Global markets are trading in a slightly nervous fashion as they brace themselves for a potential correction in US tech stocks. So far, the correction has been modest compared to the 25% fall in bitcoin, but events over the next 24 hours will have a say in whether moves extend. We'll have FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings and the September jobs reporta
Oil prices moved higher yesterday amid lingering supply risks, and a stronger diesel market lent additional support
Equities jitters have helped to steepen curves, though all within prior ranges and a 10y UST yield above 4%. As 10y Bunds richen versus swaps, the swap rate remains near the upper end of its range while the back end is sensitive to Dutch pension fund news. Meanwhile, latest TIC data show decent buying of US assets, including foreign demand for Treasuries
Tepid pricing in the industry and weakening price dynamics in agriculture are a downward risk for consumer prices. If consumer spending remains steady, inflation is likely to hover around the target over the upcoming year. A combination of factors might result in a low-inflation environment
Gilt yields jumped after reports the UK government was scrapping plans to raise income tax, casting fresh doubt over how a £30bn gap will be plugged. We expect about half to come from upfront tax hikes, so yields may not climb much further. If we’re wrong, blame the politic
The souring in risk sentiment before tomorrow’s Nvidia earnings is hitting high-beta currencies and offering some support to the dollar ahead of Thursday’s September jobs reports. The yen is being held back by escalating tensions between China and Japan, as well as soft data and speculative flows testing the intervention threshold
Wage growth was slightly higher than expected in September. This growth in purchasing power could overcome the Hungarian economy’s Achilles heel: a lack of confidence. In the coming months, inflation will fall and wages will grow strongly
We're not overly concerned about tightness in US repo of late. It does show that the liquidity environment is uneven. It appears that eligible standing repo participants don't need it, as there are minimal asks for it. Frustrating for the Fed, as it sees the effective funds rate creeping higher. T-bill buying from 1 December is far from perfect. But it will do
At a calm press briefing, the National Bank of Romania unveiled its November Inflation Report, announcing upward revisions to its inflation trajectory. The overall message conveyed stability, indicating that the Bank remains on a steady course despite the higher projections
October inflation was confirmed at 2.8%YoY while core inflation likely moderated to 2.9%YoY from 3.2%YoY in September, driven by softer services prices as businesses face demand constraints. Disinflation is now reaching the services sector, which is a positive sign for monetary policy and gives room for more rate cuts in the coming quarters
Next week, we’ll be watching for September’s delayed US jobs report and the release of October's more hawkish Fed minutes, which could dampen hopes for a December rate cut. We also expect the National Bank of Hungary to hold rates while signalling they’ll remain high for some time, with the release of Czech PPI data also due
Romania’s economy delivered a mild upside surprise in the third quarter. The flash estimate points to 1.6% annual growth, above our expectations, although it still contracted by 0.2% versus the previous quarter. Taken together, after nine months of 2025, the economy is 0.8% above the same period of 2024
The drop in USD this week seems to be linked to expectations that US data will come in soft. But hearing Fed speakers, the move seems a bit premature, even if it looks like we could get September payrolls data soon. In the UK, the government is scrapping its income tax hike plans. GBP downside risks have suddenly increased
Euro rates are near the top of their ranges again. We don't expect the front-end to remain a driver, with now only a 30% chance of an ECB cut priced down the road despite remaining risks around the outlook. Dutch pension reforms appear to help push the 10s30s steeper as dynamics detach from the US curve
Earlier this summer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised a 'Fall of reforms'. This week, the government moved to accelerate decision-making, unveiling a fresh set of policy announcements within just the past 24 hours
Bank Indonesia and the People’s Bank of China are both expected to maintain current interest rate levels. Key releases include Japan's GDP, trade figures, and inflation, Taiwan's export orders and Singapore's GDP
China's key activity indicators continued to slow across the board in October as policymakers appear to be delaying further policy support. This year's growth target is likely to require minimal additional support to be reached, but supportive policies will be necessary to achieve long-term goals
Oil prices managed to edge higher yesterday, despite several bearish data releasesa
This more than compensates for August’s fall, confirming that summer data has to be interpreted with a pinch of salt. Italy's industrial stagnation is not over yet, but the picture might improve marginally over the fourth quarter
Romanian Inflation eased marginally in October to 9.8% versus September’s 9.9%. Declines in some food prices provided relief, but services inflation remains tricky. Wage growth slowed to just 4.1% in September, acting as a clear drag on demand. We maintain our year-end inflation forecasts at 9.6% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026