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Major central banks to bring hike cycles to a close

We think that the aforementioned easing in inflation rates should herald an end to interest rate hikes for most of the major central banks in the first half of 2023. We think that the Federal Reserve will be done raising rates after its March meeting. At its final meeting of the year in December, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took its first baby steps towards ending its aggressive interest rate hike cycle, delivering a 50bp rate hike following four consecutive 75bp moves. In its ‘dot plot’, committee members indicated that an additional 75 basis points of hikes may be on the way this year, though futures are only pricing in 50. The key message was that rate cuts are not on the horizon any time soon, and are not expected until 2024.

In our view, both the European Central Bank and Bank of England will follow suit in ending their respective hiking cycles in mid-2023. The ECB was the most hawkish of the three major centra

What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 23.03.2022 21:33
Investors and traders alike are concerned about what investments they should make on behalf of their portfolios and retirement accounts. We, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to monitor stocks and commodities closely due to the Russia-Ukraine War, market volatility, surging inflation, and rising interest rates. Several of our subscribers have asked if changes in monitor policy may lead to a recession as higher rates take a bigger bite out of corporate profits.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. We review our charts for both stocks and commodities to see what we can learn from the most recent price action. Before we dive into that, let’s review the various stages of the market; with special attention given to expansion vs. contraction in a rising interest rate environment which you can see illustrated below.PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIOWe are keeping an especially close eye on the price action of the SPY ETF. The current resistance for the SPY is the 475 top that happened around January 6, 2022. This top was 212.5% of the March 23, 2020, low that was put in at the height of the Covid global pandemic.The SPY found support in the 410 area at the end of February. If you recall (or didn't know), 410 was the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8% percent of the Covid 2020 price drop. Now, after experiencing a nice rally back, of a little over 50%, we are waiting to see if the rally can continue or if rotation will occur, sending the price back lower.COMMODITY MARKETS SURGEDThe commodity markets experienced a tremendous rally due to fast-rising inflation, especially energy, metals, and food prices.The GSG ETF price action shows that we recently touched 200%, or the doubling of the April 21, 2020, low. Immediately following, similar to the SPY, the GSCI commodity index promptly sold off only to then find substantial buying support at the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8 percent of the starting low price of the bull trend. Resistance for the GSG is at 26, and support is 21.A STRENGTHENING US DOLLARThe strengthening US dollar can be attributed to investors seeking a safe haven from geopolitical events, surging inflation, and the Fed beginning to raise rates. The US Dollar is still considered the primary reserve currency as the greatest portion of forex reserves held by central banks are in dollars. Furthermore, most commodities, including gold and crude oil, are also denominated in dollars.Consider the following statement from the Bank of International Settlements www.bis.org ‘Triennial Central Bank Survey’ published September 16, 2019: “The US dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% of all trades.” The report also highlighted, “Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion three years earlier.” That’s a lot of dollars traded globally and confirms that we need to stay current on the dollars price action.Multinational companies are especially keeping a close eye on the dollar as any major shift in global money flows will seriously negatively impact their net profit and subsequent share value.The following chart by www.finviz.com provides us with a current snapshot of the relative performance of the US dollar vs. major global currencies over the past year:KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades earlier this week, two of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Podcast: The Weak Equity Market, Focus On Copper, The Euro Situation

Natural Gas Price Rises As Triggered By Putin’s Rhetoric That He Will ‘Demand Rouble Gas Payments’

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 24.03.2022 12:47
According to Investing.com Russia could require gas payment in roubles what clearly affects both Forex pairs (e.g. EUR/RUB) and natural gas price (TTF) which has increased by 31%. What’s more MOEX is back to the game after such a long break. Some companies have gained significantly already and many would like to know what’s ahead. Generally speaking Russian currency and Russia-associated markets are really volatile at the moment and there are many assets to watch in the following days. Let’s begin with natural gas price. Obviously monthly chart (yes, it’s been one month since the warfare started) shows the fluctuations caused by the start of invasion which took place on February 24th We may say that the true rise came few days later, as negotiations of cease-fire haven’t changed a thing and sanctions have begun to impact the markets. Further developments containing some signals of a ceasefire appeared not to coincide with the reality heading price of natural gas to a next rise. Natural Gas Price Chat (TTF) – monthly 24/02-23/03 - +31% Natural Gas Price Chart (TTF) Daily 22-23/03/22 +18.5% Russian Roubel (RUB) – Forex Charts +11% Monthly chart shows a huge decline and strengthening of RUB. EUR/RUB Chart - Monthly +6% EUR/RUB Chart - Daily (24h) Source/Data: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com  
Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.03.2022 15:23
The collapse of the Japanese yen continues, and so far, there are no signs of a trend reversal. The rise in the Yen is often linked to capital flight from risky assets, and the weakening is a sign of increased demand for risky assets. But that explanation hardly fits with what is happening now. We likely see the start of a significant reassessment by the markets of Japan's position in the financial system. In a worst-case scenario, this may turn into a debt crisis in the Land of the Rising Sun and be an even bigger disaster for financial markets than the eurozone debt crisis of a decade ago.The starting point for the weakening of the Yen was at the start of February. At that time, equities were in demand as a haven for capital to maintain the purchasing power of investments. The flow into equities was interrupted by the war in Ukraine but accelerated in the last couple of weeks on signs that these events have hyped up the processes that were taking place before. And these processes are now most visible in the dynamics of the Japanese yen against those currencies where the central bank can respond adequately to inflation.Since the start of February, the USDJPY has risen by 6.5%, and almost all of this increase has taken place since March 7th, taking the pair back to levels last seen at the end of 2015. A much more impressive rally is taking place in the Aussie and Kiwi against the Yen. Since the start of February, they have soared by more than 12%. So far this month, the strengthening is the largest in 11 years for AUDJPY and in more than 12 years for NZDJPY.The interest rate differential game, which was so beloved by traders in Japan before the global financial crisis, has found a second life. Australia and New Zealand have the economic potential to raise interest rates, as they are experiencing a surge in exports due to the boom in their export prices. However, the situation in Japan looks considerably more alarming, as Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen by 77 percentage points to 170% since the financial crisis. Permanent QE from the Bank of Japan has kept government debt costs down but doesn't solve the problem.In the last decade, Japan has turned into a net commodity importer due to its growing dependence on energy and metals and increasing competition from China and Korea. The exchange rate should act as a natural mechanism to stabilise trade in this situation.But this adjustment is difficult for debt-laden Japan because selling currency would de facto mean selling bonds denominated in that currency. Under these circumstances, the Bank of Japan will either have to openly accept that it will finance the government (i.e. increase purchases despite inflation) or soften QE. The first option risks triggering a historic revaluation of the Yen. The second option would deal a blow to the economy and finances by raising questions about whether Japan can service its debt.
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos on the front foot as rebound turns into new uptrend

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos on the front foot as rebound turns into new uptrend

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.03.2022 16:22
Bitcoin price set to touch $45,000 by tomorrow if current tailwinds keep supporting price action. Ethereum price set to rally another 12%, with bulls targeting $3,500.00XRP price undergoes consolidation as the next profit level is $0.90.Bitcoin price, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies are enjoying a calm week with tailwinds finally able to thrive without constant interruption from headlines about Ukraine or Russia. Markets are also starting to adjust to the situation, with no immediate or significant movements anymore triggered by headlines coming out. Expect to see more upside with several possible cryptocurrencies eking out the best week of the year thus far.Bitcoin price has a defined game plan with $44,088 as the target for today and $45,261 by the weekendBitcoin (BTC) price is on the front foot for a third consecutive day as the rally turns into a broader uptrend. The crucial thing will be to see where BTC price will close this week, as bears need to get weakened with several short squeezes and breakouts running stops from short-sellers. Despite being elevated, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still not near the 'overbought' level, providing enough incentive for bulls and investors to keep buying BTC price action.BTC price is set to hit $44,088.73 today, the level of the March 03 highs. If that is gained – and given the current tailwinds – markets will start to expect Bitcoin to eke out new highs for the month with still a week to go. This additional bullish element should help conclude a daily close above $44,088.73. A support test on that same level will trigger new inflows from investors and provide the needed juice to pump price action up to $45,261.84, topping $45,000.00.BTC/USD daily chartA tail risk comes from the big joint meeting today in Brussels, with Biden meeting NATO, the G7 and E.U. leaders. An embargo on gas is on the table and could roil markets if the E.U. decides to walk away from Russian gas supplies, opening up the possibility of further Russian retaliation in Ukraine. That would make global markets move back to risk-off mode, with Bitcoin price dropping back to support at $39,780.68, and intersecting with the green ascending trend line. Ethereum price targets $3,500 after bulls force a daily close above $3,018.55Ethereum (ETH) price is performing a 'classic long' trading plan today after bulls pushed a daily close above $3,018.55. With price action in ETH opening slightly above this level, this morning, the price has faded slightly back towards that same $3,018.55 level to find support and offer the opportunity for new bulls and investors to enter the market. Ethereum price will move back to the upside and continue its rally, which is currently looking more and more like an uptrend that could continue over a broader time frame.ETH price will therefore need to find support around $3,018.55 as the fade will need to be kept in check, as too large a fade could spook investors. Seeing as the current favourable tailwinds are quite broadly present in global markets, expect to see another uplift towards $3,200 and $3,391.52 depending on the number of new positive headlines acting as additional accelerators. With those moves, at least new highs for March will be printed and possibly for February, depending on how steep the rally can continue.ETH/USD daily chartThe risk for Ethereum price is that price action slips back below $3,018.55. That could open the door for bears to jump in again and run price action back to $2,835.83, which is the low of March 21 and the monthly pivot. An additional fail-safe system is the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $2,808.84 as an additional supportive factor to take into account.https://youtu.be/wgpCSH70SIQXRP price undergoes consolidation as the bullish breakout hits $0.90Ripple's (XRP) price has bears and bulls being pushed towards each other as the bodies of the candles from the past two sessions grow very thin. This points to bulls and bears fighting it out and neither yet having the upper hand. Bears are defending the area above $0.8390 from bulls running to $0.8791, and bulls are trying to defend their support at $0.7843. With lower highs and higher lows, the stage is set for a breakout that, seeing the current tailwinds, will probably favour bulls, and result in a quick move towards $0.8791.XRP price is thus set to print new highs for March. With the stock markets having their best performing week for this year, expect to see even more tailwinds spilling over to cryptocurrencies and bulls targeting $0.9110. At that level, bulls will run into the 200-day SMA which will possibly be the halting point of the current uptrend as investors will need to reassess the situation before they advance. Where global markets are at that point and how far off a peace treaty is between Russia and Ukraine will determine if bulls will advance towards $1.00 in XRP price.XRP/USD daily chartAlthough several statements suggest it is unlikely, should Putin be backed further into a corner, the use of nuclear weapons could cast a dark shadow on markets. Expect a massive drop in equities and cryptocurrencies with those headlines coming out, where XRP price will fall towards $0.7843 or even $0.7600. In the first case, the historic pivotal level will provide support and further down, the monthly pivot is set to intertwine with the 55-day SMA, which should be enough to catch any falling-knife action. https://youtu.be/ZWrKMd2CiL8
Crude Oil Holds Its Breath Ahead of World Summits

Crude Oil Holds Its Breath Ahead of World Summits

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.03.2022 16:46
Current levels of oil and petroleum products are high. Given that, what can explain such a surprising drop in US crude inventories?Energy Market UpdatesCommercial crude oil reserves in the United States fell much more than expected in the week ended March 18, according to figures released on Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).US crude inventories have shrunk by more than 2.5 million barrels, which implies greater demand and is obviously another bullish factor for crude oil prices. Such a decline in inventories is particularly remarkable as the American strategic reserves have also recorded a significant drop. This is the 25th consecutive week of falling strategic reserves since the Biden administration started to make those adjustments in an attempt to relieve the market.(Source: Investing.com)WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)Furthermore, some additional figures extracted from the same EIA report were released and surprised the markets.These are US Gasoline Reserves, which plunged by about 2.95 million barrels over a week, while the market was not even forecasting a two-million decline.(Source: Investing.com)Thus, US exports jumped by more than 30% compared to the previous week, not only due to large flows to Europe to replace Russian barrels, but also marked by a significant rebound in Asian demand.RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Beware that a NATO summit, a G7 summit, and a European Union summit are being held on Thursday, when the various countries could set a new round of sanctions against Moscow.So, how will black gold progress from now on? Do you think that the on-going negotiations with Iran and Venezuela could flood the market with additional barrels? Let us know in the comments!That’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Price Of Gold Nears $45k As Many Authorities Are Speaking Of Crypto

Price Of Gold Nears $45k As Many Authorities Are Speaking Of Crypto

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.03.2022 08:52
Bitcoin is trading above $44.1K on Friday, gaining 2.4% over the past day and 8.2% over the week. Increased inquiry for BTC Yesterday, the first cryptocurrency was in demand during the Asian and American sessions. The current values of BTC are consolidating in the area of 2-month extremes. In contrast to the previous test of these levels, this time, we see a smooth rise in the rate, indicating that the bulls still have some momentum. Also, over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has gained 2.4%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten have strengthened from 0.5% (XRP) to 7.4% (Solana). The exception is Terra, which is shedding 1.8%, correcting part of its gains in the first half of the week. According to CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market capitalization increased by 2.3% to $2 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.1 percentage points to 41.8%. The Fear and Greed Cryptocurrency Index added another 7 points to 47 and ended up in the neutral territory. Cardano leads the last week in terms of growth among top coins (+39%) as Coinbase added the possibility of staking cryptocurrency with a current estimated annual return of 3.75% per annum. Countries assess the risks of cryptos Credit Suisse reported that Bitcoin doesn't pose a threat to the banking sector as an alternative to fiat money and banking services. The CEO of BlackRock, one of the world's largest investment companies, noted that military actions in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia will increase the popularity of cryptocurrencies and accelerate their adoption. Despite the rally in global stocks over the past two weeks, financial conditions in the debt markets continue to deteriorate due to rising interest rates and inflation. Largely because of this, El Salvador has postponed the issuance of bitcoin bonds in anticipation of more favorable conditions. Since very active steps to raise key rates are expected in the next year and a half, and Bitcoin is far from the highs, it is unlikely that such bonds will be issued soon. The Bank of England intends to tighten supervision of cryptocurrencies due to the financial risks that their adoption carries. However, the Central Bank urged commercial banks to exercise maximum caution when dealing with these extremely volatile assets.
Is There Any Gold in Virtual Worlds Like Metaverse?

Is There Any Gold in Virtual Worlds Like Metaverse?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.03.2022 12:15
Imagine all the people… living life in the Metaverse. Once we immerse ourselves in the digital sphere, gold may go out of fashion. Or maybe not?Do you already have your avatar? If not, maybe you should consider creating one, as the Metaverse is coming! What is the Metaverse? It is a digital, three-dimensional world where people are represented by avatars, a network of 3D virtual worlds focused on social connection, the next evolution of the internet, “extended reality,” and the latest buzzword in the marketplace since Facebook changed its name to Meta. If you still have no idea what I’m talking about, you can watch this or just Spielberg’s Ready Player One.The idea of personalities being uploaded online is an intriguing concept, isn’t it? In this vision, people meet with others, play, and simply hang out in a digital world. Imagine friends turning group chats on Messenger or WhatsApp into group meetups in the Metaverse of family gatherings in virtual homes. Ultimately, people will probably be doing pretty much everything there, except eating, sleeping, and using the restroom.Sounds scary? For people in their 30s and older who were fascinated by The Matrix, it does. However, this is really happening. The augmented reality technology market is expected to grow from $47 billion in 2019 to $1.5 trillion in 2030, mainly thanks to the development of the Metaverse. China’s virtual goods and services market is expected to be worth almost $250 billion this year and $370 billion in the next four years.In a sense, it had to happen as the next phase of the digital revolution. You see, we now experience much of life on the two-dimensional screens of our laptops and smartphones. The Metaverse moves us from a flat and boring 2D to a 3D virtual universe, where we can visualize and experience things with a more natural user interface. Let’s take shopping as an example. Instead of purchasing items on Amazon, customers could enter a virtual shop, see and touch all products in 3D, and buy whatever they wanted (actually, Walmart launched its own 3D shopping experience in 2018).OK, we get the idea, but why does Metaverse matter, putting aside sociological or philosophical issues related to transferring our minds into the digital world? Well, it might strongly affect every aspect of business and life, just as the internet did earlier. Here are a couple of examples. Famous brands, like Dolce & Gabbana, are designing clothes and jewelry for the digital world. Some artists are giving concerts in virtual reality. You could also visit some museums virtually, and instead of taking a business trip, you can digitally teleport to remote locations to meet with your co-workers’ avatars.Finally, what does the Metaverse imply for the gold market? Well, it’s difficult to grasp all the possible implications right now. However, the main threat is clear: as people immerse deeper and deeper into the digital world, gold could become obsolete for many users. Please note that cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are and will continue to be widely used as payment methods in the Metaverse.However, there are some caveats here. First, the invention and spread of the internet didn’t sink gold. Actually, the internet enabled gold to be widely traded by investors all over the world. Just take a look at the chart below. Although gold was in a bear market in the 1990s and struggled during the dot-com bubble, it rallied after the bubble burst.Second, the digital world didn’t kill the analog reality. Despite digital streaming of music, vinyl record sales soared last year, reaching a record high in a few decades. The development of the Metaverse could trigger a similar backlash and a return to tangible goods like gold.Third, some segments of the Metaverse look like bubbles. Maybe I’m just too old, but why the heck would anybody spend hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars to buy items in the virtual world? These items include virtual real estates (CNBC says that sales of real estate in the metaverse topped $500 million last year and could double this year), digital pieces of art or even tweets (yup, the founder of Twitter sold the first tweet ever for just under $3 million)! It does not make any sense to me, as I can right-click and download a copy of the same digital files (like a PNG file of a grey pet rock) for which people pay thousands and millions of dollars.Of course, certain items could increase the utility of the game or virtual experience, but my bet is that at least some buyers simply speculate on prices, expecting that they will be able to resell these items to greater fools. When this digital gold rush ends – and given the Fed’s tightening cycle, it may happen in the not-so-distant future – real gold could laugh last.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
S&P 500 Has Been Moving Up For A While. What's Next?

S&P 500 Has Been Moving Up For A While. What's Next?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 28.03.2022 15:55
  Stocks extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, but this week we may see some more uncertainty and a possible profit-taking action. The S&P 500 index gained 0.53% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its short-term uptrend after breaking above the 4,500 level. It gained over 380 points from the Mar. 14 local low of around 4,162. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we may see another correction and a profit-taking action at some point. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but investors were recently jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the index is expected to open virtually flat after an overnight advance followed by its retracement. The nearest important resistance level is at around 4,550-4,600, marked by the previous local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450. The S&P 500 index trades closer to its January-February local highs along the 4,600 level, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Remains Above the 4,500 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It is trading close to the new local high. Potential resistance level is at around 4,585, marked by the previous highs. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. We are maintaining our profitable long position from the 4,340 level, as we are still expecting a bullish price action in the near-term. However, to protect our gain, we decided to move the stop-loss (take profit) and price target levels higher. (our premium Stock Trading Alert includes details of our trading position along with the stop-loss and profit target levels) (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely open virtually flat this morning. However, the futures contract retraced its overnight advance, so we may see more uncertainty and a potential profit-taking action. The war In Ukraine remains a negative factor for the markets. The global markets will also be waiting for this Friday’s monthly jobs data release. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index extended its uptrend on Friday; this morning the futures contract retreated from its new local high. We are maintaining our profitable long position (opened on Feb. 22 at 4,340), but we moved stop-loss (take profit) and price target levels higher. We are still expecting an advance from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Crypto trading volume exceeds $100 billion in 24 hours as bulls flock to the market

Crypto trading volume exceeds $100 billion in 24 hours as bulls flock to the market

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.03.2022 16:34
Proponents noted a 63.07% spike in the total transaction volume of cryptocurrencies across exchanges. Coinmarketcap data reveals a month-on-month increase of 4.75% in crypto trading volume. Bitcoin price crossed $47,000, fueled by $200 million shorts liquidated across exchanges. Bitcoin price is rallying, fueled by a frenzy of massive short liquidations on crypto exchanges. Proponents believe bulls have flocked to the market, as transaction volume exceeded $100 billion. Bitcoin price pushes past $47,000 in recent rally Bitcoin price crossed key resistance to hit a high above $47,000 in a rally fueled by the liquidation of millions of short positions. Analysts at the crypto intelligence platform Santiment observed a massive liquidation of shorts across exchanges at 1 pm and 6 pm UTC across crypto exchanges on March 27, 2022. Analysts argue that Bitcoin’s recent price rally to $47,000 was a response to liquidation in large quantities over the weekend. The average funding rate entered the long zone, where uncertainty among market participants increased. Therefore, analysts conclude that Bitcoin shorts have fueled the asset’s ongoing rally. Bitcoin and altcoin shorts liquidatedColin Wu, a Chinese journalist, reported a spike in the total transaction volume of cryptocurrencies, exceeding $100 billion over the past 24 hours. Wu referred to data from Coinmarketcap and observed a 63.07% increase in crypto transaction volume compared to March 26, 2022. The total crypto market value now exceeds $2.12 trillion. Historically, analysts have witnessed high transaction activity when large wallet investors flock to the market or scoop up crypto. Bloomberg analysts argue that Bitcoin looks overbought, compared to its 50-day Moving Average. Bitcoin price crossed key resistance at $45,000 in the current rally, erasing its losses for the year. FXStreet analysts have evaluated Bitcoin price and predicted the start of a new uptrend in the asset, as it crossed the $45,000 level.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: Shareholders to vote on TSLA stock split

Tesla Stock News and Forecast: Shareholders to vote on TSLA stock split

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.03.2022 16:34
Tesla stock surges on news of a potential stock split dividend.TSLA is up at $1,066 of +5.6% in Monday premarket trading.Tesla stock has rallied sharply from early March lows.Tesla stock (TSLA) is back to the top of the social media chatter on Monday, usurping GameStop and AMC in the process. The stock is surging this morning on news of a potential stock split dividend. Tesla previously did a 5-for-1 stock split back in August 2020, and other companies have followed suit, notably Amazon. This makes it easier for retail investors to own the stock when it has a more affordable share price.Tesla Stock News: Stock split imminent?Tesla's board of directors has already approved the plan to split the shares for a stock dividend and will put it to a vote of the shareholders. The news was well-received by retail shareholders who tend to be more active in the premarket than other holders. A stock dividend is exactly what it sounds like. Instead of receiving cash, shareholders receive new shares in the company. This means companies do not use up cash to fund the dividend. Stock dividends are usually dilutive to earnings per share (EPS) as more shares are in issue after the event. Tesla is up nearly 6% before the open. It is not all plain sailing though for the EV giant as more Chinese covid lockdowns are announced. Tesla will close its Shanghai giga plant for at least a day on the back of lockdowns in the city. Tesla Stock ForecastA powerful rally with the next target now set at $1,210. This would set up Tesla's (TSLA) stock to break to all-time highs. Currently, on the longer-term time horizon, the narrative is still bearish with a series of lower highs and lower lows. So breaking $1,210 turns Tesla bullish on all time horizons. Naturally, it is already bullish in the short term after last week's strong rally. Holding above $945 is the key pivot for medium and long-term traders. TSLA 20-hour chartThere is a short-term pivot at $1,000, with high volume at this level. Below sees a volume gap to $945, the key as mentioned above. Tesla chart, 15-minute
Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 28.03.2022 21:32
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.VIX – VOLATILITY S&P 500 INDEX – CBOE – DAILY CHARTSPY RALLIES +10%The SPY has enjoyed a sharp rally back up after touching its Fibonacci 1.618% support based on its 2020 Covid price drop. Money has been flowing back into stocks as investors seem to be adapting to the current geopolitical environment and the change in global central bank lending rate policy.Resistance on the SPY is the early January high near 475, while support remains solidly in place at 414. March marks the 2nd anniversary of the 2020 Covid low that SPY made at 218.26 on March 23, 2020.SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST - ARCA – DAILY CHARTBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY RECORD-HIGH $538,949!Berkshire Hathaway is up +20.01% year to date compared to the S&P 500 -4.68%. Berkshire’s Warren Buffet has also been on a shopping spree, and investors seem to be comforted that he is buying stocks again. Buffet reached a deal to buy insurer Alleghany (y) for $11.6 billion and purchased nearly a 15% stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $8 billion.These acquisitions seem to be well-timed as insurers and banks tend to benefit from rising interest rates, and Occidental generates the bulk of its cash flow from the production of crude oil.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. With that said, Berkshire is a classic example of not fighting the market. As Berkshire continues to make new highs, its’ trend is up!BRK.A – BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. - NYSE – DAILY CHARTCOMMODITY DEMAND REMAINS STRONGInflation continues to run at 40-year highs, and it appears that it will take more than one FED rate hike to subdue prices. Since price is King, we definitely want to ride this trend and not fight it. It is always nice to buy on a pullback, but the energy markets at this point appear to be rising exponentially. The XOP ETF gave us some nice buying opportunities earlier at the Fibonacci 0.618% $71.78 and the 0.93% $93.13 of the COVID 2020 range high-low.Remember, the trend is your friend, as many a trader has gone broke trying to pick or sell a top before its time! Well-established uptrends like the XOP are perfect examples of how utilizing a trailing stop can keep a trader from getting out of the market too soon but still offer protection in case of a sudden trend reversal.XOP – SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORE & PRODUCT – ARCA – DAILY CHARTKNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades last week, four of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Furthermore, successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Bitcoin has become a leading indicator of investor sentiment

Bitcoin has become a leading indicator of investor sentiment

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 29.03.2022 08:51
BTC is up 4% on Monday, ending the day around $48K, and corrected by about 1% to $47.5K on Tuesday morning. Ethereum was up 1.8% in the last 24 hours to $3.4K. Terra is a leader of the day According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 1% over the day, to $2.15 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1 points to 42.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed rose by 11 points over the day, to 60, and moved from neutral level to the "greed" grade. On Tuesday, the index dropped to 56 points. Among the leading altcoins, Terra soared by 10%, Doge corrected by 2%. In most others, there is a slight correction in the growth of the last days, but they are in positive territory over the last day. Bitcoin continued to rise on Monday after it broke through the strong resistance of the February highs around $45K in the previous evening. By the end of the day, BTC has renewed the highs of early January above $48K, having won back the decline since the beginning of the year. Bitcoin is correlating with S&P500 The growth of the first cryptocurrency rested on the 200-day moving average ($48.2K). Confident consolidation above it promises to strengthen and expand the growth of the entire crypto market and breathe fresh impetus into the growth of bitcoin. In December, we saw a false break, but then the price levels were higher, and corrective sentiment intensified in the stock markets. Now Bitcoin is growing along with the rise of stock indices and often even acts as a leading indicator of investor sentiment. According to Arcane Research, BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 stock indicator recently hit a 17-month high. According to CoinShares, institutions invested $193 million in crypto funds last week, and it was the most significant amount in three months. Glassnode believes that the Bitcoin trend has already changed to bullish, as evidenced by the increase in the number of addresses accumulating BTC.
The EUR/USD Cross-Currency Pair Rises For The Fourth Consecutive Day

GBP: BoE Expected to Raise Yields, US Dollar (USD) Strengthens across the board - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.05.2022 09:24
Summary: USD Trumps all other currencies on the forex market today. SNB Sticks to loose monetary policy. BoE expected to raise treasury yields. EUR weakens further over the weekend. Since the market opened today the EURO has weakened against the USD. The USD strengthening comes with expectations of the hawkish Fed pushing U.S yields higher in May, this comes in the fight against the highest inflation the US has seen in 40 years. In addition, the European Central Bank is not expected to increase yields until their Asset Purchasing Program (APP) comes to a close. The current market sentiment is mixed for this major currency pair. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump The EUR, BoE Expected To Increase Interest Rates, SNB Remains Dovish, South African Rand (ZAR) Performance    Mixed market sentiment for EUR/GBP. GBP weakens against the EURO today. The Eurozone and Germany are expected to announce their GDP figures this week which could likely improve investor sentiment in the EURO. The market sentiment for this currency pair is mixed, this comes as the lockdowns in China and the Russia-Ukraine conflict are current aspects that affect both of these currencies. EUR/GBP Price Chart Swiss National Bank Sticks to their loose monetary policy. The USD strengthening against the CHF comes in anticipation of the Fed further increasing U.S yields in May. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is not budging on their loose monetary policy amidst beliefs that this period of high inflation is temporary, causing the Swiss Franc to weaken. USD/CHF Price Chart Bank of England (BoE) expected to raise yields. Since the market opened this morning, the market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish. Although the price is decreasing, the bullish sentiment comes with expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will announce an increase in treasury yields by 25 basis points at Thursday's announcements. The Fed is also expected to raise yields, this is causing the price to show volatility. GBP Price Chart   Read next: Euro (EUR) Continues To Weaken Against The US Dollar (USD), Euro Under Pressure Amidst Russia’s Decision To Tighten Gas Supplies. GBP Strengthens Against the JPY.    Sources: fxstreet.com, Finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com.
Investors' Concerns About The Coming Recession In The UK, Will GBP/USD Pair Reach Its Lowest Level In History?

ECB Offering The Euro Support (EUR/USD), Strengthening Of The Renminbi Supporting The EUR and GBP, SNB Turns Hawkish (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.05.2022 10:29
Summary: ECB offering support to the EUR, whilst easing lockdowns in China aids in the weakening US Dollar. Euro and GBP are likely to strengthen with the Renminbi. SNB and ECB hawkishness offers support to their respective currencies. GBP/CAD Read next: US Dollar Is Likely To Experience Volatility In The Coming Weeks (EUR/USD), UK Retail Data Exceeds Market Expectations (EUR/GBP), SNB Turns Hawkish Causing the CHF To Rally (EUR/CHF) - Good Morning Forex!  Easing lockdowns in China dragging down the US Dollar Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. On Monday the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it is likely that July would be the starting period for raising interest rates. At the same time, the easing of lockdowns in China has aided in weakening the US Dollar. The trading week is full of US events along with some European Central Bank events, all of which will be watched closely. EUR/USD Price Chart Euro and GBP both showing signs of strengthening Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting mixed signals. The prospect of the Chinese Renminbi rebounding is likely to have a positive impact on the value of both the Pound Sterling and the Euro. In addition the market believes that the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to continue raising interest rates in the coming months along with the increased likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) raising the interest rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart SNB and ECB hawkishness caused mixed sentiment for this currency pair. On Thursday last week the president of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) said that they were ready to act on the rising inflation, the hawkishness of the SNB caused the Swiss Franc to rally. The potential hawkishness of the European Central Bank (ECB) is also causing the Euro to strengthen, leaving the market sentiment for this currency pair showing mixed signals. EUR/CHF Price Chart GBP rallies against the CAD The strengthening of the GBP against the CAD throughout last week has come in the wake of increasing UK government bond yields. The strengthening came in the wake of the release of UK employment data, inflation and retail data all which support further increases in the UK government bond yields. GBP/CAD Price Chart Read next: (FTSE) FTSE 100 Rallies In Response To Positive Economic Data, US Dollar Expected To See More Volatility  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The USD/CHF Pair Snaps The Two-Day Downward Trend

Data Showed A Slowing Eurozone Economy (EUR/USD, EUR/CHF), UK PMI Data Came In Stronger Than Expected (EUR/GBP), NZD Was The Top Performing Currency On Thursday (GBP/NZD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.06.2022 15:44
Summary: Eurozone data showed a slowing European economy for June. Pound sterling offered support from strong UK PMI data. NZD was Thursday's top performing currency. Read next: Fears Of Recession Loom (EUR/USD), UK CPI Inflation Data 9.1% For May (EUR/GBP), Surprisingly Strong Canadian Inflation Data (USD/CAD), EUR/JPY  Euro weakened in the wake of slowing economy data The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Euro fell sharply on Thursday in the wake of data that showed that the Eurozone economy had slowed during June and undermined the expectations for a series of rapid interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) that are due to start in July. The fall in the Euro helped reinforce a bid for the US Dollar against all major pairs as investors continue to bet on a global economic slowdown. ` EUR/USD Price Chart UK PMI data beat market expectations The market is reflecting mixed market sentiment for this currency pair. The UK economy continued to grow during June as UK PMI data came in stronger than the market expected. At the same time UK wage pressures remained strong at firms that were increasingly willing to pass on price increases to customers, which is likely to continue to place pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/NZD upside risk The New Zealand Dollar was one of the top performing major currencies on Thursday when the NZD/USD pair seemed to be drawing dip-buyers from the market. The Pound to NZD has been contained over the past month, but with the NZD/USD pair testing major support levels, it is possible that the breakout risk for the GBP/NZD is on the upside. GBP/NZD Price Chart EUR/CHF The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. As the Swiss Franc continues to strengthen in the wake of the Swiss National Banks (SNB) interest rate hike, the Euro is weakening due to unfavourable economic data. EUR/CHF Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Trading Signals For The New Zealand Dollar To Swiss Franc Pair (NZD/CHF)

Euro Remains Under Pressure As European Gas Crisis Persists (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF), RBNZ Increased Cash Rate (GBP/NZD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.07.2022 17:26
Summary: US inflation at 9.1%. Retreating USD and buoyant commodity prices offered NZD support. UK GDP data beat market expectations. EUR remains under pressure due to gas crisis. Read next: US Inflation Reaches Nearly 41 Year High, RBNZ & BoC Increase Their Cash Rates  EUR/USD The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Early on Wednesday the EUR/USD currency pair hit parity, a level not seen in 20 years. US inflation data for June was released on Wednesday and came in at 9.1%, a level that had increased since the May reading of 8.6%. Inflation has risen further despite the Fed’s continuous effort to drive inflation rates down through aggressive interest rate increases. The Euro will continue to remain under pressure amidst the European gas crisis which is far from over. EUR/USD Price Chart UK GDP Data beat expectations The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. With the UK GDP data coming in surprisingly strong in the mid-trading week has led Goldman Sachs to lower their expectations for a looming recession in the UK economy. All components of the UK economy played their part in contributing to the better than expected data: manufacturing production increased 2.3% in May against a consensus forecast for 0.2%. Industrial production grew 0.9% against expectations for flat output and construction output increased 4.8% against the 4.4% expected. EUR/GBP Price Chart EUR/CHF Currency pair The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised the markets in June with a 50 bps hike in interest rates. The SNB hosts quarterly meetings to discuss monetary policy, the next meeting is due in September whereas the European Central Bank (ECB) will make its decision regarding monetary policy at the end of the month. EUR/CHF Price Chart GBP/NZD pushing downwards The Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased their cash rate by 50 bps on Wednesday in an attempt to reign in persistent inflation. Although the move from the reserve bank was fully priced-in to the financial markets, the retreating US Dollar and buoyant commodity prices allowed room for the NZD to a number of currencies downward, including the pound sterling. GBP/NZD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Are Stock Markets Endangered? Is The Bear Market Coming?

EUR/USD Falls Below Parity, Eurozone Energy Crisis Concerns Persist (EUR/GBP), Hawkish BoC (USD/CAD), USD/JPY

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.07.2022 17:34
Summary: The Eurozone energy crisis persists. Potentially more hawkish BoE could be on the horizon. BoC 1% raise in interest rates offers CAD support. Read next: Platinum Prices Touchine 22-month Lows, RBOB Gasoline, Wheat Consumption Expected To Decrease  Stock Markets weighing an even more aggressive Fed The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate has fallen below parity in the wake of a surge in US Dollar demand. Looking at the combination of events leading to the fall of the EUR/USD, we observe that the stock markets are in the red as they attempt to anticipate the potential effects from a potential 100 basis point hike from the Federal Reserve. The Euro is still struggling as concerns around the seemingly unwavering energy crisis in the Eurozone persists. EUR/USD Price Chart Potentially more hawkish BoE could be on the horizon The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The most recent commentary suggests to the market that the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England (BoE) is only one employment report or one inflation number away from a step change in the pace the Bank Rate is being lifted, and that a change of this sort could come as soon as August. This move could offer the pound support going forward. EUR/GBP Price Chart BoC hawkish moves offering CAD support The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar had a strong start to Thursday's trading day as investors priced in the growing expectations for a 100 basis point increase in interest rates from the Fed in the wake of the 9.1% US inflation data that was released on Wednesday. On Wednesday the Bank of Canada (BoC) shocked markets with their largest interest rate hike since 1998. The hawkish move from the BoC has offered the Canadian Dollar support and has thrown a curveball at investors, leaving a range of responses from analysts. USD/CAD Price Chart USD/JPY The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar has reversed yesterday's pullback which occurred in the wake of US inflation data being released. The BoJ continues on their dovish monetary policy path. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The EUR/USD Pair Could Resume Its Larger Degree Downtrend

ECB Upcoming Policy Rate Decision Offers Euro Support (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), Higher Than Expected NZ CPI Inflation Data (GBP/NZD), (USD/CAD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 18.07.2022 16:49
Summary: EUR recovering against the USD. ECB interest rate decision due on Thursday. UK economic data to be released this week. NZ CPI inflation rose 1.7%. Read next: Hawkish Fed Is Driving Gold’s Value Down , Corn Prices At 5-week Lows, Brent Crude Oil Prices Falling  Euro attempting to recover against the USD The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Euro has been attempting to recover against the US Dollar during the Monday trading day and could continue to rise in the coming days if all goes well for Eurozone economies on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) announces their policy decision. In addition there is still market uncertainty around whether Russian gas flows will continue through the Noord Stream 1 after its maintenance ends on July 21st, this remains one of the greatest risks to the Euro. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound sterling could weaken more against the EUR The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The EUR/GBP currency pair could strengthen more in the coming days as the market awaits the ECB’s interest rate decision. There is however, some UK economic data that is due to be released which could offer the pound sterling support against the Euro and other currencies. EUR/GBP Price Chart NZ inflation data weakening the NZD. A rise in New Zealand inflation data shocked investors and raised bets for a faster and more hawkish response from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). However, fears of a ‘hard landing’ for the Kiwi economy have grown as investors are fearing that the combination of rising interest rates and high inflation will negatively impact economic expansion, which may aid in explaining the NDZ’s negative reaction to the data. According to Stats NZ, CPI inflation in NEw Zealand rose 1.7% quarter on quarter, surpassing the markets expectation of a 1.5% increase/ GBP/NZD Price Chart USD/CAD The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Canadian Dollar has continued its rally against the US Dollar after the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets last Wednesday with a 100 basis point hike in interest rates. USD/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com  
This Week's Tesla Stock Split Could Be The Best Moment To Buy The Stock! Twitter Stock Price Plunged!

Euro Remains Supported Ahead Of ECB Policy Decision, Netflix & Tesla Q2 Earnings Reports

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.07.2022 23:49
Summary: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP currency pairs Netflix earnings report Tesla earnings report Read next: S&P 500 Amongst Major Indexes That Are Rising, Markets Are Waiting For Thursdays ECB Policy Decision  Euro stole headlines on Wednesday The EUR/USD currency pair ended the Wednesday trading day showing mixed market sentiment as the market awaits the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision due on Thursday. The Euro is still facing uncertainty regarding high inflation in the Eurozone and how the ECB plans to tackle it, in addition as the Noord Stream 1 opens after its routine maintenance period, there are still concerns as to whether Russia will open the gas taps. The recovery of the Euro against the dollar could be reflecting a possible market inflection point. The Euro has recovered half of its July losses so far, this could mean a turn around against the Dollar for many other major currencies aswell. The Euro stole the headlines on Wednesday as both Bloomberg News and Reuters reported that the market could see an outsized interest rate yield rise from the European Central Bank on Thursday. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP currency pair The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. According to a number of new reports, it is predicted that UK inflation could reach up to 12% by October, the report also showed that the inflation rate was growing at its fastest rate in 40 years. The Euro remains supported ahead of the ECB’s policy decision on Thursday EUR/GBP Price Chart Netflix Earnings Report Netflix's earnings report on Wednesday indicated they lost around 970,000 subscribers, beating the 2 million that was predicted last quarter, thus causing the company's stock price to jump. Its EPS beat market expectations. The company also warned that the rallying US Dollar would have an impact on international revenue. The streaming giant also indicated they had more time to understand and address the issues that have been impacting their streaming, revenue and other major indicators. NFLX Price Chart Tesla earnings report Tesla’s quarter 2 earnings report indicated the company beat market expectations with regards to adjusted EPS. Automotive margins came in at 27.9% down from the 32.9% seen in the first quarter, impacted by inflation, increased competition for battery cells and other components that are required for electric vehicles. In addition the invasion of Russia in the Ukraine and in conjunction with covid-19 lockdown measures in China caused supply chain issues and parts shortages. TSLA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com, cnbc.com
Fed Interest Rate Announcement Due Wednesday (EUR/USD), 50bp Hike From BOE Expected (EUR/GBP, GBP/NZD)

Fed Interest Rate Announcement Due Wednesday (EUR/USD), 50bp Hike From BOE Expected (EUR/GBP, GBP/NZD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.07.2022 19:37
Summary: Federal reserve interest rate announcement Wednesday. Barclays updated their expectations for the next BOE interest rate hike. NZD was a poor performer on Tuesday. Read next: NGAS Prices Rising, Cotton Demand Falling, Gold Prices Rising As Recession Fears Rise  Euro at risk of weakening The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The euro is at risk of falling as prospects of a weaker economic outlook and restricted gas flows through the Noord Stream 1 pipeline. The threat of Russian oil exports through the Noord Stream pipeline being reduced to 20% could contribute even further to the energy crisis in Europe and drive gas prices even higher. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike announcement which is due tomorrow. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP bearish The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Barclays bank has increased expectations to 50bps hikes from the Bank of England (BOE). A 50bp increase is now anticipated for August 4th, according to the UK economic team at Barclays after evaluating incoming UK data and signals from the Bank of England. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/NZD currency pair The Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate may be at risk of another decline below the 1.92 level due to a full calendar of event risks in the next few days, making it difficult for it to rise. On Tuesday, the U.S. Dollar recovered from 10-day lows vs the majority of its G20 counterparts, causing the GBP/NZD to increase for a third day in a row. The New Zealand Dollar performed worse than the other major currencies and Sterling. GBP/NZD Price Chart Sources: dailyfx.com, finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Federal Reserve Raises The Interest Rates By 75bps

Federal Reserve Raises The Interest Rates By 75bps

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.07.2022 20:04
Summary: Fed chooses a 75 basis point rate hike. Central Banks all around the world are raising interest rates. Federal Reserves On Wednesday the Federal Reserve made their interest rate decision to raise interest rates on Wednesday, they chose to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. The market expectations were elevated to 100 basis points in the wake of June CPI inflation data that reflected that, despite the Fed’s efforts to reign in and control the soaring inflation, inflation was stubborn in its moves upward. The Feds move is likely to cause the US dollar to rally and strengthen against all its major currency pairs and hopefully will aid in bringing down the already soaring inflation rate. Over the past couple weeks the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Bank of England (BoE) amongst others, have all rasied their interest rates in an attempt tio reign in the soaring inflation rates around the world. The Fed has been periodically raising interest rates at every meeting since May, the first rate hike in may was 50 basis points, which shocked the markets and caused the US Dollar to rally and strengthen across the board. The second interest rate hike by the fed was in June of 75 basis points and was one which shocked the market, thereafter the 75 basis point hike decision today, a further 75 basis points. The market had priced in a 75 basis point hike but experts raised their expectations to a 100 basis point rate hike, as the Fed continued to reiterate to the market their commitment to reigning in the sky high inflation rates, rates that have not been seen since the 1980s. In a unanimous vote, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the policy rate to a range between 2.25 percent and 2.50 percent, noting that "inflation remained elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances connected to the pandemic, increased food and energy prices, and broader pricing pressures." The FOMC continued by stating that it is "very sensitive" to inflation risks. Officials observed in the new policy statement that "recent measures of spending and production have weakened," despite the fact that job growth has remained "strong," a pointer to the reality that the substantial rate hikes they have implemented since March are starting to take effect. The Fed has increased its policy rate by 225 basis points in total this year, on top of a 75-basis-point increase last month and smaller increases in May and March, as it fights an inflation breakout on a par with the 1980s with monetary policy modeled after the 1980s. As a result, the epidemic era attempts to promote household and corporate spending with cheap money have effectively come to an end. The policy rate is currently at the level that the majority of Fed officials believe has a neutral economic impact. The rate was also achieved in just four months, matching the peak of the central bank's previous tightening cycle, which lasted from late 2015 to late 2018. Little concrete information about the next actions the Fed might take was provided in its most recent policy statement. The Fed's decision will be greatly influenced by whether or not incoming data indicates that inflation is starting to decline. Investors anticipate the U.S. central bank to increase the policy rate by at least half a percentage point at its September meeting in light of the most recent data showing consumer prices rising at a rate of more than 9% annually. Sources: investing.com, reuters
Will The US Dollar Continue To Be Strong And To Keep Growing Or Maybe Situation Will Be Reversed

US ISM Data Defied Market Expectations (EUR/USD), GBP Strengthened Ahead of BOE Policy Decision (EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD),

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.08.2022 02:09
Summary: The US Dollar made intraday gains on Wednesday. Markets awaiting BOE policy decision. GBP/AUD attempting recovery. Read next: Palladium Prices Touching Two-Week Highs, OPEC+ Increasing Crude Supply Of WTI Crude Oil, Coffee Supply Outlook Seemingly Poor  USD supported by US ISM data The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. After the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI defied market expectations by increasing for the month of July in contrast to the alternative barometer compiled by S&P Global, the U.S. Dollar recovered earlier losses to make intraday gains over various other major currencies. The sharp increases in new orders and overall business activity within the biggest and most significant sector of the U.S. economy's largest and most important sector led to Wednesday's release of the ISM services sector index rising from 55.3 to 56.7 for last month, surprising the currency and bond markets. The Fed will decide in September whether to lower the size of the increments in which it is raising U.S. interest rates. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated last Wednesday that they would take a range of economic indicators into account, causing a significant decline in the value of the dollar. EUR/USD Price Chart BoE Policy rate decision due The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Pound sterling has strengthened ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision. Following the Bank of England report on Thursday, Barclays' foreign exchange analysts predict that the British Pound would likely decline; however, Goldman Sachs is more optimistic about the UK currency's prospects, particularly when compared to the Euro. Before announcing its most recent inflation and economic growth projections, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England is anticipated to announce another interest rate increase.Through the later part of July and the beginning of August, the Pound strengthened against both the Euro and the U.S. Dollar. The main test for the currency will be the size of the hike announced and the nature of those expectations. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/AUD attempting recovery The GBP/AUD currency pair is attempting recovery of the declines experienced in July. In the first few days of August, the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate further reversed its July decline, but it may find it difficult to move much further than the nearby 1.76 level in the absence of further support from the Bank of England (BoE) this Thursday. Following the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy announcement on Tuesday, which helped push GBP/AUD to one-month highs, the Australian Dollar was one of the major currencies that underperformed for the week ending on Wednesday. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundtserlinglive.com
The EUR/USD Pair Maintains The Bullish Sentiment

FOREX: U.S Inflation Data Due Wednesday (EUR/USD), BoE Economic Forecasts Downgrades (EUR/GBP), Potentially Hawkish BoC (GBP/CAD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.08.2022 20:30
Summary: The euro is battling to mount significant gains against the USD. BoE’s economic downgrades. Market expectations for a hawkish BoC. Read next: Meme Stocks Amongst Monday’s Top Performers  EUR/USD suffered defeats this week The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Euro to Dollar exchange rate suffered defeats this week from both near and distant, but if this Wednesday's U.S. inflation data further incenses a still-hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), it might send the rate back into its laws from July. In the first session of last week, the Euro got dangerously close to the 1.03 handle versus a declining Dollar, but an attempt at a rebound was again thwarted by what appear to be escalating concerns to energy supplies in Germany and several other European nations. The euro has stabilized versus the U.S. dollar in recent weeks following a large sell-off earlier this year, but has been unable to mount a significant comeback due to a dearth of supportive fundamentals. In this aspect, the common currency has faced challenges that have limited its upward performance versus the dollar, including the oil crisis in Europe, regional economic instability, and the ECB's unwillingness to raise rates fast. EUR/USD Price Chart BoE shocked the market with sharp economic downgrades The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Bank of England (BoE) shocked the market last week with sharp downgrades to its economic forecasts, which put Sterling on the back foot and put it at risk of slipping into a cluster of technical support levels around 1.18 in the coming days. As a result, the Pound to Euro exchange rate was muted. The pound sterling was a little firmer this morning against the U.S. dollar and the euro, respectively. The new leader of the British Conservative Party and the British Prime Minister, both named Sunak and Truss, have been the subject of much discussion (tax cuts). Tax cuts may increase already high inflationary pressures, which could lead to additional interest rate increases from the Bank of England. Tax cuts are intended to promote economic growth inside the UK (BoE). EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/CAD currency pair Last week, U.S. economic data, the U.S. Dollar, and a strong Loonie combined to drag the Pound to Canadian Dollar rate down toward 1.55 and a level that may continue to exert a gravitational pull in the days to come. This prevented the rate from rising above near 10-year lows. Although the unemployment rate in Canada remained at 4.9 percent and wages continued to grow at an annualized rate of 5.2 percent in July, the economy still lost jobs for a second consecutive month. This may have led the market to believe that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will likely maintain the more aggressive monetary tightening and interest rate policy implemented in recent months. GBP/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Fed is expected to hike the rate by 50bp, but weaker greenback and Treasury yields don't play in favour of the bank

The Market Awaits US Inflation Report (EUR/USD), EUR/GBP Bullish, Canadian Dollar “skewed to the downside”

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.08.2022 17:19
Summary: Market awaits US inflation reports on Wednesday. Fed and ECB will continue to hike interest rates. The Bank of Canada may decide to scale down its plans to raise interest rates. Read next: Will Tesla’s (TSLA) Stock-Split Boost Interest In Company Shares?  USD is expected to remain supported The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. As the market awaits the US inflation report on Wednesday, the Euro has remained stable on Tuesday. So far today, the EUR/USD has fluctuated only slightly, around 1.0190. In the North American session, Treasury rates decreased; today in Asia, they were flat throughout the curve. At about 106.36, the US Dollar (DXY) index is unchanged. However, Analysts at Rabobank, a Dutch-based worldwide lender and investment bank, predict that the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) will decline down below the 1.0 level during the upcoming weeks. In contrast to some analysts' predictions that the Dollar's multi-month surge is coming to an end, new analysis reveals the currency will likely continue to be well supported long into 2023. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP Bullish The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. On August 4, the Bank of England increased interest rates by 50 basis points as it stepped up its campaign against inflation. "Having stepped up the pace of rate hikes, it would look odd to throttle back straight away. The Fed and ECB are likely to continue to hike at a rapid pace, and a desire to support sterling will likely drag the BoE along with them," says Goodwin. "Given the fragile backdrop, this makes rate cuts in 2023 more likely," says Goodwin. They anticipate 75 basis points of rate reductions in 2023 when it becomes apparent that the BoE overreacted. Forecasts for a weaker Pound relative to the Euro reflect this anticipation; Oxford Economics predicts that the Pound to Euro exchange rate will be at 1.16 from the end of the third quarter of 2022 through the end of the first quarter of 2023. EUR/GBP Price Chart Canadian dollar “skewed to the downside” According to foreign exchange strategists at Barclays, the forecast for the Canadian Dollar in the near term is "skewed to the downside." The Bank of Canada may decide to scale down its plans to raise interest rates, according to Barclays in its normal weekly currency strategy briefing paper. The bank also notes that the prolonged decrease in oil prices may have an impact. With a reading of -30.6k in July, according to official figures released last week, Canada experienced its second straight loss in employment, falling short of the average estimate of +15k new positions. Despite this, the unemployment rate stayed close to long-term lows at 4.9 percent, while pay growth held steady at 5.4 percent annually. GBP/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Wow! Federal Reserve decision is not everything next week! What's ahead? InstaForex talks many economic events (Monday) - 30/10/22

US CPI Inflation Data For July Was 8.5%, Beating Expectations

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.08.2022 14:38
Summary: US Inflation data is expected to be released on Wednesday. EUR/USD & GBP/USD currency pairs. Volatility in the markets. 8.5% consumer inflation. Later today, high volatility is likely to be caused by US inflation data, which is anticipated to show a modest decline in the headline measure (8.7 percent exp vs 9.1 percent prior). The US PPI data is due out on Thursday, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the markets given that the Fed would need to observe a significant decline in prices in order to alter its present course of temporary tightening. The US CPI Inflation data for July came in at 8.5%, declining from the 9.1% June high and beating the markets expectations of 8.7%. The fall in inflation was likely aided by a reduction in both food and gasoline prices. The result could indicate to the markets that the Federal Reserve Bank has been successful so far in their interest rate hikes to fight inflation. A stronger result would have likely increased the chances of another interest rate hike of 75 bps in the following months and would have boosted the USD, whilst a weaker result could cause the Fed to drop to a 50 bps interest rate hike next month. EUR/USD The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for this currency pair. The markets have been in a lethargic state recently with a 7-week slide in the VIX volatility index. The current state of lethargy is most likely a result of the medium-term decline in market activity. The seven-week decline in the VIX was mentioned, but there are many other noteworthy episodes from recent history where important events, some with high surprise quotients, failed to significantly move the markets. The PCE deflator, which uses the same data used to calculate the quarterly GDP statistics, is really the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. Despite this, the markets have consistently shown a strong preference for the CPI, presumably because it is released earlier and has a full week to be incorporated into market views because it is released on a Wednesday. The headline basket's annual inflation growth rate had increased to an astounding 9.1 percent pace at the time of the previous release. That is the highest reading in forty years, and it is not just due to the biggest economy in the world. This reading might meet, miss, or beat the consensus expectation (8.7%), but it is thought that a "beat" would carry the most weight. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP/USD An expert at Société Générale claims that the Pound is "in peril" and that a new decrease in the value of the Dollar is imminent. In the very near future, GBP/USD has a risk of declining below 1.20 once more "Olivier Korber, a Soc Gen strategist, states in a memo dated August 2009. The underlying rationale for the trade, according to Korber, is compelling given the unsettling predictions made by the Bank of England last week, which indicated that UK inflation was expected to peak at "an incredible 13 percent. In addition, according to economists at the Bank of England, a four-quarter recession will begin in this year's fourth quarter. According to Korber, the difference with the forecast for the U.S. economy is currently striking. Last Friday's unexpectedly upbeat US job report stands in stark contrast to the pessimistic UK economic forecast. The likelihood of a second consecutive 75bp Fed rate hike is being discussed as recession fears in the US are gradually subsiding. GBP/USD might retest 1.20 in the very near future if there is potential for more sterling short positions, warns Korber. More than doubling the 250K jobs that the market had anticipated, the U.S. economy added 528K jobs in July, which helped the U.S. dollar recover. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: poundsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
More effects of FTX crash could show up

Euro Could Be Boosted In Coming Days (EUR/USD), UK Economic Data To Be Released This Week (EUR/GBP), CAD Fell In The Wake Of The PBoC’s Announcement (GBP/CAD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 15.08.2022 23:52
Summary: EUR/USD recently hit 6-week highs. CAD proves its sensitivity to risk appetite. Could UK inflation hit double figures? EUR/USD recently reached 6 week highs. The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. A stagnant U.S. Dollar and more accommodating Chinese monetary policy may continue to boost the single euro currency in the days ahead. The Euro to Dollar exchange rate recently hit six-week highs. However, its recovery was halted by resistance on the charts. Last week, when a slew of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggested that a significant slowing of U.S. inflation pressures may have started to move through the pipeline last month, the euro rose to its highest level since the first days of July. Furthermore, The unexpected decision to cut interest rates, announced by the People's Bank of China (PBoC), on Monday could help the euro this week if the PBoC permits the managed-floating Renminbi to weaken in order to boost the regional economy. EUR/USD Price Chart UK major economic data to be released this week The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The market is unconvinced that the current trading week will aid the pound sterling in recovering against major currencies with major economic data such as the latest jobs, wages, inflation and retail sales all set to be released. Although the labor market is currently strong, there is a good likelihood that headline UK inflation will reach double digits this week. The Bank of England has already issued a warning that this year's inflation could reach 13% while the economy experiences a five-quarter slump. The UK is experiencing drought-inducing heatwaves, sky-high energy prices, and a political void in No. 10, so any more bad economic news will enrage the already irate populace. EUR/GBP Price Chart CAD fell in the wake of PBoC announcement to cut interest rates. The Pound sterling to the Canadian Dollar rallied from August lows, but could climb further if the Loonie is able to build on Monday declines, which is a busy period for both the U.S and Canada regarding economic data. After the People's Bank of China (PBoC) unexpectedly lowered interest rates in reaction to alarming local economic statistics, the Canadian Dollar fell on Monday along with other currencies that are highly sensitive to risk appetite, commodity prices, and changes in the outlook for global growth. But in light of the aforementioned, it's possible, if not likely, that the directional risk for GBP/CAD is now tilting a little more to the upside than it is to the downside. The Loonie and Sterling must now each navigate a series of domestic economic event risks that are lurking along the path ahead. GBP/CAD Price Chart
Forex: Possibility Of Sharp Jump In Many Trading Instruments

Euro Under Pressure As A Result Of Events In The Energy Market (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), RBNZ Due To Announce Policy Update (GBP/NZD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 16.08.2022 22:29
Summary: Eurozone's common currency depreciated. Euro currency is threatened by economic growth concerns. RBNZ midweek policy update. Euro under pressure amidst rising gas prices The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. According to economists, recent developments in the energy markets of the Eurozone support the argument for additional euro weakness. Due to events in the energy market, which revealed that European benchmark power costs had risen above €500 for the first time, the Eurozone's common currency depreciated further in comparison to recent highs against the Dollar and the Pound. Over the next months, the developments pose a potential of piling on further pressure on the businesses in the area. According to Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, the gas and power situation in the EU is getting worse, which is hurting the euro. In spite of persisting supply constraints from Russia, European countries kept up the pressure on demand to fill their storage tanks before the winter, driving up gas prices. EUR/USD Price Chart Euro is threatened by economic growth concerns. The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The European Central Bank has succeeded so far in preventing further significant downside in the EUR-crosses by maintaining its difficult balancing act of raising interest rates to combat multi-decade highs in price pressures while preventing fragmentation of sovereign bond markets (preventing peripheral debt yields from widening out relative to their core counterparts). But because energy inventories in the Eurozone are still low before the winter months, fears about growth are growing. The likelihood that the ECB will only be able to raise rates a few more times before the emphasis shifts to preventing a serious economic downturn is growing. Although the Euro's flaws have been contained, they nevertheless exist and pose a threat to the single currency. EUR/GBP Price Chart RBNZ midweek policy update Following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) midweek policy update, analysts at investment banks Goldman Sachs and HSBC are watching for NZD depreciation. Markets anticipate that the RBNZ will increase interest rates by another 50 basis points to 3.0%, but any significant changes in the currency are more likely to be caused by the RBNZ's tone in its guidance. The meeting, according to Goldman Sachs, is expected to be one of the major developments for the foreign exchange markets this week, and the results are most likely to support their bearish NZ Dollar thesis. GBP/NZD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Only Ugly US Data Could Reverse Sentiment | Gilt Yields In UK Were Steady To Lower

Disappointing July FOMC Meeting Minutes (EUR/USD), Euro Under Pressure (EUR/GBP), RBNZ Policy Update Caused NZD Sell-off (GBP/NZD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.08.2022 22:02
Summary: NZD Sell-off. July FOMC minutes gave no hawkish surprises. Euro under pressure. FOMC meeting minutes for July The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The much awaited release of the minutes from the July FOMC meeting turned out to be somewhat disappointing, at least for the US Dollar (via the DXY Index). The minutes contained no hawkish surprises, with one sentence standing out in particular: “Participants judged that, as the stance of monetary policy tightened further, it likely would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and inflation.” Recent data indications, like the US economy's growth trajectory and the July US inflation report's reading of 0% m/m, indicating that recent Federal Reserve policy tweaks are certainly having the desired impact on aggregate demand and inflation. Rate expectations for the September Fed meeting were slightly lowered as a result of the July FOMC minutes. The likelihood of a rate increase of 75 basis points decreased from 51% yesterday to 46% today, indicating that market players are seeing the Fed's most recent statement as a confirmation of what was already known: the rate of rate increases is expected to decelerate over the upcoming months. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP currency pair The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The European Central Bank has succeeded so far in preventing further significant downside in the EUR-crosses by maintaining its difficult balancing act of raising interest rates to combat multi-decade highs in price pressures while preventing fragmentation of sovereign bond markets (preventing peripheral debt yields from widening out relative to their core counterparts). But because energy inventories in the Eurozone are still low before the winter months, fears about growth are growing. The likelihood that the ECB will only be able to raise rates a few more times before the emphasis shifts to preventing a serious economic downturn is growing. Although the Euro's flaws have been contained, they nevertheless exist and pose a threat to the single currency. EUR/GBP Price Chart NZD sell-off in the wake of RBNZ policy update The market's reaction to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) August policy update and guidance led to a sell-off of the New Zealand Dollar. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) signaled it will raise interest rates to levels higher than they had previously been expecting. On paper, the RBNZ did everything it could to back NZD bulls: it said that the economy was in good shape, that inflationary pressures were widespread, and that it would continue to raise interest rates. As the RBNZ suggested they will need to raise rates higher than they had previously thought, short-term New Zealand bond yields increased. Two additional rises of 50 basis points are now likely to occur throughout the course of 2022, and a smaller hike may occur in early 2023. The Pound to New Zealand Dollar fell by two thirds of a percent in the 15 minutes following the decision. GBP/NZD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The British Pound Is Showing Signs Of Exhaustion Of The Bullish Force

Euro Fundamentals Unchanged (EUR/USD), Pound Sterling In Trouble In The Wake Of Disappointing Economic Data (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.08.2022 16:48
Summary: Euro fundamentals appear to be unchanged. Positive US economic data. Poor U.K economic data. Markets Focused of Fed officials - EUR/USD The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Markets focused on a variety of Fed officials as they remain unanimous in the direction of future rate hikes but divided on the terminal rate because the fundamentals of the euro appear to be unaltered for the time being. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's board, was also questioned by Reuters yesterday. In the interview, she expressed concern over the continued threats to the forecast for long-term inflation and the euro's depreciation. The ECB typically doesn't comment on currency exchange rates, but there are times when a broad trend of appreciation or depreciation can influence monetary policy goals. EUR/USD Price Chart Poor economic news putting pressure on GBP - EUR/GBP The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. After a run of dismal economic news, the British pound is in trouble: growth is lower, the labor market is slowing down, and inflation is still raging. Rates of GBP/USD have reversed their recent upward trend, while rates of GBP/JPY are sliding below multi-month trendline support and rates of EUR/GBP are rising from multi-month trendline support. Retail trader stance has recently changed, indicating a bullish bias for the EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY rates and a bearish bias for the GBP/USD rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart Positive economic data supporting USD - GBP/USD The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Prior to the weekend, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate retreated under the 1.20 handle and was close to its yearly lows after positive U.S. economic data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials were followed by a Dollar rally that sent Sterling and a number of other currencies into freefall. While the U.S. dollar got the better of the Pound late on Thursday and had left it trading as an underperformer by Friday even after July's UK retail sales figures came in stronger than expected by the market, Sterling had better resisted the clutches of a strengthening Dollar throughout much of the week, resulting in a resilient performance against other currencies. EUR/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Us Dollar's (USD) Decline Will Not Be More Prolonged

EUR/USD Falls Below Parity, Investor Expectations For BoE Spiked (EUR/GBP), GBP/USD At Risk Of Further Losses

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.08.2022 17:27
Summary: EUR/USD could be moving toward a potential further fall. EUR/GBP. GBP/USD may see further losses this week. EUR/USD falls below parity The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Testing below the parity handle, the EUR/USD is moving toward a potential further fall. Sellers have pushed hard to allow for another move-below since this level came back into play just after the Euro start this morning. Whether it can go on is the key question. Euro bears have returned for another battle at the parity handle of EUR/USD, drawing like moths to a flame. It took almost six months for this price to finally give way when it was last in action, in the second half of 2002. This is a significant psychological level. This really illustrates the influence of psychological factors as well as the significance of emotion in the market. Inflation is rampant in the Eurozone, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine makes problems of economic policy, notably in the area of energy, more complicated. The question is whether we're approaching an abnormal market climate. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound sterling loses against the Euro The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Late last week, despite official data that suggested retail spending held steady in the face of high inflation in the UK and another spike in investor expectations for Bank of England (BoE) interest rates, the pound lost ground against the euro. Friday's losses occurred as a result of the Dollar gaining and investors' declining risk appetite putting significant pressure on Sterling and other currencies. This prevented the Pound from benefiting from a sharp increase in UK government bond yields that was happening in the background. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/USD could fall further this week The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. A busy U.S. economic calendar or comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials might cause U.S. bond yields and the Dollar to rise even further on a burgeoning comeback, further damaging the Pound to Dollar exchange rate, which collapsed last week. Better than anticipated UK economic data and a sharp rise in market expectations for interest rates at the Bank of England (BoE) last week did not help the pound sterling, and it frequently appeared to be the most vulnerable among major currencies to rising U.S. bond yields and a rally in the dollar. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Forex: So Could US Dollar (USD) And EUR/USD Become More Resistant To Data?

EUR/USD Expected To Remain Below PArity, UK Economy Grew In August (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.08.2022 18:50
Summary: ECB may turn more hawkish. The US economic downturn may have increased in August. EUR/USD still below parity The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for this currency pair. Will the European Central Bank (ECB) adopt a more hawkish stance this week given the pressure the Euro is still under and its recent breach of parity with the dollar? For the meeting on September 8th, the market anticipates a 54 bp rate increase. If the ECB wants to support the EUR/USD, may it start talking about the possibility of more drastic rate increases? Joachim Nagel, the head of the Bundesbank said, “Given high inflation, further interest-rate hikes must follow,the past few months have shown that we have to decide on monetary policy from meeting to meeting.” Investment firm Nomura's strategists have increased their confidence in a wager that the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is likely to experience a few "large figure" movements below parity. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP currency pair The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. In August, the UK economy grew, according to a closely-followed assessment of activity. Although consumers and businesses were struggling with rising inflation levels, the monthly S&P Global PMI series did reveal a slowdown in activity continued. Looking ahead, the trend is consistent with negative growth. The Euro is under pressure from the Eruozone energy crisis as market participants are expecting further interest rate hikes from the ECB. EUR/GBP Price Chart EUR/USD The release of data on Tuesday that suggested that the U.S. economy's downturn may have increased in August caused the Dollar to revert in value relative to the Euro and the British Pound. The service PMI score for the U.S. economy was 44.1, much below the 49.2 markets had projected and the 47.3 from July, according to S&P Global's PMI survey. According to S&P Global, the output decline was the sharpest since May 2020 and was the fastest since the first pandemic outbreak since the series' start almost 13 years ago. The numbers indicate that despite elevated inflation and rising interest rates at the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy is slowing down. Another indication of a slowdown may dampen investor expectations for the amount of interest rate increases the Fed is prepared to make in the upcoming months, at least from the standpoint of the currency market. Cooling rate hike expectations can cause bond rates to fall, which is negative for the U.S. dollar. EUR/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Euro Remains Below Parity Against The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Risk Of UK Stagflation Continues To Rise (EUR/GBP, GBP/NZD),

Euro Remains Below Parity Against The US Dollar (EUR/USD), Risk Of UK Stagflation Continues To Rise (EUR/GBP, GBP/NZD),

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.08.2022 21:00
Summary: EUR trading below parity against the USD. UK at risk of energy crisis. Kiwi outperforms on Thursday. EUR/USD trading below parity The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Policymakers at the European Central Bank have been relatively silent on the lecture circuit lately, but that may soon change as the summer comes to an end. There was disagreement about the 50-bps rate increase even as inflation pressures in the Eurozone had risen, according to the minutes of the ECB meeting in July. The ECB may ultimately disappoint in the upcoming months as fears turn back to weak growth, even as rates markets are discounting a more aggressive course going forward. Powell might exert pressure on the market to raise expectations for the Fed's September rate hike to 75 basis points because the markets now expect the Fed to deliver approximately 65 basis points of increases. This may provide short-term support for the Dollar and maintain pressure on the Euro into the next month. EUR/USD Price Chart Risk of UK Stagflation rises The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The energy crisis in the Eurozone is still putting the Euro under pressure. As the economy slows and inflation pressures increase, the risk of stagflation in the UK is continuing to rise. However, given the developing energy crisis that threatens to drive UK inflation rates further higher into double digit territory over the coming few months, traders feel that the Bank of England is currently focusing on the latter of these two crises. In terms of odds on a BOE raise, markets are currently at their most aggressive levels of the year. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/NZD - Kiwi outperforms GBP This week saw the start of the short-lived mid-month recovery in the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate. If the Kiwi continues to excel and Sterling continues to underperform among the major currencies, the exchange rate is likely to unravel even more in the days to come. After profiting from a general easing of the U.S. Dollar ahead of Friday's visit by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium for central bankers, the New Zealand Dollar outperformed on Thursday in a booming market for Asia Pacific currencies. GBP/NZD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundtserlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The Japanese Yen Has The Worst Performer Among The G-10 Currencies

Euro Under Pressure From Rising Prices (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), Fed Chair Jerome Powell Address On Friday (USD/JPY)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.08.2022 15:44
Summary: EUR/USD back above parity. Risk of UK stagflation increases as inflation pressures rise. Jerome Powell to address on Friday. EUR/USD trading above parity on Friday The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency. Yesterday, we learned more about the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), who voted to raise interest rates by 50 basis points last month despite having talked up the increase by 25 bps in the months before the vote. The inclusion of the anti-fragmentation mechanism known as the "transmission protection instrument," which serves as additional firepower in the case of a jump in sovereign yields of the EU's riskier member states, was supported by a unanimous vote of the Council. However, the decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points was not unanimously supported. In my opinion, this shouldn't be an issue in future meetings because the risk of embedded inflationary expectations over the medium term is increased by the inflation rate's close proximity to double digits. Following the announcement by Russia's national gas monopoly that it would cut off supplies through a crucial pipeline for three days in September, the already constrained market for gas saw substantial double-digit percentage increases during the past week. In the absence of convincing supply-side responses from European capitals to the ongoing Russian gas diplomacy, the economic difficulties these price increases entail may continue to be a barrier for the single currency. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. After slipping back below parity with the dollar during the Monday session, the euro enjoyed some reprieve for the majority of the following week, but European gas prices continued to soar after a week-long stretch of astronomical gains. The soaring energy prices in the Eurozone continue to weigh on the Euro single currency. As the economy slows and inflation pressures increase, the risk of stagflation in the UK is continuing to rise. However, given the developing energy crisis that threatens to drive UK inflation rates further higher into double digit territory over the coming few months, traders feel that the Bank of England is currently focusing on the latter of these two crises. In terms of odds on a BOE raise, markets are currently at their most aggressive levels of the year. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/JPY The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. When Tokyo CPI came in above forecasts for August, USD/JPY yawned. Instead of the expected 2.5%, the core CPI increased 2.6% year over year. The national CPI statistic that is due in three weeks can be inferred from the Tokyo CPI number. FX markets have been relatively quiet over the last 48 hours. The reason for this is the lack of summer liquidity, which prevents traders from taking large positions before Friday's address by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Main Scenario Of The EUR/USD Pair Is Still A Downtrend

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Gave Guidance On Future Monetary Policy Decisions From Major Central Banks (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.08.2022 15:00
Summary: Fed anticipates that tightening will cause growth to decelerate. ECB indicate a hawkish outlook. Both Fed and ECB holding a hawkish outlook The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. He made it clear in his speech at the Jackson Hole conference that the Fed anticipates that tightening will cause growth to decelerate and that households would experience some pain as a result. His comments that the present rate is neutral appear to have cleared up any doubt. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium confirmed what the majority of attendees had anticipated before the event even began: that inflation does not appear to be slowing down, necessitating sustained resolve on the part of the Fed in the form of unrelenting interest rate increases.   Not only the Fed, though; ECB members also contributed to the narrative by speaking about the approaching rate decision with a heightened feeling of urgency and proposing increases of 50 or 75 basis points. After the unexpected 50 bps rate increase in July, the interest rate meeting on September 8th could result in a second rate increase. Villeroy, Schnabel, Kazak, Knot, and Holzmann all agreed that the rate increase in September should have been significant (by ECB criteria). It is action time, according to Oli Rehn, one of the ECB's slightly more dovish members, and the next move will be "important." EUR/USD Price Chart   Euro rallied against the GBP on Monday The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Entering the new week, the Euro was supported by the hawkish outlook from the ECB that was indicated at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Risk of a UK recession still remains high. EUR/GBP Price Chart   Hawkish fed weighs on GBP/USD The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The exchange rate between the pound and the dollar initially increased on Friday, but it quickly lost those gains when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that businesses and individuals would struggle more if the bank raised interest rates in a bid to lower U.S. inflation.    Following last week's hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the pound sterling continued to decline this past Monday. Markets had anticipated this outcome in large part, but confirmation revealed the differences between the economies of the US and UK. Goldman Sachs reported the decrease in UK economic data this morning, reiterating the Bank of England (BoEopinion )'s from a few weeks ago that a UK recession is anticipated in the fourth quarter - a significant change from their earlier prediction. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Interest Rates In Eurozone Will Continue To Increase In The Coming Meetings

A Hawkish ECB Is Supporting The Euro (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), Poor Investor Sentiment Toward The UK (GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.08.2022 16:48
Summary: ECB turns hawkish in the wake of high eurozone inflation. Pound sterling appears poised to test new lows against the euro, the dollar, and other major currencies. Euro supported by hawkish ECB The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. August saw a new high for inflation in the eurozone, and future months are predicted to see an increase. According to data from Eurostat, the increase in inflation in August was caused by a faster increase in the cost of food, alcohol, and cigarettes, which increased by 10.6% on a yearly basis compared to a 9.8% increase in July. Given the continuing rise in natural gas costs, it is anticipated that inflation in the Eurozone would rise further in the upcoming months, possibly reaching double digits. The reversal of several German subsidies and skyrocketing energy prices even before the start of the heating season indicate that inflation will continue to rise and surpass 10% before peaking around the turn of the year. Since US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's aggressive address at the Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday, there has been a noticeable change in tone among many European Central Bank (ECB) Members. The figures released today will undoubtedly strengthen arguments in favor of raising jumbo interest rates at the European Central Bank meeting next week. The central bank meeting next week is crucial since markets are heavily pricing in hawkishness; now, 70 bps are put in for September and 160 bps by year's end. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP is quickly becoming the worst performing currency of 2022 The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Despite the fact that the money markets have upped their interest rate bets for the September meeting by about 4 basis points since Monday, the Bank of England (BoE) still confronts a difficult struggle as Q4 recession fears build. Since I don't see the BoE acting aggressively over the winter, front-loading now might be essential, thus a 75bps hike is still an option. The hawkish attitude from the ECB offers the Euro support. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP testing new lows against USD and Euro The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. In light of the negative investor sentiment toward the UK and the ongoing weakness in the global equity markets, the pound sterling appears poised to test new lows against the euro, the dollar, and other major currencies. The Pound has already lost 1.33% of its value against the Euro this week, and if these declines continue, it will experience its biggest weekly decline against the euro since May. The UK pound is still losing ground versus the US dollar, having dropped another 0.83% since the week's beginning. The current loss for 2022 is 14%. As August draws to a close, it is clear that the British pound had the worst month of any major currency, losing value relative to all of its G10 competitors. Further losses are likely since the drop of the pound indicates a pervasive and unshakeable unfavorable attitude among investors worldwide. The UK currency is on track to become the worst performing major currency of 2022 within a matter of weeks given its present performance and tendencies. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Forex: Market Is Dependent On Fed's Shortly Message

US Dollar Driven By Hawkish Fed (EUR/USD), Pound Sterling Struggled Throughout August (EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.09.2022 17:56
Summary: The USD strengthened by a hawkish Fed. GBP struggled in August. Euro value declined against USD on Thursday The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Thursday sees a decline in the value of the Euro as markets are swept by a steadfast US Dollar following additional hawkish remarks from Fed speakers. Despite the market leaning toward a 75 basis-point increase at the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting next week as a result of yesterday's higher than expected CPI, the EUR/USD was unable to gain traction. The US dollar's ascent is unabated, and it appears that it will soon reach highs last seen in 2002 as the preferred safety play. This week, a new wave of risk-off trading sent USD pairings higher and equity markets lower across a number of markets. US Treasury yields have reached multi-year highs as US interest rate expectations continue to rise. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP touching June lows The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. One analyst said there is little reason to expect an improvement over the upcoming weeks or months as the value of the pound relative to the euro has dropped substantially over the past few days and is currently at levels last seen in June. The Pound suffered in August, with analysts attributing its poor performance to worries that the UK's debt load will rise as the next administration tries to mitigate the effects of the cost of living problem. This occurs as the Bank of England raises interest rates, driving up the yield paid on gilts, the name for UK government debt. The Bank of England gave historically low interest rates during the Covid crisis and actively purchased government debt as part of its quantitative easing program. As a result, the government was able to increase borrowing without any problems. However, the Bank will now actively sell government debt and may raise rates by an additional 50 basis points in September, significantly restricting the government's ability to borrow money as the nation grapples with yet another crisis. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/AUD Despite a great August making the Australian Dollar one of the better performing currencies of 2022, experts at investment bank Goldman Sachs said they remain concerned on the currency on a "tactical basis." The announcement that one of China's major cities has been placed on lockdown as the government of the nation pursues a "zero covid" strategy to combat the coronavirus raises doubts about the near-term prospects for Australia's top export market. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Italian industrial production fell again in June, raising doubts over 3Q growth

Euro To US Dollar Index Falls - Touching Levels Not Seen In 20 Years

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.09.2022 00:01
Summary: Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting during this crucial week for the euro. Russia cuts off Nord Stream gas supply. A crucial week for the Euro. But is still at risk as energy issues become more apparent. Euro Index suffers in the wake of Russia Turning off the gas taps Monday saw a new 20-year low for the euro as concerns about a worsening energy crisis in the area increased as Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe through its main pipeline. In recent months, there has been an increase in the correlation between the euro and natural gas prices, with the latter declining as energy prices rise. Before the chilly winter months, Europe is frantically trying to wean itself off Russian supply and build up reserves, but many predict a significant economic damage. Invoking an oil leak in a turbine, Russia postponed a Saturday deadline for the Nord Stream pipeline to begin carrying oil. It happened at the same time that the Group of Seven finance ministers announced a limit on Russian oil prices. Early in European trading, the euro fell to $0.9876, its lowest level since 2002, before bouncing back to $0.9939, but down 0.2% on the day. "Gas flows have been curtailed even more than expected and we have already seen evidence of demand destruction weighing on activity," said Michael Cahill, a strategist at Goldman Sachs. "We now expect the Euro to fall further below parity ($0.97) and remain around that level for the next six months," he added. Investors are gearing up for Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting during this crucial week for the euro, as markets have priced in a nearly 80% possibility of a massive 75 basis point (bp) interest rate hike. The stabilization of the euro, which has lost over 8% of its value over the last three months, will be welcomed by ECB policymakers. That will fuel the desire to tighten policy in an effort to control inflation. EUR/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, reuters.com
EUR/USD Dropped To New Multi-year Lows, Truss Delivers A Convincing Package To Beat The Cost Of Living Crisis (EUR/GBP), RBA Interest Rate Decision (GBP/AUD)

EUR/USD Dropped To New Multi-year Lows, Truss Delivers A Convincing Package To Beat The Cost Of Living Crisis (EUR/GBP), RBA Interest Rate Decision (GBP/AUD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.09.2022 22:12
Summary: U.S. economy is doing well despite tighter monetary policy. Truss - The new UK prime minister as of Tuesday. RBA interest rate decision. EUR/USD hits multi-year lows on Tuesday The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. On Tuesday due to negative sentiment, the EUR/USD dropped to new multi-year lows, briefly touching 0.9865 in choppy trading after U.S. markets resumed trading after the Labor Day holiday on Monday. Even while the euro was able to somewhat recoup some of its losses during the day, broad U.S. dollar rise in the early afternoon hampered the currency's sentiment. As a result of a rise in U.S. Treasury rates, which drove both short-term and particularly long-dated yields considerably higher, DXY rose as much as 0.85% at one point. Bond prices rose in part as a result of better-than-expected statistics from the U.S. services sector. The non-manufacturing PMI for August rose to 56.9 versus 55.1 predicted, according to the Institute for Supply Management, which indicates that the economy is still very robust. The fact that the U.S. economy is doing well despite tighter monetary policy suggests that the central bank will likely move forward with its plans to raise interest rates a few more times in the upcoming months, keeping them there for longer than initially anticipated to reduce inflation, which would be bullish for the dollar. However, for the time being, a dovish pivot will not materialize. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP supported by Truss’ policies The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The British pound has had a terrible year, but if the incoming prime minister can present a convincing package of policies to address the cost of living crisis, the pound may recover in the remaining months of the year. According to a number of media publications, Truss, who became prime minister on Tuesday, may implement a plan to cap energy costs at £130 billion. She's also expected to make a major tax cut announcement as part of one of her major campaign promises. According to sources, the UK's incoming Prime Minister is thinking about freezing energy prices for millions of homes this winter, a move that may reduce the country's inflation rates by as much as four percentage points. According to Capital Economics, an independent research firm, core inflation would nevertheless continue to be stubbornly high and attract additional Bank of England interest rate increases. EUR/GBP Price Chart RBA decided on 50bps interest rate hike The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised interest rates by another 50 basis points, together with indications that the central bank is reaching the conclusion of its tightening cycle, left the Australian Dollar floundering. By raising rates by 50 basis points, the RBA satisfied market expectations and promised additional rate increases in its outlook. Sterling pounds According to Live's RBA preview, the currency would be more affected by the direction of future raises than by a 50 basis point increase, which would provide little support to the Australian dollar. We warned that the Australian dollar might suffer from a "dovish" hike, in which the Bank sought to curb expectations for additional assertive action. The RBA brings Australia's basic lending rate into a range of 2-3% that it views as the "neutral" position by raising the Cash Rate to 2.35%. As a result, it holds that interest rates are neither restrictive nor stimulatory, which lends support to the idea that the RBA may start to contemplate easing back. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Policy Decision - Met Market Expectations

Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Policy Decision - Met Market Expectations

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.09.2022 16:03
Summary: Bank of Canada interest rate decision. BoC met market expectations. Bank of Canada meets market expectations The Bank of Canada (BoC) met the market expectations on Wednesday by hiking their interest rates by 75bps up to 3.25% from 2.5%. Their Ivey PMI beat market expectations which were set at 48.3, but came in at an actual value of 60.9. Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 75 basis points, continues quantitative tighteninghttps://t.co/YXW4npzhVA#economy #cdnecon — Bank of Canada (@bankofcanada) September 7, 2022 Bank of Canada In order to safeguard the economy by limiting the amount that interest rates might need to increase over the medium term, the BoC increased its cash rate from 1.75% to 2.5% in July. This was done as part of a strategy to move monetary policy to an economically restrictive level sooner rather than later. Despite the fact that interest rate derivative market pricing implies that investors already expect the benchmark to climb further and as far as 3.75% by year's end, the BoC considers that restrictive threshold to involve a cash rate that is a place above the 3% level. “The Bank's commitment to front-loading rate hikes in the face of red-hot inflation means an even bigger 100 bps increase (matching July's hike) can't be ruled out. Canadian employment (Friday) is expected to rise 5K in August following two consecutive monthly declines. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 5.0%, which is still very low,” says Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. With the approaching Bank of Canada rate decision expected today and the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, we will undoubtedly use expectations to our advantage. Expectations play a significant part in the market impact of major event risk. In this meeting, both are expected to raise their respective benchmark rates by 75 basis points, but the former is doing so based on a 100-basis-point increase at its last meeting and the discount of a hawkish central bank. Sources: dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com, investing.com
The Japanese Yen Has The Worst Performer Among The G-10 Currencies

US Dollar’s Unwavering Strength (EUR/USD), EUR/GBP, USD/JPY Falls To Lowest Level Seen Since 1998

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.09.2022 16:25
Summary USD/JPY hitting lowest levels in 24 years. USD still strong. Expectations of the next interest rate hike from BoE fell. EUR/USD currency pair The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Since the US Dollar continues to rise and shows little sign of slowing, it has been a wrecking ball for the foreign exchange markets. I would exercise caution in pursuing this upside, though, given that the most recent US CPI is right around the horizon. The inclination would be to downplay US dollar declines. The 0.99 handle serves as support for the euro, and although there has been a breach below it, there hasn't yet been a close below it. The language used, such as expressing a willingness to enter restrictive territory as opposed to merely front-loading policy to play catch-up, will be crucial in determining whether the Euro can find a floor, even though the ECB is preparing to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its meeting tomorrow. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP declines The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Bank of England enters the scene and hits the already weak pound just as the market was concentrating on the new prime minister, Liz Truss. Following comments made by members of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), markets quickly reduced their expectations for a 75 basis point interest rate hike at next week's policy decision, causing a steep decline in the value of the pound. The panel's comments show that the Bank is still hesitant to hike interest rates in order to combat inflation and instead is betting that prices would decline as the economy weakens. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD continues to strengthen Today, the Japanese Yen's value against the US Dollar fell to its lowest level since 1998. In order to keep bond yields low, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) reaffirmed its yield curve control (YCC) program on Wednesday, despite the Fed's unambiguous indication that rates will rise. Today, the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) traded close to the 0.25% upper limit set by the central bank. The bank then declared that they would increase their bond buying as part of their planned operations. The 2-year note currently trades at 3.75%, with Treasury rates continuing to fly higher. Everywhere it has increased, the US dollar has. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Markets Still Hope That The Fed May Consider Softer Decision

The ECB Interest Rate Decision - Met Market Expectations

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.09.2022 14:25
Summary: ECB policy rate decision. ECB met interest rate expectations. ECB Decision Met Expectations The ECB on Thursday hiked interest rates by 75bps - meeting market expectations. Deposit Facility rate of the ECB exceeded market expectations, by 25bps, coming in at a 75bps rate hike. ECB Interest rate Decision The European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcement on Thursday may have some potential effects on the foreign exchange market, according to a "crib sheet" published by ING Bank. The market is anticipating a 75 basis point increase as the ECB looks to take swift action against inflation before the Eurozone's growth slows and a recession takes hold. However, ING economists believe that the market is mistaken in using 75 basis points, which might be the day's first significant source of volatility for the Euro. "Policymakers in Frankfurt will likely have to choose between a 50bp or 75bp rate hike this week. We think that a 75bp move would be too hard to digest for the dovish front within the Governing Council, and our call is for a 50bp move," says Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange strategist at ING. According to ING's base case scenario, a 50bp would fall short of market expectations, causing the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) to decline. In this base scenario, the ECB also projects weaker growth rates for the Eurozone, anticipating a wintertime recession. While high inflation will continue, it will start to decline over the outlook horizon, according to ECB predictions. If the ECB took an even more "dovish" posture, they would raise interest rates by 25 basis points as they assessed the severity of the impending economic slowdown, which would be reflected in their revised GDP projections. Inflation forecasts that indicate prices drop down to the 2.0% target over the forecast horizon would also be part of this dovish scenario. According to this call, the EUR/USD is expected to trade close to 0.96. However, the ECB will be keenly aware of the effects their decisions will have on the Euro because a weak Euro itself is an inflationary phenomenon because it drives up the price of importing commodities. This is especially detrimental during a crisis brought on by high gas and oil import prices. Sources: investing.com, poundtserlinglive.com
The EUR/USD Pair Is Still In A High Position On The 1H Chart

ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR/USD), UK Government Plans To Cap Gas Prices (EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.09.2022 15:45
Summary: ECB raised all 3 major interest rates by 75bps. UK Government capping gas prices for next 2 years. RBA nearing the end of its interest rate hiking cycle. ECB interest rate hikes The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. To combat record-high inflation in the Euro Area, the ECB increased each of the three major interest rates by 75 basis points. Markets and experts had generally anticipated the decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, thus the first impact on the Euro has been muted so far. The ECB also noted that the governing council anticipates raising rates during the coming sessions, which is consistent with money market pricing, which projects a further 92 basis points of tightening by year's end. Looking ahead, attention will primarily be on ECB President Lagarde's news conference, where she is expected to discuss the necessity to raise interest rates into restrictive territory (above neutral rates) in order to support the euro in the short term. The energy crisis, which continues to put pressure on the Euro through parity, is the major story, though. EUR/USD Price Chart UK Government to cap gas prices The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Following the announcement that the UK government would cap annual UK gas prices at £2500 for the next two years, the likelihood of a stronger finish to 2022 for the British Pound moved closer. An influential economist claims that the action effectively keeps UK inflation at current levels and averts the possibility of a recession. Investors have dumped sterling in recent months due to concerns that the UK would be among the nations worst affected by a confluence of rising inflation and slowing economic growth. Therefore, Truss' intervention refutes this claim, stating that the changes will probably reduce inflation's predicted peak by 5 percentage points. EUR/GBP Price Chart RBA nearing the end of their interest rate hiking cycle The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is reaching the conclusion of its interest rate hike cycle, according to Governor Philip Lowe, which will cause the Australian Dollar to weaken. In the meantime, data indicating the nation's outstanding trade surplus shrank in July put additional pressure on the Australian dollar. According to Lowe, disparities between Australian and American pay setting practices allow the RBA to afford to slow pace. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Interest Rates In Eurozone Will Continue To Increase In The Coming Meetings

Euro Shows Strength On Monday (EUR/USD), UK Inflation Data Ahead (EUR/GBP), USD Gains Against The JPY(USD/JPY)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 12.09.2022 14:25
Summary: Ukrainian resistance in the country's east boosted the Euro. EUR/GBP may struggle in the wake of UK inflation data release. USD had a rough start to the week against the euro. Euro strengthened during Monday’s session The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The news of Ukrainian resistance in the country's east as Ukrainian soldiers launched a counteroffensive caused the euro to rally by a significant 1.4% this morning. Bringing our attention back to the ECB, there was evident unhappiness among the board members after the significant 75 basis point increase was fully anticipated by the markets and had little to no impact on them. The infamous ECB "sources" said shortly after President Lagarde's address that rate increases could reach 2% (restrictive territory) to fight inflation and hinted in some way that the 2023 growth prediction was a bit on the "rosy" side. Finally, sources claimed that QT was imminent, with negotiations set to begin in October and a likely announcement to be made at the October ECB meeting. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP risk could increase The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. In the days ahead, when the market will likely be most interested in UK inflation data that could further increase the already elevated risk of aggressive interest rate action from the Bank of England (BoE) next week, the Pound to Euro exchange rate may struggle to get off the ground after falling last week. When the Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision for September on September 22 after delaying it to accommodate the nation's day of mourning for Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, the new fiscal package might have a substantial impact on the BoE's monetary policy. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/JPY currency pair The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar had a mixed week to start, falling versus the Euro but rising once more against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY moved closer to Friday's 8-year high as a result. Other currency combinations were generally quiet. Despite further browbeating from Japanese officials—this time from Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara—the Yen weakened. He mentioned that excessively one-sided currency movements are being watched. In order to take advantage of the depreciating Yen and stimulate the economy, Japan recently announced a relaxation of travel regulations for visitors traveling domestically. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com  
Analysis Of The US Dollar Currency Index Price Movement

US Dollar Rallies In The Wake Of CPI Inflation Data

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.09.2022 18:17
Summary: U.S. inflation is running hotter than markets anticipated. Core inflation reading is the one that concerns the Fed the most. Core CPI increased by 0.6% in Augus US CPI Inflation Missed Market Expectations Data that showed U.S. inflation is running hotter than markets anticipated caused the Dollar to rise dramatically, giving the Federal Reserve more confidence to hike interest rates. After U.S. headline CPI inflation rose 8.3% year-over-year in August, defying expectations for a reading of 8.1%, stocks dropped and the safe-haven high-yielding Dollar surged, though it was still lower than July's 8.5%. But contrary to forecasts for a decline, the month-over-month metric increased by 0.1%, the BLS reported, up from July's reading of 0%. The core inflation reading will be the one that concerns the Fed the most. Core CPI increased by 0.6% in August, exceeding both the 0.3% market expectation and the 0.3% result in July. Core CPI inflation is the form of inflation that the Fed may be able to control through higher interest rates because it is domestically based and therefore excludes external factors like energy prices. Core CPI inflation increased by 6.3% on an annual basis, exceeding both July's 5.9% and the market's expectations of 6.1%. LISTEN NOW: Inflation rose 8.3% year-over-year — we discuss the hotter-than-expected CPI number. Listen and follow the @SquawkStreet podcast here or on your favorite podcast platform: https://t.co/BoklbeW3jy pic.twitter.com/v2SxAuQfsh — CNBC (@CNBC) September 13, 2022 With a 1.40% increase against the New Zealand Dollar and a 0.84% increase against the Euro, the dollar advanced versus all the major currencies. "In response to the data, all G10 currencies weakened against the US dollar, with the largest losses seen in currencies that had recently benefited from the improvement in risk conditions. The pound, euro, yen, Kiwi dollar, Aussie dollar, and Swedish krona have now recorded losses in excess of one percent against the greenback, while the Norwegian krone posted the largest decline as it is down 2% on the day," says Jay Zhao-Murray, Market Analyst at Monex Canada. Even though gasoline prices were down significantly, the U.S. inflation surprise still occurred, suggesting that the energy shock is still having an impact. However, everyone is still surprised by the lag. In the event that workers seek greater wage agreements and businesses increase their prices, the Fed will be eager to boost rates. Sources: poundsterlinglive.com
Thursday's Bank's of England decision may be record-breaking!

UK CPI Inflation Data Reflected The First Drop In 1 Year

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.09.2022 15:28
Summary: UK CPI inflation beat market expectations. UK CPI Inflation fell from its 40-year high reached in July. UK CPI Inflation Data Beat Market Expectations In August, the Bank of England and households experienced an unexpected - and presumably transitory - decrease in consumer price inflation for the first time in almost a year. Following a 40-year high of 10.1% in July, annual consumer price rise fell to 9.9% on Wednesday, according to the Office for National Statistics. This was the first decline since September 2021 and fell short of the 10.2% increase predicted by a Reuters poll. However, experts cautioned that inflation was anticipated to peak at approximately 11% in October, when a new home energy tariff cap begins, and that it might be difficult to decline because of underlying pressures and a new fiscal stimulus from the government. ⚠️BREAKING:*UK CPI INFLATION RISES 9.9% IN AUGUST, DOWN FROM 40-YEAR HIGH OF 10.1% 🇬🇧🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/Lc5in4fnrW — Investing.com (@Investingcom) September 14, 2022 Following the passing of Queen Elizabeth, the British central bank decided to postpone raising interest rates until next Thursday. On September 22, the BoE is expected to increase rates by 0.75 percentage points to 2.5%, according to financial markets. With the exception of a temporary attempt to support sterling during a 1992 exchange rate crisis, this would be its largest rate increase since 1989. Despite a slowing economy at risk of recession, the majority of economists surveyed by Reuters believe a half-point increase is more plausible, and they also anticipate the BoE to keep raising rates into next year. A severe pressure on living standards has been brought about in Britain by the rise in European natural gas prices brought on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has been compounded by post-COVID labor shortages and supply-chain bottlenecks. Inflation is lowest in several European nations, notably Spain and the Netherlands, but it is the highest among the G7's major advanced economies in the UK. Prime Minister Liz Truss's capping household energy costs The incoming Prime Minister Liz Truss's decision to cap household energy costs, which will increase by 25% rather than 80% in October, has made it marginally easier for the BoE to achieve its goal of returning inflation to its 2% objective, at least in the short term. Before the cap, analysts predicted that inflation may reach 15% or higher early the following year. In addition to promising other help and tax cuts, the government is anticipated to employ public borrowing to make up for the lower rates charged by energy providers. This is anticipated to cost approximately 100 billion pounds ($116 billion). According to experts, this additional stimulus for an economy that is nearly at full employment and experiencing the lowest unemployment rate since 1974 would prolong domestic inflation pressures and force the BoE to raise rates further in order to bring inflation back to its 2% objective. Sources: Reuters.com
The British Pound Is Showing Signs Of Exhaustion Of The Bullish Force

US Dollar Rose In The Wake Of US CPI Inflation Reports (EUR/USD), UK CPI Inflation Data Exceeded Market Expectations (EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.09.2022 17:11
Summary: Money market pricing indicates that the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points. UK CPI inflation rate was lower in August than it was in July. According to economists, the Australian Dollar will fare better than any other major currency in 2022. USD rose, gold futures fell & stocks dropped sharply The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The US Dollar rose, gold prices fell, and US stocks dropped sharply on Tuesday as a result of the August US CPI report's substantial effect on the financial markets. Headline Inflation in the US gained +0.1% m/m and +8.3% y/y, above expectations of no gain m/m and an increase of +8.1% y/y. Also hotter than anticipated, the core reading came in at +0.6% m/m versus a projection of +0.3%, while the y/y stood at +6.3% versus +6.1% anticipated. Money market pricing indicates that the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points, but the tail-risk surprise has changed from a 50 to a 100 basis point increase. This reveals where the momentum is: more rate increases will result in the Fed Funds rate peak being higher than anticipated before the inflation report. EUR/USD Price Chart Has UK Inflation hit its peak? The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Pound Sterling increased the day after the news broke. The UK CPI inflation rate was lower in August than it was in July, indicating that the price increase's peak may have already passed. This would be a favorable development for the outlook of the UK economy and, consequently, the Pound. However, the Bank of England's decision on September 22 looms large, and the final position of Sterling at the end of September may depend on whether they choose to raise interest rates by 75 or 50 basis points. According to analysts at certain large investment institutions, the market is expecting a 75 basis point increase from the Bank, which it must provide to maintain stable Pound exchange rates. The pound would decline if the Bank of England disappointed markets with a modest increase. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/AUD currency pair According to recent research from BMO Capital Markets, the Australian Dollar is a "quality" currency that is expected to increase in value against the U.S. Dollar and all other major currencies in the upcoming months. According to a BMO analysis of the Aussie Dollar, it is one of the best-performing currencies in 2022 because of a strong set of underlying reasons that support it. According to economists, the Australian Dollar will fare better than any other major currency in 2022 thanks to the nation's strong export market and sound domestic fundamentals. Australia's foreign exchange revenues have increased due to rising commodity prices, which has supported its currency. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Will The US Dollar Continue To Be Strong And To Keep Growing Or Maybe Situation Will Be Reversed

Strong US Dollar Index Driving EUR/USD Down & USD/JPY Up, economists predict that the Pound will continue to decline (EUR/GBP), USD/JPY

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.09.2022 18:57
Summary: Early trading saw the EUR/USD falling below parity once more. The British Pound dropped to its lowest level against the Dollar on Friday and hit lows against the Euro that haven't been seen since February 2021. Strong US Dollar index driving USD/JPY down. EUR/USD falls below parity once more The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Early trading saw the EUR/USD falling below parity once more while failing to surpass Friday's peak. While markets look apprehensive after US President Joe Biden said the US military would defend Taiwan in the case of an invasion by China, we witnessed the USD index open higher and push on, supporting a +/-60 pip loss on EUR/USD and other currency pairs. The downward movement in the EUR/USD rate this morning appears to be driven by the dollar index. Despite numerous investment banks and the World Bank reducing their growth projections for the US economy and issuing a global recession warning, the index kept moving higher. EUR/USD Price Chart Economists predict that the Pound will continue to decline. The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Although there is a remote chance the currency would recover by the end of the upcoming week when a Bank of England rate hike and the "mini budget" are announced, economists predict that the Pound will continue to decline. The British Pound dropped to its lowest level against the Dollar on Friday and hit lows against the Euro that haven't been seen since February 2021 before the monetary and fiscal double-header. Following the publication of poor UK retail sales statistics that led economists to warn that the country is already in recession, the pound's losses for 2022 increased. Contrary to estimates, retail sales declined 1.6% in the month of August instead of a somewhat smaller -0.5%. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/JPY The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. After failing to break over 145, USD/JPY is still in an ascending trend channel. 144.95 may continue to act as resistance because it is the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension of the late-July decline from 139.39 to 130.39. It has recently been tested, reaching peaks of 144.97 and 144.99, the latter of which is a 24-year high. This region might be crucial for the next significant USD/JPY movement. The Bank of Japan called banks in Tokyo last week as 145 approached, requesting a rate review. The market has interpreted this to mean that the central bank may be considering intervening should the price rise above 145. Of course, if the price trades over that level and they do not act, an aggressive move might be observed. The following potential resistance level to watch could be the ascending trend line that now splits around 145.90. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The Agressive Rate Hikes By The Fed Did Not Lead To A Deeper Recession

EUR/USD Exposed To Fed Interest Rate Decision Risk, BoE Interest Rate Decision Due This Week (EUR/GBP, GBP/CAD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.09.2022 17:34
Summary: EUR/USD exposed to risks related to the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday. The BoE interest rate decision on Thursday will be crucial. GBP/CAD may now be on the verge of lurching toward all-time lows. Euro is still stronger than some other currencies The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. The EUR/USD has been able to maintain its stability recently by simply remaining stable, which isn't really saying much for it. The Euro to Dollar exchange rate began the new week near parity and exposed to risks related to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday, however there is an admittedly remote chance that the latter could spark a firecracker surge by the single currency later this week. The Euro is still stronger than some of the other currencies, but it is expected to keep falling against the Dollar and reach new cycle lows. EUR/USD Price Chart BoE interest rate on Thursday The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The exchange rate between the pound and the euro has fallen for seven straight weeks, but it might go considerably further this week and possibly to record lows if the market panics about a probable Bank of England (BoE) decision to sharply raise Bank Rate on Thursday. With the scale of the most recent Bank Rate increase and any hints or guidance regarding the outlook for the benchmark, the BoE interest rate decision on Thursday will be crucial, yet there is a risk that the bank will feel pressured to literally knock the Bank Rate ball out of the park. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/CAD How the market could be likely to react to any particularly substantial interest rate rise from the Bank of England (BoE) this Thursday, the Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate may now be on the verge of lurching toward all-time lows. Although there is a chance it might fall further if the BoE smashes the Bank Rate ball out of the park on Thursday, sterling crept higher versus the Canadian Dollar to start a holiday-shortened week and remained safely above the 12-year lows reached over a fortnight earlier. A recent increase in core inflation, the BoE's most recent Inflation Attitudes Survey, and the new UK Prime Minister's proposal to freeze or cap household energy costs through public subsidy are reasons to believe it might as well. These factors could influence policymakers to view this as a medium-term inflation risk. GBP/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Agressive Rate Hikes By The Fed Did Not Lead To A Deeper Recession

The Fed Interest Rate Decision, Stock/Bond Portfolios, ECB’s Determination To Reach Price Stability

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 20.09.2022 21:12
On Wednesday the Fed is due to make their interest rate decision. A US portfolio that is split 60/40 between stocks and bonds is headed for its worst year since 1937. ECB is determined to deliver price stability through rising interest rates.   In this article: The Fed’s Interest rate hike tomorrow. US Stock/Bond portfolio down. The ECB is determined to fight inflation through rising interest rates. The Fed due to make their interest rate decision on Wednesday The SwissQuote tweeted about the expectations the market has ahead of the Fed’s interest rate hike decision on Wednesday. Fed will likely hike by 75bp ; SNB will likely follow! ▶️ Discover today's market highlights on our #MarketTalk with @IpekOzkardeskay: https://t.co/Lzfate1wod pic.twitter.com/ZnOfnyHVvM — Swissquote (in English) (@Swissquote) September 20, 2022 On Wednesday the Fed is due to make their interest rate decision, this interest rate decision came in the wake of the US CPI inflation results which were released during last weeks trading week. US Stock/Bond portfolio is suffering According to Charlie Bilello a US Stock/Bond portfolio is likely to experience its worse financial performance in 86 years. A 60/40 Portfolio of US Stocks/Bonds is down 16.2% in 2022, on pace for its worst calendar year since 1937. pic.twitter.com/d6gnbohRLw — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 20, 2022   A US portfolio that is split 60/40 between stocks and bonds is headed for its worst year since 1937. European central bank (ecb) determined to fight inflation The president of the ECB Christine Lagarde makes it clear that the ECB is determined to fight inflation through rising interest rates. We are determined to deliver price stability, and expect to raise interest rates further to achieve 2% inflation, says President @Lagarde. We must settle at a rate that ensures inflation returns durably to our target, as the economic environment evolves https://t.co/d5HvwVEiR0 pic.twitter.com/mCXxS1yk1f — European Central Bank (@ecb) September 20, 2022   The ECB is determined to deliver price stability through rising interest rates. The ECB is willing to settle the rate of inflation at its target.    Sources: twitter.com
The Fed Interest Rate Decision, Stock/Bond Portfolios, ECB’s Determination To Reach Price Stability  - 20.09.2022

The Fed Interest Rate Decision, Stock/Bond Portfolios, ECB’s Determination To Reach Price Stability - 20.09.2022

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.09.2022 23:00
On Wednesday the Fed is due to make their interest rate decision. A US portfolio that is split 60/40 between stocks and bonds is headed for its worst year since 1937. ECB is determined to deliver price stability through rising interest rates. In this article: The Fed’s Interest rate hike tomorrow. US Stock/Bond portfolio down. The ECB is determined to fight inflation through rising interest rates. The Fed due to make their interest rate decision on Wednesday The SwissQuote tweeted about the expectations the market has ahead of the Fed’s interest rate hike decision on Wednesday. Fed will likely hike by 75bp ; SNB will likely follow! â–¶ï¸Â Discover today's market highlights on our #MarketTalk with @IpekOzkardeskay: https://t.co/Lzfate1wod pic.twitter.com/ZnOfnyHVvM — Swissquote (in English) (@Swissquote) September 20, 2022   On Wednesday the Fed is due to make their interest rate decision, this interest rate decision came in the wake of the US CPI inflation results which were released during last weeks trading week. US Stock/Bond portfolio is suffering According to Charlie Bilello a US Stock/Bond portfolio is likely to experience its worse financial performance in 86 years. A 60/40 Portfolio of US Stocks/Bonds is down 16.2% in 2022, on pace for its worst calendar year since 1937. pic.twitter.com/d6gnbohRLw — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 20, 2022   A US portfolio that is split 60/40 between stocks and bonds is headed for its worst year since 1937. European central bank (ecb) determined to fight inflation The president of the ECB Christine Lagarde makes it clear that the ECB is determined to fight inflation through rising interest rates. We are determined to deliver price stability, and expect to raise interest rates further to achieve 2% inflation, says President @Lagarde. We must settle at a rate that ensures inflation returns durably to our target, as the economic environment evolves https://t.co/d5HvwVEiR0 pic.twitter.com/mCXxS1yk1f — European Central Bank (@ecb) September 20, 2022   The ECB is determined to deliver price stability through rising interest rates. The ECB is willing to settle the rate of inflation at its target. Sources: twitter.com
US Dollar Pushed Upwards Ahead Of The Fed’s Interest Rate Decision, Russia Not Showing Signs Of Slowing Down On The War (EUR/GBP), GBP/NZD

US Dollar Pushed Upwards Ahead Of The Fed’s Interest Rate Decision, Russia Not Showing Signs Of Slowing Down On The War (EUR/GBP), GBP/NZD

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.09.2022 19:03
Summary: Euro fell back to its lows from early September below parity with the US Dollar. ECB hawkish tone. Thursday may cause the GBP/NZD to drop to some of its lowest points since the months immediately following the Brexit referendum. Euro weakens as Putin dashed hope for an end to the Russia/Ukraine conflict The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. On Wednesday, the Euro fell back to its lows from early September below parity with the US Dollar as Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to dash any remaining hope for a quick resolution to the war in Ukraine. Markets anticipate additional rate increases even if there is optimism that, at least in the US, inflation may finally be under control. The Fed is projected to increase rates by a full percentage point. The war in Ukraine is continuing to drive up the cost of energy and raw materials on a continent that is still recovering economically from the Covid epidemic, so the European Union cannot resort to such solace. EUR/USD Price Chart BoE interest rate decision due on Wednesday The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Although the European Central Bank has recently adopted a more hawkish tone, the Fed continues to have significantly more monetary firepower and flexibility to use it, according to the market. This opinion can only be strengthened by indications that the Ukrainian conflict will continue to rage. Great hopes: The markets are anticipating the Bank of England to raise interest rates twice in a row by 75 basis points, which might lead to a massive letdown for the British pound. As of right now, money markets are pricing in 200 basis point increases over the next three decisions, which means the Bank will need to raise rates by 75 basis points at two of those sessions. This is more than any other developed market central bank has requested. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/NZD currency pair During the midweek session, the New Zealand Dollar extended a 15-month downtrend against the U.S. Dollar and appeared to be headed for March 2020 lows. However, it may have better chances against Sterling, which could experience significant losses in the wake of Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) policy decision. If the author is correct in believing the BoE will actually raise rates much farther than all forecasts anticipate on Thursday, sterling's historically unfavorable reaction to Bank Rate rises could be doubly relevant for GBP/NZD this week. If this obviously improbable prediction comes true, then the BoE's decision on Thursday may cause the GBP/NZD to drop to some of its lowest points since the months immediately following the Brexit referendum. The decision on Thursday will be made just over a week after the Office for National Statistics reported a new increase in core inflation for August, and shortly after the Bank of England's Inflation Attitudes survey indicated that households' expectations for medium-term inflation remained at potentially alarming levels in July. GBP/NZD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Did The Federal Reserve Beat Market Expectations During Their Wednesday Interest Rate Announcement?!

Did The Federal Reserve Beat Market Expectations During Their Wednesday Interest Rate Announcement?!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.09.2022 20:04
Summary: The markets expected a 75bps hike from the Fed. Fed met expectations with a 75 bps rate hike. Chances of an economic recession persists. The Federal Reserve chose to hike their interest rates The Fed met market expectations by hiking interest rates by 75bps on Wednesday. In the wake of the August US CPI inflation numbers, the market priced in a 75bps rate hike from the Fed. As the Federal Reserve continues on its rate hiking cycle, the markets become increasingly concerned around the likelihood of a global economic recession. The effect of the interest rate hike on the US Dollar and the economy On the strength of another significant Federal Reserve rate hike this Wednesday, the Dollar is anticipated to remain sustained. The August inflation report reaffirmed expectations for another 75 basis point raise and language indicating the Fed will retain a solid commitment to bringing prices down, convincing investors that the Fed cannot yet wind down its rate-hiking cycle. The next "big moment" for the currency markets, and really all financial assets, will be when the Fed finally changes course and indicates the cycle of rate hikes is about to come to an end. The recent trends of Dollar strength and equity market downturn are anticipated to continue up until that point. When members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) present their forecasts for where they believe interest rates will go in the future, there won't likely be any indications of a pivot (the infamous Dot Plot chart). However, the idea of general resilience in the US economy should continue to be the baseline scenario. Revisions to other economic estimates are anticipated to indicate some signals of a worsening economic outlook. Investors discounting a drop in future corporate earnings and fearing a deeper global recession through the latter part of 2022 and into 2023 would certainly put pressure on global stock markets. Sources: poundsterlinglive.com, investing.com
The USD/JPY Pair Above 150! | Who Will Replace Liz Truss? | The Central Bank Of Turkey Cut Interest Rates

Yesterday's Decisions Strongly Influenced The Situation In The Market, How Will Today's Decisions Affect The Market?

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 22.09.2022 10:28
We thought that the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision would be the highlight of yesterday but news from Russia came to eclipse the FOMC. Putin’s announcement and Fed decision Vladimir Putin declared partial mobilization yesterday morning. Putin’s announcement, which fell like a bomb on investors who were already stressed out due to the Fed decision, sent capital to safe haven assets yesterday, but gains elsewhere than the US dollar remained short-lived.On the FOMC front, the Fed delivered the third 75bp hike yesterday, as expected, but the dot plot revealed that the officials’ rate projections went well above the market expectations. Banks' decisions The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its policy unchanged. The Swiss National Bank hiked by 75bp hike*. The Bank of England (BoE) could opt for 50bp hike, instead of 75bp, as Liz Truss’s energy package could help taming inflation. While the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) should keep its rate at 13%. BUT WHO KNOWS! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:28 Russia escalates tensions in Ukraine 2:35 Fed hikes 4:34 BoJ maintains status quo 5:42 SNB hikes, as expected*  6:12 BoE could hike by 50bp 7:30 Turkey: God knows. *decision came after the shooting of the show Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #FOMC #Fed #SNB #BoE #BoJ #CBT #rate #decision #jumbo #hikes #XAU #USD #JPY #GBP #CHF #TRY #BIST #Russia #Ukraine #war #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Did The Bank of England Miss, Meet or Beat Market Expectations?!

Did The Bank of England Miss, Meet or Beat Market Expectations?!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.09.2022 13:11
Summary: BoE interest rate decision. Any post-decision gains are expected to be sold into and prove fleeting. The BoE missed market expectations on Thursday regarding their interest rate hike decision. The BoE Missed market expectations The Bank of England (BoE) announced they would raise their central bank interest rate 50bps, missing the market's expectation of 75bps. The effect of the BoE interest rate hiking decision It is unclear what the effect of the BoE rising interest rates will have on the pound sterling currency. The exchange rate might increase if the Bank increases interest rates by 75 basis points, which would be the greatest increase since 1989, and shifts its prognosis for the economy. But for a central bank that has a history of falling short of market expectations and emphasizing the downside risks to the economy, this is a huge ask. The most plausible worst-case scenario would involve the Bank raising rates by less than anticipated (say, 50 bps) and cautioning that the economic outlook is still uncertain and subject to downside risks. The odds favor a downside reaction, according to currency market observers, and any post-decision gains are expected to be sold into and prove fleeting. A worldwide energy crisis, deteriorating domestic balance of payments, declining stock markets, an unrelentingly strong dollar, and an uncooperative Bank of England have all contributed to the Pound's bad year. The Bank of England's monetary policy is the one area where decision-makers have the power to provide the Pound with some short-term comfort, despite the fact that many of these challenges are medium- to long-term concerns and global in scope. Some of the pessimism and negative positioning may be challenged if the Bank shocks the markets with a more "hawkish" tone, allowing for a short-term leg upward. A rate increase of 75 basis points plus any improved commentary from the Bank may help the pound that day. Sources: poundsterlinglive.com
EUR/USD Touch 19-year Lows, BoE Interest Rate Decision (EUR/GBP), SNB Signals End Of Its Interest Rate Hiking Cycle (EUR/CHF)

EUR/USD Touch 19-year Lows, BoE Interest Rate Decision (EUR/GBP), SNB Signals End Of Its Interest Rate Hiking Cycle (EUR/CHF)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.09.2022 16:16
Summary: The SNB increased its interest rate for a second time on Thursday. BoE increased interest rates on Thursday by 50 basis points. Fed 75bps interest rate hike. EUR/USD touching 19 year lows The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. In the wake of the Federal Reserve's 75bps interest rate hike the falling wedge, which was keeping the door open for bullish reversal possibilities, is invalidated as the EUR/USD has dropped to a new 19-year bottom and is currently clinging to the swing-low from earlier in September, which is located between.9862 and.9876. As a result, the bearish side of the coin is once again in focus for the EUR/USD pair. Resistance is possible around the previous support level of.9950 as well as at parity if bulls can produce a stronger pullback. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP plummeted in the minutes after BoE interest rate announcement The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Bank of England increased interest rates on Thursday by 50 basis points, which was less than the 75 basis points the market was anticipating, and the British Pound plummeted in the minutes that followed. The pound had a sell-off in response to the boost that was lower than expected, and economists predict greater losses for the UK currency. The exchange rate between the pound and the euro dropped by 0.5 percent to 1.1434 in the 15 minutes after the decision, but it had recovered to 1.1470 by the time the U.S. stock market opened, bringing bank transfer rates to roughly 1.1240 and payment specialist rates to roughly 1.1440. EUR/GBP Price Chart SNB signals the end of their interest rate hiking cycle The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) increased its interest rate for a second time on Thursday, which caused the Swiss Franc to weaken. However, the SNB also warned against expecting future rate hikes through its inflation projections. After the SNB hiked its cash rate from -0.25% to 0.5% in a monetary policy move that echoed the Federal Reserve's on Wednesday, the Swiss Franc fell against a number of other currencies. Even while the Swiss central bank did not rule out future interest rate hikes, September's updated predictions suggested that, given the two increases in borrowing costs announced to date, the Swiss inflation rate will likely return to, if not fall below, 2% at the end of the forecast horizon. This suggests that Swiss authorities may already have done enough to bring inflation back in line with their concept of price stability. EUR/CHF Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
In Italy Private Investment Should Remain A Positive Growth Driver In 2023

The Italian Elections And Their Impact On The Euro, Interest Rates Around The World

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 23.09.2022 10:24
A busy week for central banks come to an end with plenty of rate hikes, increased prospects of slowing growth, that leave investors with a bad taste in their mouth. Eyes on rate hike The Swedish Riksbank was the first major central bank to surprise with a 100bp rate hike. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered its third 75bp hike. But the dot plot hinted at another jumbo hike before the year-end. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its policy rate unchanged at -0.10%, but intervened directly in the FX market to buy yen to fight back the strengthening dollar. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised its policy rate by 75bp. The Bank of England (BoE) opted for a 50bp hike, combined with an £80 billion Quantitative Tightening, and said the UK is now in recession. The UK will reveal the ‘mini’ budget today. Norges Bank also increased its policy rate by 50bp but signaled that tightening may be coming to an end. Indonesia and the Philippines also hiked by 50bp. Taiwan raised by a modest 12.5% as expected, Vietnam opted for a 100bp hike, South Africa raised by 75bp… …and Turkey… cut its rate by 100bp for the second consecutive meeting! But the week is not over. The Italian elections due Sunday will likely continue pressuring the euro lower. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:26 Keeping up with the central banks 4:37 UK 'mini' budget is all but mini. 6:15 Continue keeping up with the central banks 7:22 Market update 8:42 Into the Italian elections Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #FOMC #Fed #SNB #BoE #BoJ #CBT #rate #decision #jumbo #hikes #USD #JPY #GBP #EUR #CHF #TRY #BIST #UK #mini #budget #Italy #elections #crude #oil #FedEx #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Analysis Of The US Dollar Currency Index Price Movement

US Dollars Momentum Supported By Fed Interest Rate Hiking Road Map (EUR/USD, USD/CAD), UK & Europe Could Already Be In A Recession (EUR/GBP)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.09.2022 19:01
Summary: EUR/USD is close to 20 years lows. The UK and the Eurozone may have already entered recession in the third quarter of the year. Canadian Dollar plunged to its lowest level against the U.S. Dollar since July 2020. US Dollar remains supported The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. A day after the Federal Reserve approved another sizable hike and promised to keep tightening monetary policy firmly in order to control inflation, the EUR/USD lacked confidence on Thursday, fluctuating between tiny gains and losses. This is probably due to rising U.S. Treasury yields. The exchange rate is very close to one of its lowest points in more than 20 years, having fallen dramatically from the overnight session high of 0.9907 and trading mostly flat on the day at 0.9843. The Fed's hawkish roadmap, which anticipates 150 basis points of additional tightening up to the terminal rate of 4.6% in 2023, as well as its commitment to maintaining a restrictive stance for an extended period of time, should keep U.S. rates biased to the upside and support the dollar's momentum in the FX market. EUR/USD Price Chart Europe & the UK may have already entered recession The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. According to analyst and economist readings of the data, the latest round of S&P Global PMI Surveys of the manufacturing and services sectors revealed on Friday that the economies of the UK and the Eurozone may have already entered recession in the third quarter of the year. Energy markets and developments in Ukraine, where Russian occupation troops are anticipated to be strengthened following substantial recent setbacks for the invading army at the hands of Ukrainian forces, also attracted attention in Europe. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/CAD The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. This week, during another turbulent time for risky assets, the Canadian Dollar plunged to its lowest level against the U.S. Dollar since July 2020; however, updated BMO Capital Markets forecasts suggest that it may be due for one of the most significant recoveries if and when the dollar reaches its peak. The Canadian Dollar lost ground to the Swiss Franc on Friday as it dropped close to 73 cents versus the U.S. Dollar, but it still made significant gains over other currencies, several of which hit new multi-decade lows against the U.S. unit. USD/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Bank Of England Is Forced To Act Aggressively

Banks In The Old Continent Are Doing Their Best To Fight Inflation

ING Economics ING Economics 24.09.2022 08:18
The Swiss National Bank’s decision to introduce bank reserve tiering sheds light on similar potential decisions at the Bank of England and European Central Bank. Central banks have to balance monetary policy transmission, interest costs, and incentive structures for banks In this article SNB: actively moving to absorb liquidity BoE: saving money where it can ECB: peering into pandora’s box Source: Shutterstock European central banks are gradually adjusting their policy setting to a world of positive interest rates but with still abundant liquidity. The common theme here is that hundreds of billions, or trillions in the ECB’s case, of bank reserves will be remunerated at positive interest rates, at a cost for their central banks, and ultimately their domestic government treasury. SNB: actively moving to absorb liquidity The Swiss National Bank (SNB) was the first one to actually implement a reserve tiering system at its September meeting. In a nutshell, banks’ sight deposits at the SNB up to a certain threshold will earn the SNB policy rate, currently 0.5%, and 0% on balances above that threshold. This, however, is only part of the story. In parallel, the SNB announced it will conduct liquidity-absorbing operations (Open Market Operations or OMOs). With a threshold set at an elevated 28 times banks required reserves, it won’t take much effort for the SNB to absorb enough liquidity so that all that remains is remunerated at the SNB. In effect, the SNB rate should remain the marginal rate in CHF money markets, and tiering should act as an incentive for banks to participate in liquidity-absorbing operations. The SNB's goal seems to be to make sure higher policy rates are transmitted to the economy The upshot is that the main feature of the new liquidity set-up at the SNB will be to remove liquidity from the system as it tightens policy in order to get inflation under control. There is likely to be only marginal interest rate savings for the central bank on its CHF640bn of sight deposits, if at all, but this doesn’t seem to be the point of the policy change. Rather the SNB's goal seems to be to make sure higher policy rates are transmitted to the economy. Bank reserves at the BoE will decline with QT, but not fast enough to save much interest cost to the BoE   Source:Refinitiv, ING BoE: saving money where it can There have been persistent press reports that the UK is looking to reduce the amount of interest it pays to banks. This is a more pressing issue in the UK because bank reserves now approach £945bn and the swap curve is implying that the Bank Rate could climb to 5% next year. This is something of a worst-case scenario, but this would result in an interest rate bill approaching £50bn per year. In practice, we think that rate hike expectations are exaggerated, and the BoE intends to reduce its bond holdings, and so the amount of reserves, by £80bn per year at least. At a time of large open-ended fiscal support to energy consumers, the Treasury could be forgiven for trying to save on this interest rate bill. The Treasury could be forgiven for trying to save on its interest rate bill Two options present themselves to the BoE. Designing a reserve tiering system akin to the SNB would allow it to gradually reduce the amount of liquidity in the system. Interest cost saving would probably be underwhelming at first, but it could attempt to gradually increase the amount of liquidity withdrawn from the system, thus also supporting its monetary tightening stance. Inversely, it could determine a fixed amount of reserves that is remunerated at 0%, with balances above that threshold earning the Bank Rate. If that threshold is set too high, this measure would incentivise banks to get rid of their liquidity and would push money market rates lower, thus contradicting the BoE’s monetary policy stance. Setting the threshold lower would mean a lower interest rate saving from the BoE but also probably less disruption in GBP money markets. We think this is the option that would likely deliver the best near-term compromise for public finances. Its market impact should be limited at first. The distribution of bank liquidity and TLTRO borrowing is uneven across the eurozone Source: Refinitiv, ING ECB: peering into pandora’s box The European Central Bank’s motivation could be similar to the BoE's. As policy rates rise, the interest banks earn by placing liquidity at the ECB will gradually rise above the rate they are paying on their targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) loans, presenting them with an interest rate gain. If this is the sole problem it is intending to solve, one option would be to retroactively change the TLTRO terms by raising its interest rate. This would be detrimental to the predictability, and so attractiveness of future TLTRO operations, however. With the brunt of TLTRO loans due to expire by the middle of next year, one could also question the need to come up with risky solutions to a problem that will disappear in nine months. The ECB has effectively allowed banks to borrow money at a lower rate than they earn when they place it back at the ECB If on the other hand, the goal is to reduce its interest bill over the longer term, it could borrow one of the two designs described above. A set-up similar to the SNB’s, where a fixed amount of reserves earns the policy rate and the amount in excess earns 0%, would imply that it intends to actively withdraw liquidity. This could be achieved if banks rush to repay TLTRO loans, but this is likely to result in at least a temporary drop in money market rates. To prevent this temporary disruption, the ECB could bridge the period until the next quarterly TLTRO repayment opportunity with ad hoc liquidity draining operations, or simply make the tiering apply on the same date as TLTRO repayment. If this is the option retained by the ECB, the reduction in excess liquidity resulting from early TLTRO repayments, and other liquidity draining operations, would push money market rates higher relative to the ECB deposit rate. Interbank lending rates would be the first area where we expect a reaction as banks move to replace TLTRO funding. In time, we'd also expect greater competition among banks to attract wholesale deposits. Both would push Euribor fixings higher relative to euro short-term rate (Estr) swaps. This should also contribute to pushing Estr fixings above the deposit rate, and closer to the refinancing rate. Draining liquidity would eventually push Estr above the ECB deposit rate Source: Refinitiv, ING   A design similar to the one described above for the BoE, where a fixed amount earns 0% and balances above that threshold earn the policy rate, would guarantee some interest rate saving but wouldn’t provide an incentive for banks to repay TLTRO funds if the threshold is set low enough. If the threshold is set high, then the risk is that 0% becomes the marginal interest rate for many banks and that some countries end up being net lenders, and others net borrowers. The result would be a drop in money market rates in some countries, and a rise in others. TagsSNB ECB BoE   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The GBP/USD Pair Did Not Reach The Nearest Target Level Of 1.2259

US Dollar Dictating Marker Movements (EUR/USD, GBP/USD), BoE Introduce Further Tax Cuts (EUR/GBP)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.09.2022 20:17
Summary: The Euro remains a weak currency and appears to be headed for additional declines. GBP attempted to stabilize and recover the majority of its losses from the flash crash. BoE current monetary policy will probably lead to escalating inflation pressures. EUR/USD at lowest level in more than 20 years The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. According to their most recent research, the German Ifo institute is the latest organization to issue a warning that the nation is likely to experience a recession in the upcoming quarters due to businesses' elevated level of pessimism for those months. The figures released today fell short of forecasts and numbers from the previous month. The Ifo report is the first of many German publications scheduled for this week that will provide a clearer picture of the status of the German economy. Earlier in the session, the US dollar's strength led to the Euro falling to its lowest level versus the US dollar in more than 20 years. The Euro remains a weak currency and appears to be headed for additional declines, while market movements are being dictated by the dollar across the board. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP bearish The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. According to a top economic research agency, the Bank of England must take the initiative and raise UK interest rates significantly if the collapse of the British Pound is to be stopped. The Pound has declined in value relative to every other currency in the globe, with the Pound to Euro exchange rate falling below 1.10. The British pound is currently stabilizing and recovering the majority of its losses from the flash crash. The projections for the British pound have been drastically cut by investment firm Goldman Sachs, indicating that additional losses against the Euro and a revisit of recent lows against the Dollar are possible. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP lost 4.8% The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. This morning's Asian trading, which is often characterized by low transaction volume and little price volatility, saw an unusually steep decline in the British pound of over 4.8%. The big price change may have been influenced by the low transaction volume (reduced liquidity), but the main driver was the UK's new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's announcement of more tax cuts, the largest in 50 years! Looking at the Bank of England's (BoE) current monetary policy, it is clear that the institution wants to raise interest rates to combat the inflation issue; however, a lax fiscal policy, such as energy price caps, which may benefit consumers in the short term, will probably lead to escalating inflation pressures in the medium and long terms once the fiscal support is removed. The local currency's decline, which makes inflation prone to increases, is a further contributor to the issue. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Agressive Rate Hikes By The Fed Did Not Lead To A Deeper Recession

EUR/USD Close To 20-year Lows, IMF Criticizes The UK Government (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.09.2022 19:15
Summary: The Euro is looking down at a 20-year low against the US Dollar. A BoE statement said that it would interfere in the bond markets. Federal Reserve could be obliged to speed up the rate at which it raises interest rates. US Treasury 10-year note exceeds 4% The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. As a result of a mix of Fed and White House rhetoric that puts the brakes on a shift in market conditions, the Euro is looking down a 20-year low against the US Dollar. Overnight, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard reiterated the determination of the Fed to stare down price pressures when he said, “There’s a lot of tightening in the pipeline,” and “we have a serious inflation problem in the US.” Evans and Kashkari, two additional Fed board members, backed up his aggressive remarks. Treasury rates in some areas of the curve have increased to levels unseen in decades as a result of all this talk. For the first time since 2008, the yield on the 10-year note exceeded 4%. Government bond yields in developed markets around the world are escalating. The probable disruption of three Russian gas pipelines has made the situation in the Euro worse and driven up prices. EUR/USD Price Chart British pound to dropped quickly on Wednesday The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The UK government's fiscal stimulus program, which was revealed last Friday and over the weekend, has received harsh criticism from the International Monetary Fund. Huw Pill, the chief economist at the Bank of England, said that the monetary policy should react appropriately to the fiscal policy. The Bank of England's statement that it would interfere in the bond markets caused the British pound to drop quickly, but a recovery later in the day indicated that markets are generally supportive of the central bank's decision to settle the bond markets. The Bank said unexpectedly that it would purchase long-dated UK assets in order to limit their yields. EUR/GBP Price Chart Pound has a strong inverse relationship with risk The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The publication of better-than-expected statistics out of the U.S. overnight caused a decline in global markets, which in turn led investors to wager that the Federal Reserve could be obliged to speed up the rate at which it raises interest rates. Stock markets were affected by expectations of rising rates, which also helped the dollar and put pressure on other weaker currencies like the pound. The Pound has a strong inverse relationship with risk and tends to decline as the world markets decline. The announcement of new orders for durable goods data, which showed a dip of 0.2% in August but was better than the average expectation for a decline of 0.3%, was what first caused the decline in Sterling and other risk-sensitive assets. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
US Dollar May Strengthen As A Result Of The US PCE Update (EUR/USD, USD/CAD) GBP Seeks To Strengthen Against The Euro

US Dollar May Strengthen As A Result Of The US PCE Update (EUR/USD, USD/CAD) GBP Seeks To Strengthen Against The Euro

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.09.2022 19:06
Summary: Consumer confidence figures from the Eurozone decreased by 3.8 points. GBP seeks to continue strengthening against the Euro. Eurozone forecast looks dismal The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The final consumer confidence figures from the Eurozone decreased by 3.8 points to -28.8 in September 2022, which was in line with initial projections and the lowest reading since the series' inception in 1985. The majority of factors, such as householders' appraisals of their past financial situations, outlooks on their future financial situations, plans to make significant purchases, and expectations regarding the state of the economy as a whole, all had a role in the sharp fall. A minor improvement in industrial mood could be fleeting given the future energy issues. The eurozone's forecast for the remaining months of the year is still dismal. The geopolitical tension surrounding the alleged sabotage of Nord Stream has made matters worse, and the eurozone is currently debating its ninth round of penalties as a result. However, restrictions on Russian gas continue to be a divisive matter inside the EU, with the commission advising countries that a combination of measures is needed rather than merely market intervention. The eurozone would have wanted to avoid this additional anxiety as it gets ready for an uncertain winter. EUR/USD Price Chart Markets awaiting German inflation release The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. In spite of easing pressures on UK bond markets and ongoing weakness in the Euro-Dollar exchange rate, the British Pound seeks to continue strengthening against the Euro. The inflation rate in North Rhine Westphalia, the most populated state in Germany, increased by 10.1% year over year in September, marking the highest increase since the early 1950s. This caused a decline in the value of the euro. The information raised concerns that German inflation data, which would be released later in the day, would confirm that the UK's stagflationary crisis is gripping Europe's largest economy as well. Separately, Germany’s network authority said gas use was well above average last week and urged homes and companies to make greater savings to avert a shortage this winter. EUR/GBP Price Chart US PCE update due The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retreats from an extreme reading, the recent rally in USD/CAD appears to be coming to an end after clearing the high of July 2020 (1.3646). The core reading, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, is forecast to increase to 4.7% in August from 4.6% per year in July, and signs of persistent price growth may force the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to maintain its approach to combating inflation as the central bank pursues a restrictive policy. This could cause the US dollar to strengthen as a result of the US PCE update. As a result, the US Dollar may continue to perform better than its Canadian counterpart because the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) show a steeper path for the Fed Funds rate, and USD/CAD may show a bullish trend for the rest of the year because the Bank of Canada (BoC) appears to be on track to implement smaller rate hikes in the upcoming months. USD/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Analysis Of The AUD/JPY Currency Pair Scenarios

RBA Missed Market Expectations With Their Interest Rate Decision

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.10.2022 12:59
Summary: AUD declines in the wake of the RBA interest rate decision. 25bps interest rate hike from the RBA. AUD weaker. RBA 25bps interest rate decision The Australian Dollar fell when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced a 25 basis point increase in interest rates, indicating that the peak in Australian interest rates was approaching. Markets anticipated another 50bp increase, but the action caught them off guard. The RBA stated in a statement that additional interest rate hikes were still necessary to reduce inflation, although economists now believe only one more increase is now expected. The 'dovish' outcome resulted in a weaker Australian Dollar relative to the bulk of G10 currencies. The Pound to Australian Dollar rose by a third of a percent to 1.7480, its highest level since early August. "AUD is a significant underperformer after the RBA hiked 25bp against a consensus for a 50bp move," says Adam Cole, Chief Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets. Effect of interest rate hiking on the AUD The cash rate has now increased six times in a row by the RBA, reaching 2.60%, which Governor Philip Lowe described as a "substantial" rate of tightening. The Australian Dollar may no longer receive rate support as a result of the RBA's rate hike cycle, but one expert claims that the prognosis for the currency is actually positive. According to ANZ, in order to guarantee that inflation does reach its goal level, the cash rate will need to increase to obviously restrictive territory above 3%. "The slower pace of rate hikes now points to the tightening cycle extending into 2023," says Plank. Plank observes that the 25bp decision and overall tone of the statement have significantly reduced market expectations for future interest rate increases. In the wake of the decision, three-year ACGB futures are trading at an implied yield of 3.3%, which is over 40 bps lower than Monday's closing. Sources: investing.com, poundsterlinglive.com
USD Falls 3.3% From Wednesday's High (EUR/USD), UK Chancellor Moves Up Fiscal Plan (EUR/GBP), RBA Missed Market Expectations (GBP/AUD)

USD Falls 3.3% From Wednesday's High (EUR/USD), UK Chancellor Moves Up Fiscal Plan (EUR/GBP), RBA Missed Market Expectations (GBP/AUD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.10.2022 20:40
Summary: The US dollar has fallen by as much as 3.3%. GBP supported in the wake of Kwarteng plans to move up the publishing of his fiscal plan. RBA interest rate announcement. Investors wonder if the USD has peaked The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Since the high of last Wednesday, the US dollar has fallen by as much as 3.3%, and many are wondering if the USD has peaked. Given how severely overbought the dollar had been, this retreat appears to be a trend correction without any indication of anything bigger. Price is getting close to some important support, though, and how it performs around those levels will be crucial for deciding on a short-term course of action. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP supported on Tuesday In an effort to restore market confidence, Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng announced he was moving up the publishing of his fiscal plan, which gave the British Pound another lift. Originally slated for distribution on November 23, the plan will instead be given later this month, according to a story published late Monday. Importantly, a complete set of estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility will be included with the proposal (OBR). The developments ensured a late-session rise in the pound sterling on Monday, resulting in a 1.15% increase in the pound's value relative to the euro. The improvements coincide with the pound's larger resurgence as markets restore their faith in UK assets after a turbulent time. EUR/GBP Price Chart RBA weaker in the wake of interest rate announcement The Australian Dollar fell when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced a 25 basis point increase in interest rates, indicating that the peak in Australian interest rates was approaching. Markets anticipated another 50bp increase, but the action caught them off guard. The RBA stated in a statement that additional interest rate hikes were still necessary to reduce inflation, although economists now believe only one more increase is now expected. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
U.S Dollar Remains Supported (EUR/USD), High Inflation Could Drive UK Economy Into A Recession (EUR/GBP, AUD/GBP)

U.S Dollar Remains Supported (EUR/USD), High Inflation Could Drive UK Economy Into A Recession (EUR/GBP, AUD/GBP)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.10.2022 18:55
Summary: Ongoing devaluation of other currencies by the U.S. Dollar. Decreased predictions for UK economic growth. Australia's trade surplus decreased in August despite an increase in imports. U.S Dollar remains in high demand The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, the ongoing devaluation of other currencies by the U.S. Dollar consumed more than $500BN of official reserves in the second quarter, and it can be inferred reasonably from this that the reserve cost of the Dollar rally exceeded $1 trillion in September. The dollar was again in demand throughout the trading afternoon on Wednesday, but noticeably more so after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI for September tended to portray the key sector of the American economy as being more resilient than forecasts had predicted. EUR/USD Price Chart Predictions for UK economy looks poor The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. According to economists, a worse recession would result in larger losses for the pound. They are also decreasing their predictions for UK economic growth. Economic experts predict that high inflation will cause the UK economy to enter a recession, but rising interest rates due to external reasons and the market's response to the "mini budget" will widen the extent of the slump. "The cost of living crisis will be exacerbated by a cost of borrowing crisis," explains Capital Economics in a new note in which they say they now expect a deeper recession than previously forecast. EUR/GBP Price Chart Australian Trade Surplus decreased Another data release confirming Australia's continued trade surplus helped the Australian dollar gain strength, but analysts warn that a peak in commodity prices and challenges to the global economy raise the possibility of underperformance. According to the ABS, Australia's trade surplus decreased in August despite an increase in imports. A positive trade surplus suggests that a nation is generating more foreign currency than it is spending, which provides a fundamental source of support for a currency. Australia's trade surplus has increased over the past few months as the value of its commodities exports has soared and amid a fall in demand for imports brought on by the Covid-induced economic slowdown. However, the trade surplus is shrinking due to indications that commodity prices have peaked, a continued post-covid recovery, the increase in the price of other significant imports, and these factors together. AUD/GBP Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Agressive Rate Hikes By The Fed Did Not Lead To A Deeper Recession

Eurozone Confidence Declining (EUR/USD), GBP Under Pressure (EUR/GBP)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.10.2022 16:38
Summary: The Euro continues its battle with the US Dollar. UK's trillion-pound debt markets are buckling under the weight of further Bank of England interventions. Sterling found support early in the new week against the CAD. Euro on the decline as recession fears persist The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Euro's battle with the dollar continued into the new week as a risk-off mindset and increasing yields put the dollar in the lead. We witnessed a spike in geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine as a result of a number of missile attacks that Russian President Vladimir Putin said were in response for the bombing of a bridge that connects Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. As recession fears persist, confidence in the Eurozone keeps declining. Another 75bp increase from the European Central Bank (ECB) is still anticipated later this month, which is necessary given the most recent double-digit inflation reading. Regarding the rate hike path required to control inflation, US Fed policymakers last week seemed to be singing from the same hymn book. Lael Brainard and Charles Evans, two well-known doves, yesterday broke with the rhetoric and used a tad more dovish language. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP is under pressure The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The British pound is under pressure amid indications that the UK's trillion-pound debt markets are buckling under the weight of further Bank of England interventions. The Bank of England said on Tuesday that index-linked gilts will now be a part of its expanded gilt purchasing program. Given that UK RPI inflation was 12.3% in August, these gilts (UK government bonds) are understandably becoming more expensive for the government. But considering that the new administration decided to spend a lot of money on subsidizing family energy costs while simultaneously lowering taxes, the UK's bond market has suffered more than others. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP supported against the CAD The rise in the Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate that began in the month of October has since experienced a corrective decline, but Sterling found support early in the new week just above the 1.51 handle and may now be expected to temporarily consolidate its recovery. If Sterling continues to accept the most recent developments in the UK government bond market, where the Bank of England (BoE) has been providing emergency liquidity to address issues related with some pension funds, it may find more support this week around the latter level. GBP/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Chart of the Week - Gold Miners vs Energy Producers - 20.04.2022

German CPI Inflation Data Met The Markets Expectations

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.10.2022 08:15
Summary: German CPY (YoY) CPI inflation data met market expectations. Looming european energy crisis. Initial market reactions. German CPI inflation data comes in at 10% Preliminary estimates showed that in September 2022, Germany's consumer price inflation spiked to 10 percent year-over-year, the highest level ever and significantly more than the 9.4 percent market projection. Following a worsening energy crisis in the biggest economy in Europe and ongoing supply chain disruptions, consumer prices have been rising. The German CPI inflation data was forecasted at 10% and came in at 10%, in addition the German CPI (MoM) data also met market expectations and remained equal to the previous months at 1.9%, this indicates that the largest European economy has not worsened despite fears. With the war in the Ukraine continuing, and the sanctions placed on Russia by the European Union, it is no secret that the European economies are facing problems, driven by a looming energy crisis. With winter approaching and a shortage of gas forecasted, prices have been rising. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate hawkish interest rate hiking cycle is showing no signs of slowing down, Inflation data from Europe's largest economy tends to be a clear indication of the performance of the rest of the European Economies. In the wake of the previous German CPI inflation data release, separate statistics revealed that previously, consumer and business expectations for greater inflation and a worsening financial situation caused the euro zone's economic mood to decline significantly and more than anticipated. The effect of the CPI Inflation Data on the Markets As CPI inflation continues to rise, consumer confidence continues to fall, the actual figures set up a strong case for the European Central Bank to continue on their interest rate hiking cycle path. The initial effect of the released data caused the EUR/USD to strengthen slightly, the EUR/GBP had the same effect, strengthening as the German Inflation rate remained high, yet stable. Sources: investing.com, reuters.com, dailyfx.com
Both The US CPI & Core CPI Inflation Beat Market’s Forecasted Figures

Both The US CPI & Core CPI Inflation Beat Market’s Forecasted Figures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.10.2022 15:19
Summary: US CPI inflation beat market expectations. US Core CPI inflation beat market expectations. Initial market reaction. US CPI & Core CPI Inflation beat market expectations After breaking out last week, the US dollar is maintaining its recent highs. The primary US catalyst for this week is the release of CPI data today. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the CPI is anticipated to have risen by 8.1% in September compared to the same month a year prior, which is only slightly less than the 8.3% annual increase seen in August. The actual US CPI inflation (YoY) came in at 8.2%, beating market expectations. For the White House and legislative Democrats, the continued high inflation has been a major political concern, overshadowing the coronavirus pandemic's quick recovery and the creation of millions of jobs since Joe Biden took office. The Core CPI is anticipated to rise for a second consecutive month, with the rate rising to 6.5% in September from 6.3% in August. Additionally, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a higher path for US interest rates, which could fuel anticipation for another 75bp Fed rate hike. The actual US Core CPI inflation (MoM) came in at 6.6%, also beating market expectations. Effect on the markets The market will probably jerk in either direction after the September CPI report is released. The bar remains very high to change the perception surrounding a 75 basis point rate hike from the FOMC in November, despite the possibility of volatility across asset classes. The Federal Reserve may face pressure to maintain its approach to battling inflation if the core CPI increases once again, according to the minutes from the September meeting that revealed “many participants emphasized that the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action.” The initial reaction from the EUR/USD was bearish, USD/JPY was bullish as the dollar strengthened in the wake of the news, the S&P500 also jumped and Bitcoin remained on a downward trend. Sources: investing.com, financialtimes.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
Federal Reserve Remains Hawkish (EUR/USD), Political Uncertainty In Westminster Circus (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD)

Federal Reserve Remains Hawkish (EUR/USD), Political Uncertainty In Westminster Circus (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.10.2022 20:24
Summary: Fedspeak is back in the spotlight this week. EUR/GBP reached one-month highs last week. Fedspeak is back in the spotlight after strong CPI inflation The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. As markets process the strong CPI number from last week, Fedspeak is back in the spotlight this week. Given the lack of significant new data this week, market players will probably give Fed speech and corporate earnings more weight. Recent Federal Reserve speakers have kept up the "hawkish drum," with the majority seeing the lack of inflation progress as justification for continuing with aggressive rate hikes. Since recent remarks suggest the Fed is seeking some pain in both housing and employment in order to reduce inflation, the persistent tightness in the domestic labor market continues to be a talking topic for Federal Reserve officials. Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments at Jackson Hole, when Powell threw a warning shot across the financial markets' bow, abruptly shifted the atmosphere surrounding a soft landing. Market investors are still firm in their desire to price in a Fed policy reversal, but with inflation where it is, such a turnabout for the central bank is all but unthinkable. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP reached one month highs The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The exchange rate between the pound and the euro reached one-month highs last week, but it may now find it difficult to rise much further in the days to come and even be at risk of new selling as the Westminster Circus once again devolves into the type of farce most typical of one of those vintage Carry On movies. With political instability and uncertainty once again at the top of the agenda, the pound surged strongly last week amid rumors that HM Treasury would withdraw some of the spending commitments made in the late-September budget. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/USD recovered slightly The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Pound to Dollar exchange rate has recently recovered significantly, but it may take a setback for the Dollar to advance further this week, in part because Sterling faces dangers related to the possibility of another Prime Minister in the Banana Republic of Westminster being booted from power. The news that HM Treasury would be able to postpone some of the spending promises made public in the late-September budget statement helped the value of the pound last week. However, political instability and uncertainty are once again at the forefront of this week's events. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Saxo Bank And JP Morgan's Negative Views On The Outlook For British Economic Growth

ECB Seems To Have Limited Options (EUR/USD), Concerns In UK Bond Market (EUR/GBP), JPY Drops To 1990 Lows (USD/JPY)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 18.10.2022 15:31
Summary: Markets are betting on a 90% chance that ECB will enforce another 75bp hike. GBP's impressive run came to an abrupt end. JPY dropped to lows last seen in August 1990. ECB seems limited in their options The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The European Central Bank (ECB)'s are limited in their options in light of the most recent CPI reading. The ECB's case for continuing to raise rates in pursuit of its 2% target may be strengthened by today's stronger ZEW statistics. The concern is that by doing this, the central bank could risk sending the economy back into a recession, which would be indicated by the dropping ZEW current conditions print. On the other hand, if the central bank does nothing, the euro may lose further ground to the dollar. The final CPI report on Wednesday and today's data print will be crucial as the ECB begins its pre-meeting blackout period on Thursday. As the central bank works to achieve its 2% target, markets are putting in a 90% chance that there will be another 75bp increase at the meeting next week. We will hear from ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel later in the day. She is anticipated to maintain the rhetoric of rate increases despite the fragility of the Eurozone economies. EUR/USD Price Chart Concerns in UK bond markets The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for this currency pair. Following some fresh concern in the UK bond markets on Tuesday, the British Pound's impressive run came to an abrupt end. Following the Bank of England's forced denial that it would further delay its program of quantitative tightening, UK gilts declined and the yield they offered increased. After the recent instability in the bond market, The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that the Bank was prepared to postpone the program. After reaching a high of 1.1576 earlier in the day, the exchange rate between the British pound and the euro dropped to 1.1490. This brings the rates for bank transfers to around 1.1260 and the prices provided by payment specialists to around 1.1450. EUR/GBP Price Chart JPY continues to lose against the USD The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Earlier in the session, the Japanese Yen dropped to lows last seen in August 1990 as it continues to lose value against the US dollar. Little has changed for the Yen as Japanese authorities appear ready to allow the currency to continue to decline by controlling bond yields. The yield on 10-year JGBs is restricted to 0.25%. In contrast, as the Fed keeps raising interest rates, US Treasury yields continue to trade at or close to multi-year highs. The benchmark 10-year UST is quoted with a yield of 4.00%, which is approximately 375 basis points higher than the comparable JGB. The rate-sensitive 2-year UST trades with a yield of about 4.45%. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The GBP/USD Pair Did Not Reach The Nearest Target Level Of 1.2259

GBP CPI Inflation (YoY) Came In Hotter Than Expectations

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 19.10.2022 08:25
Summary: GBP September 2022 YoY inflation, beat market expectations. Affect on the GBP. GBP CPI Inflation The market has predicted a CPI YoY inflation figure of 10%, the actual data came in at 10.1%, which was hotter than expected by the market. The inflation reading is likely to set off expectations on the future interest rate hiking path of the Bank of England (BoE). The higher than expected inflation reading is likely to set investor confidence in the direction of a continuing hawkish BoE interest rate hiking cycle, causing investor confidence in the GBP to increase and therefore strengthening the pound sterling currency. Following some fresh concern in the UK bond markets on Tuesday, the British Pound's impressive run came to an abrupt end. Following the Bank of England's forced denial that it would further delay its program of quantitative tightening, UK gilts declined and the yield they offered increased.  This is the procedure through which it sells the gilts it acquired as part of its quantitative easing strategy back to the market. A crucial element of the Bank's strategy for normalizing monetary policy as it battles inflation is quantitative tightening. After the recent instability in the bond market, The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that the Bank was prepared to postpone the program. Effect of the CPI reading on the GBP It is no secret that the pound sterling has had a tough year on the forex markets. The near-term outlook for the pound has significantly improved, according to foreign exchange strategists at BMO Capital, and more gains are possible if the UK leadership is changed in the next two weeks. The Kwarteng catastrophic "mini-budget" in September, which offered the largest tax cuts in 50 years at a time when the U.K. economy is already experiencing significant inflation, is blamed by the government for the turmoil the pound sterling is currently experiencing. The Bank of England had to step in to prevent the collapse of a significant portion of the U.K. pension system after Kwarteng's actions drove the pound to an all-time low against the dollar and set off a sell-off in government bonds. The initial market reaction showed a weakening in the GBP/USD currency pair, and a strengthening in the EUR/GBP currency pair as investors weigh GBP prospects. Sources: poundsterlinglive.com, investing.com
TEST

Dow Jones Increased Overnight, GBP Could Rally If UK Leadership Changed

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.10.2022 11:27
Summary: Dow Jones futures all increased overnight as investors focused on Netflix (NFLX). The near-term outlook for the pound has significantly improved. Dow Jones Index Rally The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones futures all increased overnight as investors focused on Netflix (NFLX) subscriber growth and anticipated Tesla earnings. The effort at a stock market rally extended advances on Tuesday, but the session ended well below highs. Although the market rise is still going strong, nothing yet has been proven. Investors should exercise caution and pay great attention. In Q3, Netflix's subscriber growth was substantially stronger than anticipated, and the leader in streaming TV is optimistic about Q4 subscribers. Earnings also exceeded expectations. The rise in Netflix's shares suggested a breakout. Overnight, Roku (ROKU) and Disney (DIS) both increased. In comparison to fair value, Dow Jones futures gained 0.6%, with DIS stock contributing a slight gain. Futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.7%. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%. United Airlines and NFLX stock both make up the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. DJI Price Chart GBP could rally in the wake of UK leadership change The near-term outlook for the pound has significantly improved, according to foreign exchange strategists at BMO Capital, and more gains are possible if the UK leadership is changed in the next two weeks. They claim that such a development is very plausible. The call follows the dramatic about-face in UK fiscal policy that newly-installed Chancellor Jeremy Hunt revealed. In order to fully restore market confidence in the UK government and finances, Hunt undid all of his predecessor's tax cuts. This was followed by a decline in UK gilt yields and a rise in the value of the pound. The reversal was unavoidable given that the world markets recoiled at the generosity of the new prime minister Liz Truss' economic plans, which called for large tax cuts that would be paid for by borrowing.
ECB Likely To Remain Hawkish (EUR/USD), U.K CPI Inflation Returns To Double Digits (EUR/GBP), BoJ Unbothered By Weak Yen (USD/JPY)

ECB Likely To Remain Hawkish (EUR/USD), U.K CPI Inflation Returns To Double Digits (EUR/GBP), BoJ Unbothered By Weak Yen (USD/JPY)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.10.2022 18:54
Summary: Eurozone CPI inflation missed double digits. UK inflation increased from 9.9% to 10.1%. USD/JPY has positive carry. Eurozone inflation beat market expectations The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The data, which narrowly avoided the 10% inflation mark as compared to September of last year, would undoubtedly support the recent hawkish stance taken by senior ECB members. Centeno and Visco, two ECB members, will get the chance to comment on the most recent inflation data later today as ECB talk is expected to slow down before the required blackout period prior to Thursday's rate decision. There is a new significant market driver in town as the US is currently in earnings season. This will highlight a variety of subjective factors because what US company executives say can start to shape expectations for future quarters' results. The key question at this time is how the sudden and sharp spike in rates has affected businesses. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP limped temporarily The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. After Office for National Statistics data indicated that inflation increased more than anticipated in September, the Pound Sterling temporarily limped against the Dollar and the Euro. However, this outcome does little to deter the Bank of England (BoE) from raising interest rates aggressively in November. In September, UK inflation increased from 9.9% to 10.1%, defying the expectation of economists who had expected the annual rate of price growth to exceed 10% for the previous month. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/JPY remains positive The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The carry is still positive for the USD/JPY currency pair, and it will continue to be so as long as US interest rates are still rising and Japanese monetary policy is as it is. A weak Yen isn't all that awful for Japan, and it doesn't seem to be causing much concern at the central bank, according to BoJ Governor Kuroda. However, since the intervention was requested by the Ministry of Finance late last month, the same cannot be stated there. There is a new significant market driver in town as the US is currently in earnings season. This will highlight a variety of subjective factors because what US company executives say can start to shape expectations for future quarters' results. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Fed Needed To Get Rates Above 5% Sooner Rather Than Later

Rising Fed Fund Rates Offer US Dollar Support (EUR/USD), UK Retail Sales Data Came In Hotter Than Expected (EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.10.2022 19:30
Summary: Rising Fed funds rate estimates have benefited the dollar. U.K retail sales data. JPY rallied on Friday. USD supported by hawkish fed The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Throughout the past week, the EUR/USD pair has struggled to find any definitive direction, and this morning was no exception. As bulls and bears continue their conflict, the pair has stayed largely range bound because next week will bring a number of important data events. Since last week's US CPI reading, the pair had experienced a rally, but this week's return of the dollar bulls has stopped any effort at an upward rise. Rising Fed funds rate estimates have benefited the dollar, with markets now projecting a peak rate of roughly 5%, up from 4.75% last week. As a result of this as well as rising Treasury yields, investors have continued to view the dollar as their favorite haven, keeping it strong. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP struggles as UK Retail Data misses market expectations The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. After Office for National Statistics (ONS) statistics revealed that UK retail sales collapsed in September, the pound fell into the week's final session, effectively wiping out more than two years of gains made since the first coronavirus-inspired closure of the economy in 2020. When measured by the number of products purchased, retail expenditure declined by 1.4% in September. This was a far worse decline than the -0.5% consensus estimate and came along with a downward revision to the ONS estimate for August sales growth, which was restated as -1.7%. EUR/GBP Price Chart JPY rally supporting GBP The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. A stunning Japanese Yen surge that seemed to be the catalyst for a market-wide decline in Dollar exchange rates, which was then followed by rumors of direct involvement from the Tokyo government and Bank of Japan (BoJ). The Yen appreciated by over five huge figures versus the dollar, which had previously run roughshod over all other currencies, while the Pound Sterling, which had been mired in the red, saw a notable rally against it late on Friday. GBP/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Markets Still Hope That The Fed May Consider Softer Decision

ECB Expected To Raise Interest Rates By 75bps On Thursday (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), UK & US Have Conflicting Economic Outlooks (GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.10.2022 18:55
Summary: The ECB interest rate decision is unlikely to have much impact on the Euro. The markets Reaction to the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday, could be positive for the GBP. Sterling increased significantly from the market's opening. Global Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index decreased The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. According to the 'flash' figure, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index decreased from 48.1 in September to 47.1 in October. The indicator indicated that business activity in the eurozone has fallen for a fourth time in a row. The most recent result was the lowest since April 2013 when pandemic numbers were excluded. A 75bp increase is already anticipated by the market for the meeting on Thursday, although it is unlikely to have much of an impact on the euro. The Eurozone's generally dismal outlook is unlikely to change as today's data strengthen recessionary fears. It is highly challenging to argue for a halt in rate increases as long as inflation stays high, with ECB Chief Economist Phillip Lane saying the bank views the neutral rate as being just above the 1-2% range. If Lane is right, more rate increases would be coming for the zone, which theoretically might hasten a recession. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP supported by Boris Johnson being turned away from PM The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Pound to Euro exchange rate started the new week on a positive note, but it might find it difficult to maintain Monday's gains far beyond the 1.15 level unless this Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) decision causes the market to turn even further away from the euro. On Monday, the pound gained significantly from the opening price after a faction of the ruling Conservative Party was successful in preventing former Prime Minister Boris Johnson from taking part in the most recent process for choosing a new Prime Minister. The market's reaction to the European Central Bank's interest rate decision on Thursday, which is widely anticipated to increase its benchmark interest rate by three quarters of a percentage point for a second consecutive time, will likely have a significant impact on the Pound's performance this week. EUR/GBP Price Chart UK & US contrasting economic outlook The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The pound to dollar exchange rate has experienced a recent surge and may increase further in the near future, but it runs the risk of falling as the week progresses and attention shifts back to the increasingly contrasting economic outlooks of the UK and the US. After some members of the governing Conservative Party were successful in preventing former Prime Minister Boris Johnson from taking part in the most recent selection process for the position of Prime Minister, sterling increased significantly from the market's opening, including versus the dollar. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
In The Coming Days Will Be The Final Consolidation Of Bitcoin

Chinese Renminbi Hits Lowest Level In 15 Years, Transfer Of UK PM Status, EU Stocks Supported By Potentially Dovish Fed, Bitcoin Forecast

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.10.2022 13:00
Summary: The value of China's currency has decreased 13% so far this year.  U.S. economy shrank for a fourth consecutive month.   Chancellor Rishi Sunak was named the next prime minister. Bitcoins new price objective set at $30,000. The Renminbi is crashing The value of the Chinese yuan against the dollar has fallen to its lowest level since 2007 as worries over President Xi Jinping's choice of a more hardline leadership team and the weakening economy moved from stock markets to currency markets. A growing interest rate disparity with the US has already hurt the renminbi this year; on Tuesday, it dropped as much as 0.6% to Rmb7.3084 per dollar. The People's Bank of China lowered the midpoint of the currency's trading band to its lowest level since the world financial crisis, which caused the decline.  The value of China's currency has decreased 13% so far this year. The decline on Tuesday came after a sell-off in Chinese stocks that affected markets around the world this week, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises index falling more than 7% on Monday and the Nasdaq Golden Dragons index of major technology stocks falling more than 14%. China’s renminbi has hit its weakest level against the dollar since 2007 following concerns over President Xi Jinping’s appointment of a harder line leadership team and a struggling economy https://t.co/F96TYsSrcE pic.twitter.com/8niDscsIu5 — Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 25, 2022 Rishi Sunak takes over from Truss This week saw a solid start for the pound, but it was unable to continue its upward trend when former chancellor Rishi Sunak was named the next prime minister-designate after the Conservative Party leadership contest, which will have a major impact on the pound and the UK economy going forward. After former Prime Minister Boris Johnson withdrew from the race for the position of Prime Minister, leaving former Chancellor Rishi Sunak on course for a coronation that is expected to produce the UK's fifth Prime Minister in the past six years on Tuesday, sterling increased against most major currencies to start the new week.  The Pound, however, quickly lost its early gains as newly-elected Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warned of impending economic hardship and difficult choices involving the public finances in a speech to parliament.  Follow the latest developments as Rishi Sunak takes over from Liz Truss as UK prime minister https://t.co/pEjylJrgRO — Bloomberg (@business) October 25, 2022 EU Stocks supported by potentially dovish fed While anxiety over China's economy continued to weigh on Asian markets, European stocks climbed in early trade on Tuesday as investors took heart from indications that the U.S. Federal Reserve could scale back its rate increases. Data released on Monday revealed that the U.S. economy shrank for a fourth consecutive month. This suggests that the Fed's rate hikes have weakened the economy, which in turn has fueled optimism that the central bank may start to moderate the pace of the increases.  The projected Fed rate peak has decreased slightly from over 5% early last week to around 4.93%. The European stock market's mood was also helped by certain profit results that exceeded forecasts, with Swiss bank UBS (UBSG.S) among those that did so. However, the biggest bank in Europe, HSBC, announced a 42% decline in third-quarter profit, which caused a 4% decline in its share price (.HSBA.L). European stocks up as investors see signs Fed could slow rate rises https://t.co/a5VwuwKWFZ pic.twitter.com/ONhjztqvLs — Reuters (@Reuters) October 25, 2022 Bitcoin Forecast revised upwards to $30,000 In the coming month, Bitcoin "will break out dramatically," with a price objective of $30,000.  Michal van de Poppe, the founder and CEO of the trading company Eight, made that most recent forecast. On October 25, Van de Poppe tweeted his support for the analysts who are predicting a rise in the price of bitcoin. BTC/USD is now characterized by a notable lack of volatility, but there are growing indications that the sideways trend is about to undergo a significant change.  Popular analyst TechDev and others have confirmed that Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands versus the Nasdaq are the tightest in history, which all but guarantees an explosive move to come. “Market looking good for a last leg up. Higher highs and higher lows on ltf and demand being moved up,” he tweeted.   Analyst puts Bitcoin price at $30K next month with breakout due - https://t.co/IKtVBdXcef — Investing.com News (@newsinvesting) October 25, 2022 Sources: twitter.com, cointelegraph.com, reuters.com, ft.com, investing.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Saxo Bank And JP Morgan's Negative Views On The Outlook For British Economic Growth

ECB Expected To Raise Interest Rates By 75bps (EUR/USD), Rishi Sunak Becomes Next U.K Prime Minister (GBP/AUD, EUR/GBP)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.10.2022 18:44
Summary: The European Central Bank is predicted to boost rates by 75 basis points. Rishi Sunak warns of a difficult economic outlook ahead. USD retreated on Tuesday The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. In order to control the high inflation that was shown to be 9.9% year-over-year last week, the European Central Bank is predicted to boost rates by 75 basis points. A channel that dates back to February is putting a major barrier in the way of the EUR/USD. Since its creation, it has proven to be a very trustworthy structure, and until it is no longer useful, it will be the major reference. After the dollar reached its peak, equities appear to have bottomed out on the basis of CPI, and now bonds appear to have reached the end of their capitulation phase. This should temporarily deflate the dollar and place some of its energy into other assets. Since it is just being used as a recovery trade, there is a chance that it could collapse suddenly. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP lost early gains in wake of new prime minster The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. This week saw a solid start for the pound, but it was unable to continue its upward trend when former chancellor Rishi Sunak was named the next prime minister-designate after the Conservative Party leadership contest, which will have a major impact on the pound and the UK economy going forward. After former Prime Minister Boris Johnson withdrew from the race for the position of Prime Minister, leaving former Chancellor Rishi Sunak on course for a coronation that is expected to produce the UK's fifth Prime Minister in the past six years on Tuesday, sterling increased against most major currencies to start the new week. The Pound, however, quickly lost its early gains as newly-elected Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warned of impending economic hardship and difficult choices involving the public finances in a speech to parliament. The S&P Global PMI surveys that indicated a deepening recession in the UK's manufacturing and services sectors in October followed closely behind all of this. EUR/GBP Price Chart Tuesdays market was favorable for riskier assets A thicket of technical resistances that could keep Sterling contained below roughly the 1.8000 level in the coming days has slowed the recovery from the post-referendum lows plumbed in late September, despite the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate remaining close to six-month highs in recent trade. Tuesday's market was favorable for riskier assets, as sterling outperformed all other major currencies. However, the Pound to Australian Dollar rate was unable to move through a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.7962 on the charts and its 100-week moving average at 1.8047. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The EUR/GBP Pair Is Displaying A Sideways Auction Profile

ECB Interest Rate Decision Due Tomorrow (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), BoC Cash Rate Boost Missed Market Expectations (GBP/CAD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.10.2022 18:00
Summary: The euro has been steadily strengthening against the dollar over the past few weeks. The Pound has recovered from all of its post-budget losses. Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate rose to a four-month high. EUR/USD back above parity The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The euro has been steadily strengthening against the dollar over the past few weeks as dovish wagers against the Fed have increased, supported by weaker natural gas prices and U.S. economic statistics. The ECB meeting tomorrow, when they will release their interest rate, will be the main event for the EUR this week. Although a 75 bps rate hike is presently priced in by the financial markets with about 93% certainty, the post-announcement press conference will be crucial for determining the short-term directional bias. Any hawkish slant that may be there in the ruling could put parity to another test. The euro increased by more than 5.3% from its yearly low, and a breach of the 2022 downtrend now raises the possibility of a greater rise in the coming days. However, the advance is now getting close to the first significant resistance barrier, which will be the first true test of the bulls' tenacity in this rebound from multi-decade lows. Prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate announcement, these updated objectives and invalidation levels are what matter on the technical price charts for the EUR/USD. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound sterling slightly recovered The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. The Pound has recovered from all of its post-budget losses, but some strategists believe it could still fall apart before the year is out. They have advised clients to sell Sterling against the Dollar after it rises back above 1.15 because there is potential for it to drop as low as 1.08 in the coming months. Following the parliamentary installation of former chancellor Rishi Sunak as prime minister, which ended the Conservative Party's leadership election, and as risk appetite seemed to increase on global markets, the pound gained versus a number of other currencies throughout the first half of the week. The problem for the pound is that none of this does anything to change the bleak picture for the UK economy, and risk appetite would quickly decline if the Fed confirmed next Wednesday that its hawkish policy position will not change. EUR/GBP Price Chart BoC boosted cash rate The Bank of Canada (BoC) boosted its cash rate less than economists and markets had anticipated for October, but it nonetheless issued a warning that additional interest rate hikes are likely in the months ahead. As a result, the Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate rose to a four-month high. In light of downgrades from prior expectations of 3.5% and 1.75%, respectively, the BoC revised its forecasts for Canadian GDP growth, which is now estimated to come in around 3.25% this year before slipping below 1% next year. The projection for 2024 remained at 2%. The annual consumer price index inflation rate is anticipated to decline back to 3% by the end of next year before reverting to the 2% objective by the end of 2024, according to the BoC's inflation estimates, which have remained virtually unaltered. GBP/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The EUR/USD Pair Maintains The Bullish Sentiment

ECB Interest Rate Decision Met Market Expectations At 75 Bps

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.10.2022 14:31
Summary: Markets expected a 75bps increase from the ECB. ECB continues to follow hawkish rhetoric. Initial effect of the decision on the market. ECB interest rate decision re-instils market confidence The ECB decision was released today, and another 75bps increase was anticipated. The widely anticipated increase in the ECB's once-negative deposit rate to 1.25% on Thursday may favor the Euro at the expense of the Pound, the Dollar, and other currencies, according to some analysts. Although these statements and the ECB's other recent interest rate increases have not directly benefited the Euro, policymakers have emphasized in recent appearances that interest rates will need to rise further in the months ahead as double-digit inflation rates become more prevalent in the Eurozone. The ECB met market expectations by rising their interest rates by 75 basis points to 2.00% on Thursday. The ECB have reiterated their intentions to gain control over the soaring inflation rate. Effect of the decision on the market In recent trade, the Pound to Euro exchange rate defied gravity and reached levels close to one month highs. However, this week's recovery will be difficult unless the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday convinces the market to abandon its recently increased appetite for the single currency. They cited the UK economy's worsening outlook and risks related to Bank of England (BoE) interest rate policy, despite the fact that ECB policy is also relevant and the bank's interest rate guidance, balance sheet, and prospects for the Eurozone's economy will be more crucial for the pound sterling ahead of the weekend. The EUR/USD pair has already risen over parity and the downtrend from 2022, doing so with a respectable rally. The initial market reaction in the wake of the release of the ECB interest rate decision showed the EUR/USD strengthening and continuing the bullish market sentiment, the EUR/GBP weakened slightly followed by signs of strengthening, The FTSE 100 showed signs of declining. Sources: poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Representatives Of The ECB Claim That By The End Of 2023, Inflation Should Have Reached The Target Level

USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3) Beat The Markets Expectations by 0.2%

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.10.2022 14:38
Summary: Markets expected a 2.4% US Q3 GDP. Will the Fed continue its hawkish rhetoric? Market reactions in the wake of the GDP figure. US GDP hit its first positive figure in two quarters The market is expecting US GDP in the third quarter to rise from -0.6% (September release) to 2.4% in the October release. This is the first positive number in two quarters. The actual US Q3 GDP data came in at 2.6%, beating market expectations by 0.2%. The US GDP has beaten the 2.4% GDP value that was forecasted, thus the USD should be supported by this figure. With GDP being the broadest indicator of the economy and the primary indicator of the economy’s health, the US Dollar would benefit from beating the forecasted figure. The market will learn how recent rate hikes have affected the US economy in the third quarter from today's advanced look at US Q3 GDP. Any miss or beat of estimates will change the Fed's narrative regarding future rate hikes. A dismal Meta Platforms forecast is expected to weigh heavily on the tech-heavy Nasdaq as U.S. equities began in a mixed manner on Thursday, ahead of earnings from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) and the first estimate of third-quarter GDP domestic product. Effect on the markets The figures on weekly unemployment claims are also due at the same time and are anticipated to increase slightly from last week as the labor market begins to experience pressure. Hence, the initial market reaction in the wake of the release of the US GDP data is likely to be as a result of the combination of information being released by the United States on Thursday. A GDP figure that beats market expectations is bullish for the currency in question.The initial market reaction showed the movement of the EUR/USD decline, the NASDAQ rose slightly and GBP/USD currency pair weakened as the USD showed signs of strengthening. Sources: investing.com, dailyfx.com,
The Agressive Rate Hikes By The Fed Did Not Lead To A Deeper Recession

European Economy Likely To Be Under Pressure In The Wake Of ECB’s Interest Rate Decision (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), CAD Suffered Losses This Week (GBP/CAD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.10.2022 17:14
Summary: Fed representative speaks regarding the hazards of potential overtightening. EUR/GBP rose in the wake of ECB interest rate decision. On Thursday, the Canadian Dollar was still the second-best performing currency. European economy likely to experience pressure The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The European economy will experience extra pressure from the ECB's interest rate decisions once they rise above this point because firms and families are already feeling the effects of the excessive increases in energy prices. The dollar index (DXY) also formed a double top as a result of comments made by Mary Daly of the Fed regarding the hazards of potential overtightening and the likely transition from 75 bps raises to 50 or 25 boosts in the future. As a result, the index is currently trading approximately 3.5% lower. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP rose in the wake of ECB interest rate decision The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Thursday saw a rise in the exchange rate between the pound and the euro as the European Central Bank (ECB) announced another unusually substantial increase in interest rates and warned that the changing monetary policy settings could soon start to hurt the Eurozone economy. After the ECB increased all of its key interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point for the second time in a row and issued a warning that additional hikes would still be required in the months to come, the euro moved lower against other major peers, notably the pound. EUR/USD Price Chart CAD suffered significant losses Following the Bank of Canada (BoC) decision to decrease the rate at which it raises interest rates in October, which stunned the market and caused many forecasters to reevaluate their prognosis for the Loonie, the Canadian Dollar fell behind other major currencies during the following week. On Thursday, the Canadian Dollar was still the second-best performing currency in the G10 group for the year, but it had suffered significant losses this week against all other currencies save the U.S. Dollar as a result of Wednesday's interest rate decision. GBP/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The Euro May Attempt To Resume An Upward Movement

Dovish Comments From ECB President Christine Lagarde Sparked Speculation (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), PCE Missed Market Expectations (GBP/USD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.10.2022 16:48
Summary: USD's decline has been substantially exaggerated. Weak UK economic fundamentals once again take center stage. The Pound to Dollar exchange rate stayed robust near the week's highs. EUR left weak against USD The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Italian inflation for October topped forecasts, while Spanish GDP underperformed on all YoY and QoQ indicators, leaving the euro weak against the USD. Italy and France started the morning. German GDP came in at 1.2% and 0.3%, respectively (see economic calendar below), giving the euro a modest boost. The country's strong performance, according to the GDP report, was primarily ascribed to private consumption spending, although I think decreasing energy prices may have had some positive impact on the final result. Following the decision, ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments sparked speculation that future large rate increases from the bank would not be final. According to her, the rate change will be decided "meeting by meeting." This is true even while inflation is quite high. If the past 24 hours give any indication, the US Dollar's decline has been substantially exaggerated. During the Asian session, there has been a minor easing. EUR/USD Price Chart Euro heavily sold in the wake of ECB announcement The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Although the Pound to Euro exchange rate has recovered from September's losses, Rabobank estimates indicate that as weak UK economic fundamentals once again take center stage in the months to come, recent gains may be partially reversed. The euro was heavily sold after the European Central Bank's policy announcement on Thursday, but the pound sterling held close to its October high against the euro on Friday. However, the most recent forecast review from Rabobank implies that this rebound may already be on borrowed time. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/USD remained near weeks highs The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. After the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation fell short of expectations and did nothing to convince the market to start bidding again for the greenback ahead of next Wednesday's interest rate decision, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate stayed robust near the week's highs. Since the Fed prefers PCE price indices as an indicator of inflation, it might be significant to Federal Open Market Committee members next week since the Core PCE price index increased at an annualized rate of 5.1% last month rather than the 5.2% experts had predicted. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Bank Of England Can Tighten Monetary Policy Considerably More Gradually Than It Is Now Doing

Eurozone Inflation Touched Record Highs (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), RBA Interest Rate Decision Due On Tuesday (GBP/AUD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.10.2022 17:39
Summary: Eurostat stated that prices rose by a record 10.7% in October. Uncertainty around BoE interest rate decision. RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market is expecting a similar action on November 1. ECB under pressure to raise interest rates further The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Eurostat stated that prices rose by a record 10.7% in October, setting a new record for inflation in the Eurozone. Separate figures also revealed that the bloc's economy expanded more quickly than anticipated in the third quarter. The European Central Bank (ECB) is under more pressure to raise interest rates as the inflation data was higher than the market's expectation of 10.3%, despite predictions from some economists that the ECB will soon slow the rate at which it does so. With the energy component of fuel costs rising by an alarming 41.9% year-over-year, rising fuel prices continue to be the main source of inflationary pressures. The EUR/USD is still in a significant macrodowntrend, and even while this picture might not change much in the short term, there may yet be some upside before selling resumes. The euro broke out of a channel it had been trapped in since the beginning of the year last week. EUR/USD Price Chart Markets awaiting BoE interest rate decision The market is reflecting mixed market signals for this currency pair. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England's decision on Thursday and the possibility that the BoE will raise interest rates less than markets anticipate, the Pound to Euro exchange rate has continued its recovery from September's lows to reach two-month highs in recent trade. However, this week's gains may be vulnerable to profit-taking. The U.S. dollar weakened last week, which benefitted riskier currencies, and financial markets cheered the appointment of former chancellor Rishi Sunak as prime minister. However, market focus soon shifted to Thursday's interest rate decision and the release of October inflation data from the Eurozone on Monday. Economists and the financial markets anticipate that the BoE will increase the Bank Rate by three quarters of a percentage point to 3%. If delivered, this would be the biggest interest rate increase the BoE has ever made, however it may not be as certain or as done as many people think. EUR/GBP Price Chart RBA expected to remain dovish On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to increase interest rates once more, but the size of the increase is uncertain, with potential consequences for the Australian Dollar. On October 4, the RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market is expecting a similar action on November 1. However, as inflation picks up speed, the central bank may be compelled to make a U-turn According to the ABS, Australian CPI increased 7.3% in the twelve months leading up to the September 2022 quarter. The announcement occurred just a few days after the Reserve Bank of Australia stunned the markets by raising interest rates by 25 basis points; the Australian Dollar fell as a result. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The British Pound Is Showing Signs Of Exhaustion Of The Bullish Force

Fed Fully Expected To Raise Interest Rates By 75bps (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP), BoE Interest Rate Decision Due On Thursday (GBP/CAD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.11.2022 16:41
Summary: The Fed’s Wednesday's anticipated 75 basis point hike may be the last of its sort. The likelihood of a recession in the Euro Area has grown. The BoE decision on Thursday is the most significant event of the week for the Pound. Markets anticipate the Fed’s policy rate decision The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. With the Federal Reserve's policy announcement on Wednesday and the crucial U.S. jobs data on Friday, this is a crucial week for global FX. Therefore, the Dollar side of the equation will be the driving force behind the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD), especially now that the European Central Bank's October policy meeting is over. The possibility of a "pivot" by the Federal Reserve, whereby they signal that Wednesday's anticipated 75 basis point hike will be the last of its sort and that hikes will proceed at a slower rate starting in December, is particularly exciting for investors in the financial markets. According to some analysts, this could support the idea that the U.S. Dollar has reached its top, or the "pivot," as it is known in the financial community. EUR/USD Price Chart Likelihood of Eurozone recession has increased The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. According to a new report, the decline in UK home prices has just started. Capital Economics researchers predict falls of about 12% by 2024 on the same day Nationwide announces the first drop in home values in 15 months. The likelihood of a recession in the Euro Area has grown, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde, who also stated that while uncertainty is still high, "a central bank has to focus on its duty." The destination is clear, but we are not there yet', said President Lagarde. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP at risk due to UK economy The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate recently hit four-month highs, but numerous technical barriers are standing in the way of its ascent on the charts, and Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision carries risks that could further thwart its recovery in the days and weeks to come. Since hitting record lows near 1.40 in late September, the value of the pound has increased by more than 10% against the Canadian dollar. Last Friday, it reached a high of 1.5811, but it has been unable to hold that level due to a number of technical resistances that are scattered across the chart around the 1.57 handle. The BoE decision on Thursday is the most significant event of the week for the Pound and comes before Friday's release of Canada's September employment report. However, Sterling is at risk due to the UK economy's deteriorating performance and prospects, which are at odds with widely held beliefs about the outlook for bank rates. GBP/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Saxo Bank Podcast: Natural Gas On Colder Weather, Wheat And Coffee Under Pressure, JPY Weaker And More

Platinum Futures, Efforts To Slow Gas Prices Continue, Wheat Futures Down 6%

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.11.2022 16:34
Summary: Platinum futures are down 1.11% during 2022. Russia declared that, once its requests have been satisfied by Ukrainian counterparts, it is willing to continue the trade agreement that ensures a safe passageway for grain-carrying vessels. EU efforts to lower high energy prices are slowing down the adoption of renewable energy. Platinum Futures According to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that monitors the benchmark market for this commodity, platinum has dropped 10.67 USD/t oz. or 1.11% since the start of 2022. Platinum Jan ‘23 Futures Price Chart Wheat futures fell 6% on Wednesday Following news that trade for ships transporting grain out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports may resume operations, Chicago wheat futures plunged more than 6% to $8.5 per bushel on Wednesday, dropping considerably from the three-week high of $9 reached the prior session. Russia declared that, once its requests have been satisfied by Ukrainian counterparts, it is willing to continue the trade agreement that ensures a safe passageway for grain-carrying vessels. The action was taken after Moscow abruptly chose to terminate the agreement's participation at the end of October, citing security concerns that Kyiv refuted. The continuance of shipments from Ukraine will boost global supplies in addition to freeing up essential storage space for the upcoming harvest, increasing concerns about a global food crisis that drove wheat prices to a record-high $12.8 in May. Prior to February's Russian invasion of Ukraine, sales from both nations made up about 30% of all exports. Wheat Futures Price Chart RBOB Gasoline futures The CEO of one of the biggest wind turbine manufacturers in the world cautioned that EU efforts to lower high energy prices are slowing down the adoption of renewable energy just as the area wants to boost it up. “Every indication is that the EU and governments have spent more time in finding taxation methods or trying to limit energy prices, which has actually slowed the process and project accruals,” Henrik Andersen, chief executive of Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas, told the Financial Times. In an effort to slow the growth in energy costs across Europe brought on by high gas prices, European energy ministers decided in September to set a $180 per megawatt-hour cap on earnings from the production of wind, solar, and nuclear energy. RBOB Gasoline Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com, tradingeconomics.com
ADP Non-farm payrolls jobs market data show a growth of 127K, much less than the previous print

FOMC Interest Rate Decision In The Spotlight (EUR/USD), HSBC Claims GBP Is Close To Long-term Base (EUR/GBP, GBP/ZAR)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.11.2022 16:34
Summary: A big increase in monetary policy is unlikely to assure a rise in the value of the US dollar. Markets already struggling with the UK's long-standing and well-known structural problems. BoE interest rate decision due Thursday. Fed interest rate decision in the spotlight The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. At 18:00 GMT, the biggest central bank in the world is expected to make a controversial monetary policy announcement, and the markets are certainly focused on it. The market's reaction may be biased because speculation through Fed Fund futures and other channels has made a further 75 basis point rate hike from the group almost certain. It's crucial to remember that no single aspect of this well-publicized incident should be seen as a firm indication for speculation. A big increase in monetary policy, such as a rate hike of 75 basis points, is therefore unlikely to assure a rise in the value of the US dollar and send US indices into a downward spiral. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP appears to be finding some balance The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The largest bank in the UK, HSBC, claims that the British pound is close to a long-term base. HSBC analysts state that "after showing signs of vertigo, GBP appears to be finding some balance" in a briefing on foreign exchange research. Declines followed the market's reaction to tax cut proposals made by the former prime minister Liz Truss that were to be paid for by further borrowing, alarmed investors who questioned whether the UK's debt condition would prove to be sustainable. Markets were already struggling with the UK's long-standing and well-known structural problems, especially the budget deficit and the current account deficit, when the "mini budget" fiasco broke out. EUR/GBP Price Chart ZAR almost worst performing currency in G20 The Pound to Rand rate has more than made up for its September losses in a recovery that has most recently plateaued near 2022 highs, but if the Dollar stays weak or if Sterling is hurt by Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) decision, it will be at risk of a corrective setback later this week. The total result was an almost 12% comeback from a late September low, which saw GBP/ZAR erase much of the year's previous losses in the process. South Africa's Rand was nearly the worst performing currency in the G20 grouping for October while the Pound was among the strongest. The Rand's underperformance occurred during yet another strong month for the Dollar and a stretch of unusually marked weakness for China's Renminbi. Local data that showed the manufacturing sector as virtually the only bright spot in an otherwise cooling South African economy may also have contributed to the Rand's underperformance. GBP/ZAR Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The GBP/USD Pair Did Not Reach The Nearest Target Level Of 1.2259

USD Continued On Its Strengthening Path (EUR/USD), BoE Hiked Interest Rates By 75bps (EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD)

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.11.2022 16:28
Summary: The US Dollar continued to strengthen overall on Thursday. Another action by the Bank of England has the Pound taking a beating. Sterling dropped significantly, including against the Australian Dollar. Euro is lacking monetary backing The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. On Thursday, the US Dollar continued to strengthen overall as a result of the US Federal Reserve's decision to change its monetary policy earlier in the day. This made the Euro continue to struggle against the US Dollar. In terms of interest rates, the markets received the well-predicted three-quarter point hike that was punctually provided. However, there were a lot of people hoping that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would formally reverse his aggressive monetary tightening policy. In the end, he refrained from doing so and instead warned the markets that if inflation is to be contained, borrowing prices may still need to increase significantly. This weakness was forewarned by Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, that interest rates in the Eurozone must also continue to rise. Well, may she do so, with the currency bloc's consumer price inflation hitting historic highs. The Euro lacks monetary backing in the global market because markets anticipate more of the same. It lacks fundamental support as well, with a cost-of-living issue that is eroding consumer confidence throughout the Eurozone. Of course, Germany is the center of the currency zone. As the conflict in Ukraine drags on, it is now struggling with the necessity to wean itself off of its dependency on Russian gas. As a result, the third quarter of this year saw a significant slowdown in Eurozone growth. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP declines in the wake of BoE interest rate decision The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Another action by the Bank of England has the Pound taking a beating. The Bank of England increased the Bank Rate by 75 basis points to 3.0%, but it made it apparent that a jump to 5.0% or above was not likely, sending the Pound into a reflexive sell-off. According to a statement issued by the Bank, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decisively voted 7-2 to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, but this exceptionally significant increase appears to be an outlier. However, significantly for the foreign exchange markets, the Bank won't be delivering as many rate increases as investors anticipate. The Bank's decision and financial calculations are based on market expectations that the Bank Rate will increase to a top of 5.25% in 2023, which is why the Pound has reacted in this way. In such a case, the Bank's economists predict that inflation will return to zero in three years, significantly below the target of two percent. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD beating the GBP The Bank of England (BoE) appeared to rule out the possibility of indulging in derivative market pricing, hinting that Bank Rate could reach five percent in the months ahead, which hampered the Pound to Australian Dollar rate and put it at risk of further losses in the last session of the week. The Bank of England announced its largest increase in the Bank Rate in decades on Thursday, but said financial markets were barking up the wrong tree when they bet that borrowing costs could still rise significantly further down the road. As a result, sterling dropped significantly, including against the Australian Dollar. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com
The Idea Of A Probable Pivot In The Fed’s Policy Keeps The Price Action Around The DXY Depressed

Dollar lost ground to the Euro & GBP on Friday, US Jobs report missed expectations

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.11.2022 15:42
Summary: The US Dollar weakens in the wake of the US jobs report. The British Pound may be headed for significant losses this November against the Dollar, the Euro. USD/JPY wedge continues to grow. USD loses ground against the EUR The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Following the release of U.S. labor market data that, while still positive, reaffirmed a pattern of decreasing employment gains and pay growth, the Dollar dropped 1% against the Pound and 1.20% against the Euro. In October, the economy added 261K jobs, much exceeding the consensus estimate of 193K, while September's number was impressively raised up to 315K. Overachieving forecasts of 0.3%, average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%, suggesting persistent wage pressures that will support future domestic inflationary pressures. This information supports the Federal Reserve's statement from mid-week that it is too early to think about stopping its rate hike cycle, which raised exchange rates for the Dollar globally. Since the data do not indicate that the themes of previous months are likely to abruptly change, the Dollar's decline could instead be the result of profit-taking after Wednesday's gains. EUR/USD Price Chart BoE predict a UK economic slump The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. As investors respond to the Bank of England's most recent gloomy economic forecasts, the British Pound may be headed for significant losses this November against the Dollar, the Euro, and a variety of other major currencies. The Bank hinted that the UK economic slump, which it has been anticipating for some time, may now be considerably severe than initially anticipated in its November Monetary Policy Report. EUR/GBP Price Chart The wedge between the USD & JPY The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Due to recent currency interventions, USD/JPY has been an interesting pair, with downmoves unable to gather significant organic impetus. However, a dollar bid continues to put the majority of currencies under pressure, making it challenging to dismiss gains as durable given the wider technical context. The rising wedge that had developed over the previous few months indicated that at some point we would either have a breakdown that would lead to an unwinding that would cause USD/JPY to plummet by a significant amount or a shot higher that would conclude the run upward. EUR/GBP Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
According to ING, US Producer Price Index may mean that inflation could decrease earlier

The US dollar index decreased on Monday, BoE November interest rate decision caused significant losses for the GBP

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.11.2022 17:48
Summary: The US data released on Friday was mostly encouraging as job growth exceeded expectations. Friday's release of UK GDP statistics, it might go even further and return to lows from early October. EU economy produced 0.2% growth The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. In Q3, the EU economy demonstrated that it could produce growth of 0.2% Q/Q. The tiny gain in Q3 depicts the same larger picture, which is that growth has slowed and a recession is still in effect, despite the fact that it appears to be rather hopeful. One of the key indications from a nationwide survey demonstrates how manufacturing has been under tremendous strain as a result of the crisis of rising energy prices. The US data released on Friday was mostly encouraging as job growth exceeded expectations. The decrease in the dollar index, which has persisted into today's European session, was not justified by the minor increase in unemployment statistics. The market's forecast of a 50 bp increase from the Federal Reserve's December meeting is the only thing that has changed. EUR/USD Price Chart BoE November interest rate decision resulted in losses for the GBP The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision in November resulted in significant losses for the Pound to Euro exchange rate, but if the market is still wary of Sterling going into Friday's release of UK GDP statistics, it might go even further and return to lows from early October. After the BoE stated, based on its most recent forecasts, that it believes it has likely already done enough with interest rates to ensure that inflation returns to the 2% target in the coming years, sterling suffered significant losses against most major currencies last week and fell almost 2% against the Euro. In an open conflict with market bets that borrowing costs could climb to 4.7% or more in the coming months, the BoE additionally stated that investors would be foolish to anticipate Bank Rate to rise from November's recently boosted level of 3%. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD is weaker on monday The Australian Dollar is weaker at the beginning of a new week that may focus on events in China, where officials are showing a willingness to fight rumors that they are likely to reevaluate their zero-Covid policy. The National Health Commission (NHC) of China reaffirmed its commitment to eradicating Covid-19 during a news conference on Saturday, cautioning that the situation was likely to worsen and become "more complex" as the nation entered the winter flu season. The Australian lagged behind. The GBP/AUD currency rate experienced its biggest weekly decrease since the week of February 28 as investors bet on a Chinese economic revival, falling 2.83% for the week. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
InstaForex expects risky assets to regain demand if the US CPI declines

US Dollar rally seems to be coming to an end, GBP rebounded on Monday

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.11.2022 18:18
Summary: Many ECB policymakers have reiterated the central bank's stance on interest rates and inflation. The British Pound is weaker on Tuesday after making a good rebound on Monday. ECB remaining hawkish The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Many ECB policymakers have reiterated the central bank's stance on interest rates and inflation, contending that higher rates must be maintained for a longer period of time in order to contain double-digit price pressures. The financial wires are awash in hawkish ECB language in what appears to be a coordinated effort to reassert the central bank's authority and will on the rates market. At the end of October, the ECB raised interest rates by 75 basis points to 1.50%, its third straight increase and the highest level since 2009. At its meeting on December 15, the central bank is anticipated to increase rates by an additional 50 basis points. The US dollar is under pressure as speculators start to look past rising US rate predictions and instead focus on when the Fed may pause its tightening cycle, while the Euro has benefited from expectations of higher rates. The fact that the markets are already anticipating a turnaround, even though this may be months away, is putting pressure on the dollar. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP supported by general market uptrend The market is expecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The British Pound is weaker on Tuesday after making a good rebound on Monday, and price movement suggests that the UK currency is following global trends during a week with few domestic events. Analysts note that the UK's domestic situation is still difficult and that any gains are likely to be fleeting. Despite this, the Pound had the best performance among the major currencies on Monday as global markets continued their recent uptrend, helping the UK currency to somewhat recoup its losses following last Thursday's Bank of England report. The Pound's recovery may continue over the next several days if the mood music is generally cheerful. GBP/USD Price Chart US dollar is believed to be nearing the end of its uptrend The market is expecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Capital Economics experts believe that the Dollar may be nearing the end of a multi-month uptrend, but they caution that it is still too early to start preparing for a rollover and trend change. The Federal Reserve is reaching the conclusion of its tightening cycle, according to analysis by the independent financial and economics research source, and as a result, there is little room for a further widening of predicted interest rate differentials in favor of the Dollar. The war in Ukraine, anticipation of Fed interest rate increases, and a post-pandemic decline in equity markets have all worked together to strengthen the Dollar. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
UK recession could deteriorate with tighter monetary and fiscal policy, the US dollar suffered another setback

UK recession could deteriorate with tighter monetary and fiscal policy, the US dollar suffered another setback

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.11.2022 17:00
Summary: Experts foresee more short-term weakness for the Canadian Dollar against the Pound The bullish trend in the USD suffered yet another setback on Tuesday. The UK recession will deteriorate with tighter monetary and fiscal policy. Euro recovery may be strong The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. After a support bounce failed, the bullish trend in the USD suffered yet another setback yesterday. The currency was driven lower by sellers to make a new monthly bottom, but support quickly appeared around the same level that had been in play a few weeks before and served as a target for a double top formation at 109.62. There are a number of levels close below that swing as well, which may allow for a support bounce before the release of the CPI data tomorrow. From some perspectives, the major question is whether a stronger recovery can be seen in the Euro. Over the past nine months, the euro has been battered and bruised, but as of my initial inspection in October, the pain was beginning to subside and a deeper downturn was beginning. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP down against its peers The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The UK recession will deteriorate with tighter monetary and fiscal policy, according to Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets for EMEA at MUFG. The recent Bank of England policy update has strengthened the foreign exchange strategists' belief in this trade, according to a new note. They are selling pound sterling against the euro. On Thursday, November 3, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 75 basis points, but warned that if it followed market expectations and pushed through even more increases, the UK economy would enter a recession that would last eight quarters. As a result, the Pound dropped against all of its peers. The market interpreted this as a message from the Bank that it would not hike rates as much as anticipated going into the policy update, which caused expectations to be reassessed and caused the Pound to fall on the day. EUR/GBP Price Chart CAD weakness foreseen National Bank of Canada (NBC) experts foresee more short-term weakness for the Canadian Dollar against the Pound, Dollar, and Euro but a robust recovery through 2023. Up until the second half of the year, when oil prices began to decline from their post-invasion levels and the Bank of Canada slowed down its rate-hiking acceleration, the Canadian Dollar was one of the best-performing currencies in 2022. GBP/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The World's Leading Economies Not Doing Well And This Is Keeping High Demand For USD

US dollar index touching new monthly lows, pound sterling is reacting well to increase in market sentiment

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.11.2022 18:54
Summary: Prices in DXY are currently driving down to new monthly lows. The British pound is responding to an overall increase in risk sentiment. The New Zealand Dollar is proving to be an apparent bet for a Chinese economic resurgence. USD feeling the effect of the CPI inflation data release The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Prices in DXY are currently driving down to new monthly lows after posing a support rebound yesterday. Along the way, they are passing a significant area of confluent support. Sellers have struck. The daily candle for today will be crucial because it is presently forming a bearish engulfing pattern. And if that holds true, with price closing below those supports, then bearish continuation possibilities will still be possible. The daily bar close today will be crucial because, at this point, we're still feeling the effects of the CPI print, and how market players react today will reveal how they'll assimilate this new information. As market investors altered their expectations for higher policy rates, as shown by increased sovereign debt yields in the euro area, euro assets remained volatile across the review period. Since then, rates have somewhat decreased as the economic implications of aggressive tightening start to accumulate and systemic risk originating in the UK has largely been isolated as a result of the Bank of England's retaliatory actions and UK government policy reversals. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP supported by positive investor sentiment The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The British pound is responding to an overall increase in risk sentiment, so Thursday's moves will likely be influenced by how the global equity markets perform, which are now suffering losses after a series of occurrences midweek. After suffering significant losses the day before, market morale has since improved, and the value of the pound is rising at the start of the day. In sync with the upbeat investor sentiment evident in global equities markets on Monday, the pound rose. However, these gains were erased on Wednesday amid a wider market selloff focused on China and disruptions in the cryptocurrency area. EUR/GBP Price Chart Chinese economic resurgence allows NZD to be an apparent bet Markets are adjusting to the possibility that China won't abandon its zero-Covid policy until the spring, which will result in a change in fortunes for the New Zealand Dollar and other like "commodity currencies." Analysts caution that the recent enthusiasm seen over the previous ten days is unwarranted and that the Chinese economy's reopening is likely to be a gradual and rocky process. Nevertheless, the New Zealand Dollar is proving to be an apparent bet for a Chinese economic resurgence. GBP/NZD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
EUR/USD Pair May Have A Potential For The Further Rally

Eurozone’s entry into a recession may be delayed, the GBP and NZD - high beta currencies

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.11.2022 17:20
Summary: Analysts predict that the EUR/USD exchange rate will continue to improve. Eurozone entry into a recession may be delayed. Neither the British pound nor the New Zealand dollar seem to be winning out. Fed still determined to bring down inflation The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Analysts predict that the EUR/USD exchange rate will continue to improve over the course of the upcoming week, however many still believe that the market is merely clearing out technical positions rather than the beginning of a long-term recovery. The Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's remarks that the Fed was not yet prepared to cease its cycle of rate hikes helped the Dollar at the beginning of the new week. Investors' reactions to an unexpected drop in U.S. inflation caused the Dollar index, a gauge of the dollar's performance more broadly, to plummet by 4% last week. The statistics indicated that the U.S. inflation peak is near, and the Federal Reserve should therefore think about reducing the rate of raises. Most investors are now expecting a downshift to a 50 basis point boost in December. But Waller said investors risk getting carried away with a belief the end of rate hikes is close. EUR/USD Price Chart Eurozones entry into a recession expected to be delayed The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Following a 0.9% month-over-month and 4.9% year-over-year increase in September industrial production for the Eurozone, the currency received a lift on Monday. The numbers are far better than the anticipated +0.1% m/m and 2.8% y/y, indicating that the European Union's entry into recession may be postponed. The current recovery could turn out to be mostly technical in character, which would increase the dollar's strength as investors pay attention to the Fed's warnings that the cycle of interest rate hikes is far from over. This would be a risk for those looking for a stronger Euro. The British pound is a "high beta" currency, which means that it tends to rise along with rising stock markets around the world, as was undoubtedly the case after the inflation figure. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/NZD currency pair A busy UK calendar could mean that this pair finally offers up some excitement this week. The Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate (GBP/NZD) has been consolidating around 1.93 for nearly seven days now, and the near-term price activity is beginning to resemble the coiling of a spring. With two "high beta" currencies that are responsive to global conditions, the GBP/NZD pair has seen its price action in November mostly driven by world events. As a result, both currencies have benefited from the U.S. inflation surprise from last week. But when compared with one another, neither the British pound nor the New Zealand dollar seem to be winning out. GBP/NZD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The GBP/USD Pair Was Trading Calmly But The Volatility Still Remained Very High

The US dollars surrender to the Euro continues, GBP/USD touching 3-month highs, BoJ may continue its loose monetary policy

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 15.11.2022 18:54
Summary: The USD continues its surrender to the Euro. The Pound has risen to a new three-month high versus the Dollar. The figures from today may indicate that the BoJ will keep its monetary policy loose. Euro performs well against the USD The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) hit a high of 1.0477 on Tuesday as a result of the continued dollar surrender that was brought on by the publication of weaker-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data last Thursday. The advances have already brought the pair close to the 1.05 level, which was predicted to be a potential objective in the near future by our week ahead projection. Investors' assumption that the Federal Reserve will slow down its interest rate hike cycle as U.S. inflation shows symptoms of peaking has sent the EUR/USD up 3.7% last week and another 1.10% this week. The sudden increase in the Euro's value relative to the Dollar is most likely due to a sizable liquidation of "long" dollar positions taken by investors hoping to profit from the Dollar's multi-month advance. EUR/USD Price Chart US dollars downfall in the wake of economic data The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Pound has risen to a new three-month high versus the Dollar as another inflation report fueled the U.S. currency's significant devaluation that was initially started by last week's U.S. inflation data. At 13:30 GMT, the Dollar's drop increased with the announcement of the U.S. The PPI inflation data was less than anticipated, confirming the CPI inflation from last week that the trend of rising prices has peaked. The strong market response to last week's U.S. inflation reading, which saw CPI come in below market expectations and indicated a turning point for both inflation and the Federal Reserve rate hike cycle might have been reached, is extended by the GBP/three-month USD's high. GBP/USD Price Chart USD/JPY currency pair The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Japanese Yen initially ignored the dismal GDP numbers because the USD/JPY was comfortably over 140.00. After 30 minutes, it surged past 140.50. The Japanese seasonally adjusted 3Q quarter-to-quarter GDP was down 0.3% from the previous quarter's 0.9%, falling short of predictions of 0.3%. In contrast to expectations of 1.2% and 3.5%, seasonally adjusted annualized quarter-to-quarter GDP as of the end of September was -1.2%. Prior to the release of today's data, the USD/JPY had been lagging in the wake of last Thursday's release of the US CPI, which the market had deemed to be rather benign. This sparked suspicion that the Federal Reserve would not need to raise rates as aggressively as previously believed. The graphic below illustrates the connection between Treasury yields, Japan-US bond spreads, and USD/JPY. With the Bank of Japan's yield curve control program, changes in Treasury yield mostly dictate the bond spread. The figures from today may indicate that the central bank will keep its monetary policy loose. USD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Growth Of The USD/JPY Pair Is Hampered By Resistance

Euro has remained resilient to currency counterparts despite Tuesdays events in Poland, Yen supported by USD decline

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 16.11.2022 17:29
Summary: The EUR/USD has displayed remarkable resilience to trade higher. The British Pound plummeted against the Euro. The JPY has clearly benefited from the decline in the value of the USD. Financial markets are on high alert The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. According to the most recent 30-day Fed Fund futures price information, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to increase interest rates by a further 100 basis points over the upcoming months, to 475–500bps, and then suspend their tightening cycle. Despite yesterday's concern following reports of a missile landing in Poland, the EUR/USD has displayed remarkable resilience to trade higher this morning. According to Joe Biden's remarks, it seems improbable that Russia fired the missile based on its trajectory. Due to the possibility of a wider conflict now that a NATO ally has been negatively impacted by the Russia/Ukraine crisis, the missile has put Europe, NATO, and financial markets on high alert. At 9:00 GMT, NATO has called an emergency meeting to review yesterday's events and the alliance's response. EUR/USD price chart UK inflation figures caused GBP to decline The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Following some hotter-than-expected UK inflation figures that suggested the Bank of England could not yet afford to stop its interest rate hike cycle, the British Pound plummeted against the Euro, the Dollar, and other major currencies. However, we cautioned in our week-ahead forecast that the market might now consider stronger-than-expected inflation as a negative, as rising prices and interest rates would snuff out the UK's prospects for economic development. Normally, such a result would help the Pound. EUR/GBP price chart JPY supported by weak USD The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Japanese Yen has clearly benefited from the decline in the value of the US dollar in November, outperforming all other major currencies. However, analysts at MUFG believe the Japanese Yen could rise even more in the future, especially against the British pound. They advise clients to bet against the GBP/JPY pair and look for a fall to 158. After official data revealed that U.S. inflation softened in October, the Yen surged substantially against all equivalents in the G10 group of major currencies, but analysts at Japan's largest banking MUFG claim that this was just the start of a longer-lasting rebound. GBP/JPY price chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Has Shown That It Is Not Shy About Intervening In The Currency Markets

Eurozone headline inflation reached a record high in October, The UK’s future prospects for future economic development, CHF is the second best performing currency for 2022

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.11.2022 16:10
Summary: Final headline inflation in the Euro Area reached a record high. Tax increases and spending reductions in the UK. CHF becomes the second best performer of 2022. EUR/USD constrained by interest rate disparity The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Final headline inflation in the Euro Area reached a record high of 10.6% in October, just under the earlier estimate of 10.7%. Data from Eurostat show that the highest annual rate in October was for energy, which was at 41.5 percent (up from 40.7 percent in September), followed by food, alcohol, and tobacco, which had a rate of 13.1 percent (down from 11.8 percent in September), and non-energy industrial goods, which had a rate of 6.1 percent (compared to 5.5 percent in September). As the post-CPI surge slows, the current gain in the EUR/USD has come to an end. The prices in the ultra-short end of the US bond market are stable even as market forecasts of a reduction in rate increases rise. The yield on a one-year US Treasury bill is approximately 4.66 percent, which is more than 250 basis points higher than the yield on a one-year German bond. Any short-term increase in the EUR/USD currency will continue to be constrained by this interest rate disparity. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP relying on Hunts credibility The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The UK's prospects for future economic development will be diminished by the tax increases and spending reductions, but a convincing autumn statement from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt might boost the value of the pound sterling. This is due to the fact that reputation will determine how the market responds to the fiscal event on Thursday. Hunt is expected to present a budget that will hinder development; however, the Pound's response will ultimately depend on how the market reacts to the credibility issue. Some analysts caution that while the Pound might gain from renewed confidence, its value could still drop if Hunt is overly bold and his recommended level of austerity becomes overwhelming. EUR/GBP Price Chart CHF could continue to strengthen According to analysts at Nomura, the Swiss Franc has flipped the major currency league table on its head to become the second best performer of 2022. However, it could rise even further against the Pound and even have the potential to bring the GBP/CHF rate back to 1.0555 in the coming months. In the early months of the year, the Swiss Franc had given the Japanese Yen a tough fight for the bottom spot in the performance rankings of the major currencies, but a hawkish stance by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and a supportive foreign exchange policy have reversed the previous order of performances. The SNB has become open to buying back its own currency whenever market circumstances cause the Franc to weaken, even though it is still prepared to suppress the Franc if it appreciates too much for its tastes. This is because doing otherwise would raise Switzerland's inflation rate further. GBP/CHF Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Technical Outlook: The EUR/USD Bear Trend Will Be Confirmed And The GBP/USD Has Not Managed To Close Above

The Fed may begin slowing their interest rate hiking cycle, UK promising to return to fiscal credibility

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 18.11.2022 16:34
Summary: EUR/USD currency pair has risen 4% over the past 2 weeks. GBPs response to investor sentiment globally to determine near term credibility. The CAD was outperforming many other major currencies this year, but recently started to lag behind them. EUR/USD has risen by 4% over the past 2 weeks The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. The Euro will decline against the Dollar in the coming months, comfortably falling below parity, according to Danske Bank's unwavering forecast. The rate of exchange between the Euro and the Dollar (EUR/USD) has increased by 4.0 percent over the last two weeks as a result of signs that U.S. inflation is slowing down as well as market analysts' conviction that the Federal Reserve will reduce the pace of its rate hikes, giving investors more confidence to price the peak in interest rates. Data released on Wednesday showed that American consumers were still in good shape, with retail sales increasing by 1.3 percent in October, an acceleration from the 0 percent recorded in September and higher than the market's forecast of 1.0 percent growth. Therefore, the Fed may slow down its rate rise cycle but lengthen it, providing a series of 25 basis point rate adjustments over the ensuing months that may still provide support for the Dollar. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR/GBP on track to end the week slightly higher The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The UK's Autumn Statement, which promised a return to fiscal credibility, was well received by the financial markets, but the direction of the near term should be determined by how the British Pound responds to investor sentiment globally. As part of his effort to tighten fiscal policy and ensure that the nation's finances remained on a sustainable footing, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt proposed savings totaling £55BN, or roughly 2.0 percent of GDP. The Pound-Euro rate appears to be on track to conclude the week slightly higher, and the Pound-Dollar rate is also slightly higher than it was at this time last week, consolidating the huge gains from the previous week. EUR/GBP Price Chart CAD emerging as a top option for speculative short-selling The Canadian Dollar has outperformed many other major currencies this year, but recently started to lag behind them. As a result, the Canadian Dollar is quickly emerging as a top candidate for speculative short-selling by Spectra Markets in advance of an anticipated economic slowdown caused by rising mortgage rates. By Friday, Canada's Dollar had dropped to third place in the ranking of the G10 currencies for the year after suffering significant losses against all significant rivals other than the US. Over the period of November, the dollar has generally corrected lower. The main thesis is that a large rise in Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rates this year will eventually affect Canadian homeowners' monthly mortgage payments. Higher borrowing costs are anticipated to reduce household earnings and have negative second-round impacts on a number of economic sectors. GBP/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Movement Of The NZD/USD Pair On The 4-hour Chart

China’s COVID-19 regulations causing U.S Stocks to decline, Inflation in the UK could be pushed up by 1% in April

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.11.2022 18:44
Summary: The Dollar was bid and stocks declined on Monday. The most recent budget from HM Treasury will push up inflation by a percentage point. AUD gave ground to most of its major currency counterparts to start the new week. Investor confidence improved in China The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. In spite of indications, the Dollar was bid and stocks declined. China is enforcing stricter regulations to combat a Covid-19 outbreak that is spreading. Three Covid deaths were reported by authorities over the weekend in Beijing, the first in more than six months. Just days after the nation said it was loosening some restrictions, there are reportedly early signs that some authorities are returning to a zero-Covid policy. In recent weeks, speculation that China would be willing to abandon its zero-Covid policy has intensified, boosting investor confidence amid speculation that the world's second-largest economy could spark a resurgence in global economic activity. This favorable environment proved to be a barrier for the dollar, which often gains when market anxieties are mounting and forecasts for global growth are weakening. EUR/USD Price Chart UK inflation expected to increase The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Without changing the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate policy, own goals in c starting in April and force taxpayers to fork over an additional £5 billion or more to cover the increase in debt interest costs that results. The decision to reduce the household energy price guarantee and increase fuel taxes starting in April 2023 will result in higher inflation as measured by the consumer and retail price indices, which will automatically affect future government spending, particularly costs associated with debt servicing. Sterling pounds Live calculations indicate that these two factors will cause consumer price inflation to increase by an additional 1% in April and retail price index inflation to increase by 1.3%, both of which will raise the cost of servicing borrowings with inflation-linked interest rates by approximately £5BN. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD gave ground to most of its major currency counterparts The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Bank of England will all be providing monetary policy commentary this week, so the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate has benefited from a corrective setback in AUD/USD that may keep Sterling buoyant above 1.7750 this week. The risk of new coronavirus-related economic closures in China weighed on asset prices throughout the Asia Pacific region as well as on the currencies of those countries exporting into the second-largest economy in the world, and Australia's dollar gave ground to most of its major currency counterparts to start the new week. AUD/GBP Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The EUR/USD Pair Maintains The Bullish Sentiment

Rising NGAS costs may pose downside danger to the Euro, UK economic outlook looks bleak

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.11.2022 17:04
Summary: Euro held steady throughout Asian trading. Energy Bills Support Scheme's concurrent expiration, may have a greater negative impact on household earnings. NZD has had the best performance among major currencies over the past month. Euro faces downside risk The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Following the turbulent start to the week on Monday, when the EUR/USD fell, the Euro held steady throughout Asian trading. The Fed speakers' continued hawkish posture, which also hurt markets, helped the US dollar increase. Risk assets were also hurt by a rise of Covid-19 cases in China because of concerns that harsh lock downs would continue there. Even while experts at one European bank claim there is "less pain in the pipeline" for the region and its single currency, rising natural gas costs in the Eurozone are recognized by foreign exchange strategists as a downside danger to the Euro. According to analysts, the little increase in gas prices coincides with a drop in temperatures across Europe after an abnormally warm autumn that allowed nations to stockpile gas supplies and use less gas than is customary at this time of year. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP under pressure from poor UK economic outlook The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Early in the new week, the Pound to Euro exchange rate continued to rise after last Friday's advance, but after three straight days of gains, Sterling is now rapidly approaching a crowded area of technical resistances near and above the 1.16 level on the charts, suggesting that the rally may soon come to an end. The problem for families, the economy, and the pound is that, as a result of reforms outlined by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in last Thursday's budget, energy costs are expected to grow dramatically once more starting in April 2023, when the average annual tariff would rise by another 20% to £3,000. Due to the Energy Bills Support Scheme's concurrent expiration, this will have a greater negative impact on household earnings. However, it will also have a positive impact on UK inflation rates and have additional effects on the state finances. EUR/GBP Price Chart NZD supported by improved investor sentiment Although the New Zealand Dollar has had the best performance among major currencies over the past month, one analyst claims that it is beginning to seem "stretched" in front of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's upcoming interest rate announcement. The Kiwi has risen against all of its G10 counterparts over the past four weeks, helped by a noticeable improvement in investor sentiment worldwide and as investors raised their expectations for the amount of interest rate hiking to come from the RBNZ in response to a series of domestic data releases that exceeded expectations. Following New Zealand's October Q3 CPI inflation announcement, which exceeded estimates and bolstered expectations for a 75bp hike, the market increased its expectations. Data on the labor market and quarterly wages also confirmed these predictions. However, an analyst questions if the RBNZ will want to speed up rate increases given that it was among the first to act and has consistently moved rates by 50 basis points, and has no need to play catch-up given that it is one of the G10 rate leaders. GBP/NZD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The EUR/USD Price Failed To Exhibit A Strong Trending Movement

Eurozone economy seems to be falling into a recession, UK economic outlook seems poor

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.11.2022 18:08
Summary: The Eurozone PMIs showed that the bloc's economy contracted in November. Despite the UK economy contracting in November, the GBP extended a short-term recovery. CAD fared better than Sterling during the first sessions of the week Eurozone PMI data didn’t beat expectations by enough The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The Eurozone PMIs showed that the bloc's economy contracted in November, but the magnitude of the decline was less severe than anticipated by the markets. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing registered at 47.3, exceeding the consensus estimate of 46.0 and up from the previous month's reading of 46.4. Unfortunately for the euro, the positive data was insufficient to quell the bearish sentiment surrounding the currency, including recessionary risks and the ECB hawks' unwillingness to support a 75 basis point interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting. The day ahead should see increased volatility for the EUR/USD due to the prominence of US data. EUR/USD Price Chart UK economic outlook looks bleak The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. Following the release of statistics showing that, despite the UK economy contracting in November, corporate forecasts for the coming year increased from a 30-month low, the British pound extended a short-term recovery. The most recent S&P Global PMI readings indicated that economic activity continued to decline for another month, but the data was better than anticipated, so this would be a generally favorable development for markets. However, this downturn was predicted, and as economist at Berenberg Kallum Pickering puts it, "the recession is terrible, but not becoming worse." This remark is critical for the Pound given the dire economic prognosis for the UK. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP/CAD outlook improved According to technical analysis from Scotiabank, the outlook for the Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate has improved further in recent trading. Sterling may now be able to hit some of its best levels since the end of the first quarter after gaining ground over the 1.57 mark last week. Although some believe this is likely merely a temporary setback for the Pound, the Canadian Dollar fared better than Sterling during the first sessions of the week after an over two month surge in GBP/CAD stopped following a run-in with technical support on the charts late last week. GBP/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The Bank Of England Has Warned That Negative Growth Will Extend All The Way

Eurozone recession may not be as bad as previously anticipated, demand for UK government bonds driving the GBP

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.11.2022 15:34
Summary: Eurozone flash PMIs remain in the contractionary range. The GBP has just moved higher thanks to demand for UK government bonds. The value of the CAD has fallen as a result of falling oil prices. Eurozone economy still remains in contractionary range The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The most recent flash PMIs for the Euro Area outperformed expectations this morning, but they are still firmly in the contractionary range. Although November's numbers were better than anticipated, the data point to the Euro Area's economy contracting by about 0.2% in Q4. A recession appears probable, but, as data provider S&P notes, the latest data provide hope that the severity of the slump may not be as severe as originally feared. The US dollar data and the most recent FOMC minutes will likely drive the pair into the weekend due to holidays in the rest of the day. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP supported by UK government bond demand The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The British pound has just moved considerably higher thanks to demand for UK government bonds, and since the rest of the week will be quiet due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, gains may hold. In tandem with a strong increase in the price of UK government debt, the Pound rose sharply versus the Euro, the Dollar, and other major currencies through Wednesday and into Thursday. The cost of funding mortgages and other financial products in the UK has decreased as a result of the increase in bond prices and the associated decline in their yields across different time tenors in the bond market. Bond yields are declining, which indicates a loosening of UK financial conditions and is positive for future economic growth. EUR/GBP Price Chart CAD weighed down by falling oil prices The value of the Canadian Dollar has fallen as a result of falling oil prices, and one industry analyst has predicted that a planned cap on Russian oil could have a disproportionately large effect on Canada. In the last 24 hours, the Canadian Dollar has fallen 1.5% against the British Pound due to a decline in oil prices. Canadian benchmarks are impacted by the decline in global oil prices, which reduces the possibility for the country to generate foreign money. Since the Canadian Dollar and oil market dynamics frequently correlate, the GBP/CAD exchange rate may soon be dependent on changes in the energy market. This linkage previously appeared to have disappeared. GBP/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
The GBP/USD Pair Did Not Reach The Nearest Target Level Of 1.2259

Eurozone’s future is clouded by economic unrest in China, GBP’s future for the week lies in the hands of external variables

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.11.2022 17:10
Summary: The EUR/USD exchange rate has benefited from the final quarter's risk asset rally. The GBP made gains this week in a market that was favorable to riskier assets. Euro opened weaker on Monday, weighed down by the Chinese economy The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Although technical resistances near 1.04 on the charts have recently held back the recovery of the Euro to Dollar exchange rate, it could succumb to losses this week that push the single currency back toward 1.0303 or lower in the coming days. The Euro to Dollar exchange rate has benefited significantly from the final quarter's risk asset rally. Since financial markets adopted an upbeat perspective on the outlook for China in its ongoing fight against the coronavirus and for the U.S. as the Federal Reserve (Fed) attempts to get the better of inflation, the single currency of Europe has almost completely reversed this year's losses against the Dollar. The world's second-largest economy is currently experiencing restrictions due to the coronavirus, and there have been public demonstrations against these limits in several parts of China. This has put the euro on the back foot on Monday. The Chinese economy is also, in some respects, Europe's second-largest export market, which contributed to the weak start for the Euro on Monday, and the ongoing economic unrest in China further clouds the future for the Eurozone. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP’s future depends on external variables The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The technical resistance for the Pound to Euro exchange rate is placed near 1.1667, and it started the new week close to November highs. The pound made some gains this week in a market that was favorable to riskier assets and unfavorable to the dollar, but it was unable to go over 1.1667 versus the euro, which is quite close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the late-August downturn in GBP/EUR. Technical resistance at that level previously prevented the Pound's October recovery from the lows it reached after the budget event in September, and it may do so again this week as a light UK economic calendar puts external variables in charge of Sterling's direction. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP may struggle to move forward in the coming days The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. The GBP/USD exchange rate has more than partially recovered this year's decline, but it now faces the possibility of a corrective setback that could push it back around 1.20 or possibly below it during the next several days. Last week, sterling increased in a market that was favorable for riskier assets and unfavorable for the U.S. dollar, but it was unable to overcome a double-barreled layer of technical resistance and may now find it difficult to move forward in the coming days. This is partially due to events that occurred over the weekend in China, where new discontent over the most recent round of restrictions connected to the coronavirus is likely to keep financial markets focused on the significant financial consequences of the government's ongoing efforts to contain COVID. That might reduce risk appetite on the global markets and put the pound to dollar exchange rate on the defensive from the start of this week. GBP/USD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
The Latest UK CPI Figure Is Below October’s 11.1% Peak

German CPI inflation missed market expectations, CAD down around 2% on Tuesday

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.11.2022 19:10
Summary: Signs of an industrial slowdown in the Eurozone emerged. Eurozone inflation could have taken a larger step toward its peak. Renminbi weighing on the CAD Worries of a global recession continue The market is reflecting bullish signals for this currency pair. Consumer confidence in the Eurozone for November came in at the expected level, but after actual data came in below expectations, signs of an industrial slowdown emerged. This may be related to concerns about a global recession as well as the effect of China on demand-side issues. After China is said to have deescalated tensions and given the euro a boost, yesterday's hawkish commentary from Fed officials and China's ongoing COVID crisis did not hold. The Eurozone has strong ties to China, which can expose the euro to weakness in the event of negative Chinese news. Yesterday, Christine Lagarde of the ECB noted that interest rates still have a ways to go. EUR/USD Price Chart German CPI inflation missed market expectations. The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The Eurozone has strong ties to China, which can expose the euro to weakness in the event of negative Chinese news. Yesterday's hawkish commentary from Fed officials as well as China's ongoing COVID crisis did not hold true today. Interest rates still have a long way to go, according to Christine Lagarde of the ECB, who said that yesterday. According to Destatis, Germany's annual inflation rate for the year ending in November was 10%, down from 10.4% in October and below the consensus estimate of 10.4%. The information was released ahead of Wednesday's CPI inflation report, which currently appears to be on track to fall short of expectations. GBP/CAD Price Chart CAD lost around 2% on Tuesday Early in the new week, the Canadian Dollar dropped significantly against all major currencies due to a rolling underperformance that increased USD/CAD and GBP/CAD despite widespread declines in U.S. Dollar exchange rates, giving the Loonie the appearance that it might be about to roll over. On Tuesday, the Canadian Dollar experienced losses of over two percent against the rising Chinese Renminbi and Korean Won, but what was considerably more dramatic than this price action was the one percent rise in the USD/CAD, which surged swiftly and even as most other U.S. exchange rates sank. GBP/CAD Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Plenty Of Things To Discuss In The Market Insights Podcast By Oanda

Inflation in the Eurozone fell for the first time since July, AUD one of the best performing currencies in the G10

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.11.2022 19:03
Summary: On Wednesday, the dollar gained support as Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The ECB is expected to pause the pace of interest rate hikes. AUD benefited from the Renminbi's latest rally. U.S labor statistics offer USD support The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The annual inflation rate for the Euro Area is 10% in November, down from 10.6% in October and marking the first decrease since July 2021. Energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco are not included in core inflation figures, which remained stable and had a 5% reading that was in line with expectations. The figures, together with weaker readings from Belgium, Germany, and Spain, will undoubtedly give the European Central Bank much to think about before its meeting on December 15. The market's concern is if they are prepared for the Fed to slow the pace down to 50bp after raising interest rates by 75bp at its last two sessions (Markets currently pricing in 54bp). A slowdown may not be in the cards, according to recent remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who claimed that inflation has not yet peaked. On Wednesday, the dollar gained support as Bureau of Labor Statistics data suggested that the U.S. economy's recovery from the depths of a previous technical recession in the third quarter was more robust than previously thought. EUR/USD Price Chart ECB expected to slow interest rate hiking cycle The market is reflecting mixed signals for this currency pair. Following the announcement of Eurozone inflation statistics that arrived at a lower-than-anticipated rate, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to pause the pace of interest rate hikes with a 50 basis point move the following month. However, considering that core inflation is set at 5%, substantially over the ECB's preferred level of 2.0%, the ECB cannot afford to relax just yet. With prices still relatively high, the British pound is still in a phase of consolidation. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD one of the best performing G10 currencies Midweek trading saw a further decline in the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate from recent highs around 1.80. Going forward, it is probable that the pair will fluctuate between 1.7660 and 1.8046 as a tug-of-war between the strong U.S. Dollar and the strengthening Chinese Renminbi takes place. Australia's Dollar was one of the best-performing currencies in the G10 on Wednesday as the Asian region's currencies benefited from the Renminbi's latest rally and the antipodean currency itself seemed to benefit from official data that revealed a surprising drop in Australian inflation rates for October. Australian inflation decreased in October from an annual rate of 7.3% to 6.9%, whereas the majority of economists had predicted a rise to 7.6%. This downward surprise was caused by lower price increases for the majority of items included in the consumer price index. GBP/AUD Price Chart Sources: dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Has Shown That It Is Not Shy About Intervening In The Currency Markets

The SNB Stays Hawkish And Wants To Keep The Real CHF Stable

ING Economics ING Economics 09.12.2022 14:02
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets on 15 December and is expected to decide on a third rate hike, this time probably by 50bp, in the context of a stabilisation of inflation at 3%. A further rate increase could then take place in March 2023, after which rates are likely to remain unchanged. We forecast further nominal CHF appreciation in the first half of 2023 New tightening to come After years of fighting deflation with a very accommodating monetary policy, including interventions in the foreign exchange market to weaken the Swiss franc and the lowest policy interest rate in the world, the SNB began a normalisation of monetary policy in June 2022 to fight inflation. After a 50bp increase in June and a 75bp increase in September, the Swiss policy rate returned to positive territory at 0.5%. In November, inflation in Switzerland stabilised at 3%, down from the August peak of 3.5%. Inflation is therefore still above the SNB's target of between 0-2%, but well below that of neighbouring countries, thanks to a more favourable energy mix, a lower share of energy in consumption and the strength of the Swiss franc, which limits imported inflation. At its December meeting, the SNB is expected to acknowledge that Swiss inflation has probably passed its peak and that the deceleration observed since the summer is a good thing. It will provide new inflation forecasts, with a likely downward revision for 2022 (it was expecting 3.0% on average for the year at its September meeting, but 2.8% now seems more likely). At the same time, it will probably also warn against celebrating victory too soon and insist that inflation is still well above its target and that second-round risks remain significant. As a result, we expect the SNB to raise its policy rate by 50bp at the December meeting, leading to a total rate increase over the year 2022 of 175bp in Switzerland, against probably 250bp in the eurozone and 425bp in the US over the same period. Going forward, we expect price growth to decelerate gradually but slowly, remaining above target for the first half of the year, before falling back below 2% by the end of 2023. We expect the SNB to make a final 50bp hike at its March 2023 meeting, bringing the rate to 1.5% and leaving it there for an extended period. FX: Does the SNB still want a firmer Swiss franc? EUR/CHF goes into the December SNB meeting not far from second-half highs at 0.9900/9950. Recent trading ranges have been relatively subdued after the volatility seen throughout the summer. Interestingly the FX options market seems to be taking a keen interest in the upcoming meeting, where traded volatility for the 15 December event risk has picked up. The FX options market now prices 0.75% moves for EUR/CHF and USD/CHF on the day itself. While the SNB will say that it does not target the exchange rate, earlier this year it had been happy to announce it had backed nominal appreciation in the Swiss franc. And a core piece of communication during this second half has been that the SNB is prepared to intervene on both sides of the market. Historically it had only been happy to sell the Swiss franc as it battled deflation. Its stance on intervention is now more equivocal. As far as we can understand, the SNB’s FX policy now is to keep the real exchange rate stable as it wrestles with above-target inflation. As our chart shows, the real trade-weighted Swiss franc has been relatively stable this year (down 1.5% year-to-date). Given Switzerland’s far lower inflation than trading partners, the real CHF has been kept stable by allowing nominal CHF appreciation (+3.6% YTD). SNB delivers real CHF stability and nominal CHF appreciation Trade-weighted indices Jan 2010 = 100 Source: SNB, ING   Assuming the SNB stays hawkish and wants to keep the real CHF stable, further nominal CHF appreciation is our call in the first half of 2023. The weaker dollar (a 12% weight in the CHF basket) has contributed to some of the nominal CHF appreciation recently. If we are right with our call for a stronger dollar into the first quarter of 2023, and the SNB still wanting to keep the real CHF stable, then a lower EUR/CHF will be the requirement for early next year. That – and the Swiss franc’s defensive properties in a difficult 2023 – are factors behind our forecast for EUR/CHF heading back to the 0.95 area next spring. Read this article on THINK TagsSwitzerland Swiss National Bank SNB CHF Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Week Ahead: The Fed, The ECB And The Bank Of England Will Make The Rate Decision

Raising Policy Rate By The Fed, The ECB, The Bank Of England And The SNB Ahead, China Is Facing A Potential Surge In Cases As COVID Rules

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 10.12.2022 11:47
US Two blockbuster events will have Wall Street on edge as the disinflation trade may have gotten ahead of itself. The last major piece of economic news before the Fed meets will be the November inflation report which is expected to show pricing pressures are decelerating.  The headline reading from a month ago is expected to rise 0.3%, a tick lower from the pace in October.  On a year-over-year basis, inflation is expected to decline from 7.7% to 7.3%. There is still a lot more work that needs to be done with bringing inflation down, but for now, it seems the trend is headed in the right direction.  The FOMC decision will be “Must See TV” as the Fed is expected to downshift to a half-point rate-hiking pace and yet still reiterate that they are not done raising rates.  The Fed will likely show that rates could rise anywhere from 4.75-5.25%, which will be very restrictive and should lead to a quicker cooling of the labor market.   EU  The ECB meeting next week promises to be a defining moment in the bloc’s fight against inflation. It was late to the party, very late in fact, but once it arrived it quickly started playing catch up culminating in a 75 basis point rate hike last week. The belief is that it won’t have to go as far as others in raising rates, with the terminal rate currently believed to be around 3%. That means the central bank is expected to already slow the pace of tightening on Thursday, with a 50 basis point hike, followed by another 100 over the first three meetings in the new year.  It’s not just the decision that investors will be focused on. The press conference and new macroeconomic projections will tell us everything we need to know about where the central bank sees itself in the tightening cycle and whether it is aligned with the markets. UK It’s all going on in the UK next week. The third week of the month brings a variety of major economic indicators including inflation, employment, retail sales, GDP and PMIs. This month has the added spice of the BoE meeting, the central bank that is arguably most stuck between a rock and a hard place among its peers. The economy is suffering and probably already in recession, inflation is 11.1% – although that is expected to drop slightly ahead of the meeting – and the cost-of-living crisis in squeezing those households least able to cope with it most. And yet the BoE is of the belief that the only policy response is to keep hiking rates. Markets expect another 50 basis points on Thursday and a further 100-125 in the first half of next year. The central bank has previously pushed back against market positioning and we may see language to the same effect in the statement, not to mention more dovish dissent.  Russia A week of no change is on the cards, it would appear. The CBR is expected to leave the Key Rate unchanged at 7.5% on Friday, the second consecutive hold after many months of hikes and then cuts following the invasion of Ukraine. On Wednesday, the third quarter GDP reading is also expected to be unchanged at -4% annualized.  South Africa The political environment appears to have cooled a little but President Ramaphosa isn’t necessarily safe yet. The focus will remain on this but there’s also inflation and retail sales data in the middle of the week that will be of interest. Turkey A few notable data releases next week although maybe not anything that will move the needle under the circumstances. Unemployment and industrial production stand out. Switzerland The SNB is expected to raise its policy rate by 50 basis points to 1% next week as it attempts to get a grip of inflation. It’s currently running at 3%, above its target of below 2% and the SNB has been clear in its determination to bring it down.  China China is facing a potential surge in cases as COVID rules are loosened. Following the protests over the zero-Covid policy in several Chinese cities last week, the Chinese government is pivoting its policy.  The elimination of key tenets of its virus elimination plan suggests they will try to learn to live with the virus. It will be a busy and not-so-good week of Chinese economic data. At some point this week we will see the release of aggregate financing, new yuan loans, and money supply data.  On Thursday, industrial production, retail sales, fixed assets, and the surveyed jobless rate will be released, with most expecting a softer print. The PBOC is also expected to hold its 1-year medium-term lending facility rate at 2.75% as volumes (CNY) could decline from 850 billion to 500 billion.     India All eyes will be on the November inflation report which could show a deceleration in pricing pressures coming closer to the upper boundaries of the RBI’s 2-6% target. Given the growth slowdown that is forming, inflation could continue its decline next quarter which should help finish the job of bringing it back to target.  India is also expected to see industrial production drop from 3.1% to -0.6%.   Australia & New Zealand Following the recent RBA rate decision, investors expect the bank to be nearing the end of its tightening cycle.  The focus for Australia now shifts to business conditions/confidence and the labor market.  The Australian economy is expected to add 15,000 jobs, a slower gain than the 32,000 seen in the prior month.   New Zealand’s GDP growth will quickly cool as the latest tourist boom eases. Third quarter GDP on a quarterly basis is expected to soften from 1.7% to 0.8%.   Japan Investors will have to be patient until the spring when the new leadership team has been created. The BOJ policy review could lead to the end of a decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy. The upcoming week is filled with economic data releases. The main highlights include the BOJ’s Tankan report which will show big manufacturers are struggling and non-manufacturing activity got a boost on easing covid rules. The November PPI report will show minimal pricing relief, while the trade deficit is expected to narrow.  The preliminary PMIs could show both manufacturing and service activity are weakening.     Singapore It could be mostly a quiet week for Singapore with the exception of the release of non-oil domestic exports.    Economic Calendar Saturday, Dec. 10 Economic Events The annual Bund Summit continues in Shanghai The International Coffee Organization conference takes place in Vietnam Sunday, Dec. 11 China FDI, Aggregate Financing, Money Supply, and New Yuan loans expected this week Monday, Dec. 12 Economic Data/Events India CPI, industrial production Japan PPI, machine tool orders Kenya GDP New Zealand net migration Mexico industrial production Turkey current account UK industrial production Brazil’s presidential election is expected to be certified Tuesday, Dec. 13 Economic Data/Events US November CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 7.3%e v 7.7% prior Australia consumer confidence, household spending Germany CPI, ZEW survey expectations Hong Kong industrial production, PPI Israel trade Italy industrial production Japan Bloomberg economic survey New Zealand home sales, food prices Philippines trade South Korea money supply Turkey industrial production UK jobless claims, unemployment The Bank of England releases its financial stability report US House Financial Services Committee holds an initial hearing on FTX’s collapse US President Joe Biden hosts the US-Africa Leaders Summit New Zealand’s government releases its half-year economic and fiscal update Wednesday, Dec. 14 Economic Data/Events FOMC Decision: Expected to raise the target range by 50bps to 4.25-4.50% Eurozone industrial production India trade, wholesale prices Japan machinery orders, industrial production Mexico international reserves New Zealand current account GDP ratio, BoP Russia GDP South Africa CPI, retail sales South Korea jobless rate Spain CPI UK CPI EIA crude oil inventory report The European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will celebrate the 45th anniversary of their partnership at a summit in Brussels US Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing on FTX’s collapse The US-Africa Leaders Summit continues with keynote remarks from Biden The Bank of Japan will announce the outright purchase amount of Japanese government securities RBA Gov Lowe delivers an address at the 2022 AusPayNet Annual Summit Thursday, Dec. 15 Economic Data/Events US Retail Sales, cross-border investment, business inventories, empire manufacturing, initial jobless claims, industrial production ECB Rate Decision: Expected to raise Main Refinancing rate by 50bps to 2.50% BOE Rate Decision: Expected to raise rates by 50bps to 3.50% Switzerland rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 50bps to 1.00% Norway rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 2.75% Mexico rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 50bps to 10.50% Australia unemployment, consumer inflation expectation Canada existing home sales, housing starts China medium-term lending, property prices, retail sales, industrial production, surveyed jobless Eurozone new car registrations France CPI Japan tertiary index, trade New Zealand GDP Nigeria CPI Poland CPI Spain trade Friday, Dec. 16 Economic Data/Events US deadline for a new funding deal to avert a federal government shutdown US markets observe “Triple witching”, which is the quarterly event where the expiry of stock and index options occur with those of index futures US preliminary PMIs Australia preliminary PMI readings  European flash PMIs: Eurozone, Germany, UK, and France   Hong Kong jobless rate Italy CPI, trade Japan PMIs, department store sales New Zealand PMI Russia rate decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 7.50% Singapore trade Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts, car sales Bank of Finland Governor Rehn speaks on the Nordic nation’s economy South Africa’s governing party begins its five-yearly elective conference in Johannesburg Sovereign Rating Updates Luxembourg (Moody’s) This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.  
Federal Reserve: Back to 25bp hikes as slowdown fears mount

US CPI & FOMC Decision Will Mark The Week! | The ECB, The Norges Bank, The Swiss National Bank And The BoE Interest Rates Decisons Arrive This Thursday

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 12.12.2022 10:04
Friday’s US PPI print was soft, but not soft enough to meet market expectations. The US dollar spiked following the data, closed the week on a strong footage in America and opened the week on a strong footage in Asia. Trend and momentum indicators turned positive last week, and the dollar could gain more field before two important events that will mark the trading week: US November CPI on Wednesday, and the FOMC decision on Wednesday. Interest rates It's important to remember that there is a gap between what the Fed says it will do, and what the market thinks, and prices the Fed will do, even a tiny hawkish message could already weigh on the mood before Xmas. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Norges Bank are all due to raise interest rates this Thursday, and most of them are expected to follow the Fed with a 50bp hike. How could it impact the euro, sterling and the franc? Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:31 US PPI softened but not enough 1:10 US CPI & FOMC decision will mark the week! 6:15 Then, ECB is expected to hike 50bp 7:26 BoE is expected to hike 50bp 8:36 And SNB is also expected to hike 50bp … but a hawkish Fed statement and the dot plot could boost the USD appetite before Xmas. Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #USD #CPI #inflation #data #FOMC #Fed #ECB #BoE #SNB #rate #decision #EUR #GBP #CHF #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Analysis Of The USD/CHF Pair Movements

The Swiss National Bank Will Hike Interest Rates By 50 bps To 1%

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 14.12.2022 09:09
USD/CHF is oscillating below 0.9300 as investors await Federal Reserve’s policy release for fresh cues. Investors seek policy guidance for CY2023 from the Federal Reserve as an interest rate hike by 50 bps is highly expected. An interest rate hike by 50 bps is expected from the Swiss National Bank to keep inflation near 2%. USD/CHF  is expected to resume its downside journey as technical indicators narrate more weakness ahead. USD/CHF is displaying back-and-forth moves in a narrow range below the critical resistance of 0.9300 in the early European session. The Swiss Franc major asset is manifesting a lackluster performance as investors seek further guidance, which will be provided by the Federal Reserve (Fed) after it will announce its last monetary policy of CY2022 on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a balanced auction profile of around 104.00 after a recovery from a fresh five-month low at 103.59. On Tuesday, the USD Index displayed a perpendicular turmoil after the release of a soft November inflation report. A meaningful decline in the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) dampened safe-haven’s appeal. The US Treasury bonds got decent traction which has led to a fall in 10-year yields below 3.50%. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have extended their upside momentum on Wednesday amid rising hopes of a slowdown in the pace of the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Analysts at JP Morgan Chase & Co. cited that a soft reading in US CPI data could spark a powerful rally in US equities. Continuations of an upside move in the S&P500 futures are portraying a risk appetite theme in the market. While the Swiss Franc is awaiting the monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), scheduled for Thursday, for fresh impetus. Soft US Inflation report cements Fed’s interest rate hike by 50 bps The street was expecting a decline in the US inflationary pressures as the Producers Price Index (PPI) and oil prices remained weak in November. A decline in prices of finished goods at the factory gate by manufacturers is critical for a slowdown in consumer inflation. November’s US PPI reported a drop in headline figures to 7.4% from the former release of 8.0%. The headline CPI has dropped to 7.1% while the core inflation that doesn’t include oil and gas prices tumbled to 6.0%. Weaker prices of gasoline used cars, and airline fares remained major contributors to the lower price rise index. A significant deceleration in US inflation has set the ground for less-hawkish monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Fed policymakers were already advocating for a slowdown in policy tightening pace to reduce financial risks. And, a termination of 75 basis points (bps) rate hike spell looks solid, which will leave the option for a 50 bps rate hike announcement. The Federal Reserve might not choose a 25 bps rate hike as the inflation rate is still extremely diverged from the targeted rate of 2%. Policy guidance for CY2023 from Fed’s Powell a key trigger ahead After a second consecutive decline in the United States monthly inflation report, an interest rate hike announcement by 50 bps seems real. Therefore, investors will keep an eye on monetary policy guidance by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for the entire CY2023. A note from Commerzbank dictates that “The 50 basis points (bps) hike, which is generally expected for tomorrow's FOMC meeting, can be considered almost certain after today's data.” We continue to assume that the Fed will reduce the size of the rate hikes again at the beginning of 2023, moving by only 25 bps in February and March. Swiss National Bank to replicate expected Federal Reserve’s 50 bps move ahead The fourth quarterly monetary policy meeting of the Swiss National Bank is scheduled for Thursday and Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas J. Jordan is expected to hike its interest rate further by 50 bps. A Reuters poll on the Swiss National Bank’s interest rate expectations indicates that the central bank will hike interest rates by 50 bps to 1%. Switzerland’s inflation rate has already dropped from a peak of 3.2% to above 2%. To dodge inflation risks, the Swiss National Bank already shifted its borrowing cost from negative to positive territory for the first time after 2014. Investors also believe that the Swiss National Bank will keep in mind the widening interest rate differential from the European Central Bank (ECB) while drafting monetary policy. USD/CHF technical outlook USD/CHF has shifted into a negative trajectory after a downside break of the declining channel formed on a four-hour scale. The Swiss Franc major asset has dropped sharply after hovering around the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which indicates that the short-term trend has turned bearish. The 200-period EMA at 0.9530 is continuously slopping downwards from the past month, which signifies a bearish long-term trend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is on the verge of slipping into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which will trigger a bearish momentum ahead.     search   g_translate    
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Has Shown That It Is Not Shy About Intervening In The Currency Markets

The Swiss National Bank Is Expected To Hike Another 50bp | The BOJ Could Review Policy Next Year

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 15.12.2022 08:55
Summary:  The FOMC meeting and accompanying economic and Fed Funds projections saw the Fed attempting to bolster its inflation fighting credibility with forecasts of a weaker economy and higher inflation and policy projections than in September. But after some back-and-forth churning, the market decided it was largely a non-event, with very minor shifts in the USD and US yields. Today, we have four more G10 central banks on the menu.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) The market initially took the hawkish FOMC rate and inflation projections at face value last night, plunging sharply, if briefly, before rebounding slightly into the close. The trading ranges for the main indices are generally sandwiched in a narrow zone between important support and resistance. In the case of the S&P 500, the upside range high is clearly marked at just above 4,100, while the downside support level comes in the 3,900-20 area. FX: The USD merely churned around with little conviction on latest hawkish Fed blast The new FOMC monetary policy statement and economic and policy projections (more below) were hawkish as the Fed raised the median policy forecast for the end of next year to above 5%, but after a volatile reaction, traders decided they were unimpressed and the US dollar largely fell back to where it was trading ahead of the meeting as only the shortest part of the yield curve was marked slightly higher in recognition of the Fed’s hawkishness and risk sentiment stabilized. If the market is willing to ignore Fed guidance, what should we expect from the market’s treatment of today’s central bank meetings? Watching USDJPY cycle lows and the 200-day moving average where the pair is sticky (currently near 135.65) and the cycle top in EURUSD just ahead of 1.0700 after yesterday’s stab at posting new highs. Crude oil (CLF3 & LCOG3) Crude oil trades softer ahead of the reopening of a key pipeline in the US and following a strong session on Wednesday where prices found support after the IEA warned that prices may rise next year as sanctions squeeze Russian exports. It expects its output will fall by 14% by the end of the first quarter. It also increased estimates for global demand by 300kb/d, in a nod to China’s reopening and more gas-to-oil switching. Overall crude consumption is expected to rise 1.7mb/d next year to average 101.6mb/d. China’s reopening and a weaker US dollar despite the Fed’s hawkish shift in the dot plot also underpinned prices, while the unexpectedly large 10mb increase in US inventories and signs of slowing demand for gasoline and diesel were shrugged off. Both Brent and WTI are now facing resistance at the 21-day average, at $83.25/b and $77.80/b respectively. Gold (XAUUSD) was little changed after the FOMC raised its terminal rate forecast ... and Fed Chair Powell said the central bank isn’t close to ending its battle against inflation. Supported by ten-year US yields holding steady around 3.5%, the most inverted yield curve in four decades on recession angst and the dollar trading near a six-month low. However, following a 180-dollar rally during the past five weeks and after struggling to break resistance around $1808 this week, the metal increasingly looks ripe for a period of consolidation which may see it drift lower towards $1745, the 38.2% retracement of the run up since early November. A correction of this magnitude may setup an eventual and potential healthier and robust attempt to break higher. US treasury yields underwhelmed by FOMC meeting (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) The FOMC accompanying projection materials saw the Fed projecting significantly higher inflation for 2023 than expected, and a higher median Fed Funds rate projection just north of 5%. This sparked a sharp reaction in Treasury yields, with the 2-year rising more than 10 basis points briefly before sawing that move in half, while the 10-year yield only rose about 5 bps before wilting back just below 3.50%. Incoming data will set to the tone from here as the market was largely unmoved by the Fed’s rather bold rate projections of its policy rate and inflation for 2023 in last night’s FOMC meeting. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM What is going on? FOMC sets the terminal rate forecast at 5.1%, above market expectations The Fed voted unanimously to lift the Federal Funds Rate target by 50bps to 4.25-4.50%, as expected, downshifting the pace of rate hikes. While the statement was broadly unchanged, the updated economic projections showed Fed Funds at 5.125% by December 2023 and core PCE still at 3.5% by that time. That implies 75bps of more tightening in this cycle, which will be seen in 2023, but the markets are still pricing in a peak rate of 4.87%. After that point, the dot plot is far more distributed, but the median projects the Federal Funds Rate target at 4.1% by the end of 2024, suggesting 100bps of rate cuts. Equities did see a negative reaction to the upside surprise in terminal rate projections, but this may remain short-lived as markets remain focused on incoming data. Bond markets had little reaction to the Fed’s updated dot plot. The dollar fell. Australia employment report better-than-expected Australia’s November employment rose 64k, higher than the +19k estimate and more than the revised +43k gains for October. The jobless rate was steady at 3.4% and participation rate came out higher to return to the record highs of 66.8% (vs. estimate 66.6%). The strength in the labor market will continue to provide room to the Reserve Bank of Australia to continue with its modest rate hikes, after it has already downshifted to a smaller rate hike trajectory. New Zealand Q3 GDP comes in above expectations A big positive surprise in NZ Q3 GDP which came in at 2.0% Q/Q sa vs expectations of 0.9% and higher than last quarter’s revised 1.9%. With the possibility of a recession in 2023 highlighted yesterday, this print suggests that there is a substantial amount of work left to be done by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to dampen demand in order to curb inflation. What are we watching next? The Bank of England may remain more divided than the other major central banks The Bank of England is also expected to follow the Fed and the ECB and downshift to a smaller rate hike this week, but the decision will likely see a split vote. A host of key data, including GDP, employment and inflation will be due this week in the run up to the BOE decision, and significant positive surprises could tilt the market pricing more in favour of a larger move which also creates a bigger risk of disappointment from the central bank. Headline annualised inflation advanced to 11.1% Y/Y in October, while the core rate remained at an elevated level of 6.5%. Consensus expects inflation to cool slightly to 10.9% Y/Y in November, but the core to remain unchanged at 6.5% Y/Y. Wage pressures are also likely to be sustained, and the cooling in the labor market will remain gradual. ECB is also likely to downshift to a smaller rate hike The European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to slow down its pace of rate hikes to a 50bps increase this week. Headline inflation eased slightly in November, coming in at 10.0% YoY (exp. 10.4%) but was overshadowed by an unexpected rise in core inflation of 6.6% YoY (exp. 6.3%, prev. 6.4%). While there is likely to remain some split in ECB members at this week’s meeting, the central bank’s Chief Economist Lane remains inclined to take into account the scale of tightening done so far. There is also uncertainty on the announcement of quantitative tightening. Bank of Japan policy review speculation gathers further pace Some reports suggested that the BOJ could review policy next year, after pay growth and any slowdown in the global economy are closely examined. The results of spring wage negotiations come in mid-March, after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's final policy meeting, so an assessment would probably be done after he departs. The review could reaffirm the existing ultra-loose framework, but possibility of some tweaks to the yield curve control policy remains as inflationary pressures remain a concern. Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank also up this morning The Swiss National Bank is expected to hike another 50 basis points, taking its policy rate to 1.00%, with little anticipation of pointed guidance coming into this meeting as Swiss inflation has peaked at 3.50% for the cycle and was 3.0% for the most recent print. The Norges Bank, meanwhile, seems more interested in signaling that policy tightening is set to cease and may indicate that today’s expected 25 basis point hike to 2.75% could be the last for now as it is concerned about weakness in the “mainland” (non-oil & gas) economy after the worst Regions Survey outlook since the global financial crisis. Earnings to watch The big name reporting today is Adobe Inc., the former high-flyer that trade north of 700 before rolling over to below 300 on the rise in interest rates and as its steady pace of top-line growth decelerated in recent quarters. The stock closed yesterday at 339. Many highly-valued growth stocks have been extremely sensitive to both execution for the current quarter and revenue expectations for the coming quarter, so traders should brace for this earnings report after market hours today. Today: Adobe Friday: Accenture, Darden Restaurants Read next: From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level | FXMAG.COM Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0830 – Switzerland SNB Policy Rate Announcement 0900 – Switzerland SNB press conference 0900 – Norway Norges Bank Deposit Rate announcement 1200 – UK Bank of England Rate Announcement 1315 – Eurozone ECB Rate Announcement 1315 – Canada Nov. Housing Starts 1330 – US Dec. Empire Manufacturing 1330 – US Nov. Retail Sales 1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1330 – US Dec. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 1345 – Eurozone ECB Press Conference 1415 – US Nov. Industrial Production 1530 – EIA's Natural Gas Storage Change 1900 – Mexico Rate Announcement 0001 – UK Dec. GfK Consumer Confidence Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source:Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – December 15, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Week Ahead: The Fed, The ECB And The Bank Of England Will Make The Rate Decision

The European Central Bank (ECB), The Bank Of England (BoE) And The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Are Also Expected To Hike The Rates By 50bp

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 15.12.2022 10:46
As expected, the Fed raised its interest rates by 50bp to 4.25/4.50% range, the dot plot showed that the Fed officials’ median forecast for the peak Fed rate rose to 5.1%. Forecasts Plus, the distribution of rate forecasts skewed higher, with 7 officials out of 19 predicting that the rates could rise above 5.25%. Moreover, the inflation forecast for next year was revised higher DESPITE the latest decline in inflation. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM And the median rate forecast for 2024 was revised higher to 4.1%. In summary, the FOMC message was very clear: the Fed is not ready to stop hiking rates - even though they will be hiking by smaller chunks. Today's decisions Today, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) are also expected to hike the rates by 50bp to tame inflation in Europe. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:36 Powell dashes dovish Fed hopes 2:40 Stocks fell, and could fall lower 4:30 USD gained, but may not gain much 5:33 ECB to hike by 50bp 7:27 BoE to hike by a dovish 50bp 8:50 SNB to hike by 50bp, as well! But a 50bp hike is not the same for all, as they don’t have the same inflation levels! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. Read next: From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level | FXMAG.COM #ECB #BoE #FOMC #Fed #SNB #rate #decision #dotplot #USD #EUR #GBP #CHF #CPI #inflation #growth #forecasts #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Has Shown That It Is Not Shy About Intervening In The Currency Markets

The SNB will want further nominal appreciation in 2023

ING Economics ING Economics 15.12.2022 12:27
  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised its key rate by 50bp as expected, bringing the total monetary tightening to 175bp. The upward revision of medium-term inflation forecasts signals a further rate hike in March A 50bp hike As widely expected, the SNB decided to raise its key rate by 50bp to 1% – following the 75bp increase in September and the 50bp increase in June – to combat the spread of inflationary pressures. The total monetary tightening in Switzerland will therefore have been 175bp in 2022, compared with probably 250bp in the eurozone and 425bp in the United States over the same period. The SNB also indicated that it is prepared to continue to be active in the foreign exchange market. In recent months, the SNB has sold foreign currencies, which has helped to strengthen the appreciation of the Swiss franc and limit imported inflation.  Read next: From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level | FXMAG.COM Inflation expectations are above the medium-term target After years of fighting deflation with a very accommodating monetary policy, the SNB remains very uncomfortable with the current level of inflation, despite the stabilisation at 3%, down from the peak of 3.5% reached in August. It believes that "inflation remains well above the range that the SNB equates with price stability", which is between 0% and 2%, and that "while developments are pleasing, it is too early to let our guard down". Thanks to a more favourable energy mix, a lower share of energy in consumption, and above all the appreciation of the Swiss franc, which limits imported inflation, inflation in Switzerland is nevertheless much lower than in neighbouring countries. That said, the SNB considers that the risk of second-round effects is still present, which is why "it cannot be ruled out that further rate hikes will be necessary to ensure price stability in the medium term". The SNB's inflation forecast shows inflation at 2.1% at the end of its forecast horizon, the third quarter of 2025. It believes that "increased inflationary pressure from abroad and the spread of price increases to the various categories of goods and services in the consumer price index will push this forecast higher in the medium term". The SNB now expects inflation to average 2.9% in 2022, 2.4% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024. These above-target inflation forecasts for the end of the forecast horizon signal that the SNB is not done with monetary tightening. We believe that a further 50bp rate hike could take place at the next meeting in March 2023, taking the rate to 1.5%. Rates will then remain stable for an extended period. Indeed, we expect price growth to decelerate gradually but slowly over the year. This will make it more comfortable for the SNB to intervene in the foreign exchange market afterwards, without changing the interest rate further. FX: SNB confirms it has been selling FX reserves recently In today’s communication, SNB President Thomas Jordan confirmed that the SNB had been intervening in FX markets to sell FX over recent months. This has got nothing to do with the SNB wanting to downsize its FX reserves for financial stability reasons, but everything to do with monetary policy. Here Jordan confirmed that a stronger Swiss franc has helped ensure that less inflation has been imported from abroad. This is all in keeping with this year’s policy of wanting to keep the real Swiss franc stable. To achieve that – and given that Swiss inflation is substantially lower than that overseas – the SNB requires nominal Swiss franc appreciation. The SNB confirmed the nominal franc has appreciated 4% this year. Read next: Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%| FXMAG.COM On the assumption that inflation differentials between Switzerland and its trading partners do not immediately narrow, we assume that the SNB will want further nominal appreciation in 2023. The big question is through which channels this occurs. The recent sharp fall in USD/CHF has taken the pressure off the EUR/CHF axis to make the adjustment. But if we are right with our call for the dollar to strengthen into the first quarter of 2023, then EUR/CHF will have to come lower – helped in part by SNB intervention. Our call is that EUR/CHF continues to struggle to hold any gains over 0.99 and heads back to the 0.95 area into next spring. Read this article on THINK TagsSwitzerland SNB Inflation CHF Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The USD/CHF Pair Is Likely To Decline More

Switzerland: National Bank goes for a 50bps rate hike. Swiss inflation slowdown is impressing

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 15.12.2022 13:18
The Swiss National Bank raised its rate by 50 points to 1.0% after two hikes of 50 and 75 points at the previous two meetings. In an accompanying commentary, the NBS said it was countering rising inflationary pressures. In the commentary, the central bank says that "further rate hikes are not ruled out". This is a milder formulation than other G10 central banks without Japan. However, the exact phrase was in the two previous decision comments, so we cannot speak of a softening tone in this case. At the recent and previous meetings, the step-up was the same as for our colleagues from the Fed and the ECB: now by 0.5 percentage points, in September by 0.75. However, remember that SNB meetings are twice as rare, so Swiss policy tightening is less drastic. For the year Swiss central bank raised the rate by 175 points against 250 points for the ECB (including the expected +50 today), 340 (also including the forthcoming decision) for the Bank of England and 425 for the Fed. Read next: Vietnamese Warehouse Equipment Maker Sues Amazon, Musk once again sold Tesla shares, Warner Bros. Discovery Inc Has Problems With High Costs| FXMAG.COM On the other hand, inflation is not as acute here, having retreated from a peak of 3.5% y/y to 3.0% in the last three months. The producer and import price index retreated to 3.8% y/y in November from 6.9% in June. Historically, Switzerland has comparatively lower inflation which is the reason for the lower key rate. Therefore, the current slower pace of monetary policy tightening is not likely to fundamentally undermine the Swiss franc. By playing up the divergence in the speed of rate hikes, the USDCHF could develop a rebound without encountering significant resistance to 0.9400, which looks like a very modest pullback after a more than 9% decline since November 3.
US stocks gain on hopes of a softer inflation print released later today

Nasdaq decreased thanks to central banks hawkishness, so does Kiwi

Jing Ren Jing Ren 16.12.2022 08:31
USDCHF attempts to bottom out The Swiss franc retreated after the SNB raised its policy interest rate by 50 basis points as expected. On the daily chart, the US counterpart is testing last April’s lows near 0.9220 after giving up all gains from the most part of this year. As the RSI shows a bullish divergence in this demand zone, bargain hunters have scooped the bottom but the mood is too cautious to warrant a reversal yet. 0.9380 is the first hurdle ahead and its breach would ease the downward pressure. Failing that, the dollar could tank below 0.9220. NZDUSD drifts lower The New Zealand dollar slipped after the Fed stressed on keeping the interest rates high for longer. The kiwi’s break above the August high of 0.6460 has helped improve sentiment. Now the bulls will need to consolidate their foothold before they could push higher. A fall below the origin of the latest bullish candle suggests a lack of follow-through, and in conjunction with signs of overextension from the overbought RSI, may prompt buyers to take profit. 0.6300 is the closest support and 0.6460 a fresh resistance. NAS 100 breaks major support The Nasdaq 100 plunged as global central banks' hawkishness rattled investors. The choppy price action was due to multiple catalysts this week and layers of resistance from last September’s sell-off. The most recent rally reversed its course at 12200, a support-turned-resistance from mid-September. A breach of the lower end (11500) of the consolidation confirmed a lack of buying interest and might cause a test of the origin of a previous bullish breakout at 11150. As the RSI goes oversold, 11800 is a fresh hurdle in case of a bounce.
Analysis Of The USD/CHF Pair Movements

Even if Switzerland's 3% inflation is quite low, it's still above the target

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 16.12.2022 16:45
SNB raises rates by 50 bp, Swiss franc rises Major central banks were in the spotlight this week, as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised rates by 50 basis points at their final meeting of the year. These moves overshadowed a 50 bp rate increase by the Swiss National Bank, where rate moves are unusual – this week’s rate increase, which brought the benchmark rate to 1.0%, was only the third hike this year. The driver behind the rate hike was the all-familiar battle to curb inflation. Switzerland’s inflation rate of 3% pales in comparison to the eurozone (10.0%) or the US (7.1%), but is above the SNB’s target of 0-2%. The SNB has been aggressive, raising rates by 50 bp in June and an oversize 75-bp hike in September. After years of negative rates, the Bank has dramatically changed policy, responding to what it called a “challenging situation” in a press release after the meeting. The SNB also reminded the markets that it was “willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary”.  The Bank has not hesitated in the past to intervene in order to prevent the Swiss franc from climbing too high and damaging the export sector. USD/CHF has declined over 7% since November 1st, and the SNB will be watching to see if the Swiss franc’s appreciation continues. Read next: The Cable Market (GBP/USD) Held Back Bearish Enthusiasm, The ECB President Christine Lagarde Gave Support To The Euro| FXMAG.COM The markets are still digesting the Fed’s hawkish stance at this week’s meeting. Actually, anyone who has been listening to Jerome Powell and FOMC members would see that the Fed reiterated that it would continue to raise rates and that inflation remained far too high. The markets, however, have been marching to their own beat, expecting that a series of soft inflation reports might change the Fed’s tune. There was talk of the Fed winding up its current rate cycle in February, but the rate statement dampened such hopes, stating that the Fed expected “”ongoing increases” in interest rates.” Powell dismissed the recent drop in inflation, saying more evidence was required that the downward trend was sustainable. It seems a given after this hawkish meeting that the terminal rate is likely to rise above 5%, with some forecasts projecting that rates will go as high as 5.6%. USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.9285. The next resistance line is at 0.9372 There is support at 0.9228 and 0.9144   This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Swiss franc reverses slide after SNB hike - MarketPulseMarketPulse
Traders assume interest rates in Japan and Switzerland could steadily go up next year

Traders assume interest rates in Japan and Switzerland could steadily go up next year

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 19.12.2022 23:12
The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Australia and New Zealand, as well as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada, are among others the central banks of the world's major economies that have already begun the cycle of interest rate hikes and are possibly to be close to completing it in the first or second quarter of 2023. In contrast, the situation seems to be different for the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Switzerland. We could see quite well how monetary policy could affect currency rates in 2022. The Fed, by starting aggressive monetary tightening, was able to make the U.S. dollar more attractive thanks to the higher interest rates its holders received. The Fed started the cycle, and the European Central Bank followed suit with some time lag. For the moment, this lag is estimated to be about six months. This could mean that the ECB will not complete its monetary tightening until two quarters later, after the Fed has done so. The effects of this shift could be observed in the EUR/USD exchange rate. Source: Conotoxia MT5, EURUSD, H4 The unprecedented pace of rate hikes in the U.S. may have helped the dollar until September, October, when discussions began about slowing the pace of USD interest rate increases. At that time, there was also discussion of what direction the European Central Bank should take, which for the moment is declaring hikes of 50 bps each and higher rates than the market had previously expected (>3%). What about the CHF and JPY? The above description may approximate the events in central banking in relation to the exchange rate where, if one theme ends (the near end of rate hikes in the US), the game begins for the next one (the later and higher end of the cycle in the Eurozone). According to data from the interest rate market, traders seem to assume that interest rates in Japan and Switzerland could go steadily upward in 2023. This, in turn, could mean that once the U.S. theme, then the eurozone, is over, the markets could move into the tightening game in countries with previously lowest interest rates in the world. Change in rhetoric in Japan, how does the yen exchange rate react? This morning, the Japanese yen strengthened 0.6% to 135.8 per USD after reports that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to revise a 10-year agreement with the Bank of Japan, which says the central bank will reach a 2% inflation target "at the earliest possible time." The government is seeking to make the price target more flexible, which could broaden the BOJ's policy options for adjusting to economic developments. BNP Paribas Japan's chief credit strategist Mana Nakazora, a potential candidate for deputy governor of the Bank of Japan next year, also told Reuters recently that the central bank should revise its statement to give itself more room to adjust interest rates, according to tradingeconomics. The bottom line is that interest rate hike cycles seem to be staggered in different economies around the world. As a result, currency rates may also react accordingly with some time lag. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75,21% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Source: Japanese yen and Swiss franc - currencies of 2023? (conotoxia.com)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Has Shown That It Is Not Shy About Intervening In The Currency Markets

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Has Shown That It Is Not Shy About Intervening In The Currency Markets

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 28.12.2022 14:08
Market activity is subdued on Wednesday in thin post-holiday trade. In the European session, USD/CHF is almost trading at 0.9280, down 0.14%. Over the final two months of the year, the Swiss franc has looked sharp against the US dollar. USD/CHF tumbled 5.6% in November and is down another 1.6% in December. The pair fell as low as 0.9215 on December 14th, its lowest level since April. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is keeping a close eye on the appreciation of the Swiss franc, as this makes Swiss exports more expensive. The SNB has shown that it is not shy about intervening in the currency markets if it believes that the Swissie exchange rate is too high. The SNB has joined the global tightening party in 2022, raising interest rates into positive territory after years of sub-zero rates. The SNB delivered an oversize rate of 0.50% earlier this month, bringing the cash rate to 1.00%. The central bank had an accommodative monetary policy in place for years in order to combat deflation. In the new era of rising inflation, the SNB has switched gears, with 175 basis points of tightening this year. Switzerland’s inflation rate of 3% is much lower than in the eurozone, but this is above the SNB’s target of 0-2%. At the December meeting, the SNB said it would not rule out further tightening, which will largely depend on inflation forecasts. If inflation does not ease, there is a strong likelihood of another rate hike in March. ZEW Economic Expectations climbs It’s a very light calendar this week in Switzerland, with just two events. Earlier today, ZEW Economic Expectations showed a strong improvement with a reading of -42.8 in December, up from -57.5 in November and above the consensus of -50.5 points. This is a step in the right direction, but the latest reading was the 10th straight in negative territory. On Friday, we’ll get a look at the KOF Economic Barometer, which has been on a downturn. The consensus stands at 86.9 for December, following 89.5 in November.  Read next: The Optimism Around China Easing Of Covid Protocols Has Cool Down, The Aussie Pair Is Trading Near 0.68| FXMAG.COM USD/CHF Technical USD/CHF is putting pressure on support at 0.9256. Below, there is support at 0.9159 There is resistance at 0.9377 and 0.9498 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Source: https://www.marketpulse.com/20221228/swiss-franc-showing-strength/    
USD/JPY Pair Remains Priced As One Of The Most Volatile Currencies

The Last Dovish Central Bank (Bank Of Japan) Finally Caved To Market Pressure

Franklin Templeton Franklin Templeton 14.01.2023 09:47
Latest thoughts on global central bank policy (continued) Growing more cautious In a period of extreme market volatility due to the political turmoil originated by the mini-budget announcement in September, later scaled down by the new government, the BoE had to hike by 125 bps over the past two meetings, bringing the policy rate to 3.5% in December. Although the last 50-bp move was anticipated, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote was a dovish surprise with two members voting for no change. The policy calibration will be set on a meeting-by-meeting approach with a particular focus on wage developments and the persistence of domestic price pressures they are likely causing. The burden of proof is thus on data and a faster-than-expected weakening in the labor market, which could lead to a slowdown in tightening going forward. Internal divisions within the MPC will deepen as the United Kingdom is expected to enter a recession. We now expect a terminal rate of 4.5% with one more 50-bp increase in February, although the policy path will be more data dependent than before, and  two more 25-bp hikes in March and May. After the delayed start due to abrupt moves in long dated gilts (UK government bonds) in the wake of the mini-budget, active quantitative tightening began in November without further complications. Close to peak rate After having slowed down its pace of hiking to 25 bps in November, Norges further hiked its policy rate to 2.75% in December. Despite data coming in on the hawkish side, the deceleration of tightening stemmed from a more careful calibration as some signs of transmission to the real economy became visible. Although the labor market remains tight and wage growth resilient, vacancies and labor shortages are decreasing, and house prices are falling faster than anticipated. The expected policy path was revised downward in the long end and now anticipates some cuts from 2024 onwards. As Norges Bank was the first central bank to embark on its hiking cycle (in September 2021), it will likely be the first to end it, but the hawkish indications from the Fed and ECB on the length of the cycle might add some pressure down the line. We still expect a peak rate of 3.25% by May, acknowledging downside risks to the call. Attentive calibration going forward With fewer meetings scheduled compared to regional and global peers, the Riksbank hiked by 175 bps over the last two meetings to a 2.5% repurchase (repo) rate. Going forward, a quickly deteriorating housing market and hawkish pressures from other central banks will require a delicate balancing act. Sweden’s interest-rate sensitivity is enhanced by a leveraged household sector, which will be hit by increasing interest expenses, limiting the upside for rates as house prices are already plummeting.  On the other hand, the clear hawkish ECB message will challenge the historical interest-rate differential premium between the two. We expect another 50-bp hike in February, while a further 25 bps in March  will depend on the most recent inflation and housing developments. The rate path uncertainty remains particularly high also due to two new board members, including the Governor Erik Thedéen. As the Riksbank previously announced, it will cease quantitative easing (QE) reinvestments this year and it expects the balance sheet to shrink relatively fast compared to other central banks. Slows pace of hiking, signals more tightening in the pipeline   The SNB slowed the pace of tightening at its December meeting with a 50-bp increase. With this third hike, the Bank has lifted its policy rate by a cumulative 175 bps since the tightening process began in June 2022—the fastest increase since 2000. The bank has also signaled that additional hikes cannot be ruled out just yet. While the SNB’s decision to hike in March will likely be guided by its evaluation of  the Swiss franc’s value in the coming months, we also note that the SNB’s inflation forecasts remain broadly unchanged since its September meeting. This suggests that not only does the central bank not believe that the policy rate is high enough to slow down inflation, but it also does not yet consider its policy to be restrictive given that inflation is likely to re-accelerate in late-2024. Therefore, while our base case is for a 25-bp hike, if the franc continues to hold well until the March meeting, the SNB could opt  to stay on hold. The SNB has also vowed to remain active on the foreign exchange market, with Chairman Thomas Jordan even confirming the SNB had sold foreign currency in recent months. Surprise, surprise!  In a surprise move, the BoJ tweaked its Yield Curve Control (YCC) framework at its December policy meeting, widening the band for 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGB) yields to move from 25 bps to 50 bps around its 0.0% target. While making it amply clear that this change was neither tightening nor  an exit from its accommodative policy, it does signal that even the last dovish central bank finally caved to market pressure. If the move’s sole intent was to smooth market conditions, we cannot rule out further tweaks. However, for a sustained pivot to a tightening stance, the central bank will need to continue to keep an eye on the inflation-growth mix. While growth is holding up well as the economy opens and supply chain pressures ease, inflation is becoming more entrenched. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November touched 3.7%, the highest in four decades and well above the 2% target. We will continue to monitor the evolution of price pressures in Japan to predict a clear tightening move, including wage pressures and services inflation. For now, we remain more bullish on inflationary pressures in 2023 and a likely pivot in 2023.   Source: cbw-0123-u.pdf (widen.net)
The Bank Of England Is Likely To See One Or Two More Rate Hikes In The First Half Of The Year

P&G Sales Fell 6% In Q4, In UK Bailey Thinks That They Turned A Corner In Inflation

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 20.01.2023 10:55
Netflix added nearly 7.7 million new subscribers last quarter versus only around 4.5 mio expected by the market. The share popped almost 10% higher in the afterhours trading. Netflix The results have been a relief for Netflix, but it will hardly reverse the fading optimism, as the S&P500 traded lower for the third straight day, having failed to clear a very critical resistance zone, above 4000 level, where the 200-DMA, and the ceiling of the 2022 bearish trend prevented investors from extending the rally into a new, bullish era, with no major justification on the company, or macroeconomic level. P&G hasn’t been as lucky as Netflix.  In this sense, P&G hasn’t been as lucky as Netflix. Their sales fell 6% in Q4, after they raised prices 10%. Price increases for P&G products may have hit a critical point where customers are no longer willing to pay for them.Elsewhere, US jobless claims fell below 200’000 for the first time since last September, and the US reached its debt ceiling yesterday, and began using special measures to avoid a payments default. Forex In the FX, the US dollar index remains under pressure. The dollar-yen is better bid despite the data showing that inflation in Japan hit 4% in December, as expected. The EURUSD remains bid below the 1.08 level, while Cable continues flirting with the 1.24 mark. Oil, gold and Bitcoin Oil is stuck between 50 and 100-DMA, gold ticks higher despite overbought market conditions, while Bitcoin rally slows near $21.5K. Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:54 Netflix beats 2:59 P&G deceives 3:50 Early-year optimism fades 5:18 US hits debt ceiling 6:22 Where does Bailey finds so much optimism? 7:40 ECB and SNB hint at further rate hikes 8:23 Crude oil between 50, 100-dma 8:35 Gold pushes deeper into overbought market 8:54 Bitcoin rally stalls Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Netflix #P&G #earnings #us #debt #ceiling #Japan #inflation #English #Breakfast #index #USD #EUR #GBP #JPY #crude #oil #gold #Bitcoin #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  
Saxo Bank Podcast: Crude Oil Plunging To New Lows, Focus On Bank Of Canada Meeting And More

Rate Cuts Are Not On The Horizon Any Time Soon, Only The Bank Of Canada Appears To Have Already Ended Its Tightening Cycle

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.01.2023 09:57
Major central banks to bring hike cycles to a close We think that the aforementioned easing in inflation rates should herald an end to interest rate hikes for most of the major central banks in the first half of 2023. We think that the Federal Reserve will be done raising rates after its March meeting. At its final meeting of the year in December, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took its first baby steps towards ending its aggressive interest rate hike cycle, delivering a 50bp rate hike following four consecutive 75bp moves. In its ‘dot plot’, committee members indicated that an additional 75 basis points of hikes may be on the way this year, though futures are only pricing in 50. The key message was that rate cuts are not on the horizon any time soon, and are not expected until 2024. In our view, both the European Central Bank and Bank of England will follow suit in ending their respective hiking cycles in mid-2023. The ECB was the most hawkish of the three major central banks in December, as it announced a start date for quantitative tightening, while President Lagarde warned that multiple additional 50bp rate increases may be on the horizon. Meanwhile, we have little doubt that the Bank of England will continue to confuse markets this year, a hallmark of its communications in 2022. The BoE also raised rates by 50bps during its final meeting of the year, although the three-way voting split among MPC members provided little clarity to investors. We believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia, Swiss National Bank, Riksbank and Norges Bank may only have one or two more hikes left in them, while the Bank of Canada appears to have already ended its tightening cycle. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to be the most active central bank in the G10 in 2023, with markets finally beginning to price in a long-awaited rate hike from the Bank of Japan in the second half of the year. On the whole, most emerging market central banks are slightly ahead of their major counterparts and, for some, attention may soon turn to the timing of interest rate cuts. For many developing economies, inflation has, however, become deeply entrenched, and that may ensure higher rates for longer, a delayed pick-up in economic activity and a higher risk of default. Global downturns on the way? As inflation rates begin to trend lower, and central banks globally press pause on their hiking cycles, attention among market participants will increasingly turn towards the possibility of recessions. We have already seen signs of a deterioration in most indicators of economic activity. The G3 business activity PMIs, which provide the most timely gauge of growth in the services and manufacturing sectors, have printed below the level of 50 representing contraction. Indicators of consumer, business and investor sentiment have declined, as have a number of barometers of consumer spending activity. Generally speaking, we think that downturns in 2023 will be rather mild, and we’ve not seen any evidence in the data just yet that would indicate sharp recessions are on the way. We see a number of reasons to be optimistic about the global economic outlook, and believe that the pending downturns in activity won’t be as bad as currently expected by markets: Energy crisis fallout set to be limited. Natural gas prices have eased sharply, as shortages of natural gas appear unlikely this winter. Supply chains are normalising. Freight rates have declined almost back to pre-covid levels, with the impact of the war in Ukraine set to be less onerous in 2023. Inflation appears to be peaking in a handful of economic areas, as are interest rates. Labour markets are strong, characterised by very low unemployment rates, high job vacancies and solid nominal earnings growth. As of yet, we have seen little signs of a deterioration in labour market conditions. Households are well placed to withstand high prices, particularly given the extent of government support (fiscal policy remains supportive with no tightening in sight) and high savings accumulated during lockdowns. China is moving away from its zero-COVID policy. The country continues to lift its draconian restrictions as it prepares its society for living with the virus. In our view, the end to central bank interest rates hikes, and the possibility that downturns in global activity won’t be as bad as currently anticipated, provide a conducive environment for an appreciation in high-risk currencies. In anticipation of a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve, the US dollar has shed around 8.5% of its value since its September peak. We think that this move has more room to run, and we are pencilling in advances in most currencies against the dollar, notably emerging markets, which we think remain broadly undervalued. The extent of these moves will likely depend on the resilience of economies to the pending downturn, and the timing of when central banks globally will both end their tightening cycles and begin cutting interest rates. 2022 was a highly volatile year in the foreign exchange market, and we suspect that 2023 will prove much the same. Written by: Enrique Diaz-Alvarez, Matthew Ryan (CFA), Roman Ziruk, Itsaso Apezteguia, Eduardo Moutinho, MichaÅ‚ Jóźwiak – Ebury’s Market Analysts

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Given the peculiarities of the US labor market and the high labor mobility, the acceptable unemployment rate is considered to be 5.0%
Aleksandr Davidov
AleksandrDavidov
From the fundamental point of view, these facts may become a game changer, sending the EUR/USD pair to the parity level
Aleksandr Davidov
FranklinTempleton
According to Franklin Templeton global stocks' performance may be better than global bonds
Franklin Templeton
INGEconomics
Did you know that in October average gas price was 4.3 times higher than in 2019?
ING Economics
IpekOzkardeskaya
Fed Chair Powell bears in mind inflation prints, but they seem to be insufficient for FOMC
Ipek Ozkardeskaya
IntertraderMarket News
Tesla (TSLA) sank a further 2.58% after Goldman Sachs lowered its price target on the stock
Intertrader Market News
CraigErlam
European Central Bank is expected to go for a less hawkish hike, but economic projections may be worth even more attention
Craig Erlam
AlexKuptsikevich
Switzerland: National Bank goes for a 50bps rate hike. Swiss inflation slowdown is impressing
Alex Kuptsikevich
INGEconomics
Analysts expect ECB to deliver two 50bps hikes in the first quarter with a chance of one more in Q2
ING Economics
INGEconomics
Sterling to euro exchange rate is expected to hit 0.89 in the first quarter of 2023
ING Economics
Crypto.comAccelerate the...
There is a chance Apple may let users install apps from outside the App Store boosting NFT
Crypto.com Accelerate the...
CraigErlam
Craig Erlam talks euro against US dollar amid central banks decisions
Craig Erlam
IntertraderMarket News
Netflix (NFLX) slumped 8.63%, as a media report said the video streaming firm is refunding advertisers after missing views targets
Intertrader Market News
GecoOne
Geco.one COO says Bitcoin reaching $250K in 2023 is considered as impossible by other analysts as BTC does not exceed $60,000
Geco One
EnriqueDíaz-Álvarez
Bank of England decision wasn't unanimous as one member voted for a 75bp hike with two other opting for inaction
Enrique Díaz-Álvarez
INGEconomics
Indonesia is the world's 6th largest bauxite producer. Country bans commodity export from June 2023
ING Economics
InstaForexAnalysis
Gold supported by, among others, changes on Japanese bond market, may end the year trading at a 4-month high
InstaForex Analysis
DanielKostecki
China reopens, Texas freezes - crude oil has to face contrasting factors
Daniel Kostecki
IntertraderMarket News
European stocks closed mixed. The DAX 40 fell 0.50%, the CAC 40 declined 0.61%, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.32%
Intertrader Market News
IpekOzkardeskaya
China's reopening seems to be a double-edged sword as energy and commodities prices will go up
Ipek Ozkardeskaya
INGEconomics
Auto production and general machinery increased significantly. South Korea Industrial Production as a whole gained 0.4%
ING Economics