Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

Currency Speculators raise their bullish bets for Canadian Dollar to 40-week high

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising of bullish bets in the Canadian ‘Loonie’ dollar currency futures contracts. CAD speculators raised their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, CAD bets have improved by a total of +26,166 contracts, going from -4,940 net positions on March 22nd to +21,226 net positions this week. These gains have brought this week’s speculator level to the most bullish position since July 13th of 2021, a span of forty weeks.

This recent improvement in Loonie sentiment has been helped out by the hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC recently pushed its key interest rate higher by 50 basis points on April 13th and has in the past few days hinted that more interest rate rises were to come. The recent inflation numbers out of Canada were above expectations (6.7 percent) and according to Bloomberg, market participants have pushed their odds to 100 percent for another 50 basis point hike in June.

Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (2,943 contracts), Japanese yen (4,640 contracts), Swiss franc (2,492 contracts), New Zealand dollar (654 contracts), Canadian dollar (9,068 contracts)and the Mexican peso (6,704 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the Euro (-7,759 contracts), Brazil real (-1,557 contracts), Australian dollar (-122 contracts), Bitcoin (-361 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-5,860 contracts).


Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 54,524 77 32,580 82 -35,893 15 3,313 53
EUR 675,939 72 31,301 45 -49,726 62 18,425 5
GBP 249,529 70 -58,914 32 72,889 73 -13,975 27
JPY 251,291 90 -107,187 3 129,842 99 -22,655 7
CHF 44,269 20 -11,450 50 23,051 57 -11,601 29
CAD 153,302 32 21,226 68 -39,338 31 18,112 66
AUD 147,309 43 -28,837 58 20,800 34 8,037 72
NZD 41,098 26 365 72 503 31 -868 42
MXN 165,403 33 21,664 37 -26,214 62 4,550 62
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
BRL 70,553 68 44,572 94 -47,063 5 2,491 94
Bitcoin 11,276 61 -194 90 -175 0 369 21

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 85.6 3.3 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.9 69.1 3.5
– Net Position: 32,580 -35,893 3,313
– Gross Longs: 46,685 1,778 5,198
– Gross Shorts: 14,105 37,671 1,885
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 82.0 15.0 52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 3.3 -5.8

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.7 53.7 11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 61.0 8.7
– Net Position: 31,301 -49,726 18,425
– Gross Longs: 221,003 362,930 76,939
– Gross Shorts: 189,702 412,656 58,514
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.6 61.9 4.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 9.7 -10.9

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 74.6 8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.4 45.4 14.4
– Net Position: -58,914 72,889 -13,975
– Gross Longs: 36,811 186,134 21,987
– Gross Shorts: 95,725 113,245 35,962
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.6 72.8 26.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.4 28.1 -2.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -107,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.1 86.0 8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.7 34.3 17.3
– Net Position: -107,187 129,842 -22,655
– Gross Longs: 12,723 216,101 20,761
– Gross Shorts: 119,910 86,259 43,416
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.9 99.0 7.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -31.6 25.9 -3.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,942 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.6 71.7 21.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 19.6 47.9
– Net Position: -11,450 23,051 -11,601
– Gross Longs: 2,900 31,735 9,599
– Gross Shorts: 14,350 8,684 21,200
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.7 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 56.8 29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.0 1.3 1.8

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 45.0 24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 70.7 12.8
– Net Position: 21,226 -39,338 18,112
– Gross Longs: 44,063 68,989 37,784
– Gross Shorts: 22,837 108,327 19,672
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 31.1 65.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.4 -17.2 20.4

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.6 53.8 19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 39.6 13.7
– Net Position: -28,837 20,800 8,037
– Gross Longs: 39,201 79,208 28,257
– Gross Shorts: 68,038 58,408 20,220
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.1 34.4 72.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 45.8 -42.8 19.6

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 365 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.4 45.9 6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.5 44.6 8.9
– Net Position: 365 503 -868
– Gross Longs: 19,081 18,853 2,797
– Gross Shorts: 18,716 18,350 3,665
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 31.2 41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.4 -20.2 4.0

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,960 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.6 50.0 4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.5 65.8 1.9
– Net Position: 21,664 -26,214 4,550
– Gross Longs: 73,710 82,643 7,701
– Gross Shorts: 52,046 108,857 3,151
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.6 61.9 62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.4 12.1 10.1

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 44,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.2 17.6 6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.1 84.3 2.5
– Net Position: 44,572 -47,063 2,491
– Gross Longs: 53,790 12,399 4,272
– Gross Shorts: 9,218 59,462 1,781
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.2 5.4 94.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 5.4 5.0

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.3 3.6 10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.0 5.2 7.0
– Net Position: -194 -175 369
– Gross Longs: 8,263 408 1,155
– Gross Shorts: 8,457 583 786
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.2 27.4 21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 19.8 4.8

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Invest Macro

Invest Macro

InvestMacro is an independent investing media website. Started in 2007 as a simple trading blog (as CountingPips.com) focused on global major currencies, InvestMacro has since steadily expanded and evolved. Our mission is to provide independent coverage of the relevant financial markets for global macro investors. All information and opinions are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.