The ECB Interest Rate Decision - Met Market Expectations

The Markets Still Hope That The Fed May Consider Softer Decision


  • ECB policy rate decision.
  • ECB met interest rate expectations.

ECB Decision Met Expectations

The ECB on Thursday hiked interest rates by 75bps - meeting market expectations. Deposit Facility rate of the ECB exceeded market expectations, by 25bps, coming in at a 75bps rate hike.

ECB Interest rate Decision

The European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcement on Thursday may have some potential effects on the foreign exchange market, according to a "crib sheet" published by ING Bank. The market is anticipating a 75 basis point increase as the ECB looks to take swift action against inflation before the Eurozone's growth slows and a recession takes hold. However, ING economists believe that the market is mistaken in using 75 basis points, which might be the day's first significant source of volatility for the Euro.

"Policymakers in Frankfurt will likely have to choose between a 50bp or 75bp rate hike this week. We think that a 75bp move would be too hard to digest for the dovish front within the Governing Council, and our call is for a 50bp move," says Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange strategist at ING.

According to ING's base case scenario, a 50bp would fall short of market expectations, causing the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) to decline. In this base scenario, the ECB also projects weaker growth rates for the Eurozone, anticipating a wintertime recession. While high inflation will continue, it will start to decline over the outlook horizon, according to ECB predictions.

If the ECB took an even more "dovish" posture, they would raise interest rates by 25 basis points as they assessed the severity of the impending economic slowdown, which would be reflected in their revised GDP projections. Inflation forecasts that indicate prices drop down to the 2.0% target over the forecast horizon would also be part of this dovish scenario. According to this call, the EUR/USD is expected to trade close to 0.96. However, the ECB will be keenly aware of the effects their decisions will have on the Euro because a weak Euro itself is an inflationary phenomenon because it drives up the price of importing commodities. This is especially detrimental during a crisis brought on by high gas and oil import prices.


The Markets Still Hope That The Fed May Consider Softer Decision

Rebecca Duthie

Remote Editor and writer Intern

Rebecca has a bachelors degree in Investment Management, a Post Graduate Diploma in Financial Planning and is currently enrolled in a Masters program in International Management with a Specialization in International Finance.