We expect Trump’s reciprocal tariffs to impact Vietnam, India, China, Taiwan and Thailand the most among EM Asian economies. The hit on growth might be stronger for Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand, given their relatively larger exposure to trade with the US (as measured as a % of GDP).
• Overnight news: UST Secretary Bessent said “not worried about the markets”; US strikes Houthis; Chinese economic data beats; China to announce steps to revive spending; US President Trump to speak to Russia President Putin Tuesday
• Data and events: US retail sales
• UK Economic: Welfare spending in the crosshairs ahead of Spring Statement
Stocks advanced as cooler-than- expected inflation data helped stanch a sharp selloff, while the escalation of U.S. President Donald Trump's chaotic, multi-front tariff war kept gains in check.
US equity market recorded the steepest daily losses since mid-December and USD depreciated notably as President Trump confirmed that import tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will go up, and a weaker manufacturing survey added to market concerns about wakening US growth.
Concerns over the US growth outlook were amplified by Friday’s weak consumer spending data. Nevertheless, a recovery in tech stocks led US equity prices higher. Government bond yields were lower, as market pricing for the fed funds rate switched to price in more interest rates cuts this year.
