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RBNZ Set for August Rate Cut Amid Stable Inflation and Softening Labour Market
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp to 3.0% on 20 August. We expect to see indications that one final cut will follow, in line with market expectations and our own call. We retain a constructive view on NZD/USD, primarily on the back of expected USD weakness as the Fed restarts cutting
Global Markets Await Jackson Hole: Bonds Slide, Currencies Diverge, Central Banks in Focus
ile stocks continue to hit new highs, the worldwide sell-off in long-term government bonds is gathering pace. Rates actually rose more in nearly every G10 country than they did in the US last week, which certainly contributed to dollar weakness.
US Tariffs Weigh Heavily on European Exports Amid Rising Trade Pressures
On a day when all eyes are once again on the war in Ukraine and with another crucial meeting later today at the White House, just-released trade data serves as a good reminder of the adverse effects of the ongoing trade tensions.
Czech Producer Prices Show Mixed Trends as Food and Agriculture Drive Inflation Risks
The industry's annual price drop deepened in July, marking six consecutive months of negative price trends. Weak demand from key trading partners continues to weigh on prices for capital and intermediate goods, while consumer goods prices are still rising. Strong price activity in food production will further drive up the CPI
Markets Balance Geopolitical Hopes and Oil Bearish Trends Ahead of Jackson Hole
Friday's meeting between Trump and Putin seems to have gone smoothly. Details are scarce, but so far there are no signs of fresh tensions with Russia and no new sanctions on countries such as China and India that continue buying Russian oil. US crude opened the week with a gap lower but has since recovered part of its losses. Direction remains uncertain, though the absence of immediate stress is notable.
Oil and Gas Markets Weighed Down by Sanction Risks and Bearish Fundamentals
Oil opened lower this morning amid reduced concerns over tougher sanctions against Russia following the Trump-Putin summita
Three Key Challenges Facing Jay Powell at Jackson Hole
The great-and-the-good of the American central banking world are off to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference. And for Chair Jerome Powell, his appearance could hardly come at a more challenging moment. James Smith looks at the key questions facing the embattled Fed boss as financial markets brace for another fiery week to come
US Indices Maintain Bullish Momentum Amid AI Boom and Strong Earnings, Watching Key Technical
Yesterday's CPI report fueled even more fire to the ongoing relentless rally in US Equities. Up a respective 46% and 34% from their Liberation Day lows, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 keep beating expectations.
Polish Inflation Slows to 3.1% in July on Energy Price Drop, Paving Way for NBP Rate Cuts
Polish headline inflation has been confirmed at 3.1% YoY in July, from 4.1% YoY in June, as the effect of the partial unfreeze of energy prices in mid-2024 died out. With inflation within the tolerance band of the National Bank of Poland's target (2.5%, +/- 1ppt), the central bank now has room to continue its monetary easing cycle
DXY Weakens as Rate Cut Bets Rise Despite Mixed Technical Signals
The dollar dropped for the second day in a row on Wednesday. This came after U.S. inflation data raised hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, and President Donald Trump's push for lower rates added more pressure on the dollar.
Markets Mixed as Tech Hits Highs, Crypto Surges, and Ceasefire Talks Advance
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 13.
Flash GDP Data Confirms Modest 0.3% Growth Amid Weak Consumer Confidence and Mixed Sector Performance
Today’s flash GDP data has confirmed our forecast for the second quarter, with annual growth continuing to expand at a modest 0.3% pace. We don’t expect major improvements at this stage, with risks actually tilted to the downside, and we continue to expect a 0.3% advance for the full year in 2025
UK Q2 GDP Beats Expectations but Underlying Weakness Limits BoE Policy Impact
At face value, the UK's 0.3% second-quarter growth performance looks reasonable amid a flurry of global and domestic headwinds. But this is largely concentrated in components not intrinsically linked to underlying economic performance, and the Bank of England will take these figures with a pinch of salt. We expect growth to slow in the second half
USD Softens Ahead of PPI and Trump-Putin Summit as EUR Holds Momentum, CEE FX Outperforms
US Secretary Bessent said the Fed should cut by 50bp in September, and that rates are 150-175bp above where they should be. Markets aren’t considering a 50bp move as an option, and we doubt they will unless there are hints in that direction from Fed members or if the jobs data falls much further. Today, Norges Bank should hold rates, with some minor hawkish risk
Dovish Fed Bets Lift Global Equities as Markets Weigh Rate Cuts, Tariffs, and AI Growth
Investors spent Wednesday betting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would not only cut rates by 25bp in September but could even deliver a jumbo rate cut, after CPI data released the day before came in softer than analysts expected. Fed doves now see a huge opportunity for the central bank to focus on the slowing jobs market rather than tariff-led inflation risks that have yet to materialise.
Oil Falls Below $66 as Bearish Supply Outlook Weighs, Market Eyes Trump-Putin Meeting
Oil prices came under pressure yesterday after bearish supply/demand forecasts for the market. There’s also plenty of uncertainty heading into Friday’s Trump-Putin summit
US Core Inflation Pressures Challenge Treasuries Despite eSLR-Driven Demand Potential
Thursday likely sees US PPI core inflation back up to 3%, while core CPI inflation was confirmed earlier this week at 3.1%. In all probability these inflation rates will be on the rise in the coming months, and can easily touch 4%. We see, for example, how proposed eSLR changes are good for Treasuries. But Treasuries can't fully ignore evolving inflation data