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The Swing Overview – Week 25

There was a rather quiet week in which the major world stock indices shook off previous losses and have been slowly rising since Monday. However, this is probably only a temporary correction of the current bearish trend.  The CNB Bank Board met for the last time in its old composition and raised the interest rate to 7%, the highest level since 1999. However, the koruna barely reacted to this increase. The reason is that the main risks are still in place and fear of a recession keeps the markets in a risk-off sentiment that benefits the US dollar.


Macroeconomic data

We had a bit of a quiet week when it comes to macroeconomic data in the US. Industrial production data was reported, which grew by 0.2% month-on-month in May, which is less than the growth seen in April, when production grew by 1.4%. While the growth is slower than expected, it is still growth, which is a positive thing.

 

In terms of labor market data, the number of jobless claims held s

The Swing Overview - Week 11 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 11 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 23.03.2022 16:13
The Swing Overview - Week 11 The fall in the indices that we have seen in recent days has stopped. The indices strengthened on expectations of a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for more than three weeks. However, these negotiations have not led to any significant breakthrough yet, so the upside potential for the indices could be limited. In addition, the Fed has started its own war against inflation and raised interest rates for the first time in three years, which is rather negative news for equity indices in the short term. However, the statistics say that in the long run it does not mean a trend reversal for the SP 500 index. The Bank of England also raised rates, but the pound surprisingly weakened. The reason for this is in our article. The war in Ukraine   The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than three weeks now and there is still no end in sight. Sentiment has started to improve after reports on negotiations for a diplomatic solution to the war. However, Russia continues to make unrealistic demands that Ukraine cannot agree to. Negotiations have therefore have not led to a solution yet.   Meanwhile, the economic situation in Russia continues to deteriorate rapidly as a result of the sanctions. The credit rating agency Standard & Poor's has downgraded Russia's credit rating from the current grade CCC- to CC. Russia has already announced that it is having difficulty repaying its bonds. However, Russia managed to pay the coupon payments that were due this week, averting the country's imminent bankruptcy for now.   The war in Ukraine will have a negative impact on the global economy. World economic growth for 2022 is expected to fall from 4% to 3.2%. Apart from Russia and Ukraine, Europe and the UK will be hardest hit, where there is a significant risk of recession.   The Fed has raised interest rates The US Fed has launched a war on inflation and raised interest rates for the first time since December 2018. The current rate is 0.50% and further increases will continue. The Fed disclosed that rates are expected to rise to 2.80% within a year.  Figure 1: The evolution of interest rates in the US   The evolution of interest rates, over the last 25 years, is shown in Figure 1.   Jerome Powell commented that the Fed's main goal is to achieve price stability and maximum employment. He expects inflation, which has now reached 7.9%, to reach the target of 2%, but this will take longer than originally expected.    The problem is a persistent labour shortage, which is putting upward pressure on wages. However, the situation is already starting to normalise in some sectors, suggesting that this should not be an uncontrollable spiral wage growth that would strongly support inflation.   According to Powell, the US economy is in good shape and ready for monetary policy normalisation. Therefore, the Fed will start in May to reduce the bonds in its balance sheet, which has grown considerably to almost $9 trillion thanks to the support of the economy during the covid pandemic.   The Index SP500 As far as the impact of interest rate hikes is concerned, this should not change the long-term bullish market. Statistics confirm that over the following 12 months from the date of the hike, the index has reached higher levels in every case since 1983. Figure 2: The impact of the first interest rate hike on the performance of the SP 500 index. Source: Bloomberg     However, the statistics also show that in the short term, there were declines in the index within 3 months and this cannot be ruled out now as well. As for the current developments on the SP 500 index, it has recently bounced off its supports. The reason for this was the hope for a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine. However, this has stalled. The Fed also gave optimism to the indices with its statement about the economy doing well. Figure 3: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   Overall, the index is currently in a downtrend. In terms of technical analysis, the price has reached the resistance level which is at 4,383 - 4,420. According to the daily chart, the price has reached the EMA 50 moving average, which also serves as resistance. Support according to the H4 chart is at 4,328 - 4,334.  Significant support according to the daily chart is at 4 105 - 4 152.  German DAX index Figure 4: The German DAX index on H4 and daily chart   There was a significant deterioration in economic sentiment in Germany in March, as shown by the ZEW index, which reached a negative reading of -39.3. However, the DAX index, which is much more affected by the war in Ukraine than the US indices, strengthened last week.  The reason for the index's rise was mainly due to signs of a diplomatic solution to the conflict. The price climbed up to the resistance level on the H4 chart last week, which is in the area near the 14,500 price. The strong resistance according to the daily chart is in the range between 14,800 - 15,000.  The closest support according to the H4 chart is at 14,030 - 14,100.   The euro strengthened after the Fed announcement The euro price retested the resistance area which is in the area near 1.1130 - 1.1150 according to the daily chart. However, the Euro remains under pressure and although the ECB was surprisingly hawkish at the last meeting, it is still lagging behind compared to the US Fed. Moreover, the war in Ukraine, and according to some, the looming recession in the Eurozone, does not give much room for the Euro to strengthen. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the EURUSD falls to levels around 1. 0890 - 1. 0900, where the nearest support level is.     Figure 5: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts.   From a technical point of view, we can see that EURUSD is still in a downtrend according to the daily chart, so the current pullback may be an opportunity for trades in the short direction.   The Bank of England also raised interest rates The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by 0.25%.  Therefore, the rate is currently at 0.75%. By raising interest rates, the central bank is responding to rising inflation, which is expected to hit 8% in June 2022. But the pound surprisingly weakened sharply after the rate announcement. This was because the central bank was much more cautious in its expectations for the future of the economy. There are already signs that the war in Ukraine is having a negative impact on consumer confidence and is also having a negative impact on household incomes. This would slow economic activity. That is why the central bank has moved away from its previous aggressive hawkish tone.   Figure 6: The British Pound on H4 and daily chart.   A resistance is in the area of 1.3170 - 1.3200, where the price has halted. A support is at 1.3000.  
What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 23.03.2022 21:33
Investors and traders alike are concerned about what investments they should make on behalf of their portfolios and retirement accounts. We, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to monitor stocks and commodities closely due to the Russia-Ukraine War, market volatility, surging inflation, and rising interest rates. Several of our subscribers have asked if changes in monitor policy may lead to a recession as higher rates take a bigger bite out of corporate profits.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. We review our charts for both stocks and commodities to see what we can learn from the most recent price action. Before we dive into that, let’s review the various stages of the market; with special attention given to expansion vs. contraction in a rising interest rate environment which you can see illustrated below.PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIOWe are keeping an especially close eye on the price action of the SPY ETF. The current resistance for the SPY is the 475 top that happened around January 6, 2022. This top was 212.5% of the March 23, 2020, low that was put in at the height of the Covid global pandemic.The SPY found support in the 410 area at the end of February. If you recall (or didn't know), 410 was the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8% percent of the Covid 2020 price drop. Now, after experiencing a nice rally back, of a little over 50%, we are waiting to see if the rally can continue or if rotation will occur, sending the price back lower.COMMODITY MARKETS SURGEDThe commodity markets experienced a tremendous rally due to fast-rising inflation, especially energy, metals, and food prices.The GSG ETF price action shows that we recently touched 200%, or the doubling of the April 21, 2020, low. Immediately following, similar to the SPY, the GSCI commodity index promptly sold off only to then find substantial buying support at the Fibonacci 1.618 or 161.8 percent of the starting low price of the bull trend. Resistance for the GSG is at 26, and support is 21.A STRENGTHENING US DOLLARThe strengthening US dollar can be attributed to investors seeking a safe haven from geopolitical events, surging inflation, and the Fed beginning to raise rates. The US Dollar is still considered the primary reserve currency as the greatest portion of forex reserves held by central banks are in dollars. Furthermore, most commodities, including gold and crude oil, are also denominated in dollars.Consider the following statement from the Bank of International Settlements www.bis.org ‘Triennial Central Bank Survey’ published September 16, 2019: “The US dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% of all trades.” The report also highlighted, “Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion three years earlier.” That’s a lot of dollars traded globally and confirms that we need to stay current on the dollars price action.Multinational companies are especially keeping a close eye on the dollar as any major shift in global money flows will seriously negatively impact their net profit and subsequent share value.The following chart by www.finviz.com provides us with a current snapshot of the relative performance of the US dollar vs. major global currencies over the past year:KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades earlier this week, two of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 23.03.2022 19:52
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell by 5,664 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 6,264 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 600 contracts. The decline in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. The increase in total net positions occurred in the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc. The significant growth in positions of large speculators in the commodity currencies AUD, NZD and CAD can be explained by the rising prices of commodities exported by these countries. A large number of options and futures contracts expired last week, which explains the large decline in open interest for each currency. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Býčí         Total Change -19421 -11523 -601 -10922     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 18 794 contracts last week and they are down by 40 050 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 40,643 contracts and an increase in short positions by 593 contracts. These data suggest a weakening of the bullish sentiment in the euro. The open interest, which fell by 72,980 contracts in the last week, shows that the upward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by a volume and it is therefore a weak price action. The euro continues to weaken under the influence of the war in Ukraine. Last week it returned to a resistance level which could be an opportunity to trade short in the event of a downtrend.  Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0640-1.0700.   The British pound date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish         Total Change 4316 2845 8301 -5456     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to -29,061 contracts and they are down by 16,535 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 18,540 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,005 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there is also their further decline. Open interest, which fell by 57,989 contracts last week, means that the rise in the pound price that occurred last week was not supported by volume and it is therefore a weak price action. Risk off sentiment due to the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on the pound and therefore the pound is weakening strongly. Although the Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.25% to 0.75% last week, it also warned of a decline in economic growth as a result of the war in Ukraine. The change in central bank rhetoric is a bearish signal for the pound. Long-term resistance: 1.3180-1.3210.  Next resistance is near 1.3270 – 1.3330. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish         Total Change -72392 5446 -29527 34973     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1     The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 44 856 contracts, having increased by 33 339 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,706 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 28,579 contracts. This data suggests a weakening of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. Last week we saw a decline in open interest of 72,573 contracts. This means that the upward move that occurred last week was not supported by a volume and it was therefore a weak move as new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar strengthened strongly again last week and reached a resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.7370-0.7440 Long-term support: 0.7160-0.7180.  A strong support is near 0.7080 – 0.7120.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish         Total Change -19267 2288 -13063 15351     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 3,653 contracts last week and they are up by 16,032 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,718 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 10,314 contracts. This data suggests that there was bullish sentiment on the New Zealand dollar last week. Open interest fell significantly by 14,050 contracts last week. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and reached the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.690 – 0.6930 Long-term support: 0.6730-0.6740 and the next support is at 0.6590 – 0.6600.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
$30 Trilion Crypto Market Cap!? Regulated Cryptocurrencies Might Increase Demand!

$30 Trilion Crypto Market Cap!? Regulated Cryptocurrencies Might Increase Demand!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.03.2022 09:22
Bitcoin is trading above $43K on Thursday morning, gaining 2.5% over the past 24 hours. Moderate but steady optimism around bitcoin is the best breeding ground for altcoin buyers. Bitcoin is trading around the resistance For the last ten days, we have seen a systematic increase in prices, although with a very modest amplitude by the standards of the crypto market. Ethereum added 3.4%, other leading altcoins from the top ten are in the range from +1% (XRP) to +12% (Dogecoin). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 2.8% over the past day, to $1.96 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index lost another 0.2% to 41.7%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed has grown by 9 points, to 40. This is still a fear zone, but already close to neutral territory. Bitcoin retreated from the resistance at $43K on Tuesday. However, on Thursday it is making attempts to gain a foothold above this mark again. The last rollback in this case could be nothing more than a tactical retreat of the bulls in order to develop growth with renewed vigor. Nevertheless, confidence in the formation of a strong bullish momentum will come only after BTCUSD fixes above 45 thousand, from where we saw reversals in February and early March. Moderate but steady optimism around bitcoin is the best breeding ground for altcoin buyers. It is clearly seen that their dynamics is now better than that of the first cryptocurrency. If this trend continues for a couple more days, the effect of a feedback loop may work, when the outstripping growth of altcoins will pull Bitcoin up. Market Cap may grow in 15 times Bank of America predicts that regulation of the cryptocurrency market will increase confidence and increase its capitalization by 15 times, up to $30 trillion. The former head of one of the divisions of Bank of America, David Woo, believes that bitcoin will face economic and geopolitical pressure after the launch of the state digital currency (CBDC) of the United States. China has already acted in a similar way, which has come closest to the introduction of the digital yuan. Thailand will ban the usage of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment from April 1. They declared that such payments have a negative impact on the financial system and reduce the effectiveness of the state's monetary policy.
FX: British Pound (GBP) Keeps Struggling, Can EUR/GBP Go On With Recovery? Gold Price: What About XAGUSD?

Natural Gas Price Rises As Triggered By Putin’s Rhetoric That He Will ‘Demand Rouble Gas Payments’

Mikołaj Marcinowski Mikołaj Marcinowski 24.03.2022 12:47
According to Investing.com Russia could require gas payment in roubles what clearly affects both Forex pairs (e.g. EUR/RUB) and natural gas price (TTF) which has increased by 31%. What’s more MOEX is back to the game after such a long break. Some companies have gained significantly already and many would like to know what’s ahead. Generally speaking Russian currency and Russia-associated markets are really volatile at the moment and there are many assets to watch in the following days. Let’s begin with natural gas price. Obviously monthly chart (yes, it’s been one month since the warfare started) shows the fluctuations caused by the start of invasion which took place on February 24th We may say that the true rise came few days later, as negotiations of cease-fire haven’t changed a thing and sanctions have begun to impact the markets. Further developments containing some signals of a ceasefire appeared not to coincide with the reality heading price of natural gas to a next rise. Natural Gas Price Chat (TTF) – monthly 24/02-23/03 - +31% Natural Gas Price Chart (TTF) Daily 22-23/03/22 +18.5% Russian Roubel (RUB) – Forex Charts +11% Monthly chart shows a huge decline and strengthening of RUB. EUR/RUB Chart - Monthly +6% EUR/RUB Chart - Daily (24h) Source/Data: Investing.com, TradingView.com Charts: Courtesy of TradingView.com  
Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Falling Japanese yen suggests a changing world order

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 24.03.2022 15:23
The collapse of the Japanese yen continues, and so far, there are no signs of a trend reversal. The rise in the Yen is often linked to capital flight from risky assets, and the weakening is a sign of increased demand for risky assets. But that explanation hardly fits with what is happening now. We likely see the start of a significant reassessment by the markets of Japan's position in the financial system. In a worst-case scenario, this may turn into a debt crisis in the Land of the Rising Sun and be an even bigger disaster for financial markets than the eurozone debt crisis of a decade ago.The starting point for the weakening of the Yen was at the start of February. At that time, equities were in demand as a haven for capital to maintain the purchasing power of investments. The flow into equities was interrupted by the war in Ukraine but accelerated in the last couple of weeks on signs that these events have hyped up the processes that were taking place before. And these processes are now most visible in the dynamics of the Japanese yen against those currencies where the central bank can respond adequately to inflation.Since the start of February, the USDJPY has risen by 6.5%, and almost all of this increase has taken place since March 7th, taking the pair back to levels last seen at the end of 2015. A much more impressive rally is taking place in the Aussie and Kiwi against the Yen. Since the start of February, they have soared by more than 12%. So far this month, the strengthening is the largest in 11 years for AUDJPY and in more than 12 years for NZDJPY.The interest rate differential game, which was so beloved by traders in Japan before the global financial crisis, has found a second life. Australia and New Zealand have the economic potential to raise interest rates, as they are experiencing a surge in exports due to the boom in their export prices. However, the situation in Japan looks considerably more alarming, as Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen by 77 percentage points to 170% since the financial crisis. Permanent QE from the Bank of Japan has kept government debt costs down but doesn't solve the problem.In the last decade, Japan has turned into a net commodity importer due to its growing dependence on energy and metals and increasing competition from China and Korea. The exchange rate should act as a natural mechanism to stabilise trade in this situation.But this adjustment is difficult for debt-laden Japan because selling currency would de facto mean selling bonds denominated in that currency. Under these circumstances, the Bank of Japan will either have to openly accept that it will finance the government (i.e. increase purchases despite inflation) or soften QE. The first option risks triggering a historic revaluation of the Yen. The second option would deal a blow to the economy and finances by raising questions about whether Japan can service its debt.
Nvidia Stock News and Forecast: NVDA shares up after unveiling $1 trillion market opportunity

Nvidia Stock News and Forecast: NVDA shares up after unveiling $1 trillion market opportunity

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.03.2022 16:22
NVDA stock dropped 3.4% on Wednesday trading.Nvidia CEO says focus on software gives chipmaker $1 trillion market.Nvidia could reshore chip fabrication using Intel.Nvidia stock (NVDA) is up 3.2% to $264.42 on Wednesday after management announced a broader focus on software that could give Nvidia a total addressable market of $1 trillion. Additionally, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told Reuters on Wednesday that he was in discussion with Intel to use the legacy chipmaker's semiconductor foundries to produce Nvidia's chips in the United States.Nvidia Stock News: $1 trillion opportunityAt an investor day presentation earlier this week, Nvidia executives walked analysts through a much larger strategy that entailed a total addressable market (TAM) for Nvidia's various business segments of $1 trillion per year. The larger market for Nvidia products than earlier estimates stems from Nvidia's new focus on software platform offerings. The bigger TAM breaks down to $150 billion from omniverse enterprise software, $150 billion from artificial intelligence software, $100 billion from gaming, $300 billion from the existing semiconductor chip business, and $300 billion from the automotive segment. A solid section of the automotive opportunity also comes from software.Evercore ISI's C.J. Muse found the large figures hard to fathom but said his investment colleagues are, “firm believers in the company’s hardware and software strategies that should deliver world-class organic growth for years to come.”Evercore and Bernstein both have recently reiterated outperform ratings for Nvidia stock. Evercore has a $375 price target on NVDA shares, a solid 44% upside, while Bernstein has a price target of $350. Bernstein pointed out in a letter to clients that Nvidia only makes a few hundred million dollars in annual revenue now from software but sees well over $300 billion in opportunity for that segment.In separate news, CEO Jensen Huang said he was quite willing to work with Intel to produce Nvidia chips onshore in the US. Currently, the company has Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) producing much of its catalog. He told reporters that it could take years of discussions to finalize a fabrication deal, however, as it is an extremely detailed process. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger was on Capitol Hill on Wednesday to brief the US Senate's Commerce Committee on his company's plans to utilize funding from the $52 billion CHIPS Act to reshore and expand US semiconductor fabrication.Nvidia Stock Forecast: NVDA bulls hope for $284Monday and Tuesday of this week both saw Nvidia stock break above the February 10 swing high at $269.25. Right now in the $264s, Nvidia is at support. If it falls below $255.50, volume pressure may push NVDA down to $240, where there is support from both February and the 50-day moving average. To keep the rally going, bulls will try to make a play for $284.22. This level acted as resistance in early to mid-January.Back on March 16, Nvidia shares broke out of a descending trend that began on November 22, 2021. For the rally to continue, the 20-day moving average needs to break above the 50-day moving average fairly soon, possibly by the end of next week at the latest. Long-term support continues to sit at $208.90.NVDA 1-day chart
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos on the front foot as rebound turns into new uptrend

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos on the front foot as rebound turns into new uptrend

FXStreet News FXStreet News 24.03.2022 16:22
Bitcoin price set to touch $45,000 by tomorrow if current tailwinds keep supporting price action. Ethereum price set to rally another 12%, with bulls targeting $3,500.00XRP price undergoes consolidation as the next profit level is $0.90.Bitcoin price, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies are enjoying a calm week with tailwinds finally able to thrive without constant interruption from headlines about Ukraine or Russia. Markets are also starting to adjust to the situation, with no immediate or significant movements anymore triggered by headlines coming out. Expect to see more upside with several possible cryptocurrencies eking out the best week of the year thus far.Bitcoin price has a defined game plan with $44,088 as the target for today and $45,261 by the weekendBitcoin (BTC) price is on the front foot for a third consecutive day as the rally turns into a broader uptrend. The crucial thing will be to see where BTC price will close this week, as bears need to get weakened with several short squeezes and breakouts running stops from short-sellers. Despite being elevated, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still not near the 'overbought' level, providing enough incentive for bulls and investors to keep buying BTC price action.BTC price is set to hit $44,088.73 today, the level of the March 03 highs. If that is gained – and given the current tailwinds – markets will start to expect Bitcoin to eke out new highs for the month with still a week to go. This additional bullish element should help conclude a daily close above $44,088.73. A support test on that same level will trigger new inflows from investors and provide the needed juice to pump price action up to $45,261.84, topping $45,000.00.BTC/USD daily chartA tail risk comes from the big joint meeting today in Brussels, with Biden meeting NATO, the G7 and E.U. leaders. An embargo on gas is on the table and could roil markets if the E.U. decides to walk away from Russian gas supplies, opening up the possibility of further Russian retaliation in Ukraine. That would make global markets move back to risk-off mode, with Bitcoin price dropping back to support at $39,780.68, and intersecting with the green ascending trend line. Ethereum price targets $3,500 after bulls force a daily close above $3,018.55Ethereum (ETH) price is performing a 'classic long' trading plan today after bulls pushed a daily close above $3,018.55. With price action in ETH opening slightly above this level, this morning, the price has faded slightly back towards that same $3,018.55 level to find support and offer the opportunity for new bulls and investors to enter the market. Ethereum price will move back to the upside and continue its rally, which is currently looking more and more like an uptrend that could continue over a broader time frame.ETH price will therefore need to find support around $3,018.55 as the fade will need to be kept in check, as too large a fade could spook investors. Seeing as the current favourable tailwinds are quite broadly present in global markets, expect to see another uplift towards $3,200 and $3,391.52 depending on the number of new positive headlines acting as additional accelerators. With those moves, at least new highs for March will be printed and possibly for February, depending on how steep the rally can continue.ETH/USD daily chartThe risk for Ethereum price is that price action slips back below $3,018.55. That could open the door for bears to jump in again and run price action back to $2,835.83, which is the low of March 21 and the monthly pivot. An additional fail-safe system is the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $2,808.84 as an additional supportive factor to take into account.https://youtu.be/wgpCSH70SIQXRP price undergoes consolidation as the bullish breakout hits $0.90Ripple's (XRP) price has bears and bulls being pushed towards each other as the bodies of the candles from the past two sessions grow very thin. This points to bulls and bears fighting it out and neither yet having the upper hand. Bears are defending the area above $0.8390 from bulls running to $0.8791, and bulls are trying to defend their support at $0.7843. With lower highs and higher lows, the stage is set for a breakout that, seeing the current tailwinds, will probably favour bulls, and result in a quick move towards $0.8791.XRP price is thus set to print new highs for March. With the stock markets having their best performing week for this year, expect to see even more tailwinds spilling over to cryptocurrencies and bulls targeting $0.9110. At that level, bulls will run into the 200-day SMA which will possibly be the halting point of the current uptrend as investors will need to reassess the situation before they advance. Where global markets are at that point and how far off a peace treaty is between Russia and Ukraine will determine if bulls will advance towards $1.00 in XRP price.XRP/USD daily chartAlthough several statements suggest it is unlikely, should Putin be backed further into a corner, the use of nuclear weapons could cast a dark shadow on markets. Expect a massive drop in equities and cryptocurrencies with those headlines coming out, where XRP price will fall towards $0.7843 or even $0.7600. In the first case, the historic pivotal level will provide support and further down, the monthly pivot is set to intertwine with the 55-day SMA, which should be enough to catch any falling-knife action. https://youtu.be/ZWrKMd2CiL8
Crude Oil Holds Its Breath Ahead of World Summits

Crude Oil Holds Its Breath Ahead of World Summits

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 24.03.2022 16:46
Current levels of oil and petroleum products are high. Given that, what can explain such a surprising drop in US crude inventories?Energy Market UpdatesCommercial crude oil reserves in the United States fell much more than expected in the week ended March 18, according to figures released on Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).US crude inventories have shrunk by more than 2.5 million barrels, which implies greater demand and is obviously another bullish factor for crude oil prices. Such a decline in inventories is particularly remarkable as the American strategic reserves have also recorded a significant drop. This is the 25th consecutive week of falling strategic reserves since the Biden administration started to make those adjustments in an attempt to relieve the market.(Source: Investing.com)WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)Furthermore, some additional figures extracted from the same EIA report were released and surprised the markets.These are US Gasoline Reserves, which plunged by about 2.95 million barrels over a week, while the market was not even forecasting a two-million decline.(Source: Investing.com)Thus, US exports jumped by more than 30% compared to the previous week, not only due to large flows to Europe to replace Russian barrels, but also marked by a significant rebound in Asian demand.RBOB Gasoline (RBJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)Beware that a NATO summit, a G7 summit, and a European Union summit are being held on Thursday, when the various countries could set a new round of sanctions against Moscow.So, how will black gold progress from now on? Do you think that the on-going negotiations with Iran and Venezuela could flood the market with additional barrels? Let us know in the comments!That’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Price Of Gold Nears $45k As Many Authorities Are Speaking Of Crypto

Price Of Gold Nears $45k As Many Authorities Are Speaking Of Crypto

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.03.2022 08:52
Bitcoin is trading above $44.1K on Friday, gaining 2.4% over the past day and 8.2% over the week. Increased inquiry for BTC Yesterday, the first cryptocurrency was in demand during the Asian and American sessions. The current values of BTC are consolidating in the area of 2-month extremes. In contrast to the previous test of these levels, this time, we see a smooth rise in the rate, indicating that the bulls still have some momentum. Also, over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has gained 2.4%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten have strengthened from 0.5% (XRP) to 7.4% (Solana). The exception is Terra, which is shedding 1.8%, correcting part of its gains in the first half of the week. According to CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market capitalization increased by 2.3% to $2 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose 0.1 percentage points to 41.8%. The Fear and Greed Cryptocurrency Index added another 7 points to 47 and ended up in the neutral territory. Cardano leads the last week in terms of growth among top coins (+39%) as Coinbase added the possibility of staking cryptocurrency with a current estimated annual return of 3.75% per annum. Countries assess the risks of cryptos Credit Suisse reported that Bitcoin doesn't pose a threat to the banking sector as an alternative to fiat money and banking services. The CEO of BlackRock, one of the world's largest investment companies, noted that military actions in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia will increase the popularity of cryptocurrencies and accelerate their adoption. Despite the rally in global stocks over the past two weeks, financial conditions in the debt markets continue to deteriorate due to rising interest rates and inflation. Largely because of this, El Salvador has postponed the issuance of bitcoin bonds in anticipation of more favorable conditions. Since very active steps to raise key rates are expected in the next year and a half, and Bitcoin is far from the highs, it is unlikely that such bonds will be issued soon. The Bank of England intends to tighten supervision of cryptocurrencies due to the financial risks that their adoption carries. However, the Central Bank urged commercial banks to exercise maximum caution when dealing with these extremely volatile assets.
Russian oil and gas divestment forms a steady upward price trend

Russian oil and gas divestment forms a steady upward price trend

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 25.03.2022 10:43
Oil and gas remain hot topics in the markets. Although these energy prices have corrected from their recent highs, the uptrend promised to be with us as long as there are no signs of de-escalation in Ukraine. Moreover, high energy prices are turning into a new reality that could stay with us for years to come.While most news headlines focus on spot gas price developments in Europe, an upward trend has also emerged in the US. This trend has intensified over the past ten days amid discussions about cutting gas supplies from Russia.Biden urged Europe to increase its US liquefied natural gas purchases, even though supplies were already double the previous year's level. Putin's demand to be paid for Russian gas in roubles makes these purchases as uncomfortable as possible. Such a move would accelerate Europe's rejection of Russian energy, proving to voters in the region that they cannot rely on Russian power.The demand for alternative gas from the US and the Middle East is growing. And this demand promises to be a long-term trend. Even in the event of a military de-escalation in the coming weeks, attitudes towards Russia in Europe and the US will be tainted for years, and European countries will continue their economically unprofitable reliance on gas from Russia.The US has all but tapped its spare capacity to produce and supply gas to Europe. It will take time to expand, so competition among buyers is now gaining momentum.Much of the same applies to Russian oil, which is exported at 4 million BPD and, with political will, could be fully substituted in less than a year. OPEC is not showing the necessary will and is in no hurry to take Russia's share of the global oil trade.While oil and gas consumers in Europe and some Asian countries are cutting back as much as possible on purchases from Russia, energy prices on global markets continue to rise. At the same time, the discount for spot prices for Russian oil and gas remains exceptionally high.Reducing Russia's 30% share of Europe's gas supply is painful and long-term. Finding a new balance could take several quarters or even years, during which energy prices will remain above long-term average levels or occasionally spike.
Is There Any Gold in Virtual Worlds Like Metaverse?

Is There Any Gold in Virtual Worlds Like Metaverse?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 25.03.2022 12:15
Imagine all the people… living life in the Metaverse. Once we immerse ourselves in the digital sphere, gold may go out of fashion. Or maybe not?Do you already have your avatar? If not, maybe you should consider creating one, as the Metaverse is coming! What is the Metaverse? It is a digital, three-dimensional world where people are represented by avatars, a network of 3D virtual worlds focused on social connection, the next evolution of the internet, “extended reality,” and the latest buzzword in the marketplace since Facebook changed its name to Meta. If you still have no idea what I’m talking about, you can watch this or just Spielberg’s Ready Player One.The idea of personalities being uploaded online is an intriguing concept, isn’t it? In this vision, people meet with others, play, and simply hang out in a digital world. Imagine friends turning group chats on Messenger or WhatsApp into group meetups in the Metaverse of family gatherings in virtual homes. Ultimately, people will probably be doing pretty much everything there, except eating, sleeping, and using the restroom.Sounds scary? For people in their 30s and older who were fascinated by The Matrix, it does. However, this is really happening. The augmented reality technology market is expected to grow from $47 billion in 2019 to $1.5 trillion in 2030, mainly thanks to the development of the Metaverse. China’s virtual goods and services market is expected to be worth almost $250 billion this year and $370 billion in the next four years.In a sense, it had to happen as the next phase of the digital revolution. You see, we now experience much of life on the two-dimensional screens of our laptops and smartphones. The Metaverse moves us from a flat and boring 2D to a 3D virtual universe, where we can visualize and experience things with a more natural user interface. Let’s take shopping as an example. Instead of purchasing items on Amazon, customers could enter a virtual shop, see and touch all products in 3D, and buy whatever they wanted (actually, Walmart launched its own 3D shopping experience in 2018).OK, we get the idea, but why does Metaverse matter, putting aside sociological or philosophical issues related to transferring our minds into the digital world? Well, it might strongly affect every aspect of business and life, just as the internet did earlier. Here are a couple of examples. Famous brands, like Dolce & Gabbana, are designing clothes and jewelry for the digital world. Some artists are giving concerts in virtual reality. You could also visit some museums virtually, and instead of taking a business trip, you can digitally teleport to remote locations to meet with your co-workers’ avatars.Finally, what does the Metaverse imply for the gold market? Well, it’s difficult to grasp all the possible implications right now. However, the main threat is clear: as people immerse deeper and deeper into the digital world, gold could become obsolete for many users. Please note that cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are and will continue to be widely used as payment methods in the Metaverse.However, there are some caveats here. First, the invention and spread of the internet didn’t sink gold. Actually, the internet enabled gold to be widely traded by investors all over the world. Just take a look at the chart below. Although gold was in a bear market in the 1990s and struggled during the dot-com bubble, it rallied after the bubble burst.Second, the digital world didn’t kill the analog reality. Despite digital streaming of music, vinyl record sales soared last year, reaching a record high in a few decades. The development of the Metaverse could trigger a similar backlash and a return to tangible goods like gold.Third, some segments of the Metaverse look like bubbles. Maybe I’m just too old, but why the heck would anybody spend hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars to buy items in the virtual world? These items include virtual real estates (CNBC says that sales of real estate in the metaverse topped $500 million last year and could double this year), digital pieces of art or even tweets (yup, the founder of Twitter sold the first tweet ever for just under $3 million)! It does not make any sense to me, as I can right-click and download a copy of the same digital files (like a PNG file of a grey pet rock) for which people pay thousands and millions of dollars.Of course, certain items could increase the utility of the game or virtual experience, but my bet is that at least some buyers simply speculate on prices, expecting that they will be able to resell these items to greater fools. When this digital gold rush ends – and given the Fed’s tightening cycle, it may happen in the not-so-distant future – real gold could laugh last.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.
Tilray Stock Forecast: TLRY zooms 18% higher on US legislation hopes

Tilray Stock Forecast: TLRY zooms 18% higher on US legislation hopes

FXStreet News FXStreet News 26.03.2022 05:15
Tilray stock rose 21.8% on ThursdayHigh level of call contracts expire this Friday.US lower house will take up decriminalization legislation next week.Canadian cannabis powerhouse Tilray Brands (TLRY) is reaping the benefits of the US House of Representatives adding major legislation important to the industry to the calendar for next week. Tilray stock is up more than 18% at Friday's open to a momentary high of $8.35. In just a week the company has doubled its market cap, and other competitors like Sundial Growers (SNDL), Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC), Aurora Cannabis (ACB) also benefitting from the optimism.Tilray Brands Stock News: MORE Act has cannabis stocks rallyingThe Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment & Expungement Act, or MORE Act, will receive focus from the House and taken up for discussion next week. This law would decriminalize cannabis at the federal level, which may allow cannabis companies to begin utilizing better financing through regular old banks. As of now, most banks will not work with cannabis growers, which forces them to seek out a much higher cost of capital. The law would also erase past federal criminal offenses involving the sale of cannabis. This would be a major step toward broader decriminalization of recreational use that more states may follow, which would eventually open up new markets and customers to existing licensed growers.Tilray call options are soaring in value on Friday morning, even those that expire at the end of the session. The $8 strike contract has soared more than 82% to $0.42, and at the time of writing 8,730 contracts have traded already. This is about 25% above open interest. Sundial Growers stock is up nearly 12%, and Cresco Labs has advanced more than 5%.Tilray announced earlier this month that it had acquired $211 million in convertible notes from Hexo, another major competitor in Canadian cannabis. If exercised, Tilray would own about 37% of Hexo. This is yet another move by Tilray to grow its global footprint. The corporation already has access to the Canadian, US and European markets. The current management strategy is to raise revenue, now at $600 million annually, to $4 billion by 2024. Tilray seems to be trying to achieve this mostly through acquisitions. The stock is down 65% over the past year, partly because Tilray has diluted its shareholders by more than 50% in order to pay for some of these acquisitions.Tilray Brands Forecast: Breaking through one year of resistanceOn Thursday Tilray stock resolutely broke through top line resistance that has been working on the daily chart for about one year. The descending top line has been in play since about March 17, 2021, and connects to highs on June 9, 2021, and November 14, 2021. By closing up nearly 22% on Thursday, TLRY broke that trend line with force. Resistance at $7.30 has now turned into support, with Friday's intraday high of $8.35. Although TLRY is selling off to $7.55 in mid-session, bulls will see regaining this $8.35 high as a significant goal. From there, the resistance target rises to $9.94 – the high from December 8, 2021.TLRY 1-day chart
Large Currency Speculators sharply cut back on Canadian dollar bets

Large Currency Speculators sharply cut back on Canadian dollar bets

Invest Macro Invest Macro 27.03.2022 13:29
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the sharp pullback in the Canadian dollar currency futures contracts. Canadian dollar speculators cut back on their bullish bets by a total of -22,680 contracts, the largest change among currencies this week and one week after CAD saw bullish bets rise by over +10,000 contracts (bringing the speculator standing to a six-week high). This week’s decline dropped the total net speculator standing back into bearish territory (-4,940 contracts) for the first time in the past ten weeks, dating back to January 11th. The major commodity currencies (Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar) all saw pullbacks in their speculator bets this week after strong rises last week. The only currency markets with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,255 contracts) and the Euro (5,049 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-16,142 contracts), Brazil real (-2,599 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,195 contracts), British pound sterling (-8,183 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,133 contracts), Canadian dollar (-22,680 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-190 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-22-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 51,952 72 29,635 77 -33,521 19 3,886 59 EUR 658,817 66 23,843 42 -46,378 63 22,535 12 GBP 195,712 36 -37,244 47 50,390 59 -13,146 28 JPY 248,221 87 -78,482 18 104,790 88 -26,308 0 CHF 44,911 21 -8,424 55 20,499 54 -12,075 28 CAD 124,090 13 -4,940 43 -7,565 54 12,505 55 AUD 127,767 28 -51,189 37 48,388 55 2,801 59 NZD 35,256 15 2,520 75 -2,069 27 -451 47 MXN 134,766 19 -18,051 20 13,919 79 4,132 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,832 68 41,564 91 -44,463 8 2,899 100 Bitcoin 11,274 61 0 94 -481 0 481 24   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,380 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.8 3.2 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.8 67.7 3.0 – Net Position: 29,635 -33,521 3,886 – Gross Longs: 43,561 1,665 5,434 – Gross Shorts: 13,926 35,186 1,548 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 18.9 59.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.1 12.1 -34.7   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,794 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 54.3 11.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.8 61.3 8.1 – Net Position: 23,843 -46,378 22,535 – Gross Longs: 207,051 357,492 75,970 – Gross Shorts: 183,208 403,870 53,435 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.3 62.6 11.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.6 7.6 -19.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -37,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,061 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.7 70.4 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.8 44.7 16.6 – Net Position: -37,244 50,390 -13,146 – Gross Longs: 32,753 137,829 19,316 – Gross Shorts: 69,997 87,439 32,462 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.2 59.5 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.7 24.3 -25.6   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -78,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,340 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 76.2 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.4 34.0 17.7 – Net Position: -78,482 104,790 -26,308 – Gross Longs: 36,676 189,100 17,749 – Gross Shorts: 115,158 84,310 44,057 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.4 88.2 0.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.2 14.3 -19.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,229 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 68.3 18.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.1 22.6 45.0 – Net Position: -8,424 20,499 -12,075 – Gross Longs: 6,012 30,663 8,143 – Gross Shorts: 14,436 10,164 20,218 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.2 53.9 27.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.7 4.0 -13.4   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,740 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.6 47.8 26.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.6 53.9 16.8 – Net Position: -4,940 -7,565 12,505 – Gross Longs: 29,314 59,269 33,406 – Gross Shorts: 34,254 66,834 20,901 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.9 54.1 54.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.2 6.8 20.8   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,856 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.6 59.4 20.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.7 21.5 17.8 – Net Position: -51,189 48,388 2,801 – Gross Longs: 23,747 75,916 25,508 – Gross Shorts: 74,936 27,528 22,707 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.4 55.0 59.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.0 -37.3 37.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,653 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.7 40.4 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 46.2 10.7 – Net Position: 2,520 -2,069 -451 – Gross Longs: 17,156 14,227 3,339 – Gross Shorts: 14,636 16,296 3,790 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.5 27.2 46.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.6 -22.8 21.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,576 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.1 51.1 5.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.5 40.8 2.0 – Net Position: -18,051 13,919 4,132 – Gross Longs: 58,150 68,880 6,851 – Gross Shorts: 76,201 54,961 2,719 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.6 78.6 60.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 7.5 5.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,163 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.6 15.3 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 78.1 2.8 – Net Position: 41,564 -44,463 2,899 – Gross Longs: 55,001 10,863 4,851 – Gross Shorts: 13,437 55,326 1,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.2 7.9 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -21.5 8.5   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 0 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 74.7 2.9 11.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.7 7.2 6.9 – Net Position: 0 -481 481 – Gross Longs: 8,425 326 1,263 – Gross Shorts: 8,425 807 782 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.3 2.9 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.8 -23.4 -0.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
GOLD – The week ahead from KOG

GOLD – The week ahead from KOG

Knights of Gold Knights of Gold 27.03.2022 20:13
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/2YHOJMDX-XAUUSD-KOG-Report/KOG Report:In last weeks KOG Report we said we were expecting a big move on the horizon which may throw a lot of traders of course. Instead, we got majority of the week in the range and then a break just slightly above towards the end of the week. We got the push up into the 1930s price level which gave a great short into one of the targets we suggested being 1910. We managed to guide trades through the range and managed a fantastic week netting over 300pips on Gold alone. Not to mention the other pairs that hit targets at Camelot.So what can we expect in the week ahead?We’re going to keep it short this week with a plan to go long but, we want to see how the market opens. We have an area in mind which is around the 1985 price mark, but we want to see if this pushes up in the early sessions and tests that 1960-65 region first! We can see here that we have broken out of the range but only slightly, that previous resistance level has now become support, a strong test on that support is needed and this needs to hold for this to go higher and challenge that 1985 level as the first target and above that 1997. So we’ll trade this with two scenarios in mind.Scenario 1:Price come down on opening sessions and tests that lower support region which is also the top of the previous range between 1945-50. We don’t want the price to close and hold below this level, we want to see a quick visit and rejection here. IF we do get the support, we want then we will be looking to go long up towards the 1965 region first and above that 1985. The higher region and target of 1997 is where we want to see a reaction on price and depending on that reaction, we may test the short trade there! If we hold below that support level and it becomes resistance again we will be waiting lower around the 1930-25 price point where again we will look for support and attempt to go long. We will update you as we go along during the week.Scenario 2:Price pushes up into 1960-65. We want to see it resist here and then hold above the 1950 level. As long as we get that retest we will then attempt the long trade back up into those levels. This scenario only works on the retest as we don’t want to short for 100pips back down into major support. So please wait for confirmation on the trade. Again, breaking and closing below that level and we will wait lower to go long which we will update you on. Both these scenarios are effective if the price stays above the support level which was previous resistance. This week is going to be really important, it’s the end of the month, financial year and the quarter. There is going to be a lot of volume in the markets with institutions covering positions and wanting to close out of positions. That move we were anticipating last week which will throw traders off may happen this week. Please tread carefully and control your lot sizes, always have a risk strategy in place and allow yourself time to manage your position. Before we go, we would like to wish all the mothers a happy mothers day and all our followers a great end to the weekend. We’ll be back tomorrow with an update.As always, trade safe.KOG
Terraform Labs - Liquidity Pool, SINGLE - dApp Available - DeFi Update (28/03-03/04/22)

Crypto - A "Financial Bubble" And Fictional Backup?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.03.2022 08:39
Bitcoin rose 9.1% over the past week, ending it around $46,100. Ethereum added 9.5%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten rose in price from 3.2% (XRP) to 27.4% (Cardano). The exception was Terra (-0.4%). Bitcoin broke the resistance According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 9.9% in a week, to $2.14 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index added 0.2% to 40.6%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index rose 18 points in a week to 49 and moved from "fear" to neutral. Bitcoin rose for the second week in a row against the backdrop of strengthening stock indices. On Sunday, BTC broke through strong resistance around $45,000, which reversed its downward movement several times in February and early March. The technical picture favors further gains as Bitcoin climbed above the 100-day moving average (MA) for the first time since early December and heads towards the 200-day MA ($48,200). Cryptos found new drivers for the growth The FxPro analyst team mentioned a possible driver of the uptrend in BTC are rumors about the intentions of the non-profit organization Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) to invest in bitcoin. On March 27, it became known that LFG bought more than $1.1 billion worth of coins to ensure the stability of the Terra USD (UST) algorithmic stablecoin. The best dynamics among altcoins was demonstrated by Cardano against the backdrop of the announcement of ADA staking by Coinbase crypto exchange. Meanwhile, well-known crypto critic Peter Schiff again criticized the cryptocurrency, comparing it to a financial bubble and calling it stupid for people to save their savings from inflation by buying BTC. According to Schiff, cryptocurrencies have no real value and are backed by people's trust in the same way as fiat currency.
Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen And Dollar (USD) Interactions. Dollar Index (DXY) Looks Quite Fine. A Year Full Of Fed Decisions...

Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen And Dollar (USD) Interactions. Dollar Index (DXY) Looks Quite Fine. A Year Full Of Fed Decisions...

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 28.03.2022 12:44
There has been a lot of talk lately about the decline of the US dollar's reserve status. However, investors and traders should separate long-term trends from short-term market impulses. Reserve fund managers often prefer to refrain from active selling so as not to cause unnecessary market turbulence, so all reserve trends are stretched out over decades. As long as there is no real threat to the existence of the dollar and the solvency of the US government, managers will avoid making active moves to sell dollar assets. And all the revolutionary changes, such as switching to national currencies, will only result in CBs buying fewer new dollars. But it has little effect on the exchange rate. Right now, we are seeing the opposite picture, as the main competitors are under pressure. Investors are getting rid of the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan accelerates its currency printing to buy bonds out of the market to stem rising yields. The local government is overburdened with debt, and the economy is still stalling. The only market solution is a devaluation of the yen, which would make exports from Japan more competitive and boost domestic spending. The single currency is suffering from a spike in energy prices and economic problems related to the war in Ukraine. Trading below 1.1000, the EURUSD pair is now where it was heading for the last six months before the pandemic. The medium-term outlook for the dollar is largely influenced by the extent to which the Fed will be able to implement policy tightening. More accurately, how Fed policy compares with the policy of the Bank of Japan, the ECB, or another major central bank. The Fed is clearly acting with greater amplitude, setting itself up for 7 rate hikes this year, which is far more than one would expect from Japan or the eurozone. Moreover, the US remains much further away from the war in Ukraine in business and trade terms than its biggest competitors, which means it can continue to benefit from capital inflows as a haven.
S&P 500 Has Been Moving Up For A While. What's Next?

S&P 500 Has Been Moving Up For A While. What's Next?

Paul Rejczak Paul Rejczak 28.03.2022 15:55
  Stocks extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, but this week we may see some more uncertainty and a possible profit-taking action. The S&P 500 index gained 0.53% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its short-term uptrend after breaking above the 4,500 level. It gained over 380 points from the Mar. 14 local low of around 4,162. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we may see another correction and a profit-taking action at some point. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but investors were recently jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the index is expected to open virtually flat after an overnight advance followed by its retracement. The nearest important resistance level is at around 4,550-4,600, marked by the previous local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450. The S&P 500 index trades closer to its January-February local highs along the 4,600 level, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Remains Above the 4,500 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It is trading close to the new local high. Potential resistance level is at around 4,585, marked by the previous highs. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. We are maintaining our profitable long position from the 4,340 level, as we are still expecting a bullish price action in the near-term. However, to protect our gain, we decided to move the stop-loss (take profit) and price target levels higher. (our premium Stock Trading Alert includes details of our trading position along with the stop-loss and profit target levels) (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely open virtually flat this morning. However, the futures contract retraced its overnight advance, so we may see more uncertainty and a potential profit-taking action. The war In Ukraine remains a negative factor for the markets. The global markets will also be waiting for this Friday’s monthly jobs data release. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index extended its uptrend on Friday; this morning the futures contract retreated from its new local high. We are maintaining our profitable long position (opened on Feb. 22 at 4,340), but we moved stop-loss (take profit) and price target levels higher. We are still expecting an advance from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Crypto trading volume exceeds $100 billion in 24 hours as bulls flock to the market

Crypto trading volume exceeds $100 billion in 24 hours as bulls flock to the market

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.03.2022 16:34
Proponents noted a 63.07% spike in the total transaction volume of cryptocurrencies across exchanges. Coinmarketcap data reveals a month-on-month increase of 4.75% in crypto trading volume. Bitcoin price crossed $47,000, fueled by $200 million shorts liquidated across exchanges. Bitcoin price is rallying, fueled by a frenzy of massive short liquidations on crypto exchanges. Proponents believe bulls have flocked to the market, as transaction volume exceeded $100 billion. Bitcoin price pushes past $47,000 in recent rally Bitcoin price crossed key resistance to hit a high above $47,000 in a rally fueled by the liquidation of millions of short positions. Analysts at the crypto intelligence platform Santiment observed a massive liquidation of shorts across exchanges at 1 pm and 6 pm UTC across crypto exchanges on March 27, 2022. Analysts argue that Bitcoin’s recent price rally to $47,000 was a response to liquidation in large quantities over the weekend. The average funding rate entered the long zone, where uncertainty among market participants increased. Therefore, analysts conclude that Bitcoin shorts have fueled the asset’s ongoing rally. Bitcoin and altcoin shorts liquidatedColin Wu, a Chinese journalist, reported a spike in the total transaction volume of cryptocurrencies, exceeding $100 billion over the past 24 hours. Wu referred to data from Coinmarketcap and observed a 63.07% increase in crypto transaction volume compared to March 26, 2022. The total crypto market value now exceeds $2.12 trillion. Historically, analysts have witnessed high transaction activity when large wallet investors flock to the market or scoop up crypto. Bloomberg analysts argue that Bitcoin looks overbought, compared to its 50-day Moving Average. Bitcoin price crossed key resistance at $45,000 in the current rally, erasing its losses for the year. FXStreet analysts have evaluated Bitcoin price and predicted the start of a new uptrend in the asset, as it crossed the $45,000 level.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: Shareholders to vote on TSLA stock split

Tesla Stock News and Forecast: Shareholders to vote on TSLA stock split

FXStreet News FXStreet News 28.03.2022 16:34
Tesla stock surges on news of a potential stock split dividend.TSLA is up at $1,066 of +5.6% in Monday premarket trading.Tesla stock has rallied sharply from early March lows.Tesla stock (TSLA) is back to the top of the social media chatter on Monday, usurping GameStop and AMC in the process. The stock is surging this morning on news of a potential stock split dividend. Tesla previously did a 5-for-1 stock split back in August 2020, and other companies have followed suit, notably Amazon. This makes it easier for retail investors to own the stock when it has a more affordable share price.Tesla Stock News: Stock split imminent?Tesla's board of directors has already approved the plan to split the shares for a stock dividend and will put it to a vote of the shareholders. The news was well-received by retail shareholders who tend to be more active in the premarket than other holders. A stock dividend is exactly what it sounds like. Instead of receiving cash, shareholders receive new shares in the company. This means companies do not use up cash to fund the dividend. Stock dividends are usually dilutive to earnings per share (EPS) as more shares are in issue after the event. Tesla is up nearly 6% before the open. It is not all plain sailing though for the EV giant as more Chinese covid lockdowns are announced. Tesla will close its Shanghai giga plant for at least a day on the back of lockdowns in the city. Tesla Stock ForecastA powerful rally with the next target now set at $1,210. This would set up Tesla's (TSLA) stock to break to all-time highs. Currently, on the longer-term time horizon, the narrative is still bearish with a series of lower highs and lower lows. So breaking $1,210 turns Tesla bullish on all time horizons. Naturally, it is already bullish in the short term after last week's strong rally. Holding above $945 is the key pivot for medium and long-term traders. TSLA 20-hour chartThere is a short-term pivot at $1,000, with high volume at this level. Below sees a volume gap to $945, the key as mentioned above. Tesla chart, 15-minute
Who Benefits Most From the Russia-Ukraine War?

Who Benefits Most From the Russia-Ukraine War?

Finance Press Release Finance Press Release 28.03.2022 17:25
With the unrest in the Black Sea basin, it appears that there are two more cross-trade wars in the world. These are about energy and currency.Crude oil prices, down most of Friday, finally ended the week higher after a huge fire broke out at oil facilities in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, following attacks by Yemeni rebels.The great winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly the United States, which now seems to be taking advantage of Europe’s moment of weakness.The latter is indeed currently switching its energy supplies from Russian natural gas (pipeline-transported) to the much more polluting and much more expensive US shale gas. The reasons are much higher extraction (fracking) and transportation costs since it requires additional processes such as liquefaction/degasification and the deployment of more port terminals that are able to provide such steps – also much more energy-consuming – linked to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies.(Source: ResearchGate.net)By doing so, the European Union is going to increase its dependence on the US whilst a new and stronger block (including Asia) emerges on the east side.As a result, we have already started to witness dedollarisation in international trade, with the petroyuan set to dethrone the heavily-printed petrodollar.No wonder that the US dollar supply surge has ended up triggering uncontrollable and probably still underestimated inflation. As a result, this monetary virus is spreading through the global economy at a faster pace than any other variant! WTI Crude Oil (CLK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGK22) Futures (May contract, daily chart)“Inflation is like toothpaste. Once it's out, you can hardly get it back in again. So, the best thing is not to squeeze too hard on the tube.” – Dr Karl Otto PöhlThat’s all folks for today. Happy trading!Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 28.03.2022 21:32
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.VIX – VOLATILITY S&P 500 INDEX – CBOE – DAILY CHARTSPY RALLIES +10%The SPY has enjoyed a sharp rally back up after touching its Fibonacci 1.618% support based on its 2020 Covid price drop. Money has been flowing back into stocks as investors seem to be adapting to the current geopolitical environment and the change in global central bank lending rate policy.Resistance on the SPY is the early January high near 475, while support remains solidly in place at 414. March marks the 2nd anniversary of the 2020 Covid low that SPY made at 218.26 on March 23, 2020.SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST - ARCA – DAILY CHARTBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY RECORD-HIGH $538,949!Berkshire Hathaway is up +20.01% year to date compared to the S&P 500 -4.68%. Berkshire’s Warren Buffet has also been on a shopping spree, and investors seem to be comforted that he is buying stocks again. Buffet reached a deal to buy insurer Alleghany (y) for $11.6 billion and purchased nearly a 15% stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $8 billion.These acquisitions seem to be well-timed as insurers and banks tend to benefit from rising interest rates, and Occidental generates the bulk of its cash flow from the production of crude oil.As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. With that said, Berkshire is a classic example of not fighting the market. As Berkshire continues to make new highs, its’ trend is up!BRK.A – BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. - NYSE – DAILY CHARTCOMMODITY DEMAND REMAINS STRONGInflation continues to run at 40-year highs, and it appears that it will take more than one FED rate hike to subdue prices. Since price is King, we definitely want to ride this trend and not fight it. It is always nice to buy on a pullback, but the energy markets at this point appear to be rising exponentially. The XOP ETF gave us some nice buying opportunities earlier at the Fibonacci 0.618% $71.78 and the 0.93% $93.13 of the COVID 2020 range high-low.Remember, the trend is your friend, as many a trader has gone broke trying to pick or sell a top before its time! Well-established uptrends like the XOP are perfect examples of how utilizing a trailing stop can keep a trader from getting out of the market too soon but still offer protection in case of a sudden trend reversal.XOP – SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORE & PRODUCT – ARCA – DAILY CHARTKNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDEDIt is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades last week, four of which have now hit their first profit target levels. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Furthermore, successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Crude Oil: not a one-way street, but still bulls in charge

Crude Oil: not a one-way street, but still bulls in charge

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 29.03.2022 09:50
Brent lost 7.7% to $106.4 on Monday on fears of a drop in demand due to a lockdown in Shanghai, China's financial hub. In addition, the Saudi and Yemeni cease-fire and the upcoming Ukraine-Russia talks in Turkey helped reduce the heat on the energy market.However, Monday's decline looks like only a temporary respite, and all these factors are still too weak to break the momentum that has been sustained since December. Brent has gained 2% since Tuesday morning to $108.5, with buyers buoyed by reports that Saudi Arabia might raise the selling price of its Oil by as much as 5% in May. The pipeline accident in the Caspian Sea and falling exports from Russia are also on the side of oil bulls right now.OPEC has denied plans to accelerate quota increases at its next monthly meeting on 31 March. Cartel officials also note that it is not yet possible to replace Oil from Russia entirely.Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear programme talks have taken a few steps back, removing hopes of a supply surge from the market.US oil producers are in no hurry to exploit market conditions. The number of working rigs is increasing, but no production increase has taken place so far, which has averaged 11.6 million barrels per day over the last six months. US commercial oil inventories are now 17.8% lower than a year ago.Oil has remained in a bull market even though its movements are no longer unidirectional. From a state of panic buying in early March, Oil has become more pragmatic. Its price now looks high compared with levels a year and two years ago, but from 2011 to 2014, it traded around current levels, with demand being notably weaker.A period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty is setting up a $100-120 Brent range in the coming weeks. A break in the upward trend will only occur with a final turn towards détente.
Bitcoin has become a leading indicator of investor sentiment

Bitcoin has become a leading indicator of investor sentiment

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 29.03.2022 08:51
BTC is up 4% on Monday, ending the day around $48K, and corrected by about 1% to $47.5K on Tuesday morning. Ethereum was up 1.8% in the last 24 hours to $3.4K. Terra is a leader of the day According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 1% over the day, to $2.15 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell by 0.1 points to 42.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed rose by 11 points over the day, to 60, and moved from neutral level to the "greed" grade. On Tuesday, the index dropped to 56 points. Among the leading altcoins, Terra soared by 10%, Doge corrected by 2%. In most others, there is a slight correction in the growth of the last days, but they are in positive territory over the last day. Bitcoin continued to rise on Monday after it broke through the strong resistance of the February highs around $45K in the previous evening. By the end of the day, BTC has renewed the highs of early January above $48K, having won back the decline since the beginning of the year. Bitcoin is correlating with S&P500 The growth of the first cryptocurrency rested on the 200-day moving average ($48.2K). Confident consolidation above it promises to strengthen and expand the growth of the entire crypto market and breathe fresh impetus into the growth of bitcoin. In December, we saw a false break, but then the price levels were higher, and corrective sentiment intensified in the stock markets. Now Bitcoin is growing along with the rise of stock indices and often even acts as a leading indicator of investor sentiment. According to Arcane Research, BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 stock indicator recently hit a 17-month high. According to CoinShares, institutions invested $193 million in crypto funds last week, and it was the most significant amount in three months. Glassnode believes that the Bitcoin trend has already changed to bullish, as evidenced by the increase in the number of addresses accumulating BTC.
US ADP Employment March Preview: Private job creation slows while yield curve flattens

US ADP Employment March Preview: Private job creation slows while yield curve flattens

FXStreet News FXStreet News 29.03.2022 16:43
US ADP payrolls are foreseen at 438K in March, NFP at 475K.US yield curve is flattening, rings recession alarm amid 50-bps May Fed rate hike bets.Fed Chair Powell believes the labor market is strong enough, recession unlikely.The US private sector hiring is seen slowing in March after the American companies added more jobs than expected in February. The US ADP private employment report, due on Wednesday at 12.15 GMT, usually provides a good hint at Friday’s full jobs report, so investors will be looking for clues on any potential labor market slowdown.Pace of jobs creation slows in the USThe Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is forecast to show that US companies have created 438,00 new jobs in March, less than the previous month’s addition of 475,000. In February, business payrolls rose more than the expected 375,000 figure. ADP’s payroll data represent firms employing nearly 26 million workers in the US and its monthly release shows the employment change in the economy.Source: FXStreetOn Friday, the US Labor Department will release the Nonfarm Payrolls, which is expected to show that the economy has likely added 475,000 new jobs in March after a surprise increase of 678,000 reported in February.The Automatic Data Processing ADP jobs report is usually considered a proxy to the official Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which will be released on Friday, April 1.The disparity between the two indicators in recent months, however, makes the ADP result unreliable to gauge the NFP trend and, therefore, could have a limited market impact.US yield curve flattens, Fed remains hawkishHeading into the monthly payrolls data, the Russia-Ukraine conflict rages on while the odds of a 50-basis points (bps) Fed rate hike in May almost appears a done deal.Against this backdrop, the yields on the US Treasuries have rallied to three-year highs, although the increase in the longer-dated yields has failed to match the pace of the advance in the shorter ones. The spread between the two- and 10-year yields narrowed to its lowest since early 2020 on Tuesday. The flattening of the yield curve is usually indicative of a likely recession, as investors remain worried that the aggressive Fed’s tightening would damage the US economy over the longer term.At the March FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the labor market is strong enough that a recession is unlikely. Although Powell remains optimistic about the economy and labor market, he said in his speech last week, “this is a labor market that is out of balance," adding "we need the labor market to be sustainably tight."To concludeMarkets are pricing in a roughly 60% chance of a 50-bps rate hike at the Fed’s May meeting.A slowdown in the hiring pace in the world’s biggest economy could likely feed the risks of a recession, especially in the face of soaring inflation. This could pour cold water on the recent Fed’s hawkishness.The ADP report, however, is unlikely to have any major impact on the US dollar and other related markets. Friday’s NFP release will hold the key to gauging the Fed’s policy action going forward.
Crypto Focus: Another Week of Solid Gains and Heavy Selling

Crypto Focus: Another Week of Solid Gains and Heavy Selling

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 01.04.2022 10:10
This week got off to a similar start as last, with buyers controlling momentum for the first four days of trade. Friday saw a heavy fade set up with half of the week’s gains cut on the top 10 and top 25 indexes after seeing just over 10% of gains to the week’s high. Some headlines have come out where Bitcoin has briefly moved back above 48K. Ethereum is set for an upgrade, and it’s being called a merge. This will be a joining of mainnet and the beacon chain proof-of-stake system. The ‘merge’ will mark the end of proof-of-work (PoW) for Ethereum in favour of the proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism. This is due in the second quarter of 2022. Ronin hack, around 600 million was stolen from the Ronin network. A blockchain associated with the popular pay-to-earn game Axie Infinity. This was one of the largest hacks in Crypto history. Around 173,600 Ether and 25.5 stable coins were taken. Looking at this weekend and next week’s session, we are wondering if the current fade is short term or if something deeper is happening here. This is the third straight week of solid gains before heavy selling developed. Following on from the fade, Ripple is in an interesting position. Price failed at key resistance and has made a breakthrough the fast uptrend. Price bounced off the main uptrend but, for now, sits in no man’s land. A hold after the test of the main trend line could set up a new continuation higher, but if we see a break of the main trend line, this could suggest that a deeper correction could be underway. The post Crypto Focus: Another Week of Solid Gains and Heavy Selling appeared first on Eightcap.
Currency Speculators continue Japanese Yen bearishness, push bearish bets to 20-week high

Currency Speculators continue Japanese Yen bearishness, push bearish bets to 20-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 02.04.2022 19:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the increase of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Japanese yen speculators raised their bearish bets for a third straight week this week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Over this five-week time-frame, yen bets have now dropped by a total of -38,944 contracts, going from -63,187 net positions on February 22nd to -102,131 net positions this week. This weakness in speculator sentiment has pushed the current Yen positioning to the most bearish level in the past twenty weeks, dating back to November 9th when net positions over over -105,000 contracts. Since the new year, yen speculator positions have averaged -70,432 weekly contracts, underscoring the sentiment weakness and compared to the 2021 weekly positions average of -44,182 contracts (positions averaged +17,100 weekly contracts in 2020). Japanese yen prices have also been extremely weak versus the other major currencies. Currently, the yen has recorded losses against all of the majors year-to-date and many majors currencies are trading at the highest levels since 2015 versus the yen. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,306 contracts), Australian dollar (1,583 contracts), Brazil real (1,052 contracts), Canadian dollar (3,405 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,804 contracts). The currencies with declining bets this week were the Japanese yen (-23,649 contracts), Euro (-2,469 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,155 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,826 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-3,387 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-271 contracts). Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 53,967 76 30,941 79 -35,106 16 4,165 62 EUR 662,415 67 21,374 42 -47,348 62 25,974 17 GBP 224,365 54 -40,070 45 52,009 60 -11,939 31 JPY 239,698 82 -102,131 3 124,850 98 -22,719 7 CHF 44,327 20 -11,579 50 23,228 57 -11,649 29 CAD 147,421 28 -1,535 46 -15,518 48 17,053 64 AUD 143,007 39 -49,606 39 40,894 49 8,712 74 NZD 34,881 15 -867 70 -3 30 870 62 MXN 157,779 30 -8,247 24 3,286 74 4,961 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 78,894 79 42,616 92 -45,623 7 3,007 100 Bitcoin 12,024 66 -271 89 -411 0 682 28   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,635 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.3 2.8 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.0 67.8 2.8 – Net Position: 30,941 -35,106 4,165 – Gross Longs: 44,970 1,493 5,684 – Gross Shorts: 14,029 36,599 1,519 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.2 16.3 62.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 10.7 -21.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,374 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,843 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 55.0 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.0 62.1 8.2 – Net Position: 21,374 -47,348 25,974 – Gross Longs: 200,043 364,163 80,321 – Gross Shorts: 178,669 411,511 54,347 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.6 62.3 17.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 10.7 -19.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.6 73.3 9.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 50.1 15.2 – Net Position: -40,070 52,009 -11,939 – Gross Longs: 30,624 164,519 22,187 – Gross Shorts: 70,694 112,510 34,126 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 60.4 30.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.5 29.1 -14.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -102,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -23,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,482 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 83.9 8.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.0 31.8 18.0 – Net Position: -102,131 124,850 -22,719 – Gross Longs: 15,274 201,190 20,392 – Gross Shorts: 117,405 76,340 43,111 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.5 98.2 7.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.7 19.1 -5.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,424 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.4 73.2 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.5 20.8 45.5 – Net Position: -11,579 23,228 -11,649 – Gross Longs: 3,292 32,430 8,522 – Gross Shorts: 14,871 9,202 20,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.7 57.0 29.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 4.9 -7.3   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,940 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 52.1 24.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.0 62.6 13.4 – Net Position: -1,535 -15,518 17,053 – Gross Longs: 32,429 76,738 36,771 – Gross Shorts: 33,964 92,256 19,718 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 48.3 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.3 -0.3 28.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -49,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,189 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 56.6 18.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.4 28.0 12.7 – Net Position: -49,606 40,894 8,712 – Gross Longs: 33,960 80,885 26,806 – Gross Shorts: 83,566 39,991 18,094 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.8 49.4 73.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 34.4 -42.4 48.0   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,520 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.4 44.5 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.9 44.5 8.0 – Net Position: -867 -3 870 – Gross Longs: 15,504 15,507 3,666 – Gross Shorts: 16,371 15,510 2,796 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.8 30.4 61.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.2 -18.5 40.7   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,051 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.6 46.9 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.8 44.8 1.7 – Net Position: -8,247 3,286 4,961 – Gross Longs: 75,081 73,952 7,577 – Gross Shorts: 83,328 70,666 2,616 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.8 74.2 64.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 6.4 8.0   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 42,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,564 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.3 26.2 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.2 84.0 2.3 – Net Position: 42,616 -45,623 3,007 – Gross Longs: 53,065 20,649 4,805 – Gross Shorts: 10,449 66,272 1,798 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.3 6.8 100.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.5 -18.9 6.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 0 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.9 3.2 10.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 83.1 6.6 5.2 – Net Position: -271 -411 682 – Gross Longs: 9,722 383 1,302 – Gross Shorts: 9,993 794 620 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.5 8.5 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.2 -15.9 5.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.04.2022 21:41
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 22/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,355 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions of 3,794 contracts and an increase in short positions of 2,539 contracts. There was a significant decrease in the total net positions of large speculators in the Canadian dollar last week, which fell by 22,690 contracts. At the same time, total net positions of large speculators moved from bullish to overall bearish sentiment for the first time in 10 weeks. The rise in total net positions of large speculators occurred only in the euro last week. There was a decline in total net positions in the other currencies monitored. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.   Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987 Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish         Total Change -41281 -11922 3077 -14999     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 23,843 contracts last week, up by 5,049 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,011 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 38 contracts. These data suggest bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest fell by 7,193 contracts last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and is therefore a weak trend. The euro continues to move in a downtrend. It returned to a resistance level last week, which could be an opportunity to trade short.  Long-term resistance: 1.1120 – 1.1150. Support: 1.080-1.0850. The next support is at 1.0650-1.0700. The support can b also a value around 1.0900.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish         Total Change -2236 -11956 16743 -28699     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,244 contracts, down by 8,183 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 311 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,494 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been a further decline. Open interest rose by 7,389 contracts last week. This means that the modest rise in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and is therefore strong. However, the pound's growth was not significant. In addition, a pin bar formed on the weekly chart which would suggest more of a further weakening in line with sentiment. Long-term resistance: 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish         Total Change -68636 6424 -28128 34552     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 51,189 contracts, down by 6,333 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 534 contracts and an increase in short positions by 5,799 contracts. This data suggests a continuation of bearish sentiment in the Australian dollar. Last week there was an increase in open interest of 3,246 contracts. This means that the upward move that occurred last week was supported by the volume and was therefore strong as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar strengthened strongly again last week and reached a significant resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.7510-0.7560                                                                                                               Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A strong support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish         Total Change -19621 -12 -12898 12886     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 2,520 contracts last week, down by 1,133 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 4,337 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 3,204 contracts. This data suggests that there was a weakening of bullish sentiment in the New Zealand dollar last week. Open interest fell by 3,944 contracts last week. Therefore, the upward movement in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and reached the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.6980 – 0.7000 Long-term support: 0.6860-0.6920 and the next support is at 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

Invest Macro Invest Macro 09.04.2022 20:09
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further retreat of bearish bets in the Australian currency futures contracts. Australian dollar speculators reduced their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over this seven-week time-frame, Aussie bets have improved by a total of +49,181 contracts, going from -86,694 net positions on February 15th to -37,513 net positions this week. This improvement in speculator sentiment has brought the current net position (-37,513 contracts) to the least bearish level of the past thirty-seven weeks, dating back to July 20th when the net position totaled -35,690 contracts. The speculator level for the Aussie has not registered a bullish or positive net weekly position since May 18th of 2021, a span of forty-seven weeks. Despite the bearish level of speculators, the AUD has been one of the stronger currencies over the past month and has been helped along by the outlook that the Reserve Bank of Australia will start to raise interest rates for the first time since 2010. The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (911 contracts), Australian dollar (12,093 contracts), Mexican peso (9,157 contracts), Euro (5,996 contracts), Brazil real (2,910 contracts), Canadian dollar (8,458 contracts) and Bitcoin (27 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-1,698 contracts), Swiss franc (-814 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,688 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-702 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-263 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-05-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 49,049 65 31,852 81 -35,194 16 3,342 53 EUR 663,589 67 27,370 43 -49,617 62 22,247 11 GBP 238,266 63 -41,758 44 57,779 64 -16,021 22 JPY 242,217 83 -103,829 2 125,224 98 -21,395 10 CHF 40,005 14 -12,393 48 20,743 54 -8,350 39 CAD 157,562 35 6,923 54 -30,414 38 23,491 77 AUD 148,898 44 -37,513 50 22,332 36 15,181 89 NZD 35,788 16 -1,569 69 171 31 1,398 68 MXN 172,712 36 910 28 -5,778 70 4,868 64 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 65,870 61 45,526 95 -47,961 4 2,435 93 Bitcoin 11,374 61 -244 89 -397 0 641 28   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,941 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.7 2.9 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.7 74.6 3.9 – Net Position: 31,852 -35,194 3,342 – Gross Longs: 41,038 1,417 5,243 – Gross Shorts: 9,186 36,611 1,901 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.7 16.1 53.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 10.3 -21.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,374 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.8 53.8 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.7 61.3 8.4 – Net Position: 27,370 -49,617 22,247 – Gross Longs: 210,914 357,140 77,946 – Gross Shorts: 183,544 406,757 55,699 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.4 61.7 11.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 13.7 -27.3   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -41,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,070 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.1 73.6 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 49.4 15.1 – Net Position: -41,758 57,779 -16,021 – Gross Longs: 35,873 175,429 19,923 – Gross Shorts: 77,631 117,650 35,944 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.9 63.9 22.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 28.2 -24.4   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -103,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,131 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.0 84.7 7.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 33.0 16.8 – Net Position: -103,829 125,224 -21,395 – Gross Longs: 14,583 205,209 19,190 – Gross Shorts: 118,412 79,985 40,585 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.4 98.4 10.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.7 21.2 -4.3   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,579 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.6 73.5 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.6 21.6 42.6 – Net Position: -12,393 20,743 -8,350 – Gross Longs: 1,860 29,392 8,694 – Gross Shorts: 14,253 8,649 17,044 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.4 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 54.2 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 1.8 -0.7   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,535 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.7 49.4 26.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.3 68.7 11.1 – Net Position: 6,923 -30,414 23,491 – Gross Longs: 37,325 77,906 40,906 – Gross Shorts: 30,402 108,320 17,415 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.4 37.6 76.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.3 -11.7 37.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,606 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 53.9 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.6 38.9 11.5 – Net Position: -37,513 22,332 15,181 – Gross Longs: 34,871 80,207 32,313 – Gross Shorts: 72,384 57,875 17,132 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 35.5 89.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 43.2 -55.1 66.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -867 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.1 44.3 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.5 43.8 8.1 – Net Position: -1,569 171 1,398 – Gross Longs: 15,428 15,863 4,311 – Gross Shorts: 16,997 15,692 2,913 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 30.7 67.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.7 -21.2 43.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,247 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.6 49.6 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.1 53.0 1.6 – Net Position: 910 -5,778 4,868 – Gross Longs: 78,728 85,690 7,698 – Gross Shorts: 77,818 91,468 2,830 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.7 70.4 63.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 6.4 2.8   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,616 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.7 16.4 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6 89.2 2.9 – Net Position: 45,526 -47,961 2,435 – Gross Longs: 50,518 10,795 4,319 – Gross Shorts: 4,992 58,756 1,884 – Long to Short Ratio: 10.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.1 4.5 93.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.7 -20.4 -2.4   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -271 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.5 3.8 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.6 7.3 6.0 – Net Position: -244 -397 641 – Gross Longs: 8,811 437 1,322 – Gross Shorts: 9,055 834 681 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.1 9.6 27.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 -11.3 2.3   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:40
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/3/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,306 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,409 contracts and an increase in short positions by 103 contracts. Growth in total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. There were declines in the total net positions of large speculators in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. In the Japanese yen, in particular, the decline in total net positions of large speculators has been very strong. Over the past five weeks, total net positions have decreased by 38 944 contracts. The total net positions of large speculators are the most bearish for the yen in the last 20 weeks. This may be due to the Bank of Japan's continuing dovish monetary policy to support Japanese economic growth. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.   Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Mar 29, 2022 30941 21374 -40070 -49606 -867 -102131 1535 -11579 Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248 Feb 22, 2022 36084 59306 -5809 -84080 -11551 -63187 9253 -10987   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 662415 200043 178669 21374 3598 -7008 -4539 2469 Weak bullish Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish Feb 22, 2022 696682 214195 154889 59306 -5365 -3704 -15429 11725 Bullish         Total Change -39632 -17856 8351 -26207     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 21,374 contracts last week, down by 2,469 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 7,008 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,539 contracts. This data indicates weak bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest has risen by 3 598 contracts in the last week. This shows that the upward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by a volume and is therefore strong price action. The euro continues to move in a downtrend. Last week it returned to the resistance level from which it bounced downwards. Long-term resistance: 1.1160 – 1.1180 Support: 1.0950-1.0980 and the next support is at 1.080-1.0850.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 224365 30624 70694 -40070 28653 -2129 697 -2826 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 188443 42249 48058 -5809 -6859 -7902 144 -8046 Bearish         Total Change 29063 -19527 22780 -42307     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,244 contracts, down by 8,183 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 311 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,494 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been a further decline. Open interest rose by 7,389 contracts last week. This means that the modest rise in the pound that occurred last week was supported by the volume and is therefore strong. However, the pound's growth was not significant. In addition, a pin bar formed on the weekly chart which would suggest more of a further weakening in line with sentiment. Long-term resistance: 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 143007 33960 83566 -49606 15240 10213 8630 1583 Weak bearish Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish Feb 22, 2022 192579 11553 95633 -84080 1 -139 -2753 2614 Weak bearish         Total change -49571 22268 -14820 37088     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 49,606 contracts last week, having grown by 1,583 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth of long positions by 10,213 contracts and the growth of short positions by 8,630 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but they increased last week. There was an increase in open interest of 15,240 contracts last week. This means that the sideways movement that occurred last week was supported by the volume and was therefore strong as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar moved near a strong resistance level last week. If it is validly broken then a further bullish movement may be seen.  Long-term resistance: 0.7510-0.7560                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A next support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish Feb 22, 2022 56636 17343 28894 -11551 -7469 -7580 -5362 -2218 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish         Total Change -29224 -9419 -17885 8466     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to - 867 contracts, having fallen by 3,387 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,652 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,735 contracts. This data suggests that there was a bearish sentiment for the New Zealand dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators got negative. Open interest fell by 375 contracts last week.  Therefore, the sideways move in the NZDUSD that occurred last week was not supported by a volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZDUSD strengthened strongly last week and got to the resistance level. Long-term resistance: 0.6980 – 0.7000 Long-term support: 0.6860-0.6880 and the next support is at 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
The Swing Overview - Week 14 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 14 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:41
The Swing Overview - Week 14 Equity indices weakened last week on news of rising interest rates and a tightening of the US economy. The euro is also weakening not only because it is under pressure from the ongoing war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, but also from the uncertainty of the upcoming French presidential election. The outbreak of the coronavirus in China has fuelled negative sentiment in oil, where the market fears an excess of supply over demand. The US dollar was the clear winner in this environment.  The USD index strengthens along with US bond yields According to the US Fed meeting minutes released on Wednesday, the Fed is prepared to reduce its balance sheet by the USD 95 billion per month from May this year.  In addition, the Fed is ready to raise interest rates at a pace of 0.50%. Thus, at the next meeting, which will take place in May, we can expect a rate increase from the current 0.50% to 1.00%. This option is already included in asset prices.     As a result of this the yields on US 10-year bonds continued to rise and has already reached 2.64%. The US dollar in particular is benefiting from this development and is approaching the level 100. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices under pressure from high interest rates The prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes is having a negative impact on investor sentiment, particularly for growth stocks. However, it is positive for financial sector stocks. High yields on the US bonds are attractive to investors, who will thus prefer this yield to, for example, investments in gold, which does not yield any interest. Figure 2: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The US SP 500 index is currently moving in a downward correction, which is shown on the H4 chart. Prices could move in a downward channel that is formed by a lower high and a lower low. The SP 500 according to the H4 chart is below the SMA 100 moving average, which also indicates bearish tendencies.   The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is in the range of 4,513 - 4,520. The next resistance is around 4,583 - 4,600. A support is at 4 450 - 4 455.   German DAX index A declining channel has also formed for the DAX index. The price is below the SMA 100 moving average on the H4 chart, where at the same time the SMA 100 got below the EMA 50, which is a strong bearish signal. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the nearest resistance is in the range between 14,340 - 14,370. There is also a confluence with the moving average EMA 50 here. The next resistance is at 14,590 - 14,630. A support is at 14,030 - 14,100.   The DAX is influenced by the upcoming French presidential election, the outcome of which could have a major impact on the European economy.    The euro remains in a downtrend The Euro is negatively affected by the sanctions against Russia, which will also have a negative impact on the European economy. In addition, uncertainty has arisen regarding the French presidential election. Although the victory of the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen over the defending President Emmanuel Macron is still unlikely, the polls suggest that it is within the statistical margin of error. And this makes markets nervous.   A Le Pen victory would be bad for the economy and France's overall international image. It would weaken the European Union. That's why this news sent the euro below 1.09. The first round of elections will be held on Sunday April 10 and the second round on April 24, 2022.    Figure 4: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.0930 - 1.0950. The significant resistance according to the daily chart is 1.1160 - 1.1190.  A support is at 1.080 - 1.0850.   According to the technical analysis, the euro is in a downtrend, but as it is currently at significant support levels, any short speculation could be considered only after the current support is broken and retested to validate the break.   The crude oil continues to descend The oil prices fell for a third straight day after the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) announced it would release 60 million barrels of its members' reserves to the open market, adding to an earlier reserve release of 180 million barrels announced by the United States. In total, 240 million barrels would be delivered to the market over six months, resulting in a net inflow of 1.33 million barrels a day.   That would be more than triple the monthly production additions of 400,000 barrels per day by the world's oil producers under the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and controlled by Russia.   Adding to the negative sentiment on oil was a coronavirus outbreak in Shanghai, the largest in two years, which forced a more than week-long closure of China's second-largest city. This raises concerns about demand among oil consumers in the Chinese economy, which has a significant impact on prices. Figure 5: Brent crude oil on the H4 and daily charts. Brent crude oil is thus approaching support, which according to the H4 chart is at around USD 97-99 per barrel. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at the price of USD 106 per barrel. The more significant resistance is at USD 111-112 per barrel of the Brent crude.   
The Swing Overview - Week 13 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 13 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 06:41
The Swing Overview - Week 13 Equity indices closed the first quarter of 2022 in a loss under the influence of geopolitical tensions. The Czech koruna strengthened as a result of the CNB raising interest rates to 5%, the highest since 2001. The US supports the oil market by releasing 180 million barrels from its strategic reserves. War in Ukraine   The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than a month and there is still no end in sight. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations have not led to a result yet. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin has decided that European countries will pay for Russian gas in rubles. This has been described as blackmailing from Europe's point of view and is not in line with the gas supply contracts that have been concluded. A way around this is to open an account with Gazprombank where the gas can be paid for in euros. Geopolitical tensions are therefore still ongoing and are having a negative effect on stock markets.   Equity indices have had their worst quarter since 2020 US and European equities posted their biggest quarterly loss since the beginning of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out and the global economy was in crisis. Portfolio rebalancing at the end of the quarter boosted demand for bonds and kept yields lower.   On Tuesday, the yield curve briefly inverted, meaning that short-term bonds yields were higher than  long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is a signal of a recession according to many economists. It means that future corporate profits should be rather behind expectations and stock prices might reflect it.    On Thursday, the S&P 500 index fell 1.6%. The Dow Jones industrial index also fell by 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 1.5%. The European STOXX 600 index closed down by 0.94%. Even after last week's rally, as investors celebrated signs of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the S&P 500 index is still down 5% for the first three months, its worst quarterly performance in two years.  Figure 1: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The SP 500 index reached the resistance level at 4,600, which it broke, but then closed below it. This indicates a false break. The new nearest resistance is in the range of 4,625 - 4,635. Support is at 4,453 and then significant support is at 4,386 - 4,422.   German DAX index The DAX index has rallied since March 8 and has reached the resistance level which is in the 14,800 - 15,000 range.  However, the index started to weaken in the second half of the week. The news that Russia will demand payments for gas in rubles, which Western countries refuse, contributed to the index's weakening. The fear of gas supply disruption then caused a sell-off.    Figure 2: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Resistance is between 14,800 - 15,000 according to the daily chart. The nearest support according to the H4 chart is at 14,100 - 14,200.   The euro remains in a downtrend The euro was supported at the beginning of the week by hopes for peace in Ukraine. However, by the end of the week, the Ukrainian President warned that Russia was preparing for more attacks and the Euro started to weaken. News of Russia's demand to pay for gas in rubles had a negative effect on the euro as well. Figure 3: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. From a technical point of view, we can see that the EURUSD according to the daily chart has reached the resistance formed by EMA 50 (yellow line). The new horizontal resistance is in the area of 1.1160 - 1.1180. Support is at 1.0950 - 1.0980. The euro still remains in a downtrend.   CNB raised the interest rate In the fight against the inflation, the CNB decided to further raise the interest rate by 0.50%. Currently, the base rate is at 5%, where it was last in 2001. The interest rate hike is aimed at slowing inflation by slowing demand through higher borrowing costs.   Figure 4: Interest rate developments in the Czech Republic In addition, a strong koruna should support the slowdown in inflation. The koruna could appreciate especially against the euro due to higher interest rates. However, the strengthening of the koruna is conditional on the war in Ukraine not escalating further.  We can see that the koruna against the euro is approaching a support around 24.30. The low of this year was 24.10 korunas for one euro. Figure 5: USD/CZK and EUR/CZK on the daily chart. The koruna is also strengthening against the US dollar. Here, however, the situation is slightly different in that the US Fed is also raising rates and is expected to continue raising rates until the end of the year. Therefore, the interest rate differential between the koruna and the dollar is less favourable than between the koruna and the euro. The appreciation of the koruna against the dollar is therefore slower.   Currently, the koruna is at the support of 22 koruna per dollar. The next support is at 21.70 and then 21.10 koruna per dollar, where this year's low is.   Oil has weakened Oil prices saw the deep losses after the news that the United States will release up to 180 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserves as part of measures to reduce fuel prices. US crude oil fell 5.4% and Brent crude oil fell 6.6% on Thursday after the news. Figure 6: Brent crude oil on a monthly and daily chart We can see that a strong bearish pinbar was formed on a  monthly chart. The nearest support is in the zone 103 – 106 USD per barel. A strong support is around 100 USD per barel which will be closely watched.  
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 11.04.2022 22:12
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/4/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 911 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 3,932 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,843 contracts. The growth in total net positions occurred last week in the euro, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. There were declines in the total net positions of large speculators in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Interest rate decisions will be made by the central banks of New Zealand and Canada (Wednesday) and the ECB on Thursday this week. The published monetary policy of these banks will be the decisive driver for the NZD, the CAD and the EUR this week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Apr 05, 2022 31852 27370 -41758 -37513 -1569 -103829 6923 -12393 Mar 29, 2022 30941 21374 -40070 -49606 -867 -102131 1535 -11579 Mar 22, 2022 29635 23843 -37244 -51189 2520 -78482 -4940 -8424 Mar 15, 2022 28380 18794 -29061 -44856 3653 -62340 17740 -5229 Mar 08, 2022 34044 58844 -12526 -78195 -12379 -55856 7646 -9710 Mar 01, 2022 34774 64939 -337 -78336 -14172 -68732 14140 -15248   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 663589 210914 183544 27370 1174 10871 4875 5996 Bullish Mar 29, 2022 662415 200043 178669 21374 3598 -7008 -4539 2469 Weak bullish Mar 22, 2022 658817 207051 183208 23843 -7193 5011 -38 5049 Bullish Mar 15, 2022 666010 202040 183246 18794 -72980 -40643 -593 -40050 Weak bullish Mar 08, 2022 738990 242683 183839 58844 19015 14298 20393 -6095 Weak bullish Mar 01, 2022 719975 228385 163446 64939 23293 14190 8557 5633 Bullish         Total change -33093 -3281 28655 -31936     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of large speculators reached 27 370 contracts last week and they were up by 5 996 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 10,871 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,875 contracts. These data indicates a bullish sentiment for the euro. Open interest has risen by 1,174 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by a volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The euro keeps moving in a downtrend. Last week it again reached a strong support in the area around 1.0850. Long-term resistance: 1.0950 – 1.0980.  The next resistance is in the zone 1.1160 – 1.1180. Support: 1.080-1.0850   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 238266 35873 77631 -41758 13901 5249 6937 -1688 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 224365 30624 70694 -40070 28653 -2129 697 -2826 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 195712 32753 69997 -37244 7389 311 8494 -8183 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 188323 32442 61503 -29061 -57989 -18540 -2005 -16535 Bearish Mar 08, 2022 246312 50982 63508 -12526 34443 3303 15492 -12189 Bearish Mar 01, 2022 211869 47679 48016 -337 23426 5430 -42 5472 Weak bearish         Total change 49823 -6376 29573 -35949     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached 41,758 contracts and thez were down by 1,688 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 5,249 contracts and the growth in short positions by 6,937 contracts. This suggests bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative while there has been their further decline. Open interest rose by 13,901 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by a volume and it is therefore strong. Long-term resistance: 1.3050 – 1.3070. The next resistance is in the zone 1.3270 – 1.3300. Support is near 1.3000. The next support is near 1.2900   The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 148898 34871 72384 -37513 5891 911 -11182 12093 Weak bearish Mar 29, 2022 143007 33960 83566 -49606 15240 10213 8630 1583 Weak bearish Mar 22, 2022 127767 23747 74936 -51189 3246 -534 5799 -6333 Bearish Mar 15, 2022 124521 24281 69137 -44856 -72573 4760 -28579 33339 Weak bearish Mar 08, 2022 197094 19521 97716 -78195 7427 6801 6660 141 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 189667 12720 91056 -78336 -2912 1167 -4577 5744 Weak bearish         Total change -43681 23318 -23249 46567     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 37,513 contracts, growing by 12,093 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 911 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 11,182 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment for the Australian dollar as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there was an increase in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 5,891 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week was supported by a volume and it was therefore a strong price action as new money flowed into the market. The Australian dollar formed a strong bearish pin bar last week. This could indicate further weakening of the AUD/USD pair. However, the pair is in a support area, so to speculate in the short direction it is necessary to wait for the pair to break this support and for a valid retest of the break. Long-term resistance: 0.7580-0.7660                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.7370-0.7440.  A next support is near 0.7160 – 0.7180.   The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Apr 05, 2022 35788 15428 16997 -1569 907 -76 626 -702 Bearish Mar 29, 2022 34881 15504 16371 -867 -375 -1652 1735 -3387 Bearish Mar 22, 2022 35256 17156 14636 2520 -3944 -4337 -3204 -1133 Weak bullish Mar 15, 2022 39200 21493 17840 3653 -14050 5718 -10314 16032 Bullish Mar 08, 2022 53250 15775 28154 -12379 2861 5290 3497 1793 Weak bearish Mar 01, 2022 50389 10485 24657 -14172 -6247 -6858 -4237 -2621 Bearish         Total change -20848 -1915 -11897 9982     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1   The total net positions of speculators last week reached to - 1 569 contracts, falling by 702 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 76 contracts and an increase in short positions by 626 contracts. This data suggests that bearish sentiment has set in in the New Zealand dollar over the past week, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative and they continue to fall Open interest rose by 907 contracts last week.  It means that the downward movement in NZDUSD that occurred last week was supported by a volume and therefore this price action was strong. Long-term resistance: 0.6860 – 0.6880. The next resistance is near 0.6980 – 0.7030 Long-term support: 0.6730 – 0.6740.   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

COT Currency Speculators drop their Japanese Yen bets to 183-week low

Invest Macro Invest Macro 16.04.2022 22:07
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further rise of bearish bets in the Japanese yen currency futures contracts. Yen speculators pushed their bearish bets higher for a fifth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over the past five weeks, yen bets have fallen by a total of -55,971 contracts, going from a total of -55,856 net positions on March 8th to a total of -111,827 net positions this week. Speculator positions have now slid all the way to the lowest standing of the past one hundred and eight-three weeks, dating back to October 9th of 2019. This recent weakness in yen positions and the yen price has taken place while open interest has been increasing which shows an accelerating downtrend as prices have been falling as more traders have been entering the market on the bearish side. The speculator strength index is also showing that the Japanese yen positions are at a bearish extreme position with the strength index at a zero percent level (strength index is the current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme). The fundamental backdrop has been the major driver of yen weakness. The Bank of Japan has continued on with its stimulus program and has not indicated any plans to move interest rates off their near-zero level while other central banks around the world have put the breaks on their stimulus actions and have started hiking their interest rates to try to tame inflationary pressures. The yen this week hit the lowest level in twenty years against the US dollar as the USDJPY currency pair trades above the 126.00 level. The other major currencies have all hit multi-year highs versus the yen as well. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (11,690 contracts), Brazil real (603 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,280 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,235 contracts), Bitcoin (411 contracts), Australian dollar (8,798 contracts) and the Mexican peso (14,050 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-2,215 contracts), Japanese yen (-7,998 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,549 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-11,296 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-12-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,836 78 29,637 77 -36,045 15 6,408 87 EUR 678,607 73 39,060 47 -60,750 59 21,690 10 GBP 246,152 68 -53,054 36 70,949 72 -17,895 19 JPY 245,403 86 -111,827 0 131,902 100 -20,075 13 CHF 41,231 16 -13,942 46 22,299 56 -8,357 39 CAD 155,390 34 12,158 59 -33,450 35 21,292 72 AUD 150,939 45 -28,715 58 17,876 32 10,839 79 NZD 37,585 20 -289 71 -429 30 718 60 MXN 175,905 38 14,960 34 -19,553 65 4,593 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 67,772 64 46,129 96 -48,954 4 2,825 98 Bitcoin 10,632 56 167 98 -439 0 272 19   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,852 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 2.2 15.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.7 68.0 3.6 – Net Position: 29,637 -36,045 6,408 – Gross Longs: 44,303 1,226 8,402 – Gross Shorts: 14,666 37,271 1,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.0 to 1 4.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 14.7 86.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 5.6 19.6   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,370 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.0 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 62.0 8.5 – Net Position: 39,060 -60,750 21,690 – Gross Longs: 221,645 359,853 79,165 – Gross Shorts: 182,585 420,603 57,475 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 58.6 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 9.7 -14.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,758 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.4 75.7 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.0 46.9 15.3 – Net Position: -53,054 70,949 -17,895 – Gross Longs: 35,514 186,343 19,803 – Gross Shorts: 88,568 115,394 37,698 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.8 71.6 18.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -38.0 33.6 -8.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -111,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,829 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 86.7 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 33.0 16.3 – Net Position: -111,827 131,902 -20,075 – Gross Longs: 9,925 212,850 20,022 – Gross Shorts: 121,752 80,948 40,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 12.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.5 25.5 -18.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,942 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,393 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.0 74.7 21.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.8 20.6 41.5 – Net Position: -13,942 22,299 -8,357 – Gross Longs: 1,642 30,798 8,742 – Gross Shorts: 15,584 8,499 17,099 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.6 55.9 38.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 1.6 -8.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,923 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.3 49.5 25.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 71.0 11.3 – Net Position: 12,158 -33,450 21,292 – Gross Longs: 37,724 76,922 38,796 – Gross Shorts: 25,566 110,372 17,504 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.8 35.4 72.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.0 -8.6 27.6   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,513 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.3 53.9 19.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.4 42.1 12.1 – Net Position: -28,715 17,876 10,839 – Gross Longs: 39,770 81,396 29,106 – Gross Shorts: 68,485 63,520 18,267 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.2 32.2 78.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 46.0 -52.2 49.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,569 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.4 45.9 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 47.0 8.1 – Net Position: -289 -429 718 – Gross Longs: 16,295 17,233 3,773 – Gross Shorts: 16,584 17,662 3,055 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 70.8 29.7 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.3 -25.5 30.2   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 910 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 48.8 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.9 59.9 1.7 – Net Position: 14,960 -19,553 4,593 – Gross Longs: 81,582 85,784 7,517 – Gross Shorts: 66,622 105,337 2,924 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 64.6 62.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.7 10.9 4.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,526 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.6 15.6 6.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 87.9 2.5 – Net Position: 46,129 -48,954 2,825 – Gross Longs: 52,624 10,591 4,496 – Gross Shorts: 6,495 59,545 1,671 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.7 3.5 97.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.2 3.3 10.9   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -244 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.2 3.6 10.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.6 7.7 7.4 – Net Position: 167 -439 272 – Gross Longs: 8,207 382 1,058 – Gross Shorts: 8,040 821 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 97.9 6.3 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 6.3 -3.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Crypto Focus: Another Choppy Week on the Markets

Crypto Focus: Another Choppy Week on the Markets

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 22.04.2022 14:44
It’s been a choppy week, with little direction at the end of it all on the top 10 and top 25. Both markets have seen plenty of action with decent ranges above and below the week’s open. As I write this early into Friday’s London session, sellers are now trying to get the upper hand. For now, the losses remain minor. Looking at the top 25, we saw 5.28% added to the upside and 5.77% to the downside (measuring the weekly bars high and low). Bitcoin and Ethereum both tracked closely to the top 10 and 25 indexes and were the two most significant coins edging lower after setting wide highs and lows. ETH is seeing plenty of support from 2980, and that level, for now, remains a key support point. Bitcoin continues to falter at 41,500. We are noting this level as strong resistance at this point. Fed policy remains a sensitive point for crypto traders as Friday morning’s news of a potential 50 point rate rise in May sent shock waves through major coins. This announcement definitely looks to have derailed or added to buyer worries as the fightback we had been seeing through the week stopped. Other news stated that the Treasury Department added BitRiver and ten of its subsidiaries, based in Russia, to its sanctions list. This coming week we still feel that FED policy looks to be the more sensitive issue regarding demand. Now that the news is out and being digested, could this lead to traders moving on from the shock and becoming a little more confident in buying, or could it continue to drive funds out of the top 10 and 25 coins? Some of this week’s big movers; Monero had another great week climbing to 281. Price gained 19.39% as demand remained thick for this coin. RookUSD KeeperDao is this weeks focus. We noticed the strong buying earlier in the week, and nothing changed by Friday’s session. Buyers are flocking to the coin, taking it back above USD$153, adding 34.52%! Price hit new 3-month highs this week after posting a second straight month of gains (at this point). Price has started to confirm a new trend after buyers beat resistance. If the new move can continue, we are looking at 167.60 as potential resistance. As long as we see new higher lows on the new pull back, we will continue to look for new moves higher, confirming the new uptrend. One pullback at resistance is fine, but we will want to see buyers break that level to really show that momentum is on the buyer side. The post Crypto Focus: Another Choppy Week on the Markets appeared first on Eightcap.
The Swing Overview - Week 16 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 16 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 22.04.2022 15:00
The Swing Overview - Week 16 Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed will be aggressive in fighting the inflation and confirmed tighter interest rate hikes starting in May. Equity indices fell strongly after this news. Inflation in the euro area reached a record high of 7.4% in March. Despite this news, the euro continued to weaken. The sell-off also continued in the Japanese yen, which is the weakest against the US dollar in last 20 years.  The USD index strengthens along with US bond yields Fed chief Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the Fed could raise interest rates by 0.50% in May. The Fed could continue its aggressive pace of rate hikes in the coming months of this year. US 10-year bond yields have responded to this news by strengthening further and have already reached 2.94%. The US dollar has also benefited from this development and has already surpassed the value 100 and continues to move in an uptrend. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart Earnings season is underway in equities Rising interest rates continue to weigh on equity indices, which gave back gains from the first half of the last week and weakened significantly on Thursday following the Fed’s information on the aggressive pace of interest rate hikes.   In addition, the earnings season, which is in full swing, is weighing on index movements. For example, Netflix and Tesla reported results last week.   While Netflix unpleasantly surprised by reducing the number of subscribers by 200,000 in 1Q 2022 and the company's shares fell by 35% in the wake of the news, Tesla, on the other hand, exceeded analysts' expectations and the stock gained more than 10% after the results were announced. Tesla has thus shown that it has been able to cope with the supply chain problems and higher subcontracting prices that are plaguing the entire automotive sector much better than its competitors.   The decline in Netflix subscribers can be explained by people starting to save more in an environment of rising prices. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart The SP 500 index continues to undergo a downward correction, which is shown on the H4 chart. The price has reached the resistance level at 4,514-4,520. The price continues to move below the SMA 100 moving average (blue line) on the daily chart which indicates bearish sentiment.  The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 4,514 - 4,520. The next resistance is around 4,583 - 4,600. The support is at 4,360 - 4,365.   The German DAX index The DAX is also undergoing a correction and the last candlestick on the daily chart is a bearish pin bar which suggests that the index could fall further. Figure 3: The German DAX index on H4 and daily chart This index is also below the SMA 100 on the daily chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The price has reached a support according to the H4 chart, which is at 14,340 - 14,370. However, this is very likely to be overcome quickly. The next support is 13 910 - 14 000. The nearest resistance is 14 592 - 14 632.   The DAX is affected by the French presidential election that is going to happen on Sunday April 24, 2022. According to the latest polls, Macron is leading over Le Pen and if the election turns out like this, it should not have a significant impact on the markets. However, if Marine Le Pen wins in a surprise victory, it can be very negative news for the French economy and would weigh on the DAX index as well.   The euro remains in a downtrend The Fed's hawkish policy and the ECB's dovish rhetoric at its meeting on Thursday April 14, 2022, which showed that the ECB is not planning to raise rates in the short term, put further pressure on the European currency. The French presidential election and, of course, the ongoing war in Ukraine are also causing uncertainty.  Figure 4: The EURUSD on the H4 and daily charts. The inflation data was reported last week, which came in at 7.4% on year-on-year basis. The previous month inflation was 5.9%. This rise in inflation caused the euro to strengthen briefly to the resistance level at 1.0930 - 1.0950. However, there was then a rapid decline from this level following the Fed's reports of a quick tightening in the economy. A support is at 1.0760 - 1.0780.   The sell-off in the Japanese yen is not over The Japanese yen is also under pressure. The US dollar has already reached 20-year highs against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) and it looks like the yen's weakening against the US dollar could continue. This is because the Bank of Japan has the most accommodative monetary policy of any major central bank and continues to support the economy while the Fed will aggressively tighten the economy. Thus, this fundamental suggests that a reversal in the USD/JPY pair should not happen anytime soon. Figure 5: The USDJPY on the monthly chart In terms of technical analysis, the USD/JPY price broke through the strong resistance band around the price of 126.00 seen on the monthly chart. The currency pair thus has room to grow further up to the resistance, which is in the area near 135 yens per dollar.  
COT Soft Commodities Speculators raising bullish bets for Soybean Oil as prices hit record high

COT Soft Commodities Speculators raising bullish bets for Soybean Oil as prices hit record high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 19:33
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the recent rises in Soybean Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the Soybean Oil futures has gained for three straight weeks and has increased in eight out of the past ten weeks. Soybean Oil speculator positions have added a total of +39,176 contracts over the past ten weeks as well. This ascent in bullish bets has brought the current overall position to over +100,000 net contracts and to the highest level of the past fifty-six weeks, dating back to March 23rd of 2021. Soybean Oil prices raced to a record high level at over $80 per pound this week and surpassed the previous price peaks of 2008 and 2021. The Soybean Oil prices have had a strong fundamental component driving it higher. The war in Ukraine has created a major disruption in Sunflower Oils (Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers) that has pushed the prices in alternative oils and other soft commodities sharply higher. Reuters news service also cited an Indonesia ban on exports of Palm Oil as having caused an even greater demand for alternative vegetable oils. The dreary outlook for vegetable oil production could mean we see even higher Soybean Oil prices. Overall, the soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (5,031 contracts), Soybeans (1,803 contracts), Soybean Oil (6,887 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,498 contracts), Live Cattle (2,683 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,231 contracts) and Cotton (1,900 contracts). The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Sugar (-349 contracts), Coffee (-6,126 contracts), Cocoa (-2,802 contracts) and Wheat (-641 contracts). Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index WTI Crude 1,740,300 0 307,697 1 -351,252 100 43,555 76 Gold 575,202 40 239,757 60 -275,525 37 35,768 66 Silver 170,577 35 46,429 69 -63,288 37 16,859 41 Copper 203,896 29 18,840 56 -28,307 40 9,467 80 Palladium 6,435 0 -2,182 9 1,560 85 622 80 Platinum 61,603 24 7,537 13 -13,812 89 6,275 50 Natural Gas 1,144,047 14 -130,006 40 82,113 57 47,893 100 Brent 191,883 33 -40,102 44 37,663 56 2,439 42 Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88 Soybeans 762,855 36 200,098 80 -174,873 25 -25,225 28 Corn 1,625,198 42 500,612 94 -456,269 7 -44,343 18 Coffee 209,410 0 41,803 79 -45,447 24 3,644 15 Sugar 909,622 21 239,515 86 -295,470 12 55,955 77 Wheat 337,038 1 23,245 67 -20,425 21 -2,820 98   CORN Futures: The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 500,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 495,581 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.1 45.0 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 73.1 12.1 – Net Position: 500,612 -456,269 -44,343 – Gross Longs: 586,638 731,004 152,407 – Gross Shorts: 86,026 1,187,273 196,750 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.0 6.9 17.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.3 0.1 -1.7   SUGAR Futures: The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 239,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,864 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.6 44.2 11.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 76.7 5.5 – Net Position: 239,515 -295,470 55,955 – Gross Longs: 296,437 402,400 105,565 – Gross Shorts: 56,922 697,870 49,610 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 12.1 77.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.2 -19.8 20.0   COFFEE Futures: The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 41,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,929 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.5 53.8 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.5 75.5 2.9 – Net Position: 41,803 -45,447 3,644 – Gross Longs: 53,423 112,616 9,760 – Gross Shorts: 11,620 158,063 6,116 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.5 24.5 15.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.6 8.4 -2.5   SOYBEANS Futures: The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 200,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 198,295 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 46.0 7.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 69.0 10.5 – Net Position: 200,098 -174,873 -25,225 – Gross Longs: 250,566 351,286 55,231 – Gross Shorts: 50,468 526,159 80,456 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.8 24.7 28.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.1 3.4 3.6   SOYBEAN OIL Futures: The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 105,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 98,324 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent. SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 44.2 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.8 76.5 4.9 – Net Position: 105,211 -127,399 22,188 – Gross Longs: 124,302 174,162 41,383 – Gross Shorts: 19,091 301,561 19,195 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.6 16.1 96.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.3 -9.5 20.0   SOYBEAN MEAL Futures: The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 122,756 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,258 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent. SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 42.4 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.1 80.7 5.2 – Net Position: 122,756 -154,801 32,045 – Gross Longs: 135,397 171,107 52,874 – Gross Shorts: 12,641 325,908 20,829 – Long to Short Ratio: 10.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 95.8 2.4 99.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.6 -2.2 13.0   LIVE CATTLE Futures: The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 54,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,842 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.6 39.8 10.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.8 54.8 12.9 – Net Position: 54,525 -45,886 -8,639 – Gross Longs: 115,285 122,065 30,955 – Gross Shorts: 60,760 167,951 39,594 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.5 67.0 56.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.6 -12.0 -5.7   LEAN HOGS Futures: The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,771 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.4 34.4 10.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.6 51.1 12.7 – Net Position: 43,002 -38,275 -4,727 – Gross Longs: 83,133 78,601 24,424 – Gross Shorts: 40,131 116,876 29,151 – Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.6 48.2 69.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 6.1 16.7   COTTON Futures: The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 85,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,900 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,220 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent. COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.6 35.0 9.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.0 81.8 3.1 – Net Position: 85,120 -98,107 12,987 – Gross Longs: 97,613 73,296 19,582 – Gross Shorts: 12,493 171,403 6,595 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 3.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.9 20.6 94.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.1 -1.0 20.9   COCOA Futures: The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,159 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 45.6 6.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.4 63.5 3.5 – Net Position: 36,357 -43,099 6,742 – Gross Longs: 75,822 109,538 15,230 – Gross Shorts: 39,465 152,637 8,488 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.3 44.0 65.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.5 -2.9 -34.9   WHEAT Futures: The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,886 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent. WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.0 37.6 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 43.7 10.4 – Net Position: 23,245 -20,425 -2,820 – Gross Longs: 121,339 126,766 32,116 – Gross Shorts: 98,094 147,191 34,936 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.8 21.0 98.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.0 -14.5 22.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Invest Macro Invest Macro 23.04.2022 20:49
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising of bullish bets in the Canadian ‘Loonie’ dollar currency futures contracts. CAD speculators raised their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, CAD bets have improved by a total of +26,166 contracts, going from -4,940 net positions on March 22nd to +21,226 net positions this week. These gains have brought this week’s speculator level to the most bullish position since July 13th of 2021, a span of forty weeks. This recent improvement in Loonie sentiment has been helped out by the hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC recently pushed its key interest rate higher by 50 basis points on April 13th and has in the past few days hinted that more interest rate rises were to come. The recent inflation numbers out of Canada were above expectations (6.7 percent) and according to Bloomberg, market participants have pushed their odds to 100 percent for another 50 basis point hike in June. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (2,943 contracts), Japanese yen (4,640 contracts), Swiss franc (2,492 contracts), New Zealand dollar (654 contracts), Canadian dollar (9,068 contracts)and the Mexican peso (6,704 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Euro (-7,759 contracts), Brazil real (-1,557 contracts), Australian dollar (-122 contracts), Bitcoin (-361 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-5,860 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,524 77 32,580 82 -35,893 15 3,313 53 EUR 675,939 72 31,301 45 -49,726 62 18,425 5 GBP 249,529 70 -58,914 32 72,889 73 -13,975 27 JPY 251,291 90 -107,187 3 129,842 99 -22,655 7 CHF 44,269 20 -11,450 50 23,051 57 -11,601 29 CAD 153,302 32 21,226 68 -39,338 31 18,112 66 AUD 147,309 43 -28,837 58 20,800 34 8,037 72 NZD 41,098 26 365 72 503 31 -868 42 MXN 165,403 33 21,664 37 -26,214 62 4,550 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,553 68 44,572 94 -47,063 5 2,491 94 Bitcoin 11,276 61 -194 90 -175 0 369 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.6 3.3 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.9 69.1 3.5 – Net Position: 32,580 -35,893 3,313 – Gross Longs: 46,685 1,778 5,198 – Gross Shorts: 14,105 37,671 1,885 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.0 15.0 52.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 3.3 -5.8   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,060 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.7 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 61.0 8.7 – Net Position: 31,301 -49,726 18,425 – Gross Longs: 221,003 362,930 76,939 – Gross Shorts: 189,702 412,656 58,514 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.6 61.9 4.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 9.7 -10.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,054 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 74.6 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 45.4 14.4 – Net Position: -58,914 72,889 -13,975 – Gross Longs: 36,811 186,134 21,987 – Gross Shorts: 95,725 113,245 35,962 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.6 72.8 26.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.4 28.1 -2.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -107,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,827 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.1 86.0 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.7 34.3 17.3 – Net Position: -107,187 129,842 -22,655 – Gross Longs: 12,723 216,101 20,761 – Gross Shorts: 119,910 86,259 43,416 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.9 99.0 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.6 25.9 -3.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,942 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.6 71.7 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 19.6 47.9 – Net Position: -11,450 23,051 -11,601 – Gross Longs: 2,900 31,735 9,599 – Gross Shorts: 14,350 8,684 21,200 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 56.8 29.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 1.3 1.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,158 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 45.0 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 70.7 12.8 – Net Position: 21,226 -39,338 18,112 – Gross Longs: 44,063 68,989 37,784 – Gross Shorts: 22,837 108,327 19,672 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 31.1 65.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.4 -17.2 20.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.6 53.8 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 39.6 13.7 – Net Position: -28,837 20,800 8,037 – Gross Longs: 39,201 79,208 28,257 – Gross Shorts: 68,038 58,408 20,220 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 34.4 72.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 45.8 -42.8 19.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 365 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 45.9 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5 44.6 8.9 – Net Position: 365 503 -868 – Gross Longs: 19,081 18,853 2,797 – Gross Shorts: 18,716 18,350 3,665 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 31.2 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.4 -20.2 4.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,960 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 50.0 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 65.8 1.9 – Net Position: 21,664 -26,214 4,550 – Gross Longs: 73,710 82,643 7,701 – Gross Shorts: 52,046 108,857 3,151 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 61.9 62.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.4 12.1 10.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 44,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,129 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.2 17.6 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 84.3 2.5 – Net Position: 44,572 -47,063 2,491 – Gross Longs: 53,790 12,399 4,272 – Gross Shorts: 9,218 59,462 1,781 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.2 5.4 94.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 5.4 5.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.3 3.6 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.0 5.2 7.0 – Net Position: -194 -175 369 – Gross Longs: 8,263 408 1,155 – Gross Shorts: 8,457 583 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 27.4 21.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 19.8 4.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Forex News: EURJPY, LH setting up sellers stacking candles?

Forex News: EURJPY, LH setting up sellers stacking candles?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 03.05.2022 10:52
Today’s focus is on the EURJPY, and for now, it’s from the sell-side. That might sound a bit strange based on the amazing buying we have been seeing in recent weeks but like everything, nothing lasts forever. Please note that we’re not calling it a trend change, but in the short term, some signs have started to stack up on the seller side. The first sign we can see is the break of the medium-term to the long-term trend. After that break, we saw a short steep counter that is typical of counter-rallies after a break lower. Currently, we can see a build-up of indecision that has formed an LH after the trend break. From 137.50 we can see plenty of supply from sellers halting any new attempt by buyers. These are, for now, all pointing to a possible push lower by sellers, but they have a few things to do before we can start thinking confirmed. First, we need to see minor support beaten to see a resumption of seller control. We would then look lower at 135.28 support and 134.60 support if that happens. If sellers can move below both of those levels, we could have a new downtrend on our hands. We have put in the forming downtrend abut we would like to see price remain inside that trend if it moved back to the support areas. If we see buyers maintain minor support and push to or through the new downtrend line, we would start thinking possible fail, and we would then move back to the drawing board with new focus on a possible retest of the April high if new HLs and HHs are formed. The BOJ and the Jen will also be a focus as they drove the recent rally, and it was primarily policy-driven. Any updates from the BOJ that resume JPY weakness could also be a factor in candling out the current seller price action. EURJPY D1 Chart The post Forex News: EURJPY, LH setting up sellers stacking candles? appeared first on Eightcap.
The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 17 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.05.2022 11:04
The Swing Overview – Week 17 Major stock indices continued in their correction and tested strong support levels. In contrast, the US dollar strengthened strongly and is at its highest level since January 2017. The strengthening of the dollar had a negative impact on the value of the euro and commodities such as gold, which fell below the $1,900 per ounce. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates low and the yen broke the magic level 130 per dollar. The USD index strengthened again but the US GDP declined The US consumer confidence in the month of April came in at 107.3, a slight decline from the previous month when consumer confidence was 107.6.   The US GDP data was surprising. The US economy decreased by 1.4% in 1Q 2022 (in the previous quarter the economy grew by 6.4%). This sharp decline surprised even analysts who expected the economy to grow by 1.1%. This result is influenced by the Omicron, which caused the economy to shut down for a longer period than expected earlier this year.    The Fed meeting scheduled for the next week on May 4 will be hot. In fact, even the most dovish Fed officials are already leaning towards a 0.5% rate hike. At the end of the year, we can expect a rate around 2.5%.   The US 10-year bond yields continue to strengthen on the back of these expectations. The US dollar is also strengthening and is already at its highest level since January 2017, surpassing 103 level.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   Earnings season is underway in equities Earnings season is in full swing. Amazon's results were disappointing. While revenue was up 7% reaching $116.4 billion in the first quarter (revenue was $108.5 billion in the same period last year), the company posted an total loss of $8.1 billion, which translated to a loss of $7.56 per share. This loss, however, is not due to operating activities, but it is the result of the revaluation of the equity investment in Rivian Automotive.   Facebook, on the other hand, surprised in a positive way posting unexpectedly strong user growth, a sign that its Instagram app is capable of competing with Tik Tok. However, the revenue growth of 6.6% was the lowest in the company's history.    Apple was also a positive surprise, reporting earnings per share of $1.52 (analysts' forecast was $1.43) and revenue growth of $97.3 billion, up 8.6% from the same period last year. However, the company warned that the closed operations in Russia, the lockdown in China due to the coronavirus and supply disruptions will negatively impact earnings in the next quarter.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart In terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index is in a downtrend and has reached a major support level on the daily chart last week, which is at 4,150. It has bounced upwards from this support to the resistance according to the 4 H chart which is 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance according to the H4 chart is 4,360 - 4,365.  The strong resistance is at 4,500.   German DAX index German businessmen are optimistic about the development of the German economy in the next 6 months, as indicated by the Ifo Business Climate Index, which reached 91.8 for April (the expectation was 89.1). However, this did not have a significant effect on the movement of the index and it continued in its downward correction. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index is below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,180 - 14,200. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The euro has fallen below 1.05 The euro lost significantly last week. While the French election brought relief to the markets as Emmanuel Macron defended the presidency, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine continue to weigh heavily on the European currency. The strong dollar is also having an impact on the EUR/USD pair, pushing the pair down. The price has fallen below 1.05, the lowest level since January 2017.    Figure 4: EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The euro broke through the important support at 1.0650 - 1.071, which has now become the new resistance. The new support was formed in January 2017 and is around the level 1.0350 - 1.040.   Japan's central bank continues to support the fragile economy The Bank of Japan on Thursday reinforced its commitment to keep interest rates at very low levels by pledging to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year government bonds daily, sparking a fresh sell-off in the yen and reviving government bonds. With this commitment, the BOJ is trying to support a fragile economy, even as a surge in commodity prices is pushing the inflation up.   The decision puts Japan in the opposite position to other major economies, which are moving towards tighter monetary policy to combat soaring prices. Figure 5: The USD/JPY on the monthly and daily chart In fresh quarterly forecasts, the central bank has projected core consumer inflation to reach 1.9% in the current fiscal year and then ease to 1.1% in fiscal years 2023 and 2024, an indication that it views the current cost-push price increases as transitory.   In the wake of this decision, the Japanese yen has continued to weaken and has already surpassed the magical level 130 per dollar.   Strong dollar beats also gold Anticipation of aggressive Fed action against inflation, which is supporting the US dollar, is having a negative impact on gold. The rising US government bond yields are also a problem for the yellow metal. This has put gold under pressure, which peaked on Thursday when the price reached USD 1,872 per ounce of gold. But then the gold started to strengthen. Indeed, the decline in the US GDP may have been something of a warning to the Fed and prevent them from tightening the economy too quickly, which helped gold, in the short term, bounce off a strong support. Figure 6: The gold on H4 and daily chart Strong support for the gold is at $1,869 - $1,878 per ounce. There is a confluence of horizontal resistance and the SMA 100 moving average on the daily chart. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 1 907 - 1 910 USD per ounce. The strong resistance according to the daily chart is then 1 977 - 2 000 USD per ounce of gold. Moving averages on the H4 chart can also be used as a resistance. The orange line is the EMA 50 and the blue line is the SMA 100.  
Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Invest Macro Invest Macro 07.05.2022 14:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the continued drop in speculator bets for European common currency futures contracts. Euro speculators reduced their bets for the third straight week this week and have now trimmed the net position by a total of -45,438 contracts over this three-week period. This decreasing sentiment among speculators accelerated this week with a large drop of -28,579 contracts and knocked the net contract level back into a bearish position for the first time since the beginning of October 2021. The fundamental backdrop for the euro is one of weak growth and low interest rates compared to many of the other major currency countries. The Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of 2022 amounted to just 0.2 percent growth following a fourth quarter of 2021 growth reading of 0.3 percent. The war in Ukraine combined with surging inflation and weakening consumer demand has some banks believing a GDP contraction could be on the horizon while others see parity in the euro versus the US dollar as inevitable. Eurozone interest rates are forecasted to rise this year but they have been behind their major currency counterparts. The US, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand have all raised their benchmark interest rates over the past quarter and look likely to see more over the year, possibly widening the interest rate differential even more if the European Central Bank does not act. This week was a very rare week when all the currencies we cover had lower speculator bets including the Euro (-28,579 contracts), Canadian dollar (-11,852 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,676 contracts), Mexican peso (-5,503 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,259 contracts), Brazil real (-5,096 contracts), British pound sterling (-4,192 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,038 contracts), US Dollar Index (-808 contracts), Australian dollar (-865 contracts) and Bitcoin (-24 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-03-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,092 76 33,071 83 -35,684 15 2,613 45 EUR 694,926 80 -6,378 33 -24,586 69 30,964 26 GBP 268,496 82 -73,813 21 89,026 82 -15,213 24 JPY 254,813 92 -100,794 7 120,264 94 -19,470 14 CHF 49,385 31 -13,907 46 30,542 68 -16,635 7 CAD 152,779 32 9,029 56 -12,959 51 3,930 38 AUD 152,257 46 -28,516 58 34,225 44 -5,709 39 NZD 50,844 45 -6,610 60 9,879 46 -3,269 14 MXN 151,933 27 14,623 34 -18,552 65 3,929 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,549 56 41,788 91 -43,371 9 1,583 83 Bitcoin 10,051 52 388 100 -429 0 41 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,879 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.5 2.7 9.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.4 68.6 5.0 – Net Position: 33,071 -35,684 2,613 – Gross Longs: 46,264 1,439 5,296 – Gross Shorts: 13,193 37,123 2,683 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.8 15.3 45.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -3.6 -13.9   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,201 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 55.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 58.7 8.2 – Net Position: -6,378 -24,586 30,964 – Gross Longs: 208,449 383,222 88,267 – Gross Shorts: 214,827 407,808 57,303 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.0 69.0 25.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 6.2 13.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -73,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,621 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 77.7 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 44.6 13.3 – Net Position: -73,813 89,026 -15,213 – Gross Longs: 33,536 208,754 20,590 – Gross Shorts: 107,349 119,728 35,803 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.8 82.3 24.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.3 22.8 -4.3   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -100,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,535 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.3 84.6 7.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.8 37.4 14.7 – Net Position: -100,794 120,264 -19,470 – Gross Longs: 18,585 215,563 18,007 – Gross Shorts: 119,379 95,299 37,477 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 6.8 94.3 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.5 13.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,869 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.8 75.8 15.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.0 13.9 48.7 – Net Position: -13,907 30,542 -16,635 – Gross Longs: 4,357 37,429 7,397 – Gross Shorts: 18,264 6,887 24,032 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 5.4 to 1 0.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.7 68.3 7.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.6 11.9 -14.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,881 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.2 47.5 21.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.3 56.0 18.4 – Net Position: 9,029 -12,959 3,930 – Gross Longs: 44,670 72,629 32,093 – Gross Shorts: 35,641 85,588 28,163 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.7 51.2 37.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.8 -4.0 -17.1   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,651 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.9 52.6 14.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 30.2 17.8 – Net Position: -28,516 34,225 -5,709 – Gross Longs: 46,995 80,147 21,330 – Gross Shorts: 75,511 45,922 27,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.4 44.4 38.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.0 -10.6 -20.8   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 60.6 4.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.3 41.1 11.2 – Net Position: -6,610 9,879 -3,269 – Gross Longs: 17,427 30,789 2,423 – Gross Shorts: 24,037 20,910 5,692 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.2 45.6 14.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.3 18.4 -32.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 14,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,126 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.0 52.3 4.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 64.5 1.9 – Net Position: 14,623 -18,552 3,929 – Gross Longs: 63,860 79,394 6,771 – Gross Shorts: 49,237 97,946 2,842 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.6 65.1 59.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.9 -13.5 -0.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,884 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.2 13.5 5.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 83.9 2.8 – Net Position: 41,788 -43,371 1,583 – Gross Longs: 49,991 8,280 3,278 – Gross Shorts: 8,203 51,651 1,695 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.4 9.0 83.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.2 1.1 -15.4     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 412 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 3.0 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.9 7.2 8.2 – Net Position: 388 -429 41 – Gross Longs: 8,121 298 867 – Gross Shorts: 7,733 727 826 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.5 7.1 13.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.0 4.2 -10.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
Forex News: EURUSD, are we seeing a new breakout?

Forex News: EURUSD, are we seeing a new breakout?

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 12.05.2022 09:48
Risk markets are seeing another session of aggressive selling. The selling so far is across multiple asset classes. It’s a real good old fashioned risk-off day so far. Until today the EURUSD looked to be holding up the best out of the three main risk currencies, but that’s all changed in today’s European session after sellers finally broke through support. Until today the EURUSD continued to hold its line ignoring the AUD and GBP making lower moves to the USD. 1.0490 continued to hold for buyers and even in today’s Asian session, this level remained in play. The AUD and GBP continued to hit new lower lows while the EUR held on. We started to think, is it EU rate raise expectations holding it up? That didn’t make real sense as both currencies saw rate raises recently but continued to move lower. This all changed today after sellers broke support and confirmed a breakout of the descending triangle pattern. These patterns in downtrends are normally seen as trend continuation patterns and this case is no different. While price remains below support we will continue to look for further lower prices and with the ongoing inflation worries and global recession fears, this could be a factor that maintains selling. There is talk of parity with the USD, could this be the start of the move that realise these calls? EURUSD D1 Chart The post Forex News: EURUSD, are we seeing a new breakout? appeared first on Eightcap.
Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses

Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 13.05.2022 07:19
Well, what can we say about this last week? It was a horrific week on the crypto boards, with most coins plunging. The selling got going last weekend and peaked with a real market crash on Thursday. 200 billion of value was wiped off just on Thursday’s session alone. Bitcoin hit 25,338 USD at its lowest point on Thursday, and Ethereum touched $1702, setting new year lows. The rout wasn’t just about those two. The top 25 index coin index we quote cashed by 45.18% to its low on Thursday. Why did this happen? As the week went on, a few stories started to emerge. UST was the main influence, and it had a catastrophic effect on Terra Luna, which we will get to later. UST is a stable coin; these coins are meant to be pegged in value to the USD and, in theory, should be at the 1:1 value. UST is a little different as it’s an algorithmic stable coin under-pinned by code rather than cash held in reserve. This is where the trouble began. As UST fell under $1 the cracks opened and fear set in. Selling accelerated, and its value slipped down to .41 cents. This had disastrous consequences for its sister currency Terra Luna which has a floating price and was designed to absorb UST price shocks. Terra crashed on UST failure to hold value and ended Thursday’s session under 1 US cent. We’re talking at 99% plunge! This was catastrophic for traders and investors that owned LUNA as many exchanges slowed to craw trying to deal with the mass of sell orders hitting the exchanges. Pressure on bitcoin, the Luna Foundation owned a mass of bitcoin used to shore up terra in times of crisis. Talk suggested large amounts had been sold to deal with the terra issue and this compounded/added to the panic selling that session. The story continues, tether the world’s largest stable coin, also dipped below $1 US, sending a shock through the markets of a contagion. This added to the panic. It’s difficult to tell what may happen next, but from watching the events this week, it’s important you remain vigilant as this volatility continues. I’m not an industry expert, but from watching the events this week, it’s something that came to my mind.This week’s focus is a sad one, but we can’t skip over Terra Luna. I’m not going to say much more on it as the meat is above. It’s a terrible event as, yes, some might think it’s cool to see markets destroyed, but there’s a personal loss in there as many investors believed in terra and now may face very unfortunate situations. The post Crypto Focus: Market meltdown continues as Terra (Luna) collapses appeared first on Eightcap.
UK economy slides into recession

COT Currency Speculators raised British Pound Sterling bearish bets for 10th week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 15.05.2022 14:26
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data this week was the rise in bearish bets for the British pound sterling currency futures contracts. Pound speculators have raised their bearish bets for a tenth consecutive week this week and for the eleventh time out of the past twelve weeks. Over the past ten-week time-frame, pound bets have dropped by a total of -79,261 contracts, going from -337 net positions on March 1st to a total of -79,598 net positions this week. The deterioration in speculator sentiment has now pushed the pound net position to the most bearish standing of the past one hundred and thirty-seven weeks, dating back to September 24th of 2019. Pound sterling sentiment has been hit by a recent slowing economy as the UK GDP declined by 0.1 percent in March after flat growth in February. Also, weighing on the UK economy is the war in Ukraine that has sharply raised inflation in the country (and elsewhere) and which could see the UK economy with the lowest growth rate among G7 countries in 2023, according to the IMF. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (22,907 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,705 contracts), Bitcoin (315 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-9,660 contracts), Australian dollar (-13,198 contracts), Brazil real (-1,010 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,856 contracts), British pound sterling (-5,785 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,386 contracts), Canadian dollar (-14,436 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-10-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 57,556 84 34,776 86 -37,174 13 2,398 43 EUR 705,046 84 16,529 40 -43,026 64 26,497 18 GBP 264,594 80 -79,598 17 95,245 86 -15,647 23 JPY 247,278 87 -110,454 1 124,927 97 -14,473 24 CHF 51,282 37 -15,763 40 29,819 69 -14,056 16 CAD 151,009 31 -5,407 38 2,939 67 2,468 35 AUD 153,209 47 -41,714 46 47,126 54 -5,412 39 NZD 56,235 56 -12,996 49 16,874 56 -3,878 7 MXN 153,858 28 16,725 34 -20,866 64 4,141 61 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 61,450 55 40,778 90 -42,031 10 1,253 79 Bitcoin 10,841 57 703 100 -789 0 86 15 Open Interest is the amount of contracts that were live in the marketplace at time of data. US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,071 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.6 3.2 8.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.2 67.8 4.5 – Net Position: 34,776 -37,174 2,398 – Gross Longs: 49,864 1,837 4,970 – Gross Shorts: 15,088 39,011 2,572 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.8 12.8 42.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.6 -3.4 -19.3   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,378 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 53.3 12.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.0 59.4 8.3 – Net Position: 16,529 -43,026 26,497 – Gross Longs: 228,230 376,043 84,921 – Gross Shorts: 211,701 419,069 58,424 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 63.8 18.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.5 1.2 0.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -79,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,813 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.1 79.6 7.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.2 43.6 13.5 – Net Position: -79,598 95,245 -15,647 – Gross Longs: 29,469 210,627 20,157 – Gross Shorts: 109,067 115,382 35,804 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.6 86.0 23.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.5 25.6 -7.7   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,794 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.5 86.2 8.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.2 35.7 13.9 – Net Position: -110,454 124,927 -14,473 – Gross Longs: 11,196 213,084 19,811 – Gross Shorts: 121,650 88,157 34,284 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.8 96.6 24.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.1 0.0 16.7   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,907 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.2 74.6 16.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.0 16.5 43.5 – Net Position: -15,763 29,819 -14,056 – Gross Longs: 4,727 38,258 8,271 – Gross Shorts: 20,490 8,439 22,327 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 69.2 15.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.7 8.0 -7.6   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,029 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.6 49.8 21.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 47.9 20.1 – Net Position: -5,407 2,939 2,468 – Gross Longs: 38,679 75,215 32,880 – Gross Shorts: 44,086 72,276 30,412 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.3 66.9 34.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.0 14.5 -29.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,516 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.1 59.9 13.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.3 29.1 16.7 – Net Position: -41,714 47,126 -5,412 – Gross Longs: 36,869 91,731 20,131 – Gross Shorts: 78,583 44,605 25,543 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 54.0 39.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.3 4.7 -34.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.0 68.5 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.1 38.5 10.8 – Net Position: -12,996 16,874 -3,878 – Gross Longs: 15,203 38,541 2,216 – Gross Shorts: 28,199 21,667 6,094 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.5 56.4 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.4 26.0 -54.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,623 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.5 53.1 4.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.7 66.7 1.5 – Net Position: 16,725 -20,866 4,141 – Gross Longs: 63,921 81,735 6,467 – Gross Shorts: 47,196 102,601 2,326 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.5 64.1 60.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.6 -10.1 -3.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,788 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 15.4 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 83.8 3.0 – Net Position: 40,778 -42,031 1,253 – Gross Longs: 48,835 9,454 3,070 – Gross Shorts: 8,057 51,485 1,817 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 10.3 79.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 3.5 -20.6   Russian Ruble Futures: The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.6 60.6 2.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 0.5 94.7 4.7 – Net Position: 7,543 -7,150 -393 – Gross Longs: 7,658 12,679 593 – Gross Shorts: 115 19,829 986 – Long to Short Ratio: 66.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.2 69.1 23.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.6 16.7 -18.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 388 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.1 2.1 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.6 9.4 8.3 – Net Position: 703 -789 86 – Gross Longs: 8,789 227 989 – Gross Shorts: 8,086 1,016 903 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 14.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.0 -24.9 -13.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Swing Overview - Week 18 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 18 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 16.05.2022 10:51
The Swing Overview - Week 18 In the war against rising inflation, central banks in the US, the UK and Australia raised interest rates this week. Britain, meanwhile, warned of the risk of a recession. The CNB also raised rates. They have thus reached their highest levels since 1999. The key interest rate in the Czech Republic is now 5.75%.   The main stock indices have weakened strongly in response to the monetary tightening policies of the major economies and are at significant support levels. The negative sentiment on the indices is confirmed by the VIX fear indicator, which is above 30. The US dollar, on the other hand, continues to ride on the winning wave. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.5% The Fed raised rates by 0.5% points on Wednesday as expected, the highest jump in 22 years. This took the interest rate to 1%. The Fed chief announced that further half a percentage point rate hikes will continue at the next meetings in June and July. Powell also stated that the US economy is doing well and that it can withstand interest rate hikes without the risk of a recession and a significant increase in unemployment.   In addition to the rate hike, the Fed announced that in June it would begin reducing the assets on the bank's balance sheet that the central bank had accumulated during the pandemic. In June, July and August, the Fed will sell $45 billion of assets a month, and starting in September it will sell $95 billion a month.   Although Powell ruled out a 0.75% rate hike at the next meetings, interest rate futures markets continue to expect that possibility with about an 80% probability. Figure 1: The CME Fed Watch tool projections of the target interest rate for the next Fed meeting on June 15, 2022 Based on these expectations, US 10-year Treasury yields continue to strengthen and have surpassed the 3% mark. The US dollar is also strengthening and it is at the highest level since January 2017 and approaching 104.  Figure 2: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices remain under pressure The SP 500 index initially rallied strongly following the announcement of the rate hike, after Powell ruled out a 0.75% rate hike in subsequent meetings. However, markets gave back all the gains the following day as interest rate futures continue to estimate an 80% probability that the next rate hike, which will take place in June 2022, will be 0.75%.   Figure 3: SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart Thus, in terms of technical analysis, the US SP 500 index continues to move in a downtrend below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages with resistance, according to the 4 H chart, at 4,308 - 4,313. The next resistance, according to the H4 chart, is 4,360 - 4,365.  Strong resistance is at 4,500. The current support is 4 070 - 4 100.   German DAX index German industrial orders fell by 4.7% in March, which is more than expected. A major contributor to this negative result was a reduction in orders from abroad as the war in Ukraine hit demand in the manufacturing sector. The outlook is negative and some analysts suggest that the German economy is heading into recession. The reasons are the war in Ukraine, problems in supply chains and high inflation. The Dax index confirms these negative outlooks with a downward trend. Figure 4: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index continues to move below the SMA 100 on the daily chart and on the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. Resistance is 14,300 - 14,330. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The outlook for the euro remains negative HSBC bank on Thursday significantly cut its forecast for the euro, saying it expects the euro to weaken to parity against the US dollar this year, the first major investment bank to make such a prediction.   The post-pandemic economic environment, which has been damaged by the ongoing war in Ukraine, looks challenging for the European economy, potentially forcing the European Central Bank to tighten policy slowly compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has begun an aggressive rate-hiking cycle.  This has raised the prospect of the single currency falling to levels not seen in two decades. HSBC said it expects the move to happen by the fourth quarter of 2022.   ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said this week that rates may need to be raised as early as July. The precursor to any rate hike must be an end to bond purchases and that could come in late June. Markets are pricing in a 90 basis point tightening in rates this year.   Figure 5: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart The EUR/USD pair is in a clear downtrend with resistance at 1.0650 - 1.071. The important support is 1.05, but it has already been tested several times and could be broken soon. The next support is from January 2017 at around 1.0350 - 1.040.   The Czech koruna got another injection in the form of an interest rate hike The CNB raised the interest rate by 0.75%, which exceeded analysts' expectations who projected a 0.50% rise. The current rate now stands at 5.75%, the highest since 1999. Consumer price growth continues to rise and by raising the interest rate the central bank is trying to dampen this growth by raising the interest rate. Inflation is expected to reach 15% by mid-year. The CNB has an inflation target of 2% and inflation is expected to reach these levels in 2024.   The problem is economic growth, which is slowing significantly.  But maintaining price stability is clearly more important than the negative effects of higher rates on the real economy.  Figure 6: The USD/CZK and the EUR/CZK on the daily chart The Czech koruna has so far done best on the pair with the euro, as interest rates are zero on the euro. The koruna has been weakening significantly on the USD pair in recent days. The current significant resistance on the USD/CZK is CZK 23.50 per dollar and on the EUR/CZK it is 24.70.    Bank of England warned of recession and more than 10% inflation The Bank of England sent out a strong warning that Britain faces the twin dangers of recession and inflation above 10% when it raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 1% on Thursday. The pound fell more than a cent against the US dollar and hit its lowest level since mid-2020, below $1.24, as the gloominess of the BoE's new forecasts for the world's fifth-largest economy caught investors off guard.    The BoE also said it was also concerned about the impact of renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in China, which threaten to hit supply chains again and increase inflationary pressures.    The BoE's rate hike was the fourth since December, the fastest pace of policy tightening in 25 years. The central bank also revised up its price growth forecasts, which suggest it will peak above 10% in the final three months of this year. Previously, it had expected it to peak at around 8% in April. Markets expect interest rates to reach 2-2.25% by the end of 2022.  Figure 7: The GBP/USD on weekly and daily charts In terms of technical analysis, the GBP/USD is in a downtrend. The pound is trading at levels below 1.24 pounds per dollar and has reached to the support of 1.225-1.2330. The nearest resistance according to the weekly chart is at 1.2700-1.2750.   
The Swing Overview - Week 19 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 19 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 16.05.2022 10:59
The Swing Overview - Week 19 Stock indices continued to weaken strongly last week, while the US dollar has already surpassed the mark 104 and is at 20-year highs. However, a set of important data is behind us, which could bring some temporary relief to the equity markets. The Czech koruna weakened sharply after the appointment of the new CNB Governor Ales Michl, who is a proponent of a dovish approach. Thus, the rise in interest rates in the Czech Republic appears to be close to its peak.   Macroeconomic data The US consumer inflation for April was reported on Wednesday, which came in at 8.3% on year-on-year basis. Analysts were expecting inflation to be 8.1%. Although the figure achieved was higher than expectations, it was still lower than the 8.5% inflation figure achieved in March. On a month-on-month basis, the price increase in April was 0.3%, significantly lower than in March when prices rose by 1.5%.   On Thursday, industrial inflation was reported at 8.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month for April.   The positive thing about this data is that inflation declined from previous readings. However, it is important to note that the year-on-year comparison is based on data where inflation was also higher in the previous year due to the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.   The Fed chief reiterated that he expects another 0.50% point rise in interest rates at the next two Fed meetings. He also mentioned that a higher rate hike cannot be ruled out if necessary.   The US 10-year bond yields came down from their peak and made a slight correction. However, the US dollar continued to strengthen and broke the resistance at 104. The dollar is thus at 20-year highs. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   Equity indices heavily oversold The strong dollar, rising US bond yields, the war in Ukraine and the effects of the lockdown in China were the main reasons for the decline in equity indices. The SP 500 index hit 3,860, the lowest level since March 2021. This is also where long-term support is. However, the important macro data is behind us and the market has processed all the available fundamental information. This could bring temporary relief to the markets and the index could make an upward correction. The fall in 10-year bond yields, gives this move some boost as well.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart However, from a technical analysis perspective, the US SP 500 index remains in a current downtrend as the markets have formed lower low and is also below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages on the H4 and daily charts. The nearest resistance is 4040 - 4070. The next resistance is at 4,140 and especially 4,293 - 4,300. The support is at 3,860 - 3,900.   German DAX index In macroeconomic data, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment for May was reported last week and showed a reading of -34.3, an improvement from the previous month's reading of -41.0. Inflation in Germany for April is at 7.4% on year-on-year basis and up 0.8% from March (the previous month's increase was 2.5%). Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The index continues to move in a downtrend along with the major world indices. The price has reached the SMA 100 moving average on the H4 chart, which tends to signal resistance in a downtrend. The price is moving below the SMA 100 on both the daily chart and the H4 chart, confirming the bearish sentiment. The nearest support according to the H4 is 13,600 - 13,650. The resistance is 14,300 - 14,330. The next resistance is 14,592 - 14,632.   The big sell-off in the euro continues The euro fell to 1.0356 against the dollar, the lowest value since January 2017. This value is also an area of significant support where price could stall. Fundamentally, the euro's depreciation is due to the strong dollar and the Fed's hawkish policy, which contrasts with the ECB's policy of not raising rates yet.    Figure 4: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart Eurozone inflation data will be reported next week, which could be an important catalyst for further movement. The significant support is priced around 1.0350 - 1.040. The current resistance is at 1.05.   Czech koruna weakened strongly on the new governor appointment The President Miloš Zeman surprised with the appointment of Ales Michl for the governor of the CNB. Michl is known for his dovish views, having spoken out against raising interest rates at recent meetings. His appointment was welcomed in the markets by a strong depreciation of the Czech koruna. However, the bank later intervened in the markets by selling part of its foreign exchange reserves to prevent further depreciation of the Czech koruna.   It is important to know that the Bank's monetary policy is decided by the seven-member Bank Board. So far, the proportion for voting on rate hikes has been 5:2. But by the end of June, the president must appoint 3 new board members. This could significantly change the voting ratio on the board and set a new course for the bank's policy, which would mean a halt to the rise in interest rates. However, it is likely that at the June board meeting the board, still with the old composition, will decide on further interest rate increases. Figure 5: The USD/CZK and the EUR/CZK on the daily chart The Czech koruna has reached 24.36 against the dollar and 25.47 against the euro, from which it started to descend after the CNB interventions.  
Don’t get too excited by bear-market rallies

The Commodities Feed: US gasoline tightness | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 18.05.2022 07:45
Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views Learn more on ING Economics Energy The oil market has seen a partial recovery in early morning trading today, after Brent settled more than 2% lower yesterday. Reports that the US is looking to ease some sanctions against Venezuela contributed to yesterday’s weakness, with it thought that the easing could see a partial resumption of Venezuelan oil to Europe. Any increase is likely to be rather limited, at least in the short term.   There are growing concerns over the refined products market. What started out as a tight middle distillate market appears to be spreading into the gasoline market, at least for the US. At a time when US gasoline inventories should be building ahead of the driving season, inventories instead have declined for most of this year. These are now below the low end of the 5-year range.  Gasoline demand should only increase over the coming months and, in the absence of a pick up in refinery runs, the gasoline market is likely to continue to tighten. The tighter gasoline market appears to have also contributed to a narrowing in the WTI/Brent discount, given the  need for higher US refinery runs, which should be supportive for US crude demand. Gasoline stocks in the ARA region of Europe are more comfortable, and are at least at a decade high for this time of the year. Given the tightness on the US East Coast and more comfortable European stock levels, we would expect to see a pick-up in European gasoline flows to the US East Coast in order to help alleviate some of this tightness. API numbers released overnight confirm the tightening in the market. US crude oil inventories are reported to have fallen by 2.4MMbbls, whilst stock levels at Cushing, the WTI delivery hub, fell by 3.1MMbbls. It was the gasoline market which saw the largest decline, with stocks falling by 5.1MMbbls over the last week. EIA numbers will be released later today. The EU carbon market saw some strength yesterday, with the market breaking above EUR91/t. The European Parliament’s Environmental Committee voted yesterday on reforms to the EU ETS. The committee agreed on the need for more aggressive carbon emission reduction targets. The committee would like to see emissions covered by the ETS fall by 67% by 2030 from 2005 levels, this compares to the initial proposal for a 61% reduction. In order to achieve this, the committee has  recommended that the amount of emission allowances should be reduced by 4.2% in the first year the reform starts, and then this reduction should increase by 0.1% each year through until 2030. The committee also wants to see the phasing out of free allowances between 2026 and 2030, and the full implementation of  the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by 2030, which would be 5 years earlier than currently proposed. In addition,  the Environmental Committee wants to phase out free allocations for the aviation  sector  by 2025, which would  be 2 years earlier than the Commission had proposed. The proposal will also see maritime transport included in the ETS from 2024, which would cover 100% of intra-EU routes, and 50% of emissions from extra-EU routes coming in and out of the EU initially. Finally, the committee also agreed on the implementation of another emission trading  system for commercial buildings and transport, which would start in 2025, whilst private buildings and transportation will be excluded  from this new ETS until at least 2029. This latest proposal will be put to a vote  in parliament next month, after which negotiations between member states will likely start. Metals Latest reports that Shanghai might start relaxing its two-month lockdown after three days of zero community transmission, along with better-than-expected retail sales and consumer spending data from the US, were constructive for risk assets yesterday. Most base metals settled higher on the day, with LME aluminium closing more  than 2% up. Shrinking LME inventories have provided some support  to aluminium. The latest LME data shows that on-warrant inventories for the metal fell for an eighth consecutive day to a new record low of 230kt yesterday. Turning to steel, and China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) said that China will keep its restrictions on new steel capacity intact and would push for more mergers and acquisitions within the industry. Due to ongoing Covid-related restrictions, steel demand has remained under pressure recently, but this should improve as the Covid situation improves. Mysteel expects China’s steel demand over 2H22 to rise by 10% compared to 1H22, whilst YoY growth is expected to hit 15% in 2H22. This growth is expected  to be supported by local government policies. Agriculture CBOT wheat continued to trade firm yesterday, even after India relaxed its stance with its recently announced export ban on wheat. New directives from the Indian government indicate that the restrictions will not apply to wheat shipments that have already been handed over to the customs department for clearance and loadings. However, the export restrictions will still apply to wheat sales where the shipments are not yet finalised through the issuance of irrevocable LoC. Reuters reported that only around 400kt of wheat (out of around 2.2mt of wheat currently at ports) would be eligible for relief and likely to be exported. The relaxation is unlikely to provide much relief to the global market. TagsWheat Oil Metals Gasoline EU carbon Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery

Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 20.05.2022 15:34
Let’s just say things have been a lot more settled this week than last week’s bloodbath. The top 10 and 25 indexes remain positive on Friday. But it’s very little pulled back compared to the damage done over the last 6-weeks. A few headlines that caught our attention this week, Ripple partnered with a Lithuanian firm for cross-border payments. Attention remains on Ethereum as it prepares to merge and just hangs on to the 2000 USD level. Tether is said to be partially backed by non-US government bonds. Is this meant to give us confidence after the stable coins fiasco last week? Talk emerging around debt defaults by El Salvador. The country famously made Bitcoin legal tender and was reported to have bought large parcels on the coin. The pressure continued this week as BTC fell below 29K. Price has moved back above 30K, but pressure remains on the country after this move. Ranges are the topic of a lot of the top ten at this point in the week. We discussed this in detail in our Bitcoin report earlier today, and it’s not really a surprise based on last week’s trade. We want to point out the weekly demand areas and support areas we are seeing holding on several coins. Definitely take a look at some of the top 10 on their weekly charts to see the areas and levels we have brought up. Continuing on from this, we want to show an example of this. As you can see below, Bitcoin weekly has held for now from the 28,600 – 30,000 area. Last week’s plunge failed to break this level, and it remains key weekly support for now. While this level remains in play, we will look for buyers to continue to consolidate.   The post Crypto Focus: Market Steadies but No Sign of Recovery appeared first on Eightcap.
Forex Speculators weaken Commodity Currency sentiment over last month - 22.05.2022

Forex Speculators weaken Commodity Currency sentiment over last month - 22.05.2022

Invest Macro Invest Macro 22.05.2022 12:34
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Click for larger image Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the commodity currency speculator positions that have been on the defensive in recent weeks. Canadian dollar positions declined for a fourth straight week this week and have fallen by a total of -35,722 contracts over the past four weeks. This has pushed the overall speculator standing into a bearish position for a second straight week and to the most bearish level since October 2021. Previously, from the middle of January, CAD positions had started to trend higher and mostly maintained a bullish position into April, reaching a 40-week high on April 19th before seeing speculator sentiment weaken (-14,496 contracts this week). Australian dollar spec positions slipped for a third straight week this week and the overall speculator position has now hit a 7-week low. Aussie positions have maintained a bearish speculator bias since last May (52 consecutive weeks in bearish territory) but had recently seen a reprieve of the weak sentiment. Aussie positions improved strongly from late-February to late-April with a 10-week contract rise of +59,043 positions from February 22nd to April 26th. The speculator positions hit the least bearish level (on April 26th) of the previous 42 weeks before these past 3 weeks has seen speculators re-up their bearish levels. New Zealand dollar speculators also added to their bearish bets for a fourth straight week and have now pushed the position to the most bearish level since March 17th of 2020, a span of 113 weeks. Kiwi speculator positions had spent almost all of 2021 in bullish levels but spec bets started to falter at the end of the year and into the new year (through early March). Recently, positions had turned positive to bullish positioning in the middle of March and again later in April before turning lower in recent weeks. The NZD speculator sentiment has now been in bearish territory for the past three weeks after dropping by a total of -18,132 contracts from April 26th to this week. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,437 contracts), Japanese yen (8,145 contracts), Euro (3,810 contracts), British pound sterling (357 contracts), Bitcoin (103 contracts) and the Mexican peso (11,490 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the New Zealand dollar (-4,771 contracts), Canadian dollar (-9,089 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,928 contracts), Brazil real (-2,683 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-829 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-17-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,899 93 36,213 88 -39,506 9 3,293 53 EUR 706,712 85 20,339 41 -51,517 61 31,178 26 GBP 253,811 73 -79,241 17 94,344 85 -15,103 24 JPY 241,308 83 -102,309 6 115,062 92 -12,753 28 CHF 53,291 42 -16,592 37 31,181 72 -14,589 14 CAD 151,585 31 -14,496 28 12,591 75 1,905 34 AUD 163,809 55 -44,642 43 54,437 59 -9,795 29 NZD 60,804 64 -17,767 41 21,390 63 -3,623 10 MXN 170,924 36 28,215 39 -32,249 59 4,034 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 55,990 48 38,095 88 -39,436 13 1,341 80 Bitcoin 11,644 63 806 100 -875 0 69 15   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,776 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.5 3.4 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.0 67.2 3.5 – Net Position: 36,213 -39,506 3,293 – Gross Longs: 53,519 2,105 5,449 – Gross Shorts: 17,306 41,611 2,156 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.2 9.0 52.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.5 -7.2 -0.5   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 20,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,529 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 52.7 12.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.8 59.9 7.7 – Net Position: 20,339 -51,517 31,178 – Gross Longs: 230,770 372,113 85,455 – Gross Shorts: 210,431 423,630 54,277 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.2 61.4 26.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.2 -0.5 14.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,598 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.5 79.4 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.7 42.3 14.1 – Net Position: -79,241 94,344 -15,103 – Gross Longs: 26,613 201,647 20,811 – Gross Shorts: 105,854 107,303 35,914 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.9 85.5 24.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.0 21.6 1.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -102,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,454 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.0 84.7 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.4 37.0 14.0 – Net Position: -102,309 115,062 -12,753 – Gross Longs: 12,113 204,417 20,933 – Gross Shorts: 114,422 89,355 33,686 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.9 91.8 27.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -5.0 17.6   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,763 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.8 74.5 15.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.0 16.0 42.6 – Net Position: -16,592 31,181 -14,589 – Gross Longs: 5,240 39,722 8,094 – Gross Shorts: 21,832 8,541 22,683 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 4.7 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 72.3 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 12.9 -19.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,407 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.8 52.7 20.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.4 44.4 19.3 – Net Position: -14,496 12,591 1,905 – Gross Longs: 36,069 79,825 31,228 – Gross Shorts: 50,565 67,234 29,323 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.5 75.0 33.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.4 33.9 -43.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.3 60.4 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.6 27.1 17.7 – Net Position: -44,642 54,437 -9,795 – Gross Longs: 41,473 98,903 19,187 – Gross Shorts: 86,115 44,466 28,982 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.4 59.5 28.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.6 24.0 -60.9   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -17,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,996 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 71.1 3.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.9 35.9 9.8 – Net Position: -17,767 21,390 -3,623 – Gross Longs: 14,998 43,219 2,358 – Gross Shorts: 32,765 21,829 5,981 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.5 63.4 10.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.2 32.7 -57.5   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,725 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.5 49.1 4.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.0 67.9 1.7 – Net Position: 28,215 -32,249 4,034 – Gross Longs: 77,819 83,844 7,000 – Gross Shorts: 49,604 116,093 2,966 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.4 59.4 60.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.6 -11.0 -3.5   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,778 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.8 16.9 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.7 87.3 3.7 – Net Position: 38,095 -39,436 1,341 – Gross Longs: 42,989 9,470 3,438 – Gross Shorts: 4,894 48,906 2,097 – Long to Short Ratio: 8.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.8 12.8 80.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 8.3 -12.8   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 703 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 82.1 1.7 9.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.2 9.2 8.7 – Net Position: 806 -875 69 – Gross Longs: 9,564 194 1,081 – Gross Shorts: 8,758 1,069 1,012 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 14.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.1 -29.8 -13.0   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.  
Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

Currency Speculators reboot their Euro bullish bets to a 6-Week High

Invest Macro Invest Macro 28.05.2022 21:32
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Click to Enlarge Highlighting the COT currency data is the bounce-back for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculative positions jumped by over +18,000 contracts this week and rose for a third consecutive week. This week marked the second time in the past three weeks that speculator positions increased by more than +18,000 contracts (+22,907 contracts on May 10th) and now Euro bets have gained by a total of +45,308 contracts over the past three weeks. The speculator’s bullish position marks the highest standing of the past six weeks at +38,930 contracts. Euro speculator positions had recently fallen into a bearish speculative level on May 3rd (-6,378 contracts) after dropping by a total of -45,438 contracts from April 19th to May 3rd. This was the first bearish position for the Euro since early January. The speculator sentiment has been weaker so far in 2022 compared to preceding years as Euro bets are averaging just +29,199 weekly contracts in 2022. This compares to the Euro bets average of +60,837 weekly contracts over 2021 and an average of +92,464 weekly contracts over 2020. The recent improvement in Euro positions comes amid increasing expectations for the European Central Bank to start raising interest rates higher and end their negative interest rate regime in the third quarter. The Euro exchange rate recently hit its lowest level versus the US Dollar since January of 2017 with a drop to approximately 1.350 (EUR/USD) on May 13th. Since then, the Euro has rallied over the past couple of weeks and closed Friday at the 1.0733 exchange rate. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (18,591 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,826 contracts), Japanese yen (2,865 contracts), Brazil real (619 contracts), Canadian dollar (1,809 contracts), Mexican peso (1,577 contracts) and Bitcoin (43 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Australian dollar (-804 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,081 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,131 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-1,554 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,857 93 38,039 91 -40,877 7 2,838 48 EUR 708,938 86 38,930 47 -72,600 55 33,670 30 GBP 253,864 73 -80,372 16 97,042 87 -16,670 21 JPY 237,256 80 -99,444 8 106,699 88 -7,255 39 CHF 49,918 38 -19,673 31 31,694 76 -12,021 17 CAD 138,508 22 -12,687 30 6,933 71 5,754 41 AUD 158,615 51 -45,446 43 53,269 59 -7,823 33 NZD 59,279 61 -19,321 39 22,703 65 -3,382 13 MXN 177,125 39 29,792 40 -34,352 58 4,560 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 63,976 59 38,714 88 -40,501 12 1,787 86 Bitcoin 11,729 64 849 100 -817 0 -32 12   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,213 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.8 3.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 69.6 3.6 – Net Position: 38,039 -40,877 2,838 – Gross Longs: 53,675 2,157 5,076 – Gross Shorts: 15,636 43,034 2,238 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.1 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.4 6.7 47.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.5 -8.0 -39.1   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,339 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.4 51.7 12.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.9 61.9 7.6 – Net Position: 38,930 -72,600 33,670 – Gross Longs: 237,072 366,345 87,892 – Gross Shorts: 198,142 438,945 54,222 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.0 55.4 30.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.0 -3.4 19.8   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,241 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.2 80.3 7.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.9 42.1 14.1 – Net Position: -80,372 97,042 -16,670 – Gross Longs: 25,936 203,802 19,107 – Gross Shorts: 106,308 106,760 35,777 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.1 87.1 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.7 15.4 2.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,309 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.0 81.0 10.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.9 36.0 13.5 – Net Position: -99,444 106,699 -7,255 – Gross Longs: 16,567 192,215 24,858 – Gross Shorts: 116,011 85,516 32,113 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.6 87.7 38.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.6 -12.3 26.0   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,592 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.7 80.0 16.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.1 16.5 40.7 – Net Position: -19,673 31,694 -12,021 – Gross Longs: 1,355 39,913 8,308 – Gross Shorts: 21,028 8,219 20,329 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.8 76.2 16.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 12.1 -12.4   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,496 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.9 54.1 23.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 49.1 19.0 – Net Position: -12,687 6,933 5,754 – Gross Longs: 28,999 74,953 32,048 – Gross Shorts: 41,686 68,020 26,294 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.4 71.1 41.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 32.1 -30.9   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,642 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.1 62.7 11.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.7 29.1 16.7 – Net Position: -45,446 53,269 -7,823 – Gross Longs: 36,579 99,401 18,615 – Gross Shorts: 82,025 46,132 26,438 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.7 58.6 33.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.5 26.4 -45.5   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,767 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.1 76.7 3.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.7 38.4 9.4 – Net Position: -19,321 22,703 -3,382 – Gross Longs: 10,749 45,458 2,202 – Gross Shorts: 30,070 22,755 5,584 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.8 65.4 13.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.9 35.7 -46.9   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,215 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.9 47.7 4.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.1 67.1 1.7 – Net Position: 29,792 -34,352 4,560 – Gross Longs: 83,031 84,474 7,605 – Gross Shorts: 53,239 118,826 3,045 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.1 58.5 62.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -6.2 -0.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,095 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 70.5 22.1 6.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.9 85.4 3.2 – Net Position: 38,714 -40,501 1,787 – Gross Longs: 45,076 14,132 3,826 – Gross Shorts: 6,362 54,633 2,039 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.1 to 1 0.3 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.4 11.8 85.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 8.2 -12.2   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 43 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 806 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 82.9 1.2 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.7 8.2 9.4 – Net Position: 849 -817 -32 – Gross Longs: 9,723 141 1,072 – Gross Shorts: 8,874 958 1,104 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 3.6 12.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.0 -23.6 -6.9   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Swing Overview – Week 20 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 20 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 02.06.2022 16:36
The Swing Overview – Week 20 The markets remain volatile and fragile, as shown by the VIX fear index, which has again surpassed the level 30 points. However, equity indices are at interesting supports and there could be some short-term recovery. The euro has bounced off its support in anticipation of tighter monetary policy and the gold is holding its price tag above $1,800 per troy ounce. Is the gold back in investors' favor again? Macroeconomic data The week started with a set of worse data from the Chinese economy, which showed that industrial production contracted by 2.9% year-on-year basis and the retail sales fell by 11.1%. The data shows the latest measures for the country's current COVID-19 outbreak are taking a toll on the economy. To support the slowing economy, China cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.15% on Friday morning, more than analysts expected. While this will not be enough to stave off current downside risks, markets may respond to expectation of more easing in the future. On a positive note, data from the US showed retail sales rose by 0.9% in April and industrial production rose by 1.1% in April. Inflation data in Europe was important. It showed that inflation in the euro area slowed down a little, reaching 7.4% in April compared to 7.5% in March. In Canada, on the other hand, the inflation continued to rise, reaching 6.8% (6.7% in March) and in the UK inflation was 9% in April (7% in the previous month). Several factors are contributing to the higher inflation figures: the ongoing war in Ukraine, problems in logistics chains and the effects of the lockdown in China. Concerns about the impact of higher inflation are showing up in the bond market. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield has come down from the 3.2% it reached on 9 May and is currently at 2.8%. This means that demand for bonds is rising and they are once again becoming an asset for times of uncertainty.  Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on a daily chart   Equity indices on supports Global equities fell significantly in the past week, reaching significant price supports. Thus, there could be some form of short-term bounce. Although a cautious rally began on Thursday, which was then boosted by China's decision to cut interest rates in the early hours of Friday, there is still plenty of fear among investors and according to Louis Dudley of Federated Hermes, cash holdings have reached its highest level since September 2001, suggesting strong bearish sentiment. Supply chain problems have been highlighted by companies such as Cisco Systems, which has warned of persistent parts shortages. That knocked its shares down by 13.7%. The drop made it the latest big-stock company to post its biggest decline in more than a decade last week. The main risks that continue to cause volatility and great uncertainty are thus leading investors to buy "safe" assets such as the US bonds and the Swiss franc. Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart From a technical analysis perspective, the US SP 500 index continues to move in a downtrend as the market has formed a lower low while being below both the SMA 100 and EMA 50 moving averages on the H4 and daily charts. The nearest resistance is 4,080 - 4,100. The next resistance is at 4,140 and especially 4,293 - 4,300. Support is at 3,860 - 3,900 level. German DAX index The index continues to move in a downtrend along with the major world indices. The price has reached the support which is at 13,680 – 13,700 and the moving average EMA 50 on the H4 chart is above the SMA 100. This could indicate a short-term signal for some upward correction. However, the main trend according to the daily chart is still downwards. The nearest resistance is at 14,260 - 14,330 level. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The euro has bounced off its support The EUR/USD currency pair benefited last week from the US dollar moving away from its 20-year highs while on the euro, investors are expecting a tightening economy and a rise in interest rates, which the ECB has not risen yet as one of the few banks. Figure 4: The EURUSD on H4 and daily chart   Significant support is at the price around 1.0350 - 1.040. Current resistance is at 1.650 - 1.700.   The Gold in investors' attention again The gold has underperformed over the past month, falling by 10% since April when the price reached USD 2,000 per ounce. But there is now strong risk aversion in the markets, as indicated by the stock markets, which have fallen. The gold, on the other hand, has started to rise. Inflation fears are a possible reason, and investors have begun to accumulate the gold for protection against rising prices. The second reason is that the gold is inversely correlated with the US dollar. The dollar has come down from its 20-year highs, which has allowed the gold to bounce off its support.  Figure 5: The gold on H4 and daily chart The first resistance is at $1,860 per ounce. The support is at $1,830 - $1,840 per ounce. The next support is then at $1,805 - $1,807 and especially at $1,800 per ounce.
Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios?

Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios?

Purple Trading Purple Trading 03.06.2022 09:12
Why do we voluntarily disclose our clients' loss ratios? Why rather click on an ad from a brokerage firm that states that 70% of their clients' accounts are loss-making than an ad from a broker that does not disclose this statistic at all? Come with us to delve into the ins and outs of broker licensing and learn what protections you are legally entitled to as a client. Broker's licence The operation of a brokerage company involves many minor acts anchored in legislation. From the operation of the broker as a firm with employees; arranging the opening of client accounts to handling client deposits and managing the online platform through which clients trade. For all of this, a broker needs a license. While this can be issued by almost any state authority, licences of some states are more desirable than that of others. And that is due to variety of reasons. Licenses issued in so-called offshore states allow brokers to provide their clients with very attractive trading conditions. For example, the financial leverage that allows a client to multiply his or her trading position and with it also potential earnings (as well as losses) can often go as high as 1:1000 for offshore licenses. However, when it comes to client protection, offshore licenses fall somewhat short. Client protection takes many forms and one of them is the wording of the mentioned disclaimer. Thus, if you see a disclaimer below the image of an advertisement that does not state the percentage of loss but only somewhat vaguely warns of the potential risk, it is very likely that the broker to whom the advertisement belongs has an offshore license. Image: Purple Trading banner ad (see disclaimer below the button) What is a disclaimer The short phrase "XY% of client accounts lose money" and its other small permutations, which you can see for example under our online advertisements, are part of the so-called disclaimer. The disclaimer takes many forms, from a single sentence under a banner ad on Facebook to a multi-paragraph colossus in the footer of the broker's website. The purpose of the disclaimer is simple - to highlight, to those interested in trading on financial markets, the potential risks of this activity and to disclaim broker’s responsibility for their client’s eventual failure. However, the overall message of the disclaimer might be written differently. Because sometimes we see loss percentages under the advertisement of Broker A, while Broker B's disclaimer merely tells us that trading is risky. No percentage, nothing more. Image: Sample of a shorter disclaimer on the broker's page Offshore vs EU license The European Union's legal environment is characterized by a much stricter regulatory approach. This applies to the control of pharmaceuticals, and foodstuffs, but also, for example, to the control of brokerage companies. This sector is dealt with by ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority), to which the regulators of all countries within the EU have to answer (including the regulator of Purple Trading, the Cypriot CySEC). It is ESMA that takes it upon itself to protect consumers (in this case, investors and retail traders in the financial markets). And it does so in all sorts of ways. The aforementioned client account loss ratios on brokers' marketing materials are one of them.   Other ESMA protections include:   Reduced financial leverage Financial leverage is the ratio of the amount of capital a trader puts into an account to the funds provided by the broker. In simple terms, it is essentially borrowed capital from the broker, which is not reflected in the balance of money in your account, but allows you to trade a greater volume of transactions than you could with your own money. More experienced traders can use leverage to increase their profits many times over. However, as well as profits, leverage also multiplies losses, so less-experienced traders should be wary of using leverage generously. That's also why ESMA capped leverage limit for retail clients at 1:30 in 2018, and higher leverage (up to 1:400) can only be provided by brokers to clients who have met a number of strict criteria to qualify as a so-called Professional Client.   Protection against negative balance A key aspect of client protection. If a client's trade that he had "leveraged" fails and the multiplied loss puts him in the red, the broker will pay the entire amount that is "in the red" from his pocket. Thus, the client can never lose more money than he has deposited in his account and consequently become a debtor. Negative balance protection is compulsory for all brokers operating in the EU. It is not compulsory for offshore brokers, which, combined with the high leverage offered there, can lead to very unfortunate situations.   Segregation of client deposits Forex and online trading, in general, has come a long way since its beginning in 2008. Especially in the early days, the online trading environment was highly unregulated and it was not uncommon for brokers to use capital from client deposits to fund their operations. More than that, there were also cases where the client’s capital was outright misused to enrich a select few. Brokers operating in the EU are obliged to secure clients’ funds in many ways. One is depositing client capital in accounts segregated from the capital brokers use to finance their operations. What if the broker fails to provide his clients with these guarantees? Brokers subject to such strict regulatory authorities as CySEC (cypriot based regulator under ESMA) must undergo regular audits. As part of these audits, the regulator monitors whether all the measures resulting from the licence granted by the regulator are being complied with. Should this not be the case, the broker is usually subject to a hefty fine and often even the suspension of its licence. This means that broker cannot really afford not to comply with the client protection principles of the EU regulatory environment. Conclusion Voluntary disclosure of client account loss rates under broker advertisements may seem odd. However, it is a positive signal that lets you know that the broker in question is highly regulated. Therefore, if you choose to trade with them, you are protected by a number of legislative regulations that the broker will not dare to violate. See which EU broker has the best disclaimer number
EUR/USD In Focus! ECB Meeting In Sintra Is Like A Blockbuster Starring Lagarde, Powell And Bailey

Euro Currency Speculators continue to boost their bullish bets for 4th Week

Invest Macro Invest Macro 04.06.2022 22:45
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data was the further gains in bullish bets for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past ten weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, Euro bets have risen by a total of +58,650 contracts, going from -6,378 net positions on May 3rd to a total of +52,272 net positions this week. This week marks the highest Euro speculator standing in the past twelve weeks. The recent improvement in Euro positions has taken place with a very strong change in sentiment as just four weeks ago the overall position had fallen into bearish territory. The Euro sentiment has been so bad that analysts have been making predictions for an inevitable decline of the Euro into parity versus the dollar. However, recently there has been rising expectations that the European Central Bank will be more hawkish towards interest rates in the near future (despite the weak outlook for EU GDP growth) and will end their negative interest rate policy. Over the past few weeks, the EUR/USD exchange rate has rebounded after falling to a multi-year low of 1.0350 in early May. This week the EUR/USD hit a weekly high of 1.0787 before closing at the 1.0719 exchange rate. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (13,342 contracts), Brazil real (6,602 contracts), British pound sterling (6,267 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,680 contracts), Mexican peso (5,657 contracts), Japanese yen (5,005 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (597 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-501 contracts), Australian dollar (-3,236 contracts), Swiss franc (-785 contracts) and Bitcoin (-446 contracts). Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the currency markets are below their midpoint (50 percent) of the last 3 years. The Brazil Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are currently in extreme bullish levels. Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the recent strong weakness in the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD) as well as the Swiss franc. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend May-31-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index USD Index 63,863 98 37,538 91 -41,327 6 3,789 58 EUR 706,317 85 52,272 51 -85,186 52 32,914 29 GBP 252,881 72 -74,105 21 87,172 81 -13,067 29 JPY 239,080 81 -94,439 11 105,049 87 -10,610 32 CHF 49,579 40 -20,458 10 29,851 87 -9,393 26 CAD 135,929 21 -7,007 34 -327 68 7,334 44 AUD 153,661 48 -48,682 40 51,128 57 -2,446 46 NZD 55,134 53 -18,724 40 21,374 63 -2,650 21 MXN 212,843 55 35,449 42 -40,143 56 4,694 63 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 74,146 73 45,316 95 -47,670 5 2,354 92 Bitcoin 10,900 58 403 92 -503 0 100 15   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,039 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.9 3.7 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 68.4 2.8 – Net Position: 37,538 -41,327 3,789 – Gross Longs: 54,859 2,355 5,605 – Gross Shorts: 17,321 43,682 1,816 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.1 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.5 5.9 58.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.6 -9.0 5.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,930 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 51.7 12.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.1 63.8 7.7 – Net Position: 52,272 -85,186 32,914 – Gross Longs: 236,553 365,434 87,138 – Gross Shorts: 184,281 450,620 54,224 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.0 51.9 28.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 -10.1 24.0   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -74,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,372 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.2 76.6 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.5 42.2 12.9 – Net Position: -74,105 87,172 -13,067 – Gross Longs: 30,788 193,786 19,446 – Gross Shorts: 104,893 106,614 32,513 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.6 81.2 28.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.9 8.4 1.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -94,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,444 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 82.2 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.9 38.3 13.9 – Net Position: -94,439 105,049 -10,610 – Gross Longs: 15,201 196,584 22,605 – Gross Shorts: 109,640 91,535 33,215 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.7 86.9 31.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -12.1 24.5   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,673 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.3 75.6 17.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.6 15.4 36.3 – Net Position: -20,458 29,851 -9,393 – Gross Longs: 2,641 37,473 8,596 – Gross Shorts: 23,099 7,622 17,989 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.3 87.0 25.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.5 10.4 7.5   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,687 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.5 51.5 24.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.6 51.7 18.6 – Net Position: -7,007 -327 7,334 – Gross Longs: 30,520 70,006 32,660 – Gross Shorts: 37,527 70,333 25,326 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.7 68.5 44.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.7 32.5 -21.5   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,446 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.4 63.1 12.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.1 29.9 14.4 – Net Position: -48,682 51,128 -2,446 – Gross Longs: 32,897 97,031 19,659 – Gross Shorts: 81,579 45,903 22,105 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.7 57.0 46.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 22.6 -25.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,321 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.6 76.2 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.6 37.4 9.8 – Net Position: -18,724 21,374 -2,650 – Gross Longs: 9,179 42,010 2,762 – Gross Shorts: 27,903 20,636 5,412 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.8 63.3 21.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -32.0 32.2 -20.4   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,792 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.8 41.8 3.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.1 60.6 1.3 – Net Position: 35,449 -40,143 4,694 – Gross Longs: 114,480 88,894 7,396 – Gross Shorts: 79,031 129,037 2,702 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.5 56.1 62.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -5.8 0.6   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,714 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 71.3 22.4 5.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.2 86.7 2.7 – Net Position: 45,316 -47,670 2,354 – Gross Longs: 52,896 16,595 4,372 – Gross Shorts: 7,580 64,265 2,018 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.0 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.2 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.9 4.8 92.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.7 -0.6 -1.6     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 849 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.6 1.5 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.9 6.1 8.6 – Net Position: 403 -503 100 – Gross Longs: 8,680 159 1,033 – Gross Shorts: 8,277 662 933 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND:       – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.5 23.2 15.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:       – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.3 -20.4 -6.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Swing Overview - Week 22 2022

The Swing Overview - Week 22 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.06.2022 13:59
The Swing Overview - Week 22 Equity indices continued to rise for a second week despite rising inflation and sanctions against Russia. Economic data indicate optimistic consumer expectations and the easing of the Covid-19 measures in China also brought some relief to the markets. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 1.5%. The Eurozone inflation hit a new record of 8.1%, giving further fuel to the ECB to raise interest rates, which is supporting the euro to strengthen.   Macroeconomic data The US consumer confidence in economic growth for May came in at 106.4. The market was expecting 103.9. This optimism points to an expected increase in consumer spendings, which is a positive development. The optimism was also confirmed by data from the manufacturing sector. The ISM PMI index in manufacturing rose by 56.1 in May, an improvement on the April reading of 55.4. The manufacturing sector is therefore expecting further expansion.   On the other hand, data from the labour market were disappointing. The ADP Non Farm Employment indicator (private sector job growth) was well below expectations as the economy created only 128k new jobs in May (the market was expecting 300k new jobs). The unemployment claims data held at the standard 200k level. However, the crucial indicator from the labour market will be Friday's NFP data.   Quarterly wage growth for 1Q 2022 was 12.6% (previous quarter was 3.9%). This figure is a leading indicator on inflation. Faster inflation growth could lead to a higher-than-expected 0.50% rate hike at the Fed's June meeting.   The US 10-year Treasury yields have rebounded from 2.6% and have started to rise again. They are currently around 2.9%. However, the US Dollar Index has not yet reacted to the rise in yields. The reason is that the euro, which has appreciated significantly in recent days, has the largest weight in the USD index. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index has continued to strengthen in recent days. The market seems to be accepting the expected 0.50% rate hike and while economic data points to some slowdown, forward looking consumers‘ and managers’ expectations are optimistic.  Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The US SP 500 index is approaching a significant resistance level, which is in the 4,197-4,204 range. The next one is at 4,293 - 4,306. The nearest support is at 4 075 - 4 086.    German DAX index Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart Germany's manufacturing PMI for May came in at 54.8. The previous month it was 54, 6. Thus, managers expect expansion in the manufacturing sector. Surprisingly, German exports rose in April despite the disruption of trade relations with Russia. Exports in Germany grew by 4.4% even though exports to Russia fell by 10%.  The positive data has an impact on the DAX index. However, the bulls in DAX may be discouraged by the expected ECB interest rate hike.   The DAX has reached resistance in the 14,600 - 14,640 area. The nearest significant support is at 14,300 - 14,330, where the horizontal resistance is coincident with the moving average EMA 50 on the H4 chart.   The euro continues to rise Bulls on the euro were supported by inflation data, which reached a record high of 8.1% in the eurozone for the month of May. Inflation increased by 0.8% on a monthly basis compared to April. Information from the manufacturing sector exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI for May coming in at 54.6, indicating optimism in the economy. The ECB will meet on Thursday 9/6/2022 and it might be surprising. While analysts do not expect a rate hike at this meeting, rising inflation may prompt the ECB to act faster.  Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart The EUR/USD currency pair is reacting to the rate hike expectations by gradual strengthening. A resistance is at 1.0780 The nearest support is now at 1.0629 - 1.0640 and then at 1.0540 - 1.0550.   The Bank of Canada raised the interest rate The GDP in Canada for Q1 2022 grew by 2.89% year-on-year (3.23% in the previous period). On a month-on-month basis, the GDP grew by 0.7% (0.9% in February). This points to slowing economic growth.  Canada's manufacturing PMI for May came in at 56.8 (56.2 in April ), an upbeat development. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 0.50% to 1.5% as expected by analysts. In addition to the rate hike, the Canadian dollar is positively affected by the rise in oil prices as Canada is a major exporter. Figure 5: The USD/CAD on H4 and daily chart The USD/CAD currency pair is currently in a downward movement. The nearest resistance according to the daily chart is 1.2710-1.2730. Support according to the daily chart is in the range of 1.2400-1.2470.  
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 07.06.2022 15:38
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 31/5/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index fell by 501 contracts last week to 37,538 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,184 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,685 contracts. Significant fact is the further bullish movement in speculators' positions for the euro currency futures contracts. This week, the euro speculators increased their bullish positions for the fourth consecutive week and the sixth time in the last ten weeks. Over the past four weeks, speculators' total net positions in the euro have increased by a total of +58,650 contracts, from -6,378 net positions on May 3 to a total of +52,272 net positions last week. Total net positions for the euro are the highest in twelve weeks. The recent improvement in euro positions has come with a very significant change in sentiment, as just four weeks ago the total position had fallen into bearish territory. Sentiment in the euro was so bad that analysts were talking about the inevitable decline of the euro to parity against the dollar. Recently, however, expectations have been growing that the European Central Bank will become more hawkish on interest rates in the near future and end its negative interest rate policy, causing the euro to strengthen. In addition to the euro, speculators' total net positions rose on the British pound, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen. On the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc, total net positions fell last week. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907 Apr 26, 2022 33879 22201 -69621 -27651 66 -95535 20881 -12869   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com     The Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 688449 222993 200792 22201 12510 1990 11090 -9100 Weak bullish         Total change 30378 15550 -5421 20971     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1   The total net positions of speculators reached 52,272 contracts last week, up by 13,342 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 519 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 13,861 contracts. This data suggests bullish sentiment as the total net positions are positive while there has been an increase. Open interest fell by 2,621 contracts in the last week. This shows that the move that occurred in the euro last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. The price has reached the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, at which it is oscillating, showing that there is a resistance here. Long-term resistance: 1.0800 – 1.0840 Support: 1.0620 – 1-0630. The next support is in the zone 1.0340 – 1.0420.   The British pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10, 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 272792 40436 110057 -69621 23263 3625 14332 -10707 Bearish         Total change 3352 -6023 9168 -15191     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 74,105 contracts, up by 6,267 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,852 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,415 contracts. This indicates weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 983 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore a weak price action. Long-term resistance: 1.2700 – 1.2760.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200.     The Australian dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 147090 47105 74756 -27651 -219 7904 6718 1186 Weak bearish         Total change 6352 -6304 13541 -19845     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to 48,682 contracts, down by 3,236 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,682 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 446 contracts. This data suggests bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, while at the same time there has been a further decline in the past week. There was a decline in open interest of 4,954 contracts last week. This means that the upward movement that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and it was therefore weak price action. The price has currently reached the horizontal resistance at 0.7260 where a reaction occurred. If this resistance is  broken, a further bullish movement could continue. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850     The New Zealand dollar   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bullish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish Apr 26, 2022 46510 22085 22019 66 5412 3004 3303 -299 Weak bullish         Total change 14036 -9902 9187 -19089     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached -18,724 contracts last week, having grown by 597 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,570 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,167 contracts. This data suggests that there has been a weakening of bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but there has also been an increase in total net positions. The open interest fell by 4,145 contracts last week.  The move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was not supported by the volume and therefore the move was weak. The NZD/USD has reached the resistance band at 0.6570 and also the EMA 50 moving average on the daily chart, which is a strong confluence and there has already been some bearish reaction there. If this resistance is broken, further strengthening could occur.  Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6560 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280     Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

COT Week 23 Charts: Forex Speculators Positions mostly higher led by Canadian dollar & Swiss franc

Invest Macro Invest Macro 12.06.2022 17:16
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. COT Currencies market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency markets was the Canadian dollar (5,945 contracts) and the Swiss franc (4,326 contracts) with the British pound sterling (3,295 contracts), Japanese yen (2,793 contracts), Brazil real (1,389 contracts), Australian dollar (786 contracts), US Dollar Index (400 contracts) and Bitcoin (87 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Mexican peso (-2,723 contracts) and Euro (-1,729 contracts) with New Zealand dollar (-1,047 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. Currency Speculators Notes: US Dollar Index speculator bets have continued their upward climb in four out of the past five weeks as well as nine out of the past twelve weeks. USD Index remains in an extreme-bullish strength level and is very close (currently +37,938 contracts) to the highest net speculator position (+39,078 contracts on January 4th) of this recent bullish cycle, emphasizing the strong speculator bias. The Euro speculator position saw a pullback this week (-1,729 contracts) after huge gains in the previous three weeks (+58,650 contracts). Speculator sentiment is still pretty strong currently (+50,543 contracts) despite a very weak exchange rate (EURUSD at 1.0524 to close the week) and weak outlook for the Eurozone economy with rising inflation. British pound sterling speculator sentiment has crumbled in the past few months. The net speculator position managed to poke its head above its negative bias on February 15th with a total of +2,237 net contracts but sentiment has deteriorated since. From February 22nd to this week, speculator bets have dropped by a total of -73,047 contracts and recently hit a 139-week low on May 24th, the lowest level of speculator sentiment dating back to September of 2019. Japanese yen speculator positions are the most bearish of the major currencies just under -100,000 contracts. The USDJPY exchange rate is at a 20-year high and there has been no sign that the BOJ is interest in raising interest rates while other central banks commit to higher rates. These factors seem to say that the rout of the yen will continue ahead for some time (but how far can it go?). Commodity currency speculator bets are on the defensive lately. Australian dollar spec bets have fallen in five out of the past six weeks. Canadian dollar bets are now in bearish territory for a 5th straight week. New Zealand dollar speculator positions have declined in six out of the past seven weeks and the net position has now fallen to the lowest level since March of 2020 Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Brazilian Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are all in extreme-bullish levels at the current moment. On the opposite end of the extreme spectrum, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are very weak in relative speculator sentiment and sit in the extreme-bearish levels. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the commodity currencies have been losing sentiment over the last six weeks. The Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have all had changes of at least -18.8 percent in their strength scores with the New Zealand dollar leading the decline with a -33.3 percent drop in six weeks. The US Dollar Index, Euro and Mexican Peso have had small but rising scores over the past six weeks. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-07-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 65,163 100 37,938 91 -41,863 5 3,925 59 EUR 730,667 95 50,543 51 -88,189 51 37,646 37 GBP 258,623 76 -70,810 23 80,465 77 -9,655 36 JPY 266,054 100 -91,646 12 109,109 89 -17,463 18 CHF 49,794 41 -16,132 16 27,216 87 -11,084 20 CAD 167,373 42 -1,062 40 -13,401 58 14,463 59 AUD 166,422 57 -47,896 40 47,413 54 483 54 NZD 63,540 70 -19,771 38 22,681 65 -2,910 19 MXN 248,184 72 32,726 41 -38,117 57 5,391 66 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 72,371 70 46,705 96 -48,954 4 2,249 91 Bitcoin 10,990 58 490 93 -529 0 39 14   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,538 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.1 3.2 8.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 67.5 2.8 – Net Position: 37,938 -41,863 3,925 – Gross Longs: 55,460 2,090 5,780 – Gross Shorts: 17,522 43,953 1,855 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.2 5.0 59.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.0 -8.8 13.4   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,272 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 50.0 12.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.6 62.1 7.3 – Net Position: 50,543 -88,189 37,646 – Gross Longs: 230,248 365,628 90,978 – Gross Shorts: 179,705 453,817 53,332 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 51.0 36.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -11.9 22.7   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -70,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,105 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.4 74.1 8.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.8 43.0 12.1 – Net Position: -70,810 80,465 -9,655 – Gross Longs: 34,618 191,742 21,602 – Gross Shorts: 105,428 111,277 31,257 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.0 77.3 35.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.9 -4.4 17.9   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,439 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.9 79.3 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.4 38.3 15.3 – Net Position: -91,646 109,109 -17,463 – Gross Longs: 18,466 210,889 23,226 – Gross Shorts: 110,112 101,780 40,689 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.4 88.9 18.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -2.8 3.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,458 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 69.3 18.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 14.6 41.1 – Net Position: -16,132 27,216 -11,084 – Gross Longs: 2,609 34,494 9,378 – Gross Shorts: 18,741 7,278 20,462 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 4.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.6 86.9 20.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 2.4 6.0   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,007 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.5 44.2 22.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.1 52.2 13.7 – Net Position: -1,062 -13,401 14,463 – Gross Longs: 39,288 74,044 37,463 – Gross Shorts: 40,350 87,445 23,000 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.2 57.6 58.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.8 14.2 9.7   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,682 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.1 59.9 14.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.8 31.4 14.2 – Net Position: -47,896 47,413 483 – Gross Longs: 31,720 99,747 24,197 – Gross Shorts: 79,616 52,334 23,714 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.4 54.3 53.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.8 13.8 4.3   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -19,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,724 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.4 69.1 4.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.5 33.4 8.6 – Net Position: -19,771 22,681 -2,910 – Gross Longs: 12,310 43,890 2,538 – Gross Shorts: 32,081 21,209 5,448 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.1 65.4 18.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.3 31.2 -4.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,449 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.0 35.4 3.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.8 50.8 1.2 – Net Position: 32,726 -38,117 5,391 – Gross Longs: 119,162 87,884 8,441 – Gross Shorts: 86,436 126,001 3,050 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.3 56.9 65.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.4 -6.1 8.3   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,316 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.1 13.5 5.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.5 81.2 2.3 – Net Position: 46,705 -48,954 2,249 – Gross Longs: 58,657 9,780 3,931 – Gross Shorts: 11,952 58,734 1,682 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.3 3.5 91.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.2 -0.2 4.4   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 87 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 403 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.5 1.5 9.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.1 6.4 9.3 – Net Position: 490 -529 39 – Gross Longs: 8,959 169 1,063 – Gross Shorts: 8,469 698 1,024 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.2 21.6 13.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.5 -6.4 0.6   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Swing Overview – Week 23 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 23 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 08:53
The Swing Overview - Week 23 Major global stock indices broke through their support levels after several days of range movement in response to the tightening economy, the ongoing war in Ukraine, slowing economic growth and high inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its interest rate by 0.50%. The ECB decided to start raising interest rates by 0.25% from July 2022. The winner of last week is the US dollar, which continues to strengthen. Macroeconomic data Data from the US labour market was highly anticipated. The job creation indicator, the so-called NFP, surprised the markets positively. Analysts expected that 325,000 new jobs had been created in May. In fact, 390 thousand jobs were created in the US. Unemployment is at 3.6%. The information on the growth of hourly wages, which is a leading indicator of inflation, was important. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in May, less than analysts who expected 0.4%.   Unemployment claims reached 229,000 this week. This is the highest levels since 3/3/2022. However, this is not an extreme increase. The number of claims is still in the pre-pandemic average area. Nevertheless, it can be seen that since 7/4/2022, when the number of applications reached 166 thousand, the number of applications is slowly increasing and this indicator will be closely monitored.  The ISM index of purchasing managers in the US service sector reached 55.9 in May. This is lower than the previous month's reading of 57.1. A value above 50 still points to expansion in the sector although the decline in the reading indicates  economy.   The yield on the US 10-year bond is close to its peak and is currently around 3%. The rise in yields has been followed by a rise in the US dollar. The dollar index has surpassed 103. The reason for the strengthening of the dollar is the aggressive tightening of the economy by the US Fed, which began reducing the central bank's balance sheet on June 1, 2022. In practice, this means that the Fed will let expire the government bonds it previously bought as part of QE and will not reinvest them further. The first tranche of bonds will expire on June 15, so the effect of this operation remains to be seen. Figure 1: The US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index has been moving in a narrow range for the past few days between 4,200, where resistance is and 4,080, where support has been tested several times. This support was broken and has become the new resistance as we can see on the H4 chart.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The catalyst for this strong initiation move is the strong US dollar and rising bond yields. Therefore, the current resistance is in the 4,075 - 4,085 range.  The nearest support is 3,965 - 3,970 according to the H4 chart. The next support is 3,879 - 3,907.   German DAX index Macroeconomic data that affected the DAX was manufacturing orders for April, which fell 2.7% month-on-month, while analysts were expecting a 0.3% rise. Industrial production in Germany rose by 0.7% in April (expectations were for 1.0%). The war in Ukraine has a strong impact on the weaker figures. The catalyst for breaking support was the ECB's decision to raise interest rates, which the bank will start implementing from July 2022. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX is below the SMA 100 moving average according to the daily and H4 chart. This shows a bearish sentiment. The nearest resistance is 14,300 - 14,335. Support is at 13,870 - 13,900 according to the H4 chart.   The ECB left the interest rate unchanged  The ECB left interest rates unchanged on June 9, 2022, so the key rate is still at 0.0%. However, the bank said that it will proceed with a rate hike from July, when the rate is expected to rise by 0.25%. The next hike will then be in September, probably again by 0.25%. The bank pointed to the high inflation rate, which is expected to reach 6.8% for 2022. Inflation is expected to fall to 3.4% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024.  Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the bank, a significant risk is Russia's unjustified aggression against Ukraine, which is causing problems in supply chains and pushing energy and some commodity prices up. The result is a slowdown in the growth of the European economy. The bank also announced that it will end its asset purchase program as of July 1, 2022. This is the soft end of this program, as the money that will flow from matured assets will continue to be reinvested by the bank. In practice, this means that the ECB's balance sheet will not be further inflated, but for now, unlike the Fed’s balance sheet, the bank has no plans to reduce its balance sheet. This, coupled with the more moderate rate hike plans and the existence of the above risks, has supported the dollar and the euro has begun to weaken sharply in response to the ECB announcement. The resistance is 1.0760-1.0770. Current support at 1.063-1.064 is broken and it will become new resistance if the break is confirmed. The next support according to the H4 chart is 1.0530 - 1.0550.   Australian central bank surprises with aggressive approach In Australia, the central bank raised its policy rate by 0.50%. Analysts had expected the bank to raise the rate by 0.25%. Thus, the current rate on the Australian dollar is 0.80%. However, this aggressive increase did not strengthen the Australian dollar, which surprisingly weakened. The reason for this is the strong US dollar and also the risk off sentiment that is taking place in the equity indices.  Also impacting the Aussie is the situation in China, where there is zero tolerance of COVID-19. This will impact the country's economic growth, which is very likely to fall short of the 5.5% that was originally projected.  Figure 5: The AUD/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the AUD/USD currency pair has broken below the SMA 100 moving average, which is a bearish signal. The nearest resistance is 0.7140 - 0.7150. The support is in the zone 0.7030 - 0.7040. 
Crypto Focus: Prices Sink Lower as Crypto Malaise Spreads

Crypto Focus: Prices Sink Lower as Crypto Malaise Spreads

8 eightcap 8 eightcap 17.06.2022 13:26
Hi traders, well, another week, another heavy extension lower. This week’s selling really struck home as levels not seen in a while were reached on some coins. The most selling was seen on the top this week as it lost 22% while the top 25 lost 20%. Plenty of mental pain was seen over the last week as coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum hit levels not seen since 2020. Bitcoin came very close to breaking 20K, and Ethereum just missed breaking 1K. Solana hit 25.77, just about retracing the entire 2021 move. Is it a bit late to say the market is internally sick? I feel it is a bit. Confidence looks shot, and this tends to remind me of 2017/2018. Is this different? Could we see a new rally that moves are a more sustainable speed? Or have stable coins shown a fundamental weakness in the crypto world that has drawn trust out of the crypto dream? Sorry to sound so dramatic, but if you compare Bitcoin now to Bitcoin in 2017, you will see some similarities. Sirin Labs has not followed the overall market trend as it has seen ridiculous gains over the last two days. Price looks to have been helped by news that a blockchain-backed smartphone backed by football superstar Lionel Messi is set to be released in November. The market looks to approval as price of SRNUSD has exploded by over 1200% in the last two days. The post Crypto Focus: Prices Sink Lower as Crypto Malaise Spreads appeared first on Eightcap.
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 10:30
Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 7/6/2022 Total net speculator positions on the USD index rose by 400 contracts last week to 37,938 contracts. This change is the result of a 600-contract increase in long positions and a 200-contract increase in short positions. On the euro, there was a decrease in total net positions after a significant previous increase. A reduction in total net positions also occurred on the New Zealand dollar last week. Increases in total net positions occurred last week on the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. The markets experienced high volatility last week, triggered by concerns that the economy was tightening more rapidly on the back of rising inflation. As a result, equity indices have continued to fall and this risk-off sentiment has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and a weakening of more or less all currencies tracked. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators DatE USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Jun 7, 2022    37938 50543 -70810 -47896 -19771 -91646 -1062 -16132 May 31, 2022 37538 52272 -74105 -48682 -18724 -94439 -7007 -20458 May 24, 2022 38039 38930 -80372 -45446 -19321 -99444 -12687 -19673 May 17, 2022 36213 20339 -79241 -44642 -17767 -102309 -14496 -16592 May 10, 2022 34776 16529 -79598 -41714 -12996 -110454 -5407 -15763 May 03, 2022 33071 -6378 -73813 -28516 -6610 -100794 9029 -13907   Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the the end of the report.   Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com   The Euro   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 07, 2022 730667 230248 179705 50543 24350 -6305 -4576 -1729 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 706317 236553 184281 52272 -2621 -519 -13861 13342 Bullish May 24, 2022 708938 237072 198142 38930 2226 6302 -12289 18591 Bullish May 17, 2022 706712 230770 210431 20339 1666 2540 -1270 3810 Bullish May 10, 2022 705046 228230 211701 16529 10120 19781 -3126 22907 Bullish May 03, 2022 694926 208449 214827 -6378 6477 -14544 14035 -28579 Bearish         Total Change 42218 7255 -21087 28342     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EUR/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 50 543 contracts last week, down by 1 729 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 6,305 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 4,576 contracts. This data suggests weak bullish sentiment as total net positions are positive but at the same time there has been a decline. Open interest rose by 24,350 contracts in the last week. This shows that the downward movement that occurred in the euro last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The price bounced off resistance at the EMA 50 moving average and is approaching horizontal support which is in the band at 1.0400. The weakening euro is a result of the ECB's approach to inflation. The ECB announced to raise the rate by 0.25% from July, which is significantly less than the interest rate increase implemented by the US Fed.  Long-term resistance: 1.0620 – 1.0650. The next resistance is at 1.0770-1.0780. Support: 1.0340 – 1.0420 The British pound DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 258623 34618 105428 -70810 5742 3830 535 3295 Weak bullish May 31, 2022 252881 30788 104893 -74105 -983 4852 -1415 6267 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 253864 25936 106308 -80372 53 -677 454 -1131 Bearish May 17, 2022 253811 26613 105854 -79241 -10783 -2856 -3213 357 Weak bearish May 10 2022 264594 29469 109067 -79598 -3902 -4067 1718 -5785 Bearish May 03, 2022 268496 33536 107349 -73813 -4296 -6900 -2708 -4192 Bearish         Total Change -14169 -5818 -4629 -1189     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBP/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week reached - 70,810 contracts, having increased by 3,295 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 3,830 contracts and the growth in short positions by 535 contracts. This suggests weak bearish sentiment as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there has been an increase in them. Open interest rose by 5742 contracts last week, indicating that the downward movement in the pound that occurred last week was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The pound is weakening strongly in the current risk off sentiment and has reached its long term support. Long-term resistance: 1.2440 – 1.2476.    Support: 1.2160 – 1.2200   The Australian dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 166422 31720 79616 -47896 12761 -1177 -1963 786 Weak bearish May 31, 2022 153661 32897 81579 -48682 -4954 -3682 -446 -3236 Bearish May 24, 2022 158615 36579 82025 -45446 -5194 -4894 -4090 -804 Bearish May 17, 2022 163809 41473 86115 -44642 10600 4604 7532 -2928 Bearish May 10, 2022 153209 36869 78583 -41714 952 -10126 3072 13198 Bearish May 03, 2022 152257 46995 75511 -28516 5167 -110 755 -865 Bearish         Total Change 19332 -15385 4860 -20245     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,896 contracts last week, up by 786 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,177 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,963 contracts. This data suggests weak bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, as the total net positions of large speculators are negative, but at the same time there was an increase in them in the previous week. There was an increase in open interest of 12,761 contracts last week. This means that the downward movement that occurred last week on the AUD was supported by volume and it was therefore a strong price action. The Australian dollar is weakening sharply even though the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 0.50% last week. The reason for this bearish decline is the current risk-off sentiment which is particularly threatening commodity currencies, which includes the Australian dollar. Long-term resistance: 0.7250-0.7260                                                                                                              Long-term support: 0.6830-0.6850  (the support zone begins at 0.6930 according to a weekly chart).   The New Zealand dollar   DatE Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Jun 7, 2022 63540 12310 32081 -19771 8406 3131 4178 -1047 Bearish May 31, 2022 55134 9179 27903 -18724 -4145 -1570 -2167 597 Weak bearish May 24, 2022 59279 10749 30070 -19321 -1525 -4249 -2695 -1554 Bearish May 17, 2022 60804 14998 32765 -17767 4569 -205 4566 -4771 Bearish May 10, 2022 56235 15203 28199 -12996 5391 -2224 4162 -6386 Bearish May 03, 2022 50844 17427 24037 -6610 4334 -4658 2018 -6676 Bearish         Total Change 17030 -9775 10062 -19837     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZD/USD on D1 The total net positions of speculators last week amounted to -19,771 contracts, down by 1,047 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 3,131 contracts and an increase in short positions by 4,178 contracts. This data suggests that there has been bearish sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar over the past week as the total net positions of large speculators have been negative and there was further decline in them as well. Open interest rose by 8,406 contracts last week. The downward move in NZD/USD that occurred last week was supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The NZD/USD bounced off the resistance band at 0.6570 and approached significant support. The decline in the New Zealand Dollar is mainly due to risk off sentiment in equity markets. Long-term resistance: 0.6540 – 0.6570 Long-term support: 0.6220 – 0.6280   Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 5-year high while Euro bets dip into bearish level

Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 5-year high while Euro bets dip into bearish level

Invest Macro Invest Macro 18.06.2022 20:13
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. There were many really large moves this week in the COT positioning as the data was recorded on Tuesday – just one day ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 75 basis point increase in the US benchmark Fed Funds rate. Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets (Russian ruble futures positions have not been updated by the CFTC since March) we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency market positions was the Canadian dollar (24,264 contracts) and the Japanese yen (21,891 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (12,933 contracts), Swiss franc (9,324 contracts), US Dollar Index (6,538 contracts), British pound sterling (5,214 contracts), Australian dollar (4,642 contracts), Bitcoin (571 contracts) and Brazil real (508 contracts) also showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets were the Mexican peso (-59,107 contracts) and the Euro (-56,561 contracts) this week. Currency Speculators Notes: US Dollar Index speculators raised their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the seventh time in the past ten weeks. These increases pushed the large speculator standing (+44,476 contracts) to the highest level in the past two hundred and seventy-three weeks, dating back more than five years to March 21st of 2017. The most bullish level ever was +81,270 contracts on March 10th of 2015. The US dollar strength keeps rolling along and the overall standing has now remained bullish for the past fifty consecutive weeks, dating back to July of 2021. The US Dollar Index price has continued its strength as well and reached a high this week of over 105.75 which is the best level for the DXY since back in December of 2002. Euro speculators sharply dropped their positions this week by the most on record with a huge decline of -56,561 contracts. This record decline beat out the previous high of -52,107 contracts that took place on June 19th of 2018. Euro bets had been gaining over the past month and were at a total of +50,543 contracts before this week’s sharp turnaround which has now tipped the overall spec positioning into bearish territory for the first time since January. Japanese yen speculator bets surged this week (+21,891 contracts) and gained for the fifth straight week. Yen speculator positions have been in bearish territory for over a year and have been extremely week since many central banks around the world started raising their interest rates. The Bank of Japan has not raised rates and has signaled that it will not do so, creating large interest rate differentials compared to the other major currencies. Despite the spec bets increase this week, the yen exchange rate came under further pressure this week with the USDJPY price closing over the 135.00 exchange rate (and remaining near 20-year highs). Mexican Peso speculator bets fell sharply by -59,381 contracts this week and flipped the MXN speculator positioning from bullish to bearish. The weekly speculator decline is the largest fall in the past thirteen weeks and the decrease into a bearish standing is the first time since March 29th. Canadian dollar bets jumped this week by the most in the past seventy-seven weeks and brought the speculator position back into bullish territory for the first time in six weeks. CAD speculator bets have now gained for four straight weeks and the overall spec standing is residing at the highest level since July 2021. New Zealand dollar speculators also boosted their bets this week after the NZD positions had dropped in six out of the previous seven weeks. This week’s rise in weekly bets was the most in the past thirteen weeks but the overall speculator standing remains in bearish territory for the seventh straight week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (96.8 percent) are leading the strength scores and are all in extreme bullish positions. On the downside, the Mexican peso (16.1 percent) has fallen into extreme bearish positioning followed by the Japanese yen (25.9 percent) and British pound (26.7 percent) which are just above the 20 percent extreme bearish threshold. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the US Dollar Index (19.5 percent), Japanese yen (19.1 percent) and Swiss franc (18 percent) have the highest six-week trend scores currently. The Mexican peso also leads the trends on the downside with a -17.5 percent trend change. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 61,144 91 44,476 100 -47,736 0 3,260 52 EUR 668,164 69 -6,018 33 -28,495 68 34,513 32 GBP 238,322 63 -65,596 27 81,063 78 -15,467 24 JPY 232,513 77 -69,755 26 86,443 78 -16,688 20 CHF 39,362 20 -6,808 39 18,147 72 -11,339 19 CAD 175,219 47 23,202 65 -30,284 43 7,082 44 AUD 142,857 39 -43,254 45 44,710 52 -1,456 49 NZD 45,410 35 -6,838 60 9,773 45 -2,935 18 MXN 197,375 48 -26,381 16 23,148 82 3,233 57 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 69,931 67 47,213 97 -48,458 4 1,245 79 Bitcoin 12,242 68 1,061 100 -947 0 -114 10   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,938 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 86.9 2.9 9.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.2 80.9 3.8 – Net Position: 44,476 -47,736 3,260 – Gross Longs: 53,133 1,752 5,553 – Gross Shorts: 8,657 49,488 2,293 – Long to Short Ratio: 6.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 52.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.2 -19.1 7.1   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -56,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,543 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 54.1 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.9 58.3 7.5 – Net Position: -6,018 -28,495 34,513 – Gross Longs: 206,986 361,159 84,823 – Gross Shorts: 213,004 389,654 50,310 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.2 67.9 31.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.1 -1.1 5.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,810 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.3 77.2 8.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.8 43.2 15.1 – Net Position: -65,596 81,063 -15,467 – Gross Longs: 29,343 184,011 20,625 – Gross Shorts: 94,939 102,948 36,092 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.7 77.6 23.6 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -4.7 -0.5   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -69,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,646 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.0 75.6 9.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.0 38.4 16.8 – Net Position: -69,755 86,443 -16,688 – Gross Longs: 32,441 175,789 22,340 – Gross Shorts: 102,196 89,346 39,028 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.9 77.8 19.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.1 -16.5 5.7   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,132 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.9 66.2 22.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 20.1 51.7 – Net Position: -6,808 18,147 -11,339 – Gross Longs: 4,291 26,045 9,026 – Gross Shorts: 11,099 7,898 20,365 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.2 72.4 19.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.0 -19.8 17.9   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,062 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.3 45.1 16.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 62.4 12.7 – Net Position: 23,202 -30,284 7,082 – Gross Longs: 56,550 79,064 29,357 – Gross Shorts: 33,348 109,348 22,275 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 43.5 44.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.9 -14.4 6.3   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -43,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,896 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 59.9 14.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.4 28.6 16.0 – Net Position: -43,254 44,710 -1,456 – Gross Longs: 31,660 85,591 21,342 – Gross Shorts: 74,914 40,881 22,798 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.7 52.2 48.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 7.8 10.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,771 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 61.8 4.9 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.9 40.3 11.4 – Net Position: -6,838 9,773 -2,935 – Gross Longs: 14,894 28,062 2,236 – Gross Shorts: 21,732 18,289 5,171 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.8 45.5 18.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.4 -0.2 3.8   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -59,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,726 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.8 38.3 3.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 71.2 26.5 1.5 – Net Position: -26,381 23,148 3,233 – Gross Longs: 114,093 75,532 6,170 – Gross Shorts: 140,474 52,384 2,937 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.1 82.5 56.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.5 17.4 -2.9   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,705 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 83.0 12.5 4.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.5 81.8 2.8 – Net Position: 47,213 -48,458 1,245 – Gross Longs: 58,023 8,711 3,197 – Gross Shorts: 10,810 57,169 1,952 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.8 4.0 79.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.3 -5.0 -4.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 490 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 81.7 0.5 8.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.0 8.2 9.2 – Net Position: 1,061 -947 -114 – Gross Longs: 9,996 62 1,008 – Gross Shorts: 8,935 1,009 1,122 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 10.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.3 -30.9 -3.5   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Swing Overview – Week 24 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 24 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 17.06.2022 16:54
The Swing Overview - Week 24 We've had a week in which the world's major stock indices took a bloodbath in response to rising inflation, which is advancing faster than expected. Central banks have played a major part in this drama. As expected, the US, the UK and, surprisingly, Switzerland raised interest rates. Japan, on the other hand, is still one of the few countries that decided to keep interest rates at their original level of - 0.10%. Macroeconomic data The 0.75% interest rate hike to 1.75%, which was 0.25% higher than the Fed announced at the last meeting, might not have come as a surprise to the markets given that inflation for May was 8.6% on year-on-year basis (8.3% for April). The market reacted strongly in response to the inflation data, and a sell-off in equity indices and a strengthening US dollar followed.   The 0.75% rate hike is the highest since 1994 and the next Fed meeting is expected to see another rate hike again in the range of 0.50% to 0.75%. The Fed is trying to stop rising inflation with this aggressive approach. The problem is that economic projections point to slowing economic growth. Retail data for May fell by 0.3%, which was a surprise to the markets. This is the first drop in consumer spending in 2022. The Fed also lowered GDP growth projections and unemployment is expected to rise as well. All of this points to the risk of stagflation.     But the labour market data is still good. The number of initial claims in unemployment reached 229k last week, down from 232k the previous week. The US dollar hit a new high for the year at 105.86 in response to high inflation and a faster tightening economy. The US 10-year bond yields also rose, reaching 3.479%. Figure 1: The US 10-year bond yields and the USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index, like other global indices, was in a bloodbath last week as data on rising US inflation in particular surprised. Major supports according to the H4 chart were very quickly broken and the market is showing that it is still in a bearish mood. According to the daily chart, another lower low has formed which together with the lower highs confirms this bearish trend.   Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   A support according to the H4 chart is in the 3,645 - 3,675 range. The nearest resistance is at 3,820 - 3,835. A broken support in the 3,710 - 3,732 area can also be considered as resistance. The most important news is behind us and the market could take a breath for a while. The low levels could also be noticed by long-term investors who will be buying dip. But for speculators, it is very risky to speculate on a market reversal in a downtrend.   German DAX index The German DAX index offers a very similar picture to the SP 500. The ZEW economic sentiment indicator in Germany for the month of June showed a deterioration in sentiment among institutional investors and analysts, with the index reading coming in at -28.0. The ongoing war in Ukraine is undoubtedly influencing this pessimism. The end of this tragic event is still not in sight. What is clear, however, is that the longer the conflict continues, the stronger the impact on the European economy will be.    Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX is in a clear downtrend and broke through significant support at 13,300 last week. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 13,250 - 13,300. Significant resistance is at 13,650 - 13,700. A new support according to the H4 chart is at 12,950 - 12,980.   The euro has rejected lower readings  Information about higher inflation in the US and a rate hike sent the EUR/USD pair to support levels at 1.0370. However, the level was not broken and the euro then took a strong move from this area. Investors seem to assume that the ECB will have to respond with a higher than 0.25% rate hike announced at the last meeting. Figure 4: The EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart According to the H4 chart, the nearest resistance is at 1.0560 - 1.0600. The next resistance is then at 1.0760-1.0770. Current support is at 1.0340 - 1.0370 according to the daily chart.   The Bank of England raised rates as expected Rising inflation did not leave the Bank of England in dovish mood as it raised its key rate by 0.25% as expected. The current rate is 1.25%. Inflation may be approaching double digits, but the bank could not afford to be more aggressive. In Britain, economic activity has already fallen and the GDP is falling at its fastest pace in a year. On a month-on-month basis, the GDP in Britain fell by 0.3%.  Manufacturing production fell by 1% in April. Figure 5: The GBP/USD on H4 and daily chart The GBP/USD currency pair had a very dramatic week, first breaking below 1.20, only to stage an unprecedented rally later. Anyway, according to the H4 chart and also the daily chart, the pound is below the SMA 100 moving average, which indicates a bearish sentiment. There are also clear lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart, confirming the downtrend.   The UK interest rate hike did send the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.24, but the price did not stay there for long time as the pound descended from higher values, underlining the overall downtrend. The nearest resistance is at 1.24. A support is then at 1.1930 - 1.2000.   Central Bank of Japan still dovish   In the early hours of Friday morning, the Bank of Japan was also deciding on rates. There, as expected, everything remains as it was, i.e. the rate remains negative at - 0.10%. This situation means a favourable interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen in favour of the dollar. It is therefore no surprise that the USD/JPY pair has reached its highest level since 2002. However, the weak yen is a big problem for the Japanese economy, as it makes imports of basic manufacturing raw materials more expensive and thus contributes to inflation. Figure 6: The USD/JPY on H4 and monthly charts The USD/JPY pair has reached the resistance level at 134.5 - 135.0, the highest level since 2002. A support according to the H4 chart is at 131.50 - 131.80.  
Currency Speculators boost Japanese Yen bets to 15-week high while Canadian dollar bets drop sharply

Currency Speculators boost Japanese Yen bets to 15-week high while Canadian dollar bets drop sharply

Invest Macro Invest Macro 26.06.2022 13:28
By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Currency market speculator bets overall were mixed this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover (Note: Russian Ruble positions have not been updated by CFTC since March) had higher positioning this week while six markets had lower contracts for the week. Leading the gains for currency markets was the Japanese yen (11,301 contracts) and the British pound sterling (2,349 contracts) with the Australian dollar (2,648 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,415 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (534 contracts) also showing positive changes on the week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-19,097 contracts) and the Euro (-9,587 contracts) with the Brazil real (-2,868 contracts), Mexican peso (-489 contracts), Swiss franc (-349 contracts) and Bitcoin (-15 contracts) also showing lower speculator positions through June 21st. Currency Position Notables: Japanese Yen large speculator bets rose for the 6th straight week this week and this improvement has brought the overall speculator standing to the least bearish level of the past 15 weeks at -58,454 contracts. Speculators have trimmed a total of 52,000 contracts off of the total bearish position in these past six weeks after the standing hit -110,454 contracts on May 10th. Yen bets have been in bearish territory since March 13th of 2021 (67 weeks running) with the highest bearish level of the cycle occurring on April 12th at a total of -111,827 contracts. Canadian dollar bets dropped sharply by -19,097 contracts this week and fell for the first time in the last five weeks. CAD speculator bets had risen over the previous four weeks by a total of +37,698 contracts. The decline this week brings the CAD speculator position into a virtual neutral level at an overall bullish position of just +4,105 contracts as the speculator position has yet to find a sustainable trend and has been alternating between bearish and bullish net positions over the past few months. The US Dollar Index rose for a 3rd straight week this week and hit a new 5-year high level at +45,010 contracts. This is the first time the overall position has topped +45,000 contracts since March 21st of 2017 and the continued bullish sentiment for the DXY has pushed the US Dollar Index strength score (3-year range) to the very top of its range (100 percent – extreme bullish). Euro positions fell for the third straight week and dropped to its most bearish level of the past 29 weeks. The strength score for the Euro has dropped to just a 30.2 percent and it seems the speculator positioning is catching up to the bearishness of the EURUSD exchange rate. The speculator net position had been at a twelve-week high on May 31st at a total of +52,272 contracts before dropping over the past three weeks to settle at -15,605 contracts this week. Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, ranging from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish, below 20 percent is extreme bearish and 100 percent is the top of the range) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (99.7 percent) and the Brazilian Real (94 percent) are all in extreme bullish positions. On the bearish side, the Mexican Peso is the only currency currently in an extreme bearish position with a score of 15.9 percent. Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese Yen (32.0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (21.8 percent) are leading the strength trends over the past six weeks. Both of these markets have overall bearish net positions but have seen the bearish sentiment cooling off strongly. The Mexican Peso leads the downside trends for another week with a -18.6 percent score. Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Jun-21-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 58,543 86 45,010 100 -46,746 2 1,736 36 EUR 671,718 70 -15,605 30 -18,182 71 33,787 30 GBP 228,266 57 -63,247 28 77,902 76 -14,655 25 JPY 218,076 67 -58,454 33 74,349 72 -15,895 21 CHF 37,669 16 -7,157 38 14,958 67 -7,801 31 CAD 140,047 23 4,105 44 -6,578 63 2,473 35 AUD 137,017 35 -40,606 47 44,608 52 -4,002 43 NZD 42,889 30 -5,423 62 8,756 44 -3,333 13 MXN 191,265 45 -26,870 16 22,977 82 3,893 60 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 68,858 65 44,345 94 -45,996 6 1,651 84 Bitcoin 13,537 77 1,046 100 -995 0 -51 12   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 534 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,476 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 88.2 2.9 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 82.7 4.8 – Net Position: 45,010 -46,746 1,736 – Gross Longs: 51,606 1,676 4,522 – Gross Shorts: 6,596 48,422 2,786 – Long to Short Ratio: 7.8 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 1.6 35.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.1 -15.2 -7.2   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,018 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 55.6 12.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.4 58.3 7.7 – Net Position: -15,605 -18,182 33,787 – Gross Longs: 195,554 373,695 85,208 – Gross Shorts: 211,159 391,877 51,421 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.7 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.2 70.9 30.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.9 7.0 12.1   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -63,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,596 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 77.6 7.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.2 43.5 14.2 – Net Position: -63,247 77,902 -14,655 – Gross Longs: 28,470 177,170 17,735 – Gross Shorts: 91,717 99,268 32,390 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.4 75.8 25.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.8 -10.3 2.1   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -58,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,755 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.4 71.6 10.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.3 37.6 17.9 – Net Position: -58,454 74,349 -15,895 – Gross Longs: 35,864 156,248 23,099 – Gross Shorts: 94,318 81,899 38,994 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.9 71.9 21.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 32.0 -24.7 -2.9   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,808 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.1 66.2 25.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.1 26.5 46.4 – Net Position: -7,157 14,958 -7,801 – Gross Longs: 3,068 24,927 9,673 – Gross Shorts: 10,225 9,969 17,474 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.4 67.3 31.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.8 -23.7 21.2   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,202 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 47.9 20.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.2 52.6 18.9 – Net Position: 4,105 -6,578 2,473 – Gross Longs: 42,260 67,084 29,011 – Gross Shorts: 38,155 73,662 26,538 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.0 63.2 35.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.7 -7.9 0.0   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,254 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.2 60.2 13.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.8 27.7 16.6 – Net Position: -40,606 44,608 -4,002 – Gross Longs: 31,745 82,514 18,756 – Gross Shorts: 72,351 37,906 22,758 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.2 52.2 42.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.0 -1.9 3.4   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,838 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.2 60.8 5.0 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.8 40.3 12.8 – Net Position: -5,423 8,756 -3,333 – Gross Longs: 14,652 26,056 2,145 – Gross Shorts: 20,075 17,300 5,478 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.2 43.9 13.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.7 -12.5 6.3   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,381 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.3 45.8 3.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 64.3 33.8 1.3 – Net Position: -26,870 22,977 3,893 – Gross Longs: 96,147 87,609 6,317 – Gross Shorts: 123,017 64,632 2,424 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.9 82.4 59.5 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.6 18.3 -1.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,213 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.7 14.6 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.3 81.3 2.3 – Net Position: 44,345 -45,996 1,651 – Gross Longs: 55,599 10,020 3,238 – Gross Shorts: 11,254 56,016 1,587 – Long to Short Ratio: 4.9 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.0 6.4 84.1 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.5 -3.9 4.7     Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,061 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.5 0.6 7.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.8 7.9 8.1 – Net Position: 1,046 -995 -51 – Gross Longs: 10,495 78 1,048 – Gross Shorts: 9,449 1,073 1,099 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.7 0.0 11.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.3 -11.9 -3.1   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
The Swing Overview – Week 25 2022

The Swing Overview – Week 25 2022

Purple Trading Purple Trading 27.06.2022 13:52
The Swing Overview – Week 25 There was a rather quiet week in which the major world stock indices shook off previous losses and have been slowly rising since Monday. However, this is probably only a temporary correction of the current bearish trend.  The CNB Bank Board met for the last time in its old composition and raised the interest rate to 7%, the highest level since 1999. However, the koruna barely reacted to this increase. The reason is that the main risks are still in place and fear of a recession keeps the markets in a risk-off sentiment that benefits the US dollar. Macroeconomic data We had a bit of a quiet week when it comes to macroeconomic data in the US. Industrial production data was reported, which grew by 0.2% month-on-month in May, which is less than the growth seen in April, when production grew by 1.4%. While the growth is slower than expected, it is still growth, which is a positive thing.   In terms of labor market data, the number of jobless claims held steady last week, reaching 229k. Thus, compared to the previous week, the number of claims fell by 2 thousand.   The US Dollar took a break in this quiet week and came down from its peak which is at 106, 86. Overall, however, the dollar is still in an uptrend. The US 10-year bond yields also fell last week and are currently hovering around 3%. The fall in bond yields was then a positive boost for equity indices. Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields and USD index on the daily chart   The SP 500 Index The SP 500 index has been gaining since Monday, June 20, 2022. However, this is probably not a signal of a major bullish reversal. Fundamental reasons still rather speak for a weakening and so it could be a short-term correction of the current bearish trend. The rise is probably caused by long-term investors who were buying the dip. Next week the US will report the GDP data which could be the catalyst for further movement.  Figure 2: The SP 500 on H4 and D1 chart   The index has currently reached the resistance level according to the H4 chart, which is in the region of 3,820 - 3,836. The next strong resistance is then in the area of 3,870 - 3,900 where the previous support was broken and turned into the resistance. The current nearest support is 3 640 - 3 670.    German DAX index The manufacturing PMI for June came in at 52.0. The previous month's PMI was 54.8. While a value above 50 indicates an expected expansion, it must be said that the PMI has essentially been declining since February 2022. This, together with other data coming out of Germany, suggests a certain pessimism, which is also reflected in the DAX index. Figure 3: German DAX index on H4 and daily chart The DAX broke support according to the H4 chart at 12,950 - 12,980 but then broke back above that level, so we don't have a valid breakout. Overall, however, the DAX is in a downtrend and the technical analysis does not show a stronger sign of a reversal of this trend yet. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is 13,130 - 13,190. The next resistance is then at 13 420 - 13 440. Strong support according to the daily chart is 12,443 - 12,600.   Eurozone inflation at a new record Consumer inflation in the Eurozone for May rose by 8.1% year-on-year as expected by analysts. On a month-on-month basis, inflation added 0.8% compared to April. The rise in inflation could support the ECB's decision to raise rates possibly by more than the 0.25% expected so far, which is expected to happen at the July meeting.  Figure 4: EUR/USD on H4 and daily chart From a technical perspective, the euro has bounced off support on the pair with the US dollar according to the daily chart, which is in the 1.0340 - 1.0370 range and continues to strengthen. Overall, however, the pair is still in a downtrend. The US Fed has been much more aggressive in fighting inflation than the ECB and this continues to put pressure on the bearish trend in the euro. The nearest resistance according to the H4 chart is at 1.058 - 1.0600. Strong resistance according to the daily chart is at 1.0780 - 1.0800.   The Czech National Bank raised the interest rate again Rising inflation, which has already reached 16% in the Czech Republic, forced the CNB's board to raise interest rates again. The key interest rate is now at 7%. The last time the interest rate was this high was in 1999. This is the last decision of the old Bank Board. In August, the new board, which is not clearly hawkish, will decide on monetary policy. Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how they approach the rising inflation.   The current risks, according to the CNB, are higher price growth at home and abroad, the risk of a halt in energy supplies from Russia and generally rising inflation expectations. The lingering risk is, of course, the war in Ukraine. The CNB has also decided to continue intervening in the market to keep the Czech koruna exchange rate within acceptable limits and prevent it from depreciating, which would increase import inflation pressures. Figure 5: The USD/CZK and The EUR/CZK on the daily chart Looking at the charts, the koruna hardly reacted at all to the CNB's decision to raise rates sharply. Against the dollar, the koruna is weakening somewhat, while against the euro the koruna is holding its value around 24.60 - 24.80. The appreciation of the koruna after the interest rate hike was probably prevented by uncertainty about how the new board will treat inflation, and also by the fact that there is a risk-off sentiment in global markets and investors prefer so-called safe havens in such cases, which include the US dollar.