The US government remains shut, which means the BLS will likely not release the September jobs report this Friday. Yesterday's ADP numbers, however, injected a strong dose of dovishness to keep investors going for a few days longer.
Two major themes shaped today’s market narrative: the looming US government shutdown and surprisingly (but positive) developments out of the Middle East.
On the political front, the White House unveiled a plan during a press conference, aimed at ending the Gaza conflict, stressing that “no one will be forced to leave, and Israel will not occupy Gaza”—a proposal that fueled cautious optimism that the war may be nearing its end.
Last week's US data was in general good, but today's sentiment and labour data remind us that not everyone is feeling so positive. This is a constraint on US growth prospects and suggests the Fed will retain an easing bias through the rest of the year
The RBI has held its repo rate steady at 5.5% as it balances growth and currency risks. It has sharply cut its inflation forecast, but it's cautious about INR weakness. A rate cut in December is a distinct possibility, especially if India can’t improve tariff terms with the US
The pickup in inflation to 2.2% in September was mainly due to energy effects, which will fade in the months ahead. A small undershooting of the inflation target actually seems realistic around the turn of the year. Expect the ECB to hold rates steady for now
Headline inflation in the Netherlands surged well above expectations in September. Although a swift return to a more normal pace wasn’t anticipated, today’s data illustrates just how persistent price pressures can be
US markets turned slightly bullish into quarter-end – and the government shutdown. As a result, key directional cues from official data around jobs and prices will be delayed. Eurozone preliminary inflation data is unlikely to provide markets with more clarity on the direction of travel
The US government has shut down from today as politicians failed to agree on a plan to continue funding it. This is not the first time this has happened, and it certainly won't be the last.
Headline inflation has increased to its highest level since the spring, but other German macro data published today suggests that inflation will not be the economy's biggest problem in the months ahead
After three sessions of correction in US equities, the Dow Jones is attempting a comeback.
The move comes in the shadow of what had been a heavily risk-on pre-FOMC environment, where expectations for rate cuts kept fueling a wave of optimism across markets.
With all driving factors set to remain in place, we expect inflation in Italy to continue to move within a narrow sub-2% band over the fourth quarter and confirm our forecast for average 2025 inflation at 1.7%
The US Dollar has been enjoying a renaissance of sorts this week with gains largely down to US data not being bad at all.
Looking at the data this week, the sales rate for US new homes spiked back to levels last seen in early 2022.
A week dominated by central bank communications and seasonal dynamics kept investors on edge, even as the UN General Assembly passed without major geopolitical surprises except for some memorable US President Trump quotes.
We expected CPI inflation to increase slightly in September from August amid a shallower annual decline in fuel prices – but low food prices surprisingly kept the headline figure unchanged, bolstering the argument for more rate cuts. Even so, we expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to postpone the move until November
The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its cash rate steady at 3.6%, in line with expectations. The cautious stance reflects concern over rising headline CPI inflation. As it stands, we think the probability of a rate cut at the November meeting has meaningfully diminished. The Aussie dollar remains supported
The Dutch central bank may start sending out more approvals for the transitioning of Dutch pension funds from a defined benefit to a defined contribution model this week. But with the 1 January transition date fast approaching, we may also start hearing about more delays. Meanwhile, a US government shutdown could weigh on economic sentiment
China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was generally encouraging, rebounding to a six-month high in September. Yet, the non-manufacturing PMI disappointed by falling back to neutral levels
Oil prices came under pressure as noise grows around the potential for further supply increases from OPEC+, while US government shutdown fears provide a further boost to precious metals
Sentiment in Dutch commercial services and retail cooled in September, according to fresh data from the European Commission. While the mood isn’t gloomy, it does echo our view that growth remains stuck below potential – for now