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AUDJPY longs work if you are still holding them hitting target & only resistance for today at 8280/8300. Therefore a break above 8320 is a buy signal targeting 8365/75. A buying opportunity again at 8220/10. Stop below 8190. A break below 8190 is a sell signal targeting 8160/55, perhaps as far as 8100/8090. EURJPY straight through minor resistance at 130.60/70 to the next target of 130.95/99 with a test of trend line resistance at 131.20/30 now likely. Shorts need stops above 131.45. A break higher is a buy signal - try to jump in and hold long in to the end of the week. A buying opportunity again at 130.10/129.90 with stop below 129.80. EURUSD longs at the buying opportunity at 1.1400/1.1380 target strong resistance at 1.1455/65. This held quite well on the last test. Further gains are likely eventually towards 1.1500/10 & 1.1560/70 A buying opportunity at 1.1400/1.1380 - stop below 1.1365. If this trade fails, I fear we will remain stuck in a sideways trend. GBPUSD shorts at the 200 day moving average at 1.3735/40 worked in severely overbought conditions to test support at 1.3670/60. Further losses today meet strong support at 1.3620/00 with a good chance of a low for the day. Longs need stops below 1.3585. Next target & support at 1.3535/25. 200 day moving average resistance again at 1.3735/40 Shorts need stops above 1.3755 this week. A break higher is the next buy signal targeting 1.3780 & 1.3805/15. Expect some resistance at the October high at 1.3830/35. Emini S&P got close to a test of the neck line at 4590/80 on Friday but bounced from 4606. If tested this week, longs need stops below 4570. A break lower is a significant sell signal. Minor resistance at 4670/80 & again at 4695/4705. Further gains can retest last week's high of 4735/40. Next target is 4750/60. Above 4765 can retest the all time high at 4800/08. Nasdaq perhaps building a minor negative trend in January perhaps. Holding quite important resistance at 15700/750 is negative for today initially targeting 15550/500. If we continue lower look for 15350/320 before a retest of last week's low at 15170/150. Further losses test the 200 day moving average at 15000/14950. First resistance at 15700/750 - shorts need stops above 15800. A break higher targets more minor resistance at 16000/16100. A break above here is a buy signal & we could even retest the all time high. Emini Dow Jones I am waiting for a clear pattern of trend to develop. For now, minor resistance at 35800/850 tested as I write over night but if we continue higher look for a test of minor resistance at 36000/36050. Further gains can target 36300/350. Holding minor resistance at 35800/850 can target 35750/700 before a retest of this week's low at 35540/520. A break lower this week targets support at the 100 day moving average at 35350/330. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

S&P 500 gave up opening gains that could have lasted longer – but the bear is still strong, and didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Defeated during the first hour, the sellers couldn‘t make much progress, and credit markets confirm the grim picture. There is a but, though – quality debt instruments turned higher, and maintained much of their intraday gains.And that could be a sign – in spite of the bearish onslaught driving the buyers back to the basement before the closing bell – that more buying would materialize to close this week, with consequences for S&P 500 as well. I would simply have preferred to see rising yields once again, that would be a great catalyst of further stock market selling. Now, the wisest course of action looks to be waiting for the upcoming upswing (one that didn‘t develop during the Asian session really), to get exhausted.Remember my yesterday‘s words:(…) The rising yields are all about betting on a really, really hawkish Fed – just how far are the calls for not 25, but 50bp hike this Mar? Inflation is still resilient (of course) but all it takes is some more hawkish statements that wouldn‘t venture out of the latest narrative line.Anyway, the markets aren‘t drinking the kool-aid – the yield curve continues flattening, which means the bets on Fed‘s misstep are on. True, the tightening moves have been quite finely telegraphed, but the markets didn‘t buy it, and were focused on the Santa Claus (liquidity-facilitated) rally instead – therefore, my Dec 20 warning is on. The clock to adding zero fresh liquidity, and potentially even not rolling over maturing securities (as early as Mar?) is ticking.And the run to commodities goes on, with $85 crude oil not even needing fresh conflict in Eastern Europe – the demand almost at pre-corona levels leaving supply and stockpiles in the dust, is fit for the job.With SPX short profits off the table, crude oil consolidating, and cryptos having second thoughts about the decline continuation, it‘s been precious metals that stole the spotlight yesterday – really great moves across the board to enjoy!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 buyers are nowhere to be seen – what kind of reflexive rebound would we get next? The odds aren‘t arrayed for it to be reaching very high – yields are catching up even with financials...Credit MarketsHYG is likely to pause a little next, and the degree of its move relative to the quality debt instruments, would be telling. Rates are though going to keep rising, so keep looking for a temporary HYG stabilization only.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver keep catching fire, and are slowly breaking out of the unpleasantly long consolidation. The strongly bullish undertones are playing out nicely – these aren‘t yet the true celebrations.Crude OilCrude oil looks like it could pause a little here – the stellar run (by no means over yet) is attracting selling interest. The buyers are likely to pause for a moment over the next few days.CopperCopper is paring back on the missed opportunity to catch up – the red metal will be dragged higher alongside the other commodities, and isn‘t yet offering signs of true, outperforming strength.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum really are setting up a little breather, but I‘m not looking for bullish miracles to happen. Still, the buying interest was there yesterday, and that would influence the entry to the coming week (bullishly).SummaryS&P 500 upswing turned into a dead cat bounce pretty fast, and while we may see another attempt by the bulls, I think it would be rather short-lived. Think lasting a couple of days only. Not until there is a change in the credit markets, have the stock market bulls snowball‘s chance in hell. Commodities and especially precious metals, are well placed to keep reaping the rewards – just as I had written a week ago. For now, it‘s fun to be riding the short side in S&P 500 judiciously, and the time for another position opening, looks slowly but surely approaching. Let the great profits grow elsewhere in the meantime.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Gold soared as investors got scared by reports of an allegedly impending military conflict. Was it worth reacting sharply to geopolitical factors? Gold has been performing quite nicely in January. As the chart below shows, its price increased from $1,806 at the end of December to around $1,820 this week, strengthening its position above $1,800. Yesterday (January 19, 2022), gold prices went sharply higher, jumping above $1,840, as one can see in the chart below. What happened? Investors got scared of the Russian bear and inflationary hydra. President Biden predicted that Russia would move into Ukraine. The threat of invasion and renewal of a conflict weakened risk appetite among investors. To complete the geopolitical picture, this week, North Korea fired missiles again (on Monday, the country conducted its fourth missile test of the year), while terrorists attacked the United Arab Emirates with drones. The heightened risk aversion could spur some demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. The yellow metal tends to benefit from greater uncertainty. However, investors should remember that geopolitical risks usually cause only a short-lived reaction. Investors also recalled the ongoing global inflationary crisis. Some news helped them wake up. In the U.K., inflation surged 5.4% in December, the highest since March 1992. Meanwhile, in Canada, inflation jumped 4.8%, also the fastest pace in 30 years. Additionally, crude oil prices have jumped to around $86.5 per barrel, the highest value since 2014, as the chart below shows. The timing couldn’t be worse, as inflation is already elevated, while higher oil implies higher CPI in the future. Gold should, therefore, welcome the rise in oil prices. On the other hand, it could prompt the Fed to react more forcefully and aggressively to tighten its monetary policy.   Implications for Gold What does the recent mini-rally imply for the gold market? Well, it’s never a good idea to draw far-reaching conclusions from short-term moves, especially those caused by geopolitical factors. Risk-offs and risk-on sentiments come and go. However, let’s do justice to gold. It hit a two-months high, more and more boldly settling in above $1,800. All this happened despite rising bond yields. As the chart below shows, the long-term real interest rates have increased from about -1.0% at the end of 2021 to about -0.6%. Gold’s resilience in the face of rising interest rates is praiseworthy. Having said that, investors shouldn’t forget that 2022 will be a year of the Fed’s tightening cycle, rising interest rates, and also a certain moderation in inflation. All these factors could be important headwinds for gold this year. However, investors may underestimate how the Fed’s monetary policy will impact market conditions. After all, the Fed’s hawkish stance also entails some risks for the financial markets and the overall economy. Practically, each tightening cycle in the past has led to an economic crisis. As a reminder, after four hikes in 2018, the Fed had to reverse its stance and cut them in 2019. The Fed signaled not only a few hikes this year, but also a reduction of its balance sheet. Given the enormous indebtedness of the economy and Wall Street’s addiction to easy money, it might be too much to swallow. Importantly, when the Fed is focused on fighting inflation, its ability to help the markets will be limited. I thought that such worries would arise later this year, supporting gold, but maybe the gold market has already started to price in the possibility of economic turbulence triggered by the Fed’s tightening cycle. Anyway, next week, the FOMC will gather for the first time in 2022, and it could be an important, insightful event for the gold market. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1351 The EU December Consumer Price Index was confirmed at 5% YoY, as previously estimated. US Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly jumped to 286K in the week ended January 7. EUR/USD bounces from its intraday low but maintains a neutral stance in the near term. The EUR/USD pair eased from an intraday peak of 1.1368, trading in the 1.1350 area heading into the US opening. The greenback trades mixed across the FX board, weaker against commodity-linked currencies but grinding higher vs its European rivals. Financial markets are quieter on Thursday, with European stocks struggling for direction but stuck around their opening levels. The EU published the December Consumer Price Index, which was confirmed at 5% YoY, while the core reading met the preliminary estimate posting 2.6%. Also, the European Central Bank posted the Accounts of its latest meeting, which showed that policymakers are aware of a possible "higher for longer" inflation scenario. The US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 7, which unexpectedly jumped to 286K, much worse than the 220K expected. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey surged from 15.4 to 23.2 in January, beating expectations. The news put some pressure on the greenback, now recovering from its daily low at 1.1330. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair could resume its decline in the upcoming sessions, as there are no technical signs of buying interest. The daily chart shows that the pair is incapable of advancing beyond a flat 20 SMA for a second consecutive day, while the Momentum indicator heads lower within negative levels. Additionally, the RSI is stable, although around 49. Meanwhile, the pair keeps trading between Fibonacci levels, with immediate support at 1.1305, the 23.6% retracement of the 1.1691/1.1185 slide. The 38.2% retracement is located at 1.1385, providing strong resistance since mid-November. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair maintains a neutral-to-bearish stance, trading below a firmly bearish 20 SMA but between directionless 100 and 200 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within negative levels, the Momentum advancing but the RSI flat at around 44. Support levels: 1.1305 1.1260 1.1220 Resistance levels: 1.1385 1.1440 1.1485

XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold surged over geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine. Following a three-week-long sideways grind, the break above the triple top at 1830 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side. 1850 is the next level to clear, which would lead to November’s peak at 1877. The RSI has shot into the overbought area, and some profit-taking could briefly drive the price lower. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to join in. 1820 near the base of the recent rally is a key support in this case. AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar climbed back after the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in December. A surge above 0.7270 was the bulls’ attempt to initiate a reversal. As sellers covered their bets, the way might be open for a meaningful rebound. The follow-up correction met solid buying interest at 0.7170. Sentiment would remain upbeat as long as price action stays above this key support. 0.7290 is an important hurdle and its breach could trigger a runaway rally towards 0.7420. US 30 tests major support The Dow Jones 30 retreats as traders take profit ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. The index has given up all its gains from the late December rally and fell through the daily support at 34700. This bearish breakout could extend losses to the psychological level of 34000, a critical floor to prevent a deeper correction in the medium-term. The RSI’s oversold situation may attract some buying interest. Nonetheless, the bulls will need to lift offers around 35500 in a show of force, in order to turn sentiment around.

GameStop stock fails to ignite despite the gaming sector being in play. GameStop is a bystander retailer, while the big activity is game makers. GME stock remains bearish in our view despite a mid-week short squeeze attempt. GameStop (GME) stock surged in early January but has since slumped consistently. At least some volatility returned to the name. GameStop was the original meme stock but has been suffering of late as investors turn their backs on high growth and high-risk names. GameStop Stock News A pop of 7% on January 7 has been about as good as it gets so far this year for GameStop (GME) holders as the stock exhibits more signs of dwindling interest in the meme stock space. The Wall Street Journal did report on January 7 that GameStop was entering the NFT and cryptocurrency market. This has echoes of another meme stock, AMC. It may smack of desperation or even bad timing given the crypto and NFT craze has also retreated in line with meme stocks. Or it may be a shrewd move. Time will tell, but so far the shares have not given the news much traction. Interest did spike in GME on the back of the mega-deal from Microsoft (MSFT) offering up $69 billion in cash to buy Activision (ATVI), but GameStop is merely a powerless bystander in the acquisition fervor sweeping the gaming sector. GameStop (GME) jumped to the top of WallStreetBets mentions, but this has not seen the correlated share price uptick. In fact, GME shares are down 17% in a week. That takes losses so far for 2022 to nearly 30%. One year on and it does not look like history is going to repeat itself. Video game sales data out yesterday was not exactly comforting with the figure in December down 1% following November's 10% fall. GameStop Stock Forecast The chart is still highly bearish, which was triggered after the double-top formation. This played out and reached our $150 target and then some. Now GME has broken the $118 level, which brings $86 firmly into focus as the next major target. Obviously, $100 along the way will generate headlines, but this is purely psychological. We also note the volume gap from $110 to $70 that could accelerate the move. Bearish unless $160 is broken. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

PRESS RELEASE Warsaw, 17.01.2022 The growing interest in domestic tourism is conducive to the development of accommodation facilities in resorts. Interesting city hotels are also opening. The current year should bring stabilization in the hotel industry as more countries move from treating the covid as pandemic to endemic - Speaking of the current shape of the hotel sector, it is difficult to treat the market as a whole. Today we are dealing with two markets. The first of them - the city hotel market, considered safer before the pandemic, due to a more balanced structure of guests, as well as less seasonality than the second hotel market, that is tourist hotels. Currently, it is the latter market that is doing much better and is recovering from losses. City hotels, on the other hand, largely focus on maintaining the current profitability, however, in the fall, there was a recovery in demand from business guests and MICE. The results that the industry finished 2021 with are far from those before the market changes, but last year we could already see a recovery in demand and average prices on the market - says Katarzyna Tencza, Associate Director Investment & Hospitality at Walter Herz. Although there were fewer foreign guests, the hunger for travel and the uncertainty associated with overseas travel meant that in July and August last year, about 190 thousand more Poles stayed in hotels than in the summer of 2019. Demand accumulated in the summer as a result of, among others, the restrictions that hotels were subject to in the winter and spring months. The summer season in the resorts was very successful. The beginning of autumn in the resorts brought a sustained high demand for leisure and group stays. In November and December, the situation was clearly worse, with the exception of the holiday season, which was another opportunity for hotels in holiday destinations to increase revenues. - Good results obtained by resort facilities during the summer do not mean that the entire year 2021 can be considered successful by the industry. The turnover in the entire sector was lower than that achieved before the pandemic. The year 2022 should bring a continuation of the recovery in demand in the city markets - says Katarzyna Tencza. Ownership changes Despite the difficulties faced by hotels, so far we have not dealt with many transactions on our market. Especially that the largest market players mostly refrain from acquiring assets in this segment. The mass bankruptcies which were to happen in 2021, did not take place. Hotels for sale are not very attractive to investors due to location or other factors. The transactions took place mainly on regional markets. For example, NK Rysy company purchased Hotel Rysy, located in the very center of Zakopane. The unfinished Ewerdin hotel in Swinoujscie was also sold. In the second half of the year, a 100-room hotel located in the center of Cracow was also sold. We could also observe transactions concerning hotel facilities intended for other functions. Orbis has signed a preliminary agreement for the sale of the Ibis Hotel in Kielce, which is to be transformed into a different function facility. The deserted Astoria hotel in Klodzko was sold to a developer from Cracow, who after the renovation, will probably offer retail and service space. Polkomtel bought the Ossa hotel located in Ossa near Rawa Mazowiecka, in order to build a rehabilitation center. Polski Holding Hotelowy is also active on the market, which carries out the process of consolidation of facilities providing hotel services, owned by state-owned companies. PHH concluded a conditional agreement for the purchase of Geovita SA, part of the Polish Oil and Gas Mining Group, which manages several recreational facilities throughout Poland. The holding has also signed a conditional agreement with PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna for the purchase of ten hotels and facilities belonging to Elbest, one of its companies that owns hotels, including in Krynica, MiÄ™dzyzdroje, Myczkowce nad Solina as well as facilities in Krasnobrod and Szklarska Poreba. Polski Holding Hotelowy has also signed conditional agreements for the purchase of a controlling stake in Interferie and shares in Interferie Medical SPA, companies belonging to the KGHM Group, thanks to which it will receive another six properties. New, high-class facilities in resorts In 2021, holiday resorts expanded their offer of high-quality hotel facilities. The recent openings are, of course, the result of investment processes initiated before the market turmoil. Tourist accommodation resources in the country increased, among others, thanks to the opening of the Radisson Resort hotel in Kolobrzeg with 209 rooms and an aquapark, the five-star Crystal Mountain hotel in WisÅ‚a with almost 500 rooms and an aquapark, and the 124-room Tremonti Ski&Bike Resort complex in Karpacz. Despite the difficulties, the hotel market continues to expand its resource base. New seaside hotel investments, as in previous years, are mostly located on the line between Swinoujscie and Kolobrzeg. Hotel investments in this region are mostly condo hotels. The largest projects include the Wave MiÄ™dzyzdroje Resort & SPA hotel with 393 suites, Aqua Resort in Miedzyzdroje with 300 rooms and an aquapark, 435-room Radisson Blu Resort in Miedzywodzie, Hotel GoÅ‚Ä™biewski in Pobierowo with approximately 1400 rooms, PINEA Resort & Apartments in Pobierowo with 138 apartments, 266-room Mövenpick in Kolobrzeg, Baltic Wave in Kolobrzeg which is to offer 468 suites. Polish mountains offer interesting hotel investments, also largely sold in the condo system, Among the most interesting projects are Elements Hotel & SPA in Swieradow Zdroj with 289 rooms, Sanssouci Karpacz MGallery Hotel Collection with 110 rooms, Movenpick in Karpacz with 126 rooms, Mövenpick Zakopane Imperial Hotel with 130 rooms, Infinity Zieleniec Ski & SPA in Duszniki Zdroj with 328 apartments, and Linden Hotel & Resort in Szklarska Poreba with 137 rooms. New city hotels - Hotel chains previously focused mainly on municipal investments, are now very active also in the holiday destinations. In addition, smaller regional cities are gaining in importance. Unfortunately, high prices of investment plots and fierce competition in the fight for land from investors developing apartments for rent and dormitories, as well as rising construction costs make it more and more difficult to budget for the new hotel projects. Banks are still very cautious about financing hotel investments - informs Katarzyna Tencza. The investment interest in the sector is mainly in tourist destinations, but urban locations can also offer visitors new, interesting facilities. Last year saw the opening of such facilities as the ibis Styles Kraków Centrum hotel with 259 rooms, NYX Hotel Warsaw of the Leonardo Hotels chain with 331 rooms, located in the Varso Place complex near the Warsaw Central Station, Tulip Residences Warsaw Targowa hotel with 110 units, and Mercure Katowice Centrum with 268 rooms. In addition, the 195-room Mercure Kraków Fabryczna City hotel appeared on the Cracow market, 300-room AC Hotel by Marriott Kraków and Courtyard by Marriott Szczecin City hotel was opened in the Posejdon complex in Szczecin. It offers134 rooms. In WrocÅ‚aw, guests were welcomed by the Jazz aparthotel with 62 rooms and Hotel Herbal with 66 rooms, and at the end of last year, Dwór Uphagena Arche Hotel GdaÅ„sk with 145 rooms was opened in Gdansk. The Olsztyn market welcomed the 105-room Hampton by Hilton Olsztyn hotel. This year, the city hotel market will be supplied with a dozen or so new facilities under the brands of international and Polish brands. Most of them are hotels for which investment decisions were made before the pandemic. The Warsaw market is to be supplied, among others, by 238-room Focus Hotel Premium Warszawa located in Mokotow, 192-room Staybridge Suites Warszawa Ursynów, 448-room Royal Tulip Warsaw Apartments in Unique Tower building on Grzybowska Street, 96-room Autograph Collection by Marriott International in Warsaw's Old Town, or 66-room Flaner Hotel WorldHotels Crafted Collection. In Cracow, a 216-room Hyatt Place Kraków hotel, 125-room Autograph Collection by Marriott International, 116-room Curio Collection by Hilton Hotel Saski Kraków, 53-room Garamond Boutique Hotel Tribute Portfolio, and 173-room Hampton by Hilton Krakow Airport hotel are to open next year. A 130-room B&B hotel is to welcome guests in Lublin, and a 122-room Hampton by Hilton BiaÅ‚ystok is to be commissioned in Bialystok. The 201-room Q Hotel Plus WrocÅ‚aw Bielany will open in Wroclaw and the former Sofitel Wroclaw Old Town hotel with 205 rooms will reopen under the Wyndham brand. More challenges The rapidly changing market conditions mean that the industry is facing new challenges. The greatest difficulties that hotels will have to grapple with in the near future are the rising costs of living and the lack of employees. Problems are also related to the recovery of demand from corporate guests, the MICE sector and foreign tourists. Rises in energy, gas and garbage disposal prices, and rising labor costs, are making it difficult for the sector to recover. Growing inflation driving the costs of maintaining facilities is forcing a rise in accommodation prices. We can expect an increase in accommodation prices in the upcoming months, both in holiday destinations and urban locations. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects. In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.

The crypto market capitalisation fell to 1.83 trillion, losing 7.3% in the past 24 hours. As we had feared, the selloff was triggered by sharply negative sentiment in US equity markets and intensified by the breakdown of critical support levels. Bitcoin retreated to the $38.8K area. The amplitude of the decline from the peak at the start of the regular session in New York to the bottom at the opening of Asia exceeds 12%. Sellers have proven unbreakable (so far) the upper boundary of the downward price channel that has dominated bitcoin since mid-November. Another worrying fact is that Bitcoin's share has risen to 40.2% of the crypto's total cap. The implication is that investors are breaking out of altcoins even more sharply, as they are less confident in the ability of smaller coins to withstand the titans' fall. Without a sharp intraday reversal (chances for this are minimal), we can confidently expect an acceleration of long position liquidation in Bitcoin and further drawdowns. There is nowhere to look for support until the $30-33K area on the chart. Ether has given up support at $3K, quickly pulling back into the consolidation area of late September, ending up near $2.85K. The intensification of the selloff makes $2K the target of the initial downside wave. Earlier in 2021, the area of 30K for Bitcoin and near 2K for Ether was the bottom of a deep correction. This then attracted buyers, and the total market managed to rewrite highs. In that drawdown, the total capitalisation of cryptocurrencies was down to $1.2 trillion. If the first two cryptocurrencies were targeting lows last summer, it is logical to expect the entire market to return to the lows of that time. But then the external backdrop was highly favourable, as the US market was returning to growth with drawdowns in the 5% range, having already crossed that barrier earlier last year. The continued negative backdrop in equities sets up a deeper pullback in crypto. The crypto market's capitalisation could potentially shrink by half to the $830-900bn area before we see a new wave of long-term buyer inflows. For Bitcoin, this suggests the potential for a drop to 20k.

  The S&P 500 index broke below its early December low. Are we in a new bear market or is this still just a downward correction? The broad stock market index lost 1.10% on Thursday following its Wednesday’s decline of around 1%. The S&P 500 index fell below the 4,500 level and it was the lowest since mid-October. Investors reacted to quarterly earnings releases and further Russia-Ukraine tensions. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. This morning the market is expected to open 0.4% lower and it will most likely extend the downtrend. The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,500-4,525, marked by the recent support level. On the other hand, the support level is now at around 4,450. The S&P 500 broke below an over month-long upward trend line this week, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Broke Below its Previous Lows Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. The market broke below its previous local lows along the 4,520 level. There was a chance that entering a long position would be justified here, but any short-term bullish scenario seems invalidated now. On the other hand, it may be too late to enter a short position right now, because of some clear technical oversold conditions. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.4% lower this morning, so it will likely extend a short-term downtrend. We may see another intraday rebound, but there have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Yesterday we’ve seen a convincing rally, but it failed and the market sold off to new lows. The coming quarterly earnings releases (next week we’ll have MSFT, AAPL, TSLA among others) remain a bullish factor for stocks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 reached yet another new low yesterday and it was the lowest since mid-October. Stocks will most likely bounce at some point, but any rally may be short-lived. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 gave up yet again the opening gains – the bear didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Buyers defeated during the first hours, and credit markets are once again leaning the bearish way. Risk-off rules even if long-dated Treasuries rose for a day. Tech investors are selling first, and asking questions later, with consumer discretionaries, financials, and also energy hit. The washout S&P 500 bottom is approaching, and our fresh short profits are growing...Talking profits, after a one-day consolidation in precious metals, time has come to cash in on crude oil gains before the decline questioning $86 – that‘s second outsized gains trade in a row there. Black gold won‘t likely be held down for too long, and the same goes for copper knocking on $4.60 for the third time shortly. Excellent for the bottom line.This is the season of real assets (commodities and precious metals), and of the stock market correction still playing out, and driving open crypto short profits alike. Much to enjoy across the board as my fresh portfolio performance chart (check out my homesite) reached a solid new high yesterday – it‘s one year today since I launched my site. Tremendous journey building on prior own strength – thank you very much!Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 buyers still can‘t get their act together – the momentum remains to the downside until credit markets turn and tech bleeding stops. This can happen as early as Monday or Tuesday – I remain watching closely for signs of a high-confidence setup to perhaps take.Credit MarketsHYG pause didn‘t last long, and the volume keeps being elevated without credible signs of buying interest. What‘s more, the credit market posture is decidedly risk-off.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver are likely to pause a little, the miners say – but the propensity to rise is there, even this early in the tightening cycle. I‘m looking for dips to be eagerly bought.Crude OilCrude oil looks like seeing the bullish resolve tested soon, and odds are the dip would be relatively quickly bought. Still, the pace of steep upswings is likely to slow down next, I say so even as I continue being medium-term bullish ($90 is doable).CopperCopper is paring back on the missed opportunity to catch up, and it‘s good the red metal managed to rise even if quite a few other commodities stalled. Waking up alongside silver, finally?Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum little breather is over, the bears did strike again – and it may not be over yet, really not.SummaryThe opening sentence of yesterday‘s summary proved very true, and even faster that I thought possible - „S&P 500 upswing turned into a dead cat bounce pretty fast, and while we may see another attempt by the bulls, I think it would be rather short-lived. Think lasting a couple of days only.“ With the bears in the driving seat overnight – on the heels of a risk-off turn in the credit markets – we‘re likely to witness today another selling attempt.Another yesterday mentioned conclusion remains true as well - „Commodities and especially precious metals, are well placed to keep reaping the rewards – just as I had written a week ago. For now, it‘s fun to be riding the short side in S&P 500 judiciously... Let the great profits grow elsewhere in the meantime.“ Let‘s just add that cryptos are making us smile today, too.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The precious metals still do pirouettes on the trading floor, but they can stumble in their choreography. The bears are just waiting for it. With the GDX ETF soaring on significant volume on Jan. 19, the senior miners had a renewed pep in their step. With gold, silver, and mining stocks all dancing to the same beat, the precious metals garnered all of the bullish attention. However, with the trio known to cut their performances short as soon as investors arrive, will the mood music remain so sanguine? Well, for one, the GDX ETF has a history of peaking when the crowd enters the party. For example, I marked with the blue vertical dashed lines and blue arrows below how large daily spikes in volume often coincide with short-term peaks. Moreover, with another ominous event unfolding on Jan. 19, historical data implies that we’re much closer to the top than the bottom. To explain, I wrote on Jan. 20: From the technical point of view, we just saw another day similar to the other days that I marked with vertical dashed lines and black arrows. Those days were either right at the tops or not far from them. As much as yesterday’s (7%!) rally looks bullish, taking a look at the situation from a broad perspective provides us with the opposite – bearish – implications. The zig-zag scenario is being realized as well. The GDX ETF moved to the upper border of the rising trend channel. Also, doesn’t it remind you of something? Hint: it happened at a similar time of the year. Yes, the current price/volume action is similar to what we saw in early 2021. The RSI was above 60, a short-term rally that was preceded by a bigger decline, and a strong daily rally on huge volume at the end of the corrective rally. We’ve seen it all now, and we saw it in early 2021. Please see below: What’s more, the senior miners’ fatigue is already present. For example, the GDX ETF declined by 1.40% on Jan. 20, and the index ended the session only $0.30 above its 2021 close. Likewise, the senior miners failed to rally above the upper trendline of their ascending channel (drawn with the blue lines above). As a result, the price action resembles an ABC zigzag pattern, and while the short-term outlook is less certain, the medium-term outlook is profoundly bearish. As further evidence, the HUI Index’s weekly chart provides some important clues. For example, despite the profound rally on Jan. 19, the index’s stochastic indicator still hasn’t recorded a buy signal. Moreover, the HUI Index dropped after reaching its 50-week moving average, and the ominous rejection mirrors 2013. Back then, the index approached its 50-week moving average, then suffered a pullback, and then suffered a monumental decline. As a result, is this time really different? Remember – history tends to rhyme, and this time the analogies from the past favor a bearish forecast for gold stocks. Turning to the GDXJ ETF, the junior miners were off to the races on Jan. 19. However, the size of the rally is actually smaller than what we witnessed in early 2021. Moreover, when the short-term sugar high ended back then, optimism turned to pessimism and the GDXJ ETF sank to new lows. Thus, with the junior miners’ 2021 story one of lower highs and lower lows, 2022 will likely result in more of the same. Please see below: Finally, the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) isn’t at levels that trigger a major reversal. The Index is now at 30. However, far from a medium-term bottom, the latest reading is still more than 20 points above the 2016 and 2020 lows. Likewise, when the BPGDM hit 30 in 2013, the HUI Index was already in the midst of its medium-term downtrend (similar to what we witnessed in 2021). However, the milestone was far from the final low. With material weakness persisting and a lasting bottom not forming until the end of 2015/early 2016, further downside for gold (and silver) likely lies ahead. For context, it’s my belief that the precious metals will bottom when the BPGDM hits zero – and perhaps when it remains there for some time. In conclusion, gold, silver, and mining stocks put on quite a show on Jan. 19. However, with their bullish rhythm known to turn bearish in an instant, investors should proceed with caution. Moreover, the data shows that when investors rush to buy the precious metals, their over-enthusiasm results in medium-term weakness, not strength. As a result, the trio’s declines likely have more room to run before long-term buying opportunities emerge later in 2022. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Recently, oil prices hit their highest levels in 7 years. Despite this, we are witnessing a surprising increase in US inventories. Why is that? Energy Market Updates Crude oil retreated this morning in the pre-US trading session, after another volatile day on Thursday. It was followed by the weekly release of US inventory figures that surprised the market with an increase in stocks published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Meanwhile, market participants were expecting a drop close to 1 million barrels, which implies a slowdown in demand. This imbalance has led to soaring prices for petroleum products and distillates, which will add pressure on households and businesses already struggling with higher levels of inflation. Also, as I mentioned in more detail on Wednesday, there are also geopolitical tensions in various regions carrying some uncertainty, which is an additional turbine to propel oil prices. (Source: Investing.com) RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Do you think that black gold will be worth three figures ($100) anytime soon? In the first quarter of 2022, maybe? Let us know in the comments. That’s all folks for today. Have a nice weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

TSLA finished Thursday in the green, gaining 0.06% to $996.27. Equities had gyrated sharply but fell as the close approached. Tesla stock outperforms as Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fall sharply. Tesla (TSLA) managed to hold onto intraday gains but only just barely on Thursday. Stocks (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) had opened well and were up some 1% for the main indices at the halfway stage of Thursday, but jitters resurfaced as the finish line approached. Investors began dumping positions, and the main indices closed in the red. The S&P 500 shed 1.1%, the Dow closed 0.89% lower and the Nasdaq closed down the most at 1.34% in the red. Tesla however just held onto a green day, up 0.06%. Given that it is a volatile name and a high beta one, this was a strong outperformance. Tesla Stock News: bearish Bank of America forecast a worrying sign Tesla (TSLA) stock may have held its ground in anticipation of its Q4 earnings, which are due out next week. Bank of America and Piper Sandler fought it out with conflicting analyst reports. Bank of America took a dim view of Tesla's market share forecasts, saying it would drop from 69% to 19% of the EV market due to legacy automakers ramping up EV production. However, Piper Sandler noted that it sees Tesla beating delivery estimates for the year due to factories in Texas and Berlin ramping up production. For now, it appears investors are putting more focus on those delivery numbers and anticipating a strong earnings report. The Bank of America report is more alarming, but it does have a longer term outlook with the market share fall predicted for 2024. Tesla Stock Forecast: $886 is a futher downside target Yesterday's move has kept Tesla above the key short-term pivot at $980, but note that yesterday's high price was stuck at the 9-day moving average and Tesla failed to break through. This gives us more belief in an imminent break of $980. If this level does go, then the move to $886 will likely be quick due to a lack of volume. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

Shiba Inu price sees bears drilling down on an important area of support. SHIB price could see a nose dive reaction later today should the US session see accelerated selloffs. A break below the 200-day SMA could hold 70% of losses before plenty of support is found. Shiba Inu (SHIB) price continues to be controlled by bears after the dead-cat bounce in stock markets yesterday evening. With the Nasdaq closing sharply lower, giving up earlier gains, cryptocurrencies are being dragged into a selloff on its coattails, and bearish headwinds persist. Expect a further continuation of downside tests, with $0.00002576, up next, and a break below that opening up the possibility of SHIB price being decimated towards $0.00000655 – a 70% devaluation. Shiba Inu hanging by a thread before price action could collapse Shiba Inu price is in a vortex along with other financial market assets, after the US session saw a180 degree U-turn to the downside. The ASIA PAC and European sessions are also sharply lower and with risk assets being slashed across the board. This is being reflected in cryptocurrencies where a selloff is also taking place. At the moment, SHIB price is drilling down to $0.00002482, a level where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the monthly S1 support level intersect.This should offer plenty of support, but with current market sentiment so negative, it is not a given that investors will want to step in and support the trade. A break lower would see price next pause at $0.00001623, the S2 monthly support. The level of the S2 does not hold any historical relevance, however, making it relatively weak, and the only key level further down looks to be $0.00000607, just above the S3 monthly support, and the starting point of a Fibonacci retracement. Depending on how the US session will unfold, expect this to be on the cards in the days to come if markets enter into correction territory or even into a recession. The result would be SHIB shedding 70% of its market value from where it is currently trading. SHIB/USD daily chart Often enough, markets see an uptick after a gloomy negative day like yesterday. Investors start to come in and pick up interesting assets at a discount, and markets finally get to a point where a revaluation trade is made. This could be the same for Shiba Inu, with the 200-day SMA holding its ground, supporting price action, and a bullish candle starting to form with a test at the 55-day SMA around $0.00003395.

The ruble remains under pressure on Monday after four weeks of decline. The USDRUB is above 77.7 and approaching the area of last year's highs. Technically, the situation looks like a moment of truth for the ruble. An easing of geopolitical tensions has the potential to turn it around on the way to 78, as it did several times last year. And we can see that Russian politicians the previous week were ready for more constructive negotiations and compromises. However, it has not yet come to de-escalation, and pressure on the rouble persists. Reports that the US and the UK are set to expel diplomats from Kyiv have created a new local momentum of pressure on the ruble. Fixing the dollar above 78 rubles today could be the starting point for a jump of USD/RUB to 80 and EUR/RUB to 90 this week. At the same time, we believe that the overheating is close to the peak. Further chances for stabilising the situation at the current level or even compromising are higher than stricter rhetoric. In this case, the ruble would have the opportunity for another turn down from 78-80 for the dollar and 88-90 for the euro. In a partial geopolitical agreement, the Russian currency would remain tied to global risk demand, which is contracting in January. Therefore, even with a favourable geopolitical scenario, one should not expect the rouble to quickly return to levels of the start of the year.

USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc rallied as traders poured into safe-haven currencies. The pair previously bounced off the critical floor (0.9090) on the daily chart. An oversold RSI in this demand zone brought in some buying interest. However, sentiment remains downbeat with the greenback struggling to clear offers around 0.9180. A fall below said support would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.9020 as late buyers rush to the exit. On the upside, a bullish breakout would open the door to the recent peak at 0.9275. CADJPY breaks key support The Canadian dollar slipped after disappointing retail sales in November. A bearish RSI divergence at the recent high (91.15) indicates a loss of momentum in the rally. The first drop below 90.60 prompted some buyers to bail out. Then the rebound met stiff selling pressure at 91.90. And this is a sign of exhaustion after a four-week-long uptrend. The loonie now has fallen through the major support at 90.60, with 89.80 as the target. As the RSI goes oversold, traders may look to sell the next bounce near 91.05. UK 100 tumbles through supports The FTSE 100 stalls as appetite subsides across risk assets. An overbought RSI on the daily chart suggests over-extension after a month-long rally. A pullback is necessary for the bulls to catch their breath. A drop below 7530 and then 7470 further weighs on short-term sentiment as profit-taking intensifies. The index is about to test 7380, a fresh demand zone from the November-December double top on the daily timeframe. The bulls need to reclaim 7540 before a rebound could gain traction.

The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was down to 11 on Sunday and slightly up to 13 by early Monday. Crypto market capitalisation lost another 1.1% overnight to $1.61 trillion, the lowest since August. As is often the case with prolonged sell-offs, altcoins are falling with acceleration to the first cryptocurrency, causing BTC's share gains, which already stands at 41.3% against lows of 39.3% in mid-January. Bitcoin's share of 40% seems like a turning point, twice triggering a correction in the crypto market. This level stood like an informal threshold that optimism about altcoins had gone too far. However, the rise in bitcoin's share does little to help its price. We saw the sixth consecutive bearish daily candlestick on Monday morning, and the price rolled back to $35K. The bears may well be able to sell the price down to $32.5K, closing the gap of July and returning the rate to last summer's support area. Alarmingly, the sharp reversal on Friday was not followed by any meaningful bounce. Some observers point out that this is a worrying signal, suggesting further market declines, as we have not seen a final capitulation. Without capitulation, the markets will remain with an overhang of sellers. The price of ether has fallen to $2400, which is less than half of its peak price in November. Events are developing in a bearish scenario, so far broadly repeating what we saw in 2018 in terms of overall sentiment. Long-term buyers can avoid buying at prices above 30k for bitcoin and 2k for ether. We believe long-term investors will look out for purchases in the 20-30k per bitcoin area. Whether these purchases will be at the upper or lower boundary depends, among other things, on the situation in the stock markets. The return of buyers there will support the demand for risk among institutional investors. But as long as we see only steady selling from them, it is too early to talk about buying.

  You don't have to be a fortune teller to predict some of the precious metals’ behavior in the market. Any incoming signs take the shape of a bear. What a signal-rich week that was! At least if you’re interested in forecasting gold and predicting silver prices. The USD Index rallied, but that was the least interesting of the important developments, as it had already reversed during the preceding week. So, the fact that the USD Index continued its medium-term uptrend last week is not that noteworthy. It needs to be said, though, as that continues to be an important factor for the future of the precious metals market. To be clear – the implications for the PM sector are bearish. What about gold, the key precious metal? Gold is so far almost unchanged this year, despite the initial decline and the subsequent rally. Overall, gold is up by $3.20 so far in 2022, which is next to nothing. Gold rallied on a supposedly dangerous situation regarding Ukraine, but it failed to rally above the combination of resistance lines and very little changed technically. On a side note, I would like to remind you that, based on our own reliable source in Ukraine (one of our team members is located there), the risk of military conflict (in particular, a severe one) is low, and it seems that the market’s reaction was greatly exaggerated. Anyway, moving back to technicals, let’s keep this $3.20-up-this-year statistic in mind while we take a look at what’s going on in silver and mining stocks. Silver declined on Friday, but it’s still up by $0.97 so far in 2022. This means that on a short-term basis, silver greatly outperformed gold. What’s up with mining stocks? The GDX ETF – a proxy for generally senior mining stocks – is down this year by $0.38, which is 1.19%. At the same time, the GDXJ ETF is down by $0.87, which is 2.07%. In other words: While silver is outperforming gold on a short-term basis, gold mining stocks are underperforming it. Junior mining stocks (our short position) are declining more than senior miners, and in fact, they are declining the most out of the entire precious metals sector. Silver’s outperformance, accompanied by gold miners weakness, is a powerful bearish combination in the case of the entire precious metals sector. If the general stock market is going to slide, silver and mining stocks (in particular, junior mining stocks) are likely to decline in a rather extreme manner. The thing is… We just saw something in the general stock market that we haven’t seen since early 2020 – right before the massive decline that triggered the huge declines in the precious metals sector. The RSI Index just moved below 30 for the first time since pre-slide moments. Just like what we saw back then, the S&P 500 is now declining on increasing volume. Yes, RSI below 30 is generally considered oversold territory, but the direct analogies take precedence over the “usual” way in which things work in markets in general. In this case, the situation could get from oversold to extremely oversold. Let’s keep in mind that stocks declined very sharply in 2020. One could say that times were different, but were they really? The key difference is that the monetary authorities are now already after the bullish money-printing cycle and are handling inflation by aiming to increase interest rates, while they had been preparing to cut them in 2020. The situation regarding the pandemic is not that different either. Sure, back in 2020, it was all new, we had massive lockdowns and there was great uncertainty regarding… pretty much everything. Now, the situation is not entirely unexpected, but given the explosive nature of new COVID-19 cases (likely due to the Omicron variant), it’s still quite new and uncertain. The uncertainty is not as great as it was back in 2020, but then again, now we’re facing monetary tightening, not dramatic dovish actions. Thus, I wouldn’t exclude a situation in which we really see a repeat of the early-2020 performance, where the declines are sharp and huge. The technicals in the precious metals market have been pointing to that outcome for months anyway, especially the long-term HUI Index chart that I’ve been discussing previously. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

As stocks have trended higher, especially the tech stocks, soared in 2021, we must be reminded that Microsoft is once again one of the top companies in the world by market cap. Apple is number one in the world by market cap, and Microsoft continues to be right behind them. In October of 2021, Microsoft had bypassed Apple as the largest company by market cap globally, but Apple soon passed them once again. Microsoft is not the same old company we had known back when Bill Gates was in charge. They have changed and have created a more diverse brand and product portfolio leading that change. Bill Gates stepped down as CEO in 2000 and officially left his full-time role in Microsoft in 2008. Since then, Microsoft has diversified its portfolio to include many more products, including gaming, cloud services, and making Office more business-friendly. Microsoft under Gates was known for two big things: Microsoft Office and Windows; that was the entire portfolio. Satya Nadella, the current CEO of Microsoft, has revolutionized the software company and has made it a software company with a vision of working with businesses, making gaming a priority, and expanding Azure, its cloud network. How Does Microsoft Make Money? A diverse portfolio of many more products allowed Microsoft to branch out from only MS Office and Windows software and adapt to software technology's future. Microsoft has adapted to the world of sales in its subscription-based software model. They sell their Microsoft Office products to businesses and consumers, creating a pay-as-you-go subscription-based business model. Productivity and Business In 2020, Microsoft Office made a significant amount of their revenue from subscription-based software compared to 0% in 2000. MS Office at one point brought close to half of the revenue in 2000, but Office is not even 25% of the revenue that Microsoft takes in now, having over $35 billion in revenue each year. The new software has been revolutionizing businesses. First, they pay for Microsoft Office, and with that, they get Microsoft OneDrive, Teams, and Dynamics. Teams is just a fancy business video chat software like Zoom Video Communications (ZM), but you can only have Teams with Microsoft business accounts. Dynamics is another software that helps with business computing. It helps with business efficiency and works with customer relationship management or CRM, but it is not one of the top competitors to Salesforce (CRM). However, it has over $3 billion in revenue. Windows continues to be one of the most widely used software globally. That domination is starting to penetrate other parts of their customers giving them opportunities to dominate other businesses. With the subscription-based model, they will continue to bring in significant revenue, earnings, and cash flow. Before the proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard (ATVI), LinkedIn was Microsoft's largest acquisition. It came in at $26 billion in 2016. Today, LinkedIn makes over $8 billion annually in revenue, up from the $3 billion pre-acquisition. LinkedIn has no major competitors and creates most of its money from job offer advertisements, other advertisements, and cash for LinkedIn premium. The Cloud Cloud software has become a bigger space for companies. It has led Microsoft to enter the space and business opportunities through the Azure Cloud system. Microsoft has thus gained a foothold in the cloud space. Azure Cloud system by Microsoft came out in 2009, and in 2021 the platform had become the second-largest cloud-based service in the world behind Amazon Web Services (AWS). With the cloud service, Microsoft's revenue grew by 48% in quarter 3 of 2021. It has reached a 21% market share and continues to gain more traction in the cloud space.   Azure consists of public, private, and hybrid cloud service products that help to power modern businesses. Dynamics and Azure are contributing to over 31% of Microsoft's revenue. In addition, customers are reaping many benefits through the cloud as it enhances the user experience with Microsoft products. The Gaming Industry Microsoft is becoming one of the leaders in the gaming industry. The Xbox is leading the charge with gaming, and Microsoft just made a deal to acquire Activision Blizzard for $69 Billion; if government regulators approve the sale, this acquisition will occur in 2023. The purchase would make Microsoft one of the largest gaming companies in the world. They would then own games like Call of Duty, War of Warcraft, and Candy Crush. In addition, making the deal would put them behind Sony and China's Tencent as a top-three gaming company globally. Microsoft is putting their company in a position to take on the Metaverse. Apple (APPL), Google (GOOG), Meta (FB), and Microsoft are creating technologies for the Metaverse. Satya Nadalla has emphasized that gaming technologies are part of the Metaverse. Is Microsoft a Good Stock to Buy? If we look at the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, we end up with an overvalued stock compared to Apple and Google. The P/E ratio is 32.0X, making it a bit more overvalued than Apple, which is trading at a valuation of 28.5X, as of this writing. They are close in the P/E ratio, but you would like to see the P/E ratio lower as an investor. Microsoft is a dividend growth stock that has raised the dividend for 19 consecutive years. The most recent quarterly dividend increase was $0.62 per share from $0.56 per share. The forward annual payout is now $2.48 per share with a conservative payout ratio of about 27%. The question is whether the hype of Microsoft is worth a buy as this company continues to create a diverse portfolio moving from one business to another. You can see the company dominating competitive markets like gaming and cloud systems. It has also innovated different types of software to help other businesses. Microsoft's future looks excellent if you are an investor, but the stock is likely overvalued based on the P/E ratio. In addition, the dividend yield is low at 0.84%. This value is less than the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index. Suppose individual stocks are too risky for you. In that case, an alternative is to try an excellent ETF or even a tech ETF to gain exposure to Microsoft and other overvalued tech companies. In many cases, ETFs are market cap-weighted, and Microsoft is one of the top holdings. You can always own a piece of Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Meta through an excellent ETF like an S&P 500 ETF. Microsoft is also a top 10 holding in some of the best dividend growth ETFs. These index funds will help you own a selection of some of the most profitable and most prominent companies in the US. Author Bio: Dividend Power is a self-taught investor and blogger on dividend growth stocks and financial independence. Some of his writings can be found on Seeking Alpha, TalkMarkets, ValueWalk, The Money Show, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, Entrepreneur, FXMag, and leading financial blogs. He also works as a part-time freelance equity analyst with a leading newsletter on dividend stocks. He was recently in the top 1.5% (126 out of over 8,212) of financial bloggers as tracked by TipRanks (an independent analyst tracking site) for his articles on Seeking Alpha. Disclaimer: Dividend Power is not a licensed or registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. He is not providing you with individual investment advice. Please consult with a licensed investment professional before you invest your money. 

The cryptocurrency market is adding 0.2% in the last 24 hours to $1.63 trillion, experiencing some pause or rebound after a prolonged drawdown. Buyer interest in cryptocurrencies came at the expense of a rebound in US equities, where selloff hunters thought their time had come. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation without Bitcoin became less than 1 trillion last Saturday, and this round level now acts as near-term resistance. At one point on Monday, Bitcoin was down to $33K, but at the late US session, and now trades near $36.4K. Yesterday's drawdown almost closed the gap in July and also came from the lower boundary of the downward channel. The latter indicates that despite the prevalence of bears, the market is not yet ready to accelerate the decline. Bitcoin is gaining 2.8% in 24 hours, but most altcoins are losing ground. So, yesterday's rebound in bitcoin and the positive dynamics of the crypto market are more correctly attributed to technical factors: crypto investors are exiting altcoins to more liquid BTC, forming temporary bounces, but nothing more. The nearest target for BTC downside is $32.3K to close the gap entirely. However, it is worth being prepared to retest the July lows of $29.5-30K. Without support from the stock markets, these levels may not hold for long either. Ether also saw a bounce yesterday towards the end of the day, making it clear that the market is far from surrendering. After seven days of collapse, the primary altcoin managed to close Monday with a tiny gain. Nevertheless, there are no signs of breaking the downtrend yet. Moreover, a death cross is also forming over the ether, as the 50-day moving average is now only a couple of days away from crossing the 200-day from the top down. This signal is often followed by a new bearish attack.

Gold is trading near $1840, adding 3.2% from the Jan 7 lows, as a hedge against increased financial market volatility. By comparison, the S&P500 has experienced its worst start to a year in history, losing more than 12% in that time in response to the harsh tone of US monetary policy comments. At a point like this, we often see a divergence in the dynamics of gold and equities, which revives talk of a safe haven. However, investors should not forget that increased equity market volatility, if it lasts long enough, at some point triggers a capitulation of gold buyers. The critical question for investors now is when there is a switch between a favourable decline for gold and a real fear triggering a circular sell-off in all assets. We are looking at the performance of the yen and the franc. Both currencies are relatively protected from geopolitical risks on the Eurozone sidelines. So far, these currencies have moderately slid against the dollar, which suggests that we have not yet reached the point of reducing leverage. This means that a relatively positive background also remains for gold, which allows us to talk about a continuation of the positive trend of the last two months for the time being. The next central resistance area looks at $1870-1905, between the last two peaks. Among other factors, gold may be hampered by further declines in the stock indices if yesterday's bounce attempt does not materialize today. A move above $1900 would signal the end of a long-term correction in gold and start a new momentum of growth above $2500, which would last for up to two years. The opposite is also true. A pullback under $1800 would end the long upside attempt and the long consolidation. The main near-term unknown is the outcome of Wednesday evening's Fed meeting. The central bank's statements and comments could determine the other trend of gold, supporting or, conversely, reversing the latest upside attempts.

Cardano's price action is slipping below the monthly S1 and crucial historical support. Once broken below this vital support, an area of 30% losses could be triggered. Expect bulls to await the FED meeting later this week before engaging in the market. Cardano (ADA) price action is not seeing the turn in sentiment that was expected with the start of a new trading week. Geopolitical talks are ramping up again this Monday regarding Russia, and investors are awaiting details of monetary tightening by the FED later this week, making investors an absent party in the cryptocurrency market for the first few days of the week. As $1.01 is under fire, expect a break below to open the next leg lower towards $0.69, shedding another 30% of the price value for the altcoin. Cardano price sees investors absent in the build up to the FED rate decision Cardano participants seem to be split in half, with only sellers and bears present in the market, while bulls and investors remain on the sideline. The biggest reasons for this are the political rhetoric on Russia that is ramping up again this morning after statements that NATO and the US would send in more military material and troops. Financial markets, meanwhile, are awaiting the outcome of the FED monetary policy meeting Wednesday. These two tail risks keep price action muted or further to the downside, with investors sidelined. ADA this morning is drilling down on the monthly S1 support level and the historical $1.01 level that goes back to March 05. Once this breaks, expect not much support to be present until $0.69 where the monthly S2 support level kicks in at around $0.75, but the most significant historical level is at $0.69 from February 06. Expect buyers to come in there as that would mean that ADA price action is back at 0% on a Year-To-Date (YTD) performance. ADA/USD daily chart As the FED holds the keys for a turn in sentiment short-term, expect a pop higher to unfold very quickly. A knee jerk reaction would wash out many short positions and bring price action quickly back towards $1.40, at the level of the monthly pivot and the green ascending trend line. Should the message from the FED by Wednesday be very dovish and in favour of risk-on sentiment, expect a possible test of $1.68 further to the upside for this week.

GameStop stock stages a dead cat bounce on Friday. GME stock closes up nearly 4% on Friday as market freefalls. More losses are likely on Monday as momentum fades and meme is massacred. GameStop (GME) managed to outperform the market significantly on Friday. The meme stock king closed nearly 4% higher at $106.36 despite the main indices closing sharply in the red. However, this was merely a dead cat bounce, and we will outline our reasoning below. GameStop Stock News Nothing too significant behind Friday's outperformance. GameStop (GME) shares had suffered eight consecutive days of losses. Statistically, an up day was becoming more and more likely. GameStop passed a few milestones without much fanfare or reaction from the stock price. Social media traders attempted to play up the one-year anniversary of the GameStop pop, and CEO Ryan Cohen joined in. However, the stock slid. An announcement of a pivot into the NFT space was also met by indifference after a quick surge from the share price. Despite GME spending much of last week near the top of social media mentions, it failed to hook any buyers. The market has little time for risk at present, and speculative meme stocks are getting hit hard so far this year. As we have mentioned, this may be a good thing and avert a full-blown bubble bursting, akin to 2000. The NFT announcement did see a brief pop, but that merely presented a fresh selling opportunity. Year to date, GME is now down nearly 30% and is likely to get worse. The main trading lesson of momentum trading is to get out quickly when momentum stops or stalls. This is not investing or buy-and-hold. This is the realm of quick scalping and risk control. Momentum has collapsed in retail names. Witness falling volumes, falling single share volumes, lower retail sentiment, and drastically lower call option volume: all signs of falling momentum. GameStop Stock Forecast $100 will be broken soon, possibly today or Tuesday. That will lead to some stop-loss triggering as people are herd animals and love round numbers. There will be plenty of stops sitting just below $100. $86 is the target thereafter. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has more room to run before being overbought. Breaking $86 is big. That was the retest following the power surge higher back in February pf last year. Below $86 volume thins out, and there is a volume gap until $50. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

Bitcoin will create, not destroy BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, no rush: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 25th, 2022. All the typical fears came forward after last week’s price decline in the crypto space. Fears on why to get out of one’s bitcoin hodls. Even to walk away from the idea of bitcoin being a good store of value. But the emotional decision in market participation is often the wrong choice to come out ahead. Bitcoin will not be regulated away. With a near 100 billion tax revenue, bitcoin is unlikely to be banned in the USA. It has established itself in size as an income stream that no one could afford to give up. The monthly chart above shows that after the recent double top bitcoin´s two year strong up move has seen three months of a price decline to the 50% Fibonacci retracement line. To the right of the chart, we portray two fictitious candles as we see a likelihood of the future to unfold over the next two months.   BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, sideways to up: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of January 25th, 2022. On January 20th, the Federal Reserve Board released a discussion paper that examines the pros and cons of a potential U.S. central bank digital currency. News like this shakes up investor’s minds, fearing possible conversions where fiat currency savings might lose some of their value. On top, massive fear ruled the market over the last few days and weeks, a time when professionals know that opportunities are just around the corner. A look at the weekly chart reveals that the right top of the monthly double top had a substructure of a head and shoulders formation. Last week, the shoulder line broke and sent prices plummeting for a near 22% loss. Prices find themselves now in a value zone. In the histogram to the right of the chart, we see a fractal volume analysis. This analysis suggests supply in the price zone between US$36,000 and US$31,000. BTC in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Bitcoin will create, not destroy: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of January 25th, 2022. As much as we expect a sideways zone for four to eight weeks before bitcoin prices head significantly higher, we already attempted three long trades on a daily time frame after prices entered into the value zone pointed out on the previous chart. Our approach of position building thanks to a quad exit strategy exploit low-risk entry points. Consequently, we were able in the past to catch bitcoin long-term trades near their price lows. News has more than once in the past accelerated price up moves for bitcoin in an unexpected fashion. As a result, we are actively scanning for low-risk opportunities already now. The price moves marked in white show how prices decline quickly in bitcoin, while typically trading sideways most of the time. Fortunately, rising prices act just the same way. The volume profile to the right of the chart shows four significant supply zones. (marked in orange dotted horizontal lines.) Bitcoin will create, not destroy: The good news is that government’s conversion of fiat money to digital might scare people into fleeing with their savings into bitcoin. Henceforth, they further stabilize this payment method. We mention this possible future for bitcoin since changes could be rapid, significant, and surprising. Consequently, bitcoin might find itself in a fast uptrend with high price targets to be expected. We also want to point out the nature of your participation in long-term bitcoin acquisitions. You are not only a speculator on a perfect investment, but also a holder of a positive value. A principle value that protects your freedom of purchasing power. A purchasing power that isn’t transparent allows you to conduct business as you please. Transactions without a controlling force casting a shadow over your choices. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|January 25th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

S&P 500 closed below the 200-day moving average – unheard of. But similarly to the turn in credit markets on Wednesday, the bulls can surprise shortly as the differential between HYG and TLT with LQD is more pronounced now. The field is getting clear, the bulls can move – and shortly would whether or not we see the autumn lows tested next. Now that my target of 4,400 has been reached (the journey to this support has been a more one-sided event than anticipated), 4,300 are next in the bears sight. The bearish voice and appetite is growing, which may call for a little caution in celebrating the downswings next. Relief rally is approaching, even if not immediately and visibly here yet. All I am waiting for, is a convincing turn in the credit markets, which we haven‘t seen yet. The dollar is likely to waver in the medium-term, and that‘s what‘s helping the great and profitable moves in commodities, and reviving precious metals. Crypto short profits are likewise growing – the real question is when the tech slide would stop (getting closer), and how much would financials rebound as well. Not worried about energy – the oil dip would turn out a mere blip. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers are nowhere to be seen, volume isn‘t yet at capitulation levels – rebound off increasingly oversold levels is approaching. Tech melting down faster than value is to be expected – look for consumer staples to do fine too, not just the sectors mentioned above. As written on Friday, the turn in bleeding in credit markets and tech may stop as early as Monday or Tuesday – I remain watching closely for signs of a high-confidence setup to perhaps take. Credit Markets HYG paused for a day while quality debt instruments rose – that‘s still risk-off, but symptomatic of the larger battle and buying interest at these levels already. Could presage a respite in stocks during the regular session next. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver indeed paused a little – in spite of the miners weakness, that‘s no reversal. Most likely only a temporary correction within a developing uptrend. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are finally getting tested, and by the look of oil stocks, it‘s not going to be a test reaching too far. Not even volume rose on the day – look for price stabilization followed by another upswing. Copper Copper had actually a hidden bullish day – a good consolidation of prior gains. While the volume isn‘t pointing the clearly bearish way, the amplitude of the move can be repeated next. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum Sunday rally fizzled out, and the downswing doesn‘t look to be yet over as another day of panic across the board is ahead. No signs from cryptos that the slide is stopping now. Summary S&P 500 bulls are readying a surprise – the long string of red days is coming to a pause. Credit markets turning a bit risk-on coupled with a tech pause and financials revival (not to mention consumer staples and energy) would be the recipe to turn the tide. We‘re in a large S&P 500 range, and got quite near its lower band at around 4,300. The short rides are to be wound down shortly, and that will coincide with another commodities run higher. Look to precious metals likewise not to disappoint while cryptos continue struggling at the moment. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

GBPUSD remains under pressure The sterling struggles as global markets remain risk-off. A limited rebound has fought to hold above 1.3570 and the sell-off accelerated after a bearish breakout. The pair is testing a previous low at 1.3440 which sits along the 30-day moving average. There could be buying interest in this congestion area after the RSI plunged into the oversold band. 1.3570 is now a fresh resistance, then the bulls will need to lift 1.3660 before they could turn sentiment around. On the other hand, a deeper correction may send the price to 1.3400. AUDUSD in bearish reversal The Australian dollar recovered after the Q4 CPI beat expectations. However, the latest rally took a bearish turn after the price slipped below 0.7170. The lack of commitment to hold onto recent gains suggests a weak risk appetite. A fall below the daily support at 0.7130 further weighs on the Aussie and prompts buyers to bail out. The RSI’s oversold situation helped lift the pair temporarily. Nonetheless, the bears might be eager to sell into strength near 0.7210. 0.7080 would be the next stop as the trend turns south. GER 40 tests critical support The Dax 40 plunges amid rising tensions in Ukraine. The index has given up all gains from the rebound in late December and cut through the major demand zone around 15070. The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation attracted a buying-the-dips crowd. Nevertheless, there is no sign of improvement in the market mood. And price action has not stabilized yet. A grind of last October’s low at 14820 would test the bulls’ resolve in the medium-term. On the upside, 15600 is the first hurdle to lift.

  The S&P 500 index was trading 4% lower yesterday before closing 0.3% higher. So was it an upward reversal or just another temporary bottom? The broad stock market index accelerated its sell-off on Monday, as it reached the new local low of 4,222.62. The market was 596 points or 12.4% below the Jan. 4 record high of 4,818.62. Investors reacted to further Russia-Ukraine tensions. We are also waiting for series of quarterly earnings releases, tomorrow’s FOMC Statement release and Thursday’s important U.S. Advance GDP release. Overall, we had a big increase in volatility yesterday. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. This morning it is expected to open 1.6% lower and we may see more short-term volatility. Will it reach yesterday’s low again? Probably not – we’ll likely see a consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,420-4,450, marked by yesterday’s daily high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350. The support level is also at 4,220-4,250. The S&P 500 remains below a steep short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Microsoft Stocks Ahead of the Earnings Release Microsoft (MSFT) will release its quarterly earnings today after the session’s close. It’s an important stock, as it weighs 6.0%, just after the Apple’s 6.7%. So, the S&P 500 traders will be watching that release very closely. Microsoft accelerated its sell-off yesterday and it fell to the local low of $276.05. It was 21% below the Nov. 22 record high of $349.67. The stock remains below the downward trend line, but we can see some clear short-term oversold conditions. Let’s take a look at the Microsoft’s monthly chart. The stock broke below its multi-year hyperbolic run marked by the thick blue curve. The chart is logarithmic, and we can see an enormous rally that took place since 2013. The breakdown may lead to a change in trend or some medium- or long-term consolidation. It looks like a multi-year bull run is over. Futures Contract Got Close to the 4,200 Level Yesterday The S&P 500 futures contract accelerated its downtrend yesterday, as it fell close to the 4,200 level. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far, however there are some downtrend exhaustion signals. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index accelerated its sell-off yesterday and at some point it was 4% lower! But the market rebounded sharply following a “V” pattern reversal and it closed 0.3% higher. This morning it is expected to open 1.6% lower and we may see some further volatility. The coming quarterly earnings releases (MSFT on Tuesday, TSLA on Wednesday and AAPL on Thursday, among others) remain a bullish factor for stocks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Investors are also waiting for tomorrow’s Fed release and Thursday’s U.S. Advance GPD number release. If you want to be in the loop about any future market changes (with instant mail notifications!) sign up for the newsletter here. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 is expected to open lower again; we may see a consolidation. Opening a speculative long position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are expecting a 5% upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Tough call as select S&P 500 sectors came back to life, but credit markets are a bit inconclusive. Some more selling today before seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around). VIX looks to have topped yesterday, and coupled with the commodities and precious metals relative resilience (don‘t look at cryptos where I took sizable short profits in both Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday), sends a signal of upcoming good couple of dozen points rebound in the S&P 500. Taking a correct view at the hightened, emotional market slide yesterday, is through the portfolio performance – as you can see via clicking the link, yesterday‘s setup needn‘t and shouldn‘t be anyone‘s make or break situation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 buyers stepped in, and carving out a nice lower knot today is the minimum expectation that the bulls can have. The reversal is still very young and vulnerable. Credit Markets HYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – there is just a marginal daily outperformance of quality debt instruments. More is needed. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver are only pausing – in spite of the miners move to the downside at the moment. HUI and GDX will catch up – they‘re practically primed to do so over the medium-term. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls are still getting tested, and oil stocks stabilized on a daily basis. Some downside still remains, but nothing dramatic – the volume didn‘t even rise yesterday. Copper Copper declined, but didn‘t meaningfully lead lower – the downswing was actually bought, and low 4.40s look to be well defended at the moment. More fear striking, would change the picture, but we aren‘t there yet. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum reversed, but in spire of the volume, look to need more time to bottom out – and I wouldn‘t be surprised if that included another decline. Summary S&P 500 bulls would get tested today again, and at least a draw would be a positive result, as yesterday‘s tech upswing is more likely to be continued tomorrow than today – that‘s how it usually goes after sizable (think 5%) range days. The table is set for an upside surprise on FOMC tomorrow – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals, and the coming S&P 500 upswing looks to be a worthwhile opportunity in the making, too – on a short-term and nimble basis. So, I‘m more in the glass half full camp going into tomorrow. Anyway, let‘s take the portfolio view discussed in the opening part of today‘s article. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

GameStop stock crashes but recovers in the afternoon. GameStop shares close nearly 6% lower on Monday. GME shares remain top of WallStreetBets interest list. GameStop (GME) stock likes volatility, and meme traders should certainly be used to it by now, but perhaps not the type that was evident yesterday. GameStop shares crashed below $100 and kept on going before a broad-based afternoon rally helped GME stock recover to close just above the psychological $100 level. GameStop Stock News Again we find ourselves writing about a stock with significant movement based solely on price action. There is little in the way of actual hard news flow. GameStop stock has not had a good start to the year, but despite this it remains one of the top trending stocks across most social media platforms. This has partly to do with loyalty and partly to do with the one-year anniversary of the GameStop saga. However, for the most part traders are fixated on the big picture theme of us versus them that captured the whole argument. GameStop is now down over 30% so far in 2022. GameStop Stock Forecast We remain bearish on this one, which I know many loyal holders may not want to hear. We have to focus on the chart and what we can take from that. Loyalty, if not profitable, is pointless to a trader. Emotion should always be controlled. Breaking $100 was psychological and led to some stops likely triggering. We had identified $86 as strong support for the last few weeks, and GME shares more or less bounced perfectly from it yesterday. GME stock bottomed out at $86.29, so we can take some kudos for that. But now where? Holding $86 was actually pretty important as below is a big volume gap that would likely see an acceleration toward $70. Holding gives some hope of a rebound, but $118.59 remains the short-term pivot for us. Below here bears are in charge. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are both still following price lower, so there is no sign of any divergence or oversold conditions just yet. GameStop (GME) chart, daily

Bitcoin price is not yet ready for an uptrend as bulls cannot keep price above $36,709. Although BTC price posted a bullish candle yesterday, investors are still concerned and cannot look beyond the FED meeting tomorrow. BTC could shed another 10% towards $32,649 before investors go in massively for the long. Bitcoin (BTC) price is still not yet set for a rebound as bears can trip bulls and push the price back below the pivotal level at $36,709. As markets are trying to catch a breather, it does not look like bears will be going away that easily and could pressure BTC price action to the downside. Expect a nervous session to unfold with price swinging back and forth at that pivotal level, but ultimately likely to break to the downside towards $32,649, with a loss of 10% on the day. Bitcoin price is set for a nervous session Bitcoin saw bulls coming in strong once price action slipped briefly below the monthly S2 at $33,742. Bulls bought everything in sight and pushed price action back up above $36,709 but failed to safely position the trade for a further uptick in the coming trading session. As BTC price is already undergoing some profit-taking, it looks as if investors are still awaiting confirmation that the pain trade is over. BTC price will probably trade a nervous session today, as markets will want to wait for the FED meeting later tomorrow and will not want to preposition for the possibility the FED disappoints or delivers an even more hawkish message. Expect choppy price action around $36,709, and possibly another leg lower towards the monthly S2 at $33,742. A test and break below yesterday's low at $32,649 is not an impossibility if Nasdaq sheds multiple percentages points off its value again. BTC/USD daily chart If global sentiment changes and pushes US equities in the green later this afternoon, expect a bullish flood to come into cryptocurrencies. That would see BTC price testing $39,780 to the upside with the monthly S1 support as resistance from any upside. If the rally is large and broad, expect even $44,088 to be on the cards, and for that to erase a large part of the downturn since the beginning of this year.

  The World Gold Council believes that gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 to those of last year. Well, I’m not so sure about it. Have you ever had the feeling that all of this has already happened and you are in a time loop, repeating Groundhog Day? I have. For instance, I’m pretty sure that I have already written the Fundamental Gold Report with a reference to pop-culture before… Anyway, I’m asking you this, because the World Gold Council warns us against the whole groundhog year for the gold market. In its “Gold Outlook 2022,” the gold industry organization writes that “gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 to those of last year.” The reason is that in 2021, gold was under the influence of two competing forces. These factors were the increasing interest rates and rising inflation, especially strong in operation in the second half of the year, which resulted in the sideways trend in the gold market, as the chart below shows. The WGC sees a similar tug of war in 2022: the hikes in the federal funds rate could create downward pressure for gold, but at the same time, elevated inflation will likely create a tailwind for gold. The WGC acknowledges that the ongoing tightening of monetary policy can be an important headwind for gold. However, it notes two important caveats. First, the Fed has a clear dovish bias and often overpromises when it comes to hawkish actions. For example, in the previous tightening cycle, “the Fed has tended not to tighten monetary policy as aggressively as members of the committee had initially expected.” Second, financial market expectations are more important for gold prices than actual events. As a result, “gold has historically underperformed in the months leading up to a Fed tightening cycle, only to significantly outperform in the months following the first rate hike.” I totally agree. I emphasized many times the Fed’s dovish bias and that the actual interest rate hikes could be actually better for gold than their prospects. After all, gold bottomed out in December 2015, when the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since the Great Recession. I also concur with the WGC that inflation may linger this year. Expectations that inflation will quickly dissipate are clearly too optimistic. As China is trying right now to contain the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, supply chain disruptions may worsen, contributing to elevated inflation. However, although I expect inflation to remain high, I believe that it will cool down in 2022. If so, the real interest rates are likely to increase, creating a downward pressure on gold prices. I also believe that the WGC is too optimistic when it comes to the real interest rates and their impact on the yellow metal. According to the report, despite the rate hikes, the real interest rates will stay low from a historical perspective, supporting gold prices. Although true, investors should remember that changes in economic variables are usually more important than their levels. Hence, the rebound in interest rates may still be harmful for the precious metals.   Implications for Gold What should be expected for gold in 2022? Will this year be similar to 2021? Well, just like last year, gold will find itself caught between a hawkish Fed and high inflation. Hence, some similarities are possible. However, in reality, we are not in a time loop and don’t have to report on Groundhog Day (phew, what a relief!). The arrow of time continues its inexorable movement into the future. Thus, market conditions evolve and history never repeats itself, but only rhymes. Thus, I bet that 2022 will be different than 2021 for gold, and we will see more volatility this year. In our particular situation, the mere expectations of a more hawkish Fed are evolving into actual actions. This is good news for the gold market, although the likely peak in inflation and normalization of real interest rates could be an important headwind for gold this year. Tomorrow, we will get to know the FOMC’s first decision on monetary policy this year, which could shake the gold market but also provide more clues for the future. Stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

EURUSD grinds daily support The US dollar inches lower as traders take profit ahead of the Fed meeting. The euro’s struggle to stay above 1.1360 indicates buyers’ weak interest in holding onto previous gains. The latest rebounds have failed to clear the former support that has turned into a resistance. A break below the previous consolidation range and daily support (1.1280) could send the pair to 1.1235. The RSI’s oversold situation attracted some buying interest. But the bulls will need to lift 1.1360 first before a reversal could become a reality. EURCHF attempts reversal The safe-haven Swiss franc retreats as global panic selling takes a breather. A bullish RSI divergence shows a slowdown in the sell-off momentum. Then a rally above 1.0355 has prompted some sellers to cover, taking the heat off the single currency. A bullish MA cross is an encouraging sign for a reversal. 1.0400 is the next hurdle and its breach could be a turning point for traders’ sentiment and a launchpad towards 1.0480. On the downside, 1.0340 is fresh support and then 1.0300 a critical floor to safeguard the rebound. US 30 hits last major support The Dow Jones 30 recoups losses as traders await details on the Fed’s monetary tightening. Breaks below daily supports at 34700 and 34000 have forced buyers to liquidate in bulk. The index saw bids at last June’s low (33200) while the RSI sank into the oversold area on the daily chart. As the quote stabilizes, traders may be looking to buy the dips. A close above 34500 may lead to 35500 which is a key supply zone from a previous breakout. A break below the daily support could trigger a broader correction in the weeks to come.

Bitcoin decreased 0.6% on Tuesday, ending the day around $36,600 while Ethereum lost 1.1%. Other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a 7.4% decline of Terra to a 2.3% rise of Polkadot. According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank 1.1% to $1.74 trillion over the past day. In total, the crypto market broke the recent days' decline after bitcoin hit lows of the last six months on Monday, dropping below $33,000. This was followed by a sharp rebound upwards to $37,500. The US market was the reason. Throughout January, stocks are falling in anticipation of the Fed's monetary policy tightening. The decline in risky assets also had a negative impact on bitcoin, which has already lost about 20% since the beginning of the month. A correlation between the benchmark cryptocurrency and Nasdaq has reached a new all-time high, according to Bloomberg. On Wednesday, all the attention will be riveted to the FOMC meeting. If the regulator tightens its rhetoric and announces the upcoming rate hike as early as March, all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, could suffer significantly. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged El Salvador to move away from bitcoin as a legal currency. MicroStrategy has stated that it would continue to buy BTC despite its decline in recent months. Its worth noting that a week ago, crypto funds recorded the first inflow of funds into their assets in the last six weeks.

The US dollar has been gaining steadily against the developed countries' currencies since the beginning of the year. By the way, the yen was an exception: it has been adding 1.8% over the past 11 days after the stock market entered the turbulence zone due to a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook. According to historical data, the Fed often finds itself at the forefront of the monetary policy cycle. That is used to be translating into a stronger USD in the months before and after the first tightening. So the question is in what currency pairs it is most profitable to buy the dollar now. Among the developed and liquid currencies, three scenarios can be considered. The first way is to sell EURUSD. The euro is weaker than the dollar due to the ECB being on several steps behind the Fed. That means that the EU rates will remain lower for a longer period of time, and the balance of bond yields will be shifted towards the dollar. Given the pace the Fed intends to take in tightening monetary policy, this yield gap promises to widen further. Another way is to bet that monetary tightening is stressing the declining markets drag the pound down. We should keep in mind that the Bank of England has already approved its first tightening policy step, and in this case it's not far behind the Fed. At the same time, it's closely correlated with falling market indices. Need to mention that GBPUSD is still far from being oversold with a wide room for further decline. The third way is often more obvious. Traders may consider selling the currencies of developing countries, which are much more sensitive to the Fed monetary policy changes. However, EMs have been raising rates for almost a year, so selling them now is a bet on market volatility in the near term. For the longer perspective, higher interest rates promise to level out short-term gains. In this case, the dollar's down turn may be faster than in the euro.

Apple reports earnings after the close on Thursday.With the Fed out of the way, the road is cleared for the stock superpower.AAPL could help turn the entire market sentiment after Microsoft beat. Apple is due to report earnings after the close on Thursday. With the Fed meeting ending today, investors will then focus on the tech sector to hopefully end the bearish mood currently hitting markets. Tech names along with a not-too-surprising Fed (https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed) could turn things around. Sentiment is beginning to look overdone, but it is imperative to get solid earnings from the tech sector. So far the bank sector has disappointed, while the energy sector looks like it should outperform. This week as we mentioned in our preview note is key with 104 of the S&P 500 companies reporting. Apple Stock NewsApple reports after the close on Thursday, January 27. Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to come in at $1.89 on revenue of $118.28 billion. Wall Street analysts also expect Apple to have sold 80 million iPhones in the last quarter. Bank of America certainly is looking to the upside as it outlines in a note out this morning. The bank sees iPhone sales coming in at 81 million and sees a strong revenue number of $121 million, well ahead of forecasts. Analysts have been active this week on the name ahead of earnings. Earlier we reported on Goldman Sachs maintaining their $142 price target ahead of earnings, while Morgan Stanley expects strong iPhone deliveries to maintain bullish earnings.As ever the commentary around earnings will be as important as the earnings themselves. Last time out the dreaded supply chain and chip issues came to light, so we will look for more clarity around these areas.Apple Stock Forecast$157 is big, very big. A break and it likely heads to $148, which is a huge volume profile support and the point of control. But breaking $157 does put in a new lower low and so continue the downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) both look quite stretched, but the RSI is not yet oversold. The MACD, meanwhile, is at its lowest since March of last year, and the histogram is also at its widest in a year. Earnings then could be the catalyst to turn this trend around. Apple (AAPL) chart, daily

Glass half full call on S&P 500 yesterday was vindicated – this yet another reversal has the power to go on, and credit markets appear sniffing out the upcoming reprieve. While rates have justifiably risen, they have done so quite fast in Jan – time to calm down and reprice the excessively hawkish Fed fears. Even if it was just energy and financials that rose yesterday, the table is set for gains across many assets – just check the progress from yesterday‘s already optimistic upturn, or the already fine early view of yesterday‘s market internals.VIX is calming down, Fed is unlikely to rock the boat too much – such were my yesterday‘s thoughts about:(…) seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).The sizable open profits – whether in S&P 500 or crude oil – can keep on growing while gold slowly approaches $1,870 again (look for a good day today), and copper stabilizes above $4.50 to keep pushing higher even if not yet outperforming other commodities. More dry firepowder and fresh profits ahead anywhere I look – even cryptos are to enjoy the unfolding risk-on upswing.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis is what a tradable S&P 500 bottom looks like – just as it was most likely to turn out. After the 200-day moving average, 4,500 point of control is the next target.Credit MarketsHYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – this is how a budding reversal looks like, especially since the selling hasn‘t picked up ahead of the Fed. Turning already.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver pause was barely noticeable – it‘s a great sight of upcoming strength in the metals while miners unfortunately would continue underperforming to a degree, i.e. not leading decisively.Crude OilCrude oil bulls are back, how did you like the pause? The ride higher isn‘t over by a long shot, and I like the volume of late being this much aligned.CopperCopper looks to be catching breath before another (modest but still) upswing. The buyers aren‘t yet rushing headlong.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum reversed, and are participating in the risk-on upturn, with Ethereum sending out quite nice short-term signs. From the overall portfolio view and upcoming volatility though, I would prefer to wait before making any move here.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood yesterday‘s test, and are well positioned to extend gains, especially on the upcoming well received FOMC statement and soothing press conference. It had also turned out that a tech upswing is more likely to be continued today than yesterday – the Fed‘s words would calm down bonds, and that would enable a better Nasdaq upswing.As I wrote yesterday, the table is set for an upside FOMC surprise – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals – and I would add today once again in a while that real assets upswing would coincide with the dollar moving lower later today (check those upper knots of late). So far so good in risk-on, inflation trades – and things will get even better as my regular readers know (I can‘t underline how much you can benefit from regularly reading the full analyses as these are about how I arrive at the profitable conclusions presented & how you can twist them to your own purposes).Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Binance Coin has been range trading for the past four days between $335 and $389. BNB price shows bulls pushing bears against the high of this week, ready for a breakout. Expect bears to be stopped out and open momentum for bulls to run the price up to $452. Binance Coin (BNB) price was able to find a floor at $335 with the monthly S2 monthly support level as an area where bulls were interested in getting involved in the price action. BNB price is now quickly ramping up and squeezing bears out of their entries at $389, which is acting as the weekly high. With the squeeze, a pop is set to unfold towards $452, the first significant level of resistance that could halt the rally near-term. BNB price set for a bullish breakout Binance Coin sees bulls trading away from the monthly S2 support level at $335 tested twice and bulls jumping on the buying volume to get involved in the price action. Backed by the green ascending trendline, a bullish entry makes sense as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has just exited oversold territory. As such, sellers do not have much incentive to stay further in their short positions as further gains look limited for now. BNB price thus offers a solid entry point, and bulls are now ready to break above $389, the weekly high and short-term cap that has kept BNB price limited to the upside this week. As bears are being pushed against that level, expect their stops to be run once bulls break above it, which will trigger a massive demand for buying volume and squeeze price action even higher. The monthly S1 does not hold much historical reference, so $452 makes the most sense with the 200-day Simple Moving Average just above as a cap, that needs to be broken to start speaking of an uptrend. BNB/USD daily chart In the wake of the Fed meeting later today, most investors will be holding their breath further into the afternoon. If the Fed delivers a hawkish tone or even hike today, that will set a negative tone for global markets and see a sharp decline in risk assets led by equities and cryptocurrencies. Expect BNB price action to result in bulls being pushed against the monthly S2 support and the green ascending trend line around $320-$335.

Recent volatility in the US markets ahead of the Fed comments/actions have prompted a relatively big pullback in almost every sector. Many traders are concerned the Fed may take immediate action to raise rates. Yet, a small portion of traders believes the Fed may be trapped in a position to act more conservatively in addressing inflation going forward. I think the Fed will continue to talk firmly about potentially raising rates. The Fed is more interested in decreasing the assets on their balance sheet before they risk doing anything to disrupt support for the global markets.Suppose my analysis of the Fed predicament is correct. In that case, the recent collapse of the US markets represents a fear-based emotional selloff of many sectors that may still represent a strong opportunity for a recovery rally in 2022. One of those sectors is the Financial sector – particularly XLF.I wrote about this on January 7, 2022, in this article: FINANCIAL SECTOR STARTS TO RALLY TOWARDS THE $43.60 UPSIDE TARGETI also wrote how the US Fed might be playing with fire regarding their stern positioning and statements recently in this article on January 14, 2022: US FEDERAL RESERVE - PLAYING WITH FIRE PART 2Critical Components Of Recent Inflationary TrendsIf you attempt to follow my logic as I read into the Fed's intentions. There are three critical components to navigating the rise of inflationary trends recently.The COVID-19 virus event created several disparities in the global markets. First, the disruption to the labor and supply-side markets began an almost immediate inflationary aspect for the global economy. Secondly, the US's stimulus and easy money policies have stimulated demand for products, technology, houses, autos, and other real assets. These two factors combined have increased inflationary pressures on the global markets.Rising consumer demand for real and virtual assets such as Cryptos, NFTs, and others has pushed the speculative investing cycle into a hyper-active rally phase. This was clearly witnessed in early 2021, with the Reddit/Meme rallies became the hottest trades, then quickly dissipated after July 2021. This speculative rally has pushed the post-COVID rally well beyond reasonable expectations over the past 16+ months.Excessive debt levels push a deflationary process to the forefront. Consumers are now starting to pull away from the excesses of the past 16+ months. The Fed's tough talk and recent deeper declines in various sectors over the past 12+ months show that inflationary trends are subsiding. Despite the supply-side issues being resolved, consumers continue to pull away from hyper-speculative activities. The markets will naturally revalue to support more realistic price levels, deflating excessive P/E ratios and recent extreme price peaks in assets.Possible Next Steps for the US FedMy interpretation of the global markets is that excess speculative trending and rising commodity prices, combined with excess debt levels and consumers who have suddenly become very aware of global market risks, are already acting as a deflationary process. Because of these underlying factors, which I believe are currently in play throughout the globe, the US Federal Reserve may be forced to wait things out a bit. The Fed may have to navigate these natural deflationary processes while attempting to provide monetary support for what I believe will be a downside/deflationary trend over the next 3+ years.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! The US Federal Reserve may not have to take any aggressive action right now. Instead, it may decide to watch how the global markets contract as consumers pull away from inflated price levels and higher risks and attempt to navigate these natural deflationary price trends. If the Fed were to act aggressively right now and raise rates, they could push the global markets into a steeper collapse. This process would likely burst numerous asset bubbles very quickly and push many foreign nations into some type of debt default.This presents a new problem for the US Fed – going from inflationary concerns to global economic collapse concerns very quickly. So when I suggested the Fed is playing with fire – maybe I should have said “playing with the nuclear economic football”?Financial Sector ResilienceStill, I believe the US Financial sector is showing tremendous resilience near $37.50. I think it has a powerful opportunity to rally back above $42 to $44 if the Fed takes a more measured approach to let the global markets deflate a bit before taking any aggressive actions.The US Financial sector will likely continue to benefit from price volatility and consumer demand as these deflationary trends prompt consumers to engage in more normal economic activities. The Financial sector also has continued to stay under moderate pricing pressure since the 2008 highs. XLF is only 25.46% higher than the 2008 highs, whereas the NASDAQ is more than 575% above the 2008 market highs.The Financial Sector may be one of the strongest market sectors over the next few years. Deflationary trends push consumers and global markets away from excess debt levels and towards more traditional economic activities/trends.Want To Learn More About Financial Sector ETFs?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

USDCAD breaks higherThe Canadian dollar slipped after the BOC kept interest rates unchanged. Its US counterpart found support at 1.2560 after a brief pullback.An oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters. The current rebound is a sign that there is a strong interest in pushing for a bullish reversal. 1.2700 is a key supply zone as it coincides with the 30-day moving average.A breakout would definitely turn sentiment around and trigger a runaway rally. In turn, this sets the daily resistance at 1.2810 as the next target.NZDUSD continues lowerThe New Zealand dollar steadied after the Q4 CPI beat expectations.However, the pair is still in bearish territory after it broke below the lower end (0.6750) of the flag consolidation from the daily time frame. The RSI’s oversold situation brought in a buying-the-dips crowd around 0.6660 but its breach indicates a lack of buying interest.The kiwi is now testing November 2020’s low at 0.6600. The bears could be waiting to fade the next bounce with 0.6700 as a fresh resistance.XAUUSD pulls back for supportGold tumbled after the US Fed signaled it may raise interest rates in March. The rally stalled at 1853 and a break below the resistance-turned-support at 1830 flushed some buyers out.1810 at the base of the previous bullish breakout is a second line of defense. The short-term uptrend may still be intact as long as the metal stays above this key support.A deeper correction would drive the price down to the daily support at 1785. The bulls need a rebound above 1838 to regain control of price action.

The rate of the Russian currency reached 80.40 per dollar and 90.70 per euro yesterday after the close of the regular session. However, from these levels, the ruble seemed attractive for purchases. This brought the price back down from the psychologically significant round marks. The dollar was temporarily near peak levels, from where it has been unfolding since the end of 2014. Of course, the fact that the ruble previously went up from 80 does not allow one to blindly hope that the same will happen this time. However, it is a good reason to closely monitor the dynamics of the Russian currency, as well as the rhetoric of officials and the central bank when approaching these levels. Now it seems that geopolitics is more than embedded in premiums, which reduces the prices of Russian assets, including the ruble. However, there are other factors playing a part. In recent weeks, there has been increased attention to the Fed, which has entered the warpath against inflation, although for most of the past year, it was simply denied. If the tough tone of the American regulator causes pressure on the markets, this will be a new reason for the ruble to fall, even if not as sharp as under the influence of geopolitics. The best tactic for investors now is to watch the dynamics of the Russian currency near significant round levels. A sharp turn down in the EURRUB and USDRUB pairs will indicate strong purchases and will be another confirmation of how unbreakable these levels are. If we see a further slide of the ruble, we can say that the lowest point for it has not yet been reached. In general, it is worth being aware that the bottom may come very soon.

Bitcoin decreased by 0.6% on Wednesday, ending the day at around $36,400. Ethereum added 0.2%, while other top-ten altcoins mostly saw declines from 3.1% (Binance Coin) to 6.6% (Terra, an outsider of the day). According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 0.5%, to $1.73 trillion. Bitcoin showed positive dynamics all day against the backdrop of growing stock indices. Up until the Fed meeting, the first cryptocurrency was gaining over 6%, hitting 5-day highs above $38,800. However, BTC began to fall almost immediately after the announcement of the results of the Fed's two-day meeting. The regulator announced a curtailment of bond purchases in early March, as well as an imminent rate hike, followed by a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. The fall of bitcoin accelerated along with stock indices in half an hour when the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, started his press conference. He noted that rising inflation could force the regulator to raise interest rates more aggressively. The first cryptocurrency may finally complete its upward correction if risky assets resume and intensify the fall after the Fed meeting. In Russia, buyers are now engaged in the withdrawal of capital and deprive the country's economy of financing, as announced by the Bank of Russia. Last week, the regulator proposed to ban the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies in the territory of the Russian Federation. The State Duma and the Ministry of Finance, on the contrary, are in favour of regulation, not a ban on the industry. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday urged the government and the Central Bank to come to a consensus on the regulation of cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, Turkish President Erdogan instructed the ruling party to study the impact of cryptocurrencies on the economy. At the same time, the US Internal Revenue Service said that non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are used for illegal activities, and celebrities are spreading this by promoting NFTs.

The FOMC set the stage for a March interest rate hike, which was an aggressive signal. Gold got it and fell – but hasn't capitulated yet.The Battlecruiser Hawk is moving full steam ahead! The FOMC issued yesterday (January 26, 2022) its newest statement on monetary policy in which it strengthened its hawkish stance. First of all, the Fed admitted that it would start hiking interest rates “soon”:With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.Previously, the US central bank conditioned its tightening cycle on the situation in the labor market. The relevant part of the statement was as follows in December:With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the Committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment.The alteration implies that, in the Fed’s view, the US economy has reached maximum employment and is ready to lift the federal funds rate. Indeed, Powell reaffirmed it, saying:There’s quite a bit of room to raise interests without threatening the labor market. This is by so many measures a historically tight labor market — record levels of job openings, quits, wages are moving up at the highest pace they have in decades.Powell also clarified the timing, stating that “the Committee is of the mind to raise the federal funds rate at the March meeting.” This is not completely unexpected, but does mark a significant hawkish change in the Fed’s communication, which is negative for gold.Second, the FOMC reaffirmed its plan, announced in December, to end quantitative easing in early March. It means that in February, the Fed will buy only $20 billion of Treasuries and $10 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, instead of the $40 and $20 purchased in January:The Committee decided to continue to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases, bringing them to an end in early March. Beginning in February, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $20 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $10 billion per month.Third, the FOMC is preparing for quantitative tightening. Together with the statement on monetary policy, it published “Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet”. The Fed hasn’t yet determined the timing and pace of reducing the size of its mammoth balance sheet. However, we know that it will happen after the first hike in interest rates, so probably as soon as May or June. After all, as Powell admitted during his press conference, “the balance sheet is substantially larger than it needs to be (...). There’s a substantial amount of shrinkage in the balance sheet to be done.”Implications for GoldWhat does the recent FOMC statement imply for the gold market? The end of QE, the start of the hiking cycle, and then of QT – all packed within just a few months – is a big hawkish wave that could sink the gold bulls. The Fed hasn’t been so aggressive for years.Of course, maybe it’s just a great bluff, and the Fed will retreat to its traditional dovish stance soon when tightening monetary and financial conditions hit Wall Street and the real economy. However, with CPI inflation above 7%, mounting political pressure, and public outrage at costs of living, the US central bank has no choice but to tighten monetary policy, at least for the time being.It seems that gold got the message. The price of the yellow metal plunged more than $30 yesterday, as the chart below shows. Interestingly, gold started its decline before the statement was published, which may indicate more structural weakness. What is also disturbing is that gold was hit even though the FOMC statement came largely as expected.On the other hand, gold didn’t collapse, but it dropped only by thirty-some dollars, or about 1.6%. Given the importance and hawkishness of the FOMC meeting, it could have been worse. Yes, the hawkish message was expected, and some analysts even forecasted more aggressive actions, but gold clearly didn’t capitulate. Thus, there is hope (and turbulence in the stock market can also help here), although the upcoming weeks may be challenging for gold, which would have to deal with rising bond yields.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Wild FOMC day is over, and markets are repricing the perceived fresh hawkishness when there was none really. It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation – as the Fed just stood pat, open oil profits are rising.But stocks took a dive before recovering, carving out a fourth in a row lower knot – the bulls are invited to participate, and open stock market profits are moving up again. Also note the divergence between HYG trading at its recent lows while S&P 500 clearly isn‘t. The immediate pressure would be to go higher, and that concerns also copper, and to a smaller degree cryptos. All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity.That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookSetback and reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is though still carving out a tradable bottom. I‘m looking for the index to return above 4,400 and then take on the 4,500 point of control next.Credit MarketsHYG reversed, the panic is there – higher yields across the board without a clear risk-on turn holding. Today is a time for reprieve.Gold, Silver and MinersGold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge. The metals are anticipating the upcoming liquidity squeeze, which won‘t be pretty until the Fed changes course. Not that it truly started, for that matter.Crude OilCrude oil bulls have confirmed they were back, and are ready for more – clearly not daunted by the Fed messaging, and that has implications for inflation ahead. It would really be more persistent than generally appreciated, I‘m telling you.CopperCopper is still in the catching breath phase – not yielding, and that‘s still saying something about inflation and real economy.Bitcoin and EthereumBitcoin and Ethereum are on guard, and ready to move somewhat higher next – for now, lacking conviction, there is no Ethereum outperformance either.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are ready to come back, and prove that the first FOMC move, is the fake one – no, I don‘t mean the moonshot to 4,450 in the first moments. That would be the move I‘m looking for still, and it would be led by the coming tech upswing. Check the commodities resilience to the rising rates prospects – gold and silver need a reprieve in bonds badly to catch breath again, and it would come at the expense of the dollar. For now, markets are afraid of the looming liquidity crunch and Fed policy mistake as the yield curve continues compressing.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The Fed finally said it: the rates are going up. The USD Index and gold heard it and reacted. The former is at new yearly highs, while gold slides. The medium-term outlook for gold is now extremely bearish. The above might sound like a gloom and doom scenario for precious metals investors, but I view it as particularly favorable. Why? Because: This situation allows us to profit on the upcoming decline in the precious metals sector through trading capital. This situation allows us to detect a great buying entry point in the future. When gold has everything against it and then it manages to remain strong – it will be exactly the moment to buy it. To be more precise: to buy into the precious metals sector (I plan to focus on purchasing mining stocks first as they tend to be strongest during initial parts of major rallies). At that moment PMs will be strong and the situation will be so bad that it can only improve from there – thus contributing to higher PM prices in the following months. Most market participants have not realized the above. “Gold and (especially) silver can only go higher!” is still a common narrative on various forums. Having said that, let’s take a look at the short-term charts. In short, gold declined significantly, and it’s now trading once again below the rising support / resistance line, the declining red resistance line, and back below 2021 closing price (taking also today’s pre-market decline into account). In other words: All important short-term breakouts were just invalidated. The 2022 is once again a down year for gold. Is this as bearish as it gets for gold? Well, there could be some extra bearish things that could happen, but it’s already very, very bearish right now. For example, gold market could catch-up with its reactions to USD Index’s strength. The U.S. currency just moved above its previous 2022 and 2021 highs, while gold is not at its 2021 lows. Yet. I wouldn’t view gold’s performance as true strength against the USD Index at this time just yet. Why? Because of the huge consolidation that gold has been trading in. The strength that I want to see in gold is its ability not to fall or soar back up despite everything thrown against it, not because it’s stuck in a trading range. In analogy, you’ve probably seen someone, who’s able to hold their ground, and not give up despite the world throwing every harm and obstacle at them. They show their character. They show their strength. Inaction could represent greater wisdom and/or love and focus on one’s goal that was associated with the lack of action. You probably know someone like that. You might be someone like that. The above “inaction” is very different from “inaction” resulting from someone not knowing what to do, not having enough energy, or willpower. Since markets are ultimately created by people (or algorithms that were… ultimately still created by people) is it any surprise that markets tend to work in the same way? One inaction doesn’t equal another inaction, and – as always – context matters. However, wasn’t gold strong against the USD Index’s strength in 2021? It was, but it was very weak compared to the ridiculous amounts of money that were printed in 2020 and 2021 and given the global pandemic. These are the circumstances, where gold “should be” soaring well above its 2011 highs, not invalidating the breakout above it. The latter, not the former, happened. Besides, the “strength” was present practically only in gold. Silver and miners remain well below their 2011 highs – they are not even close to them and didn’t move close to them at any point in 2020 or 2021. Gold has been consolidating for many months now, just like it’s been the case between 2011 and 2013. The upper part of the above chart features the width of the Bollinger Bands – I didn’t mark them on the chart to keep it clear, but the important detail is that whenever their width gets very low, it means that the volatility has been very low in the previous months, and that it’s about to change. I marked those cases with vertical dashed lines when the big declines in the indicator took it to or close to the horizontal, red, dashed line. In particular, the 2011-2013 decline is similar to the current situation. What does it mean? It means that gold wasn’t really showing strength – it was stuck. Just like 2012 wasn’t a pause before a bigger rally, the 2021 performance of gold shouldn’t be viewed as such. What happened yesterday showed that gold can and will likely react to hawkish comments from the Fed, that the USD Index is likely to rally and so are the interest rates. The outlook for gold in the medium term is not bullish, but very bearish. The above is a positive for practically everyone interested in the precious metals market (except for those who sell at the bottom that is), as it will allow one to add to their positions (or start building them) at much lower prices. And some will likely (I can’t guarantee any performance, of course) gain small (or not so small) fortunes by being positioned to take advantage of the upcoming slide. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USDJPY tests major resistance The Japanese yen inched higher after January’s Tokyo CPI beat expectations. The US dollar found support in the daily demand zone around 113.50. And that is a sign that upbeat sentiment in the medium-term remains intact. A close above the psychological level of 115.00 attracted momentum traders and sped up the rebound. 115.60 at the origin of the January liquidation is key resistance. In fact, its breach could put the uptrend back on track. The RSI’s overextension may cause a limited pullback with 114.50 as the closest support. USOIL breaks to new high Oil climbed amid fears of disruption as tensions between Russia and the West grew. After a short-lived pause, WTI crude saw bids near a previous low at 82.00 which lies on the 20-day moving average. A break above the January peak at 87.80 indicates solid interest in keeping the rally in shape. As the bulls’ run continued, more trend-followers would push the price to 89.00. An overbought RSI temporarily restrained the fever, and buyers could see a pullback towards 85.00 as an opportunity. SPX 500 struggles for support Upcoming US rate hike still weighs on equity markets. A tentative break below last October’s low (4300) has put the S&P 500 on the defense. A bearish MA cross on the daily chart shows that sentiment could be deteriorating as price action struggles to stabilize. An oversold RSI led to a limited rebound as intraday sellers took profit. Nonetheless, buyers should be wary of catching a falling knife, leaving the index vulnerable to another sell-off if it drops below 4230. 4490 is the first resistance to clear to initiate a recovery.

On Thursday, Bitcoin lost 0.4%, ending the day around $36,200, and Ethereum fell 2.5%. The other leading altcoins in the top ten also mostly saw declines, from XRP down 0.9% to Terra with -8.3%. According to CoinGecko, the total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.3% per day, to $1.72 trillion. Bitcoin tried to strengthen on Thursday morning but began to decline in the American session along with US stock indices. The US stock market fell following the results of trading on Thursday, although it opened with growth. The high-tech Nasdaq suffered particularly heavy losses. Investors continue to withdraw from US stocks amid the expected tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The day before, the central bank, following its meeting, signalled that it would start raising interest rates in March, curtailing the entire stimulus program at the beginning of the month. In the future, the regulator will begin to reduce the Fed's balance sheet. In such circumstances, investors will continue to reduce their positions on risky assets, and Cryptocurrencies may be hit first. Meanwhile, bitcoin is trying to stay above the $35,000 mark, taking advantage of some slowdown in the fall of the stock markets. However, if the fall in stocks accelerates, the crypto market will also accelerate its decline. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected Fidelity's application to launch a bitcoin ETF. Fidelity itself warned investors that bitcoin was in a “liquidity storm” due to high volatility in the stock market.

The year 2022 is seemingly a mixed bag, even as markets start reopening. The year looks promising, though, with issues like inflation and COVID to contemplate. Historic rallies in 2021 after lockdowns are looking to inspire trading in various industries, with some assets to look out for by investors. Growth will surely return at some point, but so will disappointing instances where tumbles will dominate trading desks. The S & P's historic gains of 30 percent dominated the press at the close of 2021, making investors using Naga and other optimistic platforms. The ended year had one of the longest bull markets. However, the Fed rate tightening and the direction the pandemic will take are some things to expect, notwithstanding that the stock market might grow by a whopping 10 percent in 2022. Trading Movements In Week One 2022 European markets have opened with a lot of optimism in 2022, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed at 489.99 points; this is 0.5 percent higher than the opening figure. The European benchmark was some percentage lower than the overall S&P 2021 performance, though with a surge of 22.4 percent. Record gains in the stock markets have relied on the positions taken by the governments during the pandemic. In the USA and Europe, increasing vaccination rates and economic stimulus measures have improved investor confidence. However, there are indications for more volatility in 2022, a situation investors must watch keenly. There has been little activity in London markets in the first week of 2022, while in Italy, France, and Spain gains of between 0.5-1.4 percent made notable highlights. European markets had diverse industries drive up the closing gains witnessed; the airline sector, in particular, has had a significant influence. Germany’s Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) had an impressive 8.8 percent jump while Air France KLM (AIRF.PA), a 4.9 percent gain. Factory activity is another factor to thank for the first week's gains all over Europe. Noteworthy, the Omicron variant influenced trading in the entirety of December, but the reports that it is milder than Delta has energized market activities coming into January. S&P and DOW Jones 2022 First Week Highs Across the Atlantic, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a record high, highlighting a similar aggressiveness as the European markets. While the jump was industrial-wide, Tech stocks continued to dominate, as Apple finally touched the $3 trillion valuation, though for a short time. Tesla Inc. (TSLA.O) posted a 13.5 percent jump thanks to increased production in China and an unprecedented goal to surpass its target. The US market, like the European market, is also in a fix; the Omicron variant of COVID-19 continues to cause concern with the wait-and-see approach, the only notable strategy. Currently, every country is reporting a jump in the number of Covid cases, with the UK going above 100K cases for the first time and the US recording some new records as well. School delays and increased isolation by key workers will surely debilitate the markets, with the global chip shortage another point to contemplate. However, markets can still ride on the increased development of therapies to help fight Covid. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (CDC) has been quick, as now children can have their third doses as well. Industries to Look Out For In 2022 European automakers have seen early peaks, while the airline sector has also picked up fast. In the US, tech shares continue to dominate, and 2022 might witness new records never seen before. However, the energy sectors have also dominated the news in 2021, and in 2022; the confidence in them will continue to rise because of an anticipation of stabilization in energy prices. The same goes for crude oil prices. Regardless, shareholders will continue watching the decisions by the Federal Reserve, a review in the current interest rates will surely tame inflation. Conclusion 2022 will see its highs and lows in investments. Some assets will make the news and investors will be keen to use any information to make key decisions. Tech will continue to shine, but it is important to anticipate the direction of the pandemic, as it will be an important factor in investor decisions.

The US dollar rewrote its 1.5-year highs on Thursday, sending EURUSD under 1.1150. After the FOMC meeting, the pair fell in total by 1.5%, leaving a two-month consolidation with a sharp movement. Friday's small rollback from extremes is likely a local profit fixation by the end of the week and month. History suggests that the US currency begins to add about 2-3 quarters before the first rate hike and continues to be in positive territory for about the same time after. We believe that this long story should be adjusted to the new reality in which interest rates are the starting point. Namely, the first point of tightening monetary conditions is now the beginning of the curtailment of purchases on the balance sheet and not the first increase. The start of the dollar's growth last year was the beginning of a public discussion of curtailment. And now, seven months later, the dollar is halfway up with an 8.5% increase from the area of last year's lows. The second half of this wave is unlikely to be as powerful. We only assume that the dollar has a 3-4% growth potential in the area of 100.3-101 due to monetary policy changes. This will return the US currency to the area of steady highs in 2020, excluding two weeks of the most violent market crash. The EURUSD rate in this scenario may fall to 1.07-1.08 before finding a more substantial base of buyers. However, investors and traders should also remember that monetary policy is far from the only driver for currencies. The markets' attention can quickly switch to the debt sustainability of the Eurozone countries and the pace of economic recovery in the world.

  Gold’s fate in 2021 will be determined mainly by inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it. In the epic struggle between chaos and order, chaos has an easier task, as there is usually only one proper method to do a job – the job that you can screw up in many ways. Thus, although economists see a strong economic expansion with cooling prices and normalization in monetary policies in 2022, many things could go wrong. The Omicron strain of coronavirus or its new variants could become more contagious and deadly, pushing the world into the Great Lockdown again. The real estate crisis in China could lead the country into recession, with serious economic consequences for the global economy. Oh, by the way, we could see an escalation between China and Taiwan, or between China and the US, especially after the recent test of hypersonic missiles by the former country. Having said that, I believe that the major forces affecting the gold market in 2022 will be – similarly to last year’s – inflation and the Fed’s response to it. Considering things in isolation, high inflation should be supportive of gold prices. The problem here is that gold prefers high and rising inflation. Although the inflation rate should continue its upward move for a while, it’s likely to peak this year. Indeed, based on very simple monetarist reasoning, I expect the peak to be somewhere in the first quarter of 2022. This is because the lag between the acceleration in money supply growth (March 2020) and CPI growth (March 2021) was a year. The peak in the former occurred in February 2021, as the chart below shows. You can do the math (by the way, this is the exercise that turned out to be too difficult for Jerome Powell and his “smart” colleagues from the Fed). This is – as I’ve said – very uncomplicated thinking that assumes the stability of the lag between monetary impulses and price reactions. However, given the Fed’s passive reaction to inflation and the fact that the pace of money supply growth didn’t return to the pre-pandemic level, but stayed at twice as high, the peak in inflation may occur later. In other words, more persistent inflation is the major risk for the economy that many economists still downplay. The consensus expectation is that inflation returns to a level close to the Fed’s target by the end of the year. For 2021, the forecasts were similar. Instead, inflation has risen to about 7%. Thus, never underestimate the power of the inflation dragon, especially if the beast is left unchecked! As everyone knows, dragons love gold – and this feeling is mutual. The Saxo Bank, in its annual “Outrageous Predictions”, sees the potential for US consumer prices to rise 15% in 2022, as “companies bid up wages in an effort to find willing and qualified workers, triggering a wage-price spiral unlike anything seen since the 1970’s”. Actually, given the fact that millions of Americans left the labor market – which the Fed doesn’t understand and still expects that they will come back – this prediction is not as extreme as one could expect. I still hope that inflationary pressure will moderate this year, but I’m afraid that the fall may not be substantial. On the other hand, we have the Fed with its hawkish rhetoric and tapering of quantitative easing. The US central bank is expected to start a tightening cycle, hiking the federal funds rate at least twice this year. It doesn’t sound good for gold, does it? A hawkish Fed implies a stronger greenback and rising real interest rates, which is negative for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession, with the infamous “taper tantrum”, was very supportive of the US dollar but lethal for gold. However, the price of gold bottomed in December 2015, exactly when the Fed hiked the interest rates for the first time after the global financial crisis. Markets are always future-oriented, so they often react more to expected rather than actual events. Another thing is that the Fed’s tightening cycle of 2015-2018 was dovish and the federal funds rate (and the Fed’s balance sheet) never returned to pre-crisis levels. The same applies to the current situation: despite all the hawkish reactions, the Fed is terribly behind the curve. Last but not least, history teaches us that a tightening Fed spells trouble for markets. As a reminder, the last tightening cycle led to the reversal of the yield curve in 2019 and the repo crisis, which forced the US central bank to cut interest rates, even before anyone has heard of covid-19. Hence, the Fed is in a very difficult situation. It either stays behind the curve, which risks letting inflation get out of control, or tightens its monetary policy in a decisive manner, just like Paul Volcker did in the 1980s, which risks a correction of already-elevated asset prices and the next economic crisis. Such expectations have boosted gold prices since December 2015, and they could support the yellow metal today as well. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

Tesla stock swung around violently post the earnings release. TSLA shares quickly dropped 6% despite beating earnings estimates. Tesla then recovered to trade down 2% as buyers stepped in. Tesla (TSLA) swung around pretty wildly in the after-hours market on Wednesday following its earnings release. The stock dropped 6% fairly rapidly despite beating on the top and bottom lines. Buyers then went bargain hunting as the market struggled to grasp what metric to focus on. By the time things settled down, we were nearly back to where things started. At the time of writing, Tesla is back to $930 in the premarket on Thursday, so only $7 or less than 1% lower from where Tesla stock was trading at the close of the regular session and before the earnings drop. Tesla Stock News Tesla beat on earnings per share (EPS), coming in at $2.54 versus the $2.26 average estimate. Revenue also beat forecasts, coming in at $17.72 billion versus the $16.35 billion estimate. This was a pretty strong performance beat on both top and bottom lines. Margins also held up well, coming in at 30.8% versus estimates for 30%. So far so good. However, Tesla then mentioned that its factories were not at full capacity and it saw this continuing into 2022. Supply chain issues were to blame, and investors took a dim view of this and sold the stock sharply lower. However, buyers then stepped in as arguments over demand versus supply issues surfaced. The demand profile remains strong and Tesla stuck to its strong outlook for demand going forward. If it can address supply issues and with new factories in Texas and Berlin coming on line, it may be in a position to drive more supply to meet demand. It is certainly better to have a problem meeting demand than it is to have a lack of demand. This is a case of "if you build it, they will come" for Tesla going forward. Tesla Stock Forecast TSLA bottomed out at $879 after the release, but in reality it spent very little time down there. This is interesting to us on a technical view as it prints a higher low than Monday's sell-off and puts in place the potential for a bottoming formation. From the 4-hour chart below we can see this price action in play. The lows from Monday at $855 are our short-term pivot. Above there things have a chance to turn bullish in a more medium-term view. Below and it is on to $813 to test the 200-day moving average. Tesla chart, 4 hourly

The Russian ruble rolled back yesterday with a sharp movement from the iconic round levels. Such a reversal often signifies the end of the previous trend and the beginning of a new movement. If you look at USDRUB only as a course chart, then the corrective momentum has the potential to return the pair to 75 from the current 78 over the next couple of weeks. Seasonality, or rather the macroeconomic environment, is also turning towards the ruble. Exporters will have to convert last year's record earnings to pay taxes, some of which are paid once a year. The weakening of the ruble since the beginning of the year is a good opportunity to add interest to profits due to exchange rate differences. This is all in addition to record oil prices for 8 years and the suspension of foreign currency purchases for the Finance Ministry. We should also not forget about the high interest rates that the Bank of Russia has been aggressively raising since March last year. And the markets are waiting for another 100-point increase in two weeks to 9.5%, which further increases the profitability of the ruble money market. But, unfortunately, fundamental and macroeconomic factors are far from being the only components of the complex exchange rate equation. Geopolitics also play an important role. A clear improvement in relations between countries and the issue around Ukraine has not yet developed. Worse still, investors remain alert that the rhetoric of US and EU officials on the one hand and Russia on the other can quickly fall out of the constructive rut. At the same time, experienced market participants know that when the level of uncertainty rolls over, market dynamics (up or down at the end of the day) is the best filter for the news noise around us.

The recent Fed comments should have helped settle the global market expectations related to if and when the Fed will start raising rates and/or taking further steps to curb inflation trends. Additionally, the Fed has been telegraphing its intentions very clearly over the past few months, providing ample time for traders and investors to alter their approach to pending monetary tightening actions. Read the full Fed Statement here.In my opinion, foreign markets are more likely to see increased risks and declining price trends for two reasons. First, at-risk nations/borrowers struggle to reduce debt levels. Second, foreign market traders/investors struggle to adapt to the transition away from speculative “growth” trends. I think the US Dollar may continue to show strength over the next 4+ months as the foreign traders pile into US economic strength while the Fed initiates their tightening actions. So it makes sense to me that global markets would recoil from Fed tightening while debt-heavy corporations/nations seek relief from rising debt obligations.Foreign Markets Struggle For Support Before US Fed Monetary TighteningIn a continuing downward slide, global market equity indexes continue to move lower after the US Fed comments this week. In this article, I wrote about this dynamic on August 3, 2021: US Markets Stall Near End Of July As Global Markets Retreat - Are We Ready For An August Surprise? At that time, I suggested the US markets were stalling while the global markets continued to decline.Now, nearly five months later, we've seen the US market trend moderately higher, attempting to struggle to new highs and exhibit deep downward price trends, while the global markets have continued to trend lower. As we move closer to the US Fed pushing interest rates higher, I expect these trends to become even more volatile and pronounced.US Equities May Find Support After The Fed Raises RatesThe current dynamic in the global markets is that capital is seeking investments where safety and profitable returns dominate over risks. As the global markets transition ahead of the Fed rate increases, I believe the US markets will continue to dominate global assets in opportunities, safety, and returns. Once the Fed starts to raise interest rates, a brief period of volatility throughout the global markets may occur. Still, that volatility should quickly settle as traders chase a stronger US Dollar, US Dollar-based Dividends, and a potential “melt-up” of the US Equity market (particularly the Dow Jones, S&P500, and possibly the Russell 2000).Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!Unless the US Fed takes very aggressive action in raising rates too quickly, I believe, at least initially, the US equity markets will continue to benefit from perceived strengths compared to many global equities/indexes.This means there will be many opportunities for traders and investors in 2022 and 2023 – we have to be patient in waiting for the chance to profit from these big trends. Jumping ahead of this volatility could be dangerous if you are on the wrong side of the price trend. Instead, wait for the right opportunities while you protect your capital from extreme risks. Let the markets tell you when opportunities are perfect – don't try to force a trade to happen.On December 28, 2021, I published this research article showing how my Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Predictive Modeling system expects price to trend in 2022 and early 2023: Predictive Modeling Suggests 710 Rally In SPY And QQQ Before April 2022. I strongly suggest taking a look at the recent downside price trends in relation to the lower range of the ADL Predictive Modeling expectations. If my ADL Predictive Modeling system is accurate, we may see a relatively strong recovery in the US stock market throughout the rest of 2022 and beyond.Strategies To Help You Protect And Grow Your WealthLearn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

  Despite death wishes from the doubters, the dollar took to the skies on the Fed’s hawkish wings. Gold and silver can wave from the ground for now. While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell threw fuel on the fire on Jan. 26, it’s no surprise that the USD Index has rallied to new highs. For example, while dollar bears feasted on false narratives in 2021, I was a lonely bull forecasting higher index values. Likewise, after more doubts emerged in 2022, the death of the dollar narrative resurfaced once again. However, with the charts signaling a bullish outcome for some time, my initial target of 94.5 was surpassed and my next target of 98 is near. As such, it’s crucial to avoid speculation and wait for confirmation of breakdowns and breakouts. In its absence, the price action often pulls you in the wrong direction. Remember the supposedly bearish move below 95 when the USD Index moved even below its rising support line? It’s been just 2 weeks since that development. On Jan. 14, I wrote the following: In conclusion, 2022 looks a lot like 2021: dollar bears are out in full force and the ‘death of the dollar’ narrative has resurfaced once again. However, with the greenback’s 2021 ascent catching many investors by surprise, another re-enactment will likely materialize in 2022. Moreover, since gold, silver, and mining stocks often move inversely to the U.S. dollar, their 2022 performances may surprise for all of the wrong reasons. As such, while the dollar’s despondence is bullish for the precious metals, a reversal of fortunes will likely occur over the medium term. Given yesterday’s reversal in the USD Index, it’s likely also from the short-term point of view – we could see the reversal and the return of the USD’s rally and PMs’ decline any day or hour now. Fortunately, if you’ve been following my analyses, the recent price moves didn’t catch you by surprise. What’s next? While the USD Index still needs to confirm the recent breakout and some consolidation may ensue, the bullish medium-term thesis remains intact. More importantly, though, the USD Index’s gain has resulted in gold, silver, and mining stocks’ pain. For example, the dollar’s surge helped push gold below its short-and-medium-term rising support lines (the upward sloping red lines on the bottom half of the above chart). However, since the USD Index hit a new high and gold didn’t hit a new low, is the development bullish for the yellow metal? To answer, I wrote on Jan. 27: The U.S. currency just moved above its previous 2022 and 2021 highs, while gold is not at its 2021 lows. Yet. I wouldn’t view gold’s performance as true strength against the USD Index at this time just yet. Why? Because of the huge consolidation that gold has been trading in. The strength that I want to see in gold is its ability not to fall or soar back up despite everything thrown against it, not because it’s stuck in a trading range. In analogy, you’ve probably seen someone, who’s able to hold their ground, and not give up despite the world throwing every harm and obstacle at them. They show their character. They show their strength. Inaction could represent greater wisdom and/or love and focus on one’s goal that was associated with the lack of action. You probably know someone like that. You might be someone like that. The above “inaction” is very different from “inaction” resulting from someone not knowing what to do, not having enough energy, or willpower. Since markets are ultimately created by people (or algorithms that were… ultimately still created by people) is it any surprise that markets tend to work in the same way? One inaction doesn’t equal another inaction, and – as always – context matters. However, wasn’t gold strong against the USD Index’s strength in 2021? It was, but it was very weak compared to the ridiculous amounts of money that were printed in 2020 and 2021 and given the global pandemic. These are the circumstances, where gold “should be” soaring well above its 2011 highs, not invalidating the breakout above it. The latter, not the former, happened. Besides, the “strength” was present practically only in gold. Silver and miners remain well below their 2011 highs – they are not even close to them and didn’t move close to them at any point in 2020 or 2021. The Eye in the Sky Doesn’t Lie Moreover, if we zoom out and focus our attention on the USD Index’s weekly chart, the price action has unfolded exactly as I expected. For example, while overbought conditions resulted in a short-term breather, the USD Index consolidated for a few weeks. However, history shows that the greenback eventually catches its second wind. To explain, I previously wrote: I marked additional situations on the chart below with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or those of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie, and with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. While very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98-101 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon) Mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone. The EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the USD Index’s ascent has surprised investors. However, if you’ve been following my analysis, you know that I’ve been expecting these moves for over a year. Moreover, with the rally poised to persist, gold, silver, and mining stocks may struggle before they reach lasting bottoms. However, with long-term buying opportunities likely to materialize later in 2022, the precious metals should soar to new heights in the coming years. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 upswing attempt rejected, again – and credit markets didn‘t pause, with the dollar rush being truly ominous. Sign of both the Fed being taken seriously, and of being afraid (positioned for) the adverse tightening consequences. Bonds are bleeding, the yield curve flattening, and VIX having trouble declining. As stated yesterday: (...) It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper would though happen, and the following questions are as to hikes‘ number and frequency. I‘m not looking the current perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way, and I question Mar 50bp rate hike fears. Not that it would even make a dent in inflation. Not even the shock and awe 50bp hike in Mar would make a dent as crude oil prices virtually guarantee inflation persistence beyond 2022. The red hot Treasury and dollar markets are major headwinds as the S&P 500 is cooling off (in a very volatile way) for a major move. As we keep chopping between 4,330s and 4,270s, the bulls haven‘t been yet overpowered. I keep looking to bonds and USD for direction across all markets. I also wrote yesterday: (...) All that‘s needed, is for bonds to turn up, acknowledging a too hawkish interpretation of yesterday‘s FOMC – key factor that sent metals down and dollar up. While rates would continue rising, as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see them retreat again – now with 1.85% in the 10-year Treasury, we would overshoot very well above 2% only to close the year in its (2%) vicinity. That just illustrates how much tolerance for rate hikes both the real economy and the markets have, and the degree to which the Fed can accomplish its overly ambitious yet behind the curve plans. Still time to be betting on commodities and precious metals in the coming stagflation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Another setback with reversal of prior gains - S&P 500 is chopping in preparation for the upcoming move. Concerningly, the bears are overpowering the bulls on a daily basis increasingly more while Bollinger Bands cool down to accommodate the next move. Direction will be decided in bonds. Credit Markets HYG keeps collapsing but the volume is drying up, which means we could see a reprieve – happening though at lower levels than earlier this week. Quality debt instruments are pausing already, indicatively. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver declined as yields moved sharply up and so did the dollar – but inflation or inflation expectations didn‘t really budge, and TLT looks ready to pause. The metals keep chopping sideways in the early tightening phase, which is actually quite a feat. Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and its upswing looks ready to go on unimpeded, and that has implications for inflation ahead. Persistent breed, let me tell you. Copper Copper is in danger of losing some breath – the GDP growth downgrades aren‘t helping. The red metal though remains range bound, patiently waiting to break out. Will take time. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are pointing lower again, losing altitude – not yet a buying proposition. Summary S&P 500 bulls wasted another opportunity to come back – the FOMC consequences keep biting as fears of a hawkish Fed are growing. Tech still can‘t get its act together, and neither can bonds – these are the decisive factors for equities. As liquidity is getting scarce while the Fed hadn‘t really moved yet, risk-on assets are under pressure thanks to frontrunning the Fed. The room for a surprising rebound in stocks is however still there, given how well the 4,270s are holding in spite of the HYG plunge. And given the recent quality debt instruments pause, it looks approaching. Look for a dollar decline next to confirm the upcoming risk-on upswing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Apple stock surges after a strong earnings release. AAPL popped 2% on the numbers, and this move has continued. Apple could turn the entire market sentiment around. Apple (AAPL) dropped earnings after the close last night, and they amounted to a blow out. There had been some talk of record numbers and iPhone sales prior to the release, but this set of earnings surprised even the most bullish previews. The stock immediately popped 2% and stabilized but has since added another 2% to its after-market gains and is currently at $165.79 in Friday's premarket. This marks a 4% gain on the regular session close from Thursday. This big question is whether Apple (AAPL) can turn the entire market sentiment around. It is after all the biggest company in the world with the highest weighting in the main S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices. It certainly has the potential to call a bottom to this miserable start to 2022. Apple Stock News Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.10 versus the average estimate of $1.88. Revenue also beat estimates, hitting $123.9 billion versus $118.28 billion. The closely watched iPhone revenue number hit $71.63 billion and represents just under 58% of Apple's total revenue. Gross margins increased from 39.8% to 43.8% yearly. On the conference call post earnings, CEO Tim Cook said he sees this margin remaining strong in Q2 2022 to 43% at the midpoint of projections. However, the March quarter is traditionally the slowest of the year earnings wise due to the post-holiday season lull in sales activity. CFO Luca Maestri addressed the key question of supply chain issues, saying chip issues are only a problem for mostly older models and that problems have eased. Tim Cook said the supply chain is doing well. Overall, this was exactly what the market needed: blowout earnings with a significant beat. The earnings call offered strong revenue and most importantly positive commentary around the supply chain and semiconductor chip issues. We will likely see multiple analyst upgrades as the day progresses. Apple Stock Forecast This now becomes a key barometer for the broad market. AAPL should stabilize and appreciate further from here based on these results. If this current rally fails and fades, then truly we are entering a correction phase. For now, $157 remains key support. This is the high from September and also the 100-day moving average. Hold here and we can then target $167.63 and then onto record highs. Also note how the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold by traditional metrics at 30 (we prefer to use 20) and how the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also at lows with the histogram at the widest we have seen for some time. All of these are indicators of oversold conditions. Everything looks set up for a turnaround. The only caveat is the overall market sentiment. Apple (AAPL) chart, daily

Decentraland price looks to be set to close the week in profit. MANA price action went against the tide, with global markets nervous and still jitters after the Fed tightening announcement. A weekly close above the S1 and Fibonacci low should trigger a return to the upside. Decentraland (MANA) price has been on the front foot in a challenging market environment. MANA bulls look ready to eke out 28% of gains for this week after the price lifted from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and is now set to pop and stay above the monthly S1 support level. Expect more investors to join the rally once the MANA price can consolidate above the S1 and set $2.57 later today as the price target. MANA price set for 15% price hike Decentraland was forming a falling knife last week but got picked up after the bounce off the $1.67 handle and went against the tide this week as the 200-day SMA around $2.0 offered a window of opportunity for more bulls to extend the recovery. In a slow grind, price action again space and lifted MANA 28% until Decentraland price is hovering. As bulls are now trying to consolidate above the monthly S1 at $2.24, and with that as well reentered the Fibonacci retracement to all-time highs. MANA price is yet still far away from any all-time highs. Global markets still look very much on edge, but that does not mean that Decentraland price action will disappoint to the upside. Expect more investors to come in during the US session if MANA price can stay above $2.24. That trigger and inflow will see price action propel further upwards to tick $2.57, the low from December 04 and set as an easy profit target to be reached. MANA/USD daily chart The monthly S1 can be proven slippery when wet, and price action could easily slide back below, triggering bulls to take their money and run. MANA price would be plie back against the 200-day SMA, break it and fulfill the swing trade towards $1.67. Would the swing lower trigger an even more aggressive selloff from bulls and investors, expect a short overshoot towards $1.28, just above the monthly S2.

Today we have seen the first slowdown in annual inflation in seven months, but the data is better than expected. In January, consumer prices rose 0.4%, up 4.9% on the same month a year earlier. Analysts, on average, were expecting prices to fall by 0.2% and slow inflation to 4.3% YoY. The harmonized price index (adjusted for tax changes) shows an even more significant gap between expectations and reality. The index rose by 0.9% (a fall of 0.4% was expected). The figures clearly show that inflation has penetrated deeper into the economy and is increasingly taking on the features of permanent price increases. Sustained inflation raises the expectation that the ECB will also tighten its rhetoric and proceed with policy tightening more quickly than previously promised. The markets have priced in one rate hike of 0.25% by December. But with the Fed as an example, we can see how quickly things can change. These changes should be positive for the euro.

S&P 500 left the 4,270s - 4,330s range with an upside breakout – after bonds finally caught some bid. While in risk-on posture, divergencies to stocks abound – any stock market advance would leave S&P 500 in a more precarious position than when the break above 4,800 ATHs fizzled out. But a stock market advance we would have, targeting 4,500 followed by possibly 4,600. The sizable open long profits can keep growing. Only the market internals would be poor, so better don‘t look at the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, and similar metrics. Enough to say that Friday‘s advance was sparked by the Apple news. When it‘s only the generals that are advancing while much of the rest remains in shambles, Houston has a problem – we aren‘t there yet. Fed‘s Kashkari also helped mightily on Friday – that implicit rates backpedalling was more than helpful. Pity that precious metals haven‘t noticed (I would say yet) – but remember the big picture and don‘t despair, we‘re just going sideways before the inevitable breakout higher. Back to rates and the Fed, there is a key difference between the tightening of 2018 and now – the economy was quite robust with blood freely flowing, crucially without raging inflation. With the Fed sorely behind the curve by at least a year, it‘ll have to move faster and have lower sensibility to market selloffs caused. Stiff headwinds ahead as liquidity gets tighter. Couple that with resilient oil – more profits taken off the table Friday at $88.30 – and you‘ve got a pretty resilient inflation. Not that inflation expectations would be shaking in their boots, not that commodities would be cratering. It‘s only copper (influencing silver) that has to figure out just how overdone its Friday‘s move had been. Not that other base metals would be that pessimistic. Similarly to precious metals and the early tightening phase, commodities would be under temporary pressure as well, but outperforming as we officially enter stagflation. Not too tough to imagine given the GDP growth downgrades. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Great finish to the week, but S&P 500 bulls have quite a job ahead – it continues being choppy out there. I‘m still looking at bonds with tech for direction. Credit Markets HYG finally turned around, and Friday was a risk-on day. The question remains how far can the retracement (yes, it‘s retracement only) reach – can the pre-FOMC highs be approached? Could be, could be. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver retreated, but no chart damage was done – things are still going sideways as the countdown is on for the Fed to either tighten too much and send markets crashing, or reverse course (again). Crude Oil Crude oil isn‘t broken by the Fed, and why should it be given that it can‘t be printed. Some backing and filling is ahead before the uptrend reasserts itself. Copper Copper is the only red flag, and seeing it rebound would call off the amber light. This is the greatest non-confirmation of the commodities direction in quite a while, and that‘s why I‘m taking it with more than a pinch of salt. Bitcoin and Ethereum Crypto bulls are putting up a little fight as the narrow range trading continues – I‘m not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Summary S&P 500 bulls finally moved in an otherwise volatile and choppy week. For the days ahead, volatility is likely to calm down somewhat, but chop is likely to be with us still – only that I expect it to be of the bullish flavor. 10-year Treasury yield has calmed down, and that would be constructive for stocks – watch next for the 2-year to take notice likewise. The 2-year Treasury is quite sensitive to the anticipated Fed moves, and illustrates well the rate hike fears – coupled with the compressed 10-year to 2-year ratio, we‘re looking at rising expectation of the Fed policy mistake (in tightening too much, too fast). For now though, stocks can recover somewhat, and most of the commodities can keep on appreciating. Precious metals keep being in the waiting game, very resilient, and will turn out one of the great bullish surprises of 2022. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Oil has added more than 14% this month, and Brent spot contracts are trading near $90 a barrel. Steady strengthening has been underway for the past two months after it became clear that the widespread Omicron strain is not leading to new travel restrictions. The November correction in oil served the bulls well by unloading the market from an overhang of bullish positions. We now see a resistance breakout, which has reversed oil twice before, in 2018 and 2021. On the fundamental analysis side, we also see a short-term bullish picture for oil. The Americans continue to ramp up drilling activity, bringing the number of working rigs to 610 last week. However, this is still not enough to significantly accelerate production. Production has stabilised around 11.7 mln BPD for the last nine weeks. These are significant volumes by historical standards: America only produced more from early 2019 to May 2020. But these volumes are not enough to stem the decline in stocks, which have returned to the region of the 2019 lows despite the sell-off and the strategic reserve. On the other hand, there are no signs yet that OPEC+ will accelerate its 400k BPD production increase plan at the beginning of the month. Moreover, there is a chronic over-quota, meaning countries are producing less than quotas allow. Some attribute this to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries pushing prices as high as possible. But several observers also point out that the cartel and many other countries cannot produce more because they have severely underinvested in past years. This argument is doubly true for Russia, the US, and several countries where production requires sustained investment. This sets the stage for oil to move into the $85-105 area in the first half of the year. However, oil bulls should remain cautious because of tightening monetary conditions in the US and other DM countries. In addition, production is rising, albeit slowly, and the demand ceiling is just around the corner.

Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution The Plan: It is an election year when Democrats will project political pressure upon the Federal Reserve to not risk through aggressive policy changes a stock market collapse to keep their votes. As a result, more money printing expands inflation, which supports the interest for bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Should we see in opposition for whatever reason a rapid stock market decline, the investor would unlikely be interested in owning stock or bonds. While initially, bitcoin prices would likely fall alongside the markets, money will likely flow into bitcoin shortly afterward. The execution: With bitcoins prices suppressed from their recent decline (down 52% from its last all-time high at around US$69,000), we have another edge for minimizing exposure risk. BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, high likely turning points: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of January 31st, 2022. The chart above depicts five supply zones we have our eye on. We will try identifying low-risk entry points on smaller time frames at or near these points and reduce risk further with our quad exit strategy. We already had entries near zone 1 and 2 and posted those live in our free Telegram channel. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, bitcoin, the plan, and its execution, reload trading: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 1st, 2022. Once the more significant time frame turning point is identified (white arrow), we will add what we call ‘reload’ trades (see chart above) on the smaller weekly time frame. We do so by identifying low-risk entries in congestion zones (yellow boxes) on the way up. We aim to arrive near the elections in November with a sizable position that is due to our exit strategy being risk-free. Playing with the market’s money will allow for positive execution psychology and ease us to observe our position through an expected volatility period, with further profit-taking into possible volatile upswings that are only temporary in nature. BTC in US-Dollar, Quarterly Chart, long-term profit potential: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, quarterly chart as of February 1st, 2022. While this year’s midterm trading on the long side of the bitcoin market could provide for substantial income from the 50% profit-taking of each individual trade and reload based on our quad exit strategy, the real goal is to have a remaining position size that could potentially go to unfathomable heights, since we see in the long term the inflation problem not going away but rather culminating in a bitcoin rise that could be substantially much larger in percentage than alternative inflation hedges like real estate, gold, silver and alike. Not to say that we find it also essential to hold these asset classes for wealth preservation. The quarterly chart above illustrates the potential of such a position. We illustrated both in time (six years) and price (US$ 134,000) our most conservative model in this chart. Bitcoin, the plan, and its execution: We see no scenario where inflation is just going away. The above narrative shows that a short-term fueling of inflation is likely. Furthermore, a high-risk scenario is fueling inflation even more. Should markets decline rapidly, it can be expected that money printing and buying up the market is the most predominant solution applied. Consequently, the average investor would wake up relieved that prices wouldn’t decline any further but liquidating their holdings in a further inflated fiat currency will have massively decreased purchasing power. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 1st, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Tesla stock tumbles after beating earnings estimates TSLA shares hit by concerns over supply chain issues. Apple and big tech could turn the market next week. Tesla (TSLA) staged a modest recovery on Friday, but the real damage was done on Thursday when the stock shed nearly 12%. Friday's move was not even that impressive given Tesla's high beta, a fact that would usually see it bounce significantly more than the major indices. As we know well by now high, growth is not the sector of choice this year, and Tesla does straddle this space. Investors are moving back to more traditional sectors and metrics for their portfolios, and the era of high flying growth is coming to an end, for now at least. We view this as a positive event, stretching too far would have resulted in an ugly snapback or bubble popping most likely. This stabilisation should continue for the year with one or two speculative dead cat bounces along the way. We may just get one of those next week as the remainder of big tech gets a chance to continue on from where Apple led. Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are all reporting earnings this week. Positive earnings should steady sentiment, and this would then also likely spread to some high growth names. However, in the longer term, we expect balance sheets rather than growth to outperform this year. Tesla Stock News Tesla is not just pure growth, although it is managing to do that rather impressively if the latest results are anything to go by. It will stay with the pace, while other start-up EV manufacturers are more likely to fade away. Tesla created the EV space and remains the brand leader. This will likely not change since it has positioned itself as a premium brand. It will likely face more competition, but we do not see it losing quite as much market share as that forecast by Bank of America. Forecasting a drop from 69% to 19% market share in the space of two years does seem a bit headline-grabbing. The problem for Tesla is its valuation got too ahead of itself, so it is likely to underperform in this new environment despite continued strong earnings and revenue growth. Tesla Stock Forecast The bearish trend is now well-established. Thursday's losses only followed on from what we identified back in early January. The spike higher failed, and then it created a lower low, which confirmed the mid-December low. Even Friday's price action set a lower low than Thursday before the bounce set in. Resistance at $987 is last week's high and is first up. A close above that is significant and a new bar above that will signify a small short-term uptrend. Otherwise, the medium-term downtrend remains in control with support at the 200-day moving average, which sits at $814 currently. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

Solana price keeps hovering above the monthly S2 support. SOL price sees RSI slowly climbing out of the oversold area on the RSI. Expect a pickup in bullish sentiment once Nasdaq confirms risk-on will be the central theme for this week. Solana (SOL) price saw its bullish reversal stop short on Sunday and is now nearing the monthly S2 support level again at $89.28. Although ASIA PAC equity and European indices are firmly in the green, the sentiment has not spilled over to US futures and cryptocurrencies yet. Expect a bounce off the monthly S2 support level and look for a first test at $100 to the upside before continuation this week towards $130.70. Solana bulls are pushing the RSI away from the oversold area Solana price action saw bulls in good shape on Friday and Saturday, erasing a part of the games and trying to reach $100 to the upside. Instead, the sharp uptick stopped on Sunday as cryptocurrencies again looked heavy, with trading starting on Monday. Strangely enough, the most critical Asian indices and European indices are firmly in the green, where US futures are somewhat mixed and relatively flat during the European trading session. Expect for SOL price to stay hovering around this S2 level as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still at or in an oversold area, limiting any potential downside for bears. This should help bulls to use this window of opportunity to go long and make a bounce off the S2 level at $89.28. Once US futures kick into gear and take over the sentiment from Europe, expect some bullish uptick again, targeting $100 intraday and $130.70 for this week. SOL/USD daily chart On the downside, a break below the S2 support level would see a dip towards the low from last week, around $82. If European indices give up their gains and turn red, together with US futures firmly in the red, expect to see another wave of selling, with a possible nosedive threat towards $58.84. With that move, the RSI would overshoot firmly into being oversold.

Palantir stock rises by nearly 8% on Monday. PLTR shares have suffered from the hawkish Fed and risk aversion. Palantir could see a rally as risk assets see inflows. Palantir (PLTR) is back on the minds of traders as retail interest stocks finally catch a bid in this new environment. Meme and retail interest stocks have been hammered so far in 2022. Most, if not all, of these stocks are high growth, unprofitable and highly speculative names, and the momentum has dried up in this sector in 2022. The Fed has pivoted to a strongly hawkish stance, and markets are pricing in five rate hikes this year. Palantir has fallen 25% so far this year and nearly 50%over the last three months. Palantir Stock News The meme and retail space staged a recovery yesterday as some end-of-month position covering saw some positive flows. Added to this was a more risk-on tone following from Apple's strong earnings late last week and in anticipation of more big tech earnings this week. AMC then whetted risk appetites further this morning when it released revenue numbers that were ahead of analysts' forecasts. AMC shares popped 14% and dragged many retail and meme stocks along with them. All this should contribute to more gains for Palantir on Tuesday as momentum is key for these names. Adding to this and more stock-specific is that Palantir and Satellogic (SATL) announced a strategic partnership. "Combining the forces of Palantir’s Edge AI technology with Satellogic’s frequent high-resolution imagery will give users actionable insight faster than ever, accelerating their operations from space to mud," said Shyam Sankar, COO of Palantir. "The holistic capabilities of Palantir's Foundry will be instrumental in helping Satellogic realize our mission to improve life on Earth through geospatial data,” said Matthew Tirman, President of Satellogic North America. “ Satellogic will provide Palantir’s US government customers with ready access to Satellogic’s high-resolution satellite imagery to drive analytical insights across a range of mission-oriented use cases.” Satellogic only recently went public via a SPAC deal, listing on the NASDAQ on January 26. We do not have details of the financial side of the partnership or the impact on Palantir's revenue streams. The partnership is for five years, and the companies already have an existing collaboration. All this makes it less significant in our view as it is merely an add-on to an existing relationship between the two companies. Investors are pushing the news aggressively on social media. Palantir Stock Forecast We do note the oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on January 27 with it dipping below 20. Oversold readings are usually below 30 for the RSI, but 20 eliminates false signals. This then worked well, and today's move is likely to see more gains. Breaking $13.61 gets PLTR shares above the 9-day moving average, and the next resistance is at $15 from both the yearly VWAP and 21-day moving average. The VWAP is the volume-weighted average price. Palantir (PLTR) chart, daily

S&P 500 pushed sharply higher, squeezing not only tech bears even if yields didn‘t move much – bonds actually ran into headwinds before the closing bell. With my 4,500 target reached, the door has opened to consolidation of prior steep gains, and that would be accompanied by lower volatility days till before the positioning for Friday‘s non-farm payrolls is complete as talked on Sunday. So, we have an S&P 500 rally boosting our open profits while the credit market‘s risk-on posture is getting challenged, and divergencies to stocks abound – as I wrote yesterday: (…) any stock market advance would leave S&P 500 in a more precarious position than when the break above 4,800 ATHs fizzled out. But a stock market advance we would have, targeting 4,500 followed by possibly 4,600. We‘re getting there, the bulls haven‘t yet run out of steam, but it‘s time to move closer to the exit door while still dancing. But the key focus remains the Fed dynamic: (…) Fed‘s Kashkari ... helped mightily on Friday – that implicit rates backpedalling was more than helpful. Pity that precious metals haven‘t noticed (I would say yet) – but remember the big picture and don‘t despair, we‘re just going sideways before the inevitable breakout higher. Back to rates and the Fed, there is a key difference between the tightening of 2018 and now – the economy was quite robust with blood freely flowing, crucially without raging inflation. With the Fed sorely behind the curve by at least a year, it‘ll have to move faster and have lower sensibility to market selloffs caused. Stiff headwinds ahead as liquidity gets tighter. Suffice to say that precious metals did notice yesterday, and copper looks ready to work off its prior odd downswing. Remember that commodities keep rising (hello the much lauded agrifoods) while oil enteredd temporary sideways consolidation. Look for other base metals to help the red one higher – the outlook isn‘t pessimistic in the least as the recognition we have entered stagflation, would grow while the still compressing yield curve highlights growing conviction of Fed policy mistake. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls proved their upper hand yesterday, and the question is where would the upswing stall – or at least pause. Ahead soon, still this week. Credit Markets HYG caught a bid yesterday too, but the sellers have awakened – it appears the risk-on trades would be tested soon again. Bonds are certainly less optimistic than stocks at this point, but the S&P 500 rickety ride can still continue, and diverge from bonds. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver retreat was indeed shallow, did you back up the truck? The chart hasn‘t flipped bearish, and I stand by the earlier call that PMs would be one of the great bullish surprises of 2022. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls rejected more downside, but I‘m not looking for that to last – however shallow the upcoming pullback, it would present a buying opportunity, and more profits on top of those taken recently. Copper Expect copper‘s recent red flag to be dealt with decisively, and for higher prices to prevail. Other base metals have likewise room to join in as $4.60 would be taken on once again. At the same time, the silver to copper ratio would move in the white metal‘s favor after having based since the Aug 2020 PMs top called. Bitcoin and Ethereum As stated yesterday, crypto bulls are putting up a little fight as the narrow range trading continues – I‘m not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Time for a downside reversal is approaching. Summary S&P 500 bulls made a great run yesterday, and short covering was to a good deal responsible. Given the credit market action, I‘m looking for the pace of gains to definitely decelerate, and for the 500-strong index to consolidate briefly. VIX is likely to keep calming down before rising again on Friday. Should credit markets agree, the upcoming chop would be of the bullish flavor, especially if oil prices keep trading guardedly. And that looks to be the case, and the rotation into tech can go on – $NYFANG doing well is one of the themes for the environment of slowing GDP growth rates, alongside precious metals and commodities embracing inflation with both arms. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  Gold fought valiantly, gold fought nobly, gold fought honorably. Despite all this sacrifice, it lost the battle. How will it handle the next clashes? Have you ever felt trapped in the tyranny of the status quo? Have you ever felt constrained by some invisible yet powerful forces trying to thwart the fullest realization of your potential? I guess this is what gold would feel like right now – if metals could feel anything, of course. Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, January looked to be quite good for the yellow metal. Its price surpassed the key level of $1,800 at the end of 2021, rallying from $1,793 to $1,847 on January 25, 2022. Then the evil FOMC published its hawkish statement on monetary policy. In its initial response, gold slid. That’s true, but it bravely defended its positions above $1,800 during both Wednesday and Thursday. There was still hope. However, on Friday, the metal capitulated and plunged to $1,788. Here we are again – below the level of $1,800 that gold hasn’t been able to exceed for more than several days since mid-2021, as the chart below shows. Am I disappointed? A bit. Naughty goldie! Am I surprised? Not at all. Although I cheered the recent rally, I was unconvinced about its sustainability in the current macroeconomic context, i.e., economic recovery with tightening of monetary policy (the surprisingly positive report on GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 didn’t probably help gold), rising interest rates, and possibly a not-distant peak in inflation. In the previous edition of the Fundamental Gold Report, I described the Fed’s actions as “a big hawkish wave that could sink the gold bulls” and pointed out that “gold started its decline before the statement was published, which may indicate more structural weakness.” I added that it was also disturbing that “gold was hit even though the FOMC statement came largely as expected.” Last but not least, I concluded my report with a warning that “the upcoming weeks may be challenging for gold, which would have to deal with rising bond yields.” My warning came true very quickly. Of course, we cannot exclude a relatively swift rebound. After all, gold can be quite volatile in the short-term, and this year could be particularly turbulent for the yellow metal. However, I’m afraid that the balance of risks for gold is the downside. Next month (oh boy, it’s February already!), we will see the end of quantitative easing and the first hike in the federal funds rate, followed soon by the beginning of quantitative tightening and further rate hikes. Using its secret magic, the Fed has convinced the markets that it has become a congregation of hawks, or even a cult of the Great Hawk. According to the CME Fed Tool, future traders have started to price in five 25-basis-point raises this year, while some investors believe that the Fed will lift interest rates by 50 basis points in March. All these clearly hawkish expectations led to the rise in bond yields (see the chart below), creating downward pressure on gold.   Implications for Gold What does the recent plunge in gold prices imply for investors? Well, in a sense, nothing, as short-term price movements shouldn’t affect long-term investments. Trading and investing should be kept separate. However, gold’s return below $1,800 can disappoint even the biggest optimists. The yellow metal failed again. Not the first and not the last time, though. In my view, gold may struggle by March, as all these hawkish expectations will exert downward pressure on the yellow metal. In 2015, the first hike in the tightening cycle coincided with the bottom of the gold market. It may be similar this time, as the actual hike could ease some of the worst expectations and also push markets to think beyond their tightening horizon. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  While last week's geopolitical tensions have eased a bit, the OPEC+ members’ meeting knocks at the door. How will it affect crude inventories? Crude oil prices paused this morning in the European trading session, the day after a new technical increase linked to the expiration of futures contracts. OPEC+ members, including Russia, are due to hold a meeting tomorrow in which speculative talks suggest that OPEC+ could announce a quicker increase in supply. On the other hand, US crude inventories should be scrutinized this week, with the first figure to be released later today by the American Petroleum Institute (API) at 2130 GMT / 1530 Chicago Time. Therefore, we could see a new rise in crude stockpiles of 2 million barrels. As a result, the oil market could be set to start a pullback down to previous support – $ 85.80 could represent a level that would attract more bulls, eventually. Regarding OPEC+ output, Saudi Arabia could decide to add barrels on top of its quota, as the kingdom is one of the only members of the cartel able to ramp up production, if necessary. On the US dollar side, the recent rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil. The overall inverted/negative correlation between the USD and black gold could catch up now as we have a greenback sliding after less hawkish comments from the Fed than expected and a barrel located in overbought territory. On the geopolitical scene, the slight ease of tensions from the past week – or, at least, the diminution of anxiety inducing news in the mainstream media headlines – is characterized by decreasing volatility. The latter is thus marked by a volatility index (VIX) – aka “Fear Index” sliding just below 25 today. WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Brent Crude Oil (BRNJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart) RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) In summary, after such a rally in January 2022 on crude oil prices, we may start to see a weakening of the momentum, which could result in correcting oil prices, if such a scenario of supply and demand dynamics is followed on both sides (input rise / stockpiles accumulation) of the market. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Stocks extended their Friday’s rally yesterday, as the S&P 500 index broke above the 4,500 level. Is this still just an upward correction? The S&P 500 index gained 1.89% on Monday, as it extended its Friday’s gains and broke above the 4,500 level. It retraced more of its recent declines after breaking above the last week’s consolidation along the 4,300-4,400. On last Monday’s low of 4,222.62 the market was 596 points or 12.4% below the Jan. 4 record high of 4,818.62. And yesterday it reached the new local high of 4,516.89. It still looks like an upward correction within a downtrend, however, the market may be also trading within a new uptrend. Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. On Friday it broke above a steep short-term downward trend line. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.3% higher following an overnight consolidation. The nearest important resistance level is now at 4,500-4,550, marked by the previous local lows. The resistance level is also at 4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450, marked by the recent resistance level. The S&P 500 is now back above its early December local low, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Apple Rallies Again Recently, Apple stock fluctuated along the support level of $155.0-157.5 following mid-January downtrend ahead of its quarterly earnings release. The stock reversed the downtrend after breaking above a short-term consolidation and since the earnings release it gained more than 10%. The resistance level is at around $180.0-183.0, marked by the Jan. 4 record high of $182.94. Conclusion The S&P 500 index extended its Friday’s advance yesterday and it broke slightly above the 4,500 level. It still looks like an upward correction following mid-January declines and a rebound within a new medium-term downtrend. Stocks may further extend their uptrend, but there’s a risk of a short-term downward reversal. Today the index is expected to open 0.3% higher, and we may see some uncertainty and a consolidation along the 4,500 level. The market will be waiting for the quarterly earnings releases (AMD, Alphabet today after the session’s close, Meta tomorrow and Amazon on Thursday, among others) and Friday’s monthly jobs data announcement. There is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. We decided to close our profitable long position that was opened on Tuesday, Jan. 25 at the 4,335 level - S&P 500 continuous futures contract. The details of that position (stop-loss and profit target levels) were available for our subscribers in the premium Stock Trading Alerts. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 broke above the 4,500 level again; it still looks like an upward correction. We decided to close our speculative long position from last Tuesday (4,335 level) at the opening of today’s cash market’s trading session – a gain of around 175 index points. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

AUDUSD recoups losses The Australian dollar recovered after the RBA signaled an end to its bond-buying program. The recent sell-off below the daily support and psychological level of 0.7000 further weighed on market sentiment. As the RSI dipped again into the oversold territory, short-term sellers’ profit-taking has driven the price higher. The bears could be looking to fade the current rebound unless the bulls succeed in pushing past 0.7180. 0.7030 is a fresh support and 0.6970 a major floor before June 2020’s lows near 0.6800. USDCAD tests support The Canadian dollar advanced after November’s GDP exceeded expectations. A break above the supply zone at 1.2730 has put the US counterpart back on track. Nonetheless, the rally came to a halt at the daily resistance at 1.2790. The greenback needed a breather as the surge prevented buyers from chasing after volatility. 1.2580 is a key support and an oversold RSI may raise buyers’ interest again. A close above the said resistance could propel the pair to December’s high at 1.2950. NZDUSD sees limited rebound The New Zealand dollar bounced back after the Q4 jobless rate dropped to 3.2%. The pair saw bids over September 2020’s lows around 0.6530. The RSI’s repeated oversold situation has caught bargain hunters’ attention. However, the directional bias remains bearish. The kiwi could find resistance at 0.6700 near the 20-day moving average as trend-followers look to sell into strength. 0.6400 would be the next target if the US dollar makes a comeback across the board.

Bitcoin rose 0.6% on Tuesday, ending the day around $38,700. Ethereum added 3.7%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 are growing: from 0.5% (Binance Coin) to 12.8% (Solana). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, rose 1.5% to $1.86 trillion overnight. Bitcoin hit a week-and-a-half high above $39,000 on Tuesday but then pulled back, offsetting almost all of the gains. The first cryptocurrency was boosted by positive stock indexes and a weakening dollar, but sellers began taking profits on long positions. Over the last eight days, BTC gained almost 20%, recouping more than half of the failure of the second half of January, and buyers decided not to take risks. Ahead is solid psychological resistance at the circular $40,000 level, which supported the first half of January. Technically, Bitcoin has stalled its gains as it approaches the upper boundary of the descending channel. Traders are waiting for new signals about whether the recovery in risk demand will continue or whether the latest rebound will soon be choked off. The result of this struggle will determine whether we will see a break from the downtrend or whether the downtrend will continue again. El Salvador president Nayib Bukele is confident that bitcoin will still show tremendous growth. It's all about the fact that there are 50 million millionaires in the world. If they wanted to buy a coin, there wouldn't be enough for everyone, as the entire bitcoin issue wouldn't exceed 21 million. MicroStrategy added another 660 BTC on the recent market decline. In total, MicroStrategy already has more than 125,000 bitcoins. Russian government officials told Bloomberg that Russians own $214 billion worth of cryptocurrencies. That's about 12% of the total crypto market capitalisation.

PRESS RELESE Warsaw, 02.02.2022 Rise.pl company has leased 1 600 sq m. of space in the CZ Office Park complex located at the intersection of Aleja KraÅ›nicka and NaÅ‚Ä™czowska Streets in Lublin. In June 2022, the provider of flexible workplaces solutions will offer a modern flex office space in the new location. Walter Herz supported the operator in the process of selecting space and negotiating lease terms. Rise.pl will launch instant offices and coworking spaces in CZ Office Park, an A-class office complex in Lublin. Tenants will also be able to use event spaces, 11 conference rooms, a chillout zone with a pool table and game systems, as well as an internal bar and cafeteria, kitchen and reception. The Lublin branch is the 13th location of Rise.pl in Poland, which also operates under the Chillispaces brand. The provider of flexible work solutions offers flex space in seven offices in Cracow, two offices in Lodz and branches located in Wroclaw and Rzeszow. Each office is tailored to the needs of the local businesses and allows for quick expansion. - We chose Lublin because we see great potential in this city for our industry, among others due to the fact that many companies from the IT sector and the outsourcing industry operate there. Moreover, Lublin is a very open business center that encourages companies to invest - says Katarzyna Augustyn, Sales and Marketing Director at Rise.pl. - When choosing the building in which we would open our first office in Lublin, we realized that the first location in the city is very important for the brand and will become a showcase and a point of reference for our further development. Therefore, entering the Lublin market required the selection of an outstanding property to display the quality and style we want to be identified with - says Katarzyna Augustyn. The operator ensures that the offices under the Rise.pl brand are arranged in such a way that they are not only comfortable places to work, with high technical standards and parameters related to safety, but also original spaces, with tasteful interiors, where one can not only work comfortably, but also spend quality time. Rise.pl has extensive development plans. The company intends to gradually expand the network of services so that the flexible offices offered by the company are available in all regions of the country. Lublin is the second location in Eastern Poland, after Rzeszow, for which Rise.pl has had extensive expansion plans for a long time. In the next two years, the company plans on launching flexible offices also in Szczecin, Poznan, Wroclaw, Opole, Katowice, Gliwice and Warsaw. - The concluded lease transaction is an important step for the development of Lublin's office infrastructure. Thanks to this decision, the city will gain the first modern flex office space. Due to the changes in ​​tenant preferences that have taken place on the market over the last two years, instant offices is a sector that will now develop even faster. Adoption of the long-term operating strategies by companies from the industry is confirmed by a 10-year lease period in CZ Office Park in Lublin. We are glad that we can contribute to the growth of the flexible work space market and participate in the transformation process that is currently taking place in the office segment in our country. Thanks to the wide range of office solutions and an increasingly extensive network of services offered by operators of flexible office spaces, tenants can work in a convenient place, time and form all over Poland - says Mateusz Strzelecki, Partner/Head of Regional Markets at Walter Herz. - Rise.pl was looking for a mixed-use space that would combine both a coworking space and independent offices for larger office segments, as well as full conference and event services. The lease of space in CZ Office Park was determined primarily by the unrivaled quality of the offered space, which allows for any configuration of office zones and the vicinity of key transport hubs in the city - informs Mateusz Dembski-Kornaga, Senior Negotiator at Walter Herz. - We are very pleased with Rise.pl’s investment, which is an important element of the city's economic ecosystem. The presence of such a valued brand in Lublin is a clear signal that the city's investment potential remains high, despite the economic turmoil on a national scale. Over the last several months, we have observed an increasing interest in flexible space on the market, which is reflected in the profile of the projects we handle. The space offered by Rise.pl will certainly become an important point on the map of business events in Lublin - says Igor Niewiadomski, coordinator of the Investor Assistance Office of the Lublin City Office, which supported the project. CZ Office Park D is a prestigious A-class office and retail building, located at the intersection of Aleja KraÅ›nicka and NaÅ‚Ä™czowska Streets in Lublin. One of the most modern properties in the city is located near the main transportation routes and academic centers. The total lease area offered by the complex is over 40,4 thousand sq m. The buildings were made in a modern, energy-saving facade technology with the use of the latest air-conditioning and ventilation solutions, guaranteeing comfortable working conditions. CZ Office Park is a place that attracts high-profile events, engaging both tenants and the business and cultural environment of the city. About Walter Herz Walter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects. In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice.

The British pound climbs in the North American session, 0.34%. The market sentiment is mixed as European stocks rise while US futures point towards a lower open. BoE’s 25 basis points rate hike is fully priced in by investors. The GBP/USD remains downward biased, as it failed to breach above the 100-DMA. After ending January with losses of 0.65%, the British pound snaps three-day losses, climbing 0.31%. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.3495, though retreating from the 100-day moving average (DMA) lying at 1.3514. As depicted by European stock indices rising, the market sentiment is mixed, but US equity futures underpins the cash market towards a lower open. Bank of England (BoE) expected to post back-to-back rate hikes In the meantime, money market futures, as shown per the CME Group BOEWATCH tool, 100% of market participants expect an increase of 25 basis points, from 0.25% to 0.50%. Sources cited by CNBC said that “With the Bank Rate reaching 0.5%, we expect the MPC to confirm that all APF (asset purchase facility) reinvestments will cease following the February decision.” Source: CME Group Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed President Harker crossed the wires. He commented that the Fed is not behind the curve, and he expects a rate hike of 25 basis points, four in the year. Concerning the balance sheet reduction, he said that the US central bank could begin the Quantitative Tightening (QT) once the Federal Funds Rates (FFR) hit 1% to 1.25%. The UK economic docket featured the BoE Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals for December. The former came at £0.8B in line with expectations, while the latter rose to 71.051K, higher than the 66K foreseen. Concerning the Market Manufacturing PMI Final for January, increased to 57.3, a tick more elevated than the 56.9 estimated, though trailed the previous month 57.9, showing some slowing, due to the Omicron hit. Across the pond, Manufacturing PMI released by IHS Markit and the ISM for January will be closely watched by GBP/USD traders. That alongside the JOLTs Job Opening for December could shed some light, in anticipation of Thursday’s Jobless Claims and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook The GBP/USD is downward biased. During the European session, the pair retreated at the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 1.3514, but any downward moves might be capped by the 50-DMA lying at 1.3418. To the upside, the GBP/USD will face resistance at 1.3500, followed by the 100-DMA at 1.3514 and an eight-month-old downslope trendline around the 1.3530-40 region. On the flip side, the 50-DMA at 1.3418 is the first support level, followed by the 1.3400 figure, and then the YTD low at 1.3357.

Shiba Inu is seeing lower highs and lower lows compressing price action around $0.00002179. SHIB price is next set for a bullish breakout with several tailwinds present in equities. Expect for SHIB bulls to lift price action back above the 200-day SMA, potentially gaining 24%. Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been stuck in consolidation since January 22 with lower highs and higher lows, punching in both buyers and sellers towards each other with the scene set for a breakout. From the looks of it, that will be a bullish breakout, supported by tailwinds from global equities being on the front foot, with the Nasdaq leading the charge. Expect bulls to break above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the process, and try to reach $0.00002782, the 78.6% Fibonacci level. SHIB bullish breakout holding 28% gains Shiba Inu price may have had its low for the year after hitting $0.00001730 on January 22. Since then, the price has shifted a bit sideways around $0.00002170, with lower highs and higher lows going for consolidation between buyers and sellers. The price in SHIB is so condensed now that a breakout is due. As global markets are on the front foot and risk assets are leading the charge, these tailwinds will spin-off towards cryptocurrencies and set the stage for a bullish breakout towards $0.00002782 as target. SHIB price will, in that process, take out the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.00002562, which does not hold much importance seeing it only got breached on one occasion. Bulls will instead want to look out for $0.00002782, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci level and is an essential indicator that there might be an uptrend in the making. More upside will depend on how the tailwinds behave as the 55-day SMA looks quite heavy around $0.00003000. SHIB/USD daily chart Alternatively, the consolidation could still see a bearish breakout, with bears trapping bulls and running price action back to $0.00001730, or possibly even $0.00001500 back down onto the monthly S1 support level. The reason for the bearish breakout could come from very choppy economic data that could start to point to a global recession with elevated prices and job numbers worsening again. That would trigger a global risk-off wave that could put cryptocurrencies on the backfoot.

S&P 500 recoverd the opening setback at 4,500, and the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery. The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls prevailed, but the question still remains – where would the upswing stall, or at least pause? Still the same answer as yesterday - ahead soon, still this week. Credit Markets HYG reversed higher, and the pace of its coming gains, would be valuable information. Volume tells a story of a modest setback only thus far – greater battles await. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold and silver staircase recovery goes on, showing that further retreat was indeed unlikely. The long consolidation would be resolved in a bullish way, it‘s only a question of time. Great performance this early in the tightening cycle – look for PMs upswings once the rate hikes get going. Crude Oil Crude oil bulls aren‘t wavering as the whole energy sector attests to. Black gold hasn‘t dipped yet below $86, and keeps marching and leading the other commodities $100 is approaching. Copper Copper‘s recent red flag was indeed dealt with decisively, and higher prices prevailed. Still great room to catch up with the rest after the preceding reprieve across other base metals as well. Bitcoin and Ethereum The narrow crypto trading range continues – I‘m still not looking at the Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers to succeed convincingly. Time for a downside reversal is approaching – will happen just when Ethereum loses the bid. Summary S&P 500 bulls again scored gains yesterday, but the sectoral rotation and credit market turn would build a vulnerability going into Friday when value would suffer. Before that, I look for the bears to gradually start appearing again, taking probing bites, but not yet being decisive. VIX has some more room to decline indeed, confirming my earlier thoughts – the volatility return would happen on non-farm payrolls inducing a fresh guessing game as to the Mar rate hikes – 25 or 50bp? Inflation, precious metals and commodities would though still emerge victorious. For now, overall risk management is key – fresh portfolio high was reached yesterday. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

EUR/USD has been rising steadily since the beginning of the week. Annual HICP in the euro area came in much higher than expected in January. Euro could lose its bullish momentum if ECB downplays inflation concerns. The shared currency suffered heavy losses against the dollar last week after FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the Fed’s hawkish stance in the face of high inflation. Following a sharp decline to its lowest level since June 2020, however, EUR/USD managed to stage a decisive rebound during the first half of the week and advanced beyond 1.1300. In addition to renewed dollar weakness, hot inflation data from the euro area helped the pair push higher mid-week. Eurostat reported that annual inflation in the euro area, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), rose to 5.1% in January from 5% in December. This print came in higher than the market expectation of 4.4%. The Core HICP, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, edged lower to 2.3% from 2.6% but surpassed analysts’ estimate of 1.9%. With the first FOMC meeting out of the way, markets now await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy announcements and the euro could find it difficult to extend its rebound if investors are reminded of the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB. ECB on hold The ECB is widely expected to leave its policy settings unchanged following the February policy meeting. In December, the ECB confirmed that it will end the Pandemic Purchase Emergency Programme (PEPP) in March. To soften the policy transition, the ECB announced that it will increase the monthly purchases under the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) to €40 billion in Q2 and €30 billion in Q3 from the current level of €20 billion. The bank intends to maintain the APP purchases at a pace of €20 billion for “as long as necessary” from the last quarter of the year. While speaking at the press conference in December, ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from dismissing the possibility of a rate increase before the end of 2022 and helped the common currency stay resilient against its rivals for the remainder of the year. Commenting on the inflation outlook earlier in the month, several ECB members sounded relatively optimistic and EUR/USD struggled to preserve its bullish momentum. ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir noted that inflation in the eurozone was expected to peak in the “nearest months” before starting to decline. Moreover, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said that they are not yet seeing a big response from wages to inflation. Similarly, Lagarde explained that energy costs were rising due to temporary factors and added that there were no signs of wages being “bid up.” Hawkish scenario: In case Lagarde hints at the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year after the latest inflation report, that could be assessed as a hawkish tilt in the ECB’s policy outlook and provide a boost to the euro. Currently, eurozone money markets are pricing in 30 basis points of rate hikes by the end of the year. Dovish scenario: Lagarde might opt to communicate that inflation is close to peaking in the eurozone and outright reject a rate hike in 2022 while pushing back against market rate-hike bets. Lagarde might also mention that they don’t need to normalize the policy as fast as the Fed by highlighting the differences in economic conditions in the US and the EU. Neutral scenario: Given the fact that the ECB will not release its revised economic projections until March, it would be surprising to see an obvious shift in the ECB’s tone. The accounts of the ECB’s December meeting revealed that policymakers are divided over the inflation outlook and February's policy statement is unlikely to touch on that. The ECB should reiterate that it stands ready to act if inflation becomes persistent in the euro area and that it remains committed to ensuring price stability. EUR/USD Technical Analysis Unless the ECB delivers a hawkish surprise, the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB should continue to favour the dollar over the euro and limit EUR/USD’s upside. At the time of press, the pair was trading near 1.1300, where the 20-day and the 50-day SMAs are located. In case EUR/USD starts using these levels as support, it could target the next static resistance at 1.1375 ahead of 1.1430 (100-day SMA). Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays near 50, suggesting that the pair needs to push higher to convince investors that the latest advance is the beginning of an uptrend rather than a correction. On the flip side, a dovish ECB statement could attract bears and cause the pair to slide toward 1.1200 (psychological level, static level). If this support fails, EUR/USD (https://www.fxstreet.com/currencies/eurusd) could touch a fresh 19-month low at 1.1100.

Bitcoin fell 4.8% on Wednesday, ending the day around $37.0K. Ethereum lost 3.9%, while other top-ten altcoins fell between 4.4% (Cardano and Polkadot) and 7.8% (Solana and Terra). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, overnight fell by 3.4% to $1.8 trillion, while Bitcoin's dominance index fell 0.2% to 39.2%. Bitcoin began a sharp decline on Wednesday as the US session opened, along with US stock index futures. After several hours of falling, stock indices reversed and regained momentum. BTC, meanwhile, broke its previous strong correlation with equity indices and did not show a meaningful rebound. The benchmark cryptocurrency came under pressure from reports of a severe snowstorm coming to Texas. A year ago, a similar weather anomaly disrupted the power supply to a quarter of households and caused loss of life, forcing authorities to impose a state of emergency. The state's association of miners, the Texas Blockchain Council, decided to de-energise mining farms on Wednesday. Texas is home to the main bitcoin network computing capacity in the US. The states themselves are the world's number one miner of the significant digital asset (around 49% of hash rate). Bitcoin again proved that it remains in a downward channel, as the recovery bounce lost strength at the upper end of the range. In theory, a bearish reversal of bitcoin opens up the possibility of updating the January lows with potential targets near 30K.

The Bank of England and the ECB will announce their monetary policy decisions today. They could reinforce the contrast in policy between these central banks and trigger a significant reassessment in the FX market. The ECB is expected to confirm its plans to halt its emergency balance sheet buying programme in March. But it will keep the refinancing rate at zero and continue with 'regular' balance sheet purchases. The ECB is likely to try to save face after yesterday's new inflation record and show more hawkish rhetoric than we are used to. Even so, the eurozone will fall seriously behind the US and UK in its fight against inflation, which can dent the euro. The Bank of England is expected to raise its rate for the second time in this cycle from 0.25% to 0.5%. And we would not be surprised if there are hints in the official comments of a willingness to raise the rate at every subsequent meeting in the coming quarters. The overall situation could resemble the early 2000s when the Bank of England acted more aggressively than its Fed and ECB counterparts to suppress inflation. Tight monetary policy will provide the pound with a chance to get out of extreme lows where it found itself due to Brexit and the pandemic, consolidating this year in the 1.42-1.60 area in GBPUSD and a move into the 0.70-0.80 range for EURGBP.

XAUUSD attempts to bounce The bullions bounce higher as the US dollar softens across the board. Gold is looking to claw back losses from the liquidation in late January. A close above the psychological level of 1800 would be the first step, pushing short-term sellers into covering their bets. The previous support at 1817 coincides with the 30-day moving average, making it an area of interest and important resistance. A bullish breakout may send the metal to the previous high at 1847. On the downside, 1780 is a fresh support. SPX 500 tests resistance The S&P 500 rallies over better-than-expected corporate earnings. A break above 4490 has eased the selling pressure on the index. The former daily support at 4600 is now a key resistance that lies over the 30-day moving average. A close above this congestion area could turn sentiment around, paving the way for a recovery towards 4750. The RSI’s overbought situation may keep the momentum in check temporarily. A pullback may see buying interest in the demand zone between 4410 and 4490. USOIL consolidates gains WTI crude continues to climb as OPEC+ refuses to raise its output limit. The RSI inched into the overbought territory on the daily chart after a new high above 85.00. The bulls could be wary of chasing after the extended rally. 85.00 has turned into a support and a pullback could be an opportunity to accumulate again. Further down, 82.00 on the 30-day moving average is a major floor for the current rally. The milestone at 90.00 would be the next target when momentum makes its return.

Meta (FB) shares lost around 20% post-market, which appears to be an overreaction and shows how wary buyers have become of the former growth leaders, the so-called FAANG stocks. The sharp declines of former crowd favourites could result from a reassessment of the medium-term outlook, for example, due to changes in monetary policy. But they could also be the next domino effect in an impending bear market. Netflix shares lost more than 30% in a few days following a disappointing report late last month and fell 50% from their peak in late November before fumbling for support from bargain hunters. PayPal was not technically in the FAANG big league but was punished just as much, losing around 25% intraday yesterday. After Facebook, Snap (-15%) and Twitter (-7%) also took a tangential hit. In our view, these are not isolated corporate stories but manifestations of broader underline currents. And in the coming days, we will have to determine whether we see a change in the bull market leaders or the first signals of a prolonged bearish trend. In a bear market, the weakest stars are the first to fall, and then the vortex of decline attracts more and more strong participants. The first domino is meme stocks, which had fallen methodically since June when the first signals emerged that the Fed was starting to prepare the markets for a wind-down. Then we saw a peak in many high-tech stocks in November when the Fed started cutting back on buying. By this logic, the downward spiral could pull more strong stocks into a downward spiral by the time interest rates rise, which is expected in March. Looking more broadly at the Nasdaq100 index, there is a rather worrying tech analysis picture. It is once again below its 200-day moving average. The high-tech-filled Meta retreated 2.4% after the report. The S&P500 and DJIA, however, look noticeably stronger on the technical analysis side. But it is worth watching closely how the trading will go this week and whether the buyers will reverse the negative trend of the former Nasdaq favourites. If so, we see a change in the leaders in the form of a rotation in value stocks and other names affected by the pandemic. But fears that the Fed is preparing to take money out of the financial system could force market players to take money off the table by selling blue chips.

S&P 500 is slowly getting under pressure, which is likely to culminate on weak non-farm payrolls tomorrow if Wednesday was any guide. Credit markets are pushing for higher yields as inflation data keep surprising those policy makers who had been already surprised throughout 2021. Commodities though aren‘t freezing as a proverbial deer in the headlights, and once the scare of the Fed‘s short tightening cycle gets done away with, precious metals would join. In the meantime, look for silver to act on copper‘s cue, and for gold to do relatively better in risk-off settings.As for stocks, my gentle selling bias while on the lookout to enter short towards the session‘s end, hasn‘t changed since yesterday, and the new position is already profitable:(…) the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery.The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls prevailed yesterday, but would get under pressure relatively soon. The ominous lower knots say a consolidation is knocking on the door.Credit MarketsHYG repelled selling pressure, but that won‘t last – I‘m looking for lower values across the bond spectrum, coinciding with (temporary) dollar upswing. Risk-off.Gold, Silver and MinersAll this risk-off already in and still to come, is failing to press gold and silver really down – and that tells you the true direction is up, just waiting for a (Fed, inflation, stagflation) catalyst.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t yet wavering, but remain perched pretty high – I‘m looking for sideways to down consolidation as the bears get emboldened by the rising volume. Trying their luck soon.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, still positioned for an upside breakout. Commodities are pointing in the right direction – note the absence of sellers yesterday. How far would the USD upswing compress the red metal today? Not much, not lastingly.Bitcoin and EthereumThe narrow crypto trading range is over, and the bears are on the move – look for them to take some time before they get going towards BTC $35K.SummaryS&P 500 bulls are about to meet the bears again, and higher yields won‘t save value stocks, let alone spawn a rush to tech safety. The pressure in stocks to probe lower values, is building up, and 4,450 may not be enough to stop it. For all the pause in Fed hawkish jawboning, the tightening cycle is merely getting started, and stocks will feel it. Unlike precious metals, which would reverse prior hesitation once the rate raising starts in earnest, and start going up. And commodities? These aren‘t waiting for anyone‘s greenlight. And neither should you in life – what I would like to bring to your attention, is that volatility is rising, and it thus makes sense to pare back the overall portfolio exposure and position sizing while taking only the strongest of opportunities.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

However, these gains attracted some profit-taking at prices around US$1,850. And in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting, gold sold off for three days in a row. This merciless sell-off only ended at US$1,780 wiping out nearly all gains since mid of December. It was some form of the classic “the bull walks up the stairs and the bear jumps out the window” pattern, which is a typical behavior within an uptrend.Hence and exactly for this reason, the deep pullback did not necessarily end the recovery in the gold market. Of course, in the bigger picture, the entire precious metals sector is still stuck in this tenacious correction which has been ongoing since August 2020. In the short-term, however, the pullback has created an oversold setup and once again proved that there is buying interest at prices below US$1,800.US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022. False breakout?US-Dollar index, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.It also seems that the US-Dollar might have hit an important top last Thursday and is now moving lower, which would be very supportive for gold, of course. Everyone is expecting the US-Dollar to go up as the FED is expected to raise interest rates. But the US-Dollar has been discounting this “hike and taper scenario” for several months already. Actually, the US-Dollar index has been rallying +8.8% since May 2021! During the recent FOMC meeting, however, big money might have used the seeming breakout to sell their dollar longs into a favorable high-volume setup. At the same time, stock market sentiment was extremely bearish. Hence, last week likely triggered a top in the US-Dollar and a violent back and forth bottoming pattern for the stock-market.US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022. A series of lower highs!US-Dollar index, monthly chart as of February 3rd, 2022.In the big picture, a top in the US-Dollar would continue the series of lower highs for the dollar. As well, the US-Dollar is moving within a huge triangle since 2001. After a series of three lower highs since December 2016, a test of the lower boundary of the triangle would give gold prices an extreme tailwind in the coming years. Hence, even if it´s hard to come up with any bearish arguments for the dollar at the moment, technically it looks like the dollar could roll over.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart from February 3rd, 2020. Gold’s behavior is changing.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 3rd, 2022.For gold, a weaker US-Dollar would be very helpful. In fact, since the beginning of this week, we perceive an ongoing change in gold’s behavior. We are getting impressed by its intraday strength! Every small pullback around and below US$1,800 was rather quickly bought again. So far, gold has only recovered 38.2% of last week’s nasty sell-off and currently sits pretty much exactly at its 200-day moving average (US$1,805).But the fresh buy signal from the slow stochastic oscillator on the daily chart promises more upside. Hence, we see gold fuming its way higher in the coming weeks. In the next step, gold will have to overcome the 38.2% resistance around US$1,808.50 and then continue its recovery towards US$1,830. In any case, the seasonal component is at least very favorable until the end of February. Therefore, even higher price targets are conceivable too. But gold needs to breakout above the triangle and clear US$1,850. Only then a more sustainable bullish momentum would emerge which could last further into spring.If, on the other hand, gold takes out US$1,780, the recovery since mid of December might be over already and the medium-term correction might likely pick up again.Conclusion: Seasonality favors another wave upOverall, we assume that seasonality favors another wave up in the gold market. Thus, another rally towards at least US$1,830 is realistic. We are short-term bullish, mid-term neutral to skeptic and long-term very bullish for gold.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 3rd, 2022|Tags: EUR/USD, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, Gold neutral, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

AMC stock slumped yesterday as debt raise news was digested. AMC now nearly doubles the raise from $500 million to $950 million. AMC is down over 40% in the last month and 43% for 2022. AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) stock is back on the news wires the last few days, but unfortunately for holders it has not been well received. AMC stock put in three consecutive green days before slumping over 8% on Wednesday. Risk aversion returned, but AMC also announced it was raising more debt to refinance its existing debt. The stock closed at $15.42 for an 8.5% loss on the day. AMC Stock News This morning AMC has nearly doubled its debt offering from $500 million to $950 million. There is also see a bit more detail on the offering. It is to carry a 7.5% interest rate and expires in 2029. The funds will be used to retire existing debt at 10.5% expiring in 2025. The extra $450 million sees AMC also redeeming some notes at 15-17% due in 2026. So AMC is basically remortgaging at a lower rate. This will reduce its interest payments. AMC needs to do this, however, as it carries too much debt. The company has $5.4 billion in long-term debt. AMC has about $1.6 billion in cash, but it spends nearly $100 million per quarter on debt repayments. So remortgaging makes sense, but it is not exactly comforting. CEO Adam Aron has been looking for ways to improve the financial position of the company, and investors baulked at more share issuances. This was the obvious next step but comes a bit later than optimal. Junk bond yields had reached a record low during the summer. The rate of 7.5% is more or less in line with the sector. CCC high yield corporate bonds are currently yielding on average 8.3%. This is up from 6% during the summer. Moody's reacted positively and changed its outlook to positive. AMC Stock Forecast For now, AMC shares are holding the support at $14.54, but risk aversion is growing after FB earnings last night and a suprisngly hawkish Bank of England this morning. Equity markets will suffer with high risk names getting hit the most. Expect $14.54 to break with the next support at $12.22. A break here and the lure of $10 will be obvious. Only beaking $21.04 ends this curent bearish trend. AMC daily chart

MATIC price is hovering above the weekly support level at $1.44, hinting at a move higher. Investors can expect Polygon to rally at least 15% before encountering a tough hurdle. A breakdown of the $1.41 support level will invalidate the bullish thesis. MATIC price recovery after the January flash crash was good but is slowing down. The ongoing consolidation will likely result in an uptrend (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/matic-price-consolidates-before-jumping-to-190-202202022123) that propels Polygon to revisit crucial levels. MATIC price sets the stage MATIC price has been teetering above the $1.44 support level and will likely retest it soon. A bounce off this barrier could be the key to triggering an uptrend. In some cases, the rally could even begin before the initial pullback. Regardless, investors can expect a minimum 15% ascent from MATIC price that tags the supply zone’s lower limit at $1.75. In a highly bullish scenario, Polygon could pierce this hurdle and make a run for the weekly resistance barrier at $1.95. This move would bring total gains from 15% to 27%, from the current level at $1.53. Investors willing to go long could enter a pilot position at the current level and wait for a retest of the $1.44 barrier. If the latter does not arrive, market participants can book profits following a retest of $1.75 and $1.95. MATIC/USDT 4-hour chart While things seem straightforward for MATIC price, a breakdown of the $1.44 support level could dent their optimism. A four-hour candlestick close below $1.41, however, will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis, making an ideal place to enter a stop-loss. A bearish turn could see MATIC price crashing 13% before retesting the $1.23 weekly support level.

Bitcoin fell 0.7% on Thursday, ending the day around $36,800. Ethereum lost 1.8%, while other leading altcoins in the top 10 showed mixed dynamics from a 1.5% decline (Solana and Polkadot) to a 4.3% rise (Terra). Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinGecko, added 0.2% to $1.79 trillion overnight. Bitcoin’s dominance index remained unchanged at 39.2%. Most cryptocurrencies were under pressure from declines in US tech stocks on Thursday. A weak report from Meta (Facebook) was published the day before, and the company’s shares lost more than 26% on the day, with the high-tech Nasdaq down almost 4%. The correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq stock index has recently reached a new high. The first cryptocurrency was also hit by a shutdown of mining farms in Texas, caused by bad weather and a snowstorm. The state leads bitcoin mining in the US, accounting for about half of all BTC hash rates. Bitcoin volatility has fallen to 15-month lows in recent days. With the comparative performance of traditional financial markets, bitcoin has managed to add around 2.9% since the start of the day on Friday, reaching 38,000 and again testing the upper limit of the downward channel. However, the first cryptocurrency will need to break the key $40,000 level to confirm bullish sentiment. Otherwise, the pressure on BTC will continue and may even intensify. The developers of the 14th cryptocurrency, Shiba Inu, have partnered with fast-food restaurant Wellu’s of Naples, Italy. The restaurant will use SHIB as a means of payment and has also fully rebranded its outlet in token style.

EURUSD breaks higher The euro soared as traders bet that persistent inflation could force the ECB to act sooner than later. A break below the daily support at 1.1300 had put the single currency under pressure. However, a swift rebound above this support-turned-resistance indicates strong commitment from the buy-side. The pair is rising towards the January peak at 1.1480. The RSI’s triple top in the overbought area may slow the momentum down as intraday buyers take a break. 1.1270 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. GBPUSD tests resistance The pound popped higher after the BOE raised interest rates to 0.5%. The latest rebound above the resistance at 1.3520 has prompted sellers to cover. Then the rally is accelerating towards 1.3660 which is a major hurdle from the sell-off in late January. A bullish breakout could turn sentiment in the sterling’s favor and send the price to the previous peak at 1.3740. On the downside, 1.3500 is an important support and its breach could invalidate the recovery despite the bullish catalyst. CADJPY awaits breakout The Canadian dollar recovers over growing risk appetite. A fall below the demand zone around 90.60 weighed on sentiment as the loonie struggled to make a higher high. The pair found support at 89.70 in what used to be a former supply area on the daily chart. The current consolidation is a sign of indecision. 91.10 proves to be a tough resistance to crack. A bullish breakout could bring the price to the recent peak at 92.00. Failing that, the pair may suffer from another round of sell-off below 89.10.

  Gold didn’t shine in January. The struggle could continue, although the more distant future looks more optimistic for the yellow metal. That was quick! January has already ended. Welcome to February! I hope that this year has started well for you. For gold, the first month of 2022 wasn’t particularly good. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal lost about $11 of its value, or less than 1%, during January. This is the bad side of the story. The ugly side is that gold wasn’t able to maintain its position above $1,800, even though geopolitical risks intensified, while inflation soared to the highest level in 40 years! The yellow metal surpassed the key level in early January and stayed above this level for most of the time, even rallying above $1,840 in the second half of the month. But gold couldn’t hold out and plunged at the end of January, triggered by a hawkish FOMC meeting. However, there is also a good side. Gold is still hovering around $1,800 despite the upcoming Fed’s tightening cycle and all the hawkish expectations about the US monetary policy in 2022. The Fed signaled the end of tapering of quantitative easing by March, the first hike in the federal funds rate in the same month, and the start of quantitative tightening later this year. Meanwhile, in the last few weeks, the markets went from predicting two interest rate hikes to five. Even more intriguing, and perhaps encouraging as well, is that the real interest rates have increased last month, rising from -1% to -0.6%. Gold is usually negatively correlated with the TIPS yields, but this time it stayed afloat amid rising rates.   Implications for Gold What does gold’s behavior in January imply for its 2022 outlook? Well, I must admit that I expected gold’s performance to be worse. Last month showed that gold simply don’t want to either go down (or up), but it still prefers to go sideways, glued to the $1,800 level. The fact that strengthening expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle and rising real interest rates didn’t plunge gold prices makes me somewhat more optimistic about gold’s future. However, I still see some important threats to gold. First of all, some investors are still underpricing how hawkish the Fed could become to combat inflation. Hence, the day of reckoning could still be ahead of us. You see, just today, the Bank of England hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points, although almost half of the policymakers wanted to raise interest rates by half a percentage point. Second, the market seems to be biased downward, with lower and lower peaks since August 2020. Having said that, investors should remember that what the Fed says it will do and what it ends up doing are often very different. When the Fed says it will be dovish, it will be dovish. But when the Fed says it will be hawkish, it says so. This is because a monetary tightening could be painful for asset valuations and all the debtors, including Uncle Sam. The US stock market already saw significant losses in January. As the chart below shows, the S&P 500 Index lost a few hundred points last month, marking the worst decline since the beginning of the pandemic. Thus, the Fed won’t risk recession in its fight with inflation, especially if it peaks this year, and would try to engineer a soft-landing. Hence, the Fed could reverse its stance relatively soon, especially that it’s terribly late with its tightening. However, as long as the focus is on monetary policy tightening, gold is likely to struggle within its tight range. Some policymakers and economists have argued that the emergence from the COVID-19 pandemic is more like a postwar demobilization and conversion to a civilian industry than a normal business cycle. White House economists have compared the current picture to the rapid increases in 1947, caused by the end of price controls in conjunction with supply chain problems and pent-up demand after the war (“Historical Parallels to Today’s Inflationary Episode”, Council of Economic Advisers, July 6, 2021). The problem with this analogy is that it is only one instance from more than 70 years ago. More recent and more frequent inflation episodes have generally been ended by a recession or a mid-cycle slowdown. Price pressures have an internal momentum of their own and tend to intensify rather than lessen as the business cycle becomes more mature and the margin of spare capacity shrinks in all markets. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Down the chain, US stock market dynamics now determine corporate investor sentiment towards Bitcoin and Ether. From the top-down, this sentiment then spreads down to altcoins. But since late last year, there has been a continuing trend that even bitcoin's calming is enough for altcoins to return to growth and outperform the first cryptocurrency. In the last 24 hours, the entire crypto market has added 3.3%, while Ether has gained 4.7% versus Bitcoin's 2.4%. Ether has strengthened by 15% in the last seven days, returning to this month's highs and trying to climb above the bottom levels at the end of September 2021. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation excluding Bitcoin has been hovering around the $1 trillion mark for over a week and approached the upper end of that range on Friday morning. The reduction in volatility in Bitcoin allows for an optimistic outlook on altcoins. At least in the short term. An essential boundary for Ether will be the $3K mark. A return in the price above this level could further encourage buyers and reject the idea of a crypto-winter following the example of 2018. Solana is showing signs of coming out of the hole it fell into at the end of January. The $90 mark has attracted sufficient buyer demand. However, it will be premature to discuss a sustained recovery to the upside, only a stabilisation after the collapse. A BTCUSD consolidation above $40k and Ethereum above $3k would shift the altcoin recovery to a new speed and restart the process of BTC share contraction in the entire market.

  Beware, the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy could lift real interest rates! For gold, this poses a risk of prices wildly rolling down. The first FOMC meeting in 2022 is behind us. What can we expect from the US central bank this year and how will it affect the price of gold? Well, this year’s episode of Fed Street will be sponsored by the letter “T”, which stands for “tightening”. It will consist of three elements. First, quantitative easing tapering. The asset purchases are going to end by early March. To be clear, during tapering, the Fed is still buying securities, so it remains accommodative, but less and less. Tapering has been very gradual and well-telegraphed to the markets, so it’s probably already priced in gold. Thus, the infamous taper tantrum shouldn’t replay. Second, quantitative tightening. Soon after the end of asset purchases, the Fed will begin shrinking its mammoth balance sheet. As the chart below shows, it has more than doubled since the start of the pandemic, reaching about $9 trillion, or about 36% of the country’s GDP. It’s so gigantic that even Powell admitted during his January press conference that “the balance sheet is substantially larger than it needs to be.” Captain Obvious attacked again! In contrast to tapering, which just reduces additions to the Fed’s holdings, quantitative tightening will shrink the balance sheet. How much? It’s hard to say. Last time, during QT from 2017 to 2019, the Fed started unloading $10 billion in assets per month, gradually lifting the cap to $50 billion. Given that inflation is now much higher, and the Fed has greater confidence in the economic recovery, the scale of reduction would probably be higher. The QT will create upward pressure on interest rates, which could be negative for the gold market. However, QT will be a very gradual and orderly process. Instead of selling assets directly, the US central bank will stop reinvestment of proceeds as securities run off. As we can read in “Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet”, The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account. What’s more, the previous case of QT wasn’t detrimental to gold, as the chart below shows. The price of gold started to rally in late 2018 and especially later in mid-2019. Third, the hiking cycle. In March, the Fed is going to start increasing the federal funds rate. According to the financial markets, the US central bank will enact five interest rate hikes this year, raising the federal funds rate to the range of 1.25-1.50%. Now, there are two narratives about American monetary policy in 2022. According to the first, we are witnessing a hawkish revolution within the Fed, as it would shift its monetary stance in a relatively short time. The central bank will “double tighten” (i.e., it will shrink its balance sheet at the same time as hiking rates), and it will do it in a much more aggressive way than after the Great Recession. Such decisive moves will significantly raise the bond yields, which will hit gold prices. However, in this scenario, the Fed’s aggressive actions will eventually lead to the inversion of the yield curve and later to recession, which should support the precious metals market. On the other hand, some analysts point out that central bankers are all talk and – given their dovish bias – act less aggressively than they promise, chickening out in the face of the first stock market turbulence. They also claim that all the Fed’s actions won’t be enough to combat inflation and that monetary conditions will remain relatively loose. For example, Stephen Roach argues that “the Fed is so far behind [the curve] that it can’t even see the curve.” Indeed, the real federal funds rate is deeply negative (around -7%), as the chart below shows; and even if inflation moderates to 3.5% while the Fed conducts four hikes, it will remain well below zero (about -2%), providing some support for gold prices. Which narrative is correct? Well, there are grains of truth in both of them. However, I would like to remind you that what really matters for the markets is the change or direction, not the level of a variable. Hence, the fact that real interest rates are to stay extremely low doesn’t guarantee that gold prices won’t decline in a response to the hiking cycle. Actually, as the chart above shows, the upward reversal in the real interest rates usually plunges gold prices. Given that real rates are at a record low, a normalization is still ahead of us. Hence, unless inflation continues to rise, bond yields are likely to move up, while gold – to move down. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

S&P 500 is grinding lower, and bonds concur. Risk-off posture and rising yields aren‘t tech‘s friend really, and the VIX is back to moving up. The odd thing is that the dollar wasn‘t well bid yesterday as could have been expected on rising rates – the sentiment called for a bad non-farm payrolls number today. Understandably so given Wednesday‘s preview, and the figure would just highlight how desperately behind the inflation curve the Fed is, what kind of economy it would be tightening into, and shine more light on its manouevering room for Mar FOMC.Fun times ahead for the bears, and the S&P 500 short profits can go on growing – the ride isn‘t over: If tech – in spite of the great earnings Amazon move – gets clobbered this way again on the rising yields, then we could very well see even energy stocks feel the initial selling wave. Not that value stocks would be unaffected, to put it more than mildly – just check yesterday‘s poor showing of financials. Something is going to give, and soon.Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls are getting slaughtered, and the downhill path is likely to continue, thanks to tech. Brace for a volatile day today.Credit MarketsHYG selling pressure made a strong return, predictably. Credit markets are leading stocks to the downside, certainly.Gold, Silver and MinersAs written yesterday, all this risk-off already in and still to come, is failing to press gold and silver really down – and that tells you the true direction is up. The downswings are being bought.Crude OilCrude oil bulls in the end didn‘t waver, and are pushing higher already – the upside breakout can really stick.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, still positioned for an upside breakout. It would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto bears didn‘t get far, and it looks like we‘re back to some chop ahead. SummaryS&P 500 bulls are getting rightfully challenged again – the Fed hikes are approaching. See though how little are commodities and precious metals affected. Meanwhile the S&P 500 internals keep deteriorating. Today‘s analytical introduction is special in talking the non-farm payrolls and Fed tightening dynamic, and explains why the pressure in stocks to probe lower values, is still building up, and that 4,450 may not be enough to stop it. For all the pause in Fed hawkish jawboning, the tightening cycle is merely getting started, and today‘s surprisingly strong data gives the Fed as much justification as the quickening wage inflation. I hope you enjoyed today‘s extensive analysis and yesterday‘s risk exposure observations. Have a great day ahead!Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Ethereum price made a false break below a short-term trend line yesterday.ETH price breaks above $2,695 and is set for a run towards $3,018.This would mean 13% gains for ETH and a more favourable outlook for next week.Ethereum (ETH) price is set to book the best gains it has made for the whole of 2022, as a bullish candle has now formed on the back of a significant support level. With that move, many bears are getting hurt as they probably fell in the bear trap with the false break below the supportive short-term trend line. Expect more upside to come with global markets enjoying the rally in Amazon shares, which is spilling over into cryptocurrencies and lifting sentiment in ETH towards $3,018.ETH bulls are stabbing bears in the back with a trapEthereum price was dangling below a short-term trend line and looked quite heavy after the slippage (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-sentiments-rolls-over-as-meta-shakes-nasdaq-202202031412) from META earnings. But that markets can change their minds overnight is proven yet again, after Amazon’s earnings fueled a booster rally which we are seeing today. This has spilled over into cryptocurrencies and is lifting sentiment in ETH prices with a firm break above $2,695, squeezing out bears in the process, who went short on the false break of the trend line, and it is now just a matter of time before they close out and take their losses.ETH price is thus set for a second rally today as those bears will need to revert to the buy-side volume (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-pushes-higher-eth-targeting-3-500-202202021800) to close and cut their losses. This will add a boost to ETH prices and could see Ethereum bulls hitting the price target at $3,018, taking out the $3,000 level, and setting the stage for next week. With that move, the red descending trend line could be broken, and with that, the downturn since December, finally (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-pushes-higher-eth-targeting-3-500-202202021800) breaking the chances for bears and setting the stage for a possible longer-term uptrend.ETH/USD daily chartNevertheless, there are still some earnings on the docket for today that could surprise to the downside and see those tailwinds (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-crypto-markets-to-favor-bears-soon-202202020838) as quickly fade as they came. Expect that with that lack of support, ETH price will collapse back to $2,695 and start to weigh further on the bulls. Should that spiral into equities, pushing them firmly in the red, and impacting safe haven flow – expect a dip back towards $2,600.

While everyone is criticizing Russia, it’s easy to follow the US ‘savior’ narrative. However, what if we looked at what’s happening with oil in mind?Disclaimer to today’s article: I’m providing this analysis from a pure energy-focused perspective. I do not claim it represents THE right view, but rather one of those that won’t be as visible in the mainstream. It is interesting to add different views as pieces of the same puzzle. I am looking forward to reading yours in the comments!Picture Source: MemedroidSeveral port facilities in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have been the target of cyberattacks, prompting the judicial authorities to investigate the suspicions of extortion of funds at the expense of German operators in the oil sector. Indeed, it would appear that this series of computer hackings that began several days ago primarily concerns oil terminals. This is disrupting deliveries in several major European ports against a backdrop of soaring energy prices.After jumping the day before, thanks to the strengthening of the euro against the US dollar induced by ECB President Lagarde, oil prices continued to rise during the European session on Friday. Consequently, the fall in the greenback came on top of the recovery in demand, the fall in US crude inventories and the disruptions in supply to boost the price of black gold on the climb, the two crude benchmarks evolving above the psychological mark of 90 dollars a barrel, galvanized by solid demand and tensions on the offer coming from (geo-)political risks.Who is Provoking Who?The situation is rather complex on the geopolitical scene, with the US claiming that Russia is planning an invasion in Ukraine, whereas the US under NATO cover sent additional troops to Eastern Europe. The question that may arise here is: who is provoking who? So far, we haven’t seen Russia placing troops in Mexico, on the border with the United States. On the other hand, the Biden administration may encounter difficulties in accepting that the Kremlin can agree to various partnerships with its European neighbors, especially regarding more favorable energy supplies. Instead, it’s in the US interest to weaken those diplomatic relations, potentially leading to additional partnerships that may arise between the EU and Putin.And as we see the US-led narrative getting through the Western mainstream media with more aggressive, suspicious, and tense tones towards Russia, this obviously has the effect of pouring some oil on the Russian-Ukrainian fire. Furthermore, the US needs reasons to demonstrate that NATO is still alive and relevant while a number of countries are now questioning their own participation in the US-led military organisation created in 1949, even going so far as to show some doubts regarding its current motivations.Isolating the Russian BearBy maintaining a hostile tone towards Russia’s intentions, the US is consequently trying to isolate the Russian bear and push their European partners to blindly follow the “official narrative” (as the EU being part of NATO), which could possibly lead to new sanctions on Russia, the latter being able to retaliate by using its energy assets and capacities to deprive the EU of the Russian supplies, which currently on the gas side represent between 30% and 40% of total gas imports for Europe. Then, as a result, the Americans could start exporting more gas into Europe via Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipping – which again could benefit their energy-led commercial balance – the Europeans thus becoming the losing players in this game.As an example, we saw this week that a tanker loaded with LNG from the US will arrive at the LNG terminal in Świnoujście (Poland) at the end of this month, since Poland has LNG import capabilities which could be used to deliver US gas to Ukraine. Apparently, this is the second time (after the first one took place two years ago) that such gas deliveries are made by PGNiG, the Polish state-controlled oil and gas company, in cooperation with ERU (their strategic trading partner on the Ukrainian market).Actually, Ukraine suspended imports of Russian gas at the end of 2015. After relying on Russian gas imports for decades, they currently increasingly depend on imports from Europe. Since Ukraine has no LNG import capabilities, such US gas deliveries have been organized via a pipeline from the Polish terminal (through re-gasified LNG).WTI Crude Oil (CLH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart)Brent Crude Oil (BRJH22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)RBOB Gasoline (RBH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart)Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGG22) Futures (February contract, daily chart)In summary, geopolitics is always complex because it relies on individual economic and strategic interests of countries. The readings also depend on different views, and since there is always a lot of noise, it often helps to take some steps back in order to analyze the global situation from a different angle.Have a nice weekend! And remember to chime in on the conversation.Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist* * * * *The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Bitcoin is up 9% over the past week, ending at around $41,700. Ethereum is up 15%. Altcoins also woke up from hibernation and grew stronger than the market: from 5.8% (Binance Coin) to 17.3% (Solana).Over the same period, the total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 11.2%, up to $1.99 trillion.The primary growth of the crypto market last week came on Friday when bitcoin at the end of the day soared by 10% in a few hours. The increase was not prevented even by strong data on the US labor market, which came out a couple of hours before the jump.It is worth noting that the Nonfarm Payrolls can force the Fed to move faster to tighten monetary policy. Against this background, the yield of 10-year Treasuries jumped above 1.93%, hitting new two-year highs, and this could soon lead to sales in the stock market. If cryptocurrencies manage to resist and continue to grow, this will be a serious trend reversal order. Just like on Friday, when investors decided to buy BTC in order to protect investments from inflation.Since then, Bitcoin has already added 17%, moving into a phase of an active uptrend. Technically, the first cryptocurrency broke the resistance of the descending corridor. Accelerating growth and steady buying throughout the weekend indicate a strong bullish momentum. Cautious investors are now looking at the test of the 50-day moving average. Previously, repeatedly fixing above this line preceded a multi-month uptrend.Potentially, this will also be lost now. Therefore, some players consider this impulse as an important first signal of a recovery in demand for risky assets, despite fears of a rate increase.Meanwhile, billionaire Ray Dalio has warned that a number of governments could outlaw cryptocurrencies. The government of the Russian Federation is considering introducing a tax on miners of at least 15%. According to the authorities, the tax on all participants in the crypto market can bring up to 1 trillion rubles to the treasury. In the meantime, the Fed has presented the Digital Dollar White Paper, but the issue of its future launch has not yet been resolved.

USDCHF bounces higherThe US dollar rallied after January’s nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations. The latest pullback found support near the previous low at 0.9180.A bullish RSI divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the sell-off. A close above 0.9275 would force short-term sellers to cover and pave the way for a broader rebound.Then the double top (0.9360) on the daily chart would be the next target. On the downside, a bearish breakout may send the pair to 0.9110.USDCAD awaits breakoutThe loonie weakened after a rise in Canada’s unemployment rate in January. The greenback has previously come to a halt at the daily resistance (1.2800).The retracement then found bids at the resistance-turned-support at 1.2650, suggesting traders’ strong interest in keeping the two-week-long rally intact. The RSI has inched into the overbought territory and may drive the price lower with short-term profit-taking.A bullish breakout may extend the uptrend to December’s peak at 1.2950.GER 40 lacks supportThe Dax 40 drifts lower after the ECB’s hawkish turn. The recent rebound met stiff selling pressure at 15740. Then a fall below 15350 indicates a lack of commitment from the buy-side.A bearish MA cross suggests an acceleration to the downside and may attract more bears. The demand area around 14850 is a critical floor on the daily chart. Its breach could trigger a bearish reversal in the medium term.An oversold RSI may cause a limited bounce. The bulls need to reclaim 15500 in order to turn sentiment around.

Friday's US labour market report raised the chances of a sharper Fed rate hike, placing USD on a solid footing.Employment growth of 467K in January was well above forecasts. In addition, there was a noticeable upward revision to the job gains of the previous couple of months. Furthermore, wage growth accelerated to 5.7% y/y, marking the unwinding of the inflationary spiral.The markets are applying a 33% chance of a 50-point key rate hike by the Fed in March, leaving a 67% chance of a standard move of 25 points. This is a dramatic reassessment of the outlook, as just a month ago, rate futures were leaving a 24% chance that there would be no rate hike in March.Hawkish comments from Europe and England has added fuel to the fire. Last week, the Bank of England minutes 4 out of 9 MPC members voted for a 50 point rate hike. The ECB is warming to a rate hike this year and potentially twice, although they rejected the idea back in December.In our view, Friday's labour market report showed that the US still has a head start on the pace of economic recovery, which will allow for more monetary policy tightening.This is potentially positive news for the dollar, which found ground late last week after correcting by 2.3% from its peak in late January. If the Fed strengthens its signals of willingness to hike the rate by 50 points in mid-March in the coming weeks, it will be grounds for stronger dollar buying.History suggests that the momentum of the appreciation of the US currency against major competitors is exhausted a few months after a rate hike. Usually, it becomes clear that other central banks have already moved on to the pace of Fed rate hikes and are often even prepared to act more decisively.But we are not yet in this phase, and the Fed's policy, as well as the US economic indicators, provide the dollar with a head start for the foreseeable future. As early as February, the dollar index could rewrite the January highs near 97.5 against the current 95.56 and take the DXY into the 100-103 area by mid-year.

Industrial production in Germany fell by 0.3% for December and by 4.1% on the same month a year earlier. A deeper fall compared to the previous month, while surveyed analysts on average expected production to rise by 0.4% over the same period.The new data underscores the difficult choices the ECB will have to make in the coming months as record price growth rates go hand in hand with falling economic activity.The ECB will have to make choices as record inflation in decades requires tightening monetary policy and supporting the euro. On the other hand, industrial activity has been in a downtrend for almost four years.A rise in interest rates is likely to increase pressure on manufacturing activity and increase borrowing costs, negatively affecting consumer credit.The market reaction since last week suggests that the ECB will switch to fighting inflation, but the fading momentum in the economy calls this scenario into question

S&P 500 refused to break below 4,450s, and junk bonds took off the lows as well. The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations.Treasuries are telling the story as well – the 10-year yield has been surging lately while the 30-year bond didn‘t move nearly as much. It means a lot of focus on Fed tightening, which is making the recent Amazon and Meta earnings ability to move stocks this much, all the better for the S&P 500 in the short run. The 10-year yield is likely to retrace a part of its prior increase, and that would give stocks some breathing room. At the same time though, I don‘t think that the tech selling is done, that tech is out of the woods now – the current rally is likely to run out of steam over the next 5-10 days, then go sideways to down.As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. Before that, we‘re in a quite wide range where current stock market values aren‘t truly reflecting bond market sluggishness.Keeping in mind the key Friday‘s conclusion:(…) Precious metals are holding up relatively well, regardless of the miners‘ weakness. Commodities can go on enjoying their time in the limelight – crude oil is not even momentarily dipping, and copper stands ready to keep probing higher values within its still sideways range. Even cryptos are benefiting from what could almost be described as a daily flight to safety.As I wrote in extensive Monday‘s analysis and repeated since, stiff winds are still ahead in spite of the soothing verbal pause in tightening. As the 467K figure just in beats expectations, the Fed gets its justification to withdraw liquidity any way it pleases.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future.Credit MarketsHYG paused, and the heavy selling is catching a bid – reprieve is approaching even if Friday‘s highs didn‘t last.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals aren‘t getting anywhere, and are likely to warmly embrace the upcoming pause in higher yields. But that‘s not yet the true fireworks we would get later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn.Crude OilCrude oil bulls aren‘t even remotely pausing – I wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really. There is still much strength in black gold regardless of the Iran sanctions waiver – triple digit oil I called for months ago, is getting near.CopperCopper is back to the middle of its recent range, and the downside looks fairly well defended. The upside breakout would take time, and precede the precious metals one. Rising commodities are still sending a clear message as to which way the wind is blowing.Bitcoin and EthereumThe crypto break higher attests to the return of strength underway, and it‘s supported by the volume. The buyers have the short-term upper hand.SummaryS&P 500 bulls withstood the prospect of hawkish Fed getting more job market leeway on Friday, and look to be entering the week with a slight advantage. Also the bond markets look nearning the moment of calming down as the longer durations are painting a different picture than the 10-year Treasury. S&P 500 would like that, but the tech rebound would get tested as we likely move lower to welcome Mar. Till then, stocks are likely to drift somewhat higher before the rally runs out of steam over the next 5-10 days. Full game plan with reasoning is introduced in the opening part of today‘s extensive analysis. Cryptos good performance on Friday is as promising as the commodities surge – enjoy the days ahead.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

WTI has erased most of an earlier session dip under $91.00 but has been choppy in $91.00-$92.00 rangesSome attributed earlier session profit-taking to positive signs in US/Iran nuclear talks. Traders are also mulling developments regarding geopolitical, near-term supply concerns and ongoing strong demand.WTI was hit by profit-taking in early European trade, dipping at one point underneath the $91.00s. However, trade has since been choppier in both directions, with WTI prices more recently swinging between the $91.00-$92.00 area. At current levels around $91.50, front-month WTI futures trade with losses of about 50 cents on the day and remain only a few bucks below recent seven-year highs above $93.00, as the market mood for the most part remains bullish. Market commentators had cited positive signs on the US/Iran nuclear negotiations front as one trigger for profit-taking earlier in the day; the US restored sanction waivers to Iran that will allow international nuclear cooperation projects. Although the waivers hardly do anything to help the Iranian economy, market commentators said it was a sign of goodwill from the US that showed the country is intent on finding a deal.Iranian crude oil (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/commodities/energy/oil) exports, hobbled by strict US sanctions, currently stand at about 700K barrels per day (BPD) versus pre-US sanction levels of well over 2M BPD. If the US and Iran can agree on a deal to return to the 2015 nuclear pact, this jump in oil exports could help ease upward pressure on crude oil markets in the near term. However, analysts at Fujitomi Securities cautioned that “investors expect more twists and turns in the U.S.-Iranian talks and no agreement to be reached anytime soon.”WTI’s impressive intra-day recovery speaks to the ongoing bullishness of the mood prevailing in crude oil markets. As the US continues to warn that a Russian military incursion into Ukraine could be imminent, the amount of geopolitical risk premia priced into global oil markets remains high. Oil markets will focus on a meeting in Moscow between French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin later in the day, with no progress towards dialing down tensions expected.In the meantime, recent cold weather in the US has hampered near-term output, with Reuters reporting that two major refineries with a combined more than 800K BPD in output were knocked offline. That contributes to the narrative of near-term tightness in global oil markets, just as the Saudis were reported (by Bloomberg) to have raised official oil selling prices for Asian, North American and European customers. Many analysts will remain comfortable in the calls for WTI to hit $100.

Bitcoin price looks overextended as it grapples with the 50-day SMA and the weekly resistance barrier at $42,816. Ethereum price pierces through the bearish breaker and approaches the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Ripple price approaches the $0.757 to $0.807 supply zone that could cut the uptrend short. Bitcoin price has seen tremendous gains over the past three days as it attempts to overcome a massive hurdle. While altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple have corresponded to this bullishness, investors need to exercise caution with fresh investments as a retracement could be around the corner. Bitcoin price faces a decisive moment Bitcoin price has risen 18% over the past four days and is currently hovering below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the weekly resistance barrier confluence at $42,816. If this uptrend is a bull trap, BTC is likely to see rejection followed by a retracement to the immediate support level at $8,481. A breakdown of the said barrier will knock the big crypto down to $34,752. In an extremely bearish case, Bitcoin price could revisit the $30,000 psychological barrier and collect the liquidity resting below it. BTC/USD 1-day chart If BTC produces a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387, however, it will invalidate the bearish thesis. While this development will alleviate the sell-side pressure, it does not mean that Bitcoin price has flipped bullish. A daily candlestick close above $52,000 will produce a higher high and suggest the possible start of an uptrend. Ethereum price slithers close to bearish thesis invalidation Ethereum price has followed the big crypto and pierced the bearish breaker, ranging from $2,789 to $3,167. Any further bullish momentum will push ETH to climb higher and retest the 50-day SMA at $3,242. Assuming BTC retraces, investors can expect Ethereum price to face rejection at $3,242, leading to a 25% pullback to the weekly support level at $2,324. In a highly bearish case, Ethereum price could revisit the $1,730 weekly support level and collect the sell-side liquidity resting below it. ETH/USD 1-day chart Regardless of the bearish outlook, the Ethereum price can invalidate the short-term bearish outlook if it produces a daily candlestick close above the $3,167 resistance zone. A bullish scenario could be kick-started, however, if buyers push ETH to produce a swing high at $3,413. Ethereum price gains momentum to breakout to $3,300 Ripple price faces a blockade Ripple price broke out of its consolidation and rallied 25% from $0.604 to $0.754. This impressive move is currently retesting the weekly resistance barrier at $0.740, which rests below another hurdle that extends from $0.757 to $0.807. Rejection at this multi-resistance zone seems likely considering the situation in which Bitcoin is in, and investors can expect the Ripple price to retrace 16%, returning to the consolidation zone at $0.628. XRP/USD 1-day chart A daily candlestick close above the supply zone’s upper limit at $0.807 will signal a resurgence of buyers and indicate their willingness to move higher. In this case, Ripple price could set up a higher high by rallying 12% to $0.911.    

On Monday, Bitcoin rose 5.5%, ending the day around $44,100. Ethereum added 5%, and other leading altcoins from the top ten also showed growing dynamics: from 4% (Solana) to 18.5% (XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 5.5% over the day to $2.10 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index has not changed, remaining at 39.2%. The Bitcoin chart continues to paint a bullish picture. With the price at $45K on Tuesday morning, BTCUSD is trading above the 50-day moving average just above the mid-January pivot area and above the down channel resistance level. At the same time, the RSI on the daily charts has not yet entered the overbought area, leaving room for further growth.  The same can be said about the entire cryptocurrency market, where the fear and greed index has reached a neutral point of 48 and is still far from the greed area. The next target for the bulls looks to be $48K, the December support area in December. Further targets are $49-50K, where the 200-day moving average and significant round level are concentrated. The XRP token soared amid reports of a significant approach to the resolution of Ripple's legal dispute with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).Cryptocurrencies briefly stopped responding to movements in US stock indices, which started the week with a decline. The purchases probably included retail investors, who were driven by the desire not to miss the beginning of the market growth (FOMO). However, their buying potential is unlikely to be enough if stock indicators intensify their decline and large institutional investors come into play, wishing to resume profit-taking. KPMG, one of the world's largest auditors, has added Bitcoin and Ethereum to its Canadian division's corporate reserves. This is the firm's first direct investment in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, at the end of 2021, Tesla received a loss of $ 101 million from a decrease in the cost of previously purchased bitcoins, which it spent $ 1.5 billion on. Previously, Elon Musk called the decision to acquire BTC as a reserve asset quite risky. 

  Gold’s latest feats increased investors’ appetite. The outlook for the dollar, however, remains healthy. That can only mean one thing. As volatility erupts across the financial markets, gold and silver prices are being pulled in conflicting directions. For example, with the USD Index suffering a short-term decline, the outcome is fundamentally bullish for the precious metals. However, with U.S. Treasury yields rallying, the outcome is fundamentally bearish for gold and silver prices. Then, with panic selling and panic buying confronting the general stock market, the PMs are dealing with those crosscurrents. However, with QE on its deathbed and the Fed poised to raise the Federal Funds Rate in the coming months, the common denominator is rising real interest rates. To explain, the euro’s recent popularity has impacted the USD Index. For context, the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the dollar basket’s movement. Thus, if real interest rates rise and the U.S. dollar falls, what will happen to the PMs? Well, the reality is that rising real interest rates are bullish for the USD Index, and the euro’s recent ECB-induced rally is far from a surprise. With investors often buying the EUR/USD in anticipation of a hawkish shift from the ECB, another ‘hopeful’ upswing occurred. However, the central bank disappointed investors time and time again in 2021, and the currency pair continued to make new lows. As a result, we expect the downtrend to resume over the medium term.  Supporting our expectations, I wrote the following about financial conditions and the USD Index on Feb. 2: To explain, the blue line above tracks Goldman Sachs' Financial Conditions Index (FCI). For context, the index is calculated as a "weighted average of riskless interest rates, the exchange rate, equity valuations, and credit spreads, with weights that correspond to the direct impact of each variable on GDP." In a nutshell: when interest rates increase alongside credit spreads, it's more expensive to borrow money and financial conditions tighten. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the FCI has surpassed its pre-COVID-19 high (January 2020). Moreover, the FCI bottomed in January 2021 and has been seeking higher ground ever since. In the process, it's no coincidence that the PMs have suffered mightily since January 2021. To that point, with the Fed poised to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, the FCI should continue its ascent. As a result, the PMs' relief rallies should fall flat like in 2021.  Likewise, while the USD Index has come down from its recent high, it's no coincidence that the dollar basket bottomed with the FCI in January 2021 and hit a new high with the FCI in January 2022. Thus, while the recent consolidation may seem troubling, the medium-term fundamentals supporting the greenback remain robust. Furthermore, tighter financial conditions are often a function of rising real interest rates. As mentioned, the USD Index bottomed with the FCI and surged to new highs with the FCI. As a result, the fundamentals support a stronger, not weaker USD Index. As evidence, the U.S. 10-Year real yield, the FCI, and the USD Index have traveled similar paths since January 2020. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the USD Index since January 2020, while the red line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year real yield. While the latter didn’t bottom in January 2021 like the USD Index and the FCI (though it was close), all three surged in late 2021 and hit new highs in 2022. Moreover, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury nominal and real yields hit new 2022 highs on Feb. 4.  In addition, if you compare the two charts, you can see that all three metrics spiked higher when the coronavirus crisis struck in March 2020. As such, the trio often follows in each other’s footsteps. Furthermore, with the Fed likely to raise interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting, this realization supports a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield, and a higher FCI. As a result, the fundamentals underpinning the USD Index remain robust, and short-term sentiment is likely to be responsible for the recent weakness.  Likewise, as the Omicron variant slows U.S. economic activity, the ‘bad news is good news’ camp has renewed hopes for a dovish Fed. However, the latest strain is unlikely to affect the Fed’s reaction function. A case in point: after ADP’s private payrolls declined by 301,000 in January (data released on Feb. 2), concern spread across Wall Street. However, after U.S. nonfarm payrolls (government data) came in at 467,000 versus 150,000 expected on Feb. 4, the U.S. labor market remains extremely healthy.  Please see below: Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) On top of that, the BLS revealed that “the over-the-month employment change for November and December 2021 combined is 709,000 higher than previously reported, while the over-the-month employment change for June and July 2021 combined is 807,000 lower. Overall, the 2021 over-the-year change is 217,000 higher than previously reported.”  Thus, the U.S. added more than 700,000 combined jobs in November and December than previously reported, and the net gain in 2021 was more than 200,000. Please see below: Source: BLS As for wage inflation, the BLS also revealed: “In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 23 cents to $31.63. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.7 percent.” As a reminder, while investors speculate on the prospect of a hawkish ECB, the latest release out of Europe shows that wage inflation is much weaker than in the U.S. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 1: Eurozone hourly labor costs rose by 2.5% YoY on Dec. 16 (the latest release). Moreover, the report revealed that “the costs of wages & salaries per hour worked increased by 2.3%, while the non-wage component rose by 3.0% in the third quarter of 2021, compared with the same quarter of the previous year.”  As a result, non-wage labor costs – like insurance, healthcare, unemployment premiums, etc. – did the bulk of the heavy lifting. In contrast, wage and salary inflation are nowhere near the ECB’s danger zone. Please see below: And why is wage inflation so critical? Well, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Jan. 25: Source: ECB As a result, when the ECB’s Chief Economist tells you that wage inflation needs to hit 3% YoY to be “consistent” with the ECB’s 2% overall annual inflation target, a wage print of 2.3% YoY is far from troublesome. Thus, while euro bulls hope that the ECB will mirror the Fed and perform a hawkish 180, the data suggests otherwise.  In addition, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls materially outperformed on Feb. 4, I noted on Feb. 2 that there are now 4.606 million more job openings in the U.S. than citizens unemployed. Please see below: To explain, the green line above subtracts the number of unemployed U.S. citizens from the number of U.S. job openings. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the epic collapse has completely reversed and the green line is now at an all-time high. Thus, with more jobs available than people looking for work, the economic environment supports normalization by the Fed. Thus, if we piece the puzzle together, the U.S. labor market remains healthy and U.S. inflation is materially outperforming the Eurozone. As a result, the Fed should stay ahead of the ECB, and the hawkish outperformance supports a weaker EUR/USD and a stronger USD Index. Moreover, the dynamic also supports a higher FCI and a higher U.S. 10-Year real yield. As we’ve seen since January 2021, these fundamental outcomes are extremely unkind to the PMs. Finally, while the Omicron variant has depressed economic sentiment, I noted previously that the disruptions should be short-lived. For example, with Americans’ anxiety about COVID-19 decelerating, renewed economic strength should keep the pressure on the Fed. Please see below: To explain, the light brown line above tracks the net percentage of Americans concerned about COVID-19, while the dark brown line above tracks the change in flight search trends on Kayak. In a nutshell: the more concern over COVID-19 (a high light brown line), the more Americans hunker down and avoid travel (a low dark brown line). However, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the light brown line has rolled over and the dark brown line has materially risen. Moreover, with the trend poised to persist as the warmer weather arrives, increased mobility should uplift sentiment, support economic growth, and keep the Fed’s rate hike cycle on schedule. The bottom line? The USD Index’s fundamentals remain extremely healthy, and while short-term sentiment has been unkind, rising real yields and a hawkish Fed should remain supportive over the medium term. Moreover, with the PMs often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, more downside should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks over the next few months. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 4, despite the spike in U.S. Treasury yields. However, with so much volatility confronting the general stock market recently, sentiment has pulled the PMs in many directions. However, the important point is that the medium-term thesis remains intact: the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields should seek higher ground, and the realization is profoundly bearish for the precious metals sector. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

XAUUSD breaks resistance Gold continues to recover as the US dollar treads water. The previous fall below the daily support at 1785 had put the bulls on the defensive. The RSI’s oversold signal attracted some buying interest and prompted sellers to cover, driving up the price. The rebound has since gained traction after the metal rallied above the support-turned-resistance at 1817. In fact, the bullish breakout may raise momentum and open the door to the recent peak at 1850. On the downside, 1795 is a major support to keep buyers committed. NZDUSD remains under pressure The New Zealand dollar edges lower amid cautious market sentiment at the start of the week. The pair previously bounced off September 2020’s low around 0.6530. However, 0.6700 on the 20-day moving average so far has proven to be a tough hurdle. A drop below the fresh support (0.6630) indicates that the directional bias remains bearish. And sellers would be eager to fade another rebound. 0.6590 is the closest support. A break below 0.6530 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards 0.6400. UK 100 awaits breakout The FTSE 100 rallies supported by solid performance in the commodity sector. The recent rebound hit resistance near the January peak at 7640. Narrowing consolidation and higher highs suggest increased buying pressure. A bullish breakout would flush sellers out and attract momentum traders, firing up volatility in the process. This would be a strong bullish continuation signal. 7460 is a fresh support if the market remains indecisive. Its breach could extend the correction back to 7250.

Tightening monetary conditions in developed countries are not hurting gold so far, and investors' switch from buying risky stocks generates demand for the safe-haven. The daily charts also clearly show gold being repurchased in downturns. Since late last year, impulsive drawbacks on hawkish Fed comments are pushing the price down, but this momentum is not turning into a trend. Buyer support comes from higher and higher levels, although these purchases are measured and tempered, typical for long-term buyers. Such buyers could be central banks, which could diversify away from the dollar and the euro. But there could also be funds that want to stay away from bonds falling in price (on rising yields) at a time of steep rate rises. We can see the increasingly higher lows from August last year on the monthly candlestick charts for gold. So far, high inflation rates and market caution have not allowed a sustained upward trend in the price. However, the presence of solid buyers could revive buying very soon. An important reason for this could be developments in the Eurozone. Rising market interest rates are hitting the region's debt-laden periphery countries twice as hard. Investors may be worried about a repeat of the sovereign debt crisis of 2009-2011. Back then, investors used gold as a protective asset, losing confidence in the debt of almost half of the eurozone countries. It is too early to say that a repeat of the debt crisis is imminent, but early signs of a jump in Greek and Italian bond yields are forming a support for gold. If this trend turns into a problem, active buyers of safe havens promise to become many times more numerous

S&P 500 bulls missed the opportunity, but credit markets didn‘t turn down. Yesterday‘s pause is indicative of more chop ahead – the risk-on rally can‘t be declared yet as having run out of steam, no matter the crypto reversal of today. Bonds are in the driver‘s seat, and the dollar is also cautious – unless these move profoundly either way, the yesterday described S&P 500 reprieve can still play out even if: (…) The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that we would have lower to go still, ultimately bottoming around late Feb, perhaps even early Mar. Increasingly more Fed hikes are being priced in, and Friday‘s good non-farm payrolls figure is reinforcing these expectations. As for the immediate plan for Monday‘s session, I think the 4460s would hold on any retest, should we get there at all. The bulls have a very short-term advantage, then as mentioned above, selling would resume, and around May or June we could get the answer as to whether we‘ve been just consolidating or topping out. The 4,460s are still holding while commodities look to be consolidating today. As the dollar is up somewhat, bonds would have to face opening headwinds – the effect upon tech would be telling. I‘m still looking for downswing rejection in stocks while precious metals would hold up better than commodities today. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook As stated yesterday, S&P 500 bulls aren‘t yet winning, but have a good chance to suck in those who believe the tech bottom is in – tech bears would get another opportunity in the not too distant future. Credit Markets HYG gave up the opening strength, and the bulls are likely to get under pressure soon – it‘s that yesterday‘s session lacked volume, thus interest of the buyers. The clock is ticking. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals keep refusing to make lower lows – that‘s the most important aspect of their tempered ascent. And price gains would accelerate later in 2022, which would come on the Fed‘s abrupt U-turn. Crude Oil Now, crude oil bulls did pause, but the dip isn‘t likely to reach too far – I still wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really – oil stocks would have to turn decidedly down first. Copper Copper is getting cautious, and would probably decline should the commodities pause continue – no matter what other base metals would do at the same time. Still, that‘s internal strength in the waiting, similarly to the precious metals strength. Bitcoin and Ethereum The crypto break higher ran out of steam, warning of a rickety ride ahead – not just in cryptos. Things can still get volatile. Summary S&P 500 bulls haven‘t lost the opportunity to force higher prices, but need to repel the upcoming intraday flush that can come today, and possibly even continue tomorrow. Yes, instead of seizing upon the chance, bonds have merely paused, creating a perfect environment for whipsawish trading today – I‘m still expecting Friday‘s lows to hold on a closing basis, but I‘m not ruling out a fake breakdown first. The very short-term outlook is simply choppy until the bond market upswing kicks in in earnest. And that would provide more fuel to precious metals and commodities while pressuring the dollar – seems though we would have to wait for a while to see that happen. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The latest employment report strongly supports the Fed’s hawkish narrative. Surprisingly, gold has shown remarkable resilience against it so far. What a surprise! The US labor market added 467,000 jobs last month. As the chart below shows, the number is below December’s figure (+510,000) but much above market expectations – MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted only 150,000 added jobs. Thus, the report reinforces the optimistic view of the US economy’s strength, especially given that the surprisingly good nonfarm payrolls came despite the disruption to consumer-facing businesses from the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. The unemployment rate increased slightly from 3.9% in December to 4% in January, as the chart above shows. However, it was accompanied by a rise in both the labor force participation rate (from 61.9% to 62.2%) and the employment-population ratio (from 59.5% to 59.7%). Last but not least, average hourly earnings have jumped 5.7% over the last 12 months, as you can see in the next chart. It indicates that wage inflation has intensified recently, despite the surge in COVID-19 cases that was expected by some analysts to dent demand for workers. Hence, the January employment report will cement the hawkish case for the Fed. Rising wages will add to the argument for decisive hiking of interest rates, while the surprisingly strong payrolls will strengthen the Fed’s confidence in the US economy.   Implications for Gold What does the latest employment report imply for the gold market? The unexpectedly high payrolls should be negative for the yellow metal. However, while gold prices initially plunged below $1,800, they rebounded quickly, returning above its key level, as the chart below shows. Gold’s resilience in the face of a strong jobs report is noteworthy and quite encouraging. After all, the report strengthened the US dollar and boosted market expectations of a 50-basis point hike in the federal funds rate in March (from 2.6% one month ago to more than 14% now). Such a big move is unlikely, but the point is that financial conditions are tightening without waiting for the Fed’s actual actions. In the past, gold disliked strong economic reports and rising bond yields and showed a negative correlation with nonfarm payrolls, but not this time. More generally, although long-term fundamentals have turned more bearish in recent months, gold has remained stuck at $1,800. However, last week, two factors could have supported gold prices. The first was rising volatility in the equity market. The S&P 500 Index dropped almost 500 points, or 10%, in January, as the chart below shows. Although it has recovered somewhat, it still remains substantially below the top, with the tech sector experiencing weakness. On Thursday, the shares of Meta, Facebook’s parent company, plunged more than 20%. The second potentially bullish driver was last Thursday’s meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council. The central bank of the Eurozone was more hawkish than expected. Christine Lagarde acknowledged inflationary risks and said that she had become more concerned with the recent surge in inflation. According to initial estimates, the annual inflation rate in the euro area amounted to 5.1% in January 2022, the highest since the common currency was created. Lagarde also backed off her previous guidance that the interest rate hike was “very unlikely” in 2022. The ECB’s pivot – the central bank opening the door for the first rate increase since 2011 – boosted the euro against the greenback. The bottom line is that gold has made itself comfortable around $1,800 and simply doesn’t want – or is not ready – to go away in either direction, at least not yet. The battle between bulls and bears is still on. I’m afraid that, given the relatively aggressive monetary and financial tightening, the sellers will win this clash and gold will drop before the bulls can regain control over the market. However, recent gold’s resilience indicates that there is an underlying bid in the markets and bulls are not giving up. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Stacking bitcoins winning edges It is not the number of edges that get it low risk. And again, there are no hidden magic formulas. What works well is covering multiple aspects in stacking one’s edges: Market behavior Time of day Oscillators for ranging markets Indicators for trending markets Supply/demand zone identification (VWAP=volume weighted average price, in addition to support and resistance lines) Inter-market relationships Leading/lagging (relative strength within a sector or group) Candlestick pattern Volume Time frame relationships Action-reaction principle News Day of the week Swing leg count MAE (=maximum adverse excursion) Mathematical/statistical edges like standard deviation Your list might look vastly different but should include tools that cover the principal variants of market behavior (ranging, trending, slow/fast price action, liquidity, time, volume, transactions). Investopedia is a good research tool for finding definitions and explanations of the various available technical tools. BTC in US-Dollar, daily chart, how we stack odds in our favor: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 8th, 2022. Our previous chart book release described fundamental reasons for being bullish on bitcoin, which we stack in a similar principled fashion. We pointed out that we were looking for low-risk entry points to build up a long-term position for bitcoin. Such a low-risk opportunity arose on February 3rd, last week. We had the following edges stacked at the time of entry (green arrow): General price strength (directional yellow line channel) Previous day retracement (action-reaction principle) Small range Doji for tight stop and possible reversal indication VWAP (blue histogram to the right of the chart) indicating a supply zone Scheduled ECB news item out of the way Time of week Time of day (we entered near the close of the daily candle) Extended from the mean (blue line, standard deviation) Commodity Channel Index (CCI). A momentum-based oscillator useful in congested sideways channels, gave the prior day to execution indication of a long entry (yellow arrow) We posted our entry in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Within a 24-hour period, we could profit on half of the position size for a gain of 8.73%. We also posted this first profit-taking target in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Our quad exit strategy provides income-producing revenues like this but, even more, eliminates risk. Consequently, this approach supports trading the remaining position with psychological ease for the intended long-term holding period. Hence, even starting out as a a short-term trade, the last 25% of the initial position can become a long-term invest. BTC in US-Dollar, weekly chart, well-positioned: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 8th, 2022. With previous entries at recent lows established in much the same manner, we are now exposed to the market with seven remaining rest positions at zero risk. Such an approach can afford to negate whether this will be the long-term turning point or not. Profits have been made. Should our plan pan out, then the remaining exposed capital will lead to further profits. Otherwise, this remaining position size will stop out at breakeven entry level. The weekly chart shows now a confirmed situation of a weekly bar takeout. For most traders this is an entry signal while we were already well established. We are playing with the market’s money and profits banked. With this time frame alignment more money is expected to join the long side. The chart also illustrates the favorable risk/reward-ratio to the right of the chart.   BTC in US-Dollar, monthly chart, early bird: Bitcoin in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of February 8th, 2022. A glance at the monthly chart shows we are positioned very early and aggressively for this time frame. Nevertheless, as soon as prices might reach US$48,000, we will find ourselves here as well time frame aligned with a bar takeout. Green numbers show our entry prices for January with two entries and February with five entries. Should prices move upwards in our favor, we would take again partial profits near the red horizontal trend line slightly below all-time highs. The remaining positions stays in place for a possible breakout to all-time new highs. Too late if you are not positioned yet? No! This continuous flow of adding low-risk entry trades followed by partial profit-taking allows participating at all stages of market swings. Stacking bitcoins winning edges: In short, you want to have a clear instruction sheet on what to do in whatever market condition bitcoin throws at you. With a set of tools broadly covering all these variants and measuring them, you will be able to act without hesitancy. Then you can hope for the best, since you planned for the worst. Risk control is the core of each advanced trading approach! We aim to keep it simple, like a card counter, which supports executing high probability winning trades. At the same time, the crowd is confronted by surprising news or fast-moving markets. They use reactionary, inappropriate execution, which in turn creates losing trades. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 6th, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, Bitcoin bullish, bitcoin consolidation, crypto analysis, Crypto Bull, crypto chartbook, DeFi, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments About the Author: Korbinian Koller Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Sandbox price action has broken above $4.72 but fades in early trading today. SAND price action is at the intersection of a red descending trend line and the historical pivot level. Expect current favourable tailwinds to boost confidence for bulls leading to a break to the upside and new all-time highs. Sandbox (SAND) price action broke above $4.72 yesterday and saw bulls trying to test $5.0. But the intersection of the descending trend line and a pivot level proved to be too heavy and pushed price action back below the $4.72 historical level. Expect bulls to keep supporting as more tailwinds coming from geopolitics support the case for more upside potential towards $6.0. Sandbox price targets $6 for this week Sandbox price looked set to finally end the downtrend since November 25. The intersection of the red descending trend line dictating the downtrend and the historical $4.72 pivotal historic level from November 23, proved too big of a hurdle for price action to close above yesterday. Instead, bulls decided to take profit with price fading as we speak. SAND does not need to one-directionally tank further but will probably see bulls keeping price close to the pivotal $4.72 level. With several favorable tailwinds, such as positive news from talks between Putin and Macron, investors look to be back on the scene and putting some money on the table to invest in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This will filter through in the demand side volume and will provide the needed impetus to punch through $4.72 again and close above, putting an end to the downtrend and targeting $6.0 this week. SAND/USD daily chart The resistance double whammy at the aforementioned intersection could prove too big of a temptation for profit-taking, and result in the Relative Strength Index dipping further, below 50, and translate into further downside for the altcoin towards $4.28, making it even harder to try for a daily close above $4.72. That could lead to yet more liquidation and see a return to a base level around $3.50.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin showed a growing momentum at the beginning of the day and reached five-week highs above $45,000. After a short-term rise above this level, a corrective decline began in the middle of the day. The benchmark cryptocurrency was losing more than $2,000 despite the rise in stock indices. There was a sharp rebound towards the end of the day and closed the day almost unchanged as a result. Recovery in institutional demand for stocks late in the day on Tuesday helped Bitcoin stay above the 50-day moving average as well. Continued buying on the decline to this level will keep the technical picture bullish as upside momentum develops to $49-50K. A sharp dip lower today or tomorrow will raise the issue of a false break and bring the sellers back into play, heading for $37-38K. It became known that at the end of last week, the Canadian exchange fund Purpose Bitcoin ETF bought 1.75 thousand BTC in two days, which could lead to a sharp increase in prices. In addition, Valkyrie Investments has received approval from the SEC to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on the shares of companies that receive at least 50% of their profits through mining. At the same time, the US authorities confiscated bitcoins stolen from the Bitfinex crypto exchange in 2016 for $3.6 billion and detained those involved in the hack. The Russian Federation government approved the concept of the Ministry of Finance for the regulation of cryptocurrencies: a joint bill should be ready by February 18. Overall, Bitcoin gained 0.3% on Tuesday, ending the day around $44,200. Ethereum was down 1.3%, while the other leading altcoins in the top ten were mixed from a 5.7% decline (Binance Coin) to an increase of 5.4% (XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 1.2% over the day to $2.09 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index increased by 0.8% over the day, to 40%.  

  The S&P 500 index remains close to the 4,500 level following last week’s retreat. Was this just a downward correction? The broad stock market index lost 0.37% on Monday, as it continued to fluctuate within a short-term consolidation. The broad stock market’s gauge retraced some of its recent rally, as it fell to the local low of 4,451.50 on Friday. The market found a short-term bottom after reversing from last Wednesday’s local high of 4,595.31. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.2% lower. We will likely see more consolidation along the 4,500 level. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,540, market by the recent local highs. The resistance level is also at 4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,400-4,450. The S&P 500 continues to trade below the November-January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Nasdaq 100 Remains Relatively Weaker The technology Nasdaq 100 index followed a similar path last week, as it retraced some of the rally. It remains relatively weaker than the broad stock market. The support level is at 13,800-14,000, and the resistance level is at 15,000-15,200. Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It broke above the short-term downward trend line a week ago before rallying up to around the 4,600 level. It’s trading along the 4,500 level after backing from the Wednesday’s high of 4,586. The market remains close to the resistance level of its previous local lows, but there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. So in our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index trades within a short-term consolidation following the decline from last week’s Wednesday’s local high. The market will likely extend its consolidation, as investors will be waiting for the Thursday’s Consumer price index release. The quarterly earnings season is mostly over now, and there is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely trade within a consolidation ahead of the important Thursday’s consumer inflation number release. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

EURUSD hits resistance The euro fell back after ECB President Lagarde tried to cool rate hike expectations. The rally came under pressure at the January peak of 1.1480. The RSI’s overextension at this daily resistance prompted momentum buyers to cash in. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling may drive the exchange rate lower. Short-term sentiment remains upbeat though unless the single currency drops below the origin of its bullish push at 1.1270. A recovery above 1.1480 could pave the way to last October’s high at 1.1690. GBPUSD consolidates gains The sterling turns higher as traders price in an increasingly hawkish Bank of England. A break above 1.3520 forced sellers to cover some of their positions. However, the pound’s rally came to a halt in the supply zone around 1.3620. The RSI’s overbought situation and bearish divergence suggest softness in the underlying momentum. The pair found bids on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3490), which sits in the aforementioned supply area. A new rally may propel the pair to the daily resistance at 1.3750. US 30 bounces higher The Dow Jones 30 inches higher supported by better-than-expected earnings. The index steadied after successive breaks above 34800 and 35450. Nonetheless, the recent recovery slowed down on the 30-day moving average, a sign of a lingering cautious mood. 34500 is a key support to keep the rebound relevant. A bearish breakout could extend the correction to 33800. On the upside, a rally above 35700 could attract momentum traders and initiate a bullish reversal to 36500.

NIO stock gets a strong rating from latest Barclays research. NIO remains bearish and is down 25% year to date. NIO and other Chinese EV names remain in growth mode as the latest delivery data showed. NIO stock remains mired as it ended Monday virtually flat. The stock is down over 40% from three months ago as Chinese names see international investors flee on regulatory concerns. NIO Stock News It has been a turbulent time for holders of Chinese tech stocks. Alibaba's ANT Group spin-off set things off. Then the DIDI delisting not long after its IPO added to woes. Then a host of regulatory crackdowns was the final straw for international investors who bailed out of the names en masse. This is despite the EV names in particular remaining on track from a growth perspective as all have posted strong delivery data. While January deliveries slowed from December, the yearly growth rates still are impressive. January is traditionally the slowest month of the year in China though due to the lunar new year. NIO for example delivered 7.9% fewer vehicles in January versus December. On a yearly basis, January deliveries were 33.6% higher. This was replicated across many other Chinese EV names. Now Barclays has picked up the theme as it issues a bullish note this morning. "We believe that the rapid adoption of EVs around the world and booming EV sales have presented China’s EV makers a rare opportunity to not only take a sizable market share of the domestic auto market – the largest in the world with about 25-30% global share by units sold per annum – but also build a dominant position on the world stage." Barclays put a $34 price target on the shares. This does highlight the potential growth potential of Chinese tech stocks and the EV space in particular. We question whether investors will reenter, however, having been let down previously. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice... Ok, let's not have another George W. Bush moment! The point is a valid one. It will likely take more than analyst upgrades to tempt investors back to the space. Goldman, the king of investment banks, has previously been strongly bullish on NIO and to no avail. It will take a series of strong earnings and relative calm in terms of regulatory concerns to eventually tempt investors back. NIO Stock Forecast The recent spike lower did fill the gap from back in October 2020. The market just loves to fill gaps. We also note this spike lower created a shooting star candle, a possible reversal signal. There is already a bullish divergence from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as shown. The area around $27.34 is the first resistance. Getting back above indicates the bearish trend may finally be slowing. That would then bring NIO into a range-bound zone from $27 to $32. Only breaking $33.80 from January 3 ends the downtrend. Support is at $14 from the strong volume profile. Look for an RSI breakout as that could signal more gains. The RSI has been shrinking in range and may test an upside breakout. NIO 1-day chart

Stock markets continue their shaky recovery. On Tuesday, intraday trading patterns in US equities point to a buying trend on declines. The S&P500 and Dow Jones indices rebounded from their 200-day simple moving average. Both indices were below those levels in the second half of January. Still, by the beginning of February, they managed to get back above them on the substantial buying activity of the retail investors. Yesterday's stock market dynamics slightly reduced the tension. Increased buying at the end of the session indicates a buying mood for professional market participants. There have been increasing reports from US investment banks that markets have already priced in a tight monetary policy scenario and will not press equity prices further. Moreover, BlackRock recently noted that markets had priced in overly hawkish expectations. The bond market also looks oversold, declining in previous weeks at the fastest pace since 2008. This is a good reason, at least for a technical rebound. In addition, buyers are supported by strong economic and wage growth, promising corporate earnings stability for the foreseeable future. The switch to a monetary tightening phase turns the market into a more frequent and deeper corrective pullback mode but does not trigger a bear market before a rate hike even begins. Strong fundamentals support a bullish technical picture, with a recovery from the strongest oversold S&P500 RSI and the ability to pop above the 200-day average. From this perspective, the January drawdown has cleared the way for growth, recharging buyers. On an equity level, we can see stabilisation and sharp upward moves in stocks that have been weak since June and shone in the pandemic before that: Peloton, Netflix, GameStop. In theory, this could be a dead cat bounce, but it reduces the selling pressure in blue-chip stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and straightens out the overall market sentiment.

GBPUSD is gaining 0.35% on Wednesday, surpassing 1.3585, not far from the month's highs of 1.3620. The British pound is closely correlated with equity market dynamics, and the latest upward momentum in major global indices supports GBP buyers. Also noteworthy is that the Bank of England switched to the next gear in its monetary policy tightening as last week's rate hike was 25 b. p. rather than 50 b. p. by only a slight margin. The euro is also losing ground against the pound after a sharp spike at the ECB meeting. In our view, the EURGBP surge was caused by a technical bounce on touching the 6-year low area. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's stance suggests a much more decisive rate hike, which should provide a carry trade inflow into the pound and further push up the British currency. With the continued upward trajectory of equity indices, a renewal of the 6-year highs of the pound to the euro and a test of the 1.3750 area should come in just a matter of weeks.

Bitcoin price slows down its ascent after flipping the $42,748 hurdle into a foothold. Ethereum price contemplates a retracement after facing the 50-day SMA at $3,208. Ripple price looks ready for consolidation after a 51% ascent over the past four days. Bitcoin price rally is slowing, allowing bulls to take a breather before the next leg-up. While some might argue the short-term outlook looks bearish – due to the flash crash in January, the bigger picture reveals cryptocurrency (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies) markets still have the potential to go higher. A Wells Fargo report published in February reveals that cryptocurrency adoption is growing exponentially and, in many cases, resembles the growth curve of internet adoption. The American financial corporation even goes on to state the crypto sector could soon exit the initial phases of adoption and enter “an inflection point of hyper-adoption.” Wells Fargo Report: Internet usage history vs crypto users Bitcoin price at a decisive moment Bitcoin price rallied 25% in the last four days and set up a swing high at $45,539.(https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-begins-correction-after-45k-rejection-where-can-btc-price-bounce-next-202202081914) The rally rippled out, triggering copycat moves in other altcoins and the cryptocurrency market in general. Yet BTC failed to produce a daily candlestick close above the breaker’s upper limit at $44,387. So, as a result, the bearish outlook is still in play. Investors should be prepared for anything between a minor retracement and a full-blow bear trap. An optimistic scenario will likely see BTC retest the weekly support level at $39,481 before triggering the next leg-up. A more pessimistic scenario, however, would speculate that Bitcoin price could crash to $34,752. A breakdown of this support floor could be the key to triggering a crash to $30,000 or lower. BTC/USD 1-day chart While things look on the fence for Bitcoin price, (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin) a daily candlestick close above $44,387 will invalidate the bearish thesis. A bullish regime, however, will only kick-start if BTC produces a daily candlestick (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart/candlestick-patterns) close above $52,000.   Ethereum price takes a breather Ethereum (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/ethereum) price seems to be undergoing a pullback (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-holds-above-3k-but-network-data-suggests-bulls-may-get-trapped-202202090153) as it faces off with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,208 while still hovering inside a bearish breaker, extending from $2,789 to $3,167. A rejection here could lead to a retracement to $2,812, where buyers have a chance at restarting the uptrend. Assuming the bullish momentum picks up, there is a good chance ETH could slice through the $3,208 and make a run for the $3,413 hurdle. The local top for Ethereum price could be capped around the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at roughly $3,600. ETH/USD 1-day chart On the other hand, if Ethereum price fails to stay above $2,812, it will indicate that buyers are taking a backseat. This development will invalidate the bullish scenario and trigger a crash to the weekly support level at $2,324. Ethereum price could liquidate bulls if ETH falls below $3,000 Ripple price to reestablish directional bias Ripple price broke out of its ten-day consolidation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/xrp-price-could-easily-return-to-1-under-one-condition-202202081437) and rallied 51% in just four days. This run-up sliced through the $0.740 and $0.817 hurdles, flipping them into support levels. While this climb was impressive, XRP price is likely to retrace as investors begin to book profits. The resulting selling pressure could push Ripple price down to the $0.740 support level where buyers can band together for a comeback. In some cases, the U-turn might not arrive until a retest of the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone. Regardless, investors can expect XRP price to run up to $1 and collect the liquidity resting above it. XRP/USD 1-day chart On the contrary, if the Ripple price fails to stay above the $0.595 to $0.632 demand zone, it will reveal the lack of bullish momentum and hint that a further descent is likely. In this case, XRP price will sweep below the $0.518 support level to collect the sell-side liquidity resting beneath. XRP price could easily return to $1 under one condition

Peloton shares continue to be the most discussed stock on mainstream and social media. Two straight days of 20%-plus gains for PTON stock. The new CEO gets just the start he would have wanted. It is not exactly reassuring to your confidence when you step down as CEO of a company and the stock immediately explodes higher. Investors clearly had enough of Peloton's (PTON) former CEO John Foley. New man Barry McCarthy hits the ground running despite some mixed commentary from the analyst community this morning. Peloton Stock News Peloton reported earnings on Tuesday. The stock had already surged on news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) of a new CEO and continued reports that the company may be in the sights of big tech eyeing a potential takeover for the beleaguered fitness company. Revenue came in at $1.13 billion below the $1.15 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) came in below estimates at $-1.39 versus the $-1.20 estimate. The outlook was also weak with Peloton seeing full-year 2022 revenue at $3.8 billion, while analysts had forecast $4 billion. Following the results, Stifel maintained its buy rating on PTON with a $45 price target. Macquarie maintained its outperform rating with a lowered $60 price target, while Barclays also lowered its price target to $60 as well. Bank of America said, "Our estimates that assumed price cuts would drive new demand were too optimistic." BofA has a $42 price target for the stock. Peloton shares had already been strongly ahead in Tuesday's premarket before the earnings release. This was due to the new CEO and a cost-cutting plan including laying off 2,800 employees. The list of potential buyers for Peloton continued to grow as speculation mounted. Potential acquirers include virtually every major fitness company, numerous big tech firms, Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank. We do question whether in particular big tech would get much benefit out of the acquisition. Fitness has been a big part of the wearable market, and Peloton's subscribers are its value, but do Apple, Amazon and Google really struggle that much for users? Sports companies mentioned include Nike (NKE) and Adidas (ADDYY). These may make more sense as the subscribers could generate more value, add-ons and ancillary sales. Peloton Stock Forecast The weekly chart (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart) gives us all the information we need going back to the launch in September 2019. Peloton (PTON) rallied all the way up to $171 this time last year before steadily falling back. The stock has now totally retraced all of the pandemic gains and then some. In that respect, investors may be tempted to buy into the name as subscribers in 2019 totaled just over 500,000, whereas currently Peloton has 2.77 million subscribers. From the weekly chart, we can see the power of volume gaps we often talk about. Peloton broke sharply once it entered the light volume zone from $81 to $37. Now it has stabilized at a high volume zone and the point of control. This does set a potential base for the stock. (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) Peloton (PTON) chart, weekly The daily chart below shows we have had a bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) since the last earnings despite the share price continuing to slide. $23 remains support with first resistance at $46. This latest move is likely to calm down unless more takeover talk surfaces. If the price move does calm, then holding above $30 is key to keeping the bottom in place. Peloton (PTON) chart, daily  

S&P 500 bulls took the opportunity yesterday amid mild credit market support. Looks like more fireworks are to come – the risk-on turn is merely starting. Not only financials, but also tech welcomed higher yields – it seems that the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. We have quite a way to go still on the upside – 4,600s are waiting, and it remains to be seen how far in the 4,600 – 4,700 range stocks make it. Consumer discretionaries are outperforming staples, and energy isn‘t cratering – the brief commodities reprieve (don‘t look though at copper, which seems preparing a nice upside move, or crude oil‘s shallow dip) supports the stock market advance. Precious metals are rising strongly – both thanks to inflation expectations not budging much, and the expected copper upturn. Not even cryptos are plunging. The open S&P 500 and oil profits can keep on rising. Looks like the markets are slowly positioning for yet another hot inflation number tomorrow. How many times lately have there been expectations that high CPI data would sink stocks – but these rallied instead? Thursday is likely to turn out similarly – I‘m not looking for the stock market rally to top out tomorrow. The Mar FOMC is still quite a few weeks away, 50bp rate hike fears notwithstanding. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls have made the opening step, and look ready to extend gains. Even volume has returned a little, but importantly, sellers were nowhere to be seen – and that‘ll likely be the case today as well. Credit Markets HYG couldn‘t keep the opening gains, but junk bonds still did better than their quality counterparts. Anyway, the HYG weakness looks likely to be reversed (to some degree) today. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – and miners strength is confirming that. When inflation turns out more stubborn than generally appreciated, and bond yields don‘t catch up nearly enough, precious metals would like that. Love that. Crude Oil Now, crude oil bulls did pause, but the dip isn‘t likely to reach too far – I still wouldn‘t count on pullback towards $88 or lower really – this correction is more likely to be in time than in price. Copper Copper is clearly refusing to decline – its upswing looks to be a question of shortening time only. Likewise the commodities reprieve would be reversed shortly. The red metal‘s price action coupled with precious metals one, is very nice to see – for the fruits it would bring. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t weakening – they look to be pausing in the upswing only. How long would they need to consolidate before continuing the attempt to go higher? Summary S&P 500 bulls have a firm grip on higher prices – we‘re looking at another green day today. And if it‘s accompanied by the turning bonds, then all the better. Tech has risen, oil is a little down while sectoral breadth improves – the conditions are in place for S&P 500 to overcome 4,600. The risk-on rally hasn‘t yet run out of time, and the Mar FOMC is still far away. Upgraded rate hike prospects are being increasingly absorbed by the markets, and stocks don‘t look spooked at the moment. The bears‘ time would still come though, but let‘s first enjoy the gains our timely positioning is bringing. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency market decided to push and grow amid the rise of US stock indices. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, while the high-tech Nasdaq gained 2.1%. All this helped Bitcoin shrug off the profit-taking sentiment at the start of the day and close in a slight plus. On the intraday chart, you can see purchases at the close of the American session, which clearly demonstrate the interest of the institutionalists in this region. The benchmark cryptocurrency continues to be in demand after strengthening above the 50-day moving average, which confirms the breaking of the downtrend of the previous three months. The RSI indicator on the daily charts is now at 61, still far from the overbought zone, confirming that the market is still far from overheating.   For the third week in a row, institutional participants have been investing in crypto funds, according to CoinShare. Why did they start doing this before the January meeting of the Fed, when no one believed in the BTC reversal. Crypto-whales also bought bitcoin on the fall. According to Santiment, they have purchased 220,000 BTC in the last seven weeks. On Thursday, US inflation data will be released, which will shed light on how quickly the Fed will raise rates. If inflation accelerates, all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, may suffer significantly. Overall, Bitcoin added 0.5% on Wednesday, ending the day around $44,500. Ethereum rose 3.8%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also showed growing dynamics from 0.2% (Terra) to 5.2% ( XRP). The total capitalization of the crypto market grew by 2.2% over the day, to $2.14 trillion. Altcoins showed outpacing growth, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.4%, to 39.6%.

US inflation data for January is in the spotlight in the markets today. The annual growth rate is expected to break 40-year records, reaching 7.3% compared with 7.0% in December. Higher oil prices in recent weeks will reinforce the general price index. But more important in this case may be the core CPI, where prices are expected to rise by 0.5% m/m and 5.9% y/y. Investors and traders expect this report to determine the Fed's next move in mid-March. Rising inflation above expectations and new signs that the inflation trend is taking root could reinforce dollar purchases as markets will immediately put into the price a higher chance of a 50 point rate hike in March and set up a determination for further hikes. And that promises to be bad news for the markets. Signs that inflation is close to its peak and on a downward path promises to be great news for stock markets and shift the balance towards dollar selling. Interest in equities increases when investors see signs of a sustained turnaround in inflation as they stop fearing the Fed's sharply hawkish stance on suppressing price growth.

WTI crude oil has lost around 3% since the start of the week, bouncing back to $88.4 from $91.2 at the beginning of the week. The observed pullback looks like a technical correction to remove local overheating. This correction comes against a relatively bullish background. Yesterday's data marked a new drop in inventories, both commercial and strategic reserves. The Biden administration has said it may accelerate sales from reserves. Perhaps these comments were a formal excuse for profit-taking in the market. However, the start of these sales came with a two-month rally. The government's intention to sell off reserves may even have contributed to the rise in prices. The desire to bring prices down is hurting US production ramp-up plans. Aggressive support for alternative energy has made the hydrocarbon industry unattractive to banks. As a result, we are seeing a much slower production recovery than in the recovery periods of the last decade. The number of rigs in operation is rising methodically, but it seems that new wells are only marginally offsetting spent ones. Also, OPEC has repeatedly suggested that the industry's severe underinvestment during the pandemic makes it impossible to ramp up production quickly now. Despite a favourable price environment, the cartel has not picked up quotas in recent months. It is also worth mentioning that countries are not imposing new travel restrictions but are loosening them more and more, supporting energy demand. Also, commodity prices are supported by political pressure on Russia, which threatens gas supplies to Europe and further fuels price increases. Locally, oil remains vulnerable to a corrective pullback after a more than two-month rally with potential targets at $84.5 for WTI - a 23.6% pullback from the rally and the October peak area. A deeper retracement scenario suggests a pullback to $80.3. For Brent, the near-term target is $86-87, with a deeper retracement to $83.

AUDUSD breaks higher The Australian dollar climbs as traders wager on a hawkish shift from the Reserve Bank of Australia. On the daily chart, a break above the 30-day moving average suggests improved sentiment in the short term. The pair extended its gains after it broke the supply area around 0.7170. As sellers scramble to cover their bets, driving up bids, the rally is heading to the next resistance at 0.7210. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a temporary pullback with 0.7110 as the first support. EURGBP seeks support The euro consolidates gains amid mixed messages from the ECB. The pair found support at February 2020’s low at 0.8290, and a bullish MA cross on the daily chart suggests a potential turnaround. A break above the daily resistance at 0.8405 has put the single currency back on track. An overbought RSI led momentum traders to take profit. The current pullback is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.8405) which used to be a resistance. 0.8475 is the main hurdle for the reversal to gain traction. USOIL tests support WTI crude bounces higher after the EIA reported a sharp drop in US inventories. Price action is looking to consolidate its gains above the psychological level of 90.00. Sentiment remains upbeat though the bulls need to take a breather after the latest vertical ascent. 88.00 on the 20-day moving average is the immediate support. An oversold RSI may attract buying interest. A deeper retracement would test 85.00. A recovery above 92.30 could trigger momentum buying once again and resume the rally towards 95.00.

S&P 500 upswing continued amid increasing credit market support. Risk-on, finally – and commodities are on fire again, with precious metals awaiting their time in the spotlight. That‘s the big picture view as markets keep digesting the recently upgraded hawkish talk of the Fed. Or more precisely in my view, they‘re sniffing out the inevitability of the Fed having to make a U-turn later this year. Meanwhile, any temporary hint of lower Treasury yields – the reprieve is arriving – is eagerly embraced by the tech while value is disregarding that. As a result, S&P 500 market breadth is improving, and as stated yesterday, the positive seasonality of 2nd to 3rd week of Feb, is working. Today‘s CPI data would show inflation isn‘t relenting – even White House warned about hot year on year figure coming. Coupled with the tightening job market, the question is now what remains of the budding S&P 500 upswing and bond market reprieve. It‘s becoming increasingly clear that the Fed would have to really move, and that inflation is biting and not exactly sinking input costs. That‘s where we have the cost-push inflation I talked relentlessly over many quarters last year, and wage pressures joining at the hip. It‘s really about letting copper and oil profits keep growing now, while taking off S&P 500 long ones off the table. Done, and PMs are to join next. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 bulls had a great day, and need a solid close today against the poor inflation data. This isn‘t though likely to happen unless bonds hold up well during the regular session. Mission impossible, almost. Credit Markets HYG extended gains yesterday, and would need to defend them today. What remains of the risk-on posture, is key to determining the stock market rally longevity vs. waning power. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals are firmly on another upleg – I‘m not looking for setbacks during the opening selling pressure to last. The direction is firmly up. Crude Oil Crude oil is still pausing, but at the same time the bulls are readying a response. I‘m looking for continued trading in the recent range, followed by a break higher. Copper Copper is finally on the move, and the high volume speaks plenty about the buying pressure. I‘m looking for dips to be bought – I‘m not expecting a stampede of the bears taking advantage of a „shorting opportunity“. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos aren‘t plunging, but the test of the bullish resolve is arriving today – let‘s see what kind of reversal it turns into. The volume looks solid, so I count on more than a daily setback as a minimum. Summary S&P 500 meets unpleasantly high inflation, which is forcing the hand of the Fed. Stocks are going to have a hard time recovering, and the bullish window of opportunity may be drastically shortened. Good to have taken profits off the table automatically through the trailing stop-loss – commodities would be more resilient. That‘s where real gains are – in real assets, as inflation is returning to the spotlight. Rightfully so as the Fed is desperately behind the curve, and precious metals need to fully get that. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

El Salvador plans to issue its first Bitcoin bond between March 15 and March 20, 2022. The corporate adoption of Bitcoin went parabolic since the addition of BTC to MicroStrategy’s balance sheet. Amidst rising adoption from institutions, the Salvadoran Finance minister expects the offering to be oversubscribed by an additional $500 million. Analysts at FSInsight predict Bitcoin price could hit $222,000 before the end of 2022. El Salvador has announced the launch of its Bitcoin bond next month. Salvadorans are riding the wave of institutional Bitcoin adoption, fueling a bullish outlook among investors. Bitcoin price rally fueled by El Salvador’s bond issuance and institutional investment El Salvador plans on issuing its first Bitcoin bond in March 2022. The Salvadoran Finance Minister, Alejandro Zelaya told a local news show that the government plans to issue the Bitcoin bond between March 15 and March 20. Zelaya was quoted as saying: If we really want to build this country, we have to invest in it like this. The Salvadoran Bitcoin Bond will pay investors 6.5% per annum. $500 million raised from the bond issuance will be used for Bitcoin mining and developing renewable energy from volcanoes, another $500 million for buying more Bitcoin. El Salvador’s government plans to issue $1 billion for the first bond and expects it to be oversubscribed by an additional $500 million. The minimum purchase is $100, and investors can directly buy without involving a broker. The Bitcoin bond would be issued on Blockstream’s Liquid Network sidechain. Salvador’s move to launch a Bitcoin bond is timed in accordance with the rising corporate adoption of the asset. Firms are keen on adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet; recent Wells Fargo and JP Morgan reports have affirmed a bullish outlook on BTC price. Analysts at FSInsights recently evaluated the Bitcoin price trend and set a target of $222,000 for the end of 2022. FXStreet analysts believe that Bitcoin price could stumble on track to $50,000.

  Lagarde opened the door to an interest rate hike, which gave the European Central Bank a hawkish demeanor. Does it also imply more bullish gold? The ECB has awoken from its ultra-dovish lethargy. In December 2021, the central bank of the Eurozone announced that its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program would end in March 2022. Although this won’t also mean the end of quantitative easing as the ECB continues to buy assets under the APP program, the central bank will be scaling down the pace of purchases this year. Christine Lagarde, the ECB’s President, admitted it during her press conference held last week. She said: “We will stop the Pandemic Emergency Programme net asset purchases in March and then we will look at the net asset purchases under the APP.” She also left the door open for the interest rates to be raised. Of course, Lagarde did not directly signal the rate hikes. Instead, she pointed out the upside risk of inflation and acknowledged that the macroeconomic conditions have changed: We are going to use all instruments, all optionalities in order to respond to the situation – but the situation has indeed changed. You will have noticed that in the monetary policy statement that I just read, we do refer to the upside risk to inflation in our projection. So the situation having changed, we need to continue to monitor it very carefully. We need to assess the situation on the basis of the data, and then we will have to take a judgement. What’s more, Lagarde didn’t repeat her December phrase that raising interest rates in 2022 is “very unlikely”. When asked about that, she replied: as I said, I don’t make pledges without conditionalities and I did make those statements at our last press conference on the basis of the assessment, on the basis of the data that we had. It was, as all pledges of that nature, conditional. So what I am saying here now is that come March, when we have additional data, when we’ve been able to integrate in our analytical work the numbers that we have received in the last few days, we will be in a position to make a thorough assessment again on the basis of data. I cannot prejudge what that will be, but we are only a few weeks away from the closing time at which we provide the analytical work, prepare the projections for the Governing Council, and then come with some recommendations and make our decisions. It sounds very innocent, but it’s worth remembering that Lagarde is probably the most dovish central banker in the world (let’s exclude Turkish central bankers who cut interest rates amid high inflation, but they are under political pressure from Erdogan). After all, global monetary policy is tightening. For example, last week, the Bank of England hiked its main policy rate by 25 basis points and started quantitative tightening. Even the Fed will probably end quantitative easing and start raising the federal funds rate in March. In such a company, the ECB seems to be a reckless laggard. Hence, even very shy comments mean something in the case of this central bank. The markets were so impressed that they started to price in 50 basis points of rate hikes this year, probably in an exaggerated reaction.   Implications for Gold What does the latest ECB monetary policy meeting mean for the gold market? Well, maybe it wasn’t an outright revolution, but the ECB is slowly reducing its massive monetary stimulus. Although the euro area does not face the inflationary pressure of the same kind as the US, with inflation that soared to 5% in December and to 5.1% in January (according to the initial estimate), the ECB simply has no choice. As the chart below shows, inflation in the Eurozone is the highest in the whole history of euro. Additionally, in the last quarter of 2021, the GDP of the euro area finally reached its pre-pandemic level, two quarters later than in the case of the US. Europe is back in the game. The economic recovery strengthens the hawkish camp within the ECB. All of this is fundamentally bullish for gold prices. To be clear, don’t expect that Christine Lagarde will turn into Paul Volcker and hike interest rates in a rush. Given the structural problems of the euro area, the ECB will lag behind the Fed and remain relatively more dovish. However, German bond yields have recently risen, and there is still room for further increases. If the market interest rates go up more in Europe than across the pond, which is likely given the financial tightening that has already occurred in the US, the spread between American and German interest rates could narrow further (see the chart below). The narrowing divergence between monetary policies and interest rates in the US and in the Eurozone should strengthen the euro against the greenback – and it should be supportive of gold. As the chart above shows, when the spread was widening in 2012-2018, gold was in the bear market. The yellow metal started its rally at the end of 2018, just around the peak of the spread. On the other hand, if the divergence intensifies, gold will suffer. Given that Powell is expected to hike rates as soon as March, while Lagarde may only start thinking about the tightening cycle, we may have to wait a while for the spread to peak. One thing is certain: it can get hot in March! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

  The market was up, but mining stocks chose to reverse. Meanwhile, gold sent a clear signal to investors. So, when everyone buys, what happens? The gold mining stocks and silver mining stocks have reversed, even though gold didn’t. The top for the former is likely in. Most developments regarding the precious metals and their immediate surroundings were a continuation of what we had seen in the previous days, but one thing was different. That one thing is particularly informative. It has trading implications, too. Without further ado, let’s jump into mining stocks. Gold miners fell. Even though they declined by just $0.06, it was profound. The miners were following gold higher during the early part of yesterday’s (Feb. 9) session, but they lost strength close to the middle thereof and were back down before the closing bell. If the gold price reversed and then declined during the day, that would have been normal. However, gold stayed up. It’s fairer to compare GDX to GLD than to compare GDX to gold continuous futures contracts, as the former have the same closing hours, so let’s take a look at what GLD did yesterday. There was no reversal. GLD simply stopped at its declining medium-term resistance line. Also, the general stock market was up yesterday. Consequently, gold mining stocks had no good reason to decline. In fact, they “should have” rallied. They didn’t – they reversed instead. This tells us that the buying power has either dried up or is drying up. When everyone who wanted to get into the market is already in it, the price can do only one thing (regardless of bullish factors) – fall. Those who are already in can then sell. Monitoring the markets for this kind of cross-sector performance is one of the more important gold trading tips. Look, I’m not saying that declines now are “guaranteed”. There are no guarantees in the markets. There might be buyers that haven’t considered mining stocks that would now enter the market, but history tells us that this is unlikely. Instead, declines are very likely to follow. Let’s focus on the GLD ETF chart one more time. As I wrote earlier, it approached its declining medium-term resistance line. Any small breakout here is likely to be invalidated just like what we saw previously in November 2021 and January 2022. This time, however, the volume is low, so gold might not have enough strength for a breakout, and it could decline right away. Junior mining stocks provide us with a perfect confirmation of the bearish narrative. I emphasized before that juniors hadn’t moved above their 50-day moving average, and that they stayed below their rising blue resistance line. Consequently – I wrote – the downtrend in them remained clearly intact. Yesterday’s reversal served as a perfect confirmation of the above. The previous breakdowns were verified in one of the most classic ways. The silver price has been quite strong recently, which is also something that we see close to the local tops. The reversals in mining stocks, the situation in gold, AND the situation in the USD Index together paint a very bearish picture for the precious metals market in the short and medium term. By “the situation in the USD Index”, I’m referring to the fact that it’s after its early-month reversal and right above its rising medium-term support line that was not successfully broken. Since the USD Index remains above its rising medium-term support line, the trend remains up. Therefore, higher – not lower – USD Index values are to be expected. All in all, it seems that gold, silver, and mining stocks are going to decline in the coming weeks (quite possibly days) and that we won’t have to wait too long for the next big decline to start. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The US inflation report noted higher-than-expected price rises, triggering a boost to the dollar and a pullback in US major index futures. The price index for January rose 0.6% to an annual rate of 7.5%. The report dashed hopes that the monthly price increase was slowing, as analysts expected a slowdown to 0.4% after December's 0.5% jump. The core index added another 0.6% last month, accelerating to 6.0% y/y, the highest level since August 1982. Thus far, there are few signs of a slowdown in inflation which requires the Fed to take active steps to tighten monetary policy. As might be expected, the stronger-than-expected rise in prices caused a sell-off in US equity futures, with the Nasdaq100 losing 2% and the S&P500 1.3%. The dollar index immediately gained 0.4%. For the dollar, the current inflation report could be the starting point for a new upward momentum as it virtually unleashes the Fed for a high-profile first move with a key rate hike of 50 points in five weeks.

US inflation have exceeded expectations on all measures. Alongside a jump in jobs, America's economy is on fire and the Fed is set to act. The dollar has further room to rise, at least until Fed officials open their mouths. A 6% handle on annual price rises – another milestone has been reached, this time on core inflation. Data for the first month of 2022 is hot out of the oven – and it is steaming hot. While prices of used cars and shelter seemed to have slowed down, there are few silver linings to find. On a monthly basis, both headline and Core CPI is up 0.6%, while overall annual price rises is at 7.5%, above expectations – and even implying an 8% handle next month. It is essential to note that this is no longer limited to energy or supply-chain issues, but rather broad price rises. It is accompanied by a job market that is on fire, as jobless claims for the week ending On February 4 show – a drop from 238,000 to 223,000. That comes on top of January's jobs report. Only six days ago, the Nonfarm Payrolls report came out with an increase of 467,000 positions, accompanied by upward revisions. Wages also jumped according to that NFP, adding to price pressures. Both figures are critical to the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate of full employment and price stability. The data more than cement a March rate hike and perhaps at a scale of 0.50% instead of 0.25%, which is the standard measure. Moreover, the Fed could raise interest rates four times by July – contrary to its projections of hiking only three times throughout the whole of 2022. That means more pressure on the dollar. The greenback has benefited from a knee-jerk reaction to the figures, but it has even more room to rise as analysts pore over the data. What could halt the greenback? Only Fed officials can cool things down, by playing down the option of raising rates by 50bp in March. That is what happened last week when hawks such as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and others calmed markets. On a relative basis, some currencies could do better than others, if central bankers talk about action to mitigate inflation. The European Central Bank's hawkish twist helped the euro recover against the dollar. After these figures, ECB hawks face an uphill battle. Overall, King Dollar reigns supreme.

On Thursday, the Russian ruble rolled back to 74.50, and on Friday morning, it rewrote these local lows to recover to the levels from which it started the year, winning back the failure in geopolitics. However, the strengthening of the ruble took place not so much on political de-escalation but on the actions of the Bank of Russia. And today, we are waiting for new actions that can both strengthen the positions of the Russian currency and return the ruble to the path of decline. We are inclined to believe that the CBR will remain on the side of the ruble. When making a decision on the key rate, the CBR will weigh the actual and expected inflation rates both in Russia and in the world, and there is little reason to relax. The latest estimates of inflation in Russia have shown that the annual rate of price growth has accelerated again, requiring a further tightening of the screws. Under these conditions, the Bank of Russia is likely to raise the rate by 100 points - the second time in a row. Previously, the CBR maintained parity between the rate and the annual inflation rate, but now it makes sense to step up pressure to suppress inflation. At the same time, we should be prepared to hear comments that such a sharp increase may not be required in the future. Based on inflationary trends, the key rate could reach its 10% ceiling for this tightening cycle before the end of March and then hold at this level for another year. Another factor is the volatility of the ruble and geopolitics. In January, the CBR decided to suspend purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance in order to reduce pressure on the ruble in the Russian financial market. The biggest risk for the ruble is that the CBR will announce today that it is returning to buying foreign currency. Such a move could hit the ruble hard. However, we believe that it would be logical for the CBR to extend the pause in purchases at least until the end of the exercises in Belarus, that is, until the end of February. The strengthening of the ruble, as a side effect of expensive oil and the suspension of foreign currency purchases, can additionally work to slow down import inflation and consumer inflation in general. If we are right, then the ruble may remain in an uptrend until the end of February, rushing to the 71 area by the end of the month. However, it is still difficult to expect a steady growth of the Russian currency to the area below 70.

The UK economy added 1% in the fourth quarter last year and is 6.5% higher than a year ago. The annual growth rate is declining as the low base effect fades away. In December, industrial production added 0.3% and moved into growth territory compared to the same month a year earlier. These are signs that the Bank of England's interest rate hike cycle has met the UK economy in pretty good shape. The British pound has been gaining support in the last two days on the declines in the area of 1.35 GBPUSD despite the impressive upward thrust of the dollar. This dynamic is explained by the fact that the Bank of England has as much potential to tighten policy. Locally the pound looks like a decent competitor to the dollar. The markets are pricing in that the Bank of England may raise the rate by 50 points at one of the following meetings, keeping the policy tightening gap with the Fed. And this is good news for the pound, which could also help reduce inflationary pressures.

XRP and Solana have both lost around 6% over the past 24 hours, falling amid a general reduction in risk traction in the markets and the two largest cryptocurrencies. Despite the apparent depth of the pullback, XRP remains 32% above levels from a week earlier, and the current retreat is well within Fibonacci technical correction from the rally of the past eight days. A drop below $0.78 would signal a deeper correction and open a quick path to $0.75. If all of February's gains are entirely nullified in the coming week and quotes pull back to below $0.60, it would be safe to speak of a new depressed period with a long-term downside potential of 50% to $0.3. The technical picture in Solana and Polkadot is worse, as a shadow hangs over them. The rise from January 28th to February 7th looked like a technical rebound after being oversold since November. But this growth momentum is quickly fading. We can say for this coin that without positivity for the overall market, it will continue to lose ground faster than BTC and ETH.

Cryptocurrencies were under the pressure of strong data on inflation in the United States on Thursday, which has updated 40-year highs. Such values can force the Fed to raise interest rates faster, which is negative for all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin showed high volatility during trading, updating early January highs above $45,800 under the influence of a weakening dollar. However, towards the end of the day, the first cryptocurrency began to decline along with stock indices: the S&P500 lost 1.8%, the high-tech Nasdaq fell 2.1%. The crypto-currency index of fear and greed for the second day is exactly in the middle of the scale, at around 50 (neutral). However, now the stock markets are having an increased impact on the dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum, in which the prospects for monetary policy are being reassessed. The corresponding index is now in the fear territory, near the 37 mark. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being bought back on dips towards the 50-day average, which keeps the picture bullish. However, in the event of a prolonged sale of shares, the first cryptocurrency will not hold and risks pulling the entire market with it. Fitch has downgraded El Salvador due to its acceptance of bitcoin as legal tender. In March, the country will issue the first $1 billion bitcoin bonds. There is interesting news from America as well. The largest investment company BlackRock is going to launch a cryptocurrency trading service. Bank Of America refuses to recognize Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, pointing to the strengthening of the correlation between BTC and the S&P500 stock index. And at JPMorgan, they currently consider the “fair” quote for bitcoin to be $38,000. In Russia, the government has completed the drafting of a bill on the circulation of digital currencies. The Ministry of Finance proposed establishing a transitional period for individuals before introducing a tax on income from crypto assets. Overall, Bitcoin lost 1.3% on Thursday, ending the day around $44,100. Ethereum fell 4.3%, while other top ten altcoins declined from 0.5% (Avalanche) to 6.2% (Solana and Polkadot). The total capitalization of the crypto market sank by 2.8% over the day, to $2.08 trillion. Altcoins showed a leading decline, which led to an increase in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.5%, to 40.1%

USDJPY to test major resistance The US dollar surged after consumer prices hit a 40-year high. Higher lows and then a close above the recent peak at 115.65 is an indication of strong bullish pressure. This breakout has propelled the greenback to January’s high at 116.35. Its breach could trigger a runaway rally and resume the uptrend in the medium term. An overbought RSI on the hourly chart may briefly restrain the bullish fever. 115.30 is the closest support and the bulls may see a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. XAGUSD seeks support Bullions fell back after US Treasury yields soared over hot US inflation data. The psychological level of 22.00 has proven to be a solid demand area. A break above 23.00 has forced sellers to cover, paving the way for an upward extension. 24.00 from a previous rectangle consolidation is the next resistance. A bullish breakout would bring silver back to this year’s high at 24.70. On the downside, the resistance-turned-support at 22.80 could see buying interest in case of a retracement. US 100 hits resistance The Nasdaq 100 struggles as record-high US inflation exacerbates rate hike concerns. The previous rebound has eased selling pressure but hit resistance under 15350. The subsequent pullback bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (14400), which suggests buyers’ strong interest in keeping the index afloat. Sentiment is still a tad cautious unless the bulls clear the said hurdle. Then the psychological level of 16000 could be within reach. 14500 is a key support in case of an extended consolidation.

  Stocks retraced their Wednesday’s advance yesterday. Was this a downward reversal, or just a correction within an uptrend? The S&P 500 index lost 1.81% on Thursday, Feb. 10 after gaining 1.5% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to higher-than-expected inflation number release. Investors fear that the rising inflation will lead to a faster tightening by the Fed. On Wednesday the index got close to its previous Wednesday’s local high of 4,595.31, and yesterday it fell to the 4,500 level (the daily low was at 4,484.31). This morning the market will likely open 0.2% higher after an overnight decline. We may see some more short-term uncertainty. For now, it looks like a flat correction or a consolidation within an uptrend from the Jan. 24 local low of 4,222.62. The nearest important resistance level remains at 4,550-4,600. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,450-4,500. The S&P 500 index is close to the previous Friday’s daily closing price, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract Trades Along the 4,500 Level Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It broke above the short-term downward trend line in late January before rallying up to around the 4,600 level. Since then, it has been fluctuating along the 4,500 level. The market remains at the resistance level of its previous local lows, but there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. So in our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index will likely extend its almost two-week long consolidation after rallying from the mentioned late January local low. So far, it looks like a consolidation within an uptrend. The quarterly earnings season is mostly over now, and there is still an uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely open slightly higher this morning and we may see more fluctuations along the 4,500 level. In our opinion, no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 upswing was rejected – the intraday comeback didn‘t succeed. Risk-off posture won the day, and the dust is settling. Day 4-5 of the rally‘s window of opportunity that I talked on Monday, is proving as a milestone. Hot CPI data has increased the bets on Mar 50bp rate hike to a virtual certainty, and asset prices didn‘t like that. Not just stocks across the board, but commodities likewise (to a modest degree only) gave up intraday gains, turning a little red. Cryptos too ended down – it had been a good decision to cash in solid open long profits in S&P 500, oil and copper. Fresh portfolio highs reached over this 12+ months period (details on my homepage): What‘s the game plan for today? As the dollar closed flat while yields rose, I‘m not ruling out a reflexive intraday rebound attempt – after all, the bears should rule in the 2nd half of Feb most clearly. As time passes, the rips would be sold into unless bonds and tech can catch a solid bid. With focus on inflation, that‘s unlikely. Medium-term S&P 500 bias continues being short while commodity dips are to be cautiously bought. Crude oil looks to need to spend a bit more time around $90 while copper defending the low $4.50 is equally important. While silver didn‘t rise by nearly as much as the red metal did, it is down approximately as much in today‘s premarket – the white metal would recover on a less headline heavy day. Remember that PMs are trading sideways to up, with decreasing sensitivity to rising 10-year yield, and have done historically well when rate hikes finally start. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 momentum has sharply shifted to the downside, and today‘s recovery attempts are likely to be sold into. I‘m keeping a keen eye on bonds, tech and risk-on in general – not expecting miracles. Credit Markets HYG keeps showing the way, resolutely down as of yesterday. With rising yields not propelling even financials, the bears have returned a few days earlier than they could – in a show of strength. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners issued a warning to gold and silver – yesterday brought a classic short-term top sign. I‘m though not ascribing great significance to it, for it isnt‘a turning point. Gold would be relatively unmoved while silver recovers however deep setback it suffers today. Crude Oil Crude oil appears to need more time to base – while the upside is being rejected for now, the selling attempts aren‘t materializing at all. Higher volume adds to short-term indecision, but strong (long) hands are to win. Copper Copper is running into selling pressure, and looks in need of consolidation in order to overcome $4.60. The red metal remains true to its reputation for volatility. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are taking their time, and the bulls need to act. Given that volume isn‘t disappearing, the bears have a short-term advantage. Summary S&P 500 looks to be getting under pressure soon again, today. There is no support from bonds, unless these stage an intraday risk-on reversal. The momentum is with the sellers, and rips are likely to be sold as markets digest yet more hawkish Fed action slated for March. Digest and slated are the key words – the Fed‘s hand is being forced here. Commodities and precious metals are likely to do best in what‘s coming – the 5-10 day window of bullish S&P 500 price action, is slowly closing down. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  In line with bearish bets, miners have thrown a match. Gold, however, doesn’t want to leave the ring without a fight. How long will it stay high? While gold remains relatively firm despite stock market turbulence, rising real yields, and bearish technical indicators, even a confluence of headwinds hasn’t been able to knock the yellow metal off its lofty perch. However, mining stocks haven’t been so lucky. With my short position in the GDXJ ETF offering a great risk-reward proposition, the junior gold miners’ underperformance has played out exactly as I expected. Moreover, with major spikes in volume preceding predictable sell-offs (follow the vertical dashed lines below), I’ve warned on several occasions that the GDX ETF is prone to tipping its hand – we saw this volume spike in January, which was the 2022 top (as of today). In addition, with mining investors’ power drying up by the day, the medium-term looks equally unkind. Please see below: On Wednesday, gold miners fell. Even though they declined by just $0.06, it was profound. The miners were following gold higher during the early part of Wednesday’s (Feb. 9) session, but they lost strength close to the middle thereof and were back down before the closing bell. If the gold price reversed and then declined during the day, that would have been normal. However, gold stayed up. This tells us that the buying power has either dried up or is drying up. When everyone who wanted to get into the market is already in it, the price can do only one thing (regardless of bullish factors) – fall. Those who are already in can then sell. Monitoring the markets for this kind of cross-sector performance is one of the more important gold trading tips. Look, I’m not saying that declines now are “guaranteed”. There are no guarantees in the markets. There might be buyers that haven’t considered mining stocks that would now enter the market, but history tells us that this is unlikely. Instead, declines are very likely to follow. Yesterday’s big daily decline confirmed my above comments. Gold miners declined much more than gold did, and they did so at above-average volume. The latter indicates that “down” is the true direction in which the precious metals market is heading. To that point, the HUI Index provides clues from a longer-term perspective. When we analyze the weekly chart, it highlights investors’ anxiety. For example, after hitting an intraweek high of roughly 260, the HUI Index ended the Feb. 10 session at roughly 250 – just 3.99 up from last Friday – that’s an intraweek reversal. Furthermore, with the index still in a medium-term downtrend, shades of 2013 still profoundly bearish, and sharp declines often preceded by broad head and shoulders patterns (marked with green), there are several negatives confronting the HUI Index. As such, a sharp drawdown will likely materialize sooner rather than later. Please see below: Finally, the GDXJ ETF is the gift that keeps on giving. For example, with lower highs and lower lows being part of the junior miners’ roughly one-and-a-half-year journey, false breakouts have confused many investors. However, while I’ve been warning about the weakness for some time, more downside is likely on the horizon. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 10: I emphasized before that juniors hadn’t moved above their 50-day moving average, and that they stayed below their rising blue resistance line. Consequently – I wrote – the downtrend in them remained clearly intact. Yesterday’s reversal served as a perfect confirmation of the above. The previous breakdowns were verified in one of the most classic ways. The silver price has been quite strong recently, which is also something that we see close to the local tops. The reversals in mining stocks, the situation in gold, outperformance of silver, AND the situation in the USD Index (the medium-term support held) together paint a very bearish picture for the precious metals market in the short and medium term. All in all, if the weakness continues, I expect the GDXJ ETF to challenge the $32 to $34 range. However, please note that this is my expectation for a short-term bottom. While the GDXJ ETF may record a corrective upswing at this level, the downtrend should continue thereafter, and the junior miners should fall further over the medium term. In conclusion, gold showcased its steady hand throughout the recent volatility. However, mining stocks have cracked under the pressure. With the latter’s underperformance often a bearish omen for the former, the yellow metal’s mettle may be tested over the medium term. As such, while the long-term outlooks for gold, silver, and mining stocks remain profoundly bullish, a final climax will likely unfold before their secular uptrends continue. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Given last week’s strong price action and gold’s intraday resilience, it is now very likely that gold indeed is breaking out of the multi-month consolidation triangle. Actually, this large and symmetrical triangle had been building for more than a year, at least. However, the correction in gold began on August 7th, 2020. Now it looks like the breakout is in process. Typically, traders tend to aggressively buy into such a breakout. And given Friday’s sharp spike higher, it actually looks exactly like this. Hence, expect more volatility and a sharp move higher as the direction of gold’s next move has become more obvious. Please note, that it is rather challenging to draw and determine the correct triangle, because gold has been in a tricky sideways market for such a long time and many trend-lines have been invalidated during this messy period. But at the latest, a weekly close above US$1,875 should confirm the breakout. This should unleash enough energy to push gold prices quickly towards US$1,900 and even US$1,950 within a few weeks. Obviously, that would fit very well with gold’s seasonal cycle, which is bullish until the end of February at least, but often saw gold rallying into mid of march, too. Consumer sentiment at 10-year low but Fed wants to hike and taper From a fundamental perspective, it leaves us speechless how the Fed can go on a hiking rampage while consumer sentiment is at a 10-year low. While the confidence in governments worldwide is collapsing and inflation is spiking higher, raising rates will have zero impact upon supply shortages. Instead, it will make these shortages only worse and bankrupt more companies in the supply chain. Also, it will bankrupt emerging markets, as the strong dollar has already been putting so much pressure on dollar indebted nations and creditors. It’s all a big mess, and we believe there is no way out. That’s why the warmongering industrial and military complex of the US is desperately trying to push Russia into an attack on Ukraine! Without showing any proof, the Biden administration and their mouthpiece “the mainstream media” have been pushing people’s focus on fears that Russia will soon invade Ukraine. Another noteworthy fundamental observation: Gold’s correction began in earnest when Pfizer & Biontech announced their vaccine on November 9th, 2020. In a first reaction, gold immediately sold off $150 on that same day. Many more similar large red daily candles followed over the last 16 months, destroying the confidence of the gold bugs and shifting millions of dollars to the short sellers. Now that more and more very serious questions about the vaccines are debated in the news, it would make sense for gold to run back to US$1,950. This was the level where gold was trading back on November 9th, 2020. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the weekly chart, gold has been slowly but surely progressing into the apex of the triangle over the last few months. It now looks like Gold is breaking out with vengeance. Theoretically, the resistance zone between US$1,850 and US$1,875 could still stop the bullish train. The weekly Bollinger Bands (US$1,864) sits right in this zone and should at least challenge the bulls for some days. However, the weekly stochastic has just given a new buy signal. On top, the oscillator has been making higher lows since March 2021. A measured move out of this triangle could take gold to around US$1,950 to US$1.975 until spring. The monthly Bollinger Band ($1,975) could become the logical target! Overall, the weekly chart is becoming more and more bullish, suggesting that gold can at least move around US$80 to US$100 higher. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 13th, 2022. On the daily chart, gold has been struggling with the upper triangle resistance in November and January. Each time, the bears managed to push back. Now it looks like the bulls are finally successful. The fierce and sharp pullback two and half weeks ago had created a nice oversold setup which became the launching pad for the ongoing attack. Since then, the slow stochastic has been nicely turning around. This buy signal is still active and has not yet reached the overbought zone. Thanks to Friday’s big green candle, the bulls are now bending the upper Bollinger Band (US$1,858) to the upside. To conclude, the daily chart is bullish, and gold should have more upside. If the bulls continue their attack, we could see prices directly exploding for four to seven days. More likely would be a consolidation. Only with prices below US$1,835 the breakout would have failed. In that rather unlikely case, the picture could quickly turn ugly again. Conclusion: Gold is breaking out! In mid of December, gold made an important low around US$1,752. Back then, most gold bugs had enough and did throw in the towel after a very difficult and messy 16-month correction. Gold, silver and the mining stock had become the most hated asset. But actually, all that gold might have been doing was building an epic base and a launch pad to start the next leg higher within its bull market. Overall, we expect that Gold is breaking out after a short consolidation! The successful breakout above resistance between US$1,850 and US$1,875 should happen within the next few days or weeks. This should then lead to higher prices and gold will likely run towards US$1,950, at least. However, we are not sure yet whether this will also bring an attack towards the round number resistance at US$2,000. Given the fact, that gold usually starts to struggle somewhere in spring, the ongoing rally could still be just a counter-trend move within the larger ongoing consolidation/correction. Hence, we are short-term very bullish, mid-term neutral and long-term very bullish for gold. Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Florian Grummes|February 13th, 2022|Tags: Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, precious metals, Reyna Gold, US-Dollar About the Author: Florian Grummes Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

Bitcoin strengthened in the first half of the week and the middle, having managed to test the highs of early January above $45,800. The situation changed on Thursday after the release of US inflation data, which updated the maximum levels for 40 years, and US stock indices fell. This had a negative impact, among other things, on cryptocurrencies, which showed a significant correlation with other risky assets. Late last week, the Fed announced an unscheduled meeting to be held today, February 14th. As a result of the meeting, the regulator may well raise rates without waiting til March. Moreover, even a double increase is possible, by 0.50%. Tightening monetary policy can hit all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. On February 12th, the bitcoin network hashrate updated all-time highs above 248 EH/s. The indicator indicates the strengthening of the position of the blockchain and the development of its infrastructure. Kathy Wood, head of investment company ARK Invest, actively sold shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust backed by bitcoin throughout February. Note that these securities were purchased in July last year, at the time of the BTC reversal upwards. The Central Bank of Hungary has now called on EU countries to ban cryptocurrency trading and mining. The Bank of Russia announced its desire to reduce the involvement of citizens in the crypto market. For example, the Ministry of Finance proposed limiting the list of cryptocurrencies traded in Russia. In general, Bitcoin rose by 1.6% over the past week, ending it at around $42,200. Ethereum lost 5.1%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also mostly sank: from 4.3% (Binance Coin) to 19% (Solana) for a week. The exception was the XRP token, which showed a 20% increase. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, decreased by 1.5% over the week to $1.96 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index rose by 1% to 40.7% due to the weakening of altcoins.

USDCHF to test resistance The US dollar rises as traders seek safe haven amid tensions in Ukraine. The pair is grinding up along a rising trendline from support at 0.9180. A series of higher lows suggests strong buying interest. A break above the intermediate resistance at 0.9275 may boost buyers’ confidence further. 0.9310 is the next hurdle and its breach would bring the greenback to the double top (0.9370) on the daily chart. On the downside, the trendline is the closest support, and then 0.9180 is a critical level to keep the short-term rally intact. GBPJPY tests demand zone The pound may find support from Britain’s upbeat GDP in Q4. A break above January’s high at 157.70 suggests that the bulls have reclaimed control of price action. The next challenging task is to push above last October’s peak at 158.20. This would resume the uptrend in the medium term. In the meantime, a combination of profit-taking and fresh selling is driving the price towards 155.20. Sentiment would remain steady as long as the sterling met bidders in this demand area. US 30 seeks support The Dow Jones 30 struggled as white-hot US inflation fanned fears of aggressive rate hikes. Nonetheless, a break above the 30-day moving average on the daily chart indicates improved market sentiment. An overbought RSI prompted momentum traders to exit. A fall below 34820 would suggest lingering hesitation among market participants and shake out weak hands. The bulls may see a pullback towards 34500 as a buying opportunity. The rebound may only resume if the price lifts offers around 35400.

It is widely believed that in March-April 2020, retail investors actively bought stock market declines while institutional investors sold. The market's rapid reversal to growth has formed a reflex for retail investors to buy stocks on downturns. However, we note a significant change in market fundamentals. With the onset of the pandemic, central banks were on the side of retail investors, dramatically easing monetary conditions, and governments handed out money and benefits but prohibited going out and spending money. It is correct to say that investors then did not fight institutions but followed a "don't fight the Central Bank" strategy. With the unprecedented injections into the financial system, the pendulum of the markets swung in the upward direction. But in recent weeks, the Fed, having received a surprise in the form of strong employment and rising wages and yesterday with accelerating inflation, must now move to the side of equity and bond sellers. Short-term traders should keep a close eye on how monetary policy expectations change. A month ago, the assumptions of 7 Fed rate hikes in 2022 or a 50-point step in March looked marginal. Yesterday the latter option was almost entirely in the price of rate futures. There is talk of a possible start of active selling from the Fed's balance sheet, and there is also talk of an extraordinary rate hike, possibly even today. Markets can hardly sustain this pace of tightening expectations for long. But while this is happening, it won't be a wise strategy to bet against the dollar and for the stock market.

The strengthening of the ruble was interrupted on Friday as geopolitical factors again came to the forefront, pushing aside the fundamental and long-term factors that supported the ruble. The Bank of Russia did everything in its power to support the Russian currency: the rate was raised by 100 points to 9.5%, investors were warned of further increases, and the pause in foreign currency purchases for the Finance Ministry was extended. Nevertheless, before the weekend, investors again preferred to reduce the risks of owning Russian assets against the background of the fact that several Foreign Ministries of different countries called on their citizens to leave Ukraine. For the markets, this is a signal that a new round of geopolitical tensions and the negotiations in the outgoing week did not bring the long-awaited agreement. Against the backdrop of news about geopolitics, the RTS index lost more than 4.6%, and the Moscow Exchange fell by 3%. It seems that the Russian market will have to experience the convulsions of geopolitics more than once for at least another week. Fixing the ruble above 76.40 per dollar and 86.60 per euro will mean that the period of corrective rollback of the ruble has come to an end, and we need to prepare for a new wave of growth. But this is from the standpoint of technical analysis. In practice, geopolitics now rules the roost, where détente can be as fast as escalation. At the same time, fundamental factors (high rates of the Central Bank, expensive oil, and a pause in foreign currency purchases) continue to play on the side of the ruble. These factors promise to return the ruble to the path of growth very quickly, repeating the dynamics of the previous two weeks. If we are right, then the ruble may remain in an upward trend until the end of February, rushing to the area of 71 per dollar and 83 per euro by the end of the month.

Dogecoin price action is under pressure as global markets are nervous about a possible escalation between Ukraine and Russia. DOGE looks set to break the low from the previous week and dip towards $0.1357 Expect once DOGE price reaches that level to see a rally into the weekend that could hold 40% gains. Dogecoin (DOGE) is set for a solid rally but first needs to face the most vital forces with global markets pressing on all assets with a mood of risk-off, as today and tomorrow could be the tipping point in the escalation towards a war between Russia and Ukraine. As tailwinds are just too big a force to face, DOGE will dip further towards solid support at $0.1357. Once bulls enter, expect a big rally that could swing up to 40% towards $0.19. Time for the bulls to stake a step back and look at the bigger picture Dogecoin is under pressure as the overall cryptocurrency space joins global markets rattled by a crucial moment in the Russia-Ukraine development. As Russian army exercises near the Ukrainian border are set to end tomorrow, the crucial moment for a possible invasion to take place before then. This is putting markets on edge with risk-off across the board and EU equities down more than 3%. This risk sentiment is weighing on DOGE price action with the low of last week being tested, and bears using the entry-level from Sunday at $0.1594 where the 55-day Simple Moving Average and the pivotal historical level delivered a firm rejection to the upside. With that, expect this downtrend to continue today and dip towards $0.1357, which already proved its support at the end of January. Once there, expect bulls to jump on the opportunity and lead a rally that could jump as much as 40% towards $0.19 once the geopolitical rhetoric dies down and cools off. DOGE/USD daily chart Should Russia engage in war with Ukraine and invade, expect this to pull the trigger for investors to flee the markets and cause a fire sale across the board. For DOGE this would mean that it could tank another 24% on top of the 7% forecasted for today. That would bring DOGE price action down to around $0.1030, where the monthly S1 support level is situated, the red descending trendline and the $0.1000 psychological level – providing three elements that could catch the falling price action.

S&P 500 opening range gave way to heavy selling as 4,470s didn‘t hold. Risk-on was overpowered, and the flight to Treasuries didn‘t support tech. And that‘s most medium-term worrying – stocks don‘t look to have found a floor, and gave up the opportunity for a tight range trading on Friday all too easily. The prospects of war were that formidable opponent, against which the S&P 500 didn‘t really stand a chance. So, the downtrend has reasserted itself, and HYG doesn‘t look to have found a floor – junk bonds are leading to the downside, with energy, materials and financials standing out, which isn‘t exactly a bullish constellation. The other key beneficiaries of the safe haven bid were gold, miners and oil. Silver lagged as copper retreated all too easily, but I‘m looking for that to change. As for Monday‘s session in stocks, the odds of a countertrend move to the upside, at least intraday, are good. Just a quick glance at the dollar, gold, oil and Bitcoin would reveal the extent of possible stabilization. Stabilization, not a reversal, because HYG is unlikely to turn up, and I‘m not looking for stocks to start moving up again. Thursday marked a high point in the countertrend rally, which was cut short after some 5 days only. Sideways to a little up is the best the bulls can hope for on Monday. Funny though how with all eyes on Eastern Europe, the inflation and steep rate hike bets receded? What a Super Bowl! Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Whatever backing and filling there could have been, the S&P 500 didn‘t hesitate, and is pointing to the downside. The bears are back, and aren‘t yielding. Credit Markets Credit markets went decidedly risk-off, and a little sideways reprieve wouldn‘t be surprising. But it would change nothing as the bets on rising rates, are on, and the 2-year Treasury is forcing the Fed‘s hand. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold came alive on the tensions escalation news – the uptrend is alive and well indeed, even without these geopolitical developments. The upswing wasn‘t really sold into. Crude Oil Crude oil correction came to an abrupt close, and it‘s unlikely black gold would dip in the current environment. The upcoming corrections would be bought as much as the previous one, and given the oil stocks performance, wouldn‘t likely reach far to the downside. Copper Copper is under pressure, and not holding up as well as other commodities. Base metals though are breaking higher, which is why I‘m looking at Friday‘s red metal trading as a temporary setback only. Bitcoin and Ethereum The floor in cryptos is heralding a tight range day – it‘s good for risk-on that Friday‘s downswing isn‘t immediately continuing, it‘s buying some time. Summary S&P 500 bears are back in the driver‘s seat, and the rush to Treasuries took the spotlight off rate hikes – to a small degree. Not that the Fed would be changing course on geopolitics, we aren‘t there yet. To the contrary, credit markets are pressuring the central bank to move – as decisively as possible in the overleveraged system – and Powell would find it hard not to deliver. Come autumn latest, the strain on the real economy would be hard to ignore – real estate is feeling the pinch already. Stock bulls can‘t expect higher prices unless tech recovers, and we look to be still far from that moment. Real assets with safe haven appeal are likely to do best, and the same goes for the dollar temporarily too. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

TSLA drops nearly 5% on Friday as macro factors in charge. All EV stocks LCID, Chinese names suffer the same fate. Tesla once again is targetting its 200-day moving average. Tesla (TSLA) followed many EV names (all, if we are correct) lower on Friday as macro factors took charge over equity markets. The dominant theme so far in 2022 has been one of rising rates and inflationary pressures. This has led to high growth and tech names underperforming, while energy and financial stocks have been the place to be. That is likely to remain the theme for at least the next quarter if not also Q2. Russia and Ukraine tensions have pushed the oil price above $90, and financial stocks benefit from higher interest rates. Growth stocks, however, do not benefit from higher interest rates as investors look for businesses with cash. With higher interest rates, future cash flows become less valuable. So of the three names mentioned, Tesla, Rivian (RIVN) or Lucid (LCID), we would not want to currently be long any of them. We expect TSLA to perform best of the three due to its market-leading position and revenue, but this sector is out of favour and likely to remain so. Tesla Stock News The latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) confirms what we saw from Chinese EV companies earlier. Deliveries for January were down versus December. This is due to the lunar new year in China. Tesla sold 59,845 vehicles in January, down from 70,847 China-made vehicles in December. The Chinese electric vehicle market remains the largest EV market in the world, helped by government incentives and population demand. Tesla Stock Forecast Tesla remains in the strong downtrend identified earlier this year. $945 was tested multiple times as resistance and failed. This has resulted in the recent pullback. Now $824 remains as the 200-day moving average. Below we have trendline support at $752. The 200-day is the key level. Tesla has not closed below its 200-day moving average since June 2021. It has broken the 200-day on an intraday basis several times since but always failed to close below. Notice how volume has steadily been declining in Tesla this month, despite some hugely volatile days. This is indicative of a lack of conviction in the stock. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily

Since the end of last week, the price of gold has risen by more than 3%. With a high of $1879, it was temporarily rose to highs since last June. Biden's warning that Russia could invade Ukraine "at any moment" triggered a broad sell-off in Europe and several emerging markets and tangentially affected the US equity market. Recent events have brought back interest in assets that have benefited from decades of tension: gold has risen as insurance against currency destabilisation, and oil has risen on fears of a surge in demand and a shortage of supply. Geopolitics give a shaky ground behind this growth, so investors should be wary of joining gold's rise. It is impossible to predict whether the next move will escalate or de-escalate. Now, there are far more signs that the peak of tension is behind us, yet gold continues to gain today. Likely, the fundamental demand for gold is now driven by a desire to preserve the purchasing value of capital amid inflation and ongoing price shocks across a range of commodities. Also, tech analysis is now on the side of the bulls. A trend of higher local lows has formed since the end of September, with the last anchor point in late January. In addition, the 50-day moving average is again above the 200-day moving average, giving a bullish "golden cross" signal. This signal coincided with a solid upward momentum on Friday, strengthening the bullish signal. In January, the former retracement resistance line became support, indicating a break in the trend. If gold stays above $1865 - the area of the November peaks- despite the reduction of the geopolitical premium - we can speak of a bullish momentum development. In this case, the nearest target of this impulse will be the area of $1900-1910. In general, we can say that the long period of correction and sluggish dynamics of gold is over, and then its price can move from one local top to another, potentially exceeding $2000 by August.

USDJPY hits double top The US dollar recovers as hot CPI fuels bets of a 50 basis points hike in March. The rally came to a halt at January’s high (116.35). Profit-taking compounded by new selling triggered a liquidation below 115.50. The medium-term trajectory remains upward and the bulls may be eager to buy the dips. 114.90 is the next support and an oversold RSI may attract bargain hunters. Further down, the daily support at 114.20 is a major demand zone in case of a deeper correction. A close above the double top could resume the uptrend. XAGUSD tests resistance Bullion rallies over investors’ flight to safety. Silver continues to climb from the daily support at 22.00. Following a brief pullback, a break above the recent high at 23.70 indicates strong buying interest. A bullish MA cross is a sign of acceleration to the upside. The psychological level of 24.00 is the next hurdle and a breakout would bring the price to January’s peak at 24.70. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a limited fallback; if so the previous low at 22.90 would be the closest support. GER 40 tests critical floor The Dax 40 remains under pressure over Russia-Ukraine tensions. The last rebound’s failure to achieve a new high showed that the bears were still in charge. Trend followers are likely to sell into strength as sentiment remains wary. The index saw bids in the critical demand zone around 14900 which has been tested several times in the last four months. A bearish breakout would trigger a broader sell-off and put a serious dent in the medium-term rally. The bulls will need to reclaim 15500 before they could turn things around.

The first cryptocurrency returned to growth on Tuesday morning, adding 3.3% and rising to 43,500. Technically, BTCUSD held above the 50-day moving average and received support from buyers after another touch of this level. At the same time, however, this average is directed downwards, emphasizing the general downward trend. Cryptocurrencies seem to be once again trying on the role of a safe-haven asset, becoming a little more like gold and a little less like stocks. Although US stock indices were under pressure on Monday, they decided to stop the sharp decline at the end of last week. However, the high-tech Nasdaq ended the day unchanged. European stock indicators showed a noticeable drop under the influence of tensions around Ukraine. On the same background, gold shot up 3% to highs since June last year. It should be understood that in the event of a massive sale of shares, only short-term government bonds will be the protective asset of last resort. Institutions invested $75 million in crypto funds last week, according to CoinShares. Over the past four weeks, net inflows to crypto funds amounted to $209 million. The head of Uber said that the company would definitely start accepting cryptocurrencies in the future. A British crypto investor has announced the creation of a city for crypto investors in the Pacific and expects thousands of supporters from around the world to join soon. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation proposed to limit the investments of unqualified Russian investors in cryptocurrencies to 50 thousand rubles. The agency estimates tax revenues to the budget from the legalization of the cryptocurrency market at 10-15 billion rubles, and the main amount of payments will fall on the miners. Overall, Bitcoin was down 0.2% on Monday, ending the day at around $42,200. Ethereum added 0.1%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten showed mixed dynamics: from a decrease of 1.6% (XRP) to a rise of 2 .2% (Terra). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.5% per day, to $1.97 trillion. The BTC dominance index did not change during the day, remaining at the level of 40.7%. The Fear and Greed Index is up 2 points to 46 and is in a state of fear.

The Russian market is trying to grow this morning. The RTS index has already added 5.5%, while the ruble has taken away 1.7% from the dollar and 1.3% from the euro. The growth impulse was formed yesterday when Foreign Minister Lavrov called for a search for diplomatic ways out of the situation. Later, comments by Zelensky, who in an address to the nation insisted on a diplomatic solution, and a speech by Shoigu, who ordered part of the troops to return to locations of permanent de-escalation, added positives. So far, these are only signals of readiness to discuss and look for ways to resolve it, but the incident is far from over: there are too many “buts” at all levels. If we consider the movement of currencies and stocks from the position that the market takes everything into account, we cannot fail to note positive signals. The EURRUB pair returned to the position from which it rushed upwards on Friday. Fixation below 85 will send a signal of market confidence in a trend reversal. In this case, a fast road to area 84 will be open for the pair. If politicians really plan to move forward on issues that have hung over the ruble like a sword of Damocles for the last 8 years, it will be possible to talk about the potential for the euro to roll back to the level of 80 rubles before the end of the first quarter. For the dollar, the significant point is the mark of 73.50. Fixing below this level will mark the renewal of the lows of the exchange rate for the entire last stage of tension and will also return the Russian currency to the long-term growth trend. In this case, a move to the 70 area over the next six weeks could be a viable prospect. However, even these relatively short-term forecasts look too shaky since the situation can turn 180 degrees at any second.

Events in recent weeks have brought back interest in assets that have benefited from tensions in previous decades, with gold rising as insurance against currency destabilisation and oil rising on fears of surging demand and shortages of supply if sanctions constrain supplies from Russia. Interestingly, the West is trying to balance sanctions restrictions on oil as more encouraging comments come out of the talks with Iran. In our view, oil is very expensive, climbing to current heights faster than the economy can afford it. This rise is caused by geopolitical tensions around Russia, which acts as the world's largest energy exporter by a wide margin. Fears about the stability of future supply have so far outweighed any negatives, but it is still prudent to zero in on geopolitical influences over the medium to long term. And with that in mind, the oil price looks unsustainably high, vulnerable to a corrective pullback once the dust of military hardware settles. About 12 years ago, we saw a similar picture when oil prices recovered quickly. And then, the result was another round of global economic weakness, which also knocked down demand for commodities and forced regulators to postpone policy normalisation steps. Will it be like that now? Quite possibly, and then in the second half of the year, oil could turn sharply to correction and cause another shock for the economy. In recent weeks, significant factors are potentially capping price rises with increased drilling activity. Also, Russia will ramp up production as most of the wells are in areas with a harsh climate. Looking locally, we can see how quickly any declines in oil over the last three months are being bought out. In such an environment, oil could soon find itself in short squeeze territory, with short positions being forced to close due to rising prices. This mirrors what we saw in April 2020. It is difficult to predict the peak price level in such an environment. It would be an ideal market picture if the short squeeze occurred at the end of April on another major expiry, paying homage to events two years earlier. And ideally, if we saw a price return to the $112 area where the bear market in oil started in July 2014. But this is an idealised picture. The reality is likely to be less mathematically accurate, as so much is now tied to the actions and comments of policymakers.

Since December, sandbox has been trying to break the downtrend. As bulls attempt to break through, expect some profits to be booked as some targets lie nearby. Once above $4.72, expect $5.00 and $6.00 to be the following targets in the relief rally. Sandbox (SAND) price action is surfing on a wave of relief this morning as tensions between Russia, and the West start to ease on positive news. With that, investors have been falling over each other to get back into cryptocurrencies, and Sandbox price is set to break the longer-term red descending trendline, and downtrend since December last year. Some low-hanging fruit will be targeted in the breakthrough and could provide enough incentive for bulls to book partial profits and go for the ultimate goal of $6.00, holding 47% of gains. Sandbox bulls are in for 47% gains in the relief rally Sandbox price action is again hammering on the red descending trend line that originates from December last year and has been dictating the downtrend ever since. The renewed push comes from tailwinds that emerged overnight on some positive news around de-escalation in the situation between Russia and Ukraine. As the scene is set for a solid relief rally, expect to see some excellent (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/sandbox-tests-support-at-425-before-sand-test-prior-all-time-highs-202202112001) returns, beginning with some nice profits nearby as a good start. SAND bulls will have their eyes on $4.72 with the 55-day Simple Moving Average and an overall (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-dogecoin-sandbox-and-cardano-european-wrap-10-february-video-202202101133) pivotal level falling in line around the same area. Although this level is not far from the red descending trendline, it will still return around 16% of gains intraday. Bulls will have a good incentive to book profits midway but stay in the trade with more considerable profits gained when the price rises towards $5.00 and $6.00 – the next targets in this week’s relief rally. The trade has an excellent risk-return ratio and is the most viable (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/sandbox-price-bound-for-another-30-gains-as-sand-finds-support-202202101005) as we advance. SAND/USD daily chart Should German chancellor Scholz come out with some negative comments and ramp up the rhetoric of full-scale escalation of the tensions, expect (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/shiba-inu-to-enter-the-metaverse-and-challenge-axie-infinity-sandbox-and-decentraland-202202091718) a knee jerk reaction with a firm rejection or false break of the red descending trend line, trapping bulls and pushing them out of their positions as SAND price action collapses back towards $3.50. From there, another leg lower could follow towards $3.00, with the 200-day SMA coming in at around $2.85 and playing its part as a supportive element in the belief that a recovery is still possible. If the 200-day SMA is no match for the downward pressure, expect a break and further push towards $2.50 or $2.00.

WTI has pulled back sharply on Tuesday from Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00 and is back in the $91.00s. Fears of an imminent Russian invasion into Ukraine have eased as Russia withdraws some troops, weighing on oil prices. Oil prices have pulled back sharply from Monday’s multi-year highs, with front-month WTI futures now trading back to the south of the $92.00 level, down about $3.0 per day and more than $4.0 below Monday’s multi-year highs near $96.00. Press reports about a withdrawal of troops on the Ukrainian border to their bases has spurred a rebound in risk appetite and reduction in demand for safe havens on Tuesday. Such flows could have further legs in wake of remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin who just said that a decision on partial troop withdrawal had been taken. For oil, tentative signs of de-escalation have triggered profit-taking as geopolitical risk premia is reduced somewhat, though Western nations and NATO remain highly concerned that Russia maintains the option for a near-term attack. One theme to watch is that Russian President Vladimir Putin might imminently recognise the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LPR and DPR), both breakaway regions of Ukraine located in the East. Western officials have criticised Russia’s State Duma for voting in favour of the recognition, which would break the Minsk Agreement designed to implement a ceasefire in the Ukraine civil war. Geopolitical strategists fear that Russia might create a false pretext for military action against Ukraine by rekindling violence in the East, with a recognition of LPR and DPR independence a potential step in this direction. For now, WTI traders will remain on tenterhooks and trading conditions will remain choppy/headline-driven. Near-term WTI bears will likely eye an imminent test of an uptrend that has been supporting the price action for the whole of 2022 thus far in the $90.00s. A break below this could see oil prices swiftly move back under $90.00 and hit support in the form of last week’s lows in the mid-$88.00s. Aside from Eastern European geopolitics, oil traders will also be keeping an eye on upcoming private weekly US oil inventory data at 2130GMT, as well as indirect US/Iran nuclear negotiations, which continue to rumble on in the background.

  Gold continues to benefit from the market turmoil and has apparently forgotten about medium-term problems. Meanwhile, the rising USD and a hawkish Fed await confrontation. With financial markets whipsawing after every Russia-Ukraine headline, volatility has risen materially in recent days. With whispers of a Russian invasion on Feb. 16 (which I doubt will be realized), the game of hot potato has uplifted the precious metals market. However, as I noted on Feb. 14, while the developments are short-term bullish, the PMs’ medium-term fundamentals continue to decelerate. For example, while the general stock market remains concerned about a Russian invasion, U.S. Treasury yields rallied on Feb. 14. With risk-off sentiment often born in the bond market, the safety trade benefiting the PMs didn’t materialize in U.S. Treasuries. As a result, bond traders aren’t demonstrating the same level of fear. Please see below: Source: Investing.com Furthermore, while the potential conflict garners all of the attention, the fundamental issues that upended the PMs in 2021 remain unresolved. For example, with inflation surging, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Feb. 14 that “the last four [Consumer Price Index] reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the U.S. economy.” “The inflation that we’re seeing is very bad for low- and moderate-income households,” he said. “People are unhappy, consumer confidence is declining. This is not a good situation. We have to reassure people that we’re going to defend our inflation target and we’re going to get back to 2%.” As a result, Bullard wants a 50 basis point rate hike in March, and four rate hikes by July. Please see below: Source: CNBC Likewise, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is much less hawkish than Bullard, she also supports a rate hike in March. Source: CNBC As a result, while the PMs can hide behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the short term, their medium-term fundamental outlooks are profoundly bearish. As mentioned, Bullard highlighted inflation’s impact on consumer confidence, and for a good reason. With the University of Michigan releasing its Consumer Sentiment Index on Feb. 11, the report revealed that Americans’ optimism sank to “its worst level in a decade, falling a stunning 8.2% from last month and 19.7% from last February.” Chief Economist, Richard Curtin said: “The recent declines have been driven by weakening personal financial prospects, largely due to rising inflation, less confidence in the government's economic policies, and the least favorable long term economic outlook in a decade.” “The impact of higher inflation on personal finances was spontaneously cited by one-third of all consumers, with nearly half of all consumers expecting declines in their inflation adjusted incomes during the year ahead.” Please see below: To that point, I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that U.S. President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects often move inversely to inflation. With the dynamic still on full display, immediate action is needed to maintain his political survival. Please see below: To explain, the light blue line above tracks the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in inflation, while the dark blue line above tracks Biden’s approval rating. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the U.S. President remains in a highly perilous position. Moreover, with U.S. midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the Democrats can’t wait nine to 12 months for inflation to calm down. As a result, there is a lot at stake politically in the coming months. As further evidence, as inflation reduces real incomes and depresses consumer confidence, the Misery Index also hovers near crisis levels. Please see below: To explain, the blue line above tracks the Misery Index. For context, the index is calculated by subtracting the unemployment rate from the YoY percentage change in the headline CPI. In a nutshell, when inflation outperforms the unemployment rate (the blue line rises), it creates a stagflationary environment in America. To that point, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the Misery Index is approaching a level that coincided with the global financial crisis (GFC). As a result, reversing the trend is essential to avoid a U.S. recession. As such, with inflation still problematic and the writing largely on the wall, the market-implied probability of seven rate hikes by the Fed in 2022 is nearly 93% (as of Feb. 10). Please see below: Ironically, while consumers and the bond market fret over inflation, U.S. economic growth remains resilient. While I’ve been warning for months that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, continued strength should turn hawkish expectations into hawkish realities. To that point, the chart above shows that futures traders expect the U.S. Federal Funds Rate to hit 1.75% in 2022 (versus 0.08% now). However, Michael Darda, Chief Economist at MKM Partners, expects the Fed’s overnight lending rate to hit 3.5% before it’s all said and done. “We have this booming economy with high inflation and a rapid recovery in the labor market – much different relative to the last cycle,” he said. “The Fed is behind the curve this time. They are going to have to do more.”  Singing a similar tune, John Thorndike, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, told clients that “inflation is now here, [but] the narrative is that inflation goes away and markets tend to struggle with change. It is more likely than not that real yields and policy rates need to move above inflation during this cycle.” The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine drama distracts the PMs from the fundamental realities that confront them over the medium term, their outlooks remain profoundly bearish. Moreover, while I’ve noted on numerous occasions that the algorithms will enhance momentum in either direction, their influence wanes materially as time passes. As such, while headline risk is material in the short-term, history shows that technicals and fundamentals reign supreme over longer time horizons. Thus, while the recent flare-up is an unfortunate event that hurts our short position, the medium-term developments that led to our bearish outlook continue to strengthen. In conclusion, the PMs rallied on Feb. 14, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the primary driver moving the financial markets. However, while the PMs will ride the wave as far as it takes them, they ignored that the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields also rallied. Moreover, with Fed officials ramping up the hawkish rhetoric, the PMs' fundamental outlook is more bearish now than it was in 2021 (if we exclude the Russia-Ukraine implications). As a result, while the timeline may have been delayed, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight. For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Pause but more likely a rebound, is what comes next for S&P 500. Closing above the 200-day moving average is possible, but more is needed for a trend reversal in this correction. Credit Markets Credit markets moderated their pace of decline, and there‘s no risk-on posture apparent yet. We may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle. Gold, Silver and Miners Miners and gold are benefiting from the tensions, but they‘ll just as easily give up some of these gains next. What‘s important though, is the continued trend of making higher highs and higher lows. Crude Oil Crude oil looks also likely to lose some of the prior safe haven bid, but similarly to precious metals, the trend is higher, and corrections are more or less eagerly bought. Only should the Fed‘s actions harm the real economy, would oil prices meaningfully decline. Copper Copper is rebounding, but still remains trading in a not too hot fashion – the red metal is still trailing behind other commodities significantly. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos deciding to go higher, is a positive sign for stocks as well – the volume looks to be noticeable enough at the close later today to lend the upswing credibility. Summary S&P 500 bulls have the opportunity today, but the market remains as headline sensitive as everything else. Treasuries stabilizing or even moving higher while funds flow out of the dollar, that would be a bullish confirmation – and the same goes for precious metals not getting hammered, but finding a decent floor. The point is that war jitters calming down when Russia doesn‘t take the bait, makes assets to continue with their prior trends and focus, which is Fed and tightening. The bets on 50bp rate hike in Mar went down recently, and when they start rising again, it would make sense to deploy more capital – including into oil above $90, give or take a buck. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Britain's consumer price index fell 0.1% in January, not as sharply as analysts had expected; they were expecting an average fall of 0.2%. Year over year inflation reached 5.5%, a new record since March 1992. There are plenty of signs that peak inflation is near, but the big question is how quickly price growth will return to its 2% target and what effort it will take from the Bank of England. Among signs of a cooling inflation outlook we highlight the second month of slowing producer prices to 13.6% yoy in January against 13.9% and 15.2% in the previous two months. This is an early indicator which allows us to expect less pressure from commodity prices on producers further down the line, which will cool consumer inflation in the coming months. Among the early indicators of inflation around the world is also the Chinese producer price index, which noted a slowdown in January to 9.1% from 10.3% a month earlier and a peak of 13.5% in October. The publication of the UK inflation accelerated the rise in the pound, sending GBPUSD above 1.3570.

Cryptocurrencies rose on Tuesday on the back of strengthening stock indices and falling protective assets like gold, the yen, and treasuries. Bitcoin started its rise before the news about Russia and Ukraine hit the wires and sparked risk-on sentiments. Technical factors may have influenced the first cryptocurrency's strengthening, with BTC pushing back from its 50-day moving average, which has been acting as a support level for the past week. Russia has proposed allowing cryptocurrency mining in specific regions and imposing taxes on the conversion of crypto assets into fiat and is making progress in testing the digital rouble with the first interbank transfers. Bitcoin rose on Tuesday to its highest level in the past week (+4.4%), ending the day around $44,100, where it is trading on Wednesday morning. Ethereum jumped 7.3% on Tuesday, settling at $3100, while other leading altcoins from the top 10 also added: from 1.7% (XRP) to 12% (Avalanche). Overnight, crypto market capitalisation rose 2% to $1.98 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap estimates. Since early January, the market has not been consistently above the 2 trillion mark, and consolidation above could be an essential signal for bulls to move from observation to active buying. Since the end of January, there has been a notable uptrend support line that can be drawn through the local lows, which sets up optimism in the short term. The two largest cryptocurrencies, BTC and ETH, are attempting to consolidate above their 50-day averages, which previously signalled the end of a bearish phase. This was primarily made possible by optimism on Wall Street, where investors continue to buy out drawdowns. Altcoins showed outperformance, which led to a 0.3 percentage point decline in the Bitcoin Dominance Index to 40.4%. The Fear & Greed Index climbed from 46 to 51, moving into the Neutral from the Fear territory.

EURUSD bounces off support The US dollar retreats as the Fed’s half-point hike in March remains uncertain. The euro’s break above the daily resistance at 1.1480 boosted buyers’ confidence after a sell-off in January. It bounced off 1.1280 at the base of the recent bullish breakout. The support also is right next to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1265) making it an area of congestion. A close above the intermediate resistance (1.1370) would attract more buying interest. Then an extension above 1.1490 may fuel a rally towards 1.1600. GBPUSD awaits breakout The sterling holds well as Britain’s wage growth beats expectations in December. The current rebound came under pressure in the supply zone around 1.3660 which was the origin of a sharp drop in late January. An overbought RSI led to some profit-taking but the pound has found support above 1.3480. The bears’ failed attempts to push lower indicates strong demand. A bullish close above 1.3640 would lift offers towards last month’s high at 1.3750. The daily support at 1.3370 is a key floor in keeping the rally intact. XAUUSD seeks support Gold drifts lower on signs of de-escalation in Ukraine. A break above last November’s high at 1875 may have put the precious metal back on track. However, the rally ran out of steam in the short term with the RSI shooting into the overbought territory. The price is taking a breather and buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to stake in. A drop below 1852 may wash out weak hands and deepen the correction towards 1830. 1880 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could propel bullion to last June’s high at 1910.

The Turkish lira has stabilised after the wild ride of December. Since the start of the year, the fluctuation of the lira formed a converging range with a centre of gravity at 13.50 in USDTRY and 15.40 in EURTRY. However, this lull is hardly a victory for the unorthodox monetary policy ideas being pursued by Turkey. Instead, market participants have turned their attention to developments in Russia and Ukraine, which has made Turkey, if not a haven, comparatively less dangerous for investors. Nevertheless, we see this lull as temporary, expecting the rate to move out of consolidation upwards, as Turkey's fight against inflation is weaker than necessary. Excessive monetary policy softness is further highlighted by monetary tightening worldwide, including in Europe, where central banks are moving to raise rates or roll back stimulus. The latest inflation estimates for January show consumer prices adding 50% and manufacturing prices almost doubling from the same month a year earlier. PPI is being pushed up by 70% devaluation of the national currency, plus a general rise in producer prices close to 10% in countries from China to the USA. Consumer prices have not yet fully absorbed the effects of the fall devaluation of the lira and promise to gain momentum in the coming months, continuing to undermine confidence in the national currency. An assessment of how inadequately soft Turkey's monetary policy is can be made by comparing the differential of inflation and the key rate. In Turkey, it is 35%, in Russia minus 1%, in Ukraine around 0% and in the UK 5%. Even in the US, where it is believed that the Fed has overlooked inflation and will now have to catch up with it through 7 0.25 point hikes this year, this differential is 7.25%, almost five times less than in Turkey. From all of this, there is a conclusion that the Turkish lira is heading upwards out of the consolidation range, i.e. a new round of currency decline is to be expected. However, this wave will likely not be as disastrous as it was in the final quarter of last year.

S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that: (...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 rebounded on low volume but that wouldn‘t be an issue in a healthy bull market – the trouble is that this 2022 price action isn‘t very healthy.Credit MarketsHYG didn‘t trade on a strong note, and the rise in yields continues almost unabated. This is what I meant yesterday by saying that we may be though nearing the point of credit market reprieve – as much as that‘s compatible with rate raising cycle.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals suffered a temporary setback – they easily gave up some of the safe haven gains, which isn‘t surprising. The bulls though haven‘t lost control, and that‘s key.Crude OilCrude oil dip was bought, and there wasn‘t much bearish conviction to start with. The general uptrend is likely to continue, and $90 appears likely to hold over the next few days definitely.CopperCopper is now in for some backing and filling, but managed to catch up with other commodities a little yesterday. The red metal remains range bound, but making good bullish progress.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are paring back yesterday‘s advance, and unless the mid Feb lows give, they‘re likely to muddle through with a modest bullish bias till the attention shifts to the Fed again.SummaryS&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems slipping away with each 1D or 4H candle, and I‘m not counting on the credit markets to ride to stocks‘ rescue. The commodities bull though is likely to carry on with little interference – and so does the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing. Slowdown in economic growth with rampant inflation and the realization that the Fed tightening hasn‘t had the effect, is awaiting, and would usher in strong gold and silver gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Binance Coin takes a small step back this morning due to some profit-taking.BNB bulls hold all the cards as the relief rally is not over yet.Expect a pop above $444-$452 with a profit target set at $480 for the moment.Binance Coin (BNB) price action shot back above the red descending trend line yesterday with a massive relief rally that lifted market sentiment. With that, the downtrend looks to be broken, and an uptrend could be on the cards if bulls can take out the $444-$452 resistance barrier with a triple top formation, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the longer-term pivotal level all coincide in this region. Once through there, expect the next stage to be set for a move towards $480 with the 200-day SMA coming in, returning another 10%.Binance Coin set for the second phase in the recovery rallyBinance Coin is undergoing some profit-taking this morning after the solid relief rally from yesterday (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-decentraland-binance-dogecoin-asian-wrap-16-feb-video-202202160214) that has lifted market sentiment and saw some decent inflows into markets. On the way up, bulls hit some resistance from the double top from February 08 and January 21 and, in the process, made it a triple top resistance. This, together with the already known $452 and the 55-day SMA coming in at $445, makes it a substantial (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/binance-coin-must-break-out-above-this-level-before-bnb-can-retest-660-202202152150) barrier that will need to be broken to prove that the relief rally still has plenty of juice to go.Expect thus some profit-taking today, a little bit on the back foot with $419 as support to bounce off back to $445. Some more positive signals coming from the Russia-Ukraine developments could be the needed additional catalyst to push through this difficult barrier. The next target is set at $480, with the 200-day SMA falling in line with that considerable number, resulting in probably the same profit-taking pattern (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-and-shiba-inu-price-climbs-as-binance-smart-chain-whales-accumulate-meme-coins-202202151719) as BNB price action shows today.BNB/USD daily chartOverall, the US keeps claiming that the situation in Central-Europe remains precarious and could see an escalation (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-bitcoin-binance-coin-and-decentraland-european-wrap-11-february-202202111055) any time now. Once those headlines hit the wires, expect the whole cryptocurrency space to collapse and for there to be a massive pullback from investors, with BNB price falling back initially to $389. Depending on the severity of the attacks, another push lower towards $340 would be the logical outcome and result in BNB price shedding 22% of its value.

Tesla bounces strongly on Tuesday as risk assets surge. TSLA stock gains just over 5% on Tuesday. Geopolitical tensions falling help risk appetites return. Tesla (TSLA) shares bounced strongly on Tuesday, eventually closing up over 5% in a strong day for equities. The stock market was buoyed by news of some Russian deployments returning to their bases. Russia then appeared to confirm this as hopes grew for a diplomatic solution. This saw an obvious bounce in equities (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) with the strongest names being those that were previously the weakest. Understandable, but is this gain sustainable? NATO this morning has said it sees no sign of Russian troops pulling back from the Ukraine border. NATO has said it sees Russian troop numbers still growing along the Russian-Ukraine border. This news (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) still has legs. Volatility has been high as a result and will likely continue that way. Tesla Stock News The latest quarterly SEC filings have provided much information to pore over. In particular, Tesla, they do note some hedge fund selling. This is not too surprising given the record highs TSLA stock pushed on to before Elon Musk sold a stake. Benzinga reports that the latest filing shows Ray D'Alio's Bridgewater cutting its stake in Tesla. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest was regularly top-slicing her firm's stake in Tesla recently. CNBC also reported yesterday that hedge fund Greenlight Capital had made a bearish bet on Tesla shares. Greenlight, according to the report, has been a long time Tesla bear. Apart from those snippets though, macroeconomic factors are the main driver of the Tesla stock price currently. Electric vehicle stocks have not been a strong sector so far in 2022 as growth, in general, is out of favor with investors. This has led to steep falls in other names such as Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID). Both are at a much earlier stage of development than Tesla (TSLA) and on that basis, we would favor Tesla (TSLA) over them. But we must stress we would ideally avoid the sector entirely until perhaps the second quarter. Once markets have adjusted to the prospect of higher rates, some high-growth stocks may benefit. historical in a Fed (https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed) hiking cycle the main indices do advance but growth sectors struggle. Rivian so far is down 36% year to date, Lucid is down 24% while Tesla is the outperformer, down 12% for 2022. Tesla Stock Forecast We remain in the chop zone between the two key levels of $945 and $886. Breaking $945 should lead to a move toward $1,063. That would still be consistent with the longer-term bearish trend. Nothing goes down or up in a straight line. TSLA is unlikely to be able to fight the current overpowering macroeconomic backdrop of rising rates (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/rates) hitting high growth stocks. But breaking $945 is still significant in the short term and should see some fresh momentum. While $886 is significant, the 200-day moving average at $826 should have our real attention on the downside. Tesla has not closed below this level in over 6 months, so that would be significant and again lead to a fresh influx of momentum. Just this time though, it would be selling momentum. Tesla (TSLA) chart, daily Short-term swing traders should note the volume momentum behind moves. Once volume dries up, Tesla tends to fall off intraday. From the 15-minute chart below, we have an opening gap from Tuesday down to $880. This is short-term support, but a break will see the bottom of Monday's range at $840 tested. Tesla (TSLA) 15-minute chart

  The Natural Gas flight has passed its first goal and is on its way to the second target. Here is a map showing the route to Natgas’ new destination. In today’s edition, I will provide some updates on recent market developments for Natural Gas futures (NGF22) following my last projections published on Friday, Feb. 11, for which the stop was also updated on Wednesday. Trade Plan We all love it when a trade plan comes together! The market has to cope with stronger demand to fuel increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Therefore, you can see that the rebounding floor (support) provided was ideal for the Henry Hub, which is also supported by unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to turn its momentum back up. The recommended objective of $4.442 was almost hit yesterday. However, it was achieved this morning (during the European session) and the $4.818 level is now the next goal. As I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, my recommended stop, which was located just below the $ 3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), was recently lifted up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven). Now it could be lifted one more time up to 4.180, which corresponds to the 50% distance between the initial entry and target 1. By doing so, the second half of the trade would become optimally managed. Alternatively, you can also use an Average True Range (ATR) multiple to determine a different level (above breakeven) that may better suit your trading style. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned levels of our trade plan: DHenry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) That’s all folks for today. Happy trading! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The Ukrainian crisis is not likely to recede into the background anytime soon. Promising Russian statements about the withdrawal of troops are refuted by the West and Ukraine, near where the exercises are taking place. There was also a series of accusations and denials about the shootout in Donbas in the morning, which triggered impulsive selling of risky assets. The local momentum of the markets' decline was less than what we saw on Friday following Biden's statements about Russia's impending attack on Ukraine. Still, the latest news clearly shows that we should not hope for smooth and quick exhaustion of the conflict and a favourable resolution in the coming days. So far, however, there are more signals that Eastern European politicians still want a diplomatic, not forceful solution, which forms a modest reduction in the pull towards security. The Fed was also on the side of the stock market bulls yesterday. The published minutes of the January meeting were not as hawkish as investors had expected. The FOMC at the end of last month did not consider a 50-point rate hike in March and did not talk about the need for seven hikes this year. Then we had the labour market report, which showed strong growth in employment and wages, and even later came frightening figures about inflation accelerating to 40-year highs. Yesterday the retail sales figures were added to it. Americans bought harder than expected in January, and some observers attribute that to a rush of demand due to inflation fears and a spike in auto and apparel prices. The Fed might revise its view to a more hawkish one after bullish reports, but the markets did breathe a sigh of relief, managing to pull the S&P500 and Russell2000 into the green at the end of Wednesday. Meanwhile, the S&P500 and Dow Jones continue to struggle behind the 200-day moving average, with no victory signals for the bulls or the bears in this local battle. Investors and traders should pay close attention to this struggle, as a sharp pullback to one side or the other could set the direction for the days and weeks ahead.

Bitcoin ended Wednesday with symbolic gains, gaining 0.1% to stay around $44,100. Ethereum rose 1.4%, and the other leading altcoins in the top ten also showed mostly upward momentum, from 0.3% (Binance Coin) to 5.5% (Avalanche). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, grew by 0.9% over the day, to $2.09 trillion. Altcoins were in high demand, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 40.1%. The Fear and Greed Index rose another 1 point to 52 (neutral). For the second time this month, Bitcoin's growth is interrupted by attempts to gain a foothold above $45,000. In the event of a pullback, traders should monitor the dynamics near 42,000, where Bitcoin found support at the beginning of the week. Consolidation between 42,000 and 45,000 can be regarded as a positive signal, as it will consolidate confidence that the downtrend of recent months will not resume after a pause. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched an audit of the US representative office of the Binance crypto exchange. The Canadian authorities intend to track transactions in cryptocurrencies and block bank accounts in order to cut off funding for the Freedom Convoy truckers' protest movement. Twitter has added support for Ethereum addresses to the money transfer service within its application. The Bank of Russia plans to start the second stage of testing the cryptoruble in autumn. On Thursday morning, the markets and bitcoin experienced a downward momentum due to news of shelling in Ukraine. Cryptocurrencies reacted impulsively as a risk asset, but last week's example shows that they can also act as safe havens, as some investors may try to save capital using Bitcoin, Ethereum and a number of other large altcoins.

Bitcoin collapsed on Thursday, the most in almost a month amid sales of risky assets. BTC lost 7.7%, ending the day near $40,700. Ethereum fell 7.7%, while other leading altcoins from the top ten also fell, from 5.4% (Binance Coin) to 8.5% (Terra). The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinGecko, sank by 7.3%, to $1.94 trillion. Bitcoin sold more actively than altcoins, which led to a decrease in the Bitcoin dominance index by 0.3%, to 39.8%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index plummeted 22 points to 30, returning to a state of fear. Bitcoin has clearly lost its function as a defensive asset lately, showing almost no correlation with gold, which was in high demand on Wednesday and Thursday. The technical picture looks bearish in the short term. Bitcoin did not hold above the 50-day average and fell under previous local lows. It is quite possible that from the end of January to mid-February, we saw a pullback after the momentum of the decline, and now a new step down is being formed. JPMorgan Bank indicated that crypto assets would be negatively affected by tightening US monetary policy. This approach puts crypto on a par with growth companies, which have also come under increased pressure amid rising market interest rates in recent weeks. Charles Munger, an associate of legendary investor Warren Buffett, likened cryptocurrencies to a "venereal disease" and praised China for banning them. According to him, cryptocurrencies are used by hackers, criminals, as well as those who evade taxes.

Thanks to Fed minutes, the S&P 500 closed modestly up, but could have taken the stronger credit markets cue. Instead, the upswing was sold into – the selling pressure is there, and neither value nor tech took the opportunity to rise, even against the backdrop of a weakening dollar. That‘s quite telling – the stock market correction hasn‘t run its course yet, and whatever progress the bulls make, is being countered convincingly. Precious metals adored the combo of yields and dollar turning down – and reacted with the miners‘ outperformance. The silver to copper ratio is basing, and the white metal looks to have better short-term prospects than the red one. Still in the headline sensitive environment we‘re in, gold would be stronger than silver until inflation is recognized for what it is. If there‘s one thing that the aftermath of Fed minutes showed, it‘s that the commodities superbull is alive and well, and that precious metals likewise are acting very positively in this tightening cycle. Suffice to say that gold has a track record of turning up once the rate hikes finally start… Excellent, the portfolio is positioned accordingly. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 rebound is getting suspect, and should stocks close on a weak note today, it‘s clear that today‘s wobbling Philly Fed Manufacturing Index won‘t be balanced out by the succession of Fed speakers – the signs of real economy headwinds are here. Credit Markets HYG upswing could have had broader repercussions, and it‘s quite telling it didn‘t. The risk-on turn would likely be sold into, with consequences. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals suffered a temporary setback only indeed – I‘m looking for the gains to continue as the miners outperformance just can‘t be overlooked. Crude Oil Crude oil dipped some more, and the dip was again bought. Given the late session wavering, I‘m looking for some more sideways and volatile trading ahead before the upswing reasserts itself. Copper Copper continues trading sideways, but with bullish undertones. More consolidation before another upswing attempt is probable. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning down, but still haven‘t broken either way out of the current range. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are sending a message of caution. Summary S&P 500 bulls‘ opportunity seems increasingly slipping away given that the buyers couldn‘t defend gains after Fed minutes release. The upturn in credit markets is likely to prove of fleeting shelf life, and would exert downward pressure upon stocks. As I wrote yesterday (and talked extensively within today‘s article chart captions), the commodities bull is likely to carry on with little interference – and so would the precious metals bull as the yield curve keeps compressing, and the beginning of rate hikes would mark further headwinds for the real economy at a time of persistent inflation that could be perhaps brought down to 4-5% official rate late this year (which would leave the mainstream wondering why it just isn‘t transitory somewhat more – what an irony). The Fed‘s tools to be employed are simply insufficient to break the inflation‘s back, that‘s it. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

AUDUSD attempts to break out The Australian dollar finds support from a low jobless rate in January. The pair has previously hit resistance in the supply zone around 0.7250. This is a daily resistance from the sell-off in late January. Then a recovery above 0.7180 suggests solid buying pressure before a bearish mood could take hold again. A break above the key hurdle could initiate a bullish reversal above this year’s peak (0.7310). Otherwise, a prolonged consolidation may test the demand area between 0.7100 and 0.7150. NZDUSD tests resistance The New Zealand dollar climbed higher as the RBNZ can lift its cash rates next week. Price action came under pressure on the 30-day moving average (0.6730). However, strong support at 0.6590 builds a case for a potential reversal. A break above 0.6690 is an encouraging sign leaving 0.6730 as the last obstacle before a bullish extension. A broader rally would bring the kiwi back to January’s high at 0.6890. In the meantime, an overbought RSI caused a brief pullback towards 0.6660. SPX 500 consolidates The S&P 500 struggles as the Russia-Ukraine crisis persists. The previous rebound has met stiff selling pressure over the 30-day moving average (4590). A pullback has sent the RSI into the oversold territory, triggering some buyers’ interest in racking up the bargain. The rebound is still valid as long as the index stays above the critical area of 4280. A break above 4480 may extend gains to the double top at 4590 which is an important resistance. 4360 is the immediate support if the sideways action lingers.

  Gold prices declined in 2021 and the prospects for 2022 are not impressive as well. However, the yellow metal’s strategic relevance remains high. Last month, the World Gold Council published two interesting reports about gold. The first one is the latest edition of Gold Demand Trends, which summarizes the entire last year. Gold supply decreased 1%, while gold demand rose 10% in 2021. Despite these trends, the price of gold declined by around 4%, which – for me – undermines the validity of the data presented by the WGC. I mean here that the relevance of some categories of gold demand (jewelry demand, technological demand, the central bank’s purchases) for the price formation is somewhat limited. The most important driver for gold prices is investment demand. Unsurprisingly, this category plunged 43% in 2021, driven by large ETF outlfows. According to the report, “gold drew direction chiefly from inflation and interest rate expectations in 2021,” although it seems that rising rates outweighed inflationary concerns. As the chart below shows, the interest rates increased significantly last year. For example, 10-year Treasury yields rose 60 basis points. As a result, the opportunity costs for holding gold moved up, triggering an outflow of gold holdings from the ETF. As the rise in interest rates is likely to continue in 2022 because of the hawkish stance of the Fed, gold investment may struggle this year as well. The end of quantitative easing and the start of quantitative tightening may add to the downward pressure on gold prices. However, there are some bullish caveats here. First, gold has remained resilient in January, despite the hawkish FOMC meeting. Second, the Fed’s tightening cycle could be detrimental to the US stock market and the overall, highly indebted economy, which could be supportive of gold prices. Third, as the report points out, “gold has historically outperformed in the months following the onset of a US Fed tightening cycle”. The second publication released by the WGC last month was “The Relevance of Gold as a Strategic Asset 2022”. The main thesis of the report is that gold is a strategic asset, complementary to equities and bonds, that enhances investment portfolios’ performance. This is because gold is “a store of wealth and a hedge against systemic risk, currency depreciation, and inflation.” It is also “highly liquid, no one’s liability, carries no credit risk, and is scarce, historically preserving its value over time.” Gold is believed to be a great source of return, as its price has increased by an average of nearly 11% per year since 1971, according to the WGC. Gold can also provide liquidity, as the gold market is highly liquid. As the report points out, “physical gold holdings by investors and central banks are worth approximately $4.9 trillion, with an additional $1.2 trillion in open interest through derivatives traded on exchanges or the over-the-counter (OTC) market.” Last but not least, gold is an excellent portfolio diversifier, as it is negatively correlated with risk assets, and – importantly – this negative correlation increases as these assets sell off. Hence, adding gold to a portfolio could diversify it, improving its risk-adjusted return, and also provide liquidity to meet liabilities in times of market stress. The WGC’s analysis suggests that investors should consider adding between 4% and 15% of gold to the portfolio, but personally, I would cap this share at 10%.   Implications for Gold What do the recent WGC reports imply for the gold market? Well, one thing is that adding some gold to the investment portfolio would probably be a smart move. After all, gold serves the role of both a safe-haven asset and an insurance against tail risks. It’s nice to be insured. However, investing in gold is something different, as gold may be either in a bullish or bearish trend. You should never confuse these two motives behind owning gold! Sometimes it’s good to own gold for both insurance and investment reasons, but not always. When it comes to 2022, investment demand for gold may continue to be under downward pressure amid rising interest rates. However, there are also some bullish forces at work, which could intensify later this year. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Bitcoin price gets caught in a bearish triangle as tensions in Ukraine flare up again. Ethereum price returns to pivotal support, money repatriation goes into the second day. XRP price in pennant ready for a bearish breakout under the current sentiment. Cryptocurrencies are on the back foot as investors are getting worried about the escalating situation between Ukraine and Russia, as more reports come in from shots in the Donbas region near Luhansk. As the situation does not seem to de-escalate, investors are pulling their money out of what was believed to be the start of a solid and longer-term relief rally that is stalling at the moment. With more downside pressure to come, expect all significant cryptocurrencies to fall back to supportive pivotal levels. Bitcoin price falls into a bearish triangle, set to dip back below $40,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price is getting battered on Thursday after a fade on Wednesday that could still be attributed to some short-term profit-taking. The extension of the falls seems to confirm that sentiment is yet again dipping below zero towards risk-off. Investors pulling out their funds preemptively is reflected with the sharp decline in the Relative Strength Index, where the sell-side demand is outpacing the buy-side demand. In this context, Bitcoin price will remain under pressure for the rest of the week and could be set to slip below $40,000 in the coming days as the situation in Ukraine is set to deteriorate again, potentially inflicting further damage to the market mood. BTC price sees bulls unable to hold price action above $44,088 and in the process is forming a descending trend line that, together with the base at $41,756, is forming a bearish triangle. Expect Bitcoin valuation to decline further as the tensions around Luhansk increase by the hour. Once the $41,756 support is broken, the road is open for a nosedive towards $39,780 with the $40,000 psychological level broken yet again to the downside. BTC/USD daily chart A hail mary could be provided by the 55-day Simple Moving Average at $42,340, which already provided support on February 9 and February 15. With that move, a sudden breakthrough in the peace talks could become the needed catalyst to improve the situation and dislocate Bitcoin price action from the drag of the geopolitical news that is weighing. Bitcoin would see the demand on the buy-side blow up and see a big pop above $44,088. Ethereum bulls are breaking their jaws on the 55-day SMA as the price fades further Ethereum (ETH) price is getting crushed against the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,143, with bulls unfit to push and try to close price action above it. After three failed attempts in a row, it is becoming clear that the bullish support is wearing thin as, on Tuesday, the daily candle closed above there, and even if the next day ETH price opened above again, it closed below the 55-day SMA. On Wednesday, finally, both the open and the closing price were below the 55-day SMA. This proves that sentiment has shifted in just three trading days and looks set to fade further away from the 55-day SMA on Friday. Expect going forward in the next coming hours that bulls will get squeezed against the wall at $3,018 with both a pivotal level and the $3,000 marker a few dollars below there. As tensions mount, expect some more negative headlines, a breach in defense of the bulls with even the monthly pivot at $2,929 getting involved in the crosshairs. Depending on the severity and the further deterioration of the political situation in Ukraine and the correction in the stock markets, it is possible to see a nosedive towards $2,695. ETH/USD daily chart Global market sentiment is hanging on the lips of Ukraine and the geopolitical situation. With that, it is clear that once the situation gets resolved or de-escalates, markets can shift 180 degrees in a matter of seconds. That same rule applies to cryptocurrencies where Ethereum could pop back above the 55-day SMA and even set sail for $3,391, breaking the high of February and flirting with new highs for 2022. Bulls joining the rally will want to keep a close eye and be mindful of the RSI, as that would start to flirt with being overbought and, from there on, limiting any further big moves in the hours or next trading days to come. Ethereum short squeeze could trigger a spike to $4,000 XRP price set to lose 10% of market value as headline news breaks down relief rally Ripple (XRP) price is stuck in a pennant and is close to a breakout that looks set to be a bearish one. As global markets are continuing the fade from Wednesday, XRP price is breaking below the recent low and sees bears hammering down on the ascending side of the pennant. As more negative headlines cross the wires, expect this to add ammunition for bears to continue and start breaking the pennant to the downside. XRP price will look for support on the next support at hand, which comes in at $0.78, and depending on the severity of the news flow, that level should hold again as it did on February 14. If that is not the caseany further downside will be cut short by the double bottom around $0.75 from February 12 and 13 and the 55-day SMA coming in at or around that area. With that move, the RSI will be triggering some "oversold" red flags and see bears booking profit. XRP/USD daily chart A false bearish breakout could easily see bears trapped on entering on the break to the downside out of the pennant as bulls go in for the squeeze. That would mean that price shoots up towards $0.88 and takes out this week's high. Bears would be forced to change sides and join the buy-side demand to close their losing positions, adding to even more demand and possibly hitting $0.90 in the process. XRP set to explode towards $1.00, bulls hopeful over SEC vs Ripple case

GGPI Stock has rallied after a Superbowl ad. GGPI stock surges another 4% on Wednesday as momentum remains high. GGPI may struggle as markets turn negative and growth stocks struggle to hold gains. Gores Guggenheim (GGPI) stock is probably more commonly referred to as Polestar stock now that the SPAC will take electric vehicle maker Polestar public this year. The deal is due to complete some time in the first half of 2022. Polestar is an electric vehicle maker backed by Volvo and Chinese company Geely. So what is different about this one compared to the others? Gores Guggenheim Stock News Polestar looks merely like Volvo's EV division. We know this is not the case as Volvo has its hybrid and EV models planned. However, the companies certainly have strong links. Rivian (RIVN) went public in a blaze of hype and publicity due largely to its links to Amazon (AMZN) and Ford (F). Both companies had stakes in Rivian. However, from what we know, Rivian will have to build out its manufacturing and distribution network. It will not piggyback on Ford for this. Polestar uses the Volvo service network in the UK, and Polestar will utilize Volvo's South Carolina plant to manufacture Polestar models in the US. Previously, Polestar said it will have its showrooms in the US but use Volvo for servicing. Polestar will look to do as much sales work as possible online and use Volvo then for manufacturing and servicing. This gives it an obvious advantage over LCID and RIVN. Gores Guggenheim Stock Forecast On Wednesday, the stock spiked again, closing nearly 5% higher at $12.02. The company has been in charge since the Superbowl ad brought more attention to the stock and the cars. Both seem well received. Now GGPI stock has ramped up to a strong resistance area. Above $12 and as high as $12.36 is the previous spike high from December. This will be tough to break given that high risk stocks are likely to suffer as we close out the week. Geopolitical events are dominating and high growth names are still not favored. SPACs generally hold $10 cash until the deal goes through, so this is obvious support. The best strategy with SPAC trading is to try and buy as close to $10 as possible. GGPI 1-day chart

UK retail sales added 1.9% in January, following a dip of 4.0% a month earlier. By the same month a year earlier, the increase was 9.1%, as January 2021 saw a sharp tightening of the lockdown and the vaccination campaign had only just started. The data came out slightly better than expected, supporting purchases of British currency against the dollar, but remains very volatile due to restrictions in previous months. Sales generally remained above multi-year trend levels, which is a good signal of the economy’s health. After the financial crisis from 2009 to 2016, there was a long period when sales were below the long-term trend line and were one of the obstacles why the Bank of England could not go ahead with a rate hike. These days, the need to suppress inflation is combined with the ability to do so thanks to strong consumer demand and the labour market. Sales were also boosted by pent-up demand for services and goods that were in restricted supply during the pandemic. This process may gain momentum in the coming months, painting a more colourful picture of consumer activity, but could lead to disappointment in the second half of the year. The Bank of England should keep a close eye on the coming economic releases to avoid repeating the mistakes of the ECB, which rushed through a rate hike in May 2009, undermining the economic recovery. On Friday morning, the British pound is testing the highs of February, rising to 1.3630. A rise to 1.3680 may be a development in the current momentum. However, a jump even higher would reflect a break of the downtrend since last June, anchoring GBPUSD above the 200-day average and setting the pair up to test previous highs.

Gold and oil, former beneficiaries of geopolitical tensions late last week, have gone their separate ways, with the former rising 2.4% and the latter losing 5% since the start of this week. Brent crude rolled back below $90 and, at one point on Friday, was losing 2.3% to $89, despite still worrying reports of tensions around Ukraine and Russia. It has fallen below the local support of the past ten days and is now just one step away from a decline since the start of the month. While geopolitics remains a joker capable of playing, either way, the macroeconomic picture is working to cool the oil price. US commercial oil inventories rose last week against a seasonally typical decline. As a result, inventories are now 10.9% lower than a year earlier, although it was -15% in mid-January. Production stagnated at 11.6m b/d, but at the end of last week, there was an increase in the number of operating oil rigs from 497 to 516. New data will be released later this evening. Probably, we will see more evidence that producers have stepped up production, convinced of the strength of demand and record profits in many years at their disposal. Locally, the activation of extractive companies is playing into the price pullback from current levels. However, it is a factor in slowing price growth in the longer term, but not a failure. The vector of monetary policy is also worth paying attention to. Rising rates often derail speculative growth in oil. We saw the last two examples on this theme in 2014-2015 when oil collapsed by 75%, and in 2018, it fell by 45%. After those hard lessons, OPEC+ has worked much more closely to meet quotas, so we are talking about a correction rather than a new bear market for oil. Speaking of a local correction, we assume a pullback in the Brent price to the $85 area. That is the peak area in October last year and September 2018 and close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from December to mid-February. Deeper drawdowns are also possible if monetary tightening coincides with geopolitical détente and slowing demand. In that case, Brent might briefly correct towards $80. Positive signals on the Iran deal are also factors holding oil back. An agreement with Iran would signal an easing of some of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and add around 1% to the global energy system, allowing the resulting shortfall to be digested and a smooth return to restocking for the world.

As the global markets move away from recent concerns of war and Fed rate hikes, I believe both Small and Mid Cap indexes are uniquely positioned to potentially surge 7% to 11%, or more, from recent lows. My analysis suggests both the Small and Mid Cap Indexes may have moved excessively lower over the past 30+ trading days. They may be poised for a unique opportunity and a substantial price rally if the global markets continue to move away from extreme risk events. As the US Fed and global central banks position to combat inflation while war tensions build near Ukraine, I believe the US Small and Mid Cap Indexes are uniquely undervalued and ready for a potential move higher. The recent recovery in the US major indexes may be evidence of strong bullish price momentum underlying the US Major Indexes. I believe that foreign capital is moving into various US assets to avoid foreign market/currency risks. The US Small and Mid Cap Indexes seem like perfect opportunities for this capital deployment. IWM May Rally 12 to 14% - Targeting $238 to $240 This Weekly IWM chart highlights a support level near $191.00 and a recent Three River Morning Star bottom reversal pattern near $194.40. It also highlights the previous range-based trading and dual Pennant/Flag setups using shaded BLUE and YELLOW Rectangles. I believe IWM has a solid potential to rally back to near the $220 level before finding resistance (+7.25%). If this bullish price momentum continues, IWM may rally to levels above $238 to $240. The global markets may have recently focused too much on the US Fed and Global Central Banks while missing the underlying strength of the US economy. Consumers are still spending, and the US Fed has yet to make any substantial adjustments to rates or balance sheets. These recent lows may provide an excellent opportunity for traders to capitalize on a “reversion price move” soon. The only way to navigate and capitalize on these price swings is to stay focused on Technical Analysis and strategic opportunities for trades when they occur. WHAT TRADING STRATEGIES WILL HELP YOU TO NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, setups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture. We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.” Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting. WARNING: More Downside To Come Uncertainty abounds regarding the path of inflation and new FED policy. This has created a landscape of continued strong periods of distribution in the equity markets. If there are any bounces, they should be used to sell ‘risk assets’. This has been one of the worst starts to a calendar year in the history of the stock and bond markets. Chart Source: Zero Hedge Last Thursday, the reported inflation rate increased by 7.7 percent, the highest in forty years. Stocks tumble as red-hot inflation print pressures technology shares. Markets didn’t like this, which immediately moved them down. Bears are in control of the market, which can be observed from Friday’s trading session. The U.S. 10-year yield rose above 2% for the first time since August 2019 amid a broad Treasury-market selloff. It was driven by expectations for quicker FED interest-rate hikes to contain faster than predicted inflation. It takes at least two to three years to have any material impact on the economy. One sector is currently doing well, which is the oil sector. Cycle's analysis is applied to find the best stocks to invest in and the best sectors. The next sector we are monitoring is Gold/Silver. Crude oil prices are staying strong. There are a lot of geopolitical factors in play here. I think there's a risk premium on oil right now because of Russia. What The Heck is CPI? The Consumer Price Index, CPI, is the measure of changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. This is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation in households. Consumer Price Index Summary. Last Thursday, the inflation figures were released, confirming that everything is getting more expensive. It is up 7.5 percent versus last year. Mortgage rates are starting to rise. If you plan to buy a new home, this is the time to do it. These historically low interest rates will not last long. Should I Invest In Gold Today? Owning gold acts as a hedge against inflation as well as a good portfolio diversifier as it is a great store of value. Gold also provides financial cover during geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases. Conclusion: It seems the stock market may be on its last leg here. Big money flow has been coming out of the large-cap stocks while commodities have been rising. Commodities are typically one of the last assets to rally before the stock market top and start a bear market. I see all the signs, but we must wait for the price to confirm before taking action. We have seen this setup before in 2015/2016, also in 2018, and the market recovered and rallied dramatically from those levels.  What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

I've been paying close attention to Bonds as the global markets react to rising inflation and global central bank moves recently. The US Federal Reserve has yet to take any actions to raise rates, but we all know it will come at some point. Longer-term bonds are acting as if these risks are much more subdued than many traders/investors believe – which has me questioning if global central banks have overplayed the stimulus game? Why would traditional safe-haven assets fail to act in a manner that reflects current market risks like they would typically do? Why have precious metals failed to reflect these risks also properly? Is there something brewing in traders' minds that are muting or mitigating these traditional safe-haven assets? Bonds Continue To Slide After COVID Rally This table, reflecting the recent downward trend in Bonds, highlights the weakened safe-haven tendencies. These assets would generally present with rampant inflation and the possibility of multiple Fed rate increases. (Source: SeekingAlpha.com) Increasing uncertainty throughout the globe, and as inflation climbs to the highest levels since the mid-1970s and 1980s, – “where's the beef?” (to reference a 1980s Wendy's commercial phrase). This TLT Weekly chart shows how risks climbed when COVID hit in February 2020. Yet, take a look at how price has consolidated below $156 and has continued to trend lower over the past six months. After a brief move higher, to levels near the $147 to $155 level, TLT has moved decidedly lower over the past 6+ months. This downward price trend illustrates the diminishing fear levels as traders piled into the post-COVID rally phase. This move suggests traders believe inflation may be temporary or that the US Federal Reserve has room to raise rates without disrupting the global economy. I think the current premise and price trend in TLT vastly underestimates the amount of disruption a series of Fed rate hikes would cause the international markets. The US Federal Reserve will likely consider all options before taking an aggressive move to raise rates. Additionally, the US Fed may decide to allow foreign central banks to move more aggressively to raise rates while it decides to take a more measured approach to inflation. The key to future rate increases is how supply chains open up and how consumers continue to engage in economic activities. Any sudden shift by consumers, or further disruptions in supply for manufacturing and consumer staples/discretionary items, could prompt the Fed into taking aggressive actions. From where the Fed Funds Rates currently are, a move above 0.50% would reflect a +500% rate increase. This may prompt some type of “pop” in certain asset bubbles. (Source: St. Louis Fed) Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and Bond levels throughout 2022 into 2023 as any sudden shift away from current trends could spell trouble. Right now, Bonds are pricing in minimal risks – which may be a mistake. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now, and bonds can’t keep up with inflation and are more or less yield-less. The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions. What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends? Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. This may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals. I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

  Gold and the USDX reacted vigorously to the worrisome news concerning Eastern Europe. However, only the latter can be calm about its medium-term future. As geopolitical tensions uplift gold, silver, and mining stocks, they’re in rally mode each time a doom-and-gloom headline surfaces. However, while the ‘will they or won’t they’ saga commands investors’ attention, the USD Index continues to behave rationally. For example, while volatility has increased recently, the dollar basket has held firm. To explain, I wrote on Feb. 17: The USD Index is at its medium-term support line. All previous moves to / slightly below it were then followed by rallies, sometimes really big rallies, so we’re likely to see something like that once again. Such a rally would be the prefect trigger for the triangle-vertex-based reversal in gold and the following slide. Please see below: Furthermore, the USD Index’s recent pullback was far from a surprise. For example, I highlighted on numerous occasions that the greenback is nearing its weekly rising resistance line, and the price action has unfolded as I expected. Moreover, while overbought conditions resulted in a short-term breather, history shows that the USD Index eventually catches its second wind. To explain, I previously wrote: I marked additional situations on the chart below with orange rectangles – these were the recent cases when the RSI based on the USD Index moved from very low levels to or above 70. In all three previous cases, there was some corrective downswing after the initial part of the decline, but once it was over – and the RSI declined somewhat – the big rally returned and the USD Index moved to new highs. As a result, with the USD Index showcasing a reliable history of profound comebacks, higher highs should materialize over the medium term. Please see below: Just as the USD Index took a breather before its massive rally in 2014, it seems that we saw the same recently. This means that predicting higher gold prices (or those of silver) here is likely not a good idea. Continuing the theme, the eye in the sky doesn’t lie, and with the USDX’s long-term breakout clearly visible, the wind remains at the dollar’s back. Furthermore, dollar bears often miss the forest through the trees: with the USD Index’s long-term breakout gaining steam, the implications of the chart below are profound. While very few analysts cite the material impact (when was the last time you saw the USDX chart starting in 1985 anywhere else?), the USD Index has been sending bullish signals for years. Please see below: The bottom line? With my initial 2021 target of 94.5 already hit, the ~98-101 target is likely to be reached over the medium term (and perhaps quite soon). Mind, though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is fundamentally outperforming the Eurozone. The EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, and the relative performance is what really matters. In conclusion, the financial markets remain on Russia-Ukraine watch. While gold, silver, mining stocks, and the USD Index whipsaw on the news, the technical and fundamental backdrops support higher prices for the latter, not the former. Thus, while geopolitical tensions are always short-term bullish for the precious metals, the rush is often short-lived. As a result, the trios’ downtrends that began in late 2020 will likely resurface once the headline-driven market returns to normal. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  Not only won’t inflation end soon, it’s likely to remain high. Whether gold will be able to take advantage of it will depend, among others, on the Fed. Do you sometimes ask yourself when this will all end? I don’t mean the universe, nor our lives, nor even this year (c’mon, guys, it has just started!). I mean, of course, inflation. If only you weren’t in a coma last year, you would have probably noticed that prices had been surging recently. For instance, America finished the year with a shocking CPI annual rate of 7.1%, the highest since June 1982, as the chart below shows. Now, the key question is how much higher inflation could rise, or how persistent it could be. The consensus is that we will see a peak this year and subsequent cooling down, but to still elevated levels. This is the view I also hold. However, would I bet my collection of precious metals on it? I don’t know, as inflation could surprise us again, just as it did to most of the economists (but not me) last year. The risk is clearly to the upside. As always in economics, it’s a matter of supply and demand. There is even a joke that all you need to turn a parrot into an economist is to teach it to say ‘supply’ and ‘demand’. Funny, huh? When it comes to the demand side, both the money supply growth and the evolution of personal saving rate implies some cooling down of inflation rate. Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, the broad money supply peaked in February 2021. Assuming a one-year lag between the money supply and price level, inflation rate should reach its peak somewhere in the first quarter of this year. There is one important caveat here: the pace of money supply growth has not returned to the pre-pandemic level, but it stabilized at about 13%, double the rate seen at the end of 2019. Inflation was then more or less at the Fed’s target of 2%, so without constraining money supply growth, the US central bank couldn’t beat inflation. As the chart above also shows, the personal saving rate has returned to the pre-pandemic level of 7-8%. It means that the bulk of pent-up demand has already materialized, which should also help to ease inflation in the future. However, not all of the ‘forced savings’ have already entered the market. Thus, personal consumption expenditures are likely to be elevated for some time, contributing to boosted inflation. Regarding supply factors, although some bottlenecks have eased, the disruptions have not been fully resolved. The spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and regional lockdowns in China could prolong the imbalances between booming demand and constrained supply. Other contributors to high inflation are rising producer prices, increasing house prices and rents, strong inflation expectations (see the chart below), and labor shortages combined with fast wage growth. The bottom line is that, all things considered – in particular high level of demand, continued supply issues, and de-anchored inflation expectations – I forecast another year of elevated inflation, but probably not as high as in 2021. After reaching a peak in a few months, the inflation rate could ease to, let’s say, around 4% in December, if we are lucky. Importantly, the moderate bond yields also suggest that inflation will ease somewhat later in 2022. What does it mean for the gold market? Well, I don’t have good news for the gold bulls. Gold loves high and accelerating inflation the most. Indeed, as the chart below shows, gold peaks coincided historically with inflation heights. The most famous example is the inflation peak in early 1980, when gold ended its impressive rally and entered into a long bearish trend. The 2011 top also happened around the local inflationary peak. The only exception was the 2005 peak in inflation, when gold didn’t care and continued its bullish trend. However, this was partially possible thanks to the decline in the US dollar, which seems unlikely to repeat in the current macroeconomic environment, in which the Fed is clearly more hawkish than the ECB or other major central banks. The relatively strong greenback won’t help gold shine. Surely, disinflation may turn out to be transitory and inflation may increase again several months later. Lower inflation implies a less aggressive Fed, which should be supportive of gold prices. However, investors should remember that the US central bank will normalize its monetary policy no matter the inflation rate. Since the Great Recession, inflation has been moderate, but the Fed has tightened its stance eventually, nevertheless. Hence, gold may experience a harsh moment when inflation peaks. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

Even at the last important low (US$$1,750) on December 15th, 2021, the sentiment was still awful as the sector had become the most hated asset class. Now fast-forward, gold has been successfully breaking out of its multi month triangle and keeps sprinting higher. The bulls currently are bending the daily and weekly Bollinger Bands to the upside, and seasonality is still supportive.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of February 20th, 2022.Looking at the weekly chart, it appears that gold not only broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern, but also out of a large inverse head and shoulder pattern. It’s not a textbook head and shoulder, but worthwhile noting. A measured move projection could theoretically take gold towards US$2,125! However, the monthly Bollinger Band, sitting at around US$ 1,975, might be a much more realistic target for the ongoing move. As you might remember, the zone between US$1,950 to US$1,975 is very strong resistance. We would not rule out a short-lived overshoot towards US$,2000, though.Overall, the weekly chart is not yet overbought and looks bullish. Hence, the rally has very good chances to continue for a few more weeks.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.As expected, the breakout above US$1,840 to US$1,850 has unleashed enough energy to quickly push gold prices towards the round psychological number of US$1,900. Fortunately, the daily stochastic has transformed its overboughtness into the rare “embedded status”, where both signal lines are sitting above 80 for more than three days in a row. Hence, the uptrend is locked-in and shorting this market would be fighting the uptrend.Of course, given the uncertain and complex geopolitical situation, events can and likely will strongly influence gold over the coming days and weeks. Speaking from a technical point of you, any pullback towards the breakout zone around US$1,845 would be a buying opportunity. However, prices below US$1,875 would already be a surprise in the short-term. On the contrary, it’s much more likely that gold will continue its run to at least US$1,930 over the coming days.In summary, the daily chart is bullish. Especially the bullish embedded stochastic oscillator likely will not allow any larger pullback, but rather a consolidation around US$1,900. Watch those two signal lines. Only if one of them would be dropping below 80on a daily close, the bull run might be over!GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) in US-Dollar, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.GDX, daily chart as of February 20th, 2022.Gold & gold related mining stocks often stabilize your portfolio during uncertain times and do act as a hedge. While the stock market continued its dive due to the crisis in Ukraine and the potential interest rate turnaround in the US, the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up more than 21.5% since its low in mid of December. Over the last two weeks, the leading gold mining stocks recorded some of their best days in the last 12 months. Last week, Barrick Gold ($GOLD) jumped up more than 7% due to good earnings, a dividend increase, and a new share repurchase program. Some smaller gold stocks like Sabina Gold & Silver ($SGSVF) went up even more (+15% Friday, 11th).Now that gold is on the rise, it’s time for the beaten down and undervalued mining stocks to catch up. Usually, it starts with the big senior produces like Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines ($AEM) and Newmont Corporation ($NEM), then the juniors like for example Victoria Gold Corp. ($VITFF) join and finally, the explorer and developers literally explode higher.However, the GDX has nearly reached its downtrend line as well as the 38.2% retracement of the whole corrective wave since August 2020. Hence, the big miners are running into string resistance and might need to consolidate soon.At the same time, note, that silver has been lagging. Silver always lags most of the time, but in the final stage of sector wide rally it suddenly passes all the other metals and shots up nearly vertically. That also typically is the sign that the rally in the sector is coming to an end. Obviously, we have not yet seen any strong silver days. Therefore, silver actually confirms that the sector has more room and time to run higher!Conclusion: Bullish momentum remains strongOverall, gold continues to look promising here as the bullish momentum remains strong. Hence, Gold is probably on the way towards US$1,950 and US$1,975, with a slight chance for an overshot to US$2,000. But of course, given the rather overbought daily chart, the risk/reward is not that good anymore. Silver and many of the smaller mining stocks, however, might still offer a chance to play the ongoing rally over the next few weeks. Once gold tops out in spring, expect a big pullback. Maybe even back towards the higher trending 200-day moving average (currently at US$1,808) at some point in midsummer. But that is all somewhere in the future. For now, the bullish momentum remains strong.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can also subscribe to our free newsletter.Disclosure: Midas Touch Consulting and members of our team are invested in Reyna Gold Corp. These statements are intended to disclose any conflict of interest. They should not be misconstrued as a recommendation to purchase any share. This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting.By Florian Grummes|February 20th, 2022|Tags: $GDXJ, Barrick Gold, GDX, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold chartbook, gold fundamentals, Newmont Corporation, precious metals, Reyna Gold, Sabina Gold & Silver, Silver, silver bull, US-Dollar, Victoria Gold|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running his own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.

Last week, BTC repeated the dynamics of the first ten days of February. The rate strengthened on Monday-Tuesday, and on Wednesday, it exceeded the level of $44,800. Then on Thursday, the price began to fall sharply in unison with stock indices. The decrease in risky assets was caused by the growing tension around Ukraine, where the situation is becoming tenser. On Friday, Bitcoin continued to fall, briefly dropping below the round level of $40,000. This mark was broken on Sunday, and BTC tested the next support level at $38,000. The situation is aggravated by the increase in cryptocurrency sales by miners. As a result, the bears may try to push the price to $36,000 and even $33,000. Today, on hopes of a political de-escalation, BTCUSD is up 2.5%, trying to cling to levels above $39,000. I must say that bitcoin has lost all the growth of February over the past week. In addition to the upcoming Fed rate hike, BTC has been hit by growing geopolitical risks. In addition to this, the founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, noted that he sees early signs of the onset of crypto winter. This spurred crypto sales among retail investors over the weekend. However, ETHUSD is up 5.3% on Monday, recouping Sunday's decline and continuing to struggle to close the third month in the red. Overall, Bitcoin was down 9.2% over the past week, ending it at around $38,300. Ethereum lost 9.7%, other leading altcoins from the top ten also sank: from 3.3% (Avalanche) to 11% (Cardano). The total capitalization of the crypto market fell by 7% in a week, to $1.82 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index fell 0.7% to 40%, due to less weakening of altcoins. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index lost another 2 points to 25 on Monday, returning to the extreme fear territory.

GBPUSD tests resistance The sterling edged higher after January’s retail sales beat expectations. The recent pause has been an opportunity for the bulls to accumulate. A break above 1.3640 would signal solid buying after previous failed attempts. The daily resistance at 1.3750 would be the next hurdle. Its breach could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. 1.3560 is the immediate support. And 1.3490 at the lower end of the horizontal consolidation is the second line of defense in case the pair needs to attract more support. USDCAD awaits breakout The Canadian dollar tanked after disappointing retail sales in December. The US counterpart is still struggling below the supply zone around 1.2800. A close above this daily resistance could propel the pair to last December’s high at 1.2950, a prerequisite for a bullish continuation in the medium-term. The current sideways action is a sign of indecision. 1.2640 is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. A bearish breakout would bring the greenback to a previous low at 1.2560. EURJPY struggles for support The Japanese yen rallies amid growing risk aversion across the board. The euro continues to shed gains from the surge earlier this month. A fall below 131.90 triggered profit-taking, and the latest rally came out to be a dead cat bounce after it was capped by this support-turned-resistance. A break below 130.40 (which sits over the 30-day moving average) shows fragility in market sentiment and would cause another round of sell-off. 129.20 at the base of the bullish impetus would be the next support.

The geopolitical momentum of the escalation/truce situation around Ukraine strikingly has its weekly cycles. Harsh rhetoric seems to peak at the end of the week, followed by the weekend’s relief when the sides look for ways to negotiate, giving a breath of air to global markets early in the week. This week, the same pattern applies with demand for EM currencies and European indices returning to their starting positions before Friday’s collapse. The announced talks between the Russian and US foreign ministers and the chances of a summit between Biden and Putin bring back hopes of a peaceful resolution. However, it is worth realising that the situation remains fragile, and so far, with each new cycle of this momentum, the present situation has become more dramatic. And this is visible in the dynamics of the European indices, where the DAX formed a double top in January and in February began to churn in line with the geopolitical background, maintaining a downward bias and approaching a critical support level that has been in place since last May. The pressure on the DAX to consolidate under the 15,000 mark is occurring on two fronts at once. Firstly, geopolitical tensions are reducing the traction in risky assets of the European region. In addition, fears of energy supply disruptions in the EU due to Russia form the background, with high oil and gas prices holding back the economic recovery. Secondly, the monetary policy outlook continues to be reassessed. ECB officials are talking more and more confidently about a rate hike this year and leaving the door open for such a move as early as September. If the bears manage to push the DAX below the nine-month support, we might see an acceleration of the corrective pullback that could take the index down to 14000 within the next couple of weeks. If the politicians’ rhetoric doesn’t seem to be easing, the next target for a retracement might be the 13000-area, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the extremes of March 2020 and November 2021.

S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos did break down over the weekend, but the anticipated risk-on rebound fizzled out a bit too fast – as said on Friday, the bears have the upper hand now. Summary S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

USDJPY double top risk increases with a mildly negative candle on the weekly chart. Yen benefitting from safe haven status as war concerns increase. EURJPY had collapsed almost 300 pips at one stage on Friday from Thursday's high, in the flight to the safe haven Yen. The pair remains in a 1 year sideways trend with no other pattern to rely on. CADJPY remains very volatile in the 5 month sideways trend, making it difficult to hold a trade for a more than a few hours. Certainly cannot hold a trade over night. Update daily at 06:30 GMT Today's Analysis. USDJPY now has huge double top risk with a high for the day at the January high. If you did try a short, we broke first support at 115.70/60 to target 115.30/20 with losses as far as 115.00. On the open, holding support at 115.28/25 allows a recovery to resistance at 115.65/70. A break above 115.75 can target 116.00/10 before a retest of 116.20/30. For scalpers we have support at 115.30/20 & 114.93/88. Risking 20 pips to try to scalp a 30-40 pip profit is probably the best strategy I can suggest in these volatile conditions. Further losses however target 114.58/53 with strong support at 114.30/20. EURJPY levels for scalpers in the large, longer term sideways trend are: 131.20/30 & 131.95/132.05, 132.55/65 & 133.05/15. On the downside look out for some support at 130.70/60 & what should be strong support at 130.15/05. Longs need stops below 129.90. CADJPY should have support at 9040/30 & resistance at 9100/9110. In the middle we have a minor level at 9065/70 so I would scalp these levels if the opportunity arises. A break above 9120 can retest last week's high at 9160/70. A break below 9020 targets 8990/80, perhaps as far as 8930/20. To subscribe to this report please visit daytradeideas.co.uk or email jason@daytradeideas.co.uk No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and opinions expressed may be subject to change without notice. Estimates and projections set forth herein are based on assumptions that may not be correct or otherwise realised. All reports and information are designed for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed is deemed to constitute an offer or invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any security or any option, futures or other related derivatives.

Pinterest shares rise over 12% in the premarket on Friday. PINS stock surges down to an earnings beat on the top and bottom lines. Pinterest shares remain in a long-term downtrend. Pinterest (PINS) reported strong earnings after the close Thursday night that saw the stock move up over 18% in afterhours trading. So far, most of those gains are holding early on Friday with PINS at $27.70. This represents a gain of 13% from Thursday's close. Pinterest Stock News Earnings per share came in at $0.49 versus consensus estimates for $0.45. Revenue hit $846.7 million versus consensus estimates of $827.2 million. The shares immediately jumped on the news. (https://www.fxstreet.com/news) "We took important steps in 2021 with the launch of our foundational technology to deliver a video-first publishing platform. And, I'm proud to say that for the first time, we surpassed $2 billion in revenue for the year — growing 52% over the previous year — and reached our first full-year of GAAP profitability," said Ben Silbermann, CEO and co-founder of Pinterest. PINS was set up for outperformance and the risk-reward was clearly to the upside. PINS stock had closed the regular session on Thursday down over 10% as the read-across from Facebook saw investors dump the stock. (https://www.fxstreet.com/markets/equities) Just like Amazon, a surprise to the upside offered a better risk-reward profile, and so it proved with investors rushing to cover positions. Pinterest Stock Forecast Pinterest remains mired in a long-term downtrend. Paypal (PYPL) had been rumoured to be in discussion to acquire PINS back in October of last year. PINS shares had spiked to $65 on the rumour, but supposedly Paypal shareholders resisted and nothing ever happened. This led PINS shares on a steady downweard path ever since. The shares are down nearly 70% in the last year and 26% already this year. This move does not really do much to turn that trend around in our view. The big damage was done in the break of $32.34. That remains the bullish pivot. The first support is at $24.08. Pinterest (PINS) chart, (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/chart) 20 hourly

USDCHF tests daily support The Swiss franc surges as the US-Russia stalemate boosts demand for safe haven assets. Consecutive drops below 0.9220 and then 0.9180 suggest that sellers have taken control. The greenback is heading towards January’s double bottom around 0.9110. A break below this key floor would trigger a deeper correction towards the psychological level of 0.9000. The RSI’s oversold situation may cause a temporary rebound. The support-turned-resistance at 0.9220 is the level to break to give the bulls any hope of recovery. XAGUSD bounces higher Bullion rallies over ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Silver gained momentum after a break above the supply zone at 23.90. A brief fallback found support over 23.10 which indicates solid buying interest. The price is grinding up along a rising trendline and sentiment remains upbeat as long as it stays above the congestion area near the trendline and 23.60. January’s peak at 24.70 is the target when volatility picks up again. A bullish breakout could trigger a broader reversal in the weeks to come. UK 100 struggles for support The FTSE 100 tumbles as risk appetite slips across the board. The bulls’ latest effort to push beyond 7630 turned out to be futile. A break below 7500 suggests a lack of commitment and weighs on short-term sentiment. Intraday traders have switched sides and look to fade the next bounce towards the former support. A dip below 7430 has opened the door to 7330 as the next target. Further down, the daily support at 7240 would be a major level to keep the uptrend intact in the medium term.

The beginning of Monday in Russia was quite positive: the ruble strengthened, reacting to the announcement of the summit of the leaders of Russia and the United States, mediated by France. The situation deteriorated sharply after the heads of the DPR and LPR turned to Putin with a request to recognize the independence of the republics. Over the weekend, the situation in the LDNR deteriorated sharply: on Friday, the evacuation of citizens to the Russian Federation was announced. Towards the evening, President Putin held an extraordinary extended meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on the recognition of the LPR and DPR. Oil quotes rose noticeably on Monday, reacting to the likely imposition of sanctions against Russia, the world's leading oil producer. Restrictions may lead to interruptions in the supply of raw materials, further exacerbating its market shortage. Prices for Brent oil updated the highs of 2014, adding three dollars, and by the end of the day rose above $97 per barrel. Low-liquid trades aggravated the situation due to the holiday in the USA. While Europe admits that it cannot do without energy and resources from Russia, the banking sector is under attack. Trading volumes on Monday were record-breaking, which indicates the withdrawal of large players from the market. It is also worth paying attention to retailers and technology companies, which may find it difficult to work abroad or import goods and technologies. These sectors will show the most volatility depending on how events unfold. The current situation is tightening financial conditions for Russian companies, destabilizing markets and reducing business predictability. The volatility of the ruble and the closure of the Russian market for global capital will hurt the economy, probably sending it into decline in the coming quarters. In the long term, this threatens to reduce growth potential, which is already lower than that of many developed countries. Such conditions translate for the population into a drop in living standards through a decrease in real incomes or (at best) a dramatic slowdown in their growth.

Bitcoin, best in play   The Covid environment brought an additional variant risk factor to the table, especially when it comes to investor psychology. Our last weekly chart book publication made a case for positioning one’s risk hedge plays this year when equity markets most likely trade in a volatile sideways range. We also spoke of a proper wealth preservation strategy, holding both bitcoin and gold within a hedged risk reduction approach for your monies. With our primary focus on risk, the next question is allocation size between bitcoin and gold. As mentioned in the intro, it feels intuitively natural to have significant exposure to the gold side from a cycle history. Yet, insurance seems essential at this time, and as such, we tend to be a bit more aggressive towards bitcoin allocations. Bitcoin, daily chart, not just yet: Bitcoin, daily chart as of February 22nd, 2022. The daily chart reflects the common notion of bitcoin trading alongside PMI numbers and the market as a whole. With the recent break of the modest bounce from the US$33,500 level up leg (yellow up-channel), no immediate low-risk entries for longer-term exposure seems in play.   Bitcoin, weekly chart, great setup, bitcoin, best in play: Bitcoin, weekly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Nevertheless, we find now zooming out to the weekly time frame a quite interesting entry zone (white box) between the levels US$30,000 to US$34,000. We identified by stacking multiple edges that an entry near US$31,800 would provide the most low-risk entry profile. However, it will depend on how prices will arrive at these levels. As such, we encourage you to check back in our free Telegram channel.  There we post-entries, and exits for educational purposes in real-time. Bitcoin, monthly chart, amazing potential: Bitcoin, monthly chart as of February 22nd, 2022. Where matters become more transparent, and our headlines supported, is at a view of the monthly chart. The first leg up was nothing short of a 1,600% advancement. Now we have been trading for a year in a bullish up sloping sideways channel. With a possible entry at the lows of this channel, a long-term investment provides for a stellar risk/reward-ratio. The second legs are typically longer than the first legs! But that is not all; bitcoin has a higher probability of four-leg moves versus three-leg moves. Consequently, this trade could turn out to be highly profitable after some time. One aspect of risk is the relationship between the size of a potential down move of price and the size of a likely up move. We find bitcoins’ upward potential much more significant than gold for its fundamental characteristics and stellar outperforming history percentagewise. Bitcoin, best in play: Summing it up, bitcoin might not be at its lowest retracement levels yet. Still, its powerful potential in risk/reward-ratio and as an overall risk hedge makes it best in play. We share a low-risk cost averaging in strategy in our free Telegram channel. We find that allocation of funds should be more dominant towards bitcoin. In addition, holding some cash as much as money is deflating can still be a good strategy. Cash is king to purchase desired goods and vehicles, especially when those are even more depressed.    Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community. If you like to get regular updates on precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you can also subscribe to our free newsletter. Disclosure: This article and the content are for informational purposes only and do not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone. They do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Midas Touch Consulting. By Korbinian Koller|February 22nd, 2022|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin bounce, bitcoin consolidation, Bitcoin correction, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, DeFi, Gold, Gold bullish, low risk, NASDAQ, quad exit, S&P 500, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments

Losing for the sixth day in a row, bitcoin is approaching a retest of the intermediate round level of 35,000, near which buyers became more active at the end of last month. A further decline could open a direct road to the 30,000 area, where the coin was bought back twice in 2021. Given the changed macroeconomic conditions and the pressure on risky assets, will the crypto remain as interesting at these same levels? Cryptocurrencies once again fell under geopolitical pressure, although a relatively small decline was caused by the absence of major US players due to a holiday in the US. And again, risky assets, from stocks to digital currencies, collapsed with the aggravation of the situation around Ukraine, where investors fear conflict in Eastern Europe. Against this background, one of the world's largest hedge funds, Man Group, called bitcoin a risky asset, as indicated by the growing correlation of BTC with the Nasdaq stock index. Black Swan author Nassim Taleb criticized bitcoin as a hedge, calling it "the perfect game for losers" in an environment of low interest rates. Huobi co-founder Du Jun expects bitcoin to rise to new highs no earlier than 2025, basing his assumptions on halving-related price cycles. Bitcoin was down 3.1% on Monday, ending the day near $37,100, continuing to drop moderately on Tuesday morning to $36,700. Ethereum lost 3%, falling back to $2,500, while other top-ten altcoins also mostly sank: from 4.9 % (Binance Coin) to 7.1% (Solana). The exception was Terra, which posted a 3.8% increase. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell by 7.3% over the day, to $1.66 trillion. The Bitcoin dominance index rose from 41.7% to 42.2% due to a sharper decline in altcoins. The fear and greed index lost 5 points to 20, deepening into a state of "extreme fear."

Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 15/2/2022 Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,621 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,979 contracts and an increase in short positions by 358 contracts. Growth in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound and the New Zealand dollar. Decrease in total net positions occurred in the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Swiss franc. In the event of a Russian invasion to Ukraine, markets would move into risk-off sentiment. This means that investors would sell risk assets, which include stock indices, and shift their resources into assets that are considered as safe havens in such situations, which include US government bonds and gold. In currency terms, this means that the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in particular could then appreciate in such a situation. Commodity currencies (especially AUD, NZD) might weaken. The positions of speculators in individual currencies The total net positions of large speculators are shown in table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short. Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators Date USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD JPY CAD CHF Feb 15, 2022 35386 47581 2237 -86694 -9333 -66162 12170 -9715 Feb 08, 2022 33765 38842 -8545 -85741 -10366 -59148 14886 -9399 Feb 01, 2022 34571 29716 -23605 -79829 -11698 -60640 18264 -8239 Jan 25, 2022 36861 31560 -7763 -83273 -10773 -68273 12317 -8796 Jan 18, 2022 36434 24584 -247 -88454 -8331 -80879 7492 -10810 Jan 11, 2022 37892 6005 -29166 -91486 -8604 -87525 -7376 -7660 Note: The explanation of COT methodolody is at the end of this report. Notes: Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. ​The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.   Detailed analysis of selected currencies   Explanations:   Purple line and histogram: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend. It is the indicator r_COT Large Speculators (by Kramsken) in www.tradingview.com. Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.​ We show moving average SMA 100 (blue line) and EMA 50 (orange line) on daily charts. ​Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com. The source of numerical data is www.myfxbook.com Euro   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 702047 217899 170318 47581 1949 -1074 -9813 8739 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 700098 218973 180131 38842 14667 5410 -3716 9126 Bullish Feb 01, 2022 685431 213563 183847 29716 2479 155 1999 -1844 Weak bullish Jan 25, 2022 682952 213408 181848 31560 -8930 1507 -5469 6976 Bullish Jan 18, 2022 691882 211901 187317 24584 9589 7540 -11039 18579 Bullish Jan 11, 2022 682293 204361 198356 6005 4075 5288 -2271 7559 Bullish         Total change 23829 18826 -30309 49135     Figure 1: The euro and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the EURUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 47,581 contracts last week, up by 8,739 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,074 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 9,813 contracts. Total net speculators positions have increased by 49,135 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators closing 30,309 short positions and adding 18,826 long positions. This data suggests continued bullish sentiment for the euro. However, the rising open interest, which increased by 1,949 contracts in the last week, shows the opposite, as the euro fell down last week and this decline is supported by the rising number of open interest contracts. So more bearish traders were in the market. So we have conflicting information here. The euro weakened slightly last week on fears of an escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Long-term resistance: 1.1461 – 1.15 Support: 1.1280 - 1.1300. Next support is near 1.1220 - 1.1240. A strong support is in 1.1120-1.1140. The British Pound   date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 195302 50151 47914 2237 -2646 5442 -5340 10782 Bullish Feb 08, 2022 197948 44709 53254 -8545 13941 15112 52 15060 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 184007 29597 53202 -23605 1967 -7069 8773 -15842 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 182040 36666 44429 -7763 -1194 -3094 4422 -7516 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 183234 39760 40007 -247 -17259 9254 -19665 28919 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 200493 30506 59672 -29166 486 4526 -5479 10005 Weak bearish         Total change -4705 24171 -17237 41408     Figure 2: The GBP and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the GBPUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached 2,237 contracts last week, up by 10,782 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions of 5,442 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 5,340 contracts. Total net positions have increased by 41,408 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exiting 17,237 short positions and adding 24,171 long positions. This data suggests bullish sentiment for the pound. Open interest, which fell by 2,646 contracts last week, is indicating that the bullish price action that occurred in the pound last week was not supported by volume and therefore it is weak. Risk off sentiment in US equities could have a negative effect on the Pound as well as the Euro, which could then send the Pound towards support which is at 1.3380. Long-term resistance: 1.3620-1.3640. Next resistance is near 1.3680 – 1.3750. Support: 1.3490 – 1.3520. A next support is near 1.3320 – 1.3380 and then mainly in the zone near 1.3200. The Australian dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions change Open Interest change Long change Short change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 192578 11692 98386 -86694 -3825 -5631 -4678 -953 Bearish Feb 08, 2022 196403 17323 103064 -85741 -510 -1512 4400 -5912 Bearish Feb 01, 2022 196913 18835 98664 -79829 6893 3714 270 3444 Weak bearish Jan 25, 2022 190020 15121 98394 -83273 8884 6070 889 5181 Weak bearish Jan 18, 2022 181136 9051 97505 -88454 -4317 -3332 -6364 3032 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 185453 12383 103869 -91486 5346 -249 1871 -2120 Bearish         Total change 12471 -940 -3612 2672     Figure 3: The AUD and COT positions of large speculators on a weekly chart and the AUDUSD on D1 Total net speculator positions last week reached -86,694 contracts, down 953 contracts from the previous week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions of 5,631 contracts and a decrease in short positions of 4,678 contracts. This data suggests continued bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar, which is confirmed by the downtrend. Total net positions have increased by 2,672 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators exit of 3,612 short contracts while exiting 940 long contracts at the same time. However, last week saw a decrease in open interest of 3,825 contracts. This means that the upward price action that occurred last week was weak in terms of volume because new money did not flow into the market. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the international geopolitical situation. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, we can expect it to weaken especially on the AUDUSD pair and also the AUDJPY. Long-term resistance: 0.7200-0.7250 and especially near 0.7270-0.7310. Long-term support: 0.7085-0.7120. A strong support is near 0.6960 – 0.6990. The New Zealand dollar   Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Specs Net positions Change Open Interest Change Long Change Short Change Net Positions Sentiment Feb 15, 2022 64105 24923 34256 -9333 9228 7755 6722 1033 Weak bearish Feb 08, 2022 54877 17168 27534 -10366 -3590 -2037 -3369 1332 Weak bearish Feb 01, 2022 58467 19205 30903 -11698 5151 3257 4182 -925 Bearish Jan 25, 2022 53316 15948 26721 -10773 8589 4336 6778 -2442 Bearish Jan 18, 2022 44727 11612 19943 -8331 2661 652 379 273 Weak bearish Jan 11, 2022 42066 10960 19564 -8604 1764 1543 1302 241 Weak bearish         Celková změna 23803 15506 15994 -488     Figure 4: The NZD and the position of large speculators on a weekly chart and the NZDUSD on D1 The total net positions of speculators reached a negative value last week - 9,333 contracts, having increased by 1,033 contracts compared to the previous week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 7,755 contracts and an increase in short positions by 6,722 contracts. This data suggests that the bearish sentiment for the New Zealand Dollar continues, but has started to weaken over the past week. Total net positions have declined by 488 contracts over the past 6 weeks. This change is due to speculators adding 15,994 short positions and adding 15,506 long positions. Open interest rose significantly last week, increasing by 9,228 contracts. The rise in the NZDUSD price action that occurred last week is therefore supported by volume and therefore the move was strong. The reason for the NZD strengthening last week is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to raise interest rates to 1% on Feb 23, 2022. However, if the conflict in Ukraine escalates further, the NZDUSD could more likely weaken. The reason for the NZDUSD's decline from a technical analysis perspective could also be that the NZDUSD price has reached horizontal resistance and also the upper downtrend line from the daily chart. Long-term resistance: 0.6700 – 0.6740 and then 0.6850 – 0.6890. Long-term support: 0.6590-0.6600 and the next support is at 0.6500 – 0.6530. Explanation to the COT report The COT report shows the positions of major participants in the futures markets. Futures contracts are derivatives and are essentially agreements between two parties to exchange an underlying asset for a predetermined price on a predetermined date. They are standardised, specifying the quality and quantity of the underlying asset. They are traded on an exchange so that the total volume of these contracts traded is known.   Open interest: open interest is the sum of all open futures contracts (i.e. the sum of short and long contracts) that exist on a given asset. OI increases when a new futures contract is created by pairing a buyer with a seller. The OI decreases when an existing futures contract expires at a given expiry time or by settlement. Low or no open interest means that there is no interest in the market. High open interest indicates high activity and traders pay attention to this market. A rising open interest indicates that there is demand for the currency. That is, a rising OI indicates a strong current trend. Conversely, a weakening open interest indicates that the current trend is not strong. Open Interest Price action Interpretation Notes Rising Rising Strong bullish market New money flow in the particular asset, more bulls entered the market which pushes the price up. The trend is strong. Rising Falling Strong bearish market Price falls, more bearish traders entered the market which pushes the price down. The trend is strong. Falling Rising Weak bullish market Price is going up but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures contracts expire or are closed. The trend is weak. Falling Falling Weak bearish market Price is going down, but new money do not flow into the market. Existing futures expire or are closed, the trend is weak.   Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument. Traders should try to trade in the direction of these large speculators. The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week. The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment. When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values ​​of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal. The COT data are usually reported every Friday and they show the status on Tuesday of the week. Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

S&P 500 is waking up to fresh European news, and holds up well. There is no panic upswing in gold and silver, but crude oil and natural gas are up the most. As the U.S. markets are to open following yesterday‘s Washington‘s Birthday holiday, let‘s bring up the key details of yesterday‘s analysis: (…) S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds for all the recent (and still to come) deterioration, will probably rebound a little next. Value already retraced part of Friday‘s decline – it‘s just tech that didn‘t yet react to the Treasuries reprieve. Good to have taken short profits off the table. The table is set for S&P 500 to rise, and for bonds to rally somewhat. And that wouldn‘t be the result of war tensions lifting up Treasuries, gold and oil. Red hot inflation, decelerating growth and compressing yield curve are a challenging environment, and the odds of a 50bp Mar rate hike are overwhelming, but the Fed‘s balance sheet is still rising – now within spitting distance of $9T. Sure they will take on inflation, but I continue to think that by autumn they would be forced to reverse course, and start easing. Fresh stimulus after markets protest during 1H 2022? Would be helpful for the midterms... The consumer isn‘t in a great shape as the confidence data reveal – and that‘s also reflected in the direction of discretionaries vs. staples. Inflation is pinching, and the pressure on the Fed to act, is on – its credibility is being challenged. Food inflation is high, and seeing food at home prices rising this much, is as surefire marker of coming recession as yield curve inversion is. And yield differentials are flattening around the world – quite a few central banks are more ahead in the tightening path than the Fed. Economy slowing down, stock market correction far from over (yes, in spite of the coming rebound, I‘m looking for lower lows still), and precious metals upleg underway – yes, underway, and especially our gold profits can keep rising - as I wrote on Friday: (…) With gold at $1,900 again and silver approaching $24, copper‘s fate is also brightening – the miners‘ continued outperformance is a very good sign. With crude oil taking a breather, the inflationary pressures aren‘t at least increasing, but don‘t look for the Bullard or other statements to defeat inflation – I‘m standing by the 4-5% official rate CPI data for 2022 (discussed in yesterday‘s summary). CPI might turn out even a full percentage point higher – depends upon the hedonics and substitution massaging. What a long quote – let‘s update it with the premarket action. S&P 500 is still waiting with its potential upsing, dollar has gone nowhere really, and precious metals look like having a bright day today. The crude oil upswing shows that markets don‘t like the geopolitical news, and are likely to behave in a risk-off way of late (Treasuries, gold and oil up benefiting most). The internals of today‘s stock market action would be telling – I recently got an interesting question touching also upon rates and real estate: Q: I read your most recent newsletter with great interest: 1. You think the Fed would start to ease this fall? In your opinion, how long would that last?  Midterm would be done soon there after so would it be a quick few months then revert back to higher rates? 2. I’m asking question #1 as it would impact real estate. 3. You anticipate a “temporary” rise in the S&P this week? Are you thinking just a few days? I noticed 10 yr is going down. A: Thank you for asking. I'll take 1 & 2 in one go - I think they would change course latest autumn. So, now hawkish and raising, then turning to easing before midterms. Let's see first the damage this tightening does, and the degree to which they then turn dovish. As regards real estate, it's slowing down, homebuilders, XLRE... Headwinds would be stiffening, rates are eating into mortgages, but those ZIP codes where immigration into is high, would do best - but the overall, total real estate isn't an appealing proposition. When markets open, there is likely to be a little SPX rally off oversold readings. Sure, they can get more oversold - that's the way it goes during bearish episodes, which is why I'm not long. The trend for now is to the downside, so I would keep predominantly looking and taking opportunities to short. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 caught a little buying interest going into the long weekend – better days though look to be coming. Not a monstrous rally, but still an upswing. Credit Markets HYG is indeed basing, and will help stocks move higher next. LQD and TLT are already rising, and there is still somewhat more to come. Bonds have simply deteriorated too fast in 2022, and need a breather. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals fireworks continue – we‘re getting started, and $1,920 is the next stop. Kiss of life from the bond market reprieve comes next, on top of all the other factors I‘ve talked about recently. Crude Oil Crude oil is fairly well bid, but the war jitters are helping it out (as in staving off a bit deeper correction). As both oil and base metals are rising, inflation isn‘t likely to slow down (perhaps later in summer?) - black gold‘s uptrend isn‘t over really. Copper Copper keeps going sideways in a volatile fashion, and can be counted on to break higher – inflationary pressures aren‘t abating, and outweigh the slowing economy. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos stopped breaking down today, and the price action smacks of joining in the modest risk-on upswing, as unbelievable as it sounds. Summary Yesterday‘s summary is valid also today – S&P 500 appears on the verge of trying to swing higher, and credit markets would be leading the charge as tech finally turns. Value had trouble declining some more on Friday already. Stock market upswing though wouldn‘t throw the precious metals bulls off balance – not too many weeks have passed since I was at the turn of the year predicting that gold (and silver with miners implied) would be the bullish surprise of 2022 – and for all the talk and preemtive tightening in the credit markets, we haven‘t yet seen the Fed move. Anyway, such a lag in moving the Fed funds rate higher, is normal these decades – we are a long way from the early 1980s when the delay between say 2-year Treasury and Fed funds rate move was some 2 months. Crude oil is likewise going to keep rising, and the same goes naturally for copper following in the footsteps. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

  The current military tensions and the Fed’s sluggishness favor gold bulls, but not all events are positive for the yellow metal. What should we be aware of? It may be quiet on the Western Front, but quite the opposite on the Eastern Front. Russia has accumulated well over 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine and makes provocations practically every day, striving for war more and more clearly. Last week, shelling was reported on Ukraine’s front line and Russia carried out several false flag operations. According to Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, “the evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion.” Meanwhile, President Biden said: “We have reason to believe they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in. Every indication we have is they're prepared to go into Ukraine and attack Ukraine.” Of course, what politicians say should always be taken with a pinch of salt, but it seems that the situation has gotten serious and the risk of Russian invasion has increased over recent days.   Implications for Gold What does the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, the last week was definitely bullish for the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, the price of gold (London P.M. Fix) rallied over the past few days from $1,849 to $,1894, the highest level since June 2021; And he gold futures have even jumped above $1,900 for a while! Part of that upward move was certainly driven by geopolitical risks related to the assumed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is because gold is a safe-haven asset in which investors tend to park their money in times of distress. It’s worth remembering that not all geopolitical events are positive for gold, and when they are, their impact is often short-lived. Hence, if Russia invades Ukraine, the yellow metal should gain further, but if uncertainty eases, gold prices may correct somewhat. To be clear, the timing of the current military tensions is favorable for gold bulls. First of all, we live in an environment of already high inflation. Wars tend to intensify price pressure as governments print more fiat money to finance the war effort and reorient their economies from producing consumer goods toward military stuff. Not to mention the possible impact of the conflict on oil prices, which would contribute to rising energy costs and CPI inflation. According to Morgan Stanley’s analysts, further increases in energy prices could sink several economies into an outright recession. Second, the pace of economic growth is slowing down. The Fed has been waiting so long to tighten its monetary policy that it will start hiking interest rates in a weakening economic environment, adding to the problems. There is a growing risk aversion right now, with equities and cryptocurrencies being sold off. Such an environment is supportive of gold prices. Third, the current US administration has become more engaged around the world than the previous one. My point is that the current conflict is not merely between Russia and Ukraine, but also between Russia and the United States. This is one of the reasons why gold has been reacting recently to the geopolitical news. However, a Russian invasion of Ukraine wouldn’t pose a threat to America, and the US won’t directly engage in military operations on Ukrainian land, so the rally in gold could still be short-lived. If history is any guide, geopolitical events usually trigger only temporary reactions in the precious metals markets, especially if they don’t threaten the United States and its economy directly. This is because all tensions eventually ease, and after a storm comes calm. Hence, although the media would focus on the conflict, don’t get scared and – when investing in the long run – remember gold fundamentals. Some of them are favorable, but we shouldn’t forget about the Fed’s tightening cycle and the possibility that disinflation will start soon, which could raise the real interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

EURUSD bounces off support The euro surged over signs that Moscow may remain open to diplomacy. The pair found support at the base of the previous rally (1.1290), indicating the bulls’ commitment to keeping the rebound intact. The RSI’s oversold situation attracted a slew of bargain hunters betting on a lengthy rebound. A break above 1.1390 would prompt sellers to cover and pave the way for a sustained recovery. The recent peak and daily resistance at 1.1490 is a major hurdle. Its breach could extend the rally to 1.1600. EURGBP attempts reversal The sterling whipsawed after BOE officials’ comment about a “modest” rate hike over the coming months. The euro saw strong bids at the base of the February breakout rally (0.8310). A break above 0.8370 wiped out some selling interest, a prerequisite for a meaningful recovery. 0.8400 is the next resistance and its breach would further boost buyers’ confidence and propel the single currency to the recent high at 0.8475. On the downside, a bearish breakout would invalidate the rebound pattern and cause a sell-off below 0.8280. GER 40 breaks floor Trepid sentiment continues to weigh on the Dax. The plunge below the 9-month long consolidation area (14850) may foreshadow a bear market. As traders grew wary, trapped bulls would look to get out of their positions while the bears saw any rebound as an opportunity to sell into strength. An oversold RSI brought in some bids and 14850 is the immediate resistance. However, the index would remain under unless it lifts offers around 15200. Otherwise, the psychological level of 14000 would be the next stop.

~/getmedia/fbdf02b1-4fa2-42af-bbad-7f789e463bc0/P-swapy.png Swaps: FX Swap vs. Cross-Currency Swaps Swaps are derivative contracts serving for the purpose of exchanging financial instruments. through which two parties exchange financial instruments. Such instruments can comprise of different values, however, the mostly popular is the exchange of cash when both parties agree on certain notional principal. In practice, banks do not change the principal. Each of the cash flows has a so-called swap leg. Often, one leg comprises of a fixed cash flows, while the other leg is somehow variable, therefore it’s moving according to some interest rate, fx rate or any other indices, etc. Interest rate swaps (IRS) This is the most frequently used swap type on the interbank market. It’s not a business of any retail traders, nor they can’t be found on any exchanges. This is a derivative for an over-the-counter market (OTC), where banks (or any other financial institutions) exchange currencies.   Calculation of an IRS: Bank A has issued a 5-yr bond with a variable annual interest rate according to the LIBOR rate + 1.3% (130 basis points). Bank A makes an agreement with the Bank B, expressing its will to pay LIBOR + 1.3% for $1 million for 5 years to the Bank A. In exchange, Bank A pays the fixed annual rate of 5% on a notional value of $1 million for the same 5 years. Let’s imagine the LIBOR stays at 1.5%. In the event the rate rises over the next 5 years, Bank A benefits from such deal. In the event LIBOR rises 0.75% p.a., Bank A pays $215,000 to bond holders Year 2 = 1.5% + 0.75% = 2.25% Year 3 = 2.25% + 0.75% = 3.0% Year 4 = 3.0% + 0.75% = 3.75% Year 5 = 3.75% + 0.75% = 4.5% $215,000 = $1,000,000 x [(5 x 0.013) + 0.015 + 0.0225 + 0.03 + 0.0375 + 0.045] This means that the Bank A pays $75,000 more to its bond holders as if the rate stayed the same (so it would pay only $140,000 if LIBOR had remained unchanged at 1.5%: 140 000 $ = 1 000 000 $ x 5 x (0,013 + 0,015) Bank A pays Bank B $250,000: 250 000 $ = 1 000 000 $ x 5 x 0,05 Bank A receives $215,000 from the Bank B. Therefore, its net loss on the swap comes to $250,000 - $215,000 = $35,000. FX swaps An FX swap is another kind of agreement between two banks, exchanging one currency for another (so the EU-based Bank A lends EUR to the Bank B, while the U.S.-based Bank B lends U.S. dollars to the Bank A). In this case, the collateral for meeting its obligation is the amount to be repaid by one party to another. Such repayment depends on the exchange rate, so the development is clear since the beginning. According to the most frequent situation for FX swaps, the picture from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) depicts the exchange of EUR for USD through swap. The Bank A borrows USD (X·S USD) from the Bank B while lending the EUR (X EUR) to the Bank B (S means the FX spot rate). After the expiration (if not prolonged), the Bank A is obliged to return USD (X·F USD) to the Bank B, while the Bank B must return EUR (X EUR) to the Bank A (F means the FX forward rate since the start).   FX swaps are popular on the interbank market as they allow the banks to reach to foreign currencies easily (could apply to exporting/importing companies as well). Thanks to its popularity on the OTC market, their maturities have been often prolonged for more than 1 year, however the banks are always looking for further possibilities and derivatives as they need foreign cash flows as well. Good example is the swaption (option giving the right to the user to open a swap at certain time for the underlying asset). Fig. 1: System of FX swaps – source: BIS Cross-Currency Swaps Cross-currency swaps are used less frequently, however, they play an important role on the interbank OTC market. Here, the banks borrow on currency, while lending another currency at the same time to the bank they borrowed from. The system is little upgraded from the FX swaps, albeit many traders tend to mix these two swap types. Here, the EU-based Bank A borrows USD (X·S USD) from the Bank B, while providing it EUR (X EUR) as in case of FX swaps. Nevertheless, here the Bank A receives EUR 3M Libor+ α from the Bank B, while the Bank A pays USD 3M Libor to the Bank B every quarter (3M or Q). The α is the price of the basis swap, agreed between the parties at the beginning. After the expiry date, the Bank A is obliged to return USD (X·S USD) to the Bank B, where S is the spot rate at the conclusion of this agreement. At the same time, the Bank B must return EUR (X EUR) to the Bank A. Cross-currency swaps serve for the same purpose on the interbank market, however, the banks/institutions tend to take the rates (their change) into account, mainly during the volatile periods of time. Here, due to their nature or rate change taken into account, the maturity is much longer as in case of the FX swaps as the change of rates comes much slower as in case of the exchange rate. They are often concluded from 1 to 30 years in maturity. Fig. 2: System of cross-currency swaps – source: BIS

The New Zealand dollar has been adding around 1% since the start of the day following the third key rate hike of 0.25 percentage points to 1.0% and comments from the RBNZ on the need for further policy tightening.Wednesday also saw the announcement of the start of a balance sheet reduction, including via active selling.The central bank points to employment above the maximum sustained level and the overall economic performance above its potential, all with elevated inflation.The RBNZ also says further tightening is needed, pointing to upside risks to inflation.NZDUSD is testing 0.6800, as it did just over a month ago. The Kiwi came under pressure in the previous month due to a general risk bias in global markets. However, the paths of the NZDUSD and international markets diverged in February. The steady demand of the New Zealand currency, which gained nearly 4% from the lows of late January, contrasts with the S&P500, which lost its rising momentum about a fortnight ago and is again near the lows of the year.The main reason for that divergence is monetary policy - current and expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained the momentum of tightening for the third time in the last six months and promises further rises later in the year.New Zealand has also found itself far removed from the worst geopolitical tensions in Europe of recent decades, continuing to benefit from record-breaking commodity prices.In this environment, it would not be surprising to see the NZDUSD rise as far as 0.7000 by the end of next month, in a break from last year's downward trend. Although, it would be too naive to expect an easy up ride for the Aussie, as the US Fed is also signalling a very hawkish stance.

PRESS RELEASE Warsaw, 23.02.2022Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration has leased over 640 sq m. of office space with a 2000 sq m. square located next to the office building for its subordinate unit in the OKAM investment in Warsaw district of Żerań.The Chamber was looking for a location that would allow for the lease of both office space and a suitable area for customs clearance for the Customs Department VI in Warsaw, currently located in the Targówek district.These conditions were met by the warehouse, production and office complex located on the site of the former car factory at Jagiellońska Street in Warsaw.- The Chamber planned to relocate to a new office. However, the property also had to guarantee efficient logistics related to the customs clearance of goods. The infrastructure of the mixed-use complex in Żerań, its unique character on the scale of the entire Warsaw agglomeration, made it possible to fully meet the tenant's requirements. The profile of the investment allowed for a full consolidation and concentration the activities of the institution and its administration in one place - informs Piotr Szymoński, Director Office Agency at Walter Herz, the company which represented the landlord during the transaction.The new headquarters of the Customs Department VI in Warsaw and two organizational units of MCTO, they plan to move into next month, is located in a four-storey building, with a total of over 3100 sq m. of space.- Warsaw market offers many attractive spaces, which is why we feel all the more distinguished by the choice of our investment in Żerań by the Warsaw Chamber of Tax Administration. We hope that the office space leased by the Chamber along with the adjacent square will meet all of the current and future expectations of the organization. Our project in Żerań will also actively develop with our tenants and their needs in mind – says Arie Koren, CEO of OKAM City.OKAM investment in Żerań provides both office, retail and commercial space, as well as warehouse space, the height of which exceeds even 20 meters. It also has paved areas of high load capacity, intended for exhibition squares and parking lots.Most of the lease space in the complex is characterized by a great variety in terms of the offered parameters. - This makes the location a great choice for customers looking for space with different functions and non-standard dimensions in one investment - says Piotr Szymoński. The location provides direct access to the S8 route. The center of Warsaw can be reached within 20 minutes from the OKAM investment. Bus and tram stops as well as bicycle paths are located 250 m from the entrance to the complex. About Walter HerzWalter Herz company is a leading Polish entity which has been operating in the commercial real estate sector across the country. For nine years, the company has been providing comprehensive and strategic investment consulting services for tenants, investors and real estate owners. It provides extensive support for both public and private sector. Walter Herz experts assist clients in finding and leasing space, and give advice when it comes to investment and hotel projects.In addition to its headquarters in Warsaw, the company operates in Cracow and the Tri-City. Walter Herz has created Tenant Academy, first project in the country, supporting and educating commercial real estate tenants across Poland, with on-site courses held in the largest cities in the country. In order to ensure the highest ethical level of services provided, the agency introduced the Code of Good Practice. About OKAMOKAM Capital has been a leader among the real estate development companies for over 17 years. The company specializes in residential and commercial construction. OKAM portfolio includes 25 projects in 7 cities in Poland, such as Strefa PROGRESS in Łódź, INCITY and CITYFLOW in Warsaw district of Wola, MOKKA, VISTA and CENTRAL HOUSE in Mokotów, ARLET HOUSE in Ochota, ŻOLI ŻOLI in Żoliborz, BOHEMA - Strefa Praga in Praga Północ and 62 ha in Warsaw district of Żerań. In Katowice, the company is implementing investments in Dolina Trzech Stawów: DOM W DOLINIE TRZECH STAWÓW and INSPIRE. The assets of OKAM also include historic tenement houses in the center of Katowice as well as in Cracow.At the end of 2018, OKAM introduced the New Quality Policy as an expression of corporate social responsibility. Starting with the CENTRAL HOUSE investment, all OKAM residential investments will be equipped with pro-ecological and functional solutions supporting climate protection and improving the comfort of living, such as electric vehicle rental, bicycle rental, air purifiers, solar panels, systems for reusing rainwater, etc.

S&P 500 had a wild swings day, and didn‘t rise convincingly – credit markets didn‘t move correspondingly either. The upswing looks postponed unless fresh signs of broad weakness arrive. Yesterday‘s session didn‘t tell much either way – the countdown to the upswing materializing, is on even though tech didn‘t take advantage of higher bond prices. That can still come.VIX though reversed to the downside, and the relatively calmer session we‘re likely going to experience today, would be consistent with a modest attempt for stocks to move higher. I‘m though not looking for a monstrous rally, even though we‘re trading closer to the lower end of the wide S&P 500 range for this year than to its upper border. The 4,280s are so far holding but as the Mar FOMC approaches, we‘re likely to see a fresh turn south in the 500-strong index. For now, the talk of raising rates is on the back burner – Europe is in the spotlight.Note that the flight to safety on rising tensions (Treasuries, gold and oil up) didn‘t benefit the dollar. Coupled with the yields reprieve, that makes for further precious metals gains – the bull run won‘t be toppled if soothing news arrives. Likewise crude oil isn‘t going to tank below $90, and remain there. Commodities can be counted on to keep running – led by energy and agrifoods, with base metals (offering a helping hand to silver) in tow. As I wrote weeks ago, this is where the real gains are to be found.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookS&P 500 volume moved a little up, meaning the buying interest is still there – convincing signs of a trend change are though yet not apparent. Should prices prove to have trouble breaking lower over the next 1-2 days, this could still turn out a good place for a little long positon.Credit MarketsHYG continues basing, and keeps trading in a risk-off fashion, which is why I can‘t be wildly bullish stocks for now. Stock market gains are likely to remain subdued, noticeably subdued – as a bare minimum for today.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, but a little reprieve is developing – nothing though that would break the bull. The run is only starting, and would continue through the rate raising cycle.Crude OilCrude oil is fairly well bid, and doesn‘t appear to be really dipping any time soon. Oil stocks are preparing for an upswing, and would remain one of the best performing S&P 500 sectors. Tripple digit oil is a question of time.CopperCopper‘s moment in the spotlight is approaching as commodities keeps pushing higher, and base metals are breaking up. All of these factors are inflationary.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos are attempting to move up today, and further gains are likely. I‘m though looking for the 50-day moving average in Bitcoin (corresponding roughly to the mid Feb lows in Ethereum) to prove an obstacle.SummaryS&P 500 didn‘t break to new lows overnight, and appears to be picking up somewhat today. The anticipated rebound might materialize later today, and would require bond participation to be credible. I‘m not looking for sharp gains within this upswing though – the correction looks very much to have further to run. It‘s commodities and precious metals where the largest gains are to be made, with the European tensions taking the focus off inflation (momentarily). The pressure on the Fed to act decisively, is though still on as various credit spreads tell – and the same goes for the compressed yield curve speaking volumes about the (precarious) state of the real economy.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

DWAC stock spiked 28% in Tuesday's premarket after TRUTH Social began accepting users.Tuesday's regular session, however, saw DWAC jump only half as high.Digital World Acquisition Corp's share count is expected to more than quadruple one month after merger closes.Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) stock could not compete in Tuesday's regular session with its performance in the premarket. DWAC shares exploded 28% to $108 before the markets opened on Tuesday. Once the public session got under way, however, DWAC could not even break $100. The Special Purpose Acquisition Vehicle (SPAC) slated to take former President Donald Trump's Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) public in the next month still closed up 10.2% to $92.90 on a day when most equities sold off due to tensions on the Ukraine-Russia front.Donald Trump's social media startup, TRUTH Social, began allowing app downloads on Apple devices on Sunday, February 20, which caused the price to spike on Tuesday when markets opened after the Presidents' Day holiday.Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock News: 172K waitlistedOn Tuesday, Newsweek reported that more than 172,000 accounts had been waitlisted, and other sources said many of those seeking to gain access had received error messages. Research firm Apptopia estimated there were 170,000 downloads on Monday in the US. The app was the top free download in Apple's App Store on Monday.This was good news for the most part since trouble accessing a new app due to popularity is normally a sign that it is a hit. Traders, however, began taking profits almost immediately when DWAC shares popped to $99 at the open.A steady drip of new download figures should buoy the stock in the coming days as the company has said it may take 10 days to onboard all the early adopters. The only major worry going forward is the coming share count increase. Thirty days after the merger is completed, separate shares owned by insiders, underwriters, and private investors who invested in the SPAC's separate PIPE deal (Private Investment in Public Equity) will be allowed to trade. This means that the current 37 million-odd shares will grow overnight to more than 170 million. Though this is not a standard dilution event, the increase may put downward pressure on the share price.Additionally, another 40 million "earnout" shares might be earned by company insiders and owners if the share price remains above $15, $20 or $30 a share on average in the month after the merger. Then there are the 15 million warrants that could get exercised in September 2022. By the end of the year, there could be 225 million total shares. Digital World Acquisition Corp Stock Forecast: Two top trend linesAfter opening on Tuesday at $99, the stock immediately sold down to $85.67 before rebounding throughout the rest of the day. Twice during Tuesday's session, DWAC faced resistance near $96.DWAC is trading within an ascending price channel, which gives the market confidence to hold out for higher prices. Traders should note that there are two separate possible top trend lines available to them. The first one (yellow) is the more recent trend that began on January 24. It is much steeper and takes a trajectory aimed at the 161.8% Fibonacci level at $134.90. The other (blue) began back on December 8 and takes a more conservative and gradual aim at the $120 level, which was significant during the first rally in price action back during late October.The swing highs from January 19, February 7 and 22 are all slightly higher than one another, demonstrating that and uptrend is definitely motion no matter which top trend line is preferred. Support sits at $78, $60 and $38. DWAC 1-day chart

  Stocks were volatile yesterday and the broad stock market fell by another 1%. Was it a final decline or just another leg within a downtrend? The S&P 500 index lost 1.01% on Tuesday, Feb. 22, as it extended its last week’s Thursday’s-Friday’s sell-off. The daily low was at 4,267.11, and the market closed slightly above the 4,300 mark. We’ve seen a lot of volatility following the U.S. President Biden’s speech on Russia-Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 0.7% higher. We may see more volatility, however it looks like a short-term bottoming pattern. The nearest important resistance level is at 4,350-4,400, marked by the recent local low and some previous support levels. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,250-4,300, among others. The S&P 500 index trades within its late January consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com): Futures Contract – Short-Term Consolidation Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. It extended the downtrend on Monday, but it managed to stay slightly above its late January local lows. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation. It may be a bottoming pattern before an upward correction. Yesterday, we decided to open a speculative long position before the opening of the cash market. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com): Conclusion The S&P 500 index went below the 4,300 level yesterday, as investors reacted to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis news. The market may be trading within a short-term consolidation and we may see an attempt at reversing the downtrend. Here’s the breakdown: The S&P 500 index will likely bounce or fluctuate following its late last week’s sell-off We are maintaining our yesterday’s long position. We are expecting an upward correction from the current levels. Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Paul Rejczak,Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  To the disappointment of gold bulls, the yellow metal’s upward trend will not last long. Fundamentals have already taken their toll on gold miners.  While gold remains uplifted due to the Russia-Ukraine drama, the GDXJ ETF declined for the second-straight day on Feb. 22. Moreover, I warned on numerous occasions that the junior miners are more correlated with the general stock market than their precious metals peers. As a result, when the S&P 500 slides, the GDXJ ETF often follows suit. To that point, with shades of 2018 unfolding beneath the surface, the Russia-Ukraine headlines have covered up the implications of the current correction. However, the similarities should gain more traction in the coming weeks. For context, I wrote on Feb. 22: When the Fed’s rate hike cycle roiled the NASDAQ 100 in 2017-2018, the GDXJ ETF suffered too. Thus, while the Russia-Ukraine drama has provided a distraction, the fundamentals that impacted both asset classes back then are present now. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the GDXJ ETF in 2018, while the black line above tracks the NASDAQ 100. If you analyze the performance, you can see that the Fed’s rate hike cycle initially rattled the former and the latter rolled over soon after. However, the negativity persisted until Fed Chairman Jerome Powell performed a dovish pivot and both assets rallied. As a result, with the Fed Chair unlikely to perform a dovish pivot this time around, the junior miners have some catching up to do. Furthermore, while the S&P 500 also reacts to the geopolitical risks, the Fed’s looming rate hike cycle is a much bigger story. With the U.S. equity benchmark also following its price path from 2018, a drawdown to new 2022 lows should help sink the GDXJ ETF. Please see below: Source: Morgan Stanley To explain, the yellow line above tracks the S&P 500 from March 2018 until February 2019, while the blue line above tracks the index's current movement. If you analyze the performance, it's a near-splitting image. Moreover, while Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist Michael Wilson thinks a relief rally to ~4,600 is plausible, he told clients that "this correction looks incomplete." "Rarely have we witnessed such weak breadth and havoc under the surface when the S&P 500 is down less than 10%. In our experience, when such a divergence like this happens, it typically ends with the primary index catching down to the average stock," he added. As a result, while a short-term bounce off of oversold conditions may materialize, the S&P 500's downtrend should resume with accelerated fervor. In the process, the GDXJ ETF should suffer materially as the medium-term drama unfolds.  To that point, the Fed released the minutes from its discount rate meetings on Jan. 18 and Jan. 26. While the committee left interest rates unchanged, the report revealed: “Given ongoing inflation pressures and strong labor market conditions, a number of directors noted that it might soon become appropriate to begin a process of removing policy accommodation. The directors of three Reserve Banks favored increasing the primary credit rate to 0.50 percent, in response to elevated inflation or to help manage economic and financial stability risks over the longer term.” For context, the hawkish pleas came from the Cleveland, St. Louis, and Kansas City Feds. Moreover, the last time Fed officials couldn’t reach a unanimous decision was October 2019. As a result, the lack of agreement highlights the monetary policy uncertainty that should help upend financial assets in the coming months. As evidence, the report also revealed: Source: U.S. Fed Thus, while I’ve highlighted on numerous occasions that a bullish U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs, the Russia-Ukraine drama has been a short-term distraction. However, with Fed officials highlighting that growth and inflation meet their thresholds for tightening monetary policy, higher real interest rates and a stronger USD Index will have much more influence over the medium term. To that point, IHS Markit released its U.S. Composite PMI on Feb. 22. With the headline index increasing from 51.1 in January to 56.0 in February, an excerpt from the report read: “February data highlighted a sharp and accelerated increase in new business among private sector companies that was the fastest in seven months. Firms mentioned that sales were boosted by the retreat of the pandemic, improved underlying demand, expanded client bases, aggressive marketing campaigns and new partnerships. Customers reportedly made additional purchases to avoid future price hikes. Quicker increases in sales (trades) were evident among both manufacturers and service providers.” More importantly, though: Source: IHS Markit In addition, since the Fed’s dual mandate includes inflation and employment, the report revealed: Source: IHS Markit Likewise, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, added: “With demand rebounding and firms seeing a relatively modest impact on order books from the Omicron wave, future output expectations improved to the highest for 15 months, and jobs growth accelerated to the highest since last May, adding to the upbeat picture.” If that wasn't enough, the Richmond Fed released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity on Feb. 22. While the headline index wasn't so optimistic, the report revealed that "the third component in the composite index, employment, increased to 20 from 4 in January" and that "firms continued to report increasing wages." For context, the dashed light blue line below tracks the month-over-month (MoM) change, while the dark blue line below tracks the three-month moving average. If you analyze the former's material increase, it's another data point supporting the Fed's hawkish crusade. Source: Richmond Fed Finally, the Richmond Fed also released its Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity on Feb. 22. For context, the U.S. service sector suffers the brunt of COVID-19 waves. However, the recent decline in cases has increased consumers’ appetite for in-person activities. The report revealed: “Fifth District service sector activity showed improvement in February, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The revenues index increased from 4 in January to 11 in February. The demand index remained in expansionary territory at 23. Firms also reported increases in spending, as the index for capital expenditures, services expenditures, and equipment and software spending all increased.” Furthermore, with the employment index increasing from 12 to 14, the wages index increasing from 41 to 46, and the average workweek index increasing from 9 to 10, the labor market strengthened in February. Likewise, the index that tracks businesses’ ability to find skilled workers increased from -21 to -19. As a result, inflation, employment and economic growth create the perfect cocktail for the Fed to materially tighten monetary policy in the coming months.  Source: Richmond Fed The bottom line? While the Russia-Ukraine saga may dominate the headlines for some time, the bearish fundamentals that hurt gold and silver in 2021 remain intact: the U.S. economy is on solid footing, and demand is still fueling inflation. Moreover, with information technology and communication services’ stocks – which account for roughly 39% of the S&P 500 – highly allergic to higher interest rates, the volatility should continue to weigh on the GDXJ ETF. As such, while gold may have extended its shelf life, mining stocks may not be so lucky. In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Feb. 22, as the news cycle continues to swing financial assets in either direction. However, while headlines may have a short-term impact, technicals and fundamentals often reign supreme over the medium term. As a result, lower lows should confront gold, silver, and mining stocks in the coming months. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFAFounder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care * * * * * All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  The Natural Gas flight just landed after hitting its second and last target yesterday. The perfect trade does not exist, but this one has been developing pretty well following our flying map. In today’s edition, I will provide a trade review for Natural Gas futures (NGH22) following my last projections published on Friday Feb-11, for which the stop was also updated last Wednesday and trailed again last Thursday. Trade Plan Just to remember, our initial plan was relying on a gas market having to cope with stronger demand to fuel and increasing industrial activity after being surprised by the warming mid-February weather forecast. Hence, the projected rebounding floor (or support level) provided, which was ideal for the Henry Hub given the unyielding global demand for US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), providing a catapulting upward momentum. Then, it took a few days for the first suggested objective at $4.442 to be passed, and a few extra days for the second target located at the $4.818 level to be hit (as it was yesterday). Meanwhile, as I explained in more detail in my last risk-management-related article to secure profits, our subscribers were kindly and promptly invited to place their initial stop just below the $3.629 level (below one-month previous swing low), before receiving a couple of trading alerts suggesting they manually trail it up around the $3.886 level (around breakeven), then one more time up towards 4.180 (which corresponds to the 50% distance between initial entry and target 1), and finally to be lifted up to 4.368 optimally. Consequently, after a reconnaissance mission got close enough to target number 2, the Nat-Gas flight started running out of kerosene after passing through the first target like a fighter jet would break the sound barrier. Therefore, after getting refueled at a lower altitude (just above our highest elevation trailing stop) by a refuelling aircraft, the jet was finally ready to point and lock its last target before striking it. Here is a picture-by-picture record of that trade. First step: flight preparation on carrier ship Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Second step: prices catapulted and stop lifted at breakeven once the mid-point target was reached Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Third step: target one hit and stop dragged up Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to target one (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fourth step: mission reconnaissance to target two and refueling aircraft en route to refill the jet tank (stop trailing again) Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Zoom to lock final target (4H chart): Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) Fifth step: final strike to target two Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, daily chart) Now, let’s zoom one more time into the 4H chart to observe the recent price action all around the abovementioned steps of our flying map: Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGH22) Futures (March contract, 4H chart) As you may observe, target one is now serving as a new landing space (support) for a new ranging market cycle. That’s all, folks, for today. I hope that you enjoyed the flight with our company! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien BischeriOil & Gas Trading Strategist * * * * * The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

  The war has begun: after a few weeks of tense situation, Russia has taken a radical step and started an invasion of Ukraine. How will this affect gold? Boy, ! The Russia-Ukraine conflict is intensifying swiftly. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the recognition of two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk regions). The decree also included an order to send Russian troops there as “peacekeeping forces”. In response, Ukraine declared a state of emergency, while the EU banned purchases of Russian government bonds and imposed sanctions on most members of the Russian parliament. Germany froze approvals for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. American President Joe Biden also released the first tranche of sanctions against Russia, targeted mainly at banks and sovereign debt, and promised further moves: Today, I am announcing the first tranche of sanctions to impose a cost on Russia in response to their actions yesterday. We’ll continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates. We are implementing full blocking sanctions on two large Russian financial institutions VEB and military bank. We are implementing comprehensive sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt. That means we’ve cut off Russia’s government from Western financing. Starting tomorrow, we’ll also impose sanctions on Russia’s elites and family members. Putin wasn’t apparently impressed by these sanctions, as he authorized a military operation in eastern Ukraine early Thursday. The invasion has started. Indeed, there are reports of Russian troops crossing the Ukrainian border in multiple locations, and of explosions in many of the country’s cities, including the capital, Kyiv. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted that: Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes. This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now.   Implications for Gold What does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine imply for the gold market? Well, risk aversion has soared amid the conflict. Equities are plunging while safe-haven assets are soaring. This, of course, applies also to gold, which rallied to $1,905 on Wednesday, the highest level since January 2021, as the chart below shows. In response to the invasion, the price of the yellow metal continued its upward trend, soaring to $1,945 on early Thursday, as one can see in the chart below. The move was perfectly in line with what I wrote on Tuesday: “if Russia invades Ukraine, the yellow metal should gain further.” Now, the question is: what next? I’m not a military expert, so I have no idea how the conflict will end. However, I know three things. The first is that the conflict will last some time. During the escalation period, gold prices will be driven up by risk aversion and safe-haven demand. Second, the conflict will start to de-escalate and end at some point. Then, we could see a correction in the gold market. Having said that, the yellow metal doesn’t have to immediately return to the pre-conflict level, as it could be supported by other factors, such as worries about inflation, and generally a rather bullish momentum. My point is that geopolitical events usually exert only a short-lived impact on gold, as they don’t affect the true fundamentals of the gold market. These will be shaped by the inflation path and the Fed’s reaction to it. Third, the upcoming weeks could be hot for the gold market. Don’t let emotions affect your investments. Remember the initial stage of the coronavirus pandemic? We all felt fear then – but it wasn’t the best investment advisor. War is also terrifying, but so far the conflict is limited to Ukraine and Russia and we don’t know yet whether the invasion will really escalate into a full-blown, bloody war. Be calm and stay tuned! If you enjoyed today’s free gold report, we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

The end of trading on Wednesday indicated growing concern as the ruble went into a sharp dive and the early start of trading marked increased sales. We saw 95.2425 for the euro and 84.075 for the dollar. After that, trading was halted as stock prices hit the lower limits set by the exchange, and there were no buyers in the stock order books - only sellers. The Moscow Exchange has suspended trading on all markets, including the currency and stock sections. SPB Exchange has suspended trading from 08:10 Moscow time for all types of securities and all trading modes. The ruble in indicative trading lost more than 10% against the dollar and the euro, the rate of which exceeds 90 and 101 rubles, respectively. Practically all financial instruments traded at the morning session are resting on the lower bars set by the exchange. Everything happened after the special operation announced by President Putin in the Donbass and reports of the shelling of military airports throughout Ukraine. The Bank of Russia announced the start of interventions in the foreign exchange market in order to slightly restrain the panicky unilateral fall of the ruble, which at the moment allowed the exchange rate to retreat from extremes. However, in such situations, it is pointless to wait for a reversal. The actions of central banks always only soften the blow but do not reverse the market. Despite the interventions and suspension of trading, extreme pressure on the Russian market promises to persist in the coming days. This is truly a new reality that we have not seen throughout our lives. The situation with Ukraine is developing according to the most dramatic scenario and will inevitably entail the most severe consequences that Russia has threatened in recent days. It is difficult to talk about some levels where the Russian currency or the market as a whole can stabilize. Recent events have pushed the ruble into uncharted territory. The latest quotes of the ruble on the Moscow Exchange show a price of 84 per dollar, and in indicative trading, it is already reaching 90. It looks like the ruble will slide very quickly down to 110 per dollar in the coming days and weeks. And near these levels, it will be necessary to look at the situation. In general, the fall of the ruble promises to carry on in the near future, while the shelling continues and the most severe sanctions are imposed on Russia. Hopes for stabilization now we can get only from politicians. The Ukrainian hryvnia, like the ruble, is trading below the levels from which it has repeatedly turned to growth since 2014. Here, too, the market has crossed the line of the conventional norm of the last eight years. From the current levels near 30 hryvnias per dollar, the outcome of this fall should be looked for, perhaps, at about 40.

Bitcoin was down 1% on Wednesday, ending the day near $37,600, but it is losing another 7% on Thursday morning, trading below $35,000. Ethereum has lost 12% to $2,340 in the last 24 hours. Leading altcoins show a proportionate decline. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, decreased by 8.4% over the day, to $1.57 trillion. The index of fear and greed of the crypto market fell by 2 points to 23, but being updated once a day, it clearly does not take into account the latest dramatic movements. The aggravation of tension around Ukraine exerted pressure on risky assets. There are growing risks of escalation associated with the introduction of Russian troops into Donbass. In such a situation, risky assets may continue to decline further. At the moment, we see that cryptocurrencies are selling stronger than developed world stocks (although not as extreme as Russian ones), confirming the risky nature of these assets and how they are not a replacement for gold. According to Glassnode, the wallets of long-term investors (hodlers) hold record volumes of BTC (76.5%). The volume of bitcoins, which have been without movement for more than 10 years, is also growing (12.6%). Thus, almost 90% of all currently available coins are out of the market. Now another country besides El Salvador may accept bitcoin as a means of payment. Senator Indira Kempis is developing a bill on cryptocurrencies and intends to convince the Mexican government to follow the "Salvadorian scenario" by recognizing BTC as a means of payment. Former SEC official Joseph Hall called the department's chances of losing the lawsuit against Ripple high. The regulator accuses the company of selling unregistered securities under the guise of XRP tokens.

USOIL continues to climb WTI crude surged after Russia launched a military operation in eastern Ukraine. The latest market jitters met support over 90.70 which sits next to the 20-day moving average. Sentiment would stay optimistic as long as price action is above this demand zone. A previous horizontal consolidation allowed the bulls to catch their breath and accumulate for the current push. A close above 95.50 would send the price towards the landmark 100.00. An overbought RSI may cause a brief pause if momentum traders take profit. NZDUSD hits resistance The New Zealand dollar jumped after the RBNZ raised rates for the third time in a row. The pair met selling pressure in the supply zone (0.6810) from the sell-off in late January. An overextended RSI led short-term bulls to take profit in that congestion area. However, the rebound trajectory may attract buying interest with the current pullback seen as an opportunity. 0.6680 is the next support after a drop below 0.6730. A deeper correction may test 0.6600, which is important support from the daily chart. AUDUSD seeks support The Australian dollar retreats amid cautious market sentiment. A break above the recent peak at 0.7245 suggests a strong bullish commitment. The pair is heading towards January’s high at 0.7310. A bullish breakout could turn things around in the medium term. After the RSI ventured into the overbought area, the bullish impetus stalled as intraday buyers took profit. 0.7165 is the next support as the RSI swings into the oversold area. Further down, 0.7100 is a key floor to keep the rebound intact.

The worst case scenario - Russian invasion of Ukraine - is materializing. We try to analyze its consequences for the economy and financial markets Oil price increases past $100 per barrel Russia is a key player on the energy commodities market, especially important for Europe. Situation on the oil market proves it - oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. Russia is exporting around 5 million barrels of oil each day, around 5% of global demand. Around a half of that is exported to the European Union. If the West decides to cut Russia off the SWIFT settlements system, Russian exports to the European Union could be halted. In such a scenario oil prices could jump $20-30 per barrel. In our opinion, the war risk premium included in current oil barrel prices amounts to $15-20. Europe is the main recipient of Russian oil. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Gold and palladium rally Conflict is the main driver of moves on the gold market. It is not the first time when gold proves to be a good store of value at times of geopolitical conflicts. Ounce of gold trades over 3% higher today, near $1,970, and just slightly over $100 below its all-time highs. Russia is an important producer of palladium, an important metal for the automotive sector. Source: Bloomberg, XTB Research Russia is a significant producer of palladium, which is a key metal in production of catalytic converters for the automotive sector. Palladium prices rallied almost 8% today. Fear means sell-off on the market Global stock markets are taking a hit not seen since 2020. However, panic is not as big as it was in early-2020. Uncertainty is the most important driver for global stock markets now as investors do not know what will come next. Correction on Nasdaq-100 futures deepened past 20% today. A big part of this drop, however, was caused by expectations of Fed tightening. DAX futures dropped around 15% since mid-January and trade near pre-pandemic highs. DE30 trades to halt decline at pre-pandemic high. Source: xStation5 Business in Ukraine is in danger It should not come as a surprise that Russian companies and companies with big exposure to Russia are the ones taking the biggest hit. Russian RTS dropped over 60% off the October 2021 high and briefly traded below 2020 lows! Polymetal International is a company worth mentioning - stock is plunging over 30% on London Stock Exchange as market fears sanctions will hit Anglo-Russian companies. Renault is also taking a hit as Russia is the second biggest market for the company. Banks with large exposure to Russia - UniCredit and Societe Generale - are also dropping hard. Even higher inflation From an economic point of view the situation is clear - military conflict will generate a new inflationary impulse. Prices of almost all commodities are trading higher, especially energy commodities. However, in case of commodity markets, a lot will depend on how conflict impacts logistics. Keep in mind that global logistics have not recovered from Covid-19 hit yet and now another negative factor is surfacing. According to the New York Fed index, global supply chains are the most tight on record. Central bankers' headache Covid-19 panic has been very short-lived, thanks to an enormous support offered by central banks. However, such an action is unlikely now. As conflict is inflationary and has a bigger impact on supply and logistics rather than demand, inflation becomes an even bigger problem for major central banks. On the other hand, quick tightening monetary policy would only magnify market turmoil. In our opinion, major central banks will continue with announced policy tightening. Risk of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March dropped but a 25 bp rate hike looks like a done deal. What's next? A key question for global markets now is - how much will the conflict escalate? An answer to this question will be a key to calming the markets. Once it is answered, calculations of impact on sanctions and speculations over changes in economic policy will begin.

S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Nasdaq OutlookThis isn‘t how an S&P 500 bottom looks like – downswing continues with more volatility ahead.Credit MarketsHYG is going down again, and credit markets are turning risk-off – look for Treasuries to do relatively better next, with little impact upon stocks.Gold, Silver and MinersPrecious metals fireworks continue, and the upswing got a poweful ally. Whatever retracement seen next, would be marginal in light of the developments.Crude OilCrude oil upswing can be counted on to continue, and oil stocks would remain among the best performing S&P 500 pockets. Black gold is though notorious for its wild volatility, and the coming days won‘t be an exception.CopperCopper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving.Bitcoin and EthereumCryptos aren‘t in a rally mode, but are attempting to put in a low. I don‘t think it would hold, the dust hasn‘t settled yet.SummaryS&P 500 is plunging, and attempting to base, but more selling would inevitably hit. The overnight dust hasn‘t settled yet, but the panic lows would not happen today. Even if it weren‘t for geopolitics, stocks were in rough waters for weeks already, in a serious, yields and liquidity driven correction, with a slowing real economy on top. For all the short-term focus, the buying opportunity would materialize only once the Fed turns – by autumn 2022. The best places to be in right now, are those presented below – precious metals and commodities – as inflation fires continue to rage on.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

I discussed the potential for the invasion into Ukraine with a friend over the past few days and how this new war may change the global economy. We ended up discussing the Invasion of Kuwait that took place in August 1990. At that time, as soon as the Invasion of Kuwait started, consumers almost immediately changed their spending and financial habits.Suddenly, people stopped going out to dinner after work. They stopped going out for drinks. They also stopped playing computer games and spending money on most outside entertainment (movies and movie rentals – back in the Blockbuster days). In short, consumers became fascinated by the televised war and lost focus on almost everything else.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity! As the conversation progressed, we started talking about how the US Federal Reserve may suddenly find that consumers have begun pulling away from traditional spending habits and how quickly these consumer trends can alter the economic landscape. For example, nearly 60 days into the Invasion of Kuwait, my friend remembered the US economy shifted into a much slower gear, and consumers continued to stay away from more normal spending habits.If this happens in today's super-inflated world, we may see a sudden shift in inflation, retail, housing, and general consumer demand very quickly. Recently, I started receiving messages from friends and clients worldwide who are focused on the Invasion of Ukraine – a whole new generation of people who may become entranced in the televised war (again).Consumer Retail May Suffer A -60% CollapseThis XRT Weekly Chart highlights the pre-COVID support levels that may become future targets if consumer spending habits suddenly shift. XRT has already fallen nearly -32% from the recent highs. If consumers continue to move away from outside economic activities, or more common post-COVID economic activities, we may see the Retail sector continue to move lower.Housing May Contract Faster Than ExpectedReal Estate may contract to near the COVID lows if consumers shy away from chasing speculative price trends in housing. Flipping houses has become a very hot industry over the past 5+ years. Yet, suddenly larger firms like Zillow and OpenDoor started offloading their Real Estate inventory because consumer demand shifted ahead of the US Fed's proposed rate hikes in 2022. The double-whammy of rising rates and war may be similar to what happened in the US between 1993 and 1994 – a very stagnant housing market.IYR has already fallen -16.5% from the highs and may decline to levels closer to -30% (or more) before finding a bottom. Wars tend to shift economies and spending habits very quickly.What To Stay Focused On Amid All The NoiseTraders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we've become used to trading over the past 5+ years. The market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.What Trading Strategies Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com 

Bitcoin price drops 7% on geopolitical news but is close to offering a nice entry-level. Ethereum price deteriorates 10% for the day and still has 7% to go before some solid support is present. XRP price sees early price bounce-off but might be too soon as better entry levels are present further down the line. Cryptocurrencies are waking up to a shocker this morning as the whole Eastern border of Ukraine is under siege of missile attacks by Russia and Belarus. This afternoon, NATO and the EU are scrambling for emergency meetings to further retaliate with sanctions cutting off Russia entirely from the financial system. In the meantime, investors are hoarding cash and pulling out their money into safe havens, but in the process, offering some lovely entry levels for the longer term. Bitcoin price breaks below $36,709 and looks to test support at $32,650, below $33,000 The Bitcoin (BTC) price got slaughtered this morning as the Russian offensive started in early trading hours, shedding 7% of its market value. As it is looking for support, it will be vital for market participants to await the right time to execute any trades. It is too late now for both bears and bulls to get in as markets will or could go either way, and both parties are better off waiting for the right entry-level. BTC price will favour bulls with an entry below the $34,000 key-level as above, for now, no actual entry points are offered. At $32,650, a solid entry-level is offered, going back to June 25. With this, BTC price would need to shed another 5% on top of the 7% it has already lost in early morning trading. Expect this to unfold once the US sessions kicks in and further deterioration of asset prices happens across the board. BTC/USD daily chart Should Putin step up military action, expect to see further deterioration of price action in several asset classes, certainly when civilian casualties are reported. Expect $32,650 to be breached and see BTC further deepen its losses towards $31,322. Following that, the famous distribution zone will have been entered, and short-term bulls and long-term investors will be buying up bits and pieces of the price action for a rebound once the situation stabilises. Ethereum bulls should open up their wallets as price action is set to offer some great entry points Ethereum (ETH) price is nearing some interesting levels as price action dips to the downside in an accelerated move as Russian troops are attacking several important cities in Ukraine. Whilst Europe tries to deal with the situation, more reports have come in of several critical Ukrainian military installations being fired upon by missiles and mortars. Putin proclaimed conducting a military surgical operation to demilitarise the country and succeed. ETH price gets under pressure as investors hoard cash and kick out any risky asset in the process, as Ethereum already lost 10% in early morning trading. Expect more downside to come towards $2,148, losing 18% of its value in the process. At the same time, this is an excellent window of opportunity for investors to buy ETH coins at a very lucrative discount once the situation stabilises. ETH/USD daily chart As this story develops further into the trading day, expect to see a deterioration of ETH price action towards $1,928 or even $1,688 – breaching $2,000, should more reports come in from Russian troops entering mainland Ukraine and taking over control of key cities. That would mean that ETH is set to lose another 17% to 25% in the process as the US session will be expected to deepen the loss intraday. In the meantime, Ethereum price action has entered a distribution zone, offering an excellent opportunity for investors to start building a stake in for any upside potential to come. XRP price is at risk of losing another 25% as first support is being tested Ripple's (XRP) price sees an initial bounce off the $0.6264 level this morning as Europe awakes to some severe military threats spilling over into global markets with risk assets being slashed across the board. XRP price action already shredded 10% at the time of writing and is seen bouncing off technically and recovering back to more moderate levels – but still holding heavy losses. As the situation further develops, expect cryptocurrencies to react instantly in both directions as more headlines and news hit the wires today. Expect $0.6264 not to withstand further selling pressure since the situation remains fragile. As possible combat headlines start to accelerate, expect to see another dip lower in XRP to $0.5852 or even $0.5231, adding another 6% to 16% of losses to the price action. With this, the Relative Strength Index will be diving deeply into oversold territory, making this area an excellent entry level for investors going long once the situation dies down and the market falls back to a more normal level. XRP/USD daily chart In the worst case, XRP could dip below $0.50 and tick $0.48 in the process, the lowest level since June 2021. Depending on the situation expect to see bulls either waiting and holding, or taking the bounce off the historic $0.48 level and the monthly S1 support level, which they may use as a point of entry for going long if the situation calms down in the near future.

USDJPY bounces off daily support The US dollar jumps as traders seek safe haven assets over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The pair struggled for bids after it turned away from the double top (116.20) and has been grinding down a falling trend line. However, the daily support at 114.40 has proved to be a solid demand area by keeping February’s rebound intact. Strong momentum above the trend line and 115.20 forced sellers out of the game and would attract more purchasing power. A close above 116.20 would extend the rally towards 117.00 XAUUSD seeks support Gold whipsawed as markets await the Western response to the invasion of Ukraine. The rally accelerated after it broke above last June’s high at 1912. Momentum trading pushed the price to September 2020’s highs (1975) before reversing its course. 1880 is a fresh support after intraday buyers took profit. As sentiment shifts to the bullish side, the current pullback combined with a depressed RSI could trigger a bargain-hunting behavior. Renewed buying frenzy may send the metal to the psychological level of 2000. US 500 lacks support The S&P 500 weakens as investors fear spillover from the conflict in Ukraine. A break below the daily support at 4280 further put the bulls on the defensive. Last May’s lows, near 4040, are the next target as liquidation continues. The index may have entered the bear market as the sell-off could speed up in the coming weeks. On the daily chart, the RSI’s double-dip in the oversold area may offer a temporary relief. 4350 is the first hurdle ahead and the bears may look to fade any rebound amid soured sentiment.

After reaching the lows for the month, the first cryptocurrency received support from buyers, as was the case at the end of January. Of course, the growth dynamics were relatively modest, which indicates the caution of buyers. It is likely that these are long-term holders rather than short-term speculators, as markets generally remain wary. Interestingly, buying during the decline has become a key outline of the American session. After more than a 3% fall, US stock indices not only bounced back but also managed to show growth at the end of the day. This stimulated bitcoin to strengthen. A short-term surge of bullish sentiment could end quickly if risky assets resume their decline again. If the situation in Ukraine escalates even more, bitcoin may fall below $30,000 as investors leave for defensive assets. According to The New York Times, Russia is legalizing cryptocurrency to circumvent US sanctions. Otherwise, the country will not survive the growing sanctions pressure from Western countries. Bitcoin rose over the past day by 10.7% to $38,500, reducing the decline in 7 days to 5%. Ethereum jumped 12% but is still 10% lower than it was exactly a week ago. Other leading altcoins are moving almost in unison, adding about 10% in most cases. The total capitalization of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, increased by 9.6% per day to $1.72 trillion. The bitcoin dominance index rose 0.3 points to 42.6%, due to a smaller strengthening of altcoins. The index of fear and greed of the crypto market has risen from 23 to 27, into the territory of fear.

Wheat futures on the CBOE are up 16% since the start of the week, the biggest rally since the poor harvest in 2012. At one point yesterday, the weekly rise was close to 20%. The price level was the highest since April 2008, as traders anxiously assessed the impact of the conflict between two of the world’s biggest exporters of wheat, corn, and other agricultural products. The FAO’s Food Price Index in January was near its 2011 peak (in nominal terms) and one step below its 1974 peak - a time of stagflation and the aftermath of the oil crisis. And the latest spike in grains prices suggests that these highs will already be surpassed in February. It means that people will spend more on food and less on durable goods and services, worsening living standards. Such price hikes are an additional headache for central banks around the world. They may find themselves forced to turn a blind eye to inflation so as not to put the economy and consumer demand under additional stress. But this is terrible news for currencies. Forced inflation tolerance by the Central Bank will depreciate the value of money and suppress the exchange rate. This promises to be a problem for the euro and the British pound. High inflation may no longer be a reason to buy the euro and the pound against the dollar on the forex market, as it would not increase the chances of a tightening of the central bank policy in the coming months. There could also be a reverse reaction when currencies come under pressure as investors sell off local bonds amid falling real yields.

S&P 500 recovered the steep losses as the shock was replaced with relief over the international response. Safe haven bids largely disappeared, and can be counted on remaining pressured – this concerns precious metals and crude oil. Credit markets – for all their downswing and forcing the Fed‘s hand through higher yields – have turned risk-on yesterday, but that got reflected just in the tech upswing as value didn‘t close the opening gap. But that would happen today as money flows out of the dollar hiding, and VIX can be counted on to stay much calmer than it was yesterday, in the days to come – that‘s what I tweeted late yesterday. Today‘s inflation data (core PCE) is going to take a backseat to geopolitics as uncertainty about where these tensions could lead, is getting removed in the markets‘ mind – especially as regards the international ramifications. Good to have taken sizable gold and oil profits off the table yesterday, well before the risk premiums were gone – fresh portfolio high has been reached. Remember that in times of high volatility, dialing back your exposure, your risk, is essential to proper risk management. Please have a good look at my style of open trade and money management if you haven‘t already so as to make the most of what I‘m doing. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Now, this looks a lot more as an S&P 500 bottom – volatility appears to be staying elevated but headed down next. Neutral to bullish outlook for today but downswings are likely to be repelled. Credit Markets HYG is marking the risk-on turn clearly, and volume was also solid. Credit markets won‘t be standing in the way of stock market upswing today, I think. Gold, Silver and Miners Precious metals ominous lower knot would have consequences for the days to come – but we have seen upswing rejection only, not a downside reversal. When miners catch their breath again, the move higher can continue. Crude Oil Crude oil upswing has been rejected, but the long base building goes on, and black gold can be counted on to extend gains even when the dust settles down. Copper Copper upswing would take time to develop, especially now – but the breakout in base metals is on, the inflationary messaging is still there and thriving – yesterday‘s words are still true today, but I am looking for a longer base building here than in crude oil. Bitcoin and Ethereum Cryptos are turning the corner, and the worst looks to be in here as well – yesterday‘s attempt to put in a low was successful. Summary S&P 500 turned around, and the bottom appears to be in. Unless a fresh and entangling escalation materializes (not likely), the markets are willing to shake it off, and erase yesterday‘s downswing. As chips (and international response) fall where they may, the tense air is being removed as markets abhor uncertainty the most. Risk premiums are evaporating, and until the Fed and yields come back into the spotlight, the odds favor risk-on muddying through ahead in the days to follow. The inflation chickens haven‘t though come home to roost, and that has continued bullish implications for real assets. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Tesla bounces strongly on Thursday as markets decide to ignore Ukraine. TSLA stock gains 4.8% on general market bounce back. Shares are up more than 2% in Friday's premarket. Tesla (TSLA) shares bounced strongly on Thursday after dropping off a cliff due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Tesla is now charging higher in Friday's premarket. TSLA stock bottomed out at $700 after opening just above it on Thursday, before spending the entire session climbing back to $800. The stock closed at $800.77, a surprising 4.8% above Wednesday. It is now up 2% in the premarket near $820. Tesla Stock News: Odd trades The latest news is a family affair. Trades made by CEO Elon Musk and his brother Kimble, who sits on Tesla's board, are being scrutinized by the Securites & Exchange Commission (SEC). The Wall Street Journal reports that Kimble sold $108 million worth of shares just one day before his brother Elon posted his infamous Twitter poll asking if he should sell 10% of his Tesla stake. Once the poll was answered strongly in the affirmative, Elon began selling. This caused an approximate 25% sell-off in the share price over the following month. Daiwa Securities Group, Japan's second-biggest investment bank, plastered an outperform rating on the stock due to what it said makes the company more attractive due to the Ukraine-Russia affair. The Japanese bank gave TSLA a $900 price target, writing that "higher oil prices and potential scenario of fuel shortages, especially in Europe, could accelerate the shift to EVs. While the start of production at the Berlin plant could be delayed, recent media reports of Tesla increasing capacity at its Shanghai facility gives it more flexibility to meet European demand." The bank also pointed to the company raising output at its Shanghai plant to 1 million units per year and increasing production to 500,000 units at its Austin plant. Currently, the Shanghai factory can produce about 450,000 units a year. One reason why increasing Shanghai output is key is that gross profit margins run at about 40% there, whereas the automaker's original factory in Fremont, California, has gross profit margins closer to 20%. Last but not least, Tesla has lost its Director of Engineering, Brian Dow, to Generac Holdings (GNRC), a maker of energy storage systems and batteries. Tesla Stock Forecast: Ukraine invasion provides $700 as support One benefit of the rollercoaster ride that hit markets on Thursday is that shareholders now know where long-term support sits. Ahem, it is $700. There must have been enough automatic buying there to spur the price higher since shares were pushed up steadily to $765 by midday. The $700 mark is, however, right in line with a descending bottom side trend line in place since November 10. The region around $945 is still the target to break back into bullish territory. This $945 mark has served as both support and resistance over the past four months going back to October. Before that, however, TSLA shares must close back above the 200-day moving average, which is now at $832.61. It broke through this moving average on Tuesday and may signal there is more downside ahead. TSLA 1-day chart

GBPUSD looks to steady The sterling recoups some losses as sentiment stabilizes after the initial fear-driven sell-off. A clean cut through the daily support at 1.3360 has triggered a wave of liquidation. Sentiment remains downbeat despite the recent rebound. A deeply oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters. However, the pound is vulnerable to another sell-off as buyers could be wary of catching a falling knife. 1.3500 from the previous consolidation range is the closest resistance. Further down, 1.3200 (near last December’s lows) might be the next target. USDNOK breaks rising trendline The US dollar consolidates as the Ukraine conflict makes a too aggressive move by the Fed unlikely. A short-lived surge above the supply area (9.0300) indicates strong selling pressure around 9.0900. Then a fall below the rising trendline calls the recent rebound into question. 8.7900 is the next support and buyers will need to lift offers around 9.0900 before they could hope for a meaningful comeback. Further down, this month’s low at 8.6800 is a key floor to keep the greenback afloat. GER 40 attempts to rebound The Dax 40 rebounds as traders bet that sanctions against Russia may not reach their full extent. The index saw solid bids near its 12-month lows (13800). The RSI’s repeated oversold indication has led short-term sellers to take profit in this key demand zone. 14850 from the tip of a previous bounce is the immediate resistance where the bears could be awaiting to sell into strength. A bullish breakout could soothe a battered mood. Otherwise, another round of sell-off may push the index below 13500.

NASDAQ 100 is set to open sharply lower on Monday. Russia placing nuclear forces on high alert spooked markets. European gas prices con