- ECB may turn more hawkish.
- The US economic downturn may have increased in August.
EUR/USD still below parity
The market is reflecting mixed sentiment for this currency pair. Will the European Central Bank (ECB) adopt a more hawkish stance this week given the pressure the Euro is still under and its recent breach of parity with the dollar? For the meeting on September 8th, the market anticipates a 54 bp rate increase. If the ECB wants to support the EUR/USD, may it start talking about the possibility of more drastic rate increases? Joachim Nagel, the head of the Bundesbank said, “Given high inflation, further interest-rate hikes must follow,the past few months have shown that we have to decide on monetary policy from meeting to meeting.”
Investment firm Nomura's strategists have increased their confidence in a wager that the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is likely to experience a few "large figure" movements below parity.
EUR/USD Price Chart
EUR/GBP currency pair
The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. In August, the UK economy grew, according to a closely-followed assessment of activity. Although consumers and businesses were struggling with rising inflation levels, the monthly S&P Global PMI series did reveal a slowdown in activity continued. Looking ahead, the trend is consistent with negative growth. The Euro is under pressure from the Eruozone energy crisis as market participants are expecting further interest rate hikes from the ECB.
EUR/GBP Price Chart
The release of data on Tuesday that suggested that the U.S. economy's downturn may have increased in August caused the Dollar to revert in value relative to the Euro and the British Pound. The service PMI score for the U.S. economy was 44.1, much below the 49.2 markets had projected and the 47.3 from July, according to S&P Global's PMI survey. According to S&P Global, the output decline was the sharpest since May 2020 and was the fastest since the first pandemic outbreak since the series' start almost 13 years ago. The numbers indicate that despite elevated inflation and rising interest rates at the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy is slowing down. Another indication of a slowdown may dampen investor expectations for the amount of interest rate increases the Fed is prepared to make in the upcoming months, at least from the standpoint of the currency market. Cooling rate hike expectations can cause bond rates to fall, which is negative for the U.S. dollar.
EUR/USD Price Chart
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com