After a couple of months of stability, we look for the dollar bear trend to resume into year-end. EUR/USD should be trading up at 1.20 by that stage after three Fed rate cuts. Even though valuations look stretched in equity and credit markets, we still prefer a benign decline in the dollar and a supported environment for risk assets and activity currencies
In a quiet start to the week for FX markets, EUR/USD is trading steady despite French debt being downgraded on Friday night by Fitch. That downgrade has already been priced into French debt markets, and instead, Wednesday's FOMC meeting is set to be the dominant event for EUR/USD this week. We also have central bank meetings in the UK, Japan, Canada and Norway
Political instability and missed fiscal targets are raising doubts about France’s ability to meet EU rules and avoid further rating downgrades. Here's what's happening and how the markets are reacting
The Polish Statistical Office has revised August’s year-on-year CPI inflation upward to 2.9%, from the initial flash estimate of 2.8%. However, we estimate that core inflation eased to 3.1% YoY, maintaining its downward trajectory. We expect policymakers to deliver one more 25bp rate cut this year, in November
Valetax made a significant mark at Money Expo India 2025 as a Diamond Sponsor, joining India's premier financial gathering on 23–24 August at Mumbai's Jio World Convention Centre. The event served as a strategic cornerstone to cultivate meaningful partnerships, decode regional market opportunities, and underscore its unwavering commitment to India's financial ecosystem as a key pillar of its Asian market expansion.
Inflation in the eurozone ticked up from 2% to 2.1% in August on the back of slowing energy price declines. Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.3%, confirming a rather stable inflation climate despite ample risks to the outlook
It has been a rocky year for the global car industry – and it's not over yet. US new car sales are slowing, and the European market remains sluggish, but strong demand in China and South America means we still expect slightly higher global annual sales. Meanwhile, carmakers are navigating tough competition on multiple fronts
We don't think markets should dismiss another European Central Bank rate cut as eurozone inflation starts to drift below target. At the same time, the prospect of recovering growth – boosted by the German fiscal situation – should keep the back end anchored higher. We therefore see steeper curves in the near term
The dollar has found a little support at the start of the week. Chinese authorities have now turned to fixing USD/CNY a little higher, which removes one of the dollar's negative impulses from last week. The highlight of an otherwise quiet session will be today's eurozone flash CPI release for August and the US ISM business confidence data
The week started slowly in the US and Canada as markets were closed for the Labour Day holiday.
The MPC wraps up its first post-summer holiday meeting on 3 September, and we expect a 25bp rate cut as policymakers attempt to adjust the monetary stance to lower inflation. As we see inflation sustainably returning to target, we’re still pencilling in another cut later in the year, likely in November
This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting is set to be a non-event, with the group expected to keep output levels unchanged
Inflation eased in August, largely due to a one-time reduction in mobile phone fees, suggesting a rebound in September. Even so, inflation is likely to remain below 2%, supporting a Bank of Korea rate cut in October
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Economic growth in Poland remains robust (3.4% year-on-year in 2Q) and is more buoyant than in other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Industry is facing the same headwinds as CEE peers, and construction is stagnant while services are solidly expanding. Consumption growth should allow for near-4% YoY growth in the second half and 3.5% GDP in 2025
August’s PMI remained in the contraction zone, as supply chain issues dampened output. However, new orders increased, and confidence remained upbeat. The Czech economy appears poised to hum along smoothly, with no need for loose monetary policy
Falling unemployment suggests that the eurozone economy remains resilient in the face of global uncertainty. Modest economic growth seems realistic for the coming quarters, as the strong labour market should aid some domestic recovery
Artificial intelligence offers us a whole host of new opportunities – but with its usage on the rise, concerns surrounding safety also appear to be growing rapidly. An increasing number of incidents is now reinforcing the need for harmonised ethical and regulatory standards
Unlike financial markets, we still think the odds are tilted slightly in favour of another Bank of England rate cut in November. Nothing is guaranteed, though, and these are the key data points that will decide the fate of the Bank's easing cycle later this year
After today's Labor Day holiday, this week's US calendar is packed with labour market data, culminating in Friday's August jobs report. Elsewhere, investors don't quite know what to make of an appeals court ruling Trump's universal tariffs illegal. Could it be a story of lost revenues weighing on the Treasury market? We expect the dollar to stay soft