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USD Overvaluation Persists as Geopolitics Dominate and JPY Faces Intervention Risks
A December Fed cut is back as a baseline scenario for markets, but the dollar has remained relatively strong. Our short-term valuation metrics point to significant risks of a USD correction, unless data prompts a hawkish repricing. Geopolitics will remain in focus, both for European FX (Ukraine peace talks) and the yen (Japan-China tensions over Taiwan)
