Yesterday’s summit in Washington resulted in a clearer roadmap for peace talks and some openness about security guarantees from the US. But the euro was offered as news flowed, perhaps on the view that the bulk of key territorial negotiations are still ahead of us. US macro developments remain a bigger driver for EUR/USD, which still faces upside risks
All eyes were on Washington yesterday, where Zelensky finally hit it off with the US President, raising hopes that peace could be on the horizon. The next step is to bring Putin to the negotiating table and find a durable solution. Peace has rarely felt so close.
This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, “Dow Jones Technical: Minor pull-back found support with bullish elements sighted in Caterpillar”, published on 4 August 2025.
The US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy for Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) has kicked off the anticipated bullish impulsive upswing from the 1 August 2025 minor swing low of 43,335.
Gold prices have rallied from an overnight low around the $3323/oz handle to a high of $3360/oz before settling around the $3350/oz mark.The precious metal looks set to continue its choppy price action at the start of a busy week.
The recovery in Gold from the overnight low could in part be down to lower US Treasury Yields with the benchmark 10Y US Treasury yield falling from its recent highs.
UK inflation was higher than expected in July, but given it was driven primarily by airfares, the Bank of England won’t be too concerned. A November rate cut hangs in the balance, though it remains our base case
US Treasuries traded heavy on Monday, on a day of complexities and different cross winds that makes interpretation tough. Bunds remain a good safe asset to hide for any US-driven turmoil, which can help keep yields close to swaps. Whilst we still see Bunds underperform swaps due to supply pressures, the room is more limited since 'Liberation Day'
Oil prices are lower this morning following Trump-Zelensky talks, with focus now turning to a possible meeting between the Ukrainian leader and Russian President Putin
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There were a few signals traders could have spotted ahead of the ongoing selloff.
After last Friday's warning from Bitcoin, with an all-time high leading to a direct retracement, the crypto market has started to make its way off its most recent highs.
Nasdaq and the broader tech sector are starting the week more cautiously, with overnight futures showing the Dow holding up relatively well against the more risk-sensitive Nasdaq.
(An informal invitation to consult our most recent analysis on the Dow)
USD/CAD advances in the US session, trading above the 100-day MA as the potential for further gains grows. There are of course headwinds for the pair which could scupper a move higher in the coming days.
The ongoing war in Russia has counterintuitively been one of the most significant bearish catalysts in the black gold– Russia floods the market of Oil to countries like India to sponsor its war, prompting threats from Trump.
The Trump-Zelenskyy meeting just concluded at around 15:00 ET, leaving place to the ongoing meeting between Trump and a flurry of EU leaders.
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