EU flash CPI (Nov) – 30/11 – having seen EU CPI for October slow sharply from 4.3% to 2.9% in October, traders are rapidly revising their estimates for when the ECB might start to look at cutting rates.
While some ECB policymakers have been at pains to point out that they are expecting rates to rise further there is a growing caucus on the governing council who are now urging caution when it comes to raising rates further, urging a wait and see approach.
Looking at the direction of travel when it comes to recent inflation prints the hawks can jawbone the prospect of further rate hikes as much as they like, the markets simply aren't buying it and while policymakers will claim they aren't thinking about rate cuts as this time, the markets most certainly are, with bets increasing the ECB will be first out of the traps in cutting rates as soon as Q1 next year.
EU flash CPI for November is expected to come in at %, with core prices at %
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