The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.5%, reducing Japanese Government Bond purchases from 400bn yen to 200bn yen starting in April 2026. Governor Kazuo Ueda is cautious about US tariffs and their negative impact on investment and wages, while expressing no immediate concerns about inflation. We no longer expect a hike in the third quarter
China's May data was mixed with strong retail sales, but soft readings on fixed-asset investment and property price. Overall, though, data suggests that China remains on track to achieve its growth target in the first half of 2025
Geopolitical risks failed to update over the weekend and will remain central in FX price action. The dollar's rebound has been lacklustre, and while some support is warranted by the current market conditions, there'll still be a tendency to fade the rallies. A busy week for central banks should see cuts in Switzerland & Sweden, and holds in the UK & Norway
Czech industrial producer prices continued to decline on both an annual and monthly basis in May, keeping the outlook for industry rather calm. Meanwhile, pricing in the construction and service sectors has become more potent, which will keep consumer inflation above the central bank's target
UK GDP fell faster than expected in April, but these figures have been volatile lately owing to tariff frontloading, coupled with some possible issues with seasonal adjustment. After a strong first quarter, a weaker jobs market and economic uncertainty point to more muted growth rates for the remainder of this year
It’s been a hectic April as the whirlwind of tariff news after Trump’s 'Liberation Day' announcement consumed markets. As we have reached a period of relative calm, it’s a good time to reflect on the developments of the last month and how they have impacted the USD/CNY, which has come full circle this month
Eurozone industrial production dropped sharply in April, partly wiping out the front-loading surge of the first quarter
A further escalation in Iranian-Israeli tensions could take oil prices above $80 and would mean more upside for the dollar. The Federal Reserve was already likely to keep rates on hold through the third quarter and the latest developments only reinforce that.
The downward revision of May's CPI off the back of lower core inflation increases the likelihood that the National Bank of Poland may kick off its monetary easing cycle at its upcoming meeting in July. The picture should be a lot clearer in September, though, so it's a close call. We'll be keeping a close eye on any communication from the central bank.
Renewable natural gas is set to be in more demand in the coming years to help reduce emissions and diversify energy supply chains. Supported by policy and customer willingness to pay, the market is expected to nearly triple in Europe and more than double in the US by 2030. Despite this growth, challenges remain around policy streamlining and innovation
Despite legal challenges to IEEPA tariffs, US trade policy remains firm. Tariffs on steel and aluminium have doubled, and new sectoral tariffs are expected. Trade deals may emerge, but most will be symbolic. Effective tariff rates will stay high throughout 2025
It's not every day I compare the global economy to Tom Cruise's blockbuster movies. But amid the noise, the stunts and the audience's appreciation and shock, this is a plot worth following
The euro’s outlook remains tied to developments on US tariffs and on Ukraine peace talks. EUR/USD took a hit late Friday after the Trump-Zelenskyy incident, but has rebounded since trading resumed on Sunday evening – perhaps on the news that Ukraine remains open to a mineral deal with the US and that the EU is actively trying to bring the US back to the negotiating table with Ukraine.
As markets assess the implications of the Zelenskyy-Trump clash on Friday, the focus today is whether US tariffs on Mexico and Canada will go ahead. The FX market is not pricing in 25% duties as a base case, and still leans in favour of either smaller tariffs or another last minute deal. Downside risks for CAD and MXN are therefore sizeable.
Rates Spark: The glass half empty trade. The drivers of Doge, Bessent and SLR have been added to in the guise of weaker consumer confidence and a ratchet down in expectations for the terminal rate. This market is now considering the possible downsides ahead. Can it last? Well yes for a bit. But we are constrained to the downside for yields, until or unless we seriously contemplate a recession of sorts
Arabica coffee prices fell for a third consecutive session yesterday, as persistent growth in certified stockpiles overcame supply concerns -- at least temporarily.
COMEX copper futures surged after President Donald Trump ordered the US Commerce Department to investigate possible import tariffs on copper.
The Commodities Feed: European gas sell-off continues. Oil prices are largely under pressure amid demand concerns, while the European gas market continues to sell off aggressively.
National Bank of Hungary Review: A hawkish swan song. The National Bank of Hungary kept interest rates on hold in February for the fifth consecutive month. This comes as little surprise given the overriding pro-inflationary risk, which has been well-flagged by the monetary council. Forward guidance points to a stable policy rate ahead
Chinese policymakers are expected to maintain last year's growth target to signal confidence in growth stabilisation, and we expect a greater focus on boosting domestic demand this year
European currencies remain reasonably supported and are taking the Ukraine mineral agreement as a positive and very possibly some kind of move towards a US security guarantee.
FX Daily: Refocus on fiscal proving dollar supportive. The dollar has found a little support overnight after the House passed a budget blueprint bill laying the groundwork for President Trump's tax-cutting agenda. The focus on fiscal might buy a little time for the dollar and distract from weaker consumer activity until the tariff agenda comes back into focus next week. USD/CAD is now the epicentre of tariffs
Sustainable Finance: Paint it Green. Green is the colour! We expect sustainable finance issuance to grow in 2025, with fast-approaching interim decarbonisation targets and continuous standardisation driving global growth. This is despite headwinds from the changing political landscape.
After a very quiet week, the local story is back in focus for markets. Today, we will see retail sales in Poland for January. Goods spending remains subdued, but has improved after a poor third quarter.
The UK published on Friday data showing a net public sector surplus of £15.4bn in January, which fell short of the £20bn estimated by the Office for Budget Responsibility in October alongside the Budget.
The German election results were broadly in line with opinion polls. The CDU/CSU is the leading party with 29%, followed by the far-right AfD at 21% and the SPD at 16%.
Germany voted over the weekend, and the results are broadly in line with expectations. The euro got a small boost from the CDU/CSU being able to form a coalition only with the SPD, without any smaller third party. There’s a lot on the table for markets this week, and we expect plenty of noise in FX.
While Germany is still digesting and debating Sunday's election results, the latest Ifo index reading suggests that the economy remains stuck in stagnation.
The EU’s vision on Agriculture and Food is clearly farmer-centric. But what's in the document – and equally, what isn't – provides valuable guidance for food manufacturers, traders and retailers about the direction of EU policy towards 2040. With limited guidance on how to achieve emission cuts, the Commission remains open to a range of solutions
We believe interest rates will remain unchanged at the next Monetary Council meeting, the final one under Governor György Matolcsy. This time, macroeconomic factors will play a key role in the decision-making process due to the deteriorating inflation outlook
Recent positive data surprises for the eurozone have improved macro sentiment and the PMI readings today will be watched. The downside risk for the front end of the curve is relatively limited, though. On Sunday we have German elections. Even if a majority is found for debt reforms, the impact of the actual reforms risks being overestimated
The dollar has given up all its gains for the week as soft data and US earnings seem to be casting doubts on the notion of US exceptionalism. The yen is the big winner, receiving extra help from hawkish inflation data overnight. We wouldn’t chase the dollar decline much further, though
The PMI indicates stabilising economic activity, but declining new orders and hiring reveal a weak short-term outlook despite stock market optimism on E
With one more week to go until Election Day, the second tv debate brought the candidates of the four largest parties together in a sometimes heated discussion. The debate is unlikely to have significantly moved the needle but in these elections small shifts can make a big difference
Governments on both sides of the Atlantic are turning on the taps when it comes to fiscal stimulus. But will that really propel growth and interest rates higher, like we saw after the Covid pandemic? James Smith isn’t so convinced. Buckle up as our team guides you through another big week for marke
