The oil market opened higher in the early trading session today following a modest output hike from OPEC+ for November 2025. Meanwhile, gold continued its rally to new record highs amid the prolonged US shutdown
The US government remains shut, which means the BLS will likely not release the September jobs report this Friday. Yesterday's ADP numbers, however, injected a strong dose of dovishness to keep investors going for a few days longer.
The US government has shut down from today as politicians failed to agree on a plan to continue funding it. This is not the first time this has happened, and it certainly won't be the last.
US Treasuries traded heavy on Monday, on a day of complexities and different cross winds that makes interpretation tough. Bunds remain a good safe asset to hide for any US-driven turmoil, which can help keep yields close to swaps. Whilst we still see Bunds underperform swaps due to supply pressures, the room is more limited since 'Liberation Day'
Stocks closed higher after a choppy trading session, falling early and then rebounding as investors made last- minute bets to position themselves ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff announcements due later in the day.
Markets are pricing in risks of tariffs with diverging movements across regions and asset classes.
Tariffs risks saw US and Asian equities retreat while European equities outperformed.
However, most G10 currencies outperformed the USD. Commodity- linked currencies like the CAD, AUD and NOK performed best.
Wall Street plunged and Treasury yields fell on recession fears, triggered by relentless tariff wrangling and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies. Economic growth and demand concerns weighed on oil prices too. The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. Gold dropped on profit booking.
