risk factors

EURGBP Outlook. Tariff Risks, Stagflation, and Carry Appeal Shape the Future

• As we had expected, the EURGBP spike in January—which was sparked by UK-idiosyncratic risks—has reversed, and we expect the pair to edge lower over the year toward 0.82. 

GBPCHF Outlook. Strong Carry Appeal Amidst Risk-Driven Shifts and Trade Uncertainty

• Following the January dip, the GBPCHF has been testing the upper bound of its trading range over the last six months. We expect the currency pair to stay largely range bound in the coming months.