FX Daily: Hard to get excited by the same story
Fed minutes once again reiterated the cautious approach to interest rates but for the US dollar, this seems to be a non-event. Expect trading volumes to fall away into Thursday's US Thanksgiving holiday, and look out for US jobless claims today instead of tomorrow. Meanwhile, the NBH delivered another 75bp rate cut, which is good news for FX.
USD: Consolidation continues
Federal Reserve minutes once again reiterated the cautious approach to interest rates, which did not excite the markets much. US equity markets broke a five-day winning streak and Treasuries ended a little lower again. For EUR/USD, this seems to be more of a non-event. Looking ahead, expect trading volumes to fall away into tomorrow’s US Thanksgiving holiday but the holiday means we get to see US initial jobless claims earlier than usual. Here, continued claims are expected to climb, reflecting a softening labour market. Today’s US calendar also sees durable goods orders and the latest readings on US consumer confidence - the latter is expected to stabilise at the lowest levels since May. In terms of the bigger picture, we tend to think it is a little too early to expect the dollar bear trend to run a lot further just yet. That will require some substantially weaker US data or the Fed formally taking an additional rate hike off the table.
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