CAD: Jobs numbers in focus ahead of BoC meeting
Jobs figures will be released in Canada too this afternoon, in what will be the last major data release before next Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting. Back in May, jobs figures surprised on the downside, with a 17k drop in hiring, adding doubts to whether the Bank of Canada (BoC) would deliver a back-to-back rate hike in July.
Today, the consensus is expecting a robust headline number (20k), despite a marginal tick-up in unemployment to 5.3%. We are still inclined to think a print-around consensus should be enough to convince the BoC to hike next week, which is around 60% priced in, suggesting some upside risks for CAD (mostly in the crosses, given our view for a USD rebound in the near term).