The risk mood has darkened a little this week, with some sizeable corrections emerging in some equity markets. There has not been one catalyst per se, but lofty valuations must be leading to some profit-taking in uncertain conditions. For today, it's all about the US ADP jobs release and what it means for the December Fed meeting. Expect FX to stay defensive
FX markets are struggling to find direction this week. The Fed’s doubts on whether to cut in December naturally increase scrutiny of data: this means both depressed volatility during data silence and some potential exacerbation of USD reaction to any labour indicator (like tomorrow’s ADP). Our call remains that the dollar is close to its peak
Spot gold extended its rally to top $4,000/oz for the first time this morning, as concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown boost demand for safe havens
