SEK: Enjoying a Breather as Technical Factors Drive Correction

SEK: Enjoying a Breather as Technical Factors Drive Correction

SEK: Enjoying a breather

The Swedish krona is emerging as an outperformer this week without any clear domestic driver justifying its strength against peers. EUR/SEK had risen above 11.90 and eyed 12.00, reaching new highs last week, and we suspect this week’s correction is primarily technically driven.

News on the troubled landlord SBB continues to worry investors, although at these levels, SEK is pricing in quite a good deal of domestic risks. Incidentally, the housing market has shown signs of stabilisation, which might leave slightly wider manoeuvring room for the Riksbank to deal with high inflation.

Keep a close eye on today’s Nvidia quarterly results. SEK is generally the most correlated G10 currency with US tech stocks. A disappointment on that side could trigger another EUR/SEK rally, even though some EUR softness is now helping put a cap on the pair. For the moment, a break above 12.00 is not our baseline scenario, and we see instead greater chances of a gradual – although bumpy – decline in the pair into year-end.  

SEK: Enjoying a Breather as Technical Factors Drive Correction

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