Chinese equities hit a fresh three-year high, while India's Nifty 50 rebounded on Monday after President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended a weekend summit in Shanghai alongside leaders from Russia, Iran and Turkey. The meeting focused on strengthening ties among emerging markets in the face of what participants described as aggressive US trade policies.
Strong global demand for AI boosted Korean exports in August while clearer signs of negative impact of US tariffs emerged. Looking forward, fiscal policy is likely to support growth in 2026, mitigating weak external demand and tariff shocks
Oil prices settled lower on Friday, and remain under pressure in early morning trading today, despite France and Germany pushing for secondary sanctions on Russian energy buyers
South Korean manufacturing output, retail sales, and investment increased in July. As fiscal stimulus kicks in, activity is expected to strengthen further in the third quarter. But the boost could prove temporary as tariff headwinds curb exports and increase odds of a Bank of Korea rate cut
An uptick in German inflation suggests that the risk of significant inflation undershooting is still more than overdone. At the same time, the increase weakens the case for an ECB rate cut at the September meeting
The 0.1% GDP contraction was driven by the net exports drag, partially offset by inventories and gross fixed capital formation. Consumption was flat, but could improve a bit over the rest of the year should inflation remain under control, as we believe
The decline in headline inflation to 2.8% YoY in August and further easing of core inflation would likely allow policymakers to cut rates by 25bp in September, but highly expansionary fiscal policy is expected to prompt a cautious approach ahead. Rate setters may pause in October and return to the rate cut discussion in November
The number of unemployed people has increased above the three-million mark for the first time since 2015, providing further evidence that a long period of economic stagnation eventually takes a toll on the labour market
Lisa Cook is challenging her dismissal in court, and markets are seemingly staying away from pricing in any substantial dovish shifts at the FOMC beyond what can be derived from data and Powell’s remarks. But the dollar’s downside risks have increased, even if that won’t show in the near term. Today’s focus will be on inflation data in the US and eurozone
MKT INTEL VIEWS: NVDA delivered a solid print (rev +56%y/y) but the stock is down as this was the smallest % increase in 2 years and results were a bit light of expectations (see our spec sales take here). The stock market reaction across Asia Tech seems to suggest the AI trade remains intact, although reports that China chipmakers are aiming to triple AI chip output next year also helped (within SHCOMP, Tech is the only sector in the green this morning as 85% of stocks are lower).
As reported by Jiji Press on 27 August, the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election management committee indicated that day that names will be taken and disclosed when it asks lawmakers and prefectural chapter representatives for their preferences on truncating Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's term to hold a new internal leadership election.
The just-released minutes of the ECB’s July meeting show that the central bank entered the summer break with a strong feeling that the job was done and that the bar had been set high for another rate cut. Still, this wait-and-see stance had at least a touch of an easing bias
NVDA was a touch disappointing, mostly on China, while other components were largely in line. Japan AI proxies are trading higher (GSXAJPAI +1.4%), though NVDA price action will come down to positioning setup.
Hungary's recent labour market data shows a seasonal improvement, resulting in a record-high employment rate. The situation for employers is growing hotter as wage expectations remain high, but the economy struggles to thrive
August confidence indicators paint a picture of economic inertia, with growth momentum still concentrated in the services sector
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 5.00%, signalling a neutral stance amid stable inflation and slowing – but resilient – growth. While the easing cycle is nearing its end, one final rate cut this year remains likely, given our view of weaker GDP growth in the second half of the year
Wednesday saw no further progress in the administration's removal of the Fed's Lisa Cook. The FX environment remains choppy, but we note the continued low fixings in USD/CNY – seemingly a move by Beijing to preserve the purchasing power of households and boost consumption. Elsewhere, healthy car sales data in Germany can provide some support to the euro
Nvidia revealed its Q2 results yesterday after the closing bell and the numbers were, again, very impressive. The company made $46.7bn in revenue last quarter, broadly in line with expectations – and that without selling any H20 chips to China due to export restrictions. The profit margin climbed back above the 70% mark, and the company guided for $54bn in revenue this quarter – still excluding China, where the outlook remains complicated.
The Bank of Korea held policy rates at 2.5%, with a dissenting vote raising expectations for an October rate cut. The BoK’s cautious growth view also suggests more rate cuts may be on the way in 2026
The thing about the Lisa Cook affair is it's laced with legal grey. We make the simple apolitical assumption, from a market’s perspective, that Ms Cook will be replaced. Tough to undo what's been done, and an extrapolation of these circumstances result in a steeper curve from both ends. The front end does not care. The back end cares a lot (or at least should)