Henry hub natural gas extended declines yesterday after the US reported above-average natural gas inventory injections over the last week. Total gas stockpiles remain above the five-year average, weighing on sentiment
Jobless claims dropped back sharply yesterday, a rare positive development for the US jobs market and the dollar. But we still think the greenback is due to give up its post-Fed gains in the near term. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan surprised with a hawkish vote split as it held rates unchanged today, raising the chances of an October hike and JPY outperformance
August US nominal retail sales rose more strongly than anticipated, but volume growth remains range-bound with consumers wary of potential tariff-induced price hikes and broadening evidence of a cooling jobs market
It's tough to envisage a hawkish 25bp cut, else why do it in the first place. A dovish 25bp cut is far more likely. If Chair Powell wants to be hawkish, then better to deliver a 50bp cut. Long rates are in a mood to go along with the "rate-cutting ride" and test lower too. But rate cuts plus (likely) rising inflation present an issue for long dates to deal with ahead
US equities broke one more record before the widely awaited Federal Reserve (Fed) decision, while the Stoxx 600 fell more than 1% as rate-sensitive sectors including banks and insurers led the index lower.
Inflation is more or less at a peak, though it's likely to stay in the 3.5-4% area for the rest of this year. Rising food inflation is a particular bugbear of the Bank of England. Yet we aren't in the camp that thinks rate cuts are over, given the prospect of further progress in services inflation and wage growth
All eyes are on tonight's Fed meeting, where a 25bp rate cut is widely expected. The dollar has been selling off ahead of this event, but there are a few risks. For example, we could see short-dated US rates back up a little and the dollar get a brief bid if the Fed Dot Plots continues to show just 50bp of rate cuts this year compared to the 70bp now priced
The oil market is under pressure in the European morning, even as the American Petroleum Institute (API) reports a drop in US crude oil inventory
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Another day, another record high for the S&P 500 on optimism that:
The dollar is drifting lower ahead of tomorrow evening's FOMC meeting. Even the market's favourite high-yield currency play, the Turkish lira, got a lift following news of a delay in a political event risk. Today's focus will be on US retail sales and perhaps Canadian CPI as well, ahead of expected rate cuts in the US and Canada tomorrow
Private sector employment fell further in August, which should help take wage growth below 4% by year-end. That keeps the door open to further Bank of England easing, though our call for a November rate cut hangs in the
Risk sentiment remains resilient and largely unaffected by factors such as French politics. While this should support EUR rates grinding higher and spreads – outside of France – still tighter, plenty of risks are looming. US rates are another directional driver, and today US data is in focus ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision
Gold continues to rally to fresh record highs amid growing expectations that the US Fed will cut rates this week. Here's what's happening in the commodity space
Amid signs of economic recovery, the decline in temporary staffing hours in the Netherlands is expected to come to a halt this year. However, an upward trend will not materialise until 2026. Market conditions remain challenging, shaped by structural labour shortages and stricter regulation. In response, the sector needs to make a strategic shift
Regional sustainable finance markets outlooks show contrasts this year. Strong momentum is observed in Asia Pacific (APAC) and Eastern Europe, while policy swings and uncertainty have led to challenges in the Americas and the rest of Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA)
Wage growth came in as expected in July. It seems likely that it will remain stable at this level in the near future. However, households still prefer to save rather than spend due to weak consumer confidence
The week kicks off on a slightly positive note after last week's softer-than-expected US inflation data paved the way for a rate cut on Wednesday. Combined with signs of a rapidly deteriorating US jobs market, investors now expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin a series of cuts this week.
Oil prices extended last week’s gains this morning following the latest attacks by Ukraine on refineries and ports in Russia
The eurozone's trade balance edged up slightly in July, driven mainly by a drop in imports, while exports also declined modestly. Excluding the energy crisis period, this marks one of the smallest trade surpluses in the past decade