After what happened last week with beaten-down stocks such as GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC), there are indeed signs of a bubble forming. While these stocks don’t necessarily reflect the broader market, I have been calling a downturn for weeks.Complacency is by far the most significant risk in the markets right now, along with overstretched valuations beyond the GameStop “stonks,” and the possible return of inflation if the Fed lets the GDP run hot like I think they will.According to a recent Bank of America survey of 194 money managers, bullishness on stocks is at a three-year high, and the average share of cash in portfolios, which is usually a sign of protection from market turmoil, is at the lowest level since May 2013.Complacency.I still think we are long overdue for a correction since we haven't seen one since last March. The manic moves of the past week excite me but greatly concern me.Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).Thus far, what has occurred in January could be the potential start of the correction I have been forecasting. A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.We could also finally be approaching BUY levels on many of the SELL and HOLD calls I’ve made the last few weeks.Outside of my BUY call on the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT), which has gained 10.12% since I made the call on 12-3, I called the Nasdaq and the Russell both overbought and foresaw last week’s downturn.I made the SELL call on the QQQ Nasdaq ETF 1-25, and since then, it has declined 4.13%. I made the SELL call on the Russell 2000 IWM ETF 12-16 anticipating this eventual pullback. The Russell is now at its lowest level since the beginning of the year declined 4.30% in the last week.I also called the Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (PDBC) a BUY on 12-3, and it has gained 8.33%.Meanwhile, I’ve called the Dow Jones a HOLD for the last two months, and since 12-3, it is practically flat and up 0.15%.I’m not highlighting these calls to brag or toot my own horn. I’m highlighting these calls to remind everyone to please be level headed during these manic times and to please understand that stocks don’t only go up. The market saw its worst week since October last week, and has now declined in two of the last three weeks. More could come in the short-term.While GameStop and AMC are exciting, understand the risks you’re taking and don’t follow the herd.On the other hand, do not run and hide from a market decline, and do not let this deter you from chasing your goals. The market has overheated, but it is still not quite a broad sector-specific bubble like it was back in 2000. Yes, there are sectors more overvalued than others. But as we saw last week it’s more stock-specific. People still forget that shares of Eastman Kodak skyrocketed by 1,481% in three days last July. The broader indices seem to have done just fine since then.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, Therefore, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions, and wish you the best of luck.We’re all in this together! The S&P 500 May Be One More Pullback from a “BUY” Figure 1- S&P 500 Large Cap Index $SPXHow quickly things change.Before the start of last week, the S&P was hovering around a record-high. Its forward P/E ratio was the highest it’s been since the dot-com bust, and the RSI consistently approached overbought levels.Now the question is, how soon before it’s a BUY? The index declined over -3.3% last week and has fallen in two of the previous three weeks. The S&P is also an index that trades in a streaky manner and can rip off multiple-day win streaks and lose streaks.I said before that once the S&P approaches a 3600-level, that we can start talking about it as a BUY. There are short-term concerns, with long-term optimism. The S&P briefly dipped below 3700 on Friday, and the RSI is sitting around 43.25. To me, this keeps it at a HOLD, with maybe one or two pullbacks away from a BUY.What does worry me a bit is a week full of more earnings beats did not impress the index. Investors likely anticipated this. Remember- when the market usually gets what it expects, it’s usually a reason to sell more than buy.A short-term correction could inevitably occur by the end of Q1 2021, but for now, I am sticking with the S&P as a HOLD. You can definitely start “nibbling” though.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the S&P, the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

ReviewSource: Messari December 31st, 2020After a massive rally from the beginning of October, Bitcoin almost reached prices around US$20,000 on December 1st. Despite a heavily overbought situation, the bulls only needed a two-week breather. The successful breakout immediately caused a further acceleration, so that bitcoin prices continued to explode until January 8th 2021 and were able to rise to almost US$42,000. Bitcoin had thus increased more than tenfold in less than 10 months since the Corona crash! Looking at 2020 as a whole, Bitcoin pretty much outperformed everything, gaining 318%.Source: Dan Held on TwitterOver the last three weeks, however, there was, not surprisingly, a wave of profit-taking hitting the bitcoin market. Hence, prices retraced all the way back down toward just under US$29,000. This rapid correction represented a drop of 31% in just 14 days. In the big picture, however, this is not unusual. Instead, bitcoin has seen countless corrective price moves like this over the past 10 years. In the last bull market between autumn 2015 and December 2017, there were a total of six sharp pullbacks, all of which amounted to sell offs between 29% and 38%.Source: Dan Tapiero on TwitterIn the bigger picture however, volatility is still relatively low. Rather, the relative volatility indicates that the range of fluctuation is only just slowly beginning to rise again and should spike towards the later stages during the course of this current bull market.Overall, bitcoin has been in a new bull market since the Corona Crash in March 2020 and is likely to head for much higher price regions in the coming 10 to 24 months. Daily fluctuations of US$10,000 and more will then become increasingly common.Technical Analysis For Bitcoin in US-DollarBitcoin, Weekly Chart as of February 2nd, 2021. Source: TradingviewWith the breakout above the all-time high around US$20,000 on December 16th, 2020, the Bitcoin rally that had been underway since March 2020 already accelerated once again significantly. Although the market was already heavily overbought on all timeframes, bitcoin doubled within the following four weeks and reached a new all-time high at around US$42,000 on January 8th, 2021. After such a price explosion, it takes time to digest this strong rise. The pullback towards and slightly below US$29,000 is therefore perfectly normal and healthy.From the perspective of the weekly chart, however, there are no clear signs for an end of that correction yet. Looking at the “old” support zones and the overbought stochastic oscillator, a return to the breakout level around US$20,000 would be quite conceivable. Beyond that, there are two long-term upward trend lines that could also act as possible targets on the downside.Using the classic Fibonacci retracements from the low at US$3,850 to the recent high at US$42,000, the 38.2% retracement at US$27,425 would be the minimum correction target. If bitcoin can continue to hold above this retracement, this would be an extremely bullish sign of strength. A first retest of the recent lows at US$29,000 was also successful and thus far created a nice double low which might already have marked the turning point. However, prices below those lows would confirm a larger and deeper type of correction. Prices around US$27,500 and lower towards US$20,000 to US$22,000 would then become increasingly likely.However, since bitcoin is undoubtedly in an established bull market and in an overarching uptrend, the surprises are generally happening to the upside. Therefore, the only thing to note here is that new prices above US$40,000 would probably signal a continuation of the steep rally. In this case, prices around the next psychological level at US$50,000 should follow quickly.To summarize the weekly chart remains bullish above US$20,000. At the same time, there are still no signals for an end to the recently started pullback. In view of the relatively fresh stochastic sell signal, there is a distinct possibility that the correction of the last four weeks could extend significantly. However, if the bulls can keep the prices above US$29,000, the rally can continue at any time.Bitcoin, Daily Chart as of February 2nd, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, the correction of the last three weeks had created a pretty oversold situation and thus a low-risk entry opportunity. Now that bitcoin quickly recovered from those lows around US$29,000, the good low-risk set up is certainly gone. Especially since a third attack pullback US$29,000 would now have to be interpreted as weakness.But although the 200-day moving average (US$16,738) as well as the established support zone at US$20,000 are far away from current pricing around US$34,000, the setup looks promising. Based on the principle that a trend in motion is more likely to continue than to suddenly turn around, it is important to look for entry opportunities on the long side only (“buy the dip”). Bitcoin now has to surpass its recent high above US$38,600 to establish a short-term series of higher lows and higher highs. This would shift the daily chart clearly back into bullish territory.Overall, the daily chart is coming out of an oversold setup recovering quickly, but somehow is still stuck in a downtrend short-term. However, bitcoin has now been trading around and above USD 30,000 for more than four weeks already. This means that a base is being formed from which the rally should continue rather sooner than later.Sentiment Bitcoin – Consolidation brings new opportunitiesBitcoin Optix as of January 24th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe quantitative sentiment indicator “Bitcoin Optix” signaled a short-term exaggeration at the end of December and then especially at the beginning of January. However, the sharp pullback in the order of 31% completely cooled down any excessive optimism and even created a small panic among the weak hands in the short term.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of February 1st, 2021. Source: Crypto Fear & Greed Index The much more complex Crypto Fear & Greed Index, on the other hand, continues to measure an increased level of greed in the entire crypto sector. However, such conditions did persist for many months in the past.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of January 24th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn a long-term comparison, however, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also declined significantly and currently reflects a rather balanced sentiment picture.Overall, the overly optimistic sentiment has been cleared up surprisingly quickly due to the price decline from US$42,000 down to US$29,000. Hence, nothing stands in the way of a continuation of the rally from a sentiment perspective. Seasonality Bitcoin – Consolidation brings new opportunities –Bitcoin seasonality. Source: SeasonaxFrom a seasonal perspective, bitcoin has been most often moving sideways from mid o January until mid-April. Accordingly, the recently started correction could well drag on for at least a few more weeks.Bitcoin seasonality in bull market years. Source: SeasonaxHowever, if we only use the price development in bull market years, the data set shrinks to the years 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2017. But at the same time, it becomes clear that in these years bitcoin always found an important low between mid-January and mid-February.Overall, one would be well advised not to expect any exaggerated price explosions in the coming weeks. Statistically, these tend to occur in the months of April to June and October to December. However, the seasonal outlook for the next one to two months is not really unfavorable either.Sound-money: Bitcoin vs. GoldSound Money Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of January 25th, 2021. Source: ChaiaWith current prices of US$33,650 for one bitcoin and US$1,864 for one troy ounce of gold, the bitcoin/gold ratio is currently around 18.05, i.e., you currently have to pay more than 18 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. In other words, one troy ounce of gold currently costs only 0.055 bitcoin.Goldbug´s Achilles Heel, Source Midas Touch Consulting January 25th, 2021.This means that bitcoin´s outperformance against gold has clearly intensified in the past two months. An end to this major trend is not in sight. Quite the contrary, despite possible short-term fluctuations and countertrend moves, gold and silver are more likely to lose further against bitcoin.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in Bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and of 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to Bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is normally also invested in equities and real estate, more than 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile Bitcoin is already a lot!Opposites compliment. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the digital aspect of bitcoin you have a complimentary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro OutlookSource: Investing.comWith the inauguration of Joe Biden, the political circumstances in the USA have shifted significantly, but the loose monetary policy of the last twenty years is likely to continue and intensify significantly. The prices for gold and silver, as well as for bitcoin, will therefore continue to be driven upwards in the medium term by the constant expansion of the money supply.US Total Debt, © Holger Zschaepitz. Source Twitter @Schuldensuehner, 20. Januar 2021The monetary policy, backed by nothing but the blind trust of the citizens, had already led to an unprecedented debt orgy in the USA since the end of the gold standard in 1971. The record-high US national debt was further exacerbated by the Corona crisis in 2020 and is now rising parabolically. The same applies to pretty much all other countries and currency zones on our planet.Global Stock Market Cap, © Holger Zschaepitz.. Source Twitter @Schuldensuehner, 24. Januar 2021Driven by the constant currency creation, the market capitalization of global stock markets therefore continues to rise. It is important to realize that the stock markets no longer reflect the real economy as they used to. The only thing that matters is the constant expansion of liquidity via central bank balance sheets.Source: Bitcoin ResourcesThe unregulated and decentralized Bitcoin is therefore increasingly a thorn in the side of central bankers and politicians. After all, the irresponsible central bank policy can be recognized quite easily here. One can even say that in view of Bitcoin prices above US$30,000, the hyper-inflationary tendencies of fiat currencies are already becoming visible here. Whereas in the gold market one can always intervene in a depressing way on prices via so-called paper gold, the short-selling attacks on the Bitcoin markets are collapsing like a soufflé due to the digital scarcity. The decentralized structure of bitcoin is also a phenomenon that the technocrats will not be able to deal with, even with a ban.However, we have to assume that in the coming months or years there will be a concentrated attack on bitcoin by central bankers and politicians. However, the more institutional capital is invested in Bitcoin, the more difficult this undertaking will be.Source: Flipside CryptoA real point of criticism, on the other hand, is the extremely unbalanced distribution of the Bitcoins mined so far. Slightly more than 2% of the wallets hold 95% of the Bitcoins. This threatens to create a new power structure that can manipulate Bitcoin prices in its favor at will.Bitcoin – Consolidation brings new opportunitiesSource: Messari December 28th, 2020Bitcoin is undoubtedly in the middle of a new bull market. The final top has not yet been reached by a long shot. Prices around US$100,000 and possibly even above US$300,000 are quite conceivable in the next 10 to 24 months. The main drivers will be an institutional buying spree, as these institutional investors will come under an increasing pressure due to rising prices.Of course, there will be some brutal pullbacks on the way to higher prices. To be able to profit from this bull market, you need to be patient. And you really need to have internalized the so-called “Hodl” strategy.In summary, bitcoin is consolidating at high level trying to build a new base. This consolidation may well last a few more weeks and could also bring lower prices. More likely, however, is a continuation of the rally towards US$50,000 in the near future already.Source: Regard NewsAlso, it more an more smells like “altcoin season”. Bitcoin prices have already doubled from the old all-time high. Then, in the last four weeks, Ethereum also reached its December 2017 high around US$1,400. In the next phase, Ethereum should outperform Bitcoin. Afterwards, the smaller altcoins will explode. This time, the highflyers are likely to be in the booming DeFi sector. However, anyone who wants to play along here has to practice tough risk management and take profits regularly and quickly.Analysis sponsored and initially published on January 26th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running is own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.Florian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.eu

In line with expectations and probabilities, the stock bulls returned, and I closed Friday initiated long position for a solid 40-point gain in S&P 500! All right, but are the bulls as strong as might seem from looking at this week‘s price performance? Such were my yesterday‘s words: (…) is this the dreaded sizable correction start, or the general February weakness I warned about a week ago? I‘m still calling for the S&P 500 to be in a bullish uptrend this quarter and next, though I‘m not looking for as spectacular gains as in the 2020 rebound. That‘s still my call. Fears from the Fed talking taper contours, GameStop and silver squeeze are taking a back seat to the realities of leading economic indicators rising, stimulus coming, and the central bank more than willing to mop it up. Commodities are red hot, leading precious metals, and inflation will rear its ugly head this year for sure. The momentary dollar resilience which I called both preceding Mondays to happen, will give way to much lower values. Twin deficits are a curse. Such were my observations on gold – please read yesterday‘s extensive analysis. It‘s one of the most important ones written thus far on gold: (…) I don‘t see gold plunging to any dramatic number such as $1,700 but given that the dollar looks to have stabilized for now, and may even attempt a modest and brief rally from here, gold may get again under corresponding (and weak) pressure – should the silver squeeze be defeated. After the margin raise, it is certainly on the defensive now. Yet I see encouraging signs for the new precious metals upleg to emerge (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 Outlook I laid out the case clearly on Friday as to why we‘re witnessing another downswing lacking internal balance. We didn‘t have to wait long for the recovery from options expiry plunge, yet the volume leaves a little to be desired. Wasn‘t weak really, just Monday‘s regular, lower volume. Lower volume days can get challenged. I would prefer to see follow through in price advance coupled with a volume reading I could interpret positively so as to be able to call this correction as fully over. Credit Markets & Risk Metrics Both leading credit market ratios – high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) and investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) – are trading at their local lows, neither rising nor breaking below – given the bullish price action in S&P 500, I treat their short-term underperformance as a watchout. Volatility is still elevated, yet calming down – slowly but surely.That‘s pointing out we‘re in the latter stages of the correction. The put/call ratio has retreated again, reflecting my yesterday‘s point that the fear in the markets is in a generally declining trend. Both moving averages are still falling, and the spike didn‘t reach the pre-elections and early September peaks either. Still no change in sentiment, and we‘re well on the preceding path marking further stock market gains. Shining Light on Gold The king of metals is still ill positioned to keep the silver short squeeze gains. Yes, I am not trusting the daily indicators one bit, and look instead at the lower volume and repeated inability to keep intraday gains. This is the sign of an approaching upleg in the precious metals – miners rebounding relative to gold after preceding breakdown. Should the mining companies keep their relative gains, that would be encouraging for the whole sector. What if the stock market though puts the carefully laid plans to rest? The above chart shows that there has been in recent months no clear relationship either way and interconnectedness of reaction between the two assets. Let‘s stay objective and don‘t succumb to the plunge in stocks fear mongering. The gold to silver ratio is similarly to the $HUI:$GOLD ratio showing that the tide in precious metals is turning, and the time for the bears is running up. I like the fact that love trade is starting to kick in as opposed to fear trade. Love trade, that means rising preference for gold because the economy is doing better, while fear trade is about hiding in the bunker. On one hand, gold is vulnerable to rising (long-term Treasury) yields, and it‘s also lagging behind the commodity complex. It‘s also trading with the negative correlation to the dollar, which is set to put up a some fight in the short run again – please see my yesterday‘s extensive gold market analysis bring proof for these assertions as these form the short-term watchouts for the gold bulls. From the Readers‘ Mailbag Q: Hi Monica, I wanted to say a big thank you for responding to my question last week which I did find reassuring. Little did we see what a week we would have to follow hey, especially in silver. I know that it has to cross the Rubicon at $30 and hold but I would like to get your observations. Can silver get going now (you thought Spring more likely) I also like platinum and wondered what you see there and finally can gold shuffle of its winter blues sooner rather than later. A: Always welcome – it‘s common knowledge that I love to engage in discussion with readers and everyone concerned. I called for gold to get going through spring, and now with WallStreetBets, silver has sprung to life. Platinum I see as notoriously lagging behind, and its catalyst demand in a challenged market is one of the fundamental culprits – jewellery demand won‘t save it. Palladium has much better prospects, not to discuss the wild swings in rhodium to get an idea what PGMs can deliver. Gold is still within its basing pattern, and unless it attracts the attention of internet crowd (see my yesterday‘s reply on how to play the silver squeeze), will take its time in breaking higher. Look at the gold-silver ratio – it‘s the white metal‘s turn to deliver stronger returns now, which is in line with the economic recovery underway (silver is an industrial metal, too). Summary The stock market recovered, and looks set to digest today‘s premarket gains on top of Monday‘s ones, signifying that the correction is in its latter stages. Credit market recovery is a missing piece of the puzzle. Gold though isn‘t out of the woods yet in the short run, but I see its medium-term bullish case getting stronger even as it remains rangebound for now. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals. * * * * * All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Investors can buy stocks that fall into a wide variety of categories. There are growth stocks, which represent companies that are quickly expanding their businesses and reporting high revenue and/or earnings-per-share growth. Then there are value stocks, typically those with low stock valuations, as measured by various ratios such as price-to-earnings or price-to-sales. Finally, there are dividend stocks, which are companies that distribute cash to shareholders through periodic dividend payments. We believe investors looking for superior long-term returns should focus on the best dividend growth stocks, which are companies that offer the best of both worlds. The best dividend growth stocks, such as the Dividend Aristocrats, pay dividends to shareholders with the added bonus of dividend growth each year. We believe investors looking to generate long-term wealth should consider the Dividend Aristocrats. Dividend Aristocrats Overview The Dividend Aristocrats are a group of 65 stocks that have increased their dividends for at least 25 years in a row. There are additional criteria that must be satisfied in order to become a Dividend Aristocrat. For example, a company must be in the S&P 500 Index, have a market capitalization of at least $3 billion, and its shares must have a daily average volume traded of at least $5 million. The relative scarcity of the Dividend Aristocrats—which total 65 stocks out of more than 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index—demonstrates the difficulty in raising dividends each year for over 25 consecutive years. Such a long period of time will inevitably include recessions, and a variety of other global issues to deal with. For a company to be able to raise its dividend through so many challenges, it must have a strong business model that generates steady profits year after year. It must also have long-term growth potential, and a shareholder-friendly management team that understands the importance of raising dividends each year. Another advantage of the Dividend Aristocrats is that many of them have significantly higher yields than the broader market average. For instance, the S&P 500 Index as a whole currently has an average dividend yield of 1.5%. Meanwhile, the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (NOBL), the major exchange-traded fund that tracks the Dividend Aristocrats, currently yields 2.2%. Investors can purchase a basket of all Dividend Aristocrats with NOBL, or purchase the individual stocks, many of which have even higher yields than NOBL. For example, People’s United Financial (PBCT) is a Dividend Aristocrat from the banking industry, with a high dividend yield of 5.2%. AT&T (T) is a Dividend Aristocrat with an even higher yield of 7%. Our top-ranked Dividend Aristocrat has an even higher yield than People’s United or AT&T. Our Top Dividend Aristocrat Today Exxon Mobil (XOM) is our top-ranked Dividend Aristocrat, and it is also the highest-yielding Dividend Aristocrat with a 7.7% yield. While higher-yielding stocks are often accompanied by elevated levels of risk, there are multiple quality Dividend Aristocrats with high dividend yields above 5%. In the case of Exxon Mobil, its abnormally high dividend yield is due to its plunging share price over the past few years alongside the drop in oil prices. The broader energy sector was under duress over the past few years, as a global supply glut put downward pressure on oil prices. Then, the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 had a major impact on global demand for oil, which served as an added headwind for oil stocks. Exxon Mobil has deployed aggressive cost-cutting to preserve its dividend in the short-term. The company announced plans to cut its capital expenses 30% in 2020. It also announced it will cut 15% of its global workforce to further cut costs. Over the long-term, the company expects the global oil price to rebound as the global economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. It is also betting its future on growing its production, which will be possible due to the company’s premier assets. The Permian will be a major growth driver, as the oil giant has about 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the area and expects to reach production of more than 1.0 million barrels per day in the area by 2025. Guyana, one of the most exciting growth projects in the energy sector, will be the other major growth driver of Exxon. The company has nearly tripled its estimated reserves in the area, from 3.2 billion barrels in early 2018 to nearly 9.0 billion barrels. Overall, Exxon Mobil expects to grow production by 25%, from 4 million barrels per day to 5 million barrels per day by 2025. We expect Exxon Mobil to grow earnings-per-share by 8% per year over the next five years, driven by a higher oil price as well as rising production. Although we view the stock as slightly overvalued at the present time, with a fair value price of $42 versus a current price of $46, we still see the stock as generating strong total returns. In addition to earnings-per-share growth, future returns will be driven by the high dividend yield of 7.7%. Overall, we see the potential for total returns to reach nearly 14% per year over the next five years, a highly attractive expected return for a Dividend Aristocrat. Final Thoughts Investors should not overlook the value of dividends. While growth stocks tend to receive much of the coverage in the financial media, dividend stocks have been proven to build wealth for shareholder over the long run. According to Standard & Poor’s, dividends have accounted for approximately one-third of the stock market’s total return since 1926. We believe the highest-quality dividend growth stocks, such as the Dividend Aristocrats, can generate superior long-term total returns.   By Bob Ciura of Sure Dividend

So how about GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC)? That Silver short-squeeze? Fighting the man? That was fun while it lasted.I don't want to lecture anyone or say that I told you so. During one of my newsletters last week, I even said that I tip my hat to anyone who profited from this—all the respect in the world.Me personally, though, I would never trade like this. Monday (Feb. 1) and Tuesday's market (Feb. 2) was nothing more than a reality check. GameStop's stock has lost nearly half of its value, and other Reddit darlings like AMC, Blackberry (BB), Koss (KOSS), and Silver (SLV) tanked.Stocks don't go up forever.Stonks especially don’t.Who knows, maybe the party's not over. But I think the plummet in the Reddit stocks was bound to happen. Bubbles always eventually pop.The market seems happy that the earth is back on its axis in stockland. The indices have recovered nearly all of last week's losses already.I didn't call the GameStop short-squeeze, but I had called last week's downturn for a while. The recovery so far this week wasn't entirely surprising either.Be that as it may, I remain concerned about complacency in the markets and overstretched valuations, plus the potential return of inflation. But the breather last week was needed and brought the indices to less overbought levels.Generally, investors and analysts are bullish these days. According to a recent Bank of America survey of 194 money managers, bullishness on stocks is at a three-year high, and the average share of cash in portfolios, which is usually a sign of protection from market turmoil, is at the lowest level since May 2013.We have still not declined 10% from the record highs- the minimum needed for a correction. Although the market needed last week's downturn, we're once again mostly right where we were several days ago.I know what you’re thinking. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are the latest companies to crush their earnings estimates, how could we possibly have a correction?For one, there are still things to be concerned about from a public health and economic perspective.We are also long overdue for one. We haven't seen one since last March. Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.We're no longer as close to those same BUY levels as we were after market close on Friday. But we're not quite at SELL again, and I still think we're a few pullbacks away from making more BUY calls with conviction. In other words, welcome to no man's land.In my last newsletter, I cautioned against making manic moves and trading with emotions. We saw our worst week since October last week and declined in two of the previous three. Much of that was due to the GameStops and AMCs freaking out Wall Streeters. But I reminded you then, and I'll remind you again. Shares of Eastman Kodak surged by 1,481% in three days last July, and the broader market seems to have done just fine since then.Do not let the noise deter you from your goals. My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck.We're all in this together! Is It Safe to Buy Tech Again?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPEarnings season for tech stocks hit record numbers last week, and is set to continue this week with Amazon and Alphabet clobbering estimates. Usually, when investors get what they expect, it’s more of a reason to sell rather than buy.But the Nasdaq so far this week has already recovered almost all of last week’s losses, and then some.I’m not ready to call this a BUY though, or recommend buying into momentum. There are still concerns. Tech valuations, especially the tech IPO market, terrify me. SPACs don’t help either. The Nasdaq last week declined to a more "normal" level, and in the span of two days, hit an RSI approaching 63 again.Last week's decline was needed, but there are still echoes of the dot-com bubble 20-years ago. I remain bullish on earnings and tech sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech for 2021, but please monitor the RSI.The RSI is how I have called the Nasdaq since December. While an overbought or oversold RSI does not automatically mean a trend reversal, it has with the Nasdaq.The Nasdaq pulled back on December 9 after exceeding an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back again after passing 70 again around Christmas time. We also exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year, and what happened on the first trading day of 2021? A decline of 1.47%.When I changed my Nasdaq call from a HOLD to a SELL on January 11 after the RSI exceeded 70, the Nasdaq declined again by 1.45%.Before the Nasdaq exceeded an RSI over 73 prior to January 25th, I switched my call back to SELL, and the QQQ promptly declined 4.13% for the week.The Nasdaq is trading in a precise pattern.I still like tech and am bullish for 2021. But for now, I'm going to stay conservative and say HOLD.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Since the precious metals like to ride along with the EUR/USD, and the latest Eurozone data looks grim, what are the implications for the PMs?Just when everyone and their brother thought that silver was going straight to the moon… it plunged. And that’s not the end of the decline.Figure 1 – COMEX Silver FuturesI previously emphasized that silver’s volatile upswing is likely just temporary, and I discussed the Kondratiev cycle which implies much higher gold prices but not necessarily right away, because the value of cash (USD) would be likely to soar as well. The latter would likely trigger a temporary slide in gold – and silver.Well, was silver’s rally just temporary?This seems to have been the case. The white metal declined back below not only the 2020 highs, but also back below this year’s early high. Please remember that invalidations of breakouts have immediately bearish implications and we just saw more than one in case of silver.So far today (Feb. 3), silver is quiet, but let’s keep in mind that back in September, it took only a few sessions for the white precious metal to move from approximately the current price levels to about $22.Will silver slide as much shortly? This is quite likely, although the downswing doesn’t have to be as quick as it was in September.Terms like the silver shortage , the size of the silver market and silver manipulation became incredibly popular in the last couple of days, which - together with huge SLV volume, and this ETF’s inflows - confirms the dramatic increase in interest in this particular market. This is exactly what happens close to market tops: silver steals the spotlight while mining stocks are weak. I’ve seen this countless times , and in most cases, it was accompanied by multiple voices of people “feeling” that the silver market is about to explode. For example, please consider what happened in early September 2020 on both (above and below) charts. Silver jumped and almost reached its August 2020 high, while the GDX was unable to rally even to (let alone above) its mid-August high.Don’t get me wrong, I think that silver will soar in the following years and I’m not shorting silver (nor am I suggesting this) right now and in fact I haven’t been on the short side of the silver market for months. In fact, I expect silver to outperform gold in the final part of the next massive upswing, but… I don’t think this massive upswing has started yet.Gold had it’s nice post-Covid panic run-up, but it didn’t manage to hold its breakout above the 2011 highs, despite multiple dovish pledges from the Fed, the open-ended QE, and ridiculously low interest rates. Plus, while gold moved above its 2011 highs, gold stocks have barely corrected half of their decline from their 2011 highs. Compare that to when the true bull market started about two decades ago – gold miners were soaring and multiplying gold’s gains in the medium run.Let’s take a look at mining stocks, using the GDX ETF as a proxy for them.Figure 2 – VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Are miners weak right now? Of course, they are weak. It was not only silver that got attention recently, but also silver stocks . The GDX ETF is mostly based on gold stocks, but still, silver miners’ performance still affects it. And… GDX is still trading relatively close to the yearly lows. Silver moved a bit above its 2020 highs – did miners do that as well? Absolutely not, they were only able to trigger a tiny move higher.And based on yesterday’s decline, most of the recent run-up was already erased.Interestingly, the most recent move higher only made the similarity of this shoulder portion of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern to the left shoulder ( figure 2 - both marked with green) bigger. This means that when the GDX breaks below the neck level of the pattern in a decisive way, the implications are likely to be extremely bearish for the next several weeks or months.Due to the uncanny similarity between the two green rectangles, I decided to check what happens if this mirror-similarity continues. I used purple, dashed lines for that. There were two important short-term price swings in April 2020 – one shows the size of the correction and one is a near-vertical move higher.Copying these price moves (purple lines) to the current situation, we get a scenario in which GDX (mining stocks) moves to about $31 and then comes back up to about $34. This would be in perfect tune with what I wrote previously. After breaking below the head-and-shoulders pattern, gold miners would then be likely to verify this breakdown by moving back up to the neck level of the pattern. Then, we would likely see another powerful slide – perhaps to at least $24.All in all, it seems that silver’s run-up was just a temporary phenomenon and the next big medium-term move in the precious metals and mining stocks is going to be to the downside.Having said that, let’s take a look at the markets from the fundamental point of view.EUR-on to SomethingFor weeks , I’ve been warning that the fundamental disconnect between the U.S. and Eurozone economies could pressure the EUR/USD.And on Jan. 29, I wrote:The economic divergence between Europe and the U.S. continues to widen. On Jan. 28, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that U.S. GDP (advanced estimate) likely expanded by 4.0% in the fourth-quarter.Figure 3Making its counter move, Eurozone fourth-quarter GDP was released on Feb. 2, revealing that the European economy shrank by 0.7% (the red box below). Even more revealing, France and Italy – Europe’s second and third-largest economies – underperformed the bloc average, contracting by 1.3% and 2.0% respectively (the blue box below).Figure 4 - Source: EurostatIn addition, German retail sales (released on Feb. 1) declined by 9.6% in December – well below the 2.6% contraction expected by economists. And why is this relevant? Because the month-over-month decline was the largest since 1956 and speaks volumes coming from Europe’s largest economy.Please see below:Figure 5If that wasn’t enough, Spain’s (Europe’s fourth-largest economy) Q4 GDP inched up by only 0.40% (the red box below). And not only did the figure come in well below the Spanish government’s December estimate (of an increase of 2.40%), the country’s exports declined by 1.4%, while business investment plunged by 6.2% (the blue boxes below).Figure 6 - Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística (Spain’s National Statistics Institute)Moreover, as the fiscal situation worsens across Europe’s four-largest economies, the European Central Bank (ECB) has no choice but to pick up the slack. As of Feb. 2, the ECB’s balance sheet now totals more than 70% of Eurozone GDP (up from 69%). More importantly though, the figure is more than double the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) 34.5% (down from 35%).Please see below:Figure 7Thus, while the ECB’s money printer works overtime relative to the FED’s, the dominoes are lining up for a material fall:The ECB’s relative outprinting causes the FED/ECB ratio to declineA declining FED/ECB ratio causes the EUR/USD to declineA declining EUR/USD causes the precious metals to declineTo explain, please see below:Figure 8The red line above depicts the movement of the EUR/USD, while the green line above depicts the FED/ECB ratio. As you can see, when the green line rises (the FED is outprinting the ECB), the EUR/USD also tends to rise. Conversely, when the green line falls (the ECB is outprinting the FED), the EUR/USD tends to fall.As it stands today, the FED/ECB ratio has declined by 0.26% week-over-week and is down by nearly 18% since June. And if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the EUR/USD is starting to notice. As the FED/ECB ratio tracks lower, the EUR/USD is starting to roll over. And if history is any indication, the EUR/USD has plenty of catching up to do.Also signaling a profound EUR/USD decline, I warned on Jan. 27 that the EUR/GBP could be the canary in the coal mine.On Monday (Jan. 25), I wrote that Janet Yellen’s pledge to “act big” on the next coronavirus relief package ushered the EUR/GBP back above critical support.However, on Tuesday (Jan. 26), the key level broke again.Please see below:Figure 9More importantly though, a break in the EUR/GBP could be an early warning sign of a forthcoming break in the EUR/USD.Figure 10If you analyze the chart above, ~20 years of history shows that the EUR/GBP and the EUR/USD tend to follow in each other’s footsteps. As a result, if the EUR/GBP retests its April low (the next support level), the EUR/USD is likely to tag along for the ride (which implies a move back to ~1.08).As it stands today, the wheels are already in motion. On Feb. 2, the EUR/GBP made another fresh low and the initial support level is all but gone.Figure 11Furthermore, notice how the EUR/USD is tracking the EUR/GBP lower? Despite being a fair distance from the ~1.08 level, the euro’s weakness relative to sterling is a sign that the Eurozone calamity is finally starting to weigh on its currency.If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the EUR/USD has already broken below its December and January support.Figure 12More importantly though, we could be approaching a point of no return.Figure 13Barely breaking out of a roughly 12-year downtrend, the EUR/USD has yet to invalidate the declining long-term resistance line. As a result, and with the EUR/USD already rolling over, a break below the 1.16/1.17 level puts ~1.08 well within the range of the 2015/2016 lows.And how could this affect the PMs?Well, notice how they like to tag along for the EUR/USD’s ride?Figure 14Despite silver’s short squeeze providing a short-term reprieve, it’s no surprise that the EUR/USD’s weakness has been met with angst by the PMs.Please see below:Figure 15As a result, the floundering euro is ushering the PMs down a one-way street. And while they may veer off to view the scenery from time to time, they all remain on a path to lower prices. Thus, yesterday’s sell-off highlights the superficiality of Monday’s (Feb. 1) surge. But while finding a true bottom requires time and patience, once it occurs, the PMs long-term uptrend will resume once again.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Is this week, dare I say, the first "normal" week of 2021? Let’s take a look at what has happened in January so far in what is supposed to be a more prosperous year than 2020.Six days into 2021, the Capitol saw its first insurrection since 1814.Two weeks later, we inaugurated a new president.A week later, we saw class warfare before our eyes when Redditors from the "WallStreetBets" subreddit took on hedge funds and won.After declining in two of the last four weeks, the indices haven't seen a single down day all week. If Friday (Feb. 5) futures stay the same, we might not have a down day all week.Bulls on parade.Good morning investors, thanks for finally caring about strong earnings and not paying attention to GameStop (GME) (that was fun while it lasted, though).The sentiment is rosey and for good reason. Earnings continue to crush. Some form of President Biden’s aggressive stimulus could also pass within days. Jobless claims fell for the third consecutive week and hit the lowest level since the end of November, labor market data looks strong, vaccines hit a record daily total on Thursday (Feb. 4) and could be distributed at CVS and Walgreens within days, and the 5-to-30 year treasury curve was the highest its been since March 2016.Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also just applied to the FDA for emergency use authorization for its one-dose vaccine. If approved, it could be game-changing.Happy days.My overheating and trading concerns in an overbought market remain, though, and have returned with a vengeance. I liked where many sectors and indices ended last week for potential BUY opportunities. This blazing win streak, though, is teetering on the edge of mania and overvaluation again.The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 hit new record closes yet again.Are we in a bubble? Maybe.I worry about complacency and overvaluation.The S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E ratio is back to nearly 22 and well above the 10-year average of 15.8. The Russell 2000 is also back at a historic high above its 200-day moving average. Tech stock valuations are even approaching dot-com bust levels, once again.According to a recent Bank of America survey of 194 money managers, bullishness on stocks is at a three-year high, and the average share of cash in portfolios, which is usually a sign of protection from market turmoil, is at the lowest level since May 2013.The market needed last week’s pullback, but it was nothing but a minor cooldown period thanks to Reddit in the grand scheme of things.We are long overdue for a correction. Corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).Well, hello, we haven’t seen one since last March!A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Four Days in a Row and Counting for the S&P 500... Figure 1- S&P 500 Large Cap Index $SPXHave you ever rooted so hard for a team that can frustrate and excite you at the same time? Rip off a 4-day winning streak, followed by a slump of losing 5 out of 6 games, then come back with another winning streak? Does it have you questioning if the team is outstanding or a mirage?If I could compare the S&P 500 to a team, it would probably be the Philadelphia 76ers.This index looks like a winner and seemingly rips off multiple-day winning streaks weekly. Now and then, though, it can show inconsistency, make you scratch your head, and go on a frustrating losing streak.Two weeks ago, the S&P was hovering around a record-high. Its forward P/E ratio was the highest since the dot-com bust, and the RSI consistently approached overbought levels.By the end of last week, it was nearly oversold.Now, this week? Its RSI is back above 60, we’re at another record high, we’re on a four-day winning streak (which could be five if futures remain in the green), and we’re at a forward 12-month P/E ratio at nearly 22 and well above the 10-year average of 15.8.I said before that once the S&P approaches a 3600-level, we can start talking about it as a BUY. Well, the index came pretty darn close to it last week, but it wasn’t enough for me. Despite this week’s rally, short-term concerns remain, with long-term optimism.To me, because of the RSI and how the index has traded, it remains a HOLD. But we’re teetA short-term correction could inevitably occur by the end of Q1 2021, but for now, I am sticking with the S&P as a HOLD.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the S&P, the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The EUR/USD has finally dipped back to long-term support around 1.20ish and I see a lot of bearish commentary around it. The bigger picture is still bullish as per the weekly chart, so I will be actively looking to go long on the first sign of a bull signal on the daily or lower time frames. The EUR/USD is potentially following the path of 2017-18 as per the chart. If correct, rates could head toward 1.25+ in the next couple of months or so. With the EUR/USD at these levels, the EUR/GBP and other euro crosses could find support. As a side note, this is why I decided that the private group should take profit on the first portion of their short trades on the EUR/GBP. It may be the incorrect decision, but there is nothing wrong with taking +123 to +169 pips profit on this slow-moving pair. The second portion can remain open in case it keeps going lower over time. This is the before/after chart of the EUR/GBP trade: Going back to the EUR/USD topic, I remain bullish on this pair because of the potential return to normalcy with COVID vaccines slowly being rolled out etc. I also think the ECB is done with providing additional measures. The next move is likely to be tapering of QE, but this won't happen any time soon.

Joe Biden’s election as president and his first economic proposal proved negative for gold prices, but the presidency might yet turn positive.The 46 th presidency of the United States has officially begun. What does that mean for the U.S. economy, politics and the precious metals market?Let’s start by noting that this will not be an easy presidency. The epidemic in the U.S. is raging, the economy is in recession , and public debt is ballooning. Foreign relations are strained while the nation is strongly polarized, as the recent riots clearly showed. So, Biden will have to face many problems, with few assets .First, as he turned 78 in November, Biden has been the oldest person ever sworn in as U.S. president. Second, his political capital is rather weak, as the 2020 election is more about Trump’s loss than Biden’s victory. In other words, many of his voters supported Biden not because of his merits but only because they opposed Trump. Third, he will have the smallest congressional majorities in several years. Democrats have only ten more seats than Republicans in the House and the same number of seats in the Senate. And even with Kamala Harris as a tie-breaker, Biden could not lose a single Democrat senator’s vote to pass any legislation in Senate.On the one hand, Biden’s tough political position seems to be negative for gold prices, as it lowers the odds of implementing the most radical, leftist political agenda. On the other hand, Biden’s difficulties also lower the chances of sound economic reforms, which is good news for the yellow metal. A divided Congress and Democratic Party with an old president at the helm, who has a weak personal base could result in political conflicts and stalemates which would prove positive for gold.When it comes to economics, Biden has already presented his pandemic aid bill, worth of $1.9 trillion. The proposal includes direct payments of $1,400 to households, $400 per week in supplementary unemployment benefits through September, billions of dollars for struggling businesses, schools, and local governments, as well as funding that would accelerate vaccination and support other coronavirus containment efforts. Biden also wants to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour, which will not appeal to Republicans. The big size of the package will also be disliked by the GOP.The fact that Democrats have won the Georgia Senate runoffs, taking control over the Senate, increases the chances that Biden will implement his economic stimulus. The equity markets welcomed the idea of another large aid package, in contrast to bond investors who sell Treasuries, causing the yields to go up. The increase in real interest rates pushed gold prices down , as the chart below shows.It seems that investors liked the idea of big stimulus, hoping for acceleration in economic growth. However, printing more money (I know, the Treasury technically doesn’t print money – but it issues bonds which are to a large extent bought by the Fed ) and sending checks to people doesn’t increase economic output. Another problem is that the U.S. can’t run massive fiscal deficits forever and ever , hoping that interest rates will always stay low.So, although Biden’s economic stimulus may add something to the GDP growth in the short-term, it will not fundamentally strengthen the economy. Quite the contrary, the massive increase in government spending and public debt (as well as in taxation) will probably hamper the long-term productivity growth and make the already fragile debt-based economic model even more fragile. What is really worrisome is that Biden doesn’t seem to care about U.S. indebtedness – he has already spoken strongly against deficit worries and hasn’t proposed any actions to reduce the debt – and plans to unveil the additional economic stimulus.Hence, although gold declined initially in a response to Biden’s economic stimulus proposal, the new president could ultimately turn out to be positive for the yellow metal. After all, gold declined in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers’ collapse , but it shined under Barack Obama’s first presidency. And Biden is likely to be even more fiscally irresponsible than Obama (or Trump), while the Fed under Powell is likely to even more monetarily irresponsible than under Bernanke (or Yellen ). Indeed, according to The Economist , Biden’s proposal is worth about nine percent of pre-crisis GDP, nearly twice the size of Obama’s aid package in the aftermath of the Great Recession . And, in contrast to previous crises, the Fed has announced the desire to overshoot its inflation target. All these factors should support gold prices in the long run.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

We took for many months the stands of a Permabull in Silver and still do. Our primary call for acquiring physical Silver might find some hurdles. You might not get any. When we started in March of last year at the price of US$12 to urge for acquiring physical Silver holdings, we already experienced the vast percentage difference between the spot price and the actual acquisition price of Silver. This phenomenon persists to the present day. And what to do if one can’t purchase real Silver anymore?We look at the markets primarily from the perspective of risk. As long as you do not have too dramatic pullbacks (= a homogeneous equity curve), you can always recover from a temporary setback. After all, not every investment idea might work out.If Silver’s physical acquisition should come to a halt, we find mining stock ownership to be an excellent second choice.Here is why. Leveraged positions like ETFs, futures, and options allow special restrictions made by brokers and clearinghouses tied with their firms’ positions. Large players like this can also go belly up, especially in six sigma events. In that case, it is essential to find liquidity, the ability to transfer positions from one broker/clearinghouse to another, and mostly to liquidate positions. An option they may deny you through their regulative powers.Sil, Global Silver Miners ETF, Weekly Chart, ETFs might look good, but they aren’t:SIL Global X FDS Global X Silver Miners ETF in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 4th, 2021.  Monthly Chart of Silver, Think long term and win:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 4th, 2021.While Silver’s smaller time frames can be intimidating at times due to their volatility and recent limelight in the news, the larger monthly time frame clearly shows the health of the trend in motion and the long term opportunity.With this bigger picture in place, mining stocks will follow the uptrend.Daily Chart, Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, The profit maze of Silver:Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, daily chart as of February 4th, 2021.There is a vast array of choices to participate in mining stocks. You can employ various strategies like buying the market leaders or underdogs, for example. In this field, evaluation can change quickly based on depository discoveries, soil sample quality and many other factors. Another point of consideration is the accessibility of stock depending on the country you are trading from, which exchanges you can access.The above chart depicts the stock price of our sponsor Reyna Silver which we find undervalued and very attractive as a long-term investment. Stocks in this price range have the advantage that not too much of your money is parked long term. And still percentage returns can be substantial. (Disclaimer: Please note that Reyna Silver is the sponsor of our weekly silver chartbook).In this specific case, you can see that there is excellent support at CA$0.98 from a volume analysis perspective, right below where prices trade for a low-risk entry on a long-term time horizon.The profit maze of Silver:While we hold physical Silver in the highest regard to risk-averse wealth preservation (next to Gold and Bitcoin), additional investments in mining stocks are prudent. As a stockholder, you are a part-owner of a company with the acquired rights by law. From all the choices out there to participate in the Silver boom, mining stocks seem to be the ones with the smallest risk potential.With a goal of long term investing and wealth preservation, it is essential to look at investments from a risk perspective rather than leverage.Besides, many mining stocks pay dividends. That additional income flow can be reinvested, and one participates in the 8th miracle of the world: “Compound interest.” Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

One week, Reddit bandits take on hedge funds and win, pumping up stocks like GameStop and AMC while the broader market sees its worst decline since October.What a difference a week can make.The indices then see their most significant gains the next week since Joe Biden's election victory and don't see a down day all week.Now we're here- still amid a tug of war between sentiments. For now, though, things are looking rosy. That is, of course, unless you're Patrick Mahomes this morning.Can the market keep up it’s winning streak this week? It’s possible. But I’d be surprised if we don’t see at least one sharp pullback before this Friday (Feb. 12).Can the market keep up its winning streak this week? It's possible. But I'd be surprised if we don't see at least one sharp pullback this week.Despite tailwinds moving the markets right now, such as stimulus progress, an ever-improving vaccine delivery, the possibility of an effective one-dose vaccine from Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), falling COVID numbers, and an improving economic outlook based on consistently falling jobless claims and corporate earnings that continue to crush, I want you to be wary of complacency and overvaluation.Yes, I know I keep saying this. I also know that earnings are on pace to rise by over 20% in 2021. Since 1980, only 12 years have earnings increased by 15% or more. Except for 2018, the market gained an average of 12% in all of those years.But consider some valuation metrics that scream “bubble.”As of February 4, 2021, the Buffett Indicator , or the ratio of the total US stock market valuation to the GDP, was at a level not seen since the dotcom bubble. If you take the US stock market cap of $48.7 trillion and the estimated GDP of $21.7 trillion, we're nearly 224% overvalued and 84% above the historical average.With the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all currently trading at record closes, fears of a bubble are genuine. The S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E ratio is back to above 22 and well above the 10-year average of 15.8. The Russell 2000 is also back at a historic high above its 200-day moving average. Tech stock valuations are also approaching dot-com bust levels.Yes, the outlook is healthy and for good reason. According to a recent Bank of America survey of 194 money managers, bullishness on stocks is at a three-year high, and the average share of cash in portfolios, a sign of protection from market turmoil, is at its lowest level since May 2013.But always remember that when the market gets what it expects, and we’re expecting strength by mid-year, it’s usually a time to sell rather than buy.While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. They are also way more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. How Frothy is Tech Again?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPI remain bullish on tech. Its earnings continue to defy expectations with stocks like Amazon, Alphabet, PayPal, and eBay all crushing estimates last week. I’m also especially bullish on subsectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech for 2021.But please monitor the RSI.The Nasdaq is opening the week at another record high and is continuing to show strength. But there are clear echoes of the dotcom bubble 20-years ago, and the index has been trading in an RSI-based pattern.Let’s break down the Nasdaq since December and how it has reacted whenever the RSI has exceeded 70.December 9- exceeded an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back.January 4- exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year, and declined 1.47%.January 11- declined by 1.45% after exceeding a 70 RSI.Week of January 25- Exceeded an RSI of over 73 before the week, and declined 4.13% for the week.Every single time the RSI exceeded 70, I switched my Nasdaq call to a SELL.Why?The Nasdaq is trading in a precise pattern.The RSI is at around 67.50 so I’m not ready to switch my call again. But I am a bit concerned. Tech valuations, especially the tech IPO market, terrify me. SPACs don’t help either.The ratio of market value to total revenues has also not been this high since the dotcom bust.I still like tech and am bullish for 2021. But for now, I'm going to stay conservative and say HOLD while monitoring the RSI.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Stocks keep cooling off at their highs, and calling for a correction still seems to be many a fool‘s errand. Does it mean all is fine in the S&P 500 land? Largely, it still is.Such were my yesterday‘s words:(…) It‘s still strong the stock market bull, and standing in its way isn‘t really advisable. With the S&P 500 at new highs, and the anticipated slowdown in gains over Friday, where is the momentary balance of forces?Still favoring the bulls – that‘s the short answer before we get to a more detailed one shortly.The anticipaded gold rebound is underway, and my open long position is solidly profitable right now. In line with the case I‘ve been making since the end of January, the tide has turned in the precious metals, and we are in a new bull upleg, which will get quite obvious to and painful for the bears. Little noted and commented upon, don‘t forget though about my yesterday‘s dollar observations, as these are silently marking the turning point I called for, and we‘re witnessing in precious metals:(…) The weak non-farm employment data certainly helped, sending the dollar bulls packing. It‘s my view that we‘re on the way to making another dollar top, after which much lower greenback values would follow. Given the currently still prevailing negative correlation between the fiat currency and its shiny nemesis, that would also take the short-term pressure of the monetary metal(s). What would you expect given the $1.9T stimulus bill, infrastructure plans of similar price tag, and the 2020 debt to GDP oh so solidly over 108%? Inflation is roaring – red hot copper, base metals, corn, soybeans, lumber and oil, and Treasury holders are demanding higher yields especially on the long end (we‘re getting started here too). Apart from the key currency ingredient, I‘ll present today more than a few good reasons for the precious metals bull to come roaring back with vengeance before too long.Finally, I‘ll bring you an oil market analysis today as well. So, let‘s dive into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsA strong chart with strong gains, and the volume isn‘t attracting either much buying or selling interest. That smacks of continued accumulation, with little in terms of clearly warning signs ahead.The market breadth indicators are all very bullish, and pushing for new highs, as the caption points out precisely.The intermediate picture remains one of strength.Credit Markets and TechnologyHigh yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is powering higher significantly stronger than the investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) one. The bullish spirits are clearly running high in the markets.Technology (XLK ETF) as the leading heavyweight S&P 500 sector, keeps charging higher vigorously after not so convincing post-Aug performance. Crucially, its current advance is well supported by the semiconductors (XSD ETF – black line), meaning that apart from the rotational theme I‘ve been been mentioning last Thursday, we have the key tech sector firing on all cylinders still.Gold & SilverLet‘s overlay the gold chart with silver (black line). The disconnect since the Nov low should be pretty obvious, and interpreted the silver bullish way I‘ve been hammering for weeks already. Please also note that the white metal has been outperforming well before any silver squeeze caught everyone‘s attention.Let‘s go on with gold and the miners (black line). See that end Jan dip I called as fake? Where are we now? Miners are no longer underperforming, and the stage is set for a powerful rise.Just check the gold miners to silver miners view to get an idea of how much the white metal‘s universe is leading everything gold. Another powerful testament to the nascent bull upleg in the precious metals.Continuing with gold and long-term Treasuries (black line), we see that the king of metals isn‘t giving in. Instead, it‘s rising in the face plunging Treasuries that are offering higher yields now. No, the yellow metal is decoupling here, as the new precious metals upleg is getting underway. The greenback is the culprit – and again in my yesterday‘s analysis, I called the headwinds it‘s running into. The world reserve currency will indeed get under serious pressure and break down to new lows as the important local top is being made.From the Readers‘ Mailbag - OilQ: "Hi Monica, I am glad I found you after you 'disappeared' from Sunshine Profits! As you had been back then already covering gold and oil at times, I wonder what's your take on black gold right now. A little great birdie told me oil will be the next Tesla for 2021 - what's your take?"A: I am also happy that you found me too! Thankfully, my „disappearance“ is now history. I‘ll gladly keep commenting, in total freedom, on any question dear readers ask me. Back in autumn 2020, seeing the beaten down XLE, I wrote that energy is ripe for an upside surprise. I was also featuring the fracking ETF (FRAK) back then. Both have risen tremendously, and it‘s my view that the oil sector (let‘s talk $WTIC) is set for strong gains this year, and naturally the next one too. Think $80 per barrel. Part of the answer is the approach to „dirty“ energy that strangles supply, and diverts resources away from exploitation and exploration. Not to mention pipelines. Did you know that the overwhelming majority of ‚clean‘ energy to charge electric cars, comes from coal? And that the only coal ETF (KOL) which I also used to feature back in autumn, closed shop? Oil is clearly the less problematic energy solution than coal.These are perfect ingredients for an energy storm to hit the States by mid decade. I offer the following chart to whoever might think that oil is overvalued here. It‘s not – it‘s just like all the other commodities, sensing inflation hitting increasingly more.SummaryThe stock market keeps powering higher, and despite the rather clear skies ahead, a bit of short-term caution given the speed of the recovery and its internals presented, is in place. Expect though any correction to be a relatively shallow one – and new highs would follow, for we‘re far away from a top.The gold and silver bulls are staging a return, as last week‘s price damage is being repaired. The signs of a precious metals bull, of a new upleg knocking on the door, abound – patience will be rewarded with stellar gains.Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals.Thank you,Monica KingsleyStock Trading SignalsGold Trading Signalswww.monicakingsley.comk@monicakingsley.co* * * * *All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The EUR/CHF is a forgotten currency pair and rightly so because it hardly moves. So why bother writing about it? Well, I think it is about to start trending higher again and become more active. Don't expect it to behave like Bitcoin or the Dow, but it should provide a good, stable, trade for the bulls given the ongoing "risk-on" sentiment. I have recently written bullish forecasts on the GBP/CHF due to Brexit being avoided etc., and the private group ledges have benefitted from this pair already, as you can see from the following before/after charts: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com But like the pound, the euro could now also climb higher, especially against haven currencies like the franc and yen as we hopefully head towards more normal times ahead later this year. Anyway, straight to the point: the EUR/CHF monthly is looking bullish to me: Source: TradingCandles.com and TradingView.com The monthly chart shows the long-term bullish trend has been defended for several months now and rates have broken above the bearish channel. The path of least resistance is to the upside again. It is a very slow-moving pair, so if you do trade it long, make sure you don't expect the moon, and too quick. But the key takeaway point from this article is that the forgotten currency pair could be about to pop higher and become mainstream for FX traders again.

Technically, the Dow and S&P snapped their 7-day winning streak.Technically.I hardly consider a decline of 0.03% and 0.11% for the Dow and S&P, respectively, a down day.Meanwhile, the Nasdaq and Russell saw a record close for who knows how many consecutive days.Can the market keep this up? Who even knows anymore. Everything seems to defy expectations and logic. Yeah, it's possible. But I'd be surprised if we don't see at least one sharp pullback before the end of the week.The sentiment is surely rosy right now. The economic recovery appears to be gaining steam, and the Q1 decline everyone predicted might not be as swift as we anticipated- if at all. President Biden's stimulus could officially pass within days as well and provide much-needed relief to struggling businesses and families.Have you seen the vaccine numbers lately, too? More people in the U.S. have now been vaccinated than total cases. On Monday (Feb. 8), vaccine doses outnumbered new cases 10-1. New daily COVID cases have also reached their lowest levels since October.With Johnson and Johnson's (JNJ) one dose vaccine candidate seemingly days away from FDA approval, the outlook is certainly more positive at this point than many anticipated.But we're not out of the woods yet, and three non-pandemic related factors still concern me- complacency, overvaluation, and inflation.Jim Cramer's "Seven Deadly Sins" from Mad Money Monday night (Feb. 8) reflect many of my concerns too:Source: CNBCYes, I know I keep saying to beware. I also know that earnings are on pace to rise by over 20% in 2021. Since 1980, only 12 years have earnings increased by 15% or more. Except for 2018, the market gained an average of 12% in all of those years.But consider some valuation metrics that scream “bubble.”As of February 4, 2021, the Buffett Indicator , or the ratio of the total US stock market valuation to the GDP, was at a level not seen since the dotcom bubble. If you take the US stock market cap of $48.7 trillion and the estimated GDP of $21.7 trillion, we're nearly 224% overvalued and 84% above the historical average.Keep in mind; this chart was dated February 4. This number has only grown since then. Tuesday (Feb. 9) was hardly a down day. If anything, it was plain dull.Fears of a bubble are genuine. The S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E ratio is back to above 22 and well above the 10-year average of 15.8. The Russell 2000 is also back at a historic high above its 200-day moving average. Tech stock valuations are again approaching dot-com bust levels.Bank of America also believes that a market correction could be on the horizon due to signs of overheating.While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. They are also way more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.Bank of America also echoed this statement and said that “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and ‘as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”The key word here- buyable.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Small-Caps are Officially Overbought Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)This pains me to write this because I love Russell 2000 small-cap index in 2021.But this is getting ridiculous now.As tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , small-cap stocks have been on a rampage since November. Since the close on October 30, the IWM has gained nearly 50% and more than doubled ETFs' returns tracking the larger indices. What happened to the Nasdaq being red hot? This chart makes it look like an igloo.Since the close on January 29, the Russell has done just about the same again and gained 11.10%. It’s outperformed all the other major indices by a minimum of 5% in that period.Not to mention, year-to-date, it’s already up a staggering 18%.Small-caps are funny. They either outperform and underperform and can be swayed easily by the news. I foresaw the pullback two weeks ago coming for over a month, and unfortunately, I see the same thing happening now. But only for the short-term.I remain bullish due to aggressive stimulus, which could be put in motion this week.I also love small-cap stocks for the long-term, especially as the world reopens and this Biden agenda gets put in motion. It seems like things are finally trending in the right direction.For now, though, the index is once again overbought.The RSI is at a scorching 75, and I can't justify calling this a BUY or HOLD right now. It's an excellent time to take profits.SELL and take profits. If and when there is a deeper pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Does gold’s most recent rally and the inflow of capital into silver change the fundamental outlook of the PMs? If so, what about equities?In short, yes, the U.S. dollar is down, thereby boosting gold. Yes, the recent massive interest in silver has everyone talking about getting in on the action. However, one must remember that markets don’t move in a straight line and countertrend rallies are expected along the way. Keep your eye on the ball. Now, let’s examine what exactly is happening.Gold moved higher once again yesterday (Feb. 9), but it reversed and declined before the closing bell. Miners declined as well. Does it mean that the next top is in or about to be in? That’s exactly what it means. Especially considering that gold’s reversal took place almost right at the triangle-vertex-based reversal and during USD’s breakout’s verification.Figure 1 - USD IndexI previously wrote that because assets don’t move in a straight line, it’s plausible that the USD Index retests its declining resistance line, while gold retests its rising support line. If this occurs, the USDX is likely to decline to the 90.6 range, while gold will receive a short-term boost . I emphasized that the outcome does not change their medium-term trends and the above confirmations signal that the USDX is heading north and gold is heading south.The part that I put in bold is exactly what is being realized right now. The USDX is correcting after the breakout, likely verifying the previous resistance as support.Unless the USDX breaks back below the declining medium-term support line in a meaningful way, the bullish implications for the following weeks will remain intact. At the moment of writing these words, the USD Index is practically right at the support line, which means that it’s quite likely to reverse shortly.Figure 2 - COMEX Gold FuturesGold formed a reversal yesterday, but it ended the session slightly higher. The latter might seem bullish, until one compares that to the size of the daily decline in the USD Index. The move lower in the latter was quite visible, so what we saw in gold should be viewed as USDX’s underperformance and thus a bearish sign.Let’s keep in mind that gold was just at its triangle-vertex-based reversal (based on the declining black resistance line and the rising red support line), which perfectly fits the shape of yesterday’s session – the shooting star reversal candlestick. The implications are bearish.Today, gold moved slightly higher, but the move was too small to change anything. Gold didn’t move above yesterday’s intraday high, which means that the short-term top might already be in.What about silver, did the white metal change anything?Figure 3 - COMEX Silver FuturesNot really. Just like gold, silver is taking a breather after the increased volatility. This is normal.Speaking of silver, please note how big the silver inflows were last week.Figure 4This might seem bullish at first sight – a lot of capital entering the silver market is bound to push the silver price higher, right?Wrong. This could simply be an indication of a temporary (yet massive) increase in the white metal’s potential (which no doubt will be realized, but not necessarily yet), which is something that we tend to see at market tops along with increased interest in terms like “ silver squeeze ” or “ silver manipulation ”.Please compare the first spike that you can see on the above chart with what silver did next (on the following chart).Figure 5Silver declined severely in the first half of 2013. Also please note that at that time, the silver market was already well after the massive monthly volume spike. We saw the same thing in mid-2020.The outlook for silver is very bullish for the next years, but the implications of the above factors are very bearish for the medium term.This is especially the case, since silver and mining stocks tend to decline particularly strongly if the stock market is declining as well. And while the exact timing of the market’s slide is not 100% clear, stocks’ day of reckoning is coming . And it might be very, very close.Eyes Wide ShutAs the NASDAQ Composite records yet another all-time high, investors are sleepwalking through one of the most dangerous equity markets ever.On Feb. 4, I warned that fund managers’ cash positions were frighteningly low.I wrote:Mutual fund managers are now holding less than 2% of their portfolios in cash – an all-time low.Figure 6 - Source: SentimenTraderMoreover, with fear of missing out (FOMO) taking a sledgehammer to valuation, pension funds are also following the bad behavior. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that pension fund cash positions have fallen to 2.6% – also an all-time low.Figure 7 - Source: SentimenTraderAnd with daydreams of riches continuing to transfix rationality, the upward inertia has left equity bears nearly extinct. As of Jan. 15 (the latest data available), S&P 500 short interest has hit its lowest level since the peak of the dot-com bubble.Please see below:Figure 8To explain the importance, fund managers’ cash positions and short sellers are akin to airbags in your car. In the event of a crash, airbags serve their purpose by cushioning the blow. Similarly, when the market crashes, short-sellers cover their positions (by purchasing the underlying asset), helping to alleviate the downward impact. Similarly, when fund managers’ cash positions are high, they have more ‘dry powder’ at their disposal to hit the bid and support prices. As a result, with both variables being excommunicated, nearly every investor is now driving with their pedal to the metal.Also encapsulating the speculative euphoria, last week, technology companies recorded their highest-ever weekly inflow.Please see below:Figure 9And not to be outdone, the Russell 2000 (a proxy for U.S. small caps) is also earning its fair share of speculative gold medals. On Feb. 4, I warned that money was pouring into companies that are on the brink of financial distress.I wrote:Figure 10The red line above represents companies with ‘weak balance sheets.’ Essentially, these are companies with high leverage ratios that rely on a strong economic backdrop to service their debt. At the end of 2019, these companies made up roughly 6% of the Russell 2000 index. Today, that figure has nearly doubled to an all-time high of more than 11%.Moreover, amid investors’ foray into the riskiest corners of the U.S. equity market, they’ve also bid the Russell 2000 (as of Feb. 8) to more than 39% above its 200-day moving average (also an all-time high).Please see below:Figure 11 - Source: thedailyshot.comIgnoring a sound diet, bond investors also continue to feast on junk food. On Feb. 8, the average yield on junk bonds (represented by Barclays U.S. Corporate High-Yield index) fell below 4% for the first-time ever.Please see below:Figure 12In addition, issuances of CCC-rated debt – the riskiest tier of junk – have been massively oversubscribed , as yield-hungry investors throw caution to the wind. More importantly though, the frenzy has lured even riskier companies to the market, with the group raising a record $52 billion in January alone.Even more indicative of the reckless behavior, the riskiest companies are also negotiating the riskiest loan terms. Peddling payment-in-kind (PIK) interest, junk bond issuers are now paying investors with IOUs. Unlike traditional bonds, where fixed cash flows are paid at pre-defined dates, PIK bonds are essentially loans on top of loans. Here, investors forego cash payments and add hypothetical interest payments to their bond’s principal balance. Then, at maturity, investors receive the entire proceeds.And what’s the problem?Well, as I’m sure you can tell, the IOUs are worthless if insolvency strikes first.Moving up the speculative ladder, in January, small traders bought call options at nearly 9x their 2019 pace. For context, ‘ s mall traders’ purchase 10 or less call option contracts and have exposure to 1,000 shares or less. As such, they’re usually the least sophisticated market participants.But because their Delta/Gamma splurge continues to impact dealers’ hedging activity, U.S. equity volume has gone completely parabolic. On Feb. 8, U.S. equities (trading at record prices) exchanged hands at nearly 4x their historical average.Please see below:Figure 13In addition, as more and more first-time buyers dip their toes into the equity pool, the ripple can be felt across Google Search trends. As of Feb. 8, online searches for “penny stocks” have exploded.Figure 14 - Source: thedailyshot.comEven more telling, retail interest in the stock market usually peaks during bouts of volatility. In a nutshell: when the stock market crashes and news outlets cover the story (that otherwise wouldn’t during normal times), it piques the interest of the general public. As a result, crashes tend to bring about investing tourists.Please see below:Figure 15 - Source: SentimenTraderTo explain the chart above, the blue line depicts the trend in “buy stocks” in Google searches over the last ~17 years. If you analyze the first two spikes in October 2008 and March 2020, they occurred alongside extreme market stress. However, if you look at the third spike on the right side of the chart (almost as high as March 2020), it’s occurred alongside U.S. equities current melt-up.The key takeaway?As the equity bubble grows larger, it’s sucking in more and more unsophisticated investors. However, as 2000 proved, overconfidence can give way to fear at the blink of an eye.As the final chart in today’s edition, investors’ belief in a utopian future has also come full circle.Please see below:Figure 16To explain, the white line above depicts the movement of Citigroup’s Global Risk Aversion Macro Index – which uses credit spreads, swap spreads and implied volatility to quantify investors’ perception of risk. As you can see, the index is now back to its pre-pandemic lows. More importantly though, the reading encapsulates all of the above and highlights the excessive complacency underwriting global equities.In conclusion, global stocks are living on a razor’s edge and their margin for error continues to dwindle. And due to gold and silver’s moderate-to-strong correlation with the S&P 500 (250-day correlations of 0.71 and 0.87 respectively), one false step could knock over the entire house of cards. As a result, it’s prudent to consider these cross-asset implications when assessing the future performance of the precious metals. However, once the events reach their precipice, the PMs will be able to resume their long-term uptrend.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Yesterday was a prelude, a little preview of things to come. We better get used to brief and shallow corrections again, after being lulled by the many preceding sessions. It appears that we‘re now going to get the consolidation period even as the overall S&P 500 metrics remain in a healthy territory. This is the (print-and-spend-happy) world we live in, and we better not fixate on the premature bubble pop talk too closely. I have been stating repeatedly that things have to get really ridiculous first, and this doesn‘t qualify yet in my view. So, for all the tech bashers, we‘re going higher – like it or not. Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Its Internals A second day of hesitation, this time with a thrust to the downside. Comfortably repelled, but still. Is it just one of a kind, or more would follow over the coming sessions? I think this corrective span has a bit further to run in time really. Remember my yesterday‘s words though – the bears are just rocking the boat, that‘s all. The caption describes nicely the mixed momentary situation in market breadth. I am looking especially at new highs new lows right now for whether they would be able to keep the relative high ground, or not, and what would accompany that. Now, it‘s amber light. A supportive warning sign comes from the put/call ratio – we‘re getting a bit too complacent here again. Well worth watching. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) wavered yesterday as well, yet bottom fishers appeared, pushing up the volume. The bond markets are clearly buying the dip here. High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is still lining up closely with the S&P 500 index. Pulling in tandem, these aren‘t showing any momentary divergence. When it comes to the high yield corporate bonds to all corporate bonds (PHB:$DJCB) ratio, the picture gets different, as the riskier end of the corporate bond spectrum isn‘t firing on all cylinders. That‘s part of the watchout story justification. Technology, Value and Growth Technology (XLK ETF) hadn‘t suffered a profound setback really yesterday. The volume wasn‘t there, and half of the intraday losses were recouped – the bears weren‘t serious, and as the caption says, be wary of tech bubble callers constantly warning about significant corrections with unclear timings. Both tech and S&P 500 are primed to go to much higher levels before things get really ridiculous. Also, remember that since September, the sector has been not at its strongest really. Here comes the rotation between value and growth – given the current status, tech has been underperforming. It‘s the other sectors that are now catching up since the start of Feb. All in all, the chart doesn‘t scream imbalance – the accompanying S&P 500 advance has been relatively orderly. Gold & Silver Today‘s precious metals section will be shorter than usually, because the many bullish factors discussed throughout the week, remain in place. Just check out the metals & miners ratios, or yet another timely call of the dollar top. Let‘s dive into the gold and silver price action that I tweeted about earlier today. My open long position remains profitable, and the very short-term question remains what‘s next. Regardless of the upper knots, I don‘t see the short-term uptrend as exhausted, and you all know pretty well my medium- and long-term bullish case (stronger for silver than for gold in 2021 really). Despite being quite hot in the short run, silver isn‘t willing to correct to any kind of reasonable target. I view the current indecision as part of an ongoing consolidation, and don‘t discount the bullish implications. The key takeaway however is, how much would have to happen to flip this (and gold‘s) chart bearish. I remain cautiously optimistic in the short run, and very optimistic as regards the medium- and long-term. Summary The stock market keeps holding gained ground, having defended yesterday‘s values largely. Given the signs of creeping deterioration, which is however not strong enough to break the bull‘s back, let alone jeopardize it, the short-term caution in the 3,900 vicinity is still warranted. The gold and silver bulls are consolidating gains, and the bullish case for precious metals remains strong. Crucially, it‘s not about the dollar here, but about the sectoral internals, decoupling from rising Treasury yields, and holding firm against corporate ones. The new upleg is knocking on the door, and patience will be richly rewarded. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals.

Tesla has supported the price of Bitcoin, but it can affect gold as well.The bull market in cryptocurrencies continues. As you can see in the chart below, the price of Bitcoin has recently increased to almost $47,000 (as of February 10). The parabolic rise seems to be disturbing, as such quick rallies often end abruptly.However, it’s worth noting that the price of Bitcoin has partially jumped because of the increased acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate form of currency by the established big companies. In particular, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, has recently published a series of tweets that significantly affected the price of Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and other cryptocurrencies.Furthermore, Tesla updated its investment policy to include alternative assets as possible investments. In the last 10-k filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2021, Tesla stated:In January 2021, we updated our investment policy to provide us with more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity.Importantly, these assets also include gold :As part of the policy, which was duly approved by the Audit Committee of our Board of Directors, we may invest a portion of such cash in certain alternative reserve assets including digital assets, gold bullion, gold exchange-traded funds, and other assets as specified in the future.This means that Tesla wants to diminish its position in the U.S. dollar and to diversify its cash holdings. In other words, the company lost some of its confidence in the greenback and started to look for alternatives. So, it seems that Musk and other investors are afraid of expansion in public debt , higher inflation , and the dollar’s debasement .And rightly so! The continued fiscal stimulus will expand the fiscal deficit even further, ballooning the federal debt. With the budget resolution passed last week, only a simple majority will be needed in the Senate to get Biden’s $1.9 trillion package approved, a majority that Democrats have.Remember also that the U.S. economy added only 49,000 jobs in January , while 227,000 jobs were lost in December (revised down by 87,000!). The poor non-farm payrolls will strengthen the odds of a larger fiscal stimulus and easier fiscal and monetary policies.Hence, combined with the ultra-dovish monetary policy and a Fed more tolerant to inflation, the upcoming fiscal support could ultimately be a headwind for the dollar. Initially, the prospect of fiscal support caused positive reactions on the financial markets, but as the euphoria passes, investors start to examine the long-term consequences of easy money and the large expansion of government spending. Importantly, the larger the debt, the deeper the debt trap , and the longer the zero interest rates policy will stay with us, as the Fed won’t try to upset the Treasury.Implications for GoldWhat does Tesla’s move imply for the precious metals market? Well, we are not observing the kind of rally in gold that we are currently witnessing in the cryptocurrencies sphere (see the chart below). And – given the size of the gold market – it’s unlikely that Musk & Co. could ignite a mania similar to the one seen in Dogecoin. The gold market is simply too big. Even the silver market could be too large for similar speculative plays – as the failure of the recent attempt of a short squeeze has shown.However, the update of Tesla’s investment policy is a confirmation of gold as a safe-haven asset and portfolio diversifier . If other big companies follow suit, and we see an actual reallocation of funds from the U.S. dollar towards gold, the price of the yellow metal will get an invigorating electric impulse .If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

The pandemic winter will take longer than we thought. The longer we struggle with the coronavirus, the brighter gold could shine.A long, long time ago, there was a bad virus, called the coronavirus , that killed many people all around the world and severely hit the global economy. Luckily, smart scientists developed vaccines that defeated the coronavirus and ended the pandemic . Since then, humankind lived happily – and healthy – ever after.Sounds beautiful, doesn’t it? This is the story we were all supposed to believe. The narrative was that the development of vaccines would end the pandemic and we would quickly return to normalcy. However, it turns out that this was all a fairy tale – the real struggle with the coronavirus is more challenging than we thought .First, the rollout of vaccinations has been very, very slow . As the chart below shows, on February 1, 2021, only about 1.77 percent of Americans became fully vaccinated against COVID-19.Of course, full protection requires two doses, so it takes some time. But in many countries, the share of the population which received at least one dose of the vaccine is also disappointingly low, as the chart below shows.It means that our progress towards herd immunity is really sluggish . At such a pace, we are losing the race between injections and infections. And we will not reach herd immunity until the second half of the year or even the next winter…Second, there is the problem of mutations . The new strains are rapidly popping up which poses a great risk in our fight with the coronavirus. One of these new variants was identified in the United Kingdom and quickly spread through the country. Although it’s not more lethal, it’s more infectious, which makes it more dangerous overall. And the more variants emerge, it’s more likely that we could see a mutation resistant to our current treatments and vaccines. Indeed, some of the mutations change the surface protein, spike, and have been shown to reduce the effectiveness of combating the coronavirus by monoclonal antibodies.The really bad part is that these two problems are strongly connected. The longer the vaccinations take, the more active cases we have. The more active cases we have, the more mutations happen, as each new infection implies more copies of the coronavirus, which gives it more chances to mutate. The more mutations occur, the higher the odds of a really nasty strain. Therefore, the longer the vaccination process takes, the more probable it is that it will not work and that vaccine-resistant variants might emerge.Given that in many countries vaccinations are practically the only rational strategy to fight the virus, the vaccine-resistant strain would be a serious blow. Surely, some vaccines could be relatively easily updated, but their rollout would still require time – time we don’t have.What does it all imply for the gold market? Well, the more sluggish the vaccinations, the higher the risk that something goes wrong and that our battle with COVID-19 will take more time. The longer the fight, the slower the economic recovery. The longer and bumpier road toward herd immunity, the slower lifting sanitary restrictions and social distancing measures, and the later we come back to normalcy. The longer we live in Zombieland, the easier fiscal and monetary policies will be, and the brighter gold will shine.Another issue is that we shouldn’t forget about the possibility of the pandemic’s long economic shadow. A recent paper has examined the effects of 19 major previous pandemics, finding a long shadow of the economic carnage. Although financial markets are still (wrongly, I believe) betting on a V-shaped recovery, the history suggests that a double dip is likely, as eight of the last 11 recessions experienced it. Recessions sound golden, don’t they?However, there is one caveat here. The sensitivity of economic activity to COVID-19 infections and restrictions has significantly diminished since the Great Lockdown in the spring of 2020. There are three reasons for that. First, people fear the coronavirus less. Second, epidemic restrictions are better targeted and implemented. Third, entrepreneurs adopted better to cope with the epidemic.The greater resilience of the economy means a smaller downturn and fewer long-term scars, which will limit any upward COVID-19 related impact on gold prices . But a softer economic impact also implies a quicker recovery, which – together with the upcoming big government stimulus – could increase consumer prices, thus supporting gold prices through the inflation channel. Indeed, commodity prices have been surging in 2021, so gold may follow suit.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

For once, we have a week in 2021 where the market really didn't move all that much.Except for weed stocks that whipsawed GameStock-like and Bitcoin and Dogecoin making waves thanks to Lord Elon, it's really been kind of a boring week for the major indices.The S&P and Nasdaq closed at another record high Thursday (Feb. 11), while the Dow barely retreated from its own record high. The red-hot Russell has lagged this week.However, it’s all relative. No index has moved upwards or downwards more than about 0.30% week-to-date.It’s about time we had a week of relative quiet in the market.The sentiment is indeed still rosy right now. The economic recovery appears to be gaining steam, and the Q1 GDP decline everyone predicted might not be as sharp as we anticipated. We could also be days away from trillions of dollars of much-needed stimulus getting pumped into the economy.Earnings continue to impress, too, and are on pace to rise by over 20% in 2021. Since 1980, only 12 years have earnings increased by 15% or more. Except for 2018, the market gained an average of 12% in all of those years.We could also days away from FDA approval of a one-dose vaccine from Johnson and Johnson (JNJ).The COVID numbers and vaccine trend could truly turn the tide of things. More people in the U.S. have now been vaccinated than total cases, and the week kicked off (Feb. 8) with vaccine doses outnumbering new cases 10-1. Dr. Fauci also claims that vaccines could be available to the general public by April.But we're not out of the woods yet. Sure this week has been calm.But it’s almost been “too calm.”I still worry about complacency, valuations, and the return of inflation.“You wouldn’t know it from the sedate action in the averages,” but Wall Street is on “a highway to the danger zone,” CNBC ’s Jim Cramer said.“In a frothy market, stocks will have enormous rallies that are totally disconnected from the underlying fundamentals.”He’s not wrong.Look at the Buffett Indicator as of February 4. Where I track this indicator usually updates once a week and shows the total U.S. stock market valuation to the GDP. If you take the US stock market cap of $48.7 trillion and the estimated GDP of $21.7 trillion, we're nearly 224% overvalued and 84% above the historical average. This ratio has not been at a level like this since the dotcom bubble.Worse? This chart was dated February 4. The market’s only risen since then.This is what I mean by don’t be fooled by the relative calm of this week.The S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E ratio is also well above its 10-year average of 15.8. The Russell 2000 is also back at a historic high above its 200-day moving average. Tech stock valuations are again approaching dotcom bust levels.Still not sold? Look at Goldman’s non-profitable tech index. It’s approaching an absurd 250% year-over-year performance.Bank of America also believes that a market correction could be on the horizon due to signs of overheating.While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. They are also way more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.Bank of America also echoed this statement and said that “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and ‘as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”The key word here- buyable.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. The Streaky S&P Is Back at a Record Figure 1- S&P 500 Large Cap Index $SPXThe S&P continues to trade as a streaky index. It seemingly rips off multiple-day winning streaks or losing streaks weekly.After the S&P 500 ripped off a streak of gains in 6 of 7 days, it promptly went on a 3-day losing streak, followed by another record close.I would hardly call that a 3-day losing streak, though. I’d even say it was a boring week for the S&P 500 with muted moves.The outlook is healthy, though, especially when you consider earnings. More than 80% of S&P stocks that have reported earnings thus far have beaten estimates.What could be on tap for next week? Who even knows anymore. But if earnings keep on outperforming, and the sentiment remains stable, it could be another strong week.The S&P’s RSI is ticking up towards overbought. However, because it’s still below 70, and because of the streaky manner in which the index has traded, it remains a HOLD.A short-term correction could inevitably occur by the end of Q1 2021, but for now, I am sticking with the S&P as a HOLD.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the S&P, the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as red-hot small-caps and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

We took for many months the stands of a Permabull in Silver and still do. Our primary call for acquiring physical Silver might find some hurdles. You might not get any. When we started in March of last year at the price of US$12 to urge for acquiring physical Silver holdings, we already experienced the vast percentage difference between the spot price and the actual acquisition price of Silver. This phenomenon persists to the present day. And what to do if one can’t purchase real Silver anymore?We look at the markets primarily from the perspective of risk. As long as you do not have too dramatic pullbacks (= a homogeneous equity curve), you can always recover from a temporary setback. After all, not every investment idea might work out.If Silver’s physical acquisition should come to a halt, we find mining stock ownership to be an excellent second choice.Here is why. Leveraged positions like ETFs, futures, and options allow special restrictions made by brokers and clearinghouses tied with their firms’ positions. Large players like this can also go belly up, especially in six sigma events. In that case, it is essential to find liquidity, the ability to transfer positions from one broker/clearinghouse to another, and mostly to liquidate positions. An option they may deny you through their regulative powers.Sil, Global Silver Miners ETF, Weekly Chart, ETFs might look good, but they aren’t:SIL Global X FDS Global X Silver Miners ETF in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 4th, 2021.  Monthly Chart of Silver, Think long term and win:Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of February 4th, 2021.While Silver’s smaller time frames can be intimidating at times due to their volatility and recent limelight in the news, the larger monthly time frame clearly shows the health of the trend in motion and the long term opportunity.With this bigger picture in place, mining stocks will follow the uptrend.Daily Chart, Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, The profit maze of Silver:Reyna Silver Corp in Canadian Dollar, daily chart as of February 4th, 2021.There is a vast array of choices to participate in mining stocks. You can employ various strategies like buying the market leaders or underdogs, for example. In this field, evaluation can change quickly based on depository discoveries, soil sample quality and many other factors. Another point of consideration is the accessibility of stock depending on the country you are trading from, which exchanges you can access.The above chart depicts the stock price of our sponsor Reyna Silver which we find undervalued and very attractive as a long-term investment. Stocks in this price range have the advantage that not too much of your money is parked long term. And still percentage returns can be substantial. (Disclaimer: Please note that Reyna Silver is the sponsor of our weekly silver chartbook).In this specific case, you can see that there is excellent support at CA$0.98 from a volume analysis perspective, right below where prices trade for a low-risk entry on a long-term time horizon.The profit maze of Silver:While we hold physical Silver in the highest regard to risk-averse wealth preservation (next to Gold and Bitcoin), additional investments in mining stocks are prudent. As a stockholder, you are a part-owner of a company with the acquired rights by law. From all the choices out there to participate in the Silver boom, mining stocks seem to be the ones with the smallest risk potential.With a goal of long term investing and wealth preservation, it is essential to look at investments from a risk perspective rather than leverage.Besides, many mining stocks pay dividends. That additional income flow can be reinvested, and one participates in the 8th miracle of the world: “Compound interest.” Automatisch generierte Beschreibung">Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

The recent rally in Marijuana and Alternative Pharma/Agriculture stocks has been impressive, to say the least.  One thing we have to remember about this sector is that it rallied to highs in 2018 and 2019, then fell out of favor for many months.  The anticipation of this new sector emerging within the US, and across many areas of the globe, prompted quite a bit of excitement after 2016 when many US states voted to legalize Marijuana. Even before this date, the alternative medicine and consumer product use related to Marijuana has been heavily speculated on by investors/traders.If we were to consider the out-of-favor phase of this sector over the past 15+ months, after the rally/hype phase which took place in 2017 and early 2018, we've seen many cannabis stocks collapse 70% to 85% or more recently.  This downward price trend likely set up a number of incredible opportunities based on expanded marketplace opportunities, enterprise valuations, and longer-term consumer/pharmaceutical use applications for CBD and other chemical extracts.  Additionally, we need to also consider what would happen if a consolidation phase were to take place in this industry – how would cannabis leaders play a role in acquiring smaller, yet important, firms with innovative technology/solutions.The MJ Alternative Harvest ETF Weekly chart below highlights the incredible decline in the cannabis sector after the August 2018 peak. MJ fell from a high of $45.40 to a low of $9.34 – representing a -86% decline.  Aurora Cannabis (ACB) peaked at 150.34 in October 2018 and recently bottomed near $3.71 – representing a massive -97.5% decline.Over the past two months or longer, this sector has started to heat up again with a moderately strong rally setting up.  Over the past 14+ days, a big upside rally initiated pushing price levels upward by +80% to +150% or more from recent lows.  Historically, when one considers the longer-term potential for growth, revenues and consolidation within this industry sector, we believe this rally may be just starting.If we were to consider a potential continued focus on the Cannabis/Alternative Agriculture supply and industry sector over the next 4+ years, we would have to take a look at the deep decline in price levels recently and the opportunity for some type of industry consolidation over the next 5 to 10+ years.  Obviously, this industry/sector is here to stay, and, much like the Alcoholic Beverage industry in the 1960s to early 2000s, we are in a very early stage of the legalization, expansion, and consolidation phase of this sector.Using these two sectors for comparison, the first question is just how big is the Cannabis/Alt marketplace compared to similar types of markets?  The Cannabis sector currently makes up about 1/10th of the total US Alcoholic beverage annual sales ($25.3B Cannabis: $252.82B Alcohol - https://www.statista.com/topics/1709/alcoholic-beverages/).  From a conservative standpoint, Cannabis consumers very likely cross-over into the Alcoholic beverage consumer market on a fairly high basis.  This means the consumer market for Cannabis is very likely 60% to 75%, or more, of the Alcoholic-beverage market.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!The second question should be what additional advantages does the Cannabis/Alt sector have that differentiate it from the Alcoholic-beverage industry?  That answer lies in an unknown factor – the pharmaceutical/consumer product use that is currently in its infancy.  CBD has already shown great promise, but the long-term capabilities, use, and application of various alternative chemical compounds found in various strains of plants, mushrooms, and other organic sources are still part of the “X-Factor”.The third question in our minds becomes, how long before these unknowns/X-Factor components become a reality?  We can't attempt to put the answer into dates or predictions, but we do believe the speed at which these organic compounds will be introduced and mapped-out into potential medical-use solutions has been clearly illustrated by the speed at which the COVID-19 vaccines/medical advancements have been delivered.  These solutions only took “months” to come to market.  If the same type of capabilities were applied to the Cannabis/Alternative marketplace, and thus toward the multiple supply/innovation companies within this sector, a massive boost of growth, innovation, and consolidation within this sector over time. Let's take a look at some current statistics & data below.Marijuana Tax Revenues by state appear to be strong and growing.  One thing to consider about this Tax data is that a relatively large portion of actual sales are still going unreported (as illicit transactions).Source: https://loudcloudhealth.com/resources/marijuana-tax-revenue-by-state-map/Legalization & Acceptance of Marijuana within the US has now reached almost every state – with only six states still showing Marijuana is fully illegal.  All other states have adopted Marijuana use in some form over the past 5+ years.Source: https://disa.com/map-of-marijuana-legality-by-stateThe US Cannabis Consumer Market is expected to increase by more than 15 to 20% in 2021 after more than doubling in 2020.  From 2018 to 2021, the total consumer market was expected to increase by more than 350%.  By the end of 2022, that ratio increases to levels beyond +450% compared to the 2018 levels.Source: https://mattermark.com/vc-investment-sparks-high-times-american-cannabis-industry/Obviously, the deep price decline in the Marijuana sector, which recently ended, did not properly reflect the market capabilities and expectations for future growth and earnings.  We believe this sector could become one of the hottest sectors for growth over the next 2+ years and it may prompt a massive consolidation phase within this industry which will create potential behemoth conglomerate Cannabis firms – very much like the Alcoholic Beverage industry.I am able to find these trends, like MJ, by using my Best Asset Now strategy. My subscribers and I are loving the strategy as we closed our MJ trade last week after taking profits at the 7,%, 15%, 20%, and 48% levels in two weeks! This is how we make consistent profits from the BAN strategy while still getting that awesome, excitable feeling from being in an explosive trade!!Don’t miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months, which will be an incredible year for traders of the BAN strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Learn how the BAN strategy can help you spot the best trade setups because staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.In the second part of this article, we'll explore various Marijuana sector charts showing where traders may find real opportunities for profits if the current rally phase continues.  This exciting industry sector may become one of the hottest sectors for traders and may prompt a massive consolidation phase within this industry over the next 5+ years.  Get ready for some big trends and opportunities.

BeInCrypto breaks down some of the biggest altcoin movers and shakers from the previous week. Will their momentum continue? During the week of Feb 8 -15, these five altcoin picks rallied the most: Bitcoin Gold (BTG) – 125% Ravencoin (RVN) – 125% DASH (DASH) – 124% Graph Token (GRT) – 113% Lisk (LSK) – 109% Biggest Altcoin Gainers BTG has increased considerably over the past two weeks but has yet to move above an important resistance area at $32. RVN reached an all-time high price of $0.09 on Feb. 14 and is currently in the process of validating the previous all-time high resistance area as support. DASH has already moved above the long-term $236 resistance area and should continue increasing at an accelerated rate. Despite reaching an all-time high of $2.81 on Feb. 11, the lack of price history for GRT makes analysis of the token difficult. LSK reached an all-time high price of $4.93 on Feb. 14 but has fallen slightly since, retesting the all-time high resistance area, above which it previously broke out from. BTG The BTG chart shows a massive upward move that has been going on since a breakout from it validated a long-term descending resistance line as support (green arrow). Since then, the BTG increase has turned parabolic, reaching a high of $33 so far. All three of the: RSI, MACD, and Stochastic Oscillator are still increasing, suggesting that the trend is bullish. However, until BTG breaks out from the $32 area and validates it as support, the upward move is not yet confirmed. BTG has not reached a close above this level since Jul. 2018. If it does so successfully, the rate of increase should significantly accelerate. BTG Chart By TradingViewRVN RVN increased considerably last week, reaching an all-time high price of $0.09 in the process. While RVN has fallen slightly since, it’s in the process of validating the previous all-time high resistance area at $0.075 as support. Technical indicators are bullish since all three of the: MACD, RSI, and Stochastic Oscillator are increasing. Once RVN manages to clear this area and validate it as support, the rate of increase is likely to accelerate. RVN Chart By TradingViewDASH Last week’s rally took DASH above the $236 resistance area, the 0.382 Fib retracement level of the most recent downward move. Previously, DASH had traded below this level since Apr. 2018. Currently, DASH is in the process of moving above this area, something which could trigger an accelerated rally towards the next resistance area at $571. Technical indicators are bullish and support the continuation of the upward movement. DASH Chart By TradingViewGRT The GRT chart shows a significant upward movement that has been going on for the past week. This led to an all-time high price of $2.81 on Feb. 12. GRT fell shortly afterward but has regained the majority of its losses since then. Before Dec. 17, 2020, the lack of price history makes it difficult to construct a proper analysis of the token. GRT Chart By TradingViewLSK LSK has increased immensely over the past three days, reaching an all-time high price of $4.70 on Feb. 14. While it has dropped significantly since then, the decline served to validate the $2.90 area as support, leaving a long lower wick behind. Technical indicators are bullish, and since there is no resistance above the current price, the rate of increase may significantly accelerate from here on out. LSK Chart By TradingViewFor BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here. The post Five Biggest Altcoin Gainers From Feb. 8 – Feb. 15 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

It is easier said than done since we like seeing the confirmation. We enjoy seeing prices go up and then would be willing to commit to buying. Unfortunately, it is too late to participate at that point since the risk is increasing the more prices advance. The result is that many novices trade breakout trades. This is one of the most apparent form of market participation. Since the whole world can identify such a trade, it is a low probability technique.A real edge is created by conditioning oneself to ask the right questions at the right time. When prices retrace within a general uptrend having a clear rule set of participation is very useful. When prices go up, using a supporting exit strategy like our quad exit to take partial exits and generally asking oneself where to get out is the right behavior.The following three charts describe the essential scenarios we see for Bitcoin to progress further.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Minor dip with high risk:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 15th, 2021.As much as a minor retracement would point for the most aggressive trend direction from a risk perspective regarding mid and long-term market participation, we see no low-risk entries to take part in. In this case, we prefer the price to penetrate 50k successfully and would like to enter on a bounce of this significant number. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Consolidation zone below US$50,000:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 15th, 2021.The next way prices could unfold is consolidation below the larger 50k marker. We find entries on the low end of the trend rage attractive as participation by taking partial profits on the range box’s upper rim and possible continuation of the remaining position size to all time new highs.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin-be a contrarian:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of February 15th, 2021.The real contrarian opportunity would lay in a larger retracement to fade for the well-prepared trader. Bitcoins’ nature has been to show substantial retracements. A move like this would evoke emotions of doubt. Contrarian to these emotions, the larger the decline, the more aggressive an entry in position size should be.All three scenarios require a well-prepped plan. Instead of following the market’s evolution with emotional observation, focus on the prepared battle plan and engage only if your preconceived ideas are matched by price behavior.Bitcoin, be a contrarianIf you follow prey to your intuitive, emotional response, you will find yourself in the urge of wanting to get into the market once prices show a clear direction. This is also precisely at that spot where “fear of missing out” comes into play, another emotional trigger. Conscious efforts have to be made to overwrite these non-quality questions from a market participation perspective. Write notes into your charts and rehearse quality-question-timing for market participation until they become second nature. A low-risk entry methodology starts with these quality questions, and doing so within a trade, is one of the best performing trading methods out there. Be a contrarian to market direction and be a contrarian to your emotions.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|February 15th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Yesterday‘s thin volume session didn‘t bring any material changes as the window of opportunity for the stock bears to act, is slowly but surely closing down. Friday‘s intraday move brought increasingly higher prices, and Monday‘s trading extended gains even more. Euphoric, complacent greed as evidenced by the sentiment readings and put/call ratios, is on.I asked on Friday:(…) How long can it last, and what shape the upcoming correction would have? Right now, the warning signs are mounting, yet the bears shouldn‘t put all their eggs into the correction basket really, for it shapes to be a shallow one – one in time, rather than in price.Both on Monday and today, I‘ll say that waiting for a correction is like waiting for Godot. Right from the horse‘s mouth as my personal experience with quite some absurd and Kafkaesque drama got richer recently.The dollar keeps topping out, which I called it to do a week ago – and its losses have been mounting since. Long-dated Treasury yields are rising in tandem, which is a great environment for financials (XLF ETF) and emerging markets (EEM ETF). The former benefit from the widening yield curve, the latter from plain devaluation.Gold performance is still short-term disappointing, and silver and platinum are leading. But it‘s the miners and the moves between various mining indices, that work to soothe the bulls‘ impatience. Understandable as we are in 5+ months of downside correction whose target I called on Aug 07 in the article S&P 500 Bulls Meet Non-Farm Payrolls, witnessing record pace of new money creation.The ongoing economic recovery will get new stimulus support, and that will work to broaden the precious metals advance. Commodity prices are universally rising, and over time, inflation as measured by CPI, will do so too. But not until the current pace of job creation picks up and participation rate turns – we‘re far from that moment. Until then, inflation will be apparent only in (financial) asset prices, which is in line with new money no longer sitting on banks‘ balance sheets, but flowing into the real economy. Again quoting my Friday‘s words:(…) One more note concerning the markets – in our print-and-spend-happy world, where the give or take $1.9T stimulus will sooner or later come in one way or another, we better prepare on repricing downside risk in the precious metals, and also better not to fixate on the premature bubble pop talk too closely. I have been stating repeatedly that things have to get really ridiculous first, and this just doesn‘t qualify yet in my view. All those serious correction calls have to wait – in tech and elsewhere, for we‘re going higher overall – like it or not.Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsThe bulls had an opportunity to act for quite a few days in a row, yet missed it. Their inaction confirms that the path of least resistance for stocks is to still rise.The market breadth indicators have improved on Friday, but especially the new highs new lows has a way to go. It could have ticked upwards more given Friday‘s price advance, but didn‘t. The put/call ratio has moved upwards (see chart below), but the overall message is still one of cautious yet reasonable optimism – not enough to trigger the sizable correction quite some participants are constantly awaiting.Credit Markets, Treasuries and DollarThe high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio performance isn‘t out of whack with the S&P 500, but the investment grade corporate bonds to longer dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) are not confirming exactly. Before the corona crash, the high yield ones were leading the investment grade ones for countless quarters. From the Mar 2020 bottom, the investment grade ones were in the pool position. And since the end of Dec 2020, the high yield ones are leading again, but investment grade ones aren't going up anymore, but down the way long-term Treasuries do. One more sign of the euphoric stage in stocks we're in.Long-term Treasuries are the chart to watch for the market to throw a fit – or not. They‘re declining at a faster pace than has been the case in late 2020, which can bring about trouble - not immediately right away, but over time it can turn out so. The dynamic of money moving into the stock market is thus far still positive as the many risk on assets are gaining on the fast pace of new money creation. The worry about a sudden, sharp reversal is misplaced for now.The dollar is on the receiving end – there is no breakout verification before a run higher in progress – no. Neither above the 50-day moving average, nor any way you draw a declining resistance line on higher time frames. The greenback is about to test and break below its 2021 lows. Solidly below.Gold and SilverGold bulls stood their ground on Friday, yet their yesterday‘s and today‘s performance is rather weak. Not disastrously so, but still indicative of the headwinds gold bulls face. Gold‘s spark isn‘t there at the moment. Putting it into context, please remember that it was first gold that jumped in the unrivalled money printing era arrival in spring 2020, followed by copper, base metals, agricultural commodities, and also oil now (remember my recent bullish calls for over $80 per barrel in less than 2 years). Silver price action is the bullish one, in line with commodities ($CRB) performance being much stronger now. Silver is definitely better positioned to benefit from the upcoming precious metals rise – today and in the days and weeks ahead. Gold and Silver MinersThe heat gold is taking from rising Treasury yields, is also progressively weaker. The decoupling from rising nominal (real) yields bodes well for precious metals universally, and it‘s precisely what you would expect given the (commodity) inflation, twin deficits, and the dollar on the brink.Gold to all corporate bonds chart reflects the current dillydallying nicely. Gold isn‘t breaking down into a bearish downtrend. The miners examination also proves no change in the underlying bullish dynamic playing out below the surface. Junior gold miners are oputperforming. the seniors, and there is also the great burst of life in the silver miners – these are outperforming ever more visibly the rest of the crowd.Once this chart flips bullish, we have the new upleg clearly visible. Thus far, we have had one recent bullish divergence only (the GDX refusal to break to new lows when gold broke below its Jan lows) – once gold miners start leading the yellow metal, the sentiment in the precious metals community would get different compared to today really.SummaryThe deterioration in stocks got postponed as both Friday and Monday brought new buyers into the market. Would the bears appear, at least to rock the boat a little? I stand by my call that they had a good chance all the prior week, but didn‘t jump at the opportunity – their window is closing, slowly but surely. The stock bull run is on, and there are no signals thus far pointing to an onset of a deeper correction soon.The gold bulls continue lagging behind their silver counterparts, predictably, with both under pressure in Tuesday‘s premarket. Coupled with the miners‘ signals, and unprecendented monetary and fiscal stimulus, unfolding real economy recovery, inflation making its way through the system, and the dollar struggling to keep its head above water, the new PMs upleg is a question of time.

Gold is dodging bullets, as it comes increasingly under fire from rising U.S. interest rates and a USD that is poised to surge.Catching unsuspecting traders in yet another bull trap , gold’s early-week strength quickly faded. And with investors unwilling to vouch for the yellow metal for more than a few days, the rush-to-exit mentality highlights a short-term vexation that’s unlikely to subside.Please see below:Figure 1Destined for devaluation after hitting its triangle-vertex-based reversal point (which I warned about previously ), the yellow metal is struggling to climb the ever-growing wall of worry.Mirroring what we saw at the beginning of the New Year, gold’s triangle-vertex-based reversal point remains a reliable indicator of trend exhaustion.And when you add the bearish cocktail of rising U.S. interest rates and a potential USD Index surge, $1,700 remains the initial downside target , with $1,500 to even ~$1,350 still possibilities under the right curcumstances.Please see below:Figure 2 - Gold Continuous Contract Overview and Slow Stochastic Oscillator Chart ComparisonTo explain the rationale, I wrote previously:Back in November, gold’s second decline (second half of the month) was a bit bigger than the initial (first half of the month) slide that was much sharper. The January performance is very similar so far, with the difference being that this month, the initial decline that we saw in the early part of the month was bigger.This means that if the shape of the price moves continues to be similar, the next short-term move lower could be bigger than what we saw so far in January and bigger than the decline that we saw in the second half of November. This is yet another factor that points to the proximity of $1,700 as the next downside target.In addition, as a steepening U.S. yield curve enters the equation, I wrote on Jan. 27 that the bottom, and subsequent move higher, in U.S. Treasury yields coincided with a USDX rally 80% of the time since 2003.Figure 3 - Source: Daniel LacalleAnd while the USDX continues to fight historical precedent, on Feb. 12, the U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield closed at its highest level in nearly a year. As such, the move should add wind to the USDX’s sails in the coming weeks.Please see below:Figure 4In conclusion, gold is under fire from all angles and dodging bullets has become a near impossible task. With the USD Index likely to bounce off its declining resistance line (now support), a bottom in the greenback could be imminent. Also ominous, a steepening U.S. yield curve signals that the yellow metals’ best days are likely in the rearview. However, as the situation evolves and gold eventually demonstrates continued strength versus the USD Index, its long-term uptrend will resume once again.Before moving on, I want to reiterate my previous comments and explain why $1,700 remains my initial target:One of the reasons is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the recent 2020 rally, and the other is the 1.618 extension of the initial decline. However, there are also more long-term-oriented indications that gold is about to move to $1,700 or lower.(…) gold recently failed to move above its previous long-term (2011) high. Since history tends to repeat itself, it’s only natural to expect gold to behave as it did during its previous attempt to break above its major long-term high.And the only similar case is from late 1978 when gold rallied above the previous 1974 high. Let’s take a look at the chart below for details (courtesy of chartsrus.com)Figure 5 - Gold rallying in 1978, past its 1974 highAs you can see above, in late 1978, gold declined severely right after it moved above the late-1974 high. This time, gold invalidated the breakout, which makes the subsequent decline more likely. And how far did gold decline back in 1978? It declined by about $50, which is about 20% of the starting price. If gold was to drop 20% from its 2020 high, it would slide from $2,089 to about $1,671 .Figure 6 - Relative Strength Index (RSI), GOLD, and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ComparisonIf you analyze the red arrow in the lower part of the above chart (the weekly MACD sell signal), today’s pattern is similar not only to what we saw in 2011, but also to what we witnessed in 2008. Thus, if similar events unfold – with the S&P 500 falling and the USD Index rising (both seem likely for the following months, even if these moves don’t start right away) – the yellow metal could plunge to below $1,350 or so. The green dashed line shows what would happen gold price, if it was not decline as much as it did in 2008.However, as of right now, my initial target is $1,700, with $1,500 likely over the medium-term. But as mentioned, if the S&P 500 and the USD Index add ripples to the bearish current, $1,400 (or even ~$1,350) could occur amid the perfect storm. ~$1,500 still remains the most likely downside target for the final bottom, though.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The market largely continued last week’s mixed moves, with the S&P and Nasdaq mildly retreating from record highs and the Dow eking out another record close.The sentiment remains mostly rosy thanks to earnings that continue to impress, plummeting virus numbers worldwide, indicators that the economic recovery is gaining steam, and imminent stimulus.But we’re not out of the woods yet, and I still worry about complacency and valuations.But now, you can add one more concern to the list- rising bond yields.On Tuesday (Feb. 16), the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 9 basis points to top 1.30% for the first time since February 2020. The 30-year rate also hit its highest level in a year.Why is this concerning?Rising interest rates=less attractive stocks.Sure, the banks benefit. But what do you think this means for growth sectors such as tech that have benefited from low-rates?You couple that with the fact that according to the Buffet Indicator (Total US stock market valuation/GDP), the market could be 228% overvalued, and tech stocks may be at valuations not seen since the dotcom bubble? Genuine concerns.A rebound in rates could also put a dent in the economic recovery if both companies and consumers find it increasingly expensive to borrow.While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.Bank of America also echoed this statement and said last week that “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and ‘as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. They are also way more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. The Streaky S&P Is Back at a Record Figure 1- S&P 500 Large Cap Index $SPXThe S&P continues to trade as a streaky index. It seemingly rips off multiple-day winning streaks or losing streaks weekly.Before Tuesday’s (Feb. 16) “decline” (if you can call it that), here’s how the S&P has traded in February. It kicked off the month by ripping off a streak of gains in 6 of 7 days. It then promptly went on a 3-day losing streak, followed by a two-day winning streak and more record closes.Then it declined a 0.06% to kick off the President’s Day shortened trading week.More than 80% of S&P stocks that have reported earnings have beaten estimates, which is quite impressive. Yes, the forward P/E ratio is historically high. However, this P/E ratio has coincided with growing earnings.With the index also up 5.9% month-to-date and a healthy outlook for the second half of the year, we could have some more room to run.While the S&P’s RSI is still hovering around overbought levels, it’s remained stable at a HOLD level, mainly reflecting its muted moves over the last week and change.A short-term correction could inevitably occur by the end of Q1 2021, but for now, I am sticking with the S&P as a HOLD.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the S&P, the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as red-hot small-caps and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Yesterday‘s bearish price action in stocks was the kind of shallow, largely sideways correction I was looking for. Not too enthusiastic follow through – just rocking the boat while the S&P 500 bull run goes on. Stocks are likely to run quite higher before meeting a serious correction. As I argued in yesterday‘s detailed analysis of the Fed policies, their current stance won‘t bring stocks down. But it‘s taking down long-term Treasuries, exerting pressure on the dollar (top in the making called previous Monday), and fuelling commodities – albeit at very differnt pace. The divergencies I have described yesterday, center on weak gold performance – not gaining traction through the monetary inflation, instead trading way closer in sympathy with Treasury prices. Gold has frontrunned the other commodities through the corona deflationary shock, and appears waiting for more signs of inflation. It didn‘t make a final top in Aug 2020, and a new bear market didn‘t start. It‘s my opinion that thanks to the jittery Treasury markets, we‘re seeing these dislocations, and that once the Fed focuses on the long end of the curve in earnest, that would remove the albatross from gold‘s back.I can‘t understate how important the rising yields are to the economy (and to the largest borrower, the government). Since 1981, we‘ve been in one long bond bull market, and are now approaching the stage of it getting questioned before too long. The rates are rising without the real economy growing really strongly, far from its potential output, and characterized by a weak labor market. Not exactly signs of overheating, but we‘ll get there later this year still probably.It‘s like with generating inflation – the Fed policies for all their intent, can‘t command it into happening. The Treasury market is throwing a fit, knowing how much spending (debt monetization) is coming its way, and the Fed‘s focus is surely shifting to yields at the long end. Bringing it under control would work to dampen the rampant speculation in stocks, and also lift gold while not hurting commodities or real economy recovery much. Sounds like a reasonable move (yield curve control), and I believe they‘re considering it as strongly as I am talking about it.Let‘s quote yesterday‘s special report on gold, inflation, and commodities:(…) the wave of new money creation (we‘re almost at double the early 2020 Fed‘s balance sheet value - $4T give or take then vs. almost $7.5T now – and that‘s before the multiplier in commercial banks loan creation kicks in) keeps hitting the markets, going into the real economy, predictably lifting many boats. It‘s my view that we have to (and will) experience a stock market bubble accompanied by the precious metals and commodities one – to a degree, simultaneously, for the stock market is likely to get under pressure first. Again, I am talking the big picture here – not the coming weeks.Let‘s examine the bear market is gold – some say that the late 2015 marked bottom, I‘m of the view that the 2016 steep rally was a first proof of turning tide. But the Fed got serious about tightening (raising rates, shrinking its balance sheet), and gold reached the final bottom in Aug 2018. Seeing through the hawks vs. dove fights at the Fed in the latter half of 2018 (December was a notable moment when Powell refused to the markets‘ bidding, remained hawkish in the face of heavy, indiscriminate selling across the board – before relenting).Since then, gold was slowly but surely gathering steam, and speculation in stocks was on. The repo crisis of autumn 2019 didn‘t have a dampening effect either – the Fed was solidly back to accomodative back then. These have all happened well before corona hit – and it wasn‘t able to push gold down really much. The recovery from the forced selling, this deflationary episode (which I had notably declared back in summer 2020 to be a one-off, not to be repeated event), was swift. Commodities have clearly joined, and the picture of various asset classes taking the baton as inflation is cascading through the system, is very clear.Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsFinally, a daily downswing – not meaningful, but it‘s as good as it gets. The slightly lower volume though shows that there is not a raging conviction yet that this sideways move is over.The market breadth indicators aren‘t at their strongest. Both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume dipped negative, which isn‘t worrying unless you look at new highs new lows as well. While still positive, $NYHL is showing a divergence by moving below the mid-Feb lows. Seeing its decline to carve a rounded bottom a la end Jan would be a welcome sight to the stock bulls. Before then, nothing stands in the way of muddling through in a shallow, corrective fashion.Credit Markets and TreasuriesThe divergence in both leading credit market ratios – high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) and investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated Treasuries (LQD:IEI) – show the bond market strains. HYG:SHY clearly supports the S&P 500 rally, while LQD:IEI isn‘t declining in tandem with long-term Treasuries. Instead, it‘s carving out a bullish divergence as it‘s trading well above the Sep and Oct lows – unlike the TLT.Speaking of which, such were my words yesterday, calling for a Treasury reprieve to happen soon:(…) Long-term Treasuries (TLT ETF) are the key chart on my radar screen right now. The rise in yields is accelerating, and if progressing unmitigated, would throw a spanner into many an asset‘s works. Even though it‘s not apparent right now, there is a chance that we‘ll see a slowdown, even a temporary stabilization, over the coming sessions. The larger trend in rates is higher though, and in the dollar to the downside.The dollar is still topping out, and a new daily upswing doesn‘t change that – I look for it to be reversed, and for the new downleg reasserting itself.Gold, Silver and CommoditiesThe encouraging, budding short-term resilience of gold to rising Treasury yields, got a harsh reality check yesterday. While the latter ticked higher, gold declined regardless. Closing at the late Nov lows, it‘s still relatively higher given the steep rise in long-term Treasury yields since. A bullish divergence, but a more clear sign of (directional) decoupling (negating this week‘s poor performance) is needed.Let‘s look again at gold, silver, and commodities in the medium run. Silver decoupled from gold since the late Nov bottom in both, while commodities haven‘t really looked back since early Nov. Till the end of 2020, gold wasn‘t as markedly weak as it has become since, and actually tracked the silver recovery from the late Nov bottom. And the reason it stopped, are the long-term Treasury yields, which quickened their rise in 2021. It looks like an orderly decline in TLT is what gold would appreciate – not a rush to the Treasury exit door.SummaryThe bearish push in stocks has a good chance of finally materializing also today. How strong will its internals be, will it entice the bulls to step in again? Signs are for this correction to run a bit longer in time – but the stock bull run is firmly on, and there are no signals thus far pointing to an onset of a deeper correction right away.The gold bulls recovered a little of the lost ground, but that doesn‘t flip the short-term picture their way in the least. While the yellow metal is leading silver today, its overall performance in the short run remains disappointing, and the silver-gold spread trade I introduced you to a week ago, a much stronger proposition. Still, given the miners‘ signals, unprecendented monetary and fiscal stimulus, unfolding real economy recovery, inflation making its way through the system, and the dollar struggling to keep its head above water, the new PMs upleg is a question of time.

With the yellow metal just posting its lowest close since June and a bearish pattern forming, how vulnerable is gold to a further decline?Gold and mining stocks just broke to new yearly lows – as I warned you in my previous analyses. And that’s only the beginning.Let’s jump right into the charts, starting with gold.Figure 1 - COMEX Gold FuturesIn early February, gold broke below the rising red support line and it then verified it by rallying back to it and then declining once again. It topped almost exactly right at its triangle-vertex-based reversal, which was yet another time when this technique proved to be very useful.Gold has just closed not only at new yearly lows, but also below the late-November lows (in terms of the closing prices, there was no breakdown in intraday terms). This means that yesterday’s (Feb. 17) closing price was the lowest daily close since late June 2020. At the moment of writing these words, gold is also trading below the April 2020 intraday high.Gold was likely to slide based on myriads of technical and cyclical factors, while the fundamental factors remain very positive – especially considering that we are about to enter the Kondratiev winter, or we are already there. As a reminder, Kondratiev cycles are one of the longest cycles and the stages of the cycle take names after seasons. “Winter” tends to start with a stock market top that is caused by excessive credit. In this stage gold is likely to perform exceptionally well… But not right at its start. Even the aftermath of the 1929 top (“Winter” started then as well), gold stocks declined for about 3 months before soaring. In the first part of the cycle, cash is likely to be king. And it seems that the performance of the USD Index is already telling investors to buckle up.And speaking of stocks, what about mining stocks? As you might already well know, just as with gold, the miners moved below the November lows in terms of both the intraday prices and daily closing prices. What does that mean? If you’d like to explore mining stocks in detail and are curious to know more about their prices and possible exit levels, then our full version of the analyses contains exactly what you need to know.Getting back to gold…Figure 2If the fact that gold invalidated its breakout above its 2011 high, despite the ridiculously positive fundamental situation, doesn’t convince you that gold does not really “want” to move higher before declining profoundly first, then the above chart might.As I wrote above, gold is currently more or less when it was trading at the April 2020 top. Where was the USD Index trading back then? It was moving back and forth around the 100 level.100!The USD Index closed a little below 91, and gold is at the same price level! That’s a massive 9 index-point decline in the USDX that gold shrugged off just like that.There’s no way that gold could “ignore” this kind of movement and be “strong” at the same time. No. It’s been very weak in the previous months, which is a strong sign (not a fundamental one, but a critical one nonetheless) that gold is going to move much lower once the USD Index finally rallies back up.Right now, waiting for gold to rally is like waiting for the light to turn green, arguing that eventually it has to turn green, while not realizing that the light is broken (gold just didn’t rally despite the huge decline in the USDX). Yes, someone will fix it and eventually it will turn green, but it doesn’t mean that it makes much sense to wait for that to happen, instead of looking around and crossing the street if it’s safe to do so.Yes, gold is likely to rally to new highs in the coming years. And silver is likely to skyrocket. But in light of just two of the above-mentioned factors (gold’s extreme underperformance relative to the USD Index and the invalidation of a critical breakdown) doesn’t it make sense not to purchase gold right now (except for the insurance capital that is) in order to buy it after several weeks / few months when it’s likely to be trading at much lower levels?We live in very specific times. Getting a “like” on a post or picture becomes a necessary daily activity and means of self-validation. Not “liking” something that others posted or that is massively “liked” may be frowned upon or even viewed as being disrespectful. Plus, it seems that no matter what you do, everyone gets offended very easily. When did honesty, independence and common-sense stop being virtues?When it comes to gold investment analysis, it’s surprisingly similar. You either like gold and think that it’s going higher right away or you’re “one of them”. “Them” can be anyone who tries to manipulate gold or silver prices, “banksters”, or some kind of unknown enemy. “ Analysts' ” goal is often no longer to be as objective as possible and to provide as good and as unbiased an analysis as possible, but to simply be cheering for gold and provide as many bullish signals as possible regardless of what one really thinks about them. The above may seem pleasant to readers, but it’s not really in their best interest. In order to make the most of any upswing, it’s best to enter the market as low as possible and to exit relatively close to the top. What happens before a price is as low as possible? It declines. Why would something like that (along with those describing it) be hated by gold investors? It makes no sense, but yet, it’s often the case.Top of FormBottom of FormThe discussion – above and below – can be viewed as something positive or negative for any investor, but while reading it, please keep in mind that our goal is the same as yours – we want to help investors make the most of their precious metals investments. Call us old-fashioned, but regardless of how unpleasant it may seem, we’ll continue to adhere to honesty, independence and common-sense in all our analysesOk, but why on Earth would the USD Index rally back up? The Fed is printing so much dollars – why would they be worth more?!Because the currencies are valued with relation to each other and whether or not the USD Index moves higher or lower doesn’t depend only on what the Fed is doing.Figure 3What other monetary authorities do matters as well and right now the ECB is outprinting the Fed (that’s what the decline in the green line above means), which means that the euro is likely to fall more than the U.S. dollar. Therefore, the EUR/USD currency exchange rate would be likely to decline and since this exchange rate is the biggest (over 50%) component of the USD Index, it makes perfect sense – from the fundamental point of view – to expect the USD Index to move higher.Can gold rally despite higher USD Index values? Absolutely. However, it would first have to start to behave “normally” relative to the USD Index, and before that happens it would have to stop being extremely weak relative to it. And the fact that gold is at the same price level despite a 9-index-point decline in the USDX is extreme weakness.To make the technical discussion easier, I’m attaching the previous chart once again.Figure 4On Monday (Feb. 15), I wrote the following about the above chart:The size and shape of the 2017-2018 analogue continues to mirror the current price action . However, today, it’s taken 118 less days for the USD Index to move from peak to trough.Also, it took 82 days for the USDX to bottom in 2017-2018 (the number of days between the initial bottom and the final bottom) and the number amounts to 21.19% of the overall duration. If we apply a similar timeframe to today’s move, it implies that a final bottom may have formed on Feb. 12. As a result, the USDX’s long-term upswing could begin as soon as this week.Also noteworthy, as the USDX approached its final bottom in 2017-2018, gold traded sideways. Today, however, gold is already in a downtrend. From a medium-term perspective, the yellow metal’s behavior is actually more bearish than it was in 2017-2018.Also supporting the historical analogue, the USD Index’s current breakout above its 50-day moving average is exactly what added gasoline to the USDX’s 2018 fire. Case in point? After the 2018 breakout, the USDX surged back to its previous high. Today, that level is roughly 94.5.Based on this week’s rally it seems that the final bottom formed on Tuesday (Feb. 16) – just 2 trading days away from the analogy-based target, and in perfect tune with what I wrote back then. The breakout above both: the declining blue line, and the 50-day moving average was verified, and the short-term outlook here is clearly bullish.But isn’t the current situation similar to what happened in mid-2020? The correction that was followed by another decline?In a way, it is. In both cases, the USD Index moved higher after a big decline, but that’s about it as far as important similarities are concerned.What is different is the entire context. Even a single look at the above chart provides an instant answer. The mid-2020 correction was like the mid-2017 correction, and what we see right now is the post-bottom breakout, just as we saw in the first half of 2018.There are multiple details on the above chart that confirm it, including the sizes of the medium-term declines, the position of the price relative to the declining support/resistance lines, as well as relative to the 50-day moving average, and even the green arrows in the RSI indicator show how similar the preceding action was in case of this indicator. The vertical dashed line shows “where we are right now” in case of the analogy.Also, the fact that the general stock market has not yet declined in any substantial way only makes the short-term outlook worse (particularly for silver and miners). When stocks do slide, they would be likely to impact the prices of miners and silver particularly strongly.And please remember, we’re looking for the bottom in the precious metals sector not because we’re the enemy of gold or the precious metals investor . On the contrary, we’re that true friend that tells you if something’s not right, even if it may be unpleasant to hear. We want to buy more and at better prices close to the bottom, and we’ll continue to strive to assist you with that as well.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

In keeping with last week’s theme, the market has mainly traded sideways this week. However, that correction I’ve been calling for weeks? We have potentially started.While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.Bank of America also echoed this statement and said last week that “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”Yes, the sentiment is still positive. That won’t change overnight. Vaccines seem more effective than we thought, especially against other variants of the virus. All that extra stimulus money and record low-interest rates could keep pushing stocks to more records and stimulate pent-up consumer spending. It’s not like the Fed is going to switch this policy up anytime soon, either.They don’t call it a stimulus for nothing.For weeks we’ve likely been in a rational bubble. Dhaval Joshi , the chief European investment strategist for BCA Research, has said that low bond yields meant the rally we’ve seen with stocks made sense.“Rational, because the nosebleed valuations are justified by a fundamental driver. And not just any fundamental driver, but the most fundamental driver of all – the bond yield.”Take a look at this chart comparing a “rational bubble” to an “irrational bubble.”But now? Things have possibly changed. Complacency, valuations, surging bond yields, and inflation concern me.They’re all connected. But look especially into the 10-year yield. It’s hovering around 1.30% for the first time in over a year.Why is this concerning?Rising interest rates=less attractive stocks.Look at this other chart. Forward P/E ratios are continuing to rise along with bond yields. In high-growth sectors, such as tech, this is especially concerning. The chart shows, in fact, that tech earnings yields have now been surpassed by the bond yield plus a fixed amount.The only three ways this can be resolved are for stock prices to decline, bond yields to fall, or earnings to rise and improve stock valuations. Considering earnings season is over, only options 1 or 2 seem feasible in the near-term.You combine this info with the Buffet Indicator (Total US stock market valuation/GDP), and you have a market that could be 228% overvalued.I’ve already correctly called the Russell 2000’s pullback after how much it’s overheated. Since February 9th, when I switched the call to a sell, it’s declined roughly 3.40%.More could follow.Look. Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017), and we haven’t seen one in a year.A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. A Needed Cool Down for the Russell 2000Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)Since February 9, the Russell 2000 small-cap index has lagged behind the other indices after significantly overheating. I switched my call to a SELL then, and it promptly declined by 3.40%.I do love small-caps for 2021, though, and I really like this decline. If it declines about another 1.50%, I’d feel more confident switching the call to a BUY.As tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , small-cap stocks have been on a rampage since November.Since the market’s close on October 30, the IWM has gained nearly 44.5% and more than doubled ETFs’ returns tracking the larger indices. If you thought that the Nasdaq was red hot and frothy, you have no idea about the Russell 2000.Not to mention, year-to-date, it’s already up a staggering 14%.Judging from these types of returns, the IWM’s decline since February 9 is hardly shocking. But for me, it’s still not enough, outside of switching the call to a HOLD.It pains me not to recommend you to BUY the Russell just yet. I love this index’s outlook for 2021. Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world could bode well for small-caps. Consumer spending, especially for small-caps, could be very pent-up as well.But we need to just hold on and wait for it to cool down just a little bit more for a better entry point.HOLD. If and when there is a deeper pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as the streaky S&P, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Stocks are predictably staging a continued recovery from the mostly sideways correction – a shallow one not strong enough to break the bulls‘ back. Credit markets are largely behaving – with the exception of long-term Treasuries, which I see as highly likely to draw the Fed‘s attention – just as I discussed in detail yesterday. The S&P 500 keeps doing fine, and so does my open position there – in the black again. On one hand, volatility remains low regardless of intraday attempts to rise, on the other hand, the put/call ratio has risen quite high yesterday – it‘s as if the traders are expecting a shoe to drop, similarly to the end of Jan. Will it, is there any on the horizon?Treasuries at the long-end are falling like a stone, and those on the short end (3-months) are seeing higher prices in 2021. The bond market is clearly under pressure, and exerting influence primarily upon precious metals (and commodities such as oil, which are experiencing a down day today, after quite a string of foreseeable gains). The bearish sentiment in gold and miners is running rampant, and it‘s been only yesterday when I answered a question on ominous head and shoulders patterns in the making, at my own site. This clearly illustrates the razor edge we‘re at in precious metals:(…) This is more often than not the case with H&S patterns – they are not the most reliable ones, highly judgemental at times, and their targets are more often than not far away, which makes them a not fully reliable trading proposition when a long enough time (trade) series is taken. I rather look at what is driving individual moves – which asset classes influence it the most at a given time? Where to look for so as to get most precise information? With gold and gold miners (they still trade quite tightly together), it's the Treasury yields on the long end.As I wrote in today's (Feb 18) precious metals report, despite the new 2021 lows in TLT, gold isn't amplifying the pressure – it's trading well above the $1,770 level, and enjoys a stronger session today than silver. Look at the gold – TLT evolving relationship, as that's the key determinant right now. The post-Nov dynamic speaks in gold's favor – under the surface. Don't underestimate the Fed either.Plenty to talk and cover in the precious metals really – just as usual at such crossroads. Let‘s briefly recap all the ducks lining up in stocks first.Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and VolatilityRepeated lower knots mark a refusal to decline as the daily dips keep being bought. Given the constructive developments in high yield corporate bonds and its key ratio (HYG and HYG:SHY), I fully expect the uptrend to keep reasserting itself once again. The talk about a top, imminent correction or stretched valuations, is still premature.The best known volatility measure is still refusing to rise on a lasting basis, indicating that the environment remains favorable to higher stock prices.Dollar and TreasuriesThe world reserve currency is on the doorstep of another powerful decline, and not initiating a bull market run. The caption says it all – this is the time for antidollar plays to thrive in our era of ample credit, unprecedented money creation that‘s triggering a Roaring Twenties style of speculative environment, not a Kondratieff winter with a deflationary shock as you might hear some argue.Look around, check food, energy, or housing prices, and you‘ll see how connected to reality are the calls of those writing that inflation isn‘t a problem (monetary inflation lifting many asset classes). Check that against Fed President Daly stating that the inflationary pressures now point downwards… and make your own conclusions about the new money wave hitting the real economy.Gold, Silver and MinersJust as gold is challenging (resting on) the late Nov lows, so is the miners to gold ratio. That‘s a key one – I mentioned at the very end of Jan that I would like to see it start to lead higher. Seeing the latest two-day losing streak, it‘s not happening, and the late Jan breakdown which might have turned out to be false, may not materialize in the short run. Let‘s get a proper perspective by displaying this chart in weekly format.Is this the dreadful breakdown threating doom and gloom in the precious metals? Zooming out definitely provides a very different take – a more objective one than letting (fear) emotions run high and tickitis to take over.We‘re still consolidating, and not making lower lows – regardless of this week‘s increased gold sensitivity to rising yields as seen in the plunging TLT values. Inflation is making its way through the system as surely as Titanic‘s watertight compartments were filled with water. I‘ve discussed on Wednesday at length inflation, past Fed action and asset appreciation, and yesterday explained why the central bank will be tied into a war on two fronts as it gets to seek control over the yield curve at the long end too.Another short-term worrying chart as silver miners are caught in last days‘ selling whirlwind. Even the juniors lost their short-term edge over the seniors, making me think that a potential washout event before a more universal sectoral rebound, might be at hand.Pretty worrying for those who are all in gold – unless they took me up on last Friday‘s repeated idea that silver is going to outperform gold in the next precious metals upleg, which I formulated that day into a spread (arbitrage) trade long silver, short gold. Check out the following chart how that would have worked out for you.The dynamics favoring silver are unquestionable – starting from varied and growing industrial applications, strengthening manufacturing and economy recovery, poor outlook in silver above ground stockpile and recycling, to the white metal being also a monetary metal. Silver is bound to score better gains than gold, marred by the Bitcoin allure, would. SummaryThe bearish push in stocks didn‘t indeed take the sellers far – just as I wrote yesterday, there was no reason to hold on to your hat. The stock bull run is firmly entrenched, and there are no signals thus far pointing to an onset of a deeper correction right away as all we‘re going through, is a shallow correction (in time especially).Bearish dollar, $1.9T or similar stimulus not priced in, and yet gold isn‘t taking a dive. Amid very positive fundamentals, it‘s the technicals that are short-term challenging for gold – we‘re in truly unchartered territory given the economic policies pursued. I stand by my call to watch the TLT chart very closely – it looks like an orderly TLT decline is what gold needs, not a selling stampede. Despite the current disclocation with gold being the weakest of the weak (I am looking at commodities for cues), I still stand by the call that a new PMs upleg is only a question of time – a shortening one, at that.

Indices, for the most part, closed fractionally higher to end the week. But a new headwind for stocks could be more concerning - rising bond yields.That correction I’ve been calling for weeks could have potentially started.While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.Bank of America also echoed this statement and said last week that “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”But rather than looking at the past, let’s take a look at what’s on tap this week to get you ready for what could potentially be a volatile week ahead.This coming week, be on the lookout for the January leading indicator index, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending.On Tuesday, we will also receive the February Consumer Confidence Index; on Wednesday, the Census Bureau will release upcoming home sales. On Friday, the University of Michigan will release its Consumer Sentiment Index.Of course, as we’ve seen in weeks past, jobless claims from the previous week will be announced on Thursday too. After outperforming the last few weeks, the jobless claims announced last Thursday (Feb. 18) grossly underperformed and reached their worst levels in nearly a month.Earnings season has been outstanding but is winding down now. Be on the lookout this week for earnings from Royal Caribbean (RCL) on Monday (Feb. 22), Square (SQ) on Tuesday (Feb. 23), Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday (Feb. 24), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Moderna (MRNA) on Thursday (Feb. 25).We have the makings of a volatile week, and as I mentioned before, a possible correction.Look. Don’t panic. We have a very market-friendly monetary policy, and corrections are more common than most realize. Corrections are also healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017), and we haven’t seen one in a year.While it won’t happen for sure, I feel like it’s inevitable because of how much we have surged over the last few months.A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Will the Russell 2000 Overheat Again?Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)The Russell 2000 popped on Friday (Feb. 19) after seeing a bit of a pullback since February 9. Between February 9 and the close on February 18, the Russell 2000 lagged behind the other indices after significantly overheating. I switched my call to a SELL then on the 9th, and it promptly declined by 3.40% before Friday’s session.I foresaw the pullback but cautiously saw a rally and switched to a HOLD call before it popped over 2% on Friday (Feb. 19).I do love small-caps for 2021, and I liked the decline before Friday. However, I feel like the index needs a minimum decline of 5% from its highs before switching it to a BUY.As tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , small-cap stocks have been on a rampage since November.Since the market’s close on October 30, the IWM has gained nearly 47.56% and more than doubled ETFs’ returns tracking the larger indices. If you thought that the Nasdaq was red hot and frothy, you have no idea about the Russell 2000.Not to mention, year-to-date, it’s already up a staggering 16.38%.It pains me not to recommend you to BUY the Russell just yet. I love this index’s outlook for 2021. Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world could bode well for small-caps. Consumer spending, especially for small-caps, could be very pent-up as well.But we just need to hold on and wait for it to cool down just a little bit more for a better entry point.HOLD. If and when there is a deeper pullback, BUY for the long-term recovery.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as the streaky S&P, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The narrow trading range in stocks continues, and the shallow sideways correction will eventually resolve itself with another upleg. The signs are countless, and the riskier part of the credit market spectrum agrees. As money flows from the Tresury markets, and sizable cash balances are sitting on many a balance sheet, there is plenty of fuel to power the S&P 500 advance.With volatility in the tame low 20s and the put/call ratio again moving down, the bears‘ prospects are bleak. As I wrote last week, their time is running out, and a new stock market upleg approaches. It‘s the bond market that‘s under pressure, with both investment grade corporate bonds and long-dated Treasuries suffering in the accelerated decline.Gold is the most affected, as the sensitivity of its reaction to the rising long-tern yields, has picked up very noticeably. How long before these draw both the Fed‘s attention and action – what will we learn from Powell‘s testimony on Tue and Wed? And when will the much awaited stimulus finally arrive, and force repricing beyond the metals markets?Before that, gold remains on razor‘s edge, while silver leads and platinum flies for all the green hydrogen promise. The dollar has given back on Thu and Fri what it gained two days before, and remains in its bear market. Not even rising yields were able to generate much demand for the world reserve currency. Its lower prices stand to help gold thanks to the historically prevailing negative correlation, counterbalancing the Treasury yields pressure.Plenty of action that‘s bound to decide the coming weeks‘ shape in the precious metals. And not only there as oil experienced 2 days of lossess in a row – practically unheard of in 2021 so far. On Saturday, I‘ve added a new section to my site, Latest Highlight, for easier orientation in the milestone calls and timeless pieces beyond the S&P 500 and gold. Enjoy!Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe weekly indicators suggest that a reversal is still not likely. There is no conviction behind the weekly decline, and signs are still pointing to a sideways consolidation underway.The daily chart reflects the relatively uneventful trading – we‘re in a phase of bullish base building before powering off to new highs. See how little the daily indicators have retreated from their extended readings, and the barely noticeable price decline associated.S&P 500 InternalsAll the three market breadth indicators show improved readings, and my eyes are on new highs new lows throwing their weight behind the prior two indicators‘ advance. The overall impression is one of balance.The value to growth (VTV:QQQ) ratio shows that tech (XLK ETF) has fallen a bit out out of step recently – we‘re undergoing another microrotation into value stocks. The stock market leadership is thus broadening, confirming the findings from the advance-decline line (and advance-decline volume) examination.Credit MarketsOne chart to illustrate the bond market pressures – high yield corporate bonds are holding gained ground while investment grade corporate bonds and long-dated Treasuries are plunging like there is no tomorrow. With each of their rebound attempt sold, the dislocations are increasing – a great testament to the euphoric stage of the stock market advance. Gold and TreasuriesGold price action isn‘t as bearish as it might seem based on last week‘s moves. Yes, the readiness to decline in sympathy with rising yields, is diconcerting, but the yellow metal stopped practically at the late Nov lows, and refused to decline further. Low prices attracted buying interest, and due to the overwhelmingly negative sentiment for the week ahead, the yellow metal may surprise on the upside. Time for the bulls to prove themselves as the tone of coming weeks‘ trading in gold is in the balance.The daily chart‘s correlation coefficient has moved into strongly positive territory in 2021, illustrating the headwinds gold faces. Despite the prevailing wisdom, such strongly positive correlation isn‘t the rule over extended periods of time. That‘s the message of the daily chart – but let‘s step back and see the bigger picture similarly to the way I did on Friday witht the $HUI:$GOLD ratio.Not an encouraging sight at the moment. The tightness of mutual relationship is there, and given the decreased focus on timing (one candle representing one week) coupled with the correlation coefficient being calculated again over a 20 period sample, the week just over shows that regardless of the post-Nov resilience, gold is clearly getting under more pressure.Gold and DollarLet‘s do the same what I did about long-term Treasuries and gold, also about the dollar and gold. Their historically negative correlation is receding at the moment as the two face their own challenges. The key question is when and from what level would the fiat currency and its nemesis return to trading in the opposite directions. Such a time is highly likely to be conducive to higher gold prices.On the weekly chart, the negative correlation periods are winning out in length and frequency. Certainly given the less sensitive timining component through weekly candlesticks and 20-period calculation, the current strength and level of positive correlation is rather an exception and not a rule. Combining this chart‘s positive correlation between the two with the daily chart‘s negative yet rising readings, highlights in my view a potential for seeing an upset in the momentary relationship.In other words, the gold decline over the past now almost 7 months going hand in hand with mostly sliding dollar, would turn into higher gold prices accompanied by lower dollar values. How much higher gold prices, that depends on the long-term Treasuries market – that‘s the one playing the decisive role, not the dollar at the moment.Gold, Silver and MinersSilver is doing fine, platinum very well, while gold struggles and needs to prove itself. That‘s the essence of the long silver short gold trade idea – the silver to gold ratio attests to that.Quoting from Friday‘s analysis:(…) The dynamics favoring silver are unquestionable – starting from varied and growing industrial applications, strengthening manufacturing and economy recovery, poor outlook in silver above ground stockpile and recycling, to the white metal being also a monetary metal. Silver is bound to score better gains than gold, marred by the Bitcoin allure, would. Final chart of today‘s extensive analysis is about the two miners to gold ratios, and the divergencies they show. The ETF-based one (GDX:GLD) is sitting at support marked by both the late Nov and late Jan lows, while $HUI:$GOLD is probing to break below its late Jan lows, and these were already lower than the respective late Nov lows.Both ratios are sending a mixed picture, in line with the theme of my latest reports – gold is on razor‘s edge, and the technical picture is mixed given its latest weakness. That‘s the short run – I expect that once the Fed‘s hand is twisted enough in TLT and TLH, and speculation on yield curve control initiation rises, the focus in the precious metals would shift to inflation and its dynamics I‘ve described both on Wed and Fri. SummaryThe sellers in stocks aren‘t getting far these days, and signals remain aligned behind the S&P 500 advance to reassert itself. Neither the Russell 2000, nor emerging markets are flashing divergencies, and the path of least resistance in stocks remains higher.Gold‘s short-term conundrum continues - positive fundamentals that are going to turn even more so in the near future, yet the key charts show the king of metals under pressure, with long-term Treasury yields arguably holding the key to gold‘s short-term future. The decoupling events seen earlier this month, got a harsh reality check in the week just over. Yet, that‘s not a knock-out blow – the medium- and long-term outlook remains bright, and too many market players have rushed to the short side in the short run too.

The recent FOMC minutes are hawkish and negative for the price of gold, but the Fed will remain generally dovish for some time.Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) published minutes from its last meeting in January . They reveal that Fed officials became more optimistic about the economy than they were in December. The main reasons behind the more upbeat economic projection were the progress in vaccinations, the government’s stimulus provided by the Consolidated Appropriations Act 2021, and the expectations of an additional sizable tranche of fiscal support in the pipeline:Most participants expected that the stimulus provided by the passage of the CAA in December, the likelihood of additional fiscal support, and anticipated continued progress in vaccinations would lead to a sizable boost in economic activity.The Committee members were so convinced that the longer-run prospects for the economy had improved, that they decided to skip reference to the risks to the outlook in their official communications:in light of the expected progress on vaccinations and the change in the outlook for fiscal policy, the medium-term prospects for the economy had improved enough that members decided that the reference in previous post-meeting statements to risks to the economic outlook over the medium term was no longer warranted.Hence, the recent minutes are generally hawkish and bad for gold . They show that the FOMC participants turned out to be more optimistic about the U.S. economy over the medium-term, as they started to expect “strong growth in employment, driven by continued progress on vaccinations and an associated rebound of economic activity and of consumer and business confidence, as well as accommodative fiscal and monetary policy.”And, although they acknowledged that inflation may rise somewhat in 2021, the Fed officials generally were not concerned about strong upward pressure, with “most” participants still believing that inflation risks were weighted to the downside rather to the upside. In other words, they expect more growth than inflation.Implications for GoldThe Fed officials that have become more optimistic about the economy are proving negative for gold prices. Gold shines most when the Fed is pessimistic about GDP growth and the labor market, as these two factors are more prone to loosen the Fed’s monetary policy . In other words, gold prices need more inflation than economic growth in order to grow. Alternatively, gold needs the Fed to do something and expand its monetary accommodation.Indeed, the last week hasn’t been good for the price of the yellow metal. As the chart below shows, it declined below $1,800 to $1,773 on Thursday (Feb. 18), the lowest level since November 2020.Of course, the decline in the gold prices was more related to the significant selloff in the U.S. bond market than to the FOMC minutes. The bond yields increased sharply. For instance, the 10-year TIPS yields rose from -1.06 on February 10 to -0.87 on February 18, 2021, as one can see in the chart below.However, both events clearly show elevated expectations about the medium-term economic growth. Both investors and central bankers have become more optimistic about the future amid progress in vaccinations and greater prospects for additional fiscal stimulus. The strengthened risk appetite has supported equity prices, making some investors head for the exits in the gold market .Having said that, although gold prices still have some room to go lower – especially if real interest rates rally further – the fundamentals are still positive . I’m referring here to the fact that the U.S. economy has fallen into the debt trap . Both private and public debt is enormous. In such an environment, the interest rates cannot significantly increase, as they would pose a great risk to an overvalued equity market and Treasury. So, the Fed wouldn’t allow for really high interest rates and would intervene, either through expanding its quantitative easing program or through capping the yield curve .Another issue is that the Fed is not going to change its dovish monetary policy anytime soon. Even in the recent, relatively upbeat minutes, Fed officials acknowledged that economic conditions were far from the central banks’ targets:Participants observed that the economy was far from achieving the Committee’s broad-based and inclusive goal of maximum employment and that even with a brisk pace of improvement in the labor market, achieving this goal would take some time (…) Participants noted that economic conditions were currently far from the Committee’s longer-run goals and that the stance for policy would need to remain accommodative until those goals were achieved.Moreover, the Fed’s staff assessed the financial vulnerabilities of the U.S. financial system as being notable . The asset valuation pressures are elevated, and vulnerabilities associated with business and household debt increased over the course of 2020, from levels that were already elevated before the outbreak of the pandemic . So, given all these fragilities, it is unlikely that we will see a really hawkish Fed or significantly higher interest rates. There is also a possibility of the next financial crisis, given the high debt levels. All these factors should support gold prices in the long-term, although more declines in the short-term are possible of course, due to the more positive sentiment among investors and rising bond yields.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

S&P 500 is getting under modest pressure, and technology is to blame. Is the correction about to turn nasty from sideways? Still no signs of that, even as the investment grade corporate bonds are being sold of as hard as long-term Treasuries. Yet, these corporate instruments have only now broken below their late Oct lows – unlike long-dated Treasuries, whose price action resembles free fall.These government debt instruments are arguably the key asset class for every precious metals investor to watch. What used to be gentle decoupling signs over the latest weeks and months, got thoroughly tested the prior week. Yet, I stood firm in not calling gold down and out. The support zone at late Nov lows generated a rebound that was oh so likely to materialize.Silver naturally outperformed, both copper and oil had a strong day, and agrifoods are making new highs. The inflation dynamics described in Friday‘s article aptly called Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals, continues unabated, and the pressure keeps building inside the metals and commodities. Not even the dollar managed to benefit from the rising yields – the resumption of its bear market I called on Feb 08, is one of the 2021 themes. Money keeps flowing from the Treasuries market, and there is plenty sitting on the sidelines (corporate or private) to still deploy and power stocks and precious metals higher. Also those ready to withstand Bitcoin volatility (hello, the weekend Elon Musk tweet follow through), stand to benefit – cryptos are behaving like a store of value, a hedge against currency debasement. I wrote in my very first 2021 analysis that the Bitcoin correction wouldn‘t get far.Powell‘s testimony is about to bring volatility, but does it have the power to change underlying trends? Not really – while his latest high profile assessments brought about a downswing, stocks recovered in spite of the GameStop (contagion?) drama too. Should we see a replay of the above, new highs are coming – and they are, in both stocks and precious metals. We‘re in a commodities supercycle on top!Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe daily chart shows yesterday‘s turn of events clearly. The volume increased, indicating that the bulls will need to grapple with more downside.Both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume have curled noticeably, yet new highs new lows continues higher. That‘s a confirmation of the broad based nature of the stock market advance, further illustrated with the following chart.What if all the constituent shares in the S&P 500 had equal weight (i.e. there is no $NYFANG)? The above chart is the reflection – and it‘s challenging the latest highs. The rotation theme I‘m discussing so often, means in this case taking the baton from tech, and seeing it pass to value stocks. Such broad advance is a healthy characteristic of bull runs far from making a top.TechnologyHere is the culprit behind yesterday‘s decline – on increasing volume, technology (XLK ETF) has plunged. Yet it‘s the semiconductors (XSD ETF) that I am looking at for clues as to how reasonable has the decline been. And given how the tech is holding up, it‘s a bit accentuated.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is still behaving reasonably – the overlaid S&P 500 prices (black line) aren‘t accelerating to the downside. Thus far, everything keeps pointing to stocks behaving a bit more sensitively than throughout 2021 mostly, yet far from crashing or showing their readiness to. The real correction has to wait still – this is not the real deal.Gold, Silver and TreasuriesGold price action indeed proved not to be as bearish. Finally, we‘re seeing a clear refusal to move down even as Treasury yields continue to plunge. How long will this new dynamics stick, where would it take the yellow metal? I treat it as a valuable first swallow.The scissors between gold and silver keep widening, and the white metal again outperformed yesterday. That‘s exactly the dynamics of the new precious metals upleg that I‘m expecting.Both depicted miners to gold ratios show a clear pattern of post Nov resilience. GDX:GLD is not breaking to new lows, while $HUI:$GOLD rejected them. Bobbing around, searching for a local bottom before launching higher? That‘s my leading scenario.SummaryThe unfolding correction got a new twist with yesterday‘s downswing in stocks, and unless tech gets its act together, appears set to run further. Emerging markets fell harder than the Russell 2000 yesterday, which is another proof that the correction isn‘t yet over.Gold and silver price action remain encouraging, and the same can be said about oil and many other commodities. Once the stimulus bill is passed, the positive fundamentals that are going to turn even more so, given the Fed‘s accomodative policies. Will these work to stave off the rising Treasury yields as well? If so, then gold‘s fundamentals got a crucial boost, which would soon be seen in the technicals too. As I wrote yesterday, the metals didn‘t get a knock-out blow – the medium- and long-term outlook remains bright, and too many market players on the short side in the short run, means a high likelihood of a reversal – which is precisely what we saw.

What a day that was. What started off looking like a sea of red not seen in months ended with the Dow and S&P in the green.It was an overdue plummet- at least that’s what I thought at the start of the day. The Dow was down 360 points at one point, and the Nasdaq was down 3%.But by the end of the day, Jay Powell played the role of Fed Chair and investor therapist and eased the fears of the masses.The Dow closed up, the S&P snapped a 5-day losing streak, and the Nasdaq only closed down a half of a percent!You really can’t make this up.The day started gloomily with more fears from rising bond yields.Sure, the rising bonds signal a return to normal. But they also signal inflation and rate hikes from the Fed.But Powell said “not so fast” and eased market fears.“Once we get this pandemic under control, we could be getting through this much more quickly than we had feared, and that would be terrific, but the job is not done,” Powell said .He also alluded to the Fed maintaining its commitment to buy at least $120 billion a month in U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities until “substantial further progress is made with the recovery.While the slowdown (I’d stop short of calling it a “downturn”) we’ve seen lately, namely with the Nasdaq, poses some desirable buying opportunities, there still could be some short-term pressure on stocks. That correction I’ve been calling for weeks may have potentially started, despite the sharp reversal we saw today.Yes, we may see more green this week. But while I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of Q1 could happen.Bank of America also echoed this statement and said, “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”With more earnings on tap for this week with Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday (Feb. 24) and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Moderna (MRNA) on Thursday (Feb. 25), buckle up.The rest of this week could get very interesting.Look. Don’t panic. We have a very market-friendly monetary policy, and corrections are more common than most realize. Corrections are also healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017), and we haven’t seen one in a year.A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- To Buy or Not to Buy?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPWhat a difference a few weeks can make!Before, I was talking about the Nasdaq’s RSI and to watch out if it exceeds 70.Now? As tracked by the Invesco QQQ ETF , the Nasdaq has plummeted by 4.5% since February 12 and is trending towards oversold levels! I hate to say I’m excited about this recent decline, but I am. This has been long overdue, and I’m sort of disappointed it didn’t end the day lower.Now THAT would’ve been a legit buying opportunity.While rising bond yields are concerning for high-flying tech stocks, I, along with much of the investing world, was somewhat comforted by Chairman Powell’s testimony. Inflation and rate hikes are definitely a long-term concern, but for now, if their inflation target isn’t met, who’s to fight the Fed?Outside of the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq has been consistently the most overheated index. But after today, I feel more confident in the Nasdaq as a SHORT-TERM BUY.But remember. The RSI is king for the Nasdaq . If it pops over 70 again, that makes it a SELL in my book.Why?Because the Nasdaq is trading in a precise pattern.In the past few months, when the Nasdaq has exceeded 70, it has consistently sold off.December 9- exceeded an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back.January 4- exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year and declined 1.47%.January 11- declined by 1.45% after exceeding a 70 RSI.Week of January 25- exceeded an RSI of over 73 before the week and declined 4.13% for the week.I like that the Nasdaq is below the 13500-level, and especially that it’s below its 50-day moving average now. I also remain bullish on tech, especially for sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.But the pullback hasn’t been enough.Because of the Nasdaq’s precise trading pattern and its recent decline, I am making this a SHORT-TERM BUY. But follow the RSI literally.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as the streaky S&P, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The Powell inspired, coinciding (have your pick) S&P 500 stop run is almost history now, with the futures trading over 3,880 again as we speak. No surprise here, but since the long-term Treasuries plunge went on largely unabated, that‘s concerning.Even if not now as in right away, TLT and TLH have to power to trouble the stock bulls seriously. And the financials benefiting from the greater spread, won‘t save the day, as the key chart to watch now is technology and also healthcare. Healthcare especially because biotech didn‘t get its act together yesterday really, while semiconductors did better. With consumer discretionaries hurt, utilities and consumer staples can‘t be relied on in a rising rates environment, and communications can‘t save the day either. The sectoral outlook remains mixed, even as value continues greatly outperforming growth this month. The stock bulls simply need tech clearly stabilized and turning here so as to think about new S&P 500 highs again. Long-term Treasuries are starting to hold greater sway over the stock market fate now, too. The dollar‘s woes thus far continue playing out largely in the background.Did gold shake off the TLT shackles? Still early to say, but the clear, directionally opposite move gives the bulls benefit of the doubt thus far. Yesterday‘s gold session didn‘t convince me, so I am not trumpeting the end of yellow metal‘s downside yet. Still, cautious optimism remains – even in the short run, let alone for the medium- to long-term: there, the (bullish) picture is simply clearer.Let‘s remember my yesterday‘s words about trends and flashes in the pan:(…) Powell‘s testimony is about to bring volatility, but does it have the power to change underlying trends? Not really – while his latest high profile assessments brought about a downswing, stocks recovered in spite of the GameStop (contagion?) drama too. Should we see a replay of the above, new highs are coming – and they are, in both stocks and precious metals. We‘re in a commodities supercycle on top!Let‘s get right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookYesterday‘s intraday reversal reached just a little above Monday‘s closing prices, highlighting that more needs to be done for the index to regain upside momentum. The Powell testimony reversal was a good start, and stock bulls need to do more once this event gets in the rear view mirror later today. Given the premarket action reaching 3,890, the case is not lost.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) recovered, and crucially did better than stocks. The volume comparison is also a tad more positive. Should this credit market outperformance in the short run hold, then the S&P 500 is more likley to advance than not, too.High yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is still behaving reasonably – the overlaid S&P 500 prices (black line) aren‘t accelerating to the downside. The cue to move higher in stocks is apparent.TechnologyIt‘s the tech (XLK ETF) again – its yesterday‘s reversal is not nearly enough for the S&P 500 to think about taking on new highs. Semiconductors (XSD ETF) subtly outperformed, but they don‘t give outrageously bullish signs either. The tech jury is still out, and this heavyweight sector remains vulnerable, with consequences to the S&P 500 if it doesn‘t keep on the muddle through recovery path at the very least.Treasuries and DollarNo spike in TLT volume shows there isn‘t real willingness to buy the dip the way it were in mid Feb – back then, I could call for a moderation in the decline‘s pace for at least a day, now I can‘t do that. This chart presents the greatest challenge for the markets – going well beyond stocks, precious metals and commodities. Dollar bulls are predictably on the run. Truly bearish chart targeting much lower lows, in line with the theme I‘ve been banging throughout 2020‘s latter half – the dollar has gotten on the defensive, and would remain there throughout 2021. The technical rebound is over, and not even higher yields can help the greenback much.Gold, Silver and PlatinumTrue, gold‘s yesterday‘s candle leaves much to be desired for the bulls, but once again, we‘re seeing a clear refusal to move down even as Treasury yields continue to plunge. It‘s still a valuable first swallow, and more has to follow. Gold isn‘t getting anywhere in today‘s premarket while silver, copper, oil and soybeans are all up mildly. Agrifoods reached a new 2021 high yesterday – commodities clearly like and anticipate the inflationary Fed speak message they get.One look at the precious metals group – gold the laggard, silver leading, and platinum even more so – check out on the caption when the latter decoupled – 2 weeks before silver did. The anatomy of the unfolding precious metals upleg goes on in this predictable fashion, where platinum has the power to keep running more along the lines of commodities such as copper. That means powerfully.Yesterday‘s watchout though are the miners, which dragged down both the $HUI:$GOLD and GDX:GLD ratios – not below their lows, but still. A great illustration of the yellow metal‘s woes, and low credibility of its yesterday‘s candle with a sizable lower knot.SummaryStock bulls are far out of the woods yet, and technology stabilization must kick in first. Little proof thus far it‘s there, and I view the rising rates as starting to bite the stock market too.Gold and silver also got under the Powell pressure yesterday, and haven‘t escaped the confines of Treasury yields pressure thus far. The markets are clearly wary of the testimony‘s part II still.

As U.S. Treasury yields rise, gold, which is seen as an inflation hedge, is hurting. Despite the obvious warning signs, investors remain bullish.After Monday’s (Feb. 22) supposedly “groundbreaking” rally, the situation in gold developed in tune with what I wrote yesterday . The rally stopped, and miners’ decline indicated that it was a counter-trend move.Figure 1Despite Monday’s (quite sharp for a daily move) upswing, the breakdown below the neck level of the broad head-and-shoulders remains intact. It wasn’t invalidated. In fact, based on Monday’s rally and yesterday’s (Feb. 23) decline, it was verified. One of the trading guidelines is to wait for the verification of the breakdown below the H&S pattern before entering a position.What about gold stocks ratio with other stocks?Figure 2It’s exactly the same thing. The breakdown below the rising long-term support line remains intact. The recent upswing was just a quick comeback to the broken line that didn’t take it above it. Conversely, the HUI to S&P 500 ratio declined once again.Consequently, bearish implications of the breakdowns remain up-to-date . Having said that, let’s consider the more fundamental side of things.Swimming Against the CurrentAfter trading lower for six consecutive days, gold managed to muster a three-day winning streak. However, with the waves chopping and the ripple gaining steam, every swim higher requires more energy and yield’s decelerating results.For weeks , I’ve been warning that a declining copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio signaled a further downside for gold. And with the ratio declining by 2.88% last week, gold suffered a 2.51% drawdown.Please see below:Figure 3Over the long-term, the ratio is a reliable predictor of the yellow metal’s future direction. And even though the weekly reading (3.04) hit its lowest level since May 2020, it still has plenty of room to move lower.Figure 4For context, I wrote previously:To explain the chart above, the red line depicts the price of gold over the last ~21 years, while the green line depicts the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio. As you can see, the two have a tight relationship: when the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio is rising (meaning that copper prices are rising at a faster pace than the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield), it usually results in higher gold prices. Conversely, when the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio is falling (meaning that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is rising at a faster pace than copper prices), it usually results in lower gold prices.As the star of the ratio’s show, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has risen by more than 47% year-to-date (YTD) and the benchmark has surged by more than 163% since its August trough.Please see below:Figure 5On Jan. 15 , I warned that the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) had painted itself into a corner. With inflation running hot and Chairman Jerome Powell ignoring the obvious, I wrote that Powell’s own polices (and their impact on real and financial assets) actually eliminate his ability to determine when interest rates rise.As a result, the central bank had two options:If they let yields rise, the cost of borrowing rises, the cost of equity rises and the U.S. dollar is supported (all leading to shifts in the bond and stock markets and destroying the halcyon environment they worked so hard to create).To stop yields from rising, the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) has to increase its asset purchases (and buy more bonds in the open market). However, the added liquidity should have the same net-effect because it increases inflation expectations (which I mentioned yesterday, is a precursor to higher interest rates). Opening door #2, Powell’s deny-and-suppress strategy is now playing out in real time. On Feb. 23 – testifying before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee – the FED Chairman told lawmakers that inflation isn’t an issue.“We’ve been living in a world for a quarter of a century where the pressures were disinflationary,” he said.... “The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals.”And whether he’s unaware or simply ill-informed, commodity prices are surging. Since the New Year, oil and lumber prices have risen by more than 24%, while corn and copper prices are up by more than 14%.Please see below:Figure 6In addition, relative to finished goods, the entire basket of inputs is sounding the alarm.Figure 7To explain the chart above, the blue line is an index of the price businesses receive for their finished goods. Similarly, the green line is an index of the price businesses pay for raw materials. As you can see, the cost of doing business is rising at a torrent pace.More importantly though, Powell’s assertion that inflation is an urban legend has been met with eye rolls from the bond market . To repeat what I wrote above: Powell’s own policies (and their impact on real and financial assets) actually eliminate his ability to determine when interest rates rise.Case in point: the U.S. 10-year to 2-year government bond spread is now at its highest level since January 2017.Please see below:Figure 8To explain the significance, the figure is calculated by subtracting the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield from the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield. When the green line is rising, it means that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is increasing at a faster pace than the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield. Conversely, when the green line is falling, it means that the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield is increasing at a faster pace than the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield.And why does all of this matter?Because the above visual is evidence that Powell has lost control of the bond market.At the front-end of the curve, Powell can control the 2-year yield by decreasing the FED’s overnight lending rate (which was cut to zero at the outset of the coronavirus crisis). However, far from being monolithic, the 5-, 10-, and 30-year yields have the ability to chart their own paths.And their current message to the Chairman? “We aren’t buying what you’re selling.” As such, the yield curve is likely to continue its steepening stampede.Circling back to gold, all of the above supports a continued decline of the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio. With yields essentially released from captivity, even copper’s 8.02% weekly surge wasn’t enough to buck the trend.As a result, gold’s recent strength is likely a mirage. The yellow metal continues to bounce in fits and starts, thus, it’s only a matter of time before the downtrend continues. Furthermore, with the USD Index still sitting on the sidelines, a resurgent greenback would add even more concrete to gold’s wall of worry.And speaking of gold’s wall of worry, the sentiment surrounding it is far from being negative.Figure 9 - Source: Investing.comThe above chart shows the sentiment of Investing.com’s members. 64% of them are bullish on gold. As you can see above, there are also other popular markets listed: the S&P 500, Dow Jones, DAX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD Index, and Crude oil. The sentiment for gold is the most bullish of all of them. Yes, the general stock market is climbing to new all-time highs every day now, and yet, people are even more bullish on gold than they are on stocks.When gold slides, the sentiment is likely to get more bearish and particularly high “bearish” readings – say, over 80% would likely indicate a good buying opportunity. Naturally, this is not the only factor that one should be paying attention to.The bottom line? As it stands today, being long the precious metals offers a poor risk-reward proposition. However, in time (perhaps over the next several months), the dynamic will reverse, and the precious metals market will shine once again.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

USD fights back from a five-week lowEuro Trades Subdued But Supported By The Trend-Line The euro currency is trading rather mixed, a day after prices almost closed flat on Tuesday.Overall, the long-term trendline on the daily chart is supportive of prices. Therefore, we could see price action attempt to push higher.The 50-day moving average is also close and could come in as dynamic support. For the near term though, the EURUSD currency pair will need to close convincingly above the resistance area of 1.2177 and 1.2144.This resistance area is proving hard to break out in the near term. Therefore, there is a very good chance that the EURUSD might remain in a sideways range for now.To the downside, the 1.2050 level will hold the currency pair from posting further declines.The British pound sterling rose to a fresh three-year high at 1.4140. But prices were rejected intraday with the currency pair likely to close bearish or flat.Given that this pattern comes near the top end of the rally, it could potentially signal the start of a correction in the GBPUSD.The cable has not made any decent pullbacks so far. Therefore, a close below Tuesday’s low of 1.4055 could spell trouble.For the moment, prices might test the support area near 1.3950. This would mark a short-term correction in price action.The Stochastics has also moved out from the overbought levels but could signal a reversal once again.Crude Oil Rises Over 3%, Inching Closer To A Two-Year High Oil prices managed to shrug off the uncertainty of the past few days with price action once again surging.On an intraday basis, spot crude oil prices rose over 3% in what is likely to be a strong recovery. The gains come after oil prices closed bearish last week.However, at the time of writing, crude oil has managed to pare last week losses to rise higher.On the intraday charts, oil prices are yet to close fully above the previous highs of 62.97. But given the bullish momentum, we could expect to see further gains.The only downside scenario here is to see oil prices pulling back. This would mark a failure near the short-term trendline and could open the way to the downside.The support near 60.87 remains critical under such circumstances.Gold Prices Likely To Close Bearish For A Second Day The precious metal is failing to capitalize on the support level it established near the 1764 handle. Prices are falling for the second day, albeit the pace of declines is limited in comparison.To the upside, the reversal comes just a few points below the 1817.80 level. Given that this level was already established as resistance, we expect prices to hold between the two levels for the moment.On the weekly chart, we have the double bottom pattern that has formed around the 1764 handle.Therefore, a breakout above 1817.80 is needed to keep the bullish bias alive.A close above 1817.80 will open the way for gold prices to challenge the 1850 handle next.

One factor supporting our theory that Silver will find itself in its next leg up is the early release data from “The Silver Survey 2021” (a significant annual report from “The Silver Institute” in conjunction with the research firm “Metals Focus”). Their research suggests a total demand increase to an eight-year high of 1,025 billion ounces of Silver.Suppose you think of ease of covid as a catalyst. In that case, that to one side will provide more supply in the mining industry workers to return to their workplace, the other side of demand easily outweighs through a whole world returning to business as usual.Suppose demand from Solar cells to jewelry, from physical investments to Wall Street traded silver products generally increase. In that case, we find our temporary sideways range breather soon to break out above US$30 to enter the next up leg.Daily Chart of Silver in US-Dollar, Slowly but surely:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of February 25th, 2021.As you can see on the daily chart, Silver is starting to push higher through its smaller ranges within the range to prepare for a breakout and obeying the trendline (yellow dotted line) as directional support.  Gold/Silver-Ratio, Weekly Chart, The ratio suggests for Silver to catch up:Gold/Silver-Ratio, weekly chart as of February 25th, 2021.Once desperate bears have to give way to Silver’s real value and demand, we most likely see price-advances much more significant than generally assumed.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, And the future is bright, Silver, when everything fits:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of February 25th, 2021.The last eleven month’s price advances might seem staggering regarding percentage. Especially if you consider that a physical ounce of Silver is currently sold around US$40. Hence, we still see Silver prices reaching three-digit numbers at some point in the next few years. Midterm projections already show Silver prices sitting right above major support from a volume based analysis. And linear regression channel projection points at substantial advances within this year.Silver, when everything fits:We find ourselves in an uptrend in Silver. It just has established its first foundation and has a great range of expansion to offer. Consequently, this results in an excellent risk/reward-ratio for participation. In addition, fundamental long-term data supports the sustainability of that trend. Most importantly a world fiscal policy forces investor into safe havens. Also, the Gold/Silver-Ratio suggests Silver to be the underdog with much ground to catch up. We might see Silver prices in an entirely different echelon in the not too far distant future.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|February 25th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Powell testimony is over, with markets rejoicing the promise of still accomodative Fed. Value keeps surging over growth, and regardless of yesterday‘s great performance, tech has a vulnerable feel to it – semiconductors lead higher, fine, but communications didn‘t confirm, and the healthcare-biotech dynamic isn‘t painting an outperformance picture either. Real estate isn‘t taking as strong a cue while consumer discretionaries recovery could also be stronger. Thus far though, no need to think about taking losses to optimize your gains elsewhere.Just as I wrote yesterday:(…) the financials benefiting from the greater spread, won‘t save the day, as the key chart to watch now is technology and also healthcare. … The sectoral outlook remains mixed, even as value continues greatly outperforming growth this month. … Long-term Treasuries are starting to hold greater sway over the stock market fate now, too. The dollar‘s woes thus far continue playing out largely in the background.Did gold shake off the TLT shackles? I‘m getting increasing doubts that only a strong move to the upside would dispel. As long-term Treasuries were staging an intraday reversal, gold took an intraday plunge before recovering. Not a good sign of internal intraday strength. Could it be a bullish flag? Still possible, but again, gold would have to rally from here. Doing so would result in a bullish divergence in its daily indicators.The precious metals sectoral dynamics remains positive though – silver and platinum are bullishly consolidating, and as I‘ll show you in today‘s final chart, the many mining indices are doing fine as well. The overly strong reflationary (I would call a spade a spade, and say inflationary) efforts are driving commodities higher in a supercycle just starting out.Not to get complacent, GameStop (GME) squeeze has made a comeback yesterday. Will it coincide with broader stock market woes on par with late Jan? Way too early to say – let‘s jump right into the charts for an objective momentary view instead.Here they are, all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com.S&P 500 and Its InternalsStrong S&P 500, everything looks fine on the surface – just as should be, befitting buy the dip mentality. Strong volume, no meaningful intraday setback, so far so good.The equal weight S&P 500 chart is looking better and better day by day. New highs, strong uptrend, broadening leadership. It‘s a mirror reflection of the big names‘ woes, and a testament to value outperforming growth. This bull run is far from making a top.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) had a good day yesterday, and so did the high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio. Yet it‘s the daily stock market outperformance that is noticeable here – optimistic sign of an all clear signal. I‘m not taking it totally at face value given tech performance – in a short few days, I can easily become more convinced though.TechnologyStrong daily tech (XLK ETF) upswing, yet only half the prior downside erased so far, and the volume could be higher compared to the preceding downswing. Semiconductors (XSD ETF) are leading again, fine. Yet it‘s the heavyweight names that matter the most to me right now – check out yesterday‘s observations:(…) The tech jury is still out, and this heavyweight sector remains vulnerable, with consequences to the S&P 500 if it doesn‘t keep on the muddle through recovery path at the very least.DollarLook how little the Powell tremors achieved – the dollar bulls are still on the run. Upswings are being sold as the greenback remains on the defensive, targeting much lower lows this year. The technical rebound is over, and not even higher yields can help the greenback much.Gold, Silver and MinersFor a second day in a row, gold‘s performance isn‘t convincing – the willingness to clearly and directionally decouple from rising yields, is being questioned. On the other hand, e.g. the 10-year UST yield is approaching the summer 2019 lows – it‘s at 1.38% now. I‘m looking for the rising rates to slow down and possibly even pull back a little from here over the coming weeks. Or would the market just like to slice through that resistance? Inflation isn‘t universally that strong right now yet I think – just look at the velocity of money.Everything silver related is doing fine, silver miners (SIL ETF) rebounded strongly, First Majestic Silver Corp (AG) and Hecla (HL) are in clearly bullish patterns. The white metal‘s every dip is being bought, the silver-to-gold ratio keeps improving, and even gold juniors (GDXJ) started once again outperforming the seniors (GDX). The bullish signals under the surface keep increadingly more coming to the fore, and the miners to gold ratio‘s ($HUI:$GOLD and GDX:GLD) is the final ingredient missing.SummaryStock bulls did great yesterday, but everything isn‘t fine yet in the tech realm. Due to its sheer weight in the S&P 500 index, pulling the cart a bit more enthusiastically is what the 500-strong index needs to take on new highs, because value stocks can‘t do it all.Gold and silver fared mostly well during the Powell testimony part II, yet gold didn‘t convince me really again. I look for the yellow metal bulls to get tested soon. The wildcard is reaction to the rising Treasury yields as they‘re in a key resistance zone of summer 2019 lows overall (10-year approaching it, and as regards 30-year, it‘s been overcome already). Plunging dollar and short-term gold-dollar correlation moving to positive figures, isn‘t a pleasant sight for coming days.

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Right from the open, stocks have been losing altitude yesterday, and value couldn‘t indeed overpower the tech slide. Long-dated Treasuries had a climactic day of incomplete reversal on outrageous volume. Regardless of the evidence of asset price inflation, there is almost universal short-term vulnerability, and yesterday‘s broad based selling spanning precious metals and commodities, confirms that. The dollar has been missing from the party though, only having reversed prior losses to close little changed on the day.Are we seeing a trend change, or a time-limited yet powerful push lower? That depends upon the asset – in stocks, I look for the tech big names and healthcare to do worse than value (the VTV:QQQ ratio jumped up greatly through the week, portending the tech issues). Both silver and gold would be under pressure, and I look for the white metal to be mostly doing better overall. Oil and copper would take a breather while remaining in bull markets.That roughly matches my very short-term idea for where the markets would trade, echoing the expressed, tweeted need to watch oil and copper turn the corner still yesterday (copper didn‘t, not confirming any intraday turnaround notions as valid) – the below being written 7hrs before the U.S. open:(…) As yesterday's session moved to a close, the dollar erased opening losses, and went neutral. TLT's massive volume shows that yields are likely to stabilize here for now, and even decline a bit – HYG absolutely didn't convince me. The oil-copper tandem didn't kick in yesterday. Right now, we're in a weak constellation with both silver, oil, and stocks down. Copper's modest uptick doesn't cut it. So, the outlook for the European session on Fri is more bearish than bullish for stocks really, and gold rather sideways in the coming hours. Would we get a bounce during the U.S. session? It‘s possible to the point of likely. The damage done yesterday though looks to have more than a few brief sessions to run to repair. If you were to be hiding in the not too greatly performing S&P 500 sectors before the uptrend reasserts itself, you would be rather fine. The same for commodities and metals which were solidly trending higher before – oil, platinum, copper. E.g. look at yesterday‘s low platinum volume, or at the modest Freeport McMoRan decline – these charts are not broken while I see silver relegated to sideways trading (with a need to defend against the bears sternly) and silver miners taking their time.Just as I wrote yesterday, technology is the most precarious spot as long-term rates are turning and the dollar hasn‘t moved yet. Should it start coming to life (it did yesterday as the 10-year yield retreated from 1.60% back below 1.50%), overcoming the 91 – 91.5 resistance zone, that would help put into perspective the concerted selling we saw yesterday, especially if it continues in future days in similar fashion.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Its InternalsThe Force Index shows that the bears have the upper edge now, and volume coupled with price action, shows no accumulation yet. The chart is worrying for it could reach the Jan lows fast if the sellers get more determined.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) reveal the damage suffered, underlined by the strong volume. High yields in TLT and LQD are starting to have an effect on stocks.Another stressed bond market chart – long-term Treasuries show a budding reversal to the upside. Given yesterday‘s happenings in the 10-year bond auction with the subsequent retreat from high yields since, and the dollar moving over 90.50 as we speak, the signs are in place for the TLT retracing part of the steep slide as well.TechnologyThe momentum in tech (XLK ETF) is with the bears as the 50-day moving average got easily pierced yesterday again. It‘s still the heavyweights that matter (roughly similar to the healthcare situation here), and the sector remains very vulnerable to further downside.VolatilityThe volatility index rose, but is far below the two serious autumn 2020 and the late Jan 2021 corrections. It even retreated on the day, regardless of the heavy S&P 500 selling. Neither the options traders are taking yesterday‘s move as a true game changer, even though it was (for the bond markets). Would the anticipated stock indices rebound today bring it down really substantially, spilling over into commodities too, and show that this indeed wasn‘t a turning point? Gold, Silver and MinersGold didn‘t rise in spite of the falling long-term Treasuries for too long, as Tue and Wed hesitation (which I view with suspicion on both days) was resolved with a strong decline. This time, I am not calling for the yellow metal to rise the way I did a week ago. It‘s that the many precious metals market signals have become less constructive too. Silver is being taken down a notch or two, and the miners are already reflecting that in yesterday‘s close. Silver miners steeply declining, the bullish outperformance of gold juniors vs. gold seniors was lost yesterday. Given the red ink on Thursday already in copper, and its arrival into oil today, the bears are having the short-term (more than several sessions) upper hand. The miners to gold ratio ($HUI:$GOLD and GDX:GLD) as the final ingredient missing, can keep on waiting.SummaryStock bulls got a harsh reality check, and everything isn‘t very fine yet in the tech arena. By the shape of things thus far, today‘s rebound is more likely than not to turn out a dead cat bounce, and more short-term downside remains likely since Monday, regardless of all the value stocks performance.Gold and silver didn‘t escape the bloodbath either, and aren‘t out of the woods – neither gold, nor silver. Treasury yields are taking a good look around, having a chance to stabilize and retreat to a degree, but gold appears unfazed thus far, and the commodities‘ dynamics doesn‘t bode well. On the other hand, the dollar looks getting ready to move higher over the coming days, and thanks to the short-term correlation between the two turning positive, that would help the embattled yellow metal down the road.

Surging bond yields continues to weigh on tech stocks. When the 10-year yield pops by 20 basis points to reach a 1-year high, that will happen.Tuesday (Feb. 23) saw the Dow down 360 points at one point, and the Nasdaq down 3% before a sharp reversal that carried to Wednesday (Feb. 24).Thursday (Feb. 25) was a different story and long overdue.Overall, the market saw a broad sell-off with the Dow down over 550 points, the S&P falling 2.45%, the Nasdaq tanking over 3.50%, and seeing its worst day since October, and the small-cap Russell 2000 shedding 3.70%.Rising bond yields are a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, bond investors see the economy reopening and heating up. On the other hand, with the Fed expected to let the GDP heat up without hiking rates, say welcome back to inflation.I don’t care what Chairman Powell says about inflation targets this and that. He can’t expect to keep rates this low, buy bonds, permit money to be printed without a care, and have the economy not overheat.He may not have a choice but to hike rates sooner than expected. If not this year, then in 2022. I no longer buy all that talk about keeping rates at 0% through 2023. It just can’t happen if bond yields keep popping like this.This slowdown, namely with the Nasdaq, poses some desirable buying opportunities. The QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq is down a reasonably attractive 7% since February 12. But there still could be some short-term pressure on stocks.That correction I’ve been calling for weeks? It may have potentially started, especially for tech. While I don’t foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of March could happen.I mean, we’re already about 3% away from an actual correction in the Nasdaq...Bank of America also echoed this statement and said, “We expect a buyable 5-10% Q1 correction as the big ‘unknowns’ coincide with exuberant positioning, record equity supply, and as good as it gets’ earnings revisions.”Look. This has been a rough week. But don’t panic, and look for opportunities. We have a very market-friendly monetary policy, and corrections are more common than most realize.Corrections are also healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017), and we haven’t seen one in a year.A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and the end of Q1 2021 is possible. I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- To Buy or Not to Buy?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPThis downturn is so overdue. More pain could be on the horizon, but this road towards a correction was needed for the Nasdaq.Before February 12, I would always discuss the Nasdaq’s RSI and recommend watching out if it exceeds 70.Now? As tracked by the Invesco QQQ ETF , the Nasdaq has plummeted by nearly 7% since February 12 and is trending towards oversold levels! I hate to say I’m excited about this recent decline, but I am.While rising bond yields are concerning for high-flying tech stocks, I, along with much of the investing world, was somewhat comforted by Chairman Powell’s testimony the other day (even if I don’t totally buy into it). Inflation and rate hikes are definitely a long-term concern, but for now, if their inflation target isn’t met, who’s to fight the Fed?Outside of the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq has been consistently the most overheated index. But after its recent slowdown, I feel more confident in the Nasdaq as a SHORT-TERM BUY.The RSI is king for the Nasdaq . Its RSI is now under 40, which makes it borderline oversold.I follow the RSI for the Nasdaq religiously because the index is simply trading in a precise pattern.In the past few months, when the Nasdaq has exceeded an overbought 70 RSI, it has consistently sold off.December 9- exceeded an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back.January 4- exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year and declined 1.47%.January 11- declined by 1.45% after exceeding a 70 RSI.Week of January 25- exceeded an RSI of over 73 before the week and declined 4.13% for the week.I like that the Nasdaq is almost the 13100-level, and especially that it’s below its 50-day moving average now.I also remain bullish on tech, especially for sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.Because of the Nasdaq’s precise trading pattern and its recent decline, I am making this a SHORT-TERM BUY. But follow the RSI literally.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as the streaky S&P, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Precious metal and crypto analysis exclusively for Celtic Gold on 27.02.2021Gold has been in a long and tenacious correction for nearly seven months already. On Friday the gold-market shocked traders and investors with yet another bloodbath similar to the one seen end of November last year. However, this capitulation probably means: Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!ReviewThe price for one troy ounce of gold hit a new all-time high of US$2,075 on August 7th, 2020 and has been in a tough correction since then. After a first major interim low on November 30th at around US$1,764, gold posted a rapid yet deceptive recovery up to US$1.959. Since that high point on January 6th, the bears have taken back control.Obviously, the two sharp sell-offs on January 6th and January 8th had demoralized the bulls in such a strong way that they have not been able to get back on their feet since then. And although the bullish forces were still strong enough to create a volatile sideways period in January, since early February the bears were able to slowly but surely push prices lower.Just yesterday day gold finally broke below its support zone around US$1,760 to 1,770, unleashing another wave of severe selling into the weekly close. Now after seven month of correction, spot gold prices have reached a new low at US$1,717.© Crescant Capital via Twitter ©Tavi Costa, February 18th 2021On the other hand, the relative strength of silver remains strikingly positive. In this highly difficult market environment for precious metals, silver was able to trade sideways to up since the start of the new year. The same can be said of platinum prices.Overall, the turnaround in the precious metals sector has not yet taken place but seems to be extremely close. Since the nerves of market participants were significantly tested either with a tough and tenacious volatile sideways stretch torture or with sharp price drops like yesterday, most weak hands should have been discouraged and shaken off by now. At the same time, however, the sector has become pretty oversold and finally shows encouraging signs of being a great contrarian opportunity again.Technical Analysis: Gold in US-DollarGold in US-Dollars, weekly chart as of February 27th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the weekly chart gold lost the support of the middle trend line with the large uptrend channel in January. With a weekly close at US$1,734 the bears are clearly in control. However, Friday lows around US$1,725 hit pretty much exactly the long standing 38.2% fibonacci retracement from the whole wave up from US$1,160 to US$2,075. Hence, gold is meeting strong support right here around US$1,715 to US$1,730. Looking at the oversold weekly stochastic oscillator the chances for a bounce and an important turning point are pretty high. Hence, the end of this seven-month correction could be very near.However, only a clear breakout above the downtrend channel in red would confirm the end of this multi-month correction. Obviously, the bulls have a lot of work to do to just push prices back above US$1,850. If the Fibonacci retracement around US$1,725 cannot stopp the current wave of selling, then expect further downside towards the upper edge of the original rather flat uptrend channel in blue at around US$1,660. The ongoing final sell-off can easily extend a few more days but does not have to.In total, the weekly chart is still clearly in a confirmed downtrend. Prices have reached strong support at around US$1,725 and at least a good bounce is extremely likely from here. However, given the oversold setup including the sell-off on Friday there are good chances that the correction in gold is about to end in the coming week and that a new uptrend will emerge.Gold in US-Dollars, daily chart as of February 27th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, the price of gold has been sliding into a final phase of capitulation since losing contact with its 200-MA (US$1,858). Not only predominating red daily candles but also lots of downtrend-lines and resistance zones are immersing this chart into a sea of red. That itself should awake the contrarian in any trader and investor. However, it is certainly not (yet) the time to play the bullish hero here as catching a falling knife is always a highly tricky art. But at least, the daily stochastic oscillator is about to reach oversold levels. Momentum remains bearish for now of course.Overall, the daily chart is bearish. Last weeks sell-off however might be overdone and has to be seen in conjunction with the physical deliveries for February futures at the Comex. However, a final low and a trend change can only be confirmed once gold has recaptured its 200-MA. This line is currently far away, and it will likely take weeks until gold can meet this moving average again. Further downside can not be excluded but it should be rather shallow.Commitments of Traders for Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!Commitments of Traders for Gold as of February 27th, 2021. Source: CoT Price ChartsSince the beginning of the year, commercial traders have reduced their cumulative net short position in the gold futures market by more than 21% while gold prices corrected from US$1,965 down to US$1,770.Commitments of Traders for Gold as of February 27th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn the long-term comparison, however, the current net short position is still extremely high and does actually signal a further need for correction. However, this situation has been ongoing since mid of 2019. Since then, commercial traders have not been able to push gold prices significantly lower to cover their massive short positions.We can assume that since the emergence of the “repro crisis” in the USA in late summer 2019, the massive manipulation via non-physical paper ounces no longer works as it did in the previous 40 years. The supply and demand shock caused by the Corona crisis in March 2020 has certainly exacerbated this situation. In this respect, COMEX has lost its mid- to long-term weight and influence on pricing. This doesn’t mean however, that short-term sell-offs like yesterday won’t happen anymore.Nevertheless, the CoT report on its own continues to deliver a clear sell signal, similar to the last one and a half years already.Sentiment: Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!Sentiment Optix for Gold as of February 27th, 2021. Source: Sentiment traderThe weak price performance in recent weeks has caused an increasingly pessimistic mood among participants in the gold market. The Optix sentiment indicator for gold is now below its lows from November 30th. In a bull market, however, these rather pessimistic readings are rare and usually short-lived. In this respect, even the currently not extreme negative sentiment could well be sufficient for a sustainable ground and turnaround.Overall, the current sentiment analysis signals an increasingly optimistic opportunity for contrarian investors. The chances for a final low after seven months of correction are relatively good in the short term already.Seasonality: Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!Seasonality for Gold as of February 22nd, 2021. Source: SeasonaxFrom a seasonal point of view, the development in the gold market in recent weeks is in stark contrast to the pattern established over the last 52 years. Thus, a strong start to the year could have been expected well into February. Instead, gold fell sharply from US$ 1.959 down to US$1.717 so far.If one pushes the statistically proven seasonal high point from the end of February to the beginning of January, a grinding sideways to lower phase including interim recoveries as well as recurring pullbacks is still to be expected until April. The beginning of the next sustainable uptrend could therefore theoretically be estimated approximately starting in May. Of course, these are all just abstract seasonal mind games.In any case, statistically speaking, the seasonality for gold in spring is not very supportive for about four months. In this respect, the seasonal component continues to call for patience. At the latest in early summer however, gold should be able to trend higher again. The best seasonal phase typically starts at the beginning of July and lasts until the beginning of October.Sound Money: Bitcoin/Gold-RatioSound Money Bitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of February 22nd, 2021. Source: ChaiaWith prices of US$47,500 for one Bitcoin and US$1,734 for one troy ounce of gold, the Bitcoin/Gold-ratio is currently sitting at 27.39. That means you have to pay more than 27 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin. In other words, an ounce of gold currently only costs 0.036 Bitcoin. Bitcoin has thus mercilessly outperformed gold in the past few months. We had repeatedly warned against this development since early summer 2020!© Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, February 17th, 2021Generally, you should be invested in both: precious metals and bitcoin. Buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in these two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals (preferably physically), while in cryptos and especially in Bitcoin, one should hold at least 1% to 5%. Paul Tudor Jones holds a little less than 2% of his assets in Bitcoin. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, you can certainly allocate higher percentages to Bitcoin and maybe other Altcoins on an individual basis. For the average investor, who usually is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is already a lot!“Opposites complement. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the digital aspect of bitcoin (BTC-USD) you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven in the 21st century. You want to own both!”– Florian GrummesMacro update and conclusion: Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here!© Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, February 19th, 2021.In the big picture, the “confetti party” continues. As usual, the Fed’s balance sheet total rose to a new all-time high of US$7,557 billion. The increase in assets again concentrated almost entirely in the securities holdings. The Fed balance sheet total now corresponds to 35% of the US GDP.© Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, February 17th, 2021In the eurozone, the unprecedented currency creation continues as well. Here, the ECB’s balance sheet climbed to 7,079 billion EUR reaching a new all-time high. The ECB balance sheet now represents 71% of the euro-zone GDP.© Crescant Capital via Twitter ©Tavi Costa, February 12th, 2021.But the Chinese are doing it the most blatantly. Here, the money supply has increased by US$5.4 trillion since March 2020!© Crescant Capital via Twitter ©Tavi Costa, February 15th 2021.As repeatedly written at this point, the expansion of the central bank’s balance sheets has far-reaching consequences. The GSCI raw materials index has risen significantly in the past 11 months. Accordingly, inflation expectations are also rising more and more and still have a lot to catch up.© Crescant Capital via Twitter ©Tavi Costa, February 20th 2021.Wood prices in the USA provide a good example of the rapidly rising commodity prices. Lumber saw the fastest increase since 1974 and has risen by more than 35% since the beginning of the year. During the same period, gasoline increased by 20%, natural gas by 26%, agricultural raw materials are around 25% more expensive and base metals jumped over 20% higher! Hence, inflation is coming, and central bankers won’t be able to stop it.While silver and platinum have been anticipating this “trend” for weeks and have been holding up much better than gold, the precious metal sector is still in its correction phase. This correction began after a steep two-year rally in last August and can be classified as perfectly normal and healthy until now.© Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, February 18th, 2021.After seven months and a price drop of nearly US$360, the worst for gold is likely over. In view of the recent slight increase in real US yields (currently -0.92%) the pullback over the last few weeks can be justified. Yet, it is important to focus on the bigger picture. This is where the international devaluation race to the bottom continues unabated and will sooner or later lead to significantly higher gold prices too.Technically, Friday’s sell off might have marked the final low for this ongoing correction. As well, the slide could continue for a few more days, but the remaining risk to the downside seems rather shallow. In the worst-case Gold might drop to US$1,650 to US$1,680.To conclude, this means for Gold – The Final Sell-Off Is Here! The Bottom may arrive soon within the next week or has already been seen on Friday.Source: www.celticgold.euFeel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Florian Grummes|February 27th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, bitcoin/gold-ratio, Gold, Gold Analysis, Gold bullish, gold correction, Gold Cot-Report, gold fundamentals, Silver, The bottom is in|0 CommentsFlorian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.euAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks.

None of Friday‘s intraday attempts to recapture 3,850 stuck, and the last hour‘s selling pressure is an ill omen. Especially since it was accompanied by high yield corporate bondsh weakening. It‘s as if the markets only now noticed the surging long-end Treasury yields, declining steeply on Thursday as the 10y Treasury yield made it through 1.50% before retreating. And on Friday, stocks didn‘t trust the intraday reversal higher in 20+ year Treasuries either.Instead, the options traders took the put/call ratio to levels unseen since early Nov. The VIX however doesn‘t reflect the nervousness, having remained near Thursday‘s closing values. Its long lower knot looks encouraging, and the coming few days would decide the shape of this correction which I have not called shallow since Wed‘s suspicious tech upswing. Here we are, the tech has pulled the 500-strong index down, and remains perched in a precarious position. Could have rebounded, didn‘t – instead showing that its risk-on (high beta) segments such as semiconductors, are ready to do well regardless.That‘s the same about any high beta sector or stock such as financials – these tend to do well in rising rates environments. Regardless of any coming stabilization / retreat in long-term Treasury yields, it‘s my view that we‘re going to have to get used to rising spreads such as 2y over 10y as the long end still steepens. The markets and especially commodities aren‘t buying Fed‘s nonchalant attitude towards inflation. Stocks have felt the tremors, and will keep rising regardless, as it has been historically much higher rates that have caused serious issues (think 4% in 10y Treasuries).In such an environment, the defensives with low volatility and good earnings are getting left behind, as it‘s the top earners in growth, and very risk-on cyclicals that do best. They would be taking the baton from each other, as (micro)rotations mark the stock market bull health – and once tech big names join again, new highs would arrive. Then, the $1.9T stimulus has made it past the House, involves nice stimulus checks, and speculation about an upcoming infrastructure bill remains. Coupled with the avalanche of new Fed money, this is going into the real economy, not sitting on banks‘ balance sheets – and now, the banks will have more incentive to lend out. Margin debt isn‘t contracting, but global liquidity hasn‘t gone pretty much anywhere in February. Coupled with the short-term dollar moves, this is hurting emerging markets more than the U.S. - and based on the global liquidity metrics alone, the S&P 500 is oversold right now – that‘s without the stimulus package. It‘s my view that we‘re experiencing a correction whose shape is soon to be decided, and not a reversal of fortunes.Just like I wrote at the onset of Friday:(…) Would we get a bounce during the U.S. session? It‘s possible to the point of likely. The damage done yesterday though looks to have more than a few brief sessions to run to repair. True, some stocks such as Tesla are at a concerning crossroads, and in general illustrate the vulnerability of non-top tech earners within the industry. Entering Mon‘s regular session, the signs are mixed as there hasn‘t been a clear reversal any way I look at it. Still, this remains one of the dips to be bought in my view – and the signs of it turning around, would be marked by strengthening commodities, and for all these are worth, copper, silver and oil especially.As for gold, it should recover given the retreating long-term yields, but Fri didn‘t bring any signs of strength in the precious metals sector, to put it mildly. Look for TLT for directions, even as real rates, the true determinant, remain little changed and at -1%, which means very favorable fundamentals for the yellow metal. And remember that when the rate of inflation accelerates, rising rates start to bite the yellow metal less.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Its InternalsFriday‘s session doesn‘t have the many hallmarks of a reversal. Slightly higher volume, yet none of the intraday upswings held. The Force index reveals that the bears just paused for a day, that there wasn‘t a true reversal yet. The accumulation is a very weak one thus far, and the sellers can easily show more determination still.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) are plain and simple worrying here. The decent intraday upswing evaporated as the closing bell approached. A weak session not indicative of a turnaround.The high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) performance was weaker than the stock market performance, which isn‘t a pleasant development. Should the bond markets keep trading with a more pessimistic bias than stocks, it could become quite fast concerning. As said already, the shape of the correction is being decided these days.Stocks, Smallcaps and Emerging MarketsAfter having moved hand in hand, emerging markets (EEM ETF) have weakened considerably more over the prior week than both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 (IWM ETF). EEM is almost at its late Jan lows – given Fri‘s spike, watching the dollar is key, and not just here.TechnologyTechnology (XLK ETF) didn‘t reverse with clarity on Friday, regardless of positive semiconductors (XSD ETF) performance. At least the volume comparison here is positive, and indicates accumulation. Just as I was highlighting the danger for S&P 500 and gold early Thursday, it‘s the tech sector that holds the key to the 500-strong index stabilization.Gold and SilverReal rates are deeply negative, long-dated Treasuries indeed turned higher on Friday, yet gold plunged right to its strong volume profile support zone before recovering a little. Its very short-term performance is disappointing, It was already its Tue performance that I called unconvincing – let alone Wed‘s one. I maintain that it‘s long-dated Treasury yields and the dollar that are holding the greatest sway. Rates should retreat a little from here, and the gold-dollar correlation is only slightly positive now, which translates into a weak positive effect on gold prices.But it‘s silver that I am looking to for earliest signs of reversal – the white metal and its miners have the task clear cut. Weeks ago, I‘ve been noting the low $26 values as sufficient to retrace a reasonable part of prior advance, and we‘ve made it there only this late. Thu and Fri‘s weakness has much to do with the commodities complex, where I wanted still on Thu to see copper reversing intraday (to call it a risk-on reversal), which it didn‘t – and silver suffered the consequences as well. Likewise now, I‘m looking to the red metal, and will explain in today‘s final chart why.Precious Metals RatiosThere is no better illustration of gold‘s weakness than in both miners to gold ratios that are bobbing around their local lows, rebounding soundly, and then breaking them more or less convincingly again. The gold sector doesn‘t yet appear ready to run.Let‘s get the big picture through the copper to oil ratio. Its current 8 months long consolidation has been punctured in the middle with oil turning higher, outperforming the red metal – and that brought the yellow one under pressure increasingly more. Yet is the uptick in buying interest in gold a sign of upcoming stabilization and higher prices in gold that Fri‘s beaten down values indicate? Notably, the copper to oil ratio didn‘t break to new lows – and remains as valuable tool to watch as real, nominal interest rates, and various derivatives such as copper to Treasury yields or this very ratio.SummaryStock bulls are almost inviting selling pressure today with the weak finish to Fri‘s session. While the sectoral comparisons aren‘t disastrous, the credit markets indicate stress ahead just as much as emerging markets do. Still, this isn‘t the end of the bull run, very far from it – new highs are closer than quite a few might think.Gold and silver took an even greater beating on Fri than the day before. Naturally, silver is much better positioned to recapture the higher $27 levels than gold is regarding the $1,800 one. With the long-dated Treasuries stabilization indeed having resulted in a short-term dollar upswing, the greenback chart (and its effects upon the metals) is becoming key to watch these days. Restating the obvious, gold is far from out of the woods, and lacking positive signs of buying power emerging.

Is the worst of what the last few weeks brought over? February started off with so much promise, only to be ruined by surging bond yields.The way that bond yields have popped has weighed heavily on growth stocks. Outside of seeing a minor comeback on Friday (Feb. 26), the Nasdaq dropped almost 7% between February 12 and Friday’s (Feb. 26) close.Other indices didn’t fare much better either.The spike bond yields, however, in my view, are nothing more than a catalyst for stocks to cool off and an indicator of some medium to long-term concerns. But calling them a structural threat is a bit of an overstatement.Rising bond yields are a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, bond investors see the economy reopening and heating up. On the other hand, with the Fed expected to let the GDP heat up without hiking rates, inflation may return.I don’t care what Chairman Powell says about inflation targets this and that. He can’t expect to keep rates this low, buy bonds, permit money to be printed without a care, and have the economy not overheat.He may not have a choice but to hike rates sooner than expected. If not this year, then in 2022. I no longer buy all that talk about keeping rates at 0% through 2023. It just can’t happen if bond yields keep popping like this.So was the second half of February the start of the correction that I’ve been calling for? Or is this “downturn” already over?Time will tell. While I still do not foresee a crash like we saw last March and feel that the wheels are in motion for a healthy 2021, I still maintain that some correction before the end of this month could happen.Corrections are also healthy and normal market behavior, and we are long overdue for one. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017), and we haven’t seen one in almost a year.A correction could also be an excellent buying opportunity for what could be a great second half of the year.Pay attention to several things this week. The PMI composite, jobs data, and consumer credit levels will be announced this week.We have more earnings on tap this week too. Monday (March 1), we have Nio (NIO) and Zoom (ZM), Tuesday (March 2) we have Target (TGT) and Sea Limited (SE), Wednesday (March 3), we have Okta (OKTA) and Snowflake (SNOW), and Thursday (March 3) we haveBroadcom (AVGO).My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:The downturn we experienced to close out February could be the start of a short-term correction- or it may be a brief slowdown. A further downturn by the end of the month is very possible, but I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- a Buyable Slowdown?Figure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPThe Nasdaq’s downturn was so overdue. Even though more pain could be on the horizon, I like the Nasdaq at this level for some buying opportunities.If more losses come and the tech-heavy index dips below support at 13000, then it could be an even better buying opportunity. It can’t hurt to start nibbling now, though. If you waited for that perfect moment to start buying a year ago when it looked like the world was ending, you wouldn’t have gained as much as you could have.Plus, if Cathie Wood, the guru of the ARK ETFs that have continuously outperformed, did a lot of buying the last two weeks, it’s safe to say she knows a thing or two about tech stocks and when to initiate positions. Bloomberg News ’ editor-in-chief emeritus Matthew A. Winkler wouldn’t have just named anyone the best stock picker of 2020.Before February 12, I would always discuss the Nasdaq’s RSI and recommend watching out if it exceeds 70.Now? As tracked by the Invesco QQQ ETF , the Nasdaq has plummeted almost 7% since February 12 and is closer to oversold than overbought. !While rising bond yields are concerning for high-flying tech stocks, I, along with much of the investing world, was somewhat comforted by Chairman Powell’s testimony last week (even if I don’t totally buy into it). Inflation and rate hikes are definitely a long-term concern, but for now, if their inflation target isn’t met, who’s to fight the Fed?Outside of the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq has been consistently the most overheated index. But after its recent slowdown, I feel more confident in the Nasdaq as a SHORT-TERM BUY.The RSI is king for the Nasdaq . Its RSI is now around 40.I follow the RSI for the Nasdaq religiously because the index is merely trading in a precise pattern.In the past few months, when the Nasdaq has exceeded an overbought 70 RSI, it has consistently sold off.December 9- exceeded an RSI of 70 and briefly pulled back.January 4- exceeded a 70 RSI just before the new year and declined 1.47%.January 11- declined by 1.45% after exceeding a 70 RSI.Week of January 25- exceeded an RSI of over 73 before the week and declined 4.13% for the week.I like that the Nasdaq is almost at its support level of 13000, and especially that it’s below its 50-day moving average now.I also remain bullish on tech, especially for sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.Because of the Nasdaq’s precise trading pattern and its recent decline, I am making this a SHORT-TERM BUY. But follow the RSI literally.For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as the streaky S&P, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The economy seems to be recovering, while bond yields are increasing again, sending gold prices down.Not good. Gold bulls can be truly upset. The yellow metal continued its bearish trend last week. As the chart below shows, the price of gold has declined from $1,807 on Monday (Feb. 22) to $1,743 on Friday (Feb. 26).What happened? Well, last week was full of positive economic news. In particular, personal income surged by 10 percent in January, compared to only 0.6-percent rise in the previous month. Meanwhile, consumer spending increased 2.4 percent, following a 0.4-percent decline in December. This means that, on an absolute basis, personal consumption expenditures have almost returned to the pre- pandemic level, as the chart below shows.Additionally, durable goods orders jumped by 3.4 percent in January versus a 1.2-percent increase one month earlier. Moreover, initial jobless claims declined from 841,000 to 730,000 in the week ending February 20, as the chart below shows. It means that the economic situation is improving, partially thanks to the December fiscal stimulus.And, on Saturday (Feb. 27), the House of Representatives passed Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Although the bill has yet to be approved by the Senate, the move by the House brings us one step closer to its implementation. Although the additional fiscal stimulus may overheat the economy and turn out to be positive for gold prices in the long-term, the strengthened prospects of higher government expenditures can revive the optimism in the financial markets, negatively affecting the safe-haven assets such as gold .Finally, on Saturday, the FDA authorized Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine against COVID-19. This decision expands the availability of vaccines, which brings us closer to the end of the epidemic in the U.S. and offers hope for a faster economic recovery. The new vaccine is highly effective (it provides 85-percent protection against severe COVID-19 28 days after vaccination) and most importantly, requires only one dose, which facilitates efficient distribution. So, the approval of another vaccine is rather bad news for gold and could add to the metal’s problems in the near future.However, the most important development from the last week was the jump in the bond yields . As the chart below shows, after a short stabilization in the first half of the week, the yields on the 10-year Treasuries indexed by inflation rose from -0.79 to -0.60 percent on Thursday (Feb. 25). This surge in the real interest rates is negative for the price of gold.Implications for GoldWhat does this all mean for the price of gold? Well, the increase in the bond yields is clearly bad for the yellow metal. Although they have partially risen to strengthened inflation expectations, the real interest rates have also soared. It means that investors expect wider fiscal deficits and expanding vaccination to accelerate inflation only partially, but in a large part, it will speed up real economic growth. This is a huge problem for gold, as real interest rates are a key driver of gold prices.An additional issue is that the expectations of higher economic growth and inflation create accompanying expectations for the Fed to tighten its monetary policy and hike the federal funds rate , which exerts downward pressure on gold prices.This is what we were afraid of at the beginning of the year. We noted that the real interest rates were so low that the next move could be up. Importantly, there is further room for upward trajectory, as the real interest rates are still importantly below the pre-pandemic level.However, we wouldn’t bet on the return to the levels seen last year. After all, interest rates didn’t return to the pre-crisis level after the Great Recession , so it’s unlikely that they will do it now. Additionally, investors should remember that the U.S. government is now so heavily indebted that if Treasury yields continue to increase, the Fed would have to intervene. A failure to do so would mean that the interest expenses would grow too much, creating serious problems for the Treasury. So, the current bearish trend in gold may not last forever – although it may still take some time.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Stocks thoroughly rebounded yesterday, and corporate credit markets did even better. These are optimistic signs as the shape of the correction has been decided – again, as shallow, less than 5% one. Long-termTreasuries are no longer in a free fall, volalility has retreated back to the low 20s, and the put/call ratio swung back towards the bottom of its recent range.Technology has rebounded as well, and the microrotations in the stock market keep being the haollmark of stock bull‘s health, and the risk-on (high beta) sectors and segments such as financials, semiconductors, or capex (capital expenditure such as construction and engineering) - and airlines are catching breath too.Such was the sectoral themes likely to do well that I mentioned yesterday:(…) That‘s the same about any high beta sector or stock such as financials – these tend to do well in rising rates environments. Regardless of any coming stabilization / retreat in long-term Treasury yields, it‘s my view that we‘re going to have to get used to rising spreads such as 2y over 10y as the long end still steepens. The markets and especially commodities aren‘t buying Fed‘s nonchalant attitude towards inflation. Stocks have felt the tremors, and will keep rising regardless, as it has been historically much higher rates that have caused serious issues (think 4% in 10y Treasuries).In such an environment, the defensives with low volatility and good earnings are getting left behind, as it‘s the top earners in growth, and very risk-on cyclicals that do best. They would be taking the baton from each other, as (micro)rotations mark the stock market bull health – and once tech big names join again, new highs would arrive. Then, the $1.9T stimulus has made it past the House, involves nice stimulus checks, and speculation about an upcoming infrastructure bill remains. Coupled with the avalanche of new Fed money, this is going into the real economy, not sitting on banks‘ balance sheets – and now, the banks will have more incentive to lend out. Margin debt isn‘t contracting, but global liquidity hasn‘t gone pretty much anywhere in February. Coupled with the short-term dollar moves, this is hurting emerging markets more than the U.S. - and based on the global liquidity metrics alone, the S&P 500 is oversold right now – that‘s without the stimulus package. It‘s my view that we‘re experiencing ... not a reversal of fortunes. … this remains one of the dips to be bought in my view.All right, we‘re seeing a rebound in progress, on the way to new highs – but what about the embattled gold? Its seasonality component was „slated“ to help the bulls in Feb, and the king of metals instead succumbed to nominal yields pressure. Would the Mar historically negative slant be likewise invalidated – and again precisely for the reason called long-dated Treasuries?Regardless of the immensely positive fundamentals behind the precious metals (including real rates, the true determinant, little changed and at -1%), it has thus far been commodities and Bitcoin who rose and held on to their gains since the 2H 2020. Please remember the big picture chart about commodities and precious metals taking turns in rising that I presented on Feb 17. The bullish case for gold (let alone silver) isn‘t lost – merely thoroughly questioned these weeks of sordid $HUI:$GOLD underperformance.Are we seeing signs of decreasing financial asset price inflation – or an accelerating one? It‘s the inflation and inflation expectations that are weighed against the nominal rates trajectory. As the rate of inflation accelerates, rising nominal rates would bite the yellow metal less – and there is no denying that the risk of inflation is running as high as can be.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookSo far, so (very) good in stocks – volume is lagging but the Force index still flipped positive, indication that at worst, we‘re likely to muddle through in a sideways to higher trading pattern over the nearest days.Credit MarketsAfter a worrying move on Friday, high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) are once again assuming leadership, and I see this chart as the one with more bullish implications for the coming days than the S&P 500 alone. That‘s the dynamic I am looking for in a good run.Both leading credit market ratios – high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) and investment grade corporate bonds to longer-dated ones (LQD:IEI) – are looking to get back in closer sync than has been the case in 2021 thus far. It would take time, but would prove that the stock market can still keep on rising when faced with even higher nominal rates than we saw thus far.TechnologyTechnology (XLK ETF) clearly reversed, and while the volume isn‘t convincing on a standalone basis, coupled with semiconductors (XSD ETF) and other value stocks performance, it‘s encouraging enough to treat any significant correction calls heard elsewhere, as again plain wrong and premature, for the full picture view didn‘t support such calls in the first place, and you know what is being said about every broken clock being right twice a day…Having said so, let‘s turn to precious metals, which offered more than a few bullish signs way earlier in Feb. Based on the evolving charts and gold‘s failure to gain credible traction, I was at least able to time most of the downside before it happened – such as last week. Still, there has been little bullish that could be said about the PMs complex, as encouraging signs emerged only to be gone shortly. So, where do we stand at the moment?Gold and Copper to Oil RatioRising TLT rates are turning a corner, but the yellow metal is staying at the strong volume profile support zone that marks the April-May consolidation zone. Earlier today, gold cut all the way to its lower end (that‘s low $1,700s) before rebounding. The danger zone hasn‘t been cleared in the least yet, but the signs of silver reversing once again from a double test of $26, is as encouraging as copper rising again, and oil not tanking.The copper to oil ratio whose long-term perspective I featured yesterday, is making a clear turn on the daily chart. Coupled with the TLT stabilization, and the dollar trading with relatively little correlation to gold these days, the table is set for a short-term rebound in the metals. How far would these take the sector? The numerous bears would have you believe that not too far & that another downleg to ridiculously low values is at hand, but I am not convinced and prefer reading the tape instead. Yes, even in the mostly bearish PMs chart setups where nothing bullish has stuck for longer than several day over the past weeks. I repeat that the $1.9T stimulus bill (and infrastructure bill, even slavery reparations if we get that far really) hasn‘t been truly factored in by the markets – and yesterday‘s S&P 500 action proves that.Silver and MinersSilver keeps consolidating in a bullish pattern well above $26 still (not that it would be the line in the sand though), and when the silver miners (SIL ETF) start leading again, a new silver upleg would be born. For now, these are still mirroring the weak gold miners‘ performance, which is free from bullish signals for the yellow metal still. The gold sector isn‘t yet ready to run, plain and simple.SummaryStock bulls are on a solid recovery path, and new all time highs are again closer in sight. Crucially, the corporate credit markets and S&P 500 sectoral performance confirm, and once emerging markets join (the dollar weakens again), more fuel to the rally would be available.Gold remains precariously perched, yet isn‘t breaking down – the bull run off last spring‘s consolidation remains intact – regardless of the short-term gloom and doom. I see the metals as likely to recover next as the Treasury yields stop biting. Restating the obvious, gold is far from out of the woods.

Stocks gave up some of Monday‘s strong gains, but I find it little concerning in the sub-3,900 pre-breakout meandering. It‘s about time, and a play on the tech sector to participate meaningfully in the coming rally (or at least not to stand in the way again). Talking obstacles, what about today‘s non-farm employment change, before the really key Fri‘s release? A bad number makes it less likely for market participants to bet on the Fed raising rates soon – but frankly, I don‘t understand where this hawkish sentiment is coming from, now when we‘re not at even talking taper. Raising rates in the current shape of the recovery, where we have commodities and financial asset prices rising, and that‘s about it? No, the current economic recovery isn‘t strong enough to entertain that thought. The need for stimulus asap is obvious. Thus, prior trends in the commodities and currency arenas are likely to continue, and not even the current long-term Treasuries stabilization can prevent the greenback from falling more than temporarily.Just as I wrote yesterday about stocks:(…) All right, we‘re seeing a rebound in progress, on the way to new highs.Gold scored modest gains yesterday, but these aren‘t enough to flip its short-term outlook bullish. Yes, it‘s sitting within the strong support zone (with another one over $40 further lower), and it isn‘t breaking down. It could actually stage a rebound precisely off this support zone next, as sharp rallies are born during the opposite sentiment clearly prevailing, which is what we have in gold now.Silver remains relatively solid, and commodities aren‘t breaking down. We have a month historically strong for copper, and I talked both yesterday and Monday what that means for the copper to oil ratio – and its relationship to gold, given the very accomodative monetary policy without real end in sight. This is then checked against nominal rates matching up against inflation, inflation expectations.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsYesterday‘s downswing didn‘t attract much volume, making it a short-term hesitation That‘s the meandering, the search for direction just below the 3,900 mark that I had been tweeting about yesterday. If you look at the equal weighted S&P 500 chart (RSP ETF), it‘s clear that new highs are still a little off given the sectoral balance of power.The market breadth indicators reflect the daily indecisiveness fittingly. While not worrying in themselves, they‘re showing that Monday‘s session wasn‘t the beginning of an endless bullish streak. Rather, it‘s just a part of the bullish turn that would over time prevail more convincingly.Credit MarketsThe key leading credit market ratio – high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) – is slightly leaning bullish here. And that‘s good given the talk of bubble bursting, significant correction just ahead (started) – that‘s what I am looking for in uncertain times. Ideally though, such a bond market leadership should last a bit longer than one day, to lend it more credibility.TechnologyTechnology (XLK ETF) once again reversed to the downside, or so the chart says. While high, the volume isn‘t trustworthy – it doesn‘t stand comparison to the visually similar early Sep pattern, which was followed by a break to new lows in the latter half of the month. Then, as the overlaid S&P 500 (black line) shows, high beta pockets and value sectors have assumed leadership, powering the S&P 500 advance.DollarThe USD index is keeping close to the 91 mark, and yesterday‘s candle reveals that the potential upside isn‘t probably all that great. This is consistent with the dollar being in a bear market, sliding to new lows in 2021 with likelihood bordering on certainty. Plain and simple, it‘ll be on the defensive regardless of where long-term rates go.Gold and SilverGold had a good chance to rebound higher throughout this week, but didn‘t – given its Monday‘s performance, I had some reservations even as the support zone held, and upswing could easily follow – especially given the positive copper to oil ratio‘s move, or TLT not putting fresh pressure. But that‘s not happening in today‘s pre-market session, as the support‘s lower border is being tested again.Silver keeps holding the $26 level, and still trades at the 50-day moving average. While it‘s lagging behind both platinum and copper, its chart is (unlike gold‘s) bullish. Remember, the most bullish thing prices can do, is to rise. Not to rebound and fizzle out, only to rebound and fizzle out again, the way we see in gold as it keeps offering both bearish and bullish signs.OilOil keeps trading in a bullish fashion, and the 3-day long correction hasn‘t broken even Feb local lows yet. While we‘re for increased volatility in here, the uptrend remains strong, and volume currently doesn‘t support a deep correction theory. Just look how little have the retreating daily indicators achieved when it comes to the underlying price move? That‘s a reflection of a strong uptrend, which would be however best advised to resume sooner rather than later so as not to lose the technical advantage.SummaryStock bulls are on a recovery path, and new all time highs are basically a question of when the tech would step up to the plate again. Despite today‘s premarket weakness reaching well below the 3,870 level, the S&P 500 internals and credit markets performance (including foreign bonds) doesn‘t indicate that much downside potential currently. This correction‘s shape is largely in, and I mean the price downside – patience though will be needed before seeing new highs.Gold remains stuck in its support zone, unable to rally, not breaking down. The copper advantage of yesterday is lost for today, but seeing it and silver recover would be the most likely outcome once the immediate threat of rising Treasury yields retreats more noticeably. Gold is far from out of the woods, and flirting with the support level without a convincing rebound, is dangerous to the bulls.

Scary selling yesterday? See how little the downswing has achieved technically, check out the other characteristics, and you‘ll probably reach the same conclusion I did. It‘s still about the tech getting its act together while much of the rest of the market is doing quite fine.The credit market confirm, as is obvious from the HYG:SHY ratio chart I‘m showing you. True, long-term Treasuries are under pressure, but I wrote on Monday that not even considerably higher rates would break the bulls‘ back. The dollar isn‘t getting far, and given tomorrow‘s non-farm payrolls, which are expected to be rather bad… Check instead another chart I am featuring today, and that‘s volatility – this correction appears in its latter stages as the crash callers „now, this quarter, whenever because it‘s allegedly overdue“, will be again surprised and backtracking in tone once the market gets what it wants: more liquidity.That was stocks, what about gold? No shortage of gloomy charts there, accompanied by various calls for a local bottom. The most bullish one (me included, talks about a possible bottom being made here, with the $1,700 to $1,690 zone able to stop the downside. I am though also raising the lower border of the Apr-May 2020 consolidation, which is around $1,670, as an even stronger support (over $40 lower than the above one) than the volume profile based one we‘re still at currently – and based on different tools, I am far from alone. The doomsayers‘ scary clickbaitish targets of $1,500 or $1,350 are in the minority, and about as helpful as calls for $100 silver before years‘ end. As I always say, let‘s be realistic, honest, and act with real integrity. People deserve better than to be played around through fear or greed.Silver remains in a solid uptrend, and so does platinum. Regardless of today‘s premarket downswing taking copper over 4% down as we speak, commodities are happily running higher in the face of „no inflation here, move along“ calls. How far is the Fed announcing yield curve control, or at least a twist program? Markets crave more intervention, and those calling for rate hikes to materialize soon, are landing with egg on their faces – mark my words, the Fed is going to stay accommodative longer than generally anticipated – have we learned nothing from the Yellen Fed?Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsYesterday‘s downswing didn‘t attract outstanding volume, and didn‘t overcome Fri‘s one. Regardless of the visit to the lower border of recent trading range, the bears would have to become more active to flip this chart bearish really.Credit MarketsThe key leading credit market ratio – high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) – hasn‘t really broken down yesterday. Just a consolidation that has an inverse head and shoulders shape on top. Of course, until the neckline is broken, there are no bullish implications, but I am looking for higher HYG:SHY values regardless.VolatilityYesterday‘s volatility – and put/call readings too – are very tame, and that detracts from the credibility of a significant downswing starting here considerably.TechnologyTechnology (XLK ETF) compared to the value stocks (VTV ETF) shows clearly once again the performance difference – tech still taking time and basing, while value sectors and high-beta segments keep doing largely fine. This view isn‘t one that‘s associated with the onset of real corrections – but with waiting for the tech to start behaving for new highs to be attainable once again.Gold and SilverGold still has a good chance to rebound higher, even though it missed yesterday‘s opportunity that would have resulted in a nice hammer candlestick. Nevermind, we have to live with what we have – and the support is still unbroken, not ruling out an upswing in the least. Yes, regardless of the deeply negative Force index which really wasted each prior opportunity to turn positive this winter. The metals would do well to get used to living with higher nominal rates really, when the real rates are little changed. Silver keeps doing much better, which is little surprising given the economic recovery, leading indicators not weakening, manufacturing activity doing fine – it‘s a versatile metal, both industrial and monetary after all. Compare how little has its Force index declined vs. gold – this is rather a bullish chart, unlike gold still searching for direction (i.e. without an established uptrend).CopperLet‘s compare the red metal (perched high, digesting steep Feb gains) to platinum and silver. I‘m featuring copper as the key determinant for precious metals, also given the positive Mar seasonality. The above chart fittingly illustrates the bull market‘s strength – and the waiting on gold to join.SummaryStock bulls have to once again take the trip to the 3,900 mark, and when that happens, depends on the tech the most. The S&P 500 internals and credit market performance remains sound, and new highs are a question of time (and stimulus).Gold remains stuck in its support zone, unable to rally, not breaking down. While copper is retreating today, the technical odds favor a rebound off this support. Once that happens, it would be though still too early to call for the new gold bull upleg to resume – much more would need to happen, such as the miners doing really well, and so on. But we‘ll get there.

Gold remains in a bearish trend as economic confidence has improved, however, inflation can change all that around.The chart presenting gold prices in 2021 doesn’t look too encouraging. The yellow metal continued its bearish trend at the turn of February and March. So, as one can see, the price of gold has declined from $1,943 on January 4 to $1,711 on Wednesday (Mar. 3) This means a drop of 232 bucks, or 12 percent since the beginning of the year.What is happening in the gold market? I would like to blame the jittering bond market and increasing bond yields , but the uncomfortable truth is that the yellow metal has slid in the past few days despite the downward correction in the bond yields. If you don’t believe, take a look at the chart below. This is an important bearish signal, given how closely gold is usually linked to the real interest rates .So, it seems that there are more factors at work than just the bond yields. One of them is the recent modest strengthening of the greenback , probably amid rising U.S. interest rates and ECB officials’ remarks about possible expansion of the ECB’s accommodative stance if the selloff in the bond market continues.Another piece of bearish news for the gold market is that President Joe Biden struck a last-minute stimulus deal with Democratic Senators that narrows the income eligibility for the next round of $1,400 stimulus checks. It means that the upcoming fiscal stimulus will be lower than previously expected, negatively affecting inflation expectations and, thus, the demand for gold as an inflation hedge .Lastly, I have to mention the high level of confidence in the economy. Indeed, the recent rise in the bond yields may just be a sign of more optimism about the economic recovery from the pandemic recession . Hence, despite all the economic problems the U.S. will have to face – mainly the huge indebtedness or actually the debt-trap – investors have decided to not pay too much attention to the elephants in the room. As the chart below shows, the credit spread (ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread), which is a useful measure of economic confidence, has returned to the pre-pandemic level, indicating a strong belief in the state of the economy. This is, of course, bad for safe-haven assets such as gold.Implications for GoldWhat does this all mean for gold prices? Well, from the long-term perspective, the recent slide to almost $1,700 could just be noise in the marketplace. But gold’s disappointing performance is really disturbing given the seemingly perfect environment for the precious metals . After all, we live in a world of negative interest rates , a weak U.S. dollar, rising fiscal deficits and public debt , soaring money supply and unprecedented dovish monetary and fiscal policies . So, the bearish trend may be more lasting, as market sentiment is still negative. Investors usually turn to gold, a great portfolio diversifier and a safe haven , when other investment are falling. But the worst is already behind us, the economy has already bottomed out, so confidence in the economy is now high, and equities are rising.Having said that, the recent jump in the bond yields also means rising inflation expectations . Indeed, as the chart below shows, they have already surpassed the levels seen before the outbreak of the pandemic .Actually, the 5-year breakeven inflation rate has reached 2.45 percent, the highest level since the midst of the Great Recession . So, in some part, investors are selling bonds, as they are preparing for an reflation environment marked by higher inflation . At some point, if the fear of inflation strengthens, then economic confidence will waver, and investors could again turn toward gold.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Here are the facts why there is a higher likelihood for Silver prices to advance:A lot of news items attract buyers. Silver is in the limelight.Physical Silver prices trade up to 30% over the spot price.We had a bullish twelve-month period for Silver prices. Consequently, describing the first leg of a trend. With a high probability of two more legs to be following.We see money inflow into the precious metal sector as a whole. These are safe haven seeking investments due to the threat of hyperinflation caused by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus.Possible highest ever physical delivery months within this year for Silver futures traded on the COMEX exchange.Daily Chart of Silver in US-Dollar, Good support:Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 5th, 2021.Looking at this sideways range, we find ample support of prices within the range right now as a healthy spot to acquire physical Silver. We pointed out that last time around prices touched the simple 200 moving average, Silver prices exploded. We expect a similar scenario now. There is a likelihood that prices might already take off in the upcoming week here from the secondary volume analysis support point (POC=point of control). These stacked up edges of support provide for tighter stops and great risk-reward ratios.  Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Stacking Odds:Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 5th, 2021.A great way timing your Silver entry is also looking at inter-market relationships. Once Gold, the sector leader, will find its support, Silver will follow. This technique might help distinguish if Silver will be bouncing from primary or secondary POC in the upcoming week (as indicated in the first chart of this article).The monthly chart above shows that Gold has entered a prime buy zone between US$1,650 and US$1,700. Both the Fibonacci retracement and the fractal volume analysis demand zone substantiate that fact.Gold in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Silver, don’t be fooled:Gold in US Dollar, monthly chart as of March 5th, 2021.Another view at Gold reveals that it bounced strongly last time it touched its simple 20 months moving average. It is a confirmation that we might be able to temporarily bottom here and support a possible Silver up move. In such a case Silver might be temporarily topping by mid-August to mid-September this year. At that time, Silver will be ripe for partial profit taking to reduce long-term risk by using our quad exit strategy.Our thinking is all programmed for a hundred years to benchmark against dollars. I am sure you have noticed your groceries to be more expensive now or better said, everything being more expensive. Maybe thinking the dollar is worth less is a more somber way of perceiving the change. Benchmarking against Silver or Gold or even Bitcoin might be a more accurate measure of value perception. Average monthly wages in Venezuela representing a value of US$6 are an excellent example of what hyperinflation can look like.If you are holding your wealth in US-Dollars only, you are at extreme risk. We are not too specific on Silver or Gold or mining companies or Bitcoin or land, but we are risk averse. We urge you to look critically at fiat currency holdings. The risk/reward-ratio of Silver at this time is excellent. Usable as a hedge against this risk!Silver, don’t be fooled:When you hear from many various sources that Silver “is the thing to buy,” it feels like “too good to be true.” Sound fundamental analysis shows that holding physical Silver is, in fact, a prudent course of action. Silver prices are manipulated. They do not reflect true value. Physical prices trading much higher than the spot price. Once truth can’t be suppressed anymore, we see a fair likelihood for Silver prices to advance rapidly. Our conservative targets for the Silver market point at annual highs near Labor Day. At that point we aim to take partial profits.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 5th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Powell gave a wait-and-see answer to my yesterday‘s rhetorical question about the bears just starting out, indeed. The S&P 500 plunged, breaking far outside the Bollinger Bands confines, illustrating the extraordinary nature of the move. Rebound would be perfectly natural here (and we‘re getting one as we speak) – but will it be more than a dead cat bounce?Stocks partially recovered from last Friday‘s intraday plunge, and good news about the stimulus clearing House followed after the market close – stock bulls took the opportunity, and Monday‘s session gave signs that the worst is over. Tuesday‘s move partially negated that, but even after Wednesday, the short-term case was undecided (even as tech kept acting relatively weak).Yesterday‘s session though gives the short-term advantage to the bears, and that‘s because of the weak performance I see in other stock market indices and bonds. The Russell 2000 got under pressure, negating what by yesterday still looked like a shallow correction there. So did the emerging markets and their bonds. More downside can materialize either suddenly or slowly over the coming say 1-2 weeks. It depends on the tech and its heavyweight names, where these find support. Corporate credit markets aren‘t weakening as dramatically though – as you‘ll see illustrated later on, both high yield corporate bonds and the HYG:SHY ratio are holding up much better than stocks. While that‘s bullish, the S&P 500 apparently hasn‘t yet learned to live with higher rates – let alone considerably higher ones.The key element playing the markets now, is the Fed‘s approach to inflation, rising long-term Treasuries in the face of central bank inaction and inflation denialism, which translates into the dollar taking the turn higher courtesy of the stresses induced across many asset classes. I asked yesterday:(...) How far is the Fed announcing yield curve control, or at least a twist program? Markets crave more intervention, and those calling for rate hikes to materialize soon, are landing with egg on their faces – mark my words, the Fed is going to stay accommodative longer than generally anticipated – have we learned nothing from the Yellen Fed?The ostrich pose on inflation isn‘t helping – it‘s sending Treasuries down, turning much of the rest red. Does the Fed want to see the market forcing some kind of answer / action the way it did in Dec 2018? The Fed is risking such a development now, this time through inaction, and not thanks to monetary tightening as back then.While some argue that inflation just brings a Fed rate hike closer, I really doubt that this option is treated seriously inside the Eccles building. It would be the right choice if you were serious about fighting inflation before it takes root – but in whose interest is that? Just look at the transitory statements, Fed official beliefs that to see it hit even 3% would be extraordinary, and you understand that their models understating it considerably in the first place, aren‘t even sending them the correct, magnitudinal signals.I see it as more probable that they would just try to suppress its symptoms, and succumb to the markets even more vocally demanding some action, by going the twist route. In effect, they would be then fighting the war on two fronts, as I explained in the middle of Feb already.Food inflation running hot, commodities on fire, and gold is going nowhere still. The bears are vocal, and I‘ve laid down a realistic game plan yesterday, discussing the gold support levels and perspectives. If you‘re disappointed that gold isn‘t doing as well as commodities, consider the mid-Feb described cascading inflation process as it devours more and more of the financial landscape – we still have a weak job market that doesn‘t contribute to the inflationary pressures, relegating the true, undeniable inflation to the 2022-3 timeframe.Let‘s keep the big picture – gold is in a secular bull market that started in 2018 (if not in late 2015), and what we‘re seeing since the Aug 2020 top, is the soft patch I called. The name of the game now, is where the downside stops – I am not capitulating to (hundreds dollars) lower numbers below $1,650 on a sustainable basis. The new precious metals upleg is a question of time even though the waiting is getting longer than comfortable for many, including myself. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsReasonably heavy volume with most of yesterday‘s candle, pushing vigorously to start a new downtrend. Given yesterday‘s move, some kind of retracement is likely today as a minimum, but the bears have the upper hand now.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) haven‘t declined below last week‘s lows, and are still at bullish divergence readings. Will they keep above these? Doing so is essential for the still unfolding S&P 500 correction.High yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) aren‘t as panicky as stocks here, which is more than mildly optimistic.Put/Call Ratio and VolatilityThe put/call ratio is well below the Feb or Jan highs, while the volatility index is much higher relatively to these. While that‘s an opportunity for even more panic, volatily would quickly die down if today‘s S&P 500 upswing sticks. Then, it would be time to evaluate the changes in posture. Either way, this correction appears to have longer to run still.TechnologyTechnology (XLK ETF) compared to the value stocks (VTV ETF) shows where the engine of decline is – and it‘s starting to have an effect on value, high beta plays. Not until tech stabilizes, can the correction be called as really close to over – just check how the equal weighted S&P 500 (RSP ETF) suffers right now.Gold, Silver and MinersAnother bite into the volume profile support zone, and the gold upswing isn‘t here still. Another missed daily opportunity to rebound. The yellow metal is still in a precarious position until it shakes off the rising (nominal, not real) rates albatross.Silver is in a technically stronger position, but signs of deterioration are creeping here too. It‘s painfully obvious when the miners are examined – the silver ones are leading to the downside, and the gold ones, well seniors outperforming juniors isn‘t a sign of strength really. The sky isn‘t definitely clear here.SummaryStock bulls have to once again try to repair the damage, and their success depends on the tech the most. The S&P 500 internals are slightly deteriorating, but the credit market performance remains more solid. New highs remain a question of time (and the stimulus carrot).Gold remains acting weak around the lower border of its support zone, and silver is joining in the deterioration, not to mention the mining indices. The yellow metal is though short-term holding up rather well, when the TLT and USDX pressures are considered.

Stocks sharply reversed intraday, and closed just where they opened the prior Friday. That indicates quite some pressures, quite some searching for direction in this correction that isn‘t over just yet. Stocks have had a great run over the past 4 months, getting a bit ahead of themselves in some aspects such as valuations. Then, grappling with the rising long-term rates did strike.So did inflation fears, especially when looking at commodities. Inflation expectations are rising, but not galloping yet. What to make of the rising rates then? They‘re up for all the good reasons – the economy is growing strongly after the Q4 corona restrictions (I actually expect not the conservative 5% Q1 GDP growth, but over 8% at least) while inflation expectations are lagging behind. In other words, the reflation (of economic growth) is working and hasn‘t turned into inflation (rising or roughly stable inflation expectations while the economy‘s growth is slowing down). We‘re more than a few quarters from that – I fully expect really biting inflation (supported by overheating in the job market) to be an 2022-3 affair. As regards S&P 500 sectors, would you really expect financials and energy do as greatly as they do if the prospects were darkening?So, I am looking for stocks to do rather well as they are absorbing the rising nominal rates. It‘s also about the pace of such move, which has been extraordinary, and left long-term Treasuries trading historically very extended compared to their 50-day moving averages. Thus, they‘re prone to a quick snapback rally over the next 1-2 weeks, which would help the S&P 500 regain even stronger footing. And even plain temporary stabilization of theirs would do the trick.This is taking me directly to gold. We have good odds of long-term rates not pressuring the yellow metal as much as recently, and inflation expectations are also rising (not as well anchored to 2% as the Fed thinks / says). As I‘ll show you in the charts, the signs of decoupling have been already visible for some time, and now became more apparent. And that‘s far from the only suggestion of an upcoming gold upswing that I‘ll bring you today.Just as I was calling out gold as overheated in Aug 2020 and prone to a real soft patch, some signs of internal strength in the precious metals sector were present this Feb already. And now as we have been testing for quite a few days the first support in my game plan, we‘re getting once again close to a bullish formation that I called precisely to a day, and had been banging the bearish gold drum for the following two days, anticipating the downside that followed. Now, that‘s what I call welcome flexibility, extending to accentuated, numerous portfolio calls.And the permabears keep (losing capital through many bullish years in a row in some cases) calling for hundreds bucks more downside after a respite now, not even entertaining the thought that gold bottom might very well not be quarters ahead. It‘s easier to try falsely project own perma stickers onto others. Beware of wolves in ill-fitting sheep clothing. Look at full, proven track records, compare varying perspectives of yesteryear too, and wave off cheap halo effects.It‘s the above dynamic between nominal rates taking a breather, dollar getting back under pressure, commodities continuing their rise and stocks gradually resuming theirs – see the ebbing and flowing that I‘m laying down in the daily analyses on the revamped homepage, and you‘ll get a knack for my timings of local tops or bottoms just the way I did in the early Sep buying climax or in the corona crash.True mastery is in integrating and arguing opposing views with experience and adaptability daily. People are thankfully able to recognize these characteristics on their own – and they have memory too. Who needs to be told what to read and consider by those embracing expertise only to turn against it when the fruits were no longer theirs? Sour grapes. Narrow thinking is one of the dangers of our era replete with empty and shallow shortcuts. Curiosity, ingenuity and diligence are a gift to power mankind – and what you get from financial analysts – forward in a virtuous circle.If gold prices rise from here, they have bounced off support. Simple as that, especially given the accompanying signs presented. There is time to run with the herd, and against the herd – in both bull and bear trends, constantly reevaluating the rationale for a position, unafraid to turn on a dime when justified.Whatever else bullish or bearish I see technically and fundamentally in rates, inflation and dollar among much else, I‘ll be duly reporting and commenting on as always. It‘s the markets‘ discounting mechanism of the future that counts – just as gold cleared the deflationary corona crash in psring 2020, just as it disregarded the tough Fed tone of 2H 2018, just as it sprang vigorously higher in early 2016 stunning bears in all three cases with sharp losses over many months, or just as stocks stopped declining well before economic news got better in April 2020 or March 2009. Make no mistake, the markets consider transitioning to a higher inflation environment already now (the Fed timidly says that reopening will spike it, well, temporarily they say), when inflation expectations are still relatively low, yet peeking higher based on the Fed‘s own data. Such were my Friday‘s words:(…) Let‘s keep the big picture – gold is in a secular bull market that started in 2018 (if not in late 2015), and what we‘re seeing since the Aug 2020 top, is the soft patch I called. The name of the game now, is where the downside stops – I am not capitulating to (hundreds dollars) lower numbers below $1,650 on a sustainable basis. The new precious metals upleg is a question of time even though the waiting is getting longer than comfortable for many, including myself. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsStrong rebound after more downside was rejected, creating a tweezers bottom formation, with long lower knots. This is suggestive of most of the downside being already in. The Feb 25 upswing had a bearish flavor to it, while the Mar 1 one looked more constructive – and Friday‘s one is from the latter category. That doesn‘t mean though this correction won‘t be in the 5% range. The 3,900 zone is critical for the bulls to pass so as to clear the current precarious almost no man‘s land.The market breadth indicators are actually quite resilient given how far this correction has reached. New highs new lows are holding up still very well, yet they too indicate that this correction has further to go in time. While the bullish percent index still remains in the bullish territory, it indicates how far the correction has progressed technically, and that we can‘t declare the bullish spirits as having returned just yet.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) ilustrate this fragility for they haven‘t rebounded as strongly as stocks. This correction doesn‘t appear to be as really over just yet, also given the sectoral picture that I am showing you next.S&P 500 Sectoral LookTech reversed, but higher volume would be welcome to lend the move more credibility. This sector is still the weakest link in the whole S&P 500 rebound, and not until I see the $NYFANG carve out a sustainable bottom (this needn‘t happen at the 200-day moving average really), I can declare this correction as getting close to over. The bullish take on the volume is that the value sector has undergone strong accumulation, as can be readily seen in the equal weight S&P 500 index (RSP ETF). The above chart shows that cyclicals are performing strongly – with industrials (XLI ETF) and energy (XLE ETF) leading the charge as the tech and defensives are trying to stabilize, and the same is true about consumer discretionaries (XLY ETF).Gold‘s Big Picture ViewGold‘s weekly chart shows two different stages in the reaction to rising long-term rates. The first half was characterized by the two tracking each other rather closely, yet since late Dec, the nominal rates pressure has been abating in strength within the mutual relationship. While TLT plunged, gold didn‘t move down as strongly. Real rates are negative, nominal rates rose fast, and inflation expectations have been trending higher painfully slowly, not reflecting the jump in commodities or the key inflation precursor (food price inflation) just yet – these are the factors pressuring gold as the Fed‘s brinkmanship on inflation goes on. Once the Fed moves to bring long-term rates under control through intervention – hello yield curve control or at least twist – then real rates would would be pressured to drop, which would be a lifeline for gold – the real questions now are how far gold is willing to drop before that, and when that Fed move would happen. Needless to add as a side note regarding the still very good economic growth (the expansion is still young), staglation is what gold would really love.Copper and Silver Big Picture ViewThe red metal keeps rising without end in sight, reflecting both the economic recovery and monetary intervention. This is a very bullish chart with strong implications for other commodities and silver too. That‘s the essence of my favorite play in the precious metals – long silver short gold spread, clearly spelled out as more promising than waiting for gold upswing to arrive while the yellow metals‘ bullish signs have been appearing through Feb only to disappear, reappear, and so on.As you can see, silver performance approximates commodity performance better than gold one. And as the economic recovery goes on, it‘s indeed safer to be a silver bull than a gold bull – another of my early Feb utterances.Miners to Gold Big Picture ViewThis gold sectoral ratio made an encouraging rebound last week, but isn‘t internally as strong as it might appear, because the juniors (GDXJ ETF) aren‘t yet outperforming the seniors (GDX ETF), which had been the case in early 2021 and late in Feb as well – right till I sounded the alarm bells on Feb 23-24. This is precisely why I was not bullish in tone at all in the past week, as gold hadn‘t been acting as strongly now as it had been right before the Feb 22 upswing that I called. And I am missing this ingredient at the moment still.SummaryStock bulls stepped in and repaired much of Thursday‘s damage, flipping the balance of power as more even at the moment. While the medium-term factors favor the bulls, this correction is slated to go on still for longer, as all eyes are on tech (big names) as the deciding sector.Gold still remains acting weak around the lower border of its support zone, silver is refusing to decline more, and signs overall favoring a rebound, are appearing. It‘s still a mixed bag though, with especially gold being far from out of the woods yet.

Forget gold and silver for a moment. Do you hear the music? Yes, it’s coming from the mining ETFs club. But how long will the party last?And more importantly, why miners, you may ask? Because miners tend to outperform in the early days of a major rally.After closing only $0.10 below my initial downside target of $31 on Mar. 1 , the GDX ETF could be ripe for an upward revision. Able to ignore much of last week’s chaos, the GDX ETF’s outperformance of gold and silver signals that the tide has likely turned.Please see below:Figure 1To that point, I warned on Mar. 1 that help was on the way:The GDX ETF has garnered historical support at roughly $29.52. The level also coincides with the early-March high, the mid-April low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, a corrective upswing to ~$33/$34 could be the miners’ next move.Furthermore, after alerting subscribers on Mar. 4 – writing that when gold moves to $1,692, we’ll automatically open long positions in the miners – the GDX ETF ended Friday’s (Mar. 5) session up by 3.2% from my initial entry of ~$30.80 - $31. Thus, from here, the GDX ETF has roughly 3.8% to 7.0% upside (as of Friday’s close) before the $33/$34 levels signals that the momentum has run its course.For now, though, positioning for more upside offers a solid risk-reward proposition . Prior to the initial decline, miners were weak relative to gold . However, after outperforming on Mar. 5, their steady hand was a sign of short-term strength. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the size and shape of the current price action actually mirrors what we witnessed back in April.Please see below:Figure 2 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), GDX and Slow Stochastic Oscillator Chart Comparison – 2020For context, I wrote on Mar. 5:Miners stopped their decline practically right in my target area, which I based on the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 2020 highs and lows. Moreover, the proximity of the $31 level corresponds to the 2019 high and the 2016 high. Since so many support levels coincide at the same price (approximately), the latter is likely to be a very strong support. Moreover, the RSI was just close to 30, which corresponded to short-term buying opportunities quite a few times in the past.In addition, a short-term upswing could provide a potential pathway to $35 – as this level also corresponds with the GDX ETF’s late-February high, its monthly declining resistance line and its 50-day moving average. The abundance of resistance levels – combined with the fact that an upswing would further verify the GDX ETF’s breakdown below the neckline of its potential head and shoulders pattern – should keep the upward momentum in check.Over the medium-term, the potential head and shoulders pattern – marked by the shaded green boxes above – also deserves plenty of attention.For context, I wrote previously:Ever since the mid-September breakdown below the 50-day moving average , the GDX ETF was unable to trigger a substantial and lasting move above this MA. The times when the GDX was able to move above it were also the times when the biggest short-term declines started.(…)The most recent move higher only made the similarity of this shoulder portion of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern to the left shoulder (figure 2 - both marked with green) bigger. This means that when the GDX breaks below the neck level of the pattern in a decisive way, the implications are likely to be extremely bearish for the next several weeks or months.Due to the uncanny similarity between the two green rectangles, I decided to check what happens if this mirror-similarity continues. I used purple, dashed lines for that. There were two important short-term price swings in April 2020 – one shows the size of the correction and one is a near-vertical move higher.Copying these price moves (purple lines) to the current situation, we get a scenario in which GDX (mining stocks) moves to about $31 and then comes back up to about $34. This would be in perfect tune with what I wrote previously. After breaking below the head-and-shoulders pattern, gold miners would then be likely to verify this breakdown by moving back up to the neck level of the pattern. Then, we would likely see another powerful slide – perhaps to at least $24.This is especially the case, since silver and mining stocks tend to decline particularly strongly if the stock market is declining as well. And while the exact timing of the market’s slide is not 100% clear, stocks’ day of reckoning is coming . And it might be very, very close.As I explained previously, based on the similarities to the 1929 and 2008 declines, it could be the case that the precious metals sector declines for about 3 months after the general stock market tops. And it seems that we won’t have to wait long for the latter. In fact, the next big move lower in stocks might already be underway, as the mid-Feb. 2021 top could have been the final medium-term top.In conclusion, the gold miners should continue to glisten as oversold conditions buoy them back to the $33-$35 range. Due to the GDX ETF’s recent strength, combined with gold rallying off of the lows on Mar. 5, the PMs could enjoy a profitable one-week (or so) party. However, with the celebration likely to be short-lived, it’s important to keep things in perspective. While this week’s performance may elicit superficial confidence, medium-term clouds have already formed. As a result, positioning for an extended rally offers more risk than reward.(We normally include the "Letters to the Editor" section in the full version of Gold & Silver Trading Alerts only, but today I decided to include it also in this free version of the full (about 10x bigger than what you just read) analysis, so that you get the idea of how this part of the analysis looks like. It might be quite informative too. Enjoy:)Letters to the EditorQ: Could you update your thoughts regarding physical [gold and silver] for those looking to acquire additional positions - specifically, what do you think premiums and availability are going to look like when/if spot goes a $100 or $200 down from here? By way of example, I bought some U.S. gold buffaloes at $1854 spot at $1954. Those same coins at $1710 spot are still around $1930, if there are any to be found.A: It’s a tough call, because the premium values don’t follow the technical patterns. Still, based on the analogy to situations that seem similar to what we saw recently, it seems that we can indeed say something about the likely physical values close to the likely $1,450 bottom.Figure 43 - Source: didthesystemcollapse.orgThe above chart shows the eBay premium for 1 oz Gold American Eagle coins over the spot gold price.In April 2020, the premium spiked at about 14%. It was likely even higher in March (we don’t have the direct data), but the volatility back then was bigger than it is right now, so it seems that the current premium and the April 2020 premium values are a better proxy for the future bottoming premiums than the March 2020 bottom premium would be. If the volatility increases, one could see the premium at about 15% or so.With gold at about $1,450, the above-mentioned information means Gold American Eagle coins can cost about $1,670.Still, since gold futures prices seem more predictable than the prices of bullion coins, I’d focus on the former even while timing the purchase of the latter.Moreover, please note that I’m planning to focus on buying mining stocks close to the bottom and move to metals only later. The reason is that miners tend to outperform in the early days of a major rally (just like they did in the first quarter of 2016). The fact that the premium is likely to be high when gold bottoms in a volatile manner is yet another reason for the above. When switching from mining stocks to physical holdings several weeks or months later, one might be buying at a smaller premium over the spot, and also after having gained more on miners than on the metals. Of course, the above is just my opinion, and you can purchase whatever you want – after all, it’s your capital and your investment decisions.Q: Please note that I am glad to see gold moving downwards but I am a little confused – the trading report I just received recommends selling at 1690ish but the mailing previously said 1450ish - please see attached.Could you please investigate and advise.A: If anything in the Gold & Silver Trading Alerts seems confusing, please refer to the “Summary”, the trading/investment positions, and the “Overview of the Upcoming Part of the Decline” sections for clarification. In this case, we exited the remaining short positions when gold hit $1,693 and almost immediately entered long ones (when gold hit $1,692). We now have long positions in the mining stocks with the plan to exit them in a week or so, and re-enter short positions then, because the next big move is likely to be to the downside (perhaps as low as $1,450 or so). Also, the above is just my opinion, not a recommendation or investment advice.Q: Hi P.R., thanks for the advice on this trend, it’s been an amazing trade.As I’m trading on XAUUSD, are you also able to advise the targets for a gold long entry,or should I wait for the final bottom before opening any longs?A: I’m very happy that you’re making profits thanks to my analyses. While I think that the very short-term (for the next 5 trading days or so) outlook for gold, silver and mining stocks is bullish, I think the targets are more predictable for mining stocks than they are for gold and – especially – silver. Still, this time, the short-term upside target for gold is also relatively clear – at about $1,770. That’s why I put the $1,758 in the “For-your-information target” for gold in the “Summary” section below.Q: Are we looking for the short-term upside move to be 1-5 weeks before the final decline into the 1350-1500 zone? I'm a little unsure of the timing you're laying out.A: I’m looking for the short-term upswing to take place between 1 and 3 weeks – that’s the part of the “Overview of the Upcoming Part of the Decline” section about it:It seems to me that the initial bottom has either just formed or is about to form with gold falling to roughly $1,670 - $1,680, likely this week.I expect the rebound to take place during the next 1-3 weeks.After the rebound (perhaps to $33 - $34 in the GDX), I plan to get back in with the short position in the mining stocks.In my opinion it’s most likely that this counter-trend rally will take about 1 – 1.5 weeks. Then, I think that the decline to about $1,450 in gold will start.Q: Thank you for sending out the Alert # 2 with the new changes in the Gold and Silver trades today. This is necessary, so please send out the alert once you enter back to the short positions, please.A: I’m happy that you enjoyed this intraday Alert. I will indeed send you – my subscribers – an intraday confirmation that the long positions were closed and when we enter new short positions. Still, please note that we already have binding profit-take exit prices in place, which means that when prices move to the target levels (e.g., GDX to $33.92), the long positions should be automatically closed, and profits should be taken off the table – even without an additional confirmation from me (it takes time for me to write and send the message and then some time usually passes before one is able to act on my message).Q: You have informed us to make the move when the Gold price “REACHES” $1693.00. My question is; Does the word “Reach” mean when the price touches that point, if only for a moment, or does “Reach” mean when it closes the day at or below $1693.00?Thank you for your response to this question.A: “Reaching” a price means the same thing as “touching” the price or “moving to” the price. This means moving to this price level on an intraday basis – even for just one tick . If I mean closing prices, I will specifically describe them as such.For instance, I currently have binding exit positions for the current long position in the mining stocks – and these are exactly the price levels that I have put in my brokerage account as a limit sell order.Q: Please comment on the Hindenburg Omen for stocks:Figure 44 - Source: RefinitivA: Thanks. The Hindenburg omen is not one of the most reliable indicators - even on the above chart, it’s clear that most of the signals were not followed by declines. Please note how many fake initial signals there were before stocks finally declined in 2019 or 2020. There are many other reasons to think that stocks are going to move much lower, though. In the very short-term they could still move higher, but this move could be fake and could turn out to be the right shoulder of the head-and-shoulders top formation.Q: 1) for shorter-term trades such as the potential 10% pop in the GDX, is NUGT better?2) the plan after we re-enter a short trade when the GDX gets to $33/$34 might mean a longer haul before we hit rock bottom . You have mentioned time-scales up to 20 weeks (ish). Due to a longer holding period , would the CFD route be a cheaper route when compared to NUGT? I’m asking in general terms because each provider imposes different fees and I don’t expect you to comment on the fees charged by IG, which is the service I use.I also recognize that NUGT only offers 2 X leverage, whereas CFD’s offer up to five times leverage.Finally, the manner in which you detail the rich tapestry of the economic forces that impact PMs is revealing and educational. I find this all fascinating.I have my own views which can be summed up like this: How many inflationary false-dawns and panics has the bond market had? Ever since 2008, when the FED launched QE, there have been numerous bouts and hissy fits of inflationary expectations that have subsequently sunk like a dodgy soufflé. I think this time is no different and it’s entirely possible the 30-year bond could drop to ZERO. I am in the deflationary camp.How might the 10 year at zero or possibly sub-zero and longer, out on the duration curve to (TLT ETF) dropping to 0.5%, affect the price of gold?Your thoughts as ever, are much appreciatedA: 1) That depends on whether one seeks leverage or not, and how much thereof. Please note that some short-term trades could sometimes become medium-term trades if the market decides to consolidate or move in the other direction before continuing the predicted trend. In this case, non-leveraged instruments are at an advantage over the leveraged ones, because they don’t suffer from the back-and-forth trading as much as the leveraged ones do.If one’s desired exposure to the GDX ETF wouldn’t exceed the cash that one dedicated to trading, then in order to have the same exposure one would simply have half of the capital employed in NUGT (which is 2x leveraged). This way, the exposure would be identical, but the NUGT would imply additional risk of losing more capital if the trade takes much longer than planned and/or if the price moves adversely first.Please note that there is also an additional way to gain leverage (it’s not available for everyone, though) and that is through the use of margin on one’s brokerage account. I’d prefer to use margin for the GDX before aiming to gain leverage through NUGT.In other words, I’d first use more cash for GDX before I’d go into NUGT. If I wanted to have even bigger exposure than the one achieved by employing more capital to GDX, I would then consider using margin, and then I would consider using NUGT if I still wanted to get more leverage.There might be some traders who would seek to combine both for even bigger leverage (buying NUGT on margin), but this is definitely not something that I’d recommend to most people. In fact, it seems that in many cases, sticking to the GDX would be a good way to go.2) I think I already replied to the first part of your question (NUGT vs. CFD) above. Also, for other people reading this reply – please note that CFDs (contracts for difference) are not available in many areas, including the USA and Canada.I’m glad to read that you enjoy reading my explanations of the current situation in the markets (precisely, my opinions on it).Real interest rates are one of the most important drivers for gold (along with the USD Index), so a drop in the 10-year rates to zero or sub-zero levels would likely be very beneficial for the gold prices.Figure 45Also, based on the pace at which the rates have rallied recently, they might be topping here, but… There was no decline in the previous 40 years that was as big as what we saw between 2018 and 2020. Consequently, the corrective upswing might be bigger as well. Also, the above chart is not necessarily the scale that is big enough to make very long-term conclusions.Figure 46Over the past centuries, whenever the rates fell very low, they then rallied back up with vengeance. After WW2, it theoretically would have been a “good idea” to keep stimulating the economy with low rates – and yet, they soared. Right now, the monetary authorities strive to be very dovish and keep pumping liquidity into the system, and yet the rates are rallying anyway.So, while the analogy to the previous years – or the past few decades – suggests that the rally in the rates might be over or close to being over, the very long-term chart suggests otherwise.To make the situation even more complicated, if the stock market has already topped in February, and we have already entered the Kondratiev winter cycle, it means that we can theoretically expect the rates to fall, then rise in a credit crunch, and then fall much lower.All in all, the outlook for the interest rates is anything but simple and clear. Perhaps what we see right now already IS the credit crunch and the 10-year rates are on their way to above 2% - after all, they used to return above their 200-day moving average after the previous medium-term declines. It seems to me that the move above 2% in the 10-year rates could correspond with gold’s decline below $1,500.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Gold remains inert to President Biden’s large and hazardous economic plan, and ended up dropping below $1,700.President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus is coming! On Saturday, the U.S. Senate passed the American Rescue Plan on a party-line 50-49 vote. This means that after the House’s vote on Tuesday, Biden could sign the bill into law soon, and those $1,400 payments to most Americans could start to go out as soon as this month.The final bill includes not only $400 billion in checks of $1,400 to most Americans, but also $300 a week in extended unemployment benefits, and $350 billion in aid to state and local governments.The American Rescue Plan would be one of the largest stimulus packages in U.S. history. It would also be one of the most frivolous and superfluous economic programs. There is simply no need for such a large plan. Please take a look at the chart below.As one can see, U.S. personal income has increased during the pandemic, not decreased. Once again, people are now receiving higher income than one year ago. So, Biden’s stimulus with another round of $1,400 checks is not economically or socially justified.Indeed, the U.S. economy is already recovering. On Friday (Mar. 5), we got surprisingly good data about the American labor market , that showed the economy added 379,000 jobs in February, much above expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has slightly decreased further, as one can see in the chart below. Employment is still down by 9.5 million, or 6.2 percent, from the pre-pandemic level seen one year ago, but additional unemployment benefits or plain checks will not help bring people back into employment – in fact, the effect may turn out to be the reverse.Hence, Biden’s fiscal stimulus will bring little benefit to the economy, while significantly expanding the federal debt and risking overheating the economy. Indeed, the plan is estimated to increase the already high public debt (see the chart below) by an additional ten percentage points as a share of GDP .Implications for GoldWhat does this all mean for gold prices? From the fundamental point of view, Biden’s plan should be positive for the yellow metal. This is because it can increase inflation in the long-run, if people finally decide to spend all the money they got from Uncle Sam. It will not happen in the immediate future, as households will initially save the received payments, and some of them will repay their debts, but they are likely to spend more this year, to compensate for curbed consumption in 2020.However, whether Biden’s plan turns out inflationary or not, it will expand the already mammoth public debt. It should weaken the position of the greenback and increase the odds for a debt crisis or paying out this debt through inflation or financial repression. The higher the debt, the more difficult it will be for the Fed to normalize interest rates (welcome to the debt trap , my friends). All these factors should support gold prices in the long run.However, gold remains deaf to Biden’s disharmonious symphony. Indeed, as the chart below shows, the yellow metal has declined below the important level of $1,700 last week. It seems that the fiscal stimulus (together with the rollout of vaccinations and the economic recovery) has so far strengthened the risk appetite among investors who don’t focus on long-term consequences of the fiscal stimulus.This may change one day, but the sentiment in the gold market is clearly negative right now, and the fundamentals are more positive. The fundamentals may come to the fore in the end. However, gold may struggle further, especially if real interest rates go up again.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Stocks spiked higher, but not before going sideways to down prior on the day. And the close to the session hasn‘t been convincing either – does it count as a reversal? In my view, we haven‘t seen one yesterday really, regardless of this correction not being over just yet. There are still some cracks I tweeted yesterday about in need closing first, such as the worrying corporate bonds performance, manifest in the HYG:SHY ratio, or the tech searching for the bottom (it‘s $NYFANG precisely). Quoting from yesterday‘s extensive analysis spanning beyond stocks, metals and the Fed:(…) Stocks have had a great run over the past 4 months, getting a bit ahead of themselves in some aspects such as valuations. Then, grappling with the rising long-term rates did strike.So did inflation fears, especially when looking at commodities. Inflation expectations are rising, but not galloping yet. What to make of the rising rates then? They‘re up for all the good reasons – the economy is growing strongly after the Q4 corona restrictions (I actually expect not the conservative 5% Q1 GDP growth, but over 8% at least) while inflation expectations are lagging behind. In other words, the reflation (of economic growth) is working and hasn‘t turned into inflation (rising or roughly stable inflation expectations while the economy‘s growth is slowing down). We‘re more than a few quarters from that – I fully expect really biting inflation (supported by overheating in the job market) to be an 2022-3 affair. As regards S&P 500 sectors, would you really expect financials and energy do as greatly as they do if the prospects were darkening?Stocks are well positioned to keep absorbing the rising nominal rates. What has been the issue, was the extraordinarily steep pace of such move, leaving long-term Treasuries trading historically very extended compared to their 50-day moving averages. While they can snap back over the next 1-2 weeks, the 10y Treasury bond yield again breaking 1.50% is a testament to the Fed not willing to do anything at the moment. Little does the central bank care about commodities moves, when it didn‘t consider any market moves thus far as unruly.Gold market offered proof of being finally ready for a rebound, and it‘s visible in the closing prices of the yellow metal and its miners. Being more than a one day occurence, supported by yesterday presented big picture signals, the market confirmed my yesterday‘s suggestion of an upcoming gold. It appears we‘ll get more than a few days to assess the legs this rally is made of, facilitating nimble charting of the waters ahead my usual way:(…) Just as I was calling out gold as overheated in Aug 2020 and prone to a real soft patch, some signs of internal strength in the precious metals sector were present this Feb already. And now as we have been testing for quite a few days the first support in my game plan, we‘re getting once again close to a bullish formation that I called precisely to a day, and had been banging the bearish gold drum for the following two days, anticipating the downside that followed. Flexibility and broad horizons result in accentuated, numerous other portfolio calls – such as long Bitcoin at $32,275 or long oil at $58 practically since the great return with my very own site. We‘re now on the doorstep of visible, positive price outperformance in the gold miners (GDX ETF) as gold prices didn‘t break the higher bullish trend by declining through both the Mar 4 presented supports of my game plan. As I wrote yesterday, if prices move higher from here, they have simply bounced off support, especially given the accompanying signs presented, not the least of which is the dollar getting back under pressure. Make no mistake, the greenback isn‘t in a bull market – it‘s merely consolidation before plunging to new 2021 lows. I have not been presenting any USDX declining resistance lines and breakout arguments, because prices can be both above such a line, and lower than at the moment of „breakout“ at the same time – ultimately, rising and declining supports and resistances are a play on the speed of the move, where pure inertia / deceleration / reprieve doesn‘t break the prior, higher trend. And as I called in summer 2020 the dollar to roll over and keep plunging, that‘s still what‘s unfolding.How does it tie in to commodities and stocks? We‘re not at extreme moves in either, and I see copper, iron, oil, agrifoods as benefiting from the reflationary efforts greatly. Similarly and in spite of the $NYFANG travails, it would be ill-advised to search for stock market tops now (have you seen how well the Dow Industrials is doing?) – no, we‘re not approaching a top that I would need to call the way I did in the early Sep buying climax. This is still the time to be running with the herd, and not against it – you can ignore the noise to the contrary for both the S&P 500 and commodities have a good year ahead. As for precious metals, we might have seen the bottom already – and in any case by the current shape of things, I don‘t see it occuring quarters ahead and hundreds buck lower.Bringing up the constant reevaluation of position‘s rationale, market reactions and narratives:(…) It‘s the markets‘ discounting mechanism of the future that counts – just as gold cleared the deflationary corona crash in psring 2020, just as it disregarded the tough Fed tone of 2H 2018, just as it sprang vigorously higher in early 2016 stunning bears in all three cases with sharp losses over many months, or just as stocks stopped declining well before economic news got better in April 2020 or March 2009. Make no mistake, the markets consider transitioning to a higher inflation environment already now (the Fed timidly says that reopening will spike it, well, temporarily they say), when inflation expectations are still relatively low, yet peeking higher based on the Fed‘s own data. Gold is in a secular bull market that started in 2018 (if not in late 2015), and what we‘re seeing since the Aug 2020 top, is the soft patch I called. The name of the game now, is where the downside stops – and it‘s one of the scenarios that it has just happened, especially if gold convincingly closed back above $1,720 without undue delay.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookWe have seen two intraday reversals to the downside yesterday, yet I think the effects would prove a temporary obstacle to the bulls only. Such candlestick patterns usually slow down the advance, but don‘t end it – and that‘s consistent with my yesterday‘s words of most of the downside being already in. Once the 3,900 zone is confidently passed, the bears would have missed the chance to reach below Thursday‘s lows.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) still ilustrate ongoing fragility for they have plunged below their Feb lows. This correction doesn‘t appear to be as totally over just yet, also given the sectoral picture that I am showing you next.Put/Call Ratio and VolatilityOption players clearly aren‘t concerned by yesterday‘s S&P 500 price action, and the VIX is painting a similarly neutral picture – just as the sentiment overall. Very good, we‘re primed to go higher next, from a starting position far away from the extreme greed levels.Technology and ValueThe sectoral divergence continues, and tech is still the weakest link in the whole S&P 500 rebound. The big $NYFANG names, the Teslas of this world, are the biggest drag, and not until these carve out a sustainable bottom (this needn‘t happen at the 200-day moving average really), I can declare this correction as getting close to over. It‘s the cyclicals, it‘s value stocks that is pulling the 500-strong index ahead, with financials (XLF ETF), industrials (XLI ETF) and energy (XLE ETF) leading the charge.Treasuries and DollarNominal, long-term Treasury rates have at least slowed their quickening Feb pace, even in the face of no action plan on the table by the Fed – the dollar moved higher on the realization next, and it‘s my view that once new Fed intervention is raised, it would have tremendous implications for the dollar, and last but not least – the precious metals.Gold and SilverFinally, this is the much awaited sign, enabling me to sound some bullish tone in gold again – the miners are outperforming the yellow metal with more than a daily credibility, which I view as key given the lackluster gold price action before yesterday (absence of intraday rebounds coupled with more downside attempts). It would turn stronger once the gold juniors start outperforming the seniors, which is not the case yet.Coupled with the 4-chart big picture view from yesterday, it‘s my view that the gold market is laying the groundwork for its turning:(…) Real rates are negative, nominal rates rose fast, and inflation expectations have been trending higher painfully slowly, not reflecting the jump in commodities or the key inflation precursor (food price inflation) just yet – these are the factors pressuring gold as the Fed‘s brinkmanship on inflation goes on. Once the Fed moves to bring long-term rates under control through intervention – hello yield curve control or at least twist – then real rates would would be pressured to drop, which would be a lifeline for gold – the real questions now are how far gold is willing to drop before that, and when that Fed move would happen. Needless to add as a side note regarding the still very good economic growth (the expansion is still young), stagflation is what gold would really love.Silver is carving out a bottom while both copper and platinum are turning higher already – these are That‘s the essence of one of my many profitable plays presented thus far – long silver short gold spread – clearly spelled out as more promising than waiting for gold upswing to arrive while the yellow metals‘ bullish signs have been appearing through Feb only to disappear, reappear, and so on.SummaryStocks haven‘t seen a real reversal yesterday, but more backing and filling till the tech finds bottom, appears due. The medium-term factors favor the bulls, but this correction isn‘t over yet, definitely not in time.Now, gold can show some strength – and silver naturally even more. The signs overall favoring a rebound, are appearing with increasing clarity for the short term, and the nearest weeks will show whether we have made a sustainable bottom already, or whether the $1,670 zone will get tested thoroughly. The bulls have the upper hand now.

Monday‘s reversal I didn‘t trust, gave way to another upswing – still within this getting long in the tooth correction. It‘s not over, and corporate bonds aren‘t yet confirming – it has lately become a reasonable expectation that when the higher quality debt instruments (think LQD, TLT) have a good day, junk corporate bonds get under pressure, but seeing their (HYG) performance more aligned with the S&P 500 is what I am looking for in a rally on solid footing.Which is what we‘re not having yet. Just compare the tech performance to the rest of the market, especially when viewed from the decling new highs new lows (yes, these closed higher on Monday). It‘s apparent that yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing was the result of reallocation to tech to the detriment (mild, but still) of much of the rest, in light of the key development of the day – falling Treasury yields.The stock market simply keeps dealing with the rising nominal rates, which would be easier when these move less fast and steeply than till now. Consolidation of their recent move appears underway, in fits and starts, as long-term Treasuries are:(…) trading historically very extended compared to their 50-day moving averages. While they can snap back over the next 1-2 weeks, the 10y Treasury bond yield again breaking 1.50% is a testament to the Fed not willing to do anything at the moment. On one hand, the central bank is fine with commodities on the move, which aren‘t yet really showing in CPI, (today‘s 0.4% reading is a baby step in this direction) and which the Fed claims would be only transitory. On the other hand, the bond market is buying into this assertion to a degree, because otherwise the long-term bonds decline would continue rather unabated. As we are in the reflationary stage when economic growth is rising faster than both inflation and inflation expectations, this laissez faire approach to inflation isn‘t likely to bite the Fed now as much as to truly wake up the bond vigilantes. It‘s that the „high rates“ we‘re experiencing currently, do not compare to the early 1980s, which underscores the fragility of the current monetary order. The Fed knows that, and it has been evident in the long preparatory period and baby steps in the prior rate raising and balance sheet shrinking cycle. The market will see through this, and the central bank would be forced to move to bring long-term rates down through yield curve control or a twist program, which would break the dollar, drive emerging markets, and not exactly control inflation – real rates would drop like a stone in such a scenario, turning around gold profoundly. But we‘re not yet there, as inflation is still too low and economic growth too high to force this scenario to play out. Market players are though already hedging against the rising (commodity prices thus far chiefly) inflation – and gold is still mostly on the defensive even as TIPS are starting to turn. What we‘re seeing in the miners to gold ratio, are green shoots in obvious need of follow through to turn the yellow metal sustainably around.Bottom line, if I had to pick only two markets to watch right now, it would be long-term Treasuries and the dollar.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookDaily rebound with a long upper knot, indicating consolidation ahead just as much as the low credibility Monday reversal. Force index is turning positive, but I am not looking at it to absolutely spike just yet. Overall though, the balance of forces is slowly but surely shifting towards the buyers, which would become more evident once we clear the key 3,900+ zone – perhaps even later today.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is the key non-confirmation, which can be partially explained by the bond market strains and reallocations into the long end of the curve instruments. Stocks are as a result relatively extended, yet without accompanying warning signs in the put/call ratio or the VIX. So far so good.Technology, Value and UtilitiesWhat a difference a day (of higher TLT prices makes)! Technology, which has been trading almost like utilities (lower black line) lately (yeah, reopening), rebounded ($NYFANG likewise strongly), and the value stocks endured a modest daily setback. Part and parcel of the microrotations as the stock market is getting used to higher nominal rates within the stock bull run as evidenced by the rebounding bullish percent index. Yes, this S&P 500 correction is in its latter innings.Treasuries and DollarNominal, long-term Treasury rates retreated on the day, and so did the dollar. Emerging markets liked that more than their bonds, which means that the current reprieve in yields is more likely temporary than not.Gold in the SpotlightMiners‘ outperformance of the yellow metal goes on, today illustrated with the stronger $HUI. Given the CPI readings just in, the gold bulls have a good reason to run with the assumption that even Fed‘s own real inflation underestimating models, are starting to reveal its slow appearance in the basket of consumer prices.It was on Monday when I showed you this chart first, and we‘re within a gold rebound highlighting some relative strength in the yellow metal vis-a-vis the rising rates – in the latter half of the 7-month long correction. The key narrative shift would be one of focus on inflation, inflation expectations, which would be also manifest in the Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) chart. Thus far, the presented big picture view is a reason for modest, guarded optimism (in need of constant monitoring).Silver and Its MinersSilver has turned higher yesterday, and so did platinum – it‘s however the silver miners (SIL ETF), which is making the upswing a little suspect, as in need to prove itself stronger.SummaryStocks are likely to take yesterday‘s setback in their stride, and this long, drawn out correction increasingly appears to be approaching its inevitable end. The medium-term factors favor the bulls, and new highs are a question of broad based advance across the sectors, adjusted for the reopening trades favoring high beta stocks.The belated and thus far rather meek gold rebound can proceed, and should the mining stocks keep their outperformance (ideally accompanied by silver miners doing the same with respect to the white metal), that would be a hallmark of the unfolding rebound carrying on. For now, guarded optimism is still the name of the game in the precious metals arena.

Gold rallied, gold miners soared to new March highs and the USD Index finally moved lower; and most likely, these price moves are not yet over.The precious metals market finally moved yesterday (Mar. 9) after providing us with bullish indications for quite a few days. Let’s jump right into charts and examine the details, starting with the part of the precious metals market that showed particular strength – mining stocks.Figure 1 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)Even though gold moved lower in early March, gold miners stopped declining after reaching my target area based several techniques – most importantly the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2020 rally, and the previous lows and highs. Just as miners’ relative weakness had previously heralded declines for the entire precious metals sector, their strength meant that a rally was about to start. And that’s just what we saw yesterday (Mar. 9).Ultimately, it seems that the above corrections will result in the GDX ETF moving to about $34 or so.The resistance levels in the $34 - $35 area are provided by:The late-February 2020 highThe rising neck level of the previously completed head and shoulders patternThe analogy to how big miners’ correction was in April (assuming that the mirror similarity continues)The declining blue resistance lineThe 50-day moving averageAdditionally, please note that the last few local tops were accompanied by RSI at about 50. The latter is currently below 45, suggesting that this rally has more potential, but that it’s not particularly extreme.The confirmation that the top is indeed in might come from the volume. Please note that the last three times when we saw really important tops, the GDX rallied on particularly strong volume. If we see something like that within the next 5 trading days or so (quite likely on Monday or close to it), we’ll have an even bigger chance of catching the reversal.Consequently, the GDX is likely to form a top in the above-described area.After breaking below the head-and-shoulders pattern, gold miners would then be likely to verify this breakdown by moving back up to the neck level of the pattern. Then, we would likely see another powerful slide – perhaps to at least $24.This is especially the case, since silver and mining stocks tend to decline particularly strongly if the stock market is declining as well. And while the exact timing of the market’s slide is not 100% clear, the day of reckoning for stocks is coming , and it might be very, very close.As I explained previously, based on the similarities to the 1929 and 2008 declines, it could be the case that the precious metals sector declines for about three months after the general stock market tops. And it seems that we won’t have to wait long for the latter. In fact, the next big move lower in stocks might already be underway, as the mid-Feb. 2021 top could have been the final medium-term top.Let’s consider what the GDX and GLD did on an intraday basis yesterday.Figure 2 - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Gold ETF (GLD) ComparisonAs I already wrote, mining stocks rallied to new monthly highs, and the above 4-hour chart (each candlestick represents 4 hours of trading) makes it crystal-clear that the late-February bottom was the moment after which miners stopped declining and started to trade sideways. Gold (here: the GLD ETF, which I’m using to have an apples-to-apples comparison – both ETFs trade on the same exchange) continued to decline in March. Well, to be precise, miners did form new yearly lows in March, and we went long almost right at one of those intraday lows , but the moves were not significant enough to really change anything.So, since miners no longer wanted to decline, and there were only two other things left for them to do: either nothing or rally.They had been doing nothing for several days, due to the lack of bullish leadership in gold. They just got this leadership yesterday, and they soared.Now, let’s keep in mind what I wrote in yesterday’s intraday Alert – namely, that mining stocks tend to rally particularly well in the initial part of the upswing, and then they underperform during the final part of the rally . So, when gold is above $1,750 or so, miners might already be rallying to a limited degree. Consequently, miners might rally above $34.27, but that is far from being certain. They might actually rally slightly less – perhaps to exactly $34 or so.I applied the Fibonacci retracement levels to the above chart, but I actually used them as Fibonacci extensions. My current upside target for gold is at about $1,770 (which corresponds to about $166 in the GLD ETF) and it’s at about $34 for mining stocks (GDX ETF). The Fibonacci extensions emphasize that if both targets were to be reached, then it means that gold so far rallied (intraday) about half of its entire rally, while mining stocks rallied (intraday) about 61.8% of their entire rally. This perfectly fits miners’ tendency to outperform in the initial part of a given move, which makes both price targets more reliable.Having said that, let’s move to gold.Figure 3 - COMEX Gold FuturesGold rallied strongly after bottoming right in the middle of my target area and after moving almost right to its June 2020 bottom, and after almost doubling its initial January decline. Yesterday’s rally also meant invalidation of the brief breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level based on the entire 2020 rally. Thus, the very short-term trend is up.Please keep in mind that the upswing might be relatively short-lived – perhaps lasting only one week or so. There’s a triangle-vertex-based reversal point on Monday, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see an interim top at that time, especially considering that:The triangle-vertex-based turning points have been working particularly well in the recent past – they marked the January and February tops.The corrective upswings during this medium-term decline (especially in mining stocks) often took about a week to complete – at least the easy part of the upswing took a week.The USD Index has been rallying relentlessly – just like in 2018 – in the last couple of days, but a quick pullback would not be surprising. In fact, it seems that one is already underway.Figure 4 - USD Index (DX.F)On March 8, the USD Index had closed above its lowest daily closing price of August 2020 (92.13), but yesterday, it closed back below this resistance. This means that we just saw an invalidation of the breakout – which is a bearish sign for the short term.How low could the USD Index move during this pullback? Not particularly low, as the similarity to 2018 implies a rather unbroken rally. The February 2021 high of 91.6 seems to be a quite likely target, but we might see the USDX move a bit lower as well – perhaps to one of the classic Fibonacci retracements based on the recent upswing – lowest of them (the 61.8% one) being at about 90.8.This pullback might trigger a question about the validity of the analogy to the 2018 rally, which seems to have taken place without any interruptions.Figure 5The analogy seems to remain intact when looking at it from the long-term point of view. Let’s keep in mind the recent decline was a bit sharper and it took less time to complete.The 2017 – 2018 decline took 387 day (between the top and the first low) and then there were 82 days between the initial and the final low (21.19% of the decline).This time, there were 269 days between the top and the first low. Adding 21.19% to this time, points to Feb. 12 as the "proportionately identical" bottom time target. The final bottom formed on Feb. 25 - just 9 trading days away from the analogy-based target. The analogy remains clearly intact.“So, doesn’t it imply that there shouldn’t be any pullbacks until the USD Index rallies above 94? ”No. And this becomes obvious once we zoom in.Figure 6You see, it’s not true that there were no pullbacks during the 2018 rally. There were, but they were simply too small to be visible from the long-term point of view.The first notable pullback took place in early May 2018, and it contributed to a corrective upswing in the precious metals market. To be precise, the USD Index declined after rallying for 56 trading days, but gold rallied earlier – 51 trading days after the USD Index’s final bottom. The USDX’s immediate-top formed 16 trading days after its final bottom, and gold’s bottom formed 10 trading days after the USD’s final bottom.Comparing this to the size of the previous decline in terms of the trading days, it was:51 – 56 trading days / 283 trading days = 18.02% - 19.79%10 – 16 trading days / 283 trading days = 3.53% - 5.65%Now, let’s examine the current situation.Figure 7The preceding decline lasted for 200 trading days and there were 41 – 42 trading days between the final USDX bottom and the short-term reversals in gold and USDX. Comparing this to the final USDX bottom, we get 7 – 8 trading days.Applying the previous percentages to the length of the most recent medium-term decline in the USD Index provides us with the following:18.02% - 19.79% x 200 trading days = ~36 - ~40 trading days3.53% - 5.65% x 200 trading days = ~7 - ~11 trading daysThe above estimation of about 36 – 40 trading days almost perfectly fits the current 41 – 42-day delay, and the estimation of about 7 – 11 trading days almost perfectly fits the current delay of 7 – 8 trading days.In other words, the analogy to the 2018 performance does not only remain intact – it actually perfectly confirms the validity of the current corrective upswing. Once again, it’s very likely just a pullback, not a big trend reversal.Also, please note that back in 2018, the USD Index corrected after moving back above its mid-2017 lows and now we see the analogy to that – the USDX corrects after moving back above its mid-2020 lows. Back in 2017, the USD Index corrected to approximately its previous short-term high (the January 2018 high). Now, the February high is providing strong support at about 91.6 – that’s where this brief correction might end – on an approximate basis.The above perfectly fits the scenario in which the precious metals market rallies on a very short-term basis (likely to about $1,770 in gold and about $34 in GDX), and then resumes its medium-term decline.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The daily banging on the 3,900 threshold shows in yesterday‘s upper knot, and this milestone has very good chances of being conquered today. More important than the exact timing though, are the internals marking the setup – we‘ve indeed progressed very far into this correction. While not historically among the longest ones, it‘s still getting long in the tooth – just as I was writing throughout the week.And it is getting stale, even if I look at the star non-cofirnation, the high yield corporate bonds. Relatively modest daily upswing, outshined by investment grade corporate bonds. Yes, the credit markets are calming down, and the tiny daily long-term Treasuries upswing doesn‘t reflect that fully just yet. Besides giving breathing room to defensives such as utilities and consumer staples, it‘s also very conducive to the precious metals sector.Copper, oil or agrifoods aren‘t flashing warning signs either – this is a healthy consolidation of steep prior gains as the dollar is getting again under pressure on retreating yields. Just as stocks are undergoing the larger rotation in favor of high beta value plays (financials and manufacturing ones are doing great, airlines jumped), the leaders out of the corona deflationary crash are leading no longer (technology). The picture of the unfolding reflationary recovery is a healthy one as rates are rising on account of improving economic environment, and inflation doesn‘t really bite yet.Ideal environment for the stock market to do well (hello my profitable open position), and for commodities to do really well. While the Fed is prepping the markets for (temporary, they say) higher inflation readings, gold didn‘t react too bullishly to yesterday‘s mildly positive CPI data – just wait for PPI data which would reflect the surging commodity prices more adequately. At the moment, evaluating the strength and internals of precious metals rebound, is the way to go as we might very well have seen the gold bottom, with the timid $1,670 zone test being all the bears could muster. Time and my dutiful reporting will tell.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and Its InternalsVolume isn‘t sharply contracting, and coupled with the price action, the rebound above 3,900 has good chance of succeeding. The path most ahead to entertain your imagination as well, looks as a little congested series of daily candles followed by a longer white one. We‘re in a stock bull market after all, and still not in danger of a significant (10%+) correction as I have been writing throughout 2021.Market breadth indicators have turned the corner really, underscoring accumulation within a returning bull market advance – just as the bullish percent index shows. A brief sideways to higher consolidation of this week‘s advance would only help to solidify it before the next run higher.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio‘s degree of non-confirmation has decreased, at least if you take direction into view. Finally, high yield corporate bonds are turning higher, and once they catch breath even more, the all time highs already in sight would be conquered as smoothly as the 3,900 zone I delineated earlier.Gold Sector ExaminedVery mild upswing in both the gold miners and gold – along the lines of a daily consolidation with bullish undertones. This early in the precious metals upswing, miners are in the pool position, and their relative and gradually increasing strength has been visible since the early Mar days. So far so good here.Silver, Platinum and the RestSilver isn‘t yet outshining the rest of the crowd, and that‘s good, for it often tends to do so in the later stages of the precious metals sector advance. Within the coming precious metals advance, I continue to view silver outperformance as expected. Part monetary metal, part commodity, it‘s uniquely position to benefit. Its yesterday‘s setback is nothing to be concerned about as the gold, gold miners and platinum rebound keeps doing largely well.Comparing the gold miners to gold ($HUI:$GOLD) ratio to the silver miners to silver (SIL:$SILVER) ratio is returning a bullish snapshot of the current advance too. The beaten down gold sector is leading the charge, and the silver one will play catch-up in time.SummaryHaving reached the 3,900 zone, the S&P 500 is likely to consolidate the gains next. Due to the improving key markets (corporate bonds and tech), I am not looking for any this week‘s potential setback to turn the tide in this aging correction really.The gold upswing is proceeding, helped by the weakening dollar and ever so slightly retreating Treasury yields. After clearing the volume profile defined support at $1,720 and stretching a little below, the bulls next objective is the roughly $1,775 figure marking the Feb lows. Should that one be conquered, the odds of having seen gold bottom this Monday, would have dramatically increased.

Records were made to be broken. Thursday's (Mar. 11) session was the embodiment of that.Every index closed in positive territory, and the Dow, S&P, and Russell all closed at record highs. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq led the way again with a 2.52% gain. After touching correction territory two times in the last week, the Nasdaq is up over 6.3% for the week. This is why you buy the dips, and why I said the second, the Nasdaq drops below 13000 support that you should buy.Be bold, a little contrarian, block out the noise, and never try to time the market. Sure, when you buy a dip during uncertain times, you run the risk of encountering more pain. However, in the long-term, stocks trend upwards.For example, do you also know what happened precisely a year ago, on March 11, 2020? The headline on CNBC read like so: Dow plunges 10% amid coronavirus fears for its worst day since the 1987 market. See for yourself.You know what else happened? The market didn't bottom for another 2 weeks and declined another 21%.However, if you bought the Dow-tracking DIA ETF on March 11 and held it this entire time, you'd have gained 40.51%.Imagine if you bought the dip as I recommended for tech.I cautiously said to BUY the QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq, on February 24 but recommended doing it cautiously and selectively. I doubled down once it dropped below support at 13000 and tripled down once the Nasdaq hovered around 12600 on Monday (Mar. 8).As I said before, the Nasdaq is up over 6.3% this week. If you followed my lead on this, you'd be pleased.Inflation fears and the acceleration of bond yields are still a concern. But let's have a little perspective here. It appears as if things have stabilized for now. Bond yields are still at a historically low level, and the Fed Funds Rate remains 0%. Plus, jobless claims beat estimates again and came in at 712,000. This is nearly the lowest they've been in a whole year.We will see how President Biden's newly signed $1.9 trillion stimulus package affects yields and inflation. But for now, with the Fed showing no signs of hiking rates shortly and inflation looking tamer than expected, we could see more firepower for stocks.So is the downturn overblown and already finished?Time will tell. I think that we could still see some volatile movements and consolidation to close the week out. That's just what happens with surges and swings like this. While I maintain that I do not foresee a crash like what we saw last March and feel that the wheels remain in motion for an excellent 2021, Mr. Market still has to figure itself out.A broad-based correction of some sort is still very possible. I mean, the Nasdaq's already hit correction territory twice in the last week. Corrections are healthy and normal market behavior. Only twice in the previous 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017).Most importantly, a correction right now would be an excellent buying opportunity. Once again- look at the Nasdaq since March 8.It can be a very tricky time for investors right now. But never, ever, trade with emotion. There could be some more short-term pain, yes. But if you sat out last March when others bought, you are probably very disappointed in yourself.You can never time the market.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:There is optimism but signs of concern. The market has to figure itself out. A further downturn is possible, but I don't think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen any time soon.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Nasdaq- That’s Why I Called BUYFigure 1- Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPCan I flex again, please?Flexing.The Nasdaq's performance this week is why I called BUY despite hitting two corrections in the last week. On Tuesday (Mar. 9), the Nasdaq saw its best day since November. The index's gains continued after that and is now sitting pretty up over 6.3% for the week.If you bought the dip, good on you. It's an excellent time to be a little bit bold and fearless. Take Ark Funds guru Cathie Wood, for example. Many old school investors scoffed at her comments on Monday (Mar. 8) after she practically doubled down on her bullishness for her funds and the market as a whole. After crushing 2020, her Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK) tanked over 30%. Many called her the face of a bubble. Many laughed at her. Tuesday, March 9, ARKK saw its best day in history. Week-to-date, ARKK is up a staggering 16.71%.I'm not saying that we're out of the woods with tech. But I am saying not to try and time the market, not get scared, and have some perspective.The Nasdaq is once again positive for the year, but unfortunately, I no longer think we're at a BUY level. We could see some consolidation and profit-taking to end the week. Still, if we see a significant drop, especially below 13000, it could be a good buy again. It can't hurt to keep nibbling- we're still off the highs. I'm going to stick with the theme of "selectively buying" sub-sectors such as cloud computing, e-commerce, and fintech.I think you should now HOLD and let the RSI guide your Nasdaq decisions. See what happens over subsequent sessions, research emerging tech sectors, and high-quality companies, and buy that next dip.For an ETF that attempts to correlate with the performance of the NASDAQ directly, the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) is a good option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as when small-caps will be buyable, inflation, and emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Stock bulls went right for all time highs yesterday, clearing the 3,900 threshold in this correction – one that is in its very late innings indeed. But the preceding upswing has been sharp, and not all the internals support such a swift recovery, which is why I am still looking for consolidation to strike at any moment.We might be actually experiencing such a daily one right now, as today‘s premarket session has sent S&P 500 futures a few dozen points down. The big picture is though one of of the stock market getting used to rising rates, which are rising in reflection of the economic growth. But what about the snapback short-term rally in long-term Treasuries? It‘s not materializing as the instrument went down again yesterday – unconvincingly bobbing above recent lows. The defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities, reversed yesterday (at a time when technology rose), sending a warning that we‘re about to see higher rates again. Probably not happening as fast as through Feb, but still. Let‘s bring up my recent perspective on high rates, what they are exactly:(…) the „high rates“ we‘re experiencing currently, do not compare to the early 1980s, which underscores the fragility of the current monetary order. The Fed knows that, and it has been evident in the long preparatory period and baby steps in the prior rate raising and balance sheet shrinking cycle. The market will see through this, and the central bank would be forced to move to bring long-term rates down through yield curve control or a twist program, which would break the dollar, drive emerging markets, and not exactly control inflation – real rates would drop like a stone in such a scenario, turning around gold profoundly. But the market knows the Fed isn‘t getting ready to really do anything more than it does right now. Gold rebounded on Tuesday, and the rally took it above $1,730 but the daily reversal is concerning. As I wrote yesterday in the title, the gold bulls can‘t rest – but they are resting, and prices are back at the lower end of the $1,720 volume profile.Assessing the damage in the early stages of today‘s session will clarify whether the rally‘s dynamics are still intact, or not – regardless of today‘s headwinds. Silver isn‘t exactly at its strongest today, and we‘re likely to get soon into the session an idea about where miners‘ strength is. And it‘s more likely that it won‘t be anything to write home about.Let‘s recall my yesterday‘s words, and pick what‘s relevant to the metals:(…) While the Fed is prepping the markets for (temporary, they say) higher inflation readings, gold didn‘t react too bullishly to yesterday‘s mildly positive CPI data – just wait for PPI data which would reflect the surging commodity prices more adequately. At the moment, evaluating the strength and internals of precious metals rebound, is the way to go as we might very well have seen the gold bottom, with the timid $1,670 zone test being all the bears could muster. Time and my dutiful reporting will tell.Commodities are likely to do well in this reflationary phase, and the same goes for its turn to inflation. With precious metals, much depends upon their discounting mechanism‘s timing – when would they start doubting the transitory inflation utterances.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe S&P 500 upswing continues in pretty much a straight line, and the frequency of upper knots raises the probability of a short-term reprieve. Yes, it‘s risk-on, but a little pause would be healthy. Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds have moved higher yesterday, mirroring the S&P 500 advance. That‘s encouraging even though the high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio is still visibly lagging behind stocks. The non-confirmation‘s seriousness has though decreased markedly over the two last sessions, pointing to improving internals of the upcoming stock market upleg.Technology and ValueTechnology has been rallying on decreasing volume, also demonstrating a prominent upper knot. If there is one sector where the coming S&P 500 consolidation would originate, it would be here. Value stocks held their own yesterday, in a nod to the high beta reopening trades. I am not looking for VTV to weaken distinctly here.Gold and YieldsThe gold upswing reversed intraday while long-term Treasuries (TLT ETF) hadn‘t really moved in their tight daily range. Erasing much of the overnight selling today, would be probably the most the bulls would be able to achieve today. But even that isn‘t the deciding factor to determine the fate of the recovery off the $1,670 area.Upswing in the BalanceGold miners are still painting a positive picture. They are outperforming gold while silver isn‘t spiking – the white metal is under even more pressure today than gold itself. So, the signs from miners and silver balance each other out to a degree. The whole sectors keeps hanging in the balance after yesterday‘s session. Each day or even hour the bulls don‘t utilize to reverse today‘s setback, is questioning the upswing continuation. Not much to add here as the daily momentum apprears shifting to the bears again.SummaryHaving conquered the 3,900 zone, the S&P 500 is likely to consolidate the gains next. The put/call ratio and volatility are at relatively lower readings, and the next setback for stocks would come from tech again. Not overly dramatic, but a brief challenge still.The gold upswing stalled, and its fate is being decided. Having fallen through the volume profile defined support at $1,720, the bulls objective is to recapture this zone. Tall order..

Now that stocks closed at new all time highs, the correction is officially over. And what little rest stock bulls could claim last week, arrived on Friday. Yet, the bull is strong enough to defend the 3,900 zone, and charge higher the same day.Who could be surprised, given the modern monetary theory ruling the economic landscape? The Fed amply accomodative, one $1.9T stimulus bill just in, and a $2T infrastructure one in the making. That‘s after the prior Trump stimulus, and who would have forgotten how it all started in April 2020? The old congressional saying „a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you‘re talking real money“, needs updating.Stocks are readying another upswing as the volatility index is approaching 20 again, and the put/call ratio shows complacent readings. The sectoral examination supports higher highs as tech has reversed intraday losses, closing half of the opening bearish gap. Value stocks naturally powered to new highs, with industrials, energy and financial performing best. Real estate keeps showing remarkable momentum, and has been among the best performers off correction‘s lows.These all have happened while long-term Treasury yields have broken to new highs. Are they stopping to be the boogeyman?As I‘ll show you, inflation expectations are rising – and the bond market is reflecting that. The market‘s discounting mechanism is at work, mirroring the future virtually ascertained CPI rise, if you look carefully into the PPI entrails. This inflation won‘t be as temporary as the Fed proclaims it would – but it still hasn‘t arrived in full force. We‘re merely at the stage of financial assets rising, because that‘s where the newly minted money is chiefly going.As regards gold, let‘s recall my Thursday‘s words:(…) At the moment, evaluating the strength and internals of precious metals rebound, is the way to go as we might very well have seen the gold bottom, with the timid $1,670 zone test being all the bears could muster. Time and my dutiful reporting will tell.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe S&P 500 upswing took a little breath, and at the same time continued unchallenged. The path of least resistance simply remains higher. Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) have declined, but don‘t give the impression of readying a breakdown. I understand it as a daily weakness, because the whole bond market was under pressure on Friday, with investment grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) taking it on the chin as well. Russell 2000 and Emerging MarketsRussell 2000 keeps doing better than the 500-strong index, which is natural and expected given the prevailing investment themes doing well, value stocks rising, and euphoric speculation running rampant. Emerging market weakness needs to be viewed through the strains stronger dollar and rising rates cause abroad. That‘s why I am not viewing EEM underperformance as a warning sign for U.S. equity markets.Inflation Expectations and YieldsQuite a relentless rise in my favorite metric of forward looking inflation, isn‘t it? Treasury inflation protected securities to long-dated Treasuries (TIP:TLT) have been relentlessly rising off the corona crash lows, and their accent in 2021 has accelerated just as steeply as the nominal rates reflect (see below).Gold Upswing AnatomyGold refused the premarket losses, and has rebounded to close almost unchanged on the day. Is that sign of strength or weakness?The miners to gold ratio provides a clear answer, and it‘s a bullish one to open the week. Finally, the gold market is showing signs of life on a prolonged basis, which I started talking on Tuesday. Regardless of Friday‘s weakness in the yellow metal, it‘s so far so good as the miners keep leading the charge.Silver weakness in the course of the upswing isn‘t a too worrying sign – silver miners outperforming as well, is a more important signal. Smacks of broadening leadership in the unfolding precious metals upswing. SummaryThe consolidation of S&P 500 gains was and remains bound to be a short-term affair as the bulls take on new highs and surge well past them in the days and weeks ahead. The top is very far off as this still nascent recovery gets so much stimulus fuel that overheating becomes a very real possibility this year already.Gold has turned an important corner on Friday, and so have the miners – be they gold or silver ones. The precious metals upswing is unfolding, and decreased sensitivity to rising yields is a pleasant sight for the bulls. Well, that‘s exactly what I had been writing about transitioning to a higher inflation environment exactly one week ago.

The yellow metal’s behavior looks more bearish now than it did in 2017-2018. The USDX has a lot of bullets in its chamber, and gold can be riddled with them.Plenty of warning signs on the near-term horizon: The USDX is after a long-tern breakout, traders are reducing net-short positions, and the slightest shift in U.S. dollar sentiment can lead the rest of the herd to follow. If a USDX resurgence is combined with an equity shock, then the precious metals are in for trouble.Last Friday (Mar. 12), we focused quite a bit on the moves in the gold miners and how their related ETFs (GDX and GDXJ) are faring and which will suffer most during the next phase of the decline. We also touched on this subject last Wednesday as well. It was important to shed light on the miners because they’ve been leading the charge in the corrective upswing. I also wanted to explain the Eurozone’s impact on the precious metals and how crucial it is to examine the bigger picture and how the pieces are all connected. Today, let’s shift our attention over to the currency perspective, namely the USDX.The price shape and time analogies are truly remarkable right now. It’s quite often the case that history rhymes, but it’s rare for it to rhyme so closely and clearly to what we now see in the case of the USD Index. And the implications for precious metals investors are profound.On Mar. 8 , I warned that with the USD Index confronting its mid-2020 lows (resistance), a short-term dip could occur in the coming days. But after declining by 0.34% last week, the negativity could be short lived.Case in point: the 2017-2018 analogue is already in full swing, and while short-term dips were part of the historical journey, the USDX could be about to exit its consolidation phase.Please see below:You can also see the similarity between two periods and the technical patterns that they included in the chart below:Even while looking at the price moves for just a second, the size and shape of the 2017-2018 analogue clearly mirrors the 2020-current price action . Although this time, it took less than 118 days for the USD Index to move from peak to trough.In 2017-2018, it also took 82 days for the USDX to form a final bottom (the number of days between the initial bottom and the final bottom) and the duration amounts to 21.19% of the overall timeframe. If we applied a similar timeframe to today’s move, then the USD Index should have bottomed on Feb. 12. It actually bottomed (finally) on Feb. 25, which was just 8 trading days away from the former date. Taking into account the sizes of the moves that preceded the previous declines (they took approximately one year to complete), this is extremely close and an excellent confirmation that the self-similar pattern remains intact.In addition, as the USDX approached its final bottom in 2017-2018, gold traded sideways. Today, however, gold has been in a downward spiral. From a medium-term perspective, the yellow metal’s behavior is actually more bearish than it was in 2017-2018.Finally, the USD Index’s breakout above its 50-day moving average (which it still holds today) is exactly what added gasoline to the USDX’s 2018 fire. Case in point: after the 2018 breakout, the USDX surged back to its previous high. Today, that level is roughly 94.5.Moreover, gold’s trepidation alongside the USD Index strength on Mar. 12 adds even more validity to the 2017-2018 analogy.I wrote on Mar. 10:It’s not true that there were no pullbacks during the 2018 rally. There were, but they were simply too small to be visible from the long-term point of view.The first notable pullback took place in early May 2018, and it contributed to a corrective upswing in the precious metals market. To be precise, the USD Index declined after rallying for 56 trading days, but gold rallied earlier – 51 trading days after the USD Index’s final bottom. The USDX’s immediate-top formed 16 trading days after its final bottom, and gold’s bottom formed 10 trading days after the USD’s final bottom.Comparing this to the size of the previous decline in terms of the trading days, it was:51 – 56 trading days / 283 trading days = 18.02% - 19.79%10 – 16 trading days / 283 trading days = 3.53% - 5.65%More importantly though, when the USD Index turned a short-term decline into consolidation in mid-2018, gold’s hesitant reaction highlighted the yellow metal’s anxiety. And what followed? Well, gold’s next move was significantly lower, while the USD Index’s next move was significantly higher. This means that it was likely a good idea that we took profits from our long positions recently when the GDX moved to $32.96 (opening at $30.80 - $31).Please see below:In addition, if we analyze the pairs’ very recent price action, it’s a splitting image.On Friday (Mar. 12), the USD Index rallied by 0.28%, while gold was (roughly) directionless despite the intraday volatility. And just like in 2017-2018, the yellow metal’s behavior signals a forthcoming climax . As a result, gold and the USD Index are behaving exactly as they did before going their separate ways in 2017-2018. And this means a bearish gold price prediction for the following weeks (not necessarily hours, though).Please see below:To explain, I wrote on Mar. 10:Let’s examine the current situation: the preceding decline lasted for 200 trading days and there were 41 – 42 trading days between the final USDX bottom and the short-term reversals in gold and USDX. Comparing this to the final USDX bottom, we get 7 – 8 trading days.Applying the previous percentages to the length of the most recent medium-term decline in the USD Index provides us with the following:18.02% - 19.79% x 200 trading days = ~36 - ~40 trading days3.53% - 5.65% x 200 trading days = ~7 - ~11 trading daysThe above estimation of about 36 – 40 trading days almost perfectly fits the current 41 – 42-day delay, and the estimation of about 7 – 11 trading days almost perfectly fits the current delay of 7 – 8 trading days.In other words, the analogy to the 2018 performance does not only remain intact – it actually perfectly confirms the validity of the current corrective upswing. Once again, it’s very likely just a pullback, not a big trend reversal.The bottom line?Given the size of the 2018 upswing, 94.5 on the USD Index is likely the first, of many, potential upside targets.Adding to the list of upside catalysts, the USD Index still has plenty of other bullets in its chamber. For instance, we’re also in the early innings of a shift in U.S. dollar sentiment. With short interest hitting an all-time high in late-2020, it was a complete fire sale. Today, however, short interest may have peaked.Please see the below chart based on the CoT report :Please consider how big rallies followed the moments when the net speculative position as % of total open interest started to rally back up after being oversold for months. The situation here is still more extreme than it was in early 2018 and 2014, suggesting that the upcoming rally might be bigger than the ones that we saw then.As further evidence, speculative futures traders ( non-commercial ) actually reduced their net-short positions by 1,216 contracts last week (the net of the two values in the red box below). As a result, the slightest shift in sentiment could lead the rest of the herd to follow.Finally, let’s not forget that the USD Index is after a long-term, more-than-confirmed breakout. This means that the long-term trend for the U.S. dollar is up.In conclusion, the USD Index is likely shifting from consolidation to ascension. With the size, scope and duration of the recent price action mirroring 2017-2018, it’s only a matter of time before the USD Index’s medium-term breakout gives way to a material breakthrough. What’s more, the USD Index is finally reacting to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields . Initially ignoring the late-2020 surge, a bottom, and subsequent rally in the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has lifted the USD Index 80% of the time since 2003. And with the relationship seemingly restored in 2021, the combination is profoundly bearish for the PMs, especially given today’s triangle-vertex-based reversal in gold.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

All markets are related. Looking for liquidity provides times when execution is guaranteed, and slippage minimized. Professionals tend to gravitate towards the futures and forex markets. These markets are leveraged and least regulated (no uptick rule for shorting the market).Stacking Liquidity, When to trade Bitcoin:Stacking Liquidity, GMT daily chart as of March 15th, 2021The chart above tries to show when these prime times occur daily to place one’s trades. For the long-term investor, these times guarantee good fills and good times to get in and out of their positions. For short- to mid-term trades, these times represent in addition opportunities to find themselves in transactions at the right time. To clarify, whenever a market opens around the globe, it means an abnormality, a possible imbalance. These imbalances can be the seed to a directional move more significant than at other times.If you visit Wall Street, you will find market makers on typical days trade the market open for about ninety minutes, then handing over operations to their assistants while enjoying elaborate lunches and returning for the last 90 minutes of the trading session. You want to focus alongside this more meaningful time in the market rather than being caught in the noise.It is stacking one’s odds that provide for a consistent outcome of profitable trading. In this case, we minimize risk by entering and exiting the market at Prime Time. Prime Time being liquidity stacked session overlaps (Asia+London and London+New York). BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, The weekend fake:BTC-USDT, daily chart as of March 15th, 2021That leaves us with weekend moves that have a lower probability of follow-through. Last weekend’s move to all-time new highs is a good example. Old highs got penetrated, but actual price behavior reveals once the Asia session starts on Monday.Short-term trading as such is directionally neutral for now. For the midterm, we plotted possible reentry zones in the daily chart above.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, A bright future:BTC-USDT, weekly chart as of March 15th, 2021We find the long-term price expansion of Bitcoin still in place as long as prices do not runaway towards the upside exuberantly in fast motion.Even if you have high time frame entries or exits, it is wise to pick market times of a high degree of liquidity and strong participation.When to trade Bitcoin:It is essential to look at one’s desired trading instrument for abnormalities like the weekend night moves on Bitcoin. Position yourself before breakouts to such moves to avoid traps and volatility that requires larger stops, representing larger risk.Bitcoin has a relationship with the precious metal sector. Gold leading this sector typically shows price moves at the London session open (4:00 am EST), and as such, these are times to have an eye out for Bitcoin as well. Gold also is known to move at the U.S. premarket hours (8:30 am EST), and the actual NYSE opens at 9:30 am EST. Picking one’s battles timed to suggested hours in the first chart of this publication allows for risk minimization. Consequently, it provides a scheduled trading routine versus the risk of struggling to pay 24/7 attention and deal with a lot of price noise and fatigue risk.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 16th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Barely visible, but still a red candle – does yesterday mark a turning point? Even the volatility index refused to decline further on the day, and the option traders increased their put allocations. Is this a real reason to be cautious, or it represents mere window dressing before the Fed?When it comes to the sectoral view, not much has really changed in the S&P 500. Technology rose yesterday but gave up all intraday gains. Value stocks appear ready for a breather, and financials, energy and industrials all declined. That doesn‘t bode extraordinarily well for today‘s session, but this is not the place to look at when it comes to trading today‘s markets.It‘s the long-term Treasuries that I am focused on the most. Still as extended as lately ever relative to their 50-day moving average, they‘re weighing heavily on the markets. Stocks have gotten used to their message of rising inflation and economic recovery as we‘re still in the reflation phase, and not in the inflation one – but it‘s the precious metals that are suffering here, showing best in the copper to 10y Treasury yield ratio.I am not looking for the Fed to act today by adjusting its forward guidance stance or language, or taking a U-turn on inflation. No, they‘ll maintain the transitory stance even though markets are transitioning to a higher inflation environment already. The Fed won‘t do much this time.My prior Monday‘s words ring true also today:(…) Inflation expectations are rising, but not galloping yet. What to make of the rising rates then? They‘re up for all the good reasons – the economy is growing strongly after the Q4 corona restrictions (I actually expect not the conservative 5% Q1 GDP growth, but over 8% at least) while inflation expectations are lagging behind. In other words, the reflation (of economic growth) is working and hasn‘t turned into inflation (rising or roughly stable inflation expectations while the economy‘s growth is slowing down). We‘re more than a few quarters from that – I fully expect really biting inflation (supported by overheating in the job market) to be an 2022-3 affair. As regards S&P 500 sectors, would you really expect financials and energy do as greatly as they do if the prospects were darkening?So, I am looking for stocks to do rather well as they are absorbing the rising nominal rates. And this still translates into yesterday‘s throughts:(…) Global liquidity isn‘t retreating exactly, emerging markets are building a solid base regardless of the dollar going higher two days in a row, and emerging market bonds are fighting to recover just as much as long-dated Treasuries. Coupled with the sectoral analysis, this is conducive for the unfolding stock market upswing and for commodities as well. We‘re still in a constructive environment for both, and I look within the latter at especially copper, nickel and iron to do well. For gold, the key question remains whether copper upswings will outpace any yield increases on the long end, which have moderated their increases in Mar compared to Feb. That‘s good but not nearly enough given that even gold afficionados have come to expect lower prices lately quite en masse. Sign of capitulation off which the upswing was born? Yes, and the key questions now are whether we‘re seeing a pause, or a top in the upswing, and whether the next selling pressure would break below the $1,670 zone or not – see my early March game plan. The volume profile thin zone around $1,760 appears out of reach for now, without a Fed catalyst. I don‘t look for the central bank to invite any speculation on when the next rate hike might come (forget Brazil‘s example). They might not even talk about bringing down rates at the long end through a twist program. I certainly don‘t look for clues as to increasing the $120bn monthly pace of monetary injections. Unless the market perceives the Fed as underplaying the threat of inflation and showing tolerance to its palpable overshoot, the overall mix of positions and conference statements might bring gold under renewed pressure as it meanders a little below $1,730 as we speak.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe S&P 500 upswing took another daily breather yesterday in the end, and the volume doesn‘t send clear signals either way. Consolidation followed by new highs appears though the most likely scenario.Credit MarketsAfter quite some time, stocks are trading at very elevated levels relative to the high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio. Now, it‘s three days in a row that the latter doesn‘t confirm the stock market upswing. The bulls better be cautious here over at least a few sessions as the latest historical evidence shows that Fed pronouncements haven‘t been accompanied by fully risk-on moves exactly.Let‘s not forget the big picture, and that‘s of the stock market rising at the expense of debt instruments. Please note how little has the early Mar correction achieved in denting the S&P 500 appeal. The stock market bull is alive and well, very well actually.Gold in the StraitsGold still remains resilient to rising yields, but its inability to rally convincingly is worrying for the bulls. After all, this $1,730 zone shouldn‘t have been any real obstacle after three days of the rally, yet the yellow metal had to rise from the dead on Friday to fight another day. And given that it hasn‘t progressed since, it makes me think the bulls are hanging around for a remotely possible Fed surprise only.It‘s only the miners that are kind of still positive here. Yet, even their upswing was challenged yesterday, but that was on low volume. And that‘s constructive for the bulls when it comes to interpreting yesterday‘s events.The lack of silver outperformance before the sellers take over, is another sign why the upswing might not be over just yet. Still, these are just secondary clues, for nothing is more bullish than rising prices, which is what we obviously haven‘t seen in the metals much really.Key Ratio SpeaksWhile not tracking each other as closely as lately, the copper to 10y Treasury yield is sending an ominous signal still. The key question is whether long-dated Treasuries rise, or gold falls – I am not looking for copper to deviate from the current steeply rising trajectory much.SummaryS&P 500 is again entering daily consolidation mode, justifying my decision to take some of the prior profits off the table earlier today. While the Fed won‘t likely deliver real surprises later today, the credit markets are flashing warning signs more noticeably than yesterday. Still, the stock market bull is very far from making a top.Gold is being increasingly more challenged and stuck in the $1,730 zone, instead of clearing it.The yellow metal awaits today‘s Fed pronouncements, and barring a dovish(ly perceived) surprise, it looks ready to give up a portion of recent gains. All eyes on long-term Treasuries remains the battle cry.

Fed messaging was rightfully interpreted as dovish – full employment is in effect its single mandate now. Yes, the central bank will tolerate higher inflation, and has prepped the markets for its advent (as if these didn‘t know already). Powell managed to walk the fine line between economic optimism, pushback on the idea of raising rates or taper, and yet implicitly acknowledged the growing liquidity concerns with one little, gentle prod. Markets naturally liked the tone, overlooking no mention of action on rising yields, and stocks, metals and commodities turned positive on the day – quite strongly so. The dollar declined visibly as long-term Treasuries recovered intraday losses on high volume. Highly charged finish to the day, but today‘s analysis will show that little has actually changed in its internals. Rates are rising for the good reason of improving economy and its outlook, reflation (economic growth rising faster than inflation and inflation expectations) hasn‘t given way to all out inflation, and stocks with commodities remain in a secular bull market. We‘re in the decade of real assets outperforming paper ones, but that will become apparent only much later into the 2020s.So, the central bank confirmed my yesterday‘s assessment of its tone and Treasuries take:(…) I am not looking for the Fed to act today by adjusting its forward guidance stance or language, or taking a U-turn on inflation. No, they‘ll maintain the transitory stance even though markets are transitioning to a higher inflation environment already. The Fed won‘t do much this time.They might not even talk about bringing down rates at the long end through a twist program. I certainly don‘t look for clues as to increasing the $120bn monthly pace of monetary injections. Unless the market perceives the Fed as underplaying the threat of inflation and showing tolerance to its palpable overshoot, the overall mix of positions and conference statements might bring gold under renewed pressure as it meanders a little below $1,730 as we speak.Long-term Treasuries … are weighing heavily on the markets. Stocks have gotten used to their message of rising inflation and economic recovery... – but it‘s the precious metals that are suffering here, showing best in the copper to 10y Treasury yield ratio.For gold, the key question remains whether copper upswings will outpace any yield increases on the long end, which have moderated their increases in Mar compared to Feb. That‘s good but not nearly enough given that even gold afficionados have come to expect lower prices lately quite en masse. Sign of capitulation off which the upswing was born? Yes, and the key questions now are whether we‘re seeing a pause, or a top in the upswing, and whether the next selling pressure would break below the $1,670 zone or not – see my early March game plan. The volume profile thin zone around $1,760 appears out of reach for now, without a Fed catalyst.And while we got a good confidence building one yesterday, I don‘t see it as strong enough to power precious metals higher immediately. It‘s nice that gold is decoupling from the rising yields but I view its upswing as demanding on current and future patience. Gold miners are still showing the way, and will be a key barometer in telling whether today‘s premarket downswing in antidollar, risk-on plays is a meaningful turn or not. For now, the renewed long-term Treasury yield increases (and tech selloff to a degree) point to reemergence of lingering Fed doubts.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookThe upper knot in the S&P 500 upswing spells short-term caution. The chart posture would be stronger without it, but at the same time, the volume and candle itself aren‘t ones of reversal. The most likely outcome of upcoming sessions still appears as resumption of the prior grind higher, which is in line with my yesterday‘s message of consolidation followed by new highs as the most likely scenario.Credit MarketsThe long upper knot in the high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio shows that the bond market isn‘t on board with the Fed – at a time when stocks aren‘t panicking in the least. Given the big picture in the economy and the combo of monetary and fiscal policy initiatives, I look for this to be a storm in the tea cup when it comes to (higher future) stock prices, and I am keenly on the lookout for possible deterioration in the corporate bond markets as relates to the S&P 500.Technology and ValueThe tech upswing wasn‘t really convincing, but it‘s been value stocks‘ turn to drive higher S&P 500 prices. No change in dynamic here. It‘s however the relation to not as strong Russell 2000 or emerging markets yesterday that hints at headwinds in stocks for today. A play on patience, again.Inflation ExpectationsYesterday‘s Fed message gave no reason for these to decline, and prior uptrend continues unabated. Bond yields haven‘t though frontrunned them yesterday, which I however look to see changed today.Precious MetalsThe gold ETF formed a bullish candle, tracking the rising miners well. But likewise to the HYG:SHY ratio‘s upper knot message, this one is concerning as well. The key question is about the staying power of GDX outperformance – the key argument for the gold market character having changed with the Mar 08 bottom, which might very well be THE bottom, and not a local one. The decoupling of the yellow metal from rising yields is even more visible now than when I first showed you the weekly $GOLD - TLT overlay chart two weeks ago.Platinum goes down while the copper engine runs (and silver did join in yesterday). This chart sends a message of short-term indecision extending to other commodities, including oil. SummaryS&P 500 is in my view merely testing the buyers‘ resolve, and doesn‘t want to turn the consolidation on declining VIX into a rush to the exit door. Despite the surprisingly early turn against the Fed day move, this doesn‘t represent a trend change or arrival of the dreaded steep correction. The stock market bull is very far from making a top.Gold is again under pressure today, back in the $1,730 zone instead of having cleared it. Understandable given the dollar and Treasuries reversal of yesterday‘s Fed moves, but not rushing to the downside head over heels.

AUDUSD tests key supportIn Australia’s worse-than-expected retail sales, traders saw not a reason to dump, but rather an opportunity to get in for cheap.After the RSI shot into the overbought territory post-FOMC, the indicator cooled off as the price came down to test the support at 0.7700.The subsequent rebound above 0.7770 was a sign that buyers are still in the business. 0.7850 is the intermediate resistance and its clearance could propel the Aussie above 0.79.On the downside, 0.7620 is the major daily support buyers should be aware of.GBPJPY tumbles after over-extensionThe BOJ’s tweak to widen the long-term rates cap to 0.25% from the previous 0.2% came off as a rate hike in disguise, sending the yen higher across the board.Technically speaking, the RSI’s bearish divergence was a warning on an overstretched rally. Zooming out on the daily chart an overbought RSI suggests a pullback towards the 20 or 30-day moving average (149.00).On the hourly chart, successive breaks below 151.30 then 150.80 have confirmed the turnaround. 151.80 is the resistance after the first round of sell-off.USDCAD breaks bearish momentumDespite an improvement in retail data, the Canadian dollar came under pressure as the price of oil tanked.The RSI divergence from last week indicated a loss of momentum in the sell-off. Then a breakout above the resistance at 1.2490 and a bullish MA cross have heightened the odds of a reversal.1.2570 is the next hurdle and a close above that level could trigger a new round of rally. In the case of a retracement, the demand zone between 1.2360 and 1.2460 may see strong buying interest.

Friday‘s session ended in a tie, but it‘s the bears who missed an opportunity to win. Markets however dialed back their doubting of the Fed, which has been apparent in the long-term Treasuries the most. One daily move doesn‘t make a trend change likely though, especially since the Mar pace of TLT decline is on par with Feb‘s and higher than in Jan. While Treasuries paused in early Mar, they‘re now once again as extended vs. their 50-day moving average as before.And that poses a challenge for interest rate sensitive stocks and to some degree also for tech - while I expect value to continue to lead over growth, technology would recover some of the lost ground on rates stabilization. And it‘s true that the $UST10Y move has been a very sharp one, more than tripling from the Aug 2020 lows.Inflation expectations are rising, and so is inflation – PPI under the hood thus far only. Financial assets are rising, perfectly reflected in (this month consolidating) commodity prices. Cost-driven inflation is in our immediate future, not one joined at the hip with job market pressures – that‘s waiting for 2022-3. The story of coming weeks and months is the stimulus avalanche hitting while the Fed still merrily ignores the bond market pressures.And stocks are going to like that – with tech participating, or at least not standing too much in the way, S&P 500 is primed to go to new highs rather shortly. Given the leadership baton being firmly in the hands of value, smallcaps are likely to outperform the 500-strong index over the coming weeks and months. The volatility index is confirming with its general downtrend, commodities, including oil, will be the 2021+ place to be in – just see how fast is Thursday‘s steep correction being reversed. I‘ll be covering black gold more often based on popular demand, so keep your questions and requests coming!The precious metals upswing goes on, and landed the yellow metal comfortably above $1,740. Not too spectacular, but the miners are still painting a bullish picture. I view the increasing appeal of the yellow metal (alongside the bullish sentiment hitting both Wall and Main Street) as part of the inflation trades, as decoupling from rising yields which increased really fast. As gold is arguably the first asset to move in advance of a key policy move, it might be sensing the Fed being forced (i.e. the markets betting against the Fed) to moderate its accomodative policy. Twist, taper – there are many ways short of raising the Fed funds rate that would help put pressure off the sliding long-dated Treasuries, not that these wouldn‘t be susceptible to move higher from oversold levels. And just like the yellow metal frontrunned the Fed before the repo crisis of autumn 2019, we might be seeing the same dynamic today as well.For the cynical and clairvoyant ones, we might sit here in 3-6 months over my notes on „the decoupling that wasn‘t“ - all because rates might snap back from the current almost 1.8% on the 10-year bond.For now, my Friday‘s words remain valid also today:(…) The greatest adjustment is arguably in the inflation projections – what and when is the Fed going to do before inflation raises its ugly head in earnest. There is still time, but the market is transitioning to a higher inflation environment already nonetheless. In moments of uncertainty that hasn‘t yet turned into sell first, ask questions later, let‘s remember the big picture. Plenty of fiscal support is hitting the economy, the Fed is very accomodative, and all the modern monetary theory inspired actions risk overheating the economy later this year. Rates are rising for the good reason of improving economy and its outlook, reflation (economic growth rising faster than inflation and inflation expectations) hasn‘t given way to all out inflation, and stocks with commodities remain in a secular bull market. We‘re in the decade of real assets outperforming paper ones, but that will become apparent only much later into the 2020s.The largely undisturbed rise in commodities got checked yesterday just as stocks did, but the higher timeframe trends (technical and fundamental drivers) hadn‘t changed, which will be apparent once the dust settles.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 Outlook and InternalsFriday‘s session on understandably high volume and with some intraday volatility, closed with prices little changed. While the daily indicators are weakening, I see that as a temporary move that would be followed by higher highs in the index.Market breadth indicators are largely constructive, attesting to the broad base of the current S&P 500 advance. Even on little changed days such as Friday, both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume have risen. I wouldn‘t be concerned with the weak new highs new lows here much as the sectoral structure remains positive – both technology (XLK ETF) and value stocks (VTV ETF) have rejected further intraday declines.Credit MarketsHigh yield corporate bonds have turned higher, and so did their ratio to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY). This is a positive factor for further gains in stock prices.Smallcaps and Emerging MarketsThe Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) isn‘t flashing any warning signs, and continues performing as robustly as the 500-strong index. Given the stage of the bull market we‘re at, smallcaps can be expected to start outperforming at some point in the future, just the same way their underperformance was over since early Nov. As regards emerging markets, their base building accompanied with Friday‘s upswing when faced with rising yields and solid dollar, is encouraging.Gold and SilverThe gold upswing is progressing along, and the daily consolidation in the miners (GDX ETF) isn‘t an issue when compared to a stronger gold performance. Friday was also characterized by a bigger upswing in the junior miners (GDXJ ETF) than in the seniors (GDX ETF), which is positive. The overall impression is of GDX readying a breakout above late Jan and early Feb lows, which bodes well for the precious metals sector as such next – especially given that this decoupling is happening while nominal yields aren‘t truly retreating.Both silver and platinum continue their base building while copper, the key ingredient within the copper to Treasury yields ratio, keeps bullishly consolidating. Silver miners aren‘t sending signals of underperformance, which means that the precious metals upswing dynamics remain still healthy on a closing basis. As regards premarket silver weakness, putting it into context with other markets is key – thus far, it‘s the odd weak one, so I am not jumping to conclusions yet.SummaryS&P 500 trading was undecided on Friday, yet didn‘t bring any clues invalidating the bullish outlook. Volatility remains low, but the put/call ratio has risen, even without a corresponding downswing (or danger of seeing one). The Fed doubting induced pullback appears more than likely in its closing stages.Gold had another resilient week, and the precious metals upswing examination bodes well for the move higher to still continue. Miners are leading, and the yellow metal keeps breaking the spell of higher Treasury yields, supported by copper not yielding ground either.

Despite everyone saying the bottom is in, and that gold and miners are set for takeoff, the signs still point south. The real question: how low can they go?Let’s take a look at some price targets for where the GDX and GDXJ mining ETFs might land up.With the miners attempting to reclaim Pride Rock, it won’t be long until the GDX ETF is singing Hakuna Matata.Rising U.S. Treasury yields? No problem.A reinvigorated USD Index? Who cares.But while strength is often viewed through the eyes of the beholder, the GDX ETF is far from being The Lion King. Sure, its bravery in the face of familiar foes is reason for optimism. However, we’ve seen this movie before. While the recent rally may resemble Mufasa, beneath the surface, the GDX ETF’s tepid price action looks a lot like Simba.If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the GDX ETF moved to the upper level of my initial target range. However, with the Mar. 19 close eliciting a sell signal from the stochastic oscillator (the black and red lines at the bottom section of the chart), a historical reenactment (repeat of the early-2021 performance) could deliver another sharp move lower.In addition, the shape of the early-January swoon is eerily similar to today’s price action. Case in point: back in January, the GDX ETF enjoyed a material daily rally, consolidated , then sunk like a stone. Because of that, the recent move higher and a few days of back-and-forth trading ( consolidation ) is nothing to write home about.To explain, I wrote on Mar. 18:Mining stocks followed gold higher, and they moved to the upper part of my previous target area, but not yet to its upper border. As you may recall, I mentioned the possibility of GDX moving to the $34 - $35 area and my original target for this rally was slightly below $34.The GDX ETF now encountered the strongest combination of resistance areas, while the Stochastic indicator moved above the 80-level. Technically, the situation is now much more bearish in the GDX ETF chart than it was at the beginning of the year. Back in January, the GDX ETF was only at the declining blue resistance line.Now, in addition to being very close to the above-mentioned line it’s also at:The neck level of the previously broken broad head and shoulders patternThe 50-day moving averageThe previous (late-February) highs.Consequently, it’s highly likely that we’ve either just seen a top or one is close at hand.But if we’re headed for a GDX ETF cliff, how far could we fall?Well, while the S&P 500 is a key variable in the equation, there are three reasons why the GDX ETF might form an interim bottom at roughly ~$27.50 (assuming no big decline in the general stock market ):The GDX ETF previously bottomed at the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels. And with the 61.8% level next in line, the GDX ETF is likely to garner similar support.The GDX ETFs late-March 2020 high should also elicit buying pressure.If we copy the magnitude of the late-February/early-March decline and add it to the early-March bottom, it corresponds with the GDX ETF bottoming at roughly $27.50.Keep in mind though: the interim downside target is based on the assumption of a steady S&P 500 . If the stock market plunges, all bets are off. For context, when the S&P 500 plunged in March 2020, the GDX ETF fell below $17, and it took less than two weeks for it to move as low from $29.67. As a result, U.S. equities have the potential to make the miners’ forthcoming swoon all the more painful.If gold forms an interim bottom close to $1,600, this could also trigger a corrective upswing in the mining stocks, but it’s too early to say for sure whether that’s going to be the case or not.Also supporting the potential move, the GDX ETF’s head and shoulders pattern – marked by the shaded green boxes above – signals further weakness ahead.I wrote previously:Ever since the mid-September breakdown below the 50-day moving average , the GDX ETF was unable to trigger a substantial and lasting move above this MA. The times when the GDX was able to move above it were also the times when the biggest short-term declines started.(…)The most recent move higher only made the similarity of this shoulder portion of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern to the left shoulder) bigger. This means that when the GDX breaks below the neck level of the pattern in a decisive way, the implications are likely to be extremely bearish for the next several weeks or months.Turning to the junior gold miners , the GDXJ ETF will likely be the worst performer during the upcoming swoon. Why so? Well, due to its strong correlation with the S&P 500, a swift correction of U.S. equities will likely sink the juniors in the process.What’s more, erratic signals from the MACD indicator epitomizes the GDXJ ETF’s heightened volatility.Please see below:To explain, I wrote on Mar. 12:The above chart is a big red warning flag for beginner investors . The flag reads: “verify the efficiency of a given tool on a given market, before applying it”.The bottom part of the above chart features the MACD indicator . Normally, when the indicator line (black) crosses its signal line (red), we have a signal. If it’s moves above the signal line, it’s a buy sign, and if it moves below it, it’s a sell sign.But.If one actually looks at what happened after the previous “buy signals” in the recent months, they will see that in 5 out of 6 cases, these “buy signals” practically marked the exact tops, thus being very effective sell signals! In the remaining case, it was a good indication that the easy part of the corrective upswing was over.I’m not only describing the above due to its educational value, but because we actually saw a “buy signal” from the MACD, which was quite likely really a sell signal.More importantly though, the MACD indicator is far from a light switch. While false buy signals often precede material drawdowns, the reversals don’t occur overnight. As a result, it’s perfectly normal for the GDXJ ETF to trade sideways or slightly higher for a few days before moving lower. This is what we saw last weekBut how low could the GDXJ ETF go?Well, just like the GDX ETF, the S&P 500 is an important variable . However, absent an equity rout, the juniors could form an interim bottom in the $34 to $36 range and if the stocks show strength, juniors could form the interim bottom higher, close to the $42.5 level. For context, the above-mentioned ranges coincide with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and the GDXJ ETF’s previous highs (including the late-March/early-April high in case of the lower target area). Thus, the S&P 500 will likely need to roll over for the weakness to persist beyond these levels.Some people (especially the permabulls that have been bullish on gold for all of 2021, suffering significant losses – directly and in missed opportunities) will say that the final bottom is already in. And this might very well be the case, but it seems highly unlikely to me. On a side note, please keep in mind that I’m neither a permabull nor a permabear for the precious metals sector, nor have I ever been. Let me emphasize that I’m currently bearish (for the time being), but earlier this month, we went long mining stocks on March 4 and exited this trade on March 11.Another reason (in addition to the myriads of signals coming not only from mining stocks, but from gold, silver, USD Index, stocks, their ratios, and many fundamental observations) is the situation in the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM), which is not yet at the levels that triggered a major reversal in the past. The Index is now back above 27. However, far from a medium-term bottom, the latest reading is still more than 17 points above the 2016 and 2020 lows.Back in 2016 (after the top), and in March 2020, the buying opportunity didn’t present itself until the $BPGDM was below 10.Thus, with sentiment still relatively elevated, it will take more negativity for the index to find the true bottom.The excessive bullishness was present at the 2016 top as well and it didn’t cause the situation to be any less bearish in reality. All markets periodically get ahead of themselves regardless of how bullish the long-term outlook really is. Then, they correct. If the upswing was significant, the correction is also quite often significant.Please note that back in 2016, there was an additional quick upswing before the slide and this additional upswing had caused the $BPGDM to move up once again for a few days. It then declined once again. We saw something similar also in the middle of 2020. In this case, the move up took the index once again to the 100 level, while in 2016 this wasn’t the case. But still, the similarity remains present.Back in 2016, when we saw this phenomenon, it was already after the top, and right before the big decline. Based on the decline from above 350 to below 280, we know that a significant decline is definitely taking place.But has it already run its course?Well, in 2016 and early 2020, the HUI Index continued to move lower until it declined below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The emphasis goes on “below” as this retracement might not trigger the final bottom. Case in point: back in 2020, the HUI Index undershot the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and gave back nearly all of its prior rally. And using the 2016 and 2020 analogues as anchors, this time around, the HUI Index is likely to decline below 231. In addition, if the current decline is more similar to the 2020 one, the HUI Index could move to 150 or so, especially if it coincides with a significant drawdown of U.S. equities.Moreover, let’s keep in mind that an unwinding of NASDAQ speculation could deliver a fierce blow to the gold miners. Back in 2000, when the dot-com bubble burst, the NASDAQ lost nearly 80% of its value, while gold miners lost more than 50% of their value.Please see below:Right now, the two long-term channels above (the solid blue and red dashed lines) show that the NASDAQ is trading well above both historical trends.Back in 1998, the NASDAQ’s last hurrah occurred after the index declined to its 200-day moving average (which was also slightly above the upper border of the rising trend channel marked with red dashed lines).And what happened in the first half of 2020? Well, we saw an identical formation.The similarity between these two periods is also evident if one looks at the MACD indicator . There has been no other, even remotely similar, situation where this indicator would soar so high.Furthermore, and because the devil is in the details, the gold miners’ 1999 top actually preceded the 2000 NASDAQ bubble bursting. It’s clear that miners (the XAU Index serves as a proxy) are on the left side of the dashed vertical line, while the tech stock top is on its right side. However, it’s important to note that it was stocks’ slide that exacerbated miners’ decline. Right now, the mining stocks are already declining, and the tech stocks continue to rally. Two decades ago, tech stocks topped about 6 months after miners. This might spoil the party of the tech stock bulls, but miners topped about 6 months ago…Also supporting the 2000 analogue, today’s volume trends are eerily similar. If you analyze the red arrows on the chart above, you can see that the abnormal spike in the MACD indicator coincided with an abnormal spike in volume. Thus, mounting pressure implies a cataclysmic reversal could be forthcoming.Interestingly, two decades ago, miners bottomed more or less when the NASDAQ declined to its previous lows, created by the very first slide. We have yet to see the “first slide” this time. But, if the history continues to repeat itself and tech stocks decline sharply and then correct some of the decline, when they finally move lower once again, we might see THE bottom in the mining stocks. Of course, betting on the above scenario based on the XAU-NASDAQ link alone would not be reasonable, but if other factors also confirm this indication, this could really take place.Either way, the above does a great job at illustrating the kind of link between the general stock market and the precious metals market that I expect to see also this time. PMs and miners declined during the first part of the stocks’ (here: tech stocks) decline, but then they bottomed and rallied despite the continuation of stocks’ freefall.Even more ominous, the MACD indicator is now eliciting a clear sell signal . And displaying a reading that preceded the dot-com bust in 2000, the NASDAQ Composite – and indirectly, the PMs – continue to sail toward the perfect storm.As further evidence, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio has broken below critical support.Please see below:When the line above is rising, it means that the HUI Index is outperforming the S&P 500. When the line above is falling, it means that the S&P 500 is outperforming the HUI Index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the ratio has broken below its rising support line. For context, the last time a breakdown of this magnitude occurred, the ratio plunged from late-2017 to late-2018. Thus, the development is profoundly bearish.For further context, the ratio is mirroring the behavior that we witnessed in early 2018. After breaking below its rising support line, the ratio rallied back to the initial breakdown level (which then became resistance) before suffering a sharp decline. And with two-thirds of the analogue already complete today – with the ratio rallying back to its initial breakdown level (now resistance) last week – a sharp reversal could occur sooner rather than later.In addition, because last week’s bounce was merely a technical development, the HUI Index’s recent strength is nothing to write home about. What’s more, the early-2018 top in the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio is precisely when the USD Index began its massive upswing. Thus, with history likely to rhyme again, the outlook for the PMs remains profoundly bearish.Moreover, please note that the HUI to S&P 500 ratio broke below the neck level (red, dashed line) of a broad head-and-shoulders pattern and it verified this breakdown by moving temporarily back to it. The target for the ratio based on this formation is at about 0.05 (slightly above it). Consequently, if the S&P 500 doesn’t decline at all (it just closed the week at 3913.10), the ratio at 0.05 would imply the HUI Index at about 196. However, if the S&P 500 declined to about 3,200 or so (its late-2020 lows) and the ratio moved to about 0.05, it would imply the HUI Index at about 160 – very close to its 2020 lows.In conclusion, with the miners’ recent confidence likely to fade, it’s only a matter of time before they show their true colors. With the USD Index raring to go and U.S. Treasury yields seemingly exploding on a daily basis, the PMs recent move higher is akin to swimming against a strengthening current: while they’re making progress, each stroke requires more and more energy. In addition, if a drawdown of U.S. equities enters the equation, the metaphor will be akin to swimming against a tsunami. The bottom line? Long positions in the PMs offers more risk than reward over the next several weeks or so. However, once the medium-term climax is complete, it will be smooth sailing once again.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Next edition of this newsletter, we’re going to do a special on REITs. We will discuss which real estate sectors could see significant recovery after a brutal 2020.Which real estate sectors could be long-term solid bets? There are a few you might not be thinking of, and we will also discuss why REITs could be a great hedge against rising bond yields and inflation scares.Do you realize what Tuesday (Mar. 23) marked? One year since the market bottomed. Can you believe that it’s already been a year? Calling it a roller coaster is an understatement.One of the most crucial market concepts is that the market never looks back. It is a forward-looking instrument. Talking about the past as it relates to the market really doesn’t do anyone any good.However, after the year we’ve had, it’s essential to take a breath, reflect, and see what lessons we can learn from.Ethan Wolff-Mann, a Senior Writer for Yahoo! Finance, put out a great article, “ What we have learned in the 12 months since ‘the bottom ’” and discusses several key points:‘Every crisis is the same’Panic can hurt a portfolioYou genuinely don’t know what’s going to happenRebalancing comes out as a huge winnerAs we sit here a year later, we can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. Vaccines are weeks away from being available to all adults over 16 in the U.S., while COVID numbers continue to drop. But we are still confronting the reality of a pandemic that is still raging in Europe and other parts of the world. Inflation signs are flashing, and unstable bond yields are scaring tech investors every few days. But keep the above lessons in mind.My personal biggest takeaway from the last year that I have applied since the several market downturns we’ve had thus far in 2021? Nobody can predict the future and never ever try to time the market. Many investors a year ago didn’t stick it out through the volatility and lost out. Some panic sold near the bottom and never bought back in.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:A year after we bottomed, there is optimism but signs of concern. The market has to figure itself out. More volatility is likely, but I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, will happen any time soon.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Russell 2000- Time to Pounce?Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)I kicked myself for not calling BUY on the Russell after seeing a minor downturn during the second half of February. I also realized I may have broken my own rule about “not timing the market.” I’ve wanted to buy the Russell 2000 forever but never thought it dipped hard enough (whenever it did). I was waiting for it to at least approach a correction.But once I looked at the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) chart, I had an epiphany. I noticed that almost every time it touched or minorly declined below its 50-day moving average, it reversed.The chart does not lie. Look at it above. Excluding the recovery in April from last year’s crash, 5 out of the previous 6 times the Russell did this with its 50-day, it saw a sharp reversal. The only time it didn’t was in October 2020, when the distance between its 50-day and its 200-day moving average was a lot more narrow.Fast forward to Tuesday (Mar. 23). The Russell 2000 saw its worst day since February 25- and I loved every second of it. I felt almost similar to how I felt over the weekend during March Madness when I correctly called 13 seed Ohio to upset 4 seed defending NCAA champion Virginia. Finally, after weeks of waiting for a time to pounce on the Russell 2000 and missing golden opportunities, I think the time has come. We’re back right below its 50-day.Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world bode well for small-caps in 2021. I think this is something you have to consider for the Russell 2000 and maybe overpay for.I’m finally switching this to a BUY.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as inflation fears and why I love emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Stocks reversed yesterday, and the close below 3,900 indicates short-term weakness instead of muddling through in a tight range. Especially the sectoral reaction to still retreating yields, is worrying. Yesterday‘s session means a reality check for prior reasonable expectations:(…) The index is likely to advance, but the engine is going to be tech this time – not value stocks. I view this as a deceptive, fake strength in the bull market leadership passing over to value inevitably next. That‘s why I expect the S&P 500 advance to unfold still, a bit rockier than it could have been otherwise. Tech faltered yesterday, and neither the other sectors were convincing. Rotation within stocks didn‘t work yesterday or the day before, and that‘s short-term concerning for the stock market bull health – as in, the path ahead would be truly rockier, and accompanied by brief, sharp selloffs such as the one bringing S&P 500 futures to 3,865 moments ago. The bull market isn‘t though over by a long shot – all we‘re going through is a recalibration of the rising inflation – I still stand by my year end call for $SPX at 4200.It‘s commodities that are under the greatest pressure now, and the copper and oil signals doesn‘t bode well for the immediate future. These are likely starting consolidation of post-Nov 2020 sharp gains – they are no longer frontrunning inflation expectations. This has also consequences for silver, which is more vulnerable here than the yellow metal now.Gold is again a few bucks above its volume profile $1,720 support zone, and miners aren‘t painting a bullish picture. Resilient when faced with the commodities selloff, but weak when it comes to retreating nominal yields. The king of metals looks mixed, but the risks to the downside seem greater than those of catching a solid bid.That doesn‘t mean a steep selloff in a short amount of time just ahead – rather continuation of choppy trading with bursts of selling here and there. What could change my mind? Decoupling from rising TLT yields returning – in the form of gold convincingly rising when yields move down. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 OutlookWhile yesterday‘s volume isn‘t consistent with a true reversal, it still says we‘re not done with the downside, which however shouldn‘t reach all too far. Force index on the other hand, looks as starting its decline, so the short-term picture is mixed. Whether the 50-day moving average test would lead to a rebound, is an open question – but I think it will.Credit MarketsThe high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio gave up all of yesterday‘s gains, but isn‘t leaving stocks as extended here. Much depends upon whether squaring the risk-on bets would continue, or not. Both stocks and the ratio appear consolidating here, and not rolling over to the downside.Technology and FinancialsTechnology (XLK ETF) showing weakness while financials (XLF ETF) aren‘t yet ready to run – that‘s a fair description of the moment. What‘s most concerning, is the tech weakness on still rising long-term Treasuries.Treasuries and Inflation ExpectationsVolume behind the TLT upswing is drying up, and S&P 500 sectors are sensing another turn to the downside. Utilities aren‘t getting anywhere while $NYFANG is as weak as could reasonably be, which doesn‘t bode well for stocks.Commodities showed daily resilience as inflation trades meekly turned around – but make no mistake, inflation expectations runup appear getting questioned on a short-term basis, and the more volatile commodities feel that.Gold and MinersThe precious metals sector remains under pressure, and the renewed and visible miners underperformance highlights that. Yesterday‘s gold upswing happened on lower volume than the preceding downswing, adding to the woes. Silver though remains more vulnerable to the downside than gold, and miners aren‘t painting a bullish picture at all.SummaryWith the tech underperformance returning to the fore, the S&P 500 is short-term exposed, but the momentarily elevated put/call ratio looks as marking not too much downside left as prices approach the 50-day moving average. Once value stocks turn upwards, the stock bull market would be running again.Until gold and silver miners show outperformance again, both metals remain vulnerable to short-term downside – silver more so than gold, which could catch a bid as a safe haven play. But should gold strength return on declining yields, that would be another missing ingredient in the precious metals bull market.

While everyone was paying attention to the FOMC, Gold & Silver, and the Treasury Yields, it appears the recent commodity rally trend took a big hit on Thursday, March 18, 2021.  Our guess is that the FOMC statement did nothing to support the continued commodity price rally as the US Fed continued with near-zero interest rates and economic support through 2023.  The rally in commodities was likely based on expectations of a much stronger economic recovery as the COVID vaccines take the pressure off economic shutdowns and further restrictive economic conditions, but that may not be the case.Commodities Rollover May Be Misleading TradersThe rollover in commodities suggests the markets are reacting to renewed expectations, post-FOMC.  They may continue to consolidate near support (near $16.30) before attempting to move higher as traders digest the Fed comments and fall back into economic recovery expectations.  Any move below $16.00 as seen on the chart below may likely prompt a consolidation phase within historical support channels (see the Weekly DBC chart below).Commodities Attempting to Base Near SupportThe following weekly DBC chart shows how the COVID-19 event collapsed commodity prices and how they've just recently rallied back to levels above the pre-COVID price range – above $15.00. When we start to look at longer-term trends, we start to see a number of key price levels that become important technical factors related to future trends.  The support levels that setup in 2019, pre-COVID, are still very valid current support levels for commodities.  If a continued economic recovery takes place, DBC will likely find support above $15 and then begin another rally phase targeting prices above $19 to $20.  This current rollover in commodity prices may be nothing more than a pause in price before another rally starts.Commodities Break Major Monthly Price ChannelLastly, looking at the Monthly DBC chart, below, highlights the very long-term price trends and what becomes immediately evident is that price has recently broken above the RED downward sloping price channel line. The momentum of the price rally that recently broke this downward price channel was strong enough to pierce this downward sloping channel – and it would not be uncommon for price to pause after this price breach.  The YELLOW support levels, from the weekly DBC chart, continue to confirm the $15 to $16 as active support.  Any price rotation or pause near this level will likely hold within this support range before attempting another move higher.Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals nowso you don’t miss our next special report!We targeted price lows from 2012~2014 as a potential upside price target if the rally phase continues.  After breaking the major downward sloping price trend, it is very likely that once DBC prices rally above $18.50, a continued rally phase may target the $25 price level with an extended run over many months.Historically, a rally in commodities does not always prompt a rally in the US major indexes.  In 2007~08, commodities rallied extensively while the US stock market collapsed.  In 2010~11, commodities rallied as the US stock market rallied more than 27%.  In 2016~2018, commodities rallied as the US stock market rallied more than 62%.  The current breakout above the RED longer-term price channel suggests we may see a stock market rally aligned with a commodity price rally based on the recent comments by the US Fed.  Unless a major credit market or other catastrophic event takes place, we believe this upward trend in commodities may prompt an extended recovery rally in both commodities and the US stock market.Don’t miss the opportunities to profit from the broad market sector rotations we expect this year, which will be an incredible year for traders of my Best Asset Now (BAN) strategy.  You can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and manage positions for maximum profits from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets, and this year we see a change in leading sectors taking place from what they were last year.For those who believe in the power of trading sectors that show relative strength and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day, let my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service do all the work for you with educational daily market video, updates, research, and my trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist, which ranks the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my subscribers.Happy Trading!

Positions in the USDX are shifting from shorts to longs, so gold investors should look closely. Why? Because it’s an inverse relationship.We’ve discussed the negative correlation between the dollar and the precious metals many times before, but it can never be discussed enough, particularly as the situation develops and the outlook for the USD Index becomes more positive.Once the USD Index lands some knockout punches, the precious metals will be hurting, as they tend to do when the dollar rises. Gold, silver and the miners will eventually rise, but for the medium-term, they are still in bearish territory.Counted out, counted down and rarely counted on, investors threw in the USD Index’s towel long before the fight even began. However, after shaking the cobwebs and landing a few haymakers, the greenback’s Rocky-like comeback is proof that ‘it ain’t over till it’s over.’Let’s look at the factors influencing rise of the USD Index as well as some of the historical patterns:1. Repositioning from Short to LongNow, with thousands of screaming fans chanting “USD, USD,” the eye of the tiger could be eying another move higher. As evidence, if you analyze the chart below, you can see that non-commercial (speculative) traders have quietly repositioned from net-short to net-long.To explain, notice how oversold periods in 2014 and 2018 – where net-speculative short interest as a percentage of total open interest was extremely high – preceded sharp rallies in the USD Index? Thus, with 2021 the most extreme on record, the forthcoming rally should be significant.How significant? Well, let’s take a look at how things developed in the past – after all, history tends to rhyme.Let’s focus on what happened when the net speculative positions were significantly (!) negative and then they became significantly (!) positive, so without paying attention to tiny moves (like the one that we saw last summer), let’s focus on the more meaningful ones (like the one that we see right now – the net positions just became visibly positive – over 16%, after being very negative for quite some time.In short, that’s how the following profound rallies started:The big 2008 rally (over 16 index points)The big 2009 – 2010 rally (over 14 index points)The 2011 – 2012 rally (over 11 index points)The 2013 rally (“only” over 5 index points)The big 2014 – 2015 rally (over 20 index points)The 2018 rally (over 15 index points)The current rally started at about 89, so if the “normal” (the above shows what is the normal course of action) happens, the USD Index is likely to rally to at least 94, but since the 5-index point rally seems to be the data outlier, it might be better to base the target on the remaining 5 cases. Consequently, one could expect the USD Index to rally by at least 11 – 20 index points, based on the net speculative positions alone. This means the upside target area of about 105 – 114.Consequently, a comeback to the 2020 highs is not only very likely, but also the conservative scenario.2. The 10-Year Treasury YieldAdding to the momentum, in 2020, the USD Index sat out the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield’s ferocious upswing. Defying historical precedent, a bottom and subsequent move higher in the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has coincided with a rise in the USD Index 80% of the time since 2003 . But now in sync, 2021 has been a much different story. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the USD Index has been moving in lockstep with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield since the New Year.3. Reclaiming 200-Day Moving AverageIn addition, not only has the USD Index broke above its previous highs, but the basket just reclaimed its 200-day moving average (which is often indicative of a long-term uptrend). As a result, the greenback continues to float like a butterfly and sting like a bee .For historical context, after recapturing its 200-day MA in 2018, the USD Index only suffered mild pullbacks before surging above 95. As such, with the mid-2020 highs the USD Index’s next opponent, 94.5 is unlikely to put up much of a fight.Keep in mind though: in the very-short term, the USD Index could move lower and retest its prior 2021 highs. However, the damage should be minimal, and it wouldn’t invalidate the USD Index’s medium-term breakout. Because of this, the outlook remains profoundly bearish for the gold, silver , and mining stocks over the medium term. If you analyze the table below, you can see that the precious metals tend to move inversely to the U.S. dollar.4. The History Really Rhymes: The 2017-2018 UpswingBut saving the best for last, the 2017-2018 analogue could be the USD Index’s knockout punch. With this version likely to be titled “The Resurgence: Part 2,” while history often rhymes, it’s rare for it to rhyme with this level of specificity .Please see below:Even more revealing, while it took less than 118 days for the USD Index to move from peak to trough in 2020-2021, the uprising could occur at a much faster pace. In 2018, the USD Index’s breakout above its 50-day moving average is exactly what added gasoline to the USDX’s 2018 fire. And after the 2018 breakout, the USDX surged back to its previous high. Today, that level is 94.5 .Furthermore, in 2017-2018, it also took 82 days for the USDX to form a final bottom (the number of days between the initial bottom and the final bottom) and the duration amounts to 21.19% of the overall timeframe. If we applied a similar timeframe to today’s move, then the USD Index should have bottomed on Feb. 12. It actually bottomed (finally) on Feb. 25, which was just 8 trading days away from the former date. Taking into account the sizes of the moves that preceded the previous declines (they took approximately one year to complete), this is extremely close and an excellent confirmation that the self-similar pattern remains intact.Also noteworthy, as the USDX approached its final bottom in 2017-2018, gold traded sideways. Today, however, gold has been in a downward spiral and it doesn’t seem that the decline is over. From a medium-term perspective, the yellow metal’s behavior is actually more bearish than it was in 2017-2018.And while the self-similar pattern is already playing out as predicted, please read below for further explanation as to why the USD Index’s current and historical price action remains a spitting image:It’s not true that there were no pullbacks during the 2018 rally. There were, but they were simply too small to be visible from the long-term point of view.The first notable pullback took place in early May 2018, and it contributed to a corrective upswing in the precious metals market. To be precise, the USD Index declined after rallying for 56 trading days, but gold rallied earlier – 51 trading days after the USD Index’s final bottom. The USDX’s immediate-top formed 16 trading days after its final bottom, and gold’s bottom formed 10 trading days after the USD’s final bottom.Comparing this to the size of the previous decline in terms of the trading days, it was:51 – 56 trading days / 283 trading days = 18.02% - 19.79%10 – 16 trading days / 283 trading days = 3.53% - 5.65%Also indicating a messy divorce, when the USD Index turned a short-term decline into consolidation in mid-2018, can you guess what happened next? Well, the USD Index moved significantly higher, while gold moved significantly lower.Please see below:Moreover, when comparing the pairs’ behavior in mid-2018 to today, it’s ominously similar.Please see below:For additional context, I also wrote on Mar. 10:Let’s examine the current situation: the preceding decline lasted for 200 trading days and there were 41 – 42 trading days between the final USDX bottom and the short-term reversals in gold and USDX. Comparing this to the final USDX bottom, we get 7 – 8 trading days.Applying the previous percentages to the length of the most recent medium-term decline in the USD Index provides us with the following:18.02% - 19.79% x 200 trading days = ~36 - ~40 trading days3.53% - 5.65% x 200 trading days = ~7 - ~11 trading daysThe above estimation of about 36 – 40 trading days almost perfectly fits the current 41 – 42-day delay, and the estimation of about 7 – 11 trading days almost perfectly fits the current delay of 7 – 8 trading days.In other words, the analogy to the 2018 performance does not only remain intact – it actually perfectly confirms the validity of the current corrective upswing. Once again, it’s very likely just a pullback, not a big trend reversal.Likewise, a potentially bearish pattern that I have been monitoring – where the USD Index’s price action from July to October 2020 mirrored the price action from December 2020 to February/March 2021– has officially been broken . With the USD Index’s medium-term breakout trumping the former, the potentially bearish pattern has been invalidated and the USD Index is likely to continue its ascension.But to what end?Well, if we look back at 2020, the USD Index attempted to recapture its previous highs. But lacking the upward momentum, the failure was followed by a sharp move lower. Today, however, the USD Index has broken above its previous highs and the greenback verified the breakout by consolidating, moving back toward the previous lows and rising once again. Now, the USD Index is visibly above its previous highs .Taken together, and given the magnitude of the 2017-2018 upswing , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. And in the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term.In conclusion, the USD Index went from being on the ropes to winning the crowd. And with the momentum building and the adrenaline rising, it’s only a matter of time before the USD Index lands another haymaker. Moreover, given the precious metals’ negative correlation with the U.S. dollar – combined with the fact that technicals, fundamentals and sentiment are now riding with the greenback – an uprising could leave the gold, silver, and mining stocks battered and bruised. However, after a tough period of soul searching, the precious metals will regain the heavyweight championship once again. Or, if one wants to put it in more technical terms, gold, silver, and miners are likely to start a massive rally, but only after declining visibly first.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

In fact, Bitcoin is a decentralized global digital network which in essence is transforming analog assets into digital assets. It has been growing at 200% a year. Now after 12 years in existence Bitcoin is a digital trillion-dollar network.What supports its long-term stability is that its decentralization and transparency are immune against policy. While we typically at the mercy of policymakers and as such a middleman that can manipulate the use of a payment method, with Bitcoin, the individual is genuinely safe. Looking at the world around us where it is hard to find any field not infiltrated by groups who seek to take advantage, manipulate, and flat out lie, it is a true need one can trust a store of value to benchmark against.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Our chart from last week’s chartbook:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 23rd, 2021.We posted the above short to midterm chart prediction in our last week’s chartbook publication.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, As anticipated-another leg up:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 29th, 2021.The market unfolded quite as planned. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Health and sustainability:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2021.If we analyze Bitcoin prices advancing from last August’s lows, we can find an intact Elliot impulse wave pattern. The Health and sustainability of this trend are derived from the three propulsion proportions. While advancing strongly in the first wave with a 323 % advancement, the pace cooled down to a 99% second leg upward. These stunning advancements followed yet again by a more moderate increase of 44% to its recent all-time highs. This abstinence of a blow-off top or run-away train allows us to believe that prices could march higher.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin is invaluable, Projections:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2021.When examining projections, we like to stack odds by looking at both a time and a price component. The above chart shows this blend using a time cycle approach (vertical lines) and a Fibonacci extension probability measurement. Stacking these projection tools would lead us to a price target near ninety-seven thousand for the mid-next year. Our “conservative” projection is marked with the yellow circle on the top right of the chart.Bitcoin is invaluable:Looking around, and you will find that the Dollar is what around the world most value storage is bench-marked against. It seems frightening to us since the Dollar has no gold standard or otherwise intrinsic value that we still give it this much power only based on a belief. With economic powers shifting towards the east and a lack of political and economic leadership, beliefs can change, and as such, currency stability is endangered. Hedging your store of value through an instrument that holds intrinsic value based on principles over beliefs seems more than logical.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 30th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Neither the Suez Canal blockade nor the SLR exemption’s expiration should significantly affect gold, whose price is likely to be soon shaped by other factors.Do you think you’ve had a bad day? If yes, then imagine the helmsman of the Ever Given who somehow managed to get his giant container ship stuck in the Suez Canal, disrupting global trade and causing economic damage worth millions of dollars each hour. Sure, the blockade won’t sink the global economy (pun intended), but it won’t help it either. After all, the Suez Canal is the gateway between Europe and Asia, through which around 12-13% of world trade flows, as does 30% of the world's daily shipping container freight. So, every day of obstruction disrupted the movement of goods worth about $9 billion, having a significant impact on global trade.Of course, the world won’t end, and ships can always choose an alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa, but this route takes several days longer. So, the blockade has significantly delayed the consignments of goods and fuel, and exacerbated the already pandemic-disturbed supply channels. As a reminder, there are shortages of containers, semi-conductors, and other inputs and finished goods, that have significantly lengthened delivery times and pushed prices up. Although the blockade of the Suez Canal was temporary, it added additional disruption on top of existing supply problems. Meanwhile, the central banks and governments interpret everything as demand problems that need to be addressed through easy monetary policy and loose fiscal policy .The accident of the Ever Given won’t significantly impact gold prices. And, as the chart below shows, we haven’t seen any substantial effects so far.However, the blockade could remind investors (if they somehow managed to forget amid the pandemic ) that black swans exist and fly low, and it’s reasonable to have a portion of one’s investment portfolio in safe havens such as gold (for instance, the insurance part of the portfolio ). Additionally, the upward pressure on prices (although limited) could strengthen the appeal of gold as an inflation hedge , especially considering that officially reported inflation is likely to jump next month because of the low base effect and all the recent supply disruptions.Fed Allows for Expiration of SLRAnd now for something completely different. The Federal Reserve Board announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio , or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. What does this mean for the U.S. economy and the gold market?The SLR is a regulation that requires the largest U.S. banks to hold a minimum level of capital. The ratio says how much equity capital the banks have to hold relative to their total leverage exposure (3% in the case of large banks and 5% in the case of top-tier banks). To ease strains in the Treasury market during the Covid-19 epidemic , the Fed temporarily excluded the U.S. Treasuries and central bank reserves from the calculation. In other words, banks could increase their holdings of government bonds and central bank reserves without raising equity capital.But now, with the exemption expired, their equity capital will be calculated again relative to the banks’ total leverage exposure, including Treasuries and central bank reserves. So, it might be the case that the banks will have to either increase the amount of equity (which is rather unlikely) or reduce the amount of government bonds. And if they sell Treasuries, it would add to the upward pressure on the bond yields . This would prove rather negative for gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset.However, it doesn’t have to be the case. I mean here that the U.S. eight large and systematically important banks wouldn’t fall below their 5% regulatory minimum. Actually, they are said to have a roughly 25% buffer above minimum thresholds, so the expiry of the SLR exemptions doesn’t have to significantly affect the functioning of the Treasury market, at least not immediately. Hence, the impact of the expiration of the SLR exemption could have limited effect on the gold market , if any.It seems that the price of the yellow metal will be rather shaped by the real interest rates , the U.S. dollar, inflation, the level of confidence in the U.S. economy, etc. In the short-term, the focus on economic recovery could continue the downward pressure on gold prices, but in the long-term, the stagflation theme could resurface and push the price of the yellow metal up.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

EURUSD capped by bearish moving averages The US dollar continues to advance across the board supported by improving economic outlook. After a short pause along the 20 and 30-hour moving averages, the sell-off renewed below 1.1760. A further drop below the psychological level of 1.1700 could drive the price towards 1.1600, a critical support level for the ten-month-long rally on the daily chart. As the RSI falls into the oversold area, a limited rebound could be met with selling pressure between the moving averages and 1.1775. NZDUSD weighed by bearish MA cross The New Zealand dollar is still struggling near its five-week lows as the appetite for growth-sensitive currencies fades. The kiwi has had a timid rally after the RSI went sharply into an oversold situation. It was probably due to profit-taking rather than fresh dip-buying. Buyers’ failure to hold onto 0.7000 suggests a lack of commitment after the daily chart showed a bearish MA cross. 0.6940 is the immediate support and a bearish breakout could trigger a new wave of sell-off towards 0.6900. XAGUSD sees limited bounce Silver slipped again amid rising long-term US yields as holding the precious metal would incur a higher opportunity cost. The price has retreated to January’s low at 24.00. Profit-taking from short-term traders may help lift bids while an oversold RSI recovers into neutrality. However, sentiment would remain bearish as long as the price stays below 24.80. Trend followers are likely to sell into strength in case of a rebound near the moving averages. A drop below 23.60 could trigger an extended sell-off into the 22s.

Stepping up the ladder to 4000 The stock market keeps steadily going upwards towards the mark of 4000. While there have been and will be inevitable dropdowns below the support of the 50-MA, the overall trend is a clear uptrend. What's important is that the recent turbulence was not as high as the one in September-October - that's a sure sign of true recovery and stabilization of the economy seen in the corporate environment. Having that as a background, let's review particular stocks now. Tweeting down No one can deny Elon Musk the liberty to say whatever he finds necessary on Twitter. That doesn't mean it does any good to the valuation of Tesla, though. Sometimes we may even think that he does it intentionally like that time when he said that Tesla's value is too high - and the stock dropped. The announcement that Tesla may be bought with Bitcoins didn't prevent the stock price from going down. Partially, because of another controversial tweet about unions that the US authorities are considering as a possible threat to labor union participants. On the other side, there was another comment that Elon Musk tweeted - and eventually deleted is that very soon, Tesla may weigh more than Apple. Whatever there is, the support of 550 is there, and it may be reached again. At the same time, a bounce upwards is also possible. For this reason, if you're considering taking a rather risky mid-term position, you may think of buying Tesla - that's if you're ready to hold out enough time until it starts recovering. Because when it does, then from the current $600 to the all-time high of $900 it's a 50% value growth potential. Chinese affairs Alibaba is now under double pressure. First, Jack Ma's company is under direct pressure, scrutiny, and counteraction from the side of the Chinese authorities. Second, strategically, global geopolitical tension between China and the "Western world" growing around the Uyghur region is making the future of Alibaba even more cloudy than it is now. In any case, the stock is now at nine-month lows. Moreover, it trades above the support zone of 215-220. Technically, a bounce upwards is very possible. If it happens, then there is the entire $100 above to meet the all-time high again. Potentially, it's an almost 50% value gain possibility - that may take a few months, though. Therefore, Alibaba may be a risky buy for a long-term strategy. Or, observe it further as fundamentally, grounds are shaking beneath Jack Ma's feet. Beating everyone Shooting up from $50 to $54, Coca-Cola performed as well as never since the start of the recovery. Definitely, it's one of the best performers of the S&P 500 so far. Fundamentally, it has a very good business outlook. Sales are going better and better, most observers suggest it's a buy stock - for a long-term scenario. For the short-term, though, you have to take into account that this growth was really aggressive. Not that it never happens in the stock market but this stock has been oscillating between the two sides of the indicated channel since March. Currently, it's in an upswing. However, observe it closely as it approaches $55. At or slighly above that mark, it may reverse to do a technical correction - in this case, it may go all the way down to $51-52. Therefore, observe possible reversal pattern in the shotrt-term - they may occur at any time. Remember that you can trade stocks not only through Metatrader 5 but also through the FBS Trader app!

Confirmed, unconfirmed, verified, and invalidated: breakouts and breakdowns are now ubiquitous. And the implications are bearish for gold.Let’s start today’s analysis with a discussion of the key market that everyone is interested in – gold.Gold’s Failed Breakout – A Sell SignIn short, gold just invalidated its small breakout above the declining blue resistance line. The previous breakout was small and thus it required a confirmation. It never got one, and instead gold plunged, invalidating the move. This is yet another sell sign that we saw.It also serves as further proof that ever since the beginning of the year, gold permabulls (many people continue to claim that gold can only go up, even now) were destroying value rather than creating it. On a side note, we have nothing against checking out the work of other analysts, but we encourage you to check if someone was both bullish and bearish on a given market. If they never changed their mind, it seems that you can save some time by not reading what they come up with, as you already know the outcome. Besides it’s not like they would prepare you in advance for any decline (in case of permabulls).Getting back to the current market situation – since gold moved lower quite visibly yesterday (Mar. 30), and even (almost) reached its early-March high, it might be tempting to think that the decline is over. This seems unlikely in my opinion.The less important reason for the above is visible right on the above chart. Earlier this month, gold topped very close to its triangle-vertex-based reversal. The previous two triangle-vertex-based reversals also triggered declines. So, if something similar triggered similar moves, then it might be worth checking how big did the previous declines end up being.Both previous 2021 declines were followed by quite visible declines. The one that started in early Jan. took gold over $130 lower, and the one that started in mid-Feb. took gold over $170 lower. The current decline started at $1,754.20, so if the history is to rhyme (as it often does), gold would be likely to decline to at least $1,584 - $1,624. This target area corresponds quite well to the support provided by the early Mar. and early Apr. 2020 lows.The more important reasons due to which it seems likely that the decline will continue are: the rally in the USD Index and the rally in the long-term interest rates.The USD’s RallyAs far as the latter is concerned, it seems unlikely that we’ll see the Fed stepping into action with another Operation Twist until the general stock market slides. Otherwise, such a big intervention might seem uncalled for. Consequently, the long-term rates are likely to rally some more. And gold is likely to respond by declining further.As far as the USD Index in concerned, it just moved to new yearly highs, and since the nearest strong resistance is relatively far (from the short-term point of view), it seems that the move higher will continue with only small corrections along the way.The USD Index has not only confirmed the breakout above its Feb. highs, but it even managed to break above the rising red support line. This line, along with the rising black line based on the Feb. and mid-March lows, creates a rising wedge pattern that was already broken to the upside. The moves that tend to follow such breakouts often are as big as the size of the wedge. I used red, dashed lines for this target-determining technique. Based on it, the USD Index is likely to rally to about 96.65.The above target is slightly above the mid-2020 highs, so it might seem more conservative to set the upside target at those highs, close to the 94.5-94.8 area. The mid-2020 highs are likely to trigger a breather, but it doesn’t have to be the case that the USD Index pauses below these highs. Conversely, it could be the case that the USD Index first breaks above the mid-2020 highs and consolidates after the breakout. In fact, that’s what it did with regard to the breakout above the Feb. 2021 highs.Consequently, I’m broadening the target area for the USD Index, so that it now encompasses also the more bullish scenario in which the USDX takes out the mid-2020 highs before consolidating.Either way, we’re currently in the “easy part” of the USD’s rally. Even if it’s going to consolidate at or below the mid-2020 highs, it’s still very likely to first get there, and this implies a move higher by at least another full index point. This means that the gold price is likely to decline some more before finding short-term support. The scenario fits very well with the situation that I outlined based on the gold chart earlier today.Silver LossesSilver just broke to new 2021 lows. Everyone buying silver (futures) in Jan. / Feb. is now at a loss and in an increasingly inconvenient situation.Why would this be important? Because it means that everyone who jumped into the silver market with both feet based on just very brief research (“research”?) which in many cases was following instructions provided at various forums is in a losing position right now.Sometimes the losses are small – for the very few, who were early, but in some cases, the losses are already quite visible – especially for those, who bought close to $30.Why is this important? Because it emphasizes the need to verify the quality of the information that one chooses to act on, and because it’s a tipping point after which the previous buyers are likely to start becoming sellers, thus adding to decline’s sharpness.The “new silver buyers” losses are not huge yet, but after another move lower, they will likely become such and the sales from those buyers would likely make these declines even bigger.When everyone and their brother was particularly bullish on silver a few months ago, I wrote that they might be quite right, but the timing was terrible. So far, the losses for those, who bought silver earlier this year are not that big, but, in my opinion, they are likely to become much bigger in the following weeks.Of course, I expect silver price to soar in the following years (well over $100), but not without plunging first in the short and/or medium term.The Miners’ Relative StrengthLet’s take a look at the mining stocks. In yesterday’s analysis , I explained the likely reason behind the temporary strength in the mining stocks, and I emphasized that it’s not likely to last. This explanation remains up-to-date:Ultimately, it’s never possible to reply to the “why did a given market move” other than that “because buyers won over sellers”. It’s not particularly informative, though. The reason that seems most likely to me is that it was… a purely technical development that “needed” to happen for a formation to be complete.This hypothesis would explain also one odd thing that happened yesterday. Namely, while the GDX closed the day slightly higher, the GDXJ ended the day lower. This would make sense if the general stock market declined ( junior mining stocks – GDXJ tend to follow its lead more than seniors – GDX) – but the point is that the general stock market ended yesterday’s session basically flat (declining by mere 0.09% decline).“Ok, so what kind of formation are miners completing?”Quite likely the head and shoulders formations. The reason for yesterday’s underperformance of the GDXJ would be the fact that in case of this ETF’s head-and-shoulders formation , the neckline is descending much more visibly. These formations are more visible on the 4-hour charts – so, let’s zoom in.Currently – based on yesterday’s (Mar. 30) closing prices – both formations are completed, and while it could still be the case that both ETFs move back to their previous necklines to verify the breakdowns, the implications are already bearish for the short term.The price targets based on those formations are $29.6 and $40.7 for the GDX and GDXJ, respectively. However, let’s keep in mind that the H&S-based targets should be viewed as “minimum” targets, not necessarily the final ones.All in all, the technical picture currently favors lower precious metals (and mining stock) prices over the next several weeks. In my view, this is either the middle or the final part of the very final decline in the precious metals market, before it takes off based on multiple positive factors of long-term nature.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Biden just announced an ambitious and expensive infrastructure plan. Will it rebuild gold?Yesterday (Mar. 31), President Joe Biden the big infrastructure plan , the second major legislative initiative after the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan passed in early March. The proposal includes about $2.2 trillion in new spending over eight years, boosting government expenditures even further .Despite the name, the plan assumes that only a part would be spent on infrastructure. To be more specific, Biden wants to spend $600 billion on transportation infrastructure (such as bridges, roads, airports, etc.), and more than $300 billion on improving utilities infrastructure (drinking-water pipes, electric grids, broadband). He also proposes to put more than $300 billion into building and upgrading housing and schools, $400 billion to care for elderly and disabled Americans, and almost $600 billion in research and development infrastructure, manufacturing, and job training.That doesn’t sound bad at all (after all, infrastructure is critical), but there is a catch. The plan assumes that all the spending will be financed by tax hikes. Biden proposes to raise the U.S. corporate tax rate from the 21 percent set by Trump to 28 percent, as well as to eliminate all fossil fuel industry subsidies and loopholes. So, according to the proposal, the tax reforms will add about 0.5 percent of GDP in fiscal revenues, which are believed to fully pay for investments within the next 15 years.Implications for GoldWhat does Biden’s infrastructure plan mean for the U.S. economy? Well, I won’t argue that American infrastructure needs upgrading. There is a bipartisan agreement here. The problem is, however, that government spending programs are usually inefficient, and cost more than initially planned . Additionally, the plan seeks to give the government a significant role in new important areas, and to introduce anti-business and pro-labor unions regulations.So, generally speaking, the proposal stems from Biden’s progressive belief that government can and should be a primary driver for economic growth, which is just plain wrong. As both economic theory and empirics show, the private sector is inherently more efficient than the bureaucrats (you can ask people in the former communist countries whether it’s true). Such a revolution in U.S. economic policy will weaken the allocative efficiency and hamper the long-term pace of economic growth.Last but not least, the idea to raise taxes when the economy hasn’t fully recovered from the pandemic recession is controversial, at least. Higher taxes will weaken corporate America and redistribute resources from the private sector to the public sector, negatively affecting the economy in the long-run. As well, I don’t believe that the tax revenues will fully finance the plan, so the fiscal deficits will increase further, ballooning even more the already mammoth pile of federal debt (see the chart below).And how will Biden’s infrastructure plan affect the gold market? Well, in the long-run, higher government spending, public debts, inflation , and corporate taxes should hamper the pace of economic growth and weaken corporate America and Wall Street. Hence, the proposal could be positive for gold prices, at least from the fundamental point of view .However, Biden’s bold actions seem to be welcomed so far by the financial markets. This is because the fiscal stimulus – and the rollout of vaccination – is strengthening the risk appetite. There are also hopes that the “go big” approach will allow the American economy to recover more swiftly than previously expected and quicker than its European peers. These expectations could propel the bond yields further up (see the chart below), also strengthening the U.S. dollar, and creating additional downward pressure on the gold prices .Therefore, although the Fed will have to step in and ease its monetary policy if the interest rates rise too much, the bond yields have room to move higher. This upward trend could continue to put gold under pressure , unless the yellow metal finds a way to diverge from its relationship with interest rates, for example, by attracting more investors worried about inflation.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Silver’s price faces just the same strain. Much influenced by various strings pulling. It is essential to stay focused on the prime fundamentals and the clear long-term case for the shiny metal. Numbers for demand are overwhelmingly positive, and the fact that news coverage is strong doesn’t justify the temporary price dip to be principle-based.It is not easy to be a contrarian, yet it is very rewarding. We firmly believe this to be another rare opportunity to add to one’s physical holdings of Silver.The four cornerstones for resilience are:You. Take care of yourself first. A year without gyms, cooped up at home, and social isolation took a toll. Make sure you are balanced.People. No matter if corporate or family. We all went through this. As a result, people, worn out and making more mistakes, have changed. Don’t take your spouse and kids for granted. Treat your loved ones with extra care and renourish. They are your backbone. Accept that people essential to your business might not be as reliable as they used to be. Reevaluate partnerships and supply chains and have a watchful eye where your business is vulnerable. This is especially important if you trade with other people’s money.Technology. With supply chains banged up, it is wise to have backup systems in place and not expect smooth operations in case of extraordinary circumstances. Have necessary parts stockpiled and be self-dependent.Operations. Check your operations for their processes, people, and technology. Think risk control over efficiency. Form KYC to regulatory changes and increased fraud; this isn’t a time to streamline and maximize. Instead, set up systems to monitor compliance, strengthen your partnerships and supply chain reliance. Overall under the motto: “Never assume!” as we are now living in a world of fast change.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Last week´s setup:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of March 24th, 2021.We posted this chart in last week’s Silver chartbook publication.  Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Execution on the plan:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 1st, 2021.Since prices moved into our pre-planned entry zone of the yellow circle, we posted two entries live on our free Telegram channel. We were able to take already partial profits based on our Quad exit strategy to eliminate risk and are now holding two runners.Sideways range entries like these with quick risk elimination are representative of resilience. One doesn’t know which one of these entries will be the one where the remainder position size will break through the upper boundary of the range. One doesn’t need to. As long as the entries are low risk, this engagement in a tough sideways zone with the clarity of great success once the range breaks in the direction of the trend supports persistent efforts.Monthly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Silver-Focus on resilience, The edge on our side:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 1st, 2021.It is a misconception that one needs to be right to make money. But the ego constantly suggests us to find that best entry price. However, there is no such thing. We need to try resiliently until we get it right and control risk and reward ratios over sample sizes. An effort that requires a resilient mindset.A look at the most critical large time frame chart above shows three crucial factors.A preceding strong directional leg from US$12 to US$30 indicating a trend.A very favorable risk-reward ratio for the large time frame players.And if you have a closer look within the red box, you will find excellent volume transaction support below the price we are trading right now.Trading is a business no matter what time frame. You are in charge of wealth preservation and creation and you are the core anchor. Hence, you need to be in the best shape. Review your business plan and be aware that resilience requires a review of your breaking points. While we typically streamline business for efficiency, resilience points towards risk control and a look at dependencies. Ask yourself what can be learned from last year’s challenges and what can be done that similar surprise events do not negatively impact your business.Silver, Focus on resilience:Why did we pick this topic? Because trading and investment systems are only as good as their weakest link. With human error in trading being the number one equity curve killer, you are the weakest link. With change gaining speed, we find a top-down approach necessary to assure resilience to act upon the opportunities that change offers, maturely and fittingly. It isn’t business as usual; these times require extra preparation for the long haul.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 2nd, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value swinging higher as well. Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.Stocks are more focused on the tidal wave of liquidity rather than the tax increases that follow behind. So far, it‘s still reflation – tame inflation expectations given the avalanche of fresh money, real economy slowly but surely heating up (non-farm payrolls beat expectations on Friday), and not about the long-term consequences of tax hikes:(…) Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.And as the falling yields were embraced by tech with open arms, the sector‘s leadership in the S&P 500 upswing is back. As you‘ll see further on, the market breadth isn‘t pitiful either – slight non-confirmation yes, but I am looking for it to be gradually resolved with yet another price upswing, and that means more open profits (that‘s 7 winning stock market 2021 trades in a row).The Fed thus far quite succeeded in passing the inflation threat off as transitory, but the rebalancing into a higher inflation envrionment is underway – just look at the bullish consolidation across many commodities.The crucial copper to 10-year Treasury yield ratio is slowly turning higher as the red metal defends gained ground, oil rebound is progressing and lumber is moving to new highs. And don‘t forget the surging soybeans and corn either. Apart from having positive influence upon S&P 500 materials or real estate sectors, precious metals have welcomed the turn, rebounding off the double bottom with miners‘ leadership and silver not getting too hot yet. And that‘s positive for the white metal‘s coming strong gains – let alone the yellow one‘s.Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).S&P 500 and Its InternalsSlightly lower volume during the whole week and Friday is merely a short-term non-confirmation. It isn’t a burning issue as stocks closed the week on a strong note. The bullish price action on the heels of improving credit markets and technology-led S&P 500 upswing, has good chances of going on.See by how much market breadth improved vs. Thursday – both the advance-decline line and advance-decline volume turned reasonably higher, and given the tech leadership in the upswing, new highs new lows merely levelled off. For them to turn higher, value stocks would have to step to the fore again.Credit MarketsThe high yield corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) ratio confirmed the stock market upswing with its own bullish move, and the two are overlaid quite nicely at the moment. No whiff of non-confirmation here.Tech and ValueTech (XLK ETF) rose strongly, and value stocks (VTV ETF) stocks more than defended prior gains. Even financials (XLF ETF) moved higher, regardless of the rising Treasuries. The breadth of the stock market advance isn‘t weak at all, after all.Gold in the SpotlightLet‘s quote the assessment from my Easter update:(…) There had been indeed something about the gold decoupling from rising Treasury yields that I had been raising for countless weeks. The rebound off Mar 08 low retest is plain out in the open, miners keep outperforming on the upside, and the precious metals sector faces prospects of gradual recovery, basing with a tendency to trade higher before the awaited Fed intervention on the long end of the curve comes – should the market force its hand mightily enough. Either way for now, given the rising inflation and inflation expectations, a retreat in nominal rates translates into a decline in real rates, which is what gold loves.That‘s the dynamic of calm days – once the Fed finally even hints at capping yields, expect gold fireworks. Remember, the ECB, Australia and others are in that fight at the long end of the curve already. And with so much inflation in the pipeline as the PPI underscores, an inflationary spike is virtually baked in the cake.Another weekly gold chart, this time with miners overlaid. Since the Mar 08 bottom, their outperformance has become very apparent, and miners made a higher high as gold approached the bottom last week. Coupled with the waning power of the sellers, these are positive signs for the precious metals sector.Gold‘s daily chart reveals the rebound‘s veracity – just as sharp as the dive to the second bottom was. Silver moved higher, scoring smaller gains than the yellow metal, which isn‘t however an issue as the white metal tends to outperform in the latter stages of precious metals upswings. We aren‘t there yet, and haven‘t seen it outperform in mid-Mar either.SummaryS&P 500 has challenged and conquered the 4,000 mark, and the upswing‘s internals keep being aligned bullishly. No sharp correction in sight indeed.Precious metals rebound lives on, accompanied by the miners‘ outperformance. Copper and many commodities keep consolidating, which is actually bullish given the retreat in yields. Another confirmation of the approaching upleg in commodities and precious metals as inflation starts running hotter and hotter.

In fact, Bitcoin is a decentralized global digital network which in essence is transforming analog assets into digital assets. It has been growing at 200% a year. Now after 12 years in existence Bitcoin is a digital trillion-dollar network.What supports its long-term stability is that its decentralization and transparency are immune against policy. While we typically at the mercy of policymakers and as such a middleman that can manipulate the use of a payment method, with Bitcoin, the individual is genuinely safe. Looking at the world around us where it is hard to find any field not infiltrated by groups who seek to take advantage, manipulate, and flat out lie, it is a true need one can trust a store of value to benchmark against.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, Our chart from last week’s chartbook:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 23rd, 2021.We posted the above short to midterm chart prediction in our last week’s chartbook publication.BTC-USDT, Daily Chart, As anticipated-another leg up:Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of March 29th, 2021.The market unfolded quite as planned. BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Health and sustainability:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2021.If we analyze Bitcoin prices advancing from last August’s lows, we can find an intact Elliot impulse wave pattern. The Health and sustainability of this trend are derived from the three propulsion proportions. While advancing strongly in the first wave with a 323 % advancement, the pace cooled down to a 99% second leg upward. These stunning advancements followed yet again by a more moderate increase of 44% to its recent all-time highs. This abstinence of a blow-off top or run-away train allows us to believe that prices could march higher.BTC-USDT, Weekly Chart, Bitcoin is invaluable, Projections:Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of March 29th, 2021.When examining projections, we like to stack odds by looking at both a time and a price component. The above chart shows this blend using a time cycle approach (vertical lines) and a Fibonacci extension probability measurement. Stacking these projection tools would lead us to a price target near ninety-seven thousand for the mid-next year. Our “conservative” projection is marked with the yellow circle on the top right of the chart.Bitcoin is invaluable:Looking around, and you will find that the Dollar is what around the world most value storage is bench-marked against. It seems frightening to us since the Dollar has no gold standard or otherwise intrinsic value that we still give it this much power only based on a belief. With economic powers shifting towards the east and a lack of political and economic leadership, beliefs can change, and as such, currency stability is endangered. Hedging your store of value through an instrument that holds intrinsic value based on principles over beliefs seems more than logical.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|March 30th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

What’s going to happen? Bank of America and Citigroup will report their earnings in Q1’2021 on April 15 before the market open. What to do with it? If BAC and Citi outperform market expectations, it’s possible that the price of their respective stocks rises. Therefore, if you’re convinced that the results will be better than thought, you buy before the reporting date of April 15 in the expectation that the price will rise. Once it goes higher, you sell. Are we convinced that these banks will outperform? The fundamental factor that supports the rising profits and, consequently, stock value growth for both banks is the improving economic outlook. Primarily, in the US, and globally. One of the specific elements is the rising US Treasury yields which have a direct influence on the banks’ own interest rates and, hence, profits. However, this factor may not have reached its full momentum in Q1’2021 as it wasn’t yet clear during the first months of the year how the situation will unroll. That’s why this factor is more about the mid-term and long-term. However, that doesn’t mean that observers won’t include that into their reaction to the coming release of the earnings data on April 15. Bank of America, Citigroup, and other stocks are available in FBS Trader! Besides, you can trade stock through MetaTrader 5. What’s expected? The estimated EPS of BAC for Q1’2021 is $0.63; the one of Citi - $2.24. Take into account the differences now: Citi brought much stronger data in the last two quarters of 2020 against the forecasts than the Bank of American did against the market’s projections. In the meantime, Citi’s stock looks more vulnerable responsive to the downward pressures while BAC is making all-time highs. On the one hand, it makes it easier to plan for an optimistic scenario of Citi: it has its pre-virus high of $82 to be reached by bulls. The Bank of America, on the other hand, is already exploring uncharted upside territories. Therefore, we can only extrapolate that a better-than-thought earnings report may push its stock further above – into the area of $43 per share.

The March nonfarm payrolls were surprisingly strong. If the current favorable trend in the U.S. labor market continues, gold may struggle.As the chart below shows, in March 2021, total nonfarm payrolls rose by 916,000 , following gains of 468,000 in February (after an upward revision). The latest gains were the largest since August 2020. It’s important to note here that job growth was widespread, although led by gains in leisure, hospitality, education, and construction.Furthermore, the U.S. economy added significantly more jobs than expected . Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecasted 675,000 additions, but it turned out that employment in January and February combined was 156,000 higher than previously reported. Also on the positive side, the unemployment rate declined from 6.2 to 6 percent , as the chart below shows. As the unemployment rate is much below its high from April 2020, it’s clear that the U.S. labor market is recovering from the pandemic recession .However, significant slack remains. First, the unemployment rate is still 2.5 percentage points higher compared to February 2020, before the pandemic started. Second, the broader unemployment rates, which paint a more accurate picture of unemployment, are even further from their pre-pandemic levels. For instance, the broadest U-6 rate was 10.7 percent in March, i.e., 3.7 percentage points above the level seen in early 2020. Third, the labor-participation rate is 1.8 percentage points lower than its pre-pandemic level, which means that many people simply dropped out from the labor market instead of searching for a job.Implications for GoldWhat does it all mean for the yellow metal? Well, gold’s reaction to a generally good employment situation report was positive . As the chart below shows, the London price of the shiny metal increased from $1,726 on April 1 to $1,745 on April 6, 2021, when the fixing resumed after the holidays.The explanation for gold’s positive reaction might lie in the fact that although the employment report was positive, it won’t be enough to alter the Fed’s monetary policy . As a reminder, the U.S. central bank wants to see “substantial further progress” towards labor market repair before tapering the asset purchases and raising the interest rates . Of course, further such reports with almost one million job gains would force the Fed to admit that the situation improved substantially.However, the Fed would like to see a continuation of the current trend for a while before it will alter its stance. Indeed, as Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans recently said, “those conditions will not be met for a while (…) Policy is likely on hold for some time.”And it won’t be easy to sustain the current favorable trend in the labor market. This is because the large share of the unemployed are long-term unemployed, roughly 43 percent, and there is a risk that these people will get discouraged and drop out from the labor market. It’s easier to put short-term unemployed than long-term unemployed into work again.Regardless, gold’s reaction amid the surprisingly strong nonfarm payrolls report and the accompanying rise in the bond yields could be seen as encouraging . Some analysts even believe that the yellow metal has bottomed out.However, given that the U.S. outpaces its major peers in the pace of economic recovery, it might be too early to call the return of the gold bulls . So, the medium-term downside risks remain present in the gold market. Although the single report won’t cause an immediate shift in the Fed’s stance, if this trend continues, the market expectations of the Fed’s tapering and hikes in the federal funds rate could move up, exerting downward pressure on gold prices.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Inflation is coming. Gold may benefit from it, especially if inflation turns out to be more long-lasting than central bankers and markets believe.Brace yourselves, inflation is coming ! Importantly, not only grumblers such as myself are talking about rising prices right now, but even the Fed officials themselves admitted that inflation will jump this year. Indeed, in the latest dot plot , the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects that the PCE annual percent change will soar from 1.3 percent in December 2020 to 2.4 percent at the end of this year. Importantly, their projections increased significantly in the last three months when they amounted to 1.8 percent.And remember, we are talking here about the official inflation figures. The real inflationary pressure, which also affects asset prices, is much stronger. Furthermore, the pandemic changed the composition of consumption, as people are buying more goods and less services. And guess what, the prices of goods are rising more than the prices of services, so many people’s actual consumption baskets have become more expensive than official ones, implying that true inflation is higher than the officially reported one, as the IMF has recently admitted .Does this mean that the FOMC members have all suddenly become monetary hawks worried about higher inflation? Not at all. The Fed believes that inflation will be temporary, caused by the base effects (very low inflation readings in the second quarter of 2020) and by the reopening of the economy that will trigger higher consumer spending and some increases in prices.The U.S. central bank might be right. After all, there will be some temporary forces at play. There always are, but – oh, what a funny thing! – the Fed always cites “transient effects on inflation” when it’s increasing, but not when it’s declining. The problem is, however, that the markets don’t believe the U.S. central bank . Please take a look at the chart below, which displays inflation expectations over the next five and ten upcoming years.As you can see, both medium-term and long-term inflation expectations have significantly increased in the last few months. It means that investors don’t only expect a temporary rise in inflation – on the contrary, they forecast a more persistent increases in prices . Indeed, Mr. Market believes that inflation will be, on average, 2.5 percent in the next 5 years and almost 2.3 percent in the next 10 years, significantly above the Fed’s target of 2 percent.Of course, it might be the case that Mr. Market is wrong, and Mr. Powell is right. But what is disturbing is the Fed’s confidence – or, rather overconfidence – that it can contain inflation if it turns out to be something more than only a temporary phenomenon. Such a conceit led to stagflation in the 1970s. Gold shined at that time.Then, as today, the central bank focused more on the maximum employment than inflation, believing that it can always control the latter by raising the federal funds rate if necessary. But, as Robert J. Barro, from Harvard University, points out , “the problem is that hiking short-term rates will have little impact on inflation once high long-term expected inflation has taken root.”And the recent Fed’s actions, including the new monetary framework, according to which the U.S. central bank tries to overshoot its target for some time, may easily waste the reputational capital that was created by Paul Volcker and de-anchor inflation expectations.In other words, a negative shock can be accommodated by the central bank without long-lasting effects, as people understand that it’s a unique one-off event, after which everything will return to normalcy. But the Fed is far from normalizing its monetary policy . On the contrary, it has recently signaled that it wouldn’t raise interest rates preemptively to prevent inflation, as it could hamper the economic recovery. The risk here is that if people start to view exceptional as the new normal, their inflation expectations could shift, and become unanchored.To sum up, it might be the case that markets are overstating short-term inflation risks. But it’s also possible that politicians and central bankers understate the longer-term inflationary dangers , as Kenneth Rogoff, also from Harvard University, argues . After all, unlike in the aftermath of the Great Recession , when only the monetary base skyrocketed, the pace of growth of the broad money supply also soared this time – and it’s still increasing, as the chart below shows.In other words, while all the created liquidity after the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 flowed mainly into the financial markets, during the pandemic , it flowed into the real economy to a much larger extent, which can create more inflationary pressure.What’s more, the easy monetary policy is now accompanied by a very loose fiscal policy and the unprecedentedly large fiscal deficits , which could push the economy deeper into the debt trap . This could undermine the central-bank independence and prevent a timely normalization of interest rates , not to mention the weakening of globalization’s downside impact on inflation, caused partially by demographic factors and reshuffling in supply chains. Last but not least, the rising commodity prices and international transport costs, accompanied by the weakening U.S. dollar, may be harbingers of an approaching inflation monster.What does it all mean for the gold market? Well, the jump in inflation in 2021 should be positive for the yellow metal , which could gain as an inflation hedge . The downward pressure on the real interest rates should also be supportive for gold prices, although the rally in the bond yields may counteract this effect. But if Powell is right and inflation turns out to be only temporary, then gold may be hard hit, and we could see a goldilocks economy again (i.e., fast economic growth with low inflation). However, if markets are right, or if the long-term inflationary risks materialize, which even investors may understate, gold should shine.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all of our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

Keep your eye on the ball. Just because the GDX ETF went up last week doesn’t mean that it’s in an uptrend. Corrections are part of the game.Just as the USD Index recently (last week) suffered a countertrend decline within a medium-term uptrend, so has the GDX ETF experienced a corrective upswing within a medium-term downtrend.Nothing moves in a straight line, so recent developments in both the gold miners and the USD Index are nothing to worry about. Everyone is still on track. Gold and the miners are headed for a medium-term downtrend and the USD Index is still gathering steam and will be leaving the station.With the gold miners attempting to dig themselves out of their 2021 hole, the labor of love could end as quickly as it began. With a temporary retreat of the USD Index last week and dormant U.S. Treasury yields doing much of the heavy lifting, the GDX ETF had plenty of help breaking down its wall of worry.However, with April showers likely to derail further construction activity, off-site momentum may not be as kind. Case in point: the GDX ETF is still trading below the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern, and while the senior miners’ bounce above their March high may seem like a ground-breaking event, the synthetic strength is likely to hammer the miners over the medium term. Why so? Well, like a current running on extremely low voltage, Friday’s (Apr. 9) intraday bounce occurred on relatively low volume – with the positive momentum evaporating into the close.Please see below:As further evidence, the March/April corrective upswing took the form of a zigzag pattern, which is indicative of a countertrend move within a medium-term downtrend. In addition, if you analyze the chart above, notice how fits and starts were part of the senior miners’ price action back in January? In both cases, the GDX ETF moved above the declining blue resistance line and the 50-day moving average. Yet … the GDX ETF is lower now than it was then.Furthermore, back in January, the GDX ETF initially ignored gold’s daily (Jan. 6) weakness. Thus, Friday’s (Apr. 9) outperformance by the GDX ETF is far from an all-clear. In fact, it could be the final creak before the foundation crumbles.Some might say that mining stocks are showing strength compared to gold as the GDX to gold ratio broke above its declining resistance line.However, I don’t think it’s fair to say so. I think that seeing a breakout in the GDX to gold ratio is not enough for one to say that the miners to gold ratio is breaking higher.After all, the GDX ETF is just one proxy for mining stocks, and if miners were really showing strength here, one should also see it in the case of other proxies for the mining stocks when compared to gold.For instance, the HUI Index to gold ratio, the XAU Index to gold ratio, and the GDXJ ( junior mining stocks ) to gold ratio.There is no breakout in the HUI to gold ratio whatsoever. In fact, the ratio is quite far from its declining resistance line. Even if we chose other late-2020 tops to draw this line, there would still be no breakout.There is no breakout in the XAU to gold ratio either. The previous attempts for the XAU to gold ratio to rally above their 2020 high marked great shorting opportunities, which is very far from being a bullish implication.But the most bearish implication comes from gold’s ratio with another ETF – the GDXJ.The breakout in the GDXJ to gold ratio is only tiny and unconfirmed. These moves always (since Oct. 2020) provided sell signals – the small breakout below the declining resistance line were always invalidated and they were then followed by visible short-term declines.Five out of five previous attempts to break above the declining resistance line failed and were followed by short-term declines. Is this time really different?It seems to me that the five out of five efficiency in the GDXJ to gold ratio is more important than a single breakout in the GDX to gold ratio, especially considering that the latter was preceded by a similar breakout in mid-March. That breakout failed and was followed by declines.Taking all four proxies into account, it seems that the implications are rather neutral to bearish. Especially when taking into account another major ratio - the one between HUI and S&P 500 is after a major, confirmed breakdown.When the ratio presented on the above chart above is rising, it means that the HUI Index is outperforming the S&P 500. When the line above is falling, it means that the S&P 500 is outperforming the HUI Index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the ratio has broken below its rising support line. For context, the last time a breakdown of this magnitude occurred, the ratio plunged from late-2017 to late-2018. Thus, the development is profoundly bearish.Playing out as I expected, a sharp move lower was followed by a corrective upswing back to the now confirmed breakdown level (which is now resistance). Mirroring the behavior that we witnessed in early 2018, after breaking below its rising support line, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio rallied back to the initial breakdown level (which then became resistance) before suffering a sharp decline. And with two-thirds of the analogue already complete, the current move lower still has plenty of room to run. Likewise, the early-2018 top in the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio is precisely when the USD Index began its massive upswing. Thus, with history likely to rhyme, the greenback could spoil the miners’ party once again.In addition, the HUI to S&P 500 ratio broke below the neck level (red, dashed line) of a broad head-and-shoulders pattern and it verified this breakdown by moving temporarily back to it. The target for the ratio based on this formation is at about 0.05 (slightly above it). Consequently, if the S&P 500 doesn’t decline, the ratio at 0.05 would imply the HUI Index at about 196. However, if the S&P 500 declined to about 3,200 or so (its late-2020 lows) and the ratio moved to about 0.05, it would imply the HUI Index at about 160 – very close to its 2020 lows.All in all, the implications of mining stocks’ relative performance to gold and the general stock market are currently bearish.But if we’re headed for a GDX ETF cliff, how far could we fall?Well, there are three reasons why the GDX ETF might form an interim bottom at roughly ~$27.50 (assuming no big decline in the general stock market ):The GDX ETF previously bottomed at the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels. And with the 61.8% level next in line, the GDX ETF is likely to garner similar support.The GDX ETFs late-March 2020 high should also elicit buying pressure.If we copy the magnitude of the late-February/early-March decline and add it to the early-March bottom, it corresponds with the GDX ETF bottoming at roughly $27.50.Keep in mind though: if the stock market plunges, all bets are off. Why so? Well, because when the S&P 500 plunged in March 2020, the GDX ETF moved from $29.67 to below $17 in less than two weeks. As a result, U.S. equities have the potential to make the miners’ forthcoming swoon all the more painful.Also supporting the potential move, the GDX ETF’s head and shoulders pattern – marked by the shaded green boxes in the first chart above – signals further weakness ahead.I wrote previously:The most recent move higher only made the similarity of this shoulder portion of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern to the left shoulder) bigger. This means that when the GDX breaks below the neck level of the pattern in a decisive way, the implications are likely to be extremely bearish for the next several weeks or months.Turning to the junior gold miners , the GDXJ ETF will likely be the worst performer during the upcoming swoon. Why so? Well, due to its strong correlation with the S&P 500, a swift correction of U.S. equities will likely sink the juniors in the process. Besides, junior miners have been underperforming recently even without general stock market’s help.Furthermore, erratic signals from the MACD indicator epitomizes the GDXJ ETF’s heightened volatility. Remember though that the MACD indicator is far from a light switch. While false buy signals often precede material drawdowns, the reversals don’t occur overnight. As a result, it’s perfectly normal for the GDXJ ETF to trade sideways or slightly higher for a few days before moving lower.Please see below:And unlike its senior counterpart, the GDXJ ETF cemented its relative underperformance by moving lower on Friday.So, how low could the GDXJ ETF go?Well, absent an equity rout, the juniors could form an interim bottom in the $34 to $36 range. Conversely, if stocks show strength, juniors could form the interim bottom higher, close to the $42.5 level. For context, the above-mentioned ranges coincide with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and the GDXJ ETF’s previous highs (including the late-March/early-April high in case of the lower target area). Thus, the S&P 500 will likely need to roll over for the weakness to persist beyond these levels.Some people (especially the permabulls that have been bullish on gold for all of 2021, suffering significant losses – directly and in missed opportunities) will say that the final bottom is already in. And this might very well be the case, but it seems highly unlikely. On a side note, please keep in mind that I’m neither a permabull nor a permabear for the precious metals sector, nor have I ever been. Let me emphasize that I’m currently bearish (for the time being), but about a month ago, we went long mining stocks on March 4 and exited this profitable trade on March 11.As another reliable indicator (in addition to the myriads of signals coming not only from mining stocks, but from gold, silver, USD Index, stocks, their ratios, and many fundamental observations) the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) isn’t at levels that elicit a major reversal. The Index is now back at 40. However, far from a medium-term bottom, the latest reading is still more than 30 points above the 2016 and 2020 lows.Back in 2016 (after the top), and in March 2020, the buying opportunity didn’t present itself until the $BPGDM was below 10.Thus, with sentiment still relatively elevated, it will take more negativity for the index to find the true bottom.The excessive bullishness was present at the 2016 top as well and it didn’t cause the situation to be any less bearish in reality. All markets periodically get ahead of themselves regardless of how bullish the long-term outlook really is. Then, they correct. If the upswing was significant, the correction is also quite often significant.Please note that back in 2016, there was an additional quick upswing before the slide and this additional upswing had caused the $BPGDM to move up once again for a few days. It then declined once again. We saw something similar also in the middle of 2020. In this case, the move up took the index once again to the 100 level, while in 2016 this wasn’t the case. But still, the similarity remains present.Back in 2016, when we saw this phenomenon, it was already after the top, and right before the big decline. Based on the decline from above 350 to below 280, we know that a significant decline is definitely taking place.But has it already run its course?Well, in 2016 and early 2020, the HUI Index continued to move lower until it declined below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The emphasis goes on “below” as this retracement might not trigger the final bottom. Case in point: back in 2020, the HUI Index undershot the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and gave back nearly all of its prior rally. And using the 2016 and 2020 analogues as anchors, this time around, the HUI Index is likely to decline below 231. In addition, if the current decline is more similar to the 2020 one, the HUI Index could move to 150 or so, especially if it coincides with a significant drawdown of U.S. equities.In conclusion, akin to Humpty Dumpty, “all the King's horses and all the King's men” are unlikely to put the GDX ETF back together again. With the HUI Index to gold ratio, the XAU Index to gold ratio and the GDXJ ETF to gold ratio all splintering beneath the surface, the GDX ETF’s recent strength simply masks all of the cracks in the precious metals’ foundation. Furthermore, with the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields threatening to swing the wrecking ball, the metals’ house of cards could soon face demolition. Thus, even though the long-term outlook for gold, silver , and mining stocks is very bullish, the short- and perhaps medium-term outlooks remain profoundly bearish, and investors that ignore the warning signs will likely find themselves submerged in the rubble.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The latest FOMC minutes were dovish, especially in light of the recent increase in inflation. That’s good for gold.Last week, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) published minutes from its last meeting in March . They show that – in light of positive economic indicators – the members of the Committee turned out to be more optimistic about the U.S. economy since the previous meeting. But this is what we already know from the March economic projections.What is new and much more important is that Fed officials expressed the view that despite all the progress, the economic situation remained unsatisfactory with many indicators still far from the pre-pandemic level and the Fed’s long-term targets:Despite these positive indicators and an improved public health situation, participants agreed that the economy remained far from the Committee's longer-run goals and that the path ahead remained highly uncertain, with the pandemic continuing to pose considerable risks to the outlook.In consequence – and this is probably the key message from the recent minutes – the FOMC members reaffirmed that they are in no rush to taper the quantitative easing . Furthermore, the U.S. central bank will announce a change in the pace of asset purchases well in advance:Participants noted that it would likely be some time until substantial further progress toward the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals would be realized and that, consistent with the Committee's outcome-based guidance, asset purchases would continue at least at the current pace until then. A number of participants highlighted the importance of the Committee clearly communicating its assessment of progress toward its longer-run goals well in advance of the time when it could be judged substantial enough to warrant a change in the pace of asset purchases. The timing of such communications would depend on the evolution of the economy and the pace of progress toward the Committee's goals.And the hike in the federal funds rate will happen only after the start of the normalization of the Fed’s balance sheet . So, given a lack of any communication in this regard, investors shouldn’t expect any increases in the interest rates for years .Last but not least, the Fed not only started to expect higher inflation – as a reminder, the FOMC participants expect 2.4 percent PCE inflation in 2021 – but it also “viewed the risks of upside inflationary pressures as having increased since the previous forecast”. However, the central bankers still believe that the increase in inflation this year will be transitory due to the base effects and supply disruptions:In the near term, the 12-month change in PCE prices was expected to move above 2 percent as the low inflation readings from the spring of last year drop out of the calculation. Most participants also pointed to supply constraints that could contribute to price increases for some goods in coming months as the economy continued to reopen. After the transitory effects of these factors fade, however, participants generally anticipated that annual inflation readings would edge down next year.This is a puzzling view in light of the fact that many participants “judged that the release of pent-up demand could boost consumption growth further as social distancing waned.” So, in some magical way, the release of pent-up demand could boost consumption, but not prices, and inflation could be increased only by supply factor, but not by demand factors.Implications for GoldWhat do the recent FOMC minutes imply for the yellow metal? Well, the increase in expected and actual inflation rates combined with the Fed’s dovish stance could create downward pressure on the real interest rates and the U.S. dollar, thus supporting gold prices . The yellow metal could also benefit from the elevated demand for inflation hedges in an environment of stronger upward pressure on prices.Indeed, the price of gold jumped shortly on Thursday (Apr. 8) above $1,750, as the chart below shows. This upward move was temporary, though, but that can change soon, as the inflation genie has popped out of the bottle.The Producer Price Index increased by one percent in March , twice more than in February, and significantly above the expectations of a rise of 0.4 percent. As well, the final demand index moved up 4.2 percent for the twelve months ended in March, the largest increase since September 2011. Meanwhile, the index for all commodities surged even more (12 percent!), in the fastest pace since the Great Recession , as the chart below shows. Importantly, the Consumer Price Index has also been rising recently (I will cover this report in the next edition of the Fundamental Gold Report).Of course, the rise in inflation may also increase the nominal bond yields, which could be negative for the gold market. However, the rally in the bond yields was mainly caused by the fact that investors priced in a more aggressive path of the federal funds rate than the FOMC members have indicated. But after the recent minutes it seems that these traders are starting to capitulate and will not fight the Fed anymore. This would be good news for the gold market.Indeed, the second quarter started much better for the yellow metal than the awful beginning of the year, and there are some reasons (dovish Fed, higher inflation, limited potential for further rally in the bond yields) for cautious optimism. But the key problem is that the Fed is still relatively hawkish compared to the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank . Well, we will see, stay tuned!If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Plan:First, you need to set a goal like: “I want to become a consistently profitable trader.”Secondly, you want each day to look at the market from a top-down perspective (large time frames first). Then plan your game plan for the next day (see our daily call).Thirdly, be precise in what you will be scanning for the next day (i.e., sideways days fade highs and buy double bottoms, directional days: fade in the direction of the trend and don’t counter-trend trade).Also, select times for execution (every day the same time segment).Scan:On the day of a possible execution, one is now fortified with a clear set of rules on what to look for and primarily on what not to do. This allows for participation with reduced risk to get sucked into market action on smaller time frames. Instead, you shouldidentify pre-planned patternsdetermine sensible low risk entry pointsand verify whether your daily call is still in play or if your prior day assessment is proven wrong (which would disqualify this day as an execution day).Execute:Once entry criteria are verified (price patterns, indicator readings, price levels, and so forth), your job is to evaluate if the math fits the trade.First, mark your stop based on a support resistance level. Secondly, identify the next reasonable resistance zone for your trade, and if the distance towards your stop is smaller in size of the distance towards your first target (r/r ratio=1:1.5, see our Quad exit strategy ), you’re in business. Identify your following two targets as well. If the trade fits preset criteria, you are obligated to execute the trade.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The plan:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 15th, 2021.Larger timeframe plays work much alike since your process sheet approach is principle-based and expandable to the larger picture. We looked for a wealth preservation vehicle and found in Silver what fits the bill due to overwhelming fundamental data.The monthly chart above shows a projection chart where we see prices heading. One can see how Silver prices were declining from 2011 highs till 2015. Then the Silver market traded sideways until March last year. From that point on, we quickly advanced in just five-month to US$30. We find evidence that prices should go higher from here.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, The scan:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 15th, 2021.The look at the weekly chart is confirming a possible play. The yellow trend-lines indicate direction. We are trading near the lows of this support channel and near the mean (red line). Silver extending to three standard deviations from a volatility model is within the norm. As such, our projection allows for a substantial expansion of price from here (see red vertical line). With four levels of support (green horizontal lines), we are confident that lower supply zones (two-volume transaction nodes at US$25.24 and US$24.36, the mean at US$23.39 and the round figure US$23) are holding up price. A third test of the US$30 resistance zone could break through that supply zone, promising higher price levels.Weekly Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, The execution:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 15th, 2021.With an entry near US$25.50, the long-term investor could engage into the market with a stop set at US$22.87 and a financing target near US$29.83. (see our Quad exit strategy). This would provide for a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.64. The next target being US$47.46, allows for ample profits to let the runner take its course for much higher price levels (triple-digit) until we get substantial counter signals to exit the final part of the position.Plan, Scan, Execute:Scrutinize all parts of this three-step instruction setup. People have set goals like becoming a millionaire and lost half their profits on the day they hit the seven-figure number. A subconscious part set in that they would be not worthy of such a sum. We mean to say the devil is in the details. Clearly, we are not trying to simplify trading here and make it sound easy. We see many traders make mistakes since they do not have a detailed, clear instruction plan that they follow religiously. Such a process sheet reduced to its mere bone structure is essential.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 15th, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

The recent rally in the bond yields pushed gold prices down, but this trend won’t continue forever, as the Fed will likely be forced to step in.In March, we saw a continuation of the rally in bond yields that started in February. As the chart below shows, the 10-year real interest rates have soared from -1.06 on February 10 to -0.66 percent on March 23.What is clear from the chart is the strong correlation between the 10-year TIPS yields and the gold prices. As a consequence, the rising bond yields made gold struggle. However, in March, the real interest rates were much more choppy compared to February, when they surged decisively. It may signal a lack of fuel for the further rally, at least for a while.Now, what is important here is that despite the recent jump in the real yields, they remain extremely low from the historical point of view . And they remain well below zero! This is good news for the gold market, as the yellow metal shines the most when real interest rates are negative.Of course, the direction of change is also very important, not just the absolute level. So, the question is, will the rates increase further? Well, it’s unfortunately possible, as the improving economic outlook and risk appetite are encouraging investors to buy stocks rather than bonds.On the other hand, the rising inflation expectations suggest that real yields may struggle to increase further , or they actually may go down. As the chart below shows, the market expectations of inflation in the next 10 years, derived from the Treasuries, have risen from 0.50 at the bottom in March 2020 to 2.31 on March 24, 2021.Given the increase that has already taken place, the further rise may be limited. But the broad money supply is still rising at an accelerating pace, and investors still don’t believe that the Fed will not hike the federal funds rate to combat rising inflation. They don’t buy the new monetary framework and all the talking about letting inflation overshoot the Fed’s target. Of course, the promise to be irresponsible in the future is not very credible, but investors shouldn’t underestimate the recklessness of central bankers .You see, we live in an era of weak policymakers unable to make serious commitments, or take unpopular actions, contrary to the needs of Wall Street and the government. For example, Janet Yellen , as a Treasury Secretary, should stress fiscal discipline – instead, she praised the “go big” approach of the new administration. Congress has already passed the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the next additional spending is coming . The legislative proposal of new government expenditures on infrastructure and other priorities (such as climate change and the labor market) could collectively cost more than $3 trillion.It’s true that the additional government spending and the necessary borrowing could push up the yields (this is an important downward risk for gold). But rising interest rates could hamper the economic recovery and make government financing more costly, further ballooning already mammoth fiscal deficits . So, the Fed will likely have to step in and expand its quantitative easing program or introduce other measures, such as the yield curve control, to curb the long-term interest rates. It will weaken the dollar, thus supporting gold prices.As a reminder, the Bank of Japan has started to target the yield on 10-year government bonds at around zero percent in 2016, as it decided that the rapid monetary base expansion via large-scale asset purchases was unsustainable. More recently, the European Central Bank has announced in March the acceleration in the pace of its QE in a response to the rally in bond yields.So, do you really think that the Fed won’t follow suit? That Powell will not help Yellen, his former boss from the Fed? The sharp increase in yields would be inconsistent with the Fed’s dovish policy and the overall debt-driven economic growth. Hence, if the interest rates increase too much, be sure that the Fed will do something, providing a long-awaited support for the price of gold.What is “too much”? Not so much, at least not in the debt-trap we live in. Some analysts believe that this could occur if nominal 10-year Treasury yields rise over 2 percent, not too far from the current levels, as one can see in the chart below.Should we be surprised, given the bond bubble created by the central banks? They have kept the bond yields artificially depressed for years, so even a modest normalization – perfectly justified by the expectations of economic recovery and rising inflation – could collapse the house of cards and cause a financial crisis . Hence, although markets have become more optimistic recently, I’m afraid that bears and black swans haven’t said the last word yet. And neither has gold.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all of our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

A culminating point has been reached. With the USD Index being backed up by solid fundamentals, can gold hold the line?Have you ever noticed how often the language of war is used in finance and economics articles? A given company is on the defensive or the offensive, a stock is pushing forward, something else is rallying, positions are being taken… who will fire first? It’s the case of continuous push and pull factors that makes military strategies and concepts relevant to the subject of money.Now, when it comes to gold and the USD Index, it’s not the great battle of our time (in reference to today’s title), as Gandalf explained to Pippin in The Lord of the Rings, but it’s a battle, nonetheless. For the yellow metal, it could even be the deep breath before the plunge. We’ll soon find out.With an epic struggle for supremacy set to unfold in the coming weeks, battle lines have officially been drawn: with the USD Index hovering near its 50-day moving average and gold recapturing its 50-day MA, negatively correlated assets have officially collided. And, as the rules of engagement specify that to the victor go the spoils, which one is likely to wave the white flag?Well, with the USD Index built on a foundation of relative fundamentals and gold a beneficiary of shifting sentiment, the former remains locked and loaded and poised to neutralize the threat. Case in point: despite the USD Index’s recent recoil, non-commercial (speculative) futures traders actually increased their net-long positions last week .Please see below: Source: COTMoreover, let’s keep in mind that when net-speculative short interest as a percentage of total open interest (based on the CoT data) became extremely high in 2014 and 2018, the USD Index recoded two of its sharpest rallies in history. How sharp? Well, let’s take a look at how things developed in the past – after all, history tends to rhyme.Let’s focus on what happened when the net speculative positions were significantly (!) negative and then they became significantly (!) positive, without paying attention to tiny moves (like the one that we saw last summer).In short, rallies that began with extreme pessimism include:The big 2008 rally (over 16 index points)The big 2009 – 2010 rally (over 14 index points)The 2011 – 2012 rally (over 11 index points)The 2013 rally (“only” over 5 index points)The big 2014 – 2015 rally (over 20 index points)The 2018 rally (over 15 index points)The current rally started at about 89, so if the “normal” (the above shows what is the normal course of action) happens, the USD Index is likely to rally to at least 94, but since the 5-index point rally seems to be the data outlier, it might be better to base the target on the remaining 5 cases. Consequently, one could expect the USD Index to rally by at least 11 – 20 index points, based on the net speculative positions alone. This means the upside target area of about 105 – 114. Consequently, a comeback to the 2020 highs is not only very likely, but also the conservative scenario.In addition, let’s keep in mind that the very bullish analogy to the 2018 rally remains intact. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that back in 2018, the USD Index rallied sharply and then corrected back to its previous highs. And in similar fashion, the current weakness is nearly identical. More importantly, though, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level sitting just below the USD Index’s 50-day MA, the cavalry is already on the way.Please see below:The current correction is much bigger than what we saw in mid-April 2018, so it seems that what we see right now is more of an analogy to what we saw in June 2018. That was the first big correction after the breakout – above the 50-day moving average and the declining blue resistance line – that definitively ended the yearly decline.I marked the situation from 2018 that seems similar to what we see right now with a dashed, horizontal line. Back in 2018, the pullback ended when the USD Index moved to its first Fibonacci classic retracement level (the 38.2% one). In case of the current rally, I marked those retracements with red. The USD Index is already below the first two (taking today’s pre-market decline into account) and it seems to be on its way to reach the final – most classic – 61.8% retracement. This kind of retracement provides substantial short-term support and it’s something that’s likely to trigger a rebounding.This retracement is slightly above the 90.7 level, and at the moment of writing these words, the USD Index is trading at 91.14. This means that the USD Index can reach its very strong short-term support any day – or hour – now.The very important detail about the June 2018 decline (and bottom) is that while this was the moment after which the USD Index’s started to move higher at a slower pace, it was also the moment after which the precious metals market started to decline faster.At the beginning of the year, I wrote that the precious metals market was likely to decline and that the preceding rally was likely fake. That’s exactly what happened.Right now, I’m writing that the recent rally was also fake (a correction within a medium-term decline) and – even more importantly – it seems likely that the next downswing could take place at a higher pace than what we saw so far this year. And – just as was the case in 2018 – this upcoming (fast) decline is likely to lead to the final bottom in the precious metals sector.Of course, just because the bottom is likely to be formed in the following months, doesn’t mean that it’s in at this time or that it’s a good idea to ignore the bearish implications of the situation in the USD Index (as well as other indications pointing to lower gold prices).As further evidence, the USD Index’s 2020 decline has not invalidated its long-term breakout. And with the long-term implications taking precedence over the medium- and short-term ones, the USDX still has its guns pointed in the right direction.Adding reinforcements to its infantry, the USD Index also has another ally in the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield. After sitting out much of the rally in 2020, the former has been following in the latter’s footsteps since the New Year’s Day. And while the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield’s frailty has been a negative over the last two weeks, the dynamic could be about to flip.Please see below:Trending in the opposite direction of the USD Index futures, non-commercial (speculative) futures traders have moved from net-long to net-short the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note . For context, bond prices move inversely of yields, so a lower U.S. 10-Year Treasury results in a higher U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield. And after non-commercial (speculative) futures traders reduced their long positions by nearly 43,000 contracts and increased their short positions by more than 44,000 contracts, speculators went from being net-long nearly 84,600 contracts to net-short nearly 2,700 contracts.Please see below:As a result, if the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield and the USD Index engage in an all-out offensive, their military might could indicate the death knell for the precious metals. Case in point: if you analyze the table below, you can see that gold, silver and the mining stocks often move inversely to the U.S. dollar.The bottom line?Given the magnitude of the 2017-2018 upswing , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. And in the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term.Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’s absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is doing (and likely to do) better than the Eurozone and Japan, and it’s this relative outperformance that matters , not the strength of just one single country or monetary area. After all, the USD Index is a weighted average of currency exchange rates, and the latter move on a relative basis.In conclusion, the generals have mapped out their strategies, soldiers have manned the perimeter, and the loser of the upcoming battle will likely end up losing the war. However, with the precious metals being outmanned and outgunned, the USD Index will likely plant its victory flag, while gold, silver and the mining stocks are forced to retreat and regroup. As a result, a major fallback is likely before the precious metals can resume their long-term uptrend. Due to the USD’s breakdown below the 50% retracement, they could decline in the very near term (while gold rallies a bit more – say to $1,800 or so), but don’t let that trick you into thinking that the next big move is going to the upside. In my view, that’s actually likely to be an important top that’s then going to be followed by an even more important decline in the precious metals and mining stocks. Then, after several weeks or months of declines, PMs can bottom and finally soar without huge declines on the horizon.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Several economic indicators have surprised us on the positive side. Nevertheless, the price of gold has rebounded.Finally! The price of gold has been rising recently . As the chart below shows, the yellow metal rebounded from the late March bottom of $1,684 to above $1,770 on Friday (Mar. 16). This could be a promising start to the second quarter of 2021, which looks better than the first.As you know, gold struggled at the beginning of the year, falling under strong downward pressure created by the improving risk appetite and rising bond yields . But the strength of these factors has begun to fade. You see, it seems that economic confidence has reached its maximum level, and it could be difficult for markets to become even more euphoric.Please take a look at the chart below which shows the level of credit spreads – as you can see, they have fallen to very low levels, which implies that they won’t get much lower than they are right now. So, it appears that the next big move will rather be a rise in credit spreads or a decline in economic confidence.Second, it seems that the rally in bond yields has run out of fuel , at least for a while. The U.S. long-term real interest rates reached their peak of minus 0.56% on March 18 of this year. Since then, they are in a sideways or even downward trend, declining to almost -0.70% last week, as you can see in the chart below.As I explained earlier several times, the markets didn’t buy the Fed’s story of allowing inflation to rise substantially without hiking interest rates for several weeks or even months. However, it seems that Powell and his colleagues have finally managed to convince investors that they are really serious about the new framework, which puts full employment over inflation.Of course, there are also positive geopolitical factors contributing to the rebound in the gold prices . The tensions between the U.S. and China, as well as the U.S. and Russia, have been rising recently. However, it seems that the decline in bond yields allowed gold to catch its breath, and that the macroeconomic outlook – including the credit spreads, interest rates, inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy – will remain the key driver of gold prices throughout the year.Implications for GoldWhat does all this mean for the price of the yellow metal? Well, the recent jump in the price of gold is encouraging. What is important here is that this rebound occurred amid the flood of positive economic data . For instance, the initial jobless claims have decreased to 576,000, a lower level than expected and the lowest since the pandemic started, as the chart below shows.Additionally, retail sales surged 9.8% in March , following a 2.7% decline in February, while the Fed’s Beige Book reported that “national economic activity accelerated to a moderate pace from late February to early April”. Additionally, both the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and the Empire State manufacturing index surprised us on the a positive side.The fact that gold held its gains and continued the rebound even after the publication of several positive economic reports is bullish . Of course, it might be simply the case that the reduction in the real interest rates simply outweighed other indicators, but it’s also possible that gold’s bears got tired.Indeed, the sentiment was so negative in the gold market that it couldn’t get much worse than it already was. Gold shined brightly during the Great Lockdown and economic crisis . But now, when the economy is recovering, gold has become persona non grata . However, this might imply that we are either close to or we have already reached the bottom. Only time will tell, of course, but the macroeconomic outlook seems to be rather friendly for the price of gold, especially if the real interest rates stop rising or even start declining again.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Not every price advance is the same in its validity. Let us have a look at why recent Silver price movements are so promising:Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, The giveaway:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of April 21st, 2021.A glance at the daily chart above shows with green arrows our entry points on Silver over the last three weeks. We post all entries (and exits) in real-time in our free Telegram channel. The very first three entries (green arrows to the left) were based on momentum. We stepped up to the plate finding fractal volume support, and use the contrarian approach to step into momentum to take advantage of the action/reaction principle supporting our Quad exit strategy for quick risk mitigation of early partial profit-taking.Another look shows that at points A, B, and C, the lows of each retracement (leg 1,2,3) are very modest in percentage. Meaning the bears didn’t get a foot in the door. Consequently, we built a more aggressive position size. We took advantage of low-risk entry points again.The final giveaway that price might pierce through the central heart at US$26 of a previous congestion zone is marked with a yellow circle. For four days, price rejected this distribution zone, represented by the long wicks to the upside. But at no time was there a follow-through of price decline to the downside from bears attempting to short US$26.We now find ourselves positioned well with ten runners left:SymbolDATEentryfin 50%1st target 25%2nd target 25%(= runner)XAGUSD3/3023.780000023.870000023.9500000XAGUSD3/3124.300000024.380000024.8300000XAGUSD4/124.280000024.710000024.8400000XAGUSD4/424.588000024.688000024.8440000XAGUSD4/524.780000025.000000025.1400000XAGUSD4/1224.690000024.930000025.3500000XAGUSD4/1325.300000025.420000025.9700000XAGUSD4/1925.715000025.800000026.0700000XAGUSD4/2025.755000025.940000026.5470000XAGUSD4/2025.930000026.000000026.0350000  Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, The original plan and its risk:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 1st, 2021.We posted this monthly chart three weeks ago in our weekly chartbook. Our long-term plan is in motion just as strategized. It is necessary now that we have eliminated the risk to expand our projections and set target zones for our ten runners. We consider them as one whole position unit. We visualize this progression in the following chart.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Silver, Read the moves:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of April 21st, 2021.We find ourselves not only in a risk-free position but have pocketed some substantial profits. We also carry a 2.5 typical position size in runners (10x 25% of standard size).This allows for opening up to a more significant risk/reward-ratio. We changed our original target near all-time highs to a runner target now at US$73.33 (based on Fibonacci number sequencing). The financing target for half of the position size is set to US$28.77. We will exit another 25% position size as well at US$47.63. These targets are based on fractal volume analysis of distribution zones.Silver, Read the moves:When dealing with more complex methods of risk elimination, position building, transfer time frames, and money management, it is essential to read the market right. While most follow hunches, leverage, or simplified money management and are at most times not even aware of the risk they are taking on, we scrutinize the market in its development of turning points to not arrive at unrecoverable risk positions. Trading isn’t about maximizing profits. It is a constant evaluation of probabilities and market behavior to ride market cycles like surfer ocean waves.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 22nd, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

We've been talking a lot about the long-term downtrend of gold that's been the case since July 2020. Frequently, the price goes above and below that channel but then inevitably gets back into it. Since the end of 2020, that channel's upside has been mostly coinciding with the 100-MA. Now, golf is up there testing 100-MA below $1,800. Will it break the trend then?First, even if it does, the trend may still stay valid just like it's been before: 80% of the time, the price was within the channel, but 20% still saw it deviate from the trend. Therefore, what we see now is just a possible breakout - whether it'll be a true trend change, only time will show: fo that, the changing configuration of the Moving Averages will serve as an indicator; so far, they're all aligned in a downward formation.Second, gold may go as high as 200-MA at $1,850 just as it did twice previously. That all will not be an impediment for it to get back down into the channel: whatever the bullish breakaway is, it won't change the trend unless it goes beyond the resistance of the 200-MA at $1,850. Lastly, observe an interesting thing: there is a double top at $1,955, and there is a double bottom at $1,680. The gold price failed to cross either. That suggests a possibility that in the coming months, it'll trade between the two revolving around the core channel of $1,800-1,850. Let's watch it!Download the FBS Trader app to trade anytime anywhere! For personal computer or laptop, use MetaTrader 5!

Remember how every month in 2021 started off hot and then saw a pullback and volatility occur by the second half of the month? Welcome to the second half of April.After switching my calls on the SPDR S&P ETF (SPY) and the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) a week ago (Apr. 16), both have declined over 1% and are on track for their first losing weeks in more than a month.Despite the month’s promising start with blowout jobs reports, stronger-than-expected earnings, the lowest jobless claims in months, and more, remember how I said to stay vigilant on inflation and potential tax hikes?Well, the market on Thursday (Apr. 22) tanked thanks to rumblings that President Biden could hike the capital gains tax rate for those earning over $1 million. This isn’t just some ordinary tax hike either. Biden would essentially double the current tax rate of 20% to 39.6% for those wealthy investors and hike it as high as 43.4% for the richest of the rich.Not to mention President Biden has been talking for weeks about hiking corporate taxes to 28%.Tax the rich? Guess Mr. President has to fund his spending sprees somehow, no?Although April historically has been the strongest month for stocks over the past 20 years, with the S&P 500 witnessing gains in 14 of the past 15 years, not everything is smooth sailing right now. Especially if you’re a SPAC or a speculative sector.In fact, for the broader market, I’d even caution that we may be at or around a peak, with most of the good news priced in already. Despite what’s been a rough week, the Dow and S&P are still at historically high levels. According to Binky Chadha , Deutsche Bank’s chief U.S. equity strategist, we could see a significant pullback between 6% and 10% over the next three months because of potentially full valuations and inflation fears.My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.With that said, to sum it up:We could see more volatility and more muted gains than what we’ve come to know over the last year.April is historically strong, but please monitor overvaluation, inflation, bond yields, and potential tax hikes. Be optimistic but realistic. A decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, appears unlikely. Yet, we could eventually see a minor pullback by the summer, as Deutsche Bank said.Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck. Is the S&P Still Too Frothy?Figure 1- S&P 500 Large Cap Index $SPXOn the one hand, according to Sanford C. Bernstein strategists, the S&P 500 index could double by the end of the decade and reach 8,000.Historically, we could really be at a strong entry point for the long-term too. Over two weeks ago, we marked the first anniversary of this bull market. Historically, S&P 500 bull markets since 1957 on average resulted in price gains of 179% and lasted an average of 5.8 years.Because the S&P 500 has risen just about 84.81% since March 23, 2020, if history tells us anything, we may just be getting started.Furthermore, earnings season is off to a roaring start, with companies crushing estimates. There’s no reason to believe this will end either. Not to mention, it’s April, historically the strongest month for stocks.On the other hand, despite this week’s minor pullback, the S&P 500 continues to hover around record highs as it approaches 4200 for the first time in its history. It’s also potentially historically overvalued. I’m more worried about valuations than I am excited about earnings.Also, I’m not pleased about potential tax hikes for this frothy market.I don’t see this as a buyable index at the moment. While it’s not quite as frothy as it was a week ago and more of a HOLD as of April 23, 2021, if it pops anymore, it could be more sellable. I’d prefer a deeper pullback.HOLD. The S&P has skyrocketed to unprecedented levels and valuations, but strong earnings could give the index some momentum. For an ETF that attempts to directly correlate with the performance of the S&P 500, the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) is a great option.For more of my thoughts on the market, such as tech, inflation fears, and why I love emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Matthew Levy, CFA Stock Trading Strategist Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Revolution, baby! There is growing acceptance for an aggressive fiscal policy, which could be supportive for gold prices from the fundamental, long-term point of view.We live in turbulent times. The pandemic is still raging and will most likely have lost lasting effects on our society. But a revolution is also happening right before our eyes. And I don’t mean another storming of the U.S. Capitol or the clash of individual investors with big fish on Wall Street. I have in mind something less spectacular but potentially more influential: a macroeconomic revolution.I refer here to the growing acceptance of easy fiscal policy . In the aftermath of the Great Recession , the central banks adopted an aggressive monetary policy , slashing interest rates to almost zero and introducing quantitative easing . It has become a new norm since then.But fiscal policy was another kettle of fish. Although almost nobody cared about balanced government budgets, people at least pretended to worry about overly large fiscal deficits and an overly quick accumulation of public debt . For example, while Obama wanted $1.8 trillion in fiscal stimulus in a response to the global financial crisis of 2007-09, Congress passed a package of about $800 billion, as Republicans opposed larger spending. But in March 2020, Congress passed the CARES act worth about $2 trillion (and additional significant stimulus in December 2020), with the full support of Republicans.Even Germany – the country famous for its fiscal conservatism – ran a fiscal deficit in 2020 and – what’s more – agreed to issue bonds jointly with other EU countries, although it was previously a taboo. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), another bastion of economic orthodoxy, which advocated for austerity and balanced budgets for years, gave up during the epidemic and started to call for more fiscal stimulus to fight the economic crisis .And this fiscal revolution is already seen in data. As the chart below shows, the U.S. fiscal deficit has increased from 4.6 percent of GDP in 2019 (which was already at an elevated level) to 15 percent of GDP in 2020, the highest level in the post-war era.According to the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor Update from January 2021 , fiscal deficits amounted to 13.3 percent of GDP , on average, in advanced economies, in 2021, a spike from 3.3 percent seen in 2019. As a consequence, the gross global debt approached 98 percent in 2020 and it’s projected to reach 99.5 percent of the world’s GDP by the end of this year.What is important to note here is that government support wasn’t limited mainly to the financial institutions and big companies (such as automakers), as was the case in 2009, but it was distributed more widely. There was a huge direct money transfer to Main Street, including checks for practically all citizens. This is important for two reasons.First, money flowing into the economy through nonfinancial institutions and people’s accounts may be more inflationary. This is because money doesn’t stay in the financial market where it mainly raises asset prices, but it’s more likely to be spent on consumer goods, boosting the CPI inflation rate . Higher officially reported inflation (and relatively lower asset prices) should support gold , which is seen by investors as an inflation hedge .Second, the direct cash transfer to the people creates a dangerous precedent. From now, each time the economy falls into crisis, people will demand checks. It means that fiscal responses would have to be increasingly larger to meet the inflated expectations of the public. It also implies that we are approaching a universal basic income, with its mammoth fiscal costs and all related negative economic and social consequences.Summing up, we live in revolutionary times. The old paradigm that “central banks are the only game in town” has been replaced by the idea that fiscal policy should be more aggressively used. Maintaining balanced budgets is also a dead concept – who would care about deficits when interest rates are so low?However, assigning a greater role to fiscal policy in achieving macroeconomic goals increases the risk of higher inflation and macroeconomic instability, as politicians tend to be pro-cyclical and reckless. After all, the economic orthodoxy that monetary policy is better suited to achieve macroeconomic stability didn’t come out from nowhere, but from awful experiences of the fiscal follies of the past. I’m not a fan of central bankers, but they are at least less short-sighted than politicians who think mainly about how to win the next election and stay in power.Hence, the growing acceptance of easy fiscal policy should be positive for gold prices , especially considering that it will be accompanied by an accommodative monetary policy. Such a policy mix should increase the public debt and inflation, which could support gold prices. The caveat is that investors have so far welcomed more stimulus flowing from both the Fed and the Treasury. But this “go big” approach of Powell and Yellen increases the longer-term risk for the economy, which could materialize – similar to the pandemic – sooner than anyone thought.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get a 7-day no-obligation trial for all of our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

Indicators are pointing to gold and mining ETFs running out of breath. They don’t seem to have what it takes to the move to the finish line.Despite gold, silver and mining stocks’ recent corrective upswings, the precious metals are running out of steam. After bursting off of the lows – while failing to recognize that it’s a marathon and not a sprint – the precious metals’ late-week breather signals that their stamina isn’t what it used to be.Moreover, with false breakouts and sanguine sentiment causing an adrenaline rush that’s likely to fade, the precious metals’ transformation from stalwart to sloth could leave investors feeling increasingly dejected.Case in point: with the HUI Index (a proxy for gold mining stocks ) already verifying the breakdown below the neckline of its bearish H&S pattern – which didn’t occur until later in 2008 – the miners’ outlook is actually more bearish now than it was then.Please see below:To explain, note that the 2007 – 2008 and the 2009 – 2012 head and shoulders patterns didn’t have the right shoulders all the way up to the line that was parallel to the line connecting the bottoms. I marked those lines with green in the above-mentioned formations. In the current case, I marked those lines with orange. Now, in both cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02.That’s why I previously wrote that “it wouldn’t be surprising to see a move to about 300 in the HUI Index”. And that’s exactly what we saw – the recent high was slightly above 299.This means that the recent rally is not a game-changer, but rather a part of a long-term pattern that’s not visible when one focuses on the short-term only.The thing is that the vast majority of individual investors and – sadly – quite many analysts focus on the trees while forgetting about the forest. During the walk, this might result in getting lost, and the implications are no different in the investment landscape.From the day-to-day perspective, a weekly – let alone monthly – rally seems like a huge deal. However, once one zooms out and looks at the situation from a broad perspective, it’s clear that:“What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.” (-Ecclesiastes 1:9)The rally is very likely the right shoulder of a broad head and shoulders formation. “Very likely” and not “certainly”, because the HUI Index needs to break to new yearly lows in order to complete the pattern – for now, it’s just potential. However, given the situation in the USD Index (i.a. the positions of futures traders as seen in the CoT report , and the technical situation in it), it seems very likely that this formation will indeed be completed. Especially when (not if) the general stock market tumbles.In addition, three of the biggest declines in the mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here), all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the decline exceeded the size of the head of the pattern.Can we see gold stocks as low as we saw them last year? Yes.Can we see gold stocks even lower than at their 2020 lows? Again, yes.Of course, it’s far from being a sure bet, but the above chart shows that it’s not irrational to expect these kind of price levels before the final bottom is reached. This means that a $24 target on the GDX ETF is likely conservative.In addition, mining stocks are currently flirting with two bearish scenarios:If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early 2020 high.If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.I know, I know, this seems too unreal to be true… But wasn’t the same said about silver moving below its 2015 bottom in 2020? And yet, it happened.Keep in mind though: scenario #2 most likely requires equities to participate. In 2008 and 2020, the sharp drawdowns in the HUI Index coincided with significant drawdowns of the S&P 500 . However, with the words ‘all-time high’ becoming commonplace across U.S. equities, the likelihood of a three-peat remains relatively high.Senior Miners: GDX ETFMoving on to the GDX ETF, the senior miners were unable to hold the upper trendline of their corrective zigzag pattern. Similar to the price action in late 2020/early 2021, the GDX ETF rallied slightly above the upper trendline of its roughly one-and-a-half-month channel before eventually rolling over. More importantly, though, the GDX ETF’s failure in early 2021 ended up being a prelude to the senior miners’ severe drawdown.Please see below:Furthermore, with the senior miners likely to peak in the coming days, the GDX ETF is poised to move from the right shoulder of its bearish H&S pattern. Following in the HUI Index’s footsteps, the GDX ETF’s correction back to the high of its left shoulder signals that the upward momentum has likely run its course.If that wasn’t enough, the GDX ETF’s stochastic oscillator is also flashing a clear sell signal. If you analyze the two red arrows positioned at the bottom of the chart above, you can see that the black line has once again crossed the red line from above. As a result, the GDX ETF’s days are likely numbered.Junior Miners: GDXJ ETFAs further evidence on this bearish scenario, let’s take a look at other proxies for the mining stocks. When analyzed through the lens of the GDXJ ETF, the junior miners remain significant underperformers.Please see below:To explain, the GDXJ ETF is now back below its late-Feb. highs - please note how weak it remains relative to other proxies for mining stocks. Unlike the HUI or the GDX, the GDXJ didn’t move visibly above its late-Feb. highs and it had already invalidated this small breakout.Moreover, the GDXJ/GDX ratio has been declining since the beginning of the year, which is remarkable because the general stock market hasn’t plunged yet. This tells us that when stocks finally slide, the ratio is likely to decline in a truly profound manner – perhaps similarly to what we saw last year.So, how low could the GDXJ ETF go?Well, absent an equity rout, the juniors could form an interim bottom in the $34 to $36 range. Conversely, if stocks show strength, juniors could form the interim bottom higher, close to the $42.5 level. For context, the above-mentioned ranges coincide with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and the GDXJ ETF’s previous highs (including the late-March/early-April high in case of the lower target area). Thus, the S&P 500 will likely need to roll over for the weakness to persist beyond these levels.Also, contrasting the GDX ETF’s false breakout, both the HUI and the XAU indices ended the week below the necklines of their previous (based on the rising necklines) bearish H&S patterns. Moreover, if you analyze the right side of the charts below, while both the HUI and XAU indices initially bounced above their necklines, investors quickly sold the rallies.Mirroring the GDX ETF, both indices are also eliciting sell signals from their stochastic oscillators. And with the GDX ETF the only wolf still howling at the moon, expect the senior miners to follow the rest of the pack lower in the near future.Also, eliciting bearish undertones, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio has recorded a major, confirmed breakdown. And with the ratio nowhere near recapturing its former glory, it’s another sign that the GDX ETF is a significant outlier.Please see below:When the ratio presented on the above chart above is rising, it means that the HUI Index is outperforming the S&P 500. When the line above is falling, it means that the S&P 500 is outperforming the HUI Index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the ratio has broken below its rising support line. For context, the last time a breakdown of this magnitude occurred, the ratio plunged from late-2017 to late-2018. Thus, the development is profoundly bearish.Playing out as I expected, a sharp move lower was followed by a corrective upswing back to the now confirmed breakdown level (which is now resistance). Mirroring the behavior that we witnessed in early 2018, after breaking below its rising support line, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio rallied back to the initial breakdown level (which then became resistance) before suffering a sharp decline. And with two-thirds of the analogue already complete, the current move lower still has plenty of room to run. Likewise, the early-2018 top in the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio is precisely when the USD Index began its massive upswing. Thus, with history likely to rhyme, the greenback could spoil the miners’ party once again.In addition, the HUI to S&P 500 ratio broke below the neck level (red, dashed line) of a broad head-and-shoulders pattern and it verified this breakdown by moving temporarily back to it. The target for the ratio based on this formation is at about 0.05 (slightly above it). Consequently, if the S&P 500 doesn’t decline, the ratio at 0.05 would imply the HUI Index at about 196. However, if the S&P 500 declined to about 3,200 or so (its late-2020 lows) and the ratio moved to about 0.05, it would imply the HUI Index at about 160 – very close to its 2020 lows.All in all, the implications of mining stocks’ relative performance to gold and the general stock market are currently bearish.But if we’re headed for a GDX ETF cliff, how far could we fall?Well, there are three reasons why the GDX ETF might form an interim bottom at roughly ~$27.50 (assuming no big decline in the general stock market ):The GDX ETF previously bottomed at the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels. And with the 61.8% level next in line, the GDX ETF is likely to garner similar support.The GDX ETFs late-March 2020 high should also elicit buying pressure.If we copy the magnitude of the late-February/early-March decline and add it to the early-March bottom, it corresponds with the GDX ETF bottoming at roughly $27.50.Keep in mind though: if the stock market plunges, all bets are off. Why so? Well, because when the S&P 500 plunged in March 2020, the GDX ETF moved from $29.67 to below $17 in less than two weeks. As a result, U.S. equities have the potential to make the miners’ forthcoming swoon all the more painful.The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM)As another reliable indicator (in addition to the myriads of signals coming not only from mining stocks, but from gold, silver, USD Index, stocks, their ratios, and many fundamental observations) the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) isn’t at levels that trigger a major reversal. The Index is now approaching 47. However, far from a medium-term bottom, the latest reading is still more than 37 points above the 2016 and 2020 lows.Back in 2016 (after the top), and in March 2020, the buying opportunity didn’t present itself until the $BPGDM was below 10.Thus, with the sentiment still relatively elevated, it will take more negativity for the index to find the true bottom.The excessive bullishness was present at the 2016 top as well and it didn’t cause the situation to be any less bearish in reality. All markets periodically get ahead of themselves regardless of how bullish the long-term outlook really is. Then, they correct. If the upswing was significant, the correction is also quite often significant.Please note that back in 2016, there was an additional quick upswing before the slide and this additional upswing caused the $BPGDM to move up once again for a few days. It then declined once again. We saw something similar also in the middle of 2020. In this case, the move up took the index once again to the 100 level, while in 2016 this wasn’t the case. But still, the similarity remains present.Back in 2016, when we saw this phenomenon, it was already after the top, and right before the big decline. Based on the decline from above 350 to below 280, we know that a significant decline is definitely taking place.But has it already run its course?Well, in 2016 and early 2020, the HUI Index continued to move lower until it declined below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The emphasis goes on “below” as this retracement might not trigger the final bottom. Case in point: back in 2020, the HUI Index undershot the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and gave back nearly all of its prior rally. And using the 2016 and 2020 analogues as anchors, this time around, the HUI Index is likely to decline below 231. In addition, if the current decline is more similar to the 2020 one, the HUI Index could move to 150 or so, especially if it coincides with a significant drawdown of U.S. equities.The NASDAQCircling back to the NASDAQ Composite, the unwinding of excessive speculation could deliver a fierce blow to the gold miners. Case in point: when the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, the NASDAQ lost nearly 80% of its value, while the gold miners lost more than 50% of their value.Please see below:Right now, the two long-term channels above (the solid blue and red dashed lines) show that the NASDAQ is trading well above both historical trends.Back in 1998, the NASDAQ’s last hurrah occurred after the index declined to its 200-day moving average (which was also slightly above the upper border of the rising trend channel marked with red dashed lines).And what happened in the first half of 2020? Well, we saw an identical formation.The similarity between these two periods is also evident if one looks at the MACD indicator . There has been no other, even remotely similar, situation where this indicator would soar so high.Furthermore, and because the devil is in the details, the gold miners’ 1999 top actually preceded the 2000 NASDAQ bubble bursting. It’s clear that miners (the XAU Index serves as a proxy) are on the left side of the dashed vertical line, while the tech stock top is on its right side. However, it’s important to note that it was stocks’ slide that exacerbated miners’ decline. Right now, the mining stocks are already declining, and the tech stocks continue to rally. Two decades ago, tech stocks topped about 6 months after miners. This might spoil the party of the tech stock bulls, but miners topped about 6 months ago…Also supporting the 2000 analogue, today’s volume trends are eerily similar. If you analyze the red arrows on the chart above, you can see that the abnormal spike in the MACD indicator coincided with an abnormal spike in volume. Thus, mounting pressure implies a cataclysmic reversal could be forthcoming.Interestingly, two decades ago, miners bottomed more or less when the NASDAQ declined to its previous lows, created by the very first slide. We have yet to see the “first slide” this time. But, if the history continues to repeat itself and tech stocks decline sharply and then correct some of the decline, when they finally move lower once again, we might see THE bottom in the mining stocks. Of course, betting on the above scenario based on the XAU-NASDAQ link alone would not be reasonable, but if other factors also confirm this indication, this could really take place.Either way, the above does a great job at illustrating the kind of link between the general stock market and the precious metals market ( gold , silver , and mining stocks) that I expect to see also this time. PMs and miners declined during the first part of the stocks’ (here: tech stocks) decline, but then they bottomed and rallied despite the continuation of stocks’ freefall.Even more ominous, the MACD indicator is now flashing a clear sell signal . And because the current reading is analogous to the one that preceded the dot-com bust, the NASDAQ Composite – and indirectly, the PMs – continues to sail toward the perfect storm.With all of that said: how will we know when a medium-term buying opportunity presents itself?We view price target levels as guidelines and the same goes for the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (below 10), but the final confirmation will likely be gold’s strength against the ongoing USDX rally. At many vital bottoms in gold, that’s exactly what happened, including the March bottom.In conclusion, with the gold miners running low on strength, stamina and staying power, their fragile foundation is already crumbling beneath the surface. With the HUI, XAU and GDXJ proxies unable to match wits with the GDX ETF, the lone survivor is unlikely to put up much of a fight going forward. Moreover, with the USD Index poised to bounce off of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (the precious metals have a strong negative correlation with the U.S. dollar), the foursome are likely to huff and puff their way to lower prices. However, after a period of medium-term recovery, the precious metals will be ready to run with the bulls once again.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

The worst may already be behind the euro area’s economy. This bodes well – both the euro, as well as gold, can benefit from it.The Governing Council of the European Central Bank met last week, keeping its monetary policy unchanged. The inaction was widely expected - no surprises here. The June meeting could be much more interesting as the ECB will have to decide whether or not to slow its bond buying under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme that was accelerated in the second quarter of the year. Given the dovish stance of the European policymakers, and the bank’s pledge to provide the markets with favorable financing conditions during the pandemic, we shouldn’t expect any tapering soon.Certainly, there are important dovish parts of the latest ECB’s statement on its monetary policy . It stems from the grim economic situation in the euro area. The real GDP declined by 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it is expected to decrease again in the first quarter of 2021. The nearest future doesn’t look promising:The near-term economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty about the resurgence of the pandemic and the roll-out of vaccination campaigns. Persistently high rates of coronavirus (COVID-19) infection and the associated extension and tightening of containment measures continue to constrain economic activity in the short term.However, investors should always look beyond the near-team outlook. In the medium-term, the situation in the euro area looks much better. As the ECB notes, this is because the current virus wave seems to have peaked in Europe, while the pace of vaccination is accelerating:Looking ahead, the progress with vaccination campaigns, which should allow for a gradual relaxation of containment measures, should pave the way for a firm rebound in economic activity in the course of 2021.Furthermore, the European Union’s 750 billion euro recovery fund has cleared a key court challenge. Last week, the Germany’s constitutional court dismissed objections to the European aid package.All these factors are positive for the euro and, thus, also for the price of gold. As you can see in the chart below, gold was highly correlated with the spread between the American and German long-term government bond yields - the widening divergence in the US and European interest rates that started in August 2020 pushed the yellow metal down.Implications for GoldThe third wave of pandemic has already peaked in Europe; therefore, the old continent may somewhat catch up with the US. This could narrow the divergence in yields, creating downward pressure on the greenback while supporting the gold prices .Another positive factor for the euro and the yellow metal is the fact that although inflation jumped in both the US and the euro area, it’s much higher in the former country as the chart below shows. So, the purchasing power parity could support the common currency, as well as gold, against the greenback.What’s funny here is that Lagarde , just as Powell , argued that inflation “has picked up over recent months on account of some idiosyncratic and temporary factors and an increase in energy price inflation”. Sure, some idiosyncratic and temporary factors helped inflation to soar, but there are always some idiosyncratic and temporary factors. All the same, the central bankers point to them only when inflation rises, never when it declines. They always refer to these factors to justify their dovish bias and easy monetary policy.Of course, it might be the case that inflation won’t materialize, just like it never did after the Great Recession . But this time may be really different due to the surge in the broad money supply and a huge increase in government spending in the form of direct cash transfers to citizens who are hungry for traveling, eating in restaurants, and generally a normal life with all its money-spending. So, inflation is the wild card, which makes it reasonable to have some gold in investment portfolios . Investors should remember that gold is an investor’s asset rather than a demand asset, which means that in periods of reflation , gold initially lags commodities, only to outperform them and shine brightly in later phases.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

As we transition into the early Summer months, we are watching how different market sectors are reacting to the continued shifting of capital over the past 60+ days.  One this is very clear, certain market sectors are strengthening while others have run into resistance and are consolidating.  We believe the next few weeks and months will continue this type of trend where capital continues to shift away from risks and into sectors that show tremendous strength and opportunity.We wrote about how Precious Metals are likely starting a new bullish price trend on April 18, 2021. You can read that research article here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/metals-miners-may-have-started-a-new-longer-term-bullish-trend-part-ii/.We wrote about how the recent bullish price trend was based on a “wall of worry” and how the markets love to climb higher within this environment on April 14, 2021.  You can read that research article here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/us-equities-climb-a-wall-of-worry-to-new-highs/.We also published an article on April 11, 2021 suggesting the Cannabis Sector had reached a Pennant Apex and would likely begin a new bullish price trend after some “shakeout” price volatility near the Pennant Apex.  You can read that research article here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/is-the-cannabis-alternative-sector-rally-ready-to-breakout-again/.XLF May Rally Another 8% - 10% Or MoreToday, we are revisiting a recent research article suggesting the Financial Sector may be poised for another rally trend targeting the $38.00 level first, then the $39.40 level based on our research.  The financial sector continues to trend higher after the COVID-19 market collapse.  Global central banks and government policies are very accommodating to stronger earnings and growth in the Financial sector.  Recently, the US Government passed a new COVID stimulus bill that allocates money for at-risk borrowers to help elevate foreclosure actions.It is very likely that these continued actions to support a stronger US and global recovery will translate into higher price trending in the Financial sector as we move into the Summer months – where weather and Summer activities push people back outside and into more active lifestyles.Using our Fibonacci Measured Move technique, we have identified a support level in XLF near $34.50.  Therefore, as long as price stays above this level, we believe a continued bullish price trend will push future prices towards the target levels near $38.00, then $39.40. We are watching for the next 0.61% Fibonacci level, near $36.93, to be breached as a sign the bullish price trend is accelerating.Although the market may appear to be very extended and overbought, we still believe there is room to run for certain market sectors.  XLF, MJ, GDXJ, SILJ, and many others have recently moved into our watchlist for new bullish trends.  Are you ready for profit from these moves?Identifying the strongest sectors within the current market environment, as well as knowing when price trends generate clear entry triggers, can mean the difference between long-term targeted success and simply guessing at trades.  If you want to take advantage of a strategy that helps you find and execute better market sector trades, then sign up now for my FREE course that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum.For those of you who believe in the power of trading sectors that show relative strength and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day, let my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service do all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my BAN Trader Pro subscribers.Have a great week!

As an asset class, real estate should be a part of every balanced investment portfolio. That's because real estate investments generally have a low correlation to stocks, can offer lower risk, and provide greater diversification.Today about 65% of Americans own a home, but that means that tens of millions of Americans have no exposure to real estate. Making matters worse, becoming a homeowner today is harder than in previous generations, with 1 in 5 millennials believing they will never be able to afford a home. Is there a way to get exposure to the real estate market for as little as $100?Residential real estate market trendFrom the chart below, we can see that the residential real estate market continues to climb and the median price of houses sold in the US is near recent all-time highs of $347,500. Even though mortgage rates remain near all-time lows, the appreciation of prices in certain pockets of the country are making many cities and areas simply unaffordable for most. Things look much the same for industrial, commercial, agricultural, and most other specialized real estate subsectors.how can you invest in real estate through the stock marketThe stock markets offer three different ways you can invest in real estate, and today we will be looking at three of them: REITs, ETNs, and ETFs.A REIT is a real estate investment trust and it generally owns, manages, and/or finances income-producing real estate assets. REITs are generally highly liquid (trading like stocks) and are known to produce steady income through dividends as opposed to focusing on capital appreciation.There are hundreds of REITs, with the most popular focused on retail, residential, healthcare, office, and mortgages. Having REIT status enables those companies to avoid paying taxes at the corporate level as taxes are paid by the investors when they receive distributions of income in the form of dividends.Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!A real estate ETN is unsecured debt of real estate assets, essentially a type of bond with a maturity date (but without interest payments). ETNs do not provide ownership of the underlying assets, but their performance is directly correlated to the performance of those assets.Investors need to be wary that they can lose all of their ETN investment if the underlying debt goes into default. They also face closure risk if the issuer closes the ETN before maturity by paying the prevailing price in the market (potentially creating a loss for the investor). Despite these risks, some investors prefer ETNs because of the tax treatment for long-term ETN holdings.A real estate ETF is the same as any ETF, being a basket of securities in the real estate sector that can be bought and sold on the stock market. Real estate ETFs often focus on a collection of REITs, offering investors a way to diversify their real estate bets without the torture of researching hundreds of REITs. REIT ETFs offer investors to earn dividend income like REITS while also benefiting from higher diversification and greater market liquidity, which are the hallmarks of all ETFs.  what makes a good reit etf?First, you need to decide if you want a mortgage or equity REITs, as well as if you are looking for an objective-specific REIT (like storage facilities) or something more broad and big-picture (like residential real estate). Your REIT ETF should also have a good amount of assets under management in order to keep expense ratios down, and always check to see if the ETF you are interested in has sufficient liquidity.The charts below show you the performance of the three largest real estate ETFs. Each of these ETFs have over $5 billion of assets, are highly liquid, and a slightly different focus in either the index they track or the real estate assets they are comprised of.Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (NYSEARCA: VNQ)Vanguard focuses on US equity REITS with a small allocation to specialized REITS and real estate firms.iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA: IYR)The iShares REIT, above, follows the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index, whereas Schwab’s REIT ETF (below) follows the smaller Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Index. Schwab US REIT ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHH)For those of you that get my daily BAN Hotlist, you will know that real estate triggered a signal more than a month ago indicating the sector to be in an uptrend. Real estate continues to be a top-performing sector, with all three of the biggest ETFs gaining more than 15% so far in 2021. In fact, more than 90% of all real estate ETFs have outperformed the S&P500 this year. When you add in the fact that some of the REIT ETFs are also producing annual dividend rates as high as 7-8%, it becomes clear that real estate ETFs should be part of your portfolio.The strongest sectors are going to continue to be the best performers over time.  Being able to identify and trade these sectors is key to being able to efficiently target profits.  You can learn more about the BAN strategy and how to identify and trade better sector setups by registering for our FREE step-by-step guide. For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts.More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.Happy Trading!

Now, how do these men in charge manipulate the markets precisely? Our findings show that one can see almost infinite creativity to manipulate the investor. You hear endless stories about the use of Silver in green energies. Fact is that we have only 2% of battery-used vehicles in place in the auto industry. Only 5% of green energy based on solar panels using Silver is at present opposing 95% of traditional energy production. So we are talking about long-term projections that are already reflected in the current price speculation.When it comes to industrial use, numbers are more transparent. Still, few see the cycle push back. As soon as silver prices rise, the industry walks away from intense Silver usage. Rather it economizes or uses alternative ways to produce their merchandise. Here we have a near self-regulative counter mechanism from the influences of investor-driven price spikes kept Silver mostly range-bound.What is recently often spoken about is spoofing.While it is true that this method of price speculation, a way where laddering prices and volume distribution manipulate order presentation into the depth of bid and ask, can drive prices artificially, this way of market manipulation is affecting markets only short-term. Meaning you might have found yourself in the less liquid times of the day feeling awkward trading since the bid-ask spread behavior is uncommon. And yes, this can affect stop levels and cause difficulties for order execution.Nevertheless, the significant picture, the long-term picture of monthly and annual charts, is nearly unaffected. These manipulation techniques merely aim to get investor psychology out of balance. Lies have short legs meaning they run themselves out. No one can manipulate a market as deep as the Silver market over extended time frames to the extent that the wealth distribution we are talking about and where your purchase of physical Silver can make the difference of ending up with hyper-inflated currency near worthless or an early stance right now accumulation commodity value that is sustainable for the long term both on the preserving of wealth and creation of wealth.Accept the presence of these short-term lies and liars. Walk steadfastly through this commotion undisturbed with one’s psyche to follow one’s plan. Accumulate repeatedly small amounts of Silver on market dips.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Silver, Taking Profits:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of April 29th, 2021.The daily chart clearly shows that despite many efforts of trying to keep Silver prices low, Silver has advanced twelve percent – a substantial move within four weeks.This warranted us to take partial profits on the overall exposure we created within these weeks (see our last week’s chartbook release for more details). While we see prices continue to rise within the upward green channel, our approach is a conservative one, and with the possibility to retrace to US$25, it seems prudent to take some profits off the table. All our entries and exits are posted in real time on our free Telegram channel.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Always be prepared:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 29th, 2021.A different view from a larger time frame shows that there is a possibility that prices might retrace as far as US$25. We are less focused on what prices might be doing in their highest likelihood. Instead, we take on the extra work to be prepared for any eventuality. This to never find ourselves being surprised by the market. Having a plan for any eventuality allows us to follow price along, and if a price or time picture matches our prepared plans, we execute.We identified the slightly higher probability of prices to advance immediately since we overcame a distribution zone marked with a dark green horizontal line, which now serves as support.Nevertheless, US$25 works like a magnet from what we coined the “beauty principle” and, as such, would be an excellent opportunity for reentry should the market decline to a supply zone of US$24.75 to US$25.27 (see turquoise circle).Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Silver, Lies have short legs:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of April 29th, 2021. bLooking at the weekly chart above, we find prices trading above the point of control (POC) in yellow at US$24.21. This is the core volume node from a volume transaction perspective. Coupled with the harmonious advance and retracement percentage patterns, we find the larger picture bullish and intact. Unharmed of any manipulation tactics that could deter the longer-term picture.In professions where the complex language for relatively simple procedures is used to make these procedures nearly impossible to be transparent, these rules are created to extract participants’ money. While in typical law interpretations, the motive has limited application for sentencing in the regulative markets, the motive is the distinguishing factor of right or wrong. This fact alone should tell one that small investors have the short end in this game. Accepting the realities of being the underdog versus trying to fight it and taking the game and its rules for what it is and still developing systems and edges to come out as a consistent winner is more effective than complaint about injustices. There is always a way… lies have short legs, and the truth will always beat those who only marginally and temporarily get the upper hand briefly at best.Silver, Lies have short legs:The market game is rigged. Which one isn’t? But you can learn the rules and beat them at their own game. The market isn’t the casino where the rules make certain you lose.It is possible to be a consistent winner. You can still find your niche in the market. Yes, you have to improve your performance and stack your odds even more, but you can certainly be on the up and up. Do not be discouraged but instead inspired by the hurdles the market holds for you in-store, and there are plenty. This sport isn’t for the faint-hearted, but the rewards compensate for the hardships more than enough.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|April 22nd, 2021|Tags: Gold, low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

The USD Index let out a roar heard across all markets. The king of the financial jungle arrived, along with the greenback’s largest single-day gain.Just as the African landscape sometimes needs to show the strongest of its inhabitants, so does the less remote but equally ferocious financial environment. This time, the USDX seems to have won the fight – its fangs and claws turned out to be the sharpest, and so are the rallies. There is nothing left for gold and its acquaintances than to run through the forest… run.Sometimes, even jackals need to find shelter to lick their wounds in patience, waiting for a better time to come back to fight. However, they will come back eventually – they always do.What About Gold, One of the Jackals?With a triple-top in gold’s stochastic oscillator akin to three warning signs of a nervous breakdown, the yellow metal is still recovering from last week’s crisis of confidence. And with the price action mirroring what we witnessed in early January – right before gold suffered a significant slide – the yellow metal could soon need therapy.Please see below:To explain, while gold’s corrective upswing was slightly bigger than I had anticipated, please note that the length thereof was in tune with the border of the green ellipse I used to mark the likely upside target area. In other words, the recent rally was not a game-changer . The yellow metal’s inability to crack $1,800 highlights the medium-term implications that I’ve been warning about. As a result, it’s become increasingly clear that gold’s recent strength was nothing more than a short-term upswing within a medium-term downtrend.For more on the significance of gold’s stochastic oscillator, I wrote previously:The first sell signal occurred slightly below the 80 level, the second was above it, and the same was the case with the third one.Since back in early 2021, the stochastic indicator moved to new highs – and so far it hasn’t – and since the USD Index might even move slightly lower before finding its short-term bottom, gold could move slightly higher on a temporary basis, before topping. Perhaps (there are no certainties on any market, but this seems quite possible in the near term) it would be the round nature of the $1,800 level and the 300-day moving average that’s very close to it that would trigger a reversal and another massive decline. From the medium-term point of view, another $20 rally doesn’t really matter. It’s the few-hundred-dollar decline that’s likely to follow that really makes the difference.In addition, it seems that gold is moving in a way that’s somewhat similar to what we saw between mid-April 2020 and mid-June 2020. It’s trading sideways below $1,800 but above ~$1,660. Back in 2020, the range of the back-and-forth movement (size of the short-term rallies and declines) was bigger, but the preceding move was also more volatile, so it’s normal to expect smaller short-term volatility this year (at least during this consolidation).Why is this particularly interesting? Because both consolidations (the mid-April 2020 – mid-June 2020 one and the March 2021 – today one) could be the shoulders of a broad head-and-shoulders pattern, where the mid-June 2020 – early-March 2021 performance would be the head. The breakdown below the neck level – at about $1,660 – would be extremely bearish in this case because the downside target based on the pattern is created based on the size of the head. The target based on this broad pattern would be at about $1,350 (I marked it with a thin dashed red line on the chart below – you might need to click on it to expand it for this line to become visible). Is this level possible? It is. When gold soared above $2,000, almost nobody thought that it would decline back below its 2011 highs (well, you – my subscribers – did know that). Gold below $1,500 seems unthinkable now, but with rallying long-term rates and soaring USD Index, it could really happen.The Lion - USD Index (USDX)After delivering a ferocious 0.75% rally on Apr. 30 – the greenback’s largest single-day gain since Mar. 4 – the USD Index let out a roar that was heard across all corners of the financial markets. And while gold, silver and mining stocks are still cackling in disobedience – as evidenced by the trios’ decelerating correlations over the last 10 days – every once in a while, the lion has to show the jackals who he is.To explain, as the USD Index’s recent plight elicits whispers of a new order in the currency kingdom, the greenback’s stoic behavior has been misjudged as weakness. And while the vultures circle and prophecies of the USD Index’s demise become louder, the lion is slowly moving to his feet.Case in point: with the zeitgeist forecasting new lows for the greenback, non-commercial (speculative) futures traders are still holding firm. Despite the greenback’s suffering, the immaterial decline in net-long positioning last week was relatively muted and highlights investors’ quiet respect for the U.S. dollar.Please see below: Source: COTMoreover, with prior periods of extreme pessimism followed by monumental rallies in the USD Index, unless ‘this time is different,’ it’s simply a matter of when, not if, the U.S. dollar feasts on the precious metals’ overconfidence.To explain, I wrote previously:When net-speculative short interest as a percentage of total open interest (based on the CoT data) became extremely high in 2014 and 2018, the USD Index recoded two of its sharpest rallies in history. How sharp? Well, let’s take a look at how things developed in the past – after all, history tends to rhyme.Let’s focus on what happened when the net speculative positions were significantly (!) negative and then they became significantly (!) positive, without paying attention to any tiny moves (like the one that we saw last summer).In short, rallies that followed periods of extreme pessimism include:The big 2008 rally (over 16 index points)The big 2009 – 2010 rally (over 14 index points)The 2011 – 2012 rally (over 11 index points)The 2013 rally (“only” over 5 index points)The big 2014 – 2015 rally (over 20 index points)The 2018 rally (over 15 index points)The current rally started at about 89, so if the “normal” (the above shows what is the normal course of action) happens, the USD Index is likely to rally to at least 94, but since the 5-index point rally seems to be the data outlier, it might be better to base the target on the remaining 5 cases. Consequently, one could expect the USD Index to rally by at least 11 – 20 index points, based on the net speculative positions alone. This means the upside target area of about 105 – 114. Consequently, a comeback to the 2020 highs is not only very likely, but also the conservative scenario.In addition, let’s keep in mind that the very bullish analogy to the 2018 rally remains intact. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that back in 2018, the USD Index rallied sharply and then corrected back to (roughly) the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. And while the current decline is of a much larger magnitude than what we saw in mid-April 2018, the USD Index is still following its June 2018 analogue by declining slightly below another critical Fibonacci retracement – the 61.8% one. Moreover, amid the greenback’s surge on Apr. 30 – which I warned was forthcoming – the USD Index invalidated its breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The bottom line? The sharp reversal is extremely bullish for the U.S. dollar.More importantly, though, when the USD Index resumed its uptrend in June 2018 – marked by the vertical dashed line near the middle of the chart – the measured move higher also coincided with an accelerated drawdown of gold , silver and mining stocks.Please see below:To explain, I wrote on Apr. 21:I marked the situation from 2018 that seems similar to what we see right now with a dashed, horizontal line. Back in 2018, the pullback ended when the USD Index moved to its first Fibonacci classic retracement level (the 38.2% one). In case of the current rally, it seems that another classic retracement worked – the 61.8% one.The very important detail about the June 2018 decline (and bottom) is that while this was the moment after which the USD Index’s started to move higher at a slower pace, it was also the moment after which the precious metals market started to decline faster.At the beginning of the year, I wrote that the precious metals market was likely to decline and that the preceding rally was likely fake. That’s exactly what happened.Right now, I’m writing that the recent rally was also fake (a correction within a medium-term decline) and – even more importantly – it seems likely that the next downswing could take place at a higher pace than what we saw so far this year. And – just as was the case in 2018 – this upcoming (fast) decline is likely to lead to the final bottom in the precious metals sector.As further evidence, I warned on Apr. 30 that the USD Index was ripe for a reversal. And while entering long positions in the USD Index is an appetizing thought, shorting the gold miners offers much more bang for our buck.I wrote (with regard to possible long positions in the USD Index futures):I would be looking to re-enter long positions as soon as the USD Index confirms the breakout above the declining resistance line. At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is already trading back above this line, so the only thing that it needs to do now is to stay there. Still, given today’s pre-market movement, it seems that we might even see an invalidation of the move below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A weekly close above both levels would be very bullish for the short term and a sign for me to get back to the long positions .But – that is all based on the assumption that I would want to have any position in the USDX. And I don’t because I think that having a short position in mining stocks provides a much better risk-to-reward ratio.That’s exactly what we saw – a weekly close above both levels.Adding even more ferocity to the USD Index’s roar, the recent downtrend has not invalidated its long-term breakout. And with the long-term implications taking precedence over the medium- and short-term ones, the USDX’s uptrend remains intact.Please see below:The bottom line?Given the magnitude of the 2017-2018 upswing , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. In the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term.Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is doing (and likely to do) better than the Eurozone and Japan, and it’s this relative outperformance that matters , not the strength of just one single country or monetary area. After all, the USD Index is a weighted average of currency exchange rates, and the latter move on a relative basis.In conclusion, with mischievous market participants nipping and clawing at the USD Index’s mane, it’s only a matter of time before the greenback strikes back with a vengeance. And while the precious metals consider the USD Index’s territory up for grabs, the greenback’s pride is unlikely to stay hidden for much longer. As a result, while gold, silver and mining stocks’ gaze across the grassland, the sun has likely set on their recent rallies. However, once the wet season washes away the litany of financial-market imbalances, the eventual bloom will allow the precious metals to grow stronger in the long run.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

New spending is coming! And because of that, Biden’s speech to Congress was fundamentally positive for gold.Last week was full of big events. The FOMC released its newest statement on monetary policy meeting, while Powell held the press conference. On the same day, President Joe Biden made his first speech to Congress . Let’s take a look at his words.First of all, Biden laid out his American Jobs Plan , which proposes more than $2 trillion to upgrade US infrastructure and create millions of jobs. No matter that infrastructure spending has no stimulus effect, according to economic research .Second, if you think that $2 trillion is a lot of money, given America’s huge indebtedness, you are clearly wrong. Two trillion is practically nothing and definitely not enough, so Biden proposed another $1.8 trillion American Family Plan in investments and tax credits to provide lower-income and middle-class families with inexpensive childcare.Third, Biden understands that all these expenditures cannot be funded solely by increasing already huge fiscal deficits (see the chart below) and issuing new bonds.So, he proposed a hike in tax rates:It’s time for corporate America and the wealthiest 1% of Americans to pay their fair share. Just pay their fair share (…) We take the top tax bracket for the wealthiest 1% of Americans –those making $400,000 or more – back up to 39.6%.No matter that corporate taxes are implicit taxes on labor and that the current proposals for tax hikes are unlikely to fund the White House’s ambitious plans.Biden also proposed several reforms of the labor market: a 12-week paternal leave for families and an increase of the minimum wage to $15 an hour.So, in short, his speech called for several bold economic policies aiming to increase government spending and strengthen the American welfare state. Sounds good… for gold.Implications for GoldWhat does the Biden speech, and more generally his economic agenda, imply for the precious metals market? Well, it seems that the President cares not only about the workers, but also about the gold bulls. His plan is fundamentally positive for the yellow metal . After all, Biden wants to further increase government spending, which will weaken the long-term pace of economic growth and add to the mammoth pile of the public debt .There are also hints that this massive government spending flowing directly to the citizens could ignite inflation . After all, the US economy has already recovered from the pandemic recession , at least in the GDP terms, as the chart below shows. So, Biden’s economic agenda risks that the economy will overheat igniting inflation.He also adopted a more confrontational stance toward China, which could elevate the geopolitical worries and increase the demand for safe-haven assets such as gold .Another potential benefit is the proposal to raise corporate taxes, which is clearly negative for the US stock market and the greenback . Hence, gold could gain at their expense, especially if we see a pullback in the equity market…Last but not least, the increase in the minimum wage, and other labor market reforms, will not help in a quick employment recovery, so the Fed will maintain its dovish policy for longer. Indeed, we should look at Biden’s message together with the Fed’s signals. Biden proposed trillions of dollars in new spending, while Powell reiterated no hurry to raise interest rates . What a policy mix! We have both easy monetary policy and loose fiscal policy , a golden policy mix , indeed.Gold didn’t react strongly to these events, which is a bit disturbing, but this can be explained by the gains on Wall Street, as investors felt reassured that a financial bonanza would last undisturbed. So, the economic confidence remains high, but if it wanes, especially if inflationary threats come to the surface, gold may perform better.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

The GDX and HUI Index are enjoying a blissful moment. With HUI behaving civilly, will the GDX cling to the unrealistic and try to leap to cloud “ten”?With the GDX ETF punching a hole through its glass ceiling, the senior miners are now witnessing an environment that’s beyond their wildest dreams: sunshine, clear skies and a utopia that’s eluded them since the beginning of the New Year. However, while leaving paradise is often more difficult than arriving, the GDX ETF’s recent vacation is likely coming to an end. And with the senior miners about to resume the daily grind of real life, their optimism will likely fade with the tropical sun.To explain, while the GDX ETF remains on cloud nine, the HUI Index (a proxy for gold mining stocks ) has already left the resort. With the latter’s long-term outlook still intact and its broad head & shoulders pattern remaining on schedule, I wrote previously that the right shoulder would likely form after the HUI Index reaches 300. And after closing at 301.72 on May 7, the BUGS (after all, HUI is called the Gold Bugs Index) are currently living up to expectations.Please see below:Moreover, while corrective short-term upswings within a medium-term downtrend can feel discouraging, it’s important to remember that similar instances occurred in 2008 and 2012. Remember: Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers warned us that the waiting is the hardest part. However, in the end, the wait should be more than worth it.To explain, note that the 2007 – 2008 and the 2009 – 2012 head and shoulders patterns didn’t have the right shoulders all the way up to the line that was parallel to the line connecting the bottoms. I marked those lines with green in the above-mentioned formations. In the current case, I marked those lines with orange. Now, in both cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02.That’s why I previously wrote that “it wouldn’t be surprising to see a move to about 300 in the HUI Index”. And that’s exactly what we saw. To clarify, one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a rising neckline – was already completed, and one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a horizontal neckline – is being completed, but we’ll have the confirmation once miners break to new yearly lows.For more context, I wrote previously:The recent rally is not a game-changer, but rather a part of a long-term pattern that’s not visible when one focuses on the short-term only.The thing is that the vast majority of individual investors and – sadly – quite many analysts focus on the trees while forgetting about the forest. During the walk, this might result in getting lost, and the implications are no different in the investment landscape.From the day-to-day perspective, a weekly – let alone monthly – rally seems like a huge deal. However, once one zooms out and looks at the situation from a broad perspective, it’s clear that:“What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.” (-Ecclesiastes 1:9)The rally is very likely the right shoulder of a broad head and shoulders formation. “Very likely” and not “certainly”, because the HUI Index needs to break to new yearly lows in order to complete the pattern – for now, it’s just potential. However, given the situation in the USD Index (i.a. the positions of futures traders as seen in the CoT report , and the technical situation in it), it seems very likely that this formation will indeed be completed. Especially when (not if) the general stock market tumbles.In addition, three of the biggest declines in the mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here), all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the decline exceeded the size of the head of the pattern.Can we see gold stocks as low as we saw them last year? Yes.Can we see gold stocks even lower than at their 2020 lows? Again, yes.Of course, it’s far from being a sure bet, but the above chart shows that it’s not irrational to expect these kind of price levels before the final bottom is reached. This means that a $24 target on the GDX ETF is likely conservative.In addition, mining stocks are currently flirting with two bearish scenarios:If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early 2020 high.If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.I know, I know, this seems too unreal to be true… But wasn’t the same said about silver moving below its 2015 bottom in 2020? And yet, it happened.Keep in mind though: scenario #2 most likely requires equities to participate. In 2008 and 2020, the sharp drawdowns in the HUI Index coincided with significant drawdowns of the S&P 500 . However, with the words ‘all-time high’ becoming commonplace across U.S. equities, the likelihood of a three-peat remains relatively high.Circling back to the GDX ETF, on May 7, the senior miners inched closer to their May 2020 high. And while the development may seem bullish on the surface, the price action actually creates symmetry between the GDX ETF’s left and right shoulders. With May 2020’s peak occurring at nearly the same level, a move lower from here would only enhance the validity of the GDX ETFs H&S pattern.On top of that, this is the third time that the GDX ETF has poked its head above the upper trendline of its roughly one-and-a-half-month channel. An ominous sign, the GDX ETF’s swoon in late 2020/early 2021, occurred precisely after the senior miners delivered their third act. Furthermore, a small breakout without confirmation is akin to a promise from a friend that can’t keep his word. Thus, with the GDX ETF still underperforming gold on a relative basis, it’s important to analyze the recent price action within its proper context.Please see below:For more context, I wrote on May 5:The history might not repeat itself, but it does rhyme, and those who insist on ignoring it are doomed to repeat it. And there’s practically only one situation from more than the past four decades that is similar to what we see right now.It’s the early 2000s when the tech stock bubble burst. It’s practically the only time when the tech stocks were after a similarly huge rally. It’s also the only time when the weekly MACD soared to so high levels (we already saw the critical sell signal from it). It’s also the only comparable case with regard to the breakout above the rising blue trend channel. The previous move above it was immediately followed by a pullback to the 200-week moving average, and then the final – most volatile – part of the rally started. It ended on significant volume when the MACD flashed the sell signal. Again, we’re already after this point.The recent attempt to break to new highs that failed seems to have been the final cherry on the bearish cake.Why should I – the precious metals investor care?Because of what happened in the XAU Index (a proxy for gold stocks and silver stocks ) shortly after the tech stock bubble burst last time.What happened was that the mining stocks declined for about three months after the NASDAQ topped, and then they formed their final bottom that started the truly epic rally. And just like it was the case over 20 years ago, mining stocks topped several months before the tech stocks.Mistaking the current situation for the true bottom is something that is likely to make a huge difference in one’s bottom line. After all, the ability to buy something about twice as cheap is practically equal to selling the same thing at twice the price. Or it’s like making money on the same epic upswing twice instead of “just” once.And why am I writing about “half” and “twice”? Because… I’m being slightly conservative, and I assume that the history is about to rhyme once again as it very often does (despite seemingly different circumstances in the world). The XAU Index declined from its 1999 high of 92.72 to 41.61 – it erased 55.12% of its price.The most recent medium-term high in the GDX ETF (another proxy for mining stocks) was at about $45. Half of that is $22.5, so a move to this level would be quite in tune with what we saw recently.And the thing is that based on this week’s slide in the NASDAQ that followed the weekly reversal and the invalidation, it seems that this slide lower has already begun.“Wait, you said something about three months?”Yes, that’s approximately how long we had to wait for the final buying opportunity in the mining stocks to present itself based on the stock market top.The reason is that after the 1929 top, gold miners declined for about three months after the general stock market started to slide. We also saw some confirmations of this theory based on the analogy to 2008. Consequently, we might see the next major bottom – and the epic buying opportunity in the mining stocks – about three months after the general stock market tops. The NASDAQ might have already topped, so we’re waiting for the S&P 500 to confirm the change in the trend.The bottom line?New lows are likely to complete the GDX ETF’s bearish H&S pattern and set the stage for an even larger medium-term decline. And if the projection proves prescient, medium-term support (or perhaps even the long-term one) will likely emerge at roughly $21.But why ~$21?The target aligns perfectly with the signals from the GDX ETF’s 2020 rising wedge pattern. You can see it in the left part of the above chart. The size of the move that follows a breakout or breakdown from the pattern (breakdown in this case) is likely to be equal (or greater than) the height of the wedge. That’s what the red dashed line marks.The target is also confirmed when applying the Fibonacci extension technique. To explain, if we take the magnitude of the GDX ETF’s recent peak-to-trough decline and extrapolate it by multiplying it by the Fibonacci sequence, the output results in a target adjacent to $21. I used the Fibonacci retracement tool to show that in the above chart. Interestingly, the same technique was useful in 2020 in order to time the March bottom.The broad head-and-shoulders pattern with the horizontal neckline at about $31 points to the $21 level as the likely target.Likewise, when analyzing the situation through the lens of the GDXJ ETF, the junior miners are eliciting the same bearish signals. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that despite the recent strength, the GDXJ ETF is still trading below its medium-term rising support line (the thick black line below). More importantly, though, with the junior miners failing to reclaim this key level, their bearish H&S pattern remains intact.Even more ominous, the GDXJ ETF remains a significant underperformer of the GDX ETF. Despite sanguine sentiment and a strong stock market creating the perfect backdrop for the junior miners, the GDXJ ETF has failed to live up to the hype.To explain, I wrote previously:GDXJ is underperforming GDX just as I’ve been expecting it to. Once one realizes that GDXJ is more correlated with the general stock market than GDX is, GDXJ should be showing strength here, and it isn’t. If stocks don’t decline, GDXJ is likely to underperform by just a bit, but when (not if) stocks slide, GDXJ is likely to plunge visibly more than GDX.Expanding on that point, the GDXJ/GDX ratio has been declining since the beginning of the year, which is remarkable because the general stock market hasn’t plunged yet. However, once the general stock market suffers a material decline, the GDXJ ETF’s underperformance will likely be heard loud and clear.Please see below:So, how low could the GDXJ ETF go?Well, absent an equity rout, the juniors could form an interim bottom in the $34 to $36 range. Conversely, if stocks show strength, juniors could form the interim bottom higher, close to the $42.5 level. For context, the above-mentioned ranges coincide with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and the GDXJ ETF’s previous highs (including the late-March/early-April high in case of the lower target area). Thus, the S&P 500 will likely need to roll over for the weakness to persist beyond these levels.Moreover, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio has recorded a major, confirmed breakdown. And with the ratio nowhere near recapturing its former glory, it’s another sign that a storm is brewing. Moreover, after moving back and forth for the last few months, not only has the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio broken below its rising support line (the upward sloping black line below), but the ratio has also broken below the neckline of its roughly 12-month H&S pattern (the dotted red line below). As a result, given the distance from the head to the neckline, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio is on a collision course back to (at least) 0.050.Please see below:When the ratio presented on the above chart above is rising, it means that the HUI Index is outperforming the S&P 500. When the line above is falling, it means that the S&P 500 is outperforming the HUI Index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the ratio has broken below its rising support line. For context, the last time a breakdown of this magnitude occurred, the ratio plunged from late-2017 to late-2018. Thus, the development is profoundly bearish.Playing out as I expected, a sharp move lower was followed by a corrective upswing back to the now confirmed breakdown level (which is now resistance). Mirroring the behavior that we witnessed in early 2018, after breaking below its rising support line, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio rallied back to the initial breakdown level (which then became resistance) before suffering a sharp decline. And with two-thirds of the analogue already complete, the current move lower still has plenty of room to run. Likewise, the early-2018 top in the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio is precisely when the USD Index began its massive upswing. Thus, with history likely to rhyme, the greenback could spoil the miners’ party once again.In addition, the HUI to S&P 500 ratio broke below the neck level (red, dashed line) of a broad head-and-shoulders pattern, and it verified this breakdown by moving temporarily back to it. The target for the ratio based on this formation is at about 0.05 (slightly above it). Consequently, if the S&P 500 doesn’t decline, the ratio at 0.05 would imply the HUI Index at about 196. However, if the S&P 500 declined to about 3,200 or so (its late-2020 lows) and the ratio moved to about 0.05, it would imply the HUI Index at about 160 – very close to its 2020 lows.All in all, the implications of mining stocks’ relative performance to gold and the general stock market are currently bearish.But if we’re headed for a GDX ETF cliff, how far could we fall?Well, there are three reasons why the GDX ETF might form an interim bottom at roughly ~$27.50 (assuming no big decline in the general stock market ):The GDX ETF previously bottomed at the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels. And with the 61.8% level next in line, the GDX ETF is likely to garner similar support.The GDX ETFs late-March 2020 high should also elicit buying pressure.If we copy the magnitude of the late-February/early-March decline and add it to the early-March bottom, it corresponds with the GDX ETF bottoming at roughly $27.50.Keep in mind though: if the stock market plunges, all bets are off. Why so? Well, because when the S&P 500 plunged in March 2020, the GDX ETF moved from $29.67 to below $17 in less than two weeks. As a result, U.S. equities have the potential to make the miners’ forthcoming swoon all the more painful.In conclusion, with gold, silver and mining stocks staying at the same springtime resort, their departure from reality implies plenty of jet lag at the end of their trip. And with the clock ticking, passengers boarding and their flight nearing takeoff, a return to real life is just around the corner. Moreover, with the USD Index long overdue for some R & R, a reversal of fortunes could leave the precious metals suffering severe envy. Thus, while gold, silver and mining stocks have enjoyed nothing but sun, sand and surf over the last few weeks, the pile of work that awaits them will likely keep them swamped over the medium term.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Gold scored some victories over the past days, but it’s playing a risky game. One misstep and the yellow metal might lose the war.Sometimes, a good strategist needs to give up a few battles to eventually win the war. Or, at least, convince their enemy that they’re defeated while preparing a counterattack. Just the same, a chess player may need to sacrifice a piece in order to checkmate a king. Sun Tzu has spoken, and the Art of War translates well here.In the world of trading, the same rules often apply. A good investor needs to give up a few unfavorable days to eventually score a final victory. Again, controlling one’s emotions and adhering to patience are key. These principles are important when waiting out gold’s temporary upswings in a medium-term downswing, and also when waiting for gold’s eventual ascent. Don’t let short-term intraday moves cloud your vision.Yesterday (May 11), I wrote that the rally in gold and stocks might have just burnt itself out, and the markets didn’t wait long to agree with me.Is it 100% certain that the top is in? Absolutely not, as there are no certainties in any market, and sound position management should be utilized at all times. But based on what happened yesterday, and what we saw in today’s pre-market trading, the odds that the corrective top is already in have greatly increased.Let’s take a look at the charts for details, starting with the stock market .The Influence of the Stock MarketThe markets are self-similar (which is another way of saying that they have a fractal nature), which generally means that while the history tends to rhyme, it also tends to rhyme in similar shapes of alike or various sizes.For example, the rally from 2018–2020 seems very similar to the rally from 2020 to the present.Both rallies started after a sharp decline, and the first notable correction took the form of back-and-forth trading around the previous high. I marked those situations with green rectangles.Then the rally continued with relatively small week-to-week volatility. I created rising support lines based on the final low of the broad short-term consolidation and the first notable short-term bottom.This line was broken, and some back-and-forth trading followed, but it was only about half of the previous correction in terms of price and time.Then, we saw a sharp rally that then leveled off. And that was the top . The thing that confirmed the top was the visible breakdown below the rising support line right after stocks invalidated a tiny breakout to new highs. That’s what happened in February 2020, and that’s what happened this month.Combining this with the recent underperformance of the NASDAQ (the previous leader which just moved to new monthly lows) suggests that this might have indeed been the top.“But why didn’t the mining stocks or silver end yesterday’s session higher given the above, and the fact that stocks declined yesterday? Any tips on that?”I see two likely reasons.One is that the stock market reversed before the end of the day, so many investors and traders might have thought that the correction was already over, and they were eager to jump back into the market. This would explain why mining stocks (and GameStop) ended yesterday’s session higher.The second reason is that miners don’t necessarily slide right after the top. Sometimes, they tend to move back and forth, testing the previous high (on lower volume).That’s what happened in early January 2021, and that’s what happened yesterday. Did it change anything with regard to the bearish implications of the current situation? Not at all. Besides, the most bearish thing about gold stocks is visible on the long-term HUI Index chart.The HUI IndexWhile corrective short-term upswings within a medium-term downtrend can feel discouraging, it’s important to remember that similar instances occurred in 2008 and 2012. And to some extent also in early 2000.The head and shoulders patterns from 2007 – 2008 and from 2009 – 2012 had the final tops – the right shoulders – very close to the price where the left shoulders topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02.This week’s intraday high in the HUI Index was 307.56, and yesterday’s closing price (the highest closing price we saw recently) was 302.92. That’s one-tenth of an index point away from the left shoulder’s top; if the HUI slides from here – which seems likely – we’ll have a near-perfectly symmetrical H&S pattern with very bearish implications for the following weeks and months.I previously wrote that “it wouldn’t be surprising to see a move to about 300 in the HUI Index”. And that’s exactly what we saw. To clarify, one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a rising neckline – was already completed, and one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a horizontal neckline – is being completed, but we’ll have the confirmation once miners break to new yearly lows.Consequently, the recent rally is not a game-changer, but rather a part of a long-term pattern that’s not visible when one focuses on the short term only.Let’s get back to the broader tops for a while.Gold, Its Battles and the WarIn August 2020 – at the top – gold’s peak was forming over approximately 4 trading days, and it plunged on the fifth day.At the beginning of this year – at the yearly top – gold was peaking for 2-4 trading days (depending on how one treats the initial daily decline that was then followed by a small corrective upswing) and it plunged on the fifth day.Today is the fourth day of what is likely to become a topping pattern (we will know for sure only after gold slides). Consequently, the fact that gold didn’t slide profoundly yesterday (except for the intraday decline) is not odd at all. Conversely, it’s in tune with the previous topping patterns.Moreover, please note that since gold is repeating (to some extent) its 2011-2013 performance (actually, more of an average of gold’s trading performances from the above period and from 2008), it’s particularly normal for it to form a broader top here.I previously wrote that the situation is similar to 2008 in a way and to 2012-2013 in a slightly different way. When I’m looking at it now, it’s quite normal that the gold market is mixing both previous performances. But it’s always easy to see things with the benefit of hindsight.In 2008, before the final slide, we had clearly lower lows as well as lower highs. During the 2012-2013 consolidation we had a more or less horizontal pattern that was then followed by the final slide. Right now, we have something in between – we have lower highs and lower lows, but it’s not as clear as it was in 2008.Back in 2008, it took gold 29 weeks to move from the initial (March 2008) top to the final (October 2008) top.Back in 2011-2013, it took gold 55 weeks to move from the initial (September 2011) top to the final (October 2013) top.The arithmetic average of the above is 42 weeks, and last week was the 39 th week after the August 2020 top. If gold stops here or shortly, it will be almost right in the middle of the similarity between both periods.Consequently, the way gold and mining stocks are performing now is perfectly normal for a medium-term decline – it’s not a game-changer. The medium-term forecast for gold remains bearish.What’s Going on With the Euro?Let’s get back to the issue of head and shoulders patterns – this time in the context of the currency markets.What one might not notice at first sight, but what is very important, the USD Index just invalidated a small breakdown below the head-and-shoulders pattern, and it rallied back above its neckline. This is a classic buy sign and a sign that the breakdown below the rising support line will be invalidated shortly.There’s also a potential head and shoulders pattern present in the euro.The European currency moved to the line that’s parallel to the rising neck level of the potential head and shoulders pattern. If it now declines and moves to new yearly lows, the situation will be extremely bearish – what is more, not only for the euro but also for the precious metals market, which tends to move in tune with the dollar competitor.As far as silver is concerned, there’s not much new to report – my forecast for silver hasn’t become more bullish recently. The white metal continues to repeat its 2019-2020 performance, and it’s after a short-term period of outperformance relative to gold, which indicates major tops. Unlike gold or mining stocks, silver recently moved to its early-2021 high.Interestingly, please note that silver is repeating more or less the same pattern from the past that the general stock market does. And we all know what happened to silver (and mining stocks) when the general stock market plunged in March 2020.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

It’s been a massive rally over the last 15 months in the crypto sector since bitcoin bottom at US$3,800 on March 13th, 2020. reaching price at around US$65,000 bitcoin saw a price explosion of more than 1,600%! Now however the sector seems ripe for some form of a healthy pullback and a breather. Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-term!ReviewBitcoin year to date, Daily Chart as of May 10th, 2021. Source: TradingviewSince the beginning of the year, the price of Bitcoin has increased by almost 100%. Thus, the outperformance of Bitcoin compared to almost all other asset classes continued mercilessly. It seems as if bitcoin, or rather the crypto sector, wants to suck up everything like a black hole.Bitcoin´s waning momentum is a warning signalHowever, the Bitcoin markets have also been witnessing an increasingly waning momentum since late February. In particular, the pace of the rise had slowed down more and more since prices pushed above US$60,000 in March for the first time. Although another new all-time high was reached on April 14th at around US$65,000, the bulls are showing more and more signs of fatigue after the spectacular rally. Interestingly enough, this last new all-time high coincided exactly with the stock market debut of Coinbase.Only a few days later, a significant price slide down to just under US$50,000 happened, which was caused by a huge wave of liquidations. According to data provider Bybt, traders lost a total of more than US$10.1 billion that Sunday through liquidations forced by crypto exchanges. More than 90% of the funds liquidated that day came from bullish bets on Bitcoin or other digital currencies. In this regard, the world’s largest crypto exchange Binance was at the center of the earthquake with liquidation worth nearly US$5 billion. As the price of bitcoin fell, many of these bets were automatically liquidated, putting further pressure on the price and leading to a vicious cycle of further liquidations. Many (especially inexperienced) crypto traders were wiped out without warning.Year to date gains sorted by market-cap. Source Messari, May 10th 2021.After a quick recovery back to US$56,000, bitcoin continued its correction and fell back to US$47,000 by April 25. Since then, it has managed a remarkable recovery, as the bitcoin bulls are trying hard to restart the uptrend. So far, this recovery has at least reached a high of US$59,600. Nevertheless, the price development of bitcoin remains rather tough until recently, while numerous altcoins and so called “shitcoins” experienced incredible price explosions in recent weeks.The exciting question now is whether the current recovery remains just a countermove within a larger correction or whether the turnaround has already been seen and Bitcoin is therefore on the way to new all-time highs?Technical Analysis For Bitcoin in US-DollarBitcoin, Weekly Chart as of May 13th, 2021. Source: Tradingview.On the weekly chart, bitcoin has been stuck at the broad resistance zone between US$58,000 and US$65,000 for the past two and a half months. At the same time, the bulls continue trying to break out of the uptrend channel which is in place since 14 months. However, the recent pullback has so far only begun to clear the overbought situation, if at all. A somewhat larger pullback or simply the continuation of the consolidation would certainly do the market good. On the downside, the support zone between US$41,000 and US$45,000 remains the predestined support zone in case the bears should actually show some more penetration. If, on the other hand, price rise above approx. US$61,000, the chances for a direct continuation to new all-time highs increases quite a lot.Weekly Chart with a fresh sell signalOverall, the big picture remains bullish and higher bitcoin prices remain very likely in the medium to longer term. However, since reaching US$ 58,000 for the first time at the end of February, bitcoin has been increasingly weakening in recent weeks. Another healthy pullback towards the support zone of US$41,000 to US$45,000 USD could recharge the bull´s batteries. With fresh powers a breakout to new all-time highs in the summer is likely. Obviously, a good buying opportunity cannot be derived from the weekly chart at the moment. Rather, the stochastic sell signal calls for patience and caution.Bitcoin, Daily Chart as of May 13th, 2021. Source: TradingviewOn the daily chart, bitcoin slipped out of a bearish wedge on April 14th and has been attempting a countermovement since the low at just under US$47,000. However, this recovery is somewhat tenacious and currently hangs on the upper edge of the uptrend channel. Given the overbought stochastic and the relatively large distance to the exponential 200-day moving average (US$41,694), another pullback has an increased probability. The liquidation wave on April 18th clearly showed how quickly the whole thing can slide, given the exuberant speculation with derivatives and leverage.Of course, the bulls (and thus rising prices) have always a clear advantage in a bull market. Also, in view of the huge monetary expansions, speculation on the short side is not recommended. One is better advised with regular partial profit-taking (without selling one’s core long positions completely) as well as a solid liquidity reserve, with which one can take advantage of the opportunities that arise in the event of more significant pullbacks. The blind “buy & hold” or “hodl” strategy has also proven its strengths and can rightfully be maintained given the bullish medium to longer-term outlook.Daily Chart now on a sell signalSummarizing the daily chart, bitcoin is so far “only” in a countermovement within the pullback that began on April 14th. Only with a breakout above approx. US$61,000 the bulls would clearly be gaining the upper hand again. In this case, a rally towards approx. US$69,000 USD becomes very possible. On the downside, however, bitcoin prices below US$53,000 would signal that the bears have successfully fended off the breakout above the upper edge of the uptrend channel in the short term. The next step would then be a continuation of the correction and thus lower prices in the direction of the support zone around US$44,000 as well as the rising exponential 200-day moving average.Sentiment Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-termBitcoin Optix as of May 9th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderThe rather short-term “Bitcoin Optix” currently reports a balanced sentiment. What is striking is the fact that the last sentiment highs since February have always been weaker. I.e. the sentiment momentum is falling. At the same time, the temporary panic on April 25th brought an exaggeration to the downside (panic low = green circle), with which the ongoing recovery can be explained.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of May 12th, 2021. Source: Crypto Fear & Greed Index The much more complex and rather long-term “Crypto Fear & Greed Index” currently indicates a slightly exaggerated optimism or “increased greed”.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of May 12th, 2021. Source: SentimentraderIn the very long-term comparison, sentiment is somewhat overly optimistic.Overall, quantitative sentiment analysis is increasingly sending warning signals. In particular, the decreasing momentum of the sentiment peaks with simultaneously exploding altcoin prices must be taken seriously. Therefore, a contrarian entry opportunity is definitely not present in the crypto space. Instead, one is well advised to wait patiently for the next wave of panic or liquidation.Seasonality Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-termBitcoin seasonality. Source: SeasonaxStatistically, the sideways spring phase for bitcoin ends at the beginning of May. This has often been followed by a sharp rally into June. However, this year bitcoin only reached an important high on April 14th and has been consolidating since then. Hence, the seasonal pattern doesn’t really match up with this year’s price action so far.In conclusion, the seasonality is basically changing from neutral to green these days. However, the course of the year has not been in line with the seasonal pattern. A continuation of the consolidation therefore seems more likely.Sound Money: Bitcoin vs. GoldBitcoin/Gold-Ratio as of May 10th, 2021. Source: TradingviewAt prices of US$58,075 for one bitcoin and US$1,835 for one troy ounce of gold, the bitcoin/gold-ratio is currently trading at around 31.7. This means that you currently have to pay almost 32 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. Put the other way around, one troy ounce of gold currently costs about 0.03 bitcoin. Thus, bitcoin has been running sideways against gold at a high level for a good month and a half.You want to own Bitcoin and gold!Generally, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense to the extent that one balances the allocation in those two asset classes! At least 10% but better 25% of one’s total assets should be invested in precious metals physically, while in cryptos and especially in bitcoin one should hold at least between 1% and 5%. If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoin, you can certainly allocate much higher percentages to bitcoin on an individual basis. For the average investor, who is primarily invested in equities and real estate, 5% in the still highly speculative and highly volatile bitcoin is a good guideline!Overall, you want to own gold as well as bitcoin, since opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, warm and cold, we are bound by the necessary attraction of opposites. In this sense you can view gold and bitcoin as such a pair of strength. With the physical component of gold and the pristine digital features of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of a true safe haven for the 21st century. You want to own both! – Florian GrummesMacro Outlook and Crack-Up-BoomFED Balance Sheet. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 7th 2021.The U.S. Federal Reserve’s total assets continued to rise in recent weeks, reaching a new all-time high of USD 7,810 billion. The biggest increase was in holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, which rose by USD 25.66 billion to a total of USD 5,040 billion.ECB Balance Sheet. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 4th 2021.The ECB balance sheet also reached a new all-time high of EUR 7,568 billion. Driven by ultra-lax monetary policy (quantitative easing), total assets rose by a further EUR 9.7 billion. The ECB balance sheet is now equivalent to 76.2% of euro area GDP.Bloomberg Commodity Index. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 5th 2021.Due to these massive monetary expansions, the consequences of this irresponsible central bank policy are now slowly but surely becoming more and more apparent. For example, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has more than doubled since March 2020 and most recently rose to its highest level since 2011. Numerous commodities are reaching new highs, fueling inflation fears. The loss of confidence in fiat currencies typical of the crack-up boom is taking hold. This mass psychological phenomenon is gradually building up and may already be unstoppable. The accelerating crack-up boom is the ideal environment for precious metals, commodities and cryptocurrencies.Mentions of Inflation. © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 5th 2021.Even Bank of America (BofA) recently acknowledged in a commentary that “inflation is here.” In doing so, they referenced the exploded number of mentions of “inflation.”Conclusion: Bitcoin – Caution, the crypto sector is getting a bit overheated in the short-termEthereum new all-time highs © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 10, 2021.One of the main beneficiaries of the increasing flight out of the fiat systems in recent months has been cryptocurrencies. First and foremost, it was bitcoin which led the way up for the entire sector. Now, the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum, has risen to a new all-time high well above $4,300. Ethereum dominance reached a new record of 19%. Since the beginning of the year, Ethereum has thus gained nearly 500%.Bitcoin Dominance © Holger Zschaepitz via Twitter @Schuldensuehner, May 10, 2021.The market capitalization of the entire crypto sector did reach more than US$2.5 trillion. Mainly due to the price explosion in Ethereum and Altcoins during recent weeks, Bitcoin dominance had been fading down to below 44%.Ethereum Market Capitalization © Messari via Twitter @RyanWatkins_, May 10, 2021.With a Bitcoin dominance of below 40%, however, the air has always been very thin for altcoins in the past, and sharp pullbacks followed in 2017 and 2018. The speculative madness became particularly dramatic in the case of the fun and meme coin Dogecoin. This essentially worthless coin has been rising from US$0.005 to US$0.672 in just a few months, making it worth almost as much as the Daimler Group. Once again, the markets are thus providing an example of the extent to which the vast quantities of fiat currencies created out of thin air are distorting everything and fueling wild speculation.Be careful, be patient!Overall, it is imperative to advise caution in the current environment. While a long-term top in bitcoin is not yet in sight, a significant correction or sharp pullback should not come as a surprise and would be good for the overheated sector. The “worst case” envisages a pullback in the direction of around US$44,000. In this area, bitcoin would already be a buying opportunity again. In this scenario, the altcoins would temporarily but very likely take a severe beating. Subsequently, bitcoin could take the lead again and march on towards US$100,000 once this pullback is done. Alternatively, the tenacious sideways consolidation continues until bitcoin prices above US$61,000 confirm the continuation of the rally to new all-time highs.Analysis sponsored and initially published on May 10th, 2021, by www.celticgold.eu. Translated into English and partially updated on May 13th, 2021.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Florian Grummes|May 13th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, bitcoin crashing, Bitcoin dominance, Bitcoin Sentiment, bitcoin/gold-ratio, crypto analysis, cryptocurrency, Dogecoin, Ethereum, Ethereum correction, Gold, technical analysis|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Florian GrummesFlorian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 20 years of experience in financial markets. He is specialized in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and technical analysis. He is publishing weekly gold, silver & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. He is also running a large telegram Channel and a Crypto Signal Service. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the markets. Since April 2019 he is chief editor of the cashkurs-gold newsletter focusing on gold and silver mining stocks. Besides all that, Florian is a music producer and composer. Since more than 25 years he has been professionally creating, writing & producing more than 300 songs. He is also running is own record label Cryon Music & Art Productions. His artist name is Florzinho.Florian GrummesPrecious metal and crypto expertwww.midastouch-consulting.comFree newsletterSource: www.celticgold.eu

The only chance to participate in a rigged game and come out ahead is beating them in their own game. One way of stacking the odds in your favor is to recognize patterns within the markets, and market manipulation is just that, a pattern.We believe strongly that Silver prices will see new all-time highs by the end of the year. We also believe in a high probability for Silver prices to reach near triple-digit price levels. And we know just because one knows direction and targets does not mean one arrives at these prices with a position intact or a position at all.Here are a few examples of what we mean.Silver in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, The minefield:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 13th, 2021.We tried to illustrate that a single event of chart characteristics could point towards volatility or otherwise trading instrument characteristics on the daily chart above. The sum of all variances of Silver events, although points clearly at aiming to discourage the investor and short-term traders alike. Typically the daily time frame is the entry time frame for longer-term plays like weekly and monthly time frame setups. It is challenging to find propper low-risk entry points. Here are the obstacles for the market participant to enter the market:dark cloud cover and bullish engulfing candlestick patterns are extreme reversal patterns typically much rarer in occurrenceeach range gets its highs and lows taken out which can be described “fishing for stops” (orange boxes)the sheer amount of yellow wicks shows the general volatility and challenges for low-risk stop placementconsistent pattern failuresfollow up day retracement levels of 70 to 90 percent are outside the normrare but extreme trend days irrespective of the market is trending or rangingJust to name a few. Silver in US-Dollar, 60 Minute Chart, But that is not all:Silver in US-Dollar, hourly chart as of May 13th, 2021.Since our recent chartbook release about spoofing activities in the Silver market, we have been feverishly working on identifying various intraday market behaviors that are atypical to typical market behavior as a whole and the Silver market specifically. Our findings confirmed that individual patterns aren’t uncommon, but the sheer sum of patterns is definitely not normal.A look at the intraday 60-minute chart above, a time frame entry tool often used for daily and weekly time frame setups, is concerning:Every extreme gets faded.Reversal patterns are dominating the field.Previous days lows get gunned for stops.Ranges get spiked out for stops to be hit in both directions.Range expansions are happening in both directions.And all this by observing just a few days back. There is much more.Silver in US-Dollar, 60 Minute Chart, The cure:Silver in US-Dollar, 60 minute chart as of May 13th, 2021.So what can be done? Let us rather focus on solutions versus a minefield of obstacles. The most predominant patterns we found were volume and time-based. A market this thick can not sustain manipulation through the significant market hour activity of the world taking place. Moves getting artificially faded mainly before the Asian session open and the British market open for Silver. To protect your risk, you need to enter the market at the following time slot and counter fade: 20:30 EST to 21:30 EST. We found this time segment the one of least risk when used in conjunction with our Quad exit strategy, which allows for risk mitigation by taking shortly after entry half of the position of the table.The chart illustrates with green and red horizontal lines that at each day at this same time, an imminent move follows to allow for this first target of risk elimination to get hit. It also shows that volume increases at this point to substantiate a more real move versus the prior artificial fades. We also suggest trading small in size and instead build long-term position out of runners (again, view our Quad exit strategy).In addition, we advise against scalping and frequent intraday trading. Instead, we find stepping away from the noise and trading monthly charts to be an intelligent way to protect wealth. The most secure way of participating in the Silver market is to accumulate physical holdings.Gold in US-Dollar, Daily Chart, Silver’s market manipulation is your way in:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 14th, 2021.Pick your spots wisely. Overtrading in minefield conditions is risk expansive. A top-down approach from a longer-term directional perspective should guide when to engage in the market. The daily chart above shows one such substantial directional support. When prices reach the green line again (linear regression channel), the 60 min entry strategy based on time of day (20:30 EST to 21:30 EST) and a keen eye on your volume bars is vital to participate in a low-risk manner to get a piece of the pie.One more thing! It is much more proficient to work with a volume-based support measurement tool (yellow line) for transactional support versus typical TA tools of horizontal support and resistance lines.Silver’s market manipulation is your way in:Market participation is an endless path of hurdles overcome and a honing of difficult to acquire skillset in a challenging profession. Market manipulation is as old as time. Complaining about it doesn’t benefit but your ego. Taking the role of a detective instead and examining the market with curiosity for its complexity of rules or, in this case, manipulated rules to then build in opposition a rule set that provides advantages for your market plays is a more proper approach.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 14th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

Easy choices lead to a hard life (or at least losses), and because gold’s downside move is delayed, it’s extremely easy to be bullish on gold right now.It’s easy to get carried away by the day-to-day price action, and it’s even easier to feel the emotions that other market participants are feeling while looking at the same short-term price action. Right now, it’s tempting to be bullish on gold. It’s “easy” to be bullish on gold while looking at what happened in the last 1.5 months. But what’s easy is rarely profitable in the long run.“Easy choices – hard life. Hard choices – easy life” – Jerzy GregorekLet’s get beyond the day-to-day price swings. The Fed has been keeping the interest rates at ultra-low levels for many months, and it has just pledged to keep them low for a long time. The world is enduring the pandemic, and the amount of money that entered the system is truly astonishing. The savings available to investors skyrocketed. The USD Index has been beaten down from over 100 to about 90. And yet, gold is not at new highs. In fact, despite the 2020 attempt to rally above its 2011 high, gold’s price collapsed, and it invalidated the breakout above these all-important highs. It’s now trading just a few tens of dollars higher than it had been trading in 2013, right before the biggest slide of the recent years.Something doesn’t add up with regard to gold’s bullish outlook, does it?Exactly. Gold is not yet ready to soar, and if it wasn’t for the pandemic-based events and everything connected to them, it most likely wouldn’t have rallied to, let alone above its 2011 highs before declining profoundly. And what happens if a market is practically forced to rally, but it’s not really ready to do so? Well, it rallies… For a while. Or for a bit longer. But eventually, it slides once again. It does what it was supposed to do anyway - the only thing that changes is the time. Everything gets delayed, and the ultimate downside targets could increase, but overall, the big slide is not avoided.Let’s say that again. Not avoided, but delayed.And this is where we are right now. In the following part of the analysis, I’m going to show you how the situation in the USD Index is currently impacting the precious metals market, and how it’s likely to impact it in the following weeks and months.Riding investors’ emotional roller coaster, the love-hate relationship between financial markets and the USD Index is quite absurd. However, with alternating emotions often changing like the seasons, the greenback’s latest stint in investors’ doghouse could be nearing its end. Case in point: with the most speculative names in the stock market enduring a springtime massacre, beneath the surface laughter has already turned into tears. And while gold, silver and mining stocks have been buoyed by the intense emotional high that’s only visible on the surface, it’s only a matter of time before the veneer is lifted.To that point, while I won’t romanticize the USD Index’s recent underperformance, it’s important to remember that extreme pessimism is often the spark that lights the USD Index’s fire.Please see below:To explain, the bars above track various market participants’ four-week allocations to the U.S. dollar, while the horizontal light blue line above tracks the USD Index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that fund flows have fallen off of a cliff in recent weeks. However, if you analyze the behavior of the USD Index near Jan-20, Jan-21 and Mar-21, you can see that extremely pessimistic fund flows are often followed by short-term rallies in the USD Index. As a result, with the latest readings already breaching -4 (using the scale on the left side of the chart), USD-Index bears have likely already offloaded their positions.What’s more, not only did the USD Index end last week up by 0.10%, but the greenback invalidated the breakdown below its head & shoulders pattern – which is quite bullish – and also invalidated the breakdown below its rising dashed support line (the black line below). Moreover, while the greenback fell below the latter again on May 14, the short-term weakness is far from a game-changer as the breakdown is not confirmed.Please see below:On top of that, with the USD Index hopping in the time machine and setting the dial on 2016, a similar pattern could be emerging. To explain, I wrote on May 11:While the self-similarity to 2018 in the USD Index is not as clear as it used to be (it did guide the USDX for many weeks, though), there is also another self-similar pattern that seems more applicable now. One of my subscribers noticed that and decided to share it with us (thanks, Maciej!).Here’s the quote, the chart, and my reply:Thank you very much for your comprehensive daily Gold Trading Reports that I am gladly admitting I enjoy a lot. While I was analyzing recent USD performance, (DX) I have spotted one pattern that I would like to validate with you if you see any relevance of it. I have noticed the DX Index performing exactly in the same manner in a time frame between Jan. 1, 2021 and now as the one that started in May 2016 and continued towards Aug. 16. The interesting part is not only that the patterns are almost identical, but also their temporary peeks and bottoms are spotting in the same points. Additionally, 50 daily MA line is almost copied in. Also, 200 MA location versus 50 MA is almost identical too. If the patterns continue to copy themselves in the way they did during the last 4 months, we can expect USD to go sideways in May (and dropping to the area of 90,500 within the next 3 days) and then start growing in June… which in general would be in line with your analysis too.Please note the below indices comparison (the lower represents the period between May-Dec 2016 and higher Jan – May 2021). I am very much interested in your opinion.Thank you in advance.And here’s what I wrote in reply:Thanks, I think that’s an excellent observation! I read it only today (Monday), so I see that the bearish note for the immediate term was already realized more or less in tune with the self-similar pattern. The USDX moved a bit lower, but it doesn’t change that much. The key detail here would be that the USDX is unlikely to decline much lower, and instead, it’s likely to start a massive rally in the next several months - that would be in perfect tune with my other charts/points.I wouldn’t bet on the patterns being identical in the very near term, though, just like the late June 2016 and early March 2021 weren’t that similar.As soon as the USD Index rallies back above the rising support line, the analogy to 2016 will be quite clear once again –the implications will be even more bullish for the USDX and bearish for the precious metals market for the next several months.Please note that back in 2016, there were several re-tests of the rising support line and tiny breakdowns below it before the USD Index rallied. Consequently, the current short-term move lower is not really concerning, and forecasting gold at much higher levels because of it might be misleading. I wouldn’t bet on the silver bullish forecast either. The white metal might outperform at the very end of the rally, but it has already done so recently on a very short-term basis, so we don’t have to see this signal. And given the current situation in the general stock market – which might have already topped – silver and mining stocks might not be able to show strength relative to gold at all.If that wasn’t enough, the USD Index’s long-term breakout remains intact . And when analyzing from a bird’s-eye view, the recent weakness is largely inconsequential.Please see below:Moreover, please note that the correlation between the USD Index and gold is now strongly negative (-0.92 over the last 10 days) and it’s been the case for several weeks now. The same thing happened in early January 2021 and in late July – August 2020. These were major tops in gold.The bottom line?After regaining its composure , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. In the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term.Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is doing (and likely to do) better than the Eurozone and Japan, and it’s this relative outperformance that matters , not the strength of just one single country or monetary area. After all, the USD Index is a weighted average of currency exchange rates and the latter move on a relative basis.In conclusion, with investors and the USD Index likely headed toward reconciliation, the greenback’s medium-term prospects remain robust. With macroeconomic headwinds aligning with technical catalysts, investors’ risk-on inertia is already showing cracks in its foundation. And with the USD Index considered a safe-haven currency, a reversal in sentiment will likely catapult the USD Index back into the spotlight. Moreover, with gold, silver and mining stocks often moving inversely to the U.S. dollar, the mood music will likely turn somber across the precious metals market. The bottom line? With the metals’ mettle likely to crack under the forthcoming pressure, their outlook remains profoundly bearish over the next few months.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Gold recovered after a downward response to the surge in inflation. What’s next for the yellow metal?Gold rebounded after an initially bearish reaction to the BLS report showing that inflation soared 4.2% in April year-to-year. This means we have an inflation annual rate doubling the Fed’s target and the highest since the Great Recession as the chart below shows.It might now seem counterintuitive, but traders worried that the jump in the CPI would force the Fed to tighten its monetary policy earlier than anticipated. However, it seems that the US central bank managed to convince the markets that it would remain dovish for a very long period and that April’s inflation reading wouldn’t accelerate the first hike of the federal funds rate .Indeed, on Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that the Fed would need “several more months of data” before considering modifications to its stance. He added “now is the time we need to be patient, steely-eyed central bankers, and not be head-faked by temporary data surprises.” So, don’t fight the Fed, interest rates will stay at zero for several months, thus supporting the yellow metal!After all, the Fed’s narrative is that the current inflation is transitory . Of course, the April surge was partially caused by a 10% increase in the cost of new, as well as used cars and trucks – this accounted for a great part of the overall rise. Interestingly enough, the massive spike in car prices was in part generated by temporary supply-chain disruptions, i.e., the shortage of microchips used in automobile production.However, one can almost always find an element without which inflation is smaller. But one can also almost always find an element without which inflation is higher. This is how the consumer baskets work: some goods are getting more expensive, others are getting cheaper, etc.So, although May’s inflation reading will likely be smaller, inflation may be more lasting than many analysts believe. There are many arguments for this. First, the surge in the broad money supply . Second, rising producer prices in China, so there might be an import of inflation. Third, the realization of the pent-up demand. Fourth, the rising input prices and more room for passing them on consumers. Fifth, April’s sluggish job creation signals that wages will have to rise to entice people to return to work (all the recent unemployment benefits have made current wages less appealing). So, producers could try to pass these increases in wages on consumers, just as with rising input prices.Implications for GoldWhat does inflation imply for the gold market? Well, from the fundamental perspective, higher and more permanent inflation is positive for the yellow metal . Inflation lowers the real interest rates and the purchasing power of the greenback , supporting gold. Of course, the short-term relationship between inflation and gold is more complicated (and less bullish than in theory), especially when higher inflation translates into higher nominal bond yields and expectations of a more hawkish Fed .However, gold is a proven long-term hedge against inflation , so “gold can be a valuable component of an inflation-hedging basket”, as the WGC’s Investment Update shows . What is important here is that the Fed has become more tolerant of higher inflation. Therefore, we will have an environment of higher inflation and dovish Fed behind the curve, which implies lower real interest rates and a weaker dollar.Hence, gold should attract attention as a hedge against inflation – actually, it’s already happening, as market sentiment toward gold has recently improved, while outflows in gold ETFs have slowed . And, as the chart below shows, the price of gold has jumped this week above $1,850.So, as I repeated several times earlier, although the threat of higher interest rates will remain, the second quarter of 2021 should be better than the first one, unless the Fed radically changes its stance.If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhDSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

Given yesterday’s headlines with Bitcoin plunging, did you take a peek at interest rates? Could a stronger dollar lie ahead with higher rates?While everybody’s eyes are peeled on cryptocurrencies and a crowded short DXY trade, let’s revisit the potentially polar opposite of a crypto instrument: 10-year notes. Yields rose on Wednesday, settling at 1.683%, just off the intraday high of 1.692%. I like to take a look when few others are looking. As yields closed near the highs of the day, with other risk assets seeming out of favor, at least temporarily, let’s revisit the 10-year notes.Figure 1 -CBOE 10-year US Treasury Yield Daily Candles January 19, 2021 - May 19, 2021. Source stockcharts.comBonds and equities have an interesting relationship. The trade that has worked in recent years has been long the bonds or 10-year notes (short yield) and long the $SPX . That trade has worked for a long, long time, overall. However, trends eventually change and given the current environment of the US Dollar Index approaching a key long-term Fibonacci retracement level, and yields looking like they want to climb, things could turn out differently in the short run.In my May 11th publication , we were eyeing potential precision entry levels for a short trade in the June 10-year notes (higher yields). Remember, bond prices and yields move inversely to one another . We discussed some key technical indicators, and the idea was sound. Reviewing this analysis, the 50-day moving average was a key level that was analyzed and discussed. That idea was put on pause due to the bounceback that occurred in the $SPX , and a trader would usually not want to be caught short bonds with a snapback rally and $VIX crush in the cards. Since that is so “last week”, we can now take a look and see what has transpired since then. The 50-day moving average has held like a rock in $TNX over 4 trading sessions. We can see what appears to be a “cup and handle(y) type of bullish continuation pattern that is forming here. It just feels like rates want to rise, and therefore the 10-year note futures could fall.Figure 2 -June 10-year T-Note Futures CBOT (ZNM2021) 4 Hour Candles April 12, 2021 - May 19, 2021. Source tradingview.comIt really doesn’t get more textbook than this , as we can see a clear head and shoulders formation occurring here in the June 10-year notes. Rallies to the neckline have stalled, and yields have been finding support at the 50-day MA. Notice the potentially bearish MACD (12,26,9) action on the 4-hour candle chart, trading just south of the zero line. RSI(14) appears to be anything but bullish.But, what do you think? The Fed says rates will remain “lower for longer”. That theme still exists. However, please remember that the Fed only sets the overnight lending rate and not the longer-term duration rates. Thankfully, free markets determine such rates. What is the market telling us? And what about the DXY? As we approach some longer-term important technical levels, how could this affect the price of 10-year notes? There is a flux of data pulling markets in bipolar directions at this time, in my opinion, and this could create opportunity.Based on the recent price action, there could be a potential opportunity to benefit from a market curve pricing discrepancy between the actual short-term rate levels set by the Fed, and what the charts are showing us with the recent action in the 10-year note.Now, for our premium subscribers, let’s dig into the ZNM2021 short-term technicals and the potential key levels for today. In addition, we have been stalking the Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK) , which is especially interesting, given yesterday's action in Bitcoin. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian ContributorSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.

Bitcoin’s popularity and price are rising. However, cryptocurrencies could be seen as complementary, not substitutive to gold.What a rally ! Unfortunately, I’m not referring to gold, but to Bitcoin . As the chart below shows, the price of the first and the biggest of cryptocurrencies rose to above $60,000 in April 2021 from scratch (or $124) in October 2013 when the chart starts. I wish I had bought more coins in these early years of cryptocurrencies and held them for longer! More recently, Bitcoin has skyrocketed almost 1200% from its bottom of $4,945 during the asset sell-off in March 2020.OK, but why am I writing about Bitcoin in the Gold Market Overview? The reason is the narrative that the cryptocurrency has already become or will become soon the substitute for gold. Some people even call Bitcoin “new gold” or “millennial gold”. And this is what Jerome Powell has recently said about cryptocurrencies:Crypto assets are highly volatile and therefore not useful as a store of value. They are not backed by anything. It is a speculative asset that is essentially a substitute for gold rather than for the dollar.Others echo Powell’s remarks, claiming that Bitcoin is displacing gold as an inflation hedge , or that it could supplant gold as a safe-haven asset . Are they right?Well, there are, of course, some similarities between Bitcoin and gold which make these two assets substitutes to some extent . It would be surprising if that wasn’t the case, given the fact that Bitcoin’s system was designed to mimic the gold standard . In particular, there is a cap on the number of bitcoins to make this cryptocurrency rare just like the yellow metal. In other words, the idea is to make its supply inflexible, just as – or even more – in the gold standard. So, both Bitcoin and gold are anti-inflationary currencies whose supply cannot be arbitrarily changed like in the case of national fiat currencies . And both these assets have a libertarian, anti-government flavor – in the sense that demand for them stems from the lack of confidence in the government monies.However, there are also important differences between Bitcoin and gold. First of all, although Bitcoin is believed to be an alternative anti-fiat asset, it’s actually also fiat money . It’s a private, decentralized, non-governmental currency, but it doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is not backed by anything, and it has no intrinsic value. Of course, value is subjective, but gold has some non-monetary use (in jewelry or technology), which implies that its price is not likely to drop to zero in a worst-case scenario in which people cease to see gold as a monetary asset. Unlike the shiny metal, Bitcoin has only monetary value – i.e., you cannot use it either as a consumer good or as an input in a production process – so there is no floor below its price (if the officials try to ban Bitcoin, its price could plunge really deeply).Second, Bitcoin is much more volatile than gold . Sure, it might be just a problem of Bitcoin’s young age. But it doesn’t change the fact that price declines in the cryptocurrency are a few times bigger than in the gold market. Hence, although – thanks to the network effects and speculative appeal – Bitcoin offers potential for quicker and larger gains, it’s also associated with higher downward risks. It makes the cryptocurrency an inferior store of value and a safe haven. So, Bitcoin could be seen rather as a risky asset, not necessarily a safe haven that goes up together with risk appetite. This may explain the recent divergence in cryptocurrencies and gold.What does it all mean for the gold market ? Well, it’s true that some money has flowed from gold into Bitcoin and that some investors may prefer now to treat Bitcoin as a major alternative asset in their investment portfolios . However, such flows and rebalancing of portfolios as we’ve seen recently are perfectly normal, especially given that Bitcoin is still benefiting from the network effects, i.e., the accelerating institutional interest and mainstream acceptance.More importantly, there are important differences between gold and Bitcoin, which imply that the latter won’t replace the yellow metal . The correlation coefficient between the weekly prices of these two assets is only 0.38 percent, so they are really far away from being perfect substitutes. Also, please take a look at the chart below which shows their prices in 2019-2021.As you can see, gold reached its peak in early August, while the rally in the cryptocurrency started in October, two months later. Hence, it should be clear that Bitcoin didn’t cause the plunge in gold prices . We could even hypothesize that gold has undergone (or is undergoing) a healthy correction, which is still ahead of Bitcoin. After all, its price chart looks parabolic, which brings to mind the possibility of a bubble (although network effects can be partially responsible for this shape).Anyway, for us, these two assets are rather distinct despite all the similarities. And they both can coexist together as hedges against national fiat currencies, as they complement each other. Bitcoin can be used in instant payments, cross-border payments and as a highly risky speculative asset, while gold has non-monetary value and provides long-term stability. But Bitcoin’s rise in popularity doesn’t pose an existential threat to gold. After all, the yellow metal has an exceptional track record of being the ultimate money, proving its value over millennia .Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

Most likely we saw the precious metals reach their zenith on May 19, like the tropical sun on the day of the equinox. What will come afterward?Usually, when we think about the zenith, we have in mind a natural phenomenon caused by the tropical sun being exactly over our heads. But the zenith can also mean that something reached its peak – and just as the sun starts casting increasingly longer shadows after retreating from the highest point in the sky, the same happens when an asset on the market starts backing out after topping.Its shadow – i.e., its ramifications – is cast in one particular direction, and it usually goes this way until the sun sets. Therefore, just as the shadows are getting longer, and longer, and longer, the drop after the top could go lower, and lower, and lower…During yesterday’s (May 20) session, we saw more or less the repeat of the previous day’s indications – gold stocks reversed once again, and gold is trading where it was trading two days ago. Silver is already trading lower. Consequently, much of my previous comments remain up-to-date.On Wednesday, gold miners reversed in a classically bearish way, and yesterday’s low-volume session (also a reversal) looks like Wednesday’s reversal’s shadow.The GDX ETF first tried to rally to new highs, then it failed to hold them. Wednesday’s reversal took place on big volume (important bearish confirmation), and the “shadow reversal” took place on relatively low volume. The low volume doesn’t confirm the reversal, but it more or less invalidates the seemingly bullish fact that miners closed yesterday’s session higher.Moreover, please note that the volume was similarly low to what we saw on January 7, 2021, when the 4-day top was ending. Yesterday was the fourth day of what appears to be a broad top.Let’s also keep in mind that the RSI indicator just moved back below 70 after being above it. This happens rarely, and when it happened previously (in the past 1.5 years), it meant that a huge price decline was about to follow.Silver reversed in a different manner.The white metal didn’t move to new highs yesterday. Conversely, it moved lower, and then it only recovered intraday decline without moving visibly higher ( silver futures ended the day only $0.04 higher). The true reversal happened on Tuesday – and what we saw yesterday and on Wednesday was just its consequence. It’s quite often the case that the tops and bottoms in the precious metals market take place more or less (!) simultaneously, but not necessarily exactly on the same day. Consequently, what we saw this week is quite normal.Gold didn’t manage to move to new intraday highs yesterday – however, it didn’t decline visibly either.It moved a bit lower in today’s pre-market trading, and overall, it’s just $8 higher than it was at the end of Tuesday’s session. This might seem positive given that gold managed to move slightly above its declining medium-term resistance lines. However, given what’s happening in the mining stocks and all the signals from them, I doubt this breakout will really hold.Here’s another reason: the Fed is attempting to control the long-term rates, and we just saw a short-term exodus from the cryptocurrency market. Theoretically, capital should be flowing into gold as a safe-haven / inflation-hedge asset, and it should be soaring . But it’s not. It did move higher recently, but compared to what “should have” happened given the importance of the above-mentioned developments, the reaction is barely noticeable.Instead, gold seems to be insisting on repeating – to some extent – its 2012 performance, and – to some extent – its 2008 performance. Either way, it seems that gold is about to slide.The reversal in gold took place after gold moved very close to its mid-January highs and the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the August 2020 – March 2021 decline.The sizes of the current rally (taking the second March bottom as the starting point) and the rally that ended at the beginning of this year are practically identical at the moment.Just as the rallies from early 2012 and late 2012 (marked with blue) were almost identical, the same could happen now.The March 2021 low formed well below the previous low, but as far as other things are concerned, the current situation is similar to what happened in 2012.The relatively broad bottom with higher lows is what preceded both final short-term rallies – the current one, and the 2012 one. Their shape as well as the shape of the decline that preceded these broad bottoms is very similar. In both cases, the preceding decline had some back-and-forth trading in its middle, and the final rally picked up pace after breaking above the initial short-term high.Interestingly, the 2012 rally ended in huge volume, which is exactly what we saw also on May 19 this year.What is even more interesting is that back in 2013 gold started its gargantuan (…) slide from about $1,800 and it is not far (from the long-term point of view) from this level also today.Moreover, let’s keep in mind that the RSI indicator just topped slightly above 70, which is what tends to happen when gold tops. The upside seems very limited. In fact, it seems that the top in gold might already be in.The lower part of the above chart shows how the USD Index and the general stock market performed when gold ended its late-2012 rally and was starting its epic decline. In short, that was when the USD Index bottomed, and when the general stock market topped.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Yes, a trillion US-Dollar was lost last week in the crypto space, and yes, Elon Musk’s tweets influence Bitcoin that can make one weary or doubtful. More substantial, regulatory concerns got cemented by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell calling cryptocurrencies risky and talking about the implementation of digital currency. This aligning with Chinas crypto ban and their digital yuan release planned. The treasury department was putting a cherry on top of the worry cake, stating that any US$10,000 or more transaction value shall require reporting to the IRS in the future.These shakeup attempts are nothing new, neither are steep price declines. It is pretty common once new inventions start hitting the mainstream, prominent figures gain temporary influence with their opinions. Regulation is THE battle in the discussion about Bitcoin since Bitcoin offers decentralization. That is precisely the reason why bans and centralized digital currencies will gain neither the trust nor the attractiveness of use. In short, Bitcoin isn’t just here to stay. Bitcoin as usual, will after more significant retracements like the one last week, not just advance on a near term basis but also rise to new all-time highs in the long term.BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Keep calm and keep trading Bitcoin:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 24th, 2021.Our optimism about Bitcoin’s trend continuation isn’t based on emotional beliefs but factual past of this volatile trading instrument’s volatility. The weekly chart above shows clearly that large retracements from significant highs are standard. It also indicates that consistently old highs are taken out, and a strong directional trend throughout the years has been persistent.BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Up-Sideways-Down-Sideways-Up:Bitcoin in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 24th, 2021.A common mistake made by market participants is perceiving the market in up and down moves. When emotions flare up in a substantial decline, one asks: “Where do I get in? What is the next support level?” Only in a “V” shaped recovery, an early entry like this is applicable. These “V” rallies are rare. The highest probability is that markets after steep declines or advances trade for a while sideways.Consequently, one doesn’t get a trophy being first. Instead one is sitting duck in a position exposed with time risk without movement. Typically, double bottoms and long stretched-out sideways movements following. As such, we see no urgency to buy into the Bitcoin market. Instead pick Your low-risk entry spot wisely without insisting on being right (=aiming to buy at an ideal low price). BTC-USD, Hourly Chart, Bitcoin, nothing will edge me out, When to buy?Bitcoin in US-Dollar, hourly chart as of May 24th, 2021.While professionals might attempt to fade extreme moves, for typical long-term investors, it is a futile endeavor to try to “catch a falling knife” on a massive down day like last Wednesday. After all, who knows if Bitcoin was to turn at US$40,000, US$34,000 or US$30,000.In the above 60 minute chart, we illustrate how to time the following entry from a low-risk perspective. Low-risk perspective being the most meaningful perspective in our view.We had four legs down. Price got cut in half from near US$60,000 down to below US$ 30,000. Very likely, you are emotionally exhausted trying to pinpoint the lows in this ten-day lasting high volatility sale. On top, prices reversed in a “V” shaped fashion from an intraday point of view. They gained 41%. This was another emotional roller coaster. Within the white square these accumulated energies of emotions typically get released by the novice market speculator through entering into a long trade to find him/herself exposed at high risk.We find the very first opportunity that is reasonable on much-reduced size at the double bottom. Still, what we are looking for is an additional washout spike through the new lows set at around US$30,000. This would result in a hammer formation or other Doji-shaped daily bar. Consequently, allowing to then engage the following day with tight stops after bottom building. This setup might as well establish this week.Bitcoin, nothing will edge me out:In principle, two things would need to happen for Bitcoin to be endangered to not outpace any and all other payment methods.First, the opposing digital payment method would need to be limited in supply as Bitcoin is. Secondly, no central figure could be in charge of a system that is self-regulative.Suppose citizens would lose faith in either yuan or dollar as a payment vehicle, for example, due to extreme inflation. Why would the same people find instant trust in their digital counterparts freshly offered as their replacements?Bitcoins’ worth is principle-based. Principles being ultimate truths where one does not need to extend good faith and unearned trust but can lean on a truthful certainty. It will be this truth that will outshine all efforts to keep control.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 24th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

As we know, history tends to rhyme. It’s never the same, but when you zoom out, the bigger picture often looks very similar. What does it mean for gold?Short-term implicationsWith gold’s back-and-forth price action mirroring its behavior from 2012, the yellow metal is likely destined for devaluation.Back then, gold zigzagged with anxiety before suffering a material drawdown. In fact, in early October 2012, it moved slightly above the initial highs right before sliding.Moreover, while the yellow metal has bounced above its declining resistance line (the black line below), the price action mirrors gold’s behavior from early January. If you analyze the blue line below, you can see that investors’ optimism regarding gold’s short-term breakout quickly faded and the yellow metal sunk like a stone. In addition, with gold’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) moving slightly above 70 before the January swoon occurred, an identical development is already playing out in real time.Gold seems to be insisting on repeating – to some extent – its 2012 performance, and – to some extent – its 2008 performance. Either way, it seems that gold is about to slide.The reversal in gold took place after gold moved very close to its mid-January highs and the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the August 2020 – March 2021 decline.The sizes of the current rally (taking the second March bottom as the starting point) and the rally that ended at the beginning of this year are practically identical at the moment.Just as the rallies from early 2012 and late 2012 (marked with blue) were almost identical, the same could happen now.The March 2021 low formed well below the previous low, but as far as other things are concerned, the current situation is similar to what happened in 2012.The relatively broad bottom with higher lows is what preceded both final short-term rallies – the current one, and the 2012 one. Their shape as well as the shape of the decline that preceded these broad bottoms is very similar. In both cases, the preceding decline had some back-and-forth trading in its middle, and the final rally picked up pace after breaking above the initial short-term high.Interestingly, the 2012 rally ended on huge volume, which is exactly what we saw also on May 19 this year. Consequently, forecasting much higher gold prices here doesn’t seem to be justified based on the historical analogies.The lower part of the above chart shows how the USD Index and the general stock market performed when gold ended its late-2012 rally and was starting its epic decline. In short, that was when the USD Index bottomed, and when the general stock market topped.Back in 2008, gold corrected to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, but it stopped rallying approximately when the USD Index started to rally, and the general stock market accelerated its decline. This time the rally was not as volatile, so the lower – 50% Fibonacci retracement level will hold the rally in check.Taking into consideration that the general stock market has probably just topped and the USD Index is about to rally, then gold is likely to slide for the final time in the following weeks/months. Both above-mentioned markets support this bearish scenario and so do the self-similar patterns in terms of gold price itself.MACD and the Long TermApproaching the subject from a different side, remember the huge gap between the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield and the U.S. 10-Year breakeven inflation rate? The situation in the very long-term MACD indicator is yet another confirmation that what we saw recently is similar to what we saw before the huge 2012 – 2013 slide. We get the same confirmation from the gold to bonds ratio, and I’ll move to that a bit later.With February’s monthly close the last piece of the puzzle, the MACD indicator’s sell-signal is now perfectly clear. If you analyze the chart below (at the bottom right), you can see that the MACD line has crossed the signal line from above – a development that preceded significant drawdowns in 2008 and 2011.Based on gold’s previous performance after the major sell signals from the MACD indicator, one could now expect gold to bottom in the ~$1,200 to ~1,350 range. Given the price moves that we witnessed in 1988, 2008 and 2011, historical precedent implies gold forming a bottom in this range. However, due to the competing impact of several different variables, it’s possible that the yellow metal could receive the key support at a higher level.Only a shade below the 2011 high, today’s MACD reading is still the second-highest reading in the last 40 years. More importantly though, if you analyze the chart below (the red arrows at the bottom), the last four times the black line cut through the red line from above, a significant drawdown occurred.Also ominous is that the magnitude of the drawdowns in price tend to coincide with the magnitude of the preceding upswings in MACD. And with today’s reading only surpassed by 2011, a climactic move to the $1,250/$1,450 range isn’t out of the question for gold. The above is based on how low gold had previously declined after a similarly important sell signal from the MACDNow, the month is not over yet, so one might say that it’s too early to consider the sell signal that’s based on monthly closing prices , but it seems that given the level that the MACD had previously reached and the shape of the top in the black line, it makes the situation so similar to 2011/2012 that the sell signal itself is just a cherry on the bearish analytical cake.Considering the reliability of the MACD indicator a sell signal for major declines, the reading also implies that gold’s downtrend could last longer and be more severe than originally thought. As a result, $1,500 remains the most likely outcome, with $1,350 still in the cards.As further evidence, if you focus your attention on the monthly price action in 2008, you can see that gold is behaving exactly as it did before it suffered a significant decline.Please see below:To explain, after making a new all-time high in 2008 (that was a breakout above the 1980 tops), gold declined back to its rising support line before recording a short-term corrective upswing. This upswing ended approximately at gold’s previous monthly closing price. I marked it with a horizontal, blue, dashed line.Similarly, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that an identical pattern has emerged. With gold’s corrective upswing following a reconnection with its rising support line, history implies that a sharp decline should occur in the coming months and that the reversal is at hand or already behind us. After all, the thing that triggered the decline almost a year ago was the fact that gold made a new all-time high . Moreover, the recent high was very close to the previous high in terms of the monthly closing prices (Dec. 2020 - $1,895.10 vs. the recent intraday high of $1,891.30).What about the HUI Index?Not only are ominous signs emerging from gold’s medium-and-long-term charts, but beneath the surface, the gold miners are also folding their hands. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the HUI Index back-and-forth price action mirrors its behavior from 2008 and 2012 and its bearish head & shoulders pattern is also gaining similarity. In addition, the BUGS (after all, HUI is called the Gold Bugs Index) stochastic oscillator has moved all-in like the 2012 analogue (depicted at the bottom part of the chart below), and thus, it seems to be only a matter of time before the HUI Index completely blows its bankroll.Please see below:To explain, the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over. And with investors rejecting the HUI’s recent attempt to break above the 61.8% level, the house of cards is slowly coming down.The bottom line?If the HUI Index hasn’t already peaked, history implies that a top is increasingly imminent. As a result, in my opinion, now is the time to enter short positions and not exit them.Now, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02.That’s why I previously wrote that “it wouldn’t be surprising to see a move to about 300 in the HUI Index”. And that’s exactly what we saw (a move above 320 is still close to 300 from the long-term point of view). To clarify, one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a rising neckline – was already completed, and one head-and-shoulders pattern – with a horizontal neckline – is being completed, but we’ll have the confirmation once miners break to new yearly lows.In addition, the recent rally is not a game-changer, but rather a part of a long-term pattern that’s not visible when one focuses on the short term only.The thing is that the vast majority of individual investors and – sadly – quite many analysts focus on the trees while forgetting about the forest. During the walk, this might result in getting lost, and the implications are no different in the investment landscape.Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chiefSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

As commodities rise, are there any clues about the direction of broader US markets? Measuring correlations can help to spot trends across asset classes.As we head into the new week, we want to be aware of the impending data releases that can affect timing and sentiment. This week is a mild to moderate week on the US economic data side of things, with the largest market impact event happening on Thursday, May 27th, in the form of Preliminary GDP q/q (quarter over quarter) . This number is reported in an annualized fashion (so it is the quarterly change x4). Market participants are forecasting a print of 6.4%. Also, bear in mind that this is the Preliminary GDP number. There are three different GDP data releases, the Advance GDP (earliest indication and usually most impactful on markets), Preliminary GDP (this one), and then Final. A bullish print usually strengthens the US Dollar (not always, but usually).Other than the GDP print, FOMC members Brainard, and Bostic speak on Monday morning, FOMC member Evans speaks on Tuesday morning, and we have Consumer Confidence data on Tuesday, as well. More Fedspeak is in store for Wednesday, with FOMC member Quarles speaking, leading up to the GDP print on Thursday. Thursday also features US Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales. Finally, on Friday, we get the Core PCE Price Index which measures the price of services and goods (ex-food and energy) purchased by consumers (not businesses). This data release could warrant some attention due to the inflationary pressure that has been present in the markets as of late .Overall, it will be a moderate economic data release in the US. I always like to know what data will be coming out, and when, as a trading week begins.Correlations. Traders love them. They tell a story that really cannot be quantified unless studying the raw data. As we have had so much attention going to inflation lately, it is a good time to review the broader market S&P 500 vs. commodities to get an idea of the relationship between them.Figure 1 - SPX/SPGSCI TVC Monthly Candles November 1992 - May 2021. Source tradingview.comHere we have a long-term chart of the SPX (S&P500) divided by the SPGSCI (S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index). So, we have the ratio between the two instruments to inspect. We can see the large blowoff top price action that occurred in this ratio in Q1 2020 as a result of the pandemic (Crude trading negative, anyone?). There is a nice pullback from the blowoff top levels of the pandemic. The question becomes, is that the top or is it time to be long equities and short commodities? Friday’s PCE data could give us another clue. If buying pullbacks tickles one’s fancy in a contrarian fashion, this could be some food for thought.Figure 2 - SPX/SPGSCI TVC Daily Candles October 28, 2019 - May 21, 2021. Source tradingview.comDrilling down to the daily candles, we do see an interesting formation that could potentially indicate support of this trade between the 7.70-8.00 levels. The level has been key on the last three tries. Notice the horizontal price support and the MACD (12,26,9) starting to look bullish here. In addition, we have the RSI(14) crossing the 50 line.So, what does all of this mean? Trading ratios does require some knowledge and arithmetic. A trader would need to be long an identical X dollars worth of one instrument and short X dollars of the other to make it work. Do you have experience with this type of pairs trading?For now, let’s just explore the potential that the S&P 500 could be inexpensive compared to the commodity basket that the SPGSCI measures. Is one of them “cheap” or is the other “expensive”? Or both? Given the S&P 500 earnings multiple, money printing, and other policy directives from the new US administration, it may be simple to conclude that stocks are overpriced, and commodities will go up in a straight line. H owever, is trading really that easy? Bull markets, such as the one in the S&P 500, do not tend to go out in a whimper. Instead, they tend to go out with a bang.In the May 10th publication , we were examining the Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF (ERTH) given the US infrastructure bill, new administration, and other factors. Now, for our premium subscribers, let’s revisit ERTH , and see what the price action may be telling us, given recent market developments. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian Stock Trading StrategistSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Rafael Zorabedian, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates, as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, futures contracts, options or other financial instruments including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a risk of loss in trading.

Do you have exposure to small-cap equities? How do the small-caps measure up versus the large-caps at this moment?There is always opportunity somewhere, and we do our best to find it. Not only in trading and business, but in life too. So, what can we find today in the markets?Yesterday, the Russell 2000 ($RUT) closed above its 50-day simple moving average, a welcome sign for small-cap bulls. The index has lagged behind its large-cap counterparts as of late and hasn’t closed above its 50-day moving average since May 7th.After taking the pulse of the markets and digesting the opinions of other participants, it can be challenging to get excited about an $SPX at 4200 and with a 44.58 P/E ratio (trailing twelve months). So, more aggressive swing traders tend to look elsewhere in the hunt for return.A quick note on the $SPX P/E ratio (ttm): Figure 1 - S&P 500 PE Ratio 1870 - 2021. Source multpl.comTalk about a long-term chart. Anyway, this does look like a potential head and shoulders setup here, although it looks like current levels have exceeded the neckline. Food for thought. At what point is the S&P 500 fundamentally overvalued?Let's get back to small caps.Figure 2 - IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF December 10, 2020 - May 26, 2021. Source stockcharts.comAbove, we see the close above the 50-day moving average, the MACD(12,26,9) fast/slow line cross approaching the zero line, and the RSI(14) crossing 50. This, my friends, is visual Mozart to me; a confluence of indicators . Of course, nothing works all of the time, but when multiple technicals can be stacked in your favor, a distinct advantage can be created.Wednesday’s settlements had the SPY up 0.20% on the day, the DIA up 0.03%, the QQQ up 0.35%, and the IWM up 1.87%. A whopping change in tune from the recent large-cap money flow theme. It is certainly worth noting and perhaps utilizing for adjustment and/or speculation.Why Were the Small-caps Up So Much Comparatively on Wednesday?One thing to know is that the Russell indices are reconstituted yearly in June. This reconstitution is designed to remove underperforming stocks from the index and add new stocks to the index. The goal is to have and maintain a more accurate representation. This process begins on June 4, 2021, and ends with the reconstituted index ready on June 25. The new index components take effect after the market closes on June 25, which would be for Monday’s open on June 28.Isn’t this a valuable nugget?Another viable way to play the Russell reconstitution would be to pair it with another index ETF like SPY . If you are overall bearish on the market, this could be a great way to reduce risk, and still participate in the “Russell reconstitution trade” .Take a look:Figure 3 - IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF / SPY S&P 500 ETF Ratio August 27, 2020 - May 26, 2021. Source stockcharts.comThis chart is the IWM divided by the SPY . The IWM to SPY ratio. You can see that the small-cap index had fallen out of favor versus the large-cap index from March until now. Again here, we see the MACD looking to tilt bullish and the RSI(14) looking to bullishly cross the 50 line.So, this can be a way to take advantage of the Russell Index reconstitution even if you are bearish. This can be achieved by buying IWM and selling SPY , on a dollar-for-dollar basis. It is a way to look for one index to outpace the other (or not decrease as much as the other). Got it?Now, for our premium subscribers, let’s examine some strategy ideas that surround the Russell 2000 reconstitution and review the other markets and key levels that we are covering. Not a Premium subscriber yet? Go Premium and receive my Stock Trading Alerts that include the full analysis and key price levels.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's absolutely free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!Thank you.Rafael Zorabedian ContributorSunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care* * * * *This content is for informational and analytical purposes only. All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Rafael Zorabedian, and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. You should not construe any such information or other material as investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this article constitutes a recommendation, endorsement to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Any references to any particular securities or futures contracts are for example and informational purposes only. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Information is from sources believed to be reliable; but its accuracy, completeness, and interpretation are not guaranteed. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Rafael Zorabedian, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Mr. Zorabedian is not a Registered Investment Advisor. By reading Rafael Zorabedian’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Trading, including technical trading, is speculative and high-risk. There is a substantial risk of loss involved in trading, and it is not suitable for everyone. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment when trading futures, foreign currencies, margined securities, shorting securities, and trading options. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. 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Bidenomics is a big departure from sound economics. But when reason sleeps, gold fortunes are born.Biden’s triumph in the presidential election does not just mean that a new man lives in the White House. It actually implies a fundamental shift in economic policy . Some analysts even see Biden’s agenda as a decisive break with neoliberalism or “Washington consensus”.You see, in the old orthodoxy, most economists trusted in markets, argued for privatization, deregulation, and liberalization. Taxes and social benefits should be low and don’t discourage work and investments. The governments should run balanced budgets, avoiding large and permanent fiscal deficits , while central banks should hike interest rates to prevent inflation from running out of control.The focus was on scarcity and limited supply. The economy was believed to operate generally at potential, so the key factors to fast economic growth were structural reforms and adequate supply-side policy to strengthen incentives to work and invest. Governments shouldn’t run fiscal deficits as they could crowd out private investments, and they shouldn’t stimulate the demand as it would misallocate resources and could overheat the economy, leading to inflation. The monetary policy was better suited to occasionally fight economic crises .How much has changed! Now, the focus is on slack and the demand side of the economy. The growth is held by chronic lack of demand – this is the key tenet of Keynesian economics, the hypothesis of secular stagnation, and the Modern Monetary Theory – so, governments and central banks should continuously stimulate the economy through easy monetary and fiscal policies . As real interest rates are low and demand is weak, rising public debt is not a problem. Inflation is not a problem either; after all, if there is always slack in the economy which operates below its full potential, there is practically no risk of inflation.Indeed, Biden has pushed the American Rescue Plan Act of $1.9 trillion (or about 9%of the GDP ) without presenting any plan of longer-term deficit reduction. And additional huge government expenditures are coming with Biden’s infrastructure plan. It seems that no one is interested any longer in how the government is going to pay for its spending and obligations, or in long-term consequences of practically unprecedentedly large fiscal deficits (see the chart below). Interest rates are low, so let’s live like there’s no tomorrow!Another notable example is, of course, the Fed’s new monetary framework. The US central bank has ultimately disregarded the idea of the Philips curve and the natural rate of unemployment . There is no level of employment that could boost the inflation rate, so there is no need for any preventive actions. What really counts is the actual inflation rate, not the expected one. The central bank shouldn’t fight with symmetrical deviations from the economy’s long-term path determined by technological progress and other supply-side factors any longer, but only with shortfalls from the full employment.So, what does Bidenomics (and Powellomics) imply for the gold market? Well, Biden is not the first politician who thinks that there are no economic limits to his ideas. But the pandemic and the economic crisis, the environment of ultra-low interest rates, and the fact that the Democratic base has shifted further to the left implies that Bidenomics may become a radical departure from sound economics. However, a crazy idea that “borrow & spend without a limit” is the key to prosperity is positive for the gold market , as the yellow metal is a safe-haven asset and a hedge against insane economic policies.What is important here is the fact that we have actually tested this approach. In 1960, just like today, the Keynesian economists who dominated in the mainstream (and politicians who trusted them) thought that the main task of economic policy is to actively and permanently stimulate aggregate demand. The result was stagflation in the 1970s, as it turned out that economies may overheat as well. Gold shined then, so it should also benefit today from similarly unsound economic ideas and policies.So far, the pace of economic recovery has been fast, while the inflation rate has remained limited. But this may change quickly when people stop trusting that the Fed and the government will swiftly take action to contain inflation if it breaks out. However, given the current mindset and macroeconomic ideas, how probable is it that the policymakers will accept substantial interest rate hikes, cuts in spending, and probably also a recession when faced with 1970s-style inflation? Not very likely, indeed. Hence, if inflation continues to rise, while the Fed remains ultra- dovish , inflationary expectations may become unanchored, and inflation may get out of control taking gold with it on a wild journey north.Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter . Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care.

Daily Chart, Silver in US-Dollar, Income producing:Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 27th, 2021.We were again able to profit last week from lower trendline entry trades by taking half off after the initial price moves in our favor (see our quad exit strategy). We overall lightened up on our positions near options expiry (5), since a possible more significant retracement is likely. Our reentry projections are US$27.38 and US$26.41.From a daily trading perspective, we are now stepping away from aggressive short-term reloading. Think exits versus entries! The above daily chart shows that principle-based entry density should be in the establishment zone of a trend and not when the world wakes up to Silvers directional run.  Silver in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, Just getting started:Silver in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 27th, 2021.While it is sensible to get modest with aggressive trade frequency on daily timeframe, the weekly chart is still bullish. At the beginning of this year, a double top in price was firmly rejected, and prices were forced back into range. Over the last two months, Silver has advanced enormously from US$24 to US$28. Two weeks ago, we had a failed breakout through a significant resistance trendline. This week prices managed to trade above what was previously resistance and has now become support. No need to cash in the chips just now! We see a bullish consensus confirmed.Silver in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, Persistent strength:Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of May 27th, 2021.Trustworthy guidance needs to be taken by the more significant player participation represented on the larger time frame charts. A look at the monthly chart shows volume supported buying. We can also see a strong supply zone below actual trading prices based on our fractional volume analysis at US$26.68 (yellow line). With this much focus on the precious metal sector and Gold coming to the forefront, we see Silver to rise into a stellar future in tech mid- to longer-term.Silver, time is on your side:We use a hybrid model of income-producing trading and long-term investing. We take partially initial profits quickly to mitigate risk. And we leave small portions of each winning trade exposed to the market and do not trail stops. Why no stops? The further one stretches a rubber band, the more extreme it snaps back. As such, in principle, trailing stops are a flawed methodology to protect profits. By taking partial profits early instead but leaving remainder positions exposed with only a break-even stop, the likelihood is that these runners survive significant retracements and end up in a trending environment to outpace any other profit-taking methodology. Result:” If you catch a long-term trend, the rewards are enormous.” In the case of Silver, this long-term trend has a very high probability. With the intent of wealth preservation and long-term investments, we find the Quad exit strategy contrarian to “hodling”, Martingale strategies, pyramiding, and any other high-risk approach the one to surpass typical expectations.Feel free to join us in our free Telegram channel for daily real time data and a great community.If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.By Korbinian Koller|May 27th, 2021|Tags: low risk, Silver, silver bull, Silver Chartbook, Silver Manipulation, silversqueeze, technical analysis, time frame, trading principles|0 CommentsAbout the Author: Korbinian KollerOutstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

The FED has recently been tricked with its own money. Could the central bank’s scary reverse repos become a treat for the USDX?The USD Index (USDX)With the ghosts of 2015 attempting to scare the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) into tapering its asset purchases, the latest reverse repo nightmare could be gold, silver and mining stocks version of the boogeyman. Case in point: with the liquidity fright helping the USD Index sleep better at night, the greenback should benefit from the FED’s latest house of horrors: And with the central bank’s daily reverse repos hitting an all-time high of $485 billion on May 27 (with another $479 billion sold on May 28), Halloween may come early this year.Please see below:To explain, the green line above tracks the daily reverse repo transactions executed by the FED, while the red line above tracks the federal funds rate. If you focus your attention on the red line, you can see that after the $400 billion level was breached in December 2015, the FED’s rate-hike cycle began. Thus, with current inflation dwarfing 2015 levels and U.S. banks practically throwing cash at the FED, is this time really different?Likewise, with reduced liquidity poised to bolster the USD Index, not only are the fundamentals trending up but also the technicals. The USD Index jumped above its declining resistance line based on May’s highs, as well as the declining resistance line that started with the late-March high. This is important not only (and not primarily) because of the double-breakout. It’s important and particularly bullish, as it emphasizes that the third – and quite likely the final – short-term bottom in a row is already in.In addition, the USD Index might be in the early innings of forming an inverted head & shoulders pattern. For context, an inverted H&S pattern is a bullish development that if formed, could usher the USD Index well above 94.5 (to about 97-98). However, completing the right shoulder requires an upward breach of 93 (the blue line), so at this point, it’s more of an indication than a confirmation.Please see below:For more context, I wrote previously:This week’s move lower is a continuation, and most likely the final part, of a specific multi-bottom pattern that the USD Index exhibited recently.I marked those situations with green. The thing is that the U.S. currency first declined practically without any corrections , but at some point it started to move back and forth while making new lows. The third distinctive bottom was the final one. Interestingly, the continuous decline took place for about a month, and the back-and-forth declines took another month (approximately). In July 2020, the USDX fell like a rock, and in August it moved back and forth while still declining. In November 2020, the USDX fell like a rock (there was one exception), and in December it moved back and forth while still declining.Ever since the final days of March, we’ve seen the same thing all over again. The USD Index fell like a rock in April, and in May we’ve seen back-and-forth movement with lower lows and lower highs.What we see right now is the third of the distinctive lows that previously marked the end of the declines.And what did gold do when the USD Index rallied then?In August, gold topped without waiting for USD’s final bottom – which is natural, given how extremely overbought it was in the short term.In early January, gold topped (which was much more similar to the current situation given the preceding price action) when the USDX formed its third, final distinctive bottom.I received a few questions recently asking what would need to happen for me to change my mind on the precious metals sector’s outlook. There are multiple reasons, and it’s impossible to list all of them. However, one of the reasons that would make me strongly consider that the outlook has indeed changed (at least for the short term) would be a confirmed breakdown in the USD Index below the 2021 lows to which gold would actually react.As further evidence, the Euro Index might be in the midst of forming a bearish H&S pattern. If you analyze the right side of the chart below, you can see that the symmetrical pattern has the current rally mirroring the summer of 2020. And while we’re still in the early innings of forming the right shoulder, three peaks were recorded during the second half of 2020 before the Euro Index eventually rolled over. Likewise, with a symmetrical setup that seems to already be in motion, the Euro Index may be heading down a similar path of historical ruin. In the second half of 2020, the decline was not that big, but it’s no wonder that this was the case as that was only the left shoulder of the pattern. Completion of the right shoulder, however, would imply another move lower, at least equal to the size of the head – to about the June 2020 lows or lower.Gold and the EuroFurthermore, last week’s decline actually ushered the Euro Index back below the dashed resistance line of its monthly channel. And with its recent triple top mirroring the price action we witnessed in mid-to-late 2020 – before the Euro Index plunged – it won’t take long for confidence to turn into fear.Please see below:More importantly, though, the completion of the masterpiece could have a profound impact on gold, silver and mining stocks. To explain, gold continues to underperform the euro. If you analyze the bottom half of the chart above, you can see that material upswings in the Euro Index have resulted in diminishing marginal returns for the yellow metal. Thus, the relative weakness is an ominous sign, and if the Euro Index reverses, it could weigh heavily on the precious metals over the medium term.If that wasn’t enough, with the USD Index hopping in the time machine and setting the dial to 2016, a bullish pattern is slowly emerging. To explain, I wrote on May 11:While the self-similarity to 2018 in the USD Index is not as clear as it used to be (it did guide the USDX for many weeks, though), there is also another self-similar pattern that seems more applicable now. One of my subscribers noticed that and decided to share it with us (thanks, Maciej!).Here’s the quote, the chart, and my reply:“Thank you very much for your comprehensive daily Gold Trading Reports that I am gladly admitting I enjoy a lot. While I was analyzing recent USD performance, (DX) I have spotted one pattern that I would like to validate with you if you see any relevance of it. I have noticed the DX Index performing exactly in the same manner in a time frame between Jan. 1, 2021 and now as the one that started in May 2016 and continued towards Aug. 16. The interesting part is not only that the patterns are almost identical, but also their temporary peeks and bottoms are spotting in the same points. Additionally, 50 daily MA line is almost copied in. Also, 200 MA location versus 50 MA is almost identical too. If the patterns continue to copy themselves in the way they did during the last 4 months, we can expect USD to go sideways in May (and dropping to the area of 90,500 within the next 3 days) and then start growing in June… which in general would be in line with your analysis too.Please note the below indices comparison (the lower represents the period between May-Dec 2016 and higher Jan – May 2021). I am very much interested in your opinion.Thank you in advance.”And here’s what I wrote in reply:“Thanks, I think that’s an excellent observation! I read it only today (Monday), so I see that the bearish note for the immediate term was already realized more or less in tune with the self-similar pattern. The USDX moved a bit lower, but it doesn’t change that much. The key detail here would be that the USDX is unlikely to decline much lower, and instead, it’s likely to start a massive rally in the next several months - that would be in perfect tune with my other charts/points.I wouldn’t bet on the patterns being identical in the very near term, though, just like the late June 2016 and early March 2021 weren’t that similar.As soon as the USD Index rallies back above the rising support line, the analogy to 2016 will be quite clear once again –the implications will be even more bullish for the USDX and bearish for the precious metals market for the next several months.”Please note that back in 2016, there were several re-tests of the rising support line and tiny breakdowns below it before the USD Index rallied. Consequently, the current short-term move lower is not really concerning, and forecasting gold at much higher levels because of it might be misleading. I wouldn’t bet on the silver bullish forecast either. The white metal might outperform at the very end of the rally, but it has already done so recently on a very short-term basis, so we don’t have to see this signal. And given the current situation in the general stock market – which might have already topped – silver and mining stocks might not be able to show strength relative to gold at all.On top of that, the USD Index’s long-term breakout remains intact . And when analyzing from a bird’s-eye view, the greenback’s recent weakness is largely inconsequential.Please see below:Moreover, please note that the correlation between the USD Index and gold is now strongly negative (-0.90 over the last 30 days) and it’s been the case for several weeks now. The same thing happened in early January 2021 and in late July – August 2020; these were major tops in gold.The bottom line?After regaining its composure , ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. In the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term.Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is doing (and likely to do) better than the Eurozone and Japan, and it’s this relative outperformance that matters , not the strength of just one single country or monetary area. After all, the USD Index is a weighted average of currency exchange rates and the latter move on a relative basis.In conclusion, ghouls, goblins and ghosts are popping up everywhere, and while the USD Index has been under investors’ negative spell, the curse may have just been broken. Moreover, with plenty of skeletons in the financial markets’ closet and liquidity slowly being drained from the system, the narrative of excessive money printing has become an old wives’ tale. More importantly, though, with