EUR: Lagarde will try to hold the data dependency line
As Francesco Pesole discusses in our ECB Cheat Sheet, President Christine Lagarde will try to avoid being drawn into any pre-commitment over a summer rate cut. In theory then, if she can avoid this and leave markets with a sense that the European Central Bank is truly data-dependent, short-term euro interest rates could nudge a little higher and support FX pairs like EUR/USD and EUR/CHF. For reference, the market still prices 17bp of ECB rate cuts for the 17 April meeting, whereas our team only sees the easing cycle starting in June once the ECB has a better understanding of the spring wage round. We would say that the ECB event risk (statement 14:15CET, press conference 14:45CET) proves a mild upside risk to EUR/USD - but the carpet could be pulled from under the euro should President Lagarde somehow convey the message that the policy rate will be getting cut in the summer after all. 1.0850-1.0950 looks the EUR/USD range, with outside risk to 1.0980/90 should the ECB pushback against easing expectations prove surprisingly effective.
Elsewhere Norges Bank announces rates today. The policy rate was hiked to 4.50% in December - so it would seem far too soon for Norges Bank to embrace any idea of easing. However, the Norwegian krone has been suffering a little this year as the backup in market interest rates has hit the risk environment. In all, we suspect EUR/NOK needs to trade a little longer in this 11.35-45 range.
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