Intuitively, a deal with Russia would help euro rates higher, but falling gas futures are already pushing down the curve through lower inflation expectations. Tensions with Russia are likely to stay, which means risk sentiment should remain fragile
A December Fed cut is back as a baseline scenario for markets, but the dollar has remained relatively strong. Our short-term valuation metrics point to significant risks of a USD correction, unless data prompts a hawkish repricing. Geopolitics will remain in focus, both for European FX (Ukraine peace talks) and the yen (Japan-China tensions over Taiwan)
The Riksbank and the ECB are both in a 'good place'. However, the risks that rates will be lowered again in Sweden are even lower than in the eurozone, as the growth outlook continues to improve and the Riksbank already took rates below 2% in September. We don't expect any new guidance at this meeting, and the krona's outlook remains good into 2026
Italy's October batch of confidence data marks an improvement in all monitored sectors but services. This is good news for Italian growth perspectives in the fourth quarter
The dollar is a little weaker across the board in quiet trading conditions. The yen is outperforming on some very mild verbal intervention from Japanese authorities - but hardly enough to drive a sustainable trend. In a market deprived of US data by the government shutdown, there may be more focus than usual on reports that Amazon plans to cut 30,000 jobs
Eurozone retail sales declined by 0.1% in August compared to July. This sales trend has been roughly flat since April. The worried eurozone consumer is seemingly shying away from the shopping street despite improvements in purchasing power across the bloc
Romanian consumers have recently hit the brakes, signalling increased caution. While some of the August slowdown can be attributed to pre-emptive spending ahead of tax hikes, that doesn’t fully explain the drop. We do not expect this steep decline to become the norm, but caution is likely to persist into year-end and early 2026
Last week's US data was in general good, but today's sentiment and labour data remind us that not everyone is feeling so positive. This is a constraint on US growth prospects and suggests the Fed will retain an easing bias through the rest of the year
Sentiment in Dutch commercial services and retail cooled in September, according to fresh data from the European Commission. While the mood isn’t gloomy, it does echo our view that growth remains stuck below potential – for now
The economy remains on track to see a small improvement in GDP growth in the third quarter as uncertainty fades and big shocks to trade have been avoided
Following a second quarter still heavily impacted by the introduction of new US tariffs, early data for the third quarter points to a very mild improvement, though sectoral contributions remain uneven. Today’s confidence indicators for September appear to support this view
We expect the Riksbank to keep rates on hold at 2.0% on 23 September, in line with expectations. Markets are pricing in a less than one-in-three chance of a cut. Rate projections may well be kept unchanged but could still suggest some possibility of another cut. Our call for now is for no more easing. Sweden's krona has room to appreciate into year-end
Wage growth came in as expected in July. It seems likely that it will remain stable at this level in the near future. However, households still prefer to save rather than spend due to weak consumer confidence
August confidence indicators paint a picture of economic inertia, with growth momentum still concentrated in the services sector
Eurozone optimism has pushed the German two-year yield to the brink of pre-'Liberation Day' levels. Just shy of 2%, the balance of risk is towards near-term lower yields again. US rates are quick to fade the dovish move from last Friday, and we think the back end of the curve will want to test higher still
Today’s flash GDP data has confirmed our forecast for the second quarter, with annual growth continuing to expand at a modest 0.3% pace. We don’t expect major improvements at this stage, with risks actually tilted to the downside, and we continue to expect a 0.3% advance for the full year in 2025
The UK CPI was weaker than expected in February at 2.8%yr compared to 3.0%yr in January. Core inflation edged down from 3.7%yr to 3.5%yr, but services inflation held up at 5.0%yr. However, decrease in both was mainly driven by weaker core goods inflation, while services inflation, which the BoE officials follow closely, was unchanged at 5%yr.
Quiet start to Tuesday with G10 FX trading in tight ranges against the USD, US equity futures flat while USTs are weaker, led by the back-end. Reports suggest that India could cut its tariffs on US imports to avoid April 2 measures, following Trump's headlines on Monday on a potentially softened and/or targeted approach.
Stocks closed sharply higher and Treasury yields climbed after reports that President Donald Trump's tariff plan may use a more targeted approach than previously thought, boosting risk appetite. The dollar strengthened as U.S. business activity picked up in March, pushing gold lower. Oil prices were up on Venezuela oil and gas tariffs.
The Dow and the S&P 500 ended nearly unchanged, recovering from earlier lows following President Donald Trump’s comments on tariff reprieve. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose but traded in a tight range on tariff and economic concerns. The dollar gained putting pressure on gold prices. Oil edged up as fresh Iran sanctions and latest output plan from the OPEC+ raised supply concerns.
It has been a quiet start to the week for the major FX rates ahead of a busy schedule of G10 central bank meetings this week including the BoJ and Fed on Wednesday followed closely by the SNB, Riksbank and BoE on Thursday. Ahead of those policy updates the US dollar is continuing to consolidate at weaker levels against other major currencies with the dollar index trading just below the 104.00-level.
Stocks struggled with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touching one-month lows as a dour consumer confidence report put mounting economic uncertainties into sharp relief and prompted a selloff. "This is clearly a risk-off day and a continuation of a risk- off month," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.
A drop in consumer sentiment brought fresh concerns about the US economic growth. Most major equity indices sold off and government bonds rallied, with the 10Y US Treasury yield dropping 11bp to 4.29%. Market digested news that Ukraine is going to sign a minerals deal with the US, and a confirmation from the US president that US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will go up next week.
Rates Spark: The glass half empty trade. The drivers of Doge, Bessent and SLR have been added to in the guise of weaker consumer confidence and a ratchet down in expectations for the terminal rate. This market is now considering the possible downsides ahead. Can it last? Well yes for a bit. But we are constrained to the downside for yields, until or unless we seriously contemplate a recession of sorts
The Japanese yen is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.25, up 0.16% on the day.
