This year's Autumn Budget could be seismic for UK markets. We think it's more likely to push gilt yields down than up, yet there are several ways – from fiscal rule changes to dubious austerity pledges – which could cause borrowing costs to spike
Concerns about the US credit market have eased further since the weekend, prompting a hawkish repricing in the Fed curve and justifying a stronger dollar. EUR/USD may slip all the way to 1.160 in the next few days, but it may require a hot US CPI print to extend the drop. Elsewhere, Japan’s new PM Takaichi was confirmed by parliament this morning
Looking for lower market rates is the simplest interpretation of the wider backdrop. However, an upward creep in US inflation and a slow firming of Eurozone purchasing managers’ indexes argue against. Something would need to break for this narrative to change
Poland's industrial output surprised positively in September, but the outlook is uncertain as some auto producers plan plant closures and production pauses by the end of 2025. Wage growth in services is easing; employment is falling amid labour shortages. Policymakers may await more data before resuming rate cuts in 2026
Our economics team expects Wednesday's UK services inflation to undershoot the BoE's projection with a 4.6% read, which is also below the 4.8% consensus. That can modestly move the needle to the dovish side in the GBP swap curve and weigh on the pound this week.
The eurozone calendar is empty until Friday’s PMI and EUR/USD moves will primarily depend on market sentiment about the US credit market. What is important to note is that EUR/USD is spot on its short-term fair value (1.167) despite the recent rally.
As Jamie Dimon warned, there may be more ‘cockroaches’ (i.e. distressed lenders) out there after two US regional banks reported credit issues last week. Markets will be looking very closely for evidence of that, and the dollar continues to face substantial downside risks. Later this week, US CPI should not come in hot enough to derail Fed easing plans
Chinese GDP slowed by less than expected in the third quarter amid the boost from external demand. With China on track to hit this year's growth target, we could see less policy urgency. But weak confidence translating to soft consumption, investment, and a worsening property price downturn still need to be addressed
In a landmark move for the proprietary trading industry in Poland, BrightFunded is proud to announce the opening of a new office in Warsaw, Poland, in October 2025. This expansion is a direct result of BrightFunded’s dedication to the growing and vibrant trading community in the region. The new office will serve as a hub for local traders, providing specialized resources, dedicated support, and a place for the prop trading community to connect.
Pricing in Czech production points to strength in domestic sectors such as services and construction, while declining prices in industry indicate that underlying fragility persists. We see potential underperformance of the eurozone as the sword of Damocles for Czech exporters. The Czech National Bank will live in a double-faceted world for some time
Expect political fragmentation to continue in the Netherlands as a government with less than four parties seems unlikely. While coming from a comfortable position in terms of economic growth and public finances, political indecision risks undermining the Netherlands’ favourable medium-term outlook
Renewable power projects have a duty to support the nature around them, but how they’re designed is crucial. Gerben Hieminga looks at how solar and wind projects can benefit biodiversity and argues that regulation, not market forces, is key to aligning climate, nature, and financial goals
Global bond yields are pushing lower amidst a broader flight to safety, with Gilts leading the way. Even now, Gilt yields still seem high, driven by a hawkish Bank of England and a material risk premium. Gilt swap spreads were more sensitive to French turmoil than to dynamics in US Treasuries or Bunds, but this should change with more budget certainty
Gold and silver hit another record high this morning, topping the all-time peak set just yesterday
A sudden surge in scrutiny of US regional banks is hitting equities and the dollar, which, incidentally, faces the negative drag of a dovish Fed repricing, some hopes for a Ukraine truce, falling oil prices, and ongoing US-China trade tensions. It’s hard to pick a bottom in the ongoing USD sell-off, which may well run a bit further from her
China's discussion of its 15th Five-Year Plan will be a major focus, along with GDP and property price data and a loan-prime-rate decision. The Bank of Korea is expected to leave rates unchanged, while markets will get key data from Japan and Taiwan
FinancialMarkets.media proudly announces that its Chairman & Founder, Francesc Riverola, has been awarded an Honorary Membership from the Society of Technical Analysts Limited (STA), one of the most prestigious institutions in the world of Technical Analysis.
Latam FX continues to perform well, buoyed by high yields and some firmer prices for key exports. While we are not expecting major setbacks here, we're not looking for major advances either. Here it looks like Brazil is testing the waters on fiscal policy ahead of next year's election and the Mexican peso could still be derailed by USMCA renegotiation
Some of the best performing currencies in the CEE region have started to hand back some of their gains as markets question whether central banks will have to turn more dovish. That's particularly been the case in Hungary. However, our call is that rate cuts are delayed, and the forint can continue to enjoy carry trade interest. CZK and ZAR should also do well
The dollar is trading towards the top of its trading range, buoyed by the lack of US data and some challenges faced by the euro and the yen. Yet US consumers remain fearful of their employment prospects, and we doubt the Fed will stray from its path toward two more rate cuts this year. Lower US hedging costs and seasonal trends suggest recent $ strength won't last