Euro rate markets seem to react very little to downside data surprises and geopolitical headlines, which does raise concerns over complacency. Nonetheless, this trend may persist for now as attention shifts to upcoming key calendar events, particularly US data releases
Eurozone optimism has pushed the German two-year yield to the brink of pre-'Liberation Day' levels. Just shy of 2%, the balance of risk is towards near-term lower yields again. US rates are quick to fade the dovish move from last Friday, and we think the back end of the curve will want to test higher still
FX Daily: Data holds the key to FOMC balance. We expect the dollar to become more sensitive to data in the near term, as markets seek a catalyst to double down on recent dovish Fed speculation. Employment figures may be subject to closer examination, with the rationale that a softer jobs market can convert a few hawks after mild inflation failed to do so. EUR/USD continues to face upside risks
