
Eurozone Economy: Sluggish but Resilient Amid Trade Risks
The economy remains on track to see a small improvement in GDP growth in the third quarter as uncertainty fades and big shocks to trade have been avoided

The economy remains on track to see a small improvement in GDP growth in the third quarter as uncertainty fades and big shocks to trade have been avoided

You may be familiar with the hit teatime game show Pointless. And it's got me thinking. After a surprise rate cut from Sweden's Riksbank and, as the Fed kicks off its own easing cycle, will any of it make a difference? It's complicated, of course, but hopefully entertaining. Fingers on buzzers as we look ahead to another jackpot week in financial markets

Last week ended on a positive note despite fresh tariff threats on pharma, trucks and kitchen cabinets. PCE data coming in line with expectations helped keep investor mood sweet after a week of hesitation. The S&P 500 rebounded after a three-day retreat, the Stoxx 600 held above its 50-DMA, and even the pharma-heavy SMI index bounced from August lows – confirming that trade news has become usual bad news.

Volatility is back again after relatively unsurprising sessions since the past week FOMC.
It seems that the since last week, the 2025 theme of currency debasing, seeing a huge rally in metals (Gold, Silver at their yearly highs) and equities was intact after the September meeting which resulted in a cut.

The Swiss franc is sharply lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8013, up 0.78% on the day.

The British Pound has continued its recent malaise against the US Dollar after a stellar rally ahead of the US interest rate decision. Since the decision, Cable has been on a downward trend as the US Dollar has continued to gain traction.

Despite the best efforts of today’s US GDP report, which upgraded Q2 growth estimates by some margin, US equities trade lower in today’s session and look to set to continue a three-day losing streak.

The US Dollar has been rallying steadily since its pre-FOMC lows, with Powell’s not-so-dovish speech last week marking the start of a V-shape reversal from the sharp pre-meeting downfall.

Following a second quarter still heavily impacted by the introduction of new US tariffs, early data for the third quarter points to a very mild improvement, though sectoral contributions remain uneven. Today’s confidence indicators for September appear to support this view

Gold and silver prices edged higher yesterday, driven by uncertainty surrounding Russia-Nato relations following recent airspace violations, which has kept the risk premium elevated. Continued inflow into precious metal ETFs has provided further support to the complex

Upside surprises in the final US GDP numbers and jobless claims make it difficult for markets to agree on upcoming Fed cuts. A benign PCE reading on Friday won't change that, but payrolls data next week should be more pivotal. Euro rate markets are keen to follow the bearish mood as a stronger dollar reduces disinflationary

Uh oh — that US growth report yesterday was just a bit too strong for investors' liking. On the surface, strong GDP should be good news but the problem is, such strong growth doesn't support further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, and it could even boost inflation expectations on top of potential tariff-led pressures. Understandably, October rate cut expectations took a hit after the GDP release.

Euro rate markets seem to react very little to downside data surprises and geopolitical headlines, which does raise concerns over complacency. Nonetheless, this trend may persist for now as attention shifts to upcoming key calendar events, particularly US data releases

LME copper prices surge to the highest in more than a year on Freeport’s force majeure

Annual growth rates of lending to households and non-financial corporates ticked up in August, which indicates that the economy continues to experience moderate support

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its policy rate unchanged at 0%, as inflation remains very low and economic risks mount. Despite a weakening growth outlook, the SNB is avoiding further easing for now

The recovery in Germany’s housing market has continued, albeit at a slower pace. A combination of somewhat rising mortgage rates, increasing house prices, and slowing wage growth has weighed on affordability and dampened demand

The dollar is a little stronger as investors reassess the immediacy of a US slowdown and what it means for interest rates. One early highlight for Europe is the Swiss National Bank meeting. Hardly anyone expects the policy rate to be cut into negative territory, but the franc remains strong and the SNB could try tweaking rates on excess reserves

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Eyeing a new all-time high above US$3,675, supported by positive flows and positioning”, published on 15 September 2025.

The Australian dollar is coming off its best week since July, with gains of close to 1%. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6589, down 0.07% on the day.