Bowim's 4Q23 Outlook: Navigating Short-Term Challenges, Poised for Long-Term Growth

Our approach to Bowim does not change. We believe 4Q23 financial results should not differ much from the Company’s performance in the previous quarters. We expect material improvement next year and onwards, as the funds from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan coupled with favorable regulatory changes in the domestic infrastructure will hopefully materialize which should support the expected economic rebound

In 4Q23 we expect a slight qoq decrease in volumes. As steel prices flattened in 4Q23, we believe metallurgical products prices were probably lower qoq (in 3Q23 steel prices plunged). Therefore, we expect a further decrease of the Company’s total revenues to PLN 452.6 million (down 6% qoq and down 18% yoy). The positive impact of steel prices flattening on the Company’s profitability should be visible at the end of 4Q23, albeit we believe it should be moderate. We expect 4Q23 EBITDA and EBIT to reach PLN 10.0 million and PLN 7.8 million, respectively, which implies the EBITDA/EBIT margin at 2.2%/ 1.7%. In 4Q23 lower interest rates should be reflected in the Company’s performance and we expect a slightly better qoq net financial result. We forecast 4Q23 net profit at c. PLN 2.7 million (up 140% yoy due to the low base effect).

Incorporating 4Q23 forecasts resulted in a slight modification of our assumptions for FY23. Our 12M EFV stays intact.

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