Combine rebounding investment with continued strength in private spending and you have a recipe for stronger economic growth. October's set of data suggests that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is likely to beat the 3.7% year-on-year rate posted in the third. At the same time, inflation is declining, which paves the way for another rate cut in December
Same old story: Germany’s longest stagnation has now been confirmed. The economy will remain stuck until fiscal stimulus begins to take effecta
Japan's stimulus package targets inflation stabilisation, strengthening defence and diplomacy, and sustainable growth. It should spur short-term growth and reduce inflation, but may put pressure on JGBs. The BoJ's policy normalisation will likely continue, though it faces challenges and may proceed at a slower pace
French business confidence and PMI indicators edged higher in November, driven by renewed optimism in the service sector. This rebound could support growth in the coming months, despite more mixed signals from industry
The Bank of Korea is expected to hold the rates steady. Meanwhile, data highlights include Chinese industrial profits, Tokyo inflation, Korean and Taiwanese industrial production and Indian GDP
Third-quarter GDP growth disappointed at 4.0% YoY, dragged down by weak investment and softer government spending, while exports provided temporary support. We downgrade our 2025 growth forecast to 4.7% (from 5.2%) as sentiment weakens and tariff headwinds loom, reinforcing our call for a 25bp central bank rate cut in December
In our latest update, we reassess our Hungarian economic and market forecasts at a time when we are still waiting for the end of stagnation and hoping for better days to come. The economy is starving for those order book fillings, and also a big dollop of extra confidence
The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the US industrial sector remains under pressure from weak growth and tariff-related uncertainty. The one consolation is that inflation pressures appear to be easing, but the Fed hawks will want to see broader evidence of this before backing a December rate cut
Conditions in manufacturing have deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month, which can undoubtedly be viewed as a negative signal for the economy when looking ahead. Although below the expansionary threshold, the PMI is nowhere near the depressed 2023 levels. Should the hard times continue, an adverse effect on growth in 2026 is a possibility
South Korean exports increased in October despite fewer working days due to the Chuseok holiday. US tariffs had a clear negative effect, but robust semiconductor and vessel exports offset the impact. With the trade agreement concluded, improved export conditions are expected to support growth in 2026
Spain’s economy grew by 0.6% over the third quarter, following a robust second quarter, as external demand weakened. With signs of cooling in industrial activity and tourism, growth is expected to normalise over the coming quarters and into 2026
Italy's October batch of confidence data marks an improvement in all monitored sectors but services. This is good news for Italian growth perspectives in the fourth quarter
The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark rate steady at 2.5%, signaling a shift toward a less dovish policy stance. For the second consecutive meeting, one member dissented, while a growing number prioritised financial market stability over economic growth
Some of the best performing currencies in the CEE region have started to hand back some of their gains as markets question whether central banks will have to turn more dovish. That's particularly been the case in Hungary. However, our call is that rate cuts are delayed, and the forint can continue to enjoy carry trade interest. CZK and ZAR should also do well
August’s Italian production numbers suggest that a hoped-for timid improvement in the third quarter has not materialised. While some caveats should apply when dealing with summertime data, it would seem the onus now lies with a growth in services
In a dovish turn, the Philippines’ central Bank, the BSP, has cut rates by 25bp to 4.75%, citing softening growth and subdued inflation. Infrastructure spending concerns and corruption scandals add downside risks to our 2026 GDP outlook. The chances of a final 25bp rate cut in December have increased meaningfully
The CIS region remains resilient amid global uncertainty, with growth outperforming expectations despite persistent inflation and external pressures. Fundamental improvements and ratings upgrades are supportive of sovereign credit in the region, while we expect further steady issuance
Romanian consumers have recently hit the brakes, signalling increased caution. While some of the August slowdown can be attributed to pre-emptive spending ahead of tax hikes, that doesn’t fully explain the drop. We do not expect this steep decline to become the norm, but caution is likely to persist into year-end and early 2026
Despite inflation nearing double digits and real rates staying negative, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) is expected to maintain its cautious stance at its 8 October meeting, prioritising stability amid weakening consumption and uncertain growth prospects
The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its cash rate steady at 3.6%, in line with expectations. The cautious stance reflects concern over rising headline CPI inflation. As it stands, we think the probability of a rate cut at the November meeting has meaningfully diminished. The Aussie dollar remains supported
Sentiment in Dutch commercial services and retail cooled in September, according to fresh data from the European Commission. While the mood isn’t gloomy, it does echo our view that growth remains stuck below potential – for now
The economy remains on track to see a small improvement in GDP growth in the third quarter as uncertainty fades and big shocks to trade have been avoided
Last week ended on a positive note despite fresh tariff threats on pharma, trucks and kitchen cabinets. PCE data coming in line with expectations helped keep investor mood sweet after a week of hesitation. The S&P 500 rebounded after a three-day retreat, the Stoxx 600 held above its 50-DMA, and even the pharma-heavy SMI index bounced from August lows – confirming that trade news has become usual bad news.
The US Dollar has been rallying steadily since its pre-FOMC lows, with Powell’s not-so-dovish speech last week marking the start of a V-shape reversal from the sharp pre-meeting downfall.
Following a second quarter still heavily impacted by the introduction of new US tariffs, early data for the third quarter points to a very mild improvement, though sectoral contributions remain uneven. Today’s confidence indicators for September appear to support this view
August’s PMI remained in the contraction zone, as supply chain issues dampened output. However, new orders increased, and confidence remained upbeat. The Czech economy appears poised to hum along smoothly, with no need for loose monetary policy
The just-released minutes of the ECB’s July meeting show that the central bank entered the summer break with a strong feeling that the job was done and that the bar had been set high for another rate cut. Still, this wait-and-see stance had at least a touch of an easing bias
August confidence indicators paint a picture of economic inertia, with growth momentum still concentrated in the services sector
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 5.00%, signalling a neutral stance amid stable inflation and slowing – but resilient – growth. While the easing cycle is nearing its end, one final rate cut this year remains likely, given our view of weaker GDP growth in the second half of the year
The Bank of Korea held policy rates at 2.5%, with a dissenting vote raising expectations for an October rate cut. The BoK’s cautious growth view also suggests more rate cuts may be on the way in 2026
Hopes for a swift resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have proven vain. Discussions between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy yielded no breakthrough, with market expectations for a 2025 ceasefire dropping from around 40% to below 25%.
South Korea’s latest fiscal stimulus contributed to improved consumer sentiment and greater growth momentum. But these effects may prove temporary. Even so, the Bank of Korea will stand pat later this week, as it focuses more on housing prices.
Retail sales in July rose by 4.8%YoY in Poland, rebounding from June’s weaker 2.2% figure. The June dip was a one-off weakness and most likely reflected a temporary shift in consumer spending from goods to services, driven by increased travel and hospitality outlays during the Corpus Christi long weekend
Japan’s July consumer price inflation data was broadly in line with the market consensus. Headline inflation slowed thanks to falling energy and utility prices. Yet, core prices remain sticky and well above 3%. We believe core price trends will prompt the BoJ to hike rates as early as October
Bank Indonesia (BI) delivered a surprise second consecutive rate cut, signalling a clear focus on growth despite recent strong data. With inflation still below target and US Federal Reserve easing expected from September, we now see BI front-loading its final 25bp cut to the fourth quarter of this
Today’s flash GDP data has confirmed our forecast for the second quarter, with annual growth continuing to expand at a modest 0.3% pace. We don’t expect major improvements at this stage, with risks actually tilted to the downside, and we continue to expect a 0.3% advance for the full year in 2025
Poland’s external current account surplus in June was a positive surprise, as it was also driven by a positive balance in merchandise trade. One data reading does not necessarily signal a new trend – but it may suggest a change in underlying macro developments, especially softer domestic demanda
At its last meeting in January, Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% but reiterated the guidance that “the policy rate will likely be reduced in March”. Since then, spot activity data remained subdued, but the labour market showed signs of resilience and business expectations turned more positive.
