1. Markets primarily factor in rising inflation expectations and the lag in rate cuts as the dominant macroeconomic risk. This is driven by supply disruptions of oil stemming from failed US–Iran talks and the ongoing restructuring of global oil supply chains, which has left many Asian economies facing raw material shortages. This supply-side dynamic is crucial for the cryptocurrency market, as sustained high energy costs reinforce stubborn inflation, forcing central banks to keep restrictive monetary policy longer, which in turn pressures risky assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
2. Bitcoin’s weakness amid rising oil prices suggests a controlled reduction in financial leverage rather than a general risk aversion, while ETF funds and institutional cash‑market flows continue to grow despite uneven liquidity. Signals from different asset classes confirm this thesis, as liquidation cascades proceed in an orderly manner and blockchain data indicate that cash‑market purchases are shifting toward institutions, confirming that we are dealing with tactical position adjustments rather than a systemic flight from risk.
3. BTC prices remain steadily in the 68,000–73,000 dollar range, smoothing oil price swings in the macro market thanks to strong support from institutional investors. ETH follows this trend, staying in the 2,000–2,400 dollar range, while the market adjusts to higher energy costs without breaking key support levels.
Ryan Lee, Head Analyst at Bitget Research
