We think markets are right to price in more Bank of England easing, but the upcoming budget on 26 November can still bring both bullish and bearish surprises. Meanwhile, concerns around the US job market are offsetting the positive impact of a likely government reopening on risk sentiment
Third-quarter GDP growth disappointed at 4.0% YoY, dragged down by weak investment and softer government spending, while exports provided temporary support. We downgrade our 2025 growth forecast to 4.7% (from 5.2%) as sentiment weakens and tariff headwinds loom, reinforcing our call for a 25bp central bank rate cut in December
The slew of post-meeting ECB speakers has added little to the policy narrative. The Governing Council is broadly on the same page with the rates view, and the feeling is that some substantial data surprises are now needed to create new division among policymakers.
Lingering trade-induced uncertainty continues to weigh on Canadian activity and carries risks of broader jobs market deterioration. We expect the BoC to overlook higher-than-expected jobs and inflation data and cut by 25bp on 29 October. The door may be left open to more easing, and CAD should remain vulnerable against most of the G10
Headline inflation has increased to its highest level since the spring, but other German macro data published today suggests that inflation will not be the economy's biggest problem in the months ahead
The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its cash rate steady at 3.6%, in line with expectations. The cautious stance reflects concern over rising headline CPI inflation. As it stands, we think the probability of a rate cut at the November meeting has meaningfully diminished. The Aussie dollar remains supported
The Dutch central bank may start sending out more approvals for the transitioning of Dutch pension funds from a defined benefit to a defined contribution model this week. But with the 1 January transition date fast approaching, we may also start hearing about more delays. Meanwhile, a US government shutdown could weigh on economic sentiment
You may be familiar with the hit teatime game show Pointless. And it's got me thinking. After a surprise rate cut from Sweden's Riksbank and, as the Fed kicks off its own easing cycle, will any of it make a difference? It's complicated, of course, but hopefully entertaining. Fingers on buzzers as we look ahead to another jackpot week in financial markets
Have you been wondering what emoji best describes this week's Fed meeting? James Smith is doing his best to win over Gen-Z again this week, as he looks back at a curious US interest rate decision and weighs up Europe's fiscal woes. All that and more in our guide to the week ahead
We expect the Riksbank to keep rates on hold at 2.0% on 23 September, in line with expectations. Markets are pricing in a less than one-in-three chance of a cut. Rate projections may well be kept unchanged but could still suggest some possibility of another cut. Our call for now is for no more easing. Sweden's krona has room to appreciate into year-end
Inflation in the eurozone ticked up from 2% to 2.1% in August on the back of slowing energy price declines. Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.3%, confirming a rather stable inflation climate despite ample risks to the outlook
The number of unemployed people has increased above the three-million mark for the first time since 2015, providing further evidence that a long period of economic stagnation eventually takes a toll on the labour market
In August, France’s business climate index remained stuck at 96 for the third consecutive month. While stable, it continues to hover below its long-term average, a sign that the economy is holding its breath rather than gaining momentum
Earlier in August, we published our monthly FX update. That was centred around the view that the last line of defence for the dollar – a resilient jobs market – had started to capitulate with large payrolls revisions. In this note, we discuss our latest thinking and why we are looking for 1.20+ levels through 2026
The great-and-the-good of the American central banking world are off to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference. And for Chair Jerome Powell, his appearance could hardly come at a more challenging moment. James Smith looks at the key questions facing the embattled Fed boss as financial markets brace for another fiery week to come
