forex

Relevance up to 12:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Exchange Rates 29.06.2022 analysis

 

In the middle of this month, USD/JPY broke a multi-year high and 135.19, reached in January 2002, and today the pair continues to develop an upward momentum.

In our previous reviews, we assumed that the divergence in the monetary policy rates of the Fed and the Bank of Japan is likely to increase, creating prerequisites for further growth of USD/JPY. In this case, the pair will head towards multi-year highs near 135.00, reached in January 2002. Our forecast was fully justified, and the set targets (Buy Stop 125.50. Stop Loss 124.40. Take-Profit 125.65, 126.00, 127.00, 128.00, 134.00, 135.00) were achieved. Moreover, the price rewrote the multi-year high of 135.19 and hit a new all-time high of 136.70 last week.

 

Exchange Rates 29.06.2022 analysis

 

USD/JPY is currently

Hot Trade: GBP/CHF

Hot Trade: GBP/CHF

Ivan Delgado Ivan Delgado 21.11.2020 08:42
The Daily EdgeThe first thing that comes to mind when analysing the currency space is how focused the market has become to the immediate future. In other words, short-term economic jitters due to stricter lockdowns in many parts of the world appear to be overriding any hopes for the longer-term vaccine-fuelled positivism and Trump’s presidential departure.To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4. The underperformance of the Aussie, despite positive economic news in the form of an upbeat Australian jobs report, is a telling sign of precisely the narrative I am referring to. The market remains very cautious to commit capital into risky assets at a time when the surge in COVID-19 cases globally may see economies take another hard hit.Very narrow ranges dominateAnother observation that reflects the convoluted state of affairs in the forex market includes the narrow ranges. Even if the Aussie was the weakest on Thursday, the net gains in the rest of forex indices were so minuscule, that the extension of the AUD bear trends became largely limited when compared to normal dynamics. In fact, by matching the EUR (strongest) vs the AUD (weakest), the EUR/AUD only rose 60 pips for the day, which is way below the daily ATR.This week has been unusually quiet in the forex market. It’s a major rarity to see the overall performance of currencies being encapsulated within excruciatingly narrow ranges of -/+ 0.10% through the London session. Remember, this session in the UK is characterised by being the most volatile for currencies given the amount of customers’ volumes. As traders we must remain patient and let the market come to us. This is one of those times when patience pays off.Hot trade of the dayIn this section, I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity based on the concepts I teach. My video analysis below elaborates on the logic behind the trade.Global Prime offers one account type. ECN only, for all clients.Ivan Delgado
What Markets To Focus On This Monday?

What Markets To Focus On This Monday?

Ivan Delgado Ivan Delgado 14.12.2020 02:22
The Daily EdgeThe Sterling has been given a major boost in the open of the Asian session as the UK and the EU agreed to extend post-Brexit trade talks beyond Sunday following a call between leaders earlier on Sunday. In a joint statement, Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it was "responsible at this point to go the extra mile".To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4. Amid the absence of fundamental catalysts elsewhere, the Pound continues to dominate the headlines. The volatility around the currency is not for the faint-hearted as liquidity in the market quickly dries up each and every time that a Brexit-related headlines alters the market perception towards a deal or not deal in the trade talks. Not the safest conditions for market makers.By going through my scan of the key movers in the currency space, aside from the perky Pound, the commodity-linked currencies have been the best movers as of late. The Euro, the Swissy and the USD are off to a rocky start this week, especially the latter, extending its multi-month downtrend whose origin dates back to the COVID-19 led spike from March this year. Quite a trend!Aside from the Brexit talks going down to the wire, the events to pencil in the calendar for traders this week include. The European and US PMIs, alongside US retail sales, all on Wednesday. The very same day, in the American afternoon, the biggest event in the form of the FOMC takes place. Early Thursday in Asia, volatility is expected to be rich as well with the release of the New Zealand GDP data, followed soon after by the Australian jobs report. Later on Thursday, in European hours, the BoE and the SNB will meet. Lastly, on Friday, the BoJ must be accounted for.Analysis of the Forex trendsIn my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.https://youtu.be/nNVGXm7rFTc20 Commodities available to trade at Global Prime.Ivan Delgado
The Watchlist: Analysis Of Forex Flows

The Watchlist: Analysis Of Forex Flows

Ivan Delgado Ivan Delgado 17.12.2020 02:02
Daily EdgeIn the last 24h, since I last sat down to write my take-away in the marketplace, the level of flow imbalances in the Forex market has gone down a notch. The Sterling takes the podium once again as the best performing currency even if the gap opened up against the G8 FX peers was minimal. The CAD, meanwhile, is the exception with sellers overwhelmingly in charge.To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4. In terms of the fundamental drivers playing a role in the last movements seen, this is what the script looked like. Early in Asia, the New Zealand Dollar was pressured lower in a move that dragged on through the London session. This occurred despite the release of the half-yearly update from the NZ Treasury saw GDP forecasts boosted and that for the peak unemployment rate lowered.As Europe came online, we learned some encouraging news out of Europe, with the positive French and German PMI prints for December. The Euro and the Swiss Franc, which often move in lockstep, reaped the most benefits as algo-buying activity followed suit in the immediate aftermath. However, we failed to see follow-through demand.The bullish moves in the EUR or the CHF proved legless, and certainly didn’t dispute the dominance of the Pound since early this week as hopes of a trade deal have definitively been brought back to be the forefront as the default narrative the market is buying into. Negotiations between the EU and the UK will likely stretch into the weekend again.Lastly, the one even we were all waiting for, even if the chances to see sustained volatility were pretty slim, came in the form of the FOMC. After all said and done, it proved to be a rather muffled affair. The lack of any new action from the FOMC was well reflected in how the market reacted. After an initial knee-jerk response in the US dollar, vol ended up being short-lived and legless. Fed’s Chairman Powell reiterated for the zillionth time that the Central Bank will remain in hyper-dovish mode with no rush whatsoever to raise rates.When it comes to trading opportunities, there was a phenomenal TT structure to play long CHF/JPY in Europe that ended up being a scratch trade. As I shift gears to the merits of a few selected currency pairs that currently offer for the best contextual settings to find opportunities, the video below invites you into my thoughts of the market for today.Analysis of the Forex trendsIn my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.Holding trades overnight? Check out Global Prime swap rates.
As USDX is Poised to Pop, What Happens to Gold?

As USDX is Poised to Pop, What Happens to Gold?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.12.2020 16:50
After awakening from its slumber last week, the USD Index may be in the early innings of a short-term breakout. Bursting with energy, the dollar basket closed (on Dec. 22) above its declining resistance line (although more data is needed to confirm a larger move).And to quote Francis Bacon, because “we rise to great heights by a winding staircase of small steps,” Tuesday’s ‘small step’ may be the beginning of an epic comeback.Please see below:In this week’s early trading, the USDX moved lower and then rallied back up, after touching its previous resistance line, which now appears to have turned into support. Despite the initial decline, the USDX is now more or less where it had started this week’s trading. Its ability to reverse the initial decline appears bullish.While the USDX traded lower-to-flat from Dec. 23 – 25, the price action still follows a familiar playbook: In 2018, the USDX dipped below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level before circling back with a vengeance (The initial bottom occurred in early 2018, with the final bottom not far behind.) Moreover, the 2018 USDX bottom also marked the 2018 top in gold, silver and the gold miners (depicted in charts 2 and 3 below).I previously wrote that the USDX was repeating its 2017 – 2018 decline to some extent. The starting points of the declines (horizontal red line) as well as the final high of the biggest correction are quite similar. The difference is that the recent correction was smaller than it was in 2017.Since back in 2018, the USDX’s bottom was at about 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the size of the correction, we could expect something similar to happen this time. Applying the above to the current situation would give us the proximity of the 90-level as the downside target.“So, shouldn’t gold soar in this case?” – would be a valid question to ask.Well, if the early 2018 pattern was being repeated, then let’s check what happened to precious metals and gold stocks at that time.In short, they moved just a little higher after the USDX’s breakdown. I marked the moment when the U.S. currency broke below its previous (2017) bottom with a vertical line, so that you can easily see what gold, silver, and GDX (proxy for mining stocks) were doing at that time. They were just before a major top. The bearish action that followed in the short term was particularly visible in the case of the miners.Consequently, even if the USD Index is to decline further from here, then the implications are not particularly bullish for the precious metals market.And as we approach the New Year and beyond, I expect a similar pattern to emerge.Why so?First, the USDX is after a long-term, more-than-confirmed breakout. This means that the long-term trend for the U.S. currency is up.Second, the amount of capital that was shorting the USDX was excessive even before the most recent decline. This means that the USD Index is not likely to keep declining for much longer.In addition, after last week’s drawdown in gold and the gold miners, the sun appears to be setting on the yellow metal. As ‘buy the dip’ morphs into ‘sell the rally,’ gold’s downtrend is likely to resume. Furthermore, the 2018 analogue signals that the SPX’s (S&P 500 Index) days are also numbered (If you analyze the chart above, you can see that the USDX bottom coincided with the SPX top.)Fundamentally, the USDX is also poised to pop.On Tuesday (Dec. 22), I highlighted the misguided narrative plaguing the U.S. dollar. In short:With liquidity spigots on full blast around the world, the U.S. isn’t the only region expanding its money supply (And remember, currencies trade on a relative basis.) In fact, the European Central Bank (ECB ) has more assets on its balance sheet than the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED).And after another update, the ECB’s spending spree has now reached a record €7 trillion (As a point of reference, the Dec. 22 ECB chart was relative to the FED, so both balance sheets were presented in U.S. dollars. The chart below depicts the ECB’s balance sheet in euros).Week-over-week, the ECB’s balance sheet increased by €59 billion. But the real story? The ECB’s total assets now equal 69% of Eurozone GDP – nearly double the FED’s 35%. So while EUR/USD clawed back some of its early-week losses (after the EU and the U.K. reached a Brexit agreement), its prior three-day downtrend (Dec. 18 – 22) is likely to continue (Remember, movement in the euro accounts for nearly 58% of the movement in the USDX.)Consequently, the implications for the precious metals market are not as bearish as everyone and their brother seems to tell you. Conversely, the forex market could provide the PMs and mining stocks with a substantial bearish push in the coming weeks – or even days.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Japanese Firm Scores BitLicense in New York for Yen Stablecoin

Japanese Firm Scores BitLicense in New York for Yen Stablecoin

BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. BeInCrypto (BeIn News Academy Ltd), we're writing about crypto. 30.12.2020 07:35
Japanese internet firm GMO has obtained approval from regulators in New York to issue a yen-pegged stablecoin. This makes GMO the 27th BitLicense recipient to be allowed to engage in virtual currency operations in the state. First Yen-Pegged Stablecoin in New York According to a press release by the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), GMO has been granted a charter to issue Japanese yen (JPY)-pegged stablecoins in the state. Based on the approval, the Tokyo-based firm will also be able to issue and redeem U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins as well. Like many Asian conglomerates, GMO has a history of significant involvement in the crypto and blockchain space. Indeed, the approval now adds another chapter to the company’s virtual currency foray with previous enterprises in the mining and trading arena. Commenting on the license approval, Ken Nakamura, CEO of GMO-Z Trust company remarked: We’re breaking ground with our move to issue the first regulated JPY-pegged stablecoin, which many see as a safe haven asset. But we are also pioneers and innovators in this space who envision building new applications of blockchain technology that transforms our relationship with traditional financial services. Apart from numerous crypto and blockchain pursuits, GMO also owns GMO Click, one of the largest forex trading platforms in the world. New Regulations in 2021 GMO’s BitLicense approval to issue stablecoins in New York is coming amid increasing scrutiny by regulators in major economies. Earlier in December, a proposed legislative piece by some members of the U.S. Congress to regulate stablecoins like banks caused rumblings within the cryptocurrency community. In Europe, many mainstream finance stakeholders including European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde continue to rail against private stablecoins. As previously reported by BeInCrypto, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) called for embedded supervision for stablecoins back in November. Indeed, the regulatory pushback has seen Facebook water down its ambitious Diem digital currency platform to appease regulators opposed to the project. The post Japanese Firm Scores BitLicense in New York for Yen Stablecoin appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Hot Trade: Time To Turn Bullish The USD?

Hot Trade: Time To Turn Bullish The USD?

Ivan Delgado Ivan Delgado 05.01.2021 02:12
Daily EdgeChart of the dayTo see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4. Oftentimes there is this constant debate. What matters the most, technicals or fundamentals? My personal stance in the subject is that while the latter is critical to understand the ‘whys’ of long-term trends, it is the technicals that show us the road map to get there, in other words, the ‘hows’.With that out of the way, in today’s write-up I want to solely concentrate on the technicals of the world’s reserve currency. Where the USD index (equally-weighted vs G8 FX) has landed, the way it’s gotten there (in terms of the volatility expansion seen) and the structure it’s formed, all suggest to me we may be in for a resurgence of USD buy-side flows this January.These are the reads I am getting in the USD index from a monthly chart perspective:The index is testing what’s arguably been the most determinant inflection point since the GFC in 2008.Every time this area has been tested, without exceptions, a major trend change has followed.The area is confluent with not one but two 100% projection targets. These measures are depicted via green arrows in the chart above.If history is any indication, January is by a large margin the best performing month of the year for the USD index (data since 1982).The over-extension to the downside has reached a 2-standard deviation (ATR-based) away from its central mean (13ema off the monthly chart).Analysis of the USD indexIn my video analysis below I lay out the rationale that leads me to think there are significant risks for bullish price action in the USD in coming months.Need a VPS? Check out Global Prime’s complimentary offers.
CAD/JPY could follow GBP/JPY lead and break higher

CAD/JPY could follow GBP/JPY lead and break higher

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 05.02.2021 09:02
Thanks to ongoing risk-on and reflationary trades, stock and crude oil markets extended their gains on Thursday, while safe-haven Japanese yen and gold sold off. The USD/JPY was among the best USD pairs, while other yen pairs also rallied – most notably, the GBP/JPY thanks to a hawkish Bank of England. Investors are now looking ahead to the publication of US jobs report on Friday. But we will also have the Canadian employment report released at the same time. So, the USD/CAD could be an interesting pair to watch when the reports are released. However, with the JPY selling off, I am keen to keep the focus on the yen pairs for now. Among them, the CAD/JPY is the next one to watch for a possible breakout, with the CAD finding good support from ongoing crude oil rally. A potentially stronger-than-expected Canadian employment report on Friday could be the trigger for a bigger rally. Before we discuss the CAD/JPY, lets discuss the GBP/JPY first. The latter staged a nice rally on Thursday rally from the support area shown on the chart after the Bank of England was less dovish than expected, causing the pound to rally across the board on Thursday. But with Brexit being avoided last month and the UK vaccinating more than 10 million people, the path of least resistance was always going to be to the upside for the GBP/JPY. So, I think more gains will follow for this pair. Luckily, the ledges in the private group got on board the rally before it took off as you can see from the before/after charts: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.comSource: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com I have shared the GBP/JPY trade setup that I posed to the private group, because the CAD/JPY is showing a similar setup as you will see below. The CAD/JPY has in fact started to move above the key resistance zone in the 81.50-82.10 range – and area which is now potentially going to be support: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com From here, the CAD/JPY could rise towards the point of origin of the initial breakdown in February 2020, at around 82.70 to 83.00, before potentially taking out the 2020 high at 84.75 next. It is important therefore that the bulls manage to defend the above support area for price to maintain its bullish bias and attract fresh buying as rates make higher highs and higher lows. The private group has been informed exactly how we are going to trade this setup.
EUR/CHF about to pop higher?

EUR/CHF about to pop higher?

Fawad Razaqzada Fawad Razaqzada 10.02.2021 02:00
The EUR/CHF is a forgotten currency pair and rightly so because it hardly moves. So why bother writing about it? Well, I think it is about to start trending higher again and become more active. Don't expect it to behave like Bitcoin or the Dow, but it should provide a good, stable, trade for the bulls given the ongoing "risk-on" sentiment. I have recently written bullish forecasts on the GBP/CHF due to Brexit being avoided etc., and the private group ledges have benefitted from this pair already, as you can see from the following before/after charts: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com But like the pound, the euro could now also climb higher, especially against haven currencies like the franc and yen as we hopefully head towards more normal times ahead later this year. Anyway, straight to the point: the EUR/CHF monthly is looking bullish to me: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com The monthly chart shows the long-term bullish trend has been defended for several months now and rates have broken above the bearish channel. The path of least resistance is to the upside again. It is a very slow-moving pair, so if you do trade it long, make sure you don't expect the moon, and too quick. But the key takeaway point from this article is that the forgotten currency pair could be about to pop higher and become mainstream for FX traders again.
Are S&P 500 and Precious Metals Bears Just Getting Started?

Are S&P 500 and Precious Metals Bears Just Getting Started?

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 04.03.2021 16:19
Scary selling yesterday? See how little the downswing has achieved technically, check out the other characteristics, and you‘ll probably reach the same conclusion I did. It‘s still about the tech getting its act together while much of the rest of the market is doing quite fine.The credit market confirm, as is obvious from the HYG:SHY ratio chart I‘m showing you. True, long-term Treasuries are under pressure, but I wrote on Monday that not even considerably higher rates would break the bulls‘ back. The dollar isn‘t getting far, and given tomorrow‘s non-farm payrolls, which are expected to be rather bad… Check instead another chart I am featuring today, and that‘s volatility – this correction appears in its latter stages as the crash callers „now, this quarter, whenever because it‘s allegedly overdue“, will be again surprised and backtracking in tone once the market gets what it wants: more liquidity.That was stocks, what about gold? No shortage of gloomy charts there, accompanied by various calls for a local bottom. The most bullish one (me included, talks about a possible bottom being made here, with the $1,700 to $1,690 zone able to stop the downside. I am though also raising the lower border of the Apr-May 2020 consolidation, which is around $1,670, as an even stronger support (over $40 lower than the above one) than the volume profile based one we‘re still at currently – and based on different tools, I am far from alone. The doomsayers‘ scary clickbaitish targets of $1,500 or $1,350 are in the minority, and about as helpful as calls for $100 silver before years‘ end. As I always say, let‘s be realistic, honest, and act with real integrity. People deserve better than to be played around through fear or greed.Silver remains in a solid uptrend, and so does platinum. Regardless of today‘s premarket downswing taking copper over 4% down as we speak, commodities are happily running higher in the face of „no inflation here, move along“ calls. How far is the Fed announcing yield curve control, or at least a twist program? Markets crave more intervention, and those calling for rate hikes to materialize soon, are landing with egg on their faces – mark my words, the Fed is going to stay accommodative longer than generally anticipated – have we learned nothing from the Yellen Fed?Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsYesterday‘s downswing didn‘t attract outstanding volume, and didn‘t overcome Fri‘s one. Regardless of the visit to the lower border of recent trading range, the bears would have to become more active to flip this chart bearish really.Credit MarketsThe key leading credit market ratio – high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) – hasn‘t really broken down yesterday. Just a consolidation that has an inverse head and shoulders shape on top. Of course, until the neckline is broken, there are no bullish implications, but I am looking for higher HYG:SHY values regardless.VolatilityYesterday‘s volatility – and put/call readings too – are very tame, and that detracts from the credibility of a significant downswing starting here considerably.TechnologyTechnology (XLK ETF) compared to the value stocks (VTV ETF) shows clearly once again the performance difference – tech still taking time and basing, while value sectors and high-beta segments keep doing largely fine. This view isn‘t one that‘s associated with the onset of real corrections – but with waiting for the tech to start behaving for new highs to be attainable once again.Gold and SilverGold still has a good chance to rebound higher, even though it missed yesterday‘s opportunity that would have resulted in a nice hammer candlestick. Nevermind, we have to live with what we have – and the support is still unbroken, not ruling out an upswing in the least. Yes, regardless of the deeply negative Force index which really wasted each prior opportunity to turn positive this winter. The metals would do well to get used to living with higher nominal rates really, when the real rates are little changed. Silver keeps doing much better, which is little surprising given the economic recovery, leading indicators not weakening, manufacturing activity doing fine – it‘s a versatile metal, both industrial and monetary after all. Compare how little has its Force index declined vs. gold – this is rather a bullish chart, unlike gold still searching for direction (i.e. without an established uptrend).CopperLet‘s compare the red metal (perched high, digesting steep Feb gains) to platinum and silver. I‘m featuring copper as the key determinant for precious metals, also given the positive Mar seasonality. The above chart fittingly illustrates the bull market‘s strength – and the waiting on gold to join.SummaryStock bulls have to once again take the trip to the 3,900 mark, and when that happens, depends on the tech the most. The S&P 500 internals and credit market performance remains sound, and new highs are a question of time (and stimulus).Gold remains stuck in its support zone, unable to rally, not breaking down. While copper is retreating today, the technical odds favor a rebound off this support. Once that happens, it would be though still too early to call for the new gold bull upleg to resume – much more would need to happen, such as the miners doing really well, and so on. But we‘ll get there.
Gold & the USDX: Correlations

When to trade Bitcoin

Korbinian Koller Korbinian Koller 16.03.2021 11:40
All markets are related. Looking for liquidity provides times when execution is guaranteed, and slippage minimized. Professionals tend to gravitate towards the futures and forex markets. These markets are leveraged and least regulated (no uptick rule for shorting the market).Stacking Liquidity, When to trade Bitcoin:Stacking Liquidity, GMT daily chart as of March 15th, 2021The chart above tries to show when these prime times occur daily to place one’s trades. For the long-term investor, these times guarantee good fills and good times to get in and out of their positions. For short- to mid-term trades, these times represent in addition opportunities to find themselves in transactions at the right time. To clarify, whenever a market opens around the globe, it means an abnormality, a possible imbalance. These imbalances can be the seed to a directional move more significant than at other times.If you visit Wall Street, you will find market makers on typical days trade the market open for about ninety minutes, then handing over operations to their assistants while enjoying elaborate lunches and returning for the last 90 minutes of the trading session. You want to focus alongside this more meaningful time in the market rather than being caught in the noise.It is stacking one’s odds that provide for a consistent outcome of profitable trading. In this case, we minimize risk by entering and exiting the market at Prime Time. Prime Time being liquidity stacked session overlaps (Asia+London and London+New York). BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, The weekend fake:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of March 15th, 2021That leaves us with weekend moves that have a lower probability of follow-through. Last weekend’s move to all-time new highs is a good example. Old highs got penetrated, but actual price behavior reveals once the Asia session starts on Monday.Short-term trading as such is directionally neutral for now. For the midterm, we plotted possible reentry zones in the daily chart above.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, A bright future:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of March 15th, 2021We find the long-term price expansion of Bitcoin still in place as long as prices do not runaway towards the upside exuberantly in fast motion.Even if you have high time frame entries or exits, it is wise to pick market times of a high degree of liquidity and strong participation.When to trade Bitcoin:It is essential to look at one’s desired trading instrument for abnormalities like the weekend night moves on Bitcoin. Position yourself before breakouts to such moves to avoid traps and volatility that requires larger stops, representing larger risk.Bitcoin has a relationship with the precious metal sector. Gold leading this sector typically shows price moves at the London session open (4:00 am EST), and as such, these are times to have an eye out for Bitcoin as well. Gold also is known to move at the U.S. premarket hours (8:30 am EST), and the actual NYSE opens at 9:30 am EST. Picking one’s battles timed to suggested hours in the first chart of this publication allows for risk minimization. Consequently, it provides a scheduled trading routine versus the risk of struggling to pay 24/7 attention and deal with a lot of price noise and fatigue risk.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 16th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
Why Retreating Yields Don‘t Lift All Boats

Why Retreating Yields Don‘t Lift All Boats

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 24.03.2021 15:09
Stocks declined but won‘t they run higher next? Tuesday‘s downswing changed precious little, and the Congressional testimony was a non-event. The key happening was in long-dated Treasuries, which rose yet again – the much awaited rebound is here, and brings consequences to quite a few S&P 500 sectors.The index is likely to advance, but the engine is going to be tech this time – not value stocks. I view this as a deceptive, fake strength in the bull market leadership passing over to value inevitably next. That‘s why I expect the S&P 500 advance to unfold still, a bit rockier than it could have been otherwise. This will hold true for as long as TLT is at least somewhat rising:(…) technology would recover some of the lost ground on rates stabilization. ...the $UST10Y move has been a very sharp one, more than tripling from the Aug 2020 lows.Technology though declined yesterday, and so did value stocks. Many markets went through selloffs yesterday, among commodities most notably oil. While nothing has substantially changed, we got a serious whiff of risk-off environment, pertaining precious metals too.Especially concerning was the miners underperformance, given that none of the moves indicated accumulation within the sector. Reason number two to expect PMs short-term vulnerability was ignorance of retreating yields that stretches a bit further below what can be viewed as a run of the mill PMs upswing correction. A short-term crack in the TLT decoupling dam that can still be reversed even though it doesn‘t look likely at the moment – better not to wave it off it though.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookRegardless of yesterday‘s setback, the outlook in stocks hasn‘t changed. Once the current corrective move is over and value reassumes leadership, expect the gains to be more pronounced than what we would experience rather shortly.Credit MarketsBoth high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) and investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) moved higher, and in the latter, the upswing was backed by a rising volume. The bond markets are coming back into favor, taking a little luster off the stock market appeal on the daily basis.Nowhere is yields influence better seen than in financials (XLF ETF), which give the impression of expecting futher retreat in yields, and haven‘t thus far reached any meaningful support. That would provide headwinds to the S&P 500 advance, especially as it translates into other cyclicals.Gold and SilverGiven the above chart, my yesterday‘s words ring even truer seeing Tuesday‘s closing prices:(…) Similarly to Mar 12, the precious metals upswing is being challenged – miners (GDX ETF) are underperforming. Today‘s session will tell whether we‘re witnessing consolidation, or a renewed rollover to the downside, the chances of which have risen yesterday.The bearish turn is just as visible in silver and silver miners, and it would be premature to declare it a bullish divergence. Given that silver bulls didn‘t attempt a rebound, and volume isn‘t consistent with capitulation, the risks to the downside materially increased.Precious Metals and CopperThe full precious metals sector got under serious pressure yesterday, and so did copper. Given the upswing having rolled over to the downside yesterday (especially when viewed through $HUI:$GOLD metrics), the bulls have to prove themselves through a stronger action than a dead cat bounce.SummaryS&P 500 upswing has better prospects of continuing than not, and the volatility and put/call ratio readings confirm we aren‘t in for a true setback really. The stock bull market is far from having made a top, and will continue grinding higher.Gold and silver decline going hand in hand with even weaker miners, means that the upswing was effectively ended – the only thing that can bring it back, is renewed miners outperformance and expected alignment of the yellow metal to Treasury yield moves, which is absent at the moment.
Gold Continues to Rebound, Despite Hawkish Powell’s Letter

Gold Continues to Rebound, Despite Hawkish Powell’s Letter

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 22.04.2021 15:52
The price of gold rebounded further, despite hawkish Powell’s letter to Senator Rick Scott.The second quarter of 2021 started much better than the first one for the gold bulls . As the chart below shows, the yellow metal rebounded from the late March bottom of $1,684 to $1,778 on Tuesday (April 20).Is it a temporary recovery in a long, downward slide or a return to the bull market that started in 2019? Well, it’s probably too early to determine whether that’s the case. What is, however, crucial here is that the yellow metal has managed to go up, despite some bearish news. The most important fact is that Powell has replied to the letter from Senator Rick Scott on rising inflation and public debt . The Fed Chair’s reply was rather hawkish , as he said that any overshoot of inflation target would be limited:We do not seek inflation that substantially exceeds 2 percent, nor do we seek inflation above 2 percent for a prolonged period (…) we are fully committed to both legs of our dual mandate – maximum employment and stable prices (…) We understand well the lessons of the high inflation experience in the 1960s and 1970s, and the burdens that experience created for all Americans. We do not anticipate inflation pressures of that type, but we have the tools to address such pressures if they do arise.Although Powell didn’t say anything surprising, his tone and emphasis on the commitment to stable prices could be interpreted as generally hawkish and, thus, negative for the gold prices. However, the yellow metal continued its rebound, which is encouraging .Implications for GoldSo why has gold been rising recently? Well, in a sense, the reason might be simple: the sentiment was so negative that the downward trend had to reverse. However, there are also some fundamental factors at play here. First of all, the rallies both in the bond yields and the US dollar have stalled . As the chart below shows, both the greenback and the real interest rates have receded from their March peaks..The declines in the bond and forex markets enabled gold to catch its breath. Of further importance is that they started falling when it became clear that the Fed would be more dovish and tolerant of higher inflation than was originally believed by the markets.Second, there has been a surge in global coronavirus cases which renewed a demand for the safe-haven assets, such as gold . Also, in the US, the number of confirmed cases and hospitalizations is increasing in some areas of the country, despite the vaccination progress. That is the effect of the new variants of the virus and the pandemic fatigue, i.e., many people tired of it have dropped their infection control measures.Third, inflation is accelerating , which is becoming increasingly visible. For example, the latest IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI shows that costs and charges have historically elevated in March.Supplier lead times lengthened to the greatest extent on record. At the same time, inflationary pressures intensified, with cost burdens rising at the quickest rate for a decade. Firms partially passed on higher input costs to clients through the sharpest increase in charges in the survey’s history.Commenting on the numbers, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:Raw material prices are increasing at the sharpest rate for a decade and factory gate selling prices have risen to a degree not seen since at least 2007. The fastest rates of increase for both new orders and prices was [sic] reported among producers of consumer goods, as the arrival of stimulus cheques in the post added fuel to a marked upswing in demand.What matters here is that the inflationary pressure is likely to remain with us for a while, despite the pundits’ claims that it’s triggered merely by temporary factors. In the 1970s, they were talking the same – until stagflation emerged and gold shined .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care
Janet Smoke and Mirrors

Janet Smoke and Mirrors

Monica Kingsley Monica Kingsley 05.05.2021 15:44
Weak overnight trading gave way to tepid European session with a predictable buying interest at the U.S. open - which fizzled out though after a few minutes. The tight range consolidation of late gave way to heavy selling as Janet Yellen talked rate hikes and inflation. Friday‘Kaplan trial baloon, and now this – she walked back her statement in the aftermarket, and stocks kept recovering since. Even the VIX upper knot doesn‘t look so spooky anymore, but the options traders aren‘t convinced. But how many such headline shocks have we seen recently? Capital gains tax plans, anyone? See how the market did next, shaking off the shock and rising on the Fed‘s continued liquidity wave next. Watch what they do, not what they say – and for now, the ingredients are still in place for further stock gains, and I made a good decision to buy yesterday‘s dip on signs of intraday stabilization.Even long-dated Treasuries dialed back their gains and inflation expectations receded on this perceived readiness to take that pesky „transitory“ inflation seriously. The dollar though had a hard time reversing Monday‘s losses that were virtually guaranteed once the 2021 mini-taper tantrum played out on Friday in currencies. The big picture is still the same – we‘re still living the good reflation, and even if it doesn‘t miraculously rekindle lasting inflationary flames, the print & spend magic recipe will be tried again until it does.Gold rose on the S&P 500 selloff only to reverse lower, but has anything materially changed? Miners keep doing better – they declined less, and the volume wasn‘t just there to the same extent as with the yellow metal.And the other commodities? I‘m known for incessantly beating the copper bullish drum, and also the oil one, and here we are with further gains added since my latest oil analysis. Silver might pull back a little here, but look for it to mirror the insatiable appetite for base metals and other commodities. Beyond the Green New Deal mandates, the monetary demand is set to help power the white metal higher.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookQuite a steep increase yesterday, and more upside price action returning SPX back into the range over the coming days, is needed to fix that dicey look in the daily indicators. Nothing unimaginable in this data-light week (don‘t look at non-farm payrolls), unless a black swan arrives. No signs thereof in the credit or currency markets, luckily.Credit MarketsPlunging in line with stocks, junk corporate bonds made an intraday recovery on high volume – their dip was also bought. And as the investment grade bonds maintained their opening gains as much as long-dated Treasuries did, the stage is being set for stocks to shake off yesterday‘s plunge.Technology and ValueHas technology found the bottom, or not? Semiconductors (XSD ETF) aren‘t overly positive, and a similar statement can be made about $NYFANG performance. Tech didn‘t join in much sturdier moves across the defensives, and didn‘t welcome retreating rates the way it used to earlier. Value stocks are the ones to rely upon as even financials (XLF ETF) rose on such a TLT move – but stellar S&P 500 gains require both parts of the stock universe to do well simultaneously.Gold and Miners Short-TermGold and miners need to stand their ground, and return to gains. It looks that miners would once again lead the yellow metal higher, now that nominal yields are biting less, and USD/JPY isn‘t exerting pressure.Gold and Miners Long-TermGold is struggling to overcome $1,800 for a few weeks already, but both the black lines shown in the above chart, support the eventual break higher. I assume that when that comes, it would just leave the bears in the dust.SummaryS&P 500 looks ready to continue its gradual recovery, and take on the all time highs next. A key enabler would be the tech heavyweights no longer standing in the way – tentative signs of their local bottom are appearing.Gold and miners suffered a minor setback yesterday, and the signals from related markets continue supporting further gains in spite of prolonged hesitation in the yellow metal lately.
How to Trade Oil and Gas (Part 2)

How to Trade Oil and Gas (Part 2)

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.09.2021 17:23
Oil, gas, and other energy news is everywhere, but how can you actually get started with investing in all this? Read on and find out.You might be thinking about using stocks, ETFs, CFDs, or futures to trade oil and gas. Well, picking the right instrument depends on many factors such as types of businesses, regions, risk profiles, and psychology.In the first episode we focused mainly on non-leveraged securities (stocks and ETFs) linked to the energy industry by showing some stable and/or fast-growing stocks and indexes. The second part is devoted to leveraged instruments such as CFDs and futures contracts.Contracts for Difference (CFDs) & Fraction of StocksA Contract for Difference (CFD) is an OTC (over-the-counter) derivative contract that is replicating the price moves of its underlying asset. Many retail brokers offer those contracts, allowing to trade a wide range of products (incl. forex, indexes, commodities and now stocks). Such OTC contracts were banned in the U.S. due to the fact that trades are not passing through regulated exchanges. In Europe they are allowed, even though a broker that offers them has to comply with a layer of regulations which were put in place by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) a few years ago. These regs were notably set to limit the leverage (as some brokers were previously offering up to 1:200 or 1:500 leverages), consequently increasing the margin requirements, and – this is, in my opinion, something that turned out to be their main advantage – to offer guaranteed stops!Indeed, those “guaranteed stops” switch the execution risk into the broker’s side. Since the execution of such stops is guaranteed at the set price, you don’t worry too much about any slippage... Another advantage of trading CFDs is that you can decide which fraction of your capital you want to allocate to your trade since those are non-standardized contracts. Therefore, if you are a beginner, you can trade mini (0.1) or even smaller micro-contracts (0.01). This specificity allowed many brokers to offer their retail clients the option to invest in a fraction of stocks. So, let’s say you’ve got a $5000 portfolio, and you want to buy an Amazon share that is currently trading at $3300.Thus, if you bought one full stock at that price, then it would mean that 2/3rd (66%) of your portfolio would be exposed to Amazon’s stock price fluctuations, and you wouldn’t have the possibility to get a good diversification ratio. But if you were able to buy a custom-made fraction of that share, then you could potentially decide that you just want to invest in 1/6th of that Amazon stock. By doing so, you would only have $550 of your portfolio exposed to Amazon’s stock price fluctuations, which is an 11% risk in equity instead of 66%! If you want to learn more about those contracts, you will find a lot of information on the Web… Since we are not affiliated with any broker, we won’t suggest any of them, as this would present an obvious conflict of interests. So, please do your own research prior to investing or trading.Futures ContractsFutures contracts are standardized (centralized) derivative contracts allowing traders to obtain fairly good liquidity when they place trades through regulated exchanges. Furthermore, they can trade with certain leverage, which implies some margin requirements. Given the fact that margin requirements which allow to trade full futures contracts may be a barrier to retail traders, the main exchanges have created new products to decrease their margin requirements, allowing traders to get smaller exposure and better size their position. This helps hedgers get a more accurate hedge when they cover their physical trades, notably with the use of currency E-Mini/E-Micro futures contracts to cover the exchange risk.So, it goes without saying that futures attract more and more players to take part in the markets.Regarding the energy sector in particular, at Sunshine Profits we set our focus on the main energy futures contracts, like West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil (CL) and Henry Hub Natural Gas (NG), but occasionally we may also look at the Brent Crude Oil (B) and the petroleum refined products such as Reformulated Blend-stock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) Gasoline (RB), Heating Oil (HO), Low Sulphur Gasoil (G), Carbon Emissions, etc.If you want to get some exposure to energies with less leverage, we are going to provide you with some ETF trackers which are highly correlated in the table below, with pros & cons:Energy Futures productsEnergy ETFs productsWTI Crude Oil Futures:CL (Exchange: CME Group)Higher liquidityNo management feesHigher leverage24-hour accessCross-marginingTighter correlation to the physical marketCrude Oil ETFs:USO/UCO/DBO/USL/SCO/OILK/OILLower liquidityLow management feeLow leverage and less riskEasy access to the marketLess maintenance (no forward-rolling)Read more: CME Group – ETF DatabaseBrent Crude Oil Futures:B (Exchange: ICE)Brent Crude Oil ETF:BNORead more: ETF DatabaseNatural Gas Futures:NG (Exchange: CME Group)Natural Gas ETFs:UNG/KOLD/BOIL/UNL/GAZRead more: ETF DatabaseRBOB Gasoline Futures:RB (Exchange: CME Group)Gasoline ETF:UGARead more: ETF DatabaseCarbon Emissions Futures:CC (CME Group)/EUA (ICE)Carbon Allowances ETF:KRBN/GRNRead more: ETF DatabaseEthanol Futures:CU (CME Group)Biofuel ETF:FUERead more: ETF DatabaseBroad Energy Futures:N/ABroad Energy ETFs:DBE/RJN/JJERead more: ETF DatabaseIn conclusion, in this series, we explored not only all the different ways to trade Oil and Gas but also a broader range of products that allow to take advantage of the energy commodity price moves depending on the risk you want to take when trading instruments with bigger or smaller leverage.In future articles, we might focus on the existing correlations between the above-mentioned futures contracts and some of their ETF equivalents, as well as study the price relationship between them.The vehicles I listed are definitely worth looking at. However, I also do the hard work and give you signals and ideas on entry and exit points in some of those instruments. That’s my job, that’s what I do best, and it’s that knowledge that makes the difference. It’s all found in the premium version. Benefit today and sign up to get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Forex broker Conotoxia Ltd starts its European expansion from Poland where its mother company Cinkciarz.pl is w well-known giant.

Forex broker Conotoxia Ltd starts its European expansion from Poland

FXMAG Team FXMAG Team 20.10.2021 09:49
From October 18th 2021 Polish based investors who want to open investment accounts through Cinkciarz.pl web portal have access to Polish-speaking representatives in Conotoxia Ltd. Branch in Warsaw and gained additional supervision of KNF in regards to investment service provided by the broker. The opening of a branch in Poland is evidence of the systematic development of the company. As part of our international expansion, we are not only developing our product offer and services, but also expanding our team in order to best realize the visions and ideas of Conotoxia Holding group and build a strong brand with global reach. But this is just the beginning of our plans. We want to offer Polish investors a real alternative when it comes to investing on a global level with a trusted broker with a very good reputation and with the backing of a global fintech like Cinkciarz.pl - says Grzegorz Jaworski, CEO of Conotoxia Ltd. Conotoxia LTD in response to the needs of Polish clients offered an alternative on the local investment market. The service is provided fully in Polish language from account opening, through support and transactions. The business model based on STP provides transparency and trust to clients. The introduction of an unprecedented low spread (DE40 from 0.7 and EURUSD from 0.5 with no additional commissions) allows trading at the best available price. In addition to the standard account, clients can also choose an account for an experienced client with a leverage of 1:100Funds are deposited in a Polish bank and deposits can be made in 4 currencies: PLN, EUR, USD and GBP. Expanded fintech of Cinkciarz.pl group allows for deposits and withdrawals from the company's proprietary currency portfolio. Moreover, buying and selling the most popular CFDs on cryptocurrencies is also available on weekends. Conotoxia LTD was recognized by the industry winning “The Rising star of the Year 2020 in forex/CD” Invest Cuffs award. Moreover, LMAX Global has offered all its existing Polish retail clients possibility to open Forex accounts through the portal Forex.Cinkciarz.pl Our main goal is still to promote informed investment through solid education and to familiarize our customers with tools and solutions that support Forex and CFD trading - says Daniel Kostecki, director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. The broker's clients have constant access to educational channels with free, extensive and regularly updated knowledge base about financial markets, including instructional videos, e-books, commentaries and other tutorial materials. In addition to education, security is also very important. Conotoxia Ltd. ensures the protection of clients through the dual supervision of CySEC and KNF and secures their funds through the Negative Balance Protection and Compensation Fund. Forex Trading is provided by Conotoxia Ltd., which has the right to use the Conotoxia trademark. Conotoxia Ltd. is regulated by CySEC (licence no. 336/17). CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Crypto or Forex

Crypto or Forex

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 03.11.2021 10:00
Cryptocurrency is gaining popularity among both novice and expert investors. It is all over the news, social media, and other forms of media these days. When it comes to XBT/USD, it has witnessed exponential growth. Those who invested in Bitcoin between 2010 and 2013 have amassed millions of dollars worth of fortune. However, what about the traditional market? Is foreign exchange still a viable investment option when compared to cryptocurrencies? Let us begin by defining both of them. The term "cryptocurrency" refers to a decentralized virtual currency that "transacts" on the blockchain. The main attraction of cryptocurrency lies in its ecosystem. Any entity or institution does not supervise it, and the operation is instantaneous and safe, as the entire blockchain must be modified to "forge" transactions. On the other hand, Forex is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world. It is open 5 days a week, runs 24 hours a day, and has a daily transaction volume of approximately US$6.6 trillion. The foreign exchange market includes banks, enterprises, financial institutions, retail investors, and all exchange currency institutions engaged in trading or profit-making.  Foreign exchange trading enables you to profit from the changes in the exchange rates of a wide variety of foreign currency pairings. Typically, foreign exchange is exchanged in pairs—for example, XBT/USD. You speculate on the currency exchange rate of a particular nation rising or falling in relation to the currency exchange rate of another country, and you open a position accordingly. What is the distinction between Forex and Cryptocurrency? The nature of foreign exchange transactions and cryptocurrency transactions are similar, and both belong to currency transactions. Foreign exchange transactions are usually carried out by brokers. You can open an account with direct market access and start investing. For instance, if you believe that Bitcoin will rise in value relative to the US dollar, you may invest in the XBT/USD pair. If the price goes in a favorable direction, you will earn a profit. But if the price moves in a way that is not beneficial to you, you will lose money. However, Forex accounts are strictly regulated. Therefore, it is more convenient for most traders and investors to trade through a broker, but the broker will charge a certain fee. How much the broker charges are determined by various factors, such as the trading pair you choose, the actual institutions involved, current market conditions, etc. Cryptocurrencies are usually purchased on exchanges. The exchange acts as an intermediary and profits from it. Unlike brokers, exchanges, as a single institution for buying and selling, usually have a fixed exchange rate. Since there is no need to negotiate and only need to comply with the terms of the exchange, this simplifies the process for users. Traditional currencies or fiat currencies can be linked to assets or other currencies or even not linked to them, but the government and the central bank govern them. The value of global currencies is determined by the commodities produced and their countries’ performance compared to other global players. On the other hand, cryptocurrencies were not born ten years ago, and they are not linked to a particular country or bank. Although they can be anchored to other assets, the majority are not. They rely on the combination of their utility and speculative beliefs to obtain value.  Which market is better for you? You're probably wondering which one I should pick now that you've grasped the differences between the two. Let us help you decide! Foreign exchange trading has a deeper foundation and apparent supervision. And cryptocurrency is a new and risky market. Therefore, whether you choose foreign exchange trading or cryptocurrency, you must understand that every transaction has its own risks and rewards, as well as its positive and negative sides.
OVERVIEW OF COVESTING

OVERVIEW OF COVESTING

Prime XBT Prime XBT 17.11.2021 09:37
Nearly everyone familiar with the world of cryptocurrency knows about the successful platform called ChainLink. Also called LINK, ChainLink is the fifth global cryptocurrency platform in terms of market capitalization.  The mission of this decentralized union is to enhance real-world data in connecting smart contacts. This platform has grown its worth by 100% since January 2020. If you are wondering what cryptocurrency platform to invest in gain as much as 100% returns, this article holds the answer. In this article, we will introduce you to Covesting, provide vital information about the platform, and guide you as to whether or not you should get involved in Covesting. What you need to know about Covesting Covesting is a financial technology (fintech company) operating globally and registered in Gibraltar.  The company handles a vast range of software needs and offers solutions to individual customers and institutions globally. Covesting is one of the international firms that received the Distributed Ledger Technology License by the Gibraltar regulatory authorities, which gives it a boost and assurance of great achievements in 2020. Traders and new users can connect on Covesting through the Copy trading or social trading feature. The copy trading or social trading feature allows users to identify expert traders on the platform. After selecting experienced traders, they can automatically copy their trading patterns. Copy-trading or social trading is a smart tactic for both traders and their followers to earn a profit. In practice, when a trade is profitable, the expert trader receives a share of the profit from their followers. Likewise, the followers can trade with fewer fees and greater ease even if they are a novice in trading crypto. Covesting also has a unique token called COV that traders on the platform can use for their activities. Read on to learn more about COV and other features in Covesting. PrimeXBT's partnership with Covesting Covesting is in partnership with a renowned and award-winning trading platform PrimeXBT. The firm won the 2020 ADVFN International Financial Awards as the Best Bitcoin Margin Trading Platform.  PrimeXBT offers Bitcoin trade, forex, indices, stocks, commodities, etc. on a global scale and has over 1 billion USD trading volumes. Other features on PrimeXBT 1: 100 cryptocurrency leverage Accumulated assets from different asset providers. A safe and secure platform for trade. Vast range of trading tools. How to use Covesting through PrimeXBT Users and traders can assess Covesting through PrimeXBT and create strategies for funding and trading in a transparent environment. Tracking records will be made visible to potential traders who can monitor the trade records of expert traders. The followers will see their capital investment and returns, and then decide whether or not to copy the trade. You can search traders through the Covesting area. From the search results, you can decide on a successful trader to follow and copy. Following a trade and copying the trading pattern helps you to earn passive income with little or no knowledge. The traders-followers pattern is also an avenue for the traders to build their reputation. It will earn them more profit if they know what to do. Is COV Likely to Skyrocket? Investors can use the Covesting token (COV) to invest in the platform. Investing with the token is very profitable when the value appreciates.  Those interested in serious investment and profits can avail themselves of the supply of token available on the platform. 18,000,000 tokens are in circulation out of a total of 20,000,000 tokens. Top investors referred to as 'strong hands' control 50% of the total token in circulation. Covesting differentiates its utilities into core and secondary token utilities. With an ambitious business goal and direction, Covesting is out to expand its frontiers in business and fintech. The firm aspires to obtain more partnership deals with other third-party trading platforms asides from PrimeXBT through the white-label licensing agreements. With its current partnership with PrimeXBT, the two companies want to integrate the COV token into PrimeXBT. The purpose of this integration is to reduce the trading fee, expand the success fee, and increase followers' limits. Reduced Trading Fee A reduced trading fee is achievable for strategy managers who hold COV. The deduction in trading fees will cover about 10%-100% of the COV token, although, the particular COV discount level has not been ascertained. Higher Success Fee Percentage Followers can earn a higher percentage of profits on their success fee when they stake with COV tokens. Presently, profits from closed trades on Covesting are shared between the platform, traders, and followers. The percentage distribution of profit is calculated depending on the current rates and market conditions, of which traders and followers will receive a greater percentage profit than the platform. Limits on Follower Numbers Covesting plans to enforce a limit on followers to keep their utility high. However, a trader can increase follower numbers when they start staking COV tokens. Token Burns Covesting will calculate and burn a specific amount from its monthly or quarterly generated fees. The token burn will exclude affiliate earnings, fee discounts, and other costs.  Covesting has an admirable customer base, and the COV has a strong medium-term potential. Traders can also trade COV on other platforms, including onKuCoin. Benefits of Covesting and its COV-token In summary, these are what you can benefit from trading on Covesting and using the COV token. Team of trustworthy holders. Higher token value. Reliable partnerships with other renowned platforms. Possibilities of utility and token burns. Recommended by analysts on TradingView. A community of dedicated followers. Legitimate, registered, and regulated platform Token is still under the radar Our Verdict Our review has shown that investing and trading on Covesting has many benefits. However, this should not be your final research before investing your funds in this platform.  Find out more about Covesting and COV before you invest and trade. To learn more about the COV token and trading, you can visit their website. Also, follow traders to learn about their trading strategy.  In all, our verdict is that Covesting is a very promising platform for investment and trading, but make sure you do not invest until you are convinced that it is the best platform for you.
PRIMEXBT: A REVIEW

PRIMEXBT: A REVIEW

Prime XBT Prime XBT 18.11.2021 14:45
Cryptocurrency traders are always seeking to top the trading list despite the competition. Most of these crypto traders have features that place them above others. One of such is PrimeXBT. The goal of the cryptocurrency marketers is to maximize sales, assets, and profits. Some exclusive features make PrimeXBT outstanding among other cryptocurrency platforms. These features also set the trading platform as an unequaled competition. The purpose of this article is to clarify, review, and educate readers on some of the significant characteristics of PrimeXBT that are distinct to others. After reading this article, you will be able to decide whether or not to sign up on PrimeXBT. WHY PRIMEXBT PrimeXBT is a bitcoin-based trading platform. It is also an award-winning platform for excellent service and creating the best crypto trading margin. The platform offers exchanges in stock indices, commodities, forex, and cryptocurrencies with up to 1000 times leverage. Below are some of the unique qualities and benefits that PrimeXBT offers. · Registration is easy and speedy on the platform. · Hassle-free withdrawals are based on bank-grade and address whitelisting. · Reliable, technical software · Leverage up to 100 times on commodities, crypto, and stock indices. · Gold, Forex, Silver has about 1000 times leverage. · Secured and fantastic trading engine · PrimeXBT has the option to stop loss and take profit. · A demo account is available for free. · Customer service is open for all live chats 24 hours, 7 days a week. · Learning materials are also available. · The trading platform has updated and new tools for crypto trade. The above-mentioned characteristics and factors make PrimeXBT a highly recommendable trading platform for new crypto traders. All these benefits also make the PrimeXBT attractive, satisfactory, reliable, and remarkable for experienced crypto traders. HOW TO GET STARTED PrimeXBT has the simplest registration process. Registration on PrimeXBT is easy and fast. You will be required only to give a valid email address and your country of residence. From there, you would be asked to proceed to confirm your email address. You will need to have a username and a secret code to enable you to log in another time. Once you have completed the registration process, you can proceed to make your initial deposit. HOW TO MAKE DEPOSITS PrimeXBT only allows payments to a BTC address. Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency for all registered accounts. The minimum deposit fee is 0.01 Bitcoin. Another means of the deposit is through a third-party channel called Changelly. All BTC deposits are immediately confirmed and converted to funds. You must transfer funds to your trading account upon deposit. Funds in the trading account will help you to save some capital separately for trading purposes. This is different from what you have in the trading account for margin. HOW TO MAKE WITHDRAWALS All withdrawals on PrimeXBT are processed once daily. Making withdrawal on PrimeXBT is also a simple process like the deposit. The system converts the Bitcoins to funds before you cash out. After that, the funds go to another BTC address. You may lose funds if you send them to other cryptocurrency exchange different from Bitcoin. The withdrawal window processes all withdrawals at once in a day on PrimeXBT. So, all pending withdrawals will wait until the rollover period. They will join the queue until the next rollover. All the payments from the platform are also officially addressed to the BTC addresses. TRADING ON PRIMEXBT Trading on PrimeXBT is subject to customers' preferences. The trading terminals are developed with excellent built-in software. They have a good number of trading indicators that include SAR, RSI, Ichimoku, and Parabolic, among others. All trading terminals are customized to suit the traders' satisfaction. The trading terminal has a good number of widgets like watch lists and charts. The reliability of the trading engine accounts to about 99.9%, which is known to be fast and error-free. Traders are positioned to enjoy maximum profit irrespective of market turnout. Traders can increase their profits and reduce all risks with the stop loss and take profit orders available on the platform. ASSETS There are about 50 distinctive traditional and digital assets that PrimeXBT offers. These assets create several means of making a profit on PrimeXBT, unlike other rival trading platforms. They include: · Different cryptocurrencies. For example, Bitcoin, Ripple, and Etherum. · Valuable metals. Gold and Silver. · Commodities. WTI Crude Oil, Natural gas, Brent. · Stock Indices and CFDs. Examples are ASX 200, S&P 500, and DAX 30. · Forex currencies. Like AUD, USD, JPY, etc. Considering the cryptocurrency trading market, PrimeXBT has the most attractive and exceptional value assets. REFERRAL Referrals on the platform also generate commissions for traders. Traders who refer customers to the site can generate up to 50 BTC. Traders who are on the leaderboard of the referral chain can even generate over 50 BTC. As the referral increases, the commission increases as well. The referral level and commission grow as each referred trader refer to other traders the platform. The trader who makes the first referral can benefit up to four levels of commission based on the growth of the chain. PrimeXBT also uses CPA offers for its traders. A trader can also enjoy ambassador relationships and personal customer agents as they continue to refer more clients to the platform. CUSTOMER CARE Through an online chat on a daily and weekly basis, customer service agents are available on PrimeXBT. They also give other help center guides, regular updates, and information through their blog. PrimeXBT also has social media platforms that are open to receiving customers' complaints and requests. The customer care representatives are trained and prepared to give any assistance needed to use the platform. SECURITY A secured transaction is one priority of PrimeXBT, which is why they take extensive measures to prevent the security threat of any trading account. PrimeXBT uses Cloudflare technology to ensure the security of all trading on its platforms. All withdrawal accounts are whitelisted and encrypted. The accounts are protected with two-step authentication. One way to test the security level of PrimeXBT is that no personal information is required. The simple step to register is to supply a valid email address, country of residence, create a username, and create a password. TURBO The company recently introduced a new and fantastic trading tool called Turbo. It is also a BTC trading platform with a slight difference from Prime XBT. Turbo works for short-term and synthetic Bitcoin transactions. Traders can select and book for any contract from 30 seconds, a minute or five minutes UP, and DOWN contract. They also order either a profit or loss contract with the new Turbo tool. This new tool is an innovative and exciting trend that makes PrimeXBT unrivaled. CONCLUSION PrimeXBT has won several awards like the ADVFN as the Best Bitcoin Margin Trading Platform. The platform also provides highly competitive features for its traders.  All these are summed in the extremely-fast registration process, rewarding tools, and a wide selection of modern and conventional assets.  If you are keen and concerned about secured and reliable cryptocurrency trade, PrimeXBT is a recommendation for you. PrimeXBT has the best, fast, and profitable assets and cryptocurrency trading. Study all the training tools available and register a free trading account on PrimeXBT to get started.
A GUIDE TO PRIMEXBT VERSION 2.0

A GUIDE TO PRIMEXBT VERSION 2.0

Prime XBT Prime XBT 18.11.2021 17:27
 Just recently, PrimeXBT released an upgraded version, called the V2.0. This version brought about nothing short of a revolution to the trading platform, including greater access to the platform, improved interface, and enhanced visuals. V2.0 also supports Ethereum (ETH) and digital currency-based margin accounts. This is a guide to everything you should know about PrimeXBT V2.0, and all the upgrades you find on this trading platform, including the USDT, USDC, and ETH margin accounts. INTRODUCTION TO PRIMEXBT V2.0 When you visit PrimeXBT's website, you will get a welcome message if it is your first visit since the upgrade. Do a quick read of the new additions and features noted in the text. The dashboard, which has been upgraded and reorganized, consists of the main account from where you can view your margin accounts, Covesting details, available wallets, account followings, and other relevant details. VERSION 2.O MAIN PAGE AT A GLANCE You have all relevant information immediately you hit the main page, including how to make a withdrawal, deposit, or check your balance.  From the main page, you can deposit funds, make withdrawals, monitor your balance, and do so much more. You can also set up a different account for ETH, USDT, and BTC right from the main page. Funding your account is swift and easy; it starts by depositing funds to all your crypto addresses connected to your dashboard. The next step is to move your crypto deposit from your wallet to all the margin accounts you want to send it. INTRODUCING NEW FEATURES: USDT, USDC, AND ETH ACCOUNTS AND CURRENCIES Do you know what's hot? It is a fact that users now have more options apart from the Bitcoin margin trading that makes PrimeXBT famous. Once you're logged in, you can trade using new currencies like USD Coin, Ethereum, or Tether. PrimeXBT has everything in place for smooth operations as the upgrades and additions are well integrated into the accounts, site infrastructure, and trading engine. New Signings to PrimeXBT can enjoy all these features when they set up a free account and begin trading with little deposit. A GUIDE TO TRADING WITHIN MARGIN ACCOUNTS ON PRIMEXBT V2.0 With V2.0, you can trade with separate account details for each of your margin accounts. You can also trade with any CFD available on PrimeXBT V2.0., including stock indices, forex, commodities, crypto, and about 46 others.   BREEZE THROUGH ACCOUNTING AND TAX REPORTING WITH THE NEWLY-ADDED REPORTS SECTION A visit to the report section newly added to the V2.0 PrimeXBT website holds in-depth account information, including transaction history, basic account details, and movement of funds. All these features will make it easier to keep up with tax and other accounting activities. GET NEW USERS TO PRIMEXBT AND GET REFERRAL BONUSES WITH NEW CURRENCIES  If you have been referring users to PrimeXBT or you have plans of starting, there's a currency tweak you should know. The referral site has undergone some updates, particularly the addition of those new currencies. When you refer a person to PrimeXBT, you will receive your commission in the trading currency that the new user chooses to use in their trade. You can share PrimeXBT referral links on social media groups and amongst friends and family. If you leverage these links, you can get more revenue apart from your trading profit. You can get as much as 20% on commission when you leverage PrimeXBT's referral system. V 2.0 COVESTING COPY TRADING GOT REALLY SMOOTH If any section was left out of the upgrade, it wasn't the covesting module, which got upgraded to support USDT, ETH, and USDC, alongside the exiting Bitcoin trading currencies. PrimeXBT's copy trading system brings strategy managers and followers together for a profitable trading operation and mutual profitability. Followers can copy the trades of strategy managers, helping them to earn more. In return, followers will give a percentage of their earnings to the strategy managers that helped them trade successfully. This interaction has helped both followers and top traders to earn millions trading on PrimeXBT. The platform's ranking system showcases every trader and their rankings on the global leaderboard, alongside their trade profits, losses, wins, and other relevant information. You will also find a 5-star rating system for trades. With the introduction of PrimeXBT V2.0, followers and strategy managers can carry out their interactions with any of the new and existing currencies (USDC, ETH, USDT, and BTC).  Finally, on Covesting copy trading, we find the COV utility token that traders can explore to get more benefits from the copy trading module. BLOG, TURBO, CUSTOMER SUPPORT, AND MORE FROM PRIMEXBT  On PrimeXBT you can leverage Turbo for better positioning in the trade market, and access market information, news, and the company offers on the official blog. Many guides and articles exist on the company blog to guide traders, offer trading tips, and answer relevant questions. TradingView integration offers an analysis of trading strategies, risk assessment, and management, etc. PrimeXBT has 24-hour live customer support with helpful staff available to answer your questions and offer their help. The help center also has a lot of tutorials and helpful materials. PrimeXBT is solid and secure; with bank-level security and infrastructure, accounts have address whitelisting and two-factor verification. Since its creation, the platform has not been a victim of hacking, thanks to the secure wall structure. With a near 100% uptime, there's little wonder why PrimeXBT keeps receiving excellence awards. V2.0: MINIMUM RISK, HIGHER SUCCESS WITH STABLECOINS AND ADVANCED TOOLS PrimeXBT V2.0's advanced trading tools contain everything traders need to minimize risk and trade successfully. Capitals are protected by top industry slippage and stop-loss orders. Opportunities don't get any higher than this with leverage and diverse market access. With the new USDC and USDT, traders are safe from the possibility of base currency account volatility that is common with Ethereum and Bitcoin. Many users requested this upgrade, and PrimeXBT V2.0 provided it, with many more features. Traders are set for a complete trading experience within one platform with all these tools. PRIMEXBT IS THE BEST PLATFORM TO TRADE CFDs  If the awards and user reviews have not won you over yet, the PrimeXBT V2.0 should do it.  What do you say to trade on a renowned platform and leveraging the most advanced tools to trade with USDT, BTC, ETH, and USDC for margin accounts? May we add that you can trade forex, oil, gold, Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and other popular traditional and digital markets? If you say yes, then sign up for PrimeXBT V2.0 today!
COT: Solid gold buying raising short term concerns

COT: Solid gold buying raising short term concerns

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 22.11.2021 11:35
Summary:  This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 16. The report shows the reaction to the US inflation shock on November 11 which among others drove strong demand for gold and more surprisingly a reduction in the dollar long. Also another strong week for most agriculture commodities with positions in coffee and KCB wheat hitting fresh multi-year highs Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 16. A week where the market responded to the US inflation shock on November 11 by sending  the dollar up by 2% to fresh high for the cycle while 10-year breakeven yields jumped 20 basis point a decade high. While bond market volatility jumped, stocks held steady with the VIX showing a small decline. The commodity sector was mixed with gains in precious metals and not least grains and soft commodities helping offset weakness across the energy sector.  Commodities Hedge funds raised their total commodity exposure, measured in lots, across 24 major futures contracts by the most since July. Driven by continued strong price action across the agriculture sector and more recently also precious metals in response to surging inflation. These sectors saw all but one market being bought while the energy sector were mixed with continued selling of crude oil only being partly offset by demand for gasoline and natural gas. Energy: Crude oil’s four week slide resulted in the biggest weekly reduction since July, and this time, as opposed to recent weeks, it was WTI that led the reduction with a 10% cut to 307k apart from a deteriorating short-term technical outlook also being driven the prospect of a US stockpile release to dampen domestic gasoline prices. Brent meanwhile saw its net long slump to a one-year low at 221.5k lots, and during the past six weeks the net length has now slumped by one-third, a reduction which gathered momentum after the late October failure to break the 2018 high at $86.75, now a double top. Crude oil comment from our daily Market Quick Take: Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSDEC21) opened softer in Asia after Friday’s big drop but has so far managed to find support at $77.85, the previous top from July. The market focus has during the past few weeks shifted from the current tight supply to the risk of a coordinated reserve release, fears about a renewed Covid-driven slowdown in demand and recent oil market reports from the EIA and IEA pointing to a balanced market in early 2022. Having dropped by around 10% from the recent peak, the market may have started to conclude that a SPR release has mostly been price in by now. Metals: Another week of strong gold buying has now raised the alarm bells given the risk of long liquidation should the yellow metal fail to hold onto its US CPI price boost above $1830. Last week the net long in gold reached a 14-month high at 164k lots and the speed of the accumulation, especially the 70% jump during the past two weeks alone carries, will be raising a red flag for tactical trading strategies looking for pay day on short positions should support give way.  Gold extended Friday’s drop below $1850 overnight, before bouncing ahead of key support in the mentioned $1830-35 area. The risk of a quicker withdrawal of Fed stimulus supporting real yields and the dollar has for now reduced gold's ability to build on the technical breakout. However, the price softness on Friday helped attract ETF buying with Bloomberg reporting a 10 tons increase, the biggest one-day jump since January 15. A second week of silver buying lifted the net to a four-week high at 35.9k lots, but still below the May peak at 47.8k lots. Copper’s rangebound trading behavior kept the price and the net long unchanged. The latter due to an even size addition of both new long and short positions. Agriculture: Broad gains across the grains market lifted the combined long across the six most traded contracts to a six-month high at 560k lots. Buyers returned to soybeans after the net long recently hit a 17-month low, the corn long was the biggest since May while the KCB wheat long at 60.6k lots was the highest since August 2018. Supported by an increasingly worrying supply outlook, coffee speculators lifted their net long by 16% to a five-year high at 55k lots. Cotton and sugar longs also rose while short-covering helped halve the cocoa net short. More on the reasons behind the current strength in wheat and coffee, and agriculture in general can be found in may recent update: Agriculture rally resumes led by coffee, wheat and sugar ForexIn a surprise response to the US inflation shock on November 11 speculators ended up making a small reduction in their overall dollar long against ten IMM futures and the Dollar index. Selling of euro in response to the 2.4% drop and a 161% increase in the sterling short to a 17 month high ended up being more than off-set by the buying of all other major currencies, most notably JPY and CHF. The result being a fifth weekly reduction in the dollar long to $21.3 billion, now down by 17% reduction from the near 30-month high reached during October. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
COT: Speculative positioning ahead of Fridays omicron dump

COT: Speculative positioning ahead of Fridays omicron dump

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 30.11.2021 18:42
Commodities 2021-11-30 10:30 Summary:  Futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 23. While a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since last Tuesday, it is nevertheless interesting, not least considering the report encapsulated the market reaction to last weeks renomination of Fed chair Powell which helped send both treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher, as well as the oil market reaction to the coordinated SPR release announcement. Finally, it also gives us an idea about the level of positioning ahead of Friday's omicron related sell off Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 23. The report normally released on Friday's was delayed due to last weeks Federal holidays, and while a lot of water has flowed under the bridge, its nevertheless interesting. Not least considering the report encapsulated the market reaction to last weeks renomination of Fed chair Powell which helped send both treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher, as well as the oil market reaction to the coordinated SPR release announcement. Also it gives a good idea about how funds and speculators were positioned ahead of the sharp risk off to the new omicron virus variant. Commodities The commodity sector saw sizable shift out of energy and metals into the agriculture sector where all 13 futures contracts covered in this update saw net buying. During the week the energy sector lost 2.1% while precious metals dropped 4.3% after gold broke below key support at $1830. A 1.5% rise in copper was not enough to convince speculators who cut their net long by 20%. Most noticeable however was the strong buying seen across the agriculture sector, with strong demand and weather worries more than offsetting the headwind caused by the stronger dollar. Energy: Crude oil, both Brent and WTI, were sold ahead of the coordinated SPR release announcement last Tuesday. The combined net long dropped by 14k lots to a one-year low at 514.6k lots. The loss of price momentum during the past few months has, despite an overriding bullish sentiment in the market, been driving the reduction, and following Friday's 10% price collapse these traders have been rewarded for sticking to the signals the market was sending instead of listening to bullish price forecasts. Hedge funds are not "married" to their positions hence their better ability to respond to changes in the technical and/or fundamental outlook.Metals: Having increase bullish gold bets by 65k lots during the previous two weeks, funds were forced to make 45k lots reduction last week in response to the Powell renomination sending gold sharply lower and below support in the $1830-35 area. Speculators have been whipsawed by the price action in recent weeks and it helps to explain why they are in no mood to reenter in size despite renewed support from Covid19 angst. Silver's 6% sell off during the week helped trigger a 17% reduction in the net long to 30k lots while in copper a small price increase was not enough to stem the slide in net length. Following seven weeks of selling, the net length has dropped by 64% to 19.5k lots, a 13-week low. Months of rangebound behaviour has reduced investor focus, and until we see High Grade Copper make an attempt to break its current $4.2 to $4.5 range, the level of positioning is likely to remain muted. Agriculture:  More concerned with other drivers such as weather, strong demand and supply chain disruptions helped trigger across the board buying of all 13 futures contracts split into grains, softs and livestock. The combined long held across these contracts reached a six-month high at 1.13 million lots, representing a nominal value of $43.5 billion. Buying was broad with the top three being corn, sugar and soybeans. Elsewhere the net long in Arabica coffee reached a fresh five-year high at 58k lots and KCB wheat a four-year high at 65.6k lots. UPDATES from today's Market Quick TakeCrude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) turned sharply lower in early European trading as the mood across markets soured on renewed concerns about the omicron virus strain. This after Moderna’s head told the Financial Times that existing vaccines will be less effective at tackling omicron and it may take months before variant-specific jabs are available at scale. The news come days before the OPEC+ group of producers meet to discuss production levels for January. Brent crude oil already heading for its biggest monthly loss since March 2020 trades below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year, a sign that more weakness may lie ahead, thereby raising the prospect for OPEC+ deciding to pause or perhaps even make a temporary production cut. Gold (XAUUSD) received a muted bid overnight in response to the omicron virus comments from the head of Moderna (see oil section above). In addition, comments from Fed chair Powell helped reduced 2022 rate expectations from three to two after he said the omicron virus posed risks to both sides of the central bank’s mandate for stable prices and maximum employment. Despite this development together with softer Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, gold continues to struggle attracting a safe-haven bid. Silver (XAGUSD) looks even worse having dropped to a six-week low on weakness spilling over from industrial metals. Forex:Broad dollar buying following Fed chair Powell's renomination helped drive a 20% increase in the greenback long against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar index to $25.4 billion and near a two-year high. All the currencies tracked in this saw net selling with the biggest contributors being euro (12.6k lots), CAD (11.8k) and JPY (4.1). The net short on the latter reached 97.2k lots or the equivalent of $10.6 billion, a short of this magnitude helps explain the strength of the sell off in USDJPY since last Thursday when safe haven demand picked up as the omicron news began to spread. Despite hitting a 16-month low last week the euro short only reached 12.6k lots, a far cry from the -114k lots reached during the panic month of February last year when the pair briefly traded below €1.08. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
FX Update: Powell is now an inflation fighter, not a punchbowl spiker

FX Update: Powell is now an inflation fighter, not a punchbowl spiker

John Hardy John Hardy 01.12.2021 16:30
Forex 2021-12-01 15:25 4 minutes to read Summary:  Fed Chair Powell cemented recent evidence that the Fed has changed its stripes from a punch bowl refiller for the economy and the labor market to an inflation fighter at large. The market is finding it tough to absorb this message, given the recent market choppiness and virus distractions, but interesting that the US dollar has not found more strength on this momentous pivot. FX Trading focus: Hawkish broadside from Powell Fed Chair Powell cemented the impression that the Fed has shifted firmly into inflation fighting mode with an appearance yesterday before a Fed panel. The rhetoric was direct and of a make-no-mistake variety. Powell said that the end of balance sheet expansion would likely wind down a few  months sooner than originally foreseen, even with the current omicron variant of covid concerns. He also spelled out that it is probably time to retire the word “transitory” when discussing inflation, ad said that the risk of higher inflation has increased. Perhaps most interesting was a comment that persistent higher inflation brought a risk to getting the labor market back to where it was pre-covid. It is crystal clear at this point that the Fed has pivoted to inflation-fighting and tightening and will move in that direction as quickly as it can until the inflation numbers improve markedly. Of course, the market was already adjusting to clear signs that the Fed is moving into a far more hawkish stance early last week, only to be sidelined viciously by the omicron variant worries in recent days. Were it not for that interlude, Fed expectations would likely be at new cycle highs as yesterday’s signals from Powell make the Fed shift as clear as day. As it is, we have only clawed back a majority of the 2022 hikes priced in pricing of Fed rate hikes, still some 8 basis points to go for end of year Fed pricing (the “omicron discount” being perhaps 15 basis points or more?). The two curious things are that the US yield curve continues to viciously flatten and the market continues to price the terminal Fed rate for the coming hiking cycle at 2.00%. The inability for the longer yields to lift higher recently may be reining in the USD upside for. The other indicator besides yield-curve shifts that is making waves here on my radar screen of financial conditions is the measure of corporate credit, where spreads have blown wider, as discussed over the last couple of episodes of the Saxo Market Call podcast. The bluntness from the Fed yesterday may have driven the particularly bad day for junk bonds as the new style from the Fed could lead investors in the riskiest debt to conclude that they may be allowed to twist in the breeze down the road if inflation levels stay high, rather than receiving endless bailouts that keep zombie companies in business and able to forever roll forward their debts. We are set up for an interesting 2022 that will likely look very different from 2021. The shift in Fed rhetoric will make the market extra-sensitive to US data and developments that impact inflation, from energy prices, to the CPI/PCE data itself and the average hourly earnings data perhaps even more than the usual nonfarm payrolls change focus. Today’s Beige Book could be interesting for anecdotal evidence from interviews with companies on their impression of supply constraints, wage adjustments and issues finding qualified workers, etc. Today’s November ADP Payrolls was another strong 500k+ as expected. Chart: USDJPYUSDJPY was handcuffed by developments yesterday – on the one hand with the USD supported by a rise in Fed expectations, but on the other hand, JPY traders finding no fresh reason to bid up the JPY as the long end of the US yield curve remains pinned at quite low yields and there has been no shift in the Fed’s “terminal rate” – where the market sees the Fed rate hike cycle peeking out. So the price action bobbed well back above the 112.73 range pivot level that was broken yesterday, but has a steep wall to climb to threaten the 115.00+ cycle highs again, something that would likely require the entire Fed yield curve to lift, and more aggressively than expectations for policy normalization elsewhere. Source: Saxo Group Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strengthAgain, the market is finding the reaction function increasingly difficult to the recent jolts in inputs. Note the huge momentum shift in SEK, where the market overdid the recent squeeze, but the strength there will likely only improve once the euro bottoms and the outlook for EU yields and fiscal improves. Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Well entrenched trends are few and far between, but the EURCNH and EURCHF downtrends stand out, with the latter’s lack of volatility after recent direction changes remarkable. The Swiss franc does well as a safe haven and does well because the SNB can’t be seen weakening the currency when inflation pressures are rising. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1500 – US Fed Chair Powell, Treasury Secretary Yellen to testify before House panel 1500 – US Nov. ISM Manufacturing 1530 – DOE’s Weekly Crude Oil and Fuel Inventories 1900 - Fed Beige Book 0030 – Australia Oct. Trade Balance
Awaiting US CPI And Speaking Of Disney and Uber. SEK And PLN As Central Banks Moves

COT: Specs exit commodities on Omicron and Fed worries

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen 06.12.2021 12:33
Commodities 2021-12-06 10:50 Summary:  Futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 30. A week that encapsulated the markets very nervous reaction to the Omicron virus news as well as Jerome Powell's increased focus on combatting inflation. While global stocks and US long end yields dropped, a 7% correction in the Bloomberg commodity index helped trigger the biggest and most widespread hedge fund exodus since February 2020. Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. Link to latest report This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 30. The reporting week encapsulated the markets very nervous reaction to the Omicron virus news as well as Jerome Powell confirming inflation is no longer being transitory. His comments to the Senate banking committee raised expectations for faster tapering with the first full 0.25% rate hike now priced in for July next year. The US yield curve flattened considerably with virus related safe-haven demand driving down the yield on 10-year US treasury notes by 22 basis point. Global stocks slumped with the VIX jumping 8%. Hardest hit, however was the commodity sector after the Bloomberg commodity index slumped by 7%, thereby triggering the biggest and most widespread hedge fund exodus since February 2020. Commodities Hedge funds responded to heightened growth and demand concerns related to the omicron virus, and the potential faster pace of US tapering, by cutting their net long across 24 major commodity futures by 17% to a 15-month low at 1.8 million lots. This the biggest one-week reduction since the first round of Covid-19 panic in February last year was triggered by net selling of all but three livestock contracts. Energy: Hardest hit was the energy sector where renewed demand concerns sent the prices of WTI and Brent down by more than 15%. In response to this, hedge funds accelerated their pace of futures selling with the combined net long slumping by 90k lots to a one-year low at 425k lots. The loss of momentum following the late October peak has driven an eight-week exodus out of oil contracts, culminating last week, and during this time the net length has seen a 35% or 224k lots reduction. Potentially setting the market up for a strong speculative driven recovery once the technical and fundamental outlook turns more friendly.Latest: Crude oil (OILUKFEB22 & OILUSJAN21) trades higher following its longest stretch of weekly declines since 2018. Today’s rise apart from a general positive risk sentiment in Asia has been supported by Saudi Arabia’s decision to hike their official selling prices (OSP) to Asia and US next month. Thereby signaling confidence demand will be strong enough to absorb last week's OPEC+ production increase at a time when mobility is challenged by the omicron virus. For now, both WTI and Brent continue to find resistance at their 200-day moving averages, currently at $69.50 and$72.88 respectively.  Metals: Gold was net sold for a second week as speculators continued to reduce exposure following the failed breakout attempt above $1830. With Fed chair Powell signaling a change in focus from job creation to fighting inflation, sentiment took another knock, thereby driving a 13.7k lots reduction to a four-week low at 105k lots. Industrial metals also suffered with the net long in HG copper slumping by one-third to a three-month low at 13.4k lots. Copper’s rangebound trading behavior since July has sapped hedge funds involvement with the current net length a far cry from the 92k record peak seen this time last year.Latest: Gold (XAUUSD) received a small bid on Friday following mixed US data, but overall, it continues to lack the momentum needed to challenge an area of resistance just above $1790 where both the 50- and 200-day moving averages meet. Focus on Friday’s US CPI data with the gold market struggling to respond to rising inflation as it could speed up rate hike expectations thereby putting upward pressure on real yields which are inverse correlated to gold's performance.  A full 25 basis point rate hike has now been priced in for July and the short-term direction will likely be determined by the ebb and flow of future rate hike expectations. Agriculture: The whole sector with the exception of livestock took a major hit, just one week after funds had increased bullish bets on grains and softs by the most in 15 months. Both sectors suffered setbacks of more than 5% with recent highflyers like wheat and cotton taking big hits. As mentioned, selling was broad and led by corn, soybeans, sugar and cocoa, with the latter together with palladium being the only two contracts where speculators hold an outright short position.This week the grain market will be focusing on weather developments in Australia and its potential impact on the wheat harvest, as well as the monthly World Agriculture Supply & Demand report (WASDE) from the USDA.  Forex In forex, speculators reacted to renewed virus concerns by increasing bullish dollar bets against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index to an 18-month high at $27.9 billion. Speculators were buyers of JPY (18.4k lots or $2 billion equivalent) but sellers of everything else, including euros (6.8k) and the two commodity currencies of AUD (16.9k) and CAD (10.9k). These changes resulting in the aggregate dollar long rising by $2.3 billion. In terms of extended positioning, a euro short at 23k lots was last seen in March 2020, the GBP short at 39k lots was a two-year high while the 60k lots MXN short was the highest since March 2017. What is the Commitments of Traders report? The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class. Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and otherFinancials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and otherForex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators) The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are: They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
How to use the 5/20 trading strategy in Romania?

How to use the 5/20 trading strategy in Romania?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 23.12.2021 10:28
The 5/20 trading strategy is one that international investors have used for years, but it's recently started to gain more popularity among locals. It's because of how well suited the rules are for forex trading Romania, especially given today's market conditions. The 5/20 Trading Strategy works on a simple premise - any stock under $5 with an average volume of at least 500,000 shares per day should be bought if the MACD line crosses above the signal line. Then once you're holding them, all you need to do is wait until there's sufficient volume before selling them off. The general idea behind this strategy is that small caps tend to see wild volatility throughout their lifetime, so they may rise or fall in price even without any significant news. But by using the 5/20 trading strategy, you can limit your downside risk and still capture any upside potential that these stocks may offer. And since Romania is home to so many small-cap companies, this strategy can be exceptionally profitable here. There are a few things to keep in mind when using the 5/20 Trading Strategy in Romania. The 5/20 Trading Strategy can be used in Romania with great success. The strategy is simple to understand and easy to execute. To use the 5/20 Trading Strategy in Romania, you will need to follow these steps: 1. Look for stocks that are trading near their 52-week lows. These stocks will likely be undervalued and provide a good opportunity for investors to make a profit. 2. Identify the five strongest stocks in the market. These stocks will have the best chance of increasing in value over time. 3. Invest 20% of your capital in the five strongest stocks in the market. These stocks will provide stability and growth potential for your portfolio. 4. Invest 80%of your capital in the 20 best stocks in the market. These stocks will provide a large amount of growth for your portfolio and should help bring substantial returns on investment. 5. Rebalance portfolios every 3 to 6 months. This step ensures that the 5/20 Trading Strategy is working at peak efficiency and not allowing any of your investments to become too dominant over one another. Some things to keep in mind: Trading on Romanian exchanges can be pretty tricky if you live outside of Romania or do not have a Romanian bank account because the country has stringent money laundering laws to keep financial crime at bay. It's particularly true if you wish to open a new account with a bank which may take several weeks to process. The 5/20 trading strategy can be used to significant effect in Romania. It's a hedging strategy that uses two futures contracts with different expiration dates, usually five and twenty days away from the current date. The goal of the strategy is to lock in a guaranteed profit by buying the nearer-dated contract and selling the further-dated contract simultaneously. If prices move in your favour, you make money on both contracts; if prices move against you, you lose money on the nearer-dated contract but make it back on the more distant one. The 5/20 trading strategy is often used when there is market uncertainty, as it gives traders a way to fix their losses and guarantee a profit on a trade. Bottom line This strategy is excellent for making money and a perfect way to lower your risk of opening new positions in the Romanian markets. However, you should only use this strategy if you have an existing account that can be used without too much difficulty. In addition, you will need to get permission from the Foreign Exchange Committee before opening any new position using this technique.
Negative balance - how much you can actually lose while trading

Negative balance - how much you can actually lose while trading

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.12.2021 10:16
If traders do not properly set stop losses (as some do), their forex trading accounts may wind up with negative balances. Using Stop Loss and Margin Call levels, a forex trader may often avoid a negative balance. Stop losses may be triggered fast during periods of high volatility, resulting in a negative balance. Making a new deposit may help you recover your overdraft.   Negative balance FX protection is a safeguard that brokers use to protect their customers. Negative balance protection is provided when a trader's account balance becomes negative as a result of their trading activity, preventing them from losing more money than they deposited.   On January 15, 2015, the USDCHF plummeted 2780 pips in 30 minutes, putting my account in the red. When the Swiss National Bank removed the euro limit, the franc increased by 30%. Because my broker was unable to alter currency pairings, I used stop losses on all of my transactions. My trading account was losing money.   Foreign currency trading (Forex) is a risky endeavor since the value of various currencies fluctuates drastically owing to a number of factors. Despite the fact that most forex traders only trade with what they have, a negative balance in one's Forex account is not uncommon. On January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) made an unexpected decision to remove the floor from the EUR/CHF currency pair. When the floor was raised, hundreds of live forex account balances turned negative, much to their amazement.   Many forex accounts had negative balances as a result of the SNB's decision to remove the floor. Changes in the volatility of a certain currency pair may have an impact on some trading systems. As long as there is a significant difference in the values of various currencies, the balance may go below zero. As a consequence, the phrase "negative balance" has become synonymous with currency trading. Despite the use of stop-out levels and margin calls, it is a difficulty that many forex traders face. Negative Balance Protection In Forex Is it possible to lose money while trading currencies? Because traders utilizing leverage may owe more than they have access to in their accounts, the likelihood of a negative balance grows. It's easy to be concerned about a currency account's negative balance from this vantage point.   If you want to avoid your forex trading account from sliding into the red, you must use a stop-loss order. Stop-Loss (SL) and Margin Call (MC) stops may be employed. Furthermore, certain brokerages, such as XM broker, give their clients accounts with negative balance protection. One example is the XM ultra low account, which does not charge traders commission costs. Aside from that, traders are permitted to employ the previously stated stop-loss order, which is often used by investors, to prevent negative balances on their accounts. In certain situations, brokers imposed a Margin Call limit, which meant that floating positions would be terminated at a loss if their expected losses exceeded a predefined limit.   Many forex traders ignore the MC limit for fear of losing their whole account. Even if you have Margin Call activated in your account settings, your account balance might still fall negative or be totally wiped out. Traders tend to ignore Stop Loss orders, despite the fact that they are a crucial risk-reduction instrument.   Traders may be certain that they will not go bankrupt if their forex trading account has a negative balance. If a margin call is made, a trader who is fast losing money may be able to avoid bankruptcy. When you get a margin call, you immediately close all of your open investments that are fast losing value. How To Prevent Negative Balance? A negative balance may be prevented in the first place, and it is possible to avoid it. You will not be asked to pay the negative amount if you have Negative Amount Protection, but your account will be reset to $0. To put it another way, you'll lose all you invested. In other words, why wait for the NBP to kick in when you can halt the loss immediately?   Consider the number of your holdings as well as the number of orders you make when making transactions. Because not all transactions are successful, the more you trade, the more likely you are to lose money. What's the harm in doing so if it allows you to better regulate your transaction and reduce your risk? In this instance, forex brokers' micro accounts, which often contain smaller bets, might be a viable option.   To keep your money in your account, you must create a reasonable stop loss barrier. As a result, the danger of market and price volatility is reduced.   The more leverage you have, the more money you will be able to get. You are, however, put at greater danger as a consequence of it. There are various techniques to reduce your stock market risk.   When the market is volatile, stop losses, margin calls, and stop-outs all fail. This tendency is typically triggered when news or events with a big influence on the market cause fear. Keep an eye on the economic calendar and avoid trading at particular times of the year.   Most forex brokers will announce and change leverage and margin requirements for certain instruments when a major event or news release is near. You should either stay out of the market or adjust your position as a consequence of this warning.
Do you really need to understand economics to trade Forex successfully?

Do you really need to understand economics to trade Forex successfully?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 29.12.2021 10:14
The biggest financial market in the world is the forex market. To begin trading Forex, you must have a working grasp of the current state of the global economy. You need to be aware of the significance of this news and happenings in the forex market and how they will affect your transactions. If you want to be at the top of the list, you may invest some time studying what this economic news and activities truly imply in simple words.   Understanding the fundamentals of global economics may aid in your Forex trading success. A wide range of economic variables affects the exchange rates of different currencies all around the globe. The following are some of the factors:   Interest rate changes by a country's central bank Spending by both the government and the general public There is both public and private debt. GDP and CPI are two measures of the economy. a currency's supply of money and demand   The movement of currencies throughout the globe is affected by any change in money flows. Understanding the rules of trading is more important than being an expert in economics. But, having a fundamental comprehension of the economic principles that regulate the movement of money throughout the globe and a high-level understanding of Forex trading as well, would be ideal.   In order to build a strategy that fits your personality it is crucial to be familiar with the market structure, order flow and algorithmic movement. Those people who are new in this industry need to get more information about how to learn forex trading, to avoid losing money and being a victim of financial frauds. For forex traders, there is always a piece of economic data due for publication from at least eight major currencies that may be used to make smart bets. However, It is also worth noting that in reality, the eight most closely watched nations provide statistics on an average of seven days a week (excluding vacations). There are several prospects for people who trade news.   It's more difficult to trade the news than it seems. Both official and unofficial estimates (whispers) and adjustments to earlier reports are critical to determining a consensus figure. According to both the relevance of the nation providing the data and the importance of this release in comparison to other data releases, certain releases are more relevant than others. How To Start Forex Trading - Basic Guide If the value of one currency rises or falls relative to the other, then forex trading is successful.   Even if the price may rise tomorrow, a trader may decide to acquire a currency now and sell it for a profit at a later date. We call this "going long."   Another option is to sell a currency and then purchase it back later at a lower price if they believe its value will fall. Going short is a term for this.   Inflation, interest rates, and political events may all have an impact on the value of a currency. Find a forex broker first to obtain access to the market.   You may establish a forex trading account online after you've chosen a broker and are ready to begin trading.   Before making an investment, it is essential to verify that a broker is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).   The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) maintains an online database of all regulated brokers traders could trust. So, there is a risk that a broker that isn't listed is a fake company that is willing to defraud you for money. That’s the reason why you should always be vigilant and informed while making a choice.   Depending on whether you are buying or selling, the same currency pair will have somewhat different pricing.   There is a bit of a learning curve, but it's worth remembering that prices are always given in terms of the forex broker's viewpoint, rather than yours.   From the viewpoint of a broker, prospective purchasers must make an offer if you are selling currency. Consequently, When you purchase a currency, you'll have to pay the seller's asking price.   Using leverage, traders are able to borrow money from a broker so that they may trade higher quantities of money.   The broker will cover the remainder of your investment once you make a modest initial deposit known as a margin.   Depending on the broker, the amount of leverage available varies. If the investment is successful, leverage may help you enhance your profit, but it's crucial to keep in mind that trading higher quantities of currency can also raise your chance of loss.   Before employing leverage, make sure you understand all of the dangers and potential losses. This is because, unlike conventional investments, where you can only lose your original investment, leverage leaves you exposed to an almost limitless amount of risk.   As currencies fluctuate in value, it's difficult to maintain track of your transactions 24 hours a day in the forex market.   To minimize the danger of losing money if the market does not move in your favor, there are certain automatic methods that you may set up in your forex account   Stop-loss orders restrict the amount of money a trader loses if a currency's value rises over a specified threshold. An investor may select a minimum or maximum price at which they want to purchase or sell a currency pair. When you use limit orders, you don't have to keep an eye on currency rates and automatically purchase or sell a currency when the price reaches your target.   You need to exchange big amounts of money in order to see a profit on the forex market. However, even while leverage raises the amount of currency you trade, it substantially increases the chance of you losing money, so much so that you stand to lose more than your starting capital. So, before you start trading forex, make sure you do your homework and figure out whether you can afford to lose your money.
Bitcoin (BTC), Fed, US Jobs Data, OPEC and EURUSD. What they all have in common? They’re mentioned in Swissquote’s video!

Bitcoin (BTC), Fed, US Jobs Data, OPEC and EURUSD. What they all have in common? They’re mentioned in Swissquote’s video!

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 05.01.2022 14:25
Market mood turned sour in the US trading yesterday, and the latest data showed that 4.5 million Americans quit their jobs in November. 4.5 million is a lot of job departures, but there is nothing the Federal Reserve (Fed) could do about it, as the root cause of the problem is not the lack of job openings. Today’s ADP data is expected to reveal that the US economy added 400’000 private jobs in December. That would be less than a tenth of what has been lost in November. So the question is, does the jobs data even matter anymore? US equity indices retreated yesterday, and yesterday’s price action is mostly driven by higher interest rate expectations. In the forex, the US dollar remains strong, and that strength is pushing the EURUSD below the 1.13 mark. The sterling bulls, however, defend well their territory against a broadly stronger US dollar and a push above the 100-DMA, near the 1.3560 mark, should throw a basis to a medium term bullish reversal in Cable. In cryptocurrencies, appetite in Bitcoin remains contained near the 200-dma and the coin is testing the low end of the December horizontal channel base, which is near $45K level. One explanation for the lack of appetite is the rising US yields, which are applying a visible downside pressure on the pricing of cryptocurrencies. And gold is now trading above both its 50, 100 and 200-DMA, but the positive attempt to the $1830 level remained short-lived. It will be interesting to see how the rising US yields, which increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold, will play out in the coming months for gold investors. Watch the full episode to find out more!
Considering Portfolios In Times Of, Among Others, Inflation...

XAUUSD, USDJPY And AUDJPY Are Mentioned In Jason Sen's Video Analysis

Jason Sen Jason Sen 18.01.2022 13:39
AUDJPY longs work if you are still holding them hitting target & only resistance for today at 8280/8300. Therefore a break above 8320 is a buy signal targeting 8365/75. A buying opportunity again at 8220/10. Stop below 8190. A break below 8190 is a sell signal targeting 8160/55, perhaps as far as 8100/8090. EURJPY straight through minor resistance at 130.60/70 to the next target of 130.95/99 with a test of trend line resistance at 131.20/30 now likely. Shorts need stops above 131.45. A break higher is a buy signal - try to jump in and hold long in to the end of the week. A buying opportunity again at 130.10/129.90 with stop below 129.80. EURUSD longs at the buying opportunity at 1.1400/1.1380 target strong resistance at 1.1455/65. This held quite well on the last test. Further gains are likely eventually towards 1.1500/10 & 1.1560/70 A buying opportunity at 1.1400/1.1380 - stop below 1.1365. If this trade fails, I fear we will remain stuck in a sideways trend. GBPUSD shorts at the 200 day moving average at 1.3735/40 worked in severely overbought conditions to test support at 1.3670/60. Further losses today meet strong support at 1.3620/00 with a good chance of a low for the day. Longs need stops below 1.3585. Next target & support at 1.3535/25. 200 day moving average resistance again at 1.3735/40 Shorts need stops above 1.3755 this week. A break higher is the next buy signal targeting 1.3780 & 1.3805/15. Expect some resistance at the October high at 1.3830/35. Emini S&P got close to a test of the neck line at 4590/80 on Friday but bounced from 4606. If tested this week, longs need stops below 4570. A break lower is a significant sell signal. Minor resistance at 4670/80 & again at 4695/4705. Further gains can retest last week's high of 4735/40. Next target is 4750/60. Above 4765 can retest the all time high at 4800/08. Nasdaq perhaps building a minor negative trend in January perhaps. Holding quite important resistance at 15700/750 is negative for today initially targeting 15550/500. If we continue lower look for 15350/320 before a retest of last week's low at 15170/150. Further losses test the 200 day moving average at 15000/14950. First resistance at 15700/750 - shorts need stops above 15800. A break higher targets more minor resistance at 16000/16100. A break above here is a buy signal & we could even retest the all time high. Emini Dow Jones I am waiting for a clear pattern of trend to develop. For now, minor resistance at 35800/850 tested as I write over night but if we continue higher look for a test of minor resistance at 36000/36050. Further gains can target 36300/350. Holding minor resistance at 35800/850 can target 35750/700 before a retest of this week's low at 35540/520. A break lower this week targets support at the 100 day moving average at 35350/330. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.
USDCAD Chart Like A Ski Slope. Will EURGBP Go Back To The Previous Value? USOIL - How Long The Price Will Be Increasing?

USDCAD Chart Like A Ski Slope. Will EURGBP Go Back To The Previous Value? USOIL - How Long The Price Will Be Increasing?

John Benjamin John Benjamin 20.01.2022 09:19
USDCAD grinds lower The Canadian dollar finds support from hotter-than-expected inflation. The US counterpart remained under pressure after it failed to hold onto 1.2500. The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation has attracted some buying interest. But timid rebounds have rather been opportunities for trend-followers to sell into strength. 1.2570 is a key resistance to lift if the bulls look for another chance. On the downside, a drop below 1.2450 would trigger a new round of sell-off towards the daily support at 1.2390. EURGBP slips to 12-month lows The sterling edged higher after Britain’s December CPI exceeded expectations. The euro has struggled to lift offers around 0.8375 after a two-week-long consolidation. The subsequent break below 0.8340 has forced buyers to bail out, exacerbating the bearish mood. This former support has turned into a fresh resistance. A bearish MA cross indicates an acceleration to the downside. The pair is now heading towards February 2020’s lows near 0.8290. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound. USOIL seeks support WTI crude continued upward after the IEA warned inventories in OECD countries were at their lowest levels. The rally may accelerate in the medium-term after the bulls clear last October’s high at 85.00. However, the RSI has shot into the overbought area on the daily chart. Bearish divergence on the hourly time frame suggests a slowdown in the short-term momentum. Price action could be due for a pullback. 84.70 is the first support and 88.00 is the resistance when the price bounces back.
Tension Beetween Ukraine And Russia Definetely Shaped News In Recent Days

EUR/USD Forecast: Poor US employment-related data undermines dollar’s demand

FXStreet News FXStreet News 20.01.2022 15:58
EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1351 The EU December Consumer Price Index was confirmed at 5% YoY, as previously estimated. US Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly jumped to 286K in the week ended January 7. EUR/USD bounces from its intraday low but maintains a neutral stance in the near term. The EUR/USD pair eased from an intraday peak of 1.1368, trading in the 1.1350 area heading into the US opening. The greenback trades mixed across the FX board, weaker against commodity-linked currencies but grinding higher vs its European rivals. Financial markets are quieter on Thursday, with European stocks struggling for direction but stuck around their opening levels. The EU published the December Consumer Price Index, which was confirmed at 5% YoY, while the core reading met the preliminary estimate posting 2.6%. Also, the European Central Bank posted the Accounts of its latest meeting, which showed that policymakers are aware of a possible "higher for longer" inflation scenario. The US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 7, which unexpectedly jumped to 286K, much worse than the 220K expected. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey surged from 15.4 to 23.2 in January, beating expectations. The news put some pressure on the greenback, now recovering from its daily low at 1.1330. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair could resume its decline in the upcoming sessions, as there are no technical signs of buying interest. The daily chart shows that the pair is incapable of advancing beyond a flat 20 SMA for a second consecutive day, while the Momentum indicator heads lower within negative levels. Additionally, the RSI is stable, although around 49. Meanwhile, the pair keeps trading between Fibonacci levels, with immediate support at 1.1305, the 23.6% retracement of the 1.1691/1.1185 slide. The 38.2% retracement is located at 1.1385, providing strong resistance since mid-November. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair maintains a neutral-to-bearish stance, trading below a firmly bearish 20 SMA but between directionless 100 and 200 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within negative levels, the Momentum advancing but the RSI flat at around 44. Support levels: 1.1305 1.1260 1.1220 Resistance levels: 1.1385 1.1440 1.1485
USDCHF, CADJPY And UK 100 - All Of Them Got Some Gains

USDCHF, CADJPY And UK 100 - All Of Them Got Some Gains

John Benjamin John Benjamin 24.01.2022 09:51
USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc rallied as traders poured into safe-haven currencies. The pair previously bounced off the critical floor (0.9090) on the daily chart. An oversold RSI in this demand zone brought in some buying interest. However, sentiment remains downbeat with the greenback struggling to clear offers around 0.9180. A fall below said support would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.9020 as late buyers rush to the exit. On the upside, a bullish breakout would open the door to the recent peak at 0.9275. CADJPY breaks key support The Canadian dollar slipped after disappointing retail sales in November. A bearish RSI divergence at the recent high (91.15) indicates a loss of momentum in the rally. The first drop below 90.60 prompted some buyers to bail out. Then the rebound met stiff selling pressure at 91.90. And this is a sign of exhaustion after a four-week-long uptrend. The loonie now has fallen through the major support at 90.60, with 89.80 as the target. As the RSI goes oversold, traders may look to sell the next bounce near 91.05. UK 100 tumbles through supports The FTSE 100 stalls as appetite subsides across risk assets. An overbought RSI on the daily chart suggests over-extension after a month-long rally. A pullback is necessary for the bulls to catch their breath. A drop below 7530 and then 7470 further weighs on short-term sentiment as profit-taking intensifies. The index is about to test 7380, a fresh demand zone from the November-December double top on the daily timeframe. The bulls need to reclaim 7540 before a rebound could gain traction.
NASDAQ, Non-Farm Payrolls, GBPAUD, Gold and More in The Next Episode of "The Trade Off"

Stock Market in 2022: Momentum on the Stocks in the Market Are In a Solid Footing

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.01.2022 10:51
The year 2022 is seemingly a mixed bag, even as markets start reopening. The year looks promising, though, with issues like inflation and COVID to contemplate. Historic rallies in 2021 after lockdowns are looking to inspire trading in various industries, with some assets to look out for by investors. Growth will surely return at some point, but so will disappointing instances where tumbles will dominate trading desks. The S & P's historic gains of 30 percent dominated the press at the close of 2021, making investors using Naga and other optimistic platforms. The ended year had one of the longest bull markets. However, the Fed rate tightening and the direction the pandemic will take are some things to expect, notwithstanding that the stock market might grow by a whopping 10 percent in 2022. Trading Movements In Week One 2022 European markets have opened with a lot of optimism in 2022, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed at 489.99 points; this is 0.5 percent higher than the opening figure. The European benchmark was some percentage lower than the overall S&P 2021 performance, though with a surge of 22.4 percent. Record gains in the stock markets have relied on the positions taken by the governments during the pandemic. In the USA and Europe, increasing vaccination rates and economic stimulus measures have improved investor confidence. However, there are indications for more volatility in 2022, a situation investors must watch keenly. There has been little activity in London markets in the first week of 2022, while in Italy, France, and Spain gains of between 0.5-1.4 percent made notable highlights. European markets had diverse industries drive up the closing gains witnessed; the airline sector, in particular, has had a significant influence. Germany’s Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) had an impressive 8.8 percent jump while Air France KLM (AIRF.PA), a 4.9 percent gain. Factory activity is another factor to thank for the first week's gains all over Europe. Noteworthy, the Omicron variant influenced trading in the entirety of December, but the reports that it is milder than Delta has energized market activities coming into January. S&P and DOW Jones 2022 First Week Highs Across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a record high, highlighting a similar aggressiveness as the European markets. While the jump was industrial-wide, Tech stocks continued to dominate, as Apple finally touched the $3 trillion valuation, though for a short time. Tesla Inc. (TSLA.O) posted a 13.5 percent jump thanks to increased production in China and an unprecedented goal to surpass its target. The US market, like the European market, is also in a fix; the Omicron variant of COVID-19 continues to cause concern with the wait-and-see approach, the only notable strategy. Currently, every country is reporting a jump in the number of Covid cases, with the UK going above 100K cases for the first time and the US recording some new records as well. School delays and increased isolation by key workers will surely debilitate the markets, with the global chip shortage another point to contemplate. However, markets can still ride on the increased development of therapies to help fight Covid. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (CDC) has been quick, as now children can have their third doses as well. Industries to Look Out For In 2022 European automakers have seen early peaks, while the airline sector has also picked up fast. In the US, tech shares continue to dominate, and 2022 might witness new records never seen before. However, the energy sectors have also dominated the news in 2021, and in 2022; the confidence in them will continue to rise because of an anticipation of stabilization in energy prices. The same goes for crude oil prices. Regardless, shareholders will continue watching the decisions by the Federal Reserve, a review in the current interest rates will surely tame inflation. Conclusion 2022 will see its highs and lows in investments. Some assets will make the news and investors will be keen to use any information to make key decisions. Tech will continue to shine, but it is important to anticipate the direction of the pandemic, as it will be an important factor in investor decisions.
COT Euro Currency Speculators boosted their bullish bets to 23-week high

COT Euro Currency Speculators boosted their bullish bets to 23-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 29.01.2022 18:55
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further gains of bullish bets in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators raised their bullish bets for a sixth consecutive week this week and for the seventh time in the past eight weeks. Over the last six-week time-frame, Euro bets have improved by a total of +43,439 contracts, going from -11,879 net positions on December 14th to +31,560 net positions this week. This week’s net speculator standing marks the highest level for Euro bets since August 17th, a span of twenty-three weeks. Joining the Euro (6,976 contracts) with positive changes this week were the yen (12,606 contracts), US Dollar Index (427 contracts), Australian dollar (5,181 contracts), Swiss franc (2,014 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,825 contracts) and Bitcoin (515 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the British pound sterling (-7,516 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,442 contracts), Brazil real (-1,247 contracts), Russian ruble (-2,478 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-5,710 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jan-25-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 52,328 72 36,861 89 -42,505 4 5,644 78 EUR 682,952 77 31,560 45 -56,258 60 24,698 15 GBP 182,040 27 -7,763 68 16,842 40 -9,079 37 JPY 197,830 53 -68,273 25 82,863 77 -14,590 18 CHF 39,742 14 -8,796 55 13,479 46 -4,683 50 CAD 146,448 28 12,317 60 -19,581 44 7,264 44 AUD 190,020 75 -83,273 8 97,749 92 -14,476 17 NZD 53,316 50 -10,773 53 13,281 51 -2,508 23 MXN 150,142 26 -790 27 -1,478 72 2,268 53 RUB 46,883 48 3,944 23 -4,288 76 344 44 BRL 46,657 54 -12,616 52 11,258 48 1,358 83 Bitcoin 11,756 64 -34 100 -478 0 512 25   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,434 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.8 3.4 14.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 84.6 3.8 – Net Position: 36,861 -42,505 5,644 – Gross Longs: 41,772 1,777 7,658 – Gross Shorts: 4,911 44,282 2,014 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.4 4.0 78.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.7 -9.8 3.0   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 31,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,976 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,584 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 55.5 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.6 63.8 8.0 – Net Position: 31,560 -56,258 24,698 – Gross Longs: 213,408 379,154 79,273 – Gross Shorts: 181,848 435,412 54,575 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.7 59.8 15.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.3 -11.2 -6.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -247 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.1 64.7 13.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.4 55.5 18.7 – Net Position: -7,763 16,842 -9,079 – Gross Longs: 36,666 117,812 24,909 – Gross Shorts: 44,429 100,970 33,988 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.4 39.6 36.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 31.0 -31.7 22.0   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -68,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,879 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 81.0 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.5 39.1 16.4 – Net Position: -68,273 82,863 -14,590 – Gross Longs: 15,866 160,178 17,950 – Gross Shorts: 84,139 77,315 32,540 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.9 77.3 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 5.9 6.4   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,810 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 69.4 25.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.2 35.5 36.9 – Net Position: -8,796 13,479 -4,683 – Gross Longs: 1,999 27,591 9,996 – Gross Shorts: 10,795 14,112 14,679 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.6 46.0 49.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.8 -1.5 5.2   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,492 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.3 39.3 21.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.9 52.6 16.6 – Net Position: 12,317 -19,581 7,264 – Gross Longs: 53,129 57,492 31,539 – Gross Shorts: 40,812 77,073 24,275 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 43.5 44.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.7 -12.1 -15.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -83,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,454 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 80.7 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.8 29.3 16.2 – Net Position: -83,273 97,749 -14,476 – Gross Longs: 15,121 153,386 16,371 – Gross Shorts: 98,394 55,637 30,847 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.6 91.8 17.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.1 -0.5 12.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,331 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 63.2 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 38.3 9.9 – Net Position: -10,773 13,281 -2,508 – Gross Longs: 15,948 33,712 2,784 – Gross Shorts: 26,721 20,431 5,292 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.2 50.9 23.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 7.9 -2.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,710 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,920 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.3 51.6 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.8 52.6 2.4 – Net Position: -790 -1,478 2,268 – Gross Longs: 66,449 77,473 5,892 – Gross Shorts: 67,239 78,951 3,624 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.0 72.2 52.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -5.8 17.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -12,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,369 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.9 45.6 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.0 21.5 4.7 – Net Position: -12,616 11,258 1,358 – Gross Longs: 21,434 21,274 3,541 – Gross Shorts: 34,050 10,016 2,183 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.7 48.4 83.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.7 8.4 21.0   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,422 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 63.3 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.0 72.4 3.6 – Net Position: 3,944 -4,288 344 – Gross Longs: 15,179 29,669 2,015 – Gross Shorts: 11,235 33,957 1,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.7 75.7 43.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -29.8 30.5 -20.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -549 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.8 2.4 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.1 6.5 8.1 – Net Position: -34 -478 512 – Gross Longs: 8,678 285 1,469 – Gross Shorts: 8,712 763 957 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 24.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.9 -60.9 -0.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low

COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.02.2022 20:24
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the decline for the US Dollar Index in the currency futures contracts. Dollar Index speculators cut back on their bullish bets this week for the third time in the past four weeks after previously pushing their bullish bets to a 117-week high on January 4th. Since that high-point, bullish bets have fallen by a total of -4,507 contracts and have now dropped the overall standing to a seven-week low. Despite the recent slide, the US Dollar Index bullish bets are still near the top of their range over the past three years with a speculator strength index score of 85.4 percent which is considered extremely bullish (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The Dollar Index price has had a volatile couple of weeks with a sharp rise to 97.22 on January 28th and then a sharp drop to 95.23 on February 3rd and closed the week at approximately 95.48. The currencies with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (7,633 contracts), Swiss franc (557 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,947 contracts), Russian ruble (10,207 contracts), Bitcoin (175 contracts), Australian dollar (3,444 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,520 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,290 contracts), Euro (-1,844 contracts), British pound sterling (-15,842 contracts), Brazil real (-737 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-925 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,477 81 34,571 85 -41,884 5 7,313 97 EUR 685,431 78 29,716 44 -57,467 59 27,751 20 GBP 184,007 28 -23,605 57 28,891 47 -5,286 45 JPY 194,435 51 -60,640 30 79,353 76 -18,713 9 CHF 41,054 16 -8,239 56 16,541 49 -8,302 39 CAD 145,082 27 18,264 65 -25,622 39 7,358 44 AUD 196,913 80 -79,829 11 96,098 91 -16,269 13 NZD 58,467 60 -11,698 52 14,019 52 -2,321 25 MXN 141,352 22 730 28 -3,848 71 3,118 56 RUB 46,358 47 14,151 47 -14,451 52 300 43 BRL 76,175 100 -13,353 51 10,467 47 2,886 100 Bitcoin 9,948 51 141 100 -491 0 350 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,861 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.7 3.8 16.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 78.0 3.3 – Net Position: 34,571 -41,884 7,313 – Gross Longs: 43,897 2,141 9,203 – Gross Shorts: 9,326 44,025 1,890 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.4 5.0 96.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -2.6 22.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,560 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 55.0 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 63.4 8.2 – Net Position: 29,716 -57,467 27,751 – Gross Longs: 213,563 376,805 83,675 – Gross Shorts: 183,847 434,272 55,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 59.5 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.2 -11.8 3.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.1 68.8 13.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 53.1 16.4 – Net Position: -23,605 28,891 -5,286 – Gross Longs: 29,597 126,536 24,845 – Gross Shorts: 53,202 97,645 30,131 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.0 46.8 44.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -25.0 16.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 82.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.7 41.7 17.8 – Net Position: -60,640 79,353 -18,713 – Gross Longs: 14,510 160,358 15,958 – Gross Shorts: 75,150 81,005 34,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.7 75.6 9.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.3 4.1 0.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,796 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 1.7 73.5 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 33.2 44.8 – Net Position: -8,239 16,541 -8,302 – Gross Longs: 698 30,161 10,103 – Gross Shorts: 8,937 13,620 18,405 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 49.4 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 0.7 -4.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,317 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 39.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 57.3 16.5 – Net Position: 18,264 -25,622 7,358 – Gross Longs: 52,386 57,524 31,356 – Gross Shorts: 34,122 83,146 23,998 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 39.4 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.3 -22.9 9.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 78.8 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 30.0 17.5 – Net Position: -79,829 96,098 -16,269 – Gross Longs: 18,835 155,124 18,128 – Gross Shorts: 98,664 59,026 34,397 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.8 90.6 12.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.5 -1.4 3.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,773 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.0 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 37.0 8.7 – Net Position: -11,698 14,019 -2,321 – Gross Longs: 19,205 35,644 2,783 – Gross Shorts: 30,903 21,625 5,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 52.0 25.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 7.9 4.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -790 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.0 57.2 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.5 59.9 2.3 – Net Position: 730 -3,848 3,118 – Gross Longs: 53,767 80,885 6,378 – Gross Shorts: 53,037 84,733 3,260 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 71.2 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -4.3 20.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.3 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.2 32.6 2.2 – Net Position: -13,353 10,467 2,886 – Gross Longs: 36,293 35,263 4,562 – Gross Shorts: 49,646 24,796 1,676 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 47.4 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 4.3 42.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,944 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.0 41.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 72.7 3.7 – Net Position: 14,151 -14,451 300 – Gross Longs: 25,048 19,255 2,024 – Gross Shorts: 10,897 33,706 1,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 52.4 42.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.1 -10.5 -26.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.3 3.1 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.8 8.0 8.9 – Net Position: 141 -491 350 – Gross Longs: 7,984 304 1,232 – Gross Shorts: 7,843 795 882 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 20.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.4 -43.4 -11.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low - 06.02.2022

COT Forex Speculators reduce their US Dollar bullish bets to 7-week low - 06.02.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.02.2022 20:24
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the decline for the US Dollar Index in the currency futures contracts. Dollar Index speculators cut back on their bullish bets this week for the third time in the past four weeks after previously pushing their bullish bets to a 117-week high on January 4th. Since that high-point, bullish bets have fallen by a total of -4,507 contracts and have now dropped the overall standing to a seven-week low. Despite the recent slide, the US Dollar Index bullish bets are still near the top of their range over the past three years with a speculator strength index score of 85.4 percent which is considered extremely bullish (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The Dollar Index price has had a volatile couple of weeks with a sharp rise to 97.22 on January 28th and then a sharp drop to 95.23 on February 3rd and closed the week at approximately 95.48. The currencies with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (7,633 contracts), Swiss franc (557 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,947 contracts), Russian ruble (10,207 contracts), Bitcoin (175 contracts), Australian dollar (3,444 contracts) and the Mexican peso (1,520 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,290 contracts), Euro (-1,844 contracts), British pound sterling (-15,842 contracts), Brazil real (-737 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-925 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,477 81 34,571 85 -41,884 5 7,313 97 EUR 685,431 78 29,716 44 -57,467 59 27,751 20 GBP 184,007 28 -23,605 57 28,891 47 -5,286 45 JPY 194,435 51 -60,640 30 79,353 76 -18,713 9 CHF 41,054 16 -8,239 56 16,541 49 -8,302 39 CAD 145,082 27 18,264 65 -25,622 39 7,358 44 AUD 196,913 80 -79,829 11 96,098 91 -16,269 13 NZD 58,467 60 -11,698 52 14,019 52 -2,321 25 MXN 141,352 22 730 28 -3,848 71 3,118 56 RUB 46,358 47 14,151 47 -14,451 52 300 43 BRL 76,175 100 -13,353 51 10,467 47 2,886 100 Bitcoin 9,948 51 141 100 -491 0 350 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,861 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.7 3.8 16.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 78.0 3.3 – Net Position: 34,571 -41,884 7,313 – Gross Longs: 43,897 2,141 9,203 – Gross Shorts: 9,326 44,025 1,890 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.4 5.0 96.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -2.6 22.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,560 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 55.0 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 63.4 8.2 – Net Position: 29,716 -57,467 27,751 – Gross Longs: 213,563 376,805 83,675 – Gross Shorts: 183,847 434,272 55,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 59.5 20.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.2 -11.8 3.2   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.1 68.8 13.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 53.1 16.4 – Net Position: -23,605 28,891 -5,286 – Gross Longs: 29,597 126,536 24,845 – Gross Shorts: 53,202 97,645 30,131 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.0 46.8 44.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.6 -25.0 16.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 82.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.7 41.7 17.8 – Net Position: -60,640 79,353 -18,713 – Gross Longs: 14,510 160,358 15,958 – Gross Shorts: 75,150 81,005 34,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.7 75.6 9.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.3 4.1 0.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,796 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 1.7 73.5 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 33.2 44.8 – Net Position: -8,239 16,541 -8,302 – Gross Longs: 698 30,161 10,103 – Gross Shorts: 8,937 13,620 18,405 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 49.4 38.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 0.7 -4.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,317 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 39.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 57.3 16.5 – Net Position: 18,264 -25,622 7,358 – Gross Longs: 52,386 57,524 31,356 – Gross Shorts: 34,122 83,146 23,998 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 39.4 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.3 -22.9 9.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,273 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 78.8 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 30.0 17.5 – Net Position: -79,829 96,098 -16,269 – Gross Longs: 18,835 155,124 18,128 – Gross Shorts: 98,664 59,026 34,397 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.8 90.6 12.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.5 -1.4 3.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,773 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.0 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 37.0 8.7 – Net Position: -11,698 14,019 -2,321 – Gross Longs: 19,205 35,644 2,783 – Gross Shorts: 30,903 21,625 5,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 52.0 25.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 7.9 4.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -790 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.0 57.2 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.5 59.9 2.3 – Net Position: 730 -3,848 3,118 – Gross Longs: 53,767 80,885 6,378 – Gross Shorts: 53,037 84,733 3,260 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 71.2 56.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -4.3 20.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.3 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.2 32.6 2.2 – Net Position: -13,353 10,467 2,886 – Gross Longs: 36,293 35,263 4,562 – Gross Shorts: 49,646 24,796 1,676 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 47.4 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 4.3 42.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,944 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.0 41.5 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.5 72.7 3.7 – Net Position: 14,151 -14,451 300 – Gross Longs: 25,048 19,255 2,024 – Gross Shorts: 10,897 33,706 1,724 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 52.4 42.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.1 -10.5 -26.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.3 3.1 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.8 8.0 8.9 – Net Position: 141 -491 350 – Gross Longs: 7,984 304 1,232 – Gross Shorts: 7,843 795 882 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 20.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.4 -43.4 -11.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Currency Speculator’s bullish bets for Brazilian Real jump by most on record - 12.02.2022

COT Currency Speculator’s bullish bets for Brazilian Real jump by most on record - 12.02.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.02.2022 18:28
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the strong gains in bullish bets for the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators boosted their bullish bets this week by the largest one-week amount (+33,599 contracts) on record, according the CFTC data going back to 1995. This surge in bullish sentiment pushed the overall net speculator standing for Brazilian Reals into bullish territory for the first time in nineteen weeks, dating back to September 28th. There has been a surge of trading going on in this market over the past couple of weeks with open interest increasing dramatically. Open interest (OI) for the Brazilian currency jumped on February 2nd to a total of 76,175 contracts which marked the highest OI level of the previous 381 weeks, dating all the way back to September of 2014. The previous ten weeks had seen an average open interest of less than half (ten week average of 33,492 contracts) of the February 2nd total. This week’s open interest fell a bit to 64,283 contracts but still was the second highest open interest of the past thirty-six weeks and with all this activity going on, this is a currency to watch. Joining the Brazil real (33,599 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Euro (9,126 contracts), Japanese yen (1,492 contracts), British pound sterling (15,060 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,332 contracts), Mexican peso (514 contracts) and the Russian ruble (1,292 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-806 contracts), Australian dollar (-5,912 contracts), Canadian dollar (-3,378 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,160 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (-460 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 53,603 75 33,765 84 -40,826 7 7,061 94 EUR 700,098 83 38,842 47 -73,252 55 34,410 31 GBP 197,948 37 -8,545 68 9,323 35 -778 54 JPY 196,478 53 -59,148 31 75,957 74 -16,809 13 CHF 41,481 16 -9,399 54 16,918 50 -7,519 41 CAD 145,208 27 14,886 62 -16,958 45 2,072 34 AUD 196,403 80 -85,741 5 98,357 92 -12,616 22 NZD 54,877 53 -10,366 54 12,733 50 -2,367 25 MXN 134,257 19 1,244 28 -4,073 71 2,829 55 RUB 39,233 35 15,443 50 -16,839 47 1,396 72 BRL 64,283 81 20,246 96 -22,432 4 2,186 92 Bitcoin 9,886 50 -319 90 -189 0 508 24   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,571 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 75.3 5.9 16.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.3 82.0 3.3 – Net Position: 33,765 -40,826 7,061 – Gross Longs: 40,370 3,150 8,841 – Gross Shorts: 6,605 43,976 1,780 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 5.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.0 6.8 93.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.2 2.7 15.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,716 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 54.6 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.7 65.1 7.6 – Net Position: 38,842 -73,252 34,410 – Gross Longs: 218,973 382,426 87,725 – Gross Shorts: 180,131 455,678 53,315 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 55.0 31.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.0 -15.5 15.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,060 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,605 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 60.7 13.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 56.0 14.0 – Net Position: -8,545 9,323 -778 – Gross Longs: 44,709 120,220 26,951 – Gross Shorts: 53,254 110,897 27,729 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.8 35.2 54.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.4 -30.0 17.8   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,640 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 81.2 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.1 42.6 17.5 – Net Position: -59,148 75,957 -16,809 – Gross Longs: 15,692 159,601 17,609 – Gross Shorts: 74,840 83,644 34,418 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.7 73.9 13.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.8 1.8 5.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,239 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.0 72.8 23.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 32.1 41.8 – Net Position: -9,399 16,918 -7,519 – Gross Longs: 1,234 30,215 9,838 – Gross Shorts: 10,633 13,297 17,357 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.5 49.9 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 1.9 -8.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,264 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 40.2 18.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.5 51.9 17.5 – Net Position: 14,886 -16,958 2,072 – Gross Longs: 54,762 58,404 27,480 – Gross Shorts: 39,876 75,362 25,408 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.1 45.4 33.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.4 -16.7 -2.2   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 79.0 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.5 28.9 16.3 – Net Position: -85,741 98,357 -12,616 – Gross Longs: 17,323 155,203 19,485 – Gross Shorts: 103,064 56,846 32,101 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.3 92.3 21.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.7 -0.8 12.5   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,698 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 61.2 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.2 38.0 10.0 – Net Position: -10,366 12,733 -2,367 – Gross Longs: 17,168 33,591 3,097 – Gross Shorts: 27,534 20,858 5,464 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.9 50.0 24.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 4.1 -7.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 730 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.6 61.3 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 64.3 2.4 – Net Position: 1,244 -4,073 2,829 – Gross Longs: 45,097 82,287 6,067 – Gross Shorts: 43,853 86,360 3,238 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.9 71.1 55.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.4 -5.2 9.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 33,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,353 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.5 17.6 5.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.0 52.5 2.3 – Net Position: 20,246 -22,432 2,186 – Gross Longs: 49,170 11,336 3,666 – Gross Shorts: 28,924 33,768 1,480 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.7 3.5 91.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.2 -37.2 28.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,151 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.1 43.4 6.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.7 86.3 3.0 – Net Position: 15,443 -16,839 1,396 – Gross Longs: 19,657 17,021 2,555 – Gross Shorts: 4,214 33,860 1,159 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.9 46.9 72.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.5 -15.9 -0.7   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.4 3.8 14.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 81.6 5.7 9.8 – Net Position: -319 -189 508 – Gross Longs: 7,751 376 1,474 – Gross Shorts: 8,070 565 966 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.9 24.8 24.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 2.9 -5.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
After A Large Amplitude GBPUSD Seems To Be Stable, But Maybe It Will Start Rising Again?

After A Large Amplitude GBPUSD Seems To Be Stable, But Maybe It Will Start Rising Again?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 17.02.2022 03:09
Today we’re looking at the GBPUSD as buyers continue to hold firm and now only face one level of resistance both they can get the new uptrend back on track. Fundamentally a few things remain on the radar. Russian/Ukrainian Situation, we’ve seen recently that fair ups are supporting the USD and any new escalations could drive the USD higher which would hurt the GBPUSD. T-note yields are another ongoing factor but yields have settled for now but new highs could once again hurt risk pairs including the GBPUSD. US inflation and UK inflation. US inflation and rate rises could be starting to be factored in unless we see a new spike. The minutes didn’t do much to drive the USD this week, while a new rise in UK inflation definitely supported the GBP yesterday giving the GBPUSD a nice boost in Wednesday’s session. With that in mind let’s look at some of the technicals we’re watching on the GBPUSD chart. For now, we see price stuck in consolidation with support and resistance currently holding price. Overall we can see two new uptrends in play, on the short and medium times. Price also sits above all three moving averages and the short term MAs are trading above the 86 MA. While support remains firm we will continue to look for buyers to push at a new continuation. The key to this is a break above the two resistance points. This could confirm a new breakout and start suggesting that the medium-term trend could continue. A break below support and a move back to the new Med-trend would be a small warning sign and further evidence would be required before thinking that the trend is going to continue. GBPUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: GBPUSD setting up for a continuation? appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Currency Speculators raise their Euro Futures bullish bets to 26-week high

COT Currency Speculators raise their Euro Futures bullish bets to 26-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.02.2022 18:38
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the gains in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. Over this nine-week time-frame, Euro bets have jumped by a total of +59,460 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 21st to +47,581 net positions this week. These gains in the Euro sentiment have now brought the speculator positioning to the highest level in the past twenty-six weeks, dating back to August 17th. Joining the Euro (8,739 contracts) with positive changes this week were the US Dollar Index (1,621 contracts), Brazil real (3,514 contracts), Mexican peso (7,730 contracts),  British pound sterling (10,782 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,033 contracts), Russian ruble (721 contracts) and the Bitcoin futures (104 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-7,014 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,716 contracts), Australian dollar (-953 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-316 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,283 77 35,386 87 -41,548 6 6,162 84 EUR 702,047 84 47,581 50 -85,057 52 37,476 36 GBP 195,302 36 2,237 76 2,874 31 -5,111 45 JPY 199,425 55 -66,162 26 86,256 79 -20,094 6 CHF 45,522 22 -9,715 53 18,888 52 -9,173 36 CAD 144,815 27 12,170 59 -15,116 47 2,946 36 AUD 192,578 77 -86,694 4 97,684 92 -10,990 26 NZD 64,105 71 -9,333 56 12,020 49 -2,687 21 MXN 151,098 26 8,974 31 -12,054 68 3,080 56 RUB 38,960 35 16,164 52 -17,239 46 1,075 64 BRL 67,288 85 23,760 100 -26,225 0 2,465 95 Bitcoin 10,646 56 -215 92 -213 0 428 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,765 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 5.0 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.8 81.5 3.2 – Net Position: 35,386 -41,548 6,162 – Gross Longs: 42,349 2,717 7,897 – Gross Shorts: 6,963 44,265 1,735 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.8 5.6 83.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.4 5.3 5.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,842 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.7 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.3 66.8 7.4 – Net Position: 47,581 -85,057 37,476 – Gross Longs: 217,899 383,827 89,120 – Gross Shorts: 170,318 468,884 51,644 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 51.7 36.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.1 -16.6 15.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,545 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 58.8 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.5 57.4 15.0 – Net Position: 2,237 2,874 -5,111 – Gross Longs: 50,151 114,901 24,257 – Gross Shorts: 47,914 112,027 29,368 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.6 31.4 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.8 -27.6 10.8   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,148 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 83.6 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 40.3 19.6 – Net Position: -66,162 86,256 -20,094 – Gross Longs: 10,425 166,645 18,973 – Gross Shorts: 76,587 80,389 39,067 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.2 79.0 6.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 0.7 5.2   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,399 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 72.6 19.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.4 31.2 39.2 – Net Position: -9,715 18,888 -9,173 – Gross Longs: 3,652 33,069 8,654 – Gross Shorts: 13,367 14,181 17,827 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 52.1 36.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.3 4.8 -11.9   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 40.4 19.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 50.9 17.5 – Net Position: 12,170 -15,116 2,946 – Gross Longs: 54,424 58,524 28,287 – Gross Shorts: 42,254 73,640 25,341 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.5 46.6 35.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.5 -16.4 0.9   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -86,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,741 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.1 81.0 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.1 30.2 15.9 – Net Position: -86,694 97,684 -10,990 – Gross Longs: 11,692 155,928 19,706 – Gross Shorts: 98,386 58,244 30,696 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 4.4 91.8 25.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.5 -2.3 1.1   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,366 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.9 55.3 4.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.4 36.5 8.6 – Net Position: -9,333 12,020 -2,687 – Gross Longs: 24,923 35,432 2,838 – Gross Shorts: 34,256 23,412 5,525 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 48.9 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.8 2.6 -13.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.4 56.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 64.0 2.1 – Net Position: 8,974 -12,054 3,080 – Gross Longs: 59,485 84,673 6,250 – Gross Shorts: 50,511 96,727 3,170 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 67.8 56.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -8.0 3.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,246 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.1 16.5 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.8 55.5 2.4 – Net Position: 23,760 -26,225 2,465 – Gross Longs: 51,868 11,101 4,095 – Gross Shorts: 28,108 37,326 1,630 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 95.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 33.1 -36.1 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,443 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.8 42.2 6.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.4 86.4 4.2 – Net Position: 16,164 -17,239 1,075 – Gross Longs: 19,808 16,440 2,700 – Gross Shorts: 3,644 33,679 1,625 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.6 46.0 63.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -19.2 -12.7   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -319 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.0 3.5 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 80.0 5.5 8.8 – Net Position: -215 -213 428 – Gross Longs: 8,307 369 1,364 – Gross Shorts: 8,522 582 936 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.2 22.8 22.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.5 -9.8 -6.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Tension Beetween Ukraine And Russia Definetely Shaped News In Recent Days

EURGBP - Does The Single Currency Strengthen? Bearish GER 40 Ahead?

John Benjamin John Benjamin 23.02.2022 08:52
EURUSD bounces off support The euro surged over signs that Moscow may remain open to diplomacy. The pair found support at the base of the previous rally (1.1290), indicating the bulls’ commitment to keeping the rebound intact. The RSI’s oversold situation attracted a slew of bargain hunters betting on a lengthy rebound. A break above 1.1390 would prompt sellers to cover and pave the way for a sustained recovery. The recent peak and daily resistance at 1.1490 is a major hurdle. Its breach could extend the rally to 1.1600. EURGBP attempts reversal The sterling whipsawed after BOE officials’ comment about a “modest” rate hike over the coming months. The euro saw strong bids at the base of the February breakout rally (0.8310). A break above 0.8370 wiped out some selling interest, a prerequisite for a meaningful recovery. 0.8400 is the next resistance and its breach would further boost buyers’ confidence and propel the single currency to the recent high at 0.8475. On the downside, a bearish breakout would invalidate the rebound pattern and cause a sell-off below 0.8280. GER 40 breaks floor Trepid sentiment continues to weigh on the Dax. The plunge below the 9-month long consolidation area (14850) may foreshadow a bear market. As traders grew wary, trapped bulls would look to get out of their positions while the bears saw any rebound as an opportunity to sell into strength. An oversold RSI brought in some bids and 14850 is the immediate resistance. However, the index would remain under unless it lifts offers around 15200. Otherwise, the psychological level of 14000 would be the next stop.
USDRUB Went Up To A Really High Level. Will USD To RUB It Reach $90?

USDRUB Went Up To A Really High Level. Will USD To RUB It Reach $90?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.02.2022 08:57
The end of trading on Wednesday indicated growing concern as the ruble went into a sharp dive and the early start of trading marked increased sales. We saw 95.2425 for the euro and 84.075 for the dollar. After that, trading was halted as stock prices hit the lower limits set by the exchange, and there were no buyers in the stock order books - only sellers. The Moscow Exchange has suspended trading on all markets, including the currency and stock sections. SPB Exchange has suspended trading from 08:10 Moscow time for all types of securities and all trading modes. The ruble in indicative trading lost more than 10% against the dollar and the euro, the rate of which exceeds 90 and 101 rubles, respectively. Practically all financial instruments traded at the morning session are resting on the lower bars set by the exchange. Everything happened after the special operation announced by President Putin in the Donbass and reports of the shelling of military airports throughout Ukraine. The Bank of Russia announced the start of interventions in the foreign exchange market in order to slightly restrain the panicky unilateral fall of the ruble, which at the moment allowed the exchange rate to retreat from extremes. However, in such situations, it is pointless to wait for a reversal. The actions of central banks always only soften the blow but do not reverse the market. Despite the interventions and suspension of trading, extreme pressure on the Russian market promises to persist in the coming days. This is truly a new reality that we have not seen throughout our lives. The situation with Ukraine is developing according to the most dramatic scenario and will inevitably entail the most severe consequences that Russia has threatened in recent days. It is difficult to talk about some levels where the Russian currency or the market as a whole can stabilize. Recent events have pushed the ruble into uncharted territory. The latest quotes of the ruble on the Moscow Exchange show a price of 84 per dollar, and in indicative trading, it is already reaching 90. It looks like the ruble will slide very quickly down to 110 per dollar in the coming days and weeks. And near these levels, it will be necessary to look at the situation. In general, the fall of the ruble promises to carry on in the near future, while the shelling continues and the most severe sanctions are imposed on Russia. Hopes for stabilization now we can get only from politicians. The Ukrainian hryvnia, like the ruble, is trading below the levels from which it has repeatedly turned to growth since 2014. Here, too, the market has crossed the line of the conventional norm of the last eight years. From the current levels near 30 hryvnias per dollar, the outcome of this fall should be looked for, perhaps, at about 40.
Food prices are breaking multi-year highs, and the CBs are helpless

Food prices are breaking multi-year highs, and the CBs are helpless

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.02.2022 10:40
Wheat futures on the CBOE are up 16% since the start of the week, the biggest rally since the poor harvest in 2012. At one point yesterday, the weekly rise was close to 20%. The price level was the highest since April 2008, as traders anxiously assessed the impact of the conflict between two of the world’s biggest exporters of wheat, corn, and other agricultural products. The FAO’s Food Price Index in January was near its 2011 peak (in nominal terms) and one step below its 1974 peak - a time of stagflation and the aftermath of the oil crisis. And the latest spike in grains prices suggests that these highs will already be surpassed in February. It means that people will spend more on food and less on durable goods and services, worsening living standards. Such price hikes are an additional headache for central banks around the world. They may find themselves forced to turn a blind eye to inflation so as not to put the economy and consumer demand under additional stress. But this is terrible news for currencies. Forced inflation tolerance by the Central Bank will depreciate the value of money and suppress the exchange rate. This promises to be a problem for the euro and the British pound. High inflation may no longer be a reason to buy the euro and the pound against the dollar on the forex market, as it would not increase the chances of a tightening of the central bank policy in the coming months. There could also be a reverse reaction when currencies come under pressure as investors sell off local bonds amid falling real yields.
COT Forex Speculators pushed their Euro Currency bullish bets to 32-week high

COT Forex Speculators pushed their Euro Currency bullish bets to 32-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.02.2022 20:04
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further rise in bullish bets in the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators raised their bullish bets for a third straight week this week and for the ninth time in the past ten weeks. Over this ten-week time-frame, Euro bets have gained by a total of +71,185 contracts, going from -10,162 net positions on December 12th to a total of +59,306 net positions through this Tuesday the 22nd of February (please note that this is a couple days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine). Overall, the current Euro standing is at the most bullish level of the past thirty-two weeks, dating back to July 13th when the net position was at +59,713 contracts. Joining the Euro (11,725 contracts) with positive speculator changes this week were the yen (2,975 contracts), Brazil real (685 contracts), US Dollar Index (698 contracts), Australian dollar (2,614 contracts), Russian ruble (3,353 contracts) and the Mexican peso (7,851 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Swiss franc (-1,272 contracts), British pound sterling (-8,046 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,218 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,917 contracts) and Bitcoin (-68 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Feb-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,922 78 36,084 88 -41,368 6 5,284 74 EUR 696,682 82 59,306 53 -98,050 48 38,744 39 GBP 188,443 31 -5,809 70 10,070 36 -4,261 47 JPY 194,169 51 -63,187 28 82,480 77 -19,293 8 CHF 47,339 24 -10,987 51 19,110 52 -8,123 39 CAD 140,305 24 9,253 57 -14,143 47 4,890 40 AUD 192,579 77 -84,080 7 96,072 91 -11,992 23 NZD 56,636 56 -11,551 52 13,908 52 -2,357 25 MXN 171,299 36 16,825 35 -21,038 64 4,213 61 RUB 38,673 34 19,517 60 -20,053 40 536 49 BRL 94,577 100 24,445 100 -27,081 0 2,636 97 Bitcoin 11,007 59 -283 91 -256 0 539 25   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,386 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.6 5.0 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.9 80.3 3.1 – Net Position: 36,084 -41,368 5,284 – Gross Longs: 43,726 2,742 6,969 – Gross Shorts: 7,642 44,110 1,685 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.7 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.0 5.9 74.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.1 4.6 -10.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 59,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.7 54.5 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.2 68.6 7.3 – Net Position: 59,306 -98,050 38,744 – Gross Longs: 214,195 379,583 89,334 – Gross Shorts: 154,889 477,633 50,590 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.2 48.0 38.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.4 -18.3 18.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,237 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.4 61.8 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.5 56.4 15.1 – Net Position: -5,809 10,070 -4,261 – Gross Longs: 42,249 116,372 24,154 – Gross Shorts: 48,058 106,302 28,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 35.6 46.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.8 -16.5 9.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,162 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.7 83.5 9.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.2 41.0 19.1 – Net Position: -63,187 82,480 -19,293 – Gross Longs: 10,976 162,044 17,881 – Gross Shorts: 74,163 79,564 37,174 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.1 77.2 8.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.4 -12.8 3.4   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.0 71.2 20.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.2 30.9 37.6 – Net Position: -10,987 19,110 -8,123 – Gross Longs: 3,785 33,718 9,691 – Gross Shorts: 14,772 14,608 17,814 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 52.3 39.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 4.0 -0.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,170 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.0 41.6 21.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.4 51.7 18.1 – Net Position: 9,253 -14,143 4,890 – Gross Longs: 47,661 58,345 30,327 – Gross Shorts: 38,408 72,488 25,437 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.6 47.3 39.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.1 -11.2 -1.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -84,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,694 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 81.7 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.7 31.9 15.8 – Net Position: -84,080 96,072 -11,992 – Gross Longs: 11,553 157,416 18,459 – Gross Shorts: 95,633 61,344 30,451 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.9 90.6 23.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.9 -5.6 0.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,333 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 62.6 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.0 38.1 8.8 – Net Position: -11,551 13,908 -2,357 – Gross Longs: 17,343 35,481 2,608 – Gross Shorts: 28,894 21,573 4,965 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 51.8 24.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 5.6 -7.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,974 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.5 53.0 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 65.3 1.7 – Net Position: 16,825 -21,038 4,213 – Gross Longs: 72,846 90,784 7,091 – Gross Shorts: 56,021 111,822 2,878 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 64.0 60.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -9.3 4.2   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 40.2 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 68.9 2.0 – Net Position: 24,445 -27,081 2,636 – Gross Longs: 51,990 38,039 4,541 – Gross Shorts: 27,545 65,120 1,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 46.6 -49.2 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,517 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,164 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.5 35.9 5.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.0 87.8 4.2 – Net Position: 19,517 -20,053 536 – Gross Longs: 22,625 13,895 2,152 – Gross Shorts: 3,108 33,948 1,616 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 39.6 49.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.4 -20.6 -25.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -68 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 2.9 12.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.8 5.3 7.3 – Net Position: -283 -256 539 – Gross Longs: 8,501 322 1,338 – Gross Shorts: 8,784 578 799 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.7 19.3 25.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.1 -6.1 -0.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March

Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 26.02.2022 19:00
As we head into a new month, Boris Schlossberg of BKForex takes over the reins for our Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead for the month of March. Amidst an increasingly volatile background driven by geopolitical tensions, Boris gives his take on the assets that matter this week, looking at current short-term positions for Gold and Oil, as well as potential setups for indices and forex from both a technical and fundamental perspective. Watch the video below to get all the insight ahead of market open today. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Tuesday CNY Manufacturing PMI AUD RBA Interest Rate Decison Wednesday EUR German Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate EUR Eurozone CPI CAD GDP USD Markit Manufacturing PMI AUD GDP Thursday CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Friday USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Saturday USD Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March appeared first on Eightcap.
Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March - 27.02.2022

Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March - 27.02.2022

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 27.02.2022 19:00
As we head into a new month, Boris Schlossberg of BKForex takes over the reins for our Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead for the month of March. Amidst an increasingly volatile background driven by geopolitical tensions, Boris gives his take on the assets that matter this week, looking at current short-term positions for Gold and Oil, as well as potential setups for indices and forex from both a technical and fundamental perspective. Watch the video below to get all the insight ahead of market open today. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Tuesday CNY Manufacturing PMI AUD RBA Interest Rate Decison Wednesday EUR German Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate EUR Eurozone CPI CAD GDP USD Markit Manufacturing PMI AUD GDP Thursday CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Friday USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Saturday USD Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 28th February – 4th March appeared first on Eightcap.
Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

Invest Macro Invest Macro 05.03.2022 20:47
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the jump in bullish bets in the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators increased their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and by a total of +63,801 contracts over this four-week time-frame. This bullishness has taken the Real speculator level from -13,353 net positions on February 1st to +50,448 net positions this week. The current overall speculator standing has now climbed to the most bullish level on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to the mid-1990’s and eclipsing the previous high set in 2017. The BRLUSD currency pair price has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year and has reached the highest levels since June just below the 0.2000 exchange rate. The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (26,003 contracts), Mexican peso (25,553 contracts), Euro (5,633 contracts), British pound sterling (5,472 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,887 contracts), Australian dollar (5,744 contracts) and Bitcoin (363 contracts). The currencies with lower speculator bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,310 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,545 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,261 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,621 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-9,843 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-01-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 56,651 82 34,774 86 -39,391 9 4,617 67 EUR 719,975 91 64,939 55 -95,105 49 30,166 24 GBP 211,869 46 -337 74 14,129 38 -13,792 27 JPY 208,629 61 -68,732 25 79,535 76 -10,803 27 CHF 47,273 24 -15,248 43 20,862 54 -5,614 47 CAD 143,507 26 14,140 61 -21,586 42 7,446 45 AUD 189,667 75 -78,336 12 87,737 84 -9,401 30 NZD 50,389 44 -14,172 47 16,090 55 -1,918 30 MXN 154,664 28 42,378 45 -45,811 54 3,433 58 RUB 24,753 11 9,674 36 -9,068 65 -606 18 BRL 94,577 100 24,445 74 -27,081 25 2,636 97 Bitcoin 9,980 51 80 99 -517 0 437 23   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,084 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 8.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.9 78.1 2.3 – Net Position: 34,774 -39,391 4,617 – Gross Longs: 43,761 4,831 5,942 – Gross Shorts: 8,987 44,222 1,325 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.1 to 1 4.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 9.1 67.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.9 5.0 -14.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,306 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.7 54.2 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 67.4 7.5 – Net Position: 64,939 -95,105 30,166 – Gross Longs: 228,385 390,260 84,321 – Gross Shorts: 163,446 485,365 54,155 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.9 48.8 24.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.4 -12.6 7.1   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,809 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 62.1 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 55.4 17.2 – Net Position: -337 14,129 -13,792 – Gross Longs: 47,679 131,583 22,551 – Gross Shorts: 48,016 117,454 36,343 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.8 38.0 27.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 6.7 -23.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -68,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,187 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 80.3 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 42.2 15.9 – Net Position: -68,732 79,535 -10,803 – Gross Longs: 14,665 167,605 22,407 – Gross Shorts: 83,397 88,070 33,210 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.6 75.7 26.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -10.0 17.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -15,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,987 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.5 74.1 21.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.7 30.0 33.3 – Net Position: -15,248 20,862 -5,614 – Gross Longs: 1,651 35,045 10,127 – Gross Shorts: 16,899 14,183 15,741 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.3 54.3 46.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.8 8.0 -7.7   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,253 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.5 40.1 21.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.6 55.2 16.3 – Net Position: 14,140 -21,586 7,446 – Gross Longs: 50,881 57,576 30,817 – Gross Shorts: 36,741 79,162 23,371 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.4 42.2 44.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -5.4 2.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -78,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,080 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.7 80.1 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.0 33.8 15.4 – Net Position: -78,336 87,737 -9,401 – Gross Longs: 12,720 151,922 19,865 – Gross Shorts: 91,056 64,185 29,266 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.2 84.4 29.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.4 -8.0 1.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,551 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 72.1 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 40.2 9.1 – Net Position: -14,172 16,090 -1,918 – Gross Longs: 10,485 36,326 2,665 – Gross Shorts: 24,657 20,236 4,583 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.5 55.2 29.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 8.4 4.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 42,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,825 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.5 46.9 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.1 76.5 1.9 – Net Position: 42,378 -45,811 3,433 – Gross Longs: 74,971 72,497 6,306 – Gross Shorts: 32,593 118,308 2,873 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.4 53.7 57.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.0 -16.0 3.7   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.0 40.2 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 68.9 2.0 – Net Position: 24,445 -27,081 2,636 – Gross Longs: 51,990 38,039 4,541 – Gross Shorts: 27,545 65,120 1,905 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.4 24.7 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.7 -37.1 31.8   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,517 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 51.9 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 88.5 5.9 – Net Position: 9,674 -9,068 -606 – Gross Longs: 11,050 12,848 855 – Gross Shorts: 1,376 21,916 1,461 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.3 64.8 18.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.7 -4.2 -39.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 80 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.0 3.2 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.2 8.4 7.6 – Net Position: 80 -517 437 – Gross Longs: 7,981 321 1,198 – Gross Shorts: 7,901 838 761 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.7 0.0 22.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -39.7 -3.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Currency Speculators boost Mexican Peso bullish bets to 104-week high

COT Currency Speculators boost Mexican Peso bullish bets to 104-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.03.2022 22:20
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising bullish sentiment in the Mexican Peso currency futures contracts. Peso speculators have boosted their bullish bets for six consecutive weeks and in nine out of the past ten weeks. Over the past six-week time-frame, Peso bets have gained by a total of +53.807 contracts, going from -790 net positions on January 25th to +53,017 net positions this week. This recent improvement in Peso positioning pushed the current net speculator standing (+53,017 contracts) to the most bullish level in the past one hundred and four weeks, dating back to March 10th of 2020. Joining the Mexican peso (10,639 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (12,876 contracts), Brazil real (48 contracts), Swiss franc (5,538 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,793 contracts), Australian dollar (141 contracts) and Bitcoin (185 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-730 contracts), Euro (-6,095 contracts), British pound sterling (-12,189 contracts), Canadian dollar (-6,494 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-1,868 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-08-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 62,447 95 34,044 85 -37,890 12 3,846 59 EUR 738,990 98 58,844 53 -83,873 52 25,029 16 GBP 246,312 68 -12,526 65 25,457 45 -12,931 29 JPY 208,683 61 -55,856 33 76,657 74 -20,801 5 CHF 51,820 30 -9,710 53 21,942 56 -12,232 27 CAD 149,425 30 7,646 55 -15,494 46 7,848 45 AUD 197,094 80 -78,195 12 78,183 77 12 52 NZD 53,250 50 -12,379 50 13,592 51 -1,213 38 MXN 166,433 34 53,017 50 -55,194 50 2,177 52 RUB 22,420 7 7,806 32 -7,325 69 -481 22 BRL 68,623 65 50,496 100 -52,564 0 2,068 90 Bitcoin 9,591 48 265 100 -422 0 157 17   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 34,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,774 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.7 12.8 9.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.2 73.4 2.9 – Net Position: 34,044 -37,890 3,846 – Gross Longs: 46,031 7,962 5,642 – Gross Shorts: 11,987 45,852 1,796 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.5 11.6 58.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 7.7 -19.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,939 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 52.3 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.9 63.7 8.2 – Net Position: 58,844 -83,873 25,029 – Gross Longs: 242,683 386,654 85,727 – Gross Shorts: 183,839 470,527 60,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.1 52.0 15.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.4 -7.8 0.5   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -337 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.7 66.8 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 56.4 14.6 – Net Position: -12,526 25,457 -12,931 – Gross Longs: 50,982 164,423 23,076 – Gross Shorts: 63,508 138,966 36,007 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.0 44.7 28.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 5.1 -8.0   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,732 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 81.6 8.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.2 44.9 18.1 – Net Position: -55,856 76,657 -20,801 – Gross Longs: 15,548 170,330 16,884 – Gross Shorts: 71,404 93,673 37,685 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.7 74.3 4.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -3.1 -13.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,248 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.4 70.7 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 28.4 40.9 – Net Position: -9,710 21,942 -12,232 – Gross Longs: 4,856 36,635 8,947 – Gross Shorts: 14,566 14,693 21,179 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 55.5 27.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.6 9.6 -22.1   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,140 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.5 41.7 22.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.3 52.1 17.5 – Net Position: 7,646 -15,494 7,848 – Gross Longs: 48,492 62,360 33,951 – Gross Shorts: 40,846 77,854 26,103 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.1 46.4 45.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.5 2.8 1.2   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -78,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 141 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,336 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.9 74.1 13.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 34.5 13.0 – Net Position: -78,195 78,183 12 – Gross Longs: 19,521 146,144 25,564 – Gross Shorts: 97,716 67,961 25,552 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.3 77.2 52.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.7 -14.6 35.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,172 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 62.0 5.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 36.5 7.5 – Net Position: -12,379 13,592 -1,213 – Gross Longs: 15,775 33,005 2,792 – Gross Shorts: 28,154 19,413 4,005 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 51.3 37.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.7 0.5 14.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 53,017 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,378 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.7 36.4 3.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.8 69.5 2.1 – Net Position: 53,017 -55,194 2,177 – Gross Longs: 76,020 60,537 5,674 – Gross Shorts: 23,003 115,731 3,497 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 49.8 52.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.9 -22.4 -0.4   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 48 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,448 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 15.3 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.9 91.9 2.1 – Net Position: 50,496 -52,564 2,068 – Gross Longs: 54,543 10,468 3,488 – Gross Shorts: 4,047 63,032 1,420 – Long to Short Ratio: 13.5 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 90.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 62.0 -62.3 8.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,674 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.5 60.6 2.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 1.6 93.3 5.1 – Net Position: 7,806 -7,325 -481 – Gross Longs: 8,173 13,590 657 – Gross Shorts: 367 20,915 1,138 – Long to Short Ratio: 22.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.9 68.7 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -7.0 -22.4   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.9 2.8 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.1 7.2 8.3 – Net Position: 265 -422 157 – Gross Longs: 7,760 272 950 – Gross Shorts: 7,495 694 793 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 7.6 16.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 4.5 -8.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 14th – 18th March

Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 14th – 18th March

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 13.03.2022 19:00
It’s a big week for the US Fed this week, as it meets to push through its first increase in interest rates since the pandemic, against an increasingly volatile situation in Ukraine. Last week, the markets witnessed parabolic moves for both oil and gold as risk-off sentiment increased, however, those moves didn’t last long and soon reversed. As the trading bell tolls this week, the headlines will continue to be driven by fundamental factors, which will no doubt drive even further volatility if things seemingly get worse. In today’s Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead, we examine those severe moves in Oil and Gold, while also looking ahead at a few pertinent forex pairs, as well as the Nasdaq and Bitcoin. Watch the video below to get this week’s insights ahead of the market open. https://youtu.be/zifdtVdCcK0 Join us this Wednesday at 10PM AEDT (11AM GMT) as Boris and Kathy take you through another live market update, focusing on how price action is shaping up into the weekend. It’s the perfect session to get valuable insight into what’s hot in the financial markets, as well as give you the opportunity to ask the experts your questions in the live Q&A. Click the banner below to register. Registration is free. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Tuesday AUD RBA Meeting Minutes USD PPI Wednesday JPY Balance of Trade CAD CPI USD Core Retail Sales Thursday USD Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Press Conference NZD GDP AUD RBA Bulletin, Unemployment Rate GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision Friday JPY Inflation Rate, BoJ Interest Rate Decision The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 14th – 18th March appeared first on Eightcap.
How Will The Day End For Forex And USD? Awaiting Fed Decision....

How Will The Day End For Forex And USD? Awaiting Fed Decision....

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 16.03.2022 11:41
Today, the USD has continued its move lower, with fresh selling accelerating today. Ukrainian comments that peace talks are looking more realistic has set off risk demand with traders moving out of safe-havens and back into traditional risk markets like stocks and risk currencies like the AUD, GBP and EUR. Stock indexes in Europe and US futures are seeing firm gains heading towards the US session open. The Fed is another factor to watch today, and they meet at 2 pm ET. The FED is expected to raise rates by one-quarter of a percent, its first move higher since 2018. “My guess is it’s going to sound a little more hawkish than people want it to sound, and that’s going to be a little tough to digest, particularly in the fixed income markets,” David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Tuesday. “I think the equity market might digest it a little bit better, but it’s going to be a tough swallow.” Hawkish is normally seen as a positive for the country’s currency, but we wonder how much could be factored in from the Fed? Could it disappoint an already weak USD? It will be interesting to see if the Fed can overrule factors in Europe that have been supporting higher USD values. Oil continues to sell off from highs, inflation fears on the front might have started to cool off on the short term. We can see a LH on the daily USD chart. If this point can continue to hold, we will look for the new short term trend to remain in play—a break and close above the LH at 99.07. We will be looking for bulls to resume their push. USD Daily Chart The post Forex Update: Could the FED add to the USD woes? appeared first on Eightcap.
Forex Update: Could the FED add to the USD woes?

Forex Update: Could the FED add to the USD woes?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 17.03.2022 11:41
Today, the USD has continued its downside move, with fresh selling accelerating. The Ukrainian comments that peace talks are looking more realistic has set off risk demand with traders moving out of safe-havens and back into traditional risk assets, including stocks and currencies like AUD, GBP and EUR. Meanwhile, stock indexes in Europe and US futures are seeing firm gains heading towards the US session open. The Fed is another factor to watch today, because they’ll meet at 2 pm ET. FOMC is expected to raise rates by one-quarter of a percent, which will be its first move higher since 2018. “My guess is it’s going to sound a little more hawkish than people want it to sound, and that’s going to be a little tough to digest, particularly in the fixed income markets,”, David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Tuesday. “I think the equity market might digest it a little better, but it’s going to be a tough swallow.” Hawkish is normally seen as a positive for the country’s currency, but we wonder how much could be factored in from the Fed? Could it disappoint an already weak USD? It will be interesting to see if the Fed can overrule factors in Europe that have been supporting higher USD values. Oil continues to sell off from its highs. On other hand, inflation fears on the front might have started to cool off in the short-term. We can see the lower highs (LH) on the daily US Dollar Index chart. If this point can continue to hold, we will look for a new short-term trend to remain in play—a break and close above the LH at 99.07. We will be looking for bulls to resume their push. USD Daily Chart The post Forex Update: Could the FED add to the USD woes? appeared first on Eightcap.
FX Brokerage. How to Start a Brokerage Company?

FX Brokerage. How to Start a Brokerage Company?

B2Brokers Group of Companies B2Brokers Group of Companies 17.03.2022 11:57
How to Start a Brokerage Company If you want to launch a brokerage company, you need to do some research on how to get started with a brokerage firm and then build a successful business plan that contains important elements such as where to register your brokerage and the trading instruments you want to provide. A white label brokerage solution or starting from scratch should also be considered. The following is a list of the steps involved in starting a forex trading firm. A Step-by-Step Guide to Start an FX Brokerage Firm From the Ground Up Acquaintance with legal requirements When launching a brokerage firm, the first step is to familiarise yourself with the legislation and legal requirements. The solutions that apply to your organisation are determined by its geography and target market. To begin with, you should check out the regulations governing forex brokers in the nation in which you intend to establish your firm. Additionally, it would be beneficial if you determined your target market. Locate a legal firm in that location that can assist you with the licensing procedure. Your FX brokerage company location The product selection you make will play a role in determining where your brokerage company is registered. Certain governments are more tolerant of brokerage businesses. Due to the fact that requirements for stock broker license obtaining differ by nation, it is often prudent to consider off-shore territories and forex-friendly countries such as Estonia, Cyprus, and the British Virgin Islands. Creating a business plan for a forex brokerage Along with sufficient start-up cash and regulatory compliance, you'll need a well-defined company plan, as well as the ability to evaluate and target the market. Define your target audience and the breadth of the services you will offer. Is your trading platform intended to handle simple fiat currency trading, or do you intend to add cryptocurrency trading as well? Prepare an FX brokerage business strategy thoroughly in advance and leave ample time for the procedure. Putting staff together When opening a forex firm, your staff of IT, marketing, accounting, and legal specialists is critical. To become a forex ECN broker and ensure that the platform runs well, you will require a team of IT specialists, accountants, attorneys, and support employees. This is the very minimum requirement to ensure compliance with data protection rules and the timely resolution of any technical and legal difficulties. Brokerage businesses are frequently the primary target of cybercriminals due to the number of financial transactions they perform and store. As a result, you want a trustworthy solution to safeguard your software, website, and payment processing gateways. Even if your virtual office is initially without a real location, it should be completely functional and safe. Establishing a corporate banking relationship The registration procedure begins with the establishment of company bank accounts. You will need to negotiate a line of credit with a bank if you intend to take over margin trading. Certain banks employ lengthy and complicated verification and approval processes. You may be required to appear in person for AML verification processes or to retain the services of a local attorney who will act as your legal representative on all official issues. Establishing contact with a liquidity provider Liquidity will be at the heart of your firm since you will need to provide traders with the ability to trade with leverage. When selecting a liquidity provider, take your time and ultimately choose one that combines liquidity from the largest financial institutions and gives the best pricing. The more favourable rates you obtain, the more favourable spreads you can give your clients. Developing a relationship with a payment processor Connecting with reputable payment service providers is critical for efficiently receiving payments from clients when setting up a forex trading company. Transaction fees are assessed by payment service providers. As a result, the fewer these costs are, the more beneficial rates and trading circumstances your clients will have. PSP has access to the funds of your business. That is why it is critical to select a trustworthy and well-established PSP. Creating a trading platform of your own This process comprises the design of your FX broker's website, as well as determining which trading platform to employ and which extra services you want to incorporate. According to the market, MetaTrader 4 and 5 are the two most popular trading platforms. Perhaps those solutions are not the most comprehensive, but the vast majority of tutorials and instructional resources are based on MT4/5. This is why traders are also on the lookout for such platforms. Your trading platform pre-launch After you've completed the critical procedures for starting forex brokerage firms, you'll need to thoroughly evaluate all the technical components of your trading platform. This pre-launch method helps you address any concerns or difficulties that may arise prior to going live. After confirming that everything is operational, you're ready to develop successful marketing methods for reaching out to prospective clients. Developing a marketing strategy It should span at least two years and contain a strategy for how to attract new traders and achieve SEO and PPC objectives. Additionally, you must track every dollar spent on your campaign and assemble a team of professionals that will assess success and ensure that your FX brokerage firm scales appropriately. While this is the final phase, it must be addressed while creating a company strategy. You should be prepared to set aside more funds to establish a marketing department. White Label Approach Due to the extensive and time-consuming procedures that must be performed in order to start a forex brokerage from scratch, many ambitious brokers opt to buy an existing FX brokerage instead. Because it is built on forex brokerage software that has been fully tested and confirmed to be operational, this is referred to as a "white label solution." Buying a white label solution is an excellent investment for brokers, as it relieves them of the burden of dealing with technological limitations, installation difficulties, and continuing maintenance challenges. Another clear advantage of FX white label systems is their overall lower operational costs. Paying for a use licence is far less expensive than designing a solution on your own, and in the scenario where your white label supplier processes the trading activities directly, you also save the hassle and expense of complying with capital requirements. By partnering with an expert in WL forex solutions, such as B2Broker, you can benefit from the implementation of a professional, pre-built solution, allowing you to launch your own brokerage in a matter of weeks while avoiding the numerous pitfalls you may encounter when you start a brokerage firm from scratch. Conclusion After all, there are two points worth emphasising: The forex brokerage sector is a highly profitable one; Establishing your own FX brokerage firm might be prohibitively expensive. Notably, in order to develop a competitive brokerage firm, you must perform several duties and have a sufficient budget. That is why, in the early stages, launching an FX brokerage through a forex white label solution may be a superior option. For entrepreneurs just starting out, this implies that after you have a stable client base and a higher volume of trading activities, you may begin developing your own brokerage firm with complete control and profit margins of 100%.
Large Forex Speculators boosted their bets of Commodity Currencies this week

Large Forex Speculators boosted their bets of Commodity Currencies this week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 19.03.2022 17:45
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the strong speculator sentiment for the commodity currencies in the currency futures contracts. The Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar all saw boosts in their bets that either pushed their bullish standings higher or sharply reduced their bearish levels this week. The Australian dollar saw the largest improvement with a huge net gain of over +33,000 contracts this week which marked the largest one-week increase in the past three hundred and sixty-five weeks, dating all the way back to March of 2015. This week’s gain dropped the AUD’s current bearish standing down to -44,856 contracts from approximately -78,000 contracts in the previous week. The New Zealand dollar contracts saw a one-week gain of +16,032 contracts which marked its largest one-week rise in the past one hundred and seventeen weeks (back to December of 2017). This rise brought the NZD speculator positions out of bearish territory for the first time in fourteen weeks to a very small bullish level of +3,653 contracts. Finally, the Canadian dollar contracts increased by a net position of +10,094 contracts this week after falling in four out of the previous five weeks. This climb in speculative bets brings the current CAD bullish standing to the best level of the past six weeks. Overall, the currency markets with higher speculator bets this week were the New Zealand dollar (16,032 contracts), Canadian dollar (10,094 contracts), Swiss franc (4,481 contracts) and the Australian dollar (33,339 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-5,664 contracts), Mexican peso (-63,593 contracts), Euro (-40,050 contracts), Japanese yen (-6,484 contracts), Brazil real (-6,333 contracts), British pound sterling (-16,535 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-75 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 47,574 62 28,380 75 -31,969 21 3,589 56 EUR 666,010 70 18,794 41 -42,629 64 23,835 14 GBP 188,323 31 -29,061 53 37,279 52 -8,218 39 JPY 215,484 65 -62,340 29 87,597 80 -25,257 0 CHF 43,356 19 -5,229 61 17,460 50 -12,231 27 CAD 143,863 26 17,740 65 -13,145 50 -4,595 21 AUD 124,521 25 -44,856 43 48,640 55 -3,784 43 NZD 39,200 23 3,653 77 -1,815 28 -1,838 31 MXN 102,749 4 -10,576 23 7,848 76 2,728 55 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 68,874 65 44,163 94 -46,800 6 2,637 97 Bitcoin 10,198 53 190 98 -453 0 263 19   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 28,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,044 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.6 3.1 11.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.9 70.3 3.5 – Net Position: 28,380 -31,969 3,589 – Gross Longs: 39,767 1,452 5,242 – Gross Shorts: 11,387 33,421 1,653 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.7 21.5 55.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.7 16.5 -40.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -40,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,844 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 55.4 11.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.5 61.8 7.7 – Net Position: 18,794 -42,629 23,835 – Gross Longs: 202,040 369,253 75,191 – Gross Shorts: 183,246 411,882 51,356 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.8 63.7 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 4.2 -6.5   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,526 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.2 66.9 12.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.7 47.1 16.9 – Net Position: -29,061 37,279 -8,218 – Gross Longs: 32,442 125,994 23,650 – Gross Shorts: 61,503 88,715 31,868 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.1 51.7 38.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.9 5.0 -6.1   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,856 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.8 75.7 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.7 35.0 18.9 – Net Position: -62,340 87,597 -25,257 – Gross Longs: 34,016 163,089 15,533 – Gross Shorts: 96,356 75,492 40,790 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.6 79.7 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.1 4.1 -13.6   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,710 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 66.3 20.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.5 26.1 48.4 – Net Position: -5,229 17,460 -12,231 – Gross Longs: 5,808 28,761 8,768 – Gross Shorts: 11,037 11,301 20,999 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.8 50.5 27.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 1.0 -11.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,646 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.0 41.3 20.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 20.6 50.4 23.5 – Net Position: 17,740 -13,145 -4,595 – Gross Longs: 47,406 59,344 29,213 – Gross Shorts: 29,666 72,489 33,808 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.9 50.0 20.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.5 9.0 -23.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 33,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,195 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.5 62.3 15.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.5 23.3 18.6 – Net Position: -44,856 48,640 -3,784 – Gross Longs: 24,281 77,621 19,378 – Gross Shorts: 69,137 28,981 23,162 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.2 55.2 43.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.4 -35.4 30.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,379 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.8 37.4 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5 42.1 10.9 – Net Position: 3,653 -1,815 -1,838 – Gross Longs: 21,493 14,671 2,417 – Gross Shorts: 17,840 16,486 4,255 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.4 27.6 30.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 25.8 -24.4 5.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,576 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -63,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,017 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.1 55.1 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.4 47.5 3.5 – Net Position: -10,576 7,848 2,728 – Gross Longs: 39,164 56,610 6,302 – Gross Shorts: 49,740 48,762 3,574 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.8 76.1 54.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.8 4.9 -1.7   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 44,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,496 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.1 13.7 6.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.0 81.7 2.3 – Net Position: 44,163 -46,800 2,637 – Gross Longs: 55,181 9,444 4,239 – Gross Shorts: 11,018 56,244 1,602 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.8 5.6 97.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 56.5 -55.9 -3.0   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 190 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -75 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 265 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.3 2.7 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.5 7.2 7.5 – Net Position: 190 -453 263 – Gross Longs: 7,989 279 1,029 – Gross Shorts: 7,799 732 766 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.4 5.1 18.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 3.0 -2.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 21st – 25th March

Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 21st – 25th March

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 20.03.2022 21:19
As expected, The Fed came out last week and approved a quarter percentage point interest rate rise,  its first since December 2018 and possibly one of many more to come as the U.S. faces up to rampant inflation. With that big decision now priced into the markets, all eyes will be on whether stocks will be able to sustain last week’s fresh gains into a second week. There are still many headlines to be written and with the Ukrainian conflict entering its second month, there may be many more twists and turns. In today’s Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead, we look ahead at potential moves in equities, oil, gold, Bitcoin and also discuss why forex might now be an interesting play. Watch the video below to get this week’s latest insights. REGISTER FOR THIS WEEK’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE WITH BORIS AND KATHY Join us at 10 PM AEDT (11 AM GMT) this Wednesday as Boris and Kathy once again take you through another midweek live market update, discussing the key assets and price points to be looking at as the weekend approaches. It’s the perfect session to get valuable insight into what’s currently hot in the financial markets, as well as an opportunity for you to ask your own questions to the experts in a live Q&A. Registration is free. Click below to secure your seat. Boris Schlossberg is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management, Co-Founder of BKForex.com, and Managing Editor of 60secondinvestor.com. Widely known as a leading foreign exchange expert, Boris has more than three decades of financial market experience. In 2007, while still at FXCM, Boris started BKForex with Ms. Kathy Lien. A year later, Boris joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as director of currency research where he provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team with Kathy Lien. Since 2012 Boris has focused exclusively on running BKForex.com where he generates trade ideas and designs algorithms for the FX market in partnership with Ms. Lien. He is the author of “Technical Analysis of the Currency Market” and “Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game”, both of which are published by Wiley. In 2020 Mr. Schlossberg started www.60secondinvestor.com a free website that distils the best of institutional investment research for retail investors. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Monday EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks Tuesday USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks Wednesday EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks GBP CPI GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks Thursday USD Crude Oil Inventories CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Assessment, SNB Press Conference EUR German Manufacturing PMI GBP Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI EUR EU Leaders Summit USD Core Durable Goods Orders USD Initial Jobless Claims Friday GBP Retail Sales EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index EUR EU Leaders Summit The post Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg (BK Forex): 21st – 25th March appeared first on Eightcap.
What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 23.03.2022 21:33
Investors and traders alike are concerned about what investments they should make on behalf of their portfolios and retirement accounts. We, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to monitor stocks and commodities closely due to the Russia-Ukraine War, market volatility, surging inflation, and rising interest rates. Several of our subscribers have asked if changes in monitor policy may lead to a recession as higher rates take a bigger bite out of corporate profits.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. We review our charts for both stocks and commodities to see what we can learn from the most recent price action. Before we dive into that, let’s review the various stages of the market; with special attention given to expansion vs. contraction in a rising interest rate environment which you can see illustrated below.PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIOWe are keeping an especially close eye on the price action of the SPY ETF. The current resistance for the SPY is the 475 top that happened around January 6, 2022. This top was 212.5% of the March 23, 2020, low that was put in at the height of the Covid global pandemic.The SPY found support in the 410 area at the end of February. If you recall (or didn't know), 410 was the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8% percent of the Covid 2020 price drop. Now, after experiencing a nice rally back, of a little over 50%, we are waiting to see if the rally can continue or if rotation will occur, sending the price back lower.COMMODITY MARKETS SURGEDThe commodity markets experienced a tremendous rally due to fast-rising inflation, especially energy, metals, and food prices.The GSG ETF price action shows that we recently touched 200%, or the doubling of the April 21, 2020, low. Immediately following, similar to the SPY, the GSCI commodity index promptly sold off only to then find substantial buying support at the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8 percent of the starting low price of the bull trend. Resistance for the GSG is at 26, and support is 21.A STRENGTHENING US DOLLARThe strengthening US dollar can be attributed to investors seeking a safe haven from geopolitical events, surging inflation, and the Fed beginning to raise rates. The US Dollar is still considered the primary reserve currency as the greatest portion of forex reserves held by central banks are in dollars. Furthermore, most commodities, including gold and crude oil, are also denominated in dollars.Consider the following statement from the Bank of International Settlements www.bis.org ‘Triennial Central Bank Survey’ published September 16, 2019: “The US dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% of all trades.” The report also highlighted, “Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion three years earlier.” That’s a lot of dollars traded globally and confirms that we need to stay current on the dollars price action.Multinational companies are especially keeping a close eye on the dollar as any major shift in global money flows will seriously negatively impact their net profit and subsequent share value.The following chart by www.finviz.com provides us with a current snapshot of the relative performance of the US dollar vs. major global currencies over the past year:KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades earlier this week, two of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Large Currency Speculators sharply cut back on Canadian dollar bets

Large Currency Speculators sharply cut back on Canadian dollar bets

Invest Macro Invest Macro 27.03.2022 13:29
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the sharp pullback in the Canadian dollar currency futures contracts. Canadian dollar speculators cut back on their bullish bets by a total of -22,680 contracts, the largest change among currencies this week and one week after CAD saw bullish bets rise by over +10,000 contracts (bringing the speculator standing to a six-week high). This week’s decline dropped the total net speculator standing back into bearish territory (-4,940 contracts) for the first time in the past ten weeks, dating back to January 11th. The major commodity currencies (Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar) all saw pullbacks in their speculator bets this week after strong rises last week. The only currency markets with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,255 contracts) and the Euro (5,049 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-16,142 contracts), Brazil real (-2,599 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,195 contracts), British pound sterling (-8,183 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,133 contracts), Canadian dollar (-22,680 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-190 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 51,952 72 29,635 77 -33,521 19 3,886 59 EUR 658,817 66 23,843 42 -46,378 63 22,535 12 GBP 195,712 36 -37,244 47 50,390 59 -13,146 28 JPY 248,221 87 -78,482 18 104,790 88 -26,308 0 CHF 44,911 21 -8,424 55 20,499 54 -12,075 28 CAD 124,090 13 -4,940 43 -7,565 54 12,505 55 AUD 127,767 28 -51,189 37 48,388 55 2,801 59 NZD 35,256 15 2,520 75 -2,069 27 -451 47 MXN 134,766 19 -18,051 20 13,919 79 4,132 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,832 68 41,564 91 -44,463 8 2,899 100 Bitcoin 11,274 61 0 94 -481 0 481 24   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,380 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.8 3.2 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 67.7 3.0 – Net Position: 29,635 -33,521 3,886 – Gross Longs: 43,561 1,665 5,434 – Gross Shorts: 13,926 35,186 1,548 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 18.9 59.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 12.1 -34.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,794 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 54.3 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.8 61.3 8.1 – Net Position: 23,843 -46,378 22,535 – Gross Longs: 207,051 357,492 75,970 – Gross Shorts: 183,208 403,870 53,435 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.3 62.6 11.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.6 7.6 -19.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -37,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,061 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.7 70.4 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.8 44.7 16.6 – Net Position: -37,244 50,390 -13,146 – Gross Longs: 32,753 137,829 19,316 – Gross Shorts: 69,997 87,439 32,462 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.2 59.5 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.7 24.3 -25.6   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -78,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,340 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 76.2 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.4 34.0 17.7 – Net Position: -78,482 104,790 -26,308 – Gross Longs: 36,676 189,100 17,749 – Gross Shorts: 115,158 84,310 44,057 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.4 88.2 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.2 14.3 -19.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,229 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 68.3 18.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.1 22.6 45.0 – Net Position: -8,424 20,499 -12,075 – Gross Longs: 6,012 30,663 8,143 – Gross Shorts: 14,436 10,164 20,218 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.2 53.9 27.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 4.0 -13.4   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,740 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.6 47.8 26.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.6 53.9 16.8 – Net Position: -4,940 -7,565 12,505 – Gross Longs: 29,314 59,269 33,406 – Gross Shorts: 34,254 66,834 20,901 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.9 54.1 54.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.2 6.8 20.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,856 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.6 59.4 20.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.7 21.5 17.8 – Net Position: -51,189 48,388 2,801 – Gross Longs: 23,747 75,916 25,508 – Gross Shorts: 74,936 27,528 22,707 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.4 55.0 59.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.0 -37.3 37.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,653 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.7 40.4 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 46.2 10.7 – Net Position: 2,520 -2,069 -451 – Gross Longs: 17,156 14,227 3,339 – Gross Shorts: 14,636 16,296 3,790 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.5 27.2 46.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.6 -22.8 21.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,576 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.1 51.1 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.5 40.8 2.0 – Net Position: -18,051 13,919 4,132 – Gross Longs: 58,150 68,880 6,851 – Gross Shorts: 76,201 54,961 2,719 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.6 78.6 60.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 7.5 5.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,163 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.6 15.3 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 78.1 2.8 – Net Position: 41,564 -44,463 2,899 – Gross Longs: 55,001 10,863 4,851 – Gross Shorts: 13,437 55,326 1,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.2 7.9 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -21.5 8.5   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 0 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 74.7 2.9 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.7 7.2 6.9 – Net Position: 0 -481 481 – Gross Longs: 8,425 326 1,263 – Gross Shorts: 8,425 807 782 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.3 2.9 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.8 -23.4 -0.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Will Fuel Prices Shock Again? Crude Oil Price Almost Hit $120! Will EV Become More Popular Shortly?

Forex Pairs And Currencies Analysis: USD, GBP, CAD, AUD

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 28.03.2022 11:04
March 27, 2022  $USD The recent themes in the foreign exchange market continued last week. On the one hand, the dollar-bloc currencies and Norwegian krona trended higher, while the euro, and especially the yen, traded heavier. On the other hand, although some critics argued that the Fed's 25 bp rate hike earlier this month was too timid, the Fed is signaling it could accelerate the pace. The interest rate adjustment continued in dramatic fashion. The Fed funds futures imply almost a 77% chance of a 50 bp move at the next meeting (May 4). The general resilience of the US economy, the tight labor market (with weekly initial jobless claims falling to new lows since the late 1960s) and upticks in the flash PMI may embolden the Federal Reserve.  The two-year note yield has risen by 50 bp since Russia invaded Ukraine, and it is not done. The consensus that appears to be developing at the Fed favors a march toward neutrality, seen in 2.25%-2.50% by the vast majority of Fed officials. The two-year note yield is near 2.2%, up from a little less than 0.75% at the end of last year.   More than half of the Fed officials and economists think the target rate will have to rise above neutral to counter the inflationary pressures.  A few trends in the foreign exchange market are worth noting. First the yen's weakness. The dollar has risen in 13 of the past 15 sessions against the yen. The rise in US yields and the lack of official resistance appear to have spurred and sustained the move. BOJ's Kuroda was still finding good things to say about the yen's slide ahead of the weekend. Second, the dollar bloc is on fire. The Canadian dollar has strengthened for nine consecutive sessions and 13 of the past 14. Rising commodity prices, the reduction of the US premium at the short-end, and the policy mix, following the Liberal-NDP pace, lend support to the Canadian dollar. The S&P 500 has advanced in seven of the past nine sessions, and this proxy for risk appetites underpinned the Loonie. The Australian dollar has rallied in 10 of the past 13 sessions. Its 3.5% appreciation this month leads the majors. The New Zealand dollar's advance may not be as impressive, but its 2.8% gain against the greenback puts it in second place this month.   Third, Latam currencies continue to shine among the emerging market currencies. High yields, commodity exposure, and the ebbing public health crisis appear to be the main drivers. Contrary to conventional wisdom that seems to believe "everyone" wants weaker exchange rates, currency appreciation is desired throughout the region with price pressures and tighter monetary policy.   Let's drill down.  Dollar Index:  Ahead of the weekend, the Dollar Index successfully tested the 20-day moving average. (~98.40). It has not closed by this moving average since February 22. Still, the high for the move was recorded on March 7 (~99.42), and despite the widening market moving to fully discount 200 bp more of Fed tightening this year, the upside momentum has stalled. The near-term barrier is the downtrend line of this month's highs at the start of the new week, around 99.00. The consolidation pattern is seen to signal the continuation of the trend, which is higher. The MACD and Slow Stochastic have drifted lower but are in the middle of the range. The Slow Stochastic may be trying to turn higher. The Dollar Index peaked in March 2020 near 103.00. However, a break of the 97.70 area would weaken the technical tone.  Euro:  The euro spent the past four sessions in a $1.0960-$1.1040 range. The MACD and Slow Stochastic are trending higher, but the latter has flattened out and could turn lower in the coming days. The flash March PMI showed economic activity more resilient than economists expected. Still, sentiment surveys have weakened materially. The US-German two-year interest rate spread has widened sharply in the US favor (from about 137 bp at the end of last year to above 240 bp at the end of last week.  However, it is not just the US side of the equation that is moving. Since the end of last month, Germany's 2-year yield has risen from almost -80 bp on March 7 to around -15 ahead of the weekend, a new seven-year high. If there was a genuine ceasefire, the euro would likely to recover. The swaps markets anticipate about 45 bp of tightening before the end of this year.  Japanese Yen:   The three-week dollar rally against the yen has stretched momentum indicators and frayed the upper Bollinger Band, which begins next week near JPY122.60. Correlations of the change in the exchange rate and change in US yields are stronger with 10-year rates than the two-year. In the past, US industry (and officials) has often protested against yen weakness, but this time, radio silence. The OECD's measure of Purchasing Power Parity put fair value near JPY96, which makes the yen more than 26% under-valued, second only to the euro's 32% undershoot. With BOJ Governor Kuroda still embracing the benefits of the weak yen, and US rates still trending higher, there is little compelling reason to pick a top in the dollar. The JPY123.75 area may offer resistance, but the next important target is the JPY125.00-JPY125.85 area, where it peaked in 2015. Then Kuroda suggested he did not want to see a move above JPY125.00.   British Pound: Sterling is frustrating. On March 18, it tested a neckline (~$1.32) of a bottoming pattern projected toward $1.34. However, after reaching nearly $1.33 in the middle of the last week, it slipped back to almost $1.3150. The market seemed to judge the Spring budget as milquetoast, and the unexpected drop in February retail sales reported before the weekend was disappointing. That said, the momentum indicators are pointing higher, and the five-day moving average crossed above the 20-day moving average for the first time since late February. The $1.3150 area corresponds to the (50%) retracement of sterling's bounce from the test on $1.3000 on March 14 to the recent high by $1.3300. The next retracement (61.8%) is near $1.3115.  The market-perceived odds of a 50 bp hike at the next meeting in May rose to almost 40% by the end of last week from about 26% the prior week.  Canadian Dollar: The Bank of Canada meets next on April 13. The swaps market now prices roughly an 85% chance of a 50 bp move, up from a 55% chance the previous week. Stronger than expected January retail sales (3.2% instead of 2.4% as the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey had it) may have played a role.  Still, the Liberal-NDP tie-up means more fiscal support was also important. The central bank has suggested that the economy will be operating near full capacity around midyear. The nine-day slide in the greenback saw it fall through the six-month trendline drawn off lows from last October, January, and earlier in March (~CAD1.2565) to test CAD1.25 before the weekend. As one would expect after such a sustained move, the momentum indicators are stretched, and the Slow Stochastic could turn higher. The lower Bollinger Band begins the new week near CAD1.2475. This year's low, set in January, was around CAD1.2450.  Australian Dollar:   The Australian dollar fell by about 5.6% last year, and here in Q1, it has rallied 4% to lead the major currencies. The Aussie's strength has materialized even as the two-year rate differential moved sharply against it. Its discount to the US more than doubled here in March to almost 70 bp. The futures market has pulled the first hike into June from July. The Aussie set a new five-month high ahead of the weekend near $0.7535, which meets the (61.8%) retracement objective of the slide since the $0.8000 was tested last May. The high from last October was closer to $0.7555, where the upper Bollinger Band is found. The momentum indicators are stretched.   Initial support is seen around $0.7450.  Mexican Peso:  AMLO's policies have not been to the liking of investors.   Fiscal policy has not been engaged though around 45% of the population lives below poverty. Still, the peso has appreciated for the past 11 sessions and is at its best level in six months. It is the longest streak in half a century. The greenback took out the MXN20.00 level before the weekend and after the central bank delivered the third consecutive 50 bp hike. The next important technical area is MXN19.50-MXN19.60. By revising higher its inflation forecast, Banxico seemed to signal it intends to hike again. The swaps market has about 120 bp of tightening discounted over the next six months. The move has stretched the momentum indicators, and the lower Bollinger Band is found near MXN19.9060. The MXN20.00-MXN20.05 area that had been support may now serve as resistance. The Brazilian real surge continued. It rose by around 5.6% last week to bring this month's advance to a stunning 8.3%.   The central bank signaled its intention to hike by another 100 bp in May when it meets again to finish the aggressive cycle. The market seems less convinced and has another 50 bp hike.   Chinese Yuan: The dollar rose against the yuan for the fourth consecutive week, its longest streak since last July. Over the four weeks, the greenback has risen slightly less than 0.8%. Even though the PBOC's daily dollar fix is not always stronger than the market projections, it still seems clear that Beijing would prefer a somewhat weaker yuan given the divergence of monetary policy and the recognized need for more stimulus. China's 10-year premium over the US continues to shrink. It halved last week to about 32 bp. It has been a dozen years since the US offered a premium over China, but that is where it appears to be headed. Next week's PMI readings will likely reflect an economy that is struggling. Higher commodity prices, the Covid-related lockdowns, and the loss of the property market as an engine are taking a toll. The dollar's high this month was set on March 15 next CNY6.3860. It is also the year's high. The next important chart point is CNY6.40. Dollar support is seen in the CNY6.3500-CNY6.3550 area.       Disclaimer
Commodities: Crude Oil Price Rallies, Gold Price (XAUUSD) Steady | Oanda

Biden Visits Europe. How Are You Bitcoin? Price Of Crude Oil Have Declined, What About Popular Forex Pairs? Swissquote's MarketTalk

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 28.03.2022 10:23
The week kicks off on a mixed note as US President Joe Biden called Putin a ‘butcher’ and said in a speech in Warsaw that ‘for God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power’. Then, the news that Shanghai is going to a phased lockdown didn’t help lifting the mood in Asia. Oil, which rallied last Friday on news of a drone attack on a Saudi storage facility, slumped again this morning below $110pb. OPEC+ will announce its latest decision this week. In the FX, the US dollar begins the week on strong footage, as the dollar index advances above the 99 mark on geopolitical tensions and the Fed hawks, but the flattening and the inversion of the yield curve bring about the worries of a recession in the US. The EURUSD slips below the 1.10 mark on the back of a stronger US dollar. Besides the OPEC decision, investors will watch inflation data from the US and Eurozone, US jobs report, EV deliveries and US House vote on cannabis. Pot stocks are on fire, as Bitcoin and Ethereum rallies over the weekend. Could the optimism last? Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:21 Market update 0:55 Oil slumps on Shanghai lockdown: opportunity in price pullbacks? 4:32 Bitcoin, Ethereum rally 5:22 Pot stocks on fire before US House vote 6:39 Week Ahead: US jobs, inflation 7:48 US dollar up, as more portions of the curve invert Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
EUR/USD - EUR Has Strengthened Significantly, US OIL Has Plunged, What About CAD?

EUR/USD - EUR Has Strengthened Significantly, US OIL Has Plunged, What About CAD?

Jing Ren Jing Ren 31.03.2022 07:41
EURUSD attempts reversal The US dollar weakened after the Q4 GDP failed to impress. The euro gained momentum after it broke above 1.1130 which sits next to the 30-day moving average. 1.1230 at the origin of the March sell-off is a major resistance where medium-term sellers might be waiting to double down. Further pressure could be expected if intraday buyers take profit as the RSI shows a double top in the overbought area. 1.1070 is a fresh support. 1.0980 at the base of the current breakout is an important level to safeguard the rebound. USDCAD breaks daily support The Canadian dollar inched higher on expectations of aggressive tightening by the Bank of Canada. The US counterpart has given up all its gains from earlier this year. In turn, this indicates a lack of commitment from the buy-side. A tentative rally above 1.2590 has failed to secure follow-ups, further undermining the US dollar. 1.2400 is the next target after a drop below 1.2450 and a deeper correction would send the price to October’s lows around 1.2300. A rebound could be capped by fresh resistance at 1.2520. USOIL bounces off psychological level WTI crude rallies as the EIA shows a larger-than-expected fall in inventories. The price saw solid support in the demand area between the psychological level of 100.00 and the 30-day moving average (103.00). A bullish RSI divergence in this congestion zone suggests a loss of momentum in the retracement. A follow-up close above 107.00 would prompt sellers to cover, easing short-term pressure in the process. 114.00 is the next resistance and a breakout could lift offers to 129.00. 94.00 is a critical support to keep the rally intact.
DAX (GER 40), FTSE (UK100) And Forex Pairs: AUDJPY, EURJPY Analysis [VIDEO]

DAX (GER 40), FTSE (UK100) And Forex Pairs: AUDJPY, EURJPY Analysis [VIDEO]

Jason Sen Jason Sen 01.04.2022 09:54
AUDJPY lower as expected to test strong Fibonacci support at 9100/9080. Longs need stops below 9060. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 9000/8990 then support at 9010/8990. Our longs at 9100/9080 target 9145 & resistance at 9190/9200 for profit taking. Further gains are less likely but should target 9260/65 & perhaps as far as 9300/9320. If we unexpectedly continue higher however look for 9350/55 before a retest of what should be strong resistance at 9400/16. A break above 9430 is a buy signal. Dax finally tests support at 14350/300 for some profit taking on our shorts with low for the day exactly as predicted - longs could still be risky - if you try, stop below 14200. A break lower is the next sell signal targeting 13950/850. Minor resistance at 14540/580 but above 15610 can target strong resistance at 14750/850. Shorts need stops above 14950. FTSE outlook is more negative now. We could target first support at 7435/25 but longs here are probably risky. Best support at 7365/45. Longs need stops below 7325. Resistance at yesterday's high of 7530/50. Shorts need stops above 7570. A break higher (& weekly close above for confirmation) is a buy signal in to next week. EURJPY holding between first resistance at 135.60/50 & first support at 134.50/30, with a low for the day yesterday as predicted. Maybe we can trade this range before the NFP number today. Longs need stops below 134.10. A break lower targets 133.50/40. Shorts at 135.60/50 stop above 136.80. A break higher targets 136.25/35. Further gains today can allow a retest of this week's high at 137.40/52. A break higher can target 137.90/99.
Currency Speculators continue Japanese Yen bearishness, push bearish bets to 20-week high

Currency Speculators continue Japanese Yen bearishness, push bearish bets to 20-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 19:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the increase of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Japanese yen speculators raised their bearish bets for a third straight week this week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Over this five-week time-frame, yen bets have now dropped by a total of -38,944 contracts, going from -63,187 net positions on February 22nd to -102,131 net positions this week. This weakness in speculator sentiment has pushed the current Yen positioning to the most bearish level in the past twenty weeks, dating back to November 9th when net positions over over -105,000 contracts. Since the new year, yen speculator positions have averaged -70,432 weekly contracts, underscoring the sentiment weakness and compared to the 2021 weekly positions average of -44,182 contracts (positions averaged +17,100 weekly contracts in 2020). Japanese yen prices have also been extremely weak versus the other major currencies. Currently, the yen has recorded losses against all of the majors year-to-date and many majors currencies are trading at the highest levels since 2015 versus the yen. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,306 contracts), Australian dollar (1,583 contracts), Brazil real (1,052 contracts), Canadian dollar (3,405 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,804 contracts). The currencies with declining bets this week were the Japanese yen (-23,649 contracts), Euro (-2,469 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,155 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,826 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-3,387 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-271 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 53,967 76 30,941 79 -35,106 16 4,165 62 EUR 662,415 67 21,374 42 -47,348 62 25,974 17 GBP 224,365 54 -40,070 45 52,009 60 -11,939 31 JPY 239,698 82 -102,131 3 124,850 98 -22,719 7 CHF 44,327 20 -11,579 50 23,228 57 -11,649 29 CAD 147,421 28 -1,535 46 -15,518 48 17,053 64 AUD 143,007 39 -49,606 39 40,894 49 8,712 74 NZD 34,881 15 -867 70 -3 30 870 62 MXN 157,779 30 -8,247 24 3,286 74 4,961 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 78,894 79 42,616 92 -45,623 7 3,007 100 Bitcoin 12,024 66 -271 89 -411 0 682 28   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,635 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.3 2.8 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.0 67.8 2.8 – Net Position: 30,941 -35,106 4,165 – Gross Longs: 44,970 1,493 5,684 – Gross Shorts: 14,029 36,599 1,519 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.2 16.3 62.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 10.7 -21.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,374 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,843 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 55.0 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.0 62.1 8.2 – Net Position: 21,374 -47,348 25,974 – Gross Longs: 200,043 364,163 80,321 – Gross Shorts: 178,669 411,511 54,347 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.6 62.3 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 10.7 -19.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.6 73.3 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 50.1 15.2 – Net Position: -40,070 52,009 -11,939 – Gross Longs: 30,624 164,519 22,187 – Gross Shorts: 70,694 112,510 34,126 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 60.4 30.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.5 29.1 -14.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -102,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -23,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,482 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 83.9 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.0 31.8 18.0 – Net Position: -102,131 124,850 -22,719 – Gross Longs: 15,274 201,190 20,392 – Gross Shorts: 117,405 76,340 43,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.5 98.2 7.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.7 19.1 -5.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.4 73.2 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.5 20.8 45.5 – Net Position: -11,579 23,228 -11,649 – Gross Longs: 3,292 32,430 8,522 – Gross Shorts: 14,871 9,202 20,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.7 57.0 29.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 4.9 -7.3   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,940 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 52.1 24.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.0 62.6 13.4 – Net Position: -1,535 -15,518 17,053 – Gross Longs: 32,429 76,738 36,771 – Gross Shorts: 33,964 92,256 19,718 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 48.3 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.3 -0.3 28.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -49,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,189 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 56.6 18.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.4 28.0 12.7 – Net Position: -49,606 40,894 8,712 – Gross Longs: 33,960 80,885 26,806 – Gross Shorts: 83,566 39,991 18,094 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.8 49.4 73.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.4 -42.4 48.0   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,520 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.4 44.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.9 44.5 8.0 – Net Position: -867 -3 870 – Gross Longs: 15,504 15,507 3,666 – Gross Shorts: 16,371 15,510 2,796 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 30.4 61.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.2 -18.5 40.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,051 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.9 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.8 44.8 1.7 – Net Position: -8,247 3,286 4,961 – Gross Longs: 75,081 73,952 7,577 – Gross Shorts: 83,328 70,666 2,616 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.8 74.2 64.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 6.4 8.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 42,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,564 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.3 26.2 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.2 84.0 2.3 – Net Position: 42,616 -45,623 3,007 – Gross Longs: 53,065 20,649 4,805 – Gross Shorts: 10,449 66,272 1,798 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.3 6.8 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.5 -18.9 6.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 0 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.9 3.2 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 83.1 6.6 5.2 – Net Position: -271 -411 682 – Gross Longs: 9,722 383 1,302 – Gross Shorts: 9,993 794 620 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.5 8.5 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 -15.9 5.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.04.2022 20:09
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further retreat of bearish bets in the Australian currency futures contracts. Australian dollar speculators reduced their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over this seven-week time-frame, Aussie bets have improved by a total of +49,181 contracts, going from -86,694 net positions on February 15th to -37,513 net positions this week. This improvement in speculator sentiment has brought the current net position (-37,513 contracts) to the least bearish level of the past thirty-seven weeks, dating back to July 20th when the net position totaled -35,690 contracts. The speculator level for the Aussie has not registered a bullish or positive net weekly position since May 18th of 2021, a span of forty-seven weeks. Despite the bearish level of speculators, the AUD has been one of the stronger currencies over the past month and has been helped along by the outlook that the Reserve Bank of Australia will start to raise interest rates for the first time since 2010. The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (911 contracts), Australian dollar (12,093 contracts), Mexican peso (9,157 contracts), Euro (5,996 contracts), Brazil real (2,910 contracts), Canadian dollar (8,458 contracts) and Bitcoin (27 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-1,698 contracts), Swiss franc (-814 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,688 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-702 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-263 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-05-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 49,049 65 31,852 81 -35,194 16 3,342 53 EUR 663,589 67 27,370 43 -49,617 62 22,247 11 GBP 238,266 63 -41,758 44 57,779 64 -16,021 22 JPY 242,217 83 -103,829 2 125,224 98 -21,395 10 CHF 40,005 14 -12,393 48 20,743 54 -8,350 39 CAD 157,562 35 6,923 54 -30,414 38 23,491 77 AUD 148,898 44 -37,513 50 22,332 36 15,181 89 NZD 35,788 16 -1,569 69 171 31 1,398 68 MXN 172,712 36 910 28 -5,778 70 4,868 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 65,870 61 45,526 95 -47,961 4 2,435 93 Bitcoin 11,374 61 -244 89 -397 0 641 28   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,941 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.7 2.9 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.7 74.6 3.9 – Net Position: 31,852 -35,194 3,342 – Gross Longs: 41,038 1,417 5,243 – Gross Shorts: 9,186 36,611 1,901 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.7 16.1 53.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 10.3 -21.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,374 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.8 53.8 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 61.3 8.4 – Net Position: 27,370 -49,617 22,247 – Gross Longs: 210,914 357,140 77,946 – Gross Shorts: 183,544 406,757 55,699 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.4 61.7 11.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 13.7 -27.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -41,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,070 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.1 73.6 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 49.4 15.1 – Net Position: -41,758 57,779 -16,021 – Gross Longs: 35,873 175,429 19,923 – Gross Shorts: 77,631 117,650 35,944 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.9 63.9 22.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 28.2 -24.4   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -103,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,131 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 84.7 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 33.0 16.8 – Net Position: -103,829 125,224 -21,395 – Gross Longs: 14,583 205,209 19,190 – Gross Shorts: 118,412 79,985 40,585 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 98.4 10.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.7 21.2 -4.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,579 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 73.5 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.6 21.6 42.6 – Net Position: -12,393 20,743 -8,350 – Gross Longs: 1,860 29,392 8,694 – Gross Shorts: 14,253 8,649 17,044 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 54.2 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 1.8 -0.7   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,535 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 49.4 26.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.3 68.7 11.1 – Net Position: 6,923 -30,414 23,491 – Gross Longs: 37,325 77,906 40,906 – Gross Shorts: 30,402 108,320 17,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.4 37.6 76.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.3 -11.7 37.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,606 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 53.9 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.6 38.9 11.5 – Net Position: -37,513 22,332 15,181 – Gross Longs: 34,871 80,207 32,313 – Gross Shorts: 72,384 57,875 17,132 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 35.5 89.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 43.2 -55.1 66.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.1 44.3 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.5 43.8 8.1 – Net Position: -1,569 171 1,398 – Gross Longs: 15,428 15,863 4,311 – Gross Shorts: 16,997 15,692 2,913 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 30.7 67.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.7 -21.2 43.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,247 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.6 49.6 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.1 53.0 1.6 – Net Position: 910 -5,778 4,868 – Gross Longs: 78,728 85,690 7,698 – Gross Shorts: 77,818 91,468 2,830 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 70.4 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 6.4 2.8   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.7 16.4 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6 89.2 2.9 – Net Position: 45,526 -47,961 2,435 – Gross Longs: 50,518 10,795 4,319 – Gross Shorts: 4,992 58,756 1,884 – Long to Short Ratio: 10.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.1 4.5 93.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.7 -20.4 -2.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -271 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.5 3.8 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.6 7.3 6.0 – Net Position: -244 -397 641 – Gross Longs: 8,811 437 1,322 – Gross Shorts: 9,055 834 681 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.1 9.6 27.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 -11.3 2.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
USDJPY - The Chart Shows A Strong Greenback, EURCAD And DAX Calmer Than Before

USDJPY - The Chart Shows A Strong Greenback, EURCAD And DAX Calmer Than Before

Jing Ren Jing Ren 11.04.2022 08:31
USDJPY consolidates gains The US dollar rallies as the 10-year Treasury yield hits a three-year high. Price action has been treading water after it bounced off 121.30. The RSI shot back into the overbought area and could limit the upward momentum. Sentiment remains bullish but subdued volatility suggests a lack of volume. The recent peak at 125.00 is a major hurdle and its breach could resume the rally. On the downside, a break below 122.70 could lead to an extended consolidation. 121.30 is a critical floor to keep the short-term rally intact. EURCAD struggles to rebound The Canadian dollar strengthened after a drop in the jobless rate in March. The RSI’s double-dip in the oversold area has attracted some buying interest. A break above the demand-turned-supply zone around 1.3700 has improved the short-term mood. The origin of the previous sell-off at 1.3840 is a major resistance, as it sits on the 20-day moving average, making it a congestion area. A bullish close could pave the way for a meaningful rebound. Failing that, a retreat back below 1.3600 may resume the downtrend. GER 40 seeks support The Dax 40 struggles on concerns about the economic costs of war in Ukraine. A bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests steadied sentiment in the medium-term after a V-shaped rebound. The bulls may see the pullback as an opportunity to accumulate. They will need to clear February’s sell-off point at 15500 before the uptrend could resume. On the intraday level, a drop below 14200 prompted buyers to exit, making 14430 a fresh resistance. A break below 14050 may cause a deeper correction towards 13600.
Intraday Market Analysis – CHF Bounces Back

Intraday Market Analysis – CHF Bounces Back

Jing Ren Jing Ren 12.04.2022 07:57
USDCHF hits resistance The Swiss franc rallies across the board as traders dump risk assets for safe haven ones amid uncertainty. The latest rebound came to a halt at 0.9370 from the late March sell-off. The RSI’s double top in the overbought zone prompted intraday buyers to take profit, weakening the upward momentum. A bullish close would lift offers to the recent peak at 0.9460, where strong selling pressure could be expected. A breakout may extend the rally to 0.9600. Otherwise, 0.9240 is the closest support to test the bulls’ resolve. EURGBP attempts rebound The sterling softened after Britain’s GDP fell short of expectations in February. The euro found support in the demand zone between 0.8300 and 0.8310, an important level from the daily chart. The ensuing break above 0.8360 flushed out some selling interests and could pave the way for a sustained bounce. 0.8400 is the next hurdle and its breach may propel the single currency to the previous high (0.8510). An overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback and the bulls may see it as an opportunity to join in. US 30 struggles for support The Dow Jones 30 turns south as US Treasury yields continue to climb. The index briefly found support over the 30-day moving average (34200). A bullish RSI divergence indicates a deceleration in the current sell-off. Nonetheless, the bulls’ struggle to push past 35000 suggests that short-term sentiment remains cautious. On the downside, a fall below 34200 could trigger a broader liquidation, causing an extended consolidation in the days to come. 33500 at the origin of the previous breakout would be the next support.
Forex News: AUDUSD, are sellers setting up a new extension lower?

Forex News: AUDUSD, are sellers setting up a new extension lower?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 13.04.2022 10:56
Today we are looking at the AUDUSD as sellers look to be pushing at a new extension lower. After yesterday’s rally stalled at resistance so far today, we have seen momentum squarely back with sellers. Overall price remains in a long term uptrend, but since the last April high was put in, buyers have struggled to get momentum going with a charging USD continuing to pressure the AUD. Despite Australian inflation pressure and talk of rates increasing in June, this is overshadowed by 40-year high inflation in the States and Fed members vowing to act. Since that high, we have watched a new downtrend develop with price making its first leg lower, returning to 0.74. Yesterday we did see a fightback, but that was stopped by resistance and supply that remains around the .7450-.7480 area. Today’s rally was also stopped by this supply level and has started to develop into a trigger bar. If sellers can break minor support, we will continue to look for a continuation lower, maintaining the current downtrend. The big test if price makes a new push lower is the long-term uptrend. Will it stop sellers and start a new continuation point for buyers? This could be a critical crossroads for the longer-term picture, and we feel a lot will come down to the current situation with US inflation, their rates policy and demand for commodities. Covid continues to run rife in China, and if the situation continues, this could also have a knock-on effect on demand. First things first, sellers need to beat minor support to get the continuation going. AUDUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: AUDUSD, are sellers setting up a new extension lower? appeared first on Eightcap.
COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.04.2022 22:07
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further rise of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Yen speculators pushed their bearish bets higher for a fifth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over the past five weeks, yen bets have fallen by a total of -55,971 contracts, going from a total of -55,856 net positions on March 8th to a total of -111,827 net positions this week. Speculator positions have now slid all the way to the lowest standing of the past one hundred and eight-three weeks, dating back to October 9th of 2019. This recent weakness in yen positions and the yen price has taken place while open interest has been increasing which shows an accelerating downtrend as prices have been falling as more traders have been entering the market on the bearish side. The speculator strength index is also showing that the Japanese yen positions are at a bearish extreme position with the strength index at a zero percent level (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The fundamental backdrop has been the major driver of yen weakness. The Bank of Japan has continued on with its stimulus program and has not indicated any plans to move interest rates off their near-zero level while other central banks around the world have put the breaks on their stimulus actions and have started hiking their interest rates to try to tame inflationary pressures. The yen this week hit the lowest level in twenty years against the US dollar as the USDJPY currency pair trades above the 126.00 level. The other major currencies have all hit multi-year highs versus the yen as well. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (11,690 contracts), Brazil real (603 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,280 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,235 contracts), Bitcoin (411 contracts), Australian dollar (8,798 contracts) and the Mexican peso (14,050 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,215 contracts), Japanese yen (-7,998 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,549 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-11,296 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,836 78 29,637 77 -36,045 15 6,408 87 EUR 678,607 73 39,060 47 -60,750 59 21,690 10 GBP 246,152 68 -53,054 36 70,949 72 -17,895 19 JPY 245,403 86 -111,827 0 131,902 100 -20,075 13 CHF 41,231 16 -13,942 46 22,299 56 -8,357 39 CAD 155,390 34 12,158 59 -33,450 35 21,292 72 AUD 150,939 45 -28,715 58 17,876 32 10,839 79 NZD 37,585 20 -289 71 -429 30 718 60 MXN 175,905 38 14,960 34 -19,553 65 4,593 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 67,772 64 46,129 96 -48,954 4 2,825 98 Bitcoin 10,632 56 167 98 -439 0 272 19   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,852 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 2.2 15.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.7 68.0 3.6 – Net Position: 29,637 -36,045 6,408 – Gross Longs: 44,303 1,226 8,402 – Gross Shorts: 14,666 37,271 1,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 14.7 86.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 5.6 19.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,370 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.0 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 62.0 8.5 – Net Position: 39,060 -60,750 21,690 – Gross Longs: 221,645 359,853 79,165 – Gross Shorts: 182,585 420,603 57,475 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 58.6 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 9.7 -14.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,758 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.4 75.7 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.0 46.9 15.3 – Net Position: -53,054 70,949 -17,895 – Gross Longs: 35,514 186,343 19,803 – Gross Shorts: 88,568 115,394 37,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.8 71.6 18.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.0 33.6 -8.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -111,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 86.7 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 33.0 16.3 – Net Position: -111,827 131,902 -20,075 – Gross Longs: 9,925 212,850 20,022 – Gross Shorts: 121,752 80,948 40,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 12.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.5 25.5 -18.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,942 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,393 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 74.7 21.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.8 20.6 41.5 – Net Position: -13,942 22,299 -8,357 – Gross Longs: 1,642 30,798 8,742 – Gross Shorts: 15,584 8,499 17,099 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.6 55.9 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 1.6 -8.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,923 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.3 49.5 25.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 71.0 11.3 – Net Position: 12,158 -33,450 21,292 – Gross Longs: 37,724 76,922 38,796 – Gross Shorts: 25,566 110,372 17,504 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.8 35.4 72.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 -8.6 27.6   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.3 53.9 19.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.4 42.1 12.1 – Net Position: -28,715 17,876 10,839 – Gross Longs: 39,770 81,396 29,106 – Gross Shorts: 68,485 63,520 18,267 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.2 32.2 78.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 46.0 -52.2 49.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,569 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.4 45.9 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 47.0 8.1 – Net Position: -289 -429 718 – Gross Longs: 16,295 17,233 3,773 – Gross Shorts: 16,584 17,662 3,055 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.8 29.7 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.3 -25.5 30.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 910 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 48.8 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.9 59.9 1.7 – Net Position: 14,960 -19,553 4,593 – Gross Longs: 81,582 85,784 7,517 – Gross Shorts: 66,622 105,337 2,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 64.6 62.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.7 10.9 4.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,526 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.6 15.6 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 87.9 2.5 – Net Position: 46,129 -48,954 2,825 – Gross Longs: 52,624 10,591 4,496 – Gross Shorts: 6,495 59,545 1,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.7 3.5 97.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.2 3.3 10.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 3.6 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.6 7.7 7.4 – Net Position: 167 -439 272 – Gross Longs: 8,207 382 1,058 – Gross Shorts: 8,040 821 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.9 6.3 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 6.3 -3.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Trade Zone Easter Week Ahead

Trade Zone Easter Week Ahead

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 18.04.2022 08:50
Watch Simon Massey’s from Trade Room Plus analysis and his trade possibilities for the upcoming Easter week. Today, he look at the price action for German DAX index, Bitcoin, US NASDAQ, Gold and a 2 major forex pairs of note. Enjoy the video below to get all of Simon’s latest thoughts. Do trade safe! JOIN SIMON THIS WEDNESDAY FOR THIS WEEK’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE. REGISTER NOW. Join us at 7 PM AEST (10 AM BST) this coming Wednesday as Simon for another Trade Zone Live Market Update. Register now to secure your place on our next live market update of April, as Simon examines the key moves of the week so far, and looks ahead at the potential end of week action that you need to keep an eye on. It’s the perfect session to summarise the levels you need to be watching as the trading week draws to a close. Got a burning trading question you need to answer? Want to know about the fortunes of a specific pair or commodity, then let Simon give his view at the end of session Q&A. Registration is free. Click below to secure your seat. Simon Massey is the lead trader of Trade Room Plus, the UK’s premier Live Trade Room. He believes the best way to teach people to trade is to demonstrate live trades. His trading journey started with a small trading account. This led him to trade with ever-larger trading accounts until he was able to leave his previous job and become a full-time trader. Trade Room Plus was established in 2013 and provides educational services to help develop effective trading strategies. Beginners can watch the pros trade financial assets in real-time and learn first-hand from the experts. Important Data Releases & Events this Week Monday CNY Inflation Rate GBP GDP Tuesday AUD NAB Business Confidence GBP Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate EUR German Inflation Rate, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index USD Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate Wednesday AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index GBP Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate USD PPI Thursday CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Report AUD Employment Change, Unemployment Rate EUR Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference USD Retail Sales Friday USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Indes The post Trade Zone Easter Week Ahead appeared first on Eightcap.
The sectors most affected by soaring energy prices | ING Economics

Euro To US Dollar (EUR To USD): That's An Amazing USD Performance, Will USDCAD (Canadian Dollar) Stay Close? USDJPY (Japanese Yen) Beats Records!

Jason Sen Jason Sen 20.04.2022 10:39
EURUSD retests 37 YEAR TREND LINE SUPPORT AT 1.0760/20. Longs need stops below 1.0670. Obviously there is nothing more important than this level this week. Longs at 1.0760/20 initially target 1.0820/50. Above here is more positive targeting 1.0900/20 then 1.0960/70. USDCAD strong resistance at 1.2650/70. Shorts need stops above 1.2690. A break higher is a medium term buy signal. Related article: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM Very minor support at 1.2610/1.2590 & again at 1.2525/05 today. If we continue lower look for 1.2480/70. We have another buying opportunity at 1.2440/10. Longs need stops below 1.2370. A break lower is an important medium term sell signal. USDJPY beat 14 year trend line resistance at 127.10/50 & rocketed another 200 pips!! The pair has 13 blue bodied daily & 7 weekly candles in a row. So sell signal yet despite severely overbought conditions. Above 129.50 look for 129.90/95 then 130.25/35, perhaps as far as 130.75/85. First support at 128.45/25. Further losses can target 127.80/70. Unlikely but if we continue lower look for strong support at 127.10/126.90. Read next: Gold Price Falls, Volatility in Wheat Futures and The Price Of Palladium| FXMAG.COM EURJPY higher as expected reaching 139.67 & no sell signal yet as we become overbought. Further gains can target 139.95/99 then 140.40/50 & 140.85/95. GBP To USD GBPUSD retests last week's low at 1.2990/70 after the bullish engulfing candle so now we just have to see if we get a double bottom buy signal or if the pair break lower for a sell signal. So far the bulls are winning as we bounce from 1.2977. A break below 1.2955 should be a medium term sell signal. Our longs target 1.3060/70 & 1.3100/10, perhaps as far as first resistance at 1.3150/70. Please email me if you need this report updated or Whatsapp: +66971910019 – To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk
Markets find balance ahead of fresh economic data and speeches from Lagarde and Powell (expect a local increase in EUR/USD and a decease in USD/CAD)  | InstaForex

Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.04.2022 10:17
Summary: EUR/USD and Monetary Policy. Bank Of England's Speech on Thursday effect on the GBP related currency pairs. AUD/CHF as a reflection of investor risk sentiment. Related article: Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events Monetary Policy driving the EUR/USD price action. Since the market opened this morning, the EUR has strengthened against the USD and the market sentiment is bullish, the rise in price is small but significant given the current economic conditions. With the differing monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) the EUR/USD currency pair price is low. In the coming weeks it is likely to see the dollar strengthening thanks to the expectations of the Fed to tighten monetary policy. Whereas, there is no certainty on when the ECB will begin rising interest rates. EUR/USD Price Chart Value of the GBP Awaits BOEs Speech Since the market opened this morning the price of the currency pair has increased, however, market sentiment for the EUR/GBP has changed from bullish yesterday to a mixed today. The strengthening EUR against GBP comes in light of the Bank of Englands (BOE) announcements tomorrow regarding the future monetary policy of the country, investors are expecting more hawkish actions. EUR/GBP Price Chart  Read next: Altcoins' Rally: Solana (SOL) Soars Even More, DOT and SHIBA INU Do The Same! | FXMAG.COM AUD/CHF Since the market opened this morning, the value of the AUD/CHF has increased, and has a bullish market sentiment. This currency pair can be used as a good reflection of risk sentiment, this is because the AUD is risk-on and the Swiss Franc is considered as a safe-haven currency. AUD/CHF Price Chart GBP loses some ground on the JPY The price of the GBP/JPY currency pair has (in general) been on the rise as a result of the rapidly depreciating value of the Yen. However, since the market opened this morning the price has decreased despite the bullish market sentiment, possibly due to the uncertainty regarding the future of the GBP and the upcoming BOE’s announcements. GBP/JPY Price Chart Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, teletrade.eu, dailyfx.com
Powell to hit bullish sentiment at semiannual testimony | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Powerful (USD), Really Strong (CAD) - US Dollar To Canadian Dollar, Solid NZD Performance, UKOIL To Stabilize?

Jing Ren Jing Ren 21.04.2022 07:40
Key takeaways: The Canadian dollar soared after red hot inflation readings in March The New Zealand dollar inched lower after the Q1 CPI fell short of expectations Brent crude finds support from a surprise drawdown in inventories USDCAD breaks support The Canadian dollar soared after red hot inflation readings in March. The greenback’s struggle to reclaim 1.2670 suggests a lack of momentum from the buy-side. A fall below 1.2540 triggered a new round of liquidation and further confirmed the bearish RSI divergence. 1.2480 is the next support and an oversold RSI may attract some bargain hunters. However, there is an expectation of stiff selling pressure around 1.2645 as the mood sours. A deeper correction could send the price below the critical floor at 1.2400. Related article: Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events NZDUSD tests resistance The New Zealand dollar inched lower after the Q1 CPI fell short of expectations. A break below the daily support of 0.6730 revealed a lack of buying interest so far. Sentiment turned cautious after the daily chart exhibited a bearish MA cross. On the hourly chart, the RSI’s oversold situation led to some profit-taking off 0.6720. A bullish divergence suggests a slowdown in the current sell-off. Nonetheless, the bulls need to lift offers in the supply zone between 0.6820 and 0.6880 before a reversal could happen. Related article: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM UKOIL bounces off support Brent crude finds support from a surprise drawdown in inventories. On the daily chart, the price is taking a breather in a flag-shaped pattern after a parabolic ascent. The uptrend can remain intact as long as the support of 98.00 stays still. A tentative break above 114.50 has prompted short-term sellers to cover. The latest pullback saw bids at the 61.8% (104.20) Fibonacci retracement level while the RSI recovers to the neutrality area. A break above 117.80 could extend the rally towards 127.00.
Want To Exchange 100 GBP To USD? GBP/USD Below 1.3000! (GBP) British Pound Weakens! GBP To USD - 17-Months-Low!

Want To Exchange 100 GBP To USD? GBP/USD Below 1.3000! (GBP) British Pound Weakens! GBP To USD - 17-Months-Low!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.04.2022 09:34
GBPUSD fell below 1.3000 to its lowest level in 17 months due to a weak retail sales report. Sales excluding fuel fell 1.1% after 0.9% in February ONS reports a 1.4% drop in total sales for March after a 0.5% decline a month earlier. Sales excluding fuel fell 1.1% after 0.9% in February and showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% - a clear signal of the severity of the current economic situation. Read next: ECB Announcements to Possibly Tighten Monetary Policy Strengthens the Euro. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD and EUR/CHF All Increased | FXMAG.COM Consumer demand is migrating from retail to services Rising prices and wages have little impact on retail activity so far, which may prove to be a complication for the Bank of England in further tightening monetary policy. Sales returned to their long-term trend level in March after a significant pullback in the second half of 2020. Consumer demand is migrating from retail to services. Related article: Altcoins: IOTA, Litecoin (LTC) and Cardano (ADA) Threatened? Crypto Markets Lie in The Hands of Regulations and Government Policies? | FXMAG.COM According to the Fibonacci model, the next major stop could be near the 1.26 area Weak sales data interrupted the Pound's consolidation above the 1.3000 area, hoping that the UK economy could digest decisive rate tightening. GBPUSD is renewing multi-month lows, building on the momentum formed a month ago when a rebound in the pair was interrupted. According to the Fibonacci model, the next major stop could be near the 1.26 area, where the 161.8% mark from the initial decline from February to March passes. Read next: (XAGUSD) Price of Silver Vs. U.S Yields, Lumber and Corn Futures Dependent on Demand and Supply | FXMAG.COM  
The sectors most affected by soaring energy prices | ING Economics

(USD) Dollar Index - Fed Floors It! Hawkish Rhetoric And Interest Rate Hike? British Pound In Crisis? GBP/USD Affected By Weak Retail Sales Data!

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 22.04.2022 12:02
The Dollar Index appears to have risen on Friday to its highest level since July 2020 as expectations rise for a rapid tightening of monetary policy in the US both this spring and summer. Learn more on Conotoxia.com Speaking Thursday at a panel organized by the IMF, the Fed chairman said the central bank is committed to raising interest rates quickly to bring inflation down Investors may have heard hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday, who suggested more aggressive rate hikes in the future. Speaking Thursday at a panel organized by the IMF, the Fed chairman said the central bank is committed to raising interest rates quickly to bring inflation down, and added that a 50 basis point rate hike is still on the table for May. Powell pointed out that aside from damaging inflation, the U.S. economy is very strong and the labor market is in good shape. The dollar index seems to have gained for the third week in a row. Powell's speech was followed by opinions from various institutions on how further monetary policy in the US may shape up. Among them, Nomura points to the possibility of hikes of as much as 75 basis points both in June and July. This seems to be one of the bigger predictions for Fed action. Read Next: How To Hedge Against Inflation? Crypto? Is Bitcoin (BTC) The Answer?| FXMAG.COM UK consumer morale was the weakest since 2008 In addition to the strength of the US dollar, today on the currency market we may also observe the relative weakness of the British pound. Macroeconomic data from the UK may have contributed to the GBP depreciation. Retail sales in the UK fell by 1.4 percent in March 2022, which seems to be much worse than market forecasts of a 0.3 percent decline. The data suggests that consumers may be spending less due to rising prices. Additionally, UK consumer morale was the weakest since 2008. The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK fell to -38 points in April 2022, the lowest level since July 2008. As a consequence of the above events, the GBP/USD pair price could fall by almost 1% today, to the lowest level since the end of 2020. Yesterday the pair was quoted at the area of 1.3030, and fall today to the region of 1.2900. The market can still wait for the speeches of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey later today. Read Next: Record-Breaking US Dollar To Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): Turbo-accelerated Dollar Index (DXY) Makes Not So Strony JPY Plunge Against The Greenback | FXMAG.COM Since the beginning of the year, the yen seems to have lost about 10 percent against the US dollar Among the world's major currencies, it is also impossible not to pay attention to the recent weakness of the Japanese yen, which is trying to stabilize under the level of 130.00 on the USD/JPY pair. The talks between the Japanese and American sides on taking joint steps to slow down such rapid changes in the exchange rate could help in this process. A meeting was to be held between the Japanese Finance Minister and the US Treasury Secretary on this matter. Since the beginning of the year, the yen seems to have lost about 10 percent against the US dollar. Read Next: Fed Vs. ECB! Market Shocker Is Here! EUR/USD Plunged! (EUR) Shows Its Strength Amid ECB Rhetoric| FXMAG.COM Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
An unusual drawdown is the perfect ending to an unusual bull market

Dynamic Australian Dollar Against US Dollar (AUD/USD), (CAD) Canadian Dollar's Amid Crude Oil Price, BoE's To Empower British Pound (GBP)? What Are The Trends Of Forex Pairs?

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 22.04.2022 14:11
Forex 2022-04-22 13:00 5 minutes to read Summary:  An ugly and broad deterioration in risk sentiment yesterday, in part on fresh hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, has the US dollar and Japanese yen rallying hard against all other currencies, with EM and commodity currencies seeing the most weakness. This morning, the bottom has dropped out of GBPUSD on greenback strength, but also a sudden jolt of GBP weakness after a sharp contraction in UK Retail Sales in March. FX Trading focus: The twin USD and JPY wrecking balls swinging, GBP thrashed after data, commodity FX also taking it on the chin Well, the euro focus on a more hawkish ECB and a likely solid showing for Macron in the French presidential election run-off this weekend is more than a bit out the window today on the sudden intrusion of an ugly deterioration in risk sentiment yesterday. It started right around the opening bell in the US equity session and continued all day long, aggravated by fresh hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell that boosted the 2-year treasury yield over 15 basis points. Powell indicated he is in favour of a 50-basis point move in May (already priced, in fact the market has priced marginally higher levels for that meeting, possibly as some believe that the Fed could take the yield straight to 1.00% (maybe, please, please, ditching the 0.25% range of the target yield?). He also said that it is appropriate for the Fed to move a little more quickly and that the US labor market is “unsustainably hot”. This supported the US dollar more broadly than some of the previous surges in US yields on more hawkish Fed rhetoric as risk sentiment took a dive and there is a very different energy suddenly in many commodity linked assets, as markets perhaps begin to fear more for forward demand and recession. More on that in the AUDUSD chart discussion below. The JPY has actually managed to maintain altitude against a very strong US dollar here as the US yield curve has flattened over the last couple of sessions, with longer yields unable to maintain the pace of rises at the front-end of the treasury yield curve. JPY may also be supported on the change of focus as commodity and other traditional pro-cyclical EM currencies have weakened sharply here as well.  A more profound and broader rally in the JPY, however, would likely require a equally powerful rally in long duration global safe haven bonds. Read next (Saxo Bank): Many To Hear About! Fed's Powell, Nasdaq 100, Grains, FX In Today's Saxo Market Call| FXMAG.COM The Riksbank is seen raising rates next Thursday as well The Powell comments yesterday should be the last we see from any Fed member as we enter the blackout period for Fed comments until the other side of the May 4 FOMC meeting. After yesterday’s jolt, we are firmly into a regime of risk sentiment swings dominating until volatility calms, with the starting point quite low for equities and middle-range for FX, although yesterday saw a dramatic acceleration in realized volatility across a broader spectrum of FX and beyond the JPY focus of late, with the CNH weakening move this week adding a significant extra twist. Next week’s US data highlights are the Thursday Q1 GDP estimate and the Friday Mar. PCE Inflation data, while elsewhere, the Bank of Japan meets on Thursday (any tinkering with the existing policy would elicit a massive reaction, particularly as none expected, though discomfort with recent JPY volatility is high). The Riksbank is seen raising rates next Thursday as well – a lot has been priced in there and EURSEK is back above its’ 200-day moving average after a break below on Wednesday due to the weak risk sentiment – but SEK still looks solid. Read next (Saxo Bank): Hawkish Fed Strikes Again! Dynamic US Stocks: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Volatile AUDUSD, Microsoft (MSFT) And (GOOG) Alphabet Earnings - QuickTake By Saxo Bank| FXMAG.COM Chart: AUDUSD It is difficult to limit the chart coverage to just one chart, but the sharp and profound reversal in commodity currency- and EM-strength deserves special attention as it has been the most jolting. This broad selling in the US equity market yesterday saw the commodity sector performing weaker than the broader averages and overnight, a pivotal equity for the Aussie outlook, BHP Billiton has likewise suffered a sharp markdown of more than four percent since the Thursday Asian session close and some 9% from its recent peak. The mounting concerns for the Chinese outlook now coupled with the sharpest one-week weakening in the yuan in years are perhaps adding some downside energy to the Antipodean currencies here as well. This morning’s action is already seeing the 200-day moving average in play just below 0.7300 as we are suddenly in danger of a capitulation that re-focuses attention on the massive 0.7000 level that survived its last attack back earlier this year and which still looks like an enormous head-and-shoulders neckline. Source: Saxo Group Sterling took a nasty dive this morning on a very weak March Retail Sales report (off -1.4% m/m for the headline and -1.1% ex Auto Fuel), which underlines the Bank of England’s fear of an impending slowdown on the unfolding cost-of-living crisis. Underlining the risk of cratering activity was the most recent GfK confidence survey, the one released last night for April, which registered the second lowest reading in its more than 40-year history, with only one month in the teeth of the GFC showing a lower level than April’s -38. The market has likely over-estimated the BoE’s potential to hike rates this year, with UK rates slavishly moving higher in sympathy with US rates yesterday. GBPUSD burst down through 1.3000 today and the next natural target is the psychological 1.2500 level, although the ultimate range support is 1.2000. EURGBP is worth watching after this weekend’s French poll as well and with the ECB needing to play some catch-up in the rate tightening game, at least in relative terms (i.e., whether because expectations are over-baked elsewhere or even if expectations continue to ratchet higher everywhere.) Read more: What A Plunge Of Japanese Yen (JPY)! US Dollar (USD) Is Really Strong! Will Bank Of Japan (BoJ) Raise The Interest Rate? USDJPY And More In Eyes Of Saxo Bank| FXMAG.COM CAD binned after its sharp rally.  The market since yesterday proving once again that when risk sentiment deteriorates and crude oil prices head south, CAD will come under pressure, with the timing particularly jolting this week after the very high CPI print brought BoC tightening expectations sharply higher. If oil continues to correct and equity markets capitulate, the local key resistance above 1.2650 doesn’t look to have a chance of holding, with the 1.3000 level the next focus. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength. CAD has gone from top of the lot to a sudden dog in such quick fashion that it has yet to register on the FX Board, which measures trending behaviour – but expect a sharp deceleration in CAD in coming sessions. The CNH move is the most remarkable shift this week, together with the silver weakness as can be seen in the 5-day momentum change reading – a real change of pace. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs. Note the EURGBP crossover attempt today to the upside – this could have legs next week – as could EURNOK also flipping positive, provided oil prices continue to correct. USDCAD is doing its latest whiplash routine, but could hold the new uptrend here if it stays above 1.2600, while gold’s flat performance has been quite impressive but looks threatened on a close to new lows. Note the 12.8 (!) reading for USDCNH – the reason this is so extreme is that it is volatility adjusted and this is the most significant weekly move in USDCNH since at least 2019. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – Canada Feb. Retail Sales 1300 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1345 – US Apr. Flash Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI’s 1430 – UK Bank of England Governor Bailey to speak
Powell signals Fed needs to be nimble, Canada Inflation hits near 40-year high, bitcoin tries to hold USD20k

What Moves Forex Rates? Strong US Dollar Affects British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY) And CNH

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 22.04.2022 13:32
The world's major currencies continue to surrender to the dollar one after another. Since the start of March, the yen has lost 11.5% and fallen to a 20-year low. But just as we saw the third world economy currency stabilise, the currency of the second one went on the move. Chinese currency had previously successfully resisted the strengthening of the USD since the middle of last year, but The dollar has added over 2% to the renminbi since the start of the week, the most significant move since 2015. It is also noteworthy that the Chinese currency had previously successfully resisted the strengthening of the USD since the middle of last year, but in an abrupt move, entered the area of the extremes of the last 12 months. Read next (FxPro): Still Going Up The Price Of Crude Oil (WTI/BRENT) When Energy Stocks Will Start To Soar? | FXMAG.COM We see an equally impressive attack on the Pound. The GBPUSD broke the support at 1.3000 on Friday, and it is already losing more than 1% so far today. USDCHF reached its highest point since June 2020, exceeding 0.9550. Read next (FxPro): Want To Exchange 100 GBP To USD? GBP/USD Below 1.3000! (GBP) British Pound Weakens! GBP To USD - 17-Months-Low! | FXMAG.COM The New Zealand and Australian dollars have been declining steadily since early April, despite hawkish action and comments from respective central banks. Moreover, the export-oriented economies of these countries should benefit from the emerging commodity prices. EURUSD is trading below 1.0800, near 2020 reversal levels and maintaining a very moderate trading range The USDCAD went back to month highs in less than two days, reversing Wednesday's sharp rally and earlier gains from hawkish comments by the Bank of Canada. EURUSD is trading below 1.0800, near 2020 reversal levels and maintaining a very moderate trading range. However, the swing in GBPUSD today and USDCNH throughout the week and the USDJPY drama since early March suggests that EURUSD could be the next victim of dollar bulls.
U.S Yields Expecting Further Increases!?, Announcement Of PMIs Prelims For The Private Sector - FOREX Today

U.S Yields Expecting Further Increases!?, Announcement Of PMIs Prelims For The Private Sector - FOREX Today

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.04.2022 19:00
Summary: Market sentiment for the EUR/USD currency pair showing bearish signals. Bullish outlook for the EUR/GBP as the EUR strengthens against the GBP. UK retail sales saw a large decrease, causing investor confidence for the currency to fall. USD gains ground on the EUR in light of further expected increases in yields in May The Dollar has strengthened against the EUR since the market opened this morning, in general the dollar is strengthening against all currencies at the moment. After the prelims on private sector PMIs this morning, the EUR originally gained some ground against the USD but has since fallen again, possibly as a result of the new expected increases in U.S yields in May, causing more investor confidence in the USD. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR gains on the GBP as expectations arise for ECB to increase yields. Since the market opened this morning, market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish. The Euro has gained ground on the GBP inlight of the Private sectors PMIs announcements this morning as well as the expectations that the European Central Bank could increase yields in July. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP Weakens against the USD Since the market opened this morning, market sentiment for this currency pair is bearish. The GBP has weakened against the USD inlight of the announcement of the Feds intentions to increase the U.S yields by a further 50bps, at the same time, UK retail sales saw a large decrease. This fall counteracted the strengthening seen after the increased expectations of the BoE’s interest rates. GBP/USD Price Chart   Related article: https://www.fxmag.com/forex/ecb-announcements-to-possibly-tighten-monetary-policy-strengthens-the-euro-eur-usd-eur-gbp-aud-nzd-and-eur-chf-all-increased The Japanese Yen strengthened against the AUD today. Market sentiment for this currency pair is showing as mixed. In general the JPY has been weakening in the past days. This weakening had pushed the value of this currency pair higher, however, since the market opened this morning, the AUD has weakened against the JPY. AUD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 20:49
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising of bullish bets in the Canadian ‘Loonie’ dollar currency futures contracts. CAD speculators raised their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, CAD bets have improved by a total of +26,166 contracts, going from -4,940 net positions on March 22nd to +21,226 net positions this week. These gains have brought this week’s speculator level to the most bullish position since July 13th of 2021, a span of forty weeks. This recent improvement in Loonie sentiment has been helped out by the hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC recently pushed its key interest rate higher by 50 basis points on April 13th and has in the past few days hinted that more interest rate rises were to come. The recent inflation numbers out of Canada were above expectations (6.7 percent) and according to Bloomberg, market participants have pushed their odds to 100 percent for another 50 basis point hike in June. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (2,943 contracts), Japanese yen (4,640 contracts), Swiss franc (2,492 contracts), New Zealand dollar (654 contracts), Canadian dollar (9,068 contracts)and the Mexican peso (6,704 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Euro (-7,759 contracts), Brazil real (-1,557 contracts), Australian dollar (-122 contracts), Bitcoin (-361 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-5,860 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,524 77 32,580 82 -35,893 15 3,313 53 EUR 675,939 72 31,301 45 -49,726 62 18,425 5 GBP 249,529 70 -58,914 32 72,889 73 -13,975 27 JPY 251,291 90 -107,187 3 129,842 99 -22,655 7 CHF 44,269 20 -11,450 50 23,051 57 -11,601 29 CAD 153,302 32 21,226 68 -39,338 31 18,112 66 AUD 147,309 43 -28,837 58 20,800 34 8,037 72 NZD 41,098 26 365 72 503 31 -868 42 MXN 165,403 33 21,664 37 -26,214 62 4,550 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,553 68 44,572 94 -47,063 5 2,491 94 Bitcoin 11,276 61 -194 90 -175 0 369 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.6 3.3 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.9 69.1 3.5 – Net Position: 32,580 -35,893 3,313 – Gross Longs: 46,685 1,778 5,198 – Gross Shorts: 14,105 37,671 1,885 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.0 15.0 52.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 3.3 -5.8   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,060 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.7 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 61.0 8.7 – Net Position: 31,301 -49,726 18,425 – Gross Longs: 221,003 362,930 76,939 – Gross Shorts: 189,702 412,656 58,514 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.6 61.9 4.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 9.7 -10.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,054 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 74.6 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 45.4 14.4 – Net Position: -58,914 72,889 -13,975 – Gross Longs: 36,811 186,134 21,987 – Gross Shorts: 95,725 113,245 35,962 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.6 72.8 26.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.4 28.1 -2.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -107,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,827 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.1 86.0 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.7 34.3 17.3 – Net Position: -107,187 129,842 -22,655 – Gross Longs: 12,723 216,101 20,761 – Gross Shorts: 119,910 86,259 43,416 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.9 99.0 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.6 25.9 -3.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,942 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.6 71.7 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 19.6 47.9 – Net Position: -11,450 23,051 -11,601 – Gross Longs: 2,900 31,735 9,599 – Gross Shorts: 14,350 8,684 21,200 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 56.8 29.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 1.3 1.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,158 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 45.0 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 70.7 12.8 – Net Position: 21,226 -39,338 18,112 – Gross Longs: 44,063 68,989 37,784 – Gross Shorts: 22,837 108,327 19,672 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 31.1 65.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.4 -17.2 20.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.6 53.8 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 39.6 13.7 – Net Position: -28,837 20,800 8,037 – Gross Longs: 39,201 79,208 28,257 – Gross Shorts: 68,038 58,408 20,220 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 34.4 72.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 45.8 -42.8 19.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 365 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 45.9 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5 44.6 8.9 – Net Position: 365 503 -868 – Gross Longs: 19,081 18,853 2,797 – Gross Shorts: 18,716 18,350 3,665 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 31.2 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.4 -20.2 4.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,960 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 50.0 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 65.8 1.9 – Net Position: 21,664 -26,214 4,550 – Gross Longs: 73,710 82,643 7,701 – Gross Shorts: 52,046 108,857 3,151 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 61.9 62.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.4 12.1 10.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 44,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,129 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.2 17.6 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 84.3 2.5 – Net Position: 44,572 -47,063 2,491 – Gross Longs: 53,790 12,399 4,272 – Gross Shorts: 9,218 59,462 1,781 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.2 5.4 94.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 5.4 5.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.3 3.6 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.0 5.2 7.0 – Net Position: -194 -175 369 – Gross Longs: 8,263 408 1,155 – Gross Shorts: 8,457 583 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 27.4 21.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 19.8 4.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Markets are betting the Fed has it wrong again

US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump Euro (EUR) And British Pound (GBP). EUR Fails To Get Boost Post Macron Election Victory - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 25.04.2022 11:28
Summary: Macron's victory was supposedly expected to stabilize EUR. Fed further increase in yields strengthening USD. USD continues to strengthen against the EURO inlight of further US yield increases. Market sentiment for this currency pair is bearish as of market open today, the price is down almost 0,6%. On friday the Fed announced a further increase in the bond yields, this marks the seventh consecutive week that the Fed has increased the US yields. The European Central bank is still behind the Fed on their yield increases, the expectation for this change is increasing but the increased expectations are not helping the EUR to strengthen against the USD. EUR/USD Price Chart Read Next: ECB Announcements to Possibly Tighten Monetary Policy Strengthens the Euro. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD and EUR/CHF All Increased The EURO showed overall strengthening against the GBP over the past week. Since the market opened this morning the market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish. The EUR has strengthened against the GBP continuously over the last week. Today the increase has shown almost 0,3%. The EUR is strengthening as a result of the uncertainty with the Bank of England's future yields and the inflation causing personal spending to decrease, hampering the economy. In addition, the EUR strengthened against the GBP inlight of Macron taking the win in the French elections. EUR/GBP Price Chart   Read next: A Reward For A Transaction!? What Is Kishu Inu Coin? ($KISHU) Let's Take A Look At This New Altcoin | FXMAG.COM   EUR/JPY showing bullish signals. Since the market opened this morning the market sentiment is bullish for this currency pair. Despite the bullish sentiment, the price has still fallen by almost 0,8% since this morning. This currency pair is sensitive to trends in broad based market sentiment trends, therefore, inlight of Macron’s victory causing changes in market sentiment it is not surprising this price is seeing volatility. EUR/JPY Price Chart CHF Strengthening. Market sentiment for the currency pair is bullish at the moment. However, despite the bullish signals the price has still fallen almost 4% since the market opened this morning. The Swiss Franc has strengthened today causing this fall. EUR/CHF Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com Read next: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex  
Markets find balance ahead of fresh economic data and speeches from Lagarde and Powell (expect a local increase in EUR/USD and a decease in USD/CAD)  | InstaForex

Who's Gonna Stop Dollar (USD)!? EUR/USD Plunging Below 1.00? What A Surprise! Crude Oil Price Goes Down!

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 25.04.2022 13:42
Financial markets are likely beginning to ride a wave of fear that interest rates will be raised quickly, which could increase borrowing costs and could make it more expensive to raise dollars. Already last week, especially on Friday, the situation in the financial markets seemed very tense The downward wave seems to be sweeping through both the stock, commodity and cryptocurrency markets all at the same time. It's been a long time since we've seen every asset class inflicted with a single day of losses, except for the US dollar and US bonds. Already last week, especially on Friday, the situation in the financial markets seemed very tense. U.S. stock indexes seemed to be falling by nearly 3 percent, and today we could see a potential continuation of this downward wave. Before noon, contracts in the United States seem to have lost about 1 percent. Meanwhile, in Europe, the scale of falls seems to be greater, as the German DAX falls by almost 2 percent, and the Euro Stoxx 50 by more than 2.5 percent. Read next (by Conotoxia): (USD) Dollar Index - Fed Floors It! Hawkish Rhetoric And Interest Rate Hike? British Pound In Crisis? GBP/USD Affected By Weak Retail Sales Data!| FXMAG.COM The price of a barrel of WTI crude oil is down almost 5 percent today, to around $97 Declines in stock prices may also be accompanied by declines in commodity prices. The price of a barrel of WTI crude oil is down almost 5 percent today, to around $97. As a result, the price may reach its lowest level in nearly two weeks amid growing concerns that prolonged restrictions in China and sharp interest rate hikes in the U.S. will have a negative impact on global economic growth and fuel demand. Monday's declines extended last week's decline in U.S. crude as demand concerns outweighed worries about limited global supply. Demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in China in April is expected to fall 20 percent year-on-year, Bloomberg reported, equivalent to a drop in oil consumption of about 1.2 million barrels a day. On top of that, fears of a global economic slowdown or stagflation could also weigh on oil prices. The EUR/USD exchange rate could thus fall to levels last seen in March 2020, approaching 1.07 With high expectations for Fed action, the US dollar seems to be gaining in value. The EUR/USD exchange rate could thus fall to levels last seen in March 2020, approaching 1.07. The entire US Dollar Index could remain above the 100-point level. Read next (by Conotoxia): How To Hedge Against Inflation? Crypto? Is Bitcoin (BTC) The Answer?| FXMAG.COM Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Fluctuations Of Forex Pairs! US Dollar's Strength Against Japanese Yen Performance (USD/JPY), Jason Sen Comments On Euro To Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY) And NZD/JPY Forex Rate

Fluctuations Of Forex Pairs! US Dollar's Strength Against Japanese Yen Performance (USD/JPY), Jason Sen Comments On Euro To Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY) And NZD/JPY Forex Rate

Jason Sen Jason Sen 25.04.2022 10:11
USDJPY running out of steam in severely overbought conditions as predicted but there is no sell signal yet so I cannot suggest shorts. A break above 129.50 however targets 129.90/95 then 130.25/35, perhaps as far as 130.75/85. First support again at 127.80/70. Expect strong support at 127.10/126.90. Longs need stops below 126.70. A break lower can target 126.00. EURJPY no sell signal yet despite overbought conditions but less than positive candles for the last 3 days probably signal a consolidation ahead. Having held the next target of 139.95/99 perfectly, if we do continue higher look for 140.40/50 & 140.85/95. Minor support at 138.70/50 but below 138.30 can target 137.70/50. ON further losses look for 137.20/10 with best support at 136.50/30 this week. Longs need stops below 136.10. Read next (By Jason Sen): Can (XAUUSD) Gold Price Plunge To $1800!? Silver Price (XAGUSD) To Decrease As Well? | FXMAG.COM NZDJPY holding below 8540 is a sell signal for today targeting 8500 & perhaps as far as strong support at 8450/30. Longs need stops below 8410. First resistance at 8545/65. Shorts need stops above 8485. EURUSD holds 37 YEAR TREND LINE SUPPORT AT 1.0760/20. Longs need stops below 1.0670. Obviously there is nothing more important than this level this week. Again we must beat 1.0840/20 to target 1.0920/40. A break above 1.0960 is a buy signal targeting 1.1030/50. USDCAD messy as we trade sideways for 9 months. We are back above the February lows & the sideways 100 & 200 day moving averages. Further gains test the strongest resistance for this week at 500 day & 100 week moving average at 1.2775/85. Shorts need stops above 1.2800. A break higher should be a medium term buy signal. Read next (By Jason Sen): Euro To US Dollar (EUR To USD): That's An Amazing USD Performance, Will USDCAD (Canadian Dollar) Stay Close? USDJPY (Japanese Yen) Beats Records! | FXMAG.COM First support at 1.2660/40. Longs need stops below 1.2620 GBPCAD support at the April low of 1.6293/81 held again. Strong resistance at 1.6400/20. Shorts need stops above 1.6450. A break higher is a buy signal initially targeting 1.6530/50. A break below 1.6265 is a sell signal. Look for 1.6190/80. Please email me if you need this report updated or Whatsapp: +66971910019 – To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk
Podcast: Yen drop is outstripping fundamentals | Saxo Bank

Bitcoin Price Back on The Rise, Consumer Spending In The UK Falls In Light Of Inflation And The US Dollar Continues to Strengthen

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 26.04.2022 10:48
Summary: Bitcoin prices are increasing today after breaking support levels overnight. With consumer spending decreasing in the UK, the GBP is struggling to fight against the US dollar strengthening. With Australian inflation continuing to rise, the currency is weakening against and already strong USD. BTC/USD prices are increasing despite bearish market sentiment. We know that Bitcoin was the world's first digital currency and that its price is very volatile, making it historically popular for speculating traders. On Friday the price of Bitcoin dropped below $40 000, this reflected the midpoint of a 3 month long trade range. The price of bitcoin has increased by 5.55% since this morning. While market sentiment remains uncertain, current rises in the price of Bitcoin will likely be limited. As of this morning news broke that U.S Fidelity will allow employees to put Bitcoin into their 401(k) retirement savings accounts starting later this year, giving more people access to cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin Price Chart Read next: US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump Euro (EUR) And British Pound (GBP). EUR Fails To Get Boost Post Macron Election Victory - Good Morning Forex!  GBP Weakening against the USD. Market sentiment for this currency pair is bearish at the moment, the USD has been strengthening against the GBP over the past week. This strengthening comes with investor confidence being restored in the US dollar as a result of the Fed increasing yields for the 7th week in a row. The GBP inflation is causing a problem for this currency, as consumer spending decreases, the economy can expect a knock. GBP/USD Price Chart AUD Weakens against the USD. Since the market opened this morning, investor sentiment for the AUD/USD pair is bearish. Yesterday the price of the AUD/USD pair hit its lowest since March. This comes with the USD strengthening, once again thanks to rising U.S yields as well as the negative news out of China causing investors to short riskier assets. In addition, the AUD is struggling post inflation expectation announcements, the inflation is expected to increase for 2 consecutive quarters. Inlight of this, the USD is benefiting hugely from the AUD weakening. AUD/USD Price Chart Read next: U.S Yields Expecting Further Increases!?, Announcement Of PMIs Prelims For The Private Sector - FOREX Today  Sources: dailyfx.com, finance.yahoo.com
Saxo Spotlight: What’s on investors and traders radars this week? - 27/06/22

A Market Crash Is Coming? Check How S&P 500, Crude Oil, Hang Seng, USDCNH And Other Assets Performs

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 26.04.2022 10:34
Macro 2022-04-26 08:34 6 minutes to read Summary:  Market sentiment stabilized yesterday ahead of the heart of earnings season kicking off today, with the slide in the Chinese renminbi halted after official moves signaled some support for the currency. Still, the threat of Covid lockdowns looms in Beijing with tens of millions set for testing. Elsewhere, Elon Musk is set to take Twitter private in a debt-heavy deal, oil rebounded from a deep sell-off and gold has tested existential support. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - S&P 500 futures tested the 4,200 level yesterday as we highlighted was possible but found quick support before bouncing back to close above Friday’s close. That is a short-term positive signal but earning releases this week can still wreck this rebound trade, so we expect volatility to remain high over the coming days. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I) - with another round of supportive rhetoric from central bank officials and pledge from the State Council to boost domestic consumption, markets found a bid in morning trading but their gains pared in the afternoon. Hang Seng Index was up 1.5% while CSI300 was down modestly. Chinese mega cap internet names traded in Hong Kong and retailers traded in the mainland were among the top gainers. HSBC reported in-line earnings, but common equity tier 1 (‘CET1’) capital ratio came at 14.1%, down 1.7 per centage point from 4Q21. Share price fell over 3%. Stoxx 50 (EU50.I) - signals from PBOC to support the Chinese economy and better than expected earnings from HSBC, UBS, Santander, and a FY profit guidance increase from Maersk are lifting equity sentiment with Stoxx 50 futures trading around the 3,735 level in early trading hours. That puts European equity futures back into the trading range from the past two weeks, but technically European equities remain weak it requires good news from earnings, China, and the war in Ukraine to move things higher. GBPUSD and USD/commodity currency and USD/EM pairs – with some relief in risk sentiment yesterday, the US dollar rally eased after first having extended its strength earlier in the day. As noted below, much of the force of the recent move has been linked by a jolt higher in USDCNH, which after a long period of quiet is finally catching up to the broader picture of USD strength and adding to that USD strength elsewhere. The weakest of currencies against the greenback in recent sessions have been commodity-linked, EM and Asian currencies with a significant exposure to China, but also sterling, which has suffered a vicious sell-off as the outlook for the UK economy rapidly deteriorates amidst soaring cost-of-living headwinds, cratering confidence, supply-side limitations, and massive external deficits. GBPUSD traders may eventually eye the ultimate support of 1.2000. USDCNH  at the center of the recent violent extension of the US dollar rally has been a marked weakening of the Chinese renminbi, which has come after a long period of extreme quiet even as volatility picked up elsewhere. Yesterday, China moved to cut the reserve-ratio-requirement for Chinese banks’ forex reserves by 1% (to 8% from 9%) to increase the supply of USD, a gesture suggesting that the recent pace of CNY devaluation has proceeded more rapidly than desired. The PBOC overnight promised targeted support for the economy, but the concerns linked to China’s zero-Covid strategy and threat weighs of a lockdown of Beijing similar to the recent experience in Shanghai.  Gold (XAUUSD)  trades back above $1900 supported by higher oil prices and a softer dollar. This following a two-day sell off that was triggered by aggressive US rate hike signals and a sharp drop in silver (XAGUSD) on growth concerns. With support around $1890 holding once again the yellow metal needs a break above support-turned-resistance at $1915. The Fed is currently on a collision course with the PBoC which needs to add stimulus on mounting growth fears, and it raises the question of whether the FOMC will be able to hike rates as aggressively as expected by the market. Until that question gets answered, the market is likely to get its directional input from oil (inflation and geo-risk gauge) as well as developments in China. Crude oil (OILUKJUN22 & OILUSJUN22)  bounced back following a two-day decline that briefly saw Bent crude dip below $100. A lockdown related drop in Chinese demand for fuel together with the prospect of a rapid succession of US rate hikes to curb growth have been the focus this past week. However, with the supply picture being as tight as it currently is, especially with Europe considering a ban on Russian crude imports, any signs of an improve situation in China would attract a renewed bid. Until then these major opposing forces are likely to keep the market rangebound and nervous. In Brent, only a break below $98 would signal additional and potential deep losses from technical selling. Resistance just above $106.50 where the 21- and 50-day moving averages meet. US Treasuries (IEF, TLT)  were sold late yesterday after posting a new 1-week low in yields, taking the yield for the 10-year benchmark back into the range above 2.82%. The high for the cycle in that important yield has been just above 2.95% - with 3.00% perhaps a psychological resistance ahead of the 2018 high near 3.26%. What is going on? US planting progress and crop conditions continue to highlight a challenging situation. A weekly report released Monday showed corn planting (CORNDEC22) had advanced by 3% to being 7% complete, the slowest pace in almost ten years and trailing last year’s pace of 17%. Winter wheat rated good/excellent dropped 3% to 27% and was near the worst on record. The planting delays and conditions have been caused by the weather being too cold, too wet, or a combination of both. Big grain harvests in North America are needed this year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reduced shipments out of the Black Sea, from where 25% of the global wheat export originates, while raising doubts about this year’s crop production in Ukraine. Twitter board agrees with Musk on deal.  The two parties agreed yesterday with a purchase price of $54.20/share translating into a takeover market value of $44bn and part of the deal is massive use of debt which multiplied with the current interest rates will eat most of Twitter’s immediate operating profits, but since the company is going private the profit generation is no longer the main objective. Our view is that Musk’s acquisition of Twitter could be a problem for Tesla going forward as governments may use Musk’s ownership of Twitter against him in negotiations with Tesla. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says BoC considering 50 basis point hike.  In testimony before Parliament, Macklem admitted that the BoC “got some things wrong” in its policy mix, voiced concern about broadening price pressures and guided for further tightening. Bank of Canada rate expectations were actually slightly lower yesterday, with CAD moves of late, at least in USDCAD, yesterday more correlated with risk sentiment and crude oil prices. The Bank of Canada is already priced to hike at least 50 basis points at each of its next three meeting. USDJPY lacks direction ahead of BoJ meeting on Thursday. The Japanese yen gains yesterday and overnight were capped by a rebound in US treasury yields. Japan finance minister Suzuki said that there is no truth to the media report on Japan/US discussion on joint FX intervention. While there may be room for a further fall in USDJPY given the outsized gains we have seen so far, policy divergence between the Fed and Japan remains the key theme and any BOJ policy tweak this week remains on watch. US earnings recap.  Coca-Cola beat expectations yesterday and is seeing higher revenue growth than what analysts had expected suggesting analysts are behind the curve on inflation dynamics and what it means for revenue growth. Activision Blizzard also reported earnings yesterday, which is part of the entertainment industry, and reported worse than expected figures with revenue especially disappointing at $1.48bn vs est. $1.81bn. IMF warns on Asia stagflation risk.  IMF has said that the Asian region faces stagflationary outlook with growth being lower than previously expected and inflation being higher. The larger-than-expected slowdown in China due to prolonged or more widespread lockdowns, longer-than-expected slump in the property market, constitutes significant risk for Asia. Monetary tightening will be needed in most countries, with speed of tightening depending on domestic inflation developments and external pressures. IFO April German business confidence surprises on the upside.  The headline index was up at 91.8 versus an estimated 89.0. The current assessment index is moving upward too, at 97.2 versus estimated 95.9. Finally, the expectations index is out at 86.7 versus estimated 83.5. This is very positive, of course. But we think optimism will not last. There are several factors which will negatively impact the German economy in the coming months: the possible new cold war, prevalent supply chain disruptions, higher energy bills, the acceleration of deglobalisation etc. All of this will have negative consequences on the German export industry. Be ready for worse data in the coming months. Inflation is hitting the UK consumer hard. According to the latest ONS survey, 43 % of UK households said they encountered difficulties paying their energy bill in March and 43 % say they will probably be unable to save in the next twelve months. These data are compared with a year ago. Expect UK consumption to fall sharply in the coming months. The likelihood of a recession is increasing, of course. What are we watching next? Risk of further Chinese Covid lockdowns.  The current focus in China as Covid spreads there is Beijing, where partial shutdowns were already ordered yesterday of one region of the city, but with mass testing of 20 million Beijing area residents set to begin. The province of Inner Mongolia is also a focus on concerns that Covid-related disruptions are set to reduce rare earth metal production there. Technology earnings and their profit margins.  Net profit margins are confirming their downtrend in Q1 according to preliminary earnings data, but technology companies measured by the Nasdaq 100 are seeing less impact on margins from rising input costs. As technology companies are the biggest constituents in the main indices it crucial how these companies perform on earnings this week, but also that they can demonstrate less impact from inflation. The first test of this thesis is tonight with earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Visa. Earnings Watch.  Today’s earnings focus is on Microsoft, Alphabet and Visa which are all reporting after the US market close, which is the first real test of the US technology sector for the Q1 following preliminary disappointments from Netflix and yesterday’s Activision Blizzard earnings. Today: Kweichow Moutai, Ganfeng Lithium, First Quantum Minerals, Tryg, FANUC, Canon, HSBC, Banco Santander, Iberdrola, Atlas Copco, Novartis, UBS Group, Kuehne + Nagel, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, PepsiCo, UPS, Texas Instruments, Raytheon Technologies, General Electric, Mondelez, Chubb, 3M Wednesday: LONGi Green Energy, Teck Resources, DSV, Novozymes, Kone, Dassault Systemes, STMicroelectronics, Deutsche Bank, BYD, China Shenhua Energy, China Petroleum & Chemical, UniCredit, Keyence, GlaxoSmithKline, Lloyds Banking Group, Yara International, Iberdrola, Assa Abloy, SEB, Credit Suisse, Meta, Qualcomm, Amgen, Boeing, PayPal, ServiceNow, Ford, Southern Copper Thursday: Nokia, Sanofi, TotalEnergies, Denso, Hitachi, Barclays, Nordea, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Eli Lilly, Thermo Fisher, Merck, Comcast, Intel, McDonald’s, Linde, Caterpillar, Hershey, Twitter Friday: ICBC, China Yangtze Power, Midea Group, WuXi AppTec, TC Energy, Imperial Oil, Orsted, Neste Danske Bank, BASF, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Ping An Insurance, COSCO Shipping, Eni, AstraZeneca, BBVA, Hexagon, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Bristol-Myers, Honeywell, Colgate-Palmolive Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0900 – ECB’s de Cos to speak 1040 – ECB's de Cos to speak 1200 – Hungary Central Bank Rate Decision 1215 – ECB's Villeroy to speak 1230 – US Mar. Preliminary Durable Goods Orders 1300 – US Feb. S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index 1400 – US Apr. Conference Board Consumer Confidence 1400 – US Apr. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1400 – US Mar. New Home Sales 0130 – Australia Q1 CPI  Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app:    
This Week: UK GDP And NATO Summit! Eurozone CPI Will Be Released On Friday! | Oanda

Eurozone Amid War And Strong US Dollar (USD), Very Weak Euro (EUR), Poor Australian Dollar (AUD), Recovering (?) UK100?

Jing Ren Jing Ren 27.04.2022 08:31
EURUSD breaks critical support The euro struggles as the eurozone’s growth prospect dampens. The pair remains under pressure after it broke below a short-lived congestion area around 1.0770. A bearish breakout below March 2020’s lows near 1.0650 (a major demand zone) could send the single currency to 1.0580. In the meantime, the RSI’s double-dip in the oversold territory may trigger a buy-the-dips behavior. 1.0750 is a fresh resistance and its breach could alleviate the selling pressure. The bulls must clear 1.0840 before they could regain control. Read next: Powerful (USD), Really Strong (CAD) - US Dollar To Canadian Dollar, Solid NZD Performance, UKOIL To Stabilize? | FXMAG.COM AUDUSD sees limited bounce The Australian dollar recovers over a better-than-expected Q1 CPI reading. A break below March’s low at 0.7170 may have invalidated the recent rebound and put the Aussie on a reversal course in the weeks to come. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart indicates an acceleration to the downside. An extremely oversold RSI on the hourly time frame prompted sellers to take profit, driving the price up momentarily. Stiff selling pressure could be expected around 0.7370. 0.7100 would be the next stop in case of another sell-off. Read next: EUR/USD: US Dollar (USD) Supported By A 75bp Rate Hike!? EUR Influenced By Last Week's Activities, Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) May Not Stop Below $1980 | FXMAG.COM UK 100 struggles for bids The FTSE 100 tumbles as China’s lockdowns hit sentiment. A plunge below the demand zone at 7500 further weighs on the market mood after buyers failed to lift offers around this year’s peak at 7670. The RSI’s overextension led to a rebound. Nonetheless, downbeat sentiment capped the price at 7490 where a new round of sell-off started. Trapped buyers could be scrambling for the exit, compounding existing selling interests in the process. A deeper correction below 7370 would send the index to 7250. Read next: What Is Chia Coin? - (XCH) - First New Nakamoto Coin Since Bitcoin Launch (2009) | FXMAG.COM
Surprise OPEC decision could be a turning point for oil! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

EUR/USD Drops Below 1.07?!, GBP Weakens Against the EUR For The Third Consecutive Month, SNB Showing No Sign Of Tightening Monetary Policy

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 27.04.2022 10:17
Summary: The US Dollar continues to strengthen. The SNB shows no intention of tightening their monetary policy to fight inflation. GBP weakens amidst a slowing economy. EURO continues to weaken against the USD. Since the market opened today, the Euro has weakened by a further 0.15%, this continuing weakening comes as a result of strong U.S interest rates with little indication of the European Central Bank (ECB) attempting to play catch up. This interest rate differential between the United States and the Euro continues to favor the US Dollar. The likelihood of us seeing the EURO strengthen against the US Dollar will probably depend on the future decisions of the Federal Reserve. The market sentiment on this currency pair remains bearish. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump Euro (EUR) And British Pound (GBP). EUR Fails To Get Boost Post Macron Election Victory - Good Morning Forex!    GBP Weakens against most major currencies. As of the market open this morning market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. The GBP continues to weaken against the Euro for the third consecutive month. The weakening of the GBP comes in the middle of a sharp fall in the global stock markets, this is heavily impacting foreign exchange markets. In addition, the slowing of the UK economy is not helping the currency to recover. It is concerning that the GBP is weakening against most major currencies. EUR/GBP Price Chart CHF weakens against the Euro. Market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals as the Euro strengthens against the Swiss Franc. The inflation rate in Switzerland reached a 13 year high but the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is showing no indication of swaying from their loose monetary policy to fight against this inflation. EUR/CHF Price Chart USD/CHF The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bearish signals since the market opened this morning. The USD has been strengthening against the CHF, this comes as a result of the hawkish Fed amidst their fight against inflation at the same time the SNB is showing no intention of increasing interest rates due to the belief that this high inflation period is temporary. In addition, the SNB said it would limit the Swiss Franc’s currency appreciation after reaching a 7 year high against the Euro after the Russia-Ukraine war. USD/CHF Price Chart   Read next: Bitcoin Price Back on The Rise, Consumer Spending In The UK Falls In Light Of Inflation And The US Dollar Continues to Strengthen    Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, tradingeconomics.com  
FX: GBP/USD: plan for the US session on June 27 (analysis of morning deals). The sellers of the pound are back in business.

Oh No! EUR/USD Hit 5-Year-Low! Probably Euro Is Not That Week, But US Dollar... Oh My It's A Monster!

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 27.04.2022 15:36
The common currency does not seem to have a very successful time behind it. Only since the beginning of the year to the US dollar, the euro could lose almost 7%, and today we can observe the lowest EUR/USD exchange rate since 2017. Russia has stopped the flow of gas to Poland and Bulgaria and said it will remain cut off until those countries agree to pay in rubles The euro weakened to $1.065 and could be at its lowest level since April 2017. It seems that the Euro may be weakened by growth concerns and risks related to energy supplies from Russia. Russia has stopped the flow of gas to Poland and Bulgaria and said it will remain cut off until those countries agree to pay in rubles. Read next: Who's Gonna Stop Dollar (USD)!? EUR/USD Plunging Below 1.00? What A Surprise! Crude Oil Price Goes Down!| FXMAG.COM The latest data also showed that consumer sentiment in Europe's largest economy fell to a record low (the GfK consumer climate index in Germany fell to -26.5 by the end of April). Risk sentiment remains shaken by the war in Ukraine, rising inflation and policy tightening by central banks, which could translate into slowing global growth. French President Macron was re-elected with over 58% of the vote Money markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by half a point at its next two meetings and the European Central Bank to raise rates by 25 basis points in July in an effort to tame inflation, which is currently hitting record levels in Europe and 40-year highs in the U.S. Meanwhile, incumbent French President Macron was re-elected with over 58% of the vote. His rival Marine Le Pen received over 41% of the vote, the highest share of the far-right in an election to date, which could also be a bit of a risk going forward for Europe. Read next: US Yields Have Declined! Gold Price (XAUUSD) Is Back In The Game! Gold Trades Near $1900, COVID In China Leave Investors Unsure| FXMAG.COM A weakening Eurozone currency could have the effect of importing inflation Later in the day, the market may still be waiting for Christine Lagarde's speech from the European Central Bank, which could also have a potential impact on the Euro. A weakening Eurozone currency could have the effect of importing inflation, which could make it harder to fight rising prices, so the market may be wondering to what level the EUR can still lose before the ECB intervenes. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Every Trader And Investor Should Know Them! Options Contracts - What Are They? | Binance Academy

What Bank of Japan Is Going To Do? Solid USD Against Japanese Yen, SEK (Swedish Krone) To Be Supported By Riksbank Shortly?

John Hardy John Hardy 27.04.2022 14:15
Summary:  The Japanese government is rolling out a large fiscal package to ease cost-of-living pressures at a time when inflation in Japan supposedly remains muted. This is entirely out of step with the Bank of Japan doubling down on its accommodative policy mix, which has driven the Japanese yen sharply weaker this year. Will the Bank of Japan be forced to capitulate tonight? FX Trading focus: Bank of Japan meeting tonight as pressure on policy mix mounts, EUR and GBP in for fresh pressure on Russian NatGas threats, AUD and SEK ahead of Riksbank The JPY has found a bit of support this week on the consolidation in global bond yields. Yesterday saw a strong US 2-year Treasury auction that helped take yields lower at the front end of the curve as well, with risk-off finally strong enough in the background to see US treasuries serving as a safe haven. The falling yields factor by itself brings the JPY some relief, as has the Chinese decision to allow a so-far modest revaluation of its currency lower that will bring more relative support to the JPY if that move is extended. But to really reset the JPY level back higher after its runs to multi-decade lows in real-effective inflation-adjusted terms, we will need to see a policy change from the BoJ. The BoJ meets tonight, and while very few are expecting a shift, it wouldn’t take much of a hint to suggest the pressure on the BoJ via the weakening currency is becoming too strong to ignore. Even a hint that the Bank is mulling tightening without specifics could be enough to trigger a JPY rally, but spelling out that the bank is willing to tinker with its yield cap policy on 10-year JGB’s would likely spark an even sharper move. Meanwhile, the political pressure has to be mounting sharply as well: consider that overnight the Japanese government has passed a near JPY 6.2 trillion (approx. $50 billion) stimulus package aimed at offsetting cost-of-living pressures that are sorely felt by the most vulnerable in Japan. This at a time when inflation supposedly remains unsatisfactorily low. For whom the inflation bell tolls is an critical question both in Japan and globally as we have to consider that these cost of living pressures that may only measure in the mid- to high single digits nationally could weigh 20% or more for the consumption basket at the lower end of the income spectrum, in terms of rent, heating, food, etc. It’s an explosive cocktail for politicians and Japan is set for important lower house elections in July. The BoJ may not move tonight, but it can’t remain an immovable object in a rapidly moving world forever. Keep in mind that Japan is on holiday Friday and out for much of next week, so this could aggravate the volatility if the BoJ does deliver any new guidance or policy twists. Chart: USDJPY Watching the USDJPY pair and JPY crosses closely tonight over the Bank of Japan meeting for the reasons outlined above. Technically, the pair seems to have shied away from a test of the 130.00 level, while on the downside, any BoJ policy surprise could deliver tremendous intraday volatility – easily 125.00 or lower, given that the recent break level to the upside was all the way down at 116.35. JPY traders should tread carefully, considering long volatility plays in the options market if wanting to express a short-term view. JPY cross action may prove higher beta than the reaction in USDJPY itself. As well, Japan will be out on holiday over next week during the May 4 FOMC meeting so liquidity may prove thinner than usual. If we see Kuroda-san doubling down on the existing policy and a fresh surge in global yields, the uptrend could be reinvigorated for a try toward 135.00. It’s a pivotal week for USDJPY either way, in all likelihood. Source: Saxo Group Fresh euro woes. The euro touched new five-year lows versus the US dollar today, in part on general risk off, but perhaps even more so after Russia used Poland and Bulgaria as guinea pigs in its threat to cut off supplies of natural gas for importers unwilling to pay for the gas in rubles. Poland saw the writing on the wall on Russian gas a long time ago and had moved to reduce its reliance before the war in Ukraine and has considerable coal-based power it can mobilize to cover some  of the shortfall, so the impact on the zloty is considerable, but need not spin out of control. Alas, Germany is the chief focus as a full shutdown would crater German economic growth on the need to ration supplies. Meanwhile, ECB member Kazaks said yesterday he is in favour of a July ECB hike – looks like consensus is gelling on that timing for lift-off. The UK does not import Russian gas, but is under as much pressure as any other European country on the impact of any Russian supply disruptions because it is connected to the continent’s gas network and suffers the price rises together with the continental countries. An excellent commentary from Bloomberg’s Marcus Ashworth lays out the pressures on the UK economy here as it faces a “trilemma of high inflation, slowing growth and rising taxes”, with a collapsing currency possibly forcing the Bank of England to hike rates more than it would otherwise do (watching EURGBP as much as GBPUSD for the relative pressure on the UK as I would have already expected sterling to underperform more there than it has). GBPUSD looks set for a test of 1.2000 and possibly more to the downside if we are set for a significant deleveraging event across risky assets here. The Aussie tried to get a boost on news overnight that Chinese leader Xi Jinping called for an “all out” infrastructure building push to spark economic growth, but there are few details. As well, short Australian yields touched new cycle highs while yields elsewhere consolidated after the Q1 Australian CPI report came in far hotter than expected at 5.1% YoY vs. 4.6% expected and the core “trimmed mean” was out at 3.7% YoY vs. 3.4% expected. This has strongly raised the odds of a rate hike at the RBA meeting next Tuesday to above 70%. The solid drop in the trade-weighted AUD in recent days after it had spiked to near a 5-year high has likely helped the RBA to go ahead and just get started already. The Riksbank is widely expected to deliver its first rate hike since moving away from NIRP last year, with a 25 basis point move. Watch the rate guidance after Governor Ingves recently failed to push back against the market pricing a greater than 2% policy rate by the beginning of 2024 – while the February Riksbank meeting still forecast lift-off not to arrive until 2024! I like fading EURSEK upside, but the risk deleveraging here makes this hazardous tactically. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.Note especially the enormous positive momentum shift in the JPY head of tonight’s BoJ meeting – will BoJ deliver something that spikes momentum further or back to the downtrend? The USD uptrend reading of 8 is getting into extreme territory, but won’t necessarily calm if risk deleveraging continues/accelerates. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.The “hottest” market in a long while, as can be seen in all of the extreme ATR readings (the dark orange color indicates we are in the top decile of volatility in ATR over last 1000 trading days). Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – US Mar. Advance Goods Trade Balance 1400 – US Mar. Pending Home Sales 1600 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 2100 – New Zealand RBNZ deputy Hawkesby to speak 2230 – Canada Bank of Canada Governor Macklem to speak in Senate testimony 2350 – Japan Mar. Industrial Production 0100 – New Zealand Apr. ANZ Business Confidence survey 0130 – Australia Q1 Export / Import Prices
Equities retraced amid weak US consumer confidence and near completion of quarter-end rebalancing

Euro (EUR) Continues To Weaken Against The US Dollar (USD), Euro Under Pressure Amidst Russia’s Decision To Tighten Gas Supplies. GBP Strengthens Against the JPY.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 28.04.2022 10:28
Summary: USD closing in on the highest price in almost two decades. Russia tightens Gas supplies to Europe. GBP showing signs of stability against the JPY. AUD CPI rates shock market participants. Euro is, once again, bested by the US Dollar today. Since the market opened this morning the Euro has weakened further against the US Dollar. However, over the past 24 hours the EUR/USD currency pair price hit its lowest value since March 2020. Investor sentiment is mixed and according to Dailyfx.com, 78% of investors are net-long on the EUR/USD. The borrowing costs for USD in currency derivatives increased on Thursday as USD got closer to its highest value in almost two decades. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: EUR/USD Drops Below 1.07?!, GBP Weakens Against the EUR For The Third Consecutive Month, SNB Showing No Sign Of Tightening Monetary Policy    Euro Weakens as Russia cuts Gas supplies. GBP has been strengthening against the EUR in the past 24 hours as Russia cuts gas supply to the EU, in addition scientists are warning of EU stagflation and the potential for an economic recession looms. The uncertainty around Russia's future decisions regarding supplying Europe is a topic of concern, and could potentially weaken the Euro further. However, the current market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP finding stability against the JPY. Current market sentiment for the GBP/JPY currency pair is showing bearish signals, however since the market opened this morning, the GBP has strengthened against the JPY. The increase in the price since Wednesday comes with some market stabilisation, finally. It is worth paying attention to this pair amidst the changing market as we may see the price volatility continue as risk appetite changes. GBP/JPY Price Chart AUD shows strength against NZD. The AUD strengthened against the NZD inlight of its rise in CPI. The recovery of the AUD comes in the aftermath after a crash thanks to the lockdowns in China. The recovery of the AUD is dependent on the Reserve Bank of Australia and their future decisions on interest rates. AUD/NZD Price Chart   Read next: Bitcoin Price Back on The Rise, Consumer Spending In The UK Falls In Light Of Inflation And The US Dollar Continues to Strengthen    Sources: dailyfx.com, finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com
An unusual drawdown is the perfect ending to an unusual bull market

ING Economics: "Rates and FX are waking up to a less hawkish Bank of England reality"

ING Economics ING Economics 28.04.2022 15:36
Markets are expecting too much tightening from the Bank of England and are slowly waking up to a less hawkish reality. This means gilts will struggle to follow Treasury and Bund yields higher, and the curve should price out hikes. Sterling has started to react to the weaker consumer data and, barring a very hawkish surprise, risks look skewed to the downside In this article The gilt canary in the coal mine Click to scroll down FX: Waiting for the penny to drop We're expecting the Bank of England to hike in May and June, but the tone is turning more cautious. The BoE's voting pattern and lower growth forecast should be hints that hike expectations at the front-end of the curve are excessive. As the central bank hits the pause button in the summer, we expect markets to wake up to the less hawkish reality. The gilt canary in the coal mine After months of being at the forefront of the core rates market sell-off, with a clear underperformance in the second half of 2021 relative to US Treasuries and German Bund when the BoE ramped up its hawkish message, gilts are now warning that the sell-off is running out of steam. A string of weak sentiment data had the market re-rate recession probabilities and gave weight to the comparatively cautious tone adopted by the BoE.Breaking 2% to the upside remains a possibility for 10Y gilts but we expect them to continue to lag Bund and USTs if bond selling resumes. We foresee yields ending 2022 at 1.8% and the rally should accelerate next year. We also caution that impaired liquidity conditions in the gilt market make outright selling by the BoE less likely in the near term. Source: Refinitiv, ING The UK is far from being the only economy with a worrying growth trajectory, and we should eventually see German Bund and US Treasuries catch up to the gilt rally. Our best guess is that will happen in the third quarter this year once the Federal Reserve has a few hikes under its belt and once inflation has stabilised. It is however noteworthy that, after being ahead of the pack when it came to tightening, it now looks as if the BoE has the luxury to adopt a more prudent approach when inflicting more policy tightening on its domestic economy. Source: Refinitiv, ING We have been warning for months that the policy rate path implied by GBP swaps looked too aggressive, but that a turnaround was only likely once the BoE tightening cycle is well underway. "The gilt curve should re-steepen helped by deflating rate hike expectations" Hike expectations have now started to come off, but we think this is only the beginning of the adjustment lower. This has started a race between front and back end rates. We think curve dynamics will depend on when global yields peak. If we’re right in seeing a few more months of global bond sell-off, then the gilt curve should re-steepen during the same period, also helped by deflating rate hike expectations. Our four scenarios for the May BoE meeting and expected market reactions   FX: Waiting for the penny to drop Sterling has had a bad week at the office. The Bank of England's broad trade-weighted measure of the pound has sold off 2% over the last week due to a combination of weak UK consumer data and a much tougher risk environment on the pincer movement of higher US real rates and weaker Chinese growth prospects. Incidentally, GBP/USD has had one of the highest G10 FX correlations with global equities over the last few months. "Sterling has had a bad week at the office" In looking at the various EUR/GBP reactions to the four BoE scenarios outlined above, we have used our Financial Fair Value (FFV) model as a guide. This identifies key drivers of EUR/GBP pricing such as yield differentials, the shape of the UK yield curve, and the equity environment as inputs. The problem is those yield differentials have lost some of their explanatory power recently. In fact, one has to go back to earlier in 2021 when say a 5bp move in the GBP/EUR yield two-year differential was worth about a 1% move in EUR/GBP. A repricing lower of hike expectations means GBP could take a leg lower Source: Refinitiv, ING Assuming that the beta on the yield differential driver is lower, we present more conservative EUR/GBP levels in our scenario analysis above. Our baseline scenario sees some modest GBP weakness, for example, EUR/GBP to 0.8450 on the BoE event risk. But James Smith has been making his case that the BoE Bank Rate will end the year at 1.25% as opposed to the 2.15% currently priced by the market. If and when that penny drops, GBP could take another large leg lower and GBP/USD may end up far closer to the 1.20 level than we had originally forecast. TagsSterling | Interest Rates | Fx | Bank Of England DisclaimerThis publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more (link to: https://think.ing.com/about/content-disclaimer/)
Chart of the Week : Housing IS the business cycle

US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump The EUR, BoE Expected To Increase Interest Rates, SNB Remains Dovish, South African Rand (ZAR) Performance

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 29.04.2022 09:52
Summary: The US Dollar strengthens further. EUR/GBP investor sentiment has not changed regardless of the BoE’s expected announcement on interest rates. CHF weakens due to SNB dovish approach to monetary policy. A short look into the ZAR. The Euro has spent the past week trying to recover against the USD. Over the past week the Euro has been weakening against the USD. This comes from the continuous strengthening of the US Dollar, the hawkish Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) ended last week announcing they would push interest rates up for the 7th consecutive week in their fight against inflation. The Euro has been struggling to fight against the strengthening USD, the European Central Bank (ECB) has not tightened their monetary policy to fight inflation, because of the risk averse sentiment of investors in the current market, many are fleeing the Euro and turning to the stronger USD. However, since the market opened this morning, the EUR has slightly strengthened against the USD, whether or not this will continue is uncertain, the market sentiment is mixed for this currency pair. EUR/USD Price Chart Read next: Euro (EUR) Continues To Weaken Against The US Dollar (USD), Euro Under Pressure Amidst Russia’s Decision To Tighten Gas Supplies. GBP Strengthens Against the JPY.  GBP Weakens against the EURO during the past trading week. Since the market opened this morning, market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish, this means that investors are expecting the EUR to strengthen against the GBP. Over the past week, the overall trend is showing the EURO strengthening against the GBP, however, the rise of the EUR has not been smooth, the chart below shows the volatility this currency pair has felt this week. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to announce a rise in interest rates on Thursday in the fight against inflation, perhaps the GBP will start to see some strengthening against the EURO. EUR/GBP Price Chart Swiss National Bank As of the market open this morning the CHF has strengthened against the USD, however, the market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. Over the past week the USD has been strengthening consistently against the CHF. As the Fed continues their hawkish approach to the fight against inflation through tightening monetary policy, the US Dollar continues to trump most of its currency counterparts. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) believes this rise in inflation is only temporary and continues to stand by their loose monetary policy stance. USD/CHF Price Chart South African Rand (ZAR) weakens against the USD. The ZAR is the National Currency of South Africa and is used by Swaziland, Namibia and Lesotho, in general the ZAR tends to strengthen when investors are willing to take on more risk in developing countries' economies. Given the current economic pullback, the ZAR has been weakening against the current aggressively strengthening US Dollar. USD/ZAR Price Chart Read next: EUR/USD Drops Below 1.07?!, GBP Weakens Against the EUR For The Third Consecutive Month, SNB Showing No Sign Of Tightening Monetary Policy  Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com.
UK retail sales dip as confidence falls to another all-time low

"RBA Surprises with a 25 bp Hike" - Marc Chandler (MarcToMarket)

Marc Chandler Marc Chandler 03.05.2022 12:12
May 03, 2022  $USD, Canada, Currency Movement, EMU, Mexico, RBA, UK Overview: The large bourses in Asia Pacific but Hong Kong eased.  Japan and China's mainland markets are closed for the holiday.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.6%.  It gapped lower yesterday and has not entered the gap today.  US futures are a little softer.  The 10-year Treasury nicked the 3%-mark yesterday is just below there now.  European benchmark yields are mostly 1-3 bp higher, but the UK Gilt yield has jumped eight basis points, and Australia’s surged 13 bp after the RBA delivered a larger than expected hike.  The Australian dollar is the strongest of the majors, it is up about 0.70% near midday in Europe.  The Norwegian krone and New Zealand dollar are slightly heavier.  The other major currencies are a little firmer.  Outside of the South African rand and Mexican peso on the upside, the Thai baht and South Korean won on the downside, most emerging market currencies are little changed.  Gold, which two and a half weeks ago was testing $2000, found support near $1850 today.  June WTI is quiet in a roughly $103.50-$106 range.  US natgas is higher for a third session.  It is up about 4.3% after rising 3.2% yesterday.  Europe's natgas benchmark steady after gaining 3.1% last week.  Iron ore is off 1.5% while copper is about 1.3% higher after falling 3.2% yesterday.  July wheat is edging higher after falling for the past four sessions.    Asia Pacific The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the market by delivering a larger than expected 25 bp rate hike to kick-off the tightening cycle to 0.35%. The market had been leaning toward a 15 bp hike.  The central bank clearly signaled more rate hikes will be forthcoming and updated its forecasts to show inflation hitting 6% this year from 5.1% in Q1.  It projects inflation falling back to 3% by mid-2024.  This year's growth is put at 4.25% and 2% next year. A recent Bloomberg survey found the median forecast for this year's GDP was 4.4% and 2.8% for 2023.  The RBA also announced it would stop reinvesting maturing proceeds of its roughly A$650 bln balance sheet.  It reportedly has few bonds maturing next year.  Still, the market is pricing in an aggressive tightening cycle and sees the year-end cash rate at 2.80%, rather than 2.60% discounted yesterday.   With Japanese markets closed for holiday, the dollar has trade quietly against the yen.  It has been confined to a JPY129.85-JPY130.30 range.  It is inside yesterday's range, which was inside the pre-weekend range and remain within last Thursday's range:  ~JPY128.35-JPY131.25. The consolidative phase may help ease Japanese angst about the pace of the move.  Still, the price action is often associated with a continuation pattern, like a spring coiling.   Australian interest rates jumped on the surprise RBA move and the Australian dollar jumped to almost $0.7150.  It set a low yesterday near $0.7030.  The Aussie stalled and a break of $0.7080 now could spur a return to the $0.7030-$0.7050 area.  A move above $0.7200 is needed to improve the technical tone.  The US dollar edged higher against the offshore yuan, reaching a new high near CNH6.6980.  Recall it settled near CNY6.4040 at the end of last week.   Europe The UK's April manufacturing PMI was revised to 55.8 from a preliminary reading of 55.3.  It stood at 55.2 in March.  However, it was at 57.9 at the end of last year.  The Bank of England meets Thursday and the odds of a 50 bp move instead of 25 bp stands are less than 1-in-5, according to the swaps market.  That said, over the next four meetings through mid-September, the market has 125 bp of tightening discounted.  This implies that the market is pricing in a 50 bp. Italy's Draghi has endorsed a new spending package of 16 bln euros to help families and businesses cope with rising food and energy prices.  It will include a cash payment, energy subsidies, tax credits, and more funds for local governments.  If it sounds familiar, it is because similar plan was unveiled in February (~6 bln euros).  The earlier plan was going to be funded by a 10% windfall tax on energy companies’ profits.  It was expected to raise 4.4 bln euros.  The new plan is funded by hikes that tax rate to 25% and is projected to raise closer to 10 bln euros.  Recall that GDP contracted by 0.2% in Q1.   The eurozone reported a larger than expected jump in March producer prices.  The 5.3% month-over-month surge lifts the year-over-year rate to 36.8% from 31.5%.  Separately, the March unemployment rate stood at 6.8% after the February series was revised to 6.9% (from 6.8%).  In March 2021, the eurozone unemployment rate was an 8.2% and before the pandemic struck, it was at 7.5%.   The euro is pinned near its recent lows.  For the fourth consecutive session, it is straddling the $1.05 level.  For the third day, it has found some support near $1.0490.  Last week's low was near $1.0470.  There is little enthusiasm for the euro ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting tomorrow.  Note too that the upside looks blocked by chunky options struck at $1.06 that expire over tomorrow and Thursday (1.9 bln euros and 1.5 bln euros, respectively).  The next area of potential chart support is the low from last 2016 near $1.0340.  Sterling also remains in its recent trough.  It is trading inside yesterday’s range, which was inside the range set at the of last week, approximately, $1.2450-$1.2615.  Initial support now is seen near $1.25.   America The US reports March factory orders and the final durable goods report and the JOLTS report.  Given that Q1 GDP was reported last week, and these data points will not impact expectations for revisions or tomorrow's Fed announcement, no important market reaction is likely.  Arguably, the most important data today will be the April auto sales figures.  Although they trickle in and the market typically does not react to them, auto sales feed into consumption and retail sales.  They are part will likely be part of the US economic resilience this year.  The median forecast (Bloomberg survey) projects auto sales to increase to a 14.1 mln seasonally-adjust annual pace from 13.3 mln in March.  It would be the first increase since January.  Auto sales averaged 14.15 mln in Q1 and 12.76 mln in Q4 21.  In Q1 21, they averaged nearly 16.7 mln.   Canada's April manufacturing PMI disappointed yesterday, slipping from 58.9 to a still robust 56.2.  Still, it was really March reading that stands out.  Canada's manufacturing PMI has been with a 56-handle for four of the past five months back to last December.  Today, the March trade figures are due.  Canada is benefitting from a positive terms-of-trade shock.  The 3-month average trade surplus has risen to C$1.43 bln.  A year ago, it was practically zero.  It is the highest three-month since 2014.  A C$3.75 bln surplus is expected today, which would be the largest since 2008.   Mexico has a quiet economic calendar after yesterday's flurry.  The manufacturing PMI held below the 50 boom/bust level at 49.3 (from 49.2 in March).  However, the IMEF surveys have held in better.  Separately, worker remittances into Mexico reached $4.68 bln, just shy of last October's record $4.82 bln. In March 2020, the stood at $4.16 bln.     The US dollar briefly traded above CAD1.29 yesterday and set a new high for the year near CAD1.2915.  It pulled back initially but found support earlier today around CAD1.2835.  The market looks like it wants to test the CAD1.29 area again.  Today, there is a $585 mln option there that expires.  The high from last December was closer to CAD1.2965 and that is the next key chart area.  Last Thursday, the greenback surged to MXN20.6380 but has since largely held below MXN20.50. In fact, it has not closed above MXN20.50 since March 17.  It seems to be in a consolidative phase with support near MXN20.35.     Disclaimer
Weak German Ifo reading reminds us that stagflation is the base case

German consumers react to record-high inflation - "ING Economics"

ING Economics ING Economics 03.05.2022 12:20
Inflation in Germany is higher than it has been in decades and consumers are feeling the impact. In our latest ING Consumer Research survey, we take a look at how consumers adapt their financial planning, spending behaviour, and use of home energy and cars to deal with rising prices In this article Impact on budgeting and financial planning Perceived inflation at nearly twice the official figure Car use is down, but not so much for electric vehicles Three in four report having to deal with rising prices for daily-use goods Supporting those that are most impacted will be a challenging task Record-high inflation in Germany has had an impact on consumers’ budgeting and financial planning Impact on budgeting and financial planning German consumers are feeling the effects of record-high inflation numbers. A representative ING survey shows that nearly every other participant has made changes to their budgeting or financial planning. 22 percent have reduced payments into savings accounts or do not save anymore at all, 10 percent have taken money out of savings accounts to deal with rising prices and 7 percent even felt the need to borrow money or use credit lines. Have the rising prices impacted your budgeting or financial planning?Source: ING Consumer Research Perceived inflation at nearly twice the official figure While official headline inflation numbers reached a 40-year high in March at 7.3 percent (and went on to top that at 7.4 percent in April), consumers report even bigger numbers as their perceived inflation over the previous 12 months for goods and services they usually buy – 14.0 percent on average, nearly double the official figure. And they don’t expect inflation to stop there: 86 percent think that prices will continue to rise, whereas a mere 2 percent expect an easing of price pressures. 11.4 percent is the average expected price increase over the coming 12 months. Energy prices have played a large role in driving up inflation. Nearly 80 percent of German consumers report that energy costs with respect to their home have increased during fall and winter. Out of those, 44 percent have responded by using less heating. Over a third have reduced the use of electric and electronic devices. Have the rising energy prices led you to try to save more than before on utilities (electricity, natural gas, heating, etc)? Source: ING Consumer Research Car use is down, but not so much for electric vehicles But it’s not just energy for home use that has become more expensive – German consumers are feeling the inflation at the gas pump as well. More than half of those who own a conventionally powered vehicle report that they have reduced its use. This number is considerably lower for owners of hybrid and electric vehicles; here, 33 percent and 43 percent, respectively, even report increased use due to changing energy prices. These are most probably the ones that own more than one car with different types of power train and have shifted their driving habits from conventional to electrical use. Have the changing energy prices led you to use your car less or more? (Without those that reported a change in use unrelated to energy costs) Source: ING Consumer Research Three in four report having to deal with rising prices for daily-use goods Aside from energy costs, consumers are also impacted by rising prices across many different types of expenses. Daily-use goods such as food and groceries top the list with 75 percent of participants reporting price increases, even though more than half of these have not yet changed their spending habits. How has the rise in prices affected your spending on the following? Source: ING Consumer Research Supporting those that are most impacted will be a challenging task Those that have actually changed their spending behaviour are mainly trying to benefit from sales and special offers (84 precent), switching to cheaper brands is somewhat less popular (56 percent). Just over a fourth have even reduced their consumption to deal with rising prices. Special offers and cheaper brands can only go so far in helping people maintain their level of consumption; and those that feel the worst pressure from rising prices are probably the ones that in the past have already made the most use of these options. Supporting those that are most severely hit by rising prices will prove a challenging task – especially as a number of difficult political decisions lie ahead that could fuel the fire of rising prices even more. TagsInflation Germany Consumers Consumer spending   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Equities retraced amid weak US consumer confidence and near completion of quarter-end rebalancing

(EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Strengthen, BoEs Inflation Forecast and Economic Outlook Due On Thursday - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 03.05.2022 12:22
Summary: EUR/USD breaks below 1.05. BoE’s and Fed monetary policy decisions due on during the trading week. GBP relying on the Fed’s quantitative tightening decisions. EURO is under pressure. The EURO lost more ground to the USD during the trading day on Tuesday, the price is sitting below 1.05. The first quarter of 2022 has not been positive for the EURO, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict still raging, the post-covid world, the hawkish Fed and lockdowns in China, are all putting pressure on the already weakening EURO. The market sentiment for this currency pair is mixed. EUR/USD Price Chart Read next: GBP: BoE Expected to Raise Yields, US Dollar (USD) Strengthens across the board - Good Morning Forex!  GBP sees strength against the EUR The GBP has strengthened against the EUR since the market opened this morning, however market sentiment is showing bullish signals. The strengthening of the GBP comes in anticipation of the Bank of Englands (BoEs) announcements due on Thursday, the market expectation is to see a hawkish BoE. If the BoE remains dovish, we could see the EURO bounce back. EUR/GBP Price Chart USD/CAD beats March high on Tuesday. The USD strengthened against the CAD on Tuesday, it's a busy week for the USD, the Federal Reserve is due to announce its monetary policy decision. The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals, however, investor sentiment and confidence could easily be swayed in the coming days. USD/CAD Price Chart GBP shows strength against the USD. The Bank of Englands (BoE) monetary policy is the key driver for its small recovery against the USD, however the future of this currency pair lies in the decision of the Fed. The Fed is expected to begin the balance sheet reduction process through quantitative tightening could have adverse effects on the GBP. The market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish. GBP/USD Price Chart Read next: US Dollar (USD) Continues To Trump The EUR, BoE Expected To Increase Interest Rates, SNB Remains Dovish, South African Rand (ZAR) Performance  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Forex News: EURJPY, LH setting up sellers stacking candles?

Forex News: EURJPY, LH setting up sellers stacking candles?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 03.05.2022 10:52
Today’s focus is on the EURJPY, and for now, it’s from the sell-side. That might sound a bit strange based on the amazing buying we have been seeing in recent weeks but like everything, nothing lasts forever. Please note that we’re not calling it a trend change, but in the short term, some signs have started to stack up on the seller side. The first sign we can see is the break of the medium-term to the long-term trend. After that break, we saw a short steep counter that is typical of counter-rallies after a break lower. Currently, we can see a build-up of indecision that has formed an LH after the trend break. From 137.50 we can see plenty of supply from sellers halting any new attempt by buyers. These are, for now, all pointing to a possible push lower by sellers, but they have a few things to do before we can start thinking confirmed. First, we need to see minor support beaten to see a resumption of seller control. We would then look lower at 135.28 support and 134.60 support if that happens. If sellers can move below both of those levels, we could have a new downtrend on our hands. We have put in the forming downtrend abut we would like to see price remain inside that trend if it moved back to the support areas. If we see buyers maintain minor support and push to or through the new downtrend line, we would start thinking possible fail, and we would then move back to the drawing board with new focus on a possible retest of the April high if new HLs and HHs are formed. The BOJ and the Jen will also be a focus as they drove the recent rally, and it was primarily policy-driven. Any updates from the BOJ that resume JPY weakness could also be a factor in candling out the current seller price action. EURJPY D1 Chart The post Forex News: EURJPY, LH setting up sellers stacking candles? appeared first on Eightcap.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 22. COT reports. The pressure on the pound continues to build | InstaForex

US Dollar (USD) Expected To Strengthen As Investors Await Fed’s Interest Announcement (EUR/USD, AUD/USD), BoE are Expected To Raise Their Interest Rates (EUR/GBP), (AUD/USD) Showing Mixed Market Sentiment Signals, USD/CHF Is Bullish

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 04.05.2022 11:50
Summary: The Fed is expected to tighten monetary policy further. BoE is expected to raise interest rates. RBA raises interest rates for the first time since 2010. SNB remains dovish in their fight against inflation. EURO expected to weaken further against the USD. Market sentiment is bearish for this currency pair, the market sentiment comes as market participants await the Fed’s interest rate announcement, investors expect a further 50 bp rise in interest rates which will result in a stronger US Dollar. Prices are continuing to rise despite the hawkish Fed, if this continues after the next interest rate increase, there could be trouble for the USD. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: (EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Strengthen, BoEs Inflation Forecast and Economic Outlook Due On Thursday - Good Morning Forex!    GBP showing further strengthening potential against the EUR. The EUR has been weakening against the GBP since the market opened this morning. The GBP strengthening against the EUR comes with expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to increase the interest rate yields by 25bps. The European Central Bank (ECB) is still behind the United Kingdom when it comes to tightening monetary policies, causing the EUR to weaken. The current market sentiment for the currency pair is bearish. EUR/GBP Price Chart The Reserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates for the first time since 2010. Since the market opened this morning, the price of the AUD/USD has increased by more than 0.3%. Market sentiment for this currency pair is mixed. The AUD is not giving the USD more opportunity to strengthen. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised their interest rates for the first time since 2010, the tightening of monetary policy comes in an attempt to fight the rising inflation. The AUD is a risk asset, which means its price is levered to commodities. The US Dollar is expected to pull back against the AUD as the world slows down and the hawkish Fed continues its war against inflation. AUD/USD Price Chart CHF Weakens as SNB remains dovish. The US Dollar is expected to strengthen against the Swiss Franc with the market sentiment showing bullish signals. The continuing hawkish attitude of the Fed and the dovish attitude of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), means the strengthening of the USD against the CHF is likely to continue. USD/CHF Price Chart   Read next: GBP: BoE Expected to Raise Yields, US Dollar (USD) Strengthens across the board - Good Morning Forex!    Source: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
Intraday Market Analysis – AUD Is Still Under Pressure

Intraday Market Analysis – AUD Is Still Under Pressure

Jing Ren Jing Ren 04.05.2022 08:35
AUDUSD struggles to rebound The Australian dollar recovered after the RBA raised its cash rate for the first time in over a decade. A break below 0.7100 further weighed on sentiment. Caution still prevails as buyers are wary of catching a falling knife. The RSI’s oversold condition on the daily chart may attract increasing buying interest, notably some short-covering. Nonetheless, the bulls need to lift offers near 0.7170 before a reversal could gain a foothold. This year’s low at 0.6970 is a critical floor and its breach could send the Aussie into 0.68s. NZDUSD becomes overextended The New Zealand dollar steadied after the Q1 jobless rate met expectations. The break below January’s lows at 0.6540 sent the kiwi into a free fall. On the daily chart, a bearish MA cross exacerbated the downward pressure, though the RSI’s incursion into the oversold area may temper the bearish drive. A rebound to 0.6540 may be necessary to recover from the overextension, which could be an opportunity to sell into strength. June 2020’s low at 0.6390 would be the next target when momentum returns. UK 100 grinds resistance The FTSE 100 rallies ahead of the BOE meeting on Thursday. A bullish RSI divergence could be a soothing sign for the bulls as it indicates a slowdown in the sell-off. A bounce above 7490 prompted sellers to cover their positions, further easing the downward pressure. 7580 is the next hurdle and its breach would bring the index back to the double top at 7670, where a breakout could resume the uptrend in the medium-term. 7420 is an immediate support and 7300 an important level to keep the recent rebound intact.
Crude Oil Is Said To Shape Euro To US Dollar (EUR/USD). Forex Cable (GBP/USD) May Be Supported By BoE Sooner Than Later. (USD/JPY) - Can Japanese Yen Rise? | Oanda

(EUR/USD) ECB Reveals The Possibility Of Interest Rate Increases In July, Negative Investor Sentiment Towards The GBP, Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish For The AUD/JPY Pair - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 05.05.2022 10:53
Summary: Market sentiment turns bullish for the EUR/USD currency pair. Pound Sterling is facing selling pressure. Investor sentiment for the AUD changes. CHF/JPY finding a new trading range. Read next: US Dollar (USD) Expected To Strengthen As Investors Await Fed’s Interest Announcement (EUR/USD, AUD/USD), BoE are Expected To Raise Their Interest Rates (EUR/GBP), (AUD/USD) Showing Mixed Market Sentiment Signals, USD/CHF Is Bullish  ECB reveals the possible increase in interest rates in July The market sentiment on Thursday for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. On Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that there is a strong possibility that another 50bp hike in interest rates is possible, as the hawkish Fed continues in their fight against inflation. The bullish market sentiment comes with increasing investor confidence in the EUR after the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that an increase in the interest rates could be possible in July. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling losing ground on the forex market The EUR/GBP currency pair is currently showing mixed market sentiment. The GBP is facing pressure against the EUR, this comes hours before the Bank of England (BoE) is set to announce interest rate hikes and the possibility of quantitative tightening plans (process of selling some of the bonds purchased under quantitative easing). The GBP has lost ground against most other currencies, reflecting the negative investor sentiment towards the Pound Sterling. In addition, investor confidence in the EUR has improved. EUR/GBP Price Chart AUD gains on JPY overnight Investor sentiment is currently showing bullish signals. The price of this currency pair strengthened since Wednesday as a result of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deciding to tighten their monetary policy. Investor sentiment for the AUD has turned positive, despite the recent losses faced by this currency. AUD/JPY Price Chart CHF/JPY signalling bullish market sentiment Both of these currencies are viewed as safe-haven currencies, due to their financial properties and low interest rates. Market sentiment is still bullish for this currency pair. The CHF/JPY tend to trade within similar ranges, which is unsurprising due to their similar fundamental characteristics, right now the currency pair is finding a new range to trade in. CHF/JPY Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Strengthen, BoEs Inflation Forecast and Economic Outlook Due On Thursday - Good Morning Forex! Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, poundsterlinglive.com, dailyfx.com
Forex News: GBPUSD beats its range. Can buyers start a new leg higher?

Forex News: GBPUSD beats its range. Can buyers start a new leg higher?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 05.05.2022 10:01
Today’s focus is on GBPUSD after its solid rally yesterday after markets surged to the USD after the FOMC statement suggested the Fed might not be as aggressive in its policy to combat inflation. The message also confirmed that the policy would do its best to help the US economy achieve a softish landing, and Powell did comment that inflation remains much too high. Let’s look at the GBPUSD. Price remains in a long-term downtrend. The last key leg we saw was a sharp down leg as the USD continued to fly higher over the previous week. Since the last low was put in on the 28th of April, we have seen a range develop, and that pattern was in place until yesterday, before buyers broke through it to the upside after the FMOC. This break has us thinking, can we see a new leg higher set up after this break? Price so far has been weaker today will sellers retracing over 50% of yesterday’s move. Buyers have been fighting back into today’s European session, and expectations are that the BOE may raise rates again today. Could this continue to give the Cable a boost and send price back up to yesterday’s high? A break and close above yesterday’s high could confirm a new up leg. A close back below the HL is a worry and could suggest that buyer momentum might now be that firm. If we do see a new close above yesterday’s highs and buyers can continue to hold momentum, we would be looking at the closest trend line as a possible higher target. Today’s BOE rates decision is at 9:00 pm AEST. Rates are expected to increase to 1%. GBPUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: GBPUSD beats its range. Can buyers start a new leg higher? appeared first on Eightcap.
German inflation comes down as government measures bite

(EUR/USD) All Eyes On The US Bureau Of Labour Statistics’ Results Due On Friday, (EUR/GBP) Bleak Economic Outlook For the UK Sends GBP Spiralling - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 06.05.2022 11:20
Summary: US forex and stock markets await labour statistics. The UK economic outlook shocks the market. CHF weakens further.   Read next: (EUR/USD) ECB Reveals The Possibility Of Interest Rate Increases In July, Negative Investor Sentiment Towards The GBP, Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish For The AUD/JPY Pair - Good Morning   EUR shows slight strengthening against the US Dollar The price of the EUR/USD currency pair has increased since the market opened this morning. The strengthening of the Euro comes as the market awaits the release of the latest nonfarm payrolls data due from the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics, which are expected to have decreased over the past month. If there were any chance of the labour crisis being improved, the Fed may slow on their aggressive monetary policy. The market sentiment for this currency pair is mixed, investors are awaiting the announcement from the Bureau of Labour Statistics, if the results are favourable, we could see the US Dollar strengthen even more, if the results are below market expectations, we could see the EUR temporarily strengthen further against the US Dollar during the trading day. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP weakens against the EUR Market sentiment is showing bullish signals for this currency pair. On Thursday the Bank of England (BoE) announced their May economic forecast, which reflected a bleak picture. The BoE forecasted inflation to reach around 10% by the end of the year, along with expectations that the UK economy will slow, this forecast made the market turn away from the GBP. In the current economic environment, it is likely that other economies will face the same issues as the UK. EUR/GBP Price Chart CHF continues to weaken against the USD This currency pair is showing bullish market signals for the future. The US Dollar continues to strengthen against the Swiss Franc, the hawkish Fed and dovish SNB are factors driving investors to be net-short. USD/CHF Price Chart USD shows strength against the GBP. The GBP has weakened substantially against the USD in the past 24 hours. The Weakness of the pound sterling is reflective of the fact that the market and the Bank of England (BoE) have differing views of where they believe interest rates are going. Despite the BoE announcing that more interest rate hikes are on the way, markets have still reflected their lack of confidence in the currency. The hawkish Fed continues to drive the US Dollar's strength. GBP/USD Price Chart   Read next: US Dollar (USD) Expected To Strengthen As Investors Await Fed’s Interest Announcement (EUR/USD, AUD/USD), BoE are Expected To Raise Their Interest Rates (EUR/GBP), (AUD/USD) Showing Mixed Market Sentiment Signals, USD/CHF Is Bullish    Sources: finance.yahoo.com, bankofengland.co.uk, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
British pound (GBP/USD). Sterling falls below 1.23

British pound (GBP/USD). Sterling falls below 1.23!

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 06.05.2022 12:22
The British pound has stabilized on Friday, after sustaining huge losses a day earlier. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2342 in the European session, down 0.11%. Earlier, the currency fell to 1.2276, its lowest level since June 2020.   BoE warning chills the pound The BoE dutifully raised interest rates at its meeting on Thursday, but the market reception was a chilly one. GBP/USD plummeted a staggering 2.21% on the day. Investors gave a thumbs-down to the grim message from the central bank, as a fourth straight rate hike in as many meetings became an afterthought. The BoE’s growth forecast for 2022 remained at 3.75%, but it slashed the 2023 projection from 1.25% to -0.25%. At the same time, the central revised upwards its inflation forecast for Q4 to above 10%, up from 8% in an April forecast. The ‘double-whammy’ of higher rates and a deteriorating economic outlook sent the British pound reeling after the BoE meeting. The rate decision was a 6-3 vote, with all three dissenters voting in favor of a 0.50% rate hike. This surprised the markets, which had expected an 8-1 vote. There is a deep split in the MPC, with Governor Bailey acknowledging after the meeting that an uncertain economic outlook had led to a range of views in the MPC. Such a statement can hardly be expected to instill confidence in the markets. In its policy summary, the BoE signalled that more rate hikes are coming, and also dropped the word “modest” to describe upcoming rate hikes. Yet the markets were not impressed  – the 0.25% was modest, and with the BoE warning about 10% inflation, it’s clear that it will take quite some time before rate hikes do the job and wrestle down sizzling inflation. The US dollar initially lost ground after the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, as investors seized on Fed Chair Powell’s statement that the Fed was not considering a 0.75% rate hike. The greenback has since bounced back, as the markets digest that the Fed plans to be aggressive with further 0.50% hikes in its battle to bring down inflation.   GBP/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.2612 and 1.2719 GBP/USD tested support at 1.2272 in the Asian session. Below there is support at 1.2179           This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Indices, Forex, and Commodities Real-Time Insight, with Andrew Lockwood

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Indices, Forex, and Commodities Real-Time Insight, with Andrew Lockwood

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 06.05.2022 12:43
Join Andrew Lockwood from ForexSignals.com, for Monday’s Trading Week Ahead Live, as he takes you through his markets to monitor for the upcoming week. Watch as he analyses the Indices, Forex, and Commodities markets, and shares his potential trade opportunities for the week. JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE! Do you want to continue monitoring the markets reviewed in Monday’s Trading Week Ahead Live? Then Join us this coming Wednesday, at 7 PM AEST (10 AM BST), as Andrew continues his analysis from Monday. Watch him as he looks back at moves and developments made since Monday, and shares where he foresees the market heading as we approach the weekend. Register Now This is the perfect opportunity to help you summaries the levels you’re watching and understand the movements being made. As usual, at the end of the session, there will be a live Q&A, for you and the rest of the Trade Zone community to ask Andrew Lockwood all your market and trade-related questions. So if you are not sure about the reasons behind a market movement, or you would like to know more about any of the pairs or commodities covered this week? This is the place to come to get the answers you need. So join us and enjoy… And as always remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Indices, Forex, and Commodities Real-Time Insight, with Andrew Lockwood appeared first on Eightcap.
US Close: Another strong employment report, Wages growth slows, Stocks volatile, Oil rallies, Gold steadies

US Close: Another strong employment report, Wages growth slows, Stocks volatile, Oil rallies, Gold steadies

Ed Moya Ed Moya 06.05.2022 23:33
US stocks appear to be on a permanent rollercoaster ride as investors debate continued signs of a strong economy alongside rising rates, which remains a drag on higher valuation companies. For Wall Street to remain fully confident in piling back into stocks, inflation needs to be showing signs it is easing and that is not happening yet. ​ ​   Market conditions look dangerous but some of these discounts are looking very attractive. ​ It seems that the base case is still that the inflation peak is in place and that the Fed will look to signal a gradual tightening path. Unless inflation shocks prove otherwise, the risk-reward ratios for some of the beloved mega-cap tech stocks are looking attractive. ​ It won’t happen immediately, but when the economy starts to show signs of weakness, that will give investors the green light to buy stocks.   Investors just can’t confidently buy stocks as too much uncertainty persists with what will happen with global growth and how far the Fed will take tightening beyond the summer. ​   NFP The US labor market remains strong as broadbased hiring continues. The economy added 428,000 in April, much more than the analysts estimate of 380,000, also matching the slight downward revision in the prior month. Wage pressures might be showing signs of easing as average hourly earnings ticked lower. ​ Still most signs suggest the labor market is tight and that wage pressures are not quite ready to post a meaningful drop. ​ ​ The labor market remains robust and that should keep the Fed’s half-point tightening on cruise control until the Jackson Hole Symposium.   Oil Crude prices just want to head higher as energy traders completely fixate over the looming European sanctions on Russian oil. ​ No one wants to be on the wrong side of a major crude supply disruption headline, so whatever oil price dips that happen will be short-lived. ​ US oil rig counts continue to rise, but that has not led to increased production. ​ The weekly Baker Hughes report showed oil rig counts rose by 5 to 557 rigs. ​   Gold Gold prices are still licking their wounds following the bond market selloff. ​ Eventually investors will need additional safe-havens, so gold might start to attract some flows if the dollar softens as the global bond market selloff extends. The dollar is slightly softer today, but that doesn’t mean it is ready to lose its crown. ​ Gold could still remain vulnerable to further downward pressure if inflation does not show further signs of peaking next. ​   Gold is trending right between the 50- and -200 day simple moving averages but still looks like it isn’t quite ready to rally. ​ Next week will be pivotal for inflation expectations and for Fed speak that could confirm their commitment to tightening by half a point per meeting until the Jackson Hole Symposium. ​   Read on Oanda This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Week Ahead – Volatile Markets

Volatile Markets: US Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), Russian Ruble (RUB)

Ed Moya Ed Moya 07.05.2022 14:21
Every asset class has been on a rollercoaster ride as investors are watching central bankers all around globe tighten monetary policy to fight inflation.  Financial conditions are starting to tighten and the risks of slower growth are accelerating.   The focus for the upcoming week will naturally be a wrath of Fed speak and the latest US CPI data which is expected to show inflation decelerated sharply last month. A sharper decline with prices could vindicate Fed Chair Powell’s decision to remove a 75 basis-point rate increase at the next couple policy meetings.   A close eye will also stay on energy markets which has shown traders remain convinced that the market will remain tight given OPEC+ will stick to their gradual output increase strategy and as US production struggles to ramp up despite rising rig counts.  Energy traders will continue to watch for developments with the EU nearing a Russian energy ban. US inflation expected to drop Oil rallies as EU nears Russian energy ban Gold remains vulnerable if bond market selloff accelerates US Market volatility following the FOMC decision won’t ease up anytime soon as traders will look to the next inflation report to see if policymakers made a mistake in removing even more aggressive rate hikes off the table over the next couple of meetings.  The April CPI report is expected to show further signs that peak inflation is in place.  The month-over-month reading is expected to decline from 1.2% to 0.2%, while the year-over-year data is forecasted to decrease from 8.5% to 8.1%. The producer prices report comes out the next day and is also expected to show pricing pressure are moderating.  On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for the month of May should show continued weakness. The upcoming week is filled with Fed speak that could show a divide from where Fed Chair Powell stands with tightening at the June and July meetings.  On Tuesday, Fed’s Williams, Barkin, Waller, Kashkari, Mester, and Bostic speak.  Wednesday will have another appearance by Bostic. Thursday contains a speech from the Fed’s Daly.  On Friday, Fed’s Kashkari and Mester speak.   UK The Bank of England delivered a 0.25% rate hike at this week’s meeting. This brings the benchmark rate to 1.00%, its highest since 2009. At the same time, the BoE painted a grim economic picture at the meeting, as it revised its inflation forecast to above 10% and warned of a recession. The UK releases GDP for Q1 on Thursday. The consensus estimate stands at 1.0% after a 1.3% gain in Q4 of 2021. A loss of momentum in the economy could mean a contraction in the second quarter, raising the likelihood of stagflation. The only new data in the GDP report will be the March figures, as January and February were already published. The estimate for March is for a flat reading, after gains of 0.1% in February and 0.8% in January.   EU The Russia/Ukraine war and the sanctions against Russia have dampened economic activity in the eurozone. Germany, the largest economy in the bloc has been posting weak numbers as the war goes on. With the EU announcing it will end Russian energy imports by the end of the year, there are concerns that the German economy could tip into a recession. On Tuesday Germany releases ZEW Survey Expectations, which surveys financial professionals. Economic Sentiment is expected to decline to -42.5 in May, down from -41.0 in April. On Friday, the Eurozone releases Industrial Production for March. The Ukraine conflict has exacerbated supply line disruptions, which is weighing on industrial production. The sharp drop in German Industrial Production (-3.9%), suggests that the Eurozone release will also show a contraction. The March estimate is -1.8%, following a gain of 0.7% in February.    Russia Russia’s inflation has been accelerating sharply since the invasion of Ukraine. In March, CPI rose to 16.7% (YoY) and is expected to climb to 18.1% in April. The driver behind the sharp upswing has been Western sanctions, which have reduced the availability of consumer imports and key components for domestic products. CPI is expected to continue to climb in the coming months.   China China releases its Balance of Trade on Monday and Inflation on Tuesday. Both have downside risks given the disruption to business and the collapse in property sales and sentiment due to the covid-zero policy. Restrictions continue tightening in Beijing and the covid-zero policy has become the biggest headwind to a China recovery. The government reaffirmed its commitment to the policy Friday, sending China stocks lower. Additionally, US-listed China stocks face new delisting risk from US regulators that is weighing on Hong Kong markets especially, where most dual listings live. Negative headlines around Covid 19 or US delisting over the weekend could send China equities sharply lower into the start of the week. USD/CNY and USD/CNH have now risen from  6.4000 to 6.7000 in just two weeks. The PBOC remains comfortable at this stage, being a back door stimulus to manufacturers. The PBOC USD/CNY fixing will be the key indicator as to whether the authorities have said Yuan depreciation has gone far enough.   India The Reserve Bank of India sprung a surprise rate hike on markets this past week, sending the Sensex lower whilst providing some support to the INR temporarily. India’s CPI inflation release on Thursday will be this week’s key risk event. If the data comes in above expectations at 7.30%, expectations will rise of a faster more aggressive hiking cycle from the RBI which was quite hawkish in its guidance after the hike. THat will send Indian equities sharply lower once again, while possibly mollifying the impact on the INR from a rampant US Dollar.   Australia Australia could be a correlation trade for the tier-1 PMI releases from China over the weekend. Poor China data could see the AUD and local equities pressured with most of Asia, ex-Japan closed.SImilarly, a decent showing by the China PMIs will have a positive impact. Markets, especially currency markets, could face liquidity issues and see sharp moves if the weekend news wire is heavy as Australia and Japan will be the only two major centres open. Most attention will be focused on Tuesday’s RBA rate decision. A 0.15% hike is fully priced by markets and the clouds from Ukraine and China are weighing heavily on AUD/USD anyway. If the RBA does not hike AUD/USD could fall sharply in the short-term. If the RBA hikes and adjusts its guidance to a more hawkish, AUD/USD could potentially see a big move higher.   New Zealand NZ Retail Card Spending has downside risks and the Food Price Index, upside risks this week. The cost of living has become the central issue in New Zealand at the moment and a high FPI will heap pressure on the RBNZ to accelerate rate hikes as the economy starts to show signs of stress elsewhere. NZD/USD has traded very heavy in past two weeks as investors price in a hard landing and an RBNZ behind the curve, and as risk sentiment sours internationally. NZD/USD is closing at the weeks lows and could test 0.6200 this week.   Japan Japan releases a raft of second tier data this week. THe 10 and 30-year JGB auctions will be closely watched, if only for signs of poor cover ratio given the BOJ JGB intervention and weakening Yen. THe centre of attention will remain the USD/JPY as the US/Japan rate differential widens. USD/JPY could well test 135.00 in the week ahead if the negative sentiment sweeping markets on Friday spills into next week. Higher oil prices will also weigh onthe Yen. We expect the noise to increase from Tokyo but little chance of USD/JPY intervention at these levels.   Singapore No significant data. The currency remains under pressure as a proxy for China and also because the MAS meets six monthly to determine monetary policy. The next meeting will not be until October to determine if monetary policy gets tightened once again.      Markets OilCrude prices are steadily rising as the EU is making progress towards its Russia oil sanctions ban. The oil market will remain tight going forward now that OPEC+ is set on delivering meager output increases and as US production struggles despite rising rig counts. The biggest uncertainty for the crude demand outlook remains the outlook for the Chinese economy. China won’t be abandoning their zero-COVID policy anytime soon and that will keep the short-term crude demand outlook vulnerable. China’s COVID situation might not be improving anytime soon and now that the data is showing the impact of business restrictions is more widespread than just to Shanghai and Beijing. Oil will remain a volatile trade going forward with most of the fundamentals still pointing to higher prices. GoldJust when gold seems to be showing signs it is getting its luster back, the bond market says ‘not so fast’.  Gold continues to struggle in this current environment of surging global bond yields and that might last a little while longer as some central banks for the purpose of defeating inflation might be willing to send their respective economies into a recession. Gold’s awful few weeks of trade has seen a collapse of the $1900 level and that should prove to be key resistance now.  If the bond market selloff accelerates and the dollar surges, gold could be vulnerable to a drop towards $1835 and if that does not hold, $1800 might be targeted. Bitcoin Confidence in crypto markets is waning after Bitcoin tumbled below the $37,000 level following the surge in global bond yields.  If risk appetite does not return, Bitcoin could be vulnerable to a significant drop towards the $30,000 level.  Choppy trading between $35,000 and $40,000 could be where Bitcoin settles if Wall Street does not price in much more tighter monetary policy by the Fed.
Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Invest Macro Invest Macro 07.05.2022 14:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the continued drop in speculator bets for European common currency futures contracts. Euro speculators reduced their bets for the third straight week this week and have now trimmed the net position by a total of -45,438 contracts over this three-week period. This decreasing sentiment among speculators accelerated this week with a large drop of -28,579 contracts and knocked the net contract level back into a bearish position for the first time since the beginning of October 2021. The fundamental backdrop for the euro is one of weak growth and low interest rates compared to many of the other major currency countries. The Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of 2022 amounted to just 0.2 percent growth following a fourth quarter of 2021 growth reading of 0.3 percent. The war in Ukraine combined with surging inflation and weakening consumer demand has some banks believing a GDP contraction could be on the horizon while others see parity in the euro versus the US dollar as inevitable. Eurozone interest rates are forecasted to rise this year but they have been behind their major currency counterparts. The US, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand have all raised their benchmark interest rates over the past quarter and look likely to see more over the year, possibly widening the interest rate differential even more if the European Central Bank does not act. This week was a very rare week when all the currencies we cover had lower speculator bets including the Euro (-28,579 contracts), Canadian dollar (-11,852 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,676 contracts), Mexican peso (-5,503 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,259 contracts), Brazil real (-5,096 contracts), British pound sterling (-4,192 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,038 contracts), US Dollar Index (-808 contracts), Australian dollar (-865 contracts) and Bitcoin (-24 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-03-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,092 76 33,071 83 -35,684 15 2,613 45 EUR 694,926 80 -6,378 33 -24,586 69 30,964 26 GBP 268,496 82 -73,813 21 89,026 82 -15,213 24 JPY 254,813 92 -100,794 7 120,264 94 -19,470 14 CHF 49,385 31 -13,907 46 30,542 68 -16,635 7 CAD 152,779 32 9,029 56 -12,959 51 3,930 38 AUD 152,257 46 -28,516 58 34,225 44 -5,709 39 NZD 50,844 45 -6,610 60 9,879 46 -3,269 14 MXN 151,933 27 14,623 34 -18,552 65 3,929 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,549 56 41,788 91 -43,371 9 1,583 83 Bitcoin 10,051 52 388 100 -429 0 41 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,879 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.5 2.7 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.4 68.6 5.0 – Net Position: 33,071 -35,684 2,613 – Gross Longs: 46,264 1,439 5,296 – Gross Shorts: 13,193 37,123 2,683 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.8 15.3 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -3.6 -13.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,201 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 55.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 58.7 8.2 – Net Position: -6,378 -24,586 30,964 – Gross Longs: 208,449 383,222 88,267 – Gross Shorts: 214,827 407,808 57,303 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.0 69.0 25.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 6.2 13.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -73,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,621 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 77.7 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 44.6 13.3 – Net Position: -73,813 89,026 -15,213 – Gross Longs: 33,536 208,754 20,590 – Gross Shorts: 107,349 119,728 35,803 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.8 82.3 24.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 22.8 -4.3   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -100,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,535 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.3 84.6 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.8 37.4 14.7 – Net Position: -100,794 120,264 -19,470 – Gross Longs: 18,585 215,563 18,007 – Gross Shorts: 119,379 95,299 37,477 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.8 94.3 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.5 13.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,869 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 75.8 15.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.0 13.9 48.7 – Net Position: -13,907 30,542 -16,635 – Gross Longs: 4,357 37,429 7,397 – Gross Shorts: 18,264 6,887 24,032 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 5.4 to 1 0.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 68.3 7.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.6 11.9 -14.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,881 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.2 47.5 21.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.3 56.0 18.4 – Net Position: 9,029 -12,959 3,930 – Gross Longs: 44,670 72,629 32,093 – Gross Shorts: 35,641 85,588 28,163 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.7 51.2 37.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -4.0 -17.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,651 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.9 52.6 14.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 30.2 17.8 – Net Position: -28,516 34,225 -5,709 – Gross Longs: 46,995 80,147 21,330 – Gross Shorts: 75,511 45,922 27,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.4 44.4 38.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.0 -10.6 -20.8   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 60.6 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.3 41.1 11.2 – Net Position: -6,610 9,879 -3,269 – Gross Longs: 17,427 30,789 2,423 – Gross Shorts: 24,037 20,910 5,692 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.2 45.6 14.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.3 18.4 -32.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 14,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,126 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.0 52.3 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 64.5 1.9 – Net Position: 14,623 -18,552 3,929 – Gross Longs: 63,860 79,394 6,771 – Gross Shorts: 49,237 97,946 2,842 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.6 65.1 59.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.9 -13.5 -0.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,884 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.2 13.5 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 83.9 2.8 – Net Position: 41,788 -43,371 1,583 – Gross Longs: 49,991 8,280 3,278 – Gross Shorts: 8,203 51,651 1,695 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.4 9.0 83.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.2 1.1 -15.4     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 412 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 3.0 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.9 7.2 8.2 – Net Position: 388 -429 41 – Gross Longs: 8,121 298 867 – Gross Shorts: 7,733 727 826 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.5 7.1 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.0 4.2 -10.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Equities retraced amid weak US consumer confidence and near completion of quarter-end rebalancing

Key events in developed markets next week - ING Economics - 9/05-13/05

ING Economics ING Economics 08.05.2022 22:15
The Fed will continue with 50bp rate hikes throughout this year despite the fall in CPI figures expected next week. However, the lack of activity in the UK may put a dent in the Bank of England's plans In this article US: Inflation may be past its peak UK first quarter bounce to mask weaker performance in March We expect further rate increases from the Bank of England in June and August before the committee presses the pause button US: Inflation may be past its peak Consumer price inflation is the key number out of the US next week and it should hopefully show inflation has passed the peak with the year-on-year rate slowing from 8.5% to 8.3%, and core inflation edging down to 6.1% from 6.5%. Lower gasoline prices will be a big help, as will a drop in second-hand car prices as heralded by data from the Mannheim car auctions. However, it will be a long slow descent to get to the 2% target. China’s zero-Covid strategy will continue to pressure supply chains as production and distribution of inputs remain disrupted. Geopolitical tensions add to the problems, while the incredibly tight labour market is also putting upward pressure on wages and labour costs more broadly. In an environment of strong corporate pricing power, these costs are being passed onto customers, meaning inflation will be sticky and slow to fall. As such, the Fed will continue to hike rates swiftly with 50bp rate hikes expected in June, July and September. Consumer confidence will also be published by the University of Michigan and equity market weakness coupled with anxiety over the rising cost of living looks set to keep sentiment subdued.  UK first quarter bounce to mask weaker performance in March A strong bounce in UK activity during January should be enough to put in a quarterly growth figure just shy of 1%. But this masks less exciting performance as the quarter went on, and we expect the monthly GDP figure for March to show no growth in economic activity overall. Retail sales fell for the second consecutive month, while health output probably fell again ahead of the end of free Covid testing at the end of that month. That latter factor, combined with early signs of the cost of living squeeze, as well as an extra bank holiday, suggest we should brace for a negative second-quarter GDP figure and indeed weak activity for the rest of 2022. Increasing concerns surrounding growth likely means the Bank of England will hike fewer times than markets expect this year. We expect further increases in June and August before the committee presses the pause button. Developed Markets Economic Calendar Source: Refinitiv, ING, *GMT TagsUnited States Inflation Federal Reserve Bank Of England   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Stocks turn negative on Wall Street

Key events in EMEA next week - ING Economics - (09/05-13/05)

ING Economics ING Economics 08.05.2022 22:33
CPI readings across emerging markets will show fresh increases in prices due to ongoing supply-side shocks Despite anti-inflationary measures in place in Hungary, we expect a further acceleration in headline inflation Hungary: Further acceleration in price pressures expected The highlight of the week in Hungary is the release of the April inflation print, although we don’t think we will have too much to cheer about. Despite the anti-inflationary measures in place, we expect a further acceleration in headline inflation as supply-side shocks and the impact of a weaker forint spill over. Food, durables and services will be the main drivers of the pick up in price pressure. Core inflation is expected to show an even stronger acceleration (here the anti-inflationary measures are having a more muted impact), moving close to the double-digit territory already in April. Based on seasonal patterns, the budget balance could show some improvement in April, but we won’t rule out another downside surprise as the expenditure side remains under pressure. EMEA Economic Calendar Source: Refinitiv, ING, *GMT TagsHungary EMEA   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Chart of the Week : Housing IS the business cycle

(EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Trump the EUR, (EUR/GBP)(GBP/JPY) Pound Sterling Unlikely To Recover Anytime Soon.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 09.05.2022 09:54
Summary: Between the Russia Ukraine war and the hawkish Fed, the EUR is battling to recover. Negative global investor sentiment is causing the GBP to struggle even more. EUR continues to strengthen against the CHF. GBP/JPY currency pair. The possibility of a recession in the EU looms. Since the market opened on Monday, the US Dollar has strengthened almost a further 0.5% against the Euro. Investor confidence in the Euro has plummeted as some investors believe that the Euro will eventually end up level with the US Dollar, this comes as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues and the EU oil embargo on Russia. Investors are concerned over the possibility of a recession in the European Union. In addition the hawkish fed increasing interest rates in their attempt to fight inflation is causing investors to turn from the EUR, which is further driving the price down. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: (EUR/USD) All Eyes On The US Bureau Of Labour Statistics’ Results Due On Friday, (EUR/GBP) Bleak Economic Outlook For the UK Sends GBP Spiralling - Good Morning Forex!    EUR showing strength against the GBP Since the market opened on Monday, the EUR has strengthened against the GBP. The weakening of the pound sterling to the EUR comes after the Bank of Englands (BoEs) cautious interest rate hike in the midst of negative global investor sentiment. However, market sentiment for this currency pair is showing mixed signals. According to poundsterlinglive.com, any near future strengthening in the GBP is likely to be short lived. EUR/GBP Price Chart CHF losing more ground to the EUR On Monday the market sentiment for the EUR/CHF currency pair was reflecting a bullish signal. With the Swiss National Bank (SNB) refusing to tighten their monetary policy, the EUR has been strengthening against the CHF over the past month and will likely continue to do so. EUR/CHF Price Chart Pound Sterling attempts recovery against the JPY Despite the lack of investor confidence in the Pound Sterling, the GBP has still strengthened against the JPY on Monday, with market sentiment showing bullish signals for the future. The strengthening of the GBP has been very small. The positive price change comes in an attempted recovery after the Yen strengthened against the Pound Sterling last week amidst the BoEs announcements. GBP/JPY Price Chart   Read next: (EUR/USD) ECB Reveals The Possibility Of Interest Rate Increases In July, Negative Investor Sentiment Towards The GBP, Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish For The AUD/JPY Pair - Good Morning Forex!    Sources: poundsterlinglive.com, finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
Asian markets higher as Wall Street climbs

Is JPY Idle? British Pound To US Dollar (GBPUSD) And EUR/USD Have Decreased. "Risk-aversion lifts (USD) US dollar in Asia" | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 09.05.2022 12:54
China concerns boost the US dollar The US dollar booked some modest gains post-Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, but the dollar index resistance zone at 104.00 held once again. The dollar index finished 0.11% higher at 103.66 having traded in a wide range intra-day. The risk aversion China slowdown price action seen in equities has spilt into currency markets today, lifting the US dollar after US 10-year yields closed comfortably above 3.0% on Friday. The dollar index has risen 0.34% to 104.00 and is, once again, making a determined test of resistance here. Support at 102.50 remains intact. A close above 104.00 will signal rapid gains to 105.00 and in the bigger picture, the technical picture still says a multi-month rally to above 120.00 is possible. EUR/USD and GBP/USD have fallen by 0.35% today to 1.0508 and 1.2290. EUR/USD support at 1.0470 is in jeopardy, while GBP/USD is threatening the Friday lows of 1.2275, having closed on support at 1.2325 last week. EUR/USD rallies above 1.0650 will be challenging to sustain now, with the 45-year trendline at 1.0800 now distant. Similarly, GBP/USD will run into headwinds between 1.2400 and 1.2500. The technical picture signals much lower levels for both and a formal declaration of war from Mr Putin against Ukraine today will signal a test of 1.0300 and 1.2000 in the coming days, if not sooner. USD/JPY has crept higher over the past few sessions, rising 0.30% today to 130.95. With the Bank of Japan showing no signs of adjusting its 0.25% JGB yield cap, and US rates continuing to climb as the Fed gets busy fighting inflation, downside pressure on the yen seems inevitable. Support lies at 128.50, but a rally by USD/JPY through 131.35 sets the stage for a move to the 135.00 area. Plummeting stock markets in Asia appear to be prompting heavy outflows from Asian currencies today, with USD/CNH and USD/CNY over 0.50%, as are the USD/THB and USD/INR. Elsewhere across the region, the US dollar has booked 0.30% plus gains versus the IDR, SGD, MYR, and KRW. Chinese officials have still not made overt noises about the pace of the CNY sell-off to 6.7050, despite setting a slightly stronger fixing today. USD/INR has traded at all-time highs around 77.255 today and has fallen around 1.80% since the RBI’s last week. That does leave the RBI in somewhat of a bind, and it is an issue the Bank Indonesia and others around Asia will be feeling sooner, rather than later. In the first instance, thanks to Asia’s huge FX reserves, I expect some judicious “smoothing” to be the first strategy. Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea have already taken this route, I suspect. If international sentiment continues to fall and the US dollar continues to gain, those noises may get louder, but ultimately, regional central banks will fight a losing battle if China remains comfortable with yuan depreciation. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
(EUR/USD) - An Eye For An Eye And A Tooth For A Tooth, US Dollar To Canadian Dollar - CAD Has Weakened, DAX (GER 40) Has Slid | Orbex

(EUR/USD) - An Eye For An Eye And A Tooth For A Tooth, US Dollar To Canadian Dollar - CAD Has Weakened, DAX (GER 40) Has Slid | Orbex

Jing Ren Jing Ren 09.05.2022 13:00
EURUSD consolidates The US dollar climbed after better-than-expected NFP in April. The euro is licking its wounds after it broke March 2020’s lows near 1.0640. The price is seeking support above March 2017’s lows (1.0500). The previous rebound came to a halt at the support-turned-resistance at 1.0640. A bullish breakout could drive the bears into giving up their chips, reducing the pressure and potentially paving the way for a rally towards 1.0810. A fall below the current consolidation range (1.0480) would send the single currency to 1.0400. USDCAD bounces higher The Canadian dollar softens as April’s labour market performance fell short of expectations. A combination of a break above March’s high (1.2900) and a bullish MA cross on the daily chart confirms the market’s upbeat mood. The latest retracement found support in the major demand zone over 1.2720. A break above 1.2840 may have flushed remaining selling interests out. Last December’s high at 1.2960 is the last hurdle and its breach could open the door for an extended rally above 1.3100. GER 40 struggles for support The Dax 40 tumbles as risk appetite subsides amid global policy tightening. The index has met stiff selling pressure at the origin of the late April sell-off at 14300. A drop below the psychological level of 14000 prompted buyers to bail out, invalidating the latest rebound in the process. A bearish MA cross is another sign that an imminent sell-off could be building up. A deeper correction below 13570 would send the price action to 13300. 13820 is a fresh resistance in case of a rebound.
Rates Spark: The hawks are circling | ING Economics

ING Economics: FX Daily: Renminbi re-appraisal keeps emerging market FX on back foot

ING Economics ING Economics 09.05.2022 08:52
The dollar starts the week at marginal new highs, driven by the three key themes: i) Fed tightening ii) the war in Ukraine, and iii) the China slowdown. All three themes are showing no signs of reversing, although we should see slightly softer US inflation this week. For the near term, however, expect the dollar to continue higher and EM FX to stay pressured In this article USD: Dollar may receive most support from external events this week EUR: ECB concern against the weak euro offers little help GBP: Plenty of challenges this week CZK: Personnel changes un-nerve the koruna USD: Dollar may receive most support from external events this week We can probably all agree that there are three key themes driving the dollar at the moment. The first is the Fed's aggressive tightening prospects as it responds to core inflation above 6%. Importantly, expectations of the Fed cycle remain resolute, with a terminal rate priced near 3.25% next year. The second is the tragedy of the war in Ukraine, which has delivered a stagflationary shock most keenly felt in Europe. And the third is China's keen pursuit of its zero Covid strategy, which is now triggering a fresh round of growth downgrades and disruptions to global supply chains. What's the path for these themes this week? Let us start with Ukraine. The G7 has committed to a Russian energy embargo as soon as possible and the fact that the US is now sanctioning executives at Gazprombank - the key transit for European energy payments to Russia - looks like a sign that a full energy embargo is close at hand. This has implications for European growth. The market will also be on the lookout for any fresh messages today from the Kremlin on Russia's victory day commemoration. Any benign communication here looks unlikely. Regarding China, investors continue to re-appraise the prospects for China's economy and asset markets. The onshore renminbi has today broken through the important 6.70/USD level. As we have noted recently, USD/CNY losing its anchor has added to global FX volatility and weighed on China-correlated currencies, such as the South African rand and the Brazilian real. An extra layer here could be the reluctance of investors to hold BRICS currencies as 'sphere of influence' geographic preferences start to emerge. With industrial metals taking another leg lower, it still seems too early to call the low in the renminbi. Perhaps the best chance of dollar stability this week comes from the US April CPI data released on Wednesday. Lower gasoline and used car prices should knock headline and core CPI off its highs. Any larger than expected falls can perhaps suggest that the Fed need not be as aggressive in its hiking plans. And there are plenty of Fed speakers this week too. But some softening of the Fed tightening profile looks wishful thinking at this stage and it looks dangerous to position against further dollar strength. DXY is now trading at the highest levels since 2002. Barring a much weaker than expected US inflation figure on Wednesday, we should expect it to grind higher still. At the same time, US 10 year real yields pushing further into restrictive territory make for a challenging time for equity and credit markets - favouring risk-averse positioning.   EUR: ECB concern against the weak euro offers little help EUR/USD remains very soft and has derived little or no support from European Central Bank comments in effect that any further euro weakness is undesirable. Looking at a variety of ECB estimates on the relationship between euro FX changes and eurozone CPI, the largest estimate is somewhere in the region of a 1% fall in the trade-weighted euro adding 0.1% to headline CPI. Currently, the trade-weighted euro is down 6% year-on-year - potentially adding 0.6% to headline CPI. That would normally be large, but in today's world of supply shocks and war in Europe, is being rather dwarfed. And equally, ECB remarks that it could hike three times this year has had little effect on EUR/USD - faced with a 300bp tightening cycle from the Fed. Expect EUR/USD volatility to stay high and a break below 1.0500 could easily be seen this week towards the next major support at 1.0350. Asian FX intervention to support local currencies may also be depressing EUR/USD - as reserve managers reduce euro holdings in reserves to rebalance portfolios after dollar intervention in Asia. GBP: Plenty of challenges this week Having suffered heavily last week, this week looks to be an equally formidable one for sterling. 1Q22 GDP is released on Thursday which may start to show the slowdown emerging in March, ahead of what could be a negative quarterly reading in 2Q22. The market still prices the Bank Rate at 2.15% by the end of the year - pricing which looks vulnerable. However, we do have a hawkish MPC member, Michael Saunders, speaking at 14CET today. Tomorrow sees the Queen's speech at the opening of parliament. Political commentators have been discussing the risk that, after a poor showing in local elections, the UK government will look to push ahead with a legislative agenda that could be more combative on Northern Ireland trade. The current UK trade deal is not that much better than a no deal - yet UK government threats to tear up the N. Ireland protocol will likely weigh on a vulnerable pound. Cable looks headed to 1.20 and EUR/GBP to 0.86.  CZK: Personnel changes un-nerve the koruna EUR/CZK spiked on Friday afternoon after Czech media reported that the Czech National Bank (CNB) dove, Ales Michl, would likely be the successor to outgoing governor Jiri Rusnok whose term ends in June. Given that the CNB has been one of the most hawkish central banks in the world over the last few years, this has naturally raised much uncertainty. Volatility looks assured over the next two months as the existing hawks have one last chance to express themselves at the 22 June meeting. Yet, the Czech koruna may remain fragile on a potentially big shift in direction in the second half of this year. And it may be hard to rule out EUR/CZK heading back to the 25.80/26.00 area, where the CNB will likely threaten to intervene again to support the CZK. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Short Squeeze - What Is It? | Binance Academy

End Of Utopia!? Current Strength Of (USD) US Dollar Has Some Disadvantages... Does Fed Bear Them In Mind?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 09.05.2022 17:26
The US Dollar continues to attract capital from investors all over the world. But could this be a double-edged sword for US stocks? As capital flocks to the USD, this in turn hurts US multinationals as they need to convert their weak foreign currency profits back into USD. The USD safe-haven trade may eventually trigger a broad and deep selloff in US stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen, corporate profits for US multinationals will shrink or disappear. US Multinational $1 Billion Revenue Example: $1 billion in revenue-generating a 15% net profit with a net neutral 0% currency translation equals a $150 million profit. $1 billion in revenue-generating a 15% net profit with a negative -15% unfavorable currency translation expense equals a $0 profit! In addition, the impact of inflation on the global consumer will lead to a pullback in consumer spending which will further reduce corporate revenues and profits. The combination of the global currency dislocation along with the economic cool off will bring on a global recession. The following chart by Finviz shows the percentage the USD has appreciated against all the major global currencies year to date: Let’s review a few of these primary currencies to get a better idea of how much capital is migrating out of each of these countries and into the US dollar.       CANADIAN DOLLAR LOSING -7.29% The Canadian Dollar CAD peaked in the first week of June 1, 2021. The Canadian economy has benefited greatly from soaring energy and commodity prices, strengthening metals markets, and strong real estate prices. But despite this economic strength capital is still migrating out of the CAD and into the USD. INVESCO CURRENCY SHARES • CANADIAN DOLLAR TRUST ETF • ARCA • WEEKLY SWITZERLAND FRANC LOSING -12.53% The Switzerland Franc CHF peaked in the first week of January 6, 2021. The CHF has long been considered a safe haven for global capital during times of risk-off global market stress. The primary factor hurting the CHF is its current fiscal policy and negative interest rate of -0.75%. Therefore, the USD is still the preferred safe-haven currency due to CHF’s negative rate. Capital continues to flow out of the CHF into the USD. INVESCO CURRENCY SHARES • SWISS FRANC TRUST ETF • ARCA • WEEKLY BRITISH POUND LOSING -13.87% The British Pound GBP peaked in the first week of May 24, 2021. The GBP was the primary global reserve currency in the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century. However, that status ended when the UK almost bankrupted itself fighting World Wars I & 2. Since that time the US dollar has replaced the GBP as the primary reserve currency. The USD has a similar interest rate to the GBP and is also benefiting from its strong presence in energy and commodity markets. Therefore, the GBP is experiencing capital flows out of its currency and into the USD. INVESCO CURRENCY SHARES • BRITISH POUND TRUST ETF • ARCA • WEEKLY JAPANESE YEN LOSING -23.76% The Japanese Yen JPY peaked in the first week of March 2, 2020. The JPY has also long been considered a safe haven for global capital during times of risk-off global market stress. However, the primary factor hurting the JPY is its current fiscal policy and negative interest rate of -0.10%. Therefore, the USD is still the preferred safe-haven currency due to the JPY’s negative rate. Capital continues to flow out of the JPY into the USD. INVESCO CURRENCY SHARES • JAPANESE YEN TRUST ETF • ARCA • WEEKLY How We CAN HELP YOU Navigate Current Market Trends At TheTechnicalTraders.com, my team and I can do these things to assist you: We reduce your FOMO and manage your emotions. We have proven trading strategies for bull and bear markets. We provide quality trades you can trust. We tell you when to take profits and exit trades. We save you time with our research. We provide above-average returns/growth over the long run. We have consistent growth with low volatility/risks. We make trading and investing safer, more profitable, and educational. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens. Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy? We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Video market update for June 29, 2022  | InstaForex

FX Daily: Beware of short-lived rallies | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 10.05.2022 10:22
Some stabilisation in risk sentiment after yesterday's equity sell-off could help high-beta currencies recover some ground today. The dollar might feel some pressure, although buy-the-dip interest may emerge given the backdrop of Fed tightening, growth concerns and an unstable risk environment. The illiquid NOK may struggle to recover just yet In this article USD: Any weakness looks unlikely to last EUR: Eyes on ZEW and ECB speakers GBP: Seeking more stability NOK: Liquidity is an issue We have published our monthly FX update, for more details see: "FX Talking: Feeling the squeeze" USD: Any weakness looks unlikely to last Global equity futures are pointing to a tentative rebound in global risk assets today after a major sell-off yesterday triggered by fears of an economic slowdown at a time when central banks are tightening policy. It is not surprising to see the dollar remain strong in such an environment, retaining its safe-haven attractiveness whilst still benefiting to a certain degree from the Fed’s front-loaded tightening story. It is also quite predictable to see high-beta currencies bear most of the brunt in the current market conditions: liquidity considerations could be behind the Norwegian krone's exceptional underperformance (more in the section below), while concerns over China’s economic outlook continue to weigh on the Aussie and New Zealand dollars.  Low-yielding currencies, including the pro-cyclical euro and pound, seem to be finding some favour from the markets, although prolonged market volatility and instability in sentiment look unlikely to generate any other winners outside of the dollar or the traditional safe-havens (Japanese yen and Swiss franc). Yesterday, the Fed sounded the alarm on worsening liquidity conditions across key markets and warned of the increasing risk of a “sudden material deterioration”. Historically, tighter financial conditions tend to raise demand for dollars. It’s a quiet day in the US calendar today, with some focus only on the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey for April. There are, however, a number of Fed speakers scheduled this afternoon: the “neutral” John Williams and Tom Barkin, the dove Neel Kashkari and the hawks Loretta Mester and Christopher Waller. The impact of any policy comment might, however, be reduced as markets may wait for tomorrow’s CPI figures before any material re-adjustment in the Fed’s rate expectations. We think risk sentiment will drive almost all FX moves today. A risk-on rebound may be on the cards after yesterday’s slump, and commodity currencies may recover some ground, to the detriment of the dollar. Given the general instability in the global risk environment, some interest in buying the dip in the dollar should remain high and we do not expect any sustained USD underperformance in the near term. EUR: Eyes on ZEW and ECB speakers EUR/USD is once again attempting to find some support in the upper half of the 1.05-1.06 range. Some resilience amid yesterday’s turbulent market conditions and a potential stabilisation in risk sentiment today could combine to fuel a break above 1.0600 today. Still, the upside remains limited – in our view – given some USD buying and lingering concern about the ban on Russian oil currently under discussion in the EU. Hungary’s opposition is the key hurdle at the moment, and talks between Brussels and Budapest are set to resume today after President Orban opposed the embargo despite the EU allowing more time for Hungary to comply. On the data side, markets will focus on ZEW figures out of Germany today. Both the “expectations” and “current situation” surveys are set to show another drop in May given high energy prices and the prolonged geopolitical risk. However, the impact on EUR/USD of the latest ZEW releases has been quite negligible. There are also a few ECB speakers to keep an eye on today, as markets now appear to cement their expectations around a July hike (which is also our base case) but remain torn around the size of rate increases in 2022. One of the most hawkish members of the Governing Council, Germany’s Joachim Nagel, will speak first this afternoon, followed by the more moderate François Villeroy and Luis De Guindos. We see some modest upside risk for EUR/USD today, with any rally possibly stalling already around the 1.0650 level. GBP: Seeking more stability The pound is finally finding some stability after a rough couple of weeks. Some stabilisation in sentiment should offer additional support today, and possibly help a return to the 1.2500 mark in GBP/USD. Still, the market’s overly hawkish expectations on Bank of England tightening and uncertainty around the British economic outlook are set to keep GBP/USD capped in our view. We have a 1.2400 target for cable for the summer months, followed by a very gradual recovery in 2H22.   The UK data calendar is empty today, and there are no scheduled BoE speakers. NOK: Liquidity is an issue The Norwegian krone is finding some modest support this morning, following a general rebound in high-beta currencies and some above-consensus CPI figures in Norway, which showed an acceleration in headline inflation to 5.4% and in the core rate to 2.6%. The release endorses our view that Norges Bank will bring interest rates to 1.50% by year-end, with risks skewed towards an even faster pace of tightening. The domestic backdrop is therefore set to remain quite supportive for NOK, and so should the commodity picture – especially if the EU implements the Russian oil ban. However, NOK is the least liquid currency in the G10, which makes it exceptionally vulnerable and volatile during periods of risk sentiment turbulence. Until risk assets find some peace, despite monetary tightening and global slowdown concerns, NOK will struggle to recover. Once the dust settles, however, NOK’s set of attractive fundamentals should fuel a gradual return to the 9.50-9.70 area – which we expect to materialise in the second half of the year. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Rates Spark: The hawks are circling | ING Economics

FX Talking - Feeling the squeeze | Introduction, EUR/USD & USD/JPY | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 10.05.2022 11:47
Global financial markets have started to really feel the squeeze as the Fed pushes ahead with aggressive tightening at a time when events in Europe and China are repricing global growth prospects lower. This is clearly a bullish environment for the dollar – a currency that tends to correlate inversely with the global growth cycle. In what should be a difficult period for equity and credit markets, we would expect the dollar to stay strong this summer. After all, we are still at the stage of front-loaded Fed tightening. Doubts about the end of globalisation and the need for structurally higher interest rates should also maintain FX volatility at its recently elevated level. In practice, we think this means that EUR/USD can trade in a pretty wide range for the rest of the year – perhaps 1.00-1.10 with a downside bias over coming months. USD/JPY gains over 130 may well be harder work now, but GBP looks increasingly vulnerable given that investors still price the Bank of England’s Bank Rate well over 2.00% this year. Read next: FX Daily: Beware of short-lived rallies | ING Economics| FXMAG.COM Elsewhere in Europe, currencies in the Central and Eastern Europe region remain very volatile and under pressure. The zloty would be our preferred pick on a longer-term view, while the forint remains fragile as twin deficits return to focus. Personnel changes at the Czech National Bank have raised uncertainty around the path of the most favoured currency – the Czech koruna. Risk aversion and the China slowdown are making life hard for many commodity currencies. Most vulnerable look the likes of the Brazilian real and South African rand – with close links to China. The renminbi itself remains fragile, with USD/CNY risk to 6.80. Developed markets EUR/USD Push Me, Pull Me Current spot: 1.0522 The dollar is being pulled higher by the Fed’s decision to take some steam out of the US economy by hitting the monetary brakes hard. 75bp of tightening has been seen so far this year and another 200bp could be seen by December. US 10-year real interest rates have turned positive, in a sustainable way, for the first time since 2019. These could well rise another 75-100bp. And the dollar is being pushed higher by weakening growth prospects in Europe and China, where the war and lockdowns have added to supply chain dysfunction and hit growth prospects EUR/USD is a pro-cyclical currency, and the cycle doesn’t look good. We cannot rule out EUR/USD at parity this year. Read next: Rates Spark: Markets are doing central bankers’ job | ING Economics| FXMAG.COM USD/JPY Official concern and stretched valuations may help JPY Current spot: 131.22 The USD/JPY rally has temporarily stalled around the 130 area. Limiting the move may be two factors: i) Japan’s Ministry of Finance expressed ‘extreme concern’ with the recent spike to 131 – suggesting intervention may not be far off. ii) USD/JPY looks pretty stretched on our medium-term BEER valuation model. We think we’re now in the hard yards of the USD/JPY rally. That it is not to say that USD/JPY cannot push further were US Treasury yields to push substantially higher, but the move will be hard work. Given a tough risk environment (higher real rates, weaker growth, credit markets unprotected) JPY can outperform on crosses. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
FX forecast 06/10/2022 EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USDX, SP500 and Gold from Sebastian Seliga

(EUR/USD) Wall Street Tanks, Allowing the Euro To Slightly Recover, (EUR/GBP) Goldman Sachs Betting Against GBP, JPY Gets The Better Of The US Dollar And EUR - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.05.2022 11:58
Summary: Euro gained slightly against the USD after the poor performance of the US markets on Monday. Goldman Sachs placing their confidence in the value of the EURO. JPY gains slightly against the EUR and USD on Tuesday. Read next: (EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Trump the EUR, (EUR/GBP)(GBP/JPY) Pound Sterling Unlikely To Recover Anytime Soon.  EUR gains some ground against the USD. Markets turned around on Monday with the EUR/USD currency pair with market sentiment showing bullish signals. The Euro is gaining value despite the surging US Dollar, at the end of the trading day on Monday Wall Street has tanked with the Nasdaq down 4.29%. As investors turn away from risky assets such as forex, and move to safer investments such as treasuries, the value of the US Dollar is facing potential pressure. Investors are concerned around the Feds shrinking balance sheet as liquidity dries up. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling losing value against the Euro. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs bet the EUR will continue to gain against the GBP, as the market for the EUR/GBP currency pair continues to reflect a bullish sentiment. The European Central Bank (ECB) seems intent on raising interest rates by the summer, showing a more hawkish attitude than the Bank of England (BoE) who believe that inflation will return to normal levels on its own. This BoE attitude is causing investors to lose confidence in the Pound Sterling and causing its value to decrease. EUR/GBP Price Chart JPY receives momentary relief from the USD Although the JPY has gained on the US Dollar on Tuesday, the USD/JPY currency pair is reflecting a bullish market sentiment. The strengthening against the USD comes after the carnage the US markets saw on Monday. Whether or not this strengthening will continue is unlikely as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues their monetary easing in their attempt to boost the economy. USD/JPY Price Chart JPY markets best performer on Monday The EUR is losing ground to the JPY during the trading day on Tuesday, the EUR/JPY currency pair is reflecting a mixed market sentiment. As risk averse investors fled to safety assets given the US markets performance, the Japanese Yen was the forex markets top performer on Monday, which gave it the chance to strengthen against the EUR and the USD. EUR/JPY Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD) All Eyes On The US Bureau Of Labour Statistics’ Results Due On Friday, (EUR/GBP) Bleak Economic Outlook For the UK Sends GBP Spiralling - Good Morning Forex!  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Rates Spark: The hawks are circling | ING Economics

Despite The Year The Stock Market Has Seen, One Asset Has Succeeded: The US Dollar.

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 10.05.2022 14:37
Summary: The US Dollar's resilience in the current economic world. The future of the greenback is unknown.   Read next: (DOGE) Dogecoin and Musk - How Elon Musk Has Single Handedly Created Price Changes In This Memecoin.    Whilst almost all other assets on the stock market have lost value this year, there is one asset that has done well; the US Dollar. Since the start of the year the USD has strengthened continually against most other currencies, this is demonstrated in the graph below, where we see the gradual strengthening of the US Dollar over the past five months. This year in the stock markets has been challenging, with the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine, the adverse weather conditions all over the world, the lockdowns in China as the Chinese government works toward the zero-Covid goal, the rising inflation and prices, the concerns over a looming recession and more. Despite these factors, the US Dollar has still seen strength, this indicates the confidence that market participants have in the US economy to overcome these challenges. Where the currency will go in the future is uncertain, the volatility of the forex market is always keeping investors on their toes. The next big possible turning point is the U.S CPI report due on Wednesday, this will indicate whether the hawkish fed have been successful in their fight against rising prices and inflation. EUR/USD Price Chart   Read next: Shell (SHEL) Stock Price Soars Along With The Rest Of The Industry.    Sources: finance.yahoo.com
Broad markets rally for 2nd week. Curb your enthusiasm or consider crouching into champion commodities and FX? | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank | FXO Market Update - AUDUSD makes new lows and vols are bid

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 10.05.2022 19:27
Summary:  Risk continue to trade fairly poor while FX getting some relief from the USD bid. EURUSD and USDJPY been relative stable over the last session while AUDUSD is down from 0.7075 on the opening yesterday to 0.6920 lows today. Vols continue to trade bid and AUD vols are considerably higher after the last days move, 1 month AUDUSD up 2 vol from Friday to 15.25. Saxo Bank publishes two weekly FX Options Market Update reports covering changes and updates on the FX Options and FX Volatility market. They describe changes in FX volatility levels, risk premium and ideas how to trade based on these.FX volatility, source Saxo Bank. Vol column: At-the-money volatility for the given maturity. 1w column: Change of the at-the-money volatility for the given maturity over the last week. Source: Bloomberg, Blue: AUDUSD spot, Black: AUDUSD 1 month vol, Red: AUDUSD 1 month risk premium Risk continue to trade poor with equities another leg lower yesterday. FX trades relative stable with EURUSD holding above 1.0500 and USDJPY trading around 130.00 for the last week. Implied vol trades bid while realized vol starts to come lower in some pairs. AUDUSD traded down to 0.6920 today before data came out and showing strength of retail volumes. AUDUSD vols are turbo bid after spot has dropped from 0.7075 on the opening yesterday to 0.6920 lows today. 1 month is up from 13.25 on Friday to 15.25 now, trading as high as 15.70 earlier in Asia with spot on the lows. 1 month risk reversal has moved from 1.8 to 2.8 for puts in the same time and the risk premium has widen over the last days and currently trades at 2.3 vol. Next big data point is USD CPI tomorrow and consensus is for a move lower to 8.1 from the peak at the last reading at 8.5. If this happens we might get a relief rally in risk and USD to trade lower as we get a first indication of a turn around. The elevated vol and risk reversal makes it attractive to sell AUDUSD puts as a trade for a low CPI reading tomorrow. Sell 1 week 0.6900 AUDUSD putReceive 36 pips Alternative Sell 1 month 0.6700 AUDUSD putReceive 40 pips Spot ref.: 0.6960 Source: Saxo Bank The Top/Bottom charts shows the top 5 and bottom 5 values/changes for at-the-money vol, risk reversal (RR) and risk premium of the 45 currency pairs we are tracking. Risk premium: Implied (Imp) minus realized volatility. A positive risk premium means implied volatility trades above realized volatility, i.e. the implied volatility can be seen as “rich”. Change: The difference between current price/volatility and where it closed 1w ago. FX Options Trading: You should be aware that in purchasing Foreign Exchange Options, your potential loss will be the amount of the premium paid for the option, plus any fees or transaction charges that are applicable, should the option not achieve its strike price on the expiry date If you write an option, the risk involved is considerably higher than buying an option. You may be liable for margin to maintain your position and a loss may be sustained well in excess of the premium received. By writing an option, you accept a legal obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset if the option is exercised against you; however far the market price has moved away from the strike. If you already own the underlying asset that you have contracted to sell, your risk will be limited. If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure. Learn more about FX Options: Forex Options – An introduction Forex Options – Exotic options Forex Options - Webinars
Podcast: BoJ losing control. Geopolitical risks for Tesla

Skyrocketing US Dollar (USD) Can Be Even More Boosted! US CPI Preview: Hard core inflation to propel dollar to new highs, and two other scenarios

FXStreet News FXStreet News 10.05.2022 16:50
Economists expect core US inflation to have risen by 0.4% MoM in April, a dollar-supportive figure. A repeat of March's 0.3% gain would sink the greenback on talk of "peak inflation." Conversely, an increase of 0.5% in underlying prices would put a 75 bps rate hike firmly on the table. Is that the peak over there? That question for mountain climbers resonates with investors, who are eager to see where inflation reaches its limits. The longer the fog continues, the longer the bloodbath in markets. For the dollar, it is a boon. The greenback's next significant moves hinge on the Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) which is projected to have risen by 0.4% in April and 0.3% in March. That surprisingly low figure in the previous month fuels hopes for a lower read this time and a light at the end of the tunnel for stock traders. I will argue that this light is only a fleeting glimpse. Why it matters First, why is Core CPI more important than headline CPI? While Americans undoubtedly consume gasoline and food, these items' prices are volatile and the Federal Reserve has little impact on them. These are mostly supply-side issues driven by global forces such as Russia's war in Ukraine and OPEC+ petrol output. The dollar moves to the tune of the Fed's interest rates. What the Fed can significantly impact is demand – if it raises interest rates, consumers are motivated to save money rather than take loans to make big purchases. It has vowed to bring inflation down with higher borrowing costs – and it can afford to do so. The latest jobs report showed a tight labor market. Employment has room to climb down from the highs. Why are monthly figures more important than yearly ones in the upcoming release? In the upcoming annual calculation, April 2021 will be omitted to include changes seen in April 2022 – and that month was different. Stimulus bump: Source: FXStreet At this time last year, inflation jumped due to the one-off effects of the rapid reopening of the economy and stimulus checks, while April this year was already a normal month. Core CPI leaped by 0.9% in April 2021 and no economist expects a similar rise this time. That is why annual figures are set to fall significantly, putting the focus on monthly data. Expectations and reactions 1) Core CPI at 0.4% as expected: As I have mentioned, estimates stand at a 0.4% increase in Core CPI MoM and every tenth of a percent matters. This is the most likely scenario and is a dollar-positive one. The 0.4% estimate comes after economists had missed last month's figure by 0.2%, so they are likely more cautious this time around. On an annualized basis, it would reflect a rise of almost 5%, substantially above the Fed's 2% target. It would also be higher than the 0.3% level recorded in March and would label that figure as a one-off slow down in price rises. In other words, peak inflation would remain a mystery. At the time of writing, bond markets foresee a 95.9% chance of a 50 bps hike. That may change. Source: FXStreet For the dollar, it would extend the greenback's rise – give it a green light to move higher after the pause in recent days. This scenario has a high probability. 2) Core CPI at 0.3%, below expectations: This scenario is based on the fact that persistently high energy prices have left less money in Americans' pockets for other goods and services, alleviating price pressures. It is also backed by the slowdown in monthly Average Hourly Earnings for April– 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected – but these monthly changes are prone to revisions. March's wage figure was revised up. Nevertheless, if America records two consecutive months of 0.3% underlying inflation rises, it would strengthen the Fed's conviction of raising rates by only 50 bps in June, lowering the chances of a bigger 75 bps increase. That would hurt the dollar and this scenario has a medium probability. An even bigger downfall with 0.2% would already put "peak inflation" high on the agenda, but the chances are low. 3) Core CPI at 0.5%, above expectations: This figure beat estimates in three of the past six releases, so an upside surprise cannot be ruled out. I will stress again, that it is only a tenth of a percentage point, but one that can make a big difference in the dollar's direction. Latest Core CPI outcomes: Source: FXStreet Such an outcome could represent a catch-up in price rises after the relative slowdown or could be boosted by one-off factors. For the dollar, it would represent a considerable shot in the arm, propelling it higher. Bond vigilantes would begin circling around a 75 bps hike once again. This scenario has a lower probability. Final thoughts The Fed is focused on inflation, not employment, and every tick in underlying prices would have an outsized impact on markets. The base case scenario is of ongoing high inflation – an ongoing hawkish approach by the world's most powerful central bank – and a driver of further dollar gains.
UK economy slides into recession

(GBP/USD) British Pound Stable But Markets Uneasy, How Does It Perform Against US Dollar (USD) | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 10.05.2022 21:39
The British pound is in calm waters early in the week, as GBP/USD trades slightly above the 1.23 line. There are no major releases out of the UK or the US, which means that the pound should enjoy a quiet day. Can the BoE get it right? The British pound plunged over 2% last Thursday, a most difficult feat, considering that the Bank of England actually raised interest rates at its meeting that day. What went so wrong for the pound? The BoE dutifully raised rates at the meeting, but investors lasered in on the central bank’s downbeat message which warned of a recession, while at the same time forecasting that inflation will top 10% this year. The UK is experiencing soaring inflation at growth remains weak, which are the ingredients for stagflation. The Bank slashed its growth forecast from 1.25% to -0.25%, and the spectre of negative growth may have shaken up investors and sent the pound on its laurels. The rate hike, which in any event was relatively small at 0.25%, failed to impress the markets. BoE Governor Bailey was brutally honest when he said after the meeting that “It is a very weak projection, a very sharp slowdown”. I always appreciate when central bankers don’t hide behind gobbledygook, but the markets tend to reward good news, not honest news. There appears to be a heavy dose of scepticism as to whether the BoE can get it right, as it navigates between raising rates in order to curb inflation, while at the same time not choking economic growth. BoE Governor Bailey will need to show some achievements, such as lower inflation, in order to re-establish the central bank’s credibility, which has taken a blow in recent months. The pound has stabilized for the time being but remains vulnerable. There is plenty of risk aversion in the air, with spiralling inflation, a slowdown in China and the Ukraine war. With the Federal Reserve in hawkish mode and the US economy performing well, the risk towards GBP/USD is tilted to the downside. . GBP/USD Technical There is support at 1.2199 and 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2418 and 1.2561 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
ECB stuck in sequencing | ING Economics

The Dollar is King! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 10.05.2022 20:53
The selloff in stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin deepened on Monday. Even commodities sank and crude oil tumbled more than 8% on the back of mounting worries of a seriously tighter, and potentially ineffective Federal Reserve (Fed) policy that would, to fight back the skyrocketing inflation, pull back support aggressively enough to cause recession. Goldman says the S&P500 could fall to 3600 in case of contraction. Another worry is that, even with a significantly tighter monetary policy, the Fed may not be able to tame inflation as much as desired. This is what the inflation expectations tell us. The S&P500 dive another 3.20% yesterday, as Nasdaq tanked another 4.30%. And money doesn’t flow to ‘safer’ US sovereign bonds, as investors are rapidly unloading the US treasuries as well, given the Fed is now letting its holdings mature to reduce the size of its balance sheet which went through the roof since the 2007 subprime crisis. The US 10-year yield hit 3.20% yesterday, the highest level since November 2018. Read next: Tech Stocks Plunging!? Trade Desk Earnings Announcement Pushes Tech Giant Stock Down, Russian Ruble Strengthening and Ford Motor Co. | FXMAG.COM Gold lost more than 1.50% along with the everything rout yesterday and Bitcoin slipped shortly below the $30K level. The yen and the Swiss franc depreciated against the US dollar, as well. So, where does the money go? To the US dollar – the safest of the safe haven assets. But, there is one potential catalyzer this week, that could eventually slow down the market selloff: US inflation data due Wednesday. The consumer price index is expected to have eased to 8.1% in April from 8.5% printed a month earlier. A softer inflation is the only thing that could give hope to investors. Here is the link to the Medium blog article: https://medium.com/swissquote-education Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:25 Market selloff intensifies 3:03 Gold & Bitcoin fall along with traditional risk assets 4:29 Safe haven currencies fall, as... 4:55 ...the US dollar is the safest safe-haven 7:32 Goldman cuts its S&P500 price forecast 8:42 Soft US inflation could reverse sentiment in the short-run 9:09 ... but perhaps not for Rivian. Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
This Week: UK GDP And NATO Summit! Eurozone CPI Will Be Released On Friday! | Oanda

Commodities Prices And Problems With Supplies Are Still In Charge Considering US Inflation | US corporate pricing power set to delay inflation’s decline | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 11.05.2022 09:23
US small business optimism held steady in April after three consecutive falls. Nonetheless, businesses retain the ability to pass higher costs onto their customers and this will keep inflation sticky. Ongoing supply chain issues and rising fuel costs mean 2% inflation is a distant prospect Business sentiment holds steady, but firms still want to hire The recent US data has been mixed and that has helped to fuel fears that the economy could experience a marked slowdown, especially with the Federal Reserve firmly focused on inflation and hiking interest rates. Dollar strength is acting as a further headwind to growth by making US exports less price competitive in what is already a challenging external demand environment for companies. In this regard this morning’s National Federation of Independent Business survey for April was marginally better than expected at the headline level with optimism holding steady versus expectations of a fourth consecutive monthly drop. Nonetheless it is still the weakest level since April 2020 in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic striking. The details show a slight improvement in the proportion of small businesses expecting higher sales, but there was a little more pessimism on the outlook for the economy and whether it was a good time to expand. Set against this softer environment, firms are still struggling with worker shortages and are desperate to hire. The NFIB released the labour components last Thursday, which a net 46% having raised worker compensation during the past 3 months and 27% expecting to do so further. Inflation pressures show no sign of moderating Looking to tomorrow's inflation data the NFIB report shows a net 70% of companies raised their selling prices in the past 3 month - down from last month's 72% balance, but this is still the second highest reading in the survey's 47-year history. Moreover, a net 46% of firms plan to raise their prices further over the next three months (down from 50%, but this is still the 6th highest reading in the survey's history). This reinforces the message the despite concerns about where the economy is heading, businesses continue to have pricing power and highlights the breadth of inflation pressures in the economy. The ability to raise prices is seen across all sectors and all sizes of businesses NFIB price indicators show no sign of a turn in inflation Source: Macrobond, ING Inflation may be peaking, but 2% is a long way away Tomorrow's CPI report will probably show that inflation has passed the peak, due largely to lower used car prices, but in the absence of major improvements in supply chains and geopolitical tensions, the descent to the 2% target will be very slow and may not be achieved until the very end of 2023. However, with national gasoline prices hitting a new all-time high yesterday that will come as little comfort to most households. TagsUS Inflation Federal Reserve Business optimism   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
National Bank of Hungary Preview: A fight against scepticism | What to expect in FX and rates markets | ING Economics

Worsening (HUF) Hungarian Forint? Inflation - Can Hungarian Situation Get Any Worse? | Double-digit inflation arrives in Hungary | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 11.05.2022 09:18
The pro-inflationary impact of the war in Ukraine is finally filtering through into the data. Monetary policy might shift to a higher gear Food inflation came in at 15.6% year-on-year, showing a significant acceleration 10.3% Core inflation (YoY) ING forecast 9.7% / Previous 9.1% The impact of the war is finally appearing in inflation data April's inflation data is finally showing the impact of the Ukraine war. While the March release was a relatively pleasant surprise, with only a moderate acceleration in price pressure, inflation in April was the total opposite. There has been a sharp rise in prices: on a monthly basis, it reached a 1.6% rate. The last time we had such a strong dynamic was in 2012 after a VAT increase. The bad news is that the current tide in prices is not the result of a single measure. Roughly 50% of the consumer basket items showed double-digit year-on-year inflation in April. Against this backdrop, the 9.5% year-on-year headline inflation print is hardly surprising. Main drivers of the change in headline CPI (%) Source: HCSO, ING The details Food inflation came in at 15.6% year-on-year, showing a significant acceleration. Both unprocessed and processed items are contributing to the elevated price pressure. Despite prices of some basic food being capped, there is strong repricing everywhere: the monthly food inflation is three to four times higher than usual. This is a result of several supply-side shocks (transportation, agricultural commodities, energy, wages, etc.) and probably the weak forint. The second-most important contributor behind the sharp acceleration is the other goods and motor fuel category, which covers household goods, toiletries and pharma products and goods for recreation and education. Durables are also showing a remarkable 11.1% yearly price increase, a major contributor to inflation pressure. Rising industrial producer prices are showing up in consumer prices as demand-supply mismatch prevails. Services inflation accelerated by only 0.3ppt reaching 6.3% year-on-year in April, but monthly inflation has remained much stronger than usual, pointing toward a significant repricing pattern. Only clothing, alcoholic beverages and tobacco hold back the year-on-year inflation print. The latter is only a base effect due to an excise duty hike in tobacco products carried out in April 2021. The composition of headline inflation (ppt) Source: HCSO, ING Underlying inflation reaches double-digit territory The last point also means that, as alcoholic beverages and tobacco are not part of the core inflation basket, this base effect didn’t have a beneficial effect on core inflation. While headline inflation accelerated by 1ppt, the core reading rose by 1.2ppt. With that, double-digit underlying inflation has arrived in Hungary: the Statistical Office registered a 10.3% year-on-year core indicator. The central bank’s underlying inflation indicators, which are good predictors of medium-term developments in price changes, have also moved into the double-digit category. Headline and underlying inflation measures (% YoY) Source: HCSO, NBH, ING Further acceleration ahead Inflation in Hungary is expected to rise further in the coming months, as the economy continues to show a significant demand-supply mismatch. Labour shortage, rising wages and other supply-side shocks are increasingly spilling over into consumer prices, with companies enduring significant pricing power. Recent surveys are showing that roughly 60-80% of companies (depending on their respective sectors) are planning further price rises. In light of today’s upside surprise, headline inflation will soon reach double-digits as well. The extent and timing of the peak in price pressure highly depend on the fate of price caps, but as of now, we see the peak well above 11% in the third quarter. On average, we forecast a 10% headline reading in 2022. The central bank might raise the pace As far as monetary policy is concerned, as underlying inflation is also strengthening to an extraordinary extent (1.8% month-on-month), the National Bank of Hungary will hardly have an opportunity to think about stopping the interest rate hike cycle anytime soon. In our view, the recent data will urge the central bank to rethink its tightening path both from the perspective of its length and its peak. We see a possibility that the central bank will speed up its effective rate hiking from the recent 30bp tempo to 50bp or even 75bp in May. Against this backdrop, our 8.25% terminal rate call seems outdated and we now see the peak in base and 1-week deposit rates at above 9%. TagsNational Bank of Hungary Monetary policy Inflation Hungary CPI   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Will Fuel Prices Shock Again? Crude Oil Price Almost Hit $120! Will EV Become More Popular Shortly?

(EUR/USD) German Inflation Meets Forecasts, Pound Sterling Continues To Weaken (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), (EUR/JPY) Japanese Yen Strengthens As Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 11.05.2022 13:27
Summary: US Dollar sentiment awaits CPI report. EUR continues to strengthen against the Pound Sterling. JPY safe-haven is attractive to investors. Read next: (EUR/USD) Wall Street Tanks, Allowing the Euro To Slightly Recover, (EUR/GBP) Goldman Sachs Betting Against GBP, JPY Gets The Better Of The US Dollar And EUR - Good Morning Forex!  EUR gains slightly on the US Dollar For the trading day on wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair is reflecting mixed market signals. The Euro remained stable today after Germany announced their April inflation amount was 7.4%, which was inline with forecasts. The German announcements have investors hoping the European Central Bank (ECB) comments today will come with a more hawkish tone. The market sentiment remains mixed as investors await the U.S CPI report due later today. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP not seeing price relief against the Euro Market sentiment for this currency pair is reflecting bullish signals. Investors are tending to go net long on this currency pair as they expect the Euro to continue to strengthen. The Pound sterling value does not seem to be receiving any relief from its current price fall. Despite the Bank of Englands (BoE) 1% increase in interest rates in May, the other economic forecasts made spooked investors away from the currency. EUR/GBP Price Chart JPY safe-haven currency becomes more attractive The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. As the adverse wider economic conditions continue, investors are turning away from riskier assets, the Japanese Yen is considered a safe-haven currency, making it an attractive investment for risk averse investors. Hence, the investor sentiment is driving the price of the JPY upwards and therefore the price of this currency pair downwards. EUR/JPY Price Chart Bearish sentiment for the Pound Sterling continues The market is reflecting bearish signals for this currency pair. The USD continues to get stronger and the GBP continues to weaken in the overall market. The GBP has seen some relief against the USD on Wednesday, but the longevity of this trend is unlikely. GBP/USD Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Trump the EUR, (EUR/GBP)(GBP/JPY) Pound Sterling Unlikely To Recover Anytime Soon.  Sources: dailyfx.com, finance.yahoo.com, poundsterling.com
ING Economics - Asia Morning Bites - 29/06/22

Rising Inflation In The US Means Rising US Dollar (USD), Chinese COVID Policy Seems To Be Almost Impossible | US inflation, a make-or-break moment for investors! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 11.05.2022 11:12
It’s D-day of the week: we will see whether inflation in the US started easing in April after hitting a four-decade high in March, and if yes, by how much. A soft inflation read will come as a relief that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to tame inflation start paying off, but any disappointment could send another shock wave to the market. In the FX, the US dollar extended gains, despite the easing yields yesterday, as the risk-off flows continued supporting the greenback For now, activity on Fed funds futures give almost 90% chance for a 50-bp hike in FOMC’s June meeting; there is a lot left to be priced for a 75bp hike, if the data doesn’t please. To avoid pricing in a 75bp hike at next FOMC meeting, we must see an encouraging cooldown in inflation. In the FX, the US dollar extended gains, despite the easing yields yesterday, as the risk-off flows continued supporting the greenback.   The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $100 level on news that the Europeans softened their sanctions proposal against the Russian oil The levels against the majors like euro, yen and sterling remained flat, but the positive pressure in the dollar, combined with Turkey’s unconventional monetary policy start giving signs of exhaustion. The dollar-try advanced past the 15 mark, and the government asked institutions to make their FX operations within the most liquid trading hours. Two weeks ago, the bank had revised its regulations on banks' reserve requirements, applying them to the asset side of balance sheets in order to strengthen its macroprudential policy toolkit. The latter required reserves now pressure the overnight rates to the upside – suggesting that the unconventional policy is near limits. Energy are up and down… but mostly up. The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $100 level on news that the Europeans softened their sanctions proposal against the Russian oil, but oil is already above the $100 this morning. The upside potential is fading due to slower global growth prospects, and the Chinese lockdown. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 All eyes on US inflation data! 2:30 Market update 3:50 Strong US dollar threatens lira stability 5:50 Risks in energy markets remain tilted to the upside 6.35 Why Chinese zero Covid policy won’t work 8.07 Coinbase hit hard by crypto meltdown 8:39 Energy, still the best option for investors Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.  
ECB's Marathon. Earnings Season Is Coming! What's Up Equities?

Here Is Why US Inflation Data (CPI) Is That Important Not Only For US Dollar (USD) Its Index (DXY), But Also For Stocks, Bonds And Other Assets | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 11.05.2022 15:28
Today at 14:30 important macroeconomic data for the US economy will be published, which may also affect asset valuations outside the United States - we are talking about inflation data. In March 2022, inflation in the United States rose to 8.5 percent, which was the highest reading in 40 years. The rise in prices, in turn, may have affected several market measures. First, it forced the Fed to act, as the Federal Reserve is supposed to care about price stability and should raise interest rates if prices rise. This in turn could have influenced expectations of higher USD interest rates in the future and a strengthening of the dollar to levels last seen 20 years ago. Further expectations of rising rates could lead to an increase in bond yields, where for 10-year bonds they are in the region of 3%. The increase in bond yields, expectations of further tightening of monetary policy, and shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet, in turn, are information that could adversely affect the stock market, which in the case of the Nasdaq 100 index found itself in bear market territory. This spiral seen in many markets may continue until investors fully discount inflation, rising yields, and expectations of interest rate hikes. Interestingly, the latter had already begun to fall earlier in the week as recession fears increased. Currently, based on the federal funds rate contracts, the market is assuming a peak for hikes in mid-2023 at 3.00-3.25 percent. That's lower than the 3.5-.375 percent assumed as recently as the beginning of the month. The determinant, in turn, of whether there is a chance of full pricing for U.S. rate hikes may be where inflation will be. If this one peaks this six months and starts to fall, the market may stop assuming very aggressive Fed action. This, in turn, could bring relief to the bond market, the stock market, and also lead to the US dollar being close to its cyclical peak. Hence, today's and subsequent data on price growth in the U.S. economy could be so important. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Asian equities are mostly higher | Oanda

Inflation (US CPI) Rises, So Does US Dollar (USD)! (SPX) S&P 500 And Nasdaq Have Decreased! Is Hawkish Fed Going To Hunt Again? | FxPro |

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.05.2022 15:36
The dollar got a fresh boost, with stocks coming under renewed pressure after a new batch of US inflation data. The annual inflation rate slowed from 8.5% to 8.3% The US consumer price index rose 0.3% in April after 1.2% a month earlier. The annual inflation rate slowed from 8.5% to 8.3% but was higher than the expected 8.1% y/y. Particularly worrying for markets is the development of core inflation. The corresponding index added 0.6% m/m and 6.2% y/y last month, higher than the expected 0.4% and 6.0%, continuing the sprawl of inflation. Higher-than-expected inflation is now positive for the dollar and weighs on equities as it suggests a more robust Fed response While the annual rate of core and core inflation seems to have peaked, higher-than-expected inflation is now positive for the dollar and weighs on equities as it suggests a more robust Fed response. With inflation far from the 2% target, the Fed will be inclined to act faster (raise rates more than 50 points at a time) or stop hiking at a higher level. A significant risk demand indicator, bitcoin, has already moved out of the range with a lower boundary in January 2021 Locally, we see a tug-of-war around the dollar against the euro and yen near the lows of the past two weeks and swings against the pound and the franc near this week’s extremes. However, a significant risk demand indicator, bitcoin, has already moved out of the range with a lower boundary in January 2021. The S&P500 and Nasdaq futures were also pushed back to this week’s lows, indicating continued bearish pressure.
Here's your first look at Cyberpunk: Edgerunners! Coming to Netflix this September!

Philip Morris Buys Match, Fed Members Spills The Tea And Gold Price Nears Quite Low Values | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 11.05.2022 17:29
Summary:  Global equity markets have bounced after the US briefly hit new cycle lows yesterday. One development at the margin that has helped is the sharp decline in longer bond yields, even as a couple of Fed members were out with hawkish comments. A strong 3-year US treasury auction showed strong demand. Elsewhere, gold remains under pressure and is on life support. The data focus today swings to the US and the release of April CPI data.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - the rebound in US equities succeeded closing above the prior session’s close but met resistance above the 12,500 level in Nasdaq 100 futures. However, this morning Nasdaq 100 futures continue to rally trading around the 12,450-level attempting to break above the 12,500 level again which is needed to close Monday’s selloff range. Sentiment is still weak but a pause in the momentum in US 10-year interest rates is providing some support to US equities in the short-term. Q1 earnings results yesterday confirmed the slowdown in gaming and cryptocurrency trading activity. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI.I) and China’s CSI300 (000300.I). China’s A shares surged with ChiNext rising 4.3% and CSI300 up 2%. Electric equipment, semiconductors, EV battery, consumer electronics, wind and solar names led the charge higher. EV battery maker, CATL (300750) rose 7.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.7% and Hang Seng TECH Index gained 4.6% by mid-day.  After reporting better than market expected earnings and margin expansion, Li Auto (2015) surged 11%. The COVID related disruption to logistics and production, plus food and daily necessities stockpiling by households seems to make their impact felt on general price levels. China’s April PPI came at +8.0% YoY and CPI at +2.1% YoY, both higher than market expectations.   AUDUSD and USDCAD – the two key commodity currencies broke through key support against the US dollar this week, but so far the reaction to the development has been restrained and would likely take a further slide in risk sentiment, including in the commodity space for a notable extension lower. As the break levels remain nearby, the pairs deserve watching for the trend status and a possible reversal as well – resistance in AUDUSD is 0.7000-0.7050 and support in USDCAD comes in at 1.2900-50. Read next: Don't Worry Coffee Lovers! The Price Of Coffee Futures Falling Amidst Current Market Conditions, Crude Oil (WTI) Recovers Slightly, Palladium Prices Show Steady Downward Price Trend | FXMAG.COM USDJPY and JPY pairs – global sovereign bond yields have tumbled from their highs at the start of the week and crude oil has corrected sharply lower, two developments that support the Japanese yen, as Japan relies so heavily on energy imports and BoJ yield-curve-control policy means that the currency absorbs weakness when the domestic bond market is not “allowed” to. And yet, the JPY bounce on supportive developments has proven surprisingly muted – an opportunity or indication of further weakness to come? Watching for the reactivity in JPY pairs around the US CPI release today and 10-year US T-note auction later today as USDJPY is often one of the more sensitive currencies to US treasury yields. Gold (XAUUSD) dropped below $1850 support yesterday after several Fed officials backed multiple 50 basis point rate hikes. These comments helped drive fresh dollar strength and a continued rise in US real yields ahead of today’s US CPI print. Recent dollar strength, especially against the yuan and rupee has reduced demand from China and India, the world’s two biggest buyers of physical gold. With gold trading near a three-month low, demand for bullion backed ETFs has also ebbed with total holdings falling to a three-week low on Tuesday. Silver (XAGUSD) meanwhile slumped below previous support at $21.5, thereby adding an additional layer of weakness. From a technical perspective, the next key support level in gold is the 61.8% retracement of the March 2021 to March 2022 high at $1827. Crude oil (OILUKJUL22 & OILUSJUN22) traded higher in Asia with Brent bouncing before reaching key support below $100 per barrel. Catalyst for the move ahead of today’s US CPI print was a decline in the Covid19 infections in China providing some cautious optimism about a pickup in demand from the world’s largest importer. The cost of fuel due to lack of refinery capacity and sanctions against Russia remains very elevated with retail gasoline in the US hitting a record. The EIA meanwhile lowered its forecast for US production in 2022 and 2023 while Saudi Arabia and the UAE oil ministers warned that spare capacity is decreasing in all energy sectors. Developments that may offset any slowdown in global consumption due to lower growth and punitive high inflation. Monthly oil market reports from OPEC and IEA on Thursday. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) – The US yield curve flattened sharply yesterday as hawkish talk from a couple of Fed members (see below) kept the shorter end of the yield curve elevated, while longer yields continued their sharp retreat ahead of a tone-setting 10-year T-note auction today, with the benchmark yield there trading just below 3.00%. The 3-year notes yesterday saw the strongest demand in over a year. What is going on? Fed officials continue to back rate hikes. Fed speakers are back on the wires backing multiple 50 basis point rate hikes, even as that might mean a bumpy ride for the economy and the markets. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, in fact, also brought 75bps rate hikes back on the table for H2 if inflation doesn’t recede. US earnings recap. The big negative surprise was Coinbase reporting Q1 revenue of $1.17bn vs est. $1.48bn and a dark Q2 outlook expecting lower trading activity. Unity was in line with Q1 estimates but puts out a very low Q2 revenue figure of $290-295mn vs est. $360mn, but the fiscal year guidance is closer to consensus suggesting timing issues. Electronic Arts surprised investors given the weakness in gaming results recently guiding fiscal year 2023 (the company is not following the traditional calendar year) revenue a bit above consensus. Staying with gaming results, Roblox reported a slowdown in user activity (bookings) as so many other gaming companies have done in Q1. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Philip Morris to buy Swedish Match for SEK 106 per share. This is one of Europe’s largest transactions this year worth $16bn in an all-cash deal translating into a premium of 40%. Philip Morris is acquiring Swedish Match to get assets that are less about visual cigarettes to better cope with increasing regulation around the world against cigarettes. Declining Covid-19 cases in China helped boost sentiment across battered stock markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong overnight. The industrial metal sector has seen a sharp correction during the lockdown with the Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index currently up just 5% on the year after hitting a 39% gain on March 7. As lockdowns start to ease the focus across the sector is likely to return to tight global inventories and the prospect of a revival in demand with the Chinese government likely to initiate projects to support an economic revival. Six major mining companies who derive more than 60% of their revenue from copper have slumped between 25% and 50% from peaks achieved during the past year. What are we watching next? US CPI and 10-year T-note auction today. The 3-year T-note auction yesterday showed the strongest demand for 3-year US paper since early 2021. A 10-year T-note auction is set for today, with yields having retreated to near 3.00% from the highs earlier this week near the 2018 cycle high of 3.25%. Liquidity in the US treasury market is at its weakest levels since the pandemic-outbreak panic moment even before the Fed is set to begin reducing its balance sheet (requiring the market to absorb more treasury issuance). Reactivity in the US treasury market and the US dollar is also worth close observation today on the release of the April CPI data, expected to show the headline rising at only +0.2% MoM, but the core rising +0.4% MoM. The YoY expectations are +8.1%/+6.0% vs. +8.5%/+6.5% in March. EU gas prices jumped on Tuesday and may rise further today after Ukraine’s network operator warned Ukraine won’t accept gas at Sokhranivka, one of two cross-border points handling Russian flows, from today after occupying forces disrupted operation at the compressor station. It’s still possible for gas to be rerouted to the second entry point, Sudzha, allowing European contracts to be fulfilled, it said. How Gazprom reacts to these changes will set the tone in today’s trading. Dutch TTF benchmark gas briefly traded below its 200-day moving average support line at €89/MWh yesterday before ending the day near €100/MWH on the Ukraine news.  Earnings Watch. In Europe this morning the focus is on earnings from E.ON and Siemens Energy given the energy crisis in Europe. Genmab is also important to watch being one of Europe’s largest pure plays within the biotechnology industry. Later in the US session the focus is on Walt Disney given the latest weak results from Netflix and more reopening post the pandemic benefitting Disney’s physical entertainment assets. We will also watch Coupang, the largest e-commerce company in South Korea, given the bad Q1 results from most e-commerce companies. Today: Genmab, E.ON, Siemens Energy, Continental, Toyota, SoftBank, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Delhaize, Mowi, Swedish Match, Walt Disney, Coupang Thursday: Verbund, KBC Group, Brookfield, Fortum, Siemens, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, Atlantia, Snam, NTT, SoftBank Group, Aegon, Naturgy Energy, Motorola Solutions Friday: Deutsche Telekom, KDDI, Honda Motor, Alibaba Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0715 – ECB's Nagel to speak 0800 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 0800 – ECB’s Vasle to speak 0830 – ECB's Makhlouf to speak 0850 – ECB's Knot to speak 1220 – ECB's Schnabel to speak 1230 – US Apr. CPI 1230 – US Apr. Real Average Hourly Earnings 1600 – US Fed’s Bostic (non-voter) to speak 1800 – US 10-year T-Note auction 2301 – UK Apr. RICS House Price Balance Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher Source: Saxo Bank
Oil prices rise as demand outstrips supply

Crude Oil (USOIL) Trades Quite Lower, Australian Dollar Has Weakened Against US Dollar (AUDUSD), Gold Price Has Slid | Orbex

Jing Ren Jing Ren 12.05.2022 09:21
AUDUSD saw brief recovery The Australian dollar struggles as Beijing vows to support its Covid-hit economy. A drop below the psychological level of 0.7000 near this year’s low may have put the Aussie on a bearish trajectory in the medium-term. On the hourly chart, the RSI’s double bottom in the oversold area may cause a limited rebound. Selling interest could be expected at 0.7100 at the origin of the latest sell-off. A drop below the intermediate support at 0.6920 would extend losses towards June 2020’s lows around 0.6820. Read next: Tech Stocks Plunging!? Trade Desk Earnings Announcement Pushes Tech Giant Stock Down, Russian Ruble Strengthening and Ford Motor Co.  XAUUSD tests demand area Bullion steadied after the US CPI receded in April. The price action has found some support at the base of the February bullish breakout. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the downward momentum, a prerequisite for a reversal. 1868 is a key resistance and a breakout would confirm the demand zone and prompt sellers to cover their bets. Then 1910 is the last hurdle before sentiment would turn around. On the downside, a break below 1831 would send the precious metal to the psychological level of 1800. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100.  USOIL bounces higher WTI crude rallies as Russia retaliates by sanctioning European gas companies. A fall below the rising trendline near 106.00 has put the bulls on the defensive. The price has met bids at 98.50 and in conjunction with a bullish RSI divergence could attract more buying interest. Optimism may gain traction if buyers succeed in holding above this demand zone. A close above support-turned-resistance at 107.00 would put the bulls back in the game. Then a break above 111.00 could trigger an extended rally above 117.00.
Forex News: EURUSD, are we seeing a new breakout?

Forex News: EURUSD, are we seeing a new breakout?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 12.05.2022 09:48
Risk markets are seeing another session of aggressive selling. The selling so far is across multiple asset classes. It’s a real good old fashioned risk-off day so far. Until today the EURUSD looked to be holding up the best out of the three main risk currencies, but that’s all changed in today’s European session after sellers finally broke through support. Until today the EURUSD continued to hold its line ignoring the AUD and GBP making lower moves to the USD. 1.0490 continued to hold for buyers and even in today’s Asian session, this level remained in play. The AUD and GBP continued to hit new lower lows while the EUR held on. We started to think, is it EU rate raise expectations holding it up? That didn’t make real sense as both currencies saw rate raises recently but continued to move lower. This all changed today after sellers broke support and confirmed a breakout of the descending triangle pattern. These patterns in downtrends are normally seen as trend continuation patterns and this case is no different. While price remains below support we will continue to look for further lower prices and with the ongoing inflation worries and global recession fears, this could be a factor that maintains selling. There is talk of parity with the USD, could this be the start of the move that realise these calls? EURUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: EURUSD, are we seeing a new breakout? appeared first on Eightcap.
Asian markets higher as Wall Street climbs

(EUR/USD) USD Continues To Rally, (EUR/GBP) Pound Sterling Unlikely To See Relief, (EUR/CHF, AUD/NZD) - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 12.05.2022 11:57
Summary: The US Dollar continues to rally in the wake of the U.S CPI report. GBP is likely to see currency value weaken in the future. Market participants expect to see some strength in the EUR. Is the AUD starting to lose momentum? Read next: (EUR/USD) German Inflation Meets Forecasts, Pound Sterling Continues To Weaken (EUR/GBP, GBP/USD), (EUR/JPY) Japanese Yen Strengthens As Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets - Good Morning Forex!  The US Dollar continues to strengthen against the EUR   The market is signalling bearish market sentiment for the EUR/USD currency pair. During early trading on Thursday the US Dollar strengthened to a two-decade high after U.S inflation remained high. The U.S CPI report revealed that although inflation could likely have reached its peak, it is still high and the Fed’s current aggressive tightening of monetary policy is likely to remain aggressive. This is causing the US Dollar to strengthen even further against the EURO. EUR/USD Price Chart Pound Sterling is likely to continue to weaken. The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. However, during early trading on Thursday the price of this currency pair has lost value. Going forward it is likely that the market will see a Pound Sterling that continues to weaken in the wake of rising prices and inflation. The combination of a government unwilling to help and an inflation-weary UK public are two factors that will contribute to the further weakening of the GBP. In addition, it is expected that the Pound Sterling is likely to fall further against the Euro and USD as the economic outlook in the UK deteriorates and prompts the Bank of England (BoE) to ease the rising interest rates. EUR/GBP Price Chart EUR expected to strengthen against CHF The market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bullish signals. Investors expect the EUR to strengthen against the CHF. Market participants expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates for the first time in more than 10 years in the summer. Whilst the Swiss National Bank (SNB) remains dovish in their fight against inflation. EUR/CHF Price Chart NZD strengthens slightly against the AUD After the National Australia Bank (NAB) increased their interest rates early in May, the AUD/NZD currency pair increased in value. The momentum for this move has somewhat slowed since then. However, the pair still seems to be showing volatility. AUD/NZD Price Chart Read next: (EUR/USD) Wall Street Tanks, Allowing the Euro To Slightly Recover, (EUR/GBP) Goldman Sachs Betting Against GBP, JPY Gets The Better Of The US Dollar And EUR - Good Morning Forex!  Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
FX: British Pound (GBP) Keeps Struggling, Can EUR/GBP Go On With Recovery? Gold Price: What About XAGUSD?

Asian currencies falter

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 12.05.2022 12:15
US dollar in choppy waters The dollar index had another choppy range overnight but ultimately closed nearly unchanged once again as the G-10 currency space was content to watch from the sidelines. Recessions fears being offset by lower US yields. The dollar index closed slightly higher at 104.00. Although the index has support at 103.50, it is struggling to make a material close above 104.00, although it has moved higher to 104.07 in Asia. A daily close above 104.00 will signal rapid gains to 105.00 and in the bigger picture, the technical picture still says a multi-month rally to above 120.00 is possible. Support lies at 103.50 and 102.50. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Asian FX weakness is being exacerbated by the fall of both the onshore and offshore Chinese yuan today Most of the activity today in Asia has been in the regional currency space and USD/Asia is sharply higher. With cryptos and equities falling heavily Asian currencies seems to be suffering as part of a generalised risk-aversion wave. USD/KRW has jumped 0.80% to 1289.50, with USD/TWD and USD/PHP rising by 0.55%, and USD/INR, USD/MYR, USD/SGD, and USD/IDR between 0.25% and 0.35% higher. EUR/USD is treading water at 1.0510 this morning having failed ahead of 1.0600 overnight Asian FX weakness is being exacerbated by the fall of both the onshore and offshore Chinese yuan today. USD/CNH has risen 0.555 to 6.8000, and USD/CNY by 0.65% to 6.7650. Their next target is the 6.8500 region. Until the PBOC signals that yuan depreciation has gone far enough, Asian currencies will remain under pressure, and I fully expect to see a few regional central banks in the market selling US dollars today. Read next: Tech Stocks Plunging!? Trade Desk Earnings Announcement Pushes Tech Giant Stock Down, Russian Ruble Strengthening and Ford Motor Co.  EUR/USD is treading water at 1.0510 this morning having failed ahead of 1.0600 overnight. Any negative developments around Russian natural gas exports today are likely to spur another wave of selling, testing support at 1.0450. Notably, despite ECB officials overnight signalling rate hikes soon, EUR/USD finished lower than its open overnight. GBP/USD has fallen 0.30% to 1.2210 this morning and faces plenty of downside risk on Northern Ireland developments, emergency budgets, or poor data this afternoon. Rallies should be limited to 1.2400 with 1.2000 a real possibility in the next 36 hours. Short-dated US yields are rock solid though, limiting USD/JPY downside USD/JPY has finally eased slightly to 129.70 as long-dated US yields fell again overnight. Short-dated US yields are rock solid though, limiting USD/JPY downside. ​ Overall, the US/Japan rate differential and technical picture suggest further USD/JPY appreciation is a matter of when, and not if. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100.  AUD/USD and NZD/USD both gave up intraday gains overnight a sentiment turned sour in New York. The general risk aversion selloff sweeping Asia today has punished both currencies. AUD/USD has fallen through support at 0.7000 on its way to 0.6880, and NZD/USD dropped through 0.6400 on its way to 0.6240 in Asia. The 1.0% losses have left both oversold on short-term technical measures, but unless risk sentiment swings abruptly higher for some reason, both still look like sells on rallies, caught in a US rate hike, China slowdown, pincer move. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Rates Spark: The hawks are circling | ING Economics

China Update: In time of trouble, go with the flow of government money | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 12.05.2022 12:11
Summary:  A new round of COVID outbreaks and a stringent pandemic control policy have dampened the growth outlook in China. In anticipation of the rolling out of massive infrastructure construction by the Chinese government to boost the economy, we look at the investment opportunities in the traditional an new infrastructure space. We also consider the medium-term cases for growth in hydrogen energy and cybersecurity. China is to increase spending on infrastructureAs U.S. bond yields have moved higher than those of China and the Chinese renminbi has weakened substantially versus the U.S. dollar within a short period of time, China’s central bank’s room to manoeuvre in monetary easing is quite limited without jeopardising its goal of maintaining the relative stability of the renminbi versus the U.S. dollar, in which, energy and commodities are priced internationally.The property sector is still in dire situation and will not be making the kind of contribution to the overall economy as in the past decade.  Exports, the key growth driver last year, will very likely to be unable to do the heavy-lifting to support the economy this year.  In April, China’s export growth decelerated to 3.9% YoY in USD terms.  Adjusting it for the rise in export prices, the real rate of growth in exports was negative in April. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COMThe Chinese Government is set to increasingly rely on additional infrastructure spending to boost the economy.  At the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting on April 26, President Xi Jinping called for stepping up infrastructure construction.  It is particularly noteworthy that he emphasized the need to look beyond economic returns of infrastructure projects and to consider the projects’ benefits to national security and social returns as well.  In other words, projects that have been rejected on internal rate of return and cash flow considerations may be reconsidered and launched.  He also pledged supports to local governments in getting financing for infrastructure projects.  Moreover, Xi’s call for rolling out more infrastructure construction can provide a cover for local government officials from balancing the risks between carrying out infrastructure construction and devoting time, effort and resources to pandemic control.  Without that, the assessment of political risks and rewards might tend to incentivize local government officials to focus on pandemic control at the expense of executing infrastructure projects.  Read next: Tech Stocks Plunging!? Trade Desk Earnings Announcement Pushes Tech Giant Stock Down, Russian Ruble Strengthening and Ford Motor Co. Although local governments’ budgets have been constrained substantially by the sharp fall in land sales revenues, they can tap on funding raised from the  RMB1.2 trillion special bonds issued last year and the RMB 1.4 trillion special bonds issued thus far this year to finance infrastructure projects, in addition to other supports to come their ways from the central government. The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission’s meeting on April 26, 2022 emphasized transportation, energy, and water conservancy among the traditional infrastructure projects.On May 6, 2022, the General Offices of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee and China’s State Council released a joint guideline to boost the development and urbanization of county seats throughout China’s rural areas.  The guideline calls for building industrial bases and constructing public infrastructure and services in county seats and making medical care, education, and elderly care more accessible in rural areas surrounding county seats. New InfrastructureIn addition to traditional infrastructure, China is taking to high gear of its spending on new infrastructure.  The term “New Infrastructure” was coined in December 2018 and has been more frequently mentioned in the Chinese Government policy initiatives since the beginning of 2020 and the scope has been expanded to include industries in seven key areas: (1) 5G base stations and networks, (2) data centers, (3) Ultra High Voltage (UHV), (4) electric vehicle charging piles, (5) artificial intelligence, (6) Industrial Internet of Things, and (7) intercity rail and urban transit network.  One of the key characteristics of new infrastructure is its potential in enhancing technological innovation and improvement in productivity.  Hydrogen EnergyWhen China launched its 13th Five Year Plan in 2016, fuel cell electric vehicles was first mentioned.  In November 2020, in its New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan 2021-2035, the State Council set out initiatives to develop a wider hydrogen energy infrastructure, in addition to fuel cell applications. Since 2020, the Ministry of Finance (the MoF) has been providing financial incentives for cities that launch pilot programmes to build up hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industries and its supply chain. The MoF focuses on promoting the use of hydrogen energy medium to long-range and medium to heavy commercial vehicles and their related hydrogen infrastructure networks.  About 20 cities in China, including Beijing and Shanghai have launched such pilot programmes in using hydrogen energy vehicles.China 14th Five Year Plan in 2021 reiterated the development initiatives for hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicles.  Accordingly, in March 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration jointly released a Hydrogen Energy Medium to Long-term Plan 2021-2035 (the Plan), which affirms the strategic position of hydrogen energy in China’s green transformation and set out the development goals for the hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industries. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. The Plan aims at establish a system and environment for the development of technologies and processes for the production, storage and transportation of hydrogen energy as well as working towards clean energy hydrogen production.  It targets to reach annual deployment of 50,000 fuel cell vehicles and build comprehensive networks of hydrogen refuel stations by 2025. There are three major types of technology to manufacture hydrogen.  1) grey hydrogen: using coal, petroleum or natural gas as feedstock; 2) blue hydrogen: using conventional natural gas-based process coupled with carbon capture; 3) green hydrogen: using renewable energy to produce hydrogen from water electrolysis.  The plan targets to construct a clean energy (blue and green) hydrogen production and supply system by 2030 and envision to establish a diversified hydrogen ecosystem of manufacturing, transportation and storage of renewable energy hydrogen production by 2035.  CybersecurityChina released the Critical Data Infrastructure Security Protection Regulation in 2021.  The regulation seeks to protect critical data from hacking and malwares that could result in damage to national security, social order or public interest.  It defines the required responsibilities of the entities that hold the critical data and penalties for those fail to comply.  In particular, it requires local governments and enterprises to be responsible for monitoring, defending, and managing cybersecurity risks in their network and information systems.  The regulation also requires local governments and enterprises to set up early warning mechanism against cybersecurity threats and vulnerabilities, to carry out defence exercises and to conduct regular checks of their information systems. In addition to the regulation mentioned above, China enacted the China Data Security Law in September 2021. The new law regulates data collection, processing, and transition, beyond the traditional measures of database audits and encryption. When China rolled out its 14th Five Year Plan, it increased its cybersecurity budget by three times from the 13th Five Year Plan.  The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) guided government departments and state-own enterprises with critical data to raise their cybersecurity spending to 10% of information technology spending from 3% previously. The new regulation, law, the enlarged national budget allocation, and the MIIT’s guidance help induce growth in demand for cybersecurity.  Going with the flow of government moneyIn a turbulent global investment environment and slowing Chinese economy, we consider that it may be rewarding to go at the direction in which the Chinese government’s money is going. We expect that the Chinese authorities are on high gear to roll out infrastructure construction projects in transportation, energy and water conservancy and the new infrastructure areas in 5G, data centers, ultra-high voltage, EV charging piles, AI, industrial internet of things and inter-city rail and urban transit network.  It may be more fruitful to look for investment opportunities in these areas than the others that have less tailwinds behind them.For the medium-term, we see interesting multi-year growth potentials in the areas of hydrogen energy and cybersecurity.  Monitoring companies in these industries and relevant value chains may prove to be fruitful. Source: Saxo Bank
(USDT) Tether's Not That Stable? JPY Goes Higher, How Will It Perform Against US Dollar? | Saxo Bank

(USDT) Tether's Not That Stable? JPY Goes Higher, How Will It Perform Against US Dollar? | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 12.05.2022 15:42
Summary:  Fires are springing up everywhere and it feels like markets are under siege, but the volatility curve doesn’t even look particularly alarming yet. We focus on the areas that could continue to keep markets on tilt, including the breaking of the largest "stable" coin Tether already in evidence today after Bitcoin melted through a huge chart level yesterday, the Hong Kong dollar peg under pressure, the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark triangle, etc. In FX, the focus is on the jolt higher in the JPY even more so than the ongoing USD strength, while commodity traders have it relatively easy on the volatility front. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Read next: Saxo Bank: Markets are assessing the global growth outlook and the pace of Fed tightening| FXMAG.COM   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Read next: Philip Morris Buys Match, Fed Members Spills The Tea And Gold Price Nears Quite Low Values | Saxo Bank| FXMAG.COM   Source: Saxo Bank
FX Update: Bond rally supercharges JPY comeback rally. | Saxo Bank

FX Update: Bond rally supercharges JPY comeback rally. | Saxo Bank

John Hardy John Hardy 12.05.2022 16:01
Summary:  An extension of the rout in risky assets has continued to drive the US dollar higher against the smaller currencies and most G10 currencies as well, but the Japanese yen has not only taken on a new shine, but is even sharply stronger against the strong US dollar as global bonds have suddenly rediscovered their safe haven appeal. Elsewhere, HKD is worth watching as the HKMA intervened for the first time of this cycle to maintain the top of the USDHKD band. FX Trading focus: JPY woke up and smelled the coffee. Watching HKD as USD presses upper level of USDHKD band. The JPY upside potential has been more fully realized since yesterday on the heavy weight of falling yields in global sovereign bond, which are finally serving their function as a go-to safe haven in an environment of generally risk deleveraging. The JPY is even handily outpacing the ongoing strength in the US dollar as the yield focus dominates. And the technical damage in JPY crosses is spreading: NZDJPY and GBPJPY, the latter our focus yesterday, are already trading back into old ranges that preceded the JPY sell-off sparked by the commodity rally in the wake after Russia invaded Ukraine. Now watching AUDJPY and EURJPY for whether the feat is repeated there (key levels around 86.00 and 134.00, respectively), and CNHJPY has come down hard, with more to come. More thoughts on the most important USDJPY pair below in the chart discussion. The JPY can continue higher, but the price is far “fairer” now relative to long term bond yields. Yields must extend lower still, possibly with a helping hand from crude oi and LNG prices for a full reversal of the JPY sell-off since late February.  Chart: USDJPYYesterday, our focus in JPY crosses was on GBPJPY, which took out the 160.00 and 158.00 area supports yesterday. Today we have a look at the big one: USDJPY and what levels might trigger a more notably slide. Arguably, the first of these has already been under strain today in the 128.50 area. Regardless, the direction of the US 10-year benchmark yield is the key coincident indicator, with global energy prices a secondary indicator. The next support area below is the 127.03 pivot low followed perhaps by the 125.00 area, which was a stopping point on the way up. Source: Saxo Group Sterling suffered a sell-off to new lows in the wake of the Q1 GDP data, which showed a +8.7% growth rate, slightly below expectations, but a -0.1% month-on-month figure for March, with weak production figures to boot. The March Trade Balance data was also out and showed a toe-curling negative £23.8B trade balance, a staggering figure. Still, after a run to fresh lows against the G3 currencies, the EURGBP rally reversed rather sharply, in part as EURUSD tipped over to new lows after a couple of weeks of defending the 1.0500 support area. All traders should monitor the crypto situation as a possible aggravator of additional volatility risk across markets. The TerraUSD “stable coin” broke its parity level with the US dollar earlier this week and traded as much as 70% below par. Then yesterday, a key Bitcoin support level at 30,000 broke, possibly inspiring the instability of the Tether stable coin, which is a commonly used as a kind of parking space between going in and out of crypto trades and in and out of the crypo market itself. The Tether coin traded as much as 5% below par against the US dollar this morning before the whole crypto-complex recovered. More directly pertinent to FX, we have to watch the Hong Kong dollar (HKD), as the USD strength has taken the USDHKD exchange rate to the upper limit of its band at 7.85 and has seen the Hong Kong Monetary Authority out intervening for the first time of this cycle overnight. The HKMA will also need to copy Fed policy to avoid the worst of pressure on the HKD, even with Hong Kong’s economy in a funk. The HKD band is one of those legacy set-ups that makes little sense here almost forty years after its creation, but Hong Kong remains a key gateway into and out of the mainland Chinese economy, and China probably doesn’t want to add HKD instability to its long list of challenges. Note the Chinese demand concerns continuing to weigh on the copper price, which has punched to the lowest reaches of the range since early 2021. This in turn weighs on the Aussie, which itself has punched to new lows for the cycle. The CAD has gotten off easy so far by comparison, perhaps as oil prices remain in the higher range here – but after breaking above resistance, if USDCAD loses its tethering to the 1.3000 area it is in danger of a sharp extension higher. Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.We have noted the euro resilience of late, but signs of this crumbling today as EURUSD, EURCHF and especially EURJPY come under pressure. But the development of note here is the strong revival of the JPY momentum and outright positive trend measurement in recent days. Elsewhere, CAD looks too strong with this backdrop, although there is quite a race to the bottom of late among the weakest horses in G10 FX. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.Note EURJPY and CADJPY trying to join other JPY crosses in flipping to the negative side after the sharp JPY rally today. All G10 currency pairs save for a few GBP pairs (due to Brexit-related events) are in the highest 10% of their ATRs of the last 1000 trading days, as shown in the dark orange shading for the ATR readings. Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT) 1230 – US Apr. PPI 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 1800 – US 30-year T-Bond auction 1800 – Mexico Overnight Rate Announcement
ECB's Marathon. Earnings Season Is Coming! What's Up Equities?

Euro Against US Dollar - (EUR) Euro Drops To January 2017 Lows | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 12.05.2022 16:40
The euro has fallen close to the 1.04 level, which has held since January 2017. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0429, down 0.81% on the day. ECB hints at a rate hike in Q3 After years of monetary easing which was fueled by low inflation levels, the ECB is slowly but surely switching gears and talking openly about a rate hike. It wasn’t long ago that ECB President Christine Lagarde was dismissing high CPI numbers as “transitory” and saying that the ECB would remain out of sync with the Fed and its tighter policy. Lagarde has been forced to change her tune, however, as eurozone inflation has soared, hitting 7.5%. Germany’s inflation rate, released today, rose to 7.4%, an all-time high for a second successive month (7.3% prior). Eurozone inflation is being driven by high energy and food prices, both of which are largely due to the war in Ukraine. With no end to the conflict on the horizon, inflation could climb even higher, putting pressure on the ECB to start tightening policy. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Lagarde said on Wednesday that the ECB will end asset purchases in Q3 and follow with a rate hike “some time later”. Other ECB members have been less vague and are calling for a rate hike in July. There is a debate within the ECB whether to raise rates by 0.50%, which would bring the deposit rate to zero, or deliver a modest 0.25% increase. The ECB meeting in June should give the markets a better idea as to whether the July meeting will be live. US inflation dips, but less than expected US inflation slowed in April, but still came in stronger than expected. CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, higher than the consensus of 8.1%. This slowdown was not enough for the markets to price in “peak-US inflation”, and the dollar managed to hold its own against the major currencies. The Fed’s hawkish stance appears justified after the inflation release, as the markets are digesting the fact that if US inflation is easing, it will be at a slow pace. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100.  EUR/USD Technical 1.0557 remains a weak resistance line, followed by resistance at 1.0632 There is support at 1.0473 and 1.0398 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Trade Zone Week Ahead: Begin Your Week, with Real-time Insight from Andrew Lockwood

Trade Zone Week Ahead: Begin Your Week, with Real-time Insight from Andrew Lockwood

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 12.05.2022 14:43
Join Andrew Lockwood from ForexSignals.com, for his penultimate week on the Eightcap Trade Zone. Start the week with another live Monday morning Trading Week Ahead, as he outlines the markets to monitor from, Indices, Forex, and Commodities, and shares his potential trade ideas for the week for the coming week. JOIN THIS WEDNESDAY’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE | 18th May 2022! Would you like an update on how the markets have been performing this week? Then Join us this coming Wednesday, at 7PM AEST (10AM BST), as Andrew provides his mid-week Live Market Update. Watch him, as he looks back at his analysis from Monday, and updates you with the moves and developments that have been made. Then shares where he foresees the market heading as we approach the weekend. Register Now Do you need some help summarising the market, or want to trade along side a seasoned trader? If so, this is the perfect opportunity to get the help and support you need. As usual there will be a live Q&A at the end of the session, for you and the rest of the Trade Zone community to ask Andrew Lockwood any trade-related questions you may have. So if you are not sure about the reasons behind any of the movements in the market, or you would like to know more about a particular asset or pair? Then this is the place to come to get the answers you need. So join us on the Trade Zone this week, and as always, please remember to trade safely! The post Trade Zone Week Ahead: Begin Your Week, with Real-time Insight from Andrew Lockwood appeared first on Eightcap.
Video market update for June 29, 2022  | InstaForex

Can British Pound To US Dollar (GBP/USD) Reach 2-year-low? NZD/USD Doesn't Seem To Be Improving And US 100 Sends A Small Recovery Signal

Jing Ren Jing Ren 13.05.2022 07:46
GBPUSD to reach 2-year lows The pound remained under pressure after a slowdown in the UK’s GDP growth in Q1. A break below the lower range (1.2260) of a brief consolidation signalled a bearish continuation. Sterling is heading towards its two-year low at 1.2100. Short-covering could be expected and in conjunction with dip-buying could drive the price up momentarily. 1.2400 is the first resistance and the bulls need to lift the recent high at 1.2640 before they could regain control. Otherwise, the psychological level of 1.2000 would be the next stop. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM NZDUSD grinds lower The New Zealand dollar tumbles as traders continue to pile into safe haven assets. The sell-off accelerated after the pair sank below June 2020’s lows near 0.6400. Downbeat sentiment may attract more trend followers after a faded rebound. 0.6100 near a two-year low would be the next target. 0.6370 is a fresh resistance and the bears may sell into strength at the next bounce. The support-turned-resistance at 0.6450 sits next to the 20-day moving average and is a major level to clear before a reversal could materialise. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM US 100 may see limited bounce The Nasdaq 100 struggles to find bottom as investors continue to flee risk assets. The index sees no sign of stabilisation yet as it approaches 11500. The price action has been capped by a falling trend line from last April. An oversold RSI may prompt sellers to take profit and possibly trigger a mean reversion trade to the upper band (13000) of the line. A break above 12400 may attract enough buying interest to make this happen, but the rebound could be limited unless the bulls succeed in pushing higher. Read next: Binance Academy: Crypto Fear And Greed Index Explained| FXMAG.COM
Markets are betting the Fed has it wrong again

(GBP/USD) British Pound Dips On Soft GDP (Gross Domestic Product) | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 12.05.2022 21:09
The pound continues to lose ground and is trading at its lowest level since May 2020. GBP/USD fell below the 1.22 level earlier and hasn’t had a daily winning session since May 4th. Negative growth raises alarm bells The UK economy is struggling, a grim fact which was brought home by the Q1 GDP report earlier today. On a quarterly basis, GDP came in at 0.8%, down from 1.3% in Q4 of 2020 and shy of the 1.0% estimate. Even worse, the economy contracted in March by 0.1%, after a 0.1% gain in February. This missed the forecast of 0.0%. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM The BoE has raised rates to 1.0%, a 13-year high, but it’s clear that the BoE has fallen behind the inflation curve and is playing catch-up The negative growth reading was a result of the crushing inflation that has gripped the UK. CPI hit 7% in March and the markets are braced for a reading of around 9% from week’s April CPI release. The cost of living crisis has dampened consumer spending, a key reason for the negative reading for March GDP. The BoE has raised rates to 1.0%, a 13-year high, but it’s clear that the BoE has fallen behind the inflation curve and is playing catch-up. At last week’s policy meeting, the central bank warned that inflation could top 10% and there was the danger of a recession. The pound tumbled over 2% in response, even though the BoE increased rates by 0.25%. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The grim economic outlook does not bode well for the pound, which has tumbled 7.1% since May 1st The BoE finds itself between a rock and a hard place. It needs to raise rates in order to curb soaring inflation, but weak growth means that the higher rates could tip the economy into recession. The grim economic outlook does not bode well for the pound, which has tumbled 7.1% since May 1st. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. US inflation eases, a bit US inflation weakened in April, but not as much as the markets had expected. CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, higher than the consensus of 8.1%. This slowdown was not enough for the markets to price in “peak-US inflation”, and the dollar managed to hold its own against the major currencies. There had been talk of an “inflation peak”, but the inflation data indicates that even if inflation is falling, the pace could be much slower than the markets would like. GBP/USD Technical GBP has breached support at 1.2199 for the first time since May 2020. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
This Week: UK GDP And NATO Summit! Eurozone CPI Will Be Released On Friday! | Oanda

(NZD/USD) New Zealand dollar sinks after US CPI | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 12.05.2022 21:13
This week has gone from bad to worse for the New Zealand dollar, as NZD/USD has taken a tumble on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6248, down 0.74% on the day. The currency has dropped 2.66% this week and is trading at lows not seen since June 2020. US inflation stays hot The US inflation report for April showed that CPI eased, but the decline was much smaller than expected. US CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, above the estimate of 8.1%. This chilled any speculation of an ‘”inflation peak”, as the markets digested the fact that even if inflation is moving lower, it could do so at a very slow pace. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Fed member James Bullard said on Wednesday that 50-bps moves were his base case and this appears to be the majority view For the Fed, the high inflation reading confirms that its hawkish stance is justified, but now there are calls for policy makers to be even more aggressive in tightening the monetary screws. The Fed has signalled that it plans to deliver 50-bps increases in June and July, but the markets aren’t dismissing the possibility of a massive 75-bps hike. Fed member James Bullard said on Wednesday that 50-bps moves were his base case and this appears to be the majority view. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM Fed member Mester said on Tuesday that she supports raising rates by 50-bps Still, inflation was higher than investors or the Fed had expected, and the May inflation report, which will be released just a few days prior to the Fed’s next meeting on June 14-15th, will be critical in determining the size of the next rate hike. The Fed has embarked on a rate-hike cycle primarily because of soaring inflation, so it stands to reason that inflation will be a key factor in rate policy. Fed member Mester said on Tuesday that she supports raising rates by 50-bps at the next two meetings and then speeding up or slowing down the pace of increases based on inflation levels. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100.  At the April meeting, the RBNZ said it would act to ensure that “current high consumer price inflation does not become embedded into longer-term inflation expectations.” The RBNZ is also under pressure to tighten more aggressively after Inflation Expectations for Q2 crept upwards to 3.29% (3.27% prior). Inflation Expectations have now risen for an eighth successive month, and the RBNZ is looking to reverse this trend. At the April meeting, the RBNZ said it would act to ensure that “current high consumer price inflation does not become embedded into longer-term inflation expectations.”  With Inflation Expectations not showing any signs of easing, the RBNZ is widely expected to raise rates by 50-bps at the May 25th meeting. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD is down sharply and has broken below support at 0.6281. Below, there is support at 0.6169 There is resistance at 0.6344 and 0.6456 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Eurozone: A step in the right direction for peripheral bonds

FX Daily: Time to talk about parity | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 13.05.2022 09:55
EUR/USD is close to the 1.0340 key support, below which would see the prospect of parity become quite material. The support may hold today as risk assets correct higher. But parity in the near term wouldn't be a shock. Elsewhere, the CNB's announcement of FX intervention is supporting the koruna, although more action may be needed given dovish prospects In this article USD: Another short-lived correction? EUR: One step closer to parity GBP: Trying to stop the bleeding CZK: CNB intervenes in the FX market for the second time this year USD: Another short-lived correction? Western equity futures are in the green this morning, in line with a rebound in Asian equities overnight after a very rough week for risk sentiment. In FX, the four G10 currencies that have been most strictly correlated with risk-asset dynamics – Norway's krone, Sweden's krona, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars – are attempting a recovery this morning. The liquidity factor is inevitably a key driver of the recent market moves, as often happens during times of market distress: it is therefore not surprising to see the most illiquid G10 currency – NOK – emerging as an underperformer (-11% in a month) despite the otherwise very supportive commodity picture. Some recovery in risk appetite today could help mitigate recent losses for high-beta currencies and take some steam out of the dollar rally for now. Still, we’ll need to see a material stabilisation in sentiment in the coming days to actually reverse some of the recent FX moves. The market’s concerns around the combination of Fed tightening and expected global slowdown continue, however, to argue in favour of volatility and instability in risk assets. Ultimately, this should keep many investors interested in buying the dollar dips after a potential correction today. Today’s main focus in the US is the University of Michigan survey for May, with the main sentiment gauge expected to have inched lower while the 1Y inflation expectations index may have increased marginally to 5.5%. We’ll also hear some more post-CPI Fed comments today as the dove Neel Kashkari and the hawk Loretta Mester are both due to speak. Earlier this week, Mester seemed to re-open the door to a 75bp rate hike, a prospect which has not, however, seen much support from other FOMC members so far. EUR: One step closer to parity EUR/USD broke the key 1.0500 support yesterday as a rocky risk environment continued to favour a stronger dollar while uncertainty around the implications of the Ukraine war in Europe remains elevated. Now, the next major support to watch is the 1.0340 January 2017 low. A break below such a level would make the risk of EUR/USD hitting parity quite material. As we discussed last week in this article, we wouldn’t be shocked to see the pair at 1.00 in the near term. Indeed, after losing the 1.0500 “anchor”, EUR/USD volatility may well increase again. A break below 1.0340 may not be a story for today though as the US session could endorse the rebound in risk assets and ease some of the dollar's momentum. The eurozone calendar includes industrial production figures for May, as well as a bunch of European Central Bank speakers, including Germany’s Joachim Nagel (who recently fully endorsed a July hike), the arch-hawk Isabel Schnabel, as well as Luis Guindos and Mario Centeno. The EUR has blatantly struggled to draw any tangible benefits from the increasingly hawkish tone among ECB policymakers, which in our view boils down to the already quite aggressive tightening expectations (80-85 bp fully priced in by year-end) and lingering uncertainty around whether the ECB will be able to deliver many more hikes afterwards given the deteriorating economic outlook in the euro area. In this environment, another technical break lower in EUR/USD in the coming days is a very material risk. GBP: Trying to stop the bleeding The pound is trying to find some support around the 1.2200 level after what has been a near-freefall from the upper half of the 1.20-1.30 range. Yesterday’s weaker-than-expected growth numbers in the UK seemed to feed the narrative that the Bank of England might soon reach a peak in its tightening cycle as the British economy materially slows down. The way ahead looks likely to remain very uneven for the pound considering that markets still have a good deal of monetary tightening to price out from the GBP swap curve (which continues to imply a policy rate at 2.00% by year-end). Incidentally, with Brexit-related risks back to the fore as the UK appears close to unilaterally scrapping parts of the Northern Ireland agreement, the downside risks for GBP remain quite significant and a move to 1.2000 next week may be on the cards. At the same time, EUR/GBP may remain close to the 0.8500 mark (as the euro is facing weak momentum of its own), although we see greater potential for a return to 0.8600 rather than a drop to 0.8400 in the near term. CZK: CNB intervenes in the FX market for the second time this year The Czech National Bank announced intervention in the FX market a day after the appointment of a new governor, who will take over on 1 July. As we expected, it did so in response to the recent reassessment of market expectations and the depreciation of the koruna. As a result, yesterday it returned below 25.0 EUR/CZK, which we believe is the CNB's goal. For now, in our view, this is mainly a verbal intervention, just like after the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict, with minimal central bank activity in the market. However, this time the situation is more complicated. Markets are bracing for the arrival of a dovish board, which is taking away support for the koruna in the form of record interest rate differentials. Thus, it can be expected that the central bank will have to stay in the market longer and at a greater cost than before. By 1 July, we expect nothing to change in the CNB's current approach and the koruna to remain below 25.0 EUR/CZK. In the long run, if the new board is serious about its dovish direction, we can expect a much more frequent central bank presence in the market. Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Crypto Crash Shocked Many, The Most Sensational Bit Was The Terra (LUNA) Plunge. Is (USD) US Dollar's Rally About To End? BP Has Decreased Slightly, So Does GBP/USD. This Week Has Been Full Of Events | Swissquote

Crypto Crash Shocked Many, The Most Sensational Bit Was The Terra (LUNA) Plunge. Is (USD) US Dollar's Rally About To End? BP Has Decreased Slightly, So Does GBP/USD. This Week Has Been Full Of Events | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 13.05.2022 10:35
The dust seems to be settling in cryptocurrencies. Terra and Luna are now worth almost nothing but Bitcoin returned past the $30K, which is a sign that the confidence in the broader sector may have not been damaged as much as we first feared. European stocks opened in the green and US futures are pointing to the upside, yet volatility remains high, warnings that the wind could change direction rapidly, and the high volatility environment is more favourable for further losses than sustainable gains. European gas futures gained another 13% yesterday, and the pressure on energy prices remain clearly tilted to the upside   On the geopolitical front, the Europeans are going around their own sanctions against Russia by opening accounts with Gazprom bank to pay the Russian gas in exchange of rubles (!!), but the latest news suggest that Russia is now cutting the German gas as a retaliation to its sanctions. Of course, the Europeans have been quite bad in this poker game - they showed too openly how scared they were to lose the Russian gas that now, Russia is gaining the upper hand. European gas futures gained another 13% yesterday, and the pressure on energy prices remain clearly tilted to the upside. Saudi Aramco has surpassed Apple in terms of market capitalization this week, to become the world’s most valuable company, and the US dollar index extended gains to a fresh 20-year high. Everyone is now wondering when the dollar rally will end! Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM   Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:32 The dust settles in cryptocurrencies 2:22 Market update 3:13 Energy remains upbeat... 4:21 ... and Aramco is now the world's biggest compagny 5:00 High vol hints at further headache 6:34 Meme pop up 7:28 Dollar extends gains, raising bets that it's soon time for correction! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
Asia starts the week cautiously | Oanda

Hong Kong's And Malaysia's GDP Are Printed Today So Does US Michigan Sentiment | Asia Morning Bites | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 13.05.2022 11:33
Just in case markets need another excuse to panic - its Friday the 13th In this article Macro outlook What to look out for: US sentiment Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global: US stocks took a breather yesterday, and both the S&P500 and NASDAQ finished broadly unchanged, though it was a choppy session with big swings in both directions. The same cannot be said about the benchmark FX index, EURUSD, which plunged to new lows of 1.0380 from the low-1.05s yesterday. The plunge dragged the AUD with it, which is now 0.685, though the JPY seems to be catching a bid here, and it has dropped back to 128.50. With the exception of the JPY, Asian FX was all down against the USD yesterday with the CNY showing little sign of halting its recent slide. Treasury yields were lower again, 2s falling more than 10s. 10Y US Treasury yields are now down 36bp from their May 5 peak at 2.86%. Have US treasury yields already seen their peak for this cycle?  Discuss… really, I’d be interested in your thoughts…I’m not sure what the answer is but it must be worth considering… Data wise, it is a quiet day with the US University of Michigan consumer confidence index and associated inflation expectations measures. We’ve had Powell and Daly re-iterating the idea that the next FOMC meetings will deliver 50bp hikes, not 75bp, though this doesn’t seem to be enough to quell market anxiety anymore. Kashkari has a speaking engagement today on energy and inflation, so we’ll see if he has better luck. India: Late yesterday, India released April CPI, which came in at 7.8%YoY, a fair bit higher than the 7.4% consensus expectation. The upside surprise was partly food-related but was also supported by strength in the fuel and light component and transport (all reflecting higher energy prices) as well as clothing. Now that the RBI is in hiking mode after their 40bp hike this month, it may be worth considering if the next move will need to be 50bp? India also releases April trade data today. The market consensus is for the deficit to widen to -$20bn – for choice, I’d probably go wider still, reflecting domestic economic strength and higher-priced imported commodities. China: Beijing has three days of residents staying at home for Covid testing. Though not officially considered a “lockdown” the economic impacts will be similar. The zero-Covid policy is once again confirmed. Damage to the economy is difficult to estimate from the uncertainty of the timing and duration of lockdown. Guangdong province is experiencing floods from heavy rainfall. This may also affect the operations of some factories, adding another headwind to manufacturing and exports.  South Korea: The government has proposed its 2nd supplementary budget worth 59.4 trillion won, of which 36.4 trillion won is allocated to the central government and 70% of the budget is allocated to compensate small business owners. The size of cash transfer is at least 6 million won to 10 million won each (USD450 – 800). The remaining 23 trillion won is earmarked to transfer to local government.  No bond issuance is required as the budget is mostly financed through excess tax revenue of 53 trillion won and expenditure restructuring. This is expected to provide some relief to the bond market due to better supply conditions. However, higher-than-expected government spending could add further upside risk to the current CPI forecast of 4.6% in 2022 and trigger more aggressive monetary tightening. For now, we think that the Bank of Korea would stop at 2.25% and try not to go beyond that. What to look out for: US sentiment Malaysia GDP (13 May) Hong Kong GDP (13 May) US Michigan sentiment (13 May) TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia economics   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Stocks turn negative on Wall Street

Gold Price (XAUUSD) Nears 3-Month Low, The US Dollar (USD) Performance Agains (EUR) Euro Makes EUR/USD Decrease 2016's Lows And (BTC) Bitcoin Price Is Back Above $30K | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 13.05.2022 11:43
Gold held near three-month lows near 1,825 USD per ounce on Friday and is falling for the fourth week in a row from 1990 USD. One factor for the decline in gold prices could be the strengthening U.S. dollar, which seems to have stabilized near the 20-year high reached on Thursday. The USD strengthening may have followed the release of US consumer and producer inflation data, which seems to reinforce expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, may raise concerns about a weaker global economic outlook, helping to boost USD demand. The recent strengthening of the USD may also be related to the divergence in monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic Recall that the U.S. core CPI remained near a 40-year high of 8.3 percent in April, while the core CPI also exceeded expectations at 6.2 percent, fueling fears that high price levels may persist. Thus, markets are anticipating increases of 50 basis points at each of the next two Fed meetings in June and July. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM This could also be significant for the EUR/USD major pair, which approached the 1.0350 level this week, its lowest level since December 2016. The recent strengthening of the USD may also be related to the divergence in monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic. The Fed is moving towards aggressive hikes, while the European Central Bank may raise interest rates by 50-75 basis points in total by the end of the year. Thus, the scale of divergences seems to be very large. Bitcoin rebounded yesterday from its lowest level in almost 17 months and crossed the $30,000 mark today In addition to gold and the dollar, attention should again turn to the cryptocurrency market and towards stock market indices, where in both cases an attempt to defend against possible further declines may be underway. Bitcoin rebounded yesterday from its lowest level in almost 17 months and crossed the $30,000 mark today. Despite this, the world's most popular and widely used cryptocurrency is at this point on its way to its worst week in four months, falling more than 10 percent. Yesterday, the market additionally saw a likely panic as the tether to USD exchange rate departed at 1:1. At the apogee of fears for the collapse of the largest stablecoin, the cryptocurrency market seemed to have reached its weekly lows. Currently, USDT is trying to get back to the 1:1 exchange rate, and the rest of the market seems to be stabilizing. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FX forecast 06/10/2022 EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USDX, SP500 and Gold from Sebastian Seliga

(EUR/USD) US Dollar Continues To Rally Against The EUR, (EUR/GBP) Fears Of Eurozone Recession Rise, USD/JPY Reflecting Mixed Market Sentiment - Good Morning Forex!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.05.2022 10:12
Summary: The US Dollar strengthens as investors seek safer assets. EUR weakens against the GBP. USD/JPY showing mixed signals despite contrasting monetary policies. EUR/CHF currency pair reflecting mixed sentiment. The US Dollar attracts risk averse investors. The market sentiment for this currency pair has been showing bearish signals throughout the past week. Investor sentiment seems to be the main driver for the consistently decreasing price of the EUR/USD currency pair. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The hawkish Federal Reserve has investors turning to the greenback as a safety net against inflation and rising prices. This trend may be due for a slight change as investors expect the European Central Banks (ECB) to increase yields in the summer. EUR/USD Price Chart GBP Shows strength against the EUR Market sentiment for this currency pair is showing bearish signals. The EUR is struggling against the Pound Sterling amidst rising gas prices increasing the likelihood of sending the European Union into a recession later in 2022. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Fears of stagflation are causing investors, who are already risk-averse, to turn away from the Euro.The repricing of gas comes after Russia tightens gas supplies to the Eurozone in retaliation for sanctions. EUR/GBP Price Chart US Dollar and Japanese Yen Market sentiment is mixed for this currency pair. With the Fed hiking interest rates to fight inflation and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) pumping stimulus into the in order to keep the 10 year government bond yield anchored, the contrast is what is driving the mixed sentiment for this pair. USD/JPY Price Chart Earlier on in the trading week the EUR managed to strengthen against the CHF - EUR/CHF currency pair The market sentiment is showing mixed signals for the trading day today. Earlier on in the trading week the EUR managed to strengthen against the CHF, but the CHF has since gained some ground. Neither the ECB not the SNB have made moves to increase interest rates to fight inflation. EUR/CHF Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com, poundsterlinglive.com
Fed Announced That A Further 50bps Rise In US Interest Rates Is On the Table - Dow Jones, Bitcoin & US Dollar Rally In Response

Fed Announced That A Further 50bps Rise In US Interest Rates Is On the Table - Dow Jones, Bitcoin & US Dollar Rally In Response

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 13.05.2022 17:14
Summary: The market's reaction to the Fed's announcement for the potential for further interest rate hikes. DJI, Bitcoin and USD Dow Jones rallied on friday The Dow Jones rallied during early trading on Friday. The market seems to be attempting to recover from the poor performance of the past week. This price increase comes after the Federal Reserve Chairman announced that two more 50 bp rises in interest rates are on the table for the next two Fed meetings. The daily rise is unlikely to rule out that the Dow Jones will end the trading week on an overall loss. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM DJI Price Chart US Dollar reacts well to the Fed's announcement On Friday the US Dollar strengthened further against its major rival, the Euro. In the wake of the Feds continuing hawkish attitude, the US Dollar is continuing on its strengthening path. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM The week for the US Dollar has been volatile, earlier in the week market participants were hesitant to place their confidence in the greenback whilst they awaited the U.S CPI report. When the report exceeded market participants expectations along with the Fed’s recent announcement regarding the likelihood of further interest rate hikes the US Dollar recovered and saw further strength. Bitcoin showing signs of recovery The price of Bitcoin has also recovered today after setting its lowest level since December 2021 on Thursday. The price of Bitcoin recovers back up to over $30,000. Whether or not this rally will continue is in question, especially with the volatility the markets saw this past week. Read next: (BTC) Bitcoin’s Price Tanks Along With Equities. U.S. Stock Market Awaits CPI Report, Poor Performance From The FTSE 100. Bitcoin Price Chart Sources: investors.com, finance.yahoo.com
Chart of the Week : An ECB rate hike is imminent

How Is Euro Performing Against US Dollar (EUR/USD)? (EUR) Euro under pressure, falls below 1.04 | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 13.05.2022 16:15
The euro has stabilized on Friday, after a dreadful Thursday in which EUR/USD fell 1.26%. Russian announces sanctions The euro continues to struggle and is trading at lows last seen in January 2017. The Ukraine war has taken a bite out of the eurozone economy and sent the euro tumbling. The latest development weighing on the euro was Russia’s announcement of sanctions on some European gas importers, at a time when the EU is trying to garner support for a ban on Russian oil. Germany has said that it could manage without Russian oil, but the main stumbling block to the ban appears to be Hungary, which is very dependent on Russian energy supplies. The euro has broken through major support lines at 1.08 and 1.05, and if it breaches the 1.03 line, we could see move towards parity with the dollar. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The wobbly euro hasn’t received any support from the ECB, which has been slow to shed its dovish policy. After years of monetary easing, ECB members are becoming more vocal about the need for tighter policy, and ECB President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that QE would end in the third quarter, and a rate hike would follow “some time” after that. We could see a rate increase as early as July, although it’s unclear if the ECB will launch a rate cycle with a hike of 25 or 50 basis points. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM The US dollar has shined against the majors, buoyed by an aggressive Federal Reserve. The April US inflation report indicated that expectations of an inflation peak were premature, as CPI fell only slightly, from 8.5% to 8.3%. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 0.50% rate increases in June and July, as the Fed is focused on lowering inflation, which has hit a 40-year high. There has been some talk of a 0.75% hike, but it is far more likely that the Fed will stick with 0.50% moves, hoping that they can do the trick and wrestle down inflation. EUR/USD Technical 1.0398 has switched to resistance. It is a weak line and could see further action during the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.0473 There is support at 1.0321 and 1.0246     This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
GBP/USD analysis on June 7, 2022

(GBP) British pound’s woes continue | Oanda

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 13.05.2022 15:29
The British pound can’t seem to find its footing. GBP/USD hasn’t had a daily winning session since May 4th and closed on Thursday below the 1.22 line, for the first time since May 2020. In the European session, the pound is trading quietly at the 1.22 line. Recession fears, negative growth weighing on sterling The UK treated the markets to a data dump on Thursday, but the news was not positive. UK growth for Q2 showed a 0.8% gain, down sharply from 1.3% in Q4 of 2020 and missing the 1.0% estimate. In March, the economy contracted by 0.1%, compared to a 0.1% gain in February and shy of the estimate of 0.0%. Investors never like to hear the phrase ‘negative growth’ and the March GDP report pushed the pound lower on Thursday.  There was more bad news as Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and Business Investment all slowed down and posted negative readings. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM The UK continues to grapple with spiralling inflation, and the BoE has warned that things could get even worse. CPI hit 7%  The BoE has raised rates to 1.0%, a 13-year high, but it will take time for higher interest rates to take a bite out of inflation. At last week’s policy meeting, the central bank warned that inflation could top 10% and there was the danger of a recession. The pound tumbled over 2% in response and has fallen another 125 points since then. Risk is tilted to the downside for the pound, which has tumbled about 7% since the beginning of April. Fed’s Powell confirmed by Senate Fed Chair Powell was overwhelmingly nominated for a second term on Thursday by the US Senate. Powell appears committed to delivering 0.50% rate hikes at the next two meetings, although there has been talk of a super-size 0.75% hike in order to curb soaring inflation. US inflation finally slowed in April, but the reading of 8.3% (8.5% prior) was hardly what the markets were looking for, and talk of an “inflation peak” proved to be premature. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM GBP/USD Technical 1.2199 remains under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418 This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
UK economy slides into recession

COT Currency Speculators raised British Pound Sterling bearish bets for 10th week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:26
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data this week was the rise in bearish bets for the British pound sterling currency futures contracts. Pound speculators have raised their bearish bets for a tenth consecutive week this week and for the eleventh time out of the past twelve weeks. Over the past ten-week time-frame, pound bets have dropped by a total of -79,261 contracts, going from -337 net positions on March 1st to a total of -79,598 net positions this week. The deterioration in speculator sentiment has now pushed the pound net position to the most bearish standing of the past one hundred and thirty-seven weeks, dating back to September 24th of 2019. Pound sterling sentiment has been hit by a recent slowing economy as the UK GDP declined by 0.1 percent in March after flat growth in February. Also, weighing on the UK economy is the war in Ukraine that has sharply raised inflation in the country (and elsewhere) and which could see the UK economy with the lowest growth rate among G7 countries in 2023, according to the IMF. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (22,907 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,705 contracts), Bitcoin (315 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-9,660 contracts), Australian dollar (-13,198 contracts), Brazil real (-1,010 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,856 contracts), British pound sterling (-5,785 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,386 contracts), Canadian dollar (-14,436 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 57,556 84 34,776 86 -37,174 13 2,398 43 EUR 705,046 84 16,529 40 -43,026 64 26,497 18 GBP 264,594 80 -79,598 17 95,245 86 -