US markets turned slightly bullish into quarter-end – and the government shutdown. As a result, key directional cues from official data around jobs and prices will be delayed. Eurozone preliminary inflation data is unlikely to provide markets with more clarity on the direction of travel
The US administration is poised to announce a new round of “reciprocal” tariffs on 2 April after imposing a range of tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, a separate set of tariffs on steel, aluminum, and derivative products, and newly announced levies on autos and auto parts.
We expect Trump’s reciprocal tariffs to impact Vietnam, India, China, Taiwan and Thailand the most among EM Asian economies. The hit on growth might be stronger for Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand, given their relatively larger exposure to trade with the US (as measured as a % of GDP).
The 25% steel and aluminium tariffs have hit the UK too today but the UK government is reportedly working hard to receive a carve-out from the tariff action. UK Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds held a call with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Sunday about a possible carve-out and PM Starmer brought up the subject when he met President Trump last month.
Unlike previous US trade memoranda, the proposed action to tackle China’s dominance in maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding is different. It could lift port call fees or cause inefficiencies in supply lines, affecting US importers, exporters, and consumers.
