THINK Ahead in developed markets
United States (James Knightley)
- The government shutdown may be over, but it will take some time before everything returns to normal. It will likely take many days or even weeks for federal workers to receive back pay and benefits recipients to receive payments. It will also take time for the economic data release calendar to get back on track, but we stand a decent chance of getting the long-delayed September jobs report at some point next week. That is set to be soft based on third-party survey evidence, such as the ISM employment indicators and the ADP private payrolls series.
- We will get the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October FOMC meeting, which are set to have a hawkish take on the situation, given Chair Jerome Powell’s assessment in the press conference that we shouldn’t take a December interest rate cut as a forgone conclusion – “far from it” in fact. In terms of the data, we will also receive existing home sales numbers and the National Association of Homebuilders’ sentiment survey. Both are likely to be subdued, given that affordability remains heavily constrained by elevated prices and high mortgage rates.
THINK Ahead in Central and Eastern Europe
Hungary (Peter Virovacz)
- Rate setting meeting (Tue): When it comes to economic policies in Hungary, it's a case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. Fiscal policy has just hit the 'ease' button, so we expect monetary policy to remain as hawkish as possible to counterbalance the pro-inflationary risk. The fiscal targets increased for 2025 and 2026 are much higher than those used by the central bank in its base case scenario in the latest inflation report. Meanwhile, the strengthening of the forint is yielding visible results, helping to ease pressure on food and durable goods inflation. Therefore, we believe that the Monetary Council will maintain the current interest rates and communicate that high rates will persist in the foreseeable future due to mounting pro-inflationary risks on the monetary policy horizon.
Czech Republic (David Havrlant)
- PPI (Tue): We expect that pricing in Czech industry remained under pressure in October, predominantly due to tepid external demand. At the same time, subdued Brent Crude prices and a stronger koruna against the euro dampened input costs.
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