Currency Speculators boost Japanese Yen bets to 15-week high while Canadian dollar bets drop sharply

Currency Speculators boost Japanese Yen bets to 15-week high while Canadian dollar bets drop sharply

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

currency futures open interest comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Currency market speculator bets overall were mixed this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover (Note: Russian Ruble positions have not been updated by CFTC since March) had higher positioning this week while six markets had lower contracts for the week.

Leading the gains for currency markets was the Japanese yen (11,301 contracts) and the British pound sterling (2,349 contracts) with the Australian dollar (2,648 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,415 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (534 contracts) also showing positive changes on the week.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-19,097 contracts) and the Euro (-9,587 contracts) with the Brazil real (-2,868 contracts), Mexican peso (-489 contracts), Swiss franc (-349 contracts) and Bitcoin (-15 contracts) also showing lower speculator positions through June 21st.

Currency Position Notables:

Japanese Yen large speculator bets rose for the 6th straight week this week and this improvement has brought the overall speculator standing to the least bearish level of the past 15 weeks at -58,454 contracts. Speculators have trimmed a total of 52,000 contracts off of the total bearish position in these past six weeks after the standing hit -110,454 contracts on May 10th. Yen bets have been in bearish territory since March 13th of 2021 (67 weeks running) with the highest bearish level of the cycle occurring on April 12th at a total of -111,827 contracts.

Canadian dollar bets dropped sharply by -19,097 contracts this week and fell for the first time in the last five weeks. CAD speculator bets had risen over the previous four weeks by a total of +37,698 contracts. The decline this week brings the CAD speculator position into a virtual neutral level at an overall bullish position of just +4,105 contracts as the speculator position has yet to find a sustainable trend and has been alternating between bearish and bullish net positions over the past few months.

The US Dollar Index rose for a 3rd straight week this week and hit a new 5-year high level at +45,010 contracts. This is the first time the overall position has topped +45,000 contracts since March 21st of 2017 and the continued bullish sentiment for the DXY has pushed the US Dollar Index strength score (3-year range) to the very top of its range (100 percent – extreme bullish).

Euro positions fell for the third straight week and dropped to its most bearish level of the past 29 weeks. The strength score for the Euro has dropped to just a 30.2 percent and it seems the speculator positioning is catching up to the bearishness of the EURUSD exchange rate. The speculator net position had been at a twelve-week high on May 31st at a total of +52,272 contracts before dropping over the past three weeks to settle at -15,605 contracts this week.


Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, ranging from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish, below 20 percent is extreme bearish and 100 percent is the top of the range) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (99.7 percent) and the Brazilian Real (94 percent) are all in extreme bullish positions. On the bearish side, the Mexican Peso is the only currency currently in an extreme bearish position with a score of 15.9 percent.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese Yen (32.0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (21.8 percent) are leading the strength trends over the past six weeks. Both of these markets have overall bearish net positions but have seen the bearish sentiment cooling off strongly. The Mexican Peso leads the downside trends for another week with a -18.6 percent score.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 58,543 86 45,010 100 -46,746 2 1,736 36
EUR 671,718 70 -15,605 30 -18,182 71 33,787 30
GBP 228,266 57 -63,247 28 77,902 76 -14,655 25
JPY 218,076 67 -58,454 33 74,349 72 -15,895 21
CHF 37,669 16 -7,157 38 14,958 67 -7,801 31
CAD 140,047 23 4,105 44 -6,578 63 2,473 35
AUD 137,017 35 -40,606 47 44,608 52 -4,002 43
NZD 42,889 30 -5,423 62 8,756 44 -3,333 13
MXN 191,265 45 -26,870 16 22,977 82 3,893 60
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
BRL 68,858 65 44,345 94 -45,996 6 1,651 84
Bitcoin 13,537 77 1,046 100 -995 0 -51 12

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 534 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 88.2 2.9 7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 82.7 4.8
– Net Position: 45,010 -46,746 1,736
– Gross Longs: 51,606 1,676 4,522
– Gross Shorts: 6,596 48,422 2,786
– Long to Short Ratio: 7.8 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 1.6 35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.1 -15.2 -7.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 55.6 12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.4 58.3 7.7
– Net Position: -15,605 -18,182 33,787
– Gross Longs: 195,554 373,695 85,208
– Gross Shorts: 211,159 391,877 51,421
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.2 70.9 30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.9 7.0 12.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -63,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 77.6 7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.2 43.5 14.2
– Net Position: -63,247 77,902 -14,655
– Gross Longs: 28,470 177,170 17,735
– Gross Shorts: 91,717 99,268 32,390
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.4 75.8 25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.8 -10.3 2.1

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -58,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.4 71.6 10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.3 37.6 17.9
– Net Position: -58,454 74,349 -15,895
– Gross Longs: 35,864 156,248 23,099
– Gross Shorts: 94,318 81,899 38,994
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.9 71.9 21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.0 -24.7 -2.9

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.1 66.2 25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 26.5 46.4
– Net Position: -7,157 14,958 -7,801
– Gross Longs: 3,068 24,927 9,673
– Gross Shorts: 10,225 9,969 17,474
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 67.3 31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.8 -23.7 21.2

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 47.9 20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.2 52.6 18.9
– Net Position: 4,105 -6,578 2,473
– Gross Longs: 42,260 67,084 29,011
– Gross Shorts: 38,155 73,662 26,538
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.0 63.2 35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.7 -7.9 0.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,254 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.2 60.2 13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.8 27.7 16.6
– Net Position: -40,606 44,608 -4,002
– Gross Longs: 31,745 82,514 18,756
– Gross Shorts: 72,351 37,906 22,758
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.2 52.2 42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -1.9 3.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.2 60.8 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.8 40.3 12.8
– Net Position: -5,423 8,756 -3,333
– Gross Longs: 14,652 26,056 2,145
– Gross Shorts: 20,075 17,300 5,478
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.2 43.9 13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.7 -12.5 6.3

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.3 45.8 3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 64.3 33.8 1.3
– Net Position: -26,870 22,977 3,893
– Gross Longs: 96,147 87,609 6,317
– Gross Shorts: 123,017 64,632 2,424
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.9 82.4 59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.6 18.3 -1.1

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.7 14.6 4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.3 81.3 2.3
– Net Position: 44,345 -45,996 1,651
– Gross Longs: 55,599 10,020 3,238
– Gross Shorts: 11,254 56,016 1,587
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.0 6.4 84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.5 -3.9 4.7

 

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.5 0.6 7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.8 7.9 8.1
– Net Position: 1,046 -995 -51
– Gross Longs: 10,495 78 1,048
– Gross Shorts: 9,449 1,073 1,099
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.7 0.0 11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -11.9 -3.1

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

InvestMacro is an independent investing media website. Started in 2007 as a simple trading blog (as CountingPips.com) focused on global major currencies, InvestMacro has since steadily expanded and evolved. Our mission is to provide independent coverage of the relevant financial markets for global macro investors. All information and opinions are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.