- UK Retail Sales (Jun) – 21/07 – retail sales in May surprised to the upside when the numbers were released just over a month ago, despite inflationary pressure rising to its highest levels since the 1990's. The two bank holidays appeared to prompt a rise in consumption spending, while the warmer weather prompted spending on holiday breaks, as well as other leisure activities as people booked tickets for music events.
In April we saw retail sales excluding fuel rise by 0.8%, partially reversing a sharp -1.4% decline in March, which in turn reversed a 1.4% gain in February. May saw a rise of 0.3%, against an expectation of a decline of -0.2%. This appeared to be in line with recent retail updates which have been for the most part better than expected. Consumer confidence has also been improving despite the stickier nature of inflation, although the continued rise in mortgage rates is likely to start to act as a major drag as fixed rate mortgage deals roll off and consumers become more constrained. In some part higher savings rate have helped to boost consumer spending, given the delay in seeing the effects of the roll off in fixed rate loans. This is likely to change in the coming months, although June retail sales are expected to climb by 0.2%.
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