Combine rebounding investment with continued strength in private spending and you have a recipe for stronger economic growth. October's set of data suggests that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is likely to beat the 3.7% year-on-year rate posted in the third. At the same time, inflation is declining, which paves the way for another rate cut in December
Intuitively, a deal with Russia would help euro rates higher, but falling gas futures are already pushing down the curve through lower inflation expectations. Tensions with Russia are likely to stay, which means risk sentiment should remain fragile
Same old story: Germany’s longest stagnation has now been confirmed. The economy will remain stuck until fiscal stimulus begins to take effecta
Oil prices rose yesterday, in step with a global equity rally. However, peace talks remain a crucial area of uncertainty for the market
A December Fed cut is back as a baseline scenario for markets, but the dollar has remained relatively strong. Our short-term valuation metrics point to significant risks of a USD correction, unless data prompts a hawkish repricing. Geopolitics will remain in focus, both for European FX (Ukraine peace talks) and the yen (Japan-China tensions over Taiwan)