CPI Report Cranked Up The Hawkish ECB Rate Expectations

Expect the ECB to keep increasing rates at the short-term, at least until the summer

Inflation in Europe took the wrong direction in February. The data released yesterday printed a record inflation of 7.2% in France and ticked higher to 6.1% in Spain. Both were higher than expected, of course, and cranked up the hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations.

US market

In the US, cooling US house prices for a seventh straight month, and ugly Richmond manufacturing index cooled the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed pressures yesterday, but the S&P500 couldn’t hold on to its gains above the 50-DMA, and closed yesterday’s session below this level. As a result, the month of February ended with a 2.7% loss for the S&P500, and with mounting pressure from the bears.

Crude Oil

Elsewhere, crude oil jumped yesterday, although the latest API data showed another 6.2 million barrel build last week in the US crude inventories. The strong PMI data from China certainly helped keeping the oil bulls alert. It also helped Aussie rebound following soft CPI data.

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Stocks

In individual stocks, Target and Zoom gained after results, while Rivian lost 10% in after hours trading on mixed results and soft outlook.

Watch the full episode to find out more!

  • 0:00 Intro
  • 0:36 Hot European inflation boosts ECB hawks
  • 5:24 Strong China PMI counter soft AUD inflation, but...
  • 6:30 S&P500 closes the month 2.7% down
  • 7:59 Crude oil gains but solid inventory data could limit rally
  • 8:44 Target, Zoom gain, Rivian tanks post earnings

Ipek Ozkardeskaya

Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.

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Expect the ECB to keep increasing rates at the short-term, at least until the summer

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