significantly below the average estimate of 7.305, which marks the largest gap compared to the estimate since the poll started in 2018. Today’s PBoC move follows yesterday’s reports that state-owned banks were asked by Chinese authorities to step up yuan interventions to reduce FX volatility. We could also see a cut in FX reserve requirements, often considered as a tool to avert sharp CNY depreciation. So far, the spillover into G10 currencies has been limited. The highly exposed AUD is down 1.4% this week, a relatively contained slump considering the amount of bad news that has piled up in the past few days. This is probably a signal of how AUD was already embedding a good deal of negatives related to China and how markets are expecting government intervention to avert black swan scenarios. This morning, the emergency yuan fixing has left FX markets quite untouched, with the exception of USD/JPY trading on the soft side, likely due to Japan’s service inflation hitting 2% for the first time in 30 years overnight. Incidentally, the pair is well into FX intervention territory but is probably missing enough volatility to worry Japanese officials. Still, the oversold conditions of JPY and the threat of interventions are likely going to exacerbate any USD/JPY downside corrections. The US calendar is empty today and the focus will likely be on bond market dynamics after back-end yields touched fresh multi-year highs yesterday. The combined effect of high yields and growing risks in China suggests the balance of risks is moderately tilted to the upside for the dollar. A return to 104.00 in DXY remains a tangible possibility in the coming days.

FX Daily: Treasury slide keeps markets nervous This week's highlights include the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, the 15th BRICS summit and flash PMIs for August. The steady slide in US Treasuries presents a headwind for risk assets and should keep the dollar in demand.\   USD: Treasury slide supports the dollar It has been a quiet start to the week for FX markets. Chinese authorities have delivered another rate cut – but this time the one-year loan prime rate has been lowered 10bp to 3.45%, while the 5-year loan prime rate has been unexpectedly left unchanged. The latter rate is seen as more important to Chinese mortgage markets and raises questions about how China plans to stimulate demand in that sector. The rate cut did not see large moves in the renminbi, and the ongoing low USD/CNY fixings suggest Chinese authorities are trying to draw some kind of line in the sand near 7.35. Unlike the Japanese, who are very transparent with their FX intervention activities, it is hard to discern whether Chinese authorities are intervening to sell dollars near current levels. However, with China employing monetary stimulus, expect the renminbi to stay soft and remain a popular funding currency. The dollar looks set to hold onto its gains this week. In focus will be Friday's speech from Fed Chair Jay Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium. This comes at a time when US 10-year yields are closing in on 4.30%, and our rates strategy team favours 4.50%. Intriguingly, the team notes that the US 10-year yield correlates most with the pricing of the policy rate four or five years forward. In other words, the Treasury sell-off is less about the terminal rate for this tightening cycle and more about where the Fed Funds rate settles under more normal conditions. Chair Powell could shed some light on this on Friday. The bottom line, however, is that it looks too early for the Fed to sound the all-clear on inflation and the dollar probably holds its gains.  DXY is holding gains above the 100-day moving average at 103.20 and can probably edge up to 104.00 this week. Additionally this week, look out for headlines from the BRICS summit (taking place August 22-24) in South Africa. The topic of BRICS expansion tops the agenda and inevitably will raise questions over the threat of de-dollarisation. Any evidence of that is very scant so far, as we note in our full report here.  

FX Daily: Manning the renminbi barricade In quiet summer FX markets, the top story remains Chinese authorities' defence of the renminbi, This stands to be a long campaign given that USD/CNY is trading near 7.30 for good reason. Elsewhere, tech stocks are making US equities look bid even though steadily higher US Treasury yields pose a challenge. And looks out for BRICS expansion news today.   USD: 'We've got tech stocks' US equity markets continue to outperform. This seems largely down to the rally in tech stocks on the AI bandwagon, where Nvidia's 2Q results are widely anticipated for tomorrow. US equity performance is adding to the sense of 'US exceptionalism', backed also by better growth numbers and a central bank that has more reason than most to stay hawkish late into its tightening cycle. There is only second-tier US macro data today, but with US Treasury yields continuing to push higher, headwinds to the equity rally are growing, and temporarily parking funds in the dollar paying 5.30% in overnight rates doesn't seem like a bad idea. Equally, we expect the dollar to stay largely bid into Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair, Jay Powell. Two other highlights today. The first is the People's Bank of China's battle to keep USD/CNY under the 7.30 area. In addition to representing their displeasure with USD/CNY levels by printing very low onshore fixings (7.1992 last night), yesterday it seemed as though the focus was on the funding side where 1m CNH implied yields spiked over 5% (the highest since 2018) making it more expensive to run CNH short positions. As mentioned recently, Chinese FX intervention is opaque, but another measure to support the renminbi would be cutting the required reserves on FX deposits. Brief dips in USD/CNH see the dollar offered across the board, but with Chinese authorities cutting official interest rates, we suspect any CNH gains will be limited and temporary. Also today we see the start of the BRICS summit in South Africa. Expansion tops the agenda and names in the frame we think could be the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Bangladesh - all of which joined the BRICS New Development Bank in 2021. It would be a massive surprise were Saudi Arabia to join the grouping - which would inevitably lead to speculation over oil being priced in non-dollar currencies and a headline that may temporarily hit the dollar. DXY looks very comfortable within the 102.70-103.70 range.

FX Daily: Attention turns to Turkey Ahead of tomorrow's main event of the week – speeches at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium – attention today will turn to Turkey. In focus will be whether the Central Bank of Turkey accelerates its policy tightening in a return to a more orthodox policy. Consensus suggests probably not. Elsewhere, the dollar should remain steady, with jobs in focus.   USD: Focus on the jobs market The dollar and US yields were knocked off their highs yesterday as an annual benchmark revision (up to March 2023) deducted 306,000 from the reported US payroll growth figures. Several expectations had in fact looked for a 500,000 reduction. The market reaction (a 10bp drop in the US yield curve) looked a little exaggerated but perhaps proves a reminder that the employment story is the most important US variable right now. In other words, US disinflation is welcome, but if the unemployment rate remains at its lows and consumption stays strong, inflation may never make it back to 2% on a sustainable basis.    For that reason, look out for the weekly initial jobless claims data today, where any tick higher to the 250,000 area could slightly weigh on US yields and the dollar. We would not expect big moves, however, before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's 1605CET speech tomorrow at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium. Given that the risk environment is a little better bid today – with Nvidia's results keeping the tech boom alive – DXY could trade slightly offered in a 103.15 to 103.50 range.

FX Daily: ECB hawkish pushback to face key inflation test The ECB hawks have stepped in to revive depressed rate expectations, but markets are opting for data dependency, and EUR/USD is set to face two key risk events with eurozone inflation figures before the US payrolls this week. We expect core inflation will prove resilient enough to trigger another ECB hike, so see upside room for the pair.   USD: Things will get hectic this week It has been a slow start to the week for FX markets. Yesterday’s closure of the UK’s markets for a national holiday meant much thinner trading volumes, and the key data calendar was quite light. In the US, the only release to note was the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, which dropped slightly more than expected into contraction territory, confirming the slack in the manufacturing territory already signalled by other surveys (ISM, PMIs). Still, the slowdown in manufacturing activity is hardly a US-only story. We have seen a deterioration in global forward-looking economic indicators in many developed economies recently, especially in Europe. The difference now is how the US service sector is appearing more resilient than the eurozone’s, despite significantly tighter monetary policy in the US. The relative strength in US activity indicators – compared to the rest of the world and to expectations – is what has kept the dollar in demand over the past few weeks, and should remain the number one driver of USD moves into year-end. That is because the disinflationary process appears to be cementing, allowing the Fed to halt hikes and focus on growth: until data turn for the worst, however, markets will not be pricing in more cuts, and a favourable real rate (the highest in the G10) will keep a floor under the dollar. This week presents some important risk events for the dollar from this point of view. Today, the JOLTS job openings for July will be watched closely in search for signs that the labour market has started to cool off more drastically. The Conference Board consumer confidence index is also published, and expected to come in only marginally changed compared to July. Later in the week, we’ll see ADP jobs numbers (they move the market, but tend to be unreliable), and the official payrolls report. Remember that payrolls through March were revised lower (although that is a preliminary revision) by 306,000, which probably adds extra heat to this week’s release. DXY is trading around the May-June 104.00 high area. Investors may want to wait for confirmation from jobs data to push the dollar significantly higher from these levels, and a wait-and-see, flat (or moderately offered) dollar environment could dominate FX markets into Friday’s payrolls.

FX Daily: Eurozone inflation, round one Spain and Germany will release inflation figures today, and market expectations for the ECB's September meeting may already be impacted. Eurozone numbers are out tomorrow. Meanwhile, ADP payrolls are out in the US after a soft batch of data hit the dollar yesterday, while AUD is shrugging off lower-than-expected CPI figures.   USD: ADP could be inaccurate, but may move the market Two softer-than-expected data releases in the US yesterday prompted a sizeable correction in the USD 2-year swap rate yields, which fell from 4.94% to the 4.80% area. JOLTS job openings data fell to 8.8 million in July, meaning there were approximately 1.5 open positions for each unemployed worker – the lowest ratio since September 2021. The hiring rate declined marginally, but the layoff rate was unchanged. Consumer confidence figures also disappointed, with the Conference Board survey dropping from a revised 114 level in July to 106 in August. Other components of the survey also declined. The rally in pro-cyclical currencies and the dollar’s weakness across the board was a confirmation of how US activity data – even if non tier-one releases – remain firmly in the driver's seat for global currency markets. Developments in China and in the commodity sphere, while important, clearly continue to play a secondary role. Today, expect markets to focus on the ADP employment figures. These have not proven to be a very accurate estimator of the official payrolls recently but have often impacted rate expectations. The consensus is for a 195k print. Wholesale inventories and pending home sales for July, as well as the GDP and core PCE secondary release for the second quarter, are also on the calendar today. The dollar is regaining some ground this morning after yesterday’s losses, but data will determine the direction of travel today. We had called for a weaker dollar at the start of this week and we’d like to see whether eurozone inflation data boost the chances of one last hike from the European Central Bank. With markets being more convinced of no more hikes by the Federal Reserve – barring a surprise in payrolls – a re-tightening in the EUR/USD short-term real rate gap could set the tone for a weaker dollar across the world. DXY may continue its correction from the 104.00 highs and test 103.00 should eurozone inflation figures come in strong enough and US employment not surprise on the upside. 

FX Daily: Low vol environment continues US jobs numbers continue to cause ripples in a becalmed summer FX market. Expect more of the same today as the market focuses on the weekly initial claims ahead of tomorrow's big NFP report. In Europe, the focus will be on the eurozone's August CPI release. Expectations of a further hike from the ECB are firming up and justify EUR/USD trading at 1.09-1.10.   USD: Thrashing around in a low vol environment Second-tier US jobs data (JOLTS and ADP) have seen the dollar soften a little this week. However, the data have yet to prove the smoking gun that can mark the end of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Stronger trends will only start to develop should we see a large downside miss on tomorrow's release of the August NFP jobs data or a sharp rise in the unemployment rate. That would undermine the thesis that strong employment consumption can keep the Fed in hawkish mode for a lot longer than most think.  For today, the focus will again be on some second and third-tier jobs data in the form of the weekly initial claims read. We will also see personal income, spending, and the core PCE deflator for July. Consensus actually sees the core PCE deflator rising to 4.2% year-on-year from 4.1% – so hardly a reason for markets to add to dollar short positions. In general, cross-asset market volatility remains low and there is not much to argue against the Japanese yen or Chinese renminbi-funded carry trade. As we have noted before, 5.30% overnight rates mean the dollar can hold gains in a carry trade environment. Currencies outperforming remain the EM high-yielders, such as those found in the CEE3 region and also Latam. Here, the Mexican peso continues to hold gains and offer near 12% implied yields. The peso should also be helped by the latest remarks from Banxico that, unlike Brazil and Chile, it is not considering rate cuts anytime soon. Unless we see a sharp spike in the weekly initial claims data today, we suspect DXY does not break too far from a 103.00-103.50 range.

FX Daily: Peso too strong, renminbi too weak, dollar just right FX markets await today's release of the August US jobs report to see if we've reached any tipping point in the labour market. Probably not. And it is still a little too early to expect the dollar to embark on a sustained downtrend. Elsewhere, policymakers in emerging markets are addressing currencies that are too weak (China) and too strong (Mexico).   USD: The market seems to be bracing for soft nonfarm payrolls data Today's focus will be the August nonfarm payrolls jobs release. The consensus expects around a +170k increase on headline jobs gains, although the "whisper" numbers are seemingly nearer the +150k mark. Importantly, very few expect much change in the 3.5% unemployment rate. This remains on its cycle lows, continues to support strong US consumption, and keeps the Fed on its hawkish guard. We will also see the release of average hourly earnings for August, which are expected to moderate to 0.3% month-on-month from 0.4%. As ING's US economist James Knightley notes in recent releases on the US economy and yesterday's US data, there are reasons to believe that strong US consumption cannot roll over into the fourth quarter and that a recession is more likely delayed than avoided. But this looks like a story for the fourth quarter. Unless we see some kind of sharp spike higher in unemployment today, we would expect investors to remain comfortable holding their 5.3% yielding dollars into the long US weekend. That is not to say the dollar needs to rally much, just that the incentives to sell are not here at present. If the dollar is at some kind of comfortable level, policy tweaks in the emerging market space over the last 24 hours show Beijing trying to fight renminbi weakness and Mexico City trying to fight peso strength (more on that below). We suspect these will be long, drawn-out battles with the market. DXY can probably stay bid towards the top of a 103-104 range.

FX Daily: The indestructible dollar Today's US Labor Day holiday means that it has been a quiet start to the week in the world of FX. The dollar remains near its highs despite Friday's US NFP jobs report showing a jobs market moving better into balance and wages softening. That probably owes to poor growth prospects overseas. Second-tier US data releases look unlikely to hit the dollar too hard.   USD: Little reason to offload dollar positions The dollar has had a good couple of months. It has been buoyed by domestic strength in the US economy and souring sentiment in key trading partners such as Europe and China. The source of that strong domestic demand in the US has been a tight labour market, which has powered consumption. Despite US wage growth softening in August and the unemployment rate finally climbing, US Treasury yields actually rose on Friday and the dollar strengthened. Driving that move may have been the rise in the participation rate with people returning to the workforce. This suggests that the narrative may have moved on from the disinflation debate towards the extension of employment, consumption and domestic demand.  This week's US data calendar looks unlikely to open a decisive new chapter in this narrative – although in the past, the release of the ISM services index (remember that sub-50 reading at the start of the year?) has moved markets. That index is released on Wednesday. There are a few Federal Reserve speakers this week, but market expectations that Fed rates have peaked look set, as do views of a modest 100bp of Fed easing next year (we look for 200bp+). We see little to challenge a strong dollar this week and could see DXY edging up to the 104.50/70 area.  Elsewhere in the world, the central bank policy focus is on the likes of Australia, Canada, Poland, Chile, and Israel. No change is expected in most, although Poland should be starting its easing cycle this week, and Chile is expected to follow up its 100bp cut in July with another large rate cut.

FX Daily: The Saudi squeeze brings energy back into the FX mix If the beleaguered euro and yen did not have enough to worry about already, they now have to cope with Brent oil trading above $90/bl as the Saudis extend their supply cuts through to year-end. Unless the US ISM services index somehow collapses today, expect the dollar to remain in demand. EUR/JPY, however, could start to turn lower based on positioning.   USD: ISM services the only threat to an otherwise bullish story The relentless rise of the dollar continues. The DXY yesterday pushed up to the highest levels since March as US yields once again edged higher. While the busiest day in US investment-grade corporate issuance in three years has surely been weighing on US treasuries, the FX market has also come under the spell of higher energy prices. The Saudis have this week confirmed their plan to roll over their 1mn barrels per day supply cut into December. This is keeping conditions tight in crude energy markets and now sees Brent trading over $90/bl. To FX markets, that provides an unwelcome reminder of the spike in energy prices last summer which had hit the energy-importing currencies in Europe and Asia. US energy independence and its net exporter status leave the dollar well-positioned for higher energy prices. It would seem the only real threat to the dollar in the near term would be some dramatic re-assessment of growth prospects. That brings us to the key piece of US data this week – today's release of the ISM services index for August. A sharp fall in this series did weigh on the dollar at the tail end of last year, but unless this really surprises with a sub-50 reading today, expect the dollar to hold onto recent gains and consolidate at these high levels before the US August CPI release this time next week. In terms of G3 currencies, we might see some re-adjustment, however. Speculators still seem to be holding onto long euro positions, while they continue to run very short positions against the yen on the carry trade. USD/JPY upside now looks more limited as rhetoric from Tokyo threatens imminent intervention. Positioning suggests EUR/USD support levels are more vulnerable. EUR/JPY may now struggle to get over the 158.50 area and may be about to embark on a correction to the 155 area.

FX Daily: Resistance to dollar strength is futile The dollar remains well-bid across the board as a relentless run of above-consensus US data suggests the Federal Reserve will be in no mood to relax its hawkish stance. Resistance to the strong dollar is crumbling - most notably in China where a higher USD/CNY fixing suggests the People's Bank of China is becoming more tolerant of renminbi weakness.   USD: No reason to unwind dollar longs The dollar is consolidating near the highest levels since March as US data continues to surprise on the upside. Following the above-expected ISM Services index on Wednesday, yesterday it was the turn of the weekly initial jobless claims to drop back to the lowest levels since February and question the narrative that tightness in the US labour market is easing. With activity data staying strong, it seems the market may be more minded to buy into the idea of another 'skip' - i.e. the Fed not hiking in September but hiking again later in the year. Clearly, this pushes the idea of a Fed easing cycle later and keeps the dollar stronger for longer. As has been the case so often, the dollar is the United States currency and everyone else's problem. Here, both Japanese and Chinese officials are fighting against dollar strength - with limited degrees of success. Japanese officials are sounding like we could well see intervention shortly - e.g. in the 148-150 window in USD/JPY. The highlight of the overnight session, however, has been the People's Bank of China (PBoC) allowing a higher fixing in the onshore USD/CNY. They have maintained the spread of the fixings to the model-implied fixings of around 1100 CNY pips, but the higher fixing has put paid to ideas that Chinese officials have some kind of line in the sand for USD/CNY at 7.35. USD/CNH is currently trading above that level. Low Chinese CPI next week and a PBoC rate decision with the one-year lending rate will keep expectations alive of further rate cuts too. The weaker CNY/CNH will continue to keep EM FX broadly offered and the dollar bid. There is very little in the way of US speakers or US data today. The weekend sees a G20 meeting in New Delhi, with much focus on how new alliances develop following the recently announced expansion plans of the BRICS.  We cannot see investors wanting to offload dollar balances anytime soon. This suggests DXY stays bid near 105.00.

Today sees the last major US inflation report ahead of the next FOMC meeting on 20 September. Higher gasoline prices and base effects are expected to push August CPI up to 3.6% YoY, and on a core and month-on-month basis, we also see an upside risk to the 0.2% MoM consensus estimate – clearly not enough to feed a bearish dollar narrative USD CPI figures to keep the dollar firm The highlight of today's session will be the August US CPI release. As our US economist James Knightley discusses here, the headline year-on-year rate is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.2% on base effects and higher gasoline prices. And while the core YoY rate may drop to 4.4% from 4.7%, an above consensus core month-on-month reading – possibly on the back of airfares and medical costs – will hardly support any narrative of the Federal Reserve's work being done. This will probably lay the groundwork for a reasonably hawkish FOMC meeting this time next week, where despite unchanged rates, the Fed will (through its Dot Plots) hold  out the threat of one further hike this year. All of the above should keep the dollar reasonably bid and keep policymakers in the likes of China and Japan busy fighting local currency weakness (more below). We are bearish on the dollar from the fourth quarter of this year, but this bearish narrative requires a few more weeks of patience. We favour DXY edging back to the top of its 104.50-105,00 range today.   Chris Turner.

FX Daily: ECB to hike, but don’t get too excited for the euro It’s a close call, but we expect a 25bp hike by the ECB today. Markets are pricing in a 65% implied probability of a hike, so EUR/USD should rise after the announcement if we are right. However, a full 25bp are factored in by year-end, and it will be hard for Lagarde to convince markets the ECB can push rates even higher. Any EUR rally may be short-lived.   USD: Muted reaction to CPI, but still good news for the dollar US inflation came in slightly hotter than expected in the August report released yesterday. As noted by our US economist here, the core print was 0.278%: not a terrible miss to the 0.2% consensus, but probably enough to convince the majority of FOMC members to keep one rate hike in their end-2023 dot plot projections. The headline surprise was, instead, primarily driven by the 10% jump in gasoline prices. The market reaction was, however, quite muted. We could speculate on some extremely forward-looking interpretation of the data, but we think it was just a case of rates and FX having priced in an above-consensus CPI ahead of the release. Still, the broader dollar story is firmer now heading into next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. A hike is unlikely, and dot plots will move the market. If the blip in the disinflation process that emerged in these August figures prevents a big dovish revision of the 2023 dots, then the evidence of US economic resilience since the last projections (June) means the 2024 dots could be revised higher. It all argues against any near-term turn lower in the greenback; that is, unless US activity data starts to disappoint. Today, markets will closely watch the European Central Bank, but the US calendar is also quite busy. Along with the jobless claims – which dropped much more than expected last week – retail sales, PPI and Empire Manufacturing figures for August will be released. We see DXY contracting on the back of the ECB hike, but as we discuss below, we don’t expect the EUR/USD rally to be long-lived: the dollar index could be trading back around 104.50/105.00 before the Fed meeting.

FX Daily: Up and down - a big week for policy rates and currencies There are a plethora of central bank policy rate meetings this week across the developed and emerging market economies. Rates could be raised as much as 500bp in Turkey, cut 50bp in Brazil, raised 25bp in four G10 economies, and left unchanged in the US. Our baseline assumes that the dollar holds onto its strength through the week.   USD: Dollar looks likely to hold gains It is a big week for policy rate meetings, with six of the G10 central banks in action. Setting the tone for global markets will be Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Here, our team sees a resolutely hawkish Federal Reserve, where despite unchanged rates the Fed, through its statement and dot plots, will hold out the possibility of one further hike to the 5.50-5.75% range later this year.  Even though we should see 25bp rate hikes across four European central banks through the week - see below - we doubt the dollar has to lose much ground - if any. The prospect of a prolonged period of unchanged rates is depressing US interest rates and cross-market volatility and leaving carry trade strategies very much en vogue. This - plus Brent trading close to $95/bbl - is keeping the likes of USD/JPY bid and few expect any substantial move in Bank of Japan policy this Friday. If there is to be a further move from Japan - it will likely come in late October when new economic forecasts are released. It is also a big week for policy rate meetings in emerging markets. In EMEA, the highlight will be whether the Central Bank of Turkey delivers another large hike on Thursday (+500bp expected) in a continuing return to policy orthodoxy, while Brazil should cut rates another 50bp in line with recent guidance. Given the strong interest in the carry trade this year, both the Turkish lira and Brazilian real could stay supported despite these diverging rate stories.  Elsewhere, Asia sees several rate meetings this week, but change is expected in neither China's Loan Prime Rates nor policy rates elsewhere in the region. DXY remains relatively strong and there does not seem a case for a decisive turn lower this week - unless we are all surprised by the Fed. There is a strong band of resistance in the 105.40/80 area, which may well cap this week. But equally, DXY should continue to find decent demand below 105.00. 

FX Daily: One last quiet day This will be the last day of relative calm in markets, ahead of two days packed with big central bank action. Investors are holding on to the dollar into the Fed, which signals expectations for a hawkish hold, while the euro is finding some modest support from speculation of ECB addressing excess liquidity. Canadian CPI may put a BoC hike back on the table.   USD: Positioning consolidates in favour of dollar ahead of key events Investors are consolidating their positions ahead of a slew of risk events for markets this week. This will be the last quiet day before the action begins with the Fed meeting and UK CPI tomorrow, and then four central bank meetings in Europe (in chronological order: Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, UK) on Thursday. The dollar traded a little softer in yesterday’s afternoon session but has remained close to the March highs (DXY has stayed above 105.00). The rally in oil prices – Brent at $95/bbl – has been helping the dollar, both because the US is a net oil exporter and because it adds an argument against turning too optimistic on US inflation. It appears markets are happy to hold on to recently built dollar longs ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC, which suggests expectations are generally for a hawkish hold. CFTC data show that the net dollar positioning has increased for eight consecutive weeks and has now moved into net-long territory. Speculators remain net-long EUR/USD at +15% of open interest as of last week, which was however the lowest level since October 2022. That may cap the upside potential for the dollar, but as discussed in our Fed preview, there should still be enough in the dot plot projections to keep the dollar supported. Today, the US calendar includes housing starts and building permit figures for the month of August, which are unlikely to impact markets. DXY should keep trading close to 105.00 into the Fed.

FX Daily: Re-pricing for a world of higher US rates FX markets are settling down after a big week of central bank policy announcements. Perhaps the biggest story is that the world's 10-year benchmark borrowing rate is pressing at 4.50% – seemingly on the view that a new neutral rate for Fed Funds may be 4%, not 2.5%. Expect the dollar to hold gains as Europe braces for another soft run of PMI data.   USD: 4.50% on the US 10-year yield could pressure risk assets US interest rates continue to grind higher. Overnight, the US 10-year Treasury yield has edged up to 4.50% – the highest since 2007. Driving the move continues to be a re-assessment of the Fed's higher-for-longer policy. Looking out along the USD OIS curve, investors struggle to see short-term US rates (one month OIS) below the 4.00% area over the next 15 years. Our rates strategy team argues that it is fair to see a modest positively sloping yield curve over that period and the 10-year priced 50bp above this 4% low point. This grind higher in US yields – marking higher risk-free rates – creates headwinds for risk assets such as equities, credit and emerging markets. Indeed, even the AI-powered S&P 500 is having a bad month, though it is still up 12.8% year-to-date. This equity correction is supportive news for the dollar, where any move to cash will mostly end up in the liquid dollar that pays 5.30% overnight rates. For today, another bleak run of PMIs in Europe may well keep European currencies soft and the dollar bid. The US data calendar today sees the flash PMIs for September, where the composite PMI remains just above 50. This data has not been market-moving recently. More important was yesterday's release of the lowest weekly jobless claims since January which suggested there are very few signs of a robust US labour market turning.  Expect DXY to remain bid and there is a scenario where the dollar stays strong into mid-October, when large US corporates based in California need to pay their taxes.

FX Daily: US bond market sets the FX tone The ongoing sell-off in the US bond market continues to set the tone – not just for FX markets but for risk assets in general. A heavy slate of US Treasury auctions this week and rising concern over a US government shutdown on Saturday is sending implied volatility higher and may trigger some more profit-taking on carry trade strategies.   USD: Focus on Treasuries again The dollar continues its grind higher and probably the biggest market talking point is the ongoing bearish steepening of the US Treasury curve. Speaking to our bond strategists, they think this is currently being driven by two factors. The first is the ongoing upward revision to where the Fed Funds rate settles after the next Fed easing cycle. Looking at the forward curve for one-month USD OIS rates, investors now see the low point in any future Fed easing cycle at around 4.00% in three years's time. Rather incredibly, at the start of this year, the market had seen the low point for Fed Funds in three years' time down at 2.70%. The second factor weighing on Treasuries is this week's $134bn auction of two, five and seven-year notes – which takes place over the next three days. This comes ahead of a potential US government shutdown this Saturday, where hard-right Republicans in the House seem to be holding out against a stop-gap spending bill. In the background remains a threat of another downgrade of US sovereign rates on the back of an 'erosion of governance'. Apart from the rise in US yields, we have now started to see a rise in implied volatility in the US Treasury market. This will prove a headwind to carry trade strategies and could prompt the unwinding of some of the most heavily invested positions. We would worry about the Mexican peso here, which also faces Banxico unwinding its dollar forward book in less than benign conditions. Another popular target currency in the carry trade – the Hungarian forint – may actually find some support from the local central bank today (see below).  In general, however, the continued rise in US yields is making for a less benign environment and favours risk reduction. Whilst higher US yields may push USD/JPY close to 150, they also increase the risk of an equity setback. That is why we think an instrument like the one-month USD/JPY downside risk reversal may be too conservatively priced. And in general, we would say commodity currencies remain vulnerable, especially those like the South African rand and Latam currencies – this latter group were hit hard during the early August sell-off in Treasuries. DXY can probably stay bid through this if activity currencies come under pressure and technical analysts will be dusting off calls for a move to the 107.20 area.

FX Daily: King dollar, queen krona The dollar is finding more strength thanks to a soft risk environment and attractive real rates after the bond selloff. We now see downside risks for EUR/USD potentially extending to 1.02 in a bond sell-off acceleration. SEK is emerging as a big outlier, and we suspect Riksbank FX hedging is behind that, watch for action around 10:00 am BST this morning.   USD: Unstoppable strength The dollar is enjoying another widespread rally, shrugging off yesterday’s unconvincing US consumer confidence figures while being boosted by a round of defensive re-positioning amid a deteriorating risk environment. Furthermore, the recent treasury selloff has kept fuelling the real rate attractiveness of the dollar, reinforcing the greenback’s role as the go-to currency in the current market’s environment. Federal Reserve speakers have also thrown some hawkish comments into the mix. Neel Kashkari confirmed his notably hawkish stance saying that one more hike is needed even in a soft-landing scenario, and Michelle Bowman has also pointed in the direction of more tightening. Market pricing has, however, remained stuck in a less hawkish position than the recent dot plot projections – less than a 50% chance of another hike this year and the effective rate being cut to 4.67%. So, there are two lingering upside risks for the dollar stemming purely from the rate market: one being generated from higher longer-dated yields, one from a potential hawkish repricing of short-term rate expectations upholding short-term swap rates. We discuss those risks from a EUR/USD perspective in this article, where we conclude there is more room for a USD rally coming from back-end treasury underperformance rather than another big move in USD short-term swap rates. That’s because the gap between the December 2024 Fed Funds rate market pricing and the 2024 dot plot is much smaller compared to what it was back in June (and throughout the summer). Today, the US calendar includes durable goods orders for the month of August and another speech by the arch-hawk Neel Kashkari. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a town hall tomorrow, although it is unclear whether he will touch upon monetary policy issues. The next level to watch in DXY is the 106.82 November 2022 highs, although we have seen the index rise comfortably through key levels, and upside risks now extend to the 107.00/107.50 area should the US bond market sell-off accelerate further.

FX Daily: Back to the status quo The quarter-end flows effect has faded. Markets are steadily back on a short-bond/long-dollar track, helped by an improvement in US ISM manufacturing and hawkish Fed comments. EUR/USD and GBP/USD look on track to test the 1.0400 and 1.2000 support levels. Meanwhile, the RBA's new governor sent a message of continuity and added pressure on AUD.   USD: Reclaiming the crown We had pointed at quarter-end flows as the likely cause for dollar weakness into the end of last week, and yesterday’s price action set markets back on the short-bonds/long-USD track that has been the norm since mid-July. Two factors have helped this narrative re-consolidate along with the quarter-end effects fading: an improving ISM manufacturing and hawkish Fedspeak. US September ISM manufacturing beat expectations yesterday, climbing to 49.0 from 47.6. S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs for September were also revised higher to 49.8. As discussed in this note, this is the 11th consecutive ISM manufacturing read in contractionary territory (sub-50). Still, the improvement to the 49.0 level and the close correlation with GDP means we might see a very respectable 4.0% annualised growth print for the third quarter. That would surely boost the Federal Reserve's soft-landing view for the economy. In the past few days, we have also heard FOMC hawks becoming increasingly vocal about the prospect of more rate hikes in what appeared to be a 'rate protest', with markets only pricing in a 50% implied probability of another rate increase to a peak despite that being part of the dot plot projections. Loretta Mester hit the headlines with a call for another hike this year, following Michelle Bowman’s suggestion that multiple hikes are still needed. Michael Barr struck a more moderate tone but did not rule out another hike. The USD 2-year swap rate climbed back above 5.0% yesterday, which might now work as a floor with the Fed sending hawkish messages and barring a turn for the worst in US data in the near term. The residual gap between the dot plot projections and market pricing for 2023 and 2024 also indicates good chances that USD short-term rates can build some support. Expect markets to focus primarily on August JOLTS job openings figures today, the only highlight in the US data calendar. Raphael Bostic – a fairly dovish voice as of late – is the only scheduled Fed speaker. Volatility in back-end yields should continue to determine the direction of FX moves. Another bearish leg to 4.75%+ in US 10-year bonds can probably keep DXY on track to hit 108.00 in the near future.    

FX Daily: EMFX surfs in a sea of green It seems investors are starting to think that the Fed is done with rate hikes and are now starting to reduce underweight positions in risk assets, including emerging market currencies. This is dollar negative. Today's US jobs data will be a key determinate of whether this week's new trend has legs or will be quashed by strong hiring or wage numbers.   USD: Will NFP can feed into the Fed pause narrative? European investors face a sea of green as they survey global equity markets this morning. Decent 1-2% rallies in global equity benchmarks have been seen right through Europe, the US and Asia. Underpinning that move undoubtedly has been the drop in US rates, where investors are shifting away from the higher-for-longer Fed narrative which dominated in September and October. They now seem to be exploring the Fed pause/Fed peak story. For reference, pricing of 1m OIS USD rates in two years' time rose from just above 3% in June to a peak of 4.75% last month and has since dropped back to 4.17%. The move in rates has surely seen investors scale back some paid USD rates/long dollar positions and prompted an unwind of some favourite short currency positions in the EM and commodity space. That is why we think the Australian dollar is doing so well and we continue to see upside for a relative value trade in the region, long AUD/CNH. We also note with interest a big drop in USD/KRW overnight. The Korean won typically has a high beta on global equities (but not an attractive yield) and its sharp rally is a good barometer for the mood in the market. With Korean FX reserves falling for a third month in a row it seems Korean FX authorities have been supplying the market with FX liquidity, as have the likes of China and India – presumably along with Japan shortly too. We think the drop in USD/KRW helps define a broadly risk-on, soft dollar environment today. Whether this environment has further to run will be determined by today's October US jobs data. Despite the ridiculous inverse correlation with ADP (which might point to a +350k NFP number today) consensus is around +170/180k. Investors will also want to see whether last month's +336k figure gets revised lower. Consensus also sees a 0.3% month-on-month average earnings figure, but that should still bring the year-on-year down to 4.0%, the lowest since June 2021. Assuming no upside surprises today, we favour the dollar handing back a little further of its gains, especially against the high yielders (e.g., Mexico and Hungary) given the renewed interest in the carry trade.  DXY could drop to the 105.50/55 area today as long as the US jobs data is not too strong.  

FX Daily: Waiting for the Fed pushback FX markets are consolidating after a few risk-on days. We have seen some strange price action on the back of the RBA's 25bp hike and some mixed Chinese data. For today, it looks like a relatively quiet session, although the focus will be on how aggressively the line-up of Fed speakers wants to push back against the recent weakening of US financial conditions.   USD: Fed speakers will be in focus today FX markets have handed back a little more of their risk-on gains overnight, leaving the dollar marginally stronger. However, US ten-year Treasury yields are still down at 4.65% and last night's release of the Fed's Senior Loan Officers Survey serves as a reminder that credit conditions are tightening and lending growth is weakening – both of which are likely to weigh on the US economy over coming quarters. In quiet overnight developments, what stands out is the strange reaction in AUD/USD to the Reserve Bank of Australia's 25bp hike. The poor performance of AUD/USD may owe to positioning, or perhaps some read that if the RBA needs to restart its tightening cycle after a four-month pause, maybe the Fed does too. Yet, US rates have not moved much, and the Australian dollar also failed to gain ground on slightly better-than-expected Chinese import data. Perhaps the read here is that the market needs a lot more evidence before pushing on with the Fed pause/peak and weaker dollar scenario. Today, the US highlight will be Federal Reserve speakers, which run from 1:30 pm CET for most of the day. At issue will be whether the Fed chooses to push back against the loosening of US financial conditions. Recall that the tightening of financial conditions in mid-October prompted remarks such as the 'term premium is doing the tightening'. Now that these financial conditions have fully reversed that October spike, the Fed will presumably want to re-emphasise the risk of further rate hikes.  Risks look skewed to a mildly stronger dollar today. DXY closing above 105.50 undoes some of last week's bearish work. But from where we stand, it looks like DXY might bounce around in a broad 104.50-106.50 range into year-end.

FX Daily: Bond bears give new energy to the dollar A very soft 30-year Treasury auction and hawkish comments by Powell triggered a rebound in US yields and the dollar yesterday. Dynamics in the rates market will remain key while awaiting market-moving US data. In the UK, growth numbers in line with expectations, while in Norway, inflation surprised to the upside. USD: Auction and Powell trigger dollar rebound The dollar chased the spike in US yields yesterday following a big tailing in the 30-year Treasury auction and hawkish comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Speaking at the IMF conference, Powell warned against reading too much into the softer inflation figures and cautioned that the inflation battle remains long, with another hike still possible. If we look at the Fed Funds future curve, it is clear that markets remain highly doubtful another hike will be delivered at all, but Powell’s remarks probably represent the culmination of a pushback against the recent dovish repricing. Remember that in last week’s FOMC announcement, the admission that financial conditions had tightened came with the caveat that the impact on the economy and inflation would have depended on how long rates would have been kept elevated. The hawkish rhetoric pushed by Powell suggests that the Fed still prefers higher Treasury yields doing the tightening rather than hiking again, and that is exactly what markets are interpreting. The soft auction for long-dated Treasuries also signals the post-NFP correction in rates may well have been overdone and could set a new floor for yields unless data point to a worsening US outlook. Today’s highlights in the US calendar are the University of Michigan surveys. Particular focus will be on the 1-year inflation gauge, which is expected to fall from 4.2% to 4.0%. On the Fed side, we’ll hear from Lorie Logan, Raphael Bostic and Mary Daly. Dynamics across the US yield curve will have a big say in whether the dollar can hold on to its new gains. Anyway, we had called for a recovery in DXY to 106.00 as the Fed would have likely pushed back against the dovish repricing. The rebound in yields should put a floor under the dollar, but we suspect some reassurances from the data side will be needed for another big jump in the greenback.

FX Daily: Government shutdown averted The dollar continues to claw back some of Tuesday's losses after US October retail sales suggested that the consumer is still spending. Also helping has been the Senate's support of a stop-gap funding bill that kicks the risk of a government shutdown into 2024. Expect more rangy price action in FX markets today, with the focus on speakers and US claims data. USD: Bouncing around The dollar is drifting higher as investors continue to assess whether the large drop on Tuesday was the start of something meaningful or just more noise in an uncertain environment. We have heard a couple of Federal Reserve speakers still holding out the risk of a further hike, but for the time being, US money markets seem pretty confident that the Fed cycle is over and have now priced 90bp of easing in 2024. Yesterday's release of US October retail sales failed to kindle this week's dollar bear trend and the Senate's support for a stopgap funding bill has removed the risk of a dollar bearish government shutdown at midnight on Friday. Where does that leave us? Confidence that the Fed tightening cycle is over should be positive for the rest of the world currencies - especially those that are very sensitive to higher interest rates. Yet with overnight rates in the US at 5.4%, the dollar is an expensive sell and the bar is high to invest elsewhere. That is why - as we conclude in our 2024 FX Outlook: Waiting for the tide to come in - the dollar bear trend is going to take some time to build and its more intense period may not be until 2Q24. For today, the focus will be on the weekly jobless claims data and industrial production. Any spike in jobless claims could hit the dollar. We also have a few Fed speakers today - most from the hawkish end of the spectrum.  Look for DXY to trade in something like a 104.00-104.85 range for the short term.  

FX Daily: No turkey for dollar bears The Thanksgiving holiday means thin volumes and no US data releases today. We expect some stabilisation in EUR/USD after strong jobless claims fuelled the dollar rebound. Still, eurozone PMIs might trigger some fresh position-squaring events. In Sweden, we are slightly in favour of a Riksbank hike today, but it is a very close call given krona strength.   USD: Stronger into the Thanksgiving holiday The dollar rose for a second consecutive session yesterday, this time helped by a surprise drop in initial jobless claims to 209k from 233k: an indication of good labour market resilience ahead of the 8 December payrolls data, which will be key in setting the tone for FX into Christmas. University of Michigan inflation expectations were revised higher, although durable goods orders came in softer than expected in October, which probably limited the scope of the market impact of jobless claims. Today, FX flows will be subdued due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Equity and bond markets are closed, and there are no data releases in the US. Part of the rebound in the dollar observed over the past two sessions (especially on Tuesday) may well be related to some profit-taking on risk-on trades and more defensive positioning ahead of Thanksgiving. We think DXY can find some stabilisation around 104.00 into the weekend amid thinner trading volumes and a lack of market-moving data releases in the US.  

FX Daily: Euro remains the weakest link The dollar starts the week in mixed fashion. USD/JPY is trading at a new corrective low, while EUR/USD continues to lick its wounds after a torrid session on Friday. The highlight of this week's data calendar will be the November US jobs report on Friday; there are also central bank policy meetings in Canada and Poland USD: Powell speech provides some support The dollar turned a little higher on Friday - largely led by the drop in European currencies after investors latched onto some dovish comments from ECB officials. Also supporting the dollar later in the day, however, were comments from Fed Chair, Jay Powell.  He was much more equivocal than his colleague, Christopher Waller, who earlier in the week had signalled that the inflation battle was nearly won. Indeed, Powell's comments left in the prospects of further rate hikes - which very few in the market believe will materialise.  Against this backdrop will the dollar trade on US data this week. Given the blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting on December 13th, there will be no Fed speakers this week. Instead, the focus will be on some quite important data. Beyond today's Durable Goods Orders, tomorrow sees the release of US services ISM and the JOLTS job opening data. Do job openings correct back lower and suggest a better balance in the US labour market - a mild dollar negative? Wednesday then sees the discredited ADP jobs data ahead of Thursday's initial claims. But the main event of the week is the November NFP report on Friday. Consensus expects a modest +180k, an unchanged unemployment rate and steady average earnings. Given a propensity for investors to put money to work outside of the dollar, we think a consensus outcome would be a mild dollar negative. We think it would really have to be a strong number to put the idea of another Fed rate hike back on the table. We favour DXY trading a 103-104 range through the week and suspect that investors will have a bias to sell in the 104.00/104.20 area.

FX Daily: Yen back in the spotlight Ahead of tomorrow's US jobs data release, the short-term highlight in the FX market is the continued outperformance of the yen. This has nothing to do with a risk-averse environment (asset markets are bid) and everything to do with the Bank of Japan potentially ending its negative interest rate policy. It looks like the yen can hold its gains near term.   USD: Mixed environment, yen strength stands out FX markets remain relatively calm. One anomaly is that global risk assets (both bonds and equities) are doing quite well, but the dollar is staying quite bid. Normally one might expect the dollar to be easing gently lower in an environment like this. One explanation for this is that while interest rates are falling around the world (risk positive) they are actually falling faster overseas (especially in Europe) than in the US. Notably, EUR versus USD swap differentials are at the widest of the year and exposing the soft underbelly of EUR/USD. But the short-term highlight is the outperformance of the yen. The focus here, once again, is whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) plans to end eight years of negative interest rates when it meets on 18/19 December. The FX market has been here many times before with this story - only to be rudely disabused of its speculation every time. However, at ING we have pencilled in a BoJ rate hike in the second quarter of next year. Our suspicion is that speculation of a BoJ move at the 18 December meeting is premature since there is no accompanying Outlook Report - a report that could show CPI sustainably hitting 2% and justifying an end to negative rate policy. That said, USD/JPY could still drift to the 144.50/145.00 area over the next week as speculation continues to build about a December BoJ move. The underlying dollar story, however, will be determined, by tomorrow's US jobs report and next week's FOMC meeting. It looks like the US bond market is already pricing in a soft number - which warns perhaps of a firmer dollar if the data is not too weak. Yet we suspect that investors are in the mood to put money to work - noting a major pro-risk turning in the inflation and interest rate cycle - such that the dollar gets sold into any rally tomorrow.  For today, we doubt jobless claims will be a big driver of price action today. We will be interested to look at the October US consumer credit data after the close today to see whether record-high credit card interest rates are finally taking their toll on the US consumer.  DXY has been performing better this week, but we see a scenario where it stalls in the 104.25/50 area.    

FX Daily: Fed brings tidings of comfort and joy In a somewhat surprising move, the Fed has acknowledged recent disinflation trends and poured gasoline on the fire of easing expectations for 2024. The news has understandably been greeted by global asset markets, where stagflationary bets are being replaced by reflationary ones. This is broadly dollar negative. Look out for the ECB, BoE and SNB today.   USD: Fed softens stance earlier than we thought Last night's FOMC release, dot plots and press conference surprised us and the markets. Instead of the Federal Reserve pushing back against the 100-125bp of rate cuts priced by the market for 2024, the overall message was a softer one. In effect, it welcomed disinflation trends and fed into the narrative that if inflation is under control, why does the US economy need very restrictive monetary policy in the form of a real policy rate above 2%?  Asset markets responded very well to the prospect of the Fed releasing the handbrake on the US and global economy, with both bond and equity markets rallying broadly. For us in FX, we had not expected it this early but last night's dovish Fed shift triggered a massive bull steepening in the US curve – a move that is the centre piece of our call for a broadly lower dollar next year. US two-year Treasury yields fell 30bp and the 2-10 year Treasury curve bull-steepened by 12bp. As discussed in our 2024 FX Outlook, we think this shift towards a more reflationary policy setting stands to see outperformance of the undervalued commodity currencies, and again, overnight the under-valued Australian and New Zealand dollars led the pack. We are also pleased to see EUR/AUD 3% lower over the last month, a move we highlighted in our outlook. Looking ahead, the focus switches to four rate meetings in Europe and to what degree the likes of the European Central Bank or the Bank of England do a better job than the Fed in pushing back against easing expectations for next year. If indeed they do a better job, it will only add to rallies in EUR/USD and GBP/USD. And the Fed's dovish turn last night continues to trigger an unwind in yen short positions as USD/JPY falls further. Next Tuesday's Bank of Japan policy meeting is eagerly awaited. Even though we do not look for any material adjustment in BoJ policy next week, USD/JPY may still well drop to 140 beforehand. Away from policy rate meetings in Europe, today sees US November retail sales and the weekly initial claims. Given the market firmly has the easing bit between the teeth, any signs of weakness in this data could trigger another leg lower in the dollar.  DXY has support at 102.50/65 below which the 100.80/101.00 area looms large.

FX Daily: Fed brings tidings of comfort and joy In a somewhat surprising move, the Fed has acknowledged recent disinflation trends and poured gasoline on the fire of easing expectations for 2024. The news has understandably been greeted by global asset markets, where stagflationary bets are being replaced by reflationary ones. This is broadly dollar negative. Look out for the ECB, BoE and SNB today.   USD: Fed softens stance earlier than we thought Last night's FOMC release, dot plots and press conference surprised us and the markets. Instead of the Federal Reserve pushing back against the 100-125bp of rate cuts priced by the market for 2024, the overall message was a softer one. In effect, it welcomed disinflation trends and fed into the narrative that if inflation is under control, why does the US economy need very restrictive monetary policy in the form of a real policy rate above 2%?  Asset markets responded very well to the prospect of the Fed releasing the handbrake on the US and global economy, with both bond and equity markets rallying broadly. For us in FX, we had not expected it this early but last night's dovish Fed shift triggered a massive bull steepening in the US curve – a move that is the centre piece of our call for a broadly lower dollar next year. US two-year Treasury yields fell 30bp and the 2-10 year Treasury curve bull-steepened by 12bp. As discussed in our 2024 FX Outlook, we think this shift towards a more reflationary policy setting stands to see outperformance of the undervalued commodity currencies, and again, overnight the under-valued Australian and New Zealand dollars led the pack. We are also pleased to see EUR/AUD 3% lower over the last month, a move we highlighted in our outlook. Looking ahead, the focus switches to four rate meetings in Europe and to what degree the likes of the European Central Bank or the Bank of England do a better job than the Fed in pushing back against easing expectations for next year. If indeed they do a better job, it will only add to rallies in EUR/USD and GBP/USD. And the Fed's dovish turn last night continues to trigger an unwind in yen short positions as USD/JPY falls further. Next Tuesday's Bank of Japan policy meeting is eagerly awaited. Even though we do not look for any material adjustment in BoJ policy next week, USD/JPY may still well drop to 140 beforehand. Away from policy rate meetings in Europe, today sees US November retail sales and the weekly initial claims. Given the market firmly has the easing bit between the teeth, any signs of weakness in this data could trigger another leg lower in the dollar.  DXY has support at 102.50/65 below which the 100.80/101.00 area looms large.

FX Daily: A dollar rally to start the New Year The dollar jumped yesterday as investors started to return from the long Christmas break. Markets are unwinding some dovish bets, and questioning stretched equity valuations, ultimately favouring defensive bets in FX. The dollar also tends to seasonally outperform at the start of the year. Today, the focus moves back to data, as well as the FOMC minutes.   USD: Dollar seasonally strong in January and February Defensive bets dominated in global markets as investors returned from the long Christmas break. This was particularly evident in the FX market, as the dollar corrected sharply higher yesterday to the detriment of European currencies. The tendency of dollar selling and European FX buying that emerged in December was triggered by the dovish pivot at the December FOMC, but seasonal factors also played a role. The dollar tends to underperform at the end of the year, likely due to some tax-related flows from US corporations: DXY weakened in December in each of the past seven years. While the seasonality factor isn’t as strong, January tends to be a good month for the dollar, with DXY having risen on average 0.4% in the past 20 years. February has shown a stronger positive seasonality pattern, with DXY having appreciated in each of the past seven years. The dollar strength in the early part of the year is often associated with the December tax flows by US corporates being reverted, and while expectations of a firmer dollar at the start of the year (which we agree with) could have exacerbated yesterday’s USD buying, the key factor remains Federal Reserve dovish bets against the backdrop of stretched equity valuations after a strong year for US stocks, in particular in the tech sector. We have observed some tentative unwinding of dovish bets as trading resumed: interestingly, the Fed Funds futures curve no longer fully prices in a March cut (21bp at the moment). As trading volumes pick back up this week, US calendar events will also offer direction to investors. Today, the Fed releases the minutes of the December FOMC, which should shed some light on the reasoning behind the dovish revision of the Dot Plot. Given the strong dovish reception by the market after the December Fed announcement, there is a risk of the minutes preventing further dovish bets as some conditionality (in terms of economic data developments) for easing policy emerges in the minutes. Today also sees the release of JOLTS job openings for November and the December ISM manufacturing, and consensus is positioned for a good print in both releases. We are inclined to think that the dollar can hold on to most of yesterday’s gains in the next couple of days, as data may prove benign and investors favour defensive positions ahead of Friday’s US payrolls – which are expected to print a respectable 170k. DXY may hover around the 102 gauge into the payrolls. Beyond the very short term, we still expect a further dollar decline to materialise this year as the deterioration in the economic outlook forces large Fed cuts, but the pace of USD depreciation should be more moderate in 1H24 compared to November/December 2023.  

FX Daily: Waiting on central bankers to shake data-resistant markets Investors have cemented Fed easing expectations despite some hotter-than-expected US data. We suspect a market reluctant to price out rate cuts will need strong words from the Fed – perhaps Powell himself – to reconnect rate expectations with data. Meanwhile, USD may stay rangebound. This week, Lagarde will speak in Davos, and UK CPI should slow further.   USD: Rate expectations still disjointed from data The first half of January has shown a dislocation between rate expectations and data in the US. The two most important data points for the Federal Reserve, labour and CPI inflation figures, both came in hotter than expected. PPI was a bit softer than consensus on Friday, but that is not enough to justify markets’ reluctance to price out Fed easing. The Fed funds future curve prices in 21bp of cuts in March, and 168bp by year-end. Our view remains that the Fed won’t start cutting before May, and that the total easing package will be 150bp. Accordingly, the rally in short-term USD rates appears overdone, and weakness in the front part of the USD curve should support some recovery in the dollar. However, we suspect that the data may prove insufficient to trigger a USD rebound for now; the consensus view of a dollar decline later this year seems to be making investors keen to sell dollar rallies. Also, the Fed probably needs to send a clearer message that the latest data does not justify the kind of aggressively dovish view embedded in money market pricing. There are a few more Fed speakers lined up this week, but perhaps dollar bears will want to hear it from Fed Chief Jerome Powell, who is not scheduled to speak until the 31 January FOMC announcement. Incidentally, the US data calendar isn’t very busy this week. Retail sales and the University of Michigan inflation expectations will attract the most attention along with jobless claims - which came in well below expectations last week, reinforcing the narrative of a still-tight labour market. We think the dollar will be driven more by other events than data this week, barring major surprises. First, the results of the election in Taiwan have raised again the delicate question of Taipei-Beijing relationships, with tensions among the two seen as a major risk for Asian and global risk sentiment this year. The dollar might benefit from some outflows from exposed EM FX. The situation in the Gulf also looks rather volatile after the US and UK military operations last week, even though the impact on oil prices has been muted so far.   Domestically, we’ll monitor the market reaction to the business tax relief extension currently being discussed in the US Congress. The impact of fiscal support may turn out to be negative for risk sentiment – and positive for the dollar – as markets see a greater risk of sticky inflation and a lower chance of Fed rate cuts. We think the dollar is more at risk of a rebound than a further correction from these levels, although the chances of another rangebound trading week in FX (DXY still hovering in the 102/103 region) are high.

FX Daily: Central bank meetings and US GDP in focus FX markets start the week in quiet fashion. The highlight this week will be central bank meetings in many parts of the world, including Japan and the eurozone. No major changes are expected in developed market monetary policy, but decent fourth quarter US GDP data could see US interest rates back up a little further, keeping the dollar supported.   USD: Dollar can stay supported The dollar looks to be trading in a supported fashion. This year's backup in short-term rates has reined in some of the pro-risk sentiment that dominated markets late last year. This backup in rates has largely been driven by central bankers saying they are in no rush to cut rates. After the informal commentary seen over recent weeks, this week will start to see the formal communication as central banks meet in Japan (Tuesday), Canada (Wednesday), and the eurozone and Norway (Thursday). Like many, we think the earthquake in Japan makes it too early for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to unwind its Yield Curve Control this week. In fact, there have been surprisingly few source stories ahead of this particular meeting, even though we will see a crucial set of new forecasts for prices and activity. Assuming the BoJ springs no surprise, USD/JPY should continue to hover around 148. For the dollar this week, our macro team forecasts above-consensus fourth quarter GDP on Thursday. This could see the market further pare back Federal Reserve easing expectations this year. The market currently attaches a 43% chance of a cut in March and an easing cycle this year now worth 115bp. An interesting aside. Some US banks are proponents of the March Fed cut because the Fed will probably not be renewing its Bank Term Funding Programme in early March. Currently, it seems that some US banks are using the facility to borrow cheaply (4.87% p.a.) and park money at the Fed (5.30%). The thinking goes that a rate cut in March could smooth funding conditions for the regional banks. We do not subscribe to this view and maintain a call for the first rate cut in May. Beyond the US GDP data this week, Friday sees December personal consumption data, where the deflator is again seen at 0.2% month-on-month. This could deliver a benign end to the week. In all, we would say it looks like a range-bound week for the dollar where DXY could trade out something like a 103-104 range. That will continue to see the market interested in carry, and we note that the Turkish lira and the Indian rupee have still managed to deliver year-to-date total positive returns against the dollar – in a broadly bid dollar environment.

FX Daily: Asia in the driver's seat The dollar is softer and pro-cyclical currencies are following the yuan higher after news that China is preparing a CNY 2tn rescue package for the stock market. The BoJ revised inflation expectations lower but signalled further progress towards the target, keeping anticipation for a hike in June alive. We expect New Zealand CPI to be soft tonight.   USD: China and Japan in focus The dollar has been mostly moved by developments from outside of the US since the start of the week. China remains the centre of attention before key central bank meetings in the developed world. Risk sentiment was boosted overnight as the Chinese government is reportedly considering a large CNY 2tn package to support the struggling stock markets. The rescue plan should be mostly targeted to the Hang Seng stock exchange, which has sharply underperformed global equities of late. This is a strong message that conveys Beijing’s intention to artificially support Chinese markets in spite of the deteriorating economic outlook in the region, and it is reported that other measures are under consideration. It does appear a temporary solution, though. Ultimately, stronger conviction on a Chinese economic rebound is likely necessary to drive a sustainable recovery in Chinese-linked stocks. For now, the FX impact has been positive; USD/CNY has dropped to 7.16/7.17 and we are seeing gains being spread across pro-cyclical currencies as safe-haven flows to the dollar are waning. Doubts about the impact of Beijing rescue package’s effects beyond the short-term automatically extend to the FX impact. It does seem premature to call for an outperformance of China-linked currencies (like AUD and NZD) and softening in the dollar on the back of this morning’s headlines. Another important development in Asian markets overnight was the Bank of Japan policy announcement. In line with our expectations and market consensus, there were no changes to the yield curve control, and forward guidance remained unchanged. Inflation projections were revised lower from 2.8% to 2.4% for the fiscal year starting in April. The revision was mostly a consequence of declining oil prices, and the inflation path continues to show an overshoot of the target for some time. All this was largely expected, and markets are focusing on Governor Kazuo Ueda’s claim that Japan has continued to inch closer to the inflation goals, keeping expectations for an eventual end to the ultra-dovish policy stance some time this year. The yen is experiencing a rebound which is likely boosted its oversold conditions. Money markets currently price in a 10bp rate hike in June. Extra help from a declining USD this morning might push USD/JPY a bit lower (below 147) today, but we suspect that markets may favour defensive USD positions as the Fed meeting approaches. Domestically, the only release to watch today in the US is the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index, which will give some flavour about the state of the sector ahead of tomorrow’s S&P Global PMIs. DXY may stabilise slightly below 103.00 once the China-led risk rally has settled.

FX Daily: Fed cancels the free lunch European FX markets will today be monitoring how US asset markets react to the news that the Fed will not be renewing its Bank Term Funding Program. US regional banks will be in focus here. Elsewhere, the focus will be on what should be a decent 4Q23 US GDP figure and central bank meetings in the eurozone, Norway, Turkey and South Africa.   USD: Let's see how the US regional banks do today FX markets continue in their slightly risk-averse mode, where some of the investors' favourite high-yield currencies - such as the Mexican peso and the Hungarian forint - remain under some pressure.  This is despite global equity markets doing reasonably well. In short, we continue to see a very mixed investment environment and one in which conviction views can be dangerous. Looking ahead today, there are two US themes to focus on. The first is the Federal Reserve's announcement last night that its Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) would end as scheduled on 11 March. And effective immediately, banks will be charged the rate paid on Fed reserve balances (around 5.40%) rather than the prior one-year USD OIS +10 bp (around 4.88%) to borrow money from the facility. This cancels the free lunch of banks borrowing at the BTFP and parking it at the Fed. The question is how US regional bank equity prices react to this news today. We presume that the Fed has a good handle on this such that these regional banks do not come under stress again. But let's see how this group trades today and whether it ushers in a new, potentially risk-off tone in US markets. The second focus is the 4Q23 US GDP data. We are looking at an above-consensus 2.5% quarter-on-quarter annualised figure. Consensus is now 2.0%. In theory that should be dollar-positive, but not necessarily risk-negative because the price data is far more important to the Fed right now. On that topic, Friday sees the December core PCE deflator (expected at a subdued 02.% month-on-month), while 13 February remains a major day for calendars in the release of the January CPI figure and the 2023 annual CPI revisions. Given also the event risk of the US quarterly refunding on Monday as well as the CPI release on 11 February, we doubt investors will want to commit much capital just yet. Instead, then, we think rangebound trading is the order of the day, with little follow-through should the dollar look particularly bid or offered. 102.75-103.75 looks the near-term DXY range.