canada

March 28, 2022  $USD, BOJ, China, Currency Movement, German, Interest Rates, nuclear, Russia, Ukraine Overview: Yields are surging.  Canada and Australia's two-year yields have jumped 20 bp, with the US yield up 10 bp to 2.37% ahead of the $50 bln sale later today.  The US 10-year yield has risen a more modest three basis points to 2.50%, flattening the 2-10-year yields curve.  The 5–30-year curve has inverted for the first time since 2016.  European 10-year benchmark yields have risen 3-7 bp.  Tech stocks helped power the Hang Seng and Australia eked out a small gain, but most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region sold off for third consecutive session.  Led by financials, utilities, and communication, the Stoxx 600 has risen by about 0.75% in the European morning.  US futures are trading with a heavier bias.  The greenback is firm, with the yen again under the most pressure.  It is trading briefly above JPY125 in late morning activity in Europe, before pulling back.  The Australian dollar is the only major currency higher on the day.  Emerging market currencies are mostly lower.  The South Korean won, and Thai baht are hardest hit alongside the Polish zloty.  The jump in yields takes some shine off gold, which reached $1966 last week.  It is now straddling the $1930 area.  The $1900 area may offer important support.  The lockdown in Shanghai is sparking concerns about oil demand.  May WTI is off almost 4% after last week's 10.5% rally.  There is also speculation (hope) that OPEC+ agrees to boost output at this week's meeting.  US natural gas prices are little changed after rising in every session last week.  Europe's benchmark has risen by a little more than 8% today after falling 2.4% last week.  Iron ore is a little firmer, while copper is falling for the third session in a row.  May wheat is offered, giving back 2.4% after last week's 3.6% a rally.    Asia Pacific The Bank of Japan entered the market to reinforce the 0.25% cap of the 10-year yield.  Its first offer to buy an unlimited amount of bonds failed to draw any interest.  The second attempt had to buy JPY64.5 bln (~$525 mln).  The BOJ recognizes it is engaged in a struggle now and has pre-announced will be there for the next three sessions.  Separately, we note that according to the latest Nikkei poll, support for Prime Minister Kishida has risen six percentage points to 61%, with high marks given for handling the Russia's invasion of Ukraine.   On the one hand, China rejects the sanction regime against Russia, it says, because it is being imposed with a UN resolution.  On the other hand, reports suggest that Beijing and mainland companies are asking US officials for clarification with the idea in mind to understand what is permitted.  China and India purchases, for example, of Russian oil is not violating the sanctions.   There was thought that China would abandon its strict zero-Covid course.  Some suggested that the easing of restrictions in Hong Kong could be a prelude to a change by Beijing.  However, that does not appear to be the case.  Yesterday, Beijing announced a lockdown of Shanghai, China's largest city (population estimated around 25 mln).  The eastern half of city will be locked down for four days starting today.  This covers the financial district.  The purpose is mass testing.  The western half of the city will be locked down as of April 1.  Residents will be barred from leaving home and public transportation and ride-hailing services will be halted. A record 5500 cases were said to have been reported on Saturday. Recall that earlier this month, Shenzhen, an important tech hub was locked down. China is taking a new initiative though that has not been widely reported. It appears that China and the Solomon Islands are close to a security pact.  The leaked documents suggest that the pact could lead to a Chinese military presence there.  The Solomon Islands did not confirm the leaked details but did acknowledge that it was broadening out its security arrangements and China would be included in the changes.  This is a blow to Australia, which had seemingly secured the strategically located country into the Western alliance.  Solomon Islands had abandoned Huawei in 2018 and struck an agreement with Australia to build a 2500-mile internet cable to it. Last year, Australia sent some police to help quell riots in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands, over economic problems, and anti-Chinese sentiment.  Yet, China has been making inroads.  For example, in 2019, Honiara dropped its recognition of Taiwan.  The US has acted belatedly.  Its embassy was closed in 1993 and not re-opened until last month.  As the map here shows, a Chinese presence in the Solomon Islands would compromise Australia's security.     The BOJ's defense of its Yield Curve Control policy in the face of surging global yields and especially US rates keeps the yen on the defensive.  The yen edged higher at the end of last week for the first time in six sessions, but its losses have accelerated today.  As we have noted the last significant high was in 2015 and then the greenback reached about JPY125.85. The notable high before that was in 2002, a little above JPY135.  The Australian dollar is firm.  It posted a marginal new five-month high near $0.7540.  It is approaching last October's high by $0.7550.  It is the fifth consecutive advance, if sustained, and it would be the ninth gain in the past 10 sessions.  The positive terms-of-trade shock seems to the be chief driver.  A pre-election due first thing Wednesday in Canberra is expected to include a cut in the fuel tax for six months, support for first-time home buyers, and boost funds for roads and rails.  The election is expected to be called by late May.  The greenback gapped higher against the Chinese yuan, reaching a little more than CNY6.3810, but has subsequently trended lower to fill the nearly fill the gap (the pre-weekend high) by CNY6.3680.  The PBOC's reference rate for the dollar was lower than the Bloomberg survey anticipated (CNY6.3732 vs. CNY6.3740).    Europe In an unexpected turn of events, Germany's Economic Minister Habeck, a member of the Green Party, suggested that he is open to re-examining the decision to close the county's remaining three nuclear plants later this year.  Previously, the Greens and Habeck ruled out this option.  Still, the surge in energy prices and the belated efforts to reduce its dependence on Russia is pushing the pragmatic Greens (realos) in this direction.  Merkel's push to close the nuclear energy plants after Japan's nuclear accident in 2011 resulting in increased reliance on Russia and spurred the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.  Among the scenarios that were bandied about before Russia's invasion of Ukraine was that it could pursue a limited objective of securing the entire regional claims Donetsk and Luhansk.  Since the war began, Western sources has played up different scenarios, one of total occupation of Ukraine.  The narrative it tells now is that after having suffered some significant setbacks, for which the higher range of estimates suggest Russia has lost as many soldiers (15k) in Ukraine as it did in 10 years in Afghanistan.  Russia admits to less than a tenth of those estimated deaths in Ukraine.  Even taking into account the number of injuries inflicted, the lower bottom of NATO's range is (7k).  It is quite clear that both sides have it in their interest to, shall we say, see what they want.  Still, the point now is that Russia's 1st Deputy General of the Chief of Staff suggested Russian forces will focus on gaining the full control of the Luhansk, for which it may be nearly there, and Donetsk, which is thought to be a little more than half secured.  The idea is that when the territory is militarily secure, a referendum would be held to formally join Russia.  Strategically, a land-bridge to Crimea will also be secured.   The euro was sold to an eight-day low near $1.0945 after holding above $1.0960 last week.  It popped up in early European turnover to the session of just below $1.10.  That is an important level in the coming days, with large options expiring there.  The nearly 585 mln euro expiry today is the smallest.  Tomorrow's expiring options are for almost 2.5 bln euros and the same for Wednesday ahead of Thursday's nearly 2.9 bln euro expirations.  If the upside is blocked, look for a test on $1.09 and below there is this month's low slightly ahead of $1.08.  Sterling is testing last week's low by $1.3120.  A break targets the $1.3070 area, and possibly $1.30, which was seen in the middle of the month. It last traded below there in late 2020, when it found a base around $1.2880.    America The US Treasury indicated that Russia could use frozen funds to make debt payments until May 25.   Next Monday, there is a $2.2 bln debt servicing payment due.  Some covenants allow for the rouble payments, but these reportedly do not.  After May 25, it needs to raise money other ways, including selling its oil and gas.  Over the weekend, President Biden implied relations with Russia cannot be normalized while Putin is in control.  It was later walked back by Secretary of State Blinken.  However, with the US claiming Putin is a war criminal, it is hard not to conclude that the US seeks regime change.  Some might find the US assertion of war crimes more powerful and compelling if Washington or Moscow were signatory members of the International Court of Justice.  If you are keeping records of such things, Beijing is not a member either.  The ICJ does not have authority over non-members.   President Biden is struggling in the polls.  His support is around 40%, near the levels that Trump experienced at the same time of his presidency.  One poll found that some 70% have little confidence in his handling of Russia and the war.  This suggests that his base has also softened.  Meanwhile, Biden is expected to unveil new budget proposals, which will include record spending for "peace" time.  He is expected to formally endorse the previous Senate Democrat proposal for a "billionaires' tax that would be extended to unrealized gains.  It is said to raise $360 bln over the next 10 years.  At the same time, without the Covid-related spending and income replaces, the budget deficit will be projected to fall.  The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey has the budget deficit falling to 5.1% of GDP this year form 10.8% last.   Lastly, there seems to be a misunderstanding about trend growth in the US.  Some observers talk about a growth recession as the most likely or best outcome that can be anticipated.  Yet the 2% pace or so bandied about can hardly be called a "growth recession” because for the Fed this would simply be a return to trend growth.  The Fed estimates that the long-term growth rate is 1.8%-2.0%.   On tap today is the US February advanced goods trade balance.  It was a record deficit in January.  Wholesale and retail inventories are also due.  Retail inventories rose by an average of 2.3% a month in Q4 21.  They are expected to have risen by about 1.4% after January's 1.9% increase.  Wholesale inventories rose by an average of 2.2% in Q4 21.   They are rising at about half that pace in the first two months of Q1 22.  We have noted that the inventory cycle is maturing, and it will not provide the tailwind as it did previously, and especially in Q4 21. The Dallas manufacturing survey is expected to have soften a little.     The US dollar has a nine-day drop in tow against the Canadian dollar coming into today's session.  It is pinned near the pre-weekend low around CAD1.2465.  It has not been above CAD1.2505 today.  We anticipate some near-term consolidation that could see the greenback trade toward CAD1.2520-CAD1.2540.  The US dollar is poised to snap an 11-day slide against the Mexican peso.  During that run, the greenback fell from around MXN21.06 to about MXN19.91.  It has been up to MXN20.12 today and since then it has found support ahead of MXN20.00.  We suspect near-term potential extends into the MXN20.20-MXN20.22 area.       Disclaimer

Some of crucial releases are behind us, but there is more to come! Tomorrow China, Great Britain, the USA, Germany and Canada have their economic indicators released so don’t miss a thing! Night-morning – 31/03/22 The day begins with the release of Chinese Manufacturing PMI indicator which previously hit 50.2 This one is released at 2:30 a.m. Four and half hours later we move to Great Britain to follow the announcement of GDP (QoQ and YoY). The Quarter on Quarter one reached 1% previously and Year on Year hit 6.5% At 8:55 a.m. German Unemployment Change goes public (prev. -33K). Afternoon – 31/03/22 Shortly after midday (1:30 p.m.) the US Initial Jobless Claims and Canadian GDP are announced. The previous values amounted to 187K and 0% respectively. Source/Data: Investing.com Economic Calendar

Wednesday, April 6th is a day which can’t ‘praise’ itself with loads of economic events, but those which take place in the following day are definitely crucial! There is only one news which can really wake us up tomorrow and it’s UK Construction PMI (Mar) which previously amounted to 59.1 Let’s watch it closely – data can affect GBP rate. Afternoon is much, much tempting. We begin with Canadian Ivey PMI (Mar). Previously this one hit 60.6 At 3:30 p.m. US Crude Oil inventories go public. It’s surely the most awaited indicator of the day as the price of crude is topping the headlines. There’s no doubt Polish readers are looking forward to tomorrow’s evening. At 6 p.m. interest rate decision is released by NBP. In times of Russia-Ukraine conflict the rate of zloty has been hit several times and national bank tries get it back in the game. Let’s go back to the USA. Tomorrow, at 7 p.m. FOMC Meeting Minutes is published and as we wrote last time, it can be the first ‘trailer’ of Fed’s rhetoric and next interest rate decision. The last one confirmed tightening of monetary policy. Data/Source: Investing.com Economic Calendar

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar. Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising of bullish bets in the Canadian ‘Loonie’ dollar currency futures contracts. CAD speculators raised their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, CAD bets have improved by a total of +26,166 contracts, going from -4,940 net positions on March 22nd to +21,226 net positions this week. These gains have brought this week’s speculator level to the most bullish position since July 13th of 2021, a span of forty weeks. This recent improvement in Loonie sentiment has been helped out by the hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC recently pushed its key interest rate higher by 50 basis points on April 13th and has in the past few days hinted that more interest rate rises were to come. The recent inflation numbers out of Canada were above expectations (6.7 percent) and according to Bloomberg, market participants have pushed their odds to 100 percent for another 50 basis point hike in June. Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (2,943 contracts), Japanese yen (4,640 contracts), Swiss franc (2,492 contracts), New Zealand dollar (654 contracts), Canadian dollar (9,068 contracts)and the Mexican peso (6,704 contracts). The currencies with declining bets were the Euro (-7,759 contracts), Brazil real (-1,557 contracts), Australian dollar (-122 contracts), Bitcoin (-361 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-5,860 contracts). Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index USD Index 54,524 77 32,580 82 -35,893 15 3,313 53 EUR 675,939 72 31,301 45 -49,726 62 18,425 5 GBP 249,529 70 -58,914 32 72,889 73 -13,975 27 JPY 251,291 90 -107,187 3 129,842 99 -22,655 7 CHF 44,269 20 -11,450 50 23,051 57 -11,601 29 CAD 153,302 32 21,226 68 -39,338 31 18,112 66 AUD 147,309 43 -28,837 58 20,800 34 8,037 72 NZD 41,098 26 365 72 503 31 -868 42 MXN 165,403 33 21,664 37 -26,214 62 4,550 62 RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24 BRL 70,553 68 44,572 94 -47,063 5 2,491 94 Bitcoin 11,276 61 -194 90 -175 0 369 21   US Dollar Index Futures: The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,637 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.6 3.3 9.5 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.9 69.1 3.5 – Net Position: 32,580 -35,893 3,313 – Gross Longs: 46,685 1,778 5,198 – Gross Shorts: 14,105 37,671 1,885 – Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.0 15.0 52.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 3.3 -5.8   Euro Currency Futures: The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,060 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.7 11.4 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 61.0 8.7 – Net Position: 31,301 -49,726 18,425 – Gross Longs: 221,003 362,930 76,939 – Gross Shorts: 189,702 412,656 58,514 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.6 61.9 4.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 9.7 -10.9   British Pound Sterling Futures: The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,054 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 74.6 8.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 45.4 14.4 – Net Position: -58,914 72,889 -13,975 – Gross Longs: 36,811 186,134 21,987 – Gross Shorts: 95,725 113,245 35,962 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.6 72.8 26.7 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.4 28.1 -2.2   Japanese Yen Futures: The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -107,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,827 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.1 86.0 8.3 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.7 34.3 17.3 – Net Position: -107,187 129,842 -22,655 – Gross Longs: 12,723 216,101 20,761 – Gross Shorts: 119,910 86,259 43,416 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.9 99.0 7.4 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.6 25.9 -3.8   Swiss Franc Futures: The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,942 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.6 71.7 21.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 19.6 47.9 – Net Position: -11,450 23,051 -11,601 – Gross Longs: 2,900 31,735 9,599 – Gross Shorts: 14,350 8,684 21,200 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.7 to 1 0.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 56.8 29.2 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 1.3 1.8   Canadian Dollar Futures: The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,158 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 45.0 24.6 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 70.7 12.8 – Net Position: 21,226 -39,338 18,112 – Gross Longs: 44,063 68,989 37,784 – Gross Shorts: 22,837 108,327 19,672 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 31.1 65.8 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.4 -17.2 20.4   Australian Dollar Futures: The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,715 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.6 53.8 19.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 39.6 13.7 – Net Position: -28,837 20,800 8,037 – Gross Longs: 39,201 79,208 28,257 – Gross Shorts: 68,038 58,408 20,220 – Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 34.4 72.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 45.8 -42.8 19.6   New Zealand Dollar Futures: The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 365 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -289 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 45.9 6.8 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5 44.6 8.9 – Net Position: 365 503 -868 – Gross Longs: 19,081 18,853 2,797 – Gross Shorts: 18,716 18,350 3,665 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 31.2 41.9 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.4 -20.2 4.0   Mexican Peso Futures: The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,960 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 50.0 4.7 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 65.8 1.9 – Net Position: 21,664 -26,214 4,550 – Gross Longs: 73,710 82,643 7,701 – Gross Shorts: 52,046 108,857 3,151 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 61.9 62.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.4 12.1 10.1   Brazilian Real Futures: The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 44,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,129 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.2 17.6 6.1 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 84.3 2.5 – Net Position: 44,572 -47,063 2,491 – Gross Longs: 53,790 12,399 4,272 – Gross Shorts: 9,218 59,462 1,781 – Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.2 5.4 94.0 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 5.4 5.0   Bitcoin Futures: The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167 net contracts. This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS – Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.3 3.6 10.2 – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.0 5.2 7.0 – Net Position: -194 -175 369 – Gross Longs: 8,263 408 1,155 – Gross Shorts: 8,457 583 786 – Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1 NET POSITION TREND: – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 27.4 21.3 – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 19.8 4.8   Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email *COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

The bullish dollar narrative was fairly straightforward  Yes, the US main challengers, China and Russia, have been hobbled in different ways by self-inflicted injuries. Still, the driver of the dollar was the expected aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The market accepted that after being a bit slower than ideal (though faster and before many other large central banks), the Fed would move forcefully against inflation, even if it diminished the chances of an economic soft-landing.   However, now the market seems to have a different reaction function  The euro was impressively resilient after the job growth of more than twice expectations. However, the softer than expected US CPI sent the dollar broadly lower, inflicting some apparent technical damage to the charts.  We are reluctant to chase the dollar lower and impressed in a week that the US reported a decline in CPI and PPI that the 10-year bond yield closed a few basis points higher and the first back-to-back weekly increase in two months Technically, it seems that the dollar's pullback, nearly a month-old, move is getting maybe getting stretched. We will try to identify levels that could confirm another leg lower and what would suggest the US dollar may snap back.   Dollar Index:   After reaching almost 107.00 after the stronger than expected jobs data, the Dollar Index fell to almost 104.65 in response to the softer than expected CPI. It was the lowest level since the end of June. The MACD is still falling but oversold. The Slow Stochastic looks poised to turn lower from the middle of the range. Nevertheless, we like it higher in the coming days. We target 106.30 and then 107.00. A move above 107.50 could signal a return to the highs near 109.30 from mid-July. That said, a close below 105.00 would boost the risk of another leg lower.  Euro:  The euro rallied strongly after the softer US CPI, but a key trendline drawn off the February, March, and June highs begins the new week near $1.0375 remains unchallenged. Although the momentum indicators allow for additional gains, we look for the euro to push lower in the coming days. Only a move above the trendline would give it new life. We think the greater likelihood is for the single currency to initially ease toward $1.0180-$1.0200. It may take a break of $1.01 to signal a return to the 20-year low set in mid-July near $0.9950. The US two-year premium over Germany narrowed every day last week for a cumulative 11 bp to near 2.66%. Italy's premium over Germany was trimmed by six basis points. It was the third week of convergence, but at 0.75%, it is still nearly twice what it was in June. Japanese Yen:  The greenback was pushed away from JPY135 by the decline in US rates after the CPI figures. It was sold to about JPY131.75, holding above the month's low set on August 2 near JPY130.40. However, US rates closed firmer on the week despite three softer-than-expected price reports (CPI, PPI, and import/export prices). As a result, the greenback looks poised to test the JPY135.00-50 ceiling. A move above JPY136 would target the JPY137.50 area. We have emphasized the strong correlation between changes in the exchange rate and the US 10-year yield. That correlation is off its highs though still above 0.50, while the correlation with the US two-year yield has risen toward 0.65, the highest in five months.  British Pound:   Sterling rose to $1.2275 in the broad US dollar sell-off in the middle of last week. It stalled in front of the high set on August 2, a little shy of $1.23. This sets up a potential double top formation with a neckline at $1.20. A break would re-target the two-year low set in July near $1.1760. The MACD is set to turn down. The Slow Stochastic is going sideways in the middle of the range after pulling back earlier this month. Sentiment seems poor, and in the week ahead, the UK is expected to report some easing in the labor market, accelerating consumer prices, and another decline in retail sales. Canadian Dollar:   The US dollar fell to near a two-month low last week slightly below CAD1.2730, and slipped through the 200-day moving average on an intraday basis for the first time since June 9. The test of the (61.8%) retracement of this year's rally (early April low ~CAD1.2400 and the mid-July high ~CAD1.3225) found near CAD1.2715 was successful. The US dollar recovered ahead of the weekend back to the CAD1.2800 area. Although the momentum indicators give room for further US dollar losses, we suspect a near-term low is in place and look for an upside correction toward CAD1.2850-CAD1.2900. The Canadian dollar remains sensitive to the immediate risk environment reflected in the change in the S&P 500. The correlation over the past 30 sessions is a little better than 0.60. The correlation reached a two-year high in June near 0.80. The exchange rate's correlation (30 sessions) with oil prices (WTI) set this year's high in early August near 0.60. It is now slightly below 0.50.  Australian Dollar:   Although our bias is for the US dollar to correct higher, the Aussie does not line up quite as well. It broke above the high set at the start of the month near $0.7050 and has held above it. However, its surge stalled slightly above $0.7135, and it consolidated in a narrow range around $0.7100 ahead of the weekend. The momentum indicators are constructive. The main hurdle is the 200-day moving average near $0.7150 and the (50%) retracement of this year's decline (~$0.7660 in early April and ~$6680 in mid-July) found near $0.7170. A break of this area could see a return to the June high by $0.7285.   Mexican Peso:   Latin American currencies had a good week, except for the Argentine peso, which fell by more than 1%, for the dubious honor of being the poorest performer in the emerging markets. Led by Chile (+3.9%) and the Colombian peso (3.8%), Latam currencies accounted for half of the top five performers last week. The peso's 2.7% gain was its best in five months, and the dollar was sold a little through MXN19.85, its lowest level since late June when it reached almost MXN19.82.There seems little to prevent a move toward MXN19.50. Any worries that AMLO's appointments to the central bank would block aggressive tightening of monetary policy must have evaporated as Banxico demonstrated a resolve to hike rates and shadow the US.  Chinese Yuan:   The yuan took a step lower from mid-April until mid-May. Since then, it has been trading within the range more or less seen in the second half of May. That dollar range is roughly CNY6.650 to CNY6.77. For the past month, the dollar has traded between CNY6.72 and CNY6.78, fraying the upper end of the broader range after the greenback surged broadly after the US employment data. Policymakers have signaled concern about inflation and its reluctance to ease monetary policy. It would seem the domestic policy efforts might favor a firm yuan.     Disclaimer   Source: Is the Dollar's Month-Long Pullback Over?

Overview: Equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, though Chinese and Hong Kong markets eased, and South Korea and India were closed for national holidays. Despite new Chinese exercises off the coast of Taiwan following another US congressional visit, Taiwan’s Taiex gained almost 0.85%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is advancing for the fourth consecutive session, while US futures are paring the pre-weekend rally. Following disappointing data and a surprise cut in the one-year medium-term lending facility, China’s 10-year yield fell to 2.66%, its lowest in two years. The US 10-year is soft near 2.83%, while European yields are mostly 2-4 bp lower. Italian bonds are bucking the trend and the 10-year yield is a little higher. The Antipodeans and Norwegian krone are off more than 1%, but all the major currencies are weaker against the greenback, but the Japanese yen, which is practically flat. Most emerging market currencies are lower too. The Hong Kong Dollar, which has been supported by the HKMA, strengthened before the weekend, and is consolidating those gains today. Gold tested the $1800 level again but has been sold in the wake of the stronger dollar and is at a five-day low near $1778. The poor data from China raises questions about demand, and September WTI is off 3.6% after falling 2.4% before the weekend. It is near $88.60, while last week’s five-month lows were set near $87.00. US natgas is almost 2% lower, while Europe’s benchmark is up 2.7% to easily recoup the slippage of the past two sessions. China’s disappointment is weighing on industrial metal prices. Iron ore tumbled 4% and September copper is off nearly 3%. September wheat snapped a four-day advance before the weekend and is off 2.3% today.  Asia Pacific With a set of disappointing of data, China surprised with a 10-bp reduction in the benchmark one-year lending facility rate to 2.75%  It is the first cut since January. It also cut the yield on the seven-day repo rate to 2.0% from 2.1%. The string of poor news began before the weekend with a larger-than-expect in July lending figures. However, those lending figures probably need to be put in the context of the surge seen in June as lenders scramble to meet quota. Today's July data was simply weak. Industrial output and retail sales slowed sequentially year-over-year, whereas economists had projected modest increases. New home prices eased by 0.11%, and residential property sales fell 31.4% year-over-year after 31.8% decline in June. Property investment fell 6.4% year-over-year, year-to-date measures following a 5.4% drop in June. Fix asset investment also slowed. The one exception to the string of disappointment was small slippage in the surveyed unemployment rate to 5.4% from 5.5%. Incongruous, though on the other hand, the jobless rate for 16–24-year-olds rose to a record 19.9%. Japan reported a Q2 GDP that missed estimates, but the revisions lifted Q1 GDP out of contraction  The world's second-largest economy grew by 2.2% at an annualized pace in Q2. While this was a bit disappointing, Q1 was revised from a 0.5% fall in output to a 0.1% expansion. Consumption (1.1%) rebounded (Q1 revised to 0.3% from 0.1%) as did business spending (1.4% vs. -0.3% in Q1, which was originally reported as -0.7%). Net exports were flat after taking 0.5% off Q1 GDP. Inventories, as expected, were unwound. After contributing 0.5% to Q1 GDP, they took 0.4% off Q2 growth. Deflationary forces were ironically still evident. The GDP deflator fell 0.4% year-over-year, almost the same as in Q1 (-0.5%). Separately, Japan reported industrial surged by 9.2% in June, up from the preliminary estimate of 8.9%. It follows a two-month slide (-7.5% in May and -1.5% in April) that seemed to reflect the delayed impact of the lockdowns in China. The US dollar is little changed against the Japanese yen and is trading within the pre-weekend range (~JPY132.90-JPY133.90). It finished last week slightly above JPY133.40 and a higher closer today would be the third gain in a row, the longest advance in over a month. The weakness of Chinese data seemed to take a toll on the Australian dollar, which has been sold to three-day lows in the European morning near $0.7045. It stalled last week near $0.7140 and in front of the 200-day moving average (~$0.7150). A break of $0.7035 could signal a return to $0.7000, and possibly $0.6970. The greenback gapped higher against the Chinese yuan and reached almost CNY6.7690, nearly a two-week high. The pre-weekend high was about CNY6.7465 and today's low is around CNY6.7495. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.7410, a little above the Bloomberg survey median of CNY6.7399. Note that a new US congressional delegation is visiting Taiwan and China has renewed drills around the island. The Taiwan dollar softened a little and traded at a three-day low. Europe Turkey's sovereign debt rating was cut a notch by Moody's to B3 from B2  That is equivalent to B-, a step below Fitch (B) and two below S&P (B+). Moody's did change its outlook to stable from negative. The rating agency cited the deterioration of the current account, which it now sees around 6% of GDP, three times larger than projected before Russia invaded Ukraine. The Turkish lira is the worst performing currency this year, with a 27.5% decline after last year's 45% depreciation. Turkey's two-year yield fell below 20% today for the first time in nine months, helped ostensibly by Russia's recent cash transfer. The dollar is firm against the lira, bumping against TRY17.97. The water level at an important junction on the Rhine River has fallen below the key 30-centimeter threshold (~12 inches) and could remain low through most of the week, according to reports of the latest German government estimate  Separately, Germany announced that its gas storage facility is 75% full, two weeks ahead of plan. The next target is 85% by October 1 and 95% on November 1. Reports from France show its nuclear reactors were operating at 48% of capacity, down from 50% before the weekend. A couple of reactors were shut down for scheduled maintenance on Saturday.  Ahead of Norway' rate decision on Thursday, the government reported a record trade surplus last month  The NOK229 bln (~$23.8 bln). The volume of natural gas exports surged more than four-times from a year earlier. Mainland exports, led by fish and electricity, rose by more than 20%. The value of Norway's electricity exports increased three-fold from a year ago. With rising price pressures (headline CPI rose to 6.8% in July and the underlying rate stands at 4.5%) and strong demand, the central bank is expected to hike the deposit rate by 50 bp to 1.75%. The euro stalled near $1.0370 last week after the softer than expected US CPI  It was pushed through the lows set that day in the European morning to trade below $1.02 for the first time since last Tuesday. There appears to be little support ahead of $1.0160. However, the retreat has extended the intraday momentum indicators. The $1.0220 area may now offer initial resistance. Sterling peaked last week near $1.2275 and eased for the past two sessions before breaking down to $1.2050 today. The intraday momentum indicators are stretched here too. The $1.2100 area may offer a sufficient cap on a bounce. A break of $1.20 could confirm a double top that would project back to the lows. America The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Inflation Reduction Act reduces the budget deficit but will have a negligible effect on inflation  Yet, starting with the ISM gauge of prices paid for services, followed by the CPI, PPI, and import/export prices, the last string of data points came in consistently softer than expected. In addition, anecdotal reports suggest the Big Box stores are cutting prices to reduce inventories. Energy is important for the medium-term trajectory of measured inflation, but the core rate will prove sticky unless shelter cost increases begin to slow. While the Democrats scored two legislative victories with the approval of the Chips and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, the impact on the poll ahead of the November midterm election seems minor at best. Even before the search-and-seizure of documents still in former President Trump's residence, PredictIt.Org "wagers" had turned to favor the Democratic Party holding the Senate but losing the House of Representatives. In terms of the Republican nomination for 2024, it has been back-and-forth over the last few months, and recently Florida Governor DeSantis narrowly pulled ahead of Trump. The two new laws may face international pushback aside from the domestic impact  The EU warned last week that the domestic content requirement to earn subsidies for electric vehicles appears to discriminate against European producers. The Inflation Reduction Act offers $7500 for the purchases of electric cars if the battery is built in North America or if the minerals are mined or recycled there. The EU electric vehicle subsidies are available for domestic and foreign producers alike. On the other hand, the Chips and Science Act offers billions of dollars to attract chip production and design to the US. However, it requires that companies drawing the subsidies could help upgrade China's capacity for a decade. Japan and Taiwan will likely go along. It fits into their domestic political agenda. However, South Korea may be a different kettle of fish. Hong Kong and China together accounted for around 60% of South Korea's chip exports last year. Samsung has one overseas memory chip facility. It is in China and produces about 40% of the Galaxy phones' NAND flash output. Pelosi's apparent farewell trip to Asia, including Taiwan, was not well received in South Korea. President Yoon Suk Yeol did not interrupt his staycation in Seoul to meet the US Speaker. Nor was the foreign minister sent. This is not to cast aspersions on South Korea's commitment to regional security, simply that it is not without limits. Today's economic calendar features the August Empire State manufacturing survey  A small decline is expected. The June TIC data is out as the markets close today. Today is also the anniversary of the US ending Bretton Woods by severing the last links between gold and the dollar in 1971. Canada reports manufacturing sales and wholesale trade, but the most market-sensitive data point may be the existing home sales, which are expected to have declined for the fifth consecutive month. Canada reports July CPI tomorrow (Bloomberg survey median forecast sees headline CPI slowing to 7.6% from 8.1% in June).  The Canadian dollar is under pressure  The US dollar has jumped above CAD1.2900 in Europe after finishing last week near CAD1.2780. Last week's high was set near CAD1.2950, where a $655 mln option is set to expire today. A move above CAD1.2920 could target CAD1.2975-CAD1.3000 over the next day or day. A combination of weaker equities, thin markets, and a short-term market leaning the wrong way after the likely drivers today. The greenback posted its lowest close in two months against the Mexican peso before the weekend near MXN19.85. However, it is rebounding today and testing the MXN20.00 area Initial resistance may be encountered around MXN20.05, but we are looking for a move toward MXN20.20 in the coming days. Mexico's economic calendar is light this week, and the highlight is the June retail sales report at the end of the week.    Disclaimer Source: China Disappoints and Surprises with Rate Cut

Despite headline inflation at a new record high and multiple hawkish comments by European Central Bank members, we are expecting the ECB to ‘only’ hike by 50bp next week. In Canada, with excess demand causing inflation to remain well above target, we expect the Bank of Canada to opt for a 75bp hike on Wednesday In this article US: Focus next week will be Powell's comments on monetary policy UK: New prime minister to face immediate test as energy bills climb Canada: Bank of Canada expected to hike rates by 75bp next week Eurozone: ECB to implement another 50bp hike; 75bp not ruled out US: Focus next week will be Powell's comments on monetary policy Markets continue to favour a 75bp rate hike from the Federal Reserve on 21 September despite the economy having been in a technical recession since the first half of the year. With more than three million jobs added since the start of 2022, consumer spending continuing to grow, and inflation running at more than 8%, it is hard to argue this is a “real recession” with the fall in GDP instead down to volatility in trade and inventory data which continues to swing wildly due to ongoing supply chain issues. Monday is a holiday and the data calendar is light so instead we will be focusing on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at a conference on monetary policy next Thursday. With the Fed’s “quiet period” ahead of the 21 September FOMC meeting set to kick in the following weekend, it will be the last opportunity he has to shift market expectations. We expect him to talk up the need to act forcibly to get a grip on inflation. Moreover, with core inflation set to rise from 5.9% to 6.1% on 13 September, we agree that a 75bp hike is the most likely outcome. UK: New prime minister to face immediate test as energy bills climb The new UK prime minister will finally be announced on Monday, and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is widely expected to beat Rishi Sunak to be Boris Johnson’s successor. Markets will be looking at two key areas in the first few days of the new leader. First, extra government support for households and businesses amid soaring energy costs seems inevitable – the question is what form it will take. Truss has said during her campaign that her preference is for tax cuts, though the sheer scale of the energy bill increase anticipated by early next year suggests this is unlikely to be sufficient. Most households will be paying more than 10% of their income on energy in the 12 months from October, which is when the next big increase in bills kicks in. That suggests blanket support payments (or a price cap of some form), in addition to more targeted measures for low-income households, will be required – as will similar support for smaller businesses. Markets are increasingly assuming this will translate into extra Bank of England rate hikes. We agree with that assessment, even if markets are heavily overestimating the scale of tightening that’s likely to be required. Second, Brexit is expected to come back to the fore. Truss is pushing for the passage of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which would enable ministers to unilaterally override parts of the deal agreed with the EU in 2019, and has already passed through the House of Commons. Press reports also suggest Truss is considering triggering Article 16, which in theory allows either side to take safeguard measures if elements of the Northern Ireland agreement aren’t perceived to be working. This story is not likely to be a fast-moving one, but ultimately a unilateral move by the UK to overwrite parts of the deal could see Brussels suspend the UK-EU trade deal, which it can do with 9-12 months' notice. Canada: Bank of Canada expected to hike rates by 75bp next week Next week will see the Bank of Canada hike rates by 75bp after a 100bp hike in July. Inflation is well above target and the economy is growing strongly, and with the BoC having openly talked of the need to front-load policy tightening we do not expect it to switch back to more modest 50bp incremental changes just yet. Read our full BOC preview Eurozone: ECB to implement another 50bp hike; 75bp not ruled out Even if the ECB doves have been very silent in recent weeks, we expect the ECB to ‘only’ hike by 50bp next week. This would be a compromise, keeping the door open for further rate hikes. A 75bp rise looks like one bridge too far for the doves but cannot be excluded. Further down the road, we can see the ECB hiking again at the October meeting but have difficulties seeing the ECB continue hiking when the eurozone economy is hit by a winter recession. Hiking into a recession is one thing, hiking throughout a recession is another. Read our full ECB preview Key events in developed markets next week Source: Refinitiv, ING   ECB Canada Bank of Canada    Source: https://think.ing.com/articles/key-events-in-developed-markets-next-week-020922/?utm_campaign=September-02_key-events-in-developed-markets-next-week-020922&utm_medium=email&utm_source=emailing_article&M_BT=1124162492 Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Today the market will be calmer as I do not have very important data that could be confusing. Mainly, the eyes of traders will be focused on the results of the ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany and in Euroland as well as the statements of bank criminals in these regions. From the American economy, we are only waiting for the report on Industrial Production. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) events As the day started, events from Australia arrived. The first event took place at 2:05 CET, and it was a speech. The speaker was Michele Bullock, who is an Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Her public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. The RBA minutes provide a detailed record of the discussions held between the RBA’s board members on monetary policy and economic conditions that influenced their decision on adjusting interest rates and/or bond buys, significantly impacting the Australian Dollar (AUD). ZEW Economic Sentiment German ZEW Economic Sentiment According to the report on the six-month economic outlook, the mood is currently pessimistic. Another decline is projected from -61.9 to -65.7. Since March, the indicator has been below 0, which means negative results. In June it looked like the situation could improve, but the next results quickly showed that it was a temporary change and that the downward trend has been consistently maintained since then. Source: investing.com Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment In the euro zone, the outlook is also negative. It is expected to drop from -60.7 to -61.2. Contrary to Germany, the situation in the euro zone deteriorated only in May. The downward trend has continued since then. The higher results than the German index are due to the fact that 19 Member States have an influence on the European one. Source: investing.com Speeches Also today, representatives of the central banks of Europe and Germany will take the floor. The speeches will be held in the evening. The first one at 18:00 CET and the speaker will be a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, Isabel Schnabel. One hour later at 19:00 CET, Joachim Nagel, who is Deutsche Bundesbank President and voting member of the ECB Governing Council, will speak. Canada Housing Starts The annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month will published today. It is expected to drop to 263K from 267.4K. At the beginning of the year, the trend was exemplary, with the highest level recorded in May (287.3K). After this reading, the trend changed to a downward trend. The positive fact is that since the April reading the result was higher than expected. Source: investing.com Canada Foreign Securities Purchases The overall value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreign investors in Canada is expected to increase compared to the previous month. Canada Foreign Securities Purchases is expected to reach 17.32B. Purchase by foreign investors will provide new money to the Canadian economy and will also demonstrate its attractiveness. During the year, the appearance of the indicator varied considerably. At the beginning of the year it was in a downward trend, then the readings for January and February were downward. After these negative results, the highest reading was recorded at 46.94B. This very positive result was followed by a shift to a downward trend. A rebound after a negative reading in June could mean an improvement. US Industrial Production There are no forecasts for the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Observing the last result, the trend is downward, and the last reading was 0.13% lower than the previous reading (3.81%). We can only expect it to decline slightly. Summary 2:05 CET RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks 2:30 CET RBA Meeting Minutes 11:00 CET German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) 11:00 CET ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) 14:15 CET Housing Starts (Sep) 14:30 CET Foreign Securities Purchases (Aug) 15:15 CET US Industrial Production 18:00 CET ECB's Schnabel Speaks 19:00 CET German Buba President Nagel Speaks Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

In the first half of the day, attention will be paid to PMI reports in Europe. In the second half of the day, attention will shift to the results of the North American labor market. Retail Sales The first important data for the market came from Australia at the beginning of the day. the published retail sales report for another consecutive reading remains unchanged at 0.6%. This means that the demand for manufactured goods in this country remains unchanged, which may be due to the economic situation. European Services PMI The largest economies of the euro zone today published their reports for Services PMI. The overall picture is positive. Spain was the first country in the European bloc to provide a positive report. Services PMI indices reached the level of 49.7 and it was an increase against the expected 48.3 and against the previous reading of 48.5. In France, the result was also higher than expected (51.3) and reached the level of 51.7. The current reading is much lower than the previous 52.9. In the largest economy of the European Union, i.e. Germany, this indicator also increased from the level of 45.0 to the level of 46.6. These three positive readings significantly influenced the European Services PMI score which reached 48.6 and was only 0.2 from the previous reading. Only in Italy did this indicator drop. The current reading in this country is at 46.4. UK Construction PMI For the UK, the most important event of today is the Construction PMI report. The reading turned out to be really positive. The result for this sector was higher not only than the forecasts but also higher than the previous result. Construction PMI increased from 52.3 to 53.2 ECB President’s speech At the end of the week, an important speech will be from the European Union. At 10:30 CET, the following spoke: European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. Her comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. As the most important person in a European bank, he can provide very valuable comments and guidelines regarding future actions within the framework of monetary policy. Nonfarm Payrolls The United States will publish data on the number of people employed outside the agricultural sector. This number is expected to reach 200K. This forecast shows that the downward trend continues. After March, the number dropped significantly and maintained this trend until it broke out in August which was a false sign of a change in the trend. After a positive August, the decline will begin again. It may be a positive fact that he achieved better results than expected. Source: investing.com US Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate is expected to reach 3.6%. If the results met the expectations, it would mean an increase of 0.1% and thus a return to the level obtained between April and July. Canada Employment Change Canada also share the results of its job market. The outlook for the Canadian labor market is not very good. Employment Change is expected will reach the level of 10K over the previous 21.1K. The latest reading was a positive reflection from the negative levels from previous periods, but it may turn out to be one-off. Although expectations are above zero, it is not a good picture of the Canadian economy. The unemployment rate can reflect this as well. The unemployment rate is expected to increase by 10 porcet points to 5.3%. Summary 1:30 CET Australia Retail Sales (MoM) 9:15 CET Spanish Services PMI 9:45 CET Italian Services PMI 9:50 CET French Services PMI 9:55 CET German Services PMI 10:00 CET EU Services PMI (Oct) 10:30 CET UK Construction PMI 10:30 CET ECB President Lagarde Speaks 13:30 CET US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) 13:30 CET US Unemployment Rate (Oct) 13:30 CET Canada Employment Change (Oct) Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

It is busy day. Reports will be from many economies CPI from European countries and PPI from America. And also Asian countries shared their GDP and Industrial Production reports. Japan GDP Events on the global market started with the publication of GDP in Japan. The results turned out to be negative. GDP fell from 1.1% to -0.3% quarter on quarter, while GDP y/y fell even more sharply, from 4.6% to -1.2%. Both results were below zero, which proves that the recession is starting in this country. RBA Meeting Minutes From Australia came a summary of the economic situation, i.e. Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board. Members commenced their discussion of international economic developments by observing that inflation abroad. Members also noted that Australian financial markets had followed global trends. Such a summary can help to assess the condition of the country and its sub-sectors and determine next steps. Industrial Production in China and Japan China and Japan have published reports on their Industrial Production. Comparing October this year to October last year, a decrease was recorded in China. The current Industrial Production level was 5.0%, down 1.3% from the previous reading. In Japan there was also a decline, but in Industrial Production M/M. The indicator fell from 3.4% to -1.7%. Which means that the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities has dropped drastically. This is a consequence of high inflation and, as far as China is concerned, the fight against the Covid pandemic. UK data The UK released the reports at 9am CET. Two of them were positive. Only the unemployment rate turned out to be negative as it increased slightly from 3.5% to 3.6%. The change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month fell. U.K. Claimant Count Change dropped from 3.9K to 3.3K. This may turn out to be a slight decrease, but in the face of the forecasts of 17.3K, it turns out to be very optimistic. Average Earnings Index +Bonus, although it fell from 6.1% to 6.0%, is a positive reading as it was expected to fall to 5.9%. Which may mean that despite the forecasts, the decline is milder and personal income growth during the given month was only slightly lower, which is good news for households. CPI Two Western European countries, France and Spain, published data on CPI. In France, CPI y/y increased from 5.0% to 6.2%. The opposite was the case in Spain where consumer inflation fell from 8.9% to 7.3%, moreover meeting expectations. Despite high inflation, which is still higher than the expected level of 2%, these European countries, can be said, are doing well and their economies are not facing recession. Speeches Today's attention-grabbing speeches will be from the German Bundesbank. The first one took place at 10:00 CET, and the speaker was Dr. Sabine Mauderer. The next speeches will take place in the second half of the day at 16:00 CET. The speakers will be: German Bundesbank Vice President Buch and Burkhard Balz ZEW Economic Sentiment Economic sentiment in Germany rose once again. Currently, they have risen to the level of -36.7. Previously, they rose from -61.0 to 59.2. Although ZEW have increased but are still below zero, which means that the general mood is pessimistic US PPI The most important event of the day is the result of inflation from the producer side in the US, i.e. U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI). The previous level of 0.4% is expected to hold. This may mean that from the producers' point of view, the situation in price changes tends to stabilise, which may have a positive impact on the dollar as well as on the US economy in general. Canadian data Canada will release its Manufacturing Sales and Wholesale Sales reports at 15:30 CET. Both are expected to be below zero. Manufacturing Sales is projected to increase from -2.0% to -0.5%. This means that progress in this sector is expected. The wholesale sales level is forecasted at -0.2% vs. the previous 1.4%. Summary 1:50 CET Japan GDP (Q3) 2:30 CET RBA Meeting Minutes 4:00 CET China Industrial Production (YoY) 6:30 CET Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) 9:00 CET UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep) 9:00 CET UK Claimant Count Change (Oct) 9:00 CET UK Unemployment Rate (Sep) 9:45 CET French CPI 10:00 CET German Buba Mauderer Speaks 10:00 CET Spanish CPI 12:00 CET German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 12:00 CET EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 15:30 CET US PPI (MoM) (Oct) 15:30 CET Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Sep) 16:00 CET German Buba Balz Speaks 16:00 CET German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Cities are constantly developing, whether as a result of the actions of authorities, entrepreneurs, or as a result of economic effects, e.g. urbanization. There are cities that are very attractive in every respect and are assessed annually by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). They will also sort out the cities that are the least attractive. Also, before the end of the year, it is worth taking a look at your finances, as well as familiarizing yourself with tax guidelines. In this article: IMF in Argentina The list of Most Liveable Cities Partnership agreement Tips for tax bill The activities of the IMF in Argentina are bearing fruit Argenty not only has a reason to be happy because of winning the World Cup in football, but also an economic one. The macroeconomic policy tightened since July is beginning to bear fruit – inflation is falling, the trade balance is improving, and reserve coverage is gradually strengthening. The Board of the International Monetary Fund today completed the third review of Argentina's 30-month EDF agreement. Argentina's agreement for a 30-month EFF, with access of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to USD 44 billion, or approximately 1,000 percent of the amount), was approved on March 25, 2022. The government's programme, supported by the IMF, provides Argentina with balance-of-payments and budget support assistance, which is linked to the implementation of policies to strengthen public finances, combat persistently high inflation, improve reserve coverage and lay the foundations for sustainable and inclusive growth social. The IMF Executive Board completed today the 3rd review of 🇦🇷 #Argentina’s Extended Fund Facility arrangement, which allows for an immediate disbursement of ~US$6 billion. https://t.co/vkQ4lS9vb5 — IMF (@IMFNews) December 22, 2022 Read next: The GBP/USD Pair Is Trading Just Above 1.20, The Australian Dollar Is The Strongest Today| FXMAG.COM The list of Most Liveable Cities The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) released their Global Liveability Index ranking of the top 10 best and 10 worst places to live in the world in 2022. The index scored 172 cities in five categories: culture, health care, education, infrastructure, and entertainment. Access to health care, safety, infrastructure, access to culture and entertainment, as well as the opportunities offered by the city are important. According to this ranking, European and Canadian cities dominate the list of Most Liveable Cities European and Canadian cities dominate the list of best places to live, according to the Global Liveability Index released by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). https://t.co/uHmyOgVDNG (via @CNBCMakeIt) pic.twitter.com/ZpLXhtabvr — CNBC (@CNBC) December 23, 2022 Credit Agricole and partnership agreement with the Italian Banco BPM In order to become more articulating, the bank undertakes various cooperation. This year there was a lot of turbulence in various banks around the world, as well as a lot of collaborations. On Friday, the French bank Credit Agricole signed a long-term bancassurance partnership agreement with the Italian Banco BPM French bank Credit Agricole strikes bancassurance deal with Italy's Banco BPM https://t.co/4dFD2Ypmkr pic.twitter.com/02kIq8yKmy — Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) December 23, 2022 Tips for tax bill Taxes are very complicated, so it is very important to manage this bill in order not to expose yourself to bigger and unnecessary losses. Tax Day may still be a few months away, but there are many actions you can take before that date to help manage your tax bill. In fact, some jobs shouldn't - or in some cases can't - wait until next year so as not to miss important tax opportunities. Charles Schwab Corp's tips can help you manage your tax bill. The end of the year is a great time for a portfolio review—and to evaluate your overall approach to saving and investing. Consider these five tax-smart steps now. https://t.co/FSoeEaJOHl — Charles Schwab Corp (@CharlesSchwab) December 22, 2022

With inflation data undershooting expectations, and GDP growth stalling, we have much more confidence that the Bank of Canada will leave rates unchanged next week. For the UK, the economy is likely to register an overall first-quarter GDP decline, and we expect a technical recession in the first half of this year In this article US: Job growth set to moderate after debatable January employment surge Canada: Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold UK: GDP still set for first quarter decline, despite likely January rebound Source: Shutterstock   US: Job growth set to moderate after debatable January employment surge Financial markets are fully buying into the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer narrative on interest rates with the US 2Y Treasury yield fast approaching 5% and the 10Y breaking above 4%. Strong activity at the start of the year and a surprise jump in core inflation now means that 25bp rate hikes at the March, May and June FOMC meetings are the minimum expectations from the Federal Reserve. In fact, markets are pricing a 25% chance that the Fed moves by 50bp at the March FOMC meeting. There are two events to watch next week that will have an important bearing on the near-term outlook for monetary policy. Firstly, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be appearing before Congress to present the central bank’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. His testimony will be closely followed for hints as to whether he thinks there should be a re-acceleration in the Fed’s policy tightening or whether having hiked rates so far and so fast that the more modest 25bp incremental moves remain the most sensible course of action to take. He will be appearing before the Senate on Tuesday and the House of Representatives on Wednesday. After that, all eyes will be on the February jobs report after the blowout 517,000 jump in January payrolls caught everyone by surprise. It was 200,000 higher than even the most optimistic forecasts out there and didn’t tally with any of the business surveys such as the ISMs, the ADP jobs report or numbers from the National Federation of Independent Businesses. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, payrolls actually fell 2.5mn, which wasn’t far away from the 2.6mn drop in 2021 and 2.8mn drop in 2022. It is therefore likely that labour hoarding in the form of reduced seasonal layoffs post the holiday season was responsible for the strength while 'generous' seasonal adjustment factors appear to have provided an additional boost to generate the seasonally adjusted 517,000 gain. Significantly, the fact that full-time employment has flat-lined since March 2022, meaning all the job creation has been in part-time positions, was largely overlooked. We have pencilled in a 200,000 jobs gain for February but we have next to no confidence. Any random guess between -500k and +500k would be just as valid as our own guestimate. Business surveys of employment remain soft and job loss announcements are up 440% year-on-year and there is a high chance of revisions to January’s 517,000 jump. Given that pretty much anything could happen in this report, the likelihood of significant market volatility in the hours and potentially days around the jobs report is high. Read next: NAGA analyst on Eurozone inflation: This is likely to trigger a more restrictive monetary policy from the ECB for two reasons | FXMAG.COM Canada: Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold We have much more confidence that the Bank of Canada will leave policy rates unchanged next week. At the 25 January BoC policy meeting, the governing council stated that it expects to “hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases” at upcoming meetings. The data since then has shown inflation undershooting expectations and GDP growth stalling, yet the economy continuing to create jobs. We will get an update on Canadian jobs at the end of the week and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a correction lower given the volatility in the series. Read our full preview here. UK: GDP still set for first quarter decline, despite likely January rebound UK economic output fell sharply in December, and probably only partially rebounded in January. Admittedly, these monthly GDP figures have been hard to read, owing to distortions surrounding both the Queen’s funeral last September and then the World Cup (which threw around consumer services activity). That December plunge, however, means that the economy is likely to register an overall first-quarter GDP decline (our current forecast is for a 0.2% fall). The underlying trend in the economy appears to be one of very gradual contraction, thanks in part to an ongoing downtrend in retail spending. We’re expecting a technical recession in the UK in the first half of this year, albeit one that’s not much to write home about. The fall in wholesale gas prices should help consumer bills fall by the summer, which should limit further damage to consumer spending. Key events in developed markets next week Source: Refinitiv, ING TagsUS United Kingdom Canada Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

Canadian inflation slowed more rapidly than expected in February. With global banking woes adding to downside growth risks and the upcoming budget expected to exercise fiscal restraint, the next move in rates should be downward, with a rate cut possible before the end of the year A food market in Vancouver Slower inflation boosts the case for a 4.5% peak in rates Headline inflation in Canada rose 0.4%MoM, below the 0.5% expected, resulting in the annual rate of consumer price inflation falling sharply to 5.2% from 5.9%. The core measures of inflation broadly performed as expected but are now below 5%YoY. Gasoline prices were the main downward influence, falling 1 %MoM, meaning that the YoY rate for this component is now -4.7%. The main upward influences were clothing prices, which jumped 1.9%MoM after three consecutive monthly declines, while “household operations” saw prices rise 1.1%MoM, but again this follows three months of relatively soft or negative price changes. At the 8 March Bank of Canada policy meeting, officials outlined their view that “weak economic growth for the next couple of quarters” and increasing “competitive pressures” will bear down on inflation and allow it to “come down to around 3% in the middle of this year”. Today’s data should give them more confidence in this happening and reinforce the market view that 4.5%, reached in January, will be the peak for the policy rate. Headline annual inflation rates (YoY%) Source: Macrobond, ING Rates to move lower before year-end Back in January, the BoC indicated that “it expected to hold the policy interest rate at its current level, conditional on economic developments evolving broadly in line with the MPR outlook”. This guidance is likely to remain in place at the next BoC meeting on April 12, with the BoC likely to sound even more cautious in the wake of US and European banking woes. Canadian banks are looking relatively resilient right now, but they too are likely to become increasingly wary given the fallout from what has happened. We should expect to see some modest tightening of lending standards which means access to credit will become more restricted throughout the economy. Read next: Weak Polish retail sales add to gloomy outlook| FXMAG.COM We still think the next move in the BoC policy rate will be downwards and that the first cut is likely to come before the end of the year. Canada’s greater exposure to interest rates rate hikes via a high prevalence of variable rate borrowing means consumer activity should slow through 2023. High household debt levels in Canada - equivalent to more than 180% of disposable income versus 103% in the US – mean that Canada is especially exposed to the risk of a housing market correction in a rising interest rate environment. Falling inflation rates will give the BoC the room to respond with looser monetary policy, especially with the Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland suggesting her upcoming budget will “exercise fiscal restraint” to help in the battle against inflation. Read this article on THINK TagsInterest rates Inflation Canada BoC Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more

The Commodities Feed: China surprises with a cut in short-term rates The Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) estimates that US shale oil production could remain flat in July, with drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) inventory falling further in May. For metals, China’s surprise cut in short-term rates has been supportive of prices as Beijing appears to be taking measures to support economic growth   Energy – US shale production flat In its latest drilling productivity report, the EIA estimates that US shale oil production could be flat at around 9.38MMbbls/d in July compared to an estimated 9.37MMbbls/d in June. The report also showed that drilled but uncompleted wells dropped by 30 over the month of May 2023 to 4,834 wells, the lowest level since May 2014. DUCs have been falling continuously since the start of the year with a year-to-date drop of around 270 wells since the end of 2022, reflecting lower investment in oil exploration for the year. A low inventory of DUCs could also make it challenging for the US to increase production quickly even if prices move up.   Canada is witnessing an increase in wildfires once again which could hurt oil and gas production in the region. The Alberta province reported 76 active wildfires on Monday compared to 71 on the previous Friday, while across Canada, around 431 wildfires were reported of which around 208 were reported to be out of control. Last month, the country faced an oil and gas production disruption of around 200-300Mbbls/d at one point, although some of the oil fields have subsequently restarted production since then. Spreading wildfires could increase disruption again this month as well. The WCS discount over the WTI has dropped back to US$12.9/bbl currently after increasing to around $15/bbl at the start of the month.

In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, decisions made by major central banks have a significant impact on shaping trends. We recently had the opportunity to speak with Matthew Weller, an analyst at StoneX, to gain insights into the current state of affairs.   Read more   The European Central Bank (ECB) recently made headlines with its "Hawkish Hike," raising its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%. This move aims to combat the escalating inflation in the eurozone, marking the eighth consecutive rate hike since July 2022. The ECB's determination to bring inflation down from its current 6.1% to its target of 2% is evident. ECB President Christine Lagarde has hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes at the next meeting in July, emphasizing the need to tackle inflation head-on. Lagarde made it clear that the ECB has no plans to pause its rate hikes. While the ECB focuses on inflation control, other central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, have taken a pause in their rate hikes to assess their impact on economic growth and employment. However, the Fed's projections indicate the potential for two more rate hikes this year. Similarly, central banks in Australia and Canada have resumed rate increases after a temporary pause, underscoring the global challenge of high inflation. The ECB's decision to raise rates comes at a time of economic uncertainty, influenced by factors such as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and potential wage agreements that may further fuel inflationary pressures. The ECB acknowledges that short-term economic growth may remain subdued, but it expects improvements as inflation subsides and supply disruptions ease. While concerns persist regarding the potential negative impact of higher rates on the economy and the risk of a recession, the ECB remains committed to addressing inflation as a top priority   FXMAG.COM: Could you give as your point of view about how the gold prices would behave in next weeks? Is there a chance that there will be new ATH? Gold Consolidates Amid Hawkish Central Bank Actions   With major central banks continuing to tighten monetary policy and inflation still receding (if more gradually than before) gold prices are likely to remain on the back foot in the near term. As of writing, the yellow metal is trading in the mid-$1900s, where it has spent the last three weeks consolidating. Bulls will be looking for a break above the June high near $1990 to signal a potential retest of the record highs near $2075 as we move into July, whereas a confirmed break below $1930 could open the door for a retest of the 200-day EMA near $1900 next.

Canada releases retail sales Fed Chair Powell testifies before a House Committee The Canadian dollar is drifting lower on Wednesday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3222 in Europe, down 0.10%. The US dollar has endured a rough month of June, and the Canadian dollar has climbed an impressive 2.6% during that time.   Markets eye Canadian retail sales Canada’s retail sales have hit a bump in the road. In March, retail sales and core retail sales both contracted for a second straight month. Headline retail sales came in at -1.4% and the core rate fell by 0.3%. The markets are expecting better news in the April report, with a consensus of 0.2% for the headline reading and 0.4% for the core rate. With inflation running at 4.4% and the Bank of Canada continuing to raise interest rates, consumers have been hard hit by the cost-of-living crisis and have cut back on spending. The Bank of Canada needs the economy to cool before it can wrap up the current rate-tightening cycle. The BoC surprised the markets when it raised rates earlier this month, as investors had expected a third-straight pause. The BoC defended its hike by pointing at GDP and inflation, both of which were higher than expected. The labour market remains tight and this has complicated the Bank’s battle with inflation, which could mean a “higher and longer” rate-hike cycle than the BoC had anticipated.  

Slow start following an eventful weekend.    The weekend was eventful with the unexpected rebellion of the Wagner Group against the Kremlin. Yevgeny Prigozhin's men, who fight for Putin in the deadliest battles in Ukraine walked towards Moscow this weekend as Prigozhin accused the Kremlin of not providing enough arms to his troops. But suddenly, Prigozhin called off the attack following an agreement brokered by Belarus and agreed to go into exile. The Kremlin took back control of the situation, but we haven't seen Vladimit Putin, or Prigozhin talk since then. The Wagner incident may have exposed Putin's weakness, and was the most serious threat to his rule in two decades. It could be a turning point in the war in Ukraine. But nothing is more unsure. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, there are no indications that Wagner fighters are retreating from the battlefield.  The first reaction of the financial markets to Wagner's mini coup was relatively calm. Gold for example, which is a good indication of market stress at this kind of moment, remained flat, and even sold into the $1930 level. The dollar-swissy moved little near the 90 cents level. Crude oil was offered into the $70pb level, as nat gas futures jumped more than 2% at the weekly open, and specific stocks like United Co. Rusal International, a Russian aluminum producer that trades in Hong Kong, gapped lower at the open but recovered losses.  Equities in Asia were mostly under pressure from last week's selloff in the US, while US futures ticked higher and are slightly positive at the time of writing.    The Wagner incident will likely remain broadly ignored by investors, unless there are fresh developments that could change the course of the war in Ukraine. Until then, markets will be back to business as usual. There is nothing much on today's economic calendar, but the rest of the week will be busy with a series of inflation reports from Canada, Australia, Europe, the US, and Japan.     Except for Japan, where the Bank of Japan (BoJ) doesn't seem urged to hike the rates, higher-than-expected inflation figures could further fuel the hawkish central bank expectations and add to the weakening appetite in risk assets.     The Federal Reserve (Fed) will carry its annual bank stress test this week, to see how many more rate hikes the baking sector could take in and the potential for changes in capital requirements down the road. The big banks are likely not very vulnerable to higher capital requirements, yet the profitability of the US regional banks could be at jeopardy and that could cause investors to remain skeptical regarding the US banking stocks altogether. Invesco's KBW bank ETF slipped below its 50-DMA, following recovery in May on the back of decidedly aggressive Fed to continue hiking rates, and stricter requirements could further weigh on appetite.    Zooming out, the S&P500 is down by more than 2% since this month's peak, Nasdaq 100 lost more than 3% while Europe's Stoxx 600 dipped 3.70% between mid-June and now on the back of growing signs that the aggressive central bank rate hikes are finally slowing economic activity around the world. A series of PMI data released last Friday showed that activity in euro area's biggest economies fell to a 5-month low as manufacturing contracted faster and services grew slower than expected. The EURUSD tipped a toe below its 50-DMA last Friday but found buyers below this level. Weak data weakens the European Central Bank (ECB) expectations, but that could easily reverse with a strong inflation read given that the ECB is ready to induce more pain on the Eurozone economy to fight inflation.     Across the Channel, the picture isn't necessarily better. Both services and manufacturing came in softer than expected. And despite the positive surprise on the retail sales front, retail sales in Britain slumped more than 2% in May, due to the rising cost of living that led the Brits back from loosening their purse string. One thing though. UK's largest lenders agreed to give borrowers a 12-month grace period if they missed their mortgage payments as a result of whopping costs of keeping their mortgages due to the aggressively rising interest rates. Unless an accident – in real estate for example, the Bank of England (BoE) will continue hiking the rates and reach a peak rate of 6.25% by December.   The only way to slow down the pace of hikes is to find a solution to the sticky inflation problem. And because the BoE has limited influence on prices, Jeremy Hunt will meet industry regulatory this week to discuss how they could prevent companies from taking advantage of inflation and raising prices more than needed, which adds to inflationary pressures through what we call 'greeflation'. But until he finds a solution, the BoE has no choice but to keep hiking and the UK's 2-year gilt yield has further to run higher, whereas the widening gap between the 2 and 10-year yield hints at growing odds of recession in the UK, which should also prevent the pound from gaining strength on the back of hawkish BoE. Cable will more likely end up going back to 1.25, than extending gains to 1.30.       By Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst | Swissquote Bank  

Canada’s inflation rate eases US Durable Goods Orders accelerate The Canadian dollar spiked and gained 50 points after Canada released the May inflation report but has pared these gains. USD/CAD is unchanged at 1.3158.   Canadian inflation heads lower Canada’s inflation rate fell sharply in May to 3.4%, down from 4.4% in April. As expected, much of that decline was due to lower gasoline prices. Still, this is the lowest inflation rate since June 2021.The core rate, which is comprised of three indicators, fell to an average of 3.8% in May, down from 4.2% a month earlier. The decline should please policy makers at the Bank of Canada, as inflation slowly but surely moves closer to the 2% target. The BoC cited the surprise upswing in inflation in April as one reason for its decision to hike rates earlier this month. With headline and core inflation falling in May, will that be enough to prevent another rate increase in July? Not so fast. The BoC has said its rate decisions will be data-dependent, and there is the GDP on Friday and employment next week, both of which will factor in the rate decision. The US released a host of releases today, giving the markets plenty to digest. Durable Goods Orders jumped 1.7% in June, up from an upwardly revised 1.2% in May and crushing the consensus of -1%. The core rate rebounded with a 0.6% gain, up from -0.6% and above the consensus of -0.1%. Later today, the US publishes the Conference Board Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales. Wednesday is a light day on the data calendar, with the Fed will in the spotlight. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a “policy panel” at the ECB Banking Forum in Sintra, Portugal, and investors will be looking for some insights into Fed rate policy. As well, the Fed releases its annual “stress tests” for major lenders, which assess the ability of lenders to survive a severe economic crisis. The stress tests will attract more attention than in previous years, due to the recent banking crisis which saw Silicon Valley Bank and two other banks collapse.   USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.3197 and 1.3254 1.3123 and 1.3066 are providing support  

Agriculture – Canada increases grain planting estimates on supportive weather The latest report from Statistics Canada shows that farmers in the nation are expected to increase the planting of grain in 2023 compared to a year ago following supportive weather conditions, high prices, and stronger demand. Statistics Canada forecast all-wheat plantings to increase to 26.9m acres (+6.7% year-on-year), marginally down from previous estimates of 27m acres but exceeding the market expectation of 26.5m acres. For soybean, the agency revised the planting area projections from 5.5m acres to 5.6m, in line with market expectations. Similarly, corn planting acreage projections were increased from 3.7m acres to 3.8m, up 5.5% YoY. The agency stated that favourable weather conditions in most parts of Canada helped complete the planting on time. The General Statistics Office of Vietnam released trade volume estimates for June which show that coffee exports are seen at 150kt, up 9.1% compared to 137.5kt reported a year ago. However, the coffee export estimates for June are down 9.1% compared to the 165kt shipped in May. In the first half of 2023, coffee exports are projected to fall by 2.2% YoY to 1.02mt. The overall decline in exports could be attributed to severe rains that have battered the country.

Canada’s GDP surprises to the upside US PCE Price Index eases in June ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to contract The Canadian dollar is trading at 1.3259, up 0.07%. Canadian markets are closed for a holiday and I expect USD/CAD movement to be limited. On the economic front, the US releases ISM Manufacturing PMI. The index is projected to tick lower to 46.9 in June, down from 47.0 in May.   Canada’s GDP climbs in May Canada wrapped up the week with a strong GDP report. The economy is estimated to have gained 0.4% in May, after flatlining in April. The Canadian economy continues to surprise with its resilience despite rising interest rates. The Bank of Canada raised rates to 4.75% earlier this month after a five-month pause, arguing that monetary policy was not restrictive enough. The BoC statement pointed at strong consumer spending and higher-than-expected growth as factors in the decision to raise rates. The BoC also expressed concerns that inflation could remain entrenched above the 2% target. The strong GDP report has added fuel to speculation that the BoC will raise rates again on July 12th but there is also concern that higher rates will lead to a recession. Canadian 10-year bonds have fallen further below the 2-year bonds, as the yield curve inversion, a predictor of recession, has become even more pronounced. Inflation has been falling and headline inflation eased to 3.4% in May, down from 4.4% in April. Core inflation also declined to 3.8%, down from 4.2%. The question remains whether inflation, still well above the 2% target, is falling fast enough to prevent another rate hike in July. In the US, there were more signs that inflation is weakening. On Friday, the PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge, declined from 0.4% to 0.1% in June. As well, UoM Inflation Expectations dropped to 3.3% in June, down from 4.2% in May and the lowest since March 2021. Despite these signals that inflation is decelerating, the Fed is widely expected to raise rates at the July meeting.   Canada’s GDP surprises to the upside US PCE Price Index eases in June ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to contract The Canadian dollar is trading at 1.3259, up 0.07%. Canadian markets are closed for a holiday and I expect USD/CAD movement to be limited. On the economic front, the US releases ISM Manufacturing PMI. The index is projected to tick lower to 46.9 in June, down from 47.0 in May. Canada’s GDP climbs in May Canada wrapped up the week with a strong GDP report. The economy is estimated to have gained 0.4% in May, after flatlining in April. The Canadian economy continues to surprise with its resilience despite rising interest rates. The Bank of Canada raised rates to 4.75% earlier this month after a five-month pause, arguing that monetary policy was not restrictive enough. The BoC statement pointed at strong consumer spending and higher-than-expected growth as factors in the decision to raise rates. The BoC also expressed concerns that inflation could remain entrenched above the 2% target. The strong GDP report has added fuel to speculation that the BoC will raise rates again on July 12th but there is also concern that higher rates will lead to a recession. Canadian 10-year bonds have fallen further below the 2-year bonds, as the yield curve inversion, a predictor of recession, has become even more pronounced. Inflation has been falling and headline inflation eased to 3.4% in May, down from 4.4% in April. Core inflation also declined to 3.8%, down from 4.2%. The question remains whether inflation, still well above the 2% target, is falling fast enough to prevent another rate hike in July. In the US, there were more signs that inflation is weakening. On Friday, the PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge, declined from 0.4% to 0.1% in June. As well, UoM Inflation Expectations dropped to 3.3% in June, down from 4.2% in May and the lowest since March 2021. Despite these signals that inflation is decelerating, the Fed is widely expected to raise rates at the July meeting.   USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.3254. Next, there is resistance at 1.3328 1.3175 and 1.3066 are providing support  

Housing cracks...  Note that that's not the case elsewhere. The UK, Hong Kong and Commonwealth countries including Canada, Australia and New Zealand are the most vulnerable to the cracks in the housing market because the share of houses bought on mortgages on shorter-term fixed rates or variable rates are higher. In New Zealand, for example, house prices fell the most in 8 months in June and are down by more than 10% since a year earlier.     Interestingly, the US dollar index remains broadly unresponsive to the Fed's hawkishness, but against the greenback could perform better against the Aussie, Kiwi, sterling, and the Loonie in the second half, because the central banks of all the cited countries will have to sit down and think of broader economic implications of a full-blast housing crisis. History shows that, going back to the 1990s' Japan, where the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised rates to halt the housing bubble, and which then triggered a real estate crisis, the implications were a long and dark tunnel of asset devaluation, reduced consumer spending, bankruptcies, a weakened banking sector, deflation, and long-term economic stagnation. That's certainly why Japan prefers letting inflation run hot, rather than hiking the rates and send the country to another, and a very sticky deflationary phase.    USDJPY capped near 145  And speaking of Japan, the rally in dollar-yen remains capped at 145 level. The only direction that the BoJ could take from here is the hawkish path, therefore turning long yen will, at some point, become a star trade. Yet getting the timing right is crucial and it all depends on a greenlight from the BoJ. 

FX Daily: Dollar late to the party Treasuries are hitting key levels on big US data surprises, but the dollar is not finding real support. The dollar may be mirroring some lingering reluctance to align with the dot plot’s two hikes, but market conditions point to a stronger greenback in the near term, barring a substantial downside surprise in payrolls today. Watch jobs numbers in Canada too.   USD: Surprisingly soft The large and unexpected jump to almost 500k in ADP private payroll numbers yesterday left clear marks across asset classes. Despite some recovery later in the session, US equities took a hit, and European ones closed with a nearly 3.0% loss. Treasuries are now trading around the two key benchmarks: 5.0% for the 2Y and 4.0% for the 10Y after a disastrous session for bonds. This would appear to be the perfect recipe for a substantial dollar rally, which hasn’t materialised however, and we are observing instead some dollar selling this morning. Indeed, the dollar had already moved in advance of yesterday’s release as the minutes had offered clear hawkish hints on Wednesday. Incidentally, markets still appear unconvinced to fully price in two rate hikes by the Fed despite the strong ADP (which arguably aren’t hard data, and have been misleading at times) and ISM services figures. The Fed funds curve has not shifted particularly higher, with the peak rate still seen at 36bp from here, so 14bp short of dot plot projections. In a way, the dollar might still be mirroring that lingering market pricing-dot plot gap. At the same time, the market backdrop does seem to point at dollar strength at this juncture, as we doubt this morning’s mild USD correction will have legs unless US payrolls released later today move in the direction of ADP figures and surprise on the downside. The consensus for the headline jobs number is 230k, but may be higher after the strong ADP read. Unemployment is also expected to tick lower to 3.6% and some focus will, as usual, fall on wage growth. Barring major disappointments, it should not take much to keep the Fed’s hawkish narrative going, and markets should have room to keep inching closer to the pricing in two rate hikes. The path for a more supported dollar in the near term appears to be the most obvious one, in our view, and a return above 104.00 in DXY in the coming days looks likely.

FX Daily: Dollar late to the party Treasuries are hitting key levels on big US data surprises, but the dollar is not finding real support. The dollar may be mirroring some lingering reluctance to align with the dot plot’s two hikes, but market conditions point to a stronger greenback in the near term, barring a substantial downside surprise in payrolls today. Watch jobs numbers in Canada too.   USD: Surprisingly soft The large and unexpected jump to almost 500k in ADP private payroll numbers yesterday left clear marks across asset classes. Despite some recovery later in the session, US equities took a hit, and European ones closed with a nearly 3.0% loss. Treasuries are now trading around the two key benchmarks: 5.0% for the 2Y and 4.0% for the 10Y after a disastrous session for bonds. This would appear to be the perfect recipe for a substantial dollar rally, which hasn’t materialised however, and we are observing instead some dollar selling this morning. Indeed, the dollar had already moved in advance of yesterday’s release as the minutes had offered clear hawkish hints on Wednesday. Incidentally, markets still appear unconvinced to fully price in two rate hikes by the Fed despite the strong ADP (which arguably aren’t hard data, and have been misleading at times) and ISM services figures. The Fed funds curve has not shifted particularly higher, with the peak rate still seen at 36bp from here, so 14bp short of dot plot projections. In a way, the dollar might still be mirroring that lingering market pricing-dot plot gap. At the same time, the market backdrop does seem to point at dollar strength at this juncture, as we doubt this morning’s mild USD correction will have legs unless US payrolls released later today move in the direction of ADP figures and surprise on the downside. The consensus for the headline jobs number is 230k, but may be higher after the strong ADP read. Unemployment is also expected to tick lower to 3.6% and some focus will, as usual, fall on wage growth. Barring major disappointments, it should not take much to keep the Fed’s hawkish narrative going, and markets should have room to keep inching closer to the pricing in two rate hikes. The path for a more supported dollar in the near term appears to be the most obvious one, in our view, and a return above 104.00 in DXY in the coming days looks likely.

CAD: Jobs numbers in focus ahead of BoC meeting Jobs figures will be released in Canada too this afternoon, in what will be the last major data release before next Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting. Back in May, jobs figures surprised on the downside, with a 17k drop in hiring, adding doubts to whether the Bank of Canada (BoC) would deliver a back-to-back rate hike in July. Today, the consensus is expecting a robust headline number (20k), despite a marginal tick-up in unemployment to 5.3%. We are still inclined to think a print-around consensus should be enough to convince the BoC to hike next week, which is around 60% priced in, suggesting some upside risks for CAD (mostly in the crosses, given our view for a USD rebound in the near term).

Canada: central bank policy meeting In Canada, the highlight will be the Bank of Canada policy meeting. It hiked interest rates by 25bp last month having left them untouched since the last hike in January. We don’t see last month’s move as a one-off. To restart the hiking process means that the BoC feels it has unfinished business, and with the jobs market looking tight and inflation running above target we expect the BoC to hike by a further 25bp. Czech Republic: Inflation to fall below 10% for the first time since January last year We expect prices to have risen at a similar pace in June as in May by 0.2% MoM. This should translate into a drop from 11.1% to 9.6% YoY, returning to single-digit territory for the first time since last January. We expect stable food prices and modest growth in fuel prices after the massive drop in the previous month. We should also see small increases in housing (0.2%) and the rest of the consumer basket with no significant driver this time around. Hungary: June monthly budget to accumulate a wider deficit Next week will be rather quiet in Hungary except for Monday. We are going to see the preliminary trade balance data in May. Though export activity has shown some volatility recently, the continued contraction of domestic demand and the demand destruction in energy will help in scaling back import activity. As a result, we see yet another widening of the trade surplus. After a strong May, we see the June monthly budget balance accumulating a wider deficit mainly on the weaker stream of indirect revenues.            

Another season of tightening for the global wheat balance The US wheat balance is expected to loosen over the course of the 2023/24 season due to higher output, largely as a result of winter wheat. The USDA expects domestic wheat output to increase by 74m bushels to 1,739m bushels. As a result, ending stock estimates for the season have been raised from 562m bushels to 592m bushels. This is above the roughly 565m bushels the market was expecting. The global wheat balance was more constructive with ending stock estimates for 2023/24 lowered from 270.7mt to 266.5mt, which is also lower than the more than 270mt the market was expecting. If realised, this would be the fourth consecutive year of declines in stocks. The revision lower was driven by expectations of lower output from the EU, Canada and Argentina, whilst demand is also expected to edge higher.   Wheat supply/demand balance

Canada’s inflation expected to ease US retail sales projected to improve The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Tuesday, trading at 1.3204. USD/CAD should show some life in the North American session, with the release of Canadian inflation and US retail sales.     Will Canada’s core inflation fall? Canada releases the June inflation report later today, and the Bank of Canada will be hoping for good news. On an annualized basis, headline inflation is expected to drop to 3.0%, down from 3.4% in June, while the core rate is projected to fall from 3.7% to 3.5%. On a monthly basis, the markets are expecting mixed news. CPI is expected to tick lower to 0.3%, down from 0.4% but core CPI is projected to rise from 0.4% to 0.5%. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 0.25% last week, which brought the benchmark cash rate to 5.0%. The BoC will have some time to monitor the economy, with the next rate meeting on September 6th. The BoC would like to take a pause in September but may have to wait until later in the year if the economy does not show further signs of cooling before the September meeting.   US retail sales expected to climb The US economy is by and large in good shape, despite aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve in order to curb high inflation. A key driver behind the economy’s strong performance has been consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity. The US releases the June retail sales report later today, with expectations that consumers remain in a spending mood. The consensus estimate for headline retail sales is 0.5% m/m, up from 0.3%, and the core rate is expected to rise 0.3%, up from 0.1%. The retail sales release is unlikely to change expectations that the Fed will raise rates at the July 27th meeting, with a 96% chance of a hike, according to the CME Tool Watch. However, an unexpected reading could lead to a repricing of a September rate hike, which has just a 14% probability. . USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.3205 and 1.3318 1.3106 and 1.3049 are providing support    

Canada’s retail sales expected to slow Former Chair Bernanke says the July hike may be the last increase The Canadian dollar is trading quietly on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3157, down 0.09%. It has been a busy week in the currency markets, with the US dollar rebounding and posting strong gains against the major currencies. The notable exception has been the Canadian dollar, which has held its own against the greenback this week. We could see some movement from USD/CAD in the North American session when Canada releases retail sales for May.   Will Canada’s retail sales point to a softer economy? We’ll get a snapshot of consumer spending later on Friday, as Canada releases the May retail sales report. The markets are bracing for a slowdown in May after an impressive April release. The consensus estimate for retail sales is 0.5% in May, down from 1.1% in April. The core rate is expected to fall to 0.3%, compared to 1.3%. If the estimates prove to be accurate, it would point to the economy cooling down and provide support for the Bank of Canada to take a pause at the next meeting in September.   Is the Fed finally done? The Federal Reserve meets on July 26th and investors have priced in a 0.25% hike as a near certainty. September is less clear, but the markets have priced another hike at just 16%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Are the markets being too dovish? Fed members have said that inflation isn’t falling fast enough, which could mean that another hike is coming after July. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke appeared to side with the market view, saying on Thursday that the July hike could be the final rate increase in the current tightening cycle. Bernanke said that the economy would slow further before the 2% inflation target was reached, but he expected any recession to be mild.   USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.3205 and 1.3318 1.3106 and 1.2993 are providing support  

Canada added a negligible 1700 jobs in July US nonfarm payrolls almost unchanged at 187,000 The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3360, up 0.06%. Canadian and US job numbers were soft today, but the Canadian dollar’s reaction has been muted. Canada’s economy sheds jobs After a stellar job report in June, the July numbers were dreadful. Canada’s economy shed 6,400 jobs in July, compared to a 59, 900 gain in June. Full time employment added a negligible 1,700 jobs, following a massive 109,600 in June. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.5%, up from 5.4%. Perhaps the most interesting data was wage growth, which jumped 5% y/y in June, climbing from 3.9% in May. The rise is indicative of a tight labour market and will complicate the Bank of Canada’s fight to bring inflation down to the 2% target. US nonfarm payrolls slips below 200K It was deja vous all over again, as nonfarm payrolls failed to follow the ADP employment report with a massive gain. In June, a huge ADP reading fuelled speculation that nonfarm payrolls would also surge, and the same happened this week. Both times, nonfarm payrolls headed lower, a reminder that ADP is not a reliable precursor to the nonfarm payrolls report.   July nonfarm payrolls dipped to 187,000, very close to June reading of 185,000 (downwardly revised from 209,000). This marks the lowest level since December 2020. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%, down from 3.6%. Wage growth stayed steady at 4.4%, above the consensus estimate of 4.2%. What’s interesting and perhaps frustrating for the Fed, is that the jobs report is sending contradictory signals about the strength of the labour market. Job growth is falling, but the unemployment rate has dropped and wage growth remains strong. With different metrics in the jobs report telling a different story, it will be difficult for the Fed to rely on this employment report as it determines its path for future rate decisions. . USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.3324 and 1.3394 1.3223 and 1.3182 are providing support    

USD/JPY declines on expectations BOJ will let rates rise quickly Fed rate cut bets fully priced in by March meeting; implied rate stands at 5.123% Fed’s Bostic noted US employment gains are slowing in an orderly manner, no need for tightening   NFP Day  The US economy should continue to gradually weaken as the labor market softens.  This labor market report showed 187,000 jobs were added to the economy, while wage pressures heated up, and as the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%.  This NFP report should support the argument that the Fed is done raising rates.  Fed speak post payrolls poured cold water over the hot bond market selloff.  Fed’s Bostic said that the job gains are slowing orderly  and that they have no reason to hike again. Fed’s Goolsbee added that they are getting positive numbers with inflation and that the job market is cooling a little bit.  The risks for more Fed tightening are going away, but that could change with next Thursday’s inflation report.   USD/JPY     Price action on the USD/JPY daily chart show that the potential bearish ABCD pattern that formed a couple days ago is tentatively respecting trendline support at the 141.50 region.  If bearish momentum remains in place downside could target the 140.00 zone.  With the BOJ’s minor tweak to YCC in place and steady US data that supports the economy is weakening, the dollar-yen could see bearishness remain intact.  To the upside, 144.00 remains key resistance     Apple disappoints and Amazon Delivers The last two major tech giant earnings delivered diverging stories.  Amazon crushed it in the second quarter, while delivering financial discipline with lower spending.  The outlook impressed for both ecommerce and their cloud services, while the lower headcount made this a perfect earnings report. Apple told a different story than Amazon as their outlook devices weakened, which is prompting concerns that this might be as good as it gets over the short-term for share prices.  A weakening consumer and a similar fourth quarter is not inspiring investors.  

Canada lost 6,400 jobs in July as the unemployment rate rose for a third straight month Canadian wage pressures jump to 5.0%, which might not let policymakers signal that the peak in rates is in place Crude prices rally for a sixth straight week on OPEC+ determination to keep oil market tight   USD/CAD The past few weeks have not been kind to the Canadian dollar, but that could be changing.  The general rise in the dollar has stemmed from concerns over the US debt situation.  With both the Fed and BOC in similar positions when it comes to their respective tightening cycles, the Canadian dollar seems like it might be better positioned over the short-term as traders unwind their US dollar bets.  The USD/CAD shows the correlation with rising oil prices has not provided much support to the loonie, but that could be changing here.  If bearish momentum accelerates, further downside could target the 1.3300 handle.  The Canadian dollar could remain in oversold territory a while longer, which could support a further decline towards the 1.3250 region.  To the upside, the 1.3400 level provides major resistance.   Oil Crude prices are rising as the dollar drops following a mixed NFP report and as OPEC+ remains committed to keeping the oil market tight.  Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend a unilateral 1-million barrel oil cut did not surprise anyone. Energy traders however wanted to see if Russia would extend their export cut pledge and they did. Oil is at a 3-month high and starting to attract more buyers.  The crude price rally could continue since the US economy remains resilient and if China’s data next week confirms that part of the world’s crude demand is growing. The $85 level should provide key resistance for WTI crude, but if that doesn’t slow the rally, every trader will have their eyes on the $90 level.   Gold Gold prices are rallying as the bond market selloff ends following a mixed NFP report that did not derail some expectations that the Fed is still probably done raising rates.  This jobs day still suggests a soft landing is obtainable but if wage growth remains strong over the next couple of months that could create some problems.  Higher rates for longer is still an environment that gold can thrive in, especially if Wall Street becomes fixated over the deficit

FX Daily: The indestructible dollar Today's US Labor Day holiday means that it has been a quiet start to the week in the world of FX. The dollar remains near its highs despite Friday's US NFP jobs report showing a jobs market moving better into balance and wages softening. That probably owes to poor growth prospects overseas. Second-tier US data releases look unlikely to hit the dollar too hard.   USD: Little reason to offload dollar positions The dollar has had a good couple of months. It has been buoyed by domestic strength in the US economy and souring sentiment in key trading partners such as Europe and China. The source of that strong domestic demand in the US has been a tight labour market, which has powered consumption. Despite US wage growth softening in August and the unemployment rate finally climbing, US Treasury yields actually rose on Friday and the dollar strengthened. Driving that move may have been the rise in the participation rate with people returning to the workforce. This suggests that the narrative may have moved on from the disinflation debate towards the extension of employment, consumption and domestic demand.  This week's US data calendar looks unlikely to open a decisive new chapter in this narrative – although in the past, the release of the ISM services index (remember that sub-50 reading at the start of the year?) has moved markets. That index is released on Wednesday. There are a few Federal Reserve speakers this week, but market expectations that Fed rates have peaked look set, as do views of a modest 100bp of Fed easing next year (we look for 200bp+). We see little to challenge a strong dollar this week and could see DXY edging up to the 104.50/70 area.  Elsewhere in the world, the central bank policy focus is on the likes of Australia, Canada, Poland, Chile, and Israel. No change is expected in most, although Poland should be starting its easing cycle this week, and Chile is expected to follow up its 100bp cut in July with another large rate cut.

Canada’s GDP expected to ease in Q2 US nonfarm employment payrolls expected to dip to 177,000 The Canadian dollar is calm in the European session, trading at 1.3500, down 0.07%. I expect to see stronger movement from USD/CAD in the North American session, as Canada releases second-quarter GDP and the US publishes the July employment report. Canada’s GDP expected to slow in Q2 Canada usually releases employment reports on the same day as the US, but Canada’s July jobs report won’t be released until next week. Instead, today we have Canada’s GDP, a key release, along with the US employment release. Canada’s economy rebounded in the first quarter, as GDP rose 0.8% q/q. This beat the consensus estimate of 0.4% and added support to the case for the Bank of Canada raising rates at the September 6th meeting. However, today’s GDP report could chill rate hike expectations if the economy took a step backward in the second quarter. The consensus estimate for Q2 GDP stands at 0.3% q/q, which would indicate weak economic growth. If GDP is stronger than expected, the odds of a rate hike will likely increase. The GDP report is the final key release out of Canada prior to the rate meeting, which adds significance to the GDP release. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on the July US employment report, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls. On Wednesday, ADP Employment Change fell sharply to 177,000, down from a revised 371,000. The nonfarm payroll report is expected to decline slightly to 170,000, compared to 187,000 in the previous reading.   If nonfarm payrolls is within expectations, it will mark the third straight month of gains below 200,000, a clear sign that the US economy is cooling. This would not only cement an expected pause by the Federal Reserve next week but would also bolster the case for the Fed to hold rates for the next few months and possibly into 2024. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD tested resistance at 1.3523 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.3580 1.3444 and 1.3377 are providing support  

Canadian growth shocker confirms central bank to pause Canada’s economy surprisingly contracted in the second quarter with consumer spending slowing sharply and residential investment collapsing. Together with a cooling labour market, this should ease the Bank of Canada's inflation fears and lead to a no-change decision on 6 Sep. Still, the USD/CAD rally appears overdone, and we expect a correction soon.   We expect a pause this week Ahead of last Friday’s data, analysts were favouring a no-change outcome with just three out of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a 25bp interest rate increase while overnight index swaps suggested the market saw only a 15% chance of a hike. This was despite headline inflation surprising to the upside in July and the BoC signalling at the July policy meeting that it continued to believe inflation would only return to 2% by mid-2025 and that the door remained open to further hikes. The GDP numbers and the manufacturing PMI that we got on Friday have only cemented the no-change expectation. Markets are now pricing little more than a 1% chance of a hike after the economy contracted 0.2% annualised in 2Q versus expectations of a 1.2% increase while 1Q GDP growth was revised down from 3.1% to 2.6%. Consumer spending rose just 1% annualised while residential investment fell 8.2% to post a fifth consecutive substantial contraction. Net trade was also a drag, but there was at least a decent non-residential investment growth figure of 10.3%. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.0 from 49.6 to post its fourth consecutive sub-50 (contraction) reading.   Canadian unemployment and inflation   Given the economy lost jobs in July we completely agree that the BoC will leave rates unchanged this month after having resumed hikes in June and July following a pause since January. Nonetheless, the BoC is likely to leave this as a hawkish hold given that policymakers are yet to be fully convinced they’ve done enough to return inflation sustainably to 2% given the recent stickiness seen. At a bare minimum, we will get a messaging of rates staying “higher for longer”, but given the perilous state of the Canadian property market and signs of spreading weakness globally, we do expect rate cuts to come onto the agenda by March next year.   CAD weakness not justified USD/CAD has rallied 3% since the start of August, broadly in line with the general strengthening in the US dollar, but in contrast with short-term USD:CAD rate differential dynamics. While USD/CAD rose in the past month from 1.32 to 1.36, the USD:CAD two-year swap rate differential was relatively stable in the -50/-40bp range throughout August, and only tightened to -30/-35bp after Canada’s poor 2Q GDP report.   Our short-term valuation model, which includes swap rate differentials as an endogenous variable, shows that USD/CAD is trading more than 2% over its fair value, a rather unusual mis-valuation level for the pair. Incidentally, CFTC data shows that speculators have moved back into bearish positioning on the loonie in recent weeks, with net-shorts now amounting to 9% of open interest.   USD/CAD is overvalued   We don’t expect the BoC to turn the tide for CAD, but the recent weakness in the loonie appears overdone, and technical indicators suggest a rebound is on the cards. We still expect USD/CAD to end the year close to 1.30 as CAD should benefit from the most attractive risk-adjusted carry in the G10, even without any more hikes by the BoC.    

Canada’s GDP contracts in second quarter US nonfarm payrolls, wages point to weak US labour market The Canadian dollar is unchanged early in Monday’s North American session, trading at 1.3594. Canada’s GDP unexpectedly soft in Q2 The Canadian dollar posted gains throughout last week but surrendered all of those gains on Friday after second-quarter GDP was softer than expected. Canada’s economy contracted in the second quarter by 0.2% y/y, much weaker than the consensus of a 1.2% gain. The Bank of Canada was also taken by surprise, as it had projected a gain of 1.5%. The economy has slowed sharply since the first quarter, which showed GDP at a revised gain of 2.6%. The BoC’s rate hikes continue to filter throughout the economy, which may be in a slight recession, as June GDP contracted by 0.2% and July is expected around zero. The GDP report was the last major domestic release before the BoC meeting on Wednesday. The soft data has cemented a pause from the BoC, after two consecutive meetings in which the BoC raised rates by a quarter-point but said that the decisions were a close call between a hike and a hold. The BoC odds for a hold have jumped to 97%, up from 78% prior to the GDP release. With a pause a virtual certainty, investors’ focus will be on the rate statement. Goldman Sachs is projecting a pause and one final rate hike in October.     In the US, the August employment report pointed to a cooling labour market. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 187,000, the third straight release below 200,00. Wage growth fell to 0.2% in August, down from 0.4% in July and below the consensus of 0.3%. The weak jobs report raised the odds of a Fed hold at the September meeting to 93% according to the FedWatch tool, up sharply from 78% just a week ago. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is putting pressure on support at 1.3573. Below, there is support at 1.3509 1.3657 and 1.3721 are the next resistance lines  

Canada expected to have shed 6,400 jobs BoC’s Macklem says rate increases may be needed to lower inflation The Canadian dollar is steady on Friday in what should be a busy day. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3670, down 0.12%. Canada releases the August job report later today, with the markets braced for a decrease of 6,400 in employment. The US dollar has been on a tear against the major currencies since mid-July. The Canadian dollar has slumped, losing about 450 basis points during that span. The Canadian economy hasn’t been able to keep pace with its southern neighbor, and that was made painfully clear as GDP contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter, below expectations. The deterioration in economic growth is a result of a weak global economy as well as the Bank of Canada’s steep tightening cycle. After back-t0-back increases, the BoC opted to pause at this week’s meeting and held the benchmark cash rate at 5.0%. Governor Macklem likes to use the term “conditional pause”, which means that a break from rate hikes will depend on economic growth and inflation levels.   At this week’s meeting, the BoC’s rate statement was hawkish, warning that inflation was too high and not falling fast enough. This was a signal that the door remained open to interest rate increases. Macklem was more explicit on Thursday, stating that further rate hikes might be needed to lower inflation and warning that persistently high inflation would be worse than high borrowing costs. The markets are more dovish about the BoC’s rate path, given that the economy is cooling and the central bank will be wary about too much tightening which could tip the economy into a recession. The markets have priced in a 14% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting.   USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3657. The next resistance line is 1.3721 1.3573 and 1.3509 are providing support  

Lower yields tighten US soybean market For the US, the USDA slashed its 2023/24 soybean production estimates from 4,205 million bushels to 4,146 million bushels on the back of revisions lower in yields, whilst acreage was largely flat. This lower supply was partly offset by downward revisions in demand with export estimates cut by 35 million bushels, whilst domestic demand estimates were lowered by 10m bushels. As a result, 2023/24 US ending stock estimates were reduced from 245 million bushels to 220 million bushels. However, it was still higher than the roughly 213 million bushels the market was expecting. For the global soybean balance, the USDA revised down 2023/24 global ending stocks marginally from 119.4mt to 119.3mt. The market was expecting a number of a little over 118mt.   Soybean supply/demand balance   Unfavourable weather weighs on wheat supply The global wheat balance continues to tighten, with 2023/24 ending stocks lowered by 7mt to 258.6mt, which is quite some distance below just over 264mt as expected by the market. This tightening was driven by revisions lower in supply with 2023/24 global output cut by 6mt. Lower output is largely driven by Australia (-3mt), Canada (-2mt), Argentina (-1mt) and the EU (-1mt), primarily due to unfavourable weather conditions. These reductions were partly offset by expectations for higher Ukrainian output. The main concern for Ukrainian supply is whether it will all be able to make it onto global markets. For the US market, the agency made no changes to the wheat balance.   Wheat supply/demand balance

Canada’s inflation rate falls to 3.1% Fed minutes indicate rates to remain restrictive The Canadian dollar continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3723, up 0.14%. Canada’s inflation declines to 3.1% Canada’s inflation rate fell to 3.1% y/y in October, down sharply from 3.8% in September and below the consensus estimate of 3.2%. Monthly, inflation edged up to 0.1%, up from -0.1% in September and matching the consensus estimate. Two key core rate gauges dropped to an average of 3.55%, down from 3.8% in September. The drop in inflation is an encouraging sign for Bank of Canada policy makers that its rate policy is working, as inflation continues to head lower. For the markets, the decline will support expectations that the current tightening cycle is done and that the central bank will trim rates in mid-2024. The inflation print has likely closed the door on further hikes, but don’t expect to hear that from anyone at the BoC, which doesn’t want to give a false impression that inflation has been beaten, as there is still more work to do to reach the 2% target. Fed preaches caution At the November meeting, Fed Chair Powell said in his post-meeting remarks that the Fed would have to exercise caution. Tuesday’s FOMC minutes echoed Powell’s comments and also mentioned the need to “proceed carefully”. The minutes gave no indication that members had discussed rate cuts, noting that members felt that the current policy was restrictive and pushing inflation lower. The markets have a different take and have priced in a rate cut sometime in mid-2024, with inflation falling and the US economy continuing to lose steam. The Fed will likely continue to sound hawkish and warn that rate hikes are still on the table, but is anyone listening?   USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3741. Above, there is resistance at 1.3776 There is support at 1.3660 and 1.3628  

FX Daily: Euro remains the weakest link The dollar starts the week in mixed fashion. USD/JPY is trading at a new corrective low, while EUR/USD continues to lick its wounds after a torrid session on Friday. The highlight of this week's data calendar will be the November US jobs report on Friday; there are also central bank policy meetings in Canada and Poland USD: Powell speech provides some support The dollar turned a little higher on Friday - largely led by the drop in European currencies after investors latched onto some dovish comments from ECB officials. Also supporting the dollar later in the day, however, were comments from Fed Chair, Jay Powell.  He was much more equivocal than his colleague, Christopher Waller, who earlier in the week had signalled that the inflation battle was nearly won. Indeed, Powell's comments left in the prospects of further rate hikes - which very few in the market believe will materialise.  Against this backdrop will the dollar trade on US data this week. Given the blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting on December 13th, there will be no Fed speakers this week. Instead, the focus will be on some quite important data. Beyond today's Durable Goods Orders, tomorrow sees the release of US services ISM and the JOLTS job opening data. Do job openings correct back lower and suggest a better balance in the US labour market - a mild dollar negative? Wednesday then sees the discredited ADP jobs data ahead of Thursday's initial claims. But the main event of the week is the November NFP report on Friday. Consensus expects a modest +180k, an unchanged unemployment rate and steady average earnings. Given a propensity for investors to put money to work outside of the dollar, we think a consensus outcome would be a mild dollar negative. We think it would really have to be a strong number to put the idea of another Fed rate hike back on the table. We favour DXY trading a 103-104 range through the week and suspect that investors will have a bias to sell in the 104.00/104.20 area.

This article goes over different tools and indicators covering EURCAD, in some cases, cross-pairs can provide trade setups of a different nature as the US Dollar is partially taken out of the equation. Trading in financial markets requires an overview of different types of tools and the same applies to forex trading. Talking points Inflation Rate Overview – European Union and Canada Daily Chart Technical analysis Sentiment Indicators: Commitment of Traders report, and OANDA’s order book. Relative Rotation Graph Inflation Rate Overview – European Union and Canada   Source: Bloomberg Terminal   Inflation Rates globally are declining faster than expected and as global Central banks continue to tread carefully, traders continue to speculate on Central banks’ moves and are sometimes overwhelmed by conflicting central bankers’ comments or analyst’s opinions. Many Market participants are convinced that the recent decline in inflation suggests that Central banks should consider rate cuts, but Central banks still have concerns about inflation returning in any form. The latest CPI report from the EU shows inflation continues to decline reaching 2.4%, close to The European Central Bank (ECB) target of 2%. The current CPI may suggest that the ECB can hold interest rates at its current level but doesn’t warrant any rate cuts. ECB Nagel commented this morning that “Inflation risks are skewed to the upside”. The next CPI release is scheduled for December 19th, 2023, please check the economic calendar and your local time. In Canada, it’s a slightly different story, although the inflation rate is also declining the same as it is globally, it is declining at a slower pace than the EU. The inflation rate currently stands at 3.1%, down from its highs of 8.0% seen in June 2022. Daily Chart Technical analysis   Source: Tradingview.com   EURCAD price broke and closed below an intermediate trendline identified on the above daily timeframe chart, with no pullback to retest the broken level so far. The broken level was also a confluence of Support represented by 3 commonly used Moving average periods, EMA9, MA,9, MA21, and the monthly pivot point at 1.4800 Applying the weekly Stochastic indicator onto the Daily timeframe to smooth the readings suggests that EURCAD may be overbought and shows that %K just crossed below %D along with the break below the intermediate trendline mentioned above. Applying Daily RSI with its default period of 14 shows that RSI is so far in line with price action, however, it is currently neutral near level 50. MACD line crossed below its signal line and the Histogram is also turning bearish.       Sentiment Indicators: Commitment of Traders report, and OANDA’s order book Source: Tradingview.com   The Commitment of Traders report offers insights about positioning changes in the futures market, although delayed, it still helps as a sentiment tool in a trader’s arsenal. Comparing Position levels on the latest COT report shows that Large Speculators on both currencies are favoring long positions, however, it also suggests that the Canadian Dollar is closer to its extreme than the Euro, thus a higher probability of Sentiment change. The above chart is for EURUSD and USDCAD side by side with the COT report applied to both. (COT for Canadian Dollar is inverted, CADUSD) OANDA’s Orderbook Indicator   Source: OANDA.com   Another sentiment tool is the OANDA Orderbook Indicator, the above image reflects an aggregate view of pending entry orders on EURCAD for OANDA’s clients, the data falls under the Retail Traders category. The above image suggests that Retail traders are looking to buy as the price falls and sell as it rises, this is the typical retail trader sentiment and needs to be thought of carefully as Retail Traders can sometimes be in the opposite direction in trendy markets. The order book also reflects price levels that have the highest number of pending orders, these levels can be critical as the price continues to move regardless of direction. It is also important to note that the order book percentages include exit orders such as Stops and limits, we can continue to follow up on position percentage changes. Relative Rotation Graph   Source: Optuma.com   The Relative Rotation graph RRG (A measurement for Momentum and Relative strength) on the daily time frame shows EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD are currently in the Leading Quadrant, with EURUSD leading the pack and CADUSD attempting to catch up from the Improving quadrant. The arrow direction for all pairs except CAD is so far pointing south towards the weakening quadrant.  

Canada’s job growth expected to expand by 15,000 US ISM Manufacturing PMI projected to accelerate to 47.6 The Canadian dollar continues to gain ground against a slumping US dollar. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3529, down 0.23%. The Canadian currency is poised to post a third straight winning week against the greenback and soared 2.25% in November. It is a busy Friday, with Canada releasing the employment report, the US publishing the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed Chair Powell speaking at an event in Atlanta. Canada’s labour market has softened but remains in good shape and has shown expansion for three straight months. The economy is expected to have added 15,000 jobs in November, slightly lower than the 17,500 reading in October. The market consensus for the unemployment rate stands at 5.8%, compared to 5.7% in October. Canada’s GDP posts negative growth This week’s GDP report was another reminder that the economy remains weak. Third-quarter GDP declined by 0.3% q/q, below the revised o.3% gain in Q2 and the first decline since the second quarter of 2021. High interest rates have cooled the economy and exports were down in the third quarter as global demand remains weak. On an annualized basis, GDP slid 1.1% in the third quarter, compared to a revised 1.4% gain in Q2 and shy of the market consensus of 0.2%. The US wraps up the week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector has been in a prolonged slump and the PMI has indicated contraction for twelve consecutive months. The PMI is expected to improve to 47.6 in November, compared to 46.7 in October. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.   Investors will be listening closely to Jerome Powell’s remarks today, looking for hints about upcoming rate decisions. Powell has stuck to his script of a ‘higher for longer’ rate policy, but the markets have priced in a rate cut in May at 84%. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD tested resistance at 1.3564 in the Asian session. Above, there is resistance at 1.3665 1.3494 and 1.3434 are providing support