Unlike Europe, the US benefits from software and tech companies that generate billions of operating cash flow, which is used to fund the AI investment boom. Therefore, we expect borrowing in Europe to be only opportunistic. Since these firms are not taking on much new debt, the risk of overcapacity is unlikely to affect their creditors
Foreign tech companies have issued more euro-denominated debt than expected so far in 2025, driven by attractive funding costs in euro markets. This points to European strength. Our expectations for 2025 debt issuance were initially lower as US tech firms can fund their heavy capital expenditure programme from cash flows
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 6th
The week opens on the typical 2025 trade: Metals, propelled by Gold (1.90%) and Palladium (4.50%!), Cryptocurrencies, and Tech rage higher.
Hungary's September inflation numbers came in flat as expected, but we don't take long-term comfort in that. Price pressures are still far from the central bank’s target. Looking ahead, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. A warning, though: it could be a train
Retail sales added 3.5% annually when adjusted for price effects, coming in above market expectations. Households have enough resources from solid wage growth in the first half of the year. Nonetheless, sentiment will be the key when looking ahead, as the external environment becomes wobblier
The US electric vehicle market is set to see a correction following the end of federal subsidies. The policy turnaround delays the uptake – but ultimately, we don't think it will change the future or the long-term direction of travel
Spot gold extended its rally to top $4,000/oz for the first time this morning, as concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown boost demand for safe havens
We doubt markets expect the French prime minister to find a solution by Macron's imposed deadline. With little else to work with, supply pressures might be leading on Wednesday. Overall, euro rates seem well-positioned for now, but over the long term, we see the 10Y swap rate settling at a higher level
Extremely disappointing industrial data in August has just increased the risk of yet another quarter of contraction for the German econom
The oil market opened higher in the early trading session today following a modest output hike from OPEC+ for November 2025. Meanwhile, gold continued its rally to new record highs amid the prolonged US shutdown
The CIS region remains resilient amid global uncertainty, with growth outperforming expectations despite persistent inflation and external pressures. Fundamental improvements and ratings upgrades are supportive of sovereign credit in the region, while we expect further steady issuance
Unprocessed food was mainly responsible for Czech headline inflation ticking lower. Meanwhile, pricing in services remains robust, and may affect inflation expectations. One softer-than-expected inflation print is unlikely to alter the central bank's hawkish stance. We'd need to see more relaxed core inflation and disinflation in services first
Eurozone retail sales declined by 0.1% in August compared to July. This sales trend has been roughly flat since April. The worried eurozone consumer is seemingly shying away from the shopping street despite improvements in purchasing power across the bloc
Romanian consumers have recently hit the brakes, signalling increased caution. While some of the August slowdown can be attributed to pre-emptive spending ahead of tax hikes, that doesn’t fully explain the drop. We do not expect this steep decline to become the norm, but caution is likely to persist into year-end and early 2026
Despite inflation nearing double digits and real rates staying negative, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) is expected to maintain its cautious stance at its 8 October meeting, prioritising stability amid weakening consumption and uncertain growth prospects
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We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates by 25bp on 8 October, in line with consensus and pricing. Markets are betting on two more cuts after October, which looks a bit premature having not yet seen third-quarter CPI data. Dovish bets suggest downside risks for NZD are reduced into year-end
Unemployment remains near all-time lows as the economy maintains a slow pace of growth amid significant uncertainty. So, despite a small uptick in the unemployment rate, the labour market mainly shows resilience
GenAI use is ramping up fast, offering insights into how people engage with it. OpenAI recently published a deep dive into ChatGPT usage. The findings show that while users apply it to boost productivity, usage patterns vary across demographics – raising questions about who benefits the most from this technology
US rates are finding bullish signals in second-tier data as the US government shutdown continues. The second-largest Dutch pension fund is showing confidence about its transition date of 1 January 2026, which should help support the 10s30s steepening. Approval from the regulator, however, has not been explicitly communicated yet