US tariffs

Commodities Move on Geopolitics and Weather as Oil Rises, Gas Falls, and Nickel Faces Supply Risks

Oil prices rose yesterday, in step with a global equity rally. However, peace talks remain a crucial area of uncertainty for the market

German Exports Rebound in September but Structural Headwinds Persist

Today's data is more evidence of the small rebound of the German economy after the summer. However, the September increase in exports is too weak to dispel concerns about persistent structural weakness

South Korea’s Export Momentum Remains Solid Despite Slowdown in October

South Korean exports increased in October despite fewer working days due to the Chuseok holiday. US tariffs had a clear negative effect, but robust semiconductor and vessel exports offset the impact. With the trade agreement concluded, improved export conditions are expected to support growth in 2026

Japan’s Trade Rebound and BoJ Watch: Exports Strengthen Amid US Tariff Headwinds

Japanese exports recovered mostly in line with market expectations. We cautiously expect US-bound exports to stabilise after the recent trade deal. Stronger-than-expected imports indicate continued investment in AI and semiconductors, supporting growth in the fourth quarter

Switzerland Faces Trade War Fallout as US Tariffs Threaten Key Export Sectors

Switzerland’s economy is under significant pressure due to the imposition of US tariffs on Swiss exports. As such, we have revised down our GDP growth forecasts

Taiwan’s Exports Stay Resilient Despite Tariffs; Strong US and Mexico Demand Offsets Semiconductor Slowdown

Taiwan's export growth has been rather dependent on demand from the US. Fortunately, the tariff hikes in August do not appear to be having a significant impact on Taiwan's exports to the US, at least not yet

ECB Minutes Signal Rates on Hold Amid Uncertainty, but Dovish Risks Remain

The just-released minutes of the ECB’s September meeting show a unanimous decision to keep interest rates on hold, viewing this approach as the most appropriate response to ongoing elevated uncertainty

RBA Bullock Flags Inflation and Trade Risks, AUD/USD Eyes Key Support Levels

The Australian dollar is coming off its best week since July, with gains of close to 1%. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6589, down 0.07% on the day.

Bullock says inflation in good place but China a concern

Eurozone Exports Weaken as US Tariffs Bite and Global Demand Softens

The eurozone's trade balance edged up slightly in July, driven mainly by a drop in imports, while exports also declined modestly. Excluding the energy crisis period, this marks one of the smallest trade surpluses in the past decade

FX Outlook: Dollar Seasonality, Euro CPI Focus, Yen Support, CEE Growth

The dollar has found a little support at the start of the week. Chinese authorities have now turned to fixing USD/CNY a little higher, which removes one of the dollar's negative impulses from last week. The highlight of an otherwise quiet session will be today's eurozone flash CPI release for August and the US ISM business confidence data

South Korea: Solid Exports Amid Tariff Pressures, Expansionary Fiscal Shift Ahead

Strong global demand for AI boosted Korean exports in August while clearer signs of negative impact of US tariffs emerged. Looking forward, fiscal policy is likely to support growth in 2026, mitigating weak external demand and tariff shocks

South Korea’s Economy Shows Mixed Signals: Strong Retail and Investment, but Auto Sector Hit by

South Korean manufacturing output, retail sales, and investment increased in July. As fiscal stimulus kicks in, activity is expected to strengthen further in the third quarter. But the boost could prove temporary as tariff headwinds curb exports and increase odds of a Bank of Korea rate cut

German Inflation Ticks Higher, Weakening the ECB’s Case for a September Cut

An uptick in German inflation suggests that the risk of significant inflation undershooting is still more than overdone. At the same time, the increase weakens the case for an ECB rate cut at the September meeting

Oil Boosts NOK as USD Weakens; Markets Watch China Tariffs and PMIs

Hopes for a swift resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have proven vain. Discussions between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy yielded no breakthrough, with market expectations for a 2025 ceasefire dropping from around 40% to below 25%.

Swiss Growth Slows Amid Trade Tensions; AUD and NZD Diverge on Central Bank Moves

The Swiss franc recovered some of its losses last week. Economic data continues to point to disruptions from Trump’s upending of global trade. After a jump in June, real exports sank in July (-2.7% MoM). US-bound exports rose 1.1%, as buyers raced against time to avoid paying steep levies on products such as watches or machinery.

Euro Gains Amid Stable ECB Policy, BoE Inflation Surprises, and Hawkish BoJ

Eurozone economic data for the first half of the year has been distorted by US tariffs.

Germany’s Ifo Index Rises, but Fiscal Stimulus Remains the Key to Recovery

The ongoing improvement in business sentiment reflects the strong belief in the healing nature of fiscal stimulus

Germany Back in the Danger Zone: Growth Stalls Amid Tariffs and Stagnation

A full reversal of previous US front-loading effects has pushed the German economy back into recessionary territory, and it looks increasingly unlikely that any substantial recovery will materialise before 2026

Powell Set to Turn Dovish; Dollar Faces Pressure, EUR/USD Outlook Remains Positive

Earlier in August, we published our monthly FX update. That was centred around the view that the last line of defence for the dollar – a resilient jobs market – had started to capitulate with large payrolls revisions. In this note, we discuss our latest thinking and why we are looking for 1.20+ levels through 2026

US Tariffs Weigh Heavily on European Exports Amid Rising Trade Pressures

On a day when all eyes are once again on the war in Ukraine and with another crucial meeting later today at the White House, just-released trade data serves as a good reminder of the adverse effects of the ongoing trade tensions.

Poland Posts Surprise Current Account Surplus in June Amid Trade and Export Shifts

Poland’s external current account surplus in June was a positive surprise, as it was also driven by a positive balance in merchandise trade. One data reading does not necessarily signal a new trend – but it may suggest a change in underlying macro developments, especially softer domestic demanda

Australian Wage Growth Holds Steady, US Core Inflation Surprises to the Upside

The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6551, up 0.33% on the day. The Aussie is trading at its highest levels since July 28, as the US dollar is showing signs of weakness against the major crurrencies.

Global Markets Stabilize Amid Tariff Tensions, Yuan Shift, and Bond Market Volatility

• Nikkei +6% as Japan and US intensify trade discussions before 24% reciprocal tariff comes into effect tomorrow. Commodity FX recovers led by AUD. US 10y settles at 4.17% after rollercoaster 24 hours, 200dma at 4.22% (200dma). 10y Bund +1bp at 2.62%.   

European Financials and Industrials: Navigating Earnings Risk Amid Tariff and Rate Volatility

 The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down 12% since the close on 2 April, prior to the announcements of US tariffs and subsequent retaliatory measures. We update our estimated net income sensitivity to market declines, as originally set out in our 2025 outlook: Quid games (published 6 January 2025).

Markets Rebound Ahead of US Tariff Announcement Amid Investor Caution

Stocks closed higher after a choppy trading session, falling early and then  rebounding as investors made last- minute bets to position themselves  ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff announcements due later in the day.

Markets Rally Ahead of Tariff Rollout Amid Economic Data Releases

Stocks ended higher ahead of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement. Treasury yields rose following the private payrolls and manufacturing data. The dollar fell against major currencies, while gold climbed on safe-haven demand. Oil prices edged higher. 

Global Markets Rattle as US Reciprocal Tariffs Take Effect

Latest round of tariffs will come into effect on 5 and 9 April. Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States from 5 April. For countries with which the United States has the biggest trade deficits, higher, individualised reciprocal tariffs will take effect on 9 April.

Turkish Lira Under Pressure: Political Risks and Monetary Policy Challenges

The EM market has been in standby mode with high uncertainties ahead of the US tariff announcement at 16:00 ET on 2 April. The EM market seems to have partially priced in the US tariffs, but there could be more market reactions when the details are released.

Estimating Nikkei’s Fair Value Amid Economic Uncertainty and US Tariffs

The Nikkei Index can be estimated using nominal GDP, net domestic fund demand (corporate savings rate + fiscal balance), Abenomics dummy and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. For the current Q225, if we place nominal GDP at around JPY624trn and net domestic fund demand at +1.3%, and assume that global uncertainty continues, the macro fair value would be around JPY34,800, roughly in line with the prevailing Nikkei index

US Set to Announce New Round of Reciprocal Tariffs Amid Global Trade Tensions

The US administration is poised to announce a new round of “reciprocal” tariffs on 2 April after imposing a range of tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, a separate set of tariffs on steel, aluminum, and derivative products, and newly announced levies on autos and auto parts. 

Tesla Surges on Tariff Speculation; US Probes Ford F-150 Trucks

Tesla shares surged after this year's steep decline following reports the Trump administration is likely to exclude a set of sector-specific tariffs while applying reciprocal levies on April 2. Traders also took advantage of the near 40% decline in the stock so far this year to buy into the EV maker.

Markets Rally as Tariff Fears Ease; Dollar Strengthens, Gold Slip

Stocks closed sharply higher and Treasury yields climbed after reports that President Donald Trump's tariff plan may use a more targeted approach than previously thought, boosting risk appetite. The dollar strengthened as U.S. business activity picked up in March, pushing gold lower. Oil prices were up on Venezuela oil and gas tariffs. 

US Tariff Uncertainty Drives Market Volatility Across Assets

Hopes and fears surrounding US tariffs continue to keep the market on its toes. Yesterday, the hope that the next wave of US tariffs would finally be more limited and targeted, combined with a very solid US services ISM report, fuelled a rebound by US risk assets (led by US techs) and the US dollar, and pushed US bond yields higher in a pro-growth configuration.

US Reciprocal Tariffs. Trade Imbalance and Tariff Differentials as Key Factors

We expect Trump’s reciprocal tariffs to impact Vietnam, India, China, Taiwan and Thailand the most among EM Asian economies. The hit on growth might be stronger for Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand, given their relatively larger exposure to trade with the US (as measured as a % of GDP).

US to Announce Reciprocal and Sectoral Tariffs on 2 April, Impacting Asian Economies

• US President Donald Trump has pledged to announce reciprocal tariffs as well as tariffs on specific goods on 2 April. 
• Vietnam, India, China, Taiwan and Thailand would likely be more vulnerable to potential reciprocal tariffs. Singapore, Malaysia and Korea, followed by Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand are exposed to sector-specific tariffs. 

CNY Stability: Flattening USD/CNY Forecast Amid Rising Tariff Risks

Despite a volatile fortnight in global FX markets, USD/Asia has stood out for its relatively stability with most pairs moving within a 0-1.5% range. 

Global Markets React to US Tariffs and Central Bank Moves

The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium announced by Donald Trump in February came into force on Wednesday. They affect a number of countries, but in particular Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Germany and several Asian countries.

European Equities Gain Momentum Amid Shifting Global Market Dynamics

During the course of 4Q24, European 12M forward earnings estimates started to improve, while they softened slightly in the US after increasing by 13% in 2024, as Chart 2 shows. This was largely driven by expectations of gradually increasing growth in Europe, while growth rates in the US are expected to slow slightly.

Shifting Investment Strategies: Japanese Lifers, Toshins, and Foreign Flows

Life insurance companies (lifers) net sold JPY216bn ($1.4bn) of foreign bonds inFebruary, marking net selling of foreign bonds for four consecutive months (Fig. 6 ), but the size remains smaller than in 2022, when they markedly decreased their exposure to foreign bonds.

Japanese Investment Trends: GPIF, Foreign Flows, and Bond Market Shifts

What do Germany's fiscal plans mean for investors?

Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced plans for a major increase in defense and infrastructure spending. If passed by the German parliament, the plans would mark a significant fiscal shift that has the potential to boost growth and support Eurozone assets.

US-China Tariffs and CNY Stability: Navigating USD/Asia Risks

The US has added 10% tariffs on China twice this year, and, contrary to expectations that tariffs should result in a weaker CNY, spot USD/CNY has drifted lower from 7.33 pre-inauguration to around 7.25 currently. We attribute this to a few factors. The broad USD itself has weakened, Chinese asset markets outlook has improved, and most importantly the CNY fix (which is a policy signal tool) has been stable at around 7.17, thereby restraining the movement in spot USD/CNY. 

ECB's Tightrope Walk: Easing Rates Amid Slowing Eurozone Growth

Yesterday, the ECB lowered its GDP forecasts for this year and next, confirming a downward trend in forecast revisions.US tariffs and fiscal stimulus in Germany represent opposing risks for GDP trajectory. 

Italy’s Budget Deficit Shrinks, Easing Debt Concerns Amid Slower Growth

Italy’s primary balance for 2024 proved to be better than expected, mitigating the increase in the public-debt ratio.  

Markets Rally as Germany Plans Defense Spending Boost; Oil Drops on OPEC+ Supply News

US equity market recorded the steepest daily losses since mid-December and USD depreciated notably as President Trump confirmed that import tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will go up, and a weaker manufacturing survey added to market concerns about wakening US growth. 

US-Ukraine Talks Stall, Tariffs Loom: FX Market Prepares for a Pivotal Week

As markets assess the implications of the Zelenskyy-Trump clash on Friday, the focus today is whether US tariffs on Mexico and Canada will go ahead. The FX market is not pricing in 25% duties as a base case, and still leans in favour of either smaller tariffs or another last minute deal. Downside risks for CAD and MXN are therefore sizeable.

EURGBP Outlook. Tariff Risks, Stagflation, and Carry Appeal Shape the Future

• As we had expected, the EURGBP spike in January—which was sparked by UK-idiosyncratic risks—has reversed, and we expect the pair to edge lower over the year toward 0.82. 

Nvidia, Musk, and Key Corporate Moves Shape Market Sentiment

Nvidia's upbeat quarterly forecast signaled that the AI boom is not over, but it failed to bring buyers back into the "Magnificent Seven" stocks that have dipped in the last three months.

Canada's Stock Index Rises as Bank Earnings Offset Oil Decline

Canada's main stock index ended higher as stronger-than-expected bank earnings offset a drop in oil prices and worries about the growth prospects for high-flying technology shares. 

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.21% to close at 25,203.98. 

Heavily-weighted financials gained  0.81% to 484.70. 

GBP Under Pressure Ahead of UK Budget and BoE Speaker Insights

The UK published on Friday data showing a net public sector surplus of £15.4bn in January, which fell short of the £20bn estimated by the Office for Budget Responsibility in October alongside the Budget.

EUR Reacts Positively to German Election Result, But US Tariffs and ECB Stance Weigh on EUR/USD

The German election results were broadly in line with opinion polls. The CDU/CSU is the leading party with 29%, followed by the far-right AfD at 21% and the SPD at 16%.

Germany's Coalition Dilemma. CDU's Path to Power Amid Economic Stagnation and Geopolitical Tensions

While Germany is still digesting and debating Sunday's election results, the latest Ifo index reading suggests that the economy remains stuck in stagnation.