Depriving investors of US macro data, the government shutdown has brought a reprieve to the dollar. Bears have become discouraged by the lack of soft jobs evidence, and many have thrown in the towel.
The dollar revealed its vulnerability during Friday afternoon’s FX trading. The fear remains that this year's hike in US tariffs will eventually show up in hard data and once again challenge the idea of US exceptionalism. In the ongoing absence of US data, this week will be dominated by central bankers at the IMF meetings and international politics
Price pressures remained at a constant 9.9% in September, with seasonal food items offering mild relief. Services inflation continues to show resilience, and wage growth dipping below 5.0% adds further drag on demand. Our year-end projections remain 9.6% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026
China's exports continued to beat forecasts in September, but the bigger surprise was the surge of imports to hit a 17-month high. This resilience shows that China has strengthened trade with the rest of the world amid US protectionisma
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Czech headline inflation eased in September due to subdued food prices. Yet annual price growth in services and rising rents continue to pose a risk of entrenching inflation expectations given the economic upswing. That said, worrying news from the main eurozone trading partners threatens to dampen the growth outlook
August’s Italian production numbers suggest that a hoped-for timid improvement in the third quarter has not materialised. While some caveats should apply when dealing with summertime data, it would seem the onus now lies with a growth in services
Switzerland’s economy is under significant pressure due to the imposition of US tariffs on Swiss exports. As such, we have revised down our GDP growth forecasts
Henry Hub natural gas extended declines in the early trading session today following higher US natural gas inventory injections over the last week. Total gas stockpiles continue to float above the five-year average, weighing on sentiment
Markets are quite clearly rethinking popular short-USD trades, but further gains may prove harder to sustain unless markets start to price out Fed easing. With the US CPI report reportedly being published next week, we actually see a good chance an October cut will be greenlighted. Today, keep an eye on more French news and Canada’s jobs numbers
Seemingly defying a backdrop of high uncertainty even by the ECB’s own accounts, volatility in markets continues to decline. On the surface, it may look like complacency. But a perceived limited upside in rates, and a potentially bigger downside if they were to actually start falling, also gives spreads their backing
The tone of NBP President Adam Glapinski’s press conference suggested openness to another interest rate cut in November. The new inflation projection, and macroeconomic data published before the November Council meeting will be important in shaping this decision. We assess the probability of another cut in November to be well above 50%
We have revised our gold forecast higher. Again
We are increasingly confident that around €600bn of assets will transition on 1 January 2026, bringing about significant flows in longer-dated bonds and swaps. Markets are closely watching, with 10s30s steepening on headlines. Credit should benefit from the transition, with most flow funds only coming in in after 1 Januarya
In a dovish turn, the Philippines’ central Bank, the BSP, has cut rates by 25bp to 4.75%, citing softening growth and subdued inflation. Infrastructure spending concerns and corruption scandals add downside risks to our 2026 GDP outlook. The chances of a final 25bp rate cut in December have increased meaningfully
After years of unchecked budgetary slippage, Belgium’s federal government is now attempting to launch its most ambitious fiscal consolidation effort since the 1990s. The signal is clear: it’s time for action. Yet, despite the urgency, a rapid stabilisation of the debt ratio remains unlikely
Taiwan's export growth has been rather dependent on demand from the US. Fortunately, the tariff hikes in August do not appear to be having a significant impact on Taiwan's exports to the US, at least not yet
The just-released minutes of the ECB’s September meeting show a unanimous decision to keep interest rates on hold, viewing this approach as the most appropriate response to ongoing elevated uncertainty
The oil market came under some pressure this morning after reports of a potential breakthrough on the Middle East peace deal. Higher oil inventory in the US further added to the pressure on oil prices
Recent headlines from France offer cautious optimism, with markets showing unexpected resilience despite domestic turmoil and broader uncertainties like the US shutdown. In European bonds, recouping the foreign investor shares after QE is not yet complete, although it can be a source of volatility