The proposed recalibration of the enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which applies to Global Systemically Important Banks and their subsidiaries is open for public comment until 26 August 2025. Here we assess what it might mean. Even without special treatment for Treasuries, it has the capacity to meaningfully add banking influence to the market
A sharp plunge in industrial production data suggests that the initial signs of an inventory cycle turn were mainly driven by US frontloading rather than a genuine cyclical recovery. Industrial weakness looks set to continue
Poland’s external current account surplus in June was a positive surprise, as it was also driven by a positive balance in merchandise trade. One data reading does not necessarily signal a new trend – but it may suggest a change in underlying macro developments, especially softer domestic demanda
After a rough month of July taking the most traded Major pair from 1.1830 highs to a 4-handle correction, the NFP report at the beginning of the month led a huge wave of higher mean-reversion – An end-July daily double top on the pair had brought fresh technical fuel to sell the Euro.
This morning's US CPI report came almost exactly in line, and the fact that there wasn't much diversion from expectations led to traders decidedly pricing the 25 bps Cut for the Federal Reserve's September meeting.
Since the recent one-week slide of -5.8% seen on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) from 24 July 2025 high to 1 August 2025 low, its price actions have been choppy as markets grappled with US tariffs news flow and the possibility of an imminent US Federal Reserve dovish pivot in September.
This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, Chart of the day – Potential bullish acceleration for Silver (XAG/USD) published on 18 June 2025.
Silver (XAG/USD) has staged the expected rally of 7.1% from 18 June 2025 to hit the predefined resistance of US$39.08 (printed a 14-year high of US$39.53 on 23 July) before it staged a corrective decline of -8.39% to hit an intraday low of US$36.21 on 31 July 2025.
The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6551, up 0.33% on the day. The Aussie is trading at its highest levels since July 28, as the US dollar is showing signs of weakness against the major crurrencies.
Japan's Nikkei index hit a new milestone on Wednesday, crossing the 43,000 mark for the first time ever. The broader Topix index also reached a record high, following strong gains in Wall Street overnight and marking six straight days of growth.
The Polish economy grew by 3.4%YoY in the second quarter, compared to 3.2%YoY in the first quarter. While the flash estimate did not provide a breakdown of growth components, high-frequency indicators suggest continued expansion in the services sector, stagnation in industry, and a contraction in construction
US core inflation accelerated to 0.3% MoM in July, but markets don’t think that is enough to prevent a September Fed cut. That paves the way to more USD weakness, although some caution may prevail ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting. The market is adjusting expectations, but the risk still seems asymmetrical for CEE currencies
Yesterday, US inflation data was mixed, but the market reaction was not. Core inflation in the US posted its strongest gains this year, and the yearly figure accelerated more than expected to 3.1% in July.
Despite some short-term supportive factors for the market, oil prices continue to edge lower ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting
South Korea’s unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 2.5% in July, despite private sector hiring softening. Although weak domestic demand requires supportive macro policies, the BoK is likely to take a wait-and-see approach in August to see if property prices m
German 30-year yields are on the rise, with the curve hinting at more to come. German fiscal plans and Dutch pension fund reform are factors in play. The US is in a similar mode, with fiscal and CPI data followed by upward pressure on long yields
Inflation in the Netherlands continued its downward trajectory in July, dropping to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.8% in June. A sustained return to the 2% target is not in sight yet, however, as service inflation remains quite stubborn
Inflation in Romania rose sharply in July, reaching 7.8% - well above our forecast of 6.4%. The entire deviation stems from the energy sector, particularly electricity prices, which spiked by almost 62% versus the previous month. As a result, we have revised our year-end inflation estimate upward to 9.3%
The British pound is showing limited movement on Monday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3455, up 0.05% on the day.
The Bank of England is keeping a close eye on two key fronts as it charts a rate path - inflation and employment. The BoE lowered rates last week in a decision that raised a lot of eyebrows since it took an unprecedented two rounds of voting to reach the decision. The close 5-4 vote points to dissension among MPC members as how best to proceed.
The price actions of the Germany 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the DAX futures) have staged a corrective decline of 5% from its current all-time high of 24,655 on 10 July 2025 to 1 August 2025 intraday low of 23,385.
Several key technical elements are now advocating for a potential recovery to kickstart a new impulsive up move sequence within its major uptrend phase.
The US Dollar is starting the week on a steadier footing after lagging through much of last week, weighed down by a string of underwhelming US data releases.