German Economy Braces for Prolonged Stagnation Despite Fiscal Stimulus
The Ifo index increased in October on the back of improving expectations, while the current assessment worsened once again
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EM Appetite Challenges the Dollar as US-China Optimism Builds
Global risk assets are bid on the view that this week's Trump-Xi meeting will be a positive one. A 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday should also help the tone, but that is very much priced in. With the People's Bank of China continuing to fix USD/CNY lower, we favour a mild downside bias to the dollar at the start of the week
Eurozone Credit Growth Steadies as Money Supply Eases Ahead of ECB
Bank lending to the eurozone private sector remained unchanged in September; the pace remains modest. This doesn’t provide much direction on monetary transmission, which so far doesn’t seem to be hindered by large macro uncertainty
Euro Awaits Ifo Signal as Yen and CEE Currencies Track Risk Sentiment
Trade Thaw Ignites Commodity Markets: Energy Rebounds, Agriculture Rallies
Positive developments in US-China trade talks over the weekend provided a boost to risk assets, including large parts of the commodities complex
Our first look at the next Five-Year Plan shows China staying the course
The communiqué following China's Fourth Plenum has given markets a first look at the priorities for the 15th Five-Year Plan. The key focus for policymakers looks little changed, as modernisation, innovation, self-sufficiency, and boosting domestic demand feature prominently
BoC Set for October Cut Despite Strong Data as Economic Outlook Remains Weak
Lingering trade-induced uncertainty continues to weigh on Canadian activity and carries risks of broader jobs market deterioration. We expect the BoC to overlook higher-than-expected jobs and inflation data and cut by 25bp on 29 October. The door may be left open to more easing, and CAD should remain vulnerable against most of the G10
UK Budget and BoE Decision in Focus: Navigating Tax Hikes and Rate Cut Uncertainty
Join us on 5 November, the day before the Bank of England's crunch November meeting, for a live discussion of Britain's economic prospects, the Autumn Budget and the outlook for UK assets. Sign up today
USD Shows Fatigue as FX Markets Await CPI, Euro and CEE Currencies See Limited Moves
US sanctions on Russian oil producers triggered a rally in crude. So far, however, that has only erased October’s losses, and it remains unclear whether Russian oil flows will be affected enough to justify structurally higher prices, and, by extension, a stronger USD. So far, the FX impact has been small, partly due to a cautious stance ahead of US CPI
Dutch Pension Reforms Could Increase Long-End Volatility, but Market Stress Remains Limited
The Dutch central bank acknowledges risks to interest rates linked to the 1 January 2026 transition of Dutch pension funds, but also sees mitigants to prevent market stress. The 10s30s has more room to steepen from a structural perspective, but we don't fully discount the probability of seeing some flattening in January
Bank of Korea Likely to Resume Rate Cuts in Early 2026 Amid Housing Market Uncertainty
The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark rate steady at 2.5%, signaling a shift toward a less dovish policy stance. For the second consecutive meeting, one member dissented, while a growing number prioritised financial market stability over economic growth
US Sanctions Shake Oil Markets: Rosneft and Lukoil in the Crosshairs
Oil prices are trading firmer this morning after the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoila
Hungary’s Labour Market Shows Rising Unemployment Amid Persistent Tightness and Wage Pressures
Labour market data remains at an acceptable level for now, but the outlook is uncertain. As spooky season begins, companies face a haunting dilemma: raise prices further or begin layoffs?
Retail Sales Miss Expectations Despite Low Base, but Solid Q3 Momentum Supports GDP Outlook
Although September retail sales growth fell short of expectations due to weak food sales, the sector still performed strongly thanks to robust durable goods demand. When combined with solid industrial production and construction data, along with anticipated strength in services, this supports our projection of 4%YoY growth for 3Q25
UK Inflation Peaks as Food and Services Ease, Reopening the Door to a December BoE Rate Cut
Both food and services inflation are undershooting the Bank of England's forecasts, and together with softer wage growth, that brings another 2025 rate cut firmly back into play. Everything now depends on the details of the November Autumn Budget
A Meeting to Skip: ECB Poised for a Quiet Pause Ahead of December Decisions
Next week’s ECB meeting is unlikely to leave a lasting impact. The December meeting is the one to watch as chances of a rate cut are still higher than markets currently anticipate
Japan’s Trade Rebound and BoJ Watch: Exports Strengthen Amid US Tariff Headwinds
Japanese exports recovered mostly in line with market expectations. We cautiously expect US-bound exports to stabilise after the recent trade deal. Stronger-than-expected imports indicate continued investment in AI and semiconductors, supporting growth in the fourth quarter
Metals in Motion: Copper’s Momentum, Aluminium’s Constraints, Tariff Uncertainty and Gold’s Volatile Rally
LME Week, the biggest gathering of the metals industry, brought a cautiously upbeat tone to metals markets this year. While macro uncertainty, particularly around China-US trade negotiations, continues to cloud near-term demand, participants broadly see a turning point as physical tightness and supply disruptions come into focus
Market Rotation Hits Commodities: Precious Metals Slump, Oil Steadies on SPR Plans, Sugar Slides on Supply Outlook
Spot gold prices sold off aggressively yesterday as participants took profits in a market that has been extremely overbought
ront-End Stagnation and Long-End Shifts: Diverging Dynamics in Euro and US Yield Curves
The current risks are towards more ECB easing, but because medium-term risks are tilted to the upside, we think markets will remain firmly anchored around a 1.75% landing zone. In the US, the ultra front end has a tight feel to it, while longer tenor yields have a more loose tendency. We identify some technical factors driving this