financial markets

CZK: Changing our central bank call to a 50bp rate cut

The blackout period for the Czech National Bank (CNB) began yesterday and we will therefore probably not hear anything more. Deputy Governor Jan Frait really moved the market when he said he was open to a larger rate cut, even more than 50bp at the 8 February meeting. We do know that the deputy governor was one of two board members who voted for a rate cut back in November when the CNB left rates unchanged. So the new statements aren't exactly a game changer, but we have confidence that at least two members will push for a 50bp rate cut at next week's meeting. In addition, the board will have a new forecast which we think should show very low inflation of below 3% for the upcoming months. Overall, this leads us to reassess our call from a 25bp to 50bp rate cut next week.

The acceleration of the rate cut is bad news for the CZK. However, we believe positioning has been heavily short here for some time and should not be so d

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 24.05.2022 22:00
Welcome trader, property investor, and bestselling author Stuart McPhee as he delivers his first Trading Week Ahead Live of June. Join him this coming Monday, as he starts the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then shares his perspective on potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 1st June 2022! Would like you to receive more support and guidance around your trading activity? Then Join Stuart and the rest of the Trade Zone community this coming Wednesday at 7PM AEST (10AM BST). Watch as he gives you his first mid-week Live Market Update of the Month. Revisiting the weeks earlier trade ideas from Monday’s Trading week Ahead, Stuart updates his insight about the moves and progression that have been made and shares his beliefs in the market as we approach the weekend. Register Now At the end of the session, there will be a live Q&A for you to ask all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions and get the answers needed to unlock the secrets to trading CFDs. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So join the Eightcap Trade Zone this week as we explore the markets together, and please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 02.06.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 02.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 02.06.2022 01:00
Join trader, property investor, and bestselling author Stuart McPhee as he delivers his first Trading Week Ahead Live of June. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 8th June 2022! Would you like help to understand the reasons behind the moves made in this week’s markets? Join Stuart and the rest of the Trade Zone community on Wednesday 8th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST). Watch as he gives you his first mid-week Live Market Update of the Month. Revisiting the week’s earlier trade ideas from Monday’s Trading week Ahead, Stuart updates his insight, breaking down the developments and moves made, and predicts what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, there will be an opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Get the answers needed to trade CFDs. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios?

Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.06.2022 09:12
Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios? Why rather click on an ad from a brokerage firm that states that 70% of their clients' accounts are loss-making than an ad from a broker that does not disclose this statistic at all? Come with us to delve into the ins and outs of broker licensing and learn what protections you are legally entitled to as a client. Broker's licence The operation of a brokerage company involves many minor acts anchored in legislation. From the operation of the broker as a firm with employees; arranging the opening of client accounts to handling client deposits and managing the online platform through which clients trade. For all of this, a broker needs a license. While this can be issued by almost any state authority, licences of some states are more desirable than that of others. And that is due to variety of reasons. Licenses issued in so-called offshore states allow brokers to provide their clients with very attractive trading conditions. For example, the financial leverage that allows a client to multiply his or her trading position and with it also potential earnings (as well as losses) can often go as high as 1:1000 for offshore licenses. However, when it comes to client protection, offshore licenses fall somewhat short. Client protection takes many forms and one of them is the wording of the mentioned disclaimer. Thus, if you see a disclaimer below the image of an advertisement that does not state the percentage of loss but only somewhat vaguely warns of the potential risk, it is very likely that the broker to whom the advertisement belongs has an offshore license. Image: Purple Trading banner ad (see disclaimer below the button) What is a disclaimer The short phrase "XY% of client accounts lose money" and its other small permutations, which you can see for example under our online advertisements, are part of the so-called disclaimer. The disclaimer takes many forms, from a single sentence under a banner ad on Facebook to a multi-paragraph colossus in the footer of the broker's website. The purpose of the disclaimer is simple - to highlight, to those interested in trading on financial markets, the potential risks of this activity and to disclaim broker’s responsibility for their client’s eventual failure. However, the overall message of the disclaimer might be written differently. Because sometimes we see loss percentages under the advertisement of Broker A, while Broker B's disclaimer merely tells us that trading is risky. No percentage, nothing more. Image: Sample of a shorter disclaimer on the broker's page Offshore vs EU license The European Union's legal environment is characterized by a much stricter regulatory approach. This applies to the control of pharmaceuticals, and foodstuffs, but also, for example, to the control of brokerage companies. This sector is dealt with by ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority), to which the regulators of all countries within the EU have to answer (including the regulator of Purple Trading, the Cypriot CySEC). It is ESMA that takes it upon itself to protect consumers (in this case, investors and retail traders in the financial markets). And it does so in all sorts of ways. The aforementioned client account loss ratios on brokers' marketing materials are one of them.   Other ESMA protections include:   Reduced financial leverage Financial leverage is the ratio of the amount of capital a trader puts into an account to the funds provided by the broker. In simple terms, it is essentially borrowed capital from the broker, which is not reflected in the balance of money in your account, but allows you to trade a greater volume of transactions than you could with your own money. More experienced traders can use leverage to increase their profits many times over. However, as well as profits, leverage also multiplies losses, so less-experienced traders should be wary of using leverage generously. That's also why ESMA capped leverage limit for retail clients at 1:30 in 2018, and higher leverage (up to 1:400) can only be provided by brokers to clients who have met a number of strict criteria to qualify as a so-called Professional Client.   Protection against negative balance A key aspect of client protection. If a client's trade that he had "leveraged" fails and the multiplied loss puts him in the red, the broker will pay the entire amount that is "in the red" from his pocket. Thus, the client can never lose more money than he has deposited in his account and consequently become a debtor. Negative balance protection is compulsory for all brokers operating in the EU. It is not compulsory for offshore brokers, which, combined with the high leverage offered there, can lead to very unfortunate situations.   Segregation of client deposits Forex and online trading, in general, has come a long way since its beginning in 2008. Especially in the early days, the online trading environment was highly unregulated and it was not uncommon for brokers to use capital from client deposits to fund their operations. More than that, there were also cases where the client’s capital was outright misused to enrich a select few. Brokers operating in the EU are obliged to secure clients’ funds in many ways. One is depositing client capital in accounts segregated from the capital brokers use to finance their operations. What if the broker fails to provide his clients with these guarantees? Brokers subject to such strict regulatory authorities as CySEC (cypriot based regulator under ESMA) must undergo regular audits. As part of these audits, the regulator monitors whether all the measures resulting from the licence granted by the regulator are being complied with. Should this not be the case, the broker is usually subject to a hefty fine and often even the suspension of its licence. This means that broker cannot really afford not to comply with the client protection principles of the EU regulatory environment. Conclusion Voluntary disclosure of client account loss rates under broker advertisements may seem odd. However, it is a positive signal that lets you know that the broker in question is highly regulated. Therefore, if you choose to trade with them, you are protected by a number of legislative regulations that the broker will not dare to violate. See which EU broker has the best disclaimer number
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 06.06.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 06.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 05.06.2022 20:00
Join trader, property investor, and bestselling author Stuart McPhee as he delivers his first Trading Week Ahead Live of June. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week. JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 8th June 2022! Would you like help to understand the reasons behind the moves made in this week’s markets? Join Stuart and the rest of the Trade Zone community on Wednesday 8th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST). Watch as he gives you his first mid-week Live Market Update of the Month. Revisiting the week’s earlier trade ideas from Monday’s Trading week Ahead, Stuart updates his insight, breaking down the developments and moves made, and predicts what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, there will be an opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Get the answers needed to trade CFDs. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 09.06.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee - 09.06.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 09.06.2022 01:30
Join Stuart McPhee, trader, property investor, and bestselling author, as he gives you his Trading Week Ahead Live for the week. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 15th June 2022! Are you tired of analysing the market alone? Would you like to know how the market is taking shape this week? Register for Stuart’s mid-week Live Market Update. Join him on Wednesday 15th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST) as he looks back at the earlier market activity and opportunities since his Trading week Ahead. Stuart will then break down the developments and moves made and provide further insight on what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, you will have the opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Learn what you need to trade CFDs safely. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Morning Market Insight, with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
Trading Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee

Trading Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 12.06.2022 00:30
Join Stuart McPhee, trader, property investor, and bestselling author, as he gives you his Trading Week Ahead Live for the week. Watch him as he starts off the week by summarising the state of the markets in Forex, Indices, and Commodities. Then prepare yourself as he shares potential trade ideas and opportunities in play for the coming week.  JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 15th June 2022! Are you tired of analysing the market alone? Would you like to know how the market is taking shape this week? Register for Stuart’s mid-week Live Market Update. Join him on Wednesday 15th June, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST) as he looks back at the earlier market activity and opportunities since his Trading week Ahead. Stuart will then break down the developments and moves made and provide further insight on what may happen as the weekend approaches. Register Now At the end of the session, you will have the opportunity to direct all your market, strategy, and trade-related questions to the expert in a live Q&A. Learn what you need to trade CFDs safely. The Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and Stuart McPhee this week on the Trade Zone as we explore the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live with Stuart McPhee appeared first on Eightcap.
The movie that changed futures trading once and for all

The movie that changed futures trading once and for all

Purple Trading Purple Trading 14.06.2022 08:01
The movie that changed futures trading once and for all There is more than dozen of films about financial markets. However, there is only one that had such an impact that it led to a legislative change in the commodity futures market. Which movie are we talking about and what changes it introduce in regards to commodity trading? Read on! Holywood’s fascination with financial markets Holywood is no stranger to depicting the world of financial markets. The subject became particularly attractive in the 1980s, when it became clear that market capitalism was more viable economic model than central planning of the Eastern Bloc, resulting in many films set in the stock market environment, majority of which focusing on Wall Street. However, only one of these films has managed to leave a mark in the memory of viewers as well as in law textbooks. Trading Places - a probe into the world of commodity trading Brothers Mortimer and Randolp Duke are bored billionaires who own a commodities trading brokerage firm. One day, as a part of somewhat cynical bet, they decide to swap the lives of a young and promising businessman, Louis Winthorpe III (Dan Aykroyd), and a street hustler, Billy Ray Valentine (Eddie Murphy). They want to crush the dreams of the former while helping the latter to become familiar in the world of financial markets. From today's perspective, the film is a unique probe into the workings of the financial markets before they were heavily computerised. In addition to the brilliant scenes in which are the Duke brothers explaining to Billy Valentine how commodities trading works, we also get a glimpse behind the scenes at the New York Board of Trade, where commodities are traded (climactic trading scenes were actually filmed there). The bulk of the plot and the main storyline then revolves around the trading of Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ), specifically the futures contracts of this commodity. Eddie Murphy rule   This rule, officially titled "Section 136 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Transparency and Accountability Reform and Consumer Protection Act, under Section 746" (but commonly referred to as "the Eddie Murphy rule"), prohibits the misuse of internal government information for the purpose of trading in the commodities markets. No one likes spoilers, so if you haven't seen this movie, we won't give away the plot and the denouement of the final scene of the entire movie. We'll just mention that shorting of FCOJ futures plays an important role here. In fact, so important, that this scene is reportedly often reference by traders on the New York Stock Exchange. Figure 1: The final scene of the film that initiated the inception of "Eddie Murphy rule" (source IMDb.com) Trading FCOJ futures today Although nowadays you don't see crowded rooms full of white collar men and women trying to buy low and sell high, FCOJ futures trading still exists. The only main difference is that rooms and phones have been replaced by computer screens and cubicles. Also, virtually anyone can trade today. If you are interested in trying out CFD trading of FCOJ futures, at Purple Trading we have recently introduced this instrument to our trader platforms. Just like our heroes of Trading Places, you can short (and long) and potentialy profit from both favourable and unfavourable market situations. The only difference is that you won't be able to use government information to do so, because Eddie Murphy Rule wouldn't allow you to.
Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 14.07.2022

Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 14.07.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 14.07.2022 14:45
Join us for the penultimate episode of our Trading Week Ahead Live, in partnership with the ForexAnalytix, as we look to finish off the month strongly and deliver more expert live market analysis. Watch Ryan Littlestone, market expert, Managing Director, and host of the ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’, as he takes you through the news and moves from the Asian and early European sessions, and continues to help you to plan for the upcoming week.  JOIN US THIS WEDNESDAY FOR OUR PENULTIMATE LIVE MARKET UPDATE OF THE MONTH | 20th July 2022! Secure your place to see how an expert prepares for the week’s market activity! Join Ryan as ForexAnalytix’s ‘The Flow Show’ continues to take control of the Eightcap Trade Zone and provide you with his penultimate mid-week Live Market update of the month. Watch his 30-45 minute live stream on Wednesday 13th July at 7.30PM AEDT (10.30AM BST), as he explores the news and moves, seeks trade ideas, and analyses the market progress since Monday’s Trading Week Ahead. Set a Reminder The Eightcap Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and ForexAnalytix this month on the Trade Zone as we explore more of the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ appeared first on Eightcap.
Investors? Bulls? Bears? These Series Are Linked To Finances

Investors? Bulls? Bears? These Series Are Linked To Finances

Purple Trading Purple Trading 15.07.2022 14:23
5 must-watch series from the world of finance With the boom of streaming services, investors are presented with often exciting opportunities. But today, we'll try to move away from looking at the world through the eyes of an investor and focus more on the content that streaming services offer. More accurately, we will take a look at the series that can be found on these platforms. But don’t worry, we won’t get too far from our beloved world of finance either. Financial world has always been an attractive subject not only for Hollywood screenwriters. Classics such as Wall Street (1986) and Wolf of Wall Street (2013) have not only grossed millions of dollars world-wide but even managed to convince many viewers into starting their own careers in finance. However, with the rise of streaming services, finance has also taken centre stage for a number of series. Some of the most well-known are the HBO-produced series Billions (2016) and Succession (2018). Today, let's take a look at a few lesser-known, but definitely not inferior series from the world of finance that are simply a must-watch. Devils (Sky, 2020) - a probe into investment bank’s speculation during global crises Produced by Italian broadcaster Sky, Devils is one of the most interesting European series in years. The plot follows Massimo Ruggero, who has risen from rags to riches as a head of the trading desk of the New York London Investment Bank (strikingly reminiscent of Goldman Sachs).   Massimo and his team speculate on the financial markets during the biggest events of the last 12 years. This gives viewers an insight into the behaviour of investment banks during the mortgage crisis, the Greek debt crisis and the Brexit vote, for example. The series is enriched with real time footage of international financial institutions meeting, mixing fiction with reality.   The second season premiered a few months ago and is of equal quality. With the main roles being masterfully played by Alessandro Borghi (known from the Suburra series and the film) and Patrick Dempsey (known from the Surgeons series).     Industry (HBO, 2020) - a series written by the bankers themselves Industry provides a grim and realistic look at what it's like to start a professional career in the financial sector in the heart of London. Here we follow a group of young bankers as they are trying to work their way up to a full-time position at one of London's investment banks, having to navigate this cutthroat and competitive environment as quick as possible.   The series captures well how depressing a given career can be and partially subverts any standards that may have been ingrained by titles such as Wall Street or Billions, taking off the rose-colored glasses of the viewer. Industry simply shows how challenging and competitive a career in finance can be.   As we watch the story of two main protagonists, experiencing their first successes and failures we simply have to wonder - will the desire for success and money prevail, or will the young bankers realise that there is more to life than the pursuit of money? The series, created by two former bankers, has completed its first season, with a second to follow later this year (2022).     Black Monday (Showtime, 2019) - when crisis meets satire   Welcome to the 1980s! A decade full of extravagant hairstyles, clothes and one of the biggest stock market crises in history. We're talking about "Black Monday", a single day in October 1987 during which world stock indices fell by tens of percent. As bleak as it might sound, Black Monday is the most light-hearted series on this list.   The series follows a group of traders from a second-rate Wall Street firm called the Jammer Group and uses satire and fiction to reveal the events that led to the aforementioned stock market crash. Don Cheadle, known from the Avengers franchise, stars in the lead role. The series ended after three seasons, all of which are currently available on HBO.   The Dropout (Hulu, 2022) - based on true events Enron, Worldcom and Theranos. Three of the biggest investor scams in decades. The Dropout series follows the story of Theranos - a company that promised to revolutionize blood testing. Founder Elizabeth Holmes managed to create an aura of success around herself and Theranos, fooling the biggest investment banks and the most famous investors. The company's market capitalization gradually climbed to $9 billion, which was almost unbelievable given the lack of a fully functional product.   The series reveals the rise and fall of the company and its founder, who went from being a female copy of Steve Jobs to an outlaw. However, If you're not too keen on dramatization of real events, we recommend watching the HBO documentary The Inventor: Out for blood in Silicon Valley. It also deals with this topic.   WeCrashed (Apple TV+, 2022) - when the marketing strategy goes too far   Investors who have followed the events of the US stock markets in recent years will immediately know that behind the title of this series lies the story of WeWork, a company that operates a network of co-working offices around the world. However, comparing WeWork to Theranos would be rather harsh, but there are several similarities.   The company's founder, Adam Neumann, has used a great marketing strategy to attract several major investors, most notably Softbank founder Masayoshi Son. Investors then valued the company at a hard-to-believe $47 billion ahead of its planned IPO. As the title of the series suggests, things did not go quite as planned. You can look forward to seeing well-known actors Jared Leto and Anne Hathaway in the lead roles.   Are you tempted by the world of stocks and even more so by shorting them?   At Purple Trading, you now have the opportunity to speculate on the rise and fall of more than 100 of the world's most famous companies and ride the current trend. And if you don’t feel like risking your own money, you can try it with virtual ones on our free demo account.  
Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 18.07.2022

Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ - 18.07.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 17.07.2022 14:45
Join us for the penultimate episode of our Trading Week Ahead Live, in partnership with the ForexAnalytix, as we look to finish off the month strongly and deliver more expert live market analysis. Watch Ryan Littlestone, market expert, Managing Director, and host of the ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’, as he takes you through the news and moves from the Asian and early European sessions, and continues to help you to plan for the upcoming week.  JOIN US THIS WEDNESDAY FOR OUR PENULTIMATE LIVE MARKET UPDATE OF THE MONTH | 20th July 2022! Secure your place to see how an expert prepares for the week’s market activity! Join Ryan as ForexAnalytix’s ‘The Flow Show’ continues to take control of the Eightcap Trade Zone and provide you with his penultimate mid-week Live Market update of the month. Watch his 30-45 minute live stream on Wednesday 13th July at 7.30PM AEDT (10.30AM BST), as he explores the news and moves, seeks trade ideas, and analyses the market progress since Monday’s Trading Week Ahead. Set a Reminder The Eightcap Trade Zone is the perfect place to get the help and support you need to improve your skills and understanding of the financial markets. So come join Eightcap and ForexAnalytix this month on the Trade Zone as we explore more of the markets together – Please remember to trade safely! The post Trading Week Ahead Live in Partnership with ForexAnalytix ‘The Flow Show’ appeared first on Eightcap.
Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) Shares Tank On Wednesday After SEC Filing & Press Release

Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) Shares Tank On Wednesday After SEC Filing & Press Release

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.08.2022 17:07
Summary: BBBY share price tanks. The company is due to make many cuts. BBBY The price of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) shares is soaring early on Wednesday as investors learn more details about the situation the struggling store is in. In an effort to stop the bleeding from a drop in sales, the retailer announced plans to liquidate 150 shops, issue more shares, and lay off 20% of its workforce on Wednesday morning in an SEC filing and a press release before a presentation to investors. As of 9:38 AM ET, shares of the company were down more than 24% in early trade. Bed Bath & Beyond said in a release that it had pledges for an additional $500 million in funding, raising its existing liquidity to almost $1 billion as the firm fights for survival. Additionally, the company submitted an SEC filing for the sale of up to 12 million additional shares of common stock. Bed Bath & Beyond has stated that it will lean out the business and remove 20% of its corporate and supply chain workers in order to reduce expenses by $250 million in its fiscal year 2022. The business recently announced its intention to shut down 150 underperforming locations, adding that it "continues to examine its portfolio and leases, as well as employees, to ensure alignment with client demand and go-forward strategy." Bed Bath & Beyond anticipates comparable sales will drop 26% from the prior year in the current quarter and 20% from the prior year in its fiscal 2022, with improvements in the decline throughout the second half of the year. Currently, Bed Bath & Beyond is in the second quarter of its fiscal year. The company's presentation on Wednesday comes in the wake of recent rumors that Bed Bath & Beyond had recruited Kirkland & Ellis, a firm best known for its bankruptcy and restructuring work, to assist in managing its debt load. According to Bloomberg, some suppliers stopped shipping when the business fell behind on payments. Despite Wednesday's early morning drop, shares of Bed Bath & Beyond are still on track to increase by more than 80% so far this month, despite the fact that the company is currently down more than 70% from recent highs. BBBY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com
BOC Rate Hike Odds Rise to 28.8% as Canada's Economy Shows Resilience

US Government Imposes Additional Licensing Requirements On Several Of Nvidia (NVDA) Sophisticated Products

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.09.2022 18:12
Summary: Nvidia stock price falling. Thursday's premarket trade saw a more than 5% decline in Nvidia stock. Nvidia (NVDA) SEC filing In a filing with the Securities and Exchange commission on Wednesday, chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) informed investors that the U.S. government has imposed additional licensing requirements on several of its sophisticated products. Unless Nvidia obtains a license to sell quickly, this will have an impact on sales to Russia and China. Part of the submission stated that according to the government, "the new licensing requirement will address the possibility that the covered products may be utilized in, or diverted to, a 'military end use' or 'military end user' in China and Russia." Although Nvidia noted that it doesn't conduct business with Russia, $400 million in third-quarter sales to China may be at risk. Currently, $5.9 billion in third-quarter sales are anticipated for the corporation by Wall Street. In a new SEC filing on Thursday, Nvidia stated that the government had approved some chip development as well as chip sales through Hong Kong till September 2023. Investors will continue to have reservations about Chinese chip sales for the overall sector in the upcoming months. Thursday's premarket trade saw a more than 5% decline in Nvidia stock. Since the recent SEC filing, shares have somewhat recovered their losses. The price of Tesla (TSLA) stock fell 1% in premarket trades as well. Nvidia hardware was used by some older Tesla models, although Tesla seems to have stopped using Nvidia as a chip hardware supplier recently. After being contacted for comment regarding any Nvidia goods used, Tesla didn't react right away. NVDA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barrons.com
Inclusion of Government Bonds in Global Indices to Provide Further Support for India's Stable Currency Amid Economic Growth

US Labor Market Data Due On Friday Was Hotly Anticipated - Unemployment Hit 3.7%, NFP Grew To 315K

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.09.2022 14:36
Summary: US Labor statistics beat market expectations in some cases and missed them in others. US unemployment rate increased to 3.7%. US Labor Market data After a surge of statistics that indicate a strong consumer and high labor demand, the eagerly awaited US jobs report could tip the scales toward a third jumbo-sized boost in interest rates later this month. One of the last significant reports that Fed policymakers will have access to before the mid-September policy meeting will help them solve a challenging economic and inflationary riddle. According to projections, August payroll growth will be solid but moderate at 298,000, and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 3.5%, matching the lowest level in fifty years. In addition, strong pay growth is anticipated despite the ongoing labor market imbalance between supply and demand. These numbers, along with a wildly positive employment report for July, rising consumer sentiment measurements, and an unexpected increase in job vacancies, may be enough to persuade the Fed to extend the highest interest-rate increases in a generation in order to rein in inflation. According to all of those statistics, Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics, said that this report "becomes very important." The pattern that other indicators have been showing—that the economy is quite resilient—might be a "stamp of confirmation" by all this. The Labor Department's average hourly earnings statistics and any signal of significantly slower employment growth in Friday's report, when combined with a larger slowdown in those figures, might alter expectations in favor of a half-point rate hike. However, before deciding on the best course of action, Fed officials will need to observe the results of the consumer price index later this month. The wage measurements will be a significant part of the jobs report. According to economists, the data will indicate a 5.3% increase from August 2021 and a 0.4% increase from one month prior in average hourly wages. In comparison to the preceding two months, the yearly growth would indicate a little acceleration. Although it is not usually the case, Claudia Sahm, founder of Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Consulting and a former Fed economist, said a slowdown in wage growth could provide Fed officials some comfort by pointing to an easing of inflationary pressures. Actual US Labor Statistics - unemployment rose to 3.7% The actual labor data exceeded expectations in some cases, with the unemployment rate coming in at 3.7%, exceeding the market expectation of 3.5%. Whereas the average hourly earnings statistic came in at 5.2%, missing the market's expectation of 5.3%. US payroll growth exceeded expectations in both Nonfarm payroll coming in at 315K and Private nonfarm payroll at 308K, both of which were expected to be 300K. Average hourly earnings slightly missed expectations of 0.4% and came in at 0.3%. Sources: bloomberg.com, investing.com
Oil Prices Soar on Prospect of Soft Landing, Eyes Set on $80 Breakout

Stock Market Volatility Drives Nasdaq Downwards, Reserve Bank of Australia’s Interest Rate Decision

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.09.2022 00:04
Summary: Nasdaq fell more than 0.7% on Tuesday. RBA interest rate decision. Nasdaq down 0.74% on Tuesday In a volatile post-Labor Day session on Tuesday, U.S. stocks fell as investors remained on edge in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision later in the month. The declines on Tuesday were led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which fell 0.7%. The movements follow three weeks in a row in which the major averages have lost money. Following the release of new data showing that U.S. services activity accelerated in August, losses throughout the equity market continued. This gave investors reason to believe that Fed officials could go with a larger rate rise of 75 basis points on September 21. IXIC Price Chart Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised interest rates by another 50 basis points on Tuesday, together with indications that the central bank is reaching the conclusion of its tightening cycle, left the Australian Dollar floundering. By raising rates by 50 basis points, the RBA satisfied market expectations and promised additional rate increases in its outlook. However, the RBA acknowledged "higher inflation and higher interest rates are putting pressure on household budgets, with the full effects of higher interest rates yet to be felt in mortgage payments". This is a sign from the Bank that it thinks the time has come to scale back on raising interest rates because the full impact of recent moves has not yet been felt. Sources: fxmag.com, poundsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com
Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Policy Decision - Met Market Expectations

Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Policy Decision - Met Market Expectations

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 07.09.2022 16:03
Summary: Bank of Canada interest rate decision. BoC met market expectations. Bank of Canada meets market expectations The Bank of Canada (BoC) met the market expectations on Wednesday by hiking their interest rates by 75bps up to 3.25% from 2.5%. Their Ivey PMI beat market expectations which were set at 48.3, but came in at an actual value of 60.9. Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 75 basis points, continues quantitative tighteninghttps://t.co/YXW4npzhVA#economy #cdnecon — Bank of Canada (@bankofcanada) September 7, 2022 Bank of Canada In order to safeguard the economy by limiting the amount that interest rates might need to increase over the medium term, the BoC increased its cash rate from 1.75% to 2.5% in July. This was done as part of a strategy to move monetary policy to an economically restrictive level sooner rather than later. Despite the fact that interest rate derivative market pricing implies that investors already expect the benchmark to climb further and as far as 3.75% by year's end, the BoC considers that restrictive threshold to involve a cash rate that is a place above the 3% level. “The Bank's commitment to front-loading rate hikes in the face of red-hot inflation means an even bigger 100 bps increase (matching July's hike) can't be ruled out. Canadian employment (Friday) is expected to rise 5K in August following two consecutive monthly declines. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 5.0%, which is still very low,” says Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. With the approaching Bank of Canada rate decision expected today and the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, we will undoubtedly use expectations to our advantage. Expectations play a significant part in the market impact of major event risk. In this meeting, both are expected to raise their respective benchmark rates by 75 basis points, but the former is doing so based on a 100-basis-point increase at its last meeting and the discount of a hawkish central bank. Sources: dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com, investing.com
German industrial production slumps for third straight month, raising recession risk

NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Price Touching 52-Week Lows

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.09.2022 14:00
Summary: Nvidia's stock price last week reached new 52-week lows. Nvidia foreshadowed a significant revenue shortfall. NVIDIA price chart Nvidia's stock price last week reached new 52-week lows after falling more than 60% from its highs. Watch this important support area right away. The pioneer of revolutionary graphics chips, Nvidia (NVDA), has had a difficult year. The stock hit fresh 52-week lows on Friday and is now 64% below its November 52-week high. It has not been a terrific stretch for the stock, to put it frankly. The Santa Clara, California, corporation is not the only one, to be sure.   Nvidia foreshadowed a significant revenue shortfall, then followed that with a sluggish quarter and dismal guidance. This week, Nvidia will host its GTC event, which could serve as a trigger. However, it is facing strong fundamental and technological momentum. Despite all of this, Nvidia has a great future and its stock has been severely undervalued. I want to look at the stock again for that reason. The harsh correction of Nvidia's shares, which saw a drop of more than 63%, is depicted on the weekly chart up top. On Friday, the shares recovered after touching the 200-week moving average. For almost a month, we have been keeping an eye out for this mark's tag. After all, the trend has been on your side if you are short Nvidia. However, many of these shorts also believe that Nvidia's 200-week moving average may serve as significant support and that the company has a limited downside. The Nvidia stock has experienced significant reductions throughout the years. The stock has had three significant drops of more than 50% in the past 12 years, but—and this is a big but—never more than 57.5%. The bottom line: Over the past twelve years, Nvidia stock has experienced maximum drops of 54% to 57.5%. A recent drop of 63.5% from its highs and entry into a significant support region could serve as a bounce area. An accumulation approach might not be the worst choice for long-term investors. NVDA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com
Stitch Fix (SFIX) Q4 Earnings Results Missed Investor Expectations After Difficult Quarter

Stitch Fix (SFIX) Q4 Earnings Results Missed Investor Expectations After Difficult Quarter

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.09.2022 12:53
Summary: SFIX reported lower-than-expected sales for Q4. High inflation and deteriorating retail environment. SFIX share price down after missing Q4 earnings expectations After the company reported lower-than-expected sales for the current quarter, offered weaker-than-expected sales guidance, and reported a decline in active clients, shares declined in after-hours trading. Revenue for the fourth quarter of Stitch Fix came to $481.9 million, falling shy of the Street's forecast of $489.4 million. The full-year sales forecast was trimmed to a range of $1.76 billion to $1.86 billion, while the first-quarter revenue projection was cut to $455 million to $465 million. $2.1 billion was the forecast on Wall Street. Elizabeth Spaulding, SFIX CEO wrote in the earnings release, “Today’s macroeconomic environment and its impact on retail spending has been a challenge to navigate, but we remain committed to working through our transformation and returning to profitability.” Stitch Fix shares have declined -75% year-to-date. Spaulding indicated during her address that they had faced an increasingly difficult fourth quarter, notably in June and July, due to the realities of high inflation levels and a deteriorating retail environment, which led to decreased discretionary spending in the garment industry. Because of a 9% year-over-year reduction in net active clients, which finished FY '22 at 3.8 million, Q4 net revenue fell 16% to $482 million. The quarter's adjusted EBITDA was negative $31.8 million. The company's CFO, Dan Jedda indicated during his address that SFIX had reported net revenue of $482 million, a 16% decrease from the previous year. This decline was caused by slowness in the volume of Fixes, which was largely offset by demand for Freestyle. In the wake of the financial report SFIX share price fell almost 10% in pre-market trading and 5.79% at close of market on September 20. SFIX Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
JABIL (JBL) Stock Surged In The Wake Of Favourable Q4 Earnings Results

JABIL (JBL) Stock Surged In The Wake Of Favourable Q4 Earnings Results

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.09.2022 22:00
Summary: JBL beast market expectations for Q4 earnings results. Sales of diversified manufacturing increased 13%. JABIL (JBL) Q4 earnings report On Tuesday, contract manufacturer Jabil (JBL) easily surpassed Wall Street's expectations for the current quarter of its fiscal year. The announcement caused JBL stock to rise. The St. Petersburg, Florida-based business reported adjusted earnings of $2.34 per share on $9.03 billion in revenue for the three months ended August 31. Jabil was predicted to report earnings of $2.15 per share on sales of $8.39 billion by analysts surveyed by FactSet. Jabil's earnings increased by 63% year over year while its sales increased by 22%. Jabil forecast adjusted earnings of $2.20 per share on $9.3 billion in sales for the current quarter. On the midpoint of its guidance, that is based. Wall Street expected Jabil to report first-quarter fiscal earnings of $2.11 per share on sales of $8.93 billion. It generated $1.92 in profit per share on $8.57 billion in revenue during the same time last year. Jabil additionally disclosed plans to repurchase up to $1 billion worth of its stock. According to IBD MarketSmith charts, JBL stock has established a cup-and-handle foundation with a purchase point of 65.98. Electronics manufacturing services and diversified manufacturing services are Jabil's two business divisions. Equipment for 5G wireless, cloud computing, networking, data storage, industrial, and other applications is produced by the electronics manufacturing facility. The company's diverse production facility produces mobile, medical, automotive, and other gadgets. Sales of diversified manufacturing increased 13% while sales of electronics manufacturing increased 32% year over year at Jabil. According to IBD Stock Checkup, JBL stock is tied for first place out of 15 stocks in the electronics contract manufacturing business group. It gets a 98 out of 99 IBD Composite Rating. Regardless of industry sector, the Composite Rating compares a stock's main growth characteristics to all other companies. Out of 197 industry groups that IBD monitors, the electronics contract manufacturing industry group comes in at number 33. JBL stock is also included in IBD's list of Tech Leaders stocks. JBL Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, investors.com
Why India Leads the Way in Economic Growth Amid Global Slowdown

Bank Of England Intervention Boosts Risk Appetite And The Possible End Of The iPhone Era

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 29.09.2022 10:39
The Bank of England (BoE) jumped in the UK’s shattered sovereign market to buy long-term UK bonds yesterday, because apparently, they have been warned that collateral calls on Wednesday afternoon could force investors to further dump their UK sovereign holdings. And the UK could no longer afford another heavy selloff wave on its sovereigns. Will the enthusiasm last?  The British 10-year yield fell 10% yesterday, and the pound jumped past the 1.08 mark against the US dollar and consolidated below 0.90 against the euro. The FTSE recovered early losses and closed the session 0.30% higher, gold recovered to $1662 an ounce, American crude rallied past the $80 per barrel, also boosted by the Hurricane Ian’s negative impact on supply. Around 11% of the Gulf of Mexico production was halted due to the storm.The S&P500 gained almost 2% yesterday to above 3700 level, while Nasdaq jumped more than 2%. Will the enthusiasm last? Not so sure. Yesterday’s price action was a sugar rush, triggered by the BoE intervention. Enthusiasm will likely fall as the level of blood sugar falls across the financial markets. Amazon is on the rise Amazon jumped 3% as investors liked the new devices at Wednesday’s annual device event, and Apple slipped on announcement that it will, finally, not produce more iPhones compared to last years.In Europe, all eyes are on Porsche that starts flying with its own wings today! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 BoE finally jumps in 3:24 BoE intervention boosts risk appetite, but for how long? 5:30 Amazon convinces, Apple disappoints 8:54 Porsche is now up for grab! Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #BoE #intervention #UK #gilt #GBP #Hurricane #Ian #crude #oil #energy #crisis #XAU #FTSE #sovereign #bonds #rally #Apple #Amazon #Porsche #IPO #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary ___ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr ___ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 ___ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH
Sticky US Inflation Expected to Maintain Dollar Strength Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Elon Musk To Go Through With Twitter (TWTR) Deal After All

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.10.2022 11:25
Summary: On Tuesday Musk renewed his offer to buy Twitter. TWTR share price jumped in the wake of the news. “X, the everything app” TWTR stock price jumped Elon Musk attempted to pull out of the high-profile transaction, but on Tuesday he renewed his offer to pay $44 billion for the social networking site Twitter. The Tesla entrepreneur suggested the price in a letter to Twitter that was sent on Monday to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The price is equal to the original valuation of $54.20 per share. Late on Tuesday, Mr. Musk finally spoke up about the deal, writing on Twitter, "Buying Twitter is an accelerant to inventing X, the everything app." The price of the social network's stock increased so dramatically when it was revealed that Elon Musk is trying to restart his acquisition of the company that runs it that the New York Stock Exchange twice had to temporarily halt trading, according to the Wall Street Journal. The "Flash Crash" of 2010 prompted the implementation of such pauses, which begin when stocks on major indexes change price by more than 5% in less than five minutes. On Tuesday, Twitter shares increased by at least 12% at various points as Elon Musk declared he would stick with his original $44 billion offer to buy the social media platform. After purchasing Twitter Inc., Elon Musk teased "X, the everything app." According to the billionaire's prior remarks, the service may resemble the popular Chinese app WeChat. Beyond a single-line tweet, Musk didn't offer much information. However, the CEO of Tesla Inc. has admitted to admiring the Tencent Holdings Ltd. app, which has evolved from a messaging service to a mini-internet used by more than a billion people from China users daily. He has expressed thoughts on improving Twitter, saying he wants it to be more like WeChat and TikTok, the popular video-sharing app owned by ByteDance Ltd. that has gained popularity in the US. He also drew comparisons to the so-called "super apps" that are popular in some parts of Asia and allow users to access a variety of services from communications to car summoning using a single smartphone application. TWTR Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com
OPEC+ To Reduce Oil Output By 2 Million Barrels Per Day

OPEC+ To Reduce Oil Output By 2 Million Barrels Per Day

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.10.2022 17:08
Summary: OPEC+ to reduce output to drive up prices. Energy costs have risen as a result of the supply shortage. OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output The biggest reduction in production since the epidemic began in 2020, OPEC+ said on Wednesday, October 5, that it will cut output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd). The decision was quickly criticized by the White House as "shortsighted," and the oil cartel was charged with "aligning with Russia." President Joe Biden's advice to refrain from taking such a dramatic measure has not been heeded by Saudi Arabia, which controls approximately one-third of OPEC's oil reserves and is seen as a US ally. In order to persuade the de facto ruler of the kingdom, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, to increase the number of barrels pumped, Biden visited the country in the Middle East three months ago. The output decrease is intended to raise oil prices back to the triple digits of dollars after a four-month decline. Oil prices have already risen to more than $90 a barrel as a result of anticipation of OPEC's decision this week. Saudi Arabia's move, which is probably motivated by politics and oil pricing equally, reminds the West who is in charge of this valuable resource and has caused the US to rethink its foreign policy goals, including sanctions against Venezuela. OPEC+ decision effects Due to underproduction by OPEC and its partners, the actual production reduction will be less than 2 million. The coalition fell short of its goals by 3.58 million barrels per day in August. In Nigeria, for instance, pipeline theft and vandalism caused oil production to reach a 32-year low. The true cuts will only amount to about 1 million bpd, according to Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, and analysts estimate even smaller reductions, as reported by Reuters. Energy costs have risen as a result of the supply shortage, which has been made worse by Russia's involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. Biden used the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve earlier, in May, to control the rise in oil prices and, consequently, gasoline costs. He might have to turn to releasing more oil after the OPEC+ cuts. Crude Oil Nov ‘22 Futures Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com
European Markets Face Headwinds Amid Rising Yields and Inflation Concerns

NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Price Dropped On Tuesday

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.10.2022 19:37
Summary: The Biden administration's decision to limit electronics exports to China last week. Citigroup reduced Nvidia's price objective by $38 to $210 per share. Nvidia (NVDA) share price drops due to biden administration Following the Biden administration's decision to limit electronics exports to China last week, Nvidia (NVDA) led chip stocks lower on Tuesday amid a flurry of analyst downgrades and broader sector repricing. Late last week, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) issued a warning regarding near-term revenue growth, and weakening PC and smartphone demand also put pressure on already-weak chipmakers. Additionally, President Joe Biden's decision to severely restrict the sale of equipment to China-based companies used in the production of advanced semiconductors gave further downside momentum. In the United States, Intel also suffered as a result of analysts at Wells Fargo lowering their price target on the chipmaker and noting a steep drop in near-term sales amid broader sector weakness. In contrast, Citigroup reduced Nvidia's price objective by $38 to $210 per share due to slowing growth rates in the market for cloud computing hardware. Nvidia shares fell 2.4% in early Tuesday trading to trade at $113.85 per share. The Biden administration announced further extensive restrictions on the sale of semiconductors and related equipment to China on Friday. Then, today, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its projection for global growth, hurting morale as well. And to top it all off, the Chinese government has decided to lock down major cities once more in an effort to stop the spread of COVID-19, which has recently caused supply chain issues. The new limits on high-end processor sales to China could notably hurt Nvidia. Although the administration had already ordered Nvidia to stop selling its top-tier data center GPUs to China back in late August, the administration's latest limitations on equipment sales to China last week only serve to further cement the two nations' technical separation. It's important to note that Nvidia estimated that the limits would affect around $400 million in revenue, or about 7% of projected revenue, if they were completely enforced. NVDA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com, fool.com
Chart of the Week - Gold Miners vs Energy Producers - 20.04.2022

German CPI Inflation Data Met The Markets Expectations

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.10.2022 08:15
Summary: German CPY (YoY) CPI inflation data met market expectations. Looming european energy crisis. Initial market reactions. German CPI inflation data comes in at 10% Preliminary estimates showed that in September 2022, Germany's consumer price inflation spiked to 10 percent year-over-year, the highest level ever and significantly more than the 9.4 percent market projection. Following a worsening energy crisis in the biggest economy in Europe and ongoing supply chain disruptions, consumer prices have been rising. The German CPI inflation data was forecasted at 10% and came in at 10%, in addition the German CPI (MoM) data also met market expectations and remained equal to the previous months at 1.9%, this indicates that the largest European economy has not worsened despite fears. With the war in the Ukraine continuing, and the sanctions placed on Russia by the European Union, it is no secret that the European economies are facing problems, driven by a looming energy crisis. With winter approaching and a shortage of gas forecasted, prices have been rising. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate hawkish interest rate hiking cycle is showing no signs of slowing down, Inflation data from Europe's largest economy tends to be a clear indication of the performance of the rest of the European Economies. In the wake of the previous German CPI inflation data release, separate statistics revealed that previously, consumer and business expectations for greater inflation and a worsening financial situation caused the euro zone's economic mood to decline significantly and more than anticipated. The effect of the CPI Inflation Data on the Markets As CPI inflation continues to rise, consumer confidence continues to fall, the actual figures set up a strong case for the European Central Bank to continue on their interest rate hiking cycle path. The initial effect of the released data caused the EUR/USD to strengthen slightly, the EUR/GBP had the same effect, strengthening as the German Inflation rate remained high, yet stable. Sources: investing.com, reuters.com, dailyfx.com
Both The US CPI & Core CPI Inflation Beat Market’s Forecasted Figures

Both The US CPI & Core CPI Inflation Beat Market’s Forecasted Figures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.10.2022 15:19
Summary: US CPI inflation beat market expectations. US Core CPI inflation beat market expectations. Initial market reaction. US CPI & Core CPI Inflation beat market expectations After breaking out last week, the US dollar is maintaining its recent highs. The primary US catalyst for this week is the release of CPI data today. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the CPI is anticipated to have risen by 8.1% in September compared to the same month a year prior, which is only slightly less than the 8.3% annual increase seen in August. The actual US CPI inflation (YoY) came in at 8.2%, beating market expectations. For the White House and legislative Democrats, the continued high inflation has been a major political concern, overshadowing the coronavirus pandemic's quick recovery and the creation of millions of jobs since Joe Biden took office. The Core CPI is anticipated to rise for a second consecutive month, with the rate rising to 6.5% in September from 6.3% in August. Additionally, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a higher path for US interest rates, which could fuel anticipation for another 75bp Fed rate hike. The actual US Core CPI inflation (MoM) came in at 6.6%, also beating market expectations. Effect on the markets The market will probably jerk in either direction after the September CPI report is released. The bar remains very high to change the perception surrounding a 75 basis point rate hike from the FOMC in November, despite the possibility of volatility across asset classes. The Federal Reserve may face pressure to maintain its approach to battling inflation if the core CPI increases once again, according to the minutes from the September meeting that revealed “many participants emphasized that the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action.” The initial reaction from the EUR/USD was bearish, USD/JPY was bullish as the dollar strengthened in the wake of the news, the S&P500 also jumped and Bitcoin remained on a downward trend. Sources: investing.com, financialtimes.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
TEST

Dow Jones Increased Overnight, GBP Could Rally If UK Leadership Changed

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.10.2022 11:27
Summary: Dow Jones futures all increased overnight as investors focused on Netflix (NFLX). The near-term outlook for the pound has significantly improved. Dow Jones Index Rally The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones futures all increased overnight as investors focused on Netflix (NFLX) subscriber growth and anticipated Tesla earnings. The effort at a stock market rally extended advances on Tuesday, but the session ended well below highs. Although the market rise is still going strong, nothing yet has been proven. Investors should exercise caution and pay great attention. In Q3, Netflix's subscriber growth was substantially stronger than anticipated, and the leader in streaming TV is optimistic about Q4 subscribers. Earnings also exceeded expectations. The rise in Netflix's shares suggested a breakout. Overnight, Roku (ROKU) and Disney (DIS) both increased. In comparison to fair value, Dow Jones futures gained 0.6%, with DIS stock contributing a slight gain. Futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.7%. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%. United Airlines and NFLX stock both make up the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. DJI Price Chart GBP could rally in the wake of UK leadership change The near-term outlook for the pound has significantly improved, according to foreign exchange strategists at BMO Capital, and more gains are possible if the UK leadership is changed in the next two weeks. They claim that such a development is very plausible. The call follows the dramatic about-face in UK fiscal policy that newly-installed Chancellor Jeremy Hunt revealed. In order to fully restore market confidence in the UK government and finances, Hunt undid all of his predecessor's tax cuts. This was followed by a decline in UK gilt yields and a rise in the value of the pound. The reversal was unavoidable given that the world markets recoiled at the generosity of the new prime minister Liz Truss' economic plans, which called for large tax cuts that would be paid for by borrowing.
The Markets Still Hope That The Fed May Consider Softer Decision

Eurozone CPI Inflation Came in Lower Than Expected

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 19.10.2022 13:11
Summary:  Eurozone CPI inflation came in lower than expected. CPI inflation drops for the first time since May 2022. Initial market reactions. The Eurozone CPI inflation  The market had originally forecasted a CPI (YoY) inflation of 10% for the Eurozone, the actual figure came in at 9.9%, missing market expectations slightly. This could indicate to the market that the European Central Bank should continue its interest rate hiking cycle.  The falling inflation during September marks the first drop in Eurozone CPI inflation since May 2022. The falling inflation could provide the European Central Bank with an incentive to continue on their hawkish interest rate hiking path.  Effect of the CPI inflation data When the European Central Bank meets again at the end of the month, it is anticipated that it will boost its benchmark interest rates by an additional 75 basis points, adding to the total number of rises announced since July of 125 basis points. However, the Euro Area is predicted to "stagnate later in the year and in the first quarter of 2023," and the fear of a weakening economy may induce the central bank to implement lower rate increases over the following months. With the U.K. inflation figures, concerns that central bank tightening may cause a worldwide downturn have reemerged, reversing the previous upbeat feeling brought on by solid earnings reports and dissipating concerns about systemic risk from Britain's debt markets. The U.K’s hotter than expected inflation figure has also put pressure on the markets. In addition, the European economy has been weighed down by the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine, and the looming energy crisis. The Initial market reaction in the wake of the softer than expected CPI inflation data saw the Euro weaken against both the US Dollar and the Pound sterling. The initial market reaction saw both the HSBC shares and the iBEX index rise. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, marketsummary.com, ft.com, investing.com
This Week's Tesla Stock Split Could Be The Best Moment To Buy The Stock! Twitter Stock Price Plunged!

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Price Dropped Around 5.77% In Pre-Market Trading

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.10.2022 15:23
Summary: Concerns that inflation & logistic difficulties may have slowed the EV manufacturer's development. Tesla fell short of automotive gross margin estimates. Tesla share prices down Tesla Inc. shares dropped by roughly 5% in pre-bell trading on Thursday as Wall Street analysts worried that growing inflation and logistical difficulties may have slowed the electric vehicle manufacturer's development. At least five brokerages reduced their price targets for the stock, with Wedbush Securities making the greatest reduction of $60 to lower its goal to $300 and citing softer deliveries in 2022. "The bullish narrative is clearly hitting a rough patch as Tesla must now prove again to the Street that the robust growth story is running into a myriad of logistics issues as opposed to demand softening," Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a note. In premarket trade, the stock, which has lost 37% of its value this year, dropped 4.6% to $211.80. The company warned that difficulties it was having with logistics could prevent it from meeting its goal of a 50% increase in delivery volume this year in its quarterly results report. Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, acknowledged that "demand is slightly harder" than it would otherwise be on a post-earnings call, but he reiterated that the business was quite optimistic in having a record fourth quarter. Tesla fell short of automotive gross margin estimates despite increased selling prices for its vehicles due to manufacturing ramp-up costs at its new factories in Austin, Texas, and Berlin, Germany. However, other analysts believe Tesla will benefit greatly from the global transition toward electric automobiles. Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, noted that demand was high while discussing the company's third-quarter profits. He did, however, issue a warning that deflationary tendencies in the economy were intensifying and that China and Europe were going through "a form of recession." TSLA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com
Solid Wage Growth in Poland Signals Improving Labor Market Conditions

UK Retail Sales Data Missed Market Expectations, Coming In Hotter Than Expected

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.10.2022 08:41
Summary: U.K Retails data came in hotter than expected. Consumer spending has largely decreased in the U.K. UK Retail Sales Data UK Retail Sales Data heavily missed market expectations on Friday, with YoY data coming in at -6.9% and market expectations that were originally set at -5.0%, and MoM data also missing market expectations, coming in at -1.4% with expectations originally set at -0.5%. The data from both YoY & MoM missed market expectations by a long way, indicating that the U.K economy had deteriorated throughout September more than the markets had expected. Retail Sales track changes in the total amount of retail sales that have been adjusted for inflation. It is the most important gauge of consumer spending, which dominates all other forms of economic activity. The lower than expected readings could be interpreted as bearish or negative, as consumers in the U.K heavily slowdown the spending as the looming recession becomes more real. Effect on the market It could be said that the retail sales help investors to gauge the health of an economy and the existence of inflationary pressures. Consumer spending makes up a large part of the U.Ks GDP, the figures that largely missed market expectations could be interpreted as the U.K economy heading into a recession. The market could expect that the Bank of England (BoE) will continue on their interest rate hiking cycle, and perhaps we could see the BoE turn even more hawkish in their fight against rising inflation. The initial market reaction for the GBP/USD currency pair saw the GBP weaken against the USD, the same goes for the EUR/GBP currency pair, which saw the EUR strengthen against the GBP initially. The FTSE 100 is up as of the release of the Retail Sales Data. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, ft.com
SEK: Riksbank's Impact on the Krona

SNAP Inc. Share Price Crashes 30%, BHP CEO Optimistic About China’s Economic Prospects, Fed’s Hawkishness

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.10.2022 16:38
Summary: Snap’s Q3 earning results missed market expectations. BHP is optimistic about China's growth prospects. Fed remains hawkish in interest rate hiking cycle. SNAP stock crashing After another difficult quarter, the stock price for Snap is still declining. In pre-market trading on Friday, shares of the social networking platform fell 25% as third quarter sales showed a fifth consecutive quarterly slowdown. Additionally, profits were disappointing, as Snap continued to attribute the poor execution to a slowdown in advertising and changes to Apple's privacy policies. The business issued a warning that the fourth-quarter sales trends would deteriorate. Snap Inc. Q3 earnings missed market expectations. Average Revenue Per User: $3.11 vs. $3.17 forecast, Daily Active Users: 363 million vs. 358 million estimate, Adjusted EPS: $0.08 vs. projected loss of $0.02, Net Sales: $1.13 billion vs. $1.14 billion estimate Guidance: Fourth-quarter revenue growth was "flat." $SNAP shares are still struggling in pre-market today after a dismal Q3 report. The stock is down almost 30% in pre-market, surpassing analyst estimates of a 23% swing. https://t.co/RD3FDZrEAT pic.twitter.com/j1CF7GKcTH — Yahoo Finance Plus (@yfinanceplus) October 21, 2022   BHP CEO optimistic about future production CEO of BHP Group Mike Henry stated on Friday that despite uncertainty, he was "cautiously optimistic" about China's economic prospects. The leader of the largest listed mining firm in the world stated in a pre-recorded interview at the FT Mining Summit in London: "There is uncertainty in China, but in our judgment, China is still going to give a bit of stability or underpinning to global economic development over the next 12 months."   With more than 250 million tonnes mined in the fiscal year ending in June, BHP is a leading producer of iron ore, which is used to make steel used in the construction industry. According to Henry, the multinational mining corporation is now looking into ways to boost iron ore productivity above 300 million tonnes annually. BHP chief pledges ‘disciplined’ M&A stance despite bulging war chest https://t.co/qoBC6jukwA — Financial Times (@FT) October 21, 2022 Federal Reserve to remain hawkish In general, the US dollar is higher so far today as markets assess the week before the weekend. After soaring once further in the US session, Treasury rates across the curve are a few basis points higher in Asian trade. Today's 4.27% yield on the benchmark 10-year bond was the highest since 2008. ⚠️BREAKING:*FED SET TO RAISE RATES BY 0.75 POINT AND DEBATE SIZE OF FUTURE HIKES - WSJ$DIA $SPY $QQQ 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/eWNuHX0skh — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 21, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, twitter.com, dailyfx.com
Meta Is Cutting Discretionary Spendings And Extending Its Freeze On Hiring

SNAP Inc Share Price Weighed Down By Disappointing Q3 Earnings Results

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.10.2022 19:56
Summary: SNAP may need to make even more job cuts. Summary of Snap's difficult quarter. Price of Snap fell by close to 30% on Friday. SNAP Inc Share Price down 30% One veteran tech analyst expressed concern that Snap (SNAP) may need to make even more job cuts than it had first anticipated due to the third quarter's steeper than anticipated decline in business. After the social media platform disclosed that third-quarter sales slowed for the fifth consecutive quarter, the price of Snap fell by close to 30% on Friday morning. Throughout the session, the company's shares dominated Yahoo Finance's "Trending Ticker" page. Snap said at the end of August that it would lay off 1,300 workers, or 20% of its staff. Despite the recent round of major layoffs, Snap continues to blame a slowdown in advertising and Apple's (AAPL) privacy rules for its executional blunders as third-quarter profitability lagged. The business also issued a warning that the fourth-quarter sales trends will deteriorate. Here is a summary of Snap's difficult quarter: Net Sales: $1.13 billion vs an anticipated $1.14 billion, 363 million versus an expected 358 million daily active users, $3.11 as opposed to the predicted $3.17 for average revenue per user Adjusted EPS: $0.08 vs a loss of $0.02 expected, Guidance: Fourth-quarter revenue growth was "flat." "Yes, I mean they do [have to cut expenses more]," Jefferies Analyst Brent Thill mentioned on Yahoo Finance Live. "They just restructured the company. They obviously are in the process of still reducing the workforce by 20%. They may have to go deeper." Shares of the photo-focused social media behemoth Snap (SNAP) are currently 30% down than their 52-week highs after it released poor third-quarter earnings. Additionally suffering from the stock shift are companies like Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), Pinterest (PINS), and others. Some of these businesses are being helped by the fact that U.S. stocks are rising in the first part of Friday's session, but not Snap. SNAP Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com
The release of Chinese GDP, Bank of Canada interest rate decision and more - InstaForex talks the following week (part I)

Broad China Selloff Drags Down Alibaba, European Gas Prices Down, Goldman Sachs Aim To Increase Investment In China, Race For Next U.K PM

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.10.2022 13:40
Summary: Alibaba stock tanks on Monday. Warmer weather prospects driving NGAS down. Goldman Sachs has established a new joint venture in China. Rishi Sunak on track to become the next U.K Prime Minister. Markets reacted to President Xi Jinping’s re-election As markets reacted to President Xi Jinping consolidating power following his historic confirmation to a third term as head of the second-largest economy in the world, shares of Chinese corporations were falling on Monday. Alibaba (ticker: BABA) lost 12% in premarket trade in the United States. Investors are spooked by President Xi Jinping's increasing control over China's ruling party as he begins a record-setting third term with no apparent successor. In addition, the 14th edition of the 11.11 Global Shopping Festival ("11.11" or "Festival"), which will feature more than 290,000 brands, was formally launched today by Alibaba Group Holding Limited. ⚠️BREAKING:*ALIBABA STOCK PLUNGES 11% IN HONG KONG AMID BROAD CHINA SELLOFF$BABA 🇨🇳🇭🇰 pic.twitter.com/qd0XErYE4B — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 24, 2022 European gas prices fall as supply prospects improve Following predictions of warmer-than-usual weather for the majority of the continent over the coming week, European natural gas futures fell once again during the opening hours of trading on Monday. Weather predictions that continental Europe will see temperatures this week that are between 4 and 8 degrees Celsius warmer than the seasonal norm, predicting reduced demand and enabling importers to continue injecting excess gas into storage, served as the primary impetus for the decision. ​​In order to relieve the pressure brought on by Russia's effective supply suspension, Europe has been able to fill its storage facilities ahead of schedule thanks to a mild start to the winter heating season and aggressive buying of liquefied natural gas on spot markets. EU storage facilities were 93.4% full as of Sunday, with the two largest markets on the continent, Germany and Italy, posting even higher levels. ⚠️BREAKING:*EUROPEAN GAS PRICES TUMBLE TO LOWEST SINCE JULY ON EASING SUPPLY FEARS 🇪🇺🇪🇺 pic.twitter.com/nGg49xSG1T — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 24, 2022 Goldman Sachs’ new joint venture In an effort to increase investment in Chinese logistics and infrastructure real estate assets, Goldman Sachs has established a joint venture in China with local logistics firm Sunjade, the U.S. bank announced on Monday. According to a company release, the bank is creating the new subsidiary through its investment arm Goldman Sachs Asset Management, which has made more than $50 billion in real estate-related investments worldwide. The stock structure or the amount of money committed to the platform were not disclosed. The joint venture has invested in a 240,000 square meter project with four institutional-grade warehouse assets in Shanghai and the surrounding region. The joint venture focuses on projects in China's first-tier cities and neighboring areas. The new platform, according to the U.S. bank, will profit from China's growing demand for brand-new, high-quality infrastructure assets, particularly institutional-quality storage space driven by e-commerce and the diversification of industrial requirements supported by government policies. Goldman Sachs launches Chinese infrastructure real estate joint venture https://t.co/HdGJm9ExlH pic.twitter.com/mmj53hkACz — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 24, 2022 Rishi Sunak on track to be next U.K PM After Boris Johnson withdrew from the race on Sunday night and the markets breathed a sigh of relief, Rishi Sunak, a former chancellor, was on track to become the new prime minister of Britain on Monday. After the likelihood of further imminent political and economic unrest decreased, the value of the pound increased on Monday. Johnson, who was having trouble gaining support, acknowledged that due to divisions among Tory MPs, even if he had won, he could not have governed "effectively." If Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons and his sole remaining competitor, is unable to secure the necessary 100 nominations from Tory MPs, Sunak will take over as the party's leader at 2 p.m. on Monday. Rishi Sunak’s priority should be to restore stability and the UK’s reputation https://t.co/WLKJCGg49X — Financial Times (@FT) October 24, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com, twitter.com
This Week's Tesla Stock Split Could Be The Best Moment To Buy The Stock! Twitter Stock Price Plunged!

Tesla Lowers Starting Price Of Selected EV Models

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.10.2022 13:00
Summary: TSLA stock's six-month fall is sitting around 37.8%. Tesla is lowering the starting price of its Model 3 and Model Y, in China. China, the world's largest EV market, is still constrained by Beijing's "zero COvid" policy. Tesla car model price lowering For the first time this year, Tesla is lowering the starting price of its Model 3 and Model Y cars in China. After lowering pricing for the first time this year for cars built in China, Tesla (TSLA) shares continued to fall on Monday, indicating waning demand in the largest market in the world. Just days after its third quarter earnings report echoed the impact of rising production costs and showed narrowing profit margins for the most valuable automaker in the world, Tesla reduced the starting price of its Model 3 sedan by about 5.3% and cut the cost of its Model Y by 9%. Tesla has been increasing the costs of its American-made cars for much of the year. Tesla reported that due to an increase in input prices and expenses associated with the start-up of new plants in Austin and Berlin, gross automotive margins were 27.9%, a 600 basis point decrease from last year and unchanged from the amount achieved over the second quarter. The company also warned that as it "simplifies operations, reduces costs, and improves the experience of our consumers," full-year deliveries "may fall slightly short of its 50% growth target." In pre-market trading, Tesla shares were marked 3.5% lower to reflect an opening bell price of $207 per share, bringing the stock's six-month fall to about 37.8%. Following record quarterly sales of 343,830 vehicles, Tesla stated last week that revenues increased 56% from the previous year to $21.45 billion, falling short of analysts' expectations of a $21.96 billion total. Demand is anticipated to decline over the course of the year as countries in Europe and North America hold off on major purchases due to recession fears and the continued rise in energy prices, while China, the world's largest EV market, is still constrained by Beijing's "zero COvid" policy. TSLA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com
In The Coming Days Will Be The Final Consolidation Of Bitcoin

Chinese Renminbi Hits Lowest Level In 15 Years, Transfer Of UK PM Status, EU Stocks Supported By Potentially Dovish Fed, Bitcoin Forecast

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.10.2022 13:00
Summary: The value of China's currency has decreased 13% so far this year.  U.S. economy shrank for a fourth consecutive month.   Chancellor Rishi Sunak was named the next prime minister. Bitcoins new price objective set at $30,000. The Renminbi is crashing The value of the Chinese yuan against the dollar has fallen to its lowest level since 2007 as worries over President Xi Jinping's choice of a more hardline leadership team and the weakening economy moved from stock markets to currency markets. A growing interest rate disparity with the US has already hurt the renminbi this year; on Tuesday, it dropped as much as 0.6% to Rmb7.3084 per dollar. The People's Bank of China lowered the midpoint of the currency's trading band to its lowest level since the world financial crisis, which caused the decline.  The value of China's currency has decreased 13% so far this year. The decline on Tuesday came after a sell-off in Chinese stocks that affected markets around the world this week, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises index falling more than 7% on Monday and the Nasdaq Golden Dragons index of major technology stocks falling more than 14%. China’s renminbi has hit its weakest level against the dollar since 2007 following concerns over President Xi Jinping’s appointment of a harder line leadership team and a struggling economy https://t.co/F96TYsSrcE pic.twitter.com/8niDscsIu5 — Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 25, 2022 Rishi Sunak takes over from Truss This week saw a solid start for the pound, but it was unable to continue its upward trend when former chancellor Rishi Sunak was named the next prime minister-designate after the Conservative Party leadership contest, which will have a major impact on the pound and the UK economy going forward. After former Prime Minister Boris Johnson withdrew from the race for the position of Prime Minister, leaving former Chancellor Rishi Sunak on course for a coronation that is expected to produce the UK's fifth Prime Minister in the past six years on Tuesday, sterling increased against most major currencies to start the new week.  The Pound, however, quickly lost its early gains as newly-elected Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warned of impending economic hardship and difficult choices involving the public finances in a speech to parliament.  Follow the latest developments as Rishi Sunak takes over from Liz Truss as UK prime minister https://t.co/pEjylJrgRO — Bloomberg (@business) October 25, 2022 EU Stocks supported by potentially dovish fed While anxiety over China's economy continued to weigh on Asian markets, European stocks climbed in early trade on Tuesday as investors took heart from indications that the U.S. Federal Reserve could scale back its rate increases. Data released on Monday revealed that the U.S. economy shrank for a fourth consecutive month. This suggests that the Fed's rate hikes have weakened the economy, which in turn has fueled optimism that the central bank may start to moderate the pace of the increases.  The projected Fed rate peak has decreased slightly from over 5% early last week to around 4.93%. The European stock market's mood was also helped by certain profit results that exceeded forecasts, with Swiss bank UBS (UBSG.S) among those that did so. However, the biggest bank in Europe, HSBC, announced a 42% decline in third-quarter profit, which caused a 4% decline in its share price (.HSBA.L). European stocks up as investors see signs Fed could slow rate rises https://t.co/a5VwuwKWFZ pic.twitter.com/ONhjztqvLs — Reuters (@Reuters) October 25, 2022 Bitcoin Forecast revised upwards to $30,000 In the coming month, Bitcoin "will break out dramatically," with a price objective of $30,000.  Michal van de Poppe, the founder and CEO of the trading company Eight, made that most recent forecast. On October 25, Van de Poppe tweeted his support for the analysts who are predicting a rise in the price of bitcoin. BTC/USD is now characterized by a notable lack of volatility, but there are growing indications that the sideways trend is about to undergo a significant change.  Popular analyst TechDev and others have confirmed that Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands versus the Nasdaq are the tightest in history, which all but guarantees an explosive move to come. “Market looking good for a last leg up. Higher highs and higher lows on ltf and demand being moved up,” he tweeted.   Analyst puts Bitcoin price at $30K next month with breakout due - https://t.co/IKtVBdXcef — Investing.com News (@newsinvesting) October 25, 2022 Sources: twitter.com, cointelegraph.com, reuters.com, ft.com, investing.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Energy Companies Will Likely Reveal Another Excellent Quarter

General Electric (GE) Cash Goal Delayed In The Wake On Supply Chain Issues - According To CEO

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.10.2022 18:45
Summary: GE is on pace to reach the low end of its projection due to "external pressures" like inflation. 27% increase in aerospace sales. General Electric (GE) Q3 Earnings The industrial group's cash flow rebounded in the second quarter thanks to GE's aerospace business, but the company issued a warning that its working capital would be put under strain as it protected its clients from the full effects of supply chain disruptions for the remainder of the year. After GE separated its healthcare and energy businesses, Larry Culp, the company's chief executive, said the group was adhering to its forecast that full-year adjusted profits per share would range between $2.80 to $3.50 per share. With the exception of cash, where delayed renewable energy orders and the anticipated losses to working capital would "push out," or postpone, around $1 billion in free cash flow to a later date, GE was on pace to reach the low end of its projection due to "external pressures" like inflation. Before Tuesday's release, analysts' consensus projections for full-year earnings had already decreased to $2.80 per share from $3.20 three months prior when GE issued a warning about the effects of lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine. A 27% increase in aerospace sales drove a 5% increase in GE's top line, and adjusted revenues of $17.9 billion exceeded analysts' forecasts of $17.6 billion. As a result of supply chain delays, services revenues in the aerospace industry increased by 47% while commercial engine deliveries decreased. According to GE, its strategy to divide into three publicly traded firms by 2024 with a focus on healthcare, energy, and aviation is still on track. As it advanced toward the three-way split, it claimed on Tuesday that it incurred "separation costs" of roughly $200 million in the second quarter. Culp said he was still optimistic that the plan will increase GE's worth in the long term when he made his remarks the same day that 3M revealed intentions to separate its own healthcare division. This month, GE made the following announcements: its healthcare division would be spun off early next year under the name GE HealthCare; its energy division would be rebranded as GE Vernova when it goes public in 2024; and Culp would oversee the remaining aviation division, which will be known as GE Aerospace. According to GE, the effects of inflation pressures would result in $3 billion in healthcare earnings for the entire year. It further stated that it no longer anticipated a "step up" in earnings at its renewable energy company in the second half of the year, blaming "paralysis in Washington" for a failure to meet expectations for the onshore wind turbine market.
Declines At The Close Of The New York Stock Exchange, The Drop Leaders Were Nike Inc Shares

NASDAQ Futures Down More Than 1.5%, Xi Jinping Pushes Out Youth League Members From Politburo, Spotify Users Up 20% YoY

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.10.2022 12:15
Summary: NASDAQ weighed down by poor MSFT & GOOGL earnings. Xi's years-long campaign to destroy the faction was successful. Spotify surpassed expectations in terms of both paid and free user growth. NASDAQ down more than 1.5% on Tuesday On Wednesday, Nasdaq futures dropped more than 1% after poor financial statements from tech titans Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Microsoft prompted losses at other megacap firms and fueled concerns about slowing economic growth. While Alphabet, the parent company of Google, reported disappointing ad sales and warned of a slowdown in advertising expenditure, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported its lowest sales growth in five years and anticipated second-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates. In premarket trade, the businesses' shares plummeted 5.7% and 6.0%, respectively, while those of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), who are expected to release earnings this week, dropped 3.7% and 0.6%. The disappointing results come after Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) issued a warning last week over sluggish ad demand and a string of mixed earnings reports, which have added to concerns that the economy is being negatively impacted by decades-high inflation and ad-hoc interest rate hikes to combat it. ⚠️BREAKING:*NASDAQ 100 FUTURES TUMBLE 1.8% AS GOOGLE, MICROSOFT SINK AFTER EARNINGS$QQQ $GOOGL $MSFT pic.twitter.com/2rd4B4bJjP — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 26, 2022 China’s new president pushes out youth league members The three most notable absences from China's new Communist Party leadership have one thing in common: they all rose through the ranks of the Youth League and were regarded as representatives of a once-dominant clique, whose influence Xi Jinping has now successfully quashed. Even the larger Central Committee was bypassed as Xi installed supporters in key party positions during the recent twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle. Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Wang Yang, both 67 and young enough to be re-appointed to the elite seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, were left out. Hu Chunhua, a fellow vice premier and former high flyer who, at 59, had been considered a prospect for premier and, at one point, even a potential future president, failed to make it to the 24-man Politburo. Analysts said the omissions demonstrate Xi's years-long campaign to destroy the faction was successful. China's Xi deals knockout blow to once-powerful Youth League faction https://t.co/g47pd77mil pic.twitter.com/uqSDoVgG2g — Reuters (@Reuters) October 26, 2022 Spotify up 20% on Users Spotify surpassed expectations in terms of both paid and free user growth in the third quarter, pointing to the region's strength in particular. A net addition of 23 million members, or 20% more than Spotify's previous projection, brought the total number of monthly active users (MAUs) to 456 million, which is the company's highest Q3 growth to date. The number of Spotify Premium subscribers increased to 195 million, up 7 million during the time (about 1 million more than expected) and 13% annually. Ek stated on the earnings call that Spotify is considering increasing the cost of its U.S. subscription plans in response to price increases by YouTube Premium and Apple Music. “[I]t’s something we will [discuss] with our label partners,” he said. “I feel good about this upcoming year, and what it means about pricing for our service.” Spotify (SPOT) reported a quarterly loss of $0.99 per share vs the $0.88 loss that the Zacks Consensus Estimate had predicted. This contrasts with a loss of $0.48 per share in the prior year. These numbers have non-recurring expenses taken into account. This quarterly report shows a -12.50% profits surprise. This music streaming service operator surprised analysts by posting a loss of $0.91 per share during the most recent quarter when it was anticipated that it would lose $0.68, a difference of -33.82%. The management's remarks on the earnings call will be largely responsible for determining if the stock's current price movement based on previously revealed numbers and anticipated future earnings can be sustained. Compared to the S&P 500's -20.3% decrease since the start of the year, Spotify share prices have fallen by around 59.6%. Spotify reaches 456M total monthly users in Q3, up 20% YoY and topping expectations https://t.co/vRe14ATA7s via @Variety CEO also said subscribers can expect price hikes for the service sometime in 2023. $SPOT shares are down 5% in after market trading. — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) October 25, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, twitter.com, reuters.com, investing.com
KGL's Strong Q1 Results Raise Earnings Forecasts, But Long-Term Concerns Linger

Harley Davidson (HOG) Q3 Earnings Were Better Than Expected

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.10.2022 18:01
Summary: The third-quarter results for Harley-Davidson HOG beat expectations. Harley's goals and plans for enhancing operational performance are called Hardwire. Harley stock had lost roughly 2% of its value as of Wednesday's trade. Harley Davidson beat market expectations The third-quarter results for Harley-Davidson HOG +11.15% were better than expected. The business is advancing in optimizing its processes. On Wednesday, Harley (ticker: HOG) announced $1.78 in earnings per share on $1.65 billion in revenues. Wall Street anticipated sales of $1.37 billion and a share price of roughly $1.40. Operating profit margins increased to 20.6% from 14.9% in the third quarter of 2021 and 17% in the second quarter of 2022, respectively. “ Harley-Davidson delivered a strong third quarter with solid growth for both revenue and operating income, aligned to our Hardwire strategic initiatives,” said CEO Jochen Zeitz in the company’s news release. “We are reaffirming our outlook for the year, and as we approach our 120th anniversary that we will be celebrating in our hometown Milwaukee and around the world.” Harley's goals and plans for enhancing operational performance are called Hardwire. In 2022, Harley anticipates a 20% to 25% increase in operating profits. That suggests operational revenue of around $1 billion in 2022. Currently, Wall Street is simulating around $870 million. Harley has generated operating profit of roughly $900 million so far this year. There is now roughly $100 million left to spend in the fourth quarter. Wall Street presently forecasts an operating profit for the time period of roughly $32 million. Harley stock had lost roughly 2% of its value as of Wednesday's trade, less than the corresponding 19% loss of the S&P 500. Following earnings, options markets predict that shares will change by about 8%, either up or down. In response to the last four quarterly reports, shares have changed by about 7%, either up or down. Over that time, shares have increased four times and decreased once. HOG Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, barrons.com
This Week's Tesla Stock Split Could Be The Best Moment To Buy The Stock! Twitter Stock Price Plunged!

Credit Suisse To Raise 4bn CHF To Fund Restructure, Tesla Inc. Under Criminal Investigation, Trading Of TWTR Shares Will Be Paused

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.10.2022 12:37
Summary: Credit Suisse is essentially dismantling the investment bank. EV with self-driving capabilities was involved in many accidents. Musk has until October 28 to complete his $44 billion acquisition of TWTR. Credit Suisse to restructure Credit Suisse Group AG announced a restructure that will result in a multibillion dollar capital raising, thousands of job cutbacks, and the separation of the investment bank, taking the most drastic moves yet to restore the firm. According to a statement released on Thursday, the company intends to raise 4 billion francs ($4.1 billion) by selling shares to investors, including the Saudi National Bank, and through a rights issue. By splitting up the advice and capital markets businesses and selling the majority of its SPG business to Apollo Global Management Inc. and Pacific Investment Management Co., it is essentially dismantling the investment bank. After a string of significant losses and managerial upheaval destroyed Credit Suisse's reputation as one of the most respected institutions in Europe, the makeover is an urgent effort to rebuild trust. Ulrich Koerner, the bank's chief executive officer, and Chairman Axel Lehmann, who were appointed as crisis managers, now have the difficult task of carrying out the largest restructuring in the bank's recent history while attempting to safeguard the wealth management division that will determine its future. Credit Suisse seeks billions from investors in make-or-break overhaul https://t.co/MSy4Q4h7fT pic.twitter.com/e9mg3eUByl — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 27, 2022 TSLA under criminal investigation The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) released its initial wave of data on car crashes involving vehicles with autonomous driving systems in June of last year as part of its attempts to increase traffic safety while still encouraging innovation. It came out that a very well-liked electric car with self-driving capabilities was involved in a lot more accidents than was previously thought. Ten months of data were covered in the June report. It showed that when employing fully autonomous capabilities like Tesla's Autopilot, ADAS-equipped vehicles crashed 392 times, with Tesla vehicles accounting for 273 of those collisions. It represents around 70% of the cases. Given this context, it was logical but yet surprising to learn that the Department of Justice is looking into Tesla as part of a criminal investigation. The revelation that the Department of Justice is looking into Tesla as part of a criminal probe made sense given this backdrop, but it was nonetheless unexpected. The Justice Department is looking into possible customer misinformation regarding the functionality and security of the self-driving feature. For the mere reason that Tesla emphasizes in its own materials that the cars are not yet capable of completely autonomous driving, it might be challenging to make any form of claim against the company over excessive promises. Tesla is under criminal investigation in the United States over claims that the company's electric vehicles can drive themselves, three people familiar with the matter said https://t.co/HQh5rvn54u pic.twitter.com/oGo5ZKtWqT — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) October 27, 2022 Musk to acquire TWTR by October 28th According to the website of the New York Stock Exchange, trading in Twitter Inc. (TWTR) shares will be paused on Friday because entrepreneur Elon Musk has until October 28 to complete his $44 billion acquisition of the social media platform. Musk, the richest man in the world, visited Twitter's San Francisco offices on Wednesday and implied that he was the company's top executive by changing his profile bio to "Chief Twit." Reuters stated on Tuesday that Musk's attorneys had provided the necessary documentation for the finance pledge to equity investors Sequoia Capital, Binance, Qatar Investment Authority, and others. The closing of the transaction would put an end to Twitter's litigation. Twitter, together with the investors, now anticipate that the transaction will close at the agreed-upon price of $54.20 per share. On Wednesday, the NYSE saw the company's stock close at $53.35 per share. They were trading slightly below Musk's offer price in extended trading, up nearly 1% at $53.90. *TWITTER WILL BE DELISTED FROM THE NYSE ON FRIDAY AFTER MUSK COMPLETES DEAL$TWTR pic.twitter.com/jasBHEMrJp — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 27, 2022 Sources: twitter.com, investing.com, reuters.com, finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com
USD/JPY Reaching 130-135? It Seems It Maybe Not Impossible

Credit Suisse Q3 Earnings Missed Market Expectations Sparking Major In-house Changes

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.10.2022 17:04
Summary: Credit Suisse will cut their investment bank. The company will go to the market to raise capital. Shares were trading at or near record lows. Credit Suisse Q3 Earnings spark major in-house changed In order to restore investor trust and finance a protracted reconfiguration that will result in the elimination of its investment bank and a 9,000-person reduction in headcount, Credit Suisse Group AG decided to turn to investors for a painful multibillion-dollar capital raise. The firm's ambitions to raise 4 billion francs ($4.1 billion) through a rights issue and the sale of shares to investors like the Saudi National Bank caused the stock to fall as much as 16%. By splitting up the advice and capital markets divisions and selling the majority of a trading company to a group headed by Apollo Global Management Inc., it virtually dismantled the investment bank. The actions represent an urgent attempt by Credit Suisse to regain credibility after a string of significant losses and managerial instability destroyed its reputation as one of the most prominent lenders in Europe. Ulrich Koerner, the bank's CEO, and Chairman Axel Lehmann are already being questioned about whether the biggest transformation in the institution's recent history is drastic enough and provides suffering shareholders with enough reward. “The new Credit Suisse will definitely be profitable from 2024 onwards,” Koerner said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua. “We do not want to overpromise and underdeliver, we want to do it the other way around.” As investors processed combined expenses connected to the reorganization of around $6.6 billion and the dilution effect of the share sales, the shares dropped 12% at 1:06 PM in Zurich. With a potential ownership of up to 9.9%, the capital increase may make Saudi National Bank, which is supported by the country's major sovereign wealth fund, one of Credit Suisse's largest shareholders. Given that the shares were trading at or near record lows, bank executives had hoped to avoid raising capital, but after observing the outflow of assets and deposits from rich clients, they ultimately chose to do so in order to strengthen the bank's finances. The bank reported a net loss of 4.03 billion francs for the third quarter and stated that it anticipated a loss for the entire year. The company announced that it will begin cutting 2,700 positions from its employees in the fourth quarter and that by 2025, it expects to have reduced its employment by around 9,000, to 43,000. By that time, it also wants to cut the cost base by 15%, or 2.5 billion Swiss francs. According to analysts at Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse's 2025 goal of a 6% return on tangible equity "appears to lack ambition." The restructure takes place as a result of third-quarter results that highlighted the difficulties ahead. Wealthy clientele left as the investment bank struggled on. The bank reported a quarterly loss of more than $4 billion, which included an impairment of deferred tax assets associated with the restructuring worth 3.7 billion francs. Through 2024, the transformation will cost an additional 2.9 billion francs. CS Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, bloomberg.com
Solid Wage Growth in Poland Signals Improving Labor Market Conditions

Eurozone Inflation Touches Record High, US Treasury, What To Watch At BoE Rate Setting Meeting

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 31.10.2022 12:59
Summary: Consumer prices in the Eurozone reached a new record high. Investors in US government bonds are pleading with the Treasury department to intervene. The BoE will this week publish its latest decision on interest rates. Eurozone inflation rises for 12th consecutive month According to a flash estimate from the European Union's statistics office, consumer prices in the Eurozone reached a new record high for the twelfth consecutive month, driven by a persistent rise in energy prices. In October, annual inflation in the currency region increased by 10.7%, exceeding economists' expectations of 10.2% and up from the previous level of 9.9%. As a result of ongoing tensions regarding the provision of crucial Russian gas flows into Europe after the start of the war in Ukraine, energy costs increased by 41.9% during the month. Food, drink, and tobacco prices all went up 13.1%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile commodities like food and energy, registered at 5.0%, up from the previous reading of 4.8% and also higher than expected. Businesses have displayed symptoms of pessimism about the future, and economists anticipate that the Eurozone will enter a recession this year as a result of spillover effects from this skyrocketing inflation. According to Eurostat's flash statistics, which was also issued on Monday, the third quarter saw an unusually severe slowdown in economic development in the Eurozone. The seasonally adjusted gross domestic product increased by 0.2% when compared to the prior three months, which was less than the 0.8% increase seen in the second quarter and the 1.0% increase expected. In morning trade, the euro decline against the dollar and little changed thereafter. ⚠️BREAKING:*EURO ZONE ANNUAL INFLATION RATE JUMPS TO 10.7% IN OCTOBER, HIGHEST LEVEL ON RECORD 🇪🇺🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹🇪🇸🇳🇱 pic.twitter.com/3qj1Ddy4dr — Investing.com (@Investingcom) October 31, 2022 Investors pleading with US Treasury department Investors in US government bonds are pleading with the Treasury department to intervene in the market in the hopes that this week will bring signs of potential buybacks following months of erratic price fluctuations and little liquidity. The fast rate hikes and quantitative tightening program implemented by the Federal Reserve this year have heightened the tension in the typically subdued $24 trillion Treasury market. When the Treasury announces its funding for the fourth quarter in the coming days, investors are hoping for hints about what it has in store. The cost of borrowing for the US government and the benchmark for prices across asset classes are determined by Treasury rates, which have fluctuated drastically in 2022. Even though the Treasury bond market is supposedly the most liquid in the world, the volatility has made it more difficult and expensive for investors to buy or sell Treasury bonds.Investors, strategists, and primary dealers anticipate that the Treasury will provide some information in the documents it releases this week after reviewing the survey's findings with them last week. The expected financing requirements for the fourth quarter and the Treasury's intentions for issuance will be revealed on Monday. Investors urge US Treasury to boost bond market liquidity with buyback scheme https://t.co/xlPeGVvvK2 — Financial Times (@FT) October 31, 2022 BoE to make UK economy estimates and interest rate decision The Bank of England will this week publish its latest decision on interest rates along with updated estimates for the UK economy in what is the most anxiously awaited monetary policy meeting in years. One of the most volatile periods in recent UK economic history preceded the BoE's most recent interest rate meeting on September 22. Liz Truss' "mini" Budget, which included £45 billion in unfunded tax cuts, caused a spike in government borrowing costs, necessitated an emergency BoE intervention, and increased mortgage rates for homeowners. In the government's autumn statement on November 17, the new prime minister Rishi Sunak promises a new economic plan that will demonstrate how debt would decrease as a share of gross domestic product over the medium term. Thus, without complete knowledge of Sunak's strategy, the BoE Monetary Policy Committee will be largely "flying blind" when it announces its interest rate decision on Thursday. Four things to watch out for are listed below. Interest rate decision. Economic growth and inflation forecasts. Quantitative tightening. Monetary policy management expectations. Four things to watch at the Bank of England’s rate-setting meeting https://t.co/u2hMRgYqu7 — Financial Times (@FT) October 31, 2022 Sources: ft.com, twitter.com, investing.com
Franc Records 11th Consecutive Daily Decline Against the Dollar as US Economic Concerns Mount

Non-transparent ETFs Have Been Struggling, Elon Musk Making Many Changes To Twitter, Pfizer COVID-19 Revenues Rise

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 01.11.2022 16:14
Summary: Since non-transparent ETFs were introduced two years ago, they have had difficulty gaining popularity. Elon Musk continues to make Twitter changes. Tuesday saw Pfizer increase its Covid-19 vaccine sales projection. Non-transparent ETFs Since the initial products were introduced two years ago, non-transparent ETFs have had difficulty gaining popularity among investors, according to data. According to Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research for North America at Morningstar, portfolio-shielding ETFs had $4.4 billion in assets as of September 30, making up around 1.5% of the active ETF market. However, according to Morningstar data, only one ETF, the $2.1 billion Nuveen Growth Opportunities ETF, has roughly half of those assets. After attracting attention from companies including BlackRock, Capital Group, Nuveen, Columbia Threadneedle, and American Century, non-transparent ETFs were given regulatory permission in December 2019. On March 31, 2020, American Century introduced the first actively managed non-transparent ETFs. According to the American Century website, the Focused Dynamic Growth ETF currently has $121 million and the Focused Large Cap Value ETF currently has $200 million. According to Armour, non-transparent ETFs have seen a decline in market share among active ETFs this year. According to him, active ETFs have organically increased by 19.8% year to date through September, outpacing non-active ETFs by 11.7 percentage points. Non-transparent ETFs have had a difficult time amassing assets in part because large broker-dealers have been reluctant to add the products to their systems. UBS, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management all announced this year that they will begin providing a limited selection of portfolio-shielding ETFs on their platforms. Overall, Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, stated that investor response to opaque ETFs has been "lukewarm at best" and "downright cold" at worst. Portfolio-shielding active ETFs struggle to gain ground https://t.co/ksLUzKPPkN — Finance News (@ftfinancenews) November 1, 2022 Twitter CEO continuing to make changes The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Twitter Inc., which billionaire Elon Musk acquired last week, will no longer permit customers of its Blue service to see content without advertisements. In June of last year, Twitter Blue, the platform's first subscription service that provided exclusive access to premium features including the ability to edit tweets, was introduced. Subscribers had access to some publishers' articles without being interrupted by adverts through the service. Last month, the social media site in the US made an edit option available to premium subscribers. According to news sources, Twitter is preparing additional modifications to its $4.99 per month Blue subscription tier, including adding user authentication. Musk added that charging a charge was the best way to "fight the bots & trolls" in a response to author Stephen King on Tuesday, asking if $8 was a price he would pay to be a verified user. $TWTR platform changes under Elon Musk “is literally like throwing spaghetti on the wall and seeing what sticks,” @binance CEO @cz_binance says, adding: “There should be new features every month, every week, every day.” pic.twitter.com/iUsW6pGH9C — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 1, 2022 Pfizer revenue rises due to increase in COVID-19 vaccine sales Tuesday saw Pfizer increase its Covid-19 vaccine sales projection by $2 billion to $34 billion as higher pricing offset a drop in demand outside of the US. The US manufacturer claimed that high sales of several of its other medications and its bivalent booster, which targets the dominant strain of the Omicron type, helped it to somewhat offset the negative effects of a strong dollar. As a consequence of third-quarter results that exceeded analysts' estimates and allayed fears about waning demand for Covid products, the business kept its full-year target of $22 billion for sales of the Covid antiviral medication Paxlovid. Shares of Pfizer increased 3.5% in pre-market trading to reach $48.10. Pfizer reported third-quarter sales of $22.6 billion, which were more than experts had anticipated but were down 6% from the same period a year earlier when the pandemic was at its worst. The business raised its estimate for full-year 2022 earnings to a range between $6.40 and $6.50 per share. Additionally, it reduced its projected revenue to a range of $99.5 billion to $102 billion. 💉 Pfizer raises revenue view on higher-than-expected Covid-19 vaccine sales https://t.co/XlgVgQiGGl via @WSJ $PFE is +3.22% in pre-market trading. — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 1, 2022 Sources: Twitter.com, ft.com, finance.yahoo.com
Disappointing German March macro data increase risk of technical recession

Airbnb Q3 Earnings Beat Market Expectations, ECB Puts Pressure On Banks Regarding Climate Change, Credit Suisse Just Misses Junk Status

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.11.2022 13:58
Summary: Airbnb Q4 earnings look dim. ECB to increase capital requirements for banks if they do not address climate change risks. S&P Global Ratings reduced Credit Suisse Group AG's. Airbnb anticipating poor booking outlook for Q4 Shares of Airbnb Inc. dropped after the firm provided a poor booking outlook for the fourth quarter, signaling that consumer preferences are changing back to urban and international locations rather than the more expensive rentals that were popular during the pandemic. In comparison to the third quarter's rise of 25%, the home-sharing platform said it anticipates the pace of nights and experiences booked will "slow significantly" in the fourth quarter. In the three months that ended in September, Airbnb reported 99.7 million nights and experiences booked, underperforming analysts' expectations of 99.9 million. Prior to the New York stock exchanges opening, the shares decreased by nearly 6% in premarket trading. In trading on Tuesday, the stock increased 2% to settle at $109.05 after falling 35% this year. Additionally, Airbnb stated that it anticipates average daily rates to moderate this quarter as a result of a strong currency and a trend in travelers returning to cities, where rates are often cheaper due to smaller facilities. With the low end of that range falling below Wall Street's estimate of $1.86 billion, the business projected fourth-quarter sales of between $1.80 billion and $1.88 billion. The somber prognosis comes after Airbnb had its most successful quarter and greatest quarterly revenue during the summer. The company's third-quarter earnings of $1.2 billion above analysts' expectations as revenue increased 29% to $2.88 billion. Before the numbers were made public, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Mandeep Singh and Damian Reimertz warned in a note that Airbnb could start competing again with hotels, which are currently seeing more inventory come back online following the pandemic downturn. $ABNB reports Q3 earnings that beat estimates, but comes in a bit low with Q4 guidance sending shares down. 👀 Q4 revenue forecast $1.80B to $1.88B vs $1.86B estimate💵 Revenue $2.88B vs $2.83B estimatehttps://t.co/RzAY1P67Ux — Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 1, 2022 ECB addressing Climate Risk After identifying numerous areas of concern, the European Central Bank increased the pressure on banks by warning them that if they don't address their financial risks related to climate change within the next two years, there will be increased capital requirements and fines. The ECB has sent letters to all of the major banks in the eurozone outlining 25 areas, on average, where it believes they are falling short in tackling climate risks and setting a deadline of 2024 to do so. The ECB announced on Wednesday that a "limited number" of banks have already had their capital requirements increased this year owing to concerns that they have not adequately addressed climate risks. This occurred in accordance with "pillar two" guidance, which, though not required, has a big impact on banks' capital management. The actions signal a substantial increase in the central bank's pressure on eurozone bankers to accelerate their efforts to identify, manage, and disclose climate risks in their balance sheets. Frank Elderson, vice-chair of the ECB's supervisory board, stated in a blog post that "the glass is slowly filling up, but it is not yet even half full." Credit Suisse just misses junk status ECB warns banks of capital hit if they fail to tackle climate risk https://t.co/ttlQoZDm1B — Finance News (@ftfinancenews) November 2, 2022 S&P Global Ratings reduced Credit Suisse Group AG's long-term rating to only one notch above junk status, highlighting the bank's difficulties following the announcement of a dramatic restructuring plan last week. The long-term rating of the Swiss bank was downgraded from BBB to BBB- with a stable outlook. Just one notch separates that from the BB "speculative grade." Following the restructuring's announcement on Thursday, the US ratings agency echoed a number of experts by stating that it saw "significant execution risks amid a deteriorating and uncertain economic and financial environment." Additionally, it indicated that many aspects of asset sales are still "unclear." As investors assessed the hefty costs of the plan, the low return expectations, and the massive dilution, Credit Suisse's new strategy led to the day's worst single-day decrease in share price ever, with shares falling 18%. The bank announced the strategic review as it reported a quarterly loss of 4.03 billion Swiss francs, which included a substantial impairment of deferred tax assets connected to the redesign. The restructure will result in the dissolution of the investment bank and will cost roughly $2.9 billion through 2024. S&P downgrades Credit Suisse Group, Moody's cuts some ratings https://t.co/n12QMnXBx5 pic.twitter.com/ASCCZSV3cg — Reuters (@Reuters) November 2, 2022 Sources: finance.yahoo.com, twitter.com, ft.com, reuters.com
CVs Health and Walgreens Are The Most Recent In The Line Of Settlements Concerning The Opioid Problem

CVs Health and Walgreens Are The Most Recent In The Line Of Settlements Concerning The Opioid Problem

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 02.11.2022 16:35
Summary: CVS Health and Walgreens, have agreed to pay roughly $10 billion. These are the first agreements made by pharmacy chains related to their involvement in the US opioid crisis. CVs Health and Walgreens settle opioid lawsuits The two largest US drugstore chains, CVS Health and Walgreens, have agreed to pay roughly $10 billion to resolve the majority of the ongoing legal disputes relating to the prescription of potent opioid medicines. These are the first agreements made by pharmacy chains related to their involvement in the US opioid crisis, which has resulted in tens of thousands of fatalities in recent years. “The agreement would fully resolve claims dating back a decade or more and is not an admission of any liability or wrongdoing,” the company added, as it released third-quarter results. “CVS Health will continue to defend against any litigation that the final agreement does not resolve.” With payments totaling around $4.79 billion over 15 years, Walgreens announced that it has achieved an agreement in principle to defend against the "vast majority" of opioid lawsuits brought against it by states. Under the deal, it anticipates paying native American tribes an additional $154 million. According to Walgreens, the agreements did not include the firm admitting any wrongdoing or guilt. According to a Tuesday Bloomberg News article, a $12 billion opioid settlement agreement had been reached between CVS, Walmart, and Walgreens. The in-principle agreements reached with CVS and Walgreens "are an important step in our efforts to hold pharmacy defendants accountable for their role in the opioid epidemic," according to the negotiating team in the National Prescription Opiate Litigation, a group of senior attorneys who have been working on the opioid lawsuits. The settlements with CVS and Walgreens are the most recent in a line of settlements concerning the opioid problem. CVs Price Chart Sources: ft.com, finance.yahoo.com
Solid Wage Growth in Poland Signals Improving Labor Market Conditions

BoE Hikes Interest Rates 75bps, ECB Feeling Post-fed Interest Rate Hike Repercussions, Fed Hikes Interest Rates 75bps

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.11.2022 15:49
Summary: The Bank of England increased interest rates by 0.75 percentage points to 3%. The Fed, which has an impact on international markets, must be monitored by the ECB. Jay Powell forewarned that US interest rates may rise higher than anticipated. BoE interest rate hikes The Bank of England increased interest rates by 0.75 percentage points to 3% in order to combat inflation in a way that hasn't been attempted in the past 30 years. The central bank offered unusually strong guidance that interest rates wouldn't need to rise much higher to bring inflation back to its objective of 2%, despite predicting a "particularly tough outlook" with a protracted recession ahead. The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England stated that market estimates for an interest rate peak of 5.25 percent were excessively high. According to the statement, the majority of the committee thought that "additional hikes" could be necessary "for a durable return of inflation to goal, albeit to a peak lower than priced into financial markets." BoE’s latest interest rate hike was was aggressive The BoE's decision followed a similar move by the European Central Bank last week and a 0.75 percentage point increase by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The official interest rate in the UK reached its highest point since late 2008 after being raised to 3%. Aside from a sharply reversible jump on September 16, 1992, often known as "Black Wednesday," it is the biggest increase since 1989. A bigger rise at the meeting "would help to bring inflation back to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, and to minimise the risks of a more lengthy and costly tightening later," according to the meeting minutes, which were approved by seven of the nine MPC members. ⚠️BREAKING:*BANK OF ENGLAND RAISES KEY INTEREST RATE BY 75BPS TO 3.00%, LARGEST RATE HIKE SINCE 1989🇬🇧🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/A3rx8jpeLz — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 3, 2022 ECB facing repercussions from aggressive Fed The U.S. Federal Reserve, which has an impact on international markets, must be monitored by the European Central Bank, but it cannot simply copy its policy decisions, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde on Thursday, following the Fed's guidance for even higher interest rates. On Wednesday, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by another 75 basis points. Fed chair Jerome Powell also stated that borrowing costs would need to increase "higher than previously projected" in order to combat inflation, which caused investors to price in additional ECB rate increases as well. But Lagarde argued that because economic conditions in the 19-country euro zone were different from those in the United States (and the ECB itself raised rates by 75 basis points last week), the ECB could not simply mimic the Fed. This point was also made by ECB board member Fabio Panetta and Bank of Italy governor Ignazio Visco. Lagarde acknowledges ECB was affected by the Fed’s actions Lagarde acknowledged that the ECB was "affected by the repercussions" of Fed action on the financial markets, particularly the decline in the value of the euro relative to the dollar on Thursday. Lagarde reiterated her commitment to bringing inflation down to the ECB's 2% objective by stating that "clearly the exchange rate matters and has to be taken into account in our inflation projections." According to ECB data released on Thursday, the interest rate that banks seek from businesses increased by 55 basis points in September, the largest monthly increase since the creation of the euro, to stand at 2.41%. Since 2015, this was the highest. *ECB PRESIDENT LAGARDE: A RECESSION WON'T BE SUFFICIENT TO SETTLE INFLATION🇪🇺🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹🇪🇸🇳🇱 pic.twitter.com/zcfEzCi1ZB — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 3, 2022 Fed may slow down their interest rate hiking cyc;e Jay Powell forewarned that US interest rates may rise higher than anticipated, but he also left open the prospect that the Federal Reserve might slow down its drive to tighten monetary policy. Speaking after the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points for the fourth time in a row, Powell cautioned that there was still work to be done in bringing down inflation and cited a number of economic indicators to support his claim. Powell did, however, provide a suggestion that policymakers would be open to adopting a less drastic rise at the Fed's upcoming meeting in December. The following meeting or the one after that may mark the beginning of that period. Powell made a crucial point when he noted that before transitioning to lesser hikes, the Fed did not need to wait for several months of lower inflation data. ⚠️BREAKING:*FED CHAIR POWELL SAYS TIME TO SLOW RATE HIKES MAY COME 'AS SOON AS NEXT MEETING'$DIA $SPY $QQQ 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 2, 2022 Sources: twitter.com, investing.com, ft.com
Analysis And Trips For Trading The GBP/USD Pair In Short And Long Positions

US Unemployment Rate Increased To 3.7%, UK Private Wealth Portfolios, PBoC Trying To Gain Access To Top Internet Companies Data

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.11.2022 14:54
Summary: In the biggest economy in the world, the jobless rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7% last month. The real worth of UK private wealth portfolios decreased by up to one-third. Beijing is working to tighten its control over the nation's digital sector. US Unemployment rate rises In October, the U.S. economy created 261,000 new jobs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The carefully watched reading from last Friday was lower than the upwardly revised amount of 315,000 in September but still higher above economists' projections of 200,000. In the biggest economy in the world, the jobless rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7% last month. The number was expected to increase to 3.6%, according to economists. However, a jump in the unemployment rate to 3.7% signaled some easing in labor market conditions, which would allow the Federal Reserve to tilt towards smaller interest rate hikes beginning in December. In October, U.S. firms employed more workers than anticipated. 200,000 jobs were predicted by economists surveyed by Reuters, with estimates ranging from 120,000 to 300,000. After rising 5.0% in September due to the removal of previous year's significant increases from the computation, wages climbed by 4.7% annually in October. Additionally, other pay metrics have cooled off, which is positive for inflation. The Fed impact on Unemployment The Fed announced a fresh 75 basis point increase in interest rates on Wednesday and warned that future increases in borrowing costs will be necessary to combat inflation, but it also hinted that it may be nearing the end of the sharpest tightening of monetary policy in 40 years. Because businesses have been replacing workers who would have gone, job growth has remained strong despite a decline in domestic demand and an increase in borrowing prices. However, with recession threats rising, this practice may soon come to an end. According to a poll released by the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday, some businesses in the services sector "are delaying backfilling available positions" because of the unstable economic climate. ⚠️BREAKING:*U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 3.7% AS ECONOMY ADDS 261,000 JOBS IN OCTOBER 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/Z0fiqgAI5X — Investing.com (@Investingcom) November 4, 2022 UK Private wealth portfolios under pressure In the first nine months of this year, the real worth of UK private wealth portfolios decreased by up to one-third on average as people's purchasing power was hammered by a combination of investment losses, inflation, and a weak pound. According to research by Asset Risk Consultants (ARC), which examined the performance of strategies employed by more than 100 significant UK wealth managers, UK wealth management portfolios lost about 10% on average in the year ending in September, but price increases and the decline in the value of the pound against the US dollar increased the losses. The numbers demonstrate that for UK investors this year, inflation and currency fluctuations have destroyed much more real value than the concrete losses on investment portfolios. Investors, according to Harrison, frequently think of their wealth in terms of a fixed amount and fail to mentally adapt when the purchasing power of their assets changes. The sector responsible for managing the wealth of wealthy families is predicated on the principle of protecting money, therefore the losses will cause wealth managers and their customers to have difficult conversations. UK private wealth portfolios down by up to a third https://t.co/TnUgAX5XGA — Finance News (@ftfinancenews) November 4, 2022 PBoC trying to control digital sector The Chinese central bank is having trouble persuading more than a dozen top internet companies to meet a deadline in December for sharing user data with state-backed credit-scoring firms. Beijing is working to tighten its control over the nation's digital sector and consumer financing, which is why there is a dispute over who should govern access to the internet companies' enormous troves of user data. According to insiders briefed on the negotiations, the People's Bank of China asked Tencent, Meituan, and other significant platforms to provide user data with two state-backed businesses, Baihang and Pudao, by the beginning of next month. This data includes everything from shopping records to travel histories. PBoC struggles to impose personal data regime on China’s tech groups https://t.co/Olv9Tl3iMK — Finance News (@ftfinancenews) November 4, 2022 Sources: ft.com, investing.com, twitter.com
Apple Stock Price, Microsoft, Amazon And Tesla (TSLA) Added A Lot Since July! How Deep Could EUR/USD Drop?

Telsa (TSLA) stock price has tanked 12% since Musk took control of Twitter (TWTR) on October 27

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 08.11.2022 18:59
Summary: Twitter does not make money like Tesla. The serial entrepreneur made an effort to reassure Tesla's supporters and investors . Investor confidence in Musk is lacking The maker of high-end electric vehicles appears to be going through a similar experience to that of an orphaned kid or a beloved who has fallen from grace. Elon Musk, the company's dynamic and forward-thinking co-founder and CEO, appears to have lost interest in it. Put the blame on Twitter (TWTR), which needs a lot of attention due to its enormous influence on public and political life. While Twitter does not make money like Tesla, it is nonetheless seen as our generation's equivalent of the town square, where trend-setters and opinion leaders congregate. Twitter sets the daily political agenda and the conversational subjects that eventually predominate in mainstream media coverage. Responsibility also comes with this authority. You are responsible for the content management policy, which requires constant vigilance. Any error in the content that is put on the platform has the potential to spark controversy, which can be difficult and time-consuming to resolve. Musk paid too much for Twitter—$44 billion. As part of the leveraged buyout, the billionaire owes around $13 billion in debt, which is secured by his remaining Tesla stock. He has been looking for ways to make money for the social network since he took control on October 27. But as Musk becomes more active on Twitter, Tesla's stock price declines. At the Baron Investment Conference on November 4, the billionaire claimed that since he bought Twitter, his workload had increased from "78 hours a week to perhaps 120." The serial entrepreneur made an effort to reassure Tesla's supporters and investors by claiming that he was still actively involved in the company's management. The message didn't reassure anyone. Since that time, Wall Street has seen a continuous decline in the price of Tesla stock. Tesla shares dropped to $196.66 at the close of trade on November 7—their lowest price in 52 weeks. Since Musk sealed the Twitter agreement on October 27, Tesla stock has fallen 12.4%. Tesla shares have lost a total of 41.2% of their value, or $197.08, since Musk revealed his offer on April 25. This results in a market value decline of about $436 billion. The holding company of renowned investor Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), surpassed Tesla on November 7 to become the sixth-largest corporation in the world by market capitalization. TSLA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com
The US Dollar Index Is Producing A Reasonable Bullish Divergence

US core and headline inflation data missed market expectations in both the YoY and MoM figures

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.11.2022 14:42
Summary: The CPI inflation data missed market expectations for October. Initial market reaction in the wake of the release of the data. US CPI data missed market expectations Since the Dollar is struggling to maintain rallies, a significant positive surprise from Thursday's inflation data is necessary for the bulls to retake the lead. Markets anticipated an increase of 0.6% month-over-month for October, bringing the year-over-year gain to 8.0%, slightly less than September's 8.2%, when the U.S. inflation data was revealed at 13:30 GMT. It is anticipated that the crucial core inflation number would come in at 0.5% month over month and 6.5% year over year.   Because the actual number did not match the estimates for both the headline and core inflation rates which are the Fed's preferred measure—however, excludes food and energy—were expected to be lower but still high. Anything above 8% and 6.5%, however, might reverse the recent USD slump and keep the Fed on the hawkish side of things. Since the FOMC meeting last week, the peak rates for the Fed in 2023 have decreased, moving from 5.1% to a level closer to 5%. US CPI inflation MoM came in at 0.3%, missing market expectations and the YoY figure came in at 6.3%, also missing market expectations. This could mean that the halt in the US dollar rally may extend further. The markets reaction to the release of the CPI data The mechanics for the Dollar are straightforward: a beat would have been consistent with a rise as investors are compelled to plan for future interest rate increases from the U.S. Federal Reserve. A negative surprise was expected given the weaker dollar and the idea that "peak rates" have finally been reached. The size of the variance is crucial since it determines how responsive currency markets are. The initial market reaction saw the EUR/USD currency pair strengthened as well as with the GBP/USD pair, S&P 500 dropped and the USD/JPY weakened in the wake of the release of this data. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Binance Academy: Coin Burn - What Is It?

FTX crash causing its auditors to come into question

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 14.11.2022 17:45
Summary: FTX had its 2021 financial reports audited. A run on customer deposits began the downfall of FTX. The downfall of the FTX crypto Two US accounting companies that the cryptocurrency exchange claimed it had hired to examine its books have come under scrutiny as a result of FTX's demise. FTX asserted that Armanino, one of the 20 largest accounting companies in the nation by sales, and Prager Metis, which bills itself as the first accounting company to open a headquarters in the metaverse, had audited its 2021 financial reports. Even though the accounting regulations for digital assets are frequently ambiguous and businesses are still in their infancy, the two firms are among many in the US that have professed expertise in digital assets in a bid to seek business from the rising number of crypto enterprises. Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX, hailed the audit of the company's financial results as a turning point last year, but neither the accounts nor the auditors' names were made public until the day before FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday. When Forbes magazine was putting together a ranking of cryptocurrency exchanges earlier this year, the publication claimed that FTX gave it "a trove of information on its operations, including most of the companies it did business with, when its last audits were, and details on its regulatory licenses." (FTX eventually came in sixth.) FTX accounting firm is in the spotlight Both accounting firms declined to comment on the extent of their work for FTX or the time since they last provided an audit opinion. A run on customer deposits at its international exchange that followed revelations about the exchange's complex connections to other parts of Bankman-crypto Fried's enterprise brought down FTX. According to those acquainted with the company's finances, his trading outfit Alameda Research owing FTX $10 billion this week. FTX token price chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com
Apple May Surprise Investors. Analysts Advise Caution

European chipmakers seek stability in the wake of new US export restrictions

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 15.11.2022 19:13
Summary: European chipmakers said they are looking for stability for their operations. Washington's export restrictions hinder operations of global supply chains. Chipmakers seeking stability Leading European chipmakers said they are looking for stability for their operations in China as Washington's export restrictions hinder operations of global supply chains. STMicroelectronics, Infineon, and NXP Semiconductors' chief executives stated on Monday that while they are in compliance with Washington's export restrictions against China's semiconductor industry, they do not have any plans to stop doing business in the Asian nation, which has the second-largest economy in the world. One of the largest semiconductor trade fairs in Europe, Electronica in Munich, hosted the CEO Roundtable special event where the remarks were made. Early in October, the US Department of Commerce began a fresh wave of export control measures to limit China's capacity to develop cutting-edge computer and artificial intelligence technology by limiting access to US technologies. As their products for the Chinese market are more about mature chip production technology than the advanced ones targeted by Washington, European companies who supply tools used in chip production, like ASML, and European chipmakers are less affected by the new laws than American companies. Geopolitical unrest for European chipmakers However, European chip companies are concerned that the geopolitical unrest brought on by the escalating hostilities between Washington and Beijing will stymie their business activities in China. The Joe Biden administration reportedly tried to establish a trilateral deal with Japan and the Netherlands on Sunday, according to the Financial Times, in order to make it more challenging for China to produce cutting-edge semiconductors for military applications. Despite the fact that the new regulations have no impact on NXP's operations in China, Sievers said the company has advised its US-based employees to stop communicating with clients who are engaged in the semiconductor manufacturing industry in China since the regulations went into effect last month. Sources: ft.com
Musk testified in Delaware court on Wednesday claiming he had little say in the Tesla payout that helped him become the world's richest man

Musk testified in Delaware court on Wednesday claiming he had little say in the Tesla payout that helped him become the world's richest man

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 16.11.2022 18:54
Summary: Elon Musk testified that he was not involved in the pay negotiations. Shareholders claim the board is made up of Musks ‘pals’. Musk testified on Wednesday On Wednesday, Elon Musk testified that he was not involved in the negotiations among Tesla board members about a 2018 compensation plan that gave him billions in stock options and helped him become the richest person in the world. Speaking in a Wilmington, Delaware courtroom, Mr. Musk rebutted claims made in a shareholder complaint that the board of the electric car company was comprised primarily of his pals and other close associates who carried out his orders. In the lawsuit in which Mr. Musk is testifying, the focus is on a compensation package that provided Mr. Musk stock options that allowed him the ability to purchase nearly $50 billion worth of Tesla shares if the firm fulfilled specific sales, profit, and share price gain benchmarks. The agreement was one of the biggest of its kind at the time, and many other business boards have used it as a model to reward top executives. Attorneys for the shareholder Richard Tornetta, who filed the lawsuit, claim in court filings that Mr. Musk began discussing his remuneration package with Ira Ehrenpreis, the director who oversaw the board's compensation committee, in April 2017. Additionally, the plaintiff's attorneys claimed in court documents that Tesla directors and executives testified that the board did not anticipate Mr. Musk leaving the organization and had not started to find suitable successors to him. The company's shares started rising substantially more than a year after the 2018 Tesla compensation agreement was implemented, increasing from about $21 to a record of about $410 in November 2021. Since then, it has decreased by roughly 50% and currently costs around $190. Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick of the Delaware Court of Chancery is hearing the issue. She also ruled over the brief legal action Twitter brought against Mr. Musk in July to compel him to complete the acquisition of the social media giant after he attempted to back out of the transaction. Last month, Mr. Musk closed the transaction. TSLA price chart SourceS: finance.yahoo.com, nytimes.com
UK PMIs Signal Economic Deceleration, Pound Edges Lower

NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 earnings results outperformed part of the markets forecasts

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 17.11.2022 17:59
Summary: Revenue surpassed analysts' projections, earnings per share lagged behind. Nivida’s Q4 revenue estimates fell short of investor expectations. NVIDIA Q3 earnings The industry leader in graphics chips, Nvidia (NVDA), released its Q3 earnings results after the market closed on Wednesday. While revenue surpassed analysts' projections, earnings per share lagged behind. According to data provided by Bloomberg, the company outperformed Wall Street forecasts in the following areas: revenue ($5.93 billion vs. $5.79 billion projected). EPS after adjustments: $0.58 vs. $0.70 anticipated. Gaming income was $1.57 billion as opposed to the predicted $1.32 billion. Revenue from data centers: $3.83 billion versus $3.7 billion anticipated. With a $6 billion forecast, Nvidia's Q4 sales fell just shy of Wall Street estimates. Analysts anticipated $6.09 billion. Shares of Nvidia increased by about 2% after the revelation. In the quarter, income from data centers increased by about 31% year over year, but revenue from gaming fell by 51%. As consumer and commercial demand for electronics has decreased following the enormous rise the sector experienced during the epidemic, chip stocks have taken a beating this year. After stocking up during shutdowns, consumers don't need as many computers, and businesses already have plenty of equipment for their remote and hybrid workers. The future of NVIDIA Nvidia reduced chip manufacturing in Q2 while CEO Jensen Huang informed investors that the business was attempting to better match inventory to chip demand. During the pandemic, Nvidia's graphics chips were in such great demand that they were fetching hundreds of dollars more than their retail costs. However, as people resumed their pre-pandemic lifestyles, demand for chips decreased and prices returned to normal. Nvidia is also making efforts to maintain its ability to sell its premium goods in China. As a substitute for the A100 chip, which the U.S. government claimed was too potent to be shipped to China, Nvidia started selling its new A800 processor there during Q3 of this year. The administration is concerned that China will employ the technology for military purposes. NVDA Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com
The Special Edition Of The Saxo Market Call Podcast: The Wild Year Of 2022 For Commodities And What May Be In Store In 2023

Oil bounces off a 10-month low on OPEC not considering increasing oil output

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 21.11.2022 18:58
Summary: Oil prices rose from a 10-month low on Monday. G7 countries are planning to cap the price of Russian crude. OPEC are not planning an increase in oil output After Saudi Arabia "categorically" dismissed a report that Opec was considering an increase in output to help offset the loss of Russian supply, oil prices rose from a 10-month low on Monday. The international standard for crude oil, Brent, initially fell 6% to $82.79 per barrel before reducing its loss to 2% and trading at $85.95. The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, fell by a similar amount but later pared its losses to trade down about 2% at $78.50. Each benchmark's price fell to its lowest intraday level since January as a result. This was before Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended the world's crude markets and caused prices to skyrocket. After the Wall Street Journal revealed that Saudi Arabia and other Opec producers were debating increasing output by up to 500,000 barrels per day at the group's meeting in Vienna on December 4, the market became volatile. The cartel's de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, later claimed that it was "well known" that no decisions were discussed before meetings. Additionally, it would occur the day before the EU is scheduled to impose an embargo on oil exports from Russia and the G7 countries are planning to cap the price of Russian crude. The US dollar index, which compares the US dollar to six other currencies, increased 1% on Monday, continuing the comeback from the previous week, even though the US dollar is still down roughly 3% for the month of November. The lower-than-expected US inflation number for October and expectations that China might be about to loosen its zero-Covid stance had fueled speculation that the dollar may have peaked in late September. This week, however, investors had less confidence in the latter after the provincial capitals of Shijiazhuang and Guangzhou implemented stricter Covid controls to reduce cases. Sources: ft.com
Dr. Copper: Building a Foundation Amidst Commodity Challenges

Elon Musk net worth has dropped by 37% in 2022

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.11.2022 19:46
Summary: Musk hasn't been the same since he lost his position at the $200 billion club. Tesla shares are being weighed down by Musk’s twitter takeover. Musk’s fortune is declining with Teslas share value He was the only member for more than ten months of the world's most exclusive financial club, which has never had more than two members present at once. Up until a few weeks ago, the CEO of Tesla - Get Free Report and owner of the microblogging website Twitter had been a frequent visitor there. The $200 billion club that is. Musk hasn't been the same since he lost his position there. If the eccentric visionary is still the richest man in the world, his money has been declining. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk possessed a fortune of $170 billion as of Nov. 21. But this year, his net worth dropped by $101 billion, or 37%. Since Musk announced his takeover attempt on April 25, Tesla shares have dropped nearly 50% to $167.87, resulting in a $525 billion decline in market capitalization. Tesla shares have fallen 25% after the billionaire closed the Twitter transaction on October 27, representing a loss in market value of $180 billion in less than a month. The price of Tesla shares is down 52.4% overall for the year. Since Musk took on $13 billion in personal debt to fund the acquisition, his early moves at Twitter produced confusion, which made it even harder for him to turn the site profitable as soon as possible. He implemented waves of layoffs, issued a deadline to workers, and reactivated the account of former President Donald Trump, who had been blocked by the social network following the events of January 6, 2021 on Capitol Hill. Two-thirds of the staff, or 5,000 workers, left as a result of all this. The seasoned businessman recently said that since gaining control of Twitter, he had little time to sleep. The ongoing decrease in Tesla stock, which accounts for a sizable portion of Musk's wealth, is hurting him. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com
TEST

Wealthy clients are withdrawing assets from Credit Suisse accounts

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 23.11.2022 18:48
Summary: Wealthy clients have withdrawn up to 10% of their assets from Credit Suisse. The bank has been using liquidity buffers. Credit Suisse stocks are suffering. Credit suisse stock price is taking a dive Since the beginning of October, wealthy clients have withdrawn up to 10% of their assets, according to the troubled Swiss bank Credit Suisse, which has estimated a pre-tax loss of up to SFr1.5 billion ($1.6 billion) for the fourth quarter. The bank stated in its fourth profit warning since January that the size of the client outflows, which came after a series of social media rumors about its financial health, had caused the bank to use up liquidity buffers at the group and legal entity level. According to Credit Suisse, it "fell short of some legal entity-level regulatory criteria." According to the statement, the wealth management division has experienced outflows totaling roughly SFr63.5 billion, or 10% of the assets under management at the end of the third quarter. The bank lost about SFr84 billion ($89 billion) in assets across the board as clients in wealth management, asset management, and retail banking switched their cash holdings, investments, and deposits to rivals. According to the statement, the wealth management division has experienced withdrawals totaling roughly SFr63.5 billion, or 10% of the assets under control at the end of the third quarter. The bank also reaffirmed its capital ratio guideline from last month, which aimed for a common equity tier one ratio of more than 13.5% by 2025 and at least 13% from 2023 to 2025 as a measure of financial stability. It did, however, show that since the end of September, the liquidity capital ratio, which measures a company's capacity to absorb short-term stress, had dropped from 192% to a daily average of 140%. Regulators mandate that the bank maintain a percentage above 100%. CS Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com
Euro eyes Services PMIs

Twitter’s closure of Brussels headquarters raises concerns

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 24.11.2022 15:52
Summary: Elon Musk shut down Twitter's entire Brussels headquarters. Concerns about whether twitter has the manpower to ensure adherence to local legislation. Twitter sparking online safety issues After a disagreement over how the social network's content should be regulated in the Union, Elon Musk shut down Twitter's entire Brussels headquarters. According to the Financial Times, Julia Mozer and Dario La Nasa, who were in charge of Twitter's digital policy in Europe, left the business last week. The executives were instrumental in getting the business to abide by the landmark EU Digital Services Act, which went into effect last week and established new guidelines for Big Tech companies to protect users' privacy online. At the beginning of the month, other executives had already left the tiny Brussels headquarters after Elon Musk cut the number of employees in the company in half, from 7,500 to about 3,750, in the weeks following his £38 billion takeover. The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX tweeted that "the bird is liberated" after completing his platform acquisition. Thierry Breton, a European commissioner, curtly reminded everyone of the EU's content-moderation standards shortly after that and said, "In Europe, the bird will fly by our rules." As he began a hiring push, Mr. Musk had previously stated that Twitter's recent round of layoffs would end this week. Twitter’s global legislation The departures from Brussels are indicative of a global trend that started in India and moved to France, where regional Twitter executives who held important positions dealing with government officials suddenly left the company in recent weeks as a result of sweeping layoffs. This has raised concerns about whether the business has the manpower to ensure adherence to local legislation intended to monitor internet material, raising the possibility of legal action and regulatory action against the business. Data showing a 5% annual decline in hate speech removals from Twitter was released by the European Commission on Thursday. These problems come as Musk's attempts to overhaul Twitter's operations have encountered difficulties, particularly with regard to the user identity verification process. Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com
EUR/USD Faces Ongoing Decline Amid Budget and Market Turbulence

Meta fined by Irish regulators amidst privacy concerns

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.11.2022 19:04
Summary: Meta has frequently been the target of privacy regulators around the world. Irish privacy authorities announced a fine for Meta. Meta fined by Ireland’s privacy authority Ireland's privacy authority has fined Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, €265 million for its treatment of user data, bringing the total amount the technology giant has been fined by European regulators to close to €1 billion. The Irish Data Protection Commission's announcement of the fine on Monday brings to a close an investigation that began in April of last year after information about more than 500 million Facebook and Instagram users was posted online. Since the company's European headquarters are located in Dublin, Ireland's data watchdog frequently leads the charge in Europe. Meta has frequently been the target of privacy regulators around the world. The most recent punishment is a further setback for Meta, which earlier this month let go more than 11,000 employees as it restructured its operations in response to a decrease in revenues and intense competition from rivals like TikTok. From $10.39 billion the year before, Meta's net income decreased to $6.69 billion. The Irish fine is related to a feature that allows users to import contacts from their phones into the Facebook or Instagram app in order to find friends and acquaintances. 2019 saw the publication on a hacking forum of the personal information of 533 million people from 106 different countries, including names, addresses, and some email addresses. The vulnerability on this feature, where data could be gathered by outside parties through a procedure called scraping, was later fixed by Facebook. Companies who violate the bloc's privacy laws risk fines of up to 4% of their global revenue. Other countries have pursued privacy violations as well. The largest ever fine for violating the EU's GDPR regulations was levied against Amazon last year by Luxembourg, who fined the company €746 million for violating data privacy laws. Meta Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ft.com
Sunrun's Path to Recovery: Analysts Place Bets on High Growth Amidst Renewable Energy Challenges

HSBC to sell its Canadian operations for $10 billion to the Royal Bank of Canada

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.11.2022 19:28
Summary: HSBC has agreed to sell its Canadian operations to RBC. HSBC’s share price increased on Tuesday. RBC's acquisition represents the country's first significant domestic transaction in ten years. HSBC to sell its canadian operations to RBC As the lender curtails its global network outside of Asia in response to demands from its largest investor to separate, HSBC has agreed to sell its Canadian operations to Royal Bank of Canada for $10 billion. On hearing about the purchase, HSBC's shares increased by over 5%. The bank also indicated that it would return some of the proceeds to investors. With the acquisition, RBC gained 130 locations and more than 780,000 retail and business clients. If authorities accept the merger, RBC, who is now Canada's largest lender by assets, would strengthen its position. The biggest stakeholder at HSBC, the Chinese insurer Ping An, has been exerting consistent pressure on Quinn and chair Mark Tucker to separate the bank's Asian and western operations. In an era of hostile US-China geopolitics, Ping An has criticized the bank for years of subpar performance, chronically high costs, and a declining share price, arguing that the bank can no longer efficiently operate by straddling east and west. The sale in Canada comes after comparable divestitures of unprofitable consumer businesses in France and the US. When HSBC sold its French retail network to Cerberus for €1 last year, it suffered a $3 billion loss. The business was Canada's sixth-largest bank with assets of CAD134 billion, and RBC's acquisition of it represents the country's first significant domestic transaction in ten years. Most lenders have chosen to expand in the US instead of Canada due to concerns about competition in that country's highly consolidated banking sector. BNP Paribas and Bank of Montreal reached an agreement last year to sell the San Francisco-based Bank of the West for $16.3 billion. HSBC Price Chart Sources: ft.com, finance.yahoo.com
The Markets Still Hope That The Fed May Consider Softer Decision

Eurozone inflation declines for the first time in 17 months indicating that a peak has been reached

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 30.11.2022 19:09
Summary: Latest eurozone inflation reading could suggest a peak has been reached. Eurozone inflation came in at 10% for October. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 0.5 percentage points. Eurozone inflation may have reached its peak The European Central Bank (ECB) may be able to switch to smaller interest rate increases next month as a result of the eurozone's inflation declining for the first time in 17 months and suggesting that the largest price spike in a generation has peaked. According to data released by the EU's statistics agency on Wednesday, a slowdown in energy and services prices led inflation in the single currency bloc to fall more than predicted to 10% in November, down from a record 10.6% in October. Recently, there has been increased optimism that inflation in the eurozone is falling due to a decline in wholesale energy prices in Europe and the alleviation of supply chain bottlenecks. Additionally, US inflation decreased in October, and worldwide data signs point to the pinnacle of this year's raging global inflation. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 0.5 percentage points when its governing council meets on December 15 after two consecutive 0.75 point increases, according to economists, as a result of the slowing rate of inflation in the eurozone. However, price rise in the region is still above the ECB's 2% target, and some officials contend that in order to prevent a harmful wage-price spiral from taking root, rates must be rapidly raised even as inflation slows. The widely watched core inflation rate, which excludes more erratic energy and food costs to provide analysts with a clearer picture of underlying pricing pressures, remained steady at 5%. Sources: ft.com, twitter.com
Debt Ceiling Drama! How the Bond Market Reacts and What It Means for Rates

Debt Ceiling Drama! How the Bond Market Reacts and What It Means for Rates

ING Economics ING Economics 30.05.2023 08:38
Rates Spark: Debt ceiling deal adds to bond angst A deal to raise the US debt ceiling increases selling pressure on Treasuries, but will also result in tighter financial conditions for the economy. This opens upside to EUR rates but a soggy economic backdrop means wider rate differentials near-term.   Once approved, the debt limit deal paves the way to a liquid crunch  The deal between President Biden and House leader McCarthy amounts to the removal of a tail risk for financial markets, that of a US default. Even if this was a tiny probability event to begin with, it'll allow markets to focus on the more important debate: whether the Fed is indeed done with its hiking cycle. The budget deal, which lifts the debt limit for two years and caps some categories of government spending, still needs to be approved by the House tomorrow.   The outcome of the vote is uncertain but the likely opposition by some Republicans means Democrat votes will be key. We expect the run-up to the vote to see Treasury Yields gradually climb higher if more lawmakers come out in favour of the deal.   Money markets can expect a $500bn liquidity drain over the coming months Beyond tomorrow, US rates will quickly look past the deal and turn their attention to the Treasury's task of rebuilding its cash buffer at the Fed. Two aspects matter here. On the liquidity front, money markets can expect a $500bn drain over the coming months as more debt is issued. In a context of $95bn/month Quantitative Tightening (QT) and of likely tightening of at least some banks' funding conditions, this should amount to an additional drag on financial conditions for the broader economy.   This should ultimately draw a line under the US Treasury selloff but, should the new borrowing come with an increase in maturity, some of that support may be weakened.   The case for a June hike has strengthened after Friday's higher than expected core PCE print and Treasuries are set to trade softly into Friday's jobs report as recent prints have demonstrated the labour market's resilience. 4% yield for 10Y now seems a more achievable level.   Weak European data prevents EUR rates from rising as fast as their US peers        
Gold's Resilience Tested Amid Rising Dollar and Bond Yields

CEE: US Dollar Continues to Haunt the Region's FX Market

ING Economics ING Economics 30.05.2023 09:01
CEE: US dollar remains the region's nightmare The second print of first quarter GDP in the Czech Republic will be published today. Besides the GDP breakdown, we will also see the wage bill, which has been mentioned several times by the Czech National Bank as a potential reason for a rate hike in June.   Tomorrow, inflation for May and the details of first quarter GDP in Poland will be published. We expect headline inflation to fall from 14.7% to 13.0% YoY, below market expectations, mainly due to fuel and energy prices. On Thursday, we will see PMI numbers across the region, where we expect a slight deterioration in sentiment across the board.   Later, we will see state budget data in the Czech Republic, which posted its worst-ever result in April, raising questions about additional government bond issuance. The European Parliament is also scheduled to hold a session on Thursday, which is expected to cover the Hungarian EU presidency and is also likely to touch on the topic of EU money and the rule of law.   The FX market, as usual in recent weeks, will be dominated by the global story and the US dollar. So, even this week, CEE FX will not be in a bed of roses. We still see the Polish zloty as the most vulnerable, which despite some weakening in the past week remains near record highs. The market has built up a significant long position in PLN over the past two months.   Plus, we may hear more election noise. Moreover, the significant fall in inflation should push the interest rate differential lower. Thus, we see EUR/PLN around 4.540.   The Czech koruna remains the most sensitive currency in the region against the US dollar, which should be the main driver this week. On the other hand, the reversal in the rate differential has been indicating a reversal in EUR/CZK for a few days now.   Thus, at least a stable EUR/USD could allow the koruna to move toward 23.600. The Hungarian forint can expect a headline attack from the European Parliament this week, and given the current strong levels, we could easily see weaker levels again closer to 375 EUR/HUF.   However, we believe the market will use any spike to build long positions in HUF again.
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Wane, German Business Climate Declines

US Debt Limit Agreement Sets the Tone for Risk Demand, Dollar Sentiment Shifts

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 30.05.2023 09:32
The main news of the weekend was the agreement on the US debt limit, which may serve as a basis for increased risk demand at the beginning of the week. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on Wednesday.   It was reported that the debt ceiling will be approved until the 2024 presidential elections. Non-defense spending will remain at current levels in 2024 and will increase by only 1% in 2025. This is a compromise between Republican demands for sharp spending cuts and Democratic intentions to raise taxes.   The aggregate short position in the US dollar decreased by 3.3 billion to -12.1 billion during the reporting week. Overall, sentiment towards the dollar remains negative, but the trend may have changed.     It is also worth noting a decrease in the long position on gold by 4 billion to -31.7 billion, which is also a factor in favor of the US dollar. The core PCE deflator increased by 0.4% MoM, which is slightly higher than the consensus forecast of 0.3%.   Despite the faster-than-expected price growth, real consumer spending rose by 0.5% MoM, surpassing the expected 0.3%. The rise in the PCE deflator indicates that the fight against inflation is still far from over. In a 3-month annualized expression, the core PCE deflator stands at 4.3%, the same as in April 2022. The combination of higher spending and faster price growth is expected to lead to the Federal Reserve raising rates in June. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, commenting on the released data, stated that "the data that came out this morning suggests that we still have work to do."   The CME futures market estimates a 63% probability of a Fed rate hike in June, compared to 18% the previous week, making the strengthening of the dollar in the changed conditions more than likely. Monday is a banking holiday in the US, so by the end of the day, volatility will decrease, and we do not expect strong movements. EUR/USD The ECB maintains a firm stance on continuing rate hikes as part of its fight against inflation.   On June 1, preliminary inflation data for the Eurozone will be published, and the forecast suggests a slowdown in core inflation from 5.6% to 5.5%. If the data release aligns with expectations, it will lower the ECB rate forecasts and put additional pressure on the euro.   The net long position on the euro decreased by 2.013 billion to 23.389 billion during the reporting week, marking the first significant reduction in the past 10 weeks. The calculated price is moving further south, indicating a high probability of further euro weakening.     EUR/USD has predictably declined to 1.0730, where support held, but we expect another attempt to test its strength, which will likely be more successful. Within a short-term correction, the euro may rise to resistance at 1.0735 or 1.0830, but the upward movement is likely to be short-lived and followed by another downward wave. Our long-term target is seen in the support zone of 1.0480/0520.   GBP/USD The decline in inflation in the UK is once again being called into question. The core Consumer Price Index rose from 6.2% YoY to 6.8% in April, with yields sharply increasing. The retail sales report for April, published on Friday, showed that the slowdown in consumer demand remains more of an aim than a reality. Retail sales excluding fuel increased by 0.8% MoM, significantly higher than the forecast of 0.3%.   If it weren't for the sharp decline in energy demand, both the monthly and annual retail growth would have been noticeably higher than expected. Monday is a banking holiday in the UK, and there are no macroeconomic data expected this week that could influence Bank of England rate forecasts.   Therefore, the pound will be traded more in consideration of global rather than domestic factors. We do not expect high volatility or significant movements. The net long position on the pound slightly decreased by 84 million to 899 million during the reporting week. The bullish bias is small, and the positioning is more neutral than bullish. The calculated price is below the long-term average and is downward-oriented.     The pound has predictably moved towards the support zone at 1.2340/50, but the decline has slowed down at this level. We expect the decline to continue, with the nearest targets being the technical levels at 1.2240 and 1.2134. There is currently insufficient basis for a resumption of growth.  
ADP Employment Surges with 497,000 Gain, Nonfarm Payrolls Awaited - 07.07.2023

European Markets Sink Amid Recession Concerns and Oil Price Slump

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 31.05.2023 08:09
With the White House and Republican leaders agreeing a deal on the debt ceiling at the weekend markets are now obsessing about whether the deal will get the necessary votes to pass into law, as partisan interests line up to criticise the deal.   With the deadline for a deal now said to be next Monday, 5th June a vote will need to go forward by the end of the week, with ratings agencies already sharpening their pencils on downgrades for the US credit rating. European markets sank sharply yesterday along with bond yields, as markets started to fret about a recession, while oil prices sank 4% over demand concerns. US markets also struggled for gains although the Nasdaq 100 has continued to outperform as a small cohort of tech stocks contrive to keep US markets afloat. As we look towards today's European open and the end of the month, we look set for further declines after Asia markets slid on the back of another set of weak China PMIs for May. We'll also be getting another look at how things are looking with respect to economic conditions in Europe, as well as an insight into some key inflation numbers, although core prices will be missing from this snapshot. French Q1 GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% while headline CPI inflation for May is expected to slow from 6.9% to 6.4%. Italian Q1 GDP is also expected to be confirmed at 0.5, and headline CPI for May is expected to slow from 8.7% to 7.5%. We finish up with the flash CPI inflation numbers from Germany, which is also expected to see a slowdown in headline from 7.6% to 6.7% in May. While this is expected to offer further encouragement that headline inflation in Europe is slowing, that isn't the problem that is causing investors sleepless nights. It's the level of core inflation and for that we'll have to wait until tomorrow and EU core CPI numbers for May, which aren't expected to show much sign of slowing.   We'll also get another insight into the US jobs markets and the number of vacancies in April, which is expected to fall from 9.59m in March to 9.4m. While a sizeable drop from the levels we were seeing at the end of last year of 11m, the number of vacancies is still over 2m above the levels 2 years ago, and over 3m above the levels they were pre-pandemic. The size of this number suggests that the labour market still has some way to go before we can expect to see a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate off its current low levels of 3.4%. EUR/USD – slipped to the 1.0673 area before rebounding with the 1.0610 area the next key support. We need to see a rebound above 1.0820 to stabilise.   GBP/USD – rebounded from the 1.2300 area with further support at the April lows at 1.2270. Pushed back to the 1.2450 area and the 50-day SMA, before slipping back. A move through 1.2460 is needed to open up the 1.2520 area.   EUR/GBP – slid to a 5-month low yesterday at 0.8628 just above the next support at 0.8620. A move below 0.8620 opens up the December 2022 lows at 0.8558. Main resistance remains at the 0.8720 area.   USD/JPY – ran into some selling pressure at 140.90 yesterday, slipping back to the 139.60 area which is a key support area. A break below 139.50 could see a return to the 137.00 area, thus delaying a potential move towards 142.50 which is the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the recent highs at 151.95 and lows at 127.20.   FTSE100 is expected to open 22 points lower at 7,500   DAX is expected to open 64 points lower at 15,845   CAC40 is expected to open 34 points lower at 7,175
Analysing the Potential for Radical Moves in EUR/GBP Price and Factors Influencing Fluctuations

Analysing the Potential for Radical Moves in EUR/GBP Price and Factors Influencing Fluctuations

Davide Acampora Davide Acampora 31.05.2023 10:40
FXMAG.COM: Do you expect any radical moves of EUR/GBP price in the near future? What can cause such fluctuations?  As forex traders keenly observe the EUR/GBP currency pair, there is speculation surrounding the likelihood of substantial price movements in the near future. Examining the underlying factors that can trigger notable fluctuations is essential for making informed decisions in the market.   Macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth, inflation rates, and employment figures, offer valuable insights into the potential for significant moves in the EUR/GBP price.   Based on the latest available data for Q1 of 2023, Eurozone GDP growth experienced a 1.3% increase, while the UK maintained a stable growth rate of 0.10%. Political developments exert a considerable impact on the EUR/GBP exchange rate. Notably, events such as the recent UK election or updates related to Brexit have proven to be catalysts for volatility.   Staying well-informed about key political developments is crucial, as they can significantly influence the price of this currency pair. Central bank policies play a pivotal role in shaping the EUR/GBP exchange rate.   The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) periodically announce monetary policy decisions that affect this currency pair. It is important to keep a close watch on interest rate adjustments, quantitative easing programs, and forward guidance statements.   As of the latest interest rate decision on February 2, 2023, the ECB maintained rates at 3%, while the BoE held rates at 4.5% with a slight increase of 0.25% on May 11, 2023. Global economic trends and market sentiment can also influence the EUR/GBP price.   Trade relations between the Eurozone and the UK, as well as global economic conditions, can cause significant fluctuations. Monitoring geopolitical events, risk appetite indicators, and market sentiment can provide valuable insights into potential radical moves in this currency pair.   Predicting significant shifts in the EUR/GBP price is a complex task. However, analysing key factors such as macroeconomic indicators, political developments, central bank policies, and global economic trends can enhance your understanding of potential fluctuations. As of the latest available data on May 23, 2023, at 12:51, the EUR/GBP exchange rate stands at 0.87057. Stay well-informed about the latest news and events to navigate the market effectively and make informed trading decisions.
Bank of Canada Faces Hawkish Dilemma: To Hold or to Hike Interest Rates?

Bank of Canada Faces Hawkish Dilemma: To Hold or to Hike Interest Rates?

ING Economics ING Economics 05.06.2023 10:27
A hawkish hold from the Bank of Canada next week We expect the BoC to leave the policy rate at 4.5% next week, but after stronger-than-expected consumer price inflation and GDP and with the labour data remaining robust we cannot rule out a surprise interest rate increase. The market is pricing a 25% chance of a hike on 7 June, and a hawkish hold should be anough to keep the Canadian dollar supported.   Canadian resilience means a rate hike can't be ruled out The Bank of Canada last raised rates on 25 January and have held it at 4.5% ever since. The statement from the last meeting in April commented that global growth had been stronger than expected and that in Canada itself, “demand is still exceeding supply and the labour market remains tight”. The bank warned that it was continuing to “assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive and remain prepared to raise the policy rate further” to ensure inflation returns to 2%.   Since then we have had additional warnings from Governor Tiff Macklem that the bank remains concerned about upside inflation risks with the latest CPI report showing a month-on-month increase in prices of 0.7% versus a consensus forecast of 0.4%, resulting in the annual rate of inflation rising to 4.4%. The economy added another 41,400 jobs in April, more than double the 20,000 expected with wages rising and unemployment remaining at just 5%. The resilience of the economy was then emphasised further by first quarter GDP growth coming in at 3.1% annualised, beating the 2.5% consensus growth forecast. Consumer spending was the main growth engine, rising 3.1%.     But we favour a hawkish hold – signalling action unless inflation softens again soon Nonetheless, the BoC accept that monetary policy operates with long and varied lags and continue to believe that “as more households renew their mortgages at higher rates and restrictive monetary policy works its way through the economy more broadly, consumption is expected to moderate this year”. This will help to dampen inflation pressures and with commodity price softening we still believe that inflation can get close to the 2% target by the early part of 2024.   With the US economic outlook also looking a little uncertain, we doubt that the BoC will want to restart hiking interest rates unless it is certain that inflation pressures will not moderate as it has long been forecasting. Consequently we favour a hawkish hold, signalling that if there isn’t clearer evidence of softening in price pressures it could raise rates again in July.     The loonie's resilience can continue The Canadian dollar has been the best G10 performing currency in the past month, largely thanks to its high beta to the US economic narrative and a repricing of Canada’s domestic rate and growth story. These factors have outshadowed crude’s subdued performance in May and some risk sentiment instability.   A hawkish tone by the Bank of Canada at the June meeting is clearly an important element to keep the bullish narrative for CAD alive. As shown below, the recent repricing in Fed rate expectations caused a rebound in short-term USD swap rates relative to most currencies (like the euro), while the USD-CAD 2-year swap rate differential has remained on a declining path also throughout the second half of May.     As long as the BoC does not push back against the pricing for a hike in the summer, we expect CAD to remain supported. Some lingering USD strength in June can put a floor around 1.33/1.34 in USD/CAD, but we expect a decisive move to 1.30 in the third quarter and below then level before the end of the year.  
Bank of England's Rate Dilemma: A September Hike and the Uncertain Path Ahead

Navigating the Tough Ceiling: Euro Rates Struggle to Break Recent Range. Primary Market Activity Thrives During Lull as Bond Yields Rise

ING Economics ING Economics 07.06.2023 08:57
The recent range is a tough ceiling to break for euro rates Even if ECB hawks continue to talk up the odds of July and September hikes, with the former still flagged as a more than even probability even by centrist members, it will take a pick-up in activity data for markets to price a terminal rate above 4%, as they did before the Silicon Valley Bank failure in March.   We’re not expecting a huge change in communication in short, and markets will focus on changes in economic data instead to infer how many more hikes the ECB has under its belt. In that context, we think longer-dated rates struggle to break above the top of their recent range, which roughly sits at 2.54% for 10Y Bund and 3.16% for 10Y swaps against 6m Euribor.   In light of the current lack of direction in financial markets, these levels may seem difficult to achieve, but the pre-ECB and Federal Reserve meeting lull is proving a fruitful time for primary market activity. On the sovereign side, Spain and France announced deals yesterday which we think will add to other deals in pushing yields up today.   Taking a step back, May has seen issuance volumes above historical averages every single week as opportunistic borrowers used this window of calm to push deals. We don't think this week will be any different. This shouldn’t be mistaken for a conviction macro trade, but we think the benign market conditions should continue to result in higher bond yields and weaker safe havens as investors feel more comfortable with owning riskier alternatives.       Big debate on direction from the US. We look for upward pressure on yields for now In the US, there is a stark juxtaposition between strong ongoing payroll growth versus PMIs and ISMs entering recessionary territory (low 40s for some components of the manufacturing PMI). On the inflation front, there is evidence of more subdued pipeline pressure while core inflation remains elevated (in the area of 5%).   Our model for US "rates" pitches fair value at 6% when we take everything into account. That has drifted up from 5.75% in the past week or so. Relative to this, the funds rate (ceilling at 5.25%) is not too deviant from that. But longer tenor rates are quite low relative to the big figure of 6%, reflecting ongoing deep inversion of the curve.   While there are some good reasons to expect market rates to fall (weak PMIs for example), our preferred expectation from here is to see some further upward pressure on market rates first. The 4% area for the 10yr Treasury yield for example remains a generic target that could well be hit in the coming month or so.     Today's events and market view Today’s session should be relatively light on economic releases with only US trade standing out. Instead, we expect the focus to be on the Bank of Canada’s meeting in the afternoon. Consensus is for no change in policy rates but the surprise Reserve Bank of Australia hike yesterday, as well as a greater skew towards a hike in the most recent contributions to the Bloomberg survey, means markets are on high alert. Bond supply will be concentrated in the 3Y sector with sales from the UK and Germany (a green bond in the latter’s case). Spain and France mandated banks for the sale of 10Y and 15Y linker bonds via syndication. ECB speakers on the last day before the pre-meeting quiet period will be VP Luis de Guindos, Klass Knot, Fabio Panetta, and Boris Vujcic.
Unleashing the Potential: The Czech Koruna's Strong Stand and Market Expectations

Unleashing the Potential: The Czech Koruna's Strong Stand and Market Expectations

ING Economics ING Economics 14.06.2023 14:46
The Czech koruna reached essentially its strongest levels against the euro in history in 2Q and remains below EUR 24/CZK. However, the attractiveness of the koruna declined in May as the CNB hawkish story came to an end and attention shifted elsewhere in the region. We think the koruna still has a lot to offer - high carry, balanced market positioning and a central bank ready to intervene in the FX market if the koruna weakens. In addition, the CZK has by far the highest beta against EUR/USD in the region, making it a good proxy for a global story view with a high CEE carry element.   Financial markets are currently pricing in too much rate cutting this year. Thus, any central bank hints of rate cuts, which is not a topic for the CNB at the moment, or lower inflation numbers should not threaten the crown, unlike other currencies within the region. Moreover, in our base case scenario, we expect EUR/USD to rebound in the coming months, which should benefit the koruna the most in the region. This is also helped in many ways by a more balanced market positioning versus PLN or HUF, for example. Thus, we expect the koruna to stay in the current range of 23.50-24.00 EUR/CZK with trips to lower levels depending on the global story.   FX – spot vs forward and INGF   CNB FX reserves declined but remain significant (€bn)   Fixed Income strategy The financial markets are pricing in a first 25bp rate cut in September and 95bp overall this year, while we see room for only one or at most two 25bp rate cuts this year. Thus, we think the market has gone too far and the CNB meeting should be a reminder of CNB hawkishness despite lower inflation numbers, which are not sufficiently low for the central bank yet. Overall, we see the market calling for an upward correction in rates.   Foreign holders of CZGB (%)   CZGBs issuance (CZKbn)    
Why the Bank of England is Cautious about Endorsing a 6% Bank Rate: Assessing the Impact on Homeowners and the Mortgage Market

Analyzing the Fed's Decision. Gold Market in Turmoil!

Marco Turatti Marco Turatti 15.06.2023 13:29
In the wake of the recent Federal Reserve (Fed) decision and its implications for the financial markets, we reached out to experts, analysts, and economists from HF markets to gain their insights on the current situation. Our focus revolves around two key areas: the Fed's decision and its impact on the gold market. With these topics in mind, we explore the potential outlook for gold prices in the coming weeks and discuss the market's response to the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) decision.   Gold Market Analysis When considering the trajectory of gold prices in the near future, experts express skepticism regarding the likelihood of reaching a new all-time high for XAU. While certain central banks, including Turkey, China, and India (which added 2 tonnes to its reserves in May), have increased their gold purchases to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar, investors, speculators, and hedge funds focus on other factors. Notably, gold is currently trading at a premium compared to its valuation against the US 10-year real interest rate. Recent price movements indicate a potential further decline, with a possible target range of $1860 or even lower to $1785. FXMAG.COM: Could you give as your point of view about how the gold prices would behave in next weeks? Is there a chance that there will be new ATH? Marco Turatti – HFM Market Analyst: It seems unlikely that we will see a new all-time high for XAU soon. Its price has so far been supported by increased purchases by certain central banks, such as Turkey, China and others (India added 2 tonnes to its reserves in May). The aim is to differentiate its reserves from the USD.  But investors, speculators and hedge funds look at other fundamentals and gold is very expensive compared to where it should trade against, for example, the US 10-year real interest rate. Just today it broke $1940, and could continue to the $1860 zone, if not lower to $1785.    Fed's Decision and Market Reaction Regarding the FOMC decision, experts highlight the surprise factor. Many anticipated that the Fed would approach the peak and initiate rate cuts in the coming months. However, the Fed's stance indicates that the official rate could reach 5.75% in 2023, with Chairman Jerome Powell stating that no cuts are expected for approximately two years. This stands in contrast to the Dot Plot projections. The Fed also expressed optimism regarding the new growth and job outlook.     FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the FOMC decision? Marco Turatti – HFM Market Analyst: The Fed really surprised: a lot of people thought we were close to the peak and ready to cut rates this year, but this is not the case. The official rate will probably reach 5.75% in 2023 and Jerome Powell says there will be no cuts for about 2 years (which is different from what the Dot Plot says).  They were also quite optimistic about the new growth/jobs outlook. The market didn't really go anywhere: yes, there was a lot of up and down movement in both indices and the USD, but at the end the day it ended with the US500 flat and the USDIndex having recovered 103.  Now there will be time in the coming hours to better process the central bank's message. Today (15/06) we are seeing declines in the stock market futures and this makes sense for equities (also given the emphasis on labour market monitoring, the Fed wants it weaker).  One direct and clear reaction we are noticing, however, has obviously been the rise in rates along the whole curve, which is weighing on gold.
Navigating Headwinds: Outlook for the Finnish Economy

Navigating the FOMC Decision: Unraveling the Implications of Aggressive Interest Rate Hikes

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 16.06.2023 09:06
In the wake of 10 consecutive interest rate hikes, it is high time for the markets to embrace a more positive outlook. The Powell-led committee's aggressive pursuit of raising benchmark rates, although necessary, has cast a shadow of pessimism over financial markets, potentially overshadowing the remarkable achievements of industry pioneers. Throughout history, monetary policy has proven to be a valuable tool for achieving financial stabilization in economies. The United States has faced its fair share of hardships in recent times, including a prevailing sense of distrust toward local banks and the adverse ripple effects of the debt ceiling conundrum. These challenges have been further exacerbated by soaring nationwide inflation, which has also left its mark on the cryptocurrency market.   It has been 15 months since the Federal Reserve decided to pause the rate hikes, indicating a momentary respite for the nation's monetary defenses. During this time, cryptocurrencies have displayed a bullish trend when examined from a long-term perspective. While current market conditions may appear to be in the red, they could potentially serve as necessary corrections following the rapid price surges witnessed in the crypto asset space. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is operating as intended, with continuous and comprehensive assessments of economic conditions. Crucially, these assessments should consider the implications not only for industry leaders but also for everyday households. Adopting a bottom-up approach may yield insightful findings regarding the broader impact of monetary policy decisions.   FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the FOMC decision? It’s about time for markets to see the brighter side of day after 10 straight interest rate hikes. The Powell-led committee has been on a frenzy of aggressive benchmark rate increases – while necessary – has infected financial markets with pessimism, and that can overshadow the successes and feats of industry pioneers. Monetary policy has historically served as a very useful tool for achieving economy financial stabilization, and the United States economy has been susceptible to quite the hardship in recent times. The distrustful sentiment towards local banks and the adverse ripple effect of the debt ceiling conundrum had been exacerbated with scorching nation-wide inflation. That has also had its impact on the crypto market. It has been 15 months since the Fed decided to pause the rate hikes, which perhaps is an indication that the nation’s monetary defenses are taking a breather. Since the start of the year, cryptocurrencies have been very bullish when putting on the long-term lenses. While contemporary market conditions are more in the red, they potentially serve as corrections to the recent sharp price bumps in crypto assets. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is doing as it should, given continuous extensive assessment of economic conditions. What’s pivotal here is the conditions to be assessed, which in my perspective should take into consideration the implications on industry leaders but also those on everyday households; a bottom-up approach may present quite the insightful findings.  
China's August Yuan Loans Soar," Dollar Weakens Against Yen and Yuan, AUD/JPY Consolidates at 94.00 Level

Insights from Analysts: Fed and ECB Decisions Impact Financial Markets, Gold Faces Uncertainty

Andrey Goilov Andrey Goilov 16.06.2023 09:18
The current situation in the financial markets has been a topic of great interest and speculation. To shed light on this matter, we had the opportunity to speak with an analyst from RoboForex, who provided valuable insights. Starting with the FOMC decision, the US Federal Reserve opted to maintain the interest rate at 5.25% per annum, aligning with expectations. However, the regulator's comments presented a mixed outlook. While it acknowledged the possibility of further interest rate hikes, it is anticipated that any future increases will be more modest, with a shift from 50 basis points to 25 basis points.   The Federal Reserve also indicated its intention to continue reducing the volume of assets on its balance sheet, with potential sales of securities starting in 2024. Despite the neutral nature of the recent statements and decisions, there are concerns about the negative impact on the US capital market due to potential future lending cost increases. The risks of a recession are expected to persist until the end of 2023.   Moving on to the ECB decision, the European Central Bank raised all three interest rates at its recent meeting. The deposit rate increased by 25 basis points to 3.25% per annum, while the key rate and marginal rate were lifted to 4.00% and 4.25% per annum, respectively. The ECB made it clear that its interest rate hike campaign is not yet over, as it aims to bring rates to sufficiently restrictive levels for inflation to reach the target of 2% in the medium term. It is anticipated that there will be at least two more rate hikes of 25 basis points each, followed by a possible pause for data analysis.     FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the FOMC decision? The decision of the US Federal Reserve turned out to be as expected. The interest rate was kept at the level of 5.25% per annum. The regulator's comments came out mixed.For example, the Fed believes it is reasonable to consider further interest rate hikes. This means that the pause will probably not last long. There may be one or two rate hikes ahead. The nuance is that the rate increase will be more modest, at 25 basis points and not at 50 bp as before.The Fed will continue to reduce the volume of assets on its balance sheet as announced earlier. Since May this year, the indicator has fallen to 8.4 trillion USD from 8.5 trillion USD. The Committee refuses to reinvest funds generated from matured securities. Sales of securities from the Fed's balance sheet might start in 2024.Locally, all statements and decisions are of a neutral nature. In the medium term, this can have a negative impact on the US capital market due to the possibility of a further increase in the cost of lending. The risks of a recession persist until the end of 2023.   FXMAG.COM: Could you please comment on the ECB decision? The European Central Bank raised all three interest rates at its meeting on Thursday. The deposit rate rose by 25 basis points to 3.25% per annum. The key rate increased to 4.00% per annum, and the marginal rate was lifted to 4.25% per annum.The ECB made it clear in its comments that its unprecedented interest hike campaign is not over yet.As stated by the CB, rates must be brought to levels that will be sufficiently restrictive for a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target. Rates will be kept high for as long as necessary.Everything happened exactly as expected. The ECB will likely further raise the rates at least twice by the same interval of 25 basis points each time. Thereafter, a pause will probably be needed to collect data and analyse it. This will not necessarily indicate that the series of hikes has come to an end, but that the ECB has received signals that its monetary strategy is working.   FXMAG.COM: Could you give as your point of view about how the gold prices would behave in next weeks? Is there a chance that there will be new ATH? Gold is currently not in demand as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, physical demand for the precious metal is low, which does not provide any support for gold.Gold has declined to 1,946 USD per troy ounce. This year's high was recorded on 3 May, when gold was priced at 2,071.30 USD.There are a lot of risks for gold associated with the prospects of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. While investors were expecting a pause in the series of interest rate hikes by the Fed, they now received indications of a probable further tightening of monetary policy. If gold can cope with this statement, it could trigger price increases.The crux of the matter is that the Fed is on the verge of altering its monetary policy stance. Everyone understands that. The question remains about the timing of when the regulator will begin lowering rates. While there is a lot of uncertainty here, there is almost no doubt that this could happen in the next 6-8 months.A shift in the Fed's monetary framework will be a vital support for gold from a long-term perspective. In the medium term, a sideways trend has formed within the range of 1,935-1,985 USD, while a decline is the most likely scenario in the short term.     Visit RoboForex
Unlocking the Future: Reforms in Korea's FX Market Amid Demographic Shifts

Amidst Rising Inflation Concerns And Gold Consolidates Amid Hawkish Central Bank Actions

Matt Weller CFA Matt Weller CFA 16.06.2023 08:50
In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, decisions made by major central banks have a significant impact on shaping trends. We recently had the opportunity to speak with Matthew Weller, an analyst at StoneX, to gain insights into the current state of affairs.   Read more   The European Central Bank (ECB) recently made headlines with its "Hawkish Hike," raising its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%. This move aims to combat the escalating inflation in the eurozone, marking the eighth consecutive rate hike since July 2022. The ECB's determination to bring inflation down from its current 6.1% to its target of 2% is evident. ECB President Christine Lagarde has hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes at the next meeting in July, emphasizing the need to tackle inflation head-on. Lagarde made it clear that the ECB has no plans to pause its rate hikes. While the ECB focuses on inflation control, other central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, have taken a pause in their rate hikes to assess their impact on economic growth and employment. However, the Fed's projections indicate the potential for two more rate hikes this year. Similarly, central banks in Australia and Canada have resumed rate increases after a temporary pause, underscoring the global challenge of high inflation. The ECB's decision to raise rates comes at a time of economic uncertainty, influenced by factors such as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and potential wage agreements that may further fuel inflationary pressures. The ECB acknowledges that short-term economic growth may remain subdued, but it expects improvements as inflation subsides and supply disruptions ease. While concerns persist regarding the potential negative impact of higher rates on the economy and the risk of a recession, the ECB remains committed to addressing inflation as a top priority   FXMAG.COM: Could you give as your point of view about how the gold prices would behave in next weeks? Is there a chance that there will be new ATH? Gold Consolidates Amid Hawkish Central Bank Actions   With major central banks continuing to tighten monetary policy and inflation still receding (if more gradually than before) gold prices are likely to remain on the back foot in the near term. As of writing, the yellow metal is trading in the mid-$1900s, where it has spent the last three weeks consolidating. Bulls will be looking for a break above the June high near $1990 to signal a potential retest of the record highs near $2075 as we move into July, whereas a confirmed break below $1930 could open the door for a retest of the 200-day EMA near $1900 next.
Beyonce Bounce and Soaring UK Inflation: A Challenge for Bank of England

Beyonce Bounce and Soaring UK Inflation: A Challenge for Bank of England

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 21.06.2023 13:33
Beyonce bounce keeps a floor under UK CPI Just when you think it can't get any worse, and we thought that UK inflation was on a downward track, UK core CPI goes and jumps to a new 30 year of 7.1%, while headline inflation remained steady at 8.7%. Today's numbers are a further headache for the beleaguered Bank of England monetary policy committee and yet another stick to beat them with.    For a central bank, whose inflation target is 2% and who for so long were insistent that inflation was transitory there is a real risk that anything the central bank does tomorrow will be ignored by financial markets. There is no doubt these numbers are bad news for households as well as the mortgage market, which is already showing signs of strain.   Today's ONS numbers did point to a rather large jump recreation and culture and specifically fees to live music events.   Last week Sweden blamed the "Beyonce" effect for a surprise rise in their own headline inflation rates, and the same thing appears to have happened here in the UK with tickets going on sale for live performances to see Taylor Swift and Beyonce, during the month of May.   Restaurants and hotels also saw a lift during May, and this could have been down to the Coronation and the two bank holidays which provided a lift to that sector.     Food price inflation slowed to 18.3%, however we already know from the latest Kantar survey that in June this slowed to 16.5%, however the process remains glacial, but should continue to slow. The biggest concern is the continued increase in core prices with services inflation remaining sticky, rising to 6.3% from 6% in April.   A lot of this increase in services price inflation will be down to the paying of higher wages to staff, but we can also blame the energy price cap, which has meant that consumers haven't seen sharp falls in the cost of their energy costs straightaway, forcing them to push for higher wages.   This is probably why UK inflation is stickier than its continental peers.   Natural gas prices are already back at levels 2 years ago, yet consumers haven't seen that in their energy bills yet, even as fuel pump prices have. The energy price cap will see a fall in July, and some energy providers are cutting the direct debt payments of their customers already, but it's all so slow.   Amidst all this gloom there is room for optimism if you look at the trends in PPI which tends to be an indicator of where we are heading.   In May input and output prices came in negative month on month to the tune of -1.5% and -0.5%, while China and Germany are also showing increased signs of deflation, which should bring inflation down in the second half of this year. These have been weak all year, however markets aren't looking at these yet, and perhaps they should be because it's likely we'll see inflation come in much lower.    UK gilt yields have jumped sharply on the back of these numbers, with 2-year yields back above 5% and their highest levels since 2008.   Today's numbers have also increased the prospect that we might get a 50bps rate hike, instead of 25bps from the Bank of England tomorrow, pushing bank rate to 5%, to try and get out in front of the narrative, and convince then markets of their determination to hit their 2% target.   Sadly, for the Bank of England that ship has sailed, as very few believe anything they have to say anymore, with financial markets pricing in the prospect of a 6% base rate by the end of this year. As for tomorrow's Bank of England rate decision we could well see the bank raise rates by 50bps instead of the 25bps which is expected.  If we do get 50bps it's quite possible, we may not need a rate hike in August, if the inflation data does start to show signs of easing.   In conclusion, while today's numbers are worrying it's also important not to implement a knee jerk response, when we know part of the reason inflation is sticky is due to the energy price cap. This will come down in July, and in all honesty should be consigned to the dustbin, as its not reactive enough when prices fall.     By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
Navigating Financial Markets: Insights on Central Bank Decisions and Currency Quotes

Navigating Financial Markets: Insights on Central Bank Decisions and Currency Quotes

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 21.06.2023 14:00
In the dynamic world of financial markets, the interplay between macroeconomic data and central bank decisions can significantly impact various asset classes. We had the opportunity to speak with an FXPrimus expert to gain valuable insights into the current market situation and the influence of these factors on currency quotes, particularly the Turkish lira (TRY) and the British pound (GBP), as well as the broader effects on the US and European stock markets. FXMAG.COM: How will Thursday's (22.06) Turkish central bank's decision on interest rates affect TRY quotes? FXPrimus expert: The past rate cuts by Turkish President Erdogan led to a dramatic decline in the price of the Turkish lira, inflation hit 85.5% last year and as a result the overall cost of living of the country had dramatically increased . In a big U-turn, the central bank of Turkey is expected to increase interest rates to 20% to target the negative impacts of a rising inflation and attract investors to its currency.   FXMAG.COM: How will Thursday's (22.06) Bank of England interest rate decision affect GBP quotes? FXPrimus expert: The Market is already pricing in an interest rate hike from the Bank of England and given that CPI data on the 21st of June was higher than expected and at 8.7%, the BoE has no other choice but to act. More interest rate hikes will be expected after this one to target inflation but this will have negative effect on other aspects of the economy i.e. Bank crisis   FXMAG.COM: In the mid-term, how will last week's Fed and ECB decisions affect the US and European stock markets? FXPrimus expert: As interest rates increase, stock investors become unwilling to trade stock prices as the value for future earnings becomes less attractive against bonds which have a higher yield today, the FED have paused interest rate hikes but it remains to be seen in the upcoming economic data releases whether they will change course. The ECB has slowed the pace at which the interest rates where increased however they have indicated that more hikes are yet to come.
The cost of green steel production compared to conventional steel

Market Reaction and Potential Implications: Wagner Group's Rebellion, Inflation Reports, and Central Bank Policies

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 26.06.2023 08:06
Slow start following an eventful weekend.    The weekend was eventful with the unexpected rebellion of the Wagner Group against the Kremlin. Yevgeny Prigozhin's men, who fight for Putin in the deadliest battles in Ukraine walked towards Moscow this weekend as Prigozhin accused the Kremlin of not providing enough arms to his troops. But suddenly, Prigozhin called off the attack following an agreement brokered by Belarus and agreed to go into exile. The Kremlin took back control of the situation, but we haven't seen Vladimit Putin, or Prigozhin talk since then. The Wagner incident may have exposed Putin's weakness, and was the most serious threat to his rule in two decades. It could be a turning point in the war in Ukraine. But nothing is more unsure. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, there are no indications that Wagner fighters are retreating from the battlefield.  The first reaction of the financial markets to Wagner's mini coup was relatively calm. Gold for example, which is a good indication of market stress at this kind of moment, remained flat, and even sold into the $1930 level. The dollar-swissy moved little near the 90 cents level. Crude oil was offered into the $70pb level, as nat gas futures jumped more than 2% at the weekly open, and specific stocks like United Co. Rusal International, a Russian aluminum producer that trades in Hong Kong, gapped lower at the open but recovered losses.  Equities in Asia were mostly under pressure from last week's selloff in the US, while US futures ticked higher and are slightly positive at the time of writing.    The Wagner incident will likely remain broadly ignored by investors, unless there are fresh developments that could change the course of the war in Ukraine. Until then, markets will be back to business as usual. There is nothing much on today's economic calendar, but the rest of the week will be busy with a series of inflation reports from Canada, Australia, Europe, the US, and Japan.     Except for Japan, where the Bank of Japan (BoJ) doesn't seem urged to hike the rates, higher-than-expected inflation figures could further fuel the hawkish central bank expectations and add to the weakening appetite in risk assets.     The Federal Reserve (Fed) will carry its annual bank stress test this week, to see how many more rate hikes the baking sector could take in and the potential for changes in capital requirements down the road. The big banks are likely not very vulnerable to higher capital requirements, yet the profitability of the US regional banks could be at jeopardy and that could cause investors to remain skeptical regarding the US banking stocks altogether. Invesco's KBW bank ETF slipped below its 50-DMA, following recovery in May on the back of decidedly aggressive Fed to continue hiking rates, and stricter requirements could further weigh on appetite.    Zooming out, the S&P500 is down by more than 2% since this month's peak, Nasdaq 100 lost more than 3% while Europe's Stoxx 600 dipped 3.70% between mid-June and now on the back of growing signs that the aggressive central bank rate hikes are finally slowing economic activity around the world. A series of PMI data released last Friday showed that activity in euro area's biggest economies fell to a 5-month low as manufacturing contracted faster and services grew slower than expected. The EURUSD tipped a toe below its 50-DMA last Friday but found buyers below this level. Weak data weakens the European Central Bank (ECB) expectations, but that could easily reverse with a strong inflation read given that the ECB is ready to induce more pain on the Eurozone economy to fight inflation.     Across the Channel, the picture isn't necessarily better. Both services and manufacturing came in softer than expected. And despite the positive surprise on the retail sales front, retail sales in Britain slumped more than 2% in May, due to the rising cost of living that led the Brits back from loosening their purse string. One thing though. UK's largest lenders agreed to give borrowers a 12-month grace period if they missed their mortgage payments as a result of whopping costs of keeping their mortgages due to the aggressively rising interest rates. Unless an accident – in real estate for example, the Bank of England (BoE) will continue hiking the rates and reach a peak rate of 6.25% by December.   The only way to slow down the pace of hikes is to find a solution to the sticky inflation problem. And because the BoE has limited influence on prices, Jeremy Hunt will meet industry regulatory this week to discuss how they could prevent companies from taking advantage of inflation and raising prices more than needed, which adds to inflationary pressures through what we call 'greeflation'. But until he finds a solution, the BoE has no choice but to keep hiking and the UK's 2-year gilt yield has further to run higher, whereas the widening gap between the 2 and 10-year yield hints at growing odds of recession in the UK, which should also prevent the pound from gaining strength on the back of hawkish BoE. Cable will more likely end up going back to 1.25, than extending gains to 1.30.       By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  
Analyzing the Euro's Forecast Amidst Eurozone Data and Global Factors

Analyzing the Euro's Forecast Amidst Eurozone Data and Global Factors

Santa Zvaigzne Sproge Santa Zvaigzne Sproge 07.07.2023 10:15
As the Eurozone grapples with the latest economic data, investors and market participants are keen to understand the forecast for the Euro (EUR). We engage in a conversation with Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, to gain insights into the potential implications of recent developments on the Euro's performance. The manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the Euro area has shown signs of decline, introducing downward pressure on the common currency. This suggests a potential deterioration in economic health and raises concerns about the onset of a recession. These factors may impact the valuation of the Euro against other major currencies.     FXMAG.COM: In light of the latest data from the Eurozone, what forecast can you make for the EUR?   Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA: Lowering manufacturing and services PMI in the Euro area might contribute to downward pressure on the common currency as they indicate a potential deterioration of economic health and a potential recession.   However, the Euro value may be more dependent on the ECB's decisions on further interest rate hikes and the value of the US Dollar. During recent uncertainties in the financial markets, the US Dollar has been slightly regaining strength due to its “safe haven” asset features.   Furthermore, the FED is expected to raise key interest rates in their July meeting potentially giving additional strength to the US Dollar. Meanwhile, continued deterioration of macroeconomic data in the Euro area may push the ECB to halt raising interest rates resulting in a weakening Euro.   
Senior Fed Officials Signal Rate Hike Pause as Key Economic Indicators Awaited

US Inflation Falls Faster than Expected, Fed Hike Still Likely

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 13.07.2023 11:30
US inflation falls faster than expected; CPI 3% (YoY), Core CPI 4.8% (YoY) July Fed hike still highly likely despite inflation drop Nasdaq hits 18-month high after the data   Financial markets are buzzing at the US open on Wednesday, with investors buoyed by a very promising inflation report from the US. The report not only beat at the headline level but core actually slipped even further, dropping to 4.8% for the first time since October 2021. The monthly data was also extremely encouraging, with headline and core falling to 0.2% which was lower than the consensus forecast in both cases. It really is just what the doctor ordered. Of course, there’s been plenty of setbacks over the last couple of years so we don’t want to get too carried away with one inflation report but it really is about as good as we could have realistically hoped for. That said, it’s unlikely to change the outcome of the debate that takes place in two weeks. The Fed is still extremely likely to hike by 25 basis points, rightly or wrongly, as the labor market data on Friday simply wasn’t good enough. In fact, the wages component was quite the opposite and will likely convince the FOMC that one more hike is warranted, which is what markets are still heavily pricing in.   Fed Interest Rate Probability     But that may well now be the last and if we can see any further signs of progress over the summer then that will likely end the debate altogether, shifting the conversation from how many more hikes to the timing of the first cut.            
Assessing the Future of Aluminium: Key Areas to Watch

The Weaker US Dollar and Potential Upside in Commodities Spark Inflationary Expectations

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 17.07.2023 09:33
Current up moves in long-duration equities and fixed income came at the expense of a weaker US dollar. A persistent weak US dollar may lead to an upside revival in commodities prices. Inflationary expectations may creep up again due to higher oil/commodities prices. Disinflationary narrative seems premature and may be mispriced.   Market participants have taken a “disinflation ecstasy pill”, bidding up long-duration equities and fixed income in the past two sessions after the latest June US CPI data came in below expectations with the headline print dipped to 3% year-on-year, its slowest rate of growth seen in two years. The core consumer inflation rate (excluding food & energy) also slowed to 4.8% year-on-year from 5.3% recorded in May and dipped below the current Fed Funds rate of 5% to 5.25%. In terms of week-to-date performances as of 13 July, higher beta and long-duration equities outperformed, and the Nasdaq 100 rallied by +3.56%, just 7.7% away from its November 2022 all-time high. Over in the fixed income space, last week’s losses were almost recouped; iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded a week-to-date gain of 2.84%, iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (+2.61%), and iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (+2.44%). This latest bout of “disinflationary optimism” has revived the “Fed Pivot” narrative where participants are now anticipating that the upcoming July FOMC meeting will likely see the last interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) to end this current cycle of monetary policy tightening in the US and negate the current “higher interest rates for a longer period” guidance advocated by Fed officials.     US Dollar Index’s major downtrend was reinforced via a break below 100.95 key support   Fig 1:  US Dollar Index medium-term and major trend as of 14 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The current disinflationary theme play has come at the expense of a weaker US dollar that sank to a 15-month low, the US Dollar Index has tumbled by -2.52% for this week, set for its worst weekly performance since the week of 7 November 2022 as it broke below the key medium-term support of 100.95. Right now, there are second-order effects at play where significant global financial market movements are likely to spiral into the real economy in the months ahead. A weaker US dollar may translate to higher commodities prices as most commodities; physical and paper (futures contracts) are priced in US dollars. This above-mentioned linkage of a weaker US dollar to higher commodities prices seems to be emerging in the financial markets; the week-to-date performance of WTI crude oil futures is up by +4.1% and a broader basket of commodities as measured by the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund has rallied by 3.6% for this week.   Inflationary expectations may start to creep up   Fig 2:  WTI crude oil correlation with US 5-YR & 10-YR breakeven inflation rates as of 13 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Commodity prices such as oil have a high degree of direct correlation with forward-looking inflationary expectations. In the past three years, the price actions of WTI crude oil have moved in lock-step with the US Treasury’s 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates (a measurement of inflationary expectations). If WTI crude oil can maintain its current upward trajectory, inflationary expectations may creep higher from this juncture.   Potential upside momentum in commodities may spark another ascend in US CPI   Fig 3: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund major trend with US CPI as of 13 Jul 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In addition, from a momentum perspective, an imminent trend change may start to take shape for commodities prices after close to one year of downtrend since June 2022 using Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) as a commodities benchmark. The current weekly MACD trend indicator of the DBC has just flashed a bullish crossover signal below its centreline that suggested that the major downtrend of DBC in place since the June 2022 high may have ended which in turn increases the odds of a bullish reversal for commodities prices. A similar MACD bullish crossover observation on the DBC occurred in early June 2020 that spiralled into the real economy where inflationary pressures; headline and core US CPI started their ascend. Therefore, a potential uptick in inflationary expectations coupled with the current positive momentum in commodities prices may put a halt to the current inflationary slowdown trajectory seen in the latest US CPI prints. The ongoing disinflationary narrative may be premature and mispriced at this juncture.      
Equity Markets Rise, VIX at 12 Handle After ECB Rate Hike and US Economic Resilience

Bank of Japan Surprises with Yield Curve Control Tweak and Inflation Uptick

ING Economics ING Economics 28.07.2023 10:45
Bank of Japan surprises the market with yield curve control tweak Today we have seen two major surprises from Japan. First, the Bank of Japan has made a tweak to its yield curve control policy. Second, Tokyo inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.2% in July.   The BoJ surprised the market with YCC adjustment Stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure has finally moved the BoJ to tweak its YCC policy, and financial markets seem busy digesting the news. We argued that the BoJ could shorten its target yield from the 10Y to 5Y tenor at this meeting, but the BoJ decided to keep the official cap of the 10Y JGB at 0.5%, while allowing more flexibility with the new, so-called strict cap, and raise the trading band to +/- 1.0%. What a confusing statement! They could have simply changed the upper limit of the 10Y JGB from 0.5% to 1.0%.     Conducting YCC with greater flexibilty   Honne vs Tatemae Our interpretation is this. We believe that the BoJ was forced to alter its YCC policy in light of higher-than-expected inflation and market pressures but at the same time, the BoJ also needs to manage market expectations for future monetary policy changes and avoid a sudden hike in market rates. So, by keeping the 10Y limit at 0.5%, the BoJ seems to want to be considered as dovish as possible. The BoJ would also probably like to see how the market reacts to the change and how far the 10Y JGB can go. The market really can test 1.0% or settle somewhere between 0.5%/1.0%. Today’s decision can also help anchor 20Y and 30Y so that they don't float too much. The BoJ is concerned that rising market rates could hurt the investment recovery and overall growth.   Inflation outlook revised up only for FY2023 The BoJ released its latest quarterly macro-outlook report and upgraded its overall assessment of the economy. More meaningfully, the BoJ revised up its core inflation outlook for FY 2023 from 2.5 to 3.2% but kept the outlook for FY 2024 and FY 2025 at 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. Again, it is also a sign that the BoJ appears to be buying time until it is confident of achieving its sustainable inflation target.   Actually, we have seen this kind of tactic in April when the BoJ removed its forward guidance from its statement. To prevent the market from getting too far ahead, the Bank of Japan simultaneously proposed a policy review that would take more than a year.    Net-net a small yen positive USD/JPY has seen a wild ride on today's BoJ communication. An initial 1% spike on the BoJ seemingly keeping the YCC unchanged - the 10-year JGB yield target is still 0% with a +/- 0.5% band - but then selling off 2% to 138.00 when the market realised that today's adjustments of 'greater flexibility and 'nimble' purchasing effectively raised the hard cap in the 10-year JGB yield to 1.00%. In terms of the JGB market, we have seen 10-year JGB yields rise - just 11bp - to 0.55% - with the 10-year tenor hit harder than the 30yr (+7bp) and 5-year (+4bp). For reference, the JGB forward market has not got overly excited. 10-year JGB yields are priced at 0.60% in three months, 0.64% in six months and are not priced above 1.00% until three years' time. We would have probably seen bigger market moves if the CPI forecasts had been raised substantially. As it is, the FY24 and FY25 forecasts remain below 2.00% and in effect justify ongoing easing from the Bank of Japan. This suggests today's YCC adjustment could have been more technical in nature. However, the market is now going to have to take on board the greater flexibility in the BoJ's policy-making - raising expectations of some follow-up move at the 31 October meeting when new CPI forecasts are released. We are bearish on USD/JPY in the second half - though largely on the back of the dollar story. Based on today's developments we see no reason to change our forecasts for 135 and 130 for the end of September and end of December, respectively.
Market Insights with Nour Hammoury: S&P 500 and Bitcoin Projections for H2 2023

Market Insights with Nour Hammoury: S&P 500 and Bitcoin Projections for H2 2023

Nour Hammoury Nour Hammoury 01.08.2023 14:26
In a recent interview with FXMAG.COM, we had the pleasure of discussing the current state of the financial markets with Nour Hammoury, an esteemed analyst from Squared Financial. As investors closely watch the performance of the S&P 500 index and speculate about the future of Bitcoin, we sought Hammoury's expert insights on these crucial market trends. When asked about the possibility of new record highs for the S&P 500 index, Hammoury pointed out that the index is merely about 5% away from reaching a record high. The earnings reports from companies have been promising, with 65% of them showing better-than-expected performance while upgrading their guidance. These factors have contributed to maintaining the bullish momentum in the market. However, the analyst warned that a correction could be on the horizon, especially after the recent rally. The key factor to watch for the next retracement is the index's ability to break above the 4600 level. Despite this caution, Hammoury also acknowledged that the possibility of the S&P 500 reaching a new record high before the end of the year cannot be ruled out. Switching gears to the ever-volatile realm of cryptocurrencies, Hammoury shared insights on Bitcoin's price projection for the second half of 2023. The analyst believes that the Bitcoin bear market has concluded since March of this year. While the cryptocurrency has experienced recent declines, Hammoury sees them as short-term retracements before the upward trend resumes. The time/price method suggests that Bitcoin may experience another leg higher by September, and any downside retracement is expected to be limited above the 25K mark. On the upside, Hammoury identifies 34K as a potential target in the coming weeks.   FXMAG.COM:  Are we facing new record highs for the S&P 500 index? S&P500 is only about 5% away from record high. So far 65% of the companies that reported earnings showed a better-than-expected performance while upgrading their guidance, which keeps the bullish momentum in place. However, a correction is highly possible from the current level, especially after the recent rally. A failure to break above 4600 remains the key for the next retracement lower. At the same time, we can't rule out a record high before the end of the year.   FXMAG.COM: How do you think the price of Bitcoin will fall in the second half of 2023? Bitcoin bear market has been over since March of this year. Despite the recent decline, this is considered another short-term retracement before the upside trend resumes. The time/price method suggests another leg higher by September, while any downside retracement is likely to remain limited above 25K. On the upside view, 34K could be the next possible target within the next few weeks.
Forecasting the Future of Bitcoin: Analyzing Critical Price Levels for the Second Half of 2023

CZK: Czech National Bank's Last Chance to Signal Hawkishness

ING Economics ING Economics 03.08.2023 10:20
CZK: The CNB's last chance to send a hawkish signal There is only one event on the calendar today in the CEE region and that is the meeting of the Czech National Bank. A rate change is not on the table this time either, in our view. However, we think it should be one of the most interesting sessions this year. Firstly, rapid disinflation opens up the question of a first rate cut; secondly, the weak koruna in turn raises the question of FX intervention and the postponement of rate cuts; and thirdly, the CNB will release a new forecast which may be the central bank's last attempt to reverse very dovish market expectations. The Czech koruna has erased some losses in recent days but it seems to have been more related to the rebalancing of bonds within the GBI-EM index than due to any CNB hawkishness. So yesterday the koruna closed slightly below 24.0 per euro, which we believe is the pain threshold for the central bank. We believe that the CNB will try to support FX somehow given that it has become the pillar of monetary policy over recent months. The market is not buying into CNB hawkishness very much and so today's unveiling of the new forecast is likely to be the last chance to fight the market's dovish expectations. Financial markets are pricing in roughly 115bps of rate cuts this year, while we see 50bps in total in two steps in November and December. We think the CNB will try to paint a similar picture, which should support the koruna closer to 23.80 EUR/CZK.
Australian GDP Holds Steady at 0.4% as RBA Maintains Rates at 4.10%

Bank of England's Bold Move: Implications for the British Economy and GBP

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 03.08.2023 10:54
In our conversation with Alex Kuptsikevich, an analyst from FXPro, we delve into the Bank of England's recent decision on interest rates and its implications for the British economy and the GBP. The central bank's move to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% is a significant step, marking the highest rate since 2008. This decision comes as Britain grapples with one of the highest inflation rates among developed nations, leaving little room for inaction. Unlike the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the Bank of England cannot afford to take a wait-and-see approach. The soaring inflation necessitates swift action, and indications suggest that the central bank may not stop raising interest rates until it reaches 5.75%, matching the peak of monetary tightening seen in 2007.   FXMAG: What is your assessment of the Bank of England's decision on interest rates? Should we still expect a hike in the Isles? And what's next for the GBP in the context of the BoE's decision? The Bank of England is expected to raise its key interest rate by 25 points to 5.25%, the highest since 2008. Britain's inflation rate, one of the highest in the developed world, makes it impossible to pause and look around - a privilege the Fed has used and the ECB may do in September. It is worth bracing for indications that the BoE will not stop raising interest rates before the end of the year, taking the rate to 5.75% - the peak of monetary tightening in 2007.   The Bank of England's hawkish stance is also likely to attract buyers to the Pound, which has weakened over the past three weeks. An appreciating currency will suppress imported inflation and dampen consumer demand, helping to bring CPI back to the 2% target. With explicit hawkish comments from the central bank, GBP can avoid breaking the upward trend of recent months and accelerating its decline.  
Forecasting the Future of Bitcoin: Analyzing Critical Price Levels for the Second Half of 2023

Forecasting the Future of Bitcoin: Analyzing Critical Price Levels for the Second Half of 2023

Marco Turatti Marco Turatti 03.08.2023 12:13
First and foremost, it is essential to acknowledge that predicting the future price movements of any market, including Bitcoin, comes with inherent challenges. The complexity of financial markets and the multitude of factors that influence them can make forecasting akin to predicting the weather – as we venture further into the future, the uncertainties increase, and accuracy becomes more elusive. That being said, the recent performance of BTC indicates a clear resistance level at 32,000, with signs of decreased flows observed among various market participants. As we look towards the medium to long term, it is prudent to consider critical price levels at around 27,900 (-3.9%), 25,500 (-12.2%), and 21,500 (-25%). These levels are likely to witness intense battles between holders and sellers, with potential shifts in sentiment impacting price movements. A crucial threshold to watch closely is 27.9k; a breach of this level could signal a break in this year's bullish channel, which, as of now, remains intact. However, it is vital to maintain perspective, even in the worst-case scenario, and currently, we are not contemplating anything below the last level of 21,500.   FXMAG: How do you think the price of Bitcoin will fall in the second half of 2023? First of all, readers should understand that forecasting the markets is in some ways similar to forecasting the weather: the further you go in time, the more unforeseen factors you have to take into account and the more difficult it is to have a truly professional estimate. That said, BTC has found a ceiling at 32k and it seems that various market makers are seeing their flows decrease lately. The medium to long term levels to take into account are around 27,900 (-3.9%), 25,500 (-12.2%) and 21,500 (-25%). Each of them will see a struggle between Holders and Sellers, while a break of the former (27.9k) would effectively sanction the break of this year's bullish channel - still intact at the moment. Even in the worst-case scenario, which is still a long way from happening, we are not considering anything below the last level for now.  
Market Reaction to Eurozone Inflation Report: Euro Steady as Data Leaves Impact Limited

Rates Reach New Highs: Implications for Markets and Central Banks

ING Economics ING Economics 22.08.2023 08:45
Rates Spark: Kicking off with new highs The week has started with new yield highs for the cycle, with 10Y USTs having topped 4.34%. The bearish set-up with a waning Fed cut discount prevails, and with the 20Y Treasury sale and the Jackson Hole symposium looming large later this week, the appetite to take the other side is small.   The bearish set-up for rates persist The week has kicked off with rates selling off again. The 10Y UST yield has in fact hit a new cycle high of 4.35%, surpassing the previous peak seen last October. One now has to look back to November 2007 to find yields at similar levels. It is not clear where the impulse came from this time around. There were no data releases of note, although risk assets had stabilised somewhat. There is of course the anticipation of the Jackson Hole symposium, which may be the reason for market participants' reluctance to take the opposite side of the trade. The general consensus appears to be for a slightly hawkish leaning tone from the Fed Chair, not necessarily with regards to where the terminal rate should be, but with a pushback against the discount of rate cuts further out. We have cautioned for some time now that the waning discount of Fed cuts with the Fed funds strip pricing a trough not materially below 4% would even support 10Y UST yields at 4.5% accounting for a term premium. Looking to Europe, we note that Bunds also sold off, but the 10Y Bund yield has not managed to rise beyond last week’s highs, holding around 2.7%. The expectations of weaker flash PMIs tomorrow may provide some tailwind to Bunds. However, we did see the 30Y push to new cycle highs at 2.8%. With the macro outlook bleak, the eurozone narrative for higher rates is still more centred around inflation risks. Energy, and in particular gas prices, remain volatile. And more generally the German Bundesbank yesterday warned in its monthly bulletin that inflation could stay above target for longer. The Bundesbank presented a survey that showed the European Central Bank’s 2% target has gradually lost relevance in wage negotiations, and highlighted the risk of higher inflation expectations becoming entrenched.     
Dollar Strength Continues as 10-year Treasury Surges to 4.34%, Reaching Highest Levels Since Financial Crisis

Dollar Strength Continues as 10-year Treasury Surges to 4.34%, Reaching Highest Levels Since Financial Crisis

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 22.08.2023 09:10
Canadian Dollar Experiences Biggest Intra-day Gain Since End of July. The Canadian dollar has been experiencing a steady weakening against the US dollar since mid-July. The ongoing bullish uptrend of USD/CAD is meeting resistance as foreign exchange traders speculate on the possibility of the Fed and BOC being close to completing their tightening cycles with one more rate hike. Major resistance at the 1.36 level could hold, potentially leading to a pullback targeting the 1.3454 level, the current 200-day SMA. The upcoming week might bring a hawkish stance from Fed Chair Powell, which could revive the king dollar trade. Oil Market Rally Fizzles Amid Strong Dollar Trade and Rising Real Yields Crude oil prices initially rallied in the morning, driven by expectations of a tight oil market due to current backwardation trends. However, the surge in real yields and a potential strong dollar resurgence after Jackson Hole are contributing to the reversal of the oil price rally. While risks to crude demand are emerging, the oil market's tightness should provide some support.     Dollar supported as 10-year Treasury hits 4.34%, highest levels since financial crisis Oil market to remain tight, but so far offers little help for the loonie Loonie was having biggest intra-day gain since end of July   The Canadian dollar has been steadily weakening against the greenback since the middle of July.  The USD/CAD bullish uptrend appears to be facing some resistance as FX traders anticipate both the Fed and BOC are possibly one more rate hike away from being done with tightening. It appears that major resistance from the 1.36 level might hold, so if a pullback emerges, downside could target the 1.3454 level, which is currently the 200-day SMA.  If markets get a very hawkish Fed Chair Powell this week could see the return of the king dollar trade.   Oil The morning oil price rally is fizzling as the strong dollar trade might be back given the surge in real yields.  Crude prices were much higher in early trade on expectations that the oil market would remain tight given the current backwardation. Risks to the crude demand outlook are growing, especially after China disappointed with last night’s easing, but for now a tight market should keep oil supported. The biggest risk for energy traders is if we see a massive wave of dollar strength after Jackson Hole. Right now there are so many oil drivers and most support higher prices. Heating oil prices are elevated and that might continue.  Iran nuclear talks won’t be having any breakthroughs anytime soon. Gulf of Mexico oil production could be at risk as a few formations build on the Atlantic.     Gold Gold’s worst enemy is surging real yields.  It was supposed to be a quiet start to the week for gold with China coming to the rescue and some calm before Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Powell.  There is a little bit of nervousness from the long-term bulls as gold futures are getting dangerously close to the $1900 level, which could trigger a wave of technical selling.  It seems gold needs some disorderly stress in financial markets for it to rally and that doesn’t seem like it is happening anytime soon. The outlook for the next few quarters is cloudy at best, but it seems that there is still too much strength in the economy that is dampening safe-haven flows for gold.  It doesn’t help that hedge funds are throwing in the towel for gold, which now has net-long positions at a five month low.        
European Markets Anticipate Lower Open Amid Rate Hike Concerns

New Inflation Methodology Sparks Hope for BoE as GBPUSD Faces Resistance

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 23.08.2023 10:33
New inflation methodology offers hope for BoE 1.28 could be major resistance point for GBPUSD A break of 1.26 could be bearish signal   Recent UK economic data has been a mixed bag, with wages rising at a much-accelerated rate but inflation decelerating as expected. While the Bank of England will be relieved at the latter, the former will remain a concern as wage growth even near those levels is not consistent with inflation returning sustainably to target over the medium term. The ONS released new figures overnight that appeared to suggest core inflation is not rising as fast as the CPI data suggests. The reportedly more sophisticated methodology concluded that core prices rose 6.8% last month, down from 7% the previous month and 7.3% the month before. The official reading for July was slightly higher at 6.9% but down from only 7.1% in May. So not only is the new methodology showing core inflation lower last month but the pace of decline is much faster. That will give the BoE hope that price pressures are easing and they’re expected to do so much more over the rest of the year.     GBPUSD Daily     It’s not clear whether this will prove to be a resumption of the uptrend or merely a bearish consolidation. It is currently nearing 1.28, the area around which it has previously run into resistance this month and around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Another rebound off here could be viewed as another bearish signal, which may suggest we’re currently seeing a bearish consolidation, while a move above could be more promising for the pound. If the pair does rebound lower then the area just above 1.26 will be key, given this is where it has recently seen strong support. It is also where the 55/89-day simple moving average band has continued to support the price in recent months.
US Treasury Yields Surge: Implications for Global Markets and Economies

US Treasury Yields Surge: Implications for Global Markets and Economies

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 23.08.2023 13:07
US Treasury yields continue to rise, with 2-year bonds exceeding 2% for the first time since 2009, the 10-year rate at its highest since 2007, and 30-year T-bonds setting a record.   On the one hand, the increase in Treasury yields indicates a decrease in risks, as a sell-off in bonds means a sell-off in risky assets. On the other hand, the burden on the US budget increases, and inflation expectations can grow again at any time. The risks on the path of inflation moving to the target level remain high.   The main threat to New Zealand and Australia is China's economic slowdown. Financial stress is increasing, and there are signs that China is heading towards a full-blown financial-economic crisis. The Chinese authorities have tools to prevent such an outcome, but a slowdown in GDP growth is almost inevitable, resulting in a decrease in foreign trade volumes. NZD/USD As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the rate at 5.5% at the meeting that ended last week. The tone of the accompanying statement unexpectedly gained an additional hawkish tilt due to a slight increase in the rate forecast (by 9bps). The GDP and inflation forecasts changed little, but the updated OCR track from 0.25% indicates that the RBNZ does not consider the current level as sufficiently restrictive as it did three months ago.     The risks for the New Zealand economy are diverse and to some extent offset each other, but in some cases, they intensify. High net migration is a good thing for the labor market, as the increase in labor supply will raise the unemployment rate but simultaneously allow wage growth to be contained, an essential criterion in the fight against inflation. At the same time, domestic demand is getting weaker, despite the influx of migrants. Exports fell by 14% YoY in July, while a decrease of only 4% was expected.   Imports fell by 15% (forecast 8%), partly due to lower global commodity and goods prices. On Thursday, a quarterly retail trade report will be published, which will serve as the basis for the forecasts for consumer demand. The net short position in the NZD increased by $123 million during the reporting week to -$145 million. Market positioning remains neutral with a slight bearish bias. The price is certainly falling, with no signs of a reversal.   A week earlier, we identified the support zone of 0.5870/5900 as a target, the pair has reached this target, and from a technical perspective, a bullish correction is possible. The nearest target is 0.5975, followed by 0.6010. At the same time, the primary trend remains bearish, so in the long term, after the corrective phase has ended, we expect another wave of sales, with the target being the support zone of 0.5830/50.     AUD/USD Australia's economic calendar for the week is calm, with no significant economic reports to take note of. The next week will be much more saturated - on August 29, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Michele Bullock will speak, and we can look forward to several reports, including the monthly Consumer Price Index for July, retail sales, and investment dynamics for the 2nd quarter, which will allow a preliminary assessment of GDP growth rates. The RBA rate forecast assumes another increase in November, as the RBA will likely respond to rising business costs, rent, and energy prices. Inflation is declining more slowly than in the United States. The net short position in the AUD increased by an impressive $620 million over the reporting week and reached -$3.45 billion, with market positioning firmly bearish. The price is below the long-term average but has lost momentum, suggesting an attempt at a corrective phase.  
Understanding the Factors Keeping Market Rates Under Upward Pressure

Swedish Krona's Plunge Amid Economic Challenges: Riksbank Rate Hike Expectations and Uncertain Future

Ed Moya Ed Moya 25.08.2023 09:39
Governor Thedeen say krona is fundamentally undervalued Markets fulling pricing in September Riksbank quarter-point rate hike Sweden’s government expects economy shrink by -0.8% in 2023 (previously eyed -0.4%) Sweden’s krona has been punished as the economy appears to be headed for a tough recession. Core inflation is coming down too slowly and that will keep the Riksbank hiking even as expectations grow for a lengthy recession.  The krona has not been getting any relief as many Swedes have started to embrace holding euros given the krona’s record plunge this year. Riksbank Governor Thedeen Riksbank governor Thedeen said that “the krona is too weak and it is fundamentally undervalued.” He added that “it should strengthen and we think that it will, but we know that it is almost impossible to predict currency moves over the short and medium term.” It is tough to call for a reversal after watching the krona fall to a fresh all-time low against the euro.  The current market expectations for the September meeting is to see the Riksbank raise rates by 25bps to 4.00%.  A freefalling krona is complicating the inflation fight, but that could see some relief as the outlook for the eurozone deteriorates. Expectations for the Sweden’s GDP are not seeing a strong consensus emerge.  Given the currency and inflation situation, it seems that the economy could be entering a recession that last more than a handful of quarters. The Swedish government is expecting a 0.8% decline in 2023 and a 1.0% growth for 2024.  It seems hard to believe that households will be a better position anytime soon, so a recession extending beyond 2024 seems likely.   The EUR/SEK weekly chart     EUR/SEK (weekly chart) as of Thursday (8/24/2023) shows the uptrend to record high territory is showing overbought conditions have arrived.  If the krona is able to firm up here, a mass exodus of EUR/SEK bullish bets could see price action tumble towards the 11.7118 region. If the plunge deeper into record low territory continues, EUR/SEK could make an attempt at the 12.000 which is just below the 141.% Fibonnaci expansion level of the 2020 high to 2021 low move. Last week, the krona was the most volatile G10 currency, so we should not be surprised if that volatility extends further given the chaos in the bond markets.    
GBP: ECB's Dovish Stance Keeps BoE Expectations in Check

Market Insights Roundup: A Glimpse into Economic Indicators and Corporate Performance

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 28.08.2023 09:11
In a world where economic indicators and market movements can shift with the blink of an eye, staying updated on the latest offerings and promotions within the financial sector is crucial. Today, we delve into one such noteworthy development that has emerged on the horizon, enticing individuals to explore a blend of banking and insurance services. As markets ebb and flow, being vigilant about trends and opportunities can lead to financial benefits. Let's explore this exciting promotion that brings together the worlds of banking and insurance to offer a unique proposition for consumers.     By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK) US non-farm payrolls (Aug) – 01/09 – the July jobs report saw another modest slowdown in jobs growth, as well as providing downward revisions to previous months. 187k jobs were added, just slightly above March's revised 165k, although the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, from 3.6%. While the official BLS numbers have been showing signs of slowing the ADP report has looked much more resilient, adding 324k in July on top of the 455k in June. This resilience is also coming against a backdrop of sticky wages, which in the private sector are over double headline CPI, while on the BLS measure average hourly earnings remained steady at 4.4%. This week's August payrolls are set to see paint another picture of a resilient but slowing jobs market with expectations of 160k jobs added, with unemployment remaining steady at 3.5%. It's also worth keeping an eye on vacancy rates and the job opening numbers which fell to just below 9.6m in June. These have consistently remained well above the pre-Covid levels of 7.5m and have remained so since the start of 2021. This perhaps explain why the US central bank is keen not to rule out further rate hikes, lest inflation starts to become more embedded.                          US Core PCE Deflator (Jul) – 31/08 – while the odds continue to favour a Fed pause when the central bank meets in September, markets are still concerned that we might still see another rate hike later in the year. The stickiness of core inflation does appear to be causing some concern that we might see US rates go higher with a notable movement in longer term rates, which are now causing the US yield curve to steepen further. The June Core PCE Deflator numbers did see a sharp fall from 4.6% in May to 4.1% in June, while the deflator fell to 3% from 3.8%. This week's July inflation numbers could prompt further concern about sticky inflation if we get sizeable ticks higher in the monthly as well as annual headline numbers. When we got the CPI numbers earlier in August, we saw evidence that prices might struggle to move much lower, after headline CPI edged higher to 3.2%. We can expect to see a similar move in this week's numbers with a move to 3.3% in the deflator and to 4.3% in the core deflator.       US Q2 GDP – 30/08 – the second iteration of US Q2 GDP is expected to underline the resilience of the US economy in the second quarter with a modest improvement to 2.5% from 2.4%, despite a slowdown in personal consumption from 4.2% in Q1 to 1.6%. More importantly the core PCE price index saw quarterly prices slow from 4.9% in Q1 to 3.8%. The resilience in the Q2 numbers was driven by a rebuilding of inventory levels which declined in Q1. Private domestic investment also rose 5.7%, while an increase in defence spending saw a rise of 2.5%.             UK Mortgage Approvals/ Consumer Credit (Jul) – 30/08 – while we have started to see evidence of a pickup in mortgage approvals after June approvals rose to 54.7k, this resilience may well be down to a rush to lock in fixed rates before they go even higher. Net consumer credit was also resilient in June, jumping to £1.7bn and a 5 year high, raising concerns that consumers were going further into debt to fund lifestyles more suited to a low interest rate environment. While unemployment remains close to historically low levels this shouldn't be too much of a concern, however if it starts to edge higher, we could start to see slowdown in both, as previous interest rate increases start to bite in earnest.            EU flash CPI (Aug) – 31/08 – due to increasing concerns over deflationary pressures, recent thinking on further ECB rate hikes has been shifting to a possible pause when the central bank next meets in September. Since the start of the year the ECB has doubled rates to 4%, however anxiety is growing given the performance of the German economy which is on the cusp of three consecutive negative quarters. On the PPI measure the economy is in deflation, while manufacturing activity has fallen off a cliff. Despite this headline CPI is still at 5.3%, while core prices are higher at 5.5%, just below their record highs of 5.7%. This week's August CPI may well not be the best guide for further weakness in price trends given that Europe tends to vacation during August, however concerns are increasing that the ECB is going too fast and a pause might be a useful exercise.     Best Buy Q2 24 – 29/08 – we generally hear a lot about the strength of otherwise of the US consumer through the prism of Target or Walmart, electronics retailer Best Buy also offers a useful insight into the US consumer's psyche, and since its May Q1 numbers the shares have performed reasonably well. In May the retailer posted Q1 earnings of $1.15c a share, modestly beating forecasts even as revenues fell slightly short at $9.47bn. Despite the revenue miss the retailer reiterated its full year forecast of revenues of $43.8bn and $45.2bn. For Q2 revenues are expected to come in at $9.52bn, with same store sales expected to see a decline of -6.35%, as consumers rein in spending on bigger ticket items like domestic appliances and consumer electronics. The company has been cutting headcount, laying off hundreds in April as it looks to maintain and improve its margins. Profits are expected to come in at $1.08c a share.        HP Q3 23 – 29/08 – when HP reported its Q2 numbers the shares saw some modest selling, however the declines didn't last long, with the shares briefly pushing up to 11-month highs in July. When the company reported in Q1, they projected revenues of $13.03bn, well below the levels of the same period in 2022. Yesterday's numbers saw a 22% decline to $12.91bn with a drop in PC sales accounting for the bulk of the drop, declining 29% to $8.18bn. Profits, on the other hand did beat forecasts, at $0.80c a share, while adjusted operating margins also came in ahead of target. HP went on to narrow its full year EPS profit forecast by 10c either side, to between $3.30c and $3.50c a share. For Q3 revenues are expected to fall to $13.36bn, with PC revenue expected to slip back to $8.79bn. Profits are expected to fall 20% to $0.84c a share.         Salesforce Q2 24 – 30/08 – Salesforce shares have been on a slow road to recovery after hitting their lowest levels since March 2020, back in December last year, with the shares coming close to retracing 60% of the decline from the record highs of 2021. When the company reported back in June, the shares initially slipped back after full year guidance was left unchanged. When the company reported in Q4, the outlook for Q1 revenues was estimated at $8.16bn to $8.18bn, which was comfortably achieved with $8.25bn, while profits also beat, coming in at $1.69c a share. For Q2 the company raised its revenue outlook to $8.51bn to $8.53bn, however they decided to keep full year revenue guidance unchanged at a minimum of $34.5bn. This was a decent increase from 2023's $31.35bn, but was greeted rather underwhelmingly, however got an additional lift in July when the company said it was raising prices. Profits are expected to come in at $1.90c a share. Since June, market consensus on full year revenues has shifted higher to $34.66bn. Under normal circumstances this should prompt a similar upgrade from senior management.   Broadcom Q3 23 – 31/08 – just prior to publishing its Q2 numbers Broadcom shares hit record highs after announcing a multibillion-dollar deal with Apple for 5G radio frequency components for the iPhone. The shares have continued to make progress since that announcement on expectations that it will be able to benefit on the move towards AI. Q2 revenues rose almost 8% to $8.73bn, while profits came in at $10.32c a share, both of which were in line with expectations. For Q3 the company expects to see revenues of $8.85bn, while market consensus on profits is expected to match the numbers for Q2, helping to lift the shares higher on the day. It still has to complete the deal with VMWare which is currently facing regulatory scrutiny, and which has now been approved by the UK's CMA.
Fed Chair Powell Signals Cautious Approach to Monetary Policy, Suggests Rates to Remain Elevated

Fed Chair Powell Signals Cautious Approach to Monetary Policy, Suggests Rates to Remain Elevated

ING Economics ING Economics 28.08.2023 09:13
Powell signals Fed to tread carefully, but that rates will stay high Chair Powell acknowledges that monetary policy is “restrictive” and that policymakers will “proceed carefully” in determining whether to hike rates further. September is set for a pause, but robust growth means the door remains ajar for a further potential hike. Markets see a 50-50 chance of a final hike while we think rates have most probably peaked. 2% remains the target with the Fed prepared to hike further In his Jackson Hole address, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed that the Fed remains focused on hitting the 2% inflation target and keeping it there. He spends a considerable amount of time breaking down inflation into different components and explaining the drivers, but as is usually the case, emphasises the non-energy, non-housing services. This remains the stickiest portion given relatively high labour input costs in a tight jobs market environment. Here, “some further progress… will be essential to restoring price stability”, but the expectation is that “restrictive monetary policy” will bring supply and demand into better balance and it will come down. In fact, the description “restrictive” with regards to monetary policy is used on seven occasions in his speech with higher borrowing costs and tighter lending conditions acknowledged as factors that will act as a brake on the economy and slow inflation to 2% over time. But Powell is wary the recent strength in activity data mean that the “economy may not be cooling as expected”. In turn, this “could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.” As a result, the Fed "are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective". Monetary policy signalled to stay tight Nonetheless, he acknowledges that monetary policy assessment is “complicated by uncertainty about the duration of the lags” between implementation and the real world impact. With real interest rates “well above mainstream estimates for the neutral policy rate” there is clearly a concern that the Fed don’t want to tighten too much. This view point was echoed in the minutes to the July FOMC meeting that said  “a number of participants judged that… it was important that the Committee's decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent overtightening of policy against the cost of an insufficient tightening”. With Chair Powell concluding that “we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data” we expect the Fed to leave the Fed funds target range unchanged at 5.25-5.5% at the September meeting. However, given the tight jobs market and strong third quarter activity the Fed will continue to signal the potential for one further rate rise before year-end in their forecast update, and will likely scale back the median forecast for 100bp of rate cuts in 2024 that it published in June.   We think rates have peaked and cuts will come in 2024 We don't think it will carry through with that final forecast hike though. The combination of higher borrowing costs, which is resulting in mortgage rates, credit card, auto loan and personal loan borrowing costs hitting two-decade plus highs, together with less credit availability, pandemic-era savings being run down and student loan repayments restarting should intensify the financial squeeze in the fourth quarter and beyond. So while the US economy may well expand at more than a 3% annualised rate in the current quarter, we expect to see a weaker performance in the fourth quarter together with further significant progress on inflation returning towards target. Our base case continues to be interest rate cuts through 2024 as monetary policy is relaxed to a more neutral footing.
China's Supportive Measures and Metals Market Outlook

China's Supportive Measures and Metals Market Outlook

ING Economics ING Economics 29.08.2023 10:10
Metals – Supportive measures from China China announced some measures on Monday to support the economy and financial markets. Beijing has reduced the stamp duty on stock trading by 50% (from 0.1% to 0.05%), with the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission also approving new retail funds to increase capital inflow and tightening IPO regulations to boost confidence among investors. Meanwhile, the National Development and Reforms Commission also pledged to increase private investments in the construction of national and key infrastructure projects including transportation, advanced manufacturing, and modern agriculture facilities among others. In addition, China announced some measures to support the flailing property sector. These measures have helped broader sentiment in financial markets. This is likely to see LME metals opening stronger today, with yesterday a bank holiday in the UK. Spot gold has managed to edge higher in recent days with the market reacting to hints from Jackson Hole that the Federal Reserve will likely keep rates unchanged at its September FOMC meeting. However, we could see some renewed pressure later in the year, with the market still coming around to the idea that the Fed may have to hike rates at least one more time later in the year. This continues to support the US dollar and treasury yields. However, we will need to keep a close eye on US data releases in the coming weeks, which could shed more light on what the Fed may do. This starts with the US jobs report on Friday. Despite strength in recent days, gold ETFs have seen 13 consecutive weeks of outflows. In addition, CFTC data show that over the last reporting week, speculators cut their net long in COMEX gold by 20,845 lots over the week to 25,695 lots, the lowest levels since March.
Strong August Labour Report Poses Dilemma for RBA: Will Rates Peak or Continue to Rise?

Eurozone Inflation Trends and ECB Meeting: Assessing Monetary Policy Options

ING Economics ING Economics 31.08.2023 12:12
Eurozone inflation stagnates ahead of ECB September meeting Inflation in the eurozone did not fall in August, which could tip the ECB in favour of a final 25bp hike at the governing council meeting in two weeks' time. Still, overall inflation dynamics remain relatively benign, and we still expect inflation to trend much lower at the end of the year. The eurozone inflation rate was stable at 5.3% in August, with core inflation also dropping to 5.3% (from 5.5% in July). Headline inflation was slightly higher than expectations due to energy price developments which increased by 3.2% month-on-month. This will fuel concern about inflation remaining more stubborn than anticipated. The overall trend in inflation remains cautiously disinflationary though as developments in goods and services inflation were more or less as expected. By country, we see that rising prices mainly came from France and Spain, while drops in the Netherlands and Italy kept inflation broadly in check. Energy effects and how they translate to consumer prices – look at rising regulated prices in France – were important drivers of differences this month. Looking ahead, more declines in inflation are in the making. In Germany, we expect a significant drop next month as base effects from government support drop from the data. Surveys also point to a sizable disinflationary effect for goods prices, while services inflation is set to fall more slowly thanks to higher wage costs. Indeed, wage growth is still trending above a level consistent with 2% inflation. For the European Central Bank, these August inflation data were among the most important data points ahead of the governing council meeting in two weeks’ time. While inflation remains stubborn enough to make ECB hawks uncomfortable, it does look like a further deceleration in inflation is in the making for the months ahead. Given the ECB mantra over recent months that doing too little is worse than doing too much in terms of hikes, we still expect another 25 basis point rate rise, despite this being a close call.
Assessing the Resilience of the US Economy Amidst Rising Challenges and Recession Expectations

Assessing the Resilience of the US Economy Amidst Rising Challenges and Recession Expectations

ING Economics ING Economics 01.09.2023 09:34
The US confounded 2023 expectations that it would fall into recession as households used pandemic-era savings and their credit cards to maintain lifestyles amidst a cost-of-living crisis. But with loan delinquencies on the rise, savings being exhausted, credit access curtailed and student loan repayments restarting, financial stress will increas.   Robust resilience in the face of rate hikes At the beginning of the year, economists broadly thought the US economy would likely experience a recession as the fastest and most aggressive increase in interest rates inevitably took its toll on activity. Instead, the US has confounded expectations and is on course to see GDP growth of 3%+ in the current quarter with full-year growth likely to come in somewhere between 2% and 2.5%. What makes this even more surprising is that this has been achieved in the face of banks significantly tightening lending conditions while other major economies, such as China, are stuttering and even entering recessions, such as in the eurozone.   Consumers still happy to spend with the jobs market looking so strong So why is the US continuing to perform so strongly? Well, the robust jobs market certainly provides a strong base, even if wage growth has been tracking below the rate of inflation. Maybe that confidence in job security has encouraged households to seek to maintain their lifestyles amidst a cost-of-living crisis by running down savings accrued during the pandemic and supplementing this with credit card borrowing. The housing market was another source of concern at the start of the year, but even with mortgage rates at 20-year highs and mortgage applications having halved, prices have stabilised and are now rising again nationally. Home supply has fallen just as sharply, with those homeowners locked in at 2.5-3.5% mortgage rates reluctant to sell and give up that cheap financing when moving to a different home and renting remains so expensive. This has helped lift new home construction at a time when infrastructure projects under the umbrella of the Inflation Reduction Act are supporting non-residential construction activity.   But lending is stalling and savings have been run down The Federal Reserve admits monetary policy is now restrictive, and while it could raise interest rates further, there is no immediate pressure to do so. With inflation showing encouraging signs of slowing nicely, this is fueling talk of a soft landing for the economy. With less chance of an imminent recession, financial markets have scaled back the pricing of potential interest rate cuts in 2024, with the resiliency of the US economy prompting a growing belief that the equilibrium level of interest rates has shifted structurally higher. This resulted in longer-dated Treasury yields hitting 15-year highs earlier this month.   Outstanding commercial bank lending ($bn)   Nonetheless, the threat of a downturn has not disappeared. We estimate that around $1.3tn of the $2.2tn of pandemic-era accumulated savings has been exhausted and at the current run rate all will be gone before the end of the second quarter of 2024. At the same time, banks are increasingly reluctant to lend to the consumer with the stock of outstanding bank lending flat lining since the banking stresses in March, having increased nearly $1.5tn from late 2021. We suspect that financial stresses have seen middle and lower income households accumulate the bulk of the additional consumer debt and have run down a greater proportion of their savings vis-à-vis higher income households so a financial squeeze for the majority is likely to materialise well before the second quarter of 2024.   Rising delinquencies will accelerate as student loan repayments resume Indeed, consumer loan delinquencies are on the rise, particularly for credit card and vehicle loans with the chart below showing data up until the second quarter of this year. Since then the situation has deteriorated further based on anecdotal evidence with Macy’s CFO expressing surprise at the speed and scale of the rise in delinquencies experienced through June and July on their own branded credit card (Citibank partnered). With credit card interest rates at their highest level since 1972 and with household finances set to become more stressed with the imminent restart of student loan repayments, something is likely to give. We see the risk of a further increase in delinquencies, which will hurt banks and lead to even further retrenchment on lending, together with slower consumer spending growth and potentially even a contraction.   Percent of loans 30+ days delinquent   Downturn delayed, not averted The manufacturing sector is already struggling and we see the potential for consumer services to come under increasing pressure too. On top of this there are the lingering worries about the demand for office space and the impact this will have on commercial real estate prices in an environment where there is around $1.5tn of loans needing to be refinanced within the next 18 months. With small banks the largest holder of these loans, we fear we could see a return to banking concerns over the next 12 months. Consequently, we are in the camp believing that it's more likely that the downturn has been delayed rather than averted. Fortunately, we think inflation will continue to slow rapidly given the housing rent dynamics, falling used car prices and softening corporate pricing power and this will give the Federal Reserve the flexibility to respond swiftly to this challenging environment. We continue to forecast the Federal Reserve will not carry through with the final threatened interest rate rise and instead will switch to policy loosening from late first quarter 2024 onwards.  
Challenges Loom Over Eurozone's Economic Outlook: Inflation, Interest Rates, and Uncertainty Ahead

Challenges Loom Over Eurozone's Economic Outlook: Inflation, Interest Rates, and Uncertainty Ahead

ING Economics ING Economics 01.09.2023 09:40
The third quarter may still be saved by tourism in the eurozone, but the latest data points to a more pronounced slowdown in the coming months. Inflation is falling, but a last interest rate hike in September is not yet off the table. The European Central Bank will be hesitant to loosen significantly in 2024, limiting the scope for a bond market rally.   Business sentiment in contraction territory In spite of heatwaves and wildfires, the tourist season seems to have been strong in Europe. It has continued to support growth in the third quarter following a better-than-expected growth figure in the second quarter. However, with the end of the summer in sight, we're now beginning to see a more sobering economic outlook emerge. The composite PMI survey for August was certainly a cold shower, falling to the lowest level in 33 months at 47 points. While the figure has already been in contraction territory in industry for some time, it has now fallen below the boom-or-bust level in the services sector. Deteriorating order books weighed on confidence in both the manufacturing and the services sector, which also explains why there were job losses in manufacturing while hiring plans in the services sector were put on a slow burner. This will probably stop the decline in unemployment in the eurozone. Disappointing external demand A softer labour market might lead to higher savings rates, thereby countering the positive impact on consumption of rising purchasing power. At the same time, the much-anticipated export boost is unlikely to materialise as the US economy eventually starts to cool while the Chinese recovery continues to disappoint. Finally, with a rapidly cooling housing market on the back of tighter monetary policy, the construction sector is also likely to see a slowdown. All of this explains why we still don’t buy the European Central Bank's story that economic recovery will strengthen on the back of falling inflation, rising incomes and improving supply conditions. We expect the winter quarters to see close to 0% growth, resulting in 0.6% annual GDP growth for both this year and next year.   Cooling housing market is likely to weigh on construction activity   Inflation is coming down, slowly While inflation is clearly trending down, the pace might still leave the ECB uncomfortable. Industrial goods prices have started to fall, but services prices are still growing monthly above 4% in annualised terms. Negotiated wage growth seems to have reached a plateau just below 4.5%. Still, given the slow productivity growth (with the decline in hours worked as one of the important drags), final demand will have to be very weak to prevent higher wages from feeding into higher prices. We expect headline inflation to hit 2% by the end of 2024, but over the coming months, core inflation remains likely to hover around 5%. As the recent trend in underlying inflation is one of the key determinants of monetary policy, this would lead to an additional rate hike.   Loan growth is close to stalling The ECB's job is almost done With credit growth now close to a standstill and money growth negative, there remains little doubt that monetary policy is already sufficiently restrictive and that the monetary transmission mechanism is working. On top of that, the median consumer inflation expectation for the period three years ahead fell back to 2.3% in June. So, it looks as though the job is nearly done. For now, we're still pencilling in a final 25 basis point hike for the ECB's September meeting – but it's a very close call. A pause would likely mean the end of the tightening cycle, as the faltering recovery will make it harder to continue raising rates afterwards. While we see the first rate cut by the summer of 2024, we can't imagine the central bank loosening aggressively next year. In her speech at Jackson Hole, President Christine Lagarde mentioned a number of structural changes that make the medium-term inflation outlook more uncertain, and we think that the ECB will keep short rates relatively high for some time to come. That will probably limit the potential for the bond market to rally strongly in the wake of the expected economic stagnation later this year.    
Assessing China's Economic Challenges: A Closer Look Beyond the Japanification Hypothesis"

Assessing China's Economic Challenges: A Closer Look Beyond the Japanification Hypothesis"

ING Economics ING Economics 01.09.2023 09:43
China’s latest activity data worsened across nearly every component. Markets have given up looking for fiscal stimulus, and have started making comparisons with 1990s Japan. We don’t agree with the Japanification hypothesis, but clearly a substantial adjustment is underway, and we have trimmed our growth forecasts accordingly.   Deflation is very different to this A couple of weeks ago, we wrote a piece debunking an argument that was doing the rounds which argued that China had slipped into deflation and was turning into a modern-day equivalent of 1990s Japan. Being old enough to remember that period quite well (unlike I imagine most of the proponents of the idea), it was clear to us that there was no merit to this view. Firstly, deflation is not negative consumer price inflation. Deflation is a much broader collapse in the general price level, which, in addition to consumer prices includes falls in real and financial asset prices, as well as money wages. And though we have seen some renewed falls in house prices, stocks are not looking very robust, and there is indeed some year-on-year decline in consumer prices, however, money wages are still positive. Moreover, the single defining feature of 1990s Japan was that it was the result of a monetary-induced bubble and subsequent bust. There was a property element to Japan's problems, but much more besides. Japan's response was a massive fiscal expansion, which failed to do much more than saddle the economy with a mountain of debt, and the rest is largely history. China’s issues also concern the property market, but it is the existence of large-scale local government debt that is the main constraint on the recovery. There is little evidence of any financial or property bubble. As a result, the government responses, of which there have already been a great many, have almost entirely focused on supply-side measures, which are only having a very marginal effect on activity.     Local government financing vehicles swell government debt    
UK Monetary Policy Outlook: A September Hike Likely, but November Uncertain

UK Monetary Policy Outlook: A September Hike Likely, but November Uncertain

ING Economics ING Economics 01.09.2023 09:47
Uncomfortably high inflation and wage growth should seal the deal on a September rate hike from the Bank of England. But emerging economic weakness suggests the top of the tightening cycle is near, and our base case is a pause in November. Markets have been reassessing Bank of England rate hikes Rewind to the start of the summer, and the view that the UK had a unique inflation problem had become very fashionable. At its most extreme, market pricing saw Bank Rate peaking at 6.5%, some 125bp above its current level. Since then, this story has begun to lose traction. The differential between USD and GBP two-year swap rates, a gauge of interest rate expectations, has halved. That reflects the growing reality that the UK inflation story looks less of an outlier than it did a few months back. Like most of Europe, food inflation has begun to slow, and further aggressive falls are likely judging by producer prices. Consumer energy bills fell by 20% in July, and another 5% decline is baked in for October. The Bank of England itself is now describing the level of interest rates as “restrictive” – a statement of the obvious perhaps, but nevertheless tells us that policymakers think they’ve almost done enough with rate hikes.   UK and US rate expectations have narrowed   A September hike is likely but November is less certain Still, we’re not quite there yet, and recent inflation data has continued to come in on the upside. Private sector wage growth – measured on a three-month annualised basis – is running at a cycle-high of 11%. Services inflation also edged higher in July, although this was partly attributable to some unusual swings in specific categories rather than broad-based moves. A September hike is therefore highly likely. Whether markets are right to be pricing another hike for November is less certain. We’ll only get one round of CPI and wage data between the September and November meetings. Wage growth is unlikely to have slowed much, but we’re hopeful for early signs that services inflation is inching lower. Various surveys suggest few service-sector firms are raising prices, and we think that reflects the sharp fall in gas prices. A lot also hinges on whether we continue to see signs of weakness in economic activity. Like Europe, the UK’s PMIs look worrisome and will have prompted some pause for thought at the Bank of England. The jobs market is also cooling, and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio – which BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has consistently referenced – is closing in on pre-Covid highs. There’s also been an ongoing improvement in worker supply. We’re now at a point where survey numbers and various bits of official data suggest that both economic growth and inflation are losing steam. The inflation and wage growth figures aren’t there yet, but these are lagging perhaps most out of all economic indicators. A November pause isn’t guaranteed, but it remains our base case. To some extent, we’re splitting hairs. In the bigger picture, the Bank is becoming much more focused on how high rates need to go – and instead, the central goal will increasingly become keeping market rates elevated long after it stops hiking. Any further rate hikes should be seen as a means to that end.      
Turbulent FX Markets: Peso Strength, Renminbi Weakness, and Dollar's Delicate Balance

Turbulent FX Markets: Peso Strength, Renminbi Weakness, and Dollar's Delicate Balance

ING Economics ING Economics 01.09.2023 10:28
FX Daily: Peso too strong, renminbi too weak, dollar just right FX markets await today's release of the August US jobs report to see if we've reached any tipping point in the labour market. Probably not. And it is still a little too early to expect the dollar to embark on a sustained downtrend. Elsewhere, policymakers in emerging markets are addressing currencies that are too weak (China) and too strong (Mexico).   USD: The market seems to be bracing for soft nonfarm payrolls data Today's focus will be the August nonfarm payrolls jobs release. The consensus expects around a +170k increase on headline jobs gains, although the "whisper" numbers are seemingly nearer the +150k mark. Importantly, very few expect much change in the 3.5% unemployment rate. This remains on its cycle lows, continues to support strong US consumption, and keeps the Fed on its hawkish guard. We will also see the release of average hourly earnings for August, which are expected to moderate to 0.3% month-on-month from 0.4%. As ING's US economist James Knightley notes in recent releases on the US economy and yesterday's US data, there are reasons to believe that strong US consumption cannot roll over into the fourth quarter and that a recession is more likely delayed than avoided. But this looks like a story for the fourth quarter. Unless we see some kind of sharp spike higher in unemployment today, we would expect investors to remain comfortable holding their 5.3% yielding dollars into the long US weekend. That is not to say the dollar needs to rally much, just that the incentives to sell are not here at present. If the dollar is at some kind of comfortable level, policy tweaks in the emerging market space over the last 24 hours show Beijing trying to fight renminbi weakness and Mexico City trying to fight peso strength (more on that below). We suspect these will be long, drawn-out battles with the market. DXY can probably stay bid towards the top of a 103-104 range.
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MXN Outlook: Banxico's View on a Strong Peso Sparks USD/MXN Rally

ING Economics ING Economics 01.09.2023 10:56
MXN: Banxico expressing a view over a strong peso Unlike Chinese authorities which are battling renminbi weakness and cut the FX deposit required reserve ratio last night, Mexican authorities are seemingly expressing a view that the peso is too strong. Here USD/MXN spiked more than 2% last night after Banxico announced that it would allow its "hedge book" or short USD/MXN position in the FX forward market to roll off rather than be extended.  By way of background, Banxico has intervened to support the peso during two periods (February 2017 and March 2020) and has done this by auctioning dollars through the FX forward markets using one-month to 12-month tenors. The total size of those positions is now around $7.5bn. Banxico announced yesterday that it would allow this position to roll off gradually, effectively over the next 12 months. Investors have read this as Banxico expressing a view that the peso has come far enough. And given the peso has been a prime beneficiary of the carry trade, we should not underestimate the risk of a further correction higher in USD/MXN ahead of this long US weekend. Yet USD/MXN has traded below 17.00 for very good reasons, including high carry and nearshoring trends. And given our view that the dollar does turn lower next year, we see the Banxico move as slowing rather than reversing the USD/MXN trend. Two further quick points: returns on the MXN carry trade may now come more from carry than nominal MXN appreciation, and speculation may grow in the TIIE market (Mexican swap curve) that Banxico may prefer early rate cuts after all if it does not want its currency to strengthen much more.
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Metals Surge on China's Property Sector Stimulus and Positive Economic Data

ING Economics ING Economics 01.09.2023 10:59
Metals – Fresh stimulus from China for the property sector Base metals prices extended this week’s gains this morning as healthy economic data and fresh stimulus measures in China buoyed sentiment. Caixin manufacturing PMI in China increased to 51 in August compared to 49.2 in July; the market was expecting the PMI to remain around 49. This is the strongest manufacturing PMI number since February. Meanwhile, Beijing has announced fresh stimulus measures aimed at supporting the property sector. The People’s Bank of China has lowered the minimum downpayment for mortgages for both first-time buyers (from 30% to 20%) and second-time buyers (from 40% to 30%) while the minimum interest premium charged over the Loan Prime Rate has also been reduced. China is also allowing customers and banks to renegotiate interest rates on existing housing loans which could reduce interest expenses for borrowers. LME continues to witness an inflow of copper into exchange warehouses. LME copper stocks increased by another 3,675 tonnes yesterday, taking the total inventory to a year-to-date high of 102.9kt. Meanwhile, cancelled warrants for copper remain near zero levels, hinting that there may not be any inventory withdrawals from LME in the short term and total stocks could continue to climb over the coming weeks. Europe witnessed an inflow of 2,700 tonnes yesterday whilst 950 tonnes were added in the Americas and 25 tonnes in Asia. Gold prices have held steady at around US$1,940/oz as the latest economic data from the US eased some pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue with rate hikes. The core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) deflator in the US increased at a flat 0.2% month-on-month in July, the second consecutive month at 0.2% which should help the Fed in getting inflation back on track to around 2%. On the other hand, data from Europe was not that supportive with core CPI falling gradually from 5.5% to 5.3% and CPI estimates remaining flat at 5.3%. The focus is now turning to today’s US non-farm jobs report which is expected to show a smaller rise in payrolls in August.
RBA Expected to Pause as Inflation Moves in the Right Direction

RBA Expected to Pause as Inflation Moves in the Right Direction

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 04.09.2023 15:42
RBA expected to pause US nonfarm payrolls rise slightly to 187,000 The Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains. In Monday’s European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6464, up 0.21%.   RBA expected to pause The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 4.10% when it meets on Tuesday and a rate hike would be a huge surprise. The central bank has paused for two straight meetings and the odds of a third pause stand at 86%, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. The most important factor in RBA rate policy is of course inflation. In July, CPI fell to 4.9% y/y, down from 5.4% y/y and better than the consensus of 5.2% y/y. Inflation is moving in the right direction and has dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. A third straight pause from the RBA will likely raise expectations that the current rate-tightening cycle is done but I don’t believe we’re at that point just yet. This is Governor Lowe’s final meeting and he is expected to keep the door open to further rate hikes. Incoming Governor Bullock stated last week that the RBA “may still need to raise rates again”, adding that the Bank will make its rate decisions based on the data. The RBA isn’t anywhere near declaring victory over inflation and has projected that inflation will not fall back within the 2%-3% inflation target until late 2025.   The week wrapped up with the US employment report for August. The Fed will be pleased as nonfarm payrolls remained below 200,00 for a third straight month, rising from a revised 157,000 to 187,000. Wage growth fell to 0.2% in August, down from 0.4% in July and below the consensus of 0.3%. The data cements a rate hold at the September 20th meeting, barring a huge surprise from the CPI report a week prior to the rate meeting. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6458. Above, there is resistance at 0.6516 There is support at 0.6395 and 0.6337    
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Rates Spark: Close calls as EUR rates drift higher ahead of ECB Decision and US Market Return

ING Economics ING Economics 05.09.2023 11:38
Rates Spark: Close calls EUR rates have drifted higher, contemplating the chances of further ECB tightening. Returning US markets today could extend the momentum of the late Friday sell-off while busy issuance could add to the upward pressure. Eventually data decides for how long 10Y UST yields can be supported in the 4 to 4.25% area, with eyes this week on tomorrow's ISM services.   With the US out for Labor Day, EUR rates drifted higher at the start of the week with the usually more policy-sensitive belly of the curve in the lead. European rates' main focus remains the ECB, given the proximity of the next meeting and given that it's the final chance officials have to communicate their policy preferences ahead of the quiet period. ECB President Lagarde’s speech yesterday yielded little concrete information regarding the ECB's  next steps –  even though the speech centred around the importance of communication. She did remark that “action speaks louder than words”. While she was arguably talking more about what the ECB has already achieved, hiking rates by 425bp over a relatively short time span of 12 months, the comment surely resonates with the ECB’s hawks' current thinking about the upcoming decision. Over the weekend the ECB’s Wunsch already opined that "a bit more" tightening was necessary. Bundesbank’s Nagel delved into more technical matters around the ECB’s decision to end the remuneration of banks' minimum reserves. He argued that more should be done on reserves – if via not rates, it seems some hawks are ready to consider other options for tightening financial conditions. Important inputs to the upcoming decision are measures of expected inflation. Market based measures, such as the 5y5y forward inflation swap, have recently come off their peaks but remain mired in relatively elevated territory. The aforementioned 5y5y forward is still close to 2.6%. As ECB's Schnabel noted in last week's speech this is also a reflection of growing uncertainty surrounding the longer inflation outlook and could in turn reflect slowly eroding credibility of the ECB’s commitment to get inflation to 2%. Today the ECB will release its consumer survey which has seen 3y median inflation expectations already drop from 3% at their peak to 2.3% as of June. That is also ready close to 2%, but before the turmoil of 2022 median expectations were usually even closer to 2%. The June survey results also pointed to a more pronounced tail in the distribution, towards higher inflation outcomes.   The last ECB hike had little traction further out the curve
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In a Defining Move, Bank of Canada Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged Amidst Global Economic Uncertainty

FXMAG Education FXMAG Education 06.09.2023 13:37
In a pivotal decision, the Bank of Canada has chosen to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5%, opting for stability amidst a backdrop of increasing uncertainty in the global economy. This move underscores the delicate balancing act that central banks worldwide are currently navigating as they seek to foster economic growth while mitigating the persistent threat of inflationary pressures.   At the Heart of the Matter The Bank of Canada's steadfast commitment to keeping interest rates at their current level is emblematic of the institution's concerns regarding the fragility of the global economic recovery. While inflation remains a prevalent worry, policymakers are treading cautiously to avoid the potential adverse consequences of premature rate hikes.   A Global Ripple Effect The Bank of Canada's stance on interest rates carries significant implications that extend well beyond its borders. As one of the world's leading economies, Canada's monetary policy decisions hold the power to influence the strategies adopted by central banks in other nations. Additionally, these decisions reverberate through global financial markets, shaping investor sentiment and influencing asset prices. In a rapidly evolving economic landscape, the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain interest rates provides a snapshot of the nuanced considerations faced by central banks worldwide. As they grapple with uncertainty and attempt to strike a delicate balance between economic growth and inflation control, the world watches with keen interest, cognizant of the potential ripple effects that each policy move may bring.   This article aims to provide readers with a succinct yet comprehensive overview of the Bank of Canada's recent interest rate decision and its broader implications within the global financial landscape. Optimized for SEO, it offers valuable insights into the current challenges facing central banks and the evolving dynamics of the global economy.   The decision by the Bank of Canada to maintain interest rates at 5% highlights the central bank's cautious approach to addressing economic challenges. In the face of uncertainties such as the ongoing global supply chain disruptions and the potential impact of new variants of the COVID-19 virus, central banks worldwide are opting for prudence. By holding the benchmark rate steady, the Bank of Canada aims to support domestic economic recovery while closely monitoring inflationary pressures. This stance reflects a broader trend among central banks, as they grapple with the complexities of an ever-evolving economic landscape.   The Bank of Canada's decision will undoubtedly be scrutinized by economists, policymakers, and financial markets, as it provides valuable insights into the delicate balancing act of managing economic growth and inflation in a post-pandemic world. In this interconnected global economy, the implications of such decisions ripple across borders, affecting businesses, investors, and individuals alike.   As economic conditions continue to evolve, central banks remain at the forefront of efforts to navigate the path forward, seeking to foster stability and sustainable growth in an uncertain world. In a rapidly shifting economic landscape, the Bank of Canada's choice to maintain interest rates provides a snapshot of the multifaceted considerations confronting central banks worldwide. As they grapple with an atmosphere of uncertainty and endeavor to strike an intricate balance between stimulating economic growth and effectively managing inflation, the world watches with acute interest. It is well aware of the potential far-reaching consequences that each policy decision can bring.  
Positive Shift in Inflation Structure: Core Inflation Falls in Hungary

Positive Shift in Inflation Structure: Core Inflation Falls in Hungary

ING Economics ING Economics 08.09.2023 13:33
Inflation structure takes a favourable turn Upward pressure on inflation in August came mainly from fuel and other non-core items, and disinflation was more widespread than expected (including services). This explains why we're now seeing a stronger deceleration in core inflation than in the headline. The core reading fell 2.3ppt to 15.2% YoY. This is not just a base effect phenomenon, as the month-on-month print was 0.2%. Moreover, over the last three months, core inflation has averaged 0.247% MoM, which is in line with the central bank's target of 3% annualised inflation. We are not saying the job is done, but the underlying inflation performance is encouraging. Other underlying indicators, such as the sticky price inflation calculated by the National Bank of Hungary, are also promising and suggest that price pressures are continuing to ease in the deeper layers of the economy. Hungary is slowly but surely coming out of the woods.   Headline and underlying inflation measures (% YoY)     Single-digit inflation achievable by November In light of today's data, a single-digit inflation rate at the end of the year seems certain. If there are no further price shocks, we could even see a rate below 10% as early as November. If we see a continuation of the recent repricing trend, and based on retail price expectations, we can be hopeful that the core reading will reach the sub-10% range by December. When it comes to average headline inflation, we have not changed our view and are looking for an inflation rate of around 18% in 2023 on average.     The correlation between retail price expectations and core inflation   Looking ahead to next year, we're expecting average inflation to be at around 5.0% – although we still see some upside risks. The expected dynamic wage outflows next year should translate into significant positive real wage growth. Households with savings in inflation-linked retail bonds should also see a large coupon payment in the first quarter of 2024. Should the reinvestment rate turn out to be lower than expected, the rising consumption propensity could bring back the strong repricing power of companies on the back of boosted domestic demand. Upcoming tax changes – such as the increase in fuel excise duty and the hike in road tolls – could also lead to second-round effects. On the other hand, recessionary risks in the developed world and the renewal of corporate energy contracts expiring this year on much more favourable terms will help to partially offset these risks.   No room for complacency in monetary policy In our view, monetary policy is unlikely to be significantly influenced by inflation developments in August. It is almost out of the question that the central bank will cut the effective rate to 13% in September, merging this with the base rate. The National Bank of Hungary will reduce the complexity of the monetary policy to some extent. However, given the risks to financial markets (mostly FX markets) and the evolution of global monetary policy with higher-for-longer narratives, the central bank may adopt a more hawkish stance than the market consensus after September, which could include leaving the effective interest rate unchanged for one or two months.    
ECB Decision Dilemma: Examining the Hawkish Hike and Its Potential Impact on Rates and FX

ECB Decision Dilemma: Examining the Hawkish Hike and Its Potential Impact on Rates and FX

ING Economics ING Economics 12.09.2023 08:54
ECB cheat sheet: Is a hike hawkish enough? Markets are torn. Will the ECB hike this week or not? We think it will, but we look at how different scenarios can impact rates and FX. Even in our base case, we suspect that convincing markets that this is not the peak will be very hard, and dovish dissenters may get in the way. The upside for EUR rates and the euro may not be that big and above all, quite short-lived.       As discussed in our economics team’s European Central Bank meeting preview, we narrowly favour a rate hike this week. The consensus of economists is slightly tilted towards a hold, and markets also see a greater chance of no change (60%). In the chart above, we analyse four different scenarios, including our base case, and the projected impact on EUR/USD and 10-year bunds. We expect to see a more fragmented than usual Governing Council at this meeting. Whichever direction the ECB decides to take, the debate will likely be fiercer than in previous meetings, as lingering core inflationary pressure is being counterbalanced by evidence of rapidly worsening economic conditions in the euro area. Accordingly, expect the overall messaging by the ECB to be influenced not only by the written communication but also by: a) how much President Christine Lagarde manages to conceal growing division and disharmony within the Governing Council during the press conference and; b) any post-meeting “leaks” to the media, which could be used by dissenters to influence the market impact.        
📈 Tech Giants Soar, 💵 Dollar Plummets! Disney-Charter Truce, Wall Street's AI Warning!

📈 Tech Giants Soar, 💵 Dollar Plummets! Disney-Charter Truce, Wall Street's AI Warning!

FXMAG Education FXMAG Education 12.09.2023 13:04
In the ever-evolving landscape of global finance, each day brings its own set of surprises and challenges. From the commanding rise of tech giants to the dramatic fall of the dollar against the yuan, and the intriguing insights into Wall Street's AI revolution, the financial world is in constant motion. Join us as we unravel the recent events that have left an indelible mark on the financial markets. Tech Giants' Green Day Tech giants have once again demonstrated their prowess by leading a remarkable "green day" in the market. The likes of Apple, Amazon, and Tesla have shown that their influence extends far beyond the confines of the digital realm. Their ability to sway the financial tide reflects the transformative power of technology in today's economy. Dollar's Dip Against Yuan In a surprising turn of events, the dollar experienced its most significant drop in months against the yuan. This shift has far-reaching implications for international trade and currency markets. Investors are closely monitoring this trend as it may signal changes in global economic dynamics. Disney and Charter Resolve Dispute Disney and Charter Communications recently settled a long-standing dispute, a development that has brought relief to millions of households. The resolution paves the way for the return of ESPN and ABC to 15 million households, underscoring the significance of healthy negotiations in the media industry. Alibaba's New CEO Charts a Course Alibaba, one of the world's largest e-commerce and technology conglomerates, welcomed a new CEO who promptly outlined strategic priorities. The decisions made by this industry giant have the potential to influence not only the company's future but also the broader tech landscape Wall Street's AI Craze Wall Street has been abuzz with the AI craze in recent years, but is it reaching its peak? Investment guru Jim Cramer has issued a warning, suggesting that the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence in finance may be nearing its zenith. This assessment invites us to contemplate the future of finance and technology.   The financial world is a dynamic and ever-shifting ecosystem where tech giants flex their muscles, currencies dance to their own tunes, and Wall Street continually seeks new frontiers. As we navigate the intricacies of this realm, one thing remains certain: the financial markets will continue to be a source of fascination and opportunity for those who dare to tread its waters. Stay tuned for more updates on the captivating world of finance.
Sticky US Inflation Expected to Maintain Dollar Strength Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Sticky US Inflation Expected to Maintain Dollar Strength Ahead of FOMC Meeting

ING Economics ING Economics 13.09.2023 08:52
FX Daily: Sticky US inflation to keep dollar bid Today sees the last major US inflation report ahead of the next FOMC meeting on 20 September. Higher gasoline prices and base effects are expected to push August CPI up to 3.6% YoY, and on a core and month-on-month basis, we also see an upside risk to the 0.2% MoM consensus estimate – clearly not enough to feed a bearish dollar narrative.   USD: CPI figures to keep the dollar firm The highlight of today's session will be the August US CPI release. As our US economist James Knightley discusses here, the headline year-on-year rate is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.2% on base effects and higher gasoline prices. And while the core YoY rate may drop to 4.4% from 4.7%, an above consensus core month-on-month reading – possibly on the back of airfares and medical costs – will hardly support any narrative of the Federal Reserve's work being done. This will probably lay the groundwork for a reasonably hawkish FOMC meeting this time next week, where despite unchanged rates, the Fed will (through its Dot Plots) hold out the threat of one further hike this year. All of the above should keep the dollar reasonably bid and keep policymakers in the likes of China and Japan busy fighting local currency weakness (more below). We are bearish on the dollar from the fourth quarter of this year, but this bearish narrative requires a few more weeks of patience. We favour DXY edging back to the top of its 104.50-105,00 range today.
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The Impact of Global Developments on Financial Markets: Oil Prices, Inflation, and Equities

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 13.09.2023 13:49
 Following on from weakness in the US and Europe, stocks in Asia fell across the board as oil prices extended gains ahead of today’s key US inflation report. The weakness in US stocks was led by technology companies with Apple dropping almost 2%. The potentially tightest oil market in a decade lifted oil prices while raising fresh inflation concerns saw the 2-year Treasury yield back above 5%, while the dollar traded mixed against its G10 peers after seeing broad gains on Tuesday. US CPI the focus today given the current 50/50 split on whether the FOMC will hike rates one more time.   Equities: Nasdaq 100 futures are sliding further this morning to the 15,478 level as Apple’s iPhone event last night failed to muster any excitement, which means that the market is now in a wait-and-see mode ahead of today’s US inflation report. Energy stocks continue to be in focus given the rally in Brent crude on estimated oil supply shortfall due to Saudi Arabia’s oil production cuts. FX: Higher crude oil prices made CAD the G-10 outperformer with USDCAD down to 1.3550 from 1.3590 but EUR attempted to catch up in late NY/early Asian hours on ECB leak that inflation forecasts may be raised higher which are seen to be raising the prospect of a hike this week. EURUSD jumped higher to 1.0770 with EURGBP above the 0.86 hurdle as GBPUSD dipped below 1.25 on not-so-hawkish labor market. USDCNH takes another leg lower below 7.29 but AUDUSD also dipped to 0.64 handle in Asia. Commodities: Saudi Arabia’s ‘stable market’ reason for cutting production rings increasingly hallow after OPEC in their monthly report said the market may experience a shortfall of 3.3m b/d in the fourth quarter. With the EIA meanwhile only predicting a 230k b/d shortfall, OPEC could find themselves being accused of trying to inflate prices to meet big spending plans among its members. IEA’s report will be on watch today ahead of the US CPI print and EIA’s weekly stock report which according to API’s figures may show a rise. Oil’s rally to a fresh 10-month high and the stronger dollar saw gold drop below 200DMA as inflation concerns returned, bringing more fear of rate hikes. Fixed income: European sovereign curves are likely to bear-flatten this morning after Reuters reported that the ECB expects inflation to remain above 3% next year and growth to be downgraded for this and next year. Despite the upcoming forecasts painting the perfect stagflation picture for the eurozone, policymakers will weigh their options carefully and tilt towards a hawkish pause rather than a hike. Yet, they might need to reinforce their message by ending reinvestments under the PEPP facility. That would buy them enough time to wait for rate hikes to feed through the economy instead of adding pressure to the German and Dutch recessions. The focus today is on the US CPI numbers and the 30-year US Treasury auction. Volatility: VIX traded 43 cents higher at 14.23, but more importantly the VIX futures traded 1.31 higher, up to 15.95, indicating there is some uncertainty about the upcoming US inflation report. Adobe, which is scheduled to release its earnings report later this week, closed lower yesterday. Options traders were divided on the stock, with the put/call ratio at 1, indicating that equal amounts of calls and puts were traded. This might suggest that there is no clear consensus on how the earnings report will be received.  Macro: ECB’s new 2024 inflation projection could be raised above 3% vs 3% in June, firming case for interest rate hike. ECB also to cut 2023 and 2024 economic growth projections to broadly in line with market expectations. UK labor report was mixed with headline earnings up 8.5% YoY in July vs. 8.2% expected. For more, read our latest Macro/FX Watch. In the news: Europe's high gas prices hit industrial output – full story on Reuters. Apple unveiled four new iPhone models with a muted reaction from investors in extended trading – full story in FT. Technical analysis: S&P 500 rejected at 4,540 resistance level, expect set back, support at 4,340.Nasdaq 100 rejected at 15,561 key resistance level. USDJPY uptrend eyeing 149-150. EURUSD downtrend, support at 1.0685, Expect short-term bounce to 1.08. Brent oil uptrend potential to 98.50 Macro events: UK Industrial Production (Jul) exp. -0.7% m/m vs 1.8% prior (0600 GMT), US CPI (Aug) exp. 0.6% m/m and 0.2% core vs 02% and 0.2% prior (1230 GMT), US 30-year T-bond auction ($20 billion) Commodities events:  IEA’s Oil Market Report (0900 GMT), EIA’s Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report (1430 GMT) Earnings events: Inditex F424 1H results, which have already reported with EPS at €0.81 vs est. €0.80 and a small positive revenue surprise.  
Rates and Cycles: Central Banks' Strategies in Focus Amid Steepening Impulses

Rates and Cycles: Central Banks' Strategies in Focus Amid Steepening Impulses

ING Economics ING Economics 25.09.2023 11:11
Rates Spark: Drawing out the cycles With the Bank of England's hold, while retaining all optionality, another central bank is attempting to draw out the cycle. That may keep bull steepening impulses at bay for now and leave room for a steepening more driven via the back end first if data broadly holds. The PMIs are the main data event for today.   Steepening impulses from here on are probable, but not necessarily via the front end first Following the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England has now also decided to keep rates on hold in a close 5-4 vote by the committee. But all options for another hike remain on the table. Maybe the BoE decided that the Fed’s approach was better suited to its needs than the European Central Bank’s. The ECB had hiked, but in signalling that rates had reached levels sufficiently high to make a substantial contribution to reaching the inflation goal had been interpreted as rates having essentially topped. ECB officials have since pushed against this notion, emphasising that this still means rates can rise under certain conditions. And some have resorted to shifting the discussion to the balance sheet. And the idea that speeding up quantitative tightening should precede rate cuts – as some officials have hinted – may be another strategy to draw out the cycle. Especially given that anything involving the ECB’s balance sheet, including discussion about potentially adjusting the minimum reserve ratio, also ties in with the review of the operational framework, which is slated to conclude only by the end of the year. The bullish steepening impulses that would typically unfold once cycle peaks have been reached are being held back by the optionality to do more that central bankers have retained. Still, we feel the room for policy rates to rise further is running out as headwinds are accumulating, but until markets see an actual smoking gun they remain more cautious. Having been caught off-guard by the surprisingly hawkish Fed and its impact bear flattening, even if quickly reversed, is a case in point. In the meantime, the steepening impulses could continue to come from the back end as long as the data broadly holds, although the outright levels now look elevated at the back end. Still, the initial jobless claims data has just proven its relevance again yesterday, accelerating the steep sell-off in 10Y USTs towards 4.5%. If cracks become more obvious, a brief bull flattening seems possible if central bankers are reluctant to embrace the signs of an impending downturn as they remain focussed on inflation risks – the effect of conducting policies via the rear mirror to which especially the ECB appears susceptible. The overly rosy outlooks from the Fed and also the ECB’s own very optimistic view make room for disappointments. But we feel these could be brief interludes only or even just play out in relative terms.   The long end is pulling the curve steeper   Today's events and market view The US data have shown again what is relevant for the market. In the end, everything hinges on the data and whether it finally topples over. Today, the flash PMIs are the main event. Recall that in the US the larger surprise is the S&P PMI services last month had sent jitters through the market, but sentiment was probably also driven by the even larger disappointment in the European PMIs. For today, markets are seeing eurozone services slipping deeper below 50, while the manufacturing index is seen only slowly climbing out of its hole. All are still in recessionary territory.    Next week data will remain the main theme. In the US, the main focus is on the consumer with confidence readings as well as personal income and spending data – the consumer story is a crucial input for the soft landing scenario. We will also get the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. In the eurozone, the main highlight is the September flash CPI, and it should give us more reasons to believe we have already seen the last ECB hike.
Rates Spark: Escalating into a Rout as Bond Bear Steepening Accelerates

Market Jitters: Strong US Jobs Data Sparks Fear of Tightening Labor Market and Rising Yields

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 05.10.2023 08:54
The fear of strong jobs By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   Even a hint of an improving US jobs market sends shivers down investors' spines.  This is why the stronger than expected job openings data from the US spurred panic across the global financial markets yesterday. Although hirings and firings remained stable, the financial world was unhappy to see so many job opportunities offered to Americans as the data hinted that the US jobs market could be going back toward tightening, and not toward loosening. And that means that Americans will keep their jobs, find new ones, asked better pays, and keep spending. That spending will keep US growth above average and continue pushing inflation higher, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not only keep interest rates higher for longer but eventually be obliged to hike them more. Alas, a catastrophic scenario for the global financial markets where the rising US yields threaten to destroy value everywhere. PS. JOLTS data is volatile, and one data point is insufficient to point at changing trend. We still believe that the US jobs market will continue to loosen.  But the market reaction to yesterday's JOLTS data was sharp and clear. The US 2-year yield spiked above 5.15% after the stronger than expected JOLTS data, the 10-year yield went through the roof and hit the 4.85% mark. News that the US House Speaker McCarthy lost his position after last week's deal to keep the US government open certainly didn't help attract investors into the US sovereign space. The US blue-chip bond yields on the other hand have advanced to the highest levels since 2009, and the spike in real yields hardly justify buying stocks if earnings expectations remain weak. The S&P500 is now headed towards its 200-DMA, which stands near the 4200 level. The more rate sensitive Nasdaq still has ways to go before reaching its own 200-DMA and critical Fibonacci levels, but the selloff could become harder in technology stocks if things got uglier.  In the FX, the US dollar extended gains across the board. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rate steady at 5.5% as expected. Due today, the ADP report is expected to show a significant slowdown in US private job additions last month; the expectation is a meagre 153'000 new private job additions in September. Any weakness would be extremely welcome for the rest of the world, while a strong looking data, an - God forbid – a figure above 200K could boost the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks and bring the discussion of a potential rate hike in November seriously on the table.   The EURUSD consolidates below the 1.05 level, the USDJPY spiked shortly above the 150 mark, and suddenly fell 2% in a matter of minutes, in a move that was thought to be an unconfirmed FX intervention. Gold extended losses to $1815 per ounce as the rising US yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold.  The barrel of American crude remains under pressure below the $90pb level. US shale producers say that they will keep drilling under wraps even if oil prices surge to $100pb, pointing at Joe Biden's war against fossil fuel. A tighter oil supply is the main market driver for now, but recession fears will likely keep the upside limited, and September high could be a peak. 
The Fear of Strong Jobs: How US Labor Market Resilience Sparks Global Financial Panic

The Fear of Strong Jobs: How US Labor Market Resilience Sparks Global Financial Panic

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 05.10.2023 08:55
The fear of strong jobs By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   Even a hint of an improving US jobs market sends shivers down investors' spines.  This is why the stronger than expected job openings data from the US spurred panic across the global financial markets yesterday. Although hirings and firings remained stable, the financial world was unhappy to see so many job opportunities offered to Americans as the data hinted that the US jobs market could be going back toward tightening, and not toward loosening. And that means that Americans will keep their jobs, find new ones, asked better pays, and keep spending. That spending will keep US growth above average and continue pushing inflation higher, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not only keep interest rates higher for longer but eventually be obliged to hike them more. Alas, a catastrophic scenario for the global financial markets where the rising US yields threaten to destroy value everywhere. PS. JOLTS data is volatile, and one data point is insufficient to point at changing trend. We still believe that the US jobs market will continue to loosen.  But the market reaction to yesterday's JOLTS data was sharp and clear. The US 2-year yield spiked above 5.15% after the stronger than expected JOLTS data, the 10-year yield went through the roof and hit the 4.85% mark. News that the US House Speaker McCarthy lost his position after last week's deal to keep the US government open certainly didn't help attract investors into the US sovereign space. The US blue-chip bond yields on the other hand have advanced to the highest levels since 2009, and the spike in real yields hardly justify buying stocks if earnings expectations remain weak. The S&P500 is now headed towards its 200-DMA, which stands near the 4200 level. The more rate sensitive Nasdaq still has ways to go before reaching its own 200-DMA and critical Fibonacci levels, but the selloff could become harder in technology stocks if things got uglier.  In the FX, the US dollar extended gains across the board. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rate steady at 5.5% as expected. Due today, the ADP report is expected to show a significant slowdown in US private job additions last month; the expectation is a meagre 153'000 new private job additions in September. Any weakness would be extremely welcome for the rest of the world, while a strong looking data, an - God forbid – a figure above 200K could boost the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks and bring the discussion of a potential rate hike in November seriously on the table.   The EURUSD consolidates below the 1.05 level, the USDJPY spiked shortly above the 150 mark, and suddenly fell 2% in a matter of minutes, in a move that was thought to be an unconfirmed FX intervention. Gold extended losses to $1815 per ounce as the rising US yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold.  The barrel of American crude remains under pressure below the $90pb level. US shale producers say that they will keep drilling under wraps even if oil prices surge to $100pb, pointing at Joe Biden's war against fossil fuel. A tighter oil supply is the main market driver for now, but recession fears will likely keep the upside limited, and September high could be a peak.   
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Mid-East Tensions Drive Surge in Oil Prices: US Dollar and Gold Emerge as Safe Havens

ING Economics ING Economics 09.10.2023 16:05
Oil up, capital flows into safe haven on Mid-East tensions By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   Capital flows into the safety of US dollar and gold this morning, while oil is up almost 4% after Hamas' unexpected attack on Israel wreaked havoc in the region last Friday, and tensions have been mounting since then. There are rumours that Iran helped Hamas organize its attack, and the US said it's sending warships to the region. The escalation of the tensions sent a panic wave into the financial markets on Monday open. The barrel of American crude traded past $87pb, as fears of a potential retaliation against Iran threaten the passage of vessels carrying oil through the Strait of Hormuz and flip the market rhetoric from a potentially slowing global oil demand to tight global supply.   It is difficult to predict the extent of the price action on geopolitical shocks. The fact that the US and Iran are pulled into the turmoil hints that tensions may further escalate. From a price perspective, the $90pb level is expected to shelter decent offers in US crude, as escalation and prolongation of Mid-East tensions could be the final straw that could bring the world very close to the brink of recession, and temper appetite for oil. It's too early to call.   From a geopolitical perspective, this war is different from the one in 1973 because the political and the geopolitical landscape is unalike. First Arabic countries are not attacking Israel together. Second, OPEC countries do have spare capacity that they restrict willingly to maintain oil price at above the $80pb, but they don't necessarily think of tripling oil prices – which would only accelerate the energy transition. Third, yes, the US could continue to tap into its strategic oil reserves to level out a potential price shock even though SPR is down to a 40-year low following the Ukrainian war and finally, the Ukrainian war and embargo on Russian oil are already in play and the West has little margin to impose another embargo on Arab oil. This being said, potential retaliation against Tehran is a serious upside risk for oil prices. We will keep an eye on developments, but don't speculate on a full-blast rise in oil prices for now.   Trading in Asia was mixed, stocks in Tel Aviv lost 6.5%, sentiment in Europe is sour and the US equity futures are down. Gold acts as a strong safe haven. The price of an ounce jumped past the $1850 level this morning, and further escalation of tensions should drive capital into the safety of gold. The upside potential extends to a distant $2000 per ounce, but gains due to geopolitical tensions are not expected to last long. What will remain decisive for gold's medium, long-term performance will be the US yields. For now, they are on a rising path.   Even though last Friday seems like it was ages ago, the NFP printed a shocker 336K new nonfarm job additions. But the wages growth was softer than expected and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%, instead of cooling down to 3.7% as expected by analysts. Expectations of November rate hike are steady, there is near 80% chance of no rate hike.  This week, the market attention will shift to the big bank earnings, and to the latest US inflation update. The US consumer price inflation is seen easing from 0.7% to 0.3% on a monthly basis thanks to the cooling energy prices over the past month, and the yearly CPI figure could soften from 3.7% to 3.6%. The core CPI, which is more important for the Fed expectations, is expected to have eased to 4.1%. The US 10-year yield is at the highest level since 2007; no surprise or a good surprise could spark interest from bond traders at the current levels.  
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ECB Maintains Status Quo: Lagarde's Rhetoric and Euro Dynamics Unveiled

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 27.10.2023 15:21
"Now is not the time to talk about future prospects". That was the tone of the European Central Bank's October meeting, the results of which were revealed on Thursday. Overall, the central bank made the expected decision to maintain interest rates as they were. The likelihood of this scenario being realized was 100%, so the market paid little attention to the formal outcomes of the meeting. The EUR/USD pair remained in a standstill, awaiting ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference. Lagarde slightly stirred the pair with her rhetoric, and the dynamics initially favored the euro. The bulls pushed toward the boundaries of the 1.6-figure but hesitated to attack that target due to weak fundamental arguments. It's worth noting that in the lead-up to the October meeting, most experts were confident that the ECB would keep not only monetary policy unchanged but also the main formulations of the accompanying statement unchanged. According to their forecasts, Lagarde was also expected to reiterate the main theses outlined after the previous meeting - that the ECB was unlikely to raise rates in the foreseeable future but would commit to keeping them at the current level for a long time. In addition, some experts considered the possibility that the Bank would reduce interest rates in the first half of 2024, given the drop in overall and core inflation in the eurozone and the weak 0.1% growth in the European economy in the second quarter.   However, the ECB did not present any hawkish or dovish surprises. Admittedly, Lagarde did tweak the tone of her rhetoric, offering some support for the euro, but these remarks failed to impress the market. In general, the ECB head merely dispelled rumors that the central bank is ready to discuss the timing and conditions of monetary policy easing. According to her, the issue of lowering interest rates was not discussed at the recent meeting as "it would be premature." She also said that the ECB had not discussed the possibility of changing the terms of the PEPP asset purchase program, which had been rumored in October. Lagarde emphasized that the central bank would reinvest all the cash it receives from maturing bonds it holds under the program, at least until the end of 2024. Regarding the fate of interest rates, on one hand, the ECB head reiterated that "rates are at levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to our target." But on the other hand, she listed inflationary risks. Among these are the recent sharp rise in energy prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the possible increase in food prices, and active wage growth in eurozone countries. Lagarde emphasized that internal price pressures remain strong, and "the risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside." Such rhetoric does not indicate that the ECB is ready to return to raising rates in the near future. But at the same time, Lagarde effectively refuted rumors that the central bank is considering easing the terms of its APP in the near term. Her statement that "now is not the time for forward guidance" can be interpreted in different ways, either in the context of potential future policy tightening or easing. However, if we compile the main theses voiced by Lagarde, we can conclude that the ECB has primarily distanced itself from the scenario of lowering interest rates in the near future. Thus, the ECB, while not providing substantial support to the euro, also did not exert significant pressure on the single currency. The ECB's meeting did not meet the doves' expectations (as there were no hawkish expectations). We can assume that the market will shift its focus to American events starting on Friday. The main focus will be on the PCE index. The U.S. economy expanded at a robust 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, the highest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to a mere 2.1% growth in the U.S. economy in the second quarter. If the primary personal consumption expenditure index reaches the forecast level (not to mention the "red zone"), the dollar could come under significant pressure as risk appetite may increase in the market. Signs of slowing inflation amid strong GDP growth are likely to contribute to a decline in Treasury yields, and consequently, the greenback
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Bank of Japan's YCC Tweaks Disappoint Markets: USD/JPY Rises Above 150

ING Economics ING Economics 02.11.2023 12:05
Bank of Japan disappoints markets again despite another YCC tweak It seems the Bank of Japan has opted for a little bit of everything by changing its reference rate for YCC, revising up inflation outlooks and scrapping daily fixed-rate bond purchase operations. However, markets appear disappointed with the BoJ's willingness to keep its YCC framework, with initial reactions showing USD/JPY and JGB yields moving higher.   Perhaps today's tweak is not that minor after all Following a local media leak on a possible adjustment to the Bank of Japan's Yield Curve Control (YCC) framework, market sentiment quickly shifted from no change in YCC to some change – such as lifting the upper limit ceiling from the current 1.00% to 1.25%, or even higher. The BoJ's verdict was eliminating the effective upper ceiling of 1%, but keeping 1% as a reference (raised from 0.5%) and ending daily fixed-rate bond purchases. This will give the central bank more flexibility but adds more uncertainty to the market. Many market participants probably think that today's BoJ tweaks are minor, as major policy settings remained unchanged, the reference rate was kept at 1%, and the fiscal year 2025 (FY25) inflation outlook remained below 2%. While it's true that the BoJ tweaked the wording from the upper ceiling to the reference, 1% is still 1%. However, in our view, ending the daily bond purchase program is a major step taken by the Bank of Japan today. It means that it won't explicitly fix the rate any more and will let the market decide. The BoJ can now allow the JGB 10Y yield above the reference, but certainly will not let it get too far. The revised inflation outlook also hints at possible policy changes in the future, but it has yet to be reached with confidence as the FY25 outlook was kept below 2%. For the time being, the BoJ will continue to maintain its YCC policy and buy more time to anchor long-tenor yields down to support the economy until it confirms continued wage growth beyond this year. Governor Kazuo Ueda also said at its press conference that next spring's wage negotiations are a key event.    BoJ's newest outlook report suggests a pivot is coming There are two surprises in the newest outlook report that caught our eye. The inflation outlook for FY24 is too high, but too low for FY25. The fiscal year 2023 and 2024 inflation outlooks were upwardly revised to 2.8% from the previous 2.5% and 1.9% respectively, and inched up only to 1.7% from the previous 1.6% for 2025. We had expected to see an above 2% inflation outlook for FY24, but the following year's outlook should remain untouched. Now, the Bank of Japan forecasts that inflation will likely rise steadily at 2.8% in FY23 and FY24, suggesting that it is set to remain above target throughout FY24. The BoJ seemingly tried to send a message to the market that it considers the current overheated inflation to be transitory by keeping its outlook for FY25 below the 2% target – but at the same time, the higher projection may secure room for the central bank to be flexible on how to respond to higher inflation next year.    Inflation will likely remain high throughout FY 24   The next quarterly outlook report will be out in January, and perhaps the Bank of Japan can scrap the YCC at this point. It will heavily depend on global bond market trends. By then, market rates are expected to step down in line with UST moves, and the BoJ will have the right opportunity to abandon YCC as pressure on the JGB also subsides a bit. With today's policy decision, we have revised up our JGB 10Y forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2023 onwards. The BoJ's bond purchase operations will likely increase to keep market rates not too far from the reference rate of 1%. We're also maintaining our long-standing first rate hike call for the central bank in the second quarter of next year. We have argued for sustainable inflation, the closing of negative output gaps and healthy wage growth as prerequisites for the BoJ's action, and we believe that the central bank's last puzzle of healthy wage growth could be met by the second quarter of 2024.   FX: USD/JPY will keep policy makers busy A disappointingly modest adjustment to the BoJ's YCC strategy has seen USD/JPY push back above 150. As above, it seems like the BoJ did not want to risk a JGB market meltdown by opting for larger steps today. Unless US data softens sharply or the Federal Reserve surprises by dropping its hawkish bias, it looks like USD/JPY can push onto the 152 area – marking last October's intra-day spike high. Depending on how USD/JPY gets to 152 – quickly, or in a slow grind – this will probably determine how quickly Japanese authorities intervene. In total, Tokyo sold $70bn in September and October last year, with around half of that coming when USD/JPY spiked to 152 in late October. On the subject of FX intervention, we had been expecting the Ministry of Finance to release FX intervention figures for October today, but have not seen anything yet. We think that Japanese authorities, like the Chinese authorities, are praying for a turn in the dollar to take pressure off their own currencies. And whilst the dollar stays strong, intervention (or in China's case, funding squeezes) will be used to ride out the strong dollar storm. Today's Bank of Japan move suggests USD/JPY continues to trade around 150 into year-end and has a better chance of turning lower in the first quarter of next year when the dollar should be softer and the BoJ could exit YCC more forcefully.
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Czech National Bank Initiates Cutting Cycle with 25bp Move amid Economic Concerns

ING Economics ING Economics 02.11.2023 14:47
CZK: CNB to start its cutting cycle We expect the Czech National Bank (CNB) to start the cutting cycle today with its first 25bp move. This seems fully in line with market pricing and economist consensus. However, surveys suggest it is a close call. And of course, upward pressure on commodity prices and tensions in the Middle East may be reasons to wait a little longer for the CNB. But we believe the new forecast plus weak economic data this week will be sufficient reasons to cut rates today. In addition to the decision itself, we will also see new numbers that should be revised towards a worse economic outlook, lower inflation, a weaker CZK and a faster pace of rate cuts. However, for the markets, today's cut has become a done deal and the collapse in PRIBOR in recent weeks indicates that more than 25bp is priced in for today's meeting. At the same time, the entire curve has shifted lower, making essentially the entire cutting cycle already priced in 1y horizon. We see a significant deterioration in the risk/reward of being received in rates at current levels versus a scenario of no rate cut today. In the FX market, we see the situation getting a lot easier. In the event of a rate cut being delivered, we expect EUR/CZK higher in the 24.80-25.00 range supported by a new CNB forecast indicating levels above 25.00 and still room to price in further rate cuts in the longer term, which would lead to a deterioration in the interest rate differential. Otherwise, we think the potential for CZK appreciation is limited and EUR/CZK may touch 24.50 only temporarily.
The December CPI Upside Surprise: Why Markets Remain Skeptical About a Fed Rate Cut in March"   User napisz liste keywords, oddzile je porzecinakmie ChatGPT

Bank of England Holds Rates Steady Amid Growing Rate Cut Expectations for 2024

ING Economics ING Economics 02.11.2023 15:10
Bank of England keeps policy steady but pushes back against rate cut expectations The Bank of England may have kept rates on hold, but we're seeing the first signs of pushback against financial markets which are starting to price in rate cuts for 2024. We think investors are right to be thinking that way and we expect the first cut over summer next year.   The Bank of England has kept rates on hold for a second consecutive meeting and, barring some major unpleasant surprises in the data between now and Christmas, it’s fair to say the tightening cycle is over. On the face of it, this latest decision looks neither surprising nor controversial. Six members voted to keep rates on hold and three for a hike, in line with what more or less everyone had expected. With the exception of Sarah Breeden, where this was her first meeting, the remaining members voted exactly as they did in September – a recognition that we’ve had very little data since then, and what we have had hasn’t moved the needle for policy. But beneath the surface, we detect hints that the Bank is uncomfortable with markets beginning to price rate cuts for next year. Ahead of the meeting, investors were pricing at least two 25 basis point cuts by the end of 2024. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is quoted as saying it’s “too early” to be talking about cuts, while the statement says rates need to be restrictive for “an extended period of time”. That's a slight hardening in the language compared to what we'd seen in August and September. And while the Bank’s models forecast inflation a touch below target in two years' time – which is considered to be the time horizon over which monetary policy is more effective – they show headline CPI at 2.2% once an “upside skew” is applied. That’s policymakers trying to tell us that, at the margin, the amount of tightening and subsequent easing may be insufficient to get inflation back to target. That said, the committee is visibly putting less weight on its forecasts than it once might have done given ongoing uncertainty and poor model performance.   The Bank's models point to inflation at or just below target in two years' time   As has been clear since the start of the summer, this is a central bank whose overriding goal now is to convince investors that it won’t need to cut rates for a significant period of time. However, we believe markets are right to be thinking about rate cuts from next summer. As the BoE itself acknowledges, much of the impact of past tightening is still to hit the economy. We estimate the average rate on mortgage lending, which so far has gone from 2% to 3.1%, will go to 3.8% by the end of 2024 as more homeowners refinance. It will be higher still if the Bank ultimately doesn’t cut rates next year. We also forecast core inflation to be below 3% by next August – and assuming the jobs market continues to gradually weaken, we think the Bank will be in a position to take its foot off the brake. We’re forecasting a gradual easing cycle that takes Bank Rate back to just above 3% by the middle of 2025 from the current 5.25% level.
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The Czech National Bank's Prudent Approach: Unchanged Rates and Economic Evaluation

ING Economics ING Economics 03.11.2023 14:01
Czech National Bank review: Staying on the safe side The CNB decided to wait for the start of the cutting cycle due to concerns about the anchoring of inflation expectations, high core inflation in its forecast and possible spillover into wage negotiations. The December meeting is live, but we slightly prefer the first quarter of next year. Economic data will be key in coming months.   Rates remain unchanged for a little longer The CNB Board decided today to leave rates unchanged despite expectations of a first rate cut. Five board members voted for unchanged rates at 7.00% and two voted for a 25bp rate cut. During the press conference, Governor Michl justified today's decision on the continued risk of unanchored inflation expectations, which may be threatened by the rise in October inflation due to the comparative base from last year. This could seep into wage negotiations and threaten the January revaluation, according to the CNB. At the same time, the board still doesn't like to see core inflation near 3% next year. So overall, it wants to wait for more numbers from the economy and evaluate at the December meeting, which the governor said could be another decision on whether to leave rates unchanged or start a cutting cycle   New forecast shows weaker economy and more rate cuts The new forecast brought most of the changes in line with our expectations. The CNB revised the outlook for GDP down significantly and the recovery was postponed until next year. Headline inflation was revised down slightly for this year but raised a bit for next year. The outlook for core inflation will be released later, but the governor has repeatedly mentioned that the outlook still assumes around 3% on average next year. The EUR/CZK path has been moved up, but slightly less than we had expected. 3M PRIBOR has been revised up by a spot level from the August forecast, implying now the start of rate cuts in the fourth quarter of this year and a larger size of cuts next year. For all of next year the profile is 30-65bp lower in the rate path, indicating more than 100bp in cuts in the first and second quarter next year.   New CNB forecasts   First cut depends on data but a delay until next year is likely Today's CNB meeting did not reveal much about what conditions the board wants to see for the start of the cutting cycle and given the governor's emphasis on higher inflation in the next three prints, we slightly prefer February to December. The new inflation forecast indicates 8.3% for October and levels around 7% in November and December. The last two months seem too low to us, but given the announced energy price cuts, this is not out of the question. So this is likely to be a key indicator looking ahead as to whether or not it will give enough confidence to the board that inflation is under control. Another key question is whether the CNB will move up the date of its February meeting so that it has January inflation in hand for decision-making.   What to expect in FX and rates markets EUR/CZK jumped after the CNB decision into the 24.400-500 band we mentioned earlier for the unchanged rate scenario after the decision. For now, the interest rate differential does not seem to have changed much after today's meeting, which should not bring further CZK appreciation. On the other hand, the new CNB forecast showed EUR/CZK lower than we expected and the board seems more hawkish. Therefore, we could see EUR/CZK around these levels for the next few days if rates repricing remains roughly at today's levels. However, we expect pressure on a weaker CZK to return soon as weaker economic data will again increase market bets on a CNB rate cut, which should lead EUR/CZK to the 24.700-24.800 range later. In the rates space, despite the high volatility, the market did not change much at the end of the day. The very short end of the curve (FRAs) obviously repriced the undelivered rate cut, however the IRS curve over the 3Y horizon ended lower, resulting in a significant flattening of the curve. The market is currently pricing in more than a 150bp in cuts in a six-month horizon, which in the end is not so much given the possible acceleration of the cutting pace after the January inflation release. Even though the CNB didn't deliver today's rate cut, we think the central bank is more likely to catch up with the rate cuts next year rather than the entire trajectory shifting. Therefore, we see room for the curve to go down, especially in the belly and long end.
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Unlocking Opportunities: In-Depth Analysis and Trading Tips for EUR/USD

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 08.11.2023 13:49
Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD Further decline became limited because the test of 1.0681 coincided with the sharp downward move of the MACD line from zero. This happened even though several Fed representatives hinted at the possible continuation of the rate hike cycle and the lesser chance of a reduction in borrowing costs. Today, CPI data for Germany and retail sales report for the eurozone will come out, but it will not have much impact on the market. Instead, the speech of ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane will generate interest, as well as the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.     For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0700 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0730. Growth will occur after protecting the support at 1.0680. However, when buying, make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0681, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0700 and 1.0730. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0681 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0656. Pressure will increase after an unsuccessful attempt to hit the daily high, as well as weak data from the eurozone. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line lies under zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0700, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0681 and 1.0656.     What's on the chart: Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market   Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Shift in Central Bank Sentiment: Czech National Bank Hints at a 50bp Rate Cut, Impact on CZK Expected

Czech Inflation Inches Up: Analyzing the Numbers and Future Rate Cut Prospects

ING Economics ING Economics 10.11.2023 11:24
Czech inflation rises on base effects Inflation rose in October, as expected, due to the effect of government measures last year. However, the trend remains disinflationary. Inflation will fall again in November and we are likely to approach inflation targets in January. However, the central bank will probably want to have the January number in hand before cutting rates.   Seasonal effects kick-started inflation again Headline inflation accelerated again from -0.7% to 0.1% month-on-month in October, which translated into a rise from 6.9% to 8.5% year-on-year due to the base effect from last year when the government introduced measures to reduce household energy prices. The statistical office mentions that without this effect, inflation in October would have been 5.8% YoY. The result was 0.1ppt above the market's and our expectations and 0.2ppt above the Czech National Bank's forecast. However, the range of estimates was very wide and biased towards higher numbers this time.   Food prices rose for the first time since May, up 0.8% MoM, which was an expected seasonal rebound but we had expected a smaller increase. Housing prices fell 0.5% MoM dragged down by energy prices, in line with our forecast. Fuel prices were flat for the first time after a large increase in recent months. And clothing prices rose 2.4% MoM, in line with seasonal expectations.   Headline inflation breakdown (pp)   Above the CNB forecast but still close Core inflation fell from 5.0% to 4.5% YoY, according to our calculations. The CNB expects 4.0% on average for the fourth quarter, implying that today's number should be close to the central bank's forecast. However, as always, we will see the official numbers later today. Our fresh nowcast indicator for November shows 7.3% YoY, which would again be slightly above the CNB's forecast (7.1%) but less than we expected earlier. Surprisingly for us, the central bank left rates unchanged in November and, as we mentioned in the CNB review, the board seems to be more cautious than we expected. So today's numbers will not be a game changer and as we mentioned earlier, for now, we see February as the more likely opportunity for a first rate cut given that we are unlikely to see much information changing the overall picture until the December meeting.
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National Bank of Hungary Maintains Course with 75bp Rate Cut in November

ING Economics ING Economics 23.11.2023 13:59
No surprise in November The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) reduced its base rate by 75bp to 11.50% at its November rate setting meeting. At the same time, the entire interest rate corridor was lowered by 75bp, maintaining the symmetry of the +/- 100bp range. Although this was again a unanimous decision, the menu seen in October was also present at this rate-setting meeting. That is, the Monetary Council decided between a 50, 75 or 100bp cut. The statement and press conference made it clear what the reasoning was for sticking with the proverbial golden mean.   The pros and cons canceled each other out A hawkish shift compared to the October meeting was dropped due to favourable incoming macroeconomic data. Hungarian inflation returned to single-digit territory, with the underlying monthly repricing pattern showing similarities to 2019-2020 (pre-shock pattern). The improvement in the external balance continued on the back of rising export capacity, supported by shrinking domestic demand, which reduced import needs and the energy balance also improved. Last but not least, together with the ongoing disinflation, the Hungarian economy exited the recession and the incoming high-frequency data suggest that the year-on-year print could return to positive territory from the fourth quarter of 2023. However, all these positive changes have been accompanied by significant external risks. Geopolitical tensions and sanctions are still with us, and we can't rule out another shock to energy and commodity markets as a result. The armed conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza keep the economic landscape highly unpredictable. On the macroeconomic side, there are ongoing labour market tensions and recessionary fears in the international environment. Against this background, the Monetary Council decided to maintain its cautious approach and closed the door on the dovish 100bp easing option.   Steady as she goes Even before today's official and explicit forward guidance, we expected the National Bank of Hungary to stick to the recent step size as the baseline pace of further rate cuts. During the background discussion, Deputy Governor Virág made it clear that – based on the latest information – the policy rate could fall below 11% by the end of the year and reach single digits in February 2024. We wouldn't go so far as to say that this is a pre-commitment, but it's certainly the closest thing to it. Such a rate path would imply a continuation of 75bp rate cuts up to (and including) the February rate-setting meeting. In general, the statement and the press conference did not bring any changes either in the tone of monetary policy or in the main functions that influence monetary policy decisions. As a result, today's rate-setting meeting can be described as a well-managed non-event.   Our market views After the NBH meeting, everything seems to be in line with market expectations and rates have not moved much. This is good news for the HUF, which has re-established a relationship with rates over the last three days and has weakened to 380 EUR/HUF before the meeting. Still, the recent rally in rates points to weaker HUF levels, but this will probably not be the case for now. A stable NBH and higher EUR/USD could offset this, plus we could see some progress in negotiations with the EU in the near term. Overall, today's meeting thus seems to be positive for HUF, which will halt the weakening from recent days. In the short term we probably need to see some catalysts for new gains, e.g. the EU story, but overall we remain positive on the HUF. If everything goes in a positive direction, then we believe EUR/HUF will move into the 370-375 range before the year ends. On the other hand, the current weakness probably hasn't changed the market's long positioning much and we should still keep that in mind if bad news comes. Rates have rallied a lot in recent weeks and have closed the biggest gaps between market pricing and our forecast. But something is still missing to perfection and we still see the whole curve lower but rather flatter later. At the short end of the curve, we think the market needs to accommodate the set pace of 75bp rate cuts as the central bank confirmed today, while the long end remains significantly elevated also because of high core rates. Thus, as we mentioned earlier, the long end in our view has more potential to rally further and the curve has steepened too early and too quickly, closing the gap with the region.
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ECB Minutes Reveal Cautious Outlook on Growth, Signaling 'High for Longer' Approach

ING Economics ING Economics 23.11.2023 14:29
ECB minutes confirm more cautious take on growth The just released minutes of the ECB’s October meetingshow a more concerned central bank regarding growth and a clear attempt to stick to ‘high for longer’ The European Central Bank (ECB) is back to releasing minutes of its meetings three and not two weeks ahead of the next meeting. With this development, the minutes will have less lasting impact on financial markets. They are rather a reflection of the mood during the meeting and not so much an indicator of what will happen next.   Main messages from the minutes The minutes confirmed the more cautious tone ECB President Christine Lagarde had already shown during the press conference in October. Risks to the growth outlook were clearly to the downside, and a disinflationary process had set in. The ECB seemed happy with markets expecting rates to remain high for a longer period than predicted ahead of the Governing Council’s September meeting. The phrase “it was deemed important for the Governing Council to avoid an unwarranted loosening of financial conditions” shows why ECB officials tried to talk up market expectations again after the meeting. In fact, ECB officials did what they agreed during the meeting; the minutes state that “members agreed that the Governing Council should continue to stress its determination to set policy rates, through its future decisions, at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner.”   End of rate hikes In short, the minutes underline the ECB’s more cautious take on the economy and, in fact, mark the next phase of monetary policy tightening: ending rate hikes and focusing on ‘high for longer’. Obviously, it was and is too early for the central bank to close the door to further rate hikes entirely. However, ongoing growth disappointments combined with a disinflationary process that is likely to gather more traction, it will be hard to justify any further rate hikes. On the contrary, while the central bank may not want to talk about it – or even spell it out – rate cuts could enter the ECB’s vocabulary faster than many currently think.  
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Australian Dollar Surges, Eyes on Retail Sales Amid RBA Overhaul Plans

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 27.11.2023 15:38
Australian dollar extends gains Australian retail sales expected to decelerate to 0.1% The Australian dollar has extended its gains at the start of the week. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6603, up 0.28%. The Aussie has posted an impressive streak, rising 3.8% against the greenback since November 14th. Australia releases retail sales for October on Tuesday. The consensus estimate stands at a negligible 0.1%, compared to a strong 0.9% gain in September. The sharp gain, which indicated resilience in consumer spending, provided support for the RBA to raise rates at the November meeting. If retail sales misses the estimate, it could sour sentiment towards the Aussie and send the currency lower. RBA Governor Michele Bullock will speak at an event in Hong Kong on Tuesday and investors will be looking for hints about what the RBA is planning at its meeting on December 5th. RBA to undergo major overhaul Changes, big changes are coming to the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Australian government announced it would introduce legislation to overhaul the central bank. This follows an independent review which called for sweeping changes at the RBA. There has been much criticism of the RBA for its pledge not to raise rates before 2024, only to embark on a tightening campaign which has raised the cash rate to 4.35%. The new Governor, Michele Bullock, has said she is favour of the changes. Last week, Bullock said on Tuesday that inflation has peaked and that the upside risk to inflation was domestic and demand-driven. Bullock noted that inflation had dropped from 8.0% to 5.5% in less than a year, but it would take much longer for inflation to drop that amount again and fall to 3%. The RBA’s target range is 2%-3%. The RBA remains hawkish and raised rates earlier this month after holding rates for four straight times.  
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Global Economic Insights: RBA Rate Decision and China Trade Trends

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 04.12.2023 13:33
RBA rate decision – 05/12 – back in November the RBA took the decision diverge from its peers and hike rates again, by 25bps to 4.35%, after 5 months of keeping it at 4.10%. In a sign that this could well be the last hike the guidance was tweaked from "further monetary tightening may be required" to "whether monetary tightening may be required" which at the time sent the Australian dollar sharply lower, although the recent weakness in the US dollar has seen the Aussie recover since then. Despite increasing evidence that inflation is slowing in the global economy the RBA clearly felt it necessary to close the gap on its peers when it comes to rate policy, in a sign that perhaps they are concerned about domestic price pressures. That said we are already seeing the economic numbers in China starting to respond to the piecemeal measures by authorities there to stimulate the economy, although the improvements have been fairly modest. We also saw another upside surprise in headline CPI, while Q2 GDP came in at 0.4%, above forecasts of 0.2% to the economy continues to remain resilient. No changes to policy are expected this week, however some ex-RBA staffers have suggested that we could see another rate hike if wages growth continues to remain strong.   China Trade (Nov) – 07/12 – the recent set of Chinese Q3 GDP numbers pointed to a modest pickup in economic activity over the quarter in a sign that we are starting to see an improvement in the underlying numbers underpinning the Chinese economy. The recent October trade numbers helped to support the idea of a modest improvement however they don't change the fact that the economy still has some way to go when it comes to domestic demand which has remained subdued over the last 6 months. In October Chinese import data broke a run of 10 consecutive negative months by rising 3% in a sign that perhaps domestic demand is returning, beating forecasts of a 5% decline. Slightly more worrying was a bigger than expected decline in exports which fell -6.4%, the 6th month in a row they've been lower, and a worrying portend that global demand remains weak, and unlikely to pick up soon.       
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Spot Gold Hits All-Time High in Thin Liquidity: Geopolitical Factors and Global Recession Risks Examined

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 04.12.2023 14:48
Today’s early Asian session’s swift rally to a fresh all-time high is likely to be driven by a thin liquidity trading environment rather than the Israel-Hamas geopolitical war risk premium. Spot Gold’s portfolio hedging role may gain traction as global recession risk resurfaces. Medium-term uptrend phase remains intact but may shape a minor pull-back below US$2,152 key short-term pivotal resistance with immediate supports at US$2,032/2,018. This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Gold Technical: Potential multi-week bullish movement kickstarts” published on 21 November 2023. Click here for a recap.” The price actions of Spot Gold (XAU/USD) have continued to push higher since our last analysis where it clear above the short-term resistance zone of US$2,028/2,037and rallied to retest its current all-time high level of US$2,075 (printed in August 2020) on last Friday, 1 December 2023. In today’s (4 December) early Asian session before the opening of Tokyo trading hours, Spot Gold spurted upwards to hit a fresh intraday all-high of around US$2,148 before it almost gave up all its gains to trade at US$2,083 at this time of the writing. Despite an uplift in geopolitical tensions in the Middle Eastern region after Israel resumed its offensive operations against Hamas in Gaza over the weekend, the geopolitical war risk premium is not being priced in the current price actions of oil where WTI crude remained soft ex-post OPEC+ meeting and it traded lower in today’s Asian session with an intraday loss of -1.10%. Hence today’s intraday swift rally that lasted for around thirty minutes towards a fresh all-time high is likely to be driven by a thin liquidity environment at the start of the week rather than fundamental catalysts.   Potential global recession scenario is supporting a medium-term uptrend     Fig 1: US 10-year Treasury real yield medium-term trend with breakeven inflation as of 4 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)     Fig 2: S&P 500 – Spot Gold ratio as of 4 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) The next golden question will be is the current medium-term uptrend for Spot Gold sustainable after a rally of +18% from its 6 October 2023 low, and a third major retest on the US$2,075 high printed on 7 August 2020? Using an intermarket analysis approach (see Fig 1 & 2), the medium-term uptrend phase low of 6 October 2023 seen in Spot Gold has coincided closely with the recent softness of the US 10-year Treasury real yield as it has declined by 47 basis points from 2.47% printed on 6 October 2023. Also, the US 10-year breakeven rate (market-based implied US inflation rate 10 years from today) is looking vulnerable for a bearish breakdown below 2.10% suggesting that the US 10-year Treasury real yield still has room for further potential downside that in turn lowers the opportunity costs of holding gold. Secondly, the long-term monthly ratio chart of the US S&P 500 against Spot Gold has continued to exhibit potential S&P 500 underperformance against Spot Gold as it has remained below a former major ascending support from August 2011 low with bearish momentum reading seen in the monthly RSI indicator of the S&P 500 – Spot Gold ratio; a sign of a potential imminent US recession.  
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Analyzing EURCAD: Inflation Rates, Technicals, and Sentiment Indicators

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 04.12.2023 14:51
This article goes over different tools and indicators covering EURCAD, in some cases, cross-pairs can provide trade setups of a different nature as the US Dollar is partially taken out of the equation. Trading in financial markets requires an overview of different types of tools and the same applies to forex trading. Talking points Inflation Rate Overview – European Union and Canada Daily Chart Technical analysis Sentiment Indicators: Commitment of Traders report, and OANDA’s order book. Relative Rotation Graph Inflation Rate Overview – European Union and Canada   Source: Bloomberg Terminal   Inflation Rates globally are declining faster than expected and as global Central banks continue to tread carefully, traders continue to speculate on Central banks’ moves and are sometimes overwhelmed by conflicting central bankers’ comments or analyst’s opinions. Many Market participants are convinced that the recent decline in inflation suggests that Central banks should consider rate cuts, but Central banks still have concerns about inflation returning in any form. The latest CPI report from the EU shows inflation continues to decline reaching 2.4%, close to The European Central Bank (ECB) target of 2%. The current CPI may suggest that the ECB can hold interest rates at its current level but doesn’t warrant any rate cuts. ECB Nagel commented this morning that “Inflation risks are skewed to the upside”. The next CPI release is scheduled for December 19th, 2023, please check the economic calendar and your local time. In Canada, it’s a slightly different story, although the inflation rate is also declining the same as it is globally, it is declining at a slower pace than the EU. The inflation rate currently stands at 3.1%, down from its highs of 8.0% seen in June 2022. Daily Chart Technical analysis   Source: Tradingview.com   EURCAD price broke and closed below an intermediate trendline identified on the above daily timeframe chart, with no pullback to retest the broken level so far. The broken level was also a confluence of Support represented by 3 commonly used Moving average periods, EMA9, MA,9, MA21, and the monthly pivot point at 1.4800 Applying the weekly Stochastic indicator onto the Daily timeframe to smooth the readings suggests that EURCAD may be overbought and shows that %K just crossed below %D along with the break below the intermediate trendline mentioned above. Applying Daily RSI with its default period of 14 shows that RSI is so far in line with price action, however, it is currently neutral near level 50. MACD line crossed below its signal line and the Histogram is also turning bearish.       Sentiment Indicators: Commitment of Traders report, and OANDA’s order book Source: Tradingview.com   The Commitment of Traders report offers insights about positioning changes in the futures market, although delayed, it still helps as a sentiment tool in a trader’s arsenal. Comparing Position levels on the latest COT report shows that Large Speculators on both currencies are favoring long positions, however, it also suggests that the Canadian Dollar is closer to its extreme than the Euro, thus a higher probability of Sentiment change. The above chart is for EURUSD and USDCAD side by side with the COT report applied to both. (COT for Canadian Dollar is inverted, CADUSD) OANDA’s Orderbook Indicator   Source: OANDA.com   Another sentiment tool is the OANDA Orderbook Indicator, the above image reflects an aggregate view of pending entry orders on EURCAD for OANDA’s clients, the data falls under the Retail Traders category. The above image suggests that Retail traders are looking to buy as the price falls and sell as it rises, this is the typical retail trader sentiment and needs to be thought of carefully as Retail Traders can sometimes be in the opposite direction in trendy markets. The order book also reflects price levels that have the highest number of pending orders, these levels can be critical as the price continues to move regardless of direction. It is also important to note that the order book percentages include exit orders such as Stops and limits, we can continue to follow up on position percentage changes. Relative Rotation Graph   Source: Optuma.com   The Relative Rotation graph RRG (A measurement for Momentum and Relative strength) on the daily time frame shows EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD are currently in the Leading Quadrant, with EURUSD leading the pack and CADUSD attempting to catch up from the Improving quadrant. The arrow direction for all pairs except CAD is so far pointing south towards the weakening quadrant.  
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Eurozone Inflation Drops to 2.4%, ECB Faces Divergence with Market Expectations

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 04.12.2023 15:04
Eurozone inflation falls to 2.4% US ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to improve to 47.6 Fed Chair Powell will deliver remarks in Atlanta The euro is showing limited movement on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0897, up 0.09%. Eurozone inflation falls more than expected Eurozone inflation has been falling and the November report brought good tidings. Headline inflation ease to 2.4% y/y, down from 2.9% in October and below the market consensus of 2.7%. A sharp drop in energy prices was a key driver in the significant decline. Core inflation, which is running higher than the headline figure, dropped to 3.6%, down from  4.2% in October and below the market consensus of 3.9%. The soft inflation report sent EUR/USD lower by 0.74% on Thursday, but ECB policy makers are no doubt pleased by the release, as it indicates that the central bank’s aggressive tightening continues to curb inflation. Headline CPI has dropped to its lowest level since July 2021 and is closing in on the 2% inflation target. Still, core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is a better gauge of inflation trends, will need to come down significantly before the ECB can claim that the battle against inflation is over. The ECB has signalled a ‘higher-for-longer policy’, and hasn’t given any indications that it plans to cut rates anytime soon. This has resulted in a significant disconnect with the financial markets, as traders believe that the ECB will have to respond to falling inflation and weak growth by trimming rates. The markets have brought forward expectations of a rate cut to April due to the soft inflation report. Just one month ago, the markets had priced in an initial rate cut in July. It will be interesting to see if ECB President Lagarde clings to the higher-for-longer stance or will she acknowledge the possibility of rate cuts in 2024. The US wraps up the week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector has been in a prolonged slump and the PMI has indicated contraction for twelve consecutive months. The PMI is expected to improve to 47.6 in November, compared to 46.7 in October. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.   Investors will be listening closely to Jerome Powell’s remarks today, looking for hints about upcoming rate decisions. Powell has stuck to his script of a ‘higher for longer’ rate policy, but the markets have priced in a rate cut in May at 84%. . EUR/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.0920 and 1.0986 1.0873 and 1.0807 are the next support levels
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Taming Rate Cut Expectations: Bank of England's Stance and Market Dynamics in 2024

ING Economics ING Economics 12.12.2023 13:41
Bank of England to push back against rising tide of rate cut expectations Markets are pricing three rate cuts in 2024 and we doubt the Bank will be too happy about that. Expect policymakers to reiterate that rates need to stay restrictive for some time. But with services inflation coming down and wage growth set to follow suit, we think investors are right to be thinking about a summer rate cut. We expect 100bp of cuts next year.   Markets are ramping up rate cut bets, and Governor Bailey isn't happy about it Financial markets are rapidly throwing in the towel on the “higher for longer” narrative that central banks have been pushing hard upon for months. Even more remarkably, a small but growing number of policymakers from the Federal Reserve to the European Central Bank seem to be getting second thoughts too. So far, that market repricing has been less aggressive for the Bank of England. Investors are expecting three rate cuts next year compared to more than five over at the ECB. The first move is seen in June, as opposed to March over in Frankfurt. Despite that more modest adjustment, the Bank of England is starting to sound the alarm. Governor Andrew Bailey said in recent days that he is pushing back “against assumptions that we're talking about cutting interest rates". Those comments followed a firming up of the Bank’s forward guidance back in early November, where it said it expected rates to stay restrictive for “an extended period”. Its November forecasts, premised on rate cut expectations at the time, indicated that inflation may still be a touch above 2% in two years’ time. That was a hint, if only a mild one, that markets were prematurely pricing easing - and rate cut bets have only been ramped up since.   Rate cut expectations are building, though less rapidly than in the US/eurozone   Expect rate cut pushback on Thursday, but investors are right to be thinking about easing That gives us a flavour of what we should expect next week. While the chances of a surprise rate hike have long since faded away, there’s a good chance that the three hawks on the committee once again vote for another 25bp rate increase, leaving us with a repeat 6-3 vote in favour of no change. We only get a statement and minutes on Thursday, and no press conference or forecasts, so the opportunity to shift the messaging is fairly limited. But we expect the same hawkish forward guidance as last time, including the line on keeping rates restrictive for a prolonged period of time. Could the Bank be tempted to go further still and formally say that markets have got it wrong? The BoE has shown itself less willing than some other central banks to either comment directly on market pricing in its post-meeting statements, or make predictions about how it'll vote at future meetings. The last time it did this was in November 2022, where disfunction in UK markets meant rate hike pricing had reached an extreme level. We doubt they’ll do something similar this month. Policymakers may be uneasy about the recent repricing of UK rate expectations, but central banks globally have learned the hard way over the last couple of years that trying to predict and commit to future policy, with relative certainty, is a fool's game. The Bank will also be gratified that the data is at least starting to go in the right direction. Services inflation came in below the Bank’s most recent forecast, and while one month doesn’t make a trend, we think there are good reasons to expect further declines over 2024. Admittedly, we think services CPI will stay sticky in the 6% area through the early stages of next year, but by the summer, we expect to have slipped to 4% or below. Likewise, the jobs market is clearly cooling and that suggests the days of private-sector wage growth at 8% are behind us. We expect this to get back to the 4-4.5% area by next summer too. Markets may be right to assume that the BoE will be a little later to fire the starting gun on rate cuts than its European neighbours. But when the rate cuts start, we think the BoE’s easing cycle will ultimately prove more aggressive. We expect 100bp of rate cuts from August next year, and another 100bp in 2025.   Sterling benefits from the BoE position Sterling has enjoyed November. The Bank of England's trade-weighted exchange rate is about 2% higher. The rally probably has less to do with the UK government's stimulus and more to do with the fact that investors have been falling over themselves to price lower interest both in the US and particularly in the eurozone.  In terms of the risk to sterling market interest rates and the currency from the December BoE meeting, we tend to think it is too early for the Bank of England to condone easing expectations - even though those expectations are substantially more modest than those on the eurozone. This could mean that EUR/GBP continues to trade on the weak side into year-end - probably in the 0.8500-0.8600 range. Into 2024, however, we expect market pricing to correct - less to be priced for the ECB, more for the UK and EUR/GBP should head back up to the 0.88 area. But that's a story for next year.    Sterling trade-weighted index edges higher
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Federal Reserve Outlook: Navigating Monetary Policy in the Face of Market Expectations and Economic Signals

ING Economics ING Economics 12.12.2023 14:11
We expect another Fed hold, but with pushback on rate cut prospects The Fed last raised rates in July and we think that marked the peak. There is growing evidence that tight monetary policy and restrictive credit conditions are having the desired effect on depressing inflation. However, the Fed will not want to endorse the market pricing of significant rate cuts until they are confident price pressures are quashed   Fed to leave rates unchanged, oppose market pricing of cuts The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave the fed funds target range at 5.25-5.5% at next week’s FOMC meeting. Softer activity numbers, cooling labour data and benign MoM% inflation prints signal that monetary policy is probably restrictive enough to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% in coming months, a narrative that is being more vocally supported by key Federal Reserve officials. The bigger story is likely to be contained in the individual Fed member forecasts – how far will they look to back the market perceptions that major rate cuts are on their way? We strongly suspect there will be a lot of pushback here.   Markets pricing 125bp of cuts, the Fed will likely stick to 50bp prediction There has been a big swing in expectations for Federal Reserve policy since the last FOMC meeting, with markets firmly buying into the possibility of some aggressive interest rate cuts next year. Back on November 1st, after the Fed held rates steady for the second consecutive meeting, fed funds futures priced around a 20% chance of a final hike by the December FOMC meeting with nearly 90bp of rate cuts expected through 2024. Today, markets are clearly of the view that interest rates have peaked with 125bp of rate cuts priced through next year. Underscoring this shift in sentiment, we have seen the US 10Y Treasury yield fall from just shy of 5% in late October to a low of 4.1% on December 6th.   Federal Reserve rhetoric has certainly helped the momentum of the moves. Chief amongst them is the quote from Fed Governor Chris Waller suggesting that if inflation continues to cool “for several more months – I don’t know how long that might be – three months, four months, five months – that we feel confident that inflation is really down and on its way, you could then start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower”. The real Fed funds rate (nominal rate less inflation) is indeed now positive and we expect it to move above 3% as inflation continues to fall. Does it need to be this high to ensure inflation stays at 2%? We would argue not, and so too, it appears, do some senior members of the Fed. Other officials, such as Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, suggest that the US hasn’t “seen the full effects of restrictive policy”. However, there are still some residual hawks. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is still contemplating “whether we have enough tightening in the system”.   ING's expectations for what the Federal Reserve will predict   Fed to talk up prolonged restirctive stance In that regard, the steep fall in Treasury yields in recent weeks is an easing of financial conditions on the economy and there is going to be some concern that this effectively unwinds some of the Fed rate hikes from earlier in the year. For example, mortgage rates have been swift to respond, with the 30Y fixed-rate mortgage dropping from a high of 7.90% in late October to 7.17% as of last week. With inflation still well above the 2% target despite recent encouraging MoM prints, we expect the Fed to be wary of anything that could be interpreted as offering an excuse to price in even deeper Fed rate cuts for next year and result in even lower longer-dated Treasury yields.   Consequently, we expect the Fed to retain a relatively upbeat economic assessment with the same 50bp of rate cuts in 2024 they signalled in their September forecasts, albeit from a lower level given the final 25bp December hike they forecasted last time is not going to happen.Fed Chair Jay Powell’s assessment in a December 1st speech is likely to be the template for the tone of the press conference. There, he argued, “it would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so”. Similarly, NY Fed president John Williams expects “it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some time”.   But the Fed will eventually turn dovish We think the Fed will eventually shift to a more dovish stance, but this may not come until late in the first quarter of 2024. The US economy continues to perform well for now and the jobs market remains tight, but there is growing evidence that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases and the associated tightening of credit conditions are starting to have the desired effect. The consumer is key, and with real household disposable incomes flatlining, credit demand falling, and pandemic-era accrued savings being exhausted for many, we see a risk of a recession during 2024. Collapsing housing transactions and plunging homebuilder sentiment suggest residential investment will weaken, while softer durable goods orders point to a downturn in capital expenditure. If low gasoline prices are maintained, inflation could be at the 2% target in the second quarter of next year, which could open the door to lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve from May onwards – especially if hiring slows as we expect. We look for 150bp of rate cuts in 2024, with a further 100bp in early 2025.   The Fed will try to keep the market rates impact to a minimum There may be some interest from the press on money market conditions following the spikes seen in repo around the end of the month and reverberating into the early part of December. It comes against a backdrop where banks' reserves are ample, in the US$3.3tr area. The last time the Fed engaged in quantitative tightening, bank reserves bottomed at a little under US$1.5tr and there was a material effect felt on the money markets. It’s unlikely that we'll get anywhere near that this time around. Bank reserves will certainly get below US$3tr and possibly down to US$2.5trn. The Fed will want to get liquidity into better balance as a first port of call, but beyond that, it won’t want to over-tighten liquidity conditions. Taking this into account, QT likely ends around the end of 2024. In the meantime, the clearest manifestation of quantitative tightening is to be seen in falling liquidity volumes going back to the Fed on the overnight reverse repo facility. This is now at US$825bn but will hit zero in the second half of 2024. Whether Chair Powell gets drawn into this will likely be down to whether the press wants him - they'll need to ask the question(s)! In terms of expectations for market movements, we doubt there will be much. If, as we expect, the Fed sticks to the hawkish tilt and does not give the market too much to get excited about, then expect minimal impact. As it is, the structure of the curve, as telegraphed by the richness of the 5yr on the curve, is telling us that a rate cut is not yet in the 6-month countdown window. That will slowly change, and we’ll morph towards a point where we are three months out from a cut and the 2yr yield really collapses lower. It's unlikely the Fed will change that at this final meeting of 2023, though, and they won’t want to.   Fed pushback could dent recent high-yield FX rally As mentioned above, a Fed pushback against market pricing of the easing cycle in 2024 should be mildly supportive of the dollar. Even though EUR/USD has performed poorly through the start of December and could get some mild support a day later from the ECB, this FOMC meeting could prompt losses to the 1.0650 area. We have had 1.07 as a year-end target for a few months now and expect the more powerful, dollar-led, EUR/USD rally to come through in 2Q when we expect those short-dated US yields to collapse. Perhaps more vulnerable to a decent Fed pushback against lower rates might be what we call the 'growth' currencies, such as the high beta currencies in Scandinavia and the commodity sector (Australian and Canadian dollars). These currencies have had a good run through November on the lower US rate environment. However, as per our 2024 FX Outlook, these currencies are our top picks for next year and should meet good demand on pullbacks this month. As to the wild ride that is USD/JPY, higher US yields could provide some temporary support. However, we doubt USD/JPY will sustain gains above the 146/147 area as traders re-adjust positions for a potential change in Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy on December 19th. We suspect that USD/JPY has peaked, however, and are happy with our call for USD/JPY to be trading close to 135 next summer after the BoJ starts to dismantle its ultra-dovish policy in the first half of next year. 
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Bank of England Pushes Back Against Rate Cut Expectations Amidst Market Repricing

ING Economics ING Economics 12.12.2023 14:22
UK: Bank of England to offer push back against rising tide of rate cut expectations Financial markets are rapidly throwing in the towel on the “higher for longer” narrative that central banks have been pushing hard upon for months. Admittedly so far, that market repricing has been less aggressive for the Bank of England. But with three rate cuts now priced for 2024, the Bank of England is starting to sound the alarm. Governor Andrew Bailey said in recent days that he is pushing back “against assumptions that we're talking about cutting interest rates". Those comments followed a firming up of the Bank’s forward guidance back in November, where it said it expected rates to stay restrictive for “an extended period”. Expect that narrative to be reiterated on Thursday. A 6-3 vote in favour of no change in rates is our base case, and that matches the vote split from November. Could the Bank go further still and formally say that markets are overpricing 2024 easing in the statement? It hasn’t commented in this way since November 2022, in what was then a stressed market environment. We doubt they’ll do something similar this month. Policymakers may be uneasy about the recent repricing of UK rate expectations, but central banks globally have learned the hard way over the last couple of years that trying to predict and commit to future policy, with relative certainty, is a fool's game. The Bank will also be gratified that the data is at least starting to go in the right direction. Services inflation came in below the Bank’s most recent forecast. Markets may be right to assume that the BoE will be a little later to fire the starting gun on rate cuts than its European neighbours. But when the rate cuts start, we think the BoE’s easing cycle will ultimately prove more aggressive. We expect 100bp of rate cuts from August next year, and another 100bp in 2025.
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Turbulent Markets: Central Banks Grapple with Inflation as China Enters Deflation

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 12.12.2023 14:28
Big week for central banks as China falls into deflation By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)   Markets in Europe finished higher again last week with the DAX up for the 6th week in a row, while the FTSE100 returned to levels last seen on the 19th October, after the latest US jobs report came in better than expected, and unemployment unexpectedly fell to 3.7%.   US markets also finished the week strongly with the S&P500 pushing above its summer highs to close at its highest level this year, with the Nasdaq 100 not too far behind, with the tech sector, once again instrumental in achieving the bulk of this year's outperformance.   The catalyst for the strong finish was a solid US jobs report which showed 199k jobs were added in November, while the unemployment rate slipped to 3.7%. With the participation rate returning to 62.8% and wages remaining at 4%, the idea that the Federal Reserve will be compelled to cut rates aggressively underwent a bit of a setback with yields moving sharply higher, as 2024 rate cut expectations got pared back.   The apparent resilience of the US economy against a backdrop of a sharp fall in inflation expectations from the latest University of Michigan confidence survey has helped craft a narrative that despite the sharp rise in interest rates delivered over the past 18 months, the US economy will be able to avoid a severe recession.   This scenario does present some problems for the Federal Reserve when it comes to managing market expectations of when rate cuts are likely to come, with the recent sharp fall in yields globally speaking to a widespread expectation that rates may well be cut sharply as we head into 2024.   As far as the US economy is concerned aggressive rate cuts at this stage look a little less likely than they do elsewhere where we've seen sharp CPI slowdowns in the pace of inflationary pressure. Earlier this month the latest EU inflation numbers showed headline CPI slow to 2.4% in November, while German CPI was confirmed at 2.3% as month-on-month prices declined by 0.7%, the second month in a row, CPI went negative.   Germany isn't unique in this either given that PPI inflation had already given plenty of indication of the direction of travel when it came to price deflation.   In China over the weekend headline CPI also went negative in November, only in this case it was on the annualised number to the tune of -0.5%, for the second month in a row and for the 3rd month in the last 5. PPI inflation also remained in negative territory to the tune of -3%, the 14th month in succession as the world's 2nd biggest economy grapples with deflation, and slowing domestic demand.   This deflationary impulse appears to be already making itself felt in Europe, and truth be told has been doing so for some time, the only surprise being how blind to it certain parts of the European Central Bank have been to it.   These concerns over deflation while slowly starting to be acknowledged don't appear to be being taken seriously at the moment, although in a welcome shift we did hear Germany ECB governing council member Isabel Schabel admit that they had been surprised at how quickly prices had slowed over the past few months, even as economic activity stumbled sharply.     Consequently, this week's central bank meetings of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England are likely to be crucial in managing expectations when it comes to the timing and pace of when markets can expect to see rate cuts begin now, we know the peak is in.   Of all the central banks the Fed probably has the easiest job in that they have more time to assess how the US economy is reacting to the tightening seen over the past few months.   The ECB has no such luxury given that the two biggest economies of Germany and France could well be in recession already, and where prices could slide further as we head into 2024.   The fear for central banks is that a lot of the slowdown in inflation has been driven by the recent slumps in crude oil and natural gas prices and could well be transitory in nature, and with wage inflation still elevated will be reluctant to signal the "all clear" too soon.   The Bank of England has a similar problem although the UK economy isn't showing the same levels of weakness as those of France and Germany, and furthermore inflation in the UK is almost double that of Europe, with wage costs and services inflation even higher.   As we look towards a new trading week, and probably the most consequential one this month, European markets look set to open slightly higher as investors look back at the inflation numbers from the weekend and extrapolate that 2024 may well be the year that rates start to come down, with the main risk being in overestimating by how far they fall.      EUR/USD – slid down towards the 200-day SMA on Friday, stopping just short at 1.0724, with a break below 1.0700 targeting the prospect of further losses toward the November lows at 1.0520. We need to see a move back through 1.0830 to stabilise.   GBP/USD – slid to the 1.2500 area but remains above the 200-day SMA for now, with only a break below 1.2460 signalling a broader test of the 1.2350 area. Resistance currently at 1.2620 area.    EUR/GBP – still range trading between the 0.8590 area and the lows last week at 0.8550. While below the 0.8615/20 area the risk remains for a move towards the September lows at 0.8520, and potentially further towards the August lows at 0.8490. USD/JPY – finding a level of support at the 200-day SMA at 142.50 after last week's steep fall. We need to see a daily close below the 200-day SMA to open a test of 140.00 and then on towards 135.00. Resistance back at 146.20.   FTSE100 is expected to open 7 points higher at 7,561   DAX is expected to open 25 points higher at 16,784   CAC40 is expected to open 11 points higher at 7,537
The December CPI Upside Surprise: Why Markets Remain Skeptical About a Fed Rate Cut in March"   User napisz liste keywords, oddzile je porzecinakmie ChatGPT

UK Wage Growth and US CPI: Insights for Central Banks' Rate Policies

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 12.12.2023 14:35
UK wage growth and US CPI set to slow   By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)   European equity markets got off to a slow start to the week yesterday, closing modestly higher with the FTSE100 underperforming due to concerns over weak demand out of China.   US markets were also resilient with the S&P500 and Dow both eking out new highs for 2023, as investors looked cautiously towards this week's central bank meetings of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, and their respective outlooks for rate policy heading into 2024.     Asia markets have continued in the positive vein of yesterday with that momentum set to continue into today's European open.   With the Federal Reserve due to start its 2-day meeting later today, and the Bank of England set to decide on rates on Thursday, today's UK wages data and US CPI numbers could go some way to shaping how policymakers react when they deliver their guidance on monetary policy later this week.     We start with the latest UK wages numbers for the 3-months to October and where wages have been trending higher by more than 8% for the last 3-months if bonuses are included.   Some at the Bank of England have been fretting about this high level of wages growth but they really shouldn't be given how badly inflation has impacted the pay packets of consumers these past 2 hours.   All that is happening now is that some of the purchasing power that has been lost over the last few months is slowly being clawed back and for the most part will take years to recover back to pre-pandemic levels. The central bank needs to be careful about overreacting to a phenomenon that they were too slow in reacting to on the way in.     With food prices only just recently dropping below 10% for the first time in over a year it can hardly be a wage price spiral if consumers are finally seeing the price/wage ratio finally starting to turn positive in their favour. Expectations are for wages ex-bonuses to slow from 7.7% to 7.4%, which might not be enough to reverse the calls for further rate hikes from the 3 hawks on the MPC, of Mann, Haskel and Greene. Later this afternoon we'll get to see whether the slowdown we saw in US CPI during October has continued into November.   US inflation fell to 3.2% in October, down from 3.7% reversing a trend that had seen inflation fall to 3% in June, before gaining ground in subsequent months.   Core CPI on the other hand has been steadier, slowing at a more modest pace and coming in at 4%. More importantly, super core inflation which the Fed monitors closely also slowed, and with the risk of a US government shutdown postponed until January next year, the economic risks to the US economy appear to have diminished further.   There has been some concern that the resilience of the US economy may delay the return to the 2% target, however judging by the latest PPI data there is little sign of inflationary pressure in respect of company's costs. These also slowed sharply in October declining -0.5%, dragging final demand down from 2.2% to 1.3%, in a sign that we could see further downside in US CPI, with the potential to slip below 3% before the end of the year.     Headline CPI for November is forecast to slow to 3.1%, with core prices remaining steady at 4%.       EUR/USD – holding above the 200-day SMA for now, stopping short last week at 1.0724, with a break below 1.0700 targeting the prospect of further losses toward the November lows at 1.0520. We need to see a move back through 1.0830 to stabilise. GBP/USD – tight range but holding above the 200-day SMA for now, with only a break below 1.2460 signalling a broader test of the 1.2350 area. Resistance currently at 1.2620 area.  EUR/GBP – still range trading between the 0.8590 area and the lows at 0.8545/50. While below the 0.8615/20 area the risk remains for a move towards the September lows at 0.8520, and potentially further towards the August lows at 0.8490. USD/JPY – after last week's test of the 200-day SMA at 142.50 we've seen a solid rebound with the move above 146.20 arguing for a move back towards 148.20. FTSE100 is expected to open 13 points higher at 7,558 DAX is expected to open 51 points higher at 16,845 CAC40 is expected to open 18 points higher at 7,569
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The Day of Anticipation: BoJ's Hint at Exiting Negative Rates Sparks Market Reaction

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 12.12.2023 14:50
The day has come By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   Yesterday was finally the day that most FX traders have been waiting for since at least a year: the day where the Bank of Japan (BoJ) gave a hint that it will finally exit its negative interest rate policy. Precisely, the BoJ Governor said, after his meeting with the Japanese PM - that handling of monetary policy would get tougher from the end of the year. Indeed, the BoJ is buying a spectacular quantity of JGBs to keep the YCC intact at absurdly low levels compared with where the rest of the developed markets yields are following an almost 2-year long of aggressive monetary policy tightening campaign. At its highest this year – after the BoJ relaxed the rules on its YCC policy – the 10-year JGB flirted with the 1% mark, whereas the 10-year yield German bund yield hit 3%, the 10-year British gilt yield advanced to 4.70% and the US 10-year yield hit 5%. Certainly, inflation in Japan lagged significantly behind inflation in Western peers, yet inflation in the US is now exactly where inflation in Japan is: near 3%.   The BoJ's negative rate is the last souvenir of the zero/negative rate era and any small hint that things will get moving over there could move oceans. And this is what happened yesterday. The speculation that the BoJ will hike rates as soon as this month spiked to 45% soon after Mr. Ueda's words reached investors ears. The 10-year JGB yield spiked to 0.80% from around 0.62% reached earlier this week in parallel with the falling DM yields. The USDJPY fell from 147 to 141 in a single move, and the pair is consolidating gains a touch below 144 this morning, as traders argue whether a December normalization is too soon or not. Fundamentally it is not: in all cases, the BoJ will start normalizing policy two years after the Bank of England (BoE) hiked its rate for the first time after a long period. And the BoJ will be normalizing its rates when all major central banks plateau their tightening policy and when investors are out guessing when the normalization – toward the other direction – will begin. So no, fundamentally, it is not too early for the BoJ to start hiking its policy rate. But it would be a sudden move – that's for sure!   The Day of Anticipation: BoJ's Hint at Exiting Negative Rates Sparks Market Reaction"In any case, it is more likely than not that the fortunes of the Japanese yen turned for good this week. In the short run, consolidation is the immediate answer to yesterday's kneejerk rally – which took the USDJPY immediately into the oversold market conditions as the move was also amplified with many traders covering their short positions. But from here, yen traders will be looking to sell the tops rather than to buy to dips. A sustainable move below 142.60 – the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on this year's bullish trend – will confirm a return to the bearish consolidation zone, then the pair will likely take out the next major technical supports: the 200-DMA near 142.30, the next psychological support at 140 and should gently head back to – at least around 127 – where it started the year. But these forecasts will hold only, and if only, the BoJ doesn't make a sudden U-turn on its normalization plans. Remember, the BoJ didn't say it would normalize. It just said that it will be hard to handle the actual policy for longer. If one were to imagine, Governor Ueda maybe spent last night looking at the ceiling and wondering 'what have I said!'. Funny thing is, the BoJ's rate normalization speculation comes a few hours before the country revealed a 2% fall in its GDP; obviously, the global policy tightening has been hard on the world economy, and Japan can't avoid the global slowdown winds. If it turns out, Japan might normalize its monetary policy when its economy begins to slow down.    
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Optimal Debt Mix: Lessons from Global Markets

ING Economics ING Economics 14.12.2023 14:28
How much floating rate debt should you have? We see the US as the key reference for identifying the optimal mix between fixed and floating rates. But other markets are worth looking at, as they throw up differing circumstances. The eurozone and Australia have an extreme horse-shoe efficient frontier. The UK has a linear trade-off between risk and cost, while Japan's is inversed. Recently, we published a short report that sought an optimal fixed versus float rate mix for a liability portfolio. We identified 17.5% as an optimal proportion of floating rate debt, one that managed to minimise volatility and achieve a 30bp reduction in interest rate costs relative to being 100% fixed. We also showed how further rate cost reductions could be considered by adding more floating exposure while not moving too far from the bottom of the hook of the efficient frontier. Efficient Frontier between rate cost and volatility for the US Employs data back to 1988 and contrasts 3mth versus 10yr SOFR (spliced to Libor) Note: This is based on not timing the market and comparing a rolling 3-month exposure to a rolling 10yr one. In reality, the 10yr exposure would be more mark-to-market in effect. As the global benchmark, we believe that US circumstances best represent the interest rate versus volatility trade-off over the long term. The Federal Reserve sets the global risk-free rate, and the US rates market has a dominating influence on other markets. That being said, what about those other markets? We’ve made some selections, and they all have their own stories. We find some quite stark differences but also find differing circumstances. The eurozone efficient frontier has an extreme horseshoe profile, as does Australia In the eurozone, some unusual circumstances occur. Being 100% fixed has come with both the highest funding costs and the highest volatility. The lower volatility for floating rate debt is unusual. It can be rationalised by the stability brought to the front end from extreme ECB policy and a pre-pandemic lost hope that the ECB would ever move away from the anchor of near-zero rates. Hence, being 100% floating resulted in the lowest average funding costs and lower volatility compared with being 100% fixed. But diversification benefits are also clear from the efficient frontier, where a combination of 60% floating and 40% fixed resulted in the lowest volatility. At the inflection point, there is a 75bp reduction in funding costs relative to being 100% fixed (2.8%), and funding costs are only 40bp higher compared with 100% floating (1.6%).     Efficient Frontier between rate cost and volatility for the eurozone and Australia     Australia is an interesting one. Its efficient frontier has a similar profile to that of the eurozone, but without the extended zero interest rate policy that helps to explain the unusual look. The overall averages for Australia are higher versus the eurozone (both the average rate cost and volatility). Gleaning from the efficient frontier, we find that something close to a 50:50 fixed versus floating rate mix has acted to minimise volatility. By doing so, there is a 50bp reduction in interest rate costs relative to being 100% fixed (5.2%). And at that inflection point, the interest rate cost is 70bp higher than being 100% floating (3.95%). There is value to diversification.   No efficiency on the UK frontier, just a straight trade-off. In Japan, it's even inversed Now, we move to two contrasting and unusual outcomes for differing reasons. First Japan. We see here an extreme example of the control that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has had on keeping front-end rates on the floor (or through it) for an extended period of time. Funding costs from being 100% floating are exceptionally low. And that has come with minimal volatility. So, being 100% fixed has been higher in both funding costs and volatility. At the same time, the level of funding costs and volatility are lower than being 100% floating or fixed versus any other centre. We also find that while there is a clear but perverse trade-off between interest rate cost and volatility, in the sense that fixed-rate debt and higher funding costs come with higher volatility. The efficient frontier is practically a line slanted the “wrong” way and identifying no efficiencies; it’s just a straight-line frontier. Factor past BoJ policy as the chief influencer here.   Efficient Frontier between rate cost and volatility for the Japan and the UK Employs GBP swap data back to 1993, AUD bank data back to 1996 and contrasts 3-month versus 10yr     Then we move to UK circumstances. Here, we also find a straight-line frontier. It almost looks stereotypical in the sense that fixed-rate funding is more expensive and higher in volatility versus floating. However, the frontier fails to “hook” at the high rate / low volatility area and thus fails to identify an efficient inflection point. So, we don’t get to a lower volatility outcome through diversification. We can force an inflection through the choice of data periods, but we prefer to present the full dataset and observe the results. Here, there is a trade-off between floating and fixed-rate debt, but no answer as to how much is in each bucket.   If in doubt, use the US efficient frontier as the 'go to' reference So, where does this leave us? While the centres identified have interesting and contrasting outcomes, we view these as mostly a function of unique circumstances. It is certainly the case for Japan, and likely for the eurozone too. It is possible they get repeated and thus reflect the future. But it is more probable, in our opinion, that the US outcome will prove a more valid reference when making choices on the fixed versus floating choice set going forward. The UK efficient frontier is closest to the US one but misses the key hook that identifies the benefits of diversification. We'd override that by imposing the US frontier outcome on UK liability portfolios. Australia is a bit of an enigma, though. Of the markets considered, it has the greatest chance of deviating from the US-styled outcome that we favour as the central reference. But if in doubt, follow the US efficient frontier outcomes when planning for the future.  
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Turbulent Times for Currencies: Bank of England's Pause and Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Projections

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 14.12.2023 14:40
Bank of England expected to pause Federal Reserve projects three rate cuts in 2024 The British pound continues to move higher on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2648, up 0.24%. The US dollar took a tumble on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve gave the nod to rate cuts in 2024. This helped the pound recover after losing ground in the aftermath of a soft UK GDP report on Wednesday. Bank of England expected to stand pat The Federal Reserve created quite a buzz in the financial markets on Wednesday after the Fed signalled that it expected to trim rates in 2024. Will Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey provide an encore at today’s meeting? The BoE is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 5.25% for a third straight time. There is little doubt that the BoE’s aggressive rate-tightening is over, with inflation falling and the UK economy limping along. The key question is whether Bailey will change his stance and signal that rate cuts are on the way, as Fed Chair Powell did at the Fed meeting. Bailey has been hawkish, saying that rates will remain in restrictive territory for an extended period (“higher for longer”) and that there is more work needed to bring inflation back down to the Bank’s 2% target. Bailey has said that it’s premature to talk about rate cuts, but the markets aren’t buying it and have priced in five quarter-point rate cuts in 2024, up from three cuts just a few days ago. With a pause widely expected at today’s meeting, the rate statement and Bailey’s press conference could provide some drama and shake up the financial markets, if the BoE shifts from its hawkish stance and acknowledges that it plans to cut rates next year. Powell’s Pivot sends US dollar lower The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark rate on Wednesday, as expected. What was somewhat surprising was the Fed Chair Powell’s sharp pivot, as he signalled that the Fed expected to trim rates three times in 2024. This forecast comes less than two weeks after Powell said it would be “premature” to speculate about the timing of rate cuts and that the door was still open to further hikes. The rate statement noted that inflation “has eased over the past year but remains elevated”, suggesting that inflation is moving in the right direction but the battle ain’t over yet. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.2669. Above, there is resistance at 1.2720 There is support at 1.2585 and 1.2534      
Turbulent Times for Currencies: Bank of England's Pause and Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Projections - 14.12.2023

Turbulent Times for Currencies: Bank of England's Pause and Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Projections - 14.12.2023

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 14.12.2023 14:42
Short-term technical analysis suggests a potential countertrend rebound with intermediate resistance at 16,890. China’s top policymakers’ reluctance to focus on making domestic demand revival a top priority for 2024 is likely to put a damper on positive animal spirits in the long term. A focus on making high-tech industrialization a top policy may trigger more headwinds for China and Hong Kong stock markets.   This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Hang Seng Index Technical: Entrenched in a downward spiral” published on 7 December 2023. Click here for a recap. The China and Hong Kong benchmark stock indices have managed to catch a positive feedback loop from yesterday’s risk-on rally triggered by the US Federal Reserve’s dovish guidance. But overall, their major downtrend phases have remained intact since February 2021 with the Hang Seng Index on track to end 2024 with a fifth consecutive yearly loss (2023 year-to-date loss is at 17% at this time of the writing); its worst performing streak since January 2002. A similar weak performance is being reflected in the China CSI 300, on sight for a third consecutive yearly loss with a current year-to-date loss of -12.7% for 2023. The persistent underperformance of China and Hong Kong stock markets against the rest of the world has been driven by past “unfriendly” private sector policies enacted in China, lingering geopolitical tensions with the US, and the right now, heightened deflationary risk spiral due to the liquidity crunch inflicted in the property market where it has a significant wealth effect on China’s society.   China’s top policymakers placed industrialization policy as the top priority for 2024   The recently concluded China’s annual economic work conference attended by the top leadership stated that next year’s priority will be on building a modern industrial system with a focus on developing cutting-edge technologies and artificial intelligence. This year’s priority of boosting domestic demand slipped to second spot for 2024. These 2024 economic goals and initiatives will be formalized and made official during the National People’s Congress, and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (Two Sessions) in March 2024. Hence, it seems that low odds for a significant and sustainable revival of bullish animal spirits for China and the Hong Kong stock markets in 2024 as policymakers are still reluctant to make a shift away from the current targeted approach to adopting more broad-based stimulus measures coupled with structural moves to remove bad assets from property developers’ balance sheets to reverse the chronic weakness seen in the property market. US-China geopolitical tension may see an uptick in 2024 Also, making high-tech industrialization a key priority in 2024 is likely to invite more scrutinization from neo-conservative US politicians that may put a strain on the current US-China geopolitical theatrics that have witnessed a tense rivalry between the two superpowers in obtaining cutting-edge semiconductors chips and peripherals.   The US presidential election will be held in November 2024 and in the run-up to election day, there is likely to be intense debate among the presidential candidates and finger-pointing again at China’s current industrialization policy that needs to be “neutralized” due to its potential national security threat to the US. All in all, it is likely to trigger a bout of “uninvestable” narratives on China’s financial markets that may prevent a sustainable recovery from taking shape in 2024 for China and Hong Kong stock markets.     16,100 is the last line of defence for the Hang Seng Index Fig 1: Hang Seng Index long-term secular trend as of 14 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)     The current price actions have managed to retest and held at the long-term secular ascending trendline in place since the Asian Financial Crisis’s August 1998 low now acting as support at 16,100. The long-term monthly RSI momentum indicator has continued to exhibit bearish momentum reading below key parallel resistance at the 50 level which suggests that the 16,100 key major support is vulnerable to a major bearish breakdown. A weekly close below 16,100 may trigger a potential multi-month impulsive downleg sequence within its major downtrend phase to expose the next major support at 12,200 (also the Great Financial Crisis’s swing lows area of October 2008/March 2009). Potential short-term minor countertrend rebound   Fig 2: Hong Kong 33 minor short-term trend as of 14 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) In the lens of technical analysis, price actions do not move in vertical directional movements as market participants adjust their behaviours accordingly to the latest related events and news flow. The short-term hourly chart of the Hong Kong 33 Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) has staged a bullish breakout above the resistance of a minor descending channel from the 23 November 2023 high which increases the odds that a minor countertrend rebound motion may be in progress. Watch the 16,100 key pivotal support and a clearance above 16,500 may see the next intermediate resistance coming in at 16,890 (the downward sloping 20-day moving average & the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior down move from 16 November 2023 high to 11 December 2023 low). However, failure to hold at 16,100 invalidates the countertrend rebound scenario to expose the next intermediate supports of 15,890 and 15,500 in the first step.  
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Australian Dollar Rebounds as Federal Reserve Signals Likely Pause; Focus on Job Growth and Rate Expectations

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 14.12.2023 14:47
Australian dollar rebounds Australian job growth expected to decelerate Federal Reserve likely to pause for third straight time The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday, after three straight losing sessions. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6584, up 0.38%. Will Powell push back against rate cut expectations? Today’s Federal Reserve’s rate announcement will almost certainly be a pause, which would mark the third consecutive time that the Fed held the benchmark rate at the target range of 5.25%-5.50%. That doesn’t mean the meeting isn’t significant, as investors will be looking for clues to the Fed’s rate plans next year. The markets have scaled back their forecasts of rate cuts in 2024 after the stronger-than-expected job report on Friday and yesterday’s inflation release, which showed that inflation remains high. Earlier in December, the markets were pricing in around five quarter-point cuts in 2024 but that has been trimmed to four cuts. That view is miles apart from that of the Fed, which has insisted that it hasn’t shut the door to further rate hikes and has warned that inflation remains too high. If Powell reiterates this hawkish stance and pushes back against rate hike expectations, the market would likely be forced to again reduce expectations of a rate cut.   Australia will release the November job report on Thursday. The economy is expected to have created 11,000 jobs, compared to 55,000 in October. The unemployment rate has been inching higher and is expected to rise to 3.8%, up from 3.7% in November. The Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly said that future rate decisions will be data-dependent and the strength of the labour market is a key factor that will be closely watched by RBA policy makers. . AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6598. Above, there is resistance at 0.6671 0.6506 and 0.6433 are providing support  
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Interest Rate Dynamics: Navigating Uncertainty Post Central Bank Decisions

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 18.12.2023 13:55
Interest rates remain in focus after central bank decision week Following an intense week of central bank decisions with most of them being in line with expectations of keeping rates unchanged, it's become evident over the past few months that financial markets are aligned in the belief that UK interest rates have reached their peak and it would be surprising if the Bank of England were to implement an increase in UK interest rates in the near future, with such a decision likely only occurring in response to a substantial shock in inflation data. Meanwhile, predicting the timing of the initial interest rate cut, which would mark the first fall in UK interest rates since March 2020, is more challenging.  One thing that remains clear is that the UK economy is in a much worse position than both its European and US counterparts as GDP forecasts continue to indicate the potential for a recession which may trigger a response from the central bank. The BoE has also appeared to follow the US central bank (Federal Reserve) in its footsteps and may await the signal from it before starting its own rate cut cycle as rates are also expected to start falling in early 2024. In either case, new Bloomberg projections point to the possibility of the first rate cut being implemented by the Bank of England in the first quarter of 2024, followed by a gradual fall in rates throughout the following meetings with the target being reached in the coming years.      
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German Business Confidence Weakens, Euro Gains Despite Headwinds

Akash Girimath Akash Girimath 18.12.2023 14:16
German business confidence weaker than expected The euro has started the week in positive territory on Monday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0914, up 0.18%. It was a week of sharp swings for the euro, which posted strong gains during the week but reversed directions on Friday and declined 0.88%. Still, the euro posted a winning week, rising 1.2% against the US dollar. German business confidence dips Germany’s Ifo Business Climate was softer than expected, dropping to 86.4 in December. This was down from a revised 87.2 in November and missed the market consensus of 87.8. Business conditions and business expectations also eased in December and were shy of the forecast, as companies remain pessimistic about the German economy. The lack of confidence mirrors the prolonged weakness in the German economy. December PMIs indicated contraction in both the services and manufacturing sectors. Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, also reported a decline, with the PMI falling to 48.4, down from 49.6 in November and short of the consensus estimate of 49.8. The servicaes industry has contracted for five straight months while manufacturing has been mired in contraction since June 2022. ECB stays hawkish The European Central Bank held the benchmark rate at 4.0% for a second straight time on Thursday. This move was expected but the central bank pushed back against market expectations for interest rate cuts next year, sending the euro soaring over 1% against the US dollar after the announcement. There is a deep disconnect between the markets and the ECB with regard to rate policy. The ECB remains hawkish and Reuters reported on Friday that ECB governors are unlikely to cut rates before June. The markets are marching to a very different tune and have priced in at least in around six rate cuts in 2024, with the initial cut expected around March. Lagarde has insisted that the central bank’s decisions will be data-dependent rather than time-dependent and she may have to join the rate-cut bandwagon if inflation continues to fall at a brisk pace. . EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0929. Above, there is resistance at 1.0970 1.0855 and 1.0814 are providing support        
Bank of Japan Keeps Rates Steady, Paves the Way for April Hike Amidst Market Disappointment

Bank of Japan Keeps Rates Steady, Paves the Way for April Hike Amidst Market Disappointment

ING Economics ING Economics 19.12.2023 12:14
JPY: Ueda disappoints markets, but April hike on the table The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged today as widely expected, but disappointed market hawkish expectations. The Bank kept its dovish guidance unchanged (“take additional monetary easing steps without hesitation if needed") which forced markets to abandon speculation of a rate hike in January.   The yen took a hit, falling almost by 1.0% against the dollar after the announcement and press conference by Governor Ueda, but we identified a few changes in the Bank’s assessment of the economic outlook that likely endorse the market’s lingering expectations for a hike in April. In particular, the BoJ noted that private consumption has continued to increase modestly, that inflation is likely to be above 2% throughout the 2024 fiscal year and that underlying inflation is likely to increase. Those statements are aimed at paving the way for policy normalisation in 2024, in our view. We expect the yield curve control to be scrapped in January and a hike to be delivered in April. From an FX perspective, the yen may simply revert to trading primarily on external factors (US rates in particular) after the BoJ ignored market pressure and likely signalled the path to normalisation should be a gradual one. We remain bearish on USD/JPY in 2024, as the oversold yen can still benefit from the end of negative rates in Japan and we see the Fed cutting rates by 150bp, but the pace of depreciation in the pair will be gradual in the near term, and we only see a decisive break below 140 in 2Q24.   ⚠️ Did the #BOJ fall asleep on the $JPY 🖨️ print button or what? 🤭Almost makes you wonder if someone out there is in desperate need of liquidity… 🤔 https://t.co/EdRfXb9vUH pic.twitter.com/z2dN3YVtuH — JustDario 🏊‍♂️ (@DarioCpx) December 19, 2023
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Bitcoin Starts 2024 with a Bang: Surges Over 5% Amidst Speculation on Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 02.01.2024 13:11
Cryptocurrencies kick off the new year with a strong performance, with Bitcoin surging by over 5% today, surpassing the $45,000 mark and resulting in a notable week-to-date and year-to-date gain for Bitcoin, reaching almost 9%. While the exact catalyst for this upward movement remains unclear, the overarching narrative in the cryptocurrency market centers around spot Bitcoin ETFs with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) currently evaluating multiple applications and with unconfirmed reports suggesting that a decision to approve these applications and facilitate the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs could be imminent, possibly within the week. A Reuters report from December 29, 2023, hinted at the possibility that the US regulator might clear some spot Bitcoin ETFs either today or tomorrow, paving the way for the ETF launch on January 10, 2024. The authenticity of this report and the likelihood of the green light being imminent remain uncertain, but the cryptocurrency markets have been responsive to any positive news, even those with vague details. Bitcoin is currently trading at its highest level since April 2022, marking a daily high just below the $46,000 threshold and from a technical standpoint, the situation appears bullish, as BITCOIN has broken above the upper limit of the $41,000-44,300 trading range and continues to gain momentum. As optimism grows in the crypto space, It seems almost certain that a Bitcoin ETF will be approved and the main doubts are now about timing rather than anything else.     
All Eyes on US Inflation: Impact on Rate Expectations and Market Sentiment

Decoding GBP/USD Trends: COT Insights, Technical Analysis, and Market Sentiment

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 02.01.2024 14:21
COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders has been changing quite frequently in recent months. The red and green lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, often intersect and, in most cases, are not far from the zero mark. According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group closed 10,000 buy contracts and 4,200 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 5,800 contracts in a week. Since bulls currently don't have the advantage, we believe that the pound will not be able to sustain the upward movement for long . The fundamental backdrop still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases on the pound.   The non-commercial group currently has a total of 58,800 buy contracts and 44,700 sell contracts. Since the COT reports cannot make an accurate forecast of the market's behavior right now, and the fundamentals are practically the same for both currencies, we can only assess the technical picture and economic reports. The technical analysis suggests that we can expect a strong decline, and the economic reports have also been significantly stronger in the United States for quite some time now.   On the 1H chart, GBP/USD is making every effort to correct lower, but the uptrend remains intact. We believe that the British pound doesn't have any good reason to strengthen in the long-term. Therefore, at the very least, we expect the pair to return to the level of 1.2513. However, there are currently no sell signals, so the uptrend is still intact. On Tuesday, there are few reasons for the pair to show volatile movements. We may see a flat phase, a downtrend, or an uptrend (intraday), so we need to purely rely on technical analysis. We expect the pound to consolidate below the trendline, and in that case, we can consider selling while aiming for the Senkou Span B line. A n upward movement is theoretically possible today, but we see no reason for it, so you shouldn't consider buying at the moment. As of January 2, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2513, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2726, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2646) and the Kijun-sen (1.2753) lines can also be sources of signals. Don't forget to set a breakeven Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Today, the UK and the US will release their second estimates of business activity indices in the manufacturing sector for December. These are not significant reports so it is unlikely for traders to react to them. Description of the chart: Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals; The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals; Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals; Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns; Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders; Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the Non-commercial group.  
Navigating the Bear Market. Understanding the Downtrend in Forex Trading

Navigating the Bear Market. Understanding the Downtrend in Forex Trading

FXMAG Education FXMAG Education 12.01.2024 15:03
The bearish trend, a significant aspect of Forex trading, plays a crucial role in shaping investment decisions. This article aims to elucidate the characteristics of the bear market and its implications for traders. Understanding the Downtrend As discussed in our previous articles, a trend represents the direction in which the price of a currency pair is moving. A fundamental trading principle is to align investments with the trend rather than against it. Therefore, comprehending the downtrend is essential. The identification of a downtrend can be facilitated by analyzing charts that reflect past price values. Analyzing the Downtrend In the chart, the descending peaks and troughs, marked in red, signify a downtrend. Connecting the peaks forms a clear trend line. The strength of the trend is proportional to the distance between the peaks, with a larger gap indicating a more robust trend. While charts may not always vividly display trend lines, recognizing a general downward price trend can serve as a signal to temporarily exit the market. Bear Market Dynamics A bear market, synonymous with a downtrend, occurs when prices consistently decline. In the long term, it signifies a bearish market. Adhering to the popular adage "the trend is your friend," in such scenarios, traders usually contemplate selling. Bear markets often exhibit greater volatility compared to bullish trends, attributed to the accompanying unease amid declining prices. Support and Resistance Lines Support and resistance lines denote potential reversal points in the price movement of a currency pair. In a downtrend, support comprises the successive troughs, each lower than the previous one. These levels represent the depths of prior downward movements, acting as points where the price resisted further decline. Conversely, resistance surfaces when there is a visible level at which the price resisted further upward movement. Referring to the "change of poles" principle, if a resistance level is breached, it transforms into a support level. This pivotal moment often prompts seasoned traders to enter the market. Understanding the dynamics of a bear market is crucial for Forex traders. By recognizing the signs of a downtrend, interpreting charts, and comprehending the roles of support and resistance lines, traders can navigate the complexities of bearish markets more adeptly.
EUR: Core Inflation Disappoints, ECB's Caution and Market Reactions

Inflation Challenges: US CPI Disappoints, Diminishing Odds of Early Fed Rate Cut

ING Economics ING Economics 16.01.2024 11:28
Sticky US inflation reduces chances of an early Fed rate cut In the wake of the Federal Reserve's dovish shift in December, financial markets had moved to price an interest rate cut as soon as March. However, the tight jobs market and today's firmer-than-expected inflation numbers suggest this is unlikely, barring an economic or financial system shock. We continue to think the Fed will prefer to wait until May.   CPI comes in above expectations December US CPI has come in at 0.3% month-on-month/3.4%year-on-year and core 0.3%/3.9% versus the 0.2/3.2% expectation for headline and 0.3/3.8% for core. So, it is a little disappointing, but not a huge miss. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims and continuing claims both came in lower than expected with continuing claims dropping to 1834k from 1868k – the lowest since late October. The combination of the two – slightly firmer inflation and good jobs numbers really brings into doubt the market expectation of a March rate cut from the Federal Reserve. We continue to see May as the most likely start point.   Core CPI measured in MoM, 3M annualised and YoY terms   This means that the annual rate of headline inflation has actually risen to 3.4% from 3.1% in November while the core rate (ex food and energy) has only fallen a tenth of a percentage point, so we appear to have plateaued after a strong disinflationary trend through the first nine months of 2023. The details show housing remains firm, with the key rent components continuing to post 0.4/0.5% MoM gains while used cars also rose 0.5% and airline fares increased 1% while medical care is also still running pretty hot at 0.6%. Motor vehicle insurance is especially strong, rising another 1.5% MoM, meaning costs are up more than 20%YoY. The so called “super-core” measure (core services CPI ex housing), which the Fed has been emphasising due to it reflecting tightness in the labour market given high wage cost inputs, posted another 0.4% MoM increase. This backdrop remains too hot for the Fed to want to cut rates imminently, especially with the economy likely posting 2-2.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year and the labour market remaining as tight as it is.   But this is just one measure and the outlook remains encouraging Nonetheless, the CPI report isn’t the only inflation measure the Fed looks at. In fact the preferred measure – the core personal consumer expenditure deflator – has shown much better performance. To get to 2% YoY we need to see the MoM% change averaging 0.17%. 0.31% MoM for core CPI is near enough double what we want to see, but for the core PCE deflator we have seen it come in below 0.17% MoM in five of the past six months. The reasons for the divergence are slight methodological differences in the calculations, with weights for key components such as housing and cars, being very different.   Observed rents still point to a sharp slowdown in housing inflation   Nonetheless, the prospects for consumer price inflation returning to 2% YoY remain good. We have to remember that cars and housing have a 50% weighting within the core CPI basket and we have pretty good visibility for both components. Observed private sector rents point to a clear slowdown in the housing components, while declines in Manheim car auction prices point to used car prices falling outright over the next two months. Also note that the NFIB small business survey showed only 25% of businesses are raising prices right now versus 50% in the fourth quarter of 2022. In fact, the last time we saw fewer businesses raising prices was January 2021. So, while today's report wasn't as good as it could have been, there are still reasons for optimism on sustained lower inflation rates in 2024. We still see a good chance headline and core CPI to be in the 2-2.5% YoY range by late second quarter.
Eurozone PMIs: Tentative Signs of Stabilization Amid Ongoing Economic Challenge

Assessing the Impact: UK Wages and CPI Figures for December and Their Implications on Monetary Policy

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 16.01.2024 11:45
UK wages/UK CPI (Dec) – 16/01 and 17/01 Since March of last year headline CPI in the UK has more than halved, slowing from 10.1%, with November slowing more than expected to 3.9%, prompting speculation that the Bank of England might be closer to cutting rates in 2024 than had been originally priced. The decline in headline inflation is very much welcome, however most of it has been driven by the falls in petrol prices over the past few weeks. Inflation elsewhere in the UK economy is still much higher although even in these areas it has been slowing. Food price inflation for example is still much higher, slowing to 6.6% in December, while wage growth is still trending above 7% at 7.2%. Services inflation is also higher at 6.3% while core prices rose at 5.1% in the 3-months to November.   This week's wages and inflation numbers are likely to be key bellwethers for the timing of when the Bank of England might look at starting to reduce the base rate, however the key test for markets won't be on how whether we see a further slowdown in inflation at the end of last year, but how much of a rebound we see in the January numbers. Whatever markets might look to price as far as rate cuts are concerned the fact that wages are still trending above 7% is likely to stay the Bank of England's hand when it comes to looking at rate cuts. It's also important to remember that at the last rate meeting 3 members voted for a further 25bps rate hike. That means it will take more than a further slowdown in the headline rate for these 3 MPC members to reverse that call, let alone call for rate cuts. Expectations are for wages to slow to 6.7% and headline CPI to come in at 3.8%.  
Hawkish Notes and Global Markets: An Overview

Hawkish Notes and Global Markets: An Overview

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Ipek Ozkardeskaya 25.01.2024 12:37
Say something hawkish, I'm giving up on you By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank   The week started on a positive note on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. Equities in both Europe and the US gained on Monday. The tech stocks continued to do the heavy lifting with Nvidia hitting another record. The positive chip vibes also marked the European trading session; the Dutch semiconductor manufacturer ASML regained its status as the third-largest listed company in Europe, surpassing Nestle, thanks to an analyst upgrade.  Moving forward, the earnings announcements will take the center stage, with Netflix due to announce its Q4 results today after the bell. The streaming giant expects to have added millions more of new paid subscribers to its platform after it scrapped password sharing last year.   Away from the sunny US stocks, the situation is much less exciting for China. Right now, the CSI 300 stocks trade near 5-year lows and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong are trading with the deepest discount to the mainland peers in 15 years, as the Chinese interventions are said to be less felt in Hong Kong than in the mainland. Today, though, the Chinese stocks are better bid because Chinese Premier Li Qiang called for more effective measures to stabilize the slumping Chinese stocks, but the truth is, investors left Chinese stocks because of the ferocious government crackdown on most loved Chinese companies. Nothing less than drastic financial support would be enough to bring investors back.  The Japanese stocks continue to be the bright spot among the Asian equity markets. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) negative interest rates, the cheap yen and the positive outcomes of the tech war between the US and China have been pushing the Japanese Nikkei index to multi-decade highs, and these factors are not ready to reverse just yet. Today, the BoJ didn't only announce that it would keep the interest rates unchanged at -0.10% and the upper band for the 10-yer yield steady at 1%, but the bank lowered its inflation forecasts citing the decline in oil prices. We haven't heard the BoJ presser at the time of writing but lowering inflation forecast highlights that there is no emergency to make any changes to the BoJ policy, even less so after a powerful earthquake hit the island at the very beginning of the year. On the contrary, if inflation – which is the bad side of low rates – is under control, the bank would do better to keep the rates low and its economy supported. As such, the USDJPY remains bid above the 148 level after the BoJ decision and before the post-decision presser. The long yen trade looks much less appetizing today than it did by the end of last year. Yet going short the yen is a risky option considering the rising risk of a verbal intervention when the USDJPY approaches the 150 level. Therefore, the USDJPY will likely waver between the 145/150 range, until there is more clarity about the timing of the BoJ normalization.   Elsewhere, the day is expected to unfold slowly. Investors will monitor the Richmond manufacturing index and await Netflix's earnings release. Additionally, attention is on Donald Trump, who has gained favoritism after Ron DeSantis withdrew his support and endorsed Mr. Trump for this year's presidential race. The potential impact of a Trump victory on financial markets is challenging to quantify; he may adopt a tougher stance on China, implement tax cuts, and increase spending, leading to mixed effects.   For those who missed out on the meme stock frenzy, it's however intriguing to observe Trump's special-purpose acquisition company, DWAC, which surged nearly 90% yesterday.  
Poland on the Global Investment Map:  Analyzing EBRD’s Record €1.3 Billion  Investment

Southern Europe Braces for Deeper Impact in 2024 from ECB Rate Hikes: Changing Economic Dynamics

ING Economics ING Economics 25.01.2024 15:49
Southern Europe to feel the most lingering pain this year from ECB rate hikes The impact of last year's ECB rate hikes is set to have a bigger impact on southern than northern eurozone countries in 2024, according to our research. Asset prices and investments in the south have outperformed those in the north. But rapidly declining borrowing now suggests that that's about to change, not least because debt is rising rapidly   Southern eurozone countries have largely defied the impact of ECB rate hikes up to now While expectations initially were that southern European countries would face significant problems if the European Central Bank were to raise rates aggressively, this has yet to materialise. In fact, it seems to be the other way around: several indicators point to a stronger transmission of tighter monetary policy on northern and not southern European countries. Take the stock market, where performances in northern European main indices have been weaker than in the south. The Euro Stoxx 50 turned down in December 2021 as long-term yields started to increase globally. Since then, the German and French main indices have been up 5%, and the Dutch AEX is down 1.4%. But in Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal, the main indices have surged by 16, 11, 45, and 15%. Price developments in the housing market also point to a larger impact in northern Europe. Germany, Netherlands and France have seen house prices fall below their recent highs, while Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece still experience increasing house prices, according to the latest available data.  The surge in investments in Southern European countries is remarkable. Admittedly, there is more to investment than just interest rates; think of the impact of the Recovery and Resilience Fund and possibly the delayed impact of low interest rates and the search for yield, as well as successful structural reforms. Still, investments in Southern European countries increased by some 15% since late 2020, while investments in core countries increased by less than 5% in the same period. We think a change is on the cards.    Investment and house prices have outperformed in southern Europe   Differences in transmission are starting to show As we argued in this recent piece, the pain of monetary tightening is likely to be felt more in 2024 than last year due to the long and variable legs of monetary policy transmission. It just takes a while before the impact of tightening really impacts the economy. There is increasing evidence that the transmission of monetary policy in 2024 will be less favourable for southern European economies. Take the most recent lending data. Lending volumes are currently falling in most southern European economies. In Italy, it's looking really rather serious as the 6% year-on-year fall of borrowing by non-financial corporates is worse than during the Global Financial and euro crises. Spain, Portugal and Italy see declining borrowing volumes for both households and corporates, while northern European economies are still seeing year-on-year growth in borrowing. Belgium and France do particularly well among larger markets, while Germany and Netherlands see stagnation. The differences in lending do not stem from differences in bank rates for new loans, as these don’t diverge materially.   Bank lending growth is diverging quickly, likely resulting in weaker periphery investment
All Eyes on US Inflation: Impact on Rate Expectations and Market Sentiment

The Deliberate Comments of Deputy Governor Virág: Anticipating a 100bp Rate Cut by National Bank of Hungary

ING Economics ING Economics 25.01.2024 16:33
The comments of Deputy Governor Virág were deliberate However, on 17 January Deputy Governor Virág spoke at the Euromoney conference in Vienna, and his remarks tilted our rate cut expectations from 75bp to 100bp. He conveyed the message that: “based on the information available, there were as many reasons for a 75bp cut as there were for a 100bp cut at the January meeting”. We believe that these comments are more likely to indicate an increase in the pace of rate cuts, as they were made in the context of weighing the favourable developments in internal factors against unfavourable developments in external factors   Our call Against this backdrop, we see the National Bank of Hungary cutting the base rate by 100bp on 30 January. This could bring the key rate down to 9.75% after the rate-setting meeting, while we expect the Monetary Council to also cut both ends of the rate corridor by 100-100bp. There remains one major factor that poses a downside risk to our call and that is FX stability. We believe that if we were to see a further marked deterioration in EUR/HUF, this would encourage the central bank to remain more cautious and maintain the previous pace of 75bp of easing. However, as the central bank will certainly remain in data-dependency mode, this does not mean that 100bp cuts will be automatic going forward. Rather, we expect the NBH to cautiously assess both internal and external developments and act accordingly on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Our view on the pace of disinflation has not changed, as we expect disinflation to continue forcefully in the first quarter, but then to stall from the second quarter onwards as base effects reverse. This means that, on the basis of current information, we expect the pace of rate cuts to be reduced at the March meeting.   Our market views The Hungarian forint outperformed its CEE peers significantly in the first days of the year with lows below 378 EUR/HUF. However, we turned negative on HUF ahead of the December inflation reading due to significant divergence between FX and rates, which proved to be the right decision. HUF has since weakened by 2% flushing out the long positioning that the market had built in the last two months. Of course, EUR/HUF is one of the main, if not most important, factors influencing the speed of the NBH rate cut.   CEE currencies vs EUR (end 2022 = 100%) For now, we think EUR/HUF levels of 386-387 are still comfortable for the central bank, however, we believe that above 390 the NBH would start to consider a more cautious approach with a hard stop above 395, i.e. only a 75bp rate cut.  We believe the gap between FX and rates that we pointed to earlier has been closed, but positioning and global risk-off sentiment affecting the entire CEE region could push EUR/HUF higher, which would raise the risk to our NBH call   Hungarian yield curve   After a huge rally in rates in the first half of January, the market pressure eased and some bets on rate cuts were taken back. However, the curve continues to steepen with the 2s10s IRS within reach of zero, significantly outperforming CEE peers at the moment. However, if the NBH delivers a 100bp rate cut as we expect, the market will move back to where it was after the December inflation reading and comments from NBH officials. That's why we like getting rates at these levels at the short end of the curve. Looking even better in our view are Hungarian Government Bonds (HGBs) which have also sold off and are not trading far off the IRS curve. So with a very favourable inflation profile for the coming months and the central bank cutting rates, we see good value here once again. Additionally, the supply side of HGBs looks good, with a significant drop in net supply in particular, from last year.  
All Eyes on US Inflation: Impact on Rate Expectations and Market Sentiment

CEE Region's Borrowing Outlook: Lower Needs, Broader Sources, and FX Market Dynamics

ING Economics ING Economics 25.01.2024 16:36
Borrowing needs will fall this year, meaning a lower supply of LCY bonds, but there is still a long way to go given the slow fiscal consolidation. Central and Eastern Europe should remain more active in the FX market than pre-Covid, while a busy January and the broadening of funding sources offer flexibility for the rest of the year Borrowing needs this year will be down on last year in the whole CEE region, with the exception of Poland. The decline is due to both lower budget deficits and redemptions. In contrast, in Poland, both have increased year-on-year. Overall, the supply of local currency bonds should fall but remain well above pre-Covid levels. Given lower yields, this supply may prove more difficult to place in the market compared to last year, which saw strong market demand despite record supply. This time is different, and we expect financial markets to be tougher and punish more budget overruns and additional issuance. Local currency issuance: Improvement but still a long way to go From a positioning perspective, we find the Romanian government bond (ROMGBs) market to be overcrowded after the significant inflows last year. On the other hand, the significantly underweight Polish government bond (POLGBs) market should help cover the historically record borrowing needs. Czech government bonds (CZGBs) and Hungarian government bonds (HGBs) remain somewhere in between with steady foreign inflows into the market. On the sovereign ratings side, all the obvious changes happened last year and should stabilise this year with only some adjustments in outlooks in the pipeline, unless a more significant shock arrives. On the local currency supply side, we see a clear improvement from last year in the Czech Republic, as it was a bright spot in the CEE region with credible public finance consolidation. In addition, we see it as the only country in the region with positive risks of a lower supply of CZGBs than the Ministry of Finance indicates. Hungary has also made great progress here, of course, with the traditional broad diversification of funding sources that should keep the pressure off the HGB market in the event of an overshoot of the projected deficit. In contrast, we see only a relatively small improvement in Romania, where the supply of ROMGBs will fall only a little. The supply of Polish government bonds, meanwhile, was already at a record-high last year and is set to rise a little more this year. In addition, the use of additional sources to avoid flooding the local currency bond market will increase significantly, which we believe represents the biggest challenge for the bond market in the CEE region this year.   FX issuance: Fast start and diverse funding sources offer flexibility On the FX side, CEE sovereigns are set to remain active in the Eurobond primary market in 2024 and beyond, with the overall trend driven by recent external shocks from Covid and surging energy prices, along with structural factors such as the energy transition in Europe. A key theme that unites regular issuers Romania, Poland, and Hungary is the diversification of funding sources, with more consistent interest in the US dollar, as well as alternative currencies such as the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, alongside the more traditional euro for the region. The growing green bond market is also an area of focus, with Hungary leading the way, and Romania set to follow this year. At the same time, 2024 should see some divergence, with Poland taking the lead in the region for Eurobond issuance and set to be one of the largest EM sovereign issuers globally this year. Hungary should see a slight reduction in Eurobond supply compared to recent years, with its strategy of diversifying funding sources and front-loading supply providing plenty of flexibility for the rest of the year. Romania should retain its position as a regular issuer, although net supply will be lower this year, while catching up with Poland and Hungary in terms of diverse funding sources via green issuance and alternative currencies. A strong start to the year, with almost $15bn in issuance for CEE in January so far, should mean less pressure on the region to issue later in the year if market conditions turn.  
Federal Reserve's Stance: Holding Rates Steady Amidst Market Expectations, with a Cautionary Tone on Overly Aggressive Rate Cut Pricings

ECB Maintains Rates and Communication, Labels Discussion of Rate Cuts as Premature; Lagarde Stresses Importance of Wage Developments

ING Economics ING Economics 25.01.2024 16:40
ECB keeps rates and communication unchanged, discussion of rate cuts premature European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stressed during the press conference that any discussion on rate cuts was still premature.   At today’s meeting, the European Central Bank kept everything unchanged: both policy rates and communication. The press release with the policy announcements is almost a verbatim copy of the December statement. The ECB only dropped two phrases that could be interpreted as opening the door to rate cuts very softly: the December comments on domestic price pressure being elevated, and the temporary pick-up in inflation. The fact that these two phrases were dropped, however, could also simply be linked to the fact that there are no new forecasts. And during the press conference, ECB President Lagarde mentioned that observers shouldn’t pay too much attention to subtle changes in the text. Admittedly, we don’t know what to do with this comment, bearing in mind that central bankers are normally known for weighing every single word and comma in their communication. Also during the press conference, Lagarde stressed that the Governing Council had concluded that any discussion on rate cuts was currently premature. She repeated the importance of wage developments in the coming months for the next ECB steps, pointing to some indicators that already show some slowing in wage growth. While this could be seen as a very tentative shift towards more dovishness, Lagarde also emphasised the need for inflation to be on a sustainable downward trend. Asked whether she would repeat her statement from last week in Davos that rate cuts by the summer were likely, Lagarde replied that she always stood by what she had said. Even though we today learned that we shouldn’t pay too much attention to every single word, we do remember that Lagarde said in November last year that the ECB wouldn’t cut rates in the next couple of quarters. Combining these two comments would imply that a first rate cut could not come in June but only in July at the earliest. However, past experience has shown that the ECB president is not necessarily the best ECB forecaster.   We stick to our call of a June cut Looking ahead, today’s meeting once again stressed that the ECB is in no position to start cutting rates soon. In any case, even if actual growth continues to turn out weaker than the ECB had expected every single quarter, as long as the eurozone remains in de facto stagnation mode and doesn’t slide into a more severe recession, and as long as the ECB continues to predict a return to potential growth rates one or two quarters later, there is no reason for the ECB to react to more sluggish growth with imminent rate cuts. Also, the job of bringing inflation back to target is not done yet. In the coming months, inflation developments will be determined by two opposing trends: more disinflation and potentially even deflation as a result of weaker demand, but also new inflationary pressures due to less favourable base effects, new inflationary pressure as a result of the tensions in the Suez Canal as well as government interventions in some countries, above all Germany. As long as actual inflation remains closer to 3% than 2%, the ECB will not look into possible rate cuts. It would require a severe recession or a sharp drop in longer-term inflation forecasts to clearly below 2% to see a rate cut in the coming months. We continue to believe that a first rate cut will not come before June.
Crude Oil Eyes 200-DMA Amidst Positive Growth Signals and Inflation Concerns

Treading Cautiously: Markets Await Today's Core PCE Data for Fed Insight

Michael Hewson Michael Hewson 26.01.2024 14:13
Today's core PCE the next key signpost ahead of next weeks Fed meeting By Michael Hewson (Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)   European markets managed to eke out a small gain yesterday after the ECB kept rates unchanged but left the door ajar to the prospect of a rate cut before the summer. ECB President Christine Lagarde did push back strongly on speculation that policymakers had discussed anything like that insisting that such talk was premature, echoing her comments made earlier this month. It was noteworthy however that the possibility of a cut before June wasn't ruled out completely, and it was that markets reacted to yesterday as yields declined sharply, which does keep the prospect of an earlier move on the table given how poor this week's economic data has been.   US markets also managed to finish the day higher with the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 putting in new record closes, after US Q4 GDP came in well above expectations at 3.3%. The core PCE price index also remained steady at 2% for the second quarter in succession, and in line with the Federal Reserve's inflation target, thus keeping faint hopes of a US rate cut in March alive. It also places much greater importance on today's December core PCE deflator inflation numbers which aren't expected to vary much from what we saw in the November numbers. At the moment markets seem convinced that the Fed might spring a surprise in March and slip in an early rate cut if inflation shows further signs of slowing. That might make sense if the US economy was struggling but this week's economic numbers clearly suggest it isn't, and if anything is still growing at a decent clip. There is a danger that in cutting rates in March they drive market expectations of further cuts into overdrive, something they have been keen to push back on with recent commentary.   In any case with the Federal Reserve due to meet next week markets are continuing to try and finesses the timing of when the first rate cut is likely to occur, after Powell's surprisingly dovish shift when the central bank last met just before Christmas. That means today PCE numbers are likely to be a key waypoint for markets and the central bank, after the PCE core deflator slowed to 3.2% in November, slipping from 3.4% in October, and the lowest level since April 2021. A further slowdown to 3% or even lower, which appears to be the consensus could see markets continue to build on the prospect of a rate cut in March, which took hold back in December. The bigger concern for some Fed officials is that headline CPI appears to be ticking higher again, which may make the last yards to 2% much trickier. This will be the Fed's key concern over an early cut as it could reignite the inflationary pressures that have taken so long to get under control. This caution would suggest that March is too early for a US rate cut, and that the market is getting ahead of itself, with policymakers also likely to pay attention to consumer demand. This means personal spending is also likely to be a key indicator for the FOMC and here we are expecting to see a pickup to 0.5% from 0.2%. With the US consumer still looking resilient the Fed is likely to be extra cautious if inflation starts ticking higher again as it already has with headline CPI.   It was also interesting to note that while yields fell sharply yesterday, the US dollar didn't, it actually finished the day higher and well off the lows of the week.       EUR/USD – slipped back towards the 200-day SMA at 1.0820/30 yesterday, with a break below 1.0800 targeting a potential move towards 1.0720. Resistance at the highs this week at 1.0930 and behind that at 1.1000.  GBP/USD – while the pound has struggled to push higher this week, we've managed to consistently hold above the support at the 50-day SMA as well as the 1.2590 area. We need to get above 1.2800 to maintain upside momentum. EUR/GBP – finally slipped to support at the 0.8520 area, which needs to hold to prevent a move towards the August lows at 0.8490. Resistance at the 0.8620/25 area and the highs last week. USD/JPY – currently finding resistance at the 148.80 area which has held over the last week or so which could see a move back towards the 146.25 area. A fall through 146.00 could delay a move towards 150 and argue for a move towards 144.00. FTSE100 is expected to open 30 points higher at 7,559 DAX is expected to open 50 points lower at 16,857 CAC40 is expected to open 28 points higher at 7,492.
Federal Reserve's Stance: Holding Rates Steady Amidst Market Expectations, with a Cautionary Tone on Overly Aggressive Rate Cut Pricings

Federal Reserve's Stance: Holding Rates Steady Amidst Market Expectations, with a Cautionary Tone on Overly Aggressive Rate Cut Pricings

ING Economics ING Economics 26.01.2024 14:21
Federal Reserve to downplay chances of imminent action while holding rates steady The dovish shift in Fed forecasts in December – with three rate cuts pencilled in for 2024 – incentivised the market to push even more aggressively in pricing cuts. However, they appear to have gone too far too fast for the Fed’s liking, even though inflation is almost back to target.   Expect more pushback against a March rate cut The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the Fed funds target range unchanged at 5.25-5.50% next Wednesday while continuing the process of shrinking its balance sheet via quantitative tightening – allowing $60bn of maturing Treasuries and $35bn of agency mortgage backed securities to run off its balance sheet each month.  At the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting there was undoubtedly a dovish shift. We got an acknowledgement that growth "has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter" plus a recognition that "inflation has eased over the past year". With policy regarded as being in restrictive territory, the updated dot plot of individual forecasts indicated the committee was coalescing around the view that it would likely end up cutting the policy rate by 75bp this year.  This was interpreted by markets as giving them the green light to push on more aggressively. Given the Fed’s perceived conservative nature the risks were skewed towards them eventually implementing even more than it was publicly suggesting. At one point seven 25bp moves were being priced by markets with the first cut coming in March. A March interest rate cut looked too soon to us given strong growth and the tight jobs market, so the recent Fed official commentary downplaying the chances of an imminent move hasn’t come as a surprise. Markets are now pricing just a 50% chance of such a move with nothing priced for the 31 January FOMC.   Fed funds target rate (%) and the period of time between the last rate hike and first rate cut in a cycle   But the statement will shift to neutral In terms of the accompanying statement we do expect further changes. The December FOMC text added the word “any” to the sentence “in determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time”, offering a clear hint that that interest rates have peaked. The commentary ahead of the blackout period had suggested the Fed saw no imminent need for a rate cut, so we expect it to continue to push back against an early move, but continuing talk of rate hikes in the press statement is not going to look particularly credible to markets. The Fed could choose to go back to its previous stock phraseology (used in January 2019 when it held policy steady after it had hiked rates one last time in December 2018) that “in determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realised and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective”.   And rate cuts are coming... Despite this, we believe the Fed will end up delivering substantial interest rate cuts. We continue to see some downside risks for growth in the coming quarters relative to the consensus as the legacy of tight monetary policy and credit conditions weighs on activity and Covid-era accrued household savings provide less support. Inflation pressures are subsiding with the quarter-on-quarter annualised core personal consumer expenditure deflator effectively saying 'job done' after two consecutive quarters of 2% prints. The Fed’s current view is that the neutral Fed funds rate is 2.5%, signalling scope for 300bp of rate cuts just to get us to 'neutral' policy rates. Moreover, the 'real' policy rate, adjusted for inflation, will continue to rise as inflation moderates. We believe the Fed will choose to wait until May to make the first move, with ongoing subdued core inflation measures giving it the confidence to cut the policy rate down to 4% by the end of this year versus the 4.5% consensus forecast, and 3% by mid-2025. This will merely get us close to neutral territory. If the economy does enter a more troubled period and the Fed needs to move into 'stimulative' territory there is scope for much deeper cuts.   The Fed is knee-deep in technical adjustments, and there's likely more to come on the QT front One item has already been dealt with ahead of the FOMC meeting – the end of the Bank Term Funding facility. See more on that here. One of the takeaways is the notion that the Fed is comfortable with the system. That at least sends a comfort signal to the market. In that vein, the Fed ignited an accelerated discussion on potential tapering of the its quantitative tightening (QT) agenda ahead. Currently the Fed is allowing some $95bn of bonds to roll off its balance sheet on a monthly basis. So far this has not pressured bank reserves, which are in the $3.5bn area. The Fed has been quoted as viewing this as comfortable, with the implication that they can fall, but not by too much. The 10% of GDP back-of-the-envelope target would be in the area of $3tn. Most of the pressure from QT programme is being felt through lower reverse repo balances going back to the Fed on the overnight basis. Ongoing balances there are running at around $550bn, down by some $1.8tn since March 2023. That pace of fall is in excess of the monthly pace of QT. The residual is accounted for by a rise in the US Treasury cash balances at the Fed. Bottom line, there are two sources of comfort here. First, room from the reverse repo balance of $550bn. That can get to zero without a material impact on bank reserves. Second, the fact that bank reserves themselves have a $500bn comfort factor between $3.5tn now to the $3tn area neutral. There is no urgency for Fed to set a plan in place, but it seems they want to get cracking on it. It’s likely the Fed formulates a plan to slow the pace of QT over the second half of the year, as by mid-year we expect to see the reverse repo balances pretty close to zero. Maybe cut it by a third for starters. We’d then be on a glide path over the second half of 2024 where bank reserves would begin to ease lower. We’d then expect QT to have concluded by year-end. Over to the Fed to see how they deal with it.   Dollar bears require patience We feel it is a little too early for the Fed to pump more air into the easing narrative and would probably prefer to let the data do the talking. However, the conviction is there in markets that the Fed and other major central banks will be in a position to cut later this year. This suggests that the dollar does not have to rally too far on any Fed remarks seen as less than dovish. For the time being we see no reason to argue with seasonal factors which normally keep the dollar strong through the early months of the year. We retain a 1.08 EUR/USD target for the end of the first quarter, but expect a clearer upside path to develop through the second quarter once the first Fed cut looks imminent.   
Bank of England's February Meeting: Navigating Rate Cut Speculations and Economic Variables

Bank of England's February Meeting: Navigating Rate Cut Speculations and Economic Variables

ING Economics ING Economics 26.01.2024 14:49
Four scenarios for the Bank of England's February meeting Expect the BoE to drop the pretence that it could hike rates again but to continue signalling rates will stay restrictive for an "extended period". With services inflation and wage growth to remain sticky in the near term, we think August is the most likely starting point for rate cuts.   Four scenarios for the Bank of England meeting   The BoE seems more reticent than other central banks to endorse rate cuts Both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have hinted, with varying degrees of caveats, that rate cuts are on the cards this year. So far, the Bank of England hasn’t followed suit. It was careful not to say anything at the December meeting that could be misconstrued as an endorsement of market pricing on cuts. And there has essentially been radio silence from committee members since then. We suspect the Bank will still want to tread carefully as it gears up for the first meeting of 2024. But the reality is that defending a “higher for longer” stance on interest rates is getting harder as the inflation backdrop shows signs of improving. Remember that the BoE has pinned the chances of rate cuts on three variables. One is the strength of the jobs market, but data here is suffering from well-known reliability problems. So, in practice, it comes down to services inflation and private-sector wage growth. Both are tracking well below the November BoE projections. Services CPI is currently 6.4%, and despite that coming as an upside surprise to consensus when it was released, it’s still half a percentage point below the BoE’s projection. Private wage growth is 6.5%, but remember this is a three-month average and the latest two ‘single month’ readings are around 6%. When we get the data in a couple of weeks, this variable is likely to have ended the year a full percentage point below the BoE’s most recent forecast (7.2%). Add in the fact that natural gas prices are noticeably lower across the futures curve, and we should see sizeable downward revisions to the Bank’s inflation forecasts for this year. But what happens to the forecasts beyond 2024 is less clear-cut.   Financial markets expect roughly four UK rate cuts this year
Bank of England's February Meeting: Expectations and Market Impact Analysis

Bank of England's February Meeting: Expectations and Market Impact Analysis

ING Economics ING Economics 26.01.2024 14:50
Expect the Bank to drop its tightening bias Financial markets expect the Bank Rate to be one percentage point lower in two or three years' time than was the case in November. That will have important ramifications for the Bank’s two-year inflation forecast, which is seen as a barometer of whether markets have got it right on the level of rate cuts priced. Previously, the Bank’s model-based estimate put headline inflation at 1.9% in two years’ time, or 2.2%, once an ‘upside skew’ is applied. We wouldn’t be surprised if this ‘mean’ forecast (incorporating an upside skew) is still a little above 2% in the new set of forecasts. And if that’s the case, it can be read as the BoE subtly pushing back against the quantity of rate cuts markets are pricing in. If that happens, we suspect markets will largely shrug it off. The bigger question is whether the Bank makes any changes to its statement – and its forward guidance currently reads like this: Policy needs to stay “sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long.” It’s likely to stay restrictive for “an extended period of time.” “Further tightening” is required if evidence of “more persistent inflationary pressures.” We think the baseline assumption going into this meeting is that the last of those sentences gets dropped and that the three hawks who'd been voting for a rate hike in December finally throw in the towel, given the recent run of inflation data. A hawkish surprise is, therefore, a statement that looks much the same as December’s, with at least one or two committee members voting for a further rate hike. A dovish surprise would see the Bank remove or water down the sentence on how long policy needs to stay restrictive. There’s also a tail-risk that Swati Dhingra, known to be the most dovish committee member, votes for a rate cut, though our base case is a unanimous decision to keep rates unchanged (6-3 previously).     Markets seem more sensitive to dovish nuances of late The market discount for BoE rate cuts has moderated. At the end of last year, a first cut by May was still fully discounted, and overall more than six cuts were fully priced in for 2024. This has come back towards slightly more than 50% implied probability of a May cut and four cuts overall being priced in. These are not unplausible scenarios but are obviously dependent on data and, for instance, the government's tax plans. But looking at markets more globally, they appear more sensitive to softer data and any dovish nuances provided in communications. As such, we do see a possibility for front-end rates to tick slightly lower if the MPC, for instance, removes its hike bias - in its commentary as well as the voting split. Further out the curve 10Y gilt yields have risen back towards 4% from around 3.5% at year-end. But yields appear capped at 4%, facing resistance to move higher. If we take a simple modelling approach, augmenting a short-term money-market-based estimate of the 10Y gilt with yields of its US and German bond peers, we conclude that gilts see slightly too high yields already. Keep in mind that the BoE meeting is flanked by the Fed meeting, jobs data in the US, and the CPI release in the eurozone, which should be crucial in driving wider sentiment. When it comes to FX markets, sterling has been the best-performing G10 currency against the dollar this year. Its implied yield of 5.2% means that it is the only G10 currency up against the dollar on a total return basis this year. As above and given that the market is minded to look for the more dovish interpretation of central bank communication in what should be a year of disinflation, the idea of the BoE playing dovish catch-up with the Fed and the ECB could be a mild sterling negative.  That probably means that EUR/GBP will struggle to maintain any break below strong support at 0.8500 in the near term, and the BoE event risk means EUR/GBP could start to trade back over 0.8600.  However, our end-quarter target of 0.8800 looks too aggressive now. Scope for tax cuts in early March, sticky services inflation and composite PMI readings comfortably above 50 in the UK could well mean that EUR/GBP traces out a 0.85-0.87 range through the first half of this year. For GBP/USD, the FX options market currently prices a very modest 42 USD pips of day event risk around the Wednesday FOMC/Thursday BoE meeting. Our baseline scenario assumes GBP/USD could trade back down to/under 1.2700 on Thursday, especially should the FOMC meeting have disappointed those looking for a March rate cut from the Fed.

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