what does inflation mean?

Exchange Rates 03.10.2022 analysis

Key reports published in both US and Europe show that inflation continues to spiral and is at staggering levels. This prompted Credit Suisse to issue a gloomy outlook for the global economy, saying the worst is yet to come.

Exchange Rates 03.10.2022 analysis

The Department of Commerce released the latest inflation data, indicating that core PCE jumped 0.6% in August. This suggests that inflation is still intense and increasing, and may even be higher in the next months. Core labor costs, which excludes food and energy costs, also rose 4.9%, up 4.7% from forecasts.

Exchange Rates 03.10.2022 analysis

In Europe, inflation hit a new record high of 10% in September.

Exchange Rates 03.10.2022 analysis

CPI for the Eurozone differs from that of the US as year-on-year energy prices in the region were up 40.8%. In the US, there is a slight decline from 8.5% to 8.3%.

To address inflation, the Fed has implemented five consecutive interest rate hikes, but from last week's report, it is obvious that the aggressive measure is yet to bring inflation down. Vice Chairman Lael Brainard said the

The Witchy Trio: Commodities Supercycle, Inflation, and… Recession?

The Witchy Trio: Commodities Supercycle, Inflation, and… Recession?

Sebastian Bischeri Sebastian Bischeri 18.04.2022 15:59
  If the current market phenomena were to star in a Shakespeare drama, they would be ideal candidates for the Three Witches. Can you guess who would play who? Have you ever heard of Shakespeare’s mythological characters, the Three Witches? They are depicted as prophets who represent evil, darkness, chaos, and conflict. If you look at the market today, you will find ideal candidates for these dark roles. However, while rising commodity prices and inflation have a casting win in their pocket, there is no certain actor to play the third witch. Would the recession stand a chance?   Related article: Deutsche Bank Shook DAX! French Election, Inflation And ECB Are Factors Which Shaped DAX (GER 40), CAC40, FTSE 100 And IBEX35 - Top Gainers, Top Losers     No Easter eggs today – instead, here is a story that may provide food for thought. (Credit: Macbeth meets the three witches; scene from Shakespeare's 'Macbeth'. Wood engraving, 19th century. Wellcome Collection. Public Domain Mark) Let’s start by representing an economic cycle with its different phases: Global commodity prices – in particular energy prices – surged at a fast pace following the COVID crisis. Notably, as major central banks responded to the economic slowdown by printing money, rising levels of inflation were observed as a result of accommodating monetary policy combined with accelerating oil and gas demand. The context was tight supply and high volatility triggered by (geo-)political unrest around the world (crises, wars, etc.). In fact, those inflationary periods of surged prices (foremost, fuel prices are often those pulling the trigger) are usually followed by a sudden drop in consumer confidence and, therefore, a sudden fall in demand, which may lead to a recession phase.   Article on Crypto: Hot Topic - NEAR Protocol! Terra (LUNA) has been seeing a consistent downward price trend, DAI Should Stay Close To $1   To predict those phases, some analysts tend to spot the inverted bond yield curves. In one of its articles, Investopedia explains The Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve as the following: “The term yield curve refers to the relationship between the short- and long-term interest rates of fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. Under normal circumstances, the yield curve is not inverted since debt with longer maturities typically carry higher interest rates than nearer-term ones. From an economic perspective, an inverted yield curve is a noteworthy and uncommon event because it suggests that the near-term is riskier than the long term.” Now let’s have a look at the mystic US government yield curves over the past 30+ years: US 10 YR in Orange versus US 2 YR in Blue US 30 YR in Red versus US 5 YR in Indigo (Source: TradingView) The inversion of yield curves – typically with a two-year rate higher than the ten-year rate or even a five-year rate higher than the thirty-year rate – has occurred prior to each of the last US recessions. This phenomenon also briefly happened last week and lasted for almost two trading days. (Credits: Small Exchange, Inc. Newsletter Apr 11, 2022) As you can see, the above charts demonstrate that US treasury yield curve inversions may sometimes be followed by a sudden drop in equity prices. Alternatively, David Linton was also showing how big falls in bonds were preceding big falls in stocks in a recent tweet: (Source: Twitter) Okay, now let’s ask ourselves a few questions. Do you think that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be able to tighten its monetary policy as planned? Will stocks collapse? Will this trigger a recession? If so, when? In what phase of the economic cycle do you think we are? 3, 4 or in between, maybe? The first speculative scenario Growth will continue for now, and so will demand... However, as soon as the Fed begins to tighten as planned, the S&P will plummet. So, the Fed will either be forced to stop to prevent a crashing stock market and falling risk sentiment from hitting growth, or just go ahead with tightening to keep inflation at bay and face the consequences. In the latter case, Powell loses his job... The second speculative scenario Following ongoing inflation, there could be a recession with a collapse in demand in about 6 months or so. On the energy side, despite the drop in demand, prices shouldn't drop too much as they might still be supported by limited supplies. Any ideas about a projected time horizon? Regarding the Fed, I don't believe much in rate hikes. If they do so, they will plunge off their looming debt cliff. Maybe the Fed could keep communicating about future hikes if the markets are crashing. However, if they do any actual hikes, I bet they would probably be tiny ones, just to show some signals, but in the end, the actual rates wouldn't be much changed. J. Powell seems to be pretty much stuck. (Source: Giphy) Anyway, it is a moment of truth for central banks. Let me know what you think in the comment section. That’s all, folks, for today. I hope you’ve had a great Easter weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Walt Disney Results Are Beyond  All Expectations. Large Chinese Company Fires More Than 9K Employees!!! Market Newsfeed - 11.08.2022

British Pound (GBP) Power! Will GBPUSD Go Down Anymore!? (Australian Dollar To US Dollar) AUD/USD Is Volatile, GER 40 (DAX) To Pause Longer?

Jing Ren Jing Ren 19.04.2022 08:42
Summary: GBPUSD tests critical floor AUDUSD breaks support GER 40 seeks support GBPUSD tests critical floor The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary bounce towards 1.3060. The US dollar continues upward as markets wager a 50 bp Fed hike next month. The pound’s latest rally came to a halt in the supply zone around 1.3150 which coincides with the 30-day moving average.   Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun   As the pair gives up its recent gains, the bears still retain control of the direction and seem to be ready to double down at rebounds. A drop below 1.3000 would attract momentum selling and push the pair to November 2020’s lows near 1.2860. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary bounce towards 1.3060. AUDUSD breaks support As the RSI recovers into the neutral area, the pair may face stiff selling pressure around the support-turned-resistance at 0.7400. The Australian dollar remains under pressure after dovish RBA minutes. A fall below the demand zone between 0.7380 and 0.7400, which sits on the 30-day moving average, has put the bulls further on the defensive.   For you: Forex Rates: British Pound (GBP) Strengthening? Weak (EUR) Euro? GBP, NZD And AUD Supported By Monetary Policy?   As the short-term prospect turns bearish, depressed offers compound the lack of bids, driving the Aussie even lower. 0.7300 would be the next target. As the RSI recovers into the neutral area, the pair may face stiff selling pressure around the support-turned-resistance at 0.7400. GER 40 seeks support The bulls need to push above 14320 in order to turn the cautious mood around. The Dax 40 retreats as risk appetite remains subdued across equity markets. The index is still under pressure after it struggled to hold above the psychological level of 14000. The current pennant may turn out to be another distribution phase. Additionally, a break below 13900 would make the index vulnerable to a new round of sell-off. 13600 would be the next support. The bulls need to push above 14320 in order to turn the cautious mood around. Then 14600 will be the final hurdle before an extended recovery could materialize.
EUR/USD: US Dollar (USD) Supported By A 75bp Rate Hike!? EUR Influenced By Last Week's Activities, Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) May Not Stop Below $1980

EUR/USD: US Dollar (USD) Supported By A 75bp Rate Hike!? EUR Influenced By Last Week's Activities, Price Of Gold (XAUUSD) May Not Stop Below $1980

Jing Ren Jing Ren 20.04.2022 08:12
EURUSD consolidates post-sell-off The US dollar rallies as a 75bp rate hike by the Fed could be on the table. The single currency remains under pressure after last week’s sell-off. 1.0920 has become an important supply area after buyers’ failed attempts to push higher. Further above, the psychological level of 1.1000 is another support-turned-resistance, suggesting that the path of least resistance is down. Bearish trend followers could be waiting to fade the next rebound. The pair is treading water above 1.0760 as the RSI rises back to the neutrality area. Article on Crypto: Altcoins Showing Promising Growth - Take a Look at Solana (SOL), POLKADOT (DOT) and SHIBA INU (SHIB-USD)| FXMAG.COM XAUUSD keeps high ground Gold slipped as the greenback rallied across the board amid the Fed’s increasingly hawkish stance. The previous rally cleared the resistance at 1990 but struggled to grind to the psychological level of 2000. A drop below 1961 revealed underlying weakness and caused a liquidation of leveraged buyers. 1940 at the base of a previous breakout is the next stop to gauge the bulls’ commitment. An oversold RSI may trigger a buy-the-dips behavior and lead to a limited rebound. 1980 is now the closest resistance. Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun SPX 500 breaks channel The S&P 500 recoups losses as the quarterly earnings season heats up. The index has been sliding down in a bearish channel, which indicates a cautious mood in the short term. The latest rally above the upper band (4420) and resistance at 4460 could prompt sellers to cover their positions, paving the way for a potential reversal towards 4590. 4360 is a fresh support. In fact, a series of higher lows would show buying interest and convince followers to jump in with both feet. Otherwise, 4300 would be the next support.
The AUD/USD Currency Pair Trading At Its Lowest Level Since Two Years, Hang Seng Index Was Flat

$2000 Level Of Gold Price (XAUUSD) Noted But Not Yet Present! Awaiting Fed Vs. Gold Battle!

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 20.04.2022 10:27
Gold is falling fast, having lost about 3% to $1940 from Monday's peak. On Monday, the bulls are locally capitulating after an unsuccessful attempt to push the price above $2000. It would be a mistake to attribute gold's fall to an expensive dollar. Since the start of the year, the dollar index and gold have had a more than 80% correlation versus -0.34% in 2021, reflecting that investors see gold and the dollar as defensive assets amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Yesterday the dollar index slowed its rise towards the end of the day. It reversed to a decline on Wednesday morning, while gold has been actively declining since the beginning of the week, reinforcing their close correlation. Read next: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM With EURUSD near 1.08, GBPUSD near 1.30 and USDJPY one step away from 130, the dollar is near historical extremes Gold's recent retreat could be a sign of hope for a détente in the European conflict and a desire to lock in profits from the powerful movement of recent days. As it is difficult to find signs of de-escalation in the news, we are leaning towards the second option. With EURUSD near 1.08, GBPUSD near 1.30 and USDJPY one step away from 130, the dollar is near historical extremes. The same can be seen in the Dollar Index, which since last week has been trading above 100, a psychologically crucial round level. Read next: Altcoins' Rally: Solana (SOL) Soars Even More, DOT and SHIBA INU Do The Same! | FXMAG.COM Since the beginning of February, gold has found support on the declines toward its 50-day moving average in the last rally. If a test of this level in the coming days also confirms the resilience of this support, we could see a new high soon. On the long-term gold chart, the pullback from the highs in 2020 and the subsequent smooth recovery is a handle in a "cup-and-handle" pattern, whereby a cup has formed over eight years since 2012. This pattern will gain strength should gold consolidate above $2000 with a final target near $3000.
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Euro To US Dollar (EUR To USD): That's An Amazing USD Performance, Will USDCAD (Canadian Dollar) Stay Close? USDJPY (Japanese Yen) Beats Records!

Jason Sen Jason Sen 20.04.2022 10:39
EURUSD retests 37 YEAR TREND LINE SUPPORT AT 1.0760/20. Longs need stops below 1.0670. Obviously there is nothing more important than this level this week. Longs at 1.0760/20 initially target 1.0820/50. Above here is more positive targeting 1.0900/20 then 1.0960/70. USDCAD strong resistance at 1.2650/70. Shorts need stops above 1.2690. A break higher is a medium term buy signal. Related article: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM Very minor support at 1.2610/1.2590 & again at 1.2525/05 today. If we continue lower look for 1.2480/70. We have another buying opportunity at 1.2440/10. Longs need stops below 1.2370. A break lower is an important medium term sell signal. USDJPY beat 14 year trend line resistance at 127.10/50 & rocketed another 200 pips!! The pair has 13 blue bodied daily & 7 weekly candles in a row. So sell signal yet despite severely overbought conditions. Above 129.50 look for 129.90/95 then 130.25/35, perhaps as far as 130.75/85. First support at 128.45/25. Further losses can target 127.80/70. Unlikely but if we continue lower look for strong support at 127.10/126.90. Read next: Gold Price Falls, Volatility in Wheat Futures and The Price Of Palladium| FXMAG.COM EURJPY higher as expected reaching 139.67 & no sell signal yet as we become overbought. Further gains can target 139.95/99 then 140.40/50 & 140.85/95. GBP To USD GBPUSD retests last week's low at 1.2990/70 after the bullish engulfing candle so now we just have to see if we get a double bottom buy signal or if the pair break lower for a sell signal. So far the bulls are winning as we bounce from 1.2977. A break below 1.2955 should be a medium term sell signal. Our longs target 1.3060/70 & 1.3100/10, perhaps as far as first resistance at 1.3150/70. Please email me if you need this report updated or Whatsapp: +66971910019 – To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk
Tempting FX Pair - GBP To USD! Analysis And Tips For British Pound To US Dollar

Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.04.2022 10:17
Summary: EUR/USD and Monetary Policy. Bank Of England's Speech on Thursday effect on the GBP related currency pairs. AUD/CHF as a reflection of investor risk sentiment. Related article: Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events Monetary Policy driving the EUR/USD price action. Since the market opened this morning, the EUR has strengthened against the USD and the market sentiment is bullish, the rise in price is small but significant given the current economic conditions. With the differing monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) the EUR/USD currency pair price is low. In the coming weeks it is likely to see the dollar strengthening thanks to the expectations of the Fed to tighten monetary policy. Whereas, there is no certainty on when the ECB will begin rising interest rates. EUR/USD Price Chart Value of the GBP Awaits BOEs Speech Since the market opened this morning the price of the currency pair has increased, however, market sentiment for the EUR/GBP has changed from bullish yesterday to a mixed today. The strengthening EUR against GBP comes in light of the Bank of Englands (BOE) announcements tomorrow regarding the future monetary policy of the country, investors are expecting more hawkish actions. EUR/GBP Price Chart  Read next: Altcoins' Rally: Solana (SOL) Soars Even More, DOT and SHIBA INU Do The Same! | FXMAG.COM AUD/CHF Since the market opened this morning, the value of the AUD/CHF has increased, and has a bullish market sentiment. This currency pair can be used as a good reflection of risk sentiment, this is because the AUD is risk-on and the Swiss Franc is considered as a safe-haven currency. AUD/CHF Price Chart GBP loses some ground on the JPY The price of the GBP/JPY currency pair has (in general) been on the rise as a result of the rapidly depreciating value of the Yen. However, since the market opened this morning the price has decreased despite the bullish market sentiment, possibly due to the uncertainty regarding the future of the GBP and the upcoming BOE’s announcements. GBP/JPY Price Chart Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, teletrade.eu, dailyfx.com
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Unexpectedly Gold Price (XAUUSD) Falls, Canada And Chicago - Weather Makes Wheat Futures Fluctuate. The Price Of Palladium - Industrial Activity Is Taking Strain

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.04.2022 11:23
Summary: The price of gold fell to the lowest price in almost 2 weeks. Volatility in U.S Wheat futures due to the Weather. Palladium Prices driven down by the rising dollar index. Gold Prices Hit Lows - elevated U.S treasury yield affecting the demand of the commodity The price of gold hit its lowest value in almost 2 weeks as a result of the elevated U.S treasury yield affecting the demand of the commodity. The increase in the yields also increases the opportunity cost for investors who hold gold because the commodity is not yielding. Investor expectations of the Fed's hawkish outlook could be the reason for the price fall, especially inlight of the expected Fed Speech this week. Price Chart of Gold Read next: Altcoins' Rally: Solana (SOL) Soars Even More, DOT and SHIBA INU Do The Same! | FXMAG.COM Chicago SRW Wheat Futures - terrible weather conditions in the US and Canada are causing supply fears The price of Wheat has been volatile over the past week, the terrible weather conditions in the US and Canada are causing supply fears, however market sentiment for this commodity has struggled to shake its bearish tone. Chicago SRW Wheat Futures Price Chart Read next: (UKOIL) Brent Crude Oil Spikes to Highest Price For April, (NGAS) Natural Gas Hitting Pre-2008 Prices, Cotton Planting Has Begun Palladium Price - the war continues, the industrial activity is taking strain The price of Palladium saw an increase in price as an initial market reaction to the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, and as the war continues, the industrial activity is taking strain. However, on Tuesday, the price of palladium fell as a result of the rising dollar index. Palladium Futures Price Chart Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, economies.com
Investors In Crisis!? Inflation, Rates Hikes And Geopolitics. Where Are Investors Putting Their Money - Now Vs. Then?

Investors In Crisis!? Inflation, Rates Hikes And Geopolitics. Where Are Investors Putting Their Money - Now Vs. Then?

Chris Vermeulen Chris Vermeulen 20.04.2022 16:55
Investors have been processing high inflation reports, rising interest rates, surging energy, commodity, and real estate prices. So, what is the market saying about which markets investors have favored the last couple of years vs where are they putting their money right now? A way to determine this is to simply plot the indices and then see how they stack up against each other. Price data should also be viewed and analyzed in a multi-timeframe environment: short-term, medium-term, and long-term. Additionally, we want to know how the market we’re trading is performing compared to its peers. As a trader or investor, we know it’s important to determine if a market is in a bull, bear, accumulation, or distribution phase. Additionally, we want to know how the market we’re trading is performing compared to its peers. Related article: Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events The following charts provide snapshots of how the SPY ETF (US S&P 500) is doing compared to the other US and global stock indices. The year-to-date chart is showing us a maximum volatility spread of 15.73%. This is simply the difference between the highest stock index, Australia 200 +1.18% vs the lowest stock index US Nasdaq 100 -14.55%. Australia’s market has recently done well due to its strong energy and commodity interests which in turn has contributed to the strengthening Australian dollar. SPY YEAR-TO-DATE DAILY: MAX VOLATILITY 15.73%      www.TheTechnicalTraders.com – TradingView The Hong Kong and China stock markets have been plagued with numerous Covid issues in 2020, 2021, and now recently again in 2022. The volatility spread at first doesn’t seem that significant but over time it can be substantial. This is one of the reasons why our team continually tracks global money flow according to each country's stock index but additionally other types of markets and asset classes. Our quantitative trading research is crucial in determining which markets to trade and how to efficiently employ trading capital. Read next: Altcoins' Rally: Solana (SOL) Soars Even More, DOT and SHIBA INU Do The Same! | FXMAG.COM This maximum volatility spread during 2021-2022 is 44.42%. The highest stock index, India 50 +23.75% vs the lowest stock index Hong Kong 33 -20.67%. The Hong Kong and China stock markets have been plagued with numerous Covid issues in 2020, 2021, and now recently again in 2022. SPY 2021-2022 DAILY: MAX VOLATILITY 44.42%      www.TheTechnicalTraders.com – TradingView Now we can take a longer-term view of the past 2+ years covering Covid before and after. We notice that the Nasdaq 100 is the overall leader despite its recent negative performance in 2022. This maximum volatility for 2020-2022 is 89.70%. The highest stock index, US Nasdaq 100 +69.70% vs the lowest stock index Hong Kong 33 -20.00%. SPY 2020-2022 DAILY: MAX VOLATILITY 89.70%      www.TheTechnicalTraders.com – TradingView KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDED It is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and in the last six trades we entered in March, all have now been closed at a profit! Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list. Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! Successful trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success. WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens. Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy? We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Ether (ETH), (BTC) Bitcoin, LUNA, NFT - They All Plunges! Crypto Market Crash Aka "Cryptogeddon" | Conotoxia

Netflix Crashing!? Netflix Stock Price (NFLX) Falls More Than 35%? Subscribers Fled!

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 20.04.2022 21:27
Since the market opened this morning Netflix stock price has fallen by more than 35%, the price fall came shortly after the company announced it had lost more than 200 000 subscribers in the first quarter of 2022 and are forecasting losing a further 2 000 000 subscribers in the coming quarter. The drop in value comes hand-in-hand with investor sentiment and the post-covid world. In addition, subscribers are seeming to be rethinking their subscription commitments to the streaming service. Related article: Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events The current market sentiment, Elon Musk and other factors causing Netflix stock price to dive. The price of Netflix’s stock has also been affected by more competitors entering the market, the loss of 700 000 Russian subscribers as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, consumer budget tightening as a result of the current market conditions and Elon Musk’s opinion on Netflix’s shares being affected by the ‘woke mind virus’. Related article: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM Given the forecast for the next quarter, the stock price of streaming service is unlikely to see any large increases anytime soon. Netflix Price Chart Sources: Finance.yahoo.com, Theguardian.com, nypost.com
The Forex Market Is Under Strong Pressure From Geopolitical Events And Statistics

How To Hedge Against Inflation? Crypto? Is Bitcoin (BTC) The Answer?

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 20.04.2022 21:46
Last year alone, the number of investors in the cryptocurrency market may have increased by nearly 70 percent. - This is according to the "2022 Global State of Crypto Report" published by Gemini Exchange. The report was created after surveying 29,293 adults in 20 countries. The age of the respondents ranged from 18-75, and the survey was limited to those earning more than $14,000 per year. The report helps understand the global adoption of cryptocurrencies among retail investors. It shows that 41 percent of those surveyed made their first investment in cryptocurrencies in the past year, and overall, the total number of investors has increased by about 70 percent in 2021 alone. Key excerpts from the report: More than half of cryptocurrency owners in Brazil (51 percent), Hong Kong (51 percent) and India (54 percent) started in 2021. Among high-income respondents in developed countries, cryptocurrency ownership is trending upward, with 40 percent or more in the United Kingdom, Germany and France reporting cryptocurrency ownership. Regulation is causing concern around the world. Among those who do not own cryptocurrencies, 39 percent in Asia Pacific, 37 percent in Latin America and 36 percent in Europe say there is regulatory uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrencies. Inflation drives adoption Another important finding is that inflation appears to be a key driver of investor adoption. One reason to pay attention to the Gemini survey is that it asked questions about inflation. The report highlights that countries that have recently experienced hyperinflation tend to agree with the statement "cryptocurrencies are the future of money." Respondents from countries that experienced a 50 percent or higher devaluation of their currency against the U.S. dollar over the past 10 years were more than 5 times more likely to say they plan to purchase cryptocurrencies in the coming year than respondents from countries that experienced currency devaluations of less than 50 percent, including South Africa, Mexico, India and Brazil. In the latter country, where the local currency has been devalued by more than 200 percent against the U.S. dollar, 41 percent of respondents own cryptocurrencies. In the U.S., 40 percent of cryptocurrency holders see them as a hedge against inflation. If inflation continues to be an issue around the world, it seems likely that this trend could increase In general, the higher a country's inflation rate, the higher the adoption rate of cryptocurrencies can be. If inflation continues to be an issue around the world, it seems likely that this trend could increase. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Still Going Up The Price Of Crude Oil (WTI/BRENT) When Energy Stocks Will Start To Soar?

Still Going Up The Price Of Crude Oil (WTI/BRENT) When Energy Stocks Will Start To Soar?

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 21.04.2022 11:10
Oil gained 1.5% on Thursday morning to $103.75 per barrel for WTI and $108.2 for Brent, continuing to cling to the uptrend since December. Over the past six weeks, oil price movements are no longer unidirectional, but the market remains in 'crisis mode'. In April, oil is supported on the declines towards the 50-day moving average, as we saw yesterday. The uptrend is not only supported by the abrupt withdrawal of oil from Russia and the accompanying decline in production there. There are also shipment problems in Libya and prolonged pipeline repairs in Kazakhstan. Oil producers in the US seem to be stepping up. Last week saw production increase to 11.9M barrels per day - a new high since May 2020 - from 11.8M. Fluctuations could prove to be a manifestation of the supply shifting to Europe Related article: Japanese Yen (JPY) Weakens Against The Dollar, USD/CAD Stable And The Inevitable Strengthening Of The USD, IMF/World Bank Events Meanwhile, US oil stocks and production data remain volatile. Commercial inventories collapsed by 8M barrels after jumping by 9.4M last week. Such fluctuations could prove to be a manifestation of the supply shifting to Europe. Strategic stocks showed a net decline of 4.7M after 3.9m the previous week. The volume of oil in strategic storage fell to the lows in the last 20 years. However, it is not yet enough to turn around commercial inventories. Related article: Monetary Policy Drives EUR/USD, The Future of the EUR/GBP Awaits the Bank Of England's Speech - Good Morning Forex| FXMAG.COM Another potential area of pressure on the oil price - a strengthening dollar Oil supply constraints continue to put together a relatively bullish picture for oil, preventing a price reversal to the downside. A real bearish victory requires either a sharp increase in production in the US or OPEC countries or a dramatic fall in demand. We see no clear signals for either direction. Another potential area of pressure on the oil price - a strengthening dollar - is also failing for the second day in a row, temporarily working on the bulls' side.
Follow EUR/USD, EUR To GBP And The Rest Of EUR Pairs - Inflation In Euro Area Continues To Worry Investors After Reaching New High

Follow EUR/USD, EUR To GBP And The Rest Of EUR Pairs - Inflation In Euro Area Continues To Worry Investors After Reaching New High

Walid Koudmani Walid Koudmani 21.04.2022 12:02
Today's Euro area inflation report continued to show the alarming rate of increase in prices mainly driven from energy prices and services. The euro area annual inflation rate was 7.4% in March 2022, up from 5.9% in February and noticeably higher than when compared to a year earlier (1.3%). Stagflation scenario? While we have already seen a slight change in tone from some members of the ECB, hinting at rate hikes sooner than previously expected, today's report could further incentivize the bank to act in an attempt to avoid the increasingly likely stagflation scenario. It will be important to keep an eye on today’s speech from the ECB head Lagarde after another member of the ECB , Kazaks, stated they believe asset purchases may be terminated before Q3 2022 - much earlier than it was expected. Gold price returns to key support area ahead of central banker speeches The price of gold has seen a noticeable pullback after reaching a high of $1958 yesterday while stock markets started the day trading higher following better than expected earnings from Tesla. The precious metal has once again returned to a previous support area of and could continue to see an increase in volatility as investors await today's comments from the heads of BoE and ECB. While the ECB appears to be changing its opinion slightly on the possibility of adjusting its fiscal and monetary policy to contend with record inflation, it remains to be seen how and if Lagarde will downplay the situation in order to calm the markets. In any case, gold might see a reaction to the $1945 area once again after the price managed to rebound several times in the past.  
U.S Yields Expecting Further Increases!?, Announcement Of PMIs Prelims For The Private Sector - FOREX Today

U.S Yields Expecting Further Increases!?, Announcement Of PMIs Prelims For The Private Sector - FOREX Today

Rebecca Duthie Rebecca Duthie 22.04.2022 19:00
Summary: Market sentiment for the EUR/USD currency pair showing bearish signals. Bullish outlook for the EUR/GBP as the EUR strengthens against the GBP. UK retail sales saw a large decrease, causing investor confidence for the currency to fall. USD gains ground on the EUR in light of further expected increases in yields in May The Dollar has strengthened against the EUR since the market opened this morning, in general the dollar is strengthening against all currencies at the moment. After the prelims on private sector PMIs this morning, the EUR originally gained some ground against the USD but has since fallen again, possibly as a result of the new expected increases in U.S yields in May, causing more investor confidence in the USD. EUR/USD Price Chart EUR gains on the GBP as expectations arise for ECB to increase yields. Since the market opened this morning, market sentiment for this currency pair is bullish. The Euro has gained ground on the GBP inlight of the Private sectors PMIs announcements this morning as well as the expectations that the European Central Bank could increase yields in July. EUR/GBP Price Chart GBP Weakens against the USD Since the market opened this morning, market sentiment for this currency pair is bearish. The GBP has weakened against the USD inlight of the announcement of the Feds intentions to increase the U.S yields by a further 50bps, at the same time, UK retail sales saw a large decrease. This fall counteracted the strengthening seen after the increased expectations of the BoE’s interest rates. GBP/USD Price Chart   Related article: https://www.fxmag.com/forex/ecb-announcements-to-possibly-tighten-monetary-policy-strengthens-the-euro-eur-usd-eur-gbp-aud-nzd-and-eur-chf-all-increased The Japanese Yen strengthened against the AUD today. Market sentiment for this currency pair is showing as mixed. In general the JPY has been weakening in the past days. This weakening had pushed the value of this currency pair higher, however, since the market opened this morning, the AUD has weakened against the JPY. AUD/JPY Price Chart Sources: finance.yahoo.com, dailyfx.com
The Current Picture Of Economies In The Old Continent

Can (XAUUSD) Gold Price Plunge To $1800!? Silver Price (XAGUSD) To Decrease As Well?

Jason Sen Jason Sen 25.04.2022 09:59
Gold first support at 1927/24 but longs need stops below 1920. A break lower targets 1915/12. Below 1910 look for 1900, perhaps as far as 1890. Strong resistance at 1940/45. Shorts need stops above 1950. Read next (By Jason Sen): British Pound To Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) Bounces To Ease Severely Oversold Conditions As Predicted, EUR/USD again holds important 5 year trend line support at 1.0850/20 | FXMAG.COM Silver best support for this week at 2390/80. Longs need stops below 2365. A break lower is a medium term sell signal. Minor resistance at 24.50/60. Strong resistance at 2485/95. Shorts need stops above 2505. WTI Crude JUNE first support at 102.00/101.50. Longs need stops below 101.00 (a low for the day here again on Friday). A break lower however targets 9900/9850 & 9750/9700. We could fall as far as very strong support at 94.50/9400. Longs need stops below 9350. Read next: Euro To US Dollar (EUR To USD): That's An Amazing USD Performance, Will USDCAD (Canadian Dollar) Stay Close? USDJPY (Japanese Yen) Beats Records! | FXMAG.COM Holding support at 102.00/101.50 allows a recovery to minor resistance at 104.50/105.00. Above 105.50 however look for 106, perhaps as far as 107.30/70. Shorts need stops above 108.50. Please email me if you need this report updated or Whatsapp: +66971910019 – To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk
(NVDA) Nvidia Stock Price Plunged! Meme Stocks' Performance Seems To Be Surprisingly Good

US Yields Have Declined! Gold Price (XAUUSD) Is Back In The Game! Gold Trades Near $1900, COVID In China Leave Investors Unsure

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 26.04.2022 10:25
The price of gold appears to be back above $1,900 per ounce on Tuesday, after a 3-day decline. The rise seems to have taken place with a slight weakening of the US dollar and a drop in US Treasury bond yields, which may have made bullion more attractive. Investors may be monitoring the deteriorating Covid virus situation in China after authorities in Beijing expanded testing to a larger part of the city The U.S. dollar appears to have retreated today from a two-year high reached during the previous session, while the 10-year bond yield may have fallen from a three-year high, retreating to around 2.8 percent. Given the growing uncertainty about the outlook for global economic growth, the market may be gauging the Federal Reserve's willingness to tighten monetary policy quickly. Additionally, investors may be monitoring the deteriorating Covid virus situation in China after authorities in Beijing expanded testing to a larger part of the city, raising fears of a shutdown of the capital. In addition, Russia told the world not to underestimate the significant risk of nuclear war, which it says it wants to reduce, and warned that conventional Western weapons are a target in Ukraine. Gold can be seen as a store of value during economic and political crises. Read next: Conotoxia - Who's Gonna Stop Dollar (USD)!? EUR/USD Plunging Below 1.00? What A Surprise! Crude Oil Price Goes Down!| FXMAG.COM European buyers have refused to buy millions of barrels of Urals crude from Rosneft PJSC Meanwhile, in the oil market, WTI crude futures appear to have risen to around $99.5 a barrel on Tuesday, after a two-day decline that took prices below $100. However, the supply situation appears to remain tight. There is still a risk that the EU could join the U.S. and U.K. in banning Russian oil imports as the war in Ukraine continues. European buyers have refused to buy millions of barrels of Urals crude from Rosneft PJSC, while Asian refiners have given up on Russian oil because of sanctions imposed on the company that carries the cargoes. As a result, the world on the one hand may be reducing oil demand by the prospect of weaker economic growth and lower demand from China due to the epidemic. On the other hand, there are still chances of reduced oil supply in Europe due to war and sanctions, which may put upward pressure on production. Thus, the price of WTI crude oil, due to the opposing factors, may remain in a consolidation of $92-114. Read next: Conotoxia - (USD) Dollar Index - Fed Floors It! Hawkish Rhetoric And Interest Rate Hike? British Pound In Crisis? GBP/USD Affected By Weak Retail Sales Data!| FXMAG.COM   Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Norges Bank And Another Hike Rate To Propel The Krone?

ING Economics: "Rates and FX are waking up to a less hawkish Bank of England reality"

ING Economics ING Economics 28.04.2022 15:36
Markets are expecting too much tightening from the Bank of England and are slowly waking up to a less hawkish reality. This means gilts will struggle to follow Treasury and Bund yields higher, and the curve should price out hikes. Sterling has started to react to the weaker consumer data and, barring a very hawkish surprise, risks look skewed to the downside In this article The gilt canary in the coal mine Click to scroll down FX: Waiting for the penny to drop We're expecting the Bank of England to hike in May and June, but the tone is turning more cautious. The BoE's voting pattern and lower growth forecast should be hints that hike expectations at the front-end of the curve are excessive. As the central bank hits the pause button in the summer, we expect markets to wake up to the less hawkish reality. The gilt canary in the coal mine After months of being at the forefront of the core rates market sell-off, with a clear underperformance in the second half of 2021 relative to US Treasuries and German Bund when the BoE ramped up its hawkish message, gilts are now warning that the sell-off is running out of steam. A string of weak sentiment data had the market re-rate recession probabilities and gave weight to the comparatively cautious tone adopted by the BoE.Breaking 2% to the upside remains a possibility for 10Y gilts but we expect them to continue to lag Bund and USTs if bond selling resumes. We foresee yields ending 2022 at 1.8% and the rally should accelerate next year. We also caution that impaired liquidity conditions in the gilt market make outright selling by the BoE less likely in the near term. Source: Refinitiv, ING The UK is far from being the only economy with a worrying growth trajectory, and we should eventually see German Bund and US Treasuries catch up to the gilt rally. Our best guess is that will happen in the third quarter this year once the Federal Reserve has a few hikes under its belt and once inflation has stabilised. It is however noteworthy that, after being ahead of the pack when it came to tightening, it now looks as if the BoE has the luxury to adopt a more prudent approach when inflicting more policy tightening on its domestic economy. Source: Refinitiv, ING We have been warning for months that the policy rate path implied by GBP swaps looked too aggressive, but that a turnaround was only likely once the BoE tightening cycle is well underway. "The gilt curve should re-steepen helped by deflating rate hike expectations" Hike expectations have now started to come off, but we think this is only the beginning of the adjustment lower. This has started a race between front and back end rates. We think curve dynamics will depend on when global yields peak. If we’re right in seeing a few more months of global bond sell-off, then the gilt curve should re-steepen during the same period, also helped by deflating rate hike expectations. Our four scenarios for the May BoE meeting and expected market reactions   FX: Waiting for the penny to drop Sterling has had a bad week at the office. The Bank of England's broad trade-weighted measure of the pound has sold off 2% over the last week due to a combination of weak UK consumer data and a much tougher risk environment on the pincer movement of higher US real rates and weaker Chinese growth prospects. Incidentally, GBP/USD has had one of the highest G10 FX correlations with global equities over the last few months. "Sterling has had a bad week at the office" In looking at the various EUR/GBP reactions to the four BoE scenarios outlined above, we have used our Financial Fair Value (FFV) model as a guide. This identifies key drivers of EUR/GBP pricing such as yield differentials, the shape of the UK yield curve, and the equity environment as inputs. The problem is those yield differentials have lost some of their explanatory power recently. In fact, one has to go back to earlier in 2021 when say a 5bp move in the GBP/EUR yield two-year differential was worth about a 1% move in EUR/GBP. A repricing lower of hike expectations means GBP could take a leg lower Source: Refinitiv, ING Assuming that the beta on the yield differential driver is lower, we present more conservative EUR/GBP levels in our scenario analysis above. Our baseline scenario sees some modest GBP weakness, for example, EUR/GBP to 0.8450 on the BoE event risk. But James Smith has been making his case that the BoE Bank Rate will end the year at 1.25% as opposed to the 2.15% currently priced by the market. If and when that penny drops, GBP could take another large leg lower and GBP/USD may end up far closer to the 1.20 level than we had originally forecast. TagsSterling | Interest Rates | Fx | Bank Of England DisclaimerThis publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more (link to: https://think.ing.com/about/content-disclaimer/)
Stocks Market: What Can We Expect From Shopify Stock Price?

Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Plunges, Is Crude Oil Endangered!? Awaiting Disney, AMC And Rivian Earnings | Soft US inflation could reverse risk appetite this week! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 09.05.2022 11:05
Last week closed on a negative note, as US NFP data came in stronger-than-expected, revived Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks, and sent the major US indices lower. And the new week starts on a negative note, as well, after the Chinese Li Keqiang warned that the jobs situation in China is getting ‘complicated and grave’ as the government’s zero Covid policy is taking a heavy toll on the country’s economy, and impacts the rest of the world negatively, as well. But US inflation print due Wednesday could help improving investor sentiment this week, if the data confirms a slow down in US inflation from multi-decade high levels. The next natural target for Bitcoin bears is the $30K psychological support Oil is up this Monday on G7 commitment to ban Russian oil, but Saudis cut the price of their oil due to the Chinee slow down. The US 10-year yield gains field above 3% mark, and US dollar consolidates near two-decade highs. Bitcoin dived to the lowest levels since January over the weekend. The next natural target for Bitcoin bears is the $30K psychological support. The only thing that could reverse the dollar appreciation against majors, and Bitcoin is a soft inflation read on Wednesday! Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:33 Week starts moody 1:12 Oil up 3:00 Strong jobs revive Fed hawks, but soft CPI could calm them down! 5:06 Macro events of the week 6:46 Bitcoin hits lowest since January 8:03 Earnings calendar: Lordstown, AMC, Disney, Occidental Petroleum & Rivian 8:51 End of Rivian’s lockup period, beginning of new challenge Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.
The Move Of The Bank Of England Forced British Yields To Plummet

Commodities Prices And Problems With Supplies Are Still In Charge Considering US Inflation | US corporate pricing power set to delay inflation’s decline | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 11.05.2022 09:23
US small business optimism held steady in April after three consecutive falls. Nonetheless, businesses retain the ability to pass higher costs onto their customers and this will keep inflation sticky. Ongoing supply chain issues and rising fuel costs mean 2% inflation is a distant prospect Business sentiment holds steady, but firms still want to hire The recent US data has been mixed and that has helped to fuel fears that the economy could experience a marked slowdown, especially with the Federal Reserve firmly focused on inflation and hiking interest rates. Dollar strength is acting as a further headwind to growth by making US exports less price competitive in what is already a challenging external demand environment for companies. In this regard this morning’s National Federation of Independent Business survey for April was marginally better than expected at the headline level with optimism holding steady versus expectations of a fourth consecutive monthly drop. Nonetheless it is still the weakest level since April 2020 in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic striking. The details show a slight improvement in the proportion of small businesses expecting higher sales, but there was a little more pessimism on the outlook for the economy and whether it was a good time to expand. Set against this softer environment, firms are still struggling with worker shortages and are desperate to hire. The NFIB released the labour components last Thursday, which a net 46% having raised worker compensation during the past 3 months and 27% expecting to do so further. Inflation pressures show no sign of moderating Looking to tomorrow's inflation data the NFIB report shows a net 70% of companies raised their selling prices in the past 3 month - down from last month's 72% balance, but this is still the second highest reading in the survey's 47-year history. Moreover, a net 46% of firms plan to raise their prices further over the next three months (down from 50%, but this is still the 6th highest reading in the survey's history). This reinforces the message the despite concerns about where the economy is heading, businesses continue to have pricing power and highlights the breadth of inflation pressures in the economy. The ability to raise prices is seen across all sectors and all sizes of businesses NFIB price indicators show no sign of a turn in inflation Source: Macrobond, ING Inflation may be peaking, but 2% is a long way away Tomorrow's CPI report will probably show that inflation has passed the peak, due largely to lower used car prices, but in the absence of major improvements in supply chains and geopolitical tensions, the descent to the 2% target will be very slow and may not be achieved until the very end of 2023. However, with national gasoline prices hitting a new all-time high yesterday that will come as little comfort to most households. TagsUS Inflation Federal Reserve Business optimism   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Hungarian Forint (HUF) May Be Rising! ING Economics Expects Bank Of Hungary To Hike The Rate By 100bp!

Worsening (HUF) Hungarian Forint? Inflation - Can Hungarian Situation Get Any Worse? | Double-digit inflation arrives in Hungary | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 11.05.2022 09:18
The pro-inflationary impact of the war in Ukraine is finally filtering through into the data. Monetary policy might shift to a higher gear Food inflation came in at 15.6% year-on-year, showing a significant acceleration 10.3% Core inflation (YoY) ING forecast 9.7% / Previous 9.1% The impact of the war is finally appearing in inflation data April's inflation data is finally showing the impact of the Ukraine war. While the March release was a relatively pleasant surprise, with only a moderate acceleration in price pressure, inflation in April was the total opposite. There has been a sharp rise in prices: on a monthly basis, it reached a 1.6% rate. The last time we had such a strong dynamic was in 2012 after a VAT increase. The bad news is that the current tide in prices is not the result of a single measure. Roughly 50% of the consumer basket items showed double-digit year-on-year inflation in April. Against this backdrop, the 9.5% year-on-year headline inflation print is hardly surprising. Main drivers of the change in headline CPI (%) Source: HCSO, ING The details Food inflation came in at 15.6% year-on-year, showing a significant acceleration. Both unprocessed and processed items are contributing to the elevated price pressure. Despite prices of some basic food being capped, there is strong repricing everywhere: the monthly food inflation is three to four times higher than usual. This is a result of several supply-side shocks (transportation, agricultural commodities, energy, wages, etc.) and probably the weak forint. The second-most important contributor behind the sharp acceleration is the other goods and motor fuel category, which covers household goods, toiletries and pharma products and goods for recreation and education. Durables are also showing a remarkable 11.1% yearly price increase, a major contributor to inflation pressure. Rising industrial producer prices are showing up in consumer prices as demand-supply mismatch prevails. Services inflation accelerated by only 0.3ppt reaching 6.3% year-on-year in April, but monthly inflation has remained much stronger than usual, pointing toward a significant repricing pattern. Only clothing, alcoholic beverages and tobacco hold back the year-on-year inflation print. The latter is only a base effect due to an excise duty hike in tobacco products carried out in April 2021. The composition of headline inflation (ppt) Source: HCSO, ING Underlying inflation reaches double-digit territory The last point also means that, as alcoholic beverages and tobacco are not part of the core inflation basket, this base effect didn’t have a beneficial effect on core inflation. While headline inflation accelerated by 1ppt, the core reading rose by 1.2ppt. With that, double-digit underlying inflation has arrived in Hungary: the Statistical Office registered a 10.3% year-on-year core indicator. The central bank’s underlying inflation indicators, which are good predictors of medium-term developments in price changes, have also moved into the double-digit category. Headline and underlying inflation measures (% YoY) Source: HCSO, NBH, ING Further acceleration ahead Inflation in Hungary is expected to rise further in the coming months, as the economy continues to show a significant demand-supply mismatch. Labour shortage, rising wages and other supply-side shocks are increasingly spilling over into consumer prices, with companies enduring significant pricing power. Recent surveys are showing that roughly 60-80% of companies (depending on their respective sectors) are planning further price rises. In light of today’s upside surprise, headline inflation will soon reach double-digits as well. The extent and timing of the peak in price pressure highly depend on the fate of price caps, but as of now, we see the peak well above 11% in the third quarter. On average, we forecast a 10% headline reading in 2022. The central bank might raise the pace As far as monetary policy is concerned, as underlying inflation is also strengthening to an extraordinary extent (1.8% month-on-month), the National Bank of Hungary will hardly have an opportunity to think about stopping the interest rate hike cycle anytime soon. In our view, the recent data will urge the central bank to rethink its tightening path both from the perspective of its length and its peak. We see a possibility that the central bank will speed up its effective rate hiking from the recent 30bp tempo to 50bp or even 75bp in May. Against this backdrop, our 8.25% terminal rate call seems outdated and we now see the peak in base and 1-week deposit rates at above 9%. TagsNational Bank of Hungary Monetary policy Inflation Hungary CPI   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
"Fight Against Inflation Is Our Primary Concern..." Central Banks Predicate

Some May Even Not Imagine How US Inflation (CPI Data) Can Affect Asian - Chinese Market And Forex Pairs With US Dollar Like USD/JPY And USD/CNH

ING Economics ING Economics 11.05.2022 13:54
All quiet in Asia ahead of US inflation In this article Macro outlook What to look out for: China and US inflation Source: shutterstock Macro outlook Global: The big story today is going to be the April US CPI release, and markets may be quite muted ahead of this. Our Chief US Economist has written about this in the context of the latest NFIB business survey, so please check out this link for more details. But to summarise, whatever happens tonight, he isn’t looking for US inflation to fall quickly. That may bring back concern about potentially more aggressive FOMC behaviour. In this vein, Loretta Mester yesterday suggested that if inflation wasn’t falling by the second half of the year, the FOMC may need to increase the pace of its tightening. US stocks managed to eke out some small gains yesterday after the big falls earlier this week. But trading was choppy, and it could have gone either way. We don’t read too much directional steer into this for Asia’s open today. G-10 FX continued to show USD support, but movements were not large. EURUSD drifted down to about 1.0530 from about 1.0560 yesterday. The AUD still looks pressured lower and is about 0.6937 as of writing. Other Asian FX was fairly muted, though note there is a BNM meeting today, so a “no-change” which is on the cards, could see the MYR softening further. Bond markets were also fairly muted. 2-year US Treasury yields edged up slightly, but the 10Y US Treasury bond yield drifted back under 3.0%. 10Y JGBs have been drifting higher – challenging the 0.25% level, and breaching it intraday, so we may be due an official response of sorts imminently.    China: April CPI and PPI inflation rates are expected to slow from March due to lower metal and coal prices and weak demand for consumer goods. We will probably see higher prices for pork and fertilizer. This set of data reflects slower economic growth resulting from the Covid-19 social distancing measures. Korea: The Jobless rate remained unchanged in April at 2.7% (vs the market consensus of 2.8%) for the third straight month, while the labour participation rate improved to 63.8% (vs 63.5% in March), indicating that the labour market continued on a recovery track. Reopening is supporting employment growth in service sectors such as retail sales, recreation, and transportation. Despite a gloomier outlook for manufacturing, employment in that sector posted a solid gain for the eighth straight month. However, one potential caveat to this month’s report was that the majority of the employment growth came from the older age group (60+) while the 30’s (supposedly the most productive group) lost the most jobs. President Yoon Seok Yeol’s party has proposed a supplementary budget plan to the government this morning. Although the size was in line with the market expectation of about KRW33tr, it is noted that the extra budget would not require additional bond issuance. More details will be released tomorrow. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM What to look out for: China and US inflation Korea unemployment (11 May) China CPI and PPI inflation (11 May) US CPI inflation (11 May) Philippines 1Q GDP (12 May) US PPI inflation and initial jobless claims (12 May) Malaysia GDP (13 May) Hong Kong GDP (13 May) US Michigan sentiment (13 May) TagsEmerging Markets Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
S&P 500 And Nasdaq Declined | The US Data Triggered Some Members Of Fed

Rising Inflation In The US Means Rising US Dollar (USD), Chinese COVID Policy Seems To Be Almost Impossible | US inflation, a make-or-break moment for investors! | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 11.05.2022 11:12
It’s D-day of the week: we will see whether inflation in the US started easing in April after hitting a four-decade high in March, and if yes, by how much. A soft inflation read will come as a relief that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to tame inflation start paying off, but any disappointment could send another shock wave to the market. In the FX, the US dollar extended gains, despite the easing yields yesterday, as the risk-off flows continued supporting the greenback For now, activity on Fed funds futures give almost 90% chance for a 50-bp hike in FOMC’s June meeting; there is a lot left to be priced for a 75bp hike, if the data doesn’t please. To avoid pricing in a 75bp hike at next FOMC meeting, we must see an encouraging cooldown in inflation. In the FX, the US dollar extended gains, despite the easing yields yesterday, as the risk-off flows continued supporting the greenback.   The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $100 level on news that the Europeans softened their sanctions proposal against the Russian oil The levels against the majors like euro, yen and sterling remained flat, but the positive pressure in the dollar, combined with Turkey’s unconventional monetary policy start giving signs of exhaustion. The dollar-try advanced past the 15 mark, and the government asked institutions to make their FX operations within the most liquid trading hours. Two weeks ago, the bank had revised its regulations on banks' reserve requirements, applying them to the asset side of balance sheets in order to strengthen its macroprudential policy toolkit. The latter required reserves now pressure the overnight rates to the upside – suggesting that the unconventional policy is near limits. Energy are up and down… but mostly up. The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $100 level on news that the Europeans softened their sanctions proposal against the Russian oil, but oil is already above the $100 this morning. The upside potential is fading due to slower global growth prospects, and the Chinese lockdown. Read next: Stablecoins In Times Of Crypto Crash. What is Terra (UST)? A Deep Look Into Terra Altcoin. Terra - Leading Decentralised And Open-Source Public Blockchain Protocol | FXMAG.COM Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:24 All eyes on US inflation data! 2:30 Market update 3:50 Strong US dollar threatens lira stability 5:50 Risks in energy markets remain tilted to the upside 6.35 Why Chinese zero Covid policy won’t work 8.07 Coinbase hit hard by crypto meltdown 8:39 Energy, still the best option for investors Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020.  
The Euro To The US dollar Pair May Move Upward

Here Is Why US Inflation Data (CPI) Is That Important Not Only For US Dollar (USD) Its Index (DXY), But Also For Stocks, Bonds And Other Assets | Conotoxia

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 11.05.2022 15:28
Today at 14:30 important macroeconomic data for the US economy will be published, which may also affect asset valuations outside the United States - we are talking about inflation data. In March 2022, inflation in the United States rose to 8.5 percent, which was the highest reading in 40 years. The rise in prices, in turn, may have affected several market measures. First, it forced the Fed to act, as the Federal Reserve is supposed to care about price stability and should raise interest rates if prices rise. This in turn could have influenced expectations of higher USD interest rates in the future and a strengthening of the dollar to levels last seen 20 years ago. Further expectations of rising rates could lead to an increase in bond yields, where for 10-year bonds they are in the region of 3%. The increase in bond yields, expectations of further tightening of monetary policy, and shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet, in turn, are information that could adversely affect the stock market, which in the case of the Nasdaq 100 index found itself in bear market territory. This spiral seen in many markets may continue until investors fully discount inflation, rising yields, and expectations of interest rate hikes. Interestingly, the latter had already begun to fall earlier in the week as recession fears increased. Currently, based on the federal funds rate contracts, the market is assuming a peak for hikes in mid-2023 at 3.00-3.25 percent. That's lower than the 3.5-.375 percent assumed as recently as the beginning of the month. The determinant, in turn, of whether there is a chance of full pricing for U.S. rate hikes may be where inflation will be. If this one peaks this six months and starts to fall, the market may stop assuming very aggressive Fed action. This, in turn, could bring relief to the bond market, the stock market, and also lead to the US dollar being close to its cyclical peak. Hence, today's and subsequent data on price growth in the U.S. economy could be so important. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Forex: GBP/USD. The Support Has Been Rejected 3 Times. Uptrend!

Inflation (US CPI) Rises, So Does US Dollar (USD)! (SPX) S&P 500 And Nasdaq Have Decreased! Is Hawkish Fed Going To Hunt Again? | FxPro |

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.05.2022 15:36
The dollar got a fresh boost, with stocks coming under renewed pressure after a new batch of US inflation data. The annual inflation rate slowed from 8.5% to 8.3% The US consumer price index rose 0.3% in April after 1.2% a month earlier. The annual inflation rate slowed from 8.5% to 8.3% but was higher than the expected 8.1% y/y. Particularly worrying for markets is the development of core inflation. The corresponding index added 0.6% m/m and 6.2% y/y last month, higher than the expected 0.4% and 6.0%, continuing the sprawl of inflation. Higher-than-expected inflation is now positive for the dollar and weighs on equities as it suggests a more robust Fed response While the annual rate of core and core inflation seems to have peaked, higher-than-expected inflation is now positive for the dollar and weighs on equities as it suggests a more robust Fed response. With inflation far from the 2% target, the Fed will be inclined to act faster (raise rates more than 50 points at a time) or stop hiking at a higher level. A significant risk demand indicator, bitcoin, has already moved out of the range with a lower boundary in January 2021 Locally, we see a tug-of-war around the dollar against the euro and yen near the lows of the past two weeks and swings against the pound and the franc near this week’s extremes. However, a significant risk demand indicator, bitcoin, has already moved out of the range with a lower boundary in January 2021. The S&P500 and Nasdaq futures were also pushed back to this week’s lows, indicating continued bearish pressure.
The Forex Market Is Under Strong Pressure From Geopolitical Events And Statistics

Gold $1200 Scenario? After Higher US CPI Release, Fed Is Expected To Tackle Inflation, So Gold Price (XAUUSD) May Plunge Again | FxPro

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 11.05.2022 15:38
Gold dipped to $1832 on Wednesday morning, pulling back to a critical support line in the form of the 200-day moving average, losing more than 11% from the peak levels reached in early March. Gold has been losing buyers amid a jump in US government bond yields Gold has been under systematic pressure for the past month and a half amid a rally in the dollar. In addition to this increase in the underlying price, gold has been losing buyers amid a jump in US government bond yields. However, it is too early to talk about a break in the uptrend in gold, but only a retreat into deep defences ahead of essential data. Most of the time, the correlation between inflation expectations and long-term bond yields governs the dynamics in gold. Weak real bond yields lead to a pull in the precious metal as investors look to protect the purchasing value of capital.  A significant event for the gold outlook is today’s US inflation release With high interest rates and inflation control, investors prefer to earn yields in bonds by selling off gold. A significant event for the gold outlook is today’s US inflation release. The market reaction to this event could be decisive for gold in the coming days or weeks. If gold manages to develop a pullback from current levels, we could see a sharp increase in buying over the next few days Consolidation below $1830 on the day would be an essential bearish signal that could rapidly decline towards $1800. Moreover, there would be an immediate question of double-top formation through 2020 and 2022 peaks as an early signal of a long-term downward trend with a potential of $1200. If gold manages to develop a pullback from current levels, we could see a sharp increase in buying over the next few days, as we did in early February and late November. But unlike those episodes, this time, the bears might not wait for a quick reversal, and a further rally would be an important signal that gold continues to claw its way out of the prolonged correction. In this case, the nearest stops might be the levels near $1900, and further, the market might quickly target a renewal of the historic highs above $2075 before the end of the year. 
Forex: Could Incoming ECB Decision Support Euro?

Although US Bonds Yields May Be Higher, Current Circumstances Are Not Clear As US CPI Release And Correlated Fed Interest Rate Decision In June Are To Shape Markets | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 11.05.2022 17:15
The inflation concerns are easing ahead of today’s US CPI reading. We doubt central bankers will back down so soon, however. Markets are coming around to our view that a peak is near in yields, but we think it might still be a couple of months away In this article US 10yr edges back below 3% on remarkable easing in inflation expectations The inflation scare is easing but beware of circular reasonings Global growth gloom means holding psychologically important levels will be more difficult Today’s events and market views The peak in yields may be near US 10yr edges back below 3% on remarkable easing in inflation expectations The juxtaposition between rising real rates and falling inflation expectations remains, and over the past 24 hours the fall in inflation expectations has been dominant. And that’s why the US 10yr yield has dipped back below 3%. Right now, US 10yr inflation expectations are in the region of 2.65%. They were in excess of 3%, albeit briefly, a few weeks back, at which point talk of a 75bp hike in June were sounding like a solid call. Now that inflation expectations are well down, the 50bp promised looks fine. "10yr real rate in the area of 1% would not look out of whack" Meanwhile the 10yr real yield is now above 30bp. Add that to the inflation expectation and we get the sub-3% 10yr Treasury yield. The move higher in the real yield has been spectacular. Back in March it was deeper than -100bp. The move to 30bp is a sign that the economy has morphed away from the need for ultra-loose policy. And a continued move higher takes it towards a more normal footing. In fact a 10yr real rate in the area of 1% would not look out of whack. If we got there, inflation expectations would fall far more. The adjustment higher in real yields is a threat to risk asset valuations Source: Refinitiv, ING   Today’s US CPI number will be important, but not determinative. In other words it should not have a material impact on the 10yr inflation expectation. That said, if it’s an outsized / surprise number, it’s then more likely to have an impact out the curve. Our central view is in line with the market view, where we do see a fall in contemporaneous inflation, consistent with the recent tendency for inflation expectations to ease lower. We’ve been surprised by this though, and think it’s too early to call it a trend. The inflation scare is easing but beware of circular reasonings The ‘peak inflation’ narrative should receive a boost from slowing US annual headline and core inflation readings today but we would be cautious about chasing the move lower in rates. As always, forward-looking markets could apply a heavy discount to central bank rhetoric but an acceleration in monthly core CPI means Fed officials are unlikely to change tack just yet. One should also remember that the decline from the inflation peak will be very slow indeed, keeping pressure on the Fed to act. Swaps show inflation is no longer the market's only concern Source: Refinitiv, ING   US CPI and Eurozone HICP swaps have dropped significantly this month Further afield, inflation compensation offered by US CPI and Eurozone HICP swaps has dropped significantly this month. Should markets conclude that central banks can now afford to be less hawkish? Only up to a point. To some extent, the drop in inflation swaps is owing to a deteriorating global macro environment, but the post-FOMC timing of this drop also suggests that it has at least as much to do with expectations that central banks will deliver on expected tightening. We would be careful with such circular reasonings. Global growth gloom means holding psychologically important levels will be more difficult For an example of the doubt setting in investors’ mind about central banks’ ability to tighten policy, look no further than yesterday’s better-than-expected German (Zew) and US (National Federation of Independent Business) sentiment indicators. None of the readings was enough to alleviate global growth gloom but the NFIB details in particular could have brought inflation fears back to the fore. We suspect it is too early to call the end of the hawkish re-pricing, with central bankers still very much on their front-foot when it comes to delivering monetary tightening. Bonds risk failing a psychologically important test Source: Refinitiv, ING   We have sympathy with the growing view that there is a short time limit to this tightening cycle We think a better candidate for a peak in yields in this cycle is during the third quarter of this year, after the ECB’s expected first hike and after the couple of additional 50bp hikes the Fed has committed to. This being said, turning points are notoriously difficult to pick and we have sympathy with the growing view that there is a short time limit to this tightening cycle. Should 10Y bonds fail to hold on to their recent jump above the psychologically important levels of 3% for Treasuries and 1% for Bunds, it may take a lot of good news to test these levels again. Today’s events and market views Germany (10Y) and Portugal (8Y) make up today’s Euro sovereign supply slate. This will come on top of a dual tranche NGeu syndicated deal in the 3Y (new issue) and 30Y (tap) sectors. In the US session, the Treasury will auction 10Y notes. The main release of note in the afternoon will be the April CPI report. Consensus is for the annual readings to cool down from the previous month but a monthly acceleration in core could muddy the picture for rates. There is also an extensive list of ECB speakers on the schedule, culminating with interventions from Christine Lagarde and Isabel Schnabel. TagsRates Daily   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Cautious optimism

ECB's Lagarde Teases Rate Hike, Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Defends From Deep Plunge

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 11.05.2022 17:06
Stock markets are pushing cautiously higher again on Wednesday as investors await a huge inflation report from the US ahead of the open on Wall Street. The report is expected to be the first that will indicate inflation has peaked and a sharp decline is underway. That doesn’t mean inflation is expected to return to target any time soon but it will come as a massive relief to investors, households and businesses alike after months of watching price pressures accelerate higher. The fear is that the data today doesn’t tell us what we want to hear. A slower deceleration or worse, none at all, would be an enormous blow and I expect equity markets would feel the full effects of it. The extent to which that would be the case would obviously depend on how bad the data is. On the flip side, considering the shock to equity markets recently, a low reading that marks the end of the ascent and falls in line with the view that price pressures will ease considerably in the months ahead could be very positive for stock markets. Investors will be hoping the inflation data can provide a tailwind for equity markets for the rest of the year and perhaps even allow for interest rate expectations to be pared back. There may be some scarring from the last six months which may stop investors from getting too excited initially but indices are at a steep discount now after recent moves and a low inflation reading could tempt some back in. Lagarde drops subtle rate hike hint After months of pushback, it seems the ECB is forming a consensus around raising interest rates in the coming months. Noises from policymakers in recent weeks have alluded to that and Christine Lagarde today ever so slightly deviated from her policy of ambiguity to hint at the possibility of a July hike. That would align with where markets stand on the lift-off and make the ECB the latest central bank to abandon its transitory argument and belatedly start tightening. Whether Europe will pay the price for their hesitation, as may be the case in the UK, US, New Zealand and many other countries, isn’t clear. It may well depend on how swiftly it agrees to raise rates and how entrenched inflation becomes. There’s no doubt they don’t quite have the problem the UK and US have, for example. Bitcoin stays above crucial support as Terra plunges Bitcoin survived a brief dip below USD 30,000 on Tuesday and is making small gains so far today, easing pressure on the critical support in the process. It could have been much worse for bitcoin if it got caught up in the Terra debacle, which is down more than 50% on the day despite being a stablecoin by definition. That it hasn’t sent shockwaves throughout the broader crypto space will come as a relief to bitcoin HODLers for now. But that could change and a break below USD 30,000 could make them very uncomfortable. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
The US Has Again Benefited From Military Conflicts In Other Parts Of The World, The Capital From Europe And Other Regions Goes To The US

Fast rising U.S. CPI data adds to equity market woes | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 12.05.2022 16:22
Summary:  The larger than expected April U.S. CPI and core CPI reversed the attempt of the equity market to rebound and brought major U.S. equity indices firmly back onto their down trends. The surprising strength in services is particularly worrying and the money market is pricing in 143 bp hikes (i.e. almost three 50 bp hikes) in the next three FOMC meetings. What’s happening in markets? What spooked markets overnight was US inflation rose more than expected, which gives the Fed more ammunition to rise rates (more than they mapped out). Rising rates will cause further carnage, as when rates rise, bond yields tend to rise, which may trigger the US 10-year bond yield, to rise back over 3%,  (which is a better yield than the Nasdaq and S&P500 combined – just think about that for a second). As such the Nasdaq (with an average dividend yield of 0.9%) continued to fall and lost 3.2%. The Tech heavy index is down 28% from its high, and the technical indicators suggest it will likely continue to fall on a weekly and monthly basis, which supports our bearish fundamental view. The S&P500 lost 1.7% on Wednesday, (it has an average dividend yield of 1.66%). The U.S. treasury yield curve flattened 13 bps since yesterday’s CPI release.  The 10-year yield fell 10 bps to 2.89% while the 2-year yield rose 3 bps to 2.64%. It is worthwhile to note that the 10-year yield has fallen 30 bps in just three days from its May 9 high of 3.20%.  The treasury market is sending signals of investors being worried about a sharper slow-down in the U.S. economy.  In Australia, the Aussie share market fell 1% and hit a support level 6,991 points, but energy companies hit new highs. If the ASX200 falls further bellow this level, it could fall 2.2% to the next support (at 6,837 points). The technical indicators, suggest this could occur, with the MACD and RSI suggesting a weekly and monthly could pull back. We ideally need to see better than expected news to break the cycle. All in all though, it’s worthwhile continuing to back those stocks that are outperforming and are likely to outperform this trajectory, with rising cashflow and earnings growth. Just take a look at today’s best performing stocks as an example. In Energy there is Ampol (ALD) up 3.5% with its shares hitting a 2-year high, and Viva Energy (VEA) up 3% to its highest level since 2019. China and Hong Kong equity markets rebounded from their lows. After a weak opening, stocks traded in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen rebounded from their lows.  Hang Seng Index (HSI.I) was down  1% and CSI300 (000300.I) recouped all its early loss to close the morning session flat.  Infrastructure related A share, in particular county seat modernization names rallied.  Sunac China, China’s 4th largest property developer, failed to make a coupon payment of a dollar bond.  The news pushed down the shares of other Chinese developers traded in Hong Kong. Asia stocks follow Wall Street down. Japan’s Nikkei (NI225.I) was down 1% in the Asian morning following US CPI release overnight and the slide in US indices overnight. Steel makers like Japan Steel (5631) and Kobe Steel (5406) surged in a big way after earnings results and profit outlook was better than expected. Singapore’s STI Index (ES3) was also in the red. Singtel (Z74) was up over 1% leading on the index as it broadened its 5G network to underground metro line. Chinese electric car maker Nio (NIO) is going to start trading on the Singapore stock exchange form May 20. FX range trading continues. The USD had a hard time reacting to the US inflation print, suggesting range trading patterns may continue for now. While USDJPY slipped below 130 on lower real yields, EUR was still unable to overcome inflation and growth worries even with Lagarde hinting at a rate hike for July on stickier inflation, it dipped slightly to remain above 1.05 support. AUDUSD’s move above 0.7000 was not sustained and NZDUSD returned to sub-0.6300. GBPUSD is making a steadier move below 1.2300 ahead of UK GDP release. What to consider? US inflation may have peaked but the descent will be slow and painful. April U.S. CPI came at 8.3% YoY.  Core CPI, which excludes food & energy,  was 6.2% higher from a year ago.  Reiterating what we said in this piece, while headline inflation may be showing signs of peaking as base effects turn, it is likely to stay at these elevated levels. It was important to note that the 0.6% monthly increase of Core CPI  has brought inflation back to the uncomfortably high 0.5%-0.6% range from October 2021 to February 2022, after a temporary moderation in March.  Another worrying sign was the +0.7% core service price, which was the highest since 1990. Regular rents and owner-equivalent rents rose faster than expected and prices of reopening related spending, such as airfares and hotel lodging rose sharply. The US consumer remains very strong, which gives pricing power to companies. Services inflation will also broaden further, suggesting we are in for a higher-for-longer mode. Take into the mix, a prolonged war, sustained disruptions from China and still-tight labor market. This means Fed’s hawkish rhetoric is set to stay. The money market has moved towards pricing in a 50bp hike in the Sept FOMC on top of the two 50bp moves anticipated for June and July. Oil bulls pin their ears back: Both the Saudi oil Chief and UAE have warned that all energy sectors are running out of capacity, which supports our view that the oil price will hit higher levels over the longer term and also once China is out of lockdown. That being said, Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO) has strengthened regardless, along with many other oil companies, as their cashflows are rising at record paces. ARAMCO has now overtaken Apple as the world’s most valuable company. As we have been saying for some time now, it’s wise to consider revisiting oil stocks and oil ETFs. For instance, the ETF OOO that tracks the oil price, looks like it could break above a key trigger level and re-enter another uptrend, so that’s worth consideration. Also have a look at your favorite large oil stocks with rising earnings growth. Malaysia’s rate hike will be a signal for the region. Bank Negara Malaysia started the rate hike cycle yesterday as we had expected, turning away from its patient stance in April. This comes on the back of a similar rate increase decision from the Reserve Bank of India last week in an out-of-cycle meeting. Ringgit interest rate swaps are now pricing in over 75-basis points of rate hikes over the next 6 months. This similar surge in hawkish pricing is being seen across emerging Asia, suggesting more pain for EM bonds. Potential trading ides that could be worth your consideration? US dollar and US dollar ETFs move higher. As mentioned last week the USD dollar is supported higher along with US dollar ETFS. The Invesco USD Index Bullish Fund ETF closed at a brand new record high overnight. BetaShares USD ETF is also hitting higher levels and looks like. As previously mentioned, also as our head of FX Strategy also said, we are bullish on the USD, as higher volatility and bond yield are expected. This supports the USD and USD ETFs. BTC s in a bearish long term downtrend pressured by long term yield rising. For investors it could be worth considering shorting Bitcoin given rates are likely to continue to rise for now. Buy USDHKD 12-month forward. HKD interest rates are set to rise towards or even go above those of the USD as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) withdraw HKD liquidity in its move to buy HKD against USD.  As the USDHKD spot rate touches 7.85, which is the weak-side convertibility undertaking of the HKMA, the HKMA intervened by buying HKD versus the dollar this morning.  Given the strength of the US dollar and the weak economic sentiment in Hong Kong and the mainland, it is likely that the HKMA will have to continue to intervene and withdraw HKD liquidity further.  Given the ample ammunition that the HKMA has in defending HKD’s Linked-exchange Rate Regime, investors who are interested in betting on persistent weakness in the HKD would be better off to take a long position of USDHKD 12-month forward (currently at around 7.83) which can go up as HKD interest rate rise even when the spot being capped at 7.85.  Key economic releases this week: Thursday: India April CPI, US April PPI Friday: US Univ of Michigan sentiment, US import price index   Key earnings release this week: Thursday: Verbund, KBC Group, Brookfield, Fortum, Siemens, Allianz, Merck, Hapag-Lloyd, RWE, Atlantia, Snam, NTT, SoftBank Group, Aegon, Naturgy Energy, Motorola Solutions Friday: Deutsche Telekom, KDDI, Honda Motor, Alibaba   For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.  Source: Saxo Bank
Record-breaking but near-peak inflation in Britain

Record-breaking but near-peak inflation in Britain

Alex Kuptsikevich Alex Kuptsikevich 19.05.2022 08:40
UK consumer prices rose by 2.5% in April, the second-biggest monthly gain in the indicator’s history since 1988. Annual inflation jumped from 7% to 9%, unseen in the indicator’s history. Metals, meanwhile, have withdrawn from the highs The longer-established retail price index last saw a high annual growth rate (11.1% y/y in April) in 1982, while such a big monthly jump (3.4% m/m) was last observed in 1980. However, despite the horror that these figures represent, there are still indications that the UK’s peak annual rate of inflation will be much lower than in the 1980s (22%) or 1970s (27%). While Output Producer Prices are showing an acceleration in the annual growth rate, rising to 14%, Input PPI has slowed from 19.2% to 18.6%. Although remaining volatile in recent weeks, oil and gas have regularly retreated from highs, limiting upward pressure on prices. Metals, meanwhile, have withdrawn from the highs. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Early hints that UK inflation may be slowing in the coming months may allow the Bank of England to raise the rate by 25 points At the same time, there are growing questions about final global demand, which will constrain producers in shifting costs to consumers. Early hints that UK inflation may be slowing in the coming months may allow the Bank of England to raise the rate by 25 points at its next meeting in mid-June and not copy the Fed’s 50-point move. This is moderately negative news for the British currency, which started to retreat from the $1.25 area on the data after a 2.9% rally from last Friday’s lows. Short-term traders should pay particular attention to the 1.2350 area. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Already, a dip lower this week would suggest that the brief period of recharging dollar bulls has ended. In this case, GBPUSD could quickly fall below 1.2000, making the 1.1500 area a potential ultimate target for this attack Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Eurozone: We Will Be Able To Have A More Detailed Look At The Economy As PMI Data Is Released

Rates Spark: The rates upside remains real | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 20.05.2022 08:41
Completing the shift of the market narrative towards growth concerns, bonds are reasserting their role as safe havens. The European Central Bank minutes confirmed the Council's desire to act faster, also with an eye on still ultra low real yields  Risks remain to the upside for rates Bonds' negative correlations with risk assets consolidates amid growth concerns As markets continue to trade in a risk-off fashion, bonds have managed to reassert their role as safe havens. The pattern of bond curves consistently rallying flatter as risk assets sell off has only reestablished itself over the past few sessions. In a way this dynamic completes the transition of the market narrative toward growth concerns, away from being dominated by central banks' prospective tightening lifting market rates out the entire curves. bonds have managed to reassert their role as safe havens This does not mean that data releases couldn't shift the focus again. Next week will offer some opportunities with the release of the flash PMI surveys for instance. And if the Fed deems inflation (expectations) are not coming down fast enough, it may well use the FOMC minutes next week to signal more hawkish moves. The 75bp-hike discussion is not entirely off the table. Unlike the ECB, the Fed has used its meeting minutes as a more active communications tool, such as outlining its plans for the balance sheet run-off. We will also watch the PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge at the end of next week. Risk-off drives curves flatter Source: Refinitiv, ING ECB minutes, outdated but also highlighting the upside in rates The ECB minutes have been overtaken by the quick evolution of ECB communication since the last meeting. The indication now is that a majority of the Council is backing ending net asset purchases in June and hiking for a first time in July is already common place. And markets are attaching some probability to hikes larger than 25bp. The ECB has to increasingly grapple with potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations That does not mean that the known objections of the Council’s doves are invalid: too fast tightening being counterproductive, weighing on growth without being able to do anything about inflation driven by supply shocks. The line of reasoning still holds and explains market concerns reflected in current curve flattening. But the ECB has to increasingly grapple with potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations with some of the related measures already displaying notable shifts. This shift in some inflation expectation measures had been outlined by Isabel Schnabel in one of her more recent speeches. She had also highlighted the still very low level of real yields. This hawkish argument was also found in yesterday’s minutes, with real yields remaining low while the rise in nominal yields was not enough to dampen aggregate demand and bring down inflation in the medium term. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM EUR real rates have a long way to go Source: Refinitiv, ING   It is worth noting that back around the April ECB meeting the 10Y swap rate was just below 1.6% versus a current level of 1.65%, although following a decent rally after a brief excursion above 2% earlier this month. Real rates remain deeply negative regardless of the maturity, and if this is a measure considered instrumental at reining in inflation over the medium term, then we may have to reckon with more upside to rates. The important question is whether the ECB will have enough time to realize its goals.   The ECB's "separation principle" is still lacking detail The "separation principle" referenced in the ECB accounts states the idea that monetary policy could be set independently from any measures designed to avoid disruptions triggered by any such policy tightening. More specifically to the current situation, Eurozone sovereign bond spreads could be managed while the ECB starts hiking. However, as of now the ECB has still not provided any details on how such a tool could look in practice. Beyond stating the need to keep flexibility and pointing to the potential use of pandemic emergency purchase programme reinvestments, it appears there is no desire to have a broader discussion on the topic just yet. With ECB plans still vague, Italian bonds especially remain vulnerable With ECB plans still vague, Italian government bonds especially remain vulnerable. In the current risk-off environment Italian bonds are still positively correlated with Bunds, ie, they do not trade as risk assets, but the spreads have started to rewiden towards 195bp in 10-year maturities. We still think the market could test out widening this spread towards 250bp before the ECB steps in. ECB plans remain vague, leaving Italian bond spreads vulnerable to further widening Source: Refinitiv, ING Today's events and market views In terms of data and events it will be a quieter session today. The main focus will be on central bank speakers with the ECB's Muller, Kazaks Lane, and Centeno all scheduled for the day. In the UK we will hear from the Bank of England's Chief Economist Huw Pill. Main data of note is the Eurozone consumer confidence. In this shaky risk environment, we expect bonds to retain their poise. It would take a lot of good news for yield upside to resume at the long-end, but central bankers should keep the heat on shorter rates. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Monero? Explaining XMR. Untraceable Cryptocurrency!? | FXMAG.COM Read this article on THINK TagsRates Daily Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Hungarian Labour Markey Data And Turkish Monetary Policy Are Going To Arouse Our Interest | Key events in EMEA next week - 19/05/22 | ING Economics

Hungarian Labour Markey Data And Turkish Monetary Policy Are Going To Arouse Our Interest | Key events in EMEA next week - 19/05/22 | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 19.05.2022 23:47
Labour market figures in Hungary and Turkish policy rates are the key releases to look out for next week The Central Bank of Turkey Content Hungary: Double-digit wage growth expected in March Turkey: Policy rate to remain on hold Hungary: Double-digit wage growth expected in March Next week we will see the latest set of labour market data in Hungary. After a significant jump in wages in February due to a six-month bonus payment to the armed forces, we expect a more moderate growth rate in March. However, due to the labour shortage and the minimum wage increase, this moderate rise will still be well into double-digit territory, around 14% year-onyear. We don’t see any significant change in the unemployment rate as the latest surveys show that companies are still complaining about a lack of labour and are ready to hire new workers. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Litecoin (LTC)? A Deeper Look Into The Litecoin Platform| FXMAG.COM Turkey: Policy rate to remain on hold Recent Central Bank of Turkey moves that 1) tightened reserve requirements to curb TRY commercial loan growth and 2) aimed to encourage a higher take-up of FX-protected deposits on the retail side and strengthen its FX reserves moves, signal that there is no reason to expect the bank to change its stance and policy rate in the near term. This is despite ongoing challenges to external balances and the inflation outlook. Given this backdrop, we expect that the policy rate will be kept unchanged at 14%. Read next: Altcoins: What Is PancakeSwap (CAKE)? A Deeper Look Into The PancakeSwap Platform| FXMAG.COM EMEA Economic Calendar Source: Refinitiv, ING, *GMT TagsTurkey Hungary EMEA Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Has Macron-Biden Conversation Caused The Rally Of Crude Oil Price?

Inflation - Poland: Consumption boom and upward price pressures continue | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 23.05.2022 16:30
April retail sales growth was supported by low base effects, “consumption smoothing” by domestic consumers as well as purchases by and for refugees from Ukraine. Construction output growth eased and has serious headwinds ahead. In June, the MPC may hike the main policy rate by 100bp in order to curb inflationary pressure A tight labour market should keep CPI inflation elevated in Poland Strong retail sales from a low reference base The consumer boom continues. In April, retail sales jumped by 19.0% year-on-year (ING: 16.7% YoY; consensus: 16.1% YoY). Such a strong annual growth was facilitated by a low reference base from April 2021, but that is not the only explanation for the strong reading. Retail sales, %YoY Source: GUS.   Buoyant consumer spending is supported by solid domestic demand. Soaring prices have not significantly reduced purchases as consumers continue to spend despite higher price levels. The monthly seasonally-adjusted real data for different sales categories looks robust. This is all happening despite high inflation, very poor consumer sentiment, and uncertainty caused by war. Demand for goods is fuelled by rising wages and fiscal expansion, including tax cuts.   The inflow of refugees from Ukraine is an additional boost to consumption, particularly in sales of clothing and footwear (up by 121.4% YoY). The high volatility of sales in this category is also linked to the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions.   Implied retail sales deflator increased to 12.1% YoY in April from 11.3% YoY in March. Consumer demand remains robust and high price pressures persist. Construction activity slows amid declining home sales Signs from construction are clearly less optimistic as activity softened visibly last month. Construction output rose by 9.3% YoY vs. an increase of 27.6% YoY in March (ING: 16.6%YoY; consensus: 18.7%YoY). Seasonally-adjusted data points to a 5.1% MoM decline. The decline in activity was broad-based, however, the smallest monthly drop was reported in civil engineering, due to ongoing spending of local and EU funds on infrastructure. The coming months will be tough for residential construction due to: (1) the hit to housing demand from higher interest rates and more restrictive regulations, (2) the sharp upswing in prices of materials, (3) mounting shortages of labour, including outflows of Ukrainian workers and (4) elevated uncertainty linked to the war in Ukraine. Construction output, 2015=100 (S.A.) Source: GUS. Bottom line The beginning of 2Q22 brings buoyant consumer demand and persistently high price pressures. Retail sales data, although somewhat distorted by a low reference base, points to strong consumer demand. This could fuel second-round effects (producers passing higher costs onto output prices). The scale of upward pressure on producers’ costs is reflected in the PPI index, which jumped by 23% YoY in April, so companies have higher costs, which should drive up inflation in coming months.   Data on retail sales, PPI and wages provide strong arguments for further interest rate hikes. The MPC should take further policy action in order to prevent inflation from spiralling. In June, the MPC may hike the main policy rate by 100bp. We still see the NBP reference rate at 7.5% this year and the terminal rate at 8.5%, with upside risk. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
US Indices - S&P 500 And Nasdaq Decreased On Friday!

Indonesia’s central bank keeps rates unchanged, citing global growth concerns | ING Economics

ING Economics ING Economics 24.05.2022 10:16
Bank Indonesia opted to hold out on rate hikes for now, keeping rates untouched to bolster the economic recovery Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo has hinted that he will consider tightening policy if inflation becomes a problem 3.5% BI policy rate   As expected Central bank remains unfazed by simmering inflation pressures Bank Indonesia (BI) kept policy rates unchanged at 3.5%, matching the market consensus. BI Governor Perry Warjiyo cited concerns about the pace of global growth suggesting that Indonesia’s ongoing economic recovery would need support from monetary authorities. BI retained both growth and current account projections from the previous meeting but recognised the threat of rising price pressures.  Warjiyo indicated that inflation would remain under control although he admitted that inflation expectations warranted monitoring. BI may have felt less pressure to hike policy rates today after fiscal authorities rolled out a subsidy package to help contain the recent increase in food and energy prices.  Inflation remains on the uptrend but BI appears confident that fiscal measures can contain price pressures Source: Badan Pusat Statistik Bank Indonesia enacts dovish pause We had expected BI to keep policy rates unchanged at today’s meeting, however we believed that Governor Warjiyo would at least set the table for a June rate hike. Warjiyo did the exact opposite by pledging sustained support for the economic recovery and citing Indonesian rupiah (IDR) stability.  It appears the central bank remains confident that inflation can be contained by subsidies rolled out by fiscal authorities and that IDR would remain supported by a healthy trade surplus in the near term. As such, it appears BI is in no hurry to hike policy rates in the near term unless we see a substantial pickup in core inflation in the coming months and or heightened weakness from IDR. With BI enacting a dovish pause, expect IDR to come under some pressure as BI opts not to join the rate hike camp for now.      Read this article on THINK TagsInflation IDR Bank Indonesia Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The Grains Sector Saw Continued Demand| Acceleration In The Sale Of Gold

Crude Oil And Price Of Gold (XAU/USD) Head Higher | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 25.05.2022 14:24
White House unnerves oil markets Oil prices continued to range trade overnight, finishing almost unchanged in New York. Asia, though, has seen both Brent crude and WTI rise. A couple of items seem to be behind the move. A sharp 4.20 million drop in gasoline inventories late in New York from the API Inventory data is likely supportive, with gasoline prices becoming a major issue in the US. Following on from that, White House officials explicitly refusing to say possible crude export restrictions were off the table appears to have spooked Asian suppliers. The last thing the world needs right now is US crude oil export restrictions with global supplies already tight. That saw both Brent crude and WTI spike 1.0% higher in early Asian trade, although those gains have eased as the session has gone on. Brent crude is 0.90% higher at USD 114.70 a barrel, and WTI is 0.65% higher at USD 110.90 a barrel. The White House likely needs to “clarify” its stance, least it creates unintended consequences by pushing crude prices higher. Brent crude, notably, is testing multi-week resistance today. Brent crude is testing resistance at USD 114.70 today, which is followed by USD 116.00, with support at USD 112.00. Failure of USD 116.00 could set up a retest test of my medium-term resistance at 120.00. ​ WTI is taking comfort from the White House stance and is sitting in a USD 108.00 to USD 112.00 a barrel range. Nevertheless, a topside breakout by Brent crude will almost certainly drag WTI higher as well, precisely what President Biden doesn’t want. Gold rises once again Gold had another decent overnight session, buoyed by lower US yields and a still-weakening US Dollar. Gold finished 0.69% higher at USD 1866.50 an ounce. In Asia, some US dollar strength has seen it weaken slightly by 0.40% to USD 1859.00 an ounce. Overall, although I acknowledge gold’s upward momentum, I remain sceptical of its longevity until it manages to hold on to material gains in the face of US dollar strength. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM The technical picture continues to remain supportive, and it seems only a marked US dollar recovery will cap gold’s rally. Gold took out resistance at the double top at USD 1865.00 an ounce which becomes intraday support, followed by USD 1845.00 and USD 1840.00 an ounce. It should now target USD 1886.00, its 100-day moving average. That would open up a test of USD 1900.00, although I suspect there will be plenty of option-related selling ahead of that level. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Bank Of England Is Expected To Choose Between 50 and 75bp, Ethereum Arouses More And More Discussions As Merge Is Around The Bend

What's The Future Of British Pound (GBP)? Stocks: Snap Has Fallen! How Far Will New Zealand Dollar Go!? | Least worst choices | Oanda

Jeffrey Halley Jeffrey Halley 25.05.2022 11:05
RBNZ hikes by 50-bps The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised policy rates by 0.50% to 2.0% this morning, with Governor Orr setting a hawkish tone in the press conference afterwards. In the statement itself, the RBNZ’s “least worst choices” policy seemed to imply that although external risks remained, the domestic economy was strong and could tolerate tighter monetary conditions. Mr Orr seemed to be saying much the same, suggesting that terminal rates could go above 3.0% and would get there sooner, rather than later. We’ll see just how strong the New Zealand economy is in due course, but a hawkish RBNZ has seen the New Zealand dollar rally by 0.70% to 0.6505 today, making it the biggest currency gainer in Asia today. Elsewhere, Singapore’s GDP growth came in tight on expectations, rising by 3.70% YoY for Q1. With inflation data yesterday also less worse than expected, expectations for another unscheduled tightening by the Monetary Authority of Singapore have receded for now. That may bring some relief to the Malaysian ringgit, which has fallen to 3.20 against the Singapore dollar. Snap Has Fallen In Malaysia itself, Inflation data for April continues to remain benign as domestic demand stays subdued. Inflation YoY rose by just 2.30% and will leave Bank Negara, like Bank Indonesia yesterday, in no hurry to tighten monetary policy. Ominously though, the Malaysian ringgit has shown no strength versus the US dollar. USD/MYR remains at recent highs at 4.4000 even as the greenback is experiencing an extended bull market correction versus the G-10 and EMFX elsewhere. If the US dollar turns higher once again, and the MYR resumes its sell-off, Bank Negara’s hand might be forced. Overnight, the recession word weighed on stock markets once again. European PMI data was a mixed bag. Manufacturing PMIs held steady, while Services PMIs fell as consumer demand takes a hit from the rise in the cost of living. That wasn’t enough to stop the euro rally, powered by suddenly hawkish ECB heavyweights. Bank of England, has already signalled a white flag on bringing down inflation The picture was rather grimmer in the United Kingdom where the most honest central bank in the world, the Bank of England, has already signalled a white flag on bringing down inflation and pencilled in a recession next year. UK Manufacturing PMI held steady at 54.6, but Services PMIs plummeted to 51.8. The UK is facing a winter of discontent as the cost of living soars, with the railways RMT union voting to strike over pay negotiations. Expect more of this going forward. Additionally, the Chancellor is apparently preparing to widen the scope of the windfall tax on energy companies, probably to help pay for his cost of living mini-budget. UK stock markets didn’t like that. Finally, the “party gate” report on those lockdown wine frenzies in the No 10 garden is due for release today, potentially putting more pressure on PM Johnson’s leadership. ​ Little surprise that the sterling slumped versus the euro and the US dollar overnight. In the United States, the recession world hit particularly hard after the Snap Inc. induced meltdown by Nasdaq stocks overnight. US New Home Sales plummeted to 591,000 in April, while Richmond Fed Manufacturing slumped to -9 in May. The S&P Global Services Flash PMI for May fell to 53.5, with Flash Manufacturing easing to 57.5. It was the new home sales that really frightened the street, though, as house building, and its ancillary services and suppliers are a good chunk of US domestic GDP. Soaring mortgage interest rates and petrol prices appear to be doing a lot of the Fed’s work for it before it even gets started. Read next: (TRX) TRON USD Decentralised Blockchain Platform That Focuses On Entertainment And Content Sharing. Altcoins: A Deep Look Into The TRON Network | FXMAG.COM If there is one takeout from all of this for me, it is that rising inflation and borrowing rates are already crimping the demand side of the equation. Unfortunately, we are seeing very little sign of price pressures reducing due to a combination of factors, all of which have been thrashed to death here and in research everywhere. The uncomfortable reality is that central banks are going to be forced to continue the tightening path, even as growth slows around the world, because inflation has proven sticky and not transitory. That is the least worst choice central banks need to make in a stagflationary environment. I am asked every day if we have seen the low in the equity market sell-off. Hopefully, I have answered the question. US President Joe Biden’s trip around Asia continues Finally, US President Joe Biden’s trip around Asia continues. Unfortunately, with its emphasis on containing China and hawking a trade agreement empty of potential access to the US domestic market (Congress needs to approve that), the trip is not going to make much headway in re-establishing US leadership in the region. Asia really needs to see the colour of America’s money. Furthermore, the reliability of the US as a partner has taken a further hit today, with White House officials explicitly refusing to rule out the possibility that the US could enact crude oil export restrictions to help cap energy prices domestically. The US doesn’t have a crude oil problem, it has a refining and transportation problem, but let’s not let facts get in the way. I have warned about food nationalism previously, but if President Biden prioritises November’s mid-term elections over the economic war with Russia, and supporting Europe, it really is every man for himself globally. I can’t see that being positive for equities anywhere, or European asset markets full stop, or for Ukraine. Only the Kremlin is likely to be popping champagne as the US does Russia’s divide and conquer for them. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Fed And US Dollar (USD) Are All About Mixed Feelings, Christine Lagarde And ECB In General May Support Euro Even In July. BoE's Bailey Also Teases A Rate Hike. XAU, XAG And Crude Oil Went Higher As USD Weakened | OneRoyal

Fed And US Dollar (USD) Are All About Mixed Feelings, Christine Lagarde And ECB In General May Support Euro Even In July. BoE's Bailey Also Teases A Rate Hike. XAU, XAG And Crude Oil Went Higher As USD Weakened | OneRoyal

OneRoyal Market Updates OneRoyal Market Updates 30.05.2022 10:14
Weekly Recap It was another bearish week for the US Dollar as the greenback continued to sell off from YTD highs. The FOMC meeting minutes, released mid-week, did little to inspire a fresh rally in the Dollar. While the minutes confirmed the Fed’s hawkish stance and reinforced expectations for further 50bps hikes in June and July, there was little in the way of exciting details to get bulls reinvigorated. Additionally, with the Fed having seemingly turned more hawkish since that meeting, the minutes felt a little outdated. Christine Lagarde, ECB And Rate Hikes On the data front, a string of weaker-than-expected indicators out of the eurozone heightened growth concerns. With ECB’s Lagarde essentially confirming a July rate-hike, recession fears weighed on European asset markets though EUR itself remained well bid. Elsewhere, equities markets generally saw a choppy week though most indices ended the week in the green, benefitting from the weaker US Dollar. Read next: Altcoins: What Is Polkadot (DOT)? Cross-Chain Transfers Of Any Type Of Asset Or Data. A Deeper Look Into Polkadot Protocol | FXMAG.COM BOE’s Bailey warned that further rate hikes will likely be necessary in the face of rising inflation. The new fiscal package announced by the UK government this week, aimed at helping households fight rising energy bills, has further increased the likelihood of BOE rate hikes in the near-term. Weaker Dollar, Stronger Crude, Gold And Silver Commodities prices were higher over the week also. Gold, silver and oil all rallied on the back of a weaker US Dollar. With monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks drying up, USD pressure has helped commodities stay afloat recently. Coming Up This Week Australian GDP Australian GDP will be closely watched this week on the back of the recent RBA rate hike. With the bank lifting rates and sounding firmly hawkish in its outlook and assessment, this week’s data might further support growing RBA rate hike expectations. With the country having emerged from one of the longest lockdowns of the pandemic, the economy has been on the bounce-back. However, as we have seen elsewhere, the economy has still been rocked by rising inflation and supply constraints. Traders will be keen to see the extent to which these factors weighed on the economy over the last quarter. BOC Rate Decision The BOC is widely expected to raise rates when it convenes for this month’s meeting mid-week. All 30 economists polled by Reuters ahead of the event are looking for a .5% hike. With this in mind, the focus will be on the bank’s forward guidance. If the BOC gives a clear signal that further hikes are coming in the near future, this should drive CAD higher near-term. However, if there is any indication that the BOC might look to hold off on any further rate hikes near-term, this will likely see cad dragged lower. Read next: Altcoins: Cardano (ADA) What Is It? - A Deeper Look Into Cardano (ADA) | FXMAG.COM US Non-Farm Payrolls The latest set of US labour market indicators this week will be closely watched as we head to the June meeting. Recent Fed commentary has been decidedly hawkish and it would likely take a major downside shock to change this narrative. Even then, it certainly wouldn’t impact the June rate hike and would likely only factor in forward guidance issued by the Fed. Still, with slowdown fears building, any weakness would no doubt act as a headwind to risk sentiment in the short-term. Forex Heat Map Technical Analysis Our favourite chart this week is the Dollar Index (DXY) The DYX has pulled back from recent multi-year highs and is now sitting on a make-or-break level at 101.94. This level was the 2020 closing high price. While the level holds as support, DXY is likely to recover and continue the longer-term bull trend. Below here, however, there is room for the correction to develop further towards next support at 100.37 Economic Calendar Plenty of key data releases to keep an eye on this week including Australian GDP, BOC rate decision and US Non-Farm Payrolls to name a few. Please see full calendar below for the complete schedule . Follow FXMAG.COM on Google News
Walt Disney Results Are Beyond  All Expectations. Large Chinese Company Fires More Than 9K Employees!!! Market Newsfeed - 11.08.2022

We Could Say High Prices Of Crude Oil, Metals And Other Commodities Are About Not Only Negative Effects, But Also About A Profit For Some People | Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 30.05.2022 12:42
Summary:  Commodities have seen hefty prices increases in the past two years, which is bad for inflation and for life in general but is one of very few asset classes where a profit can be made in very depressed markets.​ It’s hardly news that the cost of living – or inflation – is going up at a rate which the world hasn’t seen for decades. Food is getting more expensive, electricity is going up, it is more costly to buy and build stuff. In short, everything you want to do and consume costs (a lot) more than it did a year ago.There is one area – or in finance lingo, asset class – which is the root cause of this situation, and it has politicians and economists scratching their heads to find solutions: commodities. Commodities are the basic input to everything we do. It covers energy production, raw materials, metals, food, etc.When you look at commodities from a societal point of view, there isn't a lot of good news:“In short, what happens in the commodity sector is troubling. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 24% on the first quarter and if you look at average annual returns it has almost doubled since 2020,” says Ole Hansen, Head of commodity strategy at Saxo. In this quote, Hansen points to something interesting when dealing with an asset class like commodities, because it affects both the financial markets, and day-to-day life. When investing in an index, which is up that much in such a short time, you would usually be celebrating, but it isn’t always a good thing for commodities to climb so high, so fast.“Commodities are the basic input for everything we do, which means that when they get more expensive, so does everything else. Commodities need to find a more stable level for consumers and companies alike to feel comfortable, which no one is now,” says Hansen.As Hansen describes, surging commodity prices can have grave effects on society at large especially in less wealthy parts of the world, and its solution can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. “Most people will have to wind back on their spending. This will cause an economic slowdown, which hurts, but unfortunately seems to be the only cure right now against high inflation,” he says.The other edge While commodities need to become more stable for its societal impact, the asset class remains an enticing investment opportunity in a market where it seems like it is almost the only one you can look for a profit, even if there’s an economic slowdown. This is due to the supply and demand dynamics we are experiencing right now.Central banks are hiking rates to kill – or slow – the demand side, which is yet another reason why companies and thus equities are struggling. This should, in theory, also push the prices of commodities down, but then let’s turn our heads towards the supply side.Here, especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the strict COVID-19 lockdowns in China, suppress the supply of many key commodities. This creates a dramatic imbalance between supply and demand, which means that even a global economic slowdown most likely wouldn’t bring it back to an equal footing.“If I had to pick one area to look for inspiration, it would be the metal industry. There’s a lot of amped up construction in China due to the lockdowns, which means that once they are lifted, the metal space could see a substantial increase in demand from them,” says Hansen.Queued up construction in China can push metal prices, which also could be a long play on the mining sector within equities."The equity market is probably the most difficult since the 2007-2009 financial crisis years due to a combined factor of persistently high inflation and equity valuation compression from higher interest rates. We believe that the world will be in a commodity super cycle and thus should be exposed to this through mining companies both short and long term. China's slowdown is just short-term noise. It changes nothing regarding mining companies over the coming years," says Peter Garnry, Head of Equity strategy.
The Euro Will Strengthen, But Questions Remain About What To Do Next

Supporting EUR, USD And Others - What Is Interest Rate? What Is A Negative Interest Rate | Binance Academy

Binance Academy Binance Academy 01.06.2022 16:55
TL;DR It doesn’t make much sense to lend money for free. If Alice wants to borrow $10,000 from Bob, Bob will need a financial incentive to loan it to her. That incentive comes in the form of interest – a kind of fee that gets added on top of the amount Alice borrows. Interest rates profoundly impact the broader economy, as raising or lowering them greatly affects people’s behavior. Broadly speaking: Higher interest rates make it attractive to save money because banks pay you more for storing your money with them. It’s less attractive to borrow money because you need to pay higher amounts on the credit you take out. Lower interest rates make it attractive to borrow and spend money – your money doesn’t make much by sitting idle. What’s more, you don’t need to pay huge amounts on top of what you borrow. Learn more on Binance.com Introduction As we’ve seen in How Does the Economy Work?, credit plays a vital role in the global economy. In essence, it’s a lubricant for financial transactions – individuals can leverage capital that they don’t have available and repay it at a later date. Businesses can use credit to purchase resources, use those resources to turn a profit, then pay the lender. A consumer can take out a loan to purchase goods, then return the loan in smaller increments over time. Of course, there needs to be a financial incentive for a lender to offer credit in the first place. Often, they’ll charge interest. In this article, we’ll take a dive into interest rates and how they work.   What is an interest rate? Interest is a payment owed to a lender by a borrower. If Alice borrows money from Bob, Bob might say you can have this $10,000, but it comes with 5% interest. What that means is that Alice will need to pay back the original $10,000 (the principal) plus 5% of that sum by the end of the period. Her total repayment to Bob is, therefore, $10,500. So, an interest rate is a percentage of interest owed per period. If it’s 5% per year, then Alice would owe $10,500 in the first year. From there, you might have: a simple interest rate – subsequent years incur 5% of the principal or  a compounded interest rate – 5% of the $10,500 in the first year, then 5% of $10,500 + $525 = $11,025 in the second year, and so on.   Why are interest rates important? Unless you transact exclusively in cryptocurrencies, cash, and gold coins, interest rates affect you, like most others. Even if you somehow found a way to pay for everything in Dogecoin, you’d still feel their effects because of their significance within the economy. Take a commercial bank – their whole business model (fractional reserve banking) revolves around borrowing and lending money. When you deposit money, you’re acting as a lender. You receive interest from the bank because they lend your funds to other people. In contrast, when you borrow money, you pay interest to the bank. Commercial banks don’t have much flexibility when it comes to setting the interest rates – that’s up to entities called central banks. Think of the US Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China, or the Bank of England. Their job is to tinker with the economy to keep it healthy. One function they perform to these ends is raising or lowering interest rates. Think about it: if interest rates are high, then you’ll receive more interest for loaning your money. On the flip side, it’ll be more expensive for you to borrow, since you’ll owe more. Conversely, it isn’t very profitable to lend when interest rates are low, but it becomes attractive to borrow. Ultimately, these measures control the behavior of consumers. Lowering interest rates is generally done to stimulate spending in times when it has slowed, as it encourages individuals and businesses to borrow. Then, with more credit available, they’ll hopefully go and spend it. Lowering interest rates might be a good short-term move to rejuvenate the economy, but it also causes inflation. There’s more credit available, but the amount of resources remains the same. In other words, the demand for goods increases, but the supply doesn’t. Naturally, prices begin to rise until an equilibrium is reached. At that point, high interest rates can serve as a countermeasure. Setting them high cuts the amount of circulating credit, since everyone begins to repay their debts. Because banks offer generous rates at this stage, individuals will instead save their money to earn interest. With less demand for goods, inflation decreases – but economic growth slows.   ➟ Looking to get started with cryptocurrency? Buy Bitcoin on Binance!   What is a negative interest rate? Often, economists and pundits speak of negative interest rates. As you can imagine, these are sub-zero rates that require you to pay to lend money – or even to store it at a bank. By extension, it makes it costly for banks to lend. Indeed, it even makes it costly to save. This may seem like an insane concept. After all, the lender is the one assuming the risk that the borrower may not repay the loan. Why should they pay?  This is perhaps why negative interest rates are something of a last resort to fix struggling economies. The idea comes from a fear that individuals may prefer to hold onto their money during an economic downturn, preferring to wait until it recovers to engage in any economic activity.  When rates are negative, this behavior doesn’t make sense – borrowing and spending appear to be the most sensible choices. This is why negative interest rates are considered to be a valid measure by some, under extraordinary economic conditions.   Closing thoughts On the surface, interest rates appear to be a relatively straightforward concept to grasp.  Nevertheless, they’re an integral part of modern economies – as we’ve seen, adjusting them can fundamentally alter the behavior of individuals and businesses. This is why central banks take such a proactive role in using them to keep nations’ economies on track. Do you have more questions about interest rates and the economy? Check out our Q&A platform, Ask Academy, where the Binance community will answer your questions.
Cyberpunk: Edgerunners Premiere Date & New Trailer Revealed!

Can Apple Stock Plunge Today!? Fed Decision May Affect US Dollar (USD), S&P 500, Gold (XAUUSD) And Crypto (e.g. Bitcoin Price & ETHUSD) | Swissquote

Swissquote Bank Swissquote Bank 15.06.2022 10:28
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its latest rate decision today, but most of the wild ride is certainly done by now; the market fully prices in a 75bp hike at today’s decision. The aggressive rise in hawkish Fed expectations pushed the US 2-year yield to 3.45% on Tuesday. The 10-year yield flirted with 3.50%. The S&P500 lost another 0.38%, while Nasdaq eked out a small 0.20% gain, but after hitting a fresh low since November 2020. The US futures are in the positive this morning, but the market will likely remain tense until the Fed breaks the news that it hikes by 75bp. The updated economic projections and the dot plot have an important weight for future expectations. Bigger rate hikes from the Fed, and the soaring US dollar are certainly not a gift for other central banks. The US dollar is a base currency, and the rapid appreciation in the greenback increases the cost of the goods that the other countries negotiate in terms of US dollars on international markets, starting from oil and commodities. As a result, a stronger US dollar is a bigger inflation threat for the world. This is why, the hawkish Fed expectations have a bigger domino effect power on the rest of the world. The German 10-year yield continues pushing higher, and the EURUSD sees a decent support near the 1.04 threshold after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced an unscheduled meeting to discuss the market turmoil. Cable slipped below the 1.20 mark, and a 25bp hike from the Bank of England (BoE) may not suffice to compensate the hawkish Fed, and the renewed Brexit fears.   Watch the full episode to find out more! 0:00 Intro 0:27 The Fed decision 4:26 Market update 5:32 Gold, Bitcoin down 6:43 FedEx jumps & dividend paying stocks see higher interest 7:41 Expensive dollar threatens ECB, BoE 8:52 FTSE to feel the pinch of engdangered Brexit deal Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020. #Fed #FOMC #decision #dotplot #ECB #unscheduled #meeting #BoE #USD #EUR #GBP #CHF #Bitcoin #MicroStrategy #crude #oil #gold #market #selloff #SPX #Dow #Nasdaq #investing #trading #equities #stocks #cryptocurrencies #FX #bonds #markets #news #Swissquote #MarketTalk #marketanalysis #marketcommentary _____ Learn the fundamentals of trading at your own pace with Swissquote's Education Center. Discover our online courses, webinars and eBooks: https://swq.ch/wr _____ Discover our brand and philosophy: https://swq.ch/wq Learn more about our employees: https://swq.ch/d5 _____ Let's stay connected: LinkedIn: https://swq.ch/cH  
Bank Of England Is Expected To Choose Between 50 and 75bp, Ethereum Arouses More And More Discussions As Merge Is Around The Bend

The US Inflation - What Are The Predicted Prints?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 12.07.2022 13:05
Relevance up to 10:00 2022-07-13 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Markets are currently focused on the US CPI report for June, which will be released on Wednesday, July 13. Forecasts show that inflation will continue to grow, where headline inflation, which includes changes in the cost of food and energy, will increase by 1.4% month-over-month and by 8.7% year-over-year. Seeing that prices have accelerated even more, inflation has every chance of reaching 8.7%. Statistics Austria reported that in addition to the increase in fuel and heating oil prices, there has also been significant growth in restaurant and food prices. If CPI turns out as expected, the Fed will most likely make another 75 basis point rate hike at the FOMC meeting later this month, especially given last week's employment report. They may also announce a fourth increase this year. The central bank began raising rates last March, the first time since 2018. The increase back then was 25 basis points, followed by a 50 bp increase in May and a 75 bp increase in June. The CME FedWatch tool sees the same scenario, indicating a 93% chance that the Fed will raise rates again by 75 basis points this month. This outlook weighs heavily on US equities, pushing the USD index up and lowering gold prices.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/315917
The GBP/USD Pair Was Trading Calmly But The Volatility Still Remained Very High

UK: Recession In The End Of 2022? Scary Projections Of Bank Of England!

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 08.08.2022 09:36
Summary:  In today’s ‘Macro Chartmania’, we give an update on the British economy. A few months ago, we warned the UK economy is one of the developed countries most likely to enter into a recession. There is no debate about it anymore. Last week, the Bank of England updated its macroeconomic forecasts for the years until 2025. These are frightening. The United Kingdom is projected to enter into a recession in Q4 2022. This could last five quarters and cause GDP to fall about 2.1 % - as deep as the recession of the early 1990s. But this is not the worst. Very often, the economy rebounds quite sharply after a recession. This is unlikely to happen this time. The slump will last. The BoE sees GDP still 1.75 % below today’s levels in mid-2025. Click here to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania composed of more than 100 charts to track the latest macroeconomic and market developments. All the data are collected from Macrobond and updated each week. The United Kingdom is more and more looking like an emerging market country: Political instability (the new Prime Minister will be announced on 5 September after Boris Johnson’s resignation), trade disruptions (due to Brexit and Covid-related bottlenecks), energy crisis (the risk of a blackout this winter is real) and high inflation (the Bank of England forecasts that UK CPI will peak at 13 % in October but this is certainly a bit optimistic) are all hurting the UK economy. The only major difference : there is no currency crisis. The sterling pound exchange rate is rather stable. It only dropped 0.70 % against the euro and 1.50 % against the U.S. dollar over the past week. Our bet : after surviving Brexit uncertainty, we don’t see what could push the sterling pound into a free fall. All the leading indicators point in the same direction : The worst is yet to come for the British economy. There is a consensus among economists about that very fact. The OECD’s leading indicator for the United Kingdom, which is supposed to anticipate reversals in the economy six to nine months in advance, fell to 98.6 in June. The annual rate was 7.3 % in June 2021 (partially reflecting the post-lockdown rebound). It now stands at minus 2.9 %. The change is impressive over a year. This is not only linked to Covid data noise. This is a clear sign that a recession is coming. In addition, new car registrations, which are often considered as a leading indicator of the overall UK economy, continue to drop. This also reflects the deep collapse in consumer confidence (see chart below). In July 2021, after the peak of the pandemic, new car registrations stood at 1,835,000. They now stand at 1,528,000, a sharp drop of 14%. This is the lowest level since the end of the 1970s. The recession will be long and deep. There won’t be an easy escape. This is the most worrying, in our view. The Bank of England assesses the slump will last with GDP still 1.75 % below today’s levels in mid-2025. What Brexit has not done by itself, Brexit coupled with Covid and high inflation have succeeded in doing. The UK economy is crushed. The window for further rate hikes is closing :   Last week, the Bank of England hiked interest rates by 50 basis points, from 1.25 % to 1.75 %. We think the Bank of England’s next rate hike in September (probably of 50 basis points) could be the last. Outside of the jobs markets, there are signs that some of the key inflation drivers may be starting to ease. In addition, the prospect of a long recession (five negative quarters of GDP starting in Q4 2022 all the way through to Q4 2023) will certainly push the Bank of England into a wait-and-see position. On the topic of balance sheet reduction, we don’t expect any changes in the medium-term. Gilt sales will begin shortly after the September meeting. They will amount to £10bn per quarter the first year (this amount will be revised each year). We think the Bank of England has a rather traditional approach to deal with the current macroeconomic situation. Domestic demand must be slowed down by pushing GDP below its potential level, thus increasing unemployment and lowering inflation. A key rate of 2.25 % could already have a noticeable positive impact on the overall inflation dynamics, in our view. However, this is too early to know whether the current tightening cycle will definitely be over in September. The inflation dynamics have been a bit unpredictable in recent months. This is the least we can say. The social contract is broken : Imagine the graduate entering the workforce in 2009/10, who will have been told this was a once-in-a-lifetime crash. They are now in their early 30s and having yet another once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis. They faced an economy of suppressed wages, no housing prospects, two years of socializing lost to lockdown, obscene energy bills and rent and now a lengthy recession. This will lead to more poverty and despair. The Bank of England is now forecasting that real household post-tax disposable income will fall by 3.7 % over this year and next. This would be easily the weakest two years on record since 1963. The lowest income is hit the hardest. The International Monetary Fund found the poorest households in the United Kingdom are amongst the hardest hit by the cost of living in Europe. They found that living costs for the poorest 20 % of households are set to rise by about twice as much as those for the wealthiest, for instance. If this situation would happen in France, there would be a street revolution. Remember the Yellow Vest Movement in 2018. But this is the United Kingdom. It will unlikely lead to any major political shift. There will be more social distress, wealth inequality and poverty all around, however. The sixth largest economy in the world will look even more like an emerging market country, unfortunately.     Source: Chart of Week Emerging market Britain | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Poland: Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) Decreased

Podcast: Walt Disney, Electric Vehicles, US CPI And More In The Latest Saxo Market Call

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 10.08.2022 13:20
Summary:  Today we discuss the possible reactivity to today's US July CPI data point, especially if a hotter than expected core reading challenges the market's determined bet that inflation is set to roll over and normalize over the next couple of years. We also look at an equity market that is technically rolling over, a US dollar that needs to choose a direction, and compelling commodity stories and chart points in gold, crude oil and coffee. A semiconductor, EV, deglobalization, and Walt Disney focus on the equity coverage today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via this link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.   Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-aug-10-2022-10082022
Bitcoin Has Been Trading The Bottom Line, Will Be Further Rally?

Crypto: As Expected! Bitcoin Price Rose After The Release Of The US CPI!

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 11.08.2022 13:37
Relevance up to 10:00 2022-08-12 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Bitcoin reacted to the CPI print by climbing 5.1% to $24,180 After the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.5% year-on-year, cryptocurrency prices surged. While inflation has remained at one of its highest levels in decades, the actual data came in below the expected 8.7%, prompting traders to return to the markets. Bitcoin reacted to the CPI print by climbing 5.1% to $24,180, where it hit a solid bearish resistance wall that remains the last significant barrier ahead of $28,000. If today it closes higher, it will go further. Traders breathed a sigh of relief after the release, which came in 0.2% below expectations as it could potentially lead to a less aggressive Fed rate hike schedule. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) At the last two meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the central bank has raised interest rates by 75 basis points each time, and yesterday's decline in the CPI compared to the previous month was the first evidence that the actions taken by the central bank are beginning to bear fruit. The positive reaction to the lower-than-expected CPI was immediate, with prices in the cryptocurrency market and traditional markets rising following the news. And growth will likely continue, at least next week. What's Ahead Of Bitcoin? What will happen next with Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency market, and global financial markets, in general, largely depends on the further actions of the Fed. In the broader altcoin market, there has been an even more pronounced reaction following the release of the CPI yesterday. Several of the top 200 coins posted double-digit gains, while the top altcoin, Ether (ETH), gained almost 9%. Crypto Market Capitalisation The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently at $1.14 trillion, and the Bitcoin dominance rate is 40.3%.   Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/318692
Expectations For The US Dollar To Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH) Pair

GDP Of China May Reach 4% And Go Even Deeper. Foreign Trade Is Affected By Covid, Inflation And More

ING Economics ING Economics 16.08.2022 08:59
Real estate property construction, home sales and mortgages are just part of the weaknesses we have seen in the Chinese economy. Export demand could also weaken in the coming months. This will derail job growth in China, creating a vicious cycle on consumption and economic growth despite Covid measures becoming more flexible We are downgrading China's GDP growth to 4% in 2022, from 4.4% Central bank policy rate cut China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBoC), has lowered the Medium Lending Facility 1Y policy rate (MLF) to 2.75% from 2.85% and the PBoC 7D reverse repo rate to 2% from 2.1%. This is the first cut since January, in a move that indicates the re-emergence of China's downward economic cycle.   We expect banks to cut the Loan Prime Rate for 1Y to 3.6% from 3.7%, and for 5Y to 4.30% from 4.45%. Weaknesses in the economy go beyond real estate The economy's downward cycle is not just coming from lower demand for home sales and fewer home-building activities. It is due to a broad-based slowing in retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investments.  Retail sales only grew at 2.7% year-on-year in July compared to 3.1% in June. As the surveyed jobless rate was still high at 5.4%, consumption could continue to grow slowly in the coming weeks. My preferred gauge of an average consumer's retail behaviour – clothing sales – grew at a mere 0.8%YoY in July. This is lower than the headline, which indicates that the general public is spending only a little more than last year.  Industrial production grew slower at 3.8%YoY from 3.9%, mainly from weaker growth in materials for home-building activities. Semiconductor production fell 16.6%YoY, which confirms that the industry is entering a downward cycle as global demand for smart devices is going to be lower than in previous years. This makes up a big part of exports not only for Mainland China but also for other Asian economies. Textiles contracted 4.8%YoY, which could reflect not only weak domestic demand but also high inflation which is affecting export demand.  Fixed-asset investments growth slowed to 5.7%YoY year-to-date in July from 6.1%. The weakness was mainly from the slow growth in private-owned enterprise investments, which only grew 2.7%YoY YTD, compared to state-owned enterprise investments of 9.6%YoY YTD. The bright spot was electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, which should form part of state investments for infrastructure projects.   Forecasts Due to this set of activity data and the PBoC's rate cuts, we are downgrading China's 2022 GDP growth from 4.4% to 4%. A further downgrade is still possible, depending on export demand, which is suffering from high inflation, the ongoing Covid situation, and unemployment growth in Mainland China.  Read this article on THINK TagsSemiconductor PBoC Monetary policy GDP China Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Euro (EUR) And British Pound (GBP) Losing The Race Against U.S. Dollar (USD)! 1 Year Statistics

Euro (EUR) And British Pound (GBP) Losing The Race Against U.S. Dollar (USD)! 1 Year Statistics

Conotoxia Comments Conotoxia Comments 22.08.2022 16:44
The recent behavior of the euro and the British pound and their potential weakness against the rest of the world's major currencies is beginning to bring concerns about a sustained deterioration in the prospects for these currencies. As Bloomberg commentators note, the behavior of the pound and the euro are worrisome. We have recently seen large shifts in the euro and pound's short-term market interest rates against the U.S. dollar, with a simultaneous weakening of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD exchange rates. Last week was the worst week for the pound in nearly two years, and at the same time, the yield on the UK's 2-year bond rose by 50 basis points. Typically, the opposite happens in developed markets. Expectations of a central bank rate hike and thus an increase in short-term market yields generally strengthen the currency. The collapse in the correlation between the exchange rate and interest rates is usually associated with emerging markets, which may have lost the battle for the credibility of keeping inflation within the inflation target. The energy dependence of the UK and Europe as a whole means that their balance sheets could deteriorate in the near future, while energy commodity inflation shows no signs of abating. Rate hikes in such a situation may not stem the tide of depreciation of the aforementioned currencies, Bloomberg reports. Thus, it seems that the winter months for the EUR and GBP may be a kind of test of the credibility of the economies in the eyes of investors. Their abandonment of investments in the EUR and GBP despite rising interest rates could be potentially worrying. Moreover, it could change the entire scene of the foreign exchange market. In the dollar index, the euro has a weighting of more than 57 percent, while the pound has a weighting of more than 11 percent. Together, these two currencies alone have a weighting of almost 70 percent. Since the beginning of the year, the euro against the U.S. dollar has lost almost 12 percent, and the British pound almost 13 percent. In contrast, since August 2021, the euro has lost almost 15 percent to the dollar, and the British pound less than 14 percent. Of the major currencies, only the Japanese yen has fared worse and has weakened by almost 20 percent against the U.S. dollar over the year. Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.   Source: Pound and euro similar to currencies of emerging markets?
Can We Expect Better Movements In The European Currency (EUR)?

🚨Oh My! Eurozone Inflation Shocks! Have A Look At These Numbers!

ING Economics ING Economics 31.08.2022 11:34
August inflation jumped to 9.1%, another leg up in inflation as supply shocks persist. Core inflation increasing from 4% to 4.3% will be the key concern for the ECB in the run-up to next week’s governing council meeting The gas supply crisis and droughts are adding to persisting supply-side pressures on inflation at the moment   The eurozone inflation rate ticked up from 8.9% to 9.1% in August. The increase was mainly seen in processed food and goods prices, but services also ticked up slightly. Energy inflation fell for the second month in a row on base effects and lower petrol prices, despite soaring gas and electricity prices. The main concern is the surprise increase in goods inflation. The increase from 4.5% to 5% was much larger than expected and fuels worries about second-round effects from the input cost shock lasting longer. Global supply-side pressures have been easing in recent months. Commodity prices have fallen, including food and oil, which has resulted in lower prices at the pump. Transportation costs have also moderated, and inputs are more widely available again. Still, specific European problems continue to push inflation higher. The gas supply crisis and droughts are adding to persisting supply-side pressures on inflation at the moment. Demand-side inflation remains weak in the eurozone. The output gap is still negative, household consumption is well below pre-pandemic levels and retail sales have in fact been on a declining trend since November. The latest negotiated wage growth data for 2Q came in at 2.1%, which means there is no evidence of a wage-price spiral at this point, but that the eurozone is mainly facing an unprecedented squeeze in real incomes. As the economy is slowing rapidly – and perhaps already contracting at this point – the question is how much the ECB needs to slam the brakes. Another hike of at least 50 basis points in September seems to be a done deal, with the hawks pushing for 75bp. The big question is how the ECB will respond after this, if indeed signs of economic distress become more apparent, and inflation remains highly driven by supply-side factors. Read this article on THINK TagsInflation GDP Eurozone ECB Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Price Of NASDAQ Remains Inside The Medium-term Downward Sloping Channel

The ECB Is Paying The Price For Its Decision. Risk Assets Are Struggling In The Aftermath Of Powell’s Speech.

Kenny Fisher Kenny Fisher 31.08.2022 15:34
Stock markets in Europe turned lower again on Wednesday while US futures are more mixed, similar to what we saw in Asia overnight. Conditions remain choppy in the aftermath of Jackson Hole last week. There’s clearly a lack of conviction in the markets following a lot of hawkish central bank commentary in recent days. The narrative that investors want to believe is that inflation has peaked and is falling in the US and that a soft landing is plausible. That doesn’t necessarily align with what we’re hearing. Add to that the increasingly hawkish language from other central banks amid severe economic headwinds and the reality of the situation is seemingly becoming impossible to ignore. With 75 basis point hikes now on the table for the US, EU and UK next month, among others, it may not be entirely surprising that investors are taking a more cautious stance. ECB paying the price for dragging its feet amid record inflation The inflation data from the eurozone this morning won’t have hurt the odds of a 75 basis point hike, that’s for sure. Inflation in the bloc rose 9.1% in August, up from the previous record of 8.9% in July. With core inflation also jumping to 4.3% from 4%, the pressure is seriously mounting on the ECB to be more aggressive. The central bank is paying the price for its decision to leave the deposit rate at -0.5% for as long as it did and may have to be much more forceful now as a result. Price pressures are becoming more widespread, with energy increases easing slightly but food, alcohol and tobacco inflation accelerating to 10.6%. The inflation situation is, unfortunately, going to get worse, perhaps much worse, before it gets better, considering what’s to come with energy this winter. Gas flows halted, nervy few days ahead Gas flows through Nord Stream One have now paused for the three-day maintenance period. While Europe is keen to stress its storage levels are well ahead of schedule, the failure of flows resuming on Saturday would be a massive blow ahead of what is already going to be a nervy and expensive winter. European gas prices are near their recent highs and will likely remain so over the coming days until flows resume. If they don’t, prices could rise much further. Can bitcoin hold out much longer? Risk assets are struggling in the aftermath of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, the only exception arguably being bitcoin which fell heavily in the immediate aftermath but has now found its feet. In fact, it’s posting gains of more than 1% today, bucking the trend we’re seeing elsewhere, with risk assets generally underperforming. Once more we’re seeing resilience in bitcoin around $20,000; the question is how long can it hold out if sentiment doesn’t improve? For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Rising Interest Rates. How High Can They Rise?

Rising Interest Rates. How High Can They Rise?

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 04.09.2022 10:36
Global inflation is higher, reflecting the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ongoing supply constraints, and strong demand. Many central banks are tightening monetary policy to combat inflation, and the resulting tighter financial conditions are moderating economic growth. Bank of Canada expected to raise interest rate In July, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100 bp. It was the largest single rate increase since August 1998 after a series of hikes that began in March. Previously, the rate had been at 0.25 per cent where it sat since it was slashed to near-zero early in the pandemic.The BoC increased its target for the overnight rate to 2,5%, with the Bank Rate at 2,75% and the deposit rate at 2,5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT). At press conference, Tiff Macklem - Governor explain what prompted your decision. The most important stimulus was that inflation in Canada was higher and more persistent than the Bank expected in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and the fear of further growth as well as the lack of workers and many goods and services. Demand needs to slow down for supply to catch up and the price pressure to ease off. And the most important goal of monetary policy is to restore inflation to 2% and to achieve price stability. Source: www.bankofcanada.ca As shown by data from the Canadian bank, inflation slightly decreased. As inflation fell, the unemployment rate also fell in 22Q2. What could be positive news for the Canadian economy. According to the Bank's July speculation, inflation will fall to around 3% by the end of 2023 and will return to the 2% target by the end of 2024. Therefore, economists predict that there will be another rate hike in September. Some of Canada's major banks are forecasting the central bank will raise the key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, bringing it to 3.25 per cent. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 7, 2022. Some economists think Wednesday's hike could be the last for a while. The RBA will raise rate by 50 bp? At meeting at 2 August 2022, the Board of RBA decided to increase the cash rate target by 50 basis points to 1.85 %. In the simplest terms, the RBA cash rate is Australia’s official interest rate. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 50 basis points to 1.75 %. The Board places a high priority on the return of inflation to the 2–3% range over time, while keeping the economy on an even keel. The path to achieve this balance is a narrow one and clouded in uncertainty, not least because of global developments. Inflation in Australia is the highest it has been since the early 1990s. In headline terms, inflation was 6.1 % over the year to the June quarter; in underlying terms it was 4.9 %. Global factors explain much of the increase in inflation, but domestic factors are also playing a role. There are widespread upward pressures on prices from strong demand, a tight labour market and capacity constraints in some sectors of the economy. The Bank's central forecast is for CPI inflation to be around 7,75% over 2022, a little above 4 % over 2023 and around 3 % over 2024. Australia Inflation is expected to peak later this year and then decline back towards the 2–3 % range. The expected moderation in inflation reflects the ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, the stabilisation of commodity prices and the impact of rising interest rates. Forecasts that the RBA will raise the monetary rate by 50 basis points at its meeting on September 6, raising rates to 2.35%. Not only the economic situation shows this, but also the analysis of previous decisions. The interest rate hypotheses will be confirmed or disproved at the Tuesday meeting. Source: www.bankofcanada.ca, www.rba.gov.au
The EUR/USD and The GBP/USD Markets Were Bearish Yesterday, Will It Be The Same Today?

ECB Will Continue To Hike Rates To Slow Inflation?

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 03.09.2022 15:10
The ECB's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt is to be held on Thursday 8 September. What can we expect? The Governing Council normally meets twice a month at the premises of the ECB in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. The Governing Council assesses economic and monetary developments and takes monetary policy decisions every six weeks and bases its monetary policy decisions, including the evaluation of the proportionality of its decisions and potential side effects, on an integrated assessment of all relevant factors. This assessment builds on two interdependent analyses: the economic analysis and the monetary and financial analysis. At Thursday's meeting, a decision will be made whether interest rates will be raised again. When prices in European economy are rising too fast and when inflation is too high – increasing interest rates mey help bring inflation back down. The Governing Council may discuss another important step on the path to normalizing interest rates that was signaled at the previous meeting. This decision is based on the Governing Council's updated inflation risk assessment. Does economy data influence on hiking intrest rates? The European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time since 2011 in July '22 to tackle eurozone inflation that increased to 8.6% ta those oeriod. In a surprise move, the ECB pushed its base rate up by 0.5 percentage points, after economists had expected a smaller 0.25 point rise. The economy on the old continent is slowing down. This is due to high inflation, greater uncertainty and supply problems. These factors significantly obscure the prospects of our economy for this year and the following years. German Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.1, down from 49.3 in July. It was a similar story for the eurozone Manufacturing PMI, which dropped from 49.8 to 49.6. After the publication of data from Germany the euro has weakened. The euro's fall to parity against the dollar for the first time in two decades also poses problems for the ECB – letting the currency fall exacerbates inflation, but the opposite approach could hit growth. Also, as of July 2022, the inflation rate in the European Union was 9.8 %. The current rate of inflation in the EU is higher than at any other time. High inflation has become the dominant concern of citizens in many countries. After this data, there is a high probability of an increase from 50bp to 75bp. Future interest rate decision will largely depend on the latest data. The initiative is aimed at helping to achieve the inflation target of 2% in the medium term. ECB’s Monteary Policy The pandemic and the war in Ukraine have fostered inflationary forces. So central banks have had to shift their focus from tackling low inflation to combating high inflation. The ECB’s monetary policy response to the higher inflation outlook can clearly be rationalised based on the new strategy – in particular its symmetric inflation target. The new ECB strategy has contributed to a more solid anchoring of inflation expectations at 2%. Monetary policy decisions taken by the ECB’s Governing Council since July 2021 have been firmly grounded in the strategy. In a rapidly changing world, the ECB’s monetary policy strategy will likely need to be reviewed and adapted more regularly. Source: Eurostat.com, Investing.com, ecb.europa.eu
The GBP/USD Pair Follows The Trend Of The EUR/USD Pair, Could This Change?

UK Inflation Is The Highest In Decades!!! China Still Closing Factories, Toyota And Apple Are In Danger?

Saxo Strategy Team Saxo Strategy Team 18.08.2022 09:48
Summary:  U.S. equities took a pause from their week-long advance, with S&P 500 retreating before its 200-day moving average. Target’s Q2 results disappointed as the retailer suffered from high inventories and U.S. consumers shifted from discretionary to grocery items. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S.’s advance higher took a pause yesterday amid higher bond yields and disappointing results from Target (TGT:xnys), -2.7%. Target’s Q2 earnings fell sharply and missed consensus expectations on weaker gross margins due to slower sales in discretionary items and inventory impairments.  Lowe’s (LOW:xnys) reported mixed results, with earnings beating estimates but same-store sales growth weaker than expected. Higher U.S. bond yields triggered by a dramatic rise in U.K. bond yields and reported pension fund rebalancing-related selling added to the equity weakness.  S&P 500 dropped 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 shed 1.2%.  U.S. treasury yields rose from spilling over from a massive rise in U.K. Gilt yields and weak 20-year bond auction U.S. 10-year treasury yields jumped 9bps to 3.05%, taking cues from the sharp move higher in U.K. Gilts and European sovereign bond yields following white-hot UK CPI data. Long-end yields moved further higher on poor results from the 20-year auction.  Short-end yields fell in the late afternoon after the July FOMC minutes signaling that it “would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases” which reaffirmed the market’s expectation of a 50bps, instead of 75bps on the September FOMC.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIQ2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index bounced modestly by 0.5%; CSI399 gained 9.6%. Meituan (03690:xhkg) rallied 3.3% after a 9% drop yesterday due to a Reuters story suggesting that Tencent (00700:xhkg) plans to divest its 17% stake (USD24 billion) in Meituan. Tencent denied such a divesture plan last night.  Power tools and floor care equipment maker and a supplier to Home Depot (HD:xnys) and Wal Mart (WMT:xnys), Techtronic Industries (00669:xhkg) jumped more than 10% after better-than-expected results from the two U.S. retailers. China Resources Power (00836:xhkg) +5.7% after reporting weak 1H22 results but more wind and solar projects on the pipeline. Other Chinese power producers also outperformed amid power shortages. China Power (02380:xhkg) surged more than 8%. On Tuesday, China’s Premier Li Keqiang visited Shenzhen and held a meeting with provincial chiefs from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan to reiterate the central government’s push for full use of policies to stabilize the economy. Hong Kong Exchanges (00388:xhkg) fell 1.6% after reporting lower revenues, higher costs, and a 22% YoY decline in EPS, worse than market expectations. After the market close, Tencent reported weak but in line with expectations revenues and better-than-feared earnings in Q2. Tencent’s ADR climbed 3.5% overnight from the Hong Kong close. AUDUSD eying the labor market report, GBP will see more pain ahead A mixed session again overnight for the US dollar with FOMC minutes and US retail sales failing to provide any fresh impetus to the markets. AUDUSD was the biggest loser on the G10 board, sliding below 0.7000 to lows of 0.6911 after real wage data for Q2 showed a massive slump. Labor market data due this morning could further weigh on RBA expectations, if it comes out softer than expected. The weakness seen in the commodity markets, especially iron ore and copper, weighed on the antipodeans. GBPUSD stays above 1.2000 despite a 40bps gains in UK 2-year yields after the double-digit UK CPI print. USDJPY tested the resistance at 135.50 but was rejected for now. Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Crude oil prices made a slight recovery overnight, with WTI futures getting back to over $87/barrel and Brent futures close to $94 after data showed US inventories fell sharply. Sentiment was also supported by comments from OPEC’s new Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, who said that world oil demand will rise by almost 3mb/d this year. He also said there is a high chance of a supply squeeze this year, in part because fears of slowing usage in China are exaggerated. This helped to take the focus off the prospects of the Iran nuclear deal for now. What to consider? Stale FOMC minutes hint at sustained restrictive policy Fed’s meeting minutes from the July meeting were released last night, and officials agreed to move to restrictive policy, with some noting that restrictive rates will have to be maintained for some time to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, there was also talk of slowing the pace of rate hikes ‘at some point’, despite pushing back against easing expectations for next year. The minutes were broadly in-line with the market’s thinking, and lacked fresh impetus needed to bring up the pricing of Fed’s rate hikes. Chairman Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium next week will be keenly watched for further inputs. US retail sales were a mixed bag July US retail sales are a little softer at the headline level than the market expected (0% growth versus the +0.1% consensus) but the ex-auto came in stronger at 0.4% (vs. -0.1% expected). June’s growth was revised down to 0.8% from 1%. The mixed data confirmed that the US consumers are feeling the pinch from higher prices, but have remained resilient so far and that could give the Fed more room to continue with its aggressive rate hikes. Lower pump prices and further improvements in supply chain could further lift up retail spending in August. UK CPI opens the door for another 50bps rate hike UK headline inflation hits 10.1%, the highest in decades and above the 9.8% expected and for the month-on-month reading of +0.6%, higher than the +0.4% expected. Core inflation hit 6.2% vs. 5.9% expected and 5.8% in Jun. That matched the cycle high from back in April. Retail inflation rose +0.9% MoM and +12.3% YoY vs. +0.6%/+12.0% expected, respectively. The Bank of England has forecast that inflation will peak out this fall at above 13%. While the central bank forecasted a recession lasting for five quarters at the last meeting, it will be hard for them to not press ahead with further tightening at the August meeting, and in fact the scope for another 50bps rate hike is getting bigger. Reserve Bank of New Zealand hikes 50 basis points to 3.00%, forecasts 4% policy rate peak The RBNZ both increased and brought forward its peak rate forecast to 4.00%, a move that was actually interpreted rather neutrally – more hawkish for now, but suggesting that the RBNZ would like to pause after achieving 4.00%. RBNZ Governor warned in a press conference that New Zealand home prices will continue to fall. This is actually a desired outcome after a huge spike in housing speculation and prices due to low rates from the pandemic response and massive pressure from a Labor-led government that had promised lower housing costs were behind the RBNZ’s quick pivot and more aggressive hiking cycle in 2021. Australian wages grew at their quickest pace in eight years, but less than expected Australia’s wage-price index gained 0.7% in the second quarter, just shy of estimates further pressuring the Aussie dollar back toward its 50-day moving average against the US dollar. Annual wage growth came in at 2.6% but real wages - adjusted for headline inflation fell 1% QoQ, and was 3.3% lower than a year earlier, eroding consumer spending power. What’s next. All eyes will be on Australia’s Reserve Bank which might be pressured to hike more than expected at its September meeting. Despite Australian wages growing slower than expected, the RBA estimates retail gas and electric prices to rise 10-15% in the second half of the year, so that will be a focus point when they consider their next move in interest rates. Tencent reported weak but in-line Q2 revenues and better-than-feared earnings Tencent reported a revenue decline of 3% YoY in Q2, weak but in line with market expectations.  Non-GAAP operating profit was down 14% YoY to RMB 36.7 billion and EPS fell 17% YoY to RMB2.90 but they beat analyst estimates.  Revenues from advertising, -18% YoY, were better than expected.  In the game segment, weaker mobile game revenues were offset by stronger PC game revenues. Disappointing results from Target and mixed results from Lowe’s Target reported EPS of USD0.39, missing estimates.  The company indicated strength in food and beverage, beauty, and household essentials but weaker in discretionary categories.  Gross margin of 21.5%, down from 30.4% year-ago quarter and below expectations. Lowe’s reported better than expected EPS of USD4.67 (vs consensus USD4.58) but a decline of 0.3% in same-store sales.  Lowe’s inventories grew 11.6% YoY, substantially lower than peer Home Depot.  With a 15% increase in product costs, the inventory volume was in effect down low-single digit. Power crunch in China shut factories Chongqing is limiting power supply to industrial users from yesterday to next Wednesday.  In Sichuan, Foxconn’s Chengdu factory is suspending operations for six days from August 15 to 20 due to a regional power shortage. The suspension is affecting Foxconn’s supply of iPad to Apple.  The company says the impact “has been limited at the moment” but it may affect shipments if the power outage persists.  The Chengdu government is imposing power curbs on industrial users to ensure electricity supply for the city’s residents.  Toyota and CATL are also suspending some operations in Sichuan due to a power shortage. Foxconn has started test production of the Apple watch in Vietnam Foxconn has started test production of the Apple watch in its factories in Vietnam. With the passage of CHIPS and Science Act earlier this month in the U.S., investors are monitoring closely if Taiwanese and Korean chipmakers as well as their customers may be accelerating the building up of production capacity away from China.  World’s biggest Sovereign Wealth fund posts its biggest half-year loss on record   Norway’s oil fund, the world’s biggest owner of public traded companies lost 14.4% in the six months through to June. In currency terms that’s $174 billion. The slump was driven by the fund’s loss in technology stocks with Meta Platforms (owning Facebook and Instagram) and Amazon, leading the decline. However, just like the market, the fund’s energy sector delivered positive share price performance, benefiting from a sharp rise in earnings in the oil, gas, and refined energy product sector. Meanwhile, investments in logistics property helped the fund’s unlisted real estate holdings gain 7.1%, though they account for 3% of its assets. Japan’s inflation will surge further Japan’s nationwide CPI for July is due to be reported at the end of the week. July producer prices came in slightly above expectations at 8.6% y/y (vs. estimates of 8.4% y/y) while the m/m figure was as expected at 0.4%. The continued surge reflects that Japanese businesses are waddling high input price pressures, and these are likely to get passed on to the consumers, suggesting further increases in CPI remain likely. More government relief measures are likely to be announced, while any little hope for a Bank of Japan pivot is fading. Bloomberg consensus estimates are calling for Japan’s CPI to accelerate to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% previously, with the ex-fresh food number seen at 2.4% y/y vs. 2.2% earlier. For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – August 18, 2022
The AUD/USD Currency Pair Trading At Its Lowest Level Since Two Years, Hang Seng Index Was Flat

The AUD/USD Currency Pair Trading At Its Lowest Level Since Two Years, Hang Seng Index Was Flat

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 07.09.2022 09:54
Summary:  Good news to the US economy spells bad news to the bond markets and equities. Crude oil prices stumble on restricted movements in the city of Guiyang in China, while the Newcastle Coal price moves to its own beat roaring to a brand new record high. With this in light, Australian GDP data will be a focus today with Australian coal exports hitting $100 billion. USDJPY at record highs again, so what's next for that FX pair, plus why to watch the AUDUSD. Plus what to expect from the Bank of Canada today, and NIO earnings. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  Good news to the economy is bad news to the bond markets and the stock market.  The solid ISM Services data removed the little remaining hope of a soft landing from the mind of bond traders and pushed up yields and the higher bond yield in turn dragged down the stock markets.  After the end of the reporting season and companies headed for the blackout period, stock traders spent their days mulling over what the Fed is going to do next and turned deeper into the belief that the summer rally might end up being a bear market rally and decided to trim long positions amid low liquidity and lack of retail participation. The unfolding of an energy crisis across the pond in Europe added to the negative sentiment.    S&P500 was down 0.4% and Nasdaq100 declined 0.7% on Tuesday. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY:xnas) tumbled 18.4% following the news that the company’s CFO committed suicide, the announcement of firing 20% of its workforce and selling 12 million of new shares.  U.S. treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) After the much strong than expected ISM Services prints, treasuries were sold off, 2-year yields +12bps to 3.5%, 10-year yields +16bps to 3.35%; 30-year yields +16bps to 3.50%. The money market curve is pricing in over a 70% chance of a 75bp hike at the September FOMC and a terminal rate of about 3.90%. The long-end of the curve was also pressured by the announcement of 19 investment grade new issues with a total amount over USD35 billion.   Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) A-Shares in the mainland markets noticeably outperformed shares traded in the Hong Kong bourse.  CSI300 surged almost 1% but Hang Seng Index was flat. The escalated natural gas price in Europe cast doubts on the resilience of the European chemical industry to maintain its output level of basic chemicals and encouraged expectations of Chinese basic chemical makers to export more to Europe. The A-share basic chemical space gained over 3%.  Increases in lithium carbonate prices caused a rise in the share prices of lithium miners.  The National Energy Administration released a consultative paper that encourages the development of the national electric grid to enable the taking up of more solar power onto it.  The non-ferrous metal names gained after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued draft guidelines on reaching the stage of intelligent manufacturing for the non-ferrous metal industry by 2025.  Intelligent manufacturing is solve optimization problems in production by utilizing real-time data analysis, artificial intelligence, and machine learning.   Shares of Chinese property developers listed in Hong Kong surged after Guangzhou R&F (02777:xhkg) sold a hotel for RMB550 million and CIFI (00884:xhkg) sold a Hong Kong site.  These asset disposals stirred up optimism about improving the balance sheet and liquidity of Chinese developers, Country Garden (02007:xhkg) +9.3%, Longfor (00960:xhkg)+5.8%, and China Resources Land (01109)+4.5%. Electric vehicle manufacturers rebounded from 1% to 3%, bringing the industry’s week-long meltdown in share prices to a halt.Newcastle Coal prices hit new record highsAs Europe is facing an energy crisis this winter, it will need to increase energy imports. So, in anticipation of such a scenario, this might explain why the Australian coal price trades at a record, along with the futures price. We already know the UK importing is Australian LNG, so consider Australian coal could be heading to Europe more broadly next. Australian energy supply is already likely to run low in 2023, which also supports coal prices running higher. But for coal companies, their earnings and free cash flow will likely increase. Coal companies have been the best performers in global equities this year, after delivering the most earnings growth, with some companies like Whitehaven Coal (WHC) seeing 1,500% earnings growth YoY. Coal loaded at Australia’s Newcastle port hit $436.71, an all-time high. And triple the price this time last year. Coal futures prices are $463, implying the coal price will move up.USDJPY at record highs againA run higher in US yields, with 30-year yields touching 3.5%, underpinned a further move lower in the Japanese yen. USDJPY inched higher to 143.55 this morning in Asia, printing a fresh 24-year high. The market is challenging the Bank of Japan’s yield-cap policy yet again, and with no resistance in sight, the move and volatility is set to rise further. While the FX weakness alone may not be enough for the BOJ to pivot in order to maintain its credibility, higher oil prices and weakness in yen is spelling immense trouble on the inflation story as well. That could feed some pressure from the government on the BOJ policy.    The offshore yuan weakened to 6.98 At the back of the spreading of pandemic lockdowns and the strong U.S. dollar, USDCNH rose to 6.9800 and is set to challenge the 7 handle. USDCNY fixing will be on watch today, as a sharp depreciation of the currency is unlikely to be accepted just ahead of the 20th party congress that starts on October 16.  Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2) Demand concerns seemed to take over the supply issues yet again with China’s lockdowns extending further. The city of Guiyang joined Chengdu in restricting movement by the public amid renewed outbreaks of COVID-19. WTI futures slumped below $87/barrel while Brent dropped below $93. Global demand slowdown concerns also picked up after rate hikes this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced a 50bps rate hike on Tuesday, with Bank of Canada expected to go today and European Central Bank on the cards for tomorrow. A fresh surge in dollar also weighed on commodity prices.    What to consider? US ISM services in further expansion While the S&P services index continued to signal weakness with a 43.7 revised print for August, the ISM services on the other hand expanded further to 56.9 from 56.7 in July and came in above expectations. Business activity accelerated to 60.9 from 59.9, while the prices paid component remained elevated at 71.5, in contrast to the decline we saw to 52.5 for the manufacturing sector. New orders rose to 61.8 from 59.9 and employment rose into expansionary territory at 50.2 from 49.1.  China’s exports in August are expected to have slowed China’s exports in August would probably come in weaker (Bloomberg consensus: 13% YoY vs 18.0% YoY in July) as container throughput data suggested. The resurgence of pandemic control restrictions, production disruptions due to power rationing, and a high base last year could have contributed to the deceleration.  Economists are expecting China’s imports in August to slow (Bloomberg consensus: 1.1% vs 2.3% in July). South Korea’s August export data released last week showed a 5.4% YoY decline in total exports and a 3.4% YoY decline in chip exports to China.  Slower commodity inflation could have depressed China’s import growth as well in August. Australian economic growth data is a big focus today down under. If weaker than expected AUD could weaken Australian economic growth is expected to show 1% growth q/q in the second quarter and 3.5% y/y. GDP will likely get a boost from record commodity exports (which will likely account for 1% of GPD YoY), record retail sales, and a pickup in overseas travel. However, construction costs and hampered residential construction activity could weigh on the headline GDP figure. AUDUSD is on watch with the currency pair trading at its lowest level since June 2020. If the figures today are better than expected, we could see a knee-jerk short-term rally up. However, over the medium to longer term, the fundamentals support the USD moving up and the AUD potentially continuing to lose out with the favored FX currency, the USD gaining momentum and strength amid the energy crisis and Fed hawkishness. The technical indicators suggest the AUDUSD could also retest the March 2020 low of 0.61380, which is the currency pairs lowest level in 19 years. Australia’s Reserve Bank rose rates 0.5% to 2.35%, but it will do little to slow inflation The RBA hiked rates by 0.5% as expected yesterday, in a bid to stave off inflation, taking Australia’s official cash rate to 2.35%. The only thing that the RBA has slowed after hiking rates 1.75% so far since May is the property market. Property prices have seen their biggest drop since the 80’s and construction made its biggest decline since 2016. This is a credit concern as Australia has one of the highest debt levels in the world (debt to GPD is 126%). If the RBA keeps rising rates as they suggest, debt-to-income levels could hit GFC highs. The RBA’s rate hikes have done nothing to slow inflation, and coal prices, which are the biggest contribution to Australian CPI. What you need to consider, is how can the RBA's hikes fix the commodities supply/demand imbalance. We also think coal momentum is likely to rise in anticipation of demand picking up with peak energy season around the world, and Europe is likely to tap on Australia's shoulder for energy.   Australia’s trade surplus surged up for the 13th month, propelled by coal exports  Australia’s trade surplus rocked up to A$18.3bn in the June quarter, bolstering Australia’s balance on goods and services to A$43.1bn, which is the highest level on record. This was fueled by commodity exports and Australia’s trade balance (exports less imports) rising to a record after commodity exports hit a record high, with coal exports exceeding A$100bn annually for the first time. Bank of Canada to hike rates today After a July rate hike of 100bps, Bank of Canada meets again today. The consensus is calling for a 75bps rate hike to bring rates to a restrictive territory, given that inflation continues to run well above target and economic demand is holding up well. The pace of tightening is however likely to slow down in October, and so the messaging will be key to watch at today’s meeting.  NIO earnings ahead While the earnings release date for NIO has been moved around multiple times it should be final now so tomorrow one of China’s largest EV-makers will report Q2 earnings. Investors will focus on the Q3 outlook for revenue growth and margins in order to gauge when NIO can break even on its operations. California’s blackout threat worsens, and the state keeps nuclear power on standby  Amid a massive heatwave and wildfires sweeping the state, power use in California has hit an all-time high and officials have again warned residents to prepare for rolling blackouts. We first wrote about this on Monday but now the state’s grid operator issued another round of warnings, calling on consumers to limit energy demand while the state issued a level-2 energy emergency alert. Officials expect to ratchet the emergency warning up to level 3, which would mean blackouts are imminent. The prospect of outages underscores how grids are becoming vulnerable amid extreme weather as they transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.   For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.   Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – September 6, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Financial Conditions Look Quite Scary. How Central Banks Fight Inflation?

Financial Conditions Look Quite Scary. How Central Banks Fight Inflation?

ING Economics ING Economics 04.09.2022 11:00
Market rates are set to rise as financial conditions are not tight enough in the US; the US 10yr yield could even go as far as topping 3.5% again. That will pull rates higher elsewhere, including those in the eurozone. Remarkably, financial conditions are significantly tighter in the eurozone than in the US. That heaps more pressure on the Fed than on the ECB In this article So, how do central banks fight inflation exactly? Eurozone financial conditions are already looking quite scary Remarkably, US financial conditions are still too loose A stark contrast So, how do central banks fight inflation exactly? Central banks impact the macroeconomy by finessing financial conditions. It’s not as simple as setting official rates though; it requires the wider financial system to push in the same direction. Most importantly, market rates need to be in tune with central bank thinking. Credit spreads are key too; wider credit spreads add to the all-in funding costs for corporates and households, amplifying the impact of higher market rates. And this together with other central bank liquidity management tools will broadly determine overall financial conditions. Not sure I'd recognise a financial condition if I saw one ...   Source: ING estimates Eurozone financial conditions are already looking quite scary In the eurozone, the Bloomberg measure of financial conditions has seen a virtual collapse from June through to August. At the beginning of June, conditions were moderately tight (about 0.25 of a standard deviation below normal). By the end of August, they were extremely tight (some 2.5 standard deviations below normal). This contrasts with extremely loose conditions at the beginning of 2022 (1.5 standard deviations above normal). The ECB of course hiked in mid-July, preceded by an end to bond buying (and targeted longer-term refinancing operation unwinds), which tightened eurozone financial conditions. Remarkably, lower market rates and tighter credit spreads through July did not prevent an overall tightening in eurozone financial market conditions. In fact, they're looking quite scary right now. They are practically back to the extreme briefly seen when the pandemic first struck, and the only periods where eurozone financial conditions were tighter were during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2011. This suggests that the ECB has less to do. All they need to do is sustain this, not intensify it. Super big hikes are not needed. Remarkably, US financial conditions are still too loose There is a remarkable contrast to be drawn with the US, where financial conditions tightened right through to the end of June (1.5 standard deviations below normal), driven by Fed hikes, rising market rates and wider credit spreads. But then it reversed. A notable fall in market rates and a tightening in credit spreads, which ran from mid-June to end-July, loosened US financial conditions quite considerably, pulling them practically back to almost normal by mid-August. Remember the US 10yr yield fell from 3.5% to almost 2.5% during this period, and risk assets rallied. Hence the easing in conditions. This easing was counter-productive to the Fed’s stated ambition to tighten financial conditions, and was a factor underpinning the crystal clear speech from Chair Powell at Jackson Hole: this Fed wants and needs to see tighter financial conditions, and will do its bit to tighten them by hiking the funds' rate at upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meetings. In fact, in the lead-up, and through the second half of August, market rates and credit spreads reverted and started to do what they should be doing at this stage of the cycle, rising and widening respectively. A stark contrast Currently, we find a stark contrast between the eurozone and the US. US financial conditions are just 0.35 of a standard deviation below normal, while eurozone ones are 2.5 standard deviations below normal; even though it’s the Fed that’s done most of the tightening. From the perspective of the US, a required objective is to re-tighten conditions considerably from here, which is code for rising bond yields and widening in credit spreads, to be capped off with a 75 basis point hike from the Fed on 21 September. For the eurozone, things are more opaque. There is a deeper energy-impacted macro crisis afoot, and financial conditions are already super tight. Higher market rates and wider credit spreads ahead can deepen this further. The ECB can cap this off with a decent hike in September but does not need to do as much cajoling as the Fed might have to do in the weeks ahead. And the ECB does not need to do as much aggregate hiking either, relative to the job the Fed still has to do.     Source: https://think.ing.com/articles/rates-for-monthly-heres-why-rates-will-keep-rising/?utm_campaign=September-01_rates-for-monthly-heres-why-rates-will-keep-rising&utm_medium=email&utm_source=emailing_article&M_BT=1124162492   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The Move Of The Bank Of England Forced British Yields To Plummet

Real Wages Will Falling. Expected Actions Of The European Central Bank

ING Economics ING Economics 04.09.2022 09:21
The expanding negative energy shock is likely to initiate a recession from the third quarter and we're likely to see a GDP contraction. Rising natural gas prices are also keeping inflation higher for longer. A more hawkish ECB is likely to raise rates again in September and October, but the recession should put a - temporary - end to the tightening cycle In this article Recession is coming Energy shock erodes real incomes Inflation to come down only very gradually A more hawkish ECB Recession is coming After a relatively strong second quarter (+0.6% quarter-on-quarter) after Covid lockdowns were largely stripped away, the eurozone has now probably fallen into recession. The Composite PMI indicator fell in August to 49.2, the second month in a row below the 'boom-or-bust' level. With the forward-looking new orders component also declining again, it looks as if it is only going to be downhill in the coming months. And the strong inventory build-up will add to production cutbacks.  Survey indicators are at recession levels Source: Refinitiv Datastream Energy shock erodes real incomes The headwinds facing the eurozone are only increasing. The summer drought will not only hurt the agricultural sector, but the low level of the Rhine River is also distorting supply lines for German manufacturing, while in France the lack of cooling water is impacting nuclear power generation. This, however, is small fry compared to the breadth of the negative energy shock Europe is experiencing. Natural gas prices have more than tripled since June, pushing more energy-intensive companies to cut production or idle plants. The hit to household purchasing power is massive; real wages are falling more than 5% year-on-year. With consumer confidence hovering at very low levels, chances are slim that households will delve into their savings to uphold their consumption expenditures. And as companies are equally hit by the energy shock, final demand is faltering and financial conditions are tightening and we see business investment falling back in the coming quarters. As we expect the energy market to remain very tight (and prices therefore high) we pencil in three consecutive quarters of negative growth, starting in the third quarter of this year. This still results in 2.6% growth in 2022, mainly on the back of a strong carry-over effect, while for 2023 we now expect a 0.6% GDP contraction. Inflation to come down only very gradually As for inflation, the higher cost of natural gas is only partially compensated by slightly lower oil prices. On top of that, a natural gas levy in Germany will add to inflation from October onwards. This will keep headline inflation close to double-digit levels in the next three months. At the same time, underlying inflationary pressures are bound to soften on the back of the economic slowdown. In the business surveys, selling prices' expectations have now been moderating for a few months in a row, while supply chain tensions and shipping prices have also eased. And the second-round effects, popping up through higher wages, remain muted for now. As a matter of fact, negotiated wages only rose 2.1% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to the ECB. Putting it all together, inflation will only come down very gradually, although we see a return to the 2% level towards the end of 2023 as still feasible provided, of course, that energy prices don’t increase much further. Selling prices' expectations are moderating   A more hawkish ECB The European Central Bank has become somewhat more hawkish. In Jackson Hole, ECB Board Member, Isabel Schnabel, said that the uncertainty about inflation persistence requires a forceful policy response, a statement that was echoed by several members of the Governing Council. We therefore now expect a 50-basis point rate increase in September and another 25bp rise in October. Thereafter we still expect to see a long pause. Let’s be clear about this: if the ECB is consistent with the risk scenarios it published in June, it should already forecast a recession in its September staff forecasts. While the bank might still pull off a rate hike in October, the necessity of tightening further after that, in the midst of a worsening recession, will probably not appeal to the majority of the Governing Council members.   Inflation GDP Eurozone ECB   Source: https://think.ing.com/articles/monthly-eurozone-economy-set-to-shrink-in-2023/?utm_campaign=September-01_monthly-eurozone-economy-set-to-shrink-in-2023&utm_medium=email&utm_source=emailing_article&M_BT=1124162492   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Aramco Is Confident It Can Maintain Its Market Share In Asia

Singapore Expect Sales To Remain In Expansion. Austraila Expect A Very Strong Contribution To GDP From The Net Trade Side.

ING Economics ING Economics 03.09.2022 09:28
Next week's calendar is relatively light but we do have a key central bank decision and some inflation data out in the next few days In this article The week ahead Australia’s 2Q GDP report and the RBA meeting Price pressures continue to build in the Philippines Retail sales reports in Singapore   The week ahead Australia’s releases are in the spotlight this coming week as the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on policy while 2Q22 GDP data is also released. Within the rest of the region, the Philippines will report August inflation data that will likely show the continuation of the year-long upward trend. Meanwhile, Singapore's July retail sales data is expected to grow despite inflationary limitations. Australia’s 2Q GDP report and the RBA meeting We will get a day-ahead steer towards the GDP figure on 6 September, with the net export figures. The trade balance during 2Q22 was extremely strong relative to 1Q22, so we anticipate a very strong contribution to GDP from the net trade side. Domestic demand figures should also look pretty strong, though labour shortages may crimp this somewhat. A figure of 1.0% quarter-on-quarter seems possible to us, a bit stronger than the 1Q22 growth rate of 0.8%. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably not be swayed all that much by the GDP numbers, though they will likely be strong and tilt the balance a little towards larger rate increases. But the RBA will probably also have taken comfort in the 2Q22 wages price index, which showed a growth rate of only 2.6% year-on-year, softer than had been expected despite clear evidence of labour shortages and the record low unemployment rate. September will probably still deliver a 50bp rise in rates, taking the cash rate target to 2.35%, but there is a growing sense that the central bank may slow the pace of tightening from here on, and that may also add some downside risk to this meeting too.   Price pressures continue to build in the Philippines August inflation in the Phillippines will likely stay elevated given rising food prices and expensive energy. We predict inflation to settle at 6.4%YoY, flat from the previous month although still well above the central bank’s target. Transport fares are set to be adjusted higher, for the second time this year, which should ensure that inflation remains firmly on an upward trajectory in the coming months.  Retail sales reports in Singapore July retail sales will be reported next week. We expect retail sales to remain in expansion although the pace of growth should moderate from the previous month. Sales will be supported by the return of tourists although surging inflation should cap growth. Inflation recently hit 7%YoY, which should sap some consumption momentum.    Asia Economic Calendar   Source: Refinitiv, ING Asia week ahead Asia Pacific Asia Markets Asia Economics Source: https://think.ing.com/articles/asia-week-ahead-philippine-inflation-and-singapore-retail-sales/?utm_campaign=September-01_asia-week-ahead-philippine-inflation-and-singapore-retail-sales&utm_medium=email&utm_source=emailing_article&M_BT=1124162492   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Podcast: A Look At New Sources Of Concern, Financial Conditions Continue To Deteriorate Badly

Grantham: "My Bet Is That We're Going To Have A Fairly Tough Time Of It Economically And Financially"

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 01.09.2022 14:36
Investor Jeremy Grantham who has been warning of a 'superbubble' says it is yet to pop despite turbulence in the stock market this year. The co-founder of Boston Asset manager GMO said on Wednesday in a research note that growth in the US stock market from mid-June to mid-August is in line with a rally in a bear market, which usually takes place after a sharp fall. The 83-year-old investor reckons that "the current superbubble features an unprecedentedly dangerous mix of cross-asset overvaluation [...], commodity shock, and Fed hawkishness." At the beginning of the year, Grantham predicted that underlying stocks would collapse by nearly 50%. The S&P 500 fell by 25% from its January peak in June. The index soared in the following two months. Nevertheless, US stocks have now been bearish for the fourth straight session. Well-known strategists, like Mike Wilson for Morgan Stanley, warn investors that the market is yet to bottom. "You had a typical bear market rally the other day and people were saying, 'Oh, it's a new bull market," Grantham said in the research note. "That is nonsense." "First, the bubble forms; second, a setback occurs, as it just did in the first half of this year, when some wrinkle in the economic or political environment causes investors to realize that perfection will, after all, not last forever, and valuations take a half-step back. Then there is what we have just seen—the bear market rally. Fourth and finally, fundamentals deteriorate and the market declines to a low." Grantham is known for having predicted Japan's asset price bubble in the 1980s, the dot-com bubble, and the US housing bubble that came before the 2008 financial crisis. Some of his other bearish warnings have been wrong, or at least premature. He mentioned some other short-term issues, such as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on food and energy crises in Europe, monetary tightening, and China's ongoing Covid woes. He also pinpointed how rising inflation was driving the stock market down in the first half of the year, and elaborated on how falling corporate profit margins would lead to new losses. "My bet is that we're going to have a fairly tough time of it economically and financially before this is washed through the system," Grantham said. "What I don't know is: Does that get out of hand like it did in the '30s, is it pretty well contained as it was in 2000, or is it somewhere in the middle?"       Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-02 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320553
The Fed Plans To Address The Regulation Of Unattended Wallets

Will The FED's Monetary Policy Affect Inflation?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 01.09.2022 14:13
Gold continues to trade under pressure, dropping to $1,700 an ounce. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's keynote speech last week had a sustained impact that continues to push US equities and precious metals lower. His speech was strong and clear, confirming that the Fed is determined to bring down inflation at all costs. According to the Evening Briefing by Bloomberg, Powell has given up on the possibility of a soft landing and is now aiming for something that could potentially cause much more suffering for US corporations and individuals. However, many analysts are convinced that the Fed's hawkish monetary policy will not be enough to achieve its intended goal. Further, the article states that analysts have called this economic scenario the paradoxical name of "growth recession." It differs from a soft landing in that it is defined as a protracted period of meager growth and rising unemployment. The belief that Chairman Powell is trying to reduce inflation with a "growth recession" to avoid an outright recession is similar to cutting out a picture to fit the frame. The simple truth is that a recession is most likely inevitable, and the question is how deep it will be and how much pain it will cause corporations and Americans in 2023. Achieving an inflation target of 2% when the latest data relative to PCE is above 6% is a pipe dream without an increase in interest rates or a gradual increase in rates with the understanding that this will be a multi-year process of fighting inflation. A historical perspective on how various Federal Reserve Chairmans have faced the challenge of bringing inflation to a manageable target shows that this has never been accomplished without raising interest rates to meet the inflation target.         Relevance up to 11:00 2022-09-02 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/320561
With High Inflation, Why Isn't Gold Rising?

With High Inflation, Why Isn't Gold Rising?

Jing Ren Jing Ren 05.09.2022 23:56
The sales pitch for gold is that it's a hedge against inflation, because it doesn't lose its value. It is a real commodity, unlike fiat currency. Yet, as inflation has skyrocketed around the globe this year, the price of gold has not. In fact, after peaking out in March, it has since trended lower. What gives? Prices are relative One of the things to keep in mind, first, is that gold is priced in dollars. So, sure, there has been inflation in many other currencies (with the notable exception of the yen, which is a whole different story). But the dollar has gotten relatively stronger, despite inflation. Partially, because inflation in other currencies has been even bigger. Take the EURUSD, for example, which popped down to the 0.9900 handle, the lowest in over 20 years. Since the start of this year, the Euro has depreciated over 13% against the dollar, well above the 8.9% annual inflation that was last recorded. In fact, the annual depreciation of the Euro has been almost 17%. That's almost 8% of net benefit for anyone who kept dollars over the last year, despite the highest inflation in the shared currency. Why does this matter? It means that Europeans (and Chinese, Indians, Turks, etc) don't need to buy gold to hedge against inflation in their own economies. Holding dollars was a much better investment than keeping money in the bank. So, what's happening to the price of gold really depends on what's going on with the dollar. But the dollar is worth 8.5% less than it was one year ago. Wouldn't buying gold be an even better option? If we were looking in the past, sure. But when investors decide what to invest in, they are looking to the future. What's the best asset to have in their portfolio going forward, while the inflation readings that we have are for the last year. It's all about expectations One of the reasons that the price of gold rolled around in March is because of increased geopolitical tensions. But the other that has been more long lasting is that's when the Fed started hiking rates. Sure, it was expected that inflation would rise for a while, as it takes some time for monetary policy to take effect. But, eventually, the Fed is going to get inflation under control. Meaning that inflation is expected to go down. More to the point, interest rates are expected to keep rising. People who invest in dollar-denominated fixed income (treasuries, bonds, other securities) would see increasing yields. What that means is that even though inflation is high, in fact, because it's high, there is an expectation of increasing returns for those who hold dollars. Meanwhile, gold doesn't pay dividends or interest. What about the hedge, then? In other words, as inflation rises, the more likely the Fed will be to raise rates and drive down that inflation. That makes the dollar get stronger, so in comparison the price of gold goes down. Gold is a hedge against inflation before it rises. But once there is high inflation, the picture turns around. Assuming the Fed does manage to control inflation. Basically, once inflation is high, it's too late to "hedge" against inflation that already happened.
The AUD/USD Lost After RBA Governor Remarks, The End Of An Era For The UK

The AUD/USD Lost After RBA Governor Remarks, The End Of An Era For The UK

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 09.09.2022 09:11
Summary:  U.S. Treasury yields rose 6-7bps after the ECB hiked 75bps and Fed Chari Powell’s speech. U.S. equity markets were quiet and managed to finish the session moderately higher. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe said interest rates were not on a “pre-set path” as the economic outlook was uncertain. Crude oil bounced by 1%. In Japan, a meeting between the MOF, BoJ, and FSA sent signals that FX intervention remains on the cards. The European Union is holding an emergency meeting to discuss measures to tackle the energy crisis in Europe and China is scheduled to release CPI and PPI today. What is happening in markets?   Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I)  U.S. stock markets closed higher in a choppy session, S&P 500 +0.7%, Nasdaq 100 +0.5%.  Trading was quiet after the well-anticipated ECB 75bp hike and Powell’s now consistent hawkish script.  The 6-7bp rise in bond yield did not move stocks.  VIX edged down further to 23.6. On the corporate front, T-Mobile (TMUS:xnas) announced a buyback program authorization for 7.5% of the company’s market cap and expected to complete the buyback by Sep 2023. U.S. treasuries (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) Following a 75bp hike by the ECB and Fed Chair Powell sticking to his hawkish stance in a speech yesterday, U.S. treasury yield jumped 6 to 7 bps across the curve.  Money market rates are pricing in a 85% chance of a 75bp hike on September 22.  Chicago Fed President Evans said the Fed “could very well do 75 in September” but his mind “is not made up” yet. The Treasury Department announced the size of next week’s 3/10/30-year auction at a total size of USD91 billon.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index underperformed its major Asian peers which advanced more than 1% across the board to continue its multi-session decline since the beginning of September and finished the day 1% lower.  The weakness in Tencent (00700.xhkg), -3.1%, Chinese developers, and energy stocks dragged down the benchmark index in Hong Kong.  According to filings to the stock exchange, about USD7.6 billion worth, or 2% of the market cap, of Tencent shares have been transferred to CCASS, the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong’s clearing and settlement system.  Prosus, Tencent’s largest shareholder holding 27.99% of shares outstanding, confirmed that it has transferred 192 million shares of Tencent to CCASS and is selling Tencent shares.  In June, Prosus (PRX:xams) announced that the company was going to offload its stake in Tencent to raise cash to buy back its own shares and Naspers’ (NPN:xjse) shares (Prosus’ parent) at a discount to NAV. The Chinese developer space was once again under selling pressure.  CIFI (00884:xhkg) tumbled 13.6% following credit agency S&P downgraded the long-term rating of the company’s senior unsecured debts by 1 notch to BB- from BB. Country Garden (02007:xhkg) plunged by 6.8%.  Energy stocks declined on sharp fall in crude oil price, CNOOC (00883:xhkg) -3.6%, PetroChina (00857:xhkg) -1.9%.  The Chinese automaker space was sold, Great Wall Motor (02333:xhkg) -4.7%, Geely (00175:xhkg) -3.1%, BYD (01211:xhkg) -3.0%, Li Auto (02015:xhkg) -3.0%, XPeng (09868:xhkg) -2.6%. After the Hong Kong market close, Bilibili (09626:xhkg/BILI:xnas) reported a larger than expected loss in 2Q2022 on the deterioration of gross and operating margins.  The company’s ADR plunged 15%.     USDJPY paid little heed to Japan’s three-party meeting USDJPY stuck close to 144-levels on Thursday despite stronger signs of concern from the Japanese authorities. The meeting between Japan’s MOF, central bank and FSA ended with some strong verbal signals that direct intervention remains on the cards, but even if that was to happen, it will only increase the volatility in the yen and cannot possibly reverse the move as long as the monetary policies of the US and Japan continue to diverge. EURUSD gained some bids in early Asian morning to rise to 1.002, but the move remains fragile especially with the emergency meeting scheduled for today. GBPUSD reversed the overnight weakness to rise to 1.1540 with dollar losing some momentum in early Asian trading hours.  Crude oil prices (CLU2 & LCOV2)  A slight recovery was seen in crude oil prices overnight despite the hawkish Fed rhetoric and a further surge in the dollar. Supply side dynamics remained in focus, with the EIA saying that crude inventories rose by 8.85 million barrels last week, while supplies dropped in the largest storage hub of Cushing. Gasoline inventories also gained, but there was no change to oil production. Putin warned that Russia will not supply energy to any nation that backs a US-led price cap on its crude oil sales. However, with WTI futures now priced at ~$83/barrel and Brent futures below $90, eyes are again on OPEC+ which hinted earlier this week the intention was to keep crude oil prices around the $100-mark. Demand concerns have picked up since the OPEC meeting due to widening China lockdowns and more aggressive central bank rate hikes.   Copper (HGc1) Copper is showing signs of stabilizing despite demand concerns from China as Covid restrictions continue to be tightened. Copper rose above $3.50 per pound overnight, as supply concerns remain top-of-mind with mining companies continued to struggle to meet their production targets with top producer Chile has seen its exports slump to a 19-month low due to water restrictions and lower ore quality - while demand from China, surprisingly is showing signs of strengthening as infrastructure push ramps up. Having found support last week at $3.36/lb, after retracing 61.8% retracement of the July to August rally, copper is currently staring at resistance in the $3.54 area where recent lows and the 55-day moving average merges. For a real upside and trend reversal to occur the price needs to break above $3.78/lb while a break below $3.36/lb could see the metal take aim at $3/lb.  What to consider? The Queen of England has passed away and Charles has taken the throne  It’s the end of an era for the UK with the passing of Queen Elizabeth, age 96. Some of the Queen’s key moments since reigning from the 1980s to today include: in 1986 Elizabeth became the first monarch to visit China. It was an important piece of Britain’s diplomatic effort as it prepared to return Hong Kong to Chinese control. In 2011, The Queen became the first British monarch to set food in Ireland in 100 years, with the trip being widely praised as a historic moment of reconciliation. In 2012 the Queen celebrated 60 years on the throne and in 2022 Elizabeth became the first and only British monarch to reach 70 years on the throne. Politicians from the Commonwealth and across the world paid tribute to the Queen. UK Parliament will pay tribute to Queen Elizabeth on Friday and Saturday. Australian Parliament will not sit next week.   ECB’s 75bps rate hike As was generally expected, the European Central Bank went ahead with a 75bps rate hike on Thursday, taking the deposit rate to 0.75%. President Lagarde said risks to inflation are on the upside and growth are on the downside, but did not rule out further tightening. The ECB raised projections for inflation (5.5% in 2023 now vs 3.5% earlier), lowered growth for 2023 (0.9% vs 2.1%), and 2024 (1.9% vs 2.1%) while raising growth for 2022 by a notch. Lagarde said that 75 bps was not the norm, but “moves will not necessarily get smaller” as policy was dependent on data and on a meeting by meeting basis, echoing Lane’s comments from last week. ECB’s Lane was however noted to be more hawkish yesterday than what his previous comments suggested. This keeps the door for another 75bps rate hike still open.  Fed Chair Powell stays in the chorus Fed Chair Jerome Powell stuck to the tune that the Federal Reserve members have been singing, suggesting a 75bps rate hike at the September meeting as inflation reins. He noted that the labor market is “very, very strong” and wages are elevated, while also signaling that growth will likely fall below trend. On inflation expectations, a key concern for Fed officials, the Fed chair said that today they are well anchored over the long-term, but the clock is ticking and the Fed has more concerns that the public will incorporate higher inflation expectations in the short-term. Fed’s Evans also hinted at a 75bps rate hike for September. With the chorus on inflation getting louder and market pricing for September being very close to a 75bps rate hike, a softer headline inflation print next week likely has the potential to usher in a relief rally. If, however, inflation remains high, we could see another leg down in equities.   Australia’s trade surplus halves as coal and iron ore exports fall from record highs. What next? Australia’s trade surplus almost halved in July, plunging from A$17.1b to an A$8.7b surplus, when the market expected the surplus balance to fall to just A$14.5b. It comes as exports of coal and iron ore fell from their record highs, dragging down total exports by 10%. Coal export earnings fell 17% with the northern hemisphere in peak summer, while iron ore export earnings fell 15% tarnished by China’s slowdown. Australian imports (covering outbound tourists) rose 5% with Aussies escaping the record cold winter to enjoy the European sun. The market responded to the drop in exports, with the Coal futures price falling to a 3-day low, losing 1.7%, taking the two-day loss to 7%, which pulls the price away from its record. For investors it’s a timely reminder, energy commodity prices are seasonally impacted, and could remain volatile before picking up later this year when we think peak buying is expected. Australian bonds and equities price in the RBA will be less aggressive, so it’s risk-on again RBA Governor Phillip Lowe sees a slower pace of rate hikes while conceding a sharp slowdown in global growth will make it hard to avoid a soft landing. The AUDUSD lost 0.4% after his remarks. While short-term rates as measured by the 3-year Australian bond yield fell 0.17% - supporting the risk assets rally. As such, the Australian Technology Sector surged to its highest level in a week. But sophisticated Australian investors seem skeptical that the RBA will slow the pace of hikes. Australian interest rate futures suggest rates could peak at 3.6% by mid-next year. We think the market would also be especially rate rises will slow as Australia’s Resources Minster was tapped for the second time to restrict Australian energy exports, as the nation is tipped to run out of energy in 2023. EU proposes five measures to curb gas demand and prices Ahead of Friday’s emergency energy meeting, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed five radical steps to curb costs and demand: 1) Smart savings of electricity by mandatory targets to reduce peak hour demand for electricity; 2) Cap on revenues of companies producing electricity with from low-cost sources such as wind and solar with profits being re-channeled to vulnerable people and companies; 3) Solidarity contribution from fossil fuel companies; 4) Liquidity support for energy utility companies in order for them to cope with elevated market volatility; 5) Cap on Russian gas revenues on the remaining 9% Russia supplies to Europe, down from a pre-war level around 40%. China’s PPI is expected to have risen as CPI remained stable in August PPI is expected to fall sharply to 3.2% (Bloomberg consensus) in August from 4.2% in July.  Base effect and a decline in coal prices in August could be factors contributing to the deceleration in producer price inflation.  CPI, however, is expected to edge up to 2.8% in August from 2.7% in July.  Analysts suggest that favourable base effect was offset by vegetable price increases amidst the heatwave. Bilibili reported below expectation earnings on margin compression   Bilibili (09626:xhkg/BILI:xnas) reported a worse than expected adjusted loss per share of RMB4.98 (Bloomberg consensus: loss per share RMB4.37, 2Q2021: loss per share RMB2.23). Revenue came in at RMB4.91 billion, largely in line with analyst estimates. The larger-than-expected loss came from disappointing margins.  Gross margin contracted to 15.3% from 16.4% in 1Q2022 and 22.4% in 2Q2021 due to the weak performance of the mobile game business (segment revenue -15% YoY).  Operating margin deteriorated to -39.4% in 2Q2022 from -33.9% in 1Q2022 and -20.9% in 2Q2021 which are attributable to higher general and administrative expenses +44% YoY) as well as research and development expenses +68% YoY).   The company’s revenue guidance of RMB5.6bn-5.8bn for 3Q was below market expectations.  A lender appointed receivers to siege Evergrande’s Hong Kong headquarters premises The Financial Times said that a lender had appointed receivers to siege the headquarters building of China Evergrande (03333:xhkg, suspended) and looked to force a sale of the premises.  The distressed developer’s Hong Kong headquarter has been pledged to secure a loan from a syndicate of lenders led by China Citic Bank International.  Evergrande has previously been served a winding-up petition and is scheduled to have a hearing on the petition at the High Court on 28 Nov 2022. Separately, the Wall Street Journal reports that a consortium of Chinese state-owned banks and private enterprises agreed to pay USD1.05 billion in a court-arranged auction for Evergrande’s 14.6% in Shengjing Bank, a regional bank based in Shenyang, Liaoning province. For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.     Source: APAC Daily Digest: What is happening in markets and what to consider next – September 9, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Forecasts For Q4: The Power And Gas Crisis Will Reach Its Peak

The United Kingdom's Anti­-inflation Plan, The ECB Doesn't Expect A Recession In The Eurozone

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 09.09.2022 09:19
Summary:  The USD weakened sharply overnight, led by a tumbling USDJPY on comments from Bank of Japan governor Kuroda after he met with Prime Minister Kishida. Risk sentiment was buoyant yesterday and overnight on the weaker US dollar and after the ECB hiked by 75 basis points as most expected, the most in the central bank’s history. EURUSD has backed up well above parity again ahead of an EU Summit that will attempt to outline a common approach to soaring power/gas prices amidst limited supplies ahead of winter.   What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities continued to rally yesterday with S&P 500 futures pushing above the 4,000 level to close at 4,005, and even more impressively momentum is extending this morning in early European trading hours. The rally still seems to be mostly technically driven, but there was some support for US equities in yesterday’s initial jobless claims data showing little negative pressures in the US labour market. After the US market close, DocuSign shares rose 17% as the technology company delivered a strong result and raised its outlook breathing some fresh optimism into the technology sector. The next big event for US equities is the US August CPI report on Tuesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index soared 2.6% today, snapping a six-day losing streak, following August inflation data in China surprised on the downside and raised hope for more monetary easing to come from the Chinese policymakers. Mega-cap internet stocks strongly, Meituan (03690:xhkg) +5.5%, Netease (0999:xhkg) +4.8%, Baidu (09888:xhkg)+3.6%, Alibaba (09988:xhkg) +3.1%, Tencent (00700:xhkg) +1.7%. One notable underperformance in the internet space was Bilibli (09626:xhkg/BILI:xnas) which plunged nearly 17% after reporting a larger than expected loss in 2Q2022 on the deterioration of gross and operating margins. Ahead of the mid-autumn festival, catering stocks gains, Jiumaojiu (09922:xhkg) +6.7%, Haidilao (06862:xhkg) +2.6%. Chinese property names rallied, led by Country Garden (02007:xhkg) which jumped 14%. CSI 300 climbed 1.3%, led by property names, financials and dental services.  USD broadly weaker after ECB meeting and USDJPY correction overnight Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda commented on the undesirability of sharp JPY moves in comments overnight after meeting with PM Kishida. This took USDJPY back below 143.00 two days after it nearly touched 145 in its latest surge higher. The threat of intervention may not hold the JPY higher for long if global yields continue higher again. Elsewhere, the USD was sharply lower despite a solid bounce-back in US treasury yields and EURUSD traded well north of parity again after an initially choppy reception of the expected 75-basis point hike from the ECB and President Lagarde’s press conference. The action took EURUSD back to the cusp of important resistance in the 1.0100 area, which has been the resistance of note for more some three weeks. The move was supported by surging European short yields, although the energy/power situation will remain the focus for the euro. Crude oil (CLV2 & LCOX2) The oil price weakness seen this week following the break below $91.5 and $85 in Brent and WTI may still end up being a temporary development with the dollar weakness seen overnight, especially against the yen and euro, adding a bid back into the market. Dr. Copper meanwhile is recovering as demand from China show signs of improving. Potentially a signal to the energy market of not getting too carried away by a temporary lockdown related slowdown in Chinese demand. However, with US implied gasoline demand falling below 2020 levels last week, a potential recovery above the mentioned level is likely to be muted. Focus on Putin and his threat to cut supply to nations backing the US-led price cap on crude sales and OPEC+ which may intervene should price weakness persist. Copper (COPPERUSDEC22) Copper trades higher with the futures market signaling increased tightness, primarily due to a pickup in Chinese demand and imports, which despite lockdowns has seen the infrastructure push ramping up. In addition, a lower-than-expected August CPI and PPI may give the PBoC more room to ease conditions. Exchange monitored inventory levels has dropped to an 8-month low at a time where mining companies struggle to meet their production targets with top producer Chile seeing its exports slump to a 19-month low due to water restrictions and lower ore quality. Speculators have increased short positions in recent weeks as a hedge against recession and China weakness, and they are now increasingly exposed. Support at $3.54 and for a real upside and trend reversal to occur the price needs to break above $3.78/lb. Bitcoin This morning Bitcoin rose the most in more than a month, surpassing the psychological $20k level and now trading at around $20.5k. This is despite a report published by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy yesterday, stating that cryptocurrencies make a significant contribution to energy usage and greenhouse gas emissions in the US, and that they recommend monitoring and potential regulation. It could have a significant impact on cryptocurrencies using the proof-of-work consensus mechanism such as Bitcoin. US Treasuries (TLT, IEF) US Treasury yields bounced back toward the top of the range after the previous day’s decline, keeping the attention on the cycle highs for the 10-year yield near 3.50%. The treasury sell-off was sparked around the time of Fed Chair Powell firm comments on fighting inflation, which sent 2-year treasury yields some 8 basis points higher. The latest weekly jobless claims figures was out around the same time and showed the lowest level of claims since late May. What is going on? The ECB hiked interest rates by 75 basis points This was a unanimous decision of the ECB governing council. This is a major signal sent to the market. The move was aimed to catch up with the neutral rate (though the ECB acknowledges they don’t know where the neutral rate is). The ECB also revised upward its inflation forecasts sharply (from 6.8 % to 8.1 % this year). Growth forecasts were also revised. But the ECB still doesn't expect a recession in the eurozone (GDP growth expected at 0.9 % versus prior 2.1 % this year). During the press conference, ECB president Christine Lagarde opened the door to further interest hikes. This is no surprise. She committed to keep hiking over 2, 3 or 4 meetings (including today’s). This implies further hikes until October, December or February, followed by a pause. Forward guidance is not dead, finally. Expect a 50 basis point hike in October, in our view. The German 2-year Schatz yield rose over 20 basis points to yesterday to close at new cycle high of 1.33%. The United Kingdom announces a massive anti­-inflation plan Yesterday, the new prime minister Liz Truss announced a major plan to fight the high cost of living related to energy prices. There are five major measures: 1) capping household bills at £2500 per month. 2) a new £40bn liquidity scheme with the Bank of England for energy firms who need it. 3) no further windfall tax (a tax levied on an unforeseen or unexpectedly large profit). 4) speeding up the deployment of clean energy but at the same time granting more oil and gas licenses for North Sea. and 5) commitment to net zero 2050. If this is successful, it means that the peak in UK inflation will certainly be lower (by 4-5 %). So far, the government believes that the peak could be between 13 and 18 %. This is a broad range. But it shows the level of uncertainty about the short-term economic outlook. Finally, Truss refused to evaluate the total cost of the new plan. Several experts believe it could be close to £150bn, over 6% of UK GDP. DocuSign shares up 17% in extended trading Q2 revenue was much better than expected but confirmed its fiscal year outlook on revenue which was better than the underlying consensus which was clearly below analyst estimates. The company sounded optimistic on the billing outlook, which is the key indicator for future growth, and as a result traders pushed shares 17% higher in extended trading. Apple warned by US government against using Chinese chips Congressional Republicans including Senator Marco Rubio of the Senate intelligence committee and Michael McCaul of the House foreign affairs committee expressed alarm at reports that Apple cited Yangtze Memory Technologies as one of its suppliers of flash memory chips used for phone storage.  “Apple is playing with fire”, said Senator Rubio, threatening scrutiny of the company. Apple said it would not sell iPhones using the chips outside China. What are we watching next? EU Summit today on emergency intervention in power markets and possibly to cap imported Russian gas prices The EU may be able to cap electricity prices, but this could mean a shortage of output relative to demand, i.e., forcing rationing over the winter period when demand surges. Russian leader Putin has called any plan to cap prices “another stupidity”. Swedish election this weekend Swedes go to the polls on Sunday, with the right populist Sweden Democrats expected to become the second-largest political party. In the past, the right-leaning main parties have been unwilling to consider alliances with the Sweden Democrats, as their positions were seen as too extreme, but this has made for very fragile left-coalitions in recent years because of the lack of a sufficient plurality in Parliament. Earnings to watch Today’s key earnings release is Kroger which is a large US supermarket chain with a strong competitive position in the current inflationary environment. Analysts are expecting revenue growth of 8.6% y/y in FY23 Q2 (ending 31 July) and lower operating margin expected due to rising input costs. Today: Kroger Earnings releases next week: Monday: Oracle Tuesday: DiDi Global Wednesday: Inditex Thursday: Polestar Automotive, Adobe Economic calendar highlights for today (times GMT) 0930 – ECB President Lagarde to speak 1230 – Canada Aug. Net Change in Employment / Unemployment Rate 1600 – US Fed’s Waller (Voter) to speak 1600 – US Fed’s George (Voter) to speak Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher         Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-sep-9-2022-09092022
The UK Markets Remain Volatile, Possible Contraction Of The Eurozone Economy

British Pound (GBP) And UK Economy: Next Week Is Full Of Vital Releases - Inflation, GDP And Labour Market Data

ING Economics ING Economics 09.09.2022 15:38
Next week's US inflation numbers will need to be quite surprising for the Fed to deviate from a 75bp hike at its September meeting. The Bank of England's scheduled meeting has been postponed, and instead the focus will be on several pieces of key UK data In this article US: Core inflation likely to rise to 6.1% UK: Bank of England to stick to 50bp rate hike despite energy package Source: Shutterstock Article updated on 9 September to reflect the postponement of the Bank of England's scheduled meeting US: Core inflation likely to rise to 6.1% We have the last full week of economic data ahead of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but it will take some surprising numbers to make the Fed deviate from a third consecutive 75bp rate hike. After all, the economy is posting decent growth, creating jobs in significant numbers, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is arguing that “we need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing and we have to keep at it until the job is done”. The data includes CPI, which should show headline inflation being depressed by lower gasoline prices, but core inflation is likely to rise to 6.1% from 5.9%. Retail sales should post flat growth, but remember this is a nominal figure and those falling gasoline prices will be a major drag. Real consumption is likely to be up in the third quarter. We also expect manufacturing output to grow further. The deteriorating global outlook and weakening domestic housing market combined with the cumulative impact of policy tightening and the strong dollar means we think the Fed will moderate its hiking to 50bp in November and 25bp in December. Weaker wage pressure and more limited month-on-month increases in CPI thanks to lower import and other input costs would certainly help this argument. UK: Bank of England to stick to 50bp rate hike despite energy package The United Kingdom will observe a period of mourning following Queen Elizabeth II’s death on Thursday, and Parliament will be adjourned during this time. The Bank of England's scheduled meeting has also now been postponed to the following week, but the ONS has confirmed that several pieces of important data will still be released. Here's what we expect: July GDP (Monday): Expect a large bounce-back from June, where the addition of an extra bank holiday artificially distorted the monthly GDP numbers. Depending on the arrangements during the period of mourning, the addition of an extra bank holiday in September is possible, and this would factor into the GDP numbers for the current month. We’ll therefore have to wait until the fourth quarter to get a clearer idea of how the economy is faring in GDP terms, and we suspect there’s still a risk of a negative growth figure. However, the announcement of an energy price guarantee by the government considerably reduces the risk of a deep downturn, and potentially also a technical recession. Jobs (Tuesday): Hiring demand is falling, though recent data and surveys have suggested that the worker shortages plaguing the jobs market have only improved slightly over recent months. The announcement of an energy price cap for businesses should help limit what otherwise could have been a more immediate rise in redundancies as firms’ costs increased. We expect the unemployment rate to remain stable next week, but we’ll also be watching closely for signs of a more pronounced return of inactive workers to the jobs market. Inflation (Wednesday): A 6% fall in petrol/diesel prices through August will drag headline inflation slightly lower. That doesn’t mean we’re past the peak, though the introduction of the energy price cap means inflation is less likely to materially surpass 11% in the autumn. Without the cap, we’d forecast inflation would go to 16% or above in January. This is a double-edged sword for the BoE. On one hand, the reduced the peak in headline inflation should ease concerns about consumer inflation expectations becoming even less anchored. That points to another 50bp rate hike when the BoE meets later in September, despite the Fed and ECB going more aggressively. The BoE has shown in past meetings that it isn’t pressured to follow those other central banks, albeit the hawks will be worried about the recent slide in sterling. They will also argue that the government’s action increases the risk of inflation staying elevated in the medium-term, given the reduced risk of recession, Some members are therefore likely to vote for a 75bp hike at the next meeting. But ultimately with a lot already priced into markets for the BoE, policymakers will be wary about adding fuel to the fire. As we saw with the ECB on Thursday, the decision to go with a 75bp hike saw markets price that as the default move at the next meeting. Key events in developed markets next week Source: Refinitiv, ING This article is part of Our view on next week’s key events View 3 articles   TagsUS Bank of England   Read this article on ING Economics   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more    
Economy: Poland - Manufacturing PMI Increased To 43

Czech Republic's Energy Prices, Russia's Rate And Inflation In Poland

ING Economics ING Economics 11.09.2022 09:34
We are anticipating a 25-50bp cut at the Central Bank of Russia meeting next Friday, as there's still growing inflationary pressure led by uncertainties around fiscal policies and the recovery in lending activities. For the Czech Republic, we are expecting the lowest month-on-month inflation rate this year at 0.6%, due to a drop in fuel and food prices In this article Russia: Rate cut cycle to continue Poland: exports deteriorate and inflationary pressure continues Czech Republic: Energy prices remain the main uncertainty for the CPI Source:Shutterstock Russia: Rate cut cycle to continue The current inflation trends seem to be tracing the lower border of the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR's) forecast range for 2022 (12.0-15.0%) and 2023 (5.0-7.0%). This inflation trajectory, according to the CBR’s recent medium-term forecast, corresponds to an average key rate of 7.4% for August-December 2022 and 6.5% for 2023. Following this guidance, the key rate, currently at 8.0%, could be cut by 100bp until year-end, and by another 100bp next year. Our base case for the 16 September meeting is a restrained 25-50bp cut, reflecting growing seasonally-adjusted inflationary pressures, persistent elevated inflationary expectations by households, some recovery in lending activity, and ongoing uncertainties surrounding future fiscal policy (prospects of stimulus). At the same time, a more decisive 75-100bp cut, though less likely, is also not excluded – signalling the monetary authority's confidence in achieving longer-term inflationary targets. Poland: exports deteriorate and inflationary pressure continues Current account balance: We project that the current account deficit widened to some €2.6bn in July as the trade deficit increased towards €1.6bn amid easing exports and robust imports boosted by high prices of energy commodities. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the external imbalance increased above 4% of GDP and is expected to stabilise around 5% of GDP later this year as the outlook for European manufacturing and hence Polish exports deteriorate. CPI: The August flash estimate of 16.1% year-on-year is expected to be confirmed. Inflationary pressures continue and price growth is broad-based. Monthly increases in food and energy prices turned out higher than expected. What is more, core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, accelerated towards 10%YoY from 9.3%YoY in July. In the wake of the new 2022 CPI inflation high, the National Bank of Poland will continue its rate hikes in the short term. Czech Republic: Energy prices remain the main uncertainty for the CPI July inflation surprised with the lowest energy price rise this year despite the biggest price hike for households being announced. Further energy price rises are announced for August, however, the ratio of fix-float contracts and the approach of the CZSO remains unclear. Even so, we believe that energy price hikes will be reflected to some extent sooner or later. On the other hand, the massive 10% month-on-month drop in fuel prices, as well as the first food price decline this year indicated by surveys, are working to the downside. Overall, we expect the lowest month-on-month inflation rate this year at 0.6% from 1.3% last year, which should keep the annual rate steady at 17.5% YoY. However, this does not mean we have peaked. On the contrary, the effect of the drop in fuel is rather a one-off effect and energy prices should pass through to CPI in the coming months. The risk for this month is that energy prices from July will be reflected in August's number and inflation will surprise with a significant jump upwards. Key events in EMEA next week Source: Refinitiv, ING TagsRussia central bank Poland inflation Czech Repulbic   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The Euro (EUR) Is In A Stable Channel And The Pound (GBP) Has Little Chance Of Falling

Can Prices Of The EUR/USD And The GBP/USD Pairs Stay Steady?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 13.09.2022 10:10
The only thing investors are worried about right now is the extent of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve's rate hikes. That was the reason for the noticeable growth of the euro, which, due to its scale, pulled up other currencies as well—firstly, the pound. The reason for this was the words of ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, who almost directly stated that the refinancing rate will be raised again by 75 basis points at the next board meeting. The reason for such aggressive actions of the European Central Bank is the growing inflation. Most likely, the dollar will continue to lose its positions today. The reason for this will be inflation. According to forecasts, US inflation should slow down from 8.5% to 8.1%. That is, inflation is slowing down for the second month in a row, which gives the Fed a reason to reduce the rate of interest rate growth. So there may be a situation where interest rates are rising quite strongly in Europe but much slower in the United States, if the American regulator does not stop this process at all. Just a few months ago, the situation was diametrically opposite, and it was the Fed that was actively raising the rate, and the ECB was only considering the possibility of tightening monetary policy. And this led to a serious rise in the dollar. Now it is quite possible to talk about a U-turn. Inflation (United States): The EURUSD currency pair locally jumped to 1.0200 during an intense upward movement. This move resulted in overheating of long positions in the short term, resulting in a technical pullback in the market. A stable holding of the price above 1.0150 allows the subsequent growth of the euro with a breakout of 1.0200. The GBPUSD currency pair has a similar dynamics, where the quote has firmly fixed above the level of 1.1650. With the upward mood on the market, a subsequent increase in the value of the pound sterling in the direction of 1.1800 is not excluded, where stagnation/pullback is already possible.   Relevance up to 20:00 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321509
A Gloomy Outlook For The Global Economy, Do We Have To Prepare For The Worst?

Podcast: Discussion On Market Sentiment, Silver And Inflation And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 13.09.2022 10:29
Summary:  Today we discuss the extension of momentum in equities as the market is clearly positioning itself for a weaker than expected US August inflation figure later today. The risk-on sentiment is seen across many markets including the USD which continues to weaken against the EUR which might have got some tailwinds lately from the war success in Ukraine. We also talk about Silver, but more importantly the ongoing European energy crisis that has eased a bit lately with lower energy prices across the board. Finally, we go through stocks to watch with a focus on Ocado's horrible revenue miss and Inditex's earnings tomorrow, ending with a quick rundown of today's macro calendar. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Listen to today’s podcast - slides are found via the link. Follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app: Apple  Spotify PodBean Sticher If you are not able to find the podcast on your favourite podcast app when searching for Saxo Market Call, please drop us an email at marketcall@saxobank.com and we'll look into it.   Questions and comments, please! We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.     Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/podcast/podcast-sep-13-2022-13092022
Podcast: US Dollar (USD) Keeps Rising | A look At The 10-year US Treasury

As A Result Of The Fight Against Inflation, The Appetite For Risk Has Decreased

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.09.2022 11:59
Euro and pound collapsed as inflationary pressure in the US jumped again. Risk appetite noticeably fell because the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its aggressive increase of interest rates in order to curb inflation. This may occur as early as next week, during the September meeting of the central bank. In fact, in the most recent speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, another 75 basis point rate hike is said to be possible, following the increases in June and July. He said the decision will depend on the data collected. Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans, who in the past has been dovish, also noted that a soft landing could be achieved for the economy without triggering a recession. He reasoned that unemployment is now 3.7%, so the central bank will be able to meet the targets and keep it at about 4.5% by the time the fight against high inflation is finished. He added that the danger of excessive tightening of policy will increase only when rates reach 3.5%. Of course, rising inflation is not only a concern for the Federal Reserve, but also for the Biden administration as his Democratic Party moves closer to the midterm congressional elections. High gas and food prices earlier in the year have seriously undermined the president's popularity and the Democrats' prospects for maintaining control of Congress. Talking about the forex market, a collapse was seen in EUR/USD, which forces buyers to cling to 1.0010. Only its breakdown will lead to a rise towards 1.0040 and 1.0090, or to 1.0120. In case of a further decline, sellers will become more active in the market, which will result in a price decrease towards 0.9880 and 0.9810. In terms of GBP/USD, quotes fell below the 15th figure, indicating the sellers'persistence to return to the September lows. Only the return to 1.1560 will prompt a rebound towards 1.1610 and 1.1660, or possibly 1.1720. If pressure continues, the pair will drop below 1.1460 and head towards 1.1405.     Relevance up to 09:00 2022-09-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321656
A Technical Look At The Bitcoin Situation, Bitcoin Jumped Sharply

Litecoin Remained Stable And Bitcoin Continues Downward Trend

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 14.09.2022 13:16
Contrary to many expectations, Bitcoin successfully spent the second part of last week. The asset managed to defend the $18.5k–$19k level and resume its upward movement. The formation of the largest green candle in the last three months gave hope for a strong bullish momentum. Along with Bitcoin, stock indices grew, including the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. The US dollar index corrected after reaching another high, which gave high-risk assets time to rise. Analysts at State Street report that institutional investors remain confident in the prospects and value of cryptocurrencies. Their main focus is on Ethereum before the merger, which is why Bitcoin falls out of the investment agenda. According to Santiment, the local undervaluation of BTC provoked a strong rebound to the $22k level. The publication of CPI and the reaction of the crypto market Most factors indicated a high probability of BTC reaching a local high at $25k. The publication of the dynamics of the consumer price index put a bold dot on market expectations. The indicator decreased from 8.5% to 8.3%, with a forecast of a fall to 8.1%. The rate of decline in the inflation rate was below forecasts. The cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin reacted sharply negatively. As of September 14, of the top 30 cryptocurrencies, only Litecoin managed to maintain stability. The capitalization of the industry fell by 6.6% to $900 billion, and Bitcoin lost 9% in a few hours. As of 08:00 UTC, BTC/USD has consolidated near the $20.2k support level. Stock indices also fell, with the S&P 500 down 4.3% overnight, the biggest drop since June 2020. BTC/USD Technical analysis In technical terms, the cryptocurrency has reached a local support zone in the $19.8k–$20.2k area. Following the results of the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has formed a bearish engulfing pattern, which indicates a continuation of the downward trend. Selling volumes continue to grow, but technical metrics signal a local reversal. The RSI and Stochastics bounced off the 35–45 area and are starting to move flat, which indicates consolidation. Bullish scenario Bitcoin needs to hold above the $20k level in order to maintain the opportunity to resume the upward movement. If the round mark is maintained, the price of BTC will rush to the $20.4k–$20.9k resistance area. Successful passage of this segment and consolidation above $21k opens up prospects for movement to $22k before the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin will most likely be in the consolidation stage in the coming days after the negative news. Bearish scenario The shock state of the market will be replaced by awareness of the difficulties of fighting inflation. Most likely, this will lead to a decrease in investment activity in the cryptocurrency market and a reorientation of investors to USD products. In the shorter term, this will be reflected in the price movement towards the key support area of $19.5k–$19.9k. Given the effect of the ETH update, it can be assumed that this zone will be the final one before the reversal. But in case of aggravation of the bearish movement by additional negative factors, the price will meet support at the final level of $18.5k–$19k. Results Summing up the results of the CPI publication, we can say that the situation with liquidity and tightening of monetary policy will not change in the coming months. Powell stated that the Fed's actions would depend on the fact, which turned out to be undervalued alarming. Inflation is falling, but very slowly, and therefore an increase in the key rate by 75 basis points in September is a settled issue. In the coming weeks, the market will prepare for a rate hike, as well as adapt its investment strategy to the deterioration of the financial environment. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-15 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321668
The UK Markets Remain Volatile, Possible Contraction Of The Eurozone Economy

United Kingdom: Inflation Is Expected To Hit 11% As Energy Price Cap Is Set To Be Applied

ING Economics ING Economics 14.09.2022 13:37
Headline inflation will rise a little further having eased back below 10% in August, and it's likely to stay around 11% into early next year before falling back more dramatically. However, the Bank of England is watching wage growth more closely, as the hawks worry that worker shortages could lead to core inflation staying more persistently above target The introduction of a government cap on household energy prices means that we should now be fairly close to the peak in these headline figures The absence of another upside surprise to UK inflation this month takes a bit of pressure off the Bank of England to move even more aggressively when it meets next week. Headline CPI came in a touch lower than both consensus and last month’s level, at 9.9%, and that’s largely because of a near-7% fall in petrol/diesel prices during August. We expect another 2% decline in next month’s figures. The introduction of a government cap on household energy prices means that we should now be fairly close to the peak in these headline figures. The fact that electricity/gas bills won’t be rising by around 80% in October and a further 30-40% in January means that the peak in CPI should be around 5 percentage points lower. With the government due to cap the average household energy bill at £2500, up from around £2000 now, we expect a peak in the region of 11% in October. That's compared to 16% in January which is what we’d forecasted before the support was announced. UK inflation now set to peak at around 11% after energy price support Source: Macrobond, ING forecasts   We’d expect inflation to stay around there until early next year, before cooling more quickly as energy base effects kick-in. We think it could be more-or-less back to the Bank of England’s 2% target by the end of next year, crazy as that currently seems. But what policymakers are more interested in is core inflation – or to put it more accurately, the more persistent parts of the inflation basket. Here the news is mixed. On a month-on-month price basis, the increases we saw in August do seem fairly broad-based. However, there are signs that ‘core goods’ inflation is easing off, linked perhaps to the rise in retailer inventory levels relative to sales. That’s a function of supply chains beginning to improve, and in some cases commodity prices having fallen, which is coinciding with reduced demand for goods. Higher inventories and lower sales reducing pressure on goods prices Source: Macrobond, ING   However, the Bank is more focused on wage growth, and as we noted yesterday, the worker shortages that have plagued the jobs market for several months now don’t appear to be resolving themselves very quickly. The BoE’s hawks are concerned that this will translate into persistent pressure on wage growth. We aren’t totally convinced this will be enough to swing the pendulum in favour of a 75 basis-point rate hike next week, despite both the ECB and Federal Reserve going down this path. It’s a pretty close call, not least because the hawks will be worried about the recent slide in sterling, and markets are closer to pricing a 75bp move than a 50. But for now, we think another 50bp move next week is the most likely outcome, followed by another such move in November. Read this article on THINK Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
US Stocks: S&P 500 Decreased By 0.21%, Nasdaq Gained 0.25%

Headline Consumer Price Index- Summary Of The US Inflation Report

TeleTrade Comments TeleTrade Comments 15.09.2022 12:52
UOB Group’s Senior Economist Alvin Liew and Rates Strategist Victor Yong review the latest release of US inflation figures. Key Takeaways “US headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation was off from recent highs but still elevated at 8.3% y/y (from 8.5% y/y in Jul), above Bloomberg estimates of 8.1% (but in line with our forecast). On a m/m basis, the headline CPI picked up pace, increasing 0.1% m/m  (versus flat at 0% in Jul) and faster against Bloomberg estimate of a decline by -0.1% m/m.” “A bigger concern was the core CPI inflation (which excludes food and energy) which raced higher sequentially, reflecting unabating underlying momentum for price pressures. On a m/m basis, core inflation rose by a faster 0.6% in Aug (up from 0.3% in Jul, and above Bloomberg estimate of 0.3%). Compared to a year ago, it rose to 6.3% y/y in Aug, from 5.9% in Jul, and above Bloomberg estimate for 6.1%.” “Goods inflation eased further, coming in at -0.8% m/m, 12.1% y/y in Jul (from -0.5% m/m, 12.1% y/y in Jul), but services inflation – a bigger and thus more important component of CPI – continued to increase and the pace re-accelerated, up by 0.7% m/m, 6.8% y/y (from 0.3% m/m, 6.2% y/y in Jul), matching the previous high of Oct 1982 (6.76% y/y). The sustained increase in services inflation in recent months is a clear indication that wage growth is having a meaningful transmission to price pressures.” “While the latest US headline inflation was below the 9.1% recorded in Jun, this reflected mainly the decline in gasoline prices but the cost of living is still materially high as shown by the persistent rise of food and shelter costs and services inflation is getting hotter amidst strengthening demand. We maintain our headline CPI inflation forecast to average 8.5% and our core CPI inflation forecast at 6.5% for 2022. Subsequently, we still expect both headline and core inflation to ease in 2023, but it will likely average higher at 3.0% (from previous forecast of 2.5%). The balance of risk on inflation remains on the upside.”    
US Inflation Report And Its Impact On The Cryptocurrency Market

US Inflation Report And Its Impact On The Cryptocurrency Market

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 15.09.2022 13:03
While the whole world is discussing the Ethereum Merge update, it is important to finally deal with the consequences of slowing down the rate of decline in the inflation rate. CPI reporting had a negative impact on the crypto market and caused a reduction in total capitalization to the level of $998 billion. However, this is only an impulsive reaction of investors to bad news. The consequences of this process in the medium term may be more disastrous. Inflation, the position of the Fed and the crypto market In the summer, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the agency was changing its strategy for raising the key rate. The regulator abandoned the predictive indicator planning model and decided to focus on actual data. The Fed also said that it plans to end the current year with a neutral rate. Powell's statements removed the element of surprise, made Fed policy more transparent and gave investors hope. Markets took the theses of the head of the Fed as a transitional moment to the gradual easing of monetary policy. The peak of such sentiments occurred at the beginning of August, when the inflation rate fell above expectations. A glimmer of hope amid the endless fog of the liquidity crisis provoked other positive rumors. One of the initiators of the positive statements was Arthur Hayes, who believes that as we approach the November Senate elections, the markets will pump up the money supply. The slowdown in the rate of decline in the inflation rate put a bold dot on the likelihood of a change or easing of the Fed's current policy. After the publication of the CPI for August, an increase in the key rate by 75 basis points in September is a settled issue. In addition, the current order of movement of the price of Bitcoin and other financial instruments remains. New Rules for Bitcoin Price Movement Insufficient rates of inflation reduction are forcing the Fed to maintain the current level of influence on world markets. The withdrawal of liquidity and the increase in the key rate to strengthen the USD will continue. Considering this index, DXY remains the main financial instrument for the coming months. Bitcoin continues to maintain a close correlation with stock indices. Considering the macroeconomic situation, high-risk assets remain a single category of low-value investments at this stage. It follows that with active trading of BTC/USD, other cryptocurrencies and stock indices, the rule of mandatory DXY analysis remains. With a high degree of probability, when the US dollar index rises, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies go down or move flat. The publication of CPI reports caused opposite reactions from BTC and DXY. The inverse correlation of the two assets is obvious and should be a key element of active BTC/USD trading. BTC/USD Technical analysis Bitcoin managed to hold on to the $20.1k–$20.2k support area. The cryptocurrency successfully defended the $19.1k line following the results of yesterday's trading day, and moved to the stage of consolidation. In the coming days, we should expect a stabilization movement in the BTC/USD price without significant impulse movements. Technical metrics confirm this scenario. On the daily chart, the RSI index and the stochastic oscillator made a sharp reversal to the side. The MACD indicator has also completed an upward spurt and started moving in a flat direction. The publication of the CPI had a significant negative impact in both the short and medium term. Given the successful upgrade of Ethereum, we can soon expect a decrease in investment activity and a drop in the level of Bitcoin dominance. The main focus of the market will be on the altcoin, which may cause BTC to be undervalued. Demand and scarcity After a short consolidation, Bitcoin may resume its upward movement due to its growing scarcity in the market. Long-term investors continue to actively buy up BTC coins, reducing their volumes in the public domain. In addition, Bitcoin mining difficulty peaked at 32.045 trillion hashes. This means that mining a BTC block has never been so difficult. Accordingly, in the coming weeks, we can expect a local upward movement of Bitcoin to the $24k–$25k area due to its underestimation and growing scarcity. Medium-term prospects for Bitcoin Despite the rising inflation, the situation will begin to improve closer to winter. Most likely, the reason for this will be a significant reduction in liquidity and the aggravation of recession in the US economy. The combination of these factors will force the Fed to resume filling the markets with money, which will positively affect Bitcoin. Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-09-16 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/321796
Economy: Poland - Manufacturing PMI Increased To 43

Poland: Final August CPI Print And Prediction For The Rest Of 2022

ING Economics ING Economics 16.09.2022 13:25
Core inflation in Poland rose again last month due to pressure from the weak zloty, rising wages, and high energy prices   According to the Central Statistical Office of Poland's final estimate, CPI inflation rose to 16.1% year-on-year in August from 15.6% YoY in July, in line with the flash reading. The year-on-year growth in both the CPI and core continue to rise. CPI in year-on-year terms accelerated, as increases in the prices of food (+1.6% month-on-month), energy carriers (+3.8%MoM) and core (+0.8%MoM) overshadowed a significant fall in transport fuel prices (-8.3%MoM). The large increase in food prices is not only due to the jump in sugar prices but also in other categories (meat, bread, dairy). There was also no typical seasonal drop in the total food price (-0.8%MoM average in the last decade). In August, food and beverages grew 1.6%MoM, as discounts for fruit and vegetables were dominated by growth in other categories. The large jump in energy prices was mainly driven by heating fuel (+12%MoM) – making it the largest single contribution to the August CPI increase – and municipal heating. Both increases have come earlier than usual from a seasonal perspective, and show the impact of the energy shock and the shortage of coal for domestic purposes of households. The details of August inflation show price pressures in many categories of goods and services. This is the effect of rising wages, high gas and electricity prices (as shown by jumps in categories such as paper, chemicals, and cosmetics), and the weak zloty. The strong holiday season has pushed up the prices of tourist and catering services, compared to last year. CPI drop in the coming months seems unlikely We are less optimistic than the National Bank of Poland (NBP) about the evolution of inflation in the coming months. It will be difficult to see a decline in the year-on-year CPI before the end of the year. The economy still has to absorb the energy shock over the next few months. We expect price rises in categories that escape regulation (such as fuel, bottled gas etc), but also await new price lists for the turn of 2022-23, which will determine what level inflation will peak at in February 2023. We also note that the annual inflation rate (CPI, %YoY) may fall over the course of 2023, on base effects, among other things, or thanks to large-scale measures to rein in energy prices. However, our models show persistent high core inflation, which is more domestic in nature. We see very high inflation expectations of firms and households, which are triggering strong second-round effects (firms are passing most of the new costs on to retail prices, and this effect will be seen in the coming months because the slowdown in domestic demand is too small). In turn, a significant increase in the minimum wage acts as a wage-price spiral. There may be no more interest rate hikes However, the cycle of interest rate hikes is coming to an end. Recent comments show that the NBP is rather targeting a decline in annual CPI (possibly by the end of 2023) and a 'soft landing' of the economy, while a “de jure” target of CPI at 2.5% YoY is seemingly forgotten. An important factor that reduces the effectiveness of the rate hikes is fiscal expansion. Currently, the total policy mix is only slightly restrictive despite inflation at 16.1% YoY. With such a definition of NBP targets, we can envisage rate cuts in 2023. With that in place, we should face another cycle of rate rises in 2024. The way to fight inflation differs from the approach of other countries, where central banks and governments communicate that what is needed is to cool down the economy, and the labour market, with slower wage growth than the rate of inflation. All of this is to avoid a repeat of the 1970s scenario in the US when it took three cycles of interest rate hikes to fight inflation. The ultimate cost of this fight was much greater than the cost of cooling the economy at the start of a period of high inflation. Read this article on THINK TagsPoland inflation National Bank of Poland Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
The US Has Again Benefited From Military Conflicts In Other Parts Of The World, The Capital From Europe And Other Regions Goes To The US

The Fed Is Ready To Sacrifice Growth And Employment To Bring Inflation Back To Its Target

ING Economics ING Economics 24.09.2022 08:51
US housing numbers will be the main focus next week. The Federal Reserve's aggressive hiking cycle has already sent the market into recession and more pain lies ahead. In the eurozone, we expect higher inflation at 9.6% while unemployment should remain unchanged In this article US: Housing numbers in focus after Fed's 75bp hike Eurozone: Higher inflation and unemployment rate expect to remain at 6.6% Source: Shutterstock US: Housing numbers in focus after Fed's 75bp hike After the Federal Reserve's 75bp rate hike this week and Jerome Powell's commentary that the Fed is prepared to sacrifice growth and jobs to ensure inflation comes back to target, we will be hearing from many more officials over the coming week. Given the strong clustering of near-term forecasts for rates and the economy, the hawkish comments hinting at another 75bp hike in November are likely to come thick and fast. The data calendar is fairly light with housing numbers the main focus. With mortgage rates now firmly above 6%, more pain is coming in the housing market where a recession is already underway. Eurozone: Higher inflation and unemployment rate expect to remain at 6.6% Inflation figures will be the main focus in the eurozone. Expect higher prices partly due to Germany's decision to end cheap public transport tickets as of 31 August. The key will be to see how much other categories have continued to rise. Separately, unemployment data is out on Friday. We expect the labour market to have remained very tight with the unemployment rate stable at a historic low of 6.6% despite business hiring expectations sliding in recent months. Key events in developed markets next week Source: Refinitiv, ING This article is part of Our view on next week’s key events   View 3 articles TagsFederal Reseve Eurozone   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Market Focus Will Likely Be On Putin’s Warnings To The West, Nike (NKE) Reported Slightly Better Revenues And More

Market Focus Will Likely Be On Putin’s Warnings To The West, Nike (NKE) Reported Slightly Better Revenues And More

Saxo Bank Saxo Bank 30.09.2022 08:37
Summary:  Fresh lows return in US equities with more hawkish Fed comments and fear of earnings downgrades picking up as the Q3 earnings season draws closer. Cable extended its rally despite UK PM’s commitment to fiscal plan and weakening BOE hike expectations, while the EUR gained strength on the back of hot German CPI and uptick in ECB rate hike expectations. Talks of OPEC+ production cuts are gaining momentum, and focus today will be on China PMIs. Also watch for Eurozone CPI, US PCE data as well as Putin’s speech in the day ahead. What is happening in markets? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) fall to 22-month lows US stocks sank to their lowest levels since November 2020 after another round of Fed speakers continued with hawkish remarks, while oil maintained gains on expectations of OPEC+ cuts. Nasdaq 100 was down almost 4% at one point, but trimmed the losses before closing 2.9% lower, while the broader S&P500 met a similar fate nearing 3,600 before ending 2.1% down. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 dropped, with Utilities falling the most and followed by Consumer Discretionary. Retail favorites Tesla (TSLA) and Apple  (AAPL)  led the declines falling 6.8% and 4.9% while chip makers followed with AMD (AMD) down 6.2% with PC demand falling away. On the upside, oil stocks like Devon Energy (DVN), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) and Occidental (OXY) moved higher. Separately the European Commission announced an eight package of sanctions that would include a price cap on Russia’s oil exports. U.S. treasury yields (TLT:xnas, IEF:xnas, SHY:xnas) climbed again After plunging sharply the day before on the Bank of England move, yields of U.S. treasury securities rose, with the 10-year note yields rising 6bps to 3.79% on Thursday.  Yields initially crept higher on bounces of U.K. Gilt yields and higher German regional CPI data, but paring their rise in the afternoon.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hong Kong and mainland equity markets opened higher on Thursday and pared the gain through the day and settled moderately lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.5%, and CSI300 little changed. The news of the imposition of a 3-day mandatory PCR test in the financial district, Lujiazui in Shanghai due to one new Covid-19 case triggered some fears among investors. In spite of PBoC’s supportive statement coming out from its quarterly monetary meeting saying that the central bank will expand its special lending program to ensure the delivery of delayed housing projects, Chinese developers declined, with Country Garden (02007:xhkg) plunging 11.6%, Longfor (00960:xhkg) down by 7.5%, and CIFI (00884:xhkg) tumbling 16.3%.  Chinese EV maker, Zhejian Leapmotor (09863:xhkg), tumbled 33.5% in its first day of trading after an IPO priced at the bottom of a guided range.  XPeng (09868:xhkg) dropped 5.3%.  Trading in the China Internet space was mixed with Alibaba outperforming (+2.9%). Australia’s ASX200 (ASXSP200.1) likely to follow Wall Street lower: futures suggest a 0.3% fall today, aluminum stocks to be bright spark As above, on the ASX today, it’s worth keeping an eye on aluminum related stocks on the ASX including Rio Tinto (RIO) and Alumina (AWC). Meanwhile, diversified miners including the major retail favorites, like BHP (BHP) are worth watching after the Iron Ore (SCOA) price remains supported with China ramping up housing support. This morning the iron ore price (SCOA, SCOV2) pushed up ~1.1% to US$96.50. In NY BHP closed 0.6% higher, implying the ASX primary listing of BHP will likely move up, especially after the aluminum and iron ore prices rose. Cable stays bid and Euro follows The US 10-year yields as well as the dollar could not catch a strong bid on Thursday, which helped other G10 currencies gain some ground. Sterling was the strongest on the G10 board, with GBPUSD now testing 1.12 in early Asian hours. BOE’s emergency bond-buying measures however hints at a push lower in gilt yields, and GBP will likely come back under pressure if the surge in global yield resumes. This will need a focus shift back on Fed tightening as we think there is still some room for upward repricing of terminal rate Fed expectations and higher-for-longer rates. Meanwhile, expectations for an ultra-aggressive BOE hike in November cooled slightly. EURUSD also surged above 0.98 with ECB rate hike expectations for October meeting picking up after the hot German inflation, and with the ECB downplaying the chance of an emergency move to prop up Italian bonds. EURGBP was however lower from 0.8950 to 0.88. Aluminum and aluminum stocks on watch It’s worth watching aluminium related shares across the Asian-Pacific region today after the record jump in Aluminum price on the LME after Bloomberg reported plans to discuss a potential ban on new Russian metal supplies. The metal jumped 8.5% (its biggest intraday jump in record) before paring back. Crude oil (CLU2 & LCOV2) prices maintain gains Crude oil prices maintained the momentum with OPEC+ production cuts becoming a key factor going into the next week’s meeting. OPEC+ commenced discussions around an output cut with one saying it a cut is “likely”, according to Reuters sources. This comes after previous reports that Russia will likely propose OPEC+ reduces output by around 1mln BPD. Demand conditions are likely to weaken as global tightening race heats up, and this has prompted expectations for a supply cut as well. Brent futures touched $90/barrel mark but reversed slightly later, while WTI futures rose to $83/barrel before some decline later in the session.   What to consider? German inflation sparks EZ inflation fears German inflation touched double digits, as it came above consensus at 10.9% YoY for September from 8.8% YoY previously. Germany is also preparing to borrow an additional €200 billion to finance a plan to limit the impact of soaring energy costs, which could keep consumption high even as shortages loom. Up today will be the September eurozone inflation print. Expect a new record which will increase the pressure on the European Central Bank to hike interest rates by at least 75 basis points in October. The economist consensus expects that the headline harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) will reach 9.7% YoY against 9.1% in August. The core rate is expected to climb to 5.6% YoY against 5.5% previously. The spread between the headline and the core inflation figures is mostly explained by a decrease in oil and natural gas prices in recent months. However, this is clear that inflation is becoming broad-based, including in the services sector. This means that inflation is here to stay for long. The HICP is likely to continue increasing in the coming months. A peak in inflation in the eurozone is possible in the first quarter of 2023, in our view. This is much later than in the United States. Fed speakers push for more hikes Loretta Mester remains more hawkish than the Fed’s median dot plot, and said that rate are not in restrictive territory yet and more rate hikes will be needed. No signs of concern on economy or dollar strength were noted, while inflation remained the key point of concern for her. James Bullard also made some key comments on ‘bad idea to mess’ with the inflation target while the labor market conditions remain tight and recession is only a risk. Mary Daly was more cautious, saying officials should work to avoid "inducing a deep recession." However, she still raised the bar on expectations on the Fed funds rate saying that she is comfortable with median Fed rate path projection of 4%-4.5% by year end, 4.5%-5% in 2023 (pointing to upside risks as the dot plot suggested 4.6%, or 4.5-4.75% if we talk in ranges). US initial claims come in strong again Initial claims came in lower than expected at 193k with last week’s also revised lower to 209k from 213k. Continued claims cooled to 1.347mln from 1.376mln despite the expected rise to 1.388mln. The data shows how tight the labour market is in the US and Fed's Bullard labelled today's claims metric as "super low". Meanwhile, the third estimate of Q2 GDP was confirmed to decline 0.6%, notably with consumer spending revised higher to 2% from 1.5% previously. Australian inflation rose 7% in the year to July, based on new monthly CPI At this rate it doesn’t appear CPI will peak at just shy of the 8% the RBA forecasts, given price pressures have resumed this month from the largest inflation contributors. Based on the ABS’s new monthly CPI print, some of the largest price jumps year-on-year to July were in fuel (+29.2%) and fruit & vegetables (+14.5%). The concern is that, with La Nina set to hit Australia and population growth continuing, food and housing (rent) prices will continue to rise apace. In September alone, contributors to food prices have risen markedly, as the global supply outlook has weakened amid poor crop conditions. This could tilt the RBA back toward a more hawkish stance. Australian rents to drive higher, adding to inflation woes Australia’s population growth resumed after borders reopened and business employment remains strong for the time being, at 50-year highs. New office and residential supply is expected be subdued in 2023 as interest rates rise; which supports the notion of falling vacancy rates. According to Colliers and the ABS, Sydney CBD rents rose 3.6% to $5.22 per square foot in the June quarter, driven by competition for top-quality office space. China’s manufacturing PMIs are expected to stay in the contractionary territory China’s September official NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-manufacturing PMI as well as the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI are scheduled to release today. The median forecast of, economists surveyed by Bloomberg for the NBS Manufacturing PMI is 49.7 for September, a modest improvement from August’s 49.4 but remains in contraction territory.  Economists cite the lockdown of Chengdu and restrictive measures in some other cities during most part of the month and the weak EPMI released earlier as reasons for expecting the NBS Manufacturing PMI to stay below 50.  The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which has a larger weight in coastal cities in the eastern region, is expected to remain at 49.5 as export-related manufacturing activities and container throughput were weak.  The consensus estimate for the NBS Non-manufacturing PMI is 52.4, staying in the expansionary territory, supported by infrastructure construction but slowing slightly in September from August’s 52.6 due to weakness in the housing sector.  On the other hand, steel production and demand data in September suggest the PMIs may potentially surprise the upside. Buying activity up in food and Agricultural instruments, stocks and ETFs Food prices are supported higher as the global crop outlook dampens for 4 reasons; concern lingers over Ukraine’s exports being cut off, South America has been hit by rains and frosts, the US has been plagued by drought and dry conditions and as Hurricane Ian made landfall in the, US conditions are likely to go from bad to worse. And lastly - La Nina is expected to hit Australia for the third year in a row. So we are seeing clients buy into Wheat and Corn. Both prices are up 20% off their lows. Secondly, buying has been picking up in agricultural stocks like General Mills (GIS) and GrainCorp (GNC). And lastly, clients are biting into agricultural ETFs like Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) and iShares MSCI Agricultural Producers ETF (VEGI). Fed preferred inflation measure, US PCE, on the radar today The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE is due today, and it will likely echo the same message as given by the last strong CPI number which has made the Fed even more hawkish in the last few weeks since the Jackson Hole. Headline numbers may be lower due to the decline in gasoline prices, but the price pressure on services side will likely broaden further. Last week, the Fed also raised its forecasts for inflation, with the central bank now seeing core PCE at 4.5% by the end of this year (it previously projected 4.3%), moderating to 3.1% next year and at 2.1% at the end of its forecast horizon in 2025, but thinks that headline PCE prices will be at its 2% target by then. Putin's speech due today after Russia annexed parts of Ukraine Vladimir Putin will address legislators after Russia signs treaties today to absorb four occupied regions, with Ukrainian forces threatening to encircle a pocket of the Donbas region. There is also growing resistance to Putin’s decision to call up 300,000 reservists. Market focus will likely be on Putin’s warnings to the West about any potential threats of using nuclear weapons, which may mean risk aversion getting another leg up. Nike sank on concerns about inventory build-up and margins Nike (NKE) reported slightly better than expected revenues and inline earnings but below expectation gross margins and a 65% surge in inventories for the North American market.  In the earnings call, the company’s CFO pledged to take “decisive action to clear excess inventory” and such efforts will have “a transitory impact on gross margins this fiscal year”.  Investors took note of the implication on demand and profitability and sold stock to more than 9% lower in the extended hour trading. Apple fell on analyst downgrade After being sold on the company’s announcement to back off plans to increase iPhone production this year on the day before, Apple’s shares fell another 4.9% yesterday after an analyst downgrade from a U.S. investment bank.  In this Market Daily Insights piece yesterday, we mentioned the warnings from Peter Garnry, Saxo’s Head of Equity Strategy, about the likelihood that Apple’s revenue could slip into negative growth for the current quarter ending Sep 30 and you can find more details of his analysis from here. In his note, Peter also warns that analysts may be way off in their estimates for the S&P 500 for Q3 and it is highly probable that there will be significant misses to the downside followed by gloomy comments from company management about the outlook on margins.     For a week-ahead look at markets – tune into our Saxo Spotlight. For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast. Source: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/market-insights-today-30-sept-30092022
Inflation Rising Again In The Eurozone, Positive GDP In The Great Britain

Inflation Rising Again In The Eurozone, Positive GDP In The Great Britain

Craig Erlam Craig Erlam 30.09.2022 14:17
Stock markets are bouncing back on Friday, although I don’t think anyone is getting excited by the moves which pale in comparison to the losses that preceded them. This looks like nothing more than a dead cat bounce after a steep decline over the last couple of weeks as investors have been forced to once again accept that interest rates are going to rise further and faster than hoped. Double-digit eurozone inflation Inflation in the eurozone hit 10% in September ahead of schedule, with markets expecting a jump to 9.7% from 9.1% in August. In normal circumstances that may have triggered a reaction but these are anything but normal. Markets are still pricing in a more than 70% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike from the ECB next month with an outside chance of 1%. The euro is slightly lower following the release which also showed core inflation rising a little higher than expected to 4.8%. Sterling recovers as the UK is revised out of a potential recession We’re seeing the third day of gains for the pound which has now recovered the bulk of the losses sustained after the “mini-budget” a week ago. This is not a sign of investors coming around the new Chancellor’s unfunded tax-cutting, but rather a reflection of the work done since to calm the market reaction. That includes the emergency intervention from the BoE, talk of measures to balance the cost of the tax cuts, reported discussions with the OBR and rumoured unrest within the Tory party. We’ll have to see what that amounts to and sterling could certainly react negatively again to inaction or the wrong action. GDP data this morning brought some good news, although as far as positive updates go, this is surely towards the more insignificant end. The UK is not in recession after the second quarter GDP was revised up from -0.1% to +0.2%. While all positive revisions are welcome, the technical recession wasn’t really significant in the first place. The important thing was that the UK is struggling to grow and facing a probable deeper recession down the road and today’s revision doesn’t change that. ​ Disappointing Chinese surveys China’s PMIs highlighted the widening gulf between the performance of state-owned firms versus their private competition. It goes without saying that being backed by the state in uncertain times like this carries certain advantages and that has been evident for some time. Private firms have been more sensitive to Covid restrictions and have therefore been heavily hampered this year. Still, even with those state-backed benefits, the headline PMI was far from encouraging rising to 50.1 and barely in growth territory. With the non-manufacturing PMI also slipping from 52.6 to 50.6, it’s clear that the economy still faces enormous headwinds and the global economy stalling around it will only add to them. BoJ ramps up bond purchases amid higher yields The Bank of Japan ramped up bond purchases overnight as it continues to defend its yield curve control thresholds in volatile market conditions. Rising global yields have forced the central bank to repeatedly purchase JGBs in order to maintain its target. There has been a growing expectation that the BoJ could tweak its 0% target or widen the band it allows fluctuations between in order to ease the pressure on the currency but that’s not been forthcoming, with the MoF instead intervening in the markets for the first time since 1998. The intervention doom loop continues. RBI rate hike and credit line The Reserve Bank of India hiked the repo rate by 50bps to 5.9% on Friday, in what will likely be one of its final tightening measures in the fight against inflation. The decision was widely expected and followed shortly after by guidance to state-run refiners to reduce dollar buying in spot markets through the use of a $9 billion credit line. The strength of the dollar is posing a risk to countries around the world, as we’ve seen very clearly in recent weeks as mentioned above, and measures like this will seek to alleviate those pressures. Much more will be needed to make any significant difference though. A period of stability is what bitcoin needs It’s been a very choppy week in bitcoin which has failed to make a sustainable run in either direction despite attempts at both. Perhaps we are seeing a floor forming a little shy of the early summer lows around $17,500, although that will very much depend on risk appetite not plummeting once more which it very much has the potential to do. I keep using the word resilience when discussing bitcoin and that has very much remained the case. It did also struggle to build on the rally earlier this week, even hold it into the end of the day, so perhaps a period of stability is what it needs. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Data From Asia And Australia Will Be In Focus For The Coming Week

Data From Asia And Australia Will Be In Focus For The Coming Week

ING Economics ING Economics 01.10.2022 08:42
A key central bank meeting and regional inflation and trade figures are in focus next week In this article The week ahead RBA meets to discuss policy Most regional inflation readings to accelerate Korea and Taiwan trade data PMI readings from Indonesia, Philippines and Singapore All about reserves Source: Shutterstock The week ahead In the coming week, we'll get readings on inflation, trade and PMI reports from the region. Also, with FX markets battered, data on dollar reserves will be in focus. Lastly, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets to discuss policy, with the chance of a 50bp hike increasing.  RBA meets to discuss policy Following some reasonable August labour market data, and stronger-than-expected retail sales figures, recent hints from the Reserve Bank of Australia that it may soon start to tighten rates at a slower pace are looking a bit less credible right now. With a strong and unified hawkish chorus from US Fed officials, the apparent ruling out by the US White House of a plaza-style currency agreement, and a further sliding of the Australian dollar, the odds are swinging back towards another 50bp RBA move at the coming meeting. Most regional inflation readings to accelerate Price pressures are likely to kick into high gear for both the Philippines and Indonesia which should keep their respective central banks on notice.   Indonesia's inflation has remained relatively subdued of late, but a recent price hike for subsidised fuel should push headline inflation past 6% year-on-year. Philippine inflation should also edge higher after a brief pause.   Meanwhile, the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen should add pressure to inflation, with Tokyo CPI inflation expected to rise to 2.9%YoY in September. Inflation in Korea will also likely move higher, up 5.7%. Gasoline prices may have declined but food prices climbed quite sharply for the month. Lastly, Taiwan's inflation should have a strong correlation with its trade data. Our outlook is for a slowdown in trade due to fading purchasing power for US and European markets. The weakness in the trade sector suggests softer demand in Taiwan given its dependence on external trade. Thus we expect lower CPI and WPI inflation for Taiwan. Korea and Taiwan trade data Korea's September trade data will also be in focus for the coming week. Set for release over the weekend, we expect export growth to slow to 2%YoY given the unfavourable calendar day effect. Semiconductors exports should rebound marginally after a sudden drop in August, but automobile exports are likely to turn negative as suggested by a recent industry report. Import growth is also expected to decelerate as the drop in oil prices overwhelms the weak Korean won.   Taiwan will also release trade figures in the coming days. Both exports and imports should be softer than in August, as high inflation in the US and Europe has led to a fall in purchasing power and thus weaker demand for Taiwan's exports.  PMI readings from Indonesia, Philippines and Singapore Next week will feature the latest readings for PMI manufacturing. We can expect declines in PMI indices for both the Philippines and Singapore due to slower export demand although both indices are likely to remain in expansion. Indonesia on the other hand should see a modest improvement in activity tracking surging exports.   All about reserves The ongoing rout in currency markets has central banks dipping into reserves to slow the depreciation of their currencies. Reserve levels are likely to fall in the coming months and both the Philippines and Indonesia could see lower levels given depreciation pressure for their respective currencies.   Asia Economic Calendar Source: Refinitiv, ING TagsTaiwan Reserve Bank of Australia Indonesia Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Expectations Of Another Rise In Inflation In Turkey

Expectations Of Another Rise In Inflation In Turkey

ING Economics ING Economics 01.10.2022 08:52
Turkish inflation is expected to increase to 83.5% in September due to significant price hikes in electricity and natural gas fees. In Hungary, we see the manufacturing PMI jumping to 58.2, as order books remain filled and supply chain issues have gradually recovered In this article Turkey: Annual inflation to increase further Hungary: Retail sales to slow, industrial production to jump Source: Shutterstock Turkey: Annual inflation to increase further In September, we expect annual inflation to increase to 83.5% (3.1% on monthly basis) from 80.2% a month ago, given significant administrative price hikes in electricity and natural gas fees. Pricing pressures will likely remain broad-based on the back of a largely supportive policy framework along with a less supportive global backdrop leading to currency weakness. Hungary: Retail sales to slow, industrial production to jump The calendar for Hungary contains some activity data from August. We see retail sales slowing as prices rise quickly and households are increasingly conscious about their spending. On the other hand, industrial production will jump as the month of August this year contained two more working days than in the last year, boosting the unadjusted growth figure. When it comes to the September outlook for industry, the manufacturing PMI will give us some clues and we expect this to suggest expansion as orders books remain filled and supply chain issues have become less severe. Key events in EMEA next week Source: Refinitiv, ING TagsTurkey Hungary   Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
Will The Depreciation Of The Australian Dollar (AUD) Against The US Dollar (USD) Forces An Interest Rate Hike By 50 bp?

Will The RBA To Raise Rates Again And How Many Percentage Points This Time?

Kamila Szypuła Kamila Szypuła 01.10.2022 11:48
Inflation is expected to peak later this year and then decline back towards the 2–3 per cent range. The expected moderation in inflation reflects the ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, recent declines in some commodity prices and the impact of rising interest rates. The outlook for global economic The path to achieving this balance is a narrow one and clouded in uncertainty, not least because of global developments. The outlook for global economic growth has deteriorated due to pressures on real incomes from high inflation, the tightening of monetary policy in most countries, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the COVID containment measures and other policy challenges in China. The outlook for global economic growth has worsened and represents a key uncertainty. Central banks in several major advanced economies have expressed continued determination to tighten monetary policy to prevent the consolidation of high inflation, which would likely trigger a period of much lower growth. High inflation also put pressure on real incomes, especially in Europe, as the impact on energy markets worsened following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The last decision Inflation in Australia is the highest it has been since the early 1990s and is expected to increase further over the months ahead. The Board is committed to returning inflation to the 2–3 per cent range over time. At its last meeting, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 50 basis points to 2.35 per cent. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 50 basis points to 2.25 per cent. The expectations The Council expects a further increase in interest rates in the coming months, but it is not on a predetermined path given the uncertainty about the outlook for inflation and growth. The behavior of household spending remains a significant source of uncertainty. Higher inflation and higher interest rates put pressure on household budgets. The RBA started its rate rise cycle in May during the federal election campaign. The market may expect the RBA to raise rates again. The question remains only by how many percentage points this time? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be deciding between a 0.25 and a 0.50 percentage point hike. Some experts expect the Australian central bank to raise interest rates another half a point in its most aggressive tightening cycle to contain red-hot inflation. As at 30 September, the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures October 2022 contract was trading at 97.305, indicating a 79% expectation of an interest rate increase to 2.85% at the next RBA Board meeting. Although many well-known economists such as Ben Jarman, the chief economist of JPMorgan, swear that on Tuesday the central bank will decide on the fifth consecutive "undersized" increase by 50 bp, the chances are that the RBA will decide to tighten monetary policy more slightly by 25 bp. The official decision will be announced on Tuesday, October 4. The rates market is even more hawkish. The Board is still resolute in the need to ensure inflation returned to target, but mindful that the path to achieve this needed to account for the risks to growth and employment. The Board is seeking to return inflation to target while keeping the economy on an even keel. The path to achieving this balance remains a narrow one and clouded in uncertainty. The size and timing of future interest rate increases will still depend on the incoming economic data and the assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market.
A Gloomy Outlook For The Global Economy, Do We Have To Prepare For The Worst?

A Gloomy Outlook For The Global Economy, Do We Have To Prepare For The Worst?

InstaForex Analysis InstaForex Analysis 03.10.2022 11:20
Key reports published in both US and Europe show that inflation continues to spiral and is at staggering levels. This prompted Credit Suisse to issue a gloomy outlook for the global economy, saying the worst is yet to come. The Department of Commerce released the latest inflation data, indicating that core PCE jumped 0.6% in August. This suggests that inflation is still intense and increasing, and may even be higher in the next months. Core labor costs, which excludes food and energy costs, also rose 4.9%, up 4.7% from forecasts. In Europe, inflation hit a new record high of 10% in September. CPI for the Eurozone differs from that of the US as year-on-year energy prices in the region were up 40.8%. In the US, there is a slight decline from 8.5% to 8.3%. To address inflation, the Fed has implemented five consecutive interest rate hikes, but from last week's report, it is obvious that the aggressive measure is yet to bring inflation down. Vice Chairman Lael Brainard said the risk of additional inflationary shocks cannot be ruled out, so the central bank is trying to avoid a premature retreat. "Monetary policy should be tight for some time to be sure that inflation returns to its target level," she stated.   Relevance up to 10:00 2022-10-05 UTC+2 Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results. The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/323234